Derby Rankings: Week 14
The preps are officially over and there is nothing left but to watch the horses train and see who is thriving at Churchill Downs. There will be no Rankings next week, but we’ll have one final list the Monday before the Derby recapping what we’ve seen in the morning followed by a handicapping column on Thursday, May 5. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 18, 2022 – Week 14
By Steve Haskin
1– Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
The only question I have with him is what his best running style is. He is so versatile it is a bit confusing because we have seen him be effective from just off the pace and from dead last. It seems as if he’s been comfortable in his last two starts rallying from the back of the pack, and he has shown he can weave his way through traffic. But the Derby hasn’t been kind to closers in recent years so he may wind up closer to the pace. Flavien Prat seems to fit him perfectly and is a good judge of pace, so I’m sure he’ll have him in the right spot. That versatility should bode well for the Derby knowing he is dangerous no matter where he is running. As someone who relies on the Thoro-Graph numbers I love his progression of “6 ½” to “4 ½” to “2 ½” to “1 ½,” a pattern that indicates he is ready to peak on Derby Day with a career-best number, and one more similar jump forward and he is going to be very hard to beat.
2– Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
He turned in another sharp drill at Churchill Downs, going five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 working inside a stablemate. His Thoro-Graph pattern is very good, but there have been a half-dozen horses who have already run faster numbers and are also on a very good pattern. What he has going for him is the ability to go to the front or sit off the pace and come home fast. His closing fractions in the Louisiana Derby would be extremely fast for a closer, never mind a horse running just off the pace. According to assistant Scott Blasi the biggest change in him is how much he has matured physically since last fall; mainly how he has grown and filled out. He is a very straightforward colt and a pleasure to work with. He loves his carrots and a good nap. Blasi added that he has gotten more confident with winning. So there is no doubt this is a colt moving forward rapidly. He just needs to maintain everything he has built up in the six weeks between the Louisiana and Kentucky Derby. Normally that would be a long time, which can be attributed to the lack of success of horses coming off the Louisiana Derby. But the change to 1 3/16 miles should help a horse build more of a foundation, and we saw the success of Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie last year. With his high cruising speed and ability to come home fast he looks like the horse to beat.
3– Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
It is very rare to have the top three ranked horses all having run in the same race, but the Risen Star surely looks like the key race of the year, especially now with fifth-place finisher Tawny Port winning Saturday’s Lexington Stakes following a strong second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. We know Smile Happy loves Churchill Downs after his dominating victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and although he has dropped on most Derby rankings after losing his only two starts this year by more than two lengths, he is on strong Thoro-Graph pattern, with his career-best “1 ½”iin the Blue Grass Stakes the same number as the victorious Zandon, despite the winner’s 2 ½-length margin due to his wide trip. He also made an early move to advance into third behind a dangerous speed horse and I don’t believe he wants to be quite that close to the lead. I think in a bigger field with a more contentious pace he can settle in a comfortable position closer to midpack and launch his bid from there. For a horse who was ranked No. 1 most of the year and was the favorite in all the earlier Future Wager pools he should be an enticing price in the Derby and I think the third time could be the charm.
4– Taiba (Tim Yakteen, Gun Runner – Needmore Flattery, by Flatter)
We finally had our first negative Thoro-Graph number with this freakish colt getting a negative-1/2 in the Santa Anita Derby following his exceptional “2” in his career debut. This makes him the fastest horse in the Derby, with the next fastest number being White Abarrio’s “1” in the Florida Derby, which frankly was much faster than expected considering the mediocre final time and pedestrian closing fractions. I really have no idea how to handicap this horse going into a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. He has taken the term “lightly raced” to a new level that could change the face of racing and the Derby if he should win. We are now in danger of having to handicap a field of strangers every year as the number of lifetime starts dwindle to the bare minimum. As I mentioned last week, no one puts a foundation into a young horse better than Baffert. The ones that can handle his training are fast, tough, and fit, which is why he has dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years. Yakteen merely has to keep this colt where he was when Baffert turned him over to him. Of course there is the bounce question, or simply put has he done too much too soon? The fact that he won the Santa Anita Derby so convincingly in such a professional manner, as if he were a hardened veteran, certainly boosts his chances of duplicating such a herculean performance. But as I’ve been saying it will take a freak to do it.
5– Messier (Tim Yakteen, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
With the defections of Forbidden Kingdom, Classic Causeway, Slow Down Andy, and Emmanuel, and the possible defection of Early Voting, the Derby might have lost a good deal of its speed, leaving Messier and Zozos as the two potential frontrunners, along with Summer is Tomorrow, who doesn’t possess that kind of speed. We also have two horses, Epicenter and Simplification, who have won stakes on the lead, but have become more versatile and professional and seem more likely to sit off the pace. For what it’s worth, Messier’s Thoro-Graph number of “1” in the Robert Lewis Stakes has been changed to a “1 ½,” giving him back to back races with that number. Although that number is a tad slower than originally listed, at least it now means he didn’t regress slightly in the Santa Anita Derby. Considering he was coming off a layoff, that “1 ½” was a solid enough number and put him in a good position to make a substantial leap forward in the Kentucky Derby. In short, without him having to do the dirty work chasing a speedball like Forbidden Kingdom, and with the Santa Anita Derby under his belt, I expect to see a stronger horse at Churchill Downs who is going to be a lot tougher to run down than he was at Santa Anita.
6– Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
I have brought up his relatively slow speed figures, going into the Wood Memorial off three consecutive races in the “6” to “6 ½” range, which is well below Derby standards, and his equally slow Brisnet and Beyer figures. Thoro-Graph gave him a far more respectable “2 ¾” in the Wood Memorial while Brisnet went a bit wild with a huge 111 figure. Does that mean his nine-week layoff and excellent works did wonders for him and gave him that razor-sharp edge he needed after a series of workmanlike two-turn races? No one is going into the Derby off a stronger final three-eighths and final eighth than he is with his brilliant :35 2/5 and :11 4/5 closing fractions in the Wood. And I have never used the word brilliant describing him before. Are we about to see a new more exciting Mo Donegal in the Derby? Yes, he had a perfect ground-saving trip in the Wood, but I believe he ran down a very talented horse in Early Voting, who had a two-length at the eighth pole and came home in :12 1/5. Most frontrunners are not going to get beat under those circumstances. And I loved the fact that just as Early Voting was starting to string out the field on the far turn, Mo exhibited a much quicker turn of foot than I’ve ever seen from him on the turn. Unfortunately he loses Joel Rosario, who was riding him for the first time and is committed to Epicenter. Why his regular rider Irad Ortiz stayed in Kentucky to ride a maiden in the Blue Grass is beyond me. I believe this colt is sharper now than he’s ever been and is sitting on a peak performance.
7– White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
Joseph obviously is focusing his attention on sharpness right now. The colt went into the Florida Derby off a three-furlong blowout in :34 4/5 and he zipped three furlongs in bullet :34 2/5 in his first work following the race, fastest of 41 works at the distance, then galloping out a strong five-eighths in 1:00 2/5. Joseph said this work has boosted his confidence in the colt because of the way he went so fast so easily. Jockey Junior Alvarado, who worked him, said it was like his feet weren’t touching the ground. The way the Kentucky Derby is shaping up he should be able to get a great position behind the leaders. One thing about him he is very tactical and always seems to put himself in the right spot. Following a Thoro-Graph jump from a “5” in the Holy Bull to a “1” in the Florida Derby, he should appreciate the five weeks between races. With all the big performances since the Florida Derby it wouldn’t surprise me if gets ignored a bit in the betting and goes off at pretty attractive price. He’s not as flashy as some of those mentioned above and his most recent efforts might get lost, especially with the five-week layoff.
8– Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
I know his Thoro-Graph numbers keep jumping up and down, from a “14” to a “2 ½” to a “5 ½” to a “2 ½” to a “3 ¼,” and he would have to make a fairly big move forward to get into the win range, but his performances have been all over the place and I never know what to expect from him, including where he’s going to be running – on the lead or back in seventh. That’s what makes him so intriguing. We have seen sparks of brilliance from him on the lead and we have seen his ability to close from farther back. His 103 Brisnet speed rating is one of the fastest among the Derby horses, but that was in a Florida-bred maiden race in his second career start last October. The closest he’s come to it was his 99 in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in his 3-year-old debut. His 95 in the Fountain of Youth and 93 in the Florida Derby is heading in the wrong direction, but I still get the feeling there is a huge effort bubbling under the surface waiting to burst out with the right kind of trip. He has shown enough in spurts to indicate that he is capable of great things if he can put it all together. He’s been on the lead when he shouldn’t have been; he’s been far back when he shouldn’t have been; he’s failed to switch leads when he should have; and he’s been in the wrong spot in both his meetings with White Abarrio. One of these days we’re going to see the real Simplification with all the stars aligned perfectly and when we do you’re going to want to be holding some mutual tickets on him.
9– Cyberknife (Brad Cox, Gun Runner – Awesome Flower, by Flower Alley)
You certainly can’t knock his first work at Churchill Downs, a five-furlong drill in 1:00 flat. Cox at one point looked to have no serious Derby contenders and now he could have three in the starting gate. But as good as Zozos and Tawny Port have looked this guy remains the most Derby ready of the three, coming off back-to-back wins and a solid victory in the Arkansas Derby. My big question with him is how good he is. He’s definitely improving and was never in danger of getting beat at Oaklawn, but with Secret Oath faltering in the stretch following an explosive move on the far turn I’m just not sure what he beat or where he fits among the leading contenders. One thing he has going for him is his red-hot sire who came within a neck of having the Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Wood Memorial winners. He will be a pace presence sitting in the second tier right behind the leaders, but he’s going to have to outrun a number of very talented horses from there, and I’m just not sure if he’s quite ready to do that.
10– Charge It (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – I’ll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie)
Is it possible he could be one of the wise-guy horses that people will latch onto come Derby week? I still can’t get too excited over any horse with only three lifetime starts. Yes, I have Taiba ranked high with only two starts, but he at least has the potential to be a freak, and only freaks like Big Brown and Justify have won the Derby with three lifetime starts. Although Charge It wasn’t as smooth or polished in the Florida Derby as he was in his first two starts, he still was able to finish second despite racing greenly, so there is a lot to say about that and what he might accomplish coming off that race. I believe he has tremendous upside and a bright future, but I still can’t get past the three starts at least when it comes to winning. He certainly can hit the board with another step forward. After running a “5” and a “5 ¾” on Thoro-Graph in his first two starts he made a good jump to a “2 ¼” in the Florida Derby, so he’s never run a slow race. In fact, not even the possible Derby favorite Epicenter has run that fast. Now the question is can he make another jump forward in a 20-horse field with so little experience?
11– Tiz the Bomb (Kenny McPeek, Hit It a Bomb – Tiz the Key, by Tiznow)
It is difficult making comparisons of horses on dirt and synthetic surfaces, but you still can’t overlook the fact that he was flattered by Tawny Port’s Lexington victory following his second-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he was no match for Tiz the Bomb. I mentioned last week about the legitimate time of 1:48 3/5 in the Jeff Ruby and the way Tiz the Bomb accelerated instantly on the far turn to quickly put himself in contention. You can’t be too sure how he’s going to handle the kickback in the Derby after his Holy Bull fiasco, but if he does and can demonstrate the same turn of foot he showed in the Jeff Ruby and the explosive stretch run he unleashed in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf then we’re talking about a serious longshot chance in the Derby. He is one horse I am really looking forward to watch train at Churchill Downs. He started off on the right foot with a solid half in :48 2/5. If he dazzles us with the way he handles the Churchill Downs surface then we’re talking about perhaps the most intriguing horse in the field when it comes to betting, as we know he has all tools. He just has to show the Holy Bull was a fluke and that his spectacular maiden victory at Ellis Park last year was a true indication of how he handles the dirt. He looks to be a sure-fire win bet at a big price, and you just hope he is able to use all the weapons we’ve seen from him on grass and synthetic.
12– Crown Pride (Reach the Crown – Emmy’s Pride, by King Kamehameha)
The more I watch the UAE Derby the more I say why not. He ran 1 3/16 miles over a deep slow track that saw a top-class field in the Dubai World Cup run the slowest time (on dirt) in the history of the race, and he raced four-wide into the first turn, was still wide on the second turn, and ran down a tough frontunner despite not changing leads the entire length of the stretch. So I’m not sure if any Derby horse got more out of his final prep than he did. And who is going to doubt the ability of the Japanese horses after last year’s Breeders’ Cup and this year’s Dubai World Cup card, which produced five winners from Japan. Not only is he inbred 3 x 4 to Sunday Silence, his third dam’s sire and dam are both by Arc de Triomphe winners. He had his first work at Churchill Downs, but don’t let the absurdly slow time of 1:18 3/5 for six furlongs fool you. Don’t try to figure out what the Japanese are doing in the morning. I’m sure this was more of an open gallop that the clockers timed. If you leave him out of your bets you’re going to have him hanging over your head.
13– Zozos (Brad Cox, Munnings – Papa’s Forest, by Forestry
He had his second work at Churchill Downs, going five-eighths in 1:00 3/5. That’s two strong works already over the track. As mentioned earlier, the speed horses are dwindling and he now is the possible pacesetter. But he will have an awful lot of brilliant horses right behind him just waiting to take him on. With only three lifetime starts, he likely will have his hands full holding off that many top-class horses. His pedigree is a bit of an enigma. He is by the speed influence Munnings, but he has already shown he can be a force at 1 3/16 miles going against the potential Derby favorite in Epicenter. This colt no doubt has a very bright future, but at this stage of his career it looks like the best he can do is hope to hold on for a piece of it. If for some reason he does get loose on the lead then that will make things a bit more interesting
14– Early Voting (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Amour d’ete, By Tiznow)
I still haven’t been able to touch base with Brown regarding their plans. I have gotten the feeling all year he would prefer to point for the Preakness using the same path as Cloud Computing. As strong a race as he ran in the Wood Memorial, you don’t want to see a Derby horse blow a two-length lead at the eighth pole in his final prep and then go into the Derby with only three career starts, and he won’t be getting any easy leads this time. Also, Brown already is in a great position with Zandon, a horse he has been crazy about since last fall. So there is no use saying anything more on this guy for now until we know whether he’s headed to Churchill Downs. If he is, he likely will move up the Rankings. But until then I am treating him more as a Preakness horse.
15– Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Pioneerof the Nile – Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya)
He is one of those horses who will be between the proverbial rock and a hard place. He is a tactical speed horse who doesn’t quit, but doesn’t have the fire power to outkick the top contenders. He has made great strides with every race and is going to win his share of races, but right now I don’t see a scenario where he can win. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t put a scare in these horses by hanging tough for a long time. After all, he was right there in the Risen Star, beaten only a half-length and a head for second by Smile Happy and Zandon, and was a solid third behind Epicenter and Zozos in the Louisiana Derby. So he has faced the best and hasn’t backed down. His Brisnet figures have increased in his last four starts, and after getting a “10 ½” Thoro-Graph number n his allowance win he leaped to a “3 ½” in the Risen Star and pretty much paired that up with a “3” in the Louisiana Derby. That certainly makes him legitimate.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
A lot to ponder down here. You had to be impressed with TAWNY PORT’S victory in the Lexington Stakes, in which he raced wide all the way and still was able to come away with the victory in only his second dirt race. He has high action and holds his head high, and his future may very well be on the grass, but for now he is an interesting newcomer to the Derby picture if they decide to go in that direction. ETHEREAL ROAD and CALL ME MIDNIGHT failed to finish in the money for the second race in a row and IN DUE TIME ran well to finish third, but is better off not getting in the Derby, as he has yet to run farther than 1 1/16 miles and his best races are down the road. Credit must be given to MAJOR GENERAL who battled gamely in the stretch after setting the pace and put himself in good position for a try at the Preakness.
Rebel Stakes winner UN OJO, who had an excuse in the Arkansas Derby, cutting himself up coming out of the gate, returned to the work tab with an easy five-furlong drill in 1:03 at a training center in Louisiana before leaving for Churchill Downs on Tuesday. The one-eyed gelding surely will have his following, But he has a lot of improving to do even off his Rebel score. He does have a good late closing kick and you never know who is going to come on in the final furlong to pluck second or third in the Derby at a huge price. The other Oaklawn-based horse who will have a strong following is BARBER ROAD and he certainly fits that bill if the pace is hot enough. He is just one step behind right now and needs to make his move a little sooner and get a little more luck in the stretch. He definitely is good enough to be ranked and will be once again if Early Voting defects. No one will be that surprised if he winds up getting a piece of it in the Derby.
MORELLO, who lost all chance in the Wood Memorial at the break, is still listed among the point getters, but I am going to assume they will not run in the Derby. As much as I have loved this colt, I see no reason to pursue the Derby off a race that told you nothing about the horse and did nothing to set him up for a big comeback effort.
Although UAE Derby runner-up SUMMER IS TOMORROW set all the pace and held the lead until the final yards, remember he was coming off six straight sprints and had romped by 8 ¼ lengths going seven furlongs in his previous start at Meydan, so who knows if he can show that kind of speed again with that long a race under him.
1 Mo Donegal 10-1
2 Happy Jack 30-1
3 Epicenter 7/2
4 Summer Is Tomorrow 30-1
5 Smile Happy 20-1
6 Messier 8-1
7 Crown Pride 20-1
8 Charge It 20-1
9 Tiz the Bomb 30-1
10 Zandon 3-1
11 Pioneer of Medina 30-1
12 Taiba 12-1
13 Simplification 20-1
14 Barber Road 30-1
15 White Abarrio 10-1
16 Cyberknife 20-1
17 Classic Causeway 30-1
18 Tawny Port 30-1
19 Zozos 20-1
20 Ethereal Road 30-1
AE Rich Strike
AE Rattle N Roll
Lynda, who are your top 4 runners?
In case anyone is interested, here is the Kentucky Oaks post draw:
Kentucky Oaks field
1 Secret Oath
2 Nostalgic
3 Hidden Connection
4 Nest
5 Goddess of Fire
6 Yuugiri
7 Echo Zulu
8 Venti Valentine
9 Desert Dawn
10 Kathleen O.
11 Cocktail Moments
12 Candy Raid
13 Shahama
14 Turnerloose
AE Beguine
Very competitive field, an upset wouldn’t surprise. Desert Dawn could be a dark horse here.
Un Ojo out, bruised hoof after workout. Ethereal Road in.
Smart. Fresh horse should be a powerhouse in the Preakness.
It is being reported that Early Voting is going to target the Preakness and not the Derby per Chad Brown.
This will move Pioneer of Medina into the 20 slot.
The leaderboard has not yet been updated to reflect this as of yet this evening.
