Derby Rankings: Week 10
Is it possible this crop isn’t as deep as we once thought or is it we have weeded out many of the pretenders and are about to welcome a new wave of talented lightly raced horses? We have lost a big name from the top, the Fair Grounds horses have not lived up to their promise, and we have had two highly ranked Brad Cox horses run terribly for no apparent reason. Let’s hope things start going smoother and we can finally get a clear picture just how good this crop really is. Right now we have the Big 3 and then everyone else. For those who wish to discuss Saturday’s Florida Derby, handicap the race together and talk about the Derby Rankings and share your Derby opinions, you can still join me on my virtual forum this Saturday at 3 p.m. as part of the Secretariat Birthday Celebration. We can even talk about the morning’s Dubai World Cup and UAE Derby. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 10, Mar. 22
By Steve Haskin
1. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
He will have a huge class advantage over his opponents in the Florida Derby, and although it wouldn’t be the end of the world if he finishes a fast-closing second, it would have to be to an extraordinarily talented horse and he would have to have a less than ideal trip. He certainly can’t give himself as much to do as he did in the Fountain of Youth. He should be in contention at the head of the stretch and he also has an advantage returning to the regular finish line and a longer stretch. With the recent impressive victories by Baffert’s Life is Good and Concert Tour, he had fallen to No. 4 on most Derby rankings before Life is Good’s injury, but I still haven’t seen any reason to drop him from the top spot that he has occupied for so long. Another impressive victory on Saturday and he likely will retain that spot the rest of the way regardless of what the others do. As McGaughey said, “It’s fun to watch him run.” He has been giving him nothing but half-mile breezes between :50 and :51 most of the winter, but it has proven to be successful, so he’s not changing anything now. In his last work in :50 2/5 in company, he came home his final quarter under no urging at all in :23 and change.
2. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
Well, there is no doubt the champ is ready after his sensational five-furlong work in a bullet :59 flat, fastest of 25 works at the distance. With him it’s all about ability and we know he has plenty of that to go along with his versatility and adaptability. And he does still have the fastest Thoro-Graph number and has shown that speed in his works. Unlike most of the others, you just can’t plan strategy against him because he can counter anything you throw at him. According to Godolphin’s Jimmy Bell he has been uncomplicated from day one and never went through any awkward stages. Niall Brennan, who gave him his early training, had him pegged as a top prospect right from the beginning. And it took only one breeze at Keeneland to convince Cox this was the real deal. He has had a willing attitude ever since and always gives everything in his works and in his races. So, as I’ve been saying, good luck trying to figure out a way to beat him.
3. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit)
I have to admit his speed figures are nothing to get excited about, with his Thoro-Graph number improving ever so slightly from a ”5 1/2″ to a fairly moderate “4 1/2,” which he probably will have to improve at least three points to set him up for the Kentucky Derby. But I believe we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg with him, as he still has a great deal of room for improvement, having just made his two-turn debut. Let’s see what he does at 1 1/8 miles before we form an opinion on how fast he is, and, remember, he did win the Rebel under wraps so he certainly could have run faster. He clearly is Baffert’s big Derby horse now and one who will handle the longer distances. What excited Baffert was how much he reminded him of American Pharoah down the backstretch of the Rebel, the way he was striding out so smoothly with his ears pricked. That is enough praise for any horse. Baffert knows we haven’t seen anything close to his best and is looking forward to stretching him out another furlong. With his first two-turn race behind him, don’t be surprised to see him rate off the pace this time, just like American Pharoah did coming off the Rebel.
4. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
I have stuck with him through the ups and downs since day one, even excusing his 13-length defeat in the Remsen Stakes when John Velazquez had to go to three right-handed whips on the backstretch to wake him up. I attributed that to his dislike of the slop, but when he went into snooze mode again early in the Sam F. Davis Stakes I began thinking it was him, which totally contradicted his extremely gutsy victory over Greatest Honour going a mile and an eighth prior to those races. And now coming off that sensational 11-length romp last time out with blinkers and Lasix added we finally should find out in the Florida Derby who the real Known Agenda is. Pletcher worked him five furlongs and he went off a slow quarter in :14 1/5 and then came home in a quick :48 1/5 to complete the work in 1:02 2/5. I still believe this colt has a lot of untapped ability and I’m looking for another big race. You can’t say this horse doesn’t keep you guessing, but all the guessing could be over on Saturday night. With all those European Derby winners in his pedigree and one of the all-time great classic sire lines in his female family he’s just waiting for a mile and a quarter for everything to make sense.
5. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Indan Miss, by Indian Charlie)
He actually had the best Thoro-Graph pattern going into the Louisiana Derby, having paired up his career best figure of “3 3/4″ in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and that is the main thing I look for because pairing up a career best number proves it is legitimate and is the perfect launch pad to move forward, which he obviously did. You certainly can’t doubt this colt’s courage and his willingness to get in a street fight. He loves to battle and almost won the Lewis despite being only 75% ready for the race and getting bounced around between horses the length of the stretch. Being a half-brother to sprint champion Mitole and a great-grandson of sprint champion Smoke Glacken you wouldn’t think he’d relish 1 3/16 miles, but he pays no attention to family and just does his own thing. When he sold at the Fasig-Tipton October yearling sale, Sean Feld, who was selling him and three other yearlings with his brother Bob, contacted Dennis O’Neill and told him he had an Oxbow half-brother to Mitole he liked who wasn’t getting any action. So he sent him photos of the colt and a video of him walking and Dennis fell in love with him, buying him for a bargain $110,000. And the colt has been a joy ever since. He does everything right and is very easy on himself, constantly sleeping in his stall. Even though he had never been on the lead, Joel Rosario called Doug O’Neill the morning of the race and told him he wanted to go to the front, all but assuring him he’ll go wire to wire. He got the green light and Charlie did the rest. Dennis remembers the day Doug told him following the colt’s neck maiden victory with blinkers added that he is a completely different horse now and he’s going to run him in the BC Juvenile. Dennis thought he was crazy, but he nearly pulled it off at 94-1 and is the only horse to get close to Essential Quality. If you’re going to have six weeks to the Derby, this is exactly the kind of race you want, and at this distance.
6. Risk Taking (Chad Brown, Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
He breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5. Brown has finalized his plans with his three Klaravich Stable Derby hopefuls. Risk Taking and Gotham runner-up Crowded Trade will both run in the Wood Memorial and Highly Motivated, third in the Gotham, will head for the Blue Grass Stakes. As much promise as Crowded Trade and Highly Motivated have shown, Risk Taking gets the higher ranking because he is far more advanced and has already proven himself at 1 1/8 miles and will be looking to score his third straight victory at nine furlongs. With a huge Thoro-Graph leap from a “10 1/2” to a “3 1/4” in the Withers Stakes, it would seem a wise decision to wait for the Wood Memorial to avoid a possible “bounce.” Now we will just have to see whether he can continue to improve enough to set himself up a for a peak performance in the Kentucky Derby. I keep saying this colt seems like a throwback type. He’s tough, he’s sound, and he runs hard. And he has shown he can be put under pressure early and be able to sustain his run a long way. We will also see if he’s even the best horse in his own barn as he takes on the lightly raced but rapidly improving Crowded Trade. Check out the probable Wood field that is shaping up in Knocking on the Door.
7. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
Just like that he likely will be one of the favorites in the Santa Anita Derby, and those Derby points look a lot more reachable. His connections have never been afraid to take on the giants, as we saw when they ran Accelerate against Arrogate. Owner Kosta Hronis said the plan all along was to take on Life is Good at home. That’s how much they think of this horse, who, as we said last week, could be special if he handles the dirt the same as the grass. And his pedigree and his works say he should. We may have gotten a sneak preview in his last work, in which he went five furlongs in 1:00 flat. Rock Your World has shown in his two starts on grass that he has early speed, can engage other horses and withstand pressure, but also has quick-fire acceleration and can burst clear of horses in a flash. If he possesses those same weapons on dirt, watch out. There is just something about this colt I find very intriguing, even with only two starts. As I mentioned, if you watched him gallop out after both those races, you knew they had big plans for him.
8. Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens, Pioneerof the Nile – Sunday Affair, by A.P. Indy)
He had an easy half-mile breeze in :50 4/5 in his first work since his gutsy victory in the Gotham Stakes. Jerkens said he had a hard race in the Gotham and he’s not the heaviest horse in the world, so he really didn’t need anything quicker or more strenuous. With his Thoro-Graph leap from a “9” to a “3” he is pretty much in the same position as Risk Taking, only the Chad Brown-trained colt will have more time between races going into the Wood. With Crowded Trade coming off only one maiden sprint victory in the Gotham, you have to wonder if he’s pretty exceptional in his own right, actually running a faster Thoro-Graph number than the winner, or does that detract at all from Weyburn’s performance. Right now, the feeling here is that they both are very good colts, as is third-place finisher Highly Motivated. One thing you can be sure of is that this colt has a ton of improvement left in him, especially stretching out to two turns, and if he makes it to Churchill Downs, Jerkens will have him ready to go a mile and a quarter.
9. Collaborate (Saffie Joseph, Into Mischief – Quiet Temper, by Quiet American)
He had his final tuneup for the Florida Derby, working five furlongs in a solid 1:01 flat. Like many lightly raced horses who have demolished weaker fields we can only speculate how good a horse he really is and how he will perform against far more talented and classier horses. What makes this colt stand out is how easily he does things and how much faster he’s going than it looks because of his humongous stride. Even early on he was considered remarkably athletic for such a big horse with a smooth, easy-going stride. Yes his one victory came in a maiden race, but he crushed his opponents by 12 lengths looking as if he was two-minute licking in the morning. Obviously we won’t know he good he is until he takes on Greatest Honour, Known Agenda, and Spielberg, who have far more experience in graded stakes. But for now we just have to go by the eye test and see if he can take that big step forward. Of course he will need to finish no worse than second, and we saw what happened to O Besos, just missing second by a head after rallying from last in the Louisiana Derby, and that head could very well cost him a spot in the Derby.
10. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
He lost a week of training after getting sick following his second-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes, but he’s back on track and will step in and replace Life is Good as Baffert’s Santa Anita Derby hope. Although he has been living in Life is Good’s shadow all year trying in vain to catch him and was beaten badly by him in the San Felipe, he did come closer than anyone in the Sham Stakes and received a big boost when Hot Rod Charlie, who he defeated in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, came back to win the Louisiana Derby impressively. Now he finds himself as the likely favorite in what promises to be a wide-open Santa Anita Derby. But he won’t be the barn’s only representative, as Baffert is planning on running Defunded, who is coming off an impressive maiden victory going six furlongs in which he rallied in the stretch to win going away in 1:09 4/5. Medina Spirit has shown he can close from off the pace and can win on lead, and that he is a tough competitor the way he dug in and held off Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie in the Lewis after it looked as if they had him measured at the top of the stretch. He clearly was Baffert’s third best Derby hopeful, but he has moved up to No. 2 and we’ll see if can stamp himself as a legitimate contender in the Santa Anita Derby.
11. Helium (Mark Casse, Ironicus – Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
Casse said the plans to go straight to the Derby haven’t changed. As much as it goes against history on so many counts and is a monumental task for any horse, you can make a case that with his Thoro-Graph number jumping from an “8 1/4″ to a “3,” there was risk of having him go backwards with another race. But the fact is eight weeks to the Derby, having only one start at 3, and never having run farther than 1 1/16 miles are three obstacles that have not been overcome since the early 1900s. Casse feels that getting that “3” Thoro-Graph figure “puts him with the big boys.” As skeptical as I am about Helium accomplishing this, Casse seems confident he is doing the right thing and I have to admire his confidence in not only his horse’s ability, but his own, getting him there fit enough, seasoned enough, and sharp enough to handle 19 opponents going a mile and a quarter with only two seven-furlong races on Polytrack last year and a 1 1/16-mile race this year under him. So why in the world is ranked in the Top 12? Because there was no way he was supposed to do what he did in the Tampa Bay Derby, and when a horse has shown he can do something he’s not supposed to do you have to give him and his trainer some benefit of the doubt.
12. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
Although he has frustrated his connections in the past, I thought his fourth-place finish in a maiden race that he was expected to win, was a super performance considering he had to go six-wide on the first turn, run five-wide the entire race, and displayed a powerful turn of foot sweeping by horses on the final turn, It was not surprising he couldn’t sustain his run in the stretch. Then it was learned he lost a shoe in the race and came back with mucus in his lungs. Since that race I have been waiting for him to break his maiden so he could put himself on the Derby trail. He was shipped to Aqueduct for a mile and an eighth race and despite coming from Gulfstream and running on a very slow track he was able to stalk the early pace and draw off to a 5 1/2-length victory. He won’t have an easy time of it in the Wood Memorial, but he does have the bottom, he’s very professional, and he has one of the strongest pedigrees of any 3-year-old. Now it’s just a question of whether he’s good enough to handle proven stakes horses.
13. Nicky the Vest (Jonathan Thomas, Runhappy – Tazarine, by Cat Thief)
Can a horse coming off only two New York-bred races in his life find happiness in the Wood Memorial and go on to be one of the leading contenders in the Kentucky Derby? This year anything is possible and this is the time to latch on to a few of these lightly raced horses who have shown potential and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. He’s definitely sharp enough, as indicated by his bullet five-furlong work in 1:00 1/5. As I’ve been saying, with him it’s been about the eye test and he passes on all counts. To simplify things, he just looks like a flat-out runner, even if it has been against New York-breds. The only reason he is just below the Top 12 is that he hasn’t been two turns. He has beautiful action, gets down low, and has great extension to his stride. And his victory in the Gander Stakes was one of the most visually impressive performances I’ve seen all year. Can he duplicate it against far classier horses? That’s what we can’t wait to find out.
14. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch to Moon, by Malibu Moon)
Well, he’s the last one standing from the Fair Grounds big three. There is no doubting his honesty and consistency and never having been out of the money in seven starts, all of them at a mile or longer. He has the pedigree and you can see he’s been developing physically. He can run on the lead or off the pace, but he still hasn’t figured out a way to catch horses in the stretch. Running on his home track and being in a perfect position the whole way, he was unable to get by Hot Rod Charlie and even let him open up and win by two lengths. He’s always going to be a factor, but if he’s going to have any chance to win the Kentucky Derby he is going to have to take advantage of the six-week layoff by continuing to develop physically and find a weapon he can use to finish off his opponents. With Life is Good gone, he might be an excellent candidate to set the pace in the Derby and keep going. Many times horses who have a reluctance to pass horses in the stretch are themselves very hard to pass on the lead.
15. Roman Centurian (Simon Callaghan, Empire Maker – Spare Change, by Bernardini)
This is one horse you don’t want to give up on, He had no chance to threaten Life is Good in the San Felipe the way the race was run. His second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was very encouraging and it was announced he will head to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial, as trainer Simon Callaghan said that race and the new surface should set up for him well. But with the defection of Life is Good, will they change plans and stay home? As of Sunday he is still in the Wood. Perhaps Hot Rod Charlie had the right idea skipping the San Felipe and not having to chase Life is Good. Don’t forget, I thought enough of him after his maiden victory to rank him in the top 12 in the Week 1 Rankings, which I normally would never do. But with his strong pedigree and look of a true distance horse, I can’t get too down on him based on a 1 1/16-mile race with a small field and a top Derby contender alone on the lead who strung out the field. He had a visually impressive half-mile breeze in :50 2/5, in which he was kept wide turning for home and had a very strong gallop-out and I believe he will be tough wherever he runs.
16. Spielberg (Bob Baffert, Union Rags – Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
After finishing a strong second to Essential Quality in the Southwest Stakes despite a terrible start, he is heading to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby. Baffert said he came out of the Southwest in great shape and just needs to break well this time. As expected, he has him razor sharp, working him five furlongs in :59 2/5. He has had an up and down career, but what he has going for him are the excellent performances of the California shippers so far. On his best day he is a formidable opponent and we’ll see how he stacks up against the top Florida-based 3-year-olds. And his “1” Thoro-Graph number in the Southwest equaled Greatest Honour’s fastest number. He is a seasoned veteran with eight career starts who has been ridden by five different jockeys and has never been off the board. He showed a totally new dimension in the Southwest and looked like a serious threat to Essential Quality turning for home after having to come from last following his awkward start. Baffert rarely ships to Florida, so when he does you have to take him seriously.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
ROMBAUER – They had been putting off announcing his next start, but after working five furlongs in :59 1/5 and the defection of Life is Good he will now go in the Santa Anita Derby. You can expect him to be closing late, but he needs to put himself in contention earlier to give him a legitimate shot to win. This isn’t the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate against lesser rivals. But if the pace is contentious and honest enough he definitely has a shot, as do most of the horses in this field, which has no real standout anymore.
DREAM SHAKE – Now, if you’re looking for fast workouts how about his sizzling five furlongs in a bullet :58 1/5 in company, fastest of 75 works at the distance. With his two-turn debut in the San Felipe out of the way and a decent third-place finish behind runaway winner Life is Good, there is no reason why we won’t see a big performance in the now very wide-open Santa Anita Derby. We still have no idea how good this horse is.
PREVALENCE – It wasn’t a good week for Thoro-Graph figures, as he actually regressed from his career debut from a “3 1/4″ to a “5 1/2,” which does not bode well for him being competitive enough in the Arkansas Derby or wherever he attempts to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby, unless he makes a big turnaround. With Proxy’s disappointing effort in the Louisiana Derby, it seems more likely now they will pursue the Derby.
KEEPMEINMIND – There was some concern about hs Thoro-Graph figure in his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, in which he earned only a so-so “6” following his “5 3/4″ in the his third-place finish in the BC Juvenile. So, here he is finally making his 3-year-old debut following two postponements and missing 16 days of training. Although he finished a disappointing sixth, beaten eight lengths, in the Rebel Stakes, he actually earned the same “6” he got winning a Grade 2 stakes. That isn’t that far off Concert Tour’s winning number, so if you believe Concert Tour can improve several points in the Arkansas Derby, why can’t Keepmeinmind, who certainly had a reason to come up short in this race? But the bottom line is he needs to get faster.
THE GREAT ONE – It has been decided to give him more time between races, so the original plan of going to the Florida Derby has been scrapped and he will now point for the Santa Anita Derby. With a Thoro-Graph regression from a “1” to a “7 1/4,” after a huge “bounce” he is another who needs to make a pretty dramatic turnaround and improve at least four or five points. His connections have no clue why he ran so poorly in the San Felipe. His blood was good after the race and he looks great physically, so they are just hoping he had a bad day. He worked a half in :49 1/5 breaking off behind a workmate. He finished up strong under no urging at all and galloped out even stronger.
SOUP AND SANDWICH – Watching his first two races I have no doubt this is a talented colt with a bright future. The big question jumping up in the Florida Derby is whether he has matured enough to make his presence felt considering how green he’s been. He’s been able to win in spite of it, but against far weaker competition than he’s going to face on Saturday. He had a nice half-mile tuneup in :48 2/5 and we’ll just have to see how much progress he’s made.
HIDDEN STASH – He went an easy five furlongs in 1:04 at Payson Park and could show up next in the Blue Grass Stakes. As I’ve mentioned, his second in the Tampa Bay Derby can be excused after he ran off before the race throwing his head wildly, which has been attributed to his reaction to a female lead pony. Now that we know he can change leads, we’ll just see how he does wherever he runs.
O BESOS – He is improving at the right time and made big run up the rail to get third in the Louisiana Derby, but by just missing to catch Midnight Bourbon for second he may have cost himself a spot in the Derby. He does have 25 points so all is not lost. It all depends on how things play out from here.
PROXY – It’s not that he ran poorly in the Louisiana Derby, he just didn’t perform up to expectations, especially with blinkers added. Yes. He did get squeezed at the start and was taken out of his game plan, and then rallied wide at the top of the stretch, but at that point you had to feel he should have at least been able to finish in the money. However, he had little punch in the stretch, so now I don’t know here he stands.
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MANDALOUN – As successful as Brad Cox has been it hasn’t been a good two weeks on the Derby front with the inexplicably poor efforts from Caddo River and now Mandaloun, who had no apparent excuse and just called it quits at the top of the stretch after tracking the leaders in third. We’ll just have to see if we learn any more about both horses.
