Derby Rankings: Week 2
Lots of activity this week, with some eye-popping performances, and lots of movement in the Top 12, as we await next week’s Holy Bull and Robert B. Lewis Stakes, which should bring more major changes. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 2, Jan. 25
By Steve Haskin
1. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
He’s up to five furlongs in his works, as he prepares for his 3-year-old debut, most likely in the Risen Star Stakes February 13. I mentioned last week his inordinate amount of inbreeding, and I really don’t know what to make of his pedigree. His dam is a half-sister to 2-year-old champion filly Folklore, but Folklore is by stamina influence Tiznow, as opposed to Elusive Quality. And Delightful Quality was a pure sprinter with an aversion to winning, placing in seven stakes with no stakes victories. But if you follow the Thoro-Graph numbers, he is on a great pattern, going from a “9” to a “5” to a “3 1/4,” so he is already fast enough, but keeps moving forward with fairly significant jumps and has a lot more room for improvement. He certainly doesn’t run as if distance should be a problem, but we’ll see when they start going a mile and an eighth. Worthy No. 1 at this time, but that spot is open for someone to take it. So far no one has come close.
2. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
For this horse to finish two lengths and then a half-length behind Caddo River going seven furlongs each time tells you that he has more speed than you would think. And his maiden victory was boosted when the second and third-place finishers both came back and ran huge in a 1 1/16-mile race at Gulfstream Saturday. We mentioned last week what a great Thoro-Graph pattern he is on, but it is important to note that his Brisnet speed figures have also climbed steadily from 84 to 88 to 92 to 97 and his late pace figure of 110 in his last start is the fastest of all the horses in the Future Wager field you. And you can say he is also the most consistent closer speed-wise, having run a 106 late pace figure in his previous race. Right now he just needs to be tested for class and that will come in the February 6 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, as McGaughey is willing to ship up to New York to run him at a mile and an eighth and not have to contend with the often speed-favoring track at Gulfstream. Taking a shot putting a maiden winner this high, but he has run well against top competition, should only get better the farther he goes, and I can’t find and flaws in him.
3. Senor Buscador (Todd Fincher, Mineshaft – Rose’s Desert, by Desert God)
In 2018 I was following a New Mexico-based horse on the Derby trail owned by the Peacock family named Runaway Ghost, a son of Ghostzapper who was impressive winning the Sunland Derby but never made it to the big race. His dam Rose’s Desert, by five-time leading New Mexico-based sire Desert God was so successful as a racehorse, winning seven black type races and earning over $600,000, that when she was retired, 86-year-old Joe Peacock and his son Joe Jr. decided to disperse all their other mares and put all their efforts into making Rose’s Desert a successful broodmare by breeding her top Kentucky stallions. It looked as if they had hit pay dirt with Runaway Ghost, but even with him off the Derby trail they still had a 2-year-old colt by Curlin and a yearling by Ghostzapper waiting in the wings. At the time they were awaiting the birth of a Mineshaft foal who was due on April 22. Rose’s Desert finally gave birth to a colt on May 6, one day after Justify won the Kentucky Derby. The Peacocks joked that it was a good omen that she waited until Derby weekend. Sadly, Joe Peacock Sr. passed away last September at age 88, but that Mineshaft foal, named Senor Buscador, has put the family back on the Derby trail.
4. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, Laoban – Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
For a horse who is supposed to be a plodder he sure opened the eyes of the Oaklawn clockers when he worked five workings in a bullet 1:00 flat, fastest of 40 works at the distance. It worked out perfectly for him, as he saw a horse about six or seven lengths in front of him, which gave him a perfect target. He came home his last quarter in a sizzling :23 flat before galloping out six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 and pulling up seven furlongs in 1:26 4/5. That is one serious work. He will be at a disadvantage going against some fast, classy horses in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes February 15, but that is just stepping stone to much more important preps down the line. However, it is time he starts getting faster, as his last Thoro-Graph figure of “6” is not going to get it done and was a slight drop (from 5 3/4) from his previous start, and his Brisnet figure plummeted from a 98 to a 92. His female family is not particularly strong and his sire line is borderline speed and stamina, but he does get class and stamina from his broodmare sire Victory Gallop. I am keeping up here based on his strong and consistent stretch runs against top-class company, but as his competition gets faster he is going to need to keep up and make some serious progress on his speed figures.
5. Caddo River (Brad Cox, Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats)
If you want to know what it’s like to throttle down the engine, just watch this colt going a half-mile in :47 and three-quarters in 1:12 2/5, which is slow motion for him, and then see what he does when you give just a slight tap on the gas pedal. Now that he’s gotten two turns out of the way we have to take his powerhouse 10 1/4-length romp in the Smarty Jones Stakes seriously. This colt’s high cruising speed and the ability to carry it a distance of ground is reminiscent of his sire, who rattled off a wicked :46 1/5 half in the 2007 Kentucky Derby and still ran a game second to Street Sense, finishing almost six lengths ahead of Curlin in third. We mentioned last week how fast and athletic this horse is, and he continues to do things effortlessly running at high speeds. He also showed he can relax early and doesn’t need to go :44 or :45 halfs as he had been doing sprinting. With that said, this was far from a strong field, but the runner-up Cowan is a talented colt who was coming off a good second in the Springboard Mile, and although he had a rough trip early in the Smarty Jones, having to check sharply going into the first turn, he still finished 7 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse. With Caddo River’s speed, agility, and his ability to keep generating power throughout a race, he is not a horse you want tangle with, at least not now.
6. Life is Good (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
As in the first Derby Future Wager in November, he still is held in high regard, despite a less than spectacular victory in the Sham Stakes. We discussed why his race in the Sham was far better than it looked, as he paired up his brilliant “2 3/4″ Thoro-Graph figures and dropped slightly from 100 to 98 on his Brisnet speed figures, which in a way was a positive. His 100 figure was the second fastest of all the Future Wager horses and had he run faster in the Sham he might have been in danger of running too fast too soon. As we saw with Authentic last year, you have to nurture the Into Mischiefs and try to harness their speed a bit if you want them to be effective going a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. As it is, Baffert realizes he needs to slow this colt down, so we really don’t know how far he will carry his speed. Authentic lucked out last year with the Derby being run in September, and as we saw in the Haskell, he likely would not have been ready physically and mentally to run his best race in May. Perhaps the same can be said of Life is Good. For now he stays up here but I believe Baffert may have bigger guns in his arsenal that just need to start firing, one of whom is mentioned in Knocking on the Door and has started.
7. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
He worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 in company with Spielberg and you normally don’t see Baffert working his Derby horses together. Medina Spirit sat a half-length off his stablemate and got the better of him in the final furlong to finish a half-length in front, despite going slightly the easier of the two with his rider never moving his hands. Even being on the outside he opened up by two lengths on the gallop-out. Baffert still hasn’t decided if he will run both horses in the January 30 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and it would seem too early for him to start shipping out of town. Medina Spirit, who as we mentioned ran too good a race in the Sham Stakes to be sent to Saudi Arabia for their Derby, is moving in the right direction on his speed figures, jumping from a “9 1/2″ to a “3 1/4” on Thoro-Graph and 94 to 97 on Brisnet, and even with a sire and broodmare sire not many have heard of he should have no problem stretching out in distance.
8. Smiley Sobotka (Dale Romans, Brody’s Cause – Dance Thewayyouare, by Mineshaft)
Talk about a lack of respect. Churchill Downs puts a horse in the Future Wager field who has never started and leaves off this guy who was a close second in their own Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to the top-class Keepmeinmind. The Albaugh family, who owns the colt, has had some bad luck on the Derby trail and this would seem like the right horse to finally end that. He was named after principal owner Dennis Albaugh’s best friend Mike Sobotka, who died of a heart attack last summer. He was remembered as a person who was a joy to be around, always laughing and smiling. Derby gods, are you listening? This horse has four Belmont Stakes winners and a Jockey Club Gold Cup winner in his first four generations and his sire is inbred to English Derby winner Roberto, so distance will not be a question. And he has the tactical speed you like to see in a Derby horse and will carry it as far as he needs to. But like everyone coming out of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he will have to improve big-time off his less-than-stellar “8 1/4″ Thoro-Graph number.
9. Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker)
OK, I know it makes no sense to put him ahead of Midnight Bourbon and Proxy and an Into Mischief over a Tiznow and Tapit. But he took all the worst of it in the LeComte, racing wide every step of the way and then getting herded badly by Proxy the last eighth of a mile and winding up out near the middle of the track, but still came home as fast as the victorious Midnight Bourbon, and his “4” on Thoro-Graph was a full point and a half faster than the winner. What I like about him is his professionalism. In his debut he had to knife his way through horses and then alter course in the stretch through a :45 4/5 half before shoving another horse out of his way and winning under a hand ride. In his next start he had to circle his field four wide and eased clear in the final 50 yards. He has a great eye and is very alert and carries his legs under him perfectly with a smooth easy stride. He just has a look of class about him. Juddmonte bred his first three dams and he traces to a classy C.V. Whitney family that goes back to his eighth generation. He also has the major class and stamina influence His Majesty, a full-brother to Graustark, by Ribot, three times in his pedigree. Add to that, having Danehill, Fappiano, and El Gran Senor in his fourth generation just adds to the stamina needed to balance out the speed he gets from Into Mischief. We’ll give him a slight nod for now and see what happens when they go longer.
10. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
Last year marked the end of the New England Patriots’ 20-year dynasty. What does that have to do with Midnight Bourbon? The Lecomte Stakes winner is by Tiznow, and it was Patriots coach Bill Belichick showing his mediocre team a replay of Tiznow winning the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic to impress upon them what courage and determination can accomplish that inspired the team to go on that year and win its first of six Super Bowls. What better time for Midnight Bourbon to win the Super Bowl of horse racing than the year following his sire’s retirement from stud duty 20 years after he helped inspire a dynasty. Midnight Bourbon has a beautiful way of moving with the look of a true distance horse. He did have all the best of it in the LeComte, but took advantage of the rail by going to the lead and pretty much controlling the race, which has not been his style of running. Setting a slow pace he was able to come home in :24 2/5 and :06 1/5. His first four races were all at a mile, so he has plenty of foundation under him. He is a half-brother to Haskell winner Girvin with a stronger stamina influence on the sire’s side. After pairing up “8s” on Thoro-Graph in his previous two starts he made a nice jump to a “5 1/2″ in the LeComte. I still don’t know what his best running style is, but we at least know that he can be opportunistic if the pace warrants it. I would expect to see him return to his off-the-pace style of running.
11. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
Stablemates Prime Factor and Mutasaabeq both made the top 23 in the Future Wager field, but this colt is the one who is under the radar in the Pletcher barn. He has the pedigree to run all the day, good tactical speed, a good foundation with two 1 1/8-mile races under him, and he has already been in a dogfight with the top-class Greatest Honour and come out on top. Throw out his well-beaten third in the Remsen when he appeared to detest slop and you have a well-bred colt in good hands who seems to have all the tools. He showed his sharpness, working a bullet five furlongs in :59 4/5 in company with the brilliant maiden winner Prime Factor. If he shows up in the Holy Bull and the track is fast I would expect a big performance. He has a lot of bottom under him and as I mentioned last week he should improve as the distances stretch out.
12. Proxy (Michael Stidham, Tapit – Panty Raid, by Include)
It is very rare to rank three horses from the same race, but this is a “what have you done for me lately” year when every performance is like a swinging door with horses constantly coming and going. In the case of the LeComte, the first three finishers all were impressive and inseparable. Proxy could have a bright future, but watching his races has been a study in frustration. For some reason, in his last three races his two jockeys continued to hit him left-handed in the stretch despite the colt showing his total disdain for the whip by shying badly from it, and one time reacting so strongly he jumped onto his left lead. Even with a jockey switch in the LeComte, he was hit continuously left handed even though he kept drifting out to the middle of the track, carrying Mandaloun with him. In his allowance victory, it was only a four-horse field, but he hit the side of the gate at the break, was under constant pressure, first from the outside, then had a horse slip through on the inside to take the lead. He battled back to regain the lead, but was challenged again, turned that back as well and drew clear to win by 2 1/2 lengths. This horse is a warrior, but we won’t know how good he really is until his riders stop hitting him left handed.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
I was going to make it a Top 15 this week, but simply had too many horses to fill the last three spots, mainly Capo Kane, who was in the Top 12 last week, Jackie’s Warrior, stablemates Hot Rod Charlie and The Great One, and Spielberg, who has beaten The Great One twice, the last by the slimmest head bob.
CAPO KANE had his first work back since his impressive Jerome rout, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 4/5, as he prepares for a likely start in the Withers, where he will attempt to stretch out to a mile and an eighth. His Thoro-Graph jump from a “10 1/2″ to a “5 1/2” in the Jerome shows he is moving in the right direction and making rapid progress. But if you follow Brisnet figures he does have to improve off his 87 last time out. Here is another horse with Hard Spun in his pedigree who looks like he can carry his speed a long way. And it’s not every day to see a horse’s sire and broodmare sire who ran 1, 2 in the Kentucky Derby.
JACKIE’S WARRIOR was the only 2-year-old last year who ran a negative Thoro-Graph number something you rarely see. We saw what his speed can do in the Hopeful, Champagne and Saratoga Special when he ran his opponents off their feet. But when faced with a rabbit in the BC Juvenile who set blazing fractions he was forced to come from off the pace and showed he was not as effective, but did run a big race getting beat 3 1/4 lengths and still running hard to the wire. The word from the barn is that he is not speed crazy at all and is a very smart horse, and they are throwing out the Breeders’ Cup. I love his demeanor and his classy presence. He’s been working steadily and easily and we’ll just see how he progresses from 2 to 3.
I admit I have no idea what to make of THE GREAT ONE and SPIELBERG. I don’t believe the latter is considered one of Baffert’s best and The Great One’s 14-length romp in a mile maiden race Saturday with first-tme Lasix is open to interpretation. Yes, he looked spectacular, but he had only three unproven opponents. One had no shot and was never a factor, the favored first-time starter Fenway ran into the proverbial brick wall at the five-sixteenths pole and staggered home last beaten 30 lengths, and Affable stumbled badly at the start and was spent by the quarter pole. So you can say The Great One basically was in a walkover the last part of it and came home his final quarter in a slow :26 3/5. There simply was no one running behind him. Yes, I believe he is a good horse with a bright future, but I just need to see more. As for HOT ROD CHARLIE, he ran lights out in the BC Juvenile at 94-1 coming off a neck maiden victory, but with his sprint-oriented female family I might as well just wait until next week to see how he runs in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes before moving him into the Top 12.
Because of several other performances worthy of stepping into the Top 12, we have put the two first-out maiden winners PRIME FACTOR and ROMAN CENTURIAN in Knocking on the Door this week to join AMOUNT, PRATE, and a few others until they beat winners or run well in stakes. We made our point last week concerning Prime Factor and Roman Centurian by putting them in the Top 12 and now it is time for them to take that next big step. I still think just as highly of them now as I did last week and expect both to return to the Rankings in their next start, which should be soon for Prime Factor after working a bullet five furlongs in :59 4/5 in company with the No. 11 ranked horse Known Agenda. A more accomplished Pletcher horse, MUTASAABEQ, turned in a sharp half-mile work in :47 1/5 and he, too, is right on the edge of the Top 12 or 15.
Speaking of first-out maiden winners, what in the world did trainer Brendan Walsh unleash on the Derby trail at Gulfstream Saturday? If you want a freakish performance to blow you away just watch the way PREVALENCE demolished his field in a common gallop going seven furlongs. After working a swift half-mile in :47 2/5 at Palm Meadows back on December 28, he was put on the grass for a couple of easy works and then blew out three furlongs in :36 4/5. Walsh’s best kept secret of the year at 7-1 then went out and had eyes popping with his 8 1/2-length stroll in the park, in which he bounded clear under wraps with Tyler Gafflione looking back. Unfortunately, it will be very tricky trying to get more than three starts in him before the Derby, and Godolphin does have the early Derby favorite in Essential Quality, as well as LeComte runner-up Proxy, so no need to push him. Ironically, the only horse to win the Derby with three career starts and not having started at 2 was Justify, whose half-brother, Stage Raider, was a well-beaten second to Prevalence the co-favorite.
