2023 Derby Rankings – Week 13
The Top 20 point leaders finally is in place at least for now, so we’re going to do things a bit differently this week. With so many horses about whom we have little to say, we’re going to do a Top 10 followed by several live longshots with good betting angles. And for the brief Knocking on the Door we’ll list the bubble horses who are too good to be left out and appear to be more interesting and talented than those who are in the starting field. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 17, 2023 – Week 13
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
Now that this ship is finally nearing port after eight months of smooth sailing, some people are jumping off and boarding other ships. Yes, you can use his speed figures against him, but after 11 weeks as No. 1, who really looks that much better than him that would make you jump ship now? Who else has won five graded stakes in a row, including four Grade 1’s? Is it possible that he is simply a horse who runs as fast as he has to, and because many of the horses he’s beaten have been slow, that is reflected in his Beyer figures. Rocket Can had never run faster than an 82 Beyer; four of Cyclone Mischief’s five starts had resulted in a 79 Beyer or lower. Mage had only two starts in his life, an 88 and 89 Beyer, finishing almost seven lengths behind Forte, and he surprised everyone with a powerful performance in the Florida Derby that seemed to catch Forte and Ortiz by surprise. But when Forte ran against a fast horse in Cave Rock last fall he got a 100 Beyer. I admit that his stagnant Thoro-Graph numbers since early September and the slight regression in his final prep to a “3 3/4” are concerning and not typical for a Derby favorite, and I understand trying to beat him as a bettor looking for value. But as for rankings, I just can’t drop him after all this time when all he does is win.
2—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
Meet the new fastest horse in the Derby. After steady progression on Thoro-Graph, he jumped from from a “4 1/2” and “4 1/4″ to a “1” in the Blue Grass Stakes, in which he showed he is tractable enough to make an early move to reach contention, shut it down until it was time to make his final move, and then outgame a dangerous opponent who he very well may not have beaten without making that early move, especially with the runner-up getting a “1 1/2” Thoro-Graph number. In my 24 years doing the Derby Dozen and Derby Rankings I have never ranked a horse as high as No. 7 in Week 2 off a neck maiden victory. I actually had him at No. 5, but felt that was too bold a move. This was strictly a visual move, as I was taken with his overall presence and look of class, the great extension to his stride and how fluid it was, and the grit he showed beating a very gutsy opponent. Now here we are 10 weeks later and he is again winning by a neck after a stretch-long battle. But this time it elevated him right to the top of many Derby rankings. I admit I was tempted to put him at No. 1, especially when the Thoro-Graph numbers came out, but as I mentioned earlier I just couldn’t bring myself to dethrone Forte after being on top since Week 1.
3—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
There was nothing in the beginning to suggest that this colt would become one of leading Kentucky Derby contenders. Bred in Pennsylvania, and by an unproven freshman sire, he was plucked out of Book 4 of the Keeneland September yearling sale for a mere $70,000 by the Albaugh Family team. They turned him over to Brad Cox, who was starting to have potential Derby horses pouring out of his barn like a broken faucet. So Angel of Empire was sent to Horseshoe Indianapolis Race Course for his debut before being dropped into a 6 1/2-furlong grass race at Kentucky Downs and then returned to Indiana. After more than three months of racing, it became clear that Cox’s rose-colored glasses were looking at other horses and not Angel of Empire. Finally, with 2022 coming to an end, he had no other recourse but to send the colt to Oaklawn Park and join the big boys. With his only two victories in the Hoosier State, he finally opened Cox’s eyes on New Year’s Day when he finished second to one of the trainer’s top 3-year-olds, Victory Formation, in the Smarty Jones Stakes at odds of 18-1. It is 3 1/2 months later, and after victories in the Risen Star Stakes and Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire is now the head honcho in the Cox barn, as many of the others have fallen by the wayside. His speed figures are on the rise, his Thoro-Graph pattern is as strong as anyone’s, and his scintillating :12 1/5 final eighth in the Arkansas Derby, while blowing away the field, give him a near-flawless resume going into the Derby. I doubt anyone will be underestimating him again.
4—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
In my 24 years doing Derby Dozen and Derby Rankings I cannot recall the two consensus Derby favorites both regressing on Thoro-Graph in their respective final preps. That is the time to be moving forward, not backwards. I tried to provide some possible explanation for Forte, but of the three horses battling down the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby, Practical Move wound up with the third fastest Thoro-Graph number. Some, however, will be more interested in the fact that he ran his second consecutive 100 Beyer figure. So is he one of the fastest, maybe the fastest, 3-year-old or is his mediocre “4 1/2” Thoro-Graph number in the Santa Anita Derby and never having run faster than a “3 3/4” a truer gauge as to how he stacks up among the others? Welcome to the perplexing world of the 2023 Kentucky Derby. One of the main things Thoro-Graph takes into account is that Practical Move has had two of the most ideal ground-saving trips any trainer could hope for. If you continue to support this horse I believe you can expect a far better price than you might have a couple of weeks ago, as he has never really gotten the respect a horse of his accomplishments deserves. How else can you explain him closing at a preposterous 83-1 in the Future Wager on February 12? Like Forte he knows how to win, is extremely tactical and professional, and remains a very dangerous foe.
5—Derma Sotogake (Hidetaki Otonashi, Mind Your Biscuits – Neo Universe, by Sunday Silence)
If you want to know why I lowered him a couple of spots don’t bother to ask, because I have no idea. Perhaps it is because he looks too logical and possibly too good for our horses if that makes any sense. It is looking like the confidence level of bettors and fans for this colt, and even for the Japanese horses in general, is going through the roof. Is Derma Sotogake actually being overhyped based on his impressive victory in the UAE Derby, his “1 1/2” Thoro-Graph number, and the results of previous Japanese invasions around the world in the past few years? I am one of those who got wrapped up in his performances in Japan, Saudi Arabia, and especially Dubai, and how his UAE Derby romp was estimated to be faster than the Dubai World Cup. I don’t really know the quality of the competition at Meydan, but all I know that in the final furlong all you saw were three Japanese hoses with huge gaps between them and not another horse in sight. I also know is that there will be three very good American horses who will not get in the Derby because of this influx of Japanese horses, and whether that is good for the Derby is something Churchill Downs and each individual will have to decide. In the meantime we look forward to seeing Derma Sotogake train and how he flourishes at Churchill Downs. His pedigree is made up mainly of American bloodlines and this could be Japan’s big opportunity to rewrite our most sacred history book with the help of one of our most gifted Derby winners.
6—Two Phil’s (Larry Rivelli, Hard Spun — Mia Torri, by General Quarters)
Imagine you have always been an average “B-minus” student who always passes your exams, but can never get an “A.” Then one day you take a brand new course that that you really love and you ace it with an “A-plus.” Was that a one-shot deal for that one course or does that “A-plus” give you renewed confidence that with harder work you can ace all your exams, especially the big finals coming up? That leaves us with two intriguing questions. Are there now two Phils and you have to keep them separated or is he still one Phil who has found a new lease on life by knocking that latest exam out of the park? That is what we are going to find out on the first Saturday in May. If that is the real Two Phil’s who simply needed a jolt to reach the head of the class, then he is just begging you to believe in him and back him with everything you got. Each of us betting the Derby is going to have to decide whether the Jeff Ruby Steaks was an aberration caused by a switch to a synthetic surface or a new star has been born and this will be our only chance to cash in on it. Looking at the facts, this was as impressive a performance as we’ve seen all year with the speed ratings to prove it. And his Thoro-Graph pattern suggests this was no fluke and we’re about to see another “A-plus” performance. It’s up to you to believe it or not. Yes you can wind up with Tapeta on your face or you can be the hero of your block with Derby bragging rights for a year. If Two Phil’s winds up graduating with honors on May 6 don’t say you weren’t warned.
7—Verifying (Brad Cox, Justify – Diva Delite, by Repent)
With him it’s very simple. Will he be allowed to control the pace, either setting it or stalking it? On paper, there isn’t much speed in the Derby unless the undefeated Kingsbarns pulls a repeat of the Louisiana Derby, but this time with his foot a lot heavier on the accelerator. Sure he can try to dawdle along in 1:14 3/5 again, but you can be sure Verifying is not going to let that happen. He has way too high a cruising speed and can use it on or off the lead. His Beyer speed figure jumped from an 85 in his eventful trip in the Rebel Stakes to a 99 in the Blue Grass, and after having paired up a career-best “5 1/2″ Thoro-Graph number in an allowance race and the Rebel, he jumped to a “1 1/2″ in the Blue Grass, in what was surely a winning effort, finishing almost six lengths ahead of the third horse, who just happened to be Blazing Sevens, the horse who beat him by 3 1/2 lengths in the Champagne Stakes. He not only looks to be a horse on the rise, he possesses dangerous speed, which could prove to be the most potent weapon in this year’s Derby.
8—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
If you liked Hit Show before the Wood Memorial, you can be disappointed by the turn of events that resulted in him getting beat at 8-5 or you can stick by him and feel good about getting a much bigger price in the Kentucky Derby. No you don’t want to see a big favorite like that get beat, especially being in a three-horse photo with a 59-1 shot and a maiden with only two starts. But there are a number of reasons why you don’t want to give up on him. Post 12 going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct is a killer; going five-wide into and around the first turn makes a bad situation even worse; getting caught in the middle of a roughly run three-horse stretch battle just keeps adding to an already bad situation. He had to withstand numerous bumps from both sides and just when it looked as if he might squeak out a victory anyway he got whacked pretty good by the winner, almost knocking jockey Manny Franco onto the inside horse Dreamlike. As bad as all this was, you have to add that Hit Show hadn’t started in two months and was shipping back to New York from Kentucky after having shipped there from New Orleans in February. All of that is a lot to ask of a horse who won’t even turn 3 until three days after the Kentucky Derby. I’m not saying he is now about to go back to Kentucky and knock off the entire Derby field, I’m just saying don’t be that surprised if he does.
