Derby Rankings: Week 3
Because of all the activity this week and so many horses now firmly entrenched on the Derby trail we are extending the Rankings to a Sweet 16 to give as many horses as possible ample space and a place on the list of top prospects. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 3, Feb. 1
By Steve Haskin
1. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
It was a bold move putting an unspectacular maiden winner at No. 2 last week and it’s probably a bolder move elevating him to the No. 1 spot over a champion and two-time grade winner, especially when he beat a questionable field that had very little stakes experience. But sometimes you have to go by your gut feeling when you think you see all the qualities that make a Derby horse, and this colt certainly looked like a Derby horse when he crushed his field by 5 3/4 lengths in the Holy Bull Stakes. You’re not going to find a stronger pedigree, as we mentioned in detail in Week 1, and I moved him up from No. 5 to No. 2 last week when a very fast horse he ran right behind in two sprint races, Caddo River, came back to romp by 10 lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes and the second- and third-place finishers in his maiden victory both came back to run huge races next time out. He was originally scheduled to run in next week’s Withers Stakes because of the 1 1/8-mile distance, but the horse McGaughey was pointing for the Holy Bull couldn’t make the race, so he decided to keep Greatest Honour in Florida and run at the shorter distance. In the Holy Bull he showed he could lay within striking distance, make a sweeping four-wide run, and draw off at will, running solid fractions of :24 1/5, :23 2/5 :23 4/5, :24 4/5 and :06 3/5. He is the consummate pro with no quirks and he runs perfectly straight down the stretch. The first time I saw him he looked like a classy horse and he has improved his speed figures with every race.
2. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
Yes he still deserves to be No. 1 and Hot Rod Charlie showed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was a legitimate race with his gutsy performance in the three-horse blanket finish of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. But you still want to see what kind of transition he makes from 2 to 3, and a win in the February 13 Risen Star likely will put him back at No. 1. His works are progressing nicely and he has now had two solid five-furlong drills in 1:01 2/5 and 1:01 3/5 as he prepares for his 3-year-old debut, where he likely will face the brilliant Jackie’s Warrior and a number of other proven stakes horses, including possibly another Brad Cox horse, Mandaloun, and another Godolphin horse, Proxy. But it must be noted that taking this path will pretty much assure he will have only two Derby preps and a six-week layoff from the Louisiana Derby to the Kentucky Derby. No horse has ever accomplished that. In the past 25 years, the only three Kentucky Derby winners to have run in the Louisiana Derby – Grindstone, Funny Cide, and Country House – all had a race in between.
3. Senor Buscador (Todd Fincher, Mineshaft – Rose’s Desert, by Desert God)
What we mentioned about the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby pertaining to Essential Quality applies to Senor Buscador as well. But Fincher is convinced that won’t be a problem considering the way this colt trains. As of now he’s had only a couple of three-furlong blowouts so it is time for him to start picking up the tempo. I’m keeping him up this high one more week and then we’ll see what the picture looks like after next week’s Derby preps. I’m still ranking him with my heart at this point. The horse he defeated in the Springboard Mile, Cowan, came back to finish second to Caddo River in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but was beaten more than 10 lengths. However, before you link that performance to Senor Buscador you have to take into account that Cowan had to check sharply to avoid clipping heels with a horse who had cut in front of him, and despite the distance being shorter than he wants and trying to catch a runaway train he still managed to finish 7 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse. So I think you can still say the Senor beat a quality horse at Remington. If you want to know where the name comes from it is actually pretty simple. They were struggling to come up with a name based on the colt’s pedigree until owner Joe Peacock’s son’s then girlfriend and now wife noticed the name Mr. Prospector in the sire and dam’s pedigree and pointed out that Mr. Prospector in Spanish is Senor Buscador. It had a ring to it; end of search.
4. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, Laoban – Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
After his quick five-furlong work last week he slowed down to a 1:02, galloping out a very strong six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 and pulling up seven furlongs in 1:27 2/5. Diodoro is putting a lot of bottom in him with these long strong gallop-outs, and the track was slower this time than for his last work when he had a target to run at. His works, especially this one, have been more about the gallop-out than the final time. The Southwest Stakes might be a bit short for him, especially if he runs into Caddo River, but he is fit and ready after a brief vacation and light training at WinStar Farm. We probably won’t see the real Keepmeinmind until they go a mile and an eighth, but he is one horse who only needs to be closing strong in the stretch to keep moving forward toward a peak performance at Churchill Downs, where he captured the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His Thoro-Graph figures did regress ever so slightly in that race, but we’ll get a better gauge of its quality when runner-up Smiley Sobotka runs next Saturday in the Sam F. Davis Stakes.
5. Caddo River (Brad Cox, Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats)
Cox could be holding a pat hand at both Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Park, and with this guy I’m not sure who can beat him if he keeps displaying the kind of high cruising speed that we saw in his last two races. If he takes after his sire in any way then there is no telling how far he can carry that speed. And his female family certainly isn’t going to hold him back. The fact that he was able run half-mile fractions in :44 and change and :45 in sprint races and then throttle back and go :47 and change stretching out to two turns demonstrates how difficult it is going to be to beat this horse. He has an interesting Thoro-Graph pattern, pairing up a 9 1/2 in his first two races and then pairing up a 4 1/4 in his last two races. When a horse jumps five points you like to see him pair up that number to validate it and not get too fast too early. If he moves up several points next time and then pairs that up it would set him up for a peak performance in the Derby. This could mark the return to prominence after three decades of owner John Ed Anthony, who raced Eclipse Award winners Temperence Hill, Vanlandingham, and Prairie Bayou, and Preakness winner Pine Bluff under the name Loblolly Stable.
6. Life is Good (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
If you were concerned that he hadn’t worked in 16 days since his sharp half-mile in :47 flat, he did have a slight setback but returned to the work tab January 27 with an easy half in :49 3/5, so assuming his next start will be the San Felipe on March 6, his missed work was pretty insignificant and he looks to be back on track. Although his time wasn’t fast, he looked sensational from a physical standpoint. He is a beautiful mover with a smooth efficient stride and is very light on his feet. Of more concern is whether Baffert can harness his speed and hopefully get him to settle off the pace. He sure didn’t look speed crazy in this work and had his ears pricked right from the start. He looks to have enough stamina in his female family to counteract Into Mischief, and if you want to bring up Authentic, let me say again I doubt he would have won the Derby on the first Saturday in May. This colt, like Authentic, is a big rangy sort and doesn’t look like a sprinter, but the question is, will he be ready to go a mile and a quarter off only four career starts? He certainly has the talent and all the mechanics, and I don’t believe we have seen anything even close to his best.
7. Roman Centurian (Simon Callaghan, Empire Maker – Spare Change, by Bernardini)
He is another I took a shot with in Week 1 by ranking a maiden winner with only two starts in the Top 12, but he lived up to that maiden score with an excellent effort against proven stakes horses in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, finishing second in a three-horse photo and outdueling the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up while having the widest trip of the three. Mechanically, he did everything right, but just couldn’t get his head in front of a game Medina Spirit. The reason he is ranked higher is that, according to Trakus, he ran 30 feet farther than the winner, which is equivalent to far more than the head margin and the few hundredths of a second he was beaten. For example, turning for home he was 15.7 feet off the rail compared to 5.9 feet for Medina Spirit. As I stated in Week 1 for those who did not see it, if you’re looking for a pedigree loaded with class, the Phippses bred his first four dams, his second and third dams were Grade 1 winners, his fourth dam was a Grade 2 winner and the dam of three Grade 1 winners, and his fifth dam, Lady Pitt, won the CCA Oaks, Mother Goose, and Delaware Handicap. In his first five generations are 10 classic winners who won a total of 17 classic races, as well as eight Hall of Famers. There is no doubt the future is very bright for this colt.
8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
Well, we know he’s a fighter. When a Bob Baffert horse has the rail in a two-turn race, you can be sure he’s going for the lead if no one wants it. The feeling here is that this is not where he wants to be. Into the backstretch he was flicking his ears back and forth. When Wipe the Slate moved up to his flank he pinned his ears and once again eased clear. Around the turn he was back to flicking his ears and you could tell he hadn’t been asked to run. If his stride looked a bit sloppy for a brief instant turning for home it most likely was because he switched to his right lead too early. In any event, he still had plenty left in the stretch and refused to let Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie get past him. The most impressive aspect of his race was that, over a dead track, he set testing fractions of :22 4/5 and :46 3/5. By comparison, in the San Pasqual for older horses earlier on the same card they went in :23 4/5 and :48 3/5. He then went the three quarters in 1:12 1/5 compared to 1:13 3/5 in the San Pasqual. So it was understandable why they didn’t come home fast. The first three all look like top-class horses and they galloped out in a different area code from the others. We’ll see what kind of strategy they use next time on this colt. He showed in the Sham Stakes what he can do coming from off the pace.
9. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
He certainly was flattered by Greatest Honour’s performance in the Holy Bull. When the two hooked up in a furious stretch drive going a mile and an eighth in November he made the first move and held on doggedly to win by a head. I believe his well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes was due to his dislike for the sloppy track, as he never looked comfortable. He has been working well, going five furlongs in a sharp :59 4/5 then an easy half-mile in :49, which should set him up nicely for Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay. By Curlin, out of one of the great European sire lines, he will run all day. If he can get a fast track next week we’ll find out once and for all if the Remsen was a throwout race. A big effort and he puts himself right up there with the leading Derby contenders.
10. Smiley Sobotka (Dale Romans, Brody’s Cause – Dance Thewayyouare, by Mineshaft)
I know the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes didn’t get good speed rating and he has a lot of improving to do off his 8 1/4 Thoro-Graph figure, but the horse who beat him, Keepmeinmind, had already proven himself with his big efforts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Breeders’ Futurity. So we really won’t know how good this horse is until he makes his 3-year-old debut, which will also come next Saturday in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. After several five-furlong breezes Romans sharpened him up with a brisk half-mile work in :46 4/5, so he looks ready to come out running. He has improved with every start, has excellent tactical speed, and he should only get better as the distances stretch. He will get a good test from Known Agenda, which should make the Sam Davis an excellent prep.
11. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
I’m not sure yet how effective he is going to be at a mile and a quarter, but he showed his excellent second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 94-1 was no fluke when he was third in a three-horse photo in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, while taking all the worst of it between horses the entire stretch run, getting bounced around from both sides and being in very tight quarters in the final yards. But he battled on gamely against two promising Derby horses. We’ll see how the speed figures come out on this race, but so far you couldn’t ask for a better progression, going from a 16 1/2 to an 8 1/2 to a 3 3/4 on Thoro-Graph. This is a horse who sold for a mere $17,000 as a yearling, then pinhooked later in the year for $110,000, where he was picked out by Dennis O’Neill.
12. The Great One (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Little Ms. Protocol, by El Corredor)
Last week I said I was not sure if his 14-length maiden romp was quite as good as it looked, but after further scrutiny I am now convinced this is a serious horse based on his mechanics and his maturity from a gangly green colt to a polished professional. What put me over the edge was his Thoro-Graph figures and the most dramatic leap I can remember, going from a 17, 17, 16 and 10 to a 1. So, from wondering if he was too slow, you suddenly go to wondering if he went too fast too soon. With two preps left and six weeks to the San Felipe all you want is for him to maintain that form and not have any dramatic leaps forward or backward. He wasn’t flattered by the poor effort of Spielberg in the Robert Lewis, but he seems to have made great strides since that race. He was named by his co-owner, hockey star Erik Johnson, after his boyhood idol Wayne Gretzky. He had RNA’d at the sale for $195,000. But Dennis O’Neill had fallen in love with him and sent Johnson photos and a video of the colt. Others tried to buy him privately for $150,000 to $160,000, but Johnson told him to get over there and get the horse bought. He offered $185,000 and got the colt, and Johnson went in for 40%. Despite nearly pulling off a huge upset in the Los Alamitos Futurity as a maiden, in which he got beat the slightest head bob by Spielberg, track clockers told O’Neill he was running for second when he faced Baffert’s 3-5 favorite Fenway in last Saturday’s maiden race. But he sat right off Fenway’s flank, ran him into the ground through rapid early fractions over a dead track, and drew with every stride before galloping out some 25 lengths ahead of the runner-up.
13. Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker)
It will be interesting to see what Cox does with him. He likely will have Essential Quality making his 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star Stakes February 13, and if he ships him to Oaklawn for the Southwest Stakes he could run into another Cox-trained horse, Caddo River, who looks to have a stranglehold right now on the Oaklawn 3-year-old picture. He does have the Rebel Stakes if he wants to wait that long. It is extremely tough separating the first three finishers of the LeComte, but he ran the best speed figures and just makes a classy appearance with a good deal of upside. He remains sharp, working a half in :48 1/5, second fastest of 99 works at the distance. He has never been flashy, but he is tough and consistent and can sustain his run a long way.
14. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
I think in the long run he may turn out to be a better Derby prospect than Mandaloun, but I just want to see what he can do coming from off the pace and not controlling a race with an easy lead, as he did in the LeComte. He is built like a stayer, but I want to see him erase two of stakes defeats in which he sat off the pace. He gave up a clear lead in the stretch in the Iroquois Stakes and had Sittin’ on Go run right by him, and Sittin’ on Go has run poorly in his last three starts. He then tired badly in the Champagne Stakes, beaten over 14 lengths. I do believe he is a better horse this year, but he needs to show a little more versatility and the ability to come home fast and draw away from horses. For him, the real test will come when he faces some heavy hitters based at Fair Grounds in the Risen Star Stakes.
15. Proxy (Michael Stidham, Tapit – Panty Raid, by Include)
There isn’t much more to say about him until we can see one race where he’s ridden properly and doesn’t get hit continuously left-handed. If this horse can keep a straight course who knows how good he can be. To show how close he is to Mandaloun in the afternoon and the morning, he turned in the exact same work of :48 1/5, right down to the same one-hundredths, second fastest of 99 works at the distance. And no they did not work in company. To demonstrate how quickly he is improving he went from a pair 13 1/4 Thoro-Graph figures to a 5 in the LeComte and his pedigree suggests he should keep on improving. If Prevalence continues his meteoric rise, Godolphin could have a potent three-headed monster. This definitely is a horse who is still a work in progress and who knows what we’ll see in a few months.
16. Tarantino (Rodolphe Brisset, Pioneerof the Nile – without Delay, by Seeking the Gold)
He was no match for Greatest Honour in the Holy Bull, but it was an excellent effort for his first start ever on dirt. He has had an unusual journey so far. He was purchased as a yearling at Keeneland for $610,000 and turned over to Bob Baffert. He obviously was not turning heads in his works on dirt, so Baffert started him twice on grass, something you rarely if ever see him do with a young horse. After he finished second, beaten a nose, in the Zuma Beach Stakes it was decided to put him back in the sale, but no one was interested, so they bought him back for only $240,000 and sent him back east to Brisset. In his first start for his new trainer he was impressive winning a one-mile allowance race on grass, and when he started working well on dirt, Brisset decided to try him in the Holy Bull and he ran a bang-up second at 26-1, pressing the pace the whole way, finally putting the leader away, and then outrunning the favorite Prime Factor for second. Although he couldn’t handle the closing punch of Greatest Honour he never quit and was striding out well at the wire, while finishing almost four lengths ahead of Prime Factor.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
It was tempting to try to squeeze CONCERT TOUR into the Rankings considering he is reported to be one of Baffert’s best 3-year-olds. But he still has a ways to go before he stretches out to two turns, so we’ll wait a little longer before ranking him with the more accomplished horses. But from what I’ve seen so far in his one race and in his works he looks like the real deal. Baffert is moving him gradually up the ladder and we’ll what happens when he gets to the major preps.
For those, myself included, who have an urge to rank impressive first-out maiden sprint winners, all you have to do is look at the performances Saturday of PRIME FACTOR and AMOUNT. The former was way overbet at even-money in the Holy Bull stretching out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, and while he managed to finish a well-beaten third, he was rubber-legged turning for home and had nothing left. We’ll see if he can step way up next time with this race under his belt. Amount was up there early in the Holy Bull, but faded quickly and was eased at the head of the stretch.
One horse looking to get back in the Rankings is CAPO KANE, who will stretch out to 1 1/8 miles in Saturday’s Withers Stakes. Trainer Harold Wyner has been giving him strong two-minute licks to put some air in his lungs and he is just beginning wake up and get more aggressive. He’s been thriving at Parx and if he repeats his performance in the Jerome he is going to be very tough to beat. Although the Withers is not expected to draw a strong field, there will be some potentially good horses in there, and another impressive victory by Capo Kane would make him a serious Derby horse.
One horse who could show up and bears watching is LEBLON, who has been training super at The Thoroughbred Center in Lexington. Trained by Paulo Lobo, the son of Broken Vow has improved with every start and broke his maiden with a game performance going 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs. He has plenty of bottom under him with three two-turn races and three six-furlong works. He is bred to run all day and would be a welcome addition to the field. Todd Pletcher could have two in there with last-out winners OVERTOOK, who won coming from far back, and DONEGAL BAY, who won on the front end.
But keep an eye on two possible Maryland invaders SHACKQUEENKING, who shortened up to run a solid third in the seven-furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes last out, and ROYAL NUMBER, who I find very intriguing. After a second and a third in allowance races at Laurel he was given Lasix for the first time and looked sensational, slipping through on the inside and quickly drawing off to win by 7 3/4 lengths with the jockey way up in the saddle the last quarter mile as if in a workout. His trainer Mike Trombetta is not sure how much of a role Lasix played and we won’t know until he runs again without it. But it just could be he is improving at the right time and is loving the two turns, being bred for stamina top and bottom. At this moment Trombetta is not sure what the plans are, but he is looking at all options, including the Withers.
On the training front, Nyquist Stakes winner HIGHLY MOTIVATED continues to work steadily at Payson Park for Chad Brown, his last being a half-mile breeze in :49 1/5. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner FIRE AT WILL moved a step closer to his 3-year-old debut with a five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park. JACKIE’S WARRIOR, pointing for his debut in the Risen Star Stakes, worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5. I like the way they’ve been giving him nice easy works, as he needs to harness some of that speed and learn how to win from off the pace.
Three impressive maiden winners DEFEATER, CARILLO, and PRATE all worked at Fair Grounds as they look to stretch out to two turns. Prate in particular was very impressive working five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 flat, fastest of 55 works at the distance. Carillo has an advantage over the other two having won first out going a flat mile at Aqueduct. All three look to have a bright future.
DRAIN THE CLOCK, impressive winner of the seven-furlong Swale Stakes, looks to be the dominant sprinter in Florida, but his connections still haven’t ruled out the possibility of stretching him out in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
I don’t know how dead the Aqueduct track is or what to make of the 1:56 1/5 time for 1 1/8 miles, but THE REDS looked very impressive visually winning a maiden race with a strong move from last after splitting horses to win going away by almost four lengths. John Kimmel trains the son of Belmont winner Tonalist.
Another exciting prospect to watch stretching out in the Sam F. Davis Stakes is the Bill Mott-trained CANDY MAN ROCKET, who, following a dismal career debut in the slop, romped by 9 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream. The son of Candy Ride broke on top but took back and settled three lengths off the lead. When John Velazquez asked him at the head of the stretch he drew off under a hand ride. He does have a slight paddle to his stride but he is a classy looking individual and we’ll see how he does going two turns against some seasoned stakes horses.
Well Steve, Proxy has a new pilot for the Risen Star Stakes, John Velazquez. Perfect.
Doesn’t Proxy appear to be grinder like fellow Tapit progeny Tacitus. Johnny V was unable to get Tacitus to separate from Mystic Guide and the eventual winner in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I cannot see him being able to get Proxy to same against what appear to be faster opponents.
He drifted under whipping in his last two starts. However, even if he had maintained a straight curse, he wouldn’t have finished significantly faster. he appears to be tough grinding colt devoid of the gears necessary gears to repel serious closers.
Obviously these are young horses and they can improve literally overnight. But this colt has exhibited it running style which appear one dimensional Slow and grinding.
I think you are trying to convince yourself rather than me. Moreover, I wouldn’t be blaming Johnny Velazquez on Tacitus’ inability to run past the competition. They were trying various tactics. Tacitus is best left to run his own race.
Yesterday, 2-6, Mandaloun worked a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.80, 1/35, at the Fair Grounds. It certainly appears that Brad Cox has his colt locked and loaded for a big showing in the Risen Star. By hot sire, Into Mischief, Mandaloun has a good mix of speed and stamina in his makeup. The 9 furlong Risen Star distance should be right up his alley, and the one to beat, IMO.
Safe trips to all.
Post 11. at the Fair Grounds has a low winning percentage of only 6.2 for distance races. Good luck with Mandaloun. Not for me. Keepmeinmind has an even worst post with Post 12.
Mandaloun has shown improving speed figures, which should get him in a good position approaching the first turn. He shares the 3rd highest late pace figure with Midnight Bourbon, with only two higher, (Santa Cruiser, at 109, and Senor Buscador, at 105).
Keep in mind the Risen Star will be contested at 9 furlongs, none of these colts have have gone that far in any of their races.
Mandaloun’s dam side reflects an abundance of stamina influence, to compliment the speed on his sire side.
Bottom line, Mandaloun checks a lot of boxs; hot sire (Into Mischief) hot trainer/jockey combo (Cox/Geroux) a good mix of speed/stamina, and that 5F bullet work on Saturday is a good indication he’s in good form.
The horse that scares me the most is Senor Buscador.
Good luck with your pick.
Just playing devil’s advocate here. If Mandaloun ‘checks a lot of boxes’ why did he come in third last time? The field for the Risen Star Stakes is an advance on his previous competition. Good luck though. Should be a fun race.
For Mandaloun to finish 3rd, just a length behind the winner, in his first Stakes race says a lot for his potential moving forward, IMO. Dismiss Mandaloun to your heart’s contend. Pending the outcome of the Risen Star, I’ll continue to support him on the Derby trail.
Have a nice day Davids.
Morning Bill,
I like to theorize the likely path to victory for my fancied entrant in a race. I am interested to know the path to victory for Mandaloun.
Judging from his Lacomte effort. He appeared to hang. His stride extension didn’t indicate he was closing resolutely but rather maintaining a good rhythm with little realistic chance of overhaling the leader or separating from the eventual runner-up .
The fractions recorded in the Lecomte were modest. Midnight Bourbon enjoyed an uncontested lead. Given said modest fraction, he should have pulled away. But instead his opponents kept grinding away at his lead. Midnight Bourbon is a nice colt but a cut or two below those occupying the upper echelon of the division.
If there was a serious closer in the Lecomte, I doubt the final time of 1:44.41 would have been fast enough to keep it out of the winners enclosure. There are two serious closers in the Risen Star field. With a contentious pace expected. I cannot envisage the top 3 from the Lecomte holding both of them off.
If the entrant I like runs to expectation. I am of the opinion the KD winner is likely to emerge from this prep. He is not covered above.
Hey Facts
In my view, we haven’t seen the best of Mandaloun. I posted a reply to Davids earlier (see above), expressing my view on Mandaloun. The colt that’s getting my attention is Senor Buscador, with that big close he made in the Remington Springboard Mile.
That long stretch at the Fair Grounds should benefit Senor Buscador’s chances. However, just for clarification, I’ll remain aboard the Mandaloun bandwagon, pending the outcome of the Risen Star.
Good luck with your pick Facts.
I think Risk Taking is also inbred to Buckpasser as well. Colt has the DNA. All he needs are the qualifying points, good health, and a little racing luck. No comment about being “too slow”. At this time of the year, three-year-olds are on the improve and figuring it all out.
Very impressed with Risk Taking’s winning performance in the Withers Stakes February 6. Coming from midpack to finish strong. Even more impressed with his 5-cross pedigree, which should be ideal for 1 1/4 miles and KD 2021.
I have the second-place finisher, Overtook, who finished 3 3/4 lengths back, in a future book wager, but not sure how he makes up the difference in lengths in the coming weeks. At least Overtook, who rallies from back of the pack, has learned to take kickback and still finish his races.
A couple of serious race horses, Risk Taking and Greatest Honour, have stepped up as legitimate KD 2021 runners in Jan-Feb. The East Coast is looking good up to this point.
Risk Taking, inbred to Damascus. Like Big Brown. He and Greatest Honour are built for 10f.
Two very nice colts but too slow to win the KD.
LOL
“Cassandra,” the masses are still not taking heed of your prophetic warnings of disaster.
I think Risk Taking is also inbred to Buckpasser as well. Colt has the DNA. All he needs are the qualifying points, good health, and a little racing luck. No comment about being “too slow”. At this time of the year, three-year-olds are on the improve and figuring it all out.
I liked Unbridled Honor’s performance yesterday. The figures won’t be that good, but that was a promising performance; I liked the bold move he made mid race and the agility and burst at the end, after being blocked for the last furlong.
Unbridled Honor appeared a bit immature, physically, for the Derby Trail but there are still 3 months of growth until Derby Day. Irish Honor might give you some cheer in the months to come.
Hi David – how are you?
He’s definitely still got growing up to do – the race before this one, he failed to improve on his sneaky good debut as he was well-beaten by Risk Taker. Obviously that was a good race, and with his pedigree UH should improve. I’m all for Todd going slow with him. What puzzles me is that he ran one tick slower than the filly stakes (but without the trouble, it would have been faster), yet his BSF was 14 points less. Considering that Beyers only care about final time, I don’t understand that.
Irish Honor looked pretty good in his first start for Saffie Joseph, but I think he’s a sprinter. A horse I love is Ethical Judgement, who is recovering from a minor issue. He may be a turf horse, not sure, but he looked good breaking his maiden in his dirt debut at Keeneland.
Hi Betsy, I’ve been lucky, hope it’s been the same with you. Thus far anyway, Ethical Judgment appears to be Honor Code’s best from his second crop. Although, Unbridled Honor is an improving type with an active family.
