Derby Rankings: Week 4
Although we had some movement this week, we now come to the make or break weekend when many of ranked horses compete in the Risen Star Stakes and Southwest Stakes, several of which were top 2-year-olds making their long-awaited debuts. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 4, Feb. 8
By Steve Haskin
1. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
If you’re questioning the quality of his Holy Bull performance from a speed aspect, you could not ask for a better progression Thoro-Graph, going from 9 3/4 to a 7 3/4 to a 4 1/2 to a 1. The Holy Bull figure equals The Great One’s last start as the fastest figure this year by a 3-year-old. But unlike The Great One’s dramatic leap from a 10 to a 1, his pattern has been such a steady improvement race to race there is no concern about a “bounce” and he is already fast enough to win the Derby. As is often the case, there are some who feel he is a deserving No. 1 and others who feel his not there yet, defeating a less than stellar field in the Holy Bull Stakes. But you should take note that runner-up Tarantino showed marked improvement switching to dirt going from a 10 to a very respectable 4 1/2, the same figure Caddo River ran winning the Smarty Jones by 10 lengths. No one really knows how good these horses are yet, so you go by what you see, pointing out strengths and possible weaknesses. In the case of Greatest Honour, I see no weaknesses or flaws, whether it is his progression speed-wise, his mechanics, consistency, versatility, professionalism, or his pedigree. And the horses he’s been running with, whether in sprints or two-turn races, have come back and run huge. So he checks off all the boxes.
2. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
You normally don’t see the first, third, and fourth-place finishers of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile making their 3-year-old debut in the Southwest Stakes, to be run next Monday, February 15. What makes BC Juvenile Part 2 even more unusual is that Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior will be shipping over from Fair Grounds, even though the Risen Star is being run that same weekend and at a new 1 1/8-mile distance that would favor Essential Quality. But Cox has LeComte third-place finisher Manadaloun staying home for that race, as is Jackie’s Warrior’s trainer Steve Asmussen with LeComte winner Midnight Bourbon. And that also gives Cox the luxury of waiting for the Rebel Stakes with Smarty Jones winner Caddo River. To add to all the strategizing, Essential Quality going to Oakawn means that Godolphin doesn’t have to worry about him clashing with their other Derby prospect, LeComte runner-up Proxy, trained by Mike Stidham, in the Risen Star. So all the pieces of the puzzle seem to fit. Essential Quality had a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00 3/5 and if he runs big in the Southwest he could very well return to the No. 1 spot.
3. Senor Buscador (Todd Fincher, Mineshaft – Rose’s Desert, by Desert God)
It is difficult keeping a horse as high as No. 3 when you have to wait this long between races and he hasn’t been doing much in the mornings, at least on the work tab. And that work tab is at Sam Houston Park, not exactly a proven base to launch a Kentucky Derby campaign. So we’re into February and still basing everything on two races at Remington Park. We will finally find out where he fits on the Derby scene in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes when he takes on far classier horses who have already proven their ability in stakes over this track. But he does get the added 1 1/8-mile distance, which he should appreciate. And I can’t get a good gauge on him in the mornings because he has been on an unusual work pattern. Since his explosive victory in the Springboard Mile he worked three furlongs 13 days later, then worked three furlongs again 10 days later, then three furlongs again 11 days later, and he finally went half 12 days later. Fincher has also been spacing his works, so we’ll see how that works when he faces proven stakes horses. And we’ll also have to see how he runs coming off Lasix. Fincher showed with Runaway Ghost that he knows how to develop a talented young horse so we’re not going to speculate what we’re about to see and instead focus on the two devastating moves we saw last year. He certainly doesn’t need to win the Risen Star, but with only two preps he is going to have to start earning points.
4. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, Laoban – Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
This horse has had enough of people thinking of him as a plodder with no speed. He tried to tell everyone they were dead wrong in his bullet work on January 22, but just in case they weren’t paying attention, he decided to give them one final preview of what just may be the new look Keepmeinmind. He worked five furlongs in a bullet :59 flat, going his opening quarter in a snappy :22 4/5 and then galloped out six furlongs in a Baffert-like 1:11 4/5, seven furlongs in 1:25 2/5, and pulled up a mile in 1:40 2/5 in what should not only hone whatever speed he has, but give him a great foundation for the arduous road ahead. This is the third straight sharp stamina-building work, and now Diodoro will have to decide whether to stay home for the Southwest or go for the longer Risen Star. As of now he is undecided, but has entered him in the Risen Star where he drew post 12 in the 13-horse field. Wherever he goes, I am sure Diodoro is looking down the road and just wants to see that familiar big stretch kick. He will give him an easy half-mile breeze on May and then a couple of stiff gallops during the week. Keepmeinmind is also going to have to erase the poor speed figures of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and the dismal performance of runner-up Smiley Sobotka in the Sam F. Davis Stakes.
5. Risk Taking (Chad Brown, Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
Could this be the year we finally see a horse take the New York path to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle? This high ranking may seem like a knee-jerk reaction, but he looks to be a throwback horse, of which I am particularly partial. Blinkers seem to have really gotten this colt’s mind on racing, as he improved dramatically after two dismal efforts to score a workmanlike victory going a mile and eighth over a dead Aqueduct track in December. The big question going into the Withers was how much progress he had made in the past two months. This was a much more professional effort, as he ran straight in the stretch and never flinched from the whip. As he showed in his maiden win, he runs hard and keeps coming at you, and he doesn’t miss a beat when a horse (Capo Kane) drifts out into his path. There is a term that isn’t used anymore, but it can be said he is all hickory – a tough, sound, hard-running horse who has no quit in him. With back-to-back nine-furlong wins he has a strong foundation and his pedigree says he can’t wait to stretch out even farther. This horse is the embodiment of Phipps breeding and it doesn’t get much classier than that. Ogden Phipps bred his third, fourth and fifth dams, and from these families have come Buckpasser, Personal Ensign, Numbered Account, Seeking the Gold, Reviewer, Private Account, Dance Number, Rhythm, and Majestic Light. In the bottom half of his female family alone through sires, dams and siblings are 12 horses bred by Phipps. He is inbred to Buckpasser, and to deviate from the Phipps family, he is also inbred to Damascus. And Buckpasser and Damascus were two horses who epitomized the term “all hickory.”
6. Caddo River (Brad Cox, Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats)
Returned to the work tab with an easy half in :50 3/5, going off a slow quarter in :26 and coming home in :24 3/5 before galloping out a strong five furlongs in 1:03. That’s just what you’re looking for – to teach him to relax early and come home fast. We know he can beat Greatest Honour sprinting and he has since gone on to bigger and better things with a pair of electrifying victories stretching out. Now it’s basically a question of how far he can carry his speed. Let’s remember, however, that his Thoro-Graph figures in his last two starts don’t quite reflect the margins of victory, so he does still have room for improvement and is far from speed crazy. Having decimated his rivals twice now, his trainer has the luxury of shipping Fair Grounds-based stablemate Essential Quality to Oaklawn for the Southwest Stakes and waiting until the Rebel Stakes on March 13 for this colt. Trying to get a good grasp of his pedigree is not easy, because his female family is fairly nondescript. I mentioned last week about his sire Hard Spun’s ability to carry his high cruising speed a classic distance of ground. That can be attributed to his dam being by Marlboro Cup winner Turkoman, out of a half-sister to Preakness and Belmont winner Little Current, both being stone closers.
7. Life is Good (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
How many times have you been awestruck by a Baffert horse’s workout? You no doubt have lost count That is why you have to be impressed to see a fast colt like Life is Good working relatively slow half-miles, his most recent being a :48 4/5 breeze. Baffert knows how fast this horse is and he is content right now to just work him by himself and not ask for any speed. From strictly a visual standpoint these last two breezes were extremely impressive, as he was relaxed the whole way, but still striding out beautifully, his ears pricked and totally responsive to the rider. In short, he can catch the eye even breezing a slow half-mile. Now all he has to do is show that he can harness his speed enough to get him a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. The only reason he is not ranked higher is I am waiting to see a little more versatility and for him to get a tough test and look a horse in the eye. He has all the physical tools and is a pleasure watch run, but he has had two easy strolls in the park and it almost cost him last time. He also will have only four career starts before the Derby, so he needs toughening.
8. Roman Centurian (Simon Callaghan, Empire Maker – Spare Change, by Bernardini)
If I had to put a future book bet on a horse at a big price he would be the one right now. I explained last week that he was ranked higher than Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes because of the ground loss, having to run 30 feet farther than the winner. After seeing the Thoro-Graph figures from that race I like him even more. Even though the figures for all three horses were extremely close, Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie ran the same figures they did in their previous start, while he jumped from a 6 to 3 1/4. Also he was coming off a maiden score and they were coming off huge efforts in graded stakes company. So as of now I like the trajectory he is on and I don’t believe we have seen anything even close to his best. With his pedigree and his continued improvement I can see him peaking on Derby Day.
9. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
Unlike Life is Good, we know what he can do when he gets in a dogfight. He looked like a beaten horse in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but he showed his grit and refused to let two talented horses get by him. We also saw his determination when he didn’t get discouraged trying futilely to chase down Life is Good, who was on cruise control and on his way to coasting to an easy victory. But he kept running hard and when Life is Good practically fell asleep in the final furlong he was in position to put quite a scare in him. So we have seen what he do running from off the pace and on the lead. He is not getting a lot of respect, in part to the number of hyped horses in the Baffert barn and his obscure pedigree, which happens to be inundated with class and stamina influences. I am sure he also will be a huge overlay in this week’s Future Wager and looks to be a very enticing bet. I also believe as those above him sort themselves out he will move up several spots in the coming weeks.
10. Proxy (Michael Stidham, Tapit – Panty Raid, by Include)
Although I still want to see him take a left-handed whip and not react so strongly or show what he can do without the whip, I did get several things cleared up that makes me look at him in a more positive light. Stidham explained that in the LeComte his new rider Mitchell Murrill hit him left-handed to put the pressure on Mandaloun, who he felt was his main danger on his outside. It was a case of race-riding, and while he did force Mandaloun out as intended and was able to outgame him to the wire, he drifted well clear of the pace-setting Midnight Bourbon, who was able to eke out a narrow victory on the rail after setting a slow pace. That explains why Proxy never passed Midnight Bourbon; he was too occupied with Mandaloun and too far away from the winner to look him in the eye. Stidham believes he is learning with every race and has really matured physically from a tall leggy horse to a wider more muscular individual. He was extremely happy with his latest work, in which he went a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 in company with Jim Dandy winner and Jockey Club Gold Cup runner-up Mystic Guide and gave the older horse “all he can handle.” What convinced me we are going to see a more polished horse in the Risen Star, and no disrespect to Murrill, is that he now gets John Velazquez, and that alone merits his rise in the rankings. I still believe Johnny V gets more out of a horse than any rider in the country.
11. Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker)
Like Proxy, he bounced out of his hard race in the LeComte with a sharp five-furlong breeze in a bullet :59 4/5 over a track listed as good. It was the fastest of 34 works at the distance, and now comes his big test stretching out to a mile and eighth in the Risen Star Stakes. But with his running style he will have a lot to overcome drawing the 11 post. Cox could have sent him to Oaklawn to run at the shorter distance of the Southwest Stakes next weekend, but decided to send Essential Quality there and run this colt at the longer distance. With Mandaloun having already run in a 1 1/16-mile stakes this year, this will give him even more bottom running in back-to-back nine furlong races, which he will need with the six-week gap between the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby. It is just a question how much ground he will lose breaking that far outside. You never know how far an Into Mischief will run, but he looks to be a grinder who just keeps coming and can sustain his run a long way. And he has plenty of stamina in his female family, as well as being inbred to class/stamina influence His Majesty. What I liked most about his race in the LeComte was that he was making his first start around two turns, while Midnight Bourbon and Proxy were already proven two-turn horses, and he had a wide trip the whole way, earning a faster Thoro-Graph number. Good luck not having an even wider trip this time.
12. The Great One (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Little Ms. Protocol, by El Corredor)
Like with several other horses on the Derby trail this year, we are going to have to guess what will happen when he has to race without Lasix. In his case, he hadn’t run with Lasix until his last start, and even though he had run big in the Los Alamitos Futurity as a maiden he had never demonstrated the brilliance and explosiveness he showed in his devastating 14-length romp last time out. And we can’t remember such a dramatic leap in speed figures, going from a 10 to 1 on Thoro-Graph. Was it the Lasix or the addition of blinkers several races back or moving way down in class from a Grade 2 to a maiden race? Those questions won’t be answered until he runs again in the San Felipe Stakes. Because there is so much speculation regarding this colt I am going by what I saw in his last two races and will assume he is a horse who has finally matured physically and mentally and is just now figuring it all out. We’ll just have to wait until March 6 to find out what kind of horse we are dealing with.
13. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
He turned in a solid five-furlong work in 1:01 as he prepares for a rematch with Proxy and Mandaloun in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes. The question is, how will he be ridden this time? In the LeComte he took advantage of a paceless race and was able to be in complete control all the way. I believe his best race is off the pace, but we still don’t know what kind of closing punch he has. It is difficult separating the first three finishers of the LeComte and I think strategy will play an important role again with the threat this time coming from the rear of the pack in the form of Senor Buscador. Midnight Bourbon has the look of a distance horse and the pedigree to match, so the extra distance of the Risen Star should only help him. We’ll just have to wait and see if there is any speed in the race this time.
14. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
The main reason he is this far below Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian is that I know they will relish a mile and a quarter and I’m still not quite sure about him. Not that his pedigree suggests he’s a sprinter or miler, it’s just that it is somewhere in the middle of the road, possibly maxing out at a mile and an eighth. But that is pure speculation, especially in this day and age when horses with all kinds pedigrees are able to carry their speed. He did take all the worst of it the Robert. B. Lewis being the meat in the sandwich in a three-horse stretch battle and getting bounced around from both sides. As mentioned earlier he did pair up his Thoro-Graph figure from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, so we still don’t know if he has improved from 2 to 3, and he will need to move forward off this race
15. Jackie’s Warrior (Steve Asmussen, Maclean’s Music – Unicorn Girl, by A.P. Five Hundred)
Well, we know Jackie the Jet is ready to take off judging from his five-furlong work in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 18 works at the distance. He will make his debut in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes and should have a distance and tactical advantage over the debuting Essential Quality. The big questions with him are whether he can win coming from off the pace and around two turns and how far he can carry his speed. I actually felt he ran a pretty strong race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile getting outrun by two horses, one of them a 41-1 rabbit for Keepmeinmind, and being shuffled back to fourth. He did look strong taking the lead nearing the top of the stretch and never quit, getting beat only three lengths despite chasing brutal fractions of :22 2/5 and :45 1/5. By comparison, the Juvenile Fillies went in :23 1/5 and :47. Despite all the speed in his pedigree he doesn’t have the physical appearance of a sprinter and has a very classy look about him. The word from the barn is that he is extremely intelligent and not speed crazy at all, so we’ll see how he runs in the Southwest before deciding whether he looks like a Derby horse.
16. Overtook (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy)
If you’re going to rank Risk Taking high then you surely have to at least acknowledge this colt’s improvement since the removal of blinkers and becoming a rare Pletcher deep closer. A $1 million yearling purchase, he has the looks and the pedigree, with his dam earning over $950,000. But in the Withers he was under a strong ride early, leaving the half-mile pole, and couldn’t close any ground on Risk Taking, who still hadn’t been asked for his run. He didn’t show much acceleration at any point and just kept grinding away, eventually passing tired horses, although he did seem to be leveling off nicely at the end. I just don’t know if he’s fast enough at this point to be considered a major player, unless he can demonstrate a quicker turn of foot.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
I am holding off a week or two before ranking CONCERT TOUR, mainly because he still hasn’t been two turns and he showed he is still a little green. And I want to see the results of next weekend’s big stakes. He was running beautifully after turning for home in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes, but then starting deviating off his course, drifting to the outside, possibly because he was under pressure for the first time trying to get by his speedy stablemate FREEDOM FIGHTER. If Concert Tour goes on to be a leading Derby contender, which I believe he will, he owes a good part of it to Freedom Fighter, who taught him some valuable lessons he probably would not have learned had he not been confronted with a horse this fast and game. But what you have to like about him the most is that, with the exception of his maternal great-grandsire Mt. Livemore, there is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he wants anything to do with sprinting. I like that Baffert is taking a gradual approach and not rushing him into two-turn stakes, and I believe we will see a much improved horse when he goes two turns in his next start.
For years, we’ve been talking about the quirkiness of the Tampa Bay surface. It is much faster than it used to be, but we still get head-scratching performances, such as those of KNOWN AGENDA and SMILEY SOBOTKA in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. I have no idea why Known Agenda, who had demonstrated good tactical speed, was running last and just couldn’t get going until it was way too late. He did get bumped around a little after the start, but it should not have affected him to that extent. He was able to make up a lot of ground in the stretch with horses tiring in front of him. I still feel he’s a very good horse, but we need to see what he does on a different surface and back to his usual running style. Smiley Sobotka was up there with pace, but quickly retreated to beaten nearly 23 lengths.
Right now I can’t get too excited about this race. Give the winner CANDY MAN ROCKET credit for stretching out from a 9 1/4-length romp going six furlongs to a mile and 40 yards and defeating his stablemate, Pasco Stakes winner NOVA RAGS, but these horses were tiring late and crawled home, so we’ll have to wait to see if they can improve off it. Third-place finisher HIDDEN STASH made up four lengths in the final furlong and just keeps improving, but he saved ground the whole way, was closing on tired horses, and never switched leads. We’ll see if he can take another step forward next out.
CAPO KANE, making his two-turn debut following a 6 1/2-length romp in the one-mile Jerome Stakes, looked like a winner turning for home after controlling the pace, but couldn’t keep a straight course and tired to finish third. He will now cut back to a mile in the March 6 Gotham Stakes.
Well, we saw the monster performance we expected from BEZOS, except it wasn’t from Bezos. It was the horse who flew by him at the head of the stretch and just spread-eagled his field from there with his ears pricked and jockey Joel Rosario looking back several times. That was DREAM SHAKE, who could be any kind for trainer Peter Eurton. As for Bezos, who finished up the track, the only bigger losers were all the people who bet on an unraced horse in the Derby future book and Future Wager. More on Dream Shake next week when we find out his plans.
Keep an eye on Tampa maiden winner UNBRIDLED HONOR, who showed a lot of professionalism after being trapped most of the way and staring at a wall of horses in front him after turning for home. But he waited patiently and when a hole finally opened on the inside he quickly altered course and shot through to win by a half-length for Pletcher. By Honor Code, his dam is a half-sister to two Grade 1 winners – Haskell winner Roman Ruler and Cigar Mile winner El Corredor.
Two very interesting first-out maiden winners entered in the Risen Star are both trained by Tom Amoss and both sons of Union Rags. CARILLO was extremely impressive breaking his maiden at a mile at Aqueduct for Chad Brown in his career debut. He then was sold for $875,000 at the Estate of Paul Pompa dispersal and turned over to Amoss. He worked five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5 and could surprise a lot of people if he is as good as he looked in his debut and runs to his pedigree. The other maiden winner is DEFEATER, who drew off impressively going six furlongs at Fair Grounds, despite a rough trip.
Several horses are right on the outer edge of the Rankings. Because of this past weekend’s results and the big upcoming stakes, TARANTINO had to be dropped off the Sweet Sixteen, but I’m pretty sure it will only be temporary.
The late-closing ROMBAUER was scratched from the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and instead worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 and most recently another five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 38 works at the distance. Trainer Mike McCarthy elected to wait for the mile and an eighth El Camino Real Derby run over the Tapeta surface. We have no idea how he will handle it, but this horse is much more suited to nine furlongs than the 1 1/16 miles of the Lewis with a small field.
Another borderline horse is FIRE AT WILL, who will return to the dirt in the February 27 Fountain of Youth Stakes. A big race there and he surely has to be regarded as a leading contender. He turned in another solid work, going five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Still another on the outside waiting to get in is the impressive Nyquist Stakes winner HIGHLY MOTIVATED, who breezed a half in :49 1/5 at Payson Park, as he prepares for his debut in the Gotham Stakes.
American Pharoah Stakes winner GET HER NUMBER is up to a half-mile in his works, turning in a :50 2/5 breeze at San Luis Rey Downs.
Please Note: Oaklawn has canceled their weekend card and the Southwest Stakes will now be run Saturday Feb. 20. The next Rankings will be on Monday as usual.
Steve,
Always love to read your take on each horse. Already picked a favorite and he is moving up on your list!!!!
I dont really care about lists…A list should be what they have none…..different than picks…..
I would put EQ, Mand, keepmeinmind , caddo top 4……..off of what they have done….everyone else in a pile of not bad……it is way early….
I still like keepmeinmind as my top
What is up with everyone knocking greatest honour?…..what is going around, is the time of the race, was 2 seconds off……people actually think he ran in the 70s…..people drive me crazy……..i dont think he is fast enough yet, but 70s?…..this horse looks good……
Senor ran bad……period……..again i have to hear excuses…..”he needs lasix”……track never helps closers…..people drive me nuts……
What will Steve do tomorrow with his Sweet Sixteen? I’ll make a few guesses. He will not forgive Senor Buscador’s 7.5-length loss; he’ll clench his teeth and boot the deep deep closer completely off the mountain. Who will replace el senor? The narrow winner of the AW El Camino Real, Rombauer, who earned a whopping BSF of 84? Concert Tour, who still hasn’t gone two turns? I’m guessing Concert Tour at #16 because there’s no other colt ready to join the proven ones.
But then there’s the question of what to do with Midnight Bourbon, who may have finally shown that he can win only when he gets an easy lead. Three stakes races where he doesn’t get the lead, he loses ground in the stretch. Does Midnight Bourbon go from #13 to #101 Wild Turkey? If Steve tosses the bourbon bottle, Rombauer gets in based on potential–he still hasn’t raced on natural dirt. How far will Mandaloun climb? Will he only pass Proxy, or will he find himself among the elite in the top 6? I say the latter. After all, he just won the first 84-point Derby prep at 9f with a BSF of 98.
Stay tuned…
Since I am watching a conspiracy theory documental right now I would intrigue Senor Buscador just needs Lasix to demolish rivals in the stretch … not sure if he will be dropped out of the 16 though … but it depends on Steve’s assessment of his performance in the Risen Star.
Mandaloun climbs above Proxy unless Steve deems Proxy was better horse given all his behavior hitches. Midnigth Bourbon should go down in favor of Rombauer.
Impressive new faces like Defeater or any other that caught his fancy this week with Run Classic (Calhoun) and Big Lake (Asmussen) should at least enter the KOTD…
*documentary
Anyone who uses the word “forefeel” (in a previous post) gets a pass on a typo — and uses it appropriately, too!
Just trying to impress Davids …. LOL
The weather at Hot Springs doesn’t look promising for this Saturday.
After watching the Risen Star Stakes a few times I’m still miffed on why Proxy fell asleep during the race. A valiant effort by John Velasquez in getting Proxy going again, another furlong and it’s bye bye Mandaloun.
Overall view, Greatest Honour looks even better, with high anticipation on Essential Quality’s return.
Did you notice how agitated was Proxy going to the starting gate?… Johny V. was also busy getting him focused pre race…
I forefeeled Proxy would not be at his best in the Risen Star
Yes, Nelson, I feared the same. Did you see Proxy wallop the diminutive Senor Buscador prior to loading. The’ll have to calm his disposition.
Did not see that precise incident but could spot how the pony and the jockey were trying to curb whatever he had in mind
Pure intimidation – “I” am the man!!
Well … he did not succeed in scaring Mandaloun !
He was chasing him down with every bound, at 10f “you’re mine” ha ha Squish!!
Really looking forward to your analysis tomorrow Steve, especially any insights you glean from Thorograph or Ragazin numbers. I know you don’t like Beyer figures, but I find it interesting that Maxfield, Mandaloun, and Captivating Moon — three very different types of horses — ended up with Beyers within one point of each other. If nothing else, that makes it clear to me that the numbers don’t mean one horse is better than another, although I find them useful when comparing relatively untested 3YO colts.
I’m curious whether the figs you follow tell a different story.
Looks like Juddmonte and Godolfin have Kentucky Derby players this year….Mandaloun can make his own way now that he has points, and I just love Prevalence, what a looker, and what a head on that horse! If you haven’t seen him take a look!
Through years of great disappointment, I’ve come to the conclusion that you never get too hot on a Kentucky Derby prospect until they have at least won a Graded Stakes race. Good luck, though.
Please don’t quote Justify back at me, that colt should never have been able to run in the Triple Crown races in the first place. Thankfully, the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act will clean up the sport in the US.
Good luck on what? I’m just talking horses, is all…
oh….right, lets make more laws…here’s one more…only DAVIDS can mention Justify!
Steve Haskins is a real treasure this time of year, but the insights and comments that you posters make are really interesting. Regardless if your right or wrong in your opiniond, it contributes to making this one of my favorite sites. Keep it up!
Mandaloun didn’t let me down. With his speed, he got good early positioning going into the first turn, and rated off the pace setters during the backstretch run. Turning for home he showed his class, to finish in a good time of 1:50.39.
Hopefully, Brad Cox will point Mandaloun to the Rebel Stakes for his next outing. Could we see back to back colts, sired by Into Mischief, winning the Derby? Not likely, but possible.
Dreams of February often turn into nightmares come May or April fools even earlier but that’s the Derby Trail.
Your ability to state the obvious is amazing Davids. 🙂
Mandaloun’s final furlong in 13s. Proxy finished in 12 3/5s.
Well, that confirms the visual image. Further distance and Proxy runs by Mandaloun.
It will be a real shocker if O Besos doesn’t win.
I’m shocked. But he was the only longshot in the top 4, and he did whup Senor Buscador. Lost my wps bet but happy with his run. I still really like him. He needed this race. Now we know he can route.
Point of note:
A Risen Star Stakes winner has never won the Kentucky Derby.