9—Kingsbarns (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit, by Tapit)
Kingsbarns or Mage? Mage or Kingsbarns? Take your pick. Both are coming into the Derby off only three career starts, 94 and 95 Beyer speed figures, and “3” and “3 3/4″ Thoro-Graph numbers. And neither has shown even the slightest sign of being so inexperienced, having encountered and overcome situations that would have been a challenge for many hardened veterans. In short, both have shown on several occasions they are extraordinary young horses. But what is important is whether they can win in a 20-horse field going 1 1/4 miles. The only horse in history to win the Derby with only three lifetime starts and never having raced at 2 was Justify, who won lapped on the leader the whole way in the slop. That is where Kinbgsbarns might get a slight edge, as he is the only one of the two who has shown he has the speed to wire his field if he is able to slow the race to a crawl. And he did it going 1 3/16 miles. There is no pure speed in the Derby and we know he is at least comfortable being on the lead, even though he is not a true speed horse and his connections would prefer seeing him sit off the pace. As powerful as he looked in the Louisiana Derby, if you want to see the real Kingsbarns watch his career debut. What he did winning that race going a flat mile first time out was very impressive. My feelings about winning the Derby with only three lifetime starts are well documented. It would take a remarkable horse to do it, and we at least know this colt has shown he is pretty remarkable.
10—Mage (Gustavo Delgado, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
Although Kingsbarns has the advantage of being undefeated and a Grade 2 stakes winner he wasn’t running twice against the 2-year-old champion and Kentucky Derby favorite…and nearly beating him. He demonstrated some of the attributes that make him special in his most recent work. Going five furlongs in 1:01 is good, but it’s not going to blow you away. It is how he did it. Right from the start you can see how he gets his head down into the bit and just glides along. His rider then took him well off the rail, indicating they didn’t want him working too fast. After changing leads smoothly, he just coasted down the stretch with his rider never moving his hands. After the wire he again was taken wide galloping out into the turn, but still kept going at a strong clip, with his head still down and into the bit. He is a beautiful horse to watch in action and we saw some of the remarkable things he is capable of in the Florida Derby. This colt’s ceiling is so high now nothing does would be amazing anymore. If he and Kingsbarns had even just one more race under them, preferably a start at 2, we’re not talking about No. 9 and 10 anymore. But a number of the horses ahead of them are seasoned, battle-tested colts with proven class who won’t be as easy to deal with in a 20-horse Derby field. The bottom line is that both he and Kingsbarns are rapidly rising stars and we really have no idea what they are capable of.
LONGSHOTS WITH STRONG ANGLES
I had 11 horses to rank and rather than add one to make it a Derby Dozen, I decided that Skinner, who was originally scheduled to be ranked anywhere from No. 7 to 10, would get more play having his own category, along with two other longshots who would have gotten lost in the Rankings, which are now geared more toward betting and who is going to get in. From this point on the Derby will be affected only by what happens off the racetrack. So here are three longshots with current odds from BetOnline who have enough angles to be at least considered interesting trifecta and superfecta possibilities.
BLAZING SEVENS (50-1)
Right now he is my longshot special and a potential monster overlay. This is going to be a totally forgotten horse who just may be sitting on a big effort. It’s easy to look at the Blue Grass and say he was beaten six lengths by Tapit Trice, who pulled away from him in the stretch. But there is so much more to this horse. First off, he showed in the Blue Grass that his Fountain of Youth was a complete throw out race, and that the Blue Grass was in many ways his first start in five months. He closed in the Future Wager at 46-1, which is a big price for a horse who already is a Grade 1 winner, having easily defeated a horse who was beaten a neck the Blue Grass and is one of the true live contenders in the Derby. Blazing Sevens’ career best Beyer was a 93 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That is one point less than Angel of Empire’s career best; one point less than Mage’s career best; two points less than Forte’s most recent race; and two points less than Kingsbarns’ career best in the Louisiana Derby. On Thoro-Graph, he went from his aberrant “15 1/2″ in the Fountain of Youth to a “3” in the Blue Grass, and he should actually take another step forward considering he already has a “3” to fall back on in his Champagne victory. One of my longtime betting angles is second race blinkers on, which will apply in the Derby. In the Blue Grass he was four-to-five wide the whole way, and after running his third quarter in a quick :23 4/5 trying to keep up with Tapit Trice’s early move, he made another big move leaving the half-mile pole, flying by horses on the turn to pull right up to Tapit Trice’s flank at the top of the stretch and looked like a legitimate danger to the favorite. Although he could not sustain his run, which wasn’t surprising considering his lack of racing all year, he still dug in and held off two closers for third. Whatever price he goes off at in the Derby, they will be too high considering his back class in Grade 1 company and getting back on an upward trend right before the Derby.
SKINNER (33-1)
I am including him even though he is currently on the outside looking in. But at No. 22 I am thinking optimistically. No matter what the number is I am taking the ‘over’ on how many times Skinner is compared to Giacomo. And one of those times is right now. Giacomo went into the Kentucky Derby with one victory in seven starts, compared to Skinner’s one victory in six starts. In Giacomo’s final prep, the Santa Anita Derby, he rallied and then hung in the final eighth, finishing fourth, beaten 2 1/4 lengths. In Skinner’s final prep, the Santa Anita Derby, he rallied and then hung in the final eighth, finishing third, beaten three-quarters of a length. A horse is more likely to hang in a smaller field than in a 20-horse cavalry charge, where he doesn’t have time to think about hanging. Just watch the difference in Giacomo when he was too busy negotiating traffic looking for an opening. Skinner has strong credentials to fall back on, such as having the fastest Thoro-Graph number of the first three Santa Anita Derby finishers, despite finishing third. He was wide the whole way and probably made his move a bit too soon, making it harder to sustain. After pairing up a career-best “4 1/2” and “4 1/4,” Skinner improved to “2 1/4” in the Santa Anita Derby, putting himself in position for another forward move at Churchill Downs. Shirreffs said Skinner and Giacomo are very similar in that both are “level-headed and don’t worry about things.” He added, “They take everything in stride, and on the track they have the ability to cover the ground effortlessly.” Also, both have had bad trips and have been involved in bumping incidents. Shireffs concluded by saying that Skinner “just needs to reach a little deeper like Giacomo.” If anyone can get him to reach that deep it is Shirreffs.
REINCARNATE (40-1)
I was disappointed in his Arkansas Derby performance, mainly because he had no closing kick after a perfect stalking trip. And right now I have very little confidence he can win the Derby or even be a serious factor. So what is he doing here? He does have two interesting angles and if he can pull one of them off there is a possibility we could see a different story on Derby Day. It seems fairly obvious by now that Reincarnate does not like to pass horses in deep stretch. At least that’s what he’s been showing us. Three times he’s been a length or two back in the stretch and all three times he couldn’t or wouldn’t pass the horse in front. Three times he worked in company with National Treasure and each time Reincarnate, who took back, failed to get his head in front of him. I have found that often with hangers they don’t want to pass horses, but if they are in front they don’t want horses passing them. In Reincarnate’s maiden victory and his Sham Stakes victory he was sent to the front and battled back in the stretch refusing to be passed. We have established there is little speed in the Derby. Kingsbarns has only been on the lead when no one wanted it and he was allowed to crawl out there by himself. He is not a natural frontrunner. And then there is Verifying, who has never been on the lead and is more comfortable sitting just off it. And that’s it. So why not just send Reincarnate, let him settle into that big stride of his and see what he can do when he’s challenged in the stretch? What is there to lose? The only other way he can win is break slowly, drop far back in the pack, and then come flying late as he did in the Rebel Stakes. By the time he gets to the leaders he will have passed so many horses and will be on such a roll, hanging will be the last thing on his mind. So put him on the lead or take him way back. That’s your only two choices.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
No one is knocking harder than those sitting just outside the Top 20, and that even includes the aforementioned SKINNER, as well as other legitimate Derby contenders JACE’S ROAD, CYCLONE MISCHIEF, MANDARIN HERO, and KING RUSSELL, the last three having placed in Grade 1 stakes and Jace’s Road having placed in a Grade 2. At least a couple of these horses should get in, but there is no certainty. And if they don’t this could be a wake-up call to our trainers that if you can’t get in with 40 points because of the foreign road to the Derby, the UAE Derby, and the Japanese now willing to come here in advance, then perhaps our horses are going to have to be raced a bit more aggressively to accumulate as many points as possible. Having only two starts could get kind of dicey.
The one horse who leapfrogged all these horses this past weekend was one of our favorites all year, DISARM, who did so with a fairly lackluster third in the Lexington Stakes. Even if they were just trying for a place or a show without knocking the colt out, he had little or no punch when he was asked for his run. He was, however, dropping back to 1 1/16 miles from 1 3/16 miles and was dealing with a short stretch, so I can neither knock his race nor say anything good about it because I don’t know what was behind it and it did get him in the Derby. Once you race at 1 3/16 miles you’re not supposed to race again before the Derby. So to Asmussen’s credit he had to run him and have him competitive enough to at least finish third while handling the whole situation with kid gloves. A wrong move in one direction and you don’t get in the Derby and a wrong move in the other direction and you take too much out of your horse. So in that sense he nailed it.
Once again, the elusive CONFIDENCE GAME was a teaser for a big race and once again didn’t show up. He obviously is telling Keith Desormeaux he’s good enough to turn in solid works, but he’s not ready mentally for the stress of competition. He has been called hot-headed by his trainer, which does not explain much and does not bode well for the Derby. What makes this all the more strange is that his hot-headed nature did not prevent him from running in July, August, September, October, November, January, and February. So whatever has been bugging him since the Rebel Stakes, he supposedly is going into the Derby off a 10-week layoff and dealing with mental issues. Good luck with that. He is a very nice horse and very talented and whatever his problem is we wish him the very best.
If there is one horse who came close to making the longshot list it is another Rankings staple RAISE CAIN. But he requires a longer look, as his Blue Grass was not all that bad. I just can’t decide yet how I feel about his chances.
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This is the first year for the futures for the Preakness. They are available through this weekend.
I think this is the only way to get decent odds on some of the top horses.
Terri Z (my spell check kept changing your name to “Terrific”) I played “all others”, at 17-1, and Blazing Sevens, at 20-1—because most Derby runners skip the Preakness, so they are a bad risk…..
I like Hit Show. What do you all make of his being so “rank” and “unruly” in the training AM sessions at CD?
Mr. Haskin:
Apologies for being completely off topic, but an old friend was just telling me about the old Widener Chute
at Belmont which I know preceded your interest to the sport. Just wondering if you ever wrote about it.
Thank you for everything you do…
Yes that was before my time. I havent written about it but it must have been something to see.