Creed should be in a race soon so there’s something to look forward to.
Yes, fortunately I can’t complain. I readily admit that EJ beat a bunch of off the turf horses, but he did it easily. If he winds up being a turf horse (he ran very well in his debut, on turf), I’d be very happy. We’ll see about UH – he has a wonderful female family, and he strikes me as a late developer.
Oh my god, I’m SO happy about Creed…….so excited!!!!!! Also, another HC that I loved – a filly named Talking Book – is on the comeback trail for Shug. She’s been off since last February, I think – and although she’s still a maiden after two starts, she showed a lot of promise. I felt at the time that she’d be a stakes winner. Whether she’s the same filly after what was apparently a bad injury, I don’t know, but they must have been high on her as they easily could have retired her to breed.
And that is why to don’t bet a unraced 3 yr old at 26-1 in the future wager!! Bezos just finished 6th of 9!
Wasn’t there a lot of hype around Bezos? Did something happen to Bezos in the race?
He is not the Amazonian that he was cracked up to be.
These gargantuan 3 year olds aren’t the most aesthetically looking either.
Nothing happened in the race apart from the phony Bezos looked heavier than a T28 War Tank … Mike Battaglia is jeopardizing the future of the future Derby bets… his time doing this thing might be over !
*looking
A colt by Empire Maker out of an A P Indy mare working 5F in 58 plus, could only occur in one barn.
Bezos wasn’t bred to work 58 for 5F. On a previous blog I alluded to the fact there was too much stamina in his pedigree and not enough speed. I do believe you disagreed.
I did not even read your post …! I am just telling you that Battaglia should be held accountable for putting that horse as a fool’s trap to the public…!
I never ever fall for that kind of non-sense. My rule is very clear … you should always wait for at least three races in order to better characterize the Derby prowess of any given young horse.
Please, don’t ever put words in my mouth… Thanks
Two good points, or possibly 3.
One of the amusements among some member of the Haskin community is picking Steve’s brain so as to predict how the ranking might look after relevant preps unfold. So, every week it is tempting to guess who is promoted and who is demoted from the honor roll.
Known Agenda and Smiley Sobotka were disappointing in the Sam Davis and will likely be downgraded. But who are filling the two vacancies ?
Remaining in the ranking are Essential Quality, Senor Buscador, Keepmeinmind, Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon and Proxy since they will be making their cases next week.
Providing the highly touted Bezos (who is debuting in 15 minutes from now) is no Justify I presume the ranking tomorrow will just include Concert Tour, Risk Taking and Candy Man Rocket at the tail (14, 15 and 16 places respectively).
What do you think? Are the three winners of the prep races this weekend making the ranking?
Must disagree about KA and SS being likely downgraded. They will DEFINITELY be downgraded…out of the Sweet 16. Yesterday’s three winners are likely to get in. But Nova Rags and Hidden Stash must also be considered. I think Steve will put Risk Taking higher than the bottom of the list, based on his teaser of a couple of days ago. For good reason, he’s having a hard time separating the top three in the Lecomte, but something’s got to give with the new candidates.
It is understandable putting the three top finishers in the LeComte bunched below the top ten. They will be separated further after the Risen Star for sure.
Senor Buscador and Keepmeinmind will likely stay within the top 4 as the possible pace in the Risen Star looks to be favoring the closers.
Keith Desormeaux could be throwing his hat into the ring with Santa Cruiser… his only card in the Trail.
Next week will be very telling indeed!
Steve, is much less forgiving in the modified Derby Rankings. I’d be surprised if Known Agenda and Smiley Sobotka weren’t removed. Moreover, sprinting doesn’t cut the mustard either so Concert Tour will have to wait until he competes in other stakes with points.
Risk Taking will make the grade but the big question is which of the top 3 form the Sam F. Davis Stakes will make it or not at all?
This past Thursday, (2-4), I mentioned Risk Taking’s tail-female side, having the strong class influence. by legendary breeder Ogden “Dinny” Phipps. Private Account in the 3rd generation, Damascus, Numbered Account and Con Game in the 4th generation and Sword Dancer, Majestic Prince and Buckpasser, appearing twice in the 5th generation.
Risk Taking’s win in the 9F Withers, provided clear proof 10 furlongs is well within his range.
In the Withers, I keyed Risking Taking and Capo Kane on top, with 4 others underneath in my super. Coming down the stretch I thought I had it, but Overtook went right on by Capo Kane to knock me out of the super.
However, earlier on the Aqueduct card (3rd race) my $5.00 superfecta box of 1-2-5-6 hit for $1347.50. Getting 2 horses on the 1 post ( 1 & 1A) and two horses on the 2 post (2 & 2A) was good to have going into the race, IMO. So all and all I had an excellent day. Now its on to the Risen Star. I like Brad Cox’s colt, Mandaloun, for the win.
Drinks are on Bill!
It would be my pleasure EddieF. What part of the country do you call home.
Risen Star Stakes, February 13, entries
1 Starrininmydreams
2 Proxy
3 Beep Beep
4 Carillo
5 Senor Buscador
6 Midnight Bourbon
7 O Besos
8 Sermononthemount
9 Defeater
10 Santa Cruiser
11 Mandaloun
12 Keepmeinmind
13 Rightandjust
O Besos – A very serious colt.
Not to be confused with Bezos. 😉
No confusion.
Appears to be a very competitive race, about 7 wouldn’t surprise. Some questions will be answered.
Senor……Senor…..will you tell me where we’re headin’….good post good horse.
Best last-race Brisnet numbers
Withers — Risk Taking, 98
SB Davis — Candy Man Rocket, 97
Hmmm…..
Testing 1,2,3
Just joined the site
Can anyone confirm?
Loud and clear
Hidden Stash will love the 10 furlongs!
Yes, Hidden Stash keeps improving in every race. The Tampa Bay Derby should be ideal, next out.
Runway Magic looks great. Worth an each way wager.
You put the kibosh on my longshot special. 🙁 🙂
Hey, Steve. Now that Risk Taking has won, I’m even more interested in reading your comments for Monday. How about a teaser? 😉 As expected, I didn’t bet him due to low odds.
Congrats on Risk Taking !… that is you get when trying to forecast the weather over Oldsmar.
Thanks! He looked very professional running middle of the pack with a relatively slow pace.
Now you have to congratulate me on CANDY MAN ROCKET …!
Wow! Very nice! Was that you hammering him down from a 10-1 ML? 🙂
LOL … I wish I am able to sway pools…. ! Just decided to play all in the Trifecta so as to get much more than the 3 to 1 to win.
Perhaps many people SAW how Promise Keeper (who was 4th 10 lengths behind The Rocket in his last) demolished an excellent field at a mile at Gulfstream earlier. Even Jeebar (3rd in the same race) was a very game runner-up to a nice Pletcher debut winner Democracy in the 7th race there.
The son of Candy Ride was supposed to be an overlay! but the collective intelligence of the People is right 80% of the time…!
I can’t imagine the GP races having that much of an effect on the SB Davis betting. But who knows?!?! Need to watch for the second-place finishers in the last race of both Risk Taking and Candy Man Rocket. (3rd-place finisher The Reds in RT’s last race came back to win.)
Todd Pletcher’s Overtook is the pick of the paddock. I expect a explosive stretch run.
Which of the works below by 10, 3YOs appear inconsistent with an Empire Maker progeny?
Bezos – Empire Maker out of a A P Indy mare. Best 5F work 58+. (BBaffert)
Roman Centurian – Empire Maker out of a Bernardini mare. Bes 5F work 1:01. (SCallaghan)
Core Curriculum – Empire Maker out of a Danzig mare. Best 5F work in 1:01+ (TPletcher)
Moraz (F) – Empire Maker out of a A P Indy mare. Best 5F work 1:00+. (McCarthy)
Big Easy Empire – Empire Maker out of a Malibu Moon. Best 5F work 1:00+. (MStidham)
Epic Empire – Empire Maker out of a Street Sense mare. Best 5F work 1:01+.
Bird Ruler – Empire Maker out of a Indian Charlie mare. Best 5F work 1:01+.
Made In Karoo – Empire Maker out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare. Best 5F work 1:01+. (PMiller)
Kattegat – Empire Maker out of a Wild Rush mare. Best 5F work 1:03+. (MMaker)
Adara – Empire Maker out of a Forest Camp mare. Best 5F work 1:02+ (KMcPeek)
A colt by Empire Maker out of a A P Indy mare working 5F in 58 plus, could only occur in one barn.
The track at Oldsmar will likely be a bog.
So I hear. I rremember how bad Known Agenda looked in the slop. Lets see if PLetcher scratches. Not may alternatives. Should move a grass horse like Lucky Law up.
Yeah. I have a feeling KA won’t be scratched. Even on an off track, the Davis is a much softer spot than the Southwest in 9 days. The Davis is a crapshoot, with most runners having either a decent slop pedigree or decent races on off tracks (exceptions are KA, Candy Man Rocket, Joe Man Joe). Is there such a thing as a No Rain Dance?
So far its fast. It was sunny earlier.
So far, the heavy rain has stayed to the north and east of the area. Plenty of time for a deluge though.
Bummer. was going to make Hidden Stash my third big play of the year, but won’t do that on the off going…WILL play him, though.
Hidden Stash ran a great race, arguably, better than the first two who both ran great for Bill Mott.
Only closer that finished in the picture—wish he could’ve gone thru the seam, instead of outside the leaders–would’ve been 2nd at least..wasn’t beat by much.
Yes, probably inexperience. Even so, it was a progression and Hidden Stash was picking up both the colts in front of him, late. Good signs. Ha ha
Unanimously, is another that could come on by May, he ran well at the Fair Grounds all things considered. Promise Keeper was impressive at Gulfstream for later in the year.
My quagmire Exacta: 1- Hidden Stash / 6 – Runway Magic / 7 – Boca Boy / 11- Lucky Law
Sometimes heavy rain is just pesos from the sky…
Still dry. Glad to see you have Runway Magic in there. Your exotic wagers will not affect my win bet. 🙂
Thoro-GLucky Lawraph Figures
I am neither familiar with the above figures nor the mathematical and other variables used in their computation.
Lucky Law was assigned poor Thoro-Graph Figures for his 2 career starts on turf.
DEBUT – 5F – Fractions – 22.51; 44.96; 56.68 – (Finished 2nd by 1 1/4L; closing 3 to 4 lengths off the pace)
His sire was a crack sprinter. His dam sire was a mega router. If Lucky Law is more of a router and less of a sprinter. Wouldn’t finishing 2nd by 1 1/4L in a 5F sprint competed in 56+ be view an excellent effort for a router? How would such a performance be assigned a poor TG figure?
2ND START – 8F – Fractions – 23.08; 47.87; 1:13.44; 1:25.24; 1:36:46 – (1ST by 1 1/2L; final 1/8 -11.22)
The fractions were modest but the final 1/8 (11.22) was blisteringly fast. A colt that finished 2nd by 1 1/4L over 5F after f 21 & 44 fractions, will just be jogging when 23, 47, 1:13 are being recorded.
Pace makes the race. Lucky Law was only required to run fast in the final 2F. His final furlong was 11.22. How much faster should the colt have gone to get a favor TG number.
I avoid using speed figure and the results from other post race performance assessments. A poor TG figure for a young horse is not very significant. A router that is devoid of tactical speed, in a sprint race is not expected get a good TG Figure. Youngsters can improve overnight and can be baadly beaten in their previous start and first in the next i.e.,. Tawprit/ Bravazo.
There is absolutely no way to accurately asses the improvement a young horse has made between starts. Sometime a groom/equipment change can transform a young horse.
The limitations of Speed and TG figures makes them not as significant as the developers want the masses to believe .
Top ten horse Capo Kane (3/1) is the second favorite in the Withers Stakes behind Chad Brown’s Risk Taking (5/2). KOTD horses OVERTOOK (6/1), DONEGAL BAY (7/2), SHACKQUEENKING (10/1) and ROYAL NUMBER (6/1) will be trying to defeat the two favorites.
Eagle Orb is a nice New Yorker who deserves betting a few bucks on his number if you are looking for a viable long shot.
Hey EddieF got the tip that Capo Kane is suffering from a BS … bad sign that is …… so it is worth looking for at least an ROI of 8 in the Whiters… wadjou think?
I’ve already thrown my spotless reputation on Risk Taking (BEFORE he was made the ML favorite! Aarrgghh).
Is a B.S. B.S? I have know idea what what it is.
You need to ask Nelson…or Pro Vet. LOL
Oh Bad Sign, I get it.
You were way faster than Eddie to get the pun intended …LOL
“A pun?!?
No, no…not a pun…What’s that thing that spells the same backwards as forwards?”
–MPFC, 1969
“Desk Set”
Spencer Tracy asks Katharine Hepburn:
“Now, do you notice anything unusual
about the following sentence?
“Able was I, ere I saw Elba.””
Hepburn responds: “”Um, no. But..I doubt that Napoleon
ever said anything like that. Unless you mean because it’s spelled
the same way backward and forward. Is that what you meant?
