Derby Rankings: Week 3
A bit of a shakeup this week with some polarizing additions, as we wait for the first big weekend coming up when more changes are likely and the Derby Rankings hopefully will seem clearer. But at this point it looks like the top of the Rankings won’t come into focus until the Risen Star Stakes on February 19. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Jan. 31, 2022 – Week 3
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
It’s still early, but if you go by what their trainers say, there is a good chance the No. 1 and 2 ranked horses will square off in the Risen Star Stakes on February 19, along with the No. 6 ranked horse. It’s apparent that points have now become the major focus when planning a horse’s schedule, and if you wait two weeks you can run for 50 points at Fair Grounds instead of running for 10 points at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull Stakes. So many trainers now are content to run their horse only two times before the Derby and you might as well go for the bigger points. Even the No. 3 horse looks like he’ll wait for the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby with the alternative being to debut a week earlier in the Fountain of Fountain of Youth. So we won’t be seeing our current top-ranked horses for quite a while. As for Smile Happy, he didn’t have his usual work this weekend and McPeek said he’s probably going to work him only two more times before the Risen Star, saying he’s “plenty fit” and that he could probably get away with only one more work if he wanted to. He still has the fastest Thoro-Graph number, having run a “2” in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in only his second career start, which is already approaching Derby-type numbers. And both of his races have been two turns, so he does have bottom under him.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
He’s had good steady works, his latest being a :49 4/5 half-mile breeze at Payson Park, and Brown said he’s doing great. With only two lifetime starts, having already run a mile and eighth, and Gulfstream not being the kind of track on which you want to shorten up in distance, he will also wait for the Risen Star Stakes to get another mile and an eighth race in him, with the 50 points to the winner being an additional incentive to wait. Like with Smile Happy, It’s hard to fully assess the true quality of a horse after only two starts, especially to rank him this high, but he has done things in those two starts to suggest he is an extraordinary colt, who has already checked off all the boxes, at least the important ones. And to be honest, other than the McPeek horses, no one has come even close to demonstrating the special qualities you want to see in a highly ranked horse. So we are all taking a wait and see approach before feeling totally confident in a horse’s ranking. And until we start seeing horses display those qualities we’re just going to go by what we’ve seen so far, statistically and visually. And so far this guy has left a big impression.
3—Rattle N Roll (Ken McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
He had another three-furlong breeze, this time going in a sharp :35 3/5. He has shown he can overcome trouble at the start and being trapped in tight quarters, he has an electrifying turn of foot that can put him in contention in a flash, is maneuverable enough to be taken outside, inside or between horses, and can burst clear of horses under a hand ride. And he runs straight and true in the stretch and holds his legs under him perfectly. In short, he is a true professional with no flaws. McPeek remembers him very well at the sale, right down to which barn he was in and what path he walked on. “He had a great presence and walk, huge shoulders and a great hip” he said. “He brought a little more than we expected, but obviously he was worth it.” It would have been interesting to see how he handled Corniche in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but, as much of a cliché as it is, it might have been a blessing in disguise if he can improve even a little from his 2-year-old form and come back a fresh horse. Because of his huge Thoro-Graph leap from a “10 ½” to a “3 ½” and the foundation he has built, the time off could be very beneficial.
4—Giant Game (Dale Romans, Giant’s Causeway – Game For More, by More Than Ready)
Last week I concentrated on his strong series of works and on his pedigree. From a numbers standpoint, he is on a great Thoro-Graph pattern, going from a “13 ½” to a “10 ½” to a solid “4 ¾” in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I also like that his Brisnet figures jumped from an 84 to a 99. His Beyer figures show a more steady improvement, going from a 69 to 79 to 86, indicating he’s still has a lot more improving to do. It all depends on which numbers you believe are more accurate. The Beyers as a whole have not treated the top horses kindly. Of the 23 Future Wager horses, the only horses to get higher than a 90 are Jack Christopher and Commandperformance, and Jack is gone. Following four rapid works at Gulfstream he was given more of a maintenance work, breezing a half in :49 2/5 and then came back Sunday with a :48 3/5 half. It has been decided to enter him in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes and we’ll see what kind of transition he’s made from 2 to 3 and how he stacks up with a hard-knocking graded stakes winner like Mo Donegal and the unknown Tiz the Bomb. Judging by his three fast five-furlong works in January and his two subsequent half-mile breezes he looks ready for a big effort.
5—Newgrange (Bob Baffert, Violence – Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker)
OK, I’m giving in. but only because I’ve got to liven things up on here and because all the top ranked horses will be gathering dust for quite awhile and I’m running out of things to say about them. I need some fresh faces. Newgrange has already lost 20 points, having won two graded stakes this year. But that actually bodes well for the horse because it shows that the owners have enough faith in him that they are willing to pass up these points and wait for the 50 and 100 point races before making any decision, and I’ve been saying all along, if a good horse can’t get enough points in those last two races he doesn’t belong in the Derby. For Baffert, all that was on his mind was taking home the $750,000 purse of the Southwest Stakes. He had to be thrilled to see Newgrange change tactics and win from off the pace for the first time, stamping himself as a leading Derby contender. What happens next is out of his control and I’m sure he has come to terms with that, knowing the time will come for the owners to start thinking seriously about the Derby. They have stood by him and supported him and are in no rush to do anything now. In the Southwest, Newgrange broke sharply from the 10 post, but was outrun into the first turn and was content to track the leaders in third. He didn’t look that comfortable on the far turn as three horses came up on his inside, with two of them getting a slight lead on him. But he quickly shifted gears and began closing in on the leaders. He found his best stride after switching leads in the upper stretch and was relentless down the stretch, drawing off to a 1 ½-length victory. The fractions and final time were pretty slow, but he still ran two-fifths faster than Secret Oath, who had scored a spectacular victory in the Martha Washington Stakes earlier on the card. Anyway, here he is, like it or not. With victories in the Sham and Southwest and the distinct possibility he will be moved when the time comes, he’s done a heckuva lot more than anyone else this year and I can’t pretend any longer he doesn’t exist.
6—Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Edwina E, by Square Eddie)
O’Neill decided to bypass the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes and, like McPeek and Brown, will wait for the more enticing 50 points of the Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Watching last week’s work he still hasn’t gotten rid of his habit of cocking his head to the outside. Somehow he was able to upset the heavily favored Messier in the Los Alamitos Futurity while not only cocking his head, but lugging in as well. Right now, his resume is based on that one race. Is he that good or did Messier have an off day? Andy gave him every chance to come back and beat him by goofing around and he couldn’t get it done. What I found most fascinating about Andy is that he was pretty mediocre in his two Cal-bred races, but jumped from an “8 ¼” Thoro-Graph number in his defeat at even-money in the state-bred Golden State Juvenile Stakes to a “5” in the Los Al Futurity. In addition, he went from an 89 Brisnet figure to a sensational 101 and from a 71 Beyer to an 85. Getting back to this colt’s unsightly little habit, he is still immature and showing no signs of correcting it. I have no idea how long he can get away with it and no idea how good he really is. He still has several boxes to check off. He did turn in a sharp work over the weekend going five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 and his head movement wasn’t quite as bad, as he crushed his workmate by some six lengths and was striding out beautifully. It won’t be until he carries his head straight on a regular basis and in a race that we will be convinced he is over that. Hopefully this was a step in the right direction.
7—Tiz the Bomb (Ken McPeek, Hit It a Bomb – Tiz the Key, by Tiznow)
The time of judgment has come. He finally gets reunited with a dirt track to see if can handle horses like Giant Game and Mo Donegal and others. His works suggest he can, and McPeek’s high praise for him suggests he can. And yes his dirt heavy female family suggests he can. Can McPeek wind up with three of the top four ranked horses after Saturday? Can Tiz the Bomb actually turn out to be the best one? That certainly adds some intrigue to the Holy Bull, where he’ll have to run big against the Remsen winner and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place finisher. So stay tuned. He had his final work Saturday, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 3/5. I haven’t bothered going into speed ratings because his last three races have been on grass, but if he can close from far back the way he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf or from closer to the pace as he did in the Bourbon Stakes that’s all you can ask for right now. He just needs to show that same explosive kick on dirt so he can move on to the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Florida Derby.
8—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Calingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
It will be interesting to see how sharp he is when he makes his 3-year-old debut in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes. Right now he looks to be a determined stretch runner without a huge turn of foot, but who keeps coming and wears you down. How that style will play out over a normally speed conducive Gulfstream track and short stretch we’ll just have see, especially dropping back in distance from 1 1/8 miles. A lot will depend on how the pace scenario shapes up. He tuned up for the race with a :49 3/5 half-mile breeze. At this point I usually state that I’m not a big fan of running 2-year-olds a mile and an eighth over dead track in the Remsen, feeling it can dull a horse. But I won’t say it this year because I have the runner-up in that race ranked No. 2. The reason is that he was coming off one six-furlong race and was up with the pace in an extraordinary performance, while Mo Donegal was coming off a 1 1/16-mile maiden victory, so I want to see how sharp he’s going to be coming off that race, in which they crawled up front in :51 2/5 and 1:16 1/5. But that is more about the track than the horses. He’s not going to ‘wow’ you with his fancy footwork, but he’s 100-percent dependable and will always give you a run for your money.
9—Messier (Bob Baffert, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
If I’m going to start ranking a select number of Baffert horses who I’m fully expecting to be in the Derby, whoever the trainer may be, and competing in the 50 and 100 point races then I have to include this colt, who has a ton of ability and will run next weekend in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He has the same ownership as Newgrange and could very well be a more serious Derby threat, but Newgrange has two stakes victories this year and Messier still has to rebound off a shocking defeat in the Los Alamitos Futurity. I’m expecting him to do just that in the Lewis. In his first start at five furlongs he was all over the track, racing greenly down the stretch, and still finished second, beaten a length. In his next start going six furlongs he demonstrated a quick turn of foot and blew by the leader while still under wraps and quickly opened a three-length lead, then kept increasing it with every stride with Flavien Prat looking back and easing him up the final eighth, winning by 6 ¼ lengths. In the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes, he sat back in fourth behind a very rank Forbidden Kingdom, made his move three-wide, and drew clear to win by 3 ½ lengths in a sharp 1:22 3/5. And we saw what Forbidden Kingdom did to three talented Baffert horses in Saturday’s San Vicente Stakes. Sent off at 1-2 in the Los Al Futurity, his first start around two turns, he was on the muscle early and didn’t relax like he did in his previous races. He ran well and finished far ahead of the third-place finisher, but Slow Down Andy just had his number. It must be noted that both of Messier’s defeats came at Los Alamitos, so let’s see what he does at Santa Anita, where he ran his most impressive race.
10—Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Smitten, by Tapit)
Pletcher said he’s scheduled to have first work this week. He is just one of the many ranked horses who is still a question mark. Being a maiden, what path will he take and can he duplicate his form in the Champagne Stakes? I’m sticking with him because I was on him after his career debut, even though he got beat, and had him as the subject of my first Derby Sleepers column. So I admit I might be a little biased, but I still can’t get his Champagne performance out of my head, running a strong second to Jack Christopher, arguably the most brilliant 2-year-old in the country before being sidelined. That is why his 41-1 odds in the latest Derby Future Wager could turn out to be a huge overlay. Remember, his sire won the Belmont Stakes and his broodmare sire has sired four Belmont winners. His third dam is by Fit to Fight, the fourth and last horse to sweep New York’s prestigious Handicap Triple Crown (Met Mile, Suburban, and Brooklyn). He also is inbred to Nijinsky, the last horse to sweep the English Triple Crown more than 50 years ago, and he is inbred to Seattle Slew, the first undefeated horse to sweep the U.S. Triple Crown. In other words, the farther this horse goes the better he should get. Although he doesn’t seem to have a big turn of foot, he just gets stronger as the race goes on and keeps coming at you. Considering his injury, his wide trip, and running closer to the pace than usual, his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was not that bad.
11—Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
I realize his competition has been questionable, but I also remember Pletcher sending Always Dreaming to Tampa Bay for an easy allowance win against inferior competition and he used that race as a springboard to impressive victories in a Gulfstream allowance, the Florida Derby, and Kentucky Derby. This colt might have gone a similar route had he not scratched out of an earlier Tampa allowance race with a fever. His speed figures have not been dazzling, and he is behind because of that scratch, but visually he has been spectacular and his mechanics are flawless. There were some promising colts in Sunday’s allowance race and he just toyed with them, loping along on the lead after disposing of a rank Cloud Play. The Mark Casse-trained Glider, an impressive maiden winner on grass, moved up along the inside turning for home and cut the corner, actually pulling on even terms in the upper stretch, but jockey Pablo Morales still hadn’t moved his hands and paid no attention to him. Then, passing the eighth pole he finally set him down, throwing two crosses on him, and he was gone, showing push-button acceleration. He drew off under a hand ride to win by 4 ½ lengths, again just gliding over the ground and running perfectly straight the entire stretch. Following a slow opening half, he went his next two quarters in :23 4/5 and :24 flat without breaking a sweat. Yes, I am taking a shot, going against several of my rules, and I acknowledge he is untested and has a lot of catching up to do and still will be lightly raced, but sometimes it’s fun to take at least one shot based on the feeling that you’re seeing a colt who could be exceptional.
12—Pappacap (Mark Casse, Gun Runner – Pappascat, by Scat Daddy)
He was on a good Tho-Graph pattern, going from back-to-back “10s” to a “6 ½” to a “4 ¼” in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, “but regressed back to a “6 ¾” in the Lecomte, and you don’t want to see a horse regress in his 3-year-old debut, especially when it was his fourth straight loss. The only reason he is still ranked is because he’s run well in top-class company and just might be waiting for the distances to stretch out to take that big step forward. At this point I will give him the benefit of the doubt because he always runs hard, but need to see some electricity and not just those even races picking up a piece of it. Although he’ll be facing much tougher competition in the Risen Star, Casse is not intimidated. When told who is planning on coming, he said. “At least they are coming to our house.” We’ll give him one more shot to defend his house and send the invaders packing.
13—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
He turned in another strong six-furlong work, this time in 1:13 flat. The more I see him turning in these powerful long works the more confused I am what the plans are for him. Regardless what owner Tami Bobo said last week I cannot see him waiting three months from the Mucho Macho Man to the Florida Derby, regardless of the huge leap in his Thoro-Graph figures. Even the two months to the Fountain of Youth is a long time, but makes much more sense and gives him two more starts. I have been trying to straighten this out, but have not had any luck. As I’ve been saying, this is a very talented horse who could easily become a major Derby contender, and a repeat of the Mucho Macho Man would move him way up. But where that repeat will take place is puzzling at this time. Watch out for any late developments.
14—Call Me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux, Midnight Lute – Overseen, by First Defence)
He is the only horse from the Lecomte who is showing a good progression in his Thoro-Graph numbers, going from a “12 ¾” to an “11” to a “7 ¾” to a “5.” I know he had the right pace setup with Epicenter going too fast early, but he passed some very good horses in the stretch and perhaps he is as good as he looked. I’m not sure what to make of his pedigree because he has both strong speed and stamina influences throughout. He has some strong European stamina in his tail-female family and I believe that overshadows the speed influences, but who can really know for sure how far he wants to go. I’m not counting Midnight Lute as a speed influence because he only sprinted due to a breathing problem and he has sired horses who could run long. This colt’s running style certainly will help him.
15—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
If his six-furlong work in 1:12 2/5 at Palm Meadows is any indicator, he should be ready to fire his best shot in his 3-year-old debut, whether it’s the Holy Bull or Sam F. Davis a week later. It’s difficult to know what to make of him, having run well in the Breeders’ Futurity and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but was no match for Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy, who beat him pretty soundly, even though he was the 7-5 and 9-5 favorite. But he did show brilliance winning his debut at Saratoga by 6 1/2 lengths, covering the seven furlongs in a sprightly 1:22 3/5, earning a strong 90 Beyer figure. But he hasn’t improved on that going two turns in graded stakes company. However, it’s no disgrace finishing third and second to two of the leading Derby contenders. He’s already had a five-furlong bullet work at Palm Meadows and the recent six-furlong work was very strong, so he could be a handful.