The word obviously was out on a Baffert horse named BEZOS, who it was said could be something special. But as it turns out there was no desire by his camp to publicize the horse at that time. So what happens? Bezos shows up as one of the 23 horses in the second Kentucky Derby Future Wager field. Oh, did I happen to mention that Bezos has never started? I guess Churchill Downs had difficulty finding a 23rd horse that was a more appealing betting prospect, because he was also listed as the co-fifth choice. He did work a bullet five-eighths this week in :59 2/5, fastest of 33 works at the distance, and could indeed be something special, but he is way behind. Churchill also has maiden winner OLYMPIAD in the field of 23, but hopefully you didn’t wager on him, as he is on the shelf according to Bill Mott.
Now, if you’re looking to get in on the ground floor of a potential Baffert skyscraper who has at least run once, keep a close eye on CONCERT TOUR. This son of Street Sense, owned and bred by the Wests, could wind up as one of his best ones if not the best. He showed all the signs of a top horse when he broke his maiden first out going six furlongs. Joel Rosario had a handful of horse the whole way and let him coast to the lead on his own and never touched him in the stretch. He drew off from a highly promising Munnings colt named Mr. Impossible with his ears pricked to win by 3 1/2 lengths, geared down the final sixteenth with Rosario looking back for competition. He then galloped out very strong and had Rosario pulling back on the reins to slow him down. What I also loved was how straight he ran in the stretch, never even slightly moving off his path. Baffert will move him up in distance gradually, pointing for the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes February 7. The bettors obviously are believers, as he was only 14-1 in the Future Wager on Sunday.
As alluded to earlier, ANOTHER DUKE, coming off a third to Greatest Honour, broke his maiden at Gulfstream Saturday in fine fashion, but it was DYNAMIC ONE, second to Greatest Honour, who was much the best, going six-wide into the first turn from the disastrous 11-post and then making an eye-catching wide move on the far turn to battle for the lead four wide. He couldn’t sustain it for good reason and had to settle for fourth, beaten two lengths. If you’re looking for a real early sleeper for the Derby, this is my hidden gem of the year so far. With his amazing pedigree and explosive turn of foot I believe this could be a legit Derby horse who could even run well in stakes company next time if they decide not to bother with maiden races anymore.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED, impressive winner of the 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist Stakes last fall, has had a pair of breezes at Palm Meadows for Chad Brown and is scheduled to make his 3-year-old debut in the one-mile Gotham Stakes March 6. Brown is cautiously optimistic he can get a distance of ground, but acknowledges you never know with the Into Mischiefs. Brown said Champagne runner-up REINVESTMENT RISK just arrived at his barn and likely will be pointed to one-turn races.
If you’re wondering how BC Juvenile Turf winner FIRE AT WILL will take to the dirt he worked a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 flat. GET HER NUMBER, who hasn’t run since his victory in the American Pharoah Stakes, finally returned to work tab this week, breezing an easy three furlongs in :38 4/5. One California horse who has been working brilliantly is the Doug O’Neill-trained maiden winner WIPE THE SLATE, who went five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 and followed that up with a strong six-furlong work in a bullet 1:12 3/5. We will see him in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, along with his stablemate Hot Rod Charlie and perhaps late-closing ROMBAUER, who worked five furlongs in 1:02 1/5. Another impressive first-out maiden winner, DEFEATER, turned in a sparkling five-furlong bullet work in :59 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
Not many horses have been working better than Aqueduct maiden winner WEYBURN, who will make his stakes debut in next Sunday’s seven-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, as trainer Jimmy Jerkens is going old school by moving him up gradually in distance. He will also nominate the son of Pioneerof the Nile to the Withers Stakes just as a back-up plan. Weyburn is bred to run all day. The six sires in his second and third generations have won eight Triple Crown races and three Breeders’ Cup Classics.
Capo Kane appears to be the horse to beat in the Withers Stakes, at Aqueduct, on Feb. 6th. His pedigree suggests going long should be right up his alley. His sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer which has been quite successful in producing winners of Triple Crown races, (19 at last count).
bad signs……i do not like him…..
Hello Steve, you sure were right about Greatest Honour. He certainly looks like the real deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shug points him to the FLA Derby because he said 1 1/8 would suit him better than 1 1/16 of FOY. I hope GH bypasses the FOY because I am eager to see how Fire at Will will do in the FOY. He is training well at GP and even though he has a turf pedigree IMO he could be something special.
Of the 6 2021 KD preps contented to date 4 were won by last out MSW winners
Jerome – Capo Kane – Last out MSW winner
Lecomte – Midnight Bourbon- 2nd Iroquois; 3rd Champagne
Smarty Jones – Casso River -Last out MSW winner
Sham – Life Is Good – Last out MSW winner
Bob Lewis – Medina Spirit – 2nd Sham
Holy Bull – Greatest Honor – Last out MSW winner
The three G1 2YO winners have not yet made their 3YO debut.. Are the above winners capable of defeating the likes of Essential Quality, Jackie’s Warrior and Get Her Number. The aforementioned 3 should have undergone additional maturity.
Bezos getting ready to start….have been hearing lots about Bezos—Bob waited because of his size–wanted him to grow into his frame some, and he has gone thru Bob’s older horses, beating them up!
he HAD setbacks……..i have been the one touting that he looks the best of his ……..but derby?……doubt how that can happen….
Ok…what were they? I only know the horse from a guy who has been around the track, I’m not around the track….guy said he is big, and was not ready, didn’t elaborate about setbacks, if you know more then say it, I’m always looking for more info…
I was surprised to hear Medina got a higher Beter than Greatest. .both under 90…..loved Roman….first time winners, tiring surface and this guy is one of the ones who will get the 10th furlong on first Saturday in May!!!!!
Beyer–not Beter!
medina 91….
Steve, will 6 of your top 12 come from two races (Lecomte & HB) with 3-horse finishes? 🙂
Sometimes I read a comment that leads me to conclude that I know very little about analyzing races. One such comment is below:
“Medina Spirit is the real deal. He had absolutely no right to win that race after setting such a wicked pace. ”
My take on the race is quite different. Not that it matters as my head serves only separate my ears.
(a) Which entrant was the ML/Post time favorite?
(b) Which entrant won?
(c) Aren’t favorites expected to overcame all challenges?
(d) Which of the top 3 finishers had the shortest route to the finish line?
All the comments about the colt pulling himself up; the pricking of the ears and its resoluteness, I consider insignificant. The even money favorite did what it had to do to win. That’s why its was the post time favorite.
Roman Centurion broke his maiden over 8 1/2F on a track labeled as fast in 1:44.88. Hot Rod Charlie finished 2nd by 1L to Essentially Quality BCJ over the same distance completed in 1:42.09. The final time for the BL was 1:46.26.
Did the surface at SA Park on Saturday favor horses on or near the the lead? Was it a fair surface for closers?
When closers are recording times that are 1 1/2 and 4 seconds slower than their previous efforts for a distance.. There can be no doubt that the surface played a significant role.
I was very confident Roman Centurian would have defeated Medina Spirit. Because I am of the opinion he is the better of the 2 colt. He had to close a 7L deficit from last, whilst under urging. Such a deficit might not have appeared big. However, on such a deep tiring surface, ever stride is significantly more energy sapping. He had to be piloted 4W for his stretch run and was lugging in under right hand whipping. In fact, he might have made contact with Hot Rod Charlie.
Two of the Top 3 finishers previously finished 2nd to the #1 & #2 colts in the country. Roman Centurian was making his stakes debut on a surface, that given his running style, placed him at major disadvantage. He finished ahead of the BCJ runner up; inches away from defeating the Sham runner up and the overwhelming focus is on Medina Spirit.
The Bobo Baffert mania knows no bounds
Time will tell which of the 3 colts will emerge as superior. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it is Roman Centurian. If Medina Spirit had absolutely no right to win the Bob Lewis. Then Roman Centurion under the conditions had no right to finish where he did.
With all due respect I must just rebut your comments about Baffert’s remarks after Medina Spirit performance in the Rober Lewis Stakes.
First of all, not all the favorites are supposed to win. Otherwise there won’t be betting anymore.
You must understand that even the trainers do not know for sure the real mettle of their trainees until they prove it in the afternoons. That is why Baffert said what he said. He was just pleasantly surprised about the grit shown by Medina Spirit. He even compared him with Silver Charm.
It was obvious that Medina Spirit was about to be overcome by two powerful closers after dispatching two very nagging rivals. What he did is not seen everyday…! And I am not saying he is better or worse than any other horse… this is only established in the fray of the battles…
You are diminishing yourself with your statement “The Bobo Baffert mania knows no bounds” as his comments are common-sense observation of what happened with a very game Medina Spirit. What is mania have to do with anything?????
Your argument is really uncalled for…!
I do not understand why you need to denigrate a horse and/or his trainer to support a horse you like.
There are other websites forbidding comments because of posts that could be sued for defamation. So, as Steve stated (i.e. strict guidelines) there are other sites where you can persist expelling your dislike of certain trainers.
But here the only thing you are achieving is making people bypass any thing written under your pseudonym…
Also tired of the santa anita track…..it is too slow……period……..
And i have to hear how BLAZING the pace was…….people go too much on numbers……the field after 5f…was within 5 lengths….but i have to read how blazing he went early……
No one understands, you can go fast early, but this slow track has a cumulative effect…..apparently…everyone ran super fast?…….no…….fast?….yea…..its what 3 yr olds do…..the AMAZINGLY FAST narrative is bull……he even idled, and started running again when they got to him….
I taught people about the EARS!
AND THE WRONG LEAD was because he slowed
Who said the pace was blazing? A 46 3/5 for the half is moderate. I can amuse children for hours by wiggling my ears. But if I do that, the rest of me goes numb.
I’m very irritated…….not one person or writer or fan………knows what actually happened in cali……..Medina Spirit pulled himself up/idled on turn…..he needs a target………of course he had alot left……he took a huge rest……but its always the “brave”….fighter” “heart”………the horse freaked out ears up twice, went to wrong lead…..and NO ONE saw it…..
Try a hydrocortisone cream.
Yes……the man was right……..i told you…..he DID look great…….i cant bet them all…..Haskin does have a good eye……take it from someone that knows…..
Thank you for bringing Greatest Honour to my attention. Love his pedigree. Cashed a nice win ticket on him today. Looking forward to watching him on the Derby trail.
My Top 10
1 Bezos…. just kidding…Greatest Honour
2 Essential Quality
3 Keepmeinmind
4. Life is Good
5. Medina Spirit
6. Hot Rod Charlie
7. Mandaloun
8. Caddo River
9. Jackie’s Warrior
10. Proxy
The Centurian defeated Hot Rod Charlie in only his 3rd start. HRC was making his 6th start.
Oops. I knew I forgot one! But I wouldn’t likely place him higher than Charlie, who nearly won the BCJ.
1 Essential Quality
2 Greatest Honour
3 Hot Rod Charlie
4 Caddo River
5 Medina Spirit
6 Senor Buscador
7 Roman Centurian
8 Keepmeinmind
9 Mandaloun
10 Jackie’s Warrior
My top 10 … just for the fun of it!!!
I like your Top 10 better than EddieF’s.
no freak?……..i can’t blame you……the horse doesn’t make sense………5 and 3 ……then 12 change…….how does he come home so fast…….and also…..how does he not have highest closing figs?…….Senor Buscador
Horses that come from the back of the pack are often at a disadvantage, so of course I factor that into my handicapping.
i disagree closers are good for the derby……..which people will argue……but i’m right
Steve, you are prescient! (I think I spelled that right). Greatest Honour certainly made a statement, and well deserves a top two ranking in the Derby Rankings.
Very exciting race. Anyone else have concerns about blanket finishes in general and in this race? What do you make of a race like this?
What about triggering a heart attack … You can be scared to death … !
Definitely that! I had no worries, though, as my horse stayed well clear of the top three. LOL
That’s funny.
I thought Roman Centurian had it. But there will be other opportunities. I hope these races cause him to lose some of his bulk. He is big heavy colt.
Heavy colt on a heavy track. Yikes!
So happy for the Derby Dozen articles!
I’m late to the Derby Dozen party here at Secretariat.com LOL
I loved reading Derby Dozen on Bloodhorse.com, so glad that they are continuing here.
So glad you found us, Lauren. Welcome. Feel free to offer your comments and opinions any time.
Santa Anita dirt surface is awfully heavy … the times are quite slow. I don’t see the time for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes being faster than 104 seconds … let’s see what happens!
The final time was 1:46+.
Congrates – MS won. RC had to close on very heavy surface but he gave maximum effort. It always advisable good t play win and place.
Thanks CF… the track is way heavier than I though (7 second-finish is dramatically slow for this level)… Roman Centurian is another maternal grandson of BErnardini with great promise… the San Felipe promises to be equally exciting.
Yes … if the goal is not to lose money you always have to cover your bet playing twice the win money bet to place. Some people hate Show but I know that is used to recoup a bit especially if you are betting longshots.
The exacta from the Holy Bull saved the day though; 6.8 ROI was not too shabby.
So far so good !
Santa Anita is slower the longer they go….hard to figure times but….can figure they’re getting in shape.
Yes Matthew… that is the bright side of that beach-loose-sand-like track: in theory the horses will be getting better form as they expend 1.6 more energy running on heaviest track than on fast ones…
The caveat is that even the speed figures will be misleading (i.e. deceivingly low) when the track is so “out of boundary”
Hi Steve
After crushing the field in the Swale Stakes, will Drain the Clock make the Derby Dozen next week, or at least make the KOTD segment? In five career starts, he’s won four and DNF in his lone loss (lost rider). By Maclean’s Music, out of an Arch mare, DRC appears to have an excellent mix of speed and stamina. The FOY would certainly be an option next out.
He has had so many sprints and with his sire I cant put him in the Rankings until he shows he can go two turns and he shows he wants to want to go farther. As of now plans for him are up in the air.
Fair enough, thanks for the reply Steve.
WOO HOO Greatest Honor!
Greatest Honour wins the Holy Bull with authority…
next stop the Fountain of Youth in route to the Florida Derby… Orb memories comes to mind …
Nice payout for the exacta with Tarantino … who did well on dirt as we were denoting….!
Easily the most impressive performance on the Derby Trial thus far. Simply toyed with the field, the longer the better. Zooms to No.1.
Yes Davids… it is a great example of steady but sure development of a young horse towards full potential.. it is nice to see Shug McGaughey with another good one in the Derby trail… GH looks like a solid forerunner in the East .. praying for him to stay healthy.
That’s right, Nelson. January is a long way away from the first Saturday in May. It’ll be interesting to see where Greatest Honour runs next.
Essential Quality has some competition now! If GH can win at 1 1/16th with his pedigree, I’m liking his chances for longer (got 40-1 in KDFW2). That was a professional move on the final turn.
Greatest Honour was well placed at #2 on the Derby Dozen. He was very impressive in the Holy Bull, winning by open lengths.
Good point Bill… your line is a very good reminder of Steve’s acute eye to unveil talent in young horses … experience is PARAMOUNT!!!
Thanks Nelson.
Steve Haskin has forgotten more than I’ll ever know about the sport of horse racing. I’ve been following his Derby Dozen weekly posts for several years. Needless to say he’s always right there or thereabouts with his top Derby selections year after year.
Just out of curiosity, I’d appreciate your opinion on Drain the Clock, today’s winner of the 7F, Swale Stakes. After the race his trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr. mentioned the FOY is under consideration next out. His pedigree reflects a good mix of speed, (Maclean’s Music) and stamina, (Arch).
Thanks.
You are right about Steve’s wisdom. I should add that he judiciously took Prime Factor to the KNOCKING ON THE DOOR section pondering that his lack of experience might put him in disadvantage facing more experienced horses (i.e. more foundation)… he was right there as well…!
That is why we all are investing our time here … because Steve Haskin makes all the sense of the world when it comes to reporting Horse Racing.
Regarding Drain the Clock I believe he can stretch out with no problem. I have said that the Swale Stakes is a “factory of sprinters” but then I remembered how Shivaree (2nd in the Swale) extended his irrepressible speed to be runner-up to Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby… no less! and Drain the Clock got much more stamina than Shivaree for sure.
