Derby Rankings: Week 10
It’s the proverbial lull before the storm, as all camps sit back this week and get ready for the big 100-point races that should clear up the Derby picture once and for all and separate the contenders from the pretenders. During this lull we will focus our attention on pedigrees and see which horses will thrive going a mile and a quarter with a majority of those mentioned below carrying the bloodline of this website’s illustrious namesake. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Mar. 21, 2022 – Week 10
By Steve Haskin
1– Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
He turned in quite a work in company with Rattle N Roll, going five furlongs in a bullet :58 4/5, and was going the easier of the two. McPeek has left the door open for a possible switch to the Florida Derby. Looking at his pedigree, Runhappy’s sire Super Saver won the Kentucky Derby and Super Saver’s broodmare sire A.P. Indy won the Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic. Super Saver traces to Majestic Light, who is by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince, out of a Ribot mare. Smile Happy’s female family is as strong a classic pedigree as I have seen. His broodmare sire Pleasant Tap, a three-quarter brother to Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin, won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap and was so versatile he placed in the Kentucky Derby, Breeders’ Cup Classic, and Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Pleasant Tap is by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony, a major classic and stamina influence by Ribot’s son His Majesty, also a major classic and stamina influence. Pleasant Tap’s dam is by Belmont Stakes winner Stage Door Johnny, another major and classic stamina influence. Smile Happy’s second dam is by Relaunch, sire of Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Waquoit, and his third dam is by His Majesty’s full-brother, the top classic and stamina influence Graustark, sire of Belmont winner Avatar, giving Smile Happy the Rasmussen Factor (RF), being inbred to a top-class broodmare, in this case Flower Bowl, winner of the Delaware Handicap, who also produced Coaching Club American Oaks winner and Hall of Famer Bowl of Flowers. That also gives Smile Happy three doses of Ribot in his pedigree. And finally, Smile Happy’s fifth dam, the Darby Dan-bred Bravura, is also the fifth dam of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide and Belmont winner Empire Maker, both of whom combined to sweep the 2003 Triple Crown.
2– Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
He turned in another strong half-mile work in :48 4/5 over the deep Payson Park track. He doesn’t have your typical pedigree being inbred to little known French miler Siberian Express, winner of the French 2,000 Guineas, and being by up-and-coming sire, stakes-winning Upstart, who placed in the Florida Derby, Whitney, Met Mile, and Haskell Invitational. Zandon’s two paternal great-grandsires, Touch Gold and A.P. Indy, both won the Belmont Stakes. Upstart’s sire Flatter, sired Flat Out, two-time winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap, and Upstart is inbred top and bottom to the great classic stamina influence Buckpasser. Zandon’s first two dams were bred by Brereton Jones’ Airdrie Stud and this family traces to the great foundation mare Boudoir, making this the family of Majestic Prince, Graustark, His Majesty, Bowl of Flowers, and Your Host, sire of Kelso. Zandon’s broodmare sire Creative Cause, a son of Giant’s Causeway, won the San Felipe and placed in the Preakness and Santa Anita Derby. Zandon’s pedigree also has the three ubiquitous daughters of Secretariat, Weekend Surprise, Terlingua, and Secrettame, who together have dominated the American bloodlines. So there certainly is enough here to suggest Zandon will not have any problems getting a mile and a quarter.
3– Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
If there is an Always Dreaming, Justify, Maximum Security, Authentic, or Medina Spirit in this year’s Derby it looks like him, as he is the one horse you don’t want to see loose on the lead, which he could very well be again in the Louisiana Derby. He gets most of his speed from his sire side through top-class sprinters Trippi, Great Above, and Ta Wee, but his sire is one of the hottest young stallions in the country and his paternal grandsire Giant’s Causeway was one of the best 1 ¼-mile horses in the world and whose maternal great-grandsire is English Derby winner Roberto. On the female side, Epicenter’s broodmare sire Candy Ride set a new track record winning the 1 ¼-mile Pacific Classic, and Candy Ride’s grandsire Cryptoclearance was a multiple stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles and was second in the Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. In the bottom half of his pedigree you have English 2,000 Guineas winner King of Kings to give him that good mile speed along with being inbred to the brilliant French 2,000 Guineas winner Blushing Groom. For stamina, there is the great Sadler’s Wells; Ela-Mana-Mou, winner of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Eclipse Stakes and third in the Arc de Triomphe; and Busted, also winner of the King George and Eclipse Stakes, who sired St. Leger and Coronation Cup winner Bustino. It is those European classic-distance horses that enable him to carry his speed and come home in fast fractions. That makes it tough on his opponents, who can only hope there will be someone fast enough to not only run with him early, but stay with him long enough to slow him down in the stretch.
4– Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
Last week we talked about how tough, durable, and adaptable this colt is. He can dazzle you with his speed on the front end or he can sweep past horses coming from well off the pace. He just needs to get back to switching leads in the stretch. Like Epicenter, he is by the red-hot sire Not This Time, out of a Candy Ride mare, making this a potent combination. And he also is inbred to Blushing Groom (three times) so their pedigrees are extremely similar and he gets those same speed influences on top. One of the great stamina influences of the past quarter century is Herbager, and Simplification’s dam is inbred 4×4 to the great French-bred stallion, once through his daughter Ballade, the dam of champions Glorious Song and Devil’s Bag and Simplification’s great-grandsire Saint Ballado. Simplification’s second dam, Ballado’s Halo, is a full-sister to two-time Eclipse champion and Hall of Famer Ashado, as well as Sunriver, who won the Hollywood Turf Cup and Jim Dandy Stakes and placed in the Belmont Stakes, Florida Derby, and Man o’ War Stakes. Simplification also traces to Ribot three times. So don’t expect to see him backing up in the stretch. Like the horses of the past, he will scrape, claw, and battle for every inch and will never stop fighting. He is the kind of horse you really want to see in the Derby.
5– Morello (Steve Asmussen, Classic Empire – Stop the Wedding, by Congrats)
Unlike the other contenders he will be making his two-turn debut in the Wood Memorial, so there is a lot at stake. His mechanics, running style, and professionalism suggest that will not be a problem. His sire, who is a grandson of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Cat Thief, won three Grade 1 stakes around two turns, including the Arkansas Derby, and he was second in the Preakness and fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Classic Empire’s sire is Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile, second in the Kentucky Derby and sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Pioneerof the Nile is by Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, who is by Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Unbridled. Morello’s broodmare sire Congrats won a pair of two-turn stakes and placed in the Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup. Looking at Morello’s four great-grandsires, they have combined to win two Belmont Stakes, two Breeders’ Cup Classics, and a Travers. And his fourth dam is by champion grass horse Assagai, winner of the mile and a half Man o’ War Stakes. If he can beat seasoned classy horses stretching out to 1 1/8 miles in his two-turn debut, the sky’s the limit. So far there is nothing about this horse I don’t love.
6– Secret Oath (D. Wayne Lukas, Arrogate – Absenthe Minded, by Quiet American)
With her commitment to the Arkansas Derby it is naturally assumed that a huge performance will put her in the Kentucky Derby. All I can say is assume nothing and don’t get too hyped up if she wins the Arkansas Derby. Let’s wait and address that after April 2 when the pressure to run her will begin. We’ll keep her in the Rankings until we’re officially told otherwise. But the Oaks is still very much in the picture. As for her pedigree, her blend of brilliant speed and stamina no doubt contributes to the explosive turn of foot that has buried her rivals in the blink of an eye. She can sit in traffic and bide her time, and when that hole opens she is gone. Earlier, we mentioned the Rasmussen Factor, having inbreeding to top quality mares. Secret Oath is inbred to Tartan Farm’s great producer Aspidistra through her son and daughter, Hall of Famers Dr. Fager and Ta Wee. In fact, she has Dr. Fager twice in her pedigree. She also is inbred to the Tartan stallion Rough’n Tumble, sire of Dr. Fager and the stakes-winning Minnesota Mac, and to Fappiano through his sons Unbridled and Quiet American. Her sire won the mile and a quarter Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, and Travers Stakes in track-record time. Her dam won or placed in seven two-turn stakes, her broodmare sire sired a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, and her third dam is by Hatchet Man, who defeated Forego in the mile and a quarter Amory Haskell Handicap and is the broodmare sire of Kentucky Derby winner Strike the Gold. Secret Oath’s dam, Absenthe Minded, traces to the Australian-bred Sky High, sire of champion older horse Autobiography, winner of the two-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup by 15 lengths defeating champions Key to the Mint and Riva Ridge. Oh, yes, she worked a bullet five furlongs in :59 2/5, out in 1:12 2/5.
7– Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
Is Classic Causeway fast or does he just give the illusion of being fast? With his pedigree, which is not geared toward speed, it was a surprise to see him win his career debut by 6 ½ lengths going seven furlongs at Saratoga in a swift 1:22 3/5, which is why he was 13-1. Stretching out to two turns, he was on the lead in three of his next four starts and was a close fourth in the other. This year he has set the pace in both his starts at Tampa Bay Downs and was in total control from the first step out of the gate in the Tampa Derby. He sure looked fast, but his 84 Beyer speed figure makes him one of the slowest, if not the slowest, 3-year-olds on the Derby trail. In five career starts he hasn’t been able to run faster than a mediocre “5” Thoro-Graph number, which he has run four times without showing any improvement. So how did he get a 99 Brisnet figure in the Sam F. Davis Stakes? The truth is he’s an anomaly. His sire has been a ubiquitous presence among the Derby pedigrees, but is not known for siring speed horses. His broodmare sire won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, but he is by a champion sprinter and two-time Met-Mile winner. His dam won a couple of small sprint stakes in California and his next four dams either were unraced or ran at small Midwestern tracks in Ohio and Michigan. His second dam is by an Arkansas-bred sire named Dmitri, who ran only once, but his third dam is by Temperence Hill, winner of the Belmont, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Suburban Handicap. So is he really as fast as he looks visually or is he as slow as most of his speed figures indicate? Hopefully we’ll know more in the Blue Grass Stakes.
