Derby Rankings: Week 2
The changes you see this week are the result of one thing – confusion. There are no standouts as we know them from past Derby Rankings and we’re all just trying to project who might develop and step up as clear contenders. We all thought we had Saturday’s LeComte Stakes figured out and we almost did, but on the Derby trail always expect 28-1 shots like Call Me Midnight to come along and throw things in disarray. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Jan. 24, 2022 – Week 2
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Run Happy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
It’s safe to say McPeek will never have a better shot at winning the Derby than this year, with four major contenders and the No. 1 ranked horse. He has decided to bypass the lesser point stakes with Smile Happy and probably shoot for 50 points in the Risen Star at the preferred distance of 1 1/8 miles. Then he would return either in the Louisiana or Arkansas Derby. Once again, this colt has all the tools, no flaws, a sensational last-out Thoro-Graph number, and a dynamite female family. His speed figures all reflect a colt moving in the right direction, with his Thoro-Graph figs catapulting from a “7 ½” to a “2,” his Brisnets climbing from an 87 to a 98, and his Beyers from an 82 to a 90. In addition, his Brisnet pace breakdown of 80 (early), 90 (middle), and 102 (late) in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes show a horse who can run fast throughout while getting faster the farther he goes. We still don’t know how far the Run Happys want to go, but if a female family is going to carry a horse classic distances, this is the one. And we have seen sprinters Boundary, Elusive Quality, Lucky Pulpit, and Into Mischief all sire Kentucky Derby winners. Last week, he worked in company with Tiz the Bomb and the two were really cooking down the stretch, going a half in :46 3/5. McPeek did not want a repeat of that, so he worked them separately in company this past weekend, with Smile Happy going a solid five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
It’s time to look at his pedigree, even though his powerful performance in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes, which saw him come home with a super Brisnet late pace figure of 116 after stalking a slow pace, suggests another eighth of a mile will be no problem. And this was only his second career start, and he was stretching out from six furlongs, with his Beyer figs jumping from an 80 to a 90 and his Brisnets from an 88 to a 93. Also his Thoro-Graph numbers went from a “6 ½” to a “4 ½,” which was 1 ½ points faster than the nose winner Mo Donegal. As for his pedigree, while there is nothing that is going to pop out at you, his sire Upstart won or placed in six Grade 1 stakes from a mile to 1 1/8 miles, and Upstart’s two paternal grandsires, A. P. Indy and Touch Gold, both won the Belmont Stakes. On his female side, his dam traces to the great producer Boudoir, from whom came such classic horses as Majestic Prince, Kelso, Graustark, His Majesty, and Bowl of Flowers. Zandon also has Secretariat three times in his pedigree and is inbred on the dam side to the top-class European miler Siberian Express. He had a nice maintenance half-mile breeze in :49 2/5 this past Sunday.
3—Rattle N Roll (Ken McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
McPeek had him run down the lane last week with the intention of having him go in :24 or :25, but the exercise rider was too conservative and he was timed three-eighths in :40 1/5. So McPeek brought him back Saturday and worked him three furlongs in company and he went in a strong :36 flat, actually going a quarter and out an eighth. Right now the target is the Tampa Bay Derby, with the alternative being to wait for the Fountain of Youth, but McPeek would prefer keeping him separated from Tiz the Bomb, who is going the Gulfstream route. Although the Breeders’ Futurity was back in early October, let’s not forget the way he demolished 12 classy opponents with one of the most explosive moves on the turn we saw all year, with his Thoro-Graph figures jumping from a “10 ½” to “3 ½” and his Brisnets from an 82 to a 95. With his early, middle, and late pace figures all in the 90s, it shows a horse who has a high cruising speed from start to finish. Pedigree-wise, his sire, Connect, is a son of Curlin out of a Holy Bull mare who won the Cigar Mile and Pennsylvania Derby. He has a great combination of stamina and speed top and bottom. His second dam is by Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap winner Pleasant Tap, who is by major stamina influence, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony, a son of the Ribot stallion His Majesty. Pleasant Tap’s broodmare sire is another major stamina influence, Belmont winner Stage Door Johnny. Rattle N Roll’s third dam Dance Review produced two Grade 1 winners and is out of Dumfries, a half-sister to the top-class racehorse and champion sire Lyphard and the Vaguely Noble filly Nobiliary, who has the unique distinction of finishing second in the English Derby and then coming to America where she won the Washington D.C. International against a star-studded field. She is the only filly since 1916 to place in the Derby.
4—Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Edwina E, by Square Eddie)
With the Bob Baffert horses hovering somewhere in the Twilight Zone, we really have no way of truly assessing the merits of the other California horses. Will the big dogs who are officially on the Derby trail at this time be barking just as loudly if the Baffert horses remain with their trainer for whatever unforeseeable reason or if they are turned over to one or more of the other top local trainers and can finally embark on the Derby trail? Or more likely, what if they are sent to one or more of the powerhouse stable back east? None of that will matter to Doug O’Neill, whose only thought right now is to make sure Slow Down Andy shows no signs of slowing down and that his upset victory over the heavily favored Baffert colt Messier in the Los Al Futurity was no fluke. Can O’Neill win his third Kentucky Derby for owner Paul Reddam, this time with a Cal-bred by Reddam’s 2016 Derby winner Nyquist? As we’ve mentioned, this colt has won despite being green, lugging in and gawking at the grandstand. Blinkers seem to have helped in the morning, and despite never having run in open company, he did get an excellent 101 Brisnet speed figure in the Los Al Futurity and a decent “5” Thoro-Gaph number. So all signs point to him being legit. How good legit is will be determined in his next start, which O’Neill now says could be the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn next weekend. First he has to talk it over with Reddam.
5—Giant Game (Dale Romans, Giant’s Causeway – Game For More, by More Than Ready)
If you’re looking for a razor-sharp horse who is sitting on a big race, his last four works have been a half in :47 3/5, followed by three five-furlong works in :58 4/5, :59 4/5, and :59 3/5 as he prepares for his 3-year-old debut in either the Holy Bull Stakes February 5 or the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay the week after. His speed figures have improved dramatically and he should only get better the farther he goes. I love that he has one of the great classic stallions, Hail to Reason, three times in his pedigree, twice through his son Halo and once through his son Roberto, both major classic influences. Halo, of course, sired Kentucky Derby winners Sunday Silence and Sunny’s Halo. Hail to Reason sired six champions as well as Kentucky Derby winner Proud Clarion, Preakness winner Personality, Belmont winner Hail to All, English Derby winner Roberto, and Travers winner Bold Reason, the broodmare sire of the great stallion Sadler’s Wells, who was the champion sire in the United Kingdom 14 times, including 13 in a row, and sired an amazing 323 stakes winners. As if that isn’t enough of a pedigree, Giant Game’s second dam is by Sea Hero, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Travers, and his fourth dam is by Honest Pleasure, who set a new track record in the Travers.
6—Tiz the Bomb (Ken McPeek, Hit It a Bomb – Tiz the Key, by Tiznow)
McPeek is extremely high on him, saying he is “so talented,” and is confident that he will handle the dirt just as well as the grass and firmly believes he will run on anything. He sure has been working lights out on the dirt at Gulfstream just as he did last fall in Kentucky. McPeek added that the colt just landed on the turf because the schedule fit and he wanted to keep him separated from his other top 2-year-olds. He definitely will be McPeek’s big horse at Gulfstream, aiming for the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth, and Florida Derby, assuming all goes well. I’m not sure Gulfstream will suit his running style, but we still have to see what his running style is on dirt. As we stated last week, he has a ton of dirt horses in his pedigree, and he sure has an explosive stretch run, so just maybe he could be the McPeek horse to get down on now. But go to Vegas because he’s getting bet like crazy in the Future Wager. Let’s not forget he did break his maiden in an off-the-turf race by 14 ¼ lengths at Ellis Park, in which he led every step of the way, so there is still a lot to learn about him. Last week when he worked a swift :46 3/5 half in company with Smile Happy, he might have been going a little better of the two coming to the wire. This week McPeek had them work separately in company and he went his five furlongs in 1:01 1/5, a tick faster than Smile Happy. I cannot imagine this colt not excelling on dirt. He sure loves it in the morning and romped over it at Ellis Park last year. The Future Wager bettors apparently feel the same way, making him second choice at 9-1 behind Smile Happy.
7—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Calingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
His Brisnet late pace figure of 117 in the Remsen Stakes is the fastest of any 3-year-old, but it must be added that his early and middle pace figures of 59 and 66 were very slow, so that race set up for a strong closing figure. He is the type of horse I would love see come back in a sprint just as a sharpener, but that’s not going to happen, so he will continue with his gradual progression, with a Brisnet figures of 82 to 91 to 93 and Beyers of 72 to 82 to 90. So we’re not talking real fast, but steady. Pletcher has given him three straight five-furlong works, with each one getting slower. Remember, his Thoro-Graph number in his Remsen victory was 1 ½ points slower than runner-up Zandon, who many felt should have been put up on a disqualification. So, while we really don’t know how good this colt is and how much faster he can get, he is steady and he runs hard in the stretch. His sire Uncle Mo, grandsire Indian Charlie, and great-grandsire In Excess were all horses who had good natural speed and could carry it a distance. His dam showed good sprinting speed in her brief career and his second dam Island Sand won major stakes from a mile to 1 ¼ miles. He is a horse with plenty of bottom, is a determined stretch runner, and we’ll just have to see what kind of transition he’s made from 2 to 3.
8—Pappacap (Mark Casse, Gun Runner – Pappascat, by Scat Daddy)
We’re still waiting for that one breakout performance that establishes him as a serious Derby contender, but as well as he ran in the LeComte Stakes in his 3-year-old debut, he keeps running the same race and keeps coming up short. You can’t say he doesn’t try hard, but since his victory in the Best Pal Stakes, he’s been beaten in four straight stakes, running fourth in the Del Mar Futurity, second in the American Pharoah Stakes, second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and now third in the LeComte, and each time he lacked the stretch kick to catch the leader. In the LeComte, he saved ground all the way in fifth and moved up along the inside turning for home to challenge the front-running Epicenter, who had set too fast a pace, based on the other 1 1/16-mile races on the card. But he still couldn’t get by him, with both getting nailed in the final stride by 28-1 shot Call Me Midnight who took advantage of the fast early fractions and slow closing fractions. Although the first four finishers ran well and no doubt are good horses, we still don’t know what to make of any of them. Pappacap does have plenty of stamina, especially at the very top and bottom of his pedigree, so he could still prove to be a major Derby contender when the distances get longer, but he just needs to land a knockout punch in the stretch and break this losing streak.
9—Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Smitten, by Tapit)
He returned to Pletcher’s barn this past week, so it’s just a matter of time before we see him on the work tab. On one hand he has plenty of bottom, is tested in Grade 1 company, and has shown he can run with the best of them. On the other hand he is still a maiden, so Pletcher will have to decide whether to take a huge step backwards and try to break his maiden or just keep him in top company looking for Derby points. While it’s good to give a horse confidence by actually winning a race, why take a chance he could run into a tiger and you’re back where you started and with a wasted race with no points. If you aim for the Fountain of Youth Stakes or a stakes at Tampa Bay and he shows he’s still the same horse who ran a strong second to the brilliant Jack Christopher in the Champagne Stakes off a second in a maiden race, then it’s time to forget he’s a maiden. His connections certainly forgot it when they decided to run him in the Champagne. And even being a maiden, of the 23 horses listed in the Derby Future Wager he has the highest Prime Power rating by Brisnet. Prime Power combines many factors into one potent figure. BRIS Speed, Class, Pace, form, weight, distance and more are all combined by a sophisticated computer algorithm into the Prime Power rating. Using dozens of qualitative handicapping factors, Prime Power basically measures the quality of each horse’s most recent starts and consolidates them into a single rating. I know I lost you, but I’m just throwing it out there for you because it’s in the PPs. Also, he has the steadiest Brisnet progression, running a 92, then 94, then 96, which is a stark contrast to the Beyer figures, which had him plummet from a 96 in the Champagne to an 82 in the BC Juvenile. The Thoro-Graph figures for those two races basically stayed the same at a “5,”so choose your weapon.
10—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
We’re going to have to start taking this colt seriously after his stunning victory in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, which he won by four lengths in a swift 1:35 flat for the mile. What was most impressive was his huge improvement from a “14” Thoro-Graph figure to a “2 ½,” and his powerful Brisnet pace figures of 95 (early), 101 (middle), and 95 (late) and final speed rating of 99. To show that was no fluke, when he broke his maiden, winning by almost 17 lengths in 1:09 4/5, his pace figures were 93, 101, and 95, with a 103 final speed rating. These are spectacular numbers for a young horse, who runs fast from start to finish. In his last work, he went six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 under Javier Castellano, with DRF’s Mike Welsch getting his last quarter in :23 4/5 and a one-mile gallop-out in 1:38 4/5. He keeps his head low and has great extension and a fluid stride. If you’re puzzled by his third-place finish in a six-furlong allowance race, beaten 5 ¼ lengths at 1-5 two starts back, he reared in the gate at the break and split his head open, requiring well over 20 staples to close the wound. He still ran through it. This colt has always been tough as nails, very competitive, and loaded with talent. A month after getting him, Sano, who trained the top-class Gunnevera several years ago, told owner Tami Bobo, “You finally sent me my Derby horse. Do not sell this colt; trust me, this is a Derby horse.” Bobo said she is considering giving him two months off and waiting for the Florida Derby, which would not be your typical plan of attack, especially with a horse who hasn’t been two turns, but perhaps that monster Thoro-Graph leap spelled major bounce and peaking way too early and it was best for the horse to give him time to recover off that effort.