I you note that McLean’s Music threw a Preakness winner and that The Clock’s grandam is Arch you could very well expect him to get up to 9F. We should see how he fares in the Fountain of Youth to confirm this assumption.
I just watch the post parade for the Holy Bull and focused on how each entrant walked. Tarantino is the entrant that appears to be a big time router.
If he takes to dirt he should be a good wager.
He ran great for his first dirt effort.
I an very happy with the exacta.
In the Holy Bull its all Pletcher with Amount and Prime Factor.
In the RBL Stakes the exacta is Roman Centurian and Medina Spirit.
Blake, good call!
Blind squirrel
Hi Steve. Just starting to study your lists and the colts. Today I am liking Greatest Honor in the Holy Bull. I do love my closers! So hoping that I can get back in the swing this year of following the colts and fillies as closely as I used to. So need somewhat a return to normalcy in at least something!
Actually my high ranking was based on him going in the Withers next week at 1 1/8 miles as Shug told me. but we’ll see how he does going shorter on a more speed favoring track.
Wooooooooo!
The Holy Bull…named for a medium-sized steel gray—Great Above–Sharon Brown, by Al Hattab—where he got his gray—-16 starts…13 wins and three off the boards—one was his Derby–run in ankle deep slop…..he broke down in his last race–vs an upstart named Cigar—-Holy Bull was one of the fastest horses of my lifetime, after his Derby–three weeks later he took on his elders in the Met Mile, and it was a one horse race—as so many of Holy Bull’s races were…..
KING’S OVATION
The colt has an interesting form line.
He made his debut at Keeneland over 6F and finished 7 of 10 beaten by 91/2L. Approximately 7 weeks later he made his 2nd start over 7F in a field of 12. He won at 27/1. He capitalized on quick fractions and closed from 5L off the pace to run by the leaders. Approximately a month later he contested a 7F Optional Claim and finished 9 of 10 beaten 11 1/4L.
Adter finishing 7 of 10 on debut. This colt had 7 weeks plus between starts. He won next out at 27/1. He returned 4 weeks later and finished 9 of 10. He enters the Swale with 8 plus weeks between starts with a ML of 12/1.
This colt was purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds/Peacock Stable for $200K. He must have checked some boxes.
He has been working steadily ahead to the Swale. He is on the race schedule that preceded his 27/1 win. What exactly does the Dale Romans colt have in store for us today?
The Rober B. Lewis Stakes features a group of the best sophomores in the West. Absent from this one are first tier horses like Life is Good, The Great One, Red Flag and Get Her Number who is a bit behind presently.
Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill and John Shirreffs, all Derby winners, got two horses each in the Robert Lewis. Hey Eddie F !…can we say that California got an oligopoly of trainers …?
Five horses in the field of eight have been defeated by Life is Good but Medina Spirit was the closest to the early Derby favorite. I am always amazed when a horse is successful moving straight from a debut at 5 ½ furlongs to a 1 1/6-mile Stakes…
Medina Spirit proved to be a very good horse in the Sham, never giving up and sturdily going after Life is Good giving Mike Smith 5 seconds of worry.
Medina Spirit looked better than Spielberg in their joint workout (5F in 1:01.20) a week ago. The son of Protonico seems to have more reach in his stride and more fluency finishing the breeze.
Hot Rod Charlie is reappearing after a 85-day layoff and might be needing the race. If the son of Oxbow is defeated by Medina Spirit many people will be elevating Life is Good even more in the ranks and somehow lowering Essential Quality… but then again there is no valid early equivalence of two big horses facing off the first Saturday of May.
” but Medina Spirit was the closest to the early Derby favorite. ”
I was always of the opinion, though unofficial, that the early Derby favorite was the winner of the Breeder Cup Juvenile. When did this early Derby favorite change from being dame?
I ham assuming LIG has been deemed the early Derby favorite by virtue of emerging the favorite in the KDFP #2. It certainly wasn’t his resume that reflects a MSW and a G3 win over a group of last out MSW winners. Essential Quality has two G1 wins at distances 1 /2F further than LIG has ever raced. I guess its the BB mania.
“I am always amazed when a horse is successful at moving straight from a debut at 5 ½ furlongs to a 1 1/6-mile”
Assuming you meant from a debut at 5 ½ furlongs to a 1mile. This occurs more often than yo might be aware. Whilst I consider it important bit of information. I do not consider same as a significant indicator of exceptional talent.
Medina Spirit and Parneli made their debut over 5 1/2F. Both had next out starts over a mile albeit both didn’t contest a stakes races.. Hot Rod Charlie made 2 starts at 5F before stepping up to a mile. Goldencents made his debut over 5 1/2F and then was shipped from CA to NY to contest the G1 Champagne against the winner of the G2 hopeful who was making his 4th start. Authentic made his debut over 5 1/2F and then contested the Sham. He emerged the winner of a rescheduled KD.
‘Five horses in the field of eight have been defeated by Life is Good but Medina Spirit was the closest”
Whilst the above is accurate. It must be noted that LIG debut was over 6 1/2F. Medina Spirit met him over a mile. The two Bob Lewis entrants that were in LIG debut race, were beaten by 9 1/2L & 12 1/2L. However, the composition of a field, the distance and pace of a race will dictate how close to the winner certain entrants finish .
I do not concur that if Hot Rod Charlie is defeated by Medina Spirit that it will elevate Life is Good even more in the ranks and somehow lower Essential Quality status. The champion 2YO has been tested and has emerged with flying colors. LIG has won two races with uncontested leads and in fields not comprising graded and ungraded stakes winners.
Revisit the final 1/2F of Roman Centurian’s MSW win. Focus on the power with which he executes every stride. Then revisit the Sham and determine if Medina Spirit will exhibit similar power with an additional 1/2F to cover. I am of the Opinion Roman Centurian will finish ahead of Medina Spirit.
Obviously I could be proven total wrong. It wouldn’t be the only time I have been wrong. Good Luck with your wagers.
You’re right, Nelson. Break up the Golden State! I’m leaning toward Spielberg, back in 6 weeks after his nice win in the Los Al Futurity. He seems to prefer some down time between races. His losses in the American Pharoah and Bob Hope came after rests of just 19 and 14 days.
Life is Good not running but I don’t know if those other three you mentioned represent the top tier–The Great One beat three horses, and two were tiring after chasing the fast splits–and needed the race—he was impressive though…but this race has a nice eight-pack—and having rolled the track (sealed) and with no works–today’s sunshine just might make it all work out—last couple days it rained a LOT!
I’m looking for value past the logical favorites GH and PF in the Holy Bull Stakes. Pletcher’s “other” maiden winner, Amount at 8-1 in the morning line, may be the ticket. As the 8-5 favorite in his debut at GP (7f), he overcame a bump at the start and a relatively slow pace, and finished well while ridden out. His dam, Extent, foaled a future stakes winner in the filly Size, who won the G3 Iowa Oaks at the Holy Bull distance.
If there were quality stakes runners in this race, I’d be less inclined to put any amount on Amount. But as Steve said, this looks like a good allowance race. 🙂 I expect that Greatest Honour will be winning some big races at 9f and longer.
It’s a better field than the one Tiz The Law defeated in 2020.
Hey Mr Longshot—what is wrong with Papetu–15-1 ML and I can’t understand that–but Gulfstream not my track, so…perhaps after the race I will understand the odds better??!!
I couldn’t watch the race— what the heck happened with Amount?! I was rooting for him.
Mutasaabeq;
Sometimes I have to pause and ask myself if I am too cynical and/or too skeptical.
I have often referred to Todd Pletcher’s Operation as one of a High Octane nature. The horses exposed to said program usually have abbreviated racing careers with many unexpectedly going MIA .
Many see TP’s operation as a conveyor belt for the development of stallions for the breeding shed.. A rather plausible reason for talented horses reported injured and/or going MIA.
I am not surprised when a TP horse is reported inured. Whilst members of the public cannot verify injuries, there is a pattern that can be highlighted.
Happy Saver surprisingly defeated Tacitus in the Jockey Gold Cup. The colt hasn’t been seen since
Where are the following 2020 3YO?
Gov Morris
Dr. Post
Farmington Road
What ever happened to 2017 3YOs
One Liner
Malagacy
Battalion Runner
Be it injuries or unexpected loss of form, the beat goes on on with this program.
“Steve Haskin says:
January 27, 2021 at 11:47 am
I am going to repeat what I told you at Bloodhorse. You can criticize any trainer you wish and you may be right about your accusations and assumptions of any trainer, but this is not the place for it. Please limit your opinions to the Derby and do not compare any trainer to known cheats. Thank you.”
“[Gouverneur Morris] finally became sound 10 days ago, and he’s being turned out five hours a day in the paddock,” said Team Valor CEO and founder Barry Irwin.
Irwin said the 3-year-old is expected to return to trainer Todd Pletcher’s barn at some point in January and after 120 days of training could be set to run by May.”
Bloodhorse- November 21, 2020
Despite being on the receiving end of a shellacking on debut from Life Is Good. I am of the opinion Roman Centurian is likely to be a better colt than the #2 ranked Greatest Honour
The above assessment takes into account Greatest Honour’s reasonably close finishes (4L & 1 1/2L) in a pair of quickly run 7Fs MSW in comparison to Roman Centurian’s 12 1/4L defeat over a similar middle distance.
If the stride mechanics of the two colts are compared. The one displayed by Roman Centurian appears far for energy efficient. I consider both colts to be closers. In their receptive maiden breakers, Roman Centurian was far more assertive in the stretch and galloped out with a lot more energy.
From a pedigree perspective, the edge has to go to Roman Centurian. Many of Tapit’s progenies that are devoid of tactical speed are grinders. The Empire Maker routers are much more proficient movers. Bernardini has got to be considered the hottest broodmare sire at the moment. Whilst Street Cry has few comparisons in the sire category, he has not been a stellar broodmare sire. Well, not as yet
At a ML of 8/1 in the Bob Lewis, Roman Centurian will have some of my cash when he leaves the gates. I do not hold the Bob Baffert’s entrants in as high a regard as others. Neither do I think Hot Rod Charlie is as good a colt as Roman Centurion.
I really liked his maiden win, and I like Callaghan….likely a rolled fast surface, though, I might ex box with Wipe the Slate, who might be up on the pace, clean and clear of mud….I was impressed by Roman, passed eight and big stride, not sure about tomorrow, more rains predicted, and had lots of rain last night…but however he does I’m on his bandwagon.
Thank you Steve for your continued and enjoyable comprehensive coverage this year.
My pleasure, please keep stopping by. Always good to hear from you
Steve – Love this column and reading about your insights. I followed you for years on Bloodhorse and happened to stumble onto your column on Secretariat.com. which I’ve now booked marked! I’ve been searching daily for any updates on Olympiad after reading he may be on the shelf. I see he didn’t work out this week, so apparently something is up. Have you heard anything new ? I did bet him on Pool 2. Would be nice if some news was released, good or bad.
Thanks !
Gad you found us JC. I texted Mott about him and all he said was hes on the shelf. Thats all I know but on the shelf doesnt sound too pomising as far as making the Derby.
Thank you Steve.
I meant to say, the first 3YO on my “off the trial” list. My #1 pick at the moment is Essential Quality.
The reason Mutasaabeq wasn’t entered in the Holy Bull is that he is off the Derby Trail with a shin injury, according to DRF. The first one on my list. Sigh.
Sadly there are at least four more hopefuls going to the side lines according to history… it is the sheer grind of the Derby trail.
Which has barely started!
You can take me to court about it but I strongly believe that Tarantino has an absolute dirt pedigree.
I do not understand the underlying reasons to run him on turf in California. Perhaps Baffert was looking to “spread his horses” to widen prospects of more Stakes wins. At any rate, Tarantino’s current trainer Rodolphe Brisset (who built the first brick in a fortress called Justify) is kind of getting paid back by Bob Baffert who trained the son of Pioneerof the Nile for his two promising turf races.
Tarantino maternal side could not be stronger with Seeking the Gold, Seattle Slew, El Gran Señor and Stage Door Johnny as dam sires. On top of that he is 4×4 inbreed to 4-time European Champion El Gran Señor.
I notice that Tarantino had to be hard ridden (bike-like fashion) in his first two races which could signal he is not at his best running on turf… nevertheless he was able to win in his debut in a mile race that featured Hot Rod Charlie. The same horse who went on to break his maiden at a mile on dirt before rocking the world with his second in the BC Juvenile.
The bright side is that turf races infuse solid foundation in young horses and that the angle that worked for Hot Rod Charlie and Mutasaabeq is also valid for Tarantino.
I am playing Tarantino in my exotics … he will be paying more than the 8/1-morning line in my estimation.
Tarantino and King Guillermo shares the second dam Slow Down by Seattle Slew…
*share
We see more and more 3 year olds come off the turf to become legitimate Derby horses. We had several last year. Strange for Baffert to start him off on turf when he rarely runs anyone on turf. Should be interesting.
May it please the court, I would not rule out a future for Tarantino on the dirt. However, his pedigree screams out TURF! Not only from those sires you mentioned on the dam’s side, but from the sire’s side (e.g., Lord at War). I rest my case.
Case dismissed !!!
Trial by Running!!!!!!
If it pleases the court I would like to enter into evidence Edubai.
The Mr.. Prospector progeny was out of Words Of War by Law At War. Edubai raced exclusively on dirt.
Fort Larned was sired by Edubai whose dam was sired by Law At War.
Fort Larned first 3 starts were on dirt. He was then switched to turf for his 4th and finished 2nd. Two of his next 6 starts were on synthetic and 4 on turf. Those 6 starts resulted in 1 win on turf. He was switched back to dirt where he won a further 8 races including 4 at the graded level.
All the horses competing in the Holy Bull are worth persevering going forward. Greatest Honour and Prime Factor are deserving favorites.
Greatest Honour has been facing very good horses in all of his 4 races. His maiden win was really convincing; he was bumped hardly at the start, badly bothered by Dudes Got Game losing his jockey and still the son of Tapit put the race to bed in the stretch with a powerful late charge. The relative fast time for the 1 1/6-mile is supporting his 5/2 morning line.
Steve has already thoroughly the virtues of Prime Factor after his promising debut including portraying his aristocratic female family.
Watching Prime Factor’s workouts, you can only be impressed. I particularly liked his January 2nd- 5 F workout in 1:00.50 when he looked to overshadow a G2 winner Largent (game 2nd in the Pegasus WC Turf and with brilliant campaign overall).
Prime Factor’s final workout reads 5F in 59” 4/5 which comes to confirm how ready he is to deliver an superior performance this Saturday.
The son of Quality Road should not have troubles in unrolling his tactical speed to the 1 1/6 mile. His dam sire Bernardini should be especially helping in that bid.
Prime Factor and Greatest Honour are solid key horses for all the exotic bets…
PERTINET QUESTIONS:
Has a last out MSW winner ever emerged the winner of the Holly Bull?
Has there ever been Holy Bull winner that didn’t make a start beyond 6F?
If the answer to the respective questions is no. The cited win contenders can be eliminated from the top spot. One a more serious note. To narrow the win contenders to last out MSW winners might not be wise. Particularly one that has made a start beyond 6F.
Life Is Good won over 6 1/2F on debut pulling a bus. In his next out effort over 8F, many were of the opinion his stride was noticeably shortening. His rider provided another reason for his deceleration. He was only required to travel an extra 1 1/2F
Prime Factor has more of a routing pedigree. His effortless debut win suggested he could have gone much further. An additional 2 1/2F furlong might not appear to be a challange. However, it could become a challenge if he is part of a contested pace. Which is likely unless he runs off on the lead. Further, TP didn’t win a significant KD prep in 2019 & 2020. I could be concluded he has lost his Mojo.
Greatest Honour has a lot of foundation and will be grinding late. I wasn’t overly impressed with his maiden breaker as he was hard ridden a long way from the line and was visibly tired as per his abbreviated gallop out. He like others will benefit from a strong pace.
Unlike his maiden win, he will not be the sole entrant closing from off the pace. The other closers possess better stride mechanics. But he might have the stamina advantage.
