Derby Rankings: Week 12
The big weekend of final preps that was supposed to clear up the Derby picture hardly accomplished that as we lost several of the old faces and added several new ones, including a megabomb that no one saw coming. So, now with only four weeks to the Derby here is the roster that has been assembled…with even more question marks. As you will see, I am not taking the conventional path when it comes to who reigns atop the Rankings. This is not the year to be boring. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 12, Apr. 5
By Steve Haskin
1. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
In the 22 years I’ve been doing Derby Dozen and Derby Rankings I have never had a tougher time deciding who to put No. 1. It all comes down to this: Essential Quality is an undefeated champion who is the most logical No. 1. Known Agenda has already had the top spot and is a horse I have been high on from day one. But despite having only three career starts, Rock Your World is the one horse who possesses freakish qualities you rarely see. I am looking at him as a horse who has had more than three starts because I have never seen a horse gallop out after a race the way he does and comes back as if he wants to go around again. He possesses a remarkable engine with numerous gears. In the Santa Anita Derby he used one gear to run his opponents off their feet early, another to quickly separate himself from the stalking Medina Spirit and Parnelli on the turn, and several more in the stretch as he kept changing leads and surging forward each time. After setting a wicked pace, he seemed to get stronger the farther he went, running through the wire and opening up at least 15 lengths on the gallop-out. After returning, jockey Umberto Rispoli had to tug hard on the reins to get him to pull up. And he still is raw, as he demonstrated when he needed Rispoli to help him change leads, and then when the rider hit him right-handed and looked back over his shoulder, he jumped back to his left lead and surged again as he did in the Pasadena. It’s as if he uses lead changes to find another gear. This horse is just different, which is why I have had him ranked so high off two starts and never having run on dirt. Physically, he is a beast and he’s doing things ordinary horses just don’t do. As I concluded in last week’s comment, “He could be special and we very well may be seeing a huge breakout performance on Saturday.” That we did. And for those who follow it, he is now the only one among the Derby hopefuls to earn a 100 Beyer this year.
2. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
It was tough dropping him to No. 2, but it’s almost a dead-heat. When a horse has been running Thoro-Graph numbers of “11” and makes a giant leap to a “3 1/2″ there are several factors to consider. In this case, making such a dramatic improvement you have to ask, was it due to the addition of blinkers? Was it due to the addition of Lasix? Will he regress coming off Lasix in his first Grade 1 stakes? Will he simply “bounce” off a figure that he’s never come close to running before? Well, all those questions became moot when he not only didn’t regress he took another jump forward running a “1 1/2.” So now we know this horse is on a strong upward trend. As for his pedigree, in this day and age where speed rules, he is a rarity with points in both the stamina categories of his Dosage Profile. His granddam comes from one of the strongest European sires lines of modern times, from her sire Darshaan, who won the French Derby and was a champion sire and broodmare sire in three countries to Darshaan’s sire Shirley Heights, who the English and Irish Derby and sired a French Derby winner and English Derby winner in back-to-back years to Shirley Heights’ sire, the legendary Mill Reef, winner of the English Derby, King George, and Arc de Triomphe, whose record of six consecutive Group 1 victories stood for 30 years and who sired eight classic winners and a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner. Known Agenda also is inbred to the English Derby winner Sir Ivor, and his tail-female family traces to Nijinsky II, the last horse to sweep the English Triple Crown. With Curlin on top the mile and a quarter should be a piece of cake. Think of him as Antares, one of the four white Arabians in the movie Ben Hur. The sheikh who owns him acknowledges he’s not as fast as the other three, but “he will run all day without tiring.” It is time for a resurgence of stamina on the first Saturday in May and this is the guy to do it.
3. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
I am fully aware it is sacrilegious to have him ranked No. 3, especially considering he is an undefeated champion and his Blue Grass victory was exactly the prep he needed for the Kentucky Derby, where he no doubt will be favored unless Concert Tour does something exceptional in the Arkansas Derby. With only one easy victory in the slop in five months he needed to have a tough race, and what made this a perfect prep is that he fought hard to beat a very good horse by a neck and most important there was a 5 1/2-length gap back to the third horse. His closing fractions of :23 4/5, :23 4/5, and :12 2/5, with a final three-eighths in :36 1/5 were very strong. The bottom line is that he is the logical and deserving Derby favorite, but this just isn’t the year I want to put a favorite on top, so I am just looking to latch onto something special and stand by my early convictions regarding the merits of the Top 2 horses. Essential Quality is still the only 3-year-old to run a negative Thoro-Graph number and I would expect to see another fast number in the Blue Grass. And as I have been mentioning all year, he has proven to be a horse you can put anywhere depending on the pace, whether on the lead, stalking the pace, or six or seven lengths back. In short you cannot plan strategy against him. But it has to be mentioned that no Blue Grass winner has won the Derby in 30 years.
4. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit)
Judging from the prospective field for the Arkansas Derby he should be another going into the Kentucky Derby undefeated. He does need to continue to move forward and improve his Thoro-Graph numbers, but I doubt there is anyone who believes that won’t happen. He definitely is still a work in progress. He turned in another strong work, going six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 in the fog and working alone. He had his ears up the entire length of the stretch with the rider way up in the saddle and really poured it on after the wire, putting his ears back and picking up the pace. Baffert has always been very high on this colt and we will see how he adapts if they change tactics with the speedy Caddo River and let him roll this time. This not a horse who needs the lead and I am looking forward to seeing how he runs sitting off the pace, just as I was when American Pharoah ran in the Arkansas Derby and showed he was capable of winning that way. This is not the Derby you want a one-dimensional horse with so many tactical speed horses in there. After next week everything will be sorted out and we should have a better idea where all these horses should be ranked.
5. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
Yes, he’s down to No. 5 for now, but we’re talking five-horse photo and he is still the horse I will be betting, but now as an overlay instead of a favorite. I just can’t rank him above the top 4. What I don’t understand is all the panicking over one defeat. Horses have bad days for various reasons. I mentioned last week he had run at least one race in every month since September, including a mile and eighth race last fall over a deep tiring track, and this year ran too fast, too good, too early. There was no way he could keep moving forward every race after the Holy Bull. If you believe in blessings in disguise, consider this: if he had won the Florida Derby he would have gone into the Kentucky Derby off three consecutive two-turn graded stakes victories on dirt as a 3-year-old. The last time a horse did that and won the Derby was 42 years ago and his name was Spectacular Bid. Heck, four of the last five Triple Crown winners didn’t do it. Do you know how many horses have swept the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth, and Florida Derby? That’s correct, none. I think we need to take a deep breath and give this horse a break. I am not saying he is going to win the Kentucky Derby and I’m not saying he isn’t regressing, but losing the Florida Derby with a poor ride is not a reason to dismiss him. Does anyone remember when Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby winner Thunder Gulch finished a dull fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes as the 6-5 favorite? He also was dismissed and the result was a $51 payoff at Churchill Downs on a horse who was the Derby favorite one race earlier. As Aaron Rodgers spelled out a few years ago after the Green Bay Packers lost several games: “R-E-L-A-X.” There is a reason he was ranked No. 1 for eight straight weeks and if you liked him before you’re going to feel awful foolish if he wins the Derby at a big price and you went off him.
6. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
I’m still not positive a mile and quarter will be his strength, but he ran a sensational race in the Blue Grass Stakes in his two-turn debut, setting all the pace and holding on doggedly to make Essential Quality work like he’s never had to work before. But this was a wacky race with the first three-quarters run in 1:12 and the deep closers Rombauer and Keepmeinmind running third and fourth only two lengths off the lead. But when the pace quickened, he and Essential Quality left the others far behind. It looked like only a question of how far Essential Quality would win by as they hit the top of the stretch. But Highly Motivated wouldn’t quit. He kept battling back and switched back to his left lead at the sixteenth pole, just falling a neck short. It might have been different if he didn’t drift out from left-handed whipping forcing Essential Quality out. Instead of being inches apart with Essential Quality unable to get by him, they were now several paths apart with Essential Quality no longer having to look him in the eye. With Highly Motivated now on his wrong lead he just failed to hold off the champ, who got his neck in front right before the wire. He is another horse who I believe doesn’t need the lead, but coming off one-turn races and with no pace at all it was the right move.
7. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Ind1an Miss, by Indian Charlie)
He breezed a half in :49 2/5, staying busy before the serious training begins. Does anyone else feel as if the Louisiana Derby was a long time ago? It’s pretty amazing how many horses who really aren’t need-the-lead types have set the pace in Derby preps, including him, Rock Your World, Concert Tour, Highly Motivated, Medina Spirit, Soup and Sandwich, and Midnight Bourbon. Who knows who is going to set the pace in the Derby? Maybe UAE Derby runner-up Panadol. This colt has proven his versatility and was 94-1 when he came from seventh and put quite a scare in Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has proven that was no fluke, and like Essential Quality he can beat you from anywhere on the track. And his trainer has proven on more than one occasion he knows how to win the Kentucky Derby. Whether he is a true mile and a quarter horse we won’t know until the first Saturday in May, something I guess you can say about a lot of them. But he gives 100 percent every time and you know you’re in a race when you go up against him.
8. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch to Moon, by Malibu Moon)
He had his first work over the Churchill Downs track, breezing five furlongs in a sharp 1:01 1/5. Of the possible Derby pacesetters mentioned above, who is the one most likely to be ignored and left alone on an easy lead? It would have to be him, as his wire-to-wire victory in the LeComte Stakes has been long forgotten by most people and in his last two starts racing just off the pace he didn’t have the closing kick to get the job done. So in my opinion there is little strategy to discuss. You have to go for the lead either at the start and lull them to sleep or get the lead fairly early in the race. I have seen so many horses who cannot catch anyone in the stretch, but are hard to pass once on the lead. He is maturing physically, and being by Tiznow, his most powerful weapon appears to be tenacity and the ability to not let horses get by him in the stretch. One thing is for sure, he will be forgotten at the windows and will be a huge price for a horse who knows how to battle and has never finished out of the money in seven starts, five of them in graded stakes. He’s just a good horse to keep in the back of your mind on Derby Day.
9. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher, Unon Rags – Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
You can bet he’s going to get a faster Thoro-Graph number than the winner in the Wood Memorial, which he appeared to have won, but just got nipped on the wire after losing a lot of ground on the first turn and racing wide throughout. According to Trakus, he ran 43 feet farther than the winner, indicating that with a ground-saving trip he would have won by many lengths. He still showed a good turn of foot sweeping by horses on the far turn to reach contention. He kept on determinedly, but all that ground loss eventually took its toll. And it didn’t help that the track was so ridiculously slow. That takes a lot out of a horse, which is why I believe several of the favorites ran poorly. It is not an ideal way to prep for the Derby and can very well dull a horse. Aqueduct in early April often is slow, but not this slow. As for Dynamic One, I fell in love with him off a fourth in a maiden race, in which he had a horrendous trip but showed me all the signs of a top-class horse. I was just waiting for him to get that maiden win out of the way, which he did on a similar slow track, and I felt he had a big shot to move forward several lengths in the Wood. He has a tremendous pedigree, but it’s just a question of whether he is fast enough now to win the Derby. He surely has the bottom under him and is dead fit. He may be more of a Belmont or even Travers horse, but I still feel with a good trip he can make his presence felt in the Derby.
10. Soup and Sandwich (Casse, Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit)
He is yet another work in progress and another Into Mischief. His sons are running amok on the Derby trail and you just never know how far they want to go. Like several of the lightly raced horses this year he is doing things he shouldn’t be doing for a green horse who hasn’t figured it out yet. He showed that with his powerful runner-up effort in the Florida Derby coming off two races in which he made enough mistakes to last an entire career. But Casse got him to run much more professionally and he was able to carry his speed farther than one might have thought at that point in his career. The Derby might be a race or two too early for him, but he has to be respected. I believe once he becomes more polished we will see a very good horse who will win his share of stakes. His owner Charlotte Weber is old school and a true sportswoman and next year it will be 40 years since she finished second in the Derby with longshot Laser Light.
11. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Bernardini – Dancing Afleet, by Afleet Alex)
So he was coming off of Lasix, and coming off a $50,000 claiming race and a starter allowance optional claimer for horses who had run in a claiming race and he wins the Wood Memorial at 72-1 coming from far back with an powerful stretch run after trailing the field until inside the three-sixteenths pole. Does that sound like a Todd Pletcher-trained horse to you? I believe part of it is that many of the leading contenders were spinning their wheels on that deep track and never fired, resulting in a :39 1/5 final three-eighths, the slowest mile and an eighth stakes on the card, which earned him a slow 89 Beyer speed figure. But to his credit he did come home his final three-eighths in a respectable :37 1/5. Don’t ask me what to make of this horse or this race, but one thing is certain and that is he has an amazing pedigree with a ton of class and stamina, and his sire and broodmare sire are remembered for scoring two of the most impressive Preakness victories we’ve seen in a long time. He also has improved dramatically with blinkers. Who knows, maybe he was just treading water until he was able to stretch out to a mile and an eighth. If that is the case, what is going to happen when he stretches out to a mile and a quarter? We can just envision the list of Derby winners that bore the name of Calumet Farm: Citation, Whirlaway, Iron Liege, Tim Tam, Bourbonic.
12. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
He is certainly consistent and he has been running in top company all year, but he has yet to show he has enough weapons to win the Kentucky Derby. He has excellent tactical speed but not much of a closing punch, so I’m not sure what tactics he would use. But he has earned his way into the big race and deserves a shot at it, especially considering he has never finished out of the money and has proven he is a fighter on the lead. He was always in perfect position in the Santa Anita Derby, stalking a fast pace set by Rock Your World, but when the winner accelerated on the far turn he could not match strides with him, and like in the San Felipe he got the best of Dream Shake in the final furlong for second. Look, there is nothing wrong with running hard in big stakes and picking up a check each time. His victories will come; it just doesn’t have to be in the Kentucky Derby.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Getting back to ROCK YOUR WORLD, it has to be mentioned that his was bred by Ron and Debbie McAnally. Here is a Hall of Fame trainer who had the legendary John Henry 40 years ago and is approaching his 90th birthday with a leading Kentucky Derby contender that he bred thanks to his breeding right to the brilliant Candy Ride, who he saddled to a track record-breaking performance in the Pacific Classic. “This is so incredible to be able to breed a horse like this,” Debbie said. “But all the credit goes to my man. He picks out all the matings.” They knew this colt could be special before they sold him because he was such an imposing individual whose measurements revealed an outstanding physical specimen, as we saw on Saturday. “Even at age 89, Ron is out at the track every morning unless I’m able to lasso him in,” Debbie continued. “But it’s in his blood and keeps him young. This is all about hopes and dreams and we certainly have both.”
One other statistic regarding the Santa Anita Derby: Rock Your World set fractions of :22 3/5, :46, 1:10 3/5, and 1:36 1/5. By comparison the fractions of the Santa Anita Oaks run earlier were :24 1/5, :49 1:13, and 1:38. That those fractions took nothing out of him and he galloped out in another area code tells you all you need to know about this colt.
HELIUM – Can we call him 13A as part of the Derby Baker’s Dozen? He belongs with the others mentioned in the last five spots, but I have been saying for a while he has so much history to overcome with the eight-week layoff, having only one start at 3, and never having run farther than 1 1/16 miles He will be attempting something that has not been accomplished in over 100 years. But I do have to say I love his works, especially his most recent five-furlong drill in 1:01 2/5 at Palm Meadows in which he was strong from the beginning. He runs hard and always seems very determined, which no doubt helped him battle back in the stretch to win the Tampa Bay Derby going away. We’ll keep monitoring his works closely and leave it up to Mark Casse to figure out a way to pull this off.
MANDALOUN – Despite his dull effort in the Louisiana Derby, he is at Churchill Downs and worked a half in :49 4/5 for the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Brad Cox could offer no excuse at Fair Grounds saying he simply ran out of gas. After talking it over with the Juddmonte brass they are going to throw the race out and if he continues to train well he will run in the Derby. They have always been very high on this colt, which makes his performance even more puzzling. Might as well give him another shot with six weeks to regroup.
CADDO RIVER – While on the subject of throwing a race out, Brad Cox will also be doing it for Caddo River after his disappointing effort in the Rebel Stakes when he wasn’t asked to challenge Concert Tour for the early lead and fought his rider, eventually fading out of contention. He will get another chance in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby and certainly is still sharp, working five furlongs in company in 1:00 1/5, galloping out six furlongs in 1:13 2/5. Expect different tactics this time.
PROXY – Mike Stidham said he’s been a puzzle and he had to make a positive visual move forward to continue on to Kentucky, which he didn’t. So his inclination was to not run in the Derby. Although his Ragozin and Thoro-Graph numbers were career bests and he is progressing in his overall development, Stidham doesn’t want to force him into the Derby. He did turn in a swift half-mile work in a bullet :46 4/5, fastest of 64 works at the distance. He probably will need points if they do want to give him a shot, so watch for him to show up in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes, which would also give him one last shot to get his act together and stop lugging out in the stretch every race.
O BESOS – He looks to have little chance of getting in with 25 points. Although there is still the Lexington Stakes with enough points to possibly get him in the Derby, they have decided to sit pat, with the worst case scenario being a start in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day as one of the favorites. Greg Foley and his son and assistant Travis were thrilled with his performance in the Louisiana Derby, where he got the fastest Thoro-Graph number in the race, a “2 3/4.” They realize he is still immature physically and growing and improving every day. He certainly belongs in the Derby off that performance, which came up a head short of putting him in the starting gate. But it’s a long year and he has a bright future.
Four horses definitely in the Derby if their connections wish to go are REBEL’S ROMANCE and PANADOL, one-two in the UAE Derby, and LIKE THE KING and SAINTHOOD, one-two in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Panadol, who was a late Triple Crown nominee, would be the natural pacesetter.
HIDDEN STASH with 32 points continues to run well, but not quite well enough, and the same can be said of ROMBAUER with 34 points, although it was a surprise to see him so close to the lead in the Blue Grass. It was no surprise to see a brilliant but lightly raced and untested PREVALENCE struggle on that deep track in the Wood. He will move on to bigger and better things. But there seemed to be no excuse for RISK TAKING, who was never in the race. CROWDED TRADE and WEYBURN ran OK, but below expectations. Crowded Trade had every chance in the stretch, but couldn’t sustain his run. In California, DREAM SHAKE picked up another piece of the purse, but doesn’t seem quite ready to move forward in the Derby.
In addition to Concert Tour and Caddo River, the Arkansas Derby will have Rebel runner-up HOZIER along with other California invaders GET HER NUMBER and possibly ROMAN CENTURIAN, who scratched from the Santa Anita Derby. Also expected are SUPER STOCK and the Dallas Stewart-trained LAST SAMURAI, who is taking a wild shot to try to get a small piece of it.
Big big choice by Rosario and who he picked for the KD. CT should be in everyone’s considerations. Bob did say he didn’t want a blow out race 3 weeks prior to the big dance.
Always laugh when some refer to trainers 1st name basis-as if they personally know them.
Rosario
I. Ortiz Jr
Prat
Saez
Got a feeling there’s going to be 4 or 5 favorites under 4/1. This year I think I’m going to box these 4 jockeys no matter their mounts. But, if I had to pick 1 horse, that would be Concert Tour.
