Derby Rankings: Week 11
Well, four of the 100-point preps are in the books and four to go. And guess what, the picture is even more unclear than it was before. We have 11 horses from this country who have completed their preps, the majority of whom are fairly secure when it comes to points. But others have to sit back and see what transpires. There no doubt will be controversy regarding the placing of the top two ranked horses, but it is all explained and will be resolved in Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes. So here we go. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 11, Mar. 29
By Steve Haskin
1. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
No, this is not a knee-jerk reaction. Everyone thought I had this horse ranked way too high at No. 4, not having accomplished much in stakes company, getting a head-scratching 82 Beyer in his 11-length win last out, and Churchill Downs refusing to put him in the Future Wager field. I can regurgitate everything I have written about him and why I have been so high on him, but the bottom line is that he finally has arrived. All you had to do was look at that low action and the way he sticks out his neck and reaches out with those huge strides to know why he’s been such a pleasure to watch run. He got himself out of a precarious spot down on the rail, where he does not want to be, which gives one confidence he can handle a big Derby field. Why Irad Ortiz hit him eight times left-handed even while he was shying from the whip and drifting out is beyond me. Despite that and then being angled in sharply he still came home his final three-eighths in a sharp :36 4/5. And that came after quarters of :24 and :24 1/5. If you don’t think the blinkers have snapped him out of his recent malaise, his Thoro-Graph figure last race catapulted from an unseemly “11” to a “3 1/2” and now here he was trapped on the rail and weaving his way out just like an old pro. As for his top ranking, he is now two-for-two against previous No. 1 Greatest Honour. Eddie Woods, who gave him his early training said he was a beautiful mover, but more importantly he was a “star mentally,” and that’s what you want to hear going into the Derby. If you want a refresher course on this colt’s amazing pedigree you can either go back to Week 1 in the archives or wait for an even more in depth look at it next week.
2. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
Yes, I am fully aware he should be No. 1, and perhaps should have been even before the Florida Derby. But let’s look at it this way, Known Agenda, ranked No. 4, has stamped himself as a major contender who is progressing rapidly and has a pedigree to die for. If Essential Quality somehow gets beat in the Blue Grass, which is very doubtful, he would be No. 1 for only one week. This way, let’s just wait a week for him to defeat his far inferior opponents at Keeneland and then he can have four weeks on top. Also, let’s not forget that Brad Cox has already had two major contenders run terribly, although no one expects that from this colt. From a personal perspective, I am always looking for those hidden gems and right now it’s more fun going against the grain and not being so logical, while elevating one of those hidden gems despite the derision of others. I guess I am too loyal to them, as I was when I stubbornly refused to put Justify No. 1 over Vino Rosso, who kind of reminds me of Known Agenda, so I apparently didn’t learn my lesson. With that said, Essential Quality is now the clear-cut Derby favorite and the most sensible No. 1. The Blue Grass is looking like a fairly small field at this point, with no one who appears capable of beating him. His performance also could affect what Godolphin does with their impressive UAE Derby winner Rebel’s Romance. Tune in next week when we have the real Derby picture.
3. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit)
His Thoro-Graph and Brisnet speed figures need to get a bit faster, but with his first two-turn race under him and the improvement expected from a horse with only three career starts and a single two-turn race that he won under wraps, there is little doubt Baffert will have him cranked up for a career best effort in the Arkansas Derby, which like the Blue Grass looks to be coming up light, at least as of now. So, barring the unforeseen, it appears we should have a Bob Baffert — Brad Cox showdown in the Derby, and you can bet Baffert didn’t like seeing this young gun come along last year and snatching the Eclipse Award he felt he deserved, especially considering that despite his remarkable success year after year he amazingly has won only one Eclipse award in the past 21 years and that was compliments of the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. Now he has a chance to give Gary and May West the Derby victory they had taken away from them two years ago. As for Concert Tour, he does have to take another step forward and he helped his cause with an impressive looking five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5, which doesn’t sound exceptional by Baffert’s standards, but he worked alone and had his ears up the entire length of the stretch with the rider’s hands virtually motionless. Only when he was asked for a little more after the wire did he put his ears back and get down to more serious business. Baffert has always liked this horse and there was one week a while back when he was trying to tame the aggressive Life is Good and harness his speed that he said Concert Tour was his best 3-year-old.
4. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
Here is a tip for today’s not so old racing fans: horses lose. They do it all the time, especially after they have won three in a row. Believe it or not, in the 19 years between 1992 and 2010, 13 Derby winners lost their previous start, including those trained by Baffert (twice), Lukas (twice), Pletcher, Zito, Shirreffs, Tagg, and Mack Miller. Sure, we’ve been spoiled in the past several years, but the recent Derby winners that have won their previous start were lightly raced and had little wear and tear. But Greatest Honour has had seven starts, five of them around two turns, and has raced every month since September without a break. He unfortunately ran too big a race in late January, all those long races have dulled him, and he has tailed off a bit; it has happened before. Fortunately, he, like the others alluded to earlier, has a Hall of Fame trainer who is very capable of using the next five weeks to get him sharp again. And let’s add that he received a very questionable ride in the Florida Derby, going four-wide into the turn, then cutting sharply to the rail for some reason and again dropping to the back of the pack. Stuck in a precarious situation, he then was asked to make a premature move down the backstretch and ran smack into a traffic jam with no way out until it was too late. Yes, he came up empty in the stretch, but this is a horse who wants to be clear on the outside, and now it’s up to McGaughey to bring back the horse we saw in the Holy Bull, who was only four lengths off a :46 4/5 half and won going away.
5. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
After his last race, he had a little ulcer in this throat and looked like he was starting to entrap, so they did a minor procedure on it and he’s doing great now and has since tuned in two strong works. In Sunday’s half-mile drill he worked from the 4 1/2-furlong pole and really picked it up after the wire, going out six furlongs in about 1:12, and doing it very smoothly. Let’s not forget that Life is Good is the only horse to defeat him and he has shown he can win on the lead and dig in gamely when threatened and can close from off the pace. And he is versatile enough to win at 5 1/2 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. He likely will be the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby and with his speedy stablemate Defunded in there, it is expected he will provide a solid pace. This looks like a very competitive race on paper and should be an excellent steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby. But with his problems cleared up and Life is Good out of the way, this is his time to shine.
6. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
I honestly don’t know what to make of the Louisiana Derby and have no idea how much this colt has improved since the Breeders’ Cup. The Louisiana Derby has fooled us many times in the past when it comes to producing Kentucky Derby horses, but you would think the 1 3/16-mile distance should set these horses up for the big race better than in past years. After he paired up “3 3/4” Thoro-Graph numbers I thought he would move forward off that, but he ran another “3 3/4,” which means he hasn’t gotten any faster since the Breeders’ Cup. And despite the fact that he won by two lengths, his Thoro-Graph number was the fourth fastest in the race, a full point slower than the third-place finisher. He has proven to be a tough competitor who never backs down from a fight, and he is another who is versatile enough to win from on or off the pace. There is a good chance he will lose Joel Rosario to Concert Tour, and Rosario will be tough to replace, so we will have to see how that plays out.
7. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
I ranked him this high last week off two grass starts because they were eye-catching performances, in which he displayed a quick turn of foot and had two monster gallop-outs. I admit at first I wasn’t that crazy about his work last week, as the rider was way too busy on him tying to keep up with his workmate and had him in a full-out drive at the wire. But I saw in Sunday’s work that’s him. And boy was he rolling in his spectacular five-furlong work in a bullet :59 1/5, which not only was the fastest of 76 works at the distance, it was two full seconds faster than the average time that day of 1:01 1/5. He again was being asked in the stretch, with the rider throwing a cross on him and riding him hard at the wire. But he seems to thrive on that, coming back a week after a hard six-furlong work and working lights out like this. Sadler certainly doesn’t baby him in the morning like many trainers these days do. He has such a powerful stride with great extension and seems to get stronger the farther he goes. Just watch the gallop-outs after his two races. His pedigree is made up of several top-class horses who excelled on both grass and dirt and at all distances. As I’ve been saying the past few weeks, he could be special and we very well may be seeing a huge breakout performance on Saturday.
8. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch to Moon, by Malibu Moon)
The blueprint for this horse is simple if he is going to win the Derby. He has shown he just doesn’t have the desire or more likely the closing punch to pass horses in the stretch, but good luck tying to get by him if he has the lead. His sire was not the type to run down horses in the stretch, but there wasn’t a horse who could get by him. He did battle on gamely when apparently beaten to stick his nose in front of Sakhee at the wire in his second Classic victory, but he was a 4-year-old and fully battle-tested, and he was a Hall of Famer. This colt needs to find out who he is and how to use the one weapon his sire apparently has passed down to him. We know what he can’t do and we saw what he can do in the LeComte Stakes and he definitely looks like he has a lot of Tiznow in him in that he is a dogged competitor who needs to be in front to be able to use his tenacity and courage. So, here we are at the Derby. There are two scenarios for victory: he goes to the lead knowing no one is going to pay attention to him and he lulls everyone to sleep until it is time to go after him. That is when he pulls out his main weapon and dares anyone to pass him; or he sits right off a horse who is determined to get to the front and then catches him by surprise and takes over by the time they hit the top of stretch. He just needs to be in front before they turn for home. There you go, the general has spoken.
9. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse, Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit)
First off, I feel this colt is probably one race short of being ready to win the Kentucky Derby, but he showed me so much more than I expected from such a green immature horse who hasn’t beaten anything that I am at least convinced he is ready to be competitive. In his first two races he was gawking at everything, was intimidated easily, ducked sharply to the inside in the stretch for no apparent reason, managed to get himself trapped in a three-horse field at Tampa Bay, and had trouble changing leads. Although he still refused to change leads in the Florida Derby, he ran perfectly straight down the stretch and was far more professional in general. He floated a bit too wide going into the first turn, but settled nicely pressing the early pace. He managed to get a short lead nearing the head of the stretch and I thought John Velazquez would set him down before the big horses closed in on him, but he just kept sitting chilly on him, and it looked as if he was caught by surprise when Known Agenda suddenly swung out and showed up right alongside him. Velazquez looked over and it was like, “Oops, where did you come from?” By then it was too late, as Known Agenda was by him. He was so close to him, possibly even brushing him that it might have impeded his lead change. He remained stuck on his left lead the rest of the way, but still hung in there and ran strong to the wire, finishing three lengths ahead of Greatest Honour. He definitely is still a work in progress and when the final product emerges we’re going to see a very exciting horse. But this was a huge step forward for him. Now all he has to do is show he can change leads.
10. Risk Taking (Chad Brown, Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
Boy, the Wood Memorial is a tough race to figure out, with so many elements and different types of horses converging. This is a pure crap shoot. Any one of seven horses has a legitimate shot to win. I have had him ranked highest and no sense changing now. I’m not sure if he is fast enough for some of these horses, but he has made such great strides and is so tough and a relentless closer I have no choice but to stick with him knowing any one of his opponents can pop a big one and beat him, including his own stablemate Crowded Trade, who could be any kind, but like Nicky the Vest, Prevalence, and Brooklyn Strong, he has a lot of catching up to do. Risk Taking on the other hand is a seasoned, battle-tested pro with a lot of foundation. So I am just going to sit back and enjoy what promises to be a cavalry charge in the stretch and see who prevails.
11. Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens, Pioneerof the Nile – Sunday Affair, by A.P. Indy)
He has never been two turns, but I have no doubt he will not only handle it, but probably will improve. I am also a sucker for any horse trained by Jimmy Jerkens, especially one that comes from such a strong family that has the presence of Sky Beauty, the Hall of Fame Triple Tiara winner trained by Jimmy’s father Allen, one of the truly great trainers who taught his son well. Yes, I like this horse, especially the way he bounced back from an illness that cost him valuable time to run one of the gutsiest races of the year going a tough flat mile, but more so I am confident Jerkens will get the best out of him and have him ready for a peak effort in the Kentucky Derby. But first he has to get past this tough race and we will see how he handles the two turns. All I know is that Weyburn is going to be ready for this test and the big one in five weeks when we will see a fitter and more polished colt. He had a bit of a lung opener this week, working six furlongs over the deeper Belmont training track in 1:16.
12. Helium (Mark Casse, Ironicus – Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
There are only so many times I can go over all the historical obstacles he has to overcome, but here goes one more time. Eight weeks to the Derby, having only one start at 3, and having never run farther than 1 1/16 miles. You know who has overcome all that in the past 100 years? No one. I admit in this day and age you never say never. We have no idea how good this horse is and he has already accomplished something he never should have, so he may be special. But with so many lightly raced horses this year and such mass confusion after the top five or six horses you have to draw some kind of line somewhere. If he pulls this off don’t expect to see future Derby horses compete very often. I did love his latest work, a half in :49 1/5 in company. Even working with another horse you can see how determined this horse is and how much he loves competition. I expect soon we will see some longer works to put some bottom in him.
13. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
This is another Pletcher horse on which I have gone out on a limb, way more than with Known Agenda. Obviously I have been much higher on Known Agenda, but this horse really grabbed my attention in a fourth-place finish in a maiden race. There were so many things I liked about him and reasons why that race was a throwout. Now that he finally broke his maiden going 1 1/8 miles in fine style there is no telling how far he can move forward. Nothing fancy here. I just like what I’ve seen and absolutely love his pedigree, both of which I have already written about. He will be a big price in the Wood and a second would be huge. Although he needs a fairly big jump forward off his “5” Thoro-Graph number it is doable. He is a must bet for me for a very minimal wager even if he is up against it and doesn’t look as fast and as classy as the others. Like with many of these I’m just taking a wild shot that there is a top-class colt lurking in there just waiting to bust out. But I admit that more likely will come later on.
14. O Besos (Gregory Foley, Orb – Snuggs and Kisses, by Soto)
Hopefully he won’t turn out to be the heartbreak story of the Derby trail, missing by a head of getting in the Derby. That head separating him from second in the Louisiana Derby could cost him dearly, as his connections can only sit back and wait to see if 25 points will get him in. And that normally doesn’t, and the Florida Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks didn’t help with four horses shooting past him. They can thank Churchill Downs for buying Turfway Park and increasing the Jeff Ruby winning points from 20 to 100. And we still have to wait to see what happens in the four big remaining preps and if anyone comes from Japan or Europe, and if either of the top two finishers of the UAE Derby come. He deserves to get in, but as Clint Eastwood said to Gene Hackman, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.” He has really improved and what makes it even more frustrating was that he was gaining fast on runner-up Midnight Bourbon, just coming up inches short. He also got the highest Thoro-Graph number in the race, a “2 3/4,” which puts him right up there in the in the top five fastest 3-year-olds. He would have been ranked higher if his status wasn’t so precarious.
15. Roman Centurian (Simon Callaghan, Empire Maker – Spare Change, by Bernardini)
There are so many horses you can bet in the Santa Anita Derby, but if the price is right I would probably bet a few bucks on him along with Rock Your World because I believe he could be a huge overlay, having come within a head of Medina Spirit off a maiden win that was so impressive and pleasing to the eye I had him ranked in the Top 12 in Week 1, and I very rarely if ever rank a horse off a maiden victory. Too many maiden winners look great but regress when they face winners. He justified the ranking with his huge effort in the Robert Lewis, in which his Thoro-Graph numbers went from a “13” and a “6” to a “3 1/4.” He had no shot in the San Felipe with Life is Good controlling the pace and then having the field get way too strung out on the turn for him to threaten. He was going to skip town to run in the Wood Memorial, but now it looks like he’s staying home where he should get plenty of early pace. If he can rebound with another big effort he would be a very serious horse, especially with his breeding.
