Derby Rankings: Week 11
After 10 weeks we finally have a new No. 1, but that could change in the next couple of weeks when the final preps will be run, with a number of top horses needing first or second-place points to even get in the Derby. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Mar. 28, 2022 – Week 11
By Steve Haskin
1– Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
Sometimes a horse will force you to do something, and Epicenter finally forced me to do something I have been reluctant to do since day one and that is to knock my No. 1 and 2 horses down a notch. I may have to put them back after the Blue Grass Stakes, but they are going to have to run exceptional races for me to do it. I have been saying for weeks the only thing I need to see from Epicenter is the ability to sit behind horses if he had to and use his tactical speed rather than his front-running speed. That would make him the complete Derby package. Not only did he demonstrate that adaptability, he was able to sit behind two very good horses while hemmed in along the rail, but acting like he had been doing that his entire career. When he finally came off the rail nearing the top of the stretch and fanned out, he went right by the pace-setting second choice Zozos and drew off to win by 2 ½ lengths, closing his final three-sixteenths in a sensational :18 1/5. Good luck finding any Preakness winners who came home faster than that. And he did it following a :24 1/5 quarter. He did everything Rosario asked him to and never was touched with the whip. Epicenter came to the wire flicking his ears back and forth, and when Zozos came alongside him on the gallop-out he re-broke, took off, and just kept going as if he were ready to go around again. If you are looking for the perfect Derby prep this was it. Now I cannot think of a thing this horse can’t do or a reason to keep him off the top spot.
2– Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
He did nothing to lose his No. 1 ranking except not run enough and not win a race since November. It has all been speculative with him, and I still think very highly of him, but he is going to have to run a huge race in the Blue Grass against a tough field and show that explosive kick we saw last year to erase the image of Epicenter toying with him in the Risen Star. So for now let’s just look ahead at the all-important final preps coming up and what he and the other horses have to accomplish and what is expected of them. Now that Messier is officially on the Derby trail, you can certainly make a case for him as No. 1 if he knocks off Forbidden Kingdom in the Santa Anita Derby. So Smile Happy has no room for error in the Blue Grass when he takes on Zandon and Emmanuel among others. He had his “we’ll give him that one” race in the Risen Star, and now he has to live up to his promise. If he is defeated again he better have a darn good excuse and show that he is ready to peak on the first Saturday in May and can win the Derby off two defeats this year. This is what happens when you have lightly raced horses that you don’t know much about. He did have a setback last year, which could be the reason why he was ridden so conservatively in the Risen Star. It took him time to get back and that could hurt him if he doesn’t get a lot out of the Blue Grass. He has been No. 1 all year based on what we saw in his two starts last year, but that was a long time ago, and, although he ran a good race in the Risen Star he did not show that same spark as last year. I just need to see that spark and for him to get something out of the race. In short, everything hinges on whether we see that same horse who was flawless in every aspect last year.
3– Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
A lot of what was said about Smile Happy can be said about him, except for the fact he has faced more adversity and has been at more of disadvantage in his races, and in many ways has shown more versatility. We may have seen the best of Smile Happy, but with him there seems to be more room for improvement and perhaps giving him a higher ceiling, because it is obvious we have not seen his best. I have no idea what he is capable of when things go his way and he is able to put it all together. In many ways he needs a victory more than Smile Happy because, with everything he’s shown so far, he still has lost two of his three races, although as I have stated several times he should have been placed first in the Remsen Stakes after clearly being mugged late by Mo Donegal. To do what he did going a mile and an eighth in a Grade 2 stakes coming off one six-furlong maiden race and pressing the pace the whole way was exceptional, as was his performance in the Risen Star when a bad start dropped him back to last and he had to rally wide like a seasoned closer. That is why we still have no idea how good this colt really is. After April 9, who knows what the Rankings are going to look like. But he intrigues me more than any of the others, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a breakout performance at Keeneland…if things go his way for a change.
4– Messier (Tim Yakteen, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
If you like this colt don’t let the switch to Yakteen dissuade you. He’s been around, he’s a good horseman, and he’s very close to Baffert, having come with him to the Thoroughbreds from Quarter-Horse racing as an assistant. But although Messier is in good hands, this is still the Bob Baffert show regardless of who puts the saddle on him for the Santa Anita Derby. His foundation is Baffert and his works are Baffert, as we saw with his recent six-furlong drill in 1:11 2/5 with John Velazquez up. If Messier wins the Kentucky Derby what an interesting scene that will be on the winner’s podium, as Baffert’s presence no doubt will be felt, especially by the people who banned him. We’ll see how many times Yakteen mentions him and thanks him for the opportunity and how many times SF Racing thanks him for the great job he did developing the horse. But we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. This is a very talented colt, and if he is as impressive as he was in the Robert, B. Lewis Stakes and beats Forbidden Kingdom the way he did in the Bob Hope Stakes there is a good chance you’re looking at the Kentucky Derby favorite. We had him ranked pretty high for several weeks, and now that he’s officially on the Derby trail and eligible for points there will be no ignoring him any longer. He’s in good hands with Yakteen. He is bred to easily handle a mile and a quarter, and if you want an appropriately named sire to describe Baffert’s career and an appropriately named dam to describe Churchill Downs’ opinion of him here they are – Empire Maker and Checkered Past. Regardless of what the program says the empire ain’t dead yet.
5– Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
The Florida Derby will not only tell us how good he is, but who he is, as we have seen several different sides to him. We know he can beat you with pure speed and can come home fast being on a strong pace the whole way; we know he can rally from far off the pace due to a bad start; and we know he can win from off the pace when he is simply asked to do so. And of course we know he can draw off in the stretch and win by three or four lengths or by 17 lengths, as he did in his brilliant maiden victory in 1:09 4/5. He did get in a bad habit of not changing leads in his last two races, but he changed smoothly after several strides in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, so we know he can do it; he just has to make sure he fixes that in the Florida Derby. We have also learned he’s tough as nails, splitting his head open on the starting gate at the start of an allowance race that would require 20 staples to close the wound and he still ran though it to finish third. Between his brilliance, toughness, and adaptability and the story behind his trainer he surely would be one of the more popular horses at Churchill Downs. We just have to see how he handles White Abarrio and Classic Causeway and the others in the Florida Derby and find out for sure how he likes to run. And, yes, if he can get back to changing leads. He showed his sharpness with a five-furlong work in :59 4/5, so all systems are go.
6– Morello (Steve Asmussen, Classic Empire – Stop the Wedding, by Congrats)
He is another lightly raced colt with a world of potential who still has to prove himself, in his case going two turns and facing better quality competition. The Wood Memorial could draw a large field of horses looking to avoid a confrontation with Smile Happy, Zandon and Emmanuel in the Blue Grass Stakes. I believe he is another who needs to win to uphold his image as a potential star or at the very least run an outstanding second to an accomplished horse with two-turn experience. You can excuse a first career defeat in a first attempt at two turns if it looks like he is going to show big improvement in his second attempt. Also, he has to build a solid foundation in this race and put some bottom under him to prepare him to go a mile and a quarter in only his second two-turn race and fourth career start. I don’t see any problems in the talent department because I believe his talent is limitless. He has checked off every box so far, especially his mechanics and professionalism, and he gives the impression that there are a lot of important victories ahead for him. The Wood should tell us where he is now in relation to the other Derby contenders and if he is ready to take that next big step.
7– Secret Oath (D. Wayne Lukas, Arrogate – Absenthe Minded, by Quiet American)
One has to have mixed feelings about her winning the Arkansas Derby, as she is far from a certainty to go on to the Kentucky Derby. Yes, there will be pressure on her connections to run her, but as of now they still seem to be leaning toward the Oaks, which could very well leave the Arkansas Derby irrelevant in relation to the Kentucky Derby. But we’ll deal with that after we see how she does on April 2. She sure has all the tools to win the Arkansas and Kentucky Derbys, from her pedigree to her explosive turn of foot that has decimated her opponents this year. We have also seen her overcome trouble in a race. But although the Arkansas Derby doesn’t look like it has any world beaters coming out of the preps, there are exciting new faces like We the People, Chasing Time, Call Me Jamal, Cyberknife, and the Baffert/Yakteen invader Doppelganger. So, as sensational as Secret Oath has looked, she hasn’t faced horses of this caliber and she was well beaten in two of her three starts last year. But she has been an absolute beast this year and if she is as good as she has looked crushing her opponents in her three starts then it could get very interesting if she wins the Arkansas Derby.
8– White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
What makes the Florida Derby so appealing are the back stories of two of its headliners, White Abarrio and Simplification, a pair of hard-knocking lunch pail horses on the verge of stardom. White Abarrio actually was bred by Spendthrift Farm, but there was nothing about him that made it worthwhile to keep him. He was on the small side and not fashionably bred, so they put him in the Keeneland January mixed sale as a newly turned yearling. But in November they scratched him from the sale after selling majority interest in him as part of a package deal made up of weanlings with lesser bred pedigrees. The buyer was Raul Reyes of Kings Equine who has been breaking the Spendthrift yearlings for years and selling horses for them. The colt, in addition to being small, was not a standout physically. So instead of selling at the Keeneland January sale, he was put in the Ocala January mixed sale, where he sold to Jose Ordonez for a paltry $7,500. He was then pinhooked to the Ocala March 2-year-old sale and was purchased by owner/trainer Carlos Perez for $40,000. In his first start for Perez at Gulfstream on September 24 and racing under the name Clap Embroidery he went off at 12-1 and broke slowly from the rail before quickly moving up into fourth. Seemingly trapped behind horses, he charged up between the two leaders nearing the head of the stretch and burst clear at the eighth pole to win by 6 ½ lengths. Watching in the stands was Mark Cornett of C2 Racing, who was so impressed with what he saw he purchased the colt, turned him over to Saffie Joseph Jr., and now is only one race away from having one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. More on Joseph in Knocking on the Door.
9– Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
Lynch has decided to stay home and come back in three weeks for the Florida Derby rather than wait for the Blue Grass Stakes. His races from a visual standpoint tell me he has made great strides from 2 to 3. His speed figures as a whole tell me he has not, as his Thoro-Graph number of “5” in the Sam Davis and Tampa Bay Derby is the same number he got in his career debut. From a visual standpoint it’s hard to believe he hasn’t improved since then, but if you go by the numbers a “5” will not come close to winning the Kentucky Derby. So can he make a big jump on Saturday to put himself in position to win the Derby? That’s what we’re going to find out. He also has to show he can beat better horses than the ones he beat at Tampa. I believe he probably is a better horse than his speed figures indicate, but in order to analyze all aspects of the colt and what he has to do to move forward they must be mentioned. Lynch has done a super job training him, combining speed with stamina by giving him long stiff works. You don’t see many trainers work their horses like that anymore. He had an excellent final work for the Florida Derby, drilling a half in :47 2/5, second fastest of 93 works at the distance, so you can expect him to be right up with the pace again. He has the stamina and he has good early speed when needed. Now we just have to see if he can combine everything and take that next big step.
10– Forbidden Kingdom (Dick Mandella, American Pharoah – Just Louise, by Five Star Day)
I know I have him ranked much lower than most, but I need to see how he handles Messier going a mile and an eighth before I can consider him a horse who will stay the mile and a quarter in a 20-horse field. He has not faced more than six opponents in his career, and in the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes last year he was extremely rank early, blazing along in :21 2/5 and :43 1/5, and Messier blew right by him. He still set very fast fractions in his San Vicente victory this year against a trio of Baffert horses and Mandella has since had him break off well behind his workmates in the morning. He seemed more relaxed early in his two-turn debut in the San Felipe while opening a big lead, but that was not a strong field and he just outdistanced everyone. I did like his most recent work when he went six furlongs in 1:14 1/5 and continued strong past the wire. Mandella got him working five-eighths in 1:01 and galloping out in 1:13 and change. “This was the first work since the San Felipe Stakes.” Mandella said. “He went the first eighth in :13 and finished in :24 sittin’ easy, so it couldn’t be better.” Slow early and fast late is the key to this colt, and we will see if that’s the way the Santa Anita Derby plays out. It’s still going to be hard to keep him off the lead, which actually is where you want to be in what looks to be a virtual match race. It’s all about controlling his speed and saving something for the end, and coming out of the race looking like a Derby horse.
11– Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
I still consider him a sleeper after his race in the Fountain of Youth, in which he had a terrible trip, losing a lot of ground, and even though he finished fourth, beaten 5 ¼ lengths, he still was able to improve his mundane Thoro-Graph numbers from back-to-back “8s” to a respectable “4 ¼.” And I did like the wide move he made to get into contention before tiring a bit, which was to be expected considering his bad start, loss of ground, and making only his third career start against much better competition. He previously had toyed with his opponents, loping along on an easy lead. This time he had to face adversity and proved to me he was a serious horse. The Blue Grass will be an even tougher field, but the main contenders are also lightly raced horses, so we will get a good idea how much he has improved and how he stacks up against the highly ranked horses. He will have to take another significant step forward in his Thoro-Graph numbers if he is to handle horses like Smile Happy and Zandon, but as I mentioned they also have had only three career starts, so we really don’t know how good any of these horses are.
12– Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
It’s been so long I barely remember this horse other than he is a consistent closer who would move way up with a big performance in the Wood Memorial. Despite his nine-week layoff after getting sick and having his schedule disrupted he does have a strong foundation with several excellent two-turn performances under his belt. He did show his sharpness Saturday with a five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5. Right now I would call him solid. He’s not going to dazzle you and as I have mentioned several times I felt he should have been disqualified in the Remsen Stakes. But the Derby picture is going to start changing dramatically in the next few weeks and a Wood victory or even a strong second would surely put him in contention. His Thoro-Graph numbers have been stuck around “6,” which he has run in his last three starts, so he is going to have to make a pretty big leap to put him in position to win or be competitive in the Kentucky Derby. One thing you can count on is he will be closing in the Wood, and I’m not sure how deep that field is going to be, with Morello and another seldom seen colt, Early Voting, his main threats. But you can bet others will migrate up to New York to escape the tougher prep races.
13– Doppelganger (Tim Yakteen, Into Mischief – Twice the Lady, by Quiet American)
I’ve been waiting to put him in the Rankings for a while, because like many others I believe he is a lightly raced horse on an upward trajectory and has not had an opportunity recently to show who he is. He showed it in his career debut when he rallied from seventh going six furlongs to win by 3 1/2 lengths in 1:09 1/5 at Los Alamitos. But in his two starts since he has had to chase a loose on the lead Forbidden Kingdom and did at least close the gap on him each time. In the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes he wanted no part in chasing a :44 2/5 half, trying to catch not only Forbidden Kingdom but another fast horse in stablemate Pinehurst, winner of the Del Mar Futurity. In the San Felipe Stakes, his first race around two turns, he never saw Forbidden Kingdom who was so far in front of him right from the start after he broke a bit slowly. But he wasn’t rushed and rated kindly some 10 lengths off the pace. He had no shot to win, but was the only one to at least go after Forbidden Kingdom, cutting his margin down to 5 ¾ lengths at the finish while finishing well clear of the others. Since that race he turned in a sensational six-furlong work in 1:10 4/5. Now he heads to Bob Baffert’s playground, Oaklawn Park, for the Arkansas Derby where he faces Wayne Lukas’ fabulous filly Secret Oath, a possible up-and-coming star in We the People, and for the most part a field of OK horses who have not set the world afire in the Oaklawn prep races. I can’t predict what he’s going to do, but I can say that a big performance will make him a serious Kentucky Derby horse.