What do they call it? A…”
Tracy replies: “A palindrome.”
davids,
Who knew that Tracy/Hepburn could intersect with Palin/Cleese?
Steve I am curious to know your take on Lucky Law moving to dirt … just looking for a bombshell … not Cindy Crawford but a horse paying 20 to 1 getting in the Tri…
Thanks in advance for your views…
Well, you should check out Charlize Theron in the movie “Bombshell.”
Cindy would not forgive any cheating …
I spoke to Patrick about him because of the quick turn of foot he showed and his sharp dirt worls. He said he is a very talented horse who works as well on dirt as he does on grass. Female familyl is all European grass. Thoro-Graph figs on grass are very slow so we’ll see how much he improves on dirt
Many thanks for the information… Please, send me your consulting fees by February 30.
Just mail me a blank check
The three Derby-trail races this week will give a better idea of how to sort out a good number of hopefuls. Twenty seven horses will be making their (Derby) cases this Saturday and the ones biting the dust will most likely be forgotten (unless they have a valid excuse but time to rebound is limited anyways).
The Sam F. Davis Stakes features 13 horses including Steve’s top 10 Smiley Sobotka (3/1) and Known Agenda (6/1).
Also in the race are two Bill Mott horses flagged in the KOTD section: CANDY MAN ROCKET (10/1) and NOVA RAGS (4/1). Both horses are well meant and should be relishing the 1 /16 mile going. Nova Rags could be ending as the cofavorite with Sobotka but I like Candy Man Rocket to win under Junior Alvarado who is the first-call jockey for Mott. I just love his pedigree top to bottom … the son of Candy Ride will be my key horse in any bet.
Smiley Sobotka is a deserving favorite but I can not shake from my head the appalling dislike of his sire Brody’s Cause to the Tampa surface in 2016. I do not recall he had any other justification for his 7th place in the Tampa Bay Derby as he went on straight from there to win the Blue Grass…! I believe Steve has labeled Tampa as a quirky surface. Who knows!
Hidden Stash could be running well enough in the Sam Davis to make the Knocking on the Door.
I will be relying on Mott and Pletcher horses with Hidden Stash to try hitting the Trifecta.
I like Candy Man Rocket’s chances, too. Good pick!
That’s nice Mary Ellen… so good luck for both of us then…
Good one!
Fastest last-out Thoro-Graph number belongs to Mr. Doda. Capo Kane next.
But of course Mr. Doda is coming off 5 1/2 furlong races and is bred to be sprinter so I have no idea what he’s doing here
Tampa Bay’s surface is usually kind and safe for the horses, nonetheless, the surface is much less demanding that it used to be. I really enjoy the ‘quirkiness’ of Tampa Bay year after year.
That is a good point Davids… 2016 conditions might be very different from current ones.
I was thinking more 2007, and before, when Any Given Saturday was a close second to Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby but you’re right, nonetheless.
No love for Boca Boy!
His ML 5/1 didn’t generate any curiosity? His 2 wins were recorded on off tracks. Rain is in the forecast for Tamla Bay. The colt is likely to return 4 months between starts on a surface he apparently relishes.
Boca Boy doesn’t possess the appealing pedigree of many in the field. But many can out run modest pedigrees. He is a big colt with excellent stride mechanics and good tactical speed. He carried said speed from gate to wire in the 8 1/2L In Reality @ the generous odds of 12/1.
A colt that size, with tactical speed and efficiency in movement, has to be a better athlete returning for 4 months of further development.
NB: The colt was being directed to the KJC Stake at CD when he suffered a setback.
I consider him a worthy Trifecta
Concert Tour is in Saturday’s 7f San Vicente. Is the San Felipe next?
Steady progression. Doubt he will run against Life is Good, so Rebel could be alternative for either one, and he has to find a spot for Medina Spirit.
What a predicament! LOL
CONCERT TOUR is the one primed to be climbing the ranks. If he wins the San Vicente like an odds-on favorite should, I can see the son of Street Sense and maternal grandson of Tapit making the top 15.
One has to be fascinated by the speed displayed by Concert Tour given he got stamina to spare in his family.
His stable mate Freedom Fighter has been really impressive training for his comeback after sidelined for 5 months. The son of Violence will likely be delivering a good spectacle in the San Vicente.
With that pedigree, CT wins a 6f debut with a 94 Brisnet number while toying with his competition. Can’t wait to see him in a 2-turn. Freedom Fighter is meant for this one.
You are more than Right …! ✌
The Chosen Vron drew poorly—is a good horse, Cal-bred or not…
Love all of this, Steve. Essential Quality stands atop my leaderboard but what do you think about Medina Spirit’s pedigree?
rightfully so, he probably should be there. We’ll see how he does in the Southwest. Medina Spirit has obscure names but definitely bred to go long. I went over his pedigree in week 1 or 2.
Royal Number appears to have the stride mechanics capable of negating the tiring effects of the winter surface at the Big A.
Todd Pletcher once dominated the 3YO KD Preps listed below. Particularly those in FL and NY. In 2019 and 2020 none of
these preps were won by horses from the Pletcher barn. This lead to the obvious question. Has Todd Pletcher lost his
Derby prep mojo?
The 2021 Derby Trail is still in its initial phase. Four of the preps below have already been contested and no TP horse
has emerged the winner.
Holy Bull – Greatest Honour
FOY –
FL Derby –
Sam Davis –
Tampa Bay Derby –
Withers –
Gotham –
Jerome – Capo Kane
Wood –
Le Comte – Midnight Bourbon
Risen Star – l
LA Derby –
Smarty Jones – Caddo River
Southwest –
Rebel –
AK Derby –
Given the Derby prep drought the Pletcher barn has been experiencing. Should horses from the barn be eliminated from the top spot in these races?
The Sam Davis and Withers will be contested on the weekend. TP will be represented by Overtook & Donegal Bay in the
Withers and Known Agenda & Millean in the Sam Davis. Both races appear to be very competitive and the Pletcher duo in each race are not very fast.
I am of the opinion his best shot to win lies in the Withers. The late turn of foot displayed by Overtook in maiden breaker, suggest he relishes the Big A surface. Very few horse have displayed such a closing kick on the deep and tiring surface.
The competition awaiting TP horses that venture to FG or OK Park is fiercer than that which exist in FL and NY.
It is conceivable that the TP barn will be shut out of KD preps for the third consecutive year?
Hidden Stash is 10-1 ml Sat….
If you have a hidden Hidden Stash buy some snake venom .
…gonna be moonwalking away from the cashier’s window tom, after ‘Stash pays me–for the third straight time!
I am of the opinion that Lucky Law who was purchased for 6 figure out of a breeze up sale and trained my Mr. Snake Venom Biancone, might prove to be the best of the lot.
He closed from mid pack with a wide move to finish <2L in a 5F turf complete in 56+. He again closed from mid pack to win over 8F. He gives every indication he will relish the 8 1/2 of the Sam Davis. If the can successfully transition to dirt. He might just be thon to beat.
How many in the field could have finished <2L off a 56+ time for F5F?
Runway Magic as a live longshot (ML 8-1) in the Sam Davis at TB Downs
The homebred lost 5 weeks ago in the Limehouse Stakes to Drain the Clock, who devoured the field — again — next out in the Swale Stakes. It wasn’t a bad effort for Runway Magic considering that he was turning back in distance after winning impressively in a 7f MSW at Churchill in which he earned a 91 Brisnet figure. The favorite that Runway Magic beat in the CD race, Outasite, came back to win his next race.
Runway Magic is by the young sire Runhappy (by Super Saver) out of an AP Indy mare.
He didn’t put up much of a run, as I remember…
Run Happy is over advertised and under represented in the KD Preps. He is an OK stallion but nothing special with his first crop.
Take Look at Lucky Law. He will be flying in the las 50 meters. He is trained by the Snake Venom man and likely powered by the product.
On a more serious note Biancone is a horseman. He went to the Goff Breeze Up Sale and secured the colt for $136K. The colt hasn’t displayed and explosive turn of foot in his 2 turf starts. His pedigree has a good amount of dirt influence. He might just be better on dirt.
Yes, Runhappy is “advertised” more than most new sires. So what?
He’s “underrepresented” because this is his first crop. Shall I explain how that works?
Haven’t you been warned about unsubstantiated accusations?
Hey Steve Hidden Stash is going…..
Yep I saw that. I just talked about him on Steve Byk’s show.
rail post nice—for a left- lead horse like Hidden Stash—-only .10 sec off the graded stakes on same card, and he was wide both turns, broke slow and ran on left lead down the lane….if he can put it together….sky could be his limit.
Well, he definitely needs to improve, but this is the breakout race for all these horses if they want to move on.
The rail post for a left lead horse maybe not so bad…when I was a kid, I remember reading about how Ben Jones put up chairs in the 2-path, and instructed Arcaro to try to stay inside with Whirlaway—who ran on his left lead most of the time….wanted Whirly to stay down there as much as possible–he couldn’t change the horse, so he tried to utilize his uniqueness….Cougar Ii also would make rail runs from behind–another who liked to stay on his left…..maybe Hidden Stash can use that rail to his advantage…..
Yes, Hidden Stash has improved exponentially from every race and willingly every time.
In case it factors into your handicapping, the Withers Stakes is not named for the highest part of a horse’s back. It was named for David Withers, an owner and breeder of the late 19th century.
The favorite in the Withers (the race, not the horse part) will certainly be Jerome Stakes winner Capo Kane. He’s not been headed in either of his two races at 1m and 1m & 70 yards. But he’ll likely be challenged by impressive maiden winner Donegal Bay and possibly by stakes winner Shackqueenking from Post 1 and state-bred stakes winner Eagle Orb from the outside post.
I’m giving a serious look at Chad Brown’s maiden winner Risk Taking. He’s had six 4f workouts spaced 6-8 days apart since December 28. I think he’ll run a big race at odds of at least 6-1.
If he runs big, wait until you read my comments next week about his pedigree. I am rooting for him just for that reason alone.
Cool! Thanks.
Expert breeder, Ogden “Dinny” Phipps, had a strong influence on Risk Takings tail-female side, going back to Private Account, Numbered Account, Con Game, Buckpassser and Bsanda. If you’re looking for class influence, look no further than the afore mentioned mares/stallions. I’m not surprised that Risk Taking is the morning line favorite, in the Withers, at 5/2.
Dinny Phipps….said people who frequent offtrack sites aren’t true Horse Racing fans, only gamblers—- some people have to go to their jobs, and back then off track sites were the only way some people could watch a race—let alone gamble on one….not everyone could get out to the track….besides, as Richard Dreyfus said in Let it Ride, ” if there’s no betting, there’s no racing…”….
Richard Dreyfus was spot on. With no racing fans in the stands over the past year, off-track betting sites have kept the sport of horse racing alive and well. I’ll be in attendance at an OTB facility, on Saturday, to place a few bets on the Withers and Sam F. Davis Stakes. I like Capo Kane in the Withers, and Known Agenda in the Sam F. Davis.
How often is a Chad Brown trained horse with a pedigree like that of Risk Taking, is sent off at 5/1 in a MSW?
His winning post time price might just be an indicator that his talent doesn’t match his pedigree.
I what appear to be a slow group, there are two likely scenarios. Capo Kane uses his speed to make all. Overtook closes with a flourish to tag him late.
A third scenario could be the tough Dhackqueenking track Capo Kane from close range and overhaul him late.
That price could just reflect the field strength was solid…
just like his mentor Bobby Frankel with those half mile works…..
Interesting!
Risk Taking is the morning line favorite, at 5/2.
Wow! I guess I can forget 6-1 odds. LOL
OVERTOOK – catch up with and pass while traveling in the same direction.
What’s in a word!
I have examined why I am not as high on Greatest Honour as are so many that support this space. I am not being dismissive of the colt’s impressive win in the HB. But rather I have placed his win in what I consider to be proper perspective.
I have acknowledged that the colt has an excellent KD pedigree. I am likewise a very big fan of the colt’s trainer. I am also well aware of Shug’s achievements in his chosen profession. But I cannot allow any of these factors to cloud my assessment of Greatest Honour. Neither does my respect for Steve’s wealth of knowledge, prevents me from disagreeing with some of his ranking decisions.
Ahead of the Holy Bull Steve’s referred to the renewal of the stakes as good allowance race. Assuming it was a serious assessment. How can he justify elevating the winner of a good allowance race to #1 and in so doing, relegate to #2, an undefeated Champion 2YO with two G1 on its resume?
I am well aware that Steve is being speculative and said speculation is driven by certain indicators he holds dear. But even the most bold speculator, doesn’t ignore pertinent facts. Acknowledging that Greatest Honour defeated a suspect field and then dismiss said acknowledgement in the decision making process, renders the decision flawed.
There is always an element of rick involved in speculation. Consequently, pertinent information must be carefully reviewed and analyzed ahead of speculating.
If the #5 ranked Caddo River who finished ahead of Greatest Honour twice over 7F, was in the HB filed. Would the additional 1 1/2F have allowed Greatest Honour to turn the table on Caddo River? The fact that Caddo River is ranked at #5 and GH at #1, suggests the additional 1 1/2F would have. Is this a reasonable and well developed speculation? Let’s see what the cold facts indicate.
