Derby Rankings: Week 1
Welcome to the 2022 Derby Rankings. There is a lot to calculate, with a new twist thrown in regarding the Bob Baffert-trained horses, as you will read. There also are some new guidelines, which you’ll also read about in Knocking on the Door. We’ve started off with a Sweet Sixteen, and that will fluctuate between 12 and 15 from now on depending on the week’s activities and how many horses step up and earn a ranking. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Jan. 17, 2022 – Week 1
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Run Happy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
There is very little separating him from stablemate Rattle N Roll. He gets the top spot because he’s about four works ahead of him and he has been flawless, checking off every box. Yes, I know he’s by Run Happy, a pure sprinter who has not sired any classic type horses so far, but Run Happy actually is bred for distance and Smile Happy’s female family is one of the strongest classic and distance families I have ever seen. With names like Pleasant Tap, Pleasant Colony, full-brothers His Majesty and Graustark, inbreeding to Ribot and the great producer Flower Bowl, Stage Door Johnny, Relaunch, In Reality, and Bravura, the fifth dam of Empire Maker and Funny Cide, you’re not going to find more classic breeding in any female family. But what puts Smile Happy on top is purely visual. He settles beautifully, can take the rail route or get caught four-wide on the far turn. He displayed the most explosive turn of foot in his 1 1/16-mile maiden win I saw all year, as he slingshot himself between horses in what track announcer Kurt Becker called “a breathtaking move.” He changes leads perfectly, he carries his legs under him perfectly and is extremely light on his feet and runs perfectly straight down the stretch. This is the consummate pro. Finally, he ran a strong “7 ¼” Thoro-Graph number in his debut and then catapulted to a “2” in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which was 2 ½ points faster than the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s been working with stablemate Tiz the Bomb and the pair went a half in :46 1/5 on Saturday, faster than McPeek wanted. He is pointing both to the Holy Bull Stakes February 5.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
Chad Brown rarely will stretch a horse out from a single six-furlong maiden race to a Grade 2 stakes at 1 1/8 miles. But when Zandon missed the Nashua Stakes he was forced to give it a shot and Zandon ran an amazing race in defeat, stamping himself as something special. Many, myself included, felt he should have been put up after being bumped several times and crowded into the rail by the nose winner Mo Donegal, who was more experienced, having run twice and won going 1 1/16 miles. But it was the way he fought back after being passed, despite the long stretch out, and the near 10-length gap to the third horse that is important in terms of the Derby. His “4 ½” Thoro-Graph figure was 1 ½ points faster than the winner. He was the subject of one of my Derby sleeper columns based on his maiden victory, in which he demonstrated push-button acceleration, a flawless stride, and showed the professionalism of a veteran, dealing with kickback and traffic. Brown called him “freaky good” and I’m certainly not going to downplay that comment after seeing what he has accomplished in only two races.
3—Rattle N Roll (Ken McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
He has had to overcome being scratched after a horse in McPeek’s Saratoga barn, trained by Jose Abreu, came down with equine herpesvirus, which prevented all horses in that barn from racing for 21 days and training with the other horses. When he finally was able to run he bolted on the turn after moving like a winner. But when he finally put all that behind him he quickly became a serious horse with a ton of ability. In his next start, he ducked out slightly at the start and got creamed by the horse on his outside who came in on him. He then was trapped the entire run down the backstretch and around the turn with no place to go, while being caught behind a very slow pace. After straightening into the stretch there was an opening on the inside he quickly shot through and in a flash was gone. Running straight as the proverbial arrow this time and striding out beautifully with great extension, he drew off to a three-length victory without being touched with the whip and then just kept pouring it on with a monster gallop-out, leaving the others far behind. Jumping into Grade 1 company in the Breeders’ Futurity, he demolished 12 opponents with one of the most explosive moves on the turn seen all year. Once again he surged past everyone in a flash and drew off to win by 4 ¼ lengths. To demonstrate how strong his race was and how much improvement he had shown, his Thoro-Graph figures jumped from a slow “16” to a mediocre “10 ½” to a “3 ½,” which was faster than Jack Christopher, considered the fastest 2-year-old in the country, ran in the Champagne Stakes. He is a bit behind after having to miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but is scheduled to work any day now and will tentatively target the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes.
4—Pappacap (Mark Casse, Gun Runner – Pappascat, by Scat Daddy)
He was my Breeders’ Cup Juvenile selection and ran a powerful second to front-running winner Corniche at odds of 15-1. He started his career with impressive victories in a Gulfstream maiden race and the six-furlong Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. You don’t normally see a 2-year-old win his first two starts on both coasts. You can excuse his fourth in the Del Mar Futurity, breaking from the rail, and he was up against it in his back-to-back seconds having to chase a loose on the lead Corniche in the American Pharoah Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His pedigree is geared mainly for longer distances and he should show a new dimension when the pace is more contentious. He is a steady grinder who keeps coming at you and his Thoro-Graph numbers have gotten steadily faster with a solid “4 ¼” in the Juvenile, which was slightly faster than the winner. He also also got a faster number than Corniche in the American Pharoah. He’s been turning in some strong works at Fair Grounds, including a bullet flat for five furlongs in preparation for the January 22 LeComte Stakes.
5—Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Edwina E, by Square Eddie)
His upset victory over the heavily favored Messier in the Los Alamitos Futurity was a surprise, especially considering how green he was in the stretch, lugging in and cocking his head out badly, something he’d done before. But when Messier appeared to come back at him he turned him away with no problem, even though he was doing everything wrong. That shows how much talent this horse has. O’Neill worked him five furlongs in blinkers on January 9 and put him with a pretty quick 5-year-old gelding, Strongconstitution, who won a small stakes and placed in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes in 2019. Andy broke several lengths back, collared his workmate in the final furlong and drew clear late, keeping his head perfectly straight and looking much more professional. His time of :59 3/5 was the second fastest of 62 works at the distance. It looks like he will point for the February 19 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. I have to admit to a personal affection for his pedigree. In my first four years as a racing fan my favorite horses were Damascus, Dr. Fager, Arts and Letters, and His Majesty (and still are), and they are all in his pedigree.
6—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Calingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
Although I felt he should have been disqualified in the Remsen, there is no denying he ran a terrific race, rallying wide turning for home and battling gamely in the stretch. And in his previous start, a 1 1/16-mile maiden race, he was relentless in the stretch wearing down the leader in the final sixteenth. But he was so sluggish on the far turn Irad Ortiz wound up hitting him eight times before they turned for home. He was much more responsive in the Remsen as he cruised up behind horses, swung to the outside and put in his strong run in the stretch. Ortiz brought him in to look Zandon in the eye, but in doing so he was too reckless and put Zandon in a precarious and potentially dangerous situation. But the bottom line is that Mo Donegal has improved with every start, has a 1 1/8-mile victory under his belt, and with that much bottom, Pletcher doesn’t have to do much more with him except improve his speed figures. I did like his five-furlong work in a sharp 1:00 2/5 at Palm Beach Downs January 8, so Pletcher does seem to be putting some speed into him.
7—Giant Game (Dale Romans, Giant’s Causeway – Game For More, by More Than Ready)
Romans has a tendency to hype, and sometimes overhype, his horses, but he sure had this colt pegged right when he sent him to California for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile off an impressive 1 1/16-mile maiden victory at Keeneland and he ran huge, finishing a strong third at odds of 21-1. I like when a horse’s pure speed figures and Thoro-Graph figures parallel each other, and his Brisnet figures jumped from the mid-80s to a 99 in the Juvenile, while his Thoro-Graph figures jumped from a 13 ½ and a 10 ½ to a “4 ¾” in the Juvenile. In his maiden victory, he tracked the leader in second, withstood several challenges from behind and drew off with fluid strides. What I liked the most was how powerfully he was striding out at the wire. In the Breeders’ Cup, he settled nicely in sixth, responded with good acceleration on the turn to challenge Corniche from the outside turning for him. He couldn’t match strides with the winner, who had controlled the pace the whole way, and lost second when Pappacap came off the rail and outran him for the place. But like in his maiden score he was running strongly at the wire. You never know how a horse will make the transition from 2 to 3, but his five-furlong work :58 4/5 at Gulfstream and follow-up :59 4/5 suggests we’re going to see a better colt than we saw last year. His future book odds in Vegas range from 60-1 to 70-1, which seem awfully enticing to me.
8—Tiz the Bomb (Ken McPeek, Hit It a Bomb – Tiz the Key, by Tiznow)
Yes, he’s by a turf horse and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner and he has won two stakes on the turf and closed like rocket to get second in the BC Juvenile Turf, almost emulating his sire, but McPeek had him in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and was forced to scratch him due to a minor leg infection. Let’s not forget that he broke his maiden in an off-the-turf race at Ellis Park by 14 lengths and turned in two bullet half-mile works (:46 4/5 and :47 1/5) on the dirt at Keeneland last fall, as well as sharp five-furlong works in 1:00 flat and 1:00 1/5. He’s been working with Smile Happy and the pair went a half Saturday in a swift :46 1/5. His dam is by Tiznow, his second dam is by A.P. Indy, and his third dam is by Gone West. And his dam is inbred 3 x 4 to Seattle Slew. That is more than enough to suggest he will handle the dirt just fine. He’s been a powerful closer on the turf, but broke his maiden wire to wire and if McPeek, who already has two hot Derby contenders, feels this colt belongs on the Derby trail as well, that’s good enough for me. He’s quoted at 100-1 in the future book, and if McPeek is right about him, and he runs to his works, that could be the steal of the year. We’ll find out when he faces Smile Happy in the Holy Bull Stakes.
9—Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Smitten, by Tapit)
I’m taking a chance ranking this colt, not because he’s still a maiden and was a non-threatening fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but because of his uncertainty at this time. He was the subject of my first Derby sleeper column despite having only run second in a maiden race. But I saw enough in that race to convince me this was a future stakes horse. Pletcher, or the owners, obviously felt the same way when they entered him the Grade 1 Champagne even though he had only one start and hadn’t won a race. He ran a huge race putting in a long sustained run to finish second to Jack Christopher. Much was expected in the BC Juvenile and he was sent off at odds of 3-1. He was caught four-wide on the first turn and never put in a run, but still finished a respectable fourth. As it turned out he came out of the race with some minor bone bruising all around. He’s had some R&R and is doing excellent and should be back galloping in the next week or so. What he’s done so far as a maiden has been pretty impressive and the feeling here is if he gets back to top form and stays sound he will be a major factor on the Derby trail. But he better get back galloping soon. If no works show up in the next couple of weeks there will be no recourse but to drop him from the Rankings until he shows up on the work tab.
10—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
All we need from him are two big efforts in a row. He looked like a monster breaking maiden going six furlongs at Gulfsteam, in which he went to the lead from the rail and just blew his field away, winning by almost 17 lengths in 1:09 4/5 despite never changing leads. He came back in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer and was sent off at odds of 6-5 and proceeded to run a disappointing race, battling on the lead and coming up empty in the stretch to finish a tiring third and again not changing leads. Despite that effort, Sano put him in the one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes and switched from Mario Vasquez to Javier Castellano. Simplification took the lead on his own and despite several horses closing in on him nearing the top of the stretch, Castellano never moved his hands through swift fractions of :45 4/5 and 1:09 4/5. The colt briefly looked like he was content again to stay on his left lead, but Castellano was able to finally get him to switch to his right lead while throwing a cross on him and he quickly opened up on the field, winning by four lengths as Castellano just showed him the whip. He came home his final eighth in :12 2/5 to complete the mile in a sharp 1:35 flat, with his Thor-Graph figure leaping from a “14” to a “2 ½.” Distance won’t be a question as he has plenty of stamina, with his dam being inbred 4 x 4 to the major stamina influence Herbager. They just need to be on bounce alert and take it slow with him.
11—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
He looked like he could be any kind after his career debut at Saratoga when he trounced his field by 6 ½ lengths in a sharp 1:22 3/5 for the seven furlongs. But even though he ran well in his next two stakes appearances he kept running into a McPeek freak. First it was Rattle N Roll in the Breeders’ Futurity, in which he set a lively pace, but tired in the stretch to finish third, beaten 3 ¾ lengths in a 13-horse field. His next start was the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. This time he rated nicely in fourth and cruised up the leaders on the far turn, but Smile Happy was breathing down his neck from the outside. They turned for home on even terms 3-wide and 4-wide, but he was no match for Smile Happy who drew off in the stretch. Classic Causeway never quit and was well clear of the others, but he just didn’t have the closing kick to stay with the winner. By running “5” Thoro-Graph number in his debut and a “5” in the Kentucky Jockey Club he still has plenty of room for improvement. Distance is not a question and he is versatile enough; he just has to show he can match strides with top-class horses in the stretch.
12—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
He sure didn’t look like your typical Derby horse in his career debut, but the transformation between that race, when he went to the lead and tired to finish an uninspiring sixth, and his next two races was pretty remarkable. Stretching out from seven furlongs to a mile, he again went to the lead, then lost the lead, then got the lead back through testing fractions of :45 4/5 and 1:10 2/5, and Brian Hernandez was not really asking him. He opened up in the stretch and was hand-ridden in the final furlong, winning by 3 ½ lengths in 1:36 1/5. He shipped to Fair Grounds and on December 26 he demolished his opponents in the 1 1/16 Gun Runner Stakes. Again, he kept alternating for the lead without being urged on at all. He established a clear lead after turning for home and when Tejano Twist tried to make a run at him, he shifted into another and in a flash he was five lengths in front and then pretty much coasted home to win by 6 ½ lengths, and then turned in a monster gallop-out while still hugging the rail. I loved how once he drifted just slightly to get close to the rail, he stayed right on his path and didn’t move off it even galloping out. His steady Thoro-Graph progression of “14 ½” to “8 ½” to “5 ½” is just what you want to see, with no fear of a bounce. I’d like to see him take back a bit off the pace and I think we’ll see that next time.
13—God of Love (Mark Casse, Cupid – No Wonder, by Three Wonders)
He’s never run on dirt, never run in the United States, and his pedigree certainly is nothing to get excited about. So why is he ranked? Because he has shown a monster closing kick on the Tapeta surface and grass at Woodbine, winning the Grey Stakes and Cup and Saucer Stakes and likely will be the Canadian 2-year-old champion. His fast-closing fifth in the Cup and Saucer Stakes was much more impressive than it looked on paper, as he had to check four times. The last and worst at the five-sixteenths pole stopped him dead in his tacks, but he still came flying in the stretch, closing from 11th and the eighth pole to finish fifth. He is an appealing looking son of Cupid with two white stockings in front and a funky blaze, and if he can close on dirt the way he does on synthetic and grass then he should be an exciting addition to the Derby trail. In the Grey Stakes he got huge “4 ½” Thoro-Graph figure, faster than stablemate Pappacap got in the BC Juvenile, and he did work five furlongs on dirt at Palm Meadows in 1:00 2/5, so we’ll just have to wait and see. Gulfstream is not conducive to his style of running, so he will ship to Aqueduct for the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes on February 5. We won’t know for sure how he’ll take to the dirt until he does it, but this just looks like a really good colt, and I believe he will be equally as effective on dirt as he was on synthetic and grass.
14—Chasing Time (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Race Hunter, by Dixie Union)
I love when a young horse never deviates off his path, carries his legs under him perfectly, is never touched or pushed in the stretch, is light on his feet, and wins in hand with the rider looking back while drawing well clear of the field. Chasing Time didn’t beat much in his 7 ¾-length romp in a one-mile allowance races at Oaklawn, but he did everything right visually, mentally, and mechanically. And he did it in a short stretch coming home his last quarter in a solid :24 4/5. In his previous start, in which he was second by six lengths, he was dropping back from seven furlongs to six furlongs and simply ran into a very fast horse in In Dreams and couldn’t keep up with him through fractions of :21 4/5 and :45 2/5 and a final time of 1:09 3/5. Before that he broke his maiden going seven furlongs and did it by having to bull his way out of a precarious situation, hanging a right to avoid running up on a horse’s heels in the upper stretch and then literally shoving another horse out of his way. He is a classy-looking, near-black colt who has plenty of stamina and looks ready to step up against better company.
15—Oviatt Class (Keith Desormeaux, Bernardini – Occasionally, by Tiznow)
One of these days, this colt is going to get a good pace setup and we’ll see just how good he is. The talent is there, the breeding certainly is there, and he has a strong closing kick that will win him a number of big races during the year. But in his three stakes appearance he’s been beaten by a Baffert horse each time, and he looks to be pace dependent, needing larger fields and a more contentious pace. He will run all day, but I just would like to see more versatility and for him to be right there at the finish when running closer to the pace, as he did in the recent Sham Stakes. But he really had no choice in a five-horse field, and was up against it with a :48 4/5 half, and Baffert horses don’t get beat setting a :48 4/5 half. He actually ran well to be third, beaten 2 ¾ by the Baffert pair. As the Derby trail progresses and he can find a race scenario that fits his late running style I believe he will start working his way up the Rankings. All I know is that with the right setup there isn’t a 3-year-old in California who can outclose him.