8– White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
I loved everything about his five-furlong work in :59 2/5, and he followed that up with an easier breeze in 1:00 2/5 in company with the focus more on coming home fast and a strong gallop out. Joseph got his final quarter :23. If those works are an indication of what we’re going to see in the Florida Derby he’s ready for a big effort. Here is another horse whose pedigree is a bit of an enigma even though his two grandsires, Tapit and Into Mischief, are arguably the two most influential stallions in the country. His sire Race Day was a pretty solid racehorse, winning the Oaklawn Handicap, Fayette Stakes, and Razorback Handicap. Although he hasn’t done much as a stallion he is the sire of another Derby contender in Barber Road. Race Day’s female family boasts top names such as More Than Ready, In Reality, Key to the Mint, and Graustark. White Abarrio’s dam did nothing on the racetrack and is a half-sister to the pure sprinter Cool Cowboy. There isn’t a lot to say about the rest of his female family, so to me he is still a bit of an unknown when it comes to how far he wants to go. It wouldn’t surprise me either way. With him it is about whether he is as good as he looked in the Holy Bull Stakes and if he can repeat that performance jumping into the Grade 1 Florida Derby off a two-month layoff.
9– Forbidden Kingdom (Dick Mandella, American Pharoah – Just Louise, by Five Star Day)
Hopefully the slight fever that forced him to miss a workout will not affect his Santa Anita Derby status. Last week I discussed the speed and stamina in his pedigree. I will go over it again, but keep in mind that as of now it is the speed that has been dominant, and I’m talking about serious sprint speed. Two races back in the Bob Hope Stakes he was way too headstrong early, fighting the rider while setting blazing fractions of :21 2/5 an :43 1/5 and looking nothing at all like a Derby horse. In his two-turn debut in a very weak San Felipe Stakes field, he just shot to the lead and buried his overmatched opponents with fractions of :22 3/5 and :45 4/5. People in general have fallen in love with him as a Derby horse, but we’ll know more after he takes on Messier in the Santa Anita Derby. So once again here is a look at both sides of his pedigree. His raw speed combined with a pedigree that has pure sprinters Five Star Day, Carson City, and Mt. Livermore in his first three generations on the dam side and his dam being very fast in her own right was enough to convince me he was a one-dimensional speedball with sprinters dominating his female family. Upon further study of his pedigree, I will say that there is a bit of a chance he can stretch his speed out. First off, his broodmare sire Five Star Day’s dam is by Vanlandingham, who won the 1 ½-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup, as well as the Suburban Handicap and Washington D.C. International. Forbidden Kingdom’s third dam Til Forbid placed in the Alabama and Kentucky Oaks and is by Temperence Hill, who won the Belmont Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers, and Suburban. And you can’t forget the fact that Forbidden Kingdom’s sire is a Triple Crown winner. Mandella said one of the colt’s main attributes is his intelligence, so we’ll see if he is able to harness some of that raw speed without taking away his main weapon.
10– Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
When you look at More Than Ready and Hard Spun you naturally might think speed and rightly so. But even though More Than Ready is known more for siring horses running short on the grass, he did recently sire Travers and Belmont Derby winner Catholic Boy. And as for Hard Spun, yes he was fast and his only Grade 1 score came at seven furlongs, but he did finish second in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic and his dam is by the distance-loving Turkoman, out of a half-sister to Preakness and Belmont winner Little Current. Emmanuel’s dam is a half sister to Free Drop Billy, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity and placed in the Blue Grass, Gotham, and Holy Bull Stakes, and to Hawkbill, winner of the Eclipse Stakes, Dubai Sheema Classic, and Princess of Wales’s Stakes. His second dam, Trensa is by Giant’s Causeway and is a half sister to Grade 1 Ballerina winner Serape, a daughter of Fappiano, out of the multiple Grade 1-placed Mochila, a half-sister to champion grass horse Cozzene owned and bred by John Nerud. So there is a good mixture of mile speed and solid mile and a quarter stamina on both grass and dirt. As of now that seems to be right in Emmanuel’s range. Coming off his terrible trip in the Fountain of Youth, you can bet he has grown up quite a bit and is ready to take a big step forward, and it’s been decided that will be in the Blue Grass Stakes.
11– Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
Finally back on the work tab, going a half in :49 2/5 in company with Emmanuel. He is such a forgotten horse following his scratch in the Fountain of Youth Stakes if he should return with a victory in the Wood Memorial his stock could very well rise more than any other horse, as he has always been regarded as a leading Derby contender. He is already proven at 1 1/8 miles with his narrow victory over Zandon in the Remsen Stakes and there is nothing in his pedigree to indicate he won’t get another eighth of a mile, especially with his consistent closing punch. Uncle Mo has sired horses who can do pretty much anything at any distance, and in addition to being the leading stallion of graded stakes winners in 2020, he sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. Mo Donegal’s second dam, Island Sand, won the Acorn and Delaware Handicap and placed in the Kentucky Oaks, Mother Goose, and Fantasy Stakes. In 2007, she sold at Keeneland for $4.2 million in foal to A. P. Indy. Island Sand’s sire Tabasco Cat won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes and her dam is by Forty Niner, winner of the Travers and Haskell Invitational. All Mo Donegal has to worry about now is bouncing back off a nine-week layoff and improving on his speed figures, especially his last three Thor-Graph numbers of “6,” “6 ½” and “6,” which are pretty pedestrian for this late date.
12– Early Voting (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Amour d’ete, By Tiznow)
His pathetic 74 Beyer speed figure in the Withers Stakes has been lifted 14 points to an 88 because of the big efforts of two beaten horses, Un Ojo and Grantham, since that race, which was almost two months ago. So if you got turned off by that sloth-like Withers number and didn’t bet him in the Future Wager because of that, tough luck. He suddenly has become much faster. You can’t blame Beyer. Who they beat is an integral part of the system. But as you can see, it is far from flawless, so remember that the next time you swear by the numbers. What is true today may not be true tomorrow, although I can’t remember a figure changing this dramatically. For two months his figure was totally out of whack. As I mentioned, when he was a youngster at the farm, he was considered more muscular and compact than the typical Gun Runners, who are more long and lean and look like stayers. A few minor vet issues at 2 caused him to sell for a lower price than expected. But pedigree-wise he is all stamina, with his sire and broodmare sire accounting for three Breeders’ Cup Classic victories, and any horse who can win his career debut going head and head at a flat mile and then draw off and follow that up with a dominating victory going 1 1/8 miles over a deep tiring muddy track has to have a solid foundation despite having only two starts. His female family is very strong, with broodmare sire Tiznow. His third dam is by Chieftain, a half-brother to major stamina influence Tom Rolfe and his fourth dam is by Buckpasser. To show how diverse his pedigree is, his dam is a full-sister to the ill-fated Irap, winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, Ohio Derby, and Indiana Derby and third in the Travers, and a half-sister to champion sprinter Speightstown.
13– Rattle N Roll (Kenny McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
Worked five furlongs in a bullet :58 4/5 in company with Smile Happy, who maintained a slight advantage to the wire and on the gallop-out. After his lackluster performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, which was a questionable spot for his 3-year-old debut, he now finds himself in a much more suitable spot in the Louisiana Derby going 1 3/16 miles down one of the longest stretches in the country, which should suit his strong closing kick. A second-place finish would be good enough to put him back on track, but he has to get a lot out of the race to make up for that stroll in the Fountain of Youth. As for his pedigree, he will run all day. His sire, Connect, a son of Curlin out of a Holy Bull mare, won the Cigar Mile and Pennsylvania Derby. He has a great combination of stamina and speed top and bottom. His second dam is by Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap winner Pleasant Tap, who is by major stamina influence, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony, a son of the Ribot stallion His Majesty. Pleasant Tap’s broodmare sire is another major stamina influence, Belmont winner Stage Door Johnny. Rattle N Roll’s third dam Dance Review produced two Grade 1 winners and is out of Dumfries, a half-sister to the top-class racehorse and champion sire Lyphard and the Vaguely Noble filly Nobiliary, who has the unique distinction of finishing second in the English Derby and then coming to America where she won the Washington D.C. International against a star-studded field. She is the only filly since 1916 to place in the Derby. All Rattle N Roll needs now is to just get in that starting gate on the first Saturday in May and let him take it from there.
14– Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Edwina, by Square Eddie)
He worked a sharp six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 in company from the gate for Sunday’s Sunland Park Derby. He looks like he’s matured quite a bit, keeping his head perfectly straight, and drew well clear of his stablemate despite being under a loose rein and not being asked in the slightest. He continued strong after the wire pulling some 10 lengths clear of his stablemate. He’ll be wearing blinkers for the first time and looks like he’s sitting on a huge race. The Sunland Derby is a good spot for him to get his head straight and show he has matured. He doesn’t need to face Messier and Forbidden Kingdom right now. He just needs to run a professional race, beat this bunch and earn enough points to get in the Derby field, because it could set him up for a peak performance on the first Saturday in May. This race won’t prove whether he’s good enough, but once he’s in that gate you never know. He is by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and his pedigree has a good mixture of speed and stamina. From a personal standpoint, after I became obsessed with horse racing, the first four colts I fell in love with were Damascus, Dr. Fager, Arts and Letters, and His Majesty, and all four are in his pedigree, so I do admit to having a soft spot for his bloodlines.
15– Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher. Pioneerof the Nile — Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya)
He will try to find a place for himself in the Derby picture when he takes on Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby. Pioneer of Medina’s pedigree is loaded with stamina and there should be no problem getting the 1 3/16 miles and then the 1 ¼ miles. He is yet another with Giant’s Causeway in his pedigree. But he showed good speed in the Risen Star Stakes chasing Epicenter, and because of the slow pace he had a lot left in the stretch and battled Smile Happy and Zandon to the wire. His dam won a 1 1/16-mile stakes at Laurel and was second in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, and his third dam was a Grade 1 winner in Chile. He would have been an interesting horse for the Wood Memorial, as both his grandsires, Empire Maker and Eskendereya, won that race. With a huge Thoro-Graph leap from a “10 ½” to a “3,” there is no telling if he will regress off such a big jump or he is improving that quickly.