Lynda the 1,000 Guineas didn’t really set the world on fire. None look like Oaks contenders. Tenebrism proved she needs shorter distances. Well done by James Doyle non the less.
On the Kentucky Derby front, Zandon, Charge It, White Albarrio, Epicenter, Mo Donegal interest me the most. Crown Pride, Barber Road, Cyberknife, Taiba also look good but you can’t have half the field. Lol. Who do you fancy at this stage?
Hello Davids,
Still hanging with Zandon, Epicenter and White Albarrio.
I did have Taiba on my short list but just not sure what to make of him now after watching the video (twice) of his last work at Santa Anita before he shipped on Sunday to CHD. And someone who lives in California commented in a FB group I am in that Yakteen said that the SA Anita Derby took a lot out of him. Watched a video of his arrival at CHD and he did give the appearance of making the trip just fine. He is carrying more weight than Baffert’s trainees usually do (just a hint of ribs) which is good.
I do think Crown Pride has a chance, at least hitting the board.
Spent some time Saturday watching all the works posted to date and must say that with the exception of Taiba they all look fit as a fiddle and ready to race. Rather a “handsome” group of colts this year in my opinion.
Weather forecast for the rest of the week in Louisville is not encouraging. As I mentioned earlier, the Spring weather here in the Southern region can be very unpredictable. Rain tonight, severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday; rain Thursday AM followed by thunderstorms in PM and overnight; Friday, rain and thunderstorms likely and 50% chance of rain showers on Saturday and high of 68.
I will be very interested in what Steve has to say in his next column.
Oops, forgot Tiz the Bomb.
Thanks Davids for update on the 1000 Guineas. I did not get around to the race results yesterday.
Congrats to Mr Doyle, that was quite an accomplishment!
On another note, do not know if you follow the Olympics Equestrian events or not but if you do…a very interesting list of changes that France has asked for when the country hosts the 2024 Summer Olympics.
-Let dressage riders compete without spurs
-Ban belly bands
-Ban nosebands designed for tightness (such as crank nosebands)
-Ban twisted bits
-Ban tandem/combination bits
-Ban gag/elevation bits in combination with martingales
-Ban whip use in excess of once per event (twice in warmup)
-No horses must take part who have undergone any type of neurectomy
-Provide enough turnout areas for all horses to have access
-Loose boxes must be at least 4 m on one side
-Antidoping tests up to one month before Olympics
-Antidoping testing labs selected by tendering process
-Strict no-tolerance on even tiny amounts of blood on the horse
-No placing the horse’s nose behind the vertical anywhere on the Olympic grounds.
-Jumping team event before individuals
-Full clinical exams of eventers before competing
-100% of XC obstacles must be frangible
-Modern Pentathlon horses assigned 24 hours before competition
-Modern Pentathlon fences max 110 cm
Not counting Tiz the Bomb’s 2 wins at Turfway Park, Kenny McPeek has had a difficult Prep-season. The final workout of Smile Happy and Tiz the Bomb got botched up. The plan was to train as a team. However, Tiz the Bomb was “rank” under Brian Hernandez and Corey Lanerie aboard Smile Happy chose not to engage Tiz the Bomb. Both horses went 4-furlongs, but it looked a little strange to see Smile Happy so far behind his work-mate. Let’s just say that the work didn’t go as planned. Afterwards, McPeek didn’t seem to be in his usual good mood, but said that everything was fine. The guy is due for some good luck. Corey Lanerie said he was still excited about his chances in The Derby. McPeek made a couple of comments. He said that Tiz the Bomb doesn’t like “kickback” in his face and will race closer to the lead. I don’t like the sound of that. McPeek also said that Smile Happy would be making his 3rd start off a layoff which was his plan all along.
Rich Perloff on TVG said that they would be showing the Derby and Oaks draws tomorrow at 2pm EST. TV3 will be airing it live. I think that’s a local Louisville channel, but I could be wrong. People can also “Stream” it at a couple of different places: courier-journal.com or KentuckyDerby.com . Then we’ll be able to get some morning line odds.
Thanks for the info Tommy! Looking forward to the draw!!
I haven’t watched all the workouts, but I’ve seen quite a few. The one that really caught my eye was Messier. It’s caused me to add him to the third spot on my Derby trifecta ticket.
Can 148 finally be the lucky number for winless post position #17? Maybe, if Epicenter, Zandon, or Smile Happy draw that starting spot.
What an exciting and emotional week this always is for me! Oaks/Derby Week! I do have a question. I love Zandon too, but he has had some gate trouble. Do you think it he gets out of the gate slow he still has a big chance? Also 2 of the horses not on your list that you talk about last…Barber Road and Un Ojo…they have the best stories though! How big of an improvement would they have to make to get up in superfecta? I mean from Un Ojo’s Rebel and Barber Road actually had a rough trip in the Arkansas Derby too, yet he still finished 2nd. And then I read Tawny Port’s owners owned Invisible Ink which his story is still one of my favorites that you ever told!
Also Crown Pride, I have been watching him on the Derby works show in mornings. Either their unique training of him is going to wear him out or build up his stamina, not sure what to think, but he is another I’ve been thinking about. Perhaps he will run big? Your thoughts on his training coming into the race. They work him like every 3 days and have him walking in little circles like a show horse. And for some reason I have this feeling Messier is going to get the lead and hang on at least for 2nd or 3rd…maybe even win. This year is exciting as I really can see several different horses winning the Kentucky Derby depending on their trip/post position…the only one I am convinced has little chance of hitting the board is Summer is Tomorrow.
Sherri, yes, the Japanese do train differently from what we typically see from American trainers.
Rosie Napravnik has posted videos of Crown Pride,. One was from earlier tis past week when he was cantering in a 20 meter or 65 feet in diameter circle. On the days he does not get out on the track, he is exercised in these circles rather than being hand waled around the shed row. The one she posted of him today was his warmup before his work today. He was cantering in a larger circle and doing some flying lead changes. This is routine and it helps him to focus and to think.
Part of Seattle Slew’s training was working cattle and dressage.
As Rosie mentioned also this keeps the horse flexible and trains both sides. I have also noticed they bandage with different colors on each side every morning. Another comment from another announcer on the Morning Work show was when they do work Crown Pride, they turn him loose on the Clubhouse turn. He wants to go faster but responds when the rider slows him down. He also gets cooled down the same way they warm him up. He is scheduled to work again Wednesday morning. He looks great. See where he ends up on the post draw.
Thanks for the additional info!
I think he looks great as well.
Just really high on this colt and think he has a good chance to hit the board.
Christophe Lemaire is his jockey. He has never ridden in the Kentucky Derby but did ride in the BC previously and won the 2012 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Getting him to CHD this far in advance has to be a plus for how he competes on Saturday.
Many years ago I read an article and it was an interview with the longtime farm manager of Claiborne farms at the time, John Sosby. And he was asked what his thoughts were on why Secretariat’s offsprings were not more successful on the racetrack and his answer sticks with me to this day. It went something like this. He said a lot of the trainers were coddling these horses where the owners had spent a lot of money on them for fear of breaking them down and were not training them hard enough to get the best out of them.
So when I read comments about Bob Baffert (BB) and his training methods and the commentator feels that Baffert pushes his horses too hard it puzzles me and it always reminds me of that article with John Sosby. How do you argue with success? BB has won 17 Triple Crown races which is more than the total of all the trainers combined that will be entering horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby. BB knows that for the most part that the horses he is given to train will only be with him 1 to 2 years (they will going to stud or the breeding shed) and he needs to train them fast ( and sometimes long ) to get them race-ready and put the “base” under them so they can perform at their best. As Steve Haskins said ” Nobody does that better than BB” and the jockeys that ride his horses know that to.
How many readers in this blog know that Lauren Lucien gave Secretariat a 1 1/8 workout between the Preakness and Belmont (which he won in world record time)? How many know that between the Preakness and Belmont that Laz Barrera gave Bold Forbes 1 1/2 mile workout (2:43 2/5) and a 1 mile workout (1:50 3/5 out of the gate) and won the Belmont leading the race from start to finish.
I remember a trainer who was preparing a horse to run a race at a 1 1/4 mile. This same horse had just run a race 2 weeks prior and won at 1 1/8 mile and two weeks prior to that had won a race at 7 furlongs (set track record). So the Friday before the 1 1/4 race the trainer works the horse 3 furlongs in 35 sec. , 5 days prior to that he works the horse 1 mile in 1:36 (on a track labeled as “good” ). The horse won the 1 1/4 race in World Record time (which still stands today ) !!! The horse Spectacular Bid and the trainer Buddy Delp. (BTW , I was at Santa Anita that day and witnessed him do it)
One last thing with a quote from Andy Beyer “When you have a Champion you train him like a Champion” !!!
A lot of truth here. They don’t train like that anymore. They promptly get retired at 3.
Just read DRF’s Jon White final derby strikes column. He had been very high on Taiba, but was concerned about him having only 1 work since the SA Derby. He downgraded Taiba to number 3 on his list and upgraded Zandon to his number 2 selection. He is picking Messier for the win in Kentucky. Like Mr Haskin, he really likes the Thorograph progression for Messier and believes he is sitting on a big one.
i agree with Mr White’s assessment especially about Messier I also like Cyberknive and Mo Donegal
Jon White has a Western bias. Messier’s last workout has me adding him to my Derby Trifecta though. But, only in the 3rd position.
Cannot confirm this but an individual who lives in CA posted in a FB group that Tim Yakteen said that the reason Taiba was not putting in anymore works after the one at Santa Anita because the SA Derby wiped the colt out.
Taiba is supposed to arrive at CHD today (Sunday), that is a bit earlier than Baffert has shipped in the past.
It might explain why Taiba put in a less than stellar work (in my opinion and that of others as well).
Guess we will see how he traveled and how he adapts to CHD.
Guess I can give myself a wee pat on the back.
COROEBUS (1) and NATIVE TRAIL (2) finish in the Guineas.
Lol, I did say it was between Native Trail, Corebus, and Luxembourg so I guess I tramped you. Ha Ha No glory really, these three were so obviously the best.
The 1,000 Guineas hopefully goes to Tenebrism. Allez, Tenebrism!!
LOL, fair enough.
Since I am now following International races closely and follow several International FB pages I had already actually checked out the entries as to pedigree, race record, connections etc.
The surprise was that they finished one, two.
Have not yet watched a replay of the race but hope to as soon as it drops on BH or some other website I follow. I do have a FB friend who iives in Pakistan who usually drops the race videos on his FB age.
Congratulations as well to Honeysuckle and connections on her win as well.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if Reach For the Moon were to win the Epsom Derby. Allez, The Queen!!
Davids,
Absolutely, especially since the race is part of her Platinum Jubilee celebration.
So hope her health allows her to attend the race.
I read that she visited her Royal Stud when she spent some time at Sandringham (the one year anniversary of Prince Philip’s death).
Her smile and the look of joy she has on her face when she interacts with her horses tells me that is when she is truly in her element.
There was a lovely photo of her holding the leads of two of her Fell ponies that was taken shortly before her birthday.
Upon her passing do not know who would take over the Royal Stud. The Princess Royal I guess?
I hold Her Majesty the Queen in the highest regard and have the deepest respect for her.
We would be blessed to have a “President” that I could feel the same way about…her dedication, her loyalty to the British citizens and her love of Country, but sadly we do not and have not for many decades.
Speaking of The Queen, I heard today that she loves Jazz and especially Duke Ellington. Apparently, they were quite close. Excellent taste.
My late mother was a big fan of Frank Sinatra who had roots in jazz music. My Mom was born in 1919, older than the Queen b a few years but the same generation.
Jazz (the big band jazz that Duke Ellington made famous) was very popular in the United States during World War ll and in fact (WW ll) had a lot to do with the growth and popularity of jazz.
Interesting that Her Majesty The Queen likes Jazz but then not really. She is very interested in and likes a lot of things that we Americans would never think she would.
Congratulations, Lynda! A pick may not be as good as a wager to some, but always love it when I’m right about a horse race. Kudos to you!
Ms B, thank you.
Unfortunately I live in a state that does not allow pari-mutual betting. It would be nice to make a little money off my “picks”. I sure could use it these days to pay for hay and feed for my little herd of brumbies in this current economy.
If Baffert is doing everything except tightening the girth on his Derby horses, what is the point of the suspension?
Is it like an ejected manager who calls all the shots from the runway runway leading to the dugout?
Yakteen has been on his own since 2004. Yes he spent time with Bob but also Charlie Whittingham.
Condolences to the family, friends, loved ones and associates of twenty year old Callie Witt who passed this morning at 8:AM this morning at Keeneland. She was thrown from the two year old that she was exercising for Joe Sharpe.
Very sad. They brought her pony to the winner’s circle after they won a race later in the day.
That was just awful. She was so young.
For supporters of Zandon: Chad Brown is winning at 33% for the year and Flavien Prat is winning at 28%. Those stats along with the way the horse is working should give you plenty of confidence going into The Derby. Post #20 is Prat’s lucky number in The Derby although I think there was a scratch and he may have broke from #19 with Country House. BTW, Country House never raced again. We hardly knew him.
Messier is still my pick to win the Derby, but if Zandon runs as good as he looks he may lap them!
On the topic of post position draw, anyone know if any of the TV networks will cover it or is the only access via streaming?
Don’t know about the networks but Twinspire is streaming starting at 2 on FB
Running out of things to post about before the post position draw on Monday. Here’s something from J. Keeler Johnson(Keelerman) over at Bloodhorse. In the last 40 years, Grindstone is the only January foal to win The Derby. Who are the January foals in this year’s race? There’s only one and his name is……………………………….Epicenter!!!! Uh, oh! If anybody knows Mattress Mac you better give him a call. Still plenty of time for him to redirect his bets to Zandon. Seriously, Keelerman reasons that being a January foal could be a reason why Epicenter was so good at Fairgrounds this season. The later foals could possibly have caught up to him by the first Saturday in May. Most of the Derby winners in that 40 year period were foaled in February. March had the second most and April comes in third. May has had the second fewest winners with only five. Interesting? Yes. But, if I loved Epicenter, I wouldn’t let this stop me. I will admit that the way that Zandon and Smile Happy have been handled so patiently could have them sitting on their best races on May 7th. Still, I’m going to use Epicenter & Smile Happy as my keys to cashing the Derby trifecta. I am very tempted to replace Epicenter with Zandon as one of my keys. But, I won’t unless Epicenter draws very poorly(1,2,3,18,19,20 or especially the winless #17 post).
Speaking of patient trainers and leaving the polarizing BB out of the conversation, are Chad Brown and Graham Motion the most patient trainers in the country? Maybe.
John Shirreffs..
Matthew W, I agree, John Sheriff’s and I would add Shug McGaughey and Art Sherman.
Graham Motion, great turf trainer plus Animal Kingdom trainer. Chad Brown, patient considering the size of stable and financial pressures that come with it. It’s a lot easier to be patient when you only train a few horses and have an independent means of support.
Bill Mott and Richard Mandella don’t rush their young stock either.
Shirreff’s gotta be #1.
He ticked off the fine folks at NYRA a few years ago by not running enough of his horses stabled at Saratoga during their meet…
TommyMc, I’d guess that there are far fewer foals (and Derby runners) born in January than in February, March, or April. I looked back 12 years and found only 17 Derby runners that were born in January. Epicenter may not win the Derby, but it’s not likely the birth month will be the reason.
In the past 40 years, only one horse born in January (Grindstone) has won the Kentucky Derby. In contrast, there have been 12 Kentucky Derby winners born in February, 14 born in March, eight born in April, and five born in May.
Medina Spirit, April 5
Authentic, May 5 (Derby held in September due to COVID-19)
Country House, May 8
Justify, March 28
Always Dreaming, February 25
Nyquist, March 10
American Pharoah, February 2
California Chrome, February 18
Orb, February 24
I’ll Have Another, April 1
Animal Kingdom, March 20
Super Saver, March 18
Mine That Bird, May 10
Big Brown, April 10
Street Sense, February 23
Barbaro, April 29
Giacomo, February 16
Smarty Jones, February 28
Funny Cide, April 20
War Emblem, February 20
Monarchos, February 9
Fusaichi Pegasus, April 12
Charismatic, March 13
Real Quiet, March 7
Silver Charmer, February 22
Grindstone, January 23
Thunder Gulch, May 23
Go for Gin, April 18
Sea Hero, March 4
Lil E. Tee, March 29
Strike the Gold, March 21
Unbridled, March 5
Sunday Silence, March 25
Winning Colors, March 14
Alysheba, March 3
Ferdinand, March 12
Spend a Buck, May 15
Swale, April 21
Sunny’s Halo, February 11
Gato Del Sol, February 23
Secretariat was born on March 30.
Conclusion: Birth date is irrelevant.
Exactly Foaling season really does not kick off until late February into March and April and then starts to decline in May.
Fewer foals born in January results in statistically fewer foals winning the Derby.
The mares have to be put under lights or given hormones to cycle in February to be bred for a January foal. Harder to get a mare to settle when covered under these conditions and often times these mares have to go back their next cycle to be rebred.
The desire for a January foal is based on the foals having more time to mature than if born in late April or March.
Had two close friends who bred horses (between the two of them, a little over 100 years of experience) and that was always the ultimate wish, a foal born in January. Easier said that done even with ai.
Per Chad Brown interview, (Friday, 4-29), “Early Voting more likely for the Preakness”.
Was not impressed with Taiba, heard he needs company, is smart and lazy by himself, was kicking Bob’s good ones around but today…..a maiden winner…with Wilt Chamberlain up, was being restrained to stay behind. ..
Thanks for the information, Matthew.
I don’t like what they are doing with Taiba. He’s only going to have the one workout since his Santa Anita Derby win before The Derby?
18 days, after going 2 turns first time (a gr1) is not at all odd….the horse just does not have enough TIIME, I thoughthe was having a hard time getting in front of his workmates, whose rider looked bigger than DVD and was trying to keep his mount behind Taiba..
Is that not typical of Baffert, one workout before the race?
I watched the video of his work and thought he was either being lazy (as has been said about him) or was lugging along.
Have seen better workouts this week at CD.
Former jockey Rosie Napravnik shared a video of Crown Pride cantering in 20 meter circles for exercise and then he went down the straight and did a half halt (dressage).
I had read that the Japanese do not exercise their horses in the shed row, they ride them outside for exercise.
The one Derby winner that was trained basic dressage when was racing was Seattle Slew. He also worked cows if you can believe that.
Working in circles at a collected canter has its benefits, teaches the horse to be balanced and work off his hindquarters and use his mind.
“Is that not typical of Baffert, one workout before the race?”
Not typical of Baffert, nor any Derby trainer.
