Derby Rankings: Week 4
The Saturday stakes brought new faces into the mix and disappointment to a few others. In any other year the Bob Baffert horses might have been No. 1 and 2, but this is not any other year, and with the 50-point races getting closer we should be hearing something soon. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Feb. 6, 2022 – Week 4
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
With stakes victories this year, Call Me Midnight and White Abarrio have boosted the form of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which is all we have to go by with him, as he’s only had two starts in his life and is not making his 3-year-old debut until February 19. This is today’s horseracing – having a horse ranked No. 1 even though you hardly know anything about him and are depending on others to raise your confidence in him. So, what we’ve come down to is pure speculation rather than a body of work. And that is why he’ll remain at the top until he gets beat or someone comes along who does something sensational and has a fairly extensive resume to go by. But if he is as talented as he looked in his first two starts it will take an awfully good horse to beat him. He not only returned to the work tab on Saturday he showed how eager he was to get back to serious training by working a brilliant five furlongs in :59 2/5, second-fastest work at the distance. Taking a reverse approach, rather than having him prove to me he is worthy of the No. 1 spot he has to prove to me he’s not. That’s how freaky good he’s looked so far. As a side note, if Mattress Mac cashes that $4.5 million bet he made on the Bengals in Sunday’s Super Bowl, imagine how much he’s going to bet on the son of his beloved Runhappy in the Derby. He’s already started in the Future Wager.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
Brown, who did call Zandon freaky good back on December 4, said his five-furlong work in 1:01 1/5 on Saturday was “outstanding.” The Risen Star is going to be one of the most intriguing matchups we’ve seen on the Derby trail in a long time. Not only do you have two lightly raced colts with only two career starts, Smile Happy will be coming off a 10-week layoff and Zandon a nine-week layoff; both horses ran exceptional races going two turns in their last start; and despite their lack of experience and having to go into the Kentucky Derby off only four career starts, the winner likely will be the Kentucky Derby favorite. Smile Happy does have a bit more foundation, with two 1 1/16-mile races under his belt, while Zandon made a huge stretch-out from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, but that gutsy Remsen performance, which he should have won on a disqualification, was over a typically deep and slow Aqueduct late fall surface, so that gave him a lot of bottom. But wait a minute, what if Los Alamitos Futurity winner Slow Down Andy beats both of them. After all, he’s only raced three times and two of them were in Cal-bred races. Do we have a clue how good he is? And don’t forget the Lecomte first three finishers, especially the always dangerous Epicenter.
3—Rattle N Roll (Ken McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
I was considering moving him up to the No. 2 spot because he’s now had three works, his last a solid half in :48 3/5, he’s more accomplished than Zandon, and there is so little separating the top three. But with Rattle N Roll not scheduled to run until March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby that is a long time to wait, so let’s see what happens in the Risen Star. Also, he is coming off an injury and only began breezing on January 22. He’s had more racing than the Top 2, but he will not have run for over five months going into the Tampa Derby. While I don’t like that long a layoff between 2 and 3 I can take consolation in knowing that American Pharoah made his 3-year-old debut on the same weekend and had actually been out of action 12 days longer than Rattle N Roll. Of course that was American Pharoah. And who knows where this colt will be ranked by Mach 12. A lot of people have forgotten how impressive he was in the Breeders’ Futurity, as evidenced by his 20-1 Future Wager odds compared to 8-1 on Smile Happy. He certainly was just as impressive as his stablemate, beating Classic Causeway by a bigger margin than Smile Happy did. As others move up while he remains idle, this might be the time to take a shot with him in the futures.
4—Messier (Bob Baffert, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
Baffert has been raving about this colt for a long time and, boy, did he look spectacular demolishing his field by 15 lengths in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Breaking from the rail he went for the lead going into the first turn, but you could tell right away he was much more relaxed with the blinkers off, as John Velazquez always seemed to have a ton of horse under him. By the time they passed the three-eighths pole you were just waiting for Velazquez to light the fuse, knowing there would be quite an explosion. In the blink of an eye Messier was gone and then long gone, running a perfectly straight course while hugging the rail and just gliding over the ground. You also have attribute maturity from 2 to 3, and remember, his only two losses have come at Los Alamitos. I’m sure everyone at once asked the same question: now what? Look, it’s pretty obvious by now that unless something changes with the Churchill Downs ban Messier and Newgrange will soon be headed to another barn or barns. And Baffert realizes that. Under normal circumstances this performance likely would have moved Messier up to No. 1 or close to it. But he really didn’t beat much – a bunch of maiden winners and a grass horse — and until we find out where he’s going we’ll just let him sit behind the Top 3 and wait for him to settle in with his new trainer. But, boy did he look good doing it. This was flawless in every respect. The only thing you need to know about his pedigree right now is that the mile and a quarter should be no problem at all.
5—Newgrange (Bob Baffert, Violence – Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker)
Baffert said he definitely will have something in the Rebel Stakes, a race he’s won eight times. The logical horse would be Newgrange, but the keyword here is ‘something.’ He realizes if things stay the way they are he likely won’t be training Newgrange. So what would be more gratifying than going to his bench and finding a horse that isn’t being pointed for the Kentucky Derby and knocking off those who are? The SF Racing, Starlight, Madaket conglomerate could be in a strong Derby position with at least Newgrange and Messier, but will still have quite a talented second team with Pinehurst, Rockefeller, Wharton, Doppelganger, McLaren Vale and several others they could save for the Preakness who will remain with Baffert. Of course, this is pure conjecture, but what else can one do with the Baffert horses at this point? As for Newgrange, I do like the way his Thoro-Graph numbers have improved from a “9” to a “7” to a “3 ½.” This no doubt is a colt who is improving and you have to love the way he traveled to Oaklawn and beat their best 3-year-olds in workmanlike fashion over what was described as a cuppy and tiring track.
6—White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
I mentioned in Knocking on the Door that he wasn’t ranked because he didn’t work in almost three weeks, and as it turns out he had gotten sick and missed two works. Then he got back on the work tab last weekend and went a half in a sharp :47 2/5 with Tyler Gaffalione up. To come back one week later with only one half-mile work in the last four weeks and win the way he did was pretty impressive. Not bad for a $7,500 yearling purchase who was then pinhooked for $40,000 and eventually sold privately. Granted he got a huge break when the speedy Simplification broke terribly and wound up at the back of the pack and Giant Game and Tiz the Bomb were never a factor. He was able to track 19-1 Galt though fairly soft fractions, put him away easily and had clear sailing the rest of the way, coming home in a sharp :24 2/5 and :06 1/5 and crossing the wire 4 ½ lengths in front. As mentioned earlier, one thing the race does is boost the form of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, his only defeat, and flatter Smile Happy. He is by a grade 2 winning son of Tapit, but his female family is geared more toward speed up to a mile or possibly a little longer. I don’t know how much that means these days, but let’s just wait and see how he does in the Florida Derby going 1 1/8 miles with a more competitive pace. But he obviously is a very good horse and I’m not sure even with good trips, Simplification and Mo Donegal would have beaten him
7—Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Edwina E, by Square Eddie)
He breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 in company and was much improved as far as the head cocking goes. He did give one itty bitty little peak for a fraction of a second, but basically did everything perfect other than switching back to left lead late. He has a powerful stride and good low action and just seems like a work in progress. But it shouldn’t be long before we see a polished finished product. O’Neill is never afraid to take on anyone and he’ll travel if he has to, so it’s obvious by waiting for this race he has no concerns taking on two potential stars and a solid local contingent. This is still a perplexing colt in that we have no idea how good he is and how reliable the Los Alamitos Futurity was. The way Messier won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes it would be understandable if you feel that race was an aberration and simply a bad day for Messier. O’Neill is always dangerous and this Cal-bred has to be respected.
8—Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
Taking a shot here. I am jumping the gun with him because I feel he is going to run a big race (in his stakes debut) and establish himself as a major player. He seems to just glide over the ground with smooth effortless strides and has the look of a classy horse who is extremely responsive to what the rider asks of him. You want him to relax and go along on cruise control and he’ll just prick his ears and lope along. You want him to get down to business and run and he’ll pin his ears and step on the gas. He has a commanding presence about him and despite still being under wraps around the far turn and well into the stretch in his allowance win, he still was able to run (his last two quarters in :23 4/5 and :24 flat). When (Morales) finally started pushing on him he quickly put it in another gear. Yes, a horse going that slow early is supposed to come home fast, but most horses can’t go that fast while in a common gallop. What makes the above comment so interesting is that with the exception of the three parentheses for currency sake, those are my word for word comments on Always Dreaming the first time I ranked him on Derby Dozen following his allowance win. I repeated these words because I could just as easily have been describing Emmanuel. As for Emmanuel’s pedestrian Thoro-Graph numbers of “8 ½” and “8 ¼,” I wrote this about Always Dreaming: “Sometimes a special horse can transcend speed figures early in their career, and this colt took a sledgehammer and shattered his paltry speed figs with the kind of performance we’ve been waiting for all winter.” Will history repeat itself?
9—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
It may sound strange, but I consider him more of a Derby horse now than I did before the Holy Bull. Going two turns for the first time, had he won the same way he won the Mucho Macho Man, leading all the way in fast fractions, it would have been impressive but I would have needed to see more to consider him a major Derby contender, mainly the ability to close from off the pace and not be one dimensional. When he broke badly and dropped so far back, it looked hopeless he would even pick up a piece of it. Racing wide the whole way, he put in a long sustained run, but had no chance to catch the winner. He drifted even wider turning for home and still closed well to finish second narrowly holding off Mo Donegal, despite never changing leads. I have no idea what was going on with his owner saying she wanted to wait until the Florida Derby and then he shows up in the Holy Bull. But in spite of being a huge “bounce” candidate making a giant leap from a “14” to a “2” Thoro-Graph number in the Mucho Macho Man he ran a big race, showing he was far from a one-dimensional horse.
10—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Calingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
Just like White Abarrio boosted the form of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he boosted the form of the Remsen Stakes even with his third-place finish. He had a lot going against him, dropping back from 1 1/8 miles on a slow surface to 1 1/16 miles over a speed favoring track with a short stretch. Breaking from the inside, he saved ground around the turn and down the backstretch. Irad Ortiz tried to ease him out and he had a clear path, but Simplification was on the move on the far outside and kept him hemmed in. Ortiz finally was able to get him to the outside, but there wasn’t much response so he had to go to the whip around the three-eighths pole and then kept riding him hard. Pletcher come-from-behind horses as a whole do not show that quick turn of foot around the far turn, but they always keep coming, building up momentum finding that extra gear in the stretch, and that’s what happened with Mo Donegal; he just kept coming under several left-handed and then right-handed whips. He finally found that extra gear in midstretch and just missed second. I’m not sure if Pletcher will subject him to another 1 1/16-mile race in the Fountain of Youth, but I feel he probably could use another shorter race to set him up for a big effort in the Florida Derby, while picking up points, rather than wait eight weeks and then another five weeks to the Kentucky Derby. But Pletcher likes time between races so we’ll see. He definitely has plenty of bottom already.
11—Early Voting (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Amour d’Ete, by Tiznow)
Many are going to look at the ridiculously slow three-quarter and mile fractions and the sloth-like 1:55 4/5 final time and paltry 78 Beyer speed figure and dismiss this colt and the race as being a farce. But if you know horses and look a bit deeper you will realize that this was a much better performance than the stats indicate and what an exceptional colt he has the potential to be, even though it is early to pass any judgment. Let’s look at the time first. Yes, it was slow, but this horse, who was making only his second career start and first around two turns, rocketed out of the gate like he was in a sprint and he ran his opening quarter over the drying out muddy track in :23 2/5. To show how fast that was for a 1 1/8-mile race, in the six-furlong Toboggan Handicap, the brilliant 1-5 favorite Happy Medium ran his opening quarter in the same :23 2/5 and tired badly, getting beat 10 lengths. What makes Early Voting so special, as he has shown in both his starts, is his ability to distance himself from the field on the far turn without being asked. One minute he was two lengths in front with several others closing in and in a flash he was six in front nearing the top of the stretch and eight in front turning for home. Yes, he might have gotten a bit tired, but he actually picked it up again nearing the wire, winning by 4 ½ lengths and came back bouncing along with his head up like the race took nothing out of him. This is a classy-looking colt who is bright and alert and very professional and is bred to run all day. Of course, I won’t be as high on him if he goes straight to the Wood Memorial and tries the Derby off only three career starts. Having a lightly raced horse run in a 1 1/8-mile race this early in the year can play havoc on your schedule, so he may have to out of town to get two more races in, even if it means shortening up a bit.
12—Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Smitten, by Tapit)
He finally got that first work out of the way, breezing three panels in :37 1/5 and now we can move forward with him. Pure speculation, but assuming he needs four more works the most logical path would seem to be the Tampa Bay Derby March 12, then the Blue Grass Stakes April 9. There is no longer the luxury of waiting another week for the Arkansas Derby because Oaklawn has moved their schedule up and the Arkansas Derby is now run two weeks earlier than in the past. Perish the thought of horses running in the Kentucky Derby off only three weeks. This horse has shown too much in his first three starts to dwell on the fact that’s he’s maiden. With only having two preps before the Derby, I still would consider him a contender even he was still a maiden going into the Derby. Of course you want him to get that first victory, but we see all kind of horses win the Derby these days. He’ not quite fast enough yet with back-to-back “5” Thoro-Graph numbers, and I’m not saying right now he’s got a big shot to win the Derby. I know what I’ve seen so far and I just want him to get back in action after being out with slight bone bruising so we have an idea what we’re dealing with. But I still believe he is an exceptional colt and will be moving up.
13—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
OK, Smile Happy still is ranked No. 1 and White Abarrio just ran off with the Holy Bull Stakes. Now it’s up to him to maintain the form of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, in which he split those two. All he has to do for now is avoid stablemates Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll, who handled him pretty easily last fall, and he is ready to beat anyone. He’s already shown his brilliance in his career debut at Saratoga, winning wire to wire by 6 ½ lengths in a snappy 1:22 3/5 for the seven furlongs, and judging from his last two old school works, six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 and seven furlongs in 1:26 flat, he is sitting on a monster performance in his 3-year-old debut, likely the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Saturday. The homebred son of Giant’s Causeway is bred to run all day and would vault right up there among the leading Derby contenders with an impressive victory. He ran well enough to win the Breeders’ Futurity and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but the McPeek pair were just too tough to handle. I expect to see a better colt at 3.
14—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
Back on the work tab with an easy :51 half-mile drill. With all the stamina in his female family, it would be a waste if he couldn’t learn to harness his speed and sit back off the pace rather than bust out of there every race and battle for the lead through fast fractions. That is what cost him a victory in the Lecomte Stakes. He simply went too fast early and still was able to gamely hold off the challenge of Pappacap on his inside, but was nipped right at the wire by longshot Call Me Midnight. Maybe this :51 breeze was a step in the right direction. He has two more races to figure it out, and I have confidence that between Asmussen and the longer distances of the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, all that European stamina, combined with his own natural talent, will come out and make him a formidable foe against all the big-name invaders in the Risen Star.
15—Pappacap (Mark Casse, Gun Runner – Pappascat, by Scat Daddy)
He returned to the work tab with a solid half-mile drill in :48 3/5. Other than his third-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field has made absolutely no impact on the Derby trail. He has a chance to change that if he can somehow win the Risen Star Stakes against what promises to be the toughest field of the year with several top horses shipping in. The problem is he always runs well, but can’t seem to find a way to win, and although he ran a good race in the Lecomte, battling to the wire, he has to take a big step forward and reverse that finish and then find a way to beat shippers Smile Happy, Zandon, and Slow Down Andy. He looks to be a one-paced grinding type who always runs his race and he did look good coming off the rail and getting second behind wire-to-wire winner Corniche in the Juvenile. Now it’s time to show he can finish the job.
16—Call Me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux, Midnight Lute – Overseen, by First Defence)
The question with him is can he duplicate his narrow Lecomte victory and start showing a little consistency. Yes, the race was set up for him with the fast early pace set by Epicenter, but he did come from more than a dozen lengths back and had some good form prior to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. As mentioned, he is the only horse from the Lecomte who is showing a good progression in his Thoro-Graph numbers, going from a “12 ¾” to an “11” to a “7 ¾” to a “5,” and if he can keep that up then he has a chance to be a legitimate Derby contender.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Forget the fact that MORELLO has had only two career starts and hasn’t been farther than seven furlongs. He has crushed his opponents in both starts, including Sunday’s Jimmy Winkfield Stakes by five widening lengths without being touched with the whip, and he’s not even bred to be a sprinter. The way he rated off the pace and was striding out in the final sixteenth with great extension shows that he should only keep getting better as the distances stretch out. Looking at the sires in his first three generations from a classic standpoint, his sire was second in the Preakness, his paternal grandsire was second in the Kentucky Derby and sired a Triple Crown winner, and his four great-grandsires have combined to win the Belmont twice, the Breeders’ Cup Classic twice, and the Travers. He still has the Gotham and Wood Memorial to make a name for himself on the Derby trail. And judging from what I’ve seen so far he could be special enough to become a major factor by the first Saturday in May. In short, I am very high on this horse.