16—Trafalgar (Al Stall, Jr., Lord Nelson – Southern Drifter, by Dixie Union)
What intrigues me about this colt is the diversity of his running style. In his first start going seven furlongs at Saratoga, he broke slowly from the disadvantageous rail, was hustled up to fifth and turned in a steady rally to finish second to a very good horse in Classic Causeway in a sharp 1:22 3/5. Stretching out to a mile at Churchill Downs and switching from John Velazquez to Joe Rosario, he fell way back to ninth, 10 lengths behind sizzling fractions of :44 4/5 and 1:09 flat. Although he looked hopefully beaten swinging five-wide turning for home, he turned in a powerful stretch run to win going away by 2 ¼ lengths in 1:35 3/5. He was sent to Fair Grounds for a 1 1/16-mile allowance race for his two-turn debut. This time under Colby Hernandez, he sat right off the leader’s flank and stalked him through moderate fractions of :24 4/5 and :49 3/5. He wrested command after turning for home and began to draw clear. Hernandez may have thought he had it won after taking a peek at the horse he had just passed and seemed to let up just a little. Just then he looked to his outside and saw Naval Aviator charging up alongside him, actually sticking his head in front. Hernandez went to a left-handed whip to bring Trafalgar out to look him in the eye. Once he did, Trafalgar dug in and gamely battled back, winning by a head with a gap of five lengths back to the third horse. This horse is versatile ad can beat you in different ways.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
BAFFERT BULLETIN – In an unprecedented move, Churchill Downs has banned Bob Baffert for two years and refused to offer points to any of his horses, while excluding all his horses from the Derby Future Wager. Therefore, not knowing the status of his horses and who will be training them, and many of those horses already losing out on Derby points, I am excluding his horses from the Rankings until some decision is made regarding Baffert’s Derby caliber horses and they officially can be considered on the Derby trail and earning points. Baffert is suing Churchill Downs over their ban, but that looks to be a longshot. We will be following his 3-year-olds each week in Knocking on the Door and keeping up with their training and racing and offering our observations and pedigree notes. Once a decision has been made as to the future of these horses and we know they officially are on the Derby trail and accumulating points, and who is training them, there is a good chance several will leap onto the Rankings. Although CORNICHE is the big horse, the more likely Derby horses appear to be DOPPELGANGER, MESSIER, and WHARTON, with an eye on NEWGRANGE, ROCKEFELLER, PINEHURST and WINNING MAP, along with several others. So he is loaded again. We’ll catch up on all these horses next week, as there is a lot to sift through in Week 1.
With the exception of Commandperformance and Rattle N Roll, who should be just about ready to start training, I am also going to exclude horses who have not been working since last fall and their status is up in the air. Unfortunately for New York racing that applies to last year’s impressive Hopeful and Champagne winners GUNITE and JACK CHRISTOPHER, both of whom appear to be longshots to make the Derby. But another New York horse HIGH OAK, winner of the Saratoga Special, who hasn’t raced since that race, is back working at Payson Park, where he is up to a half-mile, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on this talented colt, as I will the runaway Sanford Stakes winner WIT, who looked like one of the most promising 2-year-olds in the country before finishing a well-beaten second in the Hopeful and a well-beaten third in the Champagne. Following the Champagne he had a tie-back procedure to correct an entrapped epiglottis, which no doubt affected his previous two performances. He’s back in training and reportedly doing great, so we’ll see if he can return to the form that saw him win his first two starts by a total of 14 lengths.
And finally, I am going to remove the temptation at this late date to rank horses who have only broken their maidens, as we have seen too many who look like world beaters knocking off fellow maidens, but often they don’t duplicate that form once they face winners. That leaves me with having to exclude EMMANUEL, who was one of the most impressive winners I saw last year. It looked like he was going to take the next step by crushing an allowance field at Tampa Bay last weekend, but he had to be scratched because of a fever. So leaving him off does not reflect what I think of him. I can see him vaulting way up the list when he does return. He’s that good. Remember, the Derby winner can just as easily be found in Knocking on the Door this early in the year, and this is a live horse who was visually impressive first time out.
Another horse who I see making the list shortly is the impressive maiden winner SIR LONDON, who has been tearing up the track at Santa Anita in the morning with back-to-back bullet works. His Thoro-Graph numbers have been slow, but he looks to have a bright future. He’s just about ready to show it.
We did have a couple of recent stakes worth mentioning. As if Kenny McPeek isn’t loaded enough with top 3-year-olds, he sent out the undefeated DASH ATTACK to score an impressive come from behind victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. A few minor issues at 2 delayed his debut, and he also was immature and had to be sent to the farm a few times. But he established a good solid work pattern and is now on the Derby trail. By Munnings, there is a question how far he wants to go, although his dam did break her maiden going 1 1/8 miles on the turf for McPeek. At Aqueduct, COURVOISIER ran a solid race in the slop to take the one-mile Jerome Stakes. By Tapit, out of Take Charge Brandi, you certainly can’t question his pedigree. These were both good efforts, but obviously we need to see more before considering them major players.
Last weekend was a good one for Mark Casse, who already has Pappacap heading to the LeComte next weekend and God of Love pointing fo the Withers. With Emmanuel scratching out of the Tampa Bay allowance race, he took advantage of his absence by winning the race with the Ghostzapper colt GOLDEN GLIDER, who had to come from far back with a powerful late run to break his maiden in his career debut on Woodbine’s synthetic surface. He was strong in the stretch again in his dirt debut going a mile and 40 yards, winning comfortably by 1 ¾ lengths. The following day at Gulfstream, Casse defeated the promising Pletcher-trained colt CHARGE IT with VOLCANIC, a son of Violence who hadn’t run since a dismal effort in the Hopeful Stakes. But with the addition of blinkers and Lasix he was able to outduel Charge It after a stretch-long battle in 1:36 flat for the mile. Both Golden Glider and Volcanic will head to the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay. Casse also has GLIDER, who made an explosive move to easily win a maiden race at Gulfstream over the synthetic surface, and with his breeding, being by Quality Road, out a Lemon Drop Kid mare, the next logical step will be to try him on dirt.
Pletcher did send out an impressive first-time starter in the Distorted Humor colt IRON WORKS, who scored a four-length victory in 1:09 3/5 at Gulfstream. At Tampa Bay the same day, his Union Rags colt IN THE UNION rallied from seventh to win a mile and 40-yard maiden race by a length. Pletcher also sent out a pair of good-looking Quality Road colts, SHINNECOCK HILLS and MACALLAN, to finish noses apart in a seven-furlong maiden race at Tampa Bay. Both colts put in strong stretch runs and look to have a bright future. And he has several others waiting in the wings, including MAJOR GENERAL, who had his first work back this past Friday, DOUBLE THUNDER, and VARATTI. But year after year, Pletcher is a terror in Florida.
Right now it’s too early to separate MAKE IT BIG and OSBOURNE, the one-two finishers of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. Both ran good solid races, with Osbourne losing a lot of ground on the first turn. I’m not sure what to make of the race in general, but they both ran well enough to keep an eye on. Osbourne has been working at Oaklawn Park and Make it Big is training at Gulfstream. Saffie Joseph, trainer of Make it Big, also has a promising colt in WHITE ABARRIO, who won his first two starts at Gulfstream by 6 ¾ and four lengths before finishing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, beaten six length after being bottled up in traffic in the stretch and closing well once he got clear. Just not quite sure how much farther he’ll stretch out.
Saturday’s Cal Cup Derby was an exciting race with FAST DRAW MUNNINGS outdueling the 3-5 favorite STRAIGHT UP G, but right now neither looks like they want to go classic distances. But we’ll keep an open mind until they go against open company. Third-place finisher FINNEUS, who was closer to the pace than usual, looks more like a Derby horse, having already finished second Pappacap in the Best Pal Stakes and second to Pinehurst in the Del Mar Futurity. And he defeated Slow Down Andy in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes.
Let’s go briefly to Maryland where JOE has emerged as a potential Derby horse with two solid victories in a row, including an impressive score in the seven-furlong Maryland Juvenile Championship at Laurel, overcoming a very wide trip to win going away. He hasn’t been over a mile, but he’s bred to run all day, being by Declaration of War, out of an Arch mare. He has nice low action, a classy look about him, and he should only get better as he stretches out in distance.
One horse to keep an eye on who has been turning in some strong works at Palm Meadows is the Rusty Arnold-trained SPIN WHEEL, who broke his maiden going 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs, breaking from post 11, hesitating at the start, going four-wide on the first turn, dropping back to 10th, then 11th, then 12th and looking like he had no shot to finish on the board. But he cut the corner, came around one horse, dropped back to the rail, squeezed his way through a narrow opening and just got up to win by a nose before opening up 10 lengths on the gallop-out. He looks like an intriguing colt who needs to get faster and not drop so far out of it.
In the “You Don’t See This Very Often” department, FROMANOTHAMUTHA, an impressive 4 1/4-length maiden winner at Aqueduct going seven furlongs, has two Kentucky Derby runnersup in his pedigree that you rarely, if ever, see. His broodmare sire is Aptitude, second to Fusaichi Pegasus in the 2000 Derby, and his third dam is by Sham, second to Secretariat in the 1973 Derby. He will now be pointed for the Gotham Stakes.
Not on topic, but condolences to everyone who loved and cared for Leslie’s Lady who died peacefully this morning at age 26. She was probably the best broodmare of the past 20 years.
Have to give a shout out to “California Chromes Legacy of Love Group” for helping bring multiple Thoroughbreds back to the United States who were in dire straits in Puerto Rico (with the assistance of Caribbean Aftercare and multiple donors in the sport and industry. They are all now safe and will be given the best of care, lots of groceries, lots of love and lots of treats as they recover from their ordeal. I have found that most “horse people” are the best, always stepping up to help both people and horses anyway they can.
Hope you got a chance to see Vinco Sat at the fairgrounds race 9 This colt is going to be a star. Other than Ratttle and Roll , VINCO just moved right to the top 3 of my derby prospects. LOVE HIM
First off, tip of the cap to Matthew W for picking longshot Call Me Midnight at 29-1, who closed like gangbusters to take down the two favorites, in the Lecomte Stakes.
On a side note, my Derby Futures pick at 200-1, Joe, made it three in a row, winning an AOC, 8.5 furlong race, at Laurel Park today, finishing in 1:44.36, drawing off by 2 1/2 lengths. One drawback with this colt, he seems to have a problem changing leads in the stretch run. In today’s race, he remained on his left lead, but still managed to hang on for the win.
In his last race, the Maryland Juv. Championship Stakes, he didn’t switch to his right lead until mid-stretch.
I’m sure the trainer will correct this flaw, the only question is how he will approach it. Possibly switching to a top rider that is more adapt at accomplishing the lead switch. There’s been no announcement as to where Trombetta will point Joe in his next race, hopefully it will be a Derby prep race that offers points. We’ll see.
“ALL Others” is 2-1, that seems like a good price, it just doesn’t look like the other 23 will have very many that make the race, let alone will contend.
Well, it takes only one of those 23 entries, and that one will be a heck of a lot higher than 2-1 by 6 p.m. today. If I wasn’t so lazy, I’d research how many entries in KDFW2 make the Derby field each year. My guess is it would be a handful of runners.
Seven from last year’s KDFW2 got into the Derby gate: finishers 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10. Impossible to say which ones in this group will be around on the first Saturday in May.
This year has all of BB’s in “all others”, I just don’t see that many top horses on that board right now …
Newgrange will be running next Sat in Arkansas…Doppleganger in the San Vicente same day–ala Silver Charm….Call Me Midnight/Epicenter got 88 Beyers, Mandaloun 106 and Midnight Bourbon 105.
Nice field shaping up in the Southwest: Slow Down Andy, Dash Attack, Newgrange, and possibly Chasing Time. No room for error on the Road to the Derby as shown by results for the past 10 years. Recent history says WIN, WIN, WIN — or just WIN, WIN if colt has no race in January. 🙂
Both races shaping up to be assume, guys!
Best race yesterday (in my opinion) was Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon in the Louisiana Stakes. Looking forward to more match ups between these two this coming year. Just gotta love these older horses!
How ’bout those 49ers! lol
Weather had to help (my) Niners! An old fashioned tough guy football team! Complete with a heart attack QB! Will either face the Rams, for a rematch—or Bucs, for a Brady vs Brady v Brady’s understudy—speaking of old-time tough guy football players—Joe Burrow. ‘Nuff said!
Looking like facing Rams.
How much change in the Rankings will we see tomorrow? I expect very little. Call Me Midnight should replace Trafalgar. Pappacap will likely drop several places. He had a near perfect trip but couldn’t sustain his run in the final 50 yards. His less experienced rival Epicenter, on the other hand, held on well to be second. I was surprised to see him on the lead and would expect to never see him do that again!
Epicenter should be placed within the top 10… if you consider that his first quarter was 2 full seconds faster than Midnight Bourbon’s his second place in front of Pappacap is indeed exceptional…
As you said, the son of Not This Time will be doing way better if they are able to harness his rich speed…
Yes, Nelson. Epicenter is going to be a force. Did you see that Mandaloun went about 23 4/5 from the 6f mark to the mile mark? Off a 6-month layoff!
I just saw that Epicenter’s time for the first quarter was corrected to 23 2/5 from 22 2/5 … still very demanding
run-up issues?
I am shocked! Ha ha!
Kudos to Matthew for his big win with Call me Midnight. The victory makes the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes look even better. Smile Happy’s stock went up. The other Midnight (Bourbon) had no excuse after being alone with slow early fractions. But he always hangs in there, never giving up. I love the Vox Populi winner.
Yes, Roberta. But wait, could there be more shocks in the near future? White Abarrio ran a sneaky good race in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, all things considered. The Holy Bull Stakes could be beckoning for White Abarrio. Stay tuned.
Thank you for the warning, Davids. I will study up on White Abarrio. Strange name for a horse, though. Anyway, sorry for confusing Midnight Bourbon with Vox Populi winner Hot Rod Charlie. I love them both!
At the close of KD Futures Pool 2, White Abarrio closed at 171-1. Yesterday, while I was at the casino, I boxed Simpliifcation, at 43-1, with the entire field. In addition, I placed a $100.00 win bet on Simplification, based on what I saw in his MMM Stakes win.
I was sorry to hear of the passing of Evan Jackson. Back in the days when the third at Aqueduct was a steeplechase, he and Barclay Tagg were my two favorite riders in those events, and Mr. Jackson rode the first horse I ever cashed a ticket on. My sympathy to his family.
I forget who it was who picked Call Me Midnight, but congrats! Nice call!
Oops, sorry, I just saw the previous post! Congrats Matthew!!
Congrats to Matthew W who had Call Me Midnight selected as his longshot in the LeComte Stakes.
Well…Who says it wasn’t a miracle?
And the Jockey of his darling Surfer Dude finished the race wearing Pajamas …
I am always happy when a Desormeaux wins big…!
I completely predictable upset in the Lecomte! Call Me Midnight had a dream set up, but both Epicenter and Pappacap were valiant in defeat. The rest of the field finished about as I expected based on form, but there’s always room for improvement at this time of year.
I don’t think we saw the Kentucky Derby in that field today, however.
Nelson and Matthew W:
Apologies that my post appeared in the middle of your congratulations! Not intentional at all. Thought I was posting a separate comment.
Many congrats, Matthew!
No need to apologize… it happens when we have more than one comment box open.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, there wasn’t a runner here that had that ‘pizzazz’ to sizzle on the first Saturday in May. Pass for me as well.
Yes, well done Matthew. The favorites weren’t that convincing to me but Call Me Midnight was off my radar.
Matthew!!!!!!
Egg…on…my…face!
28 eggs that is !!
Fortunately, I love eggs.
There seems as many candidates this year as there were extras in “Spartacus.” Good thing we have Steve to keep them all straight, as it is well beyond me! His little known potential aside, I will say that I had the chance recently to see Newgrange for the first time, and he left me breathless. What a gorgeous creature! If he runs to his looks, he will be at the front of the door in short order.
Well Cynthia, let’s hope the candidates remain “Spartacus” size and doesn’t balloon out to “Gandhi” extras, size. Spartacus had a massive 50,000 extras to maneuver but in Gandhi you’re dealing with medium town extras, size. A whopping 300,000 cast of extras!!
Couldn’t afford all of those bodies nowadays. They would have to rent the inflatable dummies from “Seabiscuit,” making sure to rid them of their fedoras.
Speaking of….Agador Spartacus (of “The Birdcage” fame) is still seeking his maiden win.
Is Happy Jack (Oxbow-Tapistry by Tapit) another Hot Rod Charlie for Doug O’Neil?
Mandaloun just went 1:42.52, and we’ll see how they do in the upcoming Lecomte….Midnight Boubon could not hold him off today, despite the easy early lead–Steve–I haven’t in my lifetime seen many Thoroughbred Racehorses that check all the boxes like Mandaloun does, looks wise.
