Final Derby Rankings: Week 15
Although the long road to the Derby is over and the Rankings will soon prove to be mere folly, as long as we all had a good time and made new friends it was a journey to remember. We still have a feeble attempt at handicapping on Wednesday evening and then it’s back to “Askin’ Haskin” and weekly columns about those special horses and races from the past and whatever subject pops into my head. And watch out for an interesting contest coming up before the Preakness. I want to thank everyone for all your wonderful, informative, and well-researched comments and for making this the best Derby trail I’ve been on since I started Derby Dozen 22 years ago. ~ Steve Haskin
Final Derby Rankings: Week 15, Apr. 25
Early Bird Edition By Steve Haskin
1. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
Let’s get right down to the nitty gritty. It’s pretty obvious by now that I believe this is the most gifted horse in the race, who has true star potential. When we will see the finished product I don’t know. But before you commit big bucks to him now, be wary of two things. You don’t want him drawing an inside post, like post 5 and in, and he needs to break sharply. With Caddo River out, if he does draw inside, Rosario may have no choice but to send him to the lead. He may want to send him anyway, because he is the one horse capable of running his opponents off their feet and keep going. He is a big long striding horse and you don’t want to get him stopped early and have to get him going again. And he has never experienced kickback before. Remember, he’s only had three career starts and one on the dirt, so he is still in the learning process. This is not to say he cannot overcome these things. He is really sharp now following two strong works, including a :59 1/5 gem on Saturday with another strong gallop-out. He does have high knee action, much like Barbaro, another horse who excelled on grass and dirt. If he doesn’t break sharply he and Rosario will somehow have to find a good position quickly. The ideal trip for him is have a clean break from a decent post and get a clear trip outside horses. But that doesn’t always happen in the Derby. We don’t know what this colt is capable of overcoming, only what we have seen so far. And what we’ve seen is a horse with extraordinary talent who has accomplished things far beyond his years, whether it be on grass or dirt, six furlongs or 1 1/8 miles, or on or off the pace. He has the ability to quickly separate himself from other horses and he has several gears that can be used anywhere on the track at anytime. Just hold off until you see where he draws and how he trains over the track.
2. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
While we’re getting down to the nitty gritty, I’ve been on him since last fall and he is still my main win bet at what I hope will be a decent price. He is the logical third choice, but after the way some people have trashed his first work Churchill Downs and his drifting out in the Florida Derby I am hoping they will start looking elsewhere for their third choice. The fact is he has never been a great work horse, while Sainthood, who worked in company with him in both his works, has always been an excellent work horse, and it makes sense that Pletcher would pair them up to get a good sharp work into Known Agenda, which he did on both occasions. If you thought Sainthood has looked the better of the two that should not be worrisome at all. He got Known Agenda to to work five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 and then 1:01. That’s about a dozen lengths faster than he worked at Palm Beach Downs all winter. In his first work I love the way he dropped his head nearing the wire and then kept going a good clip galloping out seven furlongs in 1:27 1/5. As for the drifting out in the Florida Derby, it’s not as if he did it on his own. As soon as he turned into the stretch, Ortiz pasted him with a left-handed whip. Even when he shied away from the whip Ortiz kept hitting him left-handed. The more he hit him the more he kept drifting out. Finally after nine smacks with the whip, he stopped drifting out and actually cut back to the inside. Why Ortiz hit him the second he straightened into the stretch and kept hitting him left-handed I have no idea. All you need to know about Known Agenda is that he has been a totally different horse since blinkers were added, and instead of being immature, moody, and sometimes unfocused, he now runs like a seasoned professional and has been in complete control of his last two races even down the backstretch. In short, the boy has grown into a man.
3. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
He has quietly gone about his business with little fanfare, but that’s always been him. He just goes out there every race and every workout and does his job, and no one has yet figured out how to beat him. I believe his action has improved a bit and he seems smoother now, and, as I’ve mentioned several times he can beat you from anywhere on the track. If you want to look for something to nitpick, although his final work was a solid five-eighths in 1:00 1/5, he could not get by his workmate in the stretch or in the gallop-out, which was a slow :14 1/5. Sometimes works can help you and sometimes they can confuse you even more, especially when a Derby favorite does something in his final work your weren’t expecting and is the opposite of what he has shown in his races. Cox said he was on the radio telling the rider not go to go too fast after the wire. So if you like the horse, as most people do, you have to be careful not to temper your enthusiasm based on a workout, especially the gallop-out. I’m sure some people will now start looking at the Blue Grass and focusing more on how he struggled to get past Highly Motivated who was making his two-turn debut and wondering if there is a tie-in between that and not passing his workmate. Just keep in mind that Essential Quality traveled 29 feet farther than Highly Motivated. I have given preference in the Rankings to horses who I believe have stronger mile and a quarter pedigrees, but I still acknowledge him as the horse to beat and a legitimate favorite. He’s done nothing wrong and no doubt is the most adaptable horse in the race along with Hot Rod Charlie.
4. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
As much as I have liked him, especially the rate at which he’s been improving, I like him even more since watching his final work. This time there was no late-running Bourbonic to work with him; this time he worked with the brilliant Prime Factor, whose maiden victory back in January stamped him as Pletcher’s main hope for the Derby. He wanted to go right from the start, but still had his ears up. Jose Ortiz kept him a bit wide turning for home, as the two came down the stretch together. Dynamic One was striding out smoothly flicking his ears around with the pair hitting the wire together in a sharp :47 4/5 with a final eighth in :11 3/5. Despite being on the outside, when Ortiz nudged him going into the turn he left Prime Factor behind, still flicking his ears and continued to pour it on, rattling off eighths in :12 and change to get the five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 and the six furlongs in 1:13 1/5. You normally don’t see Pletcher horses work this fast, and he did it well within himself. That was as perfect a work as you could ask for. This colt is sharp, improving at the right time, and I believe ready for a big effort.
5. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Indan Miss, by Indian Charlie)
What might have gotten lost in his Louisiana Derby victory, which is now run at 1 3/16 miles, was that he came home his final three-sixteenths in :18 3/5 and he did it on the lead the whole way. If that odd final fraction doesn’t quite compute, think about this: it is faster than the Preakness final three-sixteenths of Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, one-time track record holders Nashua and Canonero, and, oh, yes, Secretariat, whose revised time shattered all the records before it. Heck, it was even faster than his own sire. So perhaps we should take the Louisiana Derby more seriously, especially when it was won by a horse who had never even been on the lead before, had never run over the track before, and had to turn back the challenge of the top-class Midnight Bourbon who was already a graded stakes winner over the track. I was never crazy about the six weeks between the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby and the fact that no Kentucky Derby winner in memory has come directly out of the Louisiana Derby. But I believe the longer distance will change that and I do like the way Hot Rod Charlie has been working and how strong he’s been past the wire, especially in his most recent six-furlong work in 1:13 3/5 before the first race. So with all that said you have to put Charlie right up there with the other betting choices, but also be aware that he has not gotten any faster since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with three straight “3 ¾” Thoro-Graph figures, which will have to improve.
6. O Besos (Greg Foley, Orb – Snuggs and Kisses, by Soto)
If you were impressed by Hot Rod Charlie’s closing three-sixteenths in the Louisiana Derby and its Preakness comparisons then you should also be aware that O Besos came home a fifth of a second faster, in :18 2/5. That’s two-fifths faster than Secretariat in his record-breaking Preakness. And O Besos was making only his second start going two-turns and actually got the fastest Thoro-Graph figure in the race, a full point faster than the victorious Hot Road Charlie. He turned in his final Derby work on Thursday and you can bet his stock will rise, as he seems to be a bit of a wise guy horse and was even before the work. Foley worked him a half-mile from the three-eighths pole to the seven-eighths pole, which is an eighth of a mile past the wire. I love seeing that with a horse like this because it teaches them to run through the wire, and O Besos is a horse who picks up steam the farther he goes, and you want him to be in full flight when he hits the wire. As mentioned with Hot Rod Charlie, the six week-gap between the Louisiana and Kentucky Derby has not been ideal, so you want to see a long stiff work to put more conditioning in them. At first glance, his half-mile work in :47 4/5 is fast, but not the lung opener you thought you’d see. However, O’ Besos’ work didn’t really begin in earnest until he hit the finish line. After flying his final eighth in :11 3/5, he kept going at a strong clip with another eighth in :11 4/5 to get the five furlongs in :59 3/5 and he still was far from finished. He went his six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 and finally pulled up seven furlongs in 1:26. That is the lung opener you want to see. Now he’s ready and you can expect him to be coming fast at the end.
7. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
He had a sharp half-mile work in :47 1/5 at Keeneland before moving to Churchill Downs where he looked strong working five furlongs in company in 1:00 4/5. Although he is one of a number of brilliant colts who have the same running style and could get caught up in a contentious pace near the lead, you have to love his three straight 102 Brisnet speed ratings, his improving Beyer figures, and his excellent Thoro-Graph pattern, in which he followed a pair of solid “3s” with a “1 ¼” in the Blue Grass Stakes, the second fastest number behind Essential Quality. So we know he’s fast and we know he can run big on or off the pace. It’s just a question whether he can move forward going a mile and a quarter, especially if he’s under pressure the whole way. We always have that concern with the Into Mischiefs unless they have a stamina-laden female family. Authentic did disprove that last year, but he was left alone on the lead in both the Kentucky Derby, run in September, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. How they will do on the first Saturday in May with all that early speed is something we’ll just have to wait to find out. He certainly has the talent and the speed figures so it all depends on how the race plays out and where he draws. He is one of several horses capable of setting the pace with Caddo River out.
8. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
From a pure physical standpoint he is a standout. His coat is shining, he’s muscled out, and is carrying great flesh. It seems apparent the six weeks between races has a agreed with him, as it has given him time to grow into a magnificent-looking horse. His workout was very strong, and if this equates to performance then he has to be considered a live longshot. It’s all about strategy with the big question being can he catch horses in the stretch, something he failed to do in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby? But when allowed to control the pace on the front end he proved to be a dogged competitor refusing to let horses pass him. Trying to get the lead in the Derby is not going to be easy, so his next course of action would be to press the pace and use that Tiznow determination to keep up the pressure with the hope of tiring out the other pace horses. But if no one seems anxious to take the lead he would be the perfect horse to take the initiative, as he is the one they would probably leave alone. There is little doubt he will like the mile and a quarter. His Thoro-Graph numbers have improved steadily and if he has figured out a way to finish the job in the stretch then all those physical attributes come into play on Derby Day.
9. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
I’m not sure Baffert’s confidence level is what it usually is, but I still wouldn’t ignore him, at least underneath in the exotics. He’s too tough and honest to do that. In his most recent work, he did it in his usual manner, but when asked at the wire as most Baffert horses are, the typical acceleration just wasn’t there. I don’t like to dismiss a horse because of one part of a work, especially the part after the wire, so I’m not going to make a lot out of it. But it still is something worth mentioning. I do believe he has improvement in him off his second in the Santa Anita Derby, but we’ll have to see how much and if he can show any finishing power, which has not been his strong point. Like fellow Californian Hot Rod Charlie, his speed figures have not improved. They’ve been pretty much the same every race. Could that be a reflection of the California horses with the exception of Life is Good? He is a horse you would love to be right in the mix turning for home, even somehow getting the lead, because his one stakes victory was when he was able to set the pace and battle gamely in the stretch, refusing to let Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie get by him. I’m still looking for a scenario where he can win, but I don’t know what his strengths are. I do know he should be competitive enough to be in the hunt.
10. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen, Dialed In – Super Girlie, by Closing Argument)
He is sort of like Bourbonic in that he closed strongly to win one of the major 100-point preps, but no one really knows how good he is or how good a race it was, as the favorite or favorites all were disappointing and most of the speed ratings were slow, as was the final three-eighths. So neither horse is really getting much respect. Would it be a surprise if he won the Derby? Absolutely not. You cannot fault him in any way and he did close after tracking a very fast pace in the Arkansas Derby and he is a horse on the improve. There was nothing to knock in his final work, as he went a solid five-eighths in company in 1:01 1/5 and did it easily. This sounds very simple and not informative at all, but you either like him or you don’t. You can make a case either way. I went into the reasons to like him last week and you have to love his back story regarding the Asmussen family connection. He certainly is an easy horse to root for. He should be closing in the stretch and we’ll just have to see if he’s good enough.
11. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse, Into Mischief – Souper Soup, by Tapit)
Again, the three starts, the pace scenario, and his previous greenness is a bit of a concern, but if there is one horse who has made great strides mentally and whose engine is revved up it is this colt, who has been on go in his two works at Churchill Downs. In his most recent one he was very aggressive early wanting to go, but did settle into a good stride and again drew off from his workmate to complete the half in :50, again galloping out very strong, in what was more of a maintenance drill compared to his work last week, which was also very strong. It’s hard to imagine him not being part of the early pace that will include three brilliant sons of Into Mischief. As good as he looked in the Florida Derby I feel it was a better race than it looked and I loved the way he hung tough in the stretch despite being shoved back on to his left lead turning for home and staying there the rest of the way. He has switched leads smoothly in both his works and I feel he should be over that problem. Like with so many others I don’t know if he’s ready to win the Derby, but he is going to be right there in the stretch and could hang around a long time. With him it’s not about ability, but whether he is mature enough mentally to handle this off only three starts and just now becoming more professional.
12. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Bernardini – Dancing Afleet, by Afleet Alex)
For a Wood Memorial winner and a colt with a super pedigree who no doubt is improving rapidly he gets very little respect and is being dismissed as merely a plodder who got lucky in a very slowly run race. Pletcher actually put him in front in his workout in company with Dynamic One and he clearly was second best. He then turned in some strong gallops, making a great physical appearance on the track. Pletcher then decided to give him his final work by himself and he just went around there easy going his half in :49 3/5, out five furlongs in 1:02 2/5. That’s a sneaky fast eighth in :12 4/5 past the wire. He really is a good-looking horse with a nice smooth stride and a top-class pedigree. He obviously will be pace dependent and they will use the same tactics of taking far back and making the same kind of big late run he did in the Wood. Dynamic One got far faster Thoro-Graph figures in the Wood, having to go 43 feet farther, and he is the one who looks as if he is going to get bet down in the Derby. Even if you missed Bourbonic at 72-1 you’re still going to get huge odds for a major prep winner whose sire and broodmare sire won memorable runnings of the Preakness Stakes.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
KING FURY – A lot of people were hoping the Lexington Stakes winner would get in the Derby, especially his trainer Kenny McPeek, after his impressive victory in the slop, in which he made a long sustained run going from a dozen lengths back at the five-eighths pole to the lead turning for home before drawing away. With only one start this year I gave him little thought until I saw his work. Considering he worked alone, going five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, that was the best work I saw the past two weeks. The way he was reaching out with his neck extended and flicking his ears around, while cutting out :11 and change eighths the whole way, was pure poetry, pardon the cliché. I also loved the way he cut both corners hugging the rail, which shows how quick and athletic he is. What was most impressive about his gallop-out was that, while most horses who continue strong past the wire do it with some urging, his rider stood up at the wire and he still went out in 1:12 4/5 and 1:26 3/5 all on his own with the rider up in the saddle. Back at his barn he was “eating the bottom out of his feed tub.” This is another historical head scratcher with him having only made his 3-year-old debut three weeks prior to the Derby and at a mile and a sixteenth over a mediocre field. But he has a lot of bottom under him from last year and really developed during his 60 days at Three Chimneys Farm where he was out in his paddock almost 24 hours a day getting stronger. He did have an issue that contributed to his last two poor efforts, but after running Thoro-Graph numbers in the “8” to “12” range he returned from the farm and ran a “3” in the Lexington. I still don’t like him having one race, but after watching the Lexington again and his work, nothing he does would surprise me. He just may be that good.
KEEPMEINMIND – There is a lot more to ponder with this horse than one would think as he sneaks into the Derby at the 11th hour. First off, let’s not forget that he was one the top 2-year-olds last year and was ranked No. 2 in the first Derby Rankings, which you might want to go back and read. Since then, nothing has gone right for him, beginning with the cancellation of racing and training at Oaklawn, which means he couldn’t go to the track to train for 16 days. This happened when he was razor-sharp for his debut in the Southwest Stakes, which had to be postponed. Unfortunately, it was rescheduled for two weeks before the Rebel Stakes, for which he was also targeted. Not being able to run in both races he had to wait an additional two weeks to the Rebel and was so out of whack, having missed so much training and his scheduled debut, he showed nothing, which was uncharacteristic for such an honest and consistent horse. Instead of staying home and running in a weak Arkansas Derby he made his next start in the Blue Grass and received one of the more curious rides I’ve seen all year. Breaking from the disadvantageous outside post, instead of taking back as is his custom, he moved up with the leaders and was forced five wide going into the first turn. He then was rushed up between horses down the backstretch and was only two lengths off the lead in third, much to my shock. He still was third turning into the stretch, but finally got tired, bumping with another horse. Also, Keepmeinmind traveled 55 feet farther than runner-up Highly Motivated. Now he will race without blinkers, which I never thought he needed in the first place, and should take back and make one late run. While everyone was watching all the Derby works on Friday no one noticed him working a half in a bullet :46 1/5, fastest of 108 works at the distance, a work Churchill Downs never showed or even videoed. This is a horse who was second (without blinkers) and third to Essential Quality in Grade 1 stakes at 52-1 and 30-1 and closing fast each time. As I said, something to ponder.
BROOKLYN STRONG – Guess who’s coming to dinner? He is the guest who shows up unexpectedly just as you’e putting the food on the table. He attempted the unthinkable making his 3-year-old debut in the Wood Memorial and actually ran a sneaky-good race, finishing fifth, beaten 4 ¾ lengths. He broke sharply and jockey Manny Franco had to pull back on the reins in the first turn to try to get him to settle off the pace. He moved up steadily and then seemed to lose momentum on the far turn. But he kept coming and cut the corner turning for home and looked like he was going to be a factor. But two horses drifted in, closing up the rail and forcing Franco to steady briefly at the three-sixteenth pole. But Brooklyn Strong still kept coming and was running hard at the end in what was a terrific effort going a mile and an eighth in top company off more than a four-month layoff. He already had a lot of bottom under him with two victories at a flat mile and a courageous score in the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes. His pedigree is inundated with stamina top and bottom and it is interesting to note that his sire’s broodmare sire, Charismatic, won the Derby at odds of 31-1 and his dam’s broodmare sire, Thunder Gulch, won the Derby at odds of 24-1. To show what a weird Derby this is, I am making a huge case for the last three horses to get in the race.
MANDALOUN – Well, at least he’s looked great on the track in the morning and is acting like a horse sitting on a big race. He’s just a beautiful colt with a long fluid stride and his last two works were strong. But no horse in at least the last half-century has won the Derby off such a poor performance. So you can toss hm off that or you can toss the Louisiana Derby and chalk it up to just a bad day. Even if that race was an aberration, did he get enough out of it and can he come back six weeks later and return to his Risen Star form? There is no doubt he’s very talented and will be a top horse a bit down the road, but bouncing back to win the Derby is another matter. If you do want to make a case for him and throw out history, most horses who run bad races don’t come back in the Derby and those that do usually try to rebound in three or four weeks. Six weeks might be just the right amount of time he needs to regroup, and he has shown all the signs of a horse who is doing just that. Yet another puzzle to deal with this year.
HELIUM – If this colt had another start after the Tampa Bay Derby I believe he would be one of the favorites. What he did in that race was remarkable, but it was so long ago we tend to forget it. I certainly gushed over it. Mark Casse said in his 40 years of training he has never had a horse do what he did in the Tampa Derby and I agree that you just don’t see horses do that. Casse is well aware that what he is trying to do in the Kentucky Derby has never been done before, but he loves going against the grain and welcomes the challenge of trying to pave new ground. And if this horse proved one thing at Tampa it’s that he is capable of running a sensational race off a long layoff. But the Tampa Derby isn’t the Kentucky Derby. I have no doubt this is an extraordinarily talented colt, but before I can concede that what he is attempting is doable and will defy history I have to see it first. I will say however, watch out for this guy later in the year. I did like his last work, in which he was very smooth throughout, doing everything on his own, then was a strong on the gallop-out. Just to mention it again, he will be attempting to become the first horse to win the Derby off an eight-week layoff, off one start at 3, and never having run farther than 1 1/16 miles in over 100 years.
SAINTHOOD – The more I see of him the more I feel he could make his presence felt. Watching his last two races, he showed something you love to see and that is the determination and ability to kick into another gear when he sees the finish line and quickly accelerate. In the Jeff Ruby Steaks he did it after a terrible trip and when he was hit with a right-handed whip nearing the sixteenth pole it was as if his rider had floored the gas pedal, that’s how fast he took off. He has made a great appearance in the morning working with Known Agenda and then turning in some powerful gallops. He has just made a great impression out there. Can he win the Derby off three career stakes, with his only stakes appearance being on Polytrack? Once again, he looks like a horse to watch later on, but who really knows what he’s capable of in the Derby. Some of the experts are starting to like him to use underneath in thir exotics.
LIKE THE KING – He remains at Keeneland where he worked five furlongs in 1:01. He is another horse who is strictly a guess. If you like him you have to like Sainthood, who had a far worse trip in the Jeff Ruby Steaks and was flying at the end. There is nothing to fault with him other than having no clue how good he is or who he was beating at Turfway and how he will make the transition from Polytrack to dirt. We know he has a closing kick, but this is a whole new ballgame.
HIDDEN STASH – With no one watching he quietly worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5, then the following day schooled at the gate. This is a really nice horse who gives his all every race and he does have a decent closing kick. He just hasn’t shown yet he’s good enough to beat these horses, and until he does he has to be considered more of an exotics filler at best. Look, in this field any horse who can close and is honest and consistent can finish on the board if they get a perfect setup and a perfect trip.