16– Call Me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux, Midnight Lute – Overseen, by First Defence)
He has a tricky pedigree that has speed and stamina throughout. It’s still hard to categorize his sire Midnight Lute, who was only a sprinter because of a breathing problem. Call Me Midnight sure ran like distance should not be an issue when he closed fast to nail Epicenter in the final strides in the Lecomte Stakes at 28-1. The race was set up for him, with Epicenter going too fast early, and we’ll see if he can duplicate that late run with a different pace and coming off a nine-week layoff. His broodmare sire First Defence was a Grade 1 winning sprinter, as was First Defence’s dam Honest Lady, who was narrowly beaten in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. But Call Me Midnight’s tail-female family has plenty of stamina through his third dam, English Oaks runner-up Slightly Dangerous and her sire English Derby winner Roberto. Slightly Dangerous also is the dam of Commander in Chief, winner of the English and Irish Derbys, and Call Me Midnight’s second dam Jibe, is a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles in England. Call Me Midnight’s fifth dam, Noblesse, a daughter of champion sire Mossborough, was 2-year-old filly champion in England. So this is a good mix of American speed and European stamina.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
I hated dropping IN DUE TIME off the Rankings, but I will leave him knocking on the door until he shows up on the work tab, as it’s been over two weeks since the Fountain of Youth and I have been unable to find out his current status or what race he’s pointing for. Once we know more he will return to the rankings. If he works in the next couple of days, here is his comment: The third of the Not This Time trio of Derby contenders, In Due Time has some influential names in his pedigree, such as broodmare sire Curlin, but with names like Sultry Song, Inverness Drive, Crozier, End Sweep, Trippi, Great Above, and Aloha Mood it should not come as a big surprise that he is a complete outcross through five generations. There seems to be enough there to get him the mile and a quarter, but it sure wouldn’t hurt to have the talent to help push him along. His big concern is reversing that significant drop from a “3” to a “6” on his Thoro-Graph numbers and improving his 91 Brisnet figure.
Whatever is happening with MESSIER and all the Bob Baffert horses, we still have to acknowledge them until we know something official. But time is running out. We know Messier, who worked a half in :48 3/5, is going to take a lot of beating in the Santa Anita Derby. But don’t overlook his stablemate, San Felipe runner-up DOPPELGANGER, who turned in a sensational six-furlong work Sunday in 1:10 4/5 and is definitely on the improve. Don’t be surprised to see him show up in the Arkansas Derby and that $1.25 million purse. Whatever PINEHURST does in Saturday’s UAE Derby don’t expect it to put him on the Derby trail. But one colt who could hit the Derby trail with a big effort in Dubai is GILDED AGE, who, like Un Ojo and Grantham, is coming out of the live Withers Stakes, where he finished a fast-closing third. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has put in two explosive runs since trainer Bill Mott added blinkers.
Brad Cox is looking for big improvement from CYBERKNIFE, who worked five furlongs in 1:00 flat, in the Arkansas Derby. “He’s a tough horse to deal with, he always has been,” Cox said. “He’s gotten faster and appears to be improving. I thought his last race was a step forward. He got a really good figure in the last race. I think it’s going to stack up and probably be one of the better ones in the Arkansas Derby, and if he runs that race I think he’s a player.” Cox could have been alluding to the colt’s huge Thoro-Graph jump from an “8 ¾” to “3 ¼.” Also pointing for the Arkansas Derby are three locals coming out of the Rebel Stakes, UN OJO, BARBER ROAD, and CHASING TIME, as well as recent impressive allowance winner CALL ME JAMAL, who worked five furlongs in 1:01, out in 1:14. Barber Road worked a half in :48 1/5 in company, out in 1:01 and pulling up six furlongs in 1:14 4/5.
It will be interesting to see how GALT does in the Louisiana Derby after throwing his rider trying to avoid the fallen High Oak in the Fountain of Youth. In that race, Galt was moving up from last, but in his previous race he set the early pace, so who knows where he’ll be running on Saturday. The same can be said for the Cox-trained ZOZOS, who has shown early speed, but trying to run with Epicenter is another story, especially for a horse with only two career starts.
Speaking of HIGH OAK, he has a slight filling and if he’s not 100 percent for the Wood Memorial he could very well go in the Pat Day Mile and then the Preakness. But the Travers is the main goal, so they are not going to rush him now.
Mark Casse still has several on the Derby trail. PAPPACAP, who is coming off two strong works after his Fountain of Youth debacle, including a :59 flat drill Saturday, will try to bounce back in the Florida Derby. The improving VOLCANIC and GOLDEN GLIDER will point for the Bluegrass Stakes, with the Wood Memorial another option for either one. And synthetic specialist GOD OF LOVE will run in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Trainer Ed Barker said he will wheel SHIPSATIONAL back in the Florida Derby following his third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. “We got hung out really wide on both turns and you absolutely cannot win being wide on both turns,” he said. “I’m pleased with how he ran. He tried, and if we had an inside post it would have been a lot different. We’ll take our shot there and if we get enough points that’s fine. If not, Plan B.” Coming back in three weeks I don’t have to train him hard. If we’re fortunate enough to get enough points it’s five weeks to the Kentucky Derby which is perfect.”
TIZ THE BOMB had another strong work for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, drilling a half in :47 flat at Keeneland. O CAPTAIN, a fast-closing third in the Fountain of Youth at 87-1, worked five furlongs in 1:01 for the Florida Derby. The speedy STRAIGHT UP G remains sharp for the Sunland Derby, working five furlongs in :59 1/5. TRAFALGAR, who showed nothing in the Risen Star Stakes, returned to the work tab with an easy half in :50 1/5.
Call Me Midnight totally messed me up, as I am sure that he did others as well.
Messier had a 6F work Sunday. 1:11 and change. I’d like to see Mr. Haskin recap the breeding query for the horses now that are not in Baffert’s care anymore should they fall into his top rankings.
RE: Sunland derby
Slow Down Andy looked a little green during the stretch run, and the last 1/8 was relately slow, (13.28). He’ll make the KD starting gate, but I don’t see him as one of the top contenders in the race. Just my opinion.
The Sunland Derby race flow was hard against Slow Down Andy, and he got gassed…..better horses would have beat him today—but in the Kentucky Derby he will be three lengths off the pace—and settled….and they get an extra 2 weeks. …
Slow Down got QUALIFIED…..got a HARD RACE into him…..GETS an extra 2 weeks…..SHOWED grit!……
My current Top 10 Derby contenders.
1A) Simplification
1B) Epicenter
3) Classic Causeway
4) White Abarrio
5) Smile Happy
6) Forbidden Kingdom
7) Morello
8) Zandon
9) Emmanuel
10) Barber Road (my pick in the Arkansas Derby)
I read somewhere that Flavien Prat will be taking over on Zandon and Joel Rosario will ride Mo Donegal in The Wood. I don’t know if any of that is true. Maybe Steve Haskin will have some updates on that. For Jose Ortiz to leave a Chad Brown horse and Irad Ortiz to give up a Todd Pletcher horse, they must really like what they have. Simplification and Classic Causeway. That’s assuming that the jockeys made those decisions.
The Blood-Horse, DRF, and Thoroughbred Daily News have all reported that Prat will be on Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes. That was over 2 weeks ago now.
I too would assume that the jockeys made those decisions. It’s hard to imagine Brown and Pletcher dumping the Ortizes at this point. But I think Irad and Jose are making the right choices. So far this year Simplification and Classic Causeway have looked better to me than Zandon and Mo Donegal.
Prat is moving to New York. I’d definitely have Prat above both the Ortiz brothers.
Same with Rosario.
I have great respect for both Prat and Rosario, but I’d still take an Ortiz.
Nine entered in the Arkansas Derby—small field for THAT track! I don’t see much pace in there, the filly may go off favored…I’ll try to beat her.
You’re right, Matthew. Smaller fields all day for Oaklawn next Saturday. Only 4 of their 13 races have 10 or more horses. Still a nice card. Doppelganger makes his debut for Tim Yakteen. Other interesting horses on the card: Eda & Cezanne for BB, Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster, Breeders Cup winner Storm the Court and Law Professor. Joel Rosario not riding at Oaklawn next Saturday. I wonder what he’s up to. Maybe he’s got something cooking on The Florida Derby card at Gulfstream. Jose Lezcano IS at Oaklawn on Saturday to ride some horses for Steve Asmussen. Lezcano rarely leaves New York. We The People and Cyberknife also show up for The Arkansas Derby with it’s $1,250,000 purse. I also see a few horses that owe me some money on that card.
Storm the Court is 0 for 10 since that Breeders Cup Juvenile win in 2019 at Santa Anita in which he paid a whopping $90+ for his backers. All of those 10 losses were in Graded Stakes races. Now he comes back for Peter Eurton after more than a year layoff. Rotten luck: he drew the rail. Interestingly, Roadster is also 0 for 10 since his signature win in the 2019 Santa Anita Derby. All 10 of those losses were in Stakes races. Most of them of the Graded variety. Roadster comes in off only about a 6 1/2 month layoff.
It feels like ages since we’ve seen Mo Donegal and Messier in action. Mo Donegal had a “slight fever” which supposedly caused him to miss a race. Mo Donegal was last seen running 3rd in The Holy Bull on February 5th. Messier’s last race was his “off the charts” win in The Robert B Lewis on February 6th. According to my calendar, that’s 7 weeks ago. We’re still not likely to see either one of them for another 2 weeks. “Mo” in The Wood Memorial and Messier in The Santa Anita Derby. Both races on April 9th.
Epicenter is the first horse to qualify on the EddieF Derby Meter (TM). He gets only one x mark, that being the six weeks from New Orleans to Louisville (only Animal Kingdom has done it — for statistical and analytical purposes, not counting Mandaloun). I’m assuming that his Brisnet number for the LA Derby will be at least 97. BTW, not sure if this has been mentioned, but Epicenter went the final 3/16th in 18 1/5 sec. Wow!
He certainly got a big fat Beyer (102). I’d expect the Brisnet will be high as well, Eddie. Will be interesting to see if Steve promotes him to No. 1 or sticks to Smile Happy, who will run next weekend.
Yes, Ms B. Steve really has an unenviable task. He needs to await the outcome of the Sunland Derby within the hour. If he keeps 16 contenders, I would think that Rattle N Roll (Oh my!), Pioneer of Medina, and Call Me Midnight drop out. Slow Down Andy is out if he doesn’t win tonight. Second place just won’t do in tonight’s field. Any other horse that wins at Sunland isn’t likely to make the list. Messier is in now, but where? Top 3? In Due Time should return now that he’s back in training. Zozos and Doppleganger are possible. But as you say, Epicenter could replace Smile Happy at the top.