16—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
He paired up “5 ¾” Thoro-Graph numbers in the Lecomte, which is OK as long as he shows improvement next time. On one hand you can forgive his nose defeat in the Lecomte if you attributed it to simply going too fast early, but we’re talking Kentucky Derby and that isn’t a habit you want to get into going a mile and a quarter. Unlike the past, speed horses have fared well in the Run for the Roses, but you still want to see a horse who can relax and not use up too much energy, whether it’s on the lead or just off it. We know he’s game, as he showed in the Lecomte and we know he can run off from you as he did in the Gun Runner Stakes. There is still a lot to like about him, but remember, the first three finishers of the Lecomte are going to face some heavy hitters shipping in for the Risen Star, so we should get a good idea how the local group of 3-year-olds shape up.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
With three new additions and a logjam at the bottom, I had to drop a few horses off the rankings, at least for now. I reluctantly dropped CHASING TIME because he hasn’t worked in over two weeks, and once he does he likely will return to the Rankings. With everyone lumped so close together there is always going to be movement, and while not working for two weeks is not a big deal yet, you have to pick on any little thing you can find. Hopefully, he’ll be back on the work tab soon and back in the Rankings. I also dropped GOD OF LOVE because Mark Casse said he may not run him in Saturday’s Withers Stakes as originally intended with the weather being so bad in New York. But the snowstorm has come and gone and there is no telling what the weather will be next weekend. So if he doesn’t run we’ll just have to wait for him to show up somewhere else to see how he handles the dirt. Two potential Derby horses from Casse’s barn, GOLDEN GLIDER and VOLCANIC, both turned in sharp works at Casse’s training center, with the former going five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 and Volcanic going a half in :47 3/5. We could see both next at Tampa Bay Downs.
The aforementioned FORBIDDEN KINGDOM is an absolute rocket of a horse who did the unthinkable – defeat three Bob Baffert horses in a five-horse field. This colt rattles off :21 and change and :43 and change fractions like nothing and he ran the Baffert horses off their feet, and that included his highly regarded DOPPELGANGER and the Del Mar Futurity winner PINEHURST. Although he most likely is a sprinter or miler with all that early speed, trainer Dick Mandella said they will at least try him two turns in the San Felipe Stakes. He did “slow down” to a :44 2/5 half in the San Vicente. He is by American Pharoah, and though there is a lot of speed in his female family in the second and third generations, there is stamina in his fourth generation. These days you never know how far a horse will run.
OK, what are we going to make out of ETHEREAL ROAD’S Silky Sullivan-like performance in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Oaklawn Saturday? Making his fourth career start, he is either climbing the ladder five rungs at a time or this race was some sort of aberration brought about by weak competition. I have no idea, but I will say that performance opened my eyes a lot wider than any other 3-year-old race this year. There is no way he should have won that race, never mind win it by four lengths. In his first three starts he went from seventh to fifth to third, beaten 6 ¼ lengths. But that last race gave us just a slight glimpse of what was to come. In this race he was sent off at 19-1 and hesitated at the beak and then stumbled, dropping back not only to last, but completely out of the picture. Down the backstretch he was some six lengths behind the next to last horse and 15 to 20 lengths off the lead. Then, as if someone had turned on the switch, he took off, split horses and began picking the others off one by one passing horses with every stride. Track announcer Vic Stauffer said, “He’s up to midpack and could actually get a piece of this purse. If he does it’ll be a giant effort.” Seconds later he changed his tune: “Here comes Ethereal Road and he’s gonna get a heckuva lot more than a piece of the purse; he’s gonna get it all. Look at this run — Wow!” That pretty much describes the race, in which he went from hopelessly out of it to a runaway winner. I don’t know if that was for real, but it sure was breathtaking to watch. And guess what? He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, so that would make it doubly exciting if he were the real deal. Lukas doesn’t know the meaning of the word conservative, so watch for him to go right into stakes competition.
At Gulfstream Park, HAPPY BOY ROCKET, another son of Runhappy, appreciated the stretch-out from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, sitting some three lengths of the pace in fifth after going four-wide on the first turn, charging to the lead from the outside at the five-sixteenths pole and then drawing off under a hand ride to a 2 ¾-length victory for Bill Mott. His first start was a throwout, as he broke horribly, was wide on the far turn, then was stuck on his left lead for most of the stretch run, but still just missed second before galloping out very strongly. He is a powerful long-striding horse who carries his head high and is still a work in progress. But he has tremendous upside. And do not overlook Pletcher stablemates COMPLETE AGENDA and BEYOND BEST, who both had their share of trouble and finished well to be third and fourth, respectively. Complete Agenda got caught five-wide on the first turn, moved up quickly on the far outside while still five-wide, and in a flash was second, right off the flank of the leader. At that point I thought he had no shot, having done way too much too early, but he kept coming after the winner went by him and was striding out well at the wire. Closing fast on his outside was Beyond Best, who bobbled coming out of the gate from the inside post, got squeezed along the rail approaching the first turn and dropped well back in ninth, but he accelerated on the turn and moved up four-wide turning for home. He also was striding out well, and both colts look ready to win next time out with a decent trip. And also keep an eye on runner-up MONTAUK POINT, who was down on the inside most of the race, fanned wide nearing the top of the stretch and clearly outran both Pletcher horses to the wire in his stretch-out race from 5 ½ and six furlongs. He is another with big potential. This has the making of being a very live maiden race.
A mention must be made of the second-place finish by BARBER ROAD in the Southwest. Normally closer to the pace he dropped well out of it, was wide into the turn, and then made a long sustained run. He came on strong in the stretch, but like in his other races, he found one horse who closed stronger than he did. He is a horse who always tries hard and is always coming in the stretch, but he needs to find a little more to finish the job.
In a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream, the Pletcher-Winstar pair of first-timers SWING SHIFT and CONGRESSMAN put on a show battling head and head for the lead to the head of the stretch until Swing Shift asserted himself, but did drift out into his stablemate, which caused a chain reaction that surely did not help eventual third-place finisher POSITIVE REVIEW. Swing Shift ran a gutsy race to hold everyone off and then survived a foul claim and stewards’ inquiry. All these horses are way behind to be considered Derby horses.
Catching up on Pasco Stakes winner MARKHAMIAN, he is a head away from being undefeated and was impressive breaking his maiden and then capturing the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes, in which he pressed a fast pace and then fought off all challenges in the stretch before drawing off to a 2 ½-length victory in 1:23 1/5. Turning for home it looked as if his early battle and the testing fractions had taken their toll, especially when two horses moved up to challenge who seemed to be going much stronger. But Markhamian kept fighting back and finally pulled away in the final furlong. He does have the pedigree to suggest he will stretch out in distance with no problem, so we’ll see if they come back in the Sam F. Davis. But it must be noted he has not worked since the Pasco.
Assuming that 10-length maiden winner SIR LONDON is heading for the Robert Lewis Stakes, he should be plenty sharp and fit with two bullet five-furlong works and a half-mile drill in :47 2/5 on Sunday. We won’t know how good he is until he faces winners, but he has the look of a very talented colt. Doug O’Neill is planning on running his first-out six-furlong maiden winner HAPPY JACK in the Lewis. Another horse Baffert is high on in the impressive maiden winner WHARTON, who worked a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
The Withers Stakes lost God of Love, but we’ll have first and fourth-place finishers of Jerome, COURVOISIER and UNBRIDLED BOMBER attempt to stretch-out to a mile and eighth. If Courvoisier can repeat his Jerome victory going a flat mile he will have to be considered a serious contender for the Wood Memorial down the road.
Saratoga Special winner HIGH OAK has now turned in back-to-back five-furlong works at Payson Park and should be nearing his 3-year-old debut. This is a very talented horse and I can’t wait to see how he bounces back off his layoff. Chad Brown said Champagne winner JACK CHRISTOPHER is just starting back and is too far behind.
Churchill already said Messier could also not earn points with Barnes—Trouble is this year a horse like Messier, like Adare Manor–are surrounded by stressful thinking! They are at a disadvantage because they have to change barns, and probably soon, Messier just ran by far the best race of a three year old THIS year.
A shame horses are penalized for human errors.
Mike Relva, I agree, especially since these horses have no say in the matter. They just do their job, what they were bred to do and that is throw that heart down on that track and run the best race they have in them that day.
Bravo Linda!
“Messier just ran by far the best race of a three-year-old this year”
Matt,
You know better than posting the above statement.
Cabo Spirit the runner up in the Lewis made his first 3 starts on dirt and was beaten in all. His next 4 starts were on turf with a resulting record of (2-1-1). He emerged as Messier’s best opponent on the day. But his best performances have been on turf. Would Messier have defeated him by 15L on turf< Highly unlikely as few turf races are won by 15L
Could the winner of the HB have defeated Cabo Spirit by 15L? Certainly. He finished 3rd to Steves' #1 ranked. The quality of the oppositin can make wide margin and impressive winner are made to look like superstars against modest competition.
What was his excuse against Slow Down Andy who ran greenly whilst defeating him?
They offered no excuse for the Los Al Futurity, they took off the blinkers, he was working lights out….horse progress, especially this time, early three… you saw same race as I did I guess I thought he was more impressive than you thought he was.
When trainers like Asmussen and O’Neil had suspensions their horses ran in graded races under their assistants, Blasi and Mora to name just a couple. Why doesn’t Baffert have an assistant where this could also take place and his horses could earn qualifying points?
I’m thinking that there was some kind of language in his suspension that said he couldn’t do that, that no one in any way affiliated with him could run horses in the Derby. I find that unfortunate. It should be enough that he doesn’t get any credit and can’t attend the Derby, but now the horses and the owners and the fans and the race itself are getting punished. It may come back to bite the people who made the decision.
I’m a fan. How am I being punished?
Yes, there is “language” in the notice of suspension and ineligibility for earning points. You could look for it in the web of the wide world.
No.
Please don’t tell the authorities. I snuck into Steve’s basement/man-cave when he took a bathroom break, and I borrowed his notes for tomorrow’s blog. This is how he seems to be leaning:
1. Smile Happy
2. Zandon
3. Rattle N Roll
4. White Abarrio
5. Messier
6. Newgrange
7. Mo Donegal
8. Slow Down Andy
9. Commandperformance
10. Emmanuel
11. Simplification
12. Pappacap
13. Call Me Midnight
14. Early Voting
15. Classic Causeway
16. Epicenter
By the way, Steve’s handwriting is horrible, which is a sign of genius.
I think Steve did a few last minute edits to the list you “saw”. Otherwise, close, very close.
I may have misinterpreted his notes. 😉
Just saw a comment on a FB page I follow that the Derby will be just another Grade 3 stakes race without Baffert and his horses.
Does anyone else feel that way?
Absolutely not, Lynda. So many good horses NOT trained by Baffert are emerging!
Several for sure.
I don’t.
KD will lose revenue this year. The old West versus East narrative is gone. Discussing with numerous players who bet big money might stay away. KD this year smells like a grade 2, we will see. Best 3 year old races might be the Prep races, Preakness and later in the year. KD shot themselves in the foot.
No,BB did. KD won’t blink!
Churchill is publicly held company. KD is their biggest revenue day. They will lose revenue this year versus past. Stock price will take a hit. Shot themselves in the foot.
So be it. My opinion, back six months ago was he’s on outside looking in for next two yrs regarding Derby. Wishful thinking.
OK, man. You keep your mind on CD’s finances, and I’ll have fun following the Derby trail and the Kentucky Derby. I can take the fun you could have had and add it to my own enjoyment. But seriously, your dream of impeding doom is not based on reality. Let’s say that in a normal year without a ban, Baffert has a couple of the top derby prospects. Either because of performance or injury, neither is entered in the Derby. As in other years when he has no Derby runners, Baffert has no presence at CD on the first Saturday in May. The Derby goes on and CD has a big week. Another scenario is what we are likely to see play out in the next few months. That being a transfer of the top Baffert prospects to other trainers. The Derby will be the Derby, with or without Baffert.
Correct! Perhaps he forgets years BB had no horse running.
Reality is that the perception of an outsider getting railroaded have turned fans off which totally different than not running horses; sorry but KD will be canceled by many. Sad but true.
Let’s all be sure to review the weekend’s events on Monday, May 9.
We’ll see.
Sky isn’t falling Jeff.
EddieF, I am in total agreement with you.
The Kentucky Derby is the longest continuous sporting event in American history (since May 17, 1875), It is actually a two week festival that culminates with the Kentucky Derby race. This is not the first time that there have been circumstances that resulted in doubt that the race would continue.
The true faces of the Derby are the horses, not the most celebrated trainer since 1995.
I personally know of no one (among my friends) who are boycotting the race because of the situation with Baffert.
As to East Coast/West Coast rivalries being endangered if CD decides to continue the ban, I seem to recall one of the greatest rivalries in recent history…Zeny and Rachel and Mr Baffert did not train either one.
My sympathies simply do not lie with Mr. Baffert. He is a very wealthy man and will come back strong in less than two years.
My heart breaks for the breeder and owner of Medina Spirit. I think about this colt quite often and what a sad, sad end to his life.
If there is one decision I would want from CD it would be to give the colt his rightful place in history even if it is with an asterisk.
MS- a victim. Zenyatta was with best connections for her. If with BB,as well as many others,wouldn’t ended well I’m guessing.
Think the same could be said about California Chrome (and BB).
My 3 all time favs- Cigar, Zen, CA. Chrome. Had private visit w/ Chrome 4 yrs ago @ TM. Had dinner in Nov.’20 with Coburn’s in Reno. Charming people.
Thanks for the reply, Lynda. Well stated. My heart agrees with you about Medina and the Derby controversy. But my head says otherwise.
Messier is going to get a 107, 108 Beyer….took heat and crushed.
Messier is the top Horse in my personal ranking now…
He is a Derby horse no matter who takes over from now on.
Baffert has won 8 Stakes this year.
It’s hard not to lose when you’re racing against yourself. Lol.
Visually impressive for sure. But compare that field to the Holy Bull, where White Abarrio defeated Simplification, Mo Donegal, Giant Game, and Tiz the Bomb. Messier, though he did win by 350 lengths, beat three maiden winners and a turf winner that didn’t run well in his early dirt races. And he finished the final 1/16th in about 6 3/5 sec. He wasn’t being geared down. But Top 10…yes.
Same track as yesterday. ..Gr2 older ran 8 1/2 seconds more, ran 1/16 more….
Slow Down Andy ran him down at the same distance in December. And do you really think he’ll get a GIANT number? Who runs a 107 in early February?
That’s an open question! It LOOKED like a real good horse!
Yes he did!
I think that Giant Game and Tiz the Bomb should be out of the 16 until their next race… that makes room for Messier to be in the top 5 in tomorrow’s ranking.
Baffert said that Messier was going to impress today and he was right.
I believe Messier to be way better than White Abarrio… but I respect your opinion and will let the horses prove themselves on the track.
Hey, Nelson. Wouldn’t you agree that the HB field was far superior to the RBL field?
Into the 90s for sure. But blowing a field away by 10 or 12 doesn’t always convert to a huge number. (Look at Early Voting, for instance.) The final time didn’t seem that impressive to me. We’ll know tomorrow!
Would Baffert be concerned that Messier put on a performance like that for just 10 points, in February? Is he going to lose the horse to another trainer in the near future? Lots of lingering questions for me, puzzled.
Going out a limb and say Happy Jack in the Robert Lewis. Short, simple, sweet; bred (Oxbow stands at Calumet) and owned by Calumet.
Is Baffert’s race to lose with Wharton (475,00) and Messier, (470,000) however.
Johnny V and Baffert and that lengthy ownership group (Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables, SF Racing, Siena Farm, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, Robert Masterson, and Jay Schoenfarber) are a tough combo to beat.
I guess we BOTH went out on the wrong limb! Good thing my $20 was an air bet. So impressed with Messier this time. Will be interested to see how his numbers compare with White Abarrio, who posted a 97 Beyer. Would like to hear about the Brisnet and Thoro-graph figures too.
LOL, not the first and certainly not the last I went out on a limb because I like a horse’s connections.
Just have come to really like Doug O’Neil and his team and I have a lot respect for what the owner of Calumet is trying to do.
Based on his so-so Los Al Futurity, I thought Messier was vulnerable, and was uncertain about Sir London, who did not run well as it turned out. Boy was I (happily) wrong about Messier. He was an eye-catcher in the post parade, too.
A $20 bill leftover from vacation fell out of a pocket when I was doing laundry. I’m going to put it on Happy Jack.
It is great to see Newgrange finally cracking the top 16 glass ceiling! Not only is he gorgeous physically, but he is a rock-solid tryer who has hardly been tapped. But honestly, I feel the best three-year-old that I have seen in these parts is Adare Manor. She is looking like the Valieva of fillies.