PARNELLI – He’s been totally forgotten after two bad efforts, but don’t ignore him in the Santa Anita Derby. He is a horse I once had high hopes for and was prepared to rank him very high on the Derby Rankings. In his second and third starts at one mile he was beaten a neck each time, first by Hot Rod Charlie and then by Spielberg. In his third start, again at a mile, he looked fantastic winning off by almost six lengths under a hand ride. But then in the Sham Stakes and Robert B. Lewis Stakes he was beaten badly each time. John Shirreffs gave him time off and put blinkers on in the morning and the colt has looked sensational, working five furlongs in :59 4/5 and 1:00 2/5, and on Thursday worked seven furlongs in a powerful 1:26, in which Shirreffs said the rider was blowing a lot harder than Parnelli. This is a horse who has shown a tendency to get intimidated down on the rail and in the Lewis he was tight quarters between horses and was forced to steady, then tried to rally along the rail, but quickly called it a day. If the blinkers help in the Santa Anita Derby and if he can get to the outside this could be a wake-up race for him. The talent is there.
BROOKLYN STRONG – He hasn’t even run this year after several setbacks, but he is at least extremely sharp right now, working five furlongs in a bullet :59 3/5, fastest of 16 works at the distance. Debuting in the Wood Memorial is asking a lot, but they obviously want to get in the Derby so they’ll take a shot. At least he’s a Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles.
MOONLITE STRIKE – I’m not sure how far he wants to go, but he ran an excellent third in the Tampa Bay Derby at 34-1 and is coming off a pair of sharp half-mile works in a bullet :47 2/5, fastest of 87 works at the distance, and :47 3/5. With Saffie Joseph running Collaborate in the Florida Derby he could show up in the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby.
In other works of note, HIGHLY MOTIVATED drilled a sharp half in :48, fourth fastest of 156 works at the distance. The puzzling and frustrating SITTIN ON GO, whose career has taken a major plunge since winning the Iroquois Stakes, worked a half in a bullet :59 1/5 at Gulfstream, making him even more puzzling. His stablemate SMILEY SOBOTKA, another disappointment this year, worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5. You know Dale Romans is going to keep persevering with both of them.
Here is the way the Wood is shaping up: Weyburn, Risk Taking, Crowded Trade, Roman Centurian, Nicky the Vest. Dynamic One, Overtook, and Brooklyn Strong. Possible starter is Prevalence. This is a fascinating group, as six of these horses have been ranked, so something has to give.
Meet Steve Haskin virtually this upcoming weekend and participate in his informative Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby Rankings Preview as part of the festivities during the March 27, Secretariat Birthday Celebration
I’m still on GH’s bandwagon. It was one bad race and it’s not like he finished at the back of the pack.
Been and still on his bandwagon.
Love Shug, hope it happens for him…
He’s a class act!
Love Shug, hope it happens for him…..
I’m on the Greatest Honour Belmont band wagon, ‘cause the Derby is a derby.
Not worried about his FL Derby performance, as he finished without being extended. It’s a prep race.
Top Eight in Order for Derby Top Four and one of these will win. Most likely is one of top two.
1. Essential Quality
2. O Besos
3. Caddo River
4. Greatest Honour
5. Soup and Sandwich
6. Highly Motivated
7. Know Agenda
8. Crowded Trade
Of your top 2, Porgy (if that really IS your name) I’d go with Essential Quality. But everything has been tossed up in the air like salad greens. Can’t wait to see what surprises the next two weekends hold.
Essential Quality is the only one on my list or anyone’s list I feel sure of. The rest is guessing. Caddo River might be a stretch but he had a bad ride last time. Probably a need the lead but you can’t fight him the way the jockey did. If he wont relax after a very brief try you have to let him go. If the leader is too fast and he burns himself out then so be it but he if he can’t relax rating let him go for it. He will relax if he gets the lead or even in trying to get the lead but holding him back takes energy from him and upsets him. One thing to do feel good about, all on my list have a lot of talent. We will see some new top contenders in the next few weeks, and Essential Quality cementing the number one spot. If O Besos gets in, he is top four unless he gets in too much trouble. Looking forward to seeing Crowded Trade, Highly Motivated and Caddo and EQ in their nest race. Should be exciting and hopefully safe for all. Could be many surprises of horses under the radar in the next few weeks. Just hoping they don’t knock O Besos out of the top twenty. And hoping a few ahead of him drop out that just aren’t good enough for the Derby.
I really liked Crowded Trade’s Gotham race but why is he listed on HRN as going straight to the Ky Derby. He needs more points somewhere. Have they given up on him?
My top 4 picks in no particular order:
GH, Medina Spirit, Concert Tour, and The Great One… 3 west coast horses since I believe that crop out there is very strong.
Last week, I suggested in looking out for Medina Spirit. His work today emphasized that notion today… wow.
Steve, take a break from writing tomorrow’s Rankings and look at Rock Your World’s workout this morning. I told you! Ha ha!
And Nicky the Vest is smokin’ for Jonathan Thomas.
WHY ARE YOU IMPRESSED?………he is not a great worker….he was asked ……not saying he is bad, its just that he is not a great worker….
Did I say anything about being “impressed”? You don’t know the context. Steve said that he thought RYW’s final drill would be a maintenance work. Entiende?
Why do you not ever give ANYONE a thumbs up?
I’ve seen it. His last work didnt thrill me but watching today’s bullet blaster, thats him. He obviously needs and thrives on hard works. What a powerful stride. Im liking my No 7 ranking, but may do something different this week.
Shake it up!
So many great comments on Florida Derby, I haven’t had time to read them all. I am looking forward to your next Dozen post. I thought Soup and Sandwich did a credible job, especially considering that he was bumped or squeezed about five times during the race yet he kept driving on.
Rock Your World opened at 50-1, in Futures Pool #5, and has dropped to 28-1. Yesterday, I used some of my winnings from the superfecta I cashed for the Florida Derby ($808,80) to place a C-Note on RYW’s nose. In addition, I boxed him in a $2.00 exacta with ALL underneath. I believe RYW could surprise in the Santa Anita Derby, and move on to the KD. If he can replicate his turf form, on dirt, he could spring the upset. With Life is Good out of the race, I consider it wide open.
Good luck. I’ll put him in my exacta. Weyburn looks enticing at 35-1 for J.Jerkens. I have to bet a sawbuck, ran out of C-notes
Hey DES
Did you notice Rock Your World worked a bullet 5 furlongs, in 59.20, 1/76, (today, 3-28) at Santa Anita. It appears John Sadler has him primed for a big effort in the SA Derby.
Futures Pool #5 just closed. The final odds on Weyburn (#23) were 35-1, and Rock Your World (#21) closed at 31-1.
Exacta payouts on those two are as follows;
21/23= $3,034.00
23/21= $4,145.00
Good luck DES
I played the 23 to win and boxed 21/24 and 23/24 but not 21/23. Wish I bet two more bucks. Can’t wait for SA Derby.
I wish I have these people’s money to splurge on bets.
there’s a certain big red horse, birthday was yesterday….his final Derby prep was a well beaten 3rd…
There’s a family legend that one of my great grandfathers was struck twice by lightning…and not during the same storm. 😉
Just saw that Shug is thinking of adding blinkers on GH, at least for workouts and possibly in the Derby if the horse likes them. Is this the kiss of death for his chances?
There is nothing I dislike more than an equipment change for the Derby. That is a panic move. Geez, the horse lost one race. This is not a catastrophe. Just sharpen him up in the morning with blinkers if you want but not for the Derby. But Shug knows a lot more than I do.
Wasn’t it Chad Brown a few years ago who went back and forth in the week before the Derby trying to decide on whether to add blinkers for Practical Joke? At the end he didn’t, but just the discussion of it kept me from betting PJ. This century, the record is awful for blinkers off/on changes in the Derby.
He can still run third in the Derby and win the rest of the Triple Crown — just like Damascus!
I’m pretty sure Mandella works all of his horses in blinkers….
Like the field in the future wager. It’s 7-1 now but probably will be closer to even money tonight. You get the UAE, Ruby Steak and FLA Derby winners and you might get the winners of the Wood, Arkansas Derby, SA Derby,Blue Grass, Lexington and anyone else. Future bet doesn’t allow you to exacta box the field with the field for some reason.
This will be the best field bet in a long time.
9-2 and falling.
Trying to recall Derby winners that were part of the final FW “field.” Country House’s gift win was one, I think. Obviously, Mine That Bird was another. Any others?
Look….when a horse wins a Derby prep everyone gets excited, and when a horse throws a dud everyone gets off his bandwagon….Greatest Honour had already got his Derby points, he ran a dull 3rd yesterday, I get it….but the two who finished in front of him HAD to finish in front of him to qualify, if you want to get off Greatest Honour’s wagon be my guest! Unbridled was a big horse that threw in clunkers, in between winning the Derby and Classic, deep closers do that…again….he didn’t need to win…..
There aren’t many deep closers who run big every time! Forego…Cougar II…..Unbridled….all got beat by 5 lengths IN THEIR PRIME….
I’m an old Victory Gallop fan myself.
You will see tomoow we are on the same wave length
Steve…
You had me at Finalista!
Didn’t catch the Moss-Bailey show but Greatest Honour simply couldn’t accelerate with Known Agenda as they approached the final turn. Looked like a typical Tapit grinder unable to pick it up when needed. With a 20 horse Derby field a horse with only average turn time is in very deep water. Brings to mind from long ago how Easy Goer couldn’t match the brilliant acceleration of Sunday Silence so lost 3 of 4 meetings.
Losing yesterday isn’t end of the world for GH- considering he bad ride he received. Some are so fickle they jump off if a horse won ten in a row and lose the 11th. Unreal!
Not a hater……but his #1 horse ran bad…..the 3rd fav won……who he had 4th?…….
How do you get congrats for that?
Yes…..the fav had a tough trip…..just like last time…….but why would he come up empty in stretch……?
It doesnt really make sense……he should have had alot of horse…….excuse is weak
It was the Brothers Ortiz Show. GH was not given a chance at any part of the race.
Steve gets credit for seeing the quality and potential of a horse that literally nobody else saw. The duo at the DRF Derby Watch didn’t even have KA in their list of 20. Only one of the six “experts” at the KD site even mentioned KA in their Top 10s, and that one had KA at #10.
