Derby Rankings: Week 12
With only one more weekend of preps left we’re stretching the Rankings out to 20 this week. Everything could look very different next week with the No. 2, 3, 4, and 5 horses running on Saturday. After that it’s up to everyone to make some sense of it all. We’re either going to have a strong Top 6 or 7 or the confusion will continue and it will be one big crap shoot. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 4, 2022 – Week 12
By Steve Haskin
1– Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
When Ron Winchell buys yearlings at the Keeneland September sale, he rarely has any interest in horses who sell in the final books and is usually long gone when the hip numbers reach into the thousands. His program is more about the elite yearlings who sell in the first few books. But in the 2020 sale he made an exception and waited for Hip #1956 to come into the ring. He was that far down mainly because he was by a relatively little-known second-crop sire named Not This Time. “That’s petty late in the sale for our purchases,” Winchell said. “However, he was an absolute standout from our perspective, especially for that late in the sale.” Even with him selling that late Winchell still had to pay $260,000 for him. Ron Anderson, agent for Joel Rosario, remembers when Steve Asmussen asked him to ride this colt after a poor debut, telling him he wasn’t ready for that race. “I know Steve and Scotty (assistant Scott Blasi) and I’m able to get their opinions independently. Both had been crazy about this horse for weeks. My main question was can you take a hold of this horse and have him follow a horse? Scotty said, ‘absolutely.’” It took five races, but Epicenter finally proved him right in the Louisiana Derby after four races on the lead and now all the boxes have been checked. He is now a bona fide Kentucky Derby horse and the current favorite for the Run for the Roses, especially with the results of this past weekend.
2– Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
The time of reckoning has come. After being ranked No. 1 for the first 10 weeks based on his two victories last year and one solid 3-year-old debut in which he was a non-threatening second It is finally time to find out just where he fits in the Derby picture and if he is a good as I and all those who made him the Future Wager favorite every month believe he is. His second meeting with Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes should be very interesting because both horses have the same questions to answer and a victory by either one would put them right up there with Epicenter and perhaps replace him as No. 1. But it would have to be an impressive one. For Smile Happy it would be returning to where he’s been all year despite his lack of racing. The key to this colt is whether he shows that same powerful closing kick that he needs to start using on the far turn unlike the Risen Star when he was not asked to run at all on the turn and arrived to the party way too late and was lucky to get second. It’s been all speculation so far and it was not McPeek’s intention to give him so much time off, but he obviously needed it and was ridden conservatively in the Risen Star. But conservative is the last thing he needs now. He needs to be put to pressure and given an opportunity to show that spark from last year. In short he needs to be toughened to be ready for the Derby.
3– Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
The biggest challenge all year has been for me trying to say something about him and Smile Happy that is somewhat new, but that is what happens when you rank two horses this high with each having only one start in 4 ½ months. If they both get beat in the Blue Grass that will make them 0-for-2 this year and likely would drop them down in the Rankings unless one of them runs huge in defeat. As I’ve been saying, their high rankings have been based on their 2-year-old races and the promise they showed in the Risen Star Stakes. While Smile Happy will be trying to move forward on Thoro-Graph following a basic pairing (2 and 2 ½), after jumping from a 7 ¼, Zandon will be looking to do the same following a very steady progression (6 ½ to 4 ½ to 2 ¼), so both are coming off an almost identical number, but got there in an different manner. They will have to face another lightly raced colt in Emmanuel, who should improve big-time off his troubled tip in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Other than him, they should be able to handle the likes of Ethereal Road, Blackadder, and Volcanic if they are to be considered major Derby contenders. As I’ve been saying, this colt intrigues me the most because we still have no idea how high his ceiling is. Once he puts it all together and gets a good trip and a little luck, we could see something special.
4– Messier (Tim Yakteen, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
It could be that the best thing to happen to this year’s Derby is having this horse finally cleared to run in it. If he looks as good in the Santa Anita Derby as he did in the Robert Lewis Stakes, and Smile Happy, Zandon, and Morello, and possibly Emmanuel, do not live up to expectations on Saturday, then we can at least look forward to a showdown between Messier and Epicenter in the Kentucky Derby because that is where the brilliance will end in a crop that that so far has proven to be on the slow side and not that exciting. Messier still has the fastest Thoro-Graph number by a 3-year-old this year, running a “1” in the Lewis, and if you throw out his only two defeats at quirky Los Alamitos then he certainly looks to have star potential. And if you like juicy stories wouldn’t that be a kick in the pants if he were to win the Kentucky Derby in the aftermath of the Churchill – Baffert wars that had prevented this colt from earning any Derby points until he was turned over to a different general. Take nothing away from Tim Yakteen, but the overwhelming presence of Baffert will always be with this horse. All he has to do is take care of business against the speedball Forbidden Kingdom on Saturday and you have your Derby storyline and maybe the favorite. And after this past Saturday’s Florida and Arkansas Derbys, believe me, the Derby needs a horse with his brilliance.
5– Morello (Steve Asmussen, Classic Empire – Stop the Wedding, by Congrats)
As you can see I’m looking ahead rather than behind, hoping to find a solid nucleus of Derby contenders from the group still to race. I mentioned that Messier has the fastest Thoro-Graph so far; well this colt has the second fastest. Both are the only ones to run a number below “2.” Normally by now you’ll find some that have run a negative number or something close to a zero. So the Thoro-Graph numbers are holding up in judging how fast, or more appropriately how slow, these horses are as a whole. With Morello it is all about dealing with two turns for the first time in the Wood Memorial and handling horses like Mo Donegal and Early Voting, who both have won 1 1/8-mile stakes. Morello has the pedigree to handle longer distances and he has been extremely professional and machine-like in his races. He is one of the few horses this year in whom I have been unable to find a single flaw. If that holds up in the Wood and he can defeat horses of this caliber and do it impressively then you can add him to the list of serious Derby contenders who have checked off all the boxes. It would also give him a shot at the No. 1 spot being undefeated. He would also give Asmussen a powerful one-two punch, although a great deal of Morello’s success can be attributed to Asmussen’s longtime New York assistant Toby Sheets, who is pretty much allowed to train these horses on his own.
6– White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
You have to give this colt credit for being consistent and tractable and always in the right spot, and also for working his way up from a $7,500 yearling purchase and making a name for himself (see last week for his story). He certainly is one of the most appealing stories in this year’s Derby, and with his gray color will be popular with the fans. But looking at the Florida Derby from a logical and statistical standpoint it’s difficult to get past that final three-eighths in almost :40 seconds and final eighth in :14. Those are pedestrian fractions. But is this another timing screwup by Gulfstream? I never trust their times. I’ll have to wait and see if that was legit. Sounds way too slow to be true. This was not a deep field and apparently not a strong one, so I’m not sure what to make of it. One thing White Abarrio has going for him is that it is looking more and more like this could be average or below average crop, which is reflected by the somewhat slow Thoro-Graph numbers all year. But I don’t like judging crops too early and am mentioning all this just to try to make some sense of the Rankings. White Abarrio had a perfect stalking trip, with Charge It inside him and Simplification battling on the lead between horses and then having to put Pappacap away after they went at each other around the turn. But White Abarrio took advantage of it all and got the job done, and will go into the Kentucky Derby with an excellent record. How good he really is we’ll find out then.
7– Cyberknife (Brad Cox, Gun Runner – Awesome Flower, by Flower Alley)
I don’t know how many times I have pleaded ignorance in this week’s Rankings, but I have no clue what to make of this colt or how good he really is. He is a high energy horse who can be tough to handle, as witnessed when he dumped his rider in the Arkansas Derby post parade, which is not a quality you want on Kentucky Derby Day. Yes, he won the Arkansas Derby by 2 ¾ lengths, but that is all I know about him. Before this race he looked like just a horse who had room for improvement, and he beat the Derby trail’s favorite bridesmaid Barber Road, who now has four seconds and a third in his last five starts. The horse who beat Barber Road in the Rebel Stakes, Un Ojo, was 19-1 in the Arkansas Derby and finished eighth, beaten over 14 lengths, after cutting himself up badly on the starting gate. The one local horse everyone down there jumped all over was the undefeated (in only two starts) We the People, who was sent off at 2-1 and finished seventh. And then there was the favorite Sacred Oath who was farther back than she’s ever been, put in an explosive move on the turn, but was unable to sustain it, finishing third. So how good is the winner, who was in perfect position in fourth and in the clear down the backstretch before moving in and splitting horses, just barely getting through a rapidly closing hole? I hate to say it again, but I don’t know. With a final three-eighths in :39, he didn’t exactly come home fast, yet there was no one to catch him. He had one stakes appearance before this, finishing a well-beaten sixth in the Lecomte Stakes. Yes he is improving, but it’s starting to look as if you can lump most of these horses together.
8– Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
If you liked him before, double down now at a better price. I am going to overlook his defeat in the Florida Derby because he did all the dirty work due to strategy that backfired and was the only one I can forgive for coming home so slowly. To me, the winner and runner-up were able to take advantage of his gut-wrenching trip. But the more this horse runs the less I know about him. Just when I thought he had transformed himself into a closer he winds up battling on the lead early with Classic Causeway, who eventually tired badly and finished last. But that was Sano’s strategy. Then he found himself in between horses in a three-way battle for the lead through a strong six furlongs in 1:10 4/5 and a strong third quarter in :23 2/5 when Pappacap came charging up on his outside. That’s the last place you want to be, caught in the middle of three-horse duel. Classic Causeway then called it a day and Simplification wound up in a head and head battle with Pappacap around the far turn before putting him away. He did change leads this time, which I was happy to see, but all his earlier efforts took their toll in the stretch and he couldn’t hold off White Abarrio and then lost second to Charge It, who had been in a drive from the thee-eighths pole. So is this a Derby contender or not? Is he a front runner or a closer? After the Florida Derby I still respect him and have to consider him a serious Derby horse because I don’t have a clue what to expect from him one race to the next as to where he’s going to be running. Remember, in his last six races he’s won every other race and is now due for a win. If he can find a comfortable position in the Derby, whether it’s close to the pace or farther back, then he might surprise a lot of people, and he is my overlay pick right now.
9– Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
He tuned up for the Blue Grass Stakes with a five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 and should be coming up to the race in near peak form. Although he improved his Thoro-Graph numbers from an “8 ¼” to a “4 ¼” in his troubled trip in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, he still has a good deal of improving still to do on that front. I still have no idea what to make of the 3-year-olds in Florida, as they don’t appear to be overly fast based on the Thoro-Graph numbers. But I can see him taking another big step forward at Keeneand and possibly putting himself in position to hit that peak at Churchill Downs. And I also want to see what he can do with a clean trip, something he failed to get in the Fountain of Youth, which I believe attributed to his getting tired in the stretch. When I saw him get sawed off after the start, drop back and go wide into the first turn I figured he was done, coming off two easy front-running scores. But when he kept moving up down the backstretch five or six-wide and actually pulled even with the leaders turning for home I was very impressed. The fact he was unable to sustain that long run didn’t bother me one bit. These races coming up this weekend are going to make or break a lot of horses and will determine who the true contenders are. Smile Happy and Zandon still have some questions to answer themselves, so hopefully those questions, as well as the questions about Emmanuel will be answered.
10– Charge It (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – I’ll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie)
Another lightly raced Pletcher colt on the upswing. A lot of people are going to jump on his bandwagon after finishing second in the Florida Derby coming off a maiden victory and only two lifetime starts. He obviously is a very talented horse and his maiden score was an eye-catcher, but once again I still don’t know what to make of him as a potential Kentucky Derby winner. The only two horses to win the Derby off three lifetime starts have been Big Brown and Justify, both of whom were freaky good who came along in subpar crops. So I am still reluctant to pick a horse to win the Derby off so few starts. As for his Florida Derby I really don’t know if he finished second because he’s that good or he just took advantage of the plodding closing fractions, and perhaps these horses are nothing special. It looked as if he got up for second because Simplification as mentioned earlier did all the dirty work. Charge It was under heavy pressure around the turn and wasn’t accelerating, but like many Pletcher horses do he just kept coming after swinging wide and put himself back in the race. However, he looked as if he was also tiring and was all over the track, lugging out a little and then lugging in badly on several occasions. It all depends on what he gets out of this race and if he can take a big step forward in only his fourth career start. He’s going to have to show a bit more turn of foot and not be so one-paced and race more professionally in the stretch.
11– Forbidden Kingdom (Dick Mandella, American Pharoah – Just Louise, by Five Star Day)
There is no way to tell if this horse can carry his exceptional speed nine furlongs, never mind 10 furlongs, but Mandella is sure giving him every chance to by harnessing that speed, working him long, and letting him work without company, which he did in his most recent drill, going seven furlongs in 1:26 3/5. I like that he broke off by himself with his ears pricked and did everything smoothly, with a strong gallop-out. The script for the Santa Anita Derby should be pretty simple. He is going to the lead and Messier will be right off his flank or at least no more than a length back. John Velazquez will know just where to have him. There shouldn’t be any danger from behind, so both horses can treat this like a match race, knowing if the other cracks first the race is over. To have a Bob Baffert-developed colt chasing a son of Amercan Pharoah just adds to the storyline. It’s not like Forbidden Kingdom is your typical speed horse with a ton of speed in his pedigree trying to stretch out in distance. This is a lightning-fast colt who had been running :21 and :43 fractions sprinting and who had a tendency to get very rank if you tried to hold him. But Mandella has at least gotten that out of him and his speed is much more controlled now, especially going two turns. If he wins the Santa Anita Derby it is really going to impact the pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby.
12– Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
Pletcher has him sharp for his return in the Wood Memorial after a nine-week layoff, working him five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Palm Beach Downs. He is a strange horse to figure out as he showed in the Holy Bull Stakes when he was under pressure and going nowhere on the turn but popped into the picture late closing fastest of all. In the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes it looked as if he should have put away Zandon, who had only one six-furlong race under him, but not only did he have to eke out a nose victory he should have been disqualified for coming in sharply on Zandon and squeezing him against the rail. But he is consistent and he will be in contention when they turn for home in the Wood. If he should run big and Emmanuel does the same in the Blue Grass, Pletcher will have four starters in the Kentucky Derby with Charge It and Pioneer of Medina already in the race. He also has Golden Code in the Wood. While Morello and Early Voting probably need a victory to be considered serious Derby horses, Mo Donegal only needs to be closing fast to set him up for a peak effort, but he really has to make huge improvement on his Thoro-Graph numbers, which have remained stagnant at “6,” and that won’t put him anywhere in the Derby picture.
13– Early Voting (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Amour d’ete, By Tiznow)
Like Mo Donegal he will be retuning in the Wood Memorial off a nine-week layoff. Unlike Mo Donegal he did not have a setback that anyone is aware of. Like Mo Donegal he has already won a 1 1/8-mile stakes. Unlike Mo Donegal he has only two career starts. Where have we heard that before? The Withers seems like ages ago, but I was impressed with everything I saw, especially the way he easily separated himself from the field in a flash. This horse has a very high cruising speed and can turn it on. If he had one start between the Withers and the Wood I’m sure he would be ranked much higher. Brown was thinking of passing the Derby and going straight to the Preakness off the Wood as he did successfully with Cloud Computing, but the Derby won out, so now he will have to make do with the three career starts. One thing he has going for him is pedigree, with his sire and grandsire having three Breeders’ Cup Classic victories between them.
14– Tiz the Bomb (Kenny McPeek, Hit It a Bomb – Tiz the Key, by Tiznow)
This horse has been in and out of the Derby picture so many times he needs to get his hand (or hoof) stamped. McPeek considered him a serious Derby horse early in the year even though his best races by far were on grass, but when he threw in a clunker in the Holy Bull Stakes, McPeek’s radar shifted to the English 2,000 Guineas with two preps on Turfway’s Polytack. But it doesn’t take much to get Derby fever, especially a relapse, and after Tiz the Bomb’s emphatic victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks with its 100 points it was back on the Derby trail. Now we again ask the question can this horse handle the dirt and the kickback, which he has failed to do on two occasions, including once at Churchill Downs. And yet there is that one glimmering vision of him breaking his maiden in an off the turf maiden race by 14 lengths at Ellis Park. His sire was strictly a grass horse, but the big hope for this horse is having Tiznow as his broodmare sire. So here is another guess for you. Good luck.
15– Barber Road (John Ortiz, Race Day – Encounter, by Southern Image)
If this horse can ever learn how to time his stretch run better and take just one itsy bitsy step forward he might actually win a race. Although he has managed four seconds and a third in his last five starts, all stakes, and is always closing late, he just can’t seem to get there for one reason or another. His consistency, closing punch, and, yes, his inability to find the winner’s circle are going to make him a popular horse at Churchill Downs. There is something endearing about him and how hard he tries, and people are always going to figure the next race will be the one where he breaks through. Also, he has come up through the ranks, breaking maiden at Keeneland for a $30,000 claiming tag, and then easily winning a starter allowance race at Churchill Downs before heading into stakes company. Ironically in both his victories he won from on or just off the pace. His female family is a bit obscure, but there is enough stamina top and bottom to suggest a mile and a quarter will not pose a problem. His strong finish in the Arkansas Derby was enough to rank him in the Top 15. If you’re looking for that typical longshot closer who gets up for second in the Derby, here is your boy.
16– Zozos (Brad Cox, Munnings – Papa’s Forest, by Forestry
He looks to be a brilliant horse with a bright future after his explosive maiden victory and second in the Louisiana Derby, but he is another who will go into the Kentucky Derby with only three career starts, and I still believe that is too much to ask of a horse especially one whose pedigree is questionable going a mile and a quarter. I do believe, however, he has already outrun his pedigree to some degree by running so well going 1 3/16 miles. If anything he should be a good complement to his stablemate Cyberknife. His first three generations certainly lean more toward shorter distances, but his third dam is by the distance-loving Big Spruce, a son of the great stamina influence Herbager, and his broodmare sire is out of a daughter of Pleasant Colony, so there is stamina several generations back. And remember, not only did he run well going 1 3/16 miles they flew home in that race. But again it is all about experience and seasoning and I don’t know how effective he will be going a mile and a quarter with his running style in a 20-horse field.
17– Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Pioneerof the Nile – Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya)
I like his steady progression moving up the class ladder, and after leaping from a “10 ½” Thoro-Graph number to a “3” in his fourth-place finish in the loaded Risen Star Stakes he paired up that “3” in the Louisiana Derby with a solid third-place finish. Now that we know that “3” was legitimate it is time to take another big step forward if he is to have any shot in the Kentucky Derby. At least that number has put him in striking range. All he needs to do is figure out how to win. He has been a one-paced stalker who keeps going, but he needs a closing punch to finish it off. The pedigree is there and he’s already been 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/16 miles against the No. 1 ranked horse and was right there in the Risen Star against the No. 2 and 3-ranked horses, who were No. 1 and 2 at the time. So there is a lot to recommend him. But he has to show improvement one more time.
18– Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Edwina E, by Square Eddie)
Talk about an enigmatic horse, this is him. He does so many things wrong in a race and looks ugly doing it, but he knows how to win and has proven to be one tough nut to crack when headed in the stretch. He has twice now turned back challenges, once by Messier, while seemingly goofing around. The addition of blinkers in the Sunland Derby may have helped him and hurt him at the same time. It may have helped him because he won, but it may have hurt him because he went way too fast early and he is not going to win the Kentucky Derby running the way he did in that race; certainly not if Forbidden Kingdom is in there. He has looked good in the morning, working strongly, and O’Neill certainly knows how to win the Derby, once with this colt’s sire, so we’ll see what magic he can pull out of his hat this time. One thing we know, he will keep the race interesting.
19– Ethereal Road (Wayne Lukas, Quality Road – Sustained by War Front)
He’s not Secret Oath, but he certainly belongs in the Kentucky Derby. I thought he was the best horse in the Rebel Stakes, losing a lot of ground and getting the fastest Thoro-Graph number, which he has worked down from a “9” to a “4,” so it seems he is moving in the right direction and it will be interesting to see how he does in the Blue Grass Stakes. He was re-routed to Keeneland after it was decided to run his more illustrious female stablemate in the Arkansas Derby. If he can take another step forward and get a good trip he could make his presence felt against the likes of Smile Happy, Zandon, and Emmanuel. It would be great to get the 86-year-old Lukas back to the Derby. There is nothing like stopping at his barn at Churchill Downs at 5 a.m. in the weeks before the Derby and just chatting with the coach about whatever is on his mind that day. And believe me he always has something to say.
20– Crown Pride (Koishi Shintani, Reach the Crown – Emmy’s Pride by King Kamehameha)
Yes, it is time to welcome a Japanese horse to the Rankings. After last year’s Breeders’ Cup and this year’s Dubai World Cup card there is no avoiding these horses any longer, and you can’t knock his UAE Derby victory, in which he was able to sustain a long steady run and overtake a tough opponent in Summer is Tomorrow. Even though he never changed leads down that long stretch he was running strongly at the end to pull away late. He has looked great in all his starts except in the Hyacinth Stakes in the mud. If he makes it here you can bet he will get support at the windows and in wagering accounts and will draw a large enthusiastic crowd from Japan to cheer him on. Remember, this horse is inbred to Sunday Silence and I believe he may be the real deal. But we’ll know more as the Derby gets closer.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
SECRET OATH gave us a thrill with her monster move on the turn in the Arkansas Derby, but she got tired and will now have five weeks to get ready for the Kentucky Oaks. Rebel winner UN OJO never showed a thing, but cut himself up pretty badly on the starting gate, requiring staples to close the wound. CLASSIC CAUSEWAY ran a real head-scratcher in the Florida Derby, tiring badly after setting the early pace and finishing dead last. You never know on the Derby trail. One minute he was heading to Blue Grass Stakes looking great with two big wins at Tampa and the next he winds up in the Florida Derby off only three weeks rest and it all falls apart.
Looking ahead to the weekend, VOLCANIC and stablemate GOLDEN GLIDER had easy half-mile breezes for the Blue Grass Stakes. I can see Volcanic in particular taking a big step forward and making his presence felt. I think this colt has a bright future. El Camino Real Derby winner BLACKADDER, who scratched from the Jeff Ruby Steaks after drawing the far outside post, will return to the dirt in the Blue Grass for Rudy Brissset after breezing five furlongs in 1:02 4/5 in company. Also pointing for the Blue Grass is Tampa Bay Derby runner-up GRANTHAM, who worked a half in :48 3/5, and FENWICK, who woke up with blinkers added last time out and romped by 5 ¼ lengths in a Tampa Bay maiden race.
Todd Pletcher could have a sleeper in the Wood Memorial in GOLDEN CODE, who romped by over 10 lengths in a maiden race before running a strong third in the Gotham Stakes. The son of Honor Code should appreciate the stretch-out to two turns. Remember last year’s Wood when Pletcher had Dynamic One, but won the race with longshot Bourbonic owned by Calumet Farm and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche. Golden Code also is owned by Calumet Farm and will be ridden by Kendrick Carmouche. Saffie Joseph will be represented by A.P.’s SECRET, seventh in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING, an impressive allowance winner going 1 1/8 miles last out, in the Wood, but don’t be surprised to see the undefeated New York-bred BARESE charging down the stretch at a big price following impressive stakes victories in the state-bred Rego Park and Gander Stakes. The son of Laoban packs a wallop and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him right in the thick of things.
Doug O’Neill will send HAPPY JACK, a well-beaten third in the San Felipe Stakes, and recent maiden winner WIN THE DAY, who worked six furlongs in 1:14, to the Santa Anita Derby.
IN DUE TIME had his second work back after three weeks of inactivity, breezing five furlongs in 1:01, but is not listed among the possibles or probables for any of this weekend stakes. The Lexington Stakes could get him in the Derby with a victory, but he would have to go to Churchill never having run farther than 1 1/16 miles and that is not desirable, so perhaps the Preakness is the goal.
I’ll be curious to see who the top 2 are.
Well Steve’s been a Zandon lover since day one, I would very surprised if he’s not # 1 he ran down a good horse like it was nothing……And Steve has recenrkt been talking about how the “rules” don’t apply anymore…I’ve watched that Taiba stretch run several times I’ll go out on a limb and say Steve slots Taiba before Epicenter because he ran past Messier like it was nothing,, they both beat good horses…then Mo—-
I want to see what he does, he has access to the sheets and it’s hard to predict sometimes where he’ll rank horses. I’m going to give my opinions after his rankings are up.
Looks like Beyer just adjusted Taiba’s win to 102 rating.
Shame for FK & Mandella. He’s overdue!
Mike, I agree. Hopefully it will get resolved and he will be back later in the year. Papa Mandella is close to the top of my list as trainer and a horseman.
Real shame indeed. Richard is one of the few trainers who is real patient with 3 year olds and does not have Derby fever. FK showed real talent and this is an unfortunate set back for now. He’ll get his chance.
Does Brad Cox run Tawny Port back in The Lexington off only a 2 week rest? He sits at #20, but, Bye Bye Bobby and In Due Time would both knock him out on Graded earnings with a Lexington win. He could just wait and hope that another horse wins The Lexington. Also, there will likely be a few defections from the top 20. Chad Brown sounds very much on the fence with Early Voting.
‘Desperation’ is not the best form of attack when confronting the Kentucky Derby. There are other races.
BH is reporting epiglottis issue with Forbidden Kingdom and will be explored further.
Best wishes for a full recovery and a return to the track
Hope I am not stealing Steve’s thunder, but ONE Derby winner did go into the race with only two starts. That was LEONATUS, who raced once at 2, finishing second in the aptly named Maiden Stakes. He won the Blue Ribbon Stakes at Lexington 5 days before he took the 1883 Kentucky Derby.
Can Taiba break the curse of Leonatus? LOL.
Steve Haskin has been on Zandon and Smile Happy all along. Does he move Zandon to #1 over Epicenter?. What will Mr. Haskin have to say about Smile Happy who I think was hurt by his wide trip? The biggest question might be what does he do with twice raced Taiba and Messier? What about Morello who broke so badly in The Wood? I know that I’m not the only one looking forward to Steve’s new rankings.
So have I regarding Zandon………. from beginning.
Most curious to see how far up Steve moves Mo Donegal.
I have him #2, if not 1B with Epicenter.
I’d be surprised if Steve does not have Zandon pegged in the top slot…Epicenter 2nd, but… he may just throw care to the wind, and put Taiba near the top, if thay guy runs just the same as yesterday he will be right there….
I’m an old guy, Matthew. I just can’t wrap my mind around a horse winning The Kentucky Derby off of only 2 starts. But, it seems like the “old rules” are being broken all the time. I did use all-others(#24) in exacta boxes in all five Derby Future Pools. So, I will be pulling for Taiba to crack the top 2.