I tend to agree with you. I see that the only way he wins is that Smith holds him back and comes from the clouds with him. I think if he tries stalking with him like in the SA Derby he will not have enough horse at the end… But who knows like Steve says he may be the FREAK of all FREAKS !!!!
1982 Gato del Sol 21.20-1
1992 Lil E. Tee 16.80-1
2002 War Emblem 20.50-1
2012 I’ll Have Another 15.30-1
2022 ?????
Cyberknife 14-1…..
A reasonable possibility.
Are you saying that the deuces are wild, EddieF? I like it. I still can’t believe that Gato del Sol was able to win The Kentucky Derby.
I can never mention Gato Del Sol, The Derby winner in 1982, without remembering his trainer Eddie Gregson who died less than 20 years later in 2000 of an apparent self-inflicted gun-shot wound. Sad. A Derby win should entitle a person to a happy rest of your life.
Gregson was adamant, about not pushing his Derby winner into the Preakness, only two weeks later….
It’s the Noah’s Ark Longshot Angle.
Can Johnny V finish first in Derby#148 for the 3rd year in a row? I think that Messier will outrun Taiba in The Derby. Messier could be my undoing. I’ll probably only use him “underneath” in a trifecta. If at all. It will be interesting to see how this Tim Yakteen/BB thing works out on Oaks & Derby days.
For what it’s worth: I just read an article that says 28 of the last 30 Derby 1st place finishers had at least a BSF of 95 and 19 of the last 22 winners had a Brisnet number of 100 or better. Seven runners qualify on both of those counts: Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Simplification, and Early Voting. My problem is that I am considering Smile Happy who just misses with a BSF of only 94. Tiz the Bomb falls into that same category with a BSF high of only 94. But, I don’t see any speed figures as an exact science. I look at speed figure trends instead. An upward trend always catches my eye. If it weren’t for Mattress Mac betting $3million mostly on Epicenter, I’d be all over him at 9-2 or better. But, I can’t discount Smile Happy simply because he misses the BSF benchmark by a single point. Smile Happy has the same top Brisnet Number of 101 as Epicenter. I know that Smile Happy has that quick turn of foot that I’m looking for and Churchill is “home”. Nine days out from Derby Day, I like Smile Happy best at 12-1 or better. Subject to change pending post positions and Derby week doings. Looking forward to Steve Haskin’s final rankings and reader comments.
Smile Happy at 2 and at 3 to me show he is struggling a bit this year. Not crazy about his works right now either. Not fighting his rider but getting lathered up in the morning works makes me wonder. The Derby is a real circus before the race. Even though Taiba put in an awesome work today how will he handle all the noise and the very large field?
Crown Pride is getting a lot of attention in the morning shows. I would like him a lot better if he had a jockey that spent time racing here more.
Epicenter right now looks great, training well. Post draws are going to make a difference except for a grinder like Mo Donegal. As long as he’s not too far behind he still has that stretch run to turn it on. I want to hear Steve’s thoughts as well.
I like Mo Donegal a little bit and I would like him a lot more on an “off” track. IMO, Mo Donegal has more of a “grinding” turn of foot instead of a “quick” turn of foot. He just keeps coming. Which could play well on a muddy or sloppy surface where quicker horses could be slowed by getting mired in the muck. My concern with “Mo” is that The Wood Memorial was a much improved race for him figure-wise. Steve Haskin has commented several times about him being stuck around a “6” on Thorograph numbers before running a 2 3/4 in The Wood. His Brisnet also jumped to 111 and his BSF to 96. Did “Mo” figure things out after missing a race with a fever? He ran straight and strong in The Wood to wear down perfect-tripper and lone speed Early Voting. Todd Pletcher has him on the right track, but Mo Donegal will have to improve again to win The Derby. Sure, he can. But, he can also “bounce” off of his big Wood performance. A Hall-of-Fame trainer is in his corner which lessens his chances of a “bounce”.
Tim Yakteen said yesterday that Adare Manor will point to The Eight Belles and not The Kentucky Oaks. She did have a workout 4 days ago. Maybe she shows up for The Eight Belles. The Eight Belles is run at 7-furlongs and owner Michael Lund Peterson had another horse named Gamine that had great success at that distance.
Tim Yakteen says today that Adare Manor won’t be going to Churchill Downs at all. I knew something was going on with this horse.
Dortmund now runs with the Heavenly Herd.
Died April 18th in Korea from a small intestine torsion while out on grass pasture at night.
Condolences to all the connections.
I saw that, too, Lynda. He was such a magnificent horse. I preferred him for much of the run up to the Derby that year over American Pharoah. So sad that he died so young.
I too thought he would win the Derby.
A very sad day to hear of his death.
He was deeply loved by the owners of the farm he was standing at in Korea.
They are shocked and devastated by his untimely death.
Sure sounded that way from the release posted on drf. I wish more people realized that many owners love their horses as much as most people love their cats and dogs.
Did the DRF have the photos of hum in Korea. He was so happy and looked so beautiful.
just getting over the loss of Midnight Bourbon and now this.
The Shah still owned him (Dortie) and he said that if he did not thrive in Korea (at stud) he would go and get him and bring him home.
Yes, we do love our horses as much as some people love their cats and dogs (and in my case, my goas as well).
As Gretchen Jackson said when Barbaro died, “Grief is the price we all pay for love”.
Taiba’s work left lead on the turn switched to the right as soon as he straightened away stayed on the right until he started the turn and switched back left for the turn. Very Nice !!!
Splits 12.2, 24.3, 36.2, 100.2, 112.3 out in 126.2
Secret Oath (Arrogate) may challenge the boys again, after the LONGINES Oaks, in the Preakness Stakes according to Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.
See how she does with Espinoza riding
She should do well with Victor. Victor rode Take Charge Brandi for Lucas.
I like Victor other than that abysmal ride on Chrome in the BCC.
Never thought it was his fault that American Pharoah lost the Travers, rather a bad decision by Zayat to run AP in the Travers without a break after the TC.
He is lucky to be alive and back riding after than near fatal accident.
No, it was Victor’s fault !!! It was his only ride of the day and he was not paying attention to the previous races. There was extreme track bias ( the rail was dead ). Frosted on the backstretch kept AP down on the rail all the way around the turn coming into the stretch and when Frosted jockey tried to get him to the middle of the track in the stretch Keen Ice beat him to it. BTW, On that same day in an earlier race, I still think RunHappy would have had the world record for 7 Furlongs if the jockey had kept him in the middle of the track in the stretch instead of dropping him down on the rail. JMO
Zayat was promised additional money in the stud deal with Coolmore for every race that AP won after winning the Triple Crown, a deal that ended up being worth $65 million.
Baffert did not want to run AP in the Travers but Zayat insisted. After the race Baffert and Zayat pointed fingers at each other and Baffert and then Victor was given some heat.
Zayat is NOT one of the racing greats, despite owning one of the greatest horses of the last 20 years.
You nailed it Ms Blacktype!
The day before the Travers American Pharoah galloped before the public, ten thousand fans and he went too fast—is what Bob said beat him..
Matthew W, yes, I recall Mr Baffert saying that.
There is no disgrace in a horse losing a race. It has happened to the best of them, including Secretariat.
My favorite exception: Hoist The Flag
What might have been…
Classic case of a jockey getting out foxed in the BCC
Crown Pride (JPN) works an impressive half-mile in :46.40 over a fast track.
Yes, Crown Pride does impress but Zandon just oozes as the horse to beat. Charge It comes across as the imposing type that will make his presence felt. Mo Donegal and White Abarrio also gave a good impression.
Davids, Zandon has been on my list of the top 4 to win the Derby for quite awhile now. Epicenter, Taiba and White Abarrio are the other 3.
Yes, I am following Crown Pride with a great deal of interest and I think he has a good chance to finish higher than the three previous contenders from Japan (sixth, ninth, and 14th).
I am impressed by Crown Pride’s pedigree and his physical appearance and how he seems to have taken to the track at CD.
Certainly do not feel that I am a traitor (against American bred and trained Derby contenders) because I like him and hope that no one thinks that of me.
I just appreciate beautiful, well bred and talented horses regardless of the country they are bred, born and trained in.
Japan is very serious about making their mark on dirt racing.
The North Farm (the broodmare operation that comes under the Shaddai Stallion Station) has been steadily purchasing graded stakes winning mares at the auctions here in the United States for awhile. For example, at the Keeneland sale in November 2021, the North Farm spent over 12.8 million in acquiring Swiss Skydiver (4.7 million), Medina Spirit’s dam (Mongolia Changa, by Brilliant Speed out of Bridled by Unbridled), Princess Noor for 2,9 million and in foal to Into Mischief (Zedan Racing’s first successful racehorse); Simply Ravishing (by Laoban out of the More Than ready mare Four Wishes; Heavensmynikki (by Majestic Warrior out of Floral Park by Forest Wildcat and in foal to Into Mischief and is Secretariat: 4S X 5S X 5D X 5D and Dayoutoftheoffice (by Into Mischief and out of Gottahaveadream by Indian Charlie). Shaddai purchased Carina Mia (By Malibu Moon out of Miss Simpatia (by Southern Halo) and in foal to Uncle Mo. All of these mares with the exception of Mongolian Changa are graded stakes dirt winners and Swiss Skydiver of course won the Preakness.
Yes, Lynda, the Japanese are looking for outcrosses that will work with their predominant Halo, Northern Dancer, and to a lesser degree Mr. Prospector line stallions. Moreover, further douses of US blood will add more speed for both their turf and dirt runners.
Obviously, winning the Saudi Cup, Dubai World Cup, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Kentucky Derby are desired jewels of the dirt surfaces.
Per Chad B, Early Voting still in New York and will train up there for the Preakness.
Should give Pioneer of Medina a slot in the Derby.
Hey Linda are you CERTAIN Early Voting is out of the Derby???…
…y……
Yeah can we confirm that info from Chad Brown, because just this morning he said they wouldn’t decide until Monday whether to run in the derby or not?
This is the direct quote from Brown:
“Right now the horse is still in New York preparing for the Preakness,” Brown said of Early Voting. “If the complexion of the Derby field changes a certain way before the race, it’s not out of the question that I go ahead and ship him over to Churchill and enter him in the Derby. But right now we’re planning on running in the Preakness.”
He continued, “We have the points [to get in the Derby]. The horse is doing well. We have the flexibility to keep it as an option. No one is forcing us to make a decision earlier than we want. I don’t want to make a ‘final’ decision and then change your mind. That’s worse than delaying. Things happen. Horses drop out, the pace scenario could change, things like that. Seth [Klarman] and I want to handle it intelligently. We want the flexibility. But if everything stays the way it is right now with the field, I plan on running the horse in the Preakness.”
At no time during the interview did Brown indicate which horse he was referring to as a defection that would result in Early Voting running in the Derby.
Thanks Lynda!
You are welcome Bruce.
I’m still trying to figure out the TV schedule for Oaks and Derby Days. Wouldn’t it be great if we had a one stop shop for viewing all the races on both days? NBCSN is no more. Apparently, some of the races will be shown on USA Network, some on NBC. It gets complicated. No word on where TVG fits in. IMO, this is one of the biggest problems with the sport. Fans shouldn’t have to hop around all over the place to watch all the races on the biggest days. USA, NBC, Stream some races, and maybe a little TVG. It’s irritating. USA Network????? I thought that was the place to go to watch “Law and Order” reruns.
This is all I have been able to find:
Friday, May 6th, 2022 1 p.m. to 5 p.m.
5 p.m. to 6 p.m. Oaks 148 Undercard – Live Coverage Peacock
USA Network
Saturday, May 7, 2022 12-2:30 p.m. Derby 148 – Live Coverage USA Network
Saturday, May 7, 2022 2:30-7:30 p.m. Derby 148 – Live Coverage (Post Time: 6:57 pm ET) NBC
N.B: All times and dates are subject to change and All times are ET.
I think we have USA as part of cable. If so I can live stream to my computer. If not, I will be out of luck.
TVG requires a betting account which I cannot set up.
I totally agree with you…a channel that airs the cards for both days from start to finish the way ABC Sports did.
Very frustrating for those of us who do not have “smart phones”.
Even with a TVG betting account ..they don’t have rights to broadcast some races, I don’t have cable, and sometimes in Derby Day I’m out in the cold, too…..most of the races aren’t on the network station but instead are on a cable subsidiary …
MatthewW, my husband has cable TV and if he is working Saturday I can sneak into his “man cave” and watch, LOL.
His TV is very old and requires two remotes to work and it is very easy to mess up the cable connection., so I have to be very cautious. He is a TV junkie whereas I am not.
Since he has cable, I can probably use the “watchTVeverywhere” app and live stream to my desktop computer.
I truly miss the “good old days” when ABC sports started broadcasting at the crack of dawn on Derby Day and broadcast all the races and had some great commentary and back stories.
They don’t consider horse racing much of a sport for television anymore. I just watch on Twinspires.
Laura, thanks. Will give that a try. I did watch one race on Twin Spires a few years ago.
Any thoughts on the works so far at Churchill? The announcers seem to like what they have seen from Epicenter and Crown Pride among others. Interview with Pletcher tomorrow morning.
Only watched Crown Pride today. Did not get around to ECenter.
I’ve put a stopwatch on White Abarrio in the Florida Derby. I’ve timed the entire race 10 times and the average time was 1:50.56. The official time was 1:50.64. The difficult timing is for the final eighth. In 10 tries, the average final furlong was 13.43. The official final furlong time was 14.09. !!!! Is there anyone with some TIME on his/her hands to confirm my findings?
Do my eyes count? Ha ha After a while, you kinda guess what the time is.
So what did your eyes see? 😉
Closer to 13.43 than 14.09
OK! That settles it!!!!!
I wouldn’t trust my eyes just now though, had a flu injection yesterday and they must have given me the real virus. I’m aching all over.
Oh no! You should have asked for the flu VACCINE, not the flu injection. 😉
Hope you feel better soon. At least before May 7.
23.67 47.24 110.68 136.55 150.64 per Trakus
Those are the same fractions and final time as in the “official” Equibase chart.
Prevalence is on a roll after 2 straight wins. Is he ready to challenge Jackie’s Warrior at 7-furlongs in The Churchill Downs Stakes?
I love Prevelence, Jackie’s Warrior is way better! But I’ll be rooting for Prevelence, and his beautiful head..
Pappacap might have found a good spot in The Pat Day Mile against Jack Christopher coming off of a layoff and 3 former BB horses running for 2 different trainers.
Love Pappacap!
Steve, do we know who will be aboard Mo Donegal? If Rosario stays on Epicenter as expected and Ortiz stays with Chad Brown and Early Voting, Mo is looking for a rider. I think they should be proactive and get Mario Gutierrez. He has guided two for O’Neill to the Roses and would be a great fit. Super Mario’s agent needs to get on the phone and plant that seed.
Irad is riding Mo Donegal…..
Better than Jose but I’d still go with Mario, his resume for this race is better than most. It’s a race and a track that favors certain jockeys who get it. Calvin comes to mind, Espinoza, Desormeaux, Velasquez, and Rosario.
Steve, I see that Charge It paired the last 2 races, did they change the Thoro on him recently?
Just some random info to chew on while we are in a lull.
Post 17 – The best finish in 41 starts from 17 was a second place by Forty Niner in 1988
Since the points system, from post 17:
2021 Highly Motivated finished ninth
2020 Tiz The Law – finished second – three scratches so TTL did not start from 17
2019 Roadster – finished fifteenth
2018 Solomini – finished tenth
2017 Fast and Accurate finished third
2016 Mor Spirit finished tenth
2015 Far Right finished fifteenth
2014 Cany Boy finished thirteenth
2013 Frac Daddy finished sixteenth
There is a potential this year for the same stallion to be the sire of both the Derby and the Oaks winners. In the 147 years of Derby-Oaks history, the feat has been accomplished exactly four times.
The last time was 1966 when Native Dancer sired Kauai King and Native Street
Gun Runner (Taiba, Cyberknife, Echo Zulu and Shotgunhottie) and Upstart (Zandon and Kathleen O) lead the way.
History of the Derby Field: The field has been limited to 20 starters each year since 1975. This is the largest field for any single race in America.
The 1974 Derby featured the most starters (23), while the 1892 and 1905 Derby races had the fewest starters (three).
There have been 21 occasions in which the field size was comprised of 20 or more horses, and 63 occasions in which it was made up of 15 or more starters.
Gate 5 has produced the most winners.
Derby winners color: Including 2021 winner Mandaloun (who placed first after Medina Spirit’s disqualification), 56 bay horses have won the garland of roses.
Chestnut is the next most common coat color, with 48 winners, while 31 dark bay/brown horses have finished first in the Run for the Roses, and just eight gray/roan horses have earned victories.
Kentucky tops the list as the state with the most Derby winners bred and followed by six in Florida, and four each came from Virginia, California, and Tennessee, However in recent history, most of the winners were trained in California.
Biggest longshot was 1913, 91-1 longshot Donerail
Prep races winners: The Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park has had 24 runners go on to win the Derby, one more than the number from the Blue Grass S. (G2) at Keeneland. Twenty-three Derby winners also ran in the Champagne S. (G1) at Belmont, while the Hopeful S. (G1) at Saratoga and Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct have each had 20 runners triumph in the Run for the Roses.
If Mike Smith wins the Derby this year at age 56, he will have surpassed Bill Shoemaker who was 54 when he won on Ferdinand.
Steve, do you like anything in the English 2,000 Guineas this Saturday? The three favored colts – Native Trail, Coroebus, Luxembourg – seem to have it between them but I’m not too excited.
The 1,000 Guineas on Sunday has more interest, for me anyway, I like Tenebrism for the win and Mise En Scene as an outside chance. Warms the blood!!
My 2 cents worth. 2000 – Native Trail and Coroebus
1000 – Tenebrism (Caravaggio) and Homeless Songs (Frankel).
Lynda, there has been quire a lot of chatter that Luxembourg has the capacity to actually win the English Triple Crown races so it would be fun if Luxembourg were to win the 2,000 Guineas and see how he goes at Epsom.
Davids, Luxembourg certainly has the pedigree to do so. I am just now starting to follow these type races with much more scrutiny than in the past. A lot of horses to learn about and trainers and of course the races. I always appreciate your input! Thanks
On another note, the National Weather Service is predicting wetter than normal conditions the next two weeks and Louisville is in the same region as we are here. So good weather for the Derby might be iffy. There is anywhere from 25 to 35% chance of rain the next ten days which does not sound like much but with daytime temps in the mid 80’s the pop up thunderstorms are always possible
Always have mixed feeling about rain this time of year. We need rain here now (for the pasture grass) but my farmer friends’ fields are almost ready to cut and bale. I stopped by of their farms last week and the rye grass is up to my waist (almost).
