Derby Rankings: Week 13
Well, all the preps are over with the exception of the Lexington Stakes and we’re now in the homestretch. We lost two, possibly three top-class horses this past weekend, but all in all the form held up very well and we now have a solid base of contenders. I know a Top 17 is an odd count, but that’s all I have to rank. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 11, 2022 – Week 13
By Steve Haskin
1– Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
I just needed to see what this colt could do when he was able to run his race. I wrote last week, “Once he puts it all together and gets a good trip and a little luck, we could see something special.” And I believe we did. I also admit to a certain lack of objectivity with him, as I wrote a “Derby Sleepers” column on him way back on October 18 after his maiden victory, giving his entire back story, so I have felt close to him, following his every move since then, from Derby sleeper to now possible Derby favorite. When I texted Chad Brown and told him I thought he had a potential star he wrote back, “I have NEVER stretched a horse out that far before off just one race (from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles), but this horse is freaky good…he can win the Derby.” Those last words have stuck with me ever since because I was amazed how well he ran in the Remsen. Yes, I know Epicenter beat him geared down in the Risen Star, but he was going 1 1/8 miles off a two and a half-month layoff, got left at the gate and had to rally five-wide from last to finish third. I was expecting him to be just off the pace in the Blue Grass, as he was in his maiden win and in the Remsen Stakes. But he again dropped back to last. Each time he tried to move up he got shuffled back again. But he was always in striking range. Finally, he took off, weaved his way through the field, overcame some bumping in the upper stretch, and blew right on by Smile Happy, who looked like he had the race won. This was the horse I was waiting to see, and we know now that he is shifty enough to overcome traffic and find his own openings. His final fractions of :24 1/5 and :12 1/5 were strong and if ever a race can set you up for the Kentucky Derby this is it.
2– Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
He turned in a solid five-furlong breeze in 1:01 in company, out six furlongs in 1:14 3/5, pulling up seven panels in 1:29 2/5. He will have a good feel for Churchill Downs training over it for this long. You’re splitting hairs with the top three; I believe they are that close. It’s not common for a Derby winner to go into the race having never earned a Thoro-Graph number faster than a “2 ½,” but if you look at his pattern you can see him winning the race if he takes the next logical step. After running an “8 ½” last year he improved to a “5 ¾”in the Gun Runner stakes, then paired that number in the Lecomte Stakes. That set him up for another jump to a “2 ½” in the Risen Star, which he again paired up in the Louisiana Derby. When a horse pairs up a career best and shows a pattern of doing it you can expect a move forward in his next race, which he did in the Risen Star. If he makes the same kind of improvement in the Kentucky Derby it definitely would be put him in the zero to negative range, which would be good be enough to win. I don’t know what the Thoro-Grraph numbers will be from this past weekend, but no one has run faster than a “1,” which leaves the door open for a number of horses who in other years might have been considered too slow. It all depends on how he handles the six-week layoff. With the new 1 3/16-mile distance, the Louisiana Derby form held up very well last year.
3– Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
Despite two defeats this year by more than two lengths, I am remaining loyal to the horse I had ranked No. 1 for the first 10 weeks, seeing just what I was hoping to see in the Blue Grass Stakes, which was the spark he showed in his first two starts last year that was missing to some degree in the Risen Star Stakes when he was ridden way too conservatively and being asked to run way too late. He really needed to put in a strong run and get something out of the race. First off, he needed to be closer to the pace, but had to overcome the 10 post, and as feared was caught five-wide going into the first turn, which was the last thing you wanted to see. Corey Lanerie had to make an early move with him to get him in a decent position in third down the backstretch in order to stay close to a loose on the lead Emmanuel. He was also forced to go after Emmanuel a little early, collared him turning for home, and took a couple of solid bumps from him. Lanerie, after throwing several crosses on him, went to a right-hand whip and the colt resented it, throwing his tail up and ducking in. Just then, Zandon came storming up on his outside, and by then he was starting to get a little tired from his earlier efforts, switching back to his left lead at the sixteenth pole. Although he was no match for the winner he still finished almost four lengths ahead of Emmanuel in a race he desperately needed. This should move him toward a peak performance in the Derby and I strongly believe he can win it coming off this race.
4– Taiba (Tim Yakteen, Gun Runner – Needmore Flattery, by Flatter)
Is this the freak of all freaks? If he wins the Kentucky Derby off two lifetime starts then there is no use handicapping the Derby anymore based on logic even if he is a freak. I would never consider ranking a horse with two starts this high, but no matter what you think of Baffert, no one puts a foundation into a horse like he does and this colt has a tremendous foundation, turning in some sensational long works over deep tiring racetracks. Also, he’s a powerfully built colt with a massive shoulder on him and big hind end, yet he runs low to the ground and is very light on his feet. I refused to rank Justify high because of the three starts and I would hate to make that mistake again. Even though Baffert no longer trains him he tried the same thing with Paynter, who finished a strong fourth in the Santa Anita Derby coming off only one 5 ½-furlong maiden victory. He then went on to be beaten a neck in the Belmont Stakes and easily win the Haskell. What I wouldn’t give to see Churchill Downs have to present the Derby trophy to Amr Zedan, the owner of Medina Spirit, who they recently disqualified from last year’s Derby, made an event out of taking down his Derby winner’s sign in the paddock, and made him give this horse to another trainer. And remember Zedan couldn’t stop raving about Baffert after winning last month’s Dubai World Cup. But getting down to the reality of it all, this horse not only has to be a freak to have won this race, it was the way he did it, looking like a seasoned veteran who didn’t seem to raise a sweat, blowing right by Messier and winning by 2 ¼ lengths in a solid 1:48 2/5 with a final furlong in :12 2/5. He ran an amazing “2” on Thoro-Graph in his career debut so we knew he was special. After this victory is he in danger of bouncing big-time in the Derby? I have over 50 years of history telling me he can’t win off two career starts and coming off such a monstrous performance. Now someone has to tell him that.
5– Messier (Tim Yakteen, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
It was agonizing trying to figure out which horse to rank higher. You can knock him for getting beat by his stablemate who had only one six-furlong maiden win, but let’s assume Taiba is a total freak and Messier needed this race coming off a two-month layoff and a stroll in the park victory against inferior competition. I know he officially is not trained by Baffert, but let’s not forget that Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbys with horses coming off a second in the Santa Anita Derby, and that doesn’t include Authentic because of the timing factor. He did miss the break on Saturday and had to be rushed a bit to split horses going into the first turn. John Velazquez no doubt was focusing all his attention on Forbidden Kingdom who he was chasing all the way. He got the lead from him easier than expected and before he knew it Taiba was all over him. I know there is very little depth to the 3-year-old division in California and I don’t know how much he is going to improve in the Derby, but he did do the dirty work and you have to think this race will move him forward. Because of the winner’s lack of experience and Forbidden Kingdom packing it in early it makes the Santa Anita Derby all the more confusing. This horse has shown some chinks in his armor, getting beat by Slow Down Andy, but he has also shown sparks of brilliance. I believe he will improve in the Derby, but how good he really is depends in some ways on how special Taiba is. I could reverse their rankings after watching them train at Churchill Downs and perhaps coming to my senses. But for now let’s give the slightest nod to the freak.
6– Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
Kudos to him for tossing his lackluster Thoro-Gaph numbers in the trash. Going into the Wood Memorial off a “6 ½,” a “6,” and a “6 ½” he looked like a horse who was going nowhere numbers-wise and showing no improvement, despite good efforts in the Remsen and Holy Bull. Also, his Brisnet numbers of 91, 93, and 92 were nothing to rave about, nor were his Beyers of 82, 90, and 90. Plus he missed the Fountain of Youth with a fever and was coming into the Wood off a nine-week layoff. So from a handicapping standpoint there had to be doubts about him going into this race. But he took advantage of a fairly solid pace set by Early Voting over a drying out track and was able to wear him down late with some brilliant closing fractions of :23 3/5 and :11 4/5, while covering the mile and eighth in 1:47 4/5, the fastest Wood since Bellamy Road’s freakish performance in 2005. How legit those are I have no idea. His Beyer figure of 96 obviously was an improvement, but he still needs to move forward off that. Breaking from post 1, he was able to hug the rail most of the way, found room on the inside turning for home, eased outside Early Voting late and ran him down by a neck, so we’ll have to wait to see how much his Thoro-Graph numbers improved. He doesn’t have that quick acceleration and it takes him a while to build momentum He was also helped by the favorite Morello breaking terribly, dropping back to last, and never firing. He still hasn’t shown a big turn of foot, but just keeps coming at you, and credit Pletcher for having him razor-sharp off the layoff.
7– White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
Although it looks as if the sloth-like closing fractions of the Florida Derby will remain as is, despite top-class horses rarely ever running that slow, there is the other side of the coin, and that is White Abarrio’s Thoro-Graph number of “1.” So we have dueling speed statistics and you will have to decide which one to go by. Can a horse run that fast a number while closing like it was at the end of a three-mile marathon? In this case do you like the tortoise or the hare? That Thoro-Graph number equals Messier’s Robert B. Lewis figure as the fastest run by a 3-year-old this year. Prior to this race, White Abarrio had been on a steady, but unspectacular, pattern, going from “10 ½” to an “8 ¼,” to a “7” to a “5.” Then when he crawls home and can’t break 1:50 for a mile and an eighth he leaps to a “1.” I surely can’t figure it out, but it does put the colt in a good position to win the Derby. His Brisnet numbers also are conflicting. His 96 speed figure in the Florida Derby was down a point from the Holy Bull, but still good enough to make him dangerous at Churchill, and his middle pace figure was a strong 110. But his late pace figure was a sluggish 77, which is reflective of the slow closing fractions. One thing about him, he does know how to put himself in perfect striking position every race and that certainly will help him at Churchill Downs. I am not enamored with him, but I definitely respect him.
8– Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
As I’m sure you have noticed I often use the Brisnet speed figures because they give you a number of variables, such as early, middle, and late pace figures and not just straight speed figures. They also have a main figure called Prime Power, which measures the quality of each horse’s recent starts by combining dozens of handicapping factors into one rating — speed, class, pace, form, weight, distance, and many other factors – to form a sophisticated computer generated algorithm. The reason I mention this is, despite finishing third in the Florida Derby and getting just an OK 93 speed rating, Simplification’s Prime Power number of 146.7 is the highest of all the 23 horses listed in the final Future Wager before Saturday, which indicates there is lot more going on with this colt than one might think. As I mentioned last week, I look at the Florida Derby in a positive light, considering Sano’s strategy to put him back on the pace blew up in his face. In his previous two starts when he rallied from off the pace his two middle pace figures were a solid 93 and 92. In the Florida Derby when he was caught in the middle of a three-horse speed duel his middle pace figure was 113, which is way too fast to expect a horse to close off that. So I am forgiving his ridiculously slow final factions and late pace figure, which I am not convinced are correct, considering Gulfstream’s poor record timing racing. When Simplification won the Mucho Macho Man on the lead he was able to show off his high cruising speed with an early pace figure of 95, middle pace figure of 101, and late pace figure of 95, resulting in a strong 99 speed figure. His maiden victory speed figure of 103 has since been topped by only Messier’s 104. This horse’s best race can win the Kentucky Derby.
9– Cyberknife (Brad Cox, Gun Runner – Awesome Flower, by Flower Alley)
He’s a good horse who obviously is improving and you can’t dismiss him, but he just doesn’t excite me. With Secret Oath coming out of the Arkansas Derby very tired after making a move that was by far the most exciting part of the race, I’m not really sure what he beat. The most hyped prospect in the race, We the People, didn’t run a lick and the Rebel winner cut himself open on the starting gate and was never a factor. His Thoro-Graph numbers are progressing nicely with a career best “2 ¼ in the Arkansas Derby,” but he had run a “5” twice early in his career, so he hasn’t moved that far forward since last year. As for his Brisnet figures he has run a 94 in last two starts, both career highs, and that is nowhere near the fastest horses, so he would have to make a pretty huge jump in the Derby. The same goes for his 92 Beyer figure. On the Brisnet Prime Power we mentioned earlier he ranks 11th. I don’t want to sound like he is a no hoper who has little chance to win the Derby. I’m just going by the stats and what I’ve seen and figuring he will be bet somewhat in the Derby off his victory at Oaklawn. He also has been tough to handle at times, as we saw when he dumped his rider in the post parade of the Arkansas Derby, and that is the last thing you want to see on Kentucky Derby day. He should get the distance with no problem and we’ll see if can dazzle us with his works at Churchill Downs.