We saw another sensational performance over the weekend. Normally, when a trainer sees two imposing Todd Pletcher horses entered in a race, both coming impressive maiden wins, one an 8 ½-length romp, and are going off at 4-5 and 2-1, he has to figure he has little shot of winning and will just hope to finish third. Pletcher’s powerful Florida forces every year are always intimidating. But Kelly Breen needed to know if his colt IN DUE TIME was Derby material and how he would do stretching out from 5 1/2 and six furlongs to a flat mile. And he no doubt had a lot of confidence in his colt taking on the Pletcher machine and was not about to back down even from one of Pletcher’s WinStar wonders. In Due Time had run two hard races, either setting or pressing a fast pace, but they were six months apart, and he had disappointed in his first start back. So when the big Pletcher favorite AMERICAN ICON went to lead as expected as the 4-5 favorite, most thought the race was over. But In Due Time showed a whole new dimension and came storming up on the outside like a fresh horse and surprisingly blew right by American Icon as if he were the 4-5 shot and quickly drew off to win by almost six lengths in 1:35 4/5 with his ears pricked. Bred by Gary and Mary West, In Due Time had to have been toughened mentally, going through the sales ring three times, selling for bargain basement prices — $9,500 as a weanling, $35,000 as a yearling, and $95,000 as a 2-year-old where he had to have shown something, bringing 10 times more than he sold for as weanling and more than double what he sold for as a yearling. By a red-hot sire out of a Curlin mare, he is a rare outcross through five generations and has very few big names in is tail-female family, but they were all hard-knocking stakes horses. Breen said he will consider the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby route, adding that he has several options. The bottom line is watch out for this guy.
In Saturday’s Swale Stakes, the Pletcher-trained MY PRANKSTER was game holding off Dean Delivers after making a nice run from fifth, but for now it looks like sprinting will be his game
Despite a mediocre record on grass and dirt, and breaking his maiden for a $50,000 claiming tab, GET BACK GOLDIE, a son of Goldencents trained by Doug O’Neill, was able to eke out a half-length victory in a Dubai sprint race. Could the UAE Derby be his target? Let’s just say he didn’t make the long trip to run in a little six-furlong race and soak in the desert air.
One horse who is improving with every start, especially with the addition of blinkers, is the Bill Mott-trained GILDED AGE, who put in strong run from far back to finish third in the Withers Stakes. With his classic pedigree, his explosive closing kick, and all the bottom he has under him, with three 1 1/16-mile races and a 1 1/8-mile race , watch out for him in the Wood Memorial. And he was awfully impressive breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs. If you liked Gilded Age’s race then you have to pay attention to Withers runner-up UN OJO, who closed from 17 lengths back and passed Gilded Age on the inside to get second. He had previously raced at Delta Downs before being turned over to the astute Tony Dutrow. In his first start with Dutrow the New York-bred son of Laoban closed fast in the seven-furlong New York Stallion Series Stakes but fell a neck short. The Withers was a big step up, but he showed he belonged in top-class company. Another to watch in the Wood Memorial.
I had to drop GIANT GAME and TIZ THE BOMB for obvious reasons, as both were very disappointing. Tiz the Bomb was washed out going in the gate and Giant Game was in perfect position down the backstretch, but quickly dropped out of it as if he had a breathing or bleeding issue, but that is pure conjecture. I wouldn’t dismiss GALT quite yet. He has proven to be a much better horse without blinkers and wasn’t beaten far for second. He just wasn’t quite ready for these horses, but should improve off this race.
It was good to see CHASING TIME back on the work tab, as he breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5. It’s still a long way off to his stakes debut in the Rebel Stakes, so until then we’ll just wait and see how he trains up to the race.
Dallas Stewart is expecting BEN DIESEL, third in the Southwest Stakes, to take another step forward in the Rebel Stakes. The homebred son of Will Take Charge was impressive breaking his maiden first time out going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill, coming from just off the pace. Going directly to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he pressed the pace from post 10 and finished a respectable fourth at 15-1. In the Smarty Jones Stakes run in the slop, he was forced to go to the front breaking from post 13, battled for the lead through a fast half in :46 2/5 and tired to finish seventh, but was only beaten 5 ½ lengths. In the Southwest, he broke from the rail and was taken back to fifth, almost seven lengths off the pace. He saved ground all the way, made a good run along the inside, but couldn’t match strides with Newgrange and was passed late by Barber Road. Even with the speed he has shown, he is bred more for stamina, and I like his inbreeding three times to Fappiano through his sons Unbridled, Quiet American, and Rubiano. This demonstrates the versatility of Fappiano, and Ben Diesel, as those three stallions, respectively, won the Kentucky Derby, sired a Kentucky Derby winner, and was champion sprinter.
Despite his fifth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes, DASH ATTACK could still come back for the Rebel Stakes, according to Kenny McPeek, who said the track was a little deep and cuppy and he feels he left the colt short by not doing enough with him in the morning and he got tired in the race. One horse who definitely will return in the Rebel is Southwest runner-up BARBER ROAD, who closed well to finish a strong second for trainer John Ortiz. He is as consistent as they come but needs to learn how to win.
Another big Pletcher 2-year-old finally back on the work tab is Sanford Stakes winner WIT, who breezed thee furlongs in :37 1/5 at the Stonestreet training center after having gone through a tie-back procedure or an entrapped epiglottis, which most likely curtailed his breathing in the Hopeful and Champagne. But how far he wants to go is still in question. Pletcher’s Iroquois Stakes winner MAJOR GENERAL continues to progress, working five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5.
The Thoro-Graph numbers finally are in on FORBIDDEN KINGDOM’S San Vicente victories. He ran a “6” in his career debut, and in his last two starts, he ran a “6” each time, so from a Thoro-Graph standpoint he has not improved off his maiden score. We’ll see what happen when he stretches out in the San Felipe Stakes.
If you want arguably the oddest bred horse ever on the Derby trail, EAGLE IN LOVE, a gelded son of Dialed In who won his career debut February 3 by 4 1/2 lengths going a mile at Aqueduct, might fit that bill. His first three dams were bred in Panama. His broodmare sire is Jed Forest, a U.S-bred son of Gold Alert who won four individual championships in Panama, including Horse of the Year. His second dam is by the U.S,-bred Jacque Noir, who never ran. His third dam is by the Argentinian-bred Ponthieu. And his fourth dam is by, get this, Kentucky Derby winner Needles, who hasn’t been seen in a pedigree in who knows how long. Got to follow this horse.
Still Rooting for Forbidden Kingdom
For me so far the most impressive 3yo will not be going for the Derby, because Adare Manor was not even nominated, I think Bob only brought one filly Excellent Meeting, for the Derby, when he also had General Challenge, two Cal-breds, his filly finished fourth.
The same year Excellent Meeting ran in the Kentucky Derby, Silverbulletday won the Kentucky Oaks and was seventh in the Belmont Stakes. Both fillies were trained by Bob Baffert.
I haven’t made a KDFW in any pool, and I thought I’d be passing on it completely this year. But 45-1 on Simplification looks too good to ignore. Small bet…I just don’t want to be smacking myself in the head after he wins the FOY and Florida Derby, then goes to Louisville as one of the favorites. 🙂
It’s fun……I always put up a play, usually don’t win but my fiver paid me $125 last year on Medina, and also had a fiver on Mandaloun!
Good going with the MS bet. Usually I make one or two small bets a year. But last year I must have had a head injury and bet FIVE horses, all around 40-1. All but Mandaloun fell off the trail. I’m eagerly awaiting instructions about my winnings when Mandaloun is declared the winner. I bet online, so it probably goes right into my account without any action on my part. Right?
🙂 🙂 🙂
1973 Santa Anita misread a photo, and paid out to the 2nd place horse! Next day announced their mistake, and the winner’s tickets paid nada!
There are still 17 more Road to The Kentucky Derby points races to be contested. A long way to go. I read somewhere that about 40 points is considered the benchmark to get into The Derby. I don’t know if that’s true. I wonder if that benchmark could be lower this year with points earned by the BB runners being withheld? We’ll see.
Ten points was enough last year for the 20th horse in. In 2019 it was 40 points, 2018 needed 29, and 2017 needed 30.
The bubble varies somewhat from year to year depending on defections and or horses dropping off the trail due to injury etc.
2013, 5<40; 2014, 2 <40; 2015, 5<40; 2016, 2<40; 2017, 0<40; 2018, 2<40 (one was a Euro); 2019, 0<40 (Japanese Horse in the field); 2020, 6 with <40 and 2021, 1<40.
Excellent compilation Lynda… thanks so much for your informative posts.
Not sure I understand what Lynda provided. The number of horses each year that earned less than 40 points? Maybe I misunderstood what Tommy meant by “40 points is considered the benchmark.” I thought he was wondering about the number of points needed to enter the gate. That’s the big question every year.
Thank you Nelson.
Since the points system began in 2013 I have been keeping a sort of a history of the system looking for any trends that developed.
Thoroughbred LA at 12:06 PM (15min) has the annual interview with Billy Kilmer, 50 years ago played against the undefeated Dolphins in the Super Bowl….
A whopping 13-race card for next Saturday’s Risen Star card at Fairgrounds. Big fields. 10 of the 13 races have 10 horses or more entered. The Risen Star has attracted Epicenter, Zandon, Smile Happy, Pappacap, Trafalgar, and Slow Down Andy among others. And for the gamblers among us: 3 pick-5s & 4 pick-4s. I don’t think that I have enough money in my account to get me through that card.
Slow Down Andy gets tested on Saturday. We should know after The Risen Star if he belongs on The Triple Crown Trail. My guess is “No”. But, I’ll try to be open-minded.
I know that Slow Down Andy beat Messier, but, for whatever reason, the Messier that he beat at Los Alamitos didn’t look anything like the Messier that won The Robert Lewis at Santa Anita.
Messier really picked it up in his January works, I watched them and noted it—but he fired his shot at Los Al, he was well clear of 3rd, and perhaps that 85 Beyer was lite…..Skiw Down isn’t exactly knocking me out with his works, and his full siblings aren’t all that. ..still the horse is built long, and his two-turn debut was solid! I expect a good price on the Cal-bred, he’s in there with the tough guys, Smile Again has looked real good and Zandon has looked brilliant…..still they didn’t beat Messier!
Classic Causeway got an 88 Beyer for his magnificent run in the Sam F. Davis. Then I saw that Barese got an 87 in the Gander, a stakes for NY breds. Yes, Barese charged past a horse who looked like a shoe-in in the last few strides, but the performance was hardly equal to that of the Sam Davis winner.
Beyer figures can be weird. Steve, I hope you can make sense of it all tomorrow.
CHARGE IT got a 93 Beyer and will only improve
He was definitely impressive, Mark! Maybe the weird Beyer has something to do with the Tampa Bay track. Charge It ran at Gulfstream. I find Beyers tend to track previous past performance, so it makes no sense to me that Shipsational, who last posed an 88 Beyer, should drop to an 83. Perhaps there will be a review. It’s happened before.
Now waiting for the next edition of the Derby Dozen. CC ran a very good race, broke well and had plenty left at the end. The El Camino was also a good race. As the Baffert winners strip points from the system am wondering how that is going to look heading into May. Are the owners going to move to another barn or say screw Churchill and the TC this year?
Some will move I’m thinking.
Actually, as part of the condition of the El Camino Real the winning horse (Blackadder) earned a berth in the Preakness….ala Rombauer last year.
Good whole race by Classic Causeway. In the stretch, I. Ortiz shook the reins and the horse took off, increasing the margin of victory when he didn’t have to. His doseage no’s are really slanted to distance, if those still have any validity. The connections may just have their Derby horse, the first one for all of them, if they win. I. magine that.
Classic Causeway is a gorgeous horse; striking..
Congrats to Team Baffert for their win in El Camino Real Derby…..Blackladder….a real nice win.
Congrats to Team Lynch for win in Sam F. Davis. His horse is real deal!
Agreed.
He’s a contendah!
Eddie, liked every aspect of race. For me, he checked all boxes. Your take away?
What’s not to like? What I liked the most was how he shot out of the starting gate. For an early speed horse, getting a trouble-free start in the Derby is crucial.
Agreed!
So happy for Classic Causeway!
Was looking at field this morning and thought Shipsational would do well and he did.
On the same page. Very pleased.
Charge It and We the People impressed today, colts oozing with talent. The former may attempt a Derby prep, the latter might be too late.
Charge It has same sire and dam sire as Flightline…and both seem to like to wing it!! from the get go. ..will keep an eye on him for derby. So sad about Flightline.s injury…:(
Yes, very disappointing reading about Flightline’s injury but at least it’s only minor. Both Flightline and Charge It have very active families so the future looks positive racing wise and at stud. Charge It looks certain to be a major stakes winner while Flightline’s future is already sealed.
It’ll be interesting to see where Pletcher places Charge It next.
Two numbers:
4 runners from the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes have won graded stakes in January and February.
6 seconds for Classic Causeway’s final half furlong.
Predictability is a good thing… as we agreed the other day, the prep races are fertile ground for logic outcomes.
All these good looking horses in the Sam Davis and it ends up with the classiest and the fastest horses in the Exacta.
The Risen Star will be a thrilling competition for sure…!
Also predictable is that horses with good early speed have won just about every prep this year. For sure, the Risen Star will be epic! I think there’s an excellent chance it will produce the early Derby favorite.
I’m surprised that nobody has talked about Brad Cox’s Zozos. I mentioned him yesterday morning and he proceeded to utterly destroy the even-money Barossa in an 8.5f allowance at Oaklawn. He paid $9.80. Maybe folks aren’t loving his pedigree. But he looked sharp, finishing the final half furlong is 6.06 sec.
Got ahead of myself. Three graded stakes winners from the KJC Stakes. A win next Saturday would make it 4. 🙂
Winners of the Sam F. Davis Stakes have had little impact on the Tampa Bay Derby and even less impact on the Kentucky Derby. Arguably, the best performances in the Sam F. Davis Stakes stay there. Just a cautionary tale.
Barring injury, that may change this year.
Anything is possible. However, in over 40 years it hasn’t though.
It’s only been a graded stakes since 2009. But Bluegrass Cat won the SBD in 2006 and finished 2nd in the Derby.
Don’t worry, the Tampa races I love but unfortunately, for whatever reason, they have little impact on the Kentucky Derby. However, with the Belmont Stakes the Tampa races, for whatever reason, have much to consider. Funny world, racing.
That is what happens when you attend a performance of Wagner! Party pooper!!
Just saving you future disappointment. Lol.
Don’t think I’m not appreciative.
And then there is on any given Saturday the racing gods smile down on on a underdog.
CC is real deal!
That Sam Davis was a humdinger! Most impressed with Classic Causeway, who was pressed on the lead the entire trip and still ran away from the field. Shout out to my pick, Shipsational, who closed well late for a strong second. Will we see a change in the leaderboard?
Here’s what the immortal Steve Haskin said less than a week ago:
“The homebred son of Giant’s Causeway is bred to run all day and would vault right up there among the leading Derby contenders with an impressive victory.”
I don’t see any major change other than Classic Causeway moving up a few spots.
My view also.
Classic Causeway will get a big Beyer number for his Sam Davis win today….shot to early lead, by the time the outside speed came alongside CC was already in a rhythm, Irad got him to the front then was able to set the fractions, I’m not sold on the horse but the rider is tops….anybody hearing any complaints on Ortiz Bros team-ups? Seems that after the Pegasus, where Rosario got the HOY out well, then didn’t even try for the lead, then Jose is riding for his life, on Stiletto Boy, and gives Knicks a hind-end shove, in the Sam Davis there’s Jose right behind his brother’s behind, at top of the stretch I’m not from back east, both brothers are very good, Irad is in yhe Pincay zone, in my opinion…he doesn’t need help.
On occasions I have seen the Red Sea part by one Ortiz brother, only to see the other Ortiz brother sneak through before the sea closes again. Mind you, these things are obvious it’s the subtle ‘games’ you often miss. On a good note, Ortiz Jr is riding better/safer after his month’s suspension.