Happy Kentucky Derby day Steve. Happy May Day. Bloodhorse not home without you. This is the only Derby list we need. LOVE, Happiness Noel.
HANDICAPPING COLUMN IS NOW POSTED, SO PLEASE POST ALL NEW COMMENTS OVER THERE. THANKS
Steve, I know you’ve already received many thank yous from your followers, and I’d like to add another. Many thanks for the time you put in, this has been a ton of fun, and we wouldn’t have it if it weren’t for you! Already looking forward to next year.
I’d also like to add this, I am SO grateful to the horseracing industry for staying OUT of politics!!! It’s a breath of fresh air to know that when I turn on TVG or go to the track, I will not hear a word about politics!! Just horseracing, and that’s the way it should be. So cheers to horseracing!!
And thank you to all of your followers on this blog for staying out of it as well, thank you all!
Thank you very much, Bruce. I really appreciate the kind words. And amen to your mention of the posters hee, yourself included. Racing has enough political problems to get involved with politics.
JUST A REMINDER THE HANDICAPPING AND ANALYSIS COLUMN SHOULD BE POSTED BY 8:30 TONIGHT
Wager strategy #3019…… $2 TRIFECTA–15—with 6,7,8,9,14—cost $40……..then another ticket 6,7,8,9,14 tri boxed for $50 cents cost $60…because if Rock Your World doesn’t win I think he’s off the board, total cost is $100 and that’s a wrap!
Midnight Bourbon schooling the last 2 days has really been on his toes. Horse looks like an Adonis, will be interesting to see him pre race Saturday. Peaking my interest more and more, I’ll say that.
I write about his looks in my column tonight
For those of you, like me, who are worried about the post draw for Known Agenda. Here is an excerpt from a 2020 Bloodhorse article about the new starting gate they will be using at Churchill. I definitely don’t mind my favorite getting a ground-saving trip starting off in the 3 path.
“The horse breaking from the inside post will break farther away from the rail this year, as will the horse on the far outside relative to the outer rail, Jordan said. This is due to the length of the gate being shorter than the two other gates combined while also considering the gap between the two.
The interior of the stalls are an inch and a half wider than the track’s usual gate, Jordan said, though the dividers between the stalls are narrower.
“So rather than coming out like from the 1 (post), where it used to be, you’re almost coming out of the 3 path,” he said. “So instead of coming out of the 20, the way it used to be, you’re almost down to like the 18 or the 17.”
Add to that, with a late scratch, the first stall is left open.
MEDINA SPIRIT………..he pulled himself up, turning for home in race he won on lead. His ears went up, went to right lead too early. Thats how much he idled……..this is why he had more horse to fight off charlie…..you do NOT want to be on lead….horses that do this need a target………if they go to lead, it is a bad decision….know your horse!
BAD SIGN ALERT…………..SEARCH RESULTS……..dont think she is very sound……i expect her not to last……..looks great on paper….
Yup. Never changed leads.
other things…..
I still think people should look at how RYW breaks from gate……….its not that good………thinking he can just rush up is not that easy…..he may have to check……..in 6 horse field, you can……in 20?……..uh oh…..
He got a jockey change for one, Rosario got the ride for a reason. I don’t really think he needs the lead. He’s big and fast and has been training well. More interested in how EQ handles it and what King Fury will do. If you recall Secretariat didn’t break that well either in his Derby. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Rock Your World maybe not as far back as Red was but the same kind of drive down the stretch. We all find out on Saturday. Anything can happen in the Derby. I do see Hot Rod Charlie going straight to the lead. Got the perfect spot to do it from.
SA Derby he didn’t break well…came out of the 2-slot, with 7 horses to his outside….Kentucky he’ll have 5 horses to his outside, and he is lucky for the one big gate–no gap to contend with, in his only time riding him Rosario got him right out there with the leaders, and his lead change was good…in SA Derby he kept switching leads but I watched Candy Ride’s three US races, he was a back-and-forth switcher, too…oh oh I left it open for a joke or two!
He wont have to stand in the gate too long
I love a horse on Friday. Souper Sensational in the Eight Belles, 6-1 ML. Loves 7 furlongs and gets to a new dirt course that I am convinced she will like better than Fairgrounds. Working a hole in the wind.
Thanks
Your the only eyes I trust, Who is on the Muscle and Bloom?
Standout is Midnight Bourbon
Thank you. Your the BEST!!!!!!!!!
With you, Steve, on Known Agenda to win. Can’t knock the deserving favorite EQ either. I’m encouraged by recent $2 exacta payouts on favorites over 9-1 shots: 2015, American Pharoah and Firing Line paid $72.60; 2018, Justify and Good Magic paid $69.60. Of course, the KA/EQ exacta will be even better!
Cant knock Essential Quality. Those exactas are good, but with so many bets and different ways to make big bucks how much do you have to bet to make money. If you have enough to bet a $10 exacta it might be worth it. But you wont make a killing
If I were betting to make a killing, I’d be in the poor house….except there isn’t one.
After draw, Mandaloun looks to sit the trip. My opinion.
Until he fades into the sunset like the LD….
That could very well be the case. Definitely more bluegrass cat than thunder gulch, if he’s not el Padrino, but should have no excuse with the draw.
Hello.
Always a great Kentucky Derby analysis from one of the best writers in the history of the sport. Thank you for posting Steve Haskin’s work here. He’s been there and he’s earned it. And thank you Steve! PS I like Hot Rod Charlie 🙂
Thank you so much, George. I really appreciate it. I think Charlie is going to a lot of play. Getting some buzz.
Known Agenda dead to rights on the inside. One horse breaking hard left or right dominoes Essential and RYW out of contention. Hello monster trifecta.
Yeah,good look with that.
You guys buy too much hype……it is not bad, unless it is bad…..any post can have trouble
Your Post?
“…..and coming to the wire it’s Rock Your World by seven…HURRY, O’BESOS, the exacta door is open!”….
Pat Day Mile has horses that participated in most of the preps- SA Derby, Wood, Lexington, Blue Grass, BC Juv. May be a good measuring stick for Derby.
Yes DES…!
I see three flag-bearers:
Jackie’s Warrior for ESSENTIAL QUALITY
Prevalence for Bourbonic and Dynamic One
Dream Shake and Defunded for ROCK YOUR WORLD
Starrininmydreams for KING FURY
We will have more than 4 hours to ponder the correlation between the Pat Day Mile and the Derby…!
Back to Square 1 if Prevalence wins big?
I need at least four hours before the Derby to answer that question … LOL
The Pat Day appears to be a match between Jackie’s Warrior and Dream Shake.
Just interested to see how Prevalence runs on a fast going though !
I think that Sittin On Go will improve. 🙂
That horse has been running like Romans SAT on him……
OK, that is funny.
Ouch! LOL
He’s won a race at CD.
Prevalence asked too much too soon…perhaps Bob’s Defunded was asked too much too soon in the SA Derby…Jackie ran TWO bad ones, am hoping Prevalence can rebound!
Same here. I’m not giving up on Prevalence. He should give a good account of himself in a very competitive race.
Looks like a great race. I always liked Dream Shake, he was game in the SA Derby and Prevalence caught that awful track at AQU.
Hello Steve, I made a tweek to my top 5 but did not change my horses. I moved RYW to #1. I have EQ at #2. I moved Dynamic One up to #3. I dropped Known Agenda to #4. I kept O Besos at #5. Four of my horses drew well except Known Agenda. However IMO Irad might be able to get a good ground saving trip coming off the pace for Known Agenda. With the new gate the 1 hole is 15 feet farther to the right. This is a big difference. I still view KA as a big upset contender and because he drew the rail he will be at least 10-1. I will use RYW,EQ,Dynamic One and Known Agenda in my pick4. I like O Besos but I view him more as a bomb exotic filler and not a serious win contender.
I agree about KA and rail but I dont believe he will be 10-1 unless some big money comes in on Hot Rod Charlie and Highly Motivated
Using the greatest angle in the history of the Kentucky Derby: win bets on Sainthood (50-1 ML), Soup and Sandwich (30-1), and Super Stock (30-1). Easy as Shepherd’s Pie.
Good bet for some dummy named Steve
All the Steves I know are pretty smart.
Can Flightline get in..LOL
LOL. If he had gotten in, he might have been the second favorite. 😉
I am still sticking with Essential Quality and Rock Your World as #1 and #2. Their post positions are good. It is concerning though EQ did not get by his workmate. But as you noted, Steve, he can win from a number of spots in a race. I think I will have Hot Rod Charlie in 3rd, Known Agenda 4th (not the best post position but doable), Soup and Sandwich 5th. There are so many horses in this race that will have a shot at winning or hitting the board. I think more than in any recent Derby. A bunch that could be peaking at just the right time. Super Stock, Helium and Bourbonic are also live ones. O Besos and Medina Spirit I am not counting out to hit the board either. Baffert’s horses can never be counted out. Learned that a long time ago. This is going to be a very exciting Derby. Thank you Steve for a wonderful Derby Dozen-maybe the best ever. You write about these horses with a keen and knowledgeable eye and always look for the positives in every horse.
Thank you very much Paula. Its been my best from an enjoyment standpoint
Exactly my selections Paula. Hope things are going well for you.
Paula,
Always nice to see your name pop up. Hope your Derby plans work out if mine don’t. We are not so far off so maybe we can both come out cheering our picks. Good to see you here supporting the straw who stirs the drink…. that would be you Steve.
Does anyone have any feedback on the story about the furniture owner from Houston? The story as related is he is going bet 2 million to win on favorite to cover his own business promotion. How much does anyone think it will skew odds or it doesn’t matter?
That’s Runhappy’s owner. He will bet enough to hedge his promotion. Could be $4M at 2-1 but he will bet late. In 2019 win pool on Improbable was $7M out of $42M. He will move the line. We will know when he has placed the bet.
He won a big bet on Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl this year….I HOPE he doesn’t like Rock!
He has already placed a $500,000.00 bet on EQ.
Rock Your World is my pick. I did like Known Agenda but not coming out of the 1 hole. I don’t see this year being one where an undefeated Essential Quality will win the Roses. I see a big tri payout ahead for those lucky enough to figure out who will pick up the pieces. I have to put an emo bet on Keep bc I always loved Victory Gallop. Best of Luck to all. May all the horses and riders have a clean trip.
If RYW wins it won’t be a big payout.
size of price can certainly be big with RYW winning….just matters who follows……and who does not…..which matters even more……….
Depends on your perception of “Big”. You’re not winning a 5 figure Tri if one of the favorites come in 1st most likely.
You will if you bet more on the tri …1989 the favorites were one/two….I had $153 and bet three $51 trifectas— Sunday Silence 1st…Easy Goer 2nd and three horses for 3rd, one was Dansil paid me $5100 for my $153, the top two—the only two horses under 10-1 ran one/two…..and there was less than 20 horses….if you like Rock you can key him for, say a $5 tri….find the next two you can include a few and keep it under $100…if you hit you hit big! Only on the Derby!
