Derby Rankings: Week 14
Well we are down to those long agonizing two weeks of just waiting, watching the training, and finally the anxiety of the post position draw. And of course hoping that everyone stays healthy. There isn’t much more to say about these horses that hasn’t been said before, so it’s now pretty much in your hands to decipher everything and try to make some sense of one of the most baffling Derbys in years with so many inexperienced horses with so many question marks. I see a lot of Travers horses in this field. So we have one more Rankings column and then our handicapping column and then most of us will be able to relate to the saying, “There is nothing like a horse to make a person feel like an ass.” ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 14, Apr. 19
By Steve Haskin
1. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
I admit, with only three starts and one on dirt there are more questions about him than the No. 2, 3, 4, and 5 horses, but his ceiling is the highest in the field. There are those who love him and those who feel he is a toss, although there are fewer of those now that Joel Rosario is on him. Because he is so polarizing, that is what makes him so intriguing. He has accomplished extraordinary things in only three starts, and the question is whether he himself is extraordinary. By ranking him No. 1 it is obvious I am banking on him being special. Yes, he is short on experience, but between his imposing physical prowess, his instant acceleration, and his monstrous gallop-outs, I am looking at him as a colt with more bottom than three starts would indicate. The Derby can easily expose horses with so few starts, but he is not really that much more inexperienced than the field as a whole. To demonstrate how much the Derby has changed, of the top 20 horses listed among the point leaders, their average number of lifetime starts is 4.8. Only two horses have as many as seven starts and of the horses still pointing for the Derby, four others besides him have had three career starts. So is he really at that big of a disadvantage, if any at all? As for his frontrunning performance in the Santa Anita Derby I don’t believe he needs the lead or is even more comfortable on the lead. I feel he went to the front only because he drew an inside post and used his natural speed to secure a comfortable position. I can easily see him rating off the pace and hopefully he will draw an outside post and get a clear trip and keep away from kickback. His speed figures as a whole are very strong, especially on TimeformUS, and he made a huge leap forward from grass to dirt on Thoro-Graph, going from an “8 ¾” to a “2 ¾” and I see another move forward in the Derby.
2. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
He has settled in at Churchill Downs and started off with a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5 in company with Sainthood, so he apparently likes the track. Sainthood is an up and comer with a combination of speed and grit and seemed to be a perfect workmate for him. I am a sucker for horses I had ranked in the Top 10 in Week 1, especially when they hadn’t accomplished much. But I can’t forget the courage and tenacity he showed outbattling Greatest Honour in a 1 1/8-mile maiden race last fall and I have been raving about his pedigree, especially his female family, right from the start. I have also watched him grow mentally from a quirky colt who sometimes seemed disinterested to a focused professional athlete who, with the addition of blinkers, has developed a killer instinct with the ability to crush his opponents. He is more of a grinder, and with four 1 1/8-mile races under him, there is no horse who has as strong a foundation and more stamina. All he needs is to establish a good position and just keep coming at them. And he will keep coming with that low action, his neck extended, and that great reach to his stride. And is there any jockey who is hotter right now than Irad Ortiz who is two-for-two on him since the blinkers were added? So I’ve been on him from the beginning and certainly not backing off now.
3. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality by Elusive Quality)
Sometimes it’s better to just simplify things. If you want to get a concise description of who he is, consider this: at the half-mile call of his races he has been a head back, a half-length back, 2 ½ lengths back, 7 ½ lengths back, and 9 lengths back. At the eighth pole he’s been 2 lengths in front and he’s been 2 lengths back . He has won three races off half-mile fractions of :48 and change and two races off half-mile fractions in :45 and change. In other words, what I’ve been saying all along is he can beat you from anywhere and off any kind of fractions. I better stop now before I convince myself to put him back to No. 1 where he was in Week 1. The temptation is strong, but for now I’m sticking with my two early finds and hope they live up to their promise. He knows how to win, he has the right pedigree, and he has the right trainer, so he certainly is a deserving favorite. I just feel like this is the year to be obstinate. Yes he is logical, but there has been very little about this year’s Derby trail that has been logical. He had a sharp five-furlong work at Churchill Downs in :59 3/5 in company finishing on even terms with his workmate who actually was stronger on the gallop-out as Essential Qualty went a bit wide into the turn. He doesn’t seem to paddle his left leg quite as much as he did earlier on and looked pretty smooth in his workout. In short, he hasn’t set off any fireworks on the road to Louisville, but he certainly knows his way to the winner’s circle and that’s all that counts.
4. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike)
By ranking a potential 25-1 shot No. 4 he obviously is my longshot pick, but I actually like him even more now after watching his first work at Churchill Downs. He is looking more and more like a horse who is peaking at the right time. Working in company with Bourbonic, the horse that nailed him on the wire in the Wood Memorial, he sat a half-length outside his workmate and was carrying his head petty high in the stretch. Although the rider on Bourbonic got down low and starting asking his horse inside the sixteenth, Dynamic One pulled away from him despite going the easier of the two. And even though he was on the outside he quickly opened six lengths on the gallop-out. That was the kind of work you want to see right before the Derby. He was back on the track Monday and was raring to go while making a great physical appearance. One of the main reasons I am so high on this horse now is the first impression he made on me back in January when he finished fourth in a maiden race. I wrote in Knocking on the Door: “As alluded to earlier, ANOTHER DUKE, coming off a third to Greatest Honour, broke his maiden at Gulfstream Saturday in fine fashion, but it was DYNAMIC ONE, second to Greatest Honour, who was much the best, going six-wide into the first turn from the disastrous 11-post and then making an eye-catching wide move on the far turn to battle for the lead four wide. He couldn’t sustain it for good reason and had to settle for fourth, beaten two lengths. This is my hidden gem of the year so far. With his amazing pedigree and explosive turn of foot I believe this could be a legit Derby horse who could even run well in stakes company next time if they decide not to bother with maiden races anymore.” This was before finding out he lost a shoe in the race and came back with mucus in his lungs. His Thoro-Graph figures show a horse who is making great progress and is ready for another career-best number.
5. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Indan Miss, by Indian Charlie)
The main thing you can say about him is that he is rock solid. He’s run big in California, Kentucky and Louisiana, on the lead and from eight lengths off the lead, and he’s the only horse who has won at 1 3/16 miles. He’s even run well at five furlongs on the grass. So he can handle any surface and has improved big-time since being equipped with blinkers. In short there isn’t much not to like about him. Nothing against Flavien Prat but Joel Rosario really seemed in tune with this horse and was the one who wanted to send him to the lead in the Louisiana Derby and then gave him the perfect ride. But because of some odd circumstances timing-wise following the performance of Concert Tour in the Arkansas Derby, O’Neill decided to name Prat on him. He looked strong in his six-furlong work in 1:14 1/5 in company, in which he eased clear of his workmate late and continued at a good clip past the wire while drawing several lengths clear. I don’t know where he’ll be in the Derby but you can be sure he is going to be competitive.
6. O Besos (Greg Foley, Orb – Snuggs and Kisses by Soto)
Now that he is in the Derby after being as far down the list as No. 25 he must be taken very seriously based on the progress he’s made with every start and his big finish in the Louisiana Derby. What first attracted me to him were his sprint races at Fair Grounds last year, in which he made some eye-catching late runs with a smooth easy-going stride and seemed to do things effortlessly. He has continued to improve going two turns in stakes company despite coming off Lasix and you can see his progress in all the speed ratings. After running a “7 ¼ ” and a pair of “6 1/2s” on Thoro-Graph he jumped to a “2 ¾” in the Louisiana Derby. His Beyer figures have gone from a 60 to 77 to 83 to 88 to 96 and his Brisnet figures have gone from a 76 to 82 to 88 to 91 to 94, so this horse has never taken a step backward in his entire career. And what better time to win the Kentucky Derby than just weeks after his sire was sold to Uruguay. We have seen it happen before on several occasions. I have a feeling he, like Dynamic One, could wind up a wise guy horse, but he still should be an enticing price. He is worth a win bet and no way I’m leaving this guy out of the exotics. He surely is one of those who is sitting on a peak performance and will be coming in the stretch.
7. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
To be honest it’s difficult throwing any horse out in this year’s Derby and his gutsy performance against Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes in his two-turn debut stamps him as another serious contender. He could go to the lead again, but we saw in the Gotham Stakes he is just as comfortable coming from off the pace. The big question with him is the mile and a quarter. I have no idea how he will handle the extra furlong with a contentious pace in a 20-horse field. He was holding off Essential Quality for most of the stretch run, but did switch back to his left lead at the sixteenth pole, so perhaps he was getting a little tired, which is understandable. In his most recent work at Churchill Downs, Brown had him on the inside of a workmate and he showed that same grit he did in the Blue Grass, pinning his ears and refusing to let his workmate get by him. I like that Javier Castellano has ridden him in all of his starts and he is another who has a great Thoro-Graph pattern. I love when horses make a huge leap and then pair off that number followed by another move forward. He went from a “10 ¾” to a “3,” ran another “3” in the Gotham, and then ran a “1 ¼” in the Blue Grass, second fastest last-out number in the field. He also has run three consecutive 102 Brisnet figures and no one in this field has run faster. He’s done it three times. So he has a lot going for him and is a smart play based on his speed ratings.
8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa by Brilliant Speed)
If courage under fire is an important attribute to have in this year’s Derby then he is a must use in most exotic bets, because you can count him battling to the wire. I don’t know if he’s fast enough to win or if he has the closing kick to win, but you have to take him very seriously. I can confidently state that there won’t be anyone in the race that has as many gutsy horses in his pedigree than this colt does, and it apparently has been passed on to him. Let’s start with his sire. If you get a chance go on You Tube and watch the 2015 Alysheba Stakes and how Protonico, after a stretch-long battle and appearing to be beaten, lunges forward at the wire to stick his nose in front. Protonico is a son of Giant’s Causeway, arguably the gamest European horse in the past quarter of a century, winning five consecutive Group 1 stakes by under a length, including three by a head. In each race he refused to let the best horses in Europe get by him. And don’t forget his gutsy performance against Tiznow in the BC Classic when his rider dropped the reins right before the wire. Medina Spirit’s broodmare sire Brilliant Speed won the Blue Grass Stakes by closest of noses; Brilliant Speed’s sire Dynaformer won two stakes by a nose and a half-length; and Dynaformer’s sire Roberto won the English Derby in the closest finish in history of the race, outbattling eventual Arc de Triomphe winner Rheingold in a finish so close his rider Lester Piggott dismounted before it was official because he thought he has lost. Finally, in Medina Spirit’s tail-female family, his third dam is by Holy Bull, out of a Forty Niner mare. Holy Bull scored one of the gutsiest victories in the history of the Travers Stakes and Forty Niner was involved in nine photos, winning the Haskell and Travers by a nose, outgaming Seeking the Gold each time. That is the family I want in a street fight.
9. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch the Moon by Malibu Moon)
He is one horse I think I may have ranked too low, but I’m not quite sure just where to put him. You had to love his work on Monday in which he went five furlongs in :59 4/5 in company and was just on cruise control down the stretch, galloping out six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 and pulling up seven panels in 1:26. That is what we refer to as a Derby work. He looks to be getting stronger and more filled out and it’s only a matter of when the Tiznow in him is going to come out. If he continues to train like this he likely will move up. I do know that he, along with Dynamic One and O Besos look to be my price win bets at this point. He runs hard every race and we have seen how tenacious he is when he’s in front, just like his sire. The big thing is to get him to the front, either from the start or at some point in the race. He has shown he’s not as effective having to catch horses in the stretch, so his main hope is that no one really wants the lead and he can cruise up there and then lull everyone to sleep, because they most likely will pay little attention to him. But he is not a horse you want to ignore for very long. In fact, if he continues to flourish he might not even need the lead to win. Not only is he a half-brother to Haskell and Louisiana Derby winner Girvin and Iroquois Stakes winner Cocked and Loaded, he has the much desired Rasmussen Factor on his dam’s side, being inbred to Monique Rene, who was not a top-class filly but did win 13 minor stakes and won 29 of her 45 starts, finishing in the money 37 times. Monique Rene’s sire made 56 starts and her dam 65 starts. In addition, her daughter Walk Away Rene, who is Midnight Bourbon’s third dam, produced horses who made 69, 58, and 39 starts, so we know where Midnight Bourbon gets his toughness and durability to go along with Tiznow. He is only one of two Derby horses this year to have made as many as seven lifetime starts, has never been out of the money, and has never raced under a mile, so he is the veteran of this group with one of the strongest foundations.
10. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen, Dialed In – Super Girlie by Closing Argument)
The more I study the Arkansas Derby and this colt’s career the more I’m convinced his victory at Oaklawn Park was more than just having a perfect setup race. Right now I just can’t rank him any higher until I see how he trains at Churchill Downs. I just don’t know how good he is. Yes, Caddo River and Concert Tour cut out some wicked fractions, but Super Stock, coming off only one race in four and a half months, was only 1 ½ to two lengths behind them and kept coming, blowing by both of them in the final sixteenth. This is a colt who won the 5 ½-furlong Texas Breeders’ Futurity last year battling with four other horses in fractions of :22 1/5 and :45 3/5. As he has stretched out he has turned that into tactical speed, sitting comfortably behind any kind of pace. In his two-turn debut in the Breeders’ Futurity, he was too keyed up early racing on the inside and behind horses. His rider had to step on the brakes, pulling back on the reins to prevent him from running up on horses’ heels. By the time he got clear, the two leaders, including Essential Quality, had opened up three lengths. Despite getting bumped and herded in the stretch he still managed to finish third. Following a game second to King Fury in the Street Sense Stakes, he turned in a sensational work for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes that had Asmussen all excited. But after cooling out, while they were putting up his hay and feed bucket he got loose and ran out of the stall, skinning his hind legs and suffering a puncture that required him being sent to Rood and Riddle for treatment. Because of his great disposition (he just eats and sleeps all day), and being such a smart horse, he was the perfect patient and soon was sent back to Asmussen. Two races later he is a Grade 1 winner and one of the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby.
11. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse, Into Mischief – Souper Soup, by Tapit)
With only three career starts and still showing signs of greenness in his races, I don’t know if he is ready to to win the Derby, but one thing I am sure of is that this colt has extraordinary talent and is going to be a terror down the road. He has matured rapidly and showed so much grit, speed, and overall talent in the Florida Derby, you really cannot dismiss him, especially after watching his huge five-furlong work in :59 4/5 work, which was as good as any work I’ve seen so far at Churchill Downs. First off, he changed leads on cue, which is what you wanted to see from him, but the way he was striding out down the stretch on a very loose rein and just took off from his workmate was extremely impressive and convinced me he has grown up in a short period of time and has made extraordinary progress since his first two starts. If this horse had one more start in which to develop a little more mentally and gain experience he would be ranked much higher. As it is, I would not be surprised to see him run a big race in the Derby. His Thoro-Graph number did jump from a “9 ¾” to a very strong “1 ¾” in the Florida Derby, making him one of the fastest horses in the race, but was it too big a leap and can he move forward off it? The five weeks surely will help, and judging from this last work, I am seeing a different horse, one who is on a big upward spiral.
12. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Bernardini – Dancing Afleet, by Afleet Alex)
Like Super Stock you just don’t know what to make of his last race as impressive as it was. Is he a horse who has made rapid improvement since running in claiming and starter allowance races or did he catch a field in which the top horses failed to fire or tired over a track that was incredibly slow? Dynamic One, who he caught on the wire, had a far worse trip and a far better Thoro-Graph number and totally dominated him in their work in company, in which Pletcher had him in front on the inside. Perhaps that is not how he is comfortable running. You have to love his pedigree and it looks as if he is finally running to it. But if he runs like he did in the Wood he is going to have to get very lucky coming from so far back and getting past so many horses. He is still a bit of a mystery horse who has a lot to prove.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
As for the others, there are still several you can pick out of the hat and get some buzz for your buck. They just might have more question marks than the ones in the Top 12 and would be more of a reach. The most enigmatic of them all is HELIUM, who has untapped ability and has looked good working at Churchill Downs, turning in a pair of strong five-furlong works. In his last work he kept going past the wire and was still strong down the backstretch. But as I’ve been saying every week, he has so much history and common sense handicapping to overcome you just wish he had another start after his gutsy Tampa Bay Derby victory. He will have to overcome three historical factors and no horse has overcome any of them in over 100 years. So if he wins, handicapping the Derby will never again be the same.
One of the more consistent horses is the hard-trying HIDDEN STASH, who may have overcome his inability to change leads, but we don’t know that for sure. He hasn’t shown quite enough to suggest he can win the Derby but the placings are wide open and he could be capable of sneaking in there if he gets a perfect trip and does everything right, especially change leads. But he will be a huge price for sure.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks one-two finishers LIKE THE KING and SAINTHOOD both looked good in that race, but they still have to prove themselves on dirt in top-class company. So you can certainly take a shot that they will be just as effective, but they are still guesses. Like the King has more experience and has never been out of the money in six starts, while Sainthood has had only three career starts, but did make huge progress coming off a nose victory in a maiden race at Fair Grounds.
If CADDO RIVER runs, and it is looking like he will, he could very well dictate the pace, being the one true frontrunner in the field who has the speed to outrun anyone if they are determined to get him to the lead. And it is safe to say that is where he is most effective. It’s just a matter of how far he can carry it. If he doesn’t want any part of the mile and a quarter he can still provide a good pace for Essential Quality.
I have no idea what to expect from MANDALOUN. He made a nice appearance on the track working in company, but it’s very hard to excuse his last race. Horses just do not win the Derby off that poor a performance. Once again, the talent is there; we have seen it on several occasions. It just looks like they are taking a shot, hoping the last race was an aberration and he can return to his past form. But it is asking a lot.
GET HER NUMBER is getting a little buzz the way he was finishing late in the Arkansas Derby and the fact he is a Grade 1 winner. But were Caddo River and Concert Tour simply tiring coming home the last three-eighths in :39 3/5. Peter Miller is always dangerous, but he will have to really improve to be a factor. If you feel he is worth a play at a monster price you will be getting gigantic odds for a Grade 1 winner who did show big improvement in his second start back.
I didn’t think they were going to run DREAM SHAKE, but so far he’s still in there. He is another with a big future, but it looks to be down the road. Although his two stakes efforts were not bad at all, finishing third both times, he really hasn’t shown enough to suggest he is ready for this big a test.
Still waiting to get in is KING FURY, despite having made his 3-year-old debut only two weeks ago in the Lexington Stakes. As impressive as he looked winning with authority it is asking a lot to go 1 ¼ miles off one 1 1/16-mile race with so little bottom under him this year. If he does get in it will then be another two weeks to the Preakness, which looks like a more realistic target for him.
Here are the fastest last-out winners on Thoro-Graph and Beyer:
Thoro-Graph
Essential Quality 0
Highly Motivated 1 ¼
Known Agenda 1 ½
Soup and Sandwich 1 ¾
Dynamic One 2
Rock Your World 2 ¾
Beyer
Rock Your World 100
Hot Rod Charlie 99
Essential Quality 97
Highly Motivated 97
Midnight Bourbon 96
Known Agenda 94
Medina Spirit 94
Brisnet
Essential Quality 102
Rock Your World 102
Highly Motivated 102
Known Agenda 101
Hot Rod Charlie 96
Thanks for the heads up about this site. Love your anaysis and looking forward to your next column. It seems to me that the exotics should pay well as there are so many evenly matched horses or horses who are so lightly raced that a break out performance could be in the cards.
New Derby Rankings are up in the BLUE SPACE. Will keep it updated if any changes tomorrow
Am I stupid for not knowing what the blue space is? Help me out folks.
Look at the top right of this page, Sally. Click “Derby Rankings: Week 15”
Down time to Derby draw
I like the idea of establishing the Points Leaderboard as the order for post position selection. It may even encourage connections to run their horses in more points races.
Get your butt over to the new one.
Get your mudders ready I have feeling it’s going to rain.
Feeling? forecast is for great weather.
Brad Cox is one of the best trainers in the game today, period.