My prediction top top 6 Only :
1) RYW
2) Known Agenda
3) Essential Quality
4) Hot Rod Charlie
5) Highly Motivated
6) Medina Spirit
My prediction on Steve’s Derby Rankings: Week 13
1) RYW
2) Known Agenda
3) Essential Quality
4) Highly Motivated
5) Hot Rod Charlie
6) Medina Spirit
7) Midnight Bourbon
8) Super Stock
9) Caddo River
10) Dynamic One
11) Concert Tour
12) Soup and Sandwich
OK. Top 5 spots, no disagreement. But Medina Spirit at #6? Why would Steve move him up that much? I think he’ll be at #10 or #11. Caddo River may not even be entered, so I don’t think that Steve would take a chance on giving him a spot in the Top 12. But for that matter, Concert Tour isn’t a cinch to run either. I also see no reason he’d drop Bourbonic from the list. Because Steve described Helium as his 13A, I’ll predict he gets in at 12.
One of the 12 had to go to make room for Super Stock, winner of the Arkansas Derby.
Okay, but Greatest Honour was an obvious throw-out to make room for Super Stock. So to put Caddo in, you took out the Wood winner. Do you think that Steve values the one-dimensional loser of two straight races, Caddo River (who may not even be pointed to the Derby), over his current #11 Bourbonic?
Hey EddieF
How about stepping up to the plate, and post your prediction as to how Steve’s Derby Rankings: Week 13, will look like on Monday, April 12.
LOL. I kinda just did. But here goes:
STEVE’S WEEK 13 RANKINGS
1) Rock Your World
2) Known Agenda
3) Essential Quality
4) Highly Motivated
5) Hot Rod Charlie
6) Midnight Bourbon
7) Super Stock
8) Dynamic One
9) Soup and Sandwich
10 Concert Tour
11) Bourbonic
12) Helium
Oh no! I left out Medina Spirit! He’s #12. Helium doesn’t get in.
Perhaps Steve is giving Concert Tour a mulligan until full disclosure of his condition after the Arkansas Derby.
1) Rock Your World
2) Known Agenda
3) Essential Quality
4) Concert Tour
5) Higly Motivated
6) Hot Rod Charlie
7) Super Stock
8) Midnight Bourbon
9) Dynamic One
10) Soup and Sandwich
11) Bourbonic
12) Medina Spirit
Gentlemen’s bet on whose CT prediction is closest to Steve’s ranking this morning?
In no particular order at this still early stage since I don’t have the past performances and know how the horses are thriving or not, the top four are clearly in no particular order. RYW, KA, EQ, HM, which makes the Blue Grass the key race. Two of top four battled to the wire in the Blue Grass. Could HM pull a Street Sense?(2nd in the Blue Grass) Or is he a Sharp Humor( battled with Barbaro in the FL Derby, losing by a head I think but was next to last I believe in the 2006 Derby.
You moved Dynamic One way up there; I concur. While the other horses were spinning their wheels on that deep track, he was having fun; I just hope it didn’t take too much out of him. I do think his connections will think twice before sending him to Kentucky.
Oops, you didn’t move Dynamic One up. I like your derby dozen.
Medina Spirit will be at the bottom and also Caddo River. I don’t think Mr. Haskin will move Dynamic One down from 9 to 10. He will probably move up to No. 8.
My selections for Derby- EQ, RYW, CR. By May 1, CR for the win. Why? He handles anything thrown at him to date and is versatile.
It will interesting to see how aggressive Sadler will be with Rock these next two works (and he does have one “scenario” where he would work him three times.) But was quoted saying he probably won’t use three. I’m guessing he works Rock hard (not a joke EddieF) both times and long ? He has shown to work Rock as hard as needed. There are always concerns of injuries prior to the Derby and many horses in general are injured during their works. But I don’t believe Sadler will ease up. Steve your thoughts ?
Man… reading back through this …lol
Ha! Don’t count on Steve answering. He’s probably locked himself in a soundproof room all day pouring over past performances, figures, replays, and workouts, all the while texting the dozens of contacts he has among Derby-bound trainers and owners for inside information. Just a couple of feet away is a 62-cup Hamilton Beach coffee urn plus three dozen Krispy Kreme donuts for sustenance.
Yes after I sent that last night, I was thinking the same thing about Steve… locked in a room working on his weekly pics ..
all horses are fit……forget works…….
We sitting here — and we talking about workouts. I mean, listen: We talking about workouts. Not a race. Not a race. We talking about workouts. Not a race. We talking about workouts, man.
I remember Sunday Silence stepping way up and winning the SA Derby by 10 lengths…that primed him for his big Derby win….he was already good but his SA Derby run was a huge step up—no bounce in Kentucky—he won in SA by 10…wasn’t his limit, he won Derby/Preakness vs a great horse…..I’m not certain Rock Your World’s SA Derby win means he’s going to bounce, he has run three races, three wins, three big gallop outs—
My high five horses for the Derby:
Rock Your World
Essential Quality
Known Agenda
Rod Hot Charlie
Medina Spirit
Hey Eddie F I see that you are not even trying to divine Steve’s ranking tomorrow… Where you put Concert Tour, Caddo River and Super Stock now?… it is a conundrum … isn’t it?
I’m working on it. 🙂 #4 Concert Tour has to drop to the lower third of the Dozen. Of course, #5 Greatest Honour is out. That leaves room for Super Stock. But who know where without benefit of the T-G or Brisnet ratings on Monday? As for the top of the dozen, I expect it stays the same, even with conflicting numbers for Rock the World.
I like your top 5. I would very tentatively have the green Soup and Sandwich instead of the experienced Hot Rod Charlie in my own group. 😮 Super Stock could replace Medina Spirit depending on his Brisnet pace and speed figs.
soup and sandwich is skinny……i heard
Yeah. I heard that, too. I wonder if buffets are open in Louisville.
Oh, I forgot to mention Caddo River. In a post-race interview, Brad Cox did not sound like he was likely to send his colt to the Derby.
this is the final Standing:
1 Essential Quality 140
2 Hot Rod Charlie 110
3 Super Stock 109
4 Like the King 104
5 Known Agenda 102
6 Rock Your World 100
7 Bourbonic 100
8 Medina Spirit 74
9 Concert Tour 70
10 Midnight Bourbon 66
11 Mandaloun 52
12 Caddo River 50
13 Highly Motivated 50
14 Helium 50
15 Panadol 40
16 Soup and Sandwich 40
17 Dynamic One 40
18 Crowded Trade 40
19 Sainthood 40
20 Proxy 36
21 Rombauer 34
22 Hidden Stash 32
23 Dream Shake 30
24 O Besos 25
25 Get Her Number 20
26 Hozier 20
27 King Fury 20
If CADDO RIVER, Crowded Trade, Proxy and Dream Shake are not going and Panadol is not confirmed then
Rombauer, Hidden Stash, O Besos and even Get Her Number could sneak into the Derby… King Fury would be AE
The trainers of Rombauer and Hidden Stash were noncommittal … at least a few days ago. I’d be surprised if Panadol isn’t entered.
I hope Panadol is entered. He would ensure an honest pace.
Thank you for the point list. So now we have to see which ones are going to commit. Would think they have to make that call by the end of the week. Everybody would love a nice sunny day and fast track for the Derby, but they can’t promise it. So we wait and see what goes on this week with the works and who may ship to Churchill to work on the track now.
Side note here. The Irish kicked butt in the Grand National at Aintree. Now that is a race, 4 miles and 514 feet up and down hill. They got the 1&2 spots plus the first woman jockey to win. One horse did break down but not jumping. Happened on a flat spot between the hurdles. Possible wrong step, who knows? They made a lot of changes over the years to improve horse safety on what is a dangerous course. Just in case you don’t know 40 horses started that race. They don’t use outriders if a jockey falls off and several horses finished without a rider.
My pleasure Laura.
Yes … high expectation this week to know the definitive Derby Entry. Can’t wait to start picturing the possible pace scenario.
Wow… 40 horses what a Cavalry. I just watched the replay; there were two race callers. Minella Times won with Rachael Blackmore up and only 15 finished the race.
Humongous payouts:
Exacta: £2,053.30
Trifecta: £35,431.20
it is like hitting the lottery !
Will be checking later here to see what Steve comes up with.
As for the Grand National understand they pay out for some bets all the way to 8th place. Not sure they will ever wipe the smile off that young Rachael. She has quite the career ahead.
We also had the white wonder filly, Sodashi win in Japan. Got curious so checked the pedigree. I thought it was pretty darn good. Not just heavy on the US but links to IRE and CAN as well. Not surprised she can run. So far undefeated. Maybe, just maybe might end up in the Breeder Cup races. If I had a ton of money would snatch her up or at least take a top sire to breed her with. Keep the foal for sure.
What about the horse that won the Dubai Derby?
Rebel’s Romance is not coming to the Derby… he will likely run in the Belmont Stakes according to a report 4 days ago.
I hope Todd Pletcher decides not to send Dynamic One; I really like the horse and his outstanding pedigree. I think he could be something special, so save him for the Preakness and if runs his race, on to the Belmont.
Cox stated he would see within the next couple of days regarding CR.
the five favorites!
Watching the Arkansas Derby it is clear that Concert Tour did not show the same spirited disposition we saw in the Rebel. It was discouraging to see how the son of Street Sense was passed by Caddo River after edging that rival in mid-stretch… his late punch was not there!
While trying to grasp Concert Tour’s subpar run yesterday one can have an optimistic view or a pessimistic opinion.
The positive angle is that every horse is entitled to a bad day and that it is better to flop before the Derby so as to give him enough time to rebound. Tuning down his training would do the trick.
The problem with this scenario is that It is not typical for Baffert’s horses to rebound in the Derby as they are normally seen in an upswing trend leading to the big day.
Within the pessimistic rationalization we might have the extreme feeling that, as it happened with Greatest Honour, there is something amiss with Concert Tour; a minor issue bothering him that may or may not be detected but nonetheless will cause his energy level to be unsatisfactory for the Derby. This case will remove him from Derby aspirations.
Another pessimistic view is that Concert Tour is just not good enough to win when he tries to rate. He did a great job to defeat Freedom Fighter in the 7F-San Vicente Stakes coming from behind.
The fact that the other Baffert horse, Hozier, finished last may reveal that both horses could not endure the rigorously ambitious training weathered by the greatest ones from the past….
I do not know what scenario is the closest to the real reasons for Concert Tour’s not being the same but it is certain that Baffert’s team is deliberating about the way forward with the one once considered their best card for the Derby.
Meanwhile, we will be eagerly waiting for any pertinent report in the coming days.
Nelson, that’s an excellent analysis of CT’s disappointing effort. Steve wrote about CT that “This is not the Derby you want a one-dimensional horse with so many tactical speed horses in there.” It looks like CT will be gunned for the lead in the Derby and challenge the others to try outrunning him. As you said, his lack of stretch punch yesterday does not bode well for lasting to the wire. None of Baffert’s Derby winners had a running line like CT in the final prep. His last 4 winners had all won their last prep. Before those, Silver Charm lost the SA Derby by a head to Free House in a thrilling finish, and Real Quiet ran a final furlong in 12 2/5 in the SA Derby to finish second to Indian Charlie. And Baffert’s three 2nd-place Derby horses all won their last prep.
I don’t see BB breaking the Derby win record this year.
Yes Eddie … I do agree about Baffert having to wait for his new record.
His horses with the worst last race before the Derby were:
Semoran (6th in the BG), Lookin at Lucky and Captain Steve (3rd in the SA Derby), Liason (6th SA Derby) and Solomini (3rd in the Ark Derby)
None did well in the Derby.
Take the optimistic view; remember Secretariat lost the Wood two weeks before winning the Kentucky Derby in record time. Secretariat had an abscess in his mouth, which prevented him from running his race. For whatever reason, Concert Tour had a bad day, he’ll be back.
Hey Steve…I was looking at the BH pictures of Citation, and read where in 1948 there was FOUR weeks between that year’s Preakness and Belmont, not the three weeks it has been all my life…of course Ciration didn’t take the four weeks off, he won the Jersey Derby two weeks between the Preakness and Belmont! 19 for 20 as a three year old!
That half to Justify and The Lieutenant really trucked down the stretch…changing leads and ducking in several paths, notwithstanding, the horse was fairly flying…..
Steve, what are the chances that Panadol will actually come to the Derby? Or are you planning to address that in tomorrow’s post (should be a good one!)
Thought Concert Tour was exposed yesterday. Not every Baffert horse can be the second coming of American Pharoah. Pleased that Super Stock ran so well. Steve Asmussen may be sneaking up on every one else.
I think King Fury would be a top 5 contender if he got in the Derby. Currently he’s at 27th. The only question is whether the sealed track helped him along in the final stretch. But that’s why it’s called betting, you have to take a chance that it was only coincidental to that fast finish.
In the interests of seeing him entered, the following would have to drop out, some already have: Weyburn, Panadol, Crowded Trade, Proxy, Rombauer, Hidden Stash, Dream Shake, Get Her Number, O Besos. That would put him at 19th, so if Panadol entered, he’d still get in at 20th. I think he’s way better than all of these, although they earned their place in line. He won his final prep. The lesser distance and points aren’t as significant as the performance he gave and its timing.
For what it’s worth:
King Fury, 95 BSF
Super Stock, 92 BSF
what did the maiden get?
Stage Raider, 7f, 95
Makes Prevalence look good, he beat him by 8
As a fan of Prevalence, that was the reason I bet Stage Raider on Saturday. He shows a lot of promise and could develop into a good one. It would be special if Stage Raider and Prevalence could have a rematch, say, in the Travers? I think they both will be at their peak in August.
I never get lost in numbers.
Neither do I. 🙂 But there was a debate last night about the expected BSF for Super Stock. So it was just a public service announcement. I don’t use BSFs at all! I prefer to look at the Brisnet pace and speed numbers as part of a comprehensive analysis.
Jack Van Berg stated, “time only matters if you’re doing it”. I hold to that.
Then he said, “Excuse me, I need to go because I don’t want to be late for an appointment.”
I don’t pay attention to any type of numbers,etc. Remember when Beyer threw Zenyatta under the bus for her “slow numbers” ? Thinking she did okay. His parents wasted their funds sending him to Harvard. LOL
Hi, FnF. Sounds like you didn’t fully understand my post, and maybe you haven’t followed the comments here the past couple of days. You don’t have to convince me about Super Stock. I picked him and bet him in the Ark Derby, and I tabbed him as a Ky Derby contender following the race. As for the pedigree, I was referring to what some racing writers have said (maybe I should have typed “assumed” rather than “apparent”), though it should be noted that the average winning distances of his sire and dam sire as shown in the PPs are weak. But I am not a pedigree expert, so I rely on performance factors to guide me (though I’m looking forward to reading Steve’s evaluation of SS’s pedigree).
Sorry. This was meant to be a reply to Fave n Foil.
I think his sire, Dialed In was distance limited; he won the Florida Derby, but 1 1/8 was as far as he could run. There is a fair amount of stamina influence further back in Super Stock’s pedigree via the tail-female side . So there is a chance he may outrun his pedigree. I always go back to Secretariat where everyone was saying that Bold Ruler’s were distance limited; they paid no attention to the mare and her sire, Princequillo, one of the greatest stamina influencers of all time.
Well, Gunnevera was a closing 2nd in the BC Classic, one length behind Accelerate. So there’s that…
Steve looking forward to the next edition here. I know of 2 at Churchill now and anybody that ran yesterday in Keenland right next door. Not that they will stay there. I do miss those days when you and Lenny would have those short videos on BH before the Derby, following the works, trainers and just having fun.
Please oh please let O Besos into the derby so I can unload. #MineThatBirdTheSequel
He should get in unless several of them make stupid decisions and run
Sounds like his chances are improving based on what you wrote for him earlier. I’ll take that. 🙂
Fingers crossed 🙂
Lol, Steve. I hope they make sensible decisions but it is the Derby.
I’m praying O Besos makes the Derby starting gate. He’s listed at 50-1, on Futures Pool 5. I’ve got him boxed with RYW (31-1), in my $2.00 Exacta wager. If RYW wins, and O Besos finishes 2nd, I collect $4785.00. If O Besos wins, and RYW finishes 2nd, I collect $7959.00.
Let’s get it done King Barbaro!
That’s the kind of horse you want for an exacta with one of the favorites. I think he’s going to get in the gate. Good luck!
Thanks EddieF
Good luck to you as well.
That’s amazing. Best of luck to you!
Thanks King Barbaro
Best of luck to you as well.
Who is fresh?……who is tired?……who has been over raced?……Do you want a horse off a lifetime best monster effort?……or one that is running good……only 2 preps 6 weeks off?……..who will likely improve?…………is HOT ROD tired?……well spaced races…..good but not too good……
I think Hot rod fires in the derby……
Did known and rock run great?…..yes……are they tired?…….hard to say….maybe…..you want to get on the ship BEFORE it sails in this game……..
will ROCK get the lead he had when he ran his best?……really?……thats debatable…..its gonna be hot…..if he DOES get lead, is that GOOD?……be careful what you wish for…i think its too fast……
Known ran huge…….will he repeat that?….its tough call…….
EQ is coming into race great also……2 preps….were they super fast?…..no……thats a GOOD THING…….just hoping he runs worse because he will be 10th early…..not right off lead…….
Hot rod charlie should fire……..
My brother always said you want a horse that was competitive in stakes as a two year old, doesn’t have to have won, but he wanted a horse that got tested…Hot Rod checks that box, and he has shipped twice and run big, the horse checks all the boxes, trainer….jockey…ships…2yo bottom…lite schedule….and price is there, too.
I live in New Orleans, so I would like to see Hot Rod Charlie win, but it has been more than 25 years since Grindstone won the Louisiana Derby and went on to win the Kentucky Derby. I live in New Orleans, so I will be happy if he win. My favorite is Dynamic One, although I’m hopeful they will pass on the derby and wait for Belmont.
Hot rod Charlie should fire….that the kids of death….coming from pro vet….
When the VET loads up his post with dots— it’s good advice to listen!
LOL. I think of it as a stream of unconsciousness.
Well the preps are over and I don’t see any horse who can run with Rock !
Cataract surgery might help. 😉
Lol – We’ll SEE!
My only concern, and I probably shouldn’t say this, is Rock getting washed out with excitement prior to the start. Not having 100,000 people at the track should help immensely. I like the way Rispoli handled Rock going into the gate for the Santa Anita Derby. Rock started getting frisky and excited and he calmed him down with just a little sweat. I’ve seen too many horses get worked up prior to the start and they were done… washed out before the race started. Keep him settled down Rispoli! And your the man that can do it! You two are one. He romps !
Yea, a lot can happen, I had Thousand Words last Derby-he didn’t make it out of the paddock.
Yes. So many factors. And all very important.
I got the impression after watching Concert Tour today that it appears to me he wasn’t pushed to his full extent.
So you’re going with that theory?
Ark derby was not fast…………weak……..
His time relative to Par was better than Cz Rocket and By My Standard
Agree… slow…
Final time was one of the slowest in recent times. I’ll give you that.
