Derby Rankings: Week 13
Well, we thought we had all four corners of the puzzle in place just to get us started, but one of those corners got lost under the couch on Saturday, so how are we going to put it together when all the other pieces look alike? It’s too taxing on the brain. Admit it, other than three horses, maybe four, how many can you envision actually winning the Derby? In fact, how many of you can even figure out how the race is going to be run. But the strategy will unfold and someone is going to win it, so let’s at least give it a shot and see if the puzzle starts taking shape. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 13, Apr. 12
By Steve Haskin
1. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
Ranking a horse like this is similar to the NFL draft coming up in a few weeks. You can either draft a player you need to fill a position or draft the player with the most natural ability who looks like he could become a Hall of Famer. I “drafted” Rock Your World not by any logical standards, but because he looks to be the most gifted athlete of the group who has superstar potential. I intially would never have ranked a horse with only two career grass starts at No. 7 unless he showed me something extraordinary. He also seems like the kind of horse who will do whatever you ask him to. I believe the only reason he went to the lead was because the speedy Parnelli drifted out going into the turn and he just inherited the lead being down on the rail. Once he got those big strides going the wisest thing to do was just let him roll. Just when it looked like Medina Spirit was ready to make his move, Respoli let out a notch and in a flash he was almost three lengths clear, showing that same acceleration he showed in his first two races. I have no doubt he will be comfortable sitting off the pace if that’s what they want. Don Robinson, who raised the colt from birth at his Winter Quarter Farm in Lexington, Ky., said he was a “big strong quality horse from the get-go and very professional,” and referred to him as “Mr. Cool.”Although his Thoro-Graph number of “2 ¾ “ was not quite as fast as I expected, he did get big figures on Beyer (100), Brisnet (102), and especially TimeFormUS, where he earned a 124 compared to 118 by Essential Quality. And I do expect him to make another leap forward in the Derby. As a side note of interest, his full-sister was born on March 27 weighing an incredible 165 pounds. Because the mare was having trouble, she was sent to Hagyard Equine Hospital, where they had to use chains to pull her out. It looks like this is a family of beasts.
2. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
I admit I’m taking a shot with the unfinished, but intriguing Rock Your World, but this is the horse who will be on all my tickets. I like the fact that his Thoro-Graph numbers and his Brisnet numbers parallel each other and show an almost identical progression. His Thoro-Graph numbers jumped from an “11” to a “3 ½” to a “1 ½.” To improve in a Grade 1 stakes off such a huge leap indicates a horse who is on an upward spiral. The Brisnet figures back that up, making a big leap from an 82 to a 94 and then another big move forward to a 101. I have discussed his pedigree numerous times, especially all the European stamina influences, and there is no horse on this year’s Derby trail who is more of a sure thing to relish the mile and a quarter. And if you want a horse with a ton of bottom, how many horses can you remember going into the Derby having run 1 1/8 miles four times, winning three? What I love most about him is the dramatic change with blinkers, which has helped him go from a frustrating underachiever to a professional colt who now takes no prisoners. You have to love watching him in action as he gets down and stretches out that neck and reaches out with those long strides. I also feel a close attachment having him ranked No. 8 in week 1 despite him having won only a maiden race by a head and coming off a nine-length defeat in the Remsen Stakes. I feel he is sitting on another big race and he could very well return to No. 1 as things progress in the next few weeks.
3. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
His “zero” Thoro-Graph number in the Blue Grass Stakes following a “negative-1/2” in the Southwest confirms he is the fastest 3-year-old in the country based on trip handicapping. Combine that with his versatility and the ability to beat you from anywhere on the track and you have a solid Derby favorite, especially now that Concert Tour has taken a big step backward. His Brisnet pace figures are strong, indicating he can maintain a solid pace throughout and still come home strong. When you can combine good tactical speed with a a strong closing punch it makes you awfully tough to beat. The bottom line is, whether it’s a fast or sloppy track, there is no way to plot strategy against him or find a chink in his armor. So why isn’t he ranked No. 1? I can’t give a logical answer other than to say I find the top two more interesting and had them ranked high when no one knew anything about them. So call it loyalty or ego, but this is a year I am following the words of Robert Frost: “Two roads diverged in a wood, and I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” I’m just hoping that taking the road less traveled will make all the difference, especially at the mutuel windows. Although I feel the Blue Grass Stakes was an excellent prep and just what he needed, he did look vulnerable through most of the stretch run and was all out to barely beat a horse who had never been two turns. Hey, I’m just looking for anything I can find to justify not having him No. 1.
4. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher, Unon Rags – Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
With the top tier diminishing in number and the rest of them pretty much interchangeable, I just spin the roulette wheel and it keeps landing on his number, so what the heck. Everyone is throwing the Wood Memorial out, especially a horse who got caught late by a 72-1 stablemate in such a slowly run race. But if there is a “tortoise” who can catch all these hares napping it is this vastly improved colt with the outrageously strong pedigree. As for getting beat a head in the Wood, it must be noted that he ran 43 feet farther than the victorious Bourbonic according to Trakus, which is equivalent to about five lengths. So if you want to say he was five lengths better than the winner go right ahead. Let’s not forget that we held the Gotham Stakes one-two finishers, Weyburn and Crowded Trade, in high regard coming off huge speed figures and he put both of them away, one inside him and one outside him, at the eighth pole. And this was coming off a maiden race. We haven’t seen anything close to his best yet, and you could see him with his head up flicking his ears when he got the lead in the Wood and then pinning them back once Bourbonic came alongside him. He may still be a bit green and needs encouragement by the rider, at least I hope that’s the reason why Jose Ortiz hit him 19 times in the stretch. Despite the vigorous whipping he deviated only slightly off his path, which bodes well for his professionalism. In any event, he has plenty of bottom under him coming off two 1 1/8-mile races over ridiculously slow tracks, and his Thoro-Graph numbers have climbed from an “8 ¾” to a “5” to a “2,” with his Wood number being two points faster than the winner and almost a point faster than Rock Your World’s Santa Anita Derby. It is also important to note that he ran a “5” in his second career start last year, which means he has a big early number to fall back on, legitimizing the big numbers he’s running now and his steady progression. I’m not saying he’s going to win the Derby, but don’t be too quick to dismiss him, especially in the exotics. I’m already looking at a Pletcher exacta.
5. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Indan Miss, by Indian Charlie)
He breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 in company with jockey Flavien Prat aboard. It was the best I’ve ever seen him work, as he did it easily, was striding out beautifully down the stretch, and galloped out strong. He is scheduled to work at Santa Anita every Saturday up until the week before the Derby and then ship to Louisville on the Sunday before the race. Like several other California trainers O’Neill is more comfortable training at home and being assured good weather and no disruptions in his schedule. Hot Rod Charlie is one of a number of Derby contenders who have won preps wire-to-wire despite not being true speed horses, which could make it more difficult deciding who will be on the lead. In Charlie’s 94-1 breakout performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he came from seventh, eight lengths off the lead, only to be run down in the final sixteenth by Essential Quality, so, like the champ, you can put him anywhere on the track. In his front-running performance in the Louisiana Derby, jockey Joel Rosario felt strongly he could wire the field and he did just that after getting the green light to send him from O’Neill. What was most impressive was not only turning back a serious challenge from the classy Midnight Bourbon but drawing clear to win by daylight. One thing to remember, however, he has not improved his Thoro-Graph numbers (3 ¾, 3 ¾, and 3 ¾) or his Brisnet numbers (100, 93, then 96) since the Breeders’ Cup, so he has not gotten any faster in the last five months. But you can count on him being right there battling at the eighth pole and we’ll see if he can finish it off.
6. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
He is another who set the pace in his last race, but is not a true speed horse. He just took advantage of a paceless race, was coming off one-turn races, and was breaking from an inside post. For him to hold off Essential Quality until the final strides was a sensational effort. Perhaps it was Highly Motivated forcing Essential Quality out several paths at the eighth pole giving him separation or Highly Motivated getting a bit tired and switching back to his left lead at the sixteenth pole or simply Essential Quality asserting his superiority and class. In any case, it was a gutsy performance from a horse who had never been on the lead and had never been two turns. All I know is that in his last three starts, at 6 ½ furlongs, one mile, and 1 1/8 miles, he has earned a lofty 102 Brisnet speed figure in all three, so it’s obvious this is a fast horse no matter what the distance. In fact, after running a “3” Thoro-Graph number in his two previous starts, he improved to a “1 ½” in his two-turn debut. Now it’s a question whether he can stretch out another furlong. If you’re looking for words of encouragement, his sire’s granddam is by Stop the Music, who sired a Belmont and Travers winner (Temperence Hill) and his dam’s granddam is by Kingmambo, who sired a Belmont and Travers winner (Lemon Drop Kid).
7. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen, Dialed In – Super Girlie, by Closing Argument)
I think I need more time to digest this Johnny come lately who looked good winning the Arkansas Derby, but had a perfect setup with the two favorites battling on the lead in :22 3/5 and :46 2/5 and then crawling home the last three-eighths in :39 3/5. By comparison, in the Oaklawn Mile with good older horses they went the opening half in :47 4/5, so this was set up perfectly for a horse sitting right behind Caddo River and Concert Tour who can close. Even 24-1 shot Get Her Number, coming off a seventh-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, closed well to be beaten only a half-length for second. Also, his Thoro-Graph numbers were pretty slow going into the race, never having run faster than a “7,” and his Beyer figure for the Arkansas Derby was only a 92. This is not to suggest Super Stock isn’t a quality colt. He has never been off the board in six stakes appearances and was beaten only four lengths by Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Futurity. And this was only his second start of the year after a decent fourth in the Rebel, although he was beaten 6 ½ lengths. In his last start at 2 in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs he was beaten a half-length by King Fury, who won the Lexington Stakes Saturday in his 3-year-old debut. So you can take the good with the bad with him, which is why he is ranked somewhere in the middle at this time. This was not a particularly strong Arkansas Derby field, with a small field and not much depth to it. So let’s sit tight for now and add him to the many Derby dilemmas. The way the Derby is looking now, it could actually wind up being another race that sets up perfectly for his running style. We just have no idea how good he is based on this race.
8. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch to Moon, by Malibu Moon)
The key to this horse is whether Caddo River runs and how committed to the lead Dubai invader Panadol is. And if Caddo River doesn’t run, will Baffert just send Concert Tour, feeling that is his most potent weapon and his only shot to win? The reason those are key points is that I believe this colt is much more effective on the lead, and as I have been stating, I don’t know if he has the closing punch to take back off the pace. I do, however, feel if he can get the lead and have them ignore him, feeling he will come back to them, he could be tough to get by in the stretch, much like his sire was. His LeComte Stakes victory is the blueprint he needs to use where he can steal this race, because he can catch them napping and has the pedigree and the tenacity to hold them off once they wake up. But if Caddo River runs or if Concert Tour is determined to get the lead all bets are off, because he doesn’t have their early speed. I do think he is getting stronger and is on a good Thoro-Graph pattern and is capable of popping a big one at any time. I also loved to see him turn in a bullet five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5 at Churchill Downs. So if you’re looking for a talented, consistent, and classy horse who is working well over the track and will be ignored in the betting, he is one to consider for your exotics.
9. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
He’s sort of perplexing in a way. He has as much chance to run a strong race as any of the second tier horses, but I have concerns if he’s fast enough or has the closing punch to actually win. His Thoro-Graph numbers have remained a constant “3” in his last four races and it seems that’s who he is, steady and competitive. He did get a career-high 98 Brisnet number in the Santa Anita Derby, but was he carried to that number by Rock Your World’s 102? With that said, he did have that small ulcer in his throat and was beginning to entrap after the San Felipe and had a procedure done, which meant he had to wait 16 days to have his first work back, so it’s possible he may have been a tad short for the Santa Anita Derby. He still hasn’t shown he possesses the kind of weapon it would take to win the Kentucky Derby, but has shown enough in top-class company to indicate he will be competitive. He is just another of the many pieces to the puzzle.
10. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Bernardini – Dancing Afleet, by Afleet Alex)
He’s a Wood Memorial winner, he turned in by far the most explosive stretch run of the year, he’s a beautiful looking horse, and he has one of the strongest pedigrees of any 3-year-old. So why does everyone dismissing the Wood as a fluke and still consider him a huge longshot for the Kentucky Derby? It apparently is all about the slow time of the race, the fact he was 72-1, and that he was coming off a $50,000 claiming race and a starter allowance race made up of former claimers. Heck, people don’t even know how to correctly pronounce his name. So what do you make of this colt moving forward to the Kentucky Derby at a distance he should relish even more than the 1 1/8 miles of the Wood, which by the way is starting to look stronger in the grand scheme of things. If you’re into historical pedigrees, how about this: Alfred Vanderbilt, one of the most iconic breeders in the history of the sport, bred his third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth dams, with his seventh dam being a full-sister to Native Dancer. There is a saying in racing about betting a horse off a victory in which he paid a monster price and you didn’t have him: if you didn’t go to the wedding don’t go to the funeral. Well, you may have missed the big payoff, but you’re still likely to get 20-1 or higher in the Derby. It may not be the wedding, but you can still cash in on the honeymoon.
11. Concert Tour, Bob Baffert, Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit)
Although he was a horse on the verge of possible Derby favoritism, I can’t rank him any higher until we know what’s going on with him. Even Baffert has no answers for his performance in the Arkansas Derby and hasn’t even committed to the Kentucky Derby until he sees how he works at Churchill Downs. Once we find out he’s definitely pointing for the Derby and Baffert is happy with him we can try to make some sense of the Arkansas Derby and move him up in the rankings. To have a 1-5 shot this highly ranked get beat in his final Derby prep is one thing, but to fail to outduel a horse for second that you just crushed the race before is reason for concern. He ran the race he was expected to, sitting right off the flank of Caddo River and pressing him the whole way. When he pulled on even terms at the head of the stretch, everyone expected him to draw clear, but he couldn’t put Caddo River away. He did get his head in front, but let him come back to get second while the winner was blowing by both of them. So this was discouraging on all fronts. Can we chalk this performance up to him having only one easy victory around two turns and being a bit short for this race? He has trained very well so it would seem he was primed for a big effort. As I mentioned in past comments, his Thoro-Graph numbers going into the race were not very fast, especially for a horse many felt was the one to beat in the Kentucky Derby, but they were far better than the winner, so figure that one out. And on top of that he may very well lose jockey Joel Rosario, who is also the regular rider of Hot Rod Charlie.
12. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse, Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit)
Even though he didn’t change leads in the Florida Derby, which might not have been his fault, as his lead change looked to be disrupted when Known Agenda brushed with him, it looks as if he has become much more professional since his first two starts when he was extremely green making numerous mistakes. He is a very aggressive horse, coming out of the gate with his ears already pinned and looking for action. He tracked the early leader for a short while, but you could see he wanted the lead and after taking over, he turned back all challenges. I believe John Velazquez might have waited a bit too long to set him down and he was caught by surprise when Known Agenda eased out and showed up alongside him. But Soup and Sandwich kept battling on his left lead. He might have made it closer if Known Agenda wasn’t out in the middle of the track where he didn’t have to look him in the eye, because I believe this colt is a fighter. His main problem is that there are so many good horses who have the same running style and I’m not sure he can relax and settle into a comfortable stride. If he can then he will be dangerous.
13. O Besos (Gregory Foley, Orb – Snuggs and Kisses, by Soto)
He will move up once he gets in the field, but he needs several ahead of him in points to officially withdraw. If he does get in he is a very live longshot. For now, turn the clocks back to 1993. The Claiborne Farm stallion Polish Navy is sold to Japan and shortly after, his son Sea Hero wins the Kentucky Derby. Now here we are in 2021 and the Claiborne Farm stallion Orb is sold to Uruguay just weeks before his son O Besos is to run in the Kentucky Derby. Food for thought? Even recently we had the stallion New Year’s Day sold to Brazil and four months later his son Maximum Security finishes first in the Kentucky Derby. Of course none of that means anything unless you believe in karma. But in O Besos’ case, he is another of the vastly improved colts who is trending upward coming into the Kentucky Derby. His maiden and allowance sprint victories were both eye-catching performances, in which he exploded in the stretch and drew away under a hand ride, demonstrating a smooth, effortless stride. In his two-turn debut in the Risen Star Stakes, he was closer to the pace and raced a bit greenly, as he was late changing leads and ducked out sharply from a left-handed whip, but still finished a respectable fourth. In the Louisiana Derby, his make-or-break race to get in the Kentucky Derby, he raced at the back of the pack, rallied turning for home, then cut to the inside in midstretch and showed a good burst of speed in the final sixteenth to just miss second by a head. After running a pair of “6 ½” Thoro-Graph numbers, he jumped to a “2 ¾,” the fastest number in the race. Although his Brisnet number was a moderate 94, it has steadily climbed from a 76 to 82 to 88 to 91 to 94, which was only two points slower than the victorious Hot Rod Charlie, and there is no reason why it shouldn’t improve once again in the Derby.