He is about to run horses in the Kentucky Derby for the first time in his career, including the presumptive post time favorite.
Sometimes it seems the “racing gods” make some of the best trainers in the history of this game pay their dues, before a win comes their way, and some never get so lucky. He faces a tall task in his first try, even with the favorite.
For sure he’s good. “Changing of the guard”.
Hot Rod Charlie and Lava Man have arrived at CHD. Both looking fabulous! Think the winner of the Derby will be one of these three: Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie or Rock Your World.
Best of luck to all and safe racing!!
Last week Cezanne ran 1:14 3/5..106 Beyer……yesterday 1:08 2/5…105 Beyer…..WHAT would it take for a 120 anymore? Best Pal ran a dozen around 115, so….are the Beyer people changing how they score a race? Best Pal was real good BUT….won exactly zero Eclipse Awards, seems like they got higher numbers 30 years ago….
105 Beyer for Flightline. Imagine if he had been asked to run even a little
Wow! Justify had a 104, but at 7f.
Was there a reason why Sadler brought him slower for an appearance?
Colt had an “ankle issue” last year, according to a report.
The Kentucky Derby is some sort of supraorganism.
There is a second part to my lemons forever story if anyone is interested. If not, I’m glad because it’s a real heartache. I took in $400 with me that oaks day. I left $800 under the floor mat for the derby. I dropped 50 win and place on her. Two hundred show on wait a while. When the oaks race had arrived I had $30 left. I had pieced together the winning superfecta for a dollar ($24). It paid over 40k. While waiting in line to bet I was listening to the simulcast. I know who was extolling the virtues of the oaks derby double. I didn’t know I was sitting on a big one. I bought into it. I boxed six derby runners with wait a while. I boxed six oaks runners with sweetnorthersaint. Missed them both for the same $24. I watched the race with a dollar in my pocket and a beer in my hand. Weird damn feeling being congratulated by buddies while feeling like a dope. Case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. And being malleable. I came back on sweetnorthernsaint in the Preakness too. I’ve got a framed Churchill giveaway poster of Barbaro in my garage to remind me of who I am.
At least you won big on Lemons Forever.
…Not only that, he’s the only horse in the entire field to put triple-digit Brisnet figures in all three pace categories of a race. In the nine-furlong Remsen back on Dec 5th, Brooklyn Strong’s numbers were 101(E1), 107(E2) and 101(LP). The Beyer was 94.
Oops, posted the previous in the wrong thread and I see Eddie beat me to the punch on ‘Strongs figs anyhow. Should have known better.
LOL
Would that be the floor mat inside your front door?
Passenger side. I like the extra level of protection. I set limits. I do.
This is getting ridiculous. Brooklyn Strong, a horse with only 10 points is going to slip in the entries.
Which brings me to this question…. does a horse have to have at least 1 point to enter the Derby? What if only 19 horses with any points want to run….. is the unwanted 20th position then open to anyone to enter? Just thinking about my earlier choice, Prevalence. Could he enter if there aren’t enough point earners to enter? I know it’s a bizarre thought, but I don’t recall this point ever being covered before.
The increased amount of defections belies the notion that this year’s Derby is wide open. This is Rock Your World’s Derby to lose, period. RYW not EQ will be the post time favorite. The buzz is getting louder.
No requirement to have ANY points. Who knows? Could be a couple of last minute surprise entries at this rate. And I agree that RYW may go off favored, even though I have faith in Essential Quality. The horse is all class.
I would bet my kid’s college fund that Essential Quality is favored when they spring’em….
Mr. Big News and Money Moves got in last year with zero points.
Don’t dismiss Brooklyn Strong. He ran a big race in the Wood in his first start of the year. Bred to run all day.
We were just talking about Brisnet figures. In the Remsen, Brooklyn Strong had pace figures of 101 E1, 107 E2, and 101 LP, along with a speed figure of 107. And Known Agenda was a distant third in that race. A $5k purchase. Debuted in a maiden claimer. Trainer has never had a horse in the Derby, and Brooklyn Strong is his only graded stakes winner. What a story it would be!
Add to the story…Umberto Rispoli will ride Brooklyn Strong.
Nice to see a 5k 2yo purchase make it to the dance.
If Baffert trained RYW, then yeah…he could be the favorite. But Sadler isn’t a money magnet like Baffert. EQ will be a clear favorite and RYW will be a clear second favorite.
Last four BC Juvenile winners to win their final preps (with Derby finish):
2018 Good Magic (2nd)
2017 Classic Empire (4th)
2016 Nyquist (1st, favorite)
2007 Street Sense (1st, favorite)
Sorry…Street Sense lost his last prep by a nose.
I also think Curlin was favorite in Street Sense’s Derby?….
SS was 4.90-1. Curlin was 5-1.
They just said Caddo River out and nothing else and that was during the show showing the works this morning. Kings Fury still looking good.
With Caddo River out, there’s little chance for a quick pace. Half mile should be around 47s. Getting in is Brooklyn Strong, now the THIRD horse in the field with just one 3yo race. Hey, there’s still hope for Triple Tap. 😉
According to drf’s Grening,
With Caddo River out, that opens the door for Brooklyn Strong to get in the Derby. Remsen winner is scheduled to work later this a.m. at Parx and his status may be determined then. Would have to be here by 11 a.m. Tuesday. “A lot of moving parts,” trainer Danny Velazquez said.
Aargh! That changes everything. Moving a couple closers down. Elevating midnight bourbon and Medina spirit.
…more than a couple. Aye yai yai. Hello rock.
Greatly increases Rock Your World’s chances if there is no other speed. Of course, if he doesn’t break well for some reason, there’s always Hot Rod Charlie.
Just read Caddo River was starting to get a fever, blood work off which is why he got pulled.
Morning Steve:
I read how much you liked Kings Fury work.
I thought RYW was just as good, opinion please?
Respectfully
John
His last three works have been almost identical…all strong
Ty
I agree
GL and miss ya on Byk.
King Fury will be my single in the horizontals. Known Agenda is right there. I like o Besos and sainthood to jump up. I believe essential quality and highly motivated will run their race and possibly be there for the minors. Will sprinkle in mandaloun, hot rod Charlie, and dynamic one in the deeper verticals. Starrininmydreams gets my obligatory play if he makes it off the AE list. That’s half the field. Everybody else beats me.
Pool 1 ($50 total)
Tapit $20
Curlin $15
Ghostzapper $5
$1 exacta key box king Fury with essential quality, life is good, pickin’ time, scarred, all others ($10)
Pool 2,3,4 no bets
Pool 5 ($50 total)
$1 exacta key box mandaloun with essential quality, hot rod, o Besos, Weyburn, all others ($10)
$2 exacta key box o Besos with concert tour, essential quality, greatest honor, highly motivated, hot rod, mandaloun, midnight bourbon, helium, Weyburn, all others ($40)
The post position draw is fun but not that important to me due to the simple fact that you can’t predict how the horses are going to come out of there anyway. You get post seven or eight and get slammed, it doesn’t matter. Having said that, hoping rock gets the one hole and comes back a safe and sound fifth or sixth place.
Ha! Half the field. We’re polar opposites. I could wind up betting just one horse…to win. Possibly adding in a longshot. Could be Known Agenda along with…uh…maybe…Super Stock. 🙂
I agree about the posts. You can’t predict a clean start, regardless of post position.
Hard to bet just one in the verticals, but I get it. It’s ridiculous. Lol. Have a good one. My entire picture has changed though now without Caddo. Still love the Curlins on top.
Steve, what’s your take on Hot Rod Charlie’s high knee action?
The 8th race at Churchill in about 3 minutes is a dress rehearsal for the Derby as it is using the 20-horse-starting-gate… this year will take 20 horses unlike last year…
That is very exciting……a possible STAR ……7th race at SA…….FLIGHTLINE………SADLER has a monster……..would like to know why the long layoff……..but no bad signs……ran 108 change…..could have ran at least 3 lengths faster……1st out?….
There was a guy on this blog who talks a lot about not getting carried away by sensational debuts. Who was that? 😉
not me……any horse can get worse…..
He is a tapit………very very headstrong in his works…..needs to relax……
xbtv they had a hard time slowing him down……….
Flightline, looked impressive. Lol. Something else.
what the heck?……….i know what a good horse looks like……….YOU CAN’T LOOK ANY BETTER………OMG
Exactly, that was a phenomenal first start.
Million dollar yearling purchase bred by Summer Wind. Another late developer by Tapit.
Along with Triple Tap, Summer Wind has two extremely exciting colts and if they win Grade 1s…
At the very least, it’s exciting to anticipate the next start for both.
For sure, and with that talent you hope for the best. Summer Wind deserves their success they are buying the broodmares to make an impact. Exciting for racing overall.
FLIGHTLINE was really impressive … Looks like Sadler will be loaded this year…!
A Tapit showing incredible speed is always scary.!
With that pedigree 10f shouldn’t be a problem. Flightline was a little washy before the start but had no impact. Just sensational first start.
Yes, extremely impressive and with a “look” and pedigree to go along (I didn’t say “long”, but probably that too). It’s very early but my initial thought as he passed the line was that this could very be the best Tapit colt ever. Difficult to imagine that he won’t later be standing at stud. To me, he and Life Is Good (know you don’t agree with latter) appear to be the standouts of this crop. Triple Crown races this year, true talent-wise, starting to remind me of 1966 when both Buckpasser and Graustark were unable to compete.
Interesting comment and may well be true with regard to Flightline, being the best Tapit colt. Early times but the promise is there. Having Flightline and Triple Tap both in California seems problematic, I know you’re not too keen on Triple Tap though. Greatest Honour is another high class Tapit colt to come back as well.
Any you like in the 2,000 Guineas? I’m looking forward to see how St Mark’s Basilica has progressed over winter.
Not that partial to any 2000 G entrants. Love this year’s euro 3 yr. old filly group. So many I admire.
Yes, not a particularly strong 2,000 Guineas and you’re right about the fillies, overall they appear superior to the colts.
Steve, I know you look at Brisnet’s pace ratings. What do you think about this?: Since 2000, only 3 Derby winners (MaxSec considered a winner) did not earn triple digits for at least one of the three pace numbers in the final prep. They were Nyquist, Super Saver, and Mine That Bird (sloppy Derbies for the last two). Triple digits were common for E2 and LP, but only three Derby winners (Justify, Chrome, Big Brown) earned triple digits in E1.
Maybe being up close very early isn’t as important as I thought. Runners in the current field that have at least one triple-digit figure are Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Rock Your World, Super Stock, Bourbonic, Medina Spirit, Caddo River, Highly Motivated, and Soup and Sandwich — almost half the field!
Those figs are all relative. For instance if a horse has a 106 LP and a 78 and 82 early it takes something away from the LP. I’m only interested in horses who can in the 90s and then a triple-digit number or better still triple digit numbers in two of the three categories. The reason the E1 figs are slow is because we are two-turning these horses into dullsville and the point system and omission of sprints has deprived the Derby of true speed horses.
Thanks for the reply, Steve. It sounds like your first example is similar to being a case in which you’re skeptical of a 12s final eighth when the horse was going 50s for the first half. You may have accidentally omitted a word or more after “horses who can…”; but if you just meant “horses who can RUN in the 90s and then…” , there’s only one that fits that profile: RYW has a 91 LP with triple digits in the first two categories. Soup and Sandwich nearly qualifies with your secondary requirement: 89 91/ 101.
RUN is correct. I usually get to see Brisnet PPs but havent yet so I have no idea what the pace figures are. It’s a good tool I will have to live without this year.
No excuse now!
kentuckyderby[dot]com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/PPs_20210414_Derby_Contenders.pdf
Thanks for the PPs, Eddie!
Steve, regarding Helium, if I remember correctly, you previously posted about 3 historical statistics that he’s trying to overcome, would you mind reposting those?
Thank You!
8 week layoff, having only one start at 3, ,and having never run farther than 1 1/16 miles. Side note — he is a beautiful moving horse and makes a great presence on the track.
Thank you very much!
Steve
Following up on your impressions of Super Stock’s workout this morning at Churchill off his win in the Ark. Derby.
Your input is greatly appreciated.
Good solid work and he did it easily. Asmussen doesnt usually ask for speed so this was typical. Good maintenance work
Get Her Number out, Keepmeinmind in. First three finishers of the BC Juvenile now in Derby.
Thanks for the Update Steve…!
Past Derbies come to mind: 2007 (Street Sense, Circular Quay, Great Hunter), 2012 (Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause) and 2018 (Good Magic, Solomini, Bolt D’Oro)
Good stuff Nelson.
and before you were born ….. 🙂
2005: Wilko, Afleet Alex, Sun King
1995: Timber Country, Eltish, Tejano Run
1994: Brocco, Blumin Affair, Tabasco Cat
1985: Chief’s Crown, Tank’s Prospect, Spend A Buck
Keepmeinmind…perhaps the only horse to win its first race AFTER the BC Juvenile. 😮
I should have said, perhaps the only horse to win its first race in a graded stakes IMMEDIATELY after the BCJ.
Make sure you read my expansive comments on him in the Final Rankings. There is a lot about him that needs mentioning.
Of course I will! 🙂
Weather forecast for Louisville, May 1
Partly cloudy skies. High around 70F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.
[fingers crossed]
Steve, I unthinkingly made the mistake of inserting a post about the KDFW below Sally and Nelson’s praise for your nostradamic insights in past editions of “The Derby Dozen.” It’s so buried in yesterday’s thread, unless you seek it out, you’ll probably never notice it. Anyhow, was just curious what your opinion is if you do get a chance to go back to read it. Thank you
Whether it makes sense or not, Churchill Downs isnt about to list odds for 350 horses and payoffs. They like the controlled environment of dictating the horses and the odds. They are not into 1,000-1 odds. It’s frustrating seeing them blow the listed horses and putting horses on who dont belong and you canr bet a horse who should be on there.
Thanks for the feedback, Steve. From a bettor’s perspective, would be beyond cool to dive into those kind of odds!!
…And you’re so right when it comes to some of Churchill’s choices for separate betting interests! Look no further than Bezos (unraced at the time) as a prime example.
Nice ! Work by Rock this am. 1/53 in hand…. 5F in 59.20 and he wanted to keep running !
Yes indeed, a very impressive work. Fingers crossed that RYW ships well, and gets in a few gallops over the Churchill track.
Agree ! 🙂
I’ve always figured that, unless a horse has already shown he doesn’t ship well, I won’t worry about it. Besides, what if a horse had shipped previously and didn’t run a good race? Maybe it was the travel, but maybe it was something else.
RYW will be the KD winner unless something unforeseen happens.
When Get Her Number is likely withdrawn from consideration, Keepmeinmind will get in. Jeez….at least GHN is improving. The Keeper is going in the WRONG direction.
Steve Pollock of Thorograph likes Sainthood….
Really, his Thoro-Graph numbers are all pretty slow
Steve Pollock is not alone in liking Sainthood. This Mshawish colt has all the makings of a “Street Fighter” something you like to see in a 20 horse field. Look no further than the way he fought on in the Jeff Ruby Stakes, during the stretch drive. His sire and dam sire, Lemon Drop Kid were both G1 winners in route races. He’s a late foul (5-15-2018), so he’s a little behind in maturity, versus the other Derby runners. In addition to the abundance of stamina reflected on both sides of his pedigree, he could be carrier of the large-heart gene. Just something to ponder. I’ll be using Sainthood in my exotic wagers.
For all you King Fury fans, his work this morning was one of the best Derby works I’ve seen in 30 years. I write about it in detail on the Rankings, but I now have to consider him a very serious horse, one start or not. He looked that good.
Ward has been pretty low key, but he is as sharp as they come. The horse put in a nice long sustained drive in the Jeff Ruby I don’t know if he can get past everybody but he’ll get past a lot of them. Thanks for all the information and expert observations, You are The Derby Dozen Master!
Thanks but wrong horse. LOL
Doh! Well, everything but the first part.
I think you’re confusing King Fury with Like The King.
He hugged the rail big dog. Woof. Woof.
I think he’s the one.
Love hearing King Fury had the best Derby work you’ve seen in 30 years. I have $200.00 on him at Circa Sports with odds of 150-1 !!
I also have $200.00 on Rock Your World with odds of 50-1 .
I live in Vegas. They still do not have a contract with Churchill. This makes me bet the futures . Keeping my fingers crossed !!!
$$$$$
Mark, are you telling us that Churchill will not allow live betting on the KD in Vegas for every casino/race book? I find that very hard to believe!!!
Yes. Also can not bet at all the tracks owned by Churchill. It has been like that for over 400 days. Some casinos will book a Kentucky Derby bet with odds that they set. It really sucks.
Just found this on line . Looks like they voted 2 days ago to allow it this year ……. Nevada regulators vote to allow betting on Kentucky Derby
Sometimes these betting arrangements can get complicated. I.e,, I have a friend in Maine who used to have a TwinSpires account and legally made bets from Maine. New governor takes office and she makes an exclusive deal with a company called Hollywood Races. This is now the only ADW vehicle allowed to operate in Maine. So, naturally, TwinSpires (Churchill) is pissed and refuses to allow any betting on the KD in Maine.
I always thought that if a state allows online betting on horseraces that it would thus allow an open market for all wagering providers? Apparently not, or TwinSpires would have filed suit????
As usual, the bettor gets hurt in these squabbles.
Actually, the exclusive license to accept bets on horseraces in Maine is owned by Penn National. Of course, CDI and Penn National have been adversaries for quite a while.
Mark:
I live in Las Vegas too: that is why I wager my Derby futures offshore. I have a small wager on King Fury at 175-1 from months ago: I am glad to have another starter!
Best of luck on your wagers!
biggy – 175-1…Love it !! Best of luck to you also !
Wow, $10k if Rock wins—I was in Reno a few years ago, they wouldn’t allow anything over a $20 wager on a price like that, I came away thinking Nevada wasn’t the place to bet horses…
Matthew – Circa allows you to bet up to $200.00 , then they change the odds and you can bet up to $200.00 again.
I’ve got a good feeling Mandaloun could sneak into the trifecta or possibly win it all? Will have him in a WPS, Exacta Box and my Trifecta tickets. Love his last 2 workout. I don’t know what happened in the Louisiana Derby? But, he is looking great and I expect a huge run from him. The other 2 are Known Agenda and Highly Motivated. It’s between these 3 contenders, my mind is made up. Essential Quality or Rock Your World will run 2nd. Nice final analysis Steve and good luck
to all.
Hey, RJessie! History is against him winning. A piece of the action…perhaps. If the connections can’t figure out why he ran so poorly, how can they correct anything by Saturday?
So the rain held off, fast dry track this morning and they went out. Nothing of course from Medina Spirit, just a walk and jog with the pony as he just got there. Was watching Known Agenda and really does seem to carry his head lower then the rest. Like he is trying to keep that nose out front. King Fury was solo but can’t recall if this was from today or a replay from yesterday. Nice gallop out and a big striding horse. A little green kind of looking around a bit but once he got into the work could tell he was happy.
Rosie Napravinik was there looking at the works and will be back Wednesday again. Liked her insights on the Asmussen trainees. The long walks to the track allowing the horses to look around, riders wear watches to check during the works and the long walks back from the track as well. She was also noting some horses just don’t like working in the morning. Why some get paired up and others don’t.
Many works were 3 lanes away from the rail to slow them down a bit. Brad sent all his oiut very early but he was spotted up above with his phone watching the rest of the works.
So the rest of the horses get here Sunday. Post draws Monday and Tuesday both at 10:45 AM EST and can be watched live.
Hoping to see some clips of them coming off the vans and getting walked around Monday. Very much looking forward to what Steve has to share next and the post draws. Then the weather. Happy weekend to all!
It’s been fun following this years “Derby Rankings”. It just wouldn’t be Derby without it. Thanks Steve for all your time and effort. I still haven’t come up with a favorite. I’ll be rooting for several. All I can say is May they all come home safe.