10– Charge It (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – I’ll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie)
After pairing solid “5s” in his first two career starts on Thoro-Graph he made an impressive jump to a “2 ¼” in the Florida Derby, going from a maiden race to a Grade 1. So we know he is a talented colt with a very bright future. What we don’t know is whether he can improve once again in the Kentucky Derby, which he likely will have to do, and in only his fourth career start. As I have said, I am not a fan of horses with only three career starts going in the Derby. I realize that times are changing and we can drop the “race” from racehorses, with today’s equine stars making fewer and fewer appearances and are virtual strangers when they get to Churchill Downs. But I still need to see horses with three starts be successful in the Derby on a fairly regular basis rather than a freak occurrence that has happened only two times, with both winners being freaks themselves who came along in a weak crop. So while I acknowledge that Charge It is capable of running a strong race in the Derby, even with running greenly in the Florida Derby, and nothing shocks me anymore, I am still not ready to place my win bets on him. But if he is as good as he has looked and can take another step forward then he could pick up a piece of it and be used in the exotics.
11– Early Voting (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Amour d’ete, By Tiznow)
I’m still not sure what the plans are for him, if they’re thinking Derby or Preakness. If they commit to the Derby he could move up a few spots. I thought he ran an excellent race coming off the nine-week layoff, as did Mo Donegal, but there should be a lot of pace pressure in the Derby and the question is how he will stand up to it with only three career starts and one start in 13 weeks. Considering he did get pressure in the Wood from A.P.’s Secret through fractions in :47 3/5 and 1:11 2/5 and came home in :24 and :12 1/5 that was a huge effort. By comparison, the fractions in the Gazelle two races later were :49 1/5 and 1:13 4/5. There is no doubt he will get the mile and a quarter without any problem, so it’s a tough decision. Unlike most of the Gun Runners, he’s a bigger, more muscular type, so he should be able to handle whatever is thrown at him. At this point it looks like he would be the speed of the Derby unless Slow Down Andy can’t be slowed down and would provide a good strong pace to run at. But don’t expect him to stop.
12– Tiz the Bomb (Kenny McPeek, Hit It a Bomb – Tiz the Key, by Tiznow)
I have to admit this horse is really starting to intrigue me. I normally don’t put a lot of stock in races run on a synthetic track, but Turfway is now Tapeta and I feel that may translate better to dirt than Polytrack. I’m not sure how that track was playing, but no matter how it was, the final time of 1:48 3/5 is racehorse time and I loved how quickly he shifted into another gear and accelerated on the far turn. It wasn’t a long explosive move, like Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby, but it was the instant acceleration when Brian Hernandez stepped on the gas. Dare I say like a European grass horse? I went back and watched his 14-length maiden victory on the dirt at Ellis Park and that was pretty spectacular, with his action extremely smooth, but powerful. And for sheer closing power, watch his stretch run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf after he finally found racing room, and how he was flying at the end to snatch second after appearing a sure thing to be out of the money. So we know he handles the dirt and can decimate his opponents, we know he has an explosive closing kick, and we know he has a sudden turn of foot. We just have to figure out what happened in the Holy Bull. Was it his first kickback and over a pretty sandy course? His Thoro-Graph numbers of “4 ¾” in his last two starts aren’t going to blow you away, but synthetic tracks seem to bring slower numbers. If for some reason he takes to the Churchill surface and can handle the kickback, you never know. It’s a total guess, but it could prove a lucrative one in the exotics.
13– Zozos (Brad Cox, Munnings – Papa’s Forest, by Forestry)
Now at Churchill Downs, he returned to the work tab with a solid half-mile drill in :48 flat, getting his last quarter in :23 and galloping out a strong five-eighths in 1:00 4/5. As I have said a number of times I don’t like having only three lifetime starts going into the Derby, and he is a speed horse by a speed sire, which will make it even more difficult for him, especially with what appears to be a good deal of speed in this year’s race. But he does have some things in his favor as well. He has run a “3 ½ “ and then a “3” on Thoro-Graph in his last two starts, so he is in position to improve several points off that. His Brisnet speed figures have jumped from a 78 to 94 to a 98, and in his stretch-out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby, a tall task for a horse in this third career start, his early, middle, and late pace figures of 90, 93, and 98 not only were pretty solid, he got stronger as the race went on and did it on the front end. In his previous start he was able to get away with easy early and middle pace figures of 75 and 75 and then flew home with a terrific 111 late pace figure. So he is a speed horse who can close fast off moderate fractions and also get stronger off faster fractions, and he should only improve in the Derby. Whether or not the three starts catch up to him, he’s not going to be easy to put away.
14– Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Pioneerof the Nile – Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya)
He returned to the work tab with an easy half in :49 3/5 at Palm Beach Downs. He is another who will be in the first flight, just off the pace. He definitely is improving and remember, he was only a half-length and a head behind Smile Happy in the Risen Star. But until he can find a closing punch I don’t see him as potential Derby winner. He’ll be running hard, however, and should be in the mix down the stretch. As I said last week I like his steady progression moving up the class ladder, and after leaping from a “10 ½” Thoro-Graph number to a “3” in his fourth-place finish in the loaded Risen Star he paired up that “3” in the Louisiana Derby with a solid third-place finish. That puts him in position to take another big step forward, which he will have to do if he is to have any shot in the Kentucky Derby. The pedigree is there and he’s already been 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/16 miles against the No. 1, 2, and 3 ranked horses, so he certainly is no slouch. He just has to take another step forward and find a weapon he can use to win.
15– Barber Road (John Ortiz, Race Day – Encounter, by Southern Image)
When you lose five races in a row, with four seconds it’s not a coincidence. Simply put, he has to learn how to win. Yes, he’s won two races, but those were in a maiden claiming race and a starter allowance race. He keeps moving up in class and facing better horses and keeps running the same race. He can surely be one of those Derby longshots that closes for second, but he will have to show a lot more if he is to be thought of as a horse who can win it all. His Thoro-Graph numbers don’t tell you much more, fluctuating between “4s” and “7s.” All he can hope for is a fast pace, which he could very well get, and a bit of racing luck and see what he can do with it. He’s a great horse to have in the barn and always gives you 100 percent and a thrill in the stretch. But for the Derby he’ll have to step it up a notch or two if he’s going to pick up a piece of it.
16– Crown Pride (Reach the Crown – Emmy’s Pride, by King Kamehameha)
He’s at Churchill Downs and has been galloping. He’ll be in the quarantine barn until the race. There obviously is no way to know if he is a serious contender, but with the Japanese horses on a tear all over the world you certainly have to pay attention to him. He did put in a long sustained run in the UAE Derby to wear down a good horse in Summer is Tomorrow, who was stretching out from a seven-furlong romp at Meydan a month before. He is inbred to Sunday Silence to bring some familiarity to fans who are considering betting on him. He’s made three starts over a mile in his career and has won all of them, with his only defeat coming in the mud. I wouldn’t dare talk anyone out of betting him, because the respect for the Japanese keeps growing and we just don’t know good their horses are on an individual basis. All you can do is see how he handles Churchill and what kind of appearance he makes.
17– Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Edwina E, by Square Eddie)
As of Sunday he hasn’t returned to the work tab. If he gets to the Derby it looks like he could be the speed unless the Sunland Derby speedfest was a fluke with the addition of blinkers and O’Neill can get him to settle off the pace this time. He’s not pretty to watch and he still has his quirks, but he is a fighter, as he showed in the Sunland Derby and in last year’s Los Alamitos Futurity against Messier. If he does blast out of there again in the Derby he probably can outrun Early Voting, but what comes after that is a totally different story because no one has any idea. He is another you want to see train at Churchill and how he relaxes with all the activity. O’Neill is far from a conformist when it comes to training and no one has a clue how he’s going to train this horse. Be prepared for anything. But one thing is for sure of, he knows how to win the Derby, even though this colt is not in the class with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist, and likely not Hot Rod Charlie.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Although the form held up well over the weekend we did lose MORELLO, FORBIDDEN KINGDOM and EMMANUEL, who is headed to Winstar Farm for some light training with the possibility of pointing for grass races such as the Pennine Ridge and Belmont Derby. The toughest break, of course, was Morello’s terrible start in the Wood Memorial, in which he found himself in last coming out of the gate, and being a stalker he was taken way out of his comfort zone and never made an impact on the race. There has been no official word yet on Morello, but it is assumed he will not be pointed for the Derby. Forbidden Kingdom will have his epiglottis checked for any breathing issues.
Horses who have shown potential, such as IN DUE TIME, have only the Lexington Stakes left to sneak into the Derby, and with In Due Time it would mean going a mile and a quarter never having been farther than 1 1/16 miles.
Others pointing for the Lexington are MAJOR GENERAL (Todd Pletcher), MIDNIGHT CHROME (John Servis), STRAVA (Dallas Stewart), CALL ME MIDNIGHT (Keith Desormeaux), DASH ATTACK (Kenny McPeek), and THE SKIPPER TOO (John Ortiz) with BYE BYE BOBBY (Todd Fincher) and TAWNEY PORT (Brad Cox) possible.
There’s been no mention, that I’ve seen, that the last three Kentucky Derbys were won (before DQs), by horses that lead the field at every call. And the two before that lead from the third call to the end. This strikes me as one of the key trends in the race. So, I’m beginning to suspect that a wiring will again be attempted, most likely by Messier, Taiba or possibly, Epicenter. Whether or not they’re a “need to lead to win” type. It depends on how it settles out after the break. If any horse finds himself on the lead, I think the jockey will go for it. I hope the leader is challenged if so, unlike in previous years.
Any love for White Abarrio? He is very consistent and has defeated excellent horses.
Whitey is an x-factor, dynamite at Gulfstream!
Like him.
White Albarrio is in my top 5 – post position will determine final allocation.
Agreed. Love WA. I hope he gets a good draw. Around 5-10 should be fine for him.
Fingers crossed.
He ran very slow last call in the Florida derby (in 14.1) despite being all out. Even though he ran quite fast earlier in the race, I don’t think that finish was good enough to consider him a win candidate in the derby.
White Abarrio wins the Florida Derby “despite being all out”? Not according to the race I watched. Your interpretation of the Blue Grass Stakes has me confused as well.
An Adare Manor/Taiba or Messier Oaks/Derby Double has to be Churchill’s worst nightmare. Even without BB on site, there’s no way that the NBC Crew cannot talk about him. BTW, wasn’t yesterday the last day for Adare Manor to get a supplemental nomination in? I hope she runs and it sounds like she will. I think that we all want to see the best possible field on the track. I think she belongs and want to see her against the best that can be squeezed into a full 14-horse gate.
This AM Yakteen was unsure about Adare’s plans, says she is doing super.
Key prep of the year: the Risen Star Stakes at 9f
1st Epicenter – won Louisiana Derby
2nd Smile Happy – 2nd in Blue Grass
3rd Zandon – won Blue Grass
5th Tawny Port – won Lexington
6th Slow Down Andy – won Sunland Park Derby
There’s a very good chance (50-60%?) the Ky Derby winner will be one of the top three finishers in the Risen Star.
The case against Zandon is that Bluegrass surface favored deep closers all day …the case against Mo Donegal is—well there is no case against him he made a sustained run and gets an extra eighth…going to leave out Taiba and Epicenter, using Mo, and Mess, and Cyberknife, and Smile Happy…and the #5 horse in my tri box will be Zandon on one, and Zozos on the other with my four others. Two $30 wagers…..
Flip the coin, Zandon doesn’t get shuffled back early in the Blue Grass Stakes then wins by 10 lengths. The fear for me with Zandon is a getting a clean start.
Yesterday’s seventh race at Santa Anita—a truly magnificent ride, by Juan Hernandez! His mount stumbled badly, and Juan went over his back, both legs were hanging over the horse’s left side, he gets back into the stirrups, gets race ridden practically the whole way around there, pinned down on the rail….and oh yeah he gets up and wins….