I’m 63, and agree with you—the old rules seem no longer relevant….just watching that last 1/8 yesterday BOTH horses fired, Taiba was drawing away….but Johnny V knew he needed points, and put Messier into the race….Love how the final Futures ended in 18-1 on Zandon and Taiba…and 24-1 on Mo Donegal—I did get down on Zandon, already had him at a huge number, got another $10 yesterday— these $1000 guys are way beyond my range, funny thing is when I was visiting my son in Reno 4 years ago there was only ONE casino that would allow a guture wager, and they had $20 max wager— don’t know WHERE these guys are getting $1000 wagers, maybe pari-mutuel but no casino will write up a $1000 wager…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Epicenter and Zandon equal no. 1. Possibly, Steve may be a little circumspect about Taiba’s win but I would expect Mo Donegal to rise quite sharply up the ladder. Where Messier lands, or falls, could be interesting.
Early on I was a big fan of Zandon and am of the opinion that he ran an awesome race on Saturday and showed he does indeed have the “right stuff” to win the Derby. Coming from last place, taking all that kickback and a masterful ride by Flavian gives me hope, that yes, a closer can still win the Kentucky Derby. In addition, he is a very, very handsome horse. Saw several photos of him last evening that were taken before the race. He reminds me very much of the 19th century paintings of famous Thoroughbreds in England and Ireland (yes, I know looks do not win the Derby). He has a lovely pedigree that should carry him the distance and Chad and Flavian have become quite a team.
So, to cut to the chase here, going into the final days before the Kentucky Derby and dependent of course on how these horses work at CHD, my favorites to win (in no particular order): Epicenter, Zandon, Tiz The Bomb, White Abarrio.
I am guessing as a part of his ranking tomorrow that Steve will have some history on colts that have won the Derby off of just two starts.
Taiba was impressive yesterday and should he win the Derby Gun Runner’s reputation at stud will get quite a boost which will make me very happy (I was a big fan of him when he was racing). My only concern is Taiba, like with any horse that is so lightly raced, is running in a 20 horse field under what could be totally different track conditions and against some colts like Zandon who have taken a few hard knocks on the trail. Guess I am trying to say that some of these colts have paid their dues to get to the Derby, Taiba has not and sometimes that can make a difference.
Yes Lynda, that’s exactly what would worry me about getting too high on Taiba. Imagine how Zandon, among others, would have performed in a prep with sunny days and only a field of just 6 runners. Early Christmas present!! Lol.
Unless Taiba is going to wire the field, as Justify did, I’d be more than concerned how Taiba, having to ship to Kentucky in the first instance, is going to perform in a field of 20. The contrast with how Zandon won the Blue Grass Stakes compared to how Taiba won the Santa Anita Derby couldn’t be more pronounced.
Moreover, as Matthew has mentioned previously, “bounce” is a warning sound that should not be unheeded.
Davids, you bring up a good point I think on how he ships. Baffert typically does not ship until a couple of days before the Derby. Tex Sutton is not back in business yet which means he will have to go Fed-Ex. Sutton allowed grooms, Fed-Ex does not. Remains to be seen of course what the replacement trainer will do as to when he ships. Cannot recall if it was before the Derby or the Preakness but Dortmund colicked a few days before the race. Cannot help but think that it affected his performance. A horse can easily drop 50 pounds with a mild colic and Dortmond was already very thin (thin, in my opinion).
Thoughts on the Grand National? I thought it was awesome!
Not sure I would totally discount the Japanese in the Derby. A filly with the same bloodlines as Crown Pride (go back to Kingmambo and Sunday Silence, just flipped, Kingmambo on top and Sunday Silence on the bottom. LOL, think I got that right) won the equivalent to our Kentucky Oaks. Comments I have read on other sites is that Crown Pride is too slow and thus has no chance.
Speed does not always win the Kentucky Derby, always other factors.
It may not be this year, but I do think Japan will win the Derby eventually.
From what I have read Crown Pride is settling in nicely at CHD and has been on the track after completing quarantine. He certainly is a good looking horse and his trip and win in Dubai does not seem to have taken much out of him, if anything.
Lynda, since the days of Red Rum, Crisp, and Desert Orchid my heart can’t handle the stress of steeplechasing. Too fearful of falls both human and equine. They are a real spectacle though, and glad you enjoyed the running. They are deeply loved in the UK much more than flat racing and have larger attendance figures.
The Japanese dirt runners are not of the same quality as their turf runners, which are world class now. You saw their bloodlines improve with every discarded ‘good’ horse from Europe and the USA. This year, the Japanese runners for the Derby don’t appear to be as good as some previous runners so I wouldn’t get too excited but you never know.
It’s not so much speed as the better runners, close up, can control the race much easier now than when a wild card speedball sprinter would spread eagle the field while enabling closers to have a better chance. Now the front runners measure their pace for the final onslaught in the last 2f., that’s the race these days. Not as exciting as it once was, perhaps.
What impresses me most about Zandon is that he can manage difficult situations within a race, what you need in a 20 horse field. Moreover, Flavian Prat is a superb rider never ruffled in a race. A good post makes Zandon the colt to beat, the feared runner for sure.
Live KD futures
TAIBA-$200@ 65-1 ,$200@ 50-1 win $23,400
CROWN PRIDE-$200@100-1 ,$100@90-1 ,$100@75-1 win $36,900
SIMPLIFICATION-$100@110-1,$100@100-1,$100@95-1 win $30,800
CHARGE IT-$100@200-1 win $20,100
SMILE HAPPY-$100@100-1 win $10.100
SLOW DOWN ANDY-$100@150-1 win $15,100
Those are great odds, Mark. Best of luck in the KD.
Two of my futures bets (Emmanuel and Rattle N Roll) will not make the Derby cut. However, I still have a $100.00 win bet on Simplification at 65-1 and another $100.00 win bet at 43-1 in Pool 2. In addition, I’ve got him boxed with the entire Pool 2 field, in my exacta wagers. Best case scenario for me, Simplification wins and White Abarrio comes in 2nd. I would cash for $18,000.00 (total).
A pipe dream? Probably.
Thank you Bill. Best of luck to you. Hope we both cash in.
Forbidden Kingdom and Classic Causeway will not race in the Kentucky Derby, their trainers said after last-place finishes in their major preps.
Charge It (40 pts) will move up to 20 and Tawny Port also with 40 up to 21.
Correction, Charge It and Tawny Port are in the top 20.
My current KD Dozen, in preferential order.
1) Simplification
2) Epicenter
3) Taiba
4) Zandon
5) White Abarrio
6) Messier
7) Mo Dongal
8) Smile Happy
9) Charge It
10) Cyberknife
11) Zozos
12) Tiz the Bomb
Early Voting ran 2nd to Mo Donegal. He should have won that race if he was good enough. He got a fairly easy lead and wasn’t bothered. If I was Jose Ortiz, I would stick with Simplification.
Was Monarchos “good enough” when he prepped running 2nd in the Wood. He ran the 1 1/4m in under 2 minutes a few weeks later.
“The world ain’t always what it seem gunny.” Levon Helm.
Did Levon say that in “The Right Stuff”? I live in his old home town.
Taiba just earned a 4 on the Ragozin Sheets…meaning that if a three year old male horse earns a 3 or 4 in a ‘spring prep race is comparable fast enough to win an average Kentucky Derby”.
If Taiba runs like he did yesterday they’re all in trouble…Messier fired, was 10 clear, and Taiba beat him like a rug! Remember though Messier had ZERO points, and was put into the race early, because Johnny V was aware of that….Taiba shut off and waited, behind the pace duel….less than a month out the bounce factor is in play—I’m learning more about Taiba, he is a SMART horse—will try hard, in company but alone he doesn’t do much …I’ve never seen a horse do what Taiba did yesterday—Exoress Train ran 1:50 2/5 in the San Pasqual, Taiba did 1:48 2/5 yesterday….and two turn times at Santa Anita have been SLOW, the entire season, I think Mr Beyer was way off in his 101 rating.
I’m starting to feel like this is a rather average group of 3-year-olds. Messier regressed off the big number he ran in The Robert Lewis. I think I saw that Taiba earned a 101 BSF which would be a slight regression from his Maiden win. Zandon given a 98 BSF and Mo Donegal 96. Epicenter is the leader in the clubhouse with a 102 BSF and a still rising numbers pattern. Nobody is running fast. Maybe the 2 Japanese horses will have a chance.
Speaking of “Fast”, a soggy Keenland turf course didn’t stop Golden Pal from strutting his stuff. Is he the fastest turf sprinter of our lifetimes? Wesley Ward obviously excels with turf sprinters. 2-turns? Not so much.
Steve I’ve always liked Tim Yakteen as a trainer, also his wife Millie Ball is everywhere at that track, you see her all day—Tim has been to the Derby with Charles Whittingham as well as Bob B, obviously never with a horse in his own name…..said this AM “You could have poured me out of a shot glass” after Adare Manor “didn’t show up” in the SA Oaks, boldly predicted she would win the Oaks…..
Yesterday’s KD Pool#5 Future Wager closed with 20% more money wagered than last year’s final pool. I’m sure that means that they will use the same formula next year: close the final pool before the last preps have been run.
9-1 on Forbidden Kingdom not looking so good in the Future Wager. Taiba would be “All Others” which closed at 18-1.
Taiba and Zandon 18-1…Mo Donegal 24-1 less than a month out, all three big winners in their big preps..
Epicenter closed at 9-2. I would guess that he will go off at about that same price on May 7th. While I think that he is the horse to beat, his numbers aren’t that much better than anyone else’s. Still, I love his pattern and his upward numbers progression. I know Steve Asmussen will have him ready to run his best race in The Derby. Barring a disastrous post position draw, I have to think that he can run 1st or 2nd. Who to box him up with: Zandon, Smile Happy, Mo Donegal, Simplification, Crown Pride, or Epicenter’s stablemate Morello who broke bad at his first try at 2-turns. 4 weeks to figure it out.
I don’t think anyone will be under 5-1 this year!
Taiba to #1!!!
Zandon
Agree, Taiba high bounce factor…Mo Donegal saved all the ground…Zandon just LOOKED like a Derby winner! Heck, they all three looked good!
Winning the Kentucky Derby is a dream come true for owners, trainers, breeders and don’t forget jockeys. So how many jockeys have that Derby experience? Yes, I know Mike Smith has it. Really looking forward to reading what Steve has to say after this weekend.
Overnight Beyers for today’s Derby preps:
Taiba 101
Zandon 98
Mo Donegal 96
No fan of ‘numbers’.
They don’t tell the whole story, do they?
No.
Taiba – beyer has been adjusted from 101 to 102
Yesterday, 4-8, I posted a comment that Taiba “could” be a monster in the making.
Edit to say, Taiba is a “monster”. Now we know why he sold for 1.7 million.
As Taiba was motoring by Messier, John Velazquez was probably thinking, I knew I should have stayed aboard Taiba. 🙂
Hats off to Mike Smith, and the new Sheriff in town, none other than Taiba. The Kentucky Derby has suddenly got real interesting.
I think Taiba will get the higher Beyer, $1.7 million horse got 103 on Mar 5th and did even better today, Steve I feel like Jack Buck when Gibson hit that HR…as good as the Remsen boys did—we saw something unbelievable today, at the Great Race Place….I said it was a bridge too far and I was wrong, can he do it again? With Forbidden Kingdom out (Mandella might try Pimlico he won’t try Churchill Downs) Taiba will be up close, and the short legged cannonball who began his career 60 days before The Derby might shock me again…..I like Zandon, and Epicenter, but the horse they will all have to beat is Taiba!
Same movie, horse rushed.
Tremendous win by Zandon in the Bluegrass. So happy to have bet Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW To win as well as boxing him with the field. I also boxed Zandon with Smile Happy and KY Derby FAV Epicenter in KDFW5. Prat rode Zandon well and closed stoutly in the stretch where Zandon split horses and passed Smile Happy for the win going away.
Two words… Real Quiet
And Lil E. Tee.
I’m expecting Taiba to bounce to the moon….Mo Donegal has lots of stamina! Rail rally helped….Zandon LOOKED like a Derby winner! Weaving in and out, then taking aim and blowing past a TOP HORSE, who was well clear, Zandon is going to be tough next month!
Don’t be so quick to dismiss Tiaba; horse is a bonifide monster What he did today was historic… Beyer will be monsterous.
Please!
I’d love to see Taiba win, but I cannot play them all. ..he already is special, and I know he’s a monster, but—Zandon and Mo Donegal needed a good prep, and they delivered…times have surely changed, yet decades of watching horses run makes me aware of the bounce factor—
far less likely the Remsen boys bounce!
A beach ball would lose out to Taiba. That wasn’t a prep for the Kentucky Derby that was going flat out to win the Santa Anita Derby and good luck to them.
Did u see Zandon? lol
Wrong regarding FK. Liked Zandon forever.
His head came up and he stopped, fell back quickly might have lost his air….
The Yak-attack is headed to Kentucky!
Mo Donegal looked like a completely different horse today. Too bad that Joel Rosario is committed to Epicenter. Irad Ortiz most likely ends up back on “MO” in The Derby IMO.
Epicenter you’ve got yourself some competition, and his name is Mo Donegal. Very impressed by his performance today.
Taiba took me by surprise. I’m sure that it’s been mentioned, But, I really don’t know. Has any horse won The Kentucky Derby off of only 2 starts? Maybe in the early days. I’m not so sure that he looked like The Derby WINNER. I’ll be looking to Steve Haskin to be “the voice of reason” on the situation with Taiba. I’m too tired to look into him this evening.
Tabia’s SA Derby victory was amazing. No question the horse has the wow factor. But winning the race in a short field vs 19 other runners in the Kentucky Derby, are not the same.
I was very happy to see what Zandon did in the Bluegrass. He was much the best. But in a 20 horse field like the derby, he better not be dead last and expect to circle the entire field. I have a few Zandon/Epicenter boxed exacta’s from future pool 4.