Only 7 Kentucky Derby Points races left on the schedule after today’s Sunland Park Derby. Next Saturday, we get The Florida Derby, The Arkansas Derby, and The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes. That should be fun. The Saturday after that could even be better with The Wood Memorial, The Bluegrass, and the apparent “match race” in The Santa Anita Derby.
Yes, Tommy, the only two horses I’ve heard of that are running so far in the Santa Anita Derby are Messier and Forbidden Kingdom. I suppose Bob may enter a rabbit for the former. What’s happened to Newgrange? Radio silence on him since the Rebel.
Whoops! Forgot about Happy Jack. Make that THREE entrants.
#1-I can’t believe that The Sunland Derby is a $500,000 race and #2- how come that isn’t enough to draw some better horses? This race looks like it would be “easy pickings” for a quality Derby horse in search of some easy points. Cal-Breds and Turf Paradise horses aren’t my idea of Kentucky Derby horses. No offense.
Epicenter 102 Beyer.
Epicenter looks like the horse to beat until we see how Smile Happy, Zandon, and Morello run in their next starts. I want to see how Morello does at 2 turns and against a little better competition. I still have some hope for Mo Donegal and even Classic Causeway. I want to see if Classic Causeway can run faster away from Tampa Bay Downs which has always been kind of a “quirky” track. I’ve given up on Commandperformance and Rock N Roll. That being said, if R N R somehow miraculously makes it into the Derby and is 30-1+, I might change my mind. I’m still a little miffed at him and trainer Kenny McPeek after another poor run yesterday with no apparent excuses. Maybe he needs to get back to the Bluegrass Country.
Can collapse in one frame.
Last year the biggest handicapping mistake I made was to dismiss the Louisiana horses because their Derby didn’t impress me. Needless to say, they turned out to be some of the best of the bunch. So I evaluate this year’s results with caution. I too was very impressed with Epicenter, who showed he can lay just off the pace as well as on it. I was also impressed with Zozos. I wanted him to turn out to be good and he did. The figures I found indicated that Epicenter broke the track record by .68 seconds. If a length is still considered roughly equivalent to 1/5 of a second, then Zozos broke the track record, too. Not bad for a horse so lightly raced. Would I put him in my top five? No. But I think he has a bright future. I expected more from Call Me Midnight. He was probably too far back and he ran very wide, but even so, I thought he should have done better. The others I didn’t expect much from, anyway.
Right now–and definitely subject to change in the next two weeks–my top five choices in no particular order are Forbidden Kingdom, Messier, Epicenter, Simplification, and Classic Causeway.
Something that ‘might’ be worth remembering is that Friesan Fire won the Lecomte, Risen Star, and the Louisiana Derby then went off as the Kentucky Derby favorite and flopped. Sometimes, you can get a false impression because a horse runs particularly well on a certain track.
True, but I’m afraid there may be several horses who run all their major preps on the same track. Any of them might decide they like their own track better than Churchill Downs.
Exactly, I’m intrigued to see how Classic Causeway performs at Gulfstream Park, should he actually turn up for the Florida Derby.
Yesterday, 3-25, I posted a comment that Zozos could steal this race, and he damn near did. On that same comment, I stated that I would box Zozos with Epicenter in a “fairly large exacta, which I did, and collected a nice payout.
I missed my 2,6,9/ 2,6,9/ 2,6,9/ ALL when Pioneer of Medina got up for 3rd, but in another super p/w wager, I keyed Epicenter on top, with Zozos, Call Me Midnight, Pioneer of Medina and RNR underneath in a $2.00 super p/w, which returned $265.00. In addition, I hit the $.50 Pick 5, whcih paid $240.90.
That said, I made close to a grand for the day.
Now, it’s on to the Florida Derby, with my top KD pick, Simplification as the likely favorite.
BTW, I’ve heard rumblings that Classic Causeway might enter the Florida Derby, instead of the Blue Grass. We’ll see.
Sitting behind horses and winning like he did–checked the final box for Epicenter, who will enter the Derby gate among the favorites, perhaps THE favorite
No doubt Ep will be among the Derby favorites. But we’ve got five races coming up where a big winner could be the Derby favorite. Thinking of Simplification, Classic Causeway, and White Abarrio in the FL Derby, Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby, Mo Donegal and Morello in the Wood, Smile Happy and Zandon in the Blue Grass, and Forbidden Kingdom and Messier in the Santa Anita Derby.
Was it you a while back who said that we could see a 5-1 favorite this year? It’s possible.
Another great day for the Japanese at Dubai today and a pretty disappointing day for the American jockeys. I think that Flavien Prat’s 2nd place finish on Hot Rod Charlie was the only first or second place finish by an American jockey in any of the 9 races.
Tommy Mc: Could this be the year a Japanese horse makes an impact in the Kentucky Derby? Crown Pride could break two curses at once.
Japanese horses seem to be winning everywhere these days. One of these days I expect that they will break through with a competitive Derby runner. I think that our top five or six 3 year-olds would be tough for them to beat this year.
Another thing is they have to ship over here and that is not a short flight. Then they have to sit in quarantine. Might not be the end of the world training wise but it has to have some kind of impact. Horses like routine for the most part.
Good point, Laura. Didn’t seem to hurt them in Dubai, but running in the Kentucky Derby comes with a lot of other challenges too.
Epicenter sitting just behind the pace today is great practice for The Derby. Steve Asmussen has to be very pleased with that. Zozos set the pace and didn’t seem to be going too fast. He earns his 40-points, but I can’t like him going into The Derby even if he is still improving. Rattle N Roll sits at only 15 points, but I think his bigger problem is that he has looked nothing like a Derby winner. Maybe he’s just a Churchill horse. Do they bring him back in 3 weeks for The Lexington which is worth only 20-points to the winner? Kenny McPeek’s hand looked so strong and it feels like Smile Happy is his last hope now. No offense.
Smile Happy sits at 30-points with a prep race still in his sights. I think he’ll make it into The Derby.
I think Rattle N Roll picked up 10 points for 4th, which would give him 20. This year, it could be enough.
I think that you are right. My mistake.
Epicenter proved that he can rate and his track record (1:54.38) is almost 2 seconds faster than the previous record… and could have been faster than 1: 54 with more urging during the whole race.
Let’s see what the Californian have to say… sometimes it is just futile to rate behind those Western speedsters…!
Nelson: He set a new track record? I knew the track was fast after the Louisiana Classic, but the fractions seemed . . . reasonable.
DRF tweeted the Beyers for those who follow: Olympiad, 103; Epicenter, 102.
Epicenter was the calmest horse going to the post I’ve seen in a long time. I think that’s a good sign for the craziness of Derby Day at Churchill Downs.
Yes Ms Blacktype … the previous track record was owned by Hot Rod Charlie who won the Louisiana Derby in 1:55.06.
As you said, it was a perfect prep for the son of Not This Time … Asmussen must be thrilled with his chances in the Derby.
Can’t wait to see how Messier responds to his new barn…!
If he’s as good as he’s looked, he should be fine. I think we’re in for the usual roller coaster the rest of the way.
Correction: almost a second faster than Hot Rod Charlie’s record
Nelson, how many races at FG have been run at 1 3/16th? Seems that a track record in this case is not too significant.
Yes, I got a wry smile when ‘breaking track record’ was mentioned. The Derby fanfare continues to keep pumping up the volume. Be wary. Ha ha
Zozos….first time stakes was beaten but held sway for 2nd, that’s a heckuva run, and he has time now for the Derby ….I like him, will be using him in my tri box!
I just felt like Epicenter could have taken Zozos any time that he wanted.
Too bad he couldn’t have debuted in December, at least. I’m still high on him, but not for the Ky Derby.
I said this about Mcpeek a couple months ago, his horses do not seem to develop over time. I threw his three horses out! Zero KD wins, I suspect that about Brown’s horse as well.
Chad Brown wishes that The Kentucky Derby was run on turf.
Zandon can hold his own.
What do you think about Epicenter?
You mean the trainer of the filly, Swiss Skydiver, who won the Preakness Stakes? Who did Swiss Skydiver beat in the Preakness Stakes, I remember now, none other than Bob Baffert’s wonder colt, Authentic.
Yes, Kenny McPeek has no idea. Lol.
Kudos to Epicenter, the horse that doesn’t get enough respect! Pioneer of Medina’s pre-race antics probably busted my exacta. Zozos held on in a way that makes me think he’ll be tough on the first Saturday in May. Wonderful race, and I can’t wait to see what you make of this, the UAE Derby, and the Sunland Park, Steve!
So…..TWO horses from the UAE Derby are looking to enter the Kentucky Derby?….sheesh…
It looked like Jose made a couple of mini-moves at LIG, on Midnight Bourbon..mewonders how that flight back will be….
Unbelievable (Country Grammar). You couldn’t have scripted better for Bob Baffert.
Baffert is the GOAT, embrace it!
lol Looks like he’s missing big dance.
The rich get richer. 😉
Country Grammer was owned by Paul P. Pompa Jr. and trained by Chad Brown in his 1st 6 races. The owner put him in the 2021 January Keenland sales and was bought for $110k by WinStar & Zendan Stable and handed over to Baffert. He’s earned over $15.5 million in 4 starts for Baffert.
10….
He was sold because Pompa died and all his horses were dispersed the following January.
Thank you for the clarification Mr. Haskin. What a live race though, the 2020 Peter Pan. 2 horses win back to back Dubai World Cups out of that race.
It looked to me like Life Is Good hit “the wall” at about the 1/8 pole. Great job by BB to bring Country Grammer off the layoff to run 2nd in Saudi Arabia and the win today. If it wasn’t for all the controversies, BB would have to be considered one of the greatest trainers of all-time. At least since 1973 when I started following horse racing. BTW, Country Grammer’s win today brings his career earnings to right around $10million for his 10 starts. Right around $1million every time he sets hoof in a starting gate. Man! I have really underestimated this horse.
I should qualify my statement about BB. If it weren’t for all the controversies, BB would have to be considered one of the greatest DIRT trainers of my years as a fan of horse racing.
Great win for Baffert and Dettori with Country Grammar wearing Medina Spirit’s colors in the Dubai World Cup… !
Amazing achievement in hard times!
Tough sledding for Bob, losing all his Derby contenders….but sheesh! The guy is having a heckuva year so far!
Just the fillip Tonalist needed. I knew Country Grammer would win. Stamina!!
What is lacking in Life is Good genetics…!