There is a saying around here, “No hay before Mother’s Day and this year Mother’s Day is on the 8th of May.
That’s interesting Lynda, climate change is impacting everywhere. I remember living in Melbourne 30 years ago you could never grow banana trees here but coming back to Melbourne 2 years ago you see banana trees everywhere in peoples’ gardens.
Over the pond, the lads on “At the Races” were suggesting it was going to be fine for the next fortnight so the Guineas races should by on fast going. “At the Races” is on YouTube if you haven’t watched it before.
Fingers crossed the Kentucky Derby has a fine day, there is nothing worse than a wet Derby Day.
The derby pace should be legit now that Classic Causeway is back in. Hope Early Voting decides to run as well.
I’m with you, the more front runners the better.
I’m hoping to see a Derby in which the winner finishes first on the first Saturday in May–a rather basic concept that hasn’t happened since 2018.
Classic Causeway back in and Pioneer of Medina back out on the outside looking in. I still think that Pioneer of Medina will make it in. Still a week away from the draws for both The Oaks and Derby.
Brian Lynch said that he wanted to run Classic Causeway in the Pat Day Mile, but after a real good work at Churchill he and the owners changed their minds. I’ll bet that the owners changed Brian Lynch’s mind for him. I have mixed feelings. I’m happy that the horse will get to strut his stuff in The Derby and I think he would have done real well in the Pat Day Mile.
Manny Franco picks up the mount on Zozos for Brad Cox giving Franco a chance to improve on his 2nd place finish aboard Tiz the Law at 3-5 odds a year and a half ago.
CC has zero chance. Hope he doesn’t get hurt running as fast as he can into first turn.
He will no more likely be hurt than any other entry.
Jeff, favs u love so much has ‘zero chance’.
Julien Leparoux picks up the mount on Classic Causeway with Irad Ortiz already committed to Mo Donegal. Which is interesting considering that Classic Causeway is a speed horse and Leparoux is one of the least aggressive riders in the country. Maybe we can expect Classic Causeway to sit just behind the leaders. Which could serve him well.
‘Causeway is going to need a new jockey also.
Newgrange(remember him?) has now been moved to Tim Yakteen and is listed as a “possible” along with Doppelganger for the Pat Day Mile. Has Tim Yakteen ever run a horse at Churchill? It looks like he’ll be shipping quite a few for Oaks/Derby Days.
I would have liked Classic Causeway’s chances of beating both Newgrange and Doppelganger in the Pat Day Mile.
How ironic would it be if Power of Medina, who is now in with 25 points after the withdrawal of Morello, wins the Derby?
Hi, Lynda. If POM is indeed the last horse to qualify (and he probably won’t be), he has the short history of the point system to overcome. Only one “last horse in” has hit the board: Instilled Regard was 4th in 2018 at odds of 85-1. The others finished from 8th to 17th place. All were, of course, longshots.
Hey EddieR, I was actually thinking in terms of his name, Power of Medina and last year’s winner Medina Spirit.
Power of Medina was bred by International Equities Holdings, Inc whose principle is Oussama Aboughazale.
Aboughazale is a very close personal friend of Amr Zedan who considers Aboughazale to be an “uncle”.
Aboughazale also has a racing stable in addition to his breeding operation, Sumaya US Stable.
Power of Medina is a homebred, trained by Todd Pletcher.
This is the colt’s bio as given on the Kentucky Derby website:
Sumaya U.S. Stable, who were on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in 2017 with Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Malagacy, are back five years later with Risen Star S. (G2) fourth-place finisher Pioneer of Medina. A $485,000 RNA at the Keeneland September sale, Pioneer of Medina is by American Pharoah’s sire Pioneer of the Nile out of Lights of Medina, a stakes-winning Eskendereya mare. The family is Chilean; his third dam is Medina Sidonia (by Winning, a son of Nijinsky), a dual Grade 1 winner in Chile up to a mile. If he makes it to Churchill Downs for the Derby, he has prospects of staying 1 1/4 miles.
Additionally, Power of Medina’s work today earned him a bullet:
“While trainer Todd Pletcher will meet with owner Oussama Aboughazale before making a final decision, Sumaya U.S. Stable’s Pioneer of Medina appears to have punched his Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) ticket with a strong workout April 25 at Churchill Downs.
“I think you can throw in all the trainer cliches you want,” Pletcher said after the son of Pioneerof the Nile breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5. “Very good work. Well executed. Good finish. Strong gallop out. Seemed like he was handling everything the way you would hope.”
OBS Sales
The workout was the fastest of eight at the distance on the fast main track Monday at Churchill.” (taken from Blood Horse article today).
I have not watched the works from today as they had not yet dropped on you tube earlier this morning when I checked.
Granted, Power of Medina’s chances (based on stats and history) of winning the Derby would be very slim. However, as I always say, “on any given Saturday, any horse can win a race, including the Derby”.
Very thorough and complete background piece on POM, Lynda. I think this horse has a better chance than most of the lesser lights to hit the board. He finished not far behind Epicenter and Zozos in the Lousiana Derby. I have him in my top 12.
I see Classic Causeway is back IN the Derby, leaving Pioneer of Medina on the outside looking in. I do not care for CC’s chances at all.
Ms Blactype, that is interesting. Had not seen that. I knew the last word was that the connections were still mulling over the decision.
He has more chance prevailing compared w/ some.
Ms Blactype, thank you!
Once we have some idea of the final field (after the final prep races) I generally do a somewhat in depth study of the entries and their connections, especially new or relatively unknow connections.
I enjoy doing it and sometimes I find some little nugget of information.
Sounds like you are doing some research for Steve on the side! I myself am doing a deep dive into the female lines of some of the Derby favorites. The pedigree that’s most impressed me is Zandon, whose 8th (I think) dam is Boudoir II, the line that gave us Majestic Prince, Flower Bowl, His Majesty, Graustark, and Gallant Bloom — all pretty far back, I’ll admit, but some of my favorite horses from the 1960s. Wasn’t initially too impressed with Simplification, until I realized his second dam is a full sister to Ashado!
LOL. (about Steve).
Thanks for the bit about Boudoir II, a name I didn’t know, although from some of the earlier pieces by Steve Haskins, I certainly recognize the descendants. I have liked Zandon from early on, tho now it escapes me why, but after watching how he handled traffic in his last prep race, I will be rooting for him. Good practice for the stampede of the Derby. He doesn’t have an especially eye-catching pretty tail ;-), but he sure is a pretty boy.
I’ll have to take a look at Zandon’s tail, Linda! Hadn’t noticed whether it was pretty or not. Sure will be if he shows it to the rest of the field in the stretch on Derby day.
I think Brown favors the Euro cuts, like his mentor Bobby Frankel, not too long and cut straight.
Just my thoughts on the starting gate.
Personally I feel that the 20 horse field is too many for the Derby considering the width of the track itself
Do not recall where I read it but multiple people have commented the same. (Yes, I do know that there is a history of 20 horse fields for the Derby from years ago)
This new starting gate will only be used for the Derby. These horses will never run in a field this large again (in all probability).
Just personal opinion, but I consider the break to be the most important factor followed by track conditions, especially mud.
Some of these colts (because they are so lightly raced) have never experienced the amount of kickback they will receive if the track is slop as it was for the 2018 race that Justify won. A total of 3 inches of rain had fallen that day.
Statistically speaking, a horse can win from any gate (other than the dreaded 17). That gate must have a hex on it.
The new gate (that I agree is safer) will not resolve that crush of horses coming over and there will still be bumper cars at the start.
And because these colts are so lightly raced these days, one really never knows how the horse will react to that situation no matter how well trained they are or who trains them.
When I watch the Derby every year, I actually cringe when the gates open, knowing that a wall of horses is going to be coming over towards the rail with their jockeys trying to get them settled in a good position according to their running style.
2018 I think was one of the worst for that and so was 2015 in my recent memory. I actually felt sorry for both the horses and the jockeys in 2018 and it is only by the grace of the racing gods that there were no serious injuries or a serious accident.
The 2017 Derby was dreadful, with Irish War Cry causing a chain reaction at the break.
Ironic, then they the 2018 winner was the most lightly raced…
Yes, Matthew W and EddieF, I know.
Justify broke great and Mike got him in great position. Luckily Justify was not phased by the track conditions. Mike and Justify were as clean as a whistle after the race.
Many of the other horses were not so fortunate, the crush at the start almost resulted in Mendelssohn going down when he was bumped and there were several near misses clipping heels at the start. It was indeed “bumper cars”.
Ryan Moore made a wise decision to back Mendy off.
Steve wrote a great column after the race about all the kickback the horses took in that slop and the injuries. The horses that were wearing blinkers were running blind there was so much mud on the blinkers. The other horses and jockeys were basically “drowning” in kickback.
The 2017 Derby had a difficult start for several horses. “The most striking aspect of the start was the shocking refusal of Thunder Snow to run. When the gates flew open Thunder Snow inexplicably begin to buck and writhe, refusing to proceed and immediately getting pulled up.[19] The start for several other horses was disastrous due to a “chain reaction” caused by Irish War Cry who, in the 17th position, ducked to the inside at the start, pushing over number 16 Tapwrit, and as a result, the 15 horse, McCracken, bumped heavily with number 14, Classic Empire. “Classic Empire really got clobbered”, said his trainer Mark Casse. “The track is impossible. Our horse ran extremely well, considering.” The track was Wet Sealed with several puddles of standing water.
Rainy conditions wreck the race— too many rainy days in past 10 years, we are due for a great Derby Day—last year was the best Derby stretch run in past 50 years, in my opinion!We found out that was a good crop, and this year may be the same, or better!
MatthewW, I agree
So far the ten day outlook for Louisville is lucking good. But that could all change!
“Lucking”….Linda”You might be lucky and not know it”….from the movie “Let it Ride” . ..
Track conditions and experienced jockeys for me. Most of these jockeys will never race in a field that large again unless they pick up another Derby ride.
You are correct in that even though some of these colts have raced on off tracks, some haven’t. I did see Crown Pride will be using the same jockey as the UAE Derby? Not entirely sure on that. If so and the guy just flies in right before the race not sure that will work out well. Borel was able to squeeze Mine That Bird through on the rail. Others have to run wide to make that charge down the stretch.
I’ve been trying to analyze the fairly new 20-horse starting gate that Churchill uses for The Derby. It’s only been used for 2 Derbies. The September of 2020 Derby(delayed by Covid) was a 15-horse Derby that was dominated by the outside post positions: 15, 14, 7, & 13. But, remember that the 3 best horses were Authentic(15), Tiz the Law(14), and Honor A P(13). Last year, the 2021 Derby with 19 horses was dominated by horses in the middle of the gate: 8, 7, 9, & 14. The extreme post positions(1,2,3,17, 18,19) finished no better than 9th. With only 2 KDs being run out of that new 20-horse starting gate, it’s too little data to form conclusive opinions. But, with the longshot Mr. Big News(#7) finishing 3rd in 2020 to go along with 7, 8, & 9 sweeping the trifecta in 2021, I’d say that just inside the middle of the gate is off to a pretty good start.
TommyMc, just personal opinion but I do not think enough Derbys have been started using the new gate to get some sort of feel for the impact it has. As you state, only been one with a full field of 20.
Below are the stats on the winners by gate going back many years:
Gate 1(Eight previous winners)
Gate 2(Seven previous winners)
Gate 3(Five previous winners)
Gate 4(Five previous winners)
Gate 5 (10 previous winners)
Gate 6(Two previous winners)
Gate 7(Seven previous winners)
Gate 8(Eight previous winners)
Gate 9 (Four previous winners)
Gate 10(Nine previous winners)
Gate 11(Two previous winners)
Gate 12(Three previous winners)
Gate 13(Five previous winners)
Gate 14(Two previous winners)
Gate 15(Three previous winners)
Gate 16(Five previous winners)
Gate 17(Zero previous winners)
Gate 18(Two previous winners)
Gate 19(One previous winners)
Gate 20(One previous winners): Country House
Hello Lynda, you are a great contributor/poster, however, I believe Big Brown is the one the stats refer to out of gate 20.
Thank you!
Big Brown is correct for 20. Country House broke from 18.
Great info, Lynda King. That #17 post looks troublesome to say the least. Or, is it due? As far as the #1 post goes, I would like to see the stat on only when there are 15 or more horses running. It has to be intimidating for a young horse when that “crush” of 19 other horses starts moving over to him going into that first turn.
1986, field was 16.
1963, field was 9
1956, field was 17
1952, field was 16
1948, field was 6 and run in slop
1940, field was 8
1938, field was 10
1937, field was 20
Only one year, 1937, had a field of 20. That is the year War Admiral won the Triple Crown.
In 1956, Needles has the distinction of being the first Florida bred Derby winner and he won the Belmont stakes.
1952 winner, Hill Gail was by Bull Lea, ridden by Eddie Arcaro and was a Calumet Farm home bred.
1986 winner, Ferdinand, was ridden by Bill Shoemaker. He won the Breeder’s Cup in 1987 and was 1987 Older Male and HOY.
I did not watch the 86 Derby. I was hiatus from horse racing for about 20 years because of the tragic end to Ruffian’s life ( was watching that match race).
Guess we are overdue for a winner from the one,
I do agree that the wall of horses coming over on the one horse in 20 horse field in today’s Derby races does have an impact.
If time permits I will research the 17 gate.
1937 20 horses, and they started on the turn! War Admiral was ridden like a Quarter Horse by Kuntzinger, and he was able to get him back off the bit, and he rode that little horse all the way! Great ride, by Man O War’s rider..
Since 2013, Posts 5 to 15 are where you want your horse to be — whether two gates or one.
Post Position Winners (since the use of a starting gate in 1930):
1 8: Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
2 7: Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
3 5: Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
4 5: Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941)
5 10: Always Dreaming (2017); California Chrome (2014); Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931)
6 2: Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957)
7 7: Justify (2018); Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930)
8 9: Medina Spirit (2021); Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934)
9 4: Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951)
10 9: Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935)
11 2: Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933)
12 3: Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945) 13 4: Nyquist (2016) Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932)
14 2: Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950)
15 6: Authentic (2020); American Pharoah (2015); Orb (2013); Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984)
16 4: Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995)
17 0
18 2: Country House (2019); Gato Del Sol (1982)
19 1: I’ll Have Another (2012)
20 1: Big Brown (2008)
13 4: Nyquist (2016) Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932) is on same line as 12.
I do all all this on Word and then copy and paste into the blog.
2012 I was all over I’ll Have Another, was told the #19 post was 0-fer, and I said it’s still better than one of the three inside draws, and Mario ended up giving him a perfect ride, he kept his cool!
“Starting gates have been in use for racing at Churchill Downs since 1930, with the first closed electronically-operated 14-stall starting gate introduced in 1941. A six-stall “auxiliary starting gate” addition, which was attached to the 14-horse starting gate, was first used in 1942 and 54 times for the Kentucky Derby within that period, including each of the last 22 years.”
” The origination of a 20-stall starting gate eliminates the wide gap between post position No. 14 in the standard gate and No. 15 in the auxiliary gate.”
“We believe that a new custom-made, 20-stall starting gate will deliver a clean start for all horses and enhance safety for horses and riders in the Kentucky Derby,” said Mike Ziegler, Executive Director of Racing for Churchill Downs Incorporated. “We’re thrilled to partner with Australia’s Steriline Racing to supply this new starting gate at Churchill Downs.”
“The new contiguous 20-stall starting gate, which is due to arrive in early April, is 65-feet wide and will fit comfortably within the 120-foot space on the racetrack at the quarter-mile pole for the start of the Kentucky Derby.”
Believe it or not I loved Crown Prides work today. Really motoring after the wire
Nice work.
Steve, so good to hear someone else saw what I did!
Just love this colt, everything about him.
I agree with you Steve, Crown Pride did impress. Tawny Port just looks like a turf runner, on dirt. Zandon sparkled at Keeneland, Epicenter didn’t give the best impression but works can be deceptive.
Derby alphabet handicappers will be all over White Abarrio at juicy double-digit odds.
EddieF, what is an “alphabet handicapper”?
Yes, I meant to ask the same question. Ha ha
Handicapping based on the first letter of a Derby runner’s name. In Derby history, runners whose names begins with “W” (70 of them) have won 10% of the time — the last winner was War Emblem. “Z” runners are 1 for 7. But that’s a small sample size and there are two Z horses in the 2022 Derby. This is serious handicapping, not for the faint of heart.
Would S be the favorite or the shortest odds then?
Davids, the best initial is “A” with a 12% win rate (99 starters). But there aren’t any “A” horses this year. “S” has hit at a 9% clip from 209 (!) starters, but there are three of them this year. That’s why White Abarrio is the best bet. I’ve put a lot of thought into this. 😉
I went by “The ABCs of the Kentucky Derby: Which letters win it most?” Which came from HRN in 2018.
Their answer was: “The answer to the above question is: Horses with names beginning with the letter “S” have been victorious on 19 occasions.” They have a full list if you want to check it out.
I believe that the win percentage is a better indicator. But even if you consider the raw numbers, you’d have to split the chances of an “S” win three ways (Smile Happy, Simplification, Summer Is Tomorrow). Of course, the dartboard method can also be as effective.
I admire Mattress Mac. He seems like a nice man. I’m sure that he is an honorable man. But, just because he said that he would PROBABLY be putting most of his $3million on Epicenter, it could be subject to change. My impression is that he wants to put that money on the race favorite. Which could be Epicenter. But, after Zandon’s big workout that everyone seems to be raving about, I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes favored. I’ve read lots of comments at various places that say they are going with Zandon. “Best laid plans” can change fast if your horse draws the #1,#2, or #20 post position. My point is that “players” should wait as long as possible on Derby Day to make their wagers to make sure they get the odds that they want. Just look at what happened last year with Essential Quality. EQ would have been 7-2 or 4-1 if Mac hadn’t lowered the boom. I think EQ went off as the 5-2 favorite. Don’t forget that Mac’s bankroll is bigger this year. I think he bet $1.5 – $2million last year.
I’ve been thinking about what post positions would be acceptable for the 5 horses that I’m still considering to be my “Derby Horse”. If Mo Donegal draws the #1 or #2, it wouldn’t bother me. He’s going to drop back anyway and make a big run in the stretch. If he draws #20, I’ll have to drop him. Now, I know what some people are thinking: look at what happened to Known Agenda when he drew the rail. I think that Mo Donegal is a better horse with a bigger finish. Not a “quick” turn of foot, but a “grinding” turn of foot. If Epicenter draws #1, #2, or #20, he becomes a “bet against” for me. The last thing I want is a pace presser all bottled up and trapped inside or carried real wide into the turn. Likewise, Smile Happy, Zandon, and Tiz the Bomb would be best served with a post draw between #5 and #15. The Kentucky Derby is all about “the trip”.