I’ll have to look that one up, Matthew. Jockeys are crazy-amazing athletes.
Make sure you watch the stewards review, where they show the overhead and a view from the left side, he could have bailed off but stayed on, then he gets his right foot back in the stirrup…and the rest is history, he won the race.
Brad Cox is likely to have 3 starters in the 2022 Derby. Tawny Port, Zozos, and Cyberknife. All likely to be 10-1 or better. Even though I saw somewhere that Cox said Florent Geroux would be riding Cyberknife, I like Zozos best of the 3. Things can change in the 2 weeks leading up to the draw.
Zozos also. Much upside.
Tim Yakteen this AM: They’re going to Churchill Downs one week before….wants to stay at Santa Anita because 1) more stable weather and 2) they tighten up the Derby day surface, making it new for everyone, anyway…says Taiba recovered very nicely, Adare Manor doing super and Messier doing fine, Messier is currently co-second choice (with Zandon), Taiba is 4th choice, all others double digit odds. .
That is…at Circa.
Matthew – thanks for the info. Good to know about travel plans. I have a feeling track maintenance at Churchill take their cue from the groundskeepers at South Bend who let the grass grow until it was shin deep for the Bush/Push game.
Not surprised as Baffert pretty much did the same thing. He’s not wrong about the weather. I’m in northern Virgina and expecting snow and freezing rain tomorrow. Last year some of the derby works there at Churchill they had snow falling.
Does Geroux, Prat, or Rosario win their 2nd Derby? Does Luis Saez or one of the Ortiz brothers win their first? Maybe Churchill regulars Corey Lanerie or Brian Hernandez can break through. Hernandez is off to a terrific start in 2022. Lanerie has won a race each of the last 2 days at Keenland after I made a comment about him only winning at 6% for the year. He must be a reader of Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings. Corey Lanerie in on the right horse. All he needs is a clean trip to be right there at the finish. Hernandez’s mount Tiz the Bomb has some questions, but, what better way to go into The Derby than on a 2 race winning streak? Tawny Port’s win yesterday flatters Tiz the Bomb who beat Tawny Port rather easily in The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes IMO.
Two of the top trainers in the sport, Steve Asmussen and Chad Brown, have great chances to win their first Derby. Or does Triple Crown newcomer Tim Yakteen seize the day. He’s got 2 real shots. I think Messier can turn the tables on Taiba. The question is: do they run 1st & 2nd or 7th & 8th. What if Churchill “assigns” the Yakteen runners posts 1 &2 or 1 & 20?
Churchill got what they wanted–no Bob….they set the rules, they knew Bob’s horses would come–
It’s great to see so many fans at Keenland. This sport is alive and well. At least on the biggest days and at tracks like Keenland, Saratoga, and Del Mar.
Keenland is my favorite track for Breeders Cups. There’s just a great “vibe” there. Both Keenland tracks seem to play fair. BTW, and I’ve been saying this for years, I wish Belmont would get back into The Breeders Cup rotation.
They don’t like the winter type weather at Belmont but they could had south to Florida if hey wanted to. At least that would be on the east coast.
Messier made the early move and had not run for over 9 weeks…also his barn was certainly under much stress, and now he has had a race in his new barn, had Taiba not run…..Messier’s preps would read 15 lengths Robert Lewis and 10 lengths SA Derby—-he would be FAVORED…now he will be close to 10-1, and he won’t need to make an early move..
I’m looking for Zandon running big.
Me as well, I like Zandon and have played him n two different Futures pools…..Messier has some things to like, as well, I have not played him ever—but plan to include him in my tri box and pick four wagers, I think he is coming not the race a bit under the radar, with the barn change, and the loss….
I call him No Knocks Z. Everything points to a big effort on the first Saturday in May. No issue with Epicenter either. I don’t expect the 6 weeks off to be a problem.
Matthew, I have a bias against a horse that gets passed in the stretch of the final prep, regardless of perceived excuse. So that’s a bias against Messier, and also Simplification, Early Voting, and my first love Smile Happy. Only Mine That Bird in this century overcame the stretch loss, and he was a massive longshot. And Taiba DID run in the SA Derby, and will probably run in the KD. 🙂
Interesting stat, thanks for posting it.
Devil’s Advocate – take Taiba out, along with an obviously injured Forbidden Kingdom, and you have Messier winning the worst Santa Anita Derby in the history of the race. Why didn’t he win by 20 lengths?
“Run for the Roses” is a song written and recorded by the late singer/songwriter Dan Fogelberg in 1980.
Born in the valley
And raised in the trees
Of Western Kentucky
On wobbly knees
With Mama beside you
To help you along
You’ll soon be a growing up strong
All long lazy mornings
In pastures of green
The sun on your withers
The wind in your mane
Could never prepare you
For what lied ahead
The run for the roses so red
And it’s run for the roses
As fast as you can
Your fate is delivered
Your moment’s at hand
It’s the chance of a lifetime
In a lifetime of chance
And it’s high time you joined in the dance
It’s high time you joined in the dance
From sire to sire
It’s born in the blood
The fire of a mare
And the strength of a stud
It’s breeding and it’s training
And it’s something unknown
That drives you and carries you home
And it’s run for the roses
As fast as you can
Your fate is delivered
Your moment’s at hand
It’s the chance of a lifetime
In a lifetime of chance
And it’s high time you joined in the dance
It’s high time you joined in the dance
Only five horses have run in the Derby off one or two starts. In addition to Leonatus the other horses were:
1946 Perfect Bahram-9th – field of 17, Race record after the Derby, 79 Starts: 15 – 21 – 13, $57,265
1949 Senecas Coin-14th – pulled up after a mile – field of 14, No record that he ever raced again.
1992 Disposal-18th in field of 18 and broke from gate 18. Career stats – 25 Starts: 2 – 2 – 2, $112,394
2000 China Visit – 6th- field of 19- broke from gate 11 -owner Godolphin – jockey- Frankie Dettori – Career stats – 14 Starts: 4 – 4 – 1, $742,960. Sold to India where he stood at stud until his death in 2017. Limited info on progeny other than a successful filly and colt.
Bert G – 1945 Kentucky Derby off one start- field of 16 – broke from gate 15 – finished 14th. Career stats 34 Starts: 1 – 8 – 1, $4,000 Died in 1947
Since 1944 a total of 64 horses have been entered in the Kentucky Derby that did not race at age two and of the 64, Perfect Bahram was entered off only two previous starts, both at age 3 and Bert G off only one start, also at age 3.
“Before Justify’s victory in 2018, the only other horses to finish in the Derby Top 3 without racing at 2 since 1937 were runner-ups Coaltown (1948), Strodes Creek (1994) and Bodemeister (2012) and third-place finishers Hampden (1946), Agitate (1974), Reinvested (1982), Curlin (2007) and Battle of Midway (2017).
Five were sent to post as the favorite (although two raced as a coupled entry): Justify (2.90-1 in 2018); Bodemeister (4.20-1 in 2012); Air Forbes Won (2.70-1 in 1982); Coaltown (0.40-1 as an entry with winner Citation in 1948); and Perfect Bahram (1.10-1 as an entry with Lord Boswell and Knockdown in 1946.”
I think this makes it even more incredible that Justify was able to pull off not only the Derby but the Triple Crown not having raced at two and coming into the Derby with only 3 lifetime start.
As all this relates to Taiba of course is that the history and the stats are not in his favor to win the Derby. We are, however, in a new age of horse racing in the United States with a trend that started a decade ago at least of colts being lightly raced at age 2 and 3. So is it possible for Taiba to dispel the ghost of Leonatus?
Lynda, nice rundown of the lightly raced and late starting Derby runners. If Taiba can win the Derby off just two career starts, both this year, then he will win the Triple Crown. My money will be against it!
Wow, Lynda, that’s some deep digging! Where did you find all those stats? I don’t think I have that book in my collection.
The McPeek and Romans horses finished 6th and 8th in The Lexington. I had expected much better for both of those horses. Not just today, but, this season. Tawny Port went off at double his morning line odds. Victor Espinoza was able to get Ethereal Road up for 4th today. The preps are over. All that’s left is waiting to see who else drops out and assign some post positions. Slow Down Andy dropped out. Steve Haskin had pointed out that he hadn’t been working.
Hi
Those were two huge points picked up by Ethereal Road in today’s Lexington Stakes leaving him with 22. Despite that seemingly low number and the fact that he ends the Road to the Kentucky Derby in 26th place, I feel he has a great chance of making the KD field.
I would love to see him blanketed in roses three weeks from today.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
He has no chance w/ 22.
Nice to hear Chad get reflective today inside the Keeneland winners area and mention Bobby Frankel his teacher.
Still remember Bobby Frankel….after he moved his operation to California….the wisdom was that if you didn’t want Frankel claiming any horses you owned then pull your horse out of a claiming race…..the guy had a knack of claiming a horse at races in southern California tracks for example $16,500 after an also ran performance and then enter the same claimed horse in a 27,500 and win.
Absolutley brilliant.
To Ross: Sounds like you don’t think Brown deserves his own wins.
Maybe you need a hearing test.
Frankel, Whittingham, and the Goat Baffert would be my trainers of all stars.
Tawny baby! $100 win/place collects $930. I think the thought that he might be more of a synthetic/turf horse caused the overlay.
Congratulations on your fine score, Lil E! I want to know who you land on at midnight before the Derby.
Thanks Ms Blacktype. And that’s a deal, I’ll follow up midnight May 6. 🙂
Sounds like it could be a lucrative rendezvous!
You must be ecstatic. Congrats! ML 5-2 favorite goes off at 5-1. Wow. TP was 5th to Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zandon in the classy Risen Star Stakes, beating more than half the field. I haven’t seen the race yet, but the chart shows he rallied off a fairly slow pace. Nice score!
Thanks Eddie. I didn’t watch the race live, just refreshed the tvg app on my phone and was shocked at the balance lol. Definitely nice to get a rare overlay like that.
Great job!
Thanks Tommy!
So Lexington done and Tawny Port got it done. Can’t wait for Steve’s thoughts next week.
Is it just me or are closers having a field day at Keeneland so far? Move up Call Me Midnight?
Looks like Slow Down Andy is out of the Derby due to a fever according to trainer O’Neill.
We’ll be hearing of more than a few defections from here on out. At the end, the last horse in the gate could have fewer than 20 Derby points.
More pace out of the race….
You have to feel for Major General as well. Stumbles at the start of the Tampa Bay Derby, 0 points and loses his unbeaten record. Would have normally won the Lexington Stakes but the track had flipped so that closers were winning everything. Not enough points to get in the Kentucky Derby but arguably better than at least half that will get in. Luck is supreme in racing. Major General looked in peak condition prior to the Lexington. Guess the Preakness is an option
I mentioned the other day that Corey Lanerie is 47 years old. Bill Shoemaker at 54 years old is the oldest jockey to ever win The Kentucky Derby with his great ride on Ferdinand in 1986. I remember that Ferdinand paid $50 with his win that day from the #1 post. Just 3 years ago, in 2019, 58 year old Jon Court became the oldest jockey to ever ride in The Kentucky Derby when he rode Long Range Toddy. Bobby Baird was 57 when he rode in the 1978 Derby. I’m sure that we all remember 77 year old Art Sherman as the oldest trainer to win The Derby with California Chrome’s win in 2014.
Ferdinand’s win in 1986 was pretty historic. Not only was Bill Shoemaker(54) the oldest jockey to win The Derby, but, trainer Charlie Whittingham(76) was also the oldest trainer to win at the time before Art Sherman(77) came along in 2014. Ferdinand won from the rail that year. In my personal opinion, the owners of California Chrome distracted fans and the media from Art Sherman’s accomplishment. No offense to those fellas.