16. Dream Shake (Peter Eurton, Twirling Candy – Even Song, by Street Cry)
He definitely is bettable in the Santa Anita Derby after his solid third in the San Felipe off one six-furlong victory, but I have a feeling he is going to get bet, quite possibly down to second choice. There has been a buzz surrounding this horse ever since his eye-catching debut when he came from off the pace and blew away the field that included the highly touted Bezos. I’m still not convinced he can be ready for a winning effort in the Kentucky Derby off the two races in which he has run, but I will admit his first race was awfully impressive and he ran quite well in the San Felipe considering who he was thrown in against being so inexperienced and with so little foundation under him. He could do anything on Saturday and it wouldn’t surprise me, because as I have said ad nauseam I have no idea how good these horses are.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
UNTREATED – Just found out he is running the Blue Grass Stakes. Watch out for this colt. In his last start he demonstrated the most impressive turn of foot and explosive burst of speed I’ve seen all year, going from seventh to first in a matter of seconds and then absolutely crushing his field, while not drifting an inch off his path. He is one race short of being ready for this kind of test but his connections say they can only play the cards they’ve been dealt. They are taking a shot with no idea how’s going to do. But if you’re looking for a fresh new face you know nothing about to burst on the scene, this colt could be the one if he can duplicate that devastating move we saw at Tampa Bay. He is the long lean type who looks as if distance will be no problem and is another whose talent and class is unknown, but who has shown enough to suggest he is one to keep an eye on. With Essential Quality in there, it’s a tough spot, but they would be be thrilled with a second. It’s just whether or not he’s up to this test being one race away from top form.
PREVALENCE – I have no doubt this is an exceptional colt, but I just want to see more than I saw in his three-length allowance victory beating a $50,000 claimer. I know he did miss time with a fever, but he is far superior to those horses. Like many this year I don’t know if he will be ready to go a mile and a quarter in five weeks, but he obviously is extremely talented, and no doubt all eyes will be on him. He did turn in a sensational half-mile work in :47 3/5 in company and breaking off in front on the inside. He was very smooth down the stretch, but with powerful strides, and blew the doors off his workmate. If that’s the Prevalence we’re going to see on Saturday it sure will make things interesting.
REBEL’S ROMANCE – So what does Godolphin do? They should have a clearer picture after the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial depending on how Essential Quality and Prevalence do. And they already have Proxy in the starting lineup. But this gelding sure looked impressive putting in a powerful stretch run to put away a tough classy frontrunner in the undefeated PANADOL, who had wired his field in the Al Bastakiya, the second leg of the UAE Triple Crown, and is a U.S.-bred son of Flatter. Godolphin has been trying to win the Derby with a horse trained in Dubai since the ‘90s, but have come up empty. Rebel’s Romance’s two grandsires are Dubai Millennium, who was Sheikh Mohammed’s pride and joy, and Street Cry, who had a big chance to give him his Derby victory until he got hurt a little over a week before the race. Both Dubai Millennium and Street Cry went on to win the Dubai World Cup. Dubai Millennium sired only one crop before dying from grass sickness at age 5. But in that crop was Dubawi, the sire of Rebel’s Romance. Street Cry sired two of the greatest mares in history, Zenyatta and Winx, before his premature death in Australia at the age of 16. How special would it be for Sheikh Mohammed to finally win the elusive Kentucky Derby with a grandson of Dubai Millennium and Street Cry. Trainer Charlie Appleby didn’t seem overly enthusiastic after the race about him going, but realizes it will be Sheikh Mohammed’ decision. If I knew he was running he would be ranked in the Top 10.
LIKE THE KING – The Jeff Ruby Steaks winner does have a second on the dirt in his career debut, but has been racing on synthetic since. He came from far back, made a big sweeping move on the far turn and was widest of all turning into the stretch before powering home to win by a length. His sire Palace Malice won the Belmont Stakes and his third dam is by Belmont winner Bet Twice, so there is plenty of stamina top and bottom with the addition of Curlin, Unbridled, and Easy Goer.
SAINTHOOD – I you want an up-and-coming star who had an unbelievable trip in the Jeff Ruby, you have to keep an eye on this Todd Pletcher-trained son of Mshawish. Coming off a narrow maiden victory in only his second career start, he broke sharply and found himself on the lead briefly before settling back in second. Down the backstretch he was passed by several others and dropped six lengths off the pace. He made his move on the inside rounding the turn, but again lost ground, falling back to sixth. He was swung to the far outside nearing the top of the stretch, but ran right into the winner who blocked his way and who then shoved him back in and behind a wall of horses forcing jockey Gerardo Corrales to steady briefly looking for an opening. He finally got him to the outside, but Like the King was long gone by then. Corrales gave him one right-handed whip at the sixteenth pole and Sainthood exploded, tearing into the winner’s lead in the final yards, but fell a length short. It’s difficult to gauge a horse’s true talent on a synthetic course, but he was incredibly game in his maiden victory at Fair Grounds, re-breaking and battling back to win by a nose. He’s in the Derby if they want to move forward with him.
I don’t even know where to begin with the others. If there is one improving horse who could make his presence felt against Essential Quality, at least to finish second, it likely would be HIDDEN STASH, who might have won the Tampa Bay Derby if he didn’t get freaked out by a female lead pony and run off for a long way hugging the rail and throwing his head around wildly. He finally was reined in by the outrider and still went out there and finished a good second, running a career-high “4” Thoro-Graph number. Two others who bear watching are HIGHLY MOTIVATED stretching out to two turns and possibly KEEPMEINMIND, who may wind up waiting for the Arkansas Derby. We may also see TARANTINO wheel back in a week after his disastrous start in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, in which he was outdistanced and just loped around the track. It looks as if the Blue Grass could get California invader ROMBAUER and he certainly has a shot to come flying late to get a piece of it. John Battaglia winner HUSH OF A STORM passed the Jeff Ruby Steaks to prep on the dirt in the Blue Grass.
In the Wood, BROOKLYN STRONG will be making his 3-year-old debut in a desperate attempt to get in the Derby and I have no idea what to expect with him not having run since his Remsen victory in November. And can CROWDED TRADE repeat that huge performance in the Gotham? He is another we don’t much about, but that was an exceptional performance and we are going to find out if he is just as effective going two turns.
Three horses trying to bounce back big-time in the Santa Anita Derby off poor efforts are THE GREAT ONE, who has been impressive working long and trying to return to the Rankings, PARNELLI, who will get blinkers and has been working super in them, and GET HER NUMBER, who didn’t have the best of trips in the Rebel Stakes. Any one of these can rebound and return to their earlier form. We’re talking Doug O’Neill, John Shirreffs, and Peter Miller, so you cannot dismiss any of them.
So here are the horses who have completed their preps and next stop Kentucky Derby: Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Soup and Sandwich, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, O Besos, Proxy, Mandaloun, Helium, Like the King, and Sainthood. Possibles: Rebel’s Romance, Panadol, and let’s call Mandaloun a possibility.
Don’t look now but that’s more than half the field already and we still have four major preps remaining and the last gasp Lexington Stakes, and who knows if anyone will be coming from Japan or Europe.
In 1897, the winning Derby trainer gave his winner a handful of rose petals, …..later on the horse got diareah, and the next day the trainer told the reporter he got “the runs from the roses”, and the reporter transcribed it wrong and that’s how they came up with ” The Run for the Roses”………true story. Sort of. Well, it was 1897, there was a horse…..
I just watched the replay of the SA Derby…..Rock Your World did not break on top, he was ridden to the front through 22 2/5 and 46 FLAT splits, and his gallop out was terrific!
If….Concert Tour wins in Arkansas….the 3 Kentucky Derby favorites will all be undefeated.
… and Known Agenda will be a good price!
Greatest Honour will be 8-1 maybe more….and Rock Your World will be at least 5-1, if he runs like he did yesterday they’re running for 2nd….
I’m there with you
My prediction of Steve’s ranking tomorrow:
1. Essential Quality
2. Rock Your World
3. Concert Tour
4. Known Agenda
5. Greatest Honour
6. Medina Spirit
7. Hot Rod Charlie
8. Bourbonic
9. Highly Motivated
10. Dynamic One
11. Midnight Bourbon
12. Soup and Sandwich
Ooh! Bourbonic at #8? I have a feeling that Steve was simultaneously baffled and unimpressed by the Wood Memorial outcome. But who knows?!?! Maybe he’ll give Bourbonic credit for closing so much ground on a SLOW track.
Steve who admires Afleet Alex’s athleticism could be evoking his TC feats and see genetic merits in Bourbonic … And the running style is just right for the distance…!
Winning the Wood Memorial should mean something after all …
Not to mention the nostalgia associated with Calumet Farm.
As a nostalgic man I totally second your reply…!
Nostalgia, 2010. Sydney’s Candy.
Let’s say that Concert Tour wins next week as the odds-on favorite. What would be the combined chances of a Derby win by Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Rock Your World, or Concert Tour? 80%? 90%? I just don’t see any others having a decent shot at upsetting those four. Typically you’ll have possibilities at good odds that lost their last races but were still impressive in losing. Not so this year as I see it. But there’s still Saturday to go and more studying. Maybe something will surface!
On a side note, I would think that the connections of O Besos would have to consider the Ark Derby (3rd place might be enough) or the Lexington (a win) in order to be assured of a spot in the gate. They can’t assume that there will be enough defections.
Agree with those 4 horses, but I would add that GH and MS to make it closer to 100%….
Maybe 95%. 🙂
You are missing one…..
Nope. Just checked down there. Both of ’em are still there!
I’ll go one better. What percentage do we think that Curlin or Tapit will get their first derby win? 100 percent fir me. Actually hoping for a Curlin Derby / Oaks double Also think 75 percent that Curlin gets his first Oaks win from 1 of 4 that have qualified. Malathaat my Oaks horse. Clairiere – Milliefuellie – Souper sensational as well as Grandfather of Miss Brazil
To all the regular contributors to Steve’s Weekly Rankings, how about predicting the sequence that Steve will come up with for Week 12? I predict Steve will select the following:
1) Rock Your World
2) Essential Quality
3) Known Agenda
4) Concert Tour
5) Highly Motivated
6) Hot Rod Charlie
7) Medina Spirit
8) Greatest Honour
9) Soup and Sandwich
10) Midnight Bourbon
11) Rombauer
12) Dynamic One
Step right up folks and make you predications for Week 12!
I offered my PREDICATION yesterday. LOL
Hey EddieF
Yes, I noticed you posted your top 12 yesterday. With a few exceptions, they’re similar to mine.
Yup. Only big argument would be Greatest Honour. I don’t think Steve would drop him 4 spots. But it’s clear that he’s having great difficulty with the rankings this time. I hope he emerges from the ordeal unscathed. 🙂
Not a fan of numbers,etc. GH is capable of winning the Derby.
What the heck. Here’s my list, but not in any way my betting order.
1. Essential Quality
2. Known Agenda
3. Hot Rod Charlie
4. Rock Your World
5. Concert Tour
6. Greatest Honour
7. Highly Motivated
8. Medina Spirit (although I have a feeling he won’t run for some reason)
9. Soup and Sandwich
10. O Besos
11. Bourbonic
12. Dynamic One
Mary Ellen, is that your own list or is it your prediction of Steve’s next rankings? If the latter, I can’t see him putting Hot Rod Charlie that high. Heard Baffert interviewed and it seems Medina is going to the Derby.
Nice call on Rock Your World. He looked so comfortable out their controlling the field with his natural speed and looked to have plenty in the tank at the wire. Barbaro naturally comes to mind and that surface at Churchill, if not turned to peanut butter on race day, will suit him just fine. The field is starting to produce some contenders and we still have the Ark Derby and Baffert’s best chance to view. I would love to see Rebel’s Romance book a flight and join the fun. Keep your ear to the ground for us and share any news out of Sheikh Mohammed’s tent that you may overhear. Hope you and your family have enjoyed a blessed Passover.
All the best Steve, looking forward to your next write up.
Sure will, and thank you
Remember 2010, Sydney’s Candy Same race, same trainer, same result and then off to the Kentucky Derby…will it be the same result there as well?
No.
Well, doing better than 17th shouldn’t be too hard. Ha ha
Different year,different horse. RYW is very talented.
Well if it rains like hell, perhaps, but otherwise I like this horse far more and don’t see any comparisons other than the ones you point out and for me, it’s all about the horse. No offense to trainers or jocks but the equine is the athlete that matters in Louisville. Everyone else is Sideshow Bob. Including Bob.
Ha ha Sideshow Bob made me giggle. What if Rock Your World gets Post. 20? Déjà vu!!
Sidney’s Candy went into the Ky Derby having never run on natural dirt. So…not same.
Phew!!
Hello Steve, Proxy fired a bullet 4F work at Keeneland today in 46 and change. Call me crazy but I believe that Proxy is a very live longshot who could win the KY Derby. He has tactical speed and should relish 1 1/4. Getting squeezed back in the LA Derby put proxy in 5th early and Johnny V had to use him early to keep up and get position going into the first turn. With a good break in the LA Derby he would have stalked Hot Rod Charlie and made a serious run at him in the stretch. I can see blinkers off for Proxy in the Derby as he ran well in the Lecomte and Risen Star without them. He will need a new jockey but I am sure his trainer will get him a good one. He is tactical assuming a clean break and can settle in the second flight only a few lengths off of the leader, avoiding a lot of kickback in a 20 horse stampede. I bet Proxy at 41-1 in KDFW4 and I am surely not giving up on him. I like it that he is already in KY and surely will get at least a couple of works at CD before the Derby. As you said Steve, if Proxy can run straight in the stretch it could improve him by 5 lengths, sounds like a recipe for this possible KY Derby contender.
That may all be moot. Mike Stidham told me he doesnt want to run him in the Derby. He hasnt shown enough and his drifting has been puzzling. He will discuss with Jimmy Bell but his peference is to not run. He has worked fast before. We’ll see if Jimmy has other ideas/
That’s not good news about Proxy Steve. With Prevalence flopping hopefully Godolohin will send Proxy to the Derby. His bullet work signals that he is fine and fit coming out of the LA Derby. My only other live KDFW bet would be Roman Centurian at 41-1 from KDFW3. I bet RC at 41-1. His trainer today said that RC is doing well and will now be pointed to the ARK Derby. He needs to upset or finish 2nd to get in. You know with Caddo River gunning to the lead the pace to close into will be hot for Roman Centurian who should love the 1 1/8 in ARK.
Just spoke to him and it looks like now they are thinking Lexington. Smart move.
Joe, one of the benefits of the FW is that you don’t need to worry about it. The bet is in. You can concentrate on your normal Derby Week handicapping. I’ll have Proxy, Greatest Honour, Mandaloun, and perhaps Roman Centurian (if he gets in) all at about 40-1 in the FW. I doubt that I’d be considering them as Derby day bets. So if one of them surprises me and wins, it’ll be like winning the lottery!