Skinner and Mage remain my longshots, but if you like others I can’t argue against— this is one of those years! Closest I can recall is 2012, when there were several contenders, and I got lucky on that year’s SA Derby winner, and that one was a hard fought nose win! Practical Move is a good horse, he maybe wasn’t 100% because he was stiff in front, walking to get his picture taken—I noticed that— he’s a good horse, he keeps going— Forte is a must include! Could very well be east/west one/two this year! Could very well be a budding rivalry—because Forte just wins, and the SA preps were the best. …
Mathew W: I read yesterday that John Sherriffs won’t be traveling to Kentucky with Skinner. He won’t be running in the Derby.
Mathew W: Please excuse my mistake. Skinner is still in training for the Derby. Sherriffs will wait to ship him until he receives confirmation he is in.
Some notable workouts the last week or so
….
Forte….4/21 1:02 (29/33) & 4/14 50.23 (16/25)-have we come to expect anything different from this winning machine?
Practical Move…4/21 47:00 (2/31)
Reincarnate….4/22 1:01 (22/42)
Tapid Trice…4/21 48.60 (11/68)
Angel of Empire….4/21 1:13.2 (1/2)
Kingsbarns…..4/20 1:40 (11/20) & 4/14 49.48 (10/25)
Lord Miles….4/21 47 (2/33)
Hit Show…..4/21 1:01 (18/31)
Thoughts….first defection today….if I remember correctly in the last couple of decades it seem that they were a horse or two and maybe others that defected within the last five days prior to the KD because of a rising temperature of a horse of some kind of virus….
Red Route One got a career top Beyer of 92 winning the Bath House S. at Oaklawn yesterday. It was his first stakes win. Tapit Shoes and Victory Formation got 91s. I’ve already started a “Preakness Watch” list and so far there are NINE potential starters BEFORE considering any of the Derby entries. There may be a mass clamoring to get into the gate at Pimlico.
Could be a very exciting Preakness this year. So many possibilities!
Blazing Sevens bypassing Derby, Jace’s Road now in.
The first shoe has dropped. I have a feeling there will be others. Would much have preferred Skinner to get in than Jace’s Road, who doesn’t seem fast enough to be competitive against this bunch. He is a perfectly nice horse, though.
Yeah I’d like to see Skinner get in as well, so now that he’s first in line maybe Sherriffs will change his tune about making flight arrangements??!!
Hope he does (change his mind).
Drove in to Los Alamitos….I like to make my wagers at the track, when I bet online I always end up playing races I did not like—like Robert Mitchum said in “Out of the Past”—- when he was asked if he could help a person win —“No, but I can help you lose, slower…”….driving out to make my wagers at the track enables me to lose SLOWER! So I’m nearly there….and I spy a beautiful restored green 1940’s car, perhaps a De Soto…..going very slowly, in the right lane, and as I look at the (beautiful) automobile, who’s driving but Jay Leno!..
Jay has a barn full of horse power, as I’m sure you know, Matthew!
Your story reminded of a time way,way back in the very early seventies when I was playing the Friday night races at the now gone Bay Meadows track in San Mateo, Ca. I walk out onto the tarmac to watch the next race and there is Robert Mitchum standing there, all alone, watching the races. My friend and I were just too star struck to think of what to say, so we just said ‘Hi’ and he smiled and said ‘Hello’ back, and that was that. He just had this really great coolness about him.
We were at Los Al on early 1974…my father, mother and little sis, who asked Mitchum for his autograph as he came out of the paddock— and he blurted “as soon as my horse wins”…..and his horse came 3rd, in a stakes race—Don Guerro, who won the second running of the Champion of Champions race—and sis didn’t get the autograph! What a deep voice!..
Steve, just wanted to say that all the colts that worked at CHD this past week looked really good to me.
They seem to have settled in well and are taking to the track, which I like to see.
Beautiful Sunday here, hope the same your way.
Cyclone Mischief and Rocket Can worked this a.m. at CHD. Both went 5f, 1:01.
Rocket Can started 6 lengths back of of work mate, passed him and finished strong.
Cyclone Mischief can really stretch out, long strides.
Really starting to like Rocket Can.
Grand dam by Tiznow.
No inbreeding through first 5 generations.
Correction: Rocket Can, 114:56.
Error I guess on first Twitter post video this morning.
On top of his best ever work, 7AM this morning….6 fur started slow, came home in :11 1/5, out in 1:13 4/5…..Shirreffs made the surprising statement that he made no travel plans,,and Churchill has no more openings—he cited the time he brought a horse to Churchill at #21 and were left out, he doesn’t want that again….so they’re not going….
Can’t say as I blame him, but still disappointing. Had Skinner on my list of probables to win.
Update! On the 9am Willman show Shirreffs amended his statement to “leaving it up to owner Lee Searing, John is somewhat bitter, about waiting then getting shut out, with Royal Mo…..he also said his barn is loaded with 2yo talent!…
That’s hopeful.
Read article this morning, Wild on Ice is being trained up for Derby. So he is in I guess.
Thoroughbred LA, hosted by Mike Willman, is a two hour Sunday show from 8-10 LA time….first hour had a SA official saying he was surprised Shirreffs had made no traveling plans, second hour John came on and related his bitterness about getting shut out several years ago….but even though he has made no travel plans, he will leave the decision to ship up to the owner, thinking he could get onto the Yakteen plane …..the SA guy said that was no longer an option…if they do go and get shut out they will stay for Pimlico… same can be said for Mandarin Hero..
The first Classic on the English flat this year, which will be run May 6 the same day as the Kentucky Derby, was thrown into a bit of disarray when one of the favorites for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, Chaldean, dumped Frankie Dettori on the turf in a prep race at Newbury on Saturday. The unexpected outcome may have muddied the picture as far as the Newmarket Classic is concerned but makes the race even more exciting for the punters. Stay tuned!!
Red Route One (Gun Runner) wins Bath House Row Win and You Are In for Steve A and Winchell Thoroughbreds.
Congratulations!
In what….the bath tub?…:-D..
Kid you not, that is the name of the race. It is a Preakness prep.
Would love to know the backstory on that name, LOL
The new name of the event – The Bathhouse Row is in recognition of the historic bath house along Central Avenue in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
The Bathhouse Row you see today consists of eight bathhouse buildings that were constructed between the years of 1892 and 1923. This area along with the Grand Promenade was designated as a National Historic Landmark District in 1987.
Choose one of the bathhouse names below to read more about that structure. The buildings are listed from south to north along the Row.
Superior, Hale, Maurice, Fordyce, Quapaw, Ozark, Buckstaff, Lamar.
Look up Bathhouse Row in Hot Springs National Park Arkansas
Proxy wins the Oaklawn Handicap!! Messy race with no changes which is somewhat surprising.
I thought Charge it causee his own problems. Yes, Stilletto drifted out a bit but Charge came over way more than Stilletto came out. Good no call in my opinion.
Steve, thanks again for hosting the finest site on the Kentucky Derby. This is a tough year, as there are so many who are coming into this race off of very impressive efforts, except for the two you noted who most definitely cannot be ignored. This analysis of the situation is one of your best efforts I have ever had the pleasure to read. The comments about A of E for example, following his lack luster path in a barn stacked with early favorites is the type of writing nobody else would ever think of penning. Then there’s the B- kid getting an A. If you can’t laugh at that you’re hopeless. If you can’t root for this horse then you have no heart. But my favorite remark regarding your lowering of Derma, “Perhaps it is because he looks too logical and possibly too good,” that struck me. Steve, you don’t have to be fan of Elizabeth Kubler-Ross to see that this is the first stage of grief known as denial. Grieve not my friend for Roses in Japan will be one of your best post race writing assignments ever, and I can’t wait to read it. As usual, it has been a real bright spot in my week to join you on this journey. The analysis and writing are always top notch, interesting and just plain old good fun. And your followers are good people to spend time with here. Good luck with your wagers Steve, I hope you get a fat ticket this year. The odds should be pretty spread out and there are plenty of overlooked horses who could add plenty of mustard, relish and onion to your victory hot dog. Cheers my good man and enjoy the rest of this Derby season.
Thank you so much for your kind and eloquent words. I really appreciate it. Good luck in the Derby
El Kabong, I hope everything is well with you. Mentioning “On Death and Dying” by Dr. Elisabeth Kübler-Ross “And The Five Stages of Grief” is quite unusual when discussing the Kentucky Derby.
Unusual? No! It was absurd. Totally blown out of proportion for one reason. “Roses in Japan.” Have you ever seen the original version of The Producers? Enough said. It was vintage Zero Mostel. That’s it. I’m fine but thanks for the concern.
Yes, “The Producers” with Zero Mostel and Gene Wilder is one of the best satirical black comedy films ever. Laugh forever. Glad you’re fine though.
If you are interested in the Japanese race horses, I highly recommend a website I stumbled upon a couple of days ago: Netkeiba dot com
Easy to navigate, detailed information, lots of photos, siblings
Thing I like best is the pedigree page, percentage inbred in addition to the usual generation inbred.
Example: Native Dancer (4SX4D) 15%
I had read that starting in 2013 that Japan had partnered with a large equine genetics testing lab in Ireland.
This was not long after the discovery of the so called “speed gene” (which is actually is gene to determine the optimal distance the horse can race).
When a foal is registered, DNA samples are required to not only confirm the foals parentage but also identify genetic markers such the speed gene. Genetic testing also gives more accurate information on inbreeding.
Thoroughbreds are more deeply inbred that the pedigrees indicate.
Nice work Lynda! You are a bona fide super sleuth for landing on this gem.
Thank you El Kabong
Lynda King: Thanks for the information about the website and Japanese breeding.
You are welcome Terri.
I’ve made the case for a few horses, but I like this one best. And it’s my last, my final answer…
I want a horse who is going to peak on derby day. Who fits that bill better than Hit Show? And oh my, is he going to be a massive overlay.
1. Steve (Week 9) – What will help him in the Derby is that he has always been very laid back and just a smart, straight-forward colt.
2. Steve (Week 10) – What I love from a speed figure standpoint is that he made a huge leap on Thoro-Graph from a 12 1/4 to 4 3/4 two races back, but instead of “bouncing” he took another big move forward with a 2 in the Withers (a very strong race…over a deep and tiring track).