14– Zozos (Brad Cox, Munnings – Papa’s Forest, by Forestry)
When I first looked at his pedigree I felt his first three generations leaned more heavily toward shorter distances, and obviously it still does, but when a horse can finish second to arguably the best 3-year-old in the country going 1 3/16 miles in his third career start, setting all the pace and hanging tough in the stretch, then you have to conclude he is just a darn good horse who is utilizing the stamina he does have farther back in his pedigree, such as his third dam being by the distance-loving Big Spruce, a son of the great stamina influence Herbager, and his broodmare sire being out of a daughter of Pleasant Colony, a son of His Majesty. As an added point of interest, Saturday’s Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer is inbred to Pleasant Colony. Zozos also is inbred three times to Secretariat. It looked like a bold move trying to outrun Epicenter early, but he did it with little effort and had the improving Pioneer of Medina lapped on him most of the way. As fast as they came home he never showed any signs of tiring and was still striding out strongly at the wire. I don’t know how effective he will be going a mile and a quarter with his running style and his lack of experience, but there is no doubt he has a bright future.
15– Early Voting (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Amour d’ete, By Tiznow)
The Wood Memorial is coming up a strange race. Yes, Morello is making his two-turn debut, but what makes this race so hard figure out is that you have two horses who have already won stakes at 1 1/8 miles and are coming into the Wood off nine-week layoffs, so we have no idea what to expect from him or Mo Donegal. They both are coming off sharp five-furlong works, with Early Voting going in 1:00 2/5 at Belmont Park. What I loved about Early Voting’s Withers victory was how quickly he separated himself from the rest of the field approaching the head of the stretch, and this was only the second start of his career. Of course, two horses who came out of that race, Un Ojo and Grantham, both went on to turn in huge efforts in the Rebel Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby, finishing first and second, respectively at big prices. We just have to see if Early Voting can follow suit. Like many 3-year-olds this year he just doesn’t have enough of a resume to get a good line on him. Whatever he does in the Wood will not surprise me.
16– Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Pioneerof the Nile – Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya)
Although he has proven on two occasions he is no match for Epicenter, he also has proven he is a tough consistent colt who is going to give you 100 percent every race. He is improving, but is short on weapons. He apparently likes to track horses and keeps running hard to the wire, but he hasn’t shown enough punch to pass them or hold off horses coming from behind, so he is forced to settle for third or fourth. He only has 25 points, which normally would put him either way down the list or on the bubble, but this year there is a good chance it can get you in the Derby. The big question is whether he is good enough right now to make an impact on the race with his running style and lack of a big closing punch. But as I said, he is moving forward with each race, so you never know.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Continuing with the story of WHITE ABARRIO, Saffie Joseph grew up on his father’s farm in Barbados and has been around horses since he was 3. His parents wanted him to go to college, but after one year at Florida International University he realized that horses were in his blood and he returned to Barbados and started training. But he had higher aspirations, so he returned to Florida to train even though he had no horses. He picked up a few claimers and then in 2019 he won a six-way shake and claimed a horse named Math Wizard, who would go on to win the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. After the race an emotional Joseph said, “This is what I dream of. It’s all I ever wanted to do in life. I never doubted my ability. If I had the horses I felt I was as capable as anyone. Without the horses I’m nothing.“ Well he might have THE horse and now we’ll see if he can take him from his father’s farm in Barbados to racing’s ultimate glory.
I will say this for SLOW DOWN ANDY he sure knows how to win ugly. I had a spot all reserved for him in the Rankings once he took care of business in the Sunland Park Derby. But now, with this race being run on Sunday night, well after my column is usually sent in, I have to give it time to sink in. So he gets blinkers for the first time and runs the speedy Straight Up G off his feet after taking it to him right from the start and blazing along in :22 1/5, :45 1/5 and 1:09 2/5. After putting him away, Mine That Bird Derby runner-up BYE BYE BOBBY comes charging up alongside and looks like he going to blow by Slow Down Andy, who battles back, but starts his antics of cocking his head to the right again. Just like with Messier in the Los Alamitos Futurity, he appears beaten, but refuses to give up even though he looks like a mess, cocking his head and swishing his tail every time he gets hit. After those suicidal fractions, Andy went his next quarter in a pokey :27 2/5. But his final eighth in :13 1/5 was not bad all things considered. He certainly is an entertaining horse who does everything unconventionally, and he knows how to fight, but I need a little more time to determine whether he is a Derby horse, especially if he’s going to get keyed up with blinkers. It sure put speed in him, but now it is time to slow down Andy. I’ll probably rank him next week just so I can keep writing about him.
It looks as if there is interest in running UAE Derby winner CROWN PRIDE in the Kentucky Derby if his owner can be convinced. With Japanese horses starting to dominate international racing, having won five stakes on the Dubai World Cup card and two Breeders’ Cup victories last year, you certainly can’t dismiss this colt, who loved the stretch-out to 1 3/16 miles, wearing down a stubborn SUMMER IS TOMORROW before drawing clear to win by 2 ¾ lengths despite never changing leads in the stretch. He was in the clear all the way before rallying four-wide. Crown Pride, who is inbred 3 x 4 to Sunday Silence, won his first two starts convincingly, but faltered in the mud in the Hyacinth Stakes. The final time and closing fractions of the UAE Derby were pretty slow, but it’s tough to figure out how to interpret that. The runner-up, who was coming off an 8 1/4-length victory at Meydan, also is being considered for the Derby, but unlike Crown Pride, his pedigree is all U.S. breeding, having been bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones’ Airdrie Stud, who is also the breeder of Zandon.
It apparently took IN DUE TIME a while to recover from his second-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, which was his stakes debut, but he finally returned to the work tab with a five-furlong drill in a sharp 1:00 flat, so he apparently has fully recovered, as evidenced by Breen working him five furlongs first time back and letting him roll. Despite running second, his Thoro-Graph number regressed significantly, going from a “3” to a “6.” That “3” came off a huge leap from an “8 ¾,”so maybe a “bounce” should not have come as a surprise, but that was a big step backwards even though he looked good visually, closing fairly strong and striding out well at the finish. Whatever the effects were from that race, which kept him off the work tab for three weeks, we will have to see how he bounces back and what the plans are for him. Once we learn more I am sure he will be back in the Rankings
It doesn’t take a genius to see that RATTLE N ROLL is not the horse we saw last year. Whether he hasn’t recovered from the injury he suffered after the Breeders’ Futurity or has just lost that spark he showed when he blew his field away at Keeneland. For a brief second you could see him lower his head as if he were going to make that big move on the turn, but he went nowhere and at least was able to get fourth, beaten eight lengths, in a three-horse photo with two other disappointments, GALT and CALL ME MIDNIGHT.
After three strong five-furlong works, the exciting but lightly raced CHARGE IT blew out a half in :48 1/5 for the Florida Derby. The half-brother to Will Take Charge is taking a big step up from a maiden race, but that maiden race was so impressive it stamped him as a star in the making. Todd Pletcher could have run Emmanuel back in the Florida Derby or even Mo Donegal, but he elected to run an unproven maiden winner instead. I wrote extensively about him after that race and how impressive his performance was. Once again, he has run only twice and would be up against in the Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts, but these days you can never dismiss any horse with exceptional talent. If he can beat the likes of Simplification, White Abarrio, and Classic Causeway off that maiden race I wouldn’t even venture a guess what he’d be capable of at Churchill Downs.
Speaking of the Florida Derby, the real sneaky horse could be PAPPACAP, who turned in another sharp work, going a half in :47 1/5 at Mark Casse’s training center. If you can forgive his one baffling performance last time out you already know what he’s capable of and he has been working brilliantly. Picture a company which had been successful, but suffered one bad blow and its stock plummeted. Now that company is making strides to try to get back on its feet. If you believed in that company before, this is the time to buy up stock because you’re never going to see that price again. Many a killing has been made on Wall Street that way, buying up stock in a company when their market is down. I’m not saying Pappacap is going to win the Florida Derby, but if he can bounce back and look like the horse we saw in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and you have invested in him when his market was down, who knows what kind of killing you can make on the first Saturday in May.
Another horse pointing for the Florida Derby, O CAPTAIN, who is coming off a fast-closing third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at 87-1, had a leisurely five-furlong breeze in 1:03 at Gulfstream. At Tampa Bay, SHIPSATIONAL, who was second in the Sam F. Davis and third in the Tampa Derby, worked five furlongs in 1:02 for the Florida Derby.
At Oaklawn, three Arkansas Derby hopefuls had their final works Saturday, with Rebel winner UN OJO going an easy half in :48 4/5, out in 1:02; the undefeated WE THE PEOPLE working a sharp half in :47, out in 1:00 4/5 in company, with trainer Rudy Brisset aboard; and BEN DIESEL going five furlongs in a brisk :59 flat in company with the older stakes winner Last Samurai. On Sunday, BARBER ROAD, who has been knocking on the door all year, worked a half in :49 2/5, out in 1:01 4/5. Earlier in the week, CHASING TIME worked five furlongs in 1:00 flat, as he tries to rebound off his fifth-place finish in the Rebel. One Oaklawn horse heading to the Blue Grass Stakes is ETHEREAL ROAD, who worked five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 for Wayne Lukas. I feel he was the best horse in the Rebel Stakes and definitely is improving, as his Thoro-Graph numbers indicate.
Mark Casse’s other horses also continue to work well at his training center, with VOLCANIC going five furlongs in :59 2/5 and GOLDEN GLIDER a half in :48 2/5. Volcanic, who likely is heading for the Blue Grass Stakes, passed the Tampa Bay Derby after a solid third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, in which he was three-wide the whole way and got a “5 ½” Thoro-Graph number, only a half-point slower than the victorious Classic Causeway. Remember, this is a horse who outdueled Charge It in a virtual match race in his previous start.
At Keeneland, TIZ THE BOMB had another sharp drill, working a half in :47 1/5 for the Jeff Ruby Steaks. If he passes that test it will be interesting to see if they take a shot and point him for the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket..
COMMANDPERFORMANCE is off the Derby trail after failing in a maiden race at Tampa Bay. We know the talent is there, having seen him finish a strong second in the Champagne Stakes as a maiden with only one start. But after battling through ankle problems he has to get his mind back into racing. If Pletcher can find that spark again we still could see him in the Belmont Stakes.
Hi, Steve. I’m away from home on a family matter, but I do tune in sporadically. You continue to amaze with insightful and entertaining commentary. Even with just 3 final preps left to go, there’s so much still unknown. I’m sticking with Smile Happy as the top choice. But he needs to win impressively on Saturday to keep that honor. Epicenter has already done enough to be thought of as a probable Derby favorite. I consider this crop to be special even with just those two colts. But a Derby win by one of about 10 or 12 other hopefuls wouldn’t surprise me.
The unknown surrounding Epicenter is the 6 weeks from the Louisiana Derby to the Kentucky Derby. As there’s only been one similar La Derby (date and distance), history is not helpful. Epicenter had 6 weeks between his maiden win and the Gun Runner Stakes, and 5 weeks between the Risen Star and the La Derby. I lean toward the belief that he won’t lose his edge.
White Abarrio is an enticing prospect at a decent price in the Derby, but his final furlong time in the Fla Derby and his lone race away from GP (at, of all places, Churchill Downs!) give me cause for concern. I wish that Brad Cox could have had one more prep for Zozos, but the late start and the calendar prevented it. And last but not least…Simplification has a world of talent but has yet to put together back-to-back wins, not to mention that all seven of his races have been in sunny south Florida. Oops, I mentioned it. Thanks again!
Classic Causeway has been completely dropped from Pool#5 of The KD Future Wager. Unless you go with #24 -All Others 15-1. Maybe they know that he will be passing the race. I haven’t seen that anywhere. Epicenter 5-1 ML, Smile Happy 6-1. Charge It & Tiz the Bomb both 12-1. I might make a few exacta wagers. I was figuring that Epicenter might be about 4-1 at post time on Derby Day. This pool will close before Saturday’s prep races are run.
That 12-1 on Charge It is the lowest Morning Line of all of the Todd Pletcher runners(The Todd Squad). Simplification at 15-1 might be worth a bet if you can forgive his Florida Derby run. I can. I didn’t like the way that Jose Ortiz went after Classic Causeway out of the gate. I think he still hung on for 3rd. Jose is one of my favorites. I just didn’t like his tactics on Saturday.
Pioneer of Medina is 30-1 ML and sits at 18 on the points list with 25 points. With 3 prep races to be run on Saturday, can he hang on to his top-20 standing? He may have to run back in The Lexington. We’ll see. I’m definitely getting the feeling that we will be seeing a full 20-horse gate on May 7th.
Charge It is a nice colt, but he’s the flavor of the week from a betting standpoint. 15 to 1 on Simplification is an excellent bet. He’s proven, tough, and hangs in there — like last year’s REAL winner, Medina Spirit.
Something worth thinking about, winners of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes are often overrated and by the time the Florida Derby comes up they have been surpassed by other colts more suited to 9f. or longer possibly.
Does Simplification fit this model? Remember Mutasaabeq, Chance It, Mihos, Mask all past winners of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes that seemed good Derby prospects.
Davids
In the FOY, Jose Ortiz had Simplification setting off the pace, running 6th at the 3/4 pole, then made his move approaching the far turn. Simplifiation’s tactical speed was on full display, during the stretch run, as he drew off to win, by 3 1/2L.
It’s a mystery to me why Jose Ortiz changed tactics in the Florida Derby, getting into a pace duel with Classic Causeway, leaving little left in the tank to hold off the closers.
In the upcoming KD, I suspect Antonio Sano will give Ortiz specific pre-race instructions to make a clean break out of the gate, and get Simplification in a good position coming out of the first turn, setting mid-pack possibly. Let the pace setters burn themselves out, and make his move like he did in the FOY.
Simplification is a class horse, to dismiss him based on what past winners have done in the MMM Stakes, could be a costly mistake. Just my opinion.
Granted, anything is possible but that’s twice in a row now that White Albarrio has easily defeated Simplification whilst also having some minor problems to contend with prior to the race as well. In the Florida Derby, White Albarrio appeared full of run while Simplification looked a very tired horse.
Simplification has plenty of time to refuel his engine but 10f. may be too far, especially as they pace in the Derby appears to be quite torrid this year. Best of luck, anything is possible but I’d be a little wary.
This is what CC’s trainer, Brian Lynch has had to say about the race:
“I’m just going to regroup completely here,” trainer Brian Lynch said by phone Sunday morning from Palm Meadows Training Center, 12 miles west of Gulfstream Park. “We’re going to make sure within a few days that something doesn’t show up. We’ll just let the dust settle before we start saying we’re going to go here or there.”
Lynch said he found nothing physically wrong in a routine check of Classic Causeway about 12 hours after Saturday’s race.
“Everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the nose,” Lynch said. “Isn’t that what Mike Tyson said? The good news is we’re not looking at anything we can point the finger at. He scoped clean, and he’s come back good.”
Lynch said he and his stable will make their annual trek north to Kentucky next week. Should the decision be made go forward into the Derby, Classic Causeway already has clinched the points he needs to be one of the 20 starters.
Maybe Flavien Prat can pull out of his slump on Zandon in Saturday’s Blue Grass. It sounds crazy to say that a 29% jockey is in a slump. It started a few weeks ago in his last days at Santa Anita and carried over to Dubai and Hot Springs. No big deal. All jockeys and trainers have hot & cold streaks. So do bettors and horse players.
Pratt had 2 winners and a 2nd at SA yesterday.
The nose win by Echo Zulu over Hidden Connection at Fairgrounds and Secret Oath’s loss on Saturday really open up the possibilities for The Kentucky Oaks. Nest, Classy Edition, Hidden Connection, Adare Manor, Turnerloose, Echo Zulu, Kathleen O, and Secret Oath are just 8 horses off the top of my head that are likely to show up on May 6th in Louisville. Yes, I mention Turnerloose despite her finishing way back of Echo Zulu & Hidden Connection in Louisiana. Trainer Cox has a knack of getting his horses to run huge races on the biggest days. I’m partial to Adare Manor and Kathleen O as of now. Still more than 4 weeks away. I’m starting to favor Kathleen O because all the BB horses are giving me a bad vibe right now. That could change. Let’s see what happens in The Santa Anita Oaks on Saturday.
I see that BB has 2 horses listed among the “possibles” for The Santa Anita Derby. I thought that his 90-day suspension started today. Did I get my Mondays mixed up? If I’m correct, those 2 horses will need a new trainer pronto. Like before entries are taken on Wednesday. Santa Anita needs the horses to run because it’s already looking like a short and non-competitive field. Two stars and some field fillers IMO. Santa Anita will have the good weather on Saturday, but, the unbetable nature of The Santa Anita Derby has me looking at the better cards at Aqueduct and Keenland. A four or five horse Santa Anita Derby would be an embarrassment. No offense.
CHRB has advised Baffert that it is complying with the suspension of Baffert and he has been told to remove all the horses he was training, his tack, vacate the stalls, the office and remove all signs etc.
In order to race at Santa Anita, the two horses have to be transferred to other trainers.
Adare Manor has been transferred to Yakteen and therefore eligible to run in the Santa Anita Oaks.
As of yesterday Tiaba, Zedan’s horse, has not been transferred to another trainer. Time is running out for Zedan to transfer the horse and may have already run out.
Messier apparently is the only Baffert trained colt that has a shot for a gate in the Derby and will have either win or take 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby since he has zero points.
Doppelganger is out of contention with only ten points.
Pinehurst was eased in the Dubai Derby and reports from the Dubai Racing Authority stewards showed that Pinehurst “moved poorly throughout”. A post-race veterinary revealed the colt to be lame in the left fore-leg.
Is that a new rule? I thought when a trainer gets a suspension, they can turn it over to their assistant …
Per news reporting, Baffert had over a hundred horses in his stable.
“Because the suspension is over 60 days, under the CHRB rules, during the term of the suspension, Mr. Baffert will be banned from all enclosures under the jurisdiction of the CHRB and Mr. Baffert shall not be permitted to be involved in the training of horses who have previously been under his care,” the statement read. “Any trainer who may apply for stalls in anticipation of a transfer will be required to comply fully with any applicable restrictions.”
CHRB rule 1484: “If any applicant for a license or any licensee is under suspension, set down, ruled off, excluded from the inclosure, or otherwise barred from any racing occupation or activity requiring a license, it is prima facie evidence that he or she is unfit to be granted a license or unfit to hold a license or participate in racing in this State as a licensee during the term of any suspension or exclusion from racing imposed by any competent racing jurisdiction.”
Citing CHRB rule 1843.3 which deals with disciplinary actions stemming from medication violations, licensed trainers suspended for 60 days or more shall be banned from all CHRB licensed facilities.
“In addition, during the period of suspension, such trainer shall forfeit all assigned stall space and shall remove from the inclosures all signage, colors, advertisements, training-related equipment, tack, office equipment, and any other property,” the rule states.
The CHRB also prohibits a trainer suspended for more than 30-days from transferring the horses to any licensed family member, or to any other licensee employed by the suspended licensee within the previous year.
“’Licensed family members’ means any person who holds an occupational license issued by the CHRB and who is related to the suspended licensee, or the licensee whose license is revoked, by blood, or by marriage or domestic partnership, or who is related by blood to the spouse or domestic partner of such licensee,” the rule adds.
As written, the rules do not preclude a licensed trainer with no immediate ties to Baffert from assuming the running of his stable in whole or in part, including employees, should the relevant owners in Baffert’s barn agree to such a replacement, explained an expert on these matters who asked to remain anonymous.
There would, however, be a set of strict stipulations governing such a scenario, the expert explained.
Baffert would not be allowed to directly contact that trainer for the period of the suspension, for example. And all financial duties of the day-to-day running of the barn—such as payroll and other routine stable costs—would also be the replacement trainer’s sole responsibility.
There would, however, be a set of strict stipulations governing such a scenario, the expert explained.
Baffert would not be allowed to directly contact that trainer for the period of the suspension, for example. And all financial duties of the day-to-day running of the barn—such as payroll and other routine stable costs—would also be the replacement trainer’s sole responsibility.
The KHRC has yet to weigh in officially on this particular matter. In its original ruling, the KHRC ruling states that, “Entry of all horses owned or trained by Mr. Baffert is denied pending transfer to persons acceptable to the stewards.”
I have not read how the NYRA and other state racing jurisdictions are or will be handling the suspension. I did read somewhere that once the suspension (90 days), Baffert will have to apply for stall space at Santa Anita.
They’re slamming him…
I personally do not have an opinion one way or the other except for what I have commented on in the past and that is these entire fiasco including and especially the disqualification of Medina Spirit could have been avoided if the powers that be had put their big boy and big girl pants on and came up with a governing body that had authority over all tracks.
It has never ceased to amaze me that every other country, USEF and the Olympic Equestrian Committee has rules. regulations, punishments etc other than the United States.
Just read this regarding the NYRA that was announced today:
Citing Section 910 of the New York Racing, Pari-Mutuel Wagering and Breeding Law, the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) has announced that it will honor the 90-day suspension handed down to trainer Bob Baffert and that the conditioner is “prohibited from participating in any New York State horse racing activity through at least July 2, 2022.”
I heard Bob is running Taiba in the SA Derby, very nice looking maiden winner, is he trying to soften up Forbidden Kingdom, of is he trying to win the 100 points (zero points if he does), thus hurting the chances of the two colts that he lost……
Taiba is owned by the Zendan Racing Stables (Amir Zendan) whose loyalty to Bob Baffert has been evident….recently giving him credit after Country Grammar won the Dubai World Cup. Mr. Zendan was quoted as saying that he will go to the KD with a horse with Baffert as trainer or will not go at all.
Secret Oath was squeezed like an lemon in the Arkansas Derby in more ways that one. She was tapped out turning into the stretch which is why the Jock was forced to save any bottom she had left nearing the wire to spark her pending recovery… I believe she was that much use in the race. She might be done for a while as her connections may have made a mistake and are now are playing rest-up catch-up going into the Oaks. We’ll just see if and how she gets to the CD gate on pink day… but their choice to face colts has left it’s physical mark and may also have also made a much more serious mental mark on her. They have five weeks to recover. So… let’s just see what happens. These creatures aren’t made of science and machine that just responds to man’s ego like my Ferrari and BMW… they are a blood and bone cast in a form of art and hold a precious spirit of courage and will from above. That Jock did the right thing to protect what little she had left… and everyone’s wondering how she got passed for second. Now you know why…
Haven’t seen all the reports about this except Irad reporting he ran out of horse and the horse came back sound. They will know more next time he goes out on the track in the morning.
Above post was for the Florida Derby so sorry. As for the filly tight racing quarters happens with colts and fillies. She comes out sound she is going to the Oaks and a loss is just that a loss. If she had been closer to the front when she started passing horses it might very well have been a different outcome. This filly has lost races before as a 2 year old. I personally think she will be fine. This was an opportunity to see how she stacked up now against the colts without sacrificing a spot in the Kentucky Oaks. A lot of racing left in the year.
Just watched an interview with D Wayne and she was tired but otherwise OK this morning. She had been out hand grazing. Considering the circumstances, I think she did great. She has a very bright future in front of her.
Do not fault the connections for giving her a chance.
As to fillies racing against colts, should we forget Zenyatta, Rachel, Beholder.
Fillies and mares run against colts and stallions and geldings all the time in other countries and are successful!
I do agree that the big problem with the Derby is the 20 horse field for the Derby on such as narrow race track (D Wayne mentioned that as well). Always thought it was a big mistake to do that.
Lynda, please allow me to chime in on your comment. When you state, “As to fillies racing against colts, should we not forget Zenyatta, Rachel, Beholder”. I would counter that with, should we not forget the demise of Eight Belles and Ruffian racing against colts. Additionally, you stated, “Fillies and mares run against colts and stallions and gelding all the time in other countries and are successful”! I’d venture to say 95 % are turf races. The legs don’t take the pounding on turf like they do on dirt surfaces. To take this one step further, in my view, it’s un-natural for females to compete against males, regardless of the sport.
I agree with you—dirt racing requires strength, and fillies, while equal to males in speed and stamina are not equal in strength, it’s why a filly can beat colts in sprints, in marathons but not as easy to defeat male horses at a flat mile to a mile and quarter on dirt—the Kentucky Derby is not a good race for a filly, maybe an Amazon like Winning Colors but running a filly in the Derby is like running a gelding, it’s a big ask, and all you really get is the purse, while a colt winning gets a huge stud fee upgrade
Matthew, Secret Oath just finished third in an open G1, ahead of Doppelganger, Kavod, Ben Diesel, We the People, Un Ojo, and Chasing Time. Nobody is looking at that result and saying those out-of-the-money colts shouldn’t have been entered in the race. My guess is that Secret Oath will be just fine. But if she doesn’t turn out to be the filly we saw in her previous two races, a bunch of folks will say it was the Ark Derby that done her in!
Yes she beat most of them, and I would not have been surprised were she to have won….but that is not the Kentucky Derby, and she is a TOP CLASS FILLY, no reason to get her beat like that, so that you can run in the Derby—my two cents!
Totally agree, there is a reason why they have the Kentucky Oaks.
Spot on Matthew W, your two cents says it all!
We do have separate races for fillies and cots as they mature at different rates. I do not think it fair though to mention breakdowns of fillies without also acknowledging breakdowns of colts as well like Barbaro. We no longer have match races because of what happened to Ruffian. They do race more on turf overseas as they have wonderful, historic tracks that are older then what we have here. They aren’t flat either. In the end the call to run against the boys depends on the filly/mare, owner and trainer.
I agree Laura, it is the decision of the trainer and the owners based on the filly/mares attributes. Colts and stallions actually break down at a greater rate than mares. fillies and geldings because all the nutrition goes to building muscle rather than bone.
There are other reasons for Thoroughbreds to break down. Kissing spine is one. Also bone bruising that goes undetected can ultimately result in a breakdown. Sometimes the horse has a heart attack or an aortic rupture, drops dead on the track, breaking bones as the horse falls. If I am not mistaken something similar happened to the horse Victor was riding who broke down resulting in a near life threatening injury.
Regarding geldings per Matthew W’s comment, there have been many successful geldings that have earned big purse money. That of course was in an era when horse racing was a true sport and horses were bred to race, not bred to breed.
Regarding Ruffian, sadly it was not a matter of if but rather when. Even if she had not broken down in the match race, she probably would have broken down in a race against fillies. Ruffian had extremely light bone. Some have suggested that her lack of bone density was the result of a high protein diet that was the thing in that era. Others feel that she inherited her fragile bones from her sire. It is a proven fact that Thoroughbreds from certain sire lines are more subject to fractures. She did hit her shoulder as she left the starting gait which also may have contributed to her breakdown.
Eight Bells had a bad habit of cross cantering which is a fault in almost equestrian sports. Many professionals think that is what contributed to her collapse and breakdown.
We seem, I think, to be in an era whereby speed, 16.4 and up to almost 17 hand Thoroughbreds that weigh well over 1200 pounds are the only viable racehorses (in this country at least).
The great Kelso was from a bygone era. I also agree that breeding for speed and not to improve the breed as a whole, like genetic faults has been a problem for many years now. I have read studies that suggest more racing at 2 improves bone density. Like everything else you buy into it or not.
I still have a documentary about Seabiscuit where they interviewed Baffert about how much Seabiscuit raced. His answer was they raced more as training then and today we train more, race less.
Yes, Kelso, John Henry, Phar Lap, Lava Man, Da Hoss. And the geldings that have won the Kentucky Derby; Vagrant (1876), Apollo (1882), Macbeth II (1888), Old Rosebud (1914), Exterminator (1918), Paul Jones (1920), Clyde Van Dusen (1929), Funny Cide (2003) and Mine That Bird (2009).
Exactly, Laura. Some sideliners like to pontificate about the girls vs the boys. Maybe they should back up their statements with EVIDENCE. When they cherry pick a few examples, others can do the same. For example, the last filly to run in the Derby, Devil May Care, won two filly G1s immediately after finishing 10th in the Derby. Three Ring won a filly G1 immediately after finishing 19th in the Derby. Serena’s Song won 6 G1s including the Haskell vs males, after being 16th in the Derby. Maybe there’s some scientific evidence about fillies racing against colts. Until someone convinces me one way or the other with facts, I’ll just assume that skilled horsemen know what’s best for the horses in their care.
“Sideliners”? Your humor escapes me. 🙁
Well, well, well! Did you take it personally, Mr. “In my view, it’s un-natural for females to compete against males, regardless of the sport” Dawson?
No EddieF, I didn’t take it “personal”, but the term “sideliner” was an obvious reference to me. In a previous comment, you referred to me as “feeble-minded”. Putting those two terms together, you’ve referenced me as a “feeble-minded sideliner”. You’re starting to act and sound like Pro-Vet.
BTW, when you referred to me as “feeble-minded”, the monitor on this blog, saw fit to remove your entire comment in short order.
You appear to be a very troubled man, that needs to lash out at others, to compensate for your insecurities.
Go in peace EddieF. 🙂
Hey, Bill…actually my comment referred to the many folks on the sidelines who question the decisions of experienced horsemen without any rational argument. As for the deleted comment that you strangely continue to reference, you always fail to mention that YOUR post, which gave rise to MY post on feeble-mindedness, was also DELETED.
My posts in this thread are civil. Yours is not.
Yawn, wth an accompanying eye roll.
We’re all sideliners here, only giving our opinions—
Exactly!