Well they went much faster earlyu, in the Lecomte, and finished around four lengths behind Mandaloun’s final time…some Midnight horse, never heard of him…(hehe..)
My mistake, the Lecomte first half was 1 1/5 faster, and the final time for Mandaloun was 1 4/5 faster, which means Mandaloun really finished well, that’s around nine lengths faster at the finish, would gave been around six back after a half Mandaloun ran straight and strong.
Yes Matthew… Mandaloun is poised for a grand campaign this year if he stays healthy.
Congrats on your LeComte bomb… I hope you fetch a rich winning ticket.
The early pace of the LeComte was very taxing if you compare it to that of the Louisiana Statkes… Epicenter ran big but the stage was set to a closer … the one you foresaw
(:24.39, :48.25, 1:12.23, 1:36.21, 1:42.52) Mandaloun Louisiana Stakes
(:22.40, :47.1, 1:12.16, 1:37.71, 1:44.36) Call Me Midnight LeComte Stakes
The pace was the reason my horse won….I needed every inch of that stretch—I missed the start of the race, and down the backstretch I wasn’t sure he wasn’t being eased—he never appeared, till the 5/16 pole….I also liked Mandaloun, but knew his odds would not be worth a wager–so I played an all/2/8 late pick three—cost $5….paid $793—-I did think Call Me Midnight would run well, but I was LUCKY to cash that ticket….Mandaloun was best—Call Me Midnight was luckiest!
CMM may have been lucky, but your longshot pick was the best!
Your Luck is 80% made of Skill
Not bad for a $5 investment! Well done Matthew!
:23 2/5 Lecompte first quarter.
Seems to be corrected from the :22 2/5 I noted down during the running of the LeComte…still very fast early tempo for the track…!
Back to back :24 quarters in the Mandaloun/Midnight Bourbon throw down, and Mandy made up 3 lengths during those internal fractions, down the stretch was running arrow straight this is some kind of serious horse!
He will be the favorite in the Saudi Cup…
Good to see that Rattle N Roll is back in training. He worked 3 Furlongs in 36.13 seconds ranked 9/35 this morning at Gulfstream Park.
The Grade I winner will be prepared for the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby.
Good news !
Also American Icon continues to impress training towards his first race as a 3-year-old. His debut on December 26 is very encouraging.
Today he clocked 47.92 seconds for 4 furlongs ranked 1 of 31 workouts at Palm Beach Downs.
Probably no chance of it happening, but would love to see Rawy on the Derby Trail.
So impressed by this colt and his win in the Derby Trial (for the 2000 Guianas) at Meydan yesterday!
And what a pedigree and he a good looking colt!
Lynda, it was a very impressive win by Rawy. Thus far, Frosted’s progeny appear more miler types than beyond but there’s enough back pedigree here that 10f ‘might’ not be too far. The next race should provide a better gage. Hope springs eternal.
Agree, Thanks.
Rawy was impressive indeed Lynda.
He defeated a salty that included the adds on favorite Al Bahr, and two excellent South American horses named Quality Bone and Kiefer.
As Davids said, we should see how he progress toward the UAE Derby… Tiznow, Storm Cat and Green Dancer in the maternal side may help him going longer …!
if he gets Derby enough qualifying points there he may very well come to play at the Big Leagues…
Edit:
*salty field
* enough Derby qualifying points
Mattress Mac. He messed up and put his ten grand on #19 instead of Smile Happy (#18)!
Oh wow, and there’s no canceling! So he’ll need to do it again! Just as long as he leaves #17 alone!
I was just kidding, but who knows, maybe that is what happened?
Maybe it was a MattMack ploy to bring attention to Tiz and drive SH’s price up. Then at the last minute he puts down $10k on SH.
Very clever!
Has Bob B had a positive in NY? Has Rice and Diordino? Cuz they’re still racing there, and it looks like NY is trying to Duttow-ize Bob….seems selective, at t he very least.
Not surprisingly, Smile Happy is the current KDFW2 favorite among individual entries at 9-1. The Myracehorse folks have bet Chasing Time down to 11-1, the same odds as for Jack Christopher. Pappacap checks in next at 16-1. “All other three year olds” (aka current BB trainees et al.) is at 6-5. Significant moves up or down are in store for the three Lecomte runners. Right now I’m focusing on Classic Causeway at 69-1 and Zandon at 36-1. Especially for the latter, I’m hoping the odds increase after Mattress Mack places his bet on Smile Happy.
somebody dropped about $10K on Tiz the Bomb a few minutes ago, he’s now at 6-1!!
😮 That bettor must have been quite impressed by TTB’s 14-length off-the-turf maiden win at Ellis Park.
Undoubtedly!!!
Hi Steve and friends,
I am pulling for Trafalgar – not only in tomorrow’s LeComte but on the first Saturday in May. I like the fact that Albert Stall didn’t wheel him into a stakes race following his maiden win but instead entered him into a 1 1/16 mile allowance race on the FG oval.
I also like that he is in tough tomorrow as it will give his connections a sense of where he stands and what is the best way to prepare him for KD’s 1/14 miles and seemingly endless home stretch.
I hope all horses run to their potential and return to their barns sound following the race.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Even a placing would be good.
Hi Steve
Are you dedicated or an insomniac? I see you posted your reply to me at 4:17 am. Is that the secret to your extensive research on KD candidates, that you never sleep? Or are you actually a superhero saving Gotham and just returned to your keyboard from another night of saving the city?
Your readers (and Gotham) thanks you for your literally tireless efforts on our behalf.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Both LOL
Hi, Greg. No surprise that Stall entered Trafalgar in an allowance race after the maiden win. He’s one of the most conservative trainers in that regard. But there’s probably a good mix among all Derby runners and Derby winners of those that went right into stakes company and those that didn’t. I believe that Trafalgar would be Stall’s first Derby runner. It’s always nice to see new names at the Derby.
I like CK.
Hi Greg… Trafalgar is a very versatile prospect and you are right about him being bound to get stronger and faster down the road.
I was surprised to learn that his trainer, Albert Stall Jr., has not had any entries in the Derby…! The trainer of Blame was close to be in the Derby with My Pal Charlie in 2008 and Departing in 2013.
Well … Trafalgar is poised to change all that this year.
The highly accomplished Pappacap, and other two horses from the first ranking, Trafalgar and Epicenter will be making their statements tomorrow in the LeComte Stakes. It is a sneaky race with prospects like Cyberknife and Unified Report attempting to climb the “Derby Ladder”.
The last four LeComte winners (Midnight Bourbon, Enforceable, War of Will and Instilled Regard) were able to reach the Derby. Last year, Mandaloun was a hard-fought third and went on to finish a close second in the Derby.
The LeComte has been a regular stepping stone chosen by Asmussen, Casse and Cox for some of their Derby pursuers. Precisely these top trainers are presenting the top three horses.
Pappacap and Epicenter are the leading contenders but if not bring their A game it will be a good LeComte pay day for sure…!
Cyberknife has shown an effective tactical speed and should perform well while stretching as he is sired by Gun Runner out of Awesome Flower by Travers victor Flower Alley; who is also the sire of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner and Champion Three Year Old I’ll Have Another. Cyberknife’s has run greenly in all his three stars. I am curious to see if Brad Cox’s been able to correct that …
Even one of the longest shot in the Lecomte, Presidential (Pioneeerof the Nile- Uptown Twirl by Twirling Candy), could be in the mix for the loaded Asmussen and owner Courtlandt Farms. You may recall Courland flirting with Derby glory with Greatest Honour last year.
My trifecta box will read: Pappacap, Presidential, Epicenter, Cyberknife and Unified Report.
Good luck to all horse players this weekend !
It’s not going to be a balmy day and that’s for sure. Good luck, Nelson. I thought you may have put a little wager on Lord Nelson’s offspring. You feel no bond to your namesake’s progeny. If Trafalgar wins…
I take that you like Trafalgar in the LeComte… it is an open race and Trafalgar is one of the most versatile horses there. In a competitive race I had to find a drawback (excuse?) to wait on him… in this case I did not like his slower split times at Fair Ground.
I hear you and I might be playing a couple of bucks on him after the post parade though…!
No Nelson, not really. I thought it would be fun if Trafalgar won but again, in the Lecomte, he proved to me a mile is his best distance. However, a colt that interested me more today and did win was Peaceful Waters. Acid test to come.
And I liked Pioneering Spirit was closing fast making up about 4 lengths at the end.
His dam is 3/4 sister to Medina Spirit.
I will be including Peaceful Waters and Medina Spirit in my Virtual Stable.
Nelson, I thought Stellar Tap, with a better trip, may have won. Could be coming around again to that impressive performance and distance seems no problem. Time will tell.
No Love for Surfer Dude?
9/18/202 – CD 7F MSW- Surfer Dude 5th by 6 1/4L; Epicenter 6th by 7 3/4L
Surfer Dud came from behind to finish ahead of Epicenter in the above race. Epicenter then defeated Surfer Duse in their next two meetings. Epicenter has clealy established himself as the better of the two.
Given Surfer Dude’s two 3rd place finishes behind Epicenter and his 3rd behind BCJ 3rd place finisher Giant Game. He must have ashot to make the top 3 with expected improvement. Remember the Curlins get better with racing.
Good observation about the September race… Yes.. Surfer Dude came back to pass Epicenter in mid homestretch. It was Epicenter’s debut and he had to be hustled from PP 2 . Surfer Dude started from PP1 in that first encounter of both and you can see that Epicenter was faster despite less than perfect break … Epicenter could not sustain his own hard-wearing pace (22.1 and 45.3) but (as expected) he improved greatly in his next two races; where, as you said, Surfer Dude never threatened Epicenter.
Speed from the rail is always dangerous and the track is favoring speed so far. However, right now Surfer Dude seems to be a one-dimensional speedster.
And you are right about Curlin progeny … I really like Surfer Dude’s pedigree with a maternal side sporting the great horses Tiznow, Woodman, Easy Goer and In Reality.
I just would like to see Surfer Dude changing his running style to a stalker or even mid closer… anyways, he adds salt and pepper to the LeComte to be run in exactly four hours…!
Hey, Lord Nelson. That’s interesting and somewhat surprising that the last four Lecomte winner all ran in the Derby. Could be that it’s the only Jan/Feb prep that can boast of that accomplishment. I’m just going to enjoy the race with no betting action. Roberta (below) isn’t the only one here that would be shocked if the winner isn’t Pappa or Ep. In fact, I’d be just slightly less than shocked if they don’t finish 1-2. At this point, they are much the best.
In last year’s early preps (from the Jerome on Jan 1 to the FOY on Feb 27), favorites won 8 of 13 races, all at odds of 2-1 and lower. Second favorites won 3 races. But this is horse racing. Almost anything can happen.
You may be right about the race not offering any significant payouts and watching it without betting is the best way to enjoy and even analyze the race objectively … which is the idea going down the Derby trail.
And you are spot on regarding the predictability of the Derby preps… typically we don’t see horses with big jumps in form in those races.
Your last statement is the main reason we keep betting…!
In a post way below I answered a question by Brudder_A around the durability of the number 1 horse in the first week of Steve’s rankings.
Summarizing we can see that over the past 12 years of Haskin Rankings five (5) top horses of the first ranking went on to run in the Derby. The following are their Derby final finish:
Creative Cause (4th), Classic Empire (4th), Good Magic (2nd), Game Winner(5th), ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4th)…
As you expect the very first ranking is based primarily on 2-year-old credentials (i.e. four Champions listed here). The early top (Derby favorite) horses usually are overpowered by other hopefuls arising during four months of Derby Trail… that is why Essential Quality’s performance is so remarkable on all counts…
Out of the other seven (7) early #1 horses three (3) were not able to make it due to injuries, one (1) due to last-minute unknown illness (Uncle Mo) and three (3) did not get the points or went off form.
I hope debuting fellow commenter Brudder_A is satisfied with this reply…☺️
As I recall Steve had California Chrome in the Knocking At The Door Section for a few weeks. He eventually landed in the top spot and of course won the Derby.
I had a feeling that the question posed by the “debuting fellow commenter” wasn’t an entirely innocuous one. Hope I’m wrong.
Yes… It could be one of the regulars but with changed Pseudonym.
At least he/she should have acknowledge my deference in trying to feed his “curiosity”…
Go figure…
Great info for the future bets this weekend. Thanks Steve!
Good luck.
I like Corniche & Pappacap in this early part of the Triple Crown trail.
I wonder if this whole Medina Spirit decision will extend beyond the Kentucky Derby so they can keep Baffert from competing in the Triple Crown.
It would not surprise me.
Lots of good feedback for a first Derby Rankings
Mr. Dacon,
All the best for the new year and my all your wagers always provid a ROI.
“I like Corniche & Pappacap in this early part of the Triple Crown trail.”
You statement above leads me to ask your opinion of Giant Game. As a last out MSW winner Giant Game finish 1 1/4L behind Pappacap in the BCJ. Pappacap was making his 4th start in a graded stake, whereas Giant was making his graded stakes debut and first start against winners.
Which of the two do you believe is better prospect going forwards?
Hi, Deacon. The legal maneuvering surrounding the positive tests results after the Derby are separate from the suspension issues. I don’t think that BB is going to be successful in overturning the CD ban, and the NY ban will likely be restored. If Corniche’s owners want the colt in the Derby, they had better find another trainer soon. Pappacap, on the other hand, will be comfortable in his own barn until Derby week. 🙂
Late news, Lecomte Stakes; Per connections, Blue Kentucky will scratch.
I don’t bet, but if a horse other than Pappacap or Epicenter wins I’d be SHOCKED.
I’m inclined to agree with you Roberta, but there’s no money to be made betting either one of those two. Unified Report, at 12-1 and Trafalgar, at 6-1 are two that look enticing to me. In one of my superfecta bets, I’ll key those two on top, in the first 2 slots, with Surfer Dude, Pappacap, Epicenter and Cyberknife in the 3rd and 4th slots, ($24.00). In my other super bet, I’ll key Pappacap and Epicenter on top in the first 2 slots with Surfer Dude, Unified Report, Trafalgar, Cyberknife and Presidential in the 3rd and 4th slots, ($40.00). If two longshots come in 3rd and 4th, the super payout will be decent.
You mentioned you don’t bet, which is probably the smart way to approach the sport of horse racing. Going back about 60 years, I’m sure that I’ve tossed more tickets that I’ve cashed, but it’s been a fun ride. I’m a believer in the old adage, “you can’t take it with you”.
Take care.
On October 21, 1805 Napoleon was SHOCKED by the British Royal Navy. On January 22, 2022 will Roberta Greevey also be SHOCKED by a colt with historical references to the above famous navy battle of 1805. Tune in to the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans to see the what fate will be dealt out for Roberta!! It could be, shocking!!
Hi Bill,
ON Friday January 21, I visited Troy PA to examine for purchase a Smarty Jones filly. She is out Mi Lulu who was sired by Preakness Winner Louis Quatorze. Given Louis Quatorze was sired by Sovereign Dancer a son of Northern Dancer. The filly has the successful Mr. Prospector/Norther Dance cross.
The filly’s 2nd dam was sired by Wayne County a son of Sadler’s Wells. Wayne County dam is Arch winner Detroit
1980 Arch winner Detroit. Despite his pedigree Wanye Count never displayed the kind of ability expected. There is certainly a strong dose of Norther Dancer on the dam side. Which is a positive given the success of the broodmare line.
However, the negatives are plenty. Smarty Jones is bust as a sire. Dam sire Louis Quatorze is also a bust as both sire and dam sire. Further, the dam of the filly made 9 starts and finished last 5 times. Her closes finish was 3rd by 17L.
Being the incurable optimist taht I am. Smarty Jones being bred to a mare that displayed zero ability must result in something good.
I would appreciate knowing if the filly is worth the risk. Her conformation is good, likewise her temperament and is appears to be very smart. The asking price is $10K but that’s way too much, given the lack of success of the stallion and the mare’s race record.
Offer $12k and she’s yours.
Sequel to “Whose Life Is It Anyway?”: “Whose Blog Is It Anyway?”
It’s certainly not his! To paraphrase Cromwell and Churchill “He has sat here too long for any good he has been doing.”
Mr. EddieF,
There were some expressions of concern that you had left the blog unannounced. I am happy to see your return has put to rest said concerns.
“Whose Blog Is It Anyway?”
If the above question is in reference to this Blog. It is undoubtedly Steve Hankin’s Blog. As a result, he is at liberty to determine the weekly subject/issue to blog about.
Thank you.
I have revealed I have what I consider to be somewhat of calculating personality. Yes! I am the kind of guy that if the glove doesn’t fit you must acquit.
If Steve Haskin requested that his supporters provide their ranking of his top 12 in week #1. It is likely that his rankings wouldn’t be totally duplicated. Thus, the difficulty of ranking KD prospects at this early stage. Why would there be differences?