Messier looks strong but I’d seriously fear Cabo Spirit coming to mow ’em down in the Robert Lewis.
Adare Manor ..a filly…is large framed and GOOD….1:37 mile just now….Thats fast on that track..
Won by over ten…..
Going to Beyer out a big number, probably highest of weekend, for three year olds ..
Watched it again, on the pull up you can see that filly has a big hip….pulled up more than 100 yards ahead….
Happy Jack flies by the fading favorites in the RB Lewis?
It is Baffert’s world …
No Andy or Forbidden Kingdom this time…!
Seems his ‘world’ is in turmoil.
Since Rattle N Roll’s return to training, he worked 3F in 36.13 on 1-22, and another 3F work in 35.67 on 1-29 at GP.
It was good to hear Kenneth McPeek increased the workout distance to 4F, which he completed in 48.66 on Saturday, 2-5.
Currently, RNR is my top contender on the Derby trail, and feel fortunate to have a Derby Futures $100.00 win wager on him at 34-1. Based on those three workouts, it’s clearly evident that RNR has fully recovered from that hoof issue.
On a side note, White Abarrio’s dominance in the Holy Bull was quite impressive. Where does he land on Derby Rankings: Week 4? I would guess somewhere in the Top 5. We’ll know tomorrow.
Week 4 of the Sweet Sixteen should be very interesting! This seems to me to be a very fluid year for run up to the Derby and there is certainly some hidden talent out there that we are just now seeing bubble up.
For certain White Abarrio is on my little list of my 8 or so Derby hopefuls. These Tapit grandsons are just as good looking as the Tapit sons in my opinion and White Abarrio is no exception to that! He also has that “old world” Thoroughbred look to me. The colt sold for a modest $40,000 at auction (first sale as a yearling was for 7,500) and his trainer, though a good one, is not one who is in the spotlight like Baffert, Brown and Pletcher. and others.
That pedigree (yes, Coldfacts, I pay attention to pedigrees!) is awesome.
Not convinced that Simplification or Mo Donegal would have caught him even if Simplification had a good start and MD had not been boxed in on the world.
For those of you who keep up with such things, WA got a 97 Beyer.
Disappointed that Tiz The Bomb placed so far back.
Great weekend of racing and I was thrilled beyond measure that Hot Rod Charlie won the Carnivale race.
Note to comment below about White Abarrio’s name. Using the Spanish translation app, Abarrio does not translate. Barrio does (to neighborhood or quarter).
Happy Sunday Lynda.
Abarrio is the family name of the owner (of La Milagrosa Stable, LLC)… el Señor Juan Carlos Pérez Abarrio. He likes to use his family name on his horses dating back to his time in Venezuela…
Now it makes sense! 🙂
Happy Sunday to you too Nelson.
Thank you for sharing how WA got his name.
Did a bit of research this morning as to how but came up empty handed.
Hey, Lynda. I think it’s impossible to predict the outcome if Simplification broke quickly from the gate. Mo Donegal didn’t seem to get his mind on running until he straightened out for the stretch run. I don’t think he was well suited to the GP track, and I doubt the finish would be much different with the cleanest of trips. BTW, I put “abarrio” into Google Translate and the English translation is “neighborhood.”
Simplification is still on my little list. Not really bothered that he came in second with MD breathing down his backside. These colts are still learning, still growing and most still have the potential to be at the top of their game by Derby Day.
As to the race track…hmmm….really good racehorses adapt to the track and that is one thing that is on my list of criteria when I make my little list. Granted some horses like certain tracks better than others, especially if it is their “home track”.
I am just not high on Mo Donegal for some reason (that I cannot explain).
He just does not speak to me, even though his bloodlines are among my favorites.
Go figure!
So who’s on your “little list”?
This was my first list that I posted on this site:
Rattle N Roll
Commandperformance
Tiz The Bomb
Emmanuel
Zandon
Slow Down Andy
Smile Happy
Pappacap
Chasing Time
Jack Christopher
Classic Causeway
Simplification
Giant Game
Revised list (in no particular order yet) and subject to change!
Pappacap
Zandon
Emmanuel
Simplification
White Abarrio
Smile Happy
Chasing Time
Was disappointed by Tiz The Bomb’s performance. I can live with a 2nd, third or even a fourth placing but I think Tiz the Bomb was 11th? Stand to be corrected on that.
I no longer have access to videos of workouts unless the trainer chooses to post on Facebook. All the sites require signing up now and you can only sign up from states that allow pari-mutual betting. So that leaves me watching replays of the races.
Like a couple of Baffert’s colts but am reserving any comment on them until the matter of CD and Baffert is resolved.
I did read that the results of the necropsy on Medina Spirit is expected in the nest week and the CHRB is hoping to get the owner’s permission to release the results (full disclosure). Personal opinion is that there needs to 100% transparency on the results.
Oops, left off Early Voting.
I like your short list, Lynda. Chasing Time needs to step up vs. stakes-caliber types. At least for the next couple of weeks, Smile Happy is the consensus choice. Just read that White Abarrio will race next in the Florida Derby. Two preps. Aarrgghh! Tiz the Bomb finished 7th of 9. He beat my pick, Giant Game, and a horse named Whatamidoinghere.
Thanks! And thanks too for the correction on TTB.
In Due Time …Guy makes a big bet at 250-1….same guy bets big at 100-1….SAME guy bets big at 50-1 and he is down around 30-1, because of ONE GUY!
White Abarrio has a small, beautiful head! I like a small head! If the Derby were run at Gulfstream, he’d look pretty good!
Early Voting ..the only wire to wire winner at Aqueduct yesterday…78 Beyer.
In retrospect, maybe the only thing you needed to know to pick White Abarrio in the Holy Bull was that he last raced against Smile Happy. That KJC has turned out to be the most formful of the late 2yo stakes. Two KJC runners have won Derby points preps this year — first, Call Me Midnight, and now WA. No other major 2yo race has produced ONE winner in a 3yo Derby prep.
It was a wonderful day at Gulfstream. I went with my best friend and we stayed for every race. I think it was the second race she bet a horse that won by a nose. I thought she was going to collapse from excitement. Both of us thought simplification would win and we were so disappointed when he came out of the gate poorly. It’s not his style to come from behind so we both thought he did a remarkable job to finish second. White Abarrio was tremendous. Someone commented that Mo Donegal would have won the race if it was nine furlongs….uh…no! Ha ha ha! My friend looked at Google translate and said that abarrio means neighborhood. White neighborhood? Hmmmm. Spanish speakers, help me out. Tiz the Bomb… I don’t know that it’s an excuse for such a poor effort but he looked awful going into the gate.
Steve will have to work really hard to put together the next rankings. Giant Game is at no. 4 but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s ranked on Monday. Obviously Tiz will drop out. Mo Donegal won’t drop much. Simplification could actually move up. White Abarrio has to be in the top five, right? The Withers winner has to get in to the top 16. It’s hard to know how good he is because that field wasn’t much. I hope everybody enjoyed the day as much as I did!
So sorry. I should have said that I WOULD be surprised if Giant Game is ranked on Monday.
Agree with WA being in top 5. One can hope! Really like this colt.
PS, good to see a female posting on here. Sometimes I feel like the only one who takes the guys on!
I discovered this site recently but I was a regular reader and commenter on Steve’s Blood Horse blog. I used a screen name not my real name. It was probably the name of a great filly, but I can’t remember which one. You do a fine job taking on the guys. You sure don’t need my help. Ha ha!
I don’t post as much as many people do, but I am female and I am here.
Roberta, did your friend buy you lunch with that early bit of luck? Ha ha Gulfstream did look a picture on Saturday, but the big question is, did you leave wealthier? White Abarrio was impressive and you wish Tyler Gaffalione all the success in the world.
Oh my no! She usually bets $2 across the board. I don’t know if the winnings would have purchased two hot dogs. But a sweet young man by the rail bought us beers. And he didn’t even want us to come see his etchings. I don’t bet so I guess you could say I came out even. Ha ha ha! How did you know I love Tyler? Whenever he passes by in the post parade I yell his name and sometimes he acknowledges. My heart skips a beat. Awwww.
Ha ha Sometimes, a hot dog is just what you wanted though. Sounds as though you had a great time. Are you going to the Fountain of Youth Stakes day or the Florida Derby?
White Abarrio has a big gap in works— thought he made a nice surge at top of the (short) stretch…He was impressive, to me
Early Voting another nice runner by Gun Runner, who has had a terrific beginning to his stud career.
Impressive three months out….trainers like Charlie Whittingham could have a horse peaking for the “big race”, he was so good at that…when he saddled his first Derby horse in 30 years he WON the roses, then he came back and won again, and came 2nd next time, some trainers can have their horses peaking at the right time, Bob is one, he won’t be there I guess…..
Exactly. I thought DWL’s Houston may be better than Sunday Silence early on, after the win in December. You learn, you learn. Lol.
Davids, one trainer I really like right now is Charlie Appleby (for Godolphin). He certainly uses actual racing as training and is not bothered if a horse loses a race rather sees it as a “learning opportunity”.
As I have come to expand my racing horizons beyond the shores of the United States, I have come to have a lot of respect for trainers in England, Ireland, Australia and Japan and their training methods.
Yes Lynda, different philosophy in Europe and moreover, the training environment itself couldn’t be more different than in the US. In the US, the pressure seems unrelenting for both human and equine. Relaxing, to a certain extent, is not part of the vocabulary. There are a handful of trainers in the US who emulate the European approach but the whole structure of US racing is centered around the racetrack.
Charlie Appleby is not bad is he, always smiling, and thrives on positivity. Good for him. You should take a holiday visiting the major studs and racetracks in Europe. Treat yourself.
I would love to travel to Ireland, England, Scotland and Australia but I do not fly well at all. I am extremely claustrophobic and actually have panic attacks when I get on a plane. Have checked out traveling to these destinations on an ocean liner. My luck, the ship would be another Titanic, HA. Love traveling by rail, just a shame AMTRAK does not go to Europe (LOL).
Have a very good friend of many years who lived in the US for some years but has since returned to England.
She has invited me many times to come to England and stay with her. She lives in Warrington, England, if you know where that is.
Yes, I’ve been to Warrington, it’s a town in Cheshire. I have friends who live in Bath and whenever I’m there we drive to all the towns close at hand. England is very accessible by car or public transport.
By the way, on YouTube, you can find tours of the various stud farms in Europe as well as the famous tracks.
Per the article on BH, White Abarrio missed a couple of scheduled workouts last month after getting sick as he readied for his 3-year-old debut.
Not sure if this is going to be consider but a very talented offspring from Great Notion, his bottom side I believe tells you he can run forever, Md. Bred, be on the look out for this one very talented, WITTY, Steve this guy is the real deal, Steve, Galerio is still running pass his pedigree!!!!
These Into Mischief broodmares are making some noise!
Cilla (California Chrome), damsire Into Mischief sired added another win to her tally today.
White Abarrio’s damsire is Into Mischief.
With two impressive colts making a noise in the Derby trial, has Spendthrift been sending urgent emails to the Korea Racing Authority? The sons of Race Day are making the Korean Racing Authority look awfully shrewd.
Impresseed w/ Chad’s horse today.
Yes but with reservations. I felt the runners from the Jerome Stakes had distance limitations prior and this appeared to be fairly well proven. Nonetheless, Early Voting could not have been more impressive, especially as the colt seemed unwilling prior to the start.
White Abarrio impressed more though. Cool customer, I’ve been watching the progression. For me, quite a few of the more favored runners in the Holy Bull Stakes were being overpraised.
EV did well considering.
I, too was more impressed by White Abarrio!
A couple of days ago I think somebody here said that Early Voting acted up before his first race too.
He’s young, some need extra time.
Mo Donegal will attempt the Remsen/Holy Bull double. Below are the fractions recorded in the Remsens for the last 3 horses that attempted the double:
2021 -Remsen- Mo Donegal—25.18; 51.47; 1;16.34;1:41.28; 1:53.61 (TBD)
2018 -Remsen- M. Mischief—-25.12; 50.67; 1;14.60;1:38.48; 1:51.34 (3rd in HB)
2015 -Remsen- Mohaymen—-24.35; 49.16; 1;13.73;1:38.43; 1:50.69 (1st in HB)
2006 -Remsen- No Biz LSB—-23.87; 47.65; 1;11.96;1:36.05; 1:48.82 (1st in HB)
It is obvious from the fractions recorded by Nobiz Like Showbiz, that the surface at the Big A has changed significantly. Irrespective, the figures indicate slow Remsen winners have little or no chance to win the Holy Bull unless they are significantly better that the field. Does Mo Donegal possess the status of being significantly better than the 2022 Holy Bull field? I do not think so.
Maximum Mischief and Mohaymen were both undefeated when they won the Remsen. By extension both entered the Holy Bull likewise undefeated. MM finished 3rd and Mohaymen ran out an impressive winner.
It is important to note that the fractions and final times for the Remsen’s won by MM and Mohaymen, were significantly faster than those recorded in the the one won by Mo Donegal. What’s the prospect of Mo Donegal winning the Holy Bull after being so slow in the Remsen? It doesn’t look good by the share number even if allowance is given for the difference in surfaces on the respective days.
In the last 8 renewals of the Rensen. Mo Donegal’s Equibase figure has been the lowest. Maximum Security was retired due to injury. Mohaymen never won another race after his FOY win. He finished 4th in the KD but was a shadow of himself thereafter. Probably damage goods from the complex synthetic contortions he was in receipt of.
Given what the above figures reveal about Remsen winners that have won the Holy Bull. It is grossly unlikely that Mo Donegal will emerge the winner of the Holy Bull. But it’s a horse race and anything can happen.
Early Voting (Gun Runner) wires the field in the G3 Withers S at Aqueduct.
Lynda, was that a prediction or were you just reporting the result? Ha ha ha!
Actually had high hopes for this one to do well. Really like Gun Runner’s first crop. But yes, it was a post about the race results. Really not at the “prediction” stage yet for any of the contenders though I do have a list of ones I like and hope do well in their races. I will leave the “predictions” up to the professionals for now who post on Steve’s blog. I am about as far removed from being a “handicapper” as one can be. Too much math for me (hated math in school), LOL.
I hear ya! I’m not really into handicapping. I just like to watch the races and go by what I see. I love the Gun Runner kids, too.
I am looking forward to the Holy Bull which came up loaded. I believe Tiz The Bomb will fire a big shot today and get the win. David Aragon’s from DRF says Tiz will be ready and has been training like a beast at GP. on the dirt. Simplification will be trying 2 turns for the first time and will be facing a much stronger group than he did in the MMM. I see him facing pax’s pressure from Cajun and White Abarrio. White zAbbario missed some training time which is never a good thing. Giant Game is good but he drew to the far outside and could get caught wide into the first turn. IMO Mo wants longer and he could be far behind early and have trouble running down the leaders. Tiz The Bomb for the win. Safe trips to all.
Good analysis, JoeP. A loaded race, indeed. Good luck!
Swale Stakes: 1/ 3-4-5, ($20.00 Trifecta)
Holy Bull: 4/ 2-6-8-9, ($2.00 Superfecta) and 4/ 2-6-8-9, ($2.00 Super Hi-5)
Safe trips to all.
I hit my trifecta, and cleared $324.00.
It’s always nice to use house money to bet with, which I used for my Holy Bull bets.
I used $96.00 dollars to cover my Superfecta and Super Hi-5 wagers and placed a $200.00 win wager on Simplification.
The Holy Bull should be one of best Derby prep races to date.
BTW. earlier in the week, Pletcher stated My Prankster, (winner of the Swale), would be restricted to sprints and no more than one mile.
I’m hoping he might change his mind and at least try My Prankster in a two- turn race, just to see what he can do stretching out.
Rats! Simplification blew the break and was caught in traffic early on, which is not conducive to his running style. He made a gallant effort to finish 2nd, but his chances for the win were pretty much compromised at the start.
On Feb. 4th, I posted a comment about boxing White Abarrio with Simplification in Derby Futures Pool 2, which would pay a hefty $9099.00. Needless to say I should have played that same exacta in the Holy Bull. Yes, I know, coulda, woulda, shoulda.
BTW, I couldn’t help noticing the big closing effort by Mo Donegal to finish 3rd. Had this been a 9 furlong race, he probably would have won it. I’m sure Pletcher is quite pleased with Mo Donegal and will more than likely point him to the FOY and Fla. Derby.
If the Holy Bull Stakes had been run at 9f. White Abarrio still would have won, in hand. He wasn’t stopping.