14. Rombauer (Mike McCarthy, Twirling Candy – Cashmere, by Cowboy Cal)
Here is an early exacta bet for you. A fairly common scenario we’ve seen in the Derby in recent years has been having a favorite or near favorite racing on or just off the pace finish first and a big longshot, usually around 30-1, rallying from far back to get second. Maximum Security, the second choice, finished 1st and 65-1 shot Country House rallied from far back to finish second. Always Dreaming, the favorite, finished first and 33-1 shot Lookin At Lee rallied from far back to finish second. California Chrome, the favorite, finished first and 37-1 shot Commanding Curve rallied from far back to finish second. Barbaro, the third choice, finished first, and 30-1 shot Bluegrass Cat came from eighth early to finish second. Although he wasn’t a pace horse, you also had Orb, the second choice, finish first, and 34-1 shot Golden Soul rally from far back to finish second. Well, how about this exacta with a pace horse and a deep closer. Rock Your World is by Candy Ride…Rombauer is by a son of Candy Ride. Rock Your World’s maternal granddam is by Giant’s Causeway…Rombauer’s maternal grandsire is by Giant’s Causeway. Rombauer is inbred only to Mr. Prospector…Rock Your World is inbred only to a son of Mr. Prospector. Rock Your World made his first two career starts on grass and then won a Grade 1 stakes on dirt in his next start…Rombauer made his first two career starts on grass and then finished second in a Grade 1 stakes on dirt in his next start. With Rombauer running uncharacteristically close to the pace in the Blue Grass Stakes, it put just enough speed in him to now take far back, as is his custom, but this time be sharp enough to have a more explosive stretch kick. No charge for that historical exacta tip.
15. Helium (Mark Casse, Ironicus – Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
He’s now at Churchill Downs and Casse is starting to sharpen him up for the tough task ahead, working him five furlongs in company in :59 1/5 with jockey Julien Leparoux aboard. The Tampa Bay Derby winner broke sharply with an opening eighth in :11 4/5 and came home his last quarter in :23 4/5 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:12. This is the kind of work we needed to see with him going into the Kentucky Derby off an eight-week layoff, one start this year, and never having run farther than 1 1/16 miles. I keep mentioning those three facts because they are important, considering no horse has overcome any of those obstacles in over 100 years. He is trying to overcome all three, and if he does, don’t expect to see Derby horses in action that much in the future, as he will singlehandedly turn the Derby into a race that requires hardly any foundation and any prep races. There is no doubt he is a very talented and game horse who runs well off layoffs and has a Hall of Fame trainer, and he is in a position to rewrite the book on how to prepare a horse for the Kentucky Derby.
16. Like the King (Wesley Ward, Palace Malice – Like a Queen, by Corinthian)
This colt is actually kind of sneaky. Yes, he was beaten by 7 ¾ lengths and 12 lengths in is two dirt starts, but they were early in his career and he did finish second and third in those races. He is coming off three big efforts on Polytrack, including a victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, but also has turned in a bullet five-furlong work in :59 4/5 on dirt at Keeneland and had two more bullet works at Keeneland last fall. As for his pedigree, he has a Kentucky Derby winner (Unbridled), Preakness winner (Curlin), and Belmont winner (Palace Malice) in his first three generations and three more Belmont winners (A.P. Indy, Easy Goer, and Bet Twice) in his fourth generation female family. In his last three starts, he’s won on the lead with a slow pace; come from fourth, two lengths back; and come from eighth, 7 ½ lengths back, so we know he is versatile enough to adapt to any pace. He recently worked six furlongs in 1:16 at Keeneland on the grass in company with two other horses. With jockey Drayden Van Dyke aboard, he broke off well behind his workmates and collared them in the stretch. His next two works before the Derby will be on the main track.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Although HIDDEN STASH hasn’t given any indication he can win the Derby, he has never been off the board in seven career starts and always runs hard. He had a big problem with his lead changes, but did switch to his right lead for the first time in the Tampa Bay Derby and was narrowly beaten after running off badly before the race. In the Blue Grass, just as he switched to his right lead he bumped with Keepmeinmind, knocking him back on his left lead and that’s the way he ran the rest of the way. He was unable to quicken and just ran evenly to finish a well-beaten fourth. He is a better horse than he’s shown and just needs to put everything together.
So now that MANDALOUN opened eyes with a bullet :58 4/5 work at Churchill Downs, should we simply throw out his dismal performance in the Louisiana Derby or did he just fail to stay the 1 3/16 miles? I doubt it was the distance because he was done at the top of the stretch, so he remains another of the many mysteries going into this year’s Derby.
I am not ready to rank UAE Derby runner-up PANADOL yet until he gets on the plane and we see how he travels and how he takes to his new surroundings. Plus I have no idea how good he is other than he is a solid frontrunner who was beaten by a very classy horse at Meydan. This year in particular I’m certainly not going to throw him out.
CADDO RIVER ran a much improved race in the Arkansas Derby and showed a lot of guts outdueling Concert Tour for second, but he sure looks like a live Preakness horse to me, and I have a feeling that is where Brad Cox wants to go unless owner John Ed Anthony has Derby fever and is willing to jeopardize his chances at Pimlico.
KING FURY, who needed some ankle remodeling time in December, looked great winning the Lexington Stakes coming back off a vacation at Three Chimneys Farm, where he spent every day out in a paddock for several months wearing a Rambo (turnout) blanket, coming in for only two hours to get fed and be checked out. That no doubt helped him in many ways and he came back fresh and raring to go. Although trainer Kenny McPeek says he will run in the Derby if he gets the points, that makes no sense to me, and I will still consider him a Preakness horse until they actually enter him.
In other Preakness news, BROOKLYN STRONG, who ran a good race in the Wood Memorial, finishing a solid fifth in his 3-year-old debut, will target the second leg of the Triple Crown and may use the 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel April 24 as a prep.
600 sounds better
Anybody critical of Sadler–look at yesterday’s graded stakes race at Santa Anita—a bug boy riding the 3/5 favorite—gets into a speed battle from the OUTSIDE post, where he only needed to break clean and did not need to send hard—went 21 FLAT, 43 4/5 and was beaten by ten lengths, trainer was being “loyal” to the rider, while not getting the bug weight break–he could have had any other rider—
RYW, Known Agenda, and………..Highly Motivated are my top prospects at this point. Love Soup and Sandwich but not for the win. Glad to see O Besos made it to the party and I believe Get Her Number should make it too as I have heard that Crowded Trade is not going to the Derby. Both of these guys will be underneath on my exotics. Sainthood looks like he is making great strides and will also be someone I will use under. His work with Known Agenda looked great.
Good article over on TDN by Bill Finley about Irad Ortiz. I sure hope he stays on Known Agenda for the Derby! Awaiting your list with bated breath, Steve. And I’m a friend of yours on facebook—your grandson is so danged cute!
LOL, Thanks very much. I have more shots I’ll be posting from our trip there this past weekend.
Just to let everyone know the Rankings actually will be finished in a couple of hours and will be posted later this afternoon.
Hi Steve
I’m hoping Mandaloun makes it back, somewhere in your Derby Rankings, Week 14. In your KOTD segment, (Week 13), you mentioned his 5 furlong bullet work, going 5F, in 58.80, 1/28, over the Churchill track. This past Saturday, (4-17), Mandaloun worked another bullet, going 6F, in 1:11.40, 1/3, which should indicate he’s in top form. I drew a line though his poor performance in the Louisiana Derby, which Brad Cox has yet to explain. From my perspective, Mandaloun has one of the better pedigrees to be highly competitive going 10 furlongs. His dam side is loaded with class and stamina, IMO.
I look for this Into Mischief colt to at least hit the board to round out the superfecta.
I’m looking forward to your Derby Rankings, Week 14.
Thanks for all you do.
I love his inbreeding to my beloved His Majesty and would love to see him win, but that last race was just too bad to rank him. No Derby winner in memory has won off that bad a race.
Unless you can remember Iron Liege in 1957. 🙂
Thanks for the reply Steve.
Based on Mandaloun’s poor performance in the La. Derby, I can certainly understand your thinking. I’m hoping he can finish in the money, or hit the board to round out the Superfecta.
Maybe he’ll be this year’s surprise just for that reason. Not that rationality has anything to do with it!
This AM the talking heads at Churchill Downs for the workout show were all about Midnight Bourbon and longshots OBesos, DynamicOne and GetHerNumber. They said also tht Caddo River if he goes would be a live longshot as a leader of the pack.
The talking heads also wondered if by sending out Concert Tour in a yellow saddle cloth to the workout and stretch his fine legs that Baffert wasn’t prepped to pull off a Derby Surprise and run Concert Tour in the KD.
I was thinking the very same thing…as I was tripping on magic shrooms.
He’s not true Derby material.
Why can’t people use common sense in this world?…….The horrific school shootings can easily be stopped………just ban people under 21 from buying TRENCH COATS!…….was that so hard?
Are you that strained for attention that you feel a need to make a comment like this?
One wonder if individual ever leaves his/her house.
He was trying to apply some comic relief—
So am I .
Indeed. Why can’t people use common sense?
I won’t say what I wagered on Rock in Future 5. What I will say is, I’ll buy Steve dinner for him and his significant other … Pasta and some fine wine or whatever ! When Rock wins … 🙂
That will leave me with another ticket …
Kent Desormeaux has won three Derbys, if anyone needs a jockey.
I heard that Umberto Rispoli is available.
3 derbys…..12 steps……
Ditto Calvin Borel. In fact, Calvin won one of his Derbys for Todd Pletcher (Super Saver).
Calvin would be crowned sainthood if he wins another, and it will be huge odds. I say give the kid a shot. Old Men Rule.
“laugh all you want……but Cezanne is working like a monster”…….people made this horse a joke……..114.71?…..eased up?……
And how does Cezanne relate to this years Derby?
So we are just under two weeks before they hit the track for real. A lot could still happen between now and May 1. The weather for one. Fast track or running in the slop again? Sometimes a horse will get hurt training. Usually not serious but enough to get them scratched. Not unheard of either for a scratch on race day.
Will keep on following here and wait and see. Works, the final draw and post position. The weather that day.
My last question has nothing to do with the Derby at all so if no reply understand. Is Woodbine still synthetic or did they go back to dirt? They had a chanpion colt from Canada yesterday at Keenland, Mighty Heart, 1 eye that ended up finishing 3rd. First start this year and looked to me like he just got tired.
synthetic…..
Abel Tasman was switched from Callaghan to Bob B….and won the Kentucky Oaks—the top trainers and riders get the top horses—there’s a Cal-bred going today, Brickyard Ride—has an apprentice—in a graded stakes, doesn’t get the 7 lb bug—but trainer Craig Lewis keeps the rider—he could have Prat but rides Cedeno with no weight break–does that make sense? Every rider gets bumped, eventually….Frankel took Pincay off of Squirtle Squirt, because he wanted a New York rider for the Breeders Cup—PINCAY got bumped….SHOE didn’t ride Sunday Silence for Charlie….too old….someday Rosario will get bumped, too.
He has zero shot for Derby.
Well that’s it. With the recent announcement that Joel Rosario will ride Rock Your World, the checks are almost complete.
The only remaining check mark to add, will be the post position draw, which I’m hoping will be somewhere between 5 and 10.
Listed below are the boxes that have already been checked;
Sire: Candy Ride, sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector. This line has produced Gun Runner and Shared Belief. Check!
Dam: Charm The Maker, finished 2nd in the G1 Hollywood Starlet S., 3rd in the G1 Oak Leaf S. Check!
Dam Sire: Empire Maker, needs no introduction. He’s been more impressive as a broodmare sire than a sire. Check!
Record: Undefeated, 3 for 3, on grass and dirt. Check!
Best race to date: Wired the field in the SA Derby, setting torrid fractions in the process. Check!
Beyer Speed Figure: 100, the highest Beyer in the 2021 projected Derby field. Check!
Time Form Speed Figure: 124, highest in the field. Check!
X-Factor large-gene: Yes, a likely carrier of the gene, as was his dam, dam sire, 2nd dam and 2nd dam sire. Check!
Connections: Top rider Rosario, successful breeder (McAnally) & one of top trainers on the West Coast, (Sadler). Check!
Suffice to say RYW checks a lot of boxes, and I’ve got him at 31-1 in Pool 5, in a $100.00 win wager!
That would be a nice payday!
Hey, Bill! I’m taking a wild guess that you created those specific boxes just for the Rock. Ha ha! All points combined make for a persuasive argument in favor of the colt. However, my boxes are all performance based and are asked of all potential runners. Essential Quality gets check marks in every one! Here are some of them:
x Champion two-year-old colt
x Undefeated winner of two graded stakes at 2 (including BC Juvenile) and two graded stakes at 3, all at 8.5 or 9f
x Won graded stakes as a closer, as a presser, and vying for the early lead
x Highest Brisnet speed rating among probables (102 in Blue Grass Stakes, tied with RYW in Santa Anita Derby)
x Late Pace figure in BG Stakes was 106 (RYW had a 91 in SA Derby)
x Ran final furlong of BG Stakes in 12 ⅗ (RYW, 12 ⅘ in SA Derby)
x Speed ratings have improved with each race (after debut, after layoff)
Oh…plus a 2020 Eclipse Award winning trainer on the road to the Hall of Fame, and a rider who finished first in the 2019 Derby!
But you have RYW at 31-1, so that’s a benefit I can’t compete with! I’m left with one viable (barely) future wager: Mandaloun at 42-1. Do miracles happen? 🙂
Good afternoon EddieF
When you state, “my boxes are all performance based and are asked of all potential runners”. The inference there is the boxes that I’ve created are not performance based. How about combining the boxes you’ve created, with the ones I created, which will probably be a moot point after the KD has been run.
BTW, I was very high on Mandaloun, early on, and still believe he can make a strong showing in the Derby. I’ve got Mandaloun boxed with RYW (31-1) in my $2.00 exacta wager.
That is:
Mandaloun/RYW = $4,421.00
RYW/Mandaloun = $4,271.00
Well, my sly inference was that most of your boxes concerned pedigree and genes, both of which I know little about. Those are INSANE exacta prices! Though I have almost no hope that Mandy will win, I do think he could get a piece of the Kentucky Derby pie.
With respect to “INSANE” prices, the best case scenario for me; RYW and O Besos finish 1st and 2nd.
That is;
RYW/O Besos = $4,785.00
O Besos/RYW = $7,959.00 (I wouldn’t mind if RYW finishes 2nd) 🙂
😮
So……RYW won the santa Anita derby………Why not tell people all the horses you picked BEFORE THAT?……..how did all of those “large hearts” shrink? One was out of derby consideration because he was a spinter……..if he had a LARGE HEART,…….. why is he a sprinter?…….why not look for UNICORNS?
Fortunately, I have the ability to block you rude, disparaging comments on the HRN blog, but not on Steve Haskin’s blog.
It’s rather obvious you have some serious issues going on that need to be addressed at the professional level.
I’ll leave you with this parting thought. In the event I can locate a “UNICORN”, I’ll hop aboard and use that single horn to find a target worth penetrating. Take cover! 🙂
Agreed! Btw, my response below intended for the “resident genius”-pro vet.
The point is…….how does a heart shrink?…….why would the trainer take him off the derby trail, and say he is a sprinter…..you take it as being rude?……So, a horse won…..its the large heart gene……but the many you liked this spring ?……..
This was not to embarrass you. It was to bring up a point……So, if he loses………..did his heart shrink?…..you loved Mandaloun right?……did his breeding change?……now you do not mention him. You loved him….
BE GONE pro vet, and sin no more!
You two ! Lol!
Seems like some ask for proof of your selections often. Yes?
When Omaha Beach was a late scratch, Mike Smith bumped his way into a Derby mount, just a couple years ago…..Shoemaker rode Hill Rise in the 1964 Derby, after Don Pierce impressively won the SA Derby on him….Sadler says he has saddled more winners for Rosario than any other trainer, and it WAS Rispoli’s first Gr1 win (SA Derby)….is it fair? No….is it understandable? YES it is, you get one chance to win the roses….one.
Kevin Krigger won the SA Derby on Golden cents, and rode him in Louisville….Kevin Krigger, for Doug O’Neill….not me, if I have a Gr1 winner in the Derby I’m riding the best I can get.
O’neil believes in loyalty……..thats why he stuck with Ill have anothers rider………he did have people questioning it….
As someone who was on I’ll Have Another large I respect O’Neill’s loyalty which is why I fervently hope Rock Your World loses the Derby. A personal peeve of mine disloyal trainers and owners. A pox on RYW’s connections.
in other sports maybe…….but this sport has unwritten rules like most sports do……this is normal…..the way it is always done………
My partner that i own horses with, just last month, was mad at a ride from our jockey…he wanted him off…..i told him that this jock works with him every day, has won on him….that we are a team…….I’M SO GREAT!…….I fought for loyalty!
Guess what?…..this last race?….he picked another horse that was favored…OVER MY HORSE!………lesson learned………this is the biz……Rispoli would pick a better horse in a second……..if he could…….
This is why this move is not frowned upon
I agree that it’s understandable, but 2019 with Smith and Cutting Humor isn’t comparable to this jockey change.
1964 Pierce to Shoe—that was the Derby favorite.
So 57 years since a comparable situation. When The Beatles came to America. When “Dr. Strangelove” was released. When the Civil Rights Act became law. When Cassius Clay defeated Sonny Liston to become the heavyweight champion of the world. LOL
Highly Motivated worked 4f at Keeneland this morning in 47.20 (bullet). Crowded Trade worked 4f yesterday at Belmont in 47.55. Decision today? Tomorrow?
It was announced before he worked. HM to Derby, CT to pointed to Preakness, no Derby.
Didn’t see your post when I typed and submitted mine.
We’ve lost quite a few of the lightly raced colts (3 or 4 career races).
Apparently, the decision to train Crowded Trade for the Preakness was made yesterday.
Going back a couple of weeks and a discussion about a potential Jockey change….