Like many others, I cant wait to see what Steve has to say about the races from Saturday.
Let’s see if Classic Causeway, Morello, and Forbidden Kingdom run back in The Kentucky Derby. I think Morello will. Maybe Classic Causeway. I would guess “No” with Forbidden Kingdom. I’m sure that Steve Haskin will make sense of it all. Only The Lexington left on the Road to The Kentucky Derby. It’s only worth enough points to help a “bubble” horse.
I wouldn’t run any of them in the Derby, making Messier a possible front runner….if he qualifies. If not Taiba makes the pace!
1:48 2/5 on that SA track was fast..
Three impressive winners on the day, but I’m making a note here to pair Zandon and Mo Donegal in a boxed exacta in the Derby with Zandon on top.
Just like the Remsen but opposite order, I’m looking for that finish in the Derby too. They’re the only two who have proven indisputablly that they’re 10 f. horses, running fast at the end and looking like they could have kept on going. There’s a lot of pace horses but no front runners this year, but someone will take the lead and they will follow. Mo D. was far pretty far back. Great training jobs by Brown and Pletcher, considering the long layoff and few races for each.
Oh, my! For weeks I looked forward to seeing Forbidden Kingdom and Messier hook up in the Santa Anita Derby. I thought it would be the Race of the Year. Granted they didn’t beat much in their previous outs, but they really impressed me, and I couldn’t even decide which one I liked better. I finally picked Messier but I expected great performances from both. I haven’t decided yet how today will affect my picks, but I think a lot less of both horses than I did an hour ago.
Flightline Vs Life is Good in the Met Mile will be the Race of the Year. Prat on Zandon is looking very strong to me, only a bad post will stop them, maybe not even that.
So those are done and can’t wait to read what Steve has to say. That was a great run by Zandon.
Not much to write about, Steve . (hehe..)..
Taiba is built like another SA Derby winner Tiago, short and stout…..nice rhythmic stride on him! Good time, for Santa Anita….
Taiba’s dam, Needmore Flattery, was a monster in Ohio. 39 starts, 17 – 4 – 6. I used to follow her, old style racehorse.
Well….EXCUUUUUUUUSE ME. Nailed it perfectly (SA Derby).
The higher priced of the Tim Yakteen runners wins! That guy is amazing. That’s the way that BB used to do it. Forbidden Kingdom might have hit his wall at a mile and an eighth.
Not that long ago Simon Callaghan put the wrong silks on a multi-owned horse named Abel Tasman, and horse was given to Bob right before the Kentucky Oaks, which she won, among other gr1 stakes races, Bob said at the time “it happens”…well this time it happened to Bob….
Zandon closed at 18-1 in KD Future Pool. I like him. I wouldn’t give up on Smile Happy. He had a case of “the wides” all the way around the track. Mo Donegal surprised me with his great finish. Joel Rosario got a pretty good feel for the competition. Things are getting really exciting. Adare Manor was disappointing, but, she looked a little “keyed up” before the race to me.
Remsen horses ran lights out, both closed into soft pace—Zandon is not a heave horse, he looked to me like the 2022 Kentucky Derby winner!
Zandon will be finishing regardless in the KD but would benefit if
positioned near the front going into the first turn. Otherwise, traffic
may cost him. Like how Prat navigated him to the front though.
At last, Zandon. Brilliant ride.
Really loved the way he blew by Smile Happy in the stretch.
Sam Waley-Cohen and Noble Yeats win the 2022 Grand National! 50-1 shot and this was Sam’s last race as he is retiring.
All 40 horses returned to their stalls!
Thanks for that great news at the end, Lynda!
Well there’s wonderful news! Thank you for sharing!
Simplification is sitting at 35-1 in The KD Future Wager as of a couple of minutes ago. If you liked him going into The Florida Derby, 35-1 is worth a bet IMO. Odds can change drastically before the pool closes this afternoon. I think I’ll risk $20 on him. I already have a few exacta boxes that include him.
Here’s why I don’t like this business of The KD Future Wager closing this afternoon before the prep races have been run. Today is a huge day of horseracing action and we shouldn’t have to be distracted by The Future Wager today. It’s too much. It belongs on Sunday afternoon IMO.
But if you wait till the preps are all run, it’s like Derby Day— right now Zandon and Smile Happy are fat odds!
As of about 15 minutes ago, the turf races are still a “Go” at Aqueduct with both courses rated “good”. Main track “Fast” according to the NYRA Website.
Not sure about the Keenland track conditions. I can see that one of the turf races is moved to the main track.
Nest looked fantastic winning at Keenland on Friday. I wish that I had included her in my Kentucky Oaks Future Wager exacta boxes. She looks like a smaller filly to me. But, I’m only seeing her on TV and have no way of knowing for sure. The Oaks is going to be a fun race.
Nest ran so well yesterday, maybe TOO WELL, as a final prep….the strongest field on Derby Weekend may be on Friday! Kathleen O…Hidden Connection…Echo Zulu….Secret Oath…Goddess of Love….Nest….and THREE very nice fillies in today’s SA Oaks, formerly the Santa Susana. …
Nest was only galloping at the end, Matthew W. Looked like she was having a great time. Since I picked her to win, I’m biased.
I knew Nest was a nice filly, but I didn’t know she was THAT nice! Horses can really improve in their early three year old seasons, and well-bred Nest might be any kind..
The 1.7 million dollar Gun Runner colt, Taiba, could be a monster in the making. Obviously, he’ll have to pass the class test facing Messier and Forbidden Kingdom in the SA Derby, but I can’t remember seeing a first out maiden winner earn a 103 Beyer speed figure. Can he beat the top two? Probably not, but it’s certainly possible.
4/ 3-6/3-6 ($50.00 Trifecta P/W)
Safe trips to all.
Want to wish everyone good luck betting this weekend so we all have a little extra in our pockets heading into the derby. I don’t see any value in a win bet in any of the preps (in relation to the risk).
So my play this weekend is a big Place bet on Rattle N Roll. RNR, Zandon, and Smile Happy came out of the strongest races. And I’m putting stock in McPeek pivoting from the Lexington to the Blue Grass because RNR is telling him he’s ready for a good one.
If RNR goes off at 8-1 or higher, maybe I can get 3-1 or 7-2 on the Place. I’ll also have exactas with Zandon and Smile, and a big trifecta with RNR running third behind those two.
Anybody see race 5 at Keeneland today? 3-9-8-10 – clear order of finish. Tote posts 3-8-9-10, race goes official and pays out. Ten minutes later they catch the error and payout again , this time correctly 3-9-8-10. Crazy! That’s a first for me, never seen before. Exacta 3-8 paid $35. Exacta 3-9 paid $35 – I looked at will pays prior to race and those are correct. $.10 Superfecta 3-8-9-10 paid $494 then 3-9-8-10 paid $569. This had to have cost somebody a million dollars!
I had these combos boxed. Which payout should I have received or both?
That was unbelievable, especially not catching it until after it was official. Cant believe you were in the middle of it. Imagine being on line to collect and have a person in front of you collect and then they announce the mistake and you lose.
I wonder— did Keeneland pay out on computer wagers on the same manner?
I play on Twinspires. As soon as race went official, I received the first (mistake) payout for the race 3-8-9-10.
Nothing more. Not much difference, the correct superfecta paid $75 more. I think Twinspires should honor the correct win amount. I think if I had been on track and held the ticket for a race, when I cashed it, I might have received both payouts. Don’t know for sure. Really dumb. The keyboard operator must have fat fingers or maybe he spilled pop on his keyboard and the keys were sticky! Somebody is going to get fired.
And here are us Mandaloun betters being told “once a race is official, it is official.” This is an obvious case of that not being true. I have to agree to not litigate against Churchill or TwinSpires every time I log in to TwinSpires. As Holden Caulfield once said, “what a bunch of phonies.”
I am wrong about the litigate part of above statement. Quite frankly, I don’t understand their arbitration agreement.
Yeah, night owl here. I want to further clarify that I do not have a problem with TwinSpires as a wagering platform. In fact, I quite enjoy it and recommend it to those who can’t make it to the track for live racing. I do however, (after the 4/8 Keeneland race 5) have a problem conceptualizing what is official and what is not in Kentucky. After rereading the arbitration provision alluded to, I do believe I get it now, and do believe there is a process to attempt to rectify any disputes. My apologies to all for being flippant. I assumed that because the provision was added after the 2021 derby that it was a just a way of closing the door on disgruntled gamblers. There is a process. It is just not worth it to me. I applaud how Keeneland handled it.
The provision may have always been apart of the terms and conditions for usage, I can’t remember everything I agree to to function on the internet, but the box I have to check upon log in every time acknowledging it was certainly added within the last year. And finally, I know the two situations are comparing apples to oranges. I’m only comparing official to official and how one can be deemed official and the other can be redeemed officially official. Good morning and good luck this year. I yield my time.
Last night while listening to a jazz quintet and drinking too much red wine, I had perfect clarity on how to bet tomorrow’s races. (Doesn’t seem so obvious now, duh.)
Blue Grass: likely winner is SMILE HAPPY
Exacta box: Will play against type and $1 box ZANDON with COMMANDPERFORMANCE and ZANDON with EMMANUEL
Superfecta: Hoping to recover from my exacta failures, I’ll $1 box Smile Happy, Zandon, Commandperformance, and Emmanuel.
Surely that would pay more than $16.
Wood: likely winner is MORELLO
Exacta box: Again, going against him with $1 box BARESE/GOLDEN CODE
Santa Anita Derby: likely winner is either MESSIER or FORBIDDEN KINGDOM. Taiba may offer mild upset value. Otherwise, Is there a point to even picking 1 through 4? This could be the lowest priced superfecta ever, if they even offer it.
The most appealing price should be Emmanuel
Going by the hourly weather forecast at Lexington, the track might be ok by Blue Grass Stakes time. Mind you, I realize how changeable the weather is in Kentucky.
Another impressive filly, Nest, just won the Ashland Stakes. The Oaks is going to be a race and a half.
What’s up with Keeneland?…..track says “muddy” .. track wasn’t even wet ….
Matthew, the cameraman/technology might be making the track look better than it is. At times, you see sloppy mud in certain areas but the track is draining beautifully from what I can see but then again, I’m not there.
Davids – just checked the forecast. The chance of rain/snow has decreased below 50%. However it is going to be a chilly start to the day with temps getting down in the thirties tonight. The rain will probably be what I call “ice water rain” that will chill human and animal to the bone. Add up to 15 mph winds, there might be a wind chill factor to consider. High tomorrow will be mid forties.
Hope everyone attending the race takes a warm jacket and rain gear just in case.
Thanks Lynda, excellent advice. Fingers crossed, not too much rain.
I’m hoping he runs big — but then I feel that way about all four horses in my super.
I remember seeing Taiba break his Maiden and I just re-watched that race to refresh my memory. He’s a fast horse. Johnny V sticks with Messier in The Santa Anita Derby. I’m not suggesting anything nefarious, but, it’s a horse race that has a trainer with 3 horses entered. While Taiba is fast, he drew the outside post position. The only one of the Tim Yakteen/BB runners to draw inside of Forbidden Kingdom is Armagnac to be ridden by DVD. I think that Armagnac will again try to beat Forbidden Kingdom to the lead after failing to do so in The Robert Lewis. I think Taiba will try to stay close to Forbidden Kingdom and I think that Johnny V will have Messier in the catbird seat just behind those three horses. Ready to pounce when they turn for home. That’s the way that I would draw it up. Juan Hernandez on Forbidden Kingdom needs to concentrate on running his own race. Let Armagnac and Taiba go if need be. While keeping his eye on Messier. Messier is the horse he has to beat.
Believe it or not, I agree with most of your scenario as to how the race will play out.
IMHO Baffert convinced Zedan that the colt has a real shot at not only winning the SAD but the KD as well. Zedan has been very adamant for months that he stands 100% behind Baffert and that his horse would not go to the Derby unless Baffert is the trainer. But perhaps that was the plan all along, to leave Baffert as the trainer until the last possible minute.
I read yesterday, I think it was, that most of Baffert’s stable remains at Santa Anita in their same stalls and that Baffert only took down his signs. Barnes and the rest of Baffert’s staff are still working. Also, it is my opinion that Baffert is still calling all the shots even though he is on the 90 day suspension at CHD, New York and SA.
There are also opinions floating around that without Baffert (he retires, etc), Santa Anita racetrack will eventually go out of business and the property sold for development given the mindset of many Californians and their desire to stop horse racing in California.
The field size at Santa Anita has been shrinking for years. Many of the jockeys have moved to the East Coast.
If I was going to comment on which horse will win. place in the SAD, I would say that Messier and Tiaba will both earn the points to run in the Kentucky Derby….one will get the 100 and the other will get the 40. Forbidden Kingdom is already in or should be with 40 points he already has. Taking 3rd or 4th will serve to give him added cushion in the points standing. All he really has to do is run clean, safe and not blow the race. Papa Mandella has been around the block many times.
What I read was the new trainers had to apply for the stalls of formerly trained by Baffert horses. I also read he had 90 horses there as well. If you are going to take on the horses it would make sense to take on the staff to care for them as well.
Like many other tracks there is always pressure to sell for real estate and development. It will be up to the board at the track and the jockey club to keep the track going. The push to stop horse racing isn’t limited to California either.
As for the race we all find out Saturday. Just 6 horses so you get points, speed numbers. Then on to the Derby with what looks like the full 20 horses to run.
Laura, yes there was a caveat in the CHRB statement that the staff could be transferred to the newly assigned trainers provided the replacement trainers handled the payroll etc. As to assistant trainers like Barnes, the verbiage was somewhat unclear or I guess you could say, subject to interpretation by the CHRB.