Word at the track is that the trainers of the 10 TC-nominated runners have instructed their riders to allow Sermononthemount to win the race. Sermononthemount is the only runner not nominated to the TC. 😉
I think that Senor Buscador could be the favorite. I see Mandaloun as the likeliest winner. I’m making a small bet to win on Santa Cruiser (15-1 ML) and will box him with Mandaloun.
Speed seems to be holding … 6 on top with 2-3-5-10-11 for a $20 Trifecta
and wish me luck !
If I lose, I hope you win! LOL
Eddie Good one on Mandaloun… the blinkers definitely work… With 52 points the son of Into Mischief is in the Derby already.
If a son of Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greeley mare could win the Derby what could we expect from the one from an Empire Maker mare!
Proxy will be much better when he learns how to run straight in the homestretch.
Let’s see how the Louisiana Derby turns up.
Thanks, Nelson. Can hardly believe I bet two colts in the last FW at big odds and both of them have won next out (Mandy and GH). Proxy looked much better, but this time he seemed to drift out a bit with the RIGHThanded whip. 😮 Midnight Bourbon may be a colt that needs the lead. El senor is too much of a deep closer to win the big ones, I think. Tough to make a big rally against a moderate or slow pace.
Nelson, perhaps a better sentence would have been:
“If a son of Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greeley mare could win the Derby [in September] what could we expect from the one from an Empire Maker mare [when the Derby is in May again?]
Suggestion, go seek out the Oracle of Delphi that answer may have more credibility than most.
That is a good point. Being Authentic a May 5 foal September Derby was a blessing for him.
Mandaloun was foaled March 18 so he is growing into a nice athlete towards the Roses.
If Nostradamus could not see the years of the masks what can you expect from the Oracle.
“I think my wife is a weather forecaster…
A guy called up asking if the coast was clear.”
That made me giggle, I bet you’ve never told your wife that joke.
32 years of marriage requires all jokes to be told in Third Person
Yes, and since ‘Adam was a boy,’ you’ve been told how much the Fair Grounds resembles Churchill Downs in track formation. Which means…
Your notes on unraced and lightly raced prospects have had me constantly referring to the PPs that are available for Triple Crown nominees. The number of well-bred colts in top barns can make your head spin.
Of the five O’Neill/Asmussen horses in KDFW3, Jackie’s Warrior is the surprise live one at 21-1 — despite his last race being over 3 months ago when pooping out in the BCJ. I would understand why Risen Star runners aren’t bet heavily before the race has been run. But Mandaloun is at a crazy 69-1. I thought I got a great price on him in FW2 at 42-1. However, Midnight Bourbon is currently 27-1, while Senor Buscador is 20-1. The value plays may be Risk Taking (34-1) and Roman Centurian (46-1).
Comment above was meant to be in reply to Nelson.
Thanks for the reply. Yes … there are a lot of well bred 3-year-old horses among the nominees. When you have high hopes with your high-priced horses you better nominate them for the Triple Crown.
We will have the opportunity to sort many of them out among the 49 sophomores running this afternoon at Fair Grounds.
Regarding pool 3, Mandaloun ended up at 51-1 and Risk Taking at 28-1. You are right about Roman Centurian (45-1).
I thought other value plays were on Hot Rod Charlie (41-1) and Medina Spirit (25-1).
Fire At Will going from 50-1 ML to 25-1 is interesting … someone knows something.
We should revisit the Turf-to-Dirt angle for the Derby…
*Edit: not ended up but current odds… the pool is still open
Yep. Betting closes at 6 pm EST tomorrow. Could be plenty of movement before then.
Those are my two overlays
Roman is holding at 46-1 this morning; RT at 28-1. I just don’t get Prevalence as the fourth choice at 12-1.
Am headed to Los Al this am, putting up on Roman Centurian….only horse I bet so far is Wupe the Slate ar 86-1, $5 gone…..Roman has a big look at 45-1 for me, maybe double my play to $10.
The Great One at 35-1 is getting close for me, I want 40-1….
If The Great One wins the Santa Anita Derby you’ll be cursing yourself. Don’t be be so parsimonious.
I love Prevalence….but at 12-1 I wouldn’t bet him with YOUR money…..any horse that has only faced maidens and it’s mid February….should be 50-1, in my opinion.
A fool and his money are soon parted…
Only Fools and Horses
Shakesphere was right, I’m living proof…
Continuing with my recount of the Big Trainers and their Derby Hopefuls let’s talk about the assets of Doug O’Neil and Steve Asmussen. Both boast two horses each in Steve’s ranking.
Doug O’Neil, a two-time Derby winner, got two early prospects in Hot Rod Charlie, The Great One and the tailing Wipe the Slate. The first two are fully characterized by Steve as his current numbers 12 and 14 respectively. Wipe the Slate tired badly in the Robert Lewis Stakes and hasn’t worked out since… seems to me like he is not a factor anymore.
I don’t see O’Neil pitting his top prospects against one another, but I am not sure who will remain in California and who will be shipped. Nevertheless, The Great One and Hot Rod Charlie can get enough Derby qualifying points.
Steve Asmussen best cards are Jackie’s Warrior and Midnight Bourbon but waiting on deck are interesting runners like Cowan, Saffa’s Day, Scarred, Swiftsure and, the son of Street Sense a G3 winner as a 2-year-old, Cazadero. Super Stock is one with good Stakes experience who just started training for a come back. Worth mentioning also are productive maidens named Tiwanaku and Alejandro, a Curlin colt and grandson of Rachel Alexandra.
The trainer of Curlin and Gun Runner is loaded with nice horses this year. Again, Steve has commented abundantly about Midnight Bourbon and Jackie’s Warrior merits. The only thing I can add is my own bias.
On Midnight Bourbon I see as an encouraging sign that a son of Tiznow and maternal grandson of Malibu Moon, who sired a Derby winner, owns that kind of speed. How far his speed takes him remains to be seen…
But my strongest bias is around the Champagne being a factory of Champions… one of my very first memories as a fan was reading about Riva Ridge, Secretariat, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew and Spectacular Bid winning the Champagne and going from there to confirming their greatness.
Tiz the Law brought a flashback of the Golden Era and shook the perception that the Champagne is won by just solid milers or horses with explosive speed.
My preconception about the Champagne Stakes made me imagine that Asmussen winning it for the first time with Jackie’s Warrior was a presage he will win the Derby for the first time as well.
Anyways, it takes only one race to adjust from preconceptions to pure reality.
My comment above was meant to be a reply to your post.
Steve Haskin-
At Fair Grounds February 6, I like #6 Senor Buscador in the Risen Star Stakes because of his off track pedigree potential.
At FG Race 8, I will bet #4 Defeater, assuming he scratches out of the Risen Star, also for the same reason, for his off track
pedigree potential.
Coincidentally, Defeater’s older five-year-old full brother, #5 Dinar, is running in Race 10, the Mineshaft Stakes. Will be
interesting to see if full siblings handle the anticipated wet track conditions.
Thanks for week #4 of the Derby Rankings. Always enjoy reading your KD horse racing comments.
Correction to above comment: February 13, not February 6.
Thank you. Defeater definitely is out of the Risen Star and going in the allowance race.
First and foremost thank you Mr. Haskin for continuing your quest. Much obliged. Hopefully, some people can figure it out and just enjoy it. Those are just COLDFACTs, it’s -20 below where I live. That is the type of person who shows you the winning $20 ticket on Derby Day they have, but put $20 on every horse and didn’t show the other 19 losers in his pocket.
Thanks very much. Hopefully these columns can keep you warm when snuggle up next to the fire to read it with a cup of hot cocoa
Bob “Derby King” Baffert is earnestly attempting to become the winningest Derby winner armed by a good brand of horses this year as per usual.
Life is Good, Medina Spirit and Concert Tour are a formidable assembly. Life is Good is the one with the greatest raw talent possessing a devastating speed. Medina Spirit is the only one “battle-proof” and Concert Tour is destined to excel at the Classic distance.
In the second tier are Freedom Fighter who looks like a mighty sprinter and Spielberg who is always animating but reminds me of a “win-phobic” horse named Solomonic. The family horse Du Jour is primed to break his maiden next out and looks to be another good one.
Baffert also has six horses getting ready to debut who might not be Derby bound but are still worth to watch.
Triple Tap (Tapit- Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman) half to American Pharoah looks good at Santa Anita. His last two workouts read 4 F in 46.80 and 5F in 1:01.00. The last breeze was in company of another new horse named Wildcat Nation (Runhappy-Tarty to the Party by Speightstown) who was even better in previous drills.
Training at Los Alamitos is Boby Bo (Speightster- Auspicious by Indian Charlie) a Million Dollar horse who must be an Adonis given that his sire is not precisely elite after only one crop.
Following Sea (Runhappy-Quick Flip by Speightstown), Money Mike (Into Mischief-Ahh Chocolate by Candy Ride(ARG)) and Myopic (Candy Ride (ARG)-Spokeswoman by Unbridled’s Song) also look to have talent. Notably the last two being more impressive.
Any of these horses could be “the talk of the town” after debuting … a familiar reaction with Baffert youngsters but they are not Derby horses especially due to their very tardy starts. When a trainer has this kind of quality in reserve it is expected his success to be sustained throughout the whole year. The Trainer is one face of success…
I always remember when long ago in one of the spontaneous gathering of neighbors I commented how people who learn and work more than anyone else are subject to attacks and disparage (unlike Eddie F I had profound thoughts in my teens). The reply came not from a priest, a professor or a philosopher but it was a humble plumber who said: “people throw stones only at trees bearing great fruits”… then he parsimoniously drinks his beer as to give me time to assimilate a handyman’s wisdom…
Lol, love the quote. Have you noticed how many promising horses are making their career debut later and later?
Thanks for the reply Steve… yes… it could be that the pandemic has delayed things.
Chad Brown had a lot of newbies in his barn. He debuted Stage Raider half to Justify and I am watching Bennyfromthebronx half to Charlatan by Tapit who is steadily training since November.
I am waiting for Harvard (Pioneerof the Nile – Sambuca Classica by Cat Thief) half to Champion Classic Empire trained by Brisset. Brad Cox got Primary Endpoint half to California Chrome also by Pioneerof the Nile with only three breezes this year.
Also expecting to see good first showings by Naismith (Medaglia d’Oro) for Mandella and Royal Realm (Empire Maker) James Jerkens .
I will have you know that as a teen I thought profoundly about baseball and girls, but not necessarily in that order. I could write textbooks about both subjects, because — as the saying goes — “Those who can’t, teach.” With regard to the yet-to-race Baffert colts (or any other unraced prospects), I am conducting research on the subject of Derby runners with only 3 starts. Findings will be presented at an appropriate time.
Well Justify and Big Brown and both came along in bad crops. Curlin did OK but was well beaten. I believe Dunkirk tried it and wound up running huge in the Belmont after a bad start in the slop in the Derby. I still dont like to see it.
Would you be surprised to know that only 9 horses have reached the Derby in that 3-race category during this century? The first occurrence was in 2006. So my research doesn’t have a significant sample size from which to draw conclusions. 🙂 Nevertheless, I would not be inclined to rule out such a starter. For example, 5 were undefeated; 2 of them won the Derby. Two were post-time favorites; both won. It should also be noted that Summer Bird went on to be the 3yo Eclipse winner. Hard data will follow. I apologize for its length. I don’t think it’s possible to create multiple columns.
THREE STARTS PRIOR TO DERBY
Justify 2018 (undefeated)
Trainer, Derby finish: Baffert, WON
Debut: Feb. 18
Final prep: Santa Anita Derby, WON
Derby odds: $2.90-1 (favorite)
Hofburg 2018 (1 win)
Trainer, Derby finish: Mott, 7th
Debut: Sept. 2 (2yo)
Final prep: Florida Derby, 2nd
Derby odds: $27-1
Patch 2017 (1 win)
Trainer, Derby finish: Pletcher, 14th
Debut: Jan. 15
Final prep: Louisiana Derby, 2nd
Derby odds: $14-1
Materiality 2015 (undefeated)
Trainer, Derby finish: Pletcher, 6th
Debut: Jan. 11
Final prep: Florida Derby, WON
Derby odds: $11.50-1
Summer Bird 2009 (1 win)
Trainer, Derby finish: Tim Ice, 6th
Debut: Mar. 1
Final prep: Arkansas Derby, 3rd
Derby odds: $43-1
Dunkirk 2009 (2 wins)
Trainer, Derby finish: Pletcher, 11th
Debut: Jan. 24
Final prep: Florida Derby, 2nd
Derby odds: $5.20-1 (2nd favorite)
Big Brown 2008 (undefeated)
Trainer, Derby finish: R Dutrow, WON
Debut: Sept. 3 (2yo)
Final prep: Florida Derby, WON
Derby odds: $2.40-1 (favorite)
Curlin 2007 (undefeated)
Trainer, Derby finish: Asmussen, 3rd
Debut: Feb. 3
Final prep: Arkansas Derby, WON
Derby odds: $5.00-1 (2nd favorite)
Showing Up 2006 (undefeated)
Trainer, Derby finish: Tagg, 6th
Debut: Feb. 11
Final prep: Lexington Stakes, WON
Derby odds: $26-1
Great research. What I gather from that is three starts is not desirable. Justify was a great horse and TC winner in a bad crop. Big Brown had a two-turn race at 2 and was a superstar in a bad crop. Neither horse made it past August of their 3yo old campaign. Justify was gone by June. The only horses who had longevity were Curlin and Summer Bird . There was a reason for Curlin which I wont get into and Summer Bird was gone at 3. So if you want to win the Derby you better be a superstar. If you want longevity you are at a big disadvantage.