In the colt’s two starts since they last met, Caddo River won twice over 8F by 9 1/2L & 10 1/4L. Greatest Honour was defeated over 9F by HD and won over 8 1/2F by 5 1/2L. Despite Caddo River’s two effortless wins over 8F by a combined 19 3/4L. The speculation is, he unlikely to finish ahead of Greatest Honour over 10F. The obvious question has to be. What are the indicators driving this speculation?
Caddo River’s pedigree doesn’t feature as much stamina as that of Greatest Honour. It is therefore reasonable to speculate that Greatest Honour would have an advantage over 10F. But there is a serious element of danger in this type of speculation. Speed is a thoroughbred’s major weapon. If speed can be maintained at 12 seconds per furlong for 10F, that’s usually good enough to win just about any KD with the exception of those won by Secretariat and Monarchos.
Smarty Jones’ pedigree was not viewed as featuring the stamina that Tapit’s pedigree featured. Smarty Jones had the tactical speed advantage. He used that tactical speed to win the KD on a sloppy surface and Tapit finished unplaced. Tiz The Law was viewed as having a better stamina pedigree than Authentic. But Authentic had better tactically speed. We all know who won the KD.
We are all currently involved in the speculation process. However, emotions and gut feelings shouldn’t inhibit the proper analysis pertinent fact
NB: Tapit has been represented by significantly more KD entrants than Hard Spun. Both stallions share a best finish by a progeny of 4th.
In my quest to find a decent priced Withers entrant to build my wager around I have landed on the oddly named Shackqueenking. In the era of a start every 30 days or more. This colt bucks the trend and must be consider primed for his 9F debut. See Below:
11/01/2020 – Debut MSW 6F ; 2nd by 2L
11/27/2020 – MSW 8 1/2F; 1st (26 days between starts)
12/13/2020 – AOC 8F; 2nd (16 days between starts)
12/26/2020 – Howard County Stakes 8 1/2F; 1st (13 days between starts)
01/16/2021 – Spectacular Bid Stakes 7F; 3rdt (21 days between starts)
His first of 2 wins was recorded over 8 1/2F on cloudy day and a fast surface at Laurel Park. His winning time was 1:46.01. His next win at the same venue on a clear day and fast surface was 1:44.36. The wins were a month apart. The difference in the winning time was approximately 1 2/3 seconds. His 5 starts have been at an average of 15.2 days between.
This colt won over 8 1/2F, 16 days after finishing 2nd over 8F. It is unlikely he was in hand whilst finishing 2nd. In fact, the post race summary indicates, that he showed good early speed whilst racing between rival and finished 2nd best. The colt must have been under strong urging to maintain 2nd.
It’s surprising that a Shackleford colt recorded 2 wins routing and 3 defeats over sprint and middle distances. His sire
Shackleford won the met mile in 1:33+. His dam sire Lawyer Ron had excellent cruising speed. He carry same well as denoted in his obliteration of the stakes and track record in the Whitney.
If this colt in indeed a router, he should be able to maintain a strong gallop over 9F. With 5 starts at an average of 15.2 days between starts. He appears to have the foundation and speed necessary to be competitive the Withers. If the ML favorite Capo Kane has an off day and the slow horses from the big stables, have not improved. Shackqueenking should have an excellent chance to grind out a victory at a decent price.
The above is an unwise way to handicap the winning chances of a Withers entrant. However, it is similarly unwise to ignore pertinent information.
I like him.
Hi Steve and all. Was thrilled to see Greatest Honour win the Holy Bull so handily. Totally agree with AK Says comment below that is indeed refreshing to see a horse this young in a simple snaffle and not all that head gear (shadow roll, tongue tiedowns, etc). I think that says a lot about this colt and his trainer.
For me Greatest Honour checks all the boxes…homebred, trainer, jockey, pedigree etc).
Just delighted to for Shug. He has always been one of my favorite trainers.
Thank you as always for the hard work and effort that goes into the list each week and thank you as well to Secretariat.com for hosting your column.
Thank you very much Lynda. So happy to see you here. Hoping its that as a regular. I love your reference to GH being a homebred. We dont see enough of that anymore.
Tiffany’s Honour’s return to the US would be quite prudent now.
Good luck with that. Returning from Japan is not the same as returning from Turkey.
True but should Greatest Honour continue his rise in prominence so to will the ‘commercial desire’ to repatriate Tiffany’s Honour.
Steve: So very glad to see your rankings this year: Derby season is much more interesting and profitable with your comprehensive overview of contenders. You have provided more than a few great futures overlays through the years!
I bet Essential Quality at 30-1 before the BC Juvenile, and have a few Bafferts; looking forward to the longer preps coming up.
Thanks very much. If you like what I have provided then I am sure you won’t mind giving me half that Essential Quality wager at 30-1. Seriously, that will assure you a fun ride to the Derby. Don’t fret if he gets beat by Jackie’s Warrior in the Southwest Stakes. As long as he runs his race and is closing strongly that’s all youre looking for right now. If he wins then you know he has made the transition from 2 to 3 and you are in great shape. We know he can adapt to any pace, so it wouldnt be a surprise if he won.
Does anyone fancy Sam Davis probable Doca Boy?
Boca Boy!!
Morning Facts
Boca Boy could wind up being the biggest longshot in the Sam Davis field. I fancy Smiley Sobotka for the win, who was 2nd to Keepmeinmind in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. On January 30th, Smiley Sobotka worked 4F, in 46.81, 2/118. He certainly appears ready to rock and roll in the Sam Davis. Known Agenda will probably give Smiley Sobotka all he can handle, but will come up a little short, IMO.
Thanks Bill,
Having reviewed Boca Boy’s PPs, I am of the opinion he is an excellent exacta prospect and a likely upset winner.
There doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed in the race. Your Smiley Sobotka isn’t as fast as Boca Boy. In fact, I think he will easily lead this field. He has much better stride mechanics than Smiley Sobotka and consequently covers ground with more efficiency.
He won on debut over 5 1/2F at 18/1. His next out start was in the Dr. Fager over 6F, where he found Breeze On By and Gatsby in mean modes and had to settle for 3rd. His 3rd start was surprisingly on turf over 8F, where finished 2nd. in his 4th start he was ignored at 16/1 in the 8 1/2F In Reality and he duly obliged with a gate to wire win.
Interestingly, his connection had targeted the Kentucky Jockey Club in which Smiley Sobotka finished 2nd. They certainly not afraid of either Smiley or Keepmeinmind. But he popped a splint and they had to back off and adders this issue. That was 4 months ago.
The trainer has stated the colt has grown and has filled out considerably. He was already a big fluent moving colt with an extremely high cruising speed. If he returns improve and much stronger. He must be a very dangerous entrant in a field devoid of serious speed.
Did you notice that all of his dirt starts, including his two wins, were on a sloppy track? Thunderstorms are expected in the Tampa area on Saturday!
Thanks for the reply Facts.
I can certainly understand your belief that Boca Boy will be a serious contender for win honors in the Sam Davis.
The morning line odds have just been posted on HRN, Boca Boy is listed at 15-1, in which case you would score a nice return if he wins, (and the odds remain relatively the same at post time). The two horses I mentioned, Smiley Sobotka and Known Agenda are listed as co-favorites, at 3-1. Based on Boca Boy’s two wins over a sloppy track, I would think he’s performance would be enhanced if the Tampa Bay Downs track winds up sloppy, on Saturday.
Both Smiley Sobotka and Boca Boy will have new riders in the saddle, whereas Known Agenda will retain the services of John Velazquez. I’m starting to lean towards Known Agenda.
Good luck Facts.
Greatest Honour is emerging as the strongest contender among the Derby hopefuls seen in action this January… Steve has declared the son of Tapit as the one that “certainly looked like a Derby horse” … few people are disputing that given the way he demolished the Holy Bull field and his solid upward trend in form.
With Claude McGaughey one can be confident that a top horse will be more than ready for a big date. The wonderful horsemanship of the owners supporting Shug allowed him to historically do the right things by the horses.
It is surprising that after 43 years of career, the Hall of Fame Trainer with innumerable Champions and G1 conquests, has only saddled eight (8) Derby entrants. Still he is not only among the top 10 active trainers with most Derby entrants but he is the most effective by far.
His Derby record reads 1 first, 2 seconds and 1 third place from 8 horses over only six (6) Derbies. Fifty percent in the Derby money says a lot about how to make a difference. Sometimes I wonder what would have been the Derbies if all the trainers were more selective when sending horses to the Derby …
McGaughey’s first Derby entrants were Vanlandingham and Pine Circle in 1984. The former got injured during the race and finished 16th and the latter showed a decent late charge to finish 6th . Shug’s wise hand and fecund patience made Vanlandingham a champion the following year. That has been his trademark; letting his horses develop steadily and surely so as to let them reach their full potential. He never presumed to twist the funnel of time and force any young horse to be a mere presence in the Derby.
Seeking the Gold was his Derby horse in the exceptional crop of 1988 but a 7th there was the only blemish in the quasi-perfect campaign of the son of Mr. Prospector.
Then in 1989 came the best 3-year-old he ever trained. Easy Goer who encountered another all-time great in Sunday Silence. Easy Goer was second in the Derby with his stable mate, Awe Inspiring coming in 3rd .
Thirteen years after that highest-earning year came another Derby participant for Shug named Saarland who finished 10th. But 2013 was his year with Orb taking the Roses. The last accomplishment was in 2019 with Code of Honor promoted to second.
In case you are wondering about his Derby gaps we should remember that McGaughey’s conservative approach, sometimes injuries, bad behavior or not enough earnings has prevented horses like Strolling Along (1993), Our Emblem (1994), Roar (1996), Gold Fever (1996), Accelerator (1997), Coronado’s Quest (1998) and Honor Code (2015) to reach the most important race in America.
Greatest Honour and Shug McGaughey are like a rainbow of rightness appearing in the Derby Sky
Bring Essential Quality and Caddo River !!!!!
Your short reply is rather provocative.
I do not share Steve’s views regarding Greatest Honour for several reasons. His elevation to the #1 slot is premature at best. The colt facts support my assertion.
ESSENTIAL QUALITY:
He defeated graded stakes winners; graded stakes runner-ups and ungraded stake winners en-route to his BCJ victory. Keepmeinmind who was twice defeated by EQ, subsequently won the Kentucky Club stakes. Hot Rod Charlie the runner-up in the BCJ returned to finish 3rd in the Bob Lewis.
Which of Greatest Honour opponents from the Holy Bull appears capable of wining or placing in a graded stakes? Let’s assume Sittin On Go the winner of the G3 Iroquois. He was beaten 12 1/4L by EQ in the BCJ. He was fresh off his impressive Iroquois. win. He was beaten 17L by GH off a dull 6th place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
CADDO RIVER:
The subject colt defeated Greatest Honour twice albeit over 7F. Subsequent to defeating GH for the 2nd time, he broke his maiden over 8F at CD by 9 1/2L in a brisk 1:35.22. In Greatest Honour next start he was beaten over 9F by Known Agenda who was subsequently beaten by 9L in the Remsen.
The Hard Spun colt won the ungraded Smarty Jones by 8L. The runner up was Cowan who finished 2nd to the #3 ranked Senor Buscador in the Springboard Mile. No entrant in the HB field has ever finished 2nd to any of the top 5 horses above.
Brad Cox two horses have proven to be far superior runners to Greatest Honour. Substitute either for Greatest Honour in the HB and the win margin would likely have been larger.
I understand that Steve is of the opinion Greatest Honour’s running style and stamina laden pedigree, makes him an ideal Derby horse.. I concur with his opinion. However, I do not consider him fast enough to win the KD in this Derby class. His win in the HB over a modest field, hardly qualifies him to so do.
Tiz The Law was feasting on modest oppositions and doing so impressively. He retained the #1 ranking heading into the KD. When he met Authentic a colt with comparable speed, he was defeated.
How will Greatest Honour win the KD? Is he going to run by Essential Quality? This is unlikely as the fellow Tapit colt is much faster and much classier. Is EQ stamina deficient? His powerful finish in the BCJ suggest otherwise..
Shug McGaughey is a great trainer who can bring the best out of a talented horse.. However, Brad Cox seems to have the Midas Touch at the moment. Shug’s Code Of Honor was no match for Cox’s Knicks Go in the Pegasus. Cox has the hot hands and the better Tapit colt.
If Steve is so high on Greatest Honour. The right thing was to make him joint #1. He cannot justify elevating him above EQ.
I believe TTL would have been the best the first Saturday in May. He peaked in the Travers. He might have come back and been a monster as a 4 yr old, but sadly, we will have only speculation there. He was a deserving 1st last year.
At this stage of the game, its largely guess work, and thus placing a less accomplished but well respected horse first is acceptable. We will be following him a few more starts before we get to May and he may go down and others up depending. Besides, it adds drama and fun to the list 🙂
Indeed Diana! you are kind of reading my mind as I was about to write pretty much the same thing.