Like yourself, I wasn’t dazzled by Classic Causeway’s win either. We’ll see.
Charge It looks ready for the lions after an easy win breaking his maiden … another Tapit also for Pletcher (Enough Already) was the runner up
split and final times below:
24.24 47.47 1:11.45 1:23.25 finishing in a respectable 1:35.55 for the mile All by himself
Charge It, confident win at Gulfstream Stream by the stylish Tapit colt. Impressed again.
Hi Steve – Good PP draw for your #2ranked horse and my KDFW1 Horse Zandon in the Risen Star. He drew outside of the likely speed Epicenter and can reel that one in on the long FG Stretch. I am surprised that Rosario opted for Epicenter over Zandon. What are your thoughts on this move Steve? Zandon will be picking up Jose Ortiz who is a very good jockey in his own right and one of Chad Brown’s go to jockeys. A loaded field of 10 which also includes Slow Down Andy, Smile Happy and the consistent board hitter Papacapp. Seems to me to be the most loaded prep yet. Can’t wait for next Saturday, I’ m glad Zandon drew well.
Zandon’s a serious horse.
Classic Causeway –
In the Keeneland Breeder Futurity CC was the post time favorite returning $0.90 on the dollar. He was on the lead comfortably recording fractions that were slower than those recorded in his debut win. A fellow last out MSW winner ran by him as if glued to the ground. He had no excuses.
In The Kentucky Jockey Club,CC was the post time favorite returning $0.40 on the dollar. he was rated off the pace in pedestrian fractions. He made a modest move approaching the top of the stretch but had no answer for a the last out MSW winner Smile Happy. He had no excuses.
It appears this colt belongs on turf. What evidence is there that he will be able to repel the challenges of serious closers, given he hasn’t done same in his two previous efforts? He doesn’t inspire confidence.
I plan to place a decent wage across the board on Unprintable Bay. But I do have some reservations:
Julian Leparoux who was the rider of the colt in its last 3 races to 2 second and a win. Has opted to say at Gulfstream Park for 7 mounts.
The colt’s trainer has a 5% record with horses of the layoff.
Julian Leparoux wouldn’t lever 7 mounts at GP to ride a last MSW in the Sam Davis. Concern eliminated.
On January 15, 2020, trainer Alnaz Ali entered debutant Princess Elin in a (6F) MSW at Tampa Bay. The filly closed from 10L of the pace to win at 41/1 whilst being eased before the line.
If a trainer can post a debutant winner to beat horses from the barn of Saffie Josephs, Eoin Harty, Chris Clement, Cathy O’Connell. He should be capable of brining a horse back in winning shape after 6 weeks. Concern eliminated.
CF, still believe CC belongs on turf? He’s a serious racehorse…. period!
Good luck today everyone (your picks for the SFD) and safe racing to all. Good luck too on your team winning the Super Bowl.
Congratulations to all of the Eclipse Award winners. Really no disagreement from me on any of the winners.
As to the Medina Spirit necropsy report. Just as Ms Blacktype posted below, just something else about this colt’s brief life that is “unresolved”. Really no surprise that the necropsy did not reveal what caused his sudden death, more often than not the cause(s) cannot be determined even when it happens to young human athletes. I was hoping, however, that the results would yield more information so that veterinarians and breeders could learn more about these sudden deaths and how to prevent them. Sadly, horses of all ages and breeds and disciplines, even pasture ponies, do die suddenly for no apparent reason.
Have a great weekend! Forecast is for a sunny one here and warming temperatures.
My Trifecta Box in the Sam F. Davis:
3-Classic Causeway 3/1 (Ortiz/Lynch)
6-Trademark 15/1 (Centeno/Oliver)
8-Shipsational 6/1 (Castellano/Barker)
4-Golden Glider 12/1 (Gallardo/Casse)
2-Unpredictable Bay 20/1 (Quinonez/Ali)
Good luck to everyone and safe racing this weekend!
The Also Eligible (13)Little Vic is in after the scratch of Howling Time… another one contributing to a very fast tempo starting from the outermost post position.
Good combination.
I would have switched 6 or 8 with Strike Hard. Why?
Finishing second to White Ararrio and Simplification must count for something. White Ararrio and Simplification finished 1-2 in the Holy Bull. Strike Hard was beaten by two nice colts.
But that’s just my opinion which carried absolutely no value.
Yes CF … Strike Hard got the merits you mention and I might regret leaving him out (budget constraints). I am leaning toward inside speed as opposed to outer ones. As may have read in my exchanges with EddieF the fact that the son of Flashback is not switching leads properly does not help his case.
Besides, I am loyal to Castellano as I have lucky betting him in the past… Loyalty sometimes pays out.
Good luck in all your bets !
Like your picks Nelson. Good luck!
Thanks Lynda !
Perchance did you amend your trifecta wager after watching Charge It win earlier at Gulfstream, and use Volcanic underneath?
Howling Time was scratched from the Davis according to brisnet’s Kellie Reilly …
In looking at the Sam Davis…
Classic Causeway (3-1) seemed solid at initial glance. Then I read what Steve wrote above on him and my position became much more favorable. Ortiz a great sign and I love me some second to last workout in 1:12. Most likely to win and be in the exacta.
Golden Glider (12-1) – I don’t think he took anything close to a deep breath last out, so I see him having the most potential to explode here. Didn’t like that he seemed to lose focus after getting the lead in the stretch, but hey, I expect a big effort. I see him as the x-factor.
The others I would use are…
Strike Hard (6-1)
Kitten Mischief (12-1)
I like both of their last outs quite a bit. Not sure how much being stuck on the outside hurts them at this track, as I couldn’t find track stats on winning post positions in routes.
With all that pace in the Sam Davis—perhaps Volcanic might get a trip, from off the pace and perhaps that outside post won’t hurt as much—horse was fitted with blinkers for comeback maiden race and he was right there the entire way–colt has shown ability to pass horses and perhaps will take back tomorrow—they got the maiden out of the way, now is time for stakes races, with all that speed drawn I think they sit a trip….
I really liked his last race but I fear a bounce after such a strong effort off the long layoff. That’s the only hesitation I have.
That’s a very good point! …..sad, really, that a horse that may be the first Canadian bred to win the roses—-in a long time…..gets caught in the Churchill Downs squeeze….I think they blew it!
Pardon my ramble, started out talking about Volcanic…ended up talking about Messier.
Matthew, post race follow up just to say good call on Volcanic. I learned I should have a better reason to leave out a horse I like than thinking he could bounce.
I really wanted to give King Guillermo a look in The Pelican. He’s returning to the scene of his finest moment and he adds blinkers. As a reminder, he won the 2020 Tampa Derby and paid over $100 on his 49-1. He followed that up with a good 2nd to Nadal in the 2020 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. But, since then it’s been all down hill. He’s gone winless and lost 4 of his 5 races since then by more than 10 lengths. Now, he tries sprinting for the first time in almost 3 years. I’ll have to let him beat me. King Guillermo was a member in good standing of Steve’s Derby Rankings during that 2020 season if I remember correctly.
King Guillermo is not the only runner from that 2020 Tampa Derby to fall on hard times. The Favorite and second place finisher from that race, Sole Volante, has won only 1 of his 10 races since then and is currently riding a 9-race losing streak. I guess sometimes “what happens at Tampa, stays at Tampa”.
King Guillermo= managed bad!
One of the commentators on TVG said that Howling Time will be scratched and Little Vic will draw into the Sam F Davis field. That will add even more speed to the lineup. Those 2 Mark Casse runners keep looking better and better.
I would be strong on God of Love if it wasn’t for the two week gap in works. I personally don’t like to see that.
For the second time in a row at Meydan (see Dec 16 Mirdiff Stakes) Azure Coast comes from out of the clouds to take UAE 2000 Guineas. Sent off at odds of 8/1, the Russian-owned Street Sense colt ran the 1,600 meters in a moderate time of 1:39.21. While both of these races featured thrilling finishes, as is usually the case for the 3-year-olds in Dubai, who did he really beat?
Yes, the 2,000 Guineas result should have little, if any, impact on the UAE Derby. Definitely not superior milers either.
The much anticipated necropsy report for Medina Spirit has just been released to the public…”a definitive cause of death was not established despite extensive testing…..medications that were detected were consistent with the report given to the CHRB by the attending vet…no other drugs, heavy metals, toxicants were detected…”
I saw the story on DRF. Poor Medina Spirit. Even in death things are unresolved for him.
Golden Glider has two starts that featured very little tactical speed at two different venues; over 2 different surfaces and 2 different distances. It’s inconceivable that a Ghostzapper colt out of a mare sired by BC Sprint champion Orientate, doesn’t appear to possess tactical speed. Well, in fairness he has been tardy at the gates in both starts. As a result, he closed from last for his wins. I am of the opinion that if he breaks alertly, he is likely to show tactical speed. There is just too much speed in his pedigree.
What I like the most about Golden Glider is the efficiently with which he covers ground. There is no wasted motion in the way he executes his fluent stride to ground devouring effect. Viewing him standing square in the winner’s enclosure, it is clear why he fetched $395K as a yearling.
I am surprised many do not have this colt on their KD list despite his light resume. Any serious evaluation of his debut win must result in the conclusion that if he remains healthy, he will be in the mix when KD 2020 is being decided.
I expect Unpredictable Bay to lead deep into the lane. But Golden Glider is the entrant I expect to emerge the winner. If he breaks alertly, he will keep up with the leading group. From his post his rider has to get him out with the pack. If not, he has his work cut out.
irrespective of what occurs, I think he is the horse to beat. If he breaks alertly, I think victory is assured. Hey! Dreams are free.
I wrote above that he’s most likely to explode here. His last wasn’t anything special but it was completely effortless, like he could have won by 10. I’m expecting they light the fuse in this one.
Eighth race at Oaklawn today is an 8.5f allowance for 3 yos. Barossa (5-2 ML fave) was just transferred from Baffert to Brisset, but it doesn’t look like it was for Derby qualification. More likely that they’re hoping to recoup some of the $775k purchase price and have decided that’s not going to happen in California. This isn’t much of a field, but Cox has Zozos (9-2) stretching out just 19 days after a debut win at 6f. Go-to rider Geroux is aboard.
The exodus has commenced.
Steve, would it be possible for this site to create an easy-access archive like you had at your previous home?
There is a search engine in the upper right hand corner where the magnifying glass is . It will take you to whatever column your looking for
Not in my view on phone or computer. There’s only a drop-down on the top when “Steve Haskin” is clicked on the navigation bar.
One paper the Sam Davis is posing a significantly greater handicapping challenge, as the field appears more competitive. But is it really? Whereas the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is proving to be suspect. The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is proving to be ultra-significant as a measure of talent.
BCJ 2nd and 3rd place finishers Pappacap and Giant Game returned with disappointing performances. The 5th place finisher Pinehurst was comprehensively beaten in the San Vincente although finishing 2nd.
In total contrast, the 4th place finisher in the KJC, Ben Diesel led the Smarty Jones field at a merry clip from a wide draw and faded late. He returned to finish good 3rd in the Southwest. Next Up was 5th place finisher Call Me Midnight. He closed rapidly to win the Lecommte. Next up was 3rd place finisher White Abarrio who was forwardly placed in the Holy Bull before asserting his authority in the lane for an impressive win.
The Sam Davis will feature the 2nd and 5th place finishers from the KJC. Classic Causeway and Howling Time. Both were also the first and second choice in the wagering. Given the trend established by entrants form the KJC. It is therefore a no brainer that the winner is likely to emerge from one of the two.
The most likely winner of the two is Classic Causeway, the 2nd place finisher and post time favorite in the KJC. Judging from his works. He has been trained to the minute for this assignment. His last 4 works were 5F, 5F, 6F & 7F. I cannot ever recall seen those drills for an 8 1/2F assignment. Was he overworked?
Howling Time led and faded badly in the KJC. Given the performance of Giant Game in the Holy Bull. There can be absolutely no confidence this colt will perform to an acceptable level. It wouldn’t be a stretch to conclude that Dennis Moment represent the blueprint for Dale Romans 3YOs.
The above two are the obvious. But being a longshot hunter, their likely starting prices have no appeal.
I was very much in favor of Yabir, who ran twice 12 furlongs and twice made big moves through the field! I expect to see Yabir for many years to come, he’s a long winded gelding.
I was torn between Yibir and Space Blues. Also delighted that Yibir won and looking forward to watching more races!
11:16 a.m. of Friday, February 11, 2022 (AEDT)
Time in Melbourne VIC, Australia.
Hi Davids !
regarding your question about the intriguing UAE 2000 Guineas featuring truly international field (horses coming from Sweden/Norway/Denmark, Russia and South America)
I am with Sadaaty over Rawy.
After watching the winning debut (on January 15) of Sadaaty defeating Rawy at Jebel Ali I concluded that the son of Munnings is better than the Frosted colt. As you know, Rawy won easily a 1400m-race at Meydan just 6 days later… but this time he won’t have an easy lead.
I am including the Brazilian Kiefer ( DROSSELMEYER – CONDOLEZA (BRZ), BY MACHO UNO ) and impressive debut winner Bendoog (GUN RUNNER – NELLIE CASHMAN, BY MINESHAFT ) in the exotics.
Thanks Nelson, the UAE 2,000 Guineas should be run around 2:10 am Saturday morning if the Meydan Race Card is correct with Race 3. 19:10 pm on Friday. I may still be awake then as we’re going to see Die Walküre tonight – it runs for 5 hours 15 minutes with two lengthy intermissions (3 Acts). Everyone will by flying out the door with 35 minutes of “Ride of the Valkyries” ringing in their ears in Act 3 after a good sloshing of champagne throughout the night.
Yes, I fear Rawy might not get an easy enough trip as last time but he did look impressive in the Guineas trial. Allez Rawy!!
That sounds like a beautiful pair up of events, Davids. Enjoy the music and the champagne!
Thank you, so much. The reviews have been great so the anticipation is very high.
Enjoy your special night Davids… I hope you don’t have to ware masks for the spectacle.
Watching the races with Wagner reverberating in your head must be a soothing sensation.
Thanks, Nelson. Unfortunately not, masks are still compulsory and as much as you try to pretend it doesn’t affect your enjoyment, it does. More champagne helps though. ha ha
Die Walküre was brilliant, everything you would expect and more. I doubt the UAE 2,000 Guineas result will have little impact on the UAE Derby. Upward and onward.
I am glad you fully enjoyed the poetry in the air last night as the race was not poetry in motion at all…
Crazy! For a brief moment, I thought you wrote that it’s 5 hours and 15 minutes.
Ha ha The full “Ring Cycle” is 15 hours, over 4 days. I’m getting off lightly, so to speak.
I read that violent criminals in Germany were forced to attend the full cycle as their sentence.
Ho jo to ho! Hope you enjoyed it!
One of the highlights was when the roof of the house in Act 1 (the humans) was flattened mechanically live on stage to become clouds in Valhalla in Act 2. Forming the stage platform from which Wotan and Fricka dispute, plot and counter plot their future of ‘family values.’ Amazing, when you consider a tree was growing through the roof in Act1.
Friends, who are actual stage designers themselves, lead the applause. Absolute triumph, many international critics believe that this Die Walküre was up to any version they have seen anywhere.
That sounds absolutely spectacular!
Bendoog by GUN RUNNER? ….. Bendoog!!!!!!
Good luck.
Was cheering for Rawy in this race. Oh well, better luck next time.
I just watched a replay, oh well. Lucky we were still out, after seeing Die Walküre, to see the race live. The Wagner opera was absolutely brilliant though and the sets, costumes were inspirational. You can’t have everything, I guess. Ha ha
Sounds like you had a lovely evening.
Have two community theatres (one here and one in the next little town, about 20 minutes away) and there is a neat little venue close by that has some really good local bands, different music genres and the new Downton Abbey film is premiering at out theater. More than ready to get out and about.
Really not ready to venture out in to closed settings with a lot of people, though.
Covid is on the decline here (mostly Omicron). I am fully vaccinated and have received the Moderna booster, wear my mask in public, still use Lysol sanitizer etc but still a bit leery. My significant other tested positive for Omicron on NYE. Had to go to regional hospital (an hour from us) to get tested. He was fortunate (coughing, chest congestion, fever, exhaustion, but his chest x-ray was clean). I had all the symptoms of the Delta variant back in September. It was rough. I did not contract the Omicron from him but on the advise of the ER doctor, I self-quarantined for 10 days. I did not get tested for Omicron. He is back at work (was off two weeks), still coughs a lot.
So for now I am having to be content with what I can live stream. Thank goodness “Outlander” new season starts in a few weeks.
I’ll be quiet now.