Of course, 1989 wasn’t normal….Easy Goer was 3/5 and Sunday Silence was 3-1….
It’s only Tuesday and it appears I am really late to this party. I was out of town for a few days. Before I read all the comments I want to thank Steve for his tireless work on this years edition of the Kentucky Derby. For 15 weeks we have been blessed in reading all of Steve’s assessments and knowledgeable reporting on most of these young horses. To make any sense out of 2021 was be a daunting undertaking to say the least. It would be like Hercules cleaning the Aegean Stables. Nevertheless, Steve I wish to thank you for keeping us involved and excited year after year. I wish nothing but good fortune in your selections. I kinda see it a little different but I could be wrong.
1. Essential Quality- he is the king until he is dethroned. He has foundation, he is versatile & he knows how to fight for a win.
2. Highly Motivated- If he is the up & coming horse then he easily could win the Derby. I think he is primed for a great effort.
3. Dynamic One- I am hoping he is good enough to get in the exotics, I like the way he runs & can really improve.
4. Known Agenda- obviously we can’t rule him out. Florida Derby winners have done very well in the Ky. Derby
5. Soup & Sandwich- just hoping he gets a piece of the purse
6. Medina Spirit- I think he is a fighter and is good enough to hit the board.
Rock Your World is appearing to be many folks choice. Is he another Animal Kingdom & Justify?
If he is as good as Steve thinks he is then it makes sense that he will win. I just don’t like the 3 races & having only raced at Santa Anita.
I can’t see how O Besos have moved up so high. Every year we get one of these horses who appears to be sitting on a big race. I just don’t see it but it is horse racing and anything is possible.
Good luck to all & thank you again Steve 🙂
Thank you, Deacon, I really appreciate the kind words. Good luck with all your bets.
Good Luck to you Deacon. Good picks as always.
Hey Deacon! How’s it going?
I always read your words more than once, and am most glad to have done today. Brooklyn Strong has the highest Tomlinson Distance rating (355, with an *, and the next highest is Rock, at 314), AND the highest BRIS speed figure at 107 (in the Remsen), with the next best at 102. If I’m reading these correctly. With your nod, it looks like a nice 50-1 shot. I would like to know more about the reasons for the layoff.
He is very sneaky. His race in the Wood off a long layoff was sneaky good. At 50-1 I would take a shot and put him in the exotics. He shouldnt have any problem at 10f
I just don’t have it in me to bet the favorite or second choice in the Derby. Even my favorite horse of all time, American Pharoah, who I proclaimed after his Front Runner victory as the best horse I had ever seen, didn’t see any win money from me in the Derby as I bet him only in the exotics.
I am allergic to chalk, you could say. Every other day of the year, every other race I bet, I try to beat chalk. It goes against my very fibre to pick the chalk in a 20 horse Derby field. Can’t do it.
Besides, is there any fun in bragging about the time you had the chalk in the Derby 15 years ago? Not to me.
Between EQ and RYW for grand prize. Both are working well.
No shot. Or zero shot.
; – )
Whichever it might be, result will be the same.
First and second favorites. You’re right. Could be. But I’m thinking more along the lines of first and third favorites…or fourth…or maybe fifth.
See your point.
I think so too, Mike.
Agree completely about betting Derby favorites to win. But second faves can sometimes be had at a decent price (e.g., MaxSec — yes, I know! — and Super Saver in recent years). No denying, though, that favorites have had a good run since Fusaichi Pegasus got them off the schneid.
California Chrome was a prohibotive favorite, and the superfecta paid very well….a 20 horse field can afford a favorite winning, and the vertical wagers paying very well!
Had dinner w/ some of his former owners in Reno last Nov. Also private showing with CC 3 yrs ago.
What did they order?
Seriously? Steak for myself and one individual, chicken or fish, I think for other. Btw, i don’t- like some on another site waste with everyday posting….. actually live it. Some with their posting- live vicariously. Huge difference!
Hello Mike, I hope all is well. I think it is great you had dinner with some of California Chrome’s former owners. I bet a great time.
Hey Paula! Last Nov, 18th, Golden Nugget hotel/Casino. Had dinner with the Coburn’s @ Anthony’s Chophouse. Interesting conversation.
I got to watch Chrome as a 5 year old and his crew…the Sherman men, in their silver Chrome jackets…they stood on the deck of Schwanies, at the gap at Los Al…got to talk with Art many times….he said Chrome was peaking after the San Felipe, they wished the Derby was in April, but they ran in the SA Derby and won the KY Derby and Preakness, were running on fumes in New York….Art said if he only had a couple more weeks!….
Asked several times how Mr. Sherman was doing in past yr. Many “blue blood” horses Chrome left in his wake when racing. lol
Hopportunity scratched making it a 19 horse field. I hit that super and thought I was going to get 15k-20k, but it came back 7,770 for the $1 ticket. That one horse missing makes a difference. 116,000 possible combinations reduced to 93,000.
The fun is getting one of the favorites in the Derby at 31/1….
I’ve come late to the Hot Rod club but everything about the horse says he’s live…I think the LA Derby was the best of the prep races this year, which means I also like O Besos….throw in Rock and Medina and that’s a fine foursome!
This year’s wiseguy horse–that is, the horse that gets bet down from their morning line—is Super Stock….this year’s flying-under-the-radar horse….is Medina Spirit, who’d-a-thunk The White Haired Wizard would be practically forgotten in the race that he has “owned” for such a long time!
Interesting, I see O’Besos as the wise guy horse, seems everyone is talking about him. Agree with Medina Spirit as the forgotten horse, he could pay $30 and everyone will look at that and say, “damn how’d we let Baffert pay that much?”
O Besos is 20-1 morning line,, I don’t see him getting bet down from that number, I like him! I’m expecting he is going to be even higher than 20-1, because he hasn’t won a two turn race yet, and hasn’t won a lot of money yet….his form on paper doesn’t jump out at you…people on this site like him but….I don’t envision he’ll get bet down.
I don’t know about SS being the so-called wise guy horse, but the Arkansas Derby winner will DEFINITELY be bet well below his morning line of 30-1. Battaglia is way off the mark on that one.
You’re welcome…..
Thanks! I still like Rock on top but cannot just toss Hot Rod!
Starrininmydreams and Proxy ran in LA Derby, came back in the Lexington and ran 3rd and 4th.
Steve – after the PP draw, your analysis on Rock Your World puts him in great shape. Dave
Cannot complain. Lol
Big Fan of Steve Asmussen and want to back one of his two horses this weekend. Based off the draw, which horse should I be supporting
Hedge your bets and play both. You’ll get good odds either way.
Good advice!
Superstitious type – Steve’s final week #15 Derby Rankings .. Rock draws 15….the end….:)
Hmmm
Steve’s look at HRC’s final three-sixteenth has me wondering if the 6 weeks off really will knock him off form as I had thought. I’m now leaning toward the optimistic view. Besides, it wasn’t that long ago when racing “experts” thought that 5 weeks was too long.
Nate Silver, the statistician and writer, offered this thought concerning information overload: “The instinctual shortcut that we take when we have ‘too much information’ is to engage with it selectively, picking out the parts we like and ignoring the remainder, making allies with those who have made the same choices and enemies of the rest.”
I think my own engagement style has been the same, and others here may see themselves in Mr. Silver’s description. But really, at this point, I’d rather follow Forrest Gump: “I’m pretty tired. I think I’ll go home now.”
Thoughts anyone on HRC and Brooklyn Strong’s posts?
Don’t know,but like EQ’s post and RYW.
For Known Agenda’s post 1 draw, I see it as a positive. His odds will be slightly higher than if he drew a post perceived as favorable. The one post in the new gate may not be as harmful to its occupant as the old gate. They’re able to place it further out, plus the first stall is left empty if there’s a late scratch–and there often is one. He should be able to settle in midpack. That’s the optimistic view, anyway.
I remember when Lookin at Lucky drew the one hole. It cost him the race mostly because GoGo Gomez didn’t go! He got bumped by Noble’s promise but escaped. The real issue was when the other horses funneling over came down on to the rail. If Gomez had pushed Lucky up the rail after that initial bump he might have missed the fatal bump with Stately Victor who got pushed over by Paddy O’Prado. Ortiz needs to ride him hard to get him up the rail. Doesn’t have to be on or close to the lead but far enough down the line to avoid the crunch of the funneling that always happen.
Yup. That’s how I’d like to see him do it.
Let’s don’t fool ourselves, the 1 post is the death knell. He has zero shot!
I think the value play is MS at 15-1. Johnny V will be going to the lead unless another is hell bent on going. He might be staying longer than most think.
You have it right for the one hole (especially lookin at lucky). Known agenda will be mid pack but where is the key. If he is 4-7 I believe he’s ok, but if he gets shuffled back to 9 -13 I think he has too much to make up
Thanks! He’s done!
No shot! Nada!
What are the odds? Two guys with last name Relva post comments within a minute of each other that KA has no/zero shot.
Guilty as charged.
Is that a disturbing form of crowdsourcing Barry? Yes it is other Barry. Yes it is.
Steve – Rock drew an outside post! Hopefully he will get a clean break like you mentioned. Interesting, EQ is right next to him. Hopefully Rosario can keep him very close to the front, if not in front, based on early fractions. This is were Rosario’s experience should come into play. Your thoughts on his draw?
Thanks!
I liked the draw and we’ll see if Rosario sits right off Essential Quality or outruns him. If he takes back too far he could get hung very wide into the turn.
Thanks Steve, wonder now what the instructions will be from Sadler. May have to send him anyway? Of course there are many factors….Already getting nervous – lol.
From hearing Sadler’s comments this am…he said they may be laying 2nd, possible 3rd…means to me he wants him up on or very near the lead…
Perfect !
I liked that draw as well for RYW, and we got the unbeaten colts right next to each other. Had to chuckle a bit when they announced the post for Hot Rod Charlie. Very enthusiastic in the room. We will see on Saturday but think Rosario will send him straight out and EQ will be the one sitting off his flank. Not underestimating EQ at all. Somebody will end up going wide during the race. Expect a traffic jam near the rail and possibly mid pack. Once they hit the stretch all heart from there. If EQ does win would join an elite group as undefeated and winning the Derby. Don’t think will be placing any win bets on this one and good luck to all.
Thanks Laura… good luck to you also ! Yes I caught the enthusiasm in room when post was announced for Hot Rod also…I had I’ll Have Another to win the derby a few years ago and the trainers compare him to that horse .. his heart … but I don’t need him upsetting Rock ! 🙂 the excitement builds !
RYW will easily be in front of EQ. His massive stride will take a big effort to run him down in stretch.
Well, so much for my little already extremely low-percentage dream of using Bourbonic in an exotic.
He’ll take way back and drop in so draw really doesnt affect him
Well, that’s true. It was going to involve him passing 16 horses in the stretch one way or another. I guess the draw just pointed out my unreasonable optimism (?) to me.
Say goodnight to known agenda; perfect draw for RYW and EQ….MS will go to the lead with HRC and RYW not far behind.