I am of the opinion that the entrants with graded stakes experience are not chopped liver Particularly Sittin On Go who has been working well. Tarantino has 3 starts at a mile albeit on turf. That sufficient foundation for an 8 1/2F dirt debut.
Horses make Stats not the other way around. These young horses are in the fray to make history armed with the thunder of their hooves.
Dialed In and Harvey Wallbanger were last out MSW winner who won the Holy Bull… this proves or disproves nothing at all.
Let me formulate another key question: How many Holy Bull winners had prior Stakes experience ? If we were to take the last 10 years as a sample for the sake of simplicity you can see that five (5) winners had Stakes experience…. so you see … it is a 50/50 chance… this again, means nothing.
Also no 2-year old champion who chose the Holy Bull for sophomore debut could win it… that does not mean that the same will happen for ever…
Every race has its own characteristics and it takes only one exceptional horse to cancel history and write a new one… is any of the Derby hopefuls we have seen so far one of such horses? … I don’t know … that makes the search more fascinating.
It is obvious to me that you are missing the episode of the dramatic halt suffered by Greatest Honour traveling the first turn… he had to be ridden hard and finally tired because he was making up a lot of ground lost due to Duded Got Game’s mishap.
That display of grit is a good drill to overcome traffic hassles in the Derby but the question is about the son of Tapit being possibly “drained” by that huge effort and not completely recovered from it albeit happening a month ago.
So I gather that you are backing Sittin on Go to defeat Prime Factor and Greatest Honour… let’s see if your handicapping (using Everfast) is right.
P.S. You won’t see how much GH was bothered in any replay because the incident was cut before released to the public
Hopefully, Jose Ortiz will use his magic and extricate Greatest Honour out of the gate, fast. Are you missing the ‘secret weapon’? Who do you like in the Swale Stakes?
LOL… My “Secret Weapon” is becoming “The Six Million Dollar Man” after his arthroscopic leg surgery. Fortunately there are a lot of prospects he can procure starting in February …!
The Swale Stakes is more a factory of sprinters than a Derby conduit. Drain the Clock should not have any problem extending his great speed to the 7F but I am curious to see how Likeable comes back … he should relish the distance.
Yes, “the weapon” has had a bad trot the last several months. Let’s hope he returns to his former confident self. The Swale should be interesting, for me Likeable has more appeal but the start could be the race.
edited:
*it takes only one exceptional horse to reset or cancel statistics (i.e. breaking paradigms) and write new chapters in history…
Has anyone noticed that on the same day, TARANTINO is entered in the Holy Bull Stakes and SPIELBERG is entered in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes?
But will they be yelling “cut” at the end of the day?
LOL. Probably.
“The stuff that dreams are made of.” – The Maltese Falcon,
Keepmeinmind…….is lebron James……big athletic……trainer says light is going on……he is becoming a good worker in mornings………i really like him…..
Senor Buscador……don’t know what to think…..i bet him because he is running freakishly fast at the end……..he probably finished 5 and 3…….in debut……unheard of……then?….went long……and did 12?…….at rem?…….what IS this?…….
Yes, SB runs fast at the end…because he runs slow at the start.
Are you sure he runs slow at the start? Couldn’t be that his opponents run faster at the start ?
TARATINO:
Assuming the subject colt enters the starting gates for the Holy Bull, it will represent his dirt debut. The big questions regarding the colt have to be. Why has he been restricted to turf? Can he successfully transition to dirt?
Whilst he has been competitive on turf, he just hasn’t exhibited the stride extension in the stretch of his race to suggest he is a serious turf horse. In his last win over a mile at GP. He didn’t appear overly fluent on the surface but was able to win comfortably in 1:35.62.
His sire Poineerofthe Nile has been represented by two top class colts i.e., American Pharoah and Classic Empire. (Both 2YO Champion) His dam sire Seeking The Gold is also the dam sire of Zeynyatta’s stopper, Blame. He was also sire of the brilliant Dubai Millennium.
Pinoeerofthe Nile raced on turf/synthetic before making his dirt debut in the KD in which he finished 2nd. Seeking The Gold has sired both turf and dirt runners at the highest level. Tarantino should therefore be able to successfully transition to dirt.
With 3 starts over 8F in which he was forwardly placed.. This colt has exhibited tactical speed which his stamina laden pedigree should allow him to sustain same in contested stretch run.
He has the foundation, pedigree and talent to win the Holy Bull, even in his dirt debut. If only one could be certain that he can handle the kick back.
PP Horse ML Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Jirafales 20/1 118 Velazquez John R. Delgado Gustavo
2 Willy Boi 10/1 120 Alvarado Junior Engler Jeff
3 Papetu 15/1 120 Reyes Leonel Sano Antonio
4 Amount 6/1 118 Saez Luis Pletcher Todd A.
5 Tarantino 8/1 120 Zayas Edgard J. Brisset Rodolphe
6 Prime Factor 3/1 118 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Pletcher Todd A.
7 Greatest Honour5/2 118 Ortiz Jose L. McGaughey III Claude R.
8 Sittin On Go 5/1 124 Lanerie Corey J. Romans Dale L.
9 Awesome Gerry 8/1 120 Gaffalione Tyler Joseph, Jr. Saffie A.
Above the 2021 Holy Bull Entries with Morning Lines…
2019 – Everfast
Iroquois – 5th
Breeder Futurity G1 – 8th
Kentucky Jockey Club G2 – 14th
Holy Bull G2 – 2nd (99/1)
2020 – Sittin On Go
Iroquois – 1st
Breeder Cup Juvenile G1 – 9th
Kentucky Jockey Club G2 – 6th
Holy Bull – Pending
The Dale Romans trainer Everfast (99/1) was the most unlikely entrant to hit the board in the 2019 Holy Bull. But he failed by just inches to land possibly the biggest upset in Holy Bull history. Sittin On Go with a ML of 5/1 seems to have an easier task.
Harvey Wallbanger won that Holy Bull at 30 to 1 odds. The favored Maximus Mischief and Mihos failed to meet expectations triggering an exorbitant $6,173-trifecta.
I do not believe Sittin on Go has a easier task as speed is king during the first half of the Trail and Gulfstream is amenable to horses with better early speed… and the pace does not seem to be scorching precisely…!
Is Godolphin sending for the first time ever a filly to the Derby via Dubai?
The filly Soft Whisper (Dubawi – Placidia by Sea the Stars) turned out to be a superb dirt runner and her tour de force two hours ago in the UAE 1000 GUINEAS presented by Longines is making everyone thinking about the UAE Derby.
Had Dettori moved one muscle on her she could have won by 20 lengths or more. She might no be facing great runners so far but got a huge potential.
There may be a nice story developing over there around this marvelous filly…!
I will check out the performance.
why would they do that?
Why not ? If she happens to win the UAE Derby in Mendelsohn fashion why not trying to make history…
I do not care if it happens or not .. it is just an exercise of the imagination
Relax my friend… let it all be!
“There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?”
–George Bernard Shaw
Genuine Risk caught one of the weakest Derby fields, and Winning Colors made all of the running in one of the strongest Derby fields….both had tried colts before, and Winning Colors had won the SA Derby big— I can’t think of another filly I would run in the Derby, she was an amazon….I recall Althea, coming off of her 7 length Arkansas Derby…fillies aren’t as strong as colts, and the Kentucky Derby is hard even for colts….and winning the race doesn’t raise a filly’s value like it does for a colt’s…for that matter I wouldn’t t put my gelding thru the Derby rigors, either, unless I bred him…like Best Pal….short sprints, and turf are a different ballgame, but fillies v colts on dirt are a mismatch…
Excellent Meeting ran well in the Kentucky Derby but was eased in the Preakness Stakes. You miss not seeing Golden Eagle runners.
For a horse that’s taken a lot of money in the future pools and who ran very fast coming from off the pace as a 2-year-old — including a track record on a souped-up Keeneland surface, which has turned out to be a key race with multiple runners returning to win next out — there’s been remarkably little press about Highly Motivated in the past 2 months. Thanks for the note about him here, Steve. There’s an article from last summer on DRF in which Brown says, “Highly Motivated looks like a true sprinter with a lot of quality.” And maybe the breeding on his dam side will bear that out. We’ll find out soon enough. But watching replays of his races, I’m struck by the horse’s professionalism and courage. In all three of his races, he’s been forced to run inside of horses and take dirt, and he’s shown unusual tenacity in his willingness to rally inside, split horses, etc. I think he’s probably even more talented than his gaudy 2-year-old numbers make him look, and I expect him to develop into a star if he stays healthy.
Antonio Sano, the trainer of Papetu, and Gustavo Delgado, the trainer of Jirafales, are two distinguished members of the Venezuelan Diaspora who moved to Florida with their luggage full of local accolades and championships. In quest of the American dream they have proved their Stakes caliber in the Big Leagues of Horse Racing.
Sano took Gunnevera to the Derby and managed $5.5 million campaign for the son of Dialed In with a superb finale of a 3rd in the Dubai World Cup.
Gustavo Delgado has been thriving for 7 years in the land of the Free; he took Majesto to the 2016 Derby after a second in the Florida Derby at 21 to 1 behind Nyquist. In the Florida Derby again he had a maiden named Bodexpress finishing second at 71 to 1. The son of Bodemeister ended his career in a high note winning the G1 Clark Stakes.
Last year Delgado enabled Caracaro to be second best behind Tiz the Law in the Travers punching his ticket to the Derby but was sidelined with an leg injury after working 6F in 1:12.26 at Saratoga.
The Venezuelans have proved their talent with limited opportunities, and you can be sure they will be giving no less than a good fight whenever they get one.
I am big fan of Jirafales and hope he does well in the HB.
The raw talent is there … his debut at GPW is better than it looks … that surface is deceiving when it comes to comparative speed figures.
They have to solve the issue of Jirafales being too green though… but I never discount Delgado and Sano in the search of plausible longshots.
I have the utmost respect for all Venezuelan trainers. They are fantastic horsemen.
I remember you being the first in spotting Caracaro’s raw talent…!
Juan Carlos Avila was about to join the club of Venezuelans in the Derby with King Guillermo… he is receiving more opportunities now and it is just a matter of time for him to shine a bit more…!
Is there a more accomplished runner among the hopefuls’ moms than Panty Raid, dam of #12 Proxy? In 2007, she won the 9f Black-Eyed Susan (G2) on dirt, the 10f American Oaks (G2) on turf, and the 9f Spinster (G1) on all-weather.
Just last October, her daughter Micheline was second by 3/4 length to Harvey’s Lil Goil in the 9f Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on the Keeneland turf. In Micheline’s previous race, she beat Harvey’s Lil Goil in the Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs at a distance of 1 5/16th miles on the turf.
If Proxy (by Tapit) fails to be a Derby runner, you can’t blame his pedigree. I’m hoping that all three top finishers of the Lecomte come back in 2 weeks+ for the 9f Risen Star, the first race of the Championship Series.
Irrespective of Proxy’s attributes on the track the pedigree will avail an opportunity at stud. Even better, should the colt succeed at Grade 1 level his chances improve exponentially. Improvement appears positive, if not the Derby Trail, then after.
Keep an eye on a 1 1/16 mile maiden race on grass Saturday. There are 3 horses in there, Avenue, Jarlian, and Ariston from Pletcer, Mott, and Brown and all three have strictly dirt breeding, so its strange they are debuting on grass, but if one wins watch for a switch to dirt.
Ariston looks like a very tough horse to beat in his debut… but Jarlian (Street Sense – Goaltending by A.P. Indy) and Avenue (Quality Road – Magic Union by Dixie Union) represent a good test of class for the favored son of Flatter…!
There must be an incentive to debut on the turf…
Pletcher debuted Likeable in a race that moved from turf to dirt and turned out excellent on dirt. Pletcher’s Perfect Munning won his debut on turf and then won the Rego Park Stakes on dirt to remain undefeated. Never Surprised and Spirit Maker are undefeated exclusively on turf but their pedigrees are dirt oriented…
The incentve could very well be that they need a two turn race now and this was the only race in the book. Got to start them when theyre ready.
Makes sense … You are more than right!
It wouldn’t be the Derby Trail if Steve Haskin’s historical insight was left in the barn — and when the railbird version of Ernie Banks says “Let’s Play Two!”…….it means laying a few sawbucks on a cool exacta box for the latest Kentucky Derby points qualifier.
Lol, thank you very much, Richard. Love the Ernie Banks/exacta line. Boy, I used to love doubleheaders…both in the day.
Sittin On Go?
What has gone wrong with the subject colt
I guess the answer to the question is best addressed by another question. What went wrong with Dennis’ Moment? Both colt are from the barn of Dale Romans. Both scored impressive win ahead of their BCJ efforts and were no shows in the race. Their respective start subsequent to the BCJ were just as bad. Were both colts asked to do too much too early?
Since Sittin On Go’s dismal 6th place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes. He has not missed a beat since resuming breezing on the 12/27/2020. He has recorded 5 works at 7 days intervals at GP with one over 5F in 59.89. He certainly isn’t training like a colt with any issues.
Prime Factor Has a 59 work for 5F. He will be fancied in the betting whereas Sittin On Go might not be. Sitting On Go has the experience advantage. But can he be trusted? Keen Ice was the only 3YO to defeat AP. Dale Romans is therefore known for springing upsets. Sittin On Go has the talent win. But can recapture lost form in the HB?
Will Boi
The subject gelding is undefeated in pair of 6F starts at GP. I must concede I do not know anything about the gelding or its trainer. But given the composition of the Holy Bull field, no entrant can be safely dismissed. There isn’t enough BOW to accurately assess many of the entrants.
I have seen reports that the Palm Meadows Training Center surface is very deep. Consequently, fast time are not usually recorded. The subject gelding won on debut on 12/10/2020 after a final 4F breeze of 47.55, nine days before. Ahead of his 2nd start he breeze 5F in 59 flat and 3F in 35.93. These works were all recorded on the reportedly deep PMTC surface.
The $40K purchase by Uncaptured out of a Yet It’s True mare, appears to have a sprinter/middle distance pedigree. But one never knows how a speed horse will effectively stretch out. Can a 5F work in 59 on a deep surface be used to conclude this colt can carry its speed 8 1/2F?
A relative inexpensive gelding with a relatively unknown trainer against expensive opponents from reputable barns. Seem like David v/s Goliath scenario. We all know how that worked out. On a more serious note. The true ability of this colt like many others in the HB field is unknown. He worked fast on a deep track and that should be viewed as something significant.
The subject colt is undefeated in two starts at GP
I want to ask you a question. Do you live in England or are you from Great Britain?
He comes from the land of reggae…….the island who’s national animal…….is a weed…..
He never responds to me so I’m done responding to his comments.
No. The national animal is the red-billed streamertail, a member of the hummingbird family. I would have expected you to know this. Fact is that CF is from the Duchy of Grand Fenwick.
I see the high power stable of Todd Pletcher has 2 entrants in the Holy Bull. Despite Pletcher’s dominance at GP, the Holy Bull isn’t one of his happy hunting ground. In the last 20 renewals of the stakes he has recoded 2 win.
One of those wins was in 2018 when Audible exploded to a 1:41.92 victory. Only 2 other HB winners have recorded faster times i.e., Go For Gin and Itsmyluckyday.
The HB entrants from the barn of the dirt king of the East are impressive last out MSW winners. Neither has the race record of his previous winners. Audible made 3 starts ahead of his HB win whilst Algorithms made 2. Despite the impressiveness of Amount and Prime Factor, I have a sneaky feeling neither is likely to emerge the winner. But sneaky feelings are bad to have as they are not definitive.
Amount – ($110,000) Repole Stable/St Alias Stable
Prime Factor – ($900,000) China Horse Club/WinStar Farms
Two prominent and high profile clients of TP with competing colts, whose prices suggest they shouldn’t even be in the same. Does money buys superior talent? Sometimes! But most times average races .
For a Curlin colt out of a Pulpit mare to change hands for $110K. Something must have been unappealing from a conformation perspective. Conversely, Prime Factor must have checked all the boxes.