Long Range Toddy is an interesting horse. He’s still active today at 6 years old. He just ran 2nd to Prevalence in last Saturday’s Commonwealth at Keenland. Long Range Toddy really burst onto the scene with his upset win in the 2019 Rebel at Oaklawn which put him into The Derby spotlight before he finished 6th in The Arkansas Derby and 16th in The Kentucky Derby. Long Range Toddy has never won again since his upset win in The Rebel. In fact, he’s 0 for 18 since then. He does have some 2nds and 3rds in there though. He keeps on truckin’ and bringing in checks. Long Range Toddy is a pretty good example of what The Triple Crown Trail can do to a horse. Special at two and three, kind of average at four, five, and six. Hopefully, he’s doing what he loves to do. Come back safe, buddy.
Shoe saw that hole open and he made a left turn and got it— beat Pat Day to the hole, if Day had hot yhere first—Rampage would have won by several lengths.
Looked at the Lexington one more time. If I can get 5-2 on Tawny Port I’ll put 100win 100place on him.
Think he ran the best last out, probably moved a little too early in that one, now cutting back.
And I think he can run just as good on dirt. He had no where to go on the far turn in the Risen Star, and ran on fine when he finally got space.
Wow 5 MN out he is 9/2, 1) I can’t believe his price…2) was surprised he did not scratch, after hearing Slow Down Andy scratched, making him Derby eligible
Nice horse nice play—-all 5 starts have been better than previous, probably not good enough but a good horse .
Thanks Matthew. I couldn’t believe the price either.
I have tried to stay objective. I have tried to keep an open opinion about the talent on display this year and I am here to admit that I have failed. In this quagmire of talent, I have fallen to my emotional ties to one horse, even though I swore that this was the enemy of good judgement. But the key in wagering is not to be so arrogant as to think he will win. I do strongly believe he is going to hit the board and that is enough for me. If he wins, so much the better. I will try to compile a supporting cast to support the efforts of Mo Donegal. I have no choice but to believe that he is ready and now mature enough to recognize the events, and the stage he is now being asked to perform on and I think he will rise to the occasion. He has flashed talent, he has displayed very unprofessional behavior and still managed to hit the board, but in the Wood, he pieced it together and perhaps he liked what followed. I hope he decides to give it all on the next stage and deliver a worthy performance that will thrill everyone, especially those at camp Donegal. Mo and his supporters deserve a big day and I am on board. Nothing would be finer than the Wood Memorial and this horse getting the respect they deserve.
Good pick. If he gets a clean trip, I expect him to finish first or second.
I think you speak for most when it comes to the Classic races. Everyone becomes emotionally charged and attached to this or that colt while being quite willing to sweep aside any flaws that ruffle the endearing image of red rose in May. Best of luck with Mo Donegal.
Unfortunately, it is Zandon who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. I knew that the first time I saw him run. Ha ha
Davids, I think that is a very true statement about people becoming “emotionally charged and attracted to tis or that colt” (and would add filly or gelding). I for one would be the first one to raise their hand and say “guilty”.
That is one reason I so enjoy Steve’s articles and columns, he gets it, he understands and he feels the emotional side of horse racing.
Invariably I have three and sometimes four selections of horses I think could win. This year for example, I think either Taiba or Messier will win. Hard to mess with Baffert’s speed demons even if one has had only two races. Zandon or Epicenter are the two that I think have the best shots to prevail over the Baffert duo. White Abarrio is a heart horse. The back story on him and his trainer just tugs at my heartstrings. And then there is Tiz THe Bomb, somewhat of a mystery horse and could pull off an upset.
I am partial to closers, always have been. Most every year I go back and watch each of Secretariat’s Classic races and it still takes my breath away to watch him come from the back and win the Derby and the Preakness.
Horse racing has changed so much in the past 20 or so years. The focus on breeding for speed at the sacrifice of stamina and the making of high dollar stud deals before the dirt is even picked out of their hooves just leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
But, alas, it is what it is now and we can all either go along with the oldest sport in America now being a multi-billion dollar industry or we can walk away.
Awhile back I made such a decision based on everything that has been going on in recent years but as it has happened before when I have walked away, I am lured back by Derby fever.
Learning yesterday about what happened to Laoban has given me pause once again as to whether or not I can truly ever enjoy this “sport” with the same passion I had as a child.
Lynda, ever since I saw the movie “Kentucky” I’ve been hooked at the emotional level to the Kentucky Derby and, as you wrote, Steve Haskin’s narrative writing has consistently enhanced the mystique of the Kentucky Derby. Not having Steve’s commentary on the Derby Trail will diminish that experience substantially. It’s been like going to the races with Steve.
For me, the bloodlines/sales has always been just as exciting/enthralling as the racing itself so becoming disillusioned with racing has been tempered by visiting the farms/sales. Moreover, European racing, and to a lesser degree Australian racing, offers a softer aspect than US racing.
Zandon looked very good in the Bluegrass and yes he will be a favorite, if not the favorite. He is a very smart and determined runner and I do expect him to be in the mix. Weather, post draw, the pace and “the trip” will play into the winning run and there is no telling who will get the best of that until the gates open. I do like that both Zandon and Mo Donegal seem to be capable of overcoming crowds and good paces. This is shaping up to be a fine betting race. I would be derelict if I did not mention my respect for Epicenter.
Wouldn’t it be ironic that, after so many years hoping the Remsen Stakes would impact in Kentucky, then, over the past decade or so just dismissing the Remsen Stakes as irrelevant in Kentucky, that Zandon and Mo Donegal were to fight out the finish of the Kentucky Derby. Funnier things have happened…
Agree EL.
Steve
Do believe Jose Ortiz will remain aboard Simplification in the KD, or opt for Early Voting to appease Chad Brown?
Hi Bill, Chad and Jose will have no problem. Jose will choose the horse he wants to ride, if there is a choice, and Chad will be fine with it. They’re both professional.
Hi Tom’s Kid
I agree, both are professional, but the fact that Jose Ortiz rides a lot for Chad Brown, more so than he rides for Antonio Sano, could influence his decision. I’m all in on Simplification, so I’m hopeful he opts for the Sano colt.
I was very impressed with Early Voting’s performance in the Wood, it wouldn’t surprise me if Ortiz opts for him in the Derby.
Jose Ortiz is facing a major decision which could have far reaching effects. Hopefully, Ortiz will announce his choice in the near future.
Rumor has it Early Voting will opt for the Preakness, and not run in the KD. Suffice to say Jose Ortiz will ride Simplification in the Kentucky Derby.
That’s what I heard as well. After Epicenter, Zandon and Mo Donegal I’m not sure which others I will use – most likely some tickets with Messier and Taiba. I’m inclined to call this edition Wide Open!
You might consider taking a long look at Zozos. He’s my longshot that I’ll be using some of my superfecta tickets.
He did all the dirty work in the Louisiana Derby, only to be passed late by Epicenter. Zozos’ pedigree reflects speed on top and stamina on the bottom, and he’s a homebred which I consider a plus, (based on past KD winners that were homebred). BTW, Zozos could carry the X-Factor large heart gene, tracking back to Pleasant Colony on the dam side.
I’ll put a little on Zozos for fun. The owners are mainstays at Canterbury, super people, gave a huge donation to build a chapel for the backside. When I worked at Canterbury as a teller Barry always treated everyone very well and tipped! He knew how to build karma.
That’s good to hear Tom’s Kid.
In my view at three weeks out from the Derby, the top win contenders are Zandon, Epicenter, and Smile Happy. No surprises there. But this could be the deepest field in recent memory, and perhaps another half dozen colts are under consideration at the right price. Here’s hoping they all stay healthy and that connections make the best possible decisions for their horses.
It’s just a coincidence that my top 3 are the same as Steve’s top 3. 😉
I thought 2012 was deep, and I had the right one! But I was on I’ll Have Another after watching him work n February, his ears told the story, he was waiting on his rider, “WELL? I’m WAITING”……when rider dropped his hands horse dropped his head! 4-1 SA Derby….15-1 KY Derby….7/2 Preakness he was my equine ATM. machine!
“Equine ATM machine”, very clever Matthew, I think I’ll start using that!
Are you a drinker or just a good handicapper? haha
I was thinking about last year’s Derby and the 4 horses spread across the track in the stretch. Four interesting trainers there. Churchill seemed to really make a statement by coming down so hard on BB & Medina Spirit after that race. I hope we have a controversy free Derby this year with no DQs.
Don’t we all!
Westly Ward is their darling, I guess, and he does well in the Royal Ascot races …but they hate Bob!
Today’s Maker’s Mark Mile at Keenland should be a Saturday race. It’s that good. With the Oaks/Derby Bet-A-Palooza coming up in just 3 weeks, I’ll try to show some restraint.
Racing Form pps shows 10 races for Smooth Like Strait—5gr1 5 gr2….9 exacta finishes, one (neck) 3rd saddle slipped biggest losing margin 1/2 length..
So the Blue Grass was run slow early and slow late. I would argue that Zandon should have came home faster than 24.1 and 12.1 after running so slow early. So while the win was visually striking, I don’t think it was a particularly strong performance.
Not trying to hate on Zandon, I posted last week that he was the most likely winner of all the major preps last weekend. I just think the Blue Grass was weaker than it looked, so he’s going to have to take a substantial jump forward in the derby to win.
Track wasn’t fast..
No excuses 🙂
Excuses for what horse won going away?
You mean no excuses for the slow time? There were patches of standing water, track listed as muddy….
Agree!
I meant that as a joke Matthew. Your comment was legit.
Track was listed as “Good” for the Blue Grass
Wrong!
Just wondering, who are, in your view, the “particularly strong” performances to determine the best chances for the Kentucky Derby?
Hi
I like Ethereal Road in the Lexington and, if he qualifies, I like him along with Smile Happy in the Derby. A three week break between the Lexington and the Derby feels like the right amount of time between starts for a colt heading to Louisville.
No horse yet scares me or excites me, mainly a factor of some nice colts having had too few starts. For example, I could see Taiba winning the KD by three, I could also see him finishing mid-pack.
As I recently told Nelson Maan, the race that I am really looking forward to is the Oaks. The Kathleen O / Secret Oath matchup has me more excited than any two starters scheduled for the Derby.
greg (fan of Damascus)
Speaking of Nelson, where is the man? Forgive the pun.
Just looked at the DRF Derby Watch 3 of the top ten are Gun Runners!
And 3 of the top 11 are Gun Runners in the all-important Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings. 🙂
Looking at Steve’s list, I think he has the top 9 right, even though I would change the order a bit. I think Tiz the Bomb belongs in the 10 spot, and after that is the cliff/drop off/no thank you.
Charge It is way too green to handle the derby. And there’s too many quality horses for Early Voting to fend off imo.
I can predict 19 are going to be beaten.
I’ve been thinking about Smile Happy. Steve Haskin still has him ranked at #3 on his list and I think that is correct. I believe the winner will be Epicenter, Smile Happy, Zandon, or Mo Donegal. I won’t lock in on one horse until post positions are drawn. Smile Happy could end up as the 4th or even the 5th favorite. 8-1 or more sounds like a juicy price to me. He hasn’t run bad at all in his 2 starts this year while facing both Epicenter and Zandon(twice). He ran 2nd to Epicenter in The Risen Star with a ride from Corey Lanerie that even Steve Haskin questioned at the time. No matter, no one was beating Epicenter that day IMO. He drew an outside post in The Bluegrass and was caught wide while finishing 2nd to Zandon. I hope that Kenny McPeek sticks with Corey Lanerie for The Derby. Lanerie is 47 years old now and only winning at 6% this year. But, Corey Lanerie knows Churchill like the back of his hand and I think a veteran patient jockey is just the right jockey for Smile Happy. Without knowing the post positions, I think that Epicenter and Smile Happy are the 2 horses most likely to hit the board on Derby Day. Lanerie and Smile Happy are due for just the right trip which could put them in the winner’s circle on May 7th.
If I remember correctly, didn’t Corey Lanerie finish 2nd or 3rd in The Derby for Steve Asmussen from the #1 post on Looking at Lee? I better double check that.
Lookin’ at Lee ran 2nd in The Derby in 2017 with Lanerie. Lookin’ at Lee then ran 4th in The Preakness and 7th in The Belmont. He was a better horse than I remembered. Lookin at Lee only won 1 of 13 races after that 2017 Derby and retired after his 5-year old season in 2019. Like so many horses, he was precocious at 2 and 3. At 4 and 5 other late developing horses surpassed him. But, they can’t take that 2nd in the 2017 Derby away from him.