# 1, 2 is deal breaker.
TommyMc, you must be the biggest KY Derby fan in America. Keep it up! Looks like there will be fair odds on any horse that’s not the favorite. Maybe this year we can forget about finding a “value” horse and just bet the one we like (except the favorite if less than 4-1).
I am a big fan, EddieF. I would rank Oaks/Derby days as my third most favorite horseracing event of the year. The Breeders Cup would be second and Belmont Day has become my favorite horseracing day of the year. NYRA has changed racing secretaries. I think that the previous guy retired or moved on. He did a great job of building up Belmont Day as well as Travers Day at Saratoga. I’m hopeful that the NYRA can keep the positive momentum going. But, yes, I am a big Derby fan. In fact, I have a standard bet that I make every year on the Kentucky Derby that is by far the biggest bet I will make all year. I won’t say what that “hair-raising” amount is, but to give you an idea, my Preakness bet is 50% less and my Belmont bet is 50% less than the Preakness bet. The rest of the year I never bet more that $45 on a single horse. Not even on Breeders Cup races. Mostly, my game is multi-race wagers. Good luck in this year’s Derby. You have a great positive attitude.
Thanks, TommyMc. Your financial support of the industry far exceeds my own. 🙂 You’ve identified my favorite days also. I would add the Arc, which is the only foreign race I’m certain to watch every year. Saratoga and Travers Day are heaven on earth!
Mac is a good individual,including all he’s done regarding good will work. Disgrace ‘pro’ slammed him as if he were garbage couple weeks ago.
With the new Australian made gate: post 1. is now like the old post 3. while post 20. is more like post 17. With that said, posts 1. & 2. are still problematic.
Mike Smith s interviewed on YouTube regarding the new gate. One of his concerns was that it is narrower and doesn’t have much room for the starter. Makes it easier to loose an iron omit out of the gate. He did say it is much fairer.
Yes, Kenny, that is true. Especially, for the starter, I’ve seen how tight it is compared to the old gate.
Morello now officially out of the Derby with a hoof issue. Pioneer of Medina moves into the 20th spot on the list. I think that brings Todd Pletcher up to 3 starters in the race. Steve Asmussen is down to only one starter, but it’s a good one.
BREAKING NEWS–
Its likely that Brad Cox will have 3 runners in the Ky Derby.
As of now I think he will run 1, 2.
As of now, I know which one I think will win.
I wont need to box all of them- because I believe one of them will be down the track.
I hope all horses now on the road the KY Derby remains sound.
I just watched Zandon’s workout at Keeneland and he looked awesome. His gallop out was monster. Chad has him sitting on go. Hope for a good 2 weeks for Zandon and a solid PP draw. Finally a clean break out of the gate for Flavian Prat ti get Zandon in a good spot going into the first turn, hopefully around midpack where he can sit and make his furious run down the long CD Stretch to try and claim the roses
Going w/ Zandon.
Only tiny little observation was that Zandon went a bit wide on the turn. Like to see them hug that curve a bit closer. Otherwise, I agree..great workout!
Agree Linda.
Zandon at Keeneland and Tiz The Bomb both posted works today in preparation for the KY Derby. Zandon worked super according to Chad Brown and galloped out well. Zandon seems poised for a strong effort after his impressive win in the Bluegrass. Zandon should be around 6-1 after Mattress Mack plunks down 3M on Epicenter. Glad to lick up Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1. Tiz I also bet in the KDFW to win and boxed him with Zandon and the field. Watching the replay of the Jeff Ruby shows Tiz explosive kick in the stretch. He seems to be handling CD well so he could be a contender at double digit odds. Zandon is the one who peaks my interest and IMO he has a big chance ti wear the roses
Just watched Tiz the Bomb and Smile Happy’s tandem work this morning. I’m still learning to evaluate workouts, but it looked like Tiz was working harder than Smile Happy, who seemed to be doing the 5f quite easily. They recorded times that were roughly identical. What do some of you veteran workout watchers think?
I t looked like Tiz went 2/5 faster, I only saw the tones…but wanted to say Zandon looked fantastic, he looks black, I’ve called him skinny but that might just be cuz he is so sleek, but Cyberknife has size! Just a big corn fed brute of a chestnut, and oh by the way he dusted his workmates and was really cruising after the wire, I already liked him now I love him, the question is is he good enough, cuz that horse is peaking..
I don’t plan to bet any part of my $200 Derby moolah on Zandon, not after watching three weeks of deep closer dominated two turn dirt races! Besides I already have a fiver on him in futures, at around 30-1, and a tenner on him at 18-1….as of right now I LOVE Cyberknife and Messier..
NEVER was I sold on him.
There is a mystery developing around the Tim Yakteen/BB runner Adare Manor. Early yesterday morning, I read a story about how the Kentucky Oaks was going to have over-flow entries and would have 14 runners and another 4 on the also-eligible list. It also mentioned that Adare Manor would be one of the 4 on the also-eligible list. I didn’t think too much about it at the time and left to make my rounds and take care of my business. Well, I ran into some trouble and had some down time to think about what I had read in the morning. It didn’t make any sense. Adare Manor had earned 40-points in her disappointing 2nd place finish at 3-5 odds in The Santa Anita Oaks. That 40-points should have put her securely in The Oaks. The post that I read also mentioned that the connections of Adare Manor were not necessarily pointing to The Kentucky Oaks. HUH? They might instead run in The Eight Belles. HUH? By the time I got home, I couldn’t find that story anywhere. It had to be on DRF or HRN. But, it was gone. Probably removed for inaccuracies. People might remember that Adare Manor was not nominated for The Ky Oaks and would have had to be supplemented by last Saturday. Is it possible that with all the commotion with the trainer change someone forgot to get that late entry in on time. Maybe the owners balked at paying a supplemental fee. IDK. What I do know is that Adare Manor in no longer listed on the Churchill Oaks website. I verified that on a second website.
Looking back at Adare Manor’s shocking defeat at 3-5 odds in The Santa Anita Oaks, maybe she needed the race. It had been 2 months since her blowout win in The Las Virgenes. Maybe the stretch-out to a mile and a sixteenth was her undoing. Her 2 previous blowout wins were both at a mile, but I expected her to thrive at the longer distances. Especially, against a group that I consider weak out in California. No offense. I don’t think that Johnny V’s ride that day will make his career highlight reel. I think Adare Manor was done in by a tactic used by BB himself many times over the years. Ain’t Easy and Desert Dawn were both trained by Phil D’Amato. Ain’t Easy under Juan Hernandez beat Adare Manor to the lead and pressed pretty quick fractions. They went 1:10.56 for 6-furlongs. Which is fast on that Santa Anita track these days. All the while Umberto Rispoli on Desert Dawn was sitting in the catbird seat racing in 3rd. When they straightened out in the stretch, Desert Dawn came up to challenge and was able to persevere even with Adare Manor fighting back valiantly in defeat. Desert Dawn was 14-1 and the longest priced horse in the 5-horse field that day.
I guess it will all be cleared up a week from Monday when they draw both The Kentucky Oaks and The Derby on May 2nd at 2pm EST.
Desert Dawn had outwirked Ain’t Easy by more than a length prior to the SA Oaks, so she ran a big race— I heard a week ago Yakteen saying they had not yet decided on her next start….
“Her”, being Adare Manor I should proofread my postings better!
Desert Dawn did take some money that day being bet down to 14-1 from her ML 20-1. Sometimes, I need to be reminded that it’s horseracing and anything can happen. I hope Desert Dawn runs back in The Oaks. If Adare Manor doesn’t run, I’d be pulling for her. With Echo Zulu in the race, Desert Dawn can be assured of pace to chase. In my experience, Churchill Downs can be counted on to “soup up” their track for The Derby. Speed usually dominates on the undercard on Derby Day. Throw in Churchill’s new turf course and who knows what to expect? BTW, if Adare Manor shows up in The Eight Belles, I’d be confident of singling her in all muti-race wagers. I agree with your comment that she should be much tighter next out.
Tommy Mc, the article is still up on the DRF website. I just looked at it.
“There also is an also-eligibles list of as many as four fillies, and Huffman said inquiries from the connections of bubble horses continue to come in. Those alternates, in order of preference, are Shotgun Hottie, Adare Manor, Ain’t Easy, and Beguine.”
You are correct, she is not showing on the Oaks leaderboard.
However the cut off was 50 points, not 40.
Shotgun Hottie and Ain’t Easy are showing on the Oaks points page but Bequine is not, nor is Adare Manor. Perhaps Bequine has withdrawn as well.
Thanks. I’ll look again.
You are 100% correct. The Oaks cutoff sits at 50-points right now. I just assumed that 40-points would get a horse into The Oaks. I was wrong. I never bothered to check the point totals. I do still have my doubts that we will see Adare Manor on May 6th or 7th at all. Whatever, it’s going to be a terrific 2 days of racing. All we need is some good weather.
Yes, good weather, safe racing for all and NO DRAMA!!! (LOL)
In early Feb I thought the races by Messier and Adare Manor—15 and 13 length wins were “statement” races, by a trainer that knew he was about to lose them both—9 weeks and a new barn later, and they both suffer defeat—moving into fast paces….Methinks both will be tighter and tougher, in Louisville–come Oaks, and Derby!
I agree with your first premise but not so sure about the second. February might have been their high points.
Davids, I tend to agree with you that both Messier and Adare Manor may have already peaked.
On another note, if anyone thinks that Mr Baffert and Mr Yakteen are not having “face time”, they are living in the Peter Pan and Easter Bunny World in my opinion. Not that it is “illegal” to do so. I did not read that it would be on either the 2 year suspension or the 90 day suspension. Granted, I have no legalize experience. The horses could not be entered under Mr Baffert’s name for the races, he would not be able to access the backside or the shed rows and he had to take down his signage at Santa Anita. and would have to reapply for his trainer’s license at Santa Anita. Someone who works on the backside at Santa Anita posted on FB that most of Mr Baffert’s horses never left their stalls at Santa Anita.
I am not for sure that Mr Baffert thought back in February that he was going to lose Messier and Adare Manor in February. He was still going through all of his appeals processes.
Yes Lynda, modern technology has skipped over 20th century rules of engagement. Not just racing.
Nah. As I mentioned before I believe that Messier’s second place performance in the Santa Anita Derby would have won either the Blue Grass or Wood the same day.
Messier’s Beyer was 99…second only to Taiba’s 102.
John Goggin, cannot agree with you. Big difference in racing in a 6 horse card (and if you drop Forbidden Kingdom who dropped back, a 5 horse card with two of the horses basically serving as fillers and the Blue Grass and the Wood.
Just going by Beyers and other speed figures to decide the winner of the Derby is, in my opinion, tricky.
Anything can happen on Derby Day, as the recent renewals prove.
On any given Saturday, a horse that we least suspect would win, does and there is historical stats to that effect.
Who would have thought that Country House (granted by default) would cross the finish line in second place. Going into the race he was at number 17 on the leaderboard with points (50) and final odds 65 to 1?
Taiba amused us with a rare and thrilling occurrence for a 3-year-old. Winning a Grade 1 Stakes in a second start could be expected of 2-year-old horses. It happened with American Pharoah who won the Del Mar Futurity in his second start after not so auspicious debut.
Many of us vividly remember how Good Magic flirted with a G1 score in his second start (2nd in the Champagne) as a maiden to just be crowned 2-year-old champion with an easy first win in the BC Juvenile.
But Taiba’s feat makes him inhabit a different continuum.
Before the Santa Anita Derby I saw Messier as the king of the hill, the Canadian horse destined to carry Northern Dancer’s torch.
So, you can imagine my shock when Taiba overpowered Messier the last 90 meters of the Santa Anita Derby. My disbelief roused the Magic Realism that runs spontaneously in all South American souls. Supernatural events need magical explanations…and this was my burst of imagination:
The racing gods decided that Amr Zedan had already suffered enough Derby tribulations and made Medina Spirit come through Taiba in a mystic communion with a Jockey with his very initials and wearing his colors. In my stupor I suddenly evoked Ralph Waldo Emerson reminding us that “Nature always wears the colors of the spirit.”
But taking the realism part of Magic Realism, I found myself conceding a touch grumpily that Taiba was the better horse and Mike Smith won the day with a perfectly astute ride.
Great horses don’t need excuses…but I could not help but invent pretexts for Messier not “being the same”. I did not like, for instance, that his first workout following the Robert B. Lewis was 22 days after that impressive win. Then I blamed a less than perfect start and JV overlooking the menace of Taiba by tackling a false threat in Forbiden Kingdom.
I am expecting Messier and John Velazquez to be better prepared to tackle Taiba now that the element of surprise is not in play anymore. But Taiba could just validate his superb class in the Derby … at least confidence is on his side.
I have read impudent authors stating that faith is the most overrated virtue. My faith in Messier was overrated but Amr Zedan’s faith in Taiba was misjudged… my consolation is that there is always another fight to test faith…!
Amr Zedan should be commended for giving his horse the chance to prove himself as a Derby horse and to have the chance to make it to the history books.
The same experts who advised Zedan against running his horse in the Santa Anita Derby will be now stating that Taiba lacks the needed maturity to meet the challenges of the Kentucky Derby. As Billy Joel reminds us “you may be right you may be wrong”…
The only race you inexorably lose is the one you don’t run.
We shall see…
I hope you are correct, about Taiba—I don’t want that colt to falter badly, he is being given a huge task—The Santa Anita Derby—like the Arkansas Derby had a strong pace, and I think Messier will benefit from it— Cyberknife, as well, they tried a reset, in the Fairgrounds allowance race which he aced! After dumping his rider in the post parade he ran into strong mid race pace, then held sway—and I love him as my longshot! Not betting Taiba but hope for good race, by the short legged dynamo!
Zedan has built a fruitful partnership with Gary Young to acquire good horses. It takes a great balance of expertise and luck to come up with horses like Taiba. They just procured an Uncle Mo colt, who clocked 9.4, for $ 2,300,000 in the ongoing OBS.
Among the million-dollar horses nominated for the Triple Crown only Corniche (1.5 million-dollar tag) and Taiba (for 1.7 million dollars) are the only ones validating their prices.
Taiba was among 20 horses breezing 10.1 in the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-olds in training. In that very auction Bletchley Park was the only one breezing 9.4 which made Michael Vincent Magnier paid 2.6 million-dollar to purchase him. BTW he is still a maiden and will remain so for some time it seems.
The other most expensive horses nominated to the Derby are Vinco (1.5 million dollars) and Palm Island (1.3 million dollars). These are also maiden horses with no big aspirations whatsoever.
It seems like money does not buy good luck…!
It sounds like you’re rubbing it in. None of them have done much yet.
That might all depend on who you are… Because it seems for their breeders, they’ve done well enough indeed.
Your perspective sounds narrow for a game with all it’s variations and the results from ways to gamble .
I was saying none of the high priced 3 yo’s have paid off yet, including Taiba, I wasn’t criticizing the breeders, plus the buyers bought based on 2 yo workouts and appearance, not pedigree.
You don’t think Taiba has paid off yet, on his $1.7 million purchase price? I’ll bet he’s insured for more, and at auction would fetch a lot more…
It’s a precarious game! Gosh, Nelson…we all (on this site) could maybe pool our moolah and buy Bletchly Park, if he goes in a claimer…..he just might!
A Godolphin maiden won yesterday, after several starts. Aussie–something, looked good cost millions!
Nelson are you a writer? That was an interesting read. Impressive.
I am now thanks to your kind review … LOL
Nelson, did you study German Expressionism? German magischer Realismus (‘magical realism’) first came to prominence around 1925 by the German art critic Franz Roh. Magischer Realismus was expressed to describe the painterly style/movement – Neue Sachlichkeit (‘New Objectivity’). Otto Dix, Max Beckmann, George Grosz et al providing an alternative to expressionism.
The horrors of World War 1 could not be fully transmuted by Expressionism.
Wiener schnitzel!
Hi Davids.
Many believe that Magical Realism was pioneered by Nikolai Gogol with “The Nose” published in 1836.
More than a student of literary techniques I was just a kid growing in Latin America hearing all kind of folkloric stories that amusingly blended fantasy with reality. Then as we get acquainted with the work of Carpentier, Cortazar, Marquez, Gallegos and many others Latin American authors we realize that their fantasies were enchantingly rooted in the realities of the region.
You can say that my dreams are short stories of Magic Realism .. LOL
I am not that familiar with the literature of European Expressionism apart from being mesmerized by Franz Kafka’s “The Metamorphosis”…
Nelson, are you aware of the works by Diego Rivera and Freda Kahlo? Arguably, their more influential art is centered around Magic Realism/realism/surrealism. Somewhat hard to classify. You may have seen the film, Frida?
Yes Davids… I know about Frida Kahlo and her love muralist Diego Rivera.
And there is a fine line dividing Surrealism and Magic Realism… it takes a whole blog dedicated to discuss their differences and similarities.
German Expressionism art strongly influenced the film noir genre that became so popular in the 40’s and 50’s. It was an influence as well on American film makers such as Alfred Hitchcock and Stanley Kubrick.
Wonderful, beautifully written post on Messier and Taiba, Nelson. Horses that can inspire a post like this are worthy of respect, no matter where they finish on May 7.
Thanks Ms Blacktype. I really appreciate your kind words…!
You always provide an entertaining and informative read, Nelson. All I can say about Taiba is that, if he wins on May 7, I will give up handicapping all future Kentucky Derbies. But, then again, I probably should have done the same for the past 10 years.
I’m not betting a dime on Taiba, but if he wins I’ll be blown away—because I will have seen something I never saw— Eddie you know stats, of the big Derby preps, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass, Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby , Louisiana Derby—has there ever been a winner that was making their second career start? And 1:48 2/5, mind you…..
Matthew, I don’t know the answer. I’d be surprised if a horse won a big Derby prep off a single maiden race before Taiba did it. I think he’s a special horse, but he’ll be seriously overbet. Like you, my money will go elsewhere. Exactly where is yet to be determined.
Today, 4-22, Simplification worked a swift 5 furlongs in 59.42, (4/17) at GP. Hopefully, Sano will ship to Churchill soon, to give him at least one work over that track. I have complete confidence that Antonio Sano will have Simplification in top form to compete in the Derby. Simplification’s Cinderella story will culminate with a victory in the Kentucky Derby. 🙂
That was a nice work. Just watched it myself, Bill!
Mo Donegal doesn’t exactly jump out of the gate. If Irad Ortiz could get him to bolt out of the gate the way he gets Golden Pal and Classic Causeway to leave the gate, it would improve his chances greatly. He looked greatly improved in The Wood Memorial and he ran straight and strong in the stretch. While a “bounce” off of a career best is always possible, I have a feeling that Todd Pletcher will have him moving forward again in The Derby. Another good colt at likely fair odds.