Conclusion:
Amount is too inexpensive to be a tp doge in TP stable and consequently be assumed he isn’t as good as advertised. Prime Factor is way too expensive to likewise to emerge a top dog in the crop. Therefore either one or two of their lesser profiled opponents should emerge better on the day.
I guess I should wager the exacta.
I see the high power stable of Todd Pletcher has 2 entrants in the Holy Bull. Despite Pletcher’s dominance at GP, the Holy Bull isn’t one of his happy hunting ground. In the last 20 renewals of the stakes he has recoded 2 win.
One of those wins was in 2018 when Audible exploded to a 1:41.92 victory. Only 2 other HB winners have recorded faster times i.e., Go For Gin and Itsmyluckyday.
The HB entrants from the barn of the dirt king of the East are impressive last out MSW winners. Neither have the race record of his previous winner. Audible made 3 starts ahead of his HB win whilst Algorithms made 2. Despite the impressiveness of Amount and Prime Factor, I have a sneaky feeling neither is likely to emerge the winner. But sneaky felling are bad to have as they are not definitive.
Amount – ($110,000) Repole Stable/St Alias Stable
Prime Factor – ($900,000) China Horse Club/WinStar Farms
Two prominent high profile clients of TP with competing colts whose prices suggest they shouldn’t even be in the same. Does money always buy race superior talent? Sometimes! but most of the time not.
For Curlin colt out of a Pulpit mare to change hands for $110K. Something must have been unappealing from a conformation perspective. Conversely, Prime Factor must have checked all the boxes.
Conclusion:
Amount is too inexpensive to be a tp doge in TP stable and consequently isn’t as good as advertised. Prime Factor is too expensive to likewise to emerge a top dog in the crop. Therefore either one or two of their lesser profiled opponent should emerge better on the day.
I guess I should wager the exacta.
Evidently, Pletcher and Mutasaabeq’s ownership group (Shadwell Stable) decided not to run him in the Holy Bull. He could now be pointed to the FOY, or the Sam Davis. We’ll see.
The closing stage of the his MMM suggest he has some stamina issues. The extra 1/2F against a better group might have been the reason.
With TP horses on never knows when they will go MIA. I am still enquiring what ever happened to:
One Liner
Malafgacy
Battalion Runner
In case you haven’t heard, per Todd Pletcher, Mutasaabeq has sustained an injury, and is off the Derby trail.
I see John Valezquez has been retained to ride Jirafales in the Holy Bull. This Social Inclusion colt has been on my watch list shortly after appearing on my radar.
Many get high on impressive MSW winners that had problem free trips en-rout to victory. Jirafales was bumped at the start and incident left him 10L behind the field. He advance 2W on the first turn, 4W into the stretch, then split rivals and drew off to win by 4 3/4L
When a young horse running green wins in such a fashion. It has exhibited way above average ability. His debut was approximately 10 weeks ago. His work report reflects a breeze every 7 days from 1/9/2021. He appears to be entering the HB on a good pattern and should very fit.
A graded stakes plus Johnny V 10 weeks after an interesting debut win, has certainly enhanced my interest.
I dont know what kind of field he beat at Gulfstream West and he did jump to his left lead in the stretch and he was entered in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes and scratched so he has missed a scheduled start in a stretch-out race from 6f to a mile. But I will say he is stunning to look at, a very classy looking horse with the most beautiful head I have seen this year.
The Holy Bull Stakes is an excllent allowance race. The favorites are all horses coming off a maiden wn.
Lol, and your statement is pure hyperbole. Ha ha Looks like a good race though, some dreams may evaporate in the running. I’m really looking forward to see how Likeable performs in the Swale Stakes as well.
Just a suggestion, take a close look at Drain the Clock, he’s pointed to the Swale.
Yes, nice win last time out but 6f. might be his pet distance. Good luck.
I would be interested in Likeable too dropping back into a sprint, but I was told from one of his connectons they believe he is a one turn horse
Just hoping to see the return of the potential Likeable showed earlier. Looks like a perfect day, weather-wise.
I wonder what your take is on horses with some Stakes experience (i.e. Sittin on Go, Papetu, Awesome Gerry and even Tarantino)… looking for some value for the Exotics.
Perhaps Prime Factor will be gutsy enough against those “more experienced” rivals…
Sittin on Go has been working lights out.
The 2021 field appears to have significantly entrants than the 2020 field.
Yes … only Tiz the Law and Ete Indian were perhaps the best ones in last year edition… whereas this year you see at least 5 horses with good credentials …
I remember how the 2-year-champions took the Holy Bull as their sophomore debut (Hansen, Shanghai Bobby and Classic Empire) and no one could win …
The 2021 field appears to have significantly better entrants than the 2020 field.
Thank you Steve for the article….I’m a Rock Your World and World Tour fan….just by looks.
Lets hope they all stay healthy and Provet and Colfacts get other hobbies soon.
LOL. Hey as long as they contribute I’m fine with what they say. Remember, Rock Your World has run only once in a sprint race on grass. I mentioned that to Coldfacts, who wrote as if it were a dirt race but he ignored it as usual. First lets see if they put him on dirt.
-There is plenty room at Mar-a-Lgo where you can join your father the ridiculing chief.
If you answered this already my apologies for not seeing it but why is Greatest Honor ranked above horse that beat him last week? And do you think we have already seen our Derby winner or are they waiting in the wings?
He didnt beat him he finished ahead of him in two sprints. This is about projection and who looks like a mile and a quarter horse not who finishes ahead of a horse in sprint race.
Hello Steve, I just read an article on DRF that Fire at Will might target the FOY at GP on 2-27. The article also mentioned that Fire at Will could also run in the Palm Beach which is a Turf stakes on the same day. I could see derby fever swaying the connections to try the FOY because Fire at Will is firing bullets at GP and has a dirt win at 7F at Saratoga in a stakes race. I would be happy to get him at 30-1 in KDFW3 because he looks like the real deal to me. CD surface seems kind to turf type horses like Fire at Will. What are your impressions of this colt Steve, and do you view him as a KY Derby Contender? Could he crack your dozen if they confirm he will run in the FOY?
I’m not sure what to make of him. He is working well for sure but his pedigree is mostly grass especially his sire and broodmare sire and he has yet to win on a fast dirt track and turf horses generally handle slop well. I have no idea what Maker will do but I will guess they’ll try him in the FOY.
I am so happy to see Caddo River here on the list .I loved the way he ran yes maybe not the best bunch but he just rolled .I too would like to see how Proxy can run without repeated left hands showed a lot of grit!
I am a bit amused. Would you have been unhappy or disappointed if Caddo River’s ability was not likewise recognized by others?
I have petitioned the folks at Merriam-Webster to expand their definition of “jerk.”
Me. Haskin,
Your statement below has resulted in number of what I consider to be pertinent questions, which you are likely have to some answers.
“Its actually a training philosophy used by the old time greats like Max Hirsch, Sunny Jim Fitzsimmon,s and John Gaver.”
Do you believe Mr. Baffert’s training philosophy is exclusively responsible for his success?
Why hasn’t Mr. Baffert’s successful training philosophy adopted by fellow trainers?
Has any of his assistant trainers taken out a trainer’s license, and it so, has he/she successfully replicated his success?
Is there any justification for the skepticism associate with his program?
Why do so many of the horses under his keep and care suddenly and unexpectedly lose form?
Do you believe Mr. Baffert will provide details of his training & conditioning philosophy in a book?
Was the training philosophy refenced above in operation in the 12 years (2003-2014) Bob Baffert didn’t win the KD?
I am a skeptic. But I will accept objective truth. Objective truth, is true no matter what. A proper skeptic will question what they are unsure of, but will recognize when valid evidence is presented.
I have read the story about training philosophy before. There is no bigger story on the issue than that of Flo Jo.
As an average sprinter Flo Jo retuned from an off season looking like a body builder and set WR that still stand today. She was questioned about her physical transformation and resulting achievements. She attributed same to a new diet and an new training philosophy.
Any such diet and training philosophy would been replicated by fellow female athletes, if revealed. Even after Flo Jo retired details of her wonder diet and training philosophy were never revealed. Her husband and coach could have commanded huge retention fees. But he likewise retired.
There are many training philosophies employed by various trainers. Mr. Baffert’s philosophy appears unparalleled. If this training philosophy was previously used with the same degree of success by old time trainers. Doesn’t it appears very odd that other trainers have not adopted same, with the hope of achieving his level of success.
This not an attempt to smear. But given indictment of a particular trainer that never worked his KD winner faster than 50 for a 1/2 mile. The public has seen enough to be skeptical when things seem unusual and unparalleled.
I am going to repeat what I told you at Bloodhorse. You can criticize any trainer you wish and you may be right about your accusations and assumptions of any trainer, but this is not the place for it. Please limit your opinions to the Derby and do not compare any trainer to known cheats. Thank you.
Frank Whitely worked his horses fast and hard. He ALSO put his juveniles in training races in South Carolina. When they came to the track they ran fast. What’s missing from this guys so called analysis is it completely ignores the obvious.. that some people are just better at what they do then others.
This conspiracy theory mentality stems mostly from those who aspire to be better than they really are and rather than accept that it might be beyond their skillset and nuance, they instead claim subterfuge. By definition his arguments are specious.. Of course he looks for that.. the concept of superior ability means the person inquiring cannot accept that basic issue. Do you really think ALL people can perform their tasks equally given equal opportunity? Ever play poker and lose 7 out of ten times and think you must ne being cheated? This conspiracy guy is sad. life must be a drag for him. Typical mentality of a sociopath.
Handicapping is hard and trainers must be good at it to be good at their jobs. Simple answers abound.. not all people can do the same job equally given equal opportunity. This is not a tough concept unless you think anything you cannot understand must be a conspiracy.. sense of constant aggrievement isnt an attractive quality
The late Gary Jones and the late Bruce Headley both worked their horses like they were in a race—fast—I think Bob learned on the go, and he probably looked at Gary Jones….but Bob can pick them out at the sales, man he can! As for Flo Jo…I ran track….Flo Jo was around for a decade–she was good but she had a lot of 2nds, 3rds, 4ths….that she improved her 100 meter times by a few tenths—Now I liked Flo Jo—but you just don’t do that, not without “help”…that’s why I lamented the passing they other day of the all-time home run king, and Mr Bonds is in fine health….
Given the fact that not only horses assigned the status ‘Deep Closer’ win races form positions deep within a field. Should a horse with tactical speed that closes form 19th to win in a 20 horse field, be classified as a deep closer in the particular race?
I guess I am trying to determine if it is appropriate to classify a horse with tactical speed, a deep closer in particular race. I really shouldn’t be confused regarding this issue. However, there are issues that can occur in a race that warrants a horse with tactical speed, assuming the role of a deep closer, without having the status previously assigned.
In the last 10 renewal of the KD, 5 winners were either on or near the lead. Two emerged from mid pack and the other 3 winners closed from deep within the field. Did the three winners that closed from deep, had the status ‘Deep Closer’ assigned prior to the KD?
I cannot recall Mine That Bird, Animal Kingdom and Orb being assigned the status of deep closer. However, all three closed from the back of the pack en-route to victory. Would stating that 3 of the last 10 KD winners were deep closers be inaccurate/inappropriate?
If a horse with tactical speed assumes the role of a deep closer in a particular race en-route to victory. It cannot be classified as anything other than a deep closer for purpose of the particular race. Who won the race? An entrant that closed form deep within the field i.e. a deep closer. Not a deep closer by virtue of pre-race status but based on performances.
I am unlikely to find any supporter of this space that will be in agreement with the conclusion contained in the above paragraph. But we agree to disagree.
TOP TWELVE
Of the 4 top ranked horses above I consider 3 to have the status of ‘Deep Closer’ due to their lack of serious tactical speed Many might disagree with Greatest Honour being classified as a deep closer because of his 4 1/2 and 1 1/2L finishes in a pair of 7F defeats. However, the slow fractions in both his 9F runner-up finish and his 8 1/2F win, suggest he is devious of serous tactical speed.
In KD field of 20 of Greatest Honour fastest opponents. I cannot see Greatest Honour being in the top 15 after the first 2F are completed. But there is always the likelihood that I am off the mark with this colt.
I remain of he opinion, that given the current trend, deep closers should never occupy 3 of the top 4 spots.
In the last 10 years
Hey Steve. I just discovered you moved over here after I was lamenting the loss of your DAILY DOZEN on the BLOODHORSE. I’m sure Bryon King knows what he’s writing about and I will follow his column but he has big steps to fill. The I reviewing comments from months ago and saw you promoting secretariat.com and found that you continue your Deeby list here. Glad to have found you and looks like a great site.
I wonder what you think of Carillo and Defeater, the two sons of Union Rags in addition to Spielberg, that recently broke their maidens impressively? And there was ab American Pharoah colt, Big Lake, who broke his maiden on the DIRT at the Fair Grounds on 01/16 going 1 1/16. I have no idea what his speed figure was but it would be nice to see an American Pharoah colt excel on the dirt at the top level.
Glad you found us, Erik. Bloodhorse DD foesnt even have comments anymore. I write about Carillo in the next DD. He looked great and has a bright future and I like he won at a mile. Big Lake looked just OK but I’m not sure how good that field was
Several trainers in Steve’s rankings have never had a Derby starter: Brad Cox (incredible but true), Todd Fincher, Robertino Diodoro, and Michael Stidham. Cox has the early favorite Essential Quality, plus Caddo River and Mandaloun. His maiden winner Prate was in the KDFW. Cox is holding a nice hand.
“Several trainers in Steve’s rankings have never had a Derby starter”
I am interested to know what’s the relevance of the above . Every trainer at some point in their careers’ never had a KD starter.
Todd Pletcher took out his trainer’s license in December 1995. He never had a KD starter until 2000 and he indicated what was to come. In the 2000 KD Todd Pletcher had 5 KD starter:
Impeachment 3rd
More Than Ready 4th
Trippi 11th
Balto Star 14th
Graeme Hall 19th
Ten year would elapse before TP secured his first KD winner.
Bob Baffert switched to tainting throughbreds in 1980. He didn’t have his first KD starter until 1996. Cavonnier was narrowly defeated in what is known in poker as a bad beat. He returned with a vengeance in 1997 & 1998 with successive winners. He is now the MAN of KD.
Chip Wolley never had a KD starter before 2009. He was the third trainer associated with Mine That Bird up to 2009. Had it not been for defections, Mine That Bird wouldn’t have made the KD field. The diminutive gelding scored one the most memorable KD victories in the last 50 years. Left in his wake was KD favorite Pioneerofthe Nile conditioned by the revered Bob Baffert.
Two revered trainers in the KD history were beaten with their first starter/s. One of those trainer had 5 starters in his first KD. The unknown Chip Wolley had his first KD starter with Mine That Bird. The gelding recorded a victory that no KD winner from the barns of either BB or TP has ever equal or surpassed.
There have been several other trainers that have won the KD with their first starter. This reason for questioning the relevance of your highlight.
Certified counseling services are available online.
Whenever you do respond to him he just ignores you
Here comes the childish cycle again…
1-every one is ganging up on me
2-how come I am not allowed to express my FACTS freely
3-good bye to all … I am not writing any more in here
4-Here I come again (forgetting your affronts and also the rules of the blog)
Prozac
Shug is not going to New York Greatest Honour staying in Fla to run in the Holy Bull I believe…..
Thanks Steve as always for your insight your the best….
Thanks Jerry more trainer misinformstion.
JIRAFALES
The subject Social Inclusion colt has captured by attention. Social Inclusion displayed excellent speed as racer. He established a NTR for 8 1/2F whilst decimating subsequent Met Mile and Whitney winner Honor Code.
The colt’s unraced dam was sired by South African TC winner Horse Chestnut. It’s not very often Horse Chestnut is featured as a dam sire. Being a grandson of Sadlers Wells, Horse Chestnut should be capable of producing a mare capable of producing a stakes caliber horse.
Jirafales was produced from a book of 55 mares bred by Social Inclusion. Small books of mares covered by talented racers, has in the past produced champions. What we have in Jirafales is product of the successful Mr. Prospector /Norther Dancer cross. A cross that has produce numerous winners of TC races.