Yes, he did!!! Always Dreaming won it and Looking at Lee came in second for Asmussen.
Tommy, I’m with you on two of the horses you mentioned. Also, I jumped off Country House after he drew #20. Never again. 🙂
TommyMc- one thing I’ve noticed is that Corey will definitely try to save as much ground possible. I also see he won the 6th yesterday at Kee on a horse who was named as the same as a poster I used to see comment here, El Kabong.
What ever happened to El Kabong?
Not saying your wrong, but u might be putting in too much stock with horses who ran against each other. If you overvalue a particular race then the horses you like may not win.
TWO from the Dubai Derby, I don’t think that race deserves two Derby slots.
I agree with you and the same with the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Some of those horsrs in the Jeff Ruby Steaks might end up as steaks….(joking)
Aftercare is a real problem that racing has to face up to, everywhere. Society values have changed dramatically over the past 2 decades.
14 gelding felds, on a ten race Hong Kong card…..where could they go, when they can no longer race?..
Excellent point.
Curious as to why you feel this way. Do you feel the same about Japan having two qualifying races?
Alsp, the Jeff Ruby Stakes, your reasoning behind that?
My 2 cents: There can be only one invitee from Japan and one from Europe. I’m OK with that. Assigning 170 Derby points to the Ruby Stakes that has G3 status and is run on synthetic is unwarranted. Likewise, the UAE Derby has had no impact on the Ky Derby in its relatively short history and does not deserve its status.
Jeff Ruby Steaks point allocation was increased because Turfway Park was very accommodating to CD Inc for change their racing calendar during the pandemic so that the Kentucky Derby could be run in the fall of that year. Hence Jeff Ruby Steaks has been upgraded as a Second Leg feature.
UAE Derby was inserted into the foray is an entrance valve for European and Japanese horses which CD Inc is wanting to have in the field for international exposure and the possibility of increasing the betting pools from Asia.
CDI owns Turfway Park.
Your last sentence says it all, bigger betting pools..
Lynda, for most US owner/breeders/trainers winning or even competing in the Kentucky Derby is the high point of their investment with horse racing. The foreign invitations are more about a betting pool, which is important as well, than the history of the Kentucky Derby. The local guy/lady misses out on a chance of a life time.
The UAE Derby and the Jeff Ruby Steaks are fine with 1 automatic allocation into the Derby but 2 is over generous.
Steaks
The Oaks and Derby post position draws will be on the same day: Monday, May 2nd at 2pm EST. The earlier that we can get the PPs for those 27 races the better.
Tommy, Thanks for the wagering info for the Oaks and Derby! Did you happen to notice the posted time for the race before the derby and the derby…..unless it’s a typo….5:27 for race 11 and 6:57 for the Derby!! An hour and a half!!! I don’t remember it being 90 minutes before, thought it was closer to an hour? They’re really stretching it out!
Not only that—the race before The Derby is on turf….long whole between dirt races. A hot day would make it difficult to keep the track from getting deep….
Yes, I noticed that myself. An hour and a half seems crazy. But, that’s what the Churchill website says. I also seem to remember that it used to be an hour between the The Woodford Reserve and The Derby. It’s going to be a longgggggg day.
It’s why some Derbies are so slow! 2 1/2 hours between dirt races, on warm days track gets cuppy….
The Kentucky Oaks is only 3 weeks from tomorrow. Get plenty of rest. You’re going to need it. The Oaks Day card is 13 races with the first race at 10:30am and race #13 at 7pm. That’s 8 1/2 hours of action that features 4 pick-5s, 4 pick-4s, a pick-6, a 2-day pick-6, an Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick-3, and Oaks/Derby Doubles.
Derby Day kicks off with the first race also at 10:30am with 14 races, the 14th and final race at 8:30pm(their lights will come into play). That’s a 10 hour day of action which features 4 pick-5s, 4 pick-4s, a pick-6, an all-dirt pick-5(new bet), and an
all 3-year old pick-3(new bet) using The American Turf, The Pat Day Mile, and The Derby.
Wow! Churchill is pulling out all the stops and clearly wants to get every last penny out of our pockets and into play.
One thing becomes crystal clear: I’m going to need a bigger bankroll.
That’s 12:30 am here in Melbourne.
I can’t argue with this list, though personally, I’m keeping Epicenter #1 on mine. Talent-wise, he and Zandon appear to be very close, but I think Epicenter’s running style is more likely to keep him out of trouble in a 20-horse field.
He probably should be No. 1 and normally would be but as I said Im letting sentimentality get in the way as much as I hated doing it.
Call Me Midnight in the Lexington should be worth playing. Dead fit closer cutting back, ran down Epicenter in the LeComte.
Got to like Tawny Port in the Lexington right? If he simply can’t run on dirt, what’s the point of entering him here? That’s an honest question, maybe there’s something I’m missing/not considering.
I read on BH this morning that even though he has the points to get in the Derby, he has to run well in the Lexington to justify continuing onto the Derby.
Hi Lynda, since my post i found 2 YouTube interviews with Brad Cox. In one he pretty much said he’s more of a turf horse. And in the other he said the owner really wants him to run in the derby. For those reasons I’ll pass on him in the Lexington. Though I do think he ran the best last race of all entered.
LOL, it would make life simpler if trainer and owner were on the same song sheet, wouldn’t it?
I’ve been finding out tidbits about Taiba— horse knows how to turn off and wait, only works hard if there is company, when he knows it’s a race, and he terrorized Bob’s older guys…
Working alone he doesn’t go as fast….Gary Young advised in the buy, he has picked out some real good ones, Bob has the best…
Steve Haskin-
Hello. Good job putting together another ranking with nearly all of the prep races completed. I’m looking for a long shot play in KD 2022. Not sure what Chad Brown has up his sleeve with Early Voting. I’ve come to realize that Brown is very guarded, protective, and cautious when spotting his young horses for an upcoming race.
So in the event he opts out of the Derby, I came up with the UAE Derby winner, Crown Pride. As you mentioned in your KD analysis, Crown Pride shows inbreeding to Sunday Silence 3S x 4D. His bloodlines also has Seattle Slew and Secretariat in his third and fifth generations. Through his first five generations, Crown Pride has ten Triple Crown wins in his pedigree. On the grass racing end, colt has three Breeder’s Cup Mile victories in his pedigree via Miesque and Last Tycoon. Also, he lists Dancing Brave, a Grade I distance sire influence, in his fifth generation. Think he has enough pedigree pop for the Derby. But, not convinced he can handle the CD dirt element.
I read that he has been sent to Churchill Downs four weeks in advance to prepare for his next race. In the next three weeks, could you put Crown Pride through the eye test? If he adapts to his new surroundings, he might be worth a shot. I don’t wager large sums and will make a bet if the odds are right and the post position draw is good.
Thanks for your coverage of KD 2022.
7.5 Furlongs
I certainly cant dismiss him. Ill be watching him closely
Yes, Steve, just as Dinah Washington’s hit record “What a Diff’rence a Day Makes!” signaled the entrance of Miss “D” to the stage, the breakout win in the Blue Grass Stakes signaled the lethal partnership of Flavian Prat and Zandon on to the Kentucky Derby platform. Many, have been waiting for the talented colt to finally put it all together and in the Blue Grass Stakes Zandon did it in spades.
In that emphatic win Zandon not only became Steve Haskin’s ‘numero uno’ the colt cemented himself as the colt to beat in the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown new how special this colt was and, finally, that promise was delivered at Keeneland. Now, settled in at Keeneland, Zandon prepares for his triumphal assault on Churchill Downs with Steve Haskin trumpeting his virtues to the nonbelievers. Take heed!
Let’s not get too carried away though, overconfidence could spoil the party. Ha ha!! Taiba looks dangerous but having watched nearly every race Needmore Flattery ran in, 10f might be a pinch too far for her sparkling son. The others major contenders appear to be, in any order: White Abarrio, Epicenter, Charge It, Mo Donegal, Messier, and Smile Happy. Arguably though, bad post position could be Zandon’s biggest hurdle.
Thanks again Steve, all the pieces of the puzzle are finally coming together. Perhaps, the Lexington Stakes will throw up a wild card so nothing is fully settled yet. Onward to the Twin Towers.
We are approaching two weeks since Secret Oath’s start in the ARK Derby. If she recovered well we should see something from her on the work tab by the weekend or at the least… very early next week.
With that performance by Nest this weekend and the Upstart filly laying in wait, she may be facing a task with the Oaks field more difficult than the one she encountered with colts at Oaklawn. Tick Tock…
Dale Romans sends out Howling Time in Saturday’s Lexington. Very similar to Kenny McPeek’s Rattle N Roll, Howling Time won his first 2 starts at Churchill and looked like a champ doing it. He then went into The Kentucky Jockey Club which turned out to be a very “key race”. Howling Time went off at 2-1 that night against the likes of Smile Happy, Classic Causeway, White Abarrio, and some other toughies. He set the pace into the stretch in that race before fading to 5th in the 11-horse field while running against the closer’s bias. Howling Time really disappointed in The Fountain of Youth when he went off at 8-1 against top company in his return from a 3 month layoff. When I say “disappointed”, I’m being kind. He finished ninth, 23+ lengths behind the winner, Simplification. That was the race where High Oak and Galt didn’t finish the race after an ugly spill on the far turn. The only reason that “The Howler” didn’t finish last. But, I remember that he had been working up a storm going into that race. Sure enough, his 3 workouts going into The Fountain of Youth were a bullet :59, a bullet :46.3, and a bullet :58.2 just the Saturday before The Fountain of Youth. :58.2????? That’s an American Pharoah type of workout. I can’t help but wonder if he left his FoY race out on the training track the Saturday morning before the race. Do I love Howling Time in The Lexington? Mixed feelings. He comes into The Lexington with 3 solid and much more reasonable workouts. The price should be right. He might be worth a play at 12-1 or better. Call Me Midnight drew way outside. Tawny Port is returning only 2 weeks after running 2nd to Tiz the Bomb in Turfway’s Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes run over synthetic track. In fact, Tawny Port has only run on dirt once and didn’t hit the board. No offense, but I’ve seen enough of McPeek’s Dash Attack. Strava could be interesting. He cost a whopping $825,000 and was marooned in the outside gate in his last race when he also broke through the starting gate before the race. He went off at only 3-1 against Cyberknife in that race. I’m not sure where Todd Pletcher is at with Major General. He stumbled out of the gate in The Tampa Derby at only 4-1 against big favorite Classic Causeway. That was the “General’s” first race in 6 months. Ethereal Road comes out of races with those slowpokes at Oaklawn. No offense. I give Howling Time a shot here and I might play him straight up. I’ll definitely use him in multi-race wagers.
Sorry for writing a book. Sometimes my old fingers go crazy while typing on my keyboard. I should have broke that post up into chapters.
Howling time is full of talent but visually he strikes me as a turf miler.
No offense taken re: Dash Attack… “You work your side of the street and I’ll work mine” Detective Bullitt to Walter Chalmers. (1968)
Post positions for the Lexington are out.
1
Midnight Chrome
California Chrome – Tipsy At Midnight
J:Jose L. Ortiz
T:John C. Servis
B:New Dawn Stable, LLC & Deo Volente Farms
O:Alexandria Stable (Charles Asensio)
2
In Due Time
Not This Time – Sweet Sweet Annie
Keeneland Sales Graduate
3YO Colt
J:Paco Lopez
T:Kelly J. Breen
B:Gary & Mary West Stables Inc.
O:Edge Racing (Joe Moran), Medallion Racing (Phillip Shelton) and Parkland Thoroughbreds (Steve Weston)
3
We All See It
Street Sense – Krissy’s Candy
J:Luis Saez
T:Eddie Kenneally
B:Wayne Lyster, Gray Lyster & Bryan Lyster
O:Anderson Stables, LLC (Brad Anderson) and Homewrecker Racing, LLC (Ricki and Ron Rashinski)
4
Ethereal Road
Quality Road – Sustained
J:Victor Espinoza
T:D. Wayne Lukas
B:Paul Pompa Jr.