Only adding that there are trainers most capable of making horses ready to take greater training load and hence have them in peak form at the right time.
Diana, there is absolutely no doubt that Tiz the Law would have won a regularly scheduled Kentucky Derby. I would bet any amount of money on that! 🙂
I concur with all the points you have made.
Good post, Nelson. Are they your tremendous trio thus far?
Thanks Davids. Yes.. you could say that those are my top three horses overall. But we should always keep a watchful eye on the horses from the West …!
Nelson, thanks for the excellent review (and the celestial metaphors) of The Patient One’s Derby record. Greatest Honour’s similarities to Orb are interesting.
Debut: Orb, finished 3rd in 7f MSW at Saratoga on August 18; GH, finished 3rd in 7f MSW at Saratoga on August 8
First win: Orb, in 4th try, on November 24 at 8f; GH, in 4th try, on December 26 at 8.5f
First race after breaking maiden: Orb, won 9f NW1x at GP on January 26 at odds of $2.40-1; GH, won 8.5f G3 stakes at GP on January 30 at odds of $2.80-1
Orb’s top Brisnet speed rating was a 102 in his Fountain of Youth Stakes win. GH earned his best rating so far, a 103, in the Holy Bull win. Both colts showed similar running styles in their first 5 races (except for Orb’s debut when he was “off very slow”).
It’ll be interesting to see if Shug enters GH in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby.
Good point you are making there Eddie. Shug was asked about the similarities to Orb in their early campaigns and in physique. Orb won an Allowance race for his 3-year-old debut and went straight to the Stakes and Greatest Honour debuted in a Stakes as a sophomore. But from there on it could be a carbon copy campaign for the new prospect…
Similar campaigns are expected as McGaughey takes pretty much the same route with the good ones.. some times he goes to the Champagne if he thinks the horse is ready.
Even the training regime was particularly alike for both horses.
He also said that physically the two horses are very different …
Another curiosity is that Shug’s three last Derby horses got Honor in their names (Honor Code, Code of Honor and Greatest Honour)
I’m waiting for his next Derby hopeful, Izzy Honor.
I hope Coldfacts reads your post. I wish I had as well, you would have been quoted at length. Ha ha
There’s still time. 😉
You’re right. I’ll copy, paste and quote.
Excellent! 🙂
I did read his post.
my reply was in relation to his short reply to his post.
Lots of great information here Nelson. Well done. Wanna be my researcher?
LOL … I am just studying Fundamentals of IT at the University of Calgary to be more proficient at extracting stats, figures and facts from different databases and sources. Right now it is mostly manual searching.
I will be more than happy to be of service to the best Turf Writer in America…!
I appreciate the glowing praise, but I still wouldnt be able to pay you, unless you can make it from Calgary to NJ to work on my ancient laptop.
LOL ! There is something called the Cloud which makes you pretty much omnipresent … no need to be in front of your laptop… anything can be sent to your computer from anywhere.
But Digitization of all your old papers would require someone there though !
And BTW no fees charged if the job takes less than an hour…
The only thing about the Cloud I can relate to is when it comes to computers, thats where my head is.
Another reason I devote time to Askin’ Haskin … I get a good laugh at any moment; sometimes about good jokes some other times about opinions…
Edit: always good laughs about good jokes and sometimes about certain opinions
You need a good agent. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Thank you, very nice write-up on Shug!
So glad you’re back thanks so much steve you make the derby season so much more fun !!
I appreciate it Nick. Thank you
Hey Steve~ How’ve you been? Very ni ce analysis. I wanted to just ask what you thought of Prevalence’s last performance? I know it’s very early on for him, but just wondered.
Hi Bill, I wrote aboout him a couple of weeks ago and below on one of the comments but basically he obvously was very impressive, surprising even his trainer. He sure did it the right way, but they would have to likely run him in the Derby off only 3 career starts and none at 2 and that is really pushing him. Justify is the only horse to ever pull that off and Baffert works his horses hard and gives them a foundation and he was a auperstar. And Godolphin already has 2 legit Derby contenders so why push him? But we’ll see what he does vs winners going two turns.
Steve, listening to Shug McGaughey’s exuding confidence during the post race interview after Greatest Honour’s stylish win in the Holy Bull Stakes, didn’t surprising me that you have rocketed the colt to No. 1. McGauchey isn’t one to blow kisses to the fans or over exaggerate the talent his colt might or might not have but I doubt he’d swap any other colt for the one he has. Frankly, stating, that 10f is not a problem, nor missing one prep for a later prep, gives you the reassurance that Greatest Honour is a serious Derby contender. I’m a believer, and have watched this colt progress over time. Just stay healthy.
Thoroughly enjoyed you analysis Steve, as always. There is a group I’m following while the others I take your word for it. Good stuff and the best read all week. The Reds, caught my eye as well, we’ll see. California is a bit of a mystery with that slow track, either they’re very good or just average. Time will tell.
Thank you David. Please dont take my word for it. you know the saying “it takes a horse to make a person look like an ass.” We’re all just guessing and speculating most of the time. Just focus on the group youre following and maybe just keep the rest in the back of your mind..
That’s so true, Steve. “We’re all just guessing” but some guess better than others – luck. Ha ha I know it’s way too early but watching Greatest Honour in the Holy Bull Stakes you saw exactly what you wanted to see. There was never a moment of concern, it was by how far. As you wrote “classy horse.” Essential Quality has a real challenge in Greatest Honour.
Hi Davids! Agree that at this point in time EA’s challenge will be GA. These two are my favorites to win the Derby.
Hi Lynda, as much as I like Essential Quality, in the back of my mind the pedigree is not screaming 10f. Not that Essential Quality won’t be able to run a strong 10f, seeing is believing. With Greatest Honour, you sense the colt is reaching for further distance every time.
I agree with you on both points.
One thing I enjoy doing is rewatching a race and just observing the horse’s body language. I think we can learn a lot about the horse.
GH was very relaxed. As he was driving down the stretch he had one ear back and one forward but relaxed. This is usually a good indication that he was “listening” to Irad. After he crossed the finish line his ears were pricked forward.
He just won that race so easily and as you said he gives one the impression that he is reaching for further distance.
Just in passing, Proxy is another Tapit that shows quite a lot of promise with a strong pedigree. As Steve has mentioned, if only he had a more experienced jockey aboard. The whip use has been overzealous and detrimental to the colt’s progress.
In the Sam F. Davis, Hidden Stash is an interesting colt on the improve, in the Withers Eagle Orb has a chance to prove he is more than a sprinter. Enjoy the races.
David,
I desperately try to understand why statements are made.
“Shug McGaughey’s exuding confidence during the post race interview after Greatest Honour’s stylish win in the Holy Bull”
Steve ranked the colt at #1 after his HB win. Prior to the HB he classified the race as good allowance. Given the quality of the horses that defeated Greates Honour. He was one of the favorite and should have been the favorite given his form and foundation advantage. Any really talented horse would score a comfortable win over that modest field? Why classify his win as stylish given composition of the field?
Nick Zito cried after Dialed In won the Holy Bull citing the how special the colt was. was that an expression of emotion? Dialed in had two races earlier won the Holy Bull as a last out debut winner. It didn’t take him 4 start to break his maiden. After the praises showered on Dial In he finished of the board in the KD.
“I’m a believer, and have watched this colt progress over time.”
GH was twice defeated by Caddo River. Have you been monitoring Caddo River’s progress over time? He recently won the Smarty Jones by 10 1/4L. I guess Caddo River hasn’t made you a believer..
There absolute nothing worn with being high on Greatest Honour. There is nothing likewise wrong with keeping things in perspective.
Coldfacts, I’m not sure how closely you followed Orb’s progression from a 2 year old to Kentucky Derby winner but it would suit you well in understanding the progression Greatest Honour is making at this stage. There are various training regimens employed in advancing young colts to perform better next time out.
I find your referencing to Caddo River beating Greatest Honour last year as valueless and somewhat naive. Those 7f races are/were just educational for a colt that is bred to run 10f or longer. Caddo River might just get 10f but no further, even though I have stated in previously that Pangburn was better than her race record, but at that distance Greatest Honour would have a gross advantage.
As for the ‘believer’ comment, that confidence comes from watching the preeminence of the Best in Show family win major races the world over. Moreover, Greatest Honour appears not to have any of the negative traits that some Tapit progeny have. Will Greatest Honour win the Kentucky Derby, who knows, but he certainly has the class to do so.
Good luck with spotting an outsider to take the roses. There are many ways of enjoying the Derby Trail.
Greatest Honour’s similarities to Orb are interesting.
Coldfacts, EddieF has kindly provided a sequential pattern of progression by Orb and Greatest Honour so you are able to follow Shug MCGaughey’s method of advancement in preparing them for a possible assault on the Kentucky Derby:
“Debut: Orb, finished 3rd in 7f MSW at Saratoga on August 18; GH, finished 3rd in 7f MSW at Saratoga on August 8
First win: Orb, in 4th try, on November 24 at 8f; GH, in 4th try, on December 26 at 8.5f
First race after breaking maiden: Orb, won 9f NW1x at GP on January 26 at odds of $2.40-1; GH, won 8.5f G3 stakes at GP on January 30 at odds of $2.80-1
Orb’s top Brisnet speed rating was a 102 in his Fountain of Youth Stakes win. GH earned his best rating so far, a 103, in the Holy Bull win. Both colts showed similar running styles in their first 5 races (except for Orb’s debut when he was “off very slow”).”
Steve just stumbled across your Derby ranking when I thought the Bloodhorse ranking was weak. Good to read your more nuanced ranking. I was super impressed with Prevalence as a KD candidate off his maiden win. Think Jackie’s Warrior is the most obvious throw out but looking forward to your updates. Noticed your mentions of Dennis O’ Neill and as someone who was on I’ll Have Another with both hands as well as on Nyquist I don’t understand why this guy isn’t picking out yearlings for guys with really big bucks given so many of their purchases turn out to be duds! Does Tapit (Greatest Honour) finally get a Derby winner after years of gilt edged broodmare combos? Tapits typically don’t have the turn time speed to win the Derby – more Belmont grinders but maybe Shug’s charge can get it done.
Thanks, Jerry, so are you saying we got you on the rebound? LOL. That’s OK, glad to have you here. Hope you keep coming back. Prevalence surprised even his trainer with that performance, but can they squeeze more than 3 starts in him before the Derby? I doubt it. Running in the Derby off 3 career starts and none at 2 is asking a lot of a horse. Baffert can pull it off because of how hard he trains his horses and the fact he had a superstar, who did not make it past the Belmont. And Godolphin right now already has two legit Derby contenders. My feeling with Dennis is that he is a cancer survivor and just enjoys picking out horses for his brother to train. Just my opinion. If Tapit doesnt get it with these two I dont know if he ever will.
Steve, in your initial ranking, you gave a brief mention of Nova Rags and said you’d write more about him the following week. I’ve not seen anything to date. He’s probable for the Sam F Davis in what should be a big field. I like his pedigree for the Derby distance (dam sire Smart Strike gave us Mine That Bird!), but I don’t know what to make of his lackluster effort in the Nashua Stakes at odds of 5-2.
I texted Mott and he never got back to me. Then I forgot to follow up on him, sorry. Oh well. We’ll find out on Saturday.
Yup. One dud can be excused, but two strikes you’re out on the Derby trail. 🙂 The colt should be in good form in his second start after the layoff.
If I get that second strike who you gonna follow every week if I’m out?
No chance of that happening. Pitchers would rather walk you intentionally. Likes they did with Bonds in his chemically enhanced period. 🙂
Senor Buscador
The subject colt was a last out winner of the the Remington Springboard Mile. None of the top 3 finishers in the previous 11 renewal of the race, have hit the board in the Kentucky. Given the aforementioned , the #3 ranking assigned to this colt, even at this early phase of the Derby Trail, seems high.
Senor Buscador’s best opponent in the Springboard Mile emerges as Cowan. This Steve Asmussen trained Cowan finished 2nd in his previous two starts. Subsequent to the Springboard Mile, he again finished 2nd in the Smarty Jones to Caddo River. Cowan has fished 2nd to four different opponents in consecutive races.
Senor Buscador defeated Cowan by 5 3 1/4L over a mile. Caddo River defeated Cowan by 10 1//4L over the same distance. He also defeated Greatest Honour twice.
Senor Buscador is ranked at #3 and Caddo River ranked at #5. I am a bit confused.
Can you please stop posting your comments twice. It’s annoying.
Steve, I’m beginning to think Coldfacts was Edward Everett in a past life( the guy who spoke for 2 hours before Lincoln at the Gettysburg Address)
Senor Buscador
The subject colt was a last out winner of the the Remington Springboard Mile. None of the top 3 finishers in the previous 11 renewal of the race, have hit the board in the Kentucky. Given the aforementioned , the #3 ranking assigned to this colt, even at this early phase of the Derby Trail, seems high.