See if they do gate schooling soon. Jockey can only do so much.
Steve has said the following about Messier. (let me know if I left anything out Steve)
“Baffert has been raving about this colt for a long time”
“He is bred to easily handle a mile and a quarter”
“I expect to see a stronger horse at Churchill Downs who is going to be a lot tougher to run down than he was at Santa Anita.”
He’ll probably be what, 5th choice behind Epicenter, Zandon, Taiba, Mo Donegal.
8-1 or higher is a gift right?
I’m seriously contemplating making Messier my Win/Place bet.
I love his Thoro-Graph pattern
I love that you love his Thorograph pattern!
Me too!
Is it weird that I imagined a cherry being put on top of a sundae lol.
* Will the $15,000 Barber Road finish ahead of the $1,700,000 Taiba?
* Will Pioneerof the Nile have his second Derby winner with longshot Tawny Port?
* Will 2nd-place Derby finisher Empire Maker follow Pioneerof the Nile as a revenge sire (with his son Messier)?
* Will Florida-bred Simplification take back the roses denied to the late Florida-bred Medina Spirit?
1. I have no idea.
2. No.
3. Yes.
4. No.
Your first question is fascinating.
1) don’t know, both are worth more than their price tags…
2)Highly doubtful..
3) a pretty good chance..
4) not out of it but a longshot..
EddieF – the main issue I’m considering with Taiba is how he reacts to shipping. I don’t believe he’ll bounce. Taiba had 21 recorded workouts prior to ever running in a race. If he would’ve bounced, The SA Derby was the likely spot to do it, IMO.
1. Possibly it’s a 20 horse field 2. No, the sting from Churchill’s sand will stop Tawny Port 3. Odds are against Messier 4. Definitely, no!!
This was a fun read — both your questions, Eddie, and the answers from all the usual suspects here. I’ll take a stab at it:
1. Yes (unless Taiba wins, of course!)
2. No. Tawny is a toss for me.
3. I doubt it.
4. I’d love to see him win, but right now he’s a B for me. A’s are: Zandon, Epicenter, Mo Donegal, Crown Prince, and Taiba. B’s are: Messier, Simplification. C’s (for exotics) are: Barber Road, Pioneer of Medina, Zozos.
Great replies! Maybe I’ll come up with a new batch of propositions next week. 🙂
Zandon, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat, is sure to be heavily bet in The Derby. Maybe only the Mattress Mac money on Epicenter keeps Zandon from going favored. I’m thinking Zandon will go off at somewhere around 5-1. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he wins. He won’t be my top pick because I’ve decided to shop for better odds, but I will certainly find a way to work him into my plays. Chad Brown is 0 for 6 in The Derby, finishing 2nd with Good Magic in 2018. Brown has always been more likely to win The Old Forester. The race before The Derby.
Zandon will have to pass too many horses in the Derby in my view to win it. Agree with that Brown won’t win the Derby, great turf trainer. If Epicenter, Tiaba, and Messier break good and aren’t crushed in first turn, I don’t see Zandon running them all down.
By the way, Asmussen is 0 – 23. Brown’s 0 – 6 looks a lot better than 0 – 23.
Asmussen has been a trainer quite a bit longer than Brown, I believe. I think they’re both good trainers and it’s puzzling especially for Asmussen, that they haven’t won a Derby yet….seems they’re both due, but the Derby gods will decide that,
With both trainers, they don’t push young colts like say Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher. Which colts last longer? Easy answer.
D. Wayne Lukas was 0 for 12 before Winning Colors won.
Max Hirsch was 0 for 7 before Bold Venture won.
Shug McGaughey was 0 for 6 before Orb won.
Bobby Frankel 0-fer …it’s 20 horses….Chad is like Bobby, turf and older horses his Forte, but he knows how to train up a horse, so does Steve A…..
I cannot understand tossing Steve Asmussen horses, what about Tim Yakteen? He has a couple in there ….Brad Cox? Still has not finished FIRST, Stats! Steve 0 for 23 and so you TOSS Epicenter? I will try to beat him, but cannot “toss” Epicenter!
Exactly, Brown has won a Preakness Stakes nonetheless…luck, exponentially, impacts on results the more a field increases.
Wayne Lukas ushered in the Baffert, Pletcher style format – huge team to start with that’s whittled down to a few that perform around May – June. Not for long keeping. Granted, that’s a generalization but close enough.
Zandon and Mo Donegal: two closers to respect.
Many of us foresaw Zandon needing just a good break to defeat odds-on favorite Smile Happy in the Blue Grass but a thrilling surprise was his powerful finish. Zandon was so commanding pulling off the last 100 meters that the favorite looked like an ordinary horse. More distance would have resulted in greater separation from the field.
Zandon is now one of the strongest closers in the Derby with a good chance to turn the tables on Epicenter. The son of Upstart is the only one proven at overcoming racing adversity in all his (four) races. Conventional wisdom may lead one to believe he would have traffic hiccups in the Derby but, who knows, he might at last have a lucky clean trip for his date with Derby glory.
As for Mo Donegal, it was the strength and flair of Joel Rosario just what he needed to win the Wood Memorial over a very gallant Early Voting. It is not very likely that the son of Uncle Mo will have such a rail-scraping-dream trip in the Derby… unless Irad Ortiz Jr. decides to replicate Calvin Borel’s tactics.
There won’t be an honest pace granted in the Derby if Early Voting skips it living Zozos as the only true pacesetter; but Zandon and Mo Donegal won their 100 points despite not facing a particular hot pace.
Zandon and Mo Donegal are closers with the best projection in the Derby since Orb and Exaggerator.
If you compile Steve’s writings about Zandon since last October till now you will get a compelling book masterfully depicting the gravitas of his breeder, his particular attractive traits as a young horse, his pedigree, his qualities as an athlete and his development to be a top 3-year-old.
It would be a wild success for Steve if Zandon should win the Derby.
We shall see…
Hi, Nelson. Excellent analysis of the Derby scenario, particularly as it relates to Zandon. It is difficult to see past Zandon and, in my mind, Epicenter. I see Mo Donegal as a solid contender, but also as a likely bounce candidate if history is a guide. Zandon will, of course, need at least a decent early pace to utilize his late kick to its maximum advantage. I see Messier as a possible, if not probable early leader. Zozos will be close to him, I’m sure. Not far behind will be several stalkers, pre-eminently 2022’s Justify-like Taiba, Epicenter, and Simplification. Cyberknife, Smile Happy, and Charge It will also be vying for trouble-free early positions.
Keep in mind that only the Santa Anita Derby and the Arkansas Derby had 1/2-mile fractions similar to what we could expect in the Ky Derby. So we know that the winners of those races, and also the place horses, could stand up to a Derby pace. What is clear is that no matter which horse you like, the win odds will be decent. I’m praying for all current contenders to stay healthy and give us what could be a thrilling 2 minutes.
Thanks EddieF.
I see Summer Is Tomorrow and Zozos leading the bunch going to the first turn.
Below is a comparison of the split times clocked by Summer is Tomorrow and Life is Good for comparison purposes:
Life is Good ………….24.48 ……..48.03…….1:11.41…..1:36.74
Summer is Tomorrow 24.72……..47.63…….1:11.81…..1:37.90
the japanese based horse was faster at the 1/2 and 3/4 miles… to me is good enough to be in the Derby mix at those posts.
*correction: Summer is Tomorrow is a UAE based horse…
and he was not faster than Life is Good at the 3/8 post only logged a faster 1/2 mile…
You’re right, Nelson. SIT is certain to be an early factor. The more the merrier!
Life Is Good was ridden wrongly, in the Dubai World Cup….On TURF you try to save, and save, if you are in FRONT…but on DIRT you try to get away from the field, on a front runner, because it’s much harder to make up ground on dirt, than turf—Irad milked his mount, and when they turned for home the other contenders were RIGHT THERE—LIFE is Good is FAST, but not fast in the stretch..
Hey Nelson Maan
Your last sentence says it all, “It would be a wild success for Steve if Zandon should win the Derby”. It would come as no surprise if Zandon won the Derby, he checks a lot of boxes. Hats off to Mr. Haskin for spotting him early in his Derby Weekly Rankings.
In the KY Derby Futures Wager, Pool 2, Zandon closed at a very generous 25-1, needless to say he’ll be one of the favorites at post time. Several other top Derby contenders closed at enticing odds in Pool 2; Epicenter 24-1, Mo Donegal 23-1, Simplification 43-1 and White Abarrio 171-1. I boxed my Derby pick, Simplification, with those four in individual $2.00 exacta wagers. Actually, I boxed Simplification with the entire Pool 2 field, but the return on the other entrants, in the Derby, will not pay as much as those four.
Best case scenario for me, Simplification wins the Derby and White Abarrio comes in 2nd. With two $100.00 win bets on Simplification, one at 65-1, and the other at 43-1, my payout would be just over $18,000.00
Fingers crossed.
Hi Bill Dawson. Thanks for the reply.
I understand that you missed Zandon in the futures?
Anyways, good luck with Simplification… I am sure Antonio Sano will have him in top shape for the Derby.
You’re welcome, Nelson Maan
Actually, I didn’t miss Zandon in my futures. I have him boxed with Simplification in one of my $2.00 dollar exacta wagers.
In the event Zandon wins the Derby, and Simplification comes in 2nd, I would collect $2,282.00. If the order of finish were reversed, I would collect $2,527.00. Obvioiusly, a win by Simplification would provide a huge return, (based on my two $100.00 dollar win bets, and boxed exacta bets).
I’m hoping Jose Ortiz has Simplification setting mid-pack, and makes one late run going into the far turn, like he did in the FOY.
Good luck to you as well, Nelson.
Nelson, I do hope you’re wrong and Flavian Prat is not forced to adopt a ‘closer’ style to win the Derby. Chad Brown may need ‘smelling salts’ if he sees Zandon trailing the field in the Kentucky Derby, as happened in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Misfortune at the start is not the best way to adapt to a style of running. I’m hoping Zandon gets a good post, start in the Kentucky Derby so that he doesn’t have to weave through traffic of 17 or so runners. That’s almost an impossible feat these days with the way the race is managed up front.
Flavian say ‘certainement pas’ in adopting a closer style of running to win the roses. Zandon is much better close up, than straggling behind. Allez, Zandon!!
I agree, Davids. I hope he can be at least in the first half of the field early on, maybe 6-8 lengths behind a quick pace.
Yes, that is the worry. Zandon has to be able to get out of the gate fast, then find position early, otherwise he’ll be shuffled back to no man’s land and stuck there trying to dig himself out that hole.
Moreover, a good post position might be more dependent for Zandon than most of the other favored colts.
The other top closer, Mo Donegal, has a history of poor starts. He’ll need a clean break.
Yes agree. With Mo Donegal even more so as he ‘appears’ to perform better as a closer, flashing home late.
On YouTube – “Kentucky Derby 148:Chad Brown on Zandon, Early Voting,” Brown confirms that Zandon has the natural speed to get good position early on. Let’s hope he does exactly that.
In his three 9f races, Zandon has been no further back than 5.5 lengths after a half mile — albeit in relatively slow fractions.
Yes, exactly. Calling Zandon a ‘closer’ is a misnomer. Does every horse that fumbles the start and is left behind or is shuffled back to the rear by sheer mishap become a ‘closer’ by default. Silly.
Flavien not Flavian. Autocorrections are a nuisance but necessary.
Flavien Prat has been quite effective in his four participations.
2017 Battle of Midway 3rd
2018 Solomini 10th
2019 Country House 1st
2021 Hot Rod Charlie 2nd
I would be just content if he rides the same race as Country House…
Oui, Nelson, Prat a une excellente chance de gagner avec Zandon.
Baguette soufflé vinaigrette.
Don’t forget crepes suzette!
Cheese Soufflé anytime, anywhere.
When Doug O’Neill sends a horse to The Kentucky Derby, he means business. With only 7 starters in the race, he has 2 winners and a 2nd place finish. Wow! A 28% winning percentage. I still don’t like Happy Jack in this race and would consider it a miracle if he was able to hit the board. No offense.
I was surprised to see that Brad Cox has only had 2 starters in the race with a win and a 3rd. Can that be true?
It’s been mentioned many times that Steve Asmussen is 0 for 23 in The Derby. I think that it’s the toughest race in The United States to win. I wouldn’t hold his record against him. Asmussen always has his horses ready to run in the biggest races. In fact, I was very close to choosing Epicenter as my “Derby horse”. Three things bug me and have caused me to change my mind. The 6 weeks between his Louisiana Derby win and his start in the Derby. I feel horrible about the sudden death of Midnight Bourbon. I have to admit that this Mattress Mac thing has gotten into my head. Mac’s $3million in bets will impact the betting pool and a player will be taking less value on Epicenter than she/he should. Besides all that, who wants to go down the tubes on the favorite in a possible 20-horse Kentucky Derby? I’m not saying Epicenter won’t be on my “Exotic” wagers.
Todd Pletcher has 2 wins with his whopping 59 starters to go along with two 2nds and four 3rds. TP’s record is somewhat clouded by the fact that he starts multiple horses most of the time in The Kentucky Derby. Interestingly, both of Pletcher’s Derby wins, Super Saver in 2010 & Always Dreaming in 2017, were accomplished over “off” tracks. Todd Pletcher was 0 for 24 in The Derby before Super Saver’s win. Mo Donegal has a win over Zandon even though most observers think that he should have been DQ’d that day. “Mo” loses the best jockey in the country who had a previous commitment on Epicenter. Irad Ortiz had ridden Mo Donegal and is a certainly a top-5 jockey. The bigger question is if “Mo” can improve again off of his Wood Memorial victory where he ran straight and strong in the stretch? I think he can. His 96 BSF puts in within range of Epicenter and the 2 Yakteen/BB runners. Steve Haskin points out that White Abarrio and Taiba are the 2 fastest horses based on Thorograph numbers. Both of those horses have questions of their own. Taiba entering The Derby off only 2 starts. Can White Abarrio transfer his South Florida form to Louisville?
TommyMc – the mutual pools for the Derby year in and year out are incredible to see. Last year the total WPS pool was near $70 million. By comparison the Breeders Cup Classic was $9.2 million. I would assume the exotics pool for the Derby outweighs the WPS pool. Upwards of over $150 million total money bet on a single race demonstrates the popularity of the Derby.
When RA ran, said he would never win one. So 0-23…… no surprise!
“Kentucky Derby Morning Works” will begin Monday and air on kentuckyderby.com/works, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
Almost as good as Steve’s Derby Rankings.
LOL
Well you don’t do the trackside morning show anymore. We gotta take what we can get!
Hopefully, Rosie Napravnik is back again this year.
We will pour over Steve’s comments on the morning works just as we pour over the weekly blog and comments!
After being on Epicenter forever, I’ve changed my mind.
3rd time through, an even closer look, and I’ve moved Tiz the Bomb to #1. Mo Donegal #2.
For Tiz the Bomb (in the Jeff Ruby)… I see wide on both turns, ran really fast 2nd & 3rd call (he actually moved too early), solid 4th call, and cruised home decent last call, no whip. If he waits a little longer to make his move in the derby, he should be strong in the stretch.
For Mo Donegal… to me he’s a freight train, best closing kick of any horse. But because he always gets out of the gate slow, and he takes a long time to get going again when he gets his momentum stopped (see far turn of the Holy Bull), he’s too risky in a 20 horse field. That said, if he gets a clean trip, I expect him to be right there on the wire.
This could be one of those years where the favorites aren’t coming into the derby as strong as they appear. That’s what my handicapping says and I have to trust that.
That’s a good angle …two powerful finishers I like them both..
I’ll take your stamp of approval Matthew. Seen you call a few longshots. 🙂
I asked a teacher once for a tip before a test and he said….Always go with your first choice. I found the same to be true with the horses.
Hi Blake, normally I would agree, but I’ve seen new details with each round of analysis so I feel the latest is most accurate. And I’ve been pretty on with the preps this year, except in the two races where I tried to force it and beat Epicenter. Heyyy, wait a minute… lol
Midnight Bourbon was my derby horse. And he ran his heart out for me in the Travers, almost getting there against Essential Quality. Thanks for the memories. R.I.P.
Sad regarding passing of MB.
Been out most of the day and just heard the news about Midnight Bourbon.
Heartfelt condolences to Steve, Winchell Thoroughbreds, his grooms, exercise ride and everyone connected him.
We come to expect the death of an older horse, but not the young ones. This is a hard one to take.
Lynda I still haven’t gotten over Warren’s Showtime, and Medina Spirit and now Midnight Bourbon, all hard tryers! all fan favorites!
Oh I know Matthew W. I can hardly stand to look at photos of Medina Spirit without tears. Photos of Midnight Bourbon, all over FB Just breaks my heart.
My sincere condolences to Midnight Bourbon’s people. The son of Tiznow is a gallant member of the best 3-year-old group in the last 15 years.
Your horse had to be a very good one if you wanted to beat Midnight Bourbon.
RIP beautiful warrior.
Steve, I’m getting a little nostalgic about when the Derby PP’s took up 4+ pages in DRF. After seeing the Brisnet PP’s with the top 20 horses have only 96 starts between them all. If things keep going like this the PP’s will be on 1 sheet, front and back.
LOL. That’s an astounding number. The record for most Derby runners with 4 or fewer career starts is 5, in 2019: Maximum Security, Tacitus, Vekoma, Roadster, and Spinoff — all had 4 career starts. Last year’s Derby had 4 runners with 4 or fewer career starts: Sainthood, Helium, Rock Your World, and Soup and Sandwich — all had 3 career starts.
At this rate, it’ll be like handicapping a NW2x race.
Excellent perspective
I’ve been looking for the horse that can spice up the trifecta at long odds. The most obvious candidate would be Barber Road. I don’t think that he has much chance to win. But, he’s kind of a trifecta specialist. If I remember correctly, in his last 5 races, he has finished 2nd four times and 3rd once. He could be passing tiring horses in the stretch to crack the trifecta. Others that I’m looking at are Crown Pride, Ethereal Road(if he gets in), and maybe Zozos if he can run a race like Bodemeister did. Simplification seems to have dropped out of favor and could go off at 20-1 or more. He could be real interesting.
Chad Brown says that The Pat Day Mile on Derby Day is a possibility for Jack Christopher, the forgotten horse of the Class of 2022. A one-turn mile would seem to be the best distance for that horse IMO. It’s surprising to me that Chad Brown is considering such a tough race for “Jack’s” comeback. In fact, if I was a betting man, I’d say he doesn’t run there. It will be great to see him if he does show up though.
OMG….Midnight Bourbon has suddenly died at age 4.