Amen, Peg and thank you
Mandaloun …..worked great because he is headstrong…..dont go on works……he uses a gag bit, for this reason…..as you know, i said he DOES have an excuse, he ran off after jock took him back because of trouble….so this is not a great horse for relaxing….something important for a derby……
like i said…..these horses work great…..disregard the work hype….Soup is the same way….Caddo?…..same….most speed horses work great…..
Then, people dont like Known agenda? He is Not a good worker…….
DON’T GO ON THESE works…..these horses are all ready
Aargggghhhhh, I heard Keepmeinmind might be a last minute entry, by inference on the drf. I want KingFury in as a long shot play in exotics.
King Fury is in.
Yes!
Another BCJuvenile alumni.
Two wins in three starts at CD.
I assume he’s named after the Gypsy King.
Just to let everyone know that the final Rankings will be posted Sunday night and will be in the BLUE SPACE with the website’s Derby newsletter in the White Space.
That sounds too confusing. Could you just send it to me by email?
Just remember it will be in the darker color of Secretariat’s blinkers and will be waiting for you when wake up on Monday morning.
Oh. OK. God willing.
You guys are too funny!!
Eddie, just saw your reply to Pro-vet “so did my dog”….I couldn’t stop laughing!!
Thanks, Bruce. But it’s true. And my dog knows almost nothing about horseracing.
Many thanks Steve
It’s been one hell of a ride on this year’s Derby Trail. Thanks to your Derby Rankings, we’ve learned all we need to know on how each horse stacks up with the other contenders. You make the handicapping process so much easier with the info that you’ve provided.
I’m looking forward to your “Final Derby Rankings: Week 15.
Both of us were the first to hop on the Rock Your World bandwagon. I have full faith that RYW will be wearing the Roses, on the first Saturday in May. 🙂
It’s nice to have faith but don’t bank on it, Bill. Comes from someone who held futures on Empire Maker (25/1), Point Given (40/1) and Quality Road (100/1).
No worries Point Unforgiven, I never count my chickens before they hatch.
Bottom line, Rock Your World checks a lot of boxes, IMO. If he gets beat, so be it. I’ve got him boxed with ALL, in my $2.00 exacta wager, as well as my $100.00 win bet, so even if manages to finish 2nd, I’ll still collect.
Good luck with your Derby pick. BTW, who is your top pick?
Thanks.
I like Rock Your World, too, and lucky for you, jinx-wise, don’t have any future bets on him.
Thanks Bill. He adds a lot of intrigue of the race
Your welcome Steve.
I’m hoping for a fast, dry track on Derby Day. I’ve seen forecasts of rain, (30 to 40%), fingers crossed that it doesn’t rain on our parade. I’ve got a new white baseball cap, with red bolt letters, RYW on the face of it. I’ll be wearing that cap on Derby Day at the OTB facility that I frequent.
BTW, I like your choice of wording, (“he adds a lot of intrigue of the race”). This year’s Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be the most intriguing in recent memory.
King Fury is now in the Derby. He’ll have high odds.
I think King Fury needs one more defection because Mr. Baffert decided to put Hozier back in.
My bad, I just heard that Baffert changed his mind again!
No. Thankfully, Hozier is out.
i told everyone he wasnt going……
So did my dog.
Eddie, my comment was intended for pro vet.
Yes. You replied correctly. It’s a bit difficult on this site to follow the replies in a thread. But you got it right.
Thanks!!!
LMAO!!
Amazing couple days ago you felt the need to joke regarding death of Mulitplier. Attempting to wrap my brain around what type of individual does something like this? Unreal!
Humor is one of the best ways to deal with things in life……why do you not know this?…..ever been to a funeral? When someone makes a joke? It helps……..
You seem to think YOU have more feelings, class, care more than other people?……
This is the problem with the PC culture……it’s like people are in a contest to show THEY care more than other people……
Humor is in the eye of the beholder……
Was the guy that wrote the joke after the Nasa Challenger tragedy a horrible person? NO…..
What does NASA stand for?……Needs another Seven Astronauts….
It’s a shame that English Teacher died…..now she is History
Tang ….was the official drink of the NASA ………now?…..it is OCEAN SPRAY
dOES this mean we were not all sad that they died?……no…….
So yes…….i said “it was such a shame…….they were about to CLONE him……..
We are all different…..i retired a horse i know could have made some money, because he was at risk from a bad ankle…….Humor is not truth………
Multiplier died?, of what? I must of overlooked that, wow!! Godspeed, Rest In Peace big guy.
Yes and the “classless one” made a joke about it.
When and how? His works have looked very good
Just for the hell of it, I combined the four Speed Figures that were assigned to the current 2021 KD field. After combining those four speed numbers, I divided by 4, to come up with an average number. It came as no surprise that Rock Your World had the highest average number, which was 107.25. Another check mark to add to his impressive resume’.
BTW, those Speed Figures are: Beyer, Bris, Time-Form and Equibase.
Good thing you didn’t include the Thoro-Graph numbers.
Not all Thoro-Graph numbers were available on the 20 horses that are currently entered. In which case it would be pointless to include the Thoro-Graph numbers that Steve has provided on a limited number of horses, in his top 16 or so.
Just as a suggestion, dismiss the average number that I came up with, and use Thoro-Graph numbers exclusively.
Have a nice day EddieF.
Again……you missed the joke……..TG numbers are small……..it would make the AVG really low……it was funny joke…….you again need to relax……
I really need to refresh the page before I post. I like your clarification better than mine.
The only joke on this blog is you.
thanks…….you keep getting angry…….i have never………
PASSIVE AGRESSIVE…..because you didnt get his joke
“Just as a suggestion, dismiss the average number that I came up with, and use Thoro-Graph numbers exclusively.
Have a nice day EddieF.”
Have you ever considered teaming up with EddieF? You two would make a great “Comedy Act”.
The only question, which one would play the role as the “Straight Man” and who would be the “Stooge”
Let me guess, EddieF could be the “Straight Man” (like Bud Abbott) and you, pro vet, could be the “Stooge” (like Lou Castello).
How about pro vet? I could even be the Manager of your “Comedy Act”. Step right up folks! 🙂
Thats the thing…….have you ever seen me name call?……saying someone is ignorant is not name calling……
It doesnt matter what you call me, i dont get mad….i wont call you anything……again you get mad over nothing….
You didnt get his joke……yet you get mad at Eddie……
I’ll leave you with this parting shot, “He who laughs last, laughs best”. I’ll be laughing, and thinking of you pro vet, when I cash my $100.00 win ticket on RYW, at 31-1. In addition, I’ll get another laugh when I cash my $2.00 Exacta wager. I boxed RYW with ALL, in hopes a bomber finishes 2nd for a big payoff.
More than likely, you’ll come down with a serious case of “sour grapes”, when RYW crosses the wire first.
I would suggest two tablespoons of Pepto-Bismol, every two hours.
lol 4real!!!!
I don’t know what I did to deserve such an affront. A straight man? Me? Never!
Bill, you’re on point.
Thanks Mike
I learned several years ago the pro vet is not playing with a full deck. He’s got some serious issues going on that need to be addressed at the professional. The sooner the better.
I embrace my narcissism,but unlike him I’m bright. He just thinks he is. Huge difference! lmao
Clowns have big feet……
Yes, we do.
* eye roll*
Thoro-Graph….low numbers are best numbers. Added to the others … would result in much lower average. It’s a joke. Not a problem, though. I’m accustomed to it.
EddieF
I’m well aware on how Thoro-Graph numbers work, the lower the better. In retrospect, it would be hard to compile speed figures with Thoro-Graph numbers anyway. So why include them?
So…….YOU get mad at a whole website…..and leave…..you take jokes the wrong way……
But i am the bad one….for using humor?
Frankly, pro vet, your about as funny as cancer. End of story.
I embrace my narcissism,but unlike him I’m bright. He just thinks he is. Huge difference! lmao
My mom died of cancer…….you are mad at nothing…..
I’m sorry about your mom.
My dad died of cancer. My your mom and my dad rest in peace.
Bill, sorry to hear regarding your dad.
Bill,
I was curious what the TG numbers would do to your rankings and just wanted to see what the general top five would look like. I used Beyer, Brisnet, last 1f, last 3f and TG and then totaled the rankings and lowest number is best. So, EQ was 1st in Bris, TG, Last 1f, Last 3f and 3rd in Beyer so his total is 7.
EQ 7
HM 10
RYW 16
HRC 17
KA 19
What does this mean? Maybe EQ will be the favorite when the gate opens? I think this particular ranking is unfair to RYW, though, due to his fast early fractions, big lead and easy win on the tiring SA dirt.
KF
Evening Killerfrog
“What does this mean”? That’s an excellent question Killerfrog. I’m not sure how to factor in Thoro-Graph numbers with the Beyers, Bris, Equibase and Time-Form numbers, but as you mentioned Essential Quality has the lowest ( 0 ) followed by Highly Motivated at 1 1/4, Known Agenda at 1 1/2, Soup and Sandwich at 1 3/4, Dynamic One at 2 and RYW at 2 3/4. I would guess it all depends on how much faith you have in Thoro-Graph numbers. Since you have to pay to acquire T-G numbers, I don’t use them.
Most of us rely on Steve to provide those T-G numbers. From what I’ve noticed, Steve is a great believer in T-G numbers, keeping a close watch on their progression, or lack of same.
Speed Numbers aside, my top 6 Derby picks are as follows:
1) RYW
2) Known Agenda
3) Essential Quality
4) Highly Motivated
5) Hot Rod Charlie
6) Mandaloun
Good luck with your picks Killerfrog
Bill,
We are both having fun before the draw.
I like your top 6. Mandaloun is very interesting to me at the odds he’ll get. My thinking is that out of your top 6 my opinion is the winner could be 1 or 2 and at 30-1+ maybe the 6. Your entire 6 plus my added 7) O Besos and 8) Soupy could be 2nd maybe and then maybe add to those another 2 in the 3rd spot (for me Medina for sure) and the trip is 3 X 7 X 8 or $168 for $1. *disclaimer: if my math is off, it was the beer.
If it hits it would pay. Good luck to you too Bill,
Seth
BTW, Killerfrog listed below were the top “average” speed numbers that were complied from the 4 “Speed Figures”
1) RYW: 107.25
2) Essential Quality: 106.50
3) Highly Motivated: 106.25
4) Known Agenda: 105
5) Hot Rod Charlie: 103.75
Bill,
You are using Beyer, Bris and what are the other two?
Thanks,
Seth
Bill,
Sorry, I see you are using Time-Form and Equibase. I need to redo my numbers by adding those. Can you please let me know the Time-Form and Equibase numbers for the general top 5 listed above?
Thanks,
Frog
Bill,
Sorry, I see you are using Time-Form and Equibase. I need to redo my numbers by adding those. Can you please let me know the Time-Form and Equibase numbers for the general top 5 listed above?
Thanks,
Seth
No problem Seth
RYW: Time-Form, 124, Equibase, 103
E.Q.: Time-Form, 118, Equibase, 109
H.M.: Time-Form, 118, Equibase, 108
K.A.: Time-Form, 113, Equibase, 112
HRC: Time-Form, 117, Equibase, 99
As you can see Known Agenda has the highest Equibase Speed Figure,at 112, which is the figure I consider the most important relating to the “overall” speed of any given race.
Good luck Seth.
Bill,
Okay, using the 4 speed figures you used and then adding TG by ranking just these 5:
1. EQ 9 points
2. *tie RYW and HM 11 points
4. KA 19
5 HRC 20
sB
Hidden Stash will finally get pace to run at…..always comes with his run, big longshot can get a slice, nobody said WIN…he will be closing….Bejarano knows him, he needs pace for any chance. He will get pace.
Seems to be the forgotten horse, if he gets a nice trip a placing wouldn’t surprise. Always tries.
Here is what Steve wrote about wire to wire winner War Emblem in the week before the 2002 Derby:
“Bob Baffert sent out War Emblem for a six-furlong work a few minutes before Harlan’s Holiday. Jet-black in appearance, the newly purchased Illinois Derby winner is quite an eyeful. Unlike Harlan’s Holiday, he broke off steady and relaxed, and got into a good groove right from the beginning. He built up a good head of steam coming to the quarter pole, which carried him several paths off the rail. With exercise rider Dana Barnes letting him finish up on his own, he came home his final quarter in about :24 flat to complete the six furlongs in 1:12 3/5. Also unlike Harlan Holiday, War Emblem kept going at a strong clip past the wire and all the way around the clubhouse turn, galloping out seven furlongs in 1:25 4/5 and pulling up a mile in 1:39.
For a speed horse, whose ability to carry that speed a mile and a quarter in a 20-horse field is in question, this was an excellent work, and provided him with a solid foundation going into the race. He’ll be picking up 12 pounds off his Illinois Derby victory, but if he should get loose on the lead and allowed to get into the rhythmic stride that decimated his field at Sportsman’s Park, he could hang around for quite a while. And if no one is bold enough to take him on in the first six furlongs, he could be a tough horse to catch. He is coming off two monster ThoroGraph numbers, and watch out if he runs anywhere near that on Derby Day. We will be discussing the ThoroGraph speed figures on the first slow work day, and some of them are quite revealing.”
I wonder what the week will hold as to Steve’s comments about Rock Your World? Hmmmm….
Wow where did you dig that up from? Lol
I was watching old Ky Derby replays thinking about how the pace might go this year and I thought of wire to wire War Emblem from years ago. I wondered then what Steve Haskin must have said about War Emblem in the days before the derby so I googled it and after a few near misses found the old comments. What you said, Steve, was so prescient, that if anyone had guessed that War Emblem would be out there all alone they might have known he could pull off the win! So is someone 19 years from now going to go digging up your comments from April 2021 to see what you said about a particular horse, maybe Rock Your World? Sure. Someone will!
It was to the bottom left…..of your SHRINE……..right next to the 6th lit candle……..
And to be sure we do revere this man!
Thank you Sally.
Great find Sally, always fun to see comments made before the big race! Nice read on War Emblem Steve!
Funny how you forget what you write
Steve was also spot-on in waiting for Animal Kingdom work on Churchill dirt to better assess his chances. After Animal Kingdom’s final workout on April 30th he wrote: “His first dirt work was very encouraging, going 6 furlongs in 1:13, final quarter in :23 4/5, and galloping out another eighth in a strong :13 2/5, getting his 7 panels in 1:26 2/5. That was enough to make him a “watch out” horse.”
We can check his prophetic column to validate his evaluation: Haskin’s Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?
02 May, 2011 12:59 PM
His closing statement was really really persuasive in favor of the Animal: ” If the proven have proven little, go with the unproven, because you never know what they will prove.”
I remember Steve mentioning boxing Animal Kingdom in his exotics. He also said to have made a win bet on the powerful closer.
Boy, you guys are making me look good. Thank you! Where are you finding all this?
I became a true believer when you predicted Mine That Bird would pass every horse in the field and win by the largest margin since Assault.
How did you see that? I wrote those exact same words and then my dog ate it and I wasnt able to publish it.
We need a set of like, love and haha buttons on this blog.
LOL. Bad dog!
Going way back there. Thought you were writing about horses training at higher altitudes having better lung capacity when they raced at lower altitudes.
And that must ‘ve been a reference to the performance of Firing Line!
I did using Mine That Bird and Canonero as examples
The answer has to do with Google’s market capitalization currently standing around 1.5 trillion dollars …!
I made some great money on Animal Kingdom that year not only because of Animal Kingdom’s powerful drive in the (then) Spiral Stakes but also because of Steve Haskin’s prescient remarks which, while I don’t specifically recall reading, most likely did read closely and digest.
As long as a couple of you are highlighting some of Steve’s blasts from the past, here’s one from one of his former colleagues. The timing is a little off since the fifth and final Pool has come and gone, but what the heck.
In February 2013, Steven Crist, then publisher emeritus for the Daily Racing Form, wrote a column chastising Churchill Downs for their ongoing Luddite approach to the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Introduced in 1999, Crist contended that it was way past time for the Future Wager to be expanded to include individual betting interests on ALL Triple Crown nominated horses:”[H]aving more than 350 possible betting interests would lift prices, create 500/1 and 1,000/1 shots,” Crist wrote in the article.
Consideration was supposedly given for the idea at the time, but it went no further than that. Since then, the only new wrinkle to the Future Wager was the addition of the Sire Pool in 2016… What a joke, as is any excuse of possible bettor confusion, or technical issues over its implementation. In either case, it’s not complicated. Any tote machine capable of handling over 500 possible numbered exacta combinations can easily be programmed to assign those numbers to individual horses. For example, looking back at last year’s Triple Crown nominee list and going alphabetically: (1 with 2) Airstreem, (1/3)Ajaweed, (1/4)All Eyes West … continuing further down the list … (1/21)Attachment Rate, (1/22) August Indy, (1/23)Authentic… and so on.
It goes without saying, if Churchill wants to continue to operate in the Dark Ages, it’s their choice. But why?
I almost posted the following last night, then thought “who the hell am I to put this out there?” But now I feel that I have to because of Sally’s post, and now yours, Nelson. Maybe I was reading the correct words from Steve Haskin all along. Here goes…
We handicap. We handicap. And we handicap. Sometimes we get lucky. Sometimes we are in the right place at the right time. In the last thirty years I have picked 4 KY derby winners; Grindstone, War Emblem, Animal Kingdom, and American Pharaoh. I have picked some stinkers too. The day before Barbaro won the derby I was on my way to the Turfway Park simulcast center underneath there where you could walk out on the apron. I was listening to am radio station everybody listens to out of Louisville. Dallas Stewart was being interviewed and was out of his mind with enthusiasm for Lemons Forever. I was confused enough to believe him. I was on Wait a While pretty hard before that. I arrived. I walked down the stairs and made win and place wagers on lemons and a decent show bet on Wait a while. She ended up being promoted to third following a dq. So, best believe I had Golden Soul and Commanding Curve in my 50 cent trifectas. My only real decent derby scores (everyone knows that knowing what is up and betting what is up are two different things). Have fun. Be smart. Get Lucky. Stay cool.
As an aside, the only thing I ever remember one of my grandmothers saying about horse racing was, “there will never be another Latonia.”
Who was it who wrote that in a twenty horse field you have to take a stand. That is where I am, but upon whom will I stand? Got to be Rock at this point. I see too much ahead for Essential unless he draws the 16 hole.
It’s the Curlin boys for me. On top. Dead heat.
…and what I was trying to say above is -this year, this place feels like the right place at the right time. The winner is out there folks, and the karma is cool in here.
Dream Shake…Pat Day Mile, per drf
Not sure why send him back there….he needs to grow into his frame, good horse….I wouldn’t take a short price, he was gassed in the SA Derby….
Odds at Bet 365
Essential Quality 9-4
Rock Your World 5-1
Highly Motivated 8-1
Known Agenda 8-1
Hot Rod Charlie 9-1
Super Stock 12-1
Medina Spirit 12-1
Bourbonic 14-1
Caddo River 16-1
Dynamic One 20-1
Helium 20-1
Mandaloun 20-1
Like the King 20-1
Soup and Sandwich 25-1
Midnight Bourbon 25-1
Dream Shake 25-1
Sainthood 25-1
all others 33-1 and higher
So…do these odds look to be close to what you think post-time odds will be? They look reasonable to me. There’s often in recent years a 20-1 to 30-1 ML horse that’s bet down to more than half its ML odds…and doesn’t hit the board. Which one this year?
I’d be shocked to see Essential at 9/4…since I’ve never seen 9/4 odds before….that’s 2.25-1….O Besos will get bet down, he won’t be over 33-1……
Not counting the 2020 “not really a derby” Derby, right? A few favorites this century have been close. But yeah…I was thinking 5-2 lowest. Could be 3-1.
Oh…Point Given was 9-5.
I think Rock and Essential will both be heavily bet….and there will be many good prices after that!….
