Derby Rankings: Week 5
Until we get past Saturday’s tantalizing Risen Star Stakes, confusion still reigns over the Derby trail. It is saying a lot about the early state of this year’s trail that the most informative race happened last year. But sit tight for another week. That’s when the fireworks begin. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Feb. 14, 2022 – Week 5
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
“Happy talk, keep talkin’ happy talk.” To those not familiar with the musical South Pacific, I snatched those lyrics because that is exactly what I’ve been trying to do for the past five weeks with Smile Happy, and will for one more week when the landscape of the Derby picture and the Rankings could change dramatically in the Risen Star Stakes. While he is away he has been depending on the horses he defeated handily in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. With Call Me Midnight (seventh) winning the Lecomte Stakes, White Abarrio (third) easily winning the Holy Bull Stakes, and now Classic Causeway (second) scoring an impressive victory over a deep competitive field in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Smile Happy’s vanquished foes continue to build up his reputation. That is the downside of waiting until the first of the 50-point races with an inexperienced and basically unproven colt with only two starts. You have to hope everything goes perfectly and then have to debut against top-quality stakes horses who are more seasoned and are also looking to cash in on those 50 points. . As for Smile Happy himself, he tuned up for Saturday’s stacked Risen Star with a five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5. He does not have to win, but if he doesn’t he better run a darn good race, especially with all the money bet on him in the Future Wager, in which he again closed as the favorite. His Kentucky Jockey Club opponents say he will.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
So, Mo Donegal, who beat him by a nose in the Remsen and who most people believe should have been disqualified, was the 8-1 Future Wager favorite on Saturday morning before moving up to a still low 14-1 following Classic Causeway’s boost of Smile Happy, while Zandon was 44-1 before getting hammered down to 21-1 as bettors looked to cash in on a ridiculously huge overlay. Remember, Zandon, despite the nose defeat, got faster a Thoro-Graph figure than Mo Donegal. Even though he has run big at 1 1/8 miles in only his second career start, he is still short on bottom with only one six-furlong race prior to that and may need this race. Like with Smile Happy, it’s OK if he gets beat, excluding the points factor, as long as he right there with these horses and gets a lot out of the race, because he is going to have to run lights out in his final prep to get back those points. Like with Smile Happy, those are the consequences of having only two career starts at this point and only two late races at 3. I have always felt he is special, and he will have to be. He drew post 7 in the Risen Star, directly outside two speed horses, Epicenter and Pioneer of Medina, which is a great spot, but he has to watch out for Brad Cox’s sprinter Bodock charging up from the outside. He definitely should be sharp enough coming off a half-mile drill in a bullet :48 2/5, fastest of 41 works over the deeper Payson Park surface.
3—Rattle N Roll (Ken McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
All the talk has been about how Classic Causeway’s brilliant victory in the Sam F. Davis boosted Smile Happy, but let’s not forget he did the same for Rattle N Roll, whose inactivity since early October has made him out of sight, out of mind, as reflected in his 19-1 Future Wager odds, down from 30-1 on Saturday. Have people forgotten his explosive move in the Breeder’s Futurity and the way he blew by his opponents, including Classic Causeway, to win by 4 ¼ lengths in a 13-horse field, earning a strong “3 ½” Thoro-Graph number? Yes, he is coming along slower than the others following an injury, but he is up to a half-mile in his breezes and still has plenty of time before the Tampa Bay Derby and then the Blue Grass Stakes. Like with the two ranked above him, I believe he is a huge talent. One or both of the others have a lot at stake next Saturday, while I can still sit on him for a while and remember how great he looked at Keeneland coming off a maiden victory.
4—Messier (Bob Baffert, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
Have you seen the Lin-Manuel Miranda movie Tick…Tick…Boom? Well, that’s pretty much all there is to say about Messier. Like with stablemate Newgrange, we’re going through the Tick…Tick stage right now just waiting for the owners to lower the Boom. We know how talented he is, and we now know his sensational “1” Thoro-Graph number in the Robert. B Lewis Stakes makes him the fastest 3-year-old in the country. We also know he has zero Derby points for his efforts. What we don’t know is what’s going to happen with him. We have a pretty good idea, but it’s the who’s and the where’s that are the big questions. At this point in time his owners can keep him with Baffert and point to the Preakness, possibly with Newgrange, which is not likely to happen, or they can find him another home. Or will Churchill Downs decide to give Baffert back the key to the track? But the longer the owners, who could fill half the Derby starting gate, wait the more difficult it might be to break him and Newgrange in with a new trainer. Remember, many of the top trainers already have Derby horses who they have developed from the beginning. And Baffert still would have a good half-dozen 3-year-olds for the same owners who look like potential Preakness contenders, including Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby winner Blackadder, whose stock definitely is on the rise. So this is a very delicate situation that is nearing a conclusion. Stay tuned. As Al Jolson used to say, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”
5—Newgrange (Bob Baffert, Violence – Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker)
The only thing different I can say about him that hasn’t been said about Messier is that he had his first work back since his Southwest Stakes victory, breezing three-eighths in :37 1/5. Unlike Messier, who can deliver that big knockout punch, he is more the brawler who is content to batter you for 12 rounds. If Peb was still doing his Equine Comedy cartoons in the DRF, he might have Messier and Newgrange in adjacent stalls talking to each other like little kids and wondering if they were they were going to be taken from their home and sent to live with foster parents. If they do find new homes watch all the commotion as they bust down the door to all the Derby rankings and future wagers and raise havoc, maybe with even one or two other stablemates who the owners feel are Derby contenders. What makes these SF, Starlight, Madaket and Company 3-year-olds so intriguing is that they all are bred to easily handle the mile and a quarter.
6—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
If you want to know how impressive he was winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes, ask those who bet him down to 13-1 in the Future Wager from 51-1 last month. Talk about a horse running to his works. Lynch, with a pair of old school distance works — six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 and seven furlongs in 1:26 flat – had him sharp and fit for his debut and he needed to be both with the way the race unfolded. You could tell he was sharp the way he burst out of the gate and quickly went to the front. Unfortunately he hooked up with a fast six-furlong sprinter who got in off the also-eligible list through testing fractions of :22 3/5 and :46 3/5. You could tell he was dead-fit when, after being hounded by that colt all the way to the top of the stretch, he shrugged him off and drew away under three right-handed whips from Irad Ortiz, who then looked back and hand-rode him the rest of the way. Even under a hand ride he came home his final sixteenth in a quick :05 4/5. As competitive as this race looked and with the large field, no one came even close to threatening him in the stretch. Yes, he still has several lengths to make up on Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll, but you can be sure this is a vastly improved horse from last year. And he has plenty of stamina top and bottom.