Just say you were wrong……. for once.
The early fractions of the Ark Derby (along with the SA Derby) were as typical of a Ky Derby pace as any 9f prep this year. Super Stock had the perfect stalking trip. And despite his apparent pedigree limitations, his final furlong time was similar to many KD winners in their final preps.
it was not……..that fast…..derby pace much faster
Prove it. I can prove my contention.
eyes
Wow. “eyes”. As evidence of Derby fractions. You are entertaining at least.
Curious as the the apparent pedigree limitations you see behind him. As an immediate example his Dam sire finished second in the Kentucky Derby… Tracing back from there his family tail line produced a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner.
Further and unrelated to your comment about his pedigree limitations and more to form, today’s race was only his second start of the year and his coming Derby appearance will be just his third off a lay off this year.
Please see reply mistakenly posted as a new thread at 8:12 a.m. Sorry!
Well, that was a surprise. Did not see Super Stock winning at all. Concert Tour certainly had a
chance, as did Caddo River but got run down by a very well trained and fit Super Stock. No
one should ever count out an Asmussen horse is the message there. I still see this coming
down to Rock Your World, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie and Knwon Agenda. I think asking
Super Stock to repeat in a 20 horse field in 3 weeks is asking a lot but who knows, maybe he
is a throw back to the iron horses of yesteryear.
Looks like Hot Rod Charlie will keep Roario
That will be an interesting decision if Rosario goes to CT or HRC. Or if Baffert actually keeps him in the saddle and replace him with his go to rider in Smith? The one mile splits of the ArK derby faster than the final time of olders in the mile race. Speed figure should be high.
Get Her Number ran a sneaky good race flying at the end… the other son of Dialed In will be a good one in the Preakness.
Yes, exactly. Unlucky both times at Oaklawn. Who is actually coming out of the 20 so that O Besos can get a run?
Weyburn, Proxy, Crowded Trade for sure. I would think Dream Shake and maybe Sainthood and Caddo River
Thanks, Steve. Caddo River is an interesting call but a good win.
‘good call’ not good win. The iPad has a mind of it’s own at times. Lol.
I was up close to Dream Shake…nice colt but he has some growing to still do, would be surprised if they go….
Super Stock should get a high Beyer. Maybe triple digit.
no……..slow race………low 90s
Agree low 90’s at best
I’d be surprised if that wasn’t a low Beyer #…I know horses improve, but 1) Beyers don’t jump way up like that, and it looked to me like Concert Tour didn’t fire, more than he was beaten….if that caught a triple digit Beyer I’d be shocked, because that would mean Caddo & Concert had big #’s, too….they didn’t.
He blew the first turn and raced wide the whole race.
My bad again ROCK YOUR WORLD, I will try to be better next time!!
Nothing I saw today finishes in the top four in Louisville, it might be a chalky Derby this time—I’m not even sure Rombauer gets in, now that two more have qualified, sheesh! I may go big win/place this year–like the VET–except I’m on Rock Your World, with a Rock-Known Agenda exacta box….
Nothing like running in the slop! Some upsets including the undercards. I pretty much watch this on twinspires and liked the Keenland coverage but not so much at Oaklawn.
So at Keenland which was very sloppy Bezo was doing well and just about stopped? Hopefully nothing wrong just hated the mud and that goes for all of them that they return to their barns safe and sound. Not a good day for Bob either state.
The only way I can watch this due to my internet is Twinspires and until the Arkansas Derby never saw a real warm up at Oaklawn. Might have been Oaklawn coverage but all I saw there was some trotting and and maybe a very short canter. I did like Keenland giving awards to the grooms. Thought that was a nice touch. So now we wait while they sort out the points.
dISCOURAGED about the Lexington…..i knew it was a pace meltdown……i ended up 3rd, pretty much broke even…..hated proxy……actually looked at those 2 longshots……for a long time……horse ran good…..opportunity missed
Oh I forgot that horse would be ROCK MY WORLD the Kentucky Derby WINNER
Bad news?…..my derby horses odds go down…..was hoping Concert tour would win…….
My DERBY HORSE is HOT ROD CHARLIE……….Simply put, coming into the derby perfect…….
People pick BEST HORSES……i’m a handicapper ……i believe in BEST that day……..EQ looks best on paper,,,also perfectly prepped……i should be picking him…..but for some reason, maybe its the paddle, but just hoping he doesnt win…..he looks very good……
those 2 look like the top……i like them much the best…….
Was hoping for 9-1,8-1……..now 6-1………
HOT ROD CHARLIE……..
Your going to get better than 6-1, he’s a half to Mitole, a miler at best, mostly a sprinter I’d be surprised if he was lower than 8-1, he won in Louisiana, he’s a good horse….not sure at 10 furlongs—there’s why he’ll give you value—I like the way you go for it!
Duly noted. Looks like he gets to keep Rosario. You didnt say why you like him.
why?…….hes good…….he has only 2 races this year…..coming into race perfect…..steady …..your top 2 are coming off huge improvements……..EQ looks perfect…….very afraid …….think charlie runs good……8-1?……i think i win one out of lower than that…….if i lose?…..no prob…..derby has been very good…..
But as i said……..its how they come into race….if he wins, i may bet against him im preakness….
2 preps spaced……5 weeks off?…….watch his last 2…..he was bad start….then last out slammed at start….still ran great…
I just wonder about Rock Your World…my first thought was big improvement, I watched his 3 races, they all are dominating wins, and all 3 have giant gallop outs. .not sure he hadnt just always been big & bad…..
Steve did you see that fantastic, awesome, gallop out this horse did, amazing, lots of talent!!!
Really bad for Concert Tour. Arkansas Derby a bad bad race. Essential Quality the well deserving favorite!
You think?
From what we’ve seen thus far only a bad post will stop Essential Quality. Favorites seem to win the Derby quite regularly these days. Just pray it doesn’t rain – for the spectacle.
I do believe someone on here picked Super Stock to win? Well done!
People think Caddo River will do better … wrong… horses know when they win … when destroyed … they know who is boss …demoralized? yes …. The horse will need therapy to win again… Geroux was wrong … or was he?… can’t do better now … Caddy wouldn’t get out his stall when he sees Concert Tour coming…
You people … 8 to 1? …should know better…
*****Free from the shackles of Grammar and Punctuation… you should try it… it is so liberating…!!
LOL. I’ve tried it. It’s wonderful! You da maaaaaaan!
LOL just practicing Telegraphic writing
BTW … Congrats Eddie F for your prognostication on Super Stock !!!
Hope you put one buck to win on the beautiful son of Dialed In… Interesting Derby ahead…!
Hey, I had two bucks on him
It’s all about the bet, not the amount! 😉
Congrats Steve… you were supporting all the people who believed in Super Stock!
Now the question is: where will you rank Concert Tour against Super Stock on Monday?
Did you have to bring that up?
Thanks! That was exciting! Had an exacta box with CT and SS, and a win/place bet on SS.
Congrats! Always nice to bring home a winner!
Thanks! A new contender in the Derby.
Where you been ND? Good to have you back.
Thanks Steve… but I have been with you all the time using my real name… I think that anonymity and pseudonymity does not help accountability and responsible posts…!
Wow, incognito. Glad youve been here all the time
Unreal! How did CT do? lmao
Wait a minute—“you people”???…..DOTS?….do you have an alter-ego?….
I was pulling Eddie F’s leg … but he got the quip.
I knew UH would run well – I still think he’s a very good horse in the making. I do hope he’s not going to truly be a deep closer as it will be hard for him to win races like that. I’ve been on this horse since his debut, except when he ran badly against Risk Taker in his second start. He’s really improving. Todd said recently he could go in Preakness, but I think Peter Pan is more likely.
Also, Ethical Judgement ran very well in his return – Brendan Walsh is high on him.
Hey, we have broken the 500 comment barrier. Thank you everyone.
I’ll drink to that!
🙂
Cheers ! 🙂
HOLY COW! Justify’s baby brother.
Stage Raider loves the mud like his big Brother…!
One to watch moving ahead for sure!
Well, no one from the Lexington is going to the Derby. Except maybe the jocks.
LOL. And it wasn’t a good day for a panty raid.
Just awful!
Steve…You should do a column about the most disappointing Derby winner careers. Always Dreaming comes to mind
Too many to list. Always Dreaming had bad ulcers, wasnt the same. He was a very good horse.
Well here we are, the last of the Derby preps, where does the time go?!
Steve, I’ve been following your Derby Dozen/Rankings for several years now, and I have to say, this group of race fans has been by far the best ever! The positive vibe that everyone has has truly been refreshing! Just a bunch of race fans exchanging thoughts, opinions, and sometimes some excitement! The research that some of these fans do is remarkable, and actually quite interesting! I just get the feeling you’ve got some really sharp people contributing this year. Unlike some years when we see a select few who border on blah blah blah. And no one has bashed/criticized an opinion of others just because they disagree with that opinion, they just calmly voice their thoughts and move on, nobody has the need to stroke their ego by pounding the table with “listen to me, my opinion is best”!! And the humor that’s been flying around has been great! EddieF has thrown several laughs out there, and I think you gave us a funny reference to Gone With the Wind!!? So Great!
Three more weeks!!
Thanks again for all the time you put in!
You are SO right, Bruce. This is the best group I’ve ever had and this has been more fun by far than any Derby Dozen ever in the 21 years at Bloodhorse. Thank you chiming in on that.
Well my Dad always did tell me “things happen for a reason”!
Your dad was very wise.
I agree 100%. Bloodhorse was toxic.
Projecting KD odds:
EQ-4/1
CT-9/2
RYW-6/1
Known Agenda 10/1
Correct me if this isn’t close.
HRC—12/1
I’m not sure he’ll be that short.
Hey, Jeff. Tough to say at this point, before the Ark Derby and before the entries and PP draw. But there always seems to be a contender that’s bet more heavily than you figure (e.g., Improbable, My Boy Jack) and one that isn’t bet as heavily as you figure (e.g., Roadster).
Your numbers seem reasonable, but my guess is with a win today that Concert Tour will be the post-time favorite–due mainly to the Baffert Effect, but also because he has plenty of early speed and is undefeated. If he scores big–that is, a big margin and high figure–he could be 3-1. A more ordinary win will get 7-2 or 4-1. But lots of things can happen in the next few weeks to change these predictions.
Sounds good and I’ll take the 10-1 on Known Agenda. I wouldnt be surprised if RYW gets bet, depending on the pre-race hype.
If RYW is training well he will be your Derby day favorite
Rooting for Concert Tour, if he wins big that will help Rock Your World’s price…
LOL, good thinking.
Hockey Dad…very good effort from outside post in first ever AW race….competitive speed figure…Coming back in two weeks…This colt is fit fit fit….look what he did when coming back in ONE week..$1 trillion on the nose…GOAL!!!!!
He is going to be tough. Doug ONeills’ horses are always fit and can handle racing close up
provet4 • a minute ago
oK…..watch starininmydreams first race…….pretty good….for that time of year….he comes back , wins an avg race…….both races this year were a nightmare….went ranker than rank crazy, lost by 30+ bad signs….trouble in last…….expecting huge wake up in lexington….
this race is about as hot of a pace that you will ever see……
Proxy on paper is a cinch….but i have him regressing…..
Either Star has problems, or he is ready to fire his best race……he didnt run in both races this year……
100wps 6-1………..rate him one run…..hope proxy regresses……….
point about his first race?……he showed he had talent……then has not been able to show it……
have you seen a faster pace?………it will be blazing……..off track too…..probably
“provet4 • a minute ago”
What is that? A re-post from another website? Are you trying to inflict pain on as many people as possible?
It i s indeed a re-post from another site…word for word. But thats OK, he can post as many places as he wants. No law against it.
What’s worse is that it’s ellipsis for ellipsis.
I’m sure he cut and paste it, but as I said I dont have a problem with him repeating his thoughts on different websites
Yeah. I was just having some fun at PV’s expense.
Mr. Haskin, obviously my head has been in the clouds for quite some time; I didn’t know you had a derby dozen website. On another note, I am pretty sure people are tired of my verbiage relative to Dynamic One on the Horse Racing Nation website. A couple of weeks ago I informed everyone that this special horse was going to hit the board in the Wood. Finally people responded with “thanks for the tip” and “I’ll keep an eye on him”. So I kind of enjoy people posting the same thing over and over; I’m amused.
This could be a year for a major longshot like Mine That Bird. Don’t see Rock running well. Don’t think Known can win. Like Essential but not a lock to fire. We’ll see how good Concert looks in the Ark.
I have been watching Dynamic One from the moment he stepped on the track in his first maiden race; it was his 2nd race at Gulf Stream that really caught my attention. I was surprised that Todd Pletcher entered him in the Wood off of a maiden win, but then I thought perhaps the horse was showing him something special in the mornings. So I put him in an exacta wager and of course I lost; Bourbonic showed up. All I can say is Dynamic One has a spectacular pedigree; the Union Rags/Smart Strike cross is producing some nice foals. I hope Todd Pletcher saves him for the Preakness and/or Belmont
I told several of his connections that this was a major stakes horse after he finished fourth in a maiden race and wrote it up in Knocking on the Door.
Mr. Haskin, I didn’t know you had a derby dozen website until this morning, I thought you were gone forever after leaving Bloodhorse. Obviously, my head was in the clouds for the past couple of years.
I like the chances of graded stakes-placed Super Stock getting in the exacta — and earning more than enough points for a Derby start. After a hard summer/fall campaign (5 races Aug-Oct, including a 3rd to Essential Quality), he was given 4.5 months off. He returned in the Rebel Stakes and finished an even 4th.
He definitely has a good shot to finish second.
Rock galloped 1 1/2 miles today. Sadler said he “looks great”… he plans on working 2 times before the Derby… next weekend and then the following ….
Looks like several of the California horses are on a Saturday or Sunday schedule.
I THOUGHT they would send Rock to the front the other day, not wanting the kickback, and they did. He broke near the back and was RIDDEN to the front….I think they will do the same in Louisville, and that’s why I’m looking for closers….Rock and a couple of closers..
I am so glad that Greatest Honour has such a fine horseman caring for him. Shug detected a problem before it became something worse and sent him to the best orthopedic equine surgeon in Kentucky and perhaps in the world.
And how wonderful it is that Ron and Debbie McAnally have bred Rock Your World. I really hopes he rocks everyone’s world on the first Saturday in May. I am sure that the spirit of John Henry will be watching at Churchill Downs; John Henry really loved and connected with Ron McAnally and was despondent when he was sent to Kentucky to retire at the Kentucky Horse Park.
From what I heard John Henry didn’t live anybody! Ron could never enter his stall.
John Henry loved his groom and Ron McAnally. He and Ron shared a bond, as John Henry was unwanted and Ron was an orphan.
I could understand their bond, as I was an orphan and was adopted.
But boohoo Greatest Honour the main closer-midpacker is out. Who to bet on now?
I’m looking at Known Agenda and Rombauer as my closers, and Rock Your World as the controlling speed.
A little off topic Steve but this is something I knew would happen since I started appearing on your blogs. Today, in the 3rd race at Keeneland, the 4 horse, a scrappy bay colt of impeccable breeding is going to grace or disgrace, a distinguished handle. May the force be with him. It’s like answering the door and having some strange kid who doesn’t even look like you smile and greet with HI DAD! instead of the usual, “we’re collecting money for yada yada yada and were wondering if you could help?”
I have to admit you lost me. Lol
I know that I can begin speaking in tongues but usually not before happy hour. Keeneland card, race 3, horse 4 should clarify.
There ya go. Maybe Saez can pull off an El Kabong — Essential Quality double
Ha! Your namesake. Or are you the owner?
Not the owner. I hope he runs well and Kurt Becker has some fun with the name.
Keyed El Kabong in trifecta. Go Luis
I’m always looking for a “value” horse in the Derby, and despite my picks running well, they rarely win. In recent years favorites have had a distinct advantage. This year, I’m going with the horse that I think in the days before the race has the best chance of winning. Period.
Known Agenda likely will be fourth choice. That is my value bet. I have a few longshot picks in mind.
I look forward to your selections! I’m guessing that the favorite/longshot bias will continue to hold true in the Derby. The odds on any longshot you may like won’t be favorable. Let’s say you like Midnight Bourbon and he’s 20-1. Do you think he has a 5% chance of winning, particularly considering that 16 runners combined may have only a 10-15% chance?
As of now, Essential Quality and Known Agenda are the only potential starters that have no knocks in EddieF’s Derby Profile (available at your local dollar store). If Concert Tour wins tomorrow, I think he’ll be the favorite at about 7-2. You are right about KA’s odds. He could be as high as 12-1.
Eddie, do you really sell a tip sheet? If so, that makes you a “tout.”
Sticks and stones….
Known Agenda is the wise guy horse! He won’t be over 10-1…Hot Rod Charlie will but not KA
I said “could be as high as…” Yes, 10-1 is more likely.
I think KA will get bet…maybe 4 under 10-1, him being one…
Percentage? I stopped using arithmetic in the fourth grade after getting baffled by long division.
LOL. No long division necessary. You just need to convince yourself that you can use subjective criteria to arrive at an objective number.
I think I’ll be using Like The King (closer) and Midnight Bourbon (front runner) with the Essential World Rock Concert Tour Agenda on my tickets. The reality is if my tickets hit anything other than the floor it will be luck.
I’m leaning toward Known Agenda also. I think we may very well see the return of Giacomo or Animal Kingdom this year. Like the King has few knocks against him at this point except synthetic for his graded stakes win, and think what the odds will be on Sainthood. Or how about Highly Motivated for a romp?
Medina Spirit will be forgotten but he also got the genes for the 10 furlongs… his odds could be as high as 20 to 1 on Derby Day.
The son of Protonico was the 4 to 5 favorite in the Santa Anita Derby but he was beaten by a truly special horse… he ran 40 feet more than the spectacular Rock Your World but never was a match for that bundle of pure energy.
If RYW or any of the big horses is bumped, checked or has to run very wide he can be in the mix especially with a clean run…
He’s a nice colt that could definitely be in the money. But he doesn’t have much stretch punch, and he looked fatigued late in the SA Derby.
Fatigued were Parnelli and The Great One…
I believe Medina Spirit did very well considering that he had lost a month of training before the SA Derby… he was not 100%.
Rock Your World finished in 12 4/5 and MS went 13 1/5 for the last furlong… and MS separated further from Dream Shake in the final 2 F.
Let’s see how all these horses move forward …
Correction: Medina Spirit lost effectively like two weeks of training after undergoing surgery to correct entrapped epiglottis … in any case there was a disruption in his conditioning for the SA Derby….!
I agree that he wasn’t in peak form due to the lost time in training.
that’s funny……
Thanks. It was a parody. Or a spoof. I get them confused.
We are all getting excited and playin our game… this is fun! Closing in on the best day of the year (Derby Day) ! and Spring in the Adirondacks !!!!
Havent picked Lexington……Proxy is much the best on paper……but i have him regressing…….good race to bet….
Bad Signs?
Mike, so good to see you bacK!!! Hope all is well.