Senor Buscador’s best opponent in the Springboard Mile emerges as Cowan. This Steve Asmussen trained Cowwa fininied 2nd in his 2 raxe preceding the Spring biord Miler colt
JOE MAN JOE
I am interested to know why anyone would acquire a yearling for $225,000 and select the subject name. Well, to each his own. Apart from the weir name for a reasonably expensive yearling. What’s significant about the 3YO colt?
He is probable for the Sam Davis. He was sired by Uncle Mo and is out Charmeuse by Peaks And Valleys . There is no Mr. Prospector in his first 5 generations and Norther Dancer appears only in his 5th. His mare deserves special mention based on the level at which performed and her age. See below:
DOB – Feb 19, 1999.
17 Starts, 4 Wins, 2 Places, 6 Shows Career Earnings: $359,585
At 3: Won Black-Eyed Susan S (G2, Pim,9F); 2nd Mother Goose S (G1, Bel,9F);3rd Fair Grounds Oaks (G2, 8.5F), Fantasy S (G2, Oaklawn P,8.5F), Silverbulletday S (G3, Fair Grounds,8.5F)
When Charmeuse was in foal with the subject colt she was 18YO. Joe Man Joe might just be her final foal. One has to hope that old girl’s possible last foal emerges a stakes winner..
After being beaten like a rented mule in his first 4 starts, Joe Man Joe turned up at Tampa Bay . In 2 starts at the location he has recorded a win and a 2nd place finish on turf. Given he fetched $225K, he must have checked some boxes.
In his last 2 efforts he closed with a rush from last. In that has often produces surprises. If this colt could run to his pedigree and purchase price. He could be in the mix when its being decided.
Steve enjoyed your articles particularly the 3 year old ratings for years. Thank you for finding way to continue.
I am a big Oaklawn guy, and it is being reported here that both Jackie’s Warrior, and Essential Quality will be entered in the Southwest. Caddo River to await Rebel, and Keepmeinmind to go in Southwest as well. If this is correct should be quite a race. Also being reported Senor Buscator to risen Star.
Totally agree with McGaughey horse moving to first. Thanks again
Yes, I have spoken with Brad Cox and Scott Blasi about both horses. I can understand those moves, but makes no sense to ship Essential Quality to Oakllawn to run against Jackie’s Warrior when the Risen Star looks like a more logical spot unless he just doesnt want to run him against Mandaloun. I wrote about Senor Buscador going to Risen Star in the first Derby Rankings
With those two trainers, their cruising speed will keep them going twice around the track if needed.
What’s the latest on Get Her Number?
Winning Brisnet speed ratings
for Holy Bull Stakes – 103
for Robert B. Lewis Stakes – 94
Bob B said there are some really nice three year olds out at Santa Anits this year….I was impressed by Greatest Honor…I don’t think he beat much…the Lewis had three on the wire—they were well clear of 4th place, it may turn out to be a key race..
What’s the latest on Get Her Number?
She wouldn’t give me the time of day!…..I think I heard he’s going to run in an upcoming stakes race…west coast has some nice ones this year—not sure about east—mid-month will have several nice ones running at Oaklawn….
I thought Greatest Honour was good, hope to see Prime Factor stay on the trail. He finished in a decent time and made his big move at the right time after a pace collapse, something that happens a lot in the Derby. I thought the Lewis race was weak, very slow time in spite of the slow track, and a blanket finish is weak, according to experts who have made that comment when one of my picks has won in like fashion.
I forgot to mention that being able to maintain a racing style at successively longer distances is the hard part. None of them so far seem to exude this ability, just don’t think it’s that great a crop. But I feel closers always have a chance in that regard, they often “hang around” in longer races. I’m not sure who that is this year.
We’ve had a few blanket fnishes this year, which makes it harder to assess this crop. Normally you dont like to see that. So far there hasnt been a “blow you away” horse in a two-turn race.
Thanks for your response.
PATRICK BIANCONE – HE IS BACK WITH ANOTHER TURF TO DIRT ENTRANT FOR THE SAM F DAVIS
The subject trainer won the 2020 renewal of the Sam F Davis with Sole Volante whose previous two career starts were on turf. He will attempt to win the 2021 renewal with another entrant whose previous two career starts were likewise on turf. That entrant is Lucky Law.
This colt has an interesting pedigree. His sire No Nay Never is a son Scat Daddy the sire of TC winner Justify. In his short career, No Nay Never was restricted to sprints on turf and synthetic. But made his sole dirt effort in the Swale Stakes in which he finished 2nd.
It appears No Nay Never has emerged as a top class stallion. Sell below:
Entered stud in 2015 at Coolmore Stud, Ireland.
2019 fee raised from €25.000 to €100.000.
2020 fee: €150.000
To command a stud fee of €150.000 with a sprinter’s resume, suggest the progenies of No Nay Never have been performing at the highest levels. But being based in Ireland those progenies have been performing on turf. No Nay Never does have dirt influence in his pedigree. His sire Scat Daddy won the Champagne, FOY & FL Derby. His dam sire Elusive Quality won on both dirt and turf.
Lucky Law’s dam sire Singspiel. There isn’t a lot of information on his dam she was probably unraced. However, dam sire Singspiel had career earnings of $5M+ and was a mega router on turf at highest level who also proved he was just as proficient on dirt when he switched to surface to win the Dubai World Cup.
So Lucky Law is the product of top class stallion with a sprinter’s profile out of a dam sired by a top class router on turf and dirt. A perfect combination of speed and stamina.
The Patrick Bianco Sam Davis possible, finished 2nd on debut by 11/4L over 5F completed in a fast 56.68. He won next out over 8F in a decent 1:36.46 closing from 5L off the pace.
What does the colt have instore for us on dirt? I am very exited to see. Who knows he could be mentioned in the KOTD in week 4.
Came across Lucky Law last night and was impressed with what I saw. Pedigree is all grass but he’s worked fast on dirt and he showed excellent acceleration in his last, not once but twice. I have a call in to Biancone. Waiting to hear back from him.
Speaking of turf to dirt….was impressed with Rock Your World in early Jan, he is stunning looking, and he won for fun….on turf….wonder if they might get Derby fever….not a lot for three year olds on turf this time of year….
Greatest Honour looked fantastic and caught me off guard with the Win in Florida. I am still fairly in favor of Life’s Good, but Liked what I saw in The Holy Bull and hope Mr Baffert plans to run Life’s Good in the San Felipe, I think he may be the Derby Horse and with Mr Baffert training the odds are there. I am watching Chad Brown’s Highly Motivated, I liked the look of him on work out I watched. The Great One agree he seemed pretty young at first, and Caddo River- huge fan of Hard Spun, so all of his goals when the get on the track- I sit up straight and see if we’ll get a show
Life is Good is pointing for the San Felipe.
I focus a lot on history as it relates to the Kentucky Derby. How significant is KD history? Not very significant! But I find it useful.
It appears Tapit is likely to be represented by 3 progenies in the 2021 KD. Others are likely to emerge.
Essential Quality – Champion 2YO
Greatest Honour – Holt Bull G3 winner
Proxy – 3rds Lecomte G3.
When a stallion has multiple entrants in the KD. Has any ever emerged the winner? Well, to extensively research same would be exhaustive. However, relatively recent history might be able to provide a guide.
In the 2016 renewal of the KD, Tapit was represented by 3 entrants:
Mohaymen- 4th
Lani – 9th
Creator – 13th
Of the three, Mohaymen was the fastest entering and exited with the best finish. Interestingly, Mohaymen won the 2016 Holy Bull. He entered the Holy Bull undefeated in 3 starts with two of his win recorded in G2 stakes i.e., Nashua & Remsen. Like the 2021 Holy Bull winner Greatest Honour, Mohaymen was the only entrant in the HB that had previously made a start over 9F.
It appear that of the top 3 Tapit progenies on the Derby Trail, Essential Quality is the fastest. Will he like Mohaymen record the best effort? And will it be good enough for a win?
Time will tell.
I focus a lot on history as it relates to the Kentucky Derby. How important is history is KD history? Not very! But I find it useful.
It appears Tapit is likely to be represented by either 3 or probably 4 progenies in the 2021 KD.
Essential Quality – Champion 2YO
Greatest Honour – Holt Bull G3 winner
Proxy – 3rds Lecomte G3.
When a stallion has multiple entrants in the KD. Has any ever emerged the winner? Well, to extensively research same would be exhausting. However, relatively recent history might be able to provide a guide.
In the 2016 renewal of the KD, Tapit was represented by 3 entrants:
Mohaymen- 4th
Lani – 9th
Creator – 13th
Of the 3, Mohaymen was the fastest entering and recorded the best finish. Interestingly, Mohaymen won the 2016 Holy Bull. He entered the Holy Bull undefeated in 3 starts with two of his win recorded in two G2 takes i.e., Nashua & Remsen. Like the 2021 Holy Bull winner Greatest Honour, Mohaymen was the only entrant that had previously made a start over 9F.
It appear that of the top 3 Tapit progenies of the Derby Trailrail, Essential Quality is the fastest. Will he like Mohaymen record the best effort? And will it be good enough for a win?
Time will tell.
So delighted you placed Greatest Honour at #1. I too, like his professionalism and pedigree. I especially like that he’s being raced without a tongue tie and in a simple snaffle, which tells me he’s responsive to light hands and to being rated And wouldn’t it be ironic if a non-gray son of Tapit won the Derby?
“wouldn’t it be ironic if a non-gray son of Tapit won the Derby?”
The above could be interpreted that a grey son of Tapit had previously won the KD. The best finishes recorded in the KD by Tapit progenies are listed below:
Normandy Invasion – Bay (4th)
Frosted – Roan/Gray (4th)
Mohaymen – Roan/Gray (4th)
“The above could be interpreted that a grey son of Tapit had previously won the KD.”
The above could be interpreted as the result of being dropped on the head during infancy.
I’ll be sure to use him in the Superfecta, then.
Good points. Thats one of the reasons I like hm, how responsive he is. you can place him anywhere and he adjusts to the pace and when you ask him he responds.
From what I’ve noticed, the Tapit bays in particular and the chestnuts seem to focus better than some greys. Yes, Greatest Honour can easily be threaded through the field with little persuasion. Good mind.
Excellent 3rd list Steve
For me it is still Caddo River & Life is Good
You are usually spot on regarding your picks so I will keep an open mind.
Two colts with high cruising speed would be logical if not for the abundance of speed in the upper echelon of the division.
With those two trainers, their cruising speed will keep them going twice around the track if needed.
Young horses have to be taught to rate. You can’t have 10 lightening bolts fly out of the gate and expect them to carry that speed for 10 furlongs.
Good trainers know how to get their horses to rate.
I am not concerned that Caddo River & Life is Good have a high cruising speed. This time of year is about getting these youngs 3 year olds ready for the big dance.
LOL, ok. That Authentic and Knicks Go really know how to rate. 46 half, 109 3/4 and they finish like Easy Goer. Great trainers that Bob and Brad are. Bobby with another fine today, disgracing a classic race. These clowns need to go. Jokers.
Great Derby Rankings as always Steve — thanks so much for all of your work on this!!
I have a question…cannot recall if you have addressed this before…but I wonder if the Derby points system impacts your rankings in any fashion? I find that I keep an eye on the points standings a bit more than I want to; that is, I sometimes rank an impressive contender a bit lower than I should (or would have previously) if they have not racked up many points. And I have a hard time deciding what to do with a horse I don’t favor who has many points. Not sure if I am expressing myself clearly on this — but something seems different (not for the better) over the past several years with this system.
Thanks Steve. The points have zero mpact on me at this point because the vast majority of points are not until March and if a horse cannot any points then and in the final 100 point preps then they probably shouldnt be in the Derby. So there is ample time to earn points if your horse is good enough
I gasped a bit when I saw Senor Buscador do his Zenyatta impression. I really like him, but not sure if the speed is there to catch the likes of Essential Quality. Life is Good looks wonderful at this poínt in time as well.
Essential Quality isnt a speed horse and I am old school, always believing the Derby will have a fast enough pace. It used to be extremely rare for a horse to win the Derby on the lead. right now I am trying to find the best horses and then we;ll see how they run in the major preps. Look at the year Orb won. The first 3 finishers came from like 17th 18th and 19th. You never know.
These guys with the magic potion get horses to go 6F in sub 110 then win drawing away. It is rather INCREDIBLE how much better they are than the old guard of trainers.
My top three are Midnight Bourbon, Greatest Honour, and Roman Centurion. MB because I loved Tiznow. The other two, Phipps breeding and Shug. Doesn’t get much classier.
It not often a Seeking The Gold mare is represented on the Derby Trail.
If my recollection is correct Blame was the last top class dirt horse that was out of a Seeking The Gold mare. Point Of Entry was the last top class turf horse out of a Seeking The Gold mare.
I am likewise high on Roman Centurian.
Great list and yes, I think Greatest Honour belongs in first right now. That was
a wonderful 4 wide run on his part. As Shug said to his wife (paraphrasing)
“now comes the pressure.” Happy he has another good one and Baffert’s Medina
Spirit hung on and didn’t let the competition by him. Also impressive. We have some really
interesting horses for the Derby this year. Rest of the list looks perfect where they are
placed.