7—White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
To be honest, I have no idea how good this horse is. I don’t know if he looked that good in the Holy Bull because the race fell apart with none of the leading contenders running remotely close to their best for a variety of reasons. If you go by his Brisnet figures, his 97 speed rating is impressive enough, as are his pace figures of 98-96-95, indicating a horse that can run fast and maintain that same speed the entire race. But his “5” Thoro-Graph number is nothing to get excited about, being only two points faster than the “7” he ran in his well-beaten third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. I have to say from a visual standpoint he does everything like a good horse and came home fast in the Holy Bull. He is a great story, having sold for a paltry $7,500 as a yearling and being by a sire who stood at Spendthrift Farm before being shipped off to South Korea last year despite being a multiple Grade 2-winning son of Tapit. So, is he fast, is he slow, can he get a mile and a quarter, was his Holy Bull victory legitimate? That is something we’re just going to have to wait to find out.
8—Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Edwina E, by Square Eddie)
He is another horse you just can’t get a good grasp of. Is he the horse we saw get beat in a Cal-bred race or the horse who looked Messier in the eye and turned him away despite doing everything wrong. Is he going to cock his head in the stretch and lug in or has he matured and will look more like the powerful moving horse we’ve seen in his last several works who seems a lot more focused, with that smooth low action? Yes, it’s been said a number of times before but we’ll know a lot more about him after Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes. He did draw the far outside post in the field of 10 and with his stalking running style he will have to get a good break to avoid losing ground on the first turn. Look for him to follow the sprinter Bodock breaking just inside him and try to tuck in somewhere. He is another whose stamina might be in question, so it is important he handles the mile and an eighth with no problem and looks like a horse who will continue to stretch out.
9—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Calingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
For a horse who was beaten 4 ½ lengths in the Holy Bull Stakes, he was the 8-1 favorite in the Future Wager on Saturday morning, displacing the vacationing Smile Happy, as the bettors jumped all over his visually impressive final sixteenth, in which he just missed second by a diminishing head, although no threat to the victorious White Abarrio. He drifted back to a more logical 12- before closing at 14-1, but he is still one of the favorites. Because he saved ground most of the way in the Holy Bull, his Thoro-Graph figure was a “5 ¾,” compared to his “6” in the Remsen Stakes. His Brisnet figure followed suit with a 92, down from a 93 in the Remsen. So, going by his speed figures he still needs to improve. In his defense, 1/1 16 miles at Gulfstream is far from ideal, and we’ll see what he does when he returns to 1 1/8 miles and whether Pletcher will keep him in Florida or ship to a different track. Pletcher has had good luck in the Florida Derby, but mainly with faster horses who want to be on or near the lead. His low odds have to be based of the visual aspect of the final sixteenth of the Holy Bull and one foreseeing big improvement in his next race.
10—Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
I am really in a dilemma with this horse, who could be the real goods based on the visual aspect of his two victories or another of those Pletcher whiz kids who look like champions in Florida maiden and allowance races. The bettors have always loved him and he just does everything like a top-class colt, as I mentioned in detail last week. But as one who relies on Thoro-Graph numbers to provide a good gauge on these horses’ patterns and how fast they are, it is difficult to ignore his less than mediocre figures of “8 ¼” and “8 ½,” neither of which puts him in the same ballpark as the stakes horses. In addition, he still has to make his stakes debut and he still has to learn how to win from off the pace, even in a stalking role. He hasn’t beaten anyone of note, but he has never raised a sweat in his two races and his Brisnet speed figure jumped from an 88 to a 96. Even more impressive was his 110 late pace figure, which is the fastest this year, and he did it on the lead the whole way. With Pletcher’s massive army of 3-year-olds he is going to have to find a place to run him, most likely teamed with another member of his troops. So, once again we sit and wait for the fog to clear and we actually can see a clear image of the real Derby contenders.
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11—Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Smitten, by Tapit)
What, another Pletcher horse? This one at least I’ve been high on since day one even though he still hasn’t won a race. Like Rattle N Roll he is up to a half-mile in his works with a :50 3/5 breeze followed by a :49 3/5 breeze. We won’t know until he runs if the slight bone bruising he had last year will have any effect on him, but I am confident he will return in top shape. No matter what you might think of him it takes an exceptional horse to run a strong second to the brilliant Jack Christopher in the Champagne Stakes while still a maiden and in only his second career start. He is not going to dazzle you with his speed or his explosive closing punch, but he will keep coming at you. His Brisnet middle pace figures have been very strong, but he just needs to build on that and come home a little faster. He has shown consistent improvement on Brisnet with figures of 92, 94, and 96. So it’s back to the waiting room and twiddle our thumbs until we actually see some action.
12—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
As expected, he regressed from his monster Thoro-Graph leap from a “14” to a “2 ½” in the Mucho Macho Man with a “5 ½” in the Holy Bull. But that doesn’t bother me in the slightest. A “bounce” could be expected under normal circumstances, but his terrible start and having to alter his running style coming from the back of the pack made this a throwout race, and he got his bounce out of the way. What is important is that he has that “2 ½” to fall back on, and we should see a return to that in his next start. Oddly enough, his owner had mentioned waiting for the Florida Derby, which seemed like too long to wait, and instead he wound up running in the Holy Bull, which didn’t seem long enough. The more logical move would have been going right in between and running him in the Fountain of Youth. But that is behind us, and I am expecting to see another big performance in his next start when hopefully he’ll be able to sit right of the pace. This is still a very dangerous horse.
13—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
I look at his pedigree and I don’t see a speed horse, but it is obvious he has plenty of speed, so now it is time for him to fall back on all that foreign stamina and show he can harness his speed without taking it away from him. I realize he might have to use it again in the Risen Star, but perhaps he won’t have to go as fast as he did in the Lecomte stretching out to a mile and an eighth. I do like that Asmussen, who uses a lot of half-mile works, gave him a five-furlong work and he went in a strong 1:00 2/5. He has no speed inside him in the Risen Star, so he most likely will have to break on top and go to the front, but maybe this time the sprinter Bodock, breaking from post 9, will rush up and give him something to run at. The Risen Star is all about how good the lightly raced invaders are and if he is ready to take the next step forward, having a seasoning and experience edge on them and a race over the track. A victory by him or Pappacap, or perhaps some big longshot, would certainly throw the Derby picture in total disarray.
14—Early Voting (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Amour d’Ete, by Tiznow)
With the absurdly slow time and closing fractions of the Withers Stakes and the absurdly low Beyer speed figure of 78, it was the visual aspect of the race and his performance vs. the clock. I, of course, went with the visuals because that is all I could contribute without relying on numbers. That left only the Thoro-Graph figures to breathe some life into the race and provide a speed rating I could clutch on to. Well, as expected, it was nothing to get you overly excited, but with a solid career debut of “6” and a “5 ¾” in the Withers, it certainly was at least something to clutch on to. By comparison, it was much faster than the highly backed Emmanuel’s “8 ¼” in his second start and equaled Epicenter’s number in his nose defeat in the Lecomte Stakes. And White Abarrio got a “5” the Holy Bull Stake. So I as I did originally, I am going to basically ignore the times and Beyer figure, which could easily improve dramatically in his next start. But with him having already run a mile and an eighth in his second career start, there are only three possible options – run next in the Wood Memorial and go into the Derby off only three career starts, ship out of town and drop back to 1 1/16 miles in the Fountain of Youth or Tampa Derby and get two more starts before the Derby, or go to the Wood and wait for the Preakness, which proved successful for Brown with Cloud Computing. Perhaps it will depend on the success or failure of Zandon.