Other site way too toxic with one disturbed individual -living under delusion thinking they run it. Hope everything is great for you.
no…….the ship has sailed…….why get on now?
IT IS TIME TO …….change the triple crown……maybe make it a month and a month, instead of 5 weeks……..TRAINING has changed. We are so much smarter than back in the day. The PREAKNESS is IRRELEVANT. Only the winner should run. rUNNING BACK IN 2 WEEKS IS BAD for the horse.
It is therefore EASIER to win the crown.
The only OTHER CHOICE. Is to increase the purses ALOT. These races should have bigger purses anyway already. Make the DERBY 6-8 million, Preakness and Belmont 4 million…….
These classic races should be CLASSIC.
Let’s not forget about the horses well being first … as Mott does …
2 weeks to the Preakness means nobody who wins the Derby puts horse first ..nobody except Ed Gregson, who didn’t run Gato Del Sol back because of the 2 weeks, and he said that….
I agree. The schedule doesn’t make sense in the 21st century. But I’d be fine with 3 wks/4wks. And I’ve never liked the turn-back distance of the Preakness. How about an 11f Preakness?
What do you mean by “Only the winner should run”?
Guess the English had the right idea in the first place.
No trainer should run a top horse back in 2 weeks…….ever………only the derby winner should run….why?…..to win the triple crown……..for a long time it has pretty much been like this…..
Stretching out the Triple Crown would help the Preakness no end, it’s always been just an afterthought for a long time.
I said that years ago and almost got my head chewed off! Or course, I said month, month–and turf last race–cuz who runs 12 furlongs on dirt anymore!
The grumpy Chrome owner was right about how nowadays, the 20-horse Derby winner goes in the Preakness—but hardly any other Derby horses go anymore—and they are fresher for the Belmont–it used to be they all came back in the Preakness, or most came back….
Newsflash Mattie! “That grumpy Chrome owner” has one on you!
Just my opinion, and I’m old school, so I say keep the triple crown schedule as is, it’s tradition and I like tradition. Makes the achievement more meaningful….IMO.
Much harder today….20 horses AND the Derby also runs skip the Preakness, come into the Belmont fresher…what Bob has done is amazing
Leave it alone! Pretty sure in the past and mean way back they ran the Preakness a week after the Derby. I disagree smarter, just different. The purses depend on the sponsors and you can’t force them to ante up more then they want to. Changing the challenge to make it easier takes away from the ones that have done it. Why the Triple Crown is special. Why all 3 races are special, all of them including the Preakness.
the preakness is irrelevant……its a race most skip……how is this good?……it is time…….like i said………..only other option…..RAISE THE PURSES…….WAY UP
All these TC winners are special because they ran all 3 races, including the Preakness. Some of these traditional TC races were at even longer distances then what we see today. Why do you want to just forget the Preakness that has been around just about as long as the Derby? Some trainers skip all 3 races! Even Man O War skipped the Derby! Sure they as in the owners, trainers would love to see bigger purse money. Maybe in the future when things calm down a bit they will. The horse and the team behind them are either up to it or not. The TC defines the horse as a great one.
After Gato del Sol skipped the Preakness, and then Spend a Buck skipped the Preakness…VISA offered up a $5 million bonus for winning the Triple Crown, because they didn’t want Derby winners to skip the Preakness….they kept the bonus for around 20 years, I think….
Steve I have no idea how you can do this. How exhausted you must be… not only trying to monitor ALL the training and racing and then find time to answer ALL of us, and work the garden ?
I can’t even monitor what I’ve sent …lol…Your a breath of fresh air and when you SEE a horse that could be special you say it. That’s what you do. Your old school. Have a beer and shut your computer and phone off !
Thank you very much, JC. I appreciate it. It is a lot of work that actually starts immediately after the Monday Rankings appear. But I love doing it and love looking for new hidden gems. Its almost sad in a way when the maiden and allowance races no longer are important and its just stakes. I also love the freedom I have here to write as long as I want and my comments are much more informal and conversational than at Bloodhorse. Also I try to answer as many people as I can. I appreciate everyone’s comments and the way to make their comments feel important is to respond to them, and most people on ere very sharp and I enjoy responding.
🙂
Just wanted to add saw clips of Soup and Sandwich, Essential Quality arriving at Churchill. SAS looked thin. He was tearing into his haynet, eyes bright but you could see his ribs walking off the van. Is that normal for him? EQ looked great and was full of himself in that stall. Seems to be a camera ham.
Wow, ribs showing is not a good sign. That’s not normal for any horse. Maybe Mark Casse will give him an extra bag of oats for the next few days. 🙂
See if you can find it, might be from Churchill. Was on my FB feed. I wasn’t the only one that saw it either in the comments. It was dark out so maybe shipping stress. He was hungry tearing into what looked like alfalfa in the haynet. If was just from the shipping and not sure how they did it they have time to get the weight back on
He needs some New England clam chowder and a Reuben.
Sounds delicious. We all need some New England Clam Chowder and a Reuben.
Steve (and all you veteran bettors who post) what do you make of the Lexington Stakes? Will Proxy come through, or will another fresh face like Swiftsure or Noble Reflection steal the show?
(FYI: Tonight’s porch entertainment is a local band playingthe recurring theme from “Red” and other assorted mellow tunes, wafting up from the valley below at just the right sound level. It’s great to live in the hippest town in the Catskills.)
Proxy is by far the class of the race. Hockey Dad is getting good right now and Doug O’Neill is always Dangerous. Noble Reflection is the fastest horse but never been over 6f. Unbridled Honor is a nice colt and can get a piece of it; could even win. But I see Proxy and Hockey Dad as the two horses to beat.
What about Bezos Steve. He obviously ran out of gas in his first race but then broke his maiden next out. He’s impressive in size, appearance and he can move… may take some time to fully develop those lungs ! Not a Baffert fan but think Bezos could win this race. If he does and there are e few more defections from the Derby…. could he sneak in with 20 points ! Points to qualify may be lower than normal this year …I know you indicated he may be aiming for the Preakness …. but if he could get in?
I dont know what to make of Bezos. In that first dreadful start he got a dismal 13 Thoro-Graph figure. Know what he got in his second start? Another 13. That is absurd to get the same fig on a 4 1/2 length victory as he got in that first start finishing up the track. you have no idea how slow a 13 is for a horse running in a stakes. So I am clueless with him.
Me to … but he looks good.. he’s a beast .. but I don’t think he’ll be ready until next year … maybe Preakness as you said..
Thats why i’m shocked he is doing this…….he would be 40-1 if anyone else trained him……why is he doing this?……i think he really looks like a good horse in his works, its very interesting….
This won’t be the last time we here of Bezos … that I’m certain.
I inquired about that slow number because I couldnt believe the horse, specially a Baffert horse, ran that slow in a big win and Jerry Brown said that 13 was correct and that it was a very slow race,
😮 Has Thoro-Graph hired Andy Beyer?
Bezos shouldn’t be pushed on.
he should not be running in this race……..thats why it is shocking…..and i think he has ability…he looked awesome in work…..like i said he will be a long price…..6-1 or so, if another trainer?….30-40 to 1
Proxy is certainly the class of the field, but offers very little betting value. Swiftsure has shown exceptional speed in both career starts, and was drawing away in the late going. From a speed perspective, Swiftsure is much faster than Proxy, the only question, can he carry that speed over the 8.5 furlong distance. His dam sire, Speightstown, was a sprinter, but his sire, Uncle Mo has produced a few quality routers. I plan on keying Swiftsure (5-1) and Proxy (6/5) in the first two slots, with Noble Reflection, Bezos, It’s My House, Hockey Dad and Ultimate Badger in the 3rd and 4th slots, in my Superfecta wager. That is: 2,7/ 2,7/ 1,3,4,6,8/ 1,3,4,6,8
Cost: $40.00
Good luck Mary Ellen
Nice analysis, Bill (and a lot of value for $40 — hope you hit!) Speightstown is such a superstar that some of his progeny outrun their sprinter pedigrees, Should be an interesting race.
Trifecta Box: Swiftsure, Proxy, Unbridled Honor, Bezos
Imagine the story of Luis Saez trying to emulate Joel Rosario in winning the Dubai World Cup and the Kentucky Derby the same year… and even better if Joel Rosario defeats Luis in the Derby…!
I guess Saez is owed a Derby.
Considering when that incident happened—Horse Racing dodged a nuclear bomb!
The scenario of Essential Quality facing two laudable challengers in Rock Your World and Concert Tour represents also the clash between a conventional progression of young horses and a new trend in the path to the Derby.
On one side, Essential Quality has been developing from an adequate two-year-old campaign to a well-planned transition to his 3-year-old career. On the other corner we see two gifted prospects whose raw talent is so exceptional that they can carry the day without needing a 2-year-old campaign.
Essential Quality is steadily becoming faster with every race and the new prospects are fast from the get-go. The assumption is that they will improve or at least keep their form in the Derby.
Few people are daring to write off Rock Your World and Concert Tour due to their lack of 2-year-old experience (courtesy of Justify). After all, both horses have by now proved to be fast and resilient enough to be top contenders… so, they are able athletes by nature and by nurture as well.
Starting a horse career when he is ready is a wise decision by the trainer.
Essential Quality began his serious training in June 2020 and debuted 3 months later. Concert Tour also started training in early June 2020 but he had a break from August to early November. The son of Street Sense did not run last year but you could say that his 17 workouts kind of built some foundation in him … specially knowing that Baffert pushes his horses hard in the mornings…!
The same can be said about Rock Your World with 19 workouts in 2020 starting in late June rendering 2.8 workouts per month.
It takes a special horse to endure the rigors of the Derby Trail and win the Derby and in these modern days, not running as a 2-year-old does not preclude being that elite horse.
I’m late to the Essential Quality fan club, but I’m now convinced he’s at the top of the class. His speed figures improved with each race as a 2yo (Brisnet 84, 92, 101) and his Blue Grass (102) was a 4-point improvement from the Southwest (98). Everyone knows that he’s versatile, as he’s vied for the lead and stalked, and he’s closed on a fast pace. And what I like most about him is that he’s never given up an inch from the stretch call to the finish in any of his five races/wins, including four graded stakes at 8.5 and 9 furlongs. He’d be the first grey/roan to win the Derby in 16 years. He’s trained by a future Hall of Famer who’s never had a Derby runner. Lastly, if he’s up a river, he’ll have no worries.
I’m not.
Mike, I have concerns about EQ also.
What’s your take on EQ Paula?
I like baffert’s handling of CT with the 7 furlong San Vincent. I remember Steve saying he likes a 7 furlong race as a foundation for bigger and better. EQ got his top figure at his home track. CT two top figures are from different tracks. I’ve said it before I am not an EQ fan…
Forget to say, good stuff Nelson.
Thanks Jeff … really appreciate your words!
Nelson, good work. By the way, does the ‘secret weapon’ have a certain mount for the Derby yet?
Thanks Davids… it looks like he will keep Highly Motivated for the Derby.
Jeff, I don’t think it’s fair to compare EQ and CT that way in regard to having a sprint race. I believe that Steve referred to 2yos returning for their 3yo campaign. CT began his 3-race career with two sprints. EQ had a most successful 2yo season, including a maiden sprint win at Churchill Downs. Anyway, how many contemporary Derby winners have had a sprint (7f or otherwise) to start their 3yo campaigns? Nyquist is the only one that I can remember, and he had just the 7f race and the Florida Derby following his championship year. That may have been the first time in 50 years that a Derby winner had a penultimate prep of less than 1 mile.
I’m also not sure what relevance there is in your second point. Is there a historical argument to back it up?
Only a bad post will stop Essential Quality, the professional racehorse in the pack.
EQ competition has not been good, and in fact running in the Blue Grass, in my view, Cox was “hiding” EQ against the CT of the world at his home track… Blue Grass winner hasn’t won a KD in 30 years. OUCH!
Where a horse runs isn’t a performance factor. And does it matter whether a horse WON the Blue Grass? Street Sense lost the 2007 BG by a nose and won the Derby. Also, I believe that EQ’s “home track” is Fair Grounds.
lmao Cox wasn’t ” hiding” EQ!!!!
Did you take notice where Steve Haskin has placed the colt that came second to Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes? Highly Motivated is at No. 6, that is the highest position of any of the beaten colts. You might want to start rethinking on who beat who.
Greatest Honour at No. 5 is out of the running so is not in the conversation.
How did CT do today?
I like your top choice, Steve. I believe this colt has more upside on pedigree alone, than many of the other colts. I could say the same for Dynamic One and Concert Tour. I’m just not convinced that the Into Mischief’s want 10f. And while his pedigree is also a little short, I’m keeping my eye on Hot Rod Charlie who has proven to be a tough customer when on the lead.
What does Into Mischief have to do with Dynamic One and Concert Tour?
This horse is not a pace horse…..he wont be challenging for the lead
So….Ron McAnally gets one last great one, Candy Ride, who won his three races in Soyth America…wins his first race up here, wrong lead….then wins the American, chasing a very good turf horse and then his final race, Pacific Classic, where he easily beats Medaglia d’Oro…Ron loses his sugar daddy owners, and yet he’s albe to stay relevant in the game with his one free mating with Candy Ride, quite a story…..
And he deserves it! Class act, always has been.
Hi Steve
Please allow me to re-post a comment that I addressed to you on Feb. 26th (one prior to the running of the Pasadena S.)
Feb. 26th, 3:11 pm
Rock Your World is a Candy Ride clot that won his debut, on turf, so impressively, I was hoping John Sadler would try him on dirt, in a Derby prep race. However, he’ll remain on turf for the one mile Pasadena, at SA, on Saturday 2-27. He’ll probably be up against it with Cathkin Ppeak (Ire) going for his third straight win, 8/5.
BTW, Rock Your World’s time in that 6F MSW race was 1:08.47. He is one fast colt. In the event RYW were to win the Pasadena, there’s still time for Sadler to consider a Derby prep race down the road.
Your reply to me was: “You mean yet another with only 3 lifetime starts going into the Derby?
I was somewhat puzzled by your reply, on the face of it, you seemed to be concerned about RYW’s lack of foundation.
However, subsequent to his win in the Pasadena, I was pleasantly surprised that you included him in your KOTD segment,
Week 7. In Week 9, he made it to #12, Week 10, you moved him to #7, in Week 11 he remained at #7, then after his impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby you shot him up to #1, which pleased me very much.
You’ve probably noticed in a prior comment, I placed a $100.00 win wager in Pool 5, at 31-1, and boxed him with ALL, in my $2.00 exacta wager, (cost: $88.00).
IMO, Rock Your World could be another Triple Crown Winner. We’ll see.
I saw all I needed to see in the Pasadena, mainly his sensational gallop out and turn of foot, which made me contact Kosta Hronis and ask him if was going to put him in the SA Derby. He looked that special. I certainly couldnt get excited about him off one 6f maiden race on grass. At that time on the face of it, that was what I felt at the time, based on one 6f maiden turf race. I’m glad you pointed him out. You spotted him before anyone.
Thanks for the Reply Steve
Occasionally, all of us have a gut feeling about a horse. As I mentioned previously, RYW got my attention in first out maiden win, so I started digging into his pedigree, which is top notch for stamina influence, top and bottom. His dam’s sire Empire Maker tracks back to Toussaud, El Gran Senor, S– Appeal, Buckpasser, Busanda and War Admiral (one of the modern day carriers of the large-heart gene). RYW could very well be a carrier of the gene as well, IMO. RYW’s high cruising speed, and his abundance of stamina have the makings of a KD winner, and possibly the Preakness and Belmont as well, IMO.
Bottom line, RYW checks a lot of boxes, moving forward. Your placement of RYW, at #1, in your Derby Rankings: Week 12, is spot on. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the post time favorite in the Derby. 🙂
Oddly his Thoro-Graph number wasnt great, so i have to figure out what bearing that has because the pure speed figs…beyer, brisnet, and timeform were all fast. Go figure.
Speed figures aside, we know RYW has a high cruising speed, with the ability to carry that speed over a distance of ground.
As you mentioned on several occasions, his gallop outs have been over the top. It certainly appears 10-12 furlongs are well within his range. Here’s hoping he draws well, he clears the gate in good order, to be well positioned going into the first turn. I’d love to see RYW go gate to wire in the Derby, and move on to the Preakness and Belmont. First things first, but could we see another Triple Crown winner? Fingers crossed.
Bill: I liked your post, you have a good eye for horses. When I think of Rock Your World I also think of Animal Kingdom, who turned out to be a very nice race horse. Steve has mentioned many times about the foundation of these race horses. Back in the day trainers would race these budding 2year olds many times in sprints. I remember all of the 3 furlong races at Santa Anita in Feb, March & April. Once Hollywood Park opened these horses ran in 4 1/2 or 5 furlong races. They had the Hollywood Juvenile Championship at 6 furlongs also. Past winners of that race were Tomy Lee, Affirmed, Desert Wine, King Glorius, Terlingua, & Squirtle Squirt. I know that all through the late 1950’s & all of the 1960’s we never missed this race.
My point is I guess is that these lightly raced horses are running in longer races right from the start. Whatever one wishes to dissect from this is their own. I know that Mr. Haskin knows horses & knows his stuff. He is the E.F. Hutton of horse racing journalism.
Thank you for the kind words Deacon.
What I know about the sport of horse racing, I owe to people like you, Steve Haskin, Laurie Ross and several others on this blog and the regular contributors on the HRN blog, and yes even Coldfacts, who has been on a hot streak of late, picking out bombers like Bourbonic, at 72-1, in the Wood, Weyburn, at 47-1, in the Gotham and Helium, at 15-1, in the Tampa Bay Derby.
We can all benefit from each other if we keep an open mind, and avoid being critical of others who are entitled to their opinions.
Best of luck moving forward Deacon.
That is very kind of you and I thank you.
Coldfacts strikes me as a very analytical person. Sometimes he makes it personal with a blogger although maybe that is not his intent.
The best longshot I ever hit in a horse race was way back in the 1960’s (I think it was the 60’s) with a horse names Quilche.
He was a turf horse who liked going to the lead.
Robert Wheeler trained him, I think he was Chilean bred. My dad knew Mr. Wheeler so as a result I knew a little as well. Wheeler also trained one of my favorite fillies, Silver Spoon. She won the Santa Anita Derby and was 4th in the Kentucky Derby.
Back in 1964 or 1965 or both, I had George Royal in the San Juan Capistrano, Johnny Longden rode him. He paid a pretty good price.
Ah the memories.
Your quite welcome Deacon
Judging by your comments, relative to the years you’ve been involved in horse racing, it appears we’re about the same age.
I turned 81 this past January, but as they say, age is just a number. With respect to Coldfacts, he and I have been exchanging comments for several years on these blogs, and truthfully, we’ve never had a problem. Sometimes he likes to yank on someone’s chain, but all and all, I believe he’s a decent person, at least from my perspective.
You mentioned your favorite filly, (Silver Spoon), my all time favorite filly was Landaluce, who was undefeated (5 for 5), as a 2 yr. old. She was one beautiful specimen, and was faster than greased lightning. Trained by D. Wayne Lucas, she came down with Colitis X, and died before she could race as a 3 yr. old. There’s no telling what she could have accomplished in her sophomore campaign. You have to admire those that are closely involved in the horse racing business, (owners, trainers, ect. ect.) this sport is certainly not for the thin skinned.