Why? It’s being in the 2 hole now. If he breaks well he’s still got a shot.
Two favorites drawn alongside–I think they will be closer than 2-1/5-1….more like 5/2 and 4-1….
Known Agenda luckily won’t have a brutal 1 post this year, 0 speed in 2-6. Plenty of time to move off the rail and get good stallign trip. Post 7-10 with be interesting to see who is most aggressive of that bunch. EQ and RYW really hit jackpot.
you never know he could get lucky and get a ground saving trip. I do think he’s better outside horses but we’ll see.
I am with you, of course be outside, but all things considered, getting stuck inside, the 5 to his right have 0 speed, so he at least has a chance to get off the rail and help himself in that regard.
We may get to see KA’s Florida Derby move that won him the race., At least he has shown that he can fight his way out.
Just one of those historical things that is hard to overlook. The rail usually means toss. The 2-6 does make it interesting, like you said, but it is hard to imagine him winning the race from there.
Steve,
I hate to overlook details and I think I have, but mostly based off of another horses performance and not Helium’s. When Hidden Stash was left flailing in the Bluegrass, I dismissed Helium. That and he just disappeared. But I watched the Tampa Bay Derby again and immediately dashed to your review and your comments are dead on about this guy. He is coming off an unprecedented layoff, but it worked for him last time. He’s undefeated in sprints and his only two turn race so we know he has tactical speed. In the Tampa Bay Derby he raced at least 4-5 wide around the entire track. I have not seen the trackus figure but he ran farther than 1 1/16th. His running style could not be more well suited for this race. He is relaxed around the first turn and he will be towards the back half. If he uses his tactical speed and closes up the backside like he did in Tampa, he just might be within striking distance to get a piece of the action and his breeding screams classic distance. His running style, so professional, is very impressive and again, so well suited for this race I have to us him underneath.
Did you know that Untreated won a maiden race at the same distance on the TB Derby undercard with a higher speed figure? Just sayin
Well, it wasn’t the same distance, it was shorter and it was against other maidens. Plus, we saw Untreated’s performance in the Bluegrass along side of Hidden Stash and who ran better? So, thanks but that has no bearing on my opinion of Helium.
You are right, the maiden was a mile and 40 yards, 70 yards shorter. I say, close enough. It was still a two turn race on the same card that yielded a higher fig than the TB Derby.
My point is, horses out of the TBD have not run well in their next start and neither did Untreated who ran faster on the day than any horse in the TBD. As my momma said, you are judged by the company you keep.
Well, yes and that is why I originally dismissed him, which is the first thing I mentioned, but read the rest of what I said and what Steve said and watch HOW he runs the Tampa Bay Derby.
I liked to buy a vowel. An e, so that I can use him underneath.
Steve, as we await the impending post position draw, I want to add my thanks to those of your many fans who have enjoyed the journey along the Derby trail this season. You have acted as both scout and savant leading us down paths we might not have ventured to on our own and opening our minds while teaching us the nooks and crannies of handicapping the Derby. We not only were educated by the little known bits of news that you share with us but also entertained by your wit and humor.
Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t tip my hat to the wonderful group of posters that flock to this site to share their thoughts and questions. You attracted a knowledgeable group of horseracing fans who didn’t shy away from poking fun at each other while discussing each weeks prep races and historical significance of Derbys past. Heck, as a bonus, we were even treated with some trivia and bad jokes. LOL Thank you all for your contribution to this forum.
To Steve Haskin, HOF writer, thank you for making us feel like family. God bless you!
Thank you so much, Dewey. That is very kind of you. I agree about our group of posters. They made this a memorable Derby trail
Thanks so much for the past 3.5 months, Steve. You are the gift that keeps on giving and am so happy you’ve found a home here to continue your brilliant career on your terms. I’d be remiss to say I miss those And You’re Off shows with Lenny at BH, and also my Thursday nights are not the same since you aren’t on with Byk anymore. Those segments were my fodder before lights out. Anyway, thanks again, and I just wanted you to know that you’re very much appreciated.
I really appreciate that, thank you so much. I’m so glad everyone had a great time this winter and spring. It’s been a lot of fun. Those shows with Lenny were a blast, but that seems so long ago.
Steve once again you have made the journey exciting and fun filled with anticipation, I am so glad that you continue to write, just extremely well done, and as a writer you just continue to excel and your profession!!! JUST OUTSTANDING!!! Keep an eye out for GALERIO and absolutely BELLA BETTINA!!! My mare and foal are in Kentucky being bred to MacLeans Music!!!
Thank you so much, Dan. I really appreciate it. I will keep and eye out for them and please keep me updated on everything
FYI, here are offshore odds for Derby prior to draw and morning line odds: Interesting HM and KA co-3rd choices…
Winner
Show Less
Essential Quality+225
Rock Your World+500
Highly Motivated+800
Known Agenda+800
Hot Rod Charlie+900
Super Stock+1200
Bourbonic+1400
Medina Spirit+1400
Mandaloun+1600
Dynamic One+2000
Helium+2500
Like The King+2500
Midnight Bourbon+2500
Sainthood+2500
Soup And Sandwich+2500
Keepmeinmind+3300
King Fury+3300
O Besos+3300
Hidden Stash+4000
Brooklyn Strong+5500
Also, there is no horse named “Show Less” in this year’s Derby. That is just my cutting and pasting using my cell phone and not editing! 🙂
LOL. Still a couple of hours to go. He could get in!
For odds at post-time, I think Charlie will be lower, maybe even the third choice. Medina will be lower because of Baffert. O Besos also lower. Higher odds expected for Highly Motivated, Mandaloun, and Keepmeinmind.
very odd…..pace changed alot with the derfections……i think it only helps Hot rod…….couple lengths off pace sounds perfect
So mattress Mac…..plans on betting 2 million on EQ……….to offset his promo….if fav wins you get money back….
How much will this change the odds?….thats alot of money
Last time he bet that much he won
He’s betting AT LEAST 2 million. So maybe it will be 5-8% of the win pool. It will definitely lower EQ’s odds by a half point to a full point. Crazy!
He must be selling and sleeping on one helluva mattress cuz I know I couldn’t sleep if I bet like that.
He flew to Colorado to bet $3.4 million on the Tampa Bay Bucs in the Super Bowl. When the man speaks….
Buy your mattress before Friday. If Mac loses, the losses get amortized into the cost of mattresses in stock on Sat.
Derby Trivia
The last time the top two finishers in the Derby were the favorite and second favorite (in that order and not extending to the 3rd-place finisher) was 2004: Smarty Jones at 4-1 and Lion Heart at 5-1.
The last time the top three finishers in the Derby were the favorite, 2nd choice, and 3rd choice (in that order and not extending to the 4th-place finisher) was 1943: Count Fleet at 2-5, Blue Swords at 9-1, and Slide Rule at 10-1.
QUESTION: When was the last time the top four finishers in the Derby were the favorite, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, and 4th choice (finishing in that order)?
No peeking!
2016 Kentucky Derby
Nyquist
Exaggerator
Gun Runner
Mohaymen
That was fast! And CORRECT!!
Will it happen this year? I say…….No.
Name the trainer with two Derby winners paying more than $50 for a $2 winning ticket.
I will guess Lukas. Charismatic definitely was a big payoff, and I believe Thunder Gulch received little respect at the windows.
You are right !
A bartender walks into a horse stable, and he says….
[Punchline after the Derby]
“where is Kent D?……he hasn’t paid his tab”
Not bad…if it’s close to the truth. 🙂
Thanks Steve love your rankings every year. Will you be doing Oaks/Derby picks this week?
Thanks Doug. I’ll be looking at the Oaks tomorrow and I’ll see if there is anyone I really like. If I do it will be in my handicapping column on Wednesday night. right now I think Malathaat is going to be tough to beat. She is relentless.
Thanks Steve. And for everything this year; what a year. We’ll be glued to the Derby. But the Oaks have a special place in my heart. As do a couple at Saratoga. I hope the Derby is grand, and everyone comes home safe. Possibly more, I hope to be able to go to Saratoga again. 🙂
Steve thanks again for everything here and the past 14 weeks. You have a gift for getting us to think and look at what we got. I do miss those old days, you and Lenny on the backside doing those videos for BH. This has been an up and down year, horses having to pull early on, getting hurt or just need the time off. Baffert was loaded for bear in January and as they were commenting the past week at Churchill or so Medina Spirit not the typical Baffert high dollar horse coming in here.
So on to the post draw tomorrow and hopefully nice dry track. Then again some mud might make it more interesting. Think Pletcher might be one of the few trainers in here besides Baffert to have that Derby belt notch. Hopes and dreams for all of them. General public might not know a darn thing about horse racing but very hard to find somebody that has never heard of the Kentucky Derby. Probably too much to wish for another Triple Crown winner but got to get the first win in.
As for RYW and breaking sharp? Think the post draw will make a difference. He is a pretty big colt. Yes green a bit like so many of them but he gets rolling, kickback or not I think he may turn into that beast. Not sure what Sadler thinks but I at least would prefer him to draw toward the outside. See what happens tomorrow and no haven’t made up my mind yet on how to bet on the Derby. For the Oaks like a couple of 20-1 shots to win.
Thank you very much, Laura. I have to admit I miss the shows with Lenny. We had a blast.
Got some of the books he wrote and some of yours but it was just the highlight I looked forward to when you guys were together doing it. Time marches on though. The one thing I like about what you do is remind us what came before. Haven’t been back home in awhile since the restrictions. The only thing left of the old track at Havre de Grace to remind is a sign near the bridge from US 40 and if not looking for it you won’t see it. The past history does need to be remembered and thank you for doing it. This coming Friday and Saturday history will be made again. Hopes and dreams. Good luck to all of them. Win or lose they made it to the big dance. Only one winner but the rest will regroup and try again. A toast to horse racing! Been around forever. May it stay that way.
Steve
Thanks again for another informational list of contenders and insights . Hope all stays well with you and yours
chris
I appreciate it Chris. Thank you very much.
Brian Zipse picks Hot Rod Charlie to win the Derby in case anyone is interested.
He’s been on Charlie for a while. Brian and I go way back to when he was giving golf lessons and we were Facebook friends. He was so knowledgeable about racing and had such a passion for it I told him one day he should start his own blog. He did and it forever changed his life. He’s a darn good handicapper.
A live horse, but thinking will be EQ or RYW.
He knows who to listen to………….
In the Louisiana Derby, O Besos took the first turn a bit wide, certainly wider than need be and then ran wide for a short distance up the back but did eventually move over. I noticed in both of his works his rider attempts to keep him close to the rail. In his second work the rider is straining on the left rein to bring him closer to the rail. Half way down the lane he gets there and the rider lets up and O Besos picks up steam. Flying past the wire he is at top speed going into the clubhouse turn and this time he takes a nice tight turn. Lesson complete. To bad Calvin isn’t around to ride this guy. Hopefully he lands an inside post. It will certainly help him ride the rail, save ground and set him up to start picking them off in the turn for home. He’ll need to build some momentum in the turn to catch this bunch, they are faster than his LD foes.