What about the Classic distance? Do you think White Abarrio can go 10 furlongs without slowing down?
First things first, let’s see how he handles the 9f Florida Derby.
February is not the month to select a Kentucky Derby winner and there’s a huge difference in a young colt being able to run 9f in Spring and 10f. Moreover, there has been such a dominance of speed, over stamina, influences during the past 40 years or so that predicting a colt will, or will not run a fast 10f is really a guess these days.
Will White Abarrio be competitive at 10f? Thus far, there hasn’t been a colt that you’d bet your house on that they will. Stay tuned.
Like the horse, not trainer.
It’s a beautiful day in South Florida and I’m on my way to Gulfstream. Maybe I’ll see the next Kentucky Derby winner. I’ll be rooting for Simplificationn but it’s a tough race. I don’t consider myself an expert handicapper, but why the heck is Eloquist in this race? Fifth-place purse money? Ha ha!
I went with Tiz the Bomb at Gulfstrem, and exacta boxed with Mo Donegal…up at the Big A I went with a longshot Grantham, I like a horse that has been working at Turfway, and this guy has posted consistent works…should be a big number….
Good luck, Matthew. Intriguing picks. There’s an odd learning curve going on with me. The more I study, the less I know. At Aqueduct, which currently is MUDDY, I’m favoring Smarten Up (10-1) and Cooke Creek (King Barbaro’s pick below — 6-1). At Gulfstream, the value play among the favorites may be Giant Game (7-2). Though I’m not much of an exotics player, I may try to work in Galt (15-1) and Cajun’s Magic (8-1).
Good luck, Matthew. Intriguing picks. There’s an odd learning curve going on with me. The more I study, the less I know. At Aqueduct, which currently is MUDDY, I’m favoring Smarten Up (10-1) and Cooke Creek (King Barbaro’s pick below — 6-1). At Gulfstream, the value play among the favorites could be Giant Game (7-2). Though I’m not much of an exotics player, I may try to work in Galt (15-1) and Cajun’s Magic (8-1).
There’s no need to double post the same comment EddieF. Just saying. 🙂
Bill everyone I’m sure has $crewed up postings before. As my son always tells me when I get worked up over politics…Chill!
Wait! He said my posts were “intriguing”, he can double post a compliment anytime he wants! I guess Tiz the Law will be running on Derby Day—in the American Turf!
t appears the handicapping dilemma that the surface at the Big A generates isn’t going ways anytime soon
12/2/2021 – MSW 9F (Fast) 1st – Courvoisier – 24.02; 48.85,1:14.48; 1:42.16; 1:56.55
12/2/2021 – MSW 9F (fast) 2nd – ConstitutionalLawyer – 24.02; 48.85,1:14.48; 1:42.16; 1:56.55 – Equibase Figure 59
1/02/2022 – MSW 9F (S/Sd) 1st ConstitutionalLawyer – 23.61; 47.77,1:12.74; 1:38.60; 1:52.29 – Equibase Figure 91
12/4/2021 – Remsen 9F (Fast) 1st – Mo Donegal – 25.18; 51.47,1:16.34; 1:41.28; 1:53.61 – Equibase Figure 93
Is it to be concluded that a sloppy/sealed surface at the Big A results in times being 4 second faster for 8F & 9F?
Is Mo Donegal 3 seconds faster than Courvoisier or did he benefit from the pedestrian fractions for the first 6F of the Remsen?
The fractions for 2F, 4F & 6 in the Courvoisier race 2 days earlier, were between 1, 2 & 3 second faster. But the final time was 3 seconds slower.
My Derby dark horse Gilded Age will be making his graded stakes debut in the Withers. Given the grossly unstable surface at the Big A. I really do not know how the colt will perform. But with a ML of 10/1, I will be all in.
The long stretch at the Big A should suite him. His retained rider is deadly with closers. So that’s two major positive. Another positive has to be Gilded Age’s pedigree. The 2021 Wood Memorial winner Bourbonic was sired by Bernardini who just happens to be the dam sire of GA. That race was contested on a surface from hell. Enticed the runner up to Vino Rosso in the 2018 Wood was sired by Medaglia D Oro. Risk Taking another Medaglia D Oro colt was the favorite in 2021 Wood, broke his maiden over 9F at the Big A. It appears the progenies of Medaglia D Oro perform fairly well on the surface from hell.
Bill Mott entrants in KD Preps –
Gilde Age by Medaglia D’ Oro (4 starts – 6th, 8th 5th, 1st) Grade stakes debut
Galt by Medaglia D’ Oro (3 starts – 6th, 6th, 1st) Grade stakes debut
Can he take the double with two colts from the same sire who both had horrendous starts to their careers?
The progenies of Not This Time and Gun Runner seem to be winning with impressive regularity.
From time-to-time I access the BH web site for the link to The Jockey Club records for mares bred. I recently check the record of the last great son of Danzig i.e., Hard Spun. He bred 143 mares in 2018 resulting in a reported 118 live foals. A check of Hard Spun’s Stallion Register reveals he has no 3YO male or female that has recorded a top 3 finish in any kind of stakes race.
The son of Danzig was expected to be the best stallion emerging from the hot 3YO crop of 2007. Curlin Street Sense and Hard Spun were the top 3YO males. It wouldn’t be a stretch to conclude that of the 3, Hard Spun has not lived up to expectation. But it only takes one brilliant progeny for a course correction.
When a colt that wins over 9F with a powerful stretch run whilst closing from last, is provided with water and it knocks away the bucket without taking a sip. What should be the takeaway? “I do not require any water but rather more ground to cover. This colt could be the one that relaunches Hard Spun’s stallion career.
If this colt can improve in the tactical speed department, he will emerge a serious Derby horse. He has the size and stride length to be an exceptional router. Does he have the class? I think yes! The stretch at the Fairgrounds would be ideally suited to his running style. But the one at GP appears a shade too short but it will certainly help with his stride turn over race.
As big fan of Hard Spun, I hope the colt emerges as one of his exceptional representatives.
Mr Coldfacts, I think you are a bit harsh in your assessment of Hard Spun’s stallion careers so far. Just last year the leading North America sires list had Curlin at no. 2, Hard Spun at no. 7, and Street Sense at no. 9. Assuming you are correct, just because he hasn’t YET had a good Stakes runner in this crop doesn’t mean he’s inferior to the other sires. Now I gotta figure out who the mystery horse is that you didn’t mention by name.
He’s always ‘harsh’.
Watch out for Cooke Creek Saturday.
I’m looking past the Jerome, maybe it was the slop, maybe it was a 2-month leg stretcher. I’m looking at his Nashua which was a very nice run against those splits, and a fantastic gallop out. That race is easily good enough to win the Withers. I think he should be 9/2 at the most, so 6-1 ml looks good to me. Good luck to all taking shots this weekend.
Nice selection, KB. That 2-month layoff could be significant with regard to CC’s form cycle. And he was second in the Nashua to Rockefeller, who then ran second to the undefeated Newgrange in the G3 Sham. Tough post, but at good odds he’s a solid play.
I am truly sorry that I posted although I stand by my opinion. I tried to delete my post but I couldn’t do it. Please do not respond because I don’t want to see this website turn into an argument. Just keep talking about who you think will win the Derby.
Fts that baffert came up as bathroom. Today with horse racing if I don’t laugh I will cry sad tears.
bathroom? What is your point?
auto correct……baffert came up as bathroom
Good knowing you’re on top of anything regarding your king.
It’s sad that the obvious 2-year-old champion is not even mentioned and probably won’t run in the derby. The owners can make plenty of money off of the horse on fees. Sorry if I sound like a jerk but reality has to set in. I cried with joy when I saw pharaoh and Secretariat win the triple crown. I cried real sad tears when Churchill sold Hollywood Park and Arlington.sec.ran on roids
.. who knows about pharaoh and justify? I do know that they looked well taken care of. They weren’t starving. Too many horses are starving. I’ll take bathroom over the three piece suits at Churchill Downs any day.
I can only speak for myself, but I accept your apology.
Your post is fine. Common sense tells you this horse had an issue……it is not because they dont like money, fame. We run horses when they are doing good.
People don’t realize, if a vet says 60 days………you wait 60 days…….this is probably the case.
Big departure from usually pushing them just to make Derby,eh?
In Derby Rankings: Week 3, Not This Time has two of his colts in the top 16, Simplification at #13 and Epicenter at #16.
Will we see another Not This Time colt added to the top 16 in Week 4? In Due Time, by Not This Time, out of a Curlin mare, was quite impressive in beating the 4/5 favorite, American Icon in a today’s 9th race at GP.
In the Brisnet.com past performance sheet for this race, In Due Time, was rated on top in the “Average Class Last 3″ and had the 2nd fastest Late Pace Last Race” figure at 92. I, like many others, thought the race was between American Icon and Iron Works and dismissed the rest of the field for win honors. In Due Time proved he was much the best.
Now, the question is, will Mr. Haskin add another Not This Time colt to Derby Rankings: Week 4?
Stay tuned.
I’d have a stab and suggest that the winner/placings in the Holy Bull Stakes, Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Withers Stakes, possibly the Swale Stakes or even the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes and Kitten’s Joy Stakes might be of greater relevance.
Nonetheless, good luck with In Due Time, you never know.
Well stated.
More than likely the winners of the races you mentioned are already listed somewhere in Derby Rankings: Week 3.
BTW, the Swale Stakes awards no Derby points, so that race should not affect next week’s rankings.
It’s always interesting to see new horses show up in Weekly Rankings. In Due Time just might be one of the new shooters.
Yes, it’s true that the Swale, Jimmy Winkfield, and Kitten’s Joy Stakes don’t carry points but occasionally a superior winner might launch an attempt at the Derby from any ‘stakes’ sphere. Remember, Steve Haskin is very keen on sprint starts to begin a campaign or spotting a turf runner who may be able to transfer their ability to the dirt tracks.
“More than likely the winners of the races you mentioned are already listed somewhere in Derby Rankings: Week 3.”
Do you realize that the sentence above argues a point that’s opposite the one you’re attempting to make? If horses in Steve’s current list win their races this weekend, that would make it less likely for your In Due Time to be moved up. But the fact is that the only weekend runners on Steve’s list are in the RB Lewis (Messier) and the Holy Bull (Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Simplification, and Giant Game). There could be no movement or plenty of movement, depending on the outcomes. If there are to be additions, they’ll be more likely to come from the Derby points preps than from an allowance race in which the two heavy favorites were debut maiden sprint winners and in which the winner ran the final furlong in 13 seconds.
“BTW, the Swale Stakes awards no Derby points, so that race should not affect next week’s rankings.”
You say the G3 Swale Stakes doesn’t award Derby points, so the results shouldn’t affect the next Rankings. But, in your view, the winner of a one-turn allowance race (with obviously NO Derby points) SHOULD be considered. That is illogical.
Thank goodness our host, Mr. Haskin, doesn’t think like you do, or insult other contributors to his blog like you do.
If he did, I would venture to say, a lot of the regulars on this blog would be leaving in short order.
Now, pick up your toys and clean your room.
Eddie brings valuable racing opinions. Seems CF should be included regarding insulting ‘other contributors’. Yes?
Just out of curiosity, what “valuable racing opinions” does EddieF bring to Steve Haskin’s blog pray tell?
He’s certainly not original in his comments, but merely parrots comments posted by others who are more in tune with horse racing. Aside from the alleged humor he attempts to post now and then, he doesn’t have much to offer, IMO.
Have a good day Mike.
Easy answer. Much info/news he brings regarding horses,etc is valuable,which helps me out sometimes. Noticed you avoided my question. What does CF bring besides insulting the host as well as horses? To state he hasn’t exactly endured himself is an understatement.
If you depend on EddieF to,”help you out”, you’re in big trouble.
In addition, if you have a bone to pick with Coldfacts, I suggest you take it up with him. He’s very capable of defending himself and doesn’t need me to speak on his behalf.
lol He attempts at throwing punches,then flees. As for Eddie, I’m way smart enough to recognize someone who brings something to table, (which Eddie does) and a classic BS’er. Not my first rodeo.
Bill, I wish I could just say this to you privately but you’re really embarrassing yourself. Eddie F rebutted your comments. That’s not insulting.
Thanks Roberta. Unreal!
Evidently, you missed EddieF’s comment referring to me as “feeble minded”, along with other insults, which was ultimately removed by the Moderator. With all due respect Roberta, your definition of a rebuttal vs an insult are not the same as mine.
Have a nice day Roberta.
In Due Time beats the heavy favorite American Icon, going one mile in 1:35 and change. Impressive to say the least.
A new shooter winning surprisingly easily. Another son of Not This Time … what a year the son of Giant’s Causeway is having …!
Trainspotting rising three year olds can be fun…even when a lot of them turn out to be train wrecks the same day. Lol. American Icon and Iron Works are now discarded for In Due Time. In a blink of the eye.
LOL. Ain’t that the truth.
I posted a reply that is awaiting “moderation.” In referring to both male and female horses, I typed the word “s/e/x/e/s.” Sheesh!
Maybe you should have stuck with mare, gelding, stallion, colt and filly.
Or just “boys and girls.” 🙂
Back in business! Thank you, moderator.
it’s an AUTO PROGRAM…………….the 1st three letters ……..if it wasnt on there , than someone could say bad things about what you should do…….
Gosh, thanks for letting me know that it’s an automatic filtering system and not some poor fellow paid to read every word of every comment 24 hours a day. The system filters the word “xes” (backwards). That’s why a “Sheesh!”
lol Good one!!!!!
Just a reminder on today’s 9th race at GP. It appears to be a match race between the two Pletcher colts, American Icon and Iron Works. It’s not too late for one or both of these colts to make some noise on the Derby trail.
Thanks for the reminder Bill.
I like American Icon to win this one and move upward in the ranks… 2 hours to that interesting race!
Graphic Detail and Mr. Bouma were scratched but still it is a very good group there.
You’re welcome, Nelson.
I agree, American Icon checks a lot of boxes and the one to beat.
Hot Rod Charlie by 5 in Dubai
He’s not exactly a “Corgi”, but Hot Rod Charlie has short front legs! And he loves company! Was coming back on Express Train, in the San Antonio….just a good horse!
If I am not mistaken, the great race mare Winx’s forelegs are shorter than her hind legs.
So are mine, but I’ve always been able to run from the rail to the betting window in less than 15 seconds.
LOL
What she said.
?????…………seriously??????
Over the moon!!!
His odds should have been 1-9 in that field.
Hot Rod Charlie paid 1 to 4 to win
That was a bargain!
The time of 01:57:41 for his 1900-mt prep was very good considering the heavy going… looks good for the World Cup.
Doug O’Neill had a very good start at Meydan taking two firsts, two seconds with five horses
Hope the racing gods continue to look favorably on his group of horses. So hope Charlie wins the World Cup. That would make my year (so far).
Mr. H,
At your earliest convenience revisit A MSW (Race #5) at CD on 11/27/2021. This the same day Smile Happy won the Kentucky Jockey Club.
I am inclined to believe the winner is likely to be the major KD prospect after Saturday.
Try reading Knocking on the door.
You are kind of late … read below what Steve wrote the very first week of the Rankings:
“One horse to keep an eye on who has been turning in some strong works at Palm Meadows is the Rusty Arnold-trained SPIN WHEEL, who broke his maiden going 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs, breaking from post 11, hesitating at the start, going four-wide on the first turn, dropping back to 10th, then 11th, then 12th and looking like he had no shot to finish on the board. But he cut the corner, came around one horse, dropped back to the rail, squeezed his way through a narrow opening and just got up to win by a nose before opening up 10 lengths on the gallop-out. He looks like an intriguing colt who needs to get faster and not drop so far out of it.”
I’m inclined to believe we’re all going to be kicking ourselves for dismissing White Abarrio at 171/1 in Pool 2 if he wins the Holy Bull.
I for one didn’t dismiss White Abarrio in Derby Futures Pool 2. I boxed him with Simplification in one of my exacta wagers.
In the event Simplification and White Abarrio were to finish 1st and 2nd in the Derby, I would receive a handsome payout.
A Simplification/White Abarrio finish would pay $7,183.00
A White Abarrio/Simplification finish would pay a whopping $9,099.00!!!
I’m not getting my hopes up, but I can dream, can’t I?
Below is the field for the Holy Bull. The entrants DOB, debut dates along with the position each finished are highlighted.
Galt -DOB (2/18/2019) Debut (9/4/2021) 6 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 6th.