I remember Landaluce very well, saw her amazing races at Hollywood Park. I used to say what if she and Ruffian ever hooked up in a 6 furlong race. That would have been something. Silver Spoon was a long time ago, 1959 was her Santa Anita Derby win. She was my 1st love for a filly.
I also loved Moccasin, Susan’s Girl, Azeri, Songbird & Dreaming of Anna. I guess my heart has a special place for the greatest filly I ever saw run and that was Ruffian. All these equine champions are beautiful animals, hard not to love all of them. I am not quite your age, I’m still clinging to the 70’s but time is so fleeting. My first horse race was the 1955 Santa Anita Derby in which Swaps won. I never forgot that race. We could probably talk for hours about horses. My uncle owned a farm in Southern California. He had horses as his daughter used to ride all the time. Back when there were horse trails. She taught me to ride. I was always going over there to ride a horse. Great memories, my uncle was a minister and also worked for Lockheed. Thanks for all your posts.
I’m mostly a lurker. But when I saw that your first race was Swaps’ S A Derby I had to comment. I have a few strands of hair from Swaps’ mane. A dearly departed friend got a lock of his mane from his groom while he was in Chicago for the match race with Nashua. She gave me a few strands. If cloning ever becomes legal, I can race Swaps II. LOLOL!
That is pretty cool. Swaps is my dads all time favorite horse. Swaps was truly a great race horse, he never has gotten the respect he deserves.
Have a great weekend.
Didn’t appreciate the manner in which owner treated Azeri….. not even a little!
He liked him because his breeding……..how is THAT a good eye?…..Bill certainly is on a victory lap…….all over……
Fortunately, I have you blocked on HRN. Unfortunately, I don’t have the ability to block your rude, disparaging comments on this blog. I see you haven’t changed.
And he/she never will. Suffers from the “Walter Mitty” complex.
Hey Mike, the “Walter Mitty” complex is a great analogy; Stronger than Superman, Wiser than Solomon and Handsomer than Clark Gable. BTW, I noticed you referred to Provet4 has a “he/she. Someone on the HRN blog said that Provet4 is indeed a female. If true, that would be a real shocker to me. Go figure. 🙂
Enjoy your comments Bill. Fact is, individual on blog you’re referring to uses tons of different names to upvote herself/backing up her comments. Fixated always on one trainer – who you can bet never met.
I thought Neigh Sayer was Walter Mitty.
I really think Medina Spirit is going to surprise in the derby. Up close on that early fast pace in the Anita, widest both turns, love the quickening move into the stretch to get up close to Rock, then lived to fight another day the last eight. Steve saying he’s “tough” and has a “sneaky good pedigree” only adds confidence. Solid price play imo.
He is the potential wise guy horse
RUH ROH. We’ve been warned.
Insert gif of balloon popping lol.
I am shocked Bob entered BEZOS in the Lexington…..he didnt really run fast….he won with more to give but………i mentioned his work the other day was amazing…….it must have really impressed Bob…….he would not put him on plane if he didnt really like him……….i’m really shocked he is doing it……interesting
Most likely Prep for the Preakness IMO
Forget the Preakness, Steve. If Bezos wins the Lexington impressively – watch out!! He’ll only need about 5 (?) more defections to get into the Derby. That 26/1 in Pool 2 is going to look mighty sweet! LOL
No shot……nada!
I believe that Weyburn, another Top 20 qualifier is bypassing the Kentucky Derby and targeting the Belmont Stakes.
Jimmy didnt want to run in the Derby even if he won the Wood
With knowledge know that GH wasn’t himself, who did known agenda actually beat? Does it downgrade the performance?
To be honest, I dont know who anyone has beaten
yes
LOL! True! I go back to MS beating HRC who beat the Louisiana Derby field. RYW beat up on MS so your ranking is probably very accurate….
Steve, that is too funny. I find it hilarious reading various posters stating that “such and such” is no good because he’s beaten nobody but “so and so” is the best because he’s my favorite. Lol. No evidence, just subjective opinion. That’s horse racing though. Lol.
Did the injury follow the running of the race? Or was the performance the result of an injury? There’s nothing that’s been written so far to answer that question.
My guess is that it was building up
I believe the injury is better conceived as a repetitive stress related, than as a result of a traumatic incident. Training causes stress on the bones, and Greatest Honor was restressing the bones before they fully recovered from the previous stress, so his bones were gradually building up weakness instead of strengthening through the remodeling.
Good analysis. Often, trainers fob off injury descriptions with various vague terms.
I was 10 years old climbing up onto the roof in the country to adjust the antenna for the TV to watch the final leg of the triple crown in 1973, with a scratchy black and white tv . My Uncle Ellis said this horse is something special. When he won the 3rd leg it was electric and I still remember all 3 races. I was hooked ! And I have followed the Derby and Crown trail ever since. This is the first time since I was 10 years old I’ve felt what I felt then. Rock My World ! He Romps in Derby !
Ellis said he placed a bet on him ( don’t tell anyone … with a “bookie “…in Jersey… Ellis was a break man on the Penn Central Railroad in Jersey. “ Ride The Rails “…..Rocks Grandpa
who knew they had a guy going around saying “take a break…..”…….
Cool!
Ellis passed 30 years ago, but he’s still here. 🙂
That is quite a comparison. I hope he is as special as he’s looked.
Steve H. –
Todd Pletcher has four horse who qualify on KD points as of today. If Saturday’s results do not change the points standings,
is Pletcher expected to run all four in Louisville? Thanks for any info on the subject.
7.5 Furlongs
What’s funny about it is that, even if all four go to the Derby, it won’t be the most he’s ever sent in one year!
Yeah, he ran five and they all finished out of the money.
That can’t be easy to do! 😉 But the next time he sent 5, he got the show with Revolutionary. The rest finished no better than 9th. It seems like when the owners say they want to go to the Derby, he doesn’t try to talk them out of it.
The lesson to be learned is that the creation of a monopoly, or something close to it, in sports or business competition does not guarantee success. I remember several decades ago when a famous race horse owner Nelson Bunker Hunt tried to corner, or monopolize, the market on silver and failed. Later, he declared bankruptcy and sold off his famous race horses to generate liquidity. It took him many years to recover and return to horse racing ownership, but he never reached the level of accomplishment of earlier years.
It’s interesting that the four Pletcher horses were not even close to going off as favorites in their last races, in which they racked up their KD qualifying points. The off odds for the horses were 5-1, 72-1, 15-1, and about 10-1.
Actually, I’m drawn more to the Turfway Park colt, Sainthood, who ran a troubled second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks race. Sainthood is lightly raced with upside. Don’t know much about his race speed figures, but his pedigree is good, but not great. Owned by Winstar and a business partner, if he goes in KD 2021, a good post position will help. He will go off at very high odds, and I will at least take a look at the tote board.
Enticing to a bettor. A nightmare to a writer. No story, no good. Pletcher, WinStar not the human interest angle youre looking for. Would have to dig deep to find one.
The Derby trail, like every competition at the highest level, sometimes looks like a survival race … the survival of the 20 fittest in this case!
If you take Steve’s very first Dozen of the year as a reference you could see that Essential Quality, Medina Spirit and Known Agenda are lasting as Derby entrants. Three horses are out due to injuries (Senor Buscador, Life is Good and Capo Kane (retired)), four horse went off form or were not good enough to get enough points (Keepmeinmind, Smiley Sobotka, Prime Factor and Roman Centurian) and Caddo River still has one opportunity to make it.
So far, those less accomplished horses are replaced by Rock Your World, Concert Tour, Highly Motivated, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Dynamic One, Soup and Sandwich and Bourbonic. The first two did not run last year so they would not be in the initial ranking while the others took advantage of the final 100-point races.
Historically, half of the initial 12 are not able to make it for different reasons being 2012 the most consistent year when ten (10) of the initial Dozen ran in the Derby.
2014 was a year plagued with injuries. Top horses Cairo Prince, Top Billing, Shared Belief, Honor Code, Strong Mandate and Midnight Hawk were forced out of the Trail by injuries. Hoppertunity was not in the initial Dozen as he did not run as a 2-year-old but was an important scratch from the Derby due to a sore foot.
We can say that the welfare of the Derby hopefuls has improved given the mild nature of the injuries this year.
Anyways, the most important message here is that horsemen never take any chances with the health of their horses …!
Never say never. 😉
Steve, thoughts on Highly Motivated’s pedigree? Think he can get the 10 furlongs? Was impressed by him and his numbers from the Bluegrass.
It’s not an ideal 10f pedigree, but not bad enough that he cant win if he’s talented enough. Just not the kind of pedigree I look for in the Derby.
The unfortunate sidelining of Greatest Honour revives the topic of the attrition rate during the Derby Trail.
Young horses are subjected to tremendous stress and strain while training for the Derby. Many horses take on too much physical activity too quickly during the four months leading to the first Saturday in May.
The inability to withstand the stress of training causes the horses to go off form (fatigue), to go ill and/or to suffer injuries.
A good Trainer knows his horses so well that he can promptly spot if something is amiss with them. Shug McGaughey was not happy with Greatest Honour demeanor after the Florida Derby. It has been reported that Greatest Honour’s got stress-related problems in his ankles…
McGaughey’s judiciousness is evident in his statement: “…we came to the decision yesterday that we need to give him some time off, let him grow into himself.”
The son of Tapit should be ready for Saratoga’s Jim Dandy and from there to the Travers…
Is it too much stress and strain with many horses having two, maybe three starts, or too much stress and strain without having a proper 2-year-old foundation? Are our horses prepared for the stress and strain of the Derby trail to start their career without building foundation first? In Greatest Honour’s case he ran 1 1/8 miles then 1 1/16 miles then peaked in January at 1 1/16 miles. Then he regressed a little at 1 1/16 miles then regressed more at 1 1/8 miles. It is imperative that a 3yo does not peak in January. That Holy Bull was too big a race that early in the year, especially having never faced winners before. You cannot maintain that.
I tend to agree that they need that 2 yr old foundation. Would have to try and find the research but some racing at 2 helps build the bones if I recall the article correctly. Don’t expect to see another Secretariat getting HOY at the age of 2 but good works in the morning are just not the same as racing in the afternoon. Sure they school them in the gate and the paddock to get them ready but it’s still a different experience for them come race day.
Absolutely right! Going back to 2000, not a single Derby winner won a major stakes prep in January. (Nyquist won the 7f San Vicente on 2/15/16; California Chrome won the state-bred Cal Cup Derby on 1/25/14; Smarty Jones won the ungraded Count Fleet on 1/3/04 and the ungraded Southwest on 2/28/04.]
Well done, and certainly not a stakes race that impressively with such fast sped figures/
A mile and a quarter test for colts in the Spring of their 3yo year… with all the stress and pitfalls to just apply pressure to the breed. This is really the very paramount point of what we choose to involve ourselves here today… So Century’s later it is still the process of making the breed.
Men of means and vision have gone before us with this overarching principle and objective in mind.
The equine families restricted, charted and managed through the studbook is your empirical evidence of their overall intent to seize mother nature’s living clay and thru human will and resource throw a living art form to honor here on Earth… and it intrigues us still today. Are you not entertained? Be still and revel in time.
What??
Blake says: What?… So may I suggest the light snack of Tony Morris accompanied by a chilled bottle of Tony Morris both off menu items… And… desert? … Tony Morris of course.
Steve, if Concert Tour performs the equivalent of a game-winning 575-ft grand slam homer in the bottom of the ninth inning in a World Series, I won’t envy your dilemma. If you move CT up, does the champ EQ drop to 4th? Maybe you should rank them as 1A, 1B, 1C, and 1D, with the group of longshots starting at #5. The top 4 are the only ones so far that have a good (i.e., reasonable) shot at winning the Derby. Ranking any of them as #3 or #4 would be an injustice. Just a suggestion….
If you allow me to do that I definitely will. I cannot see myself dropping EQ any further. But I have no idea what I’m going to do. I am pulling a Scarlet O’Hara. I’ll worry about that tomorrow. Tomorrow’s another day.
Someone should tell Mrs. Haskin to take down the drapes….. Steve’s in a flighty mood. LOL
Frankly, Dewey, I dont give a damn.
Well, la de da! He’s gone…. “gone with the wind”.
I allow it! LOL
Aaaaarrrrrrrgggghhhhh! Just saw Shug decided to pull Greatest Honour from the Derby and give him 60 days off. I really liked that horse, although I’d also like him to have a long career and longer life. On a brighter note, just spotted a pileated woodpecker in my side yard.
That is exciting, especially when you hear them, too. Magnificent birds. You must have lots of mature trees.
We sure heard one hammering. So loud the one we could see flew away.
Used to have a lot of them where I used to live. They looked very awkward to me when they flew through my woods. You may have some of the smaller breeds around as well.
Yes, Laura, we have five different kinds of woodpeckers we’ve seen here in the New York Catskills: Downy, Hairy, Flicker, Red Belly, and pileated. Almost as rare and beautiful as Steve’s top five!
Downy, Hairy, Flicker, Red Belly, and Pileated. There’s a good joke in there, but I’m not up to the task.
Think on it a while. It may come to you!
Hello Steve, Proxy with Johnny V. aboard drew perfectly PP7 in a field of 10 in the Lexington. Proxy should be forward with his tactical speed and when given the cue by Johnny V. should dominate this field and punch his ticket to Louisville.
He is certainly the class of the field. He just has to get rid of that bearing out. This is not about getting points; he has enough. This is all about how much he can improve professionally
If Godolphin can pass the Kentucky Derby with Rebel’s Romance there wouldn’t be much hope for Proxy unless the colt wins overwhelmingly. Essential Quality looks more than capable of winning the Derby for them especially with the withdrawal of Greatest Honour.
I’m baffled that in a year like this Godolphin passes on the Derby with RR. If They’re putting all their eggs in the EQ basket they’re going to be disappointed!
Dominate? I think Proxy should be the favorite, but by no means is he a lock. Michael Stidham doesn’t seem to have a lot of confidence in him.. that’s why he’s in this race; he wants Proxy to prove he belongs. Just by what he’s saying, it seems the colt is on the lazy side.
The horse I’ve been waiting on is in here…….Unbridled Honor. Per Todd, he’s still figuring things out, but he is doing well. I loved the way he closed in the Tampa Bay Derby, and I think he has more improvement in him. I won’t predict that he’s going to win, but I think he’s going to run a big race.
Betsy, did you notice that Ethical Judgement is in race 4. at Keeneland on Saturday. Good luck.
I haven’t heard the diagnosis on Greatest Honour but he didn’t look like the same horse in his last race. it sucks, but is also good he is getting the needed time off including pasture time which more should have anyway. Brown should just go with Highly Motivated even if the others have the points. I think Caddo River will be in. Pletcher could win this year, not seeing a Baffert win. Rock Your World is just getting started and could be tough to beat and is the one most likely to win by 5+ lengths. Otherwise it is anyone’s guess unless there is a standout from Oaklawn. I do not like losing Greatest Honour. He is tremendous when healthy and was a Triple Crown threat. Enjoy the grazing big boy.
With GH not able to run in the KD, if your gambling the race, all other contenders odds have been shortened. I wouldn’t dismiss Baffert’s horse CT. As Steve has said, Baffert thought CT was top dog in his barn. CT and RYW are my top picks but at what odds?
That is true Jeff. If Concert Tour is awesome on Sat I would probably change my mind. I see them letting Caddo River run his race this time, and I see him winning. I would be surprised if Caddo doesn’t at least get second and gets into the Derby. Whether he is a need the lead or not you have to let him run his race. If he burns out that is his problem, but if he does get the lead he relaxes giving him a better chance of carrying his speed. Only six horses but I am excited about this race. If Concert Tour doesn’t get an easy lead, which he won’t we’ll see how he does. I think he is quite capable of stalking though and I think that is what he will do. Anyone other than those two for the win would surprise me unless it is real fast early and is a duel and neither can last but I don’t see that either. I hope Caddo romps but another dogfight wouldn’t bother me. CR or CT wins.
Issue is with his ankles and will not require surgery. Dr. Bramlage, Shug and the owners came to the decision that a 60 day layoff was in the colt’s best interest.
Thanks Lynda.
I was looking at Candy Ride’s races, he changed leads throughout, too—he also had speed and stamina….like Rock Your World…..Candy Ride is one of the few brilliant racehorses that sired his brilliance, I’m talking about Shared Beluef and Gun Runner…..
Lanes End made a compilation of Candy Ride’s three wins in North America, and the similarities are staring you in the face!
Gosh I miss Shared Belief. One of the few who stole my heart.
Mine too. I literally cried when he died.
I was there at Charlestown for his last race. Right on the rail and when Mike was carrying the saddle back he was fighting back the tears. Left after that race and have never been back.
Loved that video, they have a compilation of Twirling Candy too. In the Del Mar Derby he had trouble switching leads, but won anyway.
Game Winner too! 2YO champ
So Proxy with 34 points is now #20 after the defection of Rebel’s Romance and Greatest Honour. I’m certain there will be more dropping out — maybe Mandaloun if he doesn’t impress Brad Cox in workouts; Weyburn, Crowded Trade, and Rombauer are other possibilities for opting out. Defections could be offset by the results in the Ark Derby and the Lexington, but there’s still hope for O Besos.
I’ll be using Rombauer in my Derby exotics. He was coming from behind in the Bluegrass, and there wasn’t pace…perhaps they’ll tire chasing after Rock Your World, perhaps Rombauer and Known Agenda will benefit…..I’m starting to think about how the race will be run, no more soft leads in Louisville!
It’s always tough to predict the pace and the positions, especially before the draw. But Rombauer is an excellent choice to hit the tri.
I’m thinking not so hard to figure the pace THIS year—20 horses tend to have pace, but a horse like Rock can stave off the other up-front horses, and make the closers more attractive, I’m thinking a 3-horse box of Rock, Rombauer and Known Agenda…..its still early, but I love to throw out scenarios!
Rombauer’s trainer said they may go straight to the Preakness. The horse earned an automatic berth with the win in the El Camino Real Derby.
O Besos if he gets in has a huge shot at the three or four slot underneath the top 4.. Mandaloun a total throw out so hoping the O gets in. Proxy needs to show some professionalism if he has any hope to run underneath in the Derby.
Yes, if he gets in O Besos is another closer who may benefit from Rock fending off the other pace types….of course Essential Quality can come from behind, too.
I doubt Rombauer will drop out. He looks like your typical 30-1 Derby runner-up
Hello Steve, I just read a DRF article stating that Proxy still might run in the KY Derby if he wins the Lexington. Johnny V. will retain the mount and Proxy looks like the horse to beat. I will be rooting for Proxy to get the win and Godolphin sends him to the Derby off of that win. Best case scenario for Proxy would be a convincing win on Saturday, news that he will go to the Derby, and finally Johnny V. keeping the Derby mount on Proxy. Johnny V. already rides Medina Spirit and Souo and Sanswich who are both Derby bound.