Jirafales has one start which resulted a win over 6 1/2F at GPW. Post race comments were ae follows –
‘Bumped at the start and raced well back early. Advances 2W on the turn, 4W into the lane and drew off to win by 41/2L’.
The disclosure of way back early doesn’t indicate that the colt was about 10-12 lengths last in a 6 1/2 sprint. The colt also covered the last 25M on the wrong lead.
For a debutant to spot the field so much ground and erase a big deficit to win by 41/2L, suggest there is some amount of class represented. Given how he closed from last to win, the 8 1/2F of the Holy Bull should be right up his street. He did run a bit green on debut and if he has moved forward of his debut, I am of the opinion he has shown enough to be considered a live longshot.
RE: Holy Bull Stakes, Saturday, 1-30
It will be interesting to see which colt Luis Saez chooses to ride in referenced race, Greatest Honour or Mutasaabeq. After three previous starts in maiden races, Greatest Honour broke his maiden on his fourth try, with Luis Saez in the irons.
In five career starts, Luis Saez has always been aboard Mutasaabeq, most recently winning the Mucho Macho Man stakes, in a good time of 1:35.98. It could come down to which trainer Luis prefers, Shug McGaughey (Greatest Honour), or Todd Pletcher (Mutasaabeq). I’m hoping he lands on Mutasaabeq, my pick in the Holy Bull Stakes.
Safe trips to all.
No brainer. He’s not going off PLetcher who rides him all the time and a stakes winner to ride a maiden winner. Pletcher dont ike that.
Thanks for the reply
Yes, it would make sense that he’ll ride Mutasaabeq, but you never know, he might have a prior commitment to ride Greatest Honour for Shug.
You never know but Greatest Honour wasnt supposed to run here.
Mutasaabeq is out with a shin issue, so Luis Saez won’t be riding him.
Brilliant. Outstanding appraisal in week two. Well done. I expected exceptional but am still always surprised how great the Derby Dozen is week after week year after year decade after decade. Steve must still be young. He’s not a youngster but his mind sure is sharp, like someone much younger. Actually someone much younger couldn’t write like this or think like this. With people getting dumber by the day it is so refreshing to still see genius at work. Old guys rule. How about that touchdown by Brady at the end of the half? Shocking. Loved it.
Wow, you blew me away Porgy. Thank you so much for those glowing words. I think the Derby Rankings or Dozen whatever you wish to call it does in a way keep me young and my brain in high gear even after doing this for 22 years and founding Derby Watch at DRF in 1992. But I think its your words that keep me younger. I will try to live up to them
Many of us have at least two Brad Cox horses among our top 10 current Derby prospects. The soaring Trainer started his career in 2004 and after nine years climbing the learning curve he got his first Stakes winner in 2014. A gelding son of First Samurai named Carve came to his hand from Asmussen barn and immediately put him in winning ways; for a year and half Cox trained Carve to win 5 races from 15 stars, including two wins and placing in Stakes…
Brad Cox was then mostly receiving horses from other trainers and gradually proving his competence in the process.
Cox started his Derby endeavors in 2016 with Dazzling Gem who was third in the Louisiana Derby and fourth in the Arkansas Derby but could not get enough qualifying points. In 2018 his Derby attempt with High North also fell short.
In 2019 Owendale could not get points in the Risen Star before winning the Lexington Stakes and finishing third in the Preakness. That same year Night Ops did not pass the LeComte test.
Last year Cox was successful early in the Derby trail with Mr. Monomoy who won the Risen Star before an ankle injury shoot down any Derby aspirations … the son of Palace Malice never raced again. Then Godolphin’s Shared Sense made short lived waves.
This year a red carpet to the Derby has been laid in front of him thanks to credible prospects led by Essential Quality, Caddo River and Mandaloun.
Brad Cox reached a zenith in 2020 with five (5) individual Grade 1 winners, seven (7) Grade 2 horses and five (5) Grade 3 individual winners. He seems to be keeping that momentum this year as well.
One side of that success story is how he recovered Knicks Go after a winless 3-year-old campaign. An now it seems his “restoring program” is also working for Hidden Scroll … I wonder if Brad Cox is able to solve the mystery of Dennis’ Moment…!
it appear Romans operate a High Tech Program like some other top trainer. The type of program that leads to sudden and unexpected loss of form.
I doubt Cox can turn around Dennis’ Moment. He might just be irreparable goods. The promising Tapit colt Coliseum trained by Bob Baffert won impressively on debut . Two additional race later he lost his way an went MIA. he was subsequently turned over to Cox and had to be subsequently retired.
Haikal was turned over to Pletcher with the retirement of McLaughlin. The promising colt appears incapable of getting out of its own way.
Endorsed was turned over to Mott with the retirement of McLaughlin. The promising colt appears incapable of getting out of its own way. This a colt that won 6F in 1:08+
The damage done to Haikal and Endorsed seems irreparable.
Yes … mental and /or physical issues are sometimes very complicated. I feel that a good rest in the field and some beach diversions could make the trick in some cases…
Independence Hall seems to be regaining some form though… Paynter was close to a miracle.
REcalling the greates comeback in horse racing would be a very good topic…
True Timber won the Grade 1 Cigar Mile after going 0 for 19 in stakes company, starting with original trainer Kiaran McLaughlin then continued with Jack Sisterson until that win. There is hope for everyone.
Thanks for your reply Davids…That is a very good example and most recent as well!
You inspire me to hope I may still get drafted by the Yankees. Thank you.
Neither Knicks Go nor Hidden Scroll came out of High Tech Program. There is always hope for the resurrection of the careers of horse that have not been exposed and/or compromised by High Tech Programs.
Thank good ness for the “hope springs eternal” nature of horse racing and the 3 year old early spring.
The last year for most people has been at best , a usurping of precious time … aching for normality in some form, what can be more good- feeling than swinging back into this annual march of appreciation and fun of a triple crown pursuit?
I cant tell you what a breath of fresh air your columns are..
Thank you very much Marc. I apprciate that. Lets hope Mondays can provide a brief respite for everything going on in the world.
Well, I am going to keep an eye on Greatest Honour trained by Shug and Bezos trained by Baffert. But right now my list is Essential Quality, Senor Buscador, Caddo River and Life is Good for my top 4 right now. So much is going to change before the Derby if history is any indication. Saw the discussion about Baffert below. He is a public relations genius and as his career has progressed, he has built up relationships with the heavy hitters/owners. I am sure he points out the good ones to his clients. So, he gets great horses and his training style, along with Jimmy Barnes, is to train them hard with the intent they are really shooting for 1 great year as a 3 year old. So, if you have an incredibly talented horse like American Pharoah, who can tolerate the intense training, you just may have a TCW. Justify had more physical issues but Baffert was able to do just enough to get this also incredibly gifted horse to a TCW without a 2 year old race in him. So, his training methods have certainly paid off in a big way. The other side of that coin is that he also has quite a few very talented horses that can’t stand up to the training and are retired.
That just about says it all. Paula. Its actually a training philosophy used by the old time greats like Max Hirsch, Sunny Jim Fitzsimmon,s and John Gaver. You toughen them up to weed out the weak ones and the ones left are tough enough to handle the grind. Those guys however kept them going until 4, 5, and 6 because they were powerhouse stable homebreds and there were no Coolmore, Darleys, and WinStars around to snatch em up
Well that is one thing that has changed that has changed the sport, none of these colts racing past 3, just the mares. Not sure who will end up with the roses but enjoy the racing!!!!
Paula, not to forget the cabal of bloodstock agents/advisers/vets etc who sift out those with real potential.
I see one website lists Greatest Honour as probable for the Holy Bull If that is true then you know why I am very selective in the trainers I contact. That is why its always best to say “according to so and so.” Otherwise they make liars out of you. But we’ll see if he is entered tomorrow. Iam anxious to see how Prime Factor runs if he is entered and if he is as special as I thought he was when I ranked him high last week.
It’s funny … I was about to make the same comment about other publications “enrolling” the son of Tapit in the Holy Bull contrasting the first hand information given by you…
After reviewing how dominant Prime Factor was in his workouts I am starting to think he will be the trailblazer in the Florida route to the Derby…
Let’s see what happens!
They get their info from the racing office so it looks like Shug said one thing and is doing another. But we’ll see when entries come out
Bernardini mares are having a remarkable influence so early on. Let’s hope this continues.
Yes Indeed! the list of his grandsons and granddaughters is simply prodigious: Serengeti Empress, Catholic Boy, Dunbar Road, Hunter O’Riley, Maxfield, Mo Town, Paris Lights, Mopotism, Modernist, Owendale, Angel of Truth, Jasper Prince, Point of Honor, Shared Sense and Wicked Whisper.
Bernardini expands his Broodmare sire power overseas as well.
He got the Mexican Triple Crown Champion Kukulkan and other Mexican G1 winners in Kaifar and Lebron. Others in his list of accomplishment are Australian Derby winner Angel Of Truth, Turkish Group 1 winner Hasafet, Singapore Horse of the Year Qatar Man, and Saudi Arabian Group 1 winner Attaadah.
Last year Cezanne was hyped as one of Baffert’s best sophomore cards… he is getting ready to resume next month.
Bernardini’s last laurel as a grandpa was Colonel Liam winning the Pegasus WC Turf.
52 Stakes winners out of 548 runners as a Broodmare Sire is top quartile… but I have not seen any maternal grandson of Bernardini taking part in any Kentucky Derby.
2021 KD hopefuls include Prime Factor, Speaker’s Corner, Gretzky the Great and the useful Pico D’Oro… getting there….!
Forgot a nice one named Roman Centurian …!
and one that Steve liked earlier Parnelli is also a maternal grandson of Bernardini
Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another and Orb won consecutive KD. OK! What’s the point?
The three were the last deep closers to win the KD in the last 10 years. In the 10 year that preceded Animal Kingdom’s win, there were like wise three KD winners that were deep closers i.e., Mine That Bird, Street Sense and Giacomo.
Unless the tactical speed displayed by the last 7 winners of the KD, is just a phase. The KD appears to have evolved into a test of sustainable speed as opposed to a true test of stamina. Why Highlight the running style of the last ten KD winners?
The top 12 does not reflect the current trend. Unless there is speculation that there will be a reemergence of deep closers in 2021. Three of the top 5 are ambitiously ranked. Greatest Honour, Senor Buscador and Keepmeinmind running style will leave them severely compromised from a pace perspective.
Assuming some of the fastest members of Derby class of 2021 make the Derby field. The above three horses will be at the mercy of the pace. Many expected Authentic to falter in the final 1/2F in the KD. Bu the colt kept going. Admittely the fractions were so demanding, deep closers would be off the bridle early, just to keep in touch and consequently had mothing left for the stretch.
Although Essential Quality close from far off the pace in the BCJ. The colt cannot be considered a deep closer. In his debut over 6F, he caught up with the leaders very early whilst in hand and whilst 22, 45, 57 fractions were being recorded. In the Futurity he raced in 2nd before separating from opponents.
Given Essential Quality’s explosive turn of foot, the 3 colts ranked immediately below are not likely to out close a high cruiser with an explosive stretch run. They will have too much ground to cove to get on terms. A final gear to get by is likely to be non-existent.
The likes of Life Is Good and others ranked below the top five are by no mean cheep speed types. As they develop over the next 3 months, they are going to be able to sustain their speed with more efficiency.
If in fact the KD has evolved into a test of sustainable speed. Only the minor places on the board at best, will be available to deep closers. Given the trend over the last 7 years, the colts ranked at 2, 3, & 4 appear misplaced.
I take each year as a separate entity. I have found trends to be cyclical. We went 20 years without a favorite winning and 14 years without a speed horse winning .Now thy both win with regularity. I think the horses who won the Derby on or close to the pace were simply the best and most talented horses in that race. How many of those pace horses were longshots? They were well bet because they were the best horse in the race
There is no better race ……..for closers, than the derby………..name the great closers that lost, the last few years…….there is……um….then of course…..um………..yes…….THERE HASNT BEEN HARDLY ANY………the best horses have been winning…….why not just say that?…….
This year i hope will be the year of the closer…….
“Why not just say that?” I thought I did say that.
LMAO
totally agree….I’ll Have Another was not a closer, nor was Fusiachi Pegasus– nor was Real Quiet—they were stalkers who became closers in the Derby, because when you put 20 in the gate….a quarter mile straight….and 150,000 screaming fans….you tend to get pace! There is nothing like The Kentucky Derby for wagering, you handicap the horses….the riders….the posts……and the bloodlines, although I don’t do much of that.
greetings all and thank you Mr. Haskins for your always exciting columns.
regarding the controversial BEZOS. the detail that he has been included in the Derby Futures Wager pool should not be viewed as an injustice, but a reflection of the actual realities of the game. To view it as a moral question — some deserving steed being eliminated in his place — overlooks what this market mechanism is to do: it selects for optimization through prediction.
BB has changed the game, and overracing as a 2 yo -indeed almost any race as a 2 yo — has become a strategy for failure. We are already well into the 21st century, and BB has uncovered a new method — some will say it is the method of his medicine cabinet, but so be it — and the success of this method has been shown in hard “Darwinian” reality: his unprecedented accomplishments.
BEZOS does not need to race in the breeders cup juvenile, or in some meaningless maiden in the ghetto of los alamitos in october, or even december. BB most certainly has read Clausewitz, and understands that strategic situations, by their very definition change.
in the case of this individual BEZOS, knowing that he has the genetics, and knowing what the objective is (another key Clausewitizian insight), BB accordingly has selected a new method under new conditions: intense work outs vs. intelligent veterans such as Mastering, etcetera, and getting the race he needs at what Clausewitz called the “SCHWERPUNKT”. In this case, the SCHWERPUNKT is of course the first saturday in May (barring COVID or other disruptions, but this is part of what Clausewitz called the inevitable “fog of war”).
When considering BEZOS’ genetics, BB’s success and his method, BEZOS is a deserving candidate for inclusion during any meditations on the Kentucky Derby winner, and any artificial intelligence like AlphaGo would certainly not ignore him, but emphatically underline that, as the horse punters say: “BEZOS is live.”
Thank you for your artculate and intelligent take on this. I understand what your saying, but still not sure I agree with it, as we really have nothing to determine the talents of the horse. Baffert said he never spoke to Churchill Downs so they obviously got wind of of him through Las Vegas or the rumor mill. He may turn out to be special but this could set a bad precedent and make astute handicappers go by word of mouth rather than their own handicapping skills.
“BB has changed the game, and over racing as a 2 yo”
You have made the subject statement and therefore I consider you uniquely qualified to address the following questions and points.
Jim Fitzsimmons won the TC with Gallant Fox & Omaha – Both TC winners raced as 2YOs. Is there any reference in history that Mr. Fitzsimmons changed racing?
Ben Jones saddled 6 KD winners. Mr. Baffert has saddled a similar number. Is there any reference in history that Mr. Jones changed racing?
When exactly did Mr. Baffert change racing?
If not for the late surge by Grindstone in the 1997 KD, BB would have won three consecutive KD i.e., Cavonnier (1997); Silver Charm (1998); Real Quiet (1999). Three years after Real Quiet s KD win, Bob won with War Emblem (2002). In a 6 year period BB won the KD 3 times. Was BB deemed to have changed racing then? Or was he just deemed to be experiencing an unprecedented?
The man you have cited to have changed racing, didn’t win the KD for the 12 year from 2003 to 2014. Despite having a combined 10 starters in 8 of the 12 years. BB has again won 3 KDs in a 6 year period. If he was not deemed to have changed racing with his 3 win in a previous 6 year period. Why should he be viewed as changing racing with his 2nd good run in a similar 6 period?
The man that you have cited to have changed racing racing had 3 entrants in the 2019 KD i.e., Game winner (2YO Champion);Improbable (post time favorite) and Roadster (Impressive SA Derby winner). None of the 3 hit the board in the original order of finish. It is inconceivable that the man that changed racing, would finish off the board with such a trio. The 2019 KD reflects BB has change racing but is the subject of some element of luck. Just like many other trainers.