11—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
He was no match for McPeek’s pair in the Breeders’ Futurity and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and he is another without a preferred weapon to knock off the top horses. Does he want to be on the lead, as he was in the Breeders’ Futurity or sit back in fourth, two lengths off the pace, as he did in the Kentucky Jockey Club? It didn’t matter because Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy ran right by him in the stretch and pulled away. He ranks fifth in Brisnet’s Prime Power rating, so he is still a horse with a lot of upside, and with only three career starts he still has time to figure out who he is. He’s had some solid five-furlong works at Palm Meadows and should come out running. It doesn’t look as if he’ll have any problem stretching out in distance, but like so many others on the Derby trail so far he hasn’t done anything to “wow” you. But if you’re looking for a horse to put in your exotics, you can at least depend on him to be fighting to the wire. It all depends on who he’s fighting with. Right now he looks to be a notch or two below the best.
12— Chasing Time (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Race Hunter, by Dixie Union)
It was estimated that 55 of the 3,220 My Racehorse shareholders crammed into Oaklawn Park’s winner’s circle after his impressive 7 ¾-length romp in a one-mile allowance race. Even Joel Rosario, coming back from an injury, was impressed. “I was excited after the race and then to see so many people in there cheering – it was very emotional for me and very good to see that,” he said. “It was unbelievable.” If Chasing Time continues his winning ways, to quote the great Al Jolson, “You ain’t see nuthin’ yet.” After remaining stagnant in his Thoro-Graph numbers with a mediocre “8 ½,” “7 ½,” and “8,” showing no improvement, he jumped to a “4” in his last start and is now in position to be competitive with good stakes horses. His Beyer progression has been more gradual, going from a 72 to a 74 to a 77 to an 81, meaning he needs to keep getting faster to handle quality stakes horses. It all depends which figures you like to use. None of that matters to his My Racehorse mass following, who no doubt helped bet him down to 16-1 in the Future Wager. The way he ran last time he may be worth it.
13—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
If you want to give him an excuse in the LeComte Stakes, it was simply that he went too fast early. In the Louisiana Stakes, with Midnight Bourbon setting the pace, they went the half in :48 1/5, and in the Silverbulletday Stakes, they went the half in :48 3/5. In the three other 3-year-old races on the card at 1 1/16 miles they went in :48, :48 1/5, aand :48 2/5. Although Epicenter was alone on the lead he still went his half in :47 flat and slowed down quite a bit in the stretch. The positive take is that he gamely dug in and fought off the challenge of Pappacap, only to get nosed right on the wire by the late-closing Call Me Midnight. The negative take is that he has been on the lead or fighting for the lead in all four of his races, at seven furlongs, a mile, and 1 1/16 miles, and that is not what you want to see in a Derby horse unless you’re convinced he can shut it off if he has to. If he can show he is able to sit off the pace and come home strongly, then you have to consider him a horse to take seriously by the time we get to the first Saturday in May. So he is another horse on whom we have to take a wait and see approach. There is no doubt the talent is there and distance should not be a problem. It’s all up to him to harness some of that speed.
14—God of Love (Mark Casse, Cupid – No Wonder, by Three Wonders)
We will know a lot more about him when he makes his U.S. debut in the 1 1/8 miles Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, February 5. Casse is always the optimistic type, but I sense he really likes this colt and is looking forward to running him on dirt for the first time and showing off that same powerful closing kick he showed on Tapeta and grass in Canada, where he looks to be a sure thing to be voted champion 2-year-old. Casse also loves pointing out his “4 ½” Thoro-Graph figure in his last start, the Grey Stakes, as you normally don’t see figures that fast on synthetic surfaces. We don’t know too much yet about his sire Cupid, who did win the 10-furlong Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita, as well as three Grade 2 stakes at 3. But his dam was a nondescript sprinter who won four of 31 starts and is by an unheralded son of Storm Cat named Thee Wonders, who won four of 30 starts, including the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park. The bottom half of his female family is pretty underwhelming, so he is going to have to rely mainly on his talent and liking the dirt to become a leading Derby contender. He sure doesn’t run like a horse with distance limitations, but a lot of questions will be answered on February 5.
15—Call Me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux, Midnight Lute – Overseen, by First Defence)
If you cross off his 10th-place finish in a maiden sprint in his second career start when he went to the front and got cooked in a speed duel by a suicidal pace, which we now know is not his style of running, and if you cross out his seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at 48-1 when he bobbled a bit coming out of the 11-post, was very wide the entire race, and did make a nice run on the turn to get to within four lengths of the leaders, then you could have made a longshot case for him in the LeComte. This time he took advantage of a fast pace and a battle up front between the two favorites, and slow closing fractions, and was able to come flying late to stick his nose in font right on the wire. I’m not so sure he will ever beat Epicenter and Pappacap again, but this was his day and he took advantage of it. And horses do improve this time of year. His Thoro-Graph figures were pretty pedestrian going into the LeComte, but he at least came off three slow figures and improved them, going from an “11” to a “7 ¾” in the Kentucky Jockey Cub Stakes. His 88 Beyer speed figure in the LeComte was not in the same stratosphere as Mandaloun’s 106 in the Louisiana Stakes, but it was solid enough to build on.
16—Major General (Todd Pletcher, Constitution – No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo)
I have to put someone here, so why not a horse who is undefeated in two starts and won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes? He has been out since then, but is back on the work tab, with a three-furlong and four-breeze and has to be considered a potential Derby horse until someone beats him. I have no idea how good this colt is, but he does have the pedigree, he looks to be a battler, and down this far in the rankings I can say the same about the others. Who knows how good they are? He is by a Florida Derby winner who has sired the top-class Tiz the Law, and his second dam is by the good stamina influence Lemon Drop Kid, winner of the Belmont Stakes and Travers. He’s probably several weeks from a race and likely will be off the Rankings by then, but for now we have to at least keep an eye on him.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
BAFFERT BULLETIN – So, will Bob Baffert’s refugees at some point be given their green card so they can live and work as productive citizens on the Derby trail? Will they be taken away from their ostracized guardian and teacher and be sent to another home to prepare for the arduous journey to Kentucky while finally being allowed to earn enough wages to pay their way? That’s what we’re all waiting to find out. In the meantime, as Baffert fights the system, he must continue to mentor his pupils as he would any other year. At some point, if Baffert is not granted a pardon, The “Wolf” Pack and its “Kumin” Resources will have to make a decision, and make it quickly, or forfeit points that could prove valuable in the months to come. Ironically, despite several late developers, this could tur out to be one of Baffert’s deepest and most talented group of 3-year-olds, even with Corniche on the missing horses list.
With that said, here is what the Baffert Brigade has been up to. The most impressive one we’ve seen so far is DOPPELGANGER, whose one and only start was eye catching, as he got slammed into from the inside post, dropped back to fifth, then found a seam and merely cruised home the rest of the way to win by 3 ½ lengths in a swift 1:09 1/5 for the six furlongs without even the slightest bit of urging. His stride is smooth as silk and he could not have run any straighter down the stretch. He’s been working brilliantly since, but that race was back on December 11 and he has an awful lot of catching up to do if he’s going to be able to get three more starts in; and a lot of that catching up might very well have to be done in a new barn and with a new trainer. The only races for him in California are the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 5, and more likely the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes next weekend, and we’ll have to see what his status is then. If he is as good as he looks he should have no trouble getting in the Derby, with a 50-point race and a 100-race to follow. There isn’t much more to say about him until we know what’s going on.
The same goes for impressive first-out winner WHARTON, who romped by 5 ¼ lengths, and the more proven MESSIER, both of whom who we’ll go into in more detail next week. But I can see a huge bounce back race from Messier, who should settle a little better with that Los Al Futurity under his belt. He is extremely gifted. Another talented colt, the undefeated Sham Stakes winner NEWGRANGE, looks to have a lot of ability and a bright future, and ARMEGNAC, who was soundly defeated by Wharton first time out, came back and won this past Friday going two turns, but they came home in slow time, so I’m not sure what to make of him. As for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner CORNICHE, owned by Speedway Stables, he has not worked since that race, so until he does there are doubts about him that so far have not been dispelled. There are other Baffert horses who have shown ability that we’ll discuss in the coming weeks. This just goes to show the depth of talent in the barn. Right now that doesn’t mean a thing in terms of the Derby. If and when that will change we should find out soon enough.
Two horses who were left off the rankings – OVIATT CLASS and WHITE ABARRIO – were done so only because, as of Sunday, they have not worked in a while, and missed works are always a red flag until we know the reason why or they show up again on the work tab. Once they do they certainly will be ranked, having proven themselves against the best in major stakes.
I have been very high on the Pletcher-trained EMMANUEL, who would be ranked had he run in that Tampa Bay allowance race, which he likely would have won with no problem. However, he had to scratch because of a fever, but following his bullet half-mile work in :47 4/5 this past weekend, it shouldn’t be long before we see him back in the entries. He still has to prove he wants to go classic distances, but his maiden victory was as impressive as it gets.
As for last Saturday’s two-turn races at Fair Grounds, all the winners – GUNFIGHTER (Brad Cox), PIONEER OF MEDINA (Todd Pletcher), and PEACEFUL WATERS (Al Stall) — all looked good, with the last two winning wire-to-wire, but none of them stood out and made you take notice. And FEROCIOUSLY ran well first time out in a six-furlong maiden race. However, I will be watching three of the runners-up. I’ve been a fan of KEVIN’S FOLLY since his maiden victory first time out at Saratoga. He hadn’t lived up to expectations, running mostly dull races, but with blinkers added he showed new life, making a strong run on the turn and bearing down on the leader, but couldn’t catch him, while still striding out well at the wire, suggesting there may b better things to come. The horse who has me excited and is a huge longshot to make the Derby, still being a maiden, is PIONEERING SPIRIT, who has never had a trouble-free race. If this colt can ever get a decent trip there’s no telling how good he can be. It’s just too bad he couldn’t get this maiden victory out of the way and move on to better things. I thought he had a shot in the stretch even with a very wide trip until a horse way on the inside came out four or five paths and nearly made contact with him, causing him to jump back to his left lead, losing some momentum. Once he switched back to right lead after about six strides he kicked into another gear and made up about 4 lengths in the final furlong cutting the winner’s margin from five lengths at the eighth pole to 1 ½ lengths at the wire. I don’t know if he has time to get back on track to make a run at the Derby, but I think he’s eventually going to turn out to be a good horse. The third horse to watch is the $1.5 million yearling VINCO, who had a horrible break from the rail, dropped back to last, a dozen lengths off the pace, and was hopelessly out of it at the top of the stretch. But he came flying down the stretch, going between horses and having to cut across the track to get to the inside, and then charged home to get second. He is way behind as far as the Derby goes, but watch him down the road.
With two works at three furlongs, one at a half-mile, and now one at five furlongs, look for HIGH OAK to make an appearance on the Rankings very soon. His Brisnet pace figures of 94, 101, and 92, and a speed rating of 97 in his Saratoga Special romp stamped him as an exceptional colt before an injury in the Hopeful sent him to the sidelines. But he is back and looks almost ready to get back in action. By the way, if you want to know who picked him out at the sale and bought him for Lee Einsidler, it was Kenny McPeek, who is all over the Derby trail this year.
The tales of JOE continued at Laurel on Sunday when Maryland’s new favorite horse extended his winning streak to three with a workmanlike performance in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race, in which he had to do a little broken field running, going outside, inside, and between horses before drawing off to a 2 1/2-length victory at odds of 2-5. Jockey Victor Carrasco tried to get him to change leads in the stretch, but the son of Declaration of War was stuck on his left lead and showed no inclination to switch. I doubt the Derby is in his plans, but you never know, as trainer Mike Trombetta likes to take shots once in a while.
>Yes; I was just wondering if you were keeping baffert’s horses off of this because of the ‘no derby points situation’ with his horses.
After Simplification’s owner, Tami Bobo stated, “she is considering giving him two months off and waiting for the Florida Derby”, Bobo must have had a change of heart. Simplification is listed as a probable in next Saturday’s Holy Bull stakes.
Simplification’s MMM Stakes win was quite impressive, going 1 mile in 1:35 flat, which would make the Holy Bull the next logical step forward on the Derby trail. I suspect the trainer, Antonio Sano, might have done a little arm twisting to convince Bobo not to wait two months for the Florida Derby, and use the Holy Bull just to see how he stacks up against other winners on the Derby trail.
Hopefully, Javier Castellano retains the mount aboard Simplification.
This is great news, IMO.
Prediction for Derby Rankings: Week 3. Emmanuel graduates from the KOTD segment, to land somewhere in the top 16.
Based on what Steve wrote in KOTD, Manny’s a lock for the top 16.
I’ll bet on THAT! Ha ha ha! And I’m not a bettor. Mr. Pletcher will find the right spot for him. I hope he goes for the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. That way I can see that beautiful colt run in person.
You are right there Bill…!
I am also curious to learn what Steve is writing about Forbidden Kingdom …!
Yes indeed, Forbidden Kingdom is one fast colt, which is something you might expect with a Dosage Index of 9.00.
Yes, I know, Dosage Profiles are no longer in vogue, but why else would Thoroughbred Database, Pedigree Online continue to list those profile numbers if they were not of significance? Even though the San Vicente Stakes is not a Derby prep race, I suspect Mr. Haskin will have plenty say about Forbidden Kingdom after setting those torrid fractions and final time in the race. One would think that Richard Mandella will point FK to the Robert Lewis for his next start.
Correction, I didn’t realize the Robert B. Lewis was coming up so soon, (Feb. 5th), so that would be fast a turnaround. The San Felipe Stakes would make more sense, (Mar. 5th) and it’s a 50 point race.
Very interesting pedigree. Names I do not usually see.
IMHO beautiful effort by Emmanuel. Smooth, long ground eating strides under what appeared to be hand ride the entire race. Very high on this colt!