15—Pappacap (Mark Casse, Gun Runner – Pappascat, by Scat Daddy)
He drew the post 1 in the Risen Star, which could be to his advantage if he can work out the same trip he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, when he eased off the rail in the stretch and closed well to be second behind Corniche. That would be preferable to hugging the rail the whole way and coming up the inside as he did in the Lecomte. Fair Grounds for the most part has favored horses running farther out, as being on the inside has a tendency to get them in trouble. He is on a four-race losing streak and just seems to keep finding ways to get beat. But we know he is a talented, hard-knocking horse. He just needs to work out a perfect trip and then perhaps we’ll find just where he fits on the Derby trail. He had a strong half-mile final work in :48 2/5 so all systems are go to get back on the winning track.
16—In Due Time (Kelly Breen, Not This Time, Sweet Sweet Annie, by Curlin)
Taking a closer look at this horse from a statistical point of view I couldn’t leave him off; he fits the bill in every way, and the previous No. 16, Call Me Midnight, won’t be in action for a long time. First off, at a time when you’re looking for a young horse to start figuring it out and making dramatic improvement, his Thoro-Graph numbers jumped from a pair of “8 ¾s” to a “3.” His Brisnet figures show steady improvement (84-90-94) and his pace figures are very telling. In his three starts, at 5 ½ furlongs, six furlongs, and one mile, his early, middle, and late pace figures have been 90-90-88, then 93-92-92, then 91-93-95. While none of these are monster figures, they are all fast, and more important, consistent, which shows that he can maintain the same high speed throughout the entire race and that he possesses a high cruising speed no matter what the distance and on fast and muddy tracks. Not many inexperienced and unproven horses can take on two highly regarded Pletcher horses and just blow them away, winning off by 5 ¼ lengths. And he did it coming off only one six-furlong race in 5 ½ months. His pedigree shows a good mixture of speed and stamina, which explains his ability to run fast the entire race and not get tired. So let’s sneak him on here, even if it’s just for a week.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Although there were a number of disappointing efforts in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, especially Make it Big and God of Love, you had to be impressed with the performance of the New York-bred stakes winner SHIPSATIONAL, who made a strong rally from eighth, going five-wide on the far turn, and caught VOLCANIC for second in his first start in open company. The son of Midshipman will remain in Florida and point for the Tampa Bay Derby.
As if the Baffert Brigade isn’t loaded enough and the SF Racing, Starlight, Madaket conglomerate doesn’t have enough decisions to make, add BLACKADDER to the party following his victory in the El Camino Real Derby, in which he rallied in the stretch, split horses and just got up to nail the favored MACKINNON. By Quality Road, out of a Pulpit mare, Blackadder not only is bred for dirt, he was coming off a one-mile maiden victory on dirt. The fact he can win on dirt and synthetic makes him a valuable commodity, giving his connections several paths to take with him. It looks at this time he could be pointed for the Preakness. One interesting pedigree note, his third dam is by Sham, and you don’t see him in many pedigrees.
It was a good weekend for New York-breds. In addition to Shipsational, BARESE captured the one-mile Gander Staks at Aqueduct despite bobbling at the start and losing a shoe. Appearing hopelessly beaten when the 4-5 favorite Bold Journey pulled away from him and opened a big lead in the stretch, Barese kept coming, and when Bold Journey began slowing down, Barese made up a ton of ground quickly in the final sixteenth to win by 1 ¼ lengths. That performance encouraged his connections to point for the Wood Memorial.
Before this year, late-developing horses like ZOZOS who have two lifetime starts at this time could always depend going the Rebel – Arkansas Derby route. But now that the Oaklawn 3-year-old stakes have been moved up they don’t have that extra week after the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes to wait for the Arkansas Derby, which will now make it a bit tighter. But assuming he can squeeze in two more races then you have to keep an eye on this Brad Cox-trained son of Munnings, who demolished a decent allowance field at Oaklawn by 10 ½ lengths in his two-turn debut. Yes, Munnings denotes speed, but there is stamina in his female family, especially the tail-end with the third dam being by the stamina-laden Big Spruce, a son of the major stamina influence Herbager.
Things returned to normal for Todd Pletcher in Florida maiden and allowance races, especially when he has two horses in the same race. We saw Shinnecock Hills and Macallan finish noses apart in a Tampa maiden race on January 14. It was pretty much a gimme when he sent out the powerful pair of American Icon and Iron works in a Gulfstream allowance race, but they were shockingly toyed with by 10-1 In Due Time. On Saturday he sent out another strong duo of MACALLAN and AFJAN, and as expected they finished one-two, with Macallan rallying in the stretch after finally changing leads late inside the eighth pole to win comfortably over Afjan, who set it up for his stablemate with a contentious battle on the lead. By Quality Road, Macallan, who has twice displayed a strong closing punch, is from a very strong Claiborne Farm family and should have a bright future.
But Mcaallan and Afjan were just the opening act for what to follow in a one-mile Gulfstream maiden race, in which Pletcher’s Tapit colt CHARGE IT put on quite a show leading every step of the way with Luis Saez never asking him to run and at point in the race. Running straight as the proverbial arrow down the stretch, he coasted to an 8 ½-length victory in a brisk 1:35 2/5. Following an opening quarter in :24 1/5, he simply ran the others off their feet with quarters in :23 1/5 and :23 4/5 and then coming home his final two eighths in :11 4/5 and :12 1/5 all on his own. In his only other start, he was narrowly beaten in a virtual match race with Volcanic, who came back to run a strong third at 8-1 in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes. As so the Pletcher gluttony of runaway victories in maiden and allowance races continues. This is a trainer who has 42 horses nominated to the Triple Crown. This colt was so impressive, and with his star-studded pedigree, he could have been ranked off that performance, but he beat a very questionable field and has a lot of catching up to do, so we’ll see what he does against better competition. But there is no doubt in my mind this is a serious racehorse whose dam is a half-sister to $3.9 million earner Will Take Charge and $1.1 million earner Take Charge Indy, out of $2.4 million earner Take Charge Lady. Like several others he could have gone the Rebel – Arkansas Derby route, but that is no longer possible with Oaklawn’s change of dates and the Rebel only two weeks away.
The Pletcher runaway winners were even seen in New York-bred races, as Calumet’s GOLDEN CODE led all the way to break his maiden by 10 ¾ lengths at Aqueduct and now could be pointed for the Gotham Stakes.
A Russian owned and trained horse in the Derby? The way AZURE COAST closed from the clouds to win the UAE 2,000 Guineas, and with his pedigree, you never know. Purchased for $65,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale by Vladamir Kazakov, the son of Street Sense came from last with an electrifying run, and although he seemed hopelessly out of it turning for home, he shifted to another gear in the stretch and came charging late to win going away by two lengths to remain undefeated. As for his pedigree, his sire won the Kentucky Derby, his broodmare sire Empire Maker won the Belmont Stakes, and his two maternal great-grandsires, Unbridled and A. P. Indy, won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, respectively. It will be interesting to see what happens if he wins the UAE Derby, as he should only keep improving as the distances get longer.