Yes, the push to bring an end to horse racing does have a strong following in New York as well as California. Sad thing is that CDI purchased Colonial Downs in Virginia (the only race track in Virginia) with intentions to do just that….develop the land and close the track or replace the track with a casino. Colonial Downs is a very valuable piece of real estate as well. New Kent County, where the track is located (off I-64) was a rural area. Over the years, both New Kent County and James City County have seen a boom in real estate development; beautiful farms are now golf courses, condominiums etc. The area has in effect become a bedroom community for Richmond to the west (50 minute drive and the Hampton-Newport News metro-plex to the east (roughly the same drive time, perhaps a little less).
As to Saturday, I see the SAD as Messier’s race to lose. I do not think anything less than 2nd is going to earn his slot in the Derby.
FK has 50. FK pevails.
Here is a question for everyone. In the Wood Memorial, who are the two fastest horses on Thoro-Graph based on last-out numbers?
That’s a very interesting question. I would like to know. I can tell you that Morello had the highest last race BSF at a one-turn mile. The nature of your question suggests that it will be a surprising answer. So, I’m going to guess Mo Donegal and Skippylongstocking.
Nope
My guess: Skippylongstocking and A.P. Secret.
Nope
That leaves Long Term, the maiden and four-time bridesmaid.
There ya go. Lol
Only took me two guesses. I must be really smart!!
Golden Code and A.P.s Secret.
Morello and Barese?
I’d second Nelson’s, choice.
I know Barese is one of them, because you mentioned it in a previous column. I’m hoping the other is Golden Code, because that it my long-shot exacta!
Yes Barese is one
Golden Code the other?
Nope. Lol
Oops, meant to post LONG TERM here. He’s the only one left!
Good guess. Lol
No offense, but, I would have to disagree with your statement that The Santa Anita Derby is shaping up as “the premier KD prep race of the year”. I don’t care what the BSFs are. You have 2 standouts and a Maiden winner running against 3 over-matched horses IMO. The Risen Star at Fairgrounds was loaded. Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zandon ran 1,2,3. I’m going to revisit that race and remind myself of what other horses ran in that race.
If you dont reply to someone where it says reply under their comment no one knows who youre replying to to unless they go search for it.
Sorry, Steve. It’s probably best that he doesn’t see it anyway. I really don’t want to start any trouble.
Youre free to disagree with anyone.
Besides Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zandon, Trafalgar, Tawny Port, Pappacap, Pioneer of Medina, and slow Slow Down Andy were in that race. I say that The Risen Star was the best of all the Kentucky Derby prep races.
I guess it comes down to how a person defines “best prep-race”. Maybe Forbidden Kingdom and Messier go on to have an Affirmed/Alydar type rivalry throughout The Triple Crown. I doubt it, but, who knows? The Risen Star was a deep and talented field.
Strongest overall field, I agree.
The Santa Anita Derby Saturday is shaping up as the premier KD prep race of the year….as I remember three of the horses entered have the top Beyer speed ratings of the year for this age group (Taiba/103, Messier/103, Forbidden Kingdom/98).
I look for a replay of the Bob Hope Stakes (DM) whereas Mike Smith on Winning Map stalked FK most of the way until the stretch whereas Messier blew by both of them.
Except this time I believe Smith has a powerhouse of a horse in Taiba and look for two horse race with Messier down the stretch and predicting that Taiba wins this one.
I see so many people picking Zandon that I’m starting to wonder if he goes off favored in The Bluegrass. Zandon picks up Flavien Prat and drew a more favorable post. Chad Brown always attracts attention. Smile Happy out in the #10 post and the Kenny McPeek runners have been mostly disappointing on The Derby Trail except for the under-the-radar Tiz the Bomb. But, don’t forget that Tiz the Bomb also disappointed in The Holy Bull. He had to sneak over to Turfway Park to get his act together. Full disclosure: I’m thinking of putting a bet on Zandon myself.
Maybe we can count on the Mattress Mac money to keep Smile Happy favored. According to things that I’ve read on the internet, Mr. McInvale won lots of money on the NCAA Title game and those winnings are probably burning a hole in his pocket.
Possible “off” tracks at both Keenland and Aqueduct on Saturday. That’s the hazards of waiting until the last preps to get your points. Epicenter sitting pretty and chillin’ in the barn. His prep-work all done.
Today will be day three of 100 degree weather on SoCal….supposed to drop some tomorrow….was 101 yesterday, at 6pm.
That’s an ominous sign for summer I hope it doesn’t eventuate. Here we had a milder summer than usual but you are always fearful of bushfires starting.
I thought yhe SoCal Winter was cooler than usual…past three days have been hard to take, they came up so quickly….yesterday I put a Diet Pepsi, water and ice into a freezer bag for our hard working mail guy, sudden heat like that is tough on a guy walking all day!
You’re a good man.
If you had to put $1,000 to win on one horse, from any one of the three major preps this weekend (Anita, Blue, Wood), who would you put it on?
My answer is Zandon in the Blue Grass.
The weather would stop me putting the 1,000 on Zandon. I’d go for Forbidden Kingdom.
Hi Davids, the weather forecast I looked at says a couple of showers in the morning, otherwise cloudy and cold by post time. And Zandon ran a game 2nd last Dec. when it was in the low 40’s in New York. So just going by past performance, I don’t see the weather as a negative.
And I was considering Forbidden Kingdom, but thought Messier posed too much of a threat. I really hope FK runs well and makes the derby.
That’s sounds much better than the last time I looked. I’m really hoping that Zandon performs well.
Hi Lil ET: I like your confidence in Zandon and hopeful that he will run big on Saturday in the Bluegrass. I bet Zandon to win at 56-1 in KDFW1 and boxed him with the field.
56-1 is amazing. Great foresight to get in at that price. Got any stock tips? 🙂
Messier.
Solid. I didn’t think he was beatable last time, so I’m a fan of the horse and his current form.
Mo Donegal
Liam that’s an interesting call. I was ready to bet him next out after his Holy Bull, but something happened hence the long break between works, so I don’t know what to expect now. I applaud your confidence though.
I will put 1000 to win on Early Voting to get 2,500 back …
Nelson what’s your angle on Early Voting? He seems to be coming out of a slow race so I couldn’t land on him myself.
I replied earlier but somehow my reply was taken as a spam… anyways, Beyer confirmed that the speed ratings for the Withers are inaccurate.
I was impressed by the way Early Voting separated from the field in the Withers displaying efficient strides while clocking very strong fractional times. The two horses that tried to engage him early ended 15 and 42 lengths behind. Un Ojo and Grantham have proven that the Withers was a legit prep. He will benefited from the projected pace in the Wood …
The son of Gun Runner has lived up to the expectations since his impressive debut and is one of the best pedigrees for the Classics.
Even in a loss, good call on Early Voting, Nelson. He ran big.
I’d have to agree with Matthew W. and go with Messier as well.
That was in answer to the question posted, I’m not betting any of the preps, this weekend.
Steve, is there a filly you like for the Kentucky Oaks? Shug McGaughey‘s filly Kathleen O. is very impressive. Imagine, an Upstart Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks double. Those Upstart progeny are sleek racy types, they look fast standing still.
As usual…good post….Upstart was my Derby play, and he finished last….the next year I played a big price who had run a distant 2nd, in the Florida Derby, Majestico, I think was his name-o…..he ran last, also!
three big stakes this weekend. will have yo wait until then
Thanks Steve, yes very busy weekend just hoping the weather holds at Keeneland. This year’s group of 3 year old fillies appear stronger overall than the colts. Time will tell.
Davids the Santa Anita filly race has Adare Manor, who has been very good both races this year….Ain’t Easy who ran better than looks on paper in her first start back…as well as Under the Stars—whose last work was terrific! She’s kin to a real good horse, too—cannot remember the name, strong field. Agree this year has better fillies!
Yes Matthew, the Santa Anita Oaks looks like a cracking good race. Should be Grade 1 really. Under the Stars is closely related to Bodemeister. The less favored fillies are no slouches either.
Santa Anita Derby day is always a highlight. Have a great day.
Thank you I may bet on the returnee Coast of Roan in the SA last at 10-1— but that’s about it, for me at Santa Anita tomorrow!
I’m getting up at 4:30 am to catch all the major races coast to coast. Just perfect. Hope you have a great day at Santa Anita and it’s not too hot.
I was a bit the same, initially the Upstarts appeared to be precarious sprinter/milers but his second crop has really impressed with more scope, Classic types. Reinvestment Risk might make some noise in the Carter Stakes as well as Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes so it could be a positive weekend for Upstart, Chad Brown, and Airdrie Stud.
Like Zandon.
I formally request permission to use your catchphrase “they look fast standing still” in my ads to sell horses.
No more under-tack shows for 2-year-olds … just pictures with nice poses! LOL
Ha ha Granted, lol. The Seattle Slew colt Capote epitomized that look. Poise, while looking to be on the verge of exploding. Zilzal was another.
cant get last years Santa Anita Derby out of my mind when Medina did not try to win just run very decent stay wide and pick up some points and be ready for derby. Kingdom could do the same, not fall for the other Baffert speed trap and run a sneaky SMART race, get enough points, let Messier win by 5 as he needs those points like GRIM death and Messier is like Rock your world. any chance?
I think you might be on to something…he has enough points already.
That said, I don’t think he wants the 10 furlongs..
You feelin’ the Real Quiet and Manarchos vibe are ya?
I was thinking that’d be what Messier would do, tour the oval, run 2nd, grab the 40 points and book a flight to Churchill.
Fair argument but the difference with Medina Spirit running in the Santa Anita Derby and both Messier and Forbidden Kingdom is that the latter two have the pedigree to become sires, which Medina Spirit did not. Both Forbidden Kingdom and Messier will enhance their value considerably after winning a Grade 1 race.
I wish we knew more about the Japanese horses. They’ve been major players all over the world in the last year. One of these days they may breakthrough in The Derby. But, I’ve always said that I’ll wait for them to win one first before I start playing them against our best 3-year olds.
They as in the Japanese have made a serious effort in buying bloodstock here in the US and Europe. They did well in the Breeder Cup races last year. I would say why wait and at least put a show bet on Crown Pride this year. A few come across the pond to try the Kentucky Derby but mostly they are focused on their own racing over there. Only a few trainers here send anything to race at Ascot or in France.
Thanks. I’ll check out Crown Pride.
Don’t expect to make a lot of money from my betting tips, lol. Last time I did more then break even was at Charlestown when Shared Belief was running and broke down. Had money on him but also on the horse that had won the year before. Mike saved his life that day and was right at the rail when he walked by carrying the saddle and fighting tears back. Up until then had been having a great time. That track is close by but have never been back.
We have seen some favorites win prep races this year and others come up short. The Japanese tried a few years ago at the Derby, didn’t do much but think that was a learning experience for them. I will be watching or trying to with my somewhat limited internet streaming, all 3 prep races but think the Bluegrass will answer the most questions. Still have the Lexington but after this weekend they either have the points or they don’t.
Crown Pride shipped straight over and should be working soon if not already.
The 3 Derby preps are on NBC, main channel.
That’s great if you have a tv! I on the other hand am camping, long term and have my cell phone that hooks to the laptop. I can watch but it will pause sometimes during the race. Is what it is.
Since the Derby Future Wager closes before the Saturday preps are run, I’m going to go ahead and put in a few exacta boxes keying Epicenter with 4 of the longer prices: Mo Donegal, Simplification, Tiz the Bomb, and Zandon. I feel like Epicenter is as likely as anybody to finish 1st or 2nd. But, even the best laid plans go down the tubes when your horse draws the rail or the extreme outside post. I think it was 1986 when Bill Shoemaker gave Ferdinand a cool/veteran ride from the 1-hole to pay something like $50 for the win. Wow! That was 35 years ago. We all know that no horse has ever won from the 1-hole in Churchill’s new 20-stall starting gate. I guess we can agree that there is limited data on that.
Does the 20-horse gate now take away the terrible angle that the #1 post ad to suffer? Watch the War Admiral Derby, he is ridden like a Quarter Horse out of the one-hole, making the front and then he held sway throughout—a terrific performance—
From memory, the 1 post is now more like the 2 or 3 post, with more room, but it doesn’t stop 19 horse crossing to the inside. The 8 foot space between post 14 to post 15 is eliminated which was often a source of problems. While the 20 post is closer in.
Better but not wonderful. Post 1 is still extremely undesirable while 17 – 20 are vastly improved. Just don’t get Post 1.
20 eligible does not always mean 20 in the gate race day. I don’t bet futures, don’t have that much money to play or lose. Might get better odds but prefer to wait until race day when they are in the paddock and even then you can still get a scratch if something happens while they are loading in the gate.
Steve, IF….you toss out his Florida race—-Tiz the Bomb in his last two races has put together a strong case for the Roses! His final time was .02 faster than the Kentucky Cup for older horses, and he was coming away like a nice thing…..big frame, big moves, running fastest at the end—all things you want to see—the caveat is will he dirt?…..IF he handles Churchill–he fits, and fits well, but the key word is IF.
His big 15 length maiden win at Ellis—was on a race that was taken off turf, so it was probably a rolled surface–well—Churchill is known for tooling their Derby Day surface, for faster times—another angle/another thing to ponder—hey, Ponder won the Roses, too!
Am hoping Forbidden Kingdom runs big on Sat—I really want him in the Derby, which would prime the pace, for sure–am not making any big wagers ($20 & $20 is my limit) this weekend, I’ve bet every prep but only four big–and cashed winners on three—am going to wain, now for first Saturday, because this year looks wide open, I might need some extra moolah, to get the 2022 trifecta!