Interesting results yesterday to say the least and IMHO opens the field up to other possibilities winning the Derby. So happy Essential Quality won. I have stuck by him this long, no reason to bail on him now because it appears to have been a challenging race for him (meaning he had to dig down deep for it). Question becomes does he have more. By a nose, a neck, a length; a win is a win. Happy Easter to all who celebrate.
Lynda, I’m sticking with EQ as well. Rock Your World (or possibly Concert Tour, depending on whether he wins brilliantly in Arkansas) may go off as favorite. Rock sure was impressive, but Essential Quality continues to impress with his gutty performances. Also, he’s an unbeaten Grade 1 winner of FIVE races. The two other unbeatens have only 3.
Agree!
Well Happy Easter everyone. Still kind of scratching my head after yesterday. Only one favorite won and that was by a short nose. So my question is which team has the guts to race at Oaklawn on the 10th and then come back in 3 weeks for the Derby? 40 years ago no problem they would do it but today? Can’t wait to read what Steve has coming up next.
I think Todd is still recovering from the shock today. 72-1? As for Bob not sure what his mood is as Medina just was flat during that race. As for the Blue Grass that was a a real battle there. Tapit is known for being a top sire but the colts are often nut cases but this one isn’t.
Rock Your World really did rock and it wasn’t that long ago I believe might have been you Steve that penned an article about switching from turf to dirt in the past. If it wasn’t sorry but saw a video with Jerry Bailey about a colt that had been running on the turf and Mike Smith was this colt needs to be on the dirt, not turf so this was years ago. Bailey picked up the ride for a long stretch but ended up losing the colt, conflict in schedule or something and never got him back. Very long winning streak and can’t recall the name of the colt. He raced everywhere. Old age getting to me and I digress.
Still think this is a wide open Derby. See what happens in the next few weeks as the final field firms up. Hope somebody from across the pond at least tries to make it.
Stated many instances more than “one trainer” who can get the job done.
Cigar
Spent much time with him last seven yrs of his life.
I am completely sold on Rock Your World, especially how Steve has pointed out his pedigree and gallop out after the races. His gallop out yesterday and not being tired at all was incredible. He did beat the deepest prep field as well… HOWEVER, like Known Agenda, I am not sold on their trainer for the big race. Sadler is a very capable trainer, but doesn’t seem to ship horses well like Baffert. And with Pletcher, his KD record includes at least 29 KD entries who have finished worse than 9th place.
didnt they say Sadler couldnt ship and win a big race before he won the BC Classic?
Very True; Sadler is so familiar with Candy Ride’s sons as well successfully navigating Twirling Candy, and Sidney’s Candy career. So yes, I can see Sadler winning… thanks for the reminder…
He won a stakes at Keeneland yesterday…..Bob B and Brad C can get the publicity, John Sadler casts his own shadow, and when he gets on a roll, look out! Rock paid 5-1 yesterday, and an extra furlong does not seem to be problematic—he’ll fetch 5-1 again, in Louisville at least—
Santa Anita didn’t look as deep as it has been in recent years, but Aqueduct is deep, all right….horses coming from Aqueduct might have a condition edge in Louisville, but are they good enough? Rock Your World will enter the Derby having never tasted kickback, but I think John will remedy that in training…..you don’t want to give your horse that kind of surprise on Derby Day—I wasn’t at all a backer of Rock, but having been up close to that field yesterday, I can say that he stood out—he’s a big guy!
Another point that I ignored—horses that seem to be struggling in works are getting more out of the work than just a maintenance work….
Ron McAnally….gets that one free mating with Candy Ride, I believe…..he has hade that count, and with the same broodmare….
The McAnally’s own a full brother, he’s at the track….
My friend was at Santa Anita and I tried to get him to spot you, per your description. Was it crowded?
NOT crowded! inside position at the walking ring was achievable….parking lot looked like a high school football game attendence.
Matthew, I have to tip my hat to you. You were right about the deep and tiring track at Aqueduct. When backing Prevalence, I should have paid more attention to the significant difference between the track surfaces of Aqueduct and Gulfstream. Prevalence did not take to the track and also encountered some traffic in attempting to earn Derby points. In any event, I’ll throw out that race and keep an eye on Prevalence as I still think he has the potential to be a good one. Then again, how often have I said that about a horse? lol
Good luck with your pick(s) in the Derby.
Glad you were able to be their as an eyewitness. I was super impressed with Rock YW’s natural speed and final kick. He had more in the tank in the final 1/2 f and has the breeding to enjoy more distance. I really like a horse with this style of racing and he doesn’t have to take kickback unless he has a bad start. He’s got good speed and could comfortably avoid getting sprayed if he’s in the top 4. His post and break will determine his fate but he’s a great play at this point. He seemed very comfortable setting the pace the other day and he set it on his own. Nobody was pushing him, so if that’s a pace he enjoys, look out.
I read elsewhere that RYWs final f was in 12.9 seconds. Pretty fast.
The Wood and Oaks horses that raced at Aqueduct are none of them working there, so they may not be getting much of a conditioning edge from Aqueduct.
Most of them have recorded works at Belmont. Some at Parx. It’s possible some gallop at Aqueduct, I suppose? But if some do, not all do, and we don’t know which.
Ok……I HAVE MY DERBY HORSE………..will give out soon……..
This is going to be some derby…….every horse that won a prep…..the fans go crazy over….the favs that lost “were never that good”…….Fans are funny………on paper, the champ looks kinda like a standout, but, i’m going to let him beat me…..
This looks like an upset year to me……gonna be tough to pick…..maybe a dutch is called for…….
Looking forward to finding out who you like. Gotta wait for Concert Tour to see what he does. Right now, could it be my old No. 1 Greatest Honour? Nah, Beyers arent high enough. No one has reached 100 this year.
Correction, just saw that Rock Your world got a 100 Beyer.
Glad it wasn’t a 99. They can always adjust it later, like they do.
Steve will have EQ #1…………..
Dont even try to predict what I’m doing because I’m lost. This will not be conventional or ratonal.
Non-rationality would be a great name for a racehorse, Steve!!!
Certainly one owned by me,
Steve Haskin –
Congratulations to anyone smart enough to bet the winner of the Wood Memorial and/or SA Derby. I was not one of them. Think I will take a break from all of this…for seven days. Do some gardening and start putting together my Fantasy Football team for September, an auction draft LOL. Hope I snap out of it in time for the post parade of the Arkansas Derby. LOL.
7.5 Furlongs
I think Steve will return to the Dozen on Monday. No idea what he makes of the Bizarro Memorial race. Maybe he’ll have Dynamic One in there because of the ridiculously wide trip before getting nipped at the wire. Here’s my prediction of his Week 12 rankings:
Known Agenda
Essential Quality
Rock Your World
Concert Tour
Greatest Honour
Hot Rod Charlie
Highly Motivated
Midnight Bourbon
Soup and Sandwich
Helium
Dynamic One
O Besos
Good list Eddie; i would drop 3 horses on your list (Helium and Dynamic One and O Besos and add the following 2: Medina Spirit, Roman Cent ( we will see if he shows up again), and Mandoloun, O Besos i would have but do not looks like will be eligible.
Thanks, Jeff. Yeah, Roman Centurium will go in the Ark Derby if he’s recovered. Mandaloun? Can’t see it after such a bad race. O Besos needs to run in the Ark Derby (a 3rd will probably be enough) or the Lexington (needs to win).
Edit: Centurian
Having a hard time with No. 1. Going back and forth, but there is one thing separating the Top 3 and even top 5 and that might be the decidng factor. No 1 could easily change a few times in the next 4 weeks but then again maybe not.
Well, I’m glad you cleared that up. LOL.
Steve:
I have to thank you yet again: because if you, I put $50 on Rock Your World at 40-1 offshore a week ago! I live in Las Vegas, if I cash, next time you are here, steak dinner on me!
That is awesome. Well done and good luck. Youre gonna have fun the next four weeks. But I am a vegetarian so a good pasta dinner will suffice or just let me loose at a buffet. Better still I’ll take 10 percent of your winnings Lol
I was at the walking ring, talking to a photographer, and Rock Your World stood out, I bet on Dream Shake, Rock was a foot longer and taller and 150lbs bigger (looked like)…
He did it Steve…going away ! 🙂
“JC says:
March 29, 2021 at 10:59 am
Finally gave up hope on Olympiad making the Derby, who I bet on in the Future Wager 2, hopped on Rock Your World yesterday in Future Wager 5 at 31/1. Should be an interesting Santa Anita Derby !
Reply
Steve Haskin says:
March 29, 2021 at 12:26 pm
If he should the SA Derby that will be the bet of the year,
Reply
JC says:
March 29, 2021 at 1:10 pm”
Re
That was impressive, but not as impressive as you getting him at 31-1, Lol
Hmmmmmm, guess RYW liked the dirt!?
Where’s Bill Dawson……we got a good price in that last pool my friend!! I’ll take the 31-1
Hey Bruce
Our belief in Rock Your World was not misguided. Now it’s on to the Kentucky Derby, with our win tickets (at 31-1) close at hand.
In addition, I boxed RYW with ALL in the $2.00 exacta wagers.
Good luck to you Bruce.
Hey Bruce
I forgot to mention, I hit the superfecta ($173.50) and the Super Hi-5 ($717.70). I had a good day today.
Hey thats awesome! Just adds to the thrill of the day!!
Nobody spots quality like our host.
Yeah Steve is on an absolute roll this year!!
Yep, he nailed it!
Lol. Thank you Eddie, that was very gratifying. The last sentence of my comment above says it all. Ssometimes you can just tell when a horse is special even when he hasnt even run on dirt. When I saw his turn of foot and his two monster gallop outs I knew we were on to somthing. Whoever bet him in the FW, well done.
Ha! It wasn’t me! My FW bets looked so good a couple of weeks ago. Now they look like Marilyn Manson.
Is that somewhere between Marilyn Monroe and Charles Manson?
I do believe that’s how he came up with the name. Good guess, assuming you’re unfamiliar with him and the band. 🙂
Rock looks like an older horse….
I’m at the rail….was he on wrong lead?….couldn’t tell didn’t see replay
Yes, he was on his wrong lead!
Wrong lead then right lead then wrong lead
Yes! Thats wI thought I saw—can you say PEAKING? Can you say 82 Beyers #’s were a “system failure “, you can’t judge turf times like dirt times!
I watched the gallop out after the race, impressive again, and then the walk out after the race, it seems as though he didn’t even take a DEEP breathe!
He always like that after a race. One of the Reasons I loved what I saw in his first two races
Looks like his daddy…wow!
Rock looks like a winning horse.
Hey! How goes it?
Hi Steve! I’ve greatly enjoyed your Derby Dozen and other articles for several years now. Did Essential Quality run as well as you expected, or did Highly Motivated run much better than you expected? It seems Highly Motivated was better competition for Essential Quality than most thought he would be.
Thank you very much, Kristi. Essential Quality had the exact prep he needed. This will set him up perfectly for the Derby. He needed a tough race.
EQ really needed a hard race and HM was looking like he was ready for a top effort. Will be interesting to see how they each come out of it.
As expected, Javier Castellano attempted to steal the Blue Grass with the only real speedy horse who had a track record at Keeneland.
Essential Quality got what he needed: a hard fought win to set him for the big Day…!
There is no handicapping tool that can measure the will to win.
Personally, not impressed with EQ at all…. Go ahead folks and make him the favorite….
Two very good colts battled all the way around. Final eighth for both was 12 3/5. Not saying either will win the Derby, but both of them are legitimate.
EQ is a champ, and a horse will have to earn it beating him, but I don’t see value or dominance…
Hey Jeff, are you “impressed” with EQ now?
I have to pull a pro vet on this one. Does anyone remember my prediction of a dogfight between EQ and HM with EQ prevailing by a head?
Now I do! LOL. Good call. It’s nice to have a logical finish after the Bizarro Wood.
Thank you Eddie. Going to be an interesting list from Steve this week. Rock Your World another one with a great pedigree. Steve called it on Rock Your World. Steve said he could be special and he does look special. I started liking him more after seeing him pre-race. Medina Spirit messed up my exacta. I overlooked RYW in the last Derby futures exacta. He is the one I don’t have in my box that I wish I did. He could definitely ruin it for me.
Wood Mem very competitive race. Everybody in it a complete throw out for the Derby. Tee them up for Peter Pan. Prevalence a sprinter/ miler – further he goes the less he likes it!
Well, THAT blew up my Derby 20 (and it’s only the first of the three preps!). Disappointed for Prevalence, but I never thought Risk Taking was a world beater. He sure wasn’t today.
Pletcher with four (4) horses in the Derby … history repeats itself…!
Uh…what happened? I think the first six horses after 4f were all out of the money…with that pace.
Going into the Wood Memorial, I did think this was showcasing slower animals. It didn’t disappoint. Think the top 4 will prevail in the KD…
My top 4: CT, GH, MS, and EQ….
I overlooked Bourbonic but that is a heck of a pedigree. Did the Russians hack all of the timers? Crowded Trade ran good, maybe he can get into the Derby and improve. Another third for one of my top Derby horses. Pletcher at 72-1 is crazy.
That’s 40 points now for Crowded Trade, which should be enough to get in the Derby gate.
Woohoo !! Thanks Eddie, that makes my day.
Very demanding track indeed. The split and final times for the previous 9F Stakes were amazingly slow:
Modernist in the Excelsior Stakes == > (:25.54, :52.08, 1:17.29, 1:41.73, 1:54.38)
Search Results in the Gazelle Stakes (:24.88, :50.09, 1:15.06, 1:40.70, 1:54.14)
like running on dunes…!
if the winner of the Wood Memorial is able to run faster than 112 seconds he would be a serious animator in the Derby…
So the two 9f stakes were run in 1:54 1/5 and 1:54. This is some way to prep for the Kentucky Derby. Good way to dull a horse. Slow is OK but what are they doing to get the track this slow? Its not November anymore. Safety is good, but tracks this slow take a lot out of a horse.
Plus it looks like closers have absolutely no chance. Maybe same for stalkers!
I wonder what the time will be for the Wood ? 113? 112 and change?
112 seconds and a half
I was just watching a clip of the end of it and it looked to me like the final time was over 117 seconds.
Okay, official time at Bloodhorse.com is 1:54:49, so that’s over 114 seconds but certainly in line with the other stakes races mentioned earlier.
If Prevalence (or any runner for that matter) gets the lead in 50 and change, look out.
Wow! I heard that Aqueduct was a tiring track, but the result and time of the Wood was ridiculous. Prevalence obviously didn’t care for the track and encountered traffic problems. There’s such a pronounced difference between the track surfaces of Gulfstream and Aqueduct that, in retrospect, I wonder if his connections would have been better served if they had opted for Oaklawn instead?
My only consolation regarding Prevalence is that I resisted the temptation to bet him in the futures. Whew! Back to the drawing board.
I’ve been been tracking IVY LEAGUE as her pedigree and frame warrant… Today Smith takes over on her as a warm up for DEFUNDED. 8/1
I always look to your recommendations and this year, with your new site, it is even more impressive. You give honest accessment and knowledge makes the racing easier to understand. And your honesty is much apreciated.