Thanks Eddie for the update. I like the following ante post odds better:
Horse Odds
Essential Quality 5-2
Hot Rod Charlie 6-1
Medina Spirit 8-1
Rock Your World 8-1
Known Agenda 12-1
Highly Motivated 15-1
Mandaloun 15-1
Midnight Bourbon 15-1
Super Stock 20-1
Bourbonic 30-1
Caddo River 30-1
Dynamic One 30-1
Soup and Sandwich 30-1
Helium 50-1
Hidden Stash 50-1
Like the King 50-1
Sainthood 50-1
A valiant effort at prognostication, Nelson. I agree that HRC will be heavily bet (probably lower than whatever his ML will be), but I don’t see him lower than RYW. The only other major disagreement at this point would be Mandy and Super Stock — I’d reverse their odds.
Mandaloun had an excellent workout that the talking heads were simply raving about today on the workout show. Does that change your mind?
Well…maybe…if the talking heads weren’t attached to anything.
its garbage……..those 25-1 shots should be 60-1
Who said that odds are an accurate representation of a horse’s chance to win the race? Longshots are almost always overbet. There’s even a scientific term for it….the Favorite-Longshot Bias.
You need to get the Pro Vet vaccine … prontooooo!
LOL. I have a built-in immunity.
I don’t watch many east coast races, so I’m no expert on Johnny V….have been reading posts about how he has slipped some as a rider, and whenever he comes out west I’m impressed by the guy …I think he & Medina Spirit are flying under the radar, thanks to his 4 length drubbing in the SA Derby….I’m going to use him as one of my top three…..
He could certainly hang on to get a piece. I can see him gaining the lead as they come out of the final turn. But since the Sham Stakes, he hasn’t shown the requisite energy in the late stages of his races.
Matthew, i was thinking the same about Johnny V.; Johnny V seemed rejuvenated with Baffert horses last year. His guidance with Authentic and Gamine was pure mastery. I was hoping that he would move his tack out west, but does not appear that would happen. His is an incredible rider.
Since Ron Anderson has the book for both Rosario and Velazquez, he likes to manage their business on the same circuit ala with the just completed Keeneland meet. After Derby week, he’ll have them both in New York for Belmont and then Saratoga. It would be near impossible to manage those two if they were riding on separate circuits.
NOBODY’S moving their tack out west! By the way I think Gamine runs on Derby Day back there!
I posted on BH about how I think Gamine is as good as any female sprinter in my lifetime—got shouted down…she’s 5 for 5 one turn and three of those races were spectacular….
I know the cali horses ship Sunday but haven’t heard a time yet. They better hope it warms up some!
They pushed up a lot of the oaks and derby works because of the rain coming in.
The sea was angry today, my friends – like an old man trying to send back soup and sandwich in a deli. Soup was full of himself out there.
LOL. Did the great beast appear before you, El Kabong?
Well I’m no biologist but I tell you he was ten stories high if he was a foot.
Titleist.
Giddy Up!
Looked like he put some weight back on. They showed a clip of him when he got to Churchill and he looked very thin. He was very full of himself until settled into the work
I agree on soup an sandwich looking thin on arrival. Sainthood, on the other hand, looked liked he was ready to stomp a mud hole in the middle of derby pie when he got off the bus. He has the “it” factor. Hope he is fast enough. One thing that has happened this year is the horses running out of turfway are doing well on the dirt after exiting races on the tapeta. Like the king scares me for that simple reason.
Whoa, Dynamic One just turned in a beauty. Didn’t look like he was doing much and went 47 and change, out 59 and change. Where’s Bourbonic? I bet he slept in. Slapped the old alarm and rolled over in his hay and snorted at the thought of moving.
Hah! They just announced Bourbonic is running 2 hours late and will work at 9am.
Saw the clip. 4f at 49.60.
Nice work for Sainthood and Known Agenda. Sainthood is going to fatten up exotics. Hopefully we get a rider choice soon.
Work of the day! Medina Spirit, kabooooom…..if you get a chance check it out….
Wishful thinking……. no shot!
LOL. You’re like Michael Scott waiting for any opportunity to reply with “That’s what SHE said!”
You know what Eddie? Alot of people say alot of things.
“That’s what”
-she
ok VET thats gotta be you!
ok its not….VET cannot make a post without dots!
Medina is very likable because he keeps trying and he’s a professional in the gate so he’ll get a good position. He is one of 3 entries from a first crop sire and that angle is 5/20 this century.
Get Her Number and Sainthood still no riders? I would love to see Kent Desormeaux pick up the mount on either of these two. He has won several times, and has given excellent rides on non winners, but closers Exaggerator and Dullahan. Probably not going to happen but what a resume. He’s skilled in this situation, I’d certainly gain confidence on either of these guys if he got the mount.
Glad to see you’re supportive of Kent— he’s been dissed by several because of his ‘issues’, but when he’s on his game, he’s very good.
he is still very good….but occasional wins at SA is his world, now….and thats still pretty good for a 50 year old….
Forgot about Paddy O’Prado and Imperialism.
Another 3-time winner, Victor Espinoza, is back!
Yes, perfect rider to take advantage of an opening- especially in a race like the Derby.
Contributor “Tiznow the Crown” was enquiring about Mandaloun chances to rebound from a flat-footed showing in the Louisiana Derby. After precise replies indicating a very low likelihood of a significant recovery, he decided to take out the son of Into Mischief from any exotic bet.
Iterating on some examples of improving horses you find the following:
Invisible Ink went from 4th in the Blue Grass Stakes, as an entry favorite, to a shocking second place in the Derby; it was a replica of the huge rebound shown by his sire Thunder Gulch who also emerged from a 4th place in the Blue Grass to win the Derby.
Eddie F also mentioned the gigantic improvement of Bluegrass Cat from his 4th place in the Blue Grass 21 lengths behind Sinister Minister who won by 13 lengths. Bluegrass Cat was 1.8 to 1 favorite in that final prep and also the prohibitive favorite in four of his previous races before his runner-up effort in the Derby.
Another analogous case is Denis Of Cork who was 5th in Illinois Derby as odds-on favorite and kind of vindicated himself with a 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.
Should all the horses with less than first-rate last-out races be totally dismissed?
Maybe a win is a tall order for them, but they can very well sneak into the Trifectas and Superfectas.
All of us will face the same dilemma as15 of the 2021 Derby contestants show a first or a second in their last outings; so, Mandaloun’s 6th place looks like an ugly pimple in the Past Performance sheet.
I cannot overlook that Mandaloun was the overwhelming favorite (30 cents to the Dollar) in the LA Derby and odds-on favorite in all his races. He was supposed to finish in front of Midnight Bourbon but was empty coming out the last turn.
Two bullet workouts and powerful connections encourage me to consider him for the exotics … this bold choice may prove very lucrative indeed!
I get the issue with Mandaloun and history, not a good sign to run a poor last prep before the Derby, but I love betting beaten favorites after everyone has jumped off the band wagon! Because now you’ll get double digit odds, so you’ll get value. And like you said, throw him in some tris and supers….and maybe an exacta or two,
I’ll be rooting for him….and hey maybe we get lucky!
Bruce, I think that Medina Spirit would be a better bet under your beaten-favorite angle, though at lower odds than Mandy.
Yes, he’s another one who’ll be good value, although he’ll take some “Baffert factor” money, after being 4-5 to beat RYW and Dream Shake. Never been worse than 2nd in five starts, and people will jump off because he lost his last race.
The son of Protonico is my first choice for the minors.
Medina Spirit
Hot Rod Charlie
Bourbonic
Helium
Mandaloun
Super Stock
Like the King
for third beneath the magnificent three…
How about boxing your best two of those magnificent three, and just go ALL in the 3rd spot. Makes for a lot of fun looking for some 50-1 shot to finish the tri!
Sounds good Bruce … and I am including Known Agenda to second for a $72 Trifecta
Essential Quality, Rock Your World / Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Known Agenda | ALL |
I might be moving ALL two second as well…
Nelson, something to think about is that these colts are not running on lasix this year. Might be important, might not.
That is a good point Davids.
We had commented that the Lassix-free preps did not seem to sway predictability and all outcomes have been logic… except for a couple of regressions (i.e. Mandaloun and Concert Tour) which may or may not be related to the need of the potent diuretic.
But you may be right in that 10 furlongs might be a real differentiator when it comes to the risks of bleeding…
Perhaps the genetics (for stamina) could help in handicapping the Derby this year…
Good points. Also, horses should recover faster from a race. Arkansas Derby, Lexington Stakes runners may be ‘fresher’ than usual. Caddo River ‘may’ take them further than expected, even with the distance question. All speculation of course.
It’s hard to understand the enthusiasm for O’Besos. I would take Helium, Bourbonic, and Sainthood over him, they won or almost won. He came in 3rd, he wasn’t going to win nor pass Midnight Bourbon. He can train all he wants, I predict no better than 8th finish.
Others you mentioned have no shot either.
Mike “No Shot” Relva strikes again!
🙂
Between EQ and Sadler’s horse.
They have a better shot, which is all I said. The myth of the closer who doesn’t make it but will next time is at play with O’Besos, shouldn’t even be in the Derby.
Hozier and a few others are underwater.
He wasn’t going to win…but he was getting to Midnight Bourbon, all right—improving! Pace wasn’t that fast but he was closing, making up ground….and now that he’s in—another improvement and he’s got a heckuva chance at a piece!
He wasn’t getting to Midnight Bourbon, who doesn’t let horses pass him (but doesn’t pass those ahead either).There was a gap at the wire, good closers win. And the closing pace WAS fast.
I think this is a little bit of a myth concerning midnight bourbon. Sure, tiznow exuded this quality, however in the Iroquois, midnight bourbon put up zero fight when sittin on go cruised past. In the risen star, he was not much better when confronted. Good horse to key in third or fourth if you like how beautiful he moves.
he isn’t Tiznow….O Besos was getting to him and from the inside—-watch the race, one more jump and he’s 2nd!
…was referring to comment above mine…”midnight Bourbon, who doesn’t let horses pass him.” I Am invested in O Besos, as has been documented in previous posts.
Sorry Mathew W. I think I might have read yours wrong. I think we are in agreement. Watching the race is what got me on O Besos in pool 5 though.
…and discopartner, just trying to help. Just didn’t want you thinking MB is a tenacious killer when he might not be. Great horse to stay on but not fast enough to win. My opinion. Kind of like Medina spirit. Have fun.
Just a random thought … who would be the best Jockeys if the use of the whip were to be prohibited?
Joel Rosario should be definitively there…
I don’t have an answer, Nelson. But I’ve watched Barbaro’s Derby win many times, and I don’t think that Edgar Prado used the whip AT ALL. I’m certain that he didn’t in the final quarter mile, yet Barbaro destroyed the field in the stretch.
Good question. Julien Leparoux appears reluctant to use the whip. While he doesn’t abuse the horse, he is a sit still rider who lets the horse do all the work. If the horse is not interested, Julien doesn’t seem to encourage them much. His quiet riding style appears to have affected his business…. he’s been on a down slope the last couple of years.
Good point Dewey… Victor Espinoza seems to practice the same style.
Flavin Pratt and John Velasquez, along with Joel Rosario, could easily be as effective without the whip.
The conversation about Homebreds in the Derby has been a familiar one between Steve and his followers. This topic is an interesting and broad one but I would just like to briefly share the Derby scores of these special horses.
After updating the pertinent Stats, we can see that sixty-four (64) Homebred horses have won the Kentucky Derby since its inception in 1875. That tally represents 44% of the 146 Derby editions.
More interestingly is the fact that eleven (11) out of the thirteen (13) Triple Crown Champions only two were offered at Public Auctions (Seattle Slew and Justify).
One can justify the 49 Homebred Derby winners in the 20th Century because the last century involved an era of patrician breeder/owners with utmost passion for the sport of Kings.
Legendary institutions like Belair Stud, the legendary Calumet Farm, King Ranch, Darby Dan Farm, Greentree Stable, Meadow Stable and Claiborne Farm were factories of Derby contenders. Iconic breeders like Colonel E.R. Bradley, Harry Payne Whitney and John E. Madden collectively amassed 10 Derby winners out of 73 starters.
Coming back to more recent times, we can see that ten (10) Homebreds have won the Derby in the last 17 years. This represents 59% striking rate for the horses raised by their owners. This might be useful If you like to play with the law of percentages …
Even Maximum Security is a Homebred who was demoted in favor of another Homebred named Country House.
As if you needed another list to consider, please, allow me to underline the seven Homebred prospects taking part in the 2021 Kentucky Derby:
Essential Quality
Known Agenda
Bourbonic
Mandaloun
Caddo River
Soup and Sandwich
O Besos
Not a bad bunch at all …!
Interesting info Nelson!
Thanks Bruce.
The bond between the Hombebreds and the people around them is unique.
The stories of Homebreds like Northern Dancer, Secretariat, Affirmed, Swale, Smarty Jones, Barbaro and California Chrome are really enticing.
Hate to see Sagamore Farms going away.
Yes DES… it is sad to see those Romantic Times fade away.
I just hope that people savoring the Whiskey Sagamore is producing now could toast to Native Dancer and a great era of Racing.
Nelson Mann
There are two more homebreds to add, namely; Highly Motivated, a Klaravich Stables homebred, and Dynamic One, a Phipps Stable homebred. There are nine homebreds entered in his year’s Derby, almost half the field.
Thanks Bill for the addition.
You are right … I knew I had forgotten some. The group gets even better with Highly Motivated and Dynamic One.
I’m often confused by some transactions. Dynamic One: bred by Phipps Stable, purchased for $725k at Keeneland by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable. Owners now are Repole Stable, Phipps Stable, and St. Elias Stable. Highly Motivated: Breeder and owner are one and the same, Klaravich Stables — yet a sale price of $240k is shown. ????
Money moving from your left pocket to your right pocket?
Phipps retained a piece when partnering up with Repole & Viola. Highly Motivated was part of sale to dissolve original Klaravich partnership. Not uncommon.
Interesting! Thanks.
You had me at…Essential Quality and Known Agenda. 🙂
Thanks for the interesting data.
My pleasure Eddie…!
Glad I am helping you to reinforce your selection… The Trifecta of the Homebreds would not be an uncanny proposition.
One might have reason to consider DYNAMIC ONE a homebred as well… and there’s a very good chance his Jockey will be wearing his breeders Silks during the race.
If you know the history (issues/certain lines etc), you know the history.
Davids, is that a riddle?
Ha ha With homebreds the breeder/owner know the complete history – lines, why that sire, medical, training, growth etc. With the sales you are buying a ‘product’ that has often had a multitude of hands in the production without having all the present and past history supplied.
Gotcha!
Capito!… is like raising your own kids !
With the Derby also runs skipping the Preakness like they do now….gone are those epic races, the 73, 78, 89 battles of Secretariat/Sham, Affirmed/ Alydar, Sunday Silence/Easy Goer….or the Alysheba/ Bet Twice….the 1997 Preakness, what a great horse race— beginning with the 9 minute wait for the outside horse, Free House under a drive the entire race…Silver Charm catching him late by an inch, and Captain Bodget right there, and Touch Gold probably best— a tremendous horse race, NO WAY we get that anymore, not with the Preakness defections, we had a great Preakness last year,, but that was a month after the Derby.
Just another case of racing horses as little as possible. Its now a bubble wrap sport.
Sad but true. A lot of reasons for it today but it does diminish the sport here. It is an expensive sport and too many owners that buy in and want a return on the investment. They saddle up the 2 year olds and breeze them before the sales and then the buyers as you say don’t run them. Some of our historic farms are still here but how many have actual family running them? Sure the 2 year olds this year will hit the track late summer and early fall but you won’t see any high priced ones or few running. We love to talk about the iron horses of the past on many of these forums. We can’t to point to any today because they are never given the chance. God forbid they lose or even try to race again in a week or 2. Main reason they skip the Derby and head to the Preakness is because they think it can’t be done. History says otherwise.
I don’t like the stupid point system, but it looks like it benefits the Preakness. They will be getting the good horses that are lacking enough points and others bypassing Derby for the Preakness.
DES, the best 3yos in training (i.e., not injured) will be in the Derby…thanks in large part to the point system. The system could use some tweaking, but it works.
I guess you’re right. If they used the earnings system it would probably be the same horses.
I guess we should at least be thankful that this year’s favorite is a 2yo champ and winner of two graded races at 3 — plus Hot Rod Charlie, Super Stock, and Midnight Bourbon, all of whom would fit right in if they were in earlier Derbies.
So with the help of Steve and all preps are done. One weekend away who is your derby horse? I know some of y’all don’t have one until post positions are known but go ahead and pick one.
Rock Your World is my derby horse and it doesn’t matter what position he is going to get.
I am also including Hot Rod Charlie in my tri n superfecta tix!
If you forced me to watch 30 successive episodes of “Joanie Loves Chachi”, I still wouldn’t make a pick this early!
Eddie F that was hilarious!!
Stars of the morning. Terrific work by O Besos. Continued strong past the wire and kept going, pulling up 7 furlongs in 1:26. Excellent lung opener Best gallop of the morning….sorry it was Sainthood. Very smooth and powerful, ears up and striding out beautifully at a strong clip.
Pletcher working his four tomorrow because of rain in forecast for Saturday. Probably others will do the same.
Morning Steve
Evidently, Gerardo Corrales will not be aboard Sainthood in the Derby. Per Todd Pletcher, “we will wait until after the final breezes, and monitor who is available”. In the Jeff Ruby Stakes, I thought Sainthood and Corrales showed exceptional courage, during the stretch run. I would label horse and rider as “Street Fighters”, something you like to see in a 20 horse field. With most of the top riders already committed to other mounts, it will be interesting to see which rider Pletcher chooses.
Thank you so much Steve for your workout observations. Invaluable. Good to hear. Exactly why I just came here, hoping to hear exactly what you posted.
I didn’t especially like O Besos cocking his head constantly. Rosie Napravnik commented the same thing saying he may be difficult to control in a 20 horse field coming out of the gate. Any insight, Steve?
Why am i the only one that has seen RYW doesnt break well?……..Is this not very important for this horse?…..never een hit by dirt, they have to be on the lead, or outside…..10 horses break better…….this could be really ugly race for this horse…..its probably 5-1 just getting lead…….2 back, did he break last?…..last out. he didnt break that great, they asked him…..you can do that in small field…..20 horse field?…..
You should be worrying about Bad Start Charlie getting a clean break. Besides, every horse is susceptible to a bad start. Things happen. I’m not a big fan of RYW for a Derby win, but maybe new rider Rosario will lower the risk of a tardy start.
Secretariat never broke well in the Derby or the Preakness. Even Pharoah had a bad break here and there. A lot for him will depend on the post draw as well as the rest of them. He’s a pretty big colt and While still out there in Cali gate training is probably on the agenda. Watched yesterday morning at Churchill and the track was so sloppy it was just maintenance gallops for them. Use him or don’t when you bet.
This is not an entirely normal Derby with still limited crowds but it is going to be a lot more noisy then what any of these colts have been through before. As long as he loads ok, doesn’t freak in the paddock he will run his race.
Secretariat—who had blazing speed….hit the gate hard in his debut race, and shied from the start every time after that.
He was slammed into at the start and when did he shy from the start after that? He broke a bit slowly in the Derby and Preakness but didnt shy from anything. He could win by far back or on the lead.
OK slammed into….but that was always the story, Steve, that he shied at the break after that first start…
Go watch some of the people that actually cared for Secretariat. Should be able to find it on youtube or if you can get the movie DVD with the extras would be in there. Same theme over and over again. He lost a race would go to the back corner of his stall and sulk. Next time out would break a track record. He was a very smart horse and at times playful horse and definitely a ham for the cameras. Even afte retired his ears I am told would still perk up at the sound of a camera. They didn’t have those fancy cell phone things back then.
not sure but…
I heard he used to curl up in his stall and look over the Racing Form, and Penny got him a light so he wouldn’t strain his eyes…..(hehe)….
I said he broke 6th in SA Derby…..he did break with the leaders on Jan 1 under Rosario…..
6th…out of 9 ( SA Derby)…..is 13th out of 20 (Ky Derby) he could find himself with a lot to do.
Just went thru my Derby futures wagers (round one) on TVG—my Dr Schivel/Rombauer exacta box is toast!