As good as she is… I suspect Brienne of Tarth she is not… But yes there are current reports and those to read and hear in coming days ahead. I suspect she’ll rest in her stall upon the deepest of straw a day or two beyond what is customary… This is a matter of the “racing thoroughbred” worthy of the closest scrutiny. A rare result of a test of stress on the road to the Springtime Derby in which lessons are learned, sometimes recorded and/or confirmed.
It is on record when Secretariat lost a race he would sulk in a corner of his stall. I am not saying this filly is Secretariat but it would not surprise me if she does the same. Just all wait and see what happens when she comes back out. A lot of racing left in the year.
Your comment is spot on Ross, I’ve never been in favor of racing fillies against top colt, and stated as much in various comments prior to the running of the Arkansas Derb. Sometimes, big egos cloud good judgement. I’m hopeful Secret Oath comes out of the race in good order, and moves forward to race another day.
As White Abarrio was motoring past Simplification in the deep stretch, the first thought that came to my mind, was a comment that Point Unforgiven posted on February 4th, that stated the following, “I’m inclined to believe we’re all going to be kicking ourselves for dismissing White Abarrio at 171-1 in Pool 2 if he wins the Holy Bull”.
I replied, “I for one didn’t dismiss White Abarrio in Derby Futures Pool 2. I boxed him with Simplification in one of my exacta wagers. In the event, White Abarrio and Simplifiation were to finish 1st and 2nd in the Derby, I would receive a handsome payout. I’m not getting my hopes up, but I can dream can’t I”?
A White Abarrio/Simplification finish would pay $9,099.00
A Simplification/White Abarrio finish would pay $7,183,00
Regarding the Florida Derby, when Simplification and Classic Causeway got into a speed duel, early on, I thought this doesn’t look good. I’m wondering if Jose Ortiz did this one his own, or was instructed to so by Antonio Sano, pre-race.
In the FOY, Simplification rated off the pace, saving his tactical speed, to make a late run approaching the far turn.
Why change something that worked well in the FOY? Whatever the case, Simplifiation has enough points to make the Derby starting gate, and show the racing world he has the class to compete with the top KD contenders. Just my opinion.
The filly at Gulfstream Kathleen O might’ve won the Florida Derby, and for fun!
Possibly yes, possibly no but I really like Kathleen O. for the Kentucky Oaks.
The owner and bloodstock agent for Cyberknife were on a plane to Hot Springs, and lost cabin pressure and lost consciousness, did not make it to the race….were twice lucky yesterday!
Steve you’re going to have to Haskinize this story!
This morning, Brian Lynch sounds less than confident that Classic Causeway will go on to The Derby. He hasn’t found anything wrong so far to explain the poor performance. I see some people saying that he couldn’t go the distance and that he is a sprinter. I don’t agree with that. He stopped before they got to the final turn. Who knows what happened? Maybe he just didn’t like the track.
An assistant trainer for Un Ojo said that the horse tore himself up by scraping the rail causing cuts that required staples to close. A possible excuse for his poor performance.
Thanks for the intel on CC and Un Ojo, Tommy!
I always underestimate the Brad Cox horses. I’m not sure why. His horses always seem to run their best races on the biggest days.
I’m not sure what to make of The Florida Derby. Even though I expected Classic Causeway to have trouble with the local horses, he sure stopped early. Jose Ortiz on Simplification seemed determined not to let Classic Causeway get away to an easy lead. Charge It looked to me like he could have won the race if he didn’t run so greenly in the stretch. He really got bet. I’ll have to re-examine Charge It. He could be something moving forward.
I look forward to reading what Steve Haskin has to say about yesterday’s action along with all the reader comments. 5 weeks out and I’m still looking for a Derby horse. If I don’t warm up to a horse, I’ll look for a longshot. 20-1 or better. There should be plenty of those to choose from.
Kathleen O looked very good again in her first start around 2 turns. I look forward to seeing Adare Manor at Santa Anita next Saturday. One of those 2 will be my Oaks horse. I can use them both, and only those 2, in all multi-race wagers. No offense.
Tiz the Bomb looked much better winning on Saturday than he did when he won The Battaglia last month. Even though he didn’t beat top 3 years olds at Turfway, his 2 wins there have him going in the right direction and will certainly build the horse’s confidence. Let’s see if the connections change their plans and go to The Derby. Since my Derby horses aren’t working out, I’ll be looking for a longshot. Tiz the Bomb should be long odds if they run there.
I read that Gulfstream is going to replace their Turf course. I’d like to see them replace all 3 of their tracks. No offense.
Back to the drawing board. Both Simplification and Classic Causeway were in my top five, and I need to rethink. Like Laura, I wondered if Classic Causeway had some problem because he dropped out of it so quickly, but whether he did or not, there is cause for concern. I think I will put White Abarrio in his place on my list. I was also disappointed in Simplification. I suspect he might have done better coming from farther back, but I’m sure Jose didn’t want Classic Causeway running free on the lead. I’m going to leave Simplification in my top five until next week because at this point I don’t know who to put in his place. My other three top contenders are Forbidden Kingdom, Messier, and Epicenter, and they all stay.
Simplification had already earned enough Derby points, connections on record saying winning the Florida Derby was not that important, they just wanted a good race in him….
That’s the first time I’ve heard that ‘owner/trainer’ stated that losing a Grade 1 race was “not that important.” Made me chuckle quite a bit.
There appears to be a lot of pace in the Derby field, and what I liked about Simplification was that he won the Fountain of Youth by coming from farther back. I figured that if the leaders finished each other off, he might be the one to come on in the stretch and pick up the pieces. But he didn’t run that way yesterday, and if he chooses to go to the front, I don’t think he’s got a chance. As for his connections, I wonder if they said winning the Florida Derby was not important before or after the race. I suspect it was after.
According to Ron Flatter who appeared on Thoroughbred LA this morning, Antonio Sano told him he instructed Jose Ortiz before the race to “not spend Simplification” just to win the Florida Derby. Interestingly, history has shown that usually the winner of the KD finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep.
wow,Charge It looks so special,impressive big stride,but green.
To Steve and friends….(remember Steve’s Friend?)..Cyberknife is going into the third race of an improvement cycle, losing blinkers for “the reset” and climbing 15 points on the Beyer scale—then today—5 weeks to the Derby looks like improvement necessary–improvement coming!
Sure do – only from Slew’s Derby…
I think he ran a bazillion races …
UPDATE! He ran 15 times, I confused him with DAVE’S Friend, 76 starts!
Congratulations to today’s winners, horse and human!
Before I jump on anyone’s band wagon, I decided to take a look at the charts for the three preps. If my math is right, White Abarrio came home his last eighth in 14 1/5 seconds. Cyberknife’s time in the last eighth was 13 1/5. Tiz the Bomb ran his last eighth in 12 4/5. Granted, that was on synthetic, where races are won in a rush at the end.
Steve, you have your work cut out for you.
First, congrats to the winners of the Jeff Ruby Stakes and both the Floriday and Arkansas Derbies…nice well done. However, I believe that this year’s KY Derby Champion will come out of next Saturday’s Santa Aniita Derby whereas the race of the so far for three year olds as yet is scheduled….Forbidden Kingdom versus Messier.
Cyberknife looked good today, White Abarrio AGAON missed work, this time only days before the race! And Charge It is going to be the “wiseguy” horse—he has that stride! And to think NEXT WEEK has three more big preps, I think I have it whittled down to—seven or eight!
When I saw Brad Cox himself leading Cyberknife on to the track…..this is a large horse, getting better and better…..can ho through a tight seam….has natural speed to lay close….can go fast and hold sway……THAT’S what a Derby horse looks like!
Oh my! Got to try and watch replays of the Florida and Arkansas Derbys again. Classic Causeway had been running well but just dropped out of it so wondering if something happened to him during the race. Hard to tell but the jockey wasn’t pushing like he felt something wrong. As for White Abarrio well done!
Did anyone see why Secret Oath got shuffled so far back in the Arkansas? I couldn’t tell but when she kicked she really kicked. Not knocking Cyberknife again well done. Is it Tuesday yet?
Secret Oath was squeezed like an lemon in the Arkansas Derby in more ways that one. She was tapped out turning into the stretch which is why the Jock was forced to save any bottom she had left nearing the wire to spark her pending recovery… I believe she was that much use in the race. She might be done for a while as her connections may have made a mistake and are now are playing rest-up catch-up going into the Oaks. We’ll just see if and how she gets to the CD gate on pink day… but their choice to face colts has left it’s physical mark and may also have also made a much more serious mental mark on her. They have five weeks to recover. So… let’s just see what happens. These creatures aren’t made of science and machine that just responds to man’s ego like my Ferrari and BMW… they are a blood and bone cast in a form of art and hold a precious spirit of courage and will from above. That Jock did the right thing to protect what little she had left… and everyone’s wondering how she got passed for second. Now you know why.
What an afternoon for sons of the banished Race Day. First in the Florida Derby and second in the Arkansas Derby. The Derby Rankings are going to look very different come Tuesday morning.
Roberta, we got 1 and 2 in the Florida Derby. Enjoy your winning Dinner. Ha ha Hope you are having a great day.
My friend said she was ahead about $80 for the day. Dinner was on her, though I splurged for the vino. It was a warm and humid day, more like a Florida day in July. But the contenders look pretty good in the paddock and in the warm-ups – all things considered. I stuck with picking Pappacap, and fortunately my friend didn’t take my advice. Ha ha! She liked the eventual top three finishers so I think she used them all in various ways. She came out ahead for the race. I guess I saved her from also including Classic Causeway because of what I told her about GP first-timers in Florida Derby history. The top two look like they’ll be going to Louisville. Simplification getting passed near the wire wasn’t a good sign. From the rail it seemed they weren’t moving too fast or straight in the stretch, and from what I understand the final fraction was pretty slow. I haven’t watched the replay of the Arkansas Derby, but I sure do love the fact that a Gun Runner colt is going to be one of the top contenders in Louisville.
Fantastic Roberta, it’s the best feeling going home ahead while enjoying the races – a free gift. Nothing better. I think your friend knows a few things about handicapping.
White Abarrio seems to have the right temperament for the Kentucky Derby, is very nimble on his feet and relaxes during the race. With a good post, a real danger. Charge It ran a great race and with more experience would have given White Abarrio a tougher battle. Again, with a good post, one to watch out for. I agree, Simplification getting passed late wasn’t a good look for a future race that will extend an extra furlong.
Good luck with Cyberknife, I’d be a little concerned with his size in a 20 horse field unless he gets a clean trip but they all need luck so you never know. Next Saturday’s preps should be fascinating. I’m hoping for Zandon to shine in the Blue Grass Stakes but a good post is essential at Keeneland – luck again. Ha ha
Congrats to Saffie Joseph Jr. on an incredible job with White Abarrio…!
Let’s see how the Arkansas Derby unfolds…
Another good performance by Barber Road in the Arkansas Derby, that’s 5 in 5 in a row in Stakes races, is it not? The winner sneaks round the corner to steal the race and pinto the Derby field. Good luck trying that move in the Kentucky Derby. I never understood the fuss about Doppelgänger nor a lot of the others that were found wanting today.
We the People is not ready for this, yet.
Race Day is doing great with his third crop with White Abarrio and Barber Road being his best sons so far… I believe you have mentioned how the Stallion by Tapit was exceeding expectations this year…!
Another Sire developed by Todd Pletcher … he is beating his own record of good Stallions out of his barn.
We the People was the one with the least experience in the field… they will have to be patient with him … he will be doing better things with maturity.
Nelson, Derby fever got to the connections of We the People, three weeks was too quick between races. With Charge It, the Preakness would be a better race than the Derby. We’ll see how things turn out.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks S. may not feature horses in Derby contention but looks like the best betting opportunity among the three Derby preps this weekend.
It is curious that the Empire Maker sire line is in the bloodlines of 6 runners entered in the Jeff Ruby.
Mike Maker, who is the trainer with the most wins (6) in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes, is represented by Stolen Base at 7 to 2 ML . Tod Pletcher has won it 3 times when it was the Spiral Stakes and got two runners: Royal Spirit and Swing Shift. Royal Spirit could be benefited from a fast early run from the rail.
5-Tawny Port (6/1), 1-Royal Spirit (10/1), 3-Cabo Spirit(12/1) and 6-Great Escape(15/1) are my exotic selections to roll around the favorites… who knows Tiz the Bomb might have a bad day like the one he had in the Holy Bull…!
It would be great if someone offered a pick-3 on the three Derby prep races today. I think that bet would be very popular. The politics of Horseracing probably prevents it.
It’s very strange to me that after scratches and on their biggest day of the season, Oaklawn Park could only get as many as 10 horses in one of the 13 races. The 13th and final race still has 12 horses scheduled to compete. But, it’s still early.
Blackadder will supposedly be scratched from The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes and rerouted to The Bluegrass. I didn’t see a reason. Could it have been the wide draw in post #12? The Jeff Ruby seems like the easier spot to me. That Tim Yakteen is a fickle trainer and I haven’t yet figured out what’s going on in his head.
Sorry. Rudolphe Brisset. I can’t keep the trainers of the former BB horses straight. But, I don’t know what’s going on in Brisset’s head either.
That stride on Charge It. He looks special to me. My guy in the Florida Derby.
Hello everyone.
I watched a video of Crown Pride arriving at CHD on Wednesday.
Must say he a a very impressive looking horse, balanced, very muscular and a tremendous engine (hindquarters and hip).
Very impressed also by his conditioning. For a horse who flew to Dubai, won his race (wearing down Summer is Tomorrow) and then flying to the United States, there is not one hind of wear or tear from his travels, not one hint of a rib or as I call it, sucked up in the flank). He had on those Japanese style traveling boots that cover the entire leg, so I could not get a look at his bone structure.
In my opinion the colt has a very impressive pedigree as well (Sunday Silence, Secretariat, Seattle Slew etc). My opinion also is that is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and will have no problem getting the distance. Arriving this far in advance of the Derby will allow him plenty of time to acclimate to CHD. However compared to the training centers in Japan and the accommodations in Dubai, CHD will certainly not be what he is used to!
Wishing the Japanese connections the very best of luck as he trains up for the Derby and in the race.
Kenny McPeek changes riders on Tiz the Bomb for The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes on Saturday. Brian Hernandez takes over for Alex Achard despite Achard’s winning ride aboard Tiz the Bomb in The Battaglia Memorial which was the prep for this race. Tiz the Bomb broke from the #10 post that night and won even though he was wide the entire way around the track. With a little better trip probable from the #7 stall, I think that he can win again. If he does, let’s see if McPeek and the connections reconsider their plans to head to England for The 2000 Guineas and The Epsom Derby. With a 2 race winning streak and all those Derby points, they might catch a case of “Derby Fever”.
Do you have any info on the horse, Modern Games if he’s being pointed toward those same races over the pond?
I’m sorry. I don’t.
In the last 5 years, Johnny Velazquez has ridden the 1st place finisher in The Kentucky Derby 3 times. Including each of the last 2 years. I think that the odds are against him winning it again this year no matter what horse he lands on. On the other hand, some people might say that he has mastered The Derby and his run isn’t over yet.