Hi Paula. Good to see many of the regulars who posted on the BH site now following Steve here.
Hope all is well with you and your family!
Hello Steve, I just read a comment from a fan that saw an interview of Bill Mott. Mott said that Speakers corner has added muscle and is training lights out behind the scenes. Should be returning to the races soon. Hopefully time to get him onto the Derby trail. Still holding hope for Speakers Corner who I bet at 29-1 in KDFW1. He rolled by Caddo River in November, so the talent is there. Good call on Greatest Honour Steve, you pegged him right.
That’s great news. I had texted Bill about him and he never answered me I will try again. He beat Caddo River and Greatest Honour in the same race. Not sure what soon is, but with no recorded works sice November we’re talking at least a month unless he’s been sneakily working at some remote traning center. And hes never been two turns
I have a good eye for useless, but interesting, information — and I just found some in Greatest Honour’s PPs. GH has had five races. All but one race had 9 runners; the other had 8. The interesting details are that in all 5 races he was (a) 7th at the first call and (b) no less than 3 3/4 lengths and no more than 5 1/4 lengths behind the leader at the first call. It’s rare to see that kind of consistency in young Derby hopefuls. More likely than not the streak will end with his next race . . . particularly if it’s a field of 6 or fewer. 🙂
Thats some research. What makes it even more important regarding the lengths behind is that those were in sprints and two turn races.
Thanks Steve for the in depth review. Just curious, what was the minor setback for Life is Good? I understand if you can’t say.
Some traners dont want things made public, although no need for that here. Its not a big deal but trainers are very insecure and protective. Lets just say it starts with the letter “M”
Muscle strain?
Not that kinf of setback
Molluscum contagiosum?
That must be it
I’m currently studying for my derm final and this comment made me literally LOL. Hat tip to Eddie
Good luck on the exam.
Baffert’s -phantom unraced superstar Bezos worked 5 furlongs this morning in :58 4/5. I would think he’ll be in the entries next weekend but this is really pushing it to make the Derby. We’ll see what distance he’ll debut at. If it’s 7f or a mile he might have some shot if they want to push him like they did with Justify. But that was a rarity.
The SA condition book has a 6.5f MSW for this coming Sunday. Entries close on Thursday.
Thats probably it, but its not gonna help him get to the Derby starting off that short this late. But Bafferts horses all have a strong foundation before they run. I still wouldnt bet hm. Baffert never once even hinted to me he was his best horse. He did name his best three .
Life is Good work today was impressive today as well. Studying workouts for decades, this was a site to see…Lookout….
Almost identical to his last work which I loved. I see what Baffert is doing.
Thanks for moving Greatest Honour up to the top ranking. He’s the three year old with a great foundation, a great trainer, and a terrific rider. And what a pedigree. His broodmare sire, Street Cry, has produced not only a son that won the Derby (Street Sense) but a grandson (Maximum Security) who finished first in the Derby.
Jose Ortiz rode GH as a yearling and has said that the great horsemanship by Shug McGaughey was responsible for his development into the horse he is today. I just love that Jose Ortiz has been riding on this horse for so long.
It’s very interesting that it was a Darley Double sire and broodmare sire in the races leading up to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks on the day of the Holy Bull. In the Forward Gal, Zaagel won; her sire is Street Sense. Actually, it might be a Darley Triple as Holy Bull stood at Darley.
Thanks for continuing on with your Derby rankings. It’s been wonderful following your informative and well written columns.
Good stuff, Terri, thank you
You are quite welcome. The comments by Jose Ortiz were made after the Holy Bull on TVG.
I cannot believe they let Greatest Honour go at 5-2! I was so sure he’d be chalk, as he was ML – so I slept through the race! (I’d been up all night doing some on line theater stuff with connections in Japan). Still was a thrill to watch him run, though, even if I missed the bet
As they say in Journalism, you burried the lead. Forget Greatest Honour, I want to know more about doing online theater stuff with connections in Japan. Now you have me intrigued.
It’s not all that interesting I’m afraid, to most people. I know some people involved with Takarazuka women’s theater and occasionally help them with promotion here in the west, do a newsletter and such. With the virus such a concern there’s not been a whole lot going on, so not much to actually promote. Just trying to keep it in minds for when travel becomes an option again
Hi Steve
It was good to see Drain the Clock make the KOTD segment. He’s a colt that I’ve been very high on for several weeks.
The FOY will certainly be a good test for distance, moving forward. Judging by the way he was drawing off in the 7F Swale Stakes, (geared down), I would think the 8.5F distance is within his scope. However, the other Maclean’s Music colt on the Derby trail, Jackie’s Warrior, yielded in the stretch, to finish a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile, so both of these colts could be destined for sprint races. The Southwest will provide the answer on Jackie’s Warrior’s future, and the FOY for Drain the Clock’s future. Stay tuned.
BTW, great read on your Sweet 16 analysis. I’m just wondering if the Sweet 16 will be remain the format throughout the prep races leading up to the Derby, or will you go back to the Derby Dozen at sometime down the road?
Thank you Bill. That is why I enjoy doing this on Secretariat.com. I can do it anyway I like depending on the amount of activity and movement. If there a lot of preps and I have write longer commnts I could cut it back to 12. But in most cases as we get to know all these horses from previous comments I probably will make it 15 or 16 and shorten the comments and prrovide more content in the Knocking on the Door section. In other words I will play it by ear each week and see what looks like it will be more appealing to the readers.
Thanks for the reply Steve.
“Playing by ear” works for me.
Having creative freedom is a great gift! I’m glad you have that flexibility here.
It makes it a lot more fun, and its so uych more fun working with Leonard than the editors at Bloodhorse who I believe felt it was a nuisance having to read my copy and asked me to limit it to 2,500 words. Here I write a lot more than that and no problem.
Mr. Haskin,
You are high on Greatest Honour and rightfully so. He is a nice colt but I am of the opinion he has earned the #1 ranking as yet. . You specified a gut feeling regarding the colt and I was wondering if you factored into your ranking decision the trainers of the two colts.
In either 3 or 4 blogs back, you featured Pletcher vs Baffert based on their exploits on the Derby Trail over the years. Brad Cox the Outstanding Trainer for 2020 was mentioned as one to watch in 2021.
The Brad Cox trained Codda River who is ranked at #5, defeated Greatest Honor by a combined 3 1/4L in their 2 meetings. I wouldn’t be inaccurate to conclude that Codda River is not as good as Essential Quality at the moment.
Codda River’s pedigree doesn’t scream routing as compared to that of Greatest Honor. However, his sire Hard Spun was runner up in the KD. Tapit was unplaced in the KD. Caddo River’s dam was sired by Contrast a son of A P Indy. Given the efficiency with which Caddo River covers ground, I contend he has enough stamina in his pedigree to carry his speed effectively over 10F.
A member of Cox’s 2nd string defeated your #1 ranked horse twice. What’s the prospect of Greatest Honour defeating the #1 ranked colt in from Cox’s barn?
In the recently completed Pegasus World Cup. Brad Cox Knicks Go demolished the field that included Shug trained Code Of Honor. Whereas Code Of Honor seem to have lost his way. Kincks Go seems to have found his way since being placed under the keep and care of Brad Cox.
ROMAN CENTURIAN
You should be commended for your post race analysis of the performance of he subject colt. With the overwhelming focus on Medina Spirit’s performance. The monster performance delivered by RC was totally missed. He had to close a deficit of 7 1/2L under urging to get on terms with the leaders He was piloted 4 to 5 wide entering the stretch and lugged and bumped Hot Rod Charlie. To only beaten by NK, he could be considered the defacto winner.
What horses do in sprints have no bearing on how I perceive them as Derby horses. I try to explain my thinking in each horse’s comments. There are stats, there the visual and at times there is gut feeling. Sometimes gut feeling overrides stats, which seem to be broken every year.
LOVE me some Roman Centurian, never easy defeating winners after maidens, he improved, though, and his Phipps mares thru his pedigree is fine …just think this guy will stay like a mother in law…..as for The Great One…..first of all what a name! His races last year give the colt what my brother always said is Derby bottom…he is large framed and leggy…has run two improved races, and although he only beat three, two were Bob B three year olds, and one of them was favored over him, although he had just been beat in a Gr2 by a nose….Doug has several nice three year olds, and Doug O’ Neill knows how to win the Derby!
The best pipeline to Doug is Dennis. I can get an idea talking to him who he really is high on, and Dennis knows his horses.
A deep and thoughtful list for Week 3, Steve. Really looking forward to next week’s preps — you’ve set them up perfectly for us!
Thanks Mary Ellen. Tampa shoud tell us a lot, as there are two fairly high-ranked horses running and one could really enhance his reputation and the other could drop off the Rankings and there are several maiden winners who we dont know much about. And we’ll see who shows up for the Withers the first 1 1/8 mile 3 year- old prep with the winner likely passing the Gotham to wait for the Wood Memorial
Wouldn’t be the Derby Trail if that didn’t happen.
Great stuff as always, Steve. Was SO excited that I had picked Greatest Honour in the Holy Bull!! Hope he continues to do well. Hope Mike S has seen your comments about Proxy!
I’m surprised the jocks havent been intstructed to stop doing it. Whether it would move hm up I dont know, but it sure cant help him shying from the whip every race.
GREATEST HONOUR
There is absolutely nothing wrong with a gut feeling. However, gut feelings must be balanced with reality. The subject colt
scored a G3 win over a field comprising of mostly last out MSW and Allowance winners. With many making their routing
debut. It isn’t difficult to emerge the winner of such a race. Particularly when GH was the only entrant, with a 9F start and when pace setters were all in and not accelerating before reaching top of the stretch.
How does a colt with 5 starts with two wins including a G3. Is used to dethrone the undefeated Champion 2YO whose
resume reflect two G1 wins in 3 starts. On colt graduated from the MSW level to a G1 and the other graduated from
the same level to a G3.
Essential Quality has displayed far more versatility and class than Greatest Honour. He won on debut over 6F final
furlong in 1:09.93. The distance was deemed to be too short for the colt. He was trapped behind and between tiring
opponent and was extricate late with seemingly little chance to overhaul the leader. He displayed a serious turn of
foot to blow by the leader for a decisive win. Replace EQ with GH in said 6F with the same scenario and it is unlikely
he wins. He doesn’t appear to be a 1:09+ colt over 6F.
Essential Quality next contested the G1 Breeder Futurity. He raced in 2nd by about 1 1/2L before drawing off for a decisive win. He closed from far off the pace in relentless fashion to win the G1, BCJ on a seed bias surface. Whereas Greatest Honour’s opponents in he HB surrendered at the to top the stretch, Essential Quality found in Hot Rod Charlie an unyielding late race leader which had to did deep to get by.
At this phased of both colts careers’ they are neither close in achievements nor class. To rank Greatest Honour above
Essential Quality does a disservice to the 2YO Champion. If Greatest Honour is so highly regarded. There is nothing
wrong with a joint #1.
Can’t and will never speak for anyone else, but the trainers are quite different. One respected and one a little shady. Just a hunch.
The Haskin effect made him a top betting choice so I just watched and was happy when your belief was validated. One nice horse.
Why is everyone giving up so quickly on Jackie’s Warrior? Granted, he threw in a bad one in the Juvenile but even Man O’War lost.
It actually wasnt a bad one. He ran pretty good race. But it may hav exposed a weakness. All of hs wins were on the lead but when a rabbit was thrwn in he couldnt et the lead and was unable to win from off the pace. That is all he has to prove that he can adapt.
Was Ten for Ten the horse Shug had pointed to the Holy Bull? I read last week, Shug stopped on him. Wonder what is wrong? The Remsen was a strong race from fig perspective.
Probably. I mentoned last week that Ten for Ten was on the shelf.
How sweet is is! Steve, you amaze me how you keep this blog fresh week after week. To be honest, I kinda rely on your commentary early on because I tend to overload during the early weeks of the Derby trail. The final two preps are when my addled brain kicks into gear. So I must give a serious look to The Great One, a colt I hadn’t even thought about. A couple of other colts, too. And I would likely have not bet Greatest Honour in KDFW2 if you hadn’t thought so highly of him in your Week 1 rankings (at #5).
Regarding Essential Quality and others in the Louisiana Derby: I just don’t understand why this race is scheduled 6 weeks from the first Saturday in May. It makes me wonder whether Country House would have run so well in the KD if he hadn’t needed to run in the Ark Derby. (I don’t know if I’ll ever consider him a true KD winner, at least as it relates to historical handicapping.)
Thanks for your outstanding contributions to the Derby discussion.
Trainers now will take the 6 weeks. But I’m just going by the facts. It hasnt worked and there looks to be several really good horses who will test it this year.
Country House is a promoted KD winner.
If Omaha Beach made the KD he would have been the favorite. In his absence that distinction went to Improbable. Country House finished behind the two in the AK Derby.
When the promoted winner of the 2019 KD, previously finished 3rd to the top two colts in the country. There has to be some legitimacy.
Interesting list which no doubt generate far more comments than the week 2 list.