Life is Good just wants to go, go, go. Not genetics, just the colts natural predilection. If you stifled Life is Good’s natural talent to try and rate I doubt he’d have won the races he has.
Bobby Frankel managed to get Ghostzapper to relax enough to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. So there’s the challenge for Pletcher.
Country Grammer has all that stamina in his pedigree, 12f. wouldn’t be a problem.
He was as relaxed in front as any pacesetter can be and still he stalled in the last furlong … a 9F horse is not a 10 F horse at all.
Nelson, I feel you may have missed my subtle dig – “Bobby Frankel managed… – perhaps, others are not as gifted?
By the way, Nelson, “An American in Paris” was brilliant last night. Nice double “An American in Paris” and “An American in Dubai” – score. Ha ha
The land of the rising sun … and of the rising Horses !
Why no respect for Pioneer of Medina in the La. Derby? He was right there with Zandon and Smile Happy in the Risen Star, has an excellent speed number progression, and always shows up. I like him in an exacta with Epicenter (which of course won’t pay much).
The big question in Dubai is whether any horse will win from off the pace. Looks like another inside speed bias, but hopefully it will change. Do I hear 2-5 on Life is Good? .
Gilded Age 22/1 and Pinehurst 3/1…. and nothing, “Welcome to the Game”
Steve I don’t think Life Is Good gets in the tri…..OH, did I miss the race? (hehe..)..
Oops. correction .. Congrats , but very doubtful SHE will be KD bound
Delicada (3f Pyro – Bronx Silver by Kurofune) wins the Fukuryu Stakes (3yo D1800, JAPAN ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY) at Nakayama. Congrats, but very doubtful he’ll be KD bound. Not even nominated.
This Louisiana could look exactly like last year’s race, with Epicenter playing the Hot Rod Charlie role. And Galt playing the Midnight Bourbon role. I just hope Epicenter is not as good as HRC, and Galt is better than MB.
IN DUE TIME worked in due time today in Fla. I as no doubt others thought perhaps he was in route North because of the time lag. Nevertheless he’s getting his Spring Sun warmth and “D”, “C” growing colts require to move forward as he aims for his next target from there. He makes for more good racing ahead.
Am beginning to think Zozos will apply some pace pressure on Epicenter, thinking about Call Me Midnight again….
The UAE Derby is a strange Kentucky Derby Points race for the simple reason that 4 of the 16 runners are not eligible to earn any of the points that are being offered. Here’s where it gets weird: Quality Boone, Irwin, and Kiefer are all 4-year olds that were Bred in South America. All 3 carry 10 more pounds than the 3-year olds. Apparently, they are considered 4-year olds when racing in the Northern Hemisphere and 3-year olds when racing in the Southern Hemisphere. Two of them are July foals and Quality Boone is a September foal. Pinehurst still races out of the BB barn and is banned. Which raises some questions. Are the three 4-year olds treated like the banned Pinehurst? If these 4 horses sweep the superfecta, does that mean no points will be awarded? Or, would they award points to the 5th, 6th, & 7th finishers? Now I’ve done it. I’ve given myself a headache thinking about this mess.
One of those 4-year olds, Irwin, has more wins than any other horse in the field(4). I actually liked Quality Boone and Kiefer. But, there’s no way that I’m playing a horse that’s giving 10 pounds to other decent horses. I really wanted to play against Pinehurst. The best I could come up with is Sekifu, the Japanese horse that chased Pinehurst home in Saudi Arabia. I’m not too optimistic about my chances with him. I better take another look at Gilded Age. Bill Mott entices Luis Saez to ride.
100 points is another wacko move by Churchill Downs. Obviously it didnt help in attracting Derby horses. If Gilded Age doesnt run a big race this is a total waste as a Derby prep.
I agree 100%.
Gilded Age will be in the Derby via Dubai… imagine the drama unfolding if Azure Coast wins the UAE Derby… hope his Russian connections are not listed as oligarchs… !
I noticed that his first race was in Moscow. We don’t see too many horses that have raced in Russia here in The U.S. The purse for that race in Moscow was only about $2,100.
.-..-. .- .-. . -.– — ..- .. -. -.. ..- -… .- .. –..– -. . .-.. … — -. ..–.. ..-. — .-. – …. . .– — .-. .-.. -.. -.-. ..- .–. ..–..
Hopefully, Nelson can read the Morse Code above. He’s our man in Dubai.
Hi Davids…! You made me feel like the 007 of Western Canada…LOL
I am not in Dubai this time … staying at home is my precautionary choice as ” the pandemic is far from over – and it will not be over anywhere until it’s over everywhere” according to the WHO…
What does an old rock band know about pandemics?
I am just following their songs “Get Out And Stay Out” of unnecessary travels and “Won’t Get Fooled Again” by the confusing health mandates at different airports… LOL
“Tommy” was another show I gave up about a month ago. Lol.
I know that feeling, Nelson. I skipped a show last night, which I’d seen before, to ‘safely’ see “An American in Paris” tonight. Playing Russian Roulette with your health so to speak. Watching live performances, while wearing masks, takes half the enjoyment away as well. In Australia, the virus is rampant and it’s been summer here.
RE: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Race 12
Obviously, Epicenter is the horse to beat, the only question being, will Asmussen instruct Joel Rosario to go all out for the win?
He (Epicenter) has secured 64 points, which is enough to make the Derby starting gate. Why over-extend this colt and take a chance of taking too much out of him, in his last race, leading up to the KD? I suspect his M/L odds of 7/5 will drop to 3/5 or 4/5 at post time, in which case, a win bet would not be worth the risk, IMO.
Zozos earned the 3rd highest last out Beyer Speed Figure of 92, right below Pioneer of Medina’s Beyer at 93. Epicenter’s Beyers have increased substancially since his maiden win (64, 80, 87, 88, 98), the last three being stakes races.
In my view, Zozos could very well steal this race and stamp himself as a legitimate Kentucy Derby contender.
In his last race, (100K AOC), Zozos rated just off pedestrialn early fractions, to blow the doors off of Barossa and Elusive Target, to earn a late pace figure of 111. He covered the last 1/16 of a mile in a very impressive 6:06 seconds. The only Derby contender to record a faster last 1/16 was Classic Causeway in the Sam Davis, with a 5:98.
I still plan on Keying Epicenter, Zozos and RNR on top in the first 3 slots, with ALL underneath in the 4th slot in my superfecta wager. In addition, I’ll flip that over, and Key ALL, on top in the first slot, with Epicenter, Zozos and RNR underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots, in one other super wager, (just in case a bomber pulls off an upset).
I’ll box Zozos and Epicenter, in a fairly large Exacta wager.
Safe trips to all.
I was wondering if Steve Asmussen would want Joel Rosario to go “all out” since Epicenter already has the points that he needs. Assuming that The Louisiana Derby will be the horse’s final prep before The Derby(why would he come back in 3 weeks for The Lexington?), I think that they will put a good race into him, but stop just short of “squeezing the lemon dry”. With his speed and pace advantage, that should be good enough to win.
I dont think you can take too much out of him when he has 6 weeks to the Derby. With that long a layoff I dont want an easy race. Thats why they went to 1 3/16 miles, to put some bottom in these hoses that have to wait 6 weeks to the Derby. Just my opinion.
Good points, Steve.
Any thoughts on Zozos being a major player in the Louisiana Derby?
He just might be a monster in the making.
Derby gods. Does anybody but me remember this? Cannonero. Shipped from Venezuela. Quarantined. Mine that bird..chip Wooley walking the horse over on crutches.slam dunk Derby gods winners. This year there are three? Richard Mandela’s horse. He lost Omaha Beach and who wouldn’t want to see a son of a Derby winner win the derby?# 2.un ojo. One eye. And his sire mysteriously is now dead at the age of eight.# 3 Lucas filly.sire also dead. And Lucas is old.but won a derby with a filly.
Lynn, I’ve found the racing gods to be a very fickle bunch and it’s best not to tempt fate.
After looking at all 4 of this weekend’s Derby points races, I’ll pick: Ho O Roulette in The Fukuryu in Japan, Sekifu in Dubai, Rattle N Roll in Louisiana, and Straight Up G in New Mexico. Around the World in 48 hours. I fully acknowledge that Epicenter at Fairgrounds and Slow Down Andy at Sunland Park will be very difficult to beat. I feel like it’s time for Kenny McPeek to make some noise on the Triple Crown Trail and the price should be right. I still hold a grudge against Slow Down Andy for losing a Cal-Bred race to Finneus at Del Mar on Breeders Cup Friday which cost me the early pick-5 that day. Blinded by my prejudice. If I’m being honest, Straight Up G should go to the lead with a newly blinkered Slow Down Andy right on his flank. “Andy” should have no problem shooting by “G” in the stretch. I know that they are both Cal-Breds, but the other 6 horses in the race don’t seem like much to me. No offense.
I’ve enjoyed reading the comments about the Derby contenders and, particularly, those contesting the Louisiana Derby. No matter how you slice it, the likely outcome of tomorrow’s race is a no-brainer. Epicenter has everything going his way: form, pace, class, track bias, distance. If he were to go off at his morning line of 7-5, he’d be a bargain. But I haven’t bet a 7-5 shot in many years, and I don’t plan to do it tomorrow. Besides, he’ll probably be around 3-5.
I’m going with KUPUNA (ML 8-1) across the board and with Epicenter in an exacta box. I expect Kupuna’s post-time odds to be about 12-1. After two sprint starts last year, he came back in a mile MSW at Oaklawn on Jan 15. He had a mid-pack stalking position in the early going, was wide most of the way, and won by 5 lengths. He followed with a 2nd-place finish to the well-regarded Cyberknife at 8.5f.
Kupuna’s trainer, Bret Calhoun wins graded stakes at a 23% clip. He won the Louisiana Derby in 2019 with By My Standards, who stalked the early pace and won at odds of 22-1.
Have you lost faith in Zozos? I thought you were extremely high on this colt?
I love Zozos! I think he has a decent shot. But I think he will be heavily bet (i.e., overbet). I have more faith in Zozos as a contender in TC races and beyond. For this particular race, I prefer the more experienced colt at a higher price. Kupuna’s last two works were sensational. And he’s owned by Larry Hirsch and Wayne Sanders. I was a big fan of “The Larry Sanders Show.”
Good luck but if Zozos wins…
I’ll be happy.