Thats very kind of you, Peggy. Thank you so much. Please come back.
Looking forward to reading your take tomorrow.
Laurel River just now Santa Anita..the other Bob….1:15 3/5 gonna Beyer high and the horse walking into the winners circle—looked like he hadn’t even run! Now it’s off to Santa Anita for me! I’ll be at the walking ring for the Derby, tall…black mask….white t-shirt and red/white hat yelling for Kent to bring in another $40 winner (he had one earlier…)….
Laurel River went :44 flat, by the way…won by 4……
Stakes race 1:54 and change? Aqueduct is deeper than Santa Anita, when I saw the time I thought it was 1 3/16……
You’re late. Lol
They just ran the Excelsior Handicap in a tick under 1:54 2/5
And they were well clear of third!!!
Lets see what they run the Gazelle in
W/P on Brooklyn Strong (ML 6-1) in the Wood and Hidden Stash (ML 20-1) in the Blue Grass. Also hoping for and expecting a solid run from Risk Taking. Can’t find a good value pick in the SA Derby. The last time that Baffert won the SA Derby with a favorite that wasn’t odds on?: Indian Charlie, 1998. Just wish I felt strongly about a runner other than Medina Spirit.
If Untreated can finish second in BG he likely will be ranked in Top 5 depending on what happens in the other races. he will be a top horse one day.
If he does finish 2nd or win, I’ll be looking forward to your commentary on Monday, particularly about the trainer change. Team Valor hasn’t had a Derby horse in quite a while.
Brooklyn looks good, I put a few bucks on him to win.
I’m going to Santa Anita today, mot getting there toll around the 7th race…always a treat going to The Great Race Place! Whomever decided to install those mountains as a backdrop was a genius! (Hehe)….
great to see fans again, Have a great time.
Thanks Steve! Hey there’s a three year old in race five at Keeneland named Joe Frazier…I hear he paddles hard left!
He’ll be smokin
$23.60 for his win…and yes–it was hard-fought!
LOL. Why haven’t they done that at Gulfstream?
Enjoy!
I think The Great One sends, as will Rock Your World, think Prat will sit chilly with Dream Shake….IF…The Great One is alone on the lead he could get brave….
watch for Parnelli to also show speed. I know theyre sending the great one
Excellent commentary on Prevalence, Dewey. He is certainly a talented colt, but my guess is that he’ll be the post-time favorite while getting a huge class test and going around two turns for the first time at an additional furlong. I’m surprised there isn’t more talk about Risk Taking, who’s proven at the distance as much as any Derby hopeful.
You’re right, Eddie. Risk Taking is to be taken seriously as he is experienced at 1 1/8 m. Also, he is a brother of Prevalence since they both have Medaglia D’Oro as their daddy. To spread the MD connection, Brooklyn Strong also won at 1 1/8 m (Remsen) and has Medaglia D’Oro as his grandsire. How ’bout dem apples? The pace is the key to the Wood. Personally, I would like Prevalence to attend the pace in 3rd or 4th as I fear he will be pressured if on the lead. In any event, I think one should not be surprised if an offspring of Medalia D’Oro wins the Wood.
As Harvey Pack would say….. “May the horse be with you”!
Hey! How about a gold medal 🙂 exacta box with Prevalence, Risk Taking, and Brooklyn Strong? I’m giving serious consideration to Brooklyn Strong for the win. He should be a good price in a wide-open race. His dad won the Wood and his granddad just missed in one of the greatest Wood Memorials ever! And Brooklyn beat Known Agenda!!
I am going for a trifecta box: 4 Risk Taking, 5 Dynamic One, 6 Prevalence, 8 Weyburn.
Might be including Brooklyn Strong (underneath) after I see him in the post parade… if the son of Wicked Strong wins this being a bit behind in the trail (training wise) he will be taking good money in the Derby.
Dynamic One would make it a nice payout! Don’t know what to make of his maiden win. Have you ever seen such slow fractions? Absolutely … Brooklyn would be well bet in the Derby with a win today. Tough task with just one prep.
I boxed Prevalence with Crowded Trade….deep surface Prevalence might just stop….but he has talent, he goes when you step on the gas!
Matthew, that’s something I forgot to mention. Tyler Gaffalione says he can’t wait to get to the bottom of Prevalence, the point being they haven’t asked him for speed yet. The best is yet to come.
For the record, I am betting an exacta key box with Prevalence o/u Risk Taking, Brooklyn Strong and Weyburn. Hang on to your hats, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.
Of the three major preps to be run today, the Wood Memorial is the race that will get my undivided attention. There are few races that I’ve looked forward to with such anticipation as I’m a huge fan of Prevalence who faces a big test today.
Everyone will agree that his debut was impressive but there have been a few who were critical of his second race in an optional allowance. They say he regressed with slower speed figures. I agree that in the allowance win Prevalence did not display the wow factor as he did when he broke his maiden. At first, I was concerned that maybe he wasn’t as good as I thought he was due to the modest margin of victory over a field he should have dominated. Then, after listening to Jimmy Bell and Brendan Walsh comment after the race, I realized that they were using the allowance to 1) evaluate conditioning for distance (he ran an extra 1/8 mile after the finish) and 2) to determine if Gaffalione could teach him to rate (which he did just after he broke from the gate). So, Prevalence gave his connections what they wanted to see.
The next test they gave him before moving forward was to check his energy level. The horse answered with a 4f bullet work of 47.60. That result gave the green light to proceed to the Wood for a test for class.
Can Prevalence prevail against higher competition? We will know the answer after 6:00 pm. today. If he passes this test finishing 1st or 2nd, he will get his ticket punched to Louisville. Prevalence is in good hands with the Goldolphin team. Sheik Mohammed, Jimmy Bell and Brendan Walsh wouldn’t point this horse to the Derby if they didn’t think the horse wasn’t ready. He has both the breeding and temperment to give a good account of himself in the Derby.
Get ‘er done, Prevalence, show ’em what your made of and make your daddy proud.
Oops. See above.
Agree, this year the Wood Memorial is the most intriguing of the three preps….
Picked up my Friday Form, tomorrow is the biggest day of Kentucky Derby preps! Pucture of Medina Spirit on the cover, and I harkened back to those great Peb big-day covers! Before me and my friends would sit down to handicap, we bantered about the Racing Form COVER!
Those were classic. I used to watch Peb draw them in his office.
Prat takes over on DREAM SHAKE for Joel tomorrow as he heads East. Prat has Derby Day experience and has brought in a coupe of horses at monster odds in the past doing it the hard way closing thru traffic to set up some big exotic payoffs getting to the CD wire. The time DREAM SHAKE spent down on the rail during mid stretch in his last makes him the Foil to that favorite who was right along side.
My win bets are in Dream Shake, Crowded Trade, Highly Motivated.
Joel broke the maidens of Dream Shake, Rock Your World and Law Professor….
Going to try an east coast to west coast $20 place parlay with Candy Ride sired horses; Candy Man Rocket in the Wood(12-1), Rombauer(Twirling Candy) in the Blue Grass(15-1) and finish with Rock Your World at Santa Anita(4-1).
That’s a bold move with Candy Man Rocket, DES. As much as I love longshots, that’s quite a stretch. But good luck!
2nd would be ok.
Steve’s comments supporting Rock Your World’s prospects are flashing in neon lights every time I read them.
I went back to watching his two wins on turf and I could see what Steve meant with “monster gallop-outs” … it took like 300 meters for Umberto Rispoli to pull Rock Your World up after his mile win … the Jockey seemed tired not by pushing to win but by trying to stop the son of Candy Ride after the race.
Rock Your World workouts signal that he is similarly fast and strong on dirt…!
John Sadler has been successful with sons of Candy Ride entering the Derby (i.e. Sidney’s Candy and Candy Boy).
Also, noteworthy is that Sadler’s Line of David defeated Super Saver (Subsequent Derby winner) going wire to wire at Oaklawn.
But perhaps more relevant is the fact that the veteran trainer took Line of David to win the 2010 Arkansas Derby trying dirt for the first time … sounds familiar?
No wonder John Sadler got his highest ROI with horses going from turf to dirt, so he is more than capable to take Rock Your World to the Derby.
I would like to see Umberto Rispoli getting a chance to run in the Derby as I believe he is a star in the making… The Italian is thriving and competing with Andrea Atzeni and Cristian Demuro to be the successors to Frankie Dettori.
It is not usual to see a winner of the Santa Anita Derby without Graded Stakes experience but Life is Good’s vacancy might very well be filled by a fresh well-meant prospect.
Interessante!
Gracias Señor Eddie Murphy…!
Talking about the Santa Anita Derby… I will be playing a humble trifecta wheeling (3) Rock Your World first or second with (7)Medina Spirit, (10) Defunded and (2)Dream Shake.
What is your take on Defunded? … this horse could be surprising everyone this Saturday…
if Baffert was able to make a Panama based horse named Indian Express to almost winning the Santa Anita Derby after just a 6.5 furlong listed race imagine what can he do with this new prospect bred to be a stayer.
That was the Italian spelling, Signor Maan. In honor of Umberto Rispoli. LOL. Defunded? With Baffert, anything is possible. This is a G1 race with only one graded stakes winner, so I certainly wouldn’t rule out Defunded in a tri.
Grazie per il tuo commento Eddie F… E buona fortuna a te
🙂
The other Baffert, and you get Mike Smith who has won the last three SA Derbys
The only thing to beware of besides the dirt debut are his two slow Thoro-Graph figs, but that was on grass and hopefully he can improve a lot on dirt. Still hard to fgure how 6f in 1:08 1/5 can be consdiered slow but they know what theyre doing.
Good points Steve.
I got the impression that all these ranking tools don’t apply to grass as well as they do for dirt.
Not being sure how Thoro-Graph worked with other horses moving from grass to dirt but I can say that Brisnet and Equibase Figures are close to useless in that department.
For instance, Tarantino sported Brisnet and Equibase SF’s around 77 before jumping to 96 and 90 on dirt (behind Greatest Honour). I can bring many other examples of that discrepancy.
So, Rock Your World measured in the high 90’s on turf in these two systems along with his powerful late kick suggest that he will be doing at least 102 … enough to win in my view…
not so much using it as a tool than making him more unknown by not being able to use figs tp handicap him
Welcome aboard the Rock Your World bandwagon. I’ve been aboard since his maiden win back in January.
This colt is bred to run all day, and “could” be a carrier of the X-Factor large-heart gene. I placed a C-Note on his nose to win, at 31-1, in KD Futures Pool 5, and keyed on top with ALL underneath, in the $2.00 Exacta wagers. I firmly believe RYW will surprise a lot people that have dismissed this cold as strictly a turf runner.
Good luck Nelson Maan.
Thank for your reply Bill … better late than never !…LOL
Good luck to you in all your wagers.
His works are NOT impressive……..that is just wrong
Roman Centurion is out of the Santa Anita Derby. Trainer Callahan unhappy with how he trained. Will have him checked out; if he’s fine, will re-route to Arkansas Derby or Lexington Stakes.
Sorry those of you who got him at 41-1 in a future pool.
Aarrgghh! But that’s OK. I have 27 other future wagers at 40-1. 😉
Sounds like you are well covered.
Probably not. 🙂 But Risk Taking tomorrow gives me hope.
Steve, I’ll try to get a discussion going here after a string of Walks Into a Bar jokes seems to have ended serious discussion. What clown started that tomfoolery??
Tomorrow we’ll see four top contenders going two turns for the first time: Crowded Trade, Weyburn, Defunded, and Highly Motivated. A week or two ago here I wondered if Maximum Security was the only horse to finish first in the Derby after going two turns just once. Well, I’ve looked back to 1970 and I didn’t find another. There were at least a couple, such as Big Brown, that had just a 2-turn turf race prior to a 2-turn final prep.
I’m inclined to think this isn’t a meaningful discovery, as the most important consideration is that a horse has navigated two turns and run well — regardless of the number of career opportunities. What do you think?
Who knows anything anymore. I do know Jerkens said he is inclined to skip the Derby no matter he does in he Wood and wait for the Belmont. Good luck convincing the owners that if he wins.
How can trainer or owner pass on the Derby IF Weyburn wins big (either the eye test, figures, or whatever)? I’m not betting on him to win the Wood. But if he does win, I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t go to Louisville.
Millie Ball, Bob Baffert and Steve Haskin walk into a bar. The bartender says- “Millie Ball !!!! I’m a huge fan of yours. Let me buy you and your friends a drink. What’ll you have?” Bob whispers into Millie’s ear, then into Steve’s ear. Millie and Steve say, “We’d like a Concert Tour. Make it a triple.”
After his distance limitations were exposed in the FOY, Drain the Clock is back where he belongs, in a 7 furlong sprint race.
He’s entered in the G3 Bay Shore Stakes, at Aqueduct, on Saturday 4-3, (race #4). He’s 1/2 on the morning line odds, with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. As he matures, he could turn out to be one of the top sprinters in the country. We’ll see.
It’ll be interesting to see if Drain the Clock can bring his ‘A’ game to Aqueduct. Sometimes these speedy types are monsters at Gulfstream Park only. A pity some warmth didn’t follow him north. Good luck.
He did.
Saffie Joseph Jr. is doing very good work.
SA Derby sure looks like the weakest of the three to me. I wonder if anyone else sees it that way. I am much more excited about watching the Wood and the Blue Grass. The three preps walked into a bar. Bartenders asks what they would like. SA Derby says, you choose, anything but a Baffert. Wood says a Crowded Trade with lots of ice. Blue Grass says- A Highly Motivated ice tea with a splash of EQ.
In ascending order of ‘race excitement.’ 3. Wood Memorial 2. Blue Grass Stakes 1. Santa Anita Derby. The most interesting colt to look forward to is undoubtedly Essential Quality. For me, the Santa Anita Derby has the potential of being an enthralling race. To each their own.
Good ‘walks into a bar’ joke, Eddie. Here’s another for ya:
A horse walks into a bar.
The shocked bartender points a finger his way in alarm and yells, “Hey!”
The horse says, “You read my mind, buddy.”
That’s an oldie but goodie. Here’s the worst horse joke EVER: Where do horses go when they’re sick? The horspital.
That could get you banned.
Where are the Community Rules? LOL
Community Rules are in the by-laws within an enigma within the you’re sayin, what are you sayin.
Groan, and Steve’s right (see below).
Hey! It’s not MY joke. I said it was the WORST horse joke EVER.
Did you hear the one about the guy who bet on a horse because it had excellent breeding? As soon as the horse left the gate, he stopped and closed it behind him.
That one cost $1.5 million as a yearling and whose great, great grandsire on the dam side is Good Manners.
LOL. Out of Charm School.
Baffert, O’Neill, Pletcher, and McGaughey walk into a bar. The bartender asks, “What’ll you have?” They say in unison, “The usual.”
Those four trainers have won 8 of the past 11 Derbies. Odds are pretty good that the record will soon be 9 of 12. But will first-time Derby trainer Brad Cox be the spoiler? Four weeks and two days to find out.