Would Authentic have won the KD if it was contested on the designateted May date? Neither Nadal nor Charlatan made the rescheduled KD. However, if both were fit and well. Would Charlatan have been directed to the original May KD with only 2 starts? Would Nadal have been able to defeated Maxfield if the colt that was robber of the Eclipse for Champion 2YO, was an entrant?
Authentic was one of the many beneficiaries of the rescheduled KD. There was no genius involved his win. He was a next out loser to a filly.
Curlin made his debut as 3YO. He participated in all three TC races. He finished 3rd; 1st & 2nd. Neither the 2015 nor the 2018 3YO crop that produced American Pharaoh and Justify were as good as the 2007 class. This class produced Street Sense, Hard Spun , Any Given Saturday Tiago, Rags To Riches and Zenyatta. Curlin could easily have been an undefeated TC winner if not belonging to such a talent crop. Did Curlin’s trainer discover the benefits of not starting talented horse as 2YOs?
Bernardini made his debut as a 3YO. It is unlikely Barbabro would have f=defeated him in the KD if he had the graded earning to make the cut. He went on to decimate opponents. It took the older and ultra talented Invasor to lower his colors.
Bob Baffert is on another good run. After his previous good run, he went 12 years without winning the KD. He has been defeated in the KD with as many as 3 if not 4 favorites. He has no more changed dirt racing than Chad Brow has turf racing.
An unraced horse from BB barn being listed as betting interest in the KDFP represent an insult to all other trainers with talented unraced 3YOs. Prevalence performed like a 3YO for whom the sky is the limit. Why wasn’t he listed as an unraced betting, Why restrict speculation to one barn?
I think what separates Baffert from the others is that he gets numerous brilliant 3-year-olds year after year after year. Some make the Derby and others dont but they all have their moments where people are amazed by them. It is those sheer number of exciting brilliant horses every year that has people stunned and also scratching their heads how he does it.
Well said. Baffert does get a huge number of well-bred, expensive horses with high expectations from the connections and the public, and it is exciting to watch them develop. As you said, not all of them will make the Derby, but the promise is there. And I think that plays into why CDI is including Bezos as a separate choice in the Future Wager pool. There are probably a lot of people who would like to “get in on the ground floor” with an exciting prospect, in this case an unraced one, and perhaps get a nice price in the bargain. If he goes on to win the Derby, how prescient they would look! Baffert horses of all ages and conditions get overbet on a regular basis, and I think this is just another reason why CDI is attempting to give the people what they want. (I may not be qualified to evaluate this, since I don’t bet, but it seems fairly obvious.)
Well he learned from some of the best for starters. He also has gathered together a pretty good team to help him. He can’t do it all by himself so getting the right team together is just about as important
Unlikely Barbaro would have defeated Bernardini? Barbaro was never defeated, and won the Derby by from here to across the street, Bernardino was good too….could have been a great rivalry….
Los Al had bigger field size in average in December than Santa Anita or Del Mar had this past year—of course it was because of the Golden Gate closure–but the track stepped up and became a one mile oval because of the sudden closure of Hollywood Park–Ghetto? Look at their two futurities and tell me those aren’t top horses…as far as your genetics opinion goes—I’ve seen plenty of your genetics running in those 4 1/2 furlong races—at Los Al….
Why people don’t understand…….these horses that have no starts, or 1 start, have had setbacks……..is hard to understand……
Bezos…..like many…….WAS working earlier…….he had an issue…….off works…..i have been the one touting him all over for a couple of months…….i was looking at all bob’s horses work……i could not see any, i thought were special…….i thought medina looked better than his stablemate first time out, even though medina was higher odds that day…….but BEZOS LOOKED THE BEST OF THEM ALL……
Do you have documented proof you said that a couple of months ago? lol
Steve, your new elastic fluid movement of the Derby Rankings is a wonderful innovation. Moreover, the freedom of the writer to radical change the order, as compared to the Derby Dozen, allows for a more playful tone. Racing is fun, not mathematics. Lol.
We’ll see if Greatest Honour has matured over the winter in the Withers Stakes. His conqueror, Caddo River, impressed last out so, hopefully, Greatest Honour will follow suit. The distance of the Withers should provide an indication of stamina.
Although it’s way too early to judge, there appears to be a raft of gifted 3 year olds this year which makes for a more arduous task of delineating the ranking order. Good luck with that, Steve. Onward and upward. Thanks, again, for all your hard work.
“Racing is fun, not mathematics”
Distance of race are represent by furlong – numbers involved
Horses as assigned weight/handicaps – numbers involved
Post position – numbers involved
Fractions /Finals times recorded in races – numbers involved
Over weight – numbers involved
Excess distance travelled – Numbers involve
I contend there is an element of mathematics involved in racing. There can be fun crunching the numbers.
“We’ll see if Greatest Honour has matured over the winter in the Withers Stakes.”
It is inevitable that a horse of Greatest Honour’s age, will undergo maturity as its has not attained the age of full maturity. With the passage of time all young horses undergo maturity. But just at different stages. Given the aforementioned Greatest Honour neither has a has monopoly on maturity nor the rate thereof. All the opponents Greatest Honour is likely to meet next out would have under gone some amount of maturity subject to assessment.
Obviously some entrants in a race may have a maturity advantage due to date of birth. However, mental maturity isn’t necessarily driven by physical maturity.
I concur that the Derby class of 2021 contains some very talented members.
yet…..you dont go on numbers……you dont use track variants
Coldfacts, the ‘mathematics’ comment was merely being facetious, with attempted humor. Some family members in Europe and Australia own bookmaking firms. Since childhood, numerical importance has been ‘drummed’ into the psyche. Sometimes you just want the ‘freedom’ to indulge the fun of racing.
. Thanks David. I am definitely trying to make it more light and fun ths year. Bloodhorse wanted me to limit it to 2,500 words while here at Secretariat.com I can write as long as I want as you can see. I dont have the audience here I had at Bloodhorse and I appreciate several of you coming over from there and hopfully others will stop by as we go along.
Hi Steve, great analysis as always. I’ve liked Keepmeinmind all along and still do. Also I’m interested in Red Flag and I expect Highly Motivated to make some noise on the Derby Trail.
Thanks, I was so high on Red Flag and was prepared to rank him very high, but his last race was terrible and he never changed leads, looled like he was staggering in the stretch. I cant wait to see him again. I am goiing check in with Shirreffs and see what he says
Steve Pedigree Ann asked if there is anyone who can help her form her “Derby stable” for a contest, and I steered her this way—wasn’t easy to post, though…seems you cannot say “Haskin”….or “Secretariat” on the blog over there….but I was able to say “1973 Triple Crown”…and “a certain person”….
Over where, at Bloodhorse? You cant say my name? Tell her to come here…I just went to Bloodhorse Derby Dozen and they dont even have comments. Where wasnt it easy to post. You have me totally confused.
Steve, I posted a comment at The Blood-Horse using “Steve Haskin and Secretariat” it wasn’t rejected nor put on hold. Perhaps, Mathew used a ‘banned word’ without realising it.
I tried to tell her to go to the Secretariat/ Steve Haskin site ant was censured twice
You still havnt told me where it was banned. Cant be Bloodhorse, they dont take comments. I assure you it wasnt here bcause she mentioned my name and certainly not because of Secretariats name. If you dont want to mention th website here you can email me at sehaskin@aol.com. I might have an idea which one it is.
That’s interesting Matthew, I advised “Kaye from PA” in Steve’s last Derby Dozen, May 5, 2020 that “ Steve Haskin has a new blog at secretariat dot com”.
Perhaps, the “Unlocking Winners” blog is monitored for ‘miscreant’ posts. Ha ha
David i went to unlocking winners and typed my name and it showed up fine
Thank you for all of this. What I am not seeing here though are any offspring from past or rather recent past derby winners. Pretty sure Pletcher has a Chrome 3 yr old colt that I watched the race and was just very green but nothing from American Pharoah? Nothing from AP at all? Just tossing that out there.
California Chrome doesn’t have a stellar pedigree. His prospect of being a dominant sire is as much a longshot as was his performance on the track.
Triple Crown winners have not been stellar stallions. The three in the modern era that preceded AP and Justify, didn’t produce a lot of KD type progenies. Seattle Slews was the best of the three. Secretariat and Affirmed were grossly disappointing. I do not expect either or Justify to be stellar stallions.
Kentucky Derby winner have a dismal record in the TC series. The last 2 KD winner to sire a KD winner were Seattle Slew and Unbridled.
Secretariat did not really throw great colts but thought he was a great broodmare sire. Can’t knock the Slew at all. As for Chrome he did surprise a lot of people with what he did on the track but never really got any good book of mares so is what it is.
With all the really high stud fees on Pharoah would have thought maybe at least one contender in here. Then again maybe they overbooked him. Thanks for the answer. Let the races begin!!!
American Pharoah has had quite a bit of success at stud including a Breeder’s Cup win by one of his offspring. However, it seems his runners have been more successful on the grass, than on dirt and also going shorter distances. Regarding distance ability, this may be simply because most of his runners have been juveniles and juvenile races are shorter.
California Chrome has had a fair amount of winners; 16 I believe, but the majority of his offspring are running at lower levels. I’ve only seen one compete in a stakes race and hit the board.
Which AP offspring do you think is being short changed here? If he throws a foal worthy of inclusion, I’m sure we will see it here. So far he has not produced as well as far cheaper studs.
Hello Steve, I just watched the BC Juvenile Turf replay and was very impressed by Fire at Will. As you noted he is firing bullets at GP, so running on dirt should be no problem for him. I like the way he stalked the pace and was full of run at the wire in the Juv. Turf. Are you confident that they will try a KY Derby points race for him next? Maybe the FOY or TB Derby? He will likely be big odds in KDFW3 in mid Feb. seeing that he went off at 45-1 in KDFW2. What’s your impression of Fire at Will Steve as a potential KY Derby horse?
I like him as well.
oh oh………the old man is right…….GREATEST HONOUR CAN RUN……..just watched him…….
LOL. Glad you finally made it over. We’ll be taking more chances this year and not necessarily going the conventional route based solely on past accomplishments. And there will be more juggling the rankings around. Much more relaxed atmosphere here.
Well….there’s a “click” over there—a guy makes “Sunday observations” and if you disagree with anything he says—there’s a guy who attacks you as being “disrespectful” ….and I try to say it’s Horse Racing, where we all have our opinions—that’s what’s so great about Horse Racing—but the click gets entrenched…it’s better here, it always has been….
What do you mean by a “click” s that a person or a group? Are you referring to a diferent website when you say over there?
Thanks once again Steve for a great look at the Derby scenario — now my favorite aspect of Mondays!
Say…does Barclay Tagg have any promising runners this year? I’ve been a fan of his since the Funny Cide days….
Hi Steve, nothing for Barclay yet.
WOW…………i havent looked on here yet ……bet my futures…..thought i would check out what the old man thinks……..i’m really good at spotting derby talent……..i also think the old man is good at this too…..we agree alot usually……..
Then i come on here……..and wow……again?…..i have 3 horses i love……
KEEPMEINMIND, SENOR BUSCADOR, CADDO RIVER…….
19-1 , 36-1?…OR AROUND THERE…..caddo…..i told people they should wait for next pool, he wasnt gonna run anyway…..ive never bet 3….may have to….
The old man has them 3,4,5……..i’m impressed……
I haven’t even looked at his #2…..i better go look…..
I have been saying for months…i havent been impressed by any of bob’s…….and i’m the only one posting LIFE IS GOOD hasn’t worked since the 11th……..why work the 11th?…..and not work now?……..all answers= not good
Whats with all this old man talk? You trying to make me feel old?: As I explained to someone else about Life is Good, trainers dont like little things getting out so lets just say Baffert has had a little virus running through his barn but Life is Good is doing OK now.
yes……i believe a trainer should NEVER talk about his horse……….knew something was up, knew he wouldnt say………
But, guess what?………we are more educated about viruses now……so, although i agree…..it is better that its a virus……there are REASONS why we catch them, and some don’t…….one can argue, a horse with an issue gets a virus, more than a horse that is more healthy…………sometimes just a virus isn’t…….if you follow me…….it is true………
But my real issue…..is he doesnt relax…….he is going to have to be great……because this is a big flaw……he is very very headstrong……these type get hurt too……
Thanks Steve, appreciate your information and effort. Your rankings and other articles is something I look forward to each week.
Thank you very much Jeff. Trying to keep it light and fun this year.
Super early days…it’s mostly all I can do to come up with a horse for next weekend, so kudos to you for having been so on point with this year after year…but I have kind of had my mind on Greatest Honour. Love the breeding, love Shug
“but I have kind of had my mind on Greatest Honour.”
The colt has made 4 starts with 1 win with all starts being in MSWs.
Why do you have your mind on this colt?
Of the colts with the top 5 resumes, which can he defeat and over what distance?
WOW…………i havent looked on here yet ……bet my futures…..thought i would check out what the old man thinks……..i’m really good at spotting derby talent……..i also think the old man is good at this too…..we agree alot usually……..
Then i come on here……..and wow……again?…..i have 3 horses i love……
KEEPMEINMIND, SENOR BUSCADOR, CADDO RIVER…….
19-1 , 36-1?…OR AROUND THERE…..caddo…..i told people they should wait for next pool, he wasnt gonna run anyway…..ive never bet 3….may have to….
The old man has them 3,4,5……..i’m impressed……
I haven’t even looked at his #2…..i better go look…..
I have been saying for months…i havent been impressed by any of bob’s…….and i’m the only one posting LIFE IS GOOD hasn’t worked since the 11th……..why work the 11th?…..and not work now?……..all answers= not good
Drain the Clock, impressive winner of the Limehouse Stakes, (1:10.11, by 7 1/2L) at GP, is entered in the 7 furlong Swale Stakes. As you know, no Derby points are on the line, but the winner will probably advance to the Fountain of Youth. His pedigree reflects speed of top, (Maclean’s Music), and stamina influence of the bottom, (Arch). In the event he makes an impressive performance in the Swale, I’m hoping he makes the KOTD segment, next week.
Mr. Dawson,
All the best for the New Year.
The Maclean’s Music sired Cloud Computing defeated the KD winner Always Dreaming and Champion 2YO Classic Empire in the Preakness. Interestingly he never won another race. Could the 9 1/2F of the Preakness ruined Cloud Computing?
Champagne winners Complexity and Jackie’s Warrior, two Maclean’s Music progenies appear to be stamina challenged. But based on the mystery of pedigree, Drain the Clock could be the Maclean’s Music that is competitive over 10F at the highest level of the 3YO division.
One never knows!
Thanks for the reply Coldfacts
Another colt that’s good my attention is Mandaloun, currently #9 on the DD list. IMO, he checks a lot of boxes, and is in the capable of hands of hot trainer Brad Cox. Ms. Laurie Ross, lead pedigree analyst for HRN, pointed out he’s is a likely carrier of the X-Factor large-heart gene. She named the horses on Mandaloun’s dam side that were known carriers of the gene. He showed good speed, winning both sprint races leading up to Lecomte, which was his first test for class and distance. I thought his 3rd place finish was respectable, and he proved distance should not be a problem moving forward. I know you like homebred colts, so this Juddmonte Farms horse, by hot sire, Into Mischief fits the bill. This past weekend, in the KD Futures Pool #2, he was 99-1, but dropped to 42-1 at the close of betting. I decided to wait to see how he does in the Risen Star, where he’s pointed. The problem is if he does win that race, he’ll drop to single digits, no doubt.
Nice 2nd list Steve, good assessments on all of them. I am sticking with Jackie’s Warrior for now along with Caddie River & Life is Good. I am keeping a watchful eye on Bezos, I kinda like what I see.
Nice job sir…….
Jackie’s Warrior:
The last Champagne winner to win the KD was Sea Hero (1993). He likewise finished outside the top 3 in the BCJ. Had a lot more stamina in his pedigree than JW.
As I have mentioned to you multiple times I do not pay attention to what happened a zillion years ago.
Today’s racing is so much different now and I do not think I have to give examples, this is stuff you know.
Justify unraced at age 2 won the Triple Crown…….. when did that happen last “Apollo” ??
If you do not like a horse I like that is cool with me, I respect that but I do not and never will buy into what some other horse, jockey and stable did 40-50 years ago. To me, that is a poor way to handicap a race.