That was a kind of performance you see maybe once or twice a year…if you watch THOUSANDS of races! After stumbling out of the gate, Contreras didn’t rush the horse in an effort to make contact with the field. As Bruce noted, the announcer called Ethereal Road as he was passing the last couple of horses at the back. An equally incredible race call. ER, after all he did to get to contention in the stretch, still had so much left that he went the final 1/16th in about 5 4/5 sec.
Sorry! I meant this as a reply to Point Unforgiven’s post about Ethereal Road.
It’s nice to see the positive relationship between D Wayne Lukas and Luis Contreras, the two time champion Jockey in Canada.
The Jockey did well with Lukas’ Bravazo in the Derby and Preakness…
It would be great to see Lukas with a horse at the Derby. How many trainers have had Derby runners in a span of over 40 years? (His first was in 1981.)
RE: Tampa Bay Downs, Race #6, 75K AOC, 1 mile 40 yds.
Todd Pletcher’s Emmanuel, by More Than Ready, out of a Hard Spun mare is entered in referenced race set to go off in about 45 minutes. If he can replicate his maiden performance, he’ll make short work of this field, and go on to compete in a Derby prep race down the road.
Emmanuel toyed with this field, hitting another gear in the stretch run, drawing off by 5 lengths. Now, it’s upward and onward.
“toyed” is exactly right Bill!! Glider looked like he was going to give Emmanuel a run, then Emmanuel just took off!
Yes indeed Bruce, Pletcher has a legitimate Derby contender in his barn. Will he point Emmanuel to the Tampa Bay Derby, or the FOY at GP? Time will tell.
Morales to Gallardo on Glider when the latter made a bid: “That’s all ya got? Adios amigo!” Now that’s the way a 30 cents to a dollar horse is supposed to win. Whether it’s the TB Derby or the FOY, he’ll have some quality competition.
Hey EddieF,
“Whether it’s the TB Derby or the FOY, he’ll have some quality competition”, I must say, your ability to state the obvious, is absolutely amazing. 🙂
LOL. I meant that to mean he DIDN’T have competition in this one. Next, he’ll be stepping up from Class A ball to the majors. 🙂
Thanks for the reminder Bill …!
I was basically a paid workout for Emmanuel.
25.03 49.88 1: 13.80 1:37.98 1:40.24 to complete the 1 mile and 4o yards.
Looks More than Ready to take up Stakes company
*It
Exactly. A paid workout is a good description of Emmanuels performance. The fractions and final time are indicative of a “paid workout”, the jockey was in full control throughout the race. I’m wondering if Pletcher will stick with Pablo Morales,in his next start, or back to Luis Saez who rode Emmanuel in his maiden win at GP.
Thanks for posting those fractions and final time, Nelson.
Pablo Morales is having an outstanding run at Tampa (23% winning rate)… but I put my bet on Luis Saez going forward… he is the “go to” jockey for Pletcher.
But the leading Jockey may have to decide between Emmanuel and Charge It …
You can add My Prankster to the mix. Saez was aboard My Prankster in 3 of 4 starts and appears to be another Pletcher contender on the Derby trail. I’ve got $50.00 to win My Prankster in a Derby Futures wager at 95-1 and $50.00 on Emmanuel at 75-1.
On a side note, just watched the Bengals comeback from 18 down, to beat the Chiefs in overtime. Very impressive.
My Prankster is listed as a probable in the 7 furlong, G3 Swale Stakes on Saturday, 2-5, at GP. In his last race, a 75K AOC, at GP, he burned up the track going 6 furlongs in 1:09.02, setting just off the pace which was torrid (21.96, 44.58, 56.56). There are no Derby points in the Swale, but I’m thinking Pletcher wants to keep him in good form for a likely start in the FOY. My Prankster is by hot sire, Into Mischief, out of a Flower Alley mare, with a substantial amount of stamina on his dam side to compliment his impressive tactical speed. Hopefully, Luis Saez will remain aboard this impressive colt.
D. Wayne Lukas had not just one, but two tour de force performances at Oaklawn yesterday. His 3-year-old Arrogate filly, Secret Oath, trounced her five rivals in the Martha Washington Stakes. That was merely a warmup for what happened in the finale (race 11), a 1 1/16 mile maiden special weight. Only Steve can do justice in trying to describe what Ethereal Road pulled off. See for yourself!
“He’s running by horses like they are tied to a post”- Tom Hammond.
That works.
Wow, that was impressive! Great call by Vic Stauffer, he saw him coming on the far turn. Would be cool to see Lukas at the Derby and Oaks again!
Thanks for pointing this one out PU!!
This morning, (Sat. 1-29), Rattle N Roll worked 3 furlongs, in 35.67, 2/10, at GP. Currently listed at #3 on Steve’s Derby Rankings: Week 2, RNR could be pointed to the Tampa Bay Derby, or the FOY, per SH. RNR appears to be completely recovered from his hoof issues. The way he closed in the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity was the most impressive win by a 2yr. old colt, last year, IMO.
Hello Steve – I see that Zandon posted a 4F workout today at Payson Park 1-29, so is his healthy and will surely be targeting an upcoming prep. I was worried about him yesterday because his name was not mentioned by Marty McGee in a DRF article about the Holy Bull. Good news is Zandon is doing well and my worries about him we’re fortunately a false alarm .
Pointing for the Risen Star.
Happy Boy Rocket (by Runhappy) won nicely in his second start and first around two turns. He stalked a slow pace and finished well. Next up the Holy Bull Stakes? Tampa Bay Derby?
Correction : FOY, not Holy Bull
I put up a win/place wager on Ben Diesel, #1–at 10-1 ML….he just might not be fast enough–but I noted his far outside draws, perhaps he was rushed too early for position, and today has the rail—Mr Court is an excellent rail rider…I’m not all that confident he’s good enough, but think at that price I’ll try him!
UPDATE! I think Ben Diesel tokk a hard bump by the wandering Kabob, at the 1/8 pole, but it only might have cost Ben 2nd, New grange ran well in the stretch, just like last time on the Sham….straightens out and kicks clear—Forbidden Kingdom looked good, he had been working very well…beat three of Bob’s, actually Forbidden was also in Bob’s stable, one of the Spendthrifts that was removed last Spring.
PS GREAT name for a horse “Wandering Kabob”!
In the Southwest, the same 1-2 result as the Smarty Jones? Or in reverse order? My bet is a TWO-horse exacta box: Barber Road and Dash Attack, with possible win/place bets on one or both depending on odds. It will be interesting to see how low the odds go on Newgrange. Even money?
How so?
It’s unlikely the pace will be 23 & 46. The final quarter of the SJ was 27.10. A pace meltdown for sure. The pace scenarios will be totally different. I am of the opinion that the SW will be completed in 1:44 plus and there are 3 or 4 entrants capable of recording such a time.
I expect the 5th place finisher from the SJ to run an improved race. The last out MSW winner Call Me Jamal will have to be sent for post 11. He has the tactical speed to clear the field without using much energy. As a May foal and with 6 weeks of additional development between starts, he could be tough to reel in if he enters the lane with the lead.
Most times pedigree is meaningless. However, Call Me Jamal has KD & Belmont winner Thunder Gulch as dam sire and the rarely seen Preakness and Belmont winner, Risen Star as 2nd dam sire. This gelding has excellent speed and I have a funny feeling he has the stamina to carry same.
Good Luck with your wagers.
How so? Just guessing, CF. Same as you.
Call Me Jamal is a May 18th foal.
This colt 3 career starts have been approximately 21days apart. He will enter the SW with approximately 6 weeks between starts. As a May foal he must have gained a lot from his starts in quick succession for a May foal. He displayed excellent speed in his first 2 starts but weaken late. In his first attempt at routing the fractions and final time he recorded under comparable track conditions makes for interesting comparisons. See Below:
OK Park 8 1/2F MSW -(Muddy/Sealed) – 23.18; 47.78;1:13.15; 1:39.19; 1:45.90 -Call Me Jamal
OK Park 8 1/2F 2021 SW Stakes (Sloppy/Sealed) – 23.52; 48.11;1:13.59; 1:39.05; 1:45.48 – Essential Quality
OK Park 8 F 2022 Smarty Jones (Sloppy/Sealed) – 23.03; 46.38;1:12.34; 1:39 44; 0:00.00 – Dash Attack.
Now, it should be noted that Essential Quality had made 2 previous starts over 8 1/2F (BCJ/Keeneland Futurity). Dash Attack won om debut over 8F. Call Me Jamal never made a start beyond 7F.
The final quarter for the Smarty Jones was 27.10. This indicates there was a pace meltdown on which Dash Attack capitalized. Using this final quarter split to extrapolate a final time for 8 1/2F. His final time would likely be in the 1:46 plus rang. Assuming Dash Attack completed the final quarter in less than 27.10. He would still be in the 1:45+ final time range. This would be comparable to the time recorded by both Call Me Jamal and Essential Quality on an off surface.
Call Me Jamal obviously has more tactical speed than Dash Attack. Is he as good as the Munnings colt? The comparison above suggest he could be. DA is 2 months older. But CMJ has what appears to be the better pedigree for routing. The last time Malibu Mood was crossed with a mare produced by a KD winner form the Mr. Prospector line. We got KD winner Orb (Malibu Moon/ Lady liberty by Unbridled)
Dash Attack’s dam sire Hard Spun is the process of establishing himself a s broodmare sire. However, SMJ’s dam sire Thunder Gulch is also the dam sire of Bayern winner of the PA Deby and BCC. He is also dam sire of the 2021 Tampa Bay Derby winner and 8th place KD finisher, Helium.
I am of the opinion that those 3 start 21days apart, the grit and determination displayed by CMJ in his routing debut and the 6 weeks between starts. Makes this May foal a formidable candidate to finish on the board. Given his ML of 30/1. He could spice up the exotic wager.
After all this analysis and speculation there he is no guarantee CMJ is good enough. But hope springs eternal.
Magnum Moon – Rebel and AK Derby winner (Malibu Moon – Dazzling Song by Unbridled)
The 750K Southwest Stakes is the second leg of the lucrative Derby prep schedule at Oaklawn Park. The $1,000,000-purse for the Rebel and the $1,250,000 for the Arkansas Derby make the Derby route at Oaklawn the richest one.
Baffert has been moderately successful in the Southwest. He took it with Castaway in 2012 and Super Ninety Nine in 2013. Since then he started Collected (4th) in 2016, Mourinho (4th) in 2018, and last year Spielberg was the runner up to Champion Essential Quality.
In contrast, Baffert has won 8 of the last 12 editions of the Rebel Stakes and 3 of the last 10 Arkansas Derbies (tied with Pletcher).
This year Baffert’s Empire of Speed will be represented by the beautiful Newgrange; the son of Violence sports the best numbers in the field. Also going for him is the aura of Derby Glory around the allied shoulders of John Velazquez and Bob Baffert.
Chasing the pace might be the best strategy against half a dozen speed horses in the 1 1/6 mile contest.
My top five horses for the Southwest are:
10-Newgrange, 7-Ignitis, 5-Costa Terra, 2-Dash Attack, 8-Barber Road…
…what do you think Matthew W? Call Me Midnight if you got a tip…!
Who will be demolishing the Newgrange?
If Newgrange runs well he will perhaps remain at Oaklawn under the name of Wayne Lukas or Steve Asmussen to get the points in the Rebel and/or the Arkansas Derby.
“This year Baffert’s Empire of Speed will be represented by the beautiful Newgrange”
2020 Sham winner – Authentic – 23.87; 47.94; 1:12.18; 1:37.57
2021 Sham winner – Life Is Good – 23.56; 46.67; 1:10.66; 1:36.63
2022 Sham winner Newgrange – 24.46; 48.94; 1:12.84; 1:38.32
Newgrange has to be considered slow by Baffert’s standard. The pace in the Sham was pedestrian at best and this suggests the field was devoid of serious talent.
The track variants applied to those particular days (a year apart) suggest that the three horses were close in terms of normalized speed.
The Sham was the slowest race of Life is Good … you may remember what happened in the final 100 meters.
Thanks for the Southwest history lesson, Nelson. Looks like only Collected, of Baffert’s recent Southwest runners, distinguished himself subsequent to the race. Only Super Ninety Nine and Mourinho were HEAVY favorites as Newgrange likely will be. One win, one out of the money. I’ll be betting against Newgrange today.
I am sure you had a brief moment of respite seeing Newgrange retreating to 5th coming to the last bend…
He was really uncomfortable on that track… I hope he is sound after that very odd run.
You are correct, Nelson. I felt good at the start when Noogie (my new name name for Newgrange) didn’t get the lead and even better when he seemed to stall in early stretch. But alas, it was not meant to be. No exacta, but I went big on Barber Road at 11-1 (!!!) and at least got a $7.40 place price. I believe that Noogie ran the last 1/16th in 6 2/5, and his off the pace run bodes well for his future on the Derby road. But it WAS a strange run. No excuse for Dash Attack. Maybe he just likes the wet stuff.
Next time will go better for you… I hit the trifecta 10 times with an ROI of 4.5…
As you said earlier, the Derby preps are not fertile ground for seismic Longshots.
Wow! Very nice. Congrats!! Yup, the faves are tough to beat. Fewer races for the best horses means they have to go all out for every race…well, at least the two or three races before the Derby.
Eddie F:
Trust you to come up with a semi-ridiculous moniker for Newgrange. Last time I heard the term “Noogie” Bill Murray was giving one to Gilda Radner.
Had no skin in this one, but was so pleased he won!
“Semi-“?????
RE-diculous.
It sure is a waste of 10 Derby points, though. But there’s still time to transfer to another trainer before the bigger races.
Deeply saddened by the death of Alphabet Soup. He now runs with the great thundering herd across the heavens.