The Johnny Come Latelys keep popping up, and even though it’s likely too late for the Derby, we saw an impressive career debut by WE THE PEOPLE, who won going a mile at Oaklawn by 5 ¾ lengths for Rudy Brisset.
Last week I raved about the performance of MORELLO in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes. This week I will rave about him again. Other than Messier, who is the only 3-year-old to run a Thoro-Graph number under “2?” How did you guess? After running a “7” in his career debut, he leaped to a “1 ¾” in the seven-furlong Jimmy Winkfield, making him a serious contender for the one-mile Gotham Stakes and then the Wood Memorial. By comparison, the one “sprinter” in the Future Wager field, San Vicente Stakes winner Forbidden Kingdom, who was listed at 10-1 on the morning line, and was third choice at 13-1 Saturday morning before drifting up to 16-1, got a “6” Thoro-Graph figure in the San Vicente, not even in the same stratosphere as Morello, who is not even bred to be a sprinter, with stamina sires throughout his pedigree. So I am still keeping a close eye on him and can’t wait to see him stretch out, especially to two turns.
Bob Baffert’s second team, who he seems more likely to hang on to right now, were out for spirited works on February 7. The speedy Del Mar Futurity winner PINEHURST drilled a half in :46 2/5, then worked a bullet five furlongs in :59 1/5; the Nashua Stakes winner ROCKEFELLER went his half in :47 4/5, and the highly regarded DOPPELGANGER went five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 2/5 and then came back only five days later and worked a strong six furlongs in a bullet. 1:12 1/5. That is some second team. And there are several others all for the same owners, including the aforementioned Blackadder.
Looking ahead to the Risen Star Stakes, one horse who might be interesting as an upset possibility or at least used to fill out the exotics is TRAFALGAR, whose fourth-place finish in the Lecomte was better than it looked on paper, as he was moving into contention when he got bottled up in traffic nearing the half-mile pole, was forced to drop back a bit, and then was stuck in traffic again turning for home. He finally got clear but was no match for the top three. He certainly could improve off that effort with a better trip.
Also looking ahead to the Rebel Stakes, Bob Baffert still hasn’t named a starter, but he definitely will have something in the race he has owned the last decade. Southwest Stakes runner-up BARBER ROAD will return in the Rebel and be reunited with jockey Reylu Gutierrez. Others pointing the race are CHASING TIME, BEN DIESEL, and DASH ATTACK.
TOP 10: Smile Happy, Epicenter, Classic Causeway, Zandon, White Abarrio, Simplification, Mo Donegal, Rattle N Roll, Early Voting, Chasing Time
Messier & Newgrange, if transferred, will make it a TOP 12.
Zandon ahead of Smile Happy
Snow and rain has suddenly entered the Saturday forecast at Oaklawn. That could be Newgrange’s undoing.
Just to be clear on one issue: the 90-day suspension was not a “reduction”. The Kentucky commission had not ruled on disqualification and penalties until today. The 2-year ban by Churchill Downs is a separate issue.
Agreed!
I just checked my betting account. The KDFW payout on Mandaloun hasn’t been deposited. I’ll wait until tomorrow to contact them.
😉
🙁
I hope my fine local OTB establishment doesn’t come calling for a $$ return on the exacta I cashed….:)
Eleven horses entered for The Rebel at Oaklawn on Saturday with Newgrange as the likely favorite. Twelve races on the card. Three pick-5s & three pick-4s. Eight of the twelve races with 10 or more horses. The Honeybee which drew Lukas’ Secret Oath only drew six Fillies and will be run as the 5th race on the card.
Leading rider Ricardo Santana has mounts in all 12 races including Texas Red Hot for trainer Randy Morse in The Rebel. Interestingly, Santana is not riding a single horse for Steve Asmussen on the card. Leading trainer(by wins) Asmussen lures Tyler Gaffalione in from Gulfstream to ride Chasing Time in The Rebel. In fact, Gaffalione rides 9 horses for Asmussen on Saturday among his 10 mounts. I guess Joel Rosario will be in Saudi Arabia to ride Midnight Bourbon in the big money Saudi Cup.
Medina Spirit fended off Hot Rod Charlie in the Lewis …fended off Mandaloun in the Derby…..fended off the Eclipse winner in the Classic…..no record of his Derby…no sire record/not in any pedigrees….after we’re gone he’ll be forgotten.
I thought Dancer’s Image’s disqualification was wrong on so many levels. The heart wanted Medina Spirit to keep his Kentucky Derby but the mind knew otherwise. Just plain sad and not just for the poor colt.
Icarus complex, is the only explanation.
Amen to what you both said, Matthew and Davids. Another beautiful black horse lost to history.
MatthewW, when I read the announcement yesterday I was deeply saddened and in tears.
Reading your comment brought on more tears.
My tears are not for Baffert. He will be fine. He is very wealthy and no doubt will survive this and condition more champion horses.
One comment I read yesterday (on FB) touched me deeply.
Paraphrased –
“Gail Rice, who bred Medina Spirit and sold him for a $1000 because she needed the money, is the person in all this that I feel for. Medina Spirit is gone, now his victory in the Derby is being erased in the record books. Her heart must be breaking.”
Why is it that these horses have to pay the price for the follies and mistakes of their trainers? All this little horse did was walk onto that track and do what he was bred to do, what was in his heart to do and that was to race.
Just a sad day for Horse Racing, and Bob has caused this dishonor of such a gallant horse, and he needs to own this.
BREAKING: Medina Spirit is DQ’d from 2021 Kentucky Derby
I just heard on TVG that Medina Spirit has been officially DQ’d as The Derby Winner. Also, BB’s suspension and fine have been changed.
Apparently, BB’s suspension is being cut to only 90 days beginning in March. Which means that he and horses trained by him will not be allowed to enter the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
I saw nothing in the DRF story to indicate Churchill Downs was lifting its 2 year ban, either. Will there be any clarification on that point?
And does the 90 day ban ONLY apply to Kentucky tracks, or all jurisdictions?
All state authorities, once the appeal process has ended, should honor the Kentucky ruling on a 90-day suspension. The ban imposed by CD is a separate issue.
Got it, Eddie. May be a point of negotiation for BB and his lawyers going forward. Or said some wit on the comments section on HRN, where I went to get more info.
No chance! He would sue a ham sandwich.
HRN must be a complete s**t show right now.
For sure, lol.
It is.
Hopefully, Steve Haskin will clear all of this up for us when he posts his new rankings tonight or tomorrow.