Thanks, Steve. I see what you’re saying about the horses that Justify and Big Brown faced in the ’08 and ’18 Derbies. But did you think they were bad crops before those Derbies? In 2018, Good Magic and Audible were considered to be quality runners. Heck, we’re still almost three months from the Derby and many of those we like now may not be so hot (or healthy) down the trail. As for longevity, that’s a consideration for after the Derby.
I would at least consider a 3-race Derby runner, particularly if he had an early debut like Big Brown and checked all other boxes.
I dont like to judge a crop that early, and its rare a crop looks bad before the Derby, but looking at it as a whole it turned out to be a poor crop and other than Good Magic there really werent any stars in the the TC races.
Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, Mendelssohn, McKinzie, Firenze Fire, Catholic Boy, Bolt d’Oro, Instilled Regard, Quip were also in the supposed ‘bad’ crop of 2018.
Bad crop meaning bad 3 year old crop. Other than Catholic Boy how many of those were top 3 year olds?
Magnum Moon won the Arkansas Derby, Rebel Stakes and was undefeated going into the Kentucky Derby; Vino Rosso had won the Wood Memorial Stakes and Steve Haskin’s No.1 in the Derby Dozen on May1, 2018; Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby by almost 20 lengths, 2nd in the Travers Stakes, 3rd Jockey Club Gold Cup; McKinzie won the Pennsylvania Derby, Malibu Stakes, Sham Stakes; Firenze Fire won Gallant Bob Stakes, Jerome Stakes, and 3rd in H. Allen Jerkens Stakes; Bolt d’Oro won San Felipe Stakes and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, and Steve Haskin’s No. 4 in the Derby Dozen on May 1; Instilled Regard won the LeComte Stakes; 3rd in the Hollywood Derby; and 4th in Kentucky Derby; Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby and 2nd in the Arkansas Derby.
Looks as though they all have fairly good credentials as 3 year olds.
…and Bravazo who won Risen Star Stakes, 2nd in the Preakness, Haskell Stakes, and Clark H. 3rd in the Travers Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.
somebody wins the Arkansas Derby and Risen Star etc every year. That doesnt make it a good crop. If youre basing the quality of the crop on Magnum Moon and Bravazo I dont know if there is much of a case there. By October or November you can judge a crop, certainly not before the Derby. Some crops look good before the Derby and arent and sosme crops dont look good before Derby and are.
No Steve, every 3 year old wins every 3 year old race, that’s a given. However, Magnum Moon had no chance to make a statement after the Derby, Vino Rosso did win the Eclipse Award for older Dirt horse the following year, McKinzie was a very good horse, Mendelssohn would have had a better record with a better preparation, the same with Bolt d’Oro but for totally other reasons.
Sometimes the universal of ‘poor crop’ is unfairly given without full consideration. I wouldn’t say they were a great crop but with all things considered there were some very good horses within the crop besides the Triple Crown winner.
Thanks Eddie for this compilation. It seems like being undefeated and winning a G1 translates into winning the Derby.
Keep up your energy…!
Materiality had very bad luck… but passed 10 horses in the stretch… in fact the son of Afleet Alex never showed his initial speed but was closing faster than everyone except perhaps for American Pharoah.
That’s 22% win rate–not bad, considering 20 horse fields!
Nice colt that DREAM SHAKE as he showed up ready to finished the right way stalking from the edge in that first out extended sprint. He’s still the bit immature, but has developed well in the physical since his appearance early last year in the sale. Interesting he was off the sheet during most his freshman year with works to finally appear in November. He moved fast enough for his tack show appearance and sale just before his handlers gave him that nice long break. He seems to act a bit which reminds me of his daddy and I consider that a plus. Which further telegraphs there’s more to him than the winner’s market will credit him for. That Argentina influence down his distaff tail may portend some distance ability as it reunites with the same Southern Cross influence’s contributed by CANDY RIDE up top. Some men don’t know their own imitations… DREAM SHAKE strikes me the same as a horse. And all from knowing my own in this game.
I love all the Argentine blood. Its just a concern trying to get to the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts
POSITIVITY sports a form that’s “over the top” so he checks in at 12/1 ML for the El Camino Real this weekend… However, I’m betting he proves useful under the whip of Julian Couton or anyone else’s whip for that mater.
Count Haskula of Jersey.
LOL, must be those South American spices
96 Beyer first start wide trip….
… and an impressive 90 Brisnet rating. The $75K purchase price has the makings of a steal!
Totally off topic I know but just watched a video of the American horses arriving in Meydan. They all look amazing but have to say Knicks Go is one gorgeous, gorgeous horse. Best of luck and safe racing for all (PS, Tacitus and Knicks Go are my favorites in the World Cup).
Todd Pletcher this year …
When a Trainer debuts in the Derby with not one but four horses it is only natural for people to construe that he is your reliable bridge to the Roses. Todd Pletcher’s operation has indeed been a gateway to the Derby with only 2003 the year without participation.
However, training to run in the Derby is not the same as training to win the Derby.
Coaxing your horse to win the big races and get big points in April implies the risk of just peaking in April.
That dynamic might answer some questions around less than expected performances at the Derby.
Assuming that any horse debuting the second half of February is out of the picture I see Pletcher’s once relevant band reduced due to the following:
Amount pulled up in the Holy Bull
Bourbonic is winning but in claiming ranks
Donegal Bay did not pass the Withers test
Dynamic One: highlighted by Steve in the KOTD segment the second week. Still a maiden but his second to Greatest Honour still reverberates in my head.
Ghazaaly: looks like a good one but might be too late for the party
Inspiration Point a 725K California Chrome colt is improving in New York but is still a Maiden
Likeable needs a lot of improvement out of his distant 4th in the Swale
Millean did not show anything in the Sam Davis
Prime Factor was not disgraced with his 3rd in the Holy Bull but he needs to develop a lot to be a contender
Known Agenda ran like a plodder going backwards in the first stage of the Sam Davis but came alive in the stretch to finish 5th four lengths behind. He deserves a mulligan specially when we know that Tampa has been a question mark to many horses in the past.
It is not very frequent to see Pletcher without winners in the Florida and New York early preps. At this point it appears that the Marathoner Overtook is the only one clearly carrying the Pletcher banner in route to the Roses.
Todd Pletcher got Turf runners that look very promising as well; just taking a look at the past performances of Avenue, Aviano, Fighting Force, Mubtadaa and Never Surprised one might thing that there could be a “hidden gem” there.
I am not sure if these turf horses are “cards up his sleeves” but one thing I know is that the Champion Trainer got 95% probabilities of having a horse in the Kentucky Derby.
“…but one thing I know is that the Champion Trainer got 95% probabilities of having a horse in the Kentucky Derby.”
Your probability estimation is accurate! What happened in 2003? I wonder if Lion Tamer was Pletcher’s best Derby prospect that year. LT won the Hutcheson, but was 4th in the Lane’s End and a well-beaten 6th in the Blue Grass. He didn’t race again until January, so perhaps he was injured.
LOL … I knew you were in a fact finding mode…!
As we have discussed in the past, that year was the only pimple in an otherwise immaculate Derby participation.
You are right about Lion Tamer and the best 3-year old for Pletcher’s Derby aspirations was supposed to be Strong Hope but he debuted in March … the son of Grand Slam accomplished a great campaign nonetheless.
Boston Bull was very good as a two-year old winning the Cowdin Stakes but got injured after a 3rd in the Nashua… the Boston Harbor never regained form after that.
I can’t remember what team won Sunday’s Super Bowl, but you remember a Pletcher discussion lord knows how long ago! I must eat more fatty fish.
Great stuff, Nelson. Todd was fortunate to win his first Derby, as Super Saver relished the slop and got a typical Calvin Borel ride, and Ice Box was tons the best in that race but had the trip from hell.
Dynamic One is back on the work tab and I write about him next week.
Known Agenda gets blinkers next race.
Theyre still pretty high on Prime Factor
Overtook on a good Thoro-Graph pattern
Ice Box — Was steadied three times but still made up 20+ lengths to finish second. Should have been one more Florida Derby winner to be successful on the first Saturday in May. Steve, in your estimation, which other contemporary Derby losers “shoulda” been winners?
Most grateful for your thorough information. We are greatly benefitting here from your exclusive updates and access to reliable inside information.
What a difference to other sites where you see an Uruguayan FOUR YEAR OLD (4Y-OLD) named El Patriota making the list of Derby Contenders… I have pointed out to them the Southern Hemisphere horse should be removed but no one cares over there…!
I do not know what is worse, Bezos offering 20 to 1 in a Future or this blooper. Go figure …!
This is just a popular trend. Putting down the popular trainer, athlete, coach. This is a tough game. Contrarians love these posts…….your point?……Todd forgot?
Do you just scroll through the comments looking to rag on an innocent victim? I found Nelson’s post interesting. I’m quite sure others did, too. (And Steve did, in fact.) It’s your problem if you misinterpreted it.
The Pletcher trained 3 year old Golden Whim, a 1.5 million Medaglia d’Oro yearling purchase, just ran last of 10 on debut at Gulfstream Park. In racing, luck can be very fickle.
The following active Trainers are commanding the stats of most starters in the Derby:
Todd Pletcher, D. Wayne Lukas, Bob Baffert, Steve Asmussen, Mike Maker, Dale Romans, Bill Mott, Shug McGaughey III, Barclay Tagg, Mark Casse and Doug O’Neill.
There are other active trainers with Derby experience like John Shirreffs, Graham Motion, Jerry Hollendorfer, John Saddler, Kenneth McPeek, Keith Desormeaux, Thomas Amoss and who can come up with a Derby horse at any time.
Any Godolphin Trainer could be the “on-deck batter” when it comes to the Derby. A very good horse can also land in any barn in any given year.
Chad Brown will be most likely joining the big 10 in the short term.
The success of dirt runners like Normandy Invasion, Practical Joke, Good Magic and Cloud Computing has long proven Chad Brown is more than a great turf trainer. He has actually decent stats in the Derby since 2013 with a second, a fourth and a fifth out of only five entrants.
This year Chad Brown can count on Risk Taking as his best Derby card.
Of course, we all know that there is a rising star vying for a place in that exclusive Derby club; Brad Cox has good chances of having as many as three horses reaching the Derby. Essential Quality, Caddo River and Mandaloun have shown above average talent and it is difficult not to see them progressing enough so as to get the needed qualifying points.
From there he could be the modern version of Todd Pletcher…
One thing I do in every trail is tracking hopefuls managed by these pivotal trainers.
If I may I will be sharing Trainers and their hopefuls in segmented posts.
*and Richard Mandella
Simon Callaghan……took Firing Line to Sunland Park, then to Louisville, where he ran well enough to win most Derbies….Callaghan and Cox, you get the feeling it’s a matter of time…..but also–‘The Kentucky Derby is a race that is won by trainers who don’t get many chances….John Servis….John Shirreffs….Barklay Tagg…..Art Sherman…Chip Wooley…….Charlie Whittingham…..Diodoro and Fincher are such players this year.
You are more than right Matthew … I was intending to write about the “one-shot one-hit” trainers or trainers with less than 3 starts with wins… but I wanted to make the post as succinct as possible …
I don’t want to be accused of “kidnapping” the forum … LOL
Nelson, I’m looking forward to your posts on trainers and their Derby prospects. I always look for requisite training experience in evaluating Derby hopefuls. If a trainer has not previously had a Derby runner, I check the record to see if he or she has trained multiple graded stakes winners (not including his or her current prospect). That qualification has helped to keep me from selecting/betting more than a few well-regarded Derby runners, Mine That Bird not withstanding.
This year we have quite a range of first-time Derby trainers — from the incredibly accomplished Brad Cox to Todd Fincher, who has had just one graded stakes win (Runaway Ghost in the 2018 G3 Sunland Derby). What a great story it would be if Senor Buscador won the roses this year, even if I don’t pick him. 🙂
Defeater has been scratched from the Risen Star in favor of an 8.5f allowance race on Saturday. Mandaloun moves to Post 10 for now.
Greatest Honour’s pace numbers (Brisnet) in the Holy Bull were unusually impressive for a 2-turn graded stakes for 3yos in January: E1 94, E2 103, LP 99, along with a speed rating of 103.
are you trying to put up all my comment information before I do?
LOL!!! It wasn’t my intention. I will limit future postings to descriptions of my heritage (incl 1/4 Vulcan).
Well, give yourself a Vulcan mind meld and cool it.
🙂 🙂 🙂
This segment is all to funny!!!!!!