I’m hoping my dr schivel/fire at will exacta will come through
Here’s hoping Gerardo Corrales retains the ride on Sainthood in KD 2021. Don’t think Trainer Todd Pletcher has named a rider yet for Sainthood. Corrales is a twenty-three year-old jockey, originally from Panama, and has ridden with success in the Midwest the last few years. I started following his work last September at Kentucky Downs, and saw that he could more than hold his own against top competition at both sprints and routes. When trainers like Wesley Ward, Steve Assmussen, Michael Maker, and Todd Pletcher put a jockey on their horse, that says a lot.
I happened to bet Sainthood in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park when I noticed that Pletcher and Corrales teamed up on the Winstar runner. In spite of the trouble Sainthood encountered at the head of the stretch run, I would not fault Corrales, who had saved ground for much of the trip and got bounced around a little by the eventual winner, Like the King, and another foe.
I’m hoping for a nice post position draw in KD 2021. Not a large bettor, and will bet Sainthood WPS.
7.5 Furlongs
Evidently, Gerardo Corrales will not be riding Sainthood in the Derby. Per Todd Pletcher, “we well wait until after the final breezes, and monitor who is available” (to ride Sainthood).
Did your source indicate whether the decision is owner-driven, Winstar, or solely a trainer move? I have a feeling Elliot Walden likes to get involved in this sort of thing.
John Velazquez was aboard Soup and Sandwich in the Florida Derby, and was on Medina Spirit in the SA Derby. Maybe i missed it, but I would think he’ll stay with Medina Spirit in the Derby. If in fact he remains aboard Medina Spirit in the Derby, who will ride Soup and Sandwich?
If there’s anyone out there that knows who will ride Soup and Sandwich, I’d appreciate knowing the rider’s name.
Thanks.
Johnny V has already committed to Medina Spirit and Tyler Gaffalione is on Soup and Sandwich
Thanks Steve
Tyler Gaffalione is having a good meet, at Gulfstream Park. He’s rated right behind Irad Ortiz Jr. and Luis Saez in the current jockey standings, at GP. Suffice to say Gaffalione is a reliable replacement.
Soup and Sandwich is a live long shot, IMO.
The net effect of this current and continued indecision regarding DREAM SHAKE and his KD plans, just further enhances any shade over the colts presumed ability by his very own connections. We witnessed a similar kind of operational mechanic with INSTILLED REGARD in 2018. INSTILLED REGARD ended up entered in the race at the last minute with the net effect being odds that were off the charts… and that made for a superfecta very, very super indeed.
If Hozier somehow makes it into the Derby it will mean 11 of the 20 starters will be trained by four trainers. You might have heard of them — Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Steve Asmussen, and Brad Cox. Even if he doesnt run it still means almost half the field, nine of the 20, will be trained by three trainers. Just in case you want a reason to root for the little guy.
Almost becoming like Corporations v mom/pop store….
Ah yes. But who are the “little guys”? Victoria Oliver (little gal)? Are Peter Eurton and Greg Foley little guys?
BTW, Mark Casse has two probables.
So make that 13 of 20 starters trained by five top trainers
i don’t believe that story for 1 second……..Hozier will not run
He wasnt added. Baffert said he never took him off.
Agreed!
I just Googled “how to do a rain dance”. I want mud. Anything to aid the son of Orb, and maybe stop that freight train RYW in his tracks. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a more impressive first 3 races. He looks like he can go around twice no problem. Yet… my gut says go with another.
RYW has mud larks on both sire and dam….Candy Ride has bred many mudders, and empire maker dam sire surely has as well…
Ok then, plan B. I just Googled “how to make a voodoo horse” lol
For O Besos, search for “How to Do a 44 3/5 Half Mile Dance.”
I wish we had a like button for comments here! LIKE!
Not everyone believes he’s the main competition. I’ll think he’ll get lost in the crowd. Look for stamina types to win:
Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Known Agenda, Midnight Bourbon.
Big guys with muscles, EQ and KA; most beautiful horse in the world, Midnight Bourbon, balanced, perfect size and shape; most efficient and persistent stride, Hot Rod Charlie. This is an open race, one of several could win but if stamina matters, these have proven it.
Agree, Midnight Bourbon does look a picture and I’m also very skeptical of Rock Your World performing effectively at Churchill Downs with all that kick-back. Spend a Buck, he is not.
i would not want mud or off track if i had RYW……..he is not coordinated green…..switching leads last 2 races…..back and forth
I won’t say the name, but there is a great site that Keelerman (no not the BH) writes for and find lots of great horseracing info there. But this is THE Kentucky Derby site.
Thank you Kevin. He’s very knowledgeable. And America’s Best Racing is owned by The Jockey Club, which owns the Blood Horse. They used to post and promote my Derby Dozen. Same company.
According to drf, Dream Shake and Get Her Number are “on the fence” for the Derby.
Somehow King Fury needs to get in that gate! He’s training so well!
No.
Is this the best horse racing site now? I think it is. Best writer of all time. Best horse of all time. Best posters of all time. Steve is certainly one of the best analysts of all time in addition to being the number one horse racing writer ever. And some exceptional people post here. Pretty lucky that Steve landed here. The only thing is- I have to sign in every time I post, or am I missing something?
I don’t know what the appropriate category might be (there are several), but Steve should be considered for an Eclipse Award for this series of Derby Rankings.
That’s very kind of you, Eddie. I have never submitted anything for an Eclipse Award and certainly dont intend to start now. I dont believe in it.
I have to sign in too…sometimes sign wrong but my posts go thru anyway…
I sign in often as “Pro Vet.” Nobody’s caught on yet.
…..ooops.
LOL
No wonder he is right occasionally.
Good one.
the dots……go down……..
Agree on all points Porgy! This group as a whole is just a breath of fresh air! Everyone on here brings great info and opinions,(and some really good humor from EddieF!!) to this site, but at the same time being respectful of other opinions.
It’s been a lot of fun!
The respect is great and appreciated but I don’t mind a little tussle on occasion like with Bill Dawson and pro vet, or anyone and pro vet for that matter. I wouldn’t even be here if it weren’t for the respect shown. I don’t believe in disrespect, but at the same time a little bit of sarcastic humor is fun if taken in fun. Yes, EddieF humor and thoughts are appreciated as are everyone’s posts but he can be real funny, and it feels good to be surprised and laugh. It’s nice to post and get a funny EddieF response that is unexpected and not traditional humor. Very witty at times. Even though I think he thought I was nuts the way I was touting OBesos early on.
The context of Bill’s bad feelings were caused by me joking CODE OF HONOR……..weighed 877 lbs…….i dont mind bill or anyone……Bill has a temper, will not post at BH anymore…..ecause he got mad at many…….i have never, or will ever be mad……
Making a joke that Code of honor, was to make a point that the horse gets light…..very thin horse, small chest……i was not wrong…….ut i always liked him……
Wow! Thank you so much, Porgy. I am overwhelmed. and this is the best group of posters I have ever been associated with and I thank you all
I am sure that everyone here is thankful that you landed here Steve and that you are continuing to write and provide wisdom rather than retiring.
Much appreciated
I was just thinking I don’t want the Derby to be over because then your Weekly articles will be done. Any chance you will still post about other current horses?
Haskin’s Derby watch should be year round with a month off for vacation. Maybe two months off after the TC then start again in Aug or Sep with the 2 year olds but we are happy with what we have and I don’t want to overwork him. Tremendous amount of work he puts in already and I don’t know how he does it.
Yes, we don’t want our Big Horse Haskin breaking down!
He’s already ready for New Bolton
Sure, the Askin Haskin column will pick right up about all kinds of things and lots of historical stuff.
Thank you for having this blog.
On the KOTD segment, Week #11, Steve devoted an entire paragraph on Sainthood’s potential moving forward. This Mshawish colt has a street fighter mentality, which was on full display in the Jeff Ruby Stakes, on March 27th. I watched the video replay of that race several times, and could not have been more impressed with the courage he displayed in the late going. This is certainly the type of demeanor you look for in a 20 horse field. He’ll probably go off at double digit odds, in the Derby. That said, Sainthood is certainly a horse to consider using, underneath, in the exotics, IMO.
Could not agree more. I made my brother watch the race, even though he stated he didn’t care what happened in the Jeff Ruby race at Turfway and guess what? He’s on board now. Don’t think he wins but underneath is very possible. Most horses would not have regrouped the way he did, nor would they have been able to react with such instant speed after damn near stopping. His turn of foot with so little time left in the race was impressive.
Thanks for the reply El Kabong
It’s good to hear your brother is now aboard Sainthood. I like his chances to at least hit the board to round out the superfecta.
Certainly live to hit the board
The year of Bourbon, Saints and Kings is upon us.
Mais, oui. Vive la France!
Except we do not want their No Go Zones!
Bien oui, madame.
Bill, I totally agree. Sainthood exhibited extraordinary maturity overcoming the traffic problems he encountered in the Jeff Ruby. He is well served to handle any crowding/bumping etc. that we usually see in the Derby. I’m not sure he can win due to lack of a solid foundation, but he certainly has a shot to fill the exotics. Can’t dismiss.
I find it interesting that Todd Pletcher still has not named a rider for Sainthood. Perhaps he’s waiting till the last minute to see if any of the top jockeys are freed up by a late defection due to injury? That, in itself, tells me that Todd has high regard for Sainthood’s chances.
Thanks for the reply Dewey Hebert
By all indications, the top riders are committed to other mounts, many of which are top Derby contenders. I’m not familiar with
Gerardo Corrales, but the way he rode Sainthood, in the Jeff Ruby Stakes, I would think there’s a strong possibility that Pletcher will stay with Corrales in the Derby. We’ll see.
Gerardo Corrales is poised to breakout. He had a fantastic Turfway meet and is showing real promise at Keeneland. Positive ROI rider. I hope he gets to keep the mount. Sainthood showed real gumption in his fairgrounds race as well. Watching sainthood and known agenda work together was sort of revealing (at least to me). He seemed to work easier than known agenda but didn’t look like he would ever outlast him on their way to the kitchen. IDK, I once bet Borrego.
Good info on Gerardo Corrales, thanks for sharing.
Gerardo Corrales burst on to the Kentucky circuit in 2020. He has held his own among a very good riding colony due, in large part, to his mentor, Wesley Ward. He rides a lot of Wesley’s stock and has been a reliable pilot for Ward’s stable. He has a lot of upside and will continue to improve, but the Derby might be too big a stage for him at the moment. Nevertheless, I’m okay with him retaining the mount on Sainthood if Todd so chooses.
…maturity indeed, for the only derby colt who has not yet had his third birthday.
But can you pronounce Mshawish?
Sounds like some drunk trying to say “make a wish”. LOL
Close! LOL
I totally agree and with his running style will use him in the 3 and 4 spots on my tickets
What is the KOTD segment please?
John
The KOTD segment stands for Knocking On The Door. Each week Steve Haskin provides his thoughts on the several horses that do not make his top 12 listed on his Weekly Rankings (currently at Week 14). A lot can be learned by just reading between the lines on the horses that he reviews on the KOTD segment, each week.
“Not many horses have been working better than Aqueduct maiden winner WEYBURN.” Week 1
I missed the wedding and went to the funeral on that one. Belmont hopefully.
Dynamic One “hidden gem of the year” also week 1.
Thank you again Steve Haskin. The Invasor piece will always be my favorite of all your great ones. I was at Churchill the day he won the classic. They had posters all around east vs. west like a boxing bout. Bernardini vs. lava man. There were a bunch of good horses in there, but that was the hype. Invasor crashed the party. I also was at the track for his Donn Handicap. Went down to visit my dad in pompano beach. I’ve kept my program from that day. In the fourth race msw Rafael Bejarano booted home a debut runner named Curlin. Scat daddy and nobiz like shobiz in the holy bull. 2/3/07 Love and miss you dad.
Thanks very much. Thats what’s fun about January trying to find those hidden gems. Invasor as you know will always be special to me on a personal level. What he did for me and my family was something I could never have dreamed of. Sounds like youre also a fan.
I should clarify, not the commentary or the hangin’ with -from back in the day, but the one from December from this website. That’s when I went…”Damn.” But you knew that. Have fun with the rest of it all.
I can profess to have absolutely read everything of exactly nobody, but my favorite short story today is X Marks The Pedwalk by Fritz Leiber, if anyone hasn’t read it yet, needs a break from data, or just wants to think about some stuff.
Another credit to a wonderful discussion group. One never knows what one will find buried amongst the discussion posts.
Thanks, Laval. Just read it. Leiber was a visionary! I’m pretty sure I read some of his work in my delinquent youth…or perhaps it was last week. Who really knows for sure.
If you watch his last two races, he shifts into another gear late and takes off. Very eye catching.
I know some horses are slow starters but I can’t get past Dynamic One taking 4 tries to finally break his maiden. To me, bad post, wide trip or not a potential Derby winner should be able to put away 50k Maidens, not finish a valiant 4th. Also, he seems to break slowly in his starts which can be the kiss of death in a 20-horse field. Combining that with the Wood’s stunning lack of success in recent years, I’m not sure about his potential for success.
On a side note, I feel like most years I do a decent job handicapping the races (emph. “most” & “decent”) only to somehow blow it at the window. Is there a good resource to help understand how to more accurately bet your opinions on big races like this?
Thanks!
In a 20 horse field, people need to make a stand. My stand is throwing out the entire NY based horses.
It’s between EQ and RYW, providing posts are half way decent.
No.
🙂 🙂 🙂
We’ll see.
Nicky the Vest would have blown all of these horses away! 😉 😉
No.
You must be using a device on which you can’t see the winking emojis.
I tossed the Jeff Ruby horses! And the Lexington….
Jeremy, I’m not familiar with a resource for what you’re asking. But for me, I try not to let one negative aspect of a horse’s performance result in a throw-out. But you seem to have more than one criticism of Dynamic One, so all of that that should be weighed against the positives and negatives of all the other runners.
Needing four races to break a maiden certainly isn’t typical of a Derby winner, but it’s not unprecedented. Where do you draw the line? At 3 maiden races? Quite a few contemporary Derby winners needed three races to break their maiden, most recently Always Dreaming. 2013 Derby winner Orb needed four races. The 1999 Derby winner, Charismatic, needed six races to break his maiden — and he did it in a maiden claimer!
Thank you for the reply! Right now I think Known Agenda is the most likely winner based on both his own past performances and how closely he fits the profile of past Derby winners. I also think RYW, EQ and HRC have a shot but other than that I don’t think anyone else can win. And in that group is a horse that took 4 starts of his own to break his maiden, HRC. However, to me the difference there is that 2 of those starts were attempts on turf so I can excuse his performances easier. Plus he has 3 solid efforts including a Grade 1 victory, whereas Dynamic One only has his maiden win coming into this. Again, just trying to take a stand against as many as I can.
As for the betting help, I’ll just keep picking the winner and somehow losing money. LOL!
Good luck finding betting help, which was your main concern, right? Maybe there are books specifically on making bets, there should be, it’s harder than handicapping. In the Derby the superfecta can be huge without having more than one big longshot. In the 2017 Derby 2 were favored and 2 were long odds, paid $75k I believe but that was for $1. This year you can go 10 c. (8 c. more than this post is worth). This Derby is more wide open than that in my opinion. But it still helps to pick a key horse you think is most likely to win. You can also focus in on win/place/show and bet more money, with a higher chance of winning than the superfecta. If you’re feeling good about your win pick, that could be the best strategy, but if the odds are low, you won’t win a lot unless you bet a lot. Exactas have better payouts, and you can hit the all button along with your main pick. $20-40 per $1 bet. Tri’s are more lucrative yet, but require more strategy and initial cost, also much less likely to win than a win bet. Good luck.
Correction on the exacta costs, it will be $19 for key horse/all or $38 for a box of key horse/all.
Steve,
You know when it comes to a horse’s connections I subscribe to the “Mrs. Haskell Law” (If you asked her about Eddy she would always tell you he is a sweet boy), but I have to share this comment from Chad Brown. Apparently, he is hoping for Caddo or somebody else to provide the speed. “I do think he’s(Highly Motivated) more effective with a target,” Brown said. “What I’m hoping for is more pace in the Derby, where he can be close but following somebody. I think if that happens, you’re going to see this horse get the mile and a quarter without any problems.”
Hosed by Hozier. What the heck?
Pool 1
$20 Tapit sire wager.
$15 Curlin sire wager.
$5 Ghostzapper sire wager.
$1 exacta key box King Fury with Essential Quality, Life is good, Pickin’ Time, Scarred, All others ($10)
I’d much rather see King Fury in the race than Hozier.
King Fury looked like a million dollars galloping this morning…slightly higher than his purchase price. Lol. Without knowing the intentions/desires of Hozier’s connections or his demeanor coming off a sixth place poor performance 19 lengths back of the winner, and not wanting to dive too deeply in conspiracy, I’m almost ready to call shenanigans. I guess it’s what gamblers do, even the small ones. The horse King Fury is doing better than good and everybody on churchill’s backside knows it.
Hozier is back in consideration??? Insanity rules.
Has there ever been a horse who’s done what Mandaloun did in his final prep and then run big in the derby (top 3-4)? He didn’t tire, he just quit running.
Cant say never, but I can say not in the last 60 years. Closest was Thunder Gulch who finished 4th beaten 4 lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes
I think Giacomo was 4th in the SA Derby….Ferdinand was 2nd in SA Derby, beaten six lengths….Alysheba was 3rd I think in his final prep…
Alysheba finished first and was DQ’d. Giacomo actually ran a good race in the SA Derby. None of these races were as bad as Mandaloun’s.
Thanks Steve. Just watched the 1995 Bluegrass on YouTube. He ran pretty much the same exact race as Mandaloun into the stretch, but looked like he was just tiring. Whereas Mandaloun threw out the anchor. 60 years of “no” is good enough for me to not include in my trifecta. And totally agree about Giacomo. I still have the bruises where I’ve been kicking myself for not betting him. That was a sneaky good SA Derby.
Giacomo was a good horse….
Giacomo’s Ristorante in Boston’s North End is one of the finest Italian restaurants you’ll find in this country. I don’t know if the horse was named for the restaurant. I’d like to think he was. 🙂
Giacomo Puccini
I was just joking that the horse was named after the restaurant.
But the composer was TRULY named after Giacomo’s Ristorante. His parents came to Boston for their honeymoon. They ate at the restaurant, and little Giacomo was conceived later that night. True story. I wouldn’t lie about such a thing.
They must have travelled through a time warp. Thanks for the restaurant tip, I live in the Boston area, menu looks good. Can’t go wrong in the North End, even the sandwich shops are better. Many desert places and bakeries too. They must have had it rough this past year. Puccinni too, not many operas being performed.
Think it has something to do with the band Sting….same connections as Zenyatta
Jerry Moss was a rock promoter, I think Giacomo was named for Sting’s son….
I could be wrong about that….Zenyatta was named for a Police album….I know THAT, not sure about Giacomo….
You are correct
Saw her run 3 times, lucky to be there.
Any chance he bled?
Hey, TTC. All of the answers to your question concerned Derby WINNERS. But you asked about horses that hit the board in the Derby. For Derby winners, you have to go back to 1957 and Iron Liege, who finished 5th in a Derby Trial field of 6. He was the last horse to finish off the board in a final prep and then win the Derby.
For 2nd-place Derby finishers, the last one to finish worse than 4th in a final prep was Bet Twice, who encountered a mess of trouble in the 1987 Florida Derby and finished 5th by 4 lengths. It should also be noted that Bluegrass Cat in 2006 finished 4th by 21 lengths in — you guessed it — the Blue Grass Stakes.
Mr. Big News was 3rd in the September 2020 Derby following the Blue Grass Stakes in which he was 6th by 10 lengths. Make Music For Me was 6th by 8 in the 2010 Blue Grass Stakes, but finished 4th in the Derby.