“Soupy” had 31 good years, he was loved—his short legged little buddy is probably looking all over for him today!
Yes Matthew he did indeed live a long, loved dearly life. Still beautiful all the way to the end. Always thought he had such a pretty face and kind eyes.
A few years ago many thought he would be lost to melanoma but the innovative treatment saved his life.
No doubt his little friend is missing him.
Me, too, Linda. He instantly became my favorite when I visited Old Friends a few years ago. He looked remarkably good for his age even then. I’ll imagine him galloping in the stars with all the greats and near greats, from Eclipse to Medina Spirit.
Wish we had like and love buttons. Would give you a love button.
Awww, thanks!
Hello Steve – I am concerned about Zandon and hope that he hasn’t had a setback. Marty McGee write a DRF article about the upcoming Holy Bull possible entries and Zandon’s name was omitted. I’m hoping he’s ok and will race again soon. Maybe you could check with Chad Brown and give us a Zandon update, Thanks Steve.
Versus numero uno Smile Happy in the Risen Star would be my guess.
Hey Eddie – I hope you’re right about Zandon. The Holy Bull is coming up loaded and the Risen Star is a 50 point race to the winner. Really hope it wasn’t a setback. That’s the risk of KDFW, you get the big odds but you’re horse has to be healthy to make the gate.
Yes, Joe. Getting to the race is the biggest question. I went crazy last year with two bets in KDFW2 and I think two more in later pools. Only one horse was in the Derby. Two were injured and one underperformed in the final preps. That’s why I make small future bets only for fun.
Off topic but Kent Desormeaux has been arrested for domestic violence and strangulation, woman he assaulted is in hospital. He is off Stilleto Boy in the Pegasus tomorrow.
That’s terrible news Lynda. If convicted, this could be the end of Kent Desormeaux’s riding career. So sad.
It is nice to see the Blue Grass graded back to Grade I … The Wood Memorial will have to wait for its promotion to GI
As lackluster as NY’s early 3yo stakes have been, the NYRA should prepare for the Wood to be DOWNgraded next year.
The Street Sense Stakes is now a G3. Deserved.
Champion Vino Rosso, Preakness winner Cloud Computing (3rd) and even Tacitus could help in making a case for not downgrading the Wood.
Sometimes I feel like the quote “If you build it, they will come” applies to Stakes… e.g. if you make it a GI better horses will be entered there…
Let’s see how the Wood Memorial takes place this year… in Pletcher we trust!
Okay, you convinced me about not downgrading the Wood…for now. But no way it gets upgraded any time soon. The Wood is known mainly as a major final prep for the Kentucky Derby. It had G1 status from 2002 through 2016. Did “better horses” enter the Wood during that period? Apart from the Derby exacta in 2003, there were no ITM Derby finishes from Wood runners.
New York … we got a problem !!!
Emmanuel Entered in Allowance Race 6 at Tampa Sunday.
1
Agent Cooper
California Chrome
Timothy E. Hamm
Edgar Perez
2
Cloud Play
Into Mischief
Timothy E. Hamm
Rocco Bowen
3
Glider
Quality Road
Mark E. Casse
Antonio A. Gallardo
4
Emmanuel
More Than Ready
Todd A. Pletcher
Pablo Morales
5
Boitano
Nyquist
Eoin G. Harty
Jesus Lopez Castanon
6
In the Union
Union Rags
Todd A. Pletcher
Hector Rafael Diaz, Jr.
In the Union wasn’t all that fast, but he did a lot of things a first time starter does not often do, like split horses from behind, then change course and come up the inside I like him!
I just had a look at the nominations for the G3 San Vicente next week at Santa Anita and looks like Bobby B vs The Rest.
Of the 15 nominations eight are Bob’s including Newgrange who wont be one of the entrants since hes running in the Southwest this weekend.
With the KHRC meeting two days after the San Vicente about last year’s KDerby it will most interesting what will happen to the fate of those entrants as mentioned by Steve in the “BAFFERT BULLETIN”.
Actually the San Vicente is this weekend with 5 starters of which 3 are Bob Baffert trained.
Pinehurst, McLaren Vale & Doppleganger
Santa Anita is not allowed by law to offer any other kind of gamble wagers, in California that is 100% Native American controlled….Santa Anita is slowly dying.
As a longshot hunter my brain works overtime to identify dismissed entrants with the potential to upset. Now, I am not wild with my approach, but rather calculating.
For the Pegasus one would be crazy to oppose the top two in Life Is Good and Knicks Go. However, races are not won on paper and that’s why they go and run in a sport of glorious uncertainties.
Sir Winston was my selection to win the 2019 Belmont and he provided a nice ROI. The colt’s Belmont win was preceded by a monster closing performance in the Peter Pan that saw him finish like a runaway train only to come up short by 1 1/4l in a quick final time of 1:46.71. But like many of Mark Casse horses he was expected to go MIA in the short term. Well, he finished last of 12 next out in the Listed Woodchopper Stakes. He followed up with an Optional Claim win and after 2 poor performances from his next 3 starts, he was off for almost a year.
There is something noticeably different about Sir Winston since his return. There appears to be more power in his stride and he isn’t dropping double digits lengths behind the leaders His two wins and two seconds between August and December 2021, is the best record he will take into a race. He will get a lot of pace to run at and should the top two be found wanting in the lane, he could capitalize.
I didn’t like the physicals appearance of LIG in his recently published photo. If he run to his looks, I expect him to underperform and that could open the door for a Knicks Go /Sir Winston exacta.
On June 15th, 2019, Knicks Go finished 5th in the Matt Win. Nine days earlier on June 6th, Sir Winston won the Belmont. Yes, both are from the same 3YO crop. What a difference 2 years make.
In keeping with the blog’s subject matter, I predict that neither Knicks Go nor Sir Winston will be entered in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. As an aside, it’s interesting that the Pegasus is Sir Winston’s first G1 since the Belmont Stakes in 2019. Perhaps his recent form can simply be attributed to liking the Woodbine AW surface.
I’ve come up with six solid contenders at this early stage. But I wanted to dig a bit deeper into the handicapping mire, so I decided on an analysis of the horses’ names. What’s in a name? A rose by any other name would win the Kentucky Derby. Or would it?
1 Smile Happy — Everyone likes to smile and be happy, so this is a very good name. GOOD
2 Slow Down Andy — No racehorse should have the word “Slow” in its name. BAD
3 Zandon — This appears to be a rare given name for human boys. The letter “Z” as the first letter is also rare for a Derby runner. Only 7 have started in Derby history, although Zev won in 1923. Neither good nor bad, really, but I lean to … GOOD.
4 Simplification — Too many syllables for a one-word name (exception: Exterminator, a great name). BAD
5 Mo Donegal — Irish town and county names are cool. “Mo” doesn’t detract too much. GOOD
6 Epicenter — This refers to where an earthquake originates. The colt will not be popular in California. BAD
Honorable and dishonorable mentions:
Courvoisier — It’s fun to hear a race-caller’s French pronunciation. À votre santé! GOOD
Giant Game — I’ve never understood the combining of sire and dam names to create a moniker that makes no sense. BAD
Make it Big — I know how Michael Scott would reply to this name. GOOD (or BAD)
Commandperformance — If you can’t fit a name in 18 characters without having to close a space, come up with another name. No squeezed-name horse has ever won the Derby. BAD
Zandon might be a family name. There were immigrants from Germany and the Netherlands in the 1800’s through about 1920 with the sur name Zandon. Usually it was Von Zandon or Van Zandon. Many settled in Texas.
More likely it’s an anagram for Donna Z. 😉 [<- wink]
Very clever Mr. EddieF.
I sometime wish I didn’t take things so seriously. But I am an old and cranky malcontent.
I am high on Giant Game and must disagree with your comments regarding the combination of parts the sire’s and dam’s names. Sometimes it makes sense but other times it doesn’t and is not recommended.
Giant Game’s sire, dam and dam sire’s name provided many options to name the colt
Sire – Giant’s Causeway
Dan – Game For More
Dam Sire- More Than Ready
A few additional names that could have been considered form combinations:
More Causeway
Ready for More
Morethanagiant
Game Ready
Giant Road
The 2019 British Champion 2YO Pinatubo was cleverly named. His dam is Lava Flow. Mount Pinatubo features a Volcano in the Philippines. When volcanos erupt there is lava flow.
The Gant’s Causeway colt could be named using the approach in selecting the name Pinatubao.
CAUSEWAY – a raised road or track across low or wet ground.
Water Below
Pathway
Track Across
Esplanade
Pavement
Raised Road
Towpath
All the above are in some connected to a causeway in some form.
Well, I tried to be funny.
I like those names, CF. Esplanade is very nice, but it’s probably been used many times before. Towpath…That could be a first! Didn’t you mean to say that you AGREE with my comment about names that are based on sire and dam names? Some are good names, but some make no sense.
Good list Eddie.
I will follow your lead next week so as to make it a monthly personal grades.
Thanks, Nelson. It’s rarely wise to follow my lead.
Nice work Eddie.
Thanks, Mike.
Major General is the greatest name given the current bellicose times …
What you make of Charge It?
I prefer Dollar General.
Charge it…by Discover out of the Master Card mare Visa.
LOL. Good one.
Sometimes the breeding farm will ask for name suggestions for the foal crops.
Mr. Ramsey did that quite often and he would list the name of the sire and the dam along with the sex of the foal.
Stone Street tends to give their fillies feminine human names like Rachael Alexandra.
I have read that Sheik Mohammed personally approves the names of all the Godolphin Thoroughbreds.
The Bedouins and most Native American Indians thought that horses should never be given “human names” and even thought it was bad luck to do so and opted instead to give their horses descriptive names.
As a rule I especially like the names Coolmore gives their horses. I find them to be catchy and easy to remember.
I agree with you about some of the names, and find some of them to be just awful to the extent that I would never give my horses such a name.
These are their registered names however and have to be approved by the Jockey Club. Most of them have pet names or stable names (nicknames). LOL. I only refer to my horses by their registered names when we are having a serious discussion.
As best as some of the names are (in my opinion), they pale in comparison to the names given to AKC registered dogs.
Very interesting. I’ve always liked the one-syllable names from Claiborne Farm. And I’m intrigued by your admission that you have serious discussions with your horses. LOL
LOL. They are all mares (including the rescue donkey) and two are chestnut mares. Sure you have heard about the attitude a chestnut mare can have….typical fiery red heads.
I am sure you have heard “Tell a gelding, ask a mare and negotiate with a stallion.
I have learned with mares, you do all three: you ask, then negotiate then you tell them.
That’s when we have serious discussions and I use their full registered names.
They know then that the Alpha Mare (me) is not fooling around. HA HA
Now I know! 🙂
First Sat in May—“Slow DOWN, Andy–you GOT the Derby, but there’s two more races to go”!!!
Nice! A bit surprised by the absence of a Brad Cox runner. Plenty of time for Brad to get someone on the list. Great to see O’Neill and Reddam in the mix. I’m sure that means Mario is not far behind. A fun group to root for this time of year. And speaking of fun groups, it’s great to see the familiar names popping up to contribute here and create a real Circus Maximus. Two thumbs up any way you see it. Now if I can remember where I put my toga and laurel.
I expect Brad Cox to receive at least one Baffert colt. Cox did just fine with his first Derby runners last year. Your toga is in your toga drawer. (Duh!) The laurel is on the fireplace mantel. Just a guess.
Unfortunately all of my Bacchanalia wear is in a trunk up in the attick since the start of this pandemic. Maybe it’s time to at least bring it out. A change is going to come, I can feel it.
It could just be gas.
Obviously, ‘A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum’ but seriously, who do you like? If any?
I’m not overly smitten with anyone right now and I almost prefer it that way. Too many times I get attached and that’s not good for final wagering.
Yes, too true. The heart overrides the calculating mind. With the Baffert saga ongoing it’s hard to determine clarity.
Correctamundo, El K. These discussions, for me, are distinctly separate from decision-making after entries are drawn for the Derby.
Well put Mr. Facts, I agree with your train of thought and will be usiing Vivar and Barber Road as my main choices in exotics.
He does have a shot if he can overcome the 12 post with a very short run to the turn. Fom looks a little like Cal Me Midnight. Watch for Costa Terra to be flying late at a big price,
Steve, are there any you like in the St Vicente, Spectacular Bid, Jimmy Winkfield Stakes that may go longer after these races? I like a handful, waiting to see how they go before getting too excited. I’m a sucker for sprint starts in preparing a colt for a Kentucky Derby attempt. Time will tell.
Nyquist used the San Vicente as his next-to-last Derby prep. I don’t know if a Derby winner ever had a sprint as his penultimate prep. If one did, it was a LONG time ago.
i.e., ..if a Derby winner BEFORE Nyquist ever had…
Barber Road is a definite in my exacta box along with Dash Attack. He didn’t have a clear path in the stretch of the Smarty Jones, but once he did get clear he had good energy to get the place. I’m keeping Newgrange out of the exacta. He benefitted from a slow pace in the Sham and will be WAY overbet on Saturday. There will be plenty of competition on the from end — particularly from Ben Diesel who moves from Post 13 to Post 1. Looking for one more…maybe Costa Terra.
Hey Eddie!
I like Barber Road too, mostly because he’s been flying under the river despite two stakes placings and decent Beyers. Dash Attack is a good pick, too, but I’m looking for Newgrange to prove he’s a really good horse.
I mean radar. Darn that autocomplete!
I think your auto-correct sustained a head injury.
Classic Moment ran a decent time going 6 1/2 near the front end at Churchill then has a puzzling running line stretching out at Remington. I think he’ll be in the mix early on.
Steve Asmussen’s go to rider, Ricardo Santana Jr. was aboard Classic Moment, in his initial start, but has opted for Barber Road in the Southwest. That in itself speaks volumes, IMO.