There are different evaluation methodologies in existence. Baises and emotions play a role in some evaluation processes. And some folks have absolutely no evaluation criterion. The latter category is the one in which I fall. But despite my limitations I try my best to recognize and acknowledge what I consider to be pertinent factors to the evaluation process
Ahead of the BCJ I submitted a post in support of Giant Game. He eventually became my across-the-board play in the race. He finished an extremely encouraging 3rd. Given that he is ranked at #7 and the colt that finished immediately ahead of him in the BCJ, is ranked at #4. The calculating side of my personality was activated.
Giant Game entered the BCJ as a last out MSW winner. When the race was finished, he was 3 1/4L in arrears to the winner and 1 3/4L in arrears to the runner up. What did the resumes of the two opponents that finished ahead of him reflect?
Corniche – Undefeated in 2 starts with a G1 win in the American Pharoah
Pappacap – Four career starts -2 wins with one being the Best Pal (G2) & a 2nd place finish in the G1 American Pharoah.
Now this is where my calculating mind trips in. A few questions need to be answered.
(1) Which of the top 12 ranked horses made its debut against winners in the most competitive 2OY graded stake assemble?
(2) Who was the last next out MSW winner to finish in the BCJ top 3?
(3) Do cold facts still matter?
When Corniche made his debut against winner in the American Pharoah as a last out MSW winner. The field was contained one graded stakes winner i.e., Pappacap the G2 Best Pal winner. When Pinehurst made his debut against winner in the G1 Del Mar Futurity as a last out MSW winner. The field was contained one graded stakes winner i.e., Pappacap the G2 Best Pal winner.
Two of the sanctioned trainer’s last out MSW winner made their debut against winners in G1 stakes that contained a single graded stake winner. When Giant Game made his debut against winners, it was in the biggest graded stakes for 2YO. The field contained two (G1) winners; One (G2) winner; One (G3) winner and three runner ups in (G1) stakes?
Giant Game defeated G1 winner Pinehurst and Champagne G1 runner up Commandperformance and was only 1 3/4L behind Pappacap who was contesting his 4 graded stakes compared the Giant Game’s first.
How can Giant Game be ranked as low as #7? He is the only colt in the top 12 that made his graded stake debut in one of the most competitive 2YO field assembled in 2021. It took two graded stakes winner and the the champion 2YO designate to keep him out of the winner’s enclosure.
The #1 ranked Smile Happy won his MSW in 1:44.75′ He was a next out winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club in 1:43.94. He was required to run < a second faster to achieve victory in his stakes debut. Giant Game won is MSW in 1:45.69. He finished 3rd next out in the BCJ completed in 1:42.5. He had to run 2.5 seconds faster to get with 3 1/4L of the winner.
By all calculations Giant Game being ranked at #7 cannot withstand criticism. The pertinent facts above suggest only Papapcap should be ranked ahead of Giant Game. How many were prevented from winning the biggest race for 2YO by two more experienced graded stakes winners
As much as some might want to pretend, they do not. Cold facts still matter!
Hot Rod Charlie was the runner up in the 2020 BCJ as a last out MSW winner. He went on to justify that placing with excellent performances in the TC series. It's interesting to see how Giant Game of a similar status is being dismissed.
Running by opponents who are running on the spot in the lane or separating from overmatched opponents by 10L is a modest test of ability. Sitting close to a blistering pace and then finding extra to engage top level opponents is the real test of ability. It's test Giant Game has passed.
It’s not very often the runner up in the Remsen is ranked as high as #2.
Despite being probably the only 9F KD Prep for 2YO. The Remsen hasn’t been producing on the board finishers in the KD at a regular interval. The race did produce consecutive winners of the KD in 1994 & 1995 with the stakes’ 1993 & 1994 winners Go For Gin and Thunder Gulch.
Since 1994 Remsen winners have been out in the cold. Bluegrass Cat has recorded the best finish of any Remsen winner or runner up since 1994. He found Barbaro in a mean mode in the 2006 KD and had to settle for 2nd. The 2015 impressive Remsen winner Mohaymen found Nyquist in the KD is just as mean a mode as ws in the FL Derby and he settled for 4th.
The above addresses the exploits of Remsen winners in the KD since 1994. What about the KD exploits of the runner ups?
There have been some nice Remsen runner ups –
Frosted finished 4th in the 2015 KD under a handling that left a lot to be desired.
Normandy Invasion finished 4th in the 2013 KD. Surprisingly, this son of Tapit didn’t stay the trip.
Mucho Macha Man finished 3rd in the 2011 KD. He was amongst those on the board the victims on Animal Kingdom.
Runner ups in the Remsen have recorded modest finishes in the KD since 1994. But none have cracked the top 2 slots. Is Zandon the caliber colt to distinguish himself form past Remsen runner up in the KD? I doubt he is good enough to so do. Why?
Despite the space encroachments by the pint size Mo Donegal. Zandon should have prevailed. He is significantly more physically imposing than Mo Donegal and shouldn’t have allowed a smaller guy to bounce him around. Further, it is very difficult to determine how Remsen top performers will figured elsewhere. The final time for the Remsen varies significantly year to year. Times can differ as much as 3 seconds.
Brooklyn Strong, Mohaymen and Overanalyze won the Remsen in 1:50+ and all were blow away in the KD. Much Macho Man finished 2nd in a time of 1:50+ and he finished a decent 3rd.
Mo Donegal and Zendon were heads on in 1:53.61. By how much should this time be adjusted for the funky Big A surface particularly during the winter months? The 1995 KD winner Thunder Gulch won the 1994 Remsen in 1:53.80. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 107. Mo Donegal and Zendo were assigned 97. The 1994 KD winner Go for Gin won the Remsen by 8L in 1:52.79. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 105.
Ranking a Remsen runner up this high seems a stretch. But it’s the KD and a winner can emerge from where least expected.
The highly regarded Known Agenda finished 3rd by 9L in the 2020 Remsen which was completed in 1:50.60. His approximate final time would be in the region of 1:52 plus. He was elevated to the #1 ranking after his FL Derby in 1:49.45. He was about 3 seconds faster in the FL Derby than the Remsen. He finished amongst the also ran in the KD.
Are you really going to highlight 20 horses again?……You have done this for years……..about 18 yrs ive seen you pick…….none of your horses have hit the top 3…………tell them……i’m not exaggerating………that is more paragraphs than WAR AND PEACE has in it…..
I see Pappacap taking the Lecomte.
He has the best resume in the lineup, and should he run same he should emerge the winner. Our burden is to find the longshot in the field thatis capable of outrunning him or tagging him at the line. It will not be easy but that’s the only way to make a positive ROI on the race.
I only bet 3yos and only when I have a clear opinion. I also have a standard bet.
200 Win A
5 Exacta A > B
20 Exacta B > A
I understand there are more profitable strategies. This is just where I am in my 29th year of betting thoroughbreds.
If it works, go for it!
Nobody is pointing a gun at your (or anyone’s) head to force a bet on the race.
Steve, in you past years when you have been doing this list, how has the №1 on the first weekly ranking done come Kentucky Derby time?
I havent kept tabs on it. A number of them got hurt and fell off the trail. Prrobably not that great. Hard keeping a horse No. 1 for that long.
Speaking for myself, I know that horses I like in January for the Derby aren’t usually the ones I like in March. And they are certainly not the ones I like on Derby day. We all do this for fun, right? I’d be willing to bet that Steve’s #1s in January are rarely (if ever) #1 in his final ranking. Steve has a excellent record with his final #1s.
He does for sure.
Hi Brudder… I keep a spreadsheet registering how Steve’s ranking changed every week since 2010.
I have reported in the authentic BloodHorse’s Derby Dozen blog (as Native Dancer searchable under Disqus app.) how injuries, going out of form and not getting enough points have impacted Steve’s first ranking.
To just answer your query I am sharing the following brief table
Year #1 1st Rank. Status on Last Rank
2010 Buddy’s Saint knocked off the Derby trail in mid-March after a right ankle chip was discovered following a workout at Gulfstream.
2011 Uncle Mo Top Horse. Last minute Scratch from Derby. Bothered by a stomach problem, but vets couldn’t find a reason for his decreased appetite, energy and poor-looking coat.
2012 Creative Cause Ended up Number One
2013 Violence Knocked Off the Kentucky Derby Trail with Fractured Sesamoid in FEBRUARY
2014 Cairo Prince Out with ankle strain in APRIL
2015 Texas Red Off the trail with no time to recover from foot issues in MARCH
2016 Greenpointcrusader Not enough points (7th in the Louisiana Derby)
2017 Classic Empire 4th in final DD ranking.
2018 Good Magic 2nd in final DD ranking.
2019 Game Winner 2nd in final DD ranking.
2020 Dennis’ Moment Off the trail due to being Out of form/mind?!!???
2021 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 3RD in final DD ranking.
Hope this helps…!
Dennis’s Moment…out of his mind. Ha ha ha!
Thanks for your amazing research!
My Pleasure Roberta… the comment slipped because I was copying and pasting the original table in my excel sheet.
Should have edited that primitive assessment… LOL
Wonderful of you to share this information!!!!
Just shows you that January hopefuls are hard to come by in May!
The Elkstone Group LLC homebred, “Joe”, will be going for his 3rd straight win, stretching out to 8.5 furlongs in a 62.5K Allow. OC race at Laurel Park, on Sunday, 1-23. He’s breaking from the rail, but with this short field (6), that shouldn’t present a problem. He’s a grinder type, with a nice closing kick which he displayed last out, in the 7F, Maryland Juvenile Championship Stakes on 12-18. Mr. Haskin devoted a paragraph on Joe, in his KOTD segment which I was delighted to see.
I have more than a passing interest in Joe moving forward. I’ve got a Derby Futures $50.00 win bet on him at 200-1 odds.
Pipedream? Without a doubt.
Good luck, Bill.
Thanks Steve, I’m hoping to see a big effort by Joe, on Sunday. Fingers and toes crossed. 🙂
Go Joe Go!
Thanks for your support EddieF.
Bob has a threesome running same (mdn) race Sat…$2.6 million dollar Nyquist/Smart Strike colt Bletchly Park is one of them….
I don’t ever again want to see “Bob” and “threesome” in the same sentence.
lol
I have a bias against deep closers, especially in the Kentucky Derby. But I’m baffled by the omission of Steve’s #15, Oviatt Class, from KDFW2. He should have been included over the 50-1 shots Emmanuel, High Oak, and Varatti. Emmanuel is a debut winner of a one-turn mile race. High Oak failed dismally in the 7f Hopeful in September and has yet to race since then. Varatti last raced also in September, when he won his debut at 6.5f. OC, on the other hand, has been competitive vs. top class colts.
Totally agree about Oviatt Class. Bad omission and he’s the kind of horse you would bet at a huge price. I dont think he’ll come as far back. Ran OK closer to the pace in the Sham, just not suited to a small field and two Baffert speed horses. As for High Oak, more info oh him and the Hopeful next week.
I like OC- a runner!
Oviat Class reminds me of Giacomo.
As Steve said, he will eventually find the favorable pace setup which is currently absent in California (i.e. small fields and moderate pace)…
As discussed with Davids we would love to see a Desormeaux headline on Derby day.
I had like OC initially, but I am now convinced he isn’t a KD prospect. He is just too slow. He worked 59+ ahead of the BCJ and never showed any amount of either tactical or closing speed in the race.
Given his sire and dam sire displayed good tactical speed, it appears he hasn’t inherited much from both. His stride turnover rate for a deep closer is slow and he appears to be lumbering in the lane against quality opponents.
I disagree he compares to fellow deep closer Giacomo. The Holy progeny had better stride mechanics and was much more energy efficient.
OC should probably be directed to turf.
My post concerned inclusion in KDFW2.
Bombs away for me, in this week’s Lecomte, on Call Me Midnight–20-1! Nov 13th looked impressive, winning maiden from far back, and into soft fractions—wheeled back in two weeks, at 45-1 in a Churchill stakes race from the far outside 11-post—he ran widest, and finished a better-then-looked seventh…..his work pattern is what I like to see—two 4 fur and three 5 fur—all better than the one before–Call Me Midnight looks like a good 20-1 proposition!
He also bobbled a bit coming out of the gate, which never is good from the 11 post. And, yes, he was wide every step of the way and did close to within 4 lengths of the leaders at the 5/16 pole while widest of all. And Keith Desormeaux is a tricky and shrewd trainer. Tough spot, but I can see him running a good race. Good luck.
Seems most years Desormeaux has something good, his Oviatt Class is built for the 10 furlongs! Was finishing into a soft pace, in the Sham, and Call Me Midnight is flying under the radar—both have racing experience, and when the fields get larger, it tends to even things out, for a closer!
Not to forget Kent Desormeaux either. One of the rare US jockeys who thinks ‘on his feet’ and can destroy a race with a brilliant ride. Dangerous colt in Oviatt Class, with a jockey/trainer combo who deserve to succeed. Are the racing gods watching?
Closer inspection of Call Me Midnight—showed improvement at Keeneland in October, passing two and not losing much ground into a :30 flat last 5/16……then the big win under Graham (Saturday rider), shading :25 last 1/4….both times fast finishes for dirt races….wheeled back in two weeks and very wide trip in stakes race….
Five works since: :50 flat…:49 3/5…1:02 2/5…1:01 4/5…1:00 3/5…I think this guy is ready to outrun his odds, wide draw isn’t good, but there are some nice angles, here—20-1 looks like a chicken dinner! Others have better numbers, hence the big price—Fairgrounds last race Saturday going to scrub up in preparation for a delicate “cashecktomy”!
PS—-Please don’t anybody tell Matress Mac!
Matt,
I do not share your optimism regarding this colt’s prospect of upsetting in the Lecomte.. This coming from a longshot hunter.
If he had sustained his gallop in the lane, he would have a shot. But he weakened from 4 1/2L off the leader to finish 10L 7th. There is a difference between maintaining position in the lane and losing same. His fading isn’t an encouraging sign.
MSW at CD – Distance 8F
10th October – Trafalgar 1st – Fractions – 22.39; 44.82; 1:09.13; 1:22.11; 1:35.61
13th November – Call Me M/N 1st – Fractions – 23.05; 46.39; 1:11.61; 1:24.32; 1:36.93
Interestingly, Call Me Midnight got a higher Equibased figure for his win i.e., 89 compared to Trafalgar’s 88. Let’s assume condition wee different although the surface was labeled Fast on both days. Is CMM 1.5 seconds faster than Trafalgar who is 5/1 on the ML?
In Trafalgar’s 3 career starts he was assigned Equibase figures in the eighties. CMM was assigned 49 ,51 & 82. It took him 5 start to break his maiden. With less experience Trafalgar won the 2nd time of asking.
I could have use serval other the potential longshot as a comparison. But I just wanted to point out there is a better longshot prospect. He might not be 20/1 but 5/1 isn’t bad.
As usual this isn’t an attempt to get you off your longshot choice. But rather to bring some measure of calm. Good luck with CMM. He might nedd oire than luck. A miracle could land him in front at the line. And those have been known to occur.
1) I like the work pattern, looks like horse was patiently prepared for this race.
2) I didn’t look at his first 3 races I looked at his last 3 races.
3) Comparing those two maiden races, CMM’s race was…2.48 slower at 6fur….2.21 slower at 7fur….1.32 slower at the finish—AND CMM was coming from behind—finishing
4) Wheeled back in 2 weeks/ very wide trip…..
5) Sometimes ya just gotta go for it!
6) HOW did you know my real name is NeddOire????
Hi Steve
I was wondering if you have any thoughts on this weekend’s Lecomte Stakes, at the Fair Grounds. I noticed in your Week 1 Rankings, you Pappacap at #4 (9/5), Epicenter at #12 (2-1) and Trafalgar at #16 (6-1), in which case, is it safe to predict that Pappacap is your top choice in the race? With respect to the two favorites, I’m leaning to Epicenter because Steve Asmussen is his trainer, and Joel Rosario is in the saddle. My longshot pick is Unified Report, at 12-1 on the M/L. He’s undefeated in 3 starts, and his pedigree is top notch, IMO.
I’d appreciate any thoughts you might have on the G3, Lecomte Stakes.
Thanks Steve.
Not picking this race because it is too Derby Rankings heavy, and there are a couple of others who could run bang-up races. I just would love to see one or two horses stand out.
Thanks for the reply Steve
Yes indeed, there are 6 horses that look competitive in the Lecomte, Epicenter, Pappacap, Unified Report, Trafalgar, Cyberknife and Surfer Dude, IMO. Safe trips to all, and may the best horse win!