I have a short list of 3YOs that are not amongst the top dogs in the division. In fact, they are probable not amongst the level below. But I think they are money makers next out.
LEBLON
I have been waiting for a top class colt from the bred in the purple stallion Broken Vow. (Unbridled out of Wedding Vows by Nijinsky). I must concede my wait seem likely in vain. But I keep looking.
The subject colt by Broken Vow, broke its maiden in its 4th start which was over 9F completed in 1:51+. Its previous 3 starts included two over 8 1/2F in which he finished 2nd & 3rd. Given his roster of races, their internal fractions and final times. It appears this colt is devoid of tactical and finishing speed. He might just be a grinder and/or plodder.
The colt’s lack of speed could be directly related to the stamina reflected in its first 3 generations. His sire was a router. His dam sire is Giant’s Causeway a mega router on turf. His 2nd dam was sired by Seattle Slew. With Mr. Prospector as 3rd dam sire. One could conclude that serious speed in 4 generations away.
As per Equibase, the colt has been working at The Thoroughbred Center. Of his last 5 recorded works 2 were at 4F and 2 at 6F. He recorded average times of 49+ & 1:15+. In the 5th and latest work, he covered 5F in 1:00. It was the fastest of his last 5 works over the distance.
This colt clearly has stamina. If he has improved in the speed department since his last start. I am hoping to cash in before the public catches on to his ability. He does have a 10F pedigree but devoid of the requisite speed to record a competitive time for the distance. Well, not as yet.
I do not know all the rules associated with Kentucky Derby Future Wager. However, if there is no rule barring an unraced horse being listed as betting interest. One should be instituted.
I am appalled that despite BEZOS being unraced he was listed as a betting interest and even more appalled that folks placed wagers on him. There has been some acts of craziness in the last couple of weeks due to allegiance to particular individual. It appears the craziness has been extended to thoroughbred wagering due to idolization of another individual.
If BEZOS was not trained by Bob Baffert would he have been listed as a betting interest? Highly unlikely!
I have been on record advising the Bob Baffert fan club that he does not have a Midas Tough. But I was unaware Churchill Down views the Mr. Baffert as having same.
Cezanne the $3.65M Curlin colt was viewed as something special. He must have checked all the boxed to attract such a final bid. After impressing in his first 2 starts against modest opposition. He contested the ungraded Shared belief. He could only managed 4th and hasn’t been seen since.
Uncle Chuck the Uncle Mo colt was very impressive in his first 2 career starts. He was viewed a somethin special particularly after his win in the Las Al Derby. He was shipped to NY to contest the 10F Travers. Despite the presence of dominant Tiz The Law and the colt’s lack of experience, many of the BB faithful’s expect him to win. He finished a badly beaten 6th.
Justify won the KD without making a start as a 2YO. Justify was the best of a modest crop. Good Magic who won the BCJ as a maiden, finished 2 1/2L 2nd to Justify in the KD. Justify won the Preakness by a diminishing 1/2L. Justify’ s best opponent in the Belmont was a colt previously based in Britain that was making its dirt debut and fist start beyond 8F.
The Derby class of 2018 doesn’t compare to the one emerging in 2021. This therefore means BEZOS has to be significantly better than Justify to emerge the dominant colt of the Derby class of 2021.
From 2003 to 2014, (12 years) Bob Baffert didn’t win the KD despite having a combined 10 starters in 8 of the 12 years. In 2019, none of his 3 starters hit the board in the original order of finish. BB is on a good run at the moment. But this doesn’t erase the section of his Derby history that reflect he doesn’t have a Midas Tough as it relates to the KD.
BEZOS could be as special as assessed. However, until he proves special when it matters. It’s just an assessment. I consider the Future Wager as a sucker wager. Wagering on an unraced betting interest, makes it a sucker wage to the 2nd power.
If you had started with the last paragraph, you wouldn’t have needed to write the rest of it.
I said the same thing in one paragraph but he makes good points. No way he’s on there if he wasnt trained by Baffert
True. But if a person believes the FW is a “sucker wager,” why would that person bother to write 500 words on the subject? 😉
Life Is Good had a near-bullet 4f work on January 11, only 9 days after his Sham Stakes win. But two weeks later, he hasn’t worked again. Is there something up with him that I haven’t read about?
Yes, but nothing to worry about. I told Baffert I wouldnt mention it bcause you know trainers how they dont want the little thngs to get out. Lets just say BB has had a little bug go through the barn. But hes fine now. If he doesnt work in the next week then you have to look into it more closely
P.S. I did lower him one spot.
Thanks, Steve. You da man!
Hello Steve, sorry to hear that Olympiad is on the shelf, I bet him in KDFW2. He had been posting recent works and that’s why I bet him. Another Bill Mott horse, Speakers Corner also looks to be on the shelf because he hasn’t posted a work since November. I guess that’s the risk of playing the futures, you have to keep them healthy to get them into the gate.
You can thank Churchill Downs for not doing their job in checking on these horses before asking people to bet on them. As for Speakers Corner I texted Bill about him and he never answered me.
What I have liked best is that you add the, on the radar, because that’s where some of the horses I follow end up
I’m kind of excited to see if any of the Into Mischiefs can move up the list. Am really a fan of Life is Good and Mutasaabeq.
Also liked what I saw from Medina Spirit and Prevalence. The in depth descriptions and details you provide are sadly missing in the Blood Horse version. Your thoughts get me thinking and watching more races
Sorry meant knocking on the door
Thank you Laurie. I knew what you meant. I am reallyy orne what to do with Mustasaabeq. He is very versatile and maybe hes so workmanlike that he doesnt leave a big impression but he is close to making the Rankings
What I have liked best is that you add the, on the radar, because that’s where some of the horses I follow end up
I’m kind of excited to see if any of the Into Mischiefs can move up the list. Am really a fan of Life is Good and Mutasaabeq.
Also liked what I saw from Medina Spirit and Prevalence. The in depth descriptions and details you provide are sadly missing in the Blood Horse version. Your thoughts get me thinking and watching more races
Sorry for the delay answering the questions and comments. I think I am all caught up.
Brad Cox is in a zone. Assuming soundness – always a worry – Essential Quality wins the Derby the same racing year Sheikh Mo shook off that other elusive goal, the Melbourne Cup.
He has two others with two differeent trainers
Godolphin won the Melbourne Cup in 2018 with Cross Counter.
So glad these are back! I missed this column. Such a fun and insightful read – getting caught up for this year so hopefully will have more thoughtful comments later on!
I’m trying, Collier. Trying to make it as infornative and entrtaining as possible
https://youtu.be/_SiybsS8wT4 Take a good look at #3 GHAZAALY in this race. Was up with leaders , fell far back to last , closed like a rocket to get 3rd. Just missed 2nd. This horse is a MONSTER. Hope they put him in a KD points race next. SNEAKY GOOD !
Yes I noticed that and forgot to mention it with so much else going on. He did hang a bit in the final furlong for second, but it was a great recovery. I had been watching him and thought he was going to finish last. But Pletcher horses often come on after looking like they are going nowhere on the turn.
Thanks Steve fun to read
So happy to read these each week and to see three Tapit’s listed!
Steve,
I do really like and appreciate that you are willing to put on your list horses not on the “radar” of most and take a chance on them. Bold picks that should be at least considered…What I like best though, whether it is my pick or not, is your willingness to stand by a horse others are so quickly to discount, because you see something in them that might be Derby material! I don’t understand the Thoro-Graph stuff you make reference to, but always pay attention to what you say about horses who did “well” with their numbers on it.
How is Derby material determined? I suspect each individual has a method of making such determination. Whilst there are common guidelines used in the assessment of KD potential, there will be differences between individuals in the final assessment. Most folks will defend their conclusion. This defense is on unique.
The KD allows for 20 starters. Would you consider every entrant as Derby Material?
I would not consider 20 entrants as Derby material…I look for a horse who can get ten furlongs as well as the prep distances—I look for a horse who can finish–this weekend I will look for the finishers in the Lewis—I agree with Steve about Mandaloun—beautiful horse, good horse—third the other day but I came out of it thinking he’s the one of the three close finishers in the Lecomte to keep an eye on….but I think it’s totally wide open right now, 7-1 on Life is Good is mind-boggling—the best price on the futures board–to me–was the 9/5 on “all-others”.
I had explained it last year Sherri, but simply the lower the number the faster the race. Anything under zero is very fast and we havent seen anyone come close to that yet this year. But you want steady progression more than running fast numjbers early in the year. Great to see you here. Now all I need to know is the Derby horse of a little racing fan we know
The elevation of Greatest Honour from the previous ranking of #5 to #2. I was forced to revisit the colt’s PPs.
Debut 7F- He was 31/2L behind in the stretch and was 4 1/2L (3rd) at finish. (He lost ground in the stretch)
2nd start 7F – He was 3L behind in the stretch and was 1 1/2L (3rd) at finish. (Reduced deficit by 1 1/2L)
3rd start – 9F – He was engaged in a stretch and went down by a HD (2nd) (Fast surface, slow fractions & Finaltime 1:55+)
4th start – 81/2F – Closed off the pace to be 1L in a stretch. Went by leader with 1 1/2L to spare. ( Modest fractions; Workmanlike win)
The #2 ranking assigned to Greatest Honour appears unjustified. But that’s my opinion and not the one that counts. When the resume of the #1 ranked Essential Quality is compared to that of a last out MSW winner that required 4 starts to break its maiden. It infares he is the 2nd best colt to the Champion 2YO designate. An over the top interpretation. Probably!
The same set of facts can by analyzed and different conclusions reached. Greatest Honour finished 2nd & 3rd in a pair of 7F to what appears to be 3 top level colts. In the 1st of the 7F he lost ground in the stretch. In the 2nd he reduced his 3L deficit by 1 1/2L. Give how hard ridden Greatest Honour was in his maiden breaker. He must have been equally hard ridden to keep pace in his 7F losses.
The colt has displayed ability but he is some what similar to another Tapit i.e., Tacitus. Even Tacitus appears to have a higher cruising speed. In a modest filed of maidens and with fractions of 24,48,1:13. Greatest Honour was hard ridden from a long way out to get on terms with the leaders. He was likewise hard ridden to secure and sustain the lead. An obviously tire colt had a very short gallop out.
In time this colt could be elevated to #2. But at this stage of the KD Trail, he hasn’t earned the #2 slot.
You should know by now this is not about resumes it is about looking ahead and projecting what we might see on the first Saturday in May. You make too many comparisons to what horses did in the past and not what they might do in the future. You have to look for things that others might not see. It’s not black and white as you suggest. You have to take a shot once in a while or it is boring.
I did pick Essential Quality for the BC Juvenile in my contest. But only because I thought he would get me more money if he ended up 2nd or possibly 1st. I did think Jackie’s Warrior would win the BC Juvenile at low odds. Now, in the new year, I just feel like going with my heart and neither of them lol…even though it does make logical sense for you to have Essential Quality #1…I really hope this year’s Derby is thrilling with either a horse from the back of pack running up to win it or a horse with a good “story” or a horse with connections, be it the trainer or owners and/or jockey who has never won the Derby. It gets old when the same people keep winning it every year!
Steve, isn’t your number one selection trained by the same trainer that brought Knights Go to winning form for the Pegasus! That’s sounds encouraging to me! P.s. I have more to read!
I’m not going to comment on Knicks Go, Carole :). I will keep that to myself
Why the secrecy? Or is it an insider joke and over my head? I would love to know more of your thoughts on last weekend’s Pegasus. Do you have anywhere that you write about topics other than the Derby trail these days?
Midnight Bourbon is my first horse this year. Way to early of course but I am also keeping my eyes on any horse trained by Shug. Because well, his long time relationship with the Phipps Stable. Buckpasser was my all time favorite racehorse. I react emotionally to horses and pick my favorites accordingly. Always nice to have a calm voice of reason providing much needed information. Thank you Steve.
Well, there is a Shug horse at No. 2 this week even though Coldfacts doesnt like it 🙂
Love this column Steve. I am excited for this year’s Derby. I will wait several more weeks until I have my eye on a horse or horses. Love it!!
I always go directly to the KNOCKING ON THE DOOR section to see if horses that have impressed me are mentioned. Well, I am a bit disappointed ROCK YOUR WORLD was not mentioned. But I understand not all promising MSW winner can be covered.
Why I am of the opinion Rock Your World deserve mention?
01/01/2021- Debut – 6F SA Park; Fractions – 21.71; 44.92; 56.64;1:08.47
Rock Your World was 31/2L behind the leaders in the stretch before taking the lead a the 1/4 pole and kicking clear. Is that the type of 6F debut expected from a CANDY RIDE colt? Yes, the really good ones:
Vekoma – Debut 6F won in 1:08.93
Shared Belief Debut – 6F won in 1:09.93
Mastery – Debut 6F eon in 1:09.56
I am of the opinion that any colt by Candy Ride out of a Medaglia D’ Oro mare, with Giant’s Causeway as 2nd dam sire, that wins 6F in 1:08+, deserve to be considered for most Derby lists. The $650K purchase has breezed 4F & 5F handily since his debut win.
He is a possible starter in the Bob Lewis. The fact that he is entered against the likes of Medina Spirit, Spielberg, Hot Rod Charlie, Wipe The Slate, Roman Centurian and Rombauer, suggest the colt’s connections think very highly of him.
Rock Your World has shown G1 speed over a sprint distance. He has a pedigree that screams routing. Could he be another exception Candy Ride progeny? We will make that determination after the Bob Lewis.
NB: I hope he doesn’t paddle.
Please correct the damsire to Empire Maker instead of Medaglia D’Oro.
Rock Your World wasnt mentioned for one reasons… I missed him because I normally dont mention grass races. I admit I miss one occasionally but its hard keeping up with maiden grass races. Why you are comparing a grass race to those other horses races on dirt is beyond me.
No reason why he shouldnt take to dirt, but once he does he certainly would be a fascinating horse to watch.
Hey Coldfacts
Keep in mind, Rock Your World recorded that 1:08.47 on turf. By all indications, RYW will not run in the Robert B. Lewis.
Wondered if you saw the 6th race at Gulfstream on Saturday. I was watching that one because a half to Justify (Stage Raider) was entered. The horse that won (Prevalence) did so extremely impressively. A son of Medaglia d’Oro, out of a Ghostzapper mare. I also noted that he’s 4×5 Damascus. I realize he just broke his maiden in that race, but he looked like he could run all day and carry speed. Might be one to keep an eye on.
Okay! I missed it! You DEFINITELY saw it. This is one I, personally, will be watching very, very closely!
As will everyone 🙂
Steve , Any word on VITTORIO ???
Unfortunately he hasnt worked since August
Thought you might have some inside info on him.
I watched Midnight Bourbon win the Lecompte with a different jockey and different style. There have been lots of horses caught on that long Fairgrounds stretch but Midnight just kept running. It will be interesting to see if Steve Asmussen keeps him at FG or moves him to Oaklawn.
Actually I have found a lot of horses in front keep going at FG, but it was a game effort for sure and he should improve off it
Hi Steve,
It’s great having your column to look forward to to kickstart our Mondays. Love that anecdote about Tiznow and the New England Patriots. Midnight Bourbon is my favorite of the Derby prospects so far, but we have a loooong ways to go.
Two things Steve—Roman Centurian did not win his first start–he won his first time two turns, was soundly defeated in the Life Is Good maiden race….and I heard Hot Rod Charlie, Wipe the Slate, Speilberg and Roman Centurian are racing in the upcoming Robert Lewis Stakes….
I stand corrected. I actually give him a good shot in the Lewis. Thats why I ranked him in the Top 12 last week
Steve, you’ve given us a great amount of useful information, delivered with your typical attention to detail. Thanks for the answer to the origin of the name Smiley Sobotka and for Shug’s plan for Greatest Honour. This edition confirms my confidence in future wagers yesterday on GH and Mandaloun, both around 40-1. Known Agenda is definitely one to watch.
At this early stage, which 3 do you consider to have the best pedigrees for 10 furlongs? Greatest Honour, Essential Quality, and Proxy would be my choices.
If you mean which one of these three, no doubt Greatest Honour by far.