JC says:
April 5, 2021 at 12:30 pm
Good Day Steve,
Awesome to see you have Rock Your World at #1 this week ! I also believe he is something special. I can’t wait to observe how he works over the next few weeks. I won’t even bet on Derby Day, as I already have a little pile of $10 Future Derby 5 #21 tickets
What are your thoughts on Sadler’s plans to keep him training in Santa Anita and then shipping him late to Kentucky? He will not have much time to feel the track there.
Also, I feel that Umberto Rispoli should keep the mount in the Derby ! He and Rock seem happy together ! Do you think Sadler will choose a more experienced and well known Jockey like Smith ?
Thanks Steve !
Reply
Steve Haskin says:
April 5, 2021 at 1:04 pm
I always like when horses ship early to get a feel of the track and get used to the new surroundigs but I have seen too many horses ship the week of the race and win so I wont make much of it either way. Many California trainers want to make sure there are no weather delays in their training. I dont know enough about Rispoli but from what I see hes a very good jockey and smart. I would keep him on.
Reply
Dewey Hebert says:
April 5, 2021 at 1:17 pm
Umberto Rispoli was one of Italy’s premier jockeys before testing the waters in the U.S. He has displayed his skills in the short time he has ridden in California. Ron Anderson the agent who has represented a host of champion jockeys, regretfully had to give up Rispoli’s book when he agreed to take on John Velasquez’ assignments. He was high on Rispoli’s riding ability and predicted a bright future.
John Sadler has used Umberto before and I’m sure he is comfortable keeping him in the saddle with Rock Your World. Most trainers are loathe to break up a winning combination.
Reply
Matthew W says:
April 5, 2021 at 1:24 pm
No way will Sadler change riders, by the way, there’s no turf racing for the next two weeks at Santa Anita, and only two racing days for the next two weeks, I heard Rispoli is going to ride at Keeneland this week….
Reply
Dewey Hebert says:
April 5, 2021 at 1:25 pm
Hmm, “loathe” may be too strong a word, shall we say “shy away from”.
Reply
JC says:
April 5, 2021 at 2:48 pm
Thank you Steve !
Also to Dewey and Matthew for your input…
Reply
Boy was I wrong, but I didn’t know Rosario was available then….Rosario v Rispoli is a no-brainer, if it’s turf thats another story, if its turf you keep Rispoli.
Umberto Rispoli tries U.S. racing with Ron Anderson as his agent. When asked by Johnny Velasquez to represent him, Anderson drops Rispoli while touting his talent. Anderson also represents Joel Rosario and when Rosario suddenly finds himself w/o a Derby mount after losing Concert Tour, Anderson gets John Sadler to bump Rispoli and put Rosario back in the saddle on RTW. What goes around, comes around.
What’s that saying? “All’s fair in love and war”.
What are you hoping to see in Steve’s week 14 article?
I want to hear more about Helium. I think his 3 lifetime efforts are incredibly impressive.
Helium is slow……..you’re welcome…….trainer runs many horses when he shouldnt…..runs his horses too much…..
They want to win and they have a big chance…..Rosario has tons more dirt racing experience, and he has ridden for those guys before—I’m sure the brothers will cut Rispoli a share, but they had the chance and they went for Rosario—perhaps his agent knew it all the time….
no way….no share….this is part of game…..there is nothing wrong with this…..
if they win the roses im certain Rispoli will get “his” share….even though they don’t owe him one they will…
I also feel bad for Rispoli… he was really elated after the Santa Anita Derby but he is working in a very competitive business. A peer with better “resume” at the Derby is taking over the job.
We also have to remember that Rosario debuted Rock Your World.
Joel Rosario could not ride RYW in his second start because the hot Jockey had the commitment with Steve Asmussen and Jackie’s Warrior in the Southwest Stakes.
Moreover, on April 3rd, the Santa Anita Derby day, Rosario, had an intense day at Keeneland. He won two(2) Grade- 1 Stakes, one Grade 2 and one Grade 3 races.
I am pretty sure that Umberto Rispoli will be getting great mounts in the future and that any trainer will be giving him the opportunity to start building Derby experience.
“Business opportunities are like buses, there’s always another one coming.”
Richard Branson.
“It’s not personal, Umberto, it’s business!” Not saying it’s never happened, but I can’t remember when the jockey of one of the likely Derby favorites was “fired” in this fashion; that is, after winning a G1 final prep. And RYW was likely to be the clear second choice.
You don’t remember the Mike Smith hate?……from people that dont know this has always been done?…..
Thanks for the reply. But could you please provide details? Year. Horse. Who replaced who.
The movie got really good after that famous quote was uttered.
It was a masterpiece from start to finish!
Agreed!
The price on RYW just dropped a couple clicks…
I beat you on that point by about 28 minutes. LOL
EQ 3-1?
RYW 9-2?
EQ is under 3-1 NOW…..
Hey Steve…..you alive ? Or did you fall off a 4 wheeler partying or got a little crazy doing somethin ? Lol …Happy two weeks to go ! Cheers.
he said he is gone maybe be up mon night prob tuesday…….
Thanks
He’s havin some fun !
BREAKING NEWS ROSARIO JUST GOT RIDE ON ROCK YOUR WORLD……..SORRY RISPOLI OUCH
Wasn’t that already a done deal ?
The Italian Kid should be on him ! They are a team.
They do what they think gives them best chance of winning. Rosario must have given RYW a brilliant ride in the 6f turf debut. 😉 Whoever was planning to bet RYW, his odds just dropped at least a point.
its never a done deal……..just think how Rispoli feels………ouch……this is done all the time….
I’m confused. You said Rispoli “just got ride on Rock”…”just think how Rispoli feels” He was already given the mount…although I not haven’t heard otherwise ?
“not haven’t heard”….oh boy… I sound Irish….Lol
This is very common in horse racing…..if you get to the top, these are the perks……
Do you feel like Rispoli should get the mount ?
one has 9 derbys……one 0?……let me think……
Rispoli has won ONE Gr1…..
Wow just read the news on this jockey change and due to the name similarities I was confused on your post and now it makes more since .. Umberto Rispoli… lost mount and that’s sad. I’m pissed.
I just watched EQ’s work and although it was the same time as Rock’s on different surfaces, I believe that EQ had to work harder and I have to say this… I don’t think he’ll get the 1 1/4 distance….Rock could have gone another lap after his work….
Hi Steve, upon further review, I think Get Her Number is sitting on a huge race. Do you have any insight on his ability to get 1 1/4 miles? Thanks.
I’m with you, Get Her Number had two terrible trips in the Rebel and Ark Derby. He’s a G-1 winner as a 2YO in a two turn race and shows 3 “different” Triple Crown Winners in his pedigree.
Last year…..i posted before the race exactly what happened…..TiZ would run 4 wide the whole way, and hang…….after the race some people were complaining…..but knowing the HORSE would get rank on the inside, it was easy to predict…..i even said “don’t complain after race, this is who the horse is……”
Now, not one person has brought this up…..
Rock your world should do the same thing…….he has never had dirt in his face. It is not a given he can get clear……he will be ridden on outside, to not get hit by dirt…
Listen …..dont complain “he was on outside the whole race”……..there is a reason i am a pro………..
It is a huge field…..his choice is send him hard, or keep him outside…………be prepared to get what you deserve…….
There you go again…..leaving us hanging after not elaborating a point: “there is a reason i am a pro….” So? What is the reason you’re “a pro”? Was it a traumatic event? I’d like to think you answered an ad that said “BE A PRO FOR JUST $25.”
The reason is implicit in the post’s context.
POINT……. who has brought this up?…..letting people know what will probably happen…….he has never been hit by dirt…….yet no one cares……this is worst race for this….you must keep him out or on lead……if its on lead, you likely have gone too fast…..have you considered the fact he will likely be wide?…….i bet now you do……i bet you didnt before……..feel free to listen to whoever you want….
I posted all week, Monomy Girl idles when she gets in front….it is WHO SHE IS……… was i trolled?…..yes……look what happened…..
Knowledge matters…..people are blaming jock….or different things……..it is who the horse is……
You misunderstood.
Pro I agree Rock should go to the front and for a few reasons, some being what you said, however I don’t believe he is clearly going for the outside … if he gets the lead early … which I believe he will he’s obviously inside … but if he’s a few deep .. post draw will effect where he runs in the pack, and what the race gives him also
. Too hard to predict with 20 horses IMO.
For some strange reason……people think you want to be speed in the Derby now…..it baffles me……it is the worst race in the world for pace horses…..go ahead get lead…..i think youre going too fast if you do…..how are you not going to be hit?….if youre top 3 or so…..it CAN happen…..if you get outside….he can be best horse, and lose because of pace too fast…10 close to pace horses?….none are gonna go?……unlikely….everyone thinking like you……
Alot can go wrong…..this is an issue
Pro, your dead wrong not wanting to be close or on the lead at the KD. You know better. RYW stride is GIGANTIC, if he does control the pace it is over and out….
Yes I agree Jeff, Derby is better for front runners historically. Think Rock can win in front … mid pack… and like Grandpa… Unbridled … closer of need be… he slaps the dirt like Unbridled did ! ( and watch Unbridled vids if you can ). the saying “he can’t run on dirt “…he’s just looking for speed. Slaps the dirt like Unbridled.
watch what happens…….
I think Rock can rate … he’s shown this on grass… he’s professional like barn notes… I even think he could close if he had to like Unbridled .. I think he has all the tools… upfront … rate mid pack … or closer … it’s in his breeding… all ends..
the point is……..he has to rate on outside…..not 5th on rail…..you would think……do we know for sure?…….no…..but he never has been hit with dirt……POINT you want to bet money on that?…….look they know this too…..he should go hard……but thats not great……going that fast…….
Why rate? Who’s can run with him early?
That’s what I was thinking. Who would be foolish enough to empty their gas tank trying to force RTW into a fast early pace? Unless someone employs the old “rabbit” tactic…. Caddo River for EQ perhaps? Hmmm!
Ain’t no way John Ed Anthony (or any owner, for that matter) would sacrifice his horse for another stable.
Ya, I know. It’s just wishful thinking on my part. For whatever reason, I haven’t been able to warm up to RTW, but, now the case for him is hard to ignore. After all, he’s makes much more sense to carry his speed 1 1/4 miles than Authentic did last year. If Authentic can do it, then surely RTW can.
You must have missed the rest of the preps and the other horses. There’s all kinds of speed in Midnight Bourbon, Soup and Sandwich, Highly Motivated, Caddo River, Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie. It took Rock the World a while to get the lead and he wasn’t racing against any other good front runners. You may not believe it, but those horses are a lot faster than any he faced in the Santa Anita Derby. He also slowed down at the end. I think a stalker or just off the pace horse will win it because the pace will be fast and contested. Even a closer could win it.
Florida Derby. Jeff Ruby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial WINNERS…..are all part of the “all others” from the final futures pool…..5-1.
I like your Wood Memorial WINNERS, obviously Todd Pletcher expected Dynamic One to win the race. This is going to be tough derby to handicap and at the same time exciting; there is no clear winner. RYW and Dynamic One, after his work yesterday, appear to be more than ready for the challenge.
I got the all others boxed with the Rock… paying around $500.
Nice work this morning by Rock ! 5F = 59.60 , 5/70 in hand ! He looks great!
The exact time as Essential Quality this morning at CD.
Obviously, this means the two will DEAD HEAT on Derby Day. Not.
DH to 5 furlongs.
I believe Santa Anita is the deeper track … deeper than Churchill. Although I’m not certain … anybody know the differences before the two tracks? Steve ?
Concert Tour not going wonder if Rosario will even get a mount he broke the maidens of 6 probable, wonder if his agent didn’t fall asleep on Hot Rod…..
Not surprised by the news. It would be contrary to Baffert’s history to have entered CT in the Derby. As for Rosario, how about Sainthood? With CT definitely out, will John Ed Anthony reconsider holding Caddo River for the Preakness?
I fancy Sainthood as my Derby longshot and would love to have Rosario in the irons even though he would bring the price down some. Come on, Ron Anderson, get it done.
The work by Dynamic One yesterday was beautiful; he likes the surface. He has an outstanding pedigree, so he may very well win the big one. I’ll read the clocker reports. I do like Sainthood, based on his pedigree, he has a chance to hit the board.
With Joel back on RTW, Umberto would be wise to pursue the mount on Sainthood. Don’t dwell on it, give Todd a call. It’s better than having no Derby mount and Sainthood does have some upside.
Looks like a great field for the Preakness. You get the Derby winner to boot
Always be wary of Bob’s other horse…I have too think his one bullet left in MS is live prospect.
Surprised regarding CT-considering how many times he’s pushed on horses unnecessarily.
I challenge you to come up with a Baffert derby horse that pooped out in the stretch of the final prep, passed by other runners.
Seriously? Stating he’s pushed horses more than once. He trains them too hard and fast works……. period!
Aren’t we talking about the Derby? I was.
I’m saying surprised CT is passing on Derby ,although it’s probably correct measure to employ.
And all I was saying is that you shouldn’t have been surprised because Baffert doesn’t send horses to the Derby that ran the way CT did in the Ark Derby.
I shouldn’t be surprised with ALOT of things he does.
Mor Spirit
Nope. Mor Spirit was not a horse that “pooped out in the stretch of the final prep, passed by other runners.” In the Santa Anita Derby, he was 4th all the way to the stretch call where he was 6 1/2 lengths behind. He finished 2nd by 6 1/4 to Exaggerator. Any others? 🙂
How about a little love for the fillies? Who’s going to win the Apple Blossom? Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver, or can Letruska somehow pull off a big upset? My vote is on the gal who beat last year’s Derby winner.
Kudos to the late great Charles Cella, for his foresight in his creation of a big pot if cash for the fillies, at a time where they can gather for such a horse race, the Apple Blossom has become America’s top older filly/mare race except for the Breeders Cup!
To the VET and everyone—IF…the main contenders all go—I think Essential and Rock will BOTH get bet down from their morning lines….and I think everyone else–Hot Rod Charlie, too—will get a good price.
probably those 123
Just watched RYW 3 races replays and extended gallop out with Jockey’s comments afterwards. This horse is a bonafide freak…Besides injury only thing that could upset the apple cart is his inexperience with racing. If he’s mostly professional on KD day, he will win. But that is the $100 question, isn’t it? Great horses in Curlin, Congaree, Point Given, Indian Charlie come to my mind when looking at the KD. RYW has a monster stride that just eats up the ground at great distances…
The question is having no 2yo bottom, will he hold up? Another non 2yo starter Concert Tour just fell out, it’s just not an easy thing, Justify was able, but he was special…
Hey, Matthew! How would you feel about RYW if he had debuted on December 31 instead of January 1?
RYW is not a freak; I can’t possibly come to that conclusion after only three races. Freak is a way over the top word for this horse.
I see him or EQ prevailing.
Came across an article that first appeared in the Louisville Courier Journal last week. It was a story on Kendrick Carmouche who will be the first black jockey riding in the Derby since Kevin Krigger in 2013. Kendrick is high on his mount, Bourbonic, and had this quote on his chances of winning…. “I’ve got the corn. I’m going to make those chickens follow me.” Priceless!
These cajuns do have a funny way of talking. LOL
That’s the best Kentucky Derby line in a generation!!!!!! So awesome!!!!!
Good luck to him and Bourbonic!
I live in New Orleans, so I’m not too far from Cajun country. Bourbonic is a closer so he’ll be following the chickens for most of the race, haha!! The Louisiana Cajuns have a whole different way of thinking; “Rajin Cajuns”.
That is funny. Wishing him the very best of luck in that race.
Trivia question for the downtime:
Essential Quality would be the seventh consecutive 2-year-old champion to run in the Kentucky Derby, breaking the record of six consecutive champs in the Derby. When did it happen first? And who were the six champs?
1974-1979
1979 Rockhill Native
1978 Spectacular Bid
1977 Affirmed
1976 Seattle Slew
1975 Honest Pleasure
1974 Foolish Pleasure
You win!
1975-1980.
OK I see you weren’t saying their Derby years you were saying 2yo years
Another easy one for you:
How many Two-year-old horses were named Horse of the Year?
How many of those 2-year-old HOY run in the Derby?
Time!
2 and 2?
No … try harder!
I know that Secretariat was the first. And I believe that he not only RAN in the Derby, but he WON the Derby. 😉
Secretariat was not the first 2-year-old to earn HOY title.
Moccasin was co-HOTY in 1965 with Roman Brother, but she was a filly and did not run in the Derby in 1966. Prior to that, all I can think of is Morvich, who won the derby undefeated and then never won another race.
Oh. Your nom de plume?
My nom de plume is Ms. Black Type. Too bad I didn’t think of it when I first started posting here!
It’s not too late. Here, at least, you can be whatever name you wish. I would recommend that, for a reasonable period, you go by “Ms. Black Type (Mary Ellen)” so that readers may adjust.
Good idea, Eddie F.!
Is it 1? Favorite Trick?
Clue, the answer starts with S.
Secretariat and Slew
One good … Seattle Slew was not HOY in 1976… it was Forego.
Slew was HOY in 1977 … but this is another question: How many Derby winners went on to earn HOY titles?
2 and 1…..one became Triple Crown winner the other became a Quarter Horse sire—i out of 2 ain’t bad!
seven (7) 2-year-old have earned HOY titles:
1997 Favorite Trick (8th in the Derby)
1972 Secretariat (TC champion)
1965 Moccasin
1952 Native Dancer (2nd in the Derby)
1907 Colin
1900 Commando
1893 Domino
Domino is the sire of Commando and Commando is he sire of Colin… an illustrious sire line indeed!
three (3) ran in the Derby: Native Dancer, Secretariat and Favorite Trick
I can’t seem to find any race video of Domino, Commando, and Colin.