3. Steve (Week 12) – I think this race (Wood) did him a world of good and will bring him into the Derby tougher and more battle-tested than he’s ever been. Hit Show’s pedigree says he will handle the mile and a quarter with no problem and I believe he is ready to make a big forward move.
4. Brad Cox (April 20) – I love how he came out of the Wood, he’s moving really, really well.
5. Me (DD) – His gallops at Churchill are eye popping. He looks so powerful, covering so much ground with each stride.
I’m drooling at the thought of 25-30/1 on Hit Show. Good luck everyone!
DD, do you have a spare towel? I’m drooling, as well, over the delicious prospect of getting juicy odds on Hit Show. This horse is a player that will make his presence known. I especially like the way he fought on in the Wood despite the bumps received on both sides.
This bodes well for the usual bumping we can expect in the Derby.
Hit Show is a must use in all exotics and a win ticket, to boot. Cha ching!
And he was coming off a 2 month layoff and did a ton of traveling.
Yes and yes, Dewey and Steve. It’s been a group effort for me handicapping this horse. So if he comes through, it will certainly be a (more enjoyable) group celebration. 🙂
Hey Demolition Derby
You make excellent points regarding Hit Show, welcome aboard the Hit Show bandwagon. His sire Candy Ride, and his broodmare sire, Tapit, need no introduction, however, his dam, Actress and 2nd dam, Milwaukee Appeal were Grade 1 routers which should provide Hit Show with a ton of stamina influence.
I like the fact that he’s a Gary and Mary West homebred, and he could carry the large-heart gene which adds to his appeal, IMO.
I’ve got a $100.00 win bet on Hit Show in Pool 3 at 77-1, and keyed him on top with all in my exacta wager in Pool 3. In Pools 4 and 5 I’ve got more bets on Hit Show too numerous to mention.
Bottom line, Hit Show has been my top Derby horse since January. 🙂
Good luck Demolition Derby
Bill yes!! I actually thought of you when I was writing that post, as I remembered you saying you had Hit Show in the future wagers. That’s master bet at 77-1. Let’s make some noise in this derby!
Right On, Demolition Derby!
Something to think about. Well done with the comments. It’s so easy to overlook a horse at this stage. Good luck with your plays on Derby Day.
Thanks El Kabong, good luck to you as well!
I believe that Tapit Trice is vulnerable because he is such a bicycle horse, in a 20 horse field will his jockey be able to get him a trip? Forte is a probable but I’m rooting for Angel of Empire, Practical Move and I have to throw in Derma Sotogate 🙂
A “bicycle horse”? What dat?
A horse that takes constant “peddling” by the rider. Now doing this at 1 1/4. Not my type. Give me one with possibly less talent, but is willingly giving effort to win. Not one that wins in spite of him/her self. Think Tacitus. No thanks
Thanks, SJ, now that I think about it, I realize that Luis Saez has to keep busy urging Tapit Trice to stay in the hunt. Hmm!
I don’t think Luis will mind peddling for 2 minutes for a little over a quarter of a million bucks do you? (360,000 I believe). It’s a good point but these jocks are some of the fittest athletes in the world and that check and bragging rights is like crack to a deadbeat junky.
El Kabong, “bragging rights is like crack to a deadbeat junky”…. I love it, LOL. You’re right, Luis is one of the fittest jocks in the room and will have no problem “bicycling” Tapit Trice to keep his motor humming in his quest for the roses. BTW, the winner’s cut is 60% of the $3,000,000 purse ($1,800,000) of which the jockey gets 10% ($180,000). Not bad for 2 minutes work.
10% is the standard rate. If Saez isn’t getting 15-20 % he needs to fire the bum and talk to me!
LK, I was referring to the horse, not the rider. I am quite familiar with the athletic abilities of jocks. The $$$ is quite inspirational to all involved, but tell it to the horse.
Right, the horse is the bicycle and the jock needs to be peddling. I was referring to the Jock not minding the fact that he needs to be peddling his horse to go around the track for only 2 minutes. Now if we’re talking about an electric bicycle horse then yes, I am confused because who needs to peddle in THAT scenario?
I firmly believe if a Japanese horse is ever going to win the derby, this is the year for it.
None of the U.S. horses feel like they’re coming into this race at the top of their game.
While Derma just ran a very solid UAE.
Fractions of 24.5 > 23.20 > 24.60 > 12.40 next furlong / 18.30 to the finish line.
Hand ride until 0.139 miles left, 3 quick whips, hand ride last 0.127 miles.
No wire-to-wire threat from the U.S. this year.
I don’t foresee an opportunity much better than this one for the Japanese.
Think he should be ranked #2 behind Forte.
Expecting him to get pounded in the betting, maybe 6-8/1. Anything more than that is an overlay imo.
Well said and the crazy thing is, while he can go to the front, he doesn’t have too to win. He’s very versatile and can stalk just as well. But, it is the Derby and good fortune must ride with you no matter how talented you are. Too many good examples of the best horse getting beat on Derby Day to feel to confident. I pointed out to my brother on watching the UAE Derby was for him to take note that at the top of the lane Derma separates with out any urging at all. No shake of the reigns, no whip, he just knows it’s time to through down. He’s as smart as he is versatile. Good luck with your Derby wagers this one might pay out well if a sleeper should join Derma for second place.
I can understand people trying to beat Forte, I’m trying to beat Forte, but I respect the horse! He reminds me of Nyquist, who kept winning at all the tracks they took him to….Forte wons races‐-if he gets beat I cannot envision it will be by very much..
I remember trying for weeks trying to find the horse to beat Nyquist. He seemed to be limited and not very exciting. In the end, i totally changed my mind and decided he was just the best horse,. This time feels different. Though the Florida 3yos seem weak, Forte’s FOY was extremely impressivee. The Florida Derby, not so much, with Forte getting outmoved on the turn. Tapit Trice keeps winning in visually impressive ways, and seems to have huge potential, but he may not overcome his quirks here. The Japanese horses are a mystery, so i’ll hope they don’t beat me. Which leaves me solidly with Angel of Empire. His Arkansas Derby is the only performance this spring to surprise me with its dominance.
I’m thinking the same way, but with a twist. If the big 4 – Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Practical Move – all have descent trips I believe Tapit Trice will win. However, if they all have average troubled trips Angel of Empire will win. Forte and Practical Move seem better suited to 9f or less but neither will be stopping just not as effective at 10f than at a shorter distance. Whatever, luck will be the real decider so everyone is simply guessing which is as it should be – fun.
Mage, Skinner, and Verifying appear to be real dangers to the above four. The Japanese horses would have more appeal to me if they didn’t have to travel as much and were trained in the US. You can’t name them all though. Lol.
American Rascal. WOW!!!
Headed to Royal Ascot.
One of those 24 horse 6 fur straight races! Looks like he has a turf action, with his high front stride—there aren’t going to beat him!..
Has Curlin ever sired a winner on turf?
He does have turf winners aways back in his pedigree.
Not many 3yo high Beyer #’s….Mandarin Hero 100 likely does not get in….Saudi Hero 97 for his debut, Cave Rock has soundness issues, the lack of any breakout horses in the 2023 Derby makes for a terrific wagering proposition! The 2023 Summer Derby, also known as The Travers—could be special..
Hopefully, Signator is back in action by then.
Kingsbarns had a work this morning, 5f in 1:00 4/5, in company with Major Dude. Irad Ortiz was on Major Dude. Someone please tell me that it is okay that Ortiz was out there working alongside Kingsbarns and his exercise rider. Maybe my distrust of Irad is getting in the way of rational thought. I am a fan of Forte as well as Kingsbarns; the latter is loving Churchill Downs.
Irad is Forte’s Jockey.
Todd Pletcher trains both Forte and Major Dude.
That probably explains why Irad was on him today.
Major Dude is probably Irad’s mount for the big turf race on the Derby undercard..
I know that Irad is Forte’s jockey. I apologize for the above post.
Steve, thoughts on Tapit Trice maybe peeking too soon? Ran a 1 off a 4.25 thoro…that is a big jump! Do you think he can at least pair it in the Derby?
He was coming off a pairing so he needed to improve several points. I think another 1 can win this Derby. He doesn’t need to improve much if at all
He still is a bit green in some ways and still has a bit of maturing to do. He’s just so darn talented
Hopefully, Tapit Trice gets a mid-pack post position that’s his biggest problem to face getting away cleanly. As you say, the most talented colt running.
Thank you for the opinion Steve
Steve – thanks so much for all of the insights, storytelling, and great writing. I read the posts from this fellowship every day and my excitement builds for the first Saturday in May. I am looking forward to pedigree analysis, especially for the Japanese horses.
Thank you Greg. Actually I’m toning down the pedigrees at this late stage. But I will be touching on it in part 2.
I’m with you, Steve. Forte only does as much as he needs to in his wins. I find speed figure bettors to be easy pickings and I think them for their money.
I’m glad you’re not biased. LOL. I’m all for speed figures, but sometimes you have to look beyond them. Sometimes its about the individual more than the speed figures.
Oh, and thanks fo breaking the deafening silence. Lol
Is Forte related to Mr. Ed? I know he is talented, but not this talented.
Continuar (JPN) the other Japan that is in the race. I dont see in Bold. thoughts on this one at this point. his father was a sprinter but bred ot be a champion long distance horse just had some breathing problems so they let him sprint instead. the real japan trainer has this horse not Derma. he did not need anything in dubai other than a nice effort and good paycheck. he has been within a head before of Derma with no problem. 40-1 ?
Mitono O 40 $273,040
1. Perrière* 36 $333,601
2. Derma Sotogake* 20 $582,164
Hero Call 16 $244,286
3. Mokku Mokku 16 $168,260
Z Lien 12 $172,038
4. Continuar* 10 $273,889
he was way back in the Japan road. how did he even get an invite. they need to do something on this. if top 2 say no then no japan entry is no??
You have updated this list….
UAE Derby points are included for Japanese Horses.
no these are only the points on the side contest for road to derby at Japan. so PErriere won but declines, derma was second but decline as he got in another way (it should then stop), her call must not wanted to come, Mokku Mokku must have said no, Lien said no. and then they ask continuar??? thats just wrong. nothing against the horse and I think he could run well here.
or Im missing something. maybe have to be nominated first? so hes really 3rd ? and top two said no and he said yes??