Gotta keep it light. lol
To Coldfacts, in case you didnt see my post below I am repeating it
First off, thank you for the information about yourself. Second, do not ever come on here and suggest I or anyone on this blog gives a damn what your race is . I know that is you being you with your self deprecating manner, but dont ever bring up the issue of race on here again. It doesnt matter if you are black, red, Lartino, mixed or whatever. This is about racing among racing fans, period. Race is one thing I will nt tolerate on here, and for you to say your race is “likely to fuel negative critique” makes you sound like the racist.
I suspected my comment about my being black would have angered you immensely. .
But first, let me apologize to you for a possible inappropriate post. You fury is understandable. Consequently, context is warranted.
Over the years I have aked myself the following question. Why am I so disliked?
I try not to offend but offence seems to be taken where none is intended. At times I feel like one man against the world in these forums. My views on any issue is always viewed as controversial. I feel targeted. Such a feeling can lead to the development of negative thoughts.
After a process of elimination, I have concluded that it’s likely due to my genetic make up. I have been attacked by regulars supporters and by some folks, whose ID I am seeing for the first time. These attack are at time so vicious. They cannot be viewed as anything other than extreme hate..
I was once told that my very existence offended a particular individual. I knew category in which the individual belonged. The extreme nature of some the attacks directed towards me over the years on your blogs, has led me believe that some of the attackers, fall into a category of folks who harbor extreme views. But I have neve before infer or specified same.
That was until the attack below by someone whose ID I am not familiar with. I guess I just had enough of folks who know absolutely nothing about me. Bu have the audacity to characterize me in any way they see fit. I could never direct such a post to anyone, either known or unknown.
The poster drew first blood. I am at liberty to response in similarly extreme manner. My reply should be viewed in the proper context and not generalized.
NB: I have long felt that the attacks directed toward me are from extreme individuals. But I have never mentioned same due to the sensitive nature of the issue. You have never been in my shoes.
“Why am I so disliked?”
You are not disliked. I doubt that anyone here know YOU in the personal sense.
Quite a few, but probably not all, Haskin readers don’t like many of YOUR POSTS…for various reasons. If you look at the issue in that light, you may feel better.
I know him…..17 years……
He gets off on this……to not know this …..is not my fault……a lady can post LOVE for a horse…….he will try to badger that person…….any comment of a horse being great, running great?……He will rain on the parade……..im am not lying…..there is not one great horse……that he has liked……THINK of the great horses we have seen……..NOT ONE……..is this someone that is here for horses?……….
You ae right about him never liking a top horse.
To reiterate what I wrote earlier in response to another of your posts, I read them and respond as constructively as I am able at the time, or not. No hard feelings. I don’t care what you look like, or how you live outside of these pages, except to say that I wish you as well as I would any other fellow human being, and even more so because there is a connection by Steve’s grace. I would miss you if you stopped participating. So I hope you will continue.
Steve Haskin says:
February 11, 2021 at 8:14 pm (Edit)
No I have never in your shoes, but think of this blog as a Japanese restaurant where you take off your shoes and just enjoy the food. What is inside your shoes, whatever prejudices you have endured, are left at the door here. You are just another poster who has come here to enjoy the Derby trail. I have never met anyone on here, but in this realm we are all family. If there are people who dislike you, welcome to the world. Everyone is disliked by someone. There are some who may feel you are antagonistic and a contrarian in a passive aggressive manner. I was one of them, but have accepted your critiques and come to appreciate the work you put into your posts. You can critique all you want as long as you actually read the comments and not just look at the order of the rankings. I dont think we need to discuss this any further. You are welcome here, and if people dislike you that is their problem.
Why did i post how you are the passive aggressive poster boy?……because you are. I have seen this for 17 years….You are here to irritate him……i didnt even read the post in question……it is you.
I believe he has a persecution complex. I dont mind his critiques, I just dont like him throwing his race into the picture.
Mr. Diodoro’s excuse to enter Keepmeinmind in the Southwest instead of the Risen Star doesn’t pass the smell test, IMO.
The prospect of facing 5 or 6 major contenders in the Risen Star, and drawing p/p #12, versus facing 2 major players in the Southwest (Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior) probably convinced him to opt for the Southwest. However, the real head scratcher here, is the points. Why go after 10 points instead of 50?
He entered in the Risen Star just in case, as he said. Well, a week delay looks llike a just in case. Then he mentioned Covid restrictions, but they were there when he entered. I would think its the post, but with his running stlyle it shouldnt matter that much. I really dont know the reason, perhaps he decided its too much of a hassle to travel. Who knows?
Thanks for the reply Steve
You’re probably right, Keepmeinmind lacks early speed, and drawing p/p 12 was probably the determining factor to opt for the Southwest. However, Keepmeinmind has shown a considerable amount of class in three graded races, which in my view, could have kicked in, during the late stretch run, to have him right there or thereabouts, at the wire. The points angle still bothers me, but it’s certainly Diodoro’s choice to enter his colt when and where he chooses.
Mandaloun is still my choice to take down the Risen Star.
Safe trips to all.
My only concern with him right now are is slow speed ratings on all the speed figures. But he sems to be very sharp going into his debut.
Thanks again for the reply Steve
One other thing. I noticed you mentioned Rombauer in your KOTD segment who’s pointed to this weekend’s El Camino Real Derby (10 points). We all know not a lot of past winners coming out of that race had much impact on the Derby trail. If in fact Rombauer were to win the El Camino, would you find a place for him in your top 16 Derby Rankings?
Just wondering.
Thanks Steve
The odds have just been posted on Equibase, Mandaloun is the M/L favorite at 9/2.
We keep horses home when we can……..not a mystery
News on a potential future knocker on the door: It appears Brooklyn Strong, to whom Known Agenda ran third in the Remsen, has recovered from the minor illness that kept him from the Withers and is expected to race again next month, possibly in the Gotham or Rebel Stakes. Per Byron King at BloodHorse.
I write about him next week. Just waiting for him to work. Assuming he will need 3, more likely 4 works thats another 3 weeks or a month if he were to work now and thats getting tight
Steve, I just read the Bloodhorse story that Perimeister mentioned. Brooklyn Strong’s trainer anticipates that the colt will breeze in about two weeks.
Thats what I mean. That’s pretty late to start breezing and get two preps in. He would need to run in early March and I dont see that happening if hes going to start breezing in late February.
On the other hand, it’s at least entertaining, if not inspirational, when a horse lives up to its name.
(Elsewhere I have rhapsodized about Echoes of Destiny in this regard.)
In case some of you havent heard. Oaklawn has canceled the weekend card, so the Southwest will now be run the following Saturday Feb. 20. That means that the next Rankings will be on Monday as usual.
Thanks for the Information Steve…!
The four-day delay should not be a problem for the trainers.
We will anyways have a lot to think about with the 50-point awarding Risen Star… the winner will be getting a sure ticket to the Derby.
Would Keepinmind remain in the Risen Star for the points and avoid facing two strong competitors in the Southwest?
DRF reported that Keepmeinmind will stay at Oaklawn for the Southwest.
“Just like humans transferring hot to cold or cold to hot, there’s always a chance of getting sick,” Diodoro said. “We don’t want to take that chance.”
LOL. So temperature changes make us ill. I need to tell my doctor that he was wrong about that.
Italians have always been susceptible to the “colpo d’aria.” Makes sense their horses would be, too.
Maybe that’s why you will find cavallo on the menu at many restaurants in Italy.
Over 4.3 million horses are consumed per year by people in Europe and Asia. That’s a lot of frighten, distressed horses.
That’s a very distressing thought. I myself couldn’t stomach it.
Perish my thought-association process, but I am curious whether you were able to indulge in your usual holiday routines this past season, and did you gain any new insight into the pitfalls of Bunny’s relationship with Mike?
Orecchiette d’allenatore is only a seasonal specialty, whereas cavallo is available year round. Maybe the horses are even more delicate than the trainers’ ears.
I was hungry. Now i’m not.
Isnt Louisiana next door to Arkansas? Not quite ike going from Louisiana to Miinneota
New Orleans is about 500 miles south of Hot Springs. It’s usually much warmer in New Orleans during the winter, due to being further south and not at a high elevation. And the food is much better in New Orleans ALL YEAR, which also contributes to the higher temperatures.
Glad you asked? 🙂
Right you are. Crawfish Étouffée helps keep me warm.
Not: [(Crawfish Etouffee (LA) TB, B, G, FOALED APRIL 4, 2000 ( PRINCE OF THE MT. – FIRST DEBATE, BY WAR OF WORDS )]
LOL. Not that there’s anything wrong with that!
Nelson, the weather looks worse next week. This could turn out to be a real headache for trainers with multiple runners on the Derby Trail.
The forecast for Saturday 20 reads:
Partly cloudy early followed by mostly cloudy skies and a few showers later in the day. High 47F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
For Friday 19 is:
Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 42F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph.
When it comes to weather prediction the only thing I can say is … just prepare for the worst but expect for the best…
The historic average is actually 54F during this time of the year. Let’s hope for a sudden burst of warmth.
I’d put a large question mark on the Southwest being run next Saturday, the weather isn’t improving during the week. So much for the hot springs coming to the rescue.
Random thoughts on the Risen Star Stakes:
*Keepmeinmind might run in the Risen Star rather than in the Southwest. The long-range forecast for the Oaklawn area on Monday is for snow and a high temp of 23. A cold day in Hot Springs.
*Mandaloun gets blinkers for his second start off the 49-day layoff. Brad Cox wins at a 24% rate with the first-time blinkers on angle. Of course, he wins everything at a 24% rate.
*Midnight Bourbon’s dam has four graded stakes winners of four foals to race (including 2017 Risen Star winner Girvin). You don’t see that every day.
*O Besos and Defeater are stretching out from 6f to 9f. Good luck!
*Sermononthemount was purchased last year at a Texas sale for $3,500. Carillo was purchased this year at a dispersal sale for $850,000. If the former finishes ahead of the latter, the adviser who recommended Carillo will have some ‘splainin’ to do.
EddieF,
You seem to have endorse the assessment that my posts are nonsensical. My most recent post cover O Besos an Orb colt you wished good luck stretching out.
Your post covered the following:
Details of likely weather condition.
Mandaloun – Addition of blinkers; period between starts and trainer win % with the addition of blinkers.
Racing Profile of dam of Midnight Bourbon.
Two RS entrants stretching out
Comparison of purchase price for two RS entrants.
No one would consider your random thoughts nonsensical
My post highlighted the following:
The debut performance of Candy Man Rocket & O Boses
The # of lengths O Besos trailed Candy Man Rocket and he # of length he finished ahead
The next out races for the two colt
The pedigree of O Besos
His closing exploits in sprint race.
A comparison of Senor Buscador & O Besos 5 1/2F victories.
My post is considered nonsensical.
Why did I a get into so much details regarding O Besos? I probably shouldn’t have shared same but that isn’t important.
The colt handily finished ahead of Candy Man Rocket over 61/2F after trailing him by 14L. It does appear O Besos was the stronger finisher. Candy Man Rocket successfully stretched out from 6F to 8 1/2F in his Sam Davis win. O Besos last race was over 6F. What’s the prospect of O Besos stretching out from 6F to 9F?
Given that O Besos trailed CMR by 14L and finished 4L ahead, this could signal he likely to possesses more stamina than CMR. O Besos won his last star over 6F 1:10+ closing off pace, whilst under moderate urging at the end. He has closed off the pace in all his starts. He clearly has graded stakes speed and appears to have the stamina to carry same over a distance of ground.
Using Candy Man Rockets’ win in the Sam Davis as a measure and reflection on his performance against O Besos over 6 1/2F. I was just trying to extrapolate a likely 9F performance by O Besos. The details suggest O Beso should be effective at 9F despite not having a start beyond 6 1/2. But one never knows.
Why would such a post would be deemed nonsensical remains puzzling. But it came from my keyboard so I am not surprised.
I am well aware you do not hold me in high regards. But I would appreciate if you could set aside your contempt for me and give me an objective assessment of my post below regrading O Besos.
Thanks in adance
To Coldfacts, You talk of respect but you don’t show any. Steve asked you to post only once and you refused showing no respect at all. We you enjoy Steve’s postings are getting sick of you taking to much space. You’re soliloquys are raising CO2 levels in our environment. Please keep it to a minimum and we’re just sick of you taking up the page!
I don’t think Coldfacts makes double posts on purpose—I made a double post on my phone one time–because when you hit the prompt, it doesn’t show up–and so I hit it a second time….eventually they both showed up!
That’s why I mentioned that it might bea computer issue
I use Apple with various search engines. The website actually prevents me from double posting – you get a warning advising that you have already posted this ‘post’ beforehand and stops double posting.
Many thanks for your reply particularly the CO2 highlight. Double posts are unintentional and sometime I am not sure they occur.
Please don’t take Derek’s comments as speaking for all of us. I am sure you don’t deliberately post exactly the same thing many times.
I read what you write when I can, and try to respond constructively when I disagree. When I don’t have the brainpower to fairly read what you write, I don’t read it. The end.