That’s it, Lynda. You take every precaution, we all marched in to get the Moderna booster as soon as it was available, you sanitize religiously everywhere etc but as soon as you’re in a mass gathering your confidence at staying safe evaporates.
At least here in Melbourne, most adults have been vaccinated with the booster now and the children are catching up fast. It’s the only way everybody can be safe again.
The AntiVax protesters in New Zealand are being blasted with big sound systems playing Barry Manilow and the Macarena in a permanent loop … I am not sure they will be disbanded by that tactic but it would be good material for comics around the world !
“Can’t Smile Without You” …. 30 or so times doses should do the trick. Ha ha
Simplification and Mo Donegal are my favs.
Like Simplification.
Eclipse Awards tonight:
2-Year-Old Male: Corniche, Jack Christopher, Modern Games
2-Year-Old Filly: Echo Zulu, Juju’s Map, Pizza Bianca
3-Year-Old Male: Essential Quality, Life Is Good, Medina Spirit
3-Year-Old Filly: Clairiere, Malathaat, Santa Barbara
Older Dirt Male: Knicks Go, Maxfield, Mystic Guide
Older Dirt Female: Letruska, Marche Lorraine, Shedaresthedevil
Male Sprinter: Aloha West, Flightline, Jackie’s Warrior
Female Sprinter: Bella Sofia, Ce Ce, Gamine
Male Turf Horse: Domestic Spending, Space Blues, Yibir
Female Turf Horse: Loves Only You, Santa Barbara, War Like Goddess
Steeplechase Horse: Baltimore Bucko, Snap Decision, The Mean Queen
Owner: Godolphin, Juddmonte Farms, Klaravich Stables
Breeder: Calumet Farm, Godolphin, Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings
Trainer: Steve Asmussen, Chad Brown, Brad Cox
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr., Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario
Apprentice Jockey: John Hiraldo, Charlie Marquez, Jessica Pyfer
In addition to honoring the 17 winners in the horse and human categories, Justin Mustari will receive the Eclipse Award as the 2021 Horseplayer of the Year. Members of the media will be honored for outstanding coverage in six categories.
Predictions anyone?
Hi Lynda…! thanks for the reminder. The one and only EddieF accepted a challenge for fun back in November. I gave him my prognosis and he listed his.
Below is the copy of my projection for 2022 Eclipse awards:
“”””Hey Eddie F …! Just for fun … Since we dead heated for the silver medal in the BC Longshot contest here, lets settle the matter with guessing Eclipse Winners. If we dead-heat again the
My selection below:
Horse of The Year: Knicks Go
Older Dirt Male: Knicks Go
Three Year Old Male: Essential Quality (with 214 votes), 30 votes for Medina Spirit, 5 for Life is Good
Two Year Old Male: Corniche
Older Dirt Female: Letruska
Male Sprinter: Jackie’s Warrior
Two Year Old Filly: Echo Zulu
Three Year Old Filly: Malathaat
Male Turf Horse: Domestic Spending
Female Turf Horse: War Like Goddess
Female Sprinter: Gamine
Steeplechase Horse: The Mean Queen
“””
I only remember EddieF postulating Dr. Shivel against Jackie’s Warrior … but he may have a copy of his prediction… I cannot seem to retrieve it from old comments under Steve’s columns in November.
2-Year-Old Male: Corniche
2-Year-Old Filly: Echo Zulu
3-Year-Old Male: Essential Quality,
3-Year-Old Filly: Malathaat
Older Dirt Male: Knicks Go
Older Dirt Female: Letruska
Male Sprinter: Jackie’s Warrior
Female Sprinter: Ce Ce
Male Turf Horse: Space Blues
Female Turf Horse: Loves Only You
Steeplechase Horse: No thoughts since I do not follow Steeplechase regularly.
My predictions are pretty much the same as yours with a couple of exceptions.
As to Owner and Breeder, have to go with Godolphin on both (however good to see Calumet nominated for Breeder) The organization has had, I think, a pretty phenomenal year.
Not sure what criteria is for trainer, but the three nominees (Cox, Brown and Asmussan) are at the top of the leader board on the BH site for 2021. Just a guess, but going with Brad Cox.
Jockey of the Year, again not sure of criteria but Irad Ortiz Jr., Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario are all in top 5. Prat has the highest win percentage per starts, so going with him.
Horseplayer of the Year – no idea at all. Do not keep up with that.
Thank you for posting your selections.
Wow! One race in the U.S. and Loves Only You takes the Eclipse!
It happened only once before with Arazi…
I did not see that coming… I am happy for the Japanese Breeding industry…
We will see more Japanese presence in America after this recognition.
Yibir with his two wins here was not in my calculations either but the Breeder’s Cup weighs a lot in these decisions…
I did pretty good other than Rosario and Yibir.
Congratulations to all!
Congrats to you Lynda… You won with your selections of Ce Ce and Loves Only You Lynda.
Thank you Nelson.
I think the Japanese celebrating her win also won the Racing moment of the year (that the fans vote on).
Their enthusiasm and love of the sport and the horses is so contagious. When their champions retire, the send off are a big celebration.
LOL, when I watched that race I found myself cheering myself.
EddieF just conceded I was ahead of him (with JW) in our particular contest we set in November but you were most accurate with your prediction….
Yes, I had to pick a couple that you didn’t pick so I wouldn’t have to rely on the tiebreaker. It was before the Malibu in December where Dr. S ran an unexpectedly poor race. As neither Dr. S or Smooth Like Strait were nominated, my chances in those categories are not good. LOL. We go to the tiebreaker if neither Jackie’s Warrior or Domestic Spending wins; but a win by either gives you the prize. I didn’t think either of us picked the steeplechase category, but your list has it. So I’ll also go with The Mean Queen because I know absolutely nothing about steeplechase.
Horse of The Year: Knicks Go
Older Dirt Male: Knicks Go
Three Year Old Male: Essential Quality (with 200 votes), 40 votes for Medina Spirit, 9 for Life is Good
Two Year Old Male: Corniche
Older Dirt Female: Letruska
Male Sprinter: DR. SCHIVEL
Two Year Old Filly: Echo Zulu
Three Year Old Filly: Malathaat
Male Turf Horse: SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT
Female Turf Horse: War Like Goddess
Female Sprinter: Gamine
Thanks EddieF.
Curious to see how the split of votes for 3-year-old male though…
Congratulations, Nelson You Da Maan! JW did it for you!
Thanks Eddie … ! I must have more faith in foreign runners…. LOL
You were much closer in the splitting of votes though:
Essential Quality, 131; Medina Spirit, 84, Life Is Good, 18; Hurricane Nation, 1; Hot Rod Charlie, 1.
Nice to see Medina Spirit with a lot of support…!
I think that MS may have picked up some sympathy votes. 🙁
I don’t wanna say i was right on everything……..but yea………..not hard…….
u r sad!
Kudos to the racing sec at TBD for putting together a full and competitive field for the Sam F. Davis. Seven of the 12 won their last race and 3 were second. If Classic Causeway and Howling Time finish as the exacta, will Smile Happy be given a No. 1AAA ranking next week? Just No. 1 doesn’t seem sufficient.
I am watching a lot of replays to just trying to guess which of the non-favorite-horses could make a big jump in the Sam F Davis against Classic Causeway and Howling Time… a bit of hope for a longshot is the track’s reputation of being “quirk”.
As you said, the race is so open that a 20 to 1 shot like Unpredictable Bay could very well steal the race (i.e. speed of speeds kind of situation).
Let’s wait to read how the other kind contributors here see the race unfolding…!
Did you watch Strike Hard in the Mucho Macho Man? I couldn’t tell if he changed leads in the stretch. He’s had such a problem changing leads that it’s even mentioned in four of his running lines! He has certainly loved the one-turn miles at GP, including 2nd-place finishes to Simplification and White Abarrio. Then there’s Shipsational with the best Brisnet speed figure in the field. Unfortunately, his regular rider, Luis Saez, has apparently made a choice to stay at Gulfstream on Saturday to run in two $100k turf sprint stakes, a maiden race aboard Pletcher’s Charge It (who debuted as the 7-5 favorite but lost by a neck to Volcanic), and the remaining nine race on the card!
Strike Hard lacked interest in the backstretch and was kind of disarmed when trying to cut between three rivals to confront Simplification coming to the homestretch. You are right … I don’t see him threatening anyone in the Sam F Davis if
he does not correct his flaws.
Watching the Eclipse Ceremony now…!
I noticed that also about the left lead in the PP’s. What a great betting race this appears to be. I have a question though and pardon my ignorance if it’s the obvious answer, but who is Sammy Davis which the race is named after?
Sammy Davis was the father of the great entertainer Sammy Davis Jr. But the race is named after Sam F. Davis, who was president of Tampa Bay Downs in the 1970s. To add to the confusion, Sam F was nicknamed Sammy in his youth until his parents realized that he had NO sense of rhythm.
I never liked my semantics class in HS which speaks volumes in regards to my inquire. But damn, it was worth the laugh you provided.
🙂
Nelson,
I really like this colt for the reasons detailed below. Is he good enough? That is to be determined. But what a 7-race series he has has been subjected to for what the industry classifies as a late foal.
Mark Casse’s Golden Glider might not have the speed numbers but from a stride mechanics perspective. I consider him the one to beat. He has to have better speed. His pedigree dictates same.
UNPREDICTABLE BAY (DOB MAY 8TH 2019)
Race Record: (Starts 7: 1- 5- 3)
06/26/2021 – Arlington Park (All Weather) 5F – 3rd by 14L (Final time – 56.97)
07/31/2021 – Arlington Park (All Weather) 5 1/2F – 2nd by 2 1/4L(Final time – 105.10)
08/19/2021 – Arlington Park (All Weather) 8 1/2F – 2nd by HD (Final time – 1:45.44)
09/14/2021 – Indiana Grand (Turf) 7 1/2F – 2nd by NK (Final time – 1:31.51)
10/02/2021 – Churchill Downs (Dirt) 8F – 2nd by 2 1/4L (Final time – 1:35.61)
10/31/2021 – Churchill Downs (Dirt) 7F – 2nd by NK (Final time – 1:23.68)
11/27/2021 – Churchill Downs (Dirt) 6F – 1st by 9 1/4L (Final time – 1:09.97) Eased 20M from wire.
A foal considered late made its first start in the month following the one in which it became fully two.
It made 7 starts at a 2YO – In the modern era, it’s a rarity to see a 2YO that is not a claimer with 7 starts.
It made starts at 3 different venues – New venue not a problem
It made starts on 3 different surfaces – Versatile
It made starts at 7 different distances – Versatile – distance limitation unknown
It has displayed excellent tactical speed in all starts – Has the speed to send from post #2 and hold to the line.
It has enjoyed 6 weeks between starts – As a late foal with an additional 6 weeks of development after 7 starts, will make this colt extremely dangerous.
It has raced without Lasix 6 times including last 3 stats. Not Lasix dependent
Any 2YO subjected to such a brutal series of races has to be of some quality to have the above race record
He is certainly worth a wager across the board. I would have loved blinkers off.
Good Luck with your wagers.
Hi CF… I agree with your two horses as viable longshots.
I was really impressed with Golden Glider’s debut at Woodbine… He broke hopelessly last very disconnected from the group after being bumped really hard at the start. Only a very good horse could have overcome that severe setback. The son of Ghostzapper confirmed his class by winning very easily at Tampa showing affinity to the track … besides it is always good to bet leading Jockeys of the hosting track …
I think Golden Glider can win the Sam F. Davis the same way his brother McCraken did in 2017.
I see Undpredictable Bay leading the way and could be fencing off any challenge at the end… Tampa has been amenable to speedy horses.
My humble trifecta box contains both horses with the hope of an ROI of at least 6 to 1…!
Having looked at no replays and given that this is a very even field on performance numbers, I’m going with Shipsational, who has had absolutely no buzz (not even here!). Love his performances as well as his name. Good luck and safe trips to all.
I buzzed him!!! (sort of)
What are parameters used to determine which is the best trainer ever in America?
Many believe Bob Baffert is the best trainer ever. But such an assertion ingnored the fact that the rest of the major racing jurisdictions race primarily on turf.
The Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer make for interesting reading for the last 20 years.
Robert J. Frankel (3 – 2001 -2003) We lost an excellent one
Todd Pletcher (7 – 2004-2007; 2010)
Steve Asmussen (2 – 2008-2009
William I. Mott (1- 2011)
Dale Romans (1- 2012)
Bob Baffert (1- 2015) American Pharoah TC year
Chad C. Brown (4 – 2016-2019)
Brad Cox (1-2020)
In the last 20years Bob Baffert has been voted Outstanding Trainer once. But he is the best trainer ever. It is to be assumed that it the BOW over a calendar year taht is used to in the determination. The record in the TC doesn’t seem to influence the voting. Bob didn’t secure the Outstanding Trainer Eclipse when Justify won the TC. Chad Brown whose charge he defeated with Justify in both the KD & Preakness won the award.
Bob Baffert has an excellent TC record. This cannot be disputed. But is this enough to assert he is the best trainer ever.
John Sherrif guided Zenyatta to 19 consecutive wins. To keep a horse fit, well and consistent for so many races isn’t exactly easy. Where does he rank amongst trainers? The same fans of Zenyatta are likely to regard BB as a significantly better trainer than John.
Bill Mott guided Cigar to 16 consecutive wins at multiple tracks and overseas. Cigar whose career was heading in the wrong direction was transformed by Mott. The HOF trainer had to secure a KD victory via the DQ of the winner. But he finished 2nd with a colt that qualified for a NW2 Allowance. But many consider BB a significantly better trainer than Mott.
Todd Pletcher is the trainer one of 3 fillies to win the Belmont. He has secured 7 Outstanding Trainer Awards to Bob’s 4. But BB is considered to be a significantly better trainer than Todd.
BB has won 7, Kentucky Derby. That’s a lot. James G Rowe won 8 Belmonts
Steve Asmussen has won the most races ever in America and operate stables all over the county. But BB is considered to be a significantly better trainer than Steve.
If record are goingto be the measure to assert who is the best trainer ever. That’s a flawed measure.
You keep going to great lengths to prove nothing. The greatest at anything is based on individual opinion. The man said possibly. Give it a rest already.
Charles Whittingham isn’t even on that list….list AND Eclipse seems slanted toward multi barn “barns”….
Agree that top trainers ever is extremely subjective. If I had a gun to my head to choose 3 trainers, I would select Baffert, Whittingham, and Frankel.
And Chip Woolley! 🙂
BTW, a story in BH yesterday about the suspension of Woolley carries a photo of the trainer with crutches — obviously from Derby week 13 years ago. Low blow.
BH file photo.
I know. Nevertheless….
Thinking rather would be Baffert, Baffert and Baffert.
I would have to say that the best ever in America would have to be a trainer that had success on both Dirt and Turf. I don’t have any stats in front of me, but, I don’t consider BB a Turf trainer at all. Sure, he’s had some winners on grass. Recently, he had Du Jour. But, you rarely see BB horses running in the biggest Turf Races around the country. BB is more of a Juvenile specialist. 2 & 3-year old races are his game. Some of his horses hang around for The Breeders Cup, but, how many 5-year old or older stars has he ever had? I’m not bashing the guy. As Steve Haskin points out, “the greatest” is purely an opinion. I’m sure that we all have our own favorites. Mine is Bobby Frankel. He was “money”.
I can understand someone wanted a versatile trainer who can win big races on dirt and turf. American turf racing is secondary to American dirt horses. It’s ingrained into our horse racing breeding. Baffert has won more triple crown races than any trainer in history, he’s won more breeders cup classics than anyone, he’s second in total breeders cup races won, only trainer to win two triple crown horses, only trainer to win the grand slam (American Pharoah), only trainer to win 3 consecutive breeders cup classics. He’s incredible with sprinters, he’s incredible with female horses, he’s would be successful with olders if they didn’t go to the breeding shed so quickly due to winning so much. He develops champions continuously. Embrace the historic significance of this….
Are you his spokesperson?
LOL. A job’s a job!
LOL. Just did a quick stat check….Bobby and Charlie would be part of my barn all star trainers. Frankel would take my turf stars and claimees; Charlie would take the older group, especially long on dirt and turf…
LOL. Just did a quick stat check….Bobby and Charlie would be part of my barn all star trainers. Frankel would take my turf stars and claimees; Charlie would take the older group, especially long on dirt and turf…
Bobby Frankel was a genius with horses. He died much too soon.
For sure!