Come Saturday evening, all will be hailing Chief Asmussen’s shrewd strategy of using Epicenter as his rabbit for his other entry, the soon to be residential (in Steve’s Derby Dozen) Presidential! Lol
You just might be on to something Point Unforgiven. Presidential has a Dosage Index of 11.00 which, in theory, indicates an abundance of speed, but has yet to be displayed, (see prior races). If I recall correctly, former KD winner, Nyquist, had a Dosage Index of 7.00, with sufficient stamina influence to be successful going long. I realize Dosage Profiles, Dosage Index and CD are pretty much a thing of the past, but the Thoroughbred Database, Pedigree Online continues to list them on any given horse.
Possibly, the speed that wasn’t there in his two previous races, will show up in the Lecomte.
Good luck.
You’re looking at one heckuva exacta, Bill, should your preferred longshot, Unified Report, finish in the top two with the other less heralded Asmussen entry! Also agree with your comment on dosage being a thing of the past. However, if I’m not mistaken, Steve has previously offered up the argument that, had the folks who determine the horses that get designated as “chef-de-race” sires, kept more up-to-date listings, their dosage/dosage index may well have far more relevancy.
You’re right Point Unforgiven, Unified Report/Presidential (boxed) would make a nice exacta payout. I’ll take a shot at that.
Thanks for the heads up.
I suspect that 8F races at the Indiana Grand Oval involves negotiating 2turns. If Presidential had won in 1:37+, he would have a punchers chance. He isn’t fast enough to win the Lecomte. Revisit the profile of past winners.
$625k purchase didn’t exactly have a ground-saving trip in his maiden romp at the end of August. A win in which he had a significant speed figure improvement from his debut three weeks prior. Is it likely he’ll make a similar leap forward in the Lecomte on Saturday? No, but at 15/1 or higher am willing to take a shot.
I would think that Mr. A isn’t inclined to send his high-priced stock to debut in Indiana. But Presidential obviously has ability and you’ll get very good odds. Stranger things have happened in horse racing. Good luck!
Hello Steve – I read that Jim Mcingvale is going to put another large bet on Smile Happy in KDFW2. just as he did on SH in KDFW1 which landed him at underlay odds of 8-1. I am glad that Mattress Mack is hammering Smile Happy in the KDFW because this will make the horse that I bet much higher because of this. I am sure that the field option will get hammered down again because of all the Baffert horses which are not listed.
I texted Jim and told him he didnt have to put all the money on him just because I have him raked No. 1. When he told me how much he lost on the Alabama/George game this is chicken feed.
Mattress Mack lost $2.7 million (that’s right…..MILLION) on Alabama and lost another $2 Million on the Patriots in futures betting for the Super Bowl…..in all less than a week.
Yikes.
In less than a week? My gawd! It takes me a whole month to lose $4.7 million.
Yep….lost another $3.5 million on the Astros in last year’s WS on top of the $13 million he lost on the Astros on the 2019 WS and the $1 million he lost on the 49ers on the 2020 SB and the money he lost betting against the KC Chiefs in the NFL playoffs the last couple of years…hoowever he did win $3.4 on Tampa Bay in last year’s SB.
What’s he going to do on Derby day? 3-1 morning line for SH, off at 1-1? 🙂
Ranking Smile Happy at 1 carries a greater historic burden than most.
What do KD winners Count Turf, Needles, Ferdinand and Mine That Bird have in common? They were sired by a son of a KD winner.
Count Turf (1951) was sired by Count Fleet a son of the 1928 KD winner Reigh Count
Needles (1956) was sired by Ponder a son of the 1944 KD winner Pensive.
Ferdinand (1986) was sired by Nijinsky ll who was a son of the 1964 KD winner Northern Dancer
Mine That Bird (2009) was sired by Birdstone the son of 1996 KD winner Grindstone.
What can be garnered from the short list above? Two significant things.:
(a) KD winners sired by sons of a KD winner are few and far between. If my research is correct. Only 4 such KD winners have emerged in the last 70 years.
(b) The sons of the KD winners that sired a KD winner were accomplished routers. Count Fleet the sire of Count Turf was himself a KD winner. Ponder the sire of Needles was also a KD winner. Nijinsky ll the sire of Ferdinand was the 1970 British TC winner. Birdstone the sire of Mine That Bird was a Belmont and Travers winner.
Run Happy the sire of Smile Happy never won beyond 7F. In his 2 attempts at 8F and longer he was found wanting. This doesn’t argue well for the #1 ranked Smile happy, irrespective of his undefeated record.
In Smile Happy’s debut win at Keeneland, the internal fractions were pedestrian. The final time of 1:44.75 was modest at best. He could not have been running against much. In his win in the KJCS the internal fractions were slightly faster but were not of G1 status. Again, Smile Happy appeared to have been the best of a modest group.
I am of the opinion this colt will be over bet next out and should he meet quality opponents he will be a possible false favorite. But my assessments readily don’t matter as I lack evaluation expertise. But sometimes history can be a guide.
If not a SINGLE Kentucky Derby winner in the past 70 years was sired by a son of a KD winner, then I’d take notice. Not much notice, but some. Did you collect data on the total number of Derby starters that were sired by a son of a Derby winner and the win percentage?…compared to the much larger population of Derby starters that were not sired by a son of a Derby winner?
What a shock. He doesnt like my No. 1. I cant believe that. Oh, wait, He has always knocked my No. 1. Never mind. After all, how in the world did Smarty Jones, Big Brown, California Chrome and several others win the Derby being sired by a sprinter. As they say, a leopard never loses his spots. I would actually be crushed if he ever agreed with a No. 1.
LOL. If he ever agreed with a No. 1? Not in this life.
lol
What was learnt from Concert Tour’s last place finish in the Fifth Season Listed Stakes on Saturday? Most might want to know the relevance of this question. Well, since the 3YOs in the barn of the trainer banned from submitting entrants to the KD for 2022 & 2023, they will have to be transferred. This raises the concerns about transfers from a High-Tech bran.
Knick’s Go entered the barn of Brad Cox with a resume that was worse than that of Concert Tour. Brad resurrected Knicks Go’s career and he is now the favorite for the 2021 HOTY Eclipse. It wouldn’t be a stretch to conclude that given Brad’s BOW with Knick’s Go and Monomoy Girl, he is the man to resurrect career. So why has Cox failed so miserably with his latest transfer from the High-Tech barn of the sanctioned trainer?
Concert Tour isn’t the first transfer from the sanctioned trainer’s barn to Brad Cox. Godolphin’s brilliant Tapit colt Coliseum who burst onto the scene with an impressive debut win over 7F at Del Mar, was also a transferred to Cox. By the time he got Cox’s barn he had made 3 starts with his last being a 3rd place finish in the San Vicente. A lot had happened ahead of the transfer. The sanctioned trainer seems to have lost the handle on the the impressive debut winner and he was gelded and turned out. Unfortunately, when he reached the barn of the resurrection trainer, he couldn’t work his magic on Coliseum and once highly regarded Tapit progeny was unable resume its racing career. He was 3 and done. What went wrong with the colt/gelding remains unknown.
When Concert Tour was being touted as a serious KD prospect. I couldn’t understand how a colt sired by Street Sense and out of a Tapit mare could win 6F in 1:10+. Street Sense won the KD closing from 19th. Despite Tapit being a brilliant sire, he was average at best as a racehorse and was in fact slow. A time of 1:10 for 6F isn’t consistent with CT’s pedigree. But what do I know pedigrees?
I have good friend who loves the sectioned trainer. Back then I asked him how CT was so fast given his pedigree. Obviously, he referenced the genius of the the sanctioned trainer. Well, I didn’t pull my punches and advised him that I was of the opinion the colt was chemically enhanced. He requested proof and I calmly advised that in time the colt will be unable to get out of its own way. I have seen the script before.
It didn’t take long. Following his smashing win in the Rebel. His physicals appearance for the AK Derby left a lot to be desired and not surprisingly he delivered a sub-par performance. He was freshened for the Preakness in which he defeated one opponent whilst finishing 34L behind the winner. For trainer Brad Cox of Knocks Go resurrection fame, he managed to finish 18L closer but on this occasion, he had no opponent behind.
There isn’t a lot of transfer history associated the sanctioned trainer. His loyal owners usually opt to retire their horses instead of trying another trainer when they go sour. Art Sheman did get Dortmund, but the colt was quickly retired thereafter. The record of Bazos and Hosier who were transferred after the MS positive and the subsequent CD ban, have not been good. These were once promising colts.
I content there is cause for concern with transfers from the sanctioned trainer’s barn. His program is very High Tech and is demanding on his horses. A change in program takes time to achieve the desired results. Particularly with transferees thar have been on a High-Tech diet.
Interesting days are ahead for the impacted 3YOs.
I assumed concert tour was going to be another one of those “brilliant” colts who tailed off into nothing. He made enough noise he might get a stud deal, but since high tech brilliance doesn’t seem to signal a stellar career, I foresee he will shortly end up in a far lesser market.
I didnt realize Concert Tour was a 3 year old. How did he sneak in here?
Agreed! He will ignore,as usual.
Steve, I remember Gainesway’s main interest in obtaining Tapit as a sire, besides the pedigree, was his brilliant turn of foot, acceleration. Slow he was not. Lol.
Please explain relevance.
I’ve already told you to stick with the subject matter. Concert Tour doesnt belong here at this early stage. If you want deviate from the subject in the closing days ike Saturday or Sunday thats fine, but right now we’re talking Derby.
Mr. Haskin his agenda is being rude.
The administrator is watching him closely.
Good deal!
Concert Tour had already run some duds for the White Haired Wizard….Tapit wasn’t what I’d call an average racehorse, he had a wide trip in the Wood Memorial, and still won…had another wide trip in the Kentucky Derby–he didn’t win, maybe he wasn’t good enough but he was not average. As a sire he has become a stamina influence, and then some!
Matthew, anyone who thinks Tapit was ‘slow’ as a racehorse is either kidding themselves or lacks any understanding of horse racing. You’re totally correct in your assessment of Tapit. Knocking Tapit is part of CF’s modus operandi. You cringe reading such silliness but that’s life. Ha ha Here’s a brief snippet from Steve Haskin’s “The Tapit No one Knows.”
“Michael Hernon, former director of sales at Gainesway Farm, recalled, “I remember watching [Tapit] win the Laurel Futurity and going straight to the books to look up his pedigree. That really impressed me. Then you see names like Relaunch and Foggy Note and Mahmoud. Once a horse shows that kind of brilliance and acceleration you know he has it. He had that smooth as silk acceleration, and he’s also got the pedigree and the physical attributes, and he’s got a great libido. His fertility rate is very high.”
Knicks go ran great……his last race for previous trainer……he woke up before the switch…..
And so it begins again. Cheers to Steve and the journey ahead.
Many thanks to Steve for his insightful analysis. As I pour over the past performances and replays, the printed-out Derby Rankings are by my side. I can’t disagree much about any of the top 16 as solid considerations for the Derby. I may quibble about placement by a few spots. For example, I wouldn’t have RNR so high until he proves that he has overcome the hoof problem. I recall reading an article around Thanksgiving time where McPeek said that RNR would be resuming training in about a week. He didn’t, and the colt still shows no workouts. But his performance in the Breeders Futurity ranks with Slow Down Andy’s Los Al Futurity, Pappacap and Giant Game’s second and third in the BCJ, and Smile Happy’s KJC as the most impressive in 2-turn graded stakes so far.
Smile Happy is a deserving #1. Considering that I may have been the only one here who talked about him immediately after his debut win, I’ll have a right to brag when he enters the Derby winner’s circle. As always, should he get nowhere near ANY winner’s circle, I will disavow any knowledge of my early support. All related comments will self-destruct.
My favorite name among the 16: TRAFALGAR, son of LORD NELSON. As for SIR LONDON, I expect him to be highly ranked very soon. Cheerio!
[Still trying to reply to Nelson’s post below. No luck after three attempts. I promise that I didn’t say any of George Carlin’s seven words you can never say on television]
Toodle pip!!
How did THAT get through????
😉
Oh, never mind. I thought you wrote “Poodle tip!”
I gave RNR the benefit of the doubt because McPeek said on January 10th that he would work “this weekend or next.” and was pointing fo the TB Derby. If he doesnt work this weekend he will drop down. He was a sleeper horse and I think he could be special, but he has to get on the work tab…now!
For sure regarding RNR.
He’ll be working in the next couple of days.
Good! Looking forward.
“Considering that I may have been the only one here who talked about him immediately after his debut win”
I am sure you meant to state write about the colt. Which fact you are the first to highlight the colt. The owner of his sire placed $10,000 on him and I think that propelled him to favoritism in the KD Future Pool #1.
There is no need to the disclaimer if the colt doesn’t win the KD. He has big hurdle to cross.
Yes, I should have written “wrote.” To be clear, I did talk about Smile Happy but I don’t think my dog was listening.
lol
waiting 4 May
I just tried to post a comment and got this:
A potentially unsafe operation has been detected in your request to this site
Your access to this service has been limited. (HTTP response code 403)
If you think you have been blocked in error, contact the owner of this site for assistance.
I assume everything is good now
No problem with any other post. The problem was just with my original reply (and repeated attempts) to Nelson’s post. It’s very odd.
Tod Pletcher has gained the reputation of being the trainer of choice if you wanted to see your silks flashed in the Derby. He has participated in every Derby except one (2003) since 2000. The Hall of Fame Trainer flaunts an average of 3 starters per year and the record of having five (5) starters two times in the Derby.
So, with that history in mind, anyone engaged early in the Derby trail would be asking himself/herself which horses Pletcher will be starting in the first leg of US Triple Crown…
Pletcher (as he has always done) will have to wisely allocate at least 14 hopefuls among eight (8) racetracks offering Derby qualifying points. I am not counting his horses training in New York or the ones running on turf/synthetic though.
With proven Stakes horses Commandperformance and Wit still to start serious training I am compelled to check on the ones working steadily.
The following are the last workouts of twelve 3-year-old prospects training at Palm Beach Downs for Pletcher.
Horse Sire Date Dist. Time Rank
Mo Donegal Uncle Mo 1/15/2022 5F 1:01.26 4/14
IN THE UNION Union Rags 1/2/2022 4F 49.72 11/16 debut winner on Jan. 8th at Tampa
Shinnecock Hills Quality Road 1/8/2022 5F 1:01.25 10/11
Macallan Quality Road 1/8/2022 5F 59.78 1/11
Emmanuel More Than Ready 1/15/2022 4F 48.43 1/22
American Icon Gun Runner 1/14/2022 4F 48.48 1/19
Dean’s List Speightstown 12/30/20214F 49.12 3/13 debut winner on Jan. 8th at Gulfstream
Major General Constitution 1/14/2022 3F 37.55 1/2 Second workout since Sep 11
My Prankster Into Mischief 1/15/2022 5F 1:02.05 10/14
Varatti Into Mischief 1/17/2022 3F 37.09 3/6 First workout since Sep 25
Charge It Tapit 1/2/2022 4F 49.31 7/16 Promising second in (a mile) debut on Jan. 8th at GP
Iron Works Distorted Humor 1/2/2022 4F 49.31 7/16
Provocateur Into Mischief 1/8/2022 4F 48.39 3/25 Second in the Pasco Stakes
From this group I believe that Charge It, Major General and American Icon will be advancing to the first Saturday in May.
Again, whether Pletcher is poised to win his third Derby in 2022 is a more baffling problem…!
…as well, Pletcher would appear an obvious choice to receive Baffert trained colts, heading for the Kentucky Derby, should the Californian trainer be prevented from doing so himself.
Horses stabled in California likely will stay in SoCal—unless owners keep other horses back east …owners like to be there, when they run.
Yes Matthew, that’s how I see it. The only Baffert colts that could be transferred to trainers in the East are those liable to run first or second in the major prep races – 170 pointers. Conversely, which Californian trainer do you believe is most liable to receive a colt from Bob Baffert’s barn to run in the Santa Anita Derby?
All dependent, on what happens with the CDI ban over the next few months.
Gosh, I was wondering about that.. .Mike McCarthy!
Mike McCarthy was my pick as well.
Excellent choice. But the transfer should be made only on the condition that the horse is not returned to the BB barn.
My reply to your position is courteously posted below …
Yes David… transferring Baffert horses is an interesting topic this year. I will have to review the relationship of the owners with other Trainers to try forecasting who will be deputizing.
i.e. Starlight Racing and Stonestreet, who are co-owners of Messier and Newgrange had great success with Pletcher and Asmussen respectively.
Speedway Stables LLC moved Roadster to Michael Stidham. Cox and Rodolphe Brisset are also very good options… who knows?
*Speedway the owner of Corniche
Do you think that BB horses will be moved to a new trainer for good? I don’t understand why a top trainer with integrity and self-respect would take on a BB horse just for the Derby, then have it returned to BB. Imagine if the horse WINS the Derby.
It is a odd situation… however, I feel like the owners are the key players in this misadventure and they should not be punished… Trainers profess respect for the owners and collaboration to fulfill their aspirations
I respectfully differ from your opinion. I do not see shame in being a “surrogate” trainer specially if there is tacit understanding among al stakeholders.