Maybe the lesson in all of this is to excuse poor finishes in the Blue Grass Stakes for underneath bets. 🙂
Just a theory of mine….watch Rock’s first race Jan 3…..see the size, and the huge move—I think Beyer blew the 82 ratings, should’ve been in the 90’s …which would also keep his SA Derby number low….gut feeling is horse going to win big.
I don’t trust ANY speed figure for turf races.
I agree. I think he’s peaking at the right time. We may see a monster performance. Then again I won’t be shocked if he misses the board.
Rock should go straight to the lead and control the race.
last race SA Jan 1st (not 3rd..)
People should understand…….EQ ran the fastest race of anyone ……….in the JUVY……….period……that fig that many months ago?……is way the best……
I love EQ, but the BC Juvenile? In what way was it “the fastest race of anyone”? And even if it was, what significance is it 6 months later?
Speed figs,etc never are a concern for me. Some place too much time/energy into numbers.
Geppetos, Salem, OR…best sauce, best crust…tossed right in front of you by a man who spoke Italian….for 15 years I feasted on a Geppetos garlic and sausage pizza and the day before I left Oregon in 2002, I got a large…..have not been back to Oregon since, hope Geppetos is still there …thats my best pizza…..Eddie?….
Since this is a horse-racing blog, I’ll say the best pizza I’ve ever had just might have been at the late great Bruno’s, which was on Union Avenue right across the street from Saratoga Race Course. It closed some years ago.
well…..I used to read the Racing Form at Geppetos!
I’m not surprised! 🙂
Steve I like this forum better than when you were with the Bloodhorse. Much success! With due respect these are my (negative) thoughts on your top picks
1) Rock Your World. Don’t assume that if he doesn’t get the lead that facing the kickback is not going to play a humongous factor
2) Known Agenda. Pletcher’s horses rarely make big improvements from race to race. I don’t see this colt hitting the century mark. That 95 in the Fla Derby was just OK. The only thing this horse has going for him is Irad Ortiz. He just wins!!!!
3)Essential Quality. On paper this horse is rock solid. Heck he is unbeaten. But I have that feeling that in the Blue Grass he should have run a bigger number. That bothers me.
4) Dynamic One. The Wood was a crappy race. The Chad brown filly ran a tick faster 2 races earlier with the same kind of splits. NY better put up some more money before they make it a Grade 3
5)O Besos. He is turning into the wise guys horse. I want to see the final workout this weekend before I rate him
6) Highly Motivated – Last year I distinctly remember researching his sire’s bloodlines to seethe stamina influence after seeing Authentic early in the year. I’m convinced Authentic would not have won the Derby in May. I still cant get over the life and death struggle in the Haskell. He was the lone speed on a speed favoring racetrack. But Baffert is the master. But Into Mischief’s progeny is not stamina oriented. It’s only a matter of time before Chad Brown wins a derby. He seemed to have survived the war with EQ one of those horses is going to move way forward. You are the bloodlines Master, please comment
7) Hot Rod Charlie. Quietly Doug O’Neil has already trained 2 Derby winners. 3 would elevate him to rare company. He got the perfect trip in the BC and Essential Quality still ran him down. Did he make up the difference over the winter? When he did not win the Beverly Lewis after a perfect setup was another negative. They came home the final 5/16ths in 34 3/5s. Maybe he just finally put it together in Louisiana This horse like EQ does not have to be on the lead like he did the last time so that a big plus. Lets see how he looks in the last workout
Alot of what you said looks like fiction to me…..some good points…..again i don’t put down picks or lists……..you say Hot rod had great trips……go watch the early part of his last 3 races….those were not perfect….he was farther back than he likes in 2 and 3 back….not great starts…..last time got squeezed and slammed at start…..recovered, but just ecause he won, it doesnt mean it didnt happen…maybe not getting slammed he wins by 4….we dont know…7th is pretty low
agree with you, horse is being led to Louisville by one confident trainer….checks EVERY box. I think Rock is going to run big—if he doesnt you can expect a good trip with Prat, the horse exudes class, and I think he’s going to slip up in price some…I say 4th choice.
The final three-sixteenths of the La. Derby was very fast
HRCharlie checks the two boxes of final 3/8 under :38 sec and last 1/8 under :13 secs. (For a 1 3/16ths race that is) He is fast enough.
….for O Besos!….
“Alot of what you said looks like fiction to me….” THEN “i don’t put down picks or lists….” 🙂 🙂 🙂
reasons……like pletcher horses don’t make big improvements?……come on man……..what?…..
I didn’t say that hot Rod Charlie had great trips. I said he had a great trip in the BC. Yes he got bumped at the start of the LA Derby but it was not enough to compromise him from getting an early lead. But isn’t that a good thing? Do you want to bet on a horse that cannot tolerate a straw in his path in a 20 horse field? To say that he would have won by 4 with a clan break now that’s……. I really didn’t mean to rank any of the horses as I had commented on them.
you can expect a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby….
Thanks Ian. Is there anyone you like? lol. I cant tell if you like Highly Motivated or not. If youre concerned about his pedigree its not the greatest but there is stamina farther back in his female family.
Steve, my top 4 today would be EQ, HM, HRC and O Besos. You have always talked about horses blooming at the right time just before the race I’m sure you wont disagree if I tell you that Mandaloun could take that award this year. That work in 1.11 4/5 is everything you could ask for. Awesome looking colt!
Hey Steve thinking of going to Keeneland this fall. Are you doing any Claiborne Tours or Festivals this year. I enjoy listening to you on Byks show every week.
Thank you Richard. I was talking to Leonard about that and he is concerned that wont happen again this year. But we’ll see. Hes afraid not many people will travel from out of state to get there. I wont be doing Byk’s show anymore. Time to move on after 15 years.
Can understand wanting to move on to other experiences but I will surely miss the stories you tell on SB show. Some of the best “talk radio” I’ve ever listened to. Looking forward to your final opinions after post position are drawn. Thank you for the thoughtful information so far.
Well that sucks. Always listened to the Podcast before bed on Thursday nights.
Steve, you and Leonard might be pleasantly surprised in the size of turnout for fall events. There’s a lot of pent-up demand for travel of all kinds. I’ve already planned three trips myself this year. Sadly, a trip to the Bluegrass is not one of them.
Seriously, no more Byk show?
You could not of waited until after the derby? That was obviously for selfish reasons.
Sorry to hear that, thanks for everything
Kind regards
Johnny
Just read a story on the Caddo River decision with many quotes from Brad Cox.
bloodhorse[dot]com/horse-racing/articles/247545/cox-confirms-caddo-river-for-kentucky-derby-start
I’m now more perplexed than before about the decision to run in the Derby. Cox is told by Anthony, “You watch the horse and if you feel he’s doing well, we’ll take a chance.” The owner leaves it to the guy who also happens to trains the clear favorite? WT*?
Happens. Makes his living training and for more then one owner.
Oh….OK.
🙂
CR should run in Preakness. Not sure he’s a distance horse.
Caddo won the battle but lost the war.
Caddo was a very very good horse…..his stride is amazing…….then he ran 2 ad races……why?…..who knows….will i bet him?…no……but he had the talent…he was in my top 3 before he ran bad….
Caddo battled late for 2nd, big neck stretching for the wire….track was not very fast that day and he went 46…big price can maybe grab a slice?
Yes, he has talent. What he might need is a class drop.
Why not? Caddo River can only help Essential Quality
Yes, that’s the point. Brad Cox wants more speed in the race for EQ. What I was trying to say is that John Ed Anthony is an experienced and accomplished owner. Why would he sacrifice his colt for someone else’s horse?
Shouldn’t they have to run as an entry?
Coupled entries were eliminated after the 2000 Derby.
I say, I say, Son, what you need is a rabbit.
Steve, this is a very interesting year. The pace and style of the race seems unclear with this year’s speed seemingly unable to make a serious bid. With style unknown and many horses able to run a possible winning race, I believe the winner will be at a nice price of $20 or higher with the gate assignment and the trip being the major factors. No triple crown this year also. Should be a great triple crown with three different winners.
Caddo River on the lead and a mad scramble right behind him. Could set it up for a longsot closer
Poor Rombauer on the outside looking in. Ah, but there are others…..
Continuing with the hunt for plausible long shots, I was prompted to revisit Super Stock’s performance in the Breeders’ Futurity after reading Steve’s accurate depiction of his run there. The information here was better than the one in the official chart; it does not mention his jockey pulling back to avoid running into the horses in front of him in the backstretch. Super Stock was bumped many times by Keepmeinmind in upper stretch and was also on his wrong lead in the homestretch.
I was so enthralled with Essential Quality that I missed all those details put forward by Steve around Super Stock. So, I was only able to notice that the champ was green in his first Grade 1 victory… but let’s come back to Super Stock and his last deed.
Super Stock got a respectable 97 Brisnet speed figure for his Arkansas Derby win over two good horses. The son of Dialed In seems to be in an upward trend in form after gaining a strong foundation.
Super Stock’s sire, Dialed In, was the favorite in the 2011 Derby and his dam sire, Closing Argument, was 2nd in the 2005 Derby. Not bad credentials at all…
His Distaff lineage was not that accomplished though.
You could have claimed his dam, Super Girlie, by paying a meager $6250 in 2012 at Calder; but his 3rd dam, Leave it Be, was an iron mare winner of 24 races in 66 stars and $788K.
His 2nd dam, Beafleet is full sister to Starfleet who is one of the greatest broodmares of all time in Puerto Rico.
As we said before, Super Stock carries the joy and hopes of the Asmussen family. Devoted horsemen who deserve the bliss of Derby glory.
Plausible longshot: Known Agenda. 🙂 🙂
Good analysis of Super Stock. I like him because he’s obviously on the improve. If I were inclined to bet trifectas, I’d seriously consider him. He really does check out on everything except for how he finished in the Ark Derby. His Late Pace number (86) was really horrible in comparison to Derby winners since at least 2000 (with the exception of Mine That Bird) and compared to EQ, KA, and a few others this year. His final furlong was 13 1/5 (or 13, depending on how you measure a half-length gain), and his final 3f was 39 2/5. He’ll probably be in the 12- to 15-1 range. A fair price would be around 20-1, don’t you think?
I would think he’ll be close to 20-1. As you said that wasnt a fast race
In the last 10 years the highest odds in the Ky Derby for an Ark Derby winner was 16-1. And there’s been a few slow Ark derbies during that time.
I’m still trying to figure out how good he is. He’s a tough horse to get a handle on. But it wouldnt surprise me if he ran a big race.
You know how you can pile casino chips on top of and all around a specific number on the roulette board…
On top of O Besos, surrounded most heavily with Essential Quality and Known Agenda.
No more bets…. 🙂
#HaveFunWithIt
Dont throw in your chips too early. Wait to make sure everyone makes the gate and wait until post position draw.
Oh for sure. You never know what can change. Twice in my life watching derbies where speed scratched the day before, leaving just one legit speed horse. War Emblem and Authentic. Smart enough to recognize it. But sadly, too dumb to act on it.
Updated wager strategy: $2 trifecta Rock Your World/ Medina Spirit, O Besos/ “all”…….and Rock/”all”/Medina, O Besos……cost of wager $136….if it hits I get it ($.50 tri) 4 times, but if Medina and O Besos run 2nd and 3rd I’ll get it 6 times…..
I hope youre not peaking to soon with all those bets. Still almost 2 weeks to go…workouts post position draw.
Oh no….not early peaking–just thinking….11 days out—
No peaking!
Has there been a status update to injuries of LIG and GH? Timelines?
Looks like folks here are really starting to get serious! 🙂
Hey Eddie… Did you fill sorry for Joseph Talamo for being replaced by Mike Smith on Midnight Bourbon?
It was a travesty of a mockery of a sham!!!!
Why do you ask?
Just testing your Sensitivity …
Do you like horses who hate taking a bath?
I like bourbon.
Mint Juleps on me !
Have a scotch instead. I have seen many a millionaire throwing up in the landscaping on Derby Day
If Mike Smith goes with Midnight Bourbon he will be the Jockey with the most mounts in the Derby with 27. He is tied with Shoemaker with 26 Derbies. Shoemaker did it in 36 years and Mike Smith would reach the record in 37 years since his first Derby.
*38 years
A major upset would put Johnny V in a tie with Shoemaker for third most Derby wins.
Woody Allen, Bananas.
“This trial is a travesty of a mockery of two mockeries of a sham
Then I was close on memory alone. 🙂
Good reply Mr. Melish
…as we play the waiting game, I’ll recall a quote from the past: PVal: “Pat (Day) tried to screw me all the way around there, and he couldn’t do it!”…..Jim McKay: “…..aaaallllllll- RIGHT!”…….spoken right after the 1989 Preakness, the best horse race I ever saw—-in the Spring of ’89, Easy Goer was being compared to the greatest all-time race horses, but after the Kentucky Derby win by Sunday Silence Charlie Whittingham casually said “He’ll win the Triple Crown…”…and then came the Preakness, and the intense battle between those two superstars! The early backstretch move…the Sunday Silence steady…..the far turn move and homestretch crowding by an aggressive PVAL and the turning of Easy Goer’s head to see his rival, despite only losing by a couple of inches, it remains my all-time favorite horse race!
I could watch 100 replays of that race and get goosebumps every time!
You can thank Dr. Harthill for that race even happening.
Most people don’t have any idea how much impact that one Veterinarian had on this game.
Lasix?
Post Animal Kingdom victory, I loved it when Bob Neumeier asked Barry Irwin about his choice of trainer in Graham Motion. Irwin replied “He’s the only one who hasn’t lied to me.” Neumeie could have let it stand there but he egged Barry on by asking, “which ones have lied to you?” In the saltiest of tones Barry quipped, “All of them.” I was in tears laughing
Greatest line was by johnny Campo after Pleasant Colony’s Derby. No one in Kentucky had ever seen anything like the brash New Yawka. Jim MCKay: “Well, John, you said after the Wood Memorial he would win the Derby; you knew then.” Campo: “Hey, I’m a good horse trainer pal, don’t you forget it.”
My fav was Steve Coburn…….”burp!”…………
Aren’t we brilliant?
“You know, Jack, when you cross the Hudson those buildings get taller and taller”… “You ain’t at the Omaha State Fair anymore.” Woody Stephens having a verbal spar with Jack Van Berg.
Awesome detailed information, Steve. The speed figures above show little separation between the top contenders. I am the though that 3 start horses, such as RYW, have further improvement in them than say a more mature horse such as EQ. The key for those horses is to not come unglue with more entered horses and a larger crowd. RYW will benefit from an outside post for sure…
As for MS, nobody really discussing his prospects. I think he could easily be forgotten and the odds will be juicy. Great stuff on his pedigree and the gameness in his genes. MS win in the Robert Lewis, was his genetics kicking in….Last week, you mentioned MS missed training going into the Santa Anita Derby. I no point in the SA derby did he look to threaten RYW. With the missed training, could it be conceivable he improves off of his 2nd place and become a fitter animal to win the KD?
I don’t see a gap in his training up to the SA Derby. His pattern has been the same. After racing, he waits two weeks, then starts training every week up to the next race. After the San Felipe, 3/6, he waits two weeks and then trains fast on 3/22. He trains the following week 3/28 then races on 4/3. This is the same pattern he has been using since the Sham. Two weeks off, then train each week. There was more time between the Lewis and Felipe so he got in an extra work, but his overall pattern does not suggest he missed any training.
He didnt work for 16 days after the San Felipe
no morning gallops, too…Bob has one this year and he’s going to be 10-1!
Johhnny V’s agent Ron Anderson told me “Do not leave him out.”
I plan on using him 4th but no higher. He did run in to a monster so there is no tossing him out completely for being 4.5 back. Thanks Steve, love your tidbits of info. But I suppose if you had asked Mrs. Haskell about Eddy, she would have told you he was a sweet boy. Never the less, point taken.
Everyone is giving props to Highly Motivated for hanging with Essential Quality but maybe EQ was all out to beat a horse that hasn’t ever won a Graded Stakes and came in 3rd behind Weyburn and Crowded Trade (who both stunk it up in the Wood)?
A few weeks ago, i mentioned that EQ has not beaten much. He beat HRC but same with MS….
Hi just barely beat HRC who was coming off a maiden win by a neck
All I know is he has beaten EVERYONE he’s ran against. smh!
Glass half full or half empty? The Gotham was Highly Motivated’s first race off a 5 month layoff and he had a bad bobble at the gate, but he wasn’t supposed to be ready to conquer anyone at this point. A month later though, in his first 2 turn race, he gets headed by the Derby Favorite and receives a respectable 102 briz, his third in a row I might add, and a 1.5 TG#. This horse is improving by leaps and bounds and maybe, just maybe, Chad Brown has utilized an old school training method to get this horse ready for the next task. It sure looks like it to me. Dismissing his Bluegrass effort for not winning the Gotham is a strategy for defeat.
My bad, 4 month layoff.
EQ beat 5 graded stakes placed horses, same as RYW. Known Agenda beat 4 of that type. But the first time that any of them will run against a truly quality field is in the Ky Derby. There have been several Derby winners in the past 15 years or so that had similar stretch drives to EQ’s. Who were they fighting with in the stretch? I’ll Have Another nosed out Creative Cause. Super Saver lost to Line of David by a neck. Street Sense lost to Dominican by a nose. Barbaro beat Sharp Humor by 1/2 length. You just never know.
Right on top of things as usual Eddie
Eddie, you da man in da know, for sure.
Dynamic One and Bourbonic beat 4 graded stakes winners and 1 graded stakes placed horse. I’m looking at the broodmares right now; pedigree time.
Essential and Motivated separated themselves from the field and I have to believe both horses have more to give.
Brown and Cox wouldn’t empty the tanks, they made room for more gas.
The tide of main favorites prevailing in the Derby does not seem to be changing this year. Excluding the last two years, the winning ticket paid an average of 3.5 to 1.
The Derby winners for the last 9 years have come mostly from the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and from the Arkansas Derby in lesser degree. This year the winner could also come from the Blue Grass Stakes. This was the final prep for Essential Quality as it was for another champ named Good Magic. Horses make races not the other way around…!
To me, after an elemental analysis, it is easy to envision either Essential Quality, Known Agenda or Rock Your World winning the Derby. These three topflight horses have proved to be the fastest at early and late stages in all their races; and as if these pros weren’t enough, they will be ridden by the top three Jockeys in the Country.
From what we have seen so far, Rock Your World will be very likely controlling the pace with Essential Quality running in intermediate positions and Known Agenda lingering behind them.
Unless Rock Your World is a real freak, I do not see any of these three marvelous prospects wining by large margin; instead there could be a thrilling finish staged by the three hottest jockeys in America.
That would be something … wouldn’t it?
What about Caddo River?
Is Florent Geroux keeping Mandaloun?
I was just zooming in the magnificent three… the pace will be likely dictated by Soup and Sandwich, Caddo River and Midnight Bourbon… perhaps Highly Motivated and Hot Rod Charlie will be there in the leading bunch as well.
The Florida Derby winner has been in the money 7 of the last 12 Derbies (I am excluding 2020 from all of my analysis as it’s an outlier). In two of those 12 races the Florida Derby winner didn’t even make it to post (Quality Road and Constitution). So, of the 10 Kentucky Derbies run since 2008, where the Florida Derby winner participated, he finished in the money 70% of the time. For the record, the other Florida Derby winners that ran during that time were 2011 Dialed In (8th), 2012 Take Charge Indy (19th) and 2015 Materiality (6th). So other than TCI, the Florida Derby winners have had great showings if they make it to the gate at CD.
Also, the Santa Anita Derby winner has finished in the money 6 times in the last 12 years with the runner up hitting the board one year as well. The winner of the Arkansas Derby has only finished in the money 3 times in the last 12 years with Pharaoh being the lone winner.
Louisiana Derby runners hit the board in ’11 (3rd in LA finished 3rd in KY), ’13 (4th in LA finished 2nd and LA winner finished 3rd), ’14 (3rd in LA finished 2nd) and ’16 (LA winner finished 3rd), so while it hasn’t produced a winner in a while, there have been board-hitters coming from the South.