That was a decent second with Zozos but with the Kentucky Derby I’d pass for the Preakness Stakes.
I agree. Cox was, I’m sure, hoping to give the Z a chance to win the La Derby and go on to Louisville. But now it’s on to Baltimore.
I thought the character, “Senator Stern” played by ‘ Shandling in the movie Ironman 2 was great.
I haven’t seen Iron Man 2. 🙁 I must have an Iron Man Deficiency.
$1 million Group 2 UAE Derby Sponsored By Mubadala
One of the most impressive looking horses to visit Meydan all week has been trainer Bill Mott’s Gilded Age. The three-year-old son of Medaglia d’Oro cost $600,000 as a yearling at Keeneland and “certainly looks the part,” assistant trainer Neil Poznansky said.
“He has shipped over well and feels good going over this track.”
“Repetition is the mother of skill”… Tony Robbins
Would love to see him go to the Derby.
Ok I changed my mind and i’m going with Galt instead of RNR in the Loui. Just watched an interview with McPeek where he said RNR needs to progress over a few races off the layoff and that his 3rd would be his best.
So why Galt?
*Toss his FOY, you can’t close at Gulfstream, especially going 5 wide on both turns.
*Just before the incident, he was closing as fast if not a little faster than the horse who ended up finishing 3rd. So let’s say he would have finished on par or a little in front of the 3rd place finisher which means he would have earned about an 88 beyer? So he would be heading into the Loui on an 67>89>88 pattern, ready for a nice jump.
*He didn’t run the full race in the FOY so he should be a little fresher.
*He’s the only horse in this race who’s shown enough early speed to press/stay with Epicenter.
Good luck to all. Let’s win some money!
Forbidden Kingdom had a recorded work today. 6F – 1:14.00. I’d like to know Mr. Haskins thoughts if he reviewed the work.
He was working with an overmatched mate but he looked good doing it, rated nicely, and was strong past the wire.
Thank you for the recap.
BREAKING NEWS — four Baffert horses transferred to other trainers.
Messier, Doppelganger, Blackadder, and Maclaren Vale have left the Baffert barn, according to DRF.
Blackadder goes to Rudy Brisset, and the other three go to Tim Yakteen, who is based in So Cal and is a former assistant to Baffert and Charlie Whittingham.
OOPs — my apologies, Steve! I see you posted about this HOURS ago. Just didn’t read far enough down the comments!
No problem. Better to have a duplication than nothing at all
I like Maclaren Vale.
A friend was obsessed with McLaren Vale (wine) but now Heartland (wine) is the meilleur goût.
My sources tell me DOPPELGANGER is in great shape. Johnny will breeze him Saturday. Plan is to ship on Tuesday.
Very live horse
Does anyone recall the name of the horse who was scheduled to ship from SoCal for the Rebel but didn’t because they became fractious at the airport?
I think that it was McLaren Vale.
Considering all the factors & what you have to go on your list is well constructed & on point. You always bring your A game Steve to these blogs. If there was a vote & I had one, I would vote for you to be the Commissioner overseeing horse racing.
Oh well! I don’t every week but please know that I read this blog many times. I don’t feel that I have much to offer or add to your insights.
I still don’t have any idea on who will win or even who I really like.
IMO, the Derby isn’t isn’t the Derby anymore, not that I remember anyway. I don’t like the point system but it what we have.
The Twin Spires was hallowed ground for immortality at one time, now it has become anything but.
The Derby has become muddied in controversy of late and no one wins that race.
If I had to bet today then I would bet
Secret Oath (if she makes the gate) it has been quite a while since a filly won the Derby.
Classic Causeway
Forbidden Kingdom
White Abarrio
Thank you very much Deacon but I wouldnt touch that job. I’l be on the commission.
Yakteen and wifey Millie Ball both big BB supporters, watch put for Doppleganger in Arkansas, horse may not like Santa Anita, just put up a terrific work! Never easy, changing barns on top of a big race….but Yakteen used to work for Bob, knows the routine!
Just curious Matthew, but what is the physical distance from between the two barns? Are they spitting distance apart?
That I couldn’t tell you, but if I’m to understand things, Bob won’t be allowed on track??? Won’t be allowed to talk by phone to anyone on track??? I admit not knowing exactly how this is going to be happening.
Thanks Matthew, I’m intrigued myself on how everything is supposed to work. Technology has surpassed the rules of racing in some respects.
Doppelganger is going to make the Arkansas Derby VERY interesting !
Newgrange had much better form than Doppelganger has, going into the Rebel Stakes with a poor result. Let’s hope you’re optimism for Doppelganger is well founded.
A little off topic. Is it possible that Echo Zulu’s appearance in Saturday’s Fairgrounds Oaks could result in a “bridge-jumper” situation? None of her 5 opponents have run a race close to what EZ ran as a 2-year old. EZ has never lost a race and has never won by less than 4 lengths. But, it’s a horse race and anything can happen. Echo Zulu did draw the rail for the first time in her career and she is making her first start as a 3-year old. I love her workout pattern even though I don’t see any “bullets” on the page. You never know how a horse comes back off of a 4 1/2 month layoff.
If there is show betting there might be a bridge jumper! There have been 9 undefeated Breeders Cup winning 2yo fillies that started at three, 5 won.
5 won their FIRST STARTS, that is
Definitely, she will be 1/9 odds
I was thinking someone might jump on Epicenter in the Loui.
Tim Yakteen got all the Baffert horses. Steve to place Messier at #1 next ranking?
Messier, Doppelgänger and McLaren Vale will all move to the barn of Yakteen, Baffert’s former assistant
It sounds like BB will be able to keep a “close eye” on his horses. Maybe I should have put a “wink-wink” in there. I’m sure that BB’s worst nightmare is seeing Life Is Good going to Todd Pletcher and accomplishing everything that he has under his care.
Tim Yakteen is a former assistant to BB and a staunch BB supporter. People may remember that Yakteen is the guy that got into a “rumble” with fellow trainer Richard Baltas at Santa Anita over a perceived negative comment that Baltas may have made about BB. Both trainers were fined over the incident.
Former Baffert assistant with 38 starts this year get $1 million Derby contenders. Interesting
Baffert still calling the shots behind the scenes perhaps?
Ya think so?
Can’t wait to see what Churchill Downs has to say about this.
They were running out of time for the Derby and still a lot of other horses to go. Already looking forward to your next editon of the Dery Rankings!
There is a third Kentucky Derby Points race this weekend that is flying way under the radar. The Fukuryu in Japan is worth 40 points to the winner which could/should be enough to get into The Derby starting gate on May 7th. I know absolutely nothing about Japanese racing and won’t dare to guess who the winner of The Fukuryu might be.
Don’t trouble yourself with these colts, only 3 of the field in the Fukuryu Stakesare have actually been nominated for the Triple Crown races and they are mediocore even by Japanese dirt runner standard. Let’s just hope that none of the three above win the race as they would be eligable to run in the Kentucky Derby.
In the Louisiana, I rank Epicenter #1 and Rattle N Roll #2. I’m going to bet it the same way I bet the Rebel with Ethereal Road and Newgrainge.
$150 place RNR
$10 win RNR
$35 exacta EPI > RNR
$5 trifecta EPI > ZOZ > RNR
My angle on RNR is… off the long layoff… he made 2 moves before the incident on the far turn. At the top of the stretch when Hernandez shook the reigns he responded with a burst but got quickly shut off between horses. And then I liked his gallop out after the wire. Plus… $210k horse, McPeek, 2nd off layoff, on a much better track for his running style.
RE: In Due Time (KOTD Segment)
Per trainer Kelly Breen, “In Due Time came out of the FOY a little tired, and will bypass the Florida Derby. His first breeze, since finsihing 2nd in the FOY, is schduled for later this week”. In addition, Breen stated, “He’ll point In Due Time to the Wood, or the Blue Grass. The Lexington also would be a later option if needed”.
Currently, In Due Time has secured 20 Derby points, and by all indications, he’s still on the Derby trail. Good news for all of us Not This Time followers. BTW, another NTT colt, Chasing Time, is pointed to the Arkansas Derby.
That would really be something if 4 Not This Time colts made this year’s Derby starting gate.
Steve, there is nothing more fascinating than the Romanticism of thoroughbred breeding. Inbreeding, linebreeding, Rasmussen Factor, outcrossing et al are all tools of the geneticists while they determine which mare to which stallion. Sometimes, the closeness makes you a little uneasy. It certainly did with the Aga Khan in relation to the oversupply of Northern Dancer blood in the European herd. Even so. Coolmore’s geneticists appear to have steadied the ship over the past few decades.
In the US, the determination to breed speed to speed and to hell with stamina has been somewhat camouflaged by reducing the distance of most of the major races. Thank heavens they didn’t fiddle with the distance of the US Classics otherwise we’d have ended up with Quarter-horse style races. Lol.
Steve, I see you’ve been hard at work drilling through the numerous pedigrees to decipher which crossing is going creat that extra burst of speed to get the lucky colt or filly over the line and into the history books on the first Saturday in May. Unfortunately, for me anyway, you didn’t cover two of the three colts I feel have the potential to wrestle the roses on to their shoulders at Churchill Downs. Namely, We the People and Charge It.
Speaking of other colts that could make a noise later, Capensis has just started training while Naval Aviator, and Zatip have put in a couple of works over the past month so they should make a presence soon. The Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby aren’t the most highly anticipated of preps but who knows what might come of them?
The Dubai World Cup and the New Orleans Classic look like fantastic races. Allez, Country Grammer!! Allez, Proxy!! Thanks again, Steve, for your tireless endeavor to make the Kentucky Derby preps more fun than the big race itself.
I’m looking forward to see how Zozos performs for Brad Cox, in the Louisiana Derby. His sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer, which has been a successful cross in breeding winners of Triple Crown races. He’s a Barry and Joni Butzow homebred colt that won his last race by 10 lengths, with a late pace figure of 111, far and above the rest of the entrants in the Louisiana Derby field. Obviously, he’ll be making a serious move up in class, but he wouldn’t be entered if Brad Cox didn’t believe he could compete at this level of competition.
Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, Zozos checks enough boxes to make him a major player in this race, and could be a monster in the making, IMO.
That said, I’ll key Epicenter, RNR and Zozos on top, in the first 3 slots, with ALL underneath in the 4th slot in my superfecta wager (cost: $36.00). In addition, I’ll flip that over and play ALL on top in the 1st slot, with Epicenter, RNR and Zozos underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots, another super wager.