Mo Donegal -DOB ( 4/19/2019) Debut (9/30/2021) 5 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 3rd
Loguist -DOB (4/25/2019) Debut (8/8/2021) 3 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 6th
Simplification -DOB (2/28/2019) Debut (10/1/2021) 7 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 5th
Cajun’s Magic -DOB (4/03/2019) Debut (5/29/2021) 1 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 2nd
Tiz The Bomb -DOB (2/18/2019) Debut (5/14/2021) 2 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 7th
Spin Wheel -DOB (3/18/2019) Debut (8/28/2021) 5 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 6th
White Abarrio -DOB (3/18/2019) Debut (9/24/2021) 5 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 1st
Glant Game -DOB (2/22/2019) Debut (9/18/2021) 6 months plus after reaching age of two. Finished 3rd
.
This the kind of insignificant data to which I have attributed time. What can be extracted from the above data? Little if
anything. Irrespective, it’s interesting to note that White Abarrio is the only debut winner in the field. Cajun’s Magic with a DOB of 4/3/2019, made his debut in the month following the gelding turning fully two. He recorded the 2nd best debut finish in the field. The majority of the other entrants in the field made their debuts at an average of 5 months after turning two. Most were badly defeated.,
After White Abarrioa’s smashing 6 1/2F debut win. It appears he was sold and transferred to the barn of Saffie Josephs. An easy 4L win over 8f followed. He then finished finished 3rd in his stakes debut to the #1 ranked Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
The rankings for week 3 doesnt contain White Abarrio in the top 16. In fact, he isn’t mentioned in the KOTD section. One might be tempted to conclude his exclusion from both sections, is inexcusable. Why? Classic Causeway the runner up in the KJC and who is yet to make his 3YO debut, is ranked at #15. Call Me Midnight the 6th place finisher in the KJC is ranked at #14 on the strength of his Lecomte win.
It Took Call Me Midnight 5 starts to break his maiden. White Abarrio was a 6 1/2L winner on debut and followed up with a 4L win over 8F. CMM was making his 6th start in the KJC and 5th at CD. White Abarrio made his 3rd start in the KJC and first at CD. From an experience s and venue perspective, CMM had an advantage. Despite this advantage CMM finished 4L behind White Abarrio who didn’t have the best of trips due to traffic problems. But CMM is ranked in the top 16 and White Abarrio doesn’t make the week #3 cut. It doesn’t compute. White Abarrio must have a big shot at winning the HB.
Cajun’s Magic has a DOB of 4/3/2019. His debut was in the month following the colt becoming fully two. He recorded the 2nd best debut finish in the field. Given that most in the field made their debuts about 5 months after turning two. Does this suggest Cajun Magic is a tough as nails? He had already made 5 starts when most in the field were making their debuts.
He hasn’t race since September. From his 5 starts he has two wins and three seconds. He contested all 3 races in the FL Stallion Series. He finished 2nd by 1 3/4L in the 8 1/2F In Reality Stakes. The final time of 1:43. 97 appear to be a stake record as no previous renewal has returned a time below 1:44. This gelding has already proven his toughness and ability. With 4 additional months of development, he could return much improved and be a formidable opponent top 3 in the field. I consider him alive longshot
Hey, CF. I agree that Cajun’s Magic has a shot at a good price, at least for a piece. I mentioned him yesterday. I don’t know what happened with the winner of the In Reality, Octane. He was looking good as a Derby prospect, but he hasn’t worked and there’s nothing reported. By the way, the Fla Stallion series moved from Calder to Gulfstream in 2014. Times at Calder for 8.5f were always slower than at GP. But Octane’s time last year was the fastest since the move to GP … and before.
He is on a good Thoro-Graph pattern
Good to know. Thanks!
Try reading Knocking on the Door.
Good day Coldfacts
Cajun’s Magic brings back memories of Three Rules winning all three Florida Stallion Series back in 2014. He was exposed in the BC Juvenile that year, finishing a distant 6th. In 14 subsequent races he reached the winner’s circle only once. In my view, the quality of horses that run in the Florida Stallion Series have to be questioned. I consider Simplification the horse to beat in the Holy Bull. His sire, Not This Time, finished a close 2nd behind Classic Empire in the 2014 edition of the BC Juvenile.
In my view, the quality of horses in the Holy Bull field are far superior to those Cajun’s Majic faced in the Florida Stallion Series races.
I plan on taking a shot at the Super Hi-5 in the Holy Bull, Keying Simplification on top, with Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, White Abarrio and Giant Game underneath in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th slots.
Good luck if you bet the race Facts.
There have been at least 3 Fla Stallion series horses that have won the Holy Bull Stakes since 2000. That series has produced a number of top-class horses AND champions of both sexes. I’m not saying that CM will win, but it’s not wise to toss him just because he’s coming out of the FSS — particularly at his likely double-digit odds.
How many of those 3 Florida Stallion Series horses who have won the Holy Bull Stakes have gone on to compete in the KD?
I would venture to say, none. Cajun’s Majic is a gelding, which in my opinion, is not conducive to being a major player in these Derby prep races. When you state, “it’s not wise to toss him just because he’s coming out of the FSS”, I’ll toss him in all my betting wagers in the Holy Bull. We’ll know soon enough if Cajun’s Magic belongs in a graded race.
Jeez, Bill. You’re really going out on a limb there about a longshot. LOL.
Jeez, EddieF. Did ever stop to think there’s a reason why Cajun’s Majic is a longshot?
I’m still waiting to hear how many of those 3 FFS winners of the Holy Bull, have gone on to compete in the KD. I won’t hold my breath.
Your brain works in mysterious ways. The topic wasn’t the Kentucky Derby. It was the Holy Bull Stakes.
All topics on this blog lead to the Kentucky Derby. Try and keep up EddieF.
Try and keep up EddieF” — Priceless. This entire thread (Do you know what a thread is?) is about Cajun’s Magic’s chances – decent or none — to win or just getting a piece in the Holy Bull Stakes. But you know what? I’m in a generous mood, so I’ll answer your irrelevant question, that being “How many of those 3 Florida Stallion Series horses who have won the Holy Bull Stakes have gone on to compete in the KD?” Did you ever hear about attorneys never asking a witness a question to which the attorney doesn’t know the answer?
The answer: One of the three, CLOSING ARGUMENT, ran in the Kentucky Derby…and he finished…DRUM ROLL…second by a half length to Giacomo! By the way, the other two ran in the Preakness, as did Closing Argument, and they were able to defeat some horses that DIDN’T run in the FSS. Booklet won the FOY after the Holy Bull, and he finished second in the Blue Grass.
Have an atty. friend and his girlfriend. We gamble together,that’s how we met. lol
Giant Game’s 3rd place finish in the BCJ appears to have been viewed as just another longshot that surprisingly made the top 3. Many with blogs and Youtube channels didn’t have Giant Game in either the top 8 or 10 in their initial lists…
The MLs favorite for the Holy Bull @5/2 is Mo Donegal. In the Week 1 rankings, Mo Dangal was ranked just ahead of Giant Game. That has since been rectified. Why would the individual that has been tasked with setting the MLs, view Mo Donegal as the likely favorite?
Mo Donegal and Giant Game both have 3 career starts. Both were defeated on debut, and both were next out winners. Their respective 3rd start was in a graded stake. Mo Donegal won the (G2) Rensen in a stretch duel with fellow last out MSW winner Zandon. Giant Game finished 3rd by 3 1/4L in the BCJ (G1). It required two graded stake winners to keep him out the winner enclosure. In addition, he finished ahead of a G1 winner and the runner up in the G1 Champagne. Surely such a performance in a debut against winners in a G1, had to command a certain amount of respect.
The task Giant Game was faced with in the BCJ, in which when came up 3 1/4L short. Was far greater than the one Mo Donegal faced when he won the G2 Remsen by a NS. I doubt Mo Donegal is deemed to be a good as Commandperformance. Giant Game finished ahead of Commandperformance who the 2nd wagering choice in the BCJ.
The colts will be matching strides for the first time in the HB. Which is better is to be determined. However, if a 3rd place finish in the biggest graded stakes on the calendar for 2YO. Doesn’t bear more weight than a hard-fought win over a fellow last out MS winner. There are really no logical reasons to use PP in any form of evaluation.
I don’t see a threat to Early Voting in the Withers. Unfortunately, with the top connections on his side as well, expecting him to get bet down heavily from the morning line. Thinking no higher than 8-5.
Wow, I can’t remember a more stacked field for a 3yo race than this edition of the Holy Bull. Can’t wait for this one.
RE: Holy Bull Stakes
When comparing the pedestrian like fractions set in the Remsen Stakes, vs those set by Simplification in the MMM Stakes, it’s hard to understand why Mo Donegal is the M/L favorite at 3-1, and not Simplification , who is listed at 4-1. Granted, different tracks, different distances and different racing conditions, but the fractions set by Simplification were substantially faster than those that were set in the Remsen.
Let’s compare those fractions;
Remsen: 25.18, 51.47, 1:16.34, 1:41.28 and a final time of 1:53.61 (9 furlongs)
MMM: 23.70, 45.81, 1:09.96, 1:22.60 and a final time of 1:35.04 (8 furlongs)
Simplification ran 6.24 seconds faster than Mo Donegal at a mile.
Is Simplification fast than Mo Donegal? The fractional time differential would certainly suggest that Simplification is the fast of the two. Just my opinion.
Edit to above
I should have stated “faster” in my last paragraph. I need to proof read my posts more closely. Please excuse.
Never am I concerned w/ numbers.
Bill, do you think that Simplification will have a 28- to 30-length advantage over Mo Donegal after a half-mile and a mile?
EddieF, your question is so off the wall, it doesn’t deserve an answer. Enough said.
As I stated in a previous post (a few weeks back), don’t give up your day job, you’ll never make it as a standup comic. 🙁
After reading Chad Brown’s comments concerning the decision to enter Zandon in the Risen Star rather than the Holy Bull, I’m not very confident the colt will be at his best in New Orleans. Looks like the Risen Star will be the best field yet for this crop.
Hi Eddie – I,m not concerned with Zandon Shipping go the FG for the Risen Star. The good ones can take their show on the road. Zandon should appreciate the long FG stretch as well as running again at 1 1/8, his gallop out in the Remsen was impressive and the longer the better for Zandon. Hoping Tiz The Bomb gets overlooked in the Holy Bull and sits a good stalking trip. I will single Tiz in the Holy Bull in my .50c P5 so I can spread in the other races.
I too like Tiz the Bomb!
Hey, JoeP. I wouldn’t have been concerned AT ALL except for what I read. This is Brown on the decision:
“The owner doesn’t like the short wire at Gulfstream Park, which is speed-favoring,” Brown said. “He has some good points and I can’t argue with him. Shipping (to New Orleans) is the only angle which I don’t love. Zandon is doing quite well and is ready to run now, so to wait until the 19th makes me feel a little more uncomfortable, but then again the Risen Star has a lot more qualifying points than the Holy Bull.”
There’s a lot to read into that, and very little is positive. There are so many horses I like that are possible entries for the Risen Star. It’s not likely that all of them come out of the race smelling as good as before the race. Good luck with Tiz on Saturday. I haven’t done my homework yet.
I think you worry too much. Lol. A third in the Risen Star is as good as winning the Holy Bull Stakes, in points, and 4th in the Risen Star has more points than coming second in the Holy Bull Stakes. The Holy Bull Stakes appears to be as wide open as the Grand Canyon.
Would you really want to finish 3rd or 4th in the penultimate prep? Of the 1st-place Derby finishers since I’ll Have Another, all but Medina won all of their 3yo preps. Look at the top horses in the Holy Bull, and then the top horses among the possibles/probables in the Risen Star. I’m with Brown. Zandon should have stayed home.
HOLY BULL
Mo Donegal, Giant Game, Simplification, Tiz the Bomb
RISEN STAR
Smile Happy, Slow Down Andy, Epicenter, Pappacap, Call Me Midnight
I’d be adding White Abarrio to that list in the Holy Bull Stakes, with Galt and Cajun’s Magic not to be disregarded either. That’s a lot of horses to beat for a piece of a very small pie. You can’t really gauge the Risen Star Stakes until the field materializes but the numbers to beat would probably equate the same numerically as the Holy Bull Stakes, with a much larger pie to fight over.
Don’t forget Zandon is also nominated for the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 12, if Brown gets too concerned with Zandon treading water when he ‘has’ to go. Now, I do like Tampa Bay as a prep before going out to win points – big time.
Well, I think that a horse like Zandon is probably nominated to all of the preps east of the Mississippi. Considering what’s been said to this point, there’s almost no chance the owner would change course. Besides, the TBD stretch isn’t much longer than GP’s. But you’re right, the HB has a solid field.
The Tampa surface, although not as arduous as a decade or so ago, would benefit Zandon no end but then again, sometimes it can do the reverse. That’s why you have trainers, to sort out these things. Ha ha
Agree regarding Zandon. Not favorable,considering he’s ready now.
That’s why I moved him down a notch and moved Rattle N Roll up. I love the horse but hate when owners make the decisions where to run. I explain it all in my comments. Difference between having 3 starts and 2. Holy Bull would have been a good first step for a lightly raced horse. He’s a had 6 works since Christmas. Not crazy about Smile Happy having only 2 starts either.
Steve, you’re giving away the order of Monday’s top 3!! You currently have Giant Game at #4. If he wins big on Saturday, could HE move up? I agree completely about Zandon and Smile Happy with two starts as 2 year olds having just two Derby preps. It’s not been the best ticket to the Derby winner’s circle. There was the Winstrol poster boy Big Brown (one 2yo start) and Animal Kingdom. That’s it!
I mean right now. I tiz the Bomb wins McPeek could have top 3
That would be wild. I’ll bet you’ve never had, at any stage, three horses at the top that have the same trainer.
First bet of the TC on Gilded Age in the Withers.
>Good article~ Nice write..But I have a question…I noticed that Corniche is not included. Though I know he’s a Baffert horse, but so is Newgrange. ?!?
The only thing I’ve read from reports is that Corniche is “galloping at WinStar Farm in Kentucky, looks healthy and appears to have gained about 75 lbs”…..
Breeding…….breeding people dont like his breeding……..forget the last 30 years of being wrong……..they still go on breeding…….its hilarious………..do i have to name all the winners the “breeding people ” were wrong about?……….why they keep doing this is hilarious
Take note … Hot Rod Charlie will run in Dubai this Friday at 11:20 am Eastern Time. The Vox Populi winner is contesting the 1900 meters of the Grade 2 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2.
He is 4/5 in the morning line against an overmatched field. It should be a little more than a USD 210,00-public workout serving as prep for the Dubai World Cup.
Watching Hot Rod Charlie in Dubai will be a nice preface to the exciting weekend of racing in America.
It’s on at 3:30 am Saturday morning here, Melbourne time. 50/50.
No problem for you, Davids. You’ll just be arriving home after a night on the town.
Sometimes I am happy having to wake up 3:30 am to empty my bladder…
All that carousing!
Nelson, that’s the 50/50. If I’m woken at 3:30 am and have to pee I’ll click it on.
No, we’ve actually decided to skip “Touching the Void” on Friday night because of the fears of picking up omicron. The set for “Touching the Void” looks incredible but what can you do with the virus running rampant at present here.
Next Friday night we have tickets to see “Die Walküre” you make sacrifices.
Ah ha! So you’re selective about WHERE you will pick up the virus. 😉
I’ll look up “Touching the Void.” I have no idea what it is.
I went to Moulin Rouge on Boxing Day, three days later it closed because a cast member had picked up the virus. You’re right though, if I’m going to pick up the virus at least I’d have seen/heard “Ride of the Valkyries” in the process.
“ Hojotoho! Hojotoho! Heiaha! Heiaha!
Helmwige! Here! Guide hither thy horse!”
Davids, You have a reasonable philosophy of life!
Hello Steve – I like TIZ The Bombs PP6 in the Holy Bull. He drew outside likely Pacesetter Simplification and should sit a good stalking trip. I have to support TIZ, my 10-1 bet from KDFW2. Glad Zandon opted to run in the Risen Star for the 50 points to the winner. The long FG stretch should benefit the long winded Zandon. My 2 KDFW horses as of now are TIZ The Bomb at 10-1 in KDFW2 and Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1.
I’m with the Simplification supporters, for the Holy Bull and maybe even the Kentucky derby if all goes well. I know that Gulfstream raced horses don’t do very well in the Holy Bull stakes, but Greatest Honor did last year.