O:Julie Gilbert and Aaron Sones
5
Howling Time
Not This Time – Werewolf
J:Joseph Talamo
T:Dale L. Romans
B:Springhouse Farm
O:Albaugh Family Stables, LLC (Dennis Albaugh)
6
Skate to Heaven
Laoban – Diamond Dona
J:David Cohen
T:Robertino Diodoro
B:Southern Equine Stables, LLC
O:Cypress Creek Equine (Kevin Moody), Rick Wiest and Clayton Wiest
7
Major General
Constitution – No Mo Lemons
J:Irad Ortiz, Jr.
T:Todd A. Pletcher
B:Circular Road Breeders
O:WinStar Farm, LLC (Kenny Troutt) and Siena Farm, LLC (Anthony Manganaro)
8
Strava
J:Tyler Gaffalione
T:Dallas Stewart
B:WinStar Farm, LLC
O:WinStar Farm, LLC (Kenny Troutt), Siena Farm, LLC (Anthony Manganaro) and Denny Crum
9
Tawny Port
Pioneerof the Nile – Livi Makenzie
J:Florent Geroux
T:Brad H. Cox
B:WinStar Farm, LLC
O:Peachtree Stable (John Fort)
10
Dash Attack
Munnings – Cerce Cay
J:Flavien Prat
T:Kenneth G. McPeek
B:Catalyst Stable & Magdalena Racing
O:Catalyst Stable (Rick Greenberg), Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek, et al.), Kevin Pollard and Patty Slevin
11
Call Me Midnight
Midnight Lute – Overseen
J:James Graham
T:J. Keith Desormeaux
B:Hartwell Farm, Inc
O:Peter L. Cantrell and Benjamin Gase
Looks like perfect weather as well – some wind.
Yes, much better than the weather for the Blue Grass.
D Wayne Lukas not only took Luis Contreras off of Secret Oath, but, also Ethereal Road. Victor Espinoza in from California to ride Ethereal Road in The Lexington.
I’m not sure she could have made a big impact in the Kentucky Derby but Contrearas gave the filly a poor ride in the Arkansas Derby so, easy to understand that a change is in order.
With that kind of kick and a better ride I believe she would have made an impact. See how she does in the Oaks.
Call Me Midnight drew the far outside #11 post for The Lexington. Howling Time and Major General will be trying to rebound from terrible finishes in their last races. Major General had an excuse when he stumbled at the start. Howling Time???????
In Due Time and Paco Lopez make an appearance at Keenland for The Lexington and might even go favored.
I think that it was Paco Lopez and In Due Time that caused all the trouble in The Fountain of Youth. Lopez was suspended even though the horse and rider were not DQ’d in the race.
We’ve not seen the best of Dash Attack IMO. Interesting Kenneth secures Pratt as his pilot on Saturday. In Due Time is one of the nicer colts by his knock out sire… Not This Time. In Due Time has been somewhat later developing (As some Curlin blood does) but he’s all there physically and should continue to progress for is connections and backers in the future. The Lexington Stakes developed into a very nice final 400K race to rap up the KD road to the Derby.
It is a good race and I think that In Due Time might be the horse to beat.
#1 Midnight Chrome
#2 In Due Time
#7 Major General…..Box ’em!
Thanks for this Steve always love reading them, I am still on the fence, hope to pick one soon! Rewatching races!
I really wish Taiba had been put in a NW1X, then crushed the Preakness, this is a bridge too far, if he wins THEN WHAT? 2 weeks Preakness? I yhink this is a special animal, and I fear they might ruin him, by making him prove it….I’ve seen this movie before..
Maybe they’ll look at the history book to find that the only horse to win the Derby after just two starts was Leonatus in 1883. And Leonatus raced once as a 2 year old. But it sure does look like he’s going to Louisville. How could they not after that performance at SA. At best, Taiba has less than a 20% chance of winning the Derby, so a loss would rule out the Preakness just two weeks later.
I know! I’m also proud to say I not only scooped you, EddieF, but Jay Privman at DRF by noting that Leonatus was the only Derby winner to win it after only two starts. I think it’s somewhere way down in the comments. No one noticed, of course.
I’m sooo sorry, Ms. B. I’m away from home and not able to comb through all of the comments as I usually do. Just watch…Taiba blows away the field and becomes the latest colt to buck Derby history! But it won’t be with MY money. 😉
No need to apologize, Eddie! Like I said, I am neither Steve Haskin, Jay Privman, nor you.
This year I’m learning toward Epicenter as the most logical winner, but if Zandon wins I’ll be THRILLED. Still think a Zandon/Mo Donegal exacta could be a good bet.
More agonizing over exotics later.
BB knows what he is doing. The GOAT controlling things on the backside
He could be the greatest “dirt trainer” of all-time if …………. well, you know.
Good one! lol
Steve Asmussen may be 0 for 23 with all of his Derby starters, but Todd Pletcher is 0 for 36 with Derby starters on a fast track. 😮
I thought about that….both were sort of fluky…but a broken clock is right twice a day—I’m calling one of the greatest trainers a broken clock!…
I dare you to tell him that face to face! 😉
Love interesting stats like that. I’m curious to know how many of those runners had a realistic chance of winning though.
Laura Lantham, sorry for delayed response, I just now saw your question. The jockey for Crown Pride in the UAE Derby was Damian Lane.
I know little about him other than he is young and that he is based in Australia. He seems to travel around to different countries. Has spent time in Japan. Has also ridden for Chris Waller (Winx’s trainer). Do not see that he has ever ridden in the United States or an American trainer in any of the International races.
Could be a factor I suppose if he rides Crown Pride in the Derby (no experience on American dirt tracks which is a totally different game as we all know).
Additionally I have not read or heard who will be riding Crown Pride in the Derby.
International jockeys do quite well I think on turf races in the United States but as I recall they have not had much success on the dirt tracks. I stand to be corrected on all this however.
Thank you. I agree the international riders do well here on the turf, but our dirt tracks are a whole different ball game. I also will be waiting to hear who picks up that ride.
Steve, in week 10 you wrote the following about Epicenter… “If there is an Always Dreaming, Justify, Maximum Security, Authentic, or Medina Spirit in this year’s Derby it looks like him.”
I’d like to take that one step further and say the more I watch his Louisiana, the more I think he could be Barbaro in this derby. I mean… close up to a good pace, 24 splits all around, finishing in 18.2 easing up, and seeming to want to go around again in the gallop out.
It just feels like the tip of the iceberg to me. And based on what you wrote about his pedigree, I see triple crown potential.
Barbaro ran a 111 BSF when he won The Derby back in 2006. The best Beyer Speed Figure of the last 19 years. I’m figuring Epicenter for a 104 or 106 which could be good enough to win the race against the group that will likely line up against him on May 7th at Churchill Downs.
Great fact Tommy, 19 years, I had no idea. Most dominant derby victory I’ve ever seen, so he’s my gold standard.
I wanted my Derby horse to be Secret Oath. But sadly that wasn’t meant to be, so she will have to be my Oaks horse even though no horse this year has made my heart beat faster then she did with her amazing turn of foot in the Arkansas Derby after the bad trip she had.
However, after watching and rewatching all the major prep races the Derby contender that has learned from his races and impressed me the most is Zandon! I did wonder about his pedigree, compared to some other Kentucky Derby contenders this year, but I saw a photo of him winning the Blue Grass and his ears were up and he looked fantastic, like a future Derby winner!
On another note, I did feel sad to see Morello’s performance in the Wood Memorial. Sounds like he lost a shoe and hit the gate. He is a Classic Empire baby and I had so much hope for him. Hope he heals up soon and Un Ojo too from his scrapes and cuts in the Arkansas Derby because of Cyberknife/Barber Road.
My daughter Eva is going with the horse and name she has liked all along, Smile Happy. Glad to see you still holding him in high regard too.
Lovely post!
Steve, your #1, Zandon, has the only perfect score in my Derby Winner’s Profile. Congratulations! 🙂
Glad to hear it whatever it is.
LOL. I will take it to my grave.
Brisnet Speed Figures
Zandon 103
Taiba 111
Mo Donegal 111
Equibase sp. figures:
107 – Zandon
103 – Mo Donegal
102 – Taiba
So much for sped figures. Thoro Graphs are interesting so far, two still pending
Was hoping you’d give them out for the Derby horses.
I do every week
Often in the past 30+ years, a big number in the final prep doesn’t bode well for the Derby. In addition, a big improvement from the penultimate prep screams bounce. Mo Donegal improved a whopping 19 Brisnet points. Early Voting likely had a similar jump.
Considering Mo Donegal’s 2nd race from a layoff of 1-1/16 to 1-1/8 with maturity from 2 to 3, + the time of his Wood victory, I consider his Brisnet 111 legit, going into the KD if he stays healthy.
Thanks. Which figures does Steve like?
The one I keep quoting. Thoro Graph
Let’s play the game of predicting final derby odds. Me thinks…
Zandon 3-1
Epicenter 7/2
Taiba 9/2
Tiz the Bomb 6/1 (wise guy horse)
Mo Donegal 8-1
White Abarrio 8-1
Messier 10-1
Smile Happy 12-1
Cyberknife 12-1
Simplification 15-1
Epicenter MIGHT go under 5-1, but I’m leaning for NOBODY going off under 5-1!
This looks like a great trifecta betting opportunity to me.
Highest odds ever for a post-time Derby favorite: 6-1 for Lookin At Lucky and Harlan’s Holiday.
That’s because Lookin’ at Lucky drew the rail. I think he would have been 3-1 with a better post position.
I wouldn’t think that a bad post draw would double the odds. More likely he was 6-1 because he finished 3rd by 6 lengths in the SA Derby.
Tiz the Bomb at least double those odds…even as the wise guy horse.
You could be right Eddie. But I’m predicting 15-1 ml and bet down in half. He had a lot of fans before the Jeff Ruby and I’m sure some new ones after. I think the casual fan loves a closer in the derby. He has a great name. And he has 5 wins and 1 second in 8 starts. Looks like a popular item on the menu to me.
I think there could be quite a few so-called wise-guy horse bet down. There will also likely be a few solid closers. You have 10 horses at 15-1 or less. Here’s the rundown from the last 10 May Derbies for the number of horses that went off at odds of 15-1 or lower:
2021 – 7
2019 – 6
2018 – 8
2017 – 7
2016 – 6
2015 – 8
2014 – 5
2013 – 8
2012 – 9
2011 – 8
Those odds are too low! Tiz the Bomb will be at least 12-1 probably and the rest longer as well.
Difficult game to play without knowing post positions. Will Zandon and Epicenter be 3-1 & 7/2 from posts #1 and #20? But, I’m a sport.
Epicenter 9/2
Zandon 5-1
Taiba 8-1
Mo Donegal 10-1
Messier 12-1
Smile Happy 12-1
Charge It 15-1 -Wise Guy Horse
White Abarrio 18-1
Cyberknife 20-1
Simplification 22-1
Zozos 25-1
Everybody else 30-1+
Tiz the Bomb 25-1
I really appreciate all of the fine writing I get to consume every week on the Derby Trail from these postings, both from our primary blogger and author Steve Haskin and from all of the commentators. I so look forward to the column each week! After reading through the rankings and the comments each week and being unable to really separate the top runners this year, I imagine that I will have to bet a ton of combos to even have a chance to get the exacta, tri or super. All things considered, I like best Mo Donegal, Zandon, Taiba and Tiz the Bomb, but I may have to toss in Early Voting, Epicenter and Messier somehow. This may be the most confusing Derby year yet in the new century, (at least for me it is) and thus, plopping a chunk on the “freak” may be my fall-back position, with a sentimental longshot bet on White Abarrio and one for the money on Zozos. What do you all think?
Thanks for the kind words Sally
You’re welcome, Steve.
I’ve followed you for centuries, Steve, I remember Derby Doings! Back in the day when the Racing Form was a heckuva deal! Peb, Haskin, Hirsch OH MY!
Ha ha! Not to forget “Thoroughbred Times” as well.
Wow you really go way back. Thanks for sticking with me
Good read Mr. Haskin.