😉
How could you ever forget Native Dancer?
I know. Me bad. But I have an excuse. I had a wide trip. No…I broke awkwardly.
You needed the race after a very long long layoff … (since 1952)
That’s it!
$20 exacta Rock Your World/O Besos would return around $5000…..
Yowsa!
I placed a $2.00 exacta box wager on RYW (31-1) with O Besos (50-1). If they finish 1st and 2nd, the payout would be as follows:
RYW 1st, O Besos 2nd, = $4785.00
O Besos 1st, RYW 2nd, = $7959.00
Needless to say, if they 1st and 2nd, that will be the best $4.00 dollar investment that I’ve ever made.
I think you have a good chance….
By the way, where’s Steve been? He’s MIA, haven’t seen a comment since yesterday morning. Maybe he’s already left for his extended weekend getaway? Hope you’re having a great time Steve!
I mentioned earlier I am away this weekend visiting my grandson. Just went on the computer. Next Rankings will be Tuesday
Honorary topper on Steve’s list over this weekend is, #1. GRANDPA STEVE’S BOY
Watch Rock’s three races and he’s creating sudden separation in the turf sprint, turf mile, dirt 9fur sudden separation….
That would be a great name for one of his first foals…Sudden Separation.
Joel Rosario has quietly ridden all seven of these lWest Coast colts. Four of them will likely make the KD starting gate.
HOZIER
CONCERT TOUR
DREAM SHAKE
HOT ROD CHARLIE
ROCK YOU WORLD
LAW PROFESSOR
DEFUNDED
I’m pretty sure he broke all their maidens, which is impressive. But Rosario can ride, alright!
The owner of Caddo doesnt like the spacing of the triple crown……i agree……..but it’s very strange to me to run in the last prep with only 3 weeks, with his philosophy…..i like 5 or 6 much better…….strange to have a view of giving horses time, but going with 3 weeks….
Has there been a Derby commitment?
In a quote from yesterday he said it was “doubtful” that they would enter.
Thanks. That’s what I thought.
Least this owner is more interested in the welfare of his horse,rather then having his mug on tv Derby day among the silly little hats,etc. I say kudos to him!
but if he won…..it would be 3 weeks…..that was goal
His experience with Pine Circle, Vanlandingham, Demons Begone and Prairie Bayou are like a horror movies.
But Pine Bluff was a positive note in John Ed Anthony’s TC engagements .
As they say in the South American plains, when you are bitten by a snake even a hose scares you…!
Ha ha Anacondas scare me without even biting.
I feel Hot rod should be 2nd fav…..dont be surprised…….some question distance?…..didnt he just win 1 3/16th race?……
Not saying he can’t win but I would be shocked beyond belief if he was 2nd fav. He is 4th lowest odds at best. I would have him 5th or 6th lowest on ML at best. Good luck.
I’m an expert……..i said could……be……prob 3rd………listen to the right people.
if you go on what is said on here?…..no…….
I must have cataracts. You say you said “could” and I am still reading “should” Not that it matters. You like him, that is what counts. Hot Rod Chuck beat O Besos so he must be real good. Maybe he should be second fav but he won’t be. You want better odds ayway.
no problem…….i’m just letting people know…..he will be bet more than people in here think….there seems to be a pied piper effect in here…….you would think he was 6th choice………feel free to tell me i was wrong….
He’ll be 12-1 at least!
Doubt he’ll be bet over RYW, but there’s a good possibility he could be third choice. Lotta buzz, as they say.
off topic……here is a gift…….probably the best cover of a song ever…..of one of the greatest songs ever….difficulty rating 10…..from a great now famous coverband this was reported as their first performance…i doubt that…..these people didnt know what they were about to witness……from a pizza joint………
Youtube Foxes and fossils SWEET JUDY BLUE EYES……….this is talent…….10 out of 10….difficulty 10
this was from 12 years ago
Holy s***! I’m stunned. Thanks.
your welcome!……..youtube is great…..you see great things sometimes…..thought i would share…..i bet you will go watch again,,,,,lol
the difficulty of that song is why i call it the best cover i have ever heard….they went on to be a very successful cover band….talent matters….lead singer is great
Count how many Derby winners won with 6 weeks
times changed…….look at all big races………5 to 6 weeks is what you see now…..you still fight this?……trainers are smarter now…..you just picked a horse that has 3 starts……you are adapting….
Time off is GREAT …….for the horse
Wow…wonderful flashback to wonderful times indeed. The patrons of that pizza place in Smyrna, GA, witnessed something special that night… they sure were the happiest pizza customers in history…!
Random thought: Can you imagine what past performances looked like in ancient Rome?
you didn’t need it Rome
always won
Ha! Until they didn’t.
lol !
Ben Hur was the leading jockey.
I was thinking more along the lines of Roman numerals. But you are absolutely correct about Bennie. 🙂
i use the socratic method…..of handicapping!
You don’t have to imagine it’s all there on terra sigillata.
Why do I get the feeling that this Derby is falling apart? We still have 16 days to post time. Will we even have a full field of 20 for the race? May the “racing gods” look kindly on this group of 3 yos and keep them hale and hearty.
In contrast, the Oaks field is overloaded with ‘star power.’ Brimming full of quality.
At this rate, a horse with 2 points might get in.
That made me giggle, but even worse, you may be right.
dont worry……..no reason to see defections…..if they got hurt in race you usually see it days after……works are not that much
Sir Gaylord’s crew might conclude differently
Concert Tour 50/50 for Derby per Baffert. Will have to work really well next week to run.
Thanks for the update Lynda. I got the feeling that Concert Tour will need a vacation …
And perhaps a few others. Personally, I would like to see a less than full field. (Less fun for the bettors — at least those who win, that is!) More fairly run race. You get a deserving winner.
CDI can manage to limit the Oaks field.
I agree Mary… 20 horses is bumper cars for horses not on the lead or are not deep closers… smaller fields produce the horse that should have won….. well at least most of the time.
News flash: Panadol can’t make the Derby. His flight got canceled!
All for the best. Did you know that Panadol is a pain reliever?
I laughed, but when I googled it discovered you are right. Keep it up, Eddie!
the bob haters will say he abuses it,….
Yes .. I knew it. Did not mention it due to disagreement in Publicity fees …
In Derby Rankings: Week 13, Rombauer is ranked at #14. Obviously, with the recent announcement that he will skip the Derby, Steve will need to replace Rombauer with another contender on his Week 14, Derby Rankings. Mandaloun last appeared at #5, on Week 9, but after finishing a disappointing 6th in the Louisiana Derby, he was dropped out of the top 16 Rankings. I drew a line through his lack of effort in the La. Derby, which was not the type of performance he displayed in his Risen Star win. On 4-10, he worked a bullet 5F, in 58.80, 1/28, over the Churchill Downs surface, the track where he recorded his 2nd win, going 7F, in 1:23 flat. That said, don’t be surprised if Mandaloun re-appears, somewhere in Derby Rankings: Week 14.
This Juddmonte Farms Inc. homebred colt has a very impressive pedigree, with the personification of class and stamina on his dam side, IMO.
Rombauer not going. Instead going in Preakness, where his expenses are paid by winning the El Camino Real……helps get O Besos closer to the Derby, O Besos and Hidden Stash will be my Derby closers, along with Known Agenda….maybe a five horse tri box for me this year, $60 for a $1 five horse tri box….Rock, Hidden, Essential, O Besos, Known Agenda—-that leaves out Hot Rod Charlie, back to the drawing board! The more I think about it the more it looks to me either: Rock wires the field, with closers coming in behind him or….Closers come in, after Rock does the wet work and the pace falters late……In all three of his races Rock has shown the ability to quickly separate from the field, whether sprint, turf or dirt…..
As i said…….Mandaloun DOES have an excuse……his lead was messed up, but he moved going into 1st turn very very hard…..he ran off…..horse got mad when jock took back……went all the way almost to lead in 1 pole
But im not betting him…
We all profess a natural fascination for underdogs becoming heroes. Horses who beat the odds in spite of not having impeccable bloodlines, nobility of connections or the look of beaters.
Think of horses like Sir Barton, Seabiscuit, Northern Dancer, Cañonero II, John Henry, Seattle Slew, Sunday Silence, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Mine that Bird, Invasor and California Chrome. They conquered rivals who were deemed more deserving and featured captivating stories that enticed legions of followers. Their sheer willpower and indomitable heart earned them a place in the golden pages of History.
With the majority of the 2021 Derby entrants donning elite families and leading connections only a handful of participants resembles the character of underdogs.
Perhaps the likes of Medina Spirit, Super Stock, Rombauer, Helium and Brooklyn Strong could be considered overachievers; they hold humble birth certificates, but you will see them always striving to make their way to the top … it is a tall order indeed but the harder the challenge, the sweeter the success.
I love those kinds of horses because they give license to everyone to dream big. Big hopes are not the exclusive right of the blue blooded.
There is a special feeling when an underdog wins and proves that he belongs … much more so if you bet on him.
Well written, Nelson. I, like many other punters, share the sentiment of rooting for the underdog(s). It’s more of a thrill when a horse held in low esteem exceeds his expectations with a win. Goosebumps emerge.
I will be including Super Stock, Helium and Sainthood in my exotics. I’ll be using Essential Quality as my key horse as well as a couple more runners who have a legit shot to win (still searching for those two).
Thanks Dewey… I appreciate your reply.
I am also contemplating Essential Quality as the key horse and using at least seven (7) other contenders in the exotics (i.e. Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Medina Spirit, Super Stock, Helium, Bourbonic and Dynamic One)
Super Stock and Helium are great selections… they both tick off the boxes of winning their last races (Stakes) and having very accomplished trainers. Super Stock is spurred by the whole Asmussen family and that is a tremendous inspiration.
Not sure if I can include Sainthood as I am using the other three Pletcher horses at the bottom; but the son of Mshawish could be in the mix especially with a flawless trip… everyone will be talking about his incredible second place in the Jeff Ruby for sure.
We will better equipped to handicap the Derby after the draw though… and three more of Steve’s rankings/updates to exchange our views here.
*Two more Rankings and perhaps one final column with Steve’s recommendations perhaps.
Hey, Nelson, Apparently, we both are giving Essential Quality serious consideration for the win. I feel as though he’s the real deal but I just wish Steve hadn’t brought up that paddling habit he has with his stride (that’s really the only concern I have about him). As long as EQ gets a clean start, I think he’ll assume a stalking position just behind the leaders and will be able to use his tactical speed to assume command in the stretch. (well, that’s the plan, anyway. LOL)
As for Sainthood, I just got a hunch that this horse is coming up to a good effort. With a clean trip in the Jeff Ruby, he would have won. He certainly finished very strong. I wonder who Todd will give the mount to? Gerardo Corrales had the ride in the Jeff Ruby and he’s a young rider with a bright future, but maybe Pletcher would prefer someone with more experience. I think Tyler Gaffalione is available and would be a good pick up as he’s won riding titles at Churchill.
Now, in regard of the horses coming out of the Wood, I’m not too keen on any of them except maybe Dynamic One. That track was deep and tiring and as a fan of Prevalence, I was deeply disappointed that he wasn’t able to handle the track. The Churchill surface on Derby day will be significantly different than Aqueduct. I just can’t get a clean measure of what transpired in the Wood because of the condition of the track. So, I’m looking elsewhere for 2 more win contenders. With limited funds, my bets will key EQ +5 in the exotics.
Can’t wait for the Derby Draw (Wed. 4/28?).
Tuesday, I believe. I’m in the EQ corner, too. In my estimation, he and Known Agenda check all the boxes. Literally. I have boxes for the Derby.
Eddie, I’m not surprised you’re on Essential Quality as I perceive you to be a fine judge of good horseflesh. Curious to see who will end up as the betting choice in the Derby? It looks to be between Rock Your World and EQ.
I’m taking a hard look at Known Agenda and reviewing all the videos of the key preps to see what I might have missed. I’m not only looking at the performances of the prep winners but I’m trying to see what happened behind them and size up the strength of the competition.
Sign of the times…. I never used to work this hard trying to handicap the Derby.
Very good points Dewey.
Essential Quality is one who is above all excuses. Yes … he is paddling but I remember how one of the worst paddlers in history, Canonero II, made that “defect” irrelevant. Of course, for many people it is a ticking bomb on the wellbeing of the champ but, on the other hand, he is about to make it… he is already there unlike so many other horses with “perfect mechanics”.
A 2-year-old champion who is making the Derby field still undefeated. These are successful qualities from historical perspective and from basic handicapping as well… and not even mentioning connections and bloodline. Anyways, I do not need to convince you about the merits of the Champ as you are already a believer…
Tyler Gaffalione is a good one for Sainthood. He is as effective as Irad Ortiz when given the opportunities.
Regarding the Wood Memorial I got the hunch that it was better race than people give credit for. Speed figures are misleading when the track bias is so out of whack. For instance, Weyburn and Crowded Trade in the Wood were at least 10 points below w.r.t. to their Gotham’s figures.
To me, the Wood Memorial was a great prep race for the Derby just because was run on a very tiring track…
Dr. Fager was very straight in his front ankles as well as having two club feet. Did these conformation faults stop him? Most racehorses can be faulted with conformation defects, the big concern is whether they can run.
Essential Quality seems to be doing quite well. Lol.
I never realized that about Dr. Fager. Thanks for pointing that out, Davids. You’re right, after all this ain’t no beauty pageant, it’s a horse race. What’s a little padding among winners. Go get ’em EQ.
Thank you, Nelson. I had forgot about Canonero II with his paddling stride. One of the best Derby underdog stories ever. A lot of fans warmed up to Canonero II after the Derby knowing what he went through just to get to the starting gate. Of course, Steve did a wonderful job in recounting Canonero’s story. My mind is now more at ease with EQ. Thanks.
I get your point on the Wood Memorial. The track potentially could exhibit a horse’s conditioning much like the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga. Works are usually slower on the Oklahoma than they are on Saratoga’s main track. Maybe I was expecting too much from Prevalence thus my evaluation of the race was clouded by my prejudice? Funny thing is, I’m not much of a speed figure guy anyway. Now my head is starting to spin. LOL
In any event, I’ll have at least one, maybe two Pletcher horses on my tickets.
Looking forward to Steve’s wagering recommendations. He’s on a roll this year highlighted by Wegman winning the Gotham.
Wegman? Weyburn. More coffee, please. LOL
Very nice post, Nelson. I feel the same way. It takes the sting out of my betting failure when one of those types wins the Derby. There’s often overlap, but I also look at auction prices. It’s easy to root for a $35k purchase against million dollar horses.
Thanks Eddie.
I remember reading how Seattle Slew was snubbed by the Turf Aristocracy; even after all his feats at the track and he was embarking in his career as a sire, he still was an “underdog”.
Those are fascinating stories … no wonder some of the greatest movies are about underdogs…!
Exactly! Mine That Bird had a movie. I doubt that American Pharoah will have one.
Seabiscuit was not bad either !
Seattle Slew’s initial stud fee was $150,000, quickly reaching $800,000 within a few years. Queen Elizabeth 11 visited Spendthrift Farm in 1984 to view Seattle Slew, among others.
Smarty Jones needs a movie.
Hello Steve, here’s my Elite 8 for the KY Derby
1- Known Agenda – FLA Derby winner is in top form and poised to take another step forward in the big win one at a price.
2- Essential Quality- Undefeated deserving KY Derby Favorite.
3- Rock Your World – Certainly belongs and we now know he is good on dirt.
4- Dynamic One – a Pletcher bomb with a great pedigree flying under the radar.
5- O Besos – a bomb of a closer in good form
6- Hot Rod Charlie – I don’t see him winning but he is tactical and consistent
7- Sainthood- impressive re- rally in the Jeff Ruby. Tactical and lightly raced.
8- Helium – Derby wildcard with J.Leparoux aboard.
I will only use the top 3 in my P4 and P5. Hoping KA or RYW wins because EQ will probably be and underlay at 5-2 in a 20 horse field.
Yes Todd Pletcher mentioned in an interview today that Dynamic One was under the radar. He talked a little more about Dynamic One than the other three, it was interesting.
According to HRN this morning, Panadol and Rombauer have decided to skip the derby….which puts Hidden Stash and Dream Shake in the top 20.
And Caddo River is “doubtful”.
If Caddo River skips the Derby then there is room for Get Her Number or King Fury
Music to my ears because I’m hoping King Fury gets in!
King Fury has some impressive speed numbers.
Thanks for the update Bruce…O Besos is rounding up the field with Get Her Number and King Fury Also Eligible
Get Her Number appears to have an excellent preparation for the Preakness Stakes. O Besos would be a fun bet should he make the Derby field.
Going over the PPs for the top 28 in points (and more specifically, the top 20), it’s staggering to see how many of these 3yos have substandard speed figs (the vast majority!) and how few of them have more than one graded stakes win (just Essential Quality with 4, and Concert Tour with 2). Could be the least impressive field in many years. EQ, at least on paper, is the only one that would look good no matter what year it was.
I agree 100% Eddie with what your saying, buts its the unknow factor this year…intriguing factor…we may have a lightly raced superstar? Or we may a flop race ? I’m betting on former.
Unknown factor indeed. We surely will be seeing the most 3- and 4-race horses ever in a Ky Derby.