Johnny is channeling his inner Calvin Borel 🙂
As I was handicapping the Oaklawn card for Saturday, I came across Navy Seal in the 13th and final race on the card. Navy Seal is to be ridden by Calvin Borel who is 0 for 30 for the year. Calvin Borel is 55 years old now and in semi-retirement, only riding about 10 horses a month. It made me look back on his “Derby run” from 2007 until 2010. In 2007 Calvin Borel won his first Derby with a beautiful ride on Street Sense. In July of 2007, he rode 6 winners on a single card at Churchill. In 2009, Calvin Borel won The Kentucky Oaks with Rachel Alexandra who was about 1-9 if I recall correctly and followed that up by “blowing up the tote board” the next day with a terrific rail-skimming ride on Mine That Bird at 75-1. He then rode his Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra to victory in The Preakness over his Derby winner Mine That Bird. By 2010, you’d hear people asking “Who’s Calvin riding?” It became a handicapping factor for The Derby. In 2010, Calvin Borel won his 3rd Derby with Super Saver. He was the talk of the town. He even got to wear a tuxedo and meet the Queen of England. I would argue that Calvin Borel’s fantastic 4 1/2-year run came to an end in November of 2010 when he went berserk at The Breeders Cup on national TV while going after Javier Castellano. The good horses dried up and a few legal troubles followed. But, Calvin Borel’s “15 minutes of fame” had lasted for 4 1/2 years. Much more than most people. His place in Kentucky Derby History will live forever.
The real story about that 13th race at Oaklawn on Saturday is that it’s a State-Bred Optional Claiming race with a purse of $106,000. Wow! Arkansas State-Breds. No wonder some top riders are sticking around to ride in the finale after such a long day of racing.
Was always fascinated by Calvin’s rise and fall. Maybe Steve wil do a story on him and Rachel, Street Sense, Super Saver and Mine that Bird.
Steve,
John takes over for Pratt on Doppelganger nearby the springs tomorrow… and I get the feeling he didn’t join the trek East to carry water for those other riders seeking that million plus and those points.
He’s been camping nearby that colt since he relocated West and as Spring arrives we know Jocks and their agents look for good young colts just like awakened bears do for food.
I’m just adding this to the preponderance of evidence from your already insightful take on the colt above. As you highlighted, his first outing is key in judging his next two. The kettles on the boil and we shan’t be called away.
White Abarrio and Charge It, well down, on to the Kentucky Derby.
Am going to put up a big (for me) wp wager on Cyberknife, in theArkansas Derby….maybe get first jump on the favored closers!
Joe Hardoon was involved in the acquisition of Cyberknife, and his father Jon Hardoon owns Champagne Poetry who is running tomorrow in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway—Steve do you know Jonathan Hardoon, of the Ragozin Sgeets? Seems like a genuinely nice man.
You nailed it, man!
Well done Matthew, what a sneaky ride by Florent Geroux.
Thank you, Cox said if Cyber had been nailed at the finish he would’ve been angry at Flo for the early move.
I like Classic Causeway to win the Florida Derby. I feel like his explosive early speed combined with latent stamina will be his greatest strength at Gulfstream.
The beautiful chestnut is undefeated this year without having to fire on all cylinders at Tampa. Perhaps this explains some speed figures not showing improvement compared to his impressive Saratoga graduation.
One perceived weakness on Classic Causeway is that he may not sustain his speed to prevail at 9 furlongs… but this can be disputed by mentioning 3 names in his lineage: Giant’s Causeway, Thunder Gulch and Temperance Hill. These three memorable champions collectively amassed fourteen Grade 1 wins at Classic distances and provide Classic Causeway with an exceptional underlying genetic gift.
The body language of Irad Ortiz after the Tampa Bay Derby tells me he is really excited about the potential of Classic Causeway. I have never seen a happiest horse on his way to the winning picture after his authoritative Tampa Bay Derby win.
If the artful Irad Ortiz is not swayed by speed figures so neither am I.
My working assumption is that Classic Causeway has improved this year and that he has won without exertion. I really love how he finishes and his energy level this year at Tampa and I believe he will be better at Gulfstream.
My $15-trifecta does not promise a big payout but I am content with a 6 to 1 ROI… one can always invert this pyramid attempting better payouts though…
Classic Causeway
Simplification/Pappacap/Charge It
Simplification/Pappacap/Charge It/ O Captain/ Strike Hard/ White Abarrio
I am not sure I will be happy putting my money on Classic Causeway but he will likely be a very happy horse running this Saturday.
Good luck with your selections this week end !
Hey Nelson
You make excellent points regarding Classic Causeway, he’s certainly one of the top contenders in the Florida Derby. In his last two starts, he earned Equibase Speed Figures of 104, which are the highest in the field. However, what’s puzzling, his Beyers are somewhat on the light side, which was an 88 in the Sam Davis, and an 84 in the Tampa Bay Derby. As a comparison, Simplification earned a 96 Beyer in the FOY, White Abarrio earned a 97 Beyer in the Holy Bull and Charge It earned a 93 Beyer breaking his maiden last out.
Needless to say, Beyer Speed Figures can be misleading, but can provide handicappers with another source to compare with other speed figures such as Equibase, Brisnet and TimeForm. Our host, Mr. Haskin, likes to throw in Thoro-Graph numbers which should be factored in as well, IMO.
That said, I remain true blue to Simplification, and consider him as the horse to beat in the Florida Derby.
By all appearances, the superfecta payout will probably on the chalky side, in which case the Super Hi-5 might be a better exotic to consider. I’ll Key Simplification on top, in the first slot, with Classic Causeway, Pappacap, Charge It and White Abarrio underneath, in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th slots. That is: 3/ 2,5,6,7/ 2,5,6,7/ 2,5,6,7/ 2,5,6,7. Cost: $24.00
Good luck with Classic Causeway.
Thanks for the reply Bill… Simplification seems to be the surest bet but I got the feeling that Irad Ortiz will be stealing the race by outsmarting his brother specially if Simplification lags a bit behind…
I agree that the Hi5 will be the better bet …
(9)-O Captain might be sneaking into the exotics. Gustavo Delgado did a great job with Majesto and Bodexpress in the Florida Derby and the son of Carpe Diem looks like following the same script … also, Joel Rosario won’t hurt at all..!
Anyways, good luck with your Hi5…it will yield a nice payout if Pappacap finishes in second place !
You’re welcome Nelson
I’ve been giving O Captain a hard look, but as they say, you can’t bet them all, with the possible exception of a PK 5 sequence.
Speaking of the PK 5, I plan on playing an inexpensive, .50 cent PK 5, at GP, (10th thru 14th races).
10th) 1,2
11th) 1,2,9
12th) 5,7
13th) ALL
14th) 3
Cost: $54.00
Oh my goodness, there are so many good horses in the Florida Derby. And all of the talented horses have good post positions. This is a wide open field with 3 top horses (White Abbario, Simplification, and Classic Causeway) and one developing talented horse competing (Charge It). It is understable that McPeek didn’t enter the Florida Derby with Smiling Happy with that talented field at Gulfstream this year.
I’ll never forget the FLorida Derby in which a horse who never won a stakes race won and then went on to win and be disqualified from the Kentucky Derby: Maximum Security. And don’t forget Todd Pletcher and his good record with horses in the Florida Derby.
Steve,
your insightful writing has long been appreciated here.
Thank you for many years of that!
There was a lot of excitement in the Tampa area about Classic Causeway.
I am surprised he did not rate higher given the depth of the track. It also sounded like Jr. did what was needed to win the two graded stakes races comfortably, and not drain the tank….impressive , not to be viewed as problematic.
I have noticed that over the years the Byers have become increasingly fluid, to the point where at times like here I connsider them to be not helpful. The numbers no longer represent what they were originally intended for.
Do you have a view to share on this ?
I put$100 on C.C in futures pool 3. Looking forward to the first Saturday in May. Admittedly not a smart bet.
The excitement builds!
Thanks again
Looking at the weather forecast for Oaklawn on Saturday, it looks to me like the rain is going to be mostly before 7am. The Arkansas Derby should be fine if they seal the track over-night. Things look a little iffy at Gulfstream. Hopefully, the rain holds off until after the races are run. As far as Turfway goes, who cares? They run on All-weather Tapeta track and the track will be perfect whatever happens. OK, maybe that’s not exactly true.
Prat is going to Saratoga because he wants to win the Eclipse Award, is going to ride Keeneland first—and he has a couple or three Derby contenders!
Roberta…channelling…Roberta…channeling…”Are you attending the Florida Derby?”…speak to us Roberta…
“Who will win the Florida Derby, Roberta?”…
Please respond, Roberta…”Are you hearing us from across the waves?”…
No response, shucks. Perhaps, some ‘psychic writing’ will come from Roberta before the race is run. We await your response, Roberta.
It worked on “Séance on a Wet Afternoon” so it should work here…the winner of the Florida Derby is…?
Ha ha ha! David’s, I’m often here reading Steve’s column and all of the comments. But I rarely post because I don’t have too much to say. As for wet afternoons, I live in South Florida so I’m accustomed to that. Seances not so much, but I could be amused. Here I am though. There must be something to it.
I am so excited about the Florida Derby on Saturday. Of course I’m going! Ha ha! This field is right up there with the Risen Star in terms of quality. I’m concerned about White Abarrio because of the layoffs. But he sure does like Gulfstream Park! Classic Causeway has the disadvantage of being the only top contender who hasn’t run at Gulfstream. So the obvious choice is Simplification…Right? So I may go with a rebounding Pappacap. Steve made a good case for him and he has shown up at 10-1 in the morning line. He’s been lights out at the Casse training center ever since his baffling race at Fair Grounds.
In my experience going to the Florida Derby, I’d say that the track is fair to all kinds of runners. Maybe one of the great record keepers here might verify that. Pappacap should be in his usual stalking position. The question is whether he has a good enough closing kick to out-finish some outstanding runners. It’s interesting to note that his jockey is Edwin Gonzalez, who rode Pappacap in his winning debut at Gulfstream Park 10 months ago.
Good luck to you and all the wonderful contributors!
Hey, Roberta! I like your analysis of the top contenders. I’m not one of those “great record keepers,” but I did just look at all of the Fla Derby charts since 2000. Here’s the breakdown:
Frontrunners (leading after 4f) = 6
Pressers (within 2 lengths after 4f) = 7
Stalkers (2 to 5 lengths behind leader at 4f) = 3
Closers (more than 5 lengths behind leader at 4f) = 6
As far as the Fla Derby goes, the track seems to be fair to all types of runners. If we combine the pressers and stalkers, they have a slight advantage. Enjoy the day!
I don’t know if there is an edge to closers, or that horses with speed are just a little bit better….
I said that wrong…meant to say edge to speed types, or speed just is better—when you look at great horses, most had some speed.
At any track, if I had a stable of one horse, I would choose a horse with good early speed (all other factors being equal — which they never are!).
I feel Gulfstream allows the ‘truly’ brilliant runners to exploit there talent more so than simply speed bias, if you take my meaning.
The average speed horse gets a slight lift, however, closers are also getting a better run because the field opens up for them. To a certain extent.
Thank you so much, EddieF. I kind of expected numbers like that. However, it’s a bit surprising that the first two groups, frontrunners and pressers, have won 13 of 22 races. Pappacap is capable of being within 2 lengths of the leader after four furlongs. I like him even more after reading your post.
Interesting statistics, I would guess that it’s sprint races where the Gulfstream ‘speed bias’ track belief comes into play more than it does with route races like the Florida Derby. Good work.
Thanks, Davids. There’s an irrefutable speed bias in one-turn races at GP. Two-turn races…well, not so much, mainly because there aren’t enough races at longer distances to identify a bias over the course of a meet.
Ah, excellent, Roberta. Firstly, do you think rain is going to be a problem or will there be just enough moisture to keep the track on the good side? Usually, Gulfstream us good no matter what. On the dirt anyway. You have an all weather track as a back up for the turf so all is good.
I wish I was there but the internet coverage is almost as good. Like yourself, I’m a little weary of White Abarrio’s mini problems- they can mount up. Even so. Charge It is the colt that has my attention, a ‘star is born’ performance wouldn’t surprise. As you say, it’s a good field and the Florida Derby winners/places usually make a noise at Churchill Downs.
This weekend is sky high with top class racing so there’s to complain about, unless your horses don’t show up. Ha ha That’s life!! It’s Friday here in Melbourne with summer going into fall. We’re off to see “Hamilton: An American Musical” tonight which will be fabulous. The New York ‘Original Broadway’ was simply outstanding but you can’t fail anywhere with the cleverness and musicality of the writing/production. Champagne anyone!! Ha ha
Have a great day at Gulfstream and hopefully, your friend will cash in so you can celebrate the day even more. Good luck, have fun!!
Davids, it’s impossible to predict the weather in South Florida. Forecasts are mostly useless. If we have light rain all afternoon it could present a problem. The Florida Derby is scheduled to go off at 6:38. I’m going to have a good time regardless. And dinner will be on my friend if she wins her bet. Dinner will be on me if she loses because I’ll have been the one to have given her the selection. Ha ha! I know you’ll enjoy the race from wonderful Melbourne. Charge It is a fine-looking colt. I believe that his up-and-coming trainer has won the Florida Derby once or twice. LOL. Good luck!
Roberta, it’s going to be a fabulous day of racing no matter what and, although the weather is unpredictable, the weather forecast is looking better already. Fingers crossed your friend picks quite a few winners so you can have champagne with dinner to celebrate. Ha ha
The Florida Derby appears to be wide open, but you’ll have the benefit of seeing the runners close up. I’m excited already, have a wonderful day of racing. Best of luck.
Hey Steve,
Love your column every week!
What are your thoughts on cyberknife in the Arkansas? Interesting that Geroux stayed on him over lower ML odds on we the people.
Thanks Nick, hes been tough to train but is stating to put it all together. Hell have to improve but this is when 3yos improve, cant ignore him
Epicenter is a deserving number one Derby contender after his impressive performance in the Louisiana Derby. The son of Not This Time confirmed that he is not a unidimensional speedster the cue Steve was waiting to see. I am pretty sure that with a bit more urging Epicenter could have equated the North American record of 1:52.55 for the 1 3/16 mile…
As imposing as Epicenter is I am still seeing Messier as the best 3-year-old in the country. I believe he has the right conformation, running style and genetics for the Classics. We have already discussed how his time in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was more than a second faster than the standard for all the 1 1/16-Stakes ran at Santa Anita this year. Also covered extensively here is his influential Sam-Son female family.
This time I would like to touch on the presence of Messier’s sire, Empire Maker, in the Derby scene.
Empire Maker, who was the even money favorite in the 2003 Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, has been present in many Derbies since 2009. Below are the descendants of Empire Maker who participated in the Derby per year.
2021: Mandaloun (1st) and Rock your World (Santa Anita Derby winner) are both maternal grandsons of Empire Maker.
2019: Bodexpress (Bodemeister by Empire Maker). Venezuelan Trainer Gustavo Delgado took him to the Derby as a maiden after a runner-up effort in the Florida Derby as a 71-to-1 longshot !