That’s horrible news. Shocking.
I saw that. Heartbreaking. Though he didn’t win often, he became one of my favorite horses because of his grit and tenacity. Always showed up. Simply gorgeous animal, too. Condolences to all his connections — I know they are hurting today.
Had the same exact thought, just a beautiful horse.
Taiba …who is probably the shortest horse in the race. .stands tallest on talent! I am betting against— also rooting for him!
I lost my $200 on Rock Your World, last year but my 5-horse saver tri box (cost $30) came one/two/three/four/five— and now it’s a staple of mine….my five: Messier, Mo Donegal, Cyberknife, Smile Happy— and either Zozos or Tiz the Bomb, I need to throw one out— $20 for a $1 ex bx and $30 for a .50 cent tri box, $25 win/place on Messier total cost $100….but if Taiba…or White Abarrio…or Epicenter…or Zandon beat me I’ll gladly welcome them as the 2022 Kentucky Derby winner, I love Horse Racing!
So Rafael Bejarano will ride Happy Jack in the Kentucky Derby.
HAPPY JACK?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
In the KENTUCKY DERBY?!?!?!?!?!
Happy Jack….so that Doug O’Neill can network?….Or does Doug owe the owner a dream fulfilled?….I know that Ragozin’s Jon Hardoon is over the moon, about getting to walk from the barn to the paddock with Cyberknife…but they have a chance to contend, if Cyber keeps improving….Happy Jack belongs in the Pat Day Mile …
Matthew W – I believe ultimately the owner, Calumet Farm makes the call on running in the Derby, not O’Neil.
Makes sense!
Since I have Smile Happy and Tiz the Bomb covered with futures wagers, my Derby wagering plan is to cover any horses likely to ruin my day if I am not on them! At this time, before final field and post positions, etc I plan to key Mo Donegal, Messier, and Zandon in some exacta boxes…As an old-timer, it is really depressing to see so many horses with so few starts before the Derby: Foundation used to be important! At least Epicenter, Cyberknife and Barber Road have 6 races prior to the Derby. I have a difficult time backing Assmussen and Pletcher horses in the Derby, for obvious reasons, but it looks like each has a serious win contender this year and I have to include. Probably change my mind multiple times before May 7th…
Regular contributor, Liam, provided the link to brisnet.com, Ultimate PP’s w/Quick Play comment Kentucky Derby, which was a real eye opener relative to internal fractions, late pace, final time and the brisnet speed figure. In recent years, I dismissed horses coming out of the Wood, but this year that would probably be a big mistake. Mo Donegal’s late pace figure of 121 is by far the highest in the projected KD field, the closest being a 114 earned by Zandon in the Blue Grass. Mo Donegal’s speed figure of 111 is equaled by Early Voting (Preakness ?) and the inexperienced Taiba. Obviously, speed alone is not the determining factor in handicapping the Kentucky Derby, but stamina to carry that speed over a distance of ground is the key.
With the prospect of Early Voting pointing to the Preakness, I was delighted to see Simplification at the top of the Prime Power column.
My top 8, in preferential order
1) Simplification
2) Epicenter
3) Mo Donegal
4) Zandon
5) Tabia
6) Messier
7) White Abarrio
8) Smile Happy
Hey Bill, I’m not familiar with “Prime Power”, is that a brisnet stat, and what is included in their formula?
Thanks!
Hi Bruce
In Steve’s Derby Rankings: Week 13, he mentioned the Prime Power, “which measures the quality of each horse’s recent starts by combining dozens of handicapping factors into one rating–speed, class, pace, form, weight, distance and many other factors–to form a sophisticated computer generated algorithm”.
Needless to say, I’ll just settle for the Prime Power number that’s listed on the brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performance sheets.
How it’s formulated, I’ll leave to the experts.
That’s the best answer I can give you, Bruce.
Good luck.
Bruce, whether for the Derby or any other race, I’ve found Prime Power to be useful only if a horse has a significant edge over the next highest rated horse. Here’s the record of Derby horses since 2000 that had over a 5-point edge in Prime Power:
Fusaichi Pegasus (2000, finished 1st) 175.5 +11 edge
Tiz the Law (Sept. 2020, 2nd) 161.3 +6.8
Big Brown (2008, 1st) 156.2 +6.4
Harlan’s Holiday (2002, 7th) 158.9 +6.3
Hansen (2012, 9th) 158.6 +5.9
Keep in mind that the PP numbers will change considerably from now until the final entries due to the comparative nature of the formula.
Thank you both for your feedback! And sorry to Steve for me being so absent-minded….only a week ago that he mentioned the Prime Power stat and I’ve already forgotten that he brought it to our attention!
You’re welcome, Bruce.
Is Slow Down Andy not going to the Derby?
Thought he had the PTS.
He got sick
Did not see that
TY
Thank you Steve for providing valuable information as well as giving us the opportunity to express ourselves….you are appreciated for this.
That said, I’ve read here opinion after opinion – which is good and the spice of life.
However, this reminds me that opinions are like butts and noses – everyone has one.
Nonetheless, I would like to butt my nose in here – oh, excuse me – offer my opinion .
I believe that Messier’s race in the SA Derby, if not for a horse called Taiba, would have been an obvious double digit length win AND that effort would have won both the Blue Grass and Wood on that given Saturday, that is, if entered.
You can probably tell where I going with this….but let’s wait for the defections, pp’s and weather.
Messier—with zero points…in a new barn. ..made his move a bit early, and was passed by a nice horse…..I like him!
The Derby winner comes down to one of five. Epicenter, Zandon, White Abarrio, Mo Donegal and the most intriguing Taiba. Messier and Smile Happy looked weak on post parade in their last and ran that way. If a horse hasn’t won or finished a strong second in one of the key preps the last ten years says they are a throw out. The key is which bombers could finish third or fourth for the tri and super. Loved Arrogate into the Travers off of outstanding prior efforts and if there is a superstar in the top 5 I’m thinking it’s the improbable Taiba.
I say this every year. The only thing to watch out for now is that Street Sense, Barbaro, Big Brown type monster work where Steve describes the jockey looking like a rag doll on the back of the horse lol.
Oddly enough, those three monster works happened in consecutive years, only to never be seen again. At least not on those levels as far as I can remember.
I just read a story about Mattress Mac’s plans to bet $3million on the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Surprisingly, it sounds like most of that money will be going on potential race favorite Epicenter. I say surprisingly because I would have thought that he would be all over Smile Happy. Maybe he figures that he’s got enough Smile Happy action in the 5 future wager pools. Mac says that he will try to bet early so that people will be able to see how his bets impact the pool, and most importantly, the odds. Apparently, this is all about some sort of promotional tie-in with his Mattress stores.
Dear Mattress Mac, please bet Zandon.
Taiba looks like he’s carrying a lot of extra weight. Read he was a small foal, I guess in height.
I’m a ‘lurker’ on this blog, only post once in a blue moon, and have followed Steve for years. I’m a total amateur, in no way a handicapper, but love the game. I’ve learned so much, and chuckled so much, from Steve’s columns, and I have always appreciated the civility and humor (ie Eddie F et al) on his blogs. I ran across some info that might just be useful to folks like me to make ‘informed’ bets:
1) The most common color of Kentucky Derby winners is bay with 56, including Mandaloun in 2021, followed by chestnut with 48 winners and brown with 17. Eight Kentucky Derby winners were gray or roan, most recently Giacomo in 2005.
2) Nineteen Kentucky Derby winners’ names have started with the letter S, the most of any letter; the only three letters not represented by a Derby winner are Q, X, and Y.
3) There have been nine undefeated Kentucky Derby winners from 30 undefeated horses who have run in the race since 1915. Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018 is the most recent. This year, Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba has a chance to boost that number to 10 as one of the expected favorites.
4) Bill Shoemaker was 54 years old when he won the Kentucky Derby in 1986 aboard Ferdinand, the oldest jockey to win run for the roses.
5) The record for the youngest winning Kentucky Derby jockey is 15 years old, by Alonzo Clayton in 1892 aboard Azra and James “Soup” Perkins in 1895 with Halma.
6) The Florida Derby has produced 24 Kentucky Derby winners over the years to rank as the most productive prep race on the Derby trail. The Blue Grass Stakes and Champagne Stakes rank second with 23.
10) Favorites have won 56 of the previous 147 editions of the Kentucky Derby, according to the official media guide, including six of the last nine editions.
11) Count Fleet in 1943 and Citation in 1948 rate as the most overwhelming favorites to win the Kentucky Derby, both prevailing at 2-5 odds and returning $2.80 for a $2 bet.
12) The largest margin of victory in the Kentucky Derby is eight lengths and it was accomplished four times in Derby history: Old Rosebud in 1914, Johnstown in 1939, Whirlaway in 1941, and Assault in 1946. The final two went on to sweep the Triple Crown.
13) The Kentucky Derby has been decided by a winning margin of a neck or less on 25 occasions, so there is a very good chance for a thrilling finish.
Armed with these ‘important facts in hand’, I’m going with the gray White Abarro. I like the idea of an unexpected winner and trainer. Good luck to all, and safe trips for all. And thank you, Steve, for the information, wonderful writing and opportunities to share our love of the game you have created for years and years.
Great post! I wonder if Honest Pleasure ranks as the most heavily bet LOSER of The Derby, 2/5 in 1976, beaten more than a length.
It looks like HP and Bimelech (1940) share the dubious distinction at 0.40-1. I guess if one is betting on a 2-5 shot, a loss is well deserved!
Good to see you again Solo. Thanks for the great info
Well, that was a bit of an unexpected pleasure. Good luck to you too.
Very informative post!
Hi, SoloSolo! It’s so good to hear from you. Ain’t the media guide a gem? I often quote from it, but without attribution. 🙂 Good luck with WA. He’ll be a solid longshot.
I haven’t really been away, just ‘lurking, and I’ve been keeping an eye on you, EddieF, making sure you humor is up to your usual standards! Good luck with your Derby picks & wagers.
Smile Happy was washy for the Bluegrass, he’s also bigger than Zandon, or looks bigger, by a lot…..Zandon is skinny…..just putting it out there, of the two I like Smile Happy more..
Of course I like Messier, and like Zandon HE is also skinny..
Crown Pride has been slowly working his way up Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings the last 3 weeks. After previously being mentioned in the “Knocking On The Door” section, Crown Pride made the rankings at #20 in Week#12. He moved up to #16 in Week#13 and shows up at #12 this week. I can see him possibly hitting the board in The Derby. A win would sure shake things up. Japanese horses won 2 races on Breeders Cup Saturday at Del Mar. They dominated last month’s Dubai World Cup and have seemingly been winning everywhere for over a year. If there are any “dosage” fans left out there, Crown Pride has a Dosage Index of 1.55 which is very good. The other Japanese horse, Summer is Tomorrow has a 2.11. For comparison, Epicenter is .60 and Tiz the Bomb 1.86. Those are the only Dosage numbers that I saw. I haven’t really put much stock into Dosage numbers since the 1990s. But, I still think that they are interesting. Pinehurst was one of the favorites in The Dubai World Cup and I didn’t like him at all in that race, considering him a complete “bet against”. I was right about that even though I was unable to pick the winner. Crown Pride crushed Pinehurst that night which is great. But, I think that most of the projected Kentucky Derby field would have beaten Pinehurst pretty easily. No offense to Pinehurst fans. He’s a very usable horse in the right situations. In fact, I cashed on him in the shorter Saudi Arabia Derby against lesser the month before when Pinehurst barely hung on to beat another Japanese horse. So, while I feel confident that I have a good grasp of the U.S. horses, the Japanese runners are still a mystery to me and I will have to let them beat me.
Steve Haskin points out Crown Pride’s 1:18 3/5 six furlong workout. That’s going to look pretty strange in the Racing Form for a quality horse entered in The Derby. But, as Mr. Haskin also points out, the Japanese trainers do things differently and should be respected. I wouldn’t let that workout dissuade me if I liked the horse. Now, if I saw a Saffie Joseph or BB horse with a workout like that……….well, I’d be concerned.
Didn’t the Japanese runner Lani have a very slow workout before The Belmont a few years ago? My impression of Lani was that he was a decent horse without a quick turn of foot. I’ll be polite and call him a grinder. In fact, Todd Pletcher’s Commandperformance reminds me of Lani. No offense to either horse. Maybe Todd should consider shipping Commandperformance to Sha Tin Racecourse where maybe he can break his Maiden.
Japan to Dubai to Louisville not for me..
I think Lani ran true to his pedigree. Tapit progeny have excelled at winning or placing in the Belmont Stakes. Lani took 3rd.
He ran 9th in the Derby and 5th in the Preakness and by the end of his career at age 4 he had won $1,671,708 dollars.
When racing, he was a bit of a bad boy and that endeared him to a lot racing fans in the United States.
Coming into the Derby in 2016, only Nyquist and Exaggerator had won more money than Lani had at that point.
Got to keep in mind the horse had the almost 12 hour plane trip, quarantine barn stay as well. They want an easy gallop then they do it. They could just be looking for how he moved, handling the track, pulling, etc. I also recall but could be wrong they weren’t into fast works anyway last time they tried the Derby. Hard to judge not knowing how this colt was trained for the UAE Derby. I would just watch what works you can They still have over 2 weeks left before Derby Day. I want to know the post draw and the jockey. They get a jockey with some Derby experience I would think he would hit the board.
One thing for sure is hope it’s warmer in Kentucky then it is here. 4 inches of snow yesterday and still spitting snow in northern Virgina.
Laura, I agree with you about Crown Pride.
When I tell people that Virginia can get snow as late as Mother’s Day, they just look at me in disbelief.
We are having a “Blackberry Winter” here in Northeast Georgia but the local weather forecaster says we are about out of it. Sure hope so, my apple tree did survive the heavy frost and freeze we had. Not sure about my pear tree.
There’s still a few of us old time Dosage boys left!
I have spent some time over the past 6 months or so following, learning and researching Japan’s racing program.
They have two state of the art training centers that make our tracks and shed rows look like homeless camps back in the Depression Era.
Basically they have 3 training tracks at the training centers;, turf, dirt and wood chip surfaces. One of the training tracks goes uphill that teaches the horse to work off their hind quarters and put muscling and strength into the hindquarters. The only training center that comes even close is Fair Hill in Maryland and a new one that just opened in Texas.
Much like the Europeans and the Aussies the horses are trained off site (in this case the training centers) and shipped to the racetrack for races.
Their training program is very much the European method that Godolphin and Coolmore uses with some tweaks.
Each training center has a state of the art horse health care, diagnostics and sports medicine centers.
In addition they have very strict drug and medication protocols and protocols for “bleeders” or exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage.
Everything comes under one racing authority entity.
Their breeding program has been built around American Thoroughbreds (Sunday Silence, Forty-Niner, a Kingmambo colt named King Kamehameha and most recently Drefong and of course California Chrome) that were for some reason or the other rejected by American breeders.
If you study the pedigrees of their top race horses you will see that they have carefully selected broodmares that add stamina to compliment the speed stallions. In recent years they have acquired several of our best racing mares including Swiss Skydiver.
In addition they have spent large sums of money on race track safety.
I have been embarrassed by some of the comments made by many Americans about the Japanese horses that come to America to race. Such comments have been rude, arrogant and condescending. And yes there is an arrogance in American dirt racing, a “we are the best in the world and always will be”. The things that were said about Lani were awful.
I have no way of knowing if Crown Pride will win or even place in the Derby. He did not place in the money at the Hyacinth which was run in the mud. If he gets a decent post position and the track is dry, I think he has a very good chance being in the money.
He is a beautiful horse, beautifully conditioned and has great bone…much better than what we see on many of our American horses these days. I watched the video of him being unloaded after his arrival in America and was impressed by his condition after racing in Dubai and flying to Kentucky. Not one rib was visible, no tucked up flank. He has a powerful hip and hindquarters.
I think the Japanese learned something that Coolmore did not and that is getting the horses here early so they can train over the track and become acclimated to the environment at CHD is imperative.
If you want to learn more about his pedigree there is an excellent article on the Kentucky Derby website (10 Fun Pedigree Facts Crown Pride).
On another note, I follow Chrome in Japan and have to say he looks ten times better than he ever did at Taylor Made.
Great post, Lynda! You are spot on that the Japanese have been carefully building up their bloodstock for many years. I research antique pedigrees for fun (yeah, I know — a weird kind of fun), and it astounds me when I come across a British or American horse that was imported into Japan in the 1920s or even the 1890s.
Your excellent summary of Japanese training and racing protocols can be summed up in one sentence:
“Everything comes under one racing authority entity.”
Ms Blacktype, thank you!
I too research pedigrees going all the way back to the first Thoroughbreds that arrived in the American Colony.
In case you haven’t noticed, I am a bit of a history buff, LOL.
i was absolutely delighted to learn several years ago that one of my ancestors bred, raised and raced Thoroughbreds.
So I guess you could say that horse racing is in my blood, maybe?
Yes, I HAVE noticed! Someone has to keep things in perspective, LOL.
Lynda, many have forgotten the Japanese runner Casino Drive, who won the Peter Pan Stakes in a canter and would have easily won the Belmont Stakes had he not been injured prior to the reach.
The Japanese breeding in many respects emulate the early success of Coolmore, basically, adding US speed to European stamina. Their primary racing surface is turf and winning major races in Europe of the greater import than winning the Kentucky Derby.
Moreover, race-day medication is not permitted in Japan.
Hello Davids
Going to (a rare occasion) disagree with you about Japan’s interest in dirt racing and winning the Derby.
Their recent purchases of stallions, including California Chrome, are most all dirt track horses though Chrome did win that one turf race. They have also spending a lot of money on American bred mares (example Swiss Skydiver).
Damien Lane who rode the colt in the UAE Derby said this about him ““Whenever you jump aboard (a Japanese-trained horse) you can be confident they’re going to be strong and they’re going to run well and it’s just a privilege to be a part of it.”
They do have dirt track races in Japan and I looked at a list of horses that are in training on dirt, No where near as many as we have of course.
Chuwa Wizard is one of their success stories on dirt, His sire. King Kamehameha, is Crowns Pride damsire.
Chief’s Crown (also in Crown Prides pedigree, was winner of the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in 1984. Chief’s Crown has a more dubious distinction of being the beaten favorite in all three jewels of the 1985 Triple Crown, coming closest in the Preakness while checking in third in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. From this same immediate family comes Winning Colors, who beat the boys in the 1988 Kentucky Derby. Chief’s Crown was sired by Six Crowns (Secretariat x Chris Evert). Chris Evert was Winner of NY Filly Triple Crown (Mother Goose S.-G1, Acorn S.-G1 and Coaching Club American Oaks-G1) as well as Golden Rod S.-G3, Demoiselle S.-G3, Hollywood Special S., La Canada S
So speaking, pedigree wise, this colt is loaded with both stamina and Classic and graded stakes winners.