Yes, I agree and someone out there is already digging these stats up… and thank you in advance for doin this ! Lol
Ha! Looks like it will be at least 6 of that type.
Yes, I agree and someone out there is already digging these stats up… and thank you in advance for doin this ! Lol
Panadol is intriquing. He’s got Buckpasser on both sides of his pedigree and he might be able to wire this field, ala Spend a Buck. He’s another one with only three races
Yup. And another of which we have little idea of how good he is (as Steve keeps telling us…LOL). I mentioned earlier that Panadol’s fractions were relatively slow (800 meters, for example, is nearly equivalent to 1/2 mile). But then commenter Point Unforgiven said that the Meydan timer doesn’t have a run-up. Even so, I don’t think it’s a certainty he’ll be a pace factor.
He might not even show up
In that case, he definitely won’t be a pace factor.
Just glanced around the net for latest news on Rock. There seams to be a lot of “non believers” still with Rock. And many of these handicappers are saying his last 1/4 was slower than some of the top contenders. But to set the fractions that he did and still come home like he did, I don’t see an issue and the gallop outs…. And many handicappers are saying because he came home a little slower than a few….he probably cant get 1 1/4….. this is some funny S…t ! I can understand while they are saying this ….but have they not studied him ?
With respect, keep in mind the long stretch at Churchill Downs. I certainly can understand why folks feel that way.
This Derby in my opinion is a crapshoot.
Off of 1 stellar performance I wouldn’t personally put a lot of money on him. On paper he and Essential Quality appear to be the standouts but I believe this year we may all be in for a shocker.
I know where your coming from, but I believe what I see in a horse …works and after the works, gallop outs and barn shots … and trying to see him or her for who they are would be easier in person but that ain’t happenin.. I think Rock is special and no distance will stop him. The longer the better !
I’d would have like to see Rock ship out to Churchill right off to finish his training and get a feel for the track … especially with his background on turf . BUT is Churchill dirt more like turf than Santa Anita dirt ? Can anyone comment on this ? Steve ? Churchill surface on dirt is lighter than Santa Anita which points to Churchill being more like turf for the “turf horse”.????
AND IF IT RAINS ???? Lol … better turf background !
Churchill Downs has become famous for being “turfer friendly”. Animal Kingdom, Wise Dan, and Einstein were just a few primarily turf/synthetic horses with major success over the Churchill dirt.
When a horse wires a field, and yet their come home time is SLOW—that horse was able to buck the race flow, and actually ran big–slower pace means faster come home times and that’s a front runner’s race flow, when the late fractions are slow, THAT’S a closer’s race flow–which is why I like Rock Your World and Rombauer—Rock won despite slowing down late, and Rombauer came home well into softer fractions, I like a horse (or two) that can buck race flow.
Love me some RYW. My derby horse. No surface or distance will be an issue. Hope he his decent odds!
I sure have….he is a stand-out. He won that race so easy, was laughable. Hope he stays happy and healthy and makes the gate. …definitely is a player….but I love the Candy Rides…follow them all, so I am biased. lol
I hope you are right! What a story, McAnally gets the one session with Candy Ride and with a horse that he bred several dams back, I think ….I saw him up close he looked like a man amoung boys—in the walking ring!
Am jealous you saw him in person Mathew W ! lol I wish. ~~~
I think he gets one a year to him, but not sure. But yeah, Debora bred the mare line back to Olympic Charmer (3rd dam) ? I think….looked it up awhile ago.
Love the Candy Rides.
How can you not!! right? 🙂 Have you seen his Pacific Classic where he beat Meg. D’oro….came around him like he was tied to a post. ….great race.
Steve, how much of an advantage/disadvantage would you say it is for jockeys who ride regularly at Churchill Downs while conversely, for jockeys who have never ridden at Churchill Downs, when it it comes to the Kentucky Derby?
Has Umberto Rispoli even risen at Churchill Downs?
The answer has been solved.
Like Rock Your World at #1. Essential Quality I would still keep at #2, Known Agenda #3, Hot Rod Charlie #4 (like my friend Dave-100 Lengths) and then Bourbonic #5 and Super Stock in #6. I like Bourbonic. Concert Tour did not impress last time out, I don’t think you can count him out either. I would have him as #7. This is a Derby that has more than a few possible winners. It is going to be exciting even though my favorite Greatest Honour is out. But I think you made a great case Steve for RYW to be considered the front runner.
Rock to the front! Agree – Send him !
The following are the top 21 horses in the 2021 Derby Standings with their most probable Jockeys for the big day.
1 Essential Quality140 Luis Saez
2 Hot Rod Charlie 110 Flavien Prat
3 Super Stock 109 Ricardo Santana Jr.
4 Like the King 104 Drayden Van Dyke
5 Known Agenda 102 Irad Ortiz Jr.
6 Rock Your World 100 Umberto Rispoli
7 Bourbonic 100 Kendrick Carmouche
8 Medina Spirit 74 John Velazquez*
9 Concert Tour 70 Joel Rosario
10 Midnight Bourbon66 Mike Smith
11 Mandaloun 52 Florent Geroux*
12 Caddo River 50 Florent Geroux*
13 Highly Motivated50 Javier Castellano
14 Helium 50 TBA
15 Panadol 40 MICKAEL BARZALONA
16Soup and Sandwich40 John Velazquez*
17 Dynamic One 40 Jose Ortiz
18 Sainthood 40 TBA
19 Rombauer 34 TBA
20 Proxy 36 John Velazquez*
21 Hidden Stash 32 Rafael Bejarano
From a first look it seems like John Velazquez and Florent Geroux have to make their minds and that Helium, Sainthood and Rombauer are looking for riding partners.
Grateful to learn any update or confirmation on this line up… thks!
I missed Helium will be ridden by Julien Leparoux … so only Sainthood and Rombauer will be needing riders.
and of course Soup and Sandwich and Caddo River will be free if Velazquez and Geroux commit to Medina Spirit and Mandaloun respectively…
Velazquez has already committed to Medina Spirit
Thanks Steve ! That means something indeed.
Is two-time Derby winner Mario Gutierrez still getting top mounts? I know he’s ridden Hockey Dad, but I can’t recall him winning a big race in a long time.
he’s having a good year so far….I like him, he gets horses to relax early….gets the Reddam mounts….
After his two Derby wins, all Mario needed was a good agent to move him forward. I don’t know who his agent is now, but I think he could be doing a better job for his client. JMO
Maybe if Concert Tour does not enter they can get Rosario for Rombauer!
Thank you, Nelson…informative.
Is it possible you can rank by the a horses top time form rating?
Be interesting to see that…
Thanks Jeff !
Unfortunately I do not have access to the Time Form data.
Google this: TimeformUS Speed Figures for the Journey 2021 Triple Crown Complete through all Prep Races.
Velazquez is riding Medina Spirit. Prat was offered Soup and Sandwich who needs a rider. Proxy not running
Yes Steve Proxy is not in… somehow he slipped in the copy and paste before Hidden Stash.
Looks like there will be a jockey getting his 1st Derby win this year. Of the listed riders, only John Velazquez, Mike Smith, Joel Rosario and Flavien Prat have won the Kentucky Derby. Active/riders who have previously won the Derby but do not have a Derby mount yet are HOF riders Calvin Borel and Edgar Prado. These two, sadly, are well past their peak. Did I miss anyone?
Victor Espinoza, Kent Desormeaux, Mario Gutierrez
Holy Senior Moment! My face is red with embarrassment. To add salt to my wound, these jockeys have won the Derby multiple times. Good catch, Nelson. I should have wiped off the dust from my jockey card collection to research this in more depth. LOL
Win or lose, it would make me very happy to see Luis Saez get retribution for his Derby DQ. He has a very solid mount with ES and is riding in good form.
Tyler Gaffalione will ride Soup and Sandwich.
Steve – Still with you 100% on Rock Your World. Like the immortal “Doc”, his ability to dominate on turf and dirt is a clear indication of his tremendous flexibility, which, along with his speed, will hold him in good stead for the derby turmoil. “Family of beasts”, indeed! Glad to see Hot Rod Charlie climbing up your rankings. In fact, I would have him at #4. Best, Dave
100 Lengths is 100 percent. Love it. Look, it’s a shot, and we really dont know a lot about him, but I try to put things in proper perspective in next week’s Rankings.
Hi Steve
I can fully understand why Dynamic One continues to move up on your Derby Rankings, this week landing at #4.
The tail-female side of his pedigree is nothing short of amazing, with the Ogden Phipps Stable influence stamped all over it.
Dynamic One’s 2nd dam, Storm Flag Flying, won the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies, the G1, 10F Personal Ensign and was 2nd in G1 BC Distaff and Ogden Phipps H. His 3rd dam, My Flag, won the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies, the G1, 10F American Oaks, the G1 Ashland, the G1 Gazelle Stakes and was 3rd against the boys in the Belmont Stakes. My Flag’s sire, Easy Goer needs no introduction. Personal Ensign and Private account, appearing in the 4th and 5th generation reflected the breeding genius of Ogden “Denny” Phipps, IMO.
Dynamic One will be a must include in a few of my supers.
I went into detail on his pedigree several weeks back and will do so again next week when I devote a good deal of the Rankings to pedigree
Thanks for the reply Steve.
I’ll be looking forward to next week’s Rankings, and your analysis on their respective pedigrees.
Since finishing a disappointing 6th in the Louisiana Derby, Mandaloun has pretty much dropped off the radar. However, his pedigree reflects an abundance of class and stamina influence, especially on the dam side, IMO. I continue to believe he’ll be a major player in this year’s Derby. It will interesting to read what you have to say about this Juddemonte Farms, Inc. homebred, in your Derby Rankings: Week 14.
That Union Rags/Smart Strike cross is producing some nice foals.
Bill, Dynamic One is my No. 1 horse; his pedigree is spectacular. I’ve been following him since his first maiden race.
Yes indeed Mary, with respect to class and stamina, it doesn’t get much better than Dynamic One’s tail-female side.
He could make a big close on the leaders in the deep stretch. His Derby odds should be enticing.
Good luck if you bet him to win.
Interesting both Smith and Pratt make KD mount moves within the same time window here… and also that Pratt leaves Dream Shake behind who is a talented colt that could ultimately find his way to the starting gate himself. These final Derby trail details and variables always stack up as fascinating and sometimes figure profitable in the Derby exotics.
Steve, as always, greatly enjoyed your weekly insights. You paint quite a picture with your words! Being a big Travel Column fan, I wondered if you intend to let us in on the Oaks picture through your eyes? Hope so! Pass the Champagne also intrigues me. We all appreciate you Steve!
Thank you John. I was hoping to get PPs on the Oaks fillies but nothing yet. I really havent been following them close enough to break down the race, which is so wide open. If I get PPs I will do so
Steve, you wrote that Panadol is “a solid frontrunner.” But his fractions were 24.81, 48.13, and 1:12.25 in the UAE Derby and 25.49, 49.79, and 1:14.55 in the Al Bastakiya. If he’s in the KD, he may not be an early pace contender. At this very early stage, which runners do you think will be contending for the early lead?
concert tour will lead to with Panadol attempting to lead or prob duel if something happens to concert tour at the start or he does not come over.
He is a solid frontrunner, and fractions there mean little. The race is run in meters. I have no idea whatsoever if he has the speed to set the pace here but as of now over there he is a solid frontrunner. I also have no idea who will set the pace. Caddo River is the likely one if he runs or if Concert Tour runs they will let him go. All the other frontrunners in the preps are not true frontrunners. If no one wants the lead watch for Midnight Bourbon go for it and try to lull them to sleep. It also will depend on post positions and who draws the inside.
Thanks, Steve. Yes, those fractions I gave are for distances in meters. But, for example, the 48.13 fraction is at a distance of 800 meters. That is the equivalent of .497 miles. For all intents and purposes, they are the same. Both CR and CT seem to be horses that need the lead. It should be quite a duel. If they’re entered.
Where does one find the fractions for Meydan? I’ve never been able to find them. BTW, there’s no run-up timer there so opening fractions maybe a half second slower than it otherwise would be.
Thanks. I wasn’t aware that the times at Meydan don’t have a run-up. That’s helpful. You can find the Meydan info here:
dubairacingclub[dot]com/race/racing-info/trakus-chart
Thanks so much, Eddie! Every once in awhile you hear the track announcer there call out the time for the opening 400 meters, so figured they had clockings for the other fractions as well.
My pleasure! Yeah, I’ve heard the first fraction on broadcasts, but not the subsequent fractions. Odd.
O Besos Watch- Brown will decide after their workouts this weekend which one will run in the Kentucky Derby- Highly Motivated or Crowded Trade. Only one will run in the Derby. Two more to go for O Besos. Most likely Highly Motivated runs in the Derby and Crowded Trade in the Preakness but it could be reversed possibly.
this horse is quickly turned to the fan favorite, the “Patch” of the race..hope he gets in, he might be third choice in the Oaks derby doubles and early wagering! like PAtch was.. fun story looking better for him
Steve, your constant enthusiasm makes the Derby Trail so much more than simply dry racing prep reporting leading towards a ‘lucky dip’ prize on the first Saturday in May. Sometimes, the praise awarded to this or that colt seems way over the top but entertaining none the less. In all honesty, for me the only colt that appears certain to fill a place, if not to win, is Essential Qualify.
There are quite a few interesting, talented colts but they lack ‘certainty.’ They could quite easily win but then again, they may never threaten at all. Who knows? The final week before the race, along with post positions, makes for an easier decision. Losing Greatest Honour was a real pity as Churchill Downs appeared to be ideal for that colt’s attributes. I was never keen on Life Is Good.
Hard to believe that within 3 weeks everything will be settled and the Derby Rankings will be in hiatus for another year. Thanks again, Steve, for your tireless work.
Thank you David. Me way over the top? LOL
Ha ha All fun and games as we head to the Twin Spires. Please ‘racing gods’ no rain.
I’ll key Pletcher’s Sainthood, hope to hit a big exacta and/or trifecta.
that you certainly will as a key horse.
Go for it!
Super Stock earned a 97 Brisnet speed rating. Not bad.
Have they adjusted his Beyer yet?
The Beyer Speed Figure for Super Stock was 92
I haven’t seen a new number, but I’m not really looking for it.
So I looked. :–) DRF Derby page still has 92 Beyer.
Fun Exactas
A neat combo: Midnight Bourbon/Bourbonic
The anatomy of greys: Essential Quality/Soup and Sandwich
The Street Sense Stakes finish: King Fury/Super Stock
My dad can beat your dad: Concert Tour/O Besos
Very clever Eddie! Here’s another one…for the car buffs out there: Hot Rod Charlie/Super Stock
Nice!
This is as good a way to bet this Derby as any
Well this and birth dates always work well 🙂 Always play my BD on Breeders Cup and Derby day because you just never know what might happen.
Super Stock is the only “Ginza”(alliteration) running. Cali Chrome, Street Sense, Super Saver, Seattle Slew, Big Brown
Commanding Curve ran 2nd to California Chrome, also Code of Honor was 2nd to Country House. Both were well paying exactas.
We’ll find out soon enough!
RYW/CT
I have nothing against Helium, Rock Your World, or Soup and Sandwich, but I don’t want them to win the Kentucky Derby. If they do, the Derby trail will become meaningless.
Someday Silent
If in fact Rock Your World wins the Kentucky Derby, why (in your opinion) will the Derby trail become meaningless?
Maybe because they only did 1 “trail” race? Most of the field is NW 3…only open condition horse is E.Q.
Sadly just a sign of the times, I guess. To me tho, this is the most interesting Derby I have seen for awhile, and I will take it! Good luck to all who play, and thanks so much Steve!! …for doing the Derby rankings every week.
Like how it became meaningless after Big Brown, Animal Kingdom, Always Dreaming, JUSTIFY, and Maximum Security (Yes, MaxSec!) won the Derby?
i have been preaching that for years but i surrender to the times
All the horses I mentioned above won a final prep. I don’t have any problem with that. Times change.
“When times are gone they’re not old, they’re dead! There aren’t any times but new times!”
–“The Magnificent Ambersons” by Booth Tarkington
I sure dont agree with that. Its always good to have a memory bank from which to withdraw when we need to.
I like the challenge.
Me too, but this one is interesting tho, no?
Off the subject of horse racing for a moment.
I’m watching the SD Padres/Pittsburgh Pirates game, which could get ugly, before it’s over. Pittsburg pitchers have a history of coming high and inside, with their pitches, to intimidate opposing batters. In the first inning, the Padres first batter sent a pitch over the wall, to take an early 1-0 lead. Soon after, the Pirates pitcher plunked a Padres batter on the helmet.
The following inning, the Padres pitcher retaliated, hitting a Pirates batter on the ankle. I expect more of the same before this game is over. Currently, the Pirates are leading the Padres 4-3.
It’s now in the top for the 4th inning, a Pirates pitcher just hit another batter, to load the bases.
Expect the Padres pitchers to retaliate in short order.
He retaliated by hitting the batter on the ANKLE? That’s weird.
It doesn’t matter where the Pirates batter was hit, the fact is, the Padres pitcher retaliated. More to come, stay tuned EddidF.
Well it didn’t take long, Padres pitcher, Crismatt just plunked the Pirates batter on the helmet. More to come.
A pitcher typically hits a batter on the ankle or foot when a breaking ball gets away. Retaliation is usually (always?) in the form of a heater!
The Pirates batter that was plunked in the helmet, was a high and tight fastball, (not a breaking ball).
where are the umpires?
Good question Steve.
Padres batter, Mateo, just got hit again, (2nd time), it’s now top of the 8th.