2017: Two sons of Pioneerof the Nile by Empire Maker: Always Dreaming (1st) and Classic Empire (unlucky 4th )
2016: Outwork (maternal grandson of Empire Maker), Wood Memorial G1 winner
2015: American Pharoah (1st) TC Champion by Pioneerof the Nile by Empire Maker.
2012: Bodemeister by Empire Maker (2nd )
2009: Pioneerof the Nile by Empire Maker (2nd)
There were no Empire Maker’s descendants in the 2020 Derby as Thousand Words (by Pioneerof the Nile by Empire Maker) was scratched after an incident in the Paddoc; and Eight Rings (by Empire Maker) was among the early favorites.
So, as you note that Empire Maker is in the family of three Derby winners and the sire of two runner-up horses in 7 Derbies, you may very well allow me to expect that one of his descendants is due to win the Roses.
I was always willing to take the risk of a shock in Messier’s training. That risk of disruption is somehow mitigated by confiding Messier to a trainer who is conversant with Baffert method.
Can’t wait to see the powerful Messier validating his standing as a top Derby contender by defeating Forbidden Kingdom again in the Santa Anita Derby.
Nelson, that’s a nice review of the late Empire Maker’s influence in the Derby. Didn’t he go to Japan for several years of stud service? That certainly cut into his North American stallion record.
As old timers might say about Empire Maker in the pedigree… It may not help, but it won’t hurt!
Thanks EddieF. That is a good point … Empire Maker went to Japan in November 2010 and returned to America in September 2015. The repatriation was possible because of the devaluation of the Yen and motivated by Pioneerof the Nile producing American Pharoah.
Empire Maker sired 14 Stakes horses from his 2017-2018 and 2019 crops being the salient ones Eight Ring and now Messier.
The son of Unbridled is emerging as a remarkably good Broodmare Sire…
In the past 20+ years, Derby 2nd-place finishers Summer Squall, Pioneerof the Nile, and Bodemeister produced Derby winners. That’s so much better than the number of Derby WINNERS producing Derby winners in the past 20+ years: 0. 🙂
Nice post EF. Take it back even further in years with regards to Derby winners and I think there’s only a couple. In the 90’s, Unbridled/Grindstone then the 80’s Seattle Slew/Swale.
Thank you, Liam. Actually, there was a good run of Derby winners siring Derby winners from 1932-1963. Nine to be precise. There’s likely a logical statistical reason for that, so I’ll wait for the breeding experts to chime in.
Good observation EddieF.
We should include Alydar among the Stallions who were avenged through their progeny…
Props to you on postings like this. The research involved is extensive, accurate and appreciated. Thanks.
Thanks Liam … it is my pleasure to share personal information I keep in my KD working folder.
The last future wager starts tomorrow. Has anyone seen a field?
Delayed a week
I understand the change if betting closes before the big preps of April 9. But if it continues through the running of the races, how much difference will there be between FW odds and post-time Derby odds? Very little I would think. And certainly not enough difference when considering what could happen in the final four weeks of the trail.
Tell it to Churchill. When do they do anything right?
They make nice mint julep glasses.
I was sorry to see Blackadder draw the far outside post position in The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes. With his late running style, maybe it won’t matter. I was happy to see Edwin Maldonado named to ride. He does a pretty good job when he gets a chance on decent horses. Good to see them stick with him rather than going to a big name rider.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes has a purse of $600,000. Not bad for horses that are maybe just a cut below the best. The Florida Derby is worth $1million and The Arkansas Derby $1,250,000. I know that Kenny McPeek says that Tiz the Bomb is heading to Europe, but won’t it be very tempting for the connections to run in The Kentucky Derby if he wins again on Saturday? Maybe he would have to win very big to change their minds.
Cyberknife, at 8-1, and Pappacap at 10-1 are both flying under the radar!
I was wrong about The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes. That’s actually a daytime card with The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes being run as the 12th and last race on the card with a scheduled post time of 6:23pm EST. I think that Pool#5 of The Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes at 6pm on Saturday. Just before The Arkansas Derby(6:35pm) & The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes(6:23pm) are run. I’m not sure what the post time for The Florida Derby is, but I have a feeling that it will be after 6pm. I could be wrong. I probably won’t bet any horses in the Future Wager. Just a few exacta boxes.
I just checked the Churchill Downs website and it says that Pool#5 has been postponed with new date TBA. It probably has something to do with the Tim Yakteen/BB horses. Wouldn’t it be great to have a Triple Crown season with no DQs or controversies?
In past years, it usually comes down to “Best in the East, vs Best in the West”, but not this year. After Epicenter’s epic perfromance in the Louisiana Derby, he has to be considered the “Best in the MId-West. So in my view, with respect to which region of the country is likely to produce this year’s Kentucky Derby winner, look no further than the East. Let’s examine the top Derby contenders from those three regions.
East: Simplification, (top contender), White Abarrion, Classic Causeway, Morello, Smile Happy, Early Voting, Emmanuel, Mo Donegal and Zandon.
West: Messier, (top contender), Forbidden Kingdom, Doppelganger, Slow Down Andy and Pappacap
Mid-West: Epicenter, (top contender), Zozos, Secret Oath, We the People, Cyberknife and Barber Road.
So there you have it, East (9 contenders) vs West (5 contenders) vs Mid-West (6 contenders)
Those 20 hores “could” make up the Kentucky Derby field.
Remaining major Derby prep races, with predicted winners;
Florida Derby: Simplification
Arkansas Derby: Barber Road
Wood Memorial: Morello
Blue Grass: Smile Happy
Santa Anita Derby: Messier
Note: I don’t consider the Jack Ruby Steaks or the Lexington as “major” Derb prep races.
That said, my prediction for this year’s Kentucky Derby winner: SIMPLIFICATION!
Now that you’ve nailed down the 20-horse Kentucky Derby Field, can you give us the post positions? Just kidding. I’ll bet that you are pretty close on your 20-horse field. Though a few horses usually drop out in the last couple of weeks for various reasons.
If Pappacap wins the Derby i doubt anyone is going claim victory for the west
After Pappacap broke his maiden at GP, Mark Casses shipped him West for 4 graded races; the G2 Best Pal (1st), the G1 Del Mar Futurity (4th), the G1 American Pharoah (2nd) and the G1 BC Juvenile (2nd). Subsequently, he was shipped to the Fair Grounds for the G3 Lecomte Stakes (3rd), and the G2 Risen Star (8th).
Now he’s back at GP entered in the Florida Derby (where he broke his maiden).
Let’s tally that up:
4 graded races in the West (Del Mar & Santa Anita)
2 graded races in the Mid-West (both at the Fair Grounds)
1 maiden race at GP.
When you stated “If Pappacap wins the Derby I doubt anyone is going cliam victory for the west.
Just out of curiosity, what region of the county would place Pappacap, West, Mid-West or East?
Thanks Steve.
Regions are not cumulative over two years. It’s all about 3. He’s trained by an Eastern trainer who just sent him to California for 4 races last year after starting his career in the east because the BC was out there and he’s been training in Florida all year. If you want to consider him a California horse Im sure not gonna stop you. Its not that important.
Thanks for the reply Steve
Based on your comment, suffice to say Pappacap belongs in the East region.
I will edit my comment to change his region from the West to the East.
Hey TommyMc
I’m sure you noticed I have the word could in quotes. Obviously, several of those 20 horses that I mentioned will make the Derby field, but all 20, not likely. As long as Simplification, Classic Causeway, White Abarrio, Emmanuel and Epicenter make the Derby field I’ll be very happy. I’ve got big Futures win bets, and exacta bets on all 5 of the afore mentioned colts.
Simplification; $100 to win at 65-1, $100.00 to win at 43-1 and boxed him with ALL in my $2.00 exacta wagers in Pool 2.
Emmanuel; $50.00 to win at 75-1.
Best case scenairo for me, Simplification wins and White Abarrio (at 171-1) comes in second. I’d collect close to $18,000.00.
Fingers crossed. 🙂
I like the way you categorize the Derby Battle…
Florida Derby: Classic Causeway
Arkansas Derby: Secret Oath
Wood Memorial: Early Voting
Blue Grass: Zandon
Santa Anita Derby: Messier
Jeff Ruby: Blackadder
And my prediction for this year’s Kentucky Derby winner: MESSIER!
Thanks for the reply Nelson Maan
At least we agree that Messier will win the SA Derby. You’re other Derby prep race predictions are top notch horses.
I’m feeling some bad vibs on Secret Oath running against the boys in the Arkansas Derby. I pray she doesn’t over-extend herself, and comes out of the race in good order.
Edit to above comment.
Based on what Steve Haskin said regarding which region of the country that Pappacap belongs, I’ll move him out of the West, and place him in the East. No big deal.
After a quick look at the Ark Derby PPs, my attention was drawn to Un Ojo (6-1 ML), the highest-level winner in the field. It’s his third start after a 7-week layoff, so he should be at the top of his form cycle. I don’t recall reading anything about Barber Road’s 21-day delay in returning to training after the Rebel. That hasn’t been the modus operandi for Ortiz with Barber Road.
BTW, Epicenter earned a 101 Brisnet speed rating for the La Derby. From the Gun Runner to Saturday’s race: 90, 93, 98, 101. I don’t know his Late Pace number, but I expect it to be huge considering his monster final 3/16th.
That’s a great rising numbers pattern. Exactly what I like to see going into The Derby. His only negative is the 6 weeks off until race day.
“…starts his antics…looks like a mess…entertaining…does everything unconventionally…” Made me laugh, but I had the same reaction watching him at Sunland.
Dont forget…wins ugly. Lol
I’ve been laughing at your descriptions of this funny horse, too !! Extra bonus in his name .. wonder who is Andy !
Would be fun hearing him run with Hot Rod Charlie ~LOLOL
THANKS, Steve (Surely there’s a horse with your namesake coming along)
Well, I just can’t resist. Epicenter really did shake things up!
Put him in a catastrophic exacta with Volcanic.
That would be funny if it weren’t so true this year!
Funny regardless! 🙂
Too funny! I was actually thinking of Rattle and Roll.
…then Charge It.
Where can I watch Doppelganger’s March 20 workout in 1:10?
Check XBTV
I checked XBTV and the 70″ 4/5-workout is not there…!
Perhaps a specific twitter account may have a figment of that phenomenal workout.
I checked XBTV, Twitter and YouTube but couldn’t find it 🙁
I was going to bet We The People, but the combination of that workout and the upgrade to Velasquez has me thinking Doppelgänger on top. Just wish I could see the workout to confirm.
Oops! The post below was supposed to be in response to Nelson’s awesome overview…!
Comprehensive overview of the remaining horses opportunities to get into the Derby gate. Thanks! At this point I usually look for non-favorites that can surprise in the 100 point prep races and get live horses at overlaid odds into the Derby. It looks like Ethereal Road, at 80-1 currently, has a pretty good chance to make the Derby, and would probably be less than 80-1 after a good finish in the Bluegrass. Grantham is currently 300-1, so ditto for him if he should surprise. McLaren Vale at 120-1 with an upset qualifies. The only other nice-looking odds is Simplification at 18-1 at Circa…
Thanks Biggy… the fact that the already qualified horses are not under great pressure to win their respective tune ups might open the door for nice longshots…
Nice handicapping opportunities this weekend indeed…
Nelson, with so few races under their saddlecloths and so much time between preps, Derby hopefuls need big performances just prior to the Derby. I think the days of true prepping are over.
Trainers dont look at preps as preps anymore. I believe, in general, the goal is now to get IN the Derby more than winning it.
Yup, the road to qualifying has changed, but there have always been connections who just wanted to be there.
Whatever you you think of Baffert he always trains to win the Derby. Like the great trainers of the past, the horses that could withstand their training came to Churchill Downs fit and tough. No other trainer could get a horse like Justify to win the Derby and Triple Crown with only 3 starts and such a late start. If a Baffert horse makes it to CD they are fit and tough. Most horses who get there are not prepared for such an arduous race.
Absolutely true! Only five of his 34 starters didn’t finish first or second in their final prep. Plus he’s had 7 first-place Derby finishes in the 21 Derbies in which he’s competed. Only Ben Jones was better of those trainers with 10 or more Derbies. Jones was 6 for 10!!
Agree about Bob. He trains to win and kept what he learned on the QH tracks and applied it. Even then you still need some racing luck and he didn’t always get it.
Yes Steve… that is a true characterization of Baffert’s practice.
What I will never understand is why some people don’t recognize that more than 25 years of success and developing more than 20 champions (Twelve 3-y-old and six 2-y-old Champions) can be only be achieved thanks to hard work, artful training methods, discipline and true passion.
There is a minority that relates success with cheating… I even see people hating Irad Ortiz and Flavian Pratt without any logical reasoning aside from them winning a lot of races… go figure!
Those haters should watch the Rocky movies to understand the outcomes of hard training … but they will be accusing Rocky of winning because he drinks a lot of Red Bull…
“Chariots of Fire” for me. Ha ha
Several crash and burn.
Nelson, are u serious? Irad is reckless! I never ignore obvious regarding dubious barns, concern remains w/ horse welfare……. PERIOD!
He leans on horses.
I never understand the criticism of any trainer for training hard to get to the Derby. I can’t think of any top athlete, human or equine, that reached the top rung without hard training. Does anyone think Usain Bolt did it on talent alone without hard training? Jordan? James?
It takes training hard to reach the top rung in any athletic endeavor. Many human athletes can’t stand up to rigorous training either. We just never hear about them
Sure!
Since ‘Richard’ and Al slammed Mandella when FK had fever, disappeared regarding BB’s horse coming down w/ a fever also. MIA!!!! lmao
Al and richard are the same person …
Hard training doesn’t mean RUINING most of your prospects and using anti-inflammatories …
BL, agree!
Give the BobLove a rest, Steve. He churns through 80 two year olds a year, and ruins many of them. He has over 90 deaths in his barn over the years. He is a cheating, lying con man and you need to wake up and stop thinking he is your bestie ….
Assuming that the Japanese Crown Pride is coming, there are 11 more slots available and at least 24 aspirants to fill them by running in the remaining six 100-point-preps.
The Japanese horsemen should be encouraged by their wave of international successes since last Breeder’s Cup to bring UAE Derby victor Crown Pride to Kentucky. His time for the 1 3/16 mile was 4 seconds slower than Mendelssohn’s track record but the track was riding really slow. Country Grammar’s time of about 125 seconds for the 1¼ mile was similarly roughly 4 seconds slower than the track record.
It looks like UAE Derby runner-up, Summer Is Tomorrow (40 points), is not coming as the $6,000 payment due yesterday was not reported to have happened …
Anyways, among notable horses needing at least 40 points (for second place) are Messier (Santa Anita Derby), Secret Oath (Arkansas Derby), Charge It (Florida Derby), Doppelganger, We the People and Cyberknife. The last three prospects seem to have a tough challenge in the Arkansas Derby.
The massive McLaren Vale is an interesting horse who will have to contend with the top two horses in California facing-off in the Santa Anita Derby. The son of Gun Runner might sneak into Derby field if Forbidden Kingdom or Messier come up with a subpar performance.
Blackadder and Great Escape appear to be favored to get bargain points in the Jeff Ruby Steaks for Rodolphe Brisset.