Taiba is getting plenty of attention after his big win in The Santa Anita Derby. Taiba has only 2 starts and has won both of them. Taiba will be bucking “The Curse of Apollo” by never having raced as a 2-year old. Justify supposedly broke “The Apollo Curse” with his Derby win in 2018. Did he break the curse or simply defy the curse? It was 136 years between Apollo’s win in 1882 and Justify’s victory in 2018. Now, 4 years later, “The Apollo Curse” stands at 1 for 139. Until I see a trend of horses that were unraced at two winning The Kentucky Derby, I will argue that “the Apollo Curse” is alive and well. 1 for 139 is about a .72% strike rate. Who wants to bet a horse with a negative stat that says he has less than a 1% chance of winning? I don’t. Speed figures have taken over for solid handicapping. People will see Taiba’s 103 BSF, perfect 2 for 2 record, and know that he comes from Kentucky Derby specialist BB’s barn(no matter what the program says). What are his Derby odds likely to be? 4th choice and maybe 10-1 or even less? I’ll have to risk my money elsewhere. I wouldn’t be afraid to use Taiba in Trifectas or Supers though. I don’t have any stats that say he can’t hit the board. If I’m wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time that I lost in The Kentucky Derby.
I would think he’d be a bounce candidate…in a normal world
If he wins I likely lose….but the walk into the winners circle would be awesome to see!
Stats are facts but the pace makes the race. I don’t see much wooed signed on again, not at Tiaba level and if Epicenter goes: Tiaba will be in his flank. Baffert has a real good chance for his 8th derby. 10-1 would be a steal on either of his horses. Messier needed the race so he will come stronger this time around.
Not much speed signed up…typo
Good Luck!
Jeff, even Baffert’s publicist wouldn’t make a statement like that. Baffert has 6 Derby wins, and he is not eligible to even have a runner this year.
He’s wearing blinkers Eddie ……. as usual!
Been reading comments (a couple from so called racing experts) on other sites that some are not buying that Forbidden Kingdom does not have an epiglottis issue and that it is being used as an excuse that the colt cannot run ten furlongs and will not have to pay out $4 million to the MyRacehorse owners.
I find this to be troubling.
Richard Mandella is one of the most respected trainers in the United States and I do think for one second that he would ever be a part of such a scheme.
Conspiracy theories are the bane of the internet world, and then there is fake news.
Davids, Indeed! However some of the individuals making these comments are experienced, knowledgeable commentators.
Lynda, as a young lad, I picked up quite quickly Bob Dylan’s inference that “money doesn’t talk it swears.”
We can almost always find pearls of wisdom in Dylan’s poetic lyrics.
If he had quit like he did farther into the race maybe not the ulcer they thought, but he stopped early on. The horse has an issue of some kind. Give them time to figure it out. I agree Mandella wouldn’t do that.
Being reported that Morello hit the gate in the start and threw a shoe and that because he has such bad start, jockey did not push him. He has enough points to run in the Derby and is being shipped to Churchill Downs.
If they run Morello back in The Derby, his odds should be very good. He had so much trouble in The Wood that I will throw that race out of my handicapping. The bad news is that we didn’t get the 2-turn question answered. While Morello won’t be my Derby horse, I might use him in a trifecta or a superfecta. Steve Asmussen has never won The Kentucky Derby. What better way to break that streak than to run first and second with Epicenter and Morello? If they both run, I better buy a $5 exacta box on that one.
You are correct, Steve A has won most everything else including a Belmont and Preakness, but never a Derby. Stand to be corrected of course but I think he came closest in the Derby with Gun Runner (by the way, my pick to win the Derby that year).
Came 2nd with Nehro in 2011….
Good point, Lynda. Asmussen is WAY overdue. I really like Zandon, but I know Epicenter will be right there. I think Epi is gonna be my pick for that reason. I’m willing to try logic over emotion this year.
Thanks!
Yes, the ill-fated Nehro who died from colic at age 5. Gorgeous horse and I really liked him.
Sorry, this comment was supposed to be a response to Matthew W.
Thanks Ms Blacktype.
Both Epicenter and Zandon check off all my little boxes.
On another note, saw a photo of Morello this morning (no saddle, blanket etc). He really is a nice looking horse. A somewhat unusual chestnut color.
Good to hear he was OK from the race and he is going to be given a chance to run in Derby depending on how he trains.
Only inbred to Mr Prospector back through 5 generations. I like that.
His pedigree certainly speaks to him being able to go two turns with no problem.
He will never win one, as I said long ago.
Never thought I’d see the day when a 2-start horse would be one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. While I like Taiba and would not be at all disappointed if he wins, I sure hope this is not a continuation of the trend of fewer and fewer starts for our Derby horses. Will it reach the point where some multi-million dollar yearling purchase will make his debut in the Derby? There is no chance to lay a foundation, teach a horse how to actually race, and give the fans an opportunity to learn more about their favorites with this new pattern.
On the other hand, you are quite right, Steve: It would be so sweet to see the stuffed shirts at Churchill Downs have to present the trophy to Amr Zedan, with full knowledge of the enormous influence Baffert has had on Taiban’s early career. All CDI’s attempts to erase any trace of Medina Spirit’s win, and now this? That would be the most awkward Derby moment since the poor individual who had to snatch back the roses from Mary West’s grasp after the DQ of Maximum Security.
Ironic, also that you mention Maximum Security, who left the Servis barn with a cloud of suspicion—was winning grade 1’s off of :56 sec half mile works….and Bob took him and put him in his hard works program. Won a gr1…a gr2….and 2nd in a gr1..
The bounce factor is in play, for Taiba, the 6-horse field angle not so much—small sized Santa Anita Derby winners have won plenty of Kentucky Derbys…horse cost a fortune and has thrown a 103 and 102 Beyer. No way was that race the other day a 102, there hasn’t been a 1:48 2/5 race around here for years.
Small sized fields are trumped by the Winter weather, or lack of—horses just don’t have training breaks, Taiba and Messier came away from them noticeably, and came home fast, which didn’t help my handicapping efforts, having just seen Zandon pass them all in the last half mile….from here on out it comes down to keeping them health and happy!
While preying for a good post position. 1 is the nightmare.
Praying. Autocorrect is so helpful. Lol.
Don’t forget the outside posts, 17 and 19 especially. I think the record still stands that no horse has won from 17 and 19 has had one winner, Country House. Personal opinion, taking out the auxiliary gate helped but there is still that mad dash with bumping and banging and potential for clipping heels to get over. CHD track in my opinion is just too narrow for a 20 horse field.
Lynda, with the new Australian made 20 stall gate, with no ‘problematical’ gap, post 1 is more like post 3 while the outside posts are in about 20 feet than they used to be.
The good – bad posts have changed now and need refiguring. No 1. Post is still poison challis.
Impressive to say the least for Taiba….going four wide around the clubhouse turn and two to three wide entering the stretch all the while under a hand ride from Mike Smith after blowing by Messier.
John Goggin- the fact he was wide on turns, I’m interested in the TG figure for him along with Messier.
He got a 103, then a 102 Beyer and I think it should be closer to 110, because ever since they added tons of sand to the track (there are giant piles in the back lot) there hasn’t been anything close to a 1:48 2/5, for some reason the two turn races come back slow….older horse Riyal Ship ran 1:36 flat, Sunday but he’s a top level older horse who ran twice vs Dubal World Cup winner Country Grammar, and was right there—methinks Taiba bounces, but if he does not he wins.
Yes but after only 2 starts?
Steve, well written blog detailing pretty much everything you can about these horses.
I am not sure who you will play in the Derby as there are so many intangibles. Sometimes I think that owners & trainers want to win these large purse prep races as they may not believe their horse can win the Derby. These races seem to get minimized every year as the Triple Crown races appear to offer more breeding potentials. Obviously Zandon, Epicenter & Mo Donegal have separated themselves a little from the others. Taiba is interesting! He looks like a monster but having only 2 races & then trying win the Derby against 19 other horses will be daunting. Running in a 6 horse Santa Anita Derby field is a far cry from Kentucky. Baffert always seems to know what he is doing so its hard to discount Taiba.
For me, I am going mess around with the exotics & include Epicenter, Zandon, Zozos & White Abarrio.
Throw a win bet on Cyberknife & Charge It.
I will wait & see what your final synopsis is before I get too far ahead of myself. You are usually spot on.
Your writing as always is masterful & detailed…… Bravo
Thank you Deacon, I always look for longshots or overlays to bet straight win, but this year I dont see any I like that much; maybe Simplification. So it looks like an exotics Derby.
I kind of thought you liked Zozos a little as a longshot.
I think he may be sitting on a big performance.
I am putting him in the exotics plus a win bet.
It’s horse racing, everyone is a potential winner until the race is run.
I only look at final preps when handicapping the derby. Here’s my rankings and comments for who I consider to be win contenders.
#1 – Epicenter – Close up through solid early pace, fast late, strong gallop out.
#2 – Messier – Fast early, solid prep, X-factor.
#3 – Mo Donegal – Very strong late in solid race.
Steve, I knew you’d come through with your Week 13 Rankings. Outstanding job! It looks like you think 8 horses have a decent shot at winning the Derby. That is DEEP. I’ve only just had a chance to watch the three Saturday races. A quick examination of my tried and true Derby Winner’s Profile has 8 horses in the upper echelon. Usually it’s 5 or 6 horses. Moreover, it looks like Zandon and Mo Donegal may have no X marks in the weighted 17 factors. Very close behind are Epicenter, Smile Happy, Early Voting, Cyberknife, Messier, and possibly White Abarrio. That’s the same as your 8, except for Early Voting replacing your Taiba ranking. No surprise that Taiba doesn’t fit the profile of a Derby winner. 🙂
I’ll wait to finalize the results after the Brisnet figures for Saturday are released tomorrow. Zandon has been in my top 3 or 4 ever since you pointed him out way back when. The three straight 9f races didn’t seem to hurt him on Saturday. That was my only concern with Zandon.
One factor that is unique this year is the number of top contenders that lost position in the stretch of the last prep: Smile Happy, Early Voting, Simplification, and Messier. Since Silver Charm in 1997, the only Derby winner (for statistical purposes, MaxSec and Medina are considered as winners) to have lost position in the stretch of his final prep was Mine That Bird. It makes sense to me that a horse getting passed in the stretch at 9f may not be at his best at 10f.
Thank you Eddie. I agree it looks like a Top 8 Derby. I’m really torn with Taiba. I hate the two starts, but the game has changed so much I dont know what to think anymore. Anyone but Baffert and I throw him out. My main question with Early Voting is if hes going to run in the Derby or Preakness. If he goes in the Derby he would move up even with the 3 starts.
Steve, thanks for the great analysis. It’s a privilege to get your insight. I’d be interested to see your thoughts on the pedigree of Taiba.
Thanks Liam that will be in next weeks rankings
Like I’ve been saying for months Zandon….
I also been saying Forbidden Kingdom money in the futures was a waste him going off 5-1 & 9-1 was crazy. Dosage God’s say you can’t be a 9.00 dosage index and wear the roses in May… Mo Donegal ran well too I like these two most going forward.
Me too.
Steve, great analysis as usual.
However, your number one ranked horse had a dream trip in the Bluegrass Stakes saving ground the entire race and passing SH who did all the heavy lifting going wide the entire race. Also, based on pedigree, Zandon’s optimum distance is 9.5f
This horse will have to navigate 19 others and hope for some great racing luck to have a chance in the KD. As for Morello, you dropped him like a hot potato based on one lousy race where he hit the gate at the start and lost all chance. He is much better suited for CD… just needs to secure a decent post position.
Thanks, So it sounds like your saying Zandon shouldnt be No. 1 because he had a dream trip and Smile Happy should be No. 1. Lots of Derby winners had dream trips the race before. Also, I dont know what based on pedigree means. Is that fact or opinion? As for 19 horses he did get shuffled back a few times and had to weave his way through an 11 horse field. I would think that will help him. If you want to see a dream trip watch Mo Donegal in the Wood.
I dropped Morello on the assumption he wont run in the Derby off that race. If this race was in Feb or even March I would give him another chance. Do you believe he can win the Derby off that race having never run 2 turns before?
You can ranked them as you wish. It’s your article and opinion. Based on Zandon’s pedigree, his optimum distance is 9.5f. However, we’ve seen horses outrun their pedigrees.