As for GH having nothing in the stretch, I said that here right after the race. So you agree with me. 😮
How long have you been in racing? You sound like you know nothing but your silly Beyer numbers and what is right before your eyes. Think a little.Read my Rankings tomorrow and hopefully you will learn something. Meanwhile it is almost april and no one has a clue who you actually do like. Step out of the shadows for a change and brighten the world with your intelligence. You dont have to be afraid to be wrong. We will forgive you and still recognize your genius,
I’m not a numbers player……you really don’t know how good i am?…..After all these years?……why not say what i said was wrong?……..the race was very very weak. The weakest i have ever seen for a fl derby……i am right. The division is weak….very weak…..i was going to bet future bet this weekend, but decided to wait for race…..
Everyone keeps thinking i go on beyers…….because i know they are the most accepted fig…..this is why we discuss them….timeform and beyers are usually in line….
I am a handicapper…..no future in this pool means i wait until all info is listed……right now, it looks very easy……too easy….but i’m deciding to wait
Every year some whine about “weak fields” for Derby. Same old tune!
You should have seen how GH’s jockey, JO, used him up to get behind KA only to pull him up when they get too close. What do you think he was doing? He did not give GH a chance to win.
Steve, been out most of the day so I’m a little late with this, but want to congratulate you on your very early support for Known Agenda, great call Mr. Haskin!! You must have been shouting pretty loud as he stormed down the stretch!
And I’m with most of you on the really bad analysis from Bailey and Moss, GH had a bad trip and did well to finish 3rd. I’d like to think they’ll still head to the Derby off that effort?
Thank you again for your time that you spend with all of us!
Thank you very much, Bruce. They definitely will go to the Derby with GH. Horses do lose and better now than in 5 weeks.
The jockey of GH was busy rooting for his big bro that he did not bother to swing GH to the outside in the stretch for GH’s patented turn of foot and finishing kick. GH should have a change of jockeys for the KD.
Didn’t allow GH a realistic shot, terrible ride.
heard the beyer was 94……….just not really that great……but go ahead…….
Isn’t Spielberg still running?
Dont you know why his Beyer was 94? Because he gave him a ridiculous 82 last time, and based onS oup and Sandwich he couldnt move him higher. Save up your money and get Thoro-Graph if you want true speed figures
This race had slow horses……94 is right………you think its higher?…..how?…….
You should listen to the guy who said he doesn’t go on numbers. Oh…wait…that was YOU.
no…….you assume they use that projection method always……they dont…….if the number doesnt seem right, then they look at that………..you should know this
Who the heck is left?……has there ever been this many contenders disappoint?…in 2 weeks?…….
I remember back in 1936. They were dropping like flies. 😉
It’s “hidden”……
Sorry to have missed your seminar, Steve. (Was busy sanding woodwork in my kitchen, which is getting a makeover. Seminar might have been more profitable!) Love the results of the Florida Derby, even though Greatest Honour only finished third. Known Agenda has definitely proved he’s legit to me — he’s moved up to 2nd on my list — and I was thrilled that Soup and Sandwich ran so well. Reminds me a bit of Alphabet Soup, who won my heart when I met him three years ago at Old Friends. And I was quite impressed with Jeff Ruby winner Like the King. Although his dam’s best race was on the turf, he has strong dirt influence in his pedigree. He looks a lot more like a Derby horse than Rebel’s Romance.
Looking forward to Monday’s Derby 12, 16, or 20!
Wish you could have been there, but how can I compete with sanding woodwork? Lol
You stayed the course with Known Agenda. On to Louisville and the roses. Now we know this colt’s agenda—dig in and win! I’m over the moon.
Awwright! He’s da man, now.
Ok Steve you were finally vindicated with Known Agenda’s big win. I didn’t get the bomber in the tri and super but with a huge overlay at 5-1 I’ll take it. In a relatively rare agreement with Andy Serling who also liked KA I agreed that the 82 Beyer for KA in his last was bogus and should have been upgraded as was done with Greatest Honour. Also I had trouble with a Thorograph 1 for GH and I think he was exposed in this race. At this point we’re down to a Big 3 and GH is not one of them.
KA’s Brisnet rating in the allowance race was 94, which makes sense. BSFs are unreliable.
Not end of world for GH, he will be on come Derby day.
He needs the 5 weeks after all these two turn racees. He needs to be sharpened up
Andy Serling admitted that the last Kentucky Derby winner he picked was Silver Charm. One swallow does not a summer make, be warned.
I thoroughly enjoyed your seminar today , Steve! I will mull it even more over my pasta dinner tonight with Rao’s homemade marinara sauce. Greatest Honour’s trip—not so good. I thought that Soup and Sandwich did very well, and he looked like a million in the paddock, but Known Agenda had his measure.
Mmmm, the best jarred marinara sauce on the planet. Great to have you there today. Thanks for coming. Soup nd Sandwich is still green and still running great. What a future he has when gets his act together.
Saw you flashing the Rao’s sauce. Funny, we had that for dinner Friday night. Always our go to, since we lived many years on Long Island, but never ate at Rao’s in upper east side of the city.
Good to see your support of The Meadow also!
Pletcher did an uncharacteristic training maneuver (bringing KA back 20 days off an allowance win) and it paid dividends. Horse proved he can run with the big boys and now can rest till the first Saturday in May. Professional horse, professional jockey, professional trainer = Kentucky Derby winner!!!
I love Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey and Known Agenda was best today but to say GH had no excuses and may not even go to Kentucky is Crazy talk. He was boxed in most of the race and never looked comfortable. He is still a threat in the Derby in IMHO.
They said he had NO excuse? He obviously had a rough trip. But an odds-on standout shouldn’t run that poorly.
I’ve found the mute button the best asset when watching horse racing. Richard Migliore being the acceptation. Even the most naive, neophyte could see that Greatest Honour was in trouble, position wise, early on. Television commentators believe they have till fill every space. Laugh it off.
Absurd remarks
Agreed!
Steve, I had to be at an outdoor event this afternoon but wasn’t going to miss your Derby forum. So I installed Zoom on my phone. Yikes…did I have trouble. But I was able to see and hear you for at least ¾ of the forum. I was the one who asked the chat question (through Leonard) about how you saw the pace set-up of the Florida Derby. I thoroughly enjoyed your entire commentary.
You spoke as highly of Known Agenda as you did of Greatest Honour. No surprise there. You’ve been high on KA for quite some time. I hope you had some cash on him to win. GH is the next in a seemingly long line of disappointments this year. I was surprised to see Ortiz take him inside. The colt has run so well on the outside during his win streak.
The question now is : Will Shug enter Greatest Honour into the Derby?
Hope the horse is in good health after his subpar performance today…
He brought Code of Honor after a similar Fla Derby finish, which followed a FOY win. If the colt comes out of this race okay, I think he’ll go to Louisville.
The question now, is, will Jose Ortiz keep the mount in the Kentucky Derby? Lol.
Thanks for joining Eddie. as to all your points I had a nice exacta on KA and GH…oops. GH got an atrocious ride and had no business being down on the rail that far back. The comments on TV about this race and especially GH having no excuse any may not go in the Derby has inspired me to watch TVG the rest of the year. Lunacy. KA finally showed what I knew he had in him. Thanks CD for not giving me an opportunity to bet on him in the FW. He has unique pedigree to sie for and is such a pleasure to watch run with that action. Thats all I’m revealing for now. Say tuned on Monday. Oh, when Collborate couldnt get near the lead and was 4 wide into the turn he was done.
Ha ha Steve, made me laugh re: TVG and yes, the ride on Greatest Honour stank.
My pleasure! Hope you have another forum soon. Known Agenda ran the final eighth in 12 4/5 sec. That sets him up nicely for Churchill. The chart says Soup and Sandwich didn’t change leads in the stretch. I don’t have the eye to see that in real time. S&S could be a factor in the Derby.
Better still, last 3/8 in :36 4/5. that is racehorse time. S&S did not change leads again. He keeps doing things wrong and keeps running huge, Once he gets his act together he is going to be something.
The ‘long line of disappointments’ was Jose Ortiz’s ride. Sometimes. his decisions in a race seem imbecilic.
Still, when GW was clear, he didn’t have his usual punch. But I’m hoping he gets a better ride in the Derby cuz I have that FW at 40-1.
Mike Welsch, didn’t think Greatest Honour was training as well as he was before the Fountain of Youth so a lesser performance was not unexpected. Greatest Honour has never been as professional as, say, Essential Quality so a good trip is always a prerequisite.
Essential Quality has the ideal running style for the “modern” Derby.
Exactly, depending on his run in the Blue Grass Stakes, Essential Quality is the one to beat.
It’s looking that way. And he’s just about the only horse I DIDN’T bet in the future wager. 🙂
Ha ha The Kentucky Derby is a bit like the Melbourne Cup, you can bet on every horse and still win out.
GH, not GW
My friend just left GP and said he final saw Collaborate finish the race…
My fear with GH is coming to fruition, unfortunately. He might be too slow, I mean not even running down the Soup for second is not good at all…. also, his preparations with only 4f workouts concerns me.
Too many long races. they duiled him. That is why trainers ued to always drop their horse in a sprint to start the year to get them sharp. He did run back to back “1” T-Graph numbers which I liked but I’m afraid he is going to regress several points off that.
He’s run in every calendar month since September. That can’t help.
The conversation, surrounding Greatest Honour, originally was either the Fountain of Youth or the Florida Derby but not both. Perhaps, because they’re not on race=day lasix the recovery will be quicker. All is not lost though, the next race is at Churchill Downs.
Good points on GH, thanks! Shug needs to lean on GH in the mornings prior to KD, I would like to see some bullet drill(s). No lasiks dull GH or not is a good question.
Don’t worry about Shug McGaughey, he is a master trainer. Orb, was magnificent prior to the Derby. Greatest Honour needs an outside post in the Derby, being such a large colt the inside is a death trap it stifles the entire mechanics.
Terrible, first he takes him 4 wide into the first turn and then shoots to the rail for no reason. And then makes a premature move only to run into a wall of horses.
That’s for sure! Mr. Haskin, do you think GH will still go to the Derby? I’m of opinion he will.