ATTN: EddieF
The Padres pitcher (Williams) just nailed the Pirates batter squarely in the back with a fast ball. The umpires finally issued a warning.
Crazy! I’m going to watch SportsCenter tonight!
Watch it on Jomboy Media tomorrow.
I do wish that Rock Your World had started last year. I was very interested in the colt, as his full sister She’s Our Charm was one of my favorites, I went out to the track just to see her work, and to see her run, and when Rock debuted I made note of his ample size….I gave him little chance to win the SA Derby, but when I saw him up close he was coming out of his skin, and he looked like an older horse, so….he is the wild card this year, the one to watch closely….am counting on you, Steve, and the VET— to watch Rock closely for me!
I wish he had more starts, too. Thats why he has to be a freak and that’s what I’m hoping. If he’s not ready to win the Derby he looks like a perfect Belmont horse.
I am thinking that if RYW wins the derby, he has a high probability in winning the Triple Crown….
I find him fairly comparable to Money Moves, another son of Candy Ride, who was my pick in last yrs. Derby. Only real difference is that Money Moves had a long gap between his 2nd and last start leading up to the Derby. Actually I was higher on Money Moves than I am on Rock Your World. Pletcher, prior to Derby, had concern that Money Moves needed more seasoning. Guess he was right but M. Moves did experience trouble during the running.
Steve we are old school but this is a new era. It would seem so far so good. See how he trains and then gets moved east. Weather here has been up and down so probably later then sooner. Got to check the pedigree but does he possibly carry that x factor? It can play a part even though not always.
Please allow me to chime in for a moment.
Per Laurie Ross, lead pedigree analyst on HRN, “Rock Your World likely carries the X-Factor large-heart gene”. More than likely, his dam Charm The Maker, received the gene from her sire, Empire Maker. His dam, Toussaud, follows the zig-zag pattern back to El Gran Senor, S– Appeal, Buckpasser, Busanda and on to War Admiral, one of the original modern carriers of the large-heart gene. In addition, his 2nd dam Charm The Giant was a likely carrier of the gene. He sire Giant’s Causeway carried the gene.
Steve did Doug decide on Prat, for Hot Rod? Or did Rosario opt for Concert Tour?
It’s a long story. All about time limits given. O’Neill needed a commitment immediately because Prat had another offer. Rosario’s agent needed a day or two to see whats up with Concert Tour. He likely would have gone to Charlie, but O’Neill didnt want to wait the extra day and signed up Prat who had just worked the horse.
Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie have two year old bottom and two strong starts in preparation for their Derby runs…you can say the same for Rombauer, who like Hot Rod was steered away from Life is Good— I can’t emphasize enough about how Rombauer changed style to become a stalker in the Bluegrass, and with a possible pace battle he could find things more to his favor in Louisville….much more…..
I stressed that point in my comment. Could be very important in the exotics. With so many lightly raced horses wth no bottom or experience this might be the year to do a BC Juvenile 1,2,5 finish trifecta.
I heard that Sadler was also avoiding Baffert’s dirt stars by running Rock Your World on grass earlier… seems like his strategy paid out… !
I am with you Mathhew about Rombauer showing versatility when stalking in a pace-less race. His dad Twirling Candy was very resourceful as well. The son of Candy Ride still holds the track record for the 7F on dirt (in winning the G1 Malibu S) and he lost the Pacific Classic by a head in a new track record for the 10 Furlongs.
Rombauer will be one of the very plausible long shots in the Derby specially if he can deploy his natural running style as you said.
In some ways think the turf is kinder on them. Then again depends on the turf. Those first races help build confidence and teach as well for the jockey and trainer.
Yes Laura… I can say from personal experience (as a Juvenile Track & Field athlete many moons ago) that training on grass carried a lot of benefits especially coming off an injury. Running on softer surfaces helps training smaller muscles that are less used on harder surfaces. There are even mental benefits…
But it had to be even green surfaces. I loved to warm up and cooling down on grass.
I guess it could be the same for Thoroughbred Athletes.
Yes, Sadler said his plan…after the maiden win was the turf stakes and then the SA Derby…it wasn’t Derby fever they PLANNED it that way….of all the horsez this year Rock is the one who could be special….it looks like an average bunch…..
Beyer might have wrong with the twin 82’s, probably way off…and he may have been off with the 100, could’ve been higher?….if Beyer hadn’t set the bar low in the turf races maybe that’s a 102, 103, and….repeat race wins easily.
Good morning. I’ve been keeping up on reading everyone’s posts and I know I’m late to the comments party now that the prep races are complete. So now it’s observing the workouts and waiting for the post positions. Rock Your Worlds SA Derby was so impressive.
This has been a tough group to rank. So I would want to add my appreciation for your hard work Mr. Haskin. Right now I also hope that Rock Your World is that special. As to Essential Quality, the thing that keeps coming up in my brain is how one writer defended Smarty Jones against his detractors by saying that all he knows how to do is win.
Here is a scoop for you. Mike Smith will ride Midnight Bourbon.
Odds drop from 20-1 to 15-1 for the Smith factor?
Talamo was given the ‘bum’s rush’?
Very weird…Talamo ride Midnight perfectly in Louisiana, the horse LOOKED like a winner, but no dice….Talamo’s forte is as a front runner, he rivals Pat Day as a guy who can save horse, Smith—on this horse is no upgrade, not on a frontrunner type.
The O Besos Watch- Up to 23 now, just need three more defections after Weyburn passing on the Derby.
I’ve been keeping his barn up to date. He needs 3 of 4 horses to drop out — Dream Shake, Crowded Trade, Caddo River, and Sainthood. Crowded Trade has been mentioned for the Preakness
Good job. Fantastic. You are the man.
O Besos has no chance to win.
None of them do.
But one will!!
Dead heat…two can win. Or even three.
No, some do-like EQ, RYW, O Besos- not so much!
Neither did Bourbonic in the Wood, oops!
Not even mildly concerned about Bourbonic or O besos winning.
You have a 95% (19 of 20 won’t win) chance at being right if he even gets to start. Winning predictions are a bit tougher.
You noticed that—a guy can say he likes one horse and if he’s right he’s golden….a guy can say he doesn’t like 19 of the 20—and even if he’s wrong about ONE—he’s “right” about the other 18….
If O Besos qualifies I’ll use him in mr verticals, his LA Derby was solid, he nearly got 2nd, rallying inside, I was impressed, Midnight Bourbon was sitting alongside Hot Rod, looking like a winner but he hung, but O Besos was full of run, in a race with so many questions I like the longshot for a slice ….
How did he close so well?…..pace wasnt super fast……everyone says you cannot close on that track……no one seems to mention this
I watched O Besos races big come home times in sprints, too horse has a huge last 1/4
BECAUSE I’LL BE AWAY THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK’S RANKINGS WILL BE POSTED ON TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE PREPS OVER AND MOST EVERYTHING SAID, THE COMMENTS PROBABLY WON’T BE AS DETAILED. I WILL START TO FOCUS MORE ON PEDIGREES.
We’ll all be experiencing withdrawal symptoms from Monday noontime until Tuesday morning. Thanks for the warning.
LOL. I’l try to get it done as fast as possible.
I have W/D’s every Monday morning but for different reasons, LOL
Im sure its obvious but I dont know what W/Ds are
Withdrawals, LOL
Hi Steve
Recently, you mentioned the Dosage Profile on one of the leading contenders. You don’t mention Dosage Numbers that often, so I was a little surprised that you referenced it. I’ve been trying to find that comment, so I can re-read it, but I’ve had no luck in finding it.
I’d appreciate it, if you could redirect me to where it was posted. I’m probably one of the few regulars on these blogs that continue to use Dosage Profile Numbers as part of my handicapping process. I’m thinking you might have referenced Known Agenda’s Profile Numbers, which are DP = 4-5-8-4-1. The number 4 in the Solid category, and the number 1 in the Professional category, project a very strong stamina influence in Known Agenda’s make up, (at least that’s the way I read it).
Thanks Steve
It was in Known Agenda’s comment last week. Dosage was always the Dosage Index which is obsolete because the chef-de-race sires were not kept up so the DI is useless, but the five category Dosage Profile can still give you an idea about a horse’s pedigree, especially if there are any stamina influences.
Many thanks Steve, I appreciate the reply.
Known Agenda checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
1) Sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector
2) Bred from the Mr. P/Northern Dancer cross (sire leads directly to Mr. P. and the broodmare sire line leads directly to ND).
3) St. Elias Stables, LLC homebred
4) Could be a carrier of the large-heart gene (dam side tracks back to Buckpasser, Busanda and on to War Admiral.
5) Highest Equibase Speed Figure in the projected KD field (112)
6) Top trainer and rider, ( Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.)
7) Winner of the Florida Derby, (which has produced 4 out of the last 9 KD winners)
Bottom line, if it weren’t for Rock Your World, Known Agenda would be my top Derby pick.
I do like Known Agenda. There is an abundance of stamina influence on the dam’s side of his pedigree, top and bottom in a zig zag pattern tracking back to Sir Gaylord, Somethingroyal and on to Princequillo and Buckpasser, Busanda to War Admiral. As you know, Princequillo and War Admiral are thought to be carriers of the large heart gene, but many people dismiss it and also dismiss any influence past the 5x.
To add to my comment below, in the Florida Derby Known Agenda was clear in the upper stretch and then drifted out in mid stretch and back in. I don’t know if he was tired or just green, but that is a concern for me. He is a great horse, but I don’t know if he’ll be in my wager; it’s something to think about. There is one thing for sure, I’m betting on pedigree,
Looking forward to your analyses of the pedigrees. Have a safe trip!
Enjoy the weekend and take your time. We can wait for you to polish what you want to add.
Mandaloun……why did he run bad?……bad luck?….something wrong?……people think knowledge doesnt matter………YOU DECIDE……..
Can a bump cause a horse to run bad? Trouble?…..
What the LA derby start.
This is some advanced stuff. Horses are mechanical, in the way they run. The back legs , do what the front legs do….
Watch Mandaloun’s legs coming out of the gate. He was crowded…..he was on his left lead……for 20 strides….jock pulled him back out of trouble, his front legs went to right lead…..but for 10 strides, his back legs were on left lead……weird huh?….keep in mind, horses can interfere, or hit themselves when they do this….coming out of gate, you see this……but 20 strides out of gate? to have the back legs not follow?……rare…….this can indicate an issue….
Mandaloun pulled back out of trouble, but absolutely TOOK OFF…..RAN OFF……..maybe the horse was mad….this move takes a ton of energy……it is an obvious reason why he had nothing………
Do we take this bad sign as the horse having issues?…..probably…….but he has 2 excuses…….we know why he ran bad……these 2 things absolutely made him run bad…..why did he run off after this trouble?…..horses get mad………
Do we excuse this bad effort?……..maybe……
At least we have knowledge of why he came up empty…………..
So, ends up Mandaloun did this a little when he won…..alot in lecomte…….indicating an issue…….the bad race makes sense…….he has an excuse running off early……but im staying away
Big question is whether he wants 10 furlongs, but was done at the 5/16 pole. very surprising.
When considering a horse for the Derby, it doesn’t seem to matter what the excuse may have been for a BAD performance. You can buy excuses at the dollar store (on sale for 49 cents). Fact is that no horse has been off the board in a final prep and won the Kentucky Derby since Iron Liege — when Eisenhower was president of the United States. That’s all I need to know.
If Mandaloun wins the Derby, I’ll be extremely happy. But there’s little chance of that happening.
EddieF
If you draw a line through Mandaloun’s 6th place finish in the Louisiana Derby, his 1st place finish in the Risen Star was quite impressive, IMO. In five career starts, he’s won three, one of which was over the Churchill track, (7F, in 1:23 flat). The dam side of his pedigree reflects an abundance of class and stamina, in which case 10 furlongs should not be a problem. I was very high on Mandaloun early on, his poor performance in the Louisiana Derby was a real shocker for me. I look for a major turn around in the Derby, and I truthfully believe he has a good shot to at least finish in the money. I’ll be using him, underneath in my superfecta wager.
Bill: For me, when a race like this upcoming Der by is so confusing I rely on my gut instincts plus piece together other Derby’s where there was a lot of head scratching and confusion to try and sort things out.
Key factors for me are
1. weather & track conditions…. do bloodlines tell us which horse will like an off track. These lightly raced horses who don’t have a whole lot of foundation really tell us very little.
2. Do these horses have experience in running in a large 20 horse field. Of course that answer is no but 10-12 horse fields tells us something.
3. Derby patterns….. for awhile favorites have fared well in the Derby, perhaps it is time that longshots come forward.
4. Breeding, stamina, race times of prep races, foundation of horses. What I really about Greatest Honour was that he had raced multiple times, 8 if my memory is working.
5. Karma: maybe we should consider that maybe it is time for a certain trainer, jockey or owner to win this race. Much like when Smarty Jones won.
6. Lastly: MY gut feeling, which is not always right but I can pick a lot of horses in the money based on it.
Plus it is important to listen to the experts much like Steve who have a ton of experience and knowledge.
All excellent points Deacon, I can’t argue with anything you’ve stated.
Needless to say the post position draw will play an important role, especially for the speed horses. You mentioned “gut instincts/gut feelings” a couple of times in your post. I’ve had a “gut feeling” about RYW, since his maiden win in January.
As in stands now, would you care to share your top Derby pick? I’ve made it quite clear, RYW is my Derby pick, with Known Agenda as my second choice.
Good luck Deacon
I agree post draw will make an impact. We won’t know that until just a few days before.
Bill: I haven’t made a choice as yet. I want to see what the prediction on the weather will be plus the post positions.
I think we may still have a few more defections before race time.
If I had to select today it would be Essential Quality 1st, Super Stock 2nd & maybe Caddo River or Medina Spirit 3rd.
I really liked Greatest Honour but we know how that scenario ended.
I am not sold sold on Rock Your World as yet but I do understand why others are. I am old school, I like to see horses run at 2 plus run a couple races in sprints. It is possible that some horse may come out of nowhere and win this.
With this wide open year I will be surprised if no Euro’s come over. This could be the year they win it.
Good Luck
Thanks Deacon but Im not sure there any experts when it comes to horses and racing. I certainly dont feel like one or consider myself one
You are as close to an expert in handicapping then anyone else I know.
I have been on these blogs for a long time and I remember you picking a lot of Derby, Preakness & Belmont winners.
If again my memory is working didn’t have Country House a couple years ago.
I read and listen to your analysis. The little things you point out add up to some big things.
Reading your blogs is a big highlight for me. Whether it be the Derby Rankings or just many of the back stories.
Every story you write I feel like I was right there experiencing that moment.
Only other writer I was ever mesmerized by was the late great Jim Murray.
I get ya, Bill. But Mandy doesn’t fit my handicapping profile of a Derby winner. I have nearly 20 questions that must be answered for all runners. After it’s done, I whittle down the entries to the five or six top runners according to the profile results and finalize my bets from there. Mandaloun will not likely be one of them. But second and third place is a whole different ballgame. Nearly every horse has a chance. No profiling for that. 🙂
Thunder Gulch was 4th in Bluegrass. Won the Derby.
I don’t consider TG’s 4th-place finish a “bad” race. Regardless, it was 26 years ago.
Also, I did say “off the board.” Fourth is ON the board.
….by 4 1/2 lengths…
Great detailed observations and explanations! Thanks.
maybe Bob should play with some new equipment…….this horse just has quirks……he foams out, etc……no tie? diff tie…..you can see it in his races….his best was the rebel no issue…..he was sent hard….lots of foam, but as i said they breathe thru nose…….but it is all related…..
OK………being an expert on watching horses…..knowing what looks good, and bad…….i will show you all something. It may or not be important. I WILL LET YOU DECIDE. It is very hard to tell, if it is an optical illusion, or not
We use tongue ties on horses. Why? Basically to help their BREATHING. some believe in it more than others. USUALLY, A tie can mean a horse may not like a longer distance. In a normal situation, you can add this piece of info to build a story, like in poker, that a horse might not want to go long…..being a pro, there are many things like this, that are “good to know”. Now, CONCERT TOUR runs with a tongue tie. Does this mean he cannot route?. NO….BAFFERT uses them on most……….
That said…….everyone was shocked at how he stopped. It really made no sense…….this may be an explaination……..make up your own minds. Is this an optical illusion?…..
Watch the replay……..watch concert tour…….everything looked perfect, until the 1/8th pole…….ALL OF A SUDDEN……..you he his tongue flapping……for a few strides…………this happens of course……his tongue is tied……
BUT WATCH THE WHOLE RACE…….did you see that tongue flapping?….No……where was it?……..after you saw it flapping……..did you see it after it did?…………you can all laugh…..i am RIGHT. ……..did he flip?…….did his tongue tie shift? Horses bite tongues, actually chunks off…….i had a horse it a tongue that had pieces off……
AGAIN…….YOU never saw his toungue until halfway down stretch…..for a few strides….it was way out flapping……
Can this explain a lack of air?……when do bob horses quit like this? You will notice the foam, again this happens….also his head at the end of his stride was doing a circle motion, back and forth, not up and down…..
Do you see a tongue ? or not?…….regardless, something looked different…….i say run him……..
So , going back to REBEL……you notice he does have an issue with foam…..lol……..many horses do this, not a ton of top horses. Horses do NOT breath through their mouths, but i bring this up, because it is a quirk the horse has……in the SAN VINCENTE, he also looks to really grab the bit hard….his head way down early….so he IS very quirky….i didnt love how high his stride was in this race, it looked better at Oaklawn….in san vincente , he had that weird nose motion at the end of his stride, kinda jerky……he did this on sat too…in the REBEL……he didnt……probaby because he was not driving him hard….