Way off topic. Did anyone see the mess in the 9th race at Santa Anita yesterday when 3 jockeys, including World-Class rider Flavien Prat, refused to ride calling the turf course unsafe? DVD said that the turf was unsafe for horse and rider. Two of the three horses had to be scratched because they were unable to find replacement riders. The jockeys said that the turf course was “slippery”. Huh? No rain. I remember seeing a race on Friday or Saturday where a horse turned into the stretch and lost his footing. The jockey gathered himself and finished the race. The jockeys said that this had been going on all weekend. Players of multi-race wagers were switched to the post time favorite who ran 4th. The “elephant in the room” was that there was a massive pick-6 pool pending the outcome of that 9th race.
I never liked that rule of assigning a player “the post time favorite” to replace a scratched horse. A player could have been specifically playing against that post time favorite. Players that used multiple horses in that race could have been stuck with the post time favorite 3 times. I don’t know a better solution. Maybe a consolation payoff to players that had a scratch. IDK. But, if 3 riders are refusing to ride and can point out a specific problem, why not take that race off the turf? Obviously, that big mandatory pick-6 pool factored in track management’s decision. No matter what they did, people would have been unhappy.
This is just an observation from a weather standpoint but there’s been offshore (Santa Ana’s) conditions for the last 60 days here in SoCal. We had a brief thunderstorm roll through on the 15th but that’s it. Not even a hint of marine layer during this stretch.
That’s all Santa Anita needs, they already cannot fill dirt races, they do much better with turf but weather has been weird this winter, lots of dry windy days.
Did anyone catch the first race at Tampa on Saturday (7f alw)? Belgrade (by Hard Spun) was a heavy favorite after a debut win at 6f at FG in December. He won by only a head but was impressive the way he did it. I expect to see him in a Derby prep next month.
You’re right EddieF, Bloodhorse reported yesterday that Graham Motion’s planning on bringing Belgrade back for the Tampa Bay Derby on March 19.
A noble keeper of horses!
Excellent!
Thanks!
It’s too late but Mandella has a very nice three year old NON-STARTER, Devil Moon, I think is the name….should be debuting soon.
I’ve been waiting for this colt, he’s a full brother to Magnum Moon who was outstanding but tragically had to be euthanized due to laminitis. He’s in the best of hands with Richard Mandella.
DEVIL MOON – Entered 2/25 Santa Anita 8th
Thanks for that, Mark. Let’s hope he runs well.
KD late runners list 2022——-
strike hard
Golden Glider
Gilded Age
The results of the Risen Star popped up in my FB notifications last evening (I am currently in several horse racing fan groups). Even though I am taking a hiatus from horse racing, I wanted to comment on Epicenter’s win.
I had mentioned previously that I was very high on this colt.
For me, he checks all the boxes. His pedigree…being by Not This Time (Giant Causeway) and out of a Candy Ride mare is proving to be a good bloodline cross. I think he is a good looking colt from the photos I have seen of him.; balanced, nice hip and shoulder. His connections, Winchell Thoroughbreds and Steve Assmussen have a lengthy and successful partnership; (Midnight Bourbon, currently in Dubai for WC as an example).
I did watch the race replay a few minutes ago and he was running effortlessly and appeared to be under a hand ride by Joel most of the way.
No way of knowing if Epicenter will win the Derby of course but in my opinion, he has all the elements to win.
If I was still keeping a list, Epicenter would be number one on it.
Congratulations to Epicenter and his connections and best of luck and safe racing.
It’s tough to stay away from the game, eh Lynda? 🙂
Epicenter indeed had it all his way in the Risen Star. But there are several quality early-speed types that will be waiting for him in his final prep and in the Derby. All in all, three of the Big 5 in the RS acquitted themselves quite well.
EddieF, as I said, only came back to comment on Epicenter with an explanation as to why I was high on this colt.
If anything my resolve to no longer follow American Thoroughbred racing is stronger than when I posted below.
A trainer named Juan Carlos Vazquez has been granted a stay after appealing a 30-day suspension by the Pennsylvania State Horse Racing Commission. This person has had numerous drug and doping violations that include giving a filly meth.
What person in their right mind would ever give a horse meth?
The creep is claiming cross contamination as his defense.
Due process. Just a matter of time before he pays the piper. Not familiar with Vazquez and meth, but another trainer was recently suspended in Pennsylvania for a meth violation.
Lynda, perhaps a ‘sea change’ is beaconing you to cross the Atlantic and begin following European racing. You may find the environment there more satisfying. The Racing Post, The Owner Breeder, Thoroughbred Racing Commentary, Sporting Life, and Timeform UK (original) are websites that will keep you up to speed. A change is as good as a holding. Enjoy.
Davids, thank you. I agree a change of scenery is a good thing! I have been following racing (though not closely) across the pond since California Chrome went there to train up for the Royal Ascot.
Wise Dan turned me on to turf racing in the US back in 2011. Turf in the US is vastly different from England though.
Way back in my family tree (Colonial America) one of my ancestors raised and raced Thoroughbreds. He lived on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. So I guess you could say that horse racing is in my DNA?
Right now I am following the Dubai World Cup Carnival.
See also that Her Majesty The Queen’s horse, Kincardine, won a race today. I am sure that lifted her spirits as she deals with Covid. Kincardine goes back to Sham (dam line).
Thank you too for the links to European racing.
Maybe someday soon American Horse Racing will get their act together!
.
Lynda, in case you haven’t read it, you may find a series the Thorughbred Daily News website made on Queen Elizabeth II called “Seventy Glorious Years,” very informative on many levels. There are three parts on three separate days: February 5, 6, 7 editions.
You can’t imagine UK racing without the Queen. Hopefully, she makes a speedy recovery.
Glad you commented even if it’s just this once, Lynda! I so enjoy your comments and knowledge of the sport.
I have to agree: I am very much going to miss your insightful comments, Lynda. In the past several years I have been questioning my support of both college and professional football as well as thoroughbred racing, for similar reasons. It is very difficult to get past the fundamental problems and enjoy the sports: like almost everything today, they are corrupted…
biggy312, thank you!
Thank you for the kind words.
Everyone says to toss the Los Al race, OK…..or toss the Risen Star, where a horse from Cali flies to Nashville, then 6 hr van ride, which is a long journey….
Are you saying that they should still consider pointing to The Kentucky Derby at a mile and a quarter off his run in The Risen Star?
Not saying that….saying everyone thinks the horse’s real race was at Fairgrounds, and tossing the Los Al race….like so many who are dropping Smile Happy and Zandon, for getting beat in Feb…..every time a horse runs is like the end all—-horse looks great in February, there are 11 weeks till Derby.
Steve wrote this about #1 Smile Happy in regard to today’s race: “He does not have to win, but if he doesn’t he better run a darn good race.” Did Smile Happy run a darn good race? I think he did. A rallying second just 2 3/4 lengths behind the winner is an impressive performance considering how things went up front in the early going. While Epicenter established moderate fractions, SH was 4 lengths back at the 1/2, 4.5 lengths back at 3/4, and 4.5 lengths back at 1m. He ran the final quarter in 36 1/5 and the final furlong in 12 1/5.
Also to be considered is that Smile Happy had not raced for 12 weeks. Since the Risen Star became a G2 in 2010, only Gun Runner was victorious with a layoff of more than 6 weeks.