Lastly—methjinks this weekend’s preps will be a chalk fest….
McPeek was very high on him as a Derby horse early in the year. I do like that the Jeff Ruby was far more impressive than the Battaglia with a race over that track. I am tying to find out more about the Holy Bull so I can throw it out. Will know more in the next Rankings.
He’s the 2022 “if” horse, cuz if he handles Churchill he looks like one of the ones .
Tiznow may not get his Derby winner as a sire….perhaps as a broodmare sire he will!
Good morning Steve, could I bother you for the TG patterns on Zozos and Barber Road? Lookin for a price horse to hit the board on May 7! Many thanks for ALL your work & info.
Barber Road 4 1/2…7 1/4…4 1/2….7 1/4…6 1/2…9 1/4
Zozos 3…3 1/2…8 1/2
Hi Steve, reading your response to one of the posts from below… did I understand correctly that Rattle N Roll was originally targeting the Lexington? If you confirm yes, I will put a big Place bet on him in the Blue Grass.
Yes, that’s what McPeek said.
Great, thanks for confirming.
FK for home run.
Steve,someone says pedigree query has info that will tell if a horse can get 10furlongs.He said it’s been right for 40 years. I can’t get thru to pedigree query. Where can I start looking?
Just pedigreequery.com
Does that someone go by the name of Chico Marx?
Chico was probably the most underrated Marx brother.
I like Zandon on Saturday….and Morello…..no real idea about the SA Derby….
Completely agree about Zandon and Morello. Will single Morello in my P5. Only using Zandon and Smile Happy from the Bluegrass in that P5.
Normally I wouldn’t be so sure about a horse that doesn’t really need to win, but Morello does need a big two turn race in him, so I like him on top….McPeek is confident in Smile Happy, but he drew poorly, and Zandon sports those fast-for-Chad works…that and I like Prat cuz he rarely puts up a bad ride, he’s the very best at getting an early position!
Do you know the Dusty Springfield song “Wishing and Hoping”? …Wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’. Well, Zandon, Forbidden Kingdom and A.P.’s Secret for an upset.
Then on Sunday: Man City vs Liverpool at City’s home ground. If City win, the premiership is theirs!! Extremely tense weekend all round. The nerves will be fraying.
Pass on the SA Derby. Just on principle. 😉
Agree, I don’t like last minute barn changes, or unseasoned horses in a Gr1….Taiba did look good but this is a bridge too far.
Great blog Steve, as usual you did a fantastic job of trying to sort out these horses. After these last few preps I suppose we will know more about how things look. For me, based on how I select horses I can’t bet a horses off of 2 races.
On a visual level seeing these horses you know much more about these horses then I do. Speaking of Smile Happy & Zandon I can’t force myself to like them. I do however like Zozos for some reason. He really needed that last prep. If Messier wins the Santa Anita Derby then he would be my other go to horse. West coast horses historically do well in the Kentucky Derby.
Obviously Epicenter needs to be bet in the exotics as I am confidant he will hit the board.
Thanks as always for your hard work.
Thanks very much Deacon. enjoy the races
Deacon, a ‘BIG if’.
Santa Anita was able to get 6 horses for The Santa Anita Derby thanks to a couple of last minute trainer changes. Both Taiba and Armagnac were transferred from BB to Tim Yakteen seemingly overnight. The field consists of 2 Doug O’Neill’s, 3 Tim Yakteen/BB’s, and Richard Mandella’s Forbidden Kingdom. They got poor Mandella surrounded. Armagnac already tried and failed to go after Forbidden Kingdom once. Let’s see who tries to beat him to the lead this time. Messier 1-1 ML & Forbidden Kingdom 6-5 ML. It will be a “watch” race for me.
I hate to always sound so negative about Santa Anita. I want them to survive. I really do. I’ve been to the races at Santa Anita more times than any other track. I’ve spent some of my most enjoyable afternoons there with friends, family, and even alone. They are in a big battle out there with seemingly no political support. Last weekend, it looked like they had pretty good field size in many of their races. But, I see some very short fields in their best Stakes races Saturday on what should be their biggest day of the year. I live in Florida now, but, I will be going out to California for a Nephew’s Graduation next year and look forward to squeezing in a side-trip to The Great Race Place one last time. I figure that I’ll tell my family that I’m going to 7Eleven. I hope that they don’t get suspicious when I’m gone for about 7 hours. Traffic around Los Angeles is always a great excuse.
Maybe you’ll get lucky and tap out early. Lol. Theyll never catch on.
It wouldn’t be the first time that I “tapped out” at a racetrack.
I understand about wanting SA to make it. We’ve lost too many good tracks over the years.
Still hard for me to believe Hollywood is gone.
Aqueduct likely next…
Steve, what do you think of Commandperformance’s chances in the Blue Grass? I was delighted to see his name among the entries.
Dear Ms. B: I am glad to see CP in the Bluegrass, he is training well and maybe he needed that 2nd in MSW to move forward. Maybe the light bulb will go off and he could be dangerous. I would love to see him finish in top 3, I bet him in KDFW3.
It wasnt Pletcher’s decision to run him. I believe he was looking at the Peter Pan and Belmont. After his last race who knows what hes going to do here whn he could win a maiden race/
Thanks. I hope he outperforms expectations.
Taiba (Zedan Racing) has been moved to Tim Yakteen and is set to run in the SAD. That will give Mr. Baffert’s trainees three last chances to win the needed points to be in KD.
Taiba runs like the next coming of Justify, too.
Deep in of pool quick!
I’m going to be interested if Messier or Forbidden Kingdom will have a real throwdown or if one will have an easy victory. Hard to tell if the races these two have had really “seasoned” them to have the experience of eyeing others that can run with them and how they’ll react come the first Saturday in May.
Vic: How about the potential for Taiba to upset Messier and Forbidden Kingdom? It could happen. He’s very fast. I wonder how far back you have to go to find a Kentucky Derby winner with only TWO previous starts.
At least as far back as 1937. Probably much longer.
Extremely unlikely. he only has one start and let’s just say he’s successful, he goes into the Kentucky Derby with only 2 starts to get 10 furlongs in May, it’s more likely to end his career than lengthen it.
I really like Forbidden Kingdom’s second to last workout.
Agreed regarding FK.
There is certainly nothing to dislike about his works.
His works were favorable.
I’m totally off of Commandperformance, but, I’m still hopeful with Rattle N Roll. I think that I have Commandperformance pegged for what he is. He’s not fast and doesn’t really quicken. The one place where he might surprise people is on an “off” track. He keeps coming while others could be spinning their wheels in mud. An “off” track could be the great equalizer. His only hope IMO. Irad Ortiz sticks with him though.
The weather is looking ok for Saturday in New York, Lexington looks grim for Saturday, while at Santa Anita start singing “California Dreamin’.”
SA on Friday is forecasted to be near or above the century mark.
I should’ve included Saturday’s forecast since that’s SA Derby Day. It’s cooling down to potential sweater weather of a high of 85. Best of luck to all.
Liam, we can live with 85. Lock it in.
My attempt at some weather-wit seems to have failed.
Liam, no worries, I chuckled. You scored!
Was 88 today, I had to hose down my Great Dane, Blues.
Matthew, is your Great Dane, blue in color? Gorgeous dogs.
Mo Donegal drew the rail with Joel Rosario, Early Voting #3, and Morello perfectly drawn in the #5 post. The Carter looks like a really good race with First Captain, Speaker’s Corner, Reinvestment Risk, Mind Control, and Green Light Go. There are even some turf races at Aqueduct on Saturday.
The Carter is a one horse race! Progressively better works, after a powerful race this girthy horse is a cut above..(Soeakers Corner..)
Not only Rattle N Roll, but, Commandperformance was also a surprise entry in The Blue Grass. What a great race and a great card at Keenland on Saturday. Stars throughout the program. Let’s hoe that the weather doesn’t mess up the turf races.
hope
I wonder what is Steve’s take about running Rattle N Roll in the Blue Grass… only two weeks after the Louisiana Derby… Desperation or confidence in the horse running much better now against very good rivals?
Hey Nelson
I’m not sure how Steve feels about RNR in the Blue Grass, but one thing to keep in mind, he won the Breeders’ Futurity over this same track. I like RNR’s chances to at least finish in the money, and secure enough points to make the KD starting gate.
I believe it’s confidence, not desperation, is the reason McPeek entered RNR in the Blue Grass. Just my opinion.
You are probably right .. Perhaps McPeek is assuming a cut off of 30 points … then RNR will need only a 4th place to enter Derby picture… and the trainer must also feel confident about Smile Happy having enough points (40) …
Good for the fans though… we like to see those horses run more… don’t we?
Thanks for the reply Nelson
One other thing to consider, Smile Happy and RNR are owned by Lucky Seven Stable. Possibly, they’re thinking, if one doesn’t fire, maybe the other one will. Just something to ponder.
Good point…
McPeek is counting on the addition of blinkers to do the trick…interesting topic for discussions until he decides to scratch and wait for the Lexington …!!!
I’d say the shocking weather predicted- anything can happen.
Davids – not really shocking. It is really not that unusual for Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia or the North Carolina and North Georgia mountains to get snow in April. The percent chance is 54%, starting with rain/snow mix in the morning and all rain in the late afternoon. Really not much chance of it sticking, surface temps too warm. Since rain is on tap for Friday and Sat AM and late afternoon, most likely will be muddy.
My immediate concern is the forecast for super cell thunderstorms in Northwest Georgia tonight. (I live in NE Georgia).
Supercell thunderstorms are typical for the Plains states, but as a rule not Georgia and East Tennessee.
A friend in Texas who trains Thoroughbreds did take a lot of damage night before last. An EF2 tornado demolished one of her barns. Luckily everyone (2 feet and 4 feet) was not injured.
Stay safe Lynda, I’ve only been in a cyclone once and that was once too many. Keeneland is a favorite track but rain/snow/wind can spoil the atmosphere while ruining the racing especially for those who are there. I’ve bee waiting and waiting for the return of Zandon, as well as Naval Aviator (race 4), and now it’s spoiled by the weather.
Just hope it’s not too bad.
Shocked. McPeek said Lexington is next.
That’s what I thought from your previous assessments…
Even Commandperformance makes more sense running in the Blue Grass.
That was not Pletcher”s decision
Great Draw for Zandon from PP4 in the Bluegrass. Smile Happy Drew outside from PP10. Zandon should be able to save ground going into the first turn and blast home in the stretch trying to hold of the late closing punch of Smile Happy. Emmanuel also drew well from PP6 , so we will see how good he is. I’m glad to see that Commandperformance is at entered here in PP1 as he tries to pick up more points. My 3 KDFW horses are Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1, Tiz The Bomb from KDFW2 and Commandperformance from KDFW3. Tiz is in and will be a long shot whereas Zandon is still trying to punch his ticket and the maiden Commandperformance tries to get more points. Safe trips to all.
Steve I don’t think any horse that ran in Florida or Arkansas on Saturday is finishing in the money on the first Saturday in May. Maybe Charge It gets a piece other than that nothing.
You could be right. I sure am not going to argue with you. I was very uninspired.
Rattle N Roll is entered into the Blue Grass Stakes…What is McPeek doing with this guy?!
The Local Seth
Mcpeek is trying to secure enough points to have Rattle N Roll in the KD starting gate, it’s just that simple.
If Rattle N Roll can replicate his G1, Breeders’ Futurity performance, he should be right there, in the Blue Grass.
Dismiss RNR at your own peril.
2 week turnaround is what I was referring to. That’s pretty taxing.
Hi The Local Seth,
As an “old-timer” I not only remember, but prefer horses to come back more quickly than they do today.
While one could make a case that the breed is more fragile due to inbreeding, I feel trainers have become too cautious by having so few preps in their horses – not just at three leading up tot he Derby but as two year-olds as well.
It seems almost every other year in Britain you find a horse running twice at the Royal Ascot meet held over five days. Needless to say, these aren’t cheap claimers but some of the finest thoroughbreds in England and Ireland (and beyond.)
If Rattle N Roll runs in the top two at Keeneland this weekend, he becomes my Derby pick.
greg (Fan of Damascus . . and other horses from the 60s and 70s who raced often and with great distinction)
Hi Greg,
In that gleaming era the Wood and the Blue Grass were run two weeks before the Derby and the Derby Trial a week… it was no harm for those great Horses…
Even Shug McGaughey had Easy Goer running every two-week interval from the Gotham the Wood and the Derby.
Nowadays, every one is more careful with their million-dollar horses.
If McPeek pulls this off he may be changing some modern paradigms… who knows?
Hi Nelson,
Though I rarely post, I love reading Steve’s insightful comments and the many postings (though I do like your input from gambling, pedigree and historical perspectives.)
You are right about McPeek has the opportunity to change the paradigm and narrative about what makes for the ideal Derby prepping protocol. While I wouldn’t wish Jim French’s itinerary on any horse, I used to love it when horses raced in more than one of the “big” preps.
While I agree with you about trainers wanting to protect their million-dollar horses, I also believe if a trainer follows the “accepted” path, they are aware they will less likely be second-guessed by the millionaire owners who could take their stable from any given trainer who they see as not giving their horse / investment the best chance to win the Roses.
I hope all is well with you Nelson. We still have snow on the ground here in Winnipeg though it has been finally inching above freezing.
Yet another winter when Steve guides all of us to the glorious days of spring and the First Saturday in May.
Be well my friend
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . and dreaming of CD on Derby Day)
Stay warm Greg. You should comment more often like the old days/
McPeek made huge error running SS 10 races @3.