Regardless, he really is quirky…kind of rank…..MAYBE holding him DOESNT WORK………
This kind of horse is not great going long, but if he learns to relax his mouth, relax in general, he will be better…….in rebel, they asked him hard early…..this quirky horse needs that kinda ride…..
regardless ….if it was tongue or not……..i think THIS is the issue………he needs to relax his mouth…..etc
love…..these posts….
Me…..too…..
I was talking to a well known jockeys agent and told him I wouldnt be surprised if he displaced. I eliminated bleeding or having mucus because they would have found that, but not if he displaced. I also have noticed he works up a lot of saliva in his races, in this case down the backstretch when he was being restrained. I dont know if that affected him, because some horses do this, but I wouldnt be surprised if he displaced. I didnt mention it in the comment because its not my job to speculate on something physical.
He did not displace, so still baffling.
This has been a prep season of talent gone bad……..making it a pretty weak derby……which brings more horses into play……but also the chance of a big winning margin…….top 5 seem much the best if they run their race……i only see eq and chuck
No one would shock me anymore
I hope you won’t take credit for ranking him #3 if the favorite, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, wins the KD.
I see the logic. You don’t get much credit for picking the favored horse, but you get a ton of accolade if one of your longshot picks wins it.
Question: If you only have to pick one, will you still pick RYW to win the KD?
I believe he indicated that Known would be on all his tickets. I’m thinking Known is his true pick and that Rock is the potential freaky superhorse designee.
All we need now is a dry fast beautifully blue day and this will be the best Kentucky Derby in years. I love this derby trail for all it’s ambiguities. It has been a while since we were in this desirable position. The good news is we have no better source than Steve to give us tidbits of pertinent information. Not that he hasn’t served up the best menu to date. This is where the rubber hits the road, where the last pieces of the puzzle are presented, and where biases are blindly held or grudgingly released for opportunity. This is the best part of the Derby Trail. Soak it up. The truth is out there.
Nicely put… soak it up ! Always been the best day of the year for me … And it’s Spring after a tuff winter in the Adirondacks of upstate NY.. Spring and hope and Derby !
Hey Steve – hope you’re well.
What did you think of Unbridled Honor? I was thrilled with his performance – you know I thought he’d run well, but slop through everything up into the air. My biggest issue was that he again dropped back to last, but my friends and I honestly think now that Julien didn’t do a good job. UH broke well, but Julien took him back to last to try and save ground – except, I like Brian Hernandez on KF, he ended up going wide. It looked to me like UH resented the restraint. He really made a nice, extended move, and I thought he might catch KF, but he ran on his wrong lead for a bit, and KF had the jump. This was – I’m guessing – by far his fastest race on figures. Todd said about a week before that if he ran well he could go to Preakness, but I think maybe the Peter Pan/Belmont route would be better. I still don’t think this colt has reached his full potential. I DO hope they make a jockey change – one who will allow UH to settle into mid pack, enter I think he wants to be.
FYI, keep an eye on Ethical Judgement, who returned in a turf race that was taken off turf. He’d been off for 6 months and I think was over eager. Brendan Walsh is very, very high on him.
Stay safe and well!
that was a good ride……..they stopped……you wanted a closer………my longshot was 3rd…..dint like how close he was
I would think they will look at the Preakness now. It was an encouraging performance
My take on Steve’s rankings…
1) Rock Your World – strong gut feeling it won’t be his day, toss
2) Known Agenda – don’t see him winning, but strong underneath
3) Essential Quality – the win bet if my life depended on it
4) Dynamic One – not good enough to win, usable underneath
5) Hot Rod Charlie – good horse, must use underneath
6) Highly Motivated – don’t see him close up at the wire, toss
7) Super Stock – not a believer, toss
8) Midnight Bourbon – don’t see him getting 1 1/4, toss
9) Medina Spirit – my gut says no but can’t toss, use underneath
10) Bourbonic – not a believer, toss
11) Concert Tour – not a fan, toss
12) Soup and Sandwich – not ready for the derby, toss
13) O Besos – my gut says no but can’t toss, use underneath
14) Rombauer – can see him sneaking into the exotics, use underneath
15) Helium – no opinion, only look at 1 1/8+ preps
16) Like the King – not for me, toss
In Summary…
On top – Essential Quality
Underneath (ex, tri, sup) – Known Agenda, Dynamic One, Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit, O Besos, Rombauer
Lol! My take is Rock Romps… throw the entire aftermath out!……up for grabs for place and show and who cares…, cause that’s all there Getin ! 🙂
For what it’s worth, Rock was my Anita horse. So I don’t dislike the horse or doubt his ability. It’s just my strong gut feelings against in the derby have been pretty accurate. So sticking with it.
I CANNOT believe you have NO opinion of Helium!!!!
Lol 🙂
Steve, with regard to the connections that have yet to commit their horses to the Derby…In discussions between owner and trainer, how often does the trainer recommend not entering but the owner says, “No, I want to enter.” And have you ever heard of the opposite? Trainer says “Yes” and owner says “No.”
Having followed and watched, in real-time, every Derby since 1958 I sense something distinct about this one–Not a single potential entrant seems relatively certain of finishing among the first three.
But, not all those that seemed such did in fact finish among the top three.
Maybe Essential Quality, but no one else
I’d say Essential Quality as well but I agree with your assessment. Greatest Honour was the other colt I thought seemed certain to place in the top three.
I am gracious to Steve, Nelson, Eddie, and many more for such a great read, each week. I am so grateful for all of this outstanding reading. Thanks!
I am not giving up on either Baffert horses. Steve, great point about missing training with MS…He might have more improvement in him. I really don’t know much about his pedigree though…But he did earn and beat HRC on the square….
CT looked like a sure thing mid stretch, but something went amiss obviously. Even appeared he would win easily again for just a moment.. I think the number was low as well. His mile split though was faster than the Oaklawn mile ran by older graded winners. Do you put stock in the mile split? He will be your front runner. Also, Rosario isn’t given up on CT either. Must be something he likes more than HRC…. Bob did state he didnt want to empty the tank on CT prior to the KD…
I guess the first work back will tell the tale on CT…but you might get double digit odds on him now, which is enticing long shot….
That’s nice of you to say, Jeff. But we all know the star of this show is and always will be….
NELSON!
😉
LOL !
I only wish I had your witty and levity in conveying your points.
Our inspiration comes from Steve and his followers.
I second that emotion.
Thanks Jeff. Medina is likely going to move up next week You’ll see why
oh, don’t tease us with that! I can’t take the anticipation…..do we really need to wait until next week to find out. 🙂
Thanks Jeff.
There is great expectation to see Concert Tours’s energy level in the coming days.
His Rebel was too good to be dismissed that easily… I also wanted to see him regaining that kind of flare.
Something Richard Migliore said on Steve Byk’s show aboyt Medina Spirit a couple of weeks ago struck me as a good tip. Richie is of the opinion that the horse is like a bicycle, and the crop is his cue to run. Outside the California jurisdiction and it’s srricit limits on the use of the crop, he thinks we will see a different horse.
That makes perfect sense. Like Pavlov’s dogs when they hear the bell.
We’re on the same page, Steve. I’m all in on your top three, only in a different order.
Regarding Know Agenda, it was Johnny Velazquez who suggested the blinkers after his poor showing in the Sam Davis. Irad Ortiz and Todd Pletcher thanked him for that
Steve we know that Sadler will work on the Santa Anita Track with Rock, and we have already discussed how we both agree it would be nice to see any horse get a feel for a new track. Rock is on a turf to dirt conversion so in his case this may be a stronger point. I’m guessing Sadler will work him with a 4F high tempo… and then 5F the following week high tempo. I don’t believe Sadler will lay off him. Your thoughts? After his final work, it would be nice if he was shipped early in the week after a day or two to rest after his final work. Point being, if he gets to Churchill early in the week, he can Inspect his competition … and Horses do this and you know this also… Then he can have a few gallops on the track to get a feel for it.
Thanks Steve.
I agree JC. I am looking forward to seeing his works. They will be very important. Thy always ask him to run, no easy works for him
Thanks for reply Steve ! Your a busy man tonight !
Thanks Steve for your insight, very informative piece. Always love reading your Derby Rankings! I’m kind of leaning toward Rock Your World, but still in wait and see mode.
Thanks Teri
Can’t fault your analysis. I love Rock Your World I loved that run out. I hope everybody stays sound . I only have one question I need answered the week of the Derby and that’s who is on the “BLOSSOM” I still remember how Bluegrass Cat blossomed that week and ByK picked up on it. That was the tip of the Derby
Yep you remember correctly. I mentioned that in my Derby column/
I never forget before the results were official at the Meadowlands I heard a bunch guys barking “UNDER 600 UNDER 600 UNDER 600” I kept my composure thank god
Going back to Rock Your World pedigree one can see that his dam, second and third dams were all Black Type winners. This is rarely seen in Derby horses.
His dam Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker, made 340 Thousand Dollars. Among her best races were a 3rd in Santa Anita’s Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes in her second start. The Oak Leaf was a 1 1/6-mile Stakes on dirt. She finished her 2-year-old campaign with a second in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet Stakes.
Charm the Maker did not reproduce her promising 2-year-old races but won the mile of the Adoration Stakes at Del Mar when it was an all-weather track logging an outstanding 95 2/5.
2nd dam Charm the Giant, by Giant Causeway, bank rolled 336 Thousand Dollars running on turf. Her salient wins were the Hillsborough Handicap, the G3 Wilshire Handicap and the Intercontinental Handicap.
Rock Your World’s 3rd dam, Olympic Charmer, was a very accomplished dirt runner with wins in the Railbird Stakes (G2) , the El Encino Stakes (G2) and a second in the Las Breas Stakes (G1) among her best performances. Olympic Charmer ended her campaign with about half million dollars to her account.
The matriarch Olympic Charmer became a blessing for the McAnnally family and it would be great to see their life-long devotion crowned with a Derby victory. The wealth of talent shown so far by Rock Your World can naturally spark big dreams.
The more you look the more you like—there’s a lot to like…
I’m just banking on him being special. He will have to be
Good stuff, and Rock Your World is not alone (even in the top 3) in having an impressive female family.Essential Quality’s dam, Delightful Quality, was GSP in her career. Her 2nd dam, Jeano, was a multiple G3 winner, and her dam, Basie, was a G1 winner. Known Agenda’s dam, Byrama, was a G1 winner at 9F, and won from 6F to 9F.
Thanks Prof.. You are right, there are other prospects with impressive female family but few with the three first winning more that 300K.
Essential Quality is also descendant of La Troienne (Family 1x) which has produced about 900 Stakes winners worldwide.
Dynamic One got the most impressive collection of dams in his pedigree.
Proxy’s dam is a millionaire Stakes winner but the other dams are rather modest in their campaigns. Perhaps most impressive dam is King Fury’s dam Taris…
Anyways, my point was to pay tribute to Ron and Deborah McAnally who are the makers of the female line that produced Rock Your World.
And there I was so excited about the wealth of impressive female families among the top Derby contenders that I glossed right over your point about the McAnallys. My apologies, and you are right to call our attention to it!
No need to apologize. It is always a pleasant exercise to go over the big names in the pedigrees of Derby hopefuls.
Fascinating stuff, Nelson. Do you know if the first three dams of any Derby winner were all black-type winners?
Thanks Eddie.
Sea Hero comes to mind: Glowing Tribute, Admiring and Searching.
I can not seem to find another one… but I let you know if come across another one.
Wow! Thanks, Nelson.
Keys to Rock Pedigree … Unbridled who was long and lanky with huge stride and EmpireMaker who’s was a jet ! Nice combo … and Candy ! Weeee haaaaa !!
And Giant Causeway… enjoying the same nick as Gun Runner’s… WEEEE Haaa!
Nice One !
Love that Candy Ride exacta. Make sure you reverse it.
After reading the new Derby list week 13, and I don’t know if that has anything to with it but I all of a sudden have a strong desire to watch Shawshank Redemption again so that is what I am going to do.
I guess it comes down to a simple choice, really. Get busy handicapping, or get busy dying.
Damn, you are good. Movie is about to start, with snacks, hasta la vista. Keep the awesome comments coming. You are a real treat.
🙂
Go for it, Porgy! You may find the money in that stone wall.
Steve H. –
Thanks for compiling Derby Rankings Week 13. So who are the established front runners that will dispute the early pace in KD 2021? If there are enough of them, I need to find a reliable closer or two to finish the job after running 1 1/4 miles. LOL.
Also, what topic(s) will you cover during the few weeks leading up to Saturday, May 1? If there is a shortage of hot topics, I would suggest that you invite your readers to mention and include a word or two about their most favorite Kentucky Derby in years past.
This is merely a suggestion to help fill the anticipated dead period. Thanks again tor your Derby Rankings Week 13 comments.
7.5 Furlongs
Great Idea! Mine would be 1999 Charismatic; will always have very fond memories of both horse and rider.
This is the 50th anniversary of the incredible victory of Canonero II. Steve wrote a beautiful piece on him 10 years ago. I wouldn’t mind another look.
You mean in Knocking on the Door? I havent had time to write columns. I can check with Leonard to see what he thinks.
I mean invite your readers to submit their choice of favorite Kentucky Derby. Including year and why the race stands out. In 150 words or less. LOL.
“I’ll Have Another”..beating Body … won $600 🙂 Which is why I like Hot Rod Charlie in top 5. O’Neil trainer.
2012… stands out why … watch the race ! Then the Preakness ! He couldn’t complete the first triple crown in many years because he pulled out of Belmont with injury. 🙁
And Bodemeister was all out from the the gate to wire al Bodemeister’s ways and he was a machine and tuff to catch … only I’ll Have Another could catch him … as a close stalker ! A closer will not catch Rock !
I don’t make large bets > $100. So I had a $25-30 future wager on Bodemeister in the 2012 KD. That one hurt. But I was sitting with a friend and his friend. This his friend bets 10x my bets. He had Bodemeister. He turned very quiet in the few hours after the 2012 Derby.
Me too on IHA. That horse was awesome.
For me and appropriate here would be 1973 and Secretariat.
A lot of people remember the 1973 KD. Secretariat broke the stakes record (and track record?) in 1973, 48 years ago. I believe it will be another 48 years before Secretariat’s Derby record is broken. And maybe even another 48 years after that.
Steve:
As always, thank you so much for your weekly insights. I know I am not the only reader who has consistently looked forward to your new Monday column: kind of like Sundays back in the Sopranos time! Ok, I checked my Bobada account and I started my futures wagers September 28th 2020, which is why I am fortunate enough to have the following in the Derby:
Essential Quality to win $990. @ 30-1
Rock Your World to win $2k @ 40-1
Hot Rod Charlie to win $4.4k @ 46-1
Highly Motivated to win $7.2k @ 39-1
Medina Spirit to win $4.8k @ 24-1…probably underlay
Midnight Bourbon to win $3.9k @ 53-1
I think I might hedge with Known Agenda…Most Derby’s I can usually figure out likely pace setters and general race shape, but this one has me very confused! Trifecta will be fun and challenging!
Thanks again!
Biggie, you got way more money to play with than I do! Best of luck to you!
Sally:
Thank you very much! I have more wagered than I put into account due to using winning horse wagers to fund futures….If I win and you visit Las Vegas, dinner on me!
You’re on!
I thought I was one of the first to spot Rock Your World after his maiden win, back in January (New Year’s Day). Evidently, you were very high on him before he broke his maiden. Your 2K win wager ( at 40-1) makes my $100.00 win wager, in Pool 5, at 31-1, look rather puny. You’ve got 6 top contenders, and yes, you would be wise to hedge your bets by adding Known Agenda, who checks a lot of boxes (if not all the boxes), IMO.
Best of luck with your wagers, biggy312. I believe we’ve got the Derby winner in Rock Your World. 🙂
Don’t forget $2 to win on the longest shot on the board!
Have you ever withdrew money from there?…….you you know what happens?
Wow, Biggy, now I know where to go to borrow money. Those are awesome bets. How did you come to bet so much on RYW? BTW comparing this to waiting for the Sopranos blew me away. That is quite an honor. Thank you
Steve:
The only reason I got onto RYW was from one of your early mentions: hence the big buffet dinner here when you come to Vegas after RYW wins!
LOL, Well, then I wish you the best of luck
Wow ! Nice tickets ! I have a nice wager on Rock @31/1 … but not 4K ! Nice ! Like I said in another post on HorseRacing Nation … everyone was doubting him on turf “except for the 5 of us who bet on him in future wager 5 “ lol. It’s nice after betting future wagers every year to finally have a shot !
biggy’s post makes me feel like watching Gilligan’s Island so that is what I am going to do. The millionaire and his wife, the professor, and Mary Ellen here on Gilligan’s Isle.
Thank you again, Steve, for a wonderful read Monday noon. I must be obsessed with your column since I started hitting refresh at 11:58 AM or so to try to be the first to read your new post! When it appeared I sat down and read it all the way through before there were even two or three comments posted. I always love this time of year and your column, this year on secretariat.com, is a truly welcome and wondrous part of the fun!
I really appreciate that Sally. Thank you so much
About EQ: “Although I feel the Blue Grass Stakes was an excellent prep and just what he needed, he did look vulnerable through most of the stretch run and was all out to barely beat a horse who had never been two turns. Hey, I’m just looking for anything I can find to justify not having him No. 1.”