Whatever happens with Baffert horses in the Derby and Belmont no one will be denying his influence on developing them…
I remember Baffert sending Du Jour (owned by his wife) to Bill MOTT to race in Belmont, Saratoga and Kentucky Downs.. the son of Temple City returned to Baffert in December. Self respect and Integrity was immaculate in both camps…
Why not replicate that professional switch with other horses ?
* an odd and lamentable situation indeed
True that horses are occasionally sent to other trainers to race in different regions of the country. But there’s a significant difference between the BB suspension situation and transfers such as Du Jour. It sure will be fascinating to see how all of this plays out. I hope it doesn’t detract too much from the more traditional Derby excitement. But it probably will. 🙁
I think you answered your own question in your last sentence. The reason why other trainers “would take on a BB horse just for the Derby” is to “Imagine if the horse WINS the Derby.”
I suppose a Derby win is a Derby win, even if a controversy is attached to it.
I feel the sentiment you are alluding to here was lost in the midst of time. A win IS e everything these days.
That didn’t happen with Life is Good. But then, LIG didn’t run in the Derby. Personally, I’d love to see Newgrange transferred to Asmussen.
Right. Life Is Good has stayed with Pletcher, but as you said, he wasn’t moved to qualify for the Derby.
Yes, indeed. I’d like Steve Asmussen to win as well. An Asmussen win might also encourage the European fashion of plaiting manes. Allez, Asmussen!!
The ultimate KD prep trainer. He can get them to the big dance, but they just do not deliver.
Yes CF.. the subpar performance of his horses in the Derby is one of the mysteries of Horse Racing in US…!
His finish line appears to be in April…
Good one!
There is a long list of highly respected trainers who have never won a Kentucky Derby, let alone two. The Kentucky Derby is a race where luck, more than any other ingredient, appears to hold sway. Pletcher has had eight other runners who have managed to get ‘on the board.’ With a bit more, ‘luck,’ Pletcher may well be holding the record.
I don’t believe that his low win percentage can be ignored. He brings many horses to the Derby that he knows have little to no chance. An interesting subset of his Derby stats is that he’s never won the Derby on a fast track…from a total of 36 starters. He could be praying for rain.
I think it would have taken A LOT of luck to be anywhere near BB’s Derby record.
Pletcher holds the record for the most Eclipse Awards as a trainer. Seven times to Baffert’s four. Why is that? There’s your answer.
What was the question? 😮
Nelson, I tried several times (with modifications) to post a reply. Rewriting didn’t help. Part of my reply concerned TP’s excellent record on off tracks at the Derby. At first I thought that my reference to “wet Derbies” may have been mistaken for “wet Debbies,” but a rewrite brought the same blocking notice.
Anyway, keeping this short, I thank you for the workout rundown of TP horses. Would you care to explain why you chose the three colts as the likeliest Derby runners?
Thanks again EddieF for your positive exchanges.
At this stage (once the talent is evident) I am just speculating about the best pedigrees for the 10F… I also believe they got the right running style…
how they are trending in their training is another aspect I try to decipher.
Regarding Mo Donegal, I am waiting to see how he bounces after a grueling duel in the Remsen.
Given the quality of horses in Pletcher’s barn it is difficult to sort them out… but I don’t think he can make a son of Into Mischief win a Derby… perhaps with Quality Road he can… but right now Charge It seems to be the one.
Thanks for the explanation, Nelson. Yes, those three colts are bred for the distance. I love American Icon. His sire had a pretty good year. 😉 It’s a good sign for Mo Donegal that Pletcher has him in Florida and not NY. Mo is slated to be in the Holy Bull.
I have a microshare in Chasing Time & love your analysis on him. Hope he continues to stay in your Derby Rankings.
Below I made a case for Markhamian the recent PSCO winner. I am firmly of the opinion that the $25,000 purchase who sports a DOB od May 29th, will be a force in the Sam Davis and Tampa Bay Derby and is likely to end up in the KD barring misfortune.
His sire Social Inclusion was brilliantly fast and his dam sire Colonel John has an interesting KD pedigree. Not from the perspective of his sire Tiznow but rather his dam sire the Alydar stallion Turkorman.
Colonel John finished a decent 6th in the 2008 KD. The 2007 KD runner up Hard Spun was produced from a Turkoman mare Turkish Tryst. Point Given the post time favorite for the 2001 KD and eventual Preakness and Belmont winner was produced from the Turkoman mare Turko’s Tune. So, my theory is that Turkoman being so close in the dam line of Markhamian could be influential. Well, since no one really knows what makes them exceptional, any theory is plausible.
But I digressed from my intended post which is to highlight my secret weapon Gilded Age trained by Bill Mott. It’s not very often one sees Bill with a $600,000 yearling. Nothing suggests this colt should even be in KD argument at this time. Given Bill Mott’s KD history. He is unlikely to win another KD with a top 12 entrant. His only KD winner came via the disqualification of Maximum Security. He has been in the business a very long time.
Apart from Mott’s record. There is the profile of Gilded Age. It’s not one of a likely KD. His sire Medaglia D Oro is better at siring top class fillies. Songbird and Rachel are a testament to this fact. But it’s never too late for the old guy to grace us brilliant colt. Mr. Prospector was an old stallion when he sired sired Fupeg. On a more positive note, Gilded Age’s dam sire Bernardini, is proving to be exception in this category, so there is hope for this colt. Who knows, maybe with a money trail that features millions, this colt could be flying under the radar for my personal benefit. How ambitious and self-serving can one be?
Gilded Age got his clock cleaned by both Rattle and Roll (17L) and Giant Game (7 1/4L). What in the world does crazy Coldfacts see in this colt? Money, Money, Money. He was purchased for $600,000 with his breeder appearing to retain a %. His dam was purchased in foal to Bernarding for $1,950,00 and her dam was purchased for $3,000,000. If money make the world goes round. There is plenty associated with Gilded Age. It appears there is more money than talent which seem to be always the case with the majority of expensive purchases with high profile pedigrees.
Despite being destroyed by Rattle and Roll and Giant Game who went on to acquit themselves well in their respective Gaded Stakes debuts. Gilded Age maiden breaker was assigned a speed figure that was within the same ballpark as those assigned to Rattle and Roll and Giant Game. Given the steady improvement he has displayed in his last 2 starts and his 3 reported work in 2022. I will be on Gilded Age like white on rice wherever he shows up for his 3YO debut. I think he is sneakily good but appears to be a late bloomer ala County House.
RE: G3, Lecomte Stakes, Fair Grounds, 1-22 (R14)
This could come down to a match race between Epicenter (2-1) and Pappacap (9/5), but if you’re looking for value, at double digit odds, I suggest Dallas Stewart’s colt, Unified Report at 12-1. He’s undefeated in three career starts, his latest win being the 6 furlong Lou. Champ. Day Juv. Stakes on 12-1. The tail-female side of his pedigree has a lot of class influence from legendary breeder Ogden Phipps, (Numbered Account, Majestic Light and Private Account). In addition, there’s Damascus, Key To The Mint, Majestic Prince and Northern Dancer. By Unified, out of a Closing Account mare, Unified Report could turn out to be another Dallas Stewart KD surprise like he had with Commanding Curve, (2nd, 2014 KD at 38-1 odds) and Golden Soul, (2nd, 2013 KD, at 34-1 odds). I will definitely box Unified Report with Pappacap and Epicenter in a fairly large Trifecta.
Safe trips to all.
I failed to mention Unified Report is currently 300-1 at Circa (Vegas), but not listed in Derby Futures Pool 2.
Good afternoon, Bill,
All the best for the new year and may all your wagers be fruitful.
There are a few trainers that have gained my respect for certain feats. One is Dale Romans and another is Albert Stall. I will take a shot with their entrants anytime.
Romans was not deterred when American Pharoah defeated Keen Ice in the KD, Belmont and Haskell. He tried again in the Travers and nailed AP close home. Few will acknowledge that Keen Ice and Romans were the only combination to defeat the TC winner during his 3YO career.
Albert Stall ended the undefeated streak of Zenyatta with Blame for which he is yet to receive credit. Before Zenyatta he took down Quality Road in his backyard.
With above stated. Albert Stall has Trafalgar in the Lecomte. A MSW winner over a mile at CD in 1:35.61. To achieve his 2 1/2L victory Trafalgar closed from 10th in the field of 13 whilst chasing serious internal fractions of 22 ,44, 1:09 & 1:22. His followed-up effort was with Lasix over 8 1/2F in which he was less impressive, but he prevailed by HD. I will never understand American trainers. A colt wins in a fast time with 119Lbs. He then is administered Lasix for his next start, and he runs significantly slower with 117lbs. But this America where craziness abounds.
Trafalgar must have checked a lot of boxes. The Lord Nelson colt was initially purchased for $100,000 and then resold at a 2YO in training sale for $300,000. With 2 wins nd 2nd from 3 starts. This colt appears to have a ton of ability. In the hands of Albert Stall, he is likely to take down a lot of top dogs. All this trainer needs is talent and he will do the rest. He has a talented one in Trafalgar.
Theee are no Zenyatta in the starting lineup. His task is therefore much easier.
Good evening Coldfacts
I hope you’re in good health and cashing few winning tickets. When I checked Trafalgar’s pedigree, the first I noticed was the number of horses named “Trafalgar”, there’re over 40 horses with that name. Three date back to 1803, two which were from the Eclipse line. But, that’s ancient history, and have nothing to do with the current 3yr old named Trafalgar. Just like my sleeper, Unified Report, Trafalgar will be moving up in class, trying to upset the two favorites Pappacap and Epicenter. I like what you had to say about Albert Stall, and if I’m not mistaken, the Fair Grounds is his home base of operations. Trafalgar certainly has a chance to be in the mix when the real racing unfolds. Another colt that looks to be competitive in the Lecomte is Cyberknife, by Gun Runner, out of a Flower Alley mare. He had a bullet 5 furlong work on 1-15, (1:00, 1/41), so it would seem Brad Cox has this colt ready to step up and test for class. So, there you have the top 5 in the Lecomte, (Epicenter, Pappacap, Unified Report, Trafalgar and Cyberknife), IMO.
I’ll key top choice, (Epicenter), with the other four in my superfecta wager. That is: 5/ 2-3-4-6
Good luck Facts.
And now my year has truly started!
LOL. Happy New Year, and away we go
Hi Steve, you’ve already received an abundance of much deserved kudos for the work you do on this site, so I’ll just add my appreciation to the list. Thank you for your time and efforts that go into your derby rankings, all of us look forward to each weeks update!
I’m rooting for Smilte Happy, Zandon, Tiz the Bomb, and a horse that hasn’t been seen since August, HP Moon. He’s had recent works, just not sure when we might see him in a race. But I liked what I saw first out!
I really appreciate it Bruce. Thank you very much.
H P Moon worked at Laurel Park on January 14, 2022. Impressive on debut, that’s my note as well. Good luck.
That’s a wild fact about Fromanothamutha’s pedigree, having two derby runnersup in there. That is very rare for sure. One of my favorite derby winners, I’ll Have Another, has two third-place finishers in his pedigree: Forty Niner and Tom Rolfe.
That should be Pleasant Tap, not Forty Niner (who was 2nd in 1988).
It’s not so much having two Derby runnersup in his pedigree, it’s having two runnersup whose names you rarely if ever see in a pedigree, Aptitude and Sham, both terrific horses, but I cant remember the last time I saw either one in a pedigree
Oh yes, now I understand what you were saying at the end of your column. You are correct for sure the Aptitude and Sham are rarely seen in pedigrees.
You see Sham quite a bit in pedigrees from the 1980s and ’90s. He sired some good daughters. It takes a village to make a great horse.
Big Brown had Native Dancer and Sword Dancer in his pedigree. Both were second in the Derby (Sorry, Nelson!). He also had Damascus and Round Table who were third in the Derby.
Was fan of Big Brown.
Steve Haskin –
Hello. Nice to see Derby Rankings, Week 1, for 2022. Been following your column/blog for about 22 or 23 years now,
and it’s just as good and exciting now as it was back then. Just got back from Las Vegas and Circa Sportsbook.
Made six Kentucky Derby Future Book bets. Don’t make large wagers, either for $50 or $25 amounts.
Ranging from 85-11 to 300-1, as follows:
1. Early Voting. 175-1. Chad Brown. Based in New York.
2. Golden Glider. 85-1. Mark Casse. Based in Florida.
3. Volcanic. 150-1. Mark Casse. Based in Florida.
4. Spin Wheel. 275-1. Rusty Arnold. Based in Florida.
5. Gunfighter. 275-1. Brad Cox. Based in Louisiana.
6. Smarten Up. 300-1. Alfredo Velazquez. Based in New York.
Most of these have only a maiden win on their resume. Still early in their racing careers. Golden Glider, however, has won twice in 2 starts and appears to have off track race potential. Gunfighter is still a maiden but is slated to run Saturday at
Fair Grounds. What I like about this colt is his Ghostzapper-Smart Strike nick. There is a lot of potential in those bloodlines.
As always, good luck with your rankings. It promises to be another exciting and interesting Kentucky Derby year.
7.5 Furlongs
Thanks very much. That’s so kind of you to say. 22 or 23 years. Wow! You’ve been with me from the beginning. And I thank you for that. I’m actually enjoying it more now than I did at the Bloodhorse even though it doesnt get the national exposure it did. But this is the best group ever.
And good luck with your wagers.
I’m looking forward to seeing how Smarten Up performs in his next race. Good luck with your wager.
The thing that caught my eye on this initial list of top 16 Derby contenders is the sires, or lack of certain names that we usually see in a Kentucky Derby contender list over the last handful of years.
No horses sired by Tapit, Into Mischief, Curlin, Quality Road, Speightstown, Medaglia d’Oro, Street Sense, Candy Ride, More Than Ready, Ghostzapper, as they are currently some of the highest priced sires to breed with.
I realize excluding the Baffert horses affected this a little.
Once we know whats happening with those horses the Rankings probably will change quite a bit.
Your 1st Derby Rankings are amazingly well conceived and thought out.
You are just an outstanding story teller and the details you provide in these rankings blow me away.
Just a great 1st list.
I am not concerned about Smile Happy’s bloodline. California Chrome was by Lucky Pulpit (sprinter) and look how good he was.
I believe handicapping today has changed dramatically since the 1960’s & 1970’s. Training methods are different as well. I remember back in the early days Santa Anita had 3 furlong prep races & Hollywood Park had 5 furlong pre races. Those were great races
I still follow racing because I love the horses & I love reading your stories. This way I still feel connected to a long ago lost time.
Thank you so much for the kind words, Deacon. I really appreciate it. With Smile Happy’s female family I couldnt care who his sire is, and as I mentioned, Run Happy’s pedigree is not the pedigree of a sprinter. He just happened to be one and a terrific one.
Run Happy is also a young sire. A recent pattern in the Derby is that the winner is by so-called sprinter/milers such as Into Mischief, Elusive Quality, Holy Bull and End Sweep, usually early in their careers. Why not Run Happy (in spite of his over-promotion in almost every racetrack in America)?
Speed crossed on stamina has long been the american classic cross. Smile Happy fits that profile to a T, smile happy for the speed influence and that long dam line for the ability to cover a route of ground. His sire is well promoted, but honestly, Im ok with that, sponsors are needed and its not like we see a ton of stallion pop up ads on him. Plus Mack does a lot of good in his community. This is a colt I feel happy cheering for.
Excellent compilation.
Two colts I am high on didn’t make the cut. I was of the opinion one could have squeezed into the top 12 and the other in KOTD section.
I came across Markhamian whilst reviewing the entrants for the recently contested Pasco stakes. His two career starts, and DOB made him an extremely interesting colt.
His debut was over 6 1/2F at GP in which he finished 2nd by a HD after pressing the pace with the eventual winner. The final time of 1:19.09 was decent but nothing to suggest a monster in the making from the race. In his 2nd start a week shy of 3 months later. He won by 4 1/2L over the same distance and at the same venue. On this occasion the time final time was 1:16.49. That was almost 2 1/2 seconds faster than his previous effort. The fractions were honest 22, 44 & 1:09+. Was it a case of a faster surface and different wind direction? Possible! But his effort in the Pasco would confirm if he were a fast colt. He would have to be to beat the Todd Pletcher trained Provocateur.
In the 7F Pasco he disputed the pace and a one point appeared beaten approaching the turn of home. But he found extra to slowly draw away from TP’s 2nd choice Provocateur and post time favorite and Inaugural Stakes winner Cattin. His winning time of 1:23.23 was achieved on the back of 22, 44 & 1:09+ fractions.