Conversely, since 2008, no Wood RUNNER has finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby.
Good stats Jeremy. Thanks
That was Gun Runner, winner of the Louisiana Derby and 3rd in the Kentucky Derby in 2016. He was named Horse of the Year in 2017. I just had to mention that; he is and will always be our hero down here in New Orleans.
Thanks, Steve, for another great weekly ranking. Hope you had great time visiting your grandson.
Your reference to the brave and courageous family of Medina Spirit is a powerful display of your racing knowledge and experience.
On top of all the stark sires you mentioned in Medina Spirit’s family, Protonico’s second dam is the champion 3-year-old filly in Chile, Wild Spirit (CHI). She defeated the best males of the day in the 2nd leg of the Chilean Triple Crown series (Gran Criterium G1). This important Stakes was won by the notable horses Memo, Malek, Puerto Madero and Lido Palace; like these great Chilean horses, Wild Spirit also had a spectacular career in the US. The daughter of Hussonet won the 10 furlongs of the Delaware Handicap, the Shuvee, the Personal Ensign and the Ruffian Handicaps. So good she was for Bobby Frankel that ended up being the favorite in the 2004 Apple Blossom over Horse of the Year Azeri. The champion defeated a very game Wild Spirit clocking its fastest speed figure of her career.
Perhaps Medina Spirit owners admire Wild Spirit illustrious racing career hence the name Medina Spirit…!
Medina Spirit was supposed to take the place of Life is Good as the leader of California trail but his world was rocked trying to match a high-speed train with no brakes…!
Steve let us know that Baffert did not want to ship Medina Spirit because of his kind of “delicateness” physically. Yet the black warrior was the only one surviving a Darwinian training regime.
I do not know if John Velazquez got a sling and five stones to defeat the Goliaths he will face in the valley of Churchill Downs; but one thing I know is that Medina Spirit will never ever give up…!
and you talk about my powerful knowledge. Ii remember wild spirit well. I believe she also was almost black. Great point about Medina. Hope she ships well
Thanks for the reply Steve… that is the problem with underdogs; now he is “she” … LOL
Oops hope HE ships well.
You da Maan! Interesting stuff about Wild Spirit. Medina Spirit has lost only to Life Is Good and RYW. He can’t be ruled out of exotics.
Yes Eddie …! From *0.90-odds in the Santa Anita Derby to 20 to 1 in the Derby rings back class indeed!
Oh, he’ll be much lower than 20-1. Baffert!
An the only Baffert for that matter … You are more than right!
There’s nothing like a horse that can make you feel like an ass. That is a great line. The great thing about the Triple Crown is that with the sunrise on the first Sunday in May is that were reincarnated and on to the Preakness or Belmont. Like Sinatra said “Riding high in April and shot down in May, But i know I’m gonna change that tune ,When I’m back on top, back on top in June. Don’t you just love this game!
Yes I do love this game. Are those lyrics from the song, ‘New York’? The song should be adopted as the Horseplayers Anthem. So cool.
That’s Life is the song and Sinatra does it the best
He did everything the best!
“That’s what all the people say” Great tune…. play it again, Sam, er Derek, play “That’s Life” for all us horseplayers out there.
Who will make that next leap? We know who is good at 9f’s but what we are really trying to do here is ask ourselves who will extend that form for one more furlong.
RYW has the look of a freak monster who should eat the next furlong up. He actually ran it after he crossed the line at SA Derby and he came back looking like he had just had his mane braided even though he had just devoured a couple of good horses going 9F’s. Some have made the remark that he hasn’t had much dirt in his face, a valid concern. With Rosario in the saddle, some of that concern goes away, Rosario is too clever to be put in that situation. So who did he beat? I believe it is fair to say that Medina Spirit is on par with Hot Rod Charlie, who as Steve pointed out has not improved his speed figures much. A slight tick better in the LA Derby than his effort in the RLewis but the FG track was in better condition than SA for the RBLewis. RYW is a deserved top pick. He’s the Keyser Soze mystery wrapped in a babayka warning in this group. You can question him all you want but the bottom line is you had better fear and respect this potentially spooky good runner. And he’s a moose to boot!
Known Agenda is Pletcher’s best shot. The numbers suggest he is improving with each test and his running style suggests he can relax off the lead, even mid pack and then just pick his way through the field as the rest fade. Like Steve mentioned, four 1 1/8 contests under his belt and the last one being his best effort suggests that he has been improving with each of these outings, getting stronger and faster. I like his progression and Pletcher has timed his development just as he did with Always Dreaming.
Highly Motivated. It’s easy to access that he was beaten by the favorite but you have to take in what Chad Brown is doing with this colt. Sprints his first year. Opened up the season in a one turn sprint going a mile. Then it was into the deep end and he came up short by a neck to the derby favorite. That was no small task and that he lost to EQ by such a small margin in his first 2 turn test was remarkable. If you think he won’t improve then you haven’t been following Chad Brown. Chad would have a derby win under his belt but he ran into a freak named Justify and RYW may spoil the party for him again, but one thing is for sure. Chad will have this guy ready to put in a better effort. His TG #’s mirror Known Agenda’s even though he has only been sprinting up to his first 2 turn effort. This guy will be in final furlong mix at the 1/8th pole. In Chad I trust because he learned from the best there ever was.
I will step down from the soap box now and go eat some oats.
I had to look up your obscure movie references, but I definitely agree with what you are saying about Rock. May the Derby come down to superhorse in the making vs. undefeated 2YO champ. As for Highly Motivated, don’t see him winning (which GUARANTEES he has a chance) but I plan to use him in exacta boxes.
Great rundown. Wanna do the final Rankings for me? Love the Keyser Soze reference.
Not a chance. Like Chad, I can only learn from the best and that I am very content to do.
Great post, El Kabong. We all know who Keyser turned out to be. 😉
Interesting scenario and nicely constructed argument although a bit premature without post positions. Mind you, it’s not the race I perceive but in a 20 horse field who really knows? Ha ha Good luck.
Rock Your World is the biggest red herring in years. I predict he disappears into the herd and finishes 10th or worse.
Garcon, bring me the red herring with caviar and a side of borch and another bottle of CLIX. Na Zdorovie!
As others have touched upon (such as Porgy a few hours ago), pace projections can seem easy to figure…on paper….but in reality, too many things can happen coming out of the Derby gate. Post 1 is still a difficult place to be, even with the new starting gate. Horses stumble or hesitate out of the gate. Others are knocked sideways by horses to their inside or outside. Remember the Irish War Cry disaster?
Then there’s the assumption that a swift early pace benefits closers and that a slow early pace benefits frontrunners and up-close stalkers. Those assumptions are usually borne out by the results. But not always. We saw a quick early pace in 2018 (45 ⅖ half mile), but Justify stayed with Promises Fulfilled and the rest is history. In 2011, eventual winner Animal Kingdom was in 12th place after a half mile in 48 ⅗ that was the slowest in at least 30 years.
On paper, it’s likely that Caddo River gets an uncontested lead…unless the rider of a speedy longshot is directed to contest at all costs. In the attending positions, Rock Your World, Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, and Soup and Sandwich will be positioning themselves for their later moves.
I’ll have these considerations in the back of my mind, but my final decisions will rest on which horse or horses are fast enough and at the top of their form cycles.
Good stuff. I think how contentious the pace is is more important than how fast it is. id rather be on fast pace alone than a slower pace battling with two or three horses.
Thanks, Steve. So much to consider…so little time. No!….too MUCH time!
Pace is hard to figure. You never know when one of these youngsters is going to go all Palice Malice on everyone. You never know when the real pace, as Friesan Fire surely would have been in 2009, is going to get mauled right out of the gate and lose all chance. Had Friesan got a clean break, that race would have been much different. When Bodemiester set that wicked pace I was certain the race would set up for my two closers Dullahan and Went The Day Well. I’ll Have Another who was stalking pounced and timed his run to perfection negating the on rushing Dullahan and Went the Day Well who didn’t even pass Bodie. Plus, we have so many lightly raced horses this year, who knows how they will react. Another Palice Malice in the mix? Maybe.
Yup. You just never know what could happen. 1985. Gotham and Wood gate-to-wire winner Eternal Prince broke poorly and then was steadied, allowing Spend A Buck to lead uncontested.
Nice projections Eddie!
I would add the Post Positions as another factor for final selections.
Imagine RYW getting PP1 and the other fast (with one dimensional speed) rivals drawing next to him.
Rosario will have to rocket from there and then will be a real test of greatness for the son of Candy Ride.
I would hate to make a betting decision based on a bad PP and then watch the horse I passed on WIN. The way I see it, a bad PP will increase a horse’s odds and potential payout.
Lookin at Lee was the luckiest Derby runner ever. He started from PP 1 but was able to skim the rail the whole race except for the last furlong when moved off the rail to try challenging Always Dreaming.
Lookin at Lucky was not that lucky from PP1 in 2010…
Don’t forget Ferdinand’s amazing last to first win from post 1. Anyway, it’s a different situation now with the new single gate that’s moved further out. And if there’s a late scratch, the first horse (and all others) are even further out.
With this period of waiting for the final field, I would like to know where you Steve and those who participate here think there needs to be a tweek or two in the qualification process.
Of the top 20 pointgetters – 6 are not going of which 5 are bypassing and one Life Is Good is injured.
And of the 20 that are currently qualified to get into the starting gate, there are those 11 that have withdrawn, 8 bypassing, 2 Not nominated (Drain The Clock and New Treasure) and the one Life Is Good is injured.
The Sunland Derby has not been a factor twice in a row. Churchill Downs has made some nice concessions to Turfway Park for the Jeff Ruby Steaks and John Battaglia Memorial Stakes for allowing Churchill Downs to have those race dates last year so that the Derby could be run in September. But will long standing and will be impacting.
A foreign entry is missing again. So whats the point of having this European and Japanese road to qualification if its a no show?
What I would like to see is some sprint races – i.e. 7 furlongs be included in the qualification point allotment. The early sprint races for 3YOs were used pre the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification process started in 2013.
Thoughts?
Sunland didnt race so there was no Sunland Derby. The European races are a joke and the Japanese races are just for Churchill to cash n on the massive handle generated by Japanese bettors. Both detract from the race. I have beeb preaching the addition of certain sprints getting points for years because sprints were always a major part of the Derby trail and its important to sharpen horses up to start the year. Every major horse in the 50s 60s, 70s, and 80s made their 3yo debut in a sprint
Victor Espinoza is back and winning races. A late Derby mount perhaps? Sainthood, Dream Shake, Get Her Number, and Caddo River are currently riderless.
Caddo River is in? Now I have to re-evaluate the pace scenario, not that I could really tell what’s going to happen in reality anyway. LOL.
With 20 horses you never know for sure. Someone could get cut off and blocked, and a surprise horse could be sent. They will try to get the lead with Caddo if they can. Several can lead or rate but it appears Caddo needs the lead. I don’t even worry about pace scenario in the Derby. Most likely a stalker or closer wins. Someone with a good trip bursts out from the pack, or on a rare occasion a closer picks them all off. Caddo leads most of the way like Hard Spun did, then O Besos picks them all off for the win with Caddo second would be cool but highly unlikely. Caddo will have to improve, and O Besos will have to be a little faster than he has been. RYW is the key- Is he a super horse? Otherwise several are potential winners depending on who peaks that day and gets the trip. Has a wide open feel so there could be a huge surprise or two. It feels like a really fun Derby, a classic. How about a repeat of the Blue Grass with those two battling to the wire? Or matching names like Soup and Sandwich with Dream Shake? How about the two biggest longshots for the biggest exacta in history?
I recall Steve saying in an earlier blog post that Midnight Bourbon is very reluctant to let anyone get by him and will dig in when eyeball to eyeball with another horse. If Caddo is in and MB and CR go to the front I can see a MB CR exacta and the tri adding in longshots. Nevertheless, RYW is still at the top of my list so maybe it will be a RYW-CR-MB tri. It’ll be a very fun race to watch regardless with all of the longshots this year who seem to have a chance.
Midnight Bourbon, with Mike Smith aboard, will go straight for the lead. This is Mike’s signature ride, take the horse to the lead, set fast early fractions and thereafter slow it down in an effort to control the pace. Mike Smith is a good fit for Midnight Bourbon, but that pace scenario won’t work this time; Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, Soup and Sandwich, Caddo River and Highly Motivated will press him hard to put a stop to that joy ride. At least one of the above horses will hold on and win or at least hit the board.
The mid pack horses I have so far are Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Dynamic One and Super Stock. These are the horses that will benefit if the pace is fast. The closers, Helium and Bourbonic may also benefit if there is a pace meltdown.
This is a 10 horse scenario, another 10 to go. If the track is sloppy, Essential Quality, Rock Your World and Dynamic One are on my list of slop runners; I put Dynamic One in the mix because his sire relished a wet track.
Fair assessment, Mary. No matter which way you speculate, Essential Quality looks the winner. Depending on post positioning, though.
No official decision but its lookiing like it
Now he’s officially in.
Caddo River is in the Derby as long as he emerges OK from his work this weekend.
Source?
Brad Cox
Downey Profile
Thanks! I loved him in the Iron Man movies, but not so much as Sherlock Holmes.
All eyes will be on Caddo this weekend!
Caddo River has zero chance of winning. Cox was afraid of a pace less scenario where RYW would control. There is your rabbit folks for EQ if breaks clean.
I thought this might happen. I would have liked to be a fly on the wall when Brad Cox was trying to sell John Ed Anthony on the idea that Caddo River could win on a lonely lead. Sorry, but Mr. Anthony you, sir, are a glutton for punishment.
Did I say anything about him winning? I thought the final decision on his entry would be made after his weekend workout. That’s why I said that all eyes will be on him. His entry would change the pace dynamics.
Like BB never has a rabbit in a race.
Gutsy call with Dynamic One Steve. That’s what handicapping is all about, personally I like it. With 11 days to go I always have to be wary of out thinking myself and taking in too much info. Stay with your gut and watch for the Bloom. 27 years ago the topic today would be the Bluegrass tomorrow. How I miss those days
That’s 37 years ago
LOL aint that the truth, and the Derby Trial would be next Tuesday
I’m completely confused with the probable field in the Derby this year. Mainly, though, I’m glad it’s late April and we’re actually talking Derby and going to have a Derby the first Saturday in May. I may just revert to the things that made me like a specific horse when I was a child. I like his name, or I like the silks, or even I like the way they braided his mane.
Confused? I cant imagine why. LOL
Hi Melissa,
Nice post. Would you please let me know how you managed to include an avatar/image in your post? I was trying to find out how, to no avail.
Thanks in advance.
The information above is very helpful Steve. I am not one to go by Beyer numbers but it is informative.
Every little bit helps. Either that or it makes you more nuts
After watching the Derby preps for over 6 months or so Essential Quality still looks the horse to beat and a win by this colt wouldn’t shock too many racing aficionados. However, trying to predict the place getters behind Essential Quality now that is a Herculean task.
Steve Haskin seems to like at least 16 runners which suggests that there’s not much to separate the field, talent/pedigree wise. The two Dialed In colts and O Besos are intriguing outsiders who could be helped with positive post positions. Ah, yes, the dreaded post draw that often destroys dreams within a blink of an eye.
England’s 2,000 Guineas sees the return of St Mark’s Basilica prior to the running for the roses, oceans away. Not to forget the Kentucky Oaks a day earlier with a field full of fantastic fillies. Thanks again, Steve, witty and entertaining as always. Exciting times.
I do? I wasnt aware of that.
If I were a betting person, I would box Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon. I just feel that we won’t see a Tapit win the Derby, or an Into Mischief and I like the pedigrees of the three I mentioned.
Hey Steve, glad that you had fun on your getaway weekend with family, You did another great job with Week 14 Rankings.
I have begrudgingly jumped on the Rock Your World bandwagon in large part because of his speed and breeding. One question I have is how the post position draw will affect him? What post(s) do you think could be a disadvantage for RYW?
Thank you very much Dewey. I would hate to see him draw inside. I want a good outside post… from 10 to 17 would be ideal. I probably would be concerned if he drew post 5 and in only because he has never gotten dirt kicked in his face and he’s a big long striding horse.
Thanks Steve. Looking forward to the PP Draw and hoping that the field remains intact.
Well said on Rock ! Haven’t read entire column yet … but great start !
Can’t disagree with any of your assessments Steve. You make good points on most of these horses.
Maybe I am being too worried but being that Rock Your World has only run at Santa Anita. No way to know just yet whether he will adapt to the Churchill Downs surface. Plus the post positions and weather always factor in.
Right now for me here is my list. I will definitely be playing the exotics.
1. Essential Quality – I like his versatility, his experience and the ability to do well at different tracks. I don’t want to try and beat myself and even though only 2 horses have won the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby I believe that he is a solid choice.
2. Highly Motivated – he will be in my exotics plus a win wager.
3. Dynamic One – he is surely on the rise and perhaps he is a future star.
4. Soup & Sandwich – For some reason he worries me. I have to put him in the trifecta.
5. Medina Spirit – always got to be worried about a Baffert entry.
Thank you Steve for taking the time to do this every week. It certainly must be a labor of love.
Interesting top 5, Deacon. S&S is the one that worries me, also. I wish he had one more race…a debut in December, for example. 🙂
It is definitely a crap shoot this year. If Rock Your World is the real deal then I will say kudos to him. I just don’t see it.
Concert Tour blew the field away in his race before last and fizzed out in the Arkansas Derby. Only Essential Quality has run multiple impressive races, except for the few lightly raced horses. I just don’t believe that 2 or 3 starts with little foundation is going to win the Derby this year.
Essential Quality on top with 4 or 5 more longshots underneath, I am just going to go it.
I hit 3 trifectas in recent Derby’s, I’ll Have Another, American Pharoah and the Nyquist Derby’s.
Like Steve says sometimes you have to go with your gut. I can’t bet 20 horses. It seems that every year we rack out brains to pick these horses and after the dust settles things clear up.
Good luck! For me it’s clear for my top 2, but the other 18 make for a helluva dust storm.
Steve do you take requests? 🙂
One thing I wish you included in your final derby post is ranking the horses based on pedigree (ability to get 1 1/4 miles). I know you sprinkle pedigree insights into your weekly posts. But would love to see a ranked list (comparison view if you will).
I personally would find that very useful, as that’s the one piece of the puzzle missing in some of my analysis’ for these horses.
Pedigrees are way too complex to rank. There are so many factors involved and some people prefer certain pedigrees over others. I have stated several times that in my opinion the two Pletcher horses, Known Agenda and Dynamic One have the two strongest pedigrees and Bourbonic is not far behind, so PLetcher should have no concerns at all about the 10f. I would put Midnight Bourbon high up there as well as Rock Your world. Those are my top five pedigrees by far.
Appreciate the response Steve, thanks. Good to know you see a distinct separation between those 5 and the rest.
Everyone, put a star by this comment of Steve’s because each of these 5 runners has a great chance to wear the roses, Wise Guy or 50-1 or not! The Bourbon exacta may not be such an underlay after all, based on pedigree at least. Thanks, Steve, for your insights.
Pro Vet how much weight a horse is carrying is only relevant if you know how much weight he’s carried the last 6 months and you cannot monitor that on a computer screen. If e horse is thin and ribby it means little if hes always been thin and ribby. Canonero and Pleasant Colony were always thin and ribby. I’m more interested in how his coat blooms the two or three weeks before the Derby especially if you can a change. I like seeing those dapples start popping up.
Man…..I don’t know, I just don’t know.
First two favorites…easy
Essential Quality 5-2/3-1
Rock Your World 4-1
Then…????????????
Hot Rod Charlie 8-1?
Known Agenda 10-1?
Highly Motivated 10-1?
Will the Baffert Effect put Medina Spirit into the second group? What about the Ark Derby winner, Super Stock? He beat the colt that nearly everyone thought would be the Derby favorite. Tough race to set a morning line.
I feel that Medina Spirit has run a tiring campaign. I won’t be using him in the tri.
I was just trying to figure the ML/post-time odds.