There is no side contest.
Look at 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby on Wikipedia and the reference for the standings from Churchill Downs Inc. which is clearly explained about the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The top horse from Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby was Derma Sotogake with 120 points but he qualified via the Main Road to the Kentucky Derby. Perriere’s connections declined as you mentioned which left Continaur with 40 points (10 points from his win in Japan and 30 points from his UAE Derby 3rd place finish). And Continuar’s connections accepted the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby entry!
Continuar’s 30 points from the UAE Dervby were transferrable to the Road to Japan points he had earned which gives him a total of 40.
If you go to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Road_to_the_Kentucky_Derby you will see the list of all horses that won points in all the preps including the European Road and the Japan Road.
A gate in the Derby is reserved for the winner of the UAE Derby, the European Road and the Japan Road.
Yes they have to be nominated to the Triple Crown races and pay all the same fees that American horses do.
Lynda,
This is interesting and also the link shows the current list with everybody under King Russell showing “bypassing”. Is that accurate? I know it’s a stretch that he’d get in but why not run Red Route 1 if he got in?
Hi Killerfrog,
I have tried to make sense of the KD rules for nominations to the Triple Crown Races and the associated fees.
The nomination fees of course have to be paid in full by the closing dates for the nominations.
There are additional fees, starter fees and entry fees at $25,000 each and an additional $500 for a jockey fee.
It sounds like these fees have to be paid by the closing date for entries.
The Preakness and Belmont stakes also have starter and entry fees but they are not as much as for the Derby.
Just making a guess that the connections for the colts with very few points have decided to bypass the chance to make the gate for the Derby and move on to other races including the Preakness and the Belmont or they might decide to enter the undercard races.
I will look further into that and if I find out I will post.
This is the first time I have dug so deeply into the processes and procedures for entering the Derby.
Lynda,
Thanks for your answer and the idea of not paying the fees at this point does make sense as does the listed cut-off for King Russell. Just to keep it interesting though if all of these are “bypassing” why not submit entry for say Il Miracolo…. the fact that he has only 2 Derby points after 5 Derby preps wouldn’t matter…. and he could ride it out further as I believe they allow 4 AEs and an AE won last year after a Lukas horse didn’t go.
From the Condition book for the Kentuck Derby
Furthermore, pursuant to rules published by CDRT, one invitation to compete in the Kentucky Derby will be extended with preference given to the top four-point earning horses in the “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby” series. If a “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby” top four-point earning horse also qualifies through America’s “Road to the Kentucky Derby” series, which includes the UAE Derby, the invitation will be extended to the next eligible “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby” top four-point earning horse. Provided a “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby” top four-point earning horse does not accept the invitation, CDRT reserves the right to offer one invitation to a horse from Japan whose performance in Group races in Japan has been exceptional. In the event of any ties resulting from the “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby” Point System, preference will be given to the starter that has accumulated the highest lifetime earnings as of April 15, 2023
After the Closing, CDRT shall designate in order of preference the nominees that are also-eligible to start in accordance with these conditions (“Also Eligible Horses”). If a starter is scratched from the Kentucky Derby before 9:00 a.m. (Eastern Daylight Time) on Friday, May 5, 2023 (“Scratch Deadline”), then the Also Eligible Horse with the highest preference (if any) as determined by these conditions shall become a starter. All starters and Also Eligible Horses must be stabled at Churchill Downs by 11:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, May 1, 202
Killerfrog, there have been years that because of defections and scratches that horses havevgotten into the Derby with 14 points.
However in those years the bubble was not as high as this year or as many horses riding on the bubble.
In previous years under the points system the top 5 to 7 points earners had higher total points than this year.
Not sure how many AEs are in line. Have not seen the AEs on the Kentucky Derby site yet, unless it was posted yesterday.
As of yesterday there were still horses to arrive at CHD.
There are I think several horses that are in that have not committed to race.
Maybe I should update that to either “not qualifying” rather than bypass. But you can update wikipedia yourself is you have a correct reference. I have been using the official Churchill Downs Ins media which by now has a strikethrough for those horse which have not enough qualification points and simply have left bypass since about Week 7 of Steve’s list update.
I have answered your question, comment is being held for moderation because I included a web site that has all the points listed.
Of the many Derby preps I attended one—The San Felipe, run in 1:42 flat, by a horse who drew away late, and had a big gap on the gallop out….I think that was the best 3yo performance of 2023 so far …
Matthew, Lot’s of reasons to like PM and now the odds will be another
Also he’s over 1200 lbs, could survive a bump or three, in such a large field…
Derma Sotagake galloped 4f in 49:60 this morning.
His exercise rider said afterwards that he could now get excited about the Derby.
Swiss Skydiver’s foal is a mini me.
SS was sold for 4.7 million at 2021 Fasig-Tipton November Sale to Northern Farm (Japan).
Shipped to England to be bred to Kingman before shipping to Japan.
SS is 4SX5D to Halo.
I was watching the video on YouTube of the Japanese horses training and I came away with a deep respect for their exercise riders. They seem to be in very close touch with the horse, paying close attention to what the horse is telling them. These guys are very good.
Hi Predict
I have been following Japanese horse racing for several years now.
Many of my friends on FB follow horse racing and several follow Japan. Also have FB friends who live in other countries who do as well.
In the past couple of weeks I have spent a lot of time researching Japan horse racing and what I have learned is just fascinating!
I love their enthusiasm and love of the horses and the sport.
I was watching as well and that exercise rider had a good hold on Derma. He looks like he has his energy even after all that travel. That travel is the only negative I see with this horse. Otherwise, I am excited to watch him run his race on Saturday.
Hi, Steve…
So happy you are still doing your thing in the Spring after all these years as it relates to the Run for the Roses… Your insights are always respected, valued and appreciated, my man! Keep up the good work!
Another awesome first jewel of the American Triple Crown ahead of us and you can make a case for all the projected participants, as we have learned especially after last year’s “striking”, shocking upset, anything can happen in those cataclysmic couple of minutes; it’s always up for grabs at Churchill Downs!
For what’s it worth, my two cents (more like one and three-quarter cents) for KY Derby 149 (for now)…
Forte is definitely the one to beat as we all know, his last showed his class, he said to Mage and Cyclone Mischief at the sixteenth pole of the Florida Derby, “No way are you guys gonna beat me!” and he did it overcoming a wide draw and being overtaken while midpack by Mage on the final turn. Mad respect for Forte indeed. However, you can’t pay bills when you play favorites, but I will keep him in my exotics and combine him with (after doing all the research and dispensing with traditional handicapping methods) the two horses owned by donut shop proprietors and/or families of one-time donut shop proprietors:
Disarm (so glad he got in and Asmussen who got his 10,000th win this year is long overdue for a Derby win esp. just getting caught in the waning, winning yards last year) and Raise Cain, like you said,his Blue Grass was not bad and he shares the same sire that Forte has in Violence and he should be a nice price!
Thanks, Steve! Good luck, everybody and “May the horse be with you!” – the immortal Harvey Pack
Hi Steve,
So happy you are still doing your thing in the Spring after all these years as it relates to the Run for the Roses… Your insights are always respected, valued and appreciated, my man! Keep up the good work!
Another awesome first jewel of the American Triple Crown ahead of us and you can make a case for all the projected participants, as we have learned especially after last year’s “striking”, shocking upset, anything can happen in those cataclysmic couple of minutes; it’s always up for grabs at Churchill Downs!
For what’s it worth, my two cents (more like one and three-quarter cents) for KY Derby 149 (for now)…
Forte is definitely the one to beat as we all know, his last showed his class, he said to Mage and Cyclone Mischief at the sixteenth pole of the Florida Derby, “No way are you guys gonna beat me!” and he did it overcoming a wide draw and being overtaken while midpack by Mage on the final turn. Mad respect for Forte indeed. However, you can’t pay bills when you play favorites, but I will keep him in my exotics and combine him with (after doing all the research and dispensing with traditional handicapping methods) the two horses owned by donut shop proprietors and/or families of one-time donut shop proprietors:
Disarm (so glad he got in and Asmussen who got his 10,000th win this year is long overdue for a Derby win esp. just getting caught in the waning, winning yards last year) and Raise Cain, like you said,his Blue Grass was not bad and he shares the same sire that Forte has in Violence and he should be a nice price!
Thanks, Steve! Good luck, everybody and “May the horse be with you!” – the immortal Harvey Pack
I am probably the biggest flip-flopper in this community (not proud of it). But that’s because I never stop digging into the data.
My latest thought is…. OH MY GAWD on VERIFYING.
I looked beyond his Blue Grass for the first time today, and came away thinking, how is he not considered the most dangerous horse coming into this derby??
* HUGE pace advantage (as Steve noted above)
* Trained by Brad Cox (the trainer I fear the most these days)
* $775K, daddy Justify
* Race pattern his last 3 says he’s ready for a smasher
* Battled on the lead a good portion of his final prep, both to start and end the race, including a full stretch battle vs. $1.3M Tapit Trice (give me a good old toughen you up prep over a stroll in the park prep any day)
So with all of that, how can I not jump off Two Phil’s and onto Verifying? I just did.
I will be very surprised if Verifying is not ultra tough in this race.
I read that Verifying also has the X-chromosome, Large heart trait.
Steve, another fascinating column with much to think about and immensely pleasurable to read. It’s not often these days that you read something that is pure joy from start to finish. Your leading ‘gang of four’ appear to be the most talented colts coming up to the Derby at this stage. I’d probably follow the Thoro-Graph numbers by having them: Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Forte, and Practical Move in descending order but honestly they are all on the same par.
Tapit Trice’s performance in the Blue Grass Stakes has impressed me the most, for such an inexperienced colt his endeavour to win no matter what bodes well for the Kentucky Derby. He has negative issues as well, mainly inexperience and relatively slow to get going, but the determination to win is unflinching. Angel of Empire just looks the part, it would be a real surprise if he wasn’t on the board. Forte’s and Practical Move’s final preps were not that enthusiastic but you tend to believe they will be there and not just making up the numbers.
Inevitably, an outsider always places in the Kentucky Derby with Mage and Skinner, should he get in the field, the most likely candidates here. The two colts that seem obvious dangers to upset the above thinking are Verifying and Derma Sotogake. That’s too many horses, lol, but hopefully, post position will slice this cake up.