I am married with a daughter. My wife drives an SUV and I drive a sedan. We are home owners. My wife goes to church and absolutely do not. I take my daughter to dance classes twice per week.
In addition to Thoroughbred Racing I am big fan of Track & Field. I have few cold ones with associates from time to time. I have friends and family over for Thanksgiving & Christmas. I do a bit of gardening during the spring. I also pay taxes despite my opposition to same..
I am mixed race but for you I will classify myself as black. This is likely to further fuel your negative critique.
I am of the opinion that I have the profile of regular American citizen.
You have chosen to characterize me in a very unflattering manner. Despite what you might think of me, I could under no circumstance characterize you in such a derogatory fashion. I am not one that secures pleasure from the demeaning a fellow man.
Your statement above reflects the corruption that resides within you. But alas! There is no man too low down that cure for his condition doesn’t lie within himself.
The true measure of a man is not necessarily his title or his position, but rather how he treats others. – Victor L. Browm
First off, thank you for the information about yourself. Second, Do not ever come on here and suggest I or anyone on this blog is a racist. I know that is you being you with your self deprecating manner, but dont ever bring up the issue of race on here again. It doesnt matter if you are black, red, Lartino, mixed or whatever. This is about racing among racing fans, period. Race is one thing I will nt tolerate on here, and for you to say your race is likely to fuel negative critique makes you sound like the racist.
Can you point out where Eddie F. endorsed the assessments that your points were nonsensical. Once again you go on the defensive for no reason.
Thank you, Steve. I replied to Coldfacts as politely as possible. Unfortunately, we don’t have the Block function here.
I stated that it seemed you endorsed a certain critique of my posts. This suggested a lack of certainty. I revisited your post and my assessment was wrong.
For whatever offence my assertion might have caused . You have my sincere apology.
I find the blocking option to be useful. But it is negated by the fact that one can address a supporter directly as opposed to via a reply.
GL with your KD selection on the big day.
Apology accepted. By the way, a guy at DRF has made O Besos his top pick in the Risen Star. See “TimeformUS Road to the Derby: Stamina, not talent, the question for intriguing longshot O Besos in Risen Star”.
I give him a shot as well. We have no idea how good he is
I might have misunderstood Eddie’s statement and I have apologized. I asserted that my fellow supporter seemed to have endorsed the conclusion. This suggested a lack of certainty..
I am by means on the defensive.
You have brought certain issues to my attention in your reply to the ProVet, It appears the manner in which I participate runs contrary to expectations. I must accept same and move on.
You mentioned in your reply that I seem to have a lot of time on my hands. Given COVID a lot of folks have more time for reasons I am sure you are aware of. Assuming I do, it’s not a unique situation.
I have establish what I consider to be a fast path to researching information on horses. My problem is choosing what to share and how I share it.
Regarding my posts that you have deemed to be at your expense. If I am unable to understand one of your decision. I will highlight the basis on which I disagree. It’s never a case that I am doing same at your expanse. It is possible for the same set of facts to be analyzed and different conclusion reached.
Steve ,
its all good. I have tried to be a good supporter but yet again I have failed.
How many times can one not make contact with balls over the plate and not strike out?
You dont need to be a good supporter. Be who you are. If you create controversy there is nothing wrong with that. Just post your opinions and what you believe, and if someone criticizes your opinion in a civil way you cant get defensive about it. Everything works both ways.
Coldfacts, your reply is misplaced. Someone else referred to your posts as nonsensical. In fact, I offered a defense of sorts for you. Anyway, I’m assuming that English isn’t your first language because you have a long history of not understanding what other people write. Perhaps you put people’s comments through Google Translate. Perhaps you write your comments in your first language and then put them through Google Translate so that you can post them. (But that would not explain the seemingly endless string of typos and bizarre punctuation in your posts.)
If I’m wrong in my assumptions, then your issues are much more serious than language.
My apology.
I think I heard Keepmeinmind is heading for Arkansas
He better not be unless he wants to wait a week to run .
These posts from Coldcuts are so nonsensical…..yes…..we know he posts on here for one reason……to irritate steve…….we “get” it…….passive aggressiveness at it’s best…….but why?…..to say you named the winner of the derby in feb? in a post?….why talk about 30 horses every year that never have been in top 3 ?…..it has been 17 years of reading this…..i’m telling the truth…..30 a year……none have hit the top 3…….why name these horses he names?
On the other hand, he doesn’t use ellipses.
Are they really ellipses if they are inappropriate in number? I think they are just stutters in text form.
Insert belly laugh emoji here.
LOL. Yes, Diana, those are ellipsis points regardless of how they’re used or how often they’re used. My theory is that they serve as discourse markers (e.g., uh, um, y’know) for the Pro Vet. Trust what I say because I wrote my dissertation on the subject of ellipses.
Diana, I apologize. I made a grievous error. My dissertation was about eclipses.
I understand they are still ellipses. My comment was strictly for the comedic value; although in reality, I do feel a bit uncomfortable making comments about specific people in an anonymous format, despite several of us having been on multiple platforms.
I’m not sure we should complain or joke about pro vet’s use of the ellipsis. Do we really want to know what is being elided?
EddieF, you crack me up. Humor is the best medicine.
🙂
Yes, its been a lot of years, but at this stage on this website I’ll take whatever comments I can get. He certainly has a lot of time on his hands, but I’m glad he puts all that research into it, whatever his intentions are. He at least makes things interesting, even if at my expense. And I appreciate your observations as well even though you remain anonymous and dont explain what those observations are, just the conclusions. Thanks for sticking around. Your comments are always welcomed.
Mr. Haskin
As you are aware one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
I have posted comments on several horses that I think are worthy of mention. I do not usually expect agreement with my views. I have also provided my perspectives of several horses on the Derby Trail. These perspectives are often different form those of others.
I have engage fellow supporters on issues off disagreement. This doesn’t render me disagreeable. In the instances where I am in disagreement with your rankings. I usually provide the details on which my disagreements are based. This I try to in what I consider to be respectful manners
Whilst my approach might be different. I do not consider it to outside outside participation protocol. What exactly is wrong with what I have been doing?
I find it interesting that my posts are always given negative critiques. But those submitted by other supporters of this space are works of brilliance.
I was unaware that my approach is at your expense. For this you have my sincere apology.
I am extremely disappointed that I have been unknowingly a parasite. Further, if my post are viewed as mere fillers on a blog in a growth phase, then they absolutely have no place here.
I greatly appreciate being advised of the above. The appropriate action will be undertaken.
Respect!
I said you put a lot of research in it and make things interesting. How does that initiate a response saying you are considered a parasite, unless you perceive derogatory remarks in your own mind. Where did I say your remarks are merely fillers. And who said there is anything wrong with what you are doing? I specifically said I appreciate all comments. It does seem by me and others that you go out of your way to disagree with rankings even though it appears as if you dont read my comments just the ranking. I dont care in the slightest if you disagree with me as long as you make valid points. I wouldnt be so sensitive and see hostile comments where there are none. If you take exception to what Provet says, feel free to fire a return salvo. If I feel he gets too personal I will delete that reference. I do and just did criticize his lack of explantation of his observations. I hope you continue to comment, as all your points and opinions and research are gladly accepted and appreciated.
Btw, I previously had asked you not to post the same comment several minutes later. I dont know if you are doing it or it is a computer issue, but, again, I would appreciate it if you would post your comment only once. Thank you.
Dear Steve, At 11:55 AM I felt compelled to reply to Colfacts. I hope I didn’t cross the line and if I did please forgive me I thank you for all your work through the years and especially these days since its keeping many of sane and the hope of finding the next DERBY winner.
No, you just reiterated what I told him. He normally doesnt respond when I address him, but hopefully he will heed your words. In his last post he did respond regarding criticisms of him I never made, so there ya go. Hope to see you back often offering your comments and opinions.
Mr. Haskin
As you are aware one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
I have posted comments on several horses that I think are worthy of mention. I do not usually expect agreement with my views. I have also provided my perspectives of several horses on the Derby Trail. These perspectives are often different form those of others.
I have engage fellow supporters on issues off disagreement. This doesn’t render me disagreeable. In the instances where I am in disagreement with your rankings. I usually provide the details on which my disagreements are based. This I try to same in what I consider to be respectful manners
Whilst my approach might be different. I do not consider it to be outside outside participation protocol.
I find it interesting that my posts are always given negative critiques. But those submitted by other supporters of this space are works of brilliance.
I was unaware that my approach is at your expense. For this you have my sincere apology.
I am extremely disappointed that I have been unknowingly a parasite. Further, if my post are viewed as mere fillers on a blog in a growth phase, then they absolutely have no place here.
I greatly appreciate being advised of the above. The appropriate action will be undertaken.
Respect!
Nothing about Senor Buscador makes sense……he looks like a unicorn…..he cannot be real…..i bet him off unicorn only…..
Keepmeinmind is my fav……he is EQ without the paddle….and runs straight.
Life is good doesnt relax……but he either is not a derby horse…..or a superhorse…..i saw something very weird…..in his race….that indicated he stopped bad…..but his figs were high…..what im saying is….i think he ran bad…..if that is bad….then what is him not stopping…..i am leaning on disliking him….but he has a small chance of being a super star…..i just gotta see one more is what i’m saying….what i saw was so strange……caddo river has what i look for…..really like him….
I like all the horses you like. Maybe you need to reconsider.
Yes, I mentioned EQ’s paddle in the first Rankings, but somtimes that has no effect on a horse, at least for the time being. I like the way Life is Good has been relaxing in the morning but like you I need to see his next race and see how he handles pressure. I too cant figure Senor B, but those first two races were too wild to ignore. I dont know what were dealing with, but we’ll know in a few days
Candy Man Rocket the winner of the Sam Davis made his debut 11/22/2020 at CD over 6 1/2F. He finished 7th. Finishing immediately in front of him was a chestnut colt by he name O Boses. Why highlight the 6th & 7th place finishers in a meaningless MSW? See Below:
Since Candy Man Rocket’s debut loss, he has been undefeated in 2 starts . A MSW win over 6F in 1:10+ and his Sam Davie win. O Besos is likewise undefeated in two starts. He won over 5 1/2F and 6F in 1:10+. And your point is?
In MSW that featured the debut for both colts. O Besos raced 14 1/2L behind Candy Man Rocket at the 1/2. He erased that deficit to finish 4L in front of the Sam Davis winner at the line. Given that one colt had the speed and stamina to close such a wide gap and add lengths. He must be consider the better of the two until otherwise proven.
Senor Buscador will be one of the fancied entrants in the RS. He won on debut over 5 1/2F closing from 11L last after a tardy start. O Besos broke his maiden over 5 1/2F closing from 11L last after a slow start. Both colt has displayed serious closing speed.
Senor Buscador next start was over 8F which he won closing from last. O Besos has only raced over 6 1/2F. But his pedigree suggests he can go much further. We certainly will find out
O Besos was sired by the FL & Kentucky Derby winner Orb.. His dam sire Soto holds the Stakes and Track Record (1:46+) for the 9F West Virginia Derby. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes closing from 16L off the pace.
This colt is an unknown at the distance of the Risen Star. But his closing speed at shorter distances, suggest that with slower fractions over a longer distance. He should be able to relax and unleash his closing kick.
The big question has to be. Is he good enough?.
I had an uncle named Izzy Goodnough. He died trying.
There was a Philadelphia Flyer with that name and they called him Izzy, too
Small world! Hahahaha
The next Derby pool has been posted. Bezos was dropped (no surprise there) but the maiden winner who beat him is (Dream Shake), as is at least one horse not on my radar at all, Swiftsure. Pretty wack.
Steve, can you enlighten us on Swiftsure and Dream Shake?
They have Swiftsure listed? What is wrong with these people. Hes out of a Speightstown mare nad has run twice both a 6 furlongs. They cant find anyone else to put on there? Dream Shake will be in next week’s Knocking on the Door
LOL. Hidden Stash and your #16 Overtook would be far more deserving. Neither is in KDFW3.
…and Proxy!!!
They dropped Proxy. Guess he wasn’t inexperienced enough.
I sent texts to Jimmy Bell and Mike Stidham about Proxy being dropped when hes going to be one of the favorites in Saturday’s Risen Star But they have 5 sprinters on there and have the horse he beat in the LeComte. I am rooting for hi for that alone. Even if he doesnt run big he still should not have been dropped
…and Tarantino!!!
Brisnet figures for Davis and Withers:
92 for Risk Taking
87 for Candy Man Rocket
No colt has come close this year in a stakes to Greatest Honour’s 103 in the Holy Bull (The Great One had a 101 in his MSW win). As Steve wrote, GH “is already fast enough to win the Derby.”
I’ll take a 92 right now expecting more improvement next time. But considering he has only one more prep and needs a lot of points he better improve. Hoping to get the more important Thoro-Graph fig by late tomorrow. He will really need to improve off his 10 in his maiden win.
Risk Taking received an Equibase Speed Figure of 102, in the Withers, versus 90 for Candy Man Rocket in the Sam F. Davis. Speed figures (Brisnet, Equibase, Timeform and Beyers) can be interpreted in various ways, but judging by the 12 point variance assigned to Risk Taking vs Candy Man Rocket, I would think Risk Taking’s performance in the Withers would rate him significantly higher than that of Candy Man Rocket’s performance in the Sam F. Davis. Just my opinion.