Zandon who has been Steve’s second horse until this week got 14 points and needs at least a third place in the Blue Grass to be borderline (with 34 points above Pioneer of Medina). On the other hand, the other top horse, Smile Happy, could be qualifying even with a fifth place in that Keeneland prep.
I would love to see Early Voting confirming his class in the Wood Memorial and getting at least 40 points there. Mo Donegal with 12 points accrued could get his Derby ticket with even a third place in the Wood (20 points).
If you take 30 points as the threshold to be in the Derby then Grantham and Ethereal Road only need to get a 5th place in the Blue Grass.
In my mind any horse not named here would be a shocking entry in the Run for the Roses.
Nelson, your post was fun to read but I feel you are getting way too far ahead of yourself. We only have the field for the Arkansas Derby thus far. Post draws can influence and impact on very unexpected results. Hold your powder until it’s absolutely necessary.
A day can be a long time during the Derby Trail.
If I am getting too far ahead what could you say about people putting their hard earned money in Future betting since November last year.
Davids I understand your position but you should also understand that some of us find very entertaining and even deliciously challenging to first divining the lucky 20 and then try to guess the Trifecta in the Derby… In my mind Steve’s rankings during 16 weeks are precisely attempting to get those two estimates… otherwise, we would just wait until week 16 on May 2 to post anything here.
I just wanted to share my excel file monitoring Steve’s sweet 16 every week in tandem with the tracking of the Standings… a table I posted before was well received by some and this time I decided to verbalize it…Anyways, I accept your suggestion but still I feel I like I am able to share whatever is my working folder thanks to the kind and open nature of this forum…
Nelson, the comment wasn’t meant to be a critique. As Madonna warbled away, go ahead and “express yourself” it adds to the fun of Steve’s Derby Rankings.
Hey, Nelson. Thanks for your take on possible entries for the Derby. I tend to agree with Davids that it’s fun to consider all of that, but that it ultimately can lead us into a dead end. Think about previous years when horses among the points leaders dropped off the list due to illness, injury, or subpar performance. Defections then allow horses with low point totals to earn a place in the Derby gate. (See last year when Brooklyn Strong got in with 10 points.) We have several 170-point preps still to go. Anything can happen…anything!
Also, you wrote about 30 points being necessary for entry this year. It seems that much less than 30 will be enough. But even if we consider 30 points as the goal, Smile Happy already has enough. BTW, a fifth-place finish in a Derby prep gets a horse NO points.
Thanks for spotting the typo … it is 4th place instead of 5th …!
I never objected all the conversations around Future bets despite me disliking those bold speculations.
The post is a personal (funny? entertaining? useless?) activity I just decided to share here …many would like it others don’t…at least I am in better terms than Will Smith’s…
I was about to mention in the post the good news of not having injuries in the 2022 Derby Trail… it was good I didn’t because the news today that Shipsational got an inflammation in his right ankle would have made me a jinx…!
Nelson, I agree that the Futures Wager can be a bottomless pit. But not always. As I said, it’s fun to think about because, well…How can you not think about it if you’re a Derby fan? In the FW, you may be betting on one or two hopefuls. All you have to worry about is the horse maintaining his form and health until May. That’s all. 😉 The entry box predictions, though also fun, at the end of March will always be wrong. I do believe that throwing my hard-earned money at the FW is foolish, and that’s why I typically bet $5 or $10 on just one or two horses at high odds. Last year was a major exception with four horses — maybe it was five — at $5 each. Close but no cigar with one of them. Besides, we don’t know one way or the other whether the people’s posted amounts are hard earned, the amounts stated, or real money at all.
I enjoy reading your speculations and all your other excellent contributions, and I always look forward to a lively exchange. To summarize, I find that trying to predict the points outcome is impossible, though by my earlier comment I’m expecting a lower point total than you are for the final entrant. I don’t have a specific prediction, but I have an idea of a reasonable over/under. (No! Not another bet.) If I were to say 20 points or 10 points, or even the dreaded 13 points, and you said 30, what are the chances either of us would be right? And which horses of a few dozen make the gate? Fuhgeddaboutit! That’s my take on the subject and you may fire away when ready!
Thanks for the reply. Just to reiterate… I am not trying to predict the exact points but the possible 20 which, of course, entails having an idea of the first four in the last preps. Then it is to me a game of filling slots in my spreadsheet covering different scenarios… playing these would answer the question i.e. of Smile Happy and Pioneer of Medina getting in.
Again, some people may be doing the same thing which may or may not trigger an amusing exchange… still entertaining to me.
It is obvious that no one can predict injuries or the impact of final Post Positions but that does not preclude having fun trying to put forward 8 or 9 candidates to fill the Derby gate.
Bill Dawson is in the same wave length and I gladly replied to his nice post about forecasting prep outcomes…
P.S. That you were THINKING about discussing potential injuries may be precisely why Shipsational developed inflammation in his right ankle.
;-:
Eddie, feeling sorrow for Ship and Mr. Barker. He deserving.
It was reported today that Summer Is Tomorrow was nominated to the Triple Crown Series after paying the late fee …
Epicenter at #1 is exactly right. He can do it all. His last race was very impressive. I would have
Forbidden Kingdom at #2 and Messier at#3. Both really good horses. I am putting White Abarrio
at #4 because I like him and then Smile Happy at #5 because as you noted, Steve, he hasn’t raced
recently enough for us to know how good he is. I liked what i saw last time out. Simplification, Morello
and Classic Causeway-not sure where they belong yet. The next few weeks will tell us more
as far as the boys go.
I am not all in on Secret Oath running in the Derby unless she is the second coming of Rachel Alexandra
and Zenyatta. Even if she wins the Arkansas Derby lights out, the Derby group will be so much better than
who she is racing in the Arkansas Derby. But D. Wayne Lukas is a risk taker and sometimes it pays off.
@ four, RA- in decline as consequence of rough campaign. Zen, had wonderful owners/barn. Huge difference!
The stat the jumps out for me is that Pappacap has raced in 6 straight graded races. With much focus on lightly raced and possibly unseasoned entries moving forward, I’d have to think he’s battled tested and I’m willing to toss the last debacle since in those 6 graded raced he has a win, 2 2nd’s and a 3rd. I enjoy your weekly list of rankings and especially partial to the knocking on the door section. Thank you.
If you want to be the boss find the right race to toss.
I have utmost admiration and respect for anyone able to recognize his or her real passion and make it a dream job.
You ought to love how Steve touched the undying passion of Saffie Joseph for his profession. I am sure the young Trainer is exercising all his sapience over White Abarrio’s preparation. He needs a win or a placing in the Florida Derby to be in the Kentucky Derby and to do so the son of Race Day will have to deal with a trio of solid contenders: Simplification and Classic Causeway who have already qualified, and the brilliant Charge It who seems to be the best Derby card for Pletcher.
Steve also made a persuasive (horseplayer) argument for Pappacap in the Florida Derby. The son of Gun Runner will be positively putting behind his Risen Star fiasco if he runs true to his three subsequent bullets at Casse Training Center. Perhaps Gulfstream setting is conducive to a surprising rebound to please longshot seekers.
By the way, I appreciate the exclusive information about Emmanuel’s next race and Commanderperformance taking a respite… I could not find these confirmations elsewhere… The last five weeks of rankings should be even more enlightening when it comes to assessing the final preps.
Steve’s scouting is really aiding all his readers in painting a complete picture of the march of things in the Derby trail.
Thanks Nelson I hope so
Shouldn’t you say that “the young trainer is exercising all his SAFFIENCE”? 😉
Not that they are planning to take on males—but in my opinion the last two races by Adare Manor are the best pair of wins of any three year old this year–
Hey Steve..and everyone else..just aside from this topic worth noting Today March 29th..
>>MAN O’ WAR’s BIRTHDAY!!! & Tomorrow is SECRETARIAT’s!!~ I still say going back to at least 1900–‘Can’t get much better than these TWO! 😉
Maybe CY or KELSO or SLEW would be only others in the mention~ Honorable mentions. Very much so.
That’s quite a birthday double.
Doppelganger is not the typical BB Derby horse that goes to the lead and keeps going. He’s not even a Silver Charm type. Doppelganger drops back to midpack before making his run which could be a great style for a Derby that as of today looks like it will have plenty of speed. In his Maiden-breaker at Los Alamitos, he drew the rail and was bumped out of the gate. But, he got a great set-up as 4 horses lined up on the lead along with a great ride from Flavien Prat for a visually impressive win. They pushed him right into the Grade II San Vicente where he went off as the 4-5 favorite and was beaten pretty easily by Forbidden Kingdom which is no disgrace because of forbidden Kingdom’s pace advantage. The fact that he couldn’t get by barn-mates Pinehurst and McLaren Vale is a negative IMO. His last race was in the Grade II San Felipe when he broke just a little slowly, but really had no chance because no one was beating Forbidden Kingdom that day. As Steve Haskin points out, Doppelganger was able to make up a few lengths on Forbidden Kingdom, but Forbidden Kingdom was on cruise control and was never threatened IMO. Doppelganger shows up at Oaklawn, described by Steve Haskin as BB’s playground. Doppelganger takes off the blinkers for this race. Interestingly, Tim Yakteen’s stat with that move is 60%. Is Yakteen’s stat relevant? IDK. Whatever, Doppelganger’s last 2 workouts clearly show that Yakteen/BB mean business with this trip to Arkansas. Doppelganger stacks up real well on numbers. Second only to the filly Secret Oath. Is he good enough? I’m not sure. I have mixed feelings about him. As an April foal, this could be his time to improve bigtime.
I was originally attracted to Cyberknife who was DQ’d from a win in his first start at Churchill before losing to Classic Moment in his second start at Churchill. Classic Moment disappointed in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and twice in New Mexico after that. Not a good sign. After breaking his Maiden for “the second time” at Fairgrounds, Cyberknife was beaten badly by Call Me Midnight, Epicenter, and Pappacap in The Lecomte. Cyberknife does have a real nice stalking style that plays well anywhere. But, I don’t see him as The Derby winner and maybe not even a Derby horse.
The interesting horse in The Arkansas Derby is We the People. By Constitution and out of a Tiznow mare, We the People is perfect in only 2 starts and if he can improve again in start #3, he could give this group some trouble. It’s a huge step up into the Grade I Arkansas Derby. Maybe trainer Rudolphe Brisset and WinStar Farm really like what they have here. A couple of sharp works since raced add to the appeal and picking up Flavien Prat to ride can’t hurt. We the People won at a mile in his very first race which is difficult to do and usually signals a good horse. I’m going to watch his replays again.
After watching We the People’s replays again, I really like the looks of this guy. I think that he will improve again. He likes to run right on the flank of a pacesetter and he really turns it on in the stretch. The concerns are drawing the far outside post, the huge step up in Class, and Flourent Geroux landing on Cyberknife. But, as I said, Flavien Prat is a great replacement rider. If We the People can get his preferred position on the flank of Kavod going into the first turn, he is going to be tough to pass in the stretch. Maybe Secret Oath can pass him since she loves that Oaklawn track so much, but I’m not sure that Doppelganger can. He just has to beat Cyberknife to “the cat-bird seat” going into the first turn. As the 3rd and maybe even 4th favorite in the race, I plan to risk a few bucks on We the People on Saturday.
What impressed me in his two races is how strong he was galloping out after the race. This horse loves to run.
Cyberknife HAS to run well to qualify—I know the owners and trainer think highly of him, he is a head case, and there is a lot of upside—he might be well worth a play!
JUST TO LET EVERYONE KNOW I WILL BE AWAY THIS WEEKEND, SO NEXT WEEK’S DERBY RANKINGS WILL BE POSTED ON TUESDAY, HOPEFULLY EARLY IN THE MORNING. HARD TO BELIEVE ONLY ONE MORE WEEKEND OF PREPS AFTER THAT AND WE SHOULD FINALLY KNOW WHO THE REAL DERBY HORSES ARE.
Steve, do we have a stand out deep closer yet?
Seems like there is no such thing anymore. We’ll see how Smile Happy and Simplification run. But they could be much closer. There are true closers but none are standouts.
Good point. I guess I have a soft spot for them because they are at such a disadvantage in the derby. True underdogs.
Deep closers are still good bets to fill out the second and third slots.
Steve an absolute pleasure to read your thorough columns. My one quibble is with We the People who I thought was quite impressive in his second lifetime start and should be virtually the next horse up to be ranked. His final time at a mile and a sixteenth was almost the same as the G2 Azeri later that day at Oaklawn. His breeding would suggest the Derby distance is within his scope. Not sure his next step but his latest breeze that you mentioned was excellent. While I have the utmost respect for trainers Pletcher and Casse I’ll be surprised if any of their charges get any piece with the possible exception of the aptly named Charge It.
Thank you very much. He very well could be the next horse to be ranked. I wrote extensively about him and Charge It a couple of weeks ago. At this late date I cant rank horses with only two lifetime starts and no stakes appearances. But both those horses would be ranked if they run well in their stakes debuts.
Steve:
I just love the derby rankings, but I loved it more when you were on the radio talking about it every week. I miss it. Thanks always for your insight and historical perspectives.
Thank you Jonathan, I appreciate it. I had done the show with Steve since he started in 2006 and two years before that with JJ Graci. After all those years it just was enough and I needed a break.
In the past 20 years of the Derby, 10 favorites have been at 4-1 or higher at post-time. Four have won. If you had bet $2 on each of the 10 for a total of $20, the return would have been $46.20. Not bad for playing favorites, right?
I can’t recall any recent year heading into April when there were so many TOP contenders with good early speed like there are now. As a result, Smile Happy, the new and improved Simplification, Zandon, Secret Oath, Mo Donegal, and the Road brothers Barber and Ethereal are in a good position to take advantage of a quick and contentious pace.
The 2022 Derby pace will depend on Mandella’s colt being in the field, if Messier trounced him he won’t be there…I’m hoping he does well enough in the SA Derby to enter….
FK is certainly an x factor, but I don’t believe the pace scenario is tied to him exclusively. At least for now!
Thank you Steve for all your hard work! Hard to believe this is week 11 already. I’ve read every column several times and the information they contain are extraordinary. I’ve followed you for many years and your information has always been spot on. This derby season has been particularly difficult to digest with the sanctions, the lightly raced horses and the points system. Still haven’t developed my own list. But I’m starting to think that this might be Asmussen’s year. WHITE ABARRIO is a great story and I wish him the best. Thanks again.
Thank you very muck Kenny. I appreciate it.
You’re welcome. The derby has held a special part in my heart because of my father. He smoked a pipe and Kentucky Club tobacco was one of his favorites. Back in the sixties they ran a promotion for naming a colt eligible for the derby. We sent a name in every year after careful discussion that the whole family participated in. Our suggestions were never used but we had a lot of fun. The first triple crown race I went to was to watch Secretariat win the Preakness. What a horse. I had a $2.00 win ticket on him that I didn’t cash. Unfortunately I lost it during a move. Lol.
That wasnt my first Triple Crown race but it was my first Preakness. I take it you have been to the Derby since then
It’s been awhile. Hopefully this year. Last one was when Mine that Bird won with Calvin Borail.