I too, was wondering why the inside route…HE QUALIFIED ALREADY, just relax and finish, and get ready for the Derby!
It’s not as though it was a claiming race, when ‘adventures’ are forgiven. You were just dumbfounded on what Ortiz was trying to do.
Congrats to Steve are in order for his conviction about Known Agenda … his good eye for talent is proven again.
all the guessing is over now !
The son of Curlin looked very powerful today and should be equally effective at a mile and a quarter.
Yes he did win. Thought Soup and Sandwich did quite well. GH got boxed in and never recovered. So now wait and see who goes on. Can’t wait to hear what Steve writes next.
It was the CURLIN Florida Derby indeed!
Thank you very much, Nelson. And he will be more effective at 1 1/4 miles.
UAE Derby is a fantastic and very contentious and intruiging race. Looking forward to it. You never know what is going to come of this race…so many possibilities regarding the Derby…and Oaks.
Well … the gelding REBEL’S ROMANCE just took the UAE Derby in a respectable 1: 56.28 … It will be another Godolphin’s horse with a Kentucky Derby ticket …
Not sure if runner-up Panadol (with 40 points) would come to help the pace in Kentucky…
Exciting afternoon ahead …!
Well, Nelson, Godolphin have the option. Imagine, 4 runners in the Derby a race they want to win. Anything can happen in a race.
I am so HAPPY that we’ve come to the first of the meaningful Derby preps: The Florida Derby.
I will PASS OVER the steaks stakes and the race in Dubai.
I didnt know you were Jewish. Happy Pesach.
The better half. 🙂
Thanks! My better half. 🙂
Eddie Fannucci and Eddie Finklestein?
LOL!
Steve, what was O Besos Thoro-Graph number in LA Derby? Also, am I the only one interested in the Jeff Ruby Steaks race? Love Tarantino in there. Intrigued by Moonlite Strike and Hard Rye Guy too. Thoughts?
He got a career and race high 2 3/4. The Jeff Ruby came up a much better race than I thought it would, Lots of good dirt horses just looking for the points, which makes it very competitive. If they win you know they can handle the dirt.
I’m thinking about Hard Rye Guy in the Jeff Ruby. Thoughts?
I may be mistaken, but this year’s crop of 3-year-olds seems to be the most confusing to me in recent memory. Perhaps that’s just a product of the times, but there usually is a pretty clear-cut leader or at least top three. The one horse who really struck me as unusual really shouldn’t be pointed for the Derby due to lack of experience. Of course, when Derby fever hits, what’s best for the horse isn’t always the first consideration.
You are not mistaken, but that doesnt apply to the Top 3 who are very good horses. Nothing confusing about them. You made reference to one horse and didnt say who it is
Steve, you’ve written about the horses that will not have gone two turns until their final prep. Two questions in that regard:
Is Maximum Security the only horse to finish first in the KD (in modern times, at least) immediately after a debut two-turn race?
What separates NICKY THE VEST (#13) from Weyburn (#8) and Collaborate (#9) in the rankings based on the two-turn factor? (You said that Nicky would be rated higher but for the lack of a two-turn race.)
Could be I’ll have to check on that.
I said Nicky would be ranked higher because Weyburn has proven his class and Colloaborate could be special and has the look of a long distance horse so Nicky might have more to prove being he has never faced open company and I would have preferred to see him at two turns already.
Got it! I’d probably rank Nicky ahead of Collaborate because I’m not very astute in assessing the potential of unproven talent.
Nyquist seems secure as a freshman sire at Darley… and having crossed with a dam line of distance blood his 3yo colt Gretzky the Great still shows the same kind of racing pace as himself. Although Gretzky the Great is a younger colt compared to his peers and a Canadian bred to boot, his handlers gave him a nice warm Winter break in Ocala that has no doubt supported his physical development. He ran well to form as the favorite in his first prep of the year at TP so far. So now we’ll see if he can tap into that genetic potential on his distaff side and get the mile and an eighth on Saturday. I suspect he can. If not he could find a place in the American Turf Stakes on the Derby under card making his third start of the year.
Mr. Haskin, as always your articles are thought provoking. Hoping Cox’s two horses get back to winning. Do you have any updates on CR?
Thanks Mike, great to see you again. As fas as I know the plan is still the Arkansas Derby. He obviouly has to be ridden differently
Agreed! Ride was terrible,comprised his chances for sure. Also like Parnelli a great deal. Trained by one of my favorite trainers. Also, plan to visit one of your favorite horses-Invasor when he returns. Talked to Kent last fall. Several years since visited with him.
Oh please give him a carrot for me and tell him I mss him
Yes, I will. Visited CA Chrome three years ago with private showing,his handler,Liam very generous with his time. To be honest,haven’t seen as many great horses as you,but same impression when meeting Chrome and Cigar for the first time-cold chills. Chrome,Zenyatta,Cigar my all time favs. Flew to Reno last Nov and had dinner with the Coburns. A great evening and interesting conversation. For me, a home run!
Hey Mike, welcome back
Hey! Thanks! Always your comments.
Rather, always enjoyed your comments.
Here is a twist to ponder. Hot Rod Charlie got the fourth fastest Thoro-Graph figure in the La. Derby.
And his Late Pace number (90) was well below par.
The late-pace figure is a big deal in the Ky Derby. Remember Firing Line. His late pace number in the Sunland Derby was sneaky good and everyone overlooked him. )Well, almost everyone.)
That begs the question: which horse got the best Thoro-Graph number?
How about O Besos
Wow. He’s the last horse I would have expected, but I’m starting to think he’s sneaky good.
He was the only runner to gain on Charlie in the stretch. He caught a much faster early pace in the La Derby than in the Risen Star.
Steve I see the Fla Derby as a dogfight between Greatest Honour and Known Agenda much like their Aqueduct encounter. Hoping to get a bomber or two underneath as I’m against the chances of Collaborate, Spielberg, and Soup. Any thoughts on who a bomber might be?
you didnt leave much. Going by Thoro-Graph Papitu should be competitve at least
Papetu, could sneak into the Derby with another placing the cot always tries.
Does anyone know what the beyer number for Hot Rod Charlie was?
I believe it was 99
Thank you Steve for the beyer info and thank you for the fine work you do covering racing!
Yes … as Steve said… HRC was assigned 99 Beyer… with Life is Good out he became the new leader in that fickle table for the preps so far.
Then you have Mandaloun with 98 Beyer in the Risen Star, Elusive Quality (96), Weyburn (95) and Concert Tour (94).
For the Visual Sense Index (VSI) ranking you should ask Steve though…
They should ban 99 Beyer numbers. Give a 100 or a 98.
BSFs are garbage. (That’s for Pro Vet).
Ban all odd numbers!
Eddie,pretty much agree. Remembering Jack Van Berg stated “time doesn’t matter,unless you’re doing it”.
Well, there is no shortage of top class racing this weekend. The excitement starts in soggy Sydney with the Golden Slipper festival, followed by the arid Dubai World Cup carnival, ending with the humid Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park. Not to forget Turfway Park, who is sandwiched in the middle with the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Some of us will be very bug-eyed.
Week 10 of the Derby Rankings may be the last time we read about some of these colts who are on the fringe. Conversely, others will cement their place for the big dance in May. There is always the Preakness Stakes for those who just miss the cut. Even so, how the Turfway prep can be equal in points with the Florida Derby is beyond me. Meanwhile, the UAE Derby is a marketing exercise well worth the outlay.
Greatest Honour’s return in the Florida Derby is highly anticipated, a win is not essential but the Grade 1 win ensures the future. In Dubai, Ambivalent, Panadol, and Mouheeb have their chance in the UAE Derby. As for the Ruby Steaks, pass.
Great work Steve, thanks again. Things are heating up now. Sizzle.
I was expecting you to say, “overcooked Jeff Ruby Steaks”. 🙂
Re: UAE Derby. As ridiculous as the Ruby in awarding 170 Derby points. No…MORE ridiculous!
I was thinking more of carnivorous theme or, conversely, anaemic etc lol. The UAE Derby plays into attracting big spenders to Saratoga/Keeneland so there’s always positives in that race.
Jeff Ruby Steaks….reminds me of the Marx Bros movie, where Chico and Harpo are eating Groucho’s steak so fast he says “this looks like a steak race”!
Besides the humerious appeal of the title there is not much on offer from the Jeff Ruby Steaks. To think that the race may ensure 2 runners a place in the Derby field is just wrong.
Steve’s generous coverage of Parnelli prompted me to watch all his races. And yes … we have to agree that his 2-year-old campaign earned him the badge of top Derby prospect.
His first five stars were so convincing that he was the (5 to 2) second favorite in the Sham; but, as Steve stated, he was no factor either in that 3-year-old-debut or in the Bob Lewis Stakes … not sure if he had legit excuses for those subpar runs but if the son of Quality Road is entered in the Santa Anita Derby one should assume that Shirreffs is confident about him redeeming himself…!
Parnelli brings the old discussion around horses rebounding in the Trail. Perhaps the blinkers will wake him up in the Santa Anita Derby especially considering that his last six workouts are far superior than those before the Sham.
If Medina Spirit and/or Dream Shake suffer a hiccup in the last California prep I could see Parnelli picking up the slack … Nothing better than cooking a long shot before anyone else … !
Weyburn II ?
This horse has the goods,also has the right trainer.
Spielberg will be a key horse in the Florida Derby to weigh (confirm) not only the substance of the California based horses but also to get an idea of how good Essential Quality was in the Southwest.
The son of Union Rags will be the toughest challenger for Greatest Honour who, at this point, is undeniably the “beast of the East” …
Hot Rod Charlie has already proven that the kind California weather helps horses train steadily and keep them in tiptop shape during the months leading to the Derby…
Spielberg got his substantial Stakes experience as a salient advantage against all his competitors in Florida and Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano may help his case as well.
Many people may recall Game on Dude running in the Florida Derby only 3 weeks after his maiden win in his third start at Gulfstream Park. The son of Awesome Again finished 7th in his first Stakes experience while trained by Michael Mareina.
The son of Awesome Again was handed over to Bob Baffert after the Florida Derby. So, the Million-Dollar-horse, Spielberg, will be the first Baffert’s horse running in the Florida Derby. You don’t ship your horse 2,900 miles unless you have assessed the competition really well… or you have too many prospects filling the other qualifying races…!