I do hope you have taken precautions this time, Roberta. I fear you are going to be ‘shocked’ once again. Hard hat required while viewing the Holy Bull Stakes!!
Ha ha ha! I won’t be shocked regardless of the outcome, David. This race is nothing like the Southwest Stakes. It’s a long way from looking like a one or two horse race. I should wear a hard hat at Marlins games where my life has flashed before my eyes as line drives have missed my noggin by inches.
That’s true Roberta, no one would surprise in the Holy Bull Stakes. White Abarrio intrigues me a bit, being by Race Day. Barber Road, also by Race Day, is performing admirably on the Derby trial. As soon as they sell these young sires overseas their progeny start to take off.
I see the speed and staying power of Simplifiaction as his best weapons to win the Holy Bull.
Simplification entered many watch lists after breaking his maiden by 16 3/4 lengths cloaking a excellent time of 1:09.54 for 6 furlongs. Following that auspicious win, he was a disappointing third as the 1 to 5 favorite in a 6-furlong Allowance race. Steve explained (in week 2) the trouble causing that subpar performance.
The way Simplification won the Mucho Macho Man finding another powerful gear when changing leads suggests that he will welcome longer races. The son of hot sire Not This Time easily beat the 4-to-5 favorite Strike Hard who has Stakes experience and is an excellent mile performer. Strike Hard justified the preference of the public thanks to a second to White Abarrio (another Holy Bull contender) in a mile ran in 1: 36 3/5 and an easy win in a fast 1:35 3/5 for the mile prior to the Mucho Macho Man.
Simplification’s impressive win in the mile of the Mucho Macho Man was consistent with his spectacular maiden win. His 95 seconds flat for the mile was the fastest mile of the year at Gulfstream. Enough reason for his Trainer Antonio Sano to start having serious thoughts about the Derby. Besides Sano and Castellano are nice rhyming names…!
Simplification was about a second faster than Kathleen O. who won very easily (8 lenghts) the mile of the Cash Run Stakes the same day. The highly regarded 4-year-old Speaker’s Corner clocked 1:36.39 in winning the mile of the G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes last Saturday ….
There is more reasons for optimism after looking at Simplification pedigree.
His second dam, Stakes-placed Ballado’s Halo, is full sister to Hall of Fame Ashado, also full to Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes winner Sunriver and to 2006 Native Diver Handicap winner Saint Stephen.
Ballado’s Halo is the grand dam of Inflexibility the winner of the 2017 Wonder Where Stakes at Woodbine, the third leg of Canada’s Triple Tiara for 3-year-old fillies. Inflexibility was third in the Queen Plate Stakes, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. She defeated the future Champion 3 year-old in Canada and Eclipse Award 2020 Champion Turf Male Channel Maker in that All Weather Stakes.
The cross Saint Ballado/Goulash has been very prolific and is no surprise to see Simplification inheriting the superior family class.
Also, as Steve explained in week 1, an inbred 5 x 5 to Herbager, Blushing Groom and Northern Dancer provides Simplification with stamina to spare.
I am simplifying my life by singling Simplification in the Holy Bull…!
Good luck to every one … and enjoy the three Derby preps this weekend!
You make a strong case for Simplification. I need to pore over the PPs before I commit to declaring the likely winner and the best value. 🙂 Do you think that the ML will hold and that Mo D will be the favorite? The ML odds are very close among the top horses. There could be a surprise overlay or underlay.
I suspect Simplification will be taking a lot of money from the Latin community there.
The son of Not This Time is the only one with real chance to enter the Derby for the Spanish-speaking horsemen based at Gulfstream…
We will have to wait for the odds pre-race to pinpoint any underlay… you have already mentioned Galt as one who could over-run his odds.
Let’s wait to see how speed will play this Saturday at Gulfstream…
Hi Nelson
The favorite, Mo Donegal, has shown the ability to close on pedestrian like fractions as witnessed in the Remsen, however, does he have the ability to close on the blistering fractions that Simplification will likely set in the Holy Bull? Doubtful
If Simplification gets a clean break, he’ll more than likely wire this field.
I was delighted to hear that Demi Bobo changed her mind about waiting for the Florida Derby and has opted to run Simplification in the Holy Bull. Trainer Antonio Sano might have administered a little arm twisting to change her mind. 🙂
Yes Bill… it does not take much to know that Simplification is the fastest horse in the field.
I just hope that Castellano is able to use it wisely… I don’t know what Gaffalione and Luis Saez will be doing with White Abarrio and Giant Game. They both look sharp in speed and going outside of Simplification will be advantageous tactically.
Key assumption is that no other one is able to run the mile faster than 95 seconds as Simplification did…but racing luck is always needed in those high caliber races.
Bobo must have mixed up the schedule …. Trainers know better than the owners when plotting the way forward…
If Tiz the Bomb can transfer his turf form to dirt, I see this McPeek colt as Simplification’s main threat.
If it’s a typical day at GP, early speed will be valuable. You are correct…. the pace advantage coupled with the hometown support could make Simplification the favorite. The one that could surprise is Cajun’s Magic. He finished second to the highly regarded and apparently injured Octane in the final two legs of the Florida Stallion series, and his overall Brisnet figures (pace and speed) are on a par with Simplification. The questions are 1) the 4-month+ layoff and 2) his trainer’s record at the meet (1 for 32).
It seems like the consistency shown by a handful of horses from the 2020 BC Juvenile is going to be reiterated with some of the 2021 BC Juvenile contestants.
We were delighted to watch the top five of 2020 BC Juvenile keeping their competitive level during most of 2021. Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Keepmeinmind, Jackie’s Warrior and Rombauer closed last year as top performers. Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior will likely be named Champions; Rombauer was a comfortable winner of the Preakness, Hot Rod Charlie secured the Vox Populi award after a valiant campaign that included a 3rd in the Derby, a 2nd in the Belmont and taking the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby. Hot Rod Charlie will be one of the favorites to take the Dubai World Cup in March.
And Keepmeinmind was always in the mix in Grade I and Grade II company.
The five Juveniles who finished behind Corniche in the last BC Juvenile (Pappacap, Giant Game, Commandperformance, Oviatt Class and Pinehurst) will likely be horses of note this year.
Pappacap will be striving to get the 50 points in the Risen Star Stakes on February 19th .
Commandperformance started serious training today and Pinehurst will be pointing to the next Stakes in California.
Oviatt Class has not worked since his 3rd in the Sham.
Giant Game will be the 7/2 second favorite the Holy Bull this Saturday … hope he runs as brilliantly as he seems in his workouts…! The transition from 2 to the a 3-year-old campaign is always a question.
Nelson, is this damning with faint praise? Lol. The 2020 BC Juveniles 6 – 2021 BC Juveniles 0. Lol.
It will end 6-3
Well, Hot Rod Charlie has a reputation for ‘own goals’ but 3, no, I don’t think so. 6 – 1, possibly. Ha ha
HOLY BULL STAKES
1 Galt 10/1
2 Mo Donegal 3/1
3 Eloquist 20/1
4 Simplification 4/1
5 Cajun’s Magic 10/1
6 Tiz the Bomb 5/1
7 Spin Wheel 20/1
8 White Abarrio 6/1
9 Giant Game 7/2
Thanks EddieF from the prompt information…!
You’re welcome! Looks very competitive. No clear favorite.
I like Simplification !
A wise choice Nelson, I like Simplification as well. Hopefully, he wins impressively and moves on to the FOY.
I like Gault for home run.
Songbird’s half brother is a legitimate long-shot threat.
Full brother
Right! At least I got it right when I mentioned him a couple of days ago.
Agree Eddie.
I’d love to see a Simplification/White Abarrio exacta, and then move on to the KD with that same exacta.
A White Abarrio/Simplification in the Derby would pay me $9,099.00. A Simplfication/White Abarrio finish would pay me $7,138.00.
In Derby Futures Pool 2, in boxed Simplification with the entire field.
A pipe dream? Without question.
Good news …!
As projected by Steve, today Commandperformance had his first workout of the year at Palm Beach Downs. The gray went 3 furlongs in 37.34 …
Better news, the Withers Stakes looks like an interesting race and the weather might be ok as well.
Hope so… I was just watching the videos of Early Voting and Gilded Age wins…
They look like serious runners…!
I am waiting for the morning lines to concoct a couple of daring bets there…
I really liked what I saw of Early Voting. He was a handful going to post right up to balking for a moment at the gate. But he ran like he’d been there before! Beautiful colt with fluid action.
Well, if nothing else, the race should sort out the pretenders. Hopefully, a handful put in good performances as well.
A couple of very cute baby photos of Slow Down Andy can be seen at the KD website: “Tales from the Crib: Slow Down Andy.” He’s my current #2 behind Smile Happy.
Exactly one hundred years ago, Morvich became the first California-bred horse to win the Kentucky Derby. Slow Down Andy…bred in California. Just sayin’…
Since I started following Horse Racing in 1972 Cal breds have only won the roses the one time…but 1980 they ran two/three, and Rumbo was flying late, vs Genuine Risk, Jacklin Klugman third, after winning the Derby Trial …..Best Pal ran a good 2nd, and Free House ran 3rd…Flying Paster, Snow Chief, General Challenge ran out….there was a 45-1 shot that I bet across the board, that finished 4th, trained by My Young Kwan, pardon the spelling….Chrome was a real Cal bred from the sticks, as was Free House. By Smokester…but Slow Down Eddie is by Nyquist, out of a Square Eddie mare, a real homebred! Strong bloodlines, for a Cal bred…sire stands in Kentucky….sort of like those NY breds by Uncle Mo!
That’s a nice group of Cal-breds. It’s too bad there haven’t been more champions and Derby winners bred outside of Kentucky. I think it would be good for the industry as a whole.
That 4th in the Derby was Video Ranger who was claimed by Myung Kwon Cho from Lukas. He ran 2nd in the Sant Anita Derby to 1 of the more popular horses to race at SA, Mister Frisky.
The M/L odds on the two promising Pletcher colts that were first out winners have been posted for their upcoming one mile 75K AOC race on Friday 2-4. American Icon opened at 7/5 and Iron Works opened at 7/2. Could we see one of these two, or both, in the FOY? We’ll see. From my perspective, American Icon appears to be the better of the two.
Just saw the cutest meme on FB. Today is Groundhog Day. General Beauregard Lee (our honorary groundhog here in Georgia) did not see his shadow, so we have 6 weeks to spring.
The meme was of a horse seeing his shadow which meant 13 weeks to the Kentucky Derby!!!
Time to get these colts cracking and on the track trainers….Derby Day will be here before you know it!!!
The General and Phil both called it the same
Mr. Haskin, what’s your take regarding Gault?
How about In Dreams？I think this Frosted colt is good.
There is nothing to say about him until I find out where Brad Cox is running him. His last 2 races last year were at 5 1/2 and 6 furlongs and hes had 4 sprint races. So if Cox thinks hes a Derby horse he’s been waiting a long time for him to show it.
In Dreams is lining up in the Swale Stakes, Race 5 Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Should be a good honest race.
Hi Steve, if you were giving out awards to the horses in your rankings, who would you give the “toughest” award to? Reflecting back on your comments from previous years, they always seem to do well in the derby. Country House and Medina Spirit are two that immediately come to mind.
Its still kinda early to tell. They havent run enough. I thought Mo Donegal and Zandon showed lot of toughness in the Remsen
Yeah I think I broke through the gate on that one. Thanks.
Great list as always. Smile Happy in #1 makes sense. Adding Newgrange makes sense as well
although how that situation with Baffert and Churchill turns out remains to be seen. Looking forward
to seeing Tiz the Bomb run. Forbidden Kingdom, an American Pharoah horse, was really impressive.
Also like Rattle N’Roll.
I only included them because I’m confident they will run in the Derby.
I was very disappointed to hear My Prankster doesn’t fit the profile of a two-turn horse (per Todd Pletcher). He will restrict My Prankster to 6 furlong and no more than 1 mile races. By Into Mischief, out of a Flower Alley mare, there appears to be plenty of class and stamina influence on both sides of his pedigree, but as they say, horses don’t always run to their pedigree.
Oh well I’m still alive with futures bets on Emmanuel (75-1), RNR (34-1) and Simplification (43-1). In addition, I’ve got Joe at 200-1, but I’m hearing the KD is probably not in his plans. I’ve got Forced Ranking at 200-1, but he’s had no works since his maiden win back in October. I’m not sure what has happened to this Chad Brown colt. He must have developed some major issues since that win. I’m looking forward to this weekend’s Holy Bull, and a big effort from Simplification.
I marvel at your ability to provide current & updated information each week on these young 3 year olds. Especially since there is not a lot of racing activity currently.
Forgive me if you have answered this question before but how much credence do you put into the workouts at this early juncture.
Excellent list, glad you included Baffert.
Thanks Deacon. I put a lot of credence in works because its basically the only activity I got. My top 3 horses havent seen a starting gate in months so I’m just groping in the dark.
According to McGee at DRF, High Oak is out of the Swale Stakes with a fever; Classic Causeway, Howling Time, and God of Love to the Sam F. Davis.
As expected this early, ten out of the ranked horses have not run in January.
Out of curiosity I asked myself how a head start could affect their chances in the Derby? Does a 3-year-old debut in January help?
In trying to answer these questions I reviewed the campaign of the last 32 Derby winners and found that exactly half of them had run in January. Out of those 16 January starters ten (10) won that sophomore debut and eleven (11) ran in January Stakes. You may want to exclude Authentic from this exercise as his Derby win was in September (pandemic disruption).
Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos and Always Dreaming broke their Maiden in January.
The 3-year-old Stakes historically held in January (for the sampled horses) were the Preview (Go for Gin 1st ), Santa Catalina (Charismatic 5th), Golden Gate Derby (Real Quiet 8th), LeComte (War Emblem 5th), HolyBull (Funny Cide 5th), Count Fleet Stakes (Smarty Jones 1st), Tropical Derby (Unbridled 5th and Barbaro 1st), California Cup Derby (California Chrome 1st), Sham Stakes(Authentic 1st , Medina Spirit 2nd ) and the Robert B. Lewis (Medina Spirit 1st).
The San Vicente Stakes won by Nyquist in his 3-year-old debut was held on February 15 …
A notable observation is that only five of the last 32 Derby winners had won Stakes the first month of their sophomore year. This figure offers clues about the proper performance cycles patterns for Derby hopefuls. For many of us it is just stating the obvious; your horse should show a steady upturn to avoid detrimental early peaking in form.
History suggests that there is no definitive advantage in making 3-year-old debut for Derby prospects in January. That is a fair answer to the aforementioned questions.
So, in conclusion, it is better to take a closer look at the progression in form of particular horses as per the road maps set out by their trainers.
That is why Steve’s weekly thorough updates are so useful in trying to decipher the performance rating of all relevant Derby prospects … we will have 13 more weeks to crack the 2022 Derby puzzle…!
Excellent info on early races for 3-year-olds, Nelson. If you limit the review to the 21st century, there’s a decided trend that’s related to peaking too soon. Only Medina Spirit of all the May Derby winners won a major prep in January (i.e., before points system, a traditional stakes prep; afterward, a points race). MS’s win was in the RB Lewis on January 30. I didn’t consider the Count Fleet, Cal Cup, or TP Derby as traditional preps. Major prep wins in February are more frequent (Orb, I’ll Have Another, Barbaro), but nothing close to a majority. March and April — that’s when winning big preps counts the most! (If I’m mistaken about any of this, will you let me know? 😉 )
Thanks for the reply Eddie…!
Yes … the California Cup Derby exclusive for Cal bred horses is not your typical Derby prep and the Tropical Park Derby is for turf runners.
The Count Fleet was discontinued in 2013, it was a prep for the Withers Stakes and the Gotham Stakes.
The Santa Catalina was replaced by the Robert Lewis.
And yes, February, March and April are traditionally the months when “the hoof meet the dirt”.
My point is about going backwards from the Derby to see how the winners did in January just to project based on what has happened this month… i.e. is Newgrange really ahead because he did win two Stakes in January?… Maybe … Maybe not… from 32 years of history it is more like a toss of a coin.
No Derby winners has done that since 1990… then again, it was the first time the Southwest Stakes was run in January…
The complementing analysis is determining how many horses who were ready to run in January according to their trainers did so in Stakes or normal races and register how they progressed to be in the Derby… but it is always easy to focus on the winners rather than the losers…
As I said, the finding is immaterial for handicapping purposes and nothing substitute a close scrutiny of the top horses month by month until D day.