Morello’s connections haven’t decided yet if he will run in the KD. He’s equipped with perfect configurations both top and bottom to be a major threat in the KD. Just looking for a clean trip. His sire, Classic Empire, suffered a horrible trip ridden by Julien Leparoux and the best on the field that day had to settle for 4th place.
Rank….
The single trainer angle Trifecta box, Epicenter, White Abarrio, Simplification and Barber Road each trainers only horse in the derby, most other non-foreign horses have multiple entries (Pletcher, Cox, Yakteen, Mcpeek, Brown)
I love these type of out of the box bets. Nice job.
Once again you have come through for me with an early futures bet. I jumped on Zandon early off of your work. I had Fusiachi Pegasus and California Chrome at 50 to 1 because of you. Hope you got it right again. Thanks for your good work Steve.
Thank you very much, Boy you go way back. Fusaichi may still be the only horse Ive ranked No. 1 without having run in a stakes, Good luck with Zandon. at least youll have some over the next 4 weeks
I remember FuPeg too from way back when; had the exacta to Aptitude….Steve, you have been giving futures winners out for a long time! Please keep them coming! My live futures are down to Smile Happy and Tiz the Bomb. I have a lot of hedging to do for the Derby!
Steve, only disagreement with this week’s ranking is Smile Happy at 3 and Mo Donegal at 6. Think they should be reversed based on this past weekend’s races.
For here on out I am in wait and see mode. Results of the Lexington could knock out a couple of horses currently on the bubble. In case anyone is interested, the official KD website has updated the points standings after the races this weekend and the defections to date and now has only horses listed that have at least ten points, most all of which are running in the Lexington.
Interesting little side note about the Lexington field. Midnight Chrome (sired by California Chrome out of Tipsy at Midnight x Midnight Lute and dam grandsire Real Quiet), is scheduled to race. MC took third in the Remsen and collected two points. If by some miracle he won the Lexington, Chrome’s fans would of course be over the moon. Would take multiple defections for him to make the gate at the Derby with 22 points. But hey, in this day and age anything is possible in horse racing, right?
Wait and see mode as well for how the final entries, travel, train and their workouts followed by the pp draw.
Until I see something to change my mind, Zandon, Epicenter, White Abarrio and Tiz The Bomb are my top horses.
Jockey strategy is always important but this year I think it is especially important if Tabia with Mike Smith up and Messier with Johnny V up are to be defeated. For this task, my money would be on Flavien and Joel.
More than anything however, I am hoping for a clean race, a safe one and for Heaven’s sake no drama or controversy!! Been enough of that the past few years to last a lifetime.
Thanks Steve for all you do!
I had Mo Donegal at 4 but put the two California horses ahead of him at the last minute. I need to see his T-Graph numbers before deciding where to rank him because his past numbers are less than mediocre.By far the slowest of all the contenders. His 96 Beyer is not reflective of a 1:47 4/5 so i want to see if that time was legit. With Morello eliminated and him having a perfect ground saving trip everything worked out perfectly for him. I will know more next week when I can put the pieces together.
Tks Steve. Lots of pieces to pull together and I know that you will make sense out of all of this in the next couple of weeks.
My intuition tells me that either Messier or Tabia will win the Derby. Guess I should have worded my comments to say that the 2 horses I think have the best chance to win over Tabia and Messier are Epicenter’s and Zandon’s chances to do that very thing. At the very least I think these two will be in the money.
White Abarrio is my underdog choice (I always have an underdog). Love the back story on both the horse and his trainer Saffie. He is living the dream, to get a horse into the Derby and he is most humble and most grateful for that opportunity and I feel it is genuine! Tiz The Bomb might just be the sleeper horse as I call them.
The more I look at Crown Pride the more I am thinking in terms of the Belmont as being the race he can win.
I tend to agree with you Lynda about Smile Happy and Mo Donegal but Stee is waiting. I know Smile Happy has been a favorite of Steve but so far he keeps on coming up a bit short.
I hadn’t thought about watching the Lexington until you mentioned Midnight Chrome. I will watch just to see how he does. Like you want to see workouts and the post draws and the jockeys. Mike Smith and Tabia with a good post draw are going to be a challenge for the rest. That and agree with Steve winning that race would maybe make Churchill squirm a bit. I don’t like bullies.
I am not sure Crown Pride will win the derby but he should make a fine showing. Still has 3 weeks to train and being in the quarantine barn away from the rest of the noise might be a good thing for him.
I am also tired of the soap opera dramas that keep on happening at the Derby.
Thanks Laura. I too think Crown Pride will show up in the Derby. He certainly is a fine looking horse, in beautiful condition and what a hip! I watched a brief video when he was unloaded at CHD and as I mentioned in a comment in Week 12, not a rib in sight and not one bit tucked in the flank.
Do you remember who the jockey was riding Crown Pride in the UAE? Granted wasn’t a 20 horse field but it wasn’t a small one either.
Wowww, Zandon jumps Epicenter. I was not expecting that.
Looking at the possible entries for next Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keenland, I doubt that the race will have anything more than a small ripple effect on The Derby. Maybe a couple of the entrants can secure a spot in the starting gate, but, I doubt that any of them can/will hit the board in The Derby. But, I’ll watch and play Keenland on Saturday before taking the next 2 Saturday’s off to get my Oaks/Derby bankroll together and clear my mind.
I don’t see a lot of filler this year, the “underneaths” are good horses! Churchill is hoping Taiba doesn’t win! Zedon should pay the actor who played Bob in “50 to 1” to come with him! I will certainly form one trifecta key with Taiba on top, but if he does not win I think he’ll run out—
Lol. I love that idea.
Steve Haskin’s Week#13 Derby Rankings has to be the greatest analysis ever written a month before The Derby. I really enjoyed that read. I’ll be going over it a few more times. I admire the work that Steve puts in each and every week. I also have to point out a couple of comments in the posts. The Local Seth calls Taiba “the freakiest freak that ever freaked”. A classic comment. Scott S points out that without a “heavy chalky favorite”, The Derby will be a great betting race. That’s for sure. Chalk players should be able to get a fair price on whoever ends up the favorite at Churchill.
Thank you very much.
I remember a time when Arazi was the “Freakiest Freak That Ever Freaked.”
Be careful what one race does to your thinking.
Here’s my stand: I think Mo Donegal is no. 1 and Zandon no. 2. They will have a field day passing tiring on the pace horses who can’t get the distance. I was hoping to see some sheets numbers for Mo D. I think he showed strong acceleration in the last furlong, the pace was strong in the stretch, he passed several from at least 3 lengths back. The Derby pace may not be that fast this year, I think Taiba’s best chance is to set it and go all the way if he’s a phenom that so many believe him to be. I don’t see it and think he’ll get caught in the crowd, which is what some think Mo Donegal and/or Zandon will but I disagree that closers are up against it this year, they are the best two and clear 10 f. horses.
Steve or anyone else know how I/we can access Thoro-Graph numbers?? Is there an App or website to subscribe to??
26 more days, can’t wait!!!
Thanks!!
Yes buy it
Hi Steve
I always look forward to Mondays, and the posting of your latest Derby Rankings. My top 8 (posted on 4-10) are the same as yours, the sequence is the only difference. I remain true blue to Simplification, my #1 Derby contender. Your analysis on this colt provided additional info regarding his Prime Power number of 146.7. Your last sentence, (“this horse’s best race can win the Kentucky Derby”), is all I needed to read.
BTW, just out of curiosity, do you plan on narrowing down your contenders to the “Derby Dozen”, in furture postings?
Thank you for providing your Derby Ranksings, week after week. Your analysis on the top contenders is much appreciated.
It depends on whether I feel the bottom tier horses are worth ranking. as of now i am more inclined to keep it to a dozen. Simplification is still my longshot play.
My top long shots underneath to fill out exotics
Simplification, his FOY race he made more than one move which is important in a derby race. Horse had no need to be cranked up in the FL derby for a trainer making his second trip he may of learned a thing or two.
Tiz A Bomb, one bad race on the dirt. One good race on the dirt. Brisnet LP figure over a 100. Definitely knows how to win.
Crown Pride, Japanese may have things figured out. Breed to run all day.
As always great stuff Steve. I may change my mind In the weeks ahead.
GL
Thanks for the reply Steve.
Zozos checks a lot of boxes that I consider important, he’s my Derby longshot.
Steve: Nothing mentioned about Charge It. I know he could be bumped but if he makes it in what are your thoughts on him. I have a preliminary trifecta going depending on post positions of Taiba, Simplification and Charge it.
Steve: I thought I had finally narrowed down the contenders to just four or five, but your analysis means I now have to reconsider Messier, Smile Happy and White Abbario! Excellent job.
I have Zandon and Epicenter 1-2, followed by Taiba (why not rank the freak No. 3?), Simplification and Mo Donegal, with the real unknown, Crown Pride, in No. 6 so I wouldn’t overlook him. Zandon really impressed me and he’s shown the guts and courage to navigate a crowded Derby field (as has Simplification, less brilliantly).
Thanks, too, for the explanation of why you favor Brisnet figures over Beyers. Speed patterns throughout the race make a lot more sense, although if you pay for Formulator PPs, you get figs for that as well.
A question: what’s Simplification’s Thoro-Graph pattern for this year?
3 3/4..2 1/2….5 1/2… 2 1/2…14…8. He does need more consistency and needs to improve. But he can because no one has been very fast (before Saturday)
He went from a 2 1 / 2 to a 14 and then an 8. That’s a strange progression! Maybe he’s peaked?
Taiba is the freakiest freak that ever freaked.
Seriously though to go from a 6 furlong maiden to win the Santa Anita Derby next race is kind of remarkable.
I see no reason he can’t win the Kentucky Derby.
Baff…Yakteen will have him ready
Thank you Steve. Another in depth analysis for the upcoming derby. I will be rooting for Zandon. But more than anything else, I hope for a clean race, if thats possible with 20 potential entries. Like you said, if Taiba wins, so much for handicapping. I also like Messier and feel that he really needed the race. I look for him to improve.
Real happy that we will not have a heavy chalky favorite this year. It should be a great betting race. And looking through your top ten horses listed above, pretty much anyone of them could absolutely win on the 1st Saturday in my.
Great stuff. Amazing Steve had those two top horses all along. If either of badfert horses win, I would put an asterisk for Bobs 8 KD wins. He’s developed the colts.
Gotta stay loyal to them.
Steve I completely agree with your top 6, but in a slightly different order. I agree that Taiba could be a freak and the old Vet Mike Smith will be in the saddle. Absolutely blown away and am on cloud nine with Zandon’s win in the Bluegrass. Zandon was last after 3/4 of a mile and had to find a seam in the stretch. Great ride by Flavian Prat to find the seam which Zandon exploded through. I was hoping for third when I saw how far Zandon was back, but he exceeded expectations and blew past the talented Smile Happy in the stretch. Thrilled to have bet Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1 to win and boxed him with the field. I’m glad I also boxed Zandon at 18-1 in KDFW5 with Epicenter and Smile Happy. Kudos for CD to close the pool before the big 3 preps to get a chance to lock in on juicy odds. Zandon is very adaptable and surely will get a hot derby pace to close into. Hopefully he will draw well and break well and be no worse than midpack after the first half mile. Zandon is plenty fit and Chad only needs to keep him happy and healthy leading up to the Derby where we could see something special again from him in his run for the roses .
wow good stuff, lots to look over!
Count me as one who thinks Zozos will be put on the lead….Andy was fitted with blinkers and they needed a win, took the race to Straight Up G—I yhink they won’t be going to the front in Louisville, just a hunch…also agree with you about Taiba, who only needs to duplicate that race to won, mo improvement necessary, I am looking for a bounce! I also think he is the best of the crop, and hope this doesn’t ruin him! Zandon on top for me!
I have been on the Slow Down Andy bandwagon since December, when they asked Prat for an excuse, in the Los Al Futurity he said “no excuse, my horse tried”—it made me look at Andy—long frame, fighter….but I, too am biased for Cal breds!
I leaned long ago to never bet on a horse with the name “Slow” in it.
Haha.