No chance!
This has been such a weird year. I don’t think I have ever gone this close to the Derby without having at least one or two horses that I feel strongly about. Last year I was all about Essential Quality and didn’t deviate from that until he crossed the line in 4th. None of them have really stood out to me so far this year. Thankfully I have your weekly analysis, Steve, or else I would be completely clueless. I’m still fairly ambivalent, though, but I guess if my feet were held to the fire, I’d have to say I have lukewarm leanings to Epicenter, Simplification, and White Abarrio. I might change my tune depending on what Messier does in the S.A. Derby. I think your analysis in particular of both Simplification and Messier are spot on and I agree with you 100%.
I’m pretty clueless myself. Lol
Tiz the Bomb has straightened things out after his poor performance in The Holy Bull. A couple of confidence building wins at Turfway on Synthetic did the trick. People say that he has no chance in The Derby because of his 2 losses on Dirt. Maybe not. But, one of those losses was in a 5-furlong Maiden race and he’s just not a 5-furlong horse. He broke his Maiden in his very next start over a mile on dirt at Ellis Park. His loss at Gulfstream was disappointing, but, Gulfstream is not the right track for him IMO. Tiz the Bomb is one of the most experienced horses in The Derby field with 8 starts. He’s won 5 of those starts. I think that they are doing the right thing by running in The Derby. Coming off 2 straight wins. The last one better than the first. I think Tiz the Bomb has a good chance to at least hit the board and maybe even win.
I think this one has a legit shot to pull an Animal Kingdom. Certainly well bred for the distance and posted what might be the best Brisnet LP figure last out. In fact, he tops the Brisnet Pool 5 Future Wager Race Summary. The raw clock was credible too. Hernandez isn’t the first pilot that comes to mind jumping off a roses laden horse, but he’s no bum either. The horse might be a 20-1 afterthought in the Future pool and I’ll probably throw a twenty on it.
Tiz the Law AND Tawny Port’s came home nicely, at Turfway! Two Derby winners ran on synthetics in their final preps, and several more hit the board!
Mr. Haskin’s comments about Classic Causeway sum up his situation perfectly. One minute you are riding high after 2 big wins at Tampa with plans to run in The Bluegrass. Then Poof! It all goes up in smoke after deciding to change course and run at Gulfstream with only 3 weeks between starts. Brian Lynch isn’t even sure if Classic Causeway will run in The Derby now. Some people say that Classic Causeway would be a good Preakness horse. Maybe he would. But, they are in a bind. If they wait for The Preakness, the horse would be running off of a 7 week layoff. If they don’t run in The Derby, they might be better off running in The Pat Day Mile or something similar.
Hi, Steve, this continues to be my favorite time of year with you sharing your insights and expertise leading up to the Derby. Thank you, as always. What in the heck is going on with Corniche?
Thanks Tex. Corniche who?
Hi, Steve. I’m away from home on a family matter, but I do tune in sporadically. You continue to amaze with insightful and entertaining commentary. Even with just 3 final preps left to go, there’s so much still unknown. I’m sticking with Smile Happy as the top choice. But he needs to win impressively on Saturday to keep that honor. Epicenter has already done enough to be thought of as a probable Derby favorite. I consider this crop to be special even with just those two colts. But a Derby win by one of about 10 or 12 other hopefuls wouldn’t surprise me.
The unknown surrounding Epicenter is the 6 weeks from the Louisiana Derby to the Kentucky Derby. As there’s only been one similar La Derby (date and distance), history is not helpful. Epicenter had 6 weeks between his maiden win and the Gun Runner Stakes, and 5 weeks between the Risen Star and the La Derby. I lean toward the belief that he won’t lose his edge.
White Abarrio is an enticing prospect at a decent price in the Derby, but his final furlong time in the Fla Derby and his lone race away from GP (at, of all places, Churchill Downs!) give me cause for concern. I wish that Brad Cox could have had one more prep for Zozos, but the late start and the calendar prevented it. And last but not least…Simplification has a world of talent but has yet to put together back-to-back wins, not to mention that all seven of his races have been in sunny south Florida. Oops, I mentioned it. Thanks again!
[inadvertently posted on Week 11 page!]
Thank you Eddie. I have always frowned on the 6 weeks, but with the change to 1 3/16 miles who knows, and all we can go by are the big efforts last year by Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie, and to a lesser extent Midnight Bourbon. Simplification is a horse you definitely want to watch work at Churchill Downs, as is White Abarrio.
White Abarrio has Tyler Gaffalione aboard now, that’s 100% improvement on the previous jockey.
Thanks Steve, for another of your interesting Derby Ranking roundups. I can’t remember when, arguably, the three most talented Derby prospects are in such precarious positions of actually getting into the starting gate. Usually, by this time the better runners have already made certain their spot in the Derby but this year is an anomaly. If Zandon doesn’t make it in, the Preakness could be a better choice anyway.
Actually, quite a few of the Derby hopefuls look better running for the Black-eyed Susans than the roses but Derby fever will prevent any serious discussion on that matter and who can blame the connections anyway – luck is everything in racing.
Weather and post positions for the Blue Grass Stakes will be high on the agenda at Keeneland tomorrow. Good luck on both accounts. The Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial seem safe with the weather and post positions are not as important as at Keeneland.
Sad that the Derby Rankings are coming to an end once again. The preps are always the best part of the Derby with Steve Haskin steadying the ship as we traverse the highs and lows leading up to the first Saturday in May. Agree or disagree with Steve, it’s always fun – for months.
Thanks David, still another couple of weeks for the Rankings
David’s I agree with you Mo Donegal, Zandon, Smile Happy are in a tight spit, regarding Derby points, and a potential slop fest is standing in their way!
Matthew, Smile Happy wasn’t given an easy task with post 10 at Keeneland but he may have enough points to sneak in anyway. Zandon has a good post but the weather is unpredictable at Lexington. Mo Donegal has post 1 in the Wood Memorial which is not advantageous so he’ll need luck. Could be some very disappointed connections come Sunday morning.
In the Santa Anita Derby, i feel Forbidden Kingdom can hold Messier but the jockey’s tactics should be fascinating to watch. Exciting weekend coming up.
Todd Pletcher’s, My Prankster, is entered in the 7 furlong Lafayette Stakes, on Friday, April 8th, at Keeneland (7th race).
He won the 7F Swale, last out, finishing in 1:23 flat. Obviously, he’s not going to the KD, but could turn out to be one of the fastest colts, in this year’s crop. I was disappointed when PLetcher mentioned he would restrict My Prankster to sprints, or up to a mile. I’ve always been reluctant to use the term “lock”, but My Prankster appears to be close to a lock in the Lafayette. The morning line has yet to be posted, but no doubt My Prankster will be the post time favorite.
He’s certainly one to keep an eye on moving forward, this summer and fall.
Hello Steve, when Tiz the Bomb romps at $50+ you will credit a former Brooklyn Boy with telling you that you overlooked the Rasmussen Factor or at least a modified version on his Dam’s Side !!
My pedigree reviews were of horses that I had ranked, which he was not at the time. And a modified version of the RF is like being partially pregnant. After 5 generations there is no longer an RF. Sorry no credit for you, Brooklyn or no Brooklyn
Even the “Curse of Apollo” was overcome!
Looking for a Versailles Road Long Shot
With all the media rattling about Classic Causeway and the Tampa Bay Derby of late… Grantham’s odds should figure Hong Kong Long in all pools Bluegrass. As his pilot’s skills will work to the contrary of those expectations I will seek wagering positions on the lower limbs of his betting tree.
Grantham is a much better horse than most will figure for the distance required at CD.
Over the years I’ve watched a few old timers cash big tickets and asked them how they did it. “I’ve learned to play the top Jocks” was their response. To that end… at Keeneland such distinctions are more difficult but Saez and Kentucky Derby talent have joined together in the past. If only for one or two prep races.
Mr. Haskin, I really appreciate how you include the Thoro-Graph figures along with Beyers into the Derby Rankings from time to time. Especially the TG #’s since they take into account various trips a horse runs. I’d be interested to see from anyone on this site, if doable, a stat that has the top figures between TG and Beyer, going into the 1st Saturday say for the last 5-10 Derbies that have ran and the referenced winners. Thanks also for providing commentary on a how horse looks, runs or behaves in their works. I believe this is an analysis that few can actually judge.
Hi Steve
Your take on Simplification is spot on. After setting off the pace, in the FOY, and then making a closing move approaching the far turn to win by 3 1/2 lengths, why revert back to a front running style in the Florida Derby? Possibly, Sano did this for a reason. Just maybe he wanted to build more stamina into his colt, and see how far his tactical speed would hold up going 9 furlongs for the first time. It is clearly evident that Ortiz didn’t get into him when he started to tire in the late going, and was satisfiied to finish 3rd. I suspect Sano will instruct Ortiz to lay mid-pack in the KD, and make his move approaching the far turn, as he did in the FOY.
Simplification and Epicenter are closely related, (same sire, same broodmare sire) the only difference is their dams, and obviously their tail-female side. I’m certainly no pedigree expert, but it appears to me Simplifiation’s stamina influence on his tail-female is all dirt, versus Epicenter’s stamina influence on his tail-female side is mainly turf.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying Epicenter should not be listed at #1 on your current rankings, he deserves that placement.
However, I’ve been on the Simplification bandwagon since his MMM Stakes win, and will remain aboard as he enters the Kentucky Derby starting gate. I’ll be holding my two $100.00 win wagers on him, one at 65-1 and the other at 43-1.
In addition, I’ll be holding my exacta wager, boxing Simplification with the entire Pool 2 field.
BTW, it was good to see Simplification change to the correct lead, during the stretch run. Hopefully, he will do the same in the Derby.
Thanks for all the hard work you put forth week after week. It is much appreaciated by all your loyal followers.
Thanks Bill, good take. I can tell you that you can expect Simplification to wind up higher in the Rankings after the smoke clears this weekend. As I said, if I had to bet one horse at overlay odds it is him so dont lose your tickets. Whatever Sano was thinking he is a very good trainer and I trust him and Ortiz to have the horse in a good position.
Love a horse who battles on the lead through solid fractions and stays on valiantly to the wire as Simplification did. But they came home too slow through the last two calls.
I still have to wonder if those fractions are legit knowing Gufstream’s past record on bad timing. You’ll also have to throw out White Abarrio and Charge It. Are all three that slow? If you question the fractions this is the time to get down in the Future Wager
ECHO! Thanks for all the hard work, Steve. I appreciate the great reading material on the Derby every week leading up to the big day.
I still think Epicenter is #1 due to his versatility and ability to get the win
however it plays out. This coming Saturday if Messier or Forbidden Kingdom
absolutely run away with it, that #1 spot could change. Ditto, Smile Happy, who I have
also liked for a while. I still like White Abarrio but I get why people think he does
not have the ability to win it. I think he could at least hit the board. So, I have in the following order:
Epicenter
Forbidden Kingdom
Messier
Smile Happy
Morello
Cyberknife
White Abarrio
Hi Paula. I got four of your top horses in my current personal ranking:
MESSIER
Epicenter
Zandon
Smile Happy
Early Voting
White Abarrio
Charge It
I am with you about White Abarrio primed to do well in the Derby … as a Florida Derby winner he should get some respect on Derby day.
Paula, don’t worry about White Albarrio, his mind and temperament will enable him to cope with 10f. and he’s very agile, nimble. A good post in the Derby will set him up very nicely and Tyler Gaffalione suits him well.
I am a staunch fan of Messier and after watching all the other Derby hopefuls this year I am convinced that he is the best 3-year-old in America.
Messier is my Derby horse. There is a myriad of reasons to love this horse and mentioning them would make me a broken record…
At this stage I feel like Messier can be only beaten by injuries or bad racing luck. That is why we rely on Steve’s ranking to procure credible betting alternatives (mainly for the exotics).
Epicenter is a worthy Derby contender with great connections. The fast son of Not this Time is providing Steve Asmussen with his best chance to win his first Derby since Curlin and Gun Runner.
Messier and Epicenter will be well deserved Derby favorites. But how about those longshots who could make a Hi5 pay for your retirement…
As I read the ranking I find comments that reverberate in my head as if they were illuminating findings.
The comments about Zozos and Pioneer of Medina made me suspect that these second-tier horses of premier Trainers could be, with a bit of luck, prevailing over their barn mates if they make it to the Derby.
It takes a very good horse to finish second to Epicenter after withstanding a tough pressure from Pioneer of Medina. Zozos has indeed outrun his pedigree by passing the 1 3/16 mile test with a strong finish in only his third start. No one would be surprised if the son of Munnings improves in form in the Derby five weeks after a promising Stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby.
Zozos pedigree is very intriguing as well. Yes, Munnings was a Sprinter by champion sprinter Speightstown but the latter sired Golden Ticket and Haynesfield who are Grade 1 winners at 10 furlongs.
Munnings himself is the Sire of I’m a Chatterbox winner of the Delaware Handicap (10 furlongs) and Bonny South second to Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama Stakes (10 furlongs).
Big Spruce is an undeniable source of stamina. Only great stayers are able to win twice the 13 furlongs of the Gallant Fox Handicap and I hope that some of tthis endurance trickles into Zozos’ form.
In Zozos’ family you can also see Forestry who is the Broodmare sire of Derby champion Nyquist and Dixieland Band the Broodmare sire of two Derby winners (Monarchos and Street Sense) and of runner-up Eight Belles.
I can’t wait to see how Zozos looks on Churchill grounds… the same way he has already overrun his pedigree he could also outperform his 40 to 1 odds for a good placing in the Derby.