I said in my comment above this will be his one final shot to get into the Derby. At first they werent going, but then Stidham texted me they were going in the Lexington. The only reason to run is to see if he can straighten himself out and earn his way into the Derby.
Maybe Proxy gets it together as he hugely disappointed with his last when I thought he should have been a tight 1-2 with the winner. Maybe he can reprise my all time Lexington favourite Charismatic but still see Proxy as an underneath filler behind the Haskin top 4.
Watch out for Rombauer, he ran a sneaky good race in the Bluegrass. I hope Proxy wins the Lexington and Caddo River wins the Arkansas Derby and go on to Kentucky
If Caddo beats Concert Tour it’s the huge upset of the Derby trail. He looks like a Grade 3 miler where the owner has Derby fever.
CR is not a miler.
Wonder what that makes CT?
Hello Steve, bad news that Greatest Honour is out of the Derby. I was surprised to read that if Proxy wins the Lexington he is still unlikely for the KY Derby. I hope Proxy wins the Lexington in convincing fashion and Godolphin sends him to the Derby. Rebel’s Romance is pointed to the Belmont and you would think that Godolphin would want 2 strong contenders in Louisville.
Hey, Joe! Proxy and Mandaloun are my last hopes for the future wager, and I have little hope for Mandy. Do you remember that Charismatic was a distant 4th in the SA Derby, then won the Lexington convincingly with a 108 BSF and a 104 Brisnet rating? Someone should tell Stidham and Godolphin. 😉
GO DOLPHINS!
If he wins the Lexington impressively I’m sure he’ll run in the Derby.
Oh…I didn’t know that Proxy was entered in the Lexington. Now I know!
Hello Eddie, Looks like it’s Proxy or bust on our Future Wagers. I am glad Proxy keeps Johnny V. for the Lexington because he knows the horse and Proxy should handle that field and get the win. Proxy may be your best chance to cash because Mandaloun will have to run big in the Derby after a dull effort in the LA Derby. Proxy has always fired in his races, even the 4th in the LA Derby was a good effort, losing only by 3 lengths. Getting squeezed at the start IMO caused Proxy a better placing in the LA Derby. for Proxy on Saturday Eddie!
Git it done, Prox!
After watching Bourbonic win at 72-1, I looked up his pedigree….and that was all I needed to see! Would love to see Calumet have another Derby winner.
I go into his pedigree in detail on Monday
I look forward to reading that column!!
Hi Steve
I was wondering if Rock Your World’s Thoro-Graph number has been determined yet, just as a comparison to the other speed figures that are as follows;
Timeform: 124
Equibase: 103
Bris: 102
Beyer: 100
Thanks Steve
Not yet but I texted Jerry Brown to get an idea and it looks like it’s going to be slower than I thought, so this is one time I’m going to go by the pure speed figs that you listed. I knew about the Timeform fig which is a huge number, much faster than the Blue Grass (118), which is still pretty fast.
Maybe you texted the former governor of California by mistake. He doesn’t get much attention these days, so he figured he would answer even though he knows nothing about horse racing.
Hilarious.
Thanks for the reply Steve
BTW, I’m not that familiar on how to interpret Thoro-Graph numbers, is there any chance you could give a brief explanation on how Thoro-Graph numbers are configured? I’m not sure if “configured” is the correct word, but I think you get the drift of my question.
Many thanks Steve.
Rock Your World and Known Agenda….Rock because he’s the best in the front group and Known cuz he best out of the closer group…..Rock could take them all the way but if not–I think you look to the closers…I see Bezos is in the Lexington, Bob’s working on a foursome!
Interesting, what has Bezos done since his initial flop?
Do you really think 20 points is going to get in the Derby? The only horse in the Lexington who can get in the Derby with a win is Hockey Dad, who has 20 points. Unbridled Honor has 5 points and I dont know if 25 points can get him in. It would take several no shows. O Besos has the same 25 points
Todd Pletcher said on Steve Byk’s show last week that the Derby is not the goal for Unbridled Honor.
Here we go again! Greatest Honour off the Derby trail. In all probability there will be more defections in the next 24 days. It happens every year with the breed being more fragile…. where’s the damn bubble wrap???
I was not happy to hear that.
Shug is known for this. We have to trust his judgment though.
He had no choice,as very well know. I’m never concerned about this trainer enacting the correct decision,cause he always does what’s best.
Steve – Yes I’m still here…..hunkered down during this “lost” year…thanks for asking. But as Paula said, I still follow you regularly. As with you, I was blown away by Rock Your World’s Santa Anita Derby performance. The “breakout” prediction in your week 11 blog was prescient! His raw speed, multiple gears, ability to switch leads seamlessly, flexibility, focus, long stride, and stamina all signal something special, as you said. Speaking of his pedigree, I must point out that he has 27 connections to Man o’ War – one of the highest numbers in that regard. And in fact, in all the years I’ve been following your “Derby Dozen” I don’t recall another horse going from being unranked in your week 8 blog to #1 in your week 12 blog!! With the rest of this strong field of 3 year olds (even with Life is Good out of the picture), it sets up what hopefully will be a memorable Derby! Keep up the great work! Best, Dave
So great to see you again. Thanks for returning for the party. I did have Rock ranked #7 in Week 9 off 2 grass race when most people didnt know anything about him. So I fl good about that. sometimes a horse just looks different and special and you go by your gut feeling. Now we just have to see just how special he is if hes to win the Derby off only 3 starts. He is exciting, though. Hope to see you back here.
Nice to know about the Man O War in the pedigree.
Welp, GH is out now. This sucks.
I saw. 60 days. Only the good horses get hurt. Whatever it is is minor. Who’s next?
No cause listed- bone bruising?
What a bummer!
UGH!!!!! My two favorite horses now are out of the KD… feel bad for SHUG!!! bummer….
Steve, I don’t believe that Rosario will let JUST Caddo River get the early lead. Seems to me that Get Her Number will need to rediscover his early speed in the second race after a long layoff. With CR and GHN fighting it out early, Concert Tour should have no excuse if he doesn’t blow by them in the stretch.
Concert Tour will be right off his flank, Wont let him get a clear lead.
I agree with that. But if CR and GHN duel for the lead, I think that the Tour will sit behind them by a length or a length and a half.
Dont put it past Baffert to send Hozier after CR
Best to see what you have in a prep than finding out what you haven’t in the big dance. Wouldn’t it be fun if we had a “Wood Memorial” finish in the Arkansas Derby.
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned, either by commentators and broadcasters live, or in post-race analysis, is how far Highly Motivated came over coming down the lane, causing EQ to move over at least two paths as he was trying to get by. There was no contact made, just race riding, but it makes me appreciate EQ’s effort in the Bluegrass even more. The past couple of weekends had some fantastic efforts by “sleepers,” and it makes for a much more exciting race in anticipation. Thanks, as always, for your knowledgeable analysis, Steve, and for the opportunity to chime in!
You apparently didnt read my comment above, but as you will read I believe it helped Essential Quality because he wasnt going by Highly Motivated until he drifted out. The reasoning is in HM’s comment.
You are right, I hadn’t read what you wrote about Highly Motivated, only about Essential Quality. I went back to take a look. In the moment, I thought it might be a little gamesmanship, but maybe it did help EQ more than hurt him.
Hi, Profsdottir. After your comment, I took another look at the BG. Movement in the stretch is easy to determine due to the rail shadow. But it seems to me that both horses were drifting out slightly…simultaneously. I didn’t see HM cause EQ to drift out. The head-on view would be more telling.
I kept hoping for a head-on, but it looks like there wasn’t one (or they didn’t broadcast or save the head-on). It did look to me in the moment like Saez had to redirect him a little to avoid making contact. Hard to say, though.
Go to the Thoroughbred Daily News website. In their archives option click Sunday, April 4, there is a video option at the end of the Blue Grass Stakes write up. The video offers Pan, Head-On, and HD Pan.
Even though Steve confirmed they went slow early in the Bluegrass, the splits in the second half of the race are too strong to deny, especially battling head to head. So Essential Quality is my Derby horse at this point.
Rock Your World certainly rocked my world. That was impressive! Love his pedigree and his looks. Just a bit of trivia (forgive please if already mentioned). His dam goes back to Majestic Prince who won the Santa Anita Derby and went into the Derby undefeated. He went on to win the Preakness and placed second in the Belmont (he was racing with an injury and I think it was the only race he lost). I remember Majestic Prince….LOL. I am just that old.
Always hard for me to come up with more than 4 or 5 on a list.
I think the winner will come from Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie or Greatest Honor.
Been reading your column every week, just do not comment much. So appreciate all the work you put into it!
Hope everyone had a nice weekend and had the opportunity to spend time with family and friends.
Thanks for commenting. Stop by anytime.
Really good list and my friend “100 Lengths” thought you did an awesome job on this write up.
I agree. I like your list and I agree with your #1 pick, RYW. He was really, really impressive. He had a lot
left in the tank after the finish line. On the other hand, Essential Quality has me concerned. He won
and it was a gutsy win, but I expected him to dominate like RYW did. There are different ways to look
at the race, so I am putting EQ #2 on my list since I just don’t know if this will set him up for the
Derby or if it is a sign he has peaked too soon. I have Concert Tour #3. I am very impressed with this
horse and he should win on Saturday easily. Any Baffert horse that can run as fast as this horse, is
a potential Derby winner. Then I have Known Agenda and after him, Greatest Honour.
I am not giving up in Greatest Honour ar all. If his jockey has him placed better, I think he has a shot
still. But as people keep telling me, he is a little slow out of the gate and in a 20 horse field that could
be a real problem (along with his come from behind style). He has to be more forwardly placed even if he is
wide. He has shown he can win wide.
Forgot Hot Rod Charlie- I will put him after Greatest Honour.
whatever happened to 100 Lengths. Never comes around anymore
He doesn’t miss even one of your posts. He reads them all. He makes sure every Tuesday
to let me know his thoughts on your posts (he really likes them and thinks you are the sport’s
greatest historian). I will ask him to think about posting again.
Are you his llaison? Lol
How are you Paula?
Mike, I am so glad to see you back! I am doing well. Got over Covid pneumonia
in January and just glad to still be here. Still love horse racing and it was my
saving grace when I was sick. I hope you are doing well. Please keep posting. You
have been missed by many including me.
Appreciate the kind words and noticed your comments months ago regarding Covid. Very glad to know you’re on the way back. We never had a cross word in dozen yrs and honestly telling you the other site is controlled by one psycho with tons of names that promotes one trainer. Wasn’t exactly given a choice over yr ago.
Raise your hand if youre still waiting for Provet’s mystery horse he likes.
Oh Steve, that’s hilarious!! Yeah don’t hold your breath. My prediction is the “Pro” will tell us his derby pick on May 1st at around 6:50ET!
I literally laughed out loud at that!! You could do stand up, Steve.
Hand raised.
But then it won’t be a mystery!
Waiting for hell to freeze over, pigs to fly, when the fat lady sings…….yes, my hand is raised.
The real mystery is what happened to Coldfacts!!
Why the sarcasm? How many things do i have to be right on?…..tell me. Have any of the “bad signs ” horses won? Who has been more right than me? Was i right about LIG? Do i put down others picks?
Have any of my “not a derby horse” horses won?
Be specific in your “times i was wrong”…….
The only comment you probably didnt like, was after the Fl. derby……people were saying how “right” you are …….i pointed out your #4 horse won and your #1 horse lost…..
I never put down your “list” because it is just a “list”………
Life is Good hasn’t lost. What were you right about? So…say he wins ten straight, and then he runs a dud, will THAT mean you’re right? As fas as not putting down other people ARE YOU KIDDING????
You are a Monday morning quarterback, you post AFTER races, rarely before….
NOT RIGHT?
Dont be so sensitive. You said you had a horse you like and would tell everyone who it was. I was merely wondering when you were going to tell us. You must realize you always tell us who you dont like, but never who you do like, so as I said last week I am looking forward to finding out who you actually like. I know there is another blog you comment frequently on, so just waiting for you to make a brief appearance on here.
Don’t worry, pv. A professional horseplayer doesn’t make a selection until a race has been drawn. We should expect your selection any time between Tuesday, April 27, and posttime.
You are definitely our King Solomon, although he did say he had his horse and it wasnt one of the favorites.
LOL. I was just reminding him about his professional oath.
The fake “pro” can’t pick a winner even if it hit him in the face and fell into his lap.
His go to handicapping method is, the post time chalk + highest Beyer figure
He said he had a horse who was not among the favorites…Just waiting to see who it is.
We all would like to know, me included. I love it when people find reasons to back horses who are not others’ faves to win. More food for thought. There’s always an angle.
Exactly!
Enjoy your comments Zany.
What a privilege it is to be able to read your insights about breeding, racing and over all history to this sport I follow. Can’t thank those enough responsible for continuing on this format leading up to the 1st Saturday in May. Your comments about Known Agenda remind me of the Pletcher horse you liked a couple years back in the BC Classic at SA who ran true to your thinking that day. Again, thank you for all the insight.
That is very kind of you, Liam. Thank you so much. Yes, he does remind me on Vino Rosso who I refused to take down from the No. 1 spot despite everyone loving Justify, so I was way too early on him. Known Agenda I have like since last year. Thanks again for your kind words.
dont think you will get better than 9-2 on him derby day….he will get that much attention after that , almost all time Santa Anita Derby effort. plus all the slow other horses overall and the EQ not hardly beating a mile horse.
I think people are very very wrong if they think Rock your World will not be co favored or very very close second choice. just sayin. dont think you will see 9-2 on him.
You never know in a 20-horse field. There have been Derby favorites who were higher than 9-2. If Concert Tour romps Saturday we could have three horses very close together for favoritism.
And sometimes you’re just baffled by the post-time favorite. Improbable!
you are baffled……because he lost….
“you are baffled…..because he lost….”
I have no idea what that means. Improbable was an improbable favorite because he had lost his last TWO races. He was the first favorite in modern Derby history to have lost his last two races. Did YOU expect the post-time betting favorite in 2019 to be Improbable?
Oh…I get ya. You thought I was saying it was baffling that the post-time favorite lost. No. What I meant to say was it was baffling that the post-time favorite was Improbable, who had lost his last two races.
I am hearing that Rock Your World is not going to get as fast a Thoro-Graph number as I had hoped, so it may be back to the drawing board and reevaluate everything, but I still like RYW a lot. Thats what I need, more confusion.
Why won’t he get a fast number?
Just not as fast a race as I thought and Medina lost enough ground to get as fast a number as the winner.
Gee, and I was thinking I would make RYW my pick. Do we have that number yet, Steve?
Add his Brisnet Late Pace figure to that news. Just discovered it was 91. Essential Quality’s was 106.
what was middle pace figure
E1 106
E2 110
I have a feeling those are the best E1/E2 numbers so far for final preps.
I figured they were strong. He looks like the type of horse that can run his field off their feet early. Of course you like a bit faster than 91 late.
Yup. Only one Derby winner in the last 20 years had a LP number below 95. That horse was….SURPRISE!…Mine That Bird with a 79.
The Arkansas Derby appears to be a re-run of the Rebel Stakes with Concert Tour primed to remain undefeated.
If the son of Street Sense wins this Saturday, he will be the third undefeated horse in the Derby. This then would be the first Derby ever with 3 unbeaten horses.
There have been 25 Derbies with at least one undefeated horse and a total of 30 entered since 1915. That year the Hall of Famer filly Regret won the Derby in her 3-year-old debut. She had won 3 times in 1914 all at Saratoga.
Six out of the 11 undefeated horses in the Derbies before 1980 are in the Hall of Fame: Bimelech, Coaltown, Native Dancer, Majestic Prince and Seattle Slew. All were the favorites with the first three coming in second.
But let’s move to this Century and see how the unbeaten horses have fared in the Derby.
Eleven (11) Derbies have seen at least one undefeated horse since 2000 as shown below.
Year Horse Wins Trainer Derby Finish
2000 China Visit 2 Said Bin Suroor 6
2000 Trippi 4 Todd Pletcher 11
2004 Smarty Jones 6 JOHN C. SERVIS 1
2006 Showing Up 3 Barclay Tagg 6
2006 Barbaro 5 MICHAEL R. MATZ 1
2007 Curlin 3 Steve Asmussen 3
2008 Big Brown 3 RICHARD E. DUTROW, JR. 1
2012 Gemologist 5 Todd Pletcher 16
2013 Verrazano 4 Todd Pletcher 14
2015 Dortmund 6 Bob Baffert 3
2015 Materiality 3 Todd Pletcher 6
2016 NYQUIST 7 DOUGLAS F. O’NEILL 1
2018 Magnum Moon 4 Todd Pletcher 19
2018 JUSTIFY 3 Bob Baffert 1
2019 *Maximum Security 4 Jason Servis 1
*DQ
If you were to exclude the 5 Pletcher’s horses, you could see that there are 6 undefeated winners in 9 Derbies, with 2 thirds (Curlin and Dortmund) and 2 sixth places (China Visit and Showing Up). Curlin lost to the 2-year-old Champion, Street Sense, and the outstanding Hard Spun. Dortmund was no match to the unrivaled American Pharoah and the game Firing Line.
The only winners with 3 prior starts were Big Brown and Justify. The average starts for the winners is 4.6 with Nyquist being the winningest with 7.
These numbers bode well for the chances of Essential Quality, Concert Tour and Rock Your World in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
Sorry Eddie F ! What are your future bets again?
Holy cow Nelson, do you work for Elias Sports Bureau? How did you come up with all that? You must have some program in your data base. That is pretty awesome.
LOL … I got many spread sheets with Derby fun facts…!
Thanks again for providing us with the space to share some of those files here…
Space is easy. Compiling those stats is a lot harder. Thank you for sharinng them
Does Helium factor at all.
Depends if you feel he can overcome so much history against him
Ohhh Yes Laval… I completely forgot about the son of Ironicus with 3 for 3… thank you so much for the reminder… 4 undefeated horses would be even more remarkable …
let’s see what Caddo River and Hosier have to say about Concert Tour’s immaculate record…
You are welcome and thank you, Nelson, for the history/data. Steve, much respect. You are tops. Plain and simple.
Thanks very much
Hey! Thank you for asking about my FWs. I won’t forget it, Nelson! But I’ll tell you anyway. I had to refer to my bet sheet (not to be confused with my bed sheet) because I had blocked the names from my mind. Here they are:
Jan. 24
Sleepy 40-1
Grumpy 42-1
Feb. 14
Bashful 41-1
Mar. 7
Sleepy 41-1
Dopey 42-1
Also, please excuse my ignorance, but why did you offer to “exclude the 5 Pletcher horses” in your analysis of undefeated Derby runners?
LOL … Sleepy should be 2 to 1…!
Pletcher’s horses are outliers finishing in the tail end of the chart (except Materiality) … seems like his horses peak in April just because the target is to win in that month… i.e. being running in the Derby the priority over actually winning it… anyways, If you take into account the Pletcher years then the (yearly) striking rate for undefeated horses would shrink from 75% to 60%
OK. Nevertheless, I will include the Pletcher horses in the calculations. Did you notice that the first three winners on your list were trained by Derby first timers? Servis, Matz, and Dutrow.
Yes Eddie … your observation puts Brad Cox and his undefeated Champion in good light…!