Being Shug has won only one along with other trainers, I would be more impressed with only three trainers have won 7 of the last 11. Also, 9 of the last 11 trainers to win the Derby are in the Hall of Fame, That last stat is something I will be meentioning in the Derby Rankings at some point
Yeah, I thought of that (3 winning 7 of last 11) after posting. 🙂 So it looks like the best trainers are more likely to win the Ky Derby than other trainers. Who knew? Will there ever be another Cam or Chip?
Can’t beat the years 1991-1999 when Lukas, Baffert, and Zito won 7 of 9 Derbies.
Good to hear your buddy Bob will be getting the sales topper $2.6 million Nyquist yearling. So we’ll probably be talking about him in 2 years or one of the other many high priced well bred yearlings that will be forwarded to him. The Baffert train gets refuelled every year by owners desperate to win a Derby.
Sure, interesting not alot of talk regarding so many from that barn who crashes and burns.
Fortunately, Triple Tap is being given every chance.
Steve would agree but even these trainers had to start once somewhere. Mr Riddle was a fan of fox hunting until he got Man O War and that was a first. Sure the trainers that win more get the better owners, better bred ones but seriously does that always work out in the end? You know the history of the sport as well as anyone. This is a sport of hopes and dreams. I would focus on the horse. just saying. A lot of sweat, hard work for some of these trying to break through. What the heck like the under dog trying to reach for the glory. Godolphin with all their money still trying to win this one race. One might ask why they have yet to do so?
Crowded Trade ran so ugly…..in his maiden race……that i actually think BAD might be GOOD……..this horse doesnt know what he is doing……he improved 2nd race 95 beyer?….not knowing what youre doing?…….breaks bad……head is way too up and flat…..it is ugly…….hate horses like this………but what if he improves?……..it looks like he needs different bit or something….BAD might be GOOD…….
To quote a line from “Fargo”: “You’re sayin’… What’re you sayin’?”
Very interesting. I like it.
My response was to pro vet, but Eddie’s comment was very cool too.
From Vekoma, to Hidden scroll………i will point out again EQ paddles alot front left……on paper, looks like a standout to win KY derby……but i decided not to bet future….when will he go bad?…….dunno……
I have mentioned the paddling many times it wont stop him from winning Derby but down the road who knows?
I remember Bill Farish once saying that he had only seen one progeny of Mr. Prospector that had perfect conformation – Prospectors Delite.
Essential Quality is undefeated, what’s wrong with him? There’s your answer.
Agreed!
Of course there’s nothing wrong with EQ. Just another senseless Morse code comment from PV. “When will he go bad?” LOL. He compares EQ to Hidden Scroll, who was never a serious contender for anything, let alone the Derby. But he’s still racing. Vekoma’s only bad race was the Derby, and the following year he won the G1 Carter and G1 Met Mile.
Storm Cat was natorious for passing on offset knees and bad temprements but nonetheless, they could surely run.
Seattle Slew’s conformation wasn’t exactly stellar, he did okay.
You are out of your mind……..saying it doesnt matter is dumb…..i think on paper he looks like a cinch…..but saying these things dont matter is being ignorant….you act like horses dont go off form…..those horses had problems……
So to you, only winning matters……forget everything…..chalk wins every time.
I love how you create arguments out of whole cloth. I never said it doesn’t matter. I never said horses don’t go off form. I never said that only winning matters or that chalk wins every time. Your entire post is … irrelevant … as … usual.
And of course LIG was perfect……..right?……
I also was impressed by UNTREATED…….i commented he looked like a good horse….should improve….
Did everything right last time. Huge turn of foot.
I the words of Tony G. , DEFUNDED fully “qualifes” his West Coast gate position on Saturday… MIKE S. seems to think so too.
He’s a very young colt having never raced two turns but hey, this is the new era of racing isn’t it?
His foundation may plumb deeper than appears at first glance… and his blood, size and athleticism conform to my taking his side with DREAM SHAKE and a couple others in the exotics.
Defunded has…only won a maiden race…not even run 8 furlongs yet and now he’s going NINE furlongs, with the outside draw? 8-1 ML, not for me, I’ll let him beat me, and tip my hat to you if he does….
Hello Steve, 3 big Derby Preps this weekend. Roman Centurian should save ground with PP1 and have pace to close into in the SA Derby. He needs more points so hopefully he will be rolling in the stretch. Good outside draw PP8 for Weyburn in the Wood . He is tactical and should be able to stay close to Prevelance and go after him in the stretch. Hoping Weyburn shines so his connections send him to the Derby where he should thrive at 1 1/4.
Prevelance will at least get 2nd.
RE: Blue Grass Stakes
Since finishing 3rd in the Gotham, where he bobbled at the start, Highly Motivated has been flying under the radar, and hasn’t appeared on the Derby Rankings since Week 8. If he can replicate his Nyquist Stakes performance, rating off torrid fractions of 21.77, 44.65, 1:08.64 and winning going away by 4 1/4L, in 1:14.99 (new track record), he just might give Essential Quality all he can handle. The question is can he carry his speed over the 9 furlong Blue Grass distance?
He’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line, so he’s not exactly flying under the radar, but I look for him to be around 5-1 at post time. In the super, I’ll key Highly Motivated and Essential Quality on top, in the first two slots, with Hidden Stash, Untreated, Rombauer and Keepmeinmind, underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
3,4/ 3,4/ 1,2,5,9/ 1,2,5,9
Safe trips to all.
Bill, I agree with most of what you wrote about Highly Motivated. He should have the speed to challenge for the early lead. As you say, the question is the extra furlong. But his comeback race after 4 months off was a thing of beauty…a perfect race to build on, from 3 lengths back at the first call to 1 3/4 back at the finish. It was an even run, but a fast run. I wouldn’t count on his post-time odds being 5-1 though. I guess it depends on how heavily EQ is bet — if EQ goes off at 2-5, maybe HM could be higher than his morning line. But what the heck is Hidden Stash doing at 20-1? That seems ridiculously high for an improving colt that, as Steve wrote, might have won the TB Derby if not for his pre-race antics.
Bill, excellent idea for an exacta (HM / EQ). If anyone is going to upset the 2YO champ in the Blue Grass, he’s the one. Throw in Untreated for the trifecta. (Will pay about $40, LOL).
Thanks Mary Ellen, and good luck to you as well.
Just as a suggestion, you might consider boxing those three. Untreated appears to have plenty of upside, moving forward.
Each race on Saturday has at least one top contender purchased for a relative pittance.
SA Derby — Medina Spirit, $35k (and a Florida-bred, too)
Blue Grass — Hidden Stash, $50k
Wood Memorial — Brooklyn Strong, $5k < not a typo (NY-bred)
I always root for this type, even if I'm betting on another horse.
I always look up action history too…JCE Racing took a bit of a sh***kicking on Brooklyn lol it’s a funny business, for sure.
I’m not familiar with JCE Racing and the Brooklyn Strong story. What’s it about?
I just commented on his auction history….if I look up a horse on Equibase, I usually check his/her auction history…his was unusual…usually goes the other way. He started out at 30.000, ended up going for 5000. I’d say the final buyer got a deal, no?
Just looked that up. I see what you mean. DAMN good deal!
I just commented on his auction history….if I look up a horse on E base, I usually check his/her auction history…his was unusual…usually goes the other way. He started out at 30.000, ended up going for 5000. I’d say the final buyer got a deal, no?
sorry for the dbl posting…it took a bit to post, so I re posted.
Hidden Stash’s sire Constitution is becoming a top sire, he gets runners. I like the horse, maybe lite of the figures–he always comes with his run, and is learning to change leads—a left-lead type with a rail draw isn’t bad at all, maybe he can stay down there and stay on his left lead!
Steve, hope you are well. Have you heard anything on Unbridled Honor? Is the only other option at this point the AR Derby? That doesn’t seem like a Todd Race. I suppose it’s possible that Todd wants to give him more time, because he could have entered him in the BG or the Wood……….He’s doing extremely well, so it’s clear he’s going to run soon – that is, he’s not going to be getting any time off.
Thanks!
Todd has done well in the Arkansas Derby when he does run in it. Right now, no one is going in there other than 3 or 4 horses so I would say there is a chance he’ll show up. If I hear anything I will post on here.
Who does Millie Ball like? That is the question.
If Millie were to stray from the Baffert horses I’d be surprised. Lol.
Her hubby used to be Bob’s assistant—they are all friends….Millie Ball is a sweetheart!
What happened to Candy Man Rocket at Tampa? Did he have equipment problems?
He’d rather not talk about that.
😉
Oh man! I need to do some serious aerobic training in the next 72 hours to survive Saturday. Three enormously impactful races within 37 minutes!
You should run 3 and 3/8 miles. Make it an even four miles. Tomorrow so you have time to recover. I might get the rocking horse out of the attic and watch them on it. Yeeha. They had the mechanical ones outside of our supermarket when I was a kid. I got to ride one once in awhile but I can’t count the number of times my mom said not today. I think it cost a nickel but not sure. When I started getting my quarter allowance I spent it on baseball cards. I think by then I thought I was too old for the horse but I still wanted to ride it but it was for little kids and I was five, too old.
I choose the rocking horse over the 4-mile run. 😉
Do you by some chance have a Rogers Hornsby card?
Crowded Trade wins Wood !!!!!!!!!! That boy can run.
“Not today”, Porgy. LOL
No.
I think Brooklyn Strong will be ready and I’m rooting for Velasquez, would be a great story. People forget he beat Known Agenda in the Remsen. I know he wasn’t who he is today, but I think it means something to beat a classy horse even if it was before their best efforts. Weyburn Brooklyn Strong exacta on Saturday!
His sire won the Wood in 2014.
Ex box 1-2 in the Wood.
Prevalence drew the No. 6 post in the Wood. This will be his third lifetime race and all 3 are from post 6. Good omen, no doubt.
My only concern for Prevalence’s chances is the condition of the track. I understand that the Aqueduct dirt surface can be heavy and tiring? I’m hoping that Prevalence being on the light side can simply skip over the track without being weighed down as a larger horse might be. Do any theories exist about light versus heavier horses handling a tiring track???
666? Hmmm
LOL! Hide the children!
The devil you say. Can you recommend a good exorcist? lol
In China, the number 666 is considered to be lucky. It is interpreted as “everything goes smoothly” due to the number 6 having the same pronunciation as the Chinese character which means smooth. At least that’s what I’ve read in Wikipedia… hope they’re right.
…is that “Tubular Bells” in the background?
Prevalence for the home run.
I like him!
We have written about the feat of Tapit as a sire producing at least one Derby runner since 2012 but Curlin has been head-to-head with the marvelous gray since his very first crop.
Palace Malice (the runaway pacesetter in the 2013 Derby) was the best of Curlin’s first crop.
Since then Curlin’s progenies were seen in every Derby except the last two.
Global Campaign (Curlin – Globe Trot by A.P. Indy) seemed like a sure Derby qualifier until he got injured while running the 2019 Fountain of Youth.
Last year was weak for Curlin in the Derby trail with only Shadwell’s Ajaaweed making some waves at Keeneland, Aqueduct and Tampa paths; but he was sidelined for the rest of the year after a 3rd in the Sam Davis.
There was also some hope with Sonneman but he also got injured in April. Another 2020 Derby nominee by Curlin was IDOL who unluckily debuted in September but he is now ranked high in the Handicap Division after his Big Cap win.
In terms of Derby outcomes, Curlin prevails over Tapit with two seconds (Exaggerator and Good Magic). Tapit’s best results were three fourth places with Tacitus as his best after promoted to third in 2019.
In the Sire Lists the two sires have also been close. Curlin was second behind Tapit in the 2015 and 2016 standings by earnings but Curlin bested Tapit in 2019 by $666,522.
Last year Tapit was second behind the record setter Into Mischief with Curlin finishing fourth below Uncle Mo.
Tapit has likewise produced excellent stallions (e.g. Tapizar, Tapiture, Constitution, Frosted, Tonalist) and Curlin is indicating to also be a “sire of sires” given the excellent two first crops of his first Stakes winner Palace Malice. More good things are expected from new sires Vino Rosso, Good Magic, Global Campaign , Connect and even from Keen Ice and Irish War Cry.
Tapit is surfacing as an excellent Broodmare Sire as well with 40 Stakes winners so far. Concert Tour could give Tapit his first Derby as a Broodmare Sire even before winning it with one of his sons… and Soup and Sandwich is not too shabby either…!
It is not farfetched to think that it is just a matter of time for these two great sires to produce a Derby winner.
This year is more promising for Tapit as he will be represented by top contenders Essential Quality and Greatest Honour whereas Curlin’s hope rests on the strong shoulders of Known Agenda.
Youre a world of information, Nelson. Well done.
Thanks Steve … I really appreciate your encouragement and given us space to “empty” the hard disk of our laptops …
*giving
Nelson, I’m not sure where you got your statistical information from but in 2015 Curlin came in 6th on the Sires List, according the The Blood-Horse.
Thanks for catching the typo… should read 2016 and 2017 when Curlin ranked second by earnings behind Tapit
Sorry, Nelson, but in 2017 Tapit came in at no. 5 and Curlin was no. 8. Unbridled’s Song had finally topped the Sire’s List thanks mainly to Arrogate’s $13,338,000.
You’re right with 2016, though. Good post, nonetheless.
Thanks for this excellent analysis of two stellar sires, Curlin and Tapit. I’m a huge Curlin fan, so this is music to my ears. Curlin didn’t win the KY Derby, it maybe Known Agenda will bring home the roses.
Idol is the real deal, I think the handicap division (I should say “older division”, since they hardly offer handicap weights anymore) is strong this year, and the SA Handicap one/two/three was solid—throw in the Dubai Cup winner and we have a pretty good foursome, with Idol at the top, in my opinion.
Thanks for your reply Matthew… you are right about the Handicap Division nomenclature… In fact I was about to change it to Older Division as you suggested… I will use Older Division despite those Stakes called “Handicaps”.
Whenever I recall how Idol won the Big Cap I understand the faith Steve has in Known Agenda … those Curlins are born for the 1 1/4 mile indeed…!
Idol took a wide trip over both turns in the Big Cap, and Joel kept him way out there as he blew past Express Train on the wire—always good to stay out there against another good horse, who might not see him in time—I thought that was the best threesome in the Big Cap in some time, not exactly Broad Brush/Ferdinand/Snow Chief but give ’em time!
Excellent look at Curlin’s progeny in the Derby, Nelson. Some had high hopes for the closer Overtook this year, but apparently he’s off the trail. Jeff Ruby winner Like the King is by Palace Malace. So many great sires have been denied a Derby winner, but I have a feeling that Curlin will get his soon. Maybe sooner than Tapit.
Correction: Palace MALICE
Can we talk?……the UAE Derby. I’ve joined the discussions about many issues related to this race: that there’s never in 20 years been a UAE Derby runner that hit the board in the Ky Derby, yet it’s been elevated to the level of the SA and Florida derbies as a 170-point prep; the difficulty in making comparisons for handicapping and betting–no result chart, no fractions or position at calls in the running lines of the PPs; and no speed figures on which to make comparisons with U.S.-based runners.