I don’t know who is the greatest trainer ever, but an outstanding one who is always forgotten is Eddie Neloy, who trained for the Phippses in the 60’s and early 70’s. Yes, he was helped by Bold Ruler’s spectacular two-year-olds, but Bold Ruler had nothing to do with Buckpasser, Gun Bow, Poker, and Impressive. Mr. Neloy and his stable were awesome in their era, and if he hadn’t died at the age of 50, who knows what he might have accomplished? Of course, we can’t judge him on what might have been, but what he did do should give him at least an honorable mention among memorable trainers.
I had not pay attention to the change in Trainers underwent by Derby entrants in the past; but the possible exodus of Baffert’s Derby hopefuls triggered my curiosity around the impact of horses changing barns while still pointing at the Derby since 1990.
The following are some relevant examples albeit with different time windows from the ones looming in Baffert’s case. All of the horses mentioned below (except War Emblem) had enough time to adapt to the new regimes.
War Emblem is the closest analogy to what might be happening to Baffert’s Derby prospects. The Derby and Preakness winner was transferred from Frank Springer to Baffert in mid April… the shift only two weeks before the Derby was safe indeed.
Big Brown went from Patrick Reynolds to Richard Dutrow in September 2007.
Always Dreaming was trained by Dominick Schettino until Aug 2016 when Todd Pletcher took over.
Animal Kingdom went from Wayne Catalano to Graham Motion in November 2010.
Mine That Bird who was the champion 2-year-old in Canada under David Cotey and went to Bennie Woolley Jr for his US (pre-Derby) campaign.
The brilliant Medaglia D’Oro was trained by David Vance before going to Robert Frankel in Feb 2002.
It is well known how Curlin was bought and placed under the management of Steve Asmussen in February 2007. Helen Pitts was the trainer responsible of Curlin’s early development.
Pioneerof The Nile was trained by Bill Mott until October 25th 2008 when he went to Bob Baffert.
Peace Rules was trained by Gary Contessa before moving to Robert Frankel care in October 2002.
Bellamy Road came to Nick Zito in Oct 2004 after being trained by Michael Dickinson.
High Fly went from William White to Nick Zito in February 2025.
High Limit was moved from Anthony Dutrow’s barn to Robert Frankel’s in November 2004.
For the sake of brevity I am not revisiting the good performances that took these dozen horses to the Derby; nevertheless, from this sample and from many other cases, I may conclude that the change of barns was not detrimental to pre-Derby forms… Derby outcomes are very different beasts as you all know…
You may reappraise the situation as per your own lenses but it seems like it takes more than one good trainer to mess up a good horse.
I was thinking about the same thing but was too lazy to do the necessary work. Thanks for your research! Seems like there were no changes in February or March that led to a Derby victory. I believe that Wooley received MTB late in the previous year. War Emblem changed barns after the final prep in April. We’re in uncharted territory, at least for 30 years or so.
Great research
Thanks Steve … I really appreciate it your words.
Not to forget Rachel Alexandra, Hal Wiggins was her regular trainer up to her Kentucky Oaks victory. Rachel Alexandra was sold to Stonestreet Stables and Harold T. McCormick while her training was taken over by Steve Asmussen.
Next race, Rachel Alexandra won the 2009 Preakness Stakes.
But Rachel wasn’t a Derby hopeful (Nelson’s topic). Wasn’t there a Derby winner from long ago that changed hands somewhere along the Derby trail? I seem to recall reading about an old timer. Or maybe it was a movie. 😉
I didn’t reference Rachel Alexandra as a “forgotten horse” but as an interesting “what if.” Considering how Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks then beat the colts in the Preakness Stakes has, arguably, more grist for the mill than many others mentioned above.
RA was gutted after her last race w/ males. Overkill! Pushing her too far contributed subpar 4 yr. old season. Disgrace!
Nelson, is Rawy going to win the UAE 2,000 Guineas? Can he run longer than a mile?
I am surprised War Emblem wasn’t at the top of your list, given your regards for the trainer sanctioned by CD. But your examples are sufficient to support your conclusion which has omitted an important fact.
It is noteworthy that the examples you have provided do not involve transfers from the barn of trainer sanctioned by CD. The transfer of KD Prospects from the barn of the tainted trainer rarely if ever occur. As a result, there is no data on which an objective conclusion can be reached. But other transfers can be used to arrive at a conclusion involving skepticism.
Let review a few recent transfers:
Life Is Good – He was transferred from one High-tech trainer to another. The continuity of a high-tech program was ensured. He returned from lengthy layoff and has performed like many BB horse do after same. – Improbable Connected. McKenzie Cupid, American Pharoah to name a few.
Following Sea – Two wins from 6 starts. Has been consistent but based on his OK Park win, more was expected.
Concert Tour – Once regarded as the tainted trainer’s best KD prospect. Finished last by 16L after transfer
Bezos – He worked 5F in 58 plus twice and was all the rage before his debut. Was last seen struggling home 4th in a $50K claimer
Hozier – He finished 2nd Concert Tour in the Rebel off a MSW win. His future was extremely bright. He was last seen finishing 7th in an optional claim.
I get the point you are endeavoring to make. But transfers rarely occur from the barn of the tainted trainer. This is despite many of his KD prospect going sour whilst on the trail. His record with KD prospects is of such, that he is expected to fix anything issues that might arise. As result, many of his owners opt for retirement instead of transfers. If BB can’t fix it no one else can.
The likes of Thousand Words, Eight Bells, Cezanne, Uncle Chuck etc., could have been transferred to different barns when they either underperformed or race sparingly. But they remained with the tainted trainer.
The owners of the talented Game Winner were advised that the colt had gone sour on was unable to retain weight. There was the option to try another trainer, but he was retried. I am not sure which unsuspecting SA country he now stands.
I fully understand that you are trying to eliminate any fears and/or reservations, regarding the transfer of horses on the Derby Trail from the barn of the tainted trainer. But horses that are associated with said barn are subjected to High Tech conditioning. Continuity of said conditioning is required for continued high level performances.
The concerns and/or reservations that exist reading these likely transfers are not deemed as having no foundation or basis in fact.
Another Professor Orptev. Nelson’s post is about Derby runners that had changed barns. And War Emblem was the first one mentioned. Your entire post is irrelevant.
At least you understood what he said. I gave up halfway through. I should have given up after the War Emblem reference, but continued on out of curiosity .Then he completely lost me.
Did I miss something about the trainer of Eight Belles, Larry Jones? “After Eight Belles’ breakdown, Jones was accused of drugging the filly or running an unsound horse and received hate mail from people who felt that he was to blame for the tragedy. Tests done on Eight Belles proved she had run clean.”
Mr. Jones is a clean trainer for sure.
Being negative is the least of your many faults. Ignorance is the most obvious. If you read Nelson’s post, then you display ignorance because you failed to understand what was written. If you didn’t read the post, you display ignorance just by replying. Nelson listed, from what I can see, all Derby runners since 1990 that had changed hands at some point in their careers. That’s all. Nothing to do with success or lack of success. What is ridiculous is you saying that you have sense.
I know we have set rules about name calling, but I have to admit I wanted to respond the same way you did so I’m leaving it alone. The only time we ever hear from him is when he has has something negative or derogatory to say. When you add the fact that he compounded his negativity and criticism by having no clue what he was talking about, then it must be addressed, and with him, harshly for Nelson’s sake and all the hard work he put in.
I won’t mind if you remove his post and my reply. 🙂
Thank you Nelson. This is very interesting information. I did not realize that so many of the top horses since 2000 had changed trainers hands.
I was going to add Rachel Alexandra to the list but read below that Davids had already done that.
Next time you’re with your fellow horse racing pals, and they ask you your opinion on Baffert and the Derby, you can reply with….are you ready?….here it comes…
It’s messy, eh?
Now that you mention racing pals it is kind of sad that all my friends here know close to nothing about current horse racing… the only medium I have to share with Horse Racing Pals is this forum.
We feel free to disclose personal opinions about Horse Racing despite no one asking for it…
so… yes… it’s messy. I even thought that with all the litigations hovering around Baffert he would see his efficacy going down; but he has won an average of almost 2 Stakes per week this year… which confirms that he has built a true solid system to generate profits to his owners.
While professional haters throw stones at him he keeps throwing Stakes winners… !
Everything comes to an end Nelson.
Nelson, looks like the joke had the opposite effect from what was intended. You know…Messier…Messi – er/ French…Messy, eh?/Canadian.
My situation is the same as yours. No friend or family member has any interest in following the sport of horse racing. Like you said, folks here are my horse racing “pals.” The best part is we don’t have to exchange gifts at Christmas. Be glad, not sad.
So, Thanksgiving is still on then!! Lol.
Just because one thinks there should be some level of accountability, that makes you a “hater”? Okay, fine.
Look, he’s quite possibly the greatest trainer in the history of the sport and – before all the you-know-what hit the fan – was also its greatest ambassador. That’s what makes this whole thing so sad. It may be unfair, but in the court of public opinion (the 99% who don’t follow horse racing), he’s now believed to have repeatedly cheated. It gives me no pleasure to say that.
“Look, he’s quite possibly the greatest trainer in the history of the sport”
I have seen the above unfound statement several times before in different forums. It would be useful to supporters of this space if you could provide the foundation on which your assertion has been made?
Always remember – That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence – Chris Hitchens
In all seriousness. America is the only country of the major racing jurisdictions that races primarily of dirt. There are European trainers (true horsemen) that are clean as a whistle that would make BB look like an armature.
The top European turf horses that participate in the Breeder Cup dominate the US biased turf horse. Many times, it’s the European’s second strings that are sent over. BB can’t win a decent turf race if his life depended on it. And all he is facing is turf king Chad Brown and few other brilliant American based turf trainers.
Mike Maker visit Royal Ascot regularly with American bred horses and has gained respect for his success at the highest level in turf racing. Why hasn’t BB venture out of his dirt comfort zone to compete against world class trainer?
I often wonder if American have any concept of what being the best ever represents. It certainly isn’t always by American standard.
First off he said quite possibly. Thats his opinion. Now supply facts to refute it and say who is. And its Wesley Ward who runs at Royal Ascot regularly not Mike Maker.
EDIT:
Wesley Ward visit Royal Ascot regularly with American bred horses and has gained respect for his success at the highest level in turf racing. Why hasn’t BB venture out of his dirt comfort zone to compete against world class trainer
Your “friends” here have alot in common to those friends……
Your friends are imaginary.
Boom!
Go to sleep!
Eddie F:
I presume you meant to say MESSIER. And like several folks who commented here, I too have few friends interested in racing. This blog is a lifeline, no matter how offbeat the participants are. Love to all!
I’ve already placed my failed joke in a cardboard casket. May it rest in peace.
I have read on several blogs and viewed on some Youtube channels there seems to be concensus that Messier is now the leader of the 3YO male division. Obviously, this determination is based on the colt’s Bob Lewis win. I am happy to see that Steve was more measured in his assessment of the performance. See Blow:
“But he really didn’t beat much – a bunch of maiden winners and a grass horse”
By what margin should a post time favorite retuning $0.60 on the dollar, defeat the opposition?
I guess it depends on the opposition. In Messier first start he was the post time favorite retuning $0.50 on the dollar. He finished 2nd. In fairness to Messier, an Empire Maker colt isn’t expected to win over 5F against good sprinters. In his 2nd start he won over and returned $0.40 on the Dollar. An Empire Maker colt recording fraction of 21.44; 56 &1:10. Wow! He won the Bob Hope with even faster fractions going a furlong longer – 21; 43; 1:09. He returned $0.20 on the dollar.
In Los Al Futurity he was retuning $0.50 on the dollar but ran into a colt that didn’t listen when told to SLOW DOWN ANDY. He was defeated by the same margin of his debut loss i.e.,1L. So, Messier has met one quality opponent his last 4 start and was beaten. Despite that occurrence, Messier is still considered the leader of the 3YO male division. Slow Down Andy defeated an opponent that had been the 1/5 post time favorite in all its starts, and he is an after though. Interesting! I was of the opinion that to be the best you have to beat the best.
Cabo Spirit the 18/1 runner up in the Lewis made its first 3 starts on dirt before switching to turf. On debut he was defeated by Pinehurst by 13 1/2L. In his next 2 starts he was defeated by 11L & 5 1/2L. A combined 30L margin of defeat on dirt, suggest the surface should be avoided. How many of the colts in the upper echelon of the division wouldn’t
have destroyed Cabo Spirit wh competitive surface is turf??
Slow Down Andy was assigned an Equibase figurer of 94 for his debut win. Messier was assigned a 76 for his 1L loss on debut. The colt with the better debut number emerged the winner in the Los Al Futurity. Why shouldn’t Slow Down Andy continue his superiority over Messier? What exactly has changed? Unless Messir has a monopoly om improvement, it has to be assumed that during SDA’s absence, he has likewise improved.
It is interesting to note that the KD sanctioned trainer is the only in his field taht can get the progenies of Empire Maker to display exceptional speed.
Bodemeister – A very fast Empire Maker colt – Was beaten in the KD and Preakness. Done after Preakness.
Pioneenof The Nile -A very fast Empire Make cot was beaten in the KD and Preakness. Done after Preakness
Bazos – Was supposed to be so fast he made into the KD Future Pool without a start. Disappeared after maiden win.
Meisser – There cannot be lot of optimism regarding the future of this colt. Too fast for his pedigree.
You’ve never like one horse in about 17 years……..you list 20 a year…….guess what?
Steve, finally getting around to the Week 4 Sweet Sixteen. I so enjoy reading the comments from others that I neglect to post my little list. I have never been one to have a long list (12 and now 16) but rather have a short, sweet and simple list most years. I did take attempt a longer list on Week 3 but have now revised it to a shorter one. And I am finally getting around to exploring the “Knocking At The Door” for this week.
My first list (in no paricular order) was as follows:
Rattle N Roll
Commandperformance
Tiz The Bomb
Emmanuel
Zandon
Slow Down Andy
Smile Happy
Pappacap
Chasing Time
Jack Christopher
Classic Causeway
Simplification
Giant Game
Revised list (in no particular order yet) and subject to change! The colts on the list are the ones that I am most interested in and was very pleased to see all of them but Chasing Time on the Week 4.
Pappacap
Zandon
Emmanuel
Simplification
White Abarrio
Smile Happy
Chasing Time
Based on their performances so far (especially Messier) I am leaning towards another Baffert trained colt winning the Derby this year (whether the horses are moved to another trainer if things go down hill for Baffert at the CD hearing or if Baffert’s suspension is lifter). I agree with the sentiment that the owner’s are going to leave their horses with Baffert until the last possible minute so they benefit from his training.
My personal favorite to go all the way and win the 2022 Derby is (at the moment) between Emmanuel and Zandon.
My sentimental pick this year(s) for the moment are the progeny from the now deceased stallions (Bernardini, Giant’s Causeway) I think the Bernardini colt has dropped off the radar. And the colts and fillies hitting the race track from Gun Runner’s first crop. Gun Runner has always been a favorite of mine and I have a feeling that he might very well become one of the top sires (5) in the next few year. Another sentimental favorite is White Abarrio. Always a special place in my heart for these horses that are purchased for less than 50,000 and whose connections are relatively unknown. Guess I am a chronic cheering gallery for underdogs.
Hoping for a big run from Classic Causeway in the SFD.
Very sensible list Lynda.
Bob Baffert got another Gun Runner colt named Taiba a $1,700,000 purchase by the same owner of Medina Spirit, Amr Zedan. The horse was getting ready to debut last summer but had to be rested for five months.
Taiba will be debuting in two weeks but I don’t think Baffert will be pulling off another Justify this time.
Thank you Nelson.
After a first look at the field for the Sam F Davis, I think that it’s more wide-open than I originally thought. There also seems to be plenty of pace to give the closers a chance.
I can’t argue with Steve having Smile Happy at the top of his Derby Rankings from the get-go (starting with Week 1). Smile Happy looks much the best in the Risen Star Stakes, IMO. More than likely, he’ll take most of the win money by post time.
Hi Steve – Tiz The Bomb was very washed up in the Holy Bull. McPeek after the race said he wants to give him one more try on dirt before throwing in the towel on his KY Derby chances. We know that TTB is a proven standout on the turf but layed a big egg in the Holy Bull. Do you believe TTB being so washed out could have been enough of a reason for him running such a clunker? I am hoping he is relaxed and not washed out in his next Derby prep race. I would like to see TTB run on the synthetic in the Jeff Ruby stakes at Turfway Park on 4-2. CD,s surface is often kind to horses that run well on turf or synthetic. I would like to see TTB bounce back in a big way. The Jeff Ruby stakes offers a whopping 100 points to the winner and you would have to believe that TTB could be the Favorite. I bet TTB at 10-1 in KDFW2 and hope to keep his hopes alive. Really excited for Zandon running next week in the Risen Star, I was fortunate to get him at 56-1 in KDFW1.
The Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs drew a field of 13 horses including Classic Causeway and Howling Time. A real nice card at Tampa on Saturday with 7 of the 11 races having 10 or more entries. Baby Yoda makes an appearance after his distant 2nd to Flightline and King Guillermo returns to the scene of his finest moment. Nest also entered on the card. Joe Talamo travels to Florida for the mount on Howling Time.
Howling Time is my early pick there… I hope the son of Not This Time takes to the track better than Brody’s Cause did.
In the Sam D. I watched Trademarks last two races at Churchill, he is a tough horse and will take some beating. Watch the races, forget the numbers.
Really looking forward to the Sam Davis, especially to see if KJC entrants continue to run well. It is looking very much like a key race. So, I am expecting both Classic Causeway and Howling Time to outrun their odds. Looks to be a good betting race too…
Sam F Davis dew a very strong and competitive field, Casse with 3 live ones. Fascinating race
Casse’s Flameaway beat Catholic Boy and Vino Rosso in the SF Davis at 10-1 odds.
I am so curious to see how Slow Down Andy performs against Smile Happy and Zandon… Hope he runs straight at Fair Grounds.
I like Zandon a lot, but I’m concerned about three straight races at 9f (or longer) to get to the Derby.
You are right to be… I hope Brown is able to keep him sharp as the son of Upstart showed good speed in his debut.
We all know that solid speed is paramount in the Derby.
Hi Eddie – I understand your concerns about Zandon, but his gallop out in the Remsen was very strong and maybe the 3 consecutive 9F races will work to his benefit and get him primed and prepared for the grueling 1 1/4 stampede of the KY Derby. First thing first Eddie. Zandon must deal with a very strong field headed by Smile Happy and will need to bring his running horseshoes to beat that one. Hoping Zandon is up to the task. He,s my KDFW bomber.
Hey, JoeP. I’m not too concerned about him doing well in the Risen Star. But it seems that trainers have given up on the three 9f preps to the Derby path. Since 2011, only Tax in ’19 has gone that route. Barbaro did it successfully in 2006, but his first 9f was a turf race. But you’re right…first things first.
I’ve been waiting to see how God Of Love handles dirt. Should be a fun race and looks wide open.
The projected hot early pace will definitely help his chances.
What makes the race so intriguing is the fact that some horses don’t get hold of the track. i.e. Brody’s Cause, Vino Rosso,
and others just love it…like Destin.
Very interesting race to watch indeed.
Yes, Nelson. Something to note though, it appears that the Tampa preps have a greater influence on the Belmont Stakes than the Kentucky Derby but this could easily change year by year. As well, they say the track at Tampa is much less demanding on the horses than in previous years.
Excellent betting opportunities … The Sam Davis is the most open prep so far.
Here’s another. Gulfstream Park this Saturday, Race 9. There are some interesting runners here. Charge It or Touch Code could be ‘Derby bound’ with impressive performances here. Worth taking a look.
His son of Violence drew wide but I really liked his comeback maiden win …
Smile Happy and White Abarrio are co-favorites in the KD Future Wager Pool 3. Below is how Steve’s 16 are seen by the official Derby odds maker.
1. Smile Happy 8/1
2. Zandon 30/1
3. Rattle N Roll 30/1
4. MESSIER 5/2 (All Others)
5. Newgrange 5/2 (All Others)
6. White Abarrio 8/1
7. Slow Down Andy 20/1
8. Emmanuel 10/1
9. Simplification 30/1
10. Mo Donegal 30/1
11. Early Voting 12/1
12. Commandperformance 50/1
13. Classic Causeway 50/1
14. Epicenter 15/1
15. Pappacap 15/1
16. Call Me Midnight 20/1
All other 3-year-olds 5/2
There is a big incentive for the players in betting Rattle N Roll at 30 to 1. Commandperformance at 50 to 1 looks like an intriguing bet as well…
Individual bets who are not among Steve’s 16 are: Chasing Time (15/1), Barber Road (20/1), In Due Time (30/1), Major General (30/1), God of Love (50/1), Happy Boy Rocket (50/1), Howling Time (50/1) and Make it Big (50/1). But they were covered in the Knocking on the Door segments.
I suspect that Major General, In Due Time and Howling Time will be at lower odds in the next pools…
If you thought that the “All others” option was heavily bet last time, wait until this one. Betting on “All Others” usually drops as the calendar advances. But there’s never been a year like this, with all current Baffert horses in the group. Could we see 6-5?
The Derby preps last weekend exemplify how difficult is the art of training racehorses. We saw Giant Game and Tiz the Bomb working out like top-notch hopefuls for the Holy Bull to just end up being no-shows in their 3-year-old debut. Contrasting these patchy outcomes, we had White Abarrio missing two weeks of training but running like he never missed a bit of preparation for his first race this year.
The performances of Simplification and Mo Donegal in the Holy Bull were already fully commented here but the real breakthrough performance belongs to Messier.
In my mind’s eye his easy workout-like Stakes win signals a promising transition to his 3-year-old campaign and is only marking an auspicious base line in form. As you expect from Baffert’s young horses, Messier will most likely be building up Derby form… I know … ! Possibly Baffert won’t be training any horses in Derby contention but by the time of the hand over at least 80% of his Derby winning job will be already done. Besides, from the statistics of Trainer shifts before the Derby one can conclude that the relinquished horses generally maintain or improve their form…
Messier is the leading hopeful of the 11 Derby nominated horses that the powerful partnership of nine owners (SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, Golconda Stable, and Siena Farm) confided to Baffert. I am sure any of these owners got first-class Trainers to keep the Californian based horses healthy and happy enough to uphold their Derby chances.
Messier represents the last Stakes horse hailing from the foundational families developed by Sam-Son Farm. This institution could be considered the most successful breeding operation in Canada until its dispersal in 2020.
As Steve and many of us have voiced ad nauseum, Messier is one of the fewer who will not be stretching into pain going 10 furlongs.
O Canada!
O Ontario …!!
So, Nelson, you’ve mortgaged the house, put all your money down on Messier to win, and are just waiting to cash in that winning ticket. You’re a brave, but perhaps foolish, punter. Good luck. Ha ha
Thanks for the good wishes but I am Not betting until I see the Derby post parade. The money is not on winning tickets but in the exotics…
The name of the game here is to comment on the ‘états de choses’. So, I perceive Messier as a leading contender today until I see another one running as fast as he did in his 3-year-old debut.
It is the glittering joy I felt with others as early prospects like California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Good Magic, Game Winner and Essential Quality… I enjoyed their shows as long as they lasted.
At least you cannot accuse me of being a man of little faith…
That’s what makes it exciting, Nelson. Change. Next weekend, a new runner could explode on the scene leaving Messier a mere fragment of a lost dream.
On November 27th, 2021, the following races were contested at Churchill Downs as part of a 12-race program.
MSW 6F – Unpredictable Bay was 1st by 9 1/4L—21.34; 45.31; 1:09.98 (Eased in the last 20M)
KJC 8 1/2F – Smile Happy was 1st by 3 1/4L- —-23.95; 48.94; 1:13.25 ;1:37.70; 1:43.94 (Much the best)
What’s the purpose of highlighting fractions from a MSW and those from a G2, Stakes won by a highly regarded KD prospect? This has to be considered a pertinent question. It’s like comparing cheese to chalk. Run Happy who is undefeated in two starts sits a top just about every Derby list. It required 7 starts for Unpredictable Bay to break his maiden. Form the aforementioned, it would appear that the two names do not belong the same sentence.
In the interest of full disclosure, I have not been diagnosed with any form of mental illness. So, my comparison is based on
Unpredictable Bay’s BOW from which I have determined he is a runner. But if he is a runner. Why hasn’t Steve t mentioned him in the KOTD section? Well, how many horses based at Arlington Park has Steve ever mentioned, particularly a NW3?
Unlike Smile Happy, The Cairo Prince sired Unpredictable Bay had an inauspicious debut and that’s being kind. He finished 3rd in a field of 5 by a whopping 14L. In fairness to UB a 5F race completed in 56.97 would have destroyed many non-sprinters. But interestingly, he contested the lead for the first 3F before fading badly over the final 2Fs. He finished 2nd in his next 2 starts AP over 5 1/2F, beaten by 2 1/2L and 8 1/2F beaten by a HD. In both races he was forwardly placed.
With no success on the All-Weather AP. He was sent to Indiana Downs for a turf try. He recorded another close 2nd place finish by a NK. It was then off the Churchill Downs for the first of 3 starts. He finished 2nd in his first 2 starts at CD to take his total in the runner-up position to 5. A trend had been established by then. His will to win appeared absent. He was beaten by the promising Trafalgar over 8F (1:35.61) by 2 1/2L whilst on an uncontested lead. He was then beaten over 7F (1:23.68) by a NK. Approximately a month later he returned over 6F and whilst returning $0.60 on the dollar, destroy a MSW recording the fractions and final time cited above.
He was assigned an Equibase figure of 99. This is where the comparison between Unpredictable Bay and Smile Happy takes significance. Smile Happy was assigned an Equibase figure 100 on the same day for his KJC win. But whilst there was a 1-point difference in the performance figures. The internal fractions and final times were miles apart.
The obvious reason for same would be. One was sprint race and the other route race. That reason would be pertinent if not for the fact that Unpredictable Bay is not a sprinter. If a 1;09 plus non-sprinter with class, can be rated in the in 1:13 plus when routing (3 1/2 seconds slower). There is no way a colt with Run Happy’s numbers can beat him. He would have more than enough left in the tank to repel any challenge. Run Happy has not been particularly fast.
Unpredictable Bay exited a 5 1/2F sprint at AP and was a next out runner up by a NK over 8 1/2F. He finished 2nd by 2 1/2 over 8F to Trafalgar in a good time of 1:35.61. His stride mechanics is not that of a sprinter by any stretch. This colt is very good. How good? That will be determined if he faces the starter in the Sam F Davis for which he is listed as probable/possible.
A May foal with 1:09 plus & 1:35 plus speed is dangerous. But is even more dangerous with a race record that reflects: (7 starts:1-5-1). In an era where thoroughbreds making less start at two. It is a rarity to see a May foal with 7 starts t two, with its first being a month after turning fully two. Further, the starts have been on 3 different surfaces and resulted in competitive performances. This colt appears to be the total package i.e., big, fast, versatile and consistent. With 2 months plus since his last start, he could improve to a level above the Sam Davis field. And then, he could also be one like so many that have flattered to deceive.
But to date he has proven to be genuine. I implore all who reads this post to revisit this colt’s maiden win (CD-R5, Nov 27th) and his runner up finish to Trafalgar (CD- Oct 2nd) and focus on his stride mechanic, particularly in the stretch. If he is sprinter, my assessment limitations are more severe than I am aware.
Commandperformance just had his 2nd workout yesterday. At this rate, he won’t be ready to run a race until mid-March. That means two prep races at the most. While I know that his Hall of Fame trainer can get him ready, I also know that Todd Pletcher likes to take time in between races. Does that mean only one prep race? It’s going to be tight.
I just looked at The Road to The Kentucky Derby races schedule. Commandperformance could be ready for The Tampa Bay Derby on March 12th and then go to The Wood Memorial, Bluegrass, or Santa Anita Derby four weeks later on April 9th. I doubt that he would choose The Santa Anita Derby, but, it would be an option. Or, Pletcher could wait an extra week and run in the final Derby points race on April 16th. The Lexington at Keenland. But, that would only give him 3 weeks until The Derby on May 7th. That doesn’t feel like something TP would do. And The Lexington is only worth 20 points to the winner if that becomes an issue.
Commandperformance currently has 6 points. I was thinking that Commandperformance is still a Maiden and Todd Pletcher could run him in a Maiden race for his first race back which would be a good prep for any of the 100-pointers on April 9th.
Steve wrote that the most logical path would be the TB Derby and the Blue Grass. Pletcher could squeeze in the FOY on February 12 instead of the TBD if he can get in three more works spaced 6 days apart. One thing is certain, Pletcher won’t send a horse to the Derby with just one prep.
FOY – March 5
Pletcher has indicated that Major General is most likely to run in the Tampa Bay Derby. In TDN, Pletcher did not mention Commandperformance with upcoming preps and possible runners. Something to think about.
Maybe Pletcher is already thinking Preakness for Commandperformance.
That may well be the case Ms Blacktype. In the latest TDN, Pletcher provided possible races for some of his more notable 3 year olds. Commandperformance was not mentioned but Pletcher pointedly did mention that the Triple Crown races also included the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
That Pletcher guy! He sure does know his horse racing. 🙂
42 prospects to choose from, as well.
This colt is too slow to win the KD.
You may be right, but, let’s wait until we’ve at least seen the 3-year old version of the colt before labeling him a plodder. I wonder if Todd Pletcher is thinking Belmont with Commandperformance.
KNOCK KNOCK
Everyone”s on break, just like the horses. Top 3…zzz. 4 and 5…Baffert blahs. 6…talked out. 7…zzz. 8…???. Even the future wager is reaching trying to find 23 horses.
‘
LOL….They can’t pick up a phone once in a while????
Bengals, Rams or the Clydesdales?
Budweiser has a new commercial featuring a Clydesdale and the Yellow Lab puppy (puppy all grown out now) and it is tear jerker.
AB is also running a contest on FB where you can pick your favorite between two Clydesdale commercials and you name will be entered to win a Budweiser Mini Fridge.
If the fridge holds only Bud cans, I’ll pass.
I do not drink beer or alcoholic beverages other than the occasional glass of mead. My husband however is a Budweiser man of many years. I think he would love that little fridge for his “man cave”.
Regardless. I love the Budweiser Clydesdales commercials.
Swore off football several years ago after all the controversies. Last Super Bowl I watched was 2016 when the Pats won. The Broncos were my team as was the NE Patriots.
Watched Pro football games for decades going back to Broadway Joe and the Jets when I was a kid. But as The Raven said ” Nevermore”.
I lost some interest in the NFL when they decided that defensive players could no longer decapitate quarterbacks.
Man City 2 – Brentford 0. Man City are now 12 clear in the Premier League.
Sub-par bowl trifecta:
1) Cincy straight up.
2) Cincy by 10.
3) Joe Burrow MVP (9/4 odds)
Reason: pressure is all on the Rams…as a rule younger persons have steadier nerves than older, and Burrow is younger! Weather wise, it’s close to 90 and dry windy all week, Sunday also.
Who’s there?
Exactly!!
Exactly!! Who?
First base!
Ah, ha. It’s way too early.
Mike “Theyyyyre Together” Battaglia!
Thanks for the updates again. I’ve seen some good racing but can’t get excited yet on any of them. Too early yet. Frankly miss the old days when they actually raced more then once every 5 weeks. Next thing they will want to change the TC schedule to make it easier for them. They’ve done it before but this current set up has been in place awhile. I also think it’s a disgrace with about 2 1/2 months left before the Derby they haven’t settled this Baffert mess yet.
Hi Steve
As always, another great analysis on your top 16 contenders. Most of us expected a high placement for White Abarrio after his super impressive win in the Holy Bull. He certainly got the attention of the odds maker in Derby Futures Pool 3, going from 171-1 in Pool 2, to 8-1 in Pool 3. I have White Abarrio boxed with Simplification in my $2.00 exacta wager in Pool 2.
I liked what you said about Simplification, that he’s “far from being a one-dimensional horse”, and you moved him up a few spots to #9. In addition, I feel fortunate to have big futures bets on 3 horses in your top 9 spots, Emmanuel at 75-1, RNR at 34-1 and Simplification at 43-1. A White Abarrio/Simplification finish in the KD would be a sweet exacta payout, $9099.00.
All of us appreciate the work you put in compiling you Derby Rankings, week after week.
Great job Steve.
Thanks Bill. Good luck with your bets.
You’re welcome, Steve, and good luck to you as well.
Thanks but I dont make future bets. I’d love to but it would cloud my objectivity.
I can’t say as I blame you for not making Futures bets. It’s been said “Futures bets are for suckers”.
I probably fall in line with the other suckers, but I couldn’t resist those enticing odds. I’m looking forward to the next start for Emmanuel and RNR. Those two races should tell us if they are legitimate Derby contenders moving forward on the Derby trail.
Of all the colts that haven’t raced since their 2yo finale, the most impressive training is from Slow Down Andy. Since the day after Christmas he’s had seven 5f works – one each week – and most of them were quick. O’Neill brought back I’ll Have Another and Nyquist from layoffs much longer than SDA’s. Both won their returns. The Holy Bull didn’t turn out to be the race most folks expected. The Risen Star should make up for that disappointment.