Well, there’s following the 3yos on the Derby trail and there’s handicapping the Derby after the PP draw. I consider them separate endeavors. How horses progress is almost always evident in their late March/early April races.
It’s early yet, but…..after such a strong crop this one looks lite!
I tend to agree. Hopefully, a classy Belmont Stakes runner may appear, too late for the Derby but spot on for the Travers Stakes. Mind you, there is a handful of very classy sprinters in this crop.
In your view, what makes a crop strong? And when is the best time to evaluate the crop?
Best time to evaluate a crop is end of year …but I like to talk horses, for me it’s never too early!
A strong crop like last year has several who in other years would be hands down Eclipse winners….
Okay. That’s reasonable. But how do you evaluate the strength of the crop? I wouldn’t even know where to start. What if one or two horses dominate the big races? What if the big races are equally shared among a number of horses? Do speed figures factor into the evaluation?
Well…the bigger three year old races were won by the first four in the Derby…and they stayed good all year…even Midnight Bourbon might have been a champion in another year, and he did not even win a race after Feb…ad in Life Is Good and Flightline, I think that’s a pretty good crop! I have no idea about this year’s three year olds, but I still like to talk about them!
It does make for interesting conversation!
Breaking Brisnet news: Newgrange went from a 98 in the Sham to a 94 in the Southwest. Other top figs from Saturday at Oaklawn were Secret Oath’s 91 and Ethereal Road’s 89. Over at TBD, Emmanuel earned a 96 after his 88 one-turn maiden win at GP. Happy Boy Rocket got an 87 in his maiden win at GP. Forbidden Kingdom earned a 95 in his 7f win at SA, up from an 88 in the Bob Hope.
Hi Eddie:
Glad you looked up those Beyers so I don’t have to! There’s a typo about Newgrange, though — he got an 88 in the Sham, so improved to 94 in the Southwest. I was impressed by Ethereal Road’s big last to first run, but didn’t expect such a big number. Glad he got it — he sure earned it.
Oops — apologies, Eddie, for misreading BEYERS for BRISNET. It’s so bright down here in Jamaica can’t see my screen.
To fill in, Newgrange’s BEYERS went from 88 in the Sham to to 89 in the Southwest.
Secret Oath = 88 Beyer
Emmanuel got an 89 for his win at Tampa Bay, and Ethereal Road got a 79.
That’s OK, Ms B. You may not be having piña coladas, but I sense you’ve had a few hits of the more popular rum punch!
An appalling number compared to my regular consumption. I immediately forgot the name of the best drink I had; some variation on the dirty banana.
Keep up the good work!
There is one I had not followed at all with the best Brisnet Speed Figure last weekend…
The Pennsylvania bred Witty got 97 in easily winning the 7F of the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Laurel Park.
The son of Great Notion (Elusive Quality) looks like a decent one … I am including him in my Virtual Stable until he prove himself against some top players…
His high knee action makes him look like a potential turf specialist though…!
Steve, I think your decision to add in the Baffert colts is the way to go. The puzzle will sort itself out in time for the first Saturday in May, 2022. I can’t imagine too many owners giving up a Derby chance if they feel their horse has a serious chance of winning. It’s a ‘big boys’ game. Perhaps the most anxious crowd will be the jockey’s agents, trying to sort out certainty.
Let’s hope Mother Nature is gentle with the racing this weekend. No snow, no rain, just cool sunshine so we can seriously start adjudicating on these 3 year old colts. I like quite a few but none to put your house on “to win.” Last year, Essential Quality was either going to win or be unlucky not to win. This year, it’s up for grabs. No one is a standout. However, it does make for more fun and games.
Thanks again, Steve, for your marvelous dedication to the Derby Rankings. You are the source!!
Agree! Handicap the HORSES.
Yes Matthew, handicapping the horses makes the enjoyment and purpose of Steve’s weekly column.
Yes, Davids, it will be sorted out in time. And that is precisely why I believe it’s unnecessary at this point to evaluate ineligible horses. Horses trained by Baffert are ineligible to earn Derby points and ineligible to enter the Derby. When (AND IF) they change hands, that’s when I will be looking closely at their records and their chances in the Derby.
I take your point. However, Steve is Ranking all the horses on their ability to win a race – injury, etc may occur at any time. It defeats the purpose by not ranking the Baffert horses, then adding several horses three weeks prior to the running. N’est-ce pas le cas?
First, what the heck happened in your last sentence? You made so many typos it looks like a foreign language.
Anyway, I have no argument against Steve including the Baffert horses. My comment was about my own preference at this time. But we’ll know the situation with those horses well before “three weeks prior” to the Derby.
Lol re:bad spelling. Oui, chacun a sa propre préférence.
Oh, now I get it. That IS another language. I know how to say “Do you speak English?” in at least a dozen languages.
Over the years, I’ve lost fluent Dutch, basic Spanish/German, while holding on to ‘tourist’ French. Once on a bridge in Budapest, exchanging US dollars for forints, a friend tried out his ‘family’ magyar nyelv. The exchange guy, in perfect English, proclaimed “Stop embarrassing yourself and insulting me… A lesson learnt. Ha ha
Steve Haskin-
Thanks for the current weather update in New York. If the weather improves, hope the Wither Stakes is run February 5, as scheduled.
I live in L.A. where many residents, myself included, complain when the temperature drops below 60 degrees. We are spoiled with balmy weather most of the year and have absolutely no clue what real cold is like. I credit New Yorkers and New Jerseyites who cope with frigid termperatures in the winter months.
I have a Kentucky Derby prediction. The young stallion, Violence, age 12, will sire a Kentucky Derby winner before his more high-profile father, Medaglia d’Oro, age 23.
I don’t have any stats to back up my comments, but it seems like Violence offspring are winning more than a fair share of important races at major tracks. He just needs mares with stamina DNA. Think Hill ‘N’ Dale have a great prospect.
Thanks for the Derby Rankings Week 3. Hope the weather warms up on the East Coast.
7.5 Furlongs
I’m org. from Fl. so also spoiled. Wouldn’t be able-dealing w/ long winters,for sure!
Lucky to live in Florida and SoCal climate.
Now I live elsewhere. Winters aren’t bad,sometimes zero snow for entire winter.
It’s beautiful but today we have the Santa Ana Winds. ..they clean up the air but….I guess everywhere has SOME kind of weather!
I’ve spent much time in CA. Used to visit The Tin Man many times at owner’s daughter ranch.
I couldnt live anywhere that didnt have four seasons. Having summer all year would drive me crazy. I need spring flowers blooming, fall colors, crisp cool weather, wearing my winter coat, snow, hope for a white Christmas. In fact, of the four I can do without summer and disgusting humidity. At least you dont get that
With you there, Steve. Also we’re close to the big New York tracks, and easy drives to Maryland and PA. For those who actually get off the sofa to watch a horse race (talking about myself there).
Having all 4 seasons is the one thing I miss about living in Georgia as compared to the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia.
We have three seasons here in GA, spring, summer and fall. The summers are miserable (heat and humidity). Rarely get snow here and such a treat when we do. Usually it is ice water rain that will chill you to the bone and my horses shiver in it even if they are under their shelters. I do not think I could live in California or Florida.
California weather is unbelievably nice all year long. Highly recommend! Even when it gets Hot during the day, it starts cooling off around 4pm with a nice ocean wind. Winters are incredible, I can go skiing or beaching on some days, and don’t have to shelve snow. Low humidity, and hardly any bugs! I travel a lot for work, and do not enjoy the winter’s on the east coast.
Have you ever watched the classic English comedy, “Fawlty Towers”? The whole series 1&2 are hilarious but you’ll get are real kick out of “Waldorf Salad.” There is a comparison between English weather and California weather.
“Oh…RobBINS!” In top 10 of greatest TV comedies. No….Correction: Top 5.
“So, it’s one scotch, and you each need a screwdriver” too funny.
“I kno-ow…I kno-ow!…Oh, I kno-ow!”
Lol. Cigarette in hand, chocolate truffle in the other. Puff, “I know”, chew on chocolate, eat center, disregard the rest, “Oh, I KNOW…puff…pick up, chocolate…lol…while in bed!!
Only time I ever smoke is at casinos.
For good reason, no doubt. Ha ha
I guess a lot of it has to do with where we born and raised and lived most of our lives.
Used to love riding my horses in the snow. Belonged to a couple of rustic mountain camping mountain trail riding clubs and one of them rode year round regardless of the weather, sleet and snow included. The other club went to Mt Rogers, the highest peak in Virginia twice a year (spring and fall). Rhododendrons and Mountain Laurel blooming in the spring and in the Fall, the glorious color of the mountains with their fall foliage on. Also there is a wild pony herd that lives up there. So neat to ride on a mountain top with wild ponies.
When I was a little girl we used to sleigh ride down the bill hill next to our house and I would ride my pony back up the hill with several sleds in tow.
However, I do love the beach as well, especially the beaches and islands off Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.
When we were living in my hometown we would vacation at the beach. When we moved to Tidewater (Virginia) we vacationed in the mountains.
Want to add that my husband spent several weeks in California working for his company (in Gilroy). On weekends the group would go up the Pacific Coastal highway and to the wine country. He loved that part of California.
We vacationed in Florida one time (Disney World). Miserable heat. Too swampy for me. LOL. Our daughter got into sand fleas and broke out in a rash. It was so miserable that we left after one night and headed up the coast.
Could not find a motel anywhere…spring break. Finally saw a vacancy at a Econo Lodge around 3 in the morning. Scary experience when I went in to pay for a room, couple of guys try to kidnap me. My husband was in law enforcement at the time and had his service revolver with him and he had to run in and rescue me. That was before cell phones so we just sped out of the parking lot and back up the interstate. Finally got a room in Santee, South Carolina just as the sun was coming up.
Climate change has totally altered Melbourne’s (Australia) weather. Decades ago there was a distinct 4 season pattern. Now there are 2 seasons. Now, Winters lead into Summer which lead into Winter which lead into Summer…
Autumn was just gorgeous, totally still, with increasing crispness that lead into Winter. Gone completely, Summer snaps into Winter. Summer used to be dry now you are debilitated but horrible humidity- New York style. This January the temperature on average was 4c hotter than usual and the humidity was unbearable. Trying to grow Spring bulbs is a waste of time the bulb will flower then be ruined by hot weather the next day.
The climate here in the Southeast is actually trending the opposite way. Our summers have been cooler than average and the winters colder. Some climatologists are predicting that we are about to enter another mini Ice Age like the one that began about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, all of which were separated by intervals of slight warming.
“When colonizers settled at Jamestown, historians agree it was one of the coldest time periods in the last 1000 years. Drought was also a huge problem in North America during the Little Ice Age, and the settlers arrived in Roanoke during the largest drought of the past 800 years. Tree ring studies done by the University of Arkansas discovered that many colonists arrived at the beginning of a seven-year drought. The times of drought also decreased the Native American populations and led to conflict because of food scarcity. English colonists at Roanoke forced Native Americans of Ossomocomuck to share their depleted supplies with them. That led to warfare between the two groups, and Native American cities were destroyed. That cycle would repeat itself many times at Jamestown. The combination of fighting and cold weather led to the spread of diseases as well. The colder weather brought on by the Little Ice Age helped the parasites brought by Europeans in mosquitoes develop faster. That in turn led to many deaths among Native American populations from malaria”.
If we are entering another mini Ice Age by 2030 as some scientists have predicted, heaven help us considering all of our other problems. People think we have food shortages now, that is small stuff compared to the food shortages we will have in the future.
Oh boy! I’ve always wanted to be in a Mad Max movie!!
LOL, Eddie. Hang in there, you might get you wish. Not sure I will be around to see it, in ways, hope I am not.
Hey, not to worry. My neighbor says that scientists don’t know anything. He’s an accountant, but he sounds very convincing.
LOL, not sure I would have much confidence in what a bean counter has to say about climate change. Oops, hope that is not your profession.
Perhaps, we are fortunate to be living now before our sun turns into a Red Giant, engulfing everything in site.
5 billion years? Earth will probably be invaded by aliens from other planets (solar systems) or hit by a giant asteroid or the human species will destroy it. At any rate, we will probably run out of potable water first (predicted to be around 2050).
Give or take a few million years. Lol. Apparently, all that will be left of the human race will be our underground sewer systems. The invading aliens will come to the conclusion that it’s not worth having…it’s only full of sh1t. Lol.
Probably (laughed out loud when I read this).
Davids, I live in Tidewater Virginia for a number of years and the summers are very hot and humid.
The Colonial Williamsburg Foundation would start the spring bulbs like daffodils and tulips etc in clay pots in a a green house and just as they started to bloom they put the potted plants out in the gardens in the dirt. It looked like the plants were growing out of the ground. Most of the pots were put out in semi-shady areas and mulched well and of course watered. When the blooms died back, the pots were taken up and put back in the green house to go dormant for next year. Just an idea of a way you can have some spring bulbs. It gets extremely hot here, even in May. It is not a bulb but I have found that Impatience do very well here during the summer. They like the shade and do not mind the heat. I plant pansies in the fall and they are very tolerant of cold weather and usually live and bloom all winter into early May. Something else you can try are irises. They do well here, bloom early and tolerate the winters. There are also a number of blooming cactus plants that of course tolerate the heat.
Yes Lynda, thank you for the good information and refrigerating the bulbs in a crisper helps as well. I was fortunate enough to spend a good deal of my childhood living in the Netherlands. The Dutch are experts on bulb culture.
The problem here is endeavoring to establish the bulbs in a garden bed setting. Basically, trying to replicate childhood memories. Crocus and tulips flopped but the hyacinths were ok. Irises tend to be flattened here by the wind but I’ll give them a go. Ranunculus and Anemone are better bought anyway.
You’re probably right though, just plant small pots in the garden saves time and heartbreak. Melbourne’s winter is too mild really but I’m one of those people who won’t be defeated easily. It’s a challenge.
I just read that Bill Mott expects to enter maiden winner Galt in the Holy Bull Stakes. In case anyone is unfamiliar with Galt, he’s a full brother to two-time Eclipse champion Songbird. On December 26 at Gulfstream, he broke beautifully from post 1 in an 8.5f race, stalked a slow pace while staying inside, and swung out wide entering the stretch. He won by 3 lengths, looking like he had a lot left.
By the way, two of the last three runnings of the Holy Bull have been won by last-out maiden winners.
Good info Eddie! For me, rooting for Bill and Mandella.
Thanks, Mike.
WHO is Galt? (hehe)
(Matthew shrugged..)
Who is on first.
“WHO is John Galt”?…from “Atlas Shrugged”/…..
LOL. Not too familiar with Rand. May have read The Fountainhead in college. Apparently, it had little effect on my intellectual development. 😉
I sure enjoy reading your Derby Rankings posts. Have you heard anything on Double Thunder, trained by Pletcher, who was 2nd to Rattle N Roll in the Breeders Futurity then off the board in the BCJ? I see that he has no workout activity since
Steve, I really enjoy reading your magnificent posts. Your information gets me dreaming…I have not commented in a while but do appreciate what you do. I’ve said that previously, but wanted you to know that again. I am a Baffert fan, he is a legend in the sport. He is polarizing to many but I appreciate your balanced view on him in your posts. I wonder if the KD will be just another G1 race without Baffert best horses running. IF they don’t run the next two years, the quality of the fields will be delegitimized. Have you heard what owner will do? Will they be content winning the prep races, and go straight to the Preakness and Belmont? The NYRA is another farce of a case against him (I am embarrassed for the sport on what the NYRA did to it), but that is another day and debate. End of the day Baffert should be able to run again in NY.
Yes Jeff the NYRA is an embarrassment and a disgrace to horseracing. The recent hearing for Baffert was just a kangaroo court….the court had a panel….the panel was made up of NYRA members whom made it clear that they do not want Baffert winning in NY….ala honestll….and the NYRA appointed their own pick judge to listen to Baffert….then have the right to just ignore everything the judge has to say and issue whatever that want.
The judge that just heard Baffert’s defense has been defanged…he has no sway…..the NYRA possibly has its made up sadly.
Totally agree
Since the NYRA is going to do what it’s going to do, what will be the next recourse against their action, besides the normal civil suit? Will it go to the Supreme Court?
Don’t know but I’ve heard that lawsuits maybe coming from Baffert….however, at this point the legal fees for both sides are probably now in the hundreds of thousands and the financial records of the NYRA the past couple of decades including big losses in some years has to be the principal concern now.