However, Smile Happy needs to show in his final prep that he can be closer to the leader (or BE the leader) at the stretch call. A performance of that type is as strong an indicator of Derby success as any other. With so many early speed types still in the picture, Smile Happy should stay at #1.
Perfect prep race…Zandon too…..you want to be finishing, you want to peak first Sat in May…..
I hope for both their sakes that the long run of undefeated (at 3) Derby winners ended for good with Medina Spirit. 🙂
The Triple Crown has only been notable for around 80 years…statistics like “undefeated” at three before the Derby—-just do not have enough umph! Heck, SECRETARIAT was nearly four lengths back of the Wood Memorial winner, before he ran the greatest Triple Crown ever.
Matthew, the long run I referred to was 2012-2019, which includes the 1st-place finisher in ’19 (but not the Sept Derby in ’20). They were all undefeated in their 3yo preps, either in two preps or three. I think this trend is/was the result of fewer races and the need to have your horse ready for every race!
…and I think that 8 year sample is a coincidence…
In one of my many posts regarding Smile Happy. You might recall I indicted that he was likely to be a false favorite in his 3ytO debut. Obviously, my assertion was made long before 3 of the opponents he defeated in the KJC Stakes won graded stakes.
I made my assertion on the basis that he was the only one in both his wins that closed from off the pace. In addition, the late race leaders in his 2 wins had nothing left to repel his challenge. With such a running style Smile Happy was always likely to be vulnerable to classy high cruiser who can accelerate out of their cruise and hold their gallops to the line.
Further, how would Smile Happy cope with other top-class closers with comparable ability? It appears if Zandon didn’t experience a poor star, he would have finished 2nd.
“Also to be considered is that Smile Happy had not raced for 12 weeks.”
The truly exceptional ones can overcome all types of adversities. A mere 12 week between start isn’t considered a major deterrent to winning. Maxfield was off for 7 months and returned to win the G3 Matt Winn finishing in hand.
“A rallying second just 2 3/4 lengths behind the winner is an impressive performance”
I am of the opinion you are being a bit generous with the interpretation of the margin above. The winner’s rider was looking through his legs for the competition and wrapped up his mount long before the line. The margin could have been much larger.
“He does not have to win, but if he doesn’t, he better run a darn good race.”
Smile Happy ran well. But what is abundantly clear is the fact that he appears to be a cut below the winner. at this stage. He has never been a fast colt despite his pedigree. He will have trouble with both closers with his ability and high cruisers who can kick and hold to the line.
Obviously, my assessment could be total nonsense. But for whatever its worth, it’s a response.
Don’t tell me that you said SH was a false favorite in the Risen Star. You should know that I shared that view. And in regard to the layoff, I wrote about that, too. Are you ignoring the way SH came home in the Risen Star?…and my comments about what he needs to do in his final prep to be considered a legitimate threat? Perhaps one thing you are correct about is that I may be a bit generous about SH’s effort. But that cannot be determined at this time, only guessed at.
This is not written in expectation of a reply.
Prelim Beyer for Epicenter is 98 according to drf write up. Big number follows those strong splits he posted.
Your Pioneer of Medina ran a good race after pressuring Epicenter. He just missed finishing third.
Yes he did, Eddie! Finished fourth, which is my usual luck. Who do you like in the Rebel?
You don’t really want to know. I had Pappacap in the Risen Star. LOL. But I’ll be back in the saddle soon after the Rebel PPs are out.
I wouldn’t give up on Smile Happy or even Zandon. It looked to me like Zandon might have needed the race. Both horses should show better next time. I look forward to reading Steve’s opinion along with everyone else’s. Then we can turn the page and move on. Next Saturday it’s another 50-pointer. The Rebel at Oaklawn.
Smile Happy is still my No. 1 for the Derby. Epicenter is a very nice horse and his speed must be respected, though we’ll see how he performs when tested early by a top horse (or horses). Zandon passed Smile Happy on the far turn but was outfinished by SH. I was hoping for a more exciting finish considering the quality of the field.
There will be a new #1 in the rankings. Saw a lot of up and down by both Smile and Zandon. Messier is the fastest and most accomplished and will be the #1 in many rankings. How many Derbies has Brown and Mcpeek have accomplished? Zero
It’s one thing to question an inexperienced trainer in the Derby, but a Brown or McPeek? C’mon man!
He’s a one trick pony!
What’s wrong with you?
Reality check; Brown is a great turf trainer but ordinary on dirt: Mcpeek well he wouldn’t be my first string trainer. Just saying—They have won ZERO derbies that’s the hard truth. They don’t know WTH is going on for Derby preparation.
So? Perhaps u can advise Mcpeek and Brown!
Easily, change whatever your doing! It doesn’t work, change? Baffert should have #1 and #2 ranked horse. He has such a deep string that during workouts it’s iron sharpening iron regime
We have diff. views.
2 1/2 months out…..nothing wrong with either horse’s run yesterday Feb 19 FIRST run of the year!
Exactly, expect both to run much better in next prep and peak on Derby day, when we will see if that effort is enough to beat all the other potentially peaking 3 year olds!
Exactly!
Yes, both Zandon and Smile Happy ran well all things considered. Hopefully, they manage to run separate paths in their next races. The winner won’t be waltzing along unchallenged anymore in his next race either. The future seems more positive for the former two than the latter.
I am pretty sure that Steve will keep Smile Happy and Zandon as his top two contenders… Epicenter benefited from the lack of the early pressure he felt in the LeComte. Smile Happy and Zandon did very well in their 3-year-old debut and will be better next time.
BTW our darling Pappacap looks like he is the first casualty of the Derby trail…she just stopped trying after the 6 furlong-mark… the BC Juvenile is not holding rank so far (with Giant Game and Pappacap out of contention now).
The Rebel Stakes next Saturday will tell more about Newgrange’s hegemony over Chasing Time, Barber Road, Ben Diesel , Dash Attack, and the intriguing Ethereal Road.
With 15 more prep Stakes remaining this are my top 10 horses to enter the Derby:
1. Messier
2. Smile Happy
3. Zandon
4. Rattle N Roll
5. Classic Causeway
6. Newgrange
7. Charge It
8. Simplification
9. Epicenter
10. Early Voting
See you in two weeks… au revoir… Adios!
Hey Nelson, that’s a nice top 10 contender list.
For what it’s worth, as it stands now, these are my top 10:
1. Simplification, worked a bullet 5F, in 58.62, 1/42, at GP (today, 2-19). Next start, FOY (probable)
2. Epicenter, 1st in the Risen Star. Next start: Louisiana Derby.
3. Rattle N Roll, worked 5F, in 59.65, 3/42, at GP (today, 2-19). Next start, Tampa Bay Dery (probable)
4. Classic Causeway, 1st in the Sam Davis, in an excellent time of 1:42.80 for 8.5 furlongs. Next start, Tampa Bay Derby?