Good observations, El.
It’s always good to teach a come from behind horse to run on the rail before the Derby. And hes already shown he’s comfortable down there. If you look at him he’s more of a shifty horse who you can maneuver
Steve & company…I am all-in on O Besos as my come from behind 2nd! My big play this year will be a straight Rock Your World over I Besos exacta!
O.
e is one of my two main longshot picks
Jockeys on OBesos and Midnight Boubon were imploring their charges with the crop. If you watch Rosario only gave Hot Rod a couple of reminders…Hot Rod sitting on a big one
Thanks for continuing to write Steve. I have followed you for years . The time passes quickly and the Tripple Crown races will soon be history but hopefully your Derby Rankings will continue next spring. Best wishes
Thank you very much. Ken I sure hope so.
Just wanted to thank you, Steve, for another excellent season of Derby rankings. It certainly provides something to look forward to every week, every winter/spring. The depth and quality of your analysis are unsurpassed.
And please allow me a brief gripe: I’m probably just being an oldtimer whining for yesteryear, but I can’t believe that the trend towards fewer and fewer starts for Derby prospects is good for the horses, or the game as a whole. I understand it, but it just doesn’t allow horses to develop and mature gradually, nor for fans to develop a strong rooting interest in horses that run so infrequently. I’m just waiting for a multimillion dollar yearling to make his debut in the Derby. I can hear the connections now, “We’ve always been really high on him. We just thought he needed more time as a 2 year old, then, well, we thought why run him prior to the Derby? We don’t want him to bounce!”
I really appreciate that Amy, thank you! And I totally agree with you. We have no idea who these horses are. And contrary to what one poster on here says it is not good for the game and makes our horses today soft. It’s like a parent who is so germ conscious they wont let there child out of their bubble wrap to keep them away from germs. We have an immune system but it needs germs to practice on. Without that practice when a germ does infiltrate, the antibodies dont know what to do with it because theyve had no practice and arent tough enough to combat it. The horses, as long as they are sound, need practice and racing to toughen them up for the many things that can happen to them in a race. Crazy analogy I know.
Talking about nitpicking … I have heard some people saying that Essential Quality has not improved since his 2-year-old races, that he has defeated “nothing” so far and that his last win and workout are clear signals of vulnerability/weakness.
I don’t know what facts and figures those commentators are using but what I see is an Essential Quality getting faster and faster over time. He peaked for his Breeder’s Cup triumph and he seems to be peaking for his Derby date as well. To me this is just the result of a perfectly executed training plan.
Regarding the “not beating much” comment, I will never understand that kind of assessments when you have a clear Champion winning two G1 races, one G2 and one G3 race. In all these Stakes he defeated 2-time G1 winner Jackie’s Warrior, G2 winner and G1 placer Spielberg, brilliant runners like Hot Rod Charlie and a record holder in Highly Motivated. They were no Secretariats or Seattle Slews but those contenders were the best horses in Essential Quality’s particular time and space… moreover, if those challengers were something close to the Stars of the Golden Age, then Essential Quality would not be the Champion…! Would he?
Essential Quality, unlike other well-meant horses, was able to overcome a suicidal pace in the BC Juvenile. The opposite situation was mounted in the Blue Grass; a completely pace-less race with a sole speed horse who could not steal the race due to the versatility and sheer willpower of Essential Quality.
A horse that is above all excuses or hiccups is a blessing for any Jockey.
The son of Tapit is facing his greatest challenge this Saturday while tackling 19 other Derby rivals including a rising star named Rock Your World; the one who will likely thrust forward in the homestretch and might just prove matchless.
What a great gift would be if they could feature another breathtaking rivalry and invigorate Horse Racing in the process.
Nelson, there are still people out there that say Zenyatta was not great, she ‘beat nothing.’ Some people are never happy and that’s their problem.
Thanks for your reply Davids…!
You are right in that is their problem and the problem of the audience who believe those kind of opinions.
It is easy to be hypercritical … I can for instance say that Pletcher’s horses are likely to finish out of the money in the Derby as it happened so many times in the past. It is just a lazy opinion that did not entail analyzing what is different this year for his horses…
“Opinion is the medium between knowledge and ignorance.”
Plato
To many people perfection is a reason to look for flaws. All of it means nothing. Essential Quality couldnt care what anyone says. His actions are all that matters. But when you handicap horses part of it is looking for reasons to beat a favorite so its only natural you look for any flaws you can find. Its not about liking or disliking a horse, its only about handicapping
Duly noted !
Saw her run three times.Some aren’t astute enough to realize how difficult for a horses winning 19 of 20 always coming from behind.
Spot on, Mike and Davids.
Thanks! How are you?
Essential Quality is the only multiple Grade 1 winner as well.
Nelson, great stuff all the time, thanks for the contributions to a great site….
I am an EQ detractor….I do not see it at all to be honest. I do not think he as improved from a 2 year old to a 3 year old. I have said he hasn’t beaten anyone, but was quickly corrected with nobody at this stage has beaten much. I agree nobody has beaten much. Saturday will be the tale of the tape for EQ, where his reputation gets enhanced or severely hurt. If I do play the race, which more than likely I wont, i would not be or recommend playing EQ. He is more workman then brilliant. I love to dream about brilliant horses.
No problem at all Jeff.
You are more than entitled to your opinion. Opinions also make the discussions and conversations more interesting.
We all have our own handicapping models and biases.
As I have written the very first week, I am biased to Godolphin, family 1x, for champions and undefeated horses.
The only challenger I see capable of dethroning the Champ is Rock Your World… but the son of Candy Ride is seen by many as vulnerable favorite as well…
Besides any horse can have a bad day. Holy Bull and Point Give are haunting examples of great horses not firing in the Derby.
Anyways, all the questions we may have will be answered in just 4 days… !
Respectfully Jeff , Essential Quality has beaten everyone!
Every horse he has run against he has beaten.
My only concern & history has a way of repeating itself is that the last Blue Grass Stakes winner that also won the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold in 1991. That is 30 years ago, long time to wait.
Good luck
Up arrow.
Trifecta…Rock Your World….on top of Medina Spirit, Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, O Besos…..on top of all…..costs $36 for a 50 cent trifecta…
Or….same chance $9 exactas with those 4….not sure what pays more maybe the exactas…
Maybe better to shorten it to my original inside/outside theory of Rock being the best speed horse and O Besos being the best late runner, and go with the two!….the less horses the longer the odds BUT the better it pays!
Might as well wait one more day for the post positions to solidify everything.
This has been such a fun read all year, Steve, in part because you’ve been so quick to respond to questions and comments. And we’ve had a lot of really smart, knowledgeable commenters, too. There’s still so much to learn in this fascinating sport, even if you’ve been following it for decades like I have. Thank you for giving all of us so much information, knowledge, and perspective.
I’m not much of a handicapper, but over the weekend I looked through my personal past Derby rankings over the last 7 years. Generally I had the right horses at the top — maybe not in the right order, but close. This year, there are only about 5 or 6 serious contenders and an equal number of non-contenders. That leaves rough six or seven horses who could surprise, at least in the exotics. I predict a formful Derby, like 2018, when three of my top five — my #1, Justify, my #5, Good Magic, and my #4 Audible —finished 1 2 3.
My current top five, in order, is Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Known Agenda, Rock Your World, and Medina Spirit.
I wonder what odds I could get that three of the five finish in the money? Oh wait, there’s a bet for that! Unfortunately, given the $60 cost of a boxed trifecta, that’s not likely to produce a huge payday — in 2018, the $1 trifecta paid about $140.
Which is why I prefer superfectas, although I’ve never hit one, even virtually. I’ve put together about a dozen of these on paper, but none really jumps out at me as the right mix. Since the field has changed so much in just the last two days, I think I will sort the field into groups and play one from each group to come up with a handful of viable ones — sort of like Eddie F.’s pace list, but from a different perspective. Long years of watching long-shots finish second or fourth notwithstanding, I may even play a favorites’ super.
Sounds like youre a pretty darn good handicapper to me. And you know how to bet, going with superfectas. Ggod luck but you sure sound like you know what youre doing to me.
That’s kind of you to say, Steve, but most of my betting takes place on rare weekday outings at Saratoga, when the clubhouse is half empty and I can spend any winnings on $21 glasses of champagne. (I may have to improve — I’m pretty sure they’ll raise the price this year.) I love sitting up there and imaging all the old-time owner breeders dressed to the nines with their binocs. The rafters speak to me.
Churchill is increasing the superfecta to $1 again, unfortunately.
Churchill has to be the worst run business in America. First they ran Calder and Hollywood into the ground, and now they only go with the $1 super. Imagine the growth and interest the $.10 super could attract from casual people who tune into the Derby and want to make a few bets. So so dumb and they just can’t get out of their own way when it comes to growing the sport.
With Caddo River out of derby, it leaves a crap shoot for who sets a realistic pace. This might be a calvary charge down the stretch. Still believe the winner pays $20 +. Should be an exciting derby!!!
I think post positions will help determine who goes to the lead
Steve, in your final Derby ranking of 2021 we cannot thank you enough for the monumental job you have realized during 15 consecutive weeks.
Thanks to the 32 horses caressed by your conversant words every single week we came to know the relevant traits of all Derby hopefuls this year.
Your knowledge and familiarity with the greatest Thoroughbreds of the past is your measuring tape to grade the best prospects every year; and we greatly benefit from your kindness in sharing your rich experience with us.
Your work not only promotes the devotion for the Kentucky Derby but also foments the passion for the Thoroughbreds and the people around them.
I particularly consider myself a student of your craft and I am not shy to say that I want to be like Steve Haskin … a successful and millionaire writer …
… at least in followers!
Wow that really means a lot, Nelson. I cant thank you enough for the kind words. It’s like any labor of love. If you love what youre doing its not a job at all. You and everyone else here have been responsible for any any accolades given, with all your wonderful and informative comments. The most important thing is I hope everyone had fun. It is the four-month journey more than the two-minute destination that is most important
Thought Lava Man looked awesome on the track next to Hot Rod Charlie! 20 years young, but he works still! Carries Doug O’Neill around in the mornings, he better be fit! he’s made this trip before, alongside I’ll Have Another in 2012, I think he was with Nyquist, but don’t know for sure, and he ran in the Invasor/Benardini Classic there—couldn’t keep up with those tough guys but few could….
He was there with Nyquist he’s still a character. When he walks around the shed by himself he’ll stop, open the feed bin, and grab a snack and keep walking. At least he did that the last time I saw him at Churchill Downs
I can’t believe that horse is 20. Looks like he could race today.
I bet you have witnessed a lot of funny and weird things from horses on shed row. They would make for a great article. Especially those stories of horses doing people-like things.
I miss the shedrow much more than the racetrack. I miss the smell of the backstretch and feeling the warmth of a horse’s coat on a cold Kentucky morning. And I miss the sound of the alarm clock at 4:30 and getting ready to head out to the backstretch in total darkness.
LOL, that is funny.