Whatever the reason, it is really enticing to have a “rehearsal” of the always fascinating West vs. East showdown before the Derby.
Ah, but it was First Dude who bested Game on Dude in the Florida Derby and, when also handed over to Bob Baffert bested Game on Dude in the Hollywood Gold Cup in his last race. Earlier, Game on Dude had defeated First Dude in the Santa Anita Handicap. Dude, Dude and Bob Baffert. Memories.
I can’t see Spielberg upsetting Greatest Honour, no matter what ‘secret weapon’ they throw at him. Lol. No love for the UAE Derby?
You may be right about Spielberg however I opine that Greatest Honour has not faced anything close to the quality of this new challenger…
Regarding the UAE … I don’t dare talking about it because Eddie F starts spitting fire whenever he reads UAE and 100 points…
Joking aside, I feel that it will be an excellent race to bet. I plan on betting Panadol, France Go De Ina, Mouheeb with longshots New Treasure, Rebel’s Romance and Speight’spercomete underneath….
I will learn more about the fillies tomorrow though…
UAE DERBY????????
[fire emoji here]
Shug McGaughey seems so calm it’s making me nervous. I watched Roberto defeat Brigadier Gerard so nothing is ever certain. Good luck.
The Bigadier got Americanized. Galbreath called for Baeza and he just beat him with speed on the front end and set a new course record.
Baeza must have the best record of a jockey ever to ride in England. Unbeaten, Group 1 win while defeating a living legend. Mind you, the next day Baeza was back in the US and was beaten by a US living legend. Guess who? Ha ha
I haven’t said anything approaching this about the previous Derby preps: The favorite will ROMP!
But the battle-tested Spielberg will receive an Oscar for Best Supporting Runner.
The only way it would be 2,900 air miles is if they detoured to Chicago for deep dish pizza.
Spielberg wasn’t besting GH anyhow! Also,post 10 doesn’t aid his cause. GH race to lose.
Steve, saw a writer post a Derby Dozen on another racing website…heresy! You’e the original Derby Dozen, but I love the Sweet Sixteen format. The more we hear from you, the better! And I love that some of the regulars followed you over. I’m high on Known Agenda, hoping for a big run from him in the FL Derby, but then I never met a Curlin that I didn’t love… Thanks for staying in the game & keeping us informed.
Thank you i appreciate it.
Steve, Do we have any “mid-atlantic” connections this year for the Derby?
Not hat I’m aware of. I’ll have to check. There were a couple of horses from Parx.
In my opinion, Caddo River was going to lose regardless of riding tactics. If CR was hell bent in getting the lead, CT would have just stalked and passed CR easily… CR also did not respond to the pressure and in fact couldn’t run a straight line in the stretch almost like climbing stairs. Just not good in my view….
CR was disappointing,but I’m of mindset sometimes one must draw a line through a race. Horse has talent.
Greatest Honour drew post 7 in a field of 11. We know most of horses in the field except one, and that is Collaborate, and if there is one freaky type horse in here that could really burst on the scene as a serious Derby contender I believe it is him. He just does thngs a big, scopey long striding horse isnt supposed to do. But you never know until they do it , so we’ll see. I find him intriuiging because he could be special.
You scooped the entire racing press!
What about Soup and Sandwich? Horse is hilarious to watch, but man, looks like he can run big.
Untappaed talent but Thoro-Graph figs very slow
Steve…Where is the Big Lake at??
Hi Blake, Big Lake is injured, off the trail, they announced it just yesterday.
Dang it! It’s always my horse year after year that gets hurt before the Derby!
You’re so funny, I think we all say that at one time or another during the derby trail. It’s a very common thought of mine every year! Frustrating game for sure……but we all love the ride.
I’m not even joking when I say that my top two horses were Life is Good and Big Lake. Obviously LIG was my top choice and BL was my sleeper. Back to the drawing board.
Ouch! Please don’t select Greatest Honour as your new top choice and Nicky the Vest as your sleeper. 😉
Steve, I know that you’re a student of Derby history, so I’d like your thoughts on some trends of the past and present. Can they be reasonably explained?
* From 1980 to 2010, 18 of 31 Derby winners (58%) lost their final prep. Since 2011, every Derby winner (100% 🙂 ) finished first in the final prep.
* After Spectacular Bid’s win in 1979, not a single post-time favorite won the Derby until Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Since 2000, half of the Derby winners were post-time favorites.
* Prior to 2014, Derby winners often rallied from 5 lengths or more behind the leader after a half mile. From 2001 to 2013, five Derby winners made up 16 lengths or more. Since 2014, horses that finished first in the Derby were no more than 4 lengths behind after a half mile.
Look closely…WHO was the best horse….recent winners have been close to the pace…have been best horses, too….
I think a lot of it has to do with how hores ar trained, horses making so few starts as well as the breed changing dramatically to speed. The Derby has become more like just another race, just longer. with the elimination of sprints we no longer have every top horse debuting in a sprint, so many horses who have nothing but two turn races are more dull than they ussed to be leaving the Derby to the naturally fast horses. As far as the training, five of the last nine Derbys have been won by Baffert and Doug O’Neill, two trainers who train old style, not afraid of working their horses long. Now we have so many horses coming into the Derby working all year in :49 and :50 or maybe stretching out to 1:02. Trainers in the past would work 6f, 7f and a mile like nothing. So many horses today are not sharp enough or fit enough to win the Derby, so the best horses (favorites) are winning. Trainers today just train to get there, not to win it.
Forego worked :57 from the gate a week before the Derby….lacked seasoning, also it was a strong field!
Thanks for the detailed reply, Steve. I will try to look more deeply into your theories. On the face of it, they make plenty of sense. I also surmise that you believe the trends aren’t cyclical — that what we’re seeing now is what we (or future generations) will see until the next evolutionary stages in thoroughbred training, breeding, and racing. One thing will never change, though. My horse will always be on the losing end of a photo finish or an inquiry. 🙂
Steve, When ever anybody ever asks me as for the changes of Derby Trail and Derby’s past to present I will just hand them your summation here. Its SPOT ON and in six lines. I feel sad for our younger generations that didn’t get to witness the 70”,80’s90’s. Back than the Derby Trail was a spring love affair now it feels more like a one night stand. The funny thing about is a friend of mine recently passed on at 97 and he saw Seabiscuit, War Admiral, Citation and he felt the the same towards me for missing that time.
I just glad we love this game and these great and noble animals
Arguably, the greatest impact on the Kentucky Derby has been the introduction of the points system, beginning in 2013. No longer were speed crazy runners allowed to scatter the field hither and thither as they were eliminated by the point system.
The race now can be easily controlled by the jockeys as you wrote: “Since 2014, horses that finished first in the Derby were no more than 4 lengths after a half mile.”
Originally, I thought the point system was the perfect system for the Kentucky Derby. Now, the structure of the race is mechanical, with jockeys less willing to dare to do something out of the ordinary – the race is fairly predictable, early on.
But the early fractions of the Points Era aren’t significantly slower than before. The median 1/2-mile time for the 7 years is 46 2/5 sec. The median time for the previous 7 years was 46 1/5, and the same for the 7 years before that.
I think the pace arguments are for naught, any time you get 20 in line to go 10 panels….odds are there will be plenty of pace!
Agreed!
Basically, the ‘true closers’ have been eliminated from winning. Those near the lead throughout the race battle it out, turning from home, on which colt has the better finish.
Again, it’s been less than 10 years, and those close to the pace winners were “best horse”….Chrome, Nyquist, Pharoah, Jusyify, Max were best horses, and Always Dreaming caught a rolled fast surface, and he was the favorite….
AND…..they did make a deep closer the race favorite and what happened? Orb won by 3 lengths.
What happened?…….everyone for YEARS would post to me, that “how can you say a horse has a problem” by watching them run?……..”wouldn’t the trainer know more than you?”………..this was the whole reason i posted these things….I only posted top horses. This list has been amazingly right.
What the?…….now…….everyone and their dog, is saying “we knew LIG had a problem”…..I have taught you all too well……..there was never talk about this in the past…….many horses have done the exact thing….and no one said anything….
What is your professional opinion of Nicky the Vest?
I love his name.
See below. 🙂
Wasn’t he in the movie “Goodfella’s”
Maybe. LOL. But he was a popular bartender at Rao’s Italian restaurant in East Harlem for decades. Got the name because he owned dozens of vests. The colt Nicky the Vest will win the Wood, holding off a charging Risk Taking.
Sounds like you hang out in bars….lol.
I’m a reformed abstainer.
Oh, you’re a charmer.
NEVER LOOKED AT HIM
Life Is Good- Very small chip in left hind ankle (fetlock). So, let’s get down to it. Are you proposing that this (? “brewing”) chip caused your issues with his “mechanics”, or are you suggesting that his mechanics was causative of the chip? I suggest that neither scenario is indeed accurate.
What? You can’t decipher his incoherent rants?
Every time i am right……and there is an excuse…….im saying people now are doing what i do…..they now believe they have learned
You’re one of a kind, PV. 🙂
Would appreciate your replying to my question. Am interested in your analysis.
I wasnt that crazy about Rock Your World’s 6f work in company. But its so hard to know what to make of a work. I will go into more detail on the work next week. I really wanted to love this work, so who knows.
Steve, he’ll probably have a workout on Sunday or Monday to restore your faith. 🙂
After a 6f work in company that will likely be just a maintenance work. Im not saying I dont like him anymore, just reeporting what I saw. I never go just by works
Would it be just a maintenance work if Sadler wasn’t happy with yesterday’s work?
Yes, it his last work after a hard one. And he probably likd tthe work. It’s just me. I didnt hate it. Just was hoping to see a better work to convince me he’ll love the dirt. Im certainly not giving up on him off a work
you are correct……..better hope he is lazy……lol
He’s never looked lazy before but I’ll take it. He was just being pushed way too far out and not responding, but again I dont know the horse that well, so who knows? He was in a full out drive at the wire, rider was doing way too much on him in the stretch
yes……..i totally agree…….then there was a worse tacitus work that caused me to not bet him his 2nd win……..that hurt……not knowing the horse, but i didnt like it either
Hot Rod Charlie earned a 96 Brisnet rating for the La Derby. The last Ky Derby winner not to have a last-race rating of 97 or higher (other than the immortal Mine That Bird) was Sea Hero in 1993. But what’s one point between friends?