However, sometimes the criticism is extreme and unfair as it relates to the worthiness of UAE Derby runners for the Ky Derby. Some folks are blinded by the dramatic failures of Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow. Of course, others point to the aforementioned lack of an on-the-board finish. But we should note that, of the 15 UAE Derby runners that have entered the Ky Derby, 11 of them finished 9th or better. That means those 11 beat at least half the field of U.S.-based runners. A heckuva of a lot of those beaten U.S. runners were battle tested and well bet.
So that’s a pretty good result considering the obstacles that these shippers must overcome. I wouldn’t be surprised by a strong finish by Rebel’s Romance if he comes to Louisville. I won’t be betting on him (for reasons stated in the first paragraph), but I also won’t be denigrating him.
i agree on all points. if you want to let the winner in make it 50 points for first, but why allow the runnerup in when its not a major prep.
Yes, 50 points would be okay. I’d like it to be in early March so that the UAE Derby winner can stay in the U.S. and run in one of the big final preps.
Speaking of the runner-up … Panadol was a late nomination for the TC, according to drf today.
Yes, I read thati in the press release
You would expect Panadol to run now.
Is it CDI, Inc. which determines the point distribution for the KD prep races?
Yes
I don’t consider myself blinded by the losses of Thunder Snow and Mendy–both of whom I thought were top racehorses….my point is merely THIS YEAR’s Dubai race–I thought it was weak.
Hey, Matthew! I wasn’t directing my comments at anyone specifically. It’s just a general attitude that I’ve noticed over the past several years.
… by seeing me in the mirror !
I understand your position about the points distribution for a foreign Stakes.
My view is a bit different… I like overseas horses to try their luck in the Kentucky Derby. This not only enhances the prestige of the Derby but also promote a kind of cross-fertilization. The American Fans would acquire interest in the past and future campaigns of the “Invasores” and correspondingly the foreign fans will have the opportunity to follow the American Triple Crown Series… and perhaps get hooked to an American equine hero or to the Derby Trail … after all the fans are the heart and soul of horse racing… the more the merrier…
Also, American based horses have the opportunity to qualify by traveling to Dubai which is also a portal for big international owners to the Kentucky Derby.
So it is about (horse racing) globalization versus parochialism in my view…
I would leave the 100 points to the UAE Derby because there could be runner-up horses of great talent like Epicharis who almost beat Thunder Snow in an epic battle. This year we really need a pace setter like Panadol to join Midnight Bourbon …
No one would write off or demote the Wood Memorial Stakes just because it has not produced a winner in 19 years or because the winners have not been better than one second and a fourth since Fusaichi Pegasus.
I know … you would say that there is no comparison between both Stakes … and you don’t like Ruby Steaks but at the end we don’t have any saying about qualifying races for the Derby… unless you are named CEO of Churchill Downs Inc. … then … we can talk!
You make some very good points Nelson. I also would like to see more international horses in the Kentucky Derby. The boost in prestige would be world wide. Although I gather that there is a healthy amount bet on the Derby internationally, I suspect more foreign participation would increase the handle substantially.
Nelson, there’s a lot to process in your reply. First, I thought that I was making a defense in my post of UAE Derby participants. As I mentioned, most of them have finished ahead of a number of top U.S. runners in the Ky Derby. And I have never said anything that can be construed as opposing the appearance of foreign-raced horses in the Ky Derby. I indicated my specific objections in the first paragraph.
Your dreams of international interest are just that…dreams. There’s no evidence that the things you favor and that I object to will ultimately have a positive impact on U.S. racing or international racing.
I understand your comparison of the UAE Derby to the Wood. You could also throw in the Blue Grass, which has an even worse 21st century record than the Wood. However, the Wood has produced 46 starters in the Ky Derby since 2000, with 3 wins, 2 seconds, 6 thirds, and 6 fourths. The UAE Derby has produced 15 Ky Derby starters since its inception in 2000: 0 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds, 0 fourths. All other things being equal, I’d prefer to bet a horse from the Florida, SA, or Ark derbies over a horse from the Wood, BG, or UAE Derby.
I’m happy with having horses from the world over compete against each other in big-money races like the BC Classic and the Dubai World Cup. But the Kentucky Derby is quintessentially an American race, and it’s been so since 1875. What Churchill Downs should be encouraging is the appearance of foreign-raced horses in the Derby preps held between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, not just the one big race in Louisville.
As for ever becoming CEO of Churchill Downs, I wouldn’t have time for that due to my participation in the Haskin blog.
I love your comments on the Derby competitors every week, and this week is no exception. I appreciate your adding Untreated. On another site I posed the question Monday when someone mentioned him, “Who even is Untreated?” Well, I found my answer in your added comments about the runner and I’m so glad I did. I am unsure who I like on top in the SA Derby or how I want to bet it yet, but in the Wood I will try Brooklyn Strong after the confidence the trainer showed in his horse in an interview that gave a sparkling review of the horse’s ability. I mean, in a time when most trainers hedge a bit on their runner’s chances who makes comments like that? In the BG Stakes at Keeneland I will try the 4 on top with some tri or super type combos with the closers and with Untreated, the aforementioned runner. This weekend will be a fun one on the path to Churchill for sure. Good luck to all!
Thanks Sally. Untreated is one of many this year who very promising but total unknowns. We should sort those out on Saturday
Mr. Haskin,
I like John’s horse Saturday. How talented do you believe he could be?
Brown has two very nice colts ready for the Wood Saturday… Both of the Belmont homebody’s have stayed put for the Winter and were also last out handled by Cancel… So His choice to ride… Our choice to bet… I like them both and the subtle the market distinction made between them on the board should be very interesting. Giddy up.
Odd question, but does AP not have any good second crop 3 year olds? I don’t recall seeing any of his offspring on any of the Derby lists. I know it is hard to get one on the Derby trail but I was hoping he might have one that could make some noise this year.
Big Lake was on the trail…until the injury.
Yes, Van Gogh in Europe. Winner of the Group 1, Criterium International at Saint Cloud.
Thank you EddieF and Davids. I appreciate the info!
Known Agenda earned a 101 Brisnet speed rating for the Fla Derby, which is a 7-point improvement from his paid workout last month. Soupie probably got a decent number, but probably not Greatest Honour.
Steve,
Very informative analysis as usual. What’s your take on Rock Your World’s last two works on the main track?
His last work was terrific. Better than the one before.
I’ll get a good look at him, as I decided to attend! An aside—I love She’s Our Charn, Rock’e big sis—and have watched her run in person many times—have not seen Ron there for any of her races….
Thinking he has great potential.
Bluegrass Stakes looks devoid of pace, advantage to the aggressive rider who wants the lead.
Will it be Javier or Luis.
Whoever leads early not sure but I am seeing a dogfight to the end between Highly Motivated and Essential Quality with EQ prevailing by a head. Blue Grass conditioning sets EQ up nicely for a peak performance in the Derby.
There isnt even the slightest hint of a speed horse in here. No one has speed or even close to it. Last time this happened Essential Quality went to the front, and from post 4 I see no other scenario. This race may be over after the first quarter.
Where’s Baffert when you need him
Yep. That’s the likely scenario. What this race needs is a rabbit. Not the equine kind. Too late for that. What I’m thinking is that EQ gets a 2 or 3 length early lead and then a furry little rabbit hops on to the track from the infield and startles EQ just long enough for the other runners to catch up. I’ve seen stranger things happen.
You could be right about EQ, but HM has the fastest last out Brisnet EP fig and bobbled at the break.
HM has yet to try two turns and has had issues at the break on every line of his chart.
With a clean break I would think Castellano tries to keep the inside position and go to the front.
Is EQ bringing his”A” game for a prep race? Don’t squeeze the lemon.
When you only have two starts and the first one was in slop and an easy win I doubt youre going to squeeze the lemon dry unless your horse is incrdibly fragile. EQ is a tough sturdy horse.
I know–SHEESH! Right when I was ready to play Hidden Stash, and his left lead hugging the rail—
Luis more aggressive….
Well, you can’t say the prep races are boring. Infuriating, yes, unpredictable, certainly, but not boring. Some people are sky high on the result while others grumble. Redemption is just around the corner. The result of Florida Derby hasn’t swayed me too much either way. Good to see Live Oak has a runner in the Derby, though.
Another enjoyable read, thanks Steve. The Blue Grass Stakes seems a lock with Essential Quality an overwhelming favorite. Hopefully, Hidden Stash is in the money to ensure a place in the Kentucky Derby field. As for the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial nothing would surprise really. There just isn’t a standout in either race. Good for the punters.
Onward and upward, Caravaggio had a very nice filly, Tenebrism, win at Naas so that’s a positive for his stud career. A Frosted 2 year old colt ran third in the Golden Slipper which was exciting. Good luck in the preps.
The prep races are boring. There…I said it! How many photo finishes have there been? Two? And don’t expect one in the Derby. Not a single photo this century. Time for a photo finish dance.
Well, skip the Blue Grass Stakes because that’s bound to be a ‘walkover’ but you might find the Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial more to your liking, they look very even. Good luck.
The Blue Grass has a good chance of being the most boring prep of the year. No pace at all. EQ goes to the front, race over.
Oh well, at least it’s supposed to be a sunny day. Ha ha
I think the Santa Anita Derby this year will have plenty of pace duelers!
You may well be right, the Santa Anita Derby looks fascinating, on paper anyway, with a multitude of possible winners. An upset wouldn’t be a surprise either. Potentially, the best race of all the preps.
Steve Haskin –
Just saw the Untreated video replay of maiden win at Tampa Bay Downs. After watching and reading about Rebel’s Romance, Dynamic One, Sainthood, and Untreated and their recent races, it’s hard to sort out which ones to follow and perhaps bet on the KD Trail.
As of today, my only future wager still alive is Risk Taking from pool 4. The current odds in Las Vegas are tempting on some of these latecomers. Although I have not seen the replay of Rebel’s Romance recent win, I like what I’ve read about the Godolphin colt. He has some pedigree pop although a bit “grassy”. I believe he has two wins on dirt and might need a little more seasoning with dirt flak, coming from off the pace. I bet Sainthood at Turfway last Saturday and could not help but notice the trouble he encountered in the stretch run.
Another latecomer colt that has not been mentioned very much in recent days is Ottothelegend, trained by Steve Assmussen. He is entered in the SA Derby Saturday.
Would not be surprised if pressure on ownership and breeders to win these big races influences their decision on whether or not to run these young horses in the Kentucky Derby. Provided they have enough qualifying points to make the starting gate.
Can you post link to race? Searching and cannot find it. Don’t have access to equibase at moment to check date of race, to search that way. Thanks
If you are asking for Untreated’s replay you con go to tampabaydownscomracingreplays-details and look for March 6 race N6
Thank you, Nelson!
That was quite impressive, even though the rest of the field looked ordinary. Was that his first or second start?
Second start after disappointing in his debut at Gulfstream
Asmussen in California? Boy, they are really looking for a doorway to the Derby. I wrote about him a while ago but there was no buzz after that.
Hey, 7.5f! Do you mean PRE-entered in the SA Derby? 😉 The connections may have expressed their intent, but entries are taken tomorrow. I have Risk Taking, too. My FW horses have been running in the wrong direction lately.
Looks like that horse is running. I know the reason why, but I cant say in public. wouldnt look good.
Is this blog public?
😉
Of course, that’s what I meant, PRE-entered. My business classes in college did a poor job of explaining PRE-entries for the SA Derby. LOL.
Nate Newby said Sat he’s going….
ANNOUNCEMENT: I have added a comment atop Knocking on the Door on UNTREATED who I didnt realize was running in the Blue Grass Stakes. Please read the comment and if you are able to, watch his last race at Tampa Bay and be prepared to be thrilled by the most impressive turn of foot and burst of speed I’ve seen all year. And watch him totally outdistance his field in the stretch and how perfectly straight he runs down the stretch. He obviously is unproven and likely didnt beat much, but if you want to go strictly by the eye test go watch that race. But as you will read in his comment he is still one race from being ready for this kind of test and his connections are basically taking a shot. All we can do is watch and see if he can pull something out of his hat.
Interesting prospect this beautiful son of Nyquist. His dam, Fully Living, got the same cross as champion 2-year-old filly Halfbridled.
With a lot of bullet workouts Untreated was expected to win his debut (at 4 to 5 odds) while trained by Chad Brown. His transferal to Pletcher worked beautifully as he fired a trio of bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs leading to his impressive win at Tampa …
With Joel Rosario up one can expect to see Untreated staging a ton of running in the homestretch … seems like Essential Quality won’t have an easy Blue Grass after all with Highly Motivated likely exercising an uncontested lead, with Keepmeinmind looking to rebound and the presence of a strong new face with a ton of upside.
there is a story behind all that. if he runs well enough to get in the Derby it will be in the Rankings Monday.
Likewise didn’t know about Untreated in the Blue Grass. His maiden win with a turn time in the 24 second range with a final time only 3 ticks off the track record was very impressive for a second lifetime start. They’ve picked the right spot to take a shot as the Blue Grass is the weakest field of the 3 preps. Good to see that Essential Quality may get some competition as he beat nothing last time. Steve you are truly the Derby maestro. Thanks for keeping us acolytes up to date!
Its the right spot for second, but the other two are wide open for anyone to win.
re: Greatest Honour. That seemed like such an odd ride. Steve, is it possible that the jockey was told to put him in heavy traffic just to see if he could handle it? To find out if they need to avoid that at all cost in the Derby? He has plenty of points to ‘waste’ on that kind of race training. Do trainers ever do stuff like that?
No, Shug did not like the ride
Totally agree, and he seems like the one paced type who can run all day, no need to make him a stone closer and save all kinds of ground. GP doesn’t give much option around the first turn, but Churchill he will have plenty of time to work a trip. The insistence on being down of the rail on the backstretch was mindboggling. Similar in FOY but he didn’t face the field he faced here. All in all I love the horse and this hopefully gives me 12-1, 15-1 instead of 6-1 in the Derby.
Known Agenda’s look as he finished really caught my eye – down low with that neck stuck way out, going like a rocket. He’s my new favorite. So thanks for putting him first 😉
Any thoughts on God Selection? Hardly raced at all, I assume running against less talented competition, but he was right there all the way through the race, won nicely. And what a pedigree – who? LOL – but far back, a lot of good stuff.
I do love reading what you have to say about these guys, especially their quirks.
That’s a horse’s name?
God Selection (Novellist – Ultimate Love by Simboly Kris S) the easy winner of the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan. Bred by the famous Shadai Farm earned 40 points but has not been confirmed to the Derby …
I enjoy looking at peidgrees, but had a hard time finding his, & then didn’t recognize most of the names. Finally dug it up in a sporthorse site. He looked very professional & won so easily – but could he get in the derby with only 40 points?
No horse with “God” in his or her name has ever run in the Kentucky Derby. It just would screw up the betting. Plenty of people would be afraid to bet against him.
Not sure if he is Derby bound though…
as always i enjoy your insight… . you truly are a living legend.
Thank you so much. Thats very kind of you
Steve, loved how you spotted Known Agenda’s beautiful low leveling down action, a thing of beauty, needs just to moved slightly forward and he is the Derby WINNER!!!
Thanks Dan, Im curious what his Thoro-Graph number will be. Probably not really fast because of his inside trip but we’ll see.