5. Smile Happy, 2nd in the Risen Star (no match for Epicenter). Next start, TBD.
6. Emmanuel, 1st in a 75K AOC, (toyed with the field, to win by 4 1/2). Next start, FOY (probable)
7. Messier, 1st in the Robert B. Lewis by 15 lengths (the class of the field has to be questioned). Next start, TBD
8. Zandon, 3rd in the Risen Star, (broke in the air, at the start), still managed to make a nice close for show. Next start, TBD
9. Newgrange, 1st Southwest (against a competitive field). Next start, Rebel (probable).
10. White Abarrio, 1st in the Holy Bull (rated just off the pace, to draw away). Simplification missed the break.
BTW, I noticed Emmanuel didn’t make your top 10.
I like Charge It’s pedigree a bit more than that of Emmanuel and Mo Donnegal.
From Pletcher’s troop I am also interested in how Major General is coming back… Anyways Emmanuel and White Abarrio complete my top dozen…
Thanks for the reply Nelson, now go rest that right hand. 🙂
In case you didn’t notice I posted you were on,regarding picking winner over weekend.
It would be funny if the Rebel turned out to be a more exciting race than the Risen Star. You just never know!
Charge It at #7. Interesting! Hope you return sooner than 2 weeks.
Congrats Bill Dawson for your total confidence in Epicenter’s speed to win the Risen Star.
I see that Pletcher blew your Superfecta (with Pioneer of Medina in 4th) …
As I said Jokingly I will take a two-week vacation from writing if you won … more because I need to heal the two fingers I dislocated in my right hand on Valentine’s day. That is why I did not participate this week as much …
Anyways, the Rebel next week does not promise big payouts either…!
Keep up your good handicapping!
You dislocated two fingers on Valentine’s Day? I’m not sure I want to know how THAT happened.
LOL… that was precisely what the emergency Doctor said to me when she first attended me…
Thanks, Nelson Maan.
Just to show how Rosario had Epicenter on cruise control, look at the even splits (24:18), (24:28) and (24:31). His final 1/8 was an impressive (12:45) geared down (per the footnotes).
Epicenter should have no problem carry his speed over the classic distance.
BTW, we wouldn’t hold you to that two-week vacation if Epicenter won the Risan Star.
Well he is the first entry in the Derby and very possibly the pacesetter as well…!
Smile Happy and Zandon will be picking a lot of points where ever they run next time.
No problem Bill… I am not enjoying writing with my left hand alone and this damn voice-to-text functionality does not recognize my South American accent… LOL
Kudos to Epicenter in a wire to wire win in the Risen Star. I was very proud of Zandon who charged down the stretch and was able to get up for 3rd and now had 14 valuable KY Derby points. Zandon hopped at the break and started last. Jose Ortiz did not panic and made one run and almost caught FAV Smile Happy for 2nd. Looking forward to Zandon going longer and breaking better in the LA Derby to pick up more points and secure a spot in the KY Derby. I am still confident going forward with Zandon who I bet at 56-1 in KDFW1. Disappointing efforts from Pappacap and Slow Down Andy.
Yes, Zandon’s burst of acceleration, long and sustained, should serve him well further down the track. For a brief moment you almost believed a win was possible. I wonder where Chad Brown is thinking next for Zandon.
Don’t see a garland of roses for these horses in the Risen Star come May 7th…..however kudos to Bill Dawson to predict this and confidentiality at that.
Thanks, John Goggin. Steve had Epicenter at #13, in his Derby Rankings: Week 5. I expect a big move up in Week 6, possibly as high as #1. Epicenter proved he can carry his impressive speed over a distance of ground, in this case, 9 furlongs. What was so impressive, he did it with ease. Now, it’s on to the Louisiana Derby, followed by the Kentucky Derby.
Congratulations to Winchell Thoroughbreds, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario and the entire Epicenter team.
Winner 1:49:02 next two ran fine— Andy was rank early but I thought Mario had him sitting back OK….he wasn’t cruising he wasn’t that relaxed, and he took a hard beat! Winner certainly likes Fairgrounds….
Maybe something happened we couldn’t see, but that was a very perplexing ride from Lanerie. Very happy for Epicenter’s crew, and I am so glad to see these sons and grandsons of Giant’s Causeway represent him so well.
I didn’t see any problem with Lanerie’s ride. Smile Happy isn’t a horse with much early speed. The early pace (47.97 for the half mile) was slow and he came up short. I expect he’ll be fine next time out. My pick in this race, Pappacap, was not up to the task tracking the leaders in third. Slow Down Andy had no excuse.
He just seemed to wait until the minute after the last minute to ask him for his run. Epicenter ran a beautiful race, and I don’t know if Sile Happy could have gotten any closerifhe had started sooner, but my impression was that he just waited too long. But it’s always much easier to ride them from a comfy chair, isn’t it?
So many typos
We won’t need to wait 2 weeks to hear from Bill D. Congrats to Bill and anyone else who had Epicenter. Speed kills!
Thanks.
Zandon is sleek and quiet on the track! Smile Happy on the muscle and Slow Down Andy is all by himself out there, no Coach!
Thanks!
In looking to upset the apple cart I like Pioneer of Medina to hit the trifecta or better. So many horses still have plenty to prove in this race.
His dam, Lights of Medina, lost the G2 Black Eyed Susan by a head at 9f just a few years ago. Good luck, Ms B.
Huh! This luxury hotel in NC does not carry TVG. Will have to depend on the folks here to find out what REALLY happens in the Risen Star.
Meant to say to you Eddie: good luck too!
Thanks! Tough luck on the TV blackout. I’ll be on Pappacap across the board, with a Smile Happy/Pappacap exacta as a saver. What a race!
BY EXTENSION:
If Messier’s performance in the Bob Lewis has propelled him to the top of 3YO male division. By extension, Slow Down Andy who defeated Messier when he was the 1/5 favorite in Los Al Futurity, should run out an easy winner of the Risen Star.
Despite the Slow Down Andy’s defeat of a colt that many have elevated to #1. Steve has him ranked at #8. There is no by extension that can be applied to this ranking.
Call Me Midnight defeated Pappacap, Epicenter and Trafalgar in the LeComte. By extension Smile Happy should have the aforementioned 3 entrants covered and has only to worry about the rest. Despite the exploit of Slow Down Any defeating a graded stakes winner last out and despite Smile Happy having not defeated a graded stakes winner last out. He gets the #1 billing. There is no by extension applicable to this ranking.
Smile Happy was the strongest whilst closing off the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. By extension he should find the 9F of the Risen Star within his scope. This extension should also be applicable to Tawny Port as well.
Since the distance of the Risen Star has been extended to 9F from 81/2F. The winner has not been worse than third shortly after the break. By extension this trend suggests deep, and mid pack closers are at a disadvantage.
No winner of the Risen Star has ever made a start that was not beyond 6F. By extension, Bodock has absolutely no chance of winning, barring a miracle.
The 2020 Risen Star winner Modernist appears to be the only entrant to win having contested a 9F previously. By extension Zandor who contested a 9F at the same location should have an outstanding chance to win.