I would add that Greatest Honour received an Equibase Speed Figure of 103 in the Holy Bull, just 1 point higher than Risk Taking in the Withers. Just something to ponder.
Agree completely about the Risk Taking v Candy Man Rocket comparison. I don’t follow the Equibase figure, so I can’t vouch for it as a measure of performance. But the only figures that mean anything to me for the Derby are the numbers for a horse’s final two preps.
Excellent point on the final two Derby preps, a strong indication on current form going into the Derby.
BOCA BOY
A stated ahead of the Sam Davis, I was convinced the subject colt was the fastest in the field. As a result I took a shot with him to across the board and in my exocit wagers.
Whilst viewing the post parade it was obvious the colt was fresh and energize.. I was disappointed that a colt with such natural speed was affixed with blinkers. The headgear would certainly make him ranked and less likely to rate kindly after 4 moths away from competition..
Whilst he didn’t run off he was clearly on the muscle and as I expected, he showed all and sundry a clean pair of hooves to the top the stretch. The 1:10.80 for 6F was too much for a colt returning from 4 months off. He didn’t fold like dead bird when passed by 2 opponents, but instead sustained a decent enough gallop to lose 3rd late.
Boca Boy was never mentioned in the race review above. But the also ran KNOWN AGENDA and SMILEY SOBOTKA were. Both KNOWN AGENDA and SMILEY SOBOTKA would have entered the Davis much sharper and probably fitter than Boca Boy. SMILEY SOBOTKA tested Boca Boy but retreated early. KNOWN AGENDA was so far behind his late closing burst wasn’t enough to deny Boca Boy 4th.
It might have been assessed that whilst Boca Boy has good speed, he doesn’t have the pedigree to be effective over 10F. Was California Chrome viewed as having the pedigree to be a KD winner and 2timed HOTY? Boca Boy’s performance in the Davis 4 months between starts, could prove to be a tightener for his next assignment. If that happens to be in the Tampa Bay Derby. The Chris Berman quote could be applicable – ‘He could go all the way’.
California Chrome? I hope youre not serious because if you are you know absolutely nothing about pedigree.
Chrome had the bloodlines….but what made him such an anomaly was—while the bloodlines were there, they came via such underachieving parents, sire who didn’t win a two turn race, and a dam that did–but it was an $8K maiden claimer!
Berman also said, “Part-time information and full-time opinions can be very dangerous.”
Steve, you’ve had countless conversations with Derby trainers. Can you shed some light on how they approach the timing of their runners’ final prep? There’s a huge difference between entering the La Derby 6 weeks out and the Arkansas Derby 3 weeks out. The only horse to win with the 6-week interval was Animal Kingdom. After a 4+-month layoff, he returned with a mile turf race, then 23 days later the 9f Spiral on the all-weather track at TP. Would he have been as sharp in the Derby if there had been more space between the two preps or if he was given three races after the layoff?
I’m not quite getting your question about Animal Kingdom. More space than 23 days between preps? I guess he was sharp enough bebcause he won. But you cant forget that unlike horses today who start off in sprints, AK never ran in a sprint so he had penty of bottom under him and that wasnt a very strong Derby field. The Turfway Polytack back then was very tiring. I remember when Hard Spun worked a mile over it and was knocked for a several days afterward. So that gave AK even more bottom. for some reason no horse has won the Derby coming off the La. Derby. Those that did run in th La. Derby had a race afterward. One side note on Animal Kingdom he wasnt Team Valor’s Derby horse. I forgot his name, but AK was going to run in the undercard stakes, the Rushaway, and this other horse was going to run in the Spiral, but because of the oversized field he didnt have enough earnngs to get in the race. So the two horses switched races. The other horse didnt amount to much, but AK surprised everyone with his impressive win and the rest is history.
Thanks for the reply, Steve. I see now that my second question (about AK) wasn’t as clear as intended. But my first question was about trainers’ approaches. With regard to AK’s preps, I was wondering if you thought that his relatively short 23-day turnaround from the allowance to the Spiral might have had a positive impact as opposed to the more common 1 mo. to 1.5 mo. between races. All of the others that were entering the Derby after 6 weeks off had 5 weeks or more between the two final preps; but with the exception of Master of Hounds, they all had more than two preps that year. How does a trainer conclude that 6 weeks is beneficial? (Or, for that matter, 3, 4, or 5 weeks). That’s what I was trying to understand.
I’m still old school and cant fathom 23 days as being relatively short. Back then 14 days was the norm. If 23 days is a short time between races then 6 weeks should be no problem. Back then one month to 1 1/2 months was an eternity between a final prep and the Derby. Even Majestic Prince ran after te SA Derby and equaled a track record. Trainers convince themselves 6 weeks is beneficial when they have no althernatives. If youre at FG you run in the La. Derby and trainers today are petrified to run between that race and the Ky. Derby. They dont want to risk it so they convince themsleves they can train them up to the Derby.
That all makes sense. I just wish the Fair Grounds folks would settle on 5 weeks out from the KD. In the last 10 runnings of the La Derby (not counting last year), six were 5 weeks out. The 2011, 2016, 2018, and 2019 were 6 weeks out. I also wish they hadn’t lengthened the La Derby.
I’m sure they did that to counteract the 6 weeks, give a horse a stronger foundation
Yeah. So much for “running a furlong longer in the Derby than they’ve ever run before.”
From memory, the other Team Valor colt was Crimson China. May have placed in the Rushaway Stakes.
I bid $1,000 for your memory.
Lol! I wouldn’t on a Friday or Saturday night.
That’s okay. You obviously recover quickly. 🙂
Ha ha Part of living.
BEZOS:
In the many views I have posted about the subject unraced colt being listed as a betting interest in the KDF Pool #2. None have proven to be more true than my assertion, that the inclusion of an unraced betting interest in pool #2, represented an insult to other trainers with 2YO that were generating a buzz due to fast works.
Only a 2YO/3YO from the barn of Bob Baffert would be afforded such a distinction. The obvious question has to. Why? There should have been a single wager placed on subject colt. This would have signaled a resounding rejection of this unprecedented disrespect for not only all other trainers but the wagering public.
But it appears in this country gullibility exist at an epidemic levels. The idolization of individuals can lead to all kind of craziness. January 6th is an occurrence many will never forget. But will it be a teachable moment highlighting dangers of idolization.
Bob Baffert has an unparalleled record in the TC series. On 2 occasions he has on 3 KDs in a six year span. He has saddled consecutive winners of KDs and two TC winner. But despite his record, care must be taken that recognition doesn’t morph into idolization. Care must also betaken that other trainer are not diminished by the pacing of Bob Baffert on a pedestal.
All that glitter isn’t gold. No one knowns the secret to the success Mr.. Baffert. In a sport plagued by performance enhancers and unethical behavior no trainer should be idolized and view as the high mark in the sport. Particularly when the dark clouds that hover over Thoroughbred Racing are viewed to be darker over certain barns.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the 2020 renewal of the Epsom Derby with a last out maiden winner. Not only was Surpentine a last our maiden winner, he had only broken his maiden 7 days earlier over 10F. A distance 2F shorter than the Epsom Derby. Who cold have imagined that a colt with such a resume, with only 7 days between start, could return to decimate opponents in Europe’s most prestigious Derby.
Despite Mr. O’Brien record of achievements he is respected but not idolized. His achievements have not been disguised in any way to diminish his fellow trainer.
As a Brit you should know better than to compare European racing to American racing. The preparation is totally different. Lammtarra not only won the Epsom Derby off only one maiden win he set a new course record and then won the King George and Arc, retiring with 4 wins in 4 starts
Vegas sets a line in sports which they believe will get the public to bet each side of that number equally, minimizing their risk while they collect the juice. When a trainer such as Baffert has a much hyped unraced horse like Bezos, Vegas takes advantage of that knowing the public will bite with the likelihood of having to payout relatively small. People cannot resist “a sure thing” and Vegas takes advantage. KC and the over was the overwhelming sentiment this past weekend, but it was Tampa and the under. Vegas cleaned up. Another example is the recent Mike Tyson and Roy Jones fight. Any wonder it finished in a draw. The only winners were those who bet it to finish that way. Again, Vegas cleaned up. And if a year in which Vegas had lost an enormous amount of money due to the pandemic, I believe the fight was fixed from the start.
Assessing the potential of horses that contest 9F races at Aqueduct can be as challenging as the changing
dynamics of the surface of the venue. Times can vary as much as 4 seconds.
Overtook finished 3rd by 21L in a 9F MSW at Aqueduct to Known Agenda and Greatest Honour.
The final time for the race was 1:55.89. His extrapolated finishing time would be in the region of 1:59+
Risk Taking won a 9F MSW at Aqueduct. The final time for the race was 1:53.14. Given the 1:55.89
recorded by Known Agenda and Greatest Honour. Can it be asserted that Risk Taking is the better of the two?
Both Risk Taking and Overtook entered the Withers after breaking their maidens at Aqueduct. Both
likewise entered the race with a start over 9F at the venue. However, the difference between their respective
times for the distance is an estimate 6 second.
Risk Taking won the Withers in 1:51.91 and Overtook finished 2nd by 3 3/4L. Using approximations, Risk
Taking improved on his previous 9F time by 1+ second and Overtook improved on his by 7+ seconds.
Using the above approximation, it appears Overtook recorded a significantly better performance in defeat than Risk Taking in victory. However, given the changing nature of the surface at Aqueduct. It cannot be accurately determined going forward if Overtook is likely to emerge the better of the two.
Added to the dilemma is the fact that Known Agenda the winner of a 9F, MSW over Greatest Honour and Overtook, finished off the board in the Sam Davis. Whereas Greatest Honour won his next two start and Overtook finished first and second in his next two starts.
I guess Florida has been kind to Greatest Honour. But not so for Known Agenda.
Steve, you may well be right but I was more impressed with the performances by the first three runners in the Sam F. Davis Stakes than the same in the Withers Stakes. Mind you, I agree with you entirely on the ‘positives and negatives’ you ascribe to the horses in each race just that, for me, the positive slanting upward goes more to Tampa than with Aqueduct. Time will tell. Historically though, neither race has had a major impact on winning the roses so it probably of little consequence.
Next weekend is when reality starts kicking in on the Derby Trail, along with any margin of error being costly. Some of the races decided upon by a few trainers seem confusing but it’s their gamble to play and good luck to them. Let’s hope there are no regrets later on down the line.
A colt you haven’t mentioned is the WinStar colt, Unanimously. At the Fair Grounds on Saturday he put in a nice, long, sustained run to win after being bumped at the start. Pedigree confirms that a classic distance shouldn’t be a problem. Steve Asmussen is monitoring his progress so, will have to wait and see.
Great fun to read, as always. Thanks Steve.
Because Unanimously’s two wins were for Louisiana-breds, rather than write something quickly and squeeze him in with all the other information I decided to wait until next week until I found out something more about him, like why a horse with his oedigree is a La.-bred. Normally those races for La-breds are very weak and why would WinStar and Asmussen run him there if they felt he was a top-class horse. So I have a text in to Scott Blasi to find out more about him.
My problem with the Sam Davis was that the winner was noticeably shortening stride in the final furlong, wich is why the runner-up was able to come back and Hidden Stash closed despite being stuck on his wrong lead. We’ll see what happens the next timr these horses run. I can forgive the winner for tiring off a maiden sprint, but I need to see how he progresses with a two-turn race under his belt.
OK, this is why I was suspicious and held off on him. Blasi said they ran him vs. La-breds because he is too slow and just a moderate horse who wont like open company. He will run all day, just too slow to handle good horses.
Thanks Steve, I was wondering about the restriction to La breds with regard to Unanimously. Somewhat strange that WinStar still have him in their stable unless a stallion prospect sale overseas is in the pipeline for later on.
Yes, agree, the Sam F. Davis does lack some conviction, which you have identified above, but I’m optimistic for the top three’s next advance. The Withers just didn’t grab me visually but that could be my blind spot. Makes life interesting though.
It is strange WinStar would have a La-bred in the first place, but he sure isnt bred like a La.-bred. I hope the Davis turns out be a good race. I just need to see more from all these horses.
Historically, the Tampa Bay Derby has been a ‘reversal of fortune’ for the winner of the Sam F. Davis, due to a variety of reasons, so it’ll be interesting to see how things progress.
Part of the fun.
Thanks Steve for another brilliant analysis of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby.
I agree with you 100% with your number one selection: Greatest Honour. No one other than you mentions why he is a serious contender. Shug McGoughy only goes down the road to the Triple Crown when he has a horse who is capable of winning the Derby. Shug doesn’t seek the glory of a horse merely running in the Derby; he only goes there if the horse takes him there.
I am totally in love with Greatest Honour. And somehow Shug gets a horse like GH and Orb love Gulfstream Park. All of his horses are housed and trained at Payson Park. I wonder how the track surface at Payson compares to Gulfstream.