I don’t disagree with you often Steve, but Rebels Romance beat up on Godolphon 2nd stringers…a Japanese allowance winner and a Doug O’NEILL NW1X 6 fur turf horse, as well as a couple of fillies….very small pool of horses in Dubai AND weak challengers from overseas, IF the Kentucky Derby is full of those types he’s a contender, I guess!
Panadol is a very good horse. The others he destroyed. One of them was a filly who won the UAE Oaks by 6 1/2 lengths. He was tons the best in that race. you mention the Japanese allowance horse, but What about the Japanese horse who won the Saudi Derby? Not a geat horse but no slouch. With Rebel it was all about the eye test.
As you say, Steve, a good performance always meets the eye and that’s what Rebel’s Romance gave us in the UAE Derby. He covered a lot of ground winning on the outside drive. He displayed good action and won handily. I have no doubt Rebel’s Romance would give a good account of himself if entered in the Kentucky Derby. However, after Prevalence punches his ticket to Louisville this weekend, Sheik Mohammed likely would be content to point Rebel’s Romance to the European classics.
Well…maybe….maybe I’ve just seen this movie before, and before….all those impressive Dubai Derby winners that flounder here, I just think beating up on a very small pool of 3yo’s can be deceiving by nature, I have bet on one, and he finished 6th in the Monarchos Derby over that super fast surface, and it seems whenever a horse wins a race now, he’s “for real”….
I mean…you say this horse won the Saudi Derby, this horse won UAE Oaks, how big is the pool of 3yo’s there? How strong, really, are those fields? It sure seems to me, Godolphin first stringers are over here, now….that race in Dubai looked like an allowance field….to me.
Agree about this guy Steve. His motion is fluid and strong. His head is up as were his ears. Visually this was a stunning performance from a horse who is bred to run all day and It appeared to take nothing out of him either. He deserves a shot at the roses and I hope he hops a plane soon. He’s a big kid and he would have to run against some pretty fast Yanks, but boy does he look powerful.
I did enjoy the Florida Derby. I also like what I saw with Soup and Sandwich. Greatest Honor like you said they will lose and he really had nowhere to go and got boxed in. Known Agenda nice win. So we wait. I do think the post draw makes or breaks the Derby. Looks like the full 20 horse calvary charge likely as well. Looking forward to it.
Have watched some really great Derbies over the years. Mine That Bird and Justify in the fog come to mind. I do hope we get some oversea horses as well. No they haven’t won yet but that day will come.
Sorry but that was Justify in the Preakness, not the Derby but that was still a unique experience like Pharoah in the the downpour. Mike Smith weighed in heavier after that race from all the mud and water in his boots.
Bravazo popped out of that fog at 15-1 and DW Lukas almost spoiled the triple crown
Thanks for this great update. I absolutely Loved Soup and Sandwich and of course HOT ROD CHARLIE. All the races still forthcoming will certainly give a clearer picture. I wish they would keep it smaller for their safety. Looking forward to the Santa anita Derby this Saturday. Safe racing to all the horses and riders.
Steve thank you! The detail in your write ups are by far the best in the sport. Truly great. Appreciate it.
Thanks very much, Jeff
Sometimes I need to put things on paper to have a clear picture. The month of March has been like no other March that I can recall in recent Derby trail history. Here’s the deal on how post-time favorites have fared:
Gotham:
Highly Motivated, 4-5
3rd
Tampa Bay Derby:
Candy Man Rocket, 8-5
11th
San Felipe:
Life Is Good, 1-2
1st (subsequently injured)
Rebel:
Caddo River, 6-5
5th
Louisiana Derby:
Mandaloun, 6-5
6th
UAE Derby:
Panadol, ?
2nd
Jeff Ruby:
Tarantino, 5-2
11th
Florida Derby:
Greatest Honour, 4-5
3rd
Is anyone confident that Essential Quality will win the Blue Grass Stakes? Or any other favorite in the next two weeks?
Great stats, Eddie and very revealing. welcome to racing 2021. I changed Elusive Quality to Essential Quality.
Thanks! …. and THANKS!
Good observation Eddie… just to complement your post I gathered that the last 50 years only 14 Derby winners who had ran in March did not win in that month:
Pleasant Colony, Gato del Sol, Spend a Buck, Alysheba, Strike the Gold, Go for Gin, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Funny Cide, Giacomo, Mine that Bird, Super Saver and Country House.
There were Derby victors who ran three times in March (i.e. Canonero II and Swale).
Sea Hero, I’ll Have Another and Nyquist did not run in March but the Florida Derby won by the son of Indian Charlie was run on April 2 … and Barbaro won it on April 1st . So, we can include those two Florida Derby winners as March winners by approximation I guess…
Thanks, Nelson. I think your findings show that it’s better to win in March than to not win in March. :)) And it doesn’t hurt to win in April!
But let’s not consider Country House as a Derby winner for these purposes. Deal?
Can I be sued for that?
I think they did enough lawsuits that year. Over and done with. Hope that never happens again.
Ferdinand lost SA Derby by 6 lengths, won Ky Derby by 2 1/2…..Real Quiet got beat, nearly won Triple Crown…they are PREPS—for the big race!
Although I am sceptical about Essential Quality being as good as currently projected, the Blue Grass field is so weak he’d have to fall on his nose out of the gate to lose this one.
Jerry, there are some good runners in the BG. Obviously, EQ is the likely winner. But the best horse in a race doesn’t always run his best race, as this month’s results indicate. Besides, it’s no fun to assume the likely winner will win. 🙂
Wow ! Steve …This is your best writing ever about ranking Derby Horses. It must be the feeling of Known Agenda proving you right that inspired this grand and eloquent analysis.
Now I understand your reply to the most egotistical character around telling him to “read this column to learn something”….! You knew something special was being carved in your keyboard…
By reading this in-depth article we can certainly learn a lot about attention to racing details, assessing horse talent and knowledge of Trainer’s modus operandi.
Known Agenda has stepped up and many people are noticing him now, but El Señor Steve Haskin is way above anyone else when it comes to identifying gifted young horses.
Yes … for any follower of Analytics it may be foreseeable that Todd Pletcher takes a horse to the Derby and that Known Agenda was the most accomplished one among his cards. But after Known Agenda’s blunder at Tampa many gullible people just wrote off the son of Curlin from the Trail… not Steve!
Sainthood is also in the Derby for Pletcher and Dynamic One (also by Curlin) will be attempting the same this Saturday in the Wood Memorial.
Also Stats suggest that Pletcher is way better in taking a horse to the Derby starting gate than actually winning the Roses.
Stats don’t lie and Steve got the EYE !
Hey Nelson you’re giving me a swelled head Lol. Seriously thank you very much. I really appreciate that. People give up on horses way too quickly now, just like they gave up on Greatest Honour after one defeat. Im really tempted now to put him back up there and go with an exacta from last last year’s maiden race. I expect him to return to his old self…if he gets a decent ride. Thanks again for the kind words.
Analytics? I avoid any method that begins with those four letters.
And don’t call me GULLIBLE!
LOL …You have to decide between being gullible or an Analytical guy !
… but from your Stats you really got very good Analytical skills… ♞
I’m under no obligation to make that choice. 😉
Correction: *Dynamic One is by Union Rags… I was thinking about Overtook… but this Curlin colt has not worked in more than three weeks…
You say what you did…….but don’t seem to understand how often i am right……….from winners, to bad sign horses……LIG was a cinch…..to most…..i didnt even like him at all……i said “if he even makes the derby”……you guys talk trash to someone that is right.?
Winners?
One word and you had me cracking up Steve. Hilarious. Spilled some coffee though. I’ll send you the cleaning bill.
Its worth it, Lol
VET I LOVE when you post about bad signs, and I make bank on that, you ARE right a LOT…I do wish you would list more horses that you LIKE—I was looking at archives, and in 2012 you posted six or seven horses you liked that day–THAT’S what I want, don’t worry about being wrong, Horse Racing is a sport where if you hit 33% of the time you are golden, I like Steve cuz he posts horses that he likes, he GOES FOR IT—so….let’er rip!
Steve, Who are the fastest three year olds so far this year? I am guessing Essential Quality is one of them.
If you mean on Thoro-Graph, yes it is Essential Quality. Hes the only horse to run a negative number.
Horse racing is so confusing. The more things appear to become clearer the more convoluted it gets.
I have decided to put up numbers 1 through 20 on a dart board. I will throw 4 darts. Whatever numbers I hit I will bet those 4 in the exotics. Heck, it could work, its possible.
Great analysis Steve, but I am still clueless who I think is going to win.
I’m really enjoying March Madness, these games are fun. 🙂
Youre not the only one Deacon. Save a few of those darts for me.
My Beavers just lost, but they won three games and covered the point spreads in all four games. ..in 17 years I lived in Corvallis they never even won ONE NCAA tournament game, they gave me many thrills this year!
Leave it to Beavers. I could have made some money if Oregon had college BB betting. I would have bet their first three games, wasn’t sure about the last one, but that is good they beat the spread. Glad you had fun.
Hey Matthew, glad you got a good run in the tourney with the Beavers. March Madness is always a highlight of the season for me as I try to shuffle BB with the Derby preps. At least you got to root for your Beavers, while we in Big Blue nation are still in shock over the collapse of the Kentucky Wildcats. I still can’t believe we ended up at 9-16 with all those blue ribbon recruits. As we say in racing, “toss this one out and move on to the next”.
I’m with you 100% as a fan of Prevalence. This horse is so cool in his demeanor and intelligence. He had a sharp workout on Sunday and now it’s on to the Wood to be tested for class. Really looking forward to Prevalence “bringing down the house” on Broadway.
I hope Prevalence does well, it’s a deep track, and he’s fairly small–but he has a quick turn of foot—they’re rushing him!
Deacon, if we weren’t so involved in the whole process of identifying Derby talent and following all of the prospects through the long Derby trail, we’d probably have a more rational outlook. If only we were disciplined enough to wait until Derby week to handicap. But, alas, we’d miss the fun of Steve’s columns and the online discussions.
As Shug is a great horseman who is very patient, it is possible that Jose Ortiz will continue riding Greatest Honour. I hope that Jose learns from his mistakes from his ride in the Florida Derby. The horse should have never been ridden inside a group of horses who could block him from riding outside the pack. And I think your analysis was brilliant; GH did not have his usual Turn Of Foot as he was a tired horse.
I was very pleased for all of the connections of Known Agenda including the owners, the breeders, and his sire, Curlin. I was seated beneath a group of friends and family of Vinnie Vignola, who owns Known Agenda and who owned Always Dreaming.
What was really pleasing was that this was The Curlin Florida Derby sponsored by Hill and Dale Farm. How appropriate was it that Curlin’s son won The Florida Derby sponsored by his father’s farm. Way to go Barbara Banke and Hill and Dale. What better example of the existence of Horse Racing Gods?
Lovely post. It’s too late to switch jockeys now for Greatest Honour, unless the jockey himself gets an offer he can’t refuse. It’s a pity you can’t have John Velasquez on every horse. Tacitus also had bad rides by Jose Ortiz which cost the connections a Grade 1. Hopefully, Greatest Honour won’t end up with the same fate.
Beautifully stated post, Terri. I especially like the fact Known Agenda is a homebred, from a close knit family stable, won the Curlin Florida Derby. Heck, being a huge Curlin fan, I was pleased that they tacked his name onto the Florida Derby (a major prep for the roses) and that Saratoga has a Curlin Stakes as well. I’m really high on this colt, so Steve’s fervent endorsement is music to my ears. Hope he runs, again, like dear old dad.
I (and I am sure many others) have had that same thought about Johnny V. Also these days I am a particularly liking Flavien Prat and Ken Carmouche.
Was not happy at all with the ride Greatest Honour received. Hope that hasn’t harmed him going forward. That being said, Known Agenda ran a solid race, so happy to see him #1 for the week. Dare I say I have a menu planned with an early mint julep for the weekend’s big three races? Can’t wait to see the fireworks.
I watched the Florida Derby again, and while Greatest Honour’s loss was a bit disappointing, it wasn’t the end of the world. I like Greatest Honour and Medina Spirit best because they’ve had the most “traditional” pre-Derby campaigns, the kind of which I remember as a kid from the mid-90s to early 2000s. Nowadays it’s hard to get a feel for most of these colts because they only run twice with 6 to 12 weeks between races.
AMEN!!
Hi Steve,
Thanks for your insights about Midnight Bourbon, one of my favorite contenders. It does seem that he’s inherited his sire’s running style. I hope his connections listen to you regarding his positioning in the race! I seem to recall that Gary Stevens took note when you said Mucho Macho Man needed to be in the lead at the eighth pole to win, and that paid off big time in the 2013 BC Classic.
On another note, I’m excited that Soup and Sandwich did so well Saturday.
You are right about Gary. He eveen thanked me after the post race press conference and said he was thinking about me nearing the head of the stretch that he had to get the lead before the eighth pole. That was a thrilling moment.
That is so cool. You deserved at least 10% of his winnings.
Steve didn’t get 10% of the purse money but he did get a nice dinner at Saratoga.
Yes, Dean, and having dinner with you and Patti was equally as thrilling as Gary’s words.
What did you eat?
Excellent!
Jeez, I wish there was something going on Saturday afternoon to relieve the boredom.
There;s always the Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland Saturday.
LOL. Thanks!
You guys crack me up!
Yep, boredom just might set in on Saturday……..just after the Final Four, baseball and……oh yeah, the three derby preps!
Will Crowded Trade be racing in the Wood on Saturday?
Yep.
Rock Your World was bred by Ron MacAnally, I think….
You believe correctly
It was a team effort, Ron McAnally and Deborah McAnally
Hey Steve/ anybody….ever been a light gray favored in the Derby?…..Was Native Dancer light gray? Bid wasn’t….Gato Del Sol was light gray but he was far from favored….was Marfa favored? Free House was 10-1 I think….who am I missing?
Oh, sheesh! Holy Bull.
Winning Colors was nearly the favorite. She and the undefeated Private Terms were both $3.40-1.
HEY Steve
You wern’t off the mark on VINO ROSSO Maybe a yr late but a BC CLASSIC WIN IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS. LOL
Was pleasantly surprised how Soup and Sandwich stayed around till the end. Helped my exacta. As for Known Agenda, what a giant stride. My ‘Notes from months ago say he doesn’t like wet. He’s my top pick if it’s dry and fast..
Why do your notes say S&S doesn’t like a wet track? He hasn’t run on an off track, and his pedigree suggests he shouldn’t have a problem with it.
Never mind. You meant Known Agenda. But he didn’t run bad in the slop.
Medina Spirit at #5?
I guess my issue with him is that I feel as if he has flattened out at 1 1/16 miles in his last 2 races. Sure he won one by a head and was blown away by LIG next out still holding on to 2nd place. I can’t see him winning the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles against 8 or 9 others? He’s a typical BB trainee, he gets out in front and plays the “catch me if you can” game. But, in MS case, he’s going to get caught, especially at 1 1/4 miles KD.
I take it you didnt read my comments on him. Its all in the first sentence.
Steve, if we knew Rebel’s Romance was going to the Derby Where would you of put him. I hope the Sheik sends them all if they deserve it. How many times has Baffert, Lukas and Pletcher have had multiple runners. It’s just unfortunate if it has to be an coupled entry.
right now I probably would put him around #6 or 7.