Brisnet ratings?……and equibase are garbage……
Steve do you give any consideration to the ride Caddo River was given in the Rebel as a contributing factor in his poor showing? Looked to me that Geroux was strangling him to keep him under wraps. Not surprisingly to me he had nothing when he was asked to run. Don’t know if CR is good enough but I certainly don’t think he was given any chance to run his race in the Rebel. I guess you’ve got to find out if he can race that way but I don’t think you’ll see it tried again. Your thoughts?
It had to contribute to it. As I mentioned after the race I couldnt believe he did what he did. It did expose a weakness in the horse if he cant be rated, but that was simply a bad ride in my opinion
It mattered…….but not THAT much…….and it sometimes happens, but doesnt again……he never showed it before…….but all things considered…..i dont like a bad race……
In my opinion, Caddo River was going to lose regardless of riding tactics. If CR was hell bent in getting the lead, CT would have just stalked and passed CR easily… CR also did not respond to the pressure and in fact couldn’t run a straight line in the stretch almost like climbing stairs. Just not good in my view….
I’m of the contention CR is a very good horse who had an off day. It happens.
Rock Your World is listed at 50-1, in KD Futures Pool #5. If by chance RYW wins the Santa Anita Derby, on April 3rd, he’ll probably be in the single digits on KD day. Get those odds while you can. 🙂
Sssshhhhhhh, Bill, don’t tell anyone…..I like the 50-1, but let’s keep it quiet. 🙂
Too late now Bruce.
The big question, can RTW transfer his exceptional turf form onto dirt? We’ll know soon enough, (4-3).
I really think he will, at least that’s what I’m counting on in the SA Derby. Looking forward to it!!
This is the final opportunity to latch onto something big. Its a gamble for sure, but you never know who is going rise to the top. And 50-1 to me is worth the gamble as you can see by my ranking. Another is Collaborate this weekend. Tough task but you never know.
Another is Dream Shake–50-1 and the SA Derby is a week after futures close–could be prominent from the bell on Apr 3rd, fast works….Network won’t mind having another Eurton and Eurton moment, especially if Britany is co-hosting the race—I think she might be….
Dream Shake was really thrown to the wolves off one maiden sprint and ran quite well. He is deinitely live and vert bettable in the FW
Surface switchers have a terrible record at the top level unless they’re Animal Kingdom. Don’’t bet the house on RYW but at 50-1 it’s worth a small shot. Good luck.
How many AW/turf horses have tried dirt for the first time in the Kentucky Derby? Can’t be too many. And Animal Kingdom did win, so the record is 1 for ___ ?? I wouldn’t bet him in the Derby, but I wouldn’t blame anyone who did at a decent price.
No you dont want to bet big. Its still a guess.
I’m old enough to remember Animal Kingdom in the Spiral Stake at Turfway (now the Jeff Ruby Steaks). AK ran on turf then synthetic and when he got to the KD blew everyone away with a strikingly strong performance. Love some Animal Kingdom! Can Rock The World be the same kind of sleeper? Time will tell.
Rock hasn’t beaten much on turf…full sis She’s Our Charm one of my faves, she can’t get more than 8 furlongs.. .Rock also has a tough time changing leads he is long odds cuz he has to run big in SA Derby first, big “if”…..
Big Lake off the KD Trail with condylar fracture
It doesnt take a lot of time to call or text the trainers just to make sure youre not doing what Churchill did. Now they have a wasted spot. He has had this injury for a while.
Nicky the Vest fans are not happy!
Hello Steve, very surprised that Known Agenda is not a separate betting interest and is part of the Field in KDFW5. I know you are very high on him and the Field odds could really plummet if he pulls the upset in the FLA Derby.
They would rather leave in Caddo River and Mandaloun who finished up the track in their last start. The question is whether Known Agenda’s head in on straight
is there a Dubai horse that is interesting to win Saturday and come over? also will a Japan horse come over , or UK horse? none listed even below the line. wondering
Doug O’Neill is taking a wild stab with Ambivalent, who broke his maiden going 6f in his seventh start. Japan has Pink Kamehameha who won the Saudi Derby. They also have the Will Take Charge colt France Go de Ina who has won his last two. So all in all this isnt much of a Ky. Derby prep
There are two Flatter colts who have won stakes there that could be interesting, Panadol and Mouheeb. Mouheeb won the UAE 2,000 Guineas and Panadol a listed stakes race. Along with Ambivalent, those three appeal the most but who can say? Chance your arm. Ha ha
I think Concert Tour may be my pick, but heart is for Midnight Bourbon. Sure agree with your thoughts about him. Also what a hoot it would be if Nicky the Vest does well. Thanks Steve for all the time you put into Top Derby Picks for the rest of us.
Midnight bourbon is looking more like a derby horse with each effort. Always gets in the money somehow. I think it’s possible that he and Charlie could be competitive against the top tier. We will see.
As I wrote the key is how they use him. If they put him on the lead or make sure he has the lead at the top of the stretch he can win the Derby
I’m wondering………now, with Mike Smith being effectively cut loose by the Life is Good defection, what happens to the jockey situation for Baffert’s horses, and by extension, Hot Rod Charlie?
Joel Rosario rode Concert Tour to an impressive victory in the Rebel,and is now on the current top 3 Derby contenders. However, he was also on Hot Rod Charlie for his breakout win in !Louisiana this past weekend. What is Ron Anderson going to do with that dilemma? from what I hear, Johnny V is giving up Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Day cards to fly out to California and ride Median Spirit in the SA Derby. At least Anderson doesn’t need to worry about him.
And finally, where does Mikey go?
All food for thought. Tough decision for Rosario
Battaglia set the ML for the future wager:
Essential Quality 3-1
Greatest Honour 4-1
Concert Tour 9-2
Hot Rod Charlie 6-1
It’s a long way to the next horses at 20-1: Medina Spirit and Prevalence. Hmmm….Hidden Stash and Big Lake at 50-1. Nice!
Steve, Your the hardest workin man in the Derby Rankings business and it shows with your comprehensive lists each week… When I read them, “I Feel Good”
Thats very kind of you to say. Thank you very much
Couple weeks back I raised the issue that Mandaloun Dosage Index was over 11.
I’m old school & realize times have changed but those still work for me. He quit in upper stretch threw the bit, My Derby is not for colts packing 126 lbs & also an 11 Dosage.
Mr. Cox, why did Mandaloun have nothing after 8f when he had won the 9f Risen Star?
Well, I think it may have been his high Dosage Index.
Tools are tools, whether people believe in them. Dosage, Beyer, Thoro, Rag Sheets, Bris figs, Equibase,etc. According to Beyers, Ghostzapper was the fastest and best horse of the last 20 years. Bris said Arrogate, Steve I am sure would have the lowest Thoro and Bris figs. Hell, as for dosage, Breeders Cup Mile, 1999, was all over Silic who won at 18-1. Dosage had him at like 3-1 in the race, so every tool is different, and people have their beliefs. It is the great part of the game, especially when you love an 8-1 shot and there is a 9-5 shot on the board, but your thinking and tools were correct.
Mandaloun was never in the race….
He was in his spot, just got forced 5 wide early and wide down the backside. Geroux with some forgettable rides in these preps lately.
He was under the whip on the far turn. That shows he was done early
perfect ride……
As usual great job with the list Steve…Any chance Baffert run Triple Tap on any of prep races left?
Thank you. I would doubt it very strongly
Hey! Bezos is entered in a 1m maiden race on Friday at SA. If he wins impressively, Baffert could send him to the Arkansas Derby in 2 weeks and all he’d need to do is finish second to Concert Tour. Then on to Ky Derby glory!
Just kidding.
What, you don’t think it could happen?
With superior horseman Robert B. training him, anything is POSSIBLE!
Look at this list……….it is very very weak……these last 2 weeks were a bloodbath……i will bet my derby horse sunday in the pool……….to get better odds, like last year…..gotta see the florida race first……..i will know after the florida derby…..i’m very confident this year…..it is weak……very few contenders
So how about stepping to the plate and announcing your “derby horse” before he wins the derby….stop bragging about your pick AFTER the race! Who is it? Come on, tell us who it is…….
Greatest Honour–trouble is, after he wins Sat he will be overbet in that future pool….
2021 Kentucky Derby closer’s exacta straight Greatest Honour/Hidden Stash!
Nice pick Matthew, I like him as well, you and I will be jumping for joy if he does win the derby! I was replying to Mr. Pro-vet about his always talking about his “pick” but never telling us who it is until AFTER a particular race has been run. He’s the first one to brag and say “I told you “he” would win! I highly doubt he’ll come to table with his “derby horse” until AFTER the derby. Just watch….
VET will let you know….I like Greatest Honour but also like some others, fact is it’s still early, there are preps, and works yet….I’ve only made up my mind 2 months early—5 times…Secretariat, Flying Paster, Snow Chief, Tabasco Cat and I’ll Have Another….I also was high on Justify, but most of the time– like this year—I need to see more.
i always post my pick….like last year….almost 12-1 on authentic in last pool……..never telling?……i always tell…….
He’s my Belmont horse. Anything can happen in the Derby, you know.
Don’t hold your breath with this wannabe. He sees “bad signs” with every horse. He bets WP on every chalk with the highest Beyer figure and loses 70% of the time. Yet brags about the few than win. He use to post picks on a different site, until it become laughable of bad his picks were.
You can take his “bad signs” to the bank, has been right time and again…
This troll says this after another one…..life is good……everyone loved him…..he ran a 101 107……i posted i hated him…..and might not even make it to the derby……….my list has been unreal……great horses only……..and I STILL GET TROLLED………they simply dont care…….they lie……
Ellipsis Dancer? Breaking the Code? Infernal Man?
So sad for Life is Good. But he will be back. Hopefully better than before.
Here we go again.. Every Derby Dozen I’m writing this…One of the top contenders is hurt. It’s never the 50-1 shots!
Someone on Baffert’s team tweeted that Life is Good had a small bone chip in a hind ankle. He’ll be off for 60 days.