It’s been a treat, Steve! Reading your observations has gotten me all excited about this year’s Derby. Thanks for brightening up what has been a challenging spring for everyone. I’ve learned a lot and am looking forward to reading your handicapping column as well.
I really appreciate that. Thank you so much.
Mr. Haskin, appreciate work here-as well many years on BH.
Soup and Sandwich has impressive pedigree. If he is say 4th after three quarters, do you think he has a chance?
Tough to win with him still being green , although much better than he was, and his aggressiveness in the morning and his inexperience, but I am looking for big improvement from him because of his raw talent and the giant step forward he took in the Florida Derby.
Every morning I watched him he was fighting his rider for the first few minutes. Once he settled down he was ok. Will be watching the post draw again tomorrow morning. See where he ends up. That being said like where the fillies ended up after the draw this morning.
Dear Steve, Thanks for being our pathfinder on another Derby Trail. In 1980 I went to my first derby and found this poem on the Kentucky Derby green sheet. I wonder if you know who the author was. I call it “The Derby Prayer”
My Horse has a chance
If he stays sound throughout the race and
If he is not interfered with and
If the race goes as figured and
If the track is to his liking and
If he doesn’t get to much outside and
If his equipment doesn’t break and
If he doesn’t get boxed in and
If he doesn’t cast a shoe and
If he doesn’t get disqualified and
If the MAN upstairs is with us all the way
I’d say WE HAVE A CHANCE!
I have repeated this for the last 20+ years as they go into the gate It’s lucky for me. I had Genuine Risk back in 1980 HAPPY DERBY
PS I still think Angel smacked her in the Preakness
LOL. So true. I’ve never seen it before and dont know what the Derby Green Sheet is. But its spot on. Didi you know that it was for the 1980 Derby that Dan Fogelberg wrote “Run for the Roses.
The green sheet was put out by the Louisville Daily Sports News. Look up 1980 KY Derby Green Sheet and there is a photo. Its a combo sheet, entries, tout ,clocker ,history and had the lyrics to My Old Kentucky Home. I didn’t know that about Fogelberg great tune. and Risk was a joy to bad she had a lot of problems as a brood mare. So were All Riding high in April. Enjoy the moment Happy Derby
I like to jam out to the jerry Garcia song of the same name. And if this little sidebar turns into a derby playlist, all the better.
He fooled around with my old Kentucky home a little bit on beat it on down the line 6/18/74. Freedom Hall. Fifth track.
Ok, I’ll add. “Dead Flowers” The Rolling Stones.
Derek, thanks for the poem.
April 26: Like I said elsewhere, thank goodness you’re my Derby Scout and especially this year. I really like Rock Your World but worry that his best running style might well be compromised by the cavalry charge at the start and the mob of bodies that the Derby has become. I agree that King Fury is intriguing and I respect the known commodity of individuals like Known Agenda and Essential Quality. This Derby has been a massive head-scratcher for me and so I haven’t left any comments until now. But your analysis from the beginning has made for great reading, as have the comments. Thank you so much for a great and entertaining column, Steve. Whoever gets the roses, they belong first and foremost to you.
Thank you Abigail. As for RYW, as I said he really needs to break sharply. A slow break would hurt him more than the others
I keep reading about Midnight Bourbon’s looks, but Mandaloun looks real good out there, too….working great—draw a line thru his last race and if you like him—he’s going to fetch a big number.
I have not reviewed Mandaloun’s past performances.. Prior to the Risen Star, didn’t he lose as well? If true, would you draw a line in that effort as well?
He lost his first two-turn race, but not badly…then he ran an improved race, winning the Risen Star….then the bad race—so, no–I didn’t draw a line through his 1st loss, and I haven’t decided if I will bet on him—but he strikes a good pose on the track–he’s big, well bred, in good hands….
Mandaloun does look great and is going great. He would be in my top five of horses who are thriving at Churchill Downs
I just watched the arrival video on Rock. The first couple of steps getting out of the trailer were understandably a little weird. Hopefully he shipped ok. He sure let the other horses know he has arrived, with his spirited Neigh ! Lol
Hopefully he draws a good post like you indicated Steve !
You can see that size—he looks older than most of his competition, and he’s looking around…a sign of intelligence!
I agree !
Thank you Steve. Do you think this is the most wide open Derby in quite awhile? My heart wants Midnight Bourbon to win but he just can’t seem to finish. Do you think blinkers would help?
Pretty close, certainly the most confusing
Brooklyn Strong 5f in 1:00 4/5, last eighth in :11 3/5
Well, it sure looks like he’s comfortable on the Churchill strip. Good work. Have they named a jockey yet for Brooklyn Strong?
Sorry. I should have mentioned That was at Parx.
No problem, Steve. A work is a work, of course, of course….. (according to Mr. Ed) LOL We’ll keep an eye out for Brooklyn Strong when he gets to jog at Churchill.
As for his jock, I just found out that Umberto Rispoli has picked up the mount. Some consolation after losing the ride on RYW.
Yes, very odd for a Parx trainer to recruit a little known California rider with no Derby experience
From what I’ve read, Umberto Rispoli is the second coming of Frankie Dettori. Some big shoes to fill.
He’s a toss for me.
If he could have had two races this year, he’d be a major contender.
Hello Steve, Thanks for all you do as the derby trail winds to a conclusion this Saturday. I appreciate your responses and your knowledge and passion is second to none. Hopefully a sunny day and safe trip for all 20 runners this Saturday. I like Known Agenda to pull the mild upset. I am a sucker for FLA Derby winners. I will always remember Always Dreaming’s win as that was my best Derby day ever. Known Agenda should get a good pace to run at and you know his jockey is knowledgeable and at the top of his game like his equine companion. I have O Besos at #5 instead of HRC. The other 3 are the same as yours: RYW,EQ,DO. Would love to see Dynamic One pull the big upset because you know this would blow up the TRI as well as the P4 or P5. Safe trips to all.
Thank you very much, Joe. I appreciate it. I totally agree about Known Agenda. He is my main win bet assuming he is decent odds. God luck with all your bets.
In the category of Best Written Derby Trail Coverage, the winner is…Steve Haskin. Without the judicious Haskin contemplation the Derby would simply be a mess of twenty runners. For me, anyway. It’s been a particularly enjoyable ride this year allowing you hours to forget what is/has been happening around the world as we struggle with the pandemic.
Essential Quality looks the winner and, unless he is given a poison challis in the post position draw, should be able to withhold the challenge of his 19 combatants. Arguably, the real fun is picking who will be placed behind the two year old champion. Again, the post position draw will determine those more likely to fill these positions.
Once again, for the 22nd time, thank you, Steve. Your coverage makes the Derby Trail the hottest ticket in town.
Thats very kind of you, David. I appreciate all your kind words. Best of luck
In an attempt to visualize the Derby pace, I’ve created 4 early-pace groupings from fastest to slowest.
GROUP 1
Hot Rod Charlie
Medina Spirit
Midnight Bourbon
Rock Your World
Soup and Sandwich
GROUP 2
Essential Quality
Helium
Highly Motivated
Mandaloun
Sainthood
GROUP 3
Brooklyn Strong
Dynamic One
Known Agenda
Like the King
Super Stock
GROUP 4
Bourbonic
Hidden Stash
Keepmeinmind
King Fury
O Besos
Group 1 is the most crucial, and what happens with those five runners dictates what happens to the others. Unfortunately, I haven’t a clue.
Eddie F,
Thanks for the grouping. Medina will go to the front and try to control this and then last, right?
It’s certainly possible, Killerfrog. But four of the five in the first group have won a two-turn graded stakes this year on the front end. And the other, S&S, led until the turn for home. In this group, it’s difficult to predict because all of them are capable of leading. And guessing is even more difficult knowing that both horse and rider have a say in where they’ll be positioned early.
Cant argue with that. HM might be in the first group, but I think theyre going to try to take him back.
I agree, Killer. I think Medina is going to flip the script on RYW. Baffert has won four Derbies on or close to the lead.
Methinks prat’s going to have Hot Rod Charlie in the 2nd tier, his (very nice) Saturdat work looks like they wanted to take out some of his early speed on Saturday, Doug has a plan, and he has done quite well with good three year olds in the Derby–in fact, people don’t say this about Doug but he’s a TOP b big-race trainer.
More of a reader than a commentator, but would like to say thanks for a great experience on this site. You and the regulars have made it a fun “Derby Trail.” Followed you from BH. Keep up the great work. Appreciate your insights and sharing of info.
God bless you going forward Steve.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. And thank you for commenting. Feel free to comment any time
Steve, thanks for your part in making Derby Season so much fun! Best time of the year!
So glad you enjoyed it Sally. Thank you very much. It has been fun.
Thank you for another great spring…..5 days to go to figure this all out!
I hope you do so you can change your name to Good Picks By Me.
Hi Steve
I can’t believe how fast the past 15 weeks have gone by. It seems like it was just the other day that we read your first analysis on Derby Rankings: Week 1. Thanks to your weekly rankings, all of us have a better idea how these Derby contenders stack up against each other. With the exception of the Derby draw, most of the pieces have fallen into place, with the cream of this year’s crop rising to the top. The 2021 Derby trail was full of twists and turns, with several promising dropouts along the way. it’s been a great ride just getting to the KD, hopefully it will be free of any mishaps like we saw in the 2019 Derby, with the disqualification of Maximum Security.
Thanks for all you do, Steve. You deserve a big shout out from all your followers, including myself.
Best of luck moving forward.
I really appreciate that, Bill. Thank you. And thank you for all your great contributions and the research you do. The 15 weeks really has flown by.
What a fantastic site, thanks for the relief, Steve, from our daily grind. Always have appreciated you and your excellent writings, thoughts, and insights through the years. Glad I can say that directly to you…
That is very kind of you, Jeff. Thank you
Well said, and I second this Steve. You are always a breath of fresh air from the nutty world around us of late. Thanks for all you do.
Steve: “To show what a weird Derby this is, I am making a huge case for the last three horses to get in the race.”
That says it all.
I have to agree that if the Derby were won by beauty, Midnight Bourbon would win by 10 lengths.
Both of Pletcher’s Derby winners have come during years that seem wide open and chaotic, so I’m not dismissing Dynamic One and Bourbonic.
I suppose I’m stubbornly old-school, so I still favor the horses with more foundation.
I am leaning heavily toward Highly Motivated. I don’t believe he even wants or needs the lead, he just took advantage of a paceless scenario in the Bluegrass. I am having a Funny Cide de javu, when he got headed but Empire Maker in the Wood but got the better trip in the Derby. Same could happen here that HM trips out well. A head separated him from Essential Quality. I’ll take both my chances and get 4-5 times the price.
I see Chad Brown win a ton of turf races from “dead last” to first. Maybe he’ll try that in the Derby, no post position would be a problem.
Chad was 8 for his last 25 starters, as of Saturday. He’s red hot, hitting at 40% clip now.
Hey where did you come from Clowny, havent seen you on ages
Honestly, Steve, I forgot you were over here until about a month ago. Suffering from lockdown brain.