Ah gotcha. I would expect 20-1+.
I am hoping for 10-1 on Known Agenda but doubt I’ll get it. But you never know. He really hasnt gotten a lot of buzz so far. The rest are all question marks
I think A LOT of people will be backing him. Clear 3rd choice just ahead of Hot Rod Charlie, who I feel will be the wise guy horse.
I think you’ll get 10-1. Me too. 🙂 Never underestimate the power of a horse’s name. Known Agenda isn’t a cute or catchy name. Hot Rod Charlie is. Midnight Bourbon, Soup and Sandwich, Hidden Stash. All of those will be overbet because people love the names. Oh yeah…jockey silks, too.
Or if he’s blind in one eye lol
LOL. Too bad there isn’t one this year.
Oh my gosh, Steve you crack me up! I happen to be a faithful follower of the one eyed ponies. I just can’t help myself! lol
I’ve watched every race of every horse, their career progression.
I will be betting O Besos with both fists, dry or muddy track.
Seeing Steve move him up to #6 is reassuring to say the least.
i had i dream……there were more comments…….
What happened? Where is everybody?
Never mind. Tech problems on my end. Sorry.
You had me worried. I thought for a moment that I disappeared.
Don’t you dare leave this site, Eddie. Your sense of humor and clever wit have really added to my enjoyment of Steve’s blog.
Good court jesters are hard to find. LOL
I had logged on some 3 hrs after Steve posted this week’s column and there were only two comments. Most unusual. So I posted “where is everybody”? and suddenly, some 53 comments appeared out of nowhere. I’m wondering…. could it be the Medina Spirit? So spooky!
Thanks, Dewey. I ain’t goin’ anywhere. Somebody has to razz PV. 🙂
Ha! It could be the Spirit. There’s your pick!
Be sure to click REFRESH!
Thanks again, Steve. As always, yes, entertaining and interesting, and usually some great humor mixed in. And thanks for giving those numbers for the horses at the end.
Now if I just knew if big numbers are better or worse than smaller numbers…. ;-). I will see if google will give me a simple answer…
Thanks Linda If you mean Thoro-Graph I have tried to explain it as often as possible. As you can see from the listings below the lower the number the better. Negative numbers are the fastest
thanks google – well, duh, they are in the order of best to worst on your lists…. Thanks Steve 😉 I do appreciate your attempts to get explanations for these numbers to stick with me, but it’s like pouring water on sand….
I enjoy watching the races, and usually share over the phone watching the triple crown with my 80 yr old sister. She usually picks whatever horse Mikey is riding, I usually pick closers if they look really sharp in the post parade and if they have pedigrees that I like and we both pick the ones with the prettiest tails 😉 Sounds like this year, our approaches are as good as any for picking the winner of the Derby. And like most casual race fans, we pick the ones with names we like. So Soup and Sandwich for name and pretty tail, Bourbonic for the plague year. And whoever Mikey is riding. 😉
EQ feels to me like Nyquist in 2016. He also was undefeated and came in with a lot of doubters. Perhaps people feel the need to be contrarian, but there is nothing about EQ to doubt. He needed that BG and, BTW, was going to pull away at the end at a shorter distance. I do have some jockey concern – I’d rather have Irad on Mister Ed – and there is that whole thing about the Tapits. But I think this is Cox’s & Mo’s year, a deserving one if it is.
I dont think there are a lot of doubters with EQ. Just about everyone has him ranked No. 1
i’m in same boat……everything about him is great…….but i pick chuck…..i dont know why….
its called gut feeling
Jockey concern? Are you expecting another DQ with Luis Saez?
For me, the only hurdle Essential Quality has is a bad post. It’s trying to work out who is going to fill the minor placings that is the hard part. Nineteen all appear to have as much chance as running second or third. The best news though is that the weather is supposed to be perfect for Derby day. Good luck.
Hope you had a great weekend Steve. Thanks for getting this out today.
Fantastic weekend, thank you
You would have thoughtKenny McPeak would have learned his lesson after wheeling King Fury back last fAll. Colt has promise if he does it the right way
These workout reports you see on many sites make me laugh. This is the most over rated thing ever. Even Iverson knew! “you talKin “bout PRACTICE?”…….Workouts are not mean’t to be fast….fast is a mistake.
How hard is it to understand? That works show you more about a horse’s disposition, that anything else…..speed crazy horses work great! Lazy horses don’t….A horse worked faster than Bourbonic?…..guess why?……just saw a vid , Mandaloun worked better than another Cox horse….Mandaloun ran off his last race….why do we not know a horse that didnt relax at all in last, is going to outwork another?……a pace horse is going to outwork a come from behind horse……it doesn’t mean anything……yet every year we have these ridiculous reports…..
Every horse is fit…….you only will see bad…..we just want to get thru work with nothing bad happening…the pletcher horse with more speed outworked a big closer?……really?……
Concert tour is a great worker….Caddo is a great worker…..you can make a case that being a great worker is more a flaw, than something great…..
“you talkin bout PRACTICE?……NOT A RACE?…….PRACTICE?……
I talk about how they do it, not the time. I have solidified many a Derby winning bet by a horse’s workout regardless of what you say. Smarty Jones, Street Sense, Monarchos, Barbaro, Animal Kingdom, Real Quiet, Super Saver all had standout works that touted me and steered me in their direction
wasnt talking about you……but if you believe that was the reason, that’s fine…..
Not THE reason…A reason. You said they mean nothing
Ha! From the guy who yesterday boasted about saying (allegedly) that Cezanne was working “like a monster” before his last race.
And stop stealing my Iverson practice/workout joke!!! Who are you? Dane Cook?
LOL
Again……people don’t understand……i go on other things…..not time…….coming off long layoffs, or first outs?…..You do not see the difference?……
Go ahead and go on works…..
The problem is, Fans dont understand the importance of keeping weight on, keeping red blood cell counts high, etc…….they always think faster is great….i told you the truth……what you do with it is your choice.
What you see on works is speed crazy horses work faster than lazy ones…..and everyone takes it as this or that horse is doing better……its so elementary……..i am not wrong…..
Any horse with speed will look like they are doing better than Bourbonic……Mandaloun is a great work horse, Gary the workout genius says Mandaloun looked better than his workmate?…….it is fools gold…..
You all tear down points that are right…..
Who are you talking to?
I am going to ask Mr. Ed in what he thinks Wilbur Post said I could call him.
Phipps sending their storied distaff tail line mare to Lanes End for what is now some of the last remaining strait line NIJINSKY blood seems to have done the trick. Seeing the colt came out a chestnut might just confirm such influence as well… Then there’s EASY GOER place in that prime spot as well… Now the partners just need to decide on who’s silks the Jockey dons for the colts sixth start. He just showed up for me a the prime operative inside the box. Maybe I heard you typing?
It’s helpful if you actually NAME the horse instead of leaving us guessing.
Hey Fave n Foil
I’d venture to say you’re referring to Beat The Drums, the dam of Dynamic One.
Hi Steve
First of all, thank you so much for providing your thoughts and analysis on your Derby Rankings: Week 14.
I was delighted to see O Besos move up from #13 (Week 13), to #6 on Week 14. I’ve got him boxed, at 50-1, with RYW at 31-1. If those two finish one-two in the Derby, my $2.00 exacta payout would be off the chart.
The payout would be as follows; RYW/O Besos = $4,785.00, O Besos/RYW = $7,959.00.
There are a few other bombers that I boxed with RYW. They are: Helium, 28-1, Hidden Stash, 53-1, Highly Motivated, 25-1,
Mandaloun, 36-1, Midnight Bourbon, 27-1 and Dream Shake, 45-1.
BTW, I’m still convinced that RYW is the horse to beat in the Derby, but Known Agenda checks a lot boxes. I believe he’ll be right there with RYW approaching the wire. That said, I’ll key those two on top, in the first two slots, with six others underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots, in my super wager. Those other six horses have yet to be determined.
Thanks again for all you do.
Thanks Bill and good luck with those awesome payoffs.
You’re welcome Steve, and good luck with your Derby wagers.
Wow, best of luck to you Bill.
Thanks Tiznow, good luck to you as well.
Bill:
Best of luck on those awesome exacta wagers! Hope you cash! I am with you on RYW and KA keys: there are a bunch of potentials in the lower slots!
hANDICAPPING , i like poker…..The top 5 are all great hands….everyone should know they all are good…..JJ and QQ are GREAT hands…..but against a raise? and re raise?…..Those great hands are garbage. It’s easy to know a great hand vs a bad hand. To WIN in this game, you have to know which great hand to play vs another great hand….
Even though you KNOW a horse is very good, sometimes you have to predict Its not that you “hate the horse”, you KNOW they are a pair of queens….i can say, “i’m against Known agenda”, and know if he runs like he did, you’re in trouble.
This game is good hand vs good hand….Everyone should know, RYW ran good…..if he runs that same race? He will likely win….i KNOW this too……i am playing against him….for reasons that i have…..If he wins, trolls come out and say “you didn’t like that horse”….it’s kind of strange….again…..do you not know QQ is not great?…..no……but poker is always when to get away from great hands against great hand…….
That is all handicapping is…….the FAV almost always ran the best….you have to know when to go on or against a great hand….
I’m going against RYW and Known Agenda…….yes, i KNOW they can win…..they ran great…..i have them both regressing……if one wins?……”you didn’t like that horse at all”……its kind of funny……
I cant argue with anyone who goes against anyone or who likes anyone. It’s that kind of year. This is not a year for handicapping, it’s a year for guessing and speculating. Some will guess right and most will guess wrong. So sometimes you with your gut feeling or what you see in the morning…this past weekend and these next two weeks especially next weekend’s final works. This weekend it was all about Dynamic One, Soup and Sandwich, and Midnight Bourbon. Those were the three outstanding works IMO.
yes…..that is why lists are a strange thing to argue about…..i never have problems with lists……yes i rarely bet futures, i believe horses change race to race…..so who do you like in feb?…..is fun to think about, but not what handicapping is……do i have fav horses?…sure…..thats not handicapping, more judging talent….i think the best 3 yr old was HAP…..i’m not wrong….someone can say Authentic they are not wrong either….Tiz?…..maybe they are not wrong……
What did you think, Steve, about the bath folly of Midnight Bourbon when he got loose and started jumping though the hay? I thought it was scary stuff. I hope the horse wasn’t injured in any way bc he is one of my top picks this year. Any news?
I think you’re bluffing!
I think it’s a more even playing field than most derbies. As for Bourbonic, considering how slow the fractions were, it should have been more difficult for a horse to come from that far out of it to win. Maybe, just maybe, we have another Mine That Bird.
I wouldnt go by fractions on that track. That was arguably the slowest track in the history of the Wood Memorial. And there are no fields anymore.
Steve should we be reading anything into Essential Quality’s finish in the Blue Grass (looked like he really had to work hard to best Highly Motivated) and his most recent work with Spa City. Even though it was only a work it seems he should have been able to go by Spa City with ease.
Motivated was the lone speed in the race…..this is a great thing, to go out that slow….so, he ran his best race ever….
I wouldnt read anynthing in it. He needed a race like that far more than if he had gone out there and set a slow pace and won by two or three lengths. It was only his second start of the year and the first was a cakewalk. He’s coming into the race just the way he should.
Nothing like Steve Haskin to make you feel better!! Thanks Steve.
In a way…..you can say EQ winning was a perfect not too fast prep……in another way, you can think he was ready to really fire , but didnt run as good as he should with dream trip…..that is what is hard about this game……he was ridden hard, he DID struggle to win….is that good or bad……..i lean to the good……but, it could be a reason to play against…..why didnt he run 103 beyer?…each race does something to a horse……you can be right on 8 of them, wrong on 1……and lose…..
Hello Steve, the KY Derby field is starting to take shape. I really like your top 6 and those are the only ones I will use in my exotics. I have Known Agenda at #1 and O Besos at 5. I have RYW at 2, EQ at 3, DO at 4, and HRC at 6. I will use my top 4 ( the same as yours ) in my P4 and P5. We all acknowledge EQ as being a deserving KY Derby FAV, however Known Agenda will be a much better price and Dynamic One is likely to be at least 20-1. Hopefully Known Agenda and Dynamic One can get a clean break and be no worse than mid pack heading into the first turn. The pace should be hot and should set up for them.
There are so many longshots you can use underneath it makes my head spin.
It’s the Kentucky Derby Presented by Linda Blair!
I read “The Exorcist” as a young teenager, genuinely disturbing at the time.
Bet the field and hope for the biggest upset. Ha ha
Hi Steve. Love your work and the column and the insight you provide. Do you think you could find a way to write a summary of how you see the OAKS this year? Either way, thanks as always.
I appreciate it Robert thank you very much. I still havent seen the Oaks PPs so its hard to handicap the race. It it so wide open with no standouts. If I can get PPs I certainly will provide an analysis of it.
Shaping up to be an exciting Derby!! Have to put money on Rock Your World for obvious reasons! Thanks, Steve!
I like to think of Steve’s analysis after the last prep has been run as how he sees the finish from 1st to 12th. As such, there’s very little to argue (Who am I to argue with Steve Haskin?). But I see Known Agenda and Essential Quality as the only two that have a GOOD chance of winning, maybe a combined 65-70% chance. Steve mentions that it’s looking like Caddo River WILL run, which surprises me considering the owner’s earlier comments. If he does run, it changes considerably how the race will be run. Is he the kind that could wire the field? Based on the history of those that have done it, I’d say “No!” But he could adversely affect those who chase him from 1 to 3 lengths back. And that would increase the chances of EQ and KA even more. This could be the first time since Orb that a Derby winner wasn’t in the top 3 after four furlongs.
Thanks for another impressive effort, Steve. The weekend getaway certainly didn’t dull your creative juices.
You better argue with me. I dont want anyone thinking I know that much more than anyone else. I’m just trying to make it interesting and entertaining. Ive seen enough Derbys to know that having fun on the road there is far more important than having the winner especially if he’s paying $8. I was just hearing some rumblings that they are considering running Caddo River but you never know with John Ed Anthony. He’s been around for ages and you can never tell what hes going to do. Wouldnt surprise me either way
OK! You asked for it. ROCK YOUR WORLD. Three starts, like four others as you mentioned. Who in recent history can we compare him to as a Derby winner? Only Big Brown and Justify. All of them undefeated. BB ahead two dirt races. Justify had three. Meaning? There was a bit more to go on than a single race. But in the final preps: Justify ran the final 3f in 37s. BB did it in 38s. RYW’s final 3f went in 38 2/5.
Speed figs: BB had the top Brisnet at 110, which was 5 better than the next horse; his BSF was 106, 3 points better than the 2nd-best number.
Justify had the top Brisnet at 114, which was 4 points better than the next horse; his BSF was 107, 5 points better than the 2nd-best number.
RYW, as you have shown, is tied with two others for the best Brisnet rating at 102; his BSF is 100, just one point better than the #2.
The race pace is another factor not in RYW’s favor, particularly if Caddo River is in. KA and EQ will benefit from a faster than usual early pace. Then there’s the karma revolving around the dumping of Rispoli. 🙂
First paragraph: BB had [not “ahead”] two dirt races. Gremlins!
AND that’s why Big Brown and Justify—were lower odds than Rock Your World will be….but I agree with VET–if Rock REPEATS his last race he wins….doesn’t need to improve….hasn’t been tested….opens up on them all three races and they were very different race configurations, a week from Saturday Rock will get a two turn dirt race for only the 2nd time—it will be the first time he gets a race like the one before–two-turn dirt, at 4 or 5-1 I like his chances….
how about Barbaro?
Barbaro…5 races…5 is not 3…
… … …
Steve you said it best….three starts and none as a 2yo….but he’s the most intriguing horse in the race—one the one hand a bounce wouldn’t surprise me but on the other hand he’s the kind of horse that after he wins, everyone will be kicking themselves because he did what he always does–spurt away from them!
Hey you see something in the bakery you like among all the goodies so you take a shot. Sometimes its delicious and other times it looks a lot better than it tastes.
This is, perhaps, the best analogy I have ever seen. Hand me one of those brownies, Steve!
Steve Haskin –
Thanks for another week of Derby Rankings. Less than two weeks out, at odds of 30-1 and 50-1, I like Midnight Bourbon and Sainthood. One is speed and the other a closer. Post position draw will determine whether I make the wager.
On another note, I have a question about team workouts. Saw the CD 4-16-21 Pletcher team workout of Known Agenda and Sainthood. After the two crossed the finish line, I was wondering about the weights of the two riders, Irad Ortiz (Known Agenda) and Amelia Green (Sainthood). I assume Ortiz makes a weight of 114 or 115 lbs. Green, who seemed to ride higher in the saddle, appeared to make a slightly larger presence. Could it be 6 or 8 or 10 lbs. more than Ortiz? Or are they of equal weight?
If there is a significant weight difference, is it something to consider in assessing the workout time? Have to admit, I am not a very reliable evaluator of workout videos.
7.5 Furliongs
If its significant, yes, but trainers know what their weights are and everything someone like Pletcher does is for a reason. Sainthood probably is quicker than Known agenda and did look like he was doing it a little easier but KA has had that lazy streak in him and he needed a quick horse to keep him interested. Totally different story in the afternoon.
Good explanation. None of my horse racing friends would have been able to provide those insights. They’re better at discussing women and politics. LOL.
Steve, you’ve given us heaps and heaps to think about, and I really appreciate the numbers summary at the end. (Fascinating how they vary, but still point in the same direction.) I’m a fan of Essential Quality, but since I threw my back out 3 weeks ago — sanding those window frames when I should have been watching your Fla. Derby handicapping show — I’ve been having CHARLIE HORSES. Therefore HRC is my hunch bet. The race is so competitive both horses should pay well if they win.
Hey if Charlie is your key word go for it. No arguments from me. I hope your back gets better.
Its amazing….in a 20-horse field—-how many times the best horse wins.
Hello Steve, great analysis per usual. I have whitled it down to a top 6 which is the same as yours but in a slightly different order. 1- Known Agenda, 2-Rock Your World, 3- Essential Quality. 4- Dynamic One 5- O Besos 6- Hot Rod Charlie. The only difference between our lists is having KA at #1 and elevating O Besos to 5 ahead of HRC. Dynamic One could upset IMO at a price. I will include my top 4 in my P4 and P5. I like Known Agenda for the upset, though Dynamic One seems to be peaking at the right time and could upset at a big price.
I really want to have KA at No. 1 because I think he’s more dependable with all that foundation, but I committed to RYW and the last thing you want to do is lower him right before the Derby and have him win. But as you will see from my handicapping column, KA will be my main win best at a better price.
Edit. Under Charlie, you site Sadler instead of O’Neill.
Fixed. It’s called 14 week brain freeze with names all scrambled in the brain
when Pensive, i Ponder, with very little Whiskery Regret,
do i wager Twenty Grand, or Spend a Buck, on a sure bet?
seldom can i Justify, a Bold Venture, without a wish upon a Pink Star,
for i’ve seen too much Foolish Pleasure, in many an Omaha or Johnstown bar,
most touts i know, are now mere Vagrants, neither Lucky, nor Debonair,
Sir Barton was indeed a Gallant Fox, but Smarty Paul Jones had no hair,
this year you’ll find no borail, and Gato Del Sol would be a Spectacular Bid,
so, after i handicap every Broker’s Tip, my mayday long shot will become, un hid…
however, Lookout, and anticipate not, for i’ve been Decidedly Shut Out since 1982,
that’s why i now read His Eminence, mister haskin, as i’m way, way overdue…
Kudos! It is Affirmed that you Strike the Gold with that poem.
My goodness that is very creative. Thank you for all that brain power. We’ll have to put that in the vault among the archives.
Btw did you mean to say Dark Star?
pink is also, a winning color….and 1907 was a very good year.
Okey doke
🙂
I give you Plaudit for you Agile prose, whose Proud Clarion call can leave us always Dreaming of Seeking the Gold.
Please forgive my copying,or perhaps highest form of flattery? Yours was well done. I trust you know your Worth.