I look for the order of finish as follows; Newgrange 1st, Dash Attack 2nd, Barber Road 3rd and Osbourne 4th.
I noticed that also and it does speak to something. I didn’t realize Team Valor, who bred Classic Moment, are in the breeding game. They got a good sum for him at auction.
Hey, Bill. Cmon! You’re picking the same order as the morning line. 😉
The Southwest Stakes appears to be a contest between the undefeated colts Dash Attack and Newgrange. Well, that’s what their ML of 7/2 and 2/1 indicate. Given the big upset that occurred in the Lecomte the possibility of one occurring in the SW is real. Let me take this opportunity congratulate Matthew on his longshot selection in the Lecomte and hope he made a ton. Wel done sir!
I consider Brad Cox entrant in the SW to be very interesting. His ML of 12/1 makes him also appealing. Why has he captured my attention? Well, it’s not because he is from a high-powered barn. It has to do with his race resume.
VIVAR:
Debut – Ellis Park; 8 1/2 F (turf – firm) – Closed 7L of the pace to finish 4th by 1 1/4L
2nd start -KY Downs; 8F – 8 1/2 F (turf – yielding) – Closed 8L of the pace to win by 1L
3rs start – Keeneland – 8 1/2F – Originally scheduled for turf – Ran on Fast main track. Raced 2L of the pace to win by 1L
4th start – Churchill Downs – Kentucky Jockey Club; 8 1/2F (Dirt/Fast) Faded to 6th beaten by 10L. Smile Happy the monster. was too much.
5th start – OK Park – Smarty Jones; 8F (Sloppy/Sealed) Closed 13 3/4L from 2nd last; forced 7W on the final turn nad was only beaten 3 1/4L
Five starts at 5 different venues and literally 5 different surface conditions. How often does this appear in a young horse’s resume? How can this information give an indication of the ability and versatility of such a horse? It wouldn’t be a stretch to state that this colt despite not having the most starts, certainly has the widest range of surface and venue experience.
If not for his 10L defeat in the KJC Stakes he would have a decent performance line. He has been working brilliantly at OK Park ahead of the SW. It’s the first time in the colt’s career that he will be making consecutive starts at the same venue. Could this make a difference? Is he really a turf horse? Those are pertinent questions.
If he gets a better trip and can improve on his Smarty Jones effort. I am of the opinion he can drop on the leaders like a ton of bricks. Well, he has shown enough to suggest he can. If he flops, I have no option but to move on to the next prep and my quest for a big payday.
Interesting pick, CF. Tough post, but how can anyone ignore a Brad Cox trainee in a graded stakes?
Thank you CF, I made two good plays—1) Had the winner and 2) Went down to Los Al and withdrew most of my winnings, what I left on my account I lost on Sunday, would have certainly lost more had I not grabbed the moolah Saturday night!
I know it’s not Kentucky Derby related, but there’s a race this weekend, a white elephant of a horse race in where the two who lay over the field, are both are very fast! Knicks Go knows one thing: GO! He recently easily dispatched a very nice three year old threesome. (There I go again….) Irad Ortiz is a jockey who never settles for 2nd place, therefore he MUST go out with Knicks, he must challenge the beast! Therefore…this race will LIKELY have a torrid pace, and yet the two horses are so much the best, a pace collapse just might not matter—no Mandalouns in the race, that would benefit from such a pace. Much criticism about the Pegasus—but it has not failed to bring out the cream of the crop, and in that respect….I am impressed!
Let’s hope it’s a clean run race, Ortiz Jr has recently been using various unsportsmanlike tactics to win races. Stewards at Gulfstream might not be as forgiving as they’re counterparts in New York.
The stewards inability to enforce the rules in the Remsen Stakes was shocking on so many levels.
I know, they gave him December off, should have been 90 days, even more, he looked over twice and just dropped the kid, at the most dangerous part of the track, and Irad got cut off at Gulfstream, a while back—and came back swinging fists—there’s aggressive riding–PVAL—and then there’s anger fueled aggressive riding—Irad. Incredible talent, though.
Yes, Ortiz Jr walked in and walloped Paco Lopez for the Lopez’s atrocious riding but at least Ortiz Jr stayed on. The other incident – pure evil intent, beyond anger?
I read that two of the three New York stewards were absent the day of the Remsen. The decision not to disqualify the winner must have been made by their subs, but the regular stewards did decide on the suspension, which they said was based on Irad’s rides that day and the day before.
I heard that both of the absent stewards were having procedures at the NY eye and ear infirmary at Mount Sinai.
Thanks for that. It makes the most sense out of bad decision. Way too obvious for an experienced steward to make such a gaff.
So what was the third “regular” steward doing while subs were looking at the replays? Bathroom break? There is NO reason to believe that the decision would have been different with the regular crew.
Maybe there is a reason to believe it. Braulio Baeza Jr., one of the absent stewards, said the decision to suspend Irad 30 days was based on his rides in both the Remsen and the race the day before. If there was no problem with his ride in the Remsen, there wouldn’t have been any reason to consider it.
Exactly.
Please reread my comments. Did I say that there was no problem with Ortiz’s riding behavior? He was clearly reckless with an INTENT to intimidate. That is a violation. But replays showed that the other horse and rider were not intimidated to the extent that there was interference. Zandon continued in his path without obstruction. Suspension and fine? YES. Disqualification? NO.
That’s how I interpret the New York State rules of racing.
That is…please reread my comments further down the page in another thread. I thought they were in THIS thread. LOL
A variation of Steve’s theme this week (2) is the question about how the champion sires (in years prior to each Derby) performed in the first leg of the Triple Crown series.
A genetic giant like Bold Ruler did not have any Derby winner during his consecutive seven years as champion Sire (from 1963 to 1969). It was Secretariat who provided his legendary Sire with a Derby win and a final championship in 1973. Seven out of the ten Derbies of the seventies were won by a son and grandsons of Bold Ruler. That decade was the kingdom of a Bold Ruler….!
Mr. Prospector is the only stallion with more impact in the Derby than Bold Ruler.
Seattle Slew was the 1982 Leading Freshman Sire before his son Swale won the 1984 Derby.
Alydar was first in the American general sire list of 1990 and sired the winner of the 1991 Derby Strike the Gold.
The next eight years was a drought of Derby winners for the leading sires of the time. Then in 2000 the great Mr. Prospector produced his only Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. Mr. Prospector had died in June the previous year but he was 27 years old when Fusaichi Pegasus was foaled.
Many may remember the generalized surprise about champion sire Storm Cat not producing any Derby winner. Not only that but for 14 years after his last title the Derby winner did not have Storm Cat within his five first generations. Tabasco Cat was the best Storm Cat in the TC series winning the Preakness and the Belmont but finished 6th as the third choice in the Derby. Cat Thief (3rd place in 1999) and Bluegrass Cat with his 2nd in 2006 were closer.
Storm Cat’s footprint in the Derby augmented greatly with American Pharoah (2015), Nyquist (2016), Always Dreaming (2017), Justify (2018), Authentic (2020) and Medina Spirit (2021). All of them got Storm Cat within the third and fourth (Authentic) generation.
20 years passed since Fusaichi Pegasus to see another son of a champion sire wearing the Roses… in 2019 leading sire Into Mischief yields the 2020 Derby winner Authentic.
Flower Alley and Lucky Pulpit were the least renowned sires of Derby winners in the last 10 years. The others were a champion Sire in 2010 (Malibu Moon), 2nd in first crop sire list (Pioneerof the Nile), two leading first crop Sires (Uncle Mo and Scat Daddy) and two ranked 3rd in the first crop list (Bodemeister and Lookin at Lucky).
Medina Spirit came from the first crop of Protonico.
Seven of the Stallions listed in the sweet 16 meet the criteria of successful Derby Sires gathered the last 10 years:
Connect, Nyquist, Giant’s Causeway, Uncle Mo, GUN RUNNER, Union Rags, Not This Time and CONSTITUTION.
Multiple Champion Sire Tapit is yet to produce a Derby winner. His best card this year is Charge It.
Almanzo is running well for Brad Cox but still a maiden. Courvoisier and Naval Aviator seem to be more like Belmont horses.
Runhappy the sire of early Derby favorite Smile Happy, did not have the greatest start as a sire placing 17th with his first crop but climbed to 3rd best sire with his second crop.
This Derby appears to be very open from any angle you see it.
A son of Runhappy 8-1 in January—unreal!
Any son at 8-1 in a January KDFW is unreal!
Nelson, you are putting a lot of pressure on Tapit’s ability to impart stamina in trying to will Naval Aviator or Courvoisier on to win the Belmont Stakes but where’s there’s life, there’s hope. I hope you are right though, especially with Naval Aviator.
Three winners in the 12f Belmont is not a coincidence. As the saying goes…It doesn’t hurt!
The sire is only half the equation, respectfully sir. The dam is just as important. As for today look how much the sport has changed when it comes to racing 2 and 3 year olds. They train more, race less. Then promptly get retired.
Totally agree Laura.
Agreed. And not just because I’m a woman.
I got a study about the females and families in the Derby but it is to lengthy to be posted here…!
Compared to a sire’s progeny record, there’s much less to go on with a dam, who may have produced no previous runners or just a handful at most. A full examination of the pedigree, with an emphasis on the most recent generations, seems to be the best approach.
That seems to be the way they do it today at least. Don’t think though that was always the case. The long tradition of family farms has almost disappeared. They want to breed to the high dollar stud and not sure they really “match” the pedigree for success with the dam. That is just my opinion though.
Forced Ranking, by Mastery, out of an After Market mare, appeared to be promising 2yr. old, winning a 7 furlong race, at Belmont Park last October. Trained by Chad Brown, Forced Ranking has not recorded an official work since that maiden win.
If there’s anyone out there that might know what’s going on with this colt, I’d appreciate a reply.
Thanks.
Steve, granted that it’s way too early to envisage a field for the 2022 Kentucky Derby, but, going by your 16 above and an odd four from the ‘knocking on the door’ brigade, you can be certain of one thing – nobody has a clue!! Lol. Most of the sires listed above, apart from Constitution, are mere guesses at siring a 10f firebrand. So you have my greatest admiration in being able to list 16 you have confidence in.
I have a list of about 50 that is gradually being whittled down as the weeks pass. One can only hope that the colts you ‘think’ are real Derby runners will come to the fore in the major preps. Lots of time to anguish over.
Anyway, keep up the sterling effort, Steve, your writing and perceptions are always the best part of the Derby trail the races wouldn’t be the same without you. Is there a colt you really believe in? Thanks, as always.
Hi Davids!
My virtual stable has 59 three-year-old hopefuls with the addition of Sir London who was mentioned below by Longshot king Matthew.
As you said, I trust that many of them will be running in the upcoming prep races so I can separate them.
e.g. 10 of the 12 runners of the Southwest are my list and at least 7 will be out by Sunday. I expect Dash Attack and Newgrange to move forward …
Good luck, with your 59, Nelson. Yes, I’ve liked Sir London from his first start at Santa Anita in early October last year but until they start winning stakes races with points they’re just three year olds with promise.
With the Southwest, I’m using Barber Road as a measuring stick.
Thanks very much, David. I list 16, but I sure dont have confidence in them, not in January. I do like my top 3 and after that who knows? I’m just trying to find positives in these horses to make a case for them. If Doppelganger runs huge Sayurday I’m going to have decide whether to stick with my rules regarding Baffert’s horses or start finding places for them if they stand out.
I vote for leaving the Baffert horses out. At least until they can earn points to qualify for the Derby. What’s that? Oh… I don’t get to vote? Rats.
Steve, you could always have a ‘virtual’ Derby Rankings 16, along with the ‘normal’ Derby Rankings. The virtual Derby Rankings including Baffert’s stable. Mind you, that’s almost twice the amount of work you’re covering at present. Ha ha!!
I’d be surprised if the connections of a Derby prospect, that looks a real candidate, wouldn’t switch trainers to run in a major prep race for a chance to run in the Kentucky Derby.
What about Tapit, Giant’s Causeway, and Union Rags? It’s all guesswork anyway. After the final preps, we should have a decent idea about what these horses can do based on their final preps.
Tapit…sire of Courvoisier, not in Steve’s 16.
Tapit can really move mares up so you’d be looking at past performances within the family. Courvoisier looks more like the dam than Tapit, possibly more a miler than a Classic type but this could be wrong, just an opinion.
At least with the Tapits you have history behind you that a Classic runner is not unexpected by him. With Gun Runner, Cupid, Run Happy, Not This Time et al their progeny is a guess. Wait and see. They could just be precocious types that look good early on. Wait and see.
I am nothing if not patient. 🙂
The best philosophy with horse racing, then there’s luck. Luck is a fickle mistress. Ha ha
Agreed 100%.
I have no idea how fast Sir London is…but he is well built!
His Thoro-Graph numbers are slow, but he sue looks good visually. And he’s training great,
Maybe that’s why Baffert chose the Southwest (purse $750k) for Newgrange instead of the R Lewis (purse $200k) where he might face Sir London AND Slow Down Andy. He can’t earn any Derby points in either, but I guess the purse is worth the travel.
I’m not saying it’s going to happen….but Newgrange might be making a one way flight to Arkansas….
Hmmm. Veddy eenterestink!
When he changes leads he’s strong on the right lead–is well put together, but I’ve no idea if he’s fast enough, just that I’ve been looking at the works out west, lately….Messier looks fantastic, so does Doppleganger…Slow Down Andy continues to look right, but he’s a beautiful horse, I think he’s the real deal!
Sir London mightn’t be brilliantly fast but he shouldn’t have any problems managing 10f with plenty of Buckpasser and Seattle Slew to support these expectations.