Steve, you’ve provided much food for thought — or should I say FEED for thought. There are a few on your list that I’d ordinarily not give much consideration. But your insights, as always, cause me to look again. Taking these final preps one at a time, we’re focused on the Florida Derby.
Greatest Honour doesn’t need points so he just has to run big. You said it wouldn’t bother you much if he was a fast-closing second, and I agree. Heck, even if he was third by a length with a powerful stretch run and a requisite speed figure, I’d feel good. Spielberg with 17 points needs at least a third-place finish, and I expect him to get it. His experience against graded stakes competition can’t be overlooked. A third-place finish by Papetu may not be enough to get in the Derby gate. I can’t see him rallying for that kind of finish. The others all need to at least finish second. There’ll be a lot of jocks trying their hardest to get every last ounce of energy from their runners.
Known Agenda, Soup and Sandwich, and Collaborate have run with lasix and will be without it on Saturday. Is that a concern?
Its always a concern, but with so many horses coming off it you cant dwell on it. It is what is. No way of knowing if it will affect them so you just go by what you see and hope for the best. Just anotther guess these days
I was afraid of this, here we go again. As the Derby nears the injuries start to happen.
Life is Good is off the Derby trail, so now for me it is the Greatest Honour and perhaps a couple longshots.
Nevertheless it is the Derby and hopefully there will be some good opportunities to make a few bucks.
Exceellent assessments Steve, you sure do your homework.
Thank you Deacon
Excellent information again, Steve. I didn’t know Medina Spirit was sick, wonder how quickly he will recover? What is the typical time for a horse? For a price I am starting to hone in on MS and a combo with GH. I think he is tough as nails, and been swinging for the fences with the Big Boys on the west coast. Curious, why would you have MS behind #7 in your rankings? That to me is very significant as you have great insight….thanks!
Thanks Jeff. Baffert told me he was sick, then I hear he had an entrapped epiglottis. Typical
Thanks for another great week of Derby analysis, Steve. I’m looking forward to he Florida Derby to see how Greatest Honour fares. If he can pull it off I think he’ll be my pick for Kentucky. I love a closer so I’ll be looking to see how Rombauer does in the SA Derby if that’s where he goes. I haven’t seen much at all about the Jeff Ruby in No. Ky. Saturday. I’ll be curious to see who gets the big points to go to Louisville from that race. I’m also anxious to see how Crowd d Trade can come back against Weyburn in the Wood. It’ll be a great few weeks of gun to be sure, the absolute best time of the year, better than Christmas time!
Fun.
Hello Steve, Glad to see you have Roman Centurian ranked and you still feel he still has a live chance to rejuvenate in his next prep. Hot Rod Charlie’s win in the LA Derby flattered RC who beat HRC in the Robert Lewis. I have him at 41-1 in KDFW3 so I am hoping he pops a strong performance next out. Not giving up on Proxy because as you said he was squeezed at the start of the LA Derby and had to play catch up instead of his usual clean and quick break where he can settle and stalk the pace. I would expect that blinkers will be off for Proxy if he can get in the KY Derby with his 34 points and hopefully he will train super leading up to the Derby because he will certainly be a longshot who IMO still can run with the best.
Here’s something to give you hope, the fourth placed finisher in 2019 Louisiana Derby went on to win the Kentucky Derby. The winner of the Louisiana Derby ended up 11th and the second horse came in at 18. They are only prep races.
Proxy finishes 2nd. Greatest Honour not disqualified from 1st. 😉
All things being equal, Greatest Honour looks the most probable. Proxy would have to have the golden trip to come in second. Essential Quality and Concert Tour are the obvious dangers. O Besos, if he keeps improving, a wild card. That’s from now though. Plenty more to come. There’s a half dozen or so that could go either way.
I have always liked Hot Rod Charlie and am thrilled he won the Louisiana Derby! Im not sure if he can handle the Derby distance, but I hope he proves me wrong. He can handle getting roughed up too and it’s a good thing he has that experience b/c it’s going to happen in the Derby.
I also like Midnight Bourbon, mostly b/c his sire is Tiznow. I’m actually a fan of both horse’s pedigrees, having a soft spot for Indian Charlie and Tiznow. I grew up watching those guys race 🙂
Charlie ran the final 1.5f in 18 4/5 sec. I don’t know for sure how that would compare to, let’s say, a 13-sec final eighth. But he sure did look good in the stretch, and he’s as game as any of the potential Derby starters. I’m looking forward to seeing what his Brisnet late pace figure is.
I read that Medina Spirit was not sick, but instead had a partially entrapped epiglottis that was surgically fixed after the race as per BB.
Baffert told me “he was sick.” But it wouldnt be the first time he did that.
A sneak peek at Churchill Downs’s final Future Wager pool?: (1) Brooklyn Strong (2)Collaborate(3)Concert Tour(4)Crowded Trade(5)Dream Shake(6)Essential Quality(7)Greatest Honour(8)Helium(9)Highly Motivated(10)Hot Rod Charlie(11)Hush of a Storm(12)Known Agenda(13)Mandaloun(14)Medina Spirit(15)Midnight Bourbon(16)Prevalence(17)Risk Taking(18)Rock Your World((19)Roman Centurian(20)Rombauer(21)Soup and Sandwich(22)Spielberg(23)Weyburn.
Difference between a sneak peek and a prediction. Lol. Interesting prediction. You are counting on four horses all running huge in the Florida Derby.
My apology for messed up word spacing, Steve. Rookie mistake. I think the “entries” for the last pool should be released tomorrow or Wednesday at the latest.
If Nicky the Vest isn’t an individual betting interest, I will call SHENANIGANS!
Both thorough and insightful Steve great work again. Loved your benefit of the doubt comment about Helium and Casse. I have a bunch of trainers I consider “benefit of the Doubt” conditioners who consistently surprise often at good prices. Glad to see Dennis O’Neill get a well deserved mention. He’s hit another home run with Hot Rod. Baffert may get most of the high priced well bred yearlings but Doug O has his brother.
Thanks Jerry. Dennis is amazing at the sale. He got The Great One cheap too and look how many he’s bought for Paul Reddam.
The top 3 are Tapit’s….. Here’s hoping‼️❤️
Steve:
Steve: Great list and superb analysis as usual. And thanks for mentioning Parnelli, who I no longer even had on my “just in case” list. I respect Greatest Honour (and would love for Shug to win Derby #2), but your write up on Essential Quality (the fast work, the fastest Thor-Graphs) confirms him as my top pick. I was a bit surprised that you placed Hot Rod Charlie at No. 5 given his impressive performance in the La. Derby. He’s the real deal. Concert Tour is very fast but still seems unproven to me, and while I like Known Agenda, he has to earn it in Saturday’s Florida Derby in my opinion.
I did an informal list of horses who will likely make the Derby gate based on their current point totals and got 10 that have it sewed up. Time is running out for a lot of the rest, even highly regarded horses like Known Agenda, Keepmeinmind, Dream Shake, Prevalence, and The Great One. Your roundup on likely Wood starters was helpful too: I hope Brooklyn Strong waxes all of them!
I like to do a combination what have you done and project what you might do and with Known Agenda running next weekend I am projecting and will see if he can do what i think he can do, and if he cant so be it, you just dop him and move others up. thats why i have so many unknowns ranked. its un to project sometimes.
Mixing it up is provocative and one reason why your rankings work well — they invite debate. Me, I’m afraid of being wrong! It was years before I picked my first Derby winner (I think it was Silver Charm; Secretariat and Spectacular Bid don’t count because they were shoe-ins). I’ve done better since I’ve been following you!
people dont care if youre wrong because most are wrong. you have to make it fun and interesting
Always appreciate your updates and assessments. I just loved Hot Rod Charlie’s win in the Louisiana Derby. Look forward to the other prep races. Safe racing to all
Thanks again.
I think Prevalence will run big in start three–I DO think they are rushing him, and I thought they would—I’ve no problem with the regression, he did lose a week with a fever—and they put him in a race right after….it was the way he won his first race–on the inside, with horses outside in front of him….he stayed within his own stride–horses in their debuts uaually burn themselves out trying to keep up when speed is outside them and I just loved the way this colt handled it—
Prevalence and Dream Shake are two who ran big debut races and then regressed some….start #3 for these two colts will be telling…..
Dream Shake regressed against Life is Good and Medins Spirit. Prevalence regressed against nobody. I understand about the fever but I dont want a horse to regress when he hasnt even run against stakes horses. I think he is a very talented horse, but with two starts,, no stakes, and having a fever I just woulnt rush him to make the Derby, especially when you already have the favorite. It has nothing to do whether hes good enough its just about if he’s ready. We’ll see in his next start if he can take a monster step forward.
Agree he is not ready, he’s going anyway…..has been in his own races, really, a ginormous step up, for sure…
Steve; I am going out on a limb here, but I think the winner of the Derby will be a CA based horse and will lead virtually wire-to-wire! But seriously, if Speilberg wins this weekend that would really confirm the strength of the west-coast based horses. I am very much looking forward to the next 2 week’s prep races: I am sure it will be clearer after we know the winners of the 1 1/8th preps. I have the following in futures: EQ, HRC, Speilberg; Medina; HM and Roman Centurian; thankfully all at pretty high odds. Thank you very much for your comprehensive insights: I have found more than a few flyers over the years after reading your columns! Thanks!
Really is amazing that these CA horses who are front runners never stop running. Can’t put my finger on it, but seems like my thumb can inject it.
That is you wagers typing……not your brain 🙂
Brain and my wagers.
It seems like the California horses are almost always strong…if they are trained by Bafffert or Doug Oneill who have won 5 of the last 9 Derbys. My brain isnt quick enough to pick up who HRC and HM are but good luck.
I’d guess Hot Rod Charlie and Highly Motivated.
Yes!
Hi Steve.
I have a query about your analysis of Spielberg.
You mentioned that Spielberg to have had eight starts and never off the board. According to his form he has a couple of 4th. One in the G2 Robert Lewis and was fourth in the the G3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar last season.
Enjoy your analysis as always.
Regards
“In the money” is top three….hitting the board is top four….
Thanks for the info – Although I always thought that WPS was the board and 4th was only for exotics as in Superfecta.
The first four finishers are posted on the tote BOARD, hence the term on the board. The top three are the mutuel payoffs hence in the money