Steve, for once I almost totally agree with you. I’ll just make 2 more points. I am almost certain that the connections of Simplification were sorry that he wasn’t rated in the Florida Derby and they’ll probably elect a change of tactics in Kentucky. He’s going to be a forgotten horse. Messier’s workout 2 weeks ago was the most impressive piece of work since Barbaro’s last workout prior to the Derby.. I’m surprised you didn’t mention it. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t run well at SA
I didnt mention his work because I had so much more to say about him and were going to know soon about him. I’ve loved all his works. This wasnt going to make me like him any more than I already do.
Bob Baffert’s attorneys appear to be pulling the plug on their fight with Churchill Downs. The story I saw is a little confusing, but they’ve asked a federal court in Kentucky to allow them to withdraw their request for a preliminary injunction against the 2-year ban on Baffert horses entering the Derby.
I hope they can make peace. It would be great for Churchill Downs to acknowledge that Baffert has been punished enough.
This is actually my first time reading bloodhorse derby dozen this season and then I read yours. I really like your analysis and honesty. I sometimes go with my heart instead of my head and I appreciate that you bring the logic back. I’m really intrigued with Epicenter and Forbidden Kingdom but to be honest I see chinks in the armor of most this year’s contenders.
It will be interesting to see what shakes out this weekend. I’m really hoping that you have at least one more Derby Dozen before the Derby after this weekends races.
Thank you Laurie. I will have a couple more Rankings before the Derby.
Messier and Epicenter are still the only ones that have topped the 100 BSF mark. Epicenter seems legit. We’ll see on Saturday if Messier can prove that his 103 BSF wasn’t a fluke. I remember thinking at the time: Where did that race come from? Let’s not forget that he was beaten by Slow Down Andy at Los Alamitos. After reading Steve Haskin’s comments, Simplification is the one that I most like out of Florida. Still looking for that one horse to “key” in The Derby. After The Derby, we could all be saying: Why didn’t we just take the 9-2 on Epicenter? But, as good as Epicenter looks, he’s taking 6 weeks off between starts. I’m old and an old school kind of guy. I prefer to see my Derby horse running off only 4-5 weeks. Frankly, in certain situations, I’d even prefer to see him come out of The Lexington with only 3 weeks until The Derby. All of that being said, I have confidence that Steve Asmussen can pull it off if anybody can. I just have to bet against it.
I have always dismissed the La. Derby horses because of the 6 weeks, .but had a change of heart last year when they changed the distance to 1 3/16 miles. The it didnt bother me as much because of the extra distance. Then the race produced Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie so I’m not bothered as much .
Steve,
Do you know what Epicenter’s thorograph was in the Louisiana Derby?
102
Sorry. That was his BSF.
Hopefully I’ll get it tomorrow. Its usually out on Wednesday, sometimes Thursday.
Steve Haskin mentions the “timing” problems at Gulfstream. These problems have been going on for quite some time and it’s hard for handicappers to trust the times and speed figures there. I read last week that Gulfstream will be replacing their turf course and “timing system” which is great and long over-due. But, if you know you have a problem and have had that problem more than once, why not hand-time every race as a backup? Maybe they do. IDK. Times and fractional times are important to handicappers.
+1 on the importance of timing and fractions. That’s what I go by. Relative to 23 > 47 > 1:11 > 1:35. I want to see those 24 second splits.
Steve,
I read where it has been reported that Un Ojo suffered his cuts after being forced into the rail twice by Jose Ortiz and Barber Road on the backstretch. Watching the race it is noted that Un Ojo is actually making a run and had moved steadily up to 4th when Barber Road squeezes through on his outside. Immediately after Un Ojo suddenly retreats. Appparently this is best seen on a head on view which I could not locate. Some of those who saw it were calling for Barber Road to be DQ’ed. Excellent and insightful rankings,as usual, I look forward to Tuesday mornings.
Yes Patty… you are right about Un Ojo being eliminated by the careless ride of Reylu Gutierrez with Barber Road. One could see that Un Ojo was in real contention in the last turn and was suddenly stopped by that shocking double slam from his right…
Considering that Un Ojo has no left eye it is understandable he was really scared about being banged against the rail…the son of Laoban could have finished closer or even beaten Barber Road for second…
Anyways, Un Ojo will be completely forgotten in the Derby but is a good proposition for the exotics thanks to the closing power he showed in the Rebel Stakes…
Update with more details from trainer and jockey about details of squeeze now on Bloodhorse. Saying the run of Cyberknife caused the chain reaction.Just FYI though about his tough luck performance.
Thanks Patty, I will watch the race again. I was away all weekend and watched the races on my wife’s Ipad on Racereplays.com after the races were over..
I don’t think Cyberknife was involved in the incident against Un Ojo… Cyberknife was 3 or 4 lengths in front of the bumping pair of Barber Road and Un Ojo.
Cyberlink did change lane abruptly but it was in the last 30 yards…
The real culprit was Florent Geroux on Cyberknife. How does that not surprise?
Jose Ortiz was riding at Gulfstream Park on Simplification. Lol.
Yes, I had a mistaken source on that thanks Nelson for already correcting that.
Also the statement about Cyberknife being involved in Un Ojo blasting is not right. If you watch the race you can see that Cyberlink was already taking the lead 4 L ahead of Un Ojo when he stopped abruptly… there was no chain reaction caused by Florent Geroux whatsoever from my assessment of the replay.
Can’t say I saw it either but referencing report in Bloodhorse from UnOjo jock and trainer. Bottom line just saying that UnOjo wasn’t as disappointing as he appeared though a Derby Run, in my opinion, would be more sentimental than realistic.
Hey Steve:
So nice to have the new rankings to brighten up my morning after the heart-wrenching defeat of my alma mater, UNC, at the hands of Kansas last night. Your analysis this week rather brilliantly makes sense of what we all saw unfold in the three preps over the weekend. (Try watching three Derby preps at the same time as a Final Four game — it’ll drive you crazy!) Of course, all we really know is that Epicenter is a solid pick as No. 1, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll win the Derby. I still have faith in Simplification, who didn’t have to win Saturday to get into the race. It is now or never for Zandon and Emmanuel, however. And Morello will either prove he’s as good as you think Saturday, or be revealed as a one-turn horse.
Thank you. Sorry about UNC but they blew it. They had that game won. You read what I think of Simplification. Right now he is my win bet at a pretty decent price. We will find out about Morello
I really like your top 5 Steve . Saturday is a big day for Zandon. He needs to either upset Smile Happy for the win or run a strong second to give the confidence and momentum going into the KY Derby to be considered a serious win candidate. Fingers crossed on Zandon who I bet at 56-1 in KDFW1 and also boxed him with the field. Tiz the Bomb coukd be the X factor in the Derby. I bet him in KDFW2 and glad they are running him. As you mentioned, Paddy O’Prado and Dullahan ran well in the KY Derby and both were labeled as turf horses. Tiz possesses tactical speed to sit a good trip and he seems to have a good turn of foot that could get him a big piece on Derby day at double digit odds. Tiz is an acknowledged long shot for sure, however it’s Zandon who I will be rooting for strongly this Saturday.
If he wins, he is special. And he could very well be. He sure looked special last year and I thought he ran great in the Risen Star.
Oaklawn had a big crowd the other day….Cyberknife made a move into a tiny seam, into a fast pace—and held sway and that was start #2 after removing the blinkers….I like a big sized horse gping 10 panels, smaller horses have won but not that many.
Regarding Tiz A Bomb
History says turf horse run well at CD in the Derby.
Book 5 future 12-1 a bit low.
As always good stuff Steve.
Thanks Johnny. Tiz the Bomb could run big in the Derby, but its still a guess. I remember Paddy o’ Prado and Dullahan running third for Romans.
Animal Kingdom and Street Sense final preps synthetic…..
I like Turfway horses, It’s just an opinion, but I think that track gets horses FIT!
Street Sense was 2yo champion and loved the dirt so I dont count him He actually got beat on the synthetic
I think Barber Road is better than folks are giving him credit. He has raced in the whole ARK PREPS and hasn’t regressed. He is tough and he’s not afraid of going thru a tight hole. I think he had plenty of energy and believe the added distance will be to his liking. I look thru everyone’s rankings and it kind of blows my mind that so many horses based on a 2 yrold campaign maintain such high status when we all know that 75Percent of top 2yr olds never jump forward in their 3 yrold campaign. Here is a colt that has run in some of the toughest and largest derby preps and is always on the board. We also know that the DERBY WINNER usually has been 1st or 2nd in the last big prep, yet he really is being overlooked – I don’t get it. I’ll watch with interest next week but as of right now I’ll take the odds on BARBER ROAD all day long . A true fighter over horses being overly protected .
I also forget to add that CHARGE IT came running as well and i love his upside. I am not much if a better but A BARBER ROAD – CHARGE IT exacta box would not be a far stretch and could pay handsome. lol
To address your points, it all depends what you think of the Oaklawn 3-year-olds. He’s been second to Dash Attack, Newgrange, Un Ojo, and Cyberknife. All depends on what you think of them. As I said I believe he’s going to be very popular and you cant throw him out of the exotics, but he still has to prove he can win, and against far better horses than he’s been facing.
As for the Derby winner being 1st or 2nd in their last start they are also first or second at the quarter pole in the Derby. I doubt he’ll be anywhere near that close. The Rankings are based a lot on the competition and I’m just not sure how good the Oaklawn horses are. If there is a pace meltdown in the Derby, which is possible, he certainly would have a shot to win. But right now I look at him as more of an exotics play. If there is enough speed in the Derby I could change my mind. I’m waiting on his Thoro-Graph numbers.
As for the 2-year-olds, both Smile Happy and Zandon had big 3-year-old debuts against a loose on the lead Epicenter. When you latch on to horses early its hard to give up on them unless they give you reason to.
For me i dont look at who they have beat or not beat. I look at progression and he has progressed. We also have to look at foundation going into the DERBY. Both ZANDON and SMILE HAPPY haveto put in peak performances just to get qualified. Does that leave them gutted before the DERBY? Pretty difficult to peak two times if you have are forced to give it all just to make it into the field. My feeling is one will be left out and the other wont be able to refuel the tank quick enough to win the derby.
Smile Happy has 30 Points already. He is in. Just a good tune up before KY Derby.
Smile Happy is sitting 17th and is not a lock to make the derby just yet. Anything can happen as we just saw in ARK PERFECT EXAMPLE – Messier could win now he has points and drops SH TO 18 Someone comes out of the blue and wins the blue grass and ZANDON gets second and smile happy is off the board. Then you have the wood MEMORIAL which is wide open and two more horse get in. So don’t ever say he’s in until he actually is.
Zandon has 14 points. Likely a 4th Place Finish qualifies him. Almost a certainty Smile and Zandon make the field May 7 with or without peak performances.
If they cant finish in the money they dont belong in the Derby so I dont worry about points unless they get stopped and lose all chance
The 14 sec. last fraction for White Abarrio could be wrong. GP admitted having trouble timing races, specifically certain fractions, on Saturday. Hand timing several times I got around 13.35.
I addressed the possibility of a screwup. What is it with Gulfstream and timing. Its a disgrace. I still want to see a faster final eighth than almost :13 2/5, thats still pretty slow, but at least it isnt horrible.
You did mention it, sorry. Agree his time is still slow but not horrible, although he was well ahead and seemed to quicken when Charge It approached. He seems as tractable as they come.
I dont think he quickened as much as Charge It started lugging and lost all momentum
Steve, of the Ky derby preps so far which horse had the fastest last eighth? Just curious.
I dont know about eight but With Epicenter closing the 3/16 in :18 1/5 I’m sure its him.
Thank you. That would seem to be right on.
is that 2nd place Tawny Port horse in the field also?
Not sure if theyre looking to put him on dirt. Owner ran 2nd in the Derby back in 2001 with Invisible Ink.
Tawny Port might be considered to be Invisible Ink if you drink it all. Hehe.
Looks like a good chance for a sloppy track at Keeneland Saturday. Even possible snow in the forecast. Right now about 50% chance Friday and Saturday so you never know. New York should be OK. Partly cloudy Saturday about 20% chance of precip.
Wouldn’t that be great, Zandon and Smile Happy eliminated by weather. Strangely, neither were also nominated for the Wood Memorial. Fingers crossed the weather isn’t too horrendous.
My rankings start with the first of the final preps, the Louisiana Derby. And no horse that ran this weekend jumped Epicenter for #1 in my opinion.
I did like Tiz the Bomb’s effort enough to put him #2, not considering whether he can run on dirt or not.
I haven’t been impressed by anyone else’s final prep so far these last two weekends.
I rewatched the Jeff Ruby moments ago. While I didn’t get the goosebumps I got when rewatching Animal Kingdom’s Spiral a few times before the KY derby I think TTB is going to be right there in the mix at the top of the stretch. Unless of course his hoof stamp has worn off and the bouncers won’t let him in.
Lol, love the hoof stamp line. Going by the race fractions, I think the Jeff Ruby was a good/strong race. I would expect around 8-1 in the derby.
I would think 8-1 would be about right, but it may be as high as 10-1 or so. TTB may get a few dollars from my venmo.
I think you’re both going to be pleasantly surprized!
Steve Haskin –
Thank you for the Rankings Week 12 analysis. So far, it looks like a wide-open Kentucky Derby field with no real, mind-blowing standouts. No Graustarks, Secretariats, or Seattle Slews. Nothing wrong with that. So, any number of horses can win this year. It will probably come down to track conditions, post position, and who gets the trip (Lady Luck).
Hope you are able to sort through all of this. You’ll have four weeks. Good Luck.
7.5 Furlongs