Steve has written about Zandon’s amazing 3-furlong jump from sprint debut to the Remsen. If Zandon had gotten his nose in front of Mo Donegal (or if Mo had not interfered with him), the accomplishment of debuting with a maiden sprint win, followed by a graded stakes win around two turns, and he wins the Ky Derby, it may have be unprecedented. I checked all Derbies back to 1990. The first horse I came up with that won a debut sprint and then a two-turn graded stakes was Bellamy Road in 2004; he went on to finish 7th as the Derby favorite. Since then, only four have done the trick: 3rd-place Derby finisher Curlin (his first two races were as a 3yo), Carpe Diem (10th in KD), Gormley (9th in KD), and Essential Quality (4th in KD). I doubt that it occurred prior to 1990. It should be noted that Major General had a successful double last summer, albeit by a neck in each race (6.5f & 8.5f).
But the most amazing aspect of Zandon’s near accomplishment was that he was stretching out 3 furlongs! The only one of the above-named colts that equaled that stretch-out was Carpe Diem, who went from 5.5f to 8.5f. I won’t draw any conclusions from all of this, other than to say that Zandon’s performance was remarkable.
Still wondering how the stewards could figure it didn’t cost Zandon a nose.
Probably because it didn’t look like Zandon broke stride. Velazquez figured he could still win, even with Ortiz’s intimidation. If he had checked, it would have been a DQ.
That’s well put—Cordero would’ve jerked him up and taken the DQ—I loved how Zandon was coming back–Mo Donegal is a nice colt.
Thanks. I’m guessing both have success in big races.
I thought we were watching superior horse racing in the 21st Century not chariot racing at the Colosseum around 100 AD with Caesars thumbing up or down on a whim. Atrocious decision.
You’re comparing modern horse racing (even just the Remsen) to chariot racing in ancient Rome? C’mon! I don’t agree that the Remsen decision was atrocious. Maybe it was the wrong decision, but not the way I saw it. Anyway, you’re confusing chariot racing with gladiators. In Rome, the races were at the much larger Circus Maximus, and to the best of my knowledge did not end with thumbs pointed in any direction.
Circus Maximus is correct but I was using license to stress the powers stewards have – thumbs up, thumbs down. Ortiz Jr’s riding in the Remsen was disgraceful. Mind you, that was mild compared to other tactics he’s pulled. Johnny Velasquez has been a shining example of professionalism, and fairness.
Racing doesn’t need a top rider providing the worst examples to younger, aspiring jockeys. The French, Hong Kong, et al stewards would have curved this behavior years ago. Owners don’t like seeing their horses taken down because a jockey is overly aggressive when there is no need to.
I’m not sure if you have ever followed European football (soccer) but strikers began ‘diving’ initially because umpires were letting fouls go which were obvious to everyone. Does racing have to descend to jockeys exaggerating an obvious infraction because the stewards are incapable of doing their jobs. For goodness sake, Ortiz Jr was almost sitting on Velasquez’s lap – yes, an exaggeration but valid.
It’s a valid comparison to European football, though it happens in other sports, too, like basketball, hockey, and even American football. I think that Ortiz deserved a hefty fine and lengthy suspension for his riding tactics in the Remsen. But a DQ? Not convinced of that.
I’m 100% behind stewards who come down hard on any infractions jockeys make, they learn fast. Racing is a dangerous sport that is aesthetically beautiful when every goes right but the slightest deviation from the rules can result in death, disability to both jockey and horse. Cowboys can go to the rodeo if they want that kind of sport.
As I indicated, I’m all for fines and suspensions. But it’s simply unfair when a disqualification is made for reckless riding that doesn’t interfere with another horse’s progress.
Good research EddieF.
In the past (i.e. 60s and 70s) it was customary a steady progression from 5f, 5,5f, 6f, 6.5f, 7f to land in the mile of the Champagne. And earlier there were a lot of 4.5f races for 2-year-olds … good or bad? I don’t know… just different eras.
Medina Spirit impressed me finishing second in the 8f of the Sham after winning a 5.5f debut at Los Alamitos. It was the only time Life is Good was hounded in California.
Zandon has been outstanding indeed … The excellent job done by Chad Brown with Good Magic and Practical Joke is a good groundwork for Zandon’s development.
Thanks, Nelson. Yes, Medina Spirit was impressive. Authentic won his debut and then won the Sham. But, of course, his Derby was in September so it really doesn’t count for this conversation.
Steve, your Derby rankings are the perfect antidote for my Monday blahs this time of year! Truly “can’t miss”reading! As a fan for well over a decade, I read and highlight many comments and reread often. Have to admit I am entertained/ intrigued/sometime amused by Coldfacts and provets comments and insights. I do look forward to them, good, bad or indifferent. A couple potentials I’m interested in are Tiz the Bomb and MacKinnon. We shall see. Sincerely appreciate you!
Thanks John
My KD dark horse has been on a steady work routine ahead of his 3YO debut. Where and when that will be is TBD. See below:
11/19/21 -last start as 2YO – Won MSW at CD over 8 1/2F
Works since – Payson Park Training Center
12/20/21 – 3F in 38.60
12/31/21 – 4F in 49.40
01/07/22 – 4F in 51.80
01/15/22 – 4F in 50.20
01/22/22 – 4F in 50.60
I recently found the video of his maiden win at CD on YouTube. It’s race #9 under CD Replays 11/19/21. He looks every bit of Deby prospect to me. But there might be a lack of objectivity since he is my dark horse. But in all seriousness. The colt raced in 2nd last by more than 8l. He was just ahead of an entrant that displaced its rider.
He was asked for a midrace effort and responded readily to gobble up the leaders in the lane and pulled away for an easy victor. I am big on stride mechanics. This colt is an out and out router with good stride mechanics and an excellent stride turnover rate.
He appears not to be the typical Medaglia D’oro progeny. His is devoid of tactical speed but appear to have an excellent turn of foot. His Maiden win suggested he has a lot of upsides the stronger he gets. He appears to be a better colt than County House.
If he flops, I will be man enough to state that my evaluation criterion leaves lot to bed desired. I was regarded as
an idiot engaging in nonsense when I highlighted O Besos in 2021. He didn’t win the KD but finished a respectable 5th. That was a lot better placing than the likes Known Agenda and Midnight Bourbon.
Interesting you weren’t ‘man enough’ to acknowledge your error suggesting KG couldn’t get 10f in Breeders Classic,when I stated he could and would. Won’t hold my breath.
If my horse plays were wrong 70% of the time I’d be having a good day!
He’s never wrong. lol
Especially when he doesnt give the name of the horse he’s writing about. Like everyone is supposed to remember every horse he writes about. I sure dont know who it is.
For him, Mr. Haskin, it’s all fiction.
Hi Cold Facts:
You don’t mention your dark horse by name, but the only winner of a 1 1/16th mile race at Churchill Downs was Gilded Age, a very nice individual. He’s on my long list, too.
A new series just began on HBO called The Gilded Age, by the same person who gave us Downton Abbey, and this show is great
The horse improved big-time with blinkers added.
Steve, the show just started and will come out every week. The ‘greatness’ talk will talk for this show should talk about it down the line…
Oh good, something to look forward to now that the 40-day champion on Jeopardy got beat. LOL. (I’m dating myself.)
It was nice to hear that Greatest Honour, out since the Florida Derby 10 months ago, had his first workout (3f) at Payson Park yesterday.
Thanks for update Eddie,been wondering how GH was doing. One thing for sure,Shug won’t rush his horses.
You’re welcome, Mike. Yes, Shug will take his time. I hope GH does as well as Honor Code, who returned from a similarly long layoff to win a few graded stakes, including the Met Mile and the Whitney.
Both horses I’m a fan of.
Hi Steve it is always great to see you get going with your rankins, whatever they are called. I look forward to and read them every week. I wondered whether you had considered McCallum, who I saw live at Tampa where I now live. My stable mail comments were “goofy, dropped back to last, found best stride late.” I am very interested in this horse, also Spin Wheel, who you mentioned last week.
I mentioned both in Week 1.
Steve, Doug O’Neill tries to about Bob B’s maidens, and with Nyquist going to Florida, and Hot Rod Chariie going to Louisiana he avoided Bob. .perhaps this year their plan is to stay home, with the plan to avoid Bob’s best three year olds because by the time the San Felipe and SA Derby come along those horses will have changed over to eastern barns? Just tossing it out there, it’s a weird year—but I wouldn’t just toss Bob’s three year olds, like some on here think, he has some nice ones.
Avoid—not about! I gotta check better!
I don’t think there are many people “tossing” the Baffert 3-year-olds. Lots of folks, myself included, just aren’t considering them at this time. We know they’re out there. We know their records. When and if they move to new trainers, we can easily consider them against all the others. Crunch time comes in less than a month when the 85-point races begin. We’ll know a lot more by then. As for O’Neill’s prospects, they’ll get to the Derby if they’re good enough…regardless of where they race in preps.
He doesn’t have to worry now regarding avoiding BB.
Right, that was my point—he can keep Slow Down Andy home this time—not have to go to Florida, or Louisiana.
Hi Steve;
Still waiting for the 3 year old “Wow” performance on this year’s Derby trail: we have plenty of time and prep races to come. Not sure if I will cash this year with the following strategy but it does save money: I am not worrying about any Baffert or ex-Baffert horse, continuing to ignore Pletcher horses (generally peak in prep races) and Assmussan horses (his first Derby winwill be at my expense!). I think this might be Kenny McPeek’s and on thst subject, I think William Hill here in Vegas opened Tiz the Bomb a bit too high at 120-1. I put $25 down and when I checked today, he was already adjusted down to 75-1…I would like to think my $25 moved the line but I am sure a lot of serious money pounced! Can’t wait for the 1 1/8 races!!!
I’m also waiting for a ‘wow’ performance, but its still January. Sometimes you dont want them Wowing too early
e
I remember how Soldat “Wowed” on a January 21th … his battery lasted till the Fountain of Youth …it wasn’t McLaughlin’s brightest training job with that particular horse.
I remember when Arazi did the same in BC Juvenile: He made a monster move and put away Bertrando and won going away…unfortunately Kentucky Derby did not go too well…
After that feat Arazi was named the Cartier Europe’s Horse of the Year. He was the only horse to achieve that as a juvenile.
The consensus is that he was not the same after undergoing surgery in both knees following the BC Juvenile… he took more time than expected to recover and ran only one prep 25 days before the Derby… it was an Insurmountable challenge for a 15-hand super star as a 2-year-old…
War of Will wowed in January, and not just because his initials were WOW. Peaked too soon, but came back in the Preakness.
I see Major General as an agreeable addition to the sweet 16.
The $420,000 son of Constitution won the Iroquois Stakes in just his second start following a winning debut sprinting at Saratoga.
Major General’s time for the 1 1/6 mile (1:44.88) did not spark any fireworks but it was a very credible effort considering he had a less than perfect trip. He stumbled at the start, had troubles in the first turn and dealt with bumps down the lane. As Steve said, he got the will to overcome adversity.
The Iroquois run on September 18th at Churchill Downs yielded the first qualifying points in the Road to the Roses and gave Major General a free ticket to the Breeder’s Cup. But he instead got a 3-month break …
Pletcher may have him running in the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass on April 9th if there are no bumps on the road.
Another one with a lot of catch up to do is Commandperformance. I wish I had Steve’s information about him returning last week to the barn as he ended at 44 to 1 in the Futures Pool 2 … I could have “invested” a couple of bucks on his number.
BTW we are also fortunate to receive Steve’s exclusive revealing information about Simplification …
I didn’t like the fact that MG’s fig in the sprint debut was significantly higher than the fig in the stakes route. His stakes win wasn’t visually impressive. But as Steve wrote, why not consider him now when he’s undefeated?
Which figures are you alluding to?
Sorry. Brisnet…92 and 83 speed figures. Pace figures were down from the maiden win, too.
Equibase shows a slight progression from 82 in debut to 83 in the Iroquois …
Anyways, the fact that Major General is undefeated despite him still learning basically how to run makes me think he got a ton of upside … He should stop goofing around to fulfill his potential.
I hope to see him running by the end of February or March … then these questions will be answered …
BSFs were 77 for debut and 76 for the Iroquois. With 5 (or more) months off, he’s going to be quite a bit behind the other contenders.
Yes Eddie… he will have to contend with that… I am just sharing my observations to justify following him until D day…!
Excellent list Steve, very detailed & informative. I wish I had a a pulse for any of these horses but it’s still January and I am still fumbling through.
I have a question though, with what’s looming over Baffert do believe he will be able to have any of his horses run in the Derby?
I read the week 1 blog where you are holding off on critiquing the Baffert horses before adding them to the Derby Rankings.
I really am interested on how you feel about Corniche.
This Derby appears to be as wide open as any in recent memory.
Many thanks for this 2nd great Derby Rankings, you usually top yourself every week.
Corniche isn’t a 10f horse.
I dont see him as a Derby horse right now. He hasnt worked since the BC, is probably at some training center and I doubt when he does come back he’ll return to Baffert.
Agree! Thanks as always for your insight Mr. Haskin. What’s your opinion regarding horse, OC?
Call Me Midnight earned a 94 Brisnet fig (Mandaloun, 104). Other 3yo notables on the card were Pioneer of Medina 87, Gunfighter 86, and Peaceful Waters 85.
Thanks for the information EddieF… BRIS Class for Mandaloun is 123.1 and 119.4 Call Me Midnight which puts him only below Jack Christopher who got 122 in the Champagne. Pappacap had a BRis Class rating of 120 before the LeComte.
I am also interested to see the Brisnet early pace figures for Epicenter. They should be the fastest that week (around 110+)
I don’t like having to wait for past performances to see the pace ratings. Steve has really gotten me hooked on them.
I really enjoyed the summary of pedigrees complementing your analysis in week 2.