Looking forward to next week’s edition already. Thanks again, Steve, the four months are almost over now then it’s all gone for another year. Getting melancholy.
S,
Read and enjoy your weekly column on the 3 yr olds …
I am an avid horse player and use my own methodology while usually betting the exotics. The racing form is my go to research as I have limited time because of my career. The Beyer
Numbers are a premier speed tool for me. I have come to the opinion that the edge once enjoyed by using Andy’s work has been diluted because everyone now has easy access. It is still important, however, I would like to enhance the Beyers and other tools by leaning more about the Thoro-Graph numbers you often discuss. I confess total ignorance regarding the Thoro-Graph data and suspect many others do as well.
In one of your future piece regarding racing history or handicapping , maybe you could explain why it is so important, explain in a bit of detail, and mention a few specific examples where it was the deciding edge.
Again, I appreciate your work and contribution to the game.
Pat Reddell
Thanks Patty. Explaining Thoro-Graph is a long and complicated procedure, a lot of it I dont know. What is most important is knowing that it takes into consideation the trip, mainly the loss of grounds…how much farther a horse traveled than the others. If you email me at sehaskin@aol.com I’ll find a place to send you for more info.
Patty, my rsponse is on hold because I gave you my email address. Keep checking back.
Nice to see you still doing your thing Steve! I have to say that to me Sun Thunder’s two last races looked like workouts…(securing his spot in the Derby) I think he will grind them down with the right trip….This could be McPeek’s year….Love the Breeding on this horse as well—-Upset Special!!!!
Hi Steve
I agree with most of your analysis, however I wonder if Forte’s last race took too much out of him. He showed tremendous.
heart to get up win the Florida Derby, but he really had to bottom out to get there. I was extremely impressed with Mage’s
effort, He broke terrible, made a huge wide run and went by Forte easy into to the stretch and just failed to last. He doesn’t
need to improve much to win the Derby. Seems like he has the most upside of all the runners. Of course he’ll have to break better and get into the race sooner.
When you have only 2 starts it’s better to have a tough race than two easy races. He was hit twice and then was hand ridden in the final yards. He also has 5 weeks to bounce back. If that that race emptied him out well see signs of it in his training. Street Sense was the first to have only 2 starts and he had 2 gutwrenchers. Many Derby winners were coming off very hard races. I’m not going to talk anyone out of going off him and he could go backwards. But I’m ot going to make too much out of it right now.
You’re right it could be just what Forte needed. I guess we need to watch his works closely. thanks Steve.
I believe Steve was referring to Mage in his response to you.
David
I didn’t want to love Forte, but I do. After reading your comments about his speed I am wondering is he so smart that he puts into the race what he needs to in order to win? Perhaps, he is capable of a faster race,but if he doesn’t need to, why? I believe he will be the betting favorite, and while the Derby can be highly unpredictable, I think I am putting him into win
Ushba Tesero, winner of the 2023 Dubai World Cup will be staying on dirt and will pointed to the Breeders Cup Classic rather than the Arc. Plans for one prep race before the BC.
Ushba Tersero is by Orfevre (JPN)* out of Millifeu Attach (King Kamehameha).
Inbreeding Northern Taste 4SX5
*Orfevre grandsire is Sunday Silence.
Hmm…could we see a Japanese bred KD winner or Japanese bred Preakness winner going up against another Japanese bred horse in the Classic?
First I want to thank Steve for all the hard work he puts in every week writing the Derby Dozen Ranking. His knowledge & insights amaze me! I don’t post on here, because my lack of knowledge is a little embarrassing, but what Steve shares with us, and the many great, knowledgeable comments that people post on here I had to show my appreciation to say Thank You to everyone.
I have gone back to the Derby Dozen week 1 to the present to read everything again just to see how the rankings have changed through the prep races.
I’m so overwhelmed with the many top contenders this year that last night I dreamed about horses. With that said it’s a beautiful day here in Colorado, so I think I’ll take a drive in the mountains in my 1965 Mustang convertible to clear my head. OH WAIT……mustang= horse. Dang it. Have a great day everyone, and GL in the Kentucky Derby. I pray for safe trips for everyone!
Thank you so much Lee. I appreciate the kind words as I’m sure all the commenters do. Please feel free to comment anytime you want. And never ever feel embarrassed. This column is for everyone. And anyone with a ’65 mustang should never be embarrassed about anything. You are the king of cool.
Forte hit the CHD track for time this morning.
Nice gallop, perfect flying change of leads, ears up.
Love the hear that little snorting noise they make when galloping that are in time with their strides.
Kingsbarn and Major Dude arrived this morning. Kingsbarn appears to be a tall horse. Both looked good to me other than being a bit ribby.
Keeping an eye out for dapples!
LOL, has anyone gathered that I do not like to see prominent ribs on horses.
Again, Kentucky Derby on Twitter posts videos of the horses as they arrive and brief videos of gallops.
Thanks for mentioning Forte’s gallop, he looked good. Do you think he’s gained a little weight?
Hi Discopartner.
I watched a video yesterday of his arrival at CHD.
His court was glowing, on the muscle and not even a hint of a rib.
My opinion is that he has either gained some weight or the FD took very little if anything out of him.
I just think he is gorgeous as my dear friends who bred Arabians used to say “from tip of his nose to the tip of his tail”.
Thank you Lynda, I was just concerned about him putting on weight. Will see in next workout.
DP, I cannot confirm a weight gain.
Hard to see weight gain under tack.
Going forward I will be trying to check Equibase for works at CHD for my 9 probables to win.
Did notice something about Triple Trice though. In addition to being ribby, he is tucked up in the flank.
In some cases this is an indicator of a horse being underweight.
Not saying he is, however, rather expressing my opinion that it is not something I like to see in a Thoroughbred.
Kingsbarn and Major Dude are also ribby, middle 3 clearly defined.
Kingsbarn appears to be a really big guy, either that or a very short person was leading him.
There are just certain things I look for in these Derby contenders…weight, muscle, coat condition, attitude (how they are settling in to CHD).
I recall poor Dorman. Probably the thinnest Derby contender I have ever seen. I could count every single rib and he too had that tucked up flank.
Correction – Dortmund not Dorman…darn auto correct.
Lynda when I’m at the walking ring I always look for dapples! Mandella’s lightly raced Geaux Rocket Ride was full of dapples, before running a good 2nd….is can be a sign of extreme fitness! There are close to ten with a winner’s chance, this year! The races have been run, time now to watch for the little things, like dapples…and how horse responds to rider’s prompts, I look at the horse’s ears and rider’s hands!..
In 2012 I had I’ll Have Another….what got my interest was a work he had in February, and the way he communicated with his rider. ..he was a smart horse—a horse’s MIND is of huge importance!..
The horse’s mind and intelligence is very important regardless of the horse sport.
Horses are in many ways are very much like humans.
Some are more intelligent than others and they like humans reach mental maturity at different ages.
I think that is one factor, many people forget, if in fact they ever knew it.
These horses might be 17 hands, weigh 1200 pounds, heavily muscled, have stellar pedigrees and near perfect conformation but if they have not mentally matured, they will be difficult to train and might fail to perform well in a race.
These colts are very much like 8 year old little boys and the fillies like 8 year old little girls.
You can train, train, train for days for weeks but they have to actually race to learn.
Secretariat was an intelligent horse, so was California Chrome, Zenyatta and American Pharoah.
I had a lot of respect for Bob Baffert (just using him as an example) until I heard the way he talked about War Emblem.
He strongly disliked War Emblem and the horse knew it and disliked Baffert.
Sometimes the horse, like a dog is smarter than their human, LOL.
That is one thing that helped Secretariat. He had in Lucien Laurin, Ron Turcotte, Eddie, Penny and his other handlers, people who genuinely knew how to connect with horses. Same with California Chrome, Zenyatta and Beholder.
A horse will go to the end of the earth for you if you are connected mentally with them.
This is something I have picked up on with some of the Japanese trainers, jockeys and handlers.
Thanks for sharing your insights with you us as well as your knowledge of horses Lynda.
War Emblem was such a smart horse and he had a wonderful bond with Michael Blowen.
Great trainers and horsemen know how to connect with their horses no matter what the horse’s personality. They don’t have a program for a horse to follow. The program they have is all about the individual horse’s needs and getting the most out of each horse.
TerriZ, you are welcome.
The cookie cutter approach does not work with ALL horses, regardless of discipline.
Each horse is indeed an individual just like each person is.
I think Jimmy Jerkens is underestimated as a trainer; he learned from his father: The Chief. That’s why so many “difficult” horses are sent to him.
And one more thing…my comment was not something I read on the internet, LOL.
It comes from a lifetime of experience with horses and from my Dad.
Hey Matthew,
I too love to see dapples peeking through a shiny, healthy coat.
Hi Steve,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and insights. Regarding Derma Sotogake’s extra hype, I think Manderin Hero’s effort in the SA Derby helped validate him as a legit contender.
Best,
Hammer
Thanks Hammer. He was the wise guy horse before the S A Derby and really is. Ow.
Oops. Now
I cannot toss Two Phil’s! Two Phil’s, Mage, Skinner are my three longshots, putting in Forte and Practicle Move for a 5-horse Tri box, leaves out some good horses but 2023 is full of contenders!
Steve, you moved Two Phil’s up to #6! 🙂
Playing off your analogy, maybe TP is Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting, and the Jeff Ruby was him solving the math problem at the University. Do you see the potential now?
My strongest opinion in this derby is Two Phil’s finishing 1st or 2nd. I’m going purely by last race. I ranked his performance in the Jeff Ruby best of all the preps. And Derma Sotogake’s UAE second best.
Thus, I’ll be betting the derby like this…
* 100 Win, $100 Place TP = $200
* $1 Exacta Box TP w/all = $38
* $4 Exacta Box TP w/Derma = $8
* $1 Exacta Box TP w/Forte,Tapit = $4
“You like dapples?” “How you like them dapples?!” lol 🙂
Not being on the backstretch anymore my Dapple Days ae over. I agree that those are the two most impresssive performances by the numbers.
Hi Steve
When you stated that “Angel of Empire is now the head honcho in the Cox barn, I’m wondering if Cox would agree with you.
He has two other colts that have made the Derby starting gate, (Hit Show and Verifying) that are not exactly chopped liver.