Hi Steve
I never miss reading your Derby Rankings, Week 11 is your best ever, IMO. It came as no surprise that Known Agenda has taken over the #1 spot, he checks a lot of boxes. I’m an old school guy that continues to look at Dosage Profiles, and checks for horses that might carry the large-heart gene. Known Agenda’s DP = 4-5-6-4-1, has a 4 in the Solid Category (13-15 furlongs) and a 1 in the Professional Category (16 furlongs +). To say Known Agenda is bred to go long would certainly be an accurate statement. On Known Agenda dam side, he follows the zig-zag pattern back to Buckpasser, Busanda and War Admiral. This is an indication the he “could” be a carrier of the X-Factor large-heart gene, (stamina influence). In addition, he is a St. Elias Stable homebred. 10 out of the last 17 winners of the Kentucky Derby have been homebred. Like you, I was disappointed Known Agenda didn’t show up in Futures Pool #5, but he’s the field at 5-1.
Over the best few weeks I posted comments on Rock Your World, indicating I liked him from day one with his impressive maiden win on grass, going 6 furlongs in 1:08.47 and how impressive he looked in the Pasadena Stakes going a mile in 1:34.39. I laid down a C-Note, on RYW, to win the KD, at 31-1 (closing odds in Pool 5). In addition, I boxed him with ALL in the Exacta. A total investment of $188.00, which needless to say, I hoping he runs big in the Santa Anita Derby. 🙂
Great stuff, Bill. Thank you. I dont follow the DI anymore because its not kept up, but the dosage profile is a diferent story because it still reflects who is in his pedigree. That doesnt change. It is extremely rare to see a horse with points in all 4 categories. I cant wait to see how Rock Your World runs on th dirt.
Thanks for the reply Steve. Like you, I can’t wait to see how RYW runs over the SA dirt surface.
How many homebreds are there in Steve’s sweet 16?
1-4, 8, 11, 14
Hey DES
Actually, there’re quite a few, 9 out of Steve’s 16 are homebred. I noticed EddieF missed Roman Centurian and Soup and Sandwich.
In addition, he mentioned #8 (Midnight Bourbon is homebred, which he is not).
Oops, I mistakenly inverted 8 and 9. I meant to list S&S. Sorry! Roman Centurian…the PPs show a $550k purchase price. I don’t know what that’s about as the breeder shows as one owner but Qatar Racing shows as co-owner.
Exactly, the move in the Holy Bull was from less than 5 lengths off the pace and that half was right around 47. These last 2 races he was wide on the turn and Ortiz was intent on getting him to the rail for whatever reason.
Millie Ball, who is close to the Bob b team, said Bob was giddy after Medina’s work yesterday—count me as one who thought his Lewis run was tons better than Charlie or Roman’s race, because the other two pace pressers finished 20 lengths up the track….
forget Millie. Bob was giddy on the phone with me yesterday. lol. Not to sound arrogant but no one is closer to Bob than I am. I wrote his autobiography with him and we’ve been close for 25 years. He tells me stuff I cant print lol, but I know when he’s excited about a horse. But Concert Tour is the horse he really loves.
Hey that’s good to know!
Agree, that’s really good to know…..I’ll remember this info next year when it comes to Steve’s comments about BB’s horses! 🙂 Thanks Steve!
Steve, has BB ever won the Derby with the horse he didn’t love the most? Real Quiet maybe?
He’s only won two when he had another horse in the race. He knew Indian Charlie was his best horse, but he also knew that no one was working better than Real Quiet and certainly gave him a good chance. He was pretty close between Pharoah and Dortmund, but behind the scenes, Pharoah was his No. 1.
Justify and the big longshot Solomini. But I have a sneaking suspicion Baffert preferred Justify. 🙂 🙂
I’m no works expert but why was Prevalence working with a horse who could not even run with him for one stride, when he switched gears….he’s got a small head with funnels for nostrils, and when he goes, it’s NOW! On to Aqueduct, and that strangely slow surface, we’ll see….I really like him!
I think he just wanted to have a horse who could put a little pressure on him from behind. That work makes me think hes going to the lead. Lets see what post he draws. He’s not a robust horse so you want to give him as easy a time of it as you can.
I was on him from the start, because he had one of those progressively better work patterns, two 3 fur…two 4 fur….two 5 fur….each better …..the good ones can do that, and I loved how he was stuck inside of speed yet kept his stride, most debut runners lose their concentration when they have outside pressure, they open up EARLY—-Prevalence kept his stride and when it was time it was GOODBYE!
2 Things on GREATEST HONOUR 1 I think he has immense talent but a stone cold closer needs to have everything go right and in the derby with 20 horses its a difficult task. 2 I am a fan of adding blinkers at the right time but not the first time being the KY DERBY and that is what SHUG is going to do. ( see what it did for PALICE MALICE 1ST time in The Derby) Thats why he is a pass for me.
He was never a stone cold closer until the last two races. I think Shug has to start sharpening him up in the morning. He might even work him in blinkers as long as he doesnt put thm on in the Derby. He also could use a decent ride.
Exactly, the move in the Holy Bull was from less than 5 lengths off the pace and that half was right around 47. These last 2 races he was wide on the turn and Ortiz was intent on getting him to the rail for whatever reason.
Thanks again Steve for an incredible analysis as always. Was disappointed in Greatest Honour but I agree wasn’t very happy with Jose Ortiz’s ride, not blaming the horse at all. Definitely thought he could’ve done much better. Do agree that was a phenomenal race for Known Agenda. Can’t for to see what unfolds.
Thank you, Teri.
So. . . . . Proxy is totally out of your picture?
No one is totally out of my picture. I am texting his trainer to try to get his take on why this horse cant keep a straight course. The true Derby Rankings wont be until next week when we have a clearer picture. With 3 big stakes this weekend there were other horses who deserved to be on the list. That likely will change next week. He will be prominently mentioned
Maybe Proxy has a drinking problem.
Steve, Proxy ran pretty straight in the Louisiana Derby. John Velasquez traced Mandaloun throughout until they passed. Proxy had no punch and basically flattened out. Proxy has been racing every month since October, 2020. A kin to Greatest Honour, needs some sharpening up.
Maybe I have had too much coffee but this coming Saturday seems to be more exciting than most Wood/Blue Grass/SA Derby days. Happy Birthday.
We must be drinking the same coffee. lol
Steve.
Also KNOWN AGENDA is the only 3 yrold to have won 3 races at a mile and 1/8 . No other colt has even won 2 at that distance. Confidence , foundation, tactical. bloodlines and 5 weeks before the DERBY with no regression.
Regression can happen in 5 weeks and others step up their game in those 5 weeks. A lot can happen in 5 weeks. What’s pletcher record at the KD?
REGRESSION isnt going to happen because he didnt have to bust a gut to win the Florida DERBY. HE ALSO HAS WON 3 MILE AND 1/8 RACES , SO HIS FOUNDATION IS THE DEEPEST OF ANY COLT OUT THERE
Pletcher is a big time trainer but I’m not a fan of his results in the race. At least 29 or more of his entries have finished 9th or worse. So I’m not trusting KA at all, and eliminating…
Risk Taking has won his last 2 at mile and 1/8th
Loved Known Agenda’s race. Not familiar with damsire Byron so I looked him up and can’t find much of anything other than he looked beautifully bred but from the 3 past performances they showed he couldn’t run woth a damn. No progeny records. What am I missing that justified Godolphins’ faith in him as a sire/broodmare sire? Steve, any chance going forward you can give us a bit of background on foreign runners in the Derby horses pedigrees? Might be that little extra to look for in horses when they are so evenly matched. Thanks.
Not sure what you mean by he couldnt run worth a dam or what you were looking at. He won or placed in graded stakes at 2, 3, 4, and 5, and placed in the English 2,000 Guineas. And he has sired a grade 1 winner for the owner of Known Agenda. I gave a detailed report on KA’s European connections in Week 1 and will expand on that next week as I mentioned in his comment today.
KA has just about the best breeding cross there is with Mr Prospector together with copious amounts of Norther Dancer blood on both sides for that turn of foot.
Steve.
Also KNOWN AGENDA is the only 3 yrold to have won 3 races at a mile and 1/8 . No other colt has even won 2 at that distance. TALK ABOUT FOUNDATION
There ya go. with his pedigree I dont believe hes going to get dulled by it, just strengthen him.
Steve, you said it right when you said the Derby picture is more confusing than ever. And yet you come up with another thoughtful, crystal clear-eyed column that was so much fun to read! I have the Nos. 1 and 2 reversed, and I loyally kept Greatest Honour at No. 3, thanks to your persuasive writing all season.
Thank you, Mary Ellen. I’m sure you are more sane than I am having Essential Quality on top as the rest of the world does. But at least for this week Im going to stick with my horse and see what happens in the Blue Grass. Nothing looks worse than putting up a horse to No. 1 who everyone else had and then having to lower him the next week.
It should go without saying, but the Rankings column is the best in the business. I have two questions (for now). 🙂
“Desperate attempt” is so true, but Brooklyn Strong is a fascinating possibility. It seems insane to expect him to be a Derby horse after a 3yo debut in the Wood Memorial. I would be highly skeptical even if he was trained by an experienced conditioner of top-class horses. However, Daniel Velazquez isn’t in that category. Brooklyn Strong is the only graded stakes winner of his career.
But what a graded stakes it was: the 9f Remsen Stakes in December. Brooklyn Strong’s Brisnet speed rating and pace figures were all in triple digits, with the speed figure being 107!! And the third-place finisher in that race? Known Agenda. Could a huge “New York, New York” exacta stun the racing world with Brooklyn Strong and Nicky the Vest in the Wood?
Second topic is the 10 years of last-out winners crossing the Derby finish line first, with most of them coming off multiple consecutive wins. Steve wrote that “the recent Derby winners that have won their previous start were lightly raced and had little wear and tear.” It’s an accurate statement for most of them, but three had as many or more career starts as Greatest Honour: Orb (7 starts, 4 consecutive wins), California Chrome (10 starts, 4 consecutive wins), and Nyquist (7 starts, undefeated).
It may be impossible to explain the last-race trend, but could it have something to do with how the race schedules of Derby hopefuls have been stretched out? These days it’s considered a quick turnaround if a horse has 4 weeks between races. Two months between races isn’t uncommon. Perhaps that’s what Steve referred to when he said that recent winners “had little wear and tear.”
Uh oh. Nicky the Vest is out of Wood consideration. Jonathan Thomas said his gallop out after the last work was “subpar.” 🙁
Eddie, there are always exceptions to every rule. I thought of Orb, but not counting him because that Derby was run in the slop and a suicidal pace enabled all the deep closers to come flying late to fill in all the spots. That Derby was an anomaly as proven when Orb came back and did nothing in the Preakness. So I dont factor in that race. You may not agree but Chrome’s Derby field was very weak and he didnt exactly overpower that field. There were no good lightly raced horses in that field. And Chrome is a Hall of Famer Yes, he had 10 starts but many o them were Cal-brd race when he was still learning and didnt do much running. As for Nyquist, who was a champion, other than Exaggerator, who was in that field? Yes he had 7 starts, but only a 7f and 9f race that year, so he was pretty fresh. . Again, no rule or theory applies every year because every year is different. I think the trend holds up in general,
All excellent points, Steve. That’s why I’m in the Comment Section and you’re above it. LOL. But don’t you think that Revolutionary, Goldencents, and Verrazano were quality runners heading into the 2013 Derby? And what about Gun Runner (in addition to Exxagerator) going into the 2016 Derby? Yes, Chrome caught a below-par field, though Wicked Strong seemed to be peaking at the right time but had a horrendous trip breaking from the outside post. (I remember it well because I bet on him.)
You cant judge a Derby field by the horses going in. It’s who they become that is who they really are. Goldencents and Verrazano were not 10f horses, as we saw with Goldencents. Revolutionary was still an unknown talent and didnt do too much after the Derby. Gun Runner was just a so so horse going in the Derby but certainly got better with age. wicked Strong was a pretty good horse but you need more than that to make a good Derby field
Right, but I can’t judge a current field right now by who they become in the Derby and beyond.
Beware the Roman Centurion. His Robert Lewis effort was as good if not better than both Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie
I said the same thing affter the race.
Hello Steve, You were spot on with acknowledging Known Agenda’s talent and he showed it it the FLA Derby. Here’s my top 5. #1 Essential Quality. #2 Known Agenda. #3 Weyburn. #4 Greatest Honour. #5 Concert Tour. IMO we will see a breakout performance from Weyburn in the Wood Memorial on Saturday. He has a good pedigree and I like his tactical speed. Like you said Steve, Weyburn should move forward going two turns. I am glad to have bet Weyburn at 35-1 in KDFW5. I bet him to win and boxed him with EQ,GH,Concert Tour, and the Field. The field finished at 5-1 and includes Known Agenda. It looks like Roman Centurian will get pace to run at in the SA Derby and I hope he comes running and can at least get up for 2nd to punch his ticket to Louisville. I bet RC in KDFW4 at 41-1 and not giving up just yet. I also have Proxy from KDFW3 at 41-1 and hope the 6 week break will benefit him with some sharp workouts leading up to the Derby. Proxy like Weyburn has tactical speed which can be a real asset in the 20 horse stampede of the KY Derby.
Good stuff, Joe, and excellent bet and price on Weyburn. I would love to see him win for Jimmy. He doent have to win the Wood to move forward and peak on Derby Day. I have loved Proxy all yar and thought the blinkers would really help him, but he again was drifting out badly in the La. Derby. If this horse could only keep a straight coure and remain focused he would improve 5 lengths. I am going to touch base with Mike Stidham this week and see if I can get any revelations.
Thanks Steve for another great analysis. I agree with your comments on Irad Ortiz. He hits horses far too much with the whip in my opinion- and very hard with a slashing motion that must hurt. He often whips them even when the horse is many lengths in front. I know he wins alot of races and many trainers and gamblers praise him for this, but I think there needs to be better national whip rules and despite all of the publicity on this from Santa Anita I don’t see much change.
Thanks Ruthie. I thought that was totally uncalled for
A Pletcher horse in the Derby? Pass. Appleby indicated he may want to pass on Rebel’s Romance going to KY, but it’s not his decision. Interesting storyline: How many Godolphin competitors to Essential Quality would Sheikh Mo want to send to risk his biggest chance? And Panadol representing the late Sheikh Hamdan would be a sentimental fave.
Holy Cow !!!!! Didn’t expect Essential Quality to not be number one but thrilled to see O Besos get a number. This is a great list and comments, my favorite of the year so far. This is an exciting year with underrated talent about to explode. Expecting big changes the next few weeks. Steve- no mention of Caddo River- do you think he has a chance?
Sometimes you jut cant follow the crowd. Ive been on this horse from day one and might as well stick with him at least for this week and give him at least one No. 1 ranking
As always, your analyzes have the precision that combines brain and heart. It is a delight to read you.
Thank you Angel, thats very kind of you
Finally gave up hope on Olympiad making the Derby, who I bet on in the Future Wager 2, hopped on Rock Your World yesterday in Future Wager 5 at 31/1. Should be an interesting Santa Anita Derby !
If he should the SA Derby that will be the bet of the year,
🙂