Happy Boy Rocket sure looks like a nice colt, but isn’t there a more deserving runner for the new KDFW? If Howling Time is given a mulligan, shouldn’t Dash Attack get one too?
The morning line odds are insane.
Excellent list Steve, well constructed. With the new norm of horses heading to the Derby these days with 2 or 3 lifetime starts, it feels next to impossible to sort out these young 3 year olds.
Horse racing like football is a copycat sport. Baffert with Justify won the Triple Crown with only 3 lifetime starts so I guess if it was done once it can be done again. White Abarrio’s race was breathtaking as was Messier’s.
I would only suggest that for me I would toss out the possible contenders who are lagging behind in their training workouts & race activity. It is a fine line between peaking too soon for a big race or having raced too many times.
It is difficult not to like the Baffert horses in the Derby but many folks always chase longshots. I see at least 7 or 8 horses capable of winning the Derby
Thanks for hard work you put into this each week, much appreciated.
Thanks Deacon. Race activity has become an oxymoron.
Just saw the Derby Futures, Forbidden Kingdom 10-1, if they ran the race tomorrow he’d be 30-1 ….Zandon 30-1 stablemate Early Voting 12-1 Battaglia out to run for president….
Rattle N Roll 30-1? I’d like Battaglia to book that,as well as Commandperformance at 50-1. I’ll go head to head with him on those two and Zandon at 30-1 against Forbidden Kingdom, Howling Time, and Happy Boy Rocket
Just down right silly, what does Battaglia see that we’re missing. Lovely guy, but…
Yes, the Chad Brown stablemate ‘disorder’ made me chuckle. Where are/were they running and against whom, basic. Lol.
Thank you for the analysis on our horse, Morello. Jose never even touched him. Good luck to all connections on the path to the first Saturday in May. We’re excited to be in the early conversation!
Thank you Dave and good luck with him. Loved your interview
Going into Sunday’s race, I thought that I had a pretty good idea about Messier. A good horse, but, not a great one. The more that I think about his huge performance on Sunday, the more that I think that I’ll have to see him do it again. Maybe he can back it up. Johnny V only rides 3 days a week out in California and only 3 -5 horses a day. But, the horses he rides are mostly good horses and well meant. He must feel like he is in semi-retirement out there. He’s winning at 26% at the current Santa Anita meeting.
I’d have to agree with you and Johnny Velasquez does look like the cat that ate the cream. Good for him.
Well no one can accuse me of playing chalk. Zandon and Rattle N Roll , my No. 2 an 3 horses are listed at 30-1 in the new Future Wager. I guess I missed something. And Commandperformance is 50-1. I’m totally losing touch. I look at some of the 10-1, 12-1, and 15-1 horses and I’m lost.
Stay the course, Steve. If I’m choosing between Steve Haskin and whoever makes the Morning Line of The Kentucky Derby Future Wager, my money is going on Haskin.
LOL. Thanks, but I just dont get those odds.
Looks like Battaglia is thinking that bettors will favor the recently raced colts over the standouts at 2. But even so, the low odds on some are baffling. Isn’t he supposed to be predicting the final odds?
Mike “GAIN-ING GROUND” Battaglia!
If he thought that then why is Smile Happy who has two starts and hasnt raced since November the favorite?
If I had to guess, I’d say it’s because Smile Happy has been the “post-time” favorite since the first KDFW (and ML fave in pools 2 & 3) and it would be difficult to move him from the top spot. But he’s not all by himself now in the morning line. He shares the honor with White Abarrio. And Emmanuel and Forbidden Kingdom aren’t far behind.
Ditto!
Methinks the idea is to gather up as much money in bets as possible, based on the latest flavor of the week.
Yes, but not to lose the house, your shirt, and reputation all in one go. Lol!!
I’ll bet Butter Pecan at 30-1.
From what I saw at the rail, White Abarrio looked like a colt that can go much farther than the Holy Bull distance. He looks so strong at the wire and he galloped out with so much energy that an outrider had to help pull him up. When he came back to the winner’s circle, no huffing and puffing. He looked as good as he did entering the gate.
IMO, most impressive winner of the weekend, excepting possibly Messier. But, like Steve, I am waiting to see what happens with BB before I get on his bandwagon.
That’s good to hear, Roberta. Unless you’re there the impression you get could be totally wrong. White Abarrio’s temperament should help him get the 10f. while a win in the Florida Derby wouldn’t surprise. Are you intending to go on Florida Derby Day?
Yes I will, Davids. I haven’t missed many Florida derbies in my life. Gulfstream isn’t what it used to be but I still like going for the big events.
Roberta, did you ever go to Hialeah when they ran the Flamingo, Everglades, Hibiscus, Bahamas Stakes? They were my favorite preps for three year olds when the track was truly beautiful.
I sure did! It was so gorgeous, the pine tree road to the entrance, the flamingos, the beautiful architecture, the saddling area and walking ring. I missed the great horses of the seventies, but I saw a lot of great ones in the eighties and nineties. And don’t forget the Widener for older horses. I really do miss Hialeah.
That’s right, Roberta. As well, a lot of people used to say that Hialeah was the safest track in the US as well. Such a shame, when I was there you felt you were going back in time with all the ‘Renaissance Revival’ architecture. Glamorous, with flamingos strolling around.
A few years back a ‘tech tycoon’ wanted to buy Hialeah and restore it back to it’s former glory but Brunetti declined the offer.
If there ever was a time to bring quality thoroughbred racing back to Hialeah Park, that time passed long ago. So sad.
Brisnet figs from the weekend: White Abarrio, 97; Messier, 104
If I had to choose a figure for my Derby hopeful in early February, it wouldn’t be a 104. Speed figures are just one of many considerations. But I don’t want a low-odds Derby horse that may have peaked too soon. I’ve seen too many of them disappoint.
Yes, if Messier was trained by Joe Nobody instead of Baffert the punting chorus would be screaming “peaked too soon, peaked too soon, peaked too soon” and they may just about be right, too.
Correct!
Messier could easily follow up with a 110 beyer next out if he is in training with Baffert. He won like a machine, and the best part about messier is not only his pedigree for long distances but his versatility allows him to stalk or lead. At this point, be real good horse to beat him. I’m discounting his losses at Los Al, Bob said he didn’t like the track.
Yes, he could follow up with an even bigger figure. But it’s the Derby that’s the goal. How many of his Derby winners had a similar fig at this time of year in a Derby prep route? And if you want to take BB’s word that Messier “didn’t like” the track at Los Al, are you concerned that the colt may not like the track at Churchill Downs?
Not saying i would bet Messier, but be difficult to beat. Messier at this point is the top 3 year old IN training for the derby (not counting Corniche), if he can perform similar to last Saturday I don’t think anyone can beat him. I do think he even has more in him as well, so we will see if traveling, a new trainer, and CD surface can upset the apple cart.
Jeff, who did Messier beat last weekend? Also, SKY ISN’T FALLING if your wonder horse switches barns….. I promise!!!!
I would have placed Mo Donegal right behind White Abarrio. I was impressed by his run and will strongly consider him next out.
The only reason I didnt was because he was being whipped at the 3/8 pole with no response and didnt start running until the eighth pole. He’s a very good horse and consistent closer, but if a closer is going to win the Derby he cant wait until until the eighth pole to start running. I want to wait until he gets back to 1 1/8 miles. That when he should show his best
Good point Steve. I’m only thinking to the next race, as opposed to the derby. I haven’t seen his other races but in this one he definitely seemed like the type of horse who can’t stop and start quickly. Not what you want in a big field like the derby.
Absolutely agree about Mo. Any horse that isn’t first or second or within about 2-3 lengths of the leader at the stretch call of the final prep will be up against it in the Derby. About 35 years of Derby history support that qualification.
Huge fan Steve!!
Thanks so much for keeping us informed and in the loop on all that is happening Derby-wise. It sure seems like an odd year is brewing. I feel like i must have missed some key info…but I’m wondering what happened to Corniche? Of course, I know about all of the Baffert stuff and such. But was Corniche injured? Or perhaps overworked as a two-year-old? I’ve read that he (Corniche) will tell his handlers when he is ready to move forward by virtue of the way he trains…but is that code for something…? Maybe they don’t see him as a Derby horse…and prefer the Preakness…? Any ideas or perspectives on this would be most appreciated.
THANKS AGAIN.
Thank you Steven. Corniche has been a mystery. He obviously had a setback and no one will comment or commit to anything. To me hes not a Derby candidate, not having a recorded work yet. I know as of now he wont go back to Baffert , but they may have a change of heart once they rule him out of the Derby
Good info Mr. Haskin.
According to Marette Farrell, racing manager for owner Speedway Stable, said the plan is for “Corniche to return to Baffert at Santa Anita”….(DRF).
I believe thats because they know he cant make the Derby. No sense giving him to another trainer
Agreed!
The last paragraph on week 4 is why I follow this site. Love stuff like that. Not to mention all the goodness above said paragraph. Thank you Mr. Haskin.
Amen!
Churchill Downs announced the 2022 early Triple Crown nominations today. In descending order, here are a few of the numbers: 326 were nominated last year. This year 312. 286 are colts. 250 are Kentucky-breds. 42(!) are trained by Todd Pletcher. 40 are owned by only two entities (Siena Farm LLC [24] and Madaket Stables LLC [16]). 25 (so far) are graded stakes winners. 19 are geldings (“Go, Eagle in Love!”). 18 (for the time being) are in the barn of Bob Baffert. 17 are over in Japan. 16 were sired by Gun Runner. 7 were bred by Calumet Farm. Including Echo Zulu and Secret Oath, 6 are fillies. Two
are over in Europe (Absolute Ruler and Enthrallment) and one is an Illinois-bred (Bureau).
Good stuff. One stat reminds us that it’s not Baffert that gets most of the high-priced and well-bred stock. It’s Pletcher.
Always has been
Certainly it’s been no contest in Triple Crown races: 17 (or 16?) to 5.
What about this year?
Steve Haskin-
Nice list and interesting rankings. Messier takes a big leap into the top five. Don’t mean to be a wise guy, but is horse named after Mark Messier? No. 11. Center. Edmonton Oilers. And later, member of the NY Rangers. If so, it’s an interesting link between horse racing and the NHL.
This weekend, there are a couple Derby preps that offer 10-4-2-1 points (Sam Davis and El Camino Real Derby). Then the 50-20-10-5 point Lecomte follows Feb. 19. I have a couple KD Future Book horses running this weekend at Tampa Bay, Golden Glider and Volcanic. The competition will not be easy and Derby points will be hard to come by. When I made these bets, I thought it would be an easier task. But, there always seems to be an opposing Pletcher horse or a comebacking grade 2 stakes winner ready to ramble in the race. Will need clean breaks and racing luck to stay on the Derby Trail.
Thanks for posting Derby Rankings Week 4.
7.5 Furlongs
I would think so. I cant imagine who else he would be named for. The colt is Canadian-bred.
Holy cow! I didn’t realize he was Canadian-bred. It’s been a long time since Sunny’s Halo. At least one horse named for a hockey star has won the Derby: Nyquist.
I’d go with Cournoyer. See if the track announcer can get it right.
Steve, thanks for a new look at mostly familiar faces. I have to say we’re pretty much on the same wavelength. That should give you pause!
When there are still a number of colts that have yet to debut this year, the analysis and comparisons are difficult. It’s almost like we need to have two separate rankings. I posted my prediction last night of your rankings and had Early Voting at #14 because I had a feeling you wouldn’t just give him the final spot. I think it was a special achievement for him to win a graded stakes in just his second start. So it was good to see him at #11. There’s still that NY prep jinx for the Derby that leads me to think that trainers are putting their slightly lesser stock in those races. Steve, what is your view on that subject?
Also, will you give extra consideration to the recent trend of Derby winners being undefeated at 3? It seems that trainers need to have their best colts in top form for both or all three preps, even after a winter break. Gone are the days of preps for the preps!
I was surprised, I thought Steve would put Messier at #1.. .and reading between the lines it looks like he would, and that is the shame of the2022 Triple Crown Trail, some very good horses being held hostage, as it were, Bob’s barn is not the largest–not even close, but Bob’s barn IS tops as fas as three year olds are concerned, and frankly I’m surprised that you can just be happy not seeing his horses run in the 2022 Derby, because it IS a lessor field, even if they all change barns late, change programs, it LOOKS like Churchill has decided to create a stressful situation by not having adjudication in a timely manner, yesterday. Messier ran the WOW race, I thought the filly even ran better, those three year olds are living in a state of anxious human workers, owners….probably having a late barn change, after Justify…Country Road…Authentic…Medina Spirit YET ANOTHER asterisk Derby. This year and next…
Country House….speaking of which—IRONIC, that as Maximum Security ‘s trainer is going through the legal gauntlet, for serious infractions…it was Bob, who took over training for the former $16K claiming horse that was winning Gr1’s, working :56 halves….Bob put him into his hard work programs, team works vs the high echelon of Thoroughbred talent—and it was Bob, who restored the reputation of Max, Bob who helped shake off the asterisk!
I cant put a horse No. 1 when I dont know who his trainer will be. You never know when a horse switches barns and runs in big races immediately.
No I’m not criticizing you Steve, and your reply informed me that I had thought things thru….it is sad..really sad that real good horses are leaving their real good trainer…70 year old man whose life IS the Triple Crown, getting stripped Ala Chuck Conners. In “Branded”…except Bob isn’t innocent and charges are mostly true…..Horse Racing is throwing him under the bus.
NOT thought things thru!
Are u serious?
I predicted Steve would have White Abarrio at #4 and Messier at #5. I figured he’d give greater weight to the quality of the field that WA faced.
He had four horses to beat. Two had terrible trips ,including the likely speed, one displaced, and one washed out. The quality of the field turned out to be meaningless. I’m also not sure how far he wants to go. He ran great but I want to see it again.
Qualifications can always be made, but there’s no way — at this point, anyway — I could be convinced that the HB was not a far superior field to the Lewis and that comparisons about quality aren’t meaningful.
It was superior. I never said it wasnt and I never compared the quality of the two fields. I’m not knocking a horse I have ranked No. 6 I thought Messier deserved higher ranking.
OK. I just think it’s an important measure without having the benefit of head-to-head comparisons.
It would be a measure if the other quality horses werent hampered and made any impact on the race. I dont want to debate the meaning of quality and how its interpreted. I explained my only reservations about the Holy Bull, but if these horses face each other again in the Florida Derby I certainly wouldnt be surprised if White Abarrio beats them again. I just want a little more time to study him closer and decide how I feel about him. He could wind up No. 1 at some point
I would love to do separate lists. Its like trying to combine parallel universes. The NY prep jinx is always on my mind, but people forget that if I rank a horse No. 11 and he finishes 11th in the Derby I done good, right? I’m reluctant to rank NY horses very high especially these early horses, who usually turn out to be slow. But Early Voting caught my eye especially running the same opening quarter as a 1-5 shot in a 6f race. One was beaten 10 lengths and one won. As for the undefeated at 3 trend, so many trainers give their horses 2 preps so I really have no idea who they are come Derby time and what price chasing points and winning every prep? . Of those undefeated horses, Nyquist, Always dreaming, Justify were done after the Preakness or Belmont. This is the era of the speed horse and no one wants closers in the Derby any more.
On the other hand, Chrome, AP, and 1st-to-the-wire MaxSec won big races after the Triple Crown. Maybe next year you can have two separate lists until early March.
Two of them are Hall of Famers. And the other one officially didnt win the Derby.
Of course. But the post-derby result of going all out to win the preps was not good for some, but good for others.
So its a wash. You can go by the trend or not
I think we lost the original question, that being about the Derby (not about after the TC). I will give extra points in the Derby to a horse that hasn’t lost between January and April.
Cant hurt
Maybe an Oaks Derby top 10 would be nice if you have any spare time…LOL
Regarding Eagle in Love, his breeding piques my interest! I love tidbits such as this, and who else but Steve would have picked up on it, with the exception of possibly Lauren Stich? I haven’t thought of Needles for years, a real blast from the past! I had always thought that Needles was named for the town situated on the fringe of the desert breeching California and Arizona. I later learned that it was due to his many close encounters with injections, necessitated by a host of maladies which he endured as a baby.
Needles….my family, making the trip from New York to California to work in the aerospace industry in San Diego passed through the town of Needles way back in 1956 when I was just a baby (according to accounts and oral history) where upon they saw a dog on the outskirts looking for food of this desert community with nothing (human) in sights and all by himself descided to pick up this abandoned dog and named him Needles.