What odds would you make all three in the Derby? You really think Hit Show is the head honcho? Why does saying Angel of Empire is the head honcho means that the other two are chopped liver?
My predicted Derby favorites—#1 Forte…#2 Angel of Empire…#3 Derma S…..#4 Taput Trice….#5 Practical Move…..Practical Move 10-1 hasn’t done anything wrong but that’s the 2023 Kentucky Derby!..
Don’t take my comment so serious, I was just trying to get a rise out of you. 🙂
Frankly, I have no idea what the odds will be on those three horses, although of the three, I suspect the odds on Angel of Empire will be lower than Hit Show and Verifying. The all important post position draw could have a major impact on all three horses.
As of now, my longshot pick in the Derby is Confidence Game. In Pool 5, I boxed him with Hit Show in a $20.00 exacta wager.
Should Hit Show finish 1st and Confidence Game finish 2nd, I would cash for $27.850. In Pool 3, I keyed Hit Show on top with the entire Pool 3 field, which would provide some pretty hefty payouts if Hit Show wins the Derby.
In addition, in Pool 5, I keyed Confidence Game on top with the entire Pool 5 field, which would provide decent payouts as well.
In Pools 3,4 and 5, I boxed Practical Move with Hit Show in several big exacta wagers, which would pay $20,814 if Hit Show finishes 1st. My first Futures bet this year was a $100.00 win wager on Hit Show at 77-1.
Good luck Steve, and thanks for all you do with your Weekly Derby Rankings.
I didnt take it seriously and didnt get a rise. Just posing some questions back at you.
Thanks Steve for a great year of writing since this will be the last derby rankings this year.
Skinner at 33-1 hope he gets in and hope those odds stay true. Reincarnate at 40-1 would be enticing as well especially if he gets the lead. Wide open heat, more than likely a photo finish. In the end, I want an American horse to win.
I appreciate it, thanks.
Since there a lull, now in the Kentucky Kentucky Derby run up—I’ll talk about my favorite Triple Crown….
I was 14 when Secretariat ran the three greatest races, in a five week span….by then I had my paper route and moved people on Sundays, mostly offices, with a couple other 14 year old guys….I always had money and I always had the Saturday Racing Form, ($.75)…I was introduced to Horse Racing by my father, he made up a daily pool, and I became hooked, by this intriguing sport, intriguing…and beautiful!
The greatest Triple Crown in terms of RACES, came five years later, I was at the rail when Affirmed won the Santa Anita and Hollywood Derbys, both were Kentucky Derby preps… Affirmed and Alydar battled like the two great horses that they were!..
1989 was one of my first Derby wagers, I was 30 but you couldn’t (legally) wager on The Derby until the mid 80s….the two favorites ran one/two but my straight $51 trifecta of Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, Dansil paid over $5,000, and then came the greatest horse ace of my lifetime, their epic Preakness, in where a book could get written about that one race!..
My favorite Triple Crown was 1997. All three races were terrific races, with terrific horses, the best being the Preakness, another epic! The 1989 and 1997 Preakness are two of the three greatest Triple Crown races of my lifetime, the third being the 1978 Belmont, which is one of if not the greatest horse race ever run, (I liked the 1989 Preakness because there were more things happening in the race), but 1997 had five real nice horses: Silver Crown, Free House, Touch Gold, Captain Bodget, Pulpit….and they all ran well ….Silver Charm abides!
Matthew W, great story! Thank you for sharing.
Thanks for sharing Matthew, what a ride you had. Awesome stuff.
Matthew, as a big fan of Sunday Silence, I too consider the 1989 Preakness as the greatest race I’ve ever seen. I still get chills and thrills watching it today. As for Silver Charm, 1997 was a tough challenge handicapping the Derby and fortunately, I ended up on Silver Charm. The gutsy gray came through beating four of the best from a very good crop of 3 yos.
It’s still early to try and evaluate the quality of this year’s 3 yos., but the Derby should answer a lot of questions about this bunch. Wouldn’t it be something if Forte and Tapit Trice developed a rivalry? Then again, being in the same barn, most likely Todd Pletcher would keep them apart going forward, unless the owners were real sportsmen and allowed the two horses to go head to head. Hmm!
I made a bundle on SS in the Derby….I think I also played him in the Preakness, in their four battles the favorite lost every time….despite being a west coast guy I have always thought Easy Goer was better, I thought Easy was one of the best ever—odd thing was he took the turns slow….compared with when they straightened out, where he was lights out powerful!
After Sunday Silence won the Super Derby by seven easy lengths….Shug/Phipps put Easy Goer into the Jockey Club Gold Cup, 12 furlongs…and they did not count on Cryptoclearence running his best race that day, the race timed out fast, and just like that Easy Goer lost his edge—he couldn’t keep up when SS made his move….but was charging late, in the Classic— two very good horses, there was Affirmed/Alydar and Sunday Silence/Easy Goer, as good as it gets..
Yes, Matthew, those were two of the greatest rivalries in horse racing. We could use a good rivalry today, as racing needs the stimulus that rivalries produce. East -vs- West make for the best rivalries. We’ll know more after the Triple Crown if one develops later this year.
BTW, One rivalry that race fans were pining for, and never developed, was Rachel Alexandra -vs- Zenyatta. It seems that the owners were afraid of one another as they repeatedly avoided each other???
Matthew, it’s so much fun to read other people’s history in racing. My favorite Triple Crown was actually across the pond when Nijinsky won the almost impossible feat. The 2,000 Guineas was on a Thursday April 30, the Epsom Derby was on a Wednesday, June 3, so we were at school and had a crystal radio set hidden under the desk with earphones shared between two lads listening to hear if Nijinsky was going to do the business, he did. We thumped the desk when he won which annoyed the teachers but they had no idea we were listening.
The 194th St Leger was on Saturday September 12, it was slightly less exciting as the first 2 jewels because you expected Nijinsky to win plus we didn’t have to furtively hear the result through trickery. Nonetheless, it was magical something you never forget.
In the US, Seattle Slew’s Triple Crown is my favorite, some horses you just simply adore and Slew was everything – undefeated.
Davids: Wonderful story about you and other lads listening to the first jewels of the English triple crown on the radio — a crystal set, no less! Didn’t the U.K. have transistors in 1970?!
Thanks Ms Blacktype. Ha ha Yes, they had transistors but crystal sets had the added bonus of simply attaching them to a metal to work which fascinated children at the time. How life has changed!!
Sunday Silence and his sons, predominantly Deep Impact, have topped 26 of the past 28 years of the Leading Sires List. You think Into Mischief and Tapit are dominant sires, they simply don’t compare to the Halo sire line stallions above. Prior to Sunday Silence, Northern Taste had topped the Japanese sire list 10 times so Sunday Silence provided the perfect outcross to this Northern Dancer sire line dominance.
There was too much Norther Dancer blood back then just as there is too much Sunday Silence blood now so buying outcross broodmares from the US has been a major objective of Japanese breeders in recent years. Go through the Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton brood are sales for the evidence.
“Most Japanese stallions are free of Northern Dancer influence aside from one generation. The bloodlines provided by Sunday Silence and Halo are also uncommon in American bred mares, thus creating a desirable and successful outcross.”
from “Yoshida Brothers, Royalty of Japanese Breeding Industry” – November 14, 2019
The Yoshida brothers – Shadai Stallion Station, Northern Farm, Oiwake Farm – have bought over the last several years a large selection of star American mares. They bought Breeders’ Cup winners Stephanie’s Kitten, Finest City, Wavell Avenue, Musical Romance, Dubai Majesty, Ginger Punch, Azeri, Ria Antonia, Awesome Feather, and Stardom Bound. Along with a few Kentucky Oaks winners as well to join their broodmare band: Lovely Maria, Princess of Sylmar, and Proud Spell.
These are only part of a raft of Grade 1, 2, and 3 winning mares that have also been purchased by the Yoshidas. Just in 2019 alone they purchases: Fatale Bere, Thewayiam, Aurelia’s Belle, Callback, Chelsea Cloisters, Danuska’s My Girl, Eskimo Kisses, Escape Clause, Champagne Anyone, Photo Call, Secret Spice, and Vasilika.
The Japanese are buying US broodmare prospects, free of Sunday Silence blood, to outcross from their oversupply of rich Sunday Silence blood. Moreover, if the US bloodlines are so bankrupt, as some ‘think,’ why are the Japanese buying all that stock from the US? Obviously, someone’s got it wrong but it’s not the Japanese. Lol.
Great post, Davids! I see a lot of Japanese stakes winners in every female family I’ve studied. Sixty years ago the predominant male strains were Tony Bin and a horse named Partholon (not Parthenon). Was thinking about Lynda’s comment about breeding selectively — Group 1 winning mares often have only a handful of foals, and broodmares are often retired early. Shudder to think if that had happened to Somethingroyal. There was an 11-year gap between Sir Gaylord and Secretariat, two titans of racing and breeding in America. Somethingroyal was bred up to the age of 25 and lived to be 31.
Can’t wait to see what Japanese breeders accomplish in coming years.
Thank you, Ms Blacktype. It’s fascinating following the breeding patterns in various countries isn’t it? The Japanese initially followed the earlier breeding pattern of the Europeans. Then followed the European lead of mixing US speed infused lines with the European stamina they had, predominantly Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector lines. Australia/New Zealand followed a bit later with Dabehill dominating after the dominance of Sir Tristram (Sir Ivor).
Where Japan separated itself with Europe was the importation of Sunday Silence, and history followed. Now with too much Sunday Silence/Deep Impact blood the Japanese are selectively buying high quality US racemares/broodmares devoid of Halo blood to reinvigorate their lines there. It’s be fascinating watching the Japanese breeders improve and improve with their stock.
Europe, to a certain extent, stopped investing in US bloodstock while concentrating with the various Northern Dancer lines they had but there comes a time when new blood is necessary. Europe began using Deep Impact to reinvigorate the dominance of Saddler’s Wells and Galileo. The Aga Khan believing that there was too much Northern Dancer blood in Europe started using some Australian sires.
The US, similarly to Europe, stopped important foreign sires and concentrated on the Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Nasrullah. Hopefully, the ‘old’ US fashion of importing top class foreign sires from Europe, Australia and now Japan will start up again as the Japanese appear to have marched ahead than everyone and good luck to them. This is way to brief but it’s so interesting.