At this early stage of the Trail, it is typical to see the young prospects through the lenses of their bloodlines. It is an initial attempt to answer the question of who will enjoy going 10 furlongs …
It is noteworthy the presence of Giant’s Causeway in the pedigrees of seven of the sixteen ranked horses. Three sons of Not This Time (a son), one by Gun Runner, Giant Game and Zandon are living reminders of the genetic power of Giant’s Causeway.
It could have been as many as four sons on Not This Time in the ranking if we were to renew enthusiasm over Howling Time … !
Also, the nick Not This Time-Candy Ride is represented by two very promising fast horses in Simplification and Chasing Time. The nick Candy Ride – Giant’s Causeway gave us Gun Runner and it seems that reversing the cross is promising too.
Zandon belongs to the second crop of Upstart who might be seen as an average sire so far; But he is the sire of Reinvestment Risk (the runner up in the 2020 Hopeful and Champagne Stakes) and Masqueparade who won the Ohio Derby last year creating a bit of buzz thanks to his solid speed.
Upstart took the Gulfstream route to the 2015 Derby rather successfully as he won the Holy Bull impressively over Frosted; also finished first in the Fountain of Youth but was disqualified to second for drifting out and bothering a Pletcher horse named Itsaknockout. Upstart was the odds-on favorite in the Florida Derby but could not beat Materiality… another Pletcher horse (what a shock!).
Zandon seamlessly going from 6 furlong to 9 furlongs speaks volumes about his huge reserves of speed and stamina … considering he has run only twice you can say that there is a lot of furlongs left in him.
Zandon looks ready to emulate his Sire’s success at Gulfstream and become the seventh entry for Chad Brown in the Derby… and perhaps with better result as there is no American Pharoah or Justify () this year …
Thanks for pointing out that emerging nick, Nelson! I too have been noticing the Not this Times. Was so disappointed for Dale Romans when that colt had to be retired in November of his 2YO year. He had the look of a potentially great one.
Good work! Zandon is high on my list.
“as there is no American Pharoah or Justify this year” — Not YET!
Not Yet indeed … that is why I had the brackets after Justify…
Oh..so that’s what “()” was for. LOL.
Yes … I could not a find a brief way to remind ourselves that Justify debuted on February 18th …
Zandon for sure!
Totally agree with your post!
I’m trying out a new method for making decisions this road to the triple crown (I’m awful at making 50/50 decisions). I call it “weigh the facts”. I will take Steve’s facts + my researched facts about a given horse, and assign my own “weight” to each fact (how important I think the fact is), 1 being lightest and 10 being heaviest. Then I simply “stack all the facts on a scale”, negative facts on the left side and positive facts on the right side. Add up the “weight” total on each side and the difference is my net weight for the horse. Eg. 20 negative and 50 positive = net +30. The horse with the highest positive net is my decision. The greater the gap between horses the greater my confidence.
This might be an absolute horse s$!t method of decision making but it can’t be any worse than jumping from one horse to another and always ending up on the wrong one. At the very least it’s an interesting self experiment.
Your formula appears sound. My approach is finding a wager that covers all the likely variables that can occur in a race. But that’s an expensive approach which requires the usage of many entrants.
This was posted just so you could get in an “SOB” and a “WTF”.
LOL.
Keen eye lol.
Eddie, here is my conversation with the owner.
“Oh, so you’e going to point for the Fountain of Youth.”
No I think I’m just to put a lip chin on him and wait 8 weeks for the Florida Derby.”
I didnt mean to write Fountain of Youth. I specifically mentioned the Fountain of Youth to her and she specifically said Florida Derby. Regardless of the time frame I can only go by what they say. And when she said 8 weeks she might have meant 8 weeks from now (the time we spoke). I even acted surprised when she said Florida Derby. Maybe shes confused but I gave her every chance to say she meant Fountain of Youth. Having dealt with owners for 40 years I just kept him at No. 10 where he was last week and let it go at that. Doug O’Neill told me Friday Slow Down Andy was going in the Southwest. I listened to him and got screwed. It’s the nature of the beast. You either believe them or you don’t. Even if you dont you have to write what they say.
Hi Steve
Please allow me to chime in for a moment on your comment to EddieF.
Thanks for the clarification on Simplification’s next start. The owner said the Florida Derby, then so be it. It’s her horse.
All you can do is report, Steve. It doesn’t indicate that you believe what they tell you. 🙂
But thanks for the clarification. I don’t know anything about the owner. Maybe she’s confused about the plans, as you say. One true prep would be a mistake. As one who thinks this colt has a shot, I’m hoping he runs in the FOY and the Fla Derby.
Maybe she was being sarcastic. This is the first time I’ve ever heard of a lip chin, but it sounds like some sort of a curb.
Lip chain. Typo
Field of 12 post for the GIII Southwest at Oaklawn Park this Saturday.
Pointgetters in the field:
Ben Diesel
Dash Attack
Osborne
Ignitis
Kavod
Baffert sends Newgrange for stakes only 😉 And there is a nice bunch given that the racino is well supported.
Dash Attack will likely be the second favorite. He broke slow from Post 1 last time and still won convincingly. There should be plenty of early pace for his late run.
Imagine if he wins and McPeek has four of the top 10 horses
Yeah…and he still wouldn’t be the main topic of conversation, if you catch my drift. 😉
McPeek is loaded.
So much for listening to trainers. I guess O’Neill changed his mind after telling me Slow Down Andy was going in the Southwest. Watch out for Costa Terra. I’ve been following him closely for a long time. Hes better than it looks on paper.
I thought their original plan was the Risen Star….I thought I read that after the LA Futurity, that they were looking at Louisiana.
Reported on January 7 to have been considering both races (per DRF).
Sorry. Both races being the Southwest and the RB Lewis.
That horse has talent–but is still looking towards the grandstand down the lane…maybe they want to try full blinkers,
That might do the trick. I’d hate to see him lose by a nose because he was looking at a filly with a big hat.
Me personally I don’t see PapaCap being a derby winner. If you are the class of the field and can’t win at fairgrounds which hasn’t produced a Ky Derby winner in yrs and only one other in the top 2 then I don’t see you moving forward . To me once a colt regresses it tells me they were just a precocious 2 yr old.
I NEVER disregard a horse off one bad performance.
Mark, I’ve liked Pappacap as a top Derby prospect and was disappointed in his race on Saturday. But to be fair, he had a 2.5-month layoff since the BCJ. No way I’m going to write him off in January after finishing a close third in his 3yo debut. He has time to prove himself. As to the Fair Grounds criticism, it looks like horses prepping there are doing well lately. In the 2021 Derby, Mandaloun finished second (and will likely be named the winner eventually), Hot Rod Charlie was another 1/2 length behind, and O Besos and Midnight Bourbon finished 5th and 6th. In the Sept 2020 Derby, Mr Big News finished 3rd at odds of 46-1. In 2019, Country House finished 2nd and won by DQ, while War of Will would certainly have finished closer than 8th if not for the interference. Also, in this century, War Emblem and Funny Cide prepped at FG. In between, other FG-prepped entries ran well.
Agree! One bad race, no big deal!
At this point in time Pappacap and Epicenter share the leader board in points at 14 and are listed as #1 and # 2 respectively (Pappacap has more in earnings than Epicenter). 6 Starts: 2 – 2 – 1, $596,000.
Historically (since 2013 when the points system started) a colt having 25 points (usually) will make it to the Derby.
We are just at the beginning with most of the qualifying races yet to come and I am just not ready to write Pappacap off.
I have tried very hard to stay out of the Baffert versus CHD and NYRA controversy. For one thing I do not have access to all the detailed information that CHD has. The other reason is that anytime anyone even remotely takes the side of CHD, a Salem Witch Trial starts against that person.
From my vantage point, however, it seems that CHD and the NYRA have their heels dug in just as firmly as Baffert does. The trial in New York started today and the attorneys presented opening arguments. Baffert’s attorney made much to do over the jealousy of Baffert by the NYRA because his horses win all the big races leaving the trainers who are based in New York out in the cold.
I am no attorney and have no or no legal expertise but if the case Baffert’s attorneys made today is all they have then I am not sure that will bode well for Baffert.
Personally, I was hoping that both matters (CHD & NYRA) would have been settled by now. It certainly has left the owners of the horses in Baffert’s barn in limbo. How long can they hold out on moving their horses to another trainer. Guess on the positive side, the longer they leave them with Baffert, the more prepared they will be for the Derby. But what about points. The NYRA has said that it will take nominations for the Belmont Stakes until January 29th. What about the points?
How long can the owners hold out on moving their horses and try to squeeze out points in the later races.
At this point in time, I think but do not know that CHD is holding out until the necropsy report is back on Medina Spirit.
The sport of horse racing and the industry has been on the decline for many years. We have all discussed at some time or the other the reasons for the decline: dwindling foal crops, shrinking fields, track closures and the welfare of its horses facing sharper scrutiny by animal rights activist groups and the 1000 pound guerilla in the room: drugs and doping.
HISA has ended negotiations with USADA to be the regulatory agency for the Anti-doping and race track safety laws that were supposed to go into effect July 01, 2022 which means implementation of the new law will result in the effective date early in 2023.
Additionally, the CHRB Equine Medical Director, Jeff Blea, will face a number of allegations related to improper administration of drugs while he worked as a racetrack vet that could put his veterinary license at risk. One investigation leads back to the drug overage found in Justify during his run up to the Triple Crown races.
I have enjoyed this sport for most of my life and know that for the most part these horses are not mistreated or giver PEDs.
HOWEVER, the horse racing industry in the United States has once again demonstrated it cannot clean up its act even with a Federal Law in place. This whole mess smells of nothing but “politics” and I think it is nothing more where HISA is concerned is to give HPBA to push their lawsuit that the HISA is unconstitutional.
My fear is that Thoroughbred Horse Racing in the United States is going to go the route of greyhound racing in Florida. All it will take is for there to be a ballot referendum to ban pari-mutual betting on horse racing. That is what happened in Florida.
I do not have answers, and neither does anyone else at this point.
If anyone should resent Baffert for winning all the races its Santa Anita. How often does Baffert ship to NY.? If anything they should resent Pletcher and now Chad Brown Baffert has his faults, but he saved the Belmont Stakes. The two years before he became a rock star with Silver Charm, the attendance for the Belmont was 36,000 and 40,000. Then came Charm and they had 72,000, then Real Quiet and War Emblem and the Belmont attendance was up around a record 100,000. Why would they resent him when he just won two Triple Crowns at Belmont and had the place literally shaking.
I agree Steve. So why would his attorney make such a claim in the opening today of his case in the NYRA? That makes no sense at all to me!
Have you heard his attorney in the past? Doesnt surprise me.
Thank you Steve….absolutely brilliant. Baffert’s attorney (s) make mention of the 8 members of the NYRA that owns horses and have been beaten by Baffert time and time again in their own backyard speaks volumes.
Hell, on a personal level I’d probably try to ban Baffert myself in my home park in one way or another if I was an owner and keep losing to this guy.
His claim has a lot of merit.
Especially when Bib has not had any recent NY violations, and trainers who HAVE….are running horses there.
o
Sobering thoughts, Linda. Thanks for posting this.
Folks, the attempted federal hostile takeover by HISA will sap 10% of purse money from tracks. It starts here. This is to fund their federal takeover goverment agency which therir funding was never mentioned before a federal committee and is just the beginning. It starts at 10% and will probably jump to 12.5% within a year and then go upwards after that…which might be an attempt to suffocate the industry.
HISA is populated by previous hard core discplinaires from both the NFL and the MLB with the end results that might end the horseracing industry.
HISA is not well represented by the others in the horseracing industry….they are in the vast minority.
From where did you get that information (i.e., 10% of purse money)?
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/New_fed_proposal_could_cost_states_10_percent_of_purse_value_123
Just google HISA and 10%….several articules and responses….because the link will take too much time to clear.
Thanks, John. The link came up just fine. But I also googled those search terms and the only relevant result was that HRN article. Strange that there’s nothing else written in the entire world wide web that attempts to translate the HISA draft proposal regarding funding. And it’s funny how the article starts with “After months of murkiness…” The HRN interpretation is kind of murky itself. But the bottom line is that the authority has to be funded. Who else should be paying but states through racing revenue? Look at all the money that’s been thrown down a rat hole to racing commissions. Those agencies are responsible for the industry’s current condition. Anyway, for those who would rather not deal with HRN’s popups, here’s the first section of the article:
>>After months of murkiness over how it would be financed, the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority’s latest proposed regulations included rules for determining how much each racing state will have to pay the authority every year. The proposal could end up costing commissions the equivalent of up to 10 percent of their state’s purse values.
According to the proposed regulation, each state commission’s contribution will be determined by adding up the state’s annual covered racing starts, a number which would be calculated by adding 50 percent of the state’s projected starts plus 50 percent of its projected purse starts. A state’s maximum allocation would be 10 percent of its total purses for covered races.
“The Authority shall allocate the calculation due from each State… proportionally by each State’s respective percentage of the Annual Covered Racing Starts,” the proposed regulations said.
If a state were calculated to owe more than the proposed 10 percent of purses, the extra money owed would be added on to the allocation from other states that did not go over the maximum.
A representative for the HISA authority did not respond to an inquiry as to whether the money is supposed to come out of purses or if state racing authorities need to find the funds in other ways. They also did not answer if the authority has any guess as to what its total budget could be.
With all due respect Mr. Goggin, I do not feel that you can have it both ways. Baffert’s accusations that the NYRA is shutting him out because some members of the board are tired of his trainees shutting out their horses just does not hold water if your argument about the HISA and USADA boards having members who do represent the interests of horse racing.
Several years ago the argument was made that if Thoroughbred Horse racing in the United States was not capable or showed no interest in cleaning up the doping or making race tracks safer for both horse and jockey that there would be intervention by a government agency and that is exactly what happened.