INDEED!
BTW, I made an error in listing my FWs. I didn’t bet Sleepy a second time. That should be Sneezy on March 7.
Great post Nelson. The moral of that post though is that Pletcher has had 5 unbeatens contest the Derby, he has finished 11, 16, 14, 6, & 9.
LOL
Last year: 3 prime contenders….this year there are EIGHT, with a few others with a small shot…..if you can unlock the puzzle you are going to get paid!!!!!
I see five prime contenders then a gap to about three or four horses who have a shot
Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Concert Tour, Hot Rod Charlue, Medina Spirit, Rock Your World, Essential Quality, Highly Motivated are eight that I consider prime contenders…..
With those eight I can see a 5-1 race favorite.
Matthew, you must have an expansive view of the word “prime.” :-)) But seriously, I’d consider a prime contender as one that has at least a 10% chance of winning. In my bloodshot view, I see KA, EQ, CT, and RTW as “prime.” About Medina Spirit…in watching the replay of the SA Derby, I thought he looked very tired in the stretch.
Steve, I really enjoy reading your comments. Semi retirement seems to agree with you. Anyway I think the track at SA was a bit speed favoring on Saturday. In mdn sp wt , Laurel River ran early splits of 21.3 and 44.1 and still opened up in the stretch to win by 4. I know he was working well in the a.m. as in one of his workouts he held his own with Medina Spirit. But still. The Derby compared favorably with the only other 2 turn race on the day. A bunch of allowance maybe grade 3 types that are capable of mid 90s on a good day. But the one two finishers ran their own match race and were separated by a head at the wire. Nobody closed. RYW had an extremely fast first quarter before settling and running them off their feet. So.some of that had to be track aided
Secondly just reviewed PPs for past Derby winners and what sticks out right off the bat is how many of these horses routinely hit 100 or more Beyer numbers. Looking good with a slow number like Shug’s horse is not going to cut it unless you get a scenario like the Wood Memorial. Somebody help NY!
I was trying to see if wind was a factor but at Keeneland EVERBODY came home fast. The fastest half mile all day was 45 and 4. The oaks came home faster than the Blue Grass albeit off a lot slower early pace. But I still like to see my horse in a dogfight prior to the big dance. Remember Barbaro and Silver Charm? I vividly remember Baffert commenting that after American Pharaoh’s hard race in the Derby that he is now fit for the rest of the crown. And that’s after this horse ran routine triple digits leading into the Derby.
Sadly the Arkansas Derby will be such a walkover as I still believe Concert Tour will be a fitting plan B for Baffert.
Great post!
All great points, Ian. Thank you. I take it Essential Quality is your Derby horse and I certainly cant argue with that. RYW may have been aided by the track, but I still have liked everyting I’ve seen from him. Sure I’m taking a shot, as Ive been on him big-time for several weeks, snd even longer for Known Agenda. EQ is the only logical pick, but I’m just not into logical this year, Lol
Steve and others thanks for the kind feedback. I can’t say that I have Essential Quality as my to pick as yet. Looking forward to see Concert Tour this weekend first.
Nice observations Ian…!
It was precisely Laurel River’s fractions what was driving how to assign speed figures to Rock Your World … I was expecting better numbers for RYW.
It was a very tiring track at Santa Anita when Medina Spirit won the Robert B. Lewis but last Saturday was completely different.
Perhaps these track variants are just not accurately accounted for but we have always the eye test to gauge how good a young horse is.
Ian, you are seein’ things clearly. I don’t have the BSFs, but the Brisnet history says your horse should be able to reach triple digits in at least one of the final two preps. In regard to a stretch duel as a conditioner in the final prep, you can add I’ll Have Another, Super Saver, Street Sense, Funny Cide, Grindstone, and Lil E. Tee to your recollections of Barbaro and Silver Charm.
Hopefully there is room for some devil’s advocacy with regard to Rock Your World. I noticed that a Starter Allowance race on the SA Derby card had virtually the identical fractions and final time, albeit at a mile, as RYW. Also RYW’s turn time was only average. So to paraphrase Dennis Green go ahead and crown RYW if you like but I’m not sold. Maybe I need to watch the gallop outs. If we’re comparing races on a card, comparing the Wood to the Gazelle at the same distance, the Gazelle went faster. The Wood outcome was unbelievably weak. In most of the preps you can throw out everybody but the winner, but in the Wood it’s all of them.
I cant argue with you Jerry. I can pick apart all the horses with the possible exception of Essential Quality. Rock Your World is strictly gut feeling and eye test. As for the time comparisons, you wouldnt think he would get a 100 Beyer with a starter allowance race equally as good, so I dont know what to make of anything this year. I am waiting for the Thoro-Graph numbers to come in before taking the next step. But I do appreciate all your data.
I like the horses in the Wood better than the others, from a cheering standpoint. I think a few of them will pan out as race horses and Bourbonic and Dynamic One won’t be last in the Derby, in my opinion, they could finish in the top 10 on a faster surface and with all the front runners+/- the pace will be fast giving closers a chance. Bourbonic has an excellent pedigree.
The Wood has beeen dumped on by so many people it kind of makes you want to look at it more closely
I’m surprised nobody has said that the Wood is rotting.
Or its time to hold a memorial service for the Wood.
🙂 Well, fortunately you and I have said those things.
They have the snazziest winner’s cooler though. Looks like a Secretariat check pattern but in blue and green, very sharp looking on Bourbonic.
OK. I guess that makes up for the rot.
Wood that we could.
I knew you would say that.
Can I also add an old cliché, ‘I don’t think I saw the winner of the Kentucky Derby in the Santa Anita Derby nor in the Wood Memorial.’
At the conclusion of the Santa Anita Derby, a friend of mine texted me. I could read her excitement between every word: “I just found my Derby horse.” Rock Your World clearly rocked hers. It was an impressive performance. If he, Concert Tour, Essential Quality, and Known Agenda make it to the race, I believe it will be quite the spectacle.
A late question left over from Saturday’s result: What were Allbaugh Family Stable/Dale Romans thinking with their management of Sittin On Go? After two horrible efforts following the layoff from 2 to 3, they put him in the Blue Grass Stakes and the result is hardly surprising. So now he’s had poor races in five successive graded stakes at distances longer than 1 mile. I’ve got an idea. If it’s not too late for the colt’s psyche, get him in a 7-furlong race.
Dale Romans has a tendency to ignore bad races and always thinks is horses are going to bounce back especially when they tease you by working as good as this horse has worked
I get that, if it’s ONE bad race. But he’s ignoring reality in this case. It’s like Knicks fans always thinking that NEXT year will be the turnaround.
I think they did the horse a great disservice by pushing on with him. He needed to be reevaluated.
D Wayne told Dale that he’s won a million dollars running horses where they don’t belong
Steve what’s your gut on Rebels Romance coming over? I mean if there is a year this is the year.
My gut feeling is that they are probably leaning against it, but they still have Proxy who likely will run in the Lexington Stakes. If he doesnt run well and they only have Essential Quality they might feel Rebel would be an excellent second horse to have in there, and Sheikh Mo has always wanted to win the Derby with a Dubai-based horse, so I wouldnt rule it out once they think about it. To win the Derby with a grandson of Dubai Millennium and Street Cry seems awfully hard to pass up
This year’s crop has me scratching my head, I must admit. My one and only future bet is kaput now that Roman Centurian is officially out, though I expected it after the scratch. Even I wouldn’t have bet him in Arkansas after that.
Here we are again with a handfull of horses that all like to be forwardly placed as the top choices going in. For me, the Derby has come down to which speed horse can rate. That’s tough to figure out.
If I had to pick today, I reluctantly might have to take Known Agenda. I say reluctantly because I was never a fan. For one, if Todd can go one-two in the Wood with a claimer and a maiden winner, how much better is his best horse. Todd is getting hot.
Also, I liked the way Known Agenda was finishing with energy. He looked like a different horse.
I think all the “speed” horses can rate and would rather rate, which makes it even more confusing.
The comment above and your reply remind me of your analysis of midnight bourbon where you said his secret weapon is that he would not let a horse pass him and if he is ahead at the top of the stretch it would be very tough for anyone to pass them because he would not let them go by. If all the really strong Derby contenders all want to rate and no one wants to go to the lead, wouldn’t that leave open your scenario as a possibility where midnight bourbon goes to the front and doesn’t want anybody to go buy him?
Most defnitely. If he goes to the lead I dont see anyone trying to take it away from him.
Aren’t you going with CT???
Roman Centurian is NOT entered in the Ark Derby. Meaning…no Kentucky Derby for him.
1 Super Stock, Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2 Caddo River, Florent Geroux
3 Hozier, Martin Garcia
4 Get Her Number, Francisco Arrieta
5 Concert Tour, Rosario
6 Last Samurai, Jon Court
No 3yo graded stakes winners other than Concert Tour. (Get Her Number won the G1 American Pharoah in September.)
This is really a terrible field. Concert Tour should by 1-5.
A million dollar race? Nobody will step up and try their hand? Crazy
There is nobody left. The good Oaklawn based horses all went to Fair Grounds and there are no more Derby horses left…anywhere.
Great! Now Concert Tour and Essential Quality can share the favorite role….John Sadler can prepare his horse for the big race, an outside draw would be nice, and he can run them off their feet…..deep closers can pick up the pieces, I rarely bet trifecta or superfecta, but the Kentucky Derby calls for such wagers, and I think this year it might all work out—Life is Good is out, there was going to be a big question of his ability to get the distance, like Uncle Mo, fast times but big questions….Rock Your World does not have that question, it looks like 10 furlongs will be even better for him.
With the lack of depth in this years crop; I think a triple crown had a greater probability it might happen. The two horses in my eyes that could achieve this are: RYW or CT. Both will develop even more through the trail so long they stay healthy.
Concert Tour, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Highly Motivated, Medina Spirit—-EIGHT prime contenders for the win, that’s MORE than usual!
Like CR here for the win. Drawing line through his last race.
Hey, Steve and gang! First off, I thought I’d report the latest Brisnet speed ratings just released. I wish that Brisnet would give out the the pace numbers, too. Following Hot Rod Charlie’s 96 and Known Agenda’s 101 in previous weeks, on Saturday we had both Essential Quality and Rock Your World earning 102 and Bourbonic getting a 94. Good luck to any runner that didn’t earn triple digits in at least one of his final two preps, historically speaking. The Wood was ridiculous, and I think it may have laid to rest any hope for a return to past glory. The fractions that day were even slower than the typically slow Aqueduct fractions. And to add insult to injury, the last three horses after a half mile all made the trifecta!
Assuming that Concert Tour wins big in the Ark Derby (Can we make that assumption after the events of the past 6 weeks?), we’ll have four colts that are difficult to knock in any significant way — either from an historical perspective or simply from their individual performances. I can’t remember a Derby where the likely winner came from such a small pool of top contenders.
Steve’s paragraphs on RYW and GH were particularly informative and revealing in a goldmine of Derby commentary. Steve, you will be banging your head against the wall if RYW doesn’t impress in Louisville. I can hear you: “What demon possessed me?” “Three career races??? And only one dirt race in a field with a single graded stakes winner?” “First start on January 1? Lock me up!” I was just looking at a replay of the SA Derby, comparing RYW’s movement to the others. I’m a novice concerning the physical attributes of racehorses, but he sure seems to have that special quality that the greatest athletes bring to the table in every game, match, or race. As for GH, I’ll save my take on him for a bit later.
As for RYW, your last sentence says exactly why I have him No. 1 in a goofy year with absolutely no depth. And I will make this public either in a future Rankings or my handicapping column Derby week . But I am letting ego get in the way this year. I debuted maiden winners Greatest Honour (#5) and Known Agenda (#8) (Week 1) and a horse with 2 starts on grass, Rock Your World (#7) when no one knew who they were. In the past I never would have ranked them at all, never mind that high. It was all about the eye test and I feel good having spotted their potential. So instead of going with the logical No. 1 Essential Quality who everyone has No. 1 I am going with these 3, having them all No. 1 at some point, with RYW the one who was probably the biggest reach and as you said looks to have that special quality,,,and history be damned. I went with history by not ranking Justify very high and look where it got me. So no regrets whatever happens. Dont be surprised to see these 3 horses ranked 1,2,3 in the final rankings. So there is my ego getting in the way and I dont care. My three horses have done good and I am not taking the boring route this year. If EQ wins, no big deal. He looks like the logical horse. But isnt it more fun this way?
P.S. my other “discovery” Dynamic One, who I even had to defend to some of the colt’s connections who were down on him after hhs 4th in a maiden race, has done pretty well, too.
I take it you consider Concert Tour slightly below the top three. You said he’s “still a work in progress” and that his numbers must improve. Do those issues account for his staying outside of the cream of the crop? Can he join the elite with a stalking win with big figures? BTW, I apologize for repeating what you already said about the Wood/Aqueduct fractions. I knew I heard it somewhere! 😉
Not so much that he’s below the top 3, he is the only one who still has to earn his way in. I expect him to handle this field easily unless Caddo River makes a monumental rebound. And, yes, his T-Graph numbers need to improve which I am sure they will. After he wins Saturday it will be even more difficult to sort out the Top 5. After the Top 5 there is a wide gap to the rest of them.
Alotof Tapit bred colts. Excellent sire
Where is Eddie F? Unlike him to be so late to the party. Hope he’s doing OK.
I thought the same thing yesterday. Eddie F, where are you?
Especially with so many races to discuss. need him to boost the number of comments and get the conversations going, lol
🙂 As always…hiding from the law.
Oops. That was for SoloSolo.
Glad you made bail, EddieF..crime doesn’t pay. Looking forward to your list.
Ah, hiding from Tiz the Law hey? And then had to sleep in due to too much Midnight Bourbon, and a little Rebel Romance? Well it is our Greatest Honour to have you back! Very happy to see you were Highly Motivated to come back and share some of your great humor! So tell us what’s next on your Known Agenda.
Ha ha!
Very clever, Bruce. A worthy reply to that rascal Eddie F.
I could make a few outrageous and provocative statements, if that’s what you want. LOL.
LOL. Thanks for thinking about me. Returned home late yesterday after a long drive to visit “vaxed” family. I think I slept 16 hours. I’ve just about finished reading and rereading your HOF-caliber analysis and most of the comments. My own cockeyed view is forthcoming.
Look forward to it. Need to pick up the tempo.
Hi Steve,
I’ve been meaning to tell you how much I’ve enjoyed and learned from your Derby Rankings this year. I know you put in a lot of work producing this blog but it seems to me that you are really enjoying it this season. Perhaps it’s because you are no longer under the word count constraints that your previous employer placed on you? We, your fans, are the beneficiaries of you writing without a tongue tie (pun intended). I always look forward to Monday afternoons to catch up on the latest rankings and read your stories behind the story. Good stuff!
BTW, I have to concede you were right about Prevalence….. he wasn’t quite ready for the “big show”. Given time, I still think he’ll make his presence known this summer. Too bad, he just couldn’t handle that heavy slow track at Aqueduct. I still find it hard to believe that Aqueduct did not scrape off the winter surface for their premier race???
Alas, one of the best things about horse racing is its’ life lesson of moving on from disappointment….. Whether you’re a horseman, fan or bettor, you pick yourself up, brush yourself off and look forward to the next race. Hope springs eternal.
Thanks, Steve
I really appreciate that, Dewey. Thank you so much. And you are so right about enjoying it more. It’s more work and much more time consuming, but I enjoy every minute of it, knowing I can supply as much information as I wish and just be conversational and keep it light and hopefully entertaining. I always felt like I was a burden on the BH copy editors. Here, Leonard Lusky takes pride in it and we have a great and friendly relationship. And you are also right about racing. You cant look back because there are always new horses to grasp on to and big races to look forward to.
With all these Into Mischiefs running around, it occurred to me that he could actually do this year what no stallion has done before, and that is to sire back-to-back Derby winners. That’s one stat that actually has a chance of happening every year at least until things start getting sorted out as the race approaches. With Authentic’s win last year, Into Mischief became that possibility.
Now, with Life Is Good dramatically off the trail, Into Mischief’s chance of accomplishing that feat is a little less “imminent”, shall we say. I just thought it was kind of remarkable that it hasn’t been done before, especially since the possibility of it is “set up” every year.
I guess it really is hard to win the Kentucky Derby, whether it’s you or one of your kids!!
You never know but with them retiring colts so early seems the odds are against it. As for the Derby about the only time they ever race with 19 possible other horses for a total of 20 breaking from the gate. Even if they have 1 or 2 scratches still more then they are used to. The only race I can think of with a larger entry would be the Grand National Steeplechase over at Aintree.
$20 exacta Rock Your World/Greatest Honour pays around $800….
I’ll take it
I like your way of thinking. This could be it!
Love that exacta box plus including CT…
Hi Steve, Essential Quality and O Besos ran the kind of derby preps I like to see. But I can’t tell if they went slow early in the Bluegrass. Would you know if 23.83 and 48.21 are considered slow, normal, or fast early splits at Keeneland? There are very few dirt route races there April 2nd and 3rd for comparison. Thanks.
It was pretty slow on that track. the two 7f races were very fast
Thanks for confirming. In that case I don’t have a derby horse yet lol.
Steve another great read once again. Looking forward to Saturday and see what happens. I did enjoy all 3 races last Saturday. Never bet anything just watched. Had my eye on Bourbonic as he was so far back just cruising it looked like. When he started to close the gap and pick off horses it was fun to watch. The Bluegrass stretch duel was close. As for Rock Your World switching leads? I really don’t know. First time racing on dirt? Laura Hillenbrand wrote the book on Seabiscuit so maybe Red did tell George to switch leads to get another gear. Then again the horse might have just been having fun. We will find out in May. Hopefully by the end of the week will be hearing if there will be entries from across the big pond.
I’m from the Old School-John Conlee song
reply to Decidedly
Steve you hit it on the head, when you said how he changes lead often and seems like he’s picking up speed every time…..maybe he just has great air intake, with that ample backside he’s churning out torque and he HAS to keep switching, at least that could explain how he gallops out like he does, after running them off their feet.
Great points Matthew. Thanks.
Hello, Mr. Foundation, Hello, where have you gone Mr. Foundation.
I remember a time not so long ago, when Mr. Foundation would never, ever, consider putting a horse with only three starts, all in his 3yr old year, #1 on his Kentucky Derby list.
You are 100 percent correct. I never thought I would but ya gotta change with the times and this horse is freaky. i never would have if it wasnt for his monster gallop outs and how far he went
I’m right there with you!
In this week of head scratching & dart throwing I totally agree with you Steve.
That was an amazing performance by Rock Your World.
Essential Quality looked very good as well. He dug in and fought hard for the win. I like to see a horse do it. The great do not like getting passed in the stretch.
As far as the Wood Memorial goes there I saw no horse in that race I could remotely say is a bonafide Derby contender.
I would not even be surprised if that race got downgraded to a Grade III. It’s not the same race as it used to be. Great horses back in the day raced in the Wood Memorial.
I agree with you Steve, I am still putting Greatest Honour at #1 as far as betting goes. It’s been a strange 14 months with regards to racing so maybe the Derby will have an unusual end to it.