And I admit I am a big Shug fan; I am always am cheering for the horses he trains to win. He’s first class with first class owners and horses. Both he and Claiborne Farm do things right.
Payson Park is much slower than Gulfstream. You never see horses working fast there. But it gives them a good foundation, which is why old school trainers like Shug and Mott train there.
Steve, have you seen Payson Park since Peter Brant starting renovating the facility?
No, havent been there in years.
Yes, wasn’t it thrilling when Greatest Honour saddled up to his rivals on the corner then exploded past them.
February is when the rubber hits the road on the Derby Trail. So interesting to read a variety of assessments on the horses and their prep races, Steve, from both you and all the other commenters. Some horses are bound to fail (most Derby Trail horses end up either as modest stakes winners or allowance horses, or drop to the claiming ranks), others excel, which is what the trail is all about. “Glory” is an overused word, but one horse will earn it.
Steve, your analysis adds immensely to my enjoyment of the Derby trail. After years of following the Derby, I still can’t adequately evaluate the physical performance of a prospect. I’m just a past-performance handicapper. So I rely on your commentary, plus the contributions of your knowledgeable followers.
An interesting, if not useful, fact about the contemporary Derby is that since 2000, but not including 2020’s extended season, not one Derby winner won a traditional (or official) Derby prep in January*.
Only three Derby winners won major Derby preps in February*: Orb in the 2/23/13 Fountain of Youth, I’ll Have Another in the 2/4/12 RB Lewis, and Barbaro in the 2/4/06 Holy Bull. So the vast majority of Derby winners this century didn’t win a major stakes race until March or April.
[*Note: Nyquist won the 7f San Vicente on 2/15/16; California Chrome won the state-bred Cal Cup Derby on 1/25/14; Smarty Jones won the ungraded Count Fleet on 1/3/04 and the ungraded Southwest on 2/28/04.]
I find that I need to remind myself of that bit of not so trivial trivia quite often, because I’m inclined to overemphasize the Derby chances of early 3yo winners when the truly important races are in March and April. My only future wagers are on Greatest Honour and Mandaloun, both around 40-1. GH won a big one last month, but I’d be happy with just a solid run from Mandaloun on Saturday.
Thanks very much, Eddie. And remember, there arnt many traditional January preps left bcause in the past the January and February Drby preps were manly sprints like the Bahamas, Bay Shore, San Vicente. and Los Feliz, as there were only three major tracks with Derby preps then — Aqueduct, Hialeah, and Santa Anita. Then Gulfstream and Keeneland opened later on. Even Gulfstream started with a sprint, the Hutcheson Stakes. Oaklawn and Fair Grounds were minor tracks and the La. Derby and Arkansas Derby were second tier preps. They never produced Derby winners. Now its all different because trainers are content with 2 preps so they wait for March and April for the big points.
Yes, times have changed. But the Derby is still the Derby. (You can use those words of wisdom and you don’t need to give me credit.) 🙂
I miss these lists………….!
I know Unbridled Honor only got a 65 BSF (which I don’t understand how it was 14 points lower than the Suncoast filly stakes despite it being just a tick slower), but I like him as well. I think he may be a horse for later on, but I loved the agility he showed as well as that burst of speed at the end.
I believe Carillo is out of a Bernardini mare. Bernie, whom I adore, is a phenomenal broodmare sire..
Proxy is a 3/4 brother to the very talented Micheline……
When you have a close finish between several horses you are alwlays going to get a low Beyer, which does not take into account bad trips.
Hi Steve……thank you ! I knew that final time was their thing, that they don’t take trips into account. The Suncoast had much faster fractions, so maybe that was it. I didn’t care so much about the BSF, but I am glad to know about the discrepancy – thanks again!
I thought Greatest Honor looked very good….he sure is bred to thrive at longer distances.
Thanks for the excellent information about Proxy. If the son of Tapit is growing at better rate than the other hopefuls and on top of that he is becoming more professional then he will be a force to reckon with in the upcoming preps.
It is also very commendable the way you put your self in the shoes of the trainers to chart the best options for their horses. Strategies are of utmost importance if the first objective is to get the qualifying points.
Happy to see Jackie’s Warrior making the ranking. I am quite convinced that he will be turning the tables on Essential Quality in the Southwest Stakes… from there on it is in the hands of Asmussen to make him a worthy Derby horse…
The comments about Carillo really resonate with me. Bernardini, Unbridled, Alydar in his maternal side bring up a lot of neon lights in my head…!
I am kind of lost in telling the real meaning of the slower times at Santa Anita and Aqueduct. That is when the visual scrutiny of the winners there is advantageous … the first reaction is to underestimate horses running on tiring tracks. The bright side is that they might be getting an edge in building fitness.
In those cases your analysis is very much appreciated.
This week will be as exciting as revealing.
I put myself in the traner’s shoes just to add some fun to it and because many times you ask a trainer and they will change ther mind. And they can make mistakes in where they run a horse, so Im not telling then where they should run, but where I would run based on over 50 years of experience and following Derby horses.
Jackies Warrior should have a pace and speed advantage if he handles the two turns. So far he’s been spectacular around one turn.
The tracks are slower out of fear, epecially Santa Anita which as to focus on safety before times. I try not to pay much attention to times unless they are out of whack with other times on the same card.
Thank for your reply Steve.
Santa Anita is home to some real nice three year olds this year…some years there arent many from out here–this year I think the preps like San Felipe and SA Derby—are going to be tough heats….
Yes Matthew … California can be thought of having more quality than quantity.
I remember a bunch of maiden 3-year old from Californian base making noise in past trails…
“I am quite convinced that he will be turning the tables on Essential Quality in the Southwest Stakes…”
Given JW’s high cruising speed he should enjoy an uncontested lead. However, if the fractions recorded are not demanding, Essential Quality will likely be in close proximity. In EQ’s debut win over 6F. He raced 7L off the pace before erasing that deficit to get within 1L the leaders with minimal urging. The fractions were 21.48; 45.41; 57.74 . Despite experiencing traffic problems in the stretch he closed to win in e won in 1:09+. This was surprising given the distance was considered short by his connections. When a router can sprint, there is no pace that can it in a position from which it cannot emerge the victor.
Jackie’s Warrior was not only defeated by EQ. As a 2times G1 winner, he finished behind a 94/1 last our MSW winner. and Keepmeimind who closed from another zip code. Really good colts, even those that are stamina, rarely get beaten by a 94/1 last out MSW winner. Class takes over when stamina is in rapid decline.
EQ isn’t a slow colt. When they are as classy as he is, they find ways to win even when at a disadvantage. The outstanding trainer for 2020 with the champion 2YO; advantage Cox.
PROXY:
Despite Steve favorable views, I cannot place the subject colt in a category different from Tacitus. In fact Tacitus appears to cover ground more efficiently. The Tapit colts that are really good are not the grinding types. Proxy appears to be a grinder. He is not the kind of colt that will separate from opponent with authority.
Tacitus average winning margin ahead of the KD was <1L. In Proxy's 2 win against MSW/Allowance company, his average margin of victory is 2 1/4L. He out stayed opponents as opposed to defeating them commandingly. In one win he survived a SE.
With maturity and improvement young horses can change. However, Proxy's running style has been on display in 4 starts. I am of the opinion he one dimensional. He will out last stamina deficient opponents, but doesn't possess the gears to reel in resolute high cruisers and repel serious closers.
Obviously you know how opinions are viewed. And I could just be another of those.
Dream Shake…..passed seven with a wide move and kept going—wasn’t a fast pace he chased, either—you never know where they are going to come from, Dream Shake didn’t cost that much, really…big, dark and Eurton doesn’t get them cranked up—horse might be any kind!
Hi Steve
On February 4th, I posted a comment on Ogden Phipps’ strong class influence on Risk Taking’s tail-female side, mentioning several of the same mares and stallions that you did. It’s good to see you backed that up with your Risk Taking analysis, currently listed at #5. He certainly appears to have a bright future moving forward.
BTW, my pick in the Risen Star is Mandaloun, but the horse I fear most is Senor Buscador.
Many thanks for your weekly Derby Rankings, their a big help moving forward on the Derby trail.
I would like Mandaloun even more if he had a better post. With his running style I just hope he can somehow get a decent trip and not get parked wide on the turn.
Thanks Steve, great read.
#1 selection reminds me of Cigar, not to put any pressure on him.. weakness might be the 1 and 1/4 distance?
#5 selection seems awfully slow
Gary Stevens over the weekend spoke with Bob and he said Concert Tour could very well be his #1. Rosario fits him well and reminds folks of Nadal;
If Life is Good is healthy he is a freak; just don’t know how far he will go but Bob might have a charlatan here or authentic.
Dont see any connection to Cigar, and where is his weakness going a mile and a quarter. Pedigree is a strong point.
#5 may be too slow but time means nothing on that track and I want to see his Thoro-Graph figure. He had been slow and I want to see how much he improved.
Baffert told me Concert Tour was hs best horse three weeks ago. Two weeks ago he said Life is Good was his best, so who knows? Bob doesnt even know
Well, at least he didn’t tell you that Bezos was the best otherwise you’d be really starting to wonder. Lol.
He told me two weeks ago he was overhyped. That was his exact word.
Very interesting. But doesn’t hype generally start from the barn?
Not in this case. Baffert always tries to keep his special horses under wraps. He is extremely superstitious. Word usually comes from the clockers and snowballs once it reaches Vegas.
Great info again, Steve..on baffert horses….
Watching video, I just thought that greatest honor had similar running gait/movement as cigar. Probably wrong but fun to dream about it….
Well, I did notice that you weren’t dropping superlatives when describing the colt.
I look so forward to this every week! Tapir has a strong showing!
Interesting list.
In the KOTD section you mentioned two very interesting first-out maiden winners entered in the Risen Star. I am taking this opportunity to bring to your attention O Besos who is likewise entered in the Risen Star. Below are his three post race summary:
MSW (6 1/2F) Churchill Downs; splits – 22.62; 45.97; 1:11.70; 1:18.80
Off slow and hopped a bit at the start, raced far of the pace in the three path around the turn and rallied through the lane Trailed by as much as 16L and reduced the deficit to 5 1/4L for a 6th place finish. Candy Man Rocket was 13L ahead in said race and finished 4L behind O Besos.
MSW (5 1/2F) – Fairgrounds; splits – 21.66; 45.47; 58.47; 1:04.95
Was off slow, very slow and spotted the front several lengths. Race towards the rear under urging, saved ground on the turn came three wide into the stretch, angled out whilst roused near the three-sixteenth, given one tap of a turned down whip at that point, closed fast on the outside under a hand, cruised to front outside the sixteenth pole then widened under a mild hand ride to win ridden out. Trailed by a much as 12L and won by 5 1/2L.
MSW (62F) – Fair Grounds; splits – 22.49; 46.05; 58.02; 1:10.57
Broke a step slow settled to the rear, went three wide on the turn, then hesitated whilst waiting briefly coming to the three-sixteenth found room shortly thereafter and accelerated quickly, rallied into the final furlong, closed strongly to get the lead into the final sixteenth, then mover clear under a moderate hand ride to win ridden out Trailed by 3 won by 2 1/4L
A colt sired by Orb shouldn’t be spotting the field 12L in a 5 1/2F race and win by 5 1/2L. Further, to win a 6F in 1:10+, literally in hand, isn’t a performance expected from an Orb progeny.
O Besos dam sire is Sotos lost only once in 6 starts. He was a ferocious closer. He closed from 16L off the pace to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He holds the Stakes & Track Record for the 9F West Virginia Derby (1:46:29). This colt is bred to go long with closing pace. He appears to have a lot of class and speed, particularly the closing version.
If he is good enough he has to be considered an upset candidate stretching out.
Third start was an Allowance over 6F and not 62F.
Doug O’Neill is full of compliments for his leggy The Great One….we shall see….pushed fast splits then blew a couple of Bob B’s away….and everything I know about this sport tells me to steer clear of the lite working Senor Buscador on Sat….9 furlongs, sits way behind….big field….most with more recent races…. now—where’s my wallet??!!
I am apprehensive as well but feel committed to keeping him . here until he runs. I dont like him having only the two starts with his running style. He doesnt have to win, but has to show something
He has shown something most Thoroubreds cannot, twice—he has put together half mile rallies, where lessor two year olds would’ve hung in deep stretch—Steve there’s something about Senor Buscador, in a 12 horse field all eyes will be on….him.
Thats why he’s #3. Sounded like you didnt like him.
Oh no I liked him in the Springboard mile, after watching his maiden win….am apprehensive because of the path he’s taking—Remington via Houston and then into a big race—but Senor has my attention!
Not crazy about the path either, but I dont know the horse like Fincher does.
When my family gathers to watch the Triple Crown races, we each pick 5 horses. At this point, I like Greatest Honour, Risk Taking, Roman Centurion, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon. I don’t do logic when it comes to horses, so I count on you Steve to keep me grounded. My choices are a mix of bloodlines, performances, jockeys, and just intuition. And let it be said, I am not very good but I love the heck out of the process.
All five of your horses are solid and have the pedigree. I cant find a fault in any of them.