That is: 2,6,9/ 2,6,9/ 2,6,9/ ALL ($36.00)
ALL/ 2,6,9/ 2,6,9/ 2,6,9 ($36.00).
One last thing about Zozos, he could carry the X-Factor large heart gene.
Safe trips to all.
Kenny McPeek commented that Tiz the Bomb will run in The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes, but even if he wins, he might not go to The Kentucky Derby. McPeek says that his main goal for the horse is the 2,000 Guineas and then The Epsom Derby. McPeek also said that he thinks Tiz the Bomb is best on Synthetic & Turf. I think that most people would agree on that.
I’ve said same 2 mo ago.
KD winner Grindstone has passed away.
Silver Charm is now the oldest living KD winner.
Yes Lynda, the worst thing about following racing, over a lengthy period of time, is the daily fear of reading that a beloved favorite has passed.
Anatomy of a $20…….$5wp Call Me Midnight…..$2 ex CMM to Epicenter and $8 ex Epicenter to CMM.
That’s a resonable play. I may copy.
Off topic again: Life Is Good drew the rail in Dubai and tries 10 furlongs for the first time. Todd Pletcher has never won The Dubai World Cup. Can those 3 things be his undoing at even-money or less? Hot Rod Charlie has been prepping in Dubai. Can Jose Ortiz make the difference on Midnight Bourbon? An interesting race.
…or will Country Grammer go from strength, to strength. Life is Good wouldn’t want miss the start, that sand really stings.
Steve…
Nice release (Gilded Age) available on the Dubai breakfast menu for Saturday. Don Alberto (breeder) put him in the KEESEPT sale to (I assume) take on a partner at fair market value. Alberto Stable shows multiple racing partnership interests in the past. In Gilded Age’s case Alberto kept his faith in this colt by showing an ownership interest after the sale… Gilded Age sold for 600K.
Ownership aside, physically the GA reminds me of Nijinsky and the old champ occupies his pedigree in just the right spot. So too Gilded Age’s ears are huge as why wouldn’t they be? People need a reason to bet, and those ears in the scheme of all things DNA are as good as any… I’m having an English muffin and strawberry jam at the finish… with a cup of black tea and a nap before the Fairgrounds. .
are you in Dubai? My favorite show in TV now on HBO is “The Gilded age”
The Gilded Age was fantastic. I wish that each episode could have been 90 minutes instead of just an hour. I was sorry that this week’s episode was the last of the season.
Ditto
Not in Dubai…
Mott’s had seven Kentucky Derby starters in the past.. His relationship training for a man like Alan Paulson may have instilled a dormant, now growing paramount desire to seek the biggest prize in his golden years. He’s expressed enjoying his experience with Country House and the work he did getting that horse nearest the CD wire at 75/1 speaks for itself. GILDED AGE is in the deft hands of a seasoned trainer who’s capitulated to dream of an outright win.
I love, love, love a week dedicated to pedigrees. You can bet I’ll revisit this come Belmont Stakes. Extra thanks for this one Steve.
You are very welcome
I’m curious about Rattle N Roll in the Loui. He seemed to make two moves in the FOY. So he could fire a nice one here. The question is, will Galt show the early speed he’s capable of to keep Epicenter honest on the front end. If RNR improves substantially in this one, he’s on a nice path leading into the derby.
Hey Steve.
Sounds like you have inside news on Emmanuel’s next start ? I have early Future bets on him and I’m a fan. Was a fan of Rock Your World also last year and had serval posts on your site last year. I always peak in on Mondays for your current analysis. Enjoy others input also. If you have news on Emmanuel and Blue Grass next start …. do you feel like that’s the best option for him? He would need to win or place 2nd. Smile Happy and other tuff horses are probables for this race.
Yes thats where hes going. Not many choices. Pletcher has horses in the fla derby and wood
The Blue Grass Stakes is turning into a mini Kentucky Derby all by itself.
Straight Up G was getting very leg weary at the finish of his win over 5 of his Sunday rivals in last month’s Mine That Bird Stakes at Sunland Park. Sunday’s Sunland Park Derby is 1/16 of a mile longer. Will that extra distance make “G” vulnerable on Sunday? Maybe. He will certainly have to deal with Slow Down Andy. Bye Bye Bobby and Classic Moment were both getting to him at the end of The Mine That Bird. I think that those 4 horses will make up the trifecta on Sunday.
I don’t want it to sound like I’m recommending a trifecta bet. Personally, I never play a trifecta in a race with less that 10-horses. It’s just one of my rules. However, the ADW that I use is offering a promotion on all the Kentucky Derby Points races if you can hit the “tri”. So, I will put in a 50-cent box. Now, I have to figure out a trifecta for The UAE Derby which looks quite a bit more difficult. Steve Haskin mentions Gilded Age in his “Knocking on the Door” section. I’ll use him.
Great column as usual Steve. Any weather hiccups this weekend?
Fairgrounds looks great for the rest of the week. I don’t know about Dubai or New Mexico.
Thank you Laura. 75 and sunny for New Orleans
Better weather then my part of Virginia! The other thing is very appropriate to have these pedigree discussions here on Secretariat.com as many thought he couldn’t stretch out to a mile and a quarter, let alone the mile and a half at the Belmont. Good luck to all!
Seems Baffert and the owners are running out of time. None of this has done the sport any good at all or has it?
I look forward to your weekly rankings. I also love all your columns, Steve.
I appreciate that Suzie. Thank you very much.
Methinks Epicenter is going to be hard to beat Sat, Call Me Midnight will be my play again, but I will play an Epicenter-Call Me Midnight ex box……
RE Call Me Midnight’s breeding Honest Lady was one of my favorite horses! Her Breeders Cup Sprint was one of if not the strongest sprint field in BCup history, and she was “GAI-NING GRRRROUND”, as Bataglia liked to say…..
I bet her at 30-1. Tough beat
Wow I thought Honest Lady would’ve been among the favorites, she was always so good…..I remember the race cuz I talked with Bruce Headley, what a guy he was! He told me he was very happy walking into the winners circle—-and someone was very angry about running out of racetrack, with his filly, a daughter of Seattle Slew, a real honest lady!
Honest Lady was one of my favorites as well and thought she had an excellent chance of winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Steve may recall better than I can, but I believe Bobby Frankel was very high on her for the Kentucky Derby. Then came the disappointing result in the San Rafael Stakes. So sprinting became her forte.
… and a 7th in the Santa Anita Derby finally ended any Derby hope for the Seattle Slew filly…
Nelson, Honest Lady’s pedigree is emphatically distance oriented but you never what comes out at the end. One more stride in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and Honest Lady was in front of Kona Gold. Kent Desormeaux brought her home like speeding train.
Kona Gold was just off the 20 4/5 first quarter, and was the only one from the early pace that was around for the finish line photo, there were more horses than just Honest Lady closing fast at the finish of that race, which included some real tough sprinters….
That’s right Matthew, I just watched the race again. Lots of famous names in the race and Tom Durkin the caller. Honest Lady just needed 10 more feet of track.
An Epicenter-Simplification exacta would be the coolest thing in racing since Justify. I wish, I wish, I wish. Love the possibility! Racing would be talking about those two and their sire and dam sire for decades! What do you all think? Could it happen?
Hey Sally
“Could it happen?
That exacta, Epicenter/Simplification, not only could happen, but I expect it to happen.
I have Simplification listed as my number one Derby contender, followed by Epicenter as my number two contender on the Derby trail.
In Derby Futures Pool 2, I boxed those two in a $2.00 exacta wager. Epicenter closed at 24-1 and Simplification closed at 43-1.
An Epicenter/Simplification finish would payout $2,007.00
A Simplification/Epicenter finish would payout $1,895.00
BTW, it’s possible that Not This Time could have 4 colts in this year’s Derby starting gate, (Simplification, Epicenter, In Due Time and Chasing Time. Not likely, but very possible.
It would be wonderful for racing. Can’t wait to see what happens.
I watched the Rattle n roll and Smile Happy work. I thought they both went well with Smile Happy getting the easier 5 furlongs. Intrigued to see though how RnR goes at 1 3/16. I think this race might set up for him to get into the top 2.
Steve H.-
Thanks for the pedigree analysis of the major KD 2022 contenders. Enjoyed reading a dependable source of information on a subjective topic such as equine pedigree.
In your analysis, came across some old favorites of the past, such as Crozier, Ela-Mana-Mou (IRE), and Little Current. Those names are etched in my horse racing mind permanently. I may regret saying this, but I don’t think they breed horses like them anymore. Nowadays, the emphasis is mostly on speed and more speed. Where it stops, nobody knows for sure.
Anyway, this week was a welcome relief from quantitative analysis, Beyers, Thoro Graph, and Brisnet. Keep up the nice work.
7.5 Furlongs
Rasmussen Factor is “breeding back to superior females through different individuals.” His Majesty and Graustark have the same sire, Ribot. Based on the definition RM is not present. Thanks for your time.
I’m well aware of the definition. Check out the dam of Graustark and His Majesty
Sorry for sounding flippant regarding RM definition. I’m sure you’re quite aware of it. Was hoping to enlighten those readers here that were not. I looked at Flower Bowl’s pedigree. Please elaborate.
Hey Tom Jones
I for one, can always use a little “enlightenment”, now and then. 🙂
I dont understand the point youre trying to make. Elaborate what?
I believed different males had to be bred to the same female within the first five generations.
You believe right
This was on the Kentucky Derby website. FYI
7. Simplification’s pedigree features intriguing duplications.
Because Glorious Song (through Rahy and his grandson Giant’s Causeway) appears in the pedigree of Not This Time, and Saint Ballado is prominent on Simplification’s maternal side, his pedigree sports the “Rasmussen Factor” of doubling up on a superior female. In this case, it’s duplicating Glorious Song and Saint Ballado’s dam, Ballade. (Ballade’s sire, French champion *Herbager, also makes an extra appearance of his own in the pedigree of Candy Ride.)
Another instance of the Rasmussen Factor occurs in the pedigree of Ballado’s Halo. Her dam, Goulash, is inbred to Broodmare of the Year Cosmah (here appearing as the dam of Halo and Maribeau). Perhaps that’s one reason why Goulash, the winner of a minor sprint stakes at Fairplex and near-misser in the 1996 Linda Vista H. (G3) at Santa Anita, ended up becoming a significant producer.