I just love reading your blogs. Every Monday I cannot wait to open up the Derby rankings.
Thank you for all of your hard work.
1. Greatest Honour
2. Rock Your World
3. Concert Tour
4. Essential Quality
5. Known Agenda
6. Medina Spirit
Thank you very much Deacon. There is no way I wouldnt bet Greatest Honour, especially at the price hes going to be.
I agree wholeheartedly with your top pick. With a middle to outside draw for the Derby he can stalk the pace instead of making it. John Sadler’s training abilities are a well kept secret outside of Southern California. This is his chance to shine.
Totally agree! We know #1 post is deal breaker,but middle is good.
If you DON’T think Rock Your World will win the Derby—then perhaps you should look for a deep closer–because a horse like Rock can make the running, and if he tires—then everybody chasing his pace will tire, too–and probably more—Rock is the key—look closely at his training—I haven’t put a dime on him, but if he looks good on May 1st—that will change!
I dont see him making the running, but if he does and the others put pressure on him I can see a horse like Greatest Honour bouncing back to win. But I am hoping RYW is laying just off the pace.
I think Medina is going to run his race in Louisville, probably not win–but he will be in the mix, he’s a real nice colt.
I am with you there Matthew… any horse whose worst races are runner-up efforts against the best in the West should be a must in any exotic bet.
If I were to rank this Santa Anita Derby as one of the top 5 this century then Medina Spirit is to be likewise considered a very smart runner.
I debated where to rank him and I may very well move him higher next week. I just dont think he looks a like a Derby winner but certainly will be competitive
Rich Mig. was of the opinion that we’ll see a different Medina Spirit outside California, because of the different crop rules. He thinks MS is one of those horses like a bicycle, and the crop is his cue to stay engaged.
Great stuff as usual. Thanks, Steve!
Anyone know why Rock Your World didn’t race as a 2-year-old? Given that he didn’t run at 2, started his career on grass, and switched leads multiple times on Saturday in his brilliant win, I just wonder if he’s had physical problems along the way…ouchy feet or something along those lines. Whatever the case, he’s a stone-cold runner. His gallop-out on Saturday was un-freaking-real.
Re. the Blue Grass — I’ve been saying for months that Highly Motivated demonstrated unusual tenacity and desire to win in his 2-year-old races — go back and watch how fearless he was running inside of horses, taking dirt, splitting horses — and he certainly showed that grit on Saturday. So…does he regress or move forward off his first race around two turns? It could go either way. Sometimes you’ll see a 3-year-old go backward off a race like this — and sometimes you’ll see him move forward 3-5 lengths, the way Funny Cide did after losing the Wood in 2002 to Empire Maker. If the latter happens, this horse has a legit shot at the roses if he gets a good draw and a clean trip.
Highly Motivated has run a back to back “3” on Thoro-Graph so he should not regress and I am sure he will move forward and get closer to a zero in the Blue Grass. As for Rock Your World Sadler always takes his time with young horses and when he was ready to run the ony maiden sprint in the book was on grass, so thats the only reason he started on grass. When he won so impressively they naturally took advantage of the stakes race.
Thanks, Steve. Much appreciated. I actually had a 50/1 future bet on the Sadler-trained Corby in the 1993 KY Derby. Like Rock Your World, Corby started his career on turf before moving to dirt. Corby won the one-mile San Rafael at Santa Anita and ultimately finished 6th at Churchill. Rock Your World looks like a different kind of animal altogether. We shall see.
I’m keen to look into Chad Brown’s numbers with 3-year-olds running back after posting a new TG top, which, as you say, Highly Motivated likely did on Saturday. If he can pair or move forward again in 4 weeks, he’s in with a shot — if the Derby gods afford him a decent trip.
Correction: Corby won the San Felipe, not the San Rafael. I got him momentarily confused with Dinard, another Paulson-owned colt. 🙂
When I stared Derby Watch in ’93 I remember having Corby No. 1
Just wanted to say that I love the enthusiasm from Johnny I in the Wood. Underrated race caller imo.
When NYRA had a contest back in the late ’70s and held auditions from tapes to choose a second backup announcer, my wife who was PR cooridnator was a judge and chose John and thats how he got the job. He deserved this opportunity and is doing a great job
I agree 100% that Rock Your World is the horse to beat. He destroyed his competition Saturday and it was his first time on dirt. He reminds me of Barbaro. RYW turn of foot is amazing and effortless, he looked like he wasn’t trying. This is the first time I’ve seen him run and I’m sold, I think this colt could be special. Still like Hot Rod Charlie too, I think he may surprise a lot of folks. I just LOVE 3 year old races in the spring leading up to the Kentucky Derby!!!
I was thinking the same thing. I love horses that can not only run but win on different surfaces. And Barbaro came to mind. Secretariat as well. He will never be Big Red but I got that tingle when I watched him in the SA Derby. As Steve put it he could be something special.
Thanks for the consolidation. I’ve really enjoyed following the three-year-olds this year, with thanks to FoxSports and NBC for broadcasting them, even though I’d like to see them do more analysis. I’m very curious what Godolphin’s decision on Rebel’s Romance will be. It would be great to see Charlie Appleby with a Derby starter at Churchill Downs.
I’m looking forward to where your list goes from here!
Let’s see what Proxy does in the Lexington. If they have two legit Derby horses they might pass. If they lose Proxy as well as Prevalence then they might send Rebel to back up EQ.
Brilliant description of the Santa Anita Derby by Steve … seems like there is a new sheriff in town!
Many of us were expecting Rock Your World to win the Santa Anita Derby but witnessing such display of superiority was a gift to the senses.
Rock Your World looked like the Colossus of Rhodes towering over the Santa Anita racetrack while inhaling his competition.
The 2021 Santa Anita Derby ought to be among the top 10 ever. Rock Your World was so spectacular that reminded me of Affirmed, Winning Colors, Sunday Silence and California Chrome.
Those were my initial impressions after watching a “machine like” Rock Your World; some speed figures that are coming show him as the fastest Derby horse this weekend but not as high as I expected… and, still some people think that Essential Quality’s Blue Grass was a bit better…
Any horse capable of finishing the way RYW did after a scintillating first quarter deserves a lot of attention…!
The champ got a mighty challenger now and the Derby promises to be an unforgettable clash of the undefeated.
The son of Candy Ride is indeed rocking our world before the Derby…!
Wow, and I tought I was bragging on him. Lol
You weren’t worried about the professionalism/mechanics? Rock Your World was late to change leads at the top of the lane before hopping back to his left lead late. Rose colored glasses? Ha ha
I was a bit worried but then I read : “It’s as if he uses lead changes to find another gear.” written by someone who knows few things about assessing talent and reading races … moreover, I feel that the son of Candy Ride got yet another gear for fastest acceleration reserved for the Derby…
For some reason I just saw Rock Your World replicating Affirmed’s run in the SA Derby…
and I am not as excited as Umberto Rispoli about the horse … the happiest Italian in the world last Saturday !
I did giggle when reading “he uses lead changes to find another gear” but writers are always allowed artistic license to persuade the reader. Ha ha
Depending on how Concert Tour runs Saturday, I still believe the best three are Essential Quality, Concert Tour, and Greatest Honour but that’s before the post draw.
David, I was with you until the SA Derby and the aftermath. Watch RYW gallop out and walk back, he is a total monster…
Jeff, don’t get me wrong, I think Rock Your World is a very nice colt. Whether he is as good as Concert Tour et al I’m sceptical. Moreover, I would expect Bob Baffert to apply extreme pressure on Rock Your World in the Kentucky Derby.
Mind you, the post draw could dramatically impact on the above runners so who knows until then?
Heaven help us when the horse figures out that lead changes actually create wormholes, allowing him to disappear and then reappear momentarily, a few strides ahead.
Yes, and a 20 horse field is a mess at best. I just have reservations about Rock Your World putting it all together while being under that form of pressure. The three I like appear more than capable of performing at their best under extreme pressure. Fingers crossed for good posts.
Rock Your World doesn’t strike green in the mold of Soup and Sandwich, and John Sadler strikes as the thoughtful sort, who will no doubt do whatever necessary and possible to prepare the horse for the derby that is the Derby, based on the evidence of this weekend’s derby. Still, as you say, fingers crossed.
John Sadler, for whatever reason, doesn’t have a good win percentage outside of California especially in major races and this year there is no lasix either. Moreover, the field for the Santa Anita Derby was poor for that race. If the race was in California I’d be more convinced that Rock Your World could win.
Interesting fact about JS. I have no opinion as to the reason, but still I would expect that he would address any lead change issue that he perceives, work him inside Waraire rather than outside, e.g.
Mostly I just hope the race will be as clean and trouble free as possible, so every horse has the chance to run its best race and we can see what their made of. Probably too much to hope for.
Hopefully, a colt like Panadol takes them on a merry chase and really stretches the field. The last few years the closers have had no chance which makes for a boring race. Unless, he gets a dreadful post Essential Quality is the one to beat.
More than arty literature is just an observation that the game of legs was caused by a lot of energy i.e. being full of himself rather than by being tired …
Nothing wrong with your top three and you can squeeze a special horse in your roll of honor
… but I see that your world is very hard to be rocked ! LOL
It will be a great gift for Umberto, after the SNAFU in getting to the Saudi Cup, if he will ride Rock Your World in the Derby.
Loved your comments about Rock Your World – in this year when a novice bettor could be tempted to bet $2 on EVERY horse in the Derby field. I watched all 3 top races last Saturday and after reading this column, I went back and watched the Santa Anita Derby again and caught all those lead changes down the stretch. You are RIGHT, that he seemed to leap forward with each change of leads. Good eye, Steve Haskin! Fun year!
Thanks Wanda
Steve Haskin –
Incredible that Rock the World is ranked #1. Did not realize that his SA Derby win was that impressive until reading about
it days after the fact. Never really took the horse seriously going into the race since he had only run on grass. Noticed that he shows Olympio in his bloodlines, who was trained by Ron McAnally when he raced in the 1990’s. Colt won four Derbies (races) in 1991, although none were at 1 1/4 miles and none in Kentucky. One of them was a division of the Hollywood Derby, run on grass.
As a sire, Olympio ended up in the state of California, where he turned out to be good, useful sire. I thought he was underrated and he was no. 1 on my list of California sires for several years. However, never did I imagine that Olympio’s name would appear in the bloodlines of a highly rated contender of any Kentucky Derby.
On another note, I’d like to know Godolphin’s plans for Kentucky Derby 2021, specifically Rebel’s Romance, if he is to run.
Thanks for any information.
7.5 Furlongs
No word yet on Rebel. Jimmy Bell said he would let me know if he hears anything official. They might be waiting to see how Proxy does in the Lexington.
Thanks for the update.
I think you got number one correct. For me Greatest Honour is number two especially with O Besos highly unlikely not getting in, the big disappointment of the year. Expecting Caddo River back in the top 12 next week. Don’t fight him !! Essential Quality is great but I’m not sure he will excel at 10f. Rock Your World is actually clear number one.
I’ve zero doubt EQ can get 10f.
Keep the faith with O Besos, there are often quite a few defectors, late. After the Blue Grass Stakes, 10f should be the last of you worries with Essential Quality.
Imagine that there is a “like” counter next to your post, and that I clicked on it.
Ha ha Thanks. It’s just the luck of the draw but it would be a shame if O Besos didn’t get to run.
(Prego.)
O Besos is improving at the right time and deserving, but the race has proved such a crushing experience for so many that it’s difficult to decide whether the likelihood of a good result – tangible or intangible – is sufficient to outweigh the likelihood of .. not.
The Kentucky Derby is often the ruin of many promising colts. I enjoy the Derby prep races enormously but the Kentucky Derby itself…
Hello Steve, good to hear that Proxy may be targeting the Lexington. Its his chance to face lesser and get a confidence builder moving forward. Hopefully Proxy can get the graded stakes win and be straight as an arrow in the stretch. If Proxy can work out the kinks this Saturday, he could be an interesting live longshot heading into the KY Derby. You would think that Godolphin would send Proxy if he looks good winning the Lexington because Rebel’s Romance seems likely at least at this point to skip the derby and Godolphin would only have 1 horse for the derby, although he is the likely favorite being Essential Quality. It will be interesting to see who rides Proxy on Saturday.
He is targeting the Lexington, they just havent made it official yet.
Saturday was by turns a yelling spree, a jaw dropped open and a head scratcher for me. Thanks for the interesting updates all in one place. I can’t wait to see what the first Saturday in May brings!
Excellent, once again, Steve!
EQ-I agree #3 or #4 in his rankings, I would probably have CT ranked ahead but we will find out more this weekend.
EQ- I am reviewing his competition in his lifetime performances. Besides HRC, I am not impressed at all with who has been behind him. Basically, beating up a bunch of lower level animals…Do you agree? With that thought, and lower speed figures, I think 3rd or 4th is his ceiling. No disrespecting his accomplishments, but I do believe he is at his ceiling…
Also, what have juvenile winners done historically in the KD?
I didnt want to come right out say it because there havent been many tough opponents, but yes I dont think hes beaten much although we dont know how good Highly motivated is.
Nyquist and Street Sense.
It seems to me that there have been several races when the jockey hit the horse excessively that the horse reacted by bearing out or switching leads, and that this may have very well cost them the race. Regarding RYW, I worry about all of that lead switching in the stretch and hope not a sign of soundness issues, and I stead hope it is more greenness, or again, reacting to over- whipping.
Thank you, Ruthie. I was starting to wonder if I was in a dream/nightmare. Lol. Everyone appeared to be falling over themselves in overpraising Rock Your World’s performance. Not a hint of concern about the mechanics or professionalism. Rock York World provided plenty of concern, as you say he was late to change leads at the top of the lane before hopping back to his left lead late. Try doing that in the Derby with 19 other colts bearing down on you.
Hi Steve
It came as no surprise that Rock Your World would take over the #1 spot in your Derby Rankings: Week 12.
Yesterday I predicted you would do just that, and went on to predict where the remaining 11 horses would be placed.
I was relatively close:
1) RYW
2) Essential Quality
3) Known Agenda
4) Concert Tour
5) Highly Motivated
6) Hot Rod Charlie
7) Medina Spirit
8) Greatest Honour
9) Soup and Sandwich
10) Midnight Bourbon
11) Rombauer
12) Dynamic One
Thanks for continuing to do such a great job in providing your analysis on each of these top contenders on the Derby trail.
Needless to say, I’m very happy to have a $100.00 win wager on RYW in Pool 5, at 31-1. 🙂
The big difference is Medina and I didnt know where to put him. I think he’s better than some of those above him but I think they may have a better shot in the Derby. I think we’ve seen his best at this point, but he coulld definitely move up after I watch his races again. That is an aweome bet; good luck!!!!
Thanks for the reply Steve.
When you mentioned, ” I think he’s (MS) is better than some of those above him, but I think they may have a better shot in the Derby”, is spot on. Needless to say, any Baffert colt running in the KD is always dangerous. You have to admire the way he hung in there with RYW in the SA Derby.
Steve,
How are Rock This World’s Thoro-Graph #’s looking?
We wont know until Wednesday or Thursday.
Well, as luck would have it, I have nothing but time on my hands right now, so waiting is what I’m getting good at. Had surgery last Wednesday to repair an old soccer ankle injury that evolved into something far worse and more crippling. Now I’m a non weight bearing, tv and race film watching professional for the next 8 weeks. Sooooo, I’m in no hurry. I’ll circle back and check in on that. And yes, the timing was intentional to be off this time of year even though this was supposed to happen last year but a pandemic got in the way.
Steve, I thought that you would place Rock #1, I bet on Dream Shake Sat, and at the walking ring I took close note of him…Rock was right behind, and while Dream Shake was fine looking, Rock Your World was bigger and longer, like an older horse—-if the Derby had been run last Saturday he would have won for fun! There’s always the chance for a form bounce, after such a strong performance….but maybe Beyer got the #’s wrong on his turf races. They sure looked strong like his SA Derby, he always draws farther in front on the gallop out—-
The year that Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby 2009, my sister and I were walking around the infield, fascinators in place, beers in hands, pouring over the form, trying to pick the Derby winner. I liked Dunkirk that year. I don’t recall who my sister liked. My step mother had given my sister explicit instructions to bet the longshot Bird horse, so naturally when we went to the window to bet we picked Summer Bird, the wrong Bird. Man oh man, my step-mother was mad when she found out we bet the wrong Bird. Sitting home watching on TV, she thought she had it. Let’s just say this year I will NOT be making the Bird mistake again, so when it comes down to figuring out which Bourbon horse to bet, I’ll be betting both of them, maybe even exacta-box them, and thinking of my step-mother up in heaven somewhere watching on the big Jumbotron in the sky.
Cheers!!!
“Watching on the big Jumbotron in the sky”….. if (and that’s a big IF) I make it to Heaven, I hope that the Lord will provide space for a race book with a big Jumbotron so that we horseplayers can continue to enjoy our favorite sport. Okay, so even if He frowns on gambling, I will appreciate a good seat to watch the Kentucky Derby from above. lol
Good Day Steve,
Awesome to see you have Rock Your World at #1 this week ! I also believe he is something special. I can’t wait to observe how he works over the next few weeks. I won’t even bet on Derby Day, as I already have a little pile of $10 Future Derby 5 #21 tickets 🙂
What are your thoughts on Sadler’s plans to keep him training in Santa Anita and then shipping him late to Kentucky? He will not have much time to feel the track there.
Also, I feel that Umberto Rispoli should keep the mount in the Derby ! He and Rock seem happy together ! Do you think Sadler will choose a more experienced and well known Jockey like Smith ?
Thanks Steve !
I always like when horses ship early to get a feel of the track and get used to the new surroundigs but I have seen too many horses ship the week of the race and win so I wont make much of it either way. Many California trainers want to make sure there are no weather delays in their training. I dont know enough about Rispoli but from what I see hes a very good jockey and smart. I would keep him on.
Umberto Rispoli was one of Italy’s premier jockeys before testing the waters in the U.S. He has displayed his skills in the short time he has ridden in California. Ron Anderson the agent who has represented a host of champion jockeys, regretfully had to give up Rispoli’s book when he agreed to take on John Velasquez’ assignments. He was high on Rispoli’s riding ability and predicted a bright future.
John Sadler has used Umberto before and I’m sure he is comfortable keeping him in the saddle with Rock Your World. Most trainers are loathe to break up a winning combination.
No way will Sadler change riders, by the way, there’s no turf racing for the next two weeks at Santa Anita, and only two racing days for the next two weeks, I heard Rispoli is going to ride at Keeneland this week….
Hmm, “loathe” may be too strong a word, shall we say “shy away from”.
Thank you Steve !
Also to Dewey and Matthew for your input…
A virtuoso performance by Mr H.
Thanks so much. I appreciate it.
None of the predictors posting “here’s what I think Steve will do” lists yesterday expected Essential Quality would be third but I think your reasoning is strong, Steve. At the moment, there are five or six horses who could win in Kentucky and not be a surprise. That sets it up nicely for a long shot!
I hated putting him third, but I couldnt put the two horses I have been touting for a while below him. I want to stand out from the crowd. Lol
Beautifully done, too.