Also, was seriously giving thought to my own little, personal boycott of anything CDI in protest to the eventual shuttering of Arllington, my home track where I was introduced to the game and cut my teeth as a handicapper.
But I went back and read all the Derby Dozens. I value your opinion–especially when it aligns with mine,lol!!
I am on the same wavelength! I plan to use Bourbonic and Dynamic One. I think one of the two of them may give us a derby surprise!
Well, heck! It won’t be a surprise NOW!
Oh yes, it will still be a big surprise! If only bc you and I cash the ticket! lol.
A lot of people were put off by the slow final time (understandably), but the fact that Dynamic One and Bourbonic were able to close into the slow pace encourages me. It’s worth including them in trifectas.
Always liked to bet Oxley and Ward.
Very sad to hear the news. I knew John well and he was such a nice guy.
What a treat to get Steve’s list a day early! Something I keep hearing is (to the effect) we thought the 3-yr old colts were a really strong bunch this year, instead, it looks like they aren’t much. To which I disagree. Only time will tell how accomplished they are as a group, but I think we are going to have a really competitive Derby and I think we may be surprised at who takes the top prize.
Steve –
Thanks for another season of Kentucky Derby discussion. KD 147 should be a great race Saturday. Look forward to your
Derby reporting in 2022. Good luck with your bets.
7.5 Furlongs
Hey Steve, once again you’ve topped you last, best, previous column. HOW did you find out about Keepmeinmind’s 46 1/5 work if it wasn’t videod?
Thanks Mary Ellen. From my Virtual Stable report. I get all works on the horses in my stable
A virtual stable is a new one to me, but you’ve probably had one for years. LOL!
what specifically was historical, incredible and remarkable about Helium in the Tampa Bay derby? thanks
Not historical. He was coming off a long layoff with only two career starts, made an explosive move from 10th to first, looked beaten in the stretch and battled back to win. Only an extraordinary horse can do that. you have to watch the replay.
Steve,
So glad to find your suggestions, and that you are still suggesting! Sainthood does possess that aura that mystifies horse players’ judgement.
Regards from one “Flatlandser” to another.
Uncle Smiley
If you told me I’m sorry but where in Flatlands?
Steve,
Albany Avenue and Avenue J.
I recollect you saying you were more in the direction of Canarsie.
Looking forward to your continued wisdom of the track as guidance.
Best,
Uncle Smiley
Steve, you’ve managed to keep me engaged for yet another long Derby trail. Many thanks! Am I wrong in noticing that the paragraph on RYW is the most cautious of all your final analyses of previous #1s? But that’s the kind of year it’s been. The colt that you believe has stood out from the crowd has raced just three times, and only once on dirt. We’ll see a record number (4) of colts with just 3 career races. There are three horses with just one race this year, which equals the record set in 1995. The most experienced runner this year has 8 career starts, which may be an unprecedented low. Yet with all of that, I’ve somehow found myself even deeper in the weeds than usual. I’m determined to keep it simple on Saturday, maybe simpler than ever before.
I’ve never had a horse No. 1 with only 3 starts and one on dirt. I refused to put Justify No. 1 because of that. Silly me. I still love the horse but you cant be to confident this year. If he draws well I’ll be more confident. If you dont keep it simple this year youre in danger of losing a bundle. It will all come down to Wednesday night’s column
And you have managed to add the levity needed to make this more enjoyable
Thanks. Even though I nearly started WW3 a few days ago. 😉
“Even though I nearly started WW3 a few days ago”
One thing to keep in mind, pro vet likes to stir the pot, stand back and watch the sparks fly.
That said, I would like to take this opportunity to thank pro vet for his unwavering support of Rock Your World, from the get go.
I believe he was the first to point out RYW’s impressive pedigree, by Candy Ride out of an Empire Maker mare, Charm The Maker. He mentioned that Empire Maker has been a better broodmare sire, than as a sire. In addition, I believe he pointed out that RYW shared the same sire as Gun Runner and Shared Belief, with the possibility of turning out to be just as good, or better than those two. I believe pro vet mentioned that RYW could be a carrier of the X-Factor large-heart gene, which is a concept that I firmly believe in. Bottom line, I owe a lot to pro vet for posting all the “positive input” he has provided over the past few months. I’ll be thinking of him when I cash my $100.00 win ticket on RYW, at 31-1, collecting $3,250.00 at the window. In addition, I’ll be cashing my $2.00 exacta with RYW boxed with the entire field. I believe it was pro vet that mentioned O Besos is a live long shot, at 50-1, in Pool 5. If in fact O Besos finishes 2nd to RYW, I collect an additional $4,785.00, or if RYW finishes 2nd to O Besos, I collect a whopping $7,959.00.
At any rate, pro vet deserves a big shout out for the positive comments he’s posted on Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings blog. 🙂
Thank you Steve Haskin. Horsespeed good man. Horsespeed.
Same to you
Steve, thanks for all the time and effort you put in to ranking these horses. I’m with you on Rock Your World and hope he turns out to be something special.
Thanks Dutch, just hope he gets a decent post and decent trip
Steve:
Thank you so much for these weekly columns: Especially coming out of such a crazy 2020, this ‘normal’ dance from BC Juvenile to early 3 year-old prep races, to the final key preps, to the Derby has been very rejuvenating to this old guy! My first big score was 1999 Charismatic, and my first futures win was way back with Sunday Silence ( I had him at 8-1 and was at SA Derby). For my derby trifecta wager; I plan to go deep in 3rd position for sure; not sure about the other spots just yet. Looking forward to pp draw. For this year, I managed to get 8 futures horses into the draw, including King Fury but still would not be at all surprised if I did not cash! I would be plenty disappointed however!
Thanks again for all your insights: I know it has made the road to the Derby a most enjoyable one!
I really appreciate that, thanks so much. Eight futures..that is fantastic. Best of luck
Brooklyn Strong is my loooong shot. Love his pedigree! I read that he sold for $5,000 at auction. What a hoot if a $5,000 colt won the Derby.
Stand to be corrected of course but this is the ninth renewal under the points system. The first four saw the winner come out of the top 5 in points. Those years were followed by the winner not being in the top 5. Could the trend flip back this year?
As I posted on the previous column, sticking with Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie and “The Rock”. to win. Just love everything about Rock Your World from the tip of his nose to the tip of his tail!
Thank you Steve for another great year of “Derby Rankings”. Looking forward to your columns in the future.
You thrill us with your stories from yesteryear and the back stories on the horses and their owners.
Good luck to everyone placing their bets.
Thanks for all your support Lynda. I think Brooklyn Strong could run better than most people think
Has anyone mentioned similarities to 2017? Is Essential Quality Always Dreaming? Who are the Classic Empire, Lookin at Lee, and Battle of Midway in this year’s edition?
I think Always Dreaming was more brilliant and Essential Quality is more proven.
I agree. Story on the 2017 race, I put $80 into the betting machine made my bets keying/using mostly Classic Empire in verticals and horizontal wagers. Got to the last $4, thought, ok I’ll key Always with Lookin at Lee and Battle of Midway in an exacta Box 5/1,11. Great LL gets up it’s like $167. Of course the $1 tri 5/1,11 was $8,000+. Like so many things, stupid and smart at the same time.
Steve, you had me at… “From a pure physical standpoint he is a standout.”
He’s also happens to be the son of my favorite horse ever. I think his Louisiana effort sets him up for a career best here.
#ObesosWasSoLastWeek
Tiznow is surely one of my all-time favorites. Tiz and I are good friends
That made me smile. 🙂
Steve, it makes me happy to think of you enjoying Tizamagician getting his breakthrough graded stakes win last weekend, even as much as does his winning the race.
Still on my Asmussen exacta and Midnight Bourbon’s “new” jockey Mike Smith should help him get to lead.
Hate to see your Derby Dozen end, but I know we’ll be treated to interesting, well written posts in the future. I was touched by your supreme compliment to us, your loyal readers, in saying that this was your best Derby trail. I so enjoy the comments on this blog, have learned a lot, and the chuckles are icing on the cake So, on to the Run for the Roses, and hoping Known Agenda is draped in roses next Saturday! Thanks so much, Steve.
Thanks for all your contributions. Its been a fun trail
I’m glad I found you here, the Derby is not the same without you!
Thank you for all your work!
So glad you found us, Jimmy. Thank you
I have yet to dig through this all Steve, but I had to let everyone know that their is a new sheriff in town. The Kentucky Derby site has video of the horses arriving and you must watch RYW’s reaction when he gets off the trailer. Plus if you haven’t seen this horse yet, you’ll get a good look at what a moose he is. While I won’t claim to be able to talk to horses, I think RYW makes it pretty apparent to everyone in gunshot distance, that there is indeed a new sheriff in town. I think I saw the mic hit the dirt.
I attended the SA Derby, having said I wouldn’t bet Rock with YOUR money—I was on Dream Shake, who was next to Rock in the walking ring…I was next to a friend of the Befferts, who was there to see Medina Spirit, who looked good—Dream Shake looked like he had some growing yet to do, but when I saw Rock Your World i did a double take–he looked like a man amongst boys, he looked like an older horse! Then he ran like it.
If Rock Your World was a stallion in the wild, I’d venture to say he would be the leader of the herd, (Herd Instinct) if you will.
There are many that believe Nyquist had that “Herd Instinct”, with other horses just stepping aside in his presence.
Thats one of the reasons I felt he was special the first time I saw him on TV. Cant wait to see him on the track
I saw his arrival video and he was something to behold. As he cocked his head to and fro checking out the Churchill backside, he enters his new lodgings and lets out a huge winney as if to announce “look lively everyone, the Champ is in the house”. Awesome.
Thanks! Just watched it.
“I’m the king of the world!!!”
Right! That was exactly what you want to see. It was a Muhammad Ali moment. Can’t wait to see him step into the ring.
With all the outs and ins, I’ll admit I’m more confused than ever. Hoping they all come back safe and sound Saturday.
Youre not the only one on both counts
LOVE your comments about o Besos, and also love youe comments on Hidden Stash—we have seen many like him in recent years make the Derby super, even the tri—and for that matter…even the exacta—Lookin at Lee and Commanding Curve didn’t even have as good a record as Hidden Stash—
Can’t wait to pour over this. Want to have plenty of time to digest . Caught a great photo of Lava Man arriving With Hot Rod Charlie. He looks so amazing . He looks like he’d like to give it a try!
Ggod old Lava Man. What a character
Doug calls Lava Man boss—can’t hurt having such a mentor for his Hot Rod….
Lava Man having just as good of a second career as his first. He always looks like he’s ready to go. Like many prime athletes, even in retirement, they are still specimens.
He’s special! Saw him run.
I still like Rock Your World, he’s a beautifully moving colt and if he puts it all together next Saturday, race over. Hotrod Charlie is sitting on a big race too I believe. He always gives a big effort and he’s primed and ready. I got to see Known Agenda work out in person and if Pletcher can figure him out, he might just surprise everyone.
I’m still on Essential Quality, but Rock Your Work was one impressive specimen on arrival.