Yes I know race day meds are not allowed in Japan. The United States is the only country that still allows them. HA, that is a totally different discussion. It has always been a dilemma for International horses to come here having to decide if they will use Lasix. Some do and some do and some do not. We have all been around the world and back and debated the use of Lasix ad nauseum.
I seem tp recall that Claiborne Farms (here) does not use Lasix on race day.
Not sure if the Derby is Lasix free on race day now or not.
As to Coolmore and Aiden I have read that they seem to be in a bit of a slump this year.
Thank you for telling me about Casino Drive. I did look him up. He retired to stud at Shadai Stallion Station and I found progeny through 2018 but he is no longer showing on the Shadai or any other breeding farm register.
Lynda, go to the website:japanracing.jp then lookup the list of JRA Graded races and you’ll see how much turf racing dominates dirt racing in Japan. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the prestige race that Japan desires the most. Orfevre (twice), Nakayama Festa and El Condor Pasa have all endured near-misses their dirt horses are nowhere near the class of these runners. They nominated 6 horses for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last year.
Japan needs outcrosses from the dominant Halo and Northern Dancer from previous years while at the same time looking for variants on the same successful lines.
Nice post, Lynda. There’s no need for you to be embarrassed by rude or condescending commenters. They should be embarrassed. But I don’t think that the vast majority of comments are as such. Most seem to share my opinion. That is, there have only been three (?) Japan-raced horses in the Derby. That’s not enough of a historical record to get a line on Japanese runners. Additionally, handicapping comparisons are difficult if not impossible. I’m sure that, eventually, a horse from Japan will win the Derby. But until a positive pattern develops, I’ll not bet my money on those entries.
Steve, it’s been a very confusing year all things considered but you seem to have put all the ducks in a row at the end. Well done, again. The top seven appear the most likely to win + Charge It for me anyway. I also feel Barber Road could place as well, with a touch of luck, as you have written above.
What makes this year’s Derby more exciting than most is that all the top runners have a certain ‘Achilles hoof’ to overcome if they are to go ahead and win. Will they, won’t they? Post positions may be critical for some but with the new custom-made 20-stall starting gate design from Australia, most runners get a fair chance from the start.
Hopefully, Twinspires will be presenting “Morning Workouts” from Churchill Downs again this year. For those unable to be at the track the show give you an excellent platform to view the runners as they prepare for the Derby.
Thanks again, Steve. The best part of the Derby Trail has come to an end with only the letdown of the actual race to follow. Lol. Best of luck to all.
The Twinspires Show is actually called “Morning Works Show” on YouTube.
Thank you Steve for all your hard work on this edition of the Derby Rankings. It is most difficult to separate 6 or 7 horses.
I follow instincts a lot when I bet & this morning I woke feeling Smile Happy run a big race. We might get 6-1 on him.
I will box him with the 4 or 5 horses I mentioned last week.
This is real tough, I believe some trainers will sandbag prior efforts & just focus on winning the Derby.
This is the hardest Derby to handicap in many a year. Stick to your guns old friend, you may have been right about putting Smile Happy at #1 for several weeks.
Thank you again for your diligence & incredible work on this. It does not go unnoticed.
I appreciate it Deacon, thank you very much. Smile Happy could very well be the overlay
Thank you Steve. The Derby would not be the same without your efforts to educate us. Hard to believe that the race is near already.
Thanks very much, Kenny
Hi Steve, you regularly mention how fast horses run in a particular quarter, 24.1 etc. Are you figuring this out manually or are they listed somewhere online? Fractions are a key component of my handicapping, so if there’s a source that provides the numbers I’d love to know about it. Thanks.
Trakus is the free source of this information. Below are the times for the 4 first quarters and the last furlong for key winners.
Zandon (Blue Grass) 24.66 24.33 24.39 24.82 12.26
In the Santa Anita Derby:
TAIBA 23.48 23.64 24.15 24.85 12.55
Messier 23.34 23.55 24.12 24.96 12.99
Mo Donegal (Wood Memorial) 24.75 23.49 24.01 23.64 11.97
Keenelad seemed to be the heaviest track during the running of the April 9 Derby preps…
This is great, thanks Nelson!
Great stuff, Nelson. Mo Donegal really smoked that last eighth.
Steve, sorry to change the subject. Taiba’s female family line says one thing to me: Belmont.
He has two Triple Crown winners from his dam sire’s family and one Belmont winner.
Secretariat and Slew are fairly common names in pedigrees, especially Secretariat, so I wouldnt put too much stock in that.
Agreed Steve. But add Mike Smith, as the jockey, and Gun Runner as the sire and the Belmont becomes a possibility.
7pm Mon Free Brisnet PP’s over at HRN.
I dont see it
Got it now
Thank you Steve. I surely miss you on weekly visits with Steve Byk. I’d love to listen to you sometime at a meet and great sometime. Blessings to you and your family
Thank you very much Art. I appreciate it
Simplification could go to the lead, according to his Brisnet pace numbers. KD Pps now available for free.
Link please.
Ty
Simple and most intuitive. Type something like KD pp’s 2022 and ye shall find in a search.
Johnny – try this
https://production-picks-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2022/04/Kentucky-Derby-2022-PPs.pdf
Hey Liam
Many thanks for providing the Brisnet pace numbers link. I always like to compare speed figures (Equibase, Brisnet, Beyers, TimeForm and the Thoro-Graph patterns that Steve shares on this blog).
In terms of realibility and consistency, I look to Equibase Speed Figures most of the time. Just my opinion.
Due to the 20 horse field, the Derby is going to require a tough horse who is versatile, has a lot of heart, and fight in him and who is fast. I think that Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, and White Abarrio are horses who match this description.
There are two issues with White Abarrio: will he like the Churchil Downs surface and transfer his winning ways to CD and problems with the current system ,Trakus, at Gulfstream Park which measures the speed of each of the horses.
Gulfstream will be replacing their speed measuring system with the older more reliable system used everywhere else. And they will be redoing their grass course. This will be done over the summer: thank goodness.
Thanks for your excellent analysis of all of the races and horses. What an awesome task to undertake each week.
The best of luck with your picks.
I like your picks. I also think Tiz the Bomb might be worthy. Gulfstream should be the better for a new turf course which is long overdue, love that place but not the newish management. It will prevail though. This year’s racing was less entertaining than before, and less lucrative. They need managers who understand the tourist and retiree vibes of south Florida, not places far removed from it.
Thanks Discopartner. i agree with what you said about Gulfstream Park. I really miss Frank Stronach owning the place. He wasn’t born rich, so he had a better understanding of the clientele. And Frank, in spite of controversy, really loves his horses. And I am a big fan of the horses he has bred. Any horse who rides with Adena Springs colors, has a home for life. And when you win, you can donate to retired race horses through their retirement funding organization. The turf course is called the dirth coarse by some of the horsemen. I am really glad that they are redoing the turf. Several years ago, Frank had totally redone the dirt race track with new drainage and everything new; if he had been in charge, he would have done the same at Santa Anita.
I was really disappointed that the Sport of Kings room was not open for the Florida Derby and was only for VIPs. Frank believed everyone should be able to experience horse racing regardless of their income.
Wishing you the best of luck in the Triple Crown. I really don’t know what to say about Taiba and Charge It. One might win the Preakness and the other the Belmont. It’s a wide open field this year.
Thanks for replying with all that info. about Gulfstream. Like you, I felt Frank S. developed Gulfstream into a great betting track with lots of racing and crowds. I suppose the loss of Calder altered what they could do this year. Hopefully the new turf course will be a boon for the track.
With White Abarrio, revisit the Churchill Downs 2021 Kentucky Jockey Club. Jockey, Zayas, puts White Abarrio in all manor of problematic difficulty, yet, the colt manage to soldier on well for third.
With Tyler Gaffalione aboard, White Abarrio’s next visit to Churchill Downs should be less problematic if nothing else. Good post, good chance.
Thanks Davids. I will watch the race. I agree about the jockey change. Tyler Gaffalione aboard White Abarrio might do quite well, especially if the horse has a good post.
I am really quite happy for Saffee Joseph Jr. and Tyler Gafflione having a talented versatile horse heading to the Derby.
I remember what has been said about closers at Gulfstream and Churchill Downs; they don’t win races there. Well, Orb won at both tracks and Giacomo won at Churchill Downs.
Good luck with your Derby and Triple Crown race selections.
Thanks Terri, best of luck to you as well.
Depending upon PP, WA could be mid pack going around the turn before heading to the stretch. WA seems to be able to move through traffic fairly easily when he can find an opening. That shows the will to accellerate and to get into position to push forward rapidly. I think WA is smart and knows where to move and how to chase the leaders down. He has been much improved since the KJC last year, and the FLDerby showed me he can win the KD even if the FLDerby time was slow. He will surprise some people I think.
I also see TTB as a potential rocket-thrower in the KyDerby who may surprise a lot of people. He seems to have push button acceleration, so the question on him is will he like CD dirt well enough, and will he be in position close enough to the leaders for the accelleration to make a difference in his final placement in the pack. For me the obvious play is Epi/Zandon, but I will wait for PPs and for workouts to make final choices.
Thank you, Steve, for a wonderful springtime filled with great Derby analysis and stories. I appreciate how you always include speed figures and thoro-graph information. As always the reading here of the blog and the comments make my week! I look forward to the final analyisis in the next couple weeks!
Yes Sally, White Abarrio is a nimble, agile runner able to escape foreseeable problems before they occur, when ridden away from problems not into them as in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Tyler Gaffalione rides in the classic style of getting his mount perfectly positioned early on. Johnny V. is a model exampla.
Tiz the Bomb, for me, seems more a turf specialist and the New York 3 year old turf Classics might be a better target but who knows until you try. Best of luck, to you. Let’s hope for a sunny day, it’s the least you can ask for. Ha ha
Zandon: That is a impressive pattern for sure. My thinking is Prat will have him closer much like Country house.
Taiba: A negative number for a two year old is definitely the kiss of death. Last horse to have a negative two year old number was Bolt D Oro. As a three year old recovery and lightly raced are pluses.
Epicenter:according to TG not even in the top 5 numbers wise I’ve been hearing but his running style sure does match the trend for Derby winners.
Messier: Maybe slightly forgotten I, sure team Bafkeen will have him cranked up and ready to go. Numbers wise he fits and has the running style?
White Abario: Just don’t know a forward pattern with a 1 TG fits as well. Interested in his LP #
Tiz the Bomb: Maybe my key underneath. Do not know his TG n7mbers but his running style and record is hard to ignore.
GL to all and I may change my mind
Steve, I think you’ve wrapped up the Derby scene in a manner than no longer surprises me. This is a deep field of potential stars, and you’ve helped me to sort through them. I’m thinking I might just box the top three finishers of the Risen Star Stakes, sit back, and enjoy the show! That plus my only KDFW on Simplification (small $$) will hopefully generate the necessary excitement.
Has there been any serious talk about the fractions and final time of the Florida Derby? I find it difficult to believe that good horses could be that slow. Someone must have put a stopwatch to the video replay, right?
Wondering that myself Eddie. That 14.1 finish doesn’t seem right. Not sure why race times aren’t 100% accurate. The technology has been invented.
Steve: I so enjoyed reading your thoughtful and thorough analysis this week, and plan to reread it several times between now and Derby Day. The Thoro-Graph patterns are particularly intriguing, especially since three or four horses are clearly peaking at the right time. Now to figure out which one will get a great trip and ride, and which one will get shut off, boxed in early, or hammered out of the gate. There’s always one or two — or half a dozen it seems.
One horses whose Thoro-Graph figures you didn’t mention are those of Epicenter. Care to enlighten us?
Thanks to all who are posting their betting strategies and how to parlay small amounts into big pay-offs. Happy analyzing/agonizing, everybody!
I gave a detailed look at is T-Graph numbers last week
I’ll backtrack and take a look. I can’t remember anything any more!
One of several neg, BB pushes horses 2 hard. No one discusses obvious, number cooked in process.
Mike Relva, I agree with what you said about BB. I was very disappointed in the results when BB took over the training of Maximum Security. That horse was never the same. He didn’t want to run fast in the morning.
Unlike BB, H. Allen Jerkens tailored the training of each horse to what worked for that horse. It wasn’t a matter of fitting each horse in his program; each horse had his own program. He was the Chief for a reason.
Best of luck with your picks in the Derby and in the Triple Crown series.
By the way, Tabia’s female line screams Belmont.
Kudos! Bravo!
Thanks Mike.
I dislike the arrogance of the person we were discussing. He was given too many passes on the West Coast. He thinks that rules don’t apply to him. So he became sloppy in the observance of the rules.
Bingo regarding arrogance. … in spades!
Bob won a gr1 a gr2 and a 2nd in a gr1 with Max, who was working 55 sec halves fir Servis….you think he was running clean? ( for Servis)???…..
One concern- how hard he pushes some horses.
I just rewatched The Bluegrass. Smile Happy was caught 5-wide all the way around the first turn and 3-wide all the way around the second turn. I will stop short of calling Zandon’s trip a perfect trip, but, it was pretty good. Flavien Prat put up a great ride. Prat’s ride reminded me of his ride on Doppelganger in his 1st start Maiden breaker at Los Alamitos when he also got a perfect set-up. My point is that I don’t see much between Smile Happy and Zandon. They seem to be pretty close in ability. Maybe a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs can separate them a little bit. But, maybe not.
Remember, because of the wide trip, they both got the same Thoro-Graph number despite the 2 1/2 length margin.
I did my first official run through the top 10 in points – Epicenter, Zandon, White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Cyberknife, Taiba, Simplification, Smile Happy – and these are my thoughts.
* Epicenter – most likely to win.
* Mo Donegal – most likely to run second or third. I do think he’s risky though because it takes him a while to get going again when he gets his momentum stopped, so he’ll need a spotless trip.
* Smile Happy – just between Smile Happy and Zandon, I think Zandon won the battle (Blue Grass) but Smile Happy wins the war (derby). Give me the horse that worked in his prep, ran wider and faster early only losing by two vs. the horse that had it easy as can be. I’ll be looking for a head to head prop bet with these two.
Even though Irad Ortiz rode Commandperformance in The Bluegrass, I don’t think that he stayed in Lexington to ride him. I think that Irad Ortiz stayed to ride Golden Pal in The Shakertown earlier on the card. Golden Pal’s presence in the race might have made this year’s Shakertown the best edition of that race ever run. Ortiz and Golden Pal have won a lot of money together with surely much more to come.
Steve Haskin comments that if Taiba wins The Derby, it could start a trend of twice raced horses running in The Run for the Roses. We would be left to handicap a field of strangers. That “strangers” comment sums it up perfectly. That would be awful. I hope it never comes to that. For some reason that reminds me of The WHAS Stakes that they ran earlier on The Oaks or Derby cards. Even though that race was for 2-year olds. The WHAS was loaded with horses with 1 or 2 races and sometimes even Maidens & first time starters. I think they still run the race, but, with a different name.
Also, think what a trend like that would do to The Road to The Kentucky Derby prep season. I’ve really enjoyed the preps this year. Like I do every year. I’ve watched every one of them and bet on all but the European and Japanese preps. It’s been fun. I feel pretty confident that I have a pretty good grasp of The Derby field this year. Now, if I can just pick the right one out of my five.
To reduce the risk of me “blowing it”, I’ve made a note to myself to play my five in exacta and trifecta boxes.
BTW, I always vow that I’m going to start playing Superfectas in The Derby because they always pay so well. But, for some reason Churchill has made the Superfecta on Derby Day a $1 minimum bet. Too much IMO. The trifectas are still 50-cents.
Hey TommyMc
You mentioned you have five as your top contenders, and need to pick the right one out of the five.
Once you’ve picked your top one, key him on top, in the first slot, with the other four underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots in the superfeacta. Your $24.00 dollar investment is worth the risk. In the Super Hi-5, key that same horse on top, with the other four underneath in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th slots for that same $24.00 dollar cost. Now, you’ve got the Super and Super Hi-5 covered for only a $48.00 dollar investment.
In the 2017 Kentucky Derby, I boxed the four horses that had sire lines leading directly to Mr. Prospector, and their broodmare sire lines leading directly to Northern Dancer. Those four were; Lookin at Lee, Battle of Midway, Classic Empire and Irish War Cry.
Had I keyed the favorite, (Always Dreaming) on top of those four, I would have collected $75,974.50.
This year there is only one colt that was bred from that breeding cross, Zozos, but their are five who’s sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector; Tabia, Messier, Cyberknife, Early Voting and Tawny Port. I’ll be throwing all of those into my superfecta and Super Hi-5 mixes.
BTW, just reading between the lines, it appears Chad Brown will bypass the Derby, and point Early Voting to the Preakness.
Bottom line, the Kentucky Derby payouts in the Superfecta and Super Hi-5 can be huge, so a $48.00 investment is well worth the risk.
Good Luck.
That’s a good idea. Thanks Bill Dawson. I’ll give it a try. A $75k payout would keep me playing the horses for the rest of my life.
The Steve Haskin Derby Rankings really enhance my enjoyment of The Derby Prep season. I’m sure that I’m not the only one who feels that way. It’s always great to read Steve’s comments and the diversity of opinions on what I saw on the weekend.
All of the heavy lifting has been done by the horses as all of the preps are completed. The final field is taking shape and there appear to be several legitimate contenders to wear the roses. I am partial to Zandon and Tiz The Bomb who I both have bet in the KDFW pools. I would love to see Zandon break well and sit no worse than mid pack after the half mile mark. Tiz The Bomb is very intriguing at a price. If he handles the CD dirt, look out. As you said Steve his training will be a good harbinger of how he might perform in the KY Derby.
I tend to agree. ‘If’ Zandon gets a good post, breaks well, he has the turn of foot to sail home a comfortable winner it all has to happen though. Luck trumps everything in racing.
Crazy how fast and good Taiba is already. Would not shock me to see him win the Derby rather easily.
Would shock me.
Aye, aye, I’ll second that!
Agreed!
If Taiba had started out earlier, and had spaced his races….he’d be a heavy favorite, he still may go favored but I’ll try to beat him with Messier! Mo Donegal, Zandon, Epicenter. Cyberknife, Zozos under and over Mess, who is looking like my key—-Cyberknife is my longshot!
That leaves out Smile Happy…..I cannot do that!..
early voting info will be critical at some point for pace scenerio type cappers. The z horses look interesting based on if Early voting is in our out as he hleps Zandon if in with more strong pace possible (stable mate) but if he skips Zozos has a little better shot. Great info. thanks