That’s funny. But I’ve heard folks give that as a serious argument against EQ. I know the last 7 or 8 years seem like a whole new era of the Derby, but let’s not forget all of the contemporary Derby winners that had a hard stretch drive with a close finish in the final prep: I’ll Have Another, Super Saver, Street Sense, Barbaro, Funny Cide, Silver Charm, Grindstone, and Lil E. Tee. IHA and Charm had the same 28 days to the Derby, while the two SSs, FC, and Grindstone had 21. Grindstone had 35 days to recover; Lil E. Tee had 14 days!
Good observations Eddie F. That is why we look for those “battle-tested” horses while handicapping the Derby. The ones proven to withstand pressure; those who passed the test of grit and determination.
Can’t help it recalling the super easy wins by Bellamy Road and his fiasco in the Derby with more pace burden on him.
You could also say that even Curlin (after winning the Arkansas Derby by 10 lengths) needed the hard fight he got in the Derby to flourish from there on.
However, you see horses like Bodemeister who also won the Arkansas Derby very easily (9.5 lengths) and almost stole the Derby wire to wire.
Of course, you can also have horses so superior that they naturally win by wide margins. Case in point, California Chrome who was always unchallenged in California.
At the end it is a matter of striking a balance between “not squeezing the lemon” and doing just the (minimum) required to move forward in form.
As you said, no one can hold a hard fought win of Essential Quality against him. Moreover, Highly Motivated had all the rights to win a completely paceless race. So the champ win races that he is not supposed to win… Above all he just confirmed his indomitable will to win. That is something. Isn’t it?
It is something in his favor, for sure. That and four straight graded wins at 8.5/9f. And a win over the CD surface may not always help, but it certainly doesn’t hurt!
Wow, what a mess this years Derby picture is. Concert Tour just went from the penthouse to the outhouse.
It seems that except for Essential Quality no Derby contender can run back to back winning races.
Maybe Rock Your World is also a flash in the pan.
Heck if I know……… loved your assessments Steve, you always make a lot of sense.
All I can count on is my experience in horse racing, but this year is truly a crap shoot.
Maybe I should go see a taro card reader or find a crystal ball.
I am sticking with Essential Quality until someone beats him. Known Agenda is my 2nd pick then I will throw in some random longshot.
Great read Steve, thank you again.
Thanks Deacon. At this point I’m just trying to make it interesting and entertaining
Although we’re only 30-some comments in on another stellar column, Steve, I don’t have much to add — except that the end result is bound to surprise us in some way. With so much consensus on the top 4 or 5, perhaps it will be the year of the long shot. Question is, which one?
I couldnt agree more. I will be looking very hard at the longshots…and a closer
I never seem to land on the right horse in those situations. In 2001, I was at a Kentucky Derby party in the NJ pinewoods, and was one of the few actually paying attention to the race show. Every one was picking a different horse, and my husband asked for my recommendation on those who were left, and I came up with Monarchos. Hardly a long shot, but the winner was right in front of me and I didn’t pick him.
Don’t just pick one long shot, but rather have several in mind. I’ve been fortunate enough to have bet Giacomo, Barbaro, Monarchos, Charismatic and Animal Kingdom and each time was so thrilled to have seen something there maybe others missed. (No Mine That Bird for me, however.) I think this year will produce an unexpected longshot on the board for sure.
I put a win wager on Mine That Bird. I was surprised when he went off at 50-1. He didn’t run well in the US, but he was champion 2 year old in Canada. I really liked his pedigree, with the Mr. Prospector sire line on top and the strong stamina influence of the female line of his broodmare sire, Smart Strike on the the bottom. The icing on the cake was at that time Calvin Borel owned Churchill Downs. At 50-1, it doesn’t get any better than that. Everybody has an angle; in the triple crown races I pay much more attention to pedigree.
Mine that Bird, an 8-length Derby winner…wouldn’t have qualified today–he had no points! He got if from his graded earnings in Canada, I think…
People forget that. Points system and Baffert wins another Derby.
6 3/4 lengths, but who’s counting? 🙂
Maybe if there had been a point system, Woolley would have put him in those prep races and earned 10 points here, 10 points there, and … voila!
I know all about the point system Matthew and Mr. Haskin. I did not forget that. He had the earnings from his races as a two year old in Canada; today he would not qualify. I was simply responding to Sally’s post, since she mentioned Mine That Bird. My post had nothing whatsoever to do with points or earnings; it was about a 50-1 longshot that showed up in the Kentucky Derby. The end.
Good for you Mary, Mine That Bird was a good one. It’s beside the point how he got it, but it was the same way as all the others, with earnings. Saying he wouldn’t make it in now is a worthless dig. I wouldn’t knock Canadian racing either, not with the weak US preps but also because Woodbine has competitive races. Lots of Americans trainers compete there.
A very good read(liked the puzzle analogy to kick things off). I’m encouraged to read that I’m seeing the trail similar to you. Some how that brings me comfort. Of course I’m only talking about the top 3 or 4. The possible boomers for the lower positions I leave to you. A while ago our retired local writer Jennie Rees put much emphasis on the final times of the 1 1/8 races. Final 3/8s and final 1/8. Do you use that in any of your problem solving? As always, can never get enough of your story telling. Thanks
I always look at the final 3/8, but it doesnt always hold true. This year is just way too confusing. sometimes you just go by your gut.
I’m taking solace in the hope that it may mean something this year as RYW came home in 12.9 and 38.5. Ok for the final f (by only a tenth of a second), but a half second slow for the final 3/8. I say this because I’ve got O Besos key boxed with nine of them and all others in pool five exacta. RYW isn’t one of them. Oops. Maybe. Full disclosure down to seven plus all others with defections of greatest honor and Weyburn.
CT
EQ
HM
HRC
Mandaloun
MB
Helium
All others
$2key box 1×10 $40
Steve Haskin, your gut is killing me. Lol. Of course, OB might not make it or run a dud. Thanks for the great column.
If he gets in O Besos is a very live horse. Watch him move up the rankings once he’s in
Steve, to answer your opening question: No, I cannot envision a Derby winner other than the top three or four. My top two at this point are #1 Essential Quality and #2 Known Agenda. Rock Your World is probably my #3, but I can’t get past his inexperience and that everything depends on the evaluation of one single graded-stakes prep. Yes, Known Agenda’s reputation is tethered to a single big graded-stakes win, but I see his 2yo foundation as an advantage. I do see RYW’s beautiful way of moving –however, I don’t have your eye(s) for seeing the deeper meaning of those qualities. I’ve been wondering whether you’ve seen in Derby prospects of years past the same qualities that have impressed you about RYW. If so, which ones?
I’m giving some thought to your comments about exactas with longshot closers coming in second behind one of the favorites…perhaps Bourbonic and O Besos in addition to Rombauer. There’s plenty of time to work all of this out. Maybe.
Thanks for another great analysis!
I had the same reservations about Justify who only had the one stakes race. Hes at least had two. But yes its always a concern. As I keep saying I’m only going by my feeling he may be a freak. If hes not he wont win.
You guys call RYW and LIG “beautiful movers……….”……….HOW?…….BEAUTIFUL MOVERS do everything right…….it in no way is beautiful…….
That’s what SHE said.
One can be a “beautiful mover” and still not do “everything right”. Ex. – suppose American Pharoah had the type of action/movement and carriage etc. that he indeed possessed, but was green etc and perhaps a bad actor (none of which he was) which led to his not maintaining a straight path etc.?
wrong……..he didnt run straight?……when?
You are so wrong. Beautiful mover refers to his stride, the way he hits the ground, how smooth he is, how he holds his head. After that its about greenness or unsoundness or whatever. Nothing to do with how he moves over the ground. A horse can shy from the whip and drift out and be a beautiful mover.
vet you missed the point. It was only a hypothetical A. Pharoah that didn’t run straight, not the real A. Pharoah. Try reading again what I wrote and this time a bit more carefully.
Nice ranking with very solid top three. As Steve always says, they need a photo-finish to ascertain who is best…
We know now where is Concert Tour relative to the contenders… with Flavien Prat named on Hot Rod Charlie now Joel Rosario will have to stick with Concert Tour with the hopes of a great rebound in the Derby.
It seems like Panadol, Highly Motivated, Soup and Sandwich, Concert Tour, Rock Your World, Caddo River, Hot Rod Charlie, Sainthood and Midnight Bourbon will be enabling a solid pace in the Derby.
If hot fractions are granted, we could see some bombshells sneaking in the exotics as we have seen many times in past Derbies. Steve is putting forward good (long-shot) choices in Bourbonic, Rombauer, Helium, O Besos and Like the King.
As Steve stated, Bourbonic will be better at 10 furlongs. The son of Bernardini will be closing fast in the stretch for sure.
I was thinking the same about Helium. If the son of Ironicus wins the Derby then Casse will be writing a whole new chapter about preparing horses to the big day.
But I find Like the King to be a very intriguing one. He won the Jeff Ruby in good style running widest of all and with some hard bumps in the homestretch.
On top of all the stamina-rich sires mentioned by Steve in his pedigree you can see that his third dam, Twin Bet, was an excellent stayer with campaigns in France and California. She won the 1 ½-mile Waya Stakes on turf and her best races were always in route Stakes.
BTW Steve, If I may ask, what is your take on Sainthood … he was knocked hard in the last turn as you mentioned in its day but he is flying way under the radar these days.
When many horses are found gasping for oxygen in the last furlong it pays to have the genes like a king of endurance.
If any of those closers are 50 to 1 they can be considered a kind of overlays.
Thanks again Steve for all your energy and dedication to keep your followers abreast of the Derby Trail.
I’m just waiting for an official word on Sainthood. I would have thought he was Preakness bound, but if they go in the Derby then you have to consider him. But he’s still very untested in class company…on dirt
Thanks for your reply Steve.
We then have to be patient and wait for the final entries to start the hard work of handicapping the Derby.
Not final entries. Just have the trainers commit one way or the other in the next week
The bottom of Sainthood’s pedigree is inundated with stamina. Two events come to mind when I think about his broodmare sire, Lemon Drop Kid; winner of the Belmont Stakes and spoiler of Charismatic’s run for the Triple Crown. Sainthood’s pedigree screams Belmont Stakes.
I completely agree that Sainthood’s pedigree reflects an abundance of stamina influence. His DP = 4-2-5-3-0 (with a 3 in the “Solid” slot) he should be able to run all day. I just finished watching the video replay of the Jeff Ruby Steaks, with a better trip I believe he would have won the race. Coming out of the far turn, his rider had to take up sharply, losing momentum, as he was making a big move. His rider got him in the clear, and once again he starting making a big move on the leaders. With a little more distance I’m convinced he would have won the race.
If Sainthood makes the Derby starting gate, he’s one to consider to use underneath in the exotics, IMO.
I looked at the Jeff Ruby Steaks’ chart. Wow, that was indeed a problematic trip for Sainthood; I’ll watch the video tonight. He’s definitely on my list.
What if Concert runs in the pat day mile?
Then he probably won’t run in the Ky Derby.
He may need a vacation instead … Arkansas was giving not only bad signs but bad feelings as well.
Very nice job Steve with your weekly analysis on all the horses and all factors!
Thank you.
Thanks JC
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing such an in depth analysis on your top Derby contenders. We certainly appreciate all the time and effort you put forth in compiling these Derby Rankings, week after week. If you don’t mind, I’d like to add one other positive aspect to Known Agenda’s make up, he’s a St. Elias Stable homebred. Over the past 17 years, 60% of the Kentucky Derby winners have been homebred, (10 out of 17). In addition, Known Agenda’s sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and his broodmare sire leads directly to Northern Dancer. That “specific cross”, has produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races.
With respect to homebreds, there are currently 10 on the Derby trail, namely; Essential Quality, Bourbonic, Concert Tour, Mandaloun, Caddo River, Highly Motivated, Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One and O Besos. Just something to ponder.
Thank you, Bill. Great stuff on homebreds. I’m always a sucker for homebreds. Old school
Your welcome Steve. BTW, I neglected to include Rombauer as another homebred that will likely run in the Derby. In which case, we could see no less than eleven homebreds in this year’s Derby. Rombauer is owned and bred by John & Diane Fradkin.
Interesting stats on homebreds. And I would love add Super Stock to the list of homebreds with all the Asmussen hands-on in everything but breeding the colt, so he doesn’t make the list.
I first “saw” Super Stock via TV in the saddling area for the Arkansas Derby and my jaw dropped. Who is that? He reminded me of Seattle Slew, a boy among men. He’s up in my exacta.
I like this very much and thank you. As for how the horse gets here? Every horse is different. They have their own personalities, strengths and weakness. One size does not fit all with training and I think the good ones as in trainers know that. So we wait some more to see what unfolds this week. Looking forward to reading the comments soon to come. May you break that 500 mark again.
I loved that Concert Tour race …… until the stretch.
Joel sure as heck seemed to be sitting chilly not pushing any buttons. Almost like a teaching experience but not thrilled after Caddo passed him.
Hope he is fine, for I loved that burst in the Rebel….its a KD winning move.
A Street Sense baby out of a Tapit should not have distance limitations.
I’ll sit and wait to see who JR selects, that will tell.
Prat got Hot Rod Charlie for the Derby so looks like Rosario sticking with Concert Tour.
Hate disagreeing with the Man himself, Steve, but must say I found the Santa Anita Derby to be a weak race after all the figures came out. Rock Your World, having not raced at 2 and not having that closing late pace fig is a big red flag for me. Excited to hear about the works over the next few weeks.
the race was not slow……he ran as good as anyone…..they are all close ……off times……….the worry is Rock and Known ran their very best races by far…….good luck with that
I like Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie ❤️
Still sticking with Rock and Charlie. The more I watch the Santa Anita Derby the more I’m impressed with Rock. Hopefully I’ll get to see a Derby horse or two as I’m heading there Thursday morning to watch the workouts. Any chance to see a thoroughbred run is a treat and I’m thrilled for this chance!
Rombauer caught a slow pace prep, but he showed early gumption, he chased….took out of his deep closing style but after falling back on the far turn he rallied strongly down the lane….a perfect two preps, one from far back on Tapeta, the other was better, although he finished 3rd…..MUST INCLUDE!
By the way— was getting wifey a bottle of chardonnay, and saw a bottle of Rombauer….on sale was $51….so….if Rombauer wins….wifey is getting the Rombauer!
If Rombauer loses do you keep the bottle all to yourself?
Dynamic One beat Bourbonic by at least 5 lengths; yes he did. Relative to pedigree, he is number 1. I wonder if his connections will bypass the derby and wait for the Preakness or the Belmont.
His pedigree #1 ? Hardly. Sire is no better than so-so, dam couldn’t run and aside from D. One hasn’t produced anything of note.
So what’s your point, Dynamic One’s sire won the Belmont Stakes and he’s out of a Smart Strike mare. His dam was retired after just 2 starts, so her racing career is obviously irrelevant; it does not change Dynamic One’s pedigree. So I think you should make an effort to delve further into his pedigree. Also, Secretariat’s dam had 2 starts and at the age of 18 she foaled Secretariat. In closing, there is no room for argument, Dynamic One is regally bred.
My point was made quite clearly…hopefully for some.
His sire is no better than so so; I beg to differ and so does Lane’s End. You obviously have no interest in pedigree and that’s okay, to each his own, really. So have a nice evening.
His 4th dam was Personal Ensign. His 2nd and 3rd dams each won over $1.5 million. It’s doubtful any surpass that. Union Rags is as good as any sire from his decade.
Hey Steve
Like the KIng is by PALICE Malice– Grandfather Curlin
Just in case it was a typo.
If King
Meant to Say
IF King fury gets in , he could be a real sleeper and at good odds. I love his stride and especially the way he carries his neck. HE IS ONE TO WATCH.
Although he wont be in the derby- The best horse in the ARK DERBY moving forward will be GET HER NUMBER That horse had all sorts of problem at the start being shuffled 7 lengths back and came flying still to miss getting up for third.
I’ll let the King beat me, he never showed much in several races last year, and the other day was handed a ready made fast pace to close into, there are better three year olds, in my opinion, but I’ve been wrong before!
Well you failed to mention that CURLINS are more well know for coming on strong in bopth their 3 yrold and 4 yrold season so your thought on
So your thought on him being a toss is really not a factor. Also KING FURY was wheeled back 11 days after his Street Sense win which was foolish and then he was gutted for the rest of the yr. Another note, of the very few 2 yrolds of Curlin to win fall Stakes races Good Magic would be second in the DERBY and so would be Exaggerator
I liked Exaggerator and Good Magic and Curlin all more than King Fury, those first three didn’r run five so-so races before getting good, go for it—you love him…I don’t, is all.
I mentioned Palace Malice in the comment, but somehow came out Curlin on top. That was changed. Have no idea how that happened, Week 13 brain freeze?
I figured lol
Hello Steve, I agree on your enthusiasm for Dynamic One as he is improving at the right time and has a dynamite pedigree. Steve you did not mention Sainthood. Sainthood would have won the Jeff Ruby going away but he was behind horses in the stretch, stopped and finished with a flourish to get 2nd. I could see him getting 3 or 4 at a big price. What’s your view on Sainthood Steve, he’s in with 40 points.
We all need an angle. How about the Jeff Ruby angle? Sainthood/Like The King exacta box. Or how about use those two in the place spot for a Jeff Ruby heavy trifecta key play with others you prefer for the win and the show. One of those two will hit the board methinks.