Steve, I’d love to read your thoughts of watching Secretariat in that Preakness? How do describe him in that race? Regarding Epicenter, I thought he expended very little in the La. Derby and had a lot in the tank as he crossed the line. Disappointed about Rattle n Roll. I was really hopeful about him.
“Whatever he does in the Wood, [Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Jeff Ruby Steaks], will not surprise me.” – Steve Haskin
I agree Steve, and quoting Shakespeare (King Lear) – “Many a true word hath been spoken in jest.” You’re in good company here, Steve. Honestly, nothing would surprise in the results this Saturday’s Derby Preps and beyond for that matter.
Who I think are the most talented in each race – Charge It, We the People, God of Love – doesn’t particularly convince me that they are actually going to win. Nor, if they actually win, that they should head for Churchill Downs, post-haste.
Charge It and We the People seem way too inexperienced to go ‘rumbling in the jungle’ at Louisville but that’s yesterday’s thinking, I know. At least God Of Love won’t go to Churchill Downs even if he does win.
This year has been too topsy-turvy for me to actually settle on one colt, Zandon would be the pick but who knows if he is even going to make the cut. The Blue Grass Stakes is like Russian roulette for quite a few runners. Either they win or run second or they’re out. Moreover, Keeneland is not fair to all runners which means a favorable post position is essential.
I do like the two Race Day colts as well, so if Charge It and We the People don’t triumph I hope White Abarrio and Barber Road defy the odds. Good luck to all, and thanks again, Steve.
If youre going to give your horse 2 starts and then need points to make the Derby, no complaints if you draw post 12 at Keeneland…or anywhere.
I agree!
True Steve, racing is all about gambling with luck a premium. Confidence must be very high with Zandon, I hope so.
Lesson learned in the Louisiana. Don’t try to fit a square peg through a round hole.
Steve, favorites have won the last six major N.A. preps (FOY, S Felipe, Gotham, TB Derby, La Derby, Sunland Derby). If the favorites continue to win, you’re going to be working overtime for the next few Derby Rankings. I should say “working double overtime” because you’re always putting in the extra effort. Thanks for your hard work and excellent column.
Thanks Eddie. The favorites winning will make things easier. at this point I want the best horses winning. No substitute for familiarity. But, yes, it will make picking a No. 1 more difficult and putting the horses in order. I’ll take that over longshots and a weak Derby field.
Yeah, I was thinking about the order of your top 4 or 5 slots.
As long as I have a hat in the house I’ll be fine
LOL. That’s as good as any other method.
Very concise assessment of the field. What can anybody say about Epicenter but WOW. 18 1/5 coming home. IMPRESSVIVE. As for the World Cup we have to hand to the Japanese for their diligence in buying bloodstock and their excellent facilities they have and how they been developing their horses. I just wish they could of gave us a chance to get Sunday Silence back here to live out his days. A bit of me thinks we should switch from Hay, Oats and Water to Miso, Seaweed and Sushi.
Thank you Steve for another great column. I don’t know of anyone who wasn’t impressed by Epicenter’s seemingly effortless win Saturday,and I think he’s a very deserving #1 … for now!
I enjoyed reading about Saffie Joseph, too. He first came across my radar in 2015, when he trained a black type horse named Saraguaro. Saraguaro is (was?) a son of Express Tour, by Tour d’Or, by Medaille d’Or, by Secretariat. I believe he was probably the last tail-male stakes-winner for Secretariat. Joseph did a really good job with Saraguaro, who made 15 starts and had two stakes wins and a stakes placing. He must have been among the first horses he trained here.
Hi Steve
It comes as no surprise that Epicenter has taken over the #1 spot on your Derby Rankings: Week II, he’s certainly earned it.
His performance in the Risen Star, and most recently in the Louisiana Derby, is indicative of a legitimate KD contender.
A few days ago, I posted a comment, in your Derby Rankings: Week 10, regarding Zozos’ pedigree. His sire leads directly to Mr. Prospector and his broodmare sire leads directly to Northern Dancer. That breeding cross has produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races. In addition, he’s a homebred (another plus), and he could carry the X-Factor large heart gene.
I mentioned that Zozos could be a “monster in the making”, and could steal this race ( La. Derby) which he damn near did.
Now that he has 40 Derby points, I’m hopeful his connections will point him to the KD. If he can improve, coming off that
Louisiana performance, he’ll be a major player in this year’s KD, IMO.
Just to be clear, as it stands now, Simplification is my top KD contender. I expect him to win the Florida Derby, and stamp hinself as one of the KD favorites.
Thank you for all the work you put forth, week after week.
Your writing is so enjoyable, Steve, and your bit about Saffie Joseph brought a tear to my eye. I’ll be on White Abarrio if for no other reason than that I want that extraordinary man to win a Kentucky Derby with a deserving horse!
Thank you Sally
Mandella is overdue.
Another excellent blog Steve. Unfortunately in the years to come we will most likely see so many lightly raced horses leading up to Kentucky. Not much foundation for so many of these young horses. It might be a prime year to bet the exotics. I am pretty confidant we will get some nice size payoffs that hit the board.
I am a believer in history & I trust my instincts. Epicenter just won the Louisiana Derby. Only 2 horses that have won the Louisiana Derby & Kentucky Derby was Black Gold in 1924 & Grindstone in 1996, I personally thought Grindstone was a pretty nice horse.
It has been 22 years years since Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood Memorial & Kentucky Derby. I wish I knew why these trends are so glaring. Actually only 11 horses that has won the Wood Memorial went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Four of those 11 winners were Triple Crown winners. This struck me as a little odd,
Those four were Gallant Fox, Count Fleet, Assault & Seattle Slew.
Obviously the Wood Memorial has not been run as yet but for me I will be cautious & not bet a win only ticket on the 2 winners of those races. The exotics just look real inviting.
Those you as always for your hard work in putting this list together every week. I am thinking that this may be your most challenging year ever.
It is Deacon, thanks. I never liked the La. Derby because of the 6 week layoff. But now that they changed the distance to 1 3/16 mles the layoff dosent bother me anymore. In its first year last year Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie both ran great in the Derby
Lotta good runners on the list, but you gotta love the “lunch pail horses”!
Rain predicted for Hot Springs and Hallandale Beach this Saturday, hopefully, they’re wrong.
All we need is more confusion.
Exactly Steve, I was expecting/hoping to read sunshine around 74f. Let’s just wish the rain away. We need the rain here it’s been dry for over a month now.
It’ll be a fast track in Hallandale on Saturday. I promise.
Wet fast?
Fast fast.
Another fantastic read Steve. Cream starting to rise to the top. Still think Zandon & Morello are sitting on a big race. Epicenter was very impressive deserves the accolades.
Thank you Jerry. Agree about both of those.
There is an unconfirmed report out there that Adare Manor has also been transferred from the BB barn to Tim Yakteen. BB says that it is so Adare Manor can earn enough points to run in The Kentucky Oaks. I like this horse quite a bit and will be torn between Adare Manor and Kathleen O on Oaks Day. That’s if Adare Manor makes it. She is scheduled to run in The Santa Anita Oaks which is a Kentucky Oaks points race. How about an Adare Manor/Kathleen O exacta box? Yeah, that’s the ticket.
I heard that and was surprised, because she wasn’t among the nominated fillies, IF she qualifies I think she wins.
Eddie Olczyk is absolutely obligated to pick Messier on top in Derby…
Better than him handicapping the race
Now that’s funny, Steve!! 🙂 Yeah he runs out of money faster then our govt!
Our got never runs out of money! Of course it eventually may not be worth much….
Steve Haskin points Pappacap out as a horse that is flying under the radar. His last race down in the Bayou is too bad to be believed. The fact that Mark Casse is running him back in The Florida Derby is a good sign. With Classic Causeway apparently joining White Abario and Simplification in the race, I can envision a scenario where Pappacap gets a real nice trip on Saturday. Mark Casse is changing jockeys for the race, turning to Edwin Gonzalez. The bad news is that horses that ran in The Breeders Cup Juvenile are only 1 for 16 since. Whatever happened to Corniche?
Steve Haskin-
Thanks for all of the updates on KD contenders. We are witnessing a lot of interesting developments as the weeks and months pass by and Derby Day gets closer. Naturally, many of us are focused on Future Bets that were made based on guesswork and instinct early in the year.
Have to confess that it is so much better to have a Future Bet that is still alive and kicking on the Derby Trail. As long as they are working out on a consistent, regular basis and have a targeted prep race in mind, that’s the least you can hope for.
One horse that I have a betting interest in is Early Voting. With the running of the last few Derby prep races, Jockeys and their Agents play the musical chairs game. On April 9 when they run the Blue Grass Stakes and Wood Memorial, where will Jose Ortiz ride, Keeneland or Aqueduct? I think his agent has several mounts to choose from. Do you any insights?
Thanks for your comments and opinions.
7.5 Furlongs
Slow Down Andy outclassed his rivals to hang on in New Mexico on Sunday. Great job. I don’t like any of the horses that he beat there. No offense. They went fast for 6-furlongs and it turned into a staggerfest in the stretch. Steve Haskin writes that he will probably rank Slow Down Andy next week. It’s hard for me to believe that there aren’t 16 Derby horses better than “Andy” who took the backdoor into The Derby IMO.
Do you think there are 16 three year olds that could run fast inside of pace pressure like that—and win, like SDA did?
You missed the facetious tone of that sentence.The last part is more important than the first part. I dont know what i’m doing with him.
Steve,
Although we’re talking Derby, it was fun watching the Japanese horses clean up at Meydan. We truly missed out on Sunday Silence. Epicenter made it look easy on Saturday so I agree with your number 1 ranking this week. I’m still on the fence with my choice, waiting for the next 2 weekends’ prep races.
I decided to play Oaklawn on Saturday and printed my form. Then I double-checked the forecast and see rain has entered the forecast. Still 5 days away. Things can change. I may have to play a mixed bag of races on Saturday. The Florida Derby probables look very interesting. I just don’t like any of their 3 tracks at Gulfstream. Even The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes is a little bit interesting. It looks like Rudolphe Brisset is going to run his new horse, Blackadder, in there. Blackadder won over Tapeta at Golden Gate with a strong finish and I think his late run will play real well at Turfway Park. I’m not 100% sure, but I think that might be a night game. Which means that it’s going to be a loooooong day of playing the horses. Which is a good thing.
The Bluegrass is shaping up as a terrific Derby prep field!
Volcanic will fetch a good price in the Bluegrass, is another who is flying under the radar..
I agree with you. Moreover, when the dust settles there might be quite a few unhappy trainers.
Like the old saying when a guy walks in with a black eye and chipped tooth “You should see the OTHER GUY”. .well the other guy Straight Up G was in another zip code at the finish line, that Slow Down Andy crossed FIRST—- that winner was gassed, and he found a way—now for recovery, and works BEHIND horses, and the price will be right— at least 20-1—
86 Beyer for Slow Down Andy but that’s OK because the race flow took any chance of a strong finish away from him, this is a big-framed horse that ran 22 1/5…45 and change 1:09 and change and WON—inside of pace pressure throughout, appeared beaten in mid-stretch, and is going to fetch a big price at Louisville….
EddieF pointed out in last week’s comments that only Animal Kingdom and Mandaloun have won The Derby with 6-weeks off since prior race. I’ll take his word for it. That’s something to think about. Epicenter’s versatility makes him look very good and I was glad to see him run a 102 BSF before The Derby. As Steve Haskin points out, it should set him up perfectly.
Big difference between 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/16 miles. Totally different prep now. And Epicenter has plenty of bottom. Hot Rod Charlie ran darn good too.
A one-sixteenth of a mile difference to be precise. 😉 So…would you have placed Epicenter at #1 if the race was 9f?
Hi, TommyMc. I wasn’t going all the way back to 1956 when Needles won off a 6-week layoff. And I wasn’t counting Mandaloun because, well, he didn’t finish first in the Derby. Regardless, the six weeks isn’t a problem when there’s nothing else to knock about Epicenter. He looks solid.
Great as always Steve. I missed the Sunland so will have to go watch the replay. The UAE Derby was interesting and wonder why Pinehurst was eased? I am looking forward to Saturday and the filly Secret Oath. After watching Echo Zulu squeak out that win I think Secret Oath would have won that race. My opinion of course. She seems kind of push button so to speak. Her sire was impressive at 3 when he finally got racing. He did break the Travers track record.
Just saw Pinehurst came up lame, nothing else.
Epicenter moved to the top of my list for the very same reason Steve Haskin has moved him to #1, as I fully expected him to do after proving he could rate. This is a very nice colt with no holes that I can see. Of the others, not surprised to finally see Messier finally change trainers, though I’m wondering if it’s more of a change on paper than a change in fact. The filly? We shall see. She’s no dainty little thing and is definitely fast enough to run with the colts. And I’ve still got Morello high on my list; wouldn’t be surprised if Asmussen ran 1-2 in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
So happy I dropped a $20 win bet on Epicenter in the last Kentucky Derby Future Wager as a $2 win bet on him pays $28.40. In retrospect, those odds were a gift. Also played a few exacta’s with him as well. I agree with your sentiments exactly Mr Haskin. You could not have asked for a better race result. Maybe Steve Asmussen finally wins the Derby.
Thank you for your expert analysis. Each week, I cant wait to read your Derby Rankings.
Thanks Scott. Good luck with you bet
Fabulous analysis, Steve. I agree with your putting Epicenter at No. 1 — he’s earned it. He apparently broke Hot Rod Charlie’s record for the distance, too. Next week’s big races will tell us a lot more (I hope). There are FOUR of them — hope the post times don’t coincide within a minute of each other, as has happened in the past.
One question: has Newgrange worked at all since the Rebel? And is he still with Baffert?
Thank you. Newgrange hasnt worked. still with Baffert
Hi Steve;
Agree 100% regarding your new number one horse: he certainly is one of the most versatile showing multiple ways to run well. It will be interesting to see who wins the upcoming prep races, and also how strong they look as well as their various speed numbers. I am about to head downtown: it is getting difficult at this point to find big overlaid odds on contenders. Pappacap is currently 65-1 at Circa and 75-1 at William Hill. The one I like is Ethereal Road: currently 80-1 at Circa and only 35-1 at William Hill. I am heading to Circa! Thanks for the valuable information!
Wow good luck with that
In 1995 bettors chased Wayne’s Timber Country and Serena’s Song both to the windows… This as most of them ignored the other colt in his barn. .. except of course, Gary.
That one was almost as good as the near to perfect perfect claiming to Lexington (getting on the right side of the ledger) play the coach ran in 1999… No doubt Charismatic was the finest prepared and shipped colt ever sent to the Churchill KD windows. Just review thE virtuoso placed PP’s that brought the wagering “house down” at the wire.
Repeated success leaves clues… and so it goes just maybe with E-Road.
1995 was the year a small colt that had been racing at Portland Meadows and the bullring track Hastings Park, in Western Canada named Jumron went off the 5-1 second choice in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a troubled 4th, suffering a career ending injury during the race.
SS- raced 2 much. Insane!