The RF like all inbreeding goes through five generations. Simplification goes to the sixth generation
Just to chime in for moment, “Simplification goes to the sixth generation”. That explains it.
Thanks for the clarification, Steve. Much appreciated.
Thanks for the clarification Steve. I remembered reading the post above that mentioned the RF a couple weeks ago. I was hoping Simplification fit the criteria, as I know from reading American Turf Monthly, it is a potent pedigree factor.
You can call it the Rasmussen Factor light. Lol
Lol…..Lol Steve, I’ve long been searching for
the absolute right word to describe these close types.
Figured if I gave you enough time, you’d brand it.
Rasmussen Factor light. Leon would have howled.
Thanks.
Rommy
Thank you Rommy.
Hi JCAL
In an earlier post, I suggested that Simplification could have the “Rasmussen Factor”, but in Steve’s reply, he stated “Rasmussen Factor No”. Hopefully. Mr. Haskin will read your comment and explain to both of us why the Rasmussen Factor does not apply to Simplification.
Interpreting pedigrees is not my long suit, I’ll leave that to the experts. Suffice to say Simplification has an intriguing pedigree.
He appears to have an excellent mix of speed/stamina, and the ability to close with the determination of a street fighter.
I have several big Derby Futures wagers on this colt and feel pretty good about all of them.
I’m looking forward to the Florida Derby, just to see if he can turn the tables on White Abarrio. I’m convinced he’ll do just that.
I just did
Thanks for the clarification, Steve. I should have known not to question your assessment of any given pedigree.
Needless to say, you’ve forgotten more about pedigrees than I’ll ever know.
“The Rasmussen Factor” is inbreeding to superior females within five generation through different individuals.
Love all the pedigree info. I had never heard of Not This Time – any comments on why he’s doing so well as a sire? would you have expected it?
Trained by Dale Romans, he was a hot 2YO in 2016 who unfortunately had to be retired before he ever contested a 3YO campaign. Was Dale’s best shot at the Derby in years, unfortunately.
As for why he’s a hot young sire, I’m no expert, but he’s by Giant’s Causeway and — as Steve mentioned — is inbred to both Secretariat and Ta Wee, two epic horses (and two of my personal favorites!)
I saw him at Taylor Made and he is drop dead gorgeous. You can never tell which stallions will hit. We have to wait to see if this is long term.
Thanks for both replies. His kids will be fun to keep an eye on, along with hoping for a good one now and then from California Chrome (wishful thinking). I don’t wager, but really enjoy looking at pedigrees and the ‘drop dead gorgeous on their toes’ in the post parades, plus, of course, the ones with the pretty tails.
Winning Giant’s Causeway babies have been catching my attention, and I always look for Secretariat daughters, but didn’t recognize the name Ta Wee. A few years ago, you wrote (and mention often) about pedigree influences on mostly?l sires who were extremely durable and seem to pass that along to their descendants. Of course, with most retiring at 3, it’s not very informative for the colts, but I always enjoy looking for those names in the pedigrees of the girls and geldings.
Thanks again, Steve. Love the work you put into your always wonderfully written articles.
Hi Steve, I see you didn’t mention Charge It in this column this week…Is he still scheduled for the Florida Derby do you know?
I wrote a lot about him last week and mentioned he is going in the Florida Derby. Nothing further to say about him this week. I will write about him again next week leading up to the Florida Derby.
Excellent column, Steve. For pedigree info, I just leave the dirty work to you! It’s much appreciated. With regard to Epicenter and Simplification, do you happen to know if a stallion has ever sired a 1st-place and 2nd-place finisher in the same Kentucky Derby? If so, I’m quite certain that there’s never been a sire exacta in which the dam sire is also the same for both.
(Side note: The rankings show Pioneer of Medina and Call Me Midnight together at 15 and 16, but CMM below it at 16.)
Thanks Eddie. That got messed up. I will fix it.
Great! So what about the sire exacta history?
My brain dont work that fast. I need the gang here to do the research.
Nelson to the rescue! LOL
Hi EddieF.
I believe I had answered that question before… anyways, we will have to go back to the 1890 Derby to see the first Sire Exacta courtesy of the Stallion Longfellow who sired Riley and Bill Letcher.
Then in 1894 we can see Falsetto as the sire of Chant and Pearl Song. Finally, the last Sire Exacta was seen in the famous 1948 Derby with Citation defeating his brother Coaltown both by sired the five time Champion Stallion BULL LEA.
There were 1900 registered foals during the 1880’s compared to the 30,000 on average since 1990… so statistically it is harder to get a sire exacta now than in the 19th century…
Before, the distinguished ladies here start enquiring about the role of the dams I would like to just mention that Steve reminded me about Funny Cide and Empire Maker being one exacta for the family 6d deriving from the Reine-de-Course Bravura…
and 5,819 registered foals in 1945 when Citation and Coaltown were foaled.
1,900 vs. 30,000 yearly average
Thanks, Nelson. You da Maan! You jogged my memory about your earlier post, particularly about 1948. Did you notice than 1948 is a numerical anagram of 1894? Amazing! 😉
Well, good to see Forbidden Kingdom move up even though his sprinter DNA/background
is so strong. Looking forward to more prep races to see where everyone is really falling out.
Really like Smile Happy, Epicenter and White Abarrio. Looking forward to seeing what Cyberknife can do too.
Alot still not clear yet but seeing their pedigree information in your write up is really
informative. Your knowledge is literally boundless about the history of horse racing.
Thank you Paula. Did you send me a Facebook friend request? I have doubts it was really you
Think she has been hacked. I got one too, deleted it.
I thought so
Best column yet. I’ll be pouring over this one a few times in the next couple weeks. Things are starting to heat up!
Thank you Jo Anne
Chasing Time had a bullet 5f work this morning in 1:00.
I believe another impressive allowance winner We The People is also pointing to the AR Derby.
He is. I mentioned that last week.
This could be one of those years where the Derby favorite is 5-1.
The final preps will determine that.
Way off topic: Saturday is the penultimate card of the Fairgrounds meet and the card as a whole isn’t as strong as The Risen Star card IMO. Chess Chief returns to Fairgrounds in Saturday’s 9th race. Chess Chief is the horse that is 5 for 10 at Fairgrounds and 0 for 21 everywhere else. I was critical of his connections for scratching out of a race on The Lecomte card in January to run in The Pegasus World Cup. Well, it turns out that they knew what they were doing. Chess Chief earned $50,000 for running 6th of 9 runners and 15 lengths behind winner Life is Good.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing an excellent pedigree analysis on your top 16 Derby contenders.
You mentioned that Smile Happy and Secret Oath both have the Rasmussen Factor in their respective pedigree lines.
Maybe I’m mistaken, but doesn’t Simplification have the Rasmussen Factor has well?
If there’s a horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby that fits the description of a “Cinderella” story, Simplification is the one.
Tami Bobo and Antonio Sano fit the description of “Cinderella” stories as well.
All three (horse, owner and trainer) faced major obstacles early on, but have achieved success through pure grit and determination.
If Simplification wins the KD, we’ll know that the Cinderella horseshoe fits Simplification’s right hoof perfectly. 🙂
Cinderella story Yes. Rasmussen Factor No
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
With regard to the Rasmussen Factor, I must have misread Simplification’s pedigree.
I thought the inbreeding to Herbager on the dam side, would signify the Rasmussen Factor presence.
That said, as you pointed out, “He is the kind of horse you really want to see in the Derby”.
HAVE SKILLS WILL TRAVEL. After riding at Fairgrounds on Saturday on plenty of well-meant horses for their Louisiana Derby card, Joel Rosario is named on several horses at Sunland Park on Sunday. He will ride a Steve Asmussen entrant in The Sunland Derby, but I think that the California shippers hold the key to the race. Rivals will need to slow down Andy. I also give Straight Up G a shot.
Straight Up G is in over his head, in my opinion, and the other Cal-bred Slow Down Andy tries again v open company….we shall see! I’m sure Straight Up G will send…Mario needs to SETTLE Slow Down, and Mario is good at that!
I have the highest respect for your opinions. Especially, about the California horses. But, Straight Up G already beat 5 of his rivals on Saturday in last month’s Mine That Bird Stakes which was a prep for The Sunland Derby. Chrome King finished 6th in his last race at Turf Paradise. That leaves Slow Down Andy. If you are saying that Straight Up G is over-matched against Slow Down Andy, I can accept that. Keep in mind that Straight Up G has beaten Finneus and finished ahead of him twice and we all know that Finneus beat Slow Down Andy at Del Mar. I will stand by my statement that the 2 Cal-Breds are the horses to beat. G’s win over the track could give him a slight edge. The Asmussen/Rosario runner, Classic Moment, not only lost to Straight Up G in The Mine That Bird, he also finished 6th in The Southwest at Oaklawn against what we now know are some of the slowest horses on The Derby Trail. I don’t look at Straight Up G as a Kentucky Derby horse and if Slow Down Andy can’t beat this bunch on Sunday, I won’t be considering him a Derby horse either. I’m going to look at replays of Straight Up G’s last 2 races. Good luck this weekend.
Wow! Mr. Haskin really put a lot of work into this week’s list. Many of my questions were answered and I will be using this week’s list as a reference for the rest of The Triple Crown Season. Thanks.
I did Tommy. Hope it helps
It does. Thanks again.
You still have Slow Down Andy on your list, that’s the way! Messier was nine lengths clear in the Los Al race, did Slow Down beat him on the square, or was that the real Slow Down in Louisiana? I still like the colt! Get a good race into him, QUALIFY, and then worry about the others, either way if he gets in he will fetch a big number! It’s all about TRIP ..and Mario Gutierrez has provided good trips, TWICE–in Louisville.
I dont still have him on the list. He was on a while ago but has been off since his last race. He is back on because his works have been great, he gets blinkers, he looks more professional, and a victory against a mediocre field will put him in the Derby.
Time is ticking down most will have only one more run at getting into the Derby it’s going to be here before you know it. Another great read thanks for your insight as always. I am still looking at Zandon showing up big & Mc Peek holds a strong hand with several runners….
Thanks. I hope Zandon finally gets to fulfill his promise.
Like Zandon,hoping he runs well.