I agree. I’ve learned so much about the breeding industry on Steve’s blog — and I’ve been obsessed with pedigree research since I was 12! You and Lynda King get the biggest shout outs.
One of my greatest hopes is watching a son of Flightline, Essential Quality, Tacitus et al, a progeny of from the Nasrullah line win the Epsom Derby again. Those lines are very scarce in Europe now when they once flourished. Mill Reef and his sons were quite dominant in the 1970s early 80s.
It’s unfortunate that the poster sceptre doesn’t write here anymore. Over the years I’ve learnt so much from him and he could direct you on rare books and magazines that were available online or read from various libraries.
Ms B, over the past few weeks I have spent the rainy days and cool nights researching the history of the Japanese breeding program for 50 years, since Northern Taste retired from racing.
I have learned some very interesting things about their approach to breeding and racing Thoroughbreds.
Many years ago when I was working for McCormick and Company, one of the largest and oldest privately held food companies in the United States, we attended multiple in house seminars on the Japanese methods for process improvement, increasing productivity and other methods the Japanese developed. During my research it occurred to me that they have incorporated some of these methods into the breeding and racing of horses.
One very interesting I found as well is they make sure small breeders have access to all the stallions, offer free or very low cost breeding advice and offer low cost loans to small breeders for the stud fees.
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Thanks for sharing your insights with you us as well as your knowledge of horses Lynda.
War Emblem was such a smart horse and he had a wonderful bond with Michael Blowen.
Great trainers and horsemen know how to connect with their horses no matter what the horse’s personality. They don’t have a program for a horse to follow. The program they have is all about the individual horse’s needs and getting the most out of each horse.
Probably the most “open” KD I’ve seen in years. A case can be made for the top 5 horses to win….oh, excuse me, the top 10 horses….dang, my bad…the top 15 horses.
This is not a KD whereas a super horse such as Justify stood head and shoulders above, pardon the pun, everyone else. And it is not another Baffert run race where one of his trained horses, American Pharoah, became an American horseracing icon.
Instead, this a KD where an argument can be made for multiple horses.
That said, I’ve been sliding towards the horses from Japan for awhile now with one horse DS locked into the race while the other MH waiting on defections.
Rather, I’m going to wait on the post positions and of course the weather.
Hi Steve – I read today that Joel Rosario has been named to ride Disarm in the KY Derby. His connections believe Disarm will appreciate the Derby Distance of 1 1/4. Disarm has been reported to have come out of his Lexington race well and is headed for CD. KingsBarns is my pick to win the KY Derby at double digit odds. I like the way you described KingsBarns as pressing more on the accelerator in the KY Derby to gain forward position or maybe even the lead. His biggest asset IMO is his sharp break from the gate and his tactical speed. Thanks Steve for another outstanding job of covering the lead up to the KY Derby with your insights and in depth analysis.
If Mandarin Hero gets in he’s Live!
Love the final derby rankings. I’ve never liked SO many horses after all the preps are over. It will be a thrilling derby with no controversies or bizarre results [fingers crossed]. Off on a two-week vacation tomorrow, and I hope to return to find Skinner and Mandarin Hero as entries as a result of realistic decisions by some connections.
Have a great time, Roberta. You might be lucky with Skinner and Mandarin Hero there are a few that would be better suited elsewhere. Oaklawn and Keeneland have some nice races this Saturday.
Thank you, Davids. I hope you enjoy this weekend’s races. Until May…adieu.
Passe de bonnes vacances mon ami, au revoir. Until May.
Merci! 🙂
Hope you have a great vacation and nice weather. Enjoy!
Thank you, Lynda. Leaving for the airport in 2 hours!
Triple Trice and Forte have arrived at CHD today.
Both look bright eyed and bushy tailed.
Forte as usual, a picture of perfection.
Triple Trice is a bit ribby, 3 showing but otherwise looks great. Love his spots. Look like snowflakes sprinkled on his back. Pretty head.
You can follow Kentucky Derby on Twitter and see videos of the horses as they arrive, unloaded and walking to their stalls.
I said the same exact words about Trice Lynda, “looks a bit ribby” lol.
I expect Confidence Game to go to the front. His winning efforts at Churchill were wire to wire. He has speed, wet or fast track. I think he’ll be tough, and Graham is way under rated. I’ll be using him. And can’t ignore the Zenyatta angle. Thanks for all the great stuff Steve!
Steve, always appreciate your insight and seemingly unbiased analysis. I tend so be very biased with trainers, jocks, and even some ownership, so I am not a very successful when betting. But I sure do like the horses and watching them run. Derma and Two Phil’s are certainly a guess for me as well. I was impressed with Mendelssohn’s UAE derby(which I think was faster than Derma’s), but he failed to do anything in the derby. I will probably end up on the Pletcher’s and hope I don’t lose like I did in ’18(Magnun Moon), and ’22(Mo Donegal and Charge It). I also appreciate the commenters here. Maybe the rude and childish are removed, but it is nice to read more civilized comments.
Streakindash, the rude and childish folks are all over at the political sites/blogs!! And that’s where I hope they stay!! What makes this site so refreshing is that everyone on here is respectful of others’ opinions and comments! And the topic stays on horse racing…..well most of the time. LOL
Steve, here’s another thing Skinner and Giacomo have in common–the weather.
The winter of Giacomo’s season, California also had a ton of rain that disrupted training, just like this year.
Hello Steve.
Thanks again for another informative and thought provoking column.
Until now I have not commented on my ranking for the 2023 Derby.
I fully realize that a couple are on the outside looking in and I have seen nothing that would compel me to jump off Forte’s bandwagon.
Now just a little housekeeping so I can clear out my draft document folder.
Yes, I am one of many who is very high on the Japanese entries. Japan is in it to win it. They have arrived on the International stage with fireworks. There are three races that they are high on winning; the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders Cup Classic and the Arc. Additionally I have no problem with the UAE Derby, the European Road and The Japan Road winners earning points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
I do not think that American horse racing can continue to operate in their own little world. The sport desperately needs new fans. If drawing new fans is the result of more International competitors then I am all for it.
Just a little more…I think it was on last week’s rankings that Davids made a comment, ” Too much inbreeding to Sunday Silence”. That is absolutely not true. Japanese bred Thoroughbreds are still at the top when it comes to diversity in the bloodlines. The United States is at rock bottom. Line breeding, inbreeding, selective inbreeding and cross line breeding are four different things. Inbreeding any deeper than 3Sx3D is when the possibility of a defective recessive gene is multiplied.
My probably most likely to win list now that all the preps are done is as follows and they are not ranked so I am listing in alphabetical order.
Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, Derma Sotogake, Forte, Kingsbarn, Skinner, Mage, Mandarin Hero, Verifying.
I am looking forward to seeing how all the colts work over the coming days. I might drop a horse from my list or add one or commit to 3 or 4 depending on what I see.
For the Kentucky Oaks I am all in for Wet Paint.
The weeks have flown by, Steve. Hard to believe that we are nearing the end of another “Derby Ranking”. On Mondays, I check several times for your post. It is something I look forward to. LOL, almost an addiction like my morning coffee. That is a compliment believe it or not!
I agree with you on Japan including their breeding program from what I have seen. The US needs to diversify more. Looking forward to watching some morning works
Remaining schedule. This the final Derby Rankings. Next week we’ll have a column devoted to pedigrees. Then we’ll have a final analysis/handicapping column Derby week after entries come out.
Steve, the post position draw for the Kentucky Derby is set for Monday, May1, this year. You might want to stay your hand until after the draw. Post draw could be the decider on quite a few.
We all know it likes to “RAIN” on Derby Day so that being said Verifying may do his imitation of Go For Gin or his sire Justify & lead them all the way. Speed & Mud is a complete game changer IMO but he’s still Live Action on a dry track as well. Most of the field looks lackluster lot’s of throw outs for so me I’ll settle for the ones battle tested when it counts most. Verifying,Hit Show,Tapit Trice,Forte in that order for me & agree with you on Blazing Sevens Chad Brown will sneak up & bite you when your not paying attention. California horses I have no clue on after Baffert’s all went bad they just inherited their spots that goes for Japan too a lot of hype & maybe to much to ask this is not Saudi Arabia nor Dubai. Remember the hype when Lani won the UAE Derby he came over kicked down the stalls bit anyone near him fought his jockey during workouts & then broke dead last 20 out of the gates. Everyone is a handicapper this time of year but your insight I do trust & have for a long long time. Wait for Post Position draw,weather & how they train at CD until then it’s just throwing darts…..
Mage and Tapit Trice both have had problems out of the gate in their races; I can’t see that being beneficial in a stampede. Kinsgbarns had a soft lead in his prep and his lack of experience makes him more of a “late bloomer” candidate for me. Practical Move seemed to be the third best horse in his final prep and he’s only faced 10 or more horses once in his career. I have a 99-1 futures bet on Two Phils so I’ll be rooting hard for that one but I’m not sure he’s the real deal. Angel of Empire is getting no love from the speed figures but just seems to have that winning way. I think Forte is still the one to beat and I’m hopeful that the days leading up to the race will see lots of people begin to knock him so maybe we can get 4-1 on race day!
I’m a big Angel of Empire fan. Disarm is my backup, purely for sentimental reasons. Bring on May 6th!
Enjoyed the way you laid out todays column. Well reasoned description of each candidate with actual new opinions for the regulars. While leaning toward one of your top 10, I still consider myself undecided. Looking forward to your final thoughts.
Thanks very much Todd.
Steve:
Great approach for the rankings this week. This Derby is one of the most competitive in years, yet you’ve put the players in motion in an almost three-dimensional way — which is how the race unfolds, with plenty of checking and bumping! I feel gratified that my two top picks, Tapit Trice and Verifying, have the peaking Thoro-Graph figs going into the race. (That tells me what I saw on the track matched up mathematically!) And your analysis of the strategy that could win it all for Reincarnate is spot on. Going to the front is exactly what Baffert would do if he still had the horse. Question is whether Yakteen will do it.
I see four horses under 10-1, Forte, Angel of Empire, Derma S, Tapit Trice—–leaving Practical Move 10-1….fifth choice…..
The last nose winner of the SA Derby won the Kentucky Derby paying 15-1….won the Preakness paying 7/2…..