Folks, when a colt with a DOB of May 29th runs back-to-back races in less than 30 days whilst recording fractions of 22, 44 & 1:09 at 2 different venues. That’s not a colt to be taken lightly. He showed no signs of fatigue in the closing stage of the Pasco after setting blistering internal fractions. This son of Social Inclusion out of a mare sired by the Tiznow stallion Colonel John should stay 10F. Below are some May foals:
Northern Dancer – May 27th
Lookin At Lucky – May 27th
Country House – May 8th
Mina That Bird – May 10th
Authentic – May 9th
Pioneerof The Nile – May 5
Hard Spun – May 10
Whilst there are many more taht could be added to the list. The object of highlighting the above few is to indicate when foals graded as late show exceptional speed and talent to defeat more physically mature opponents. They tend to be those that feature in in the KD. This assuming they stay the distance.
My seconf colt is Gilded Age. He is my secret weapon trained by the great Bill Mott.
With the word count getting way too long, I had a choice of giving a brief mention of the Pasco Stakes just for the sake of mentioning it or waiting for next week and going into more detail, especially with Markhamian’s pedigree. I decided to wait, with only the LeComte Stakes on the schedule
Mr. Haskin, will a couple of horses pop up for Brad Cox?
They’ll have to pop up pretty quickly. Cox didnt sound like he was playing with a strong hand. We’ll see how Cyberknife does Saturday.
Hey, Mike! Maybe one of Baffert’s hopefuls will fall into his lap.
Possible for sure.
Note that the winner of the Pasco raced whilst on first-time Lasix.
Steve, the next four months of your Derby Rankings are just what the doctor ordered in these trying, worrisome times of coping with the Covid pandemic. Here in Melbourne the number of new cases have never been higher to the extent that the fear of picking up the virus is preventing most people leaving the safety of home. I skipped the ballet on Friday night as a precaution.
Let’s forget about reality, start dreaming about racehorses and red roses in May.
Very intriguing 16 first up. One that surprised me is that you had Trafalgar in above Naval Aviator. I felt the opposite, noting that Trafalgar was probably a miler. I like your confidence in Trafalgar though. The Lecomte this Saturday looks a much better race than usual so we’ll see how things pan out from there.
God of Love does look exciting, I agree with everything you have written above. If he takes to the dirt he could be very dangerous, A.P.’s Secret is another Cupid that is showing promise as well.
At this early stage, Zandon, Major General, Zatip, Charge It, Sir London along with God of Love are the colts that intrigue me the most but that could quite easily change within a month. Lol.
Excellent appraisal as always Steve, your input is the best part of the Derby trail. Let’s enjoy the fun the next four months or so.
Thank you David and stay safe. The only reason I didnt rank Naval Aviator is that he hasnt worked since that last race. That’s going on two months. I loved that race and was fully prepared to have him in the Top 16. Then I saw that Brad Cox said his best Derby hopeful is Cyberknife, so for now I have to assume he is off the Derby trail. At some point I will check with Cox.
Thanks Steve, I was wondering when/if Naval Aviator was going to be set for a Derby attempt. An added bonus to this year’s Derby is watching the prominence of 2nd Crop sires impacting on the Derby. Hopefully, many will be represented in May.
Greetings, Steve, and a VERY belated Happy New Year to you and the “Askin'” community. I needed to deal with a family emergency (that’s an understatement, but I’ll leave it at that), and there was no time or inclination for diversions. All is reasonably well now and I returned home yesterday. Today I was overjoyed to see your first Derby Rankings of 2022. Wow! I say it every year…There is no Derby analysis like the Haskin blog, and it’s the gift that keeps on giving! I need to spend time with this and study all of the prospects. I will say for now that I’m not surprised by Smile Happy’s position. Maybe this is the year that a Derby winner rallies from further back than 3rd!
We were all getting worried about you, Eddie. So glad to see you back and that all is reasonably well with your family emergency. I hope everyone is doing well. It wouldnt be the same Derby trail without you.
Thank you, Steve. That’s kind of you to say.
Glad u r back Eddie.
Thanks, Mike!
Welcome!
Hey Eddie, welcome back! Hope everything continues to get better for your family! Your input was certainly missed!
Appreciate that, Bruce.
Welcome back Eddie! I always like your input on the derby trail and KDFW bets. I will be looking for another KDFW horse this weekend with KDFW2 being held. I am glad to get Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1. He is training well and should be a handful in the FEB 5 Holy Bull at GP.
Thanks, JoeP. I’ll definitely be looking for one or two good-priced colts in KDFW2. Can’t wait to cash my Mandaloun ticket from last year’s KDFW2. LOL
This year is going to be crazy especially if Baffert’s horses go to other trainers to get Derby points…How can you judge a horse that performs with Baffert vs going to another trainer? Going to be a guessing game for those horse me thinks!
You said it! I recently watched several of Bob’s horses work—he has some seriously talented three year olds, some of which worked lights out!
I’d suggest that Bob Baffert won’t relinquish his top Derby prospects to other trainers until the 170 point major preps, when first or second ensures a place in the Derby field. Subsequently, the “other” trainers will simply be playing the role of Jimmy Barnes ‘proxies’ for Baffert/owners. No doubt, with instructions attached.
Baffert has indicated on numerous occasions that if you’re colt isn’t first or second in a major prop prior to the Derby you’re just going through the motions. Time will tell.
Shorthand response: Baffert will only lease out the colts that performed well in the final major preps. All the work has been done.
Davids:
That’s spot on! Posts like yours are why I love this blog! Not only are Steve’s rankings and assessments superb, commentators like yourself really help me make sense of a truly confusing 3YO picture.
Yes Ms Blacktype, that’s the fun of Steve’s Rankings, along with the posts, you receive a wide cross-section of various opinion. Albeit, not always positive, mind. Ha ha
This year appears more difficult than most in predicting the winner as there aren’t five or six dominant colts far superior to the rest of the crop. A few rough diamonds will be cut into priceless gems come May, though.
Spring is in the air with the first edtion of the Steve Haskin Derby Rankings, although from where I’m currently sitting I’ve got a view of 4 inches of snow. I’m so excited to start following the rankings every week, to watch the races and wins and places unfold, and to begin to narrow down the lengthy list of potential contenders to a manageable personal betting guide come the First Saturday in May. Cheers to all of us who follow the trail each spring wheter we’re stuck for the time being looking at snow or not. And cheers to the author who entertains us weekly with wit and insight to make our Derby Dreams of winning big come closer to reality! Thanks, Steve!
My grandpa would have said, “Be thankful it’s not 8 inches of snow.” That was kind of his philosophy of life. 🙂
I also raise my glass to Steve and the group.
Somehow Derby talk is more comforting when there is 8 inches of snow on the ground. Think of us as a family gathered around the fireplace with cups of hot cocoa, talking Derby and dreaming of the first Saturday in May.
I’m seeing something other than hot cocoa to drink. 😉
I’m sure youre not alone, but I was trying to recreate a Norrman Rockwell painting…Derby style. When no one is looking you can grab a shot or two of good ol’ Kentucky bourbon to get the chill out.
I recall a Rockwell painting that had a bunch of guys playing poker and drinking beer. Close enough!
“ Schmidt City Club Beer”.
Yes! Had to look it up to confirm. 🙂
Lol. We’re facing the next 7 days of over 87f with minimums of 65f during the night with no rain in sight. Air conditioning, chilled champagne rather than hot cocoa here. Ha ha
I’m not a cold weather person.
You should plan for a Melbourne Cup – summer holiday trip to Australia one of these days, when Covid is past history. I actually prefer the cold. Lol.
Will be in Ak. in June.
Your third year of Derby ranking at Secretariat.com is going to be rich as there are a lot of viable prospects ready for Stakes challenges, and, on top of that, there is no clear-cut dominant horse so far.
Surveying 40 to 60 Derby hopefuls and writing relevant insights every week is a titanic task indeed. Your followers and readers are truly gratified with such a comprehensive information.
Smile Happy is indeed a picture of a Derby horse and you made an unassailable reckoning about his female family. His daddy, Runhappy, albeit a champion sprinter, is sired by a Kentucky Derby winner who is by a stallion who sired another Derby winner… it is also something, isn’t it?
Rattle N Roll was the recipient of great accolades after his Grade 1 last October but many are taking a wait-and-see approach until seeing his first works of the year. It is customary for Derby winners to have steady workouts in December and January … disruption in training early in the year could be a big disadvantage … unless your horse is a force of nature like Big Brown or American Pharoah.
I remember how (in your first ranking of 2010) you were hesitant to reinstate Super Saver on top until his first workout on January 24th … and his progression was rewarding … wasn’t it?
On the pedigree side, it is notable to see Taylor Made’s stallion Not This Time as the sire of three of the sweet sixteen (Simplification, Epicenter and Chasing Time). They are very fast and outstanding milers so far…And there is another son of Not This Time named Howling Time who was the second choice in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes but finished a disappointing fifth behind the imposing Smile Happy. Good horses are above excuses, but I think that making Howling Time a pacemaker would hamper his chances going forward.
Howling Time’s last two workouts at Gulfstream were excellent but there is no published work since January 4th… I hope he is not having a setback.
All your sweet 16 are in my watch list except for Trafalgar who I overlooked due to his sire Lord Nelson. However, after reading your extremely accurate depiction of his grit I included him in my Virtual Stable.
The shuffle of dreams has begun and the strap of reality on the track is also set to break them.
I wish all a happy Derby Trail.
Let the fun begin !
Thank you for those great comments and observations, Nelson. And for remembering what I said in 2010. Lol
Hey, Nelson! “Shuffle of Dreams” — good name for a colt or filly? Nice post!
Thanks EddieF… and welcome back!
Your short lay off caused a bit of commotion here. LOL
I knew that the magic word for your reappearance was “FUN”..
Hope your family is in good health …!
Thanks so much, Nelson. Everything is good and getting even better. A bit of commotion? Yikes! That’s a bit embarrassing. 🙂
I see, “the strap of reality.” Ouch!! Nelson, were you a wayward lad at school? Ha ha
Thought Chasing Time might make the ‘Knocking on the Door’ section, how exciting to see him in the rankings! As one of his 3,220 owners, I’m really enjoying the journey with this promising colt 🙂
3,220? Are you serious? Am I going to be hung in effigy if I have to drop him? I would have kept him in Knocking of the Door if I knew the Napoleonic size of his army.
That’s a lot of influence Steve, will you be intimated by 3,220 disgruntled owners? Ha ha
Yes, I am petrified at the thought of having to drop him
Hey Steve….I know Doug likes using those cheaters, but….in Slow Down Andy’s recent Jan 16th work…he glanced right, and then he rubber-necked right—maybe Doug will equip a full cup blinker?
At least this time he didn’t break stride…but he was running easy….finished well I just love this colt! Fingers crossed, that he stays sound wherever he runs next–Oaklawn or Fairgrounds, I intend to perform a cashecktomy with him!
Speaking of recent works, thought Doppleganger looked good Jan 12th….Messier also, Jan 15th…..
Those are Baffert’s two main Derby horses.
Doppleganger was under pressure down inside, and came away like a nice thing!
Are you sure it was the REAL Doppelgänger?
You had me at that sideways thingy wingy over the “a”!
LOL!
“Hot Rod Charlie” then “Slow Down Andy”….apparently they are some with connections to Team O’Neill with the ‘need for speed’.
Thanks for your detailed list Steve. I’m always excited to read it and it brightens up an otherwise dull January.
Great list! I’m like you in that I love to see Ribot-lines in a pedigree. Can’t figure out why they’re moving further and further away in pedigrees (wink). I also like to see Robertos and quite a few have him in there and some have both. In the rush to breed precocious two-year-olds, I have wondered if the stamina lines were going away. Very glad to see that some breeders still look to the Classics and breed Classic-type horses. I’ll be following closely to see how the next races shake out. Cream always seems to rise to the top.
Thanks Melissa. Sady, a lot of those old stamina lines are fading deeper and deeper into pedigrees. Thankfully, the Ribot line is being kept alive through Graustark, His Majesty, Pleasant Colony and Tom Rolfe.
Steve,
Thanks for doing these rankings for all of these years. I’m 39 and it seems I’ve been following you for over half my life now. I always enjoy your posts and thoughts on the horses.
Happy new year, mb
That’s very kind of you, Matt. Thank you very much.
I like Slow Down Andy, Smile Happy, Rattle N Roll, Tiz the Bomb and I will say it, Corniche. No idea how Corniche will end up or where he will end up (with what trainer) but I am putting him on the list. Going to be a great year and we have the older horses who are going to be something else I think.
One more thing on Derby Rankings: Week 1.
I realize you can’t mention all the horses on the Derby trail, but just as a suggestion, you might take a look at My Prankster.
By Into Mischief, out of a Flower Alley mare, he didn’t fire in the Champagne Stakes, fading to 4th at the end, but has since looked damn good, especially last out, in a 75K AOC, at GP, going 6 furlongs in 1:09.02. His broodmare sire, Flower Alley, won the Jim Dandy, G1 Travers and 2nd in the BC Classic. In addition, there several classy horses on his tail-female side, including Easy Goer, Unbridled and Alydar.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, he could be headed to the Holy Bull, or the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay.
It’s obvious My Prankster has good tactical speed, it’s just a matter of time when that class and stamina influence kicks in.
My Prankster is on my large list, but I want to see what he can do beyond six furlongs. The fact that PLetcher has run him twice at 6 furlong after the Champagne makes me wonder what his plans are for him. His next start will tell.
Hi Steve
All good points. My Prankster’s pedigree indicates he should handle distance races, so we’ll if his 4th place in the one mile Champagne Stakes, was not an indicator of limited routing ability. One thing to keep in mind, coming off a big maiden win, at 6 1/2 furlongs, the G1 Champagne was a big step up in class in his 2nd career start. Pletcher decided to take a shot, just to see where My Prankster was at moving forward. I’m confident he’ll make a good accounting of himself stretching out for the second time.
BTW, with respect to those two sprint races, I’m thinking Pletcher might have wanted to use them as confidence builders.
Oh, it’s the most wonderful time of the year; the Derby Rankings are back! Great read as always.
So excited to start reading these every week!!
Happy to be on the Derby trail with you again! You’re such a fantastic writer. Your knowledge & insights regarding the Derby, the horses & the history captive me every year. I’m definitely hooked & I’ll be following along week to week. Thank you for continuing your Derby Dozen (or so) here.
Thank you very much, Jul.
Great to see these rankings, Steve! Always a most welcome sign, and it seems you’re starting up a bit earlier than in past years, which is just fine. I especially enjoy the “Knocking on the Door” section for insight into the less well-known horses.
I just hope CDI and Baffert can come to some resolution – soon! No matter how one feels about Baffert, the horses have done nothing wrong and deserve a shot to run and earn qualifying points. Personally, I’d love to see them continue with Baffert, if that is what the owners prefer, but one way or another let’s just resolve this (and the Medina Spirit case) ASAP.
Thanks Amy. Actually I’ve started on this date every year.
Always interested in who you feel is worth keeping an eye on!
And kudos to the people who got away with naming their thoroughbred “Joe”. Best name I’ve heard for a US based horse in years
Please allow me to chime in on your comment regarding “Joe”. There were several reasons a placed a Derby Futures wager on Joe, at 200-1, one of which was his name. I lost my older brother (Joe) to Covid-19 in November of 2020, which I’ve had trouble dealing with, we were very close. A couple of weeks ago I lost my sister to Covid-19, so I was hit with a double whammy so to speak. This virus has really taken a toll, not only in this country, but throughout the world. I hope all the regulars (and Steve) take all the necessary precautions to avoid contacting this deadly virus.
Back to Joe, the Declaration of War colt, that looked so impressive winning the Maryland Juvenile Championship Stakes. As Steve mentioned, he’s bred to run all day, with an abundance of stamina and class on his dam side. In addition, he’s a homebred, (The Elkstone Group LLC). Homebreds have done exceptionally well in cranking out Kentucky Derby winners. And last but not least, he “could” carry the large heart gene.
Good luck
Bill, Your comment struck a cord with me. First my condolences to you for the tragic loss of your brother& then your sister. I too lost a brother November 2020 to Covid -19, his name – Earl. I know I’d certainly jump on the bandwagon of any horse who shared his name. I’ll start following “Joe” & remember both our brothers.
Thank you for your heartfelt condolences Jul, they’re much appreciated. Hopefully, Joe will find success on the Derby trail, and make us both proud of our brothers.
Best of luck moving forward.
We 3,000+ Chasing Time owners are loving our boy making the list! Thanks Steve! Love your columns every year!
Bill, I am so sorry about your brother, Joe, and now your sister, who were both lost to Covid-10. I
cannot imagine what you are going through. I wish you luck with your Derby Futures-Joe.
Thank you Paula, your thoughts are much appreciated.
Good luck to you as well.
Oh, I am so sorry, Bill. My deepest condolences for your losses. The thought of losing a brother and sister is unimaginable. I hope Joe can continue to provide a link with your brother. And I hope this space can provide a slight diversion from your grief. Our thoughts are with you.
And my condolences to Jul as well. This horrible disease has taken such a tragic toll on people’s lives
Thank you Steve, I appreciate your kind words. And yes, this space certainly helps me deal with my grief moving forward.