He turned out to be a great pet.
Hi Steve – Tiz The Bomb was in trouble before they opened the gates, he was so washed out with sweat. Maybe his next try on turf he will be relaxed and show if he has it on dirt. Giant Game ran poorly because he flipped his palate and will have surgery to correct this. Really looking forward to a loaded Risen Star Field in two weeks. Looks like Call Me Midnight may go straight to the LA Derby. Hoping Zandon brings his A game and pulls the upset against the impressive Smile Happy. Thanks for your insightful analysis Steve, it will come in handy for me as I add another horse to my lineup this weekend with KDFW3 going from FRI to Sunday. Right now Zandon at big odds is my bright hope from KDFW1 and I hope to add another colt this weekend in KDFW3.
Thanks for the news about Giant Game, JoeP. Steve was right. Sorry GG needs surgery, but it’s good to know there’s a medical reason for the poor effort. The Risen Star…WOW.
Bette Davis knew “it’s going to be a bumpy night” while Elizabeth Taylor soon found out who was afraid of Virginia Woolf but the punters trying to sort out the better colts for the Kentucky Derby, 2022 will need assistance from a Ouija board to ungrapple the present dilemma they’re facing.
Even, Steve Haskin, is miffed on which way the dice will role for certain colts and he’s been a sage for many over the past five decades or so. Will they, won’t they? Where to next or not at all? It’s a puzzle.
As for me, the Race Day colts look solid to 9f but beyond that it’s a stretch. Messier was impressive but I’ve seen too many run like this in February only to be a shadow of their former selves, come May. Zandon was the 2 year old that interested me the most but that was then, this is now? Questions, questions.
Good luck to everyone guessing as to who are the leading colts. It’s fun though.
Indeed a very fluid run up to the Derby this year. So many possibilities and so many what ifs at play.
LOL, if Steve and people like you are grappling with this potential field, can you imagine what a loss I am at?
It would help tremendously if CD would just make a final decision. Everyone is sort milling around in the hallway in the virtual courthouse waiting for the jury to come in.
For now I am sticking with my short list but have my eyes and ears open to other possibilities (example Steve’s Knocking on the Door).
Most years by mid March I have a favorite to win, one I think is going to win and a sentimental pick…have a long ways to go to get there this year.
Lynda, it’s unfortunate, to put it mildly but all you can do is concentrate on the colts and determine how you feel they are progressing toward the first Saturday in May. The Risen Star Stakes should answer quite a few questions though, and from there sorting out the better runners shouldn’t be too arduous.
Good advice, David. I’ve probably said this before: for me, following these horses on the Derby trail is enjoyable, and there can be personal satisfaction in spotting a horse early on and seeing him win the Derby. But it’s dangerous to start the “selection” process before the preps have ended in early April.
Just to clarify, my three picks (favorite to win, one I think is going to win and a sentimental pick) are not set in stone. Perhaps better wording would have been that by the middle of March I have narrowed my list down to 3 or 4 top horses based on my little checklist that includes prep race results.
Yes, this is enjoyable for me and great fun; more like a hobby rather than a discipline (handicapping).
I am, after all, just a fan because horses are my passion and I have been following horse racing since I was a young child.
Clarification noted! 🙂
I seem to remember a racehorse named All About Eve.
How about the name Three Races of Eve.?
LOL. Can horses suffer from multiple personality disorder?
Not bad, Steve. No matter what though, it’s going to be a “Long Day’s Journey into Night”!!
As Derby hopefuls drop off along the trail, “The Departed.”
Baffert, Pletcher, and Asmussen star in “The Usual Suspects”
What Pletcher might be doing after a sloppy Derby: “Singin’ in the Rain”
If Ethereal Road wins the Derby, you can’t say “No Country for Old Men”
The furlong distance some trainers will be thinking about at the end of the Derby: “8 1/2”
The best Derby running style: “Stalker”
What Smile Happy says to 19 horses in the gate: “Catch Me If You Can”
Well done, but perhaps, what we are seeking the most on the Derby trail is watching a favored runner explode in one of the major preps. At last, “A Star Is Born”!!
Zandon, could be that runner.
Absolutely! On both counts.
You already saw it this past weekend with Messier. A 103 beyer in February, and better clocking than a very good animal trained by Sherrifs. If Baffert was confirmed trainer for the Derby, he would be the easy favorite.
John doesn’t rush them. Will take him any day of the week.
I did say ‘major’ preps. Not these 10-4-2-1 mini peeps.
If Zandon can remain sound. Like him.
Six in fact. Unfortunately, none were destined to became stars.
That’s show business!
I love the track “Celluloid Heroes” by The Kinks but the best version I’ve heard was in Reg Livermore’s show – “Betty Blokk Buster Follies.” Worth a listen, you can buy the album etc.
The Kink’s album “Everybody’s in Show-Biz” is worth having as well.
I was really offended that there was no picture of Holy Bull on the program for the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes nor was it mentioned in the media. And I am sure the Bull was likewise ticked off; Gulfstream Park is where he ran during the winter season. The Racing Gods and the Bull took matters into their hands.
The Holy Bull Stakes has a winner this year who honors the Bull not only in his looks and coloring, but in his talent and ability as well. I am so pleased for White Abbario’s team and owners. And Tyler Gaffalione, his jockey, and Saffie Joseph, Jr., his trainer are deserving of the honor of having a horse like White Abbario. Tyler won an Eclipse Award as a journeyman jockey at Gulfstream Park with a very seasoned and talented field of jockeys.
We will have to see how things go forward.
I really like White Abarrio. He checks a lot of boxes for me. I think he will run in the Derby and even possibly win it.
It is unfortunate that Holy Bull was not honored in the stakes race named after him.
I was really offended that there was no picture of Holy Bull on the program for the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes nor was it mentioned in the media. And I am sure the Bull was likewise ticked off; Gulfstream Park is where he ran during the winter season. The Racing Gods and the Bull took matter into their hands.
The Holy Bull Stakes has a winner this year who honors the Bull not only in his looks and coloring, but in his talent and ability as well. I am so pleased for White Abbario’s team and owners. And Tyler Gaffalione, his jockey, and Saffie Joseph, Jr., his trainer and deserving of the honor of having a horse like White Abbario. Tyler won an Eclipse Award as a journeyman jockey at Gulfstream Park with a very seasoned and talented field of jockeys.
We will have to see how things go forward.
Wonderfully reasoned analysis as per usual, Steve. I was impressed enough with Messier and White Abarrio to move them to No.’s 1 and 2 on my personal list but kept Smile Happy at #3. Thought Simplification showed real grit in finishing second in the Holy Bull. And I’m on board with Early Voting, too.
February is going to be an interesting month! I’ll be at a conference on Risen Star day, so I’ll be checking results on my phone at dinner as usual. Thanks again for all you do.
Another reason to like Early Voting: his stellar pedigree. He’s a son of Gun Runner, closely related to Speightstown. His second dam is Silken Cat, a Canadian champion at 2 who also foaled the ill-fated Irap in addition to Speightstown.
I remember Irap. Just one of those heartbreaking ends (laminitis after surgery for his fracture) to the life of a young, promising colt.
I too like Early Voting’s pedigree. His race in the Withers Stakes was impressive!
I believe Gun Runner is going to be a stamina influence in pedigrees, despite the fact that early on he didn’t appear to be a distance horse. He proved he was as a 4 year old.
Ms. B, I wouldn’t go so far as to say GR didn’t appear to be a distance horse at 3. He ran twice at 10f in the two biggest races at that distance for 3 year olds. He was third both times. So he wasn’t the best in those races, but he was good.
An open comment to EddieF
In the interest of providing more harmony and avoiding senseless disparaging exchanges on Steve’s blog, let’s bury the hatchet and move forward. I’ll make a deal with you, I’ll refrain from commenting on your posts, (regardless of the content), if you refrain from commenting on my posts, (regardless of the content). Deal?
Lost another young, promising sire, Speightster euthanized due to stall accident (fractured hind leg when he kicked his stall wall). Was standing in Canada (moved there about six weeks ago. Condolences to all the connections.
Very sad to hear of his passing.
Poor thing. Maybe he missed his old barn. Condolences to all who loved him.
It was another interesting weekend of racing. Looks like we’ll be seeing more hats thrown into the ring thru this month. So far it’s as clear as mud who will be left standing that 1st Saturday in May, but your insights are invaluable. Thanks.
Of those racing over the weekend, I was most impressed with White Abarrio. I didn’t expect him to be effective coming off of an illness and missed works. I’m happy to see Tyler with what appears to be a competitive Derby mount. And yes, I’ve deliberately left Messier off. Waiting to see what happens with Baffert and if there is a trainer switch so that he can run.
The colt I’m most looking forward to his next start is Emmanuel as I love the smooth movers.
Once the announcement is made,everyone will jump all over him and put him right at the top of their list.
He sort of looked like AP THE WAY HE DREW OFF. pretty darn good colt.
I disagree with EARLY Voting That colt plain jane stopped at the top of the stretch not to mention that field was so weak , his class should have kept him going. i don’t think he has the potential you think he does , in fact i don’t think he wants any more distance at all.
Visually, I agree with you. He looked like a very tired horse in the stretch and while it’s true the track was tiring, the final half was abysmally slow. However, his pedigree says he can run farther and it was only his 2nd start; first 2 turns so as Steve says; the race may be better than it looked.
Yall take him and i will be the first to congratulate you if he moves forward. A slow time i can live with, a flat out stop- not so much. Good luck
He crossed wire ahead of everyone else!
EV was racing his second race. He’s green. You have your opinion and I have mine. He’s going forward.
I’m with you on Early Voting, Mike!
Thanks Ms. Blacktype. Horse is talented,but inexperienced. Chad will get things sorted out. Anyone expecting a 3 yr. old horse entering his second race running perfect has unrealistic expectations.
Oh Cmon ist wasnt like he was taking on world beaters. This is the NEW YORK circuit. You are giving him all sorts of props for wining 2nd out with a 78 BEYER and basically stopping at the top of the stretch. Had there been any talent in that field , he would have been swallowed up. Just because hes a Gun Runner and just because CHAD has him doesn.t make him a Derby Winner. A lot more talented colts than him with bigger numbers on their 2nd race.
As Jack Van Berg said,” time doesn’t matter unless you’re doing it”. Not a fan of numbers. Horse will move forward and AGAIN it was only his second race. They aren’t machines.
Don’t have to be a fAN of numbers or times to visually see a horse hit the wall at the top and shut down. Best of luck, if he stays in NY hewill not be your DERBY WINNER or top 5
Too many horses who work” lights out” and run a 107,then lay an egg next time out. Seen it many times. I never said said he’s winning. NO ONE knows who’s winning 4mo. from now.
It looks like the Baffert/KHRC hearing that was scheduled today has been postponed with no reasons as to why.
Was waiting for the Messier Beyer #, thought they might have had to have a meeting, because it may have been high….103 was what they gave, only two points more than Express Train but I think Messier ran much faster…. 1:42 something, vs 1:50.99 and Mess was finishing—he also ran 2/5 faster than Eight Rings, for the half, 2/5 faster than Express….they may have whittled down Messier’s number, which they shouldn’t do, three year olds can and do improve in leaps and bounds, especially in February! More delay, in the hearings, they are “smoking out” the owners, they WANT Messier….they don’t want Bob.
If the Beyer folks need to discuss a figure, maybe they should rethink their methodology. Their revisions are why I pay little attention to BSFs. Generally speaking, a big number in a stakes route this early in the year is not a good sign for the Derby.
Less than 2 weeks until The Risen Star and the start of the 50-pointers. The Risen Star is shaping up as a must-see race. I’ll definitely be playing Fairgrounds that day. We get The Sam F Davis this Saturday and I think that Classic Causeway needs to run big to prove that he belongs on the Derby trail. I think he will run well. He’s a fast horse. But, you never know how a horse will take to that Tampa Bay track. I can forgive one of his losses when he was marooned in the #13 post forcing Jose Ortiz to hustle Classic Causeway out of the gate running way to fast to last. I thought the horse ran a really good race that day even though he finished 3rd if I remember correctly.
“too fast”
Giant Game and Courvoisier pooped out on me Saturday. I loved Messier’s performance. He may be the real deal!
My Deby dark horse Gilded Age didn’t get a mention. This is understandable as he finished a non-threatening 3rd in the Withers. But he did finish 4 1/2L behind the #16 ranked Call Me Midnight. There are positives to take way from his performance.
He made a sustained run from the back of the field on a surface I have classifies as being from Hell. He got tired in the last furlong and lost 2nd late. His late-stage exhaustion isn’t surprising as he was under a sustained drive from a long way out whilst the winner who also got tired was cruising on an uncontested lead.
He had a series of 4F works in preparation for the Withers. This was surprising. Could the Withers have been a late decision. Certainly, two 5F works would have been in order for a 9F race on a historically demanding surface. A surface that is particularly unfavorable to closers. This is the hardest this colt has ever run, and he might have entered the race a bit on the short side. The Withers might just bring him on a ton. I love where he is at the moment. He remains my money horse ala Country House.
Steve, I am not sure if you saw the 8F MSW at the Big A on 2/5/2022. The debut winner was the 15/1, Dialed In gelding Eagle In Love. He pulled away late from the TP trained Long Term who was the 2/5 favorite.
Dialed In is proving to be a decent sire that is somewhat underrated Gunnevera has taught us that the son of Mineshaft can sire quality runners.
Eagle In Love’s Panamanian bred dam has an excellent race record (18 starts: 11 – 4 – 2) Her record reflect 5 graded stakes wins with one being a G1. She also placed in a G1
A winning debut on a sloppy/sealed surface against a TP trained 2/5 Curlin colt suggest above average ability. The Dialed In gelding is a physically imposing fellow. His big shoulders are sloped at the right angle, and he has a powerful hind end to propel him. I also like small hear that sits atop his stayer neck. From a gait perspective he overreaches nicely and this signal he is dead router. Unlike Gunnevera, he has tactical speed. He switched leads late in final furlong and has a somewhat of high keen action which isn’t as obvious when he switches.
He has started late but the professionalism he displayed on debut suggests he smart and could be a player in the Gotham & Wood. This is assuming his connections have the Derby fever,
I’m glad you mentioned Gilded Age. I meant to include him and totally forgot. He’s there now, along with Un Ojo.
I like Gilded Age.
It’s about all you can say about Baffert’s horses right now….a hearing today is scheduled with the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission regarding last year’s Derby and anything that happens after that is anyone’s guess but what a weekend Baffert had….the filly Adare Manor winning by a dozen lengths earlier on the card before Messier’s statement (103 Beyer) in the Robert Lewis….the you had Mereith beating Ce Ce on Saturday then getting an invitation for Country Grammer for the Saudi Cup in a couple of weeks.
Speaking of Baffert’ horses….Jay Privman of the DRF had an interesting article on Corniche….saying basically “they are not rushing the horse….has not ruled out the Kentucky Derby nor has ruled in the Kentucky Derby but looking forward to a major three year old campaign”.
Both the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the BCJ have returned with performances well below expectation. This doesn’t flatter Corniche.
Messier – The 18/1 runner was making its 4th start on dirt. It was beaten in its previous 3 by a combined 29 3/4L. But has won 2 out of 4 on turf with 2nd & 3rd place finishes in the other two. Whilst his 15L defeat to Messier is the widest margin in his dirt career. He has been beaten on dirt by 13 1/4L & 11L in 2 of his dirt races. Cabo Spirit has been beaten like a rented mule by others. He is much more competitive on turf
Be mindful of big Beyers recorded against modest opposition.
Thanks Steve for another week of “Words of Wisdom”. Great insights! ALSO thanks for mentioning my dark horse Barber Road. Can I bother you for his Thoro-Graph numbers?
He’s on a good pattern — 24 1/4…13 1/2….9 1/4…..6 1/2…..7 1/4….4 1/2
It looks like Bob knows what’s coming, and wanted to show his big filly and colt off yesterday….
Corniche is his “big” horse, but Messier reminds me of his old timer Game of Dude. Messier is eligible as well for the Canadian triple crown later in the summer.
CORNICHE CANT GET READY FOR THE DERBY He hasnt even worked
Didn’t Lukas Arrogate filly win impressively as well?
I know that a 2 year old filly by Arrogate out of a MDO mare won Feb 06 at Gulfstream. Trained by Chad Brown and owned by Juddmonte. Pretty filly, dark brown like MDO.
Secret Oath is the filly that Lukas is training. Out of a Quiet American sired broodmare. She won the Martha Washington (one mile). She shows promise I think, very aggressive to get on the lead, won impressively.
That’s how I read the performances – this is what I have, had.