The owner of the track in Santa Anita only paid attention to the need for enhanced doping policies and track safety after the deaths of over 30 Thoroughbreds in a few weeks time.
Believe what you want, but the “victim” in all of this is the horse who has absolutely no say as to what he or she is injected with.
Many of the drugs both prescribed, compounded un house or sold over the counter are used off label and are not approved for use in horses with recommendations as to dosage, length of use and drug interactions and reactions.
Who determines the dosage” Is it the vet or the trainer or trainer’s assistant?
It resonates with me that a lot of people (not all) in this sport and industry are out to protect their piece of the pie at all costs.
All regulations come with a cost to administer. So who pays these fees? Who pays for the drug tests? There are only so many ways that revenue can be raised….taxes, increase in entry fees, from purse money or deductions from the handle (bets).
A lot of people talk a good talk about cleaning up the sport, but when push comes to shove, no one wants their little piece of the pie to pay the bills.
It may not happen in my lifetime but the handwriting is on the wall….horse racing as we have known it since Colonial America will cease to exist if the sport is not cleaned up.
Hello Steve and all. Thanks for the pedigree analysis. I am seeing the same as you have for the ones I have researched so far.
For some reason I am really liking Zandon and his bottom pedigree is one reason one. Think it is loaded with stamina.
Tiz the Bomb, Emmanuel and Papacap still in my top tier. Pappacap might be a late bloomer like his sire was. Only time will tell of course.
Condolences to the connections for Leslie’s Lady who crossed over this morning at age 26. Per Blood Horse she died peacefully and on her own terms. One of the best broodmares in the past 20 years in my opinion.
Mr. H,
As usually your weekly undertaking to produce this compilation is appreciated.
I am still amiss why Markhamian hasn’t made it to your KOTD category. Unless you have some background information that he isn’t being pointed to the KD. His omission is questionable.
From a speed perspective, the colt has it in abundance. See Below:
MSW 6 1/2F – He sat a1L of fractions of 22.04; 44.97; 1:09.64 before taking the lead and widening to win by 4 1/2L in 1:16.49
Pasco 7F – He led under pressure in fractions of 22.22; 44.86; 1:09.67. He was headed whilst hard ridden approaching the turn and crowded by the 1st and 2nd Favorites at the top of the lane and he had extra energy to repel both and move away from an easy 2 1/2L win in 1:23.23. What made his Pasco victory even more classy, is the fact that he was hard ridden from 4 1/2F out and never showed any sigh of fatigue from the blistering factions. This colt has displayed exceptional speed in his last two starts. Does he have the pedigree to carry said speed? His omission from your list might very well be based on stamina. If so, then I respectfully disagree.
His sire Social Inclusion established a NTR for 8 1/2F at Gulfstream Park. So, Markhamian could have inherited his speed form his sire. However, Social Inclusion was more than just fast. His sire by Pioneerof the Nile was the 2009 KD runner up and sire of TC winner American Pharoah. Social Inclusion’s dam was sired by Saint Ballardo who was sire of BCC winner Saint Liam. Saint Ballardo was a son of Halo who sired KD winners Sunday Silence and Sunny’s Halo. There is clearly an excellent source stamina in the pedigree of Social Inclusion.
Markhamain’s dam sire Colonel Joh was sired by 2times BCC winner Tiznow. Colonel John was 6th in the KD and won the SA Derby and Travers. There can be no question regarding stamina from Colonel Jonh. Markhamain’s 2nd dam was sired by Meadowlake who is not considered a stamina influence. However, Meadowlake was by Hold Your Peace whose sire, Speak Joh and grandsire Prince John were both year-end leading brooding sires. Meadowlake was produced from a Raise A Native mare. No elaboration necessary with the exploits of RAN’s sons in the breeding shed.
The Pasco winner was from a book od 41 mares bred resulting in 26 live foals. Many foals from small books have emerged as Derby winners. The likes of Mine That Bird, Medina Spirit and Big Brown immediately come to mid. The stanina in Markhamain’s pedigree doesn’t hump out at you.But its there in sufficient quantity ot successfully negotiate 10F.
In the end I might be making a case for a colt that doesn’t deserve to be in either category. But if the maiden Commanperfornce can be ranked at #9. Markhamian certainly deserves a look.
You dont have to repeat yourself. I simply forgot. I’ll catch up on him next week. Dont take it personally.
lol
Great work, Steve. Lots to consider after reading your detailed review of the Derby prospects. Tiz the Bomb’s dirt potential is, for me, the biggest question. I don’t know what to make of McPeek explaining (in your words) that, “the colt just landed on the turf because the schedule fit and he wanted to keep him separated from his other top 2-year-olds.” There are plenty of opportunities for 2-year-olds to race on dirt and not compete against stablemates, and if you look at the race dates of his top colts you don’t see many places where there could have been timing conflicts. Then look at TTB’s schedule: an early debut in May on the dirt (5f), where he finished 7th; then in July, a mile MSW at Ellis taken off the turf that he won by the length of the airport runway next door; and he finished the year with three turf stakes concluding with the BCJT. That just doesn’t add up to a confident dirt/Derby plan after winning the Ellis Park race so convincingly.
Is it possible that the folks at CD knew that something was amiss with Oviatt Class and that’s why he was excluded from KDFW2? That would be the only reasonable explanation for the glaring omission. Oh…I’m still chuckling from reading your paragraph on the “immigration” issues concerning the Baffert trainees.
I’m glad at least one person gets my warped sense of humor. I try to use offbeat analogies to make it more entertaining reading, but it never goes anywhere.
I dont protect trainers from themselves anymore. I just write what they say. I like Kenny so what the heck. I find it’s always the same with 2 year old grass horses. There are no races for them in the winter and spring, so try the dirt. I wish trainers would say that. They have no other place to run them, so lets see if we have a Derby horse. I feel he will handle the dirt just fine.
Doug O’Neill was asked what makes him decide on racing his 2yos on turf, and he said because Bob runs his horses on the dirt, and he doesn’t want to start out a horse vs those beasts
Hey, Matthew. Did O’Neill say when it was that he decided on that strategy? I’ll Have Another and Nyquist didn’t race on the turf. Hot Rod Charlie did have two turf races in his 2nd and 3rd starts, but he broke his maiden on the dirt in his 4th start and immediately went to the BCJ.
Hi Steve – I bet on TIZ The Bomb at 10-1 in KDFW2 to win, also boxing him with the field and Zandon. The Holy Bull is coming up loaded with the likes of Zandon, Tiz The Bomb,Giant Game and Mo Donegal targeting the race. This will be a stiff test for Zandon but IMO he should be up for the challenge and be ready to fire a big shot. Both of my KDFW horses are running in the Holy Bull. I’d love to see a Zandon/TIZ the Bomb exacta. Thrilled to get Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1.
Those are awesome odds. Good luck
If you think 55 people in the winner’s circle is impressive, just wait to see what happens if Chasing Time wins the Rebel! I just booked my hotel and bought a ticket, fingers crossed that he makes the race!
IM ALL ABOARD THE VINCO TRAIN When he was weaving in and out of the lane from one side to the other , like no big deal , he is a serious racehorse.
Just too far behind. Might have had an outside shot if he won that race, but even that would be pushing it. Definitely one to watch down the road.
I agree but you have to admit that getting stopped on your first race and dropping back 13 lengths and somehow weaving thru traffic to get up for second showed this colt is a fighter and one to watch out for. Let’s not forget Jystify started this late and if the colt hadn’t got stopped , he may have won by open lengths
I agree. But Justify was able to run in a mile allowance race against winners before going big-time. This guy has to find another maiden race unless they skip a maiden race. Not impossible but do you want to rush a young horse to make the Derby and risk his future? We’ll see. Justify was a big strapping 17 hands colt and physically developed far beyond his years. Baffert knew he was a freak from day one and was thinking Derby before he ever ran.
So I made a couple of win and exacta bets on Zandon in the Ky Derby pool 2. I am also intrigued by Tiz The Bomb and the action he got in getting bet down to 9-1. I was able to get a futures bet on Tiz The Bomb yesterday at 45-1. Thank you for your hard work and analysis on the top horses. I eagerly await Mondays for everything you have to say.
Wow, 45-1. Thats more reasonable than 9-1. Someone bet the heck out of him. I think you have a live ticket
Steve Haskin-
Thanks for the Kentucky Derby Rankings Week 2. The KD information has more depth and perception than any other available source. It’s the one that I depend on.
Don’t mean to nitpick but the Silverbulletday race was run at a distance of 1 mile and seventy yards, while the LeComte was run at a distance of 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds. That would explain the descrepancy in final times of the two races.
Look forward to your horse racing comments in the coming weeks. Thank you.
7.5 Furlongs
Sorry about that. I took that out. I need to pay more attention to the other divisions
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing a pedigree analysis on your top 16 contenders, which must have taken a lot of research on your part.
You mentioned Oviatt Class and White Abarrio were dropped due to lack of work, but made no reference to Tarfalgar being dropped, who was 16th in Week 1, and he did not appear in your KOTD segment this week. All thing considered, I thought Trafalgar ran a decent race in the Lecomte, hitting the board to round out the super.
With respect to Simplification (#10), I was disappointed to read the owner might wait for the Florida Derby to run him next.
I was hoping he would run in the FOY, but it appears the owner is calling the shots, not the trainer.
On Saturday, I placed a $100.00 win wager on Simplification, and boxed him with the field in a $2.00 exacta wager, in Derby Futures Pool 2. He closed at 43-1, which I was pleased with.
I was discouraged to read your comment on Joe, “I doubt the Derby is in his plans”. We’ll have to wait and see how that goes.
Thanks for all you do Steve
Trafalgar ran OK but dint make enough of an impact to remain in the Top 16. I have some inquiries in to some of his connections and decided to wait until I hear their thoughts before jumping to any conclusions about his performance. There is always next week. Being dropped because of no works has nothing to do with Trafalgar.
I said I doubt the Derby was in Joe’s plans because Maryland horses almost never run in the Derby. And if he was being considered why run him in an allowance race at Laurel and not the Withers at Aqueduct in 2 weeks. Maryland has no points races at all. I didnt say he wasnt being considered I just said I doubt he is. Just an opinion.
I was going to move Simplification up a few places but I also wasnt thrilled he may wait for the Florida Derby, although if its because of his Thoro-Graph numbers I can understand the reasoning. That big a jump spells bounce and the need for time to recover. But thats certainly not the way I would go.
Fingers crossed that the owner changes his/her mind about that 9 week wait on Simplification!
Thanks for the reply Steve, your points are well taken. The Derby trail is long one, with a lot of bumps along the way. Eventually, the cream of this year’s crop will rise to the top, and provide a clearer picture, moving forward, to the first Saturday in May.
Currently, my top contender is Rattle N Roll, who was so impressive in winning the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. He looked like the second coming of Gunnevera in that race. As you mentioned, “he has a great combination of stamina and speed top and bottom.” As Big Joe Turner would say, shake “Rattle N Roll”. 🙂
Huge price in the Future Wager.
Yes indeed, I bet $100.00 to win on RNR, at Circa (Vegas) at 33-1, back in December (23rd). I was happy to see that three furlong work, in 36 seconds flat. He appears he’s completely healed from that hoof issue.
In regard to Joe, Trombetta entered Win Win Win in the Pasco Stakes on 1/19/19 (which WWW won by 7 lengths) after three impressive races at Laurel. WWW followed up with good runs in the TB Derby and the Blue Grass, and a 10th-place finish in the Ky Derby. Maybe Trombetta wants to wait a month to throw Joe in with stakes-quality runners. I think it’s possible that Joe could be in a points race in 4 to 6 weeks.
I hope you’re right EddieF. Joe’s pedigree, top and bottom, is the personification of stamina influence, IMO.
Hopefully, Trombetta will take a shot in a Derby prep race, just to see how he stacks up with some of the major players on the Derby trail.
Liked WWW.
Bill, see my reply to Steve at the very bottom of the comment section. I have a feeling that it’s the FOY not the Florida Derby that’s the plan for Simplification.
Despite the upset in the Lecomte, the 3YO picture now seems LESS confusing to me — no doubt because of your thorough analysis of these 16 horses and the ones to watch, Steve. Knowing which horses are working and which aren’t is also a major “flag” as you put it, because it is almost February, the month when the Trail starts getting hot.
Smile Happy really does seem to have all the goods and is a fitting No. 1. Thanks to you, I’m now more intrigued with Tiz the Bomb. Can’t wait to see him perform on dirt.
I have Simplification rated No. 2, but all the rest are in a “show me more” state. Good thing so many great races are up next weekend!
Once again, thanks for the insightful analysis.
He was going to be moved up, but 9 weeks is an awful long time between races and he’s nver been two turns. It may wok out because he probably needs time to recover from 14 1/2 to a 2 1/2 leap. But we’ll see.
Steve, the Florida Derby is scheduled for April 2. That’s 13 weeks, by my calculation, from Simplification’s January 1 stakes race. Seems ridiculous to me even considering the Thoro-Graph numbers. I can’t really think of a race on January 1 as a 3yo event, so basically the colt would have just one true prep going into the Derby. We all know how that works out.
I’m now thinking you meant to write “Fountain of Youth Stakes” rather than “Florida Derby” in your KOTD comments. The FOY is 9 weeks from the Mucho Macho Man Stakes.
Not KOTD. The reference is to the Simplification paragraph.
Hey EddieF
Simplification’s owner mentioned a 2 month rest, before his next race, in which case the FOY would meet that schedule. As you mentioned, the Florida Derby is 3 months down the road, so yes, I’m inclined to agree with you that the FOY would seem to be the way to go here. Hopefully, Steve will provide clarification on Simplification’s next start, (FOY and/or the Fla. Derby).
Thanks for posting.