Life goes on, and my extended family has been a big help.
One more thing about my brother Joe. He lived in Keenewick Washington, and loved to go to garage sells looking for a bargain in hopes of reselling it to make a profit. Just before he contacted Covid, he found a bronze statue of horse, in full stride, with the jockey deep in the saddle. The horse is about a foot high, and a foot long, setting on a block of wood. He sent that bronze horse to me before he died, which I have in my home office. I craved his name (Joe) into the block of wood, which will always serve as a reminder of my departed brother.
Many thanks for reaching out to me, your thoughts, as well as the other contributors who expressed their condolences, mean a great deal to me.
That is something you will always treasure, Bill.
Yes indeed Steve, that horse statue sits right above my computer, (always visible), it is something I will always treasure. I intend to hand it down to my daughter who has expressed interest in horse racing from time to time.
BTW, the odds on Derby Futures Pool #2 have been released, with very few horses that look enticing.
The odds at the Circa casino, (Vegas) are probably double what are listed in Pool #2. As an example, Simplification is listed at 100-1 at Circa, and 50-1 on Futures Pool 2. Go figure.
Thank goodness we dont bet on the morning line odds. We’d all go broke.
My deepest condolences for your losses, Bill. I just lost my mother on Christmas Eve (who almost made her 94th birthday) to the remnants of Covid-19 which she fought in 2020. She just couldn’t get over the debilitating effects it had on her. I hope that Joe the horse can bring you some happiness and fond memories.
And condolences to you too Melissa. You are blessed to have had her for 94 years.
My deepest sympathy Melissa.
Thank you Melissa, your condolences mean a great deal to me. I’m deeply sorry for the loss of your mother, it must have been a very sad Christmas for you and your family. They say when you lose your mother, you lose your best friend. Truer words have never been spoken. I lost my mother when I was only 14 years old, she was only 52. I think about her a lot.
Losing our mothers is something we’ll never get over.
May our mothers Rest In Peace.
Bill, most heartfelt condolences to you and your family for the losses of your brother and sister to Covid.
My family, so far, has been blessed that while some have had the virus, they were not hospitalized and recovered at home.
.
Thank you Lynda, your condolences are much appreciated. It’s good to hear you haven’t lost a family member to Covid.
Hopefully, this virus will be just a bad memory as we move forward with our lives.
Good luck on the Derby trail.
Bill, I am so very sorry to learn of your great loss. There are no other words to express my feelings other than to say I’ll think of you, your brother, and your sister every time Joe is in a race.
Well said, Eddie
Thank you EddieF, I appreciate your kind words.
I know we’ve had issues in the past, but I’m willing to let bygones be by bygones, and move forward as gentlemen.
I hope you are as well.
Good luck moving forward on the Derby trail. This year has all the makings of a great KD.
All is good, Bill. And I’m confident that this will be an exciting few months.
My empathy and condolences for your loss. We lost my older brother Rod (Rodrigo) to complications from COVID-19 on his 65th birthday in August 2020 and still miss him so much. Although Hot Rod Charlie is from a past Derby crop, I think of my brother when I watch him running heart out every time. I’ll be watching Joe with keen interest.
Steve – so great to read your wonderful and insightful comments once again. It’s a bright spot in my day and gives some welcome relief from all the troubles in our present world.
Thank you Rachel. I’m sure your brother Rod was always there for you growing up, and as an adult as well. Younger sisters can always depend on older brothers to keep them safe and sound. Good luck with Hot Rod Charlie in future races.
My family is full of “Joes.” My uncle was Joe. His son was Joe. His son and grandson are Joes. One of my cousins married a Joe. Their son was Joe. Their grandson is Joe. My sister married a Joe. I guess I know one horse I’ll be following.
Actually, Joseph was my brother’s given name, but our family always called him “Joe”. It’s good to hear there are so many “Joes” in your extended family, it’s a great American name.
Good luck Melissa.
For those wanting to put some money on those in your initial “Sweet Sixteen,” Steve, think there’s a very good chance they’ll be able to do so this weekend. Guessing no less than a dozen, and maybe as many as fourteen of them will be available as individual betting interests.
It is educational to read your rankings, Steve. While I wonder whether Runhappy’s offspring will be competitive at classic distances, you make a strong case for Smile Happy. We’re off on another wild ride to the Derby.
Thanks James. Welcome aboard again.
Thanks, Steve. I always look forward to your Derby rankings.
I’ll be tickled pink if Smile Happy continues to improve and wins it all. Right now, he’s my #1 too. He impresses me in that way very few do. ♡
Hi Steve!
It is 22 degrees, with high winds & a foot of snow, here in my “holler” in Boone, NC. Your Derby Rankings: Week 1 has warmed and brightened my day. Lots of excellent equines and interesting humans. Are you planning a Pegasus/Dubai column? Thank you for your excellent analysis, Mary in Boone
So glad to hear it Mary. Thanks. Stay warm and dry
Curious why you think Corniche would not be one of Baffert’s horses if he eventually wins Derby inclusion – the owners loyalty to him so far?
I need to see signs that he wants to go classic distances and that he’s not a one dimensional speed horse.
It seems all Baffert horses of late are speed horses, though of questionable dimension. His BC suggests he can stretch. I’m saddened horses have to deal with the other stuff.
Been wrong before, for me Corniche is comprised @ 10f.
Mr. Haskin, look forward each Jan. for Rankings.
The most wonderful time of the year has arrived! Steve, your research and analysis of so many promising 3YOs is exhaustive and on point — as usual! Superb list, and well reasoned. Now the actual races to come will no doubt scramble things for all of us.
I’ve already made some adjustments to my list of 12, which is still informally ordered and includes many of your top picks. Despite the uncertainty of his Derby status and/or Derby-eligible trainer to be named, I still like Corniche as well as another Baffert horse, Newgrange. Really liked the way Newgrange held on in the Sham. Smile Happy is my No. 2 (which kinda technically makes him No. 1 given the uncertainties swirling around Corniche). Looking forward to more juicy nuggets as the season unfolds.
And I’ll be the first to say it: OVIATT CLASS is my Belmont horse.
Thanks very much.
Hi, Ms B. Oviatt Class has a lot of talent. I hope they can get him to be a bit closer to the front in his preps. Otherwise, he’ll probably be one of those nice deep closers that gets to the winner’s circle once or twice in a year. But maybe that one time will be the Belmont!
Am so glad for this column to start. The best thing about your columns is that you share
the kind of information that makes me think and then go back and look at previous races
I’m a huge fan of Chasing Time but he has a ways to go. I’m really rooting for Papacap, here’s
hoping he can stay on track. Because of your article, lol, there are horses I need to research
Thats what I try to do Laurie. Thank you.
Absolutely thrilled to see a horse I own a “hair” of on here! Chasing Time has all the right stuff to make a serious amount of noise on the road to the Kentucky Derby. I’m hopeful that his will give Steve Asmussen his elusive Derby win. Up close in person he is a very balanced colt who looks almost identical to his sire Not This Time. Light on his feet, but with enough muscle to not mind getting in tight and making his own way during a race. Interestingly although he’s a spitting image of his sire , I find it even more remarkable the way the Storm Cat influence can practically be felt radiating off coat with each step he takes. That blood is running strong through Chasing Time’s veins. Hopefully he takes all us MyRacehorse owners on the ride of a lifetime.
love RATTLE AND ROLL- COMMNADPERFORMANCE AND CHASING TIME OF WHOM IS A HALF BROTHER TO UNION JACKSON
Steve….won’t the owners of the Baffert horses switch trainers to get into the Derby?
You would think so, and they have to do it soon if they want to get points. Maybe theyre waiting to see if Baffert wins his lawsuit, but that is a longshot. They may be waiting for the 50 point and 100 point races
Even though I own but a hair of them, via MyRacehorse, it is a dream come true to see one of “my horses” named in your top 15 and another mentioned in the ones to watch. #14 Chasing Time (looked so impressive stretching out) and Iron Works ( who I think will really make some noise and I absolutely love his name). Thanks Steve. So great to have another year of your Derby horses. Let’s hope the Derby doesn’t have an asterisk this year and they straighten out this Baffert fiasco.
Looks like we have a Chasing Time family here. Good luck with that William. I think the Baffert situation will be resolved soon.
I never in a million years thought a horse that I owned shares in would be mentioned on the Derby trail but so proud of Iron Works and wishing him and the rest of the owners through MyRacehorse the best of luck
Cool!
Good luck Nancy, that was an impressive first step. Next one will be big.
Thank you Steve. now it feels like Derby season! I’m glad you are watching Wit. I hope he comes back strong. But I am also a micro share owner in Chasing Time. Thank you for noticing him. It will be a fun ride!
I figured Wit’s last two were too bad to be true when he looked like a world beater in his first two. Distance may be a question mark, but he is extremely talented. Good luck with Chasing Time. Youre surely not alone on here.
Hi Steve
We’ve all been eagerly awaiting your Derby Rankings: Week 1. The time and effort you put in researching pedigrees, past performances, connections and all the rest that you factor in when compiling top contenders, is much appreciated.
On Saturday, 1-15, I posted my top 12, which included 9 of your first 14, so I felt pretty good in that regard. In addition, I had 2 horses that you mentioned in your KOTD segment, (Emmanuel & Joe). Back in December (23rd), I placed a few Derby Futures bets, at the Golden Gate (Vegas) which are as follows;
Rattle N Roll, 33-1 ($100.00 to win)
Emmanuel, 75-1 ($50-1 to win)
My Prankster, 95-1 ($50.00 to win)
Joe, 200-1, ($50.00 to win)
Forced Ranking 200-1, ($50.00 to win)
Many thanks for all the work you endure posting your Derby Rankings, year in and year out.
Hi Bill,
Nice futures wagers! Looking forward to your insightful comments on the way to the Derby.. Good luck!
Thank you for the kind words biggy312, and good luck to you as well.
Thank you Bill. Because of space I actually saved the pedigrees for weeks 2 and 3. I will get into them more. Good luck on all your bets. As your ead, I love Emmanuel, but after he was scratched I just need for him to race against winners before ranking him. He may have to go into a stakes now, but with only one start thats tricky. Maybe GP will card an allowance. Tampa was a perfect spot for him.
You’re welcome Steve, and thanks for the reply. On Saturday, 1-15, Emmanuel worked a bullet 4 Furlongs, in 48.53, 1/22, at Palm Beach Downs. Based on that bullet work I believe it’s safe to say he’s recovered from that fever, and whatever else that might have been ailing him. I’m looking forward to Emmanuel’s next start, hopeful an allowance race, like you mentioned.
BTW, I like what you had to say about Simplification, he’s listed at 100-1 at Circa, get him while you can, at those odds. 🙂
I saw that he worked but forgot to go back and add it.
Favorite time of year. Thanks Steve. I read and reread the derby rankings. Great job as always
Thank you Ken. Much appreciated.
I don’t think those Cal Cup three year olds will be Derby contenders….I also am not bullish on Classic Causeway…..besides Slow Down Andy I also like Zandon, Messier, Smile Happy and I cannot toss Oviatt Class, who I thought ran well in the Sham, he is built like a 10 furlong horse, and Kent knows how to win the Kentucky Derby from behind!
Good group of horses! We own a hair on Chasing Times tail (#14 on your list) through My Racehorse. His win the other day at Oaklawn was a nice one. Should be a fun ride with him if he stays happy and healthy whether he gets in the starting gate or not. I do hope he retains Rosario but you never know.
Wow, lots of Chasing Times fans. Looks like My Racehorse might have found another gem.
Hi Steve,
I’m a micro shareholder in Chasing Time and was pleasantly surprised to see him appear on your list. The MyRacehorse ownership group is very excited about this horse. His speed figures need to improve to be competitive with Grade 1 horses but have been impressed with his mental maturity. As you mentioned, he’s shown he can bull his way through traffic and loved the way he conceded the lead last out and waited for Joel Rosario tell him to go on with it. He looks like a horse that will appreciate stretching out. Could MyRacehorse do it again?
Susan
Good luck with him Susan. He has a very high ceiling and all the tools. And he makes a great physical appearance. Classic look about him.
Hello, Steve;
I am so glad to see your initial Derby Dozen for this year: the road to the Derby just isn’t right without it! So far, I am on Smile Happy, Rattle and Roll, Pappacap, Sir London, Kid Corleone and plan to add a few more soon based as usual on your comprehensive analysis, as well as the insightful commentators. For this year, I have a Las Vegas sports and poker player along for the ride for the first time! Seriously, I very much look forward to your weekly columns: it has been a large reason I have cashed my Derby future wager each year since 2018: You are still welcome to your Las Vegas dining experience of your choice from my Medina Spirit windfall!
Thanks so much, Biggy. Good luck this year. My big question with Kid Corleone is how far he wants to go. Pedigree doesnt say distance so we’ll see.
Biggy, Sir London is the maiden winner that I’m most eager to see in stakes company. He has the look of a star!
This is wonderful, Steve. I’ve been transported to the glory days of the Derby Dozen. I wish I had discovered this site sooner. Your rankings and explanations are spot on. Your analysis of all these fine derby hopefuls add so much to my enjoyment of the derby trail. I think I’d have Classic Causeway and Epicenter a bit higher, and maybe Rattle N Roll a bit lower due to his injury and inactivity. We’ll have a better idea about several after Saturday’s Lecomte. After that, we’ll see how Tiz the Bomb takes to the turf in Florida. Thank you so much!
Thanks, Roberta. Glad you finally found us.
Of course I meant Tiz the Bomb taking to the DIRT.
Rattle N Roll
Commandperformance
Tiz The Bomb
Emmanuel
Zandon
Slow Down Andy
Smile Happy
Pappacap
Chasing Time
Jack Christopher
Classic Causeway
Simplification
Giant Game
What can I say! Delighted that so many of my first round top 12 (oops 13) are on your list though I have not yet ranked them.
More later. In and out feeding the broombies…still some ice and a bitter wind.
Thank you!
Zandon.
Steve,
I was waiting (im)patiently for this column. It’s been an interesting three months or so of racing these guys. I think this Derby year is shaping up to be very exciting with lots of good horses moving forward. And because I’m a nerd, and own a whisker of Chasing Time, I got the warm fuzzies with his (very early) inclusion on your list.
I’ll be curious to see what happens with BB’s group.
Thanks for a great start to this year’s Derby Trail.
I might have put Pappacat a little higher, but that could be based on a bias I have toward the Gun Runner offspring. I like that there are quite a few closers on the list, although I think they were disadvantaged by the change to the point system. Before that, there were more rabbits entered to give them more of a chance. You haven’t included Echo Zulu. Is that because the connections haven’t indicated any interest in the KD to this point?
Yes
Gun Runner has quite a fan base, including me! He’s given us a helluva run so far and maybe the best is yet to be. Just 4 days to Pappacap’s 3yo debut at the Fair Grounds, where GR made his 3yo debut…and won!
Very much hoping he runs a great race!
I also like Slow Down Andy! Yesterday he looked pretty solid, easily moving past his training mate—BUT……he glanced right–before really stretching his head further right! They should change his name to THIS WAY Andy! After the look around he got back to his work, and this guy has size and length—he LOOKS like a 10 furlong horse! Coach might be heading back to Louisville, for the Threepeat! Speaking of Coach, there’s a great picture on the Doug O’Neill Facebook site, of Hot Rod and Lava—-with all of their many gifts, received, for Hot Rod Charlie’s VOX Populai award…Hot Rod standing sideways, Lava Man looking right at the camera!
First Derby column is always a blast. Thank you Steve for introducing us to new horses.
Thanks. Welcome aboard.
Hey Steve – Spring is in the air with your awesome in depth derby rankings. It does not feel like Spring here in Northeast Ohio where I just finished plowing 1 foot of snow ❄️ in my driveway. I really liked Zandon after checking out the KDFW1 PP and also remembered your article about him as a live long shot. I am glad that I bet him at balloon odds of 56-1 in KDFW1. He was very impressive in the Remsen and should fire a big shot in the Holy Bull. Smile Happy looks to be targeting the Risen Star probably because he will go for the 50 points offered to the winner of that race and he McPeek can keep him separated from his stablemate Tiz The Bomb who is running in the Holy Bull. I am glad that Smile Happy is likely to run in the Risen Star, that’s one less talented colt that Zandon doesn’t have to deal with. I also miss Eddie F., I hope he is doing well and will return soon. Keep up the good work Steve!
56-1 are awesome odds. Good luck. You should have fun on the trail.
Thanks, JoeP. All is well. Good luck with Zandon. He’s a nice one!
Well, it looks to be an interesting start to your Derby Dozen Steve. It does look like McPeek is loaded but way too soon to make much of it yet. May is still a long way off. Just reread Kingmaker about Northern Dancer so will be watching the Canadian colt as well.
As for Churchill and Baffert, is what it is. A lot of bad weather going on that may impact the training and racing as well.
Great list as always Steve!
Thanks, Jenna.
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