I think NYRA pushed too many chips into the pot, they weren’t expecting their challenge to be met, and now they find themselves in a spot….but New York has always had that “Eastern Bias” to their reputation….I remember how angry Jerry Moss was, when Saratoga told him Zenyatta would get no preferential treatment, ove stall space—a weird thing to say! Charles Cella welcomed Big Z with open arms…..
Of course none of this three-ring circus would have occurred if the trainer didn’t have multiple drug/medication violations in high profile races, including the highest profile race in North America.
EddieF. sadly there are people be they fans, handicappers, owners, trainers, jockeys or in some manner or fashion are in either the sport of horse racing or the horse racing industry who choose not to accept the fact that the drugging and doping of horses will not be tolerated by the general public.
It does not matter which side of the Baffert/CD/NYRA fiasco that one is on, the sudden death of Medina Spirit coming on the heels of the failed drug test at the Derby has served to only magnify the atrocity of doping horses in the public’s perception.
Additionally, there are diehards who are convinced that the general public cannot shut down horse racing in the United States. I repeat, no one need look further than what happened to Greyhound racing in Florida.
Baffert, as the result of his nearly 30 years of successes and being the most prolific trainer in the United States for dirt tracks, puts him in the hot seat every time there is a drug/medication violation. Medina Spirit, sadly, has become the poster child for the horse racing wrongs when it comes to drugs and doping.
From a personal stance, I do not have any feelings one way or the other about Baffert; meaning I am not jealous of him or his accomplishments. My only personal opinion about him is that he is very arrogant and that arrogance was on display in a video I watched of him and Mike Smith celebrating the victory of Arrogate in the Breeders Cup over California Chrome. He and Smith were snickering, making fun of Victor and gloating over the fact that Victor played right into their hands by allowing him (Victor) to think he had enough of a lead in the race that Smith and Arrogate could not catch him.
The drugs ad the doping are killing the horses and the sport. Every effort that is made to clean up the sport fails out of the start gate including the latest effort, HISA and USADA. The day is fast approaching when the bell will toll one last time for the sport and the industry. Like my Mom used to say, “If you cannot listen, you will feel”.
I remember that with Jerry Moss….and here’s the kicker…Jerry Moss was born in Brooklyn, NY….and even went to Brooklyn College. You’d think he might have been given a little better treatment from people in his home state and where grew up in….
I’ve never been to Saratoga, I do not know how easy it is to ship 3000 miles—is there an additional long van ride?
Thank you Jeff. I Hope you continue to comment.
He hasnt worked since the Breeders’ Cup and considering the way he ran I would guess he got hurt
What about Charlatan?…He has the highest Beyer Speed of any of the three year olds…
And he he flamed out early.
Steve, I wonder if you share this view of Doppelganger bound to greatly improve next time out.
In the San Vicente (only his second start) despite running widest of all and very greenly he was closing faster than the others with a strong gallop out.
No one should be surprised to see another Into Mischief navigating the grades again…!
January is over and, as expected, there were few changes in the ranking of week 3 with respect to the initial one.
The top 3 are solid so far with Giant Game climbing (to 4th from 7th ) thanks to his dazzling workouts at Gulfstream. The most notable relegation was Pappacap who fell from 4th to 12th … in 24 days the Risen Star Stakes could mean vindication or eradication for the son of Gun Runner… we’ll see.
Out of the ranking ( for convincing reasons I must add) are God of Love, Chasing Time, Oviatt Class, Trafalgar and Major General. Newgrange, Messier and Emmanuel are credible additions.
The title of Mr. January goes to Newgrange by virtue of his two Stakes wins this month. But Forbidden Kingdom was impressive in the San Vicente against three high-quality members of Baffert’s troop. The son of American Pharoah was even faster than the superfast 4-year-old Essential Wager the winner of the Palos Verdes Stakes just 2 hours later.
In his previous race, the Bob Hope Stakes, Forbidden Kingdom not only stumbled at the start but was ranked through the first quarter. This infight helped Messier win that Grade III Stakes back in November.
Forbidden Kingdom was more relaxed and controllable this time; but Mandella has the impossible task of making a horse who runs two furlongs in 21 seconds and 43 seconds for 4 furlongs endure 9 and even 10 furlongs.
Anyways, as Steve said, they never know until they try. Not sure if it is comparable (pedigree wise), but the Hall of Fame Trainer did make a very fast horse named Wild Rush win the 1 1/8-mile-Illinois Derby and the Ohio Derby at 1 3/16 mile both in track record time.
It was three years ago when Mandella saw his best hope to win the Derby falling apart; it was heartbreaking finding an entrapped epiglottis troubling Omaha Beach just days before the big race.
Mandella with another Derby contender would be a nice storyline to follow this year… no matter how short it might last…!
Nelson:
I too like Forbidden Kingdom. He’s an American Pharoah, so maybe he can carry his blazing speed over a distance, no matter what his damside looks like. I really like his free-running action (enough to have him #4 on my list).
Nice analysis btw!
Thanks Ms Blacktype…
You are right about his great flowing action … the way he powered through the finish line was as impressive as his exceptional speed.
Forbidden Kingdom is an exciting prospect indeed…!
Hi, Nelson. I often wonder how different the outcome of the ’19 Derby would have been if Omaha Beach had been healthy and in the gate. My guess is that he, not the confirmed stalkers Long Range Toddy and Bodexpress, would have battled MaxSec in the early stages. Perhaps there would not have been any serious interference in the stretch, and with a faster early pace a stalker or closer may have passed by both OB and MS. Who knows?!?! It was interesting to follow OB’s return to the races in sprints and the BC Mile. Why no routes?
Steve, your referencing Always Dreaming’s run-up to his 2017 Derby victory (#11 Emmanuel) gives me the chance to finally offer up a long overdue “Thank you.” Despite what appeared to be only a so-so front-running win in a slowly run optional claiming tuneup for the Florida Derby, you maintained very strong confidence in the Pletcher trainee’s ability. That confidence was enough for me. So it was in late March when I walked into a Las Vegas racebook and plunked down decent-sized wagers on three colts, one of them being Always Dreaming – at a still juicy 75/1. (The other two were foreign-based: Japan’s Epicharis and Godolphin’s Thunder Snow, both at 125/1). So, again, sorry it took so long to give credit to the person most responsible for my windfall. Thank you, Steve!!!
I am SO happy to hear that and thank you for remembering how much I loved him winning that allowance race in slow time. It was one of my favorite Derby Dozen years. I love when a fast horse wins in slow time. He was so visually impressive, just like Emmanuel. He is a very underrated horse and if it wasnt for his ulcer problems he could have been very special. So where’s my commission? Lol
What? You never got it? That darn Postal Service must have lost it! Lol
Well played
Good read Mr. Haskin! Hoping Forbidden Kingdom can go longer.
As long as he doesnt get as rank as he was in the Bob Hope Stakes
Would like to see Mandella with a runner for Derby.
That would be so great.
Yeah for sure.
Ben Diesel fits the typical Dallas Stewart mold having a well bred horse scraping together points each prep, then securing at gate at 50-1.
I think Ben isn’t fast enough–nice colt but has been tiring in the lane.
Two more promising 3 yr. olds in the Todd Pletcher barn will be facing each other in a 1 mile, 75K AOC, at GP on Friday, Feb. 4th. American Icon, by Gun Runner, out of a Sky Mesa mare, won his debut race, going 7 furlongs in 1:23.26, drawing off by 8 1/2 lengths, with Luis Saez in the irons. Pletcher’s other colt in the race, Iron Works, won at first asking, going 6 furlongs, in 1:09.76, drawing off by 4 lengths. By Distorted Humor, out of an Indian Charlie mare, Iron Works sold for 550K at auction, and American Icon sold for 400K, so one would think a lot is expected from both of these Pletcher colts. The morning line odds have yet to be posted, but I suspect American Icon will be the favorite, and Iron Works as the 2nd favorite.
Before all is said and done, Pletcher could have several horses on the Derby trail that could make the KD starting gate.
Keeping an eye on both horses. Good way to lead into the big weekend. Pletcher feasts on these Fla. maiden and allowance races. Unless Steal Sunshine is the real deal I would imagine they’ll finish 1-2
Thanks for the reply Steve
Yes indeed, that’s the way I see it, with Steal Sunshine the main competition against the two Pletcher horses.
The reason I like American Icon over Iron Works, is the way he was ridden out in his maiden win with little effort on his part and his last 3 works have been bullets.
Two more reasons to prefer American Icon: 1) 3rd-place finisher Happy Boy Rocket came back to break his maiden, and 2) he’s stretching out one furlong compared to Iron Works stretching out two furlongs. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Iron Works as post-time favorite considering he’s co-owned by the Myracehorse group.
The reason I like him is being he’s inbred to Quiet American and also has Fappiano somewhere else in his pedigree it means he has Dr. Fager in his pedigree 5 times. Thatts good enough for me
But it will be March before he gets to go two turns.
In the event American Icon should win that 9th race on Friday, the FOY on Mar. 5th, could be where Pletcher will point him next. We’ll see.
Yes, Steve, I was going to have a good look at Steal Sunshine as well. Improving type, we’ll see.
Newgrange was impressive in the Southwest Stakes and Forbidden Kingdom was formidable, but McLaren Vale’s third-place effort was valiant as he appeared to be closing on the leaders at the finish. I will keep my eyes on him as he stretches out to classic distances.
So, if the Baffert horses continue on the Derby path but get reassigned to another trainer before the big race:
1. Do they get back the points they missed while being under Baffert’s tutelage?
2. When is too late to transfer and will Churchill still ban the horse because it was obvious they just changed to get into the Derby?
3. Will any of those horses revert back to Bob’s care after the Derby?
They dont get the points back because theyve already been given to the runnerup. They will transfer before the 50 point races. reverting back is up to the owner.
Steve, according to CD’s announced rules, the points that would have been earned are “vacated.” I questioned that rule when it was originally announced. It didn’t seem fair to the horses/connections that were not ineligible. In other words, it would be more reasonable to have awarded, for example, the 10 points in the Lecomte to Barber Road, rather than just the 4 points for second place.
Yes, I was wrong about that. I thought I had read somewhere that a runner-up was awarded top points.
I read the same Steve.
Right now of these top ranked horses which ones have the winning running style of the points era derby chaps or at least the ones that crossed the line first?
Not sure what you mean by points era Derby chaps. Right now the running style favors horses with speed unlike in the past.
Hi Steve
Simplification is listed as a “probable”, in the Holy Bull this coming Saturday. Evidently Tami Bobo changed her mind about waiting for the Florida Derby. A smart move on her part, IMO.
Todd Pletcher’s colt, My Prankster is entered in the 7 furlong Swale which offers no Derby points, but could be a set up for the FOY. Just out of curiosity, do you have any thoughts on My Prankster?
BTW, thanks for all your thoughts on Derby Rankings: Week 3, an excellent analysis on your top 16.
I texted her two days ago about it and she never got back to me. Her trainer must have talked her out of such nonsense. I surely will not be contacting her in the future.
So much fun to read this on a beach in Jamaica, mon! I read this week’s list with extra relish, since I felt I had to cut two from my personal list, despite adding Forbidden Kingdom. Granted I was a little wasted when I did it last night after a very long day getting here. Good to know Jack Christopher is off the Derby trail—plus news about some others I hadn’t heard of in Knocking on the Door. Loved seeing the comparison between Brisnet and Breyer figures too — sometimes they’re very different.
Great job, Steve with your assessment at a tricky point in the trail.
Thanks and not too many pina coladas. Enjoy your vacation and stay out of Kingston.
Staying well inside the tourist corridor! Luckily I’m not a fan of pina coladas. Sorry I left the entire northeast under two feet of snow when I left.
I heard one of Slow Down Andy’s owners express shock that the horse was beaten in start #2….he said that the horse was the real deal, and I did not listen to him, before the Los Al Futurity….I’ve watched that race many times, it LOOKS like Messier fired his shot—and Prat offered no excuse—Andy certainly is a rubber-necker! I also like Zandon, and was surprised to hear Chad having reservations, concerning his owners wishes to go to Louisiana—not that he is against going, but that he SAID it…..Doug didn’t want to go in the Los Al race, but he didn’t say it until after the horse won, and I doubt he would have said it if he had lost.
I just saw Andy is owned by Reddam Racing LLC…not sure WHO that guy was, that was surprised he lost at Del Mar–I thought he was a co-owner, I thought he said as much.
I’ve heard conflicting comments about him and how good he is and not sure what to make of him. He has to be talented to win the Los Al Futurity doing what he did. His latest work actually was pretty impressive
Steve I think if Slow Down Andy gets to the big race he will win!
Honestly, following the Derby trail without your incisive weekly analysis (and the running commentary below it) would be far less appealing. Thank you again! Your column offers so many points to discuss and argue, so I’ll keep my first reply short. [sigh of relief from crowd]
In the first paragraph, you hit upon a central theme of recent Derby history. Because the trend is toward just two 3yo preps, trainers must have their horses ready to run their best in each race. With the point system, there’s little room for error, and little time to use prep races for conditioning. Remember the days of factoring into the equation a horse’s form cycle? Until Medina Spirit, every first-place finisher in a May Derby, since Orb in 2013, had won both or all three of their 3yo preps. Your observation about Smile Happy not working this weekend was a bit troubling. One of the negatives in my amateur view regarding Dash Attack prior to the Southwest (along with a fast track for the 1st time) was that he had 10 days between his last two workouts. If Smile Happy has just one more workout before the Risen Star, I’ll be worried. Okay, that covers #1. 🙂
Thanks Eddie. I was surprised to hear Kenny say that and dont know what to make of it. I’m not crazy when a horse deviates from his once week work pattern. But you never know the real meaning behind that. You can buy the “he’s plenty fit” reasoning or not. Who knows whats going on.
Just a correction: Until Medina Spirit, every first-place finisher in a May Derby, since I’LL HAVE ANOTHER in 2012, had won both or all three of their 3yo preps.
Eddie I agree with you 100% about Steve, but having YOUR comments make this blog all the better, too!
That’s nice of you to say, Matthew. I should add that this blog is elevated by your contributions. We are fortunate to have this space with enjoyable conversation among a select few. 🙂
Steve I am guessing that this year so far has to be the most challenging for you to come up with the rankings what with the weather in the Northeast and the situation with Bob Baffert. This is on top of what we have seen in recent years of the trainers seemingly holding back on racing their trainees more than just a time or two to get the needed points to make the final cut. It has to be an exasperating chore for you and I just wanted to let you know how very much I appreciate all your hard work and the time and effort that you put into this every week!
At this point in time and based on his showing on Saturday, Emmanuel is at the top of my list. He checks off all my boxes (list of criteria). (and yes, I realize he has zero points).
I think the sky is the limit for this colt as long as he stays healthy which always seems to be a challenge every year.
The other colt that impressed me was Forbidden Kingdom. A rarity these days for a Thoroughbred to not be deeply inbred (Blushing Groom (FR): 4D X 5D) Looking forward to Papa Mandella giving him a chance at two turns.
You are so right, Lynda. This has ben my most challenging year and I dot relish having to wait until Fed. 19 before my top ranked horses make their debut. Thats why I need new faces. And I agree about Emmanuel. If he hadnt gotten sick and scratched out of that first allowance race 3 weeks earlier he very well could have been the big favorite in Saturday’s Holy Bull or even the Sam Davis and had that all important extra race, and been in the Top 3 Rankings. That will be part of my comment next week. But you can bet he will be moving up. This was just starting off point.
Great commentary as usual Steve! I went strong on Barber Road in Southwest at 11-1 and was of course disappointed with him getting away so far back. Came flyin late but too much to make up.
Thanks John, I’m glad you mentioned him. I had my notes on him all set and just forget to put them in. I have added them to Knocking on the Door.
Glad to see your added comments about Barber Road. I thought he had a decent chance to beat Newgrange at nice odds, and I was impressed by his runner-up performance. Former claimers have won the Derby before! I always keep track of trainers who might have their first Derby runner. John Ortiz is one of them (Brian Lynch, too).
He’s certainly consistent and always tries hard. He just needs to kick it up a notch. (Sorry Emeril)
Secret Oath impressed the heck out of me with the outside move she made passing horses like their feet were nailed to the track. I only remember two horses who could do that, Damascus and Secretariat. Not on your list but dang, that was an eye opener.
As we flip the calendar into month two of the new year, it seems every week brings new blood to the list. I’m looking forward to this upcoming weekend to see who next impresses. We’ve had crappy weather in NY, so I can understand Mark Casse taking a pass on this weekend.