History is rarely made in the Risen Star. By extension a history making winner is overdue
If Epicenter doesn’t win the Risen Star, I’ll quit posting comments on this blog for 2 weeks. That should make a lot of people happy. I’ll return on March 4th, to make a case for Simplification as the likely winner of the FOY.
If the track plays like it did yesterday and Joel Rosario can get Epicenter to the rail, he could ride inside speed to victory. I don’t see anyone with Epicenter’s kind of speed between him and the rail. Then, we can all look forward to your insightful comments in the coming days.
I had my doubts that Smile Happy would go off at anywhere near his morning line odds of 7-2, but, as I listen to various commentators and browse comments, I’m starting to wonder if Slow Down Andy could go favored.
I was looking at the Timeform Pace Projector and it shows Zandon and Smile Happy bringing up the rear going into the first turn. I consider Zandon an “x-factor” because I find the fractions of The Remsen hard to believe. In the end, I’m torn between Epicenter, Zandon, and Smile Happy. So, I’ll make a modest win & place wager on Zandon because I suspect that he will go off at the bigger odds of the three. Good luck everybody. Enjoy the racing.
I’m expecting Slow Down Eddie leaves the gate 8-1.
Freudian slip? 😉
Thanks, TommyMc. It’s good to know there’s at least one regular on this blog that is not offended by my comments.
Just as a reminder, I’ll key Epicenter on top, with Pappacap, Zandon, Smile Happy and SDA underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots, in my $2.00 superfecta P/W wager. That is: 5/ 1-7-8-10/ 1-7-8-10/ 1-7-8-10
Good luck if you bet the race.
I like that funny self challenge… just for the fun of it … if Epicenter wins I will stop posting comments for the next two weeks…
In any case, see you in two weeks… LOL
See u in 2 weeks.
Guess you called it Bill.
Guess?
I was wrong.
Ok, after diving even deeper, I think Pappacap is the play here. This is what I’m seeing…
* I absolutely loved his Breeders Cup race.
* I think the Lecomte was indeed a leg stretcher because he didn’t show the same early speed (through 1st call) as he did his previous two races. But here’s where it gets interesting, his fractions through the 2nd and 3rd call were fast (I’m estimating here)… looked like he was 5 back at 1st call, then made up 3 lengths on the leader by 2nd call where the leader went 23.6 (hello!), then made up another length on the leader who went the next quarter in 25.1. So he spent all his energy mid race, no wonder he didn’t have anything left in the stretch. I think this was a sneaky good stepping stone off the layoff.
* Then a bunch of smaller positives in his corner… Casse in this circuit, upgrade to Gaffalione, bunch of quality races as a 2yo, son of Gun Runner at the Fair Grounds (that one just makes me smile :), and the cherry on the Sundae… Steve’s comment above in his ranking… “He had a strong half-mile final work in :48 2/5 so all systems are go”
As you can see, I get a kick out of playing detective and piecing together the clues lol.
I am 100% with you there Lil E. Tee.
I wanted to add that losing (two times) to Champion Corniche entitled him to be a top bill and to be the favorite in the LeComte. As you hinted, he seemed to be needing the race (i.e. 3-year-old debut). Gaffalione should be more aggressive with the son of Gun Runner and make him stalk more closer this time.
Now it is the right time to try defeating the early KD favorite.
Good luck and safe ride to everyone this weekend!
“As you hinted, he seemed to be needing the race (i.e. 3-year-old debut)”
One has to question the validity of the subject hint/assertion.
Midnight Bourbon
10/10/2020 – Champagne – Finished 4th
01/16/2021 – Lecomte – Finished 1st (3YO debut)
Days between starts – 98
Pappacap
11/05/2021 – Breeder Cup Juv. – Finished 2nd
01/22/2021 – Lecomte – Finished 3rd (3YO debut)
Days between starts – 58
Which of the above 2 would have more likely needed a race?
Sometimes instead of trying to find excuses for defeats. The reality that a particular entrant was beaten by better opponents on the day should be accepted.
Thanks for the reply Mark A Palmer (AKA Coldfacts).
Cherry picking won’t convince anyone about the substance of your claims. That is precisely my problem with the majority of your counter arguments.
I am not replying with dozens of examples of horses improving from their 3-year-old debut but suffices to take Mandaloun who was defeated not only by Midnight Bourbon but also by Proxy in his 3-year-old debut (in the LeComte). Mandaloun subsequently won the Risen Star over same rivals…
So there you have it: as per usual, you “forgetting” to mention Mandaloun makes your case completely void.
It would greatly help if you could mention the ONE horse you like to win the Risen Star … and spare me anthologies of meaningless “facts”.
As you know, he does not enter into a dialogue. Never. Ever. Not sure what motivates Mark A. Coldfacts, but it certainly doesn’t involve a desire to have a conversation. One post per thread — quoth the raven, Never more!
Yes EddieF… his motivation seems to be to just display his ability for convoluted monologues based on trivial numbers.
In my mind’s eyes his style contributes to a somber atmosphere here… i.e. pretending he is devoid of any emotions or sentiments and owning absolute “objectivity”… and yet he picks horses supported not by logic but by his DESIRES for big payouts… but as they say in the plains of South America, desires alone don’t get any one pregnant… or something of that sort… translations are not that accurate sometimes…but you get the idea…!
We are supposed to have fun when sharing a common passion for horses but I certainly do not enjoy some one insulting my intelligence with silly arguments.
“Convoluted monologues” is a fine description. He’s the Christopher Nolan of Internet commenting, but without the artistry and originality.
Simple Eddie. Agenda-causing drama. Ironic,if a genius as he believes-would know ‘passes’ running low. lmao
SLET, that’s a good argument for Pappacap. I won’t repeat my previous comments in support of Pappacap in the Risen Star, but I’d like to comment on layoffs. In horse racing, layoffs DO matter. Racehorses are rarely at their best after a layoff of, let’s say, two months or longer. You just have to look at their speed/performance figures to see that. When they do win after a layoff, it’s often because they are MUCH the best in the field.
Case in point: Ken McPeek has the consensus Derby favorite and RS morning line favorite Smile Happy. Twenty years ago, almost to the day, McPeek’s Repent was coming off a layoff similar to Smile Happy’s, and Repent had also won the KJC Stakes in his last race. Prior to the KJC, Repent finished a good second in the BCJ. He was a proven and experienced 3-5 favorite in the RS against a relatively weak field. Repent won the RS as expected.
Smile Happy, as well as Zandon and Slow Down Andy, has no such advantage today. I can’t say that I’m overly confident that Pappacap will win. I can make a good case for any of five runners. But I’m pretty sure that Pappacap will be close to his best in this particular race, and at a decent price.
Looking at the dam sire of Smile Happy I believe I found a race record that”ll never be challenged. Pleasant Tap ran in 4 different Breeder Cup races. The Juvenile, Turf, Sprint and Classic. Incredible by today’s level of racing.
I’ve been taking a harder look at Slow Down Andy. We all know what his Sire, Nyquist, accomplished on the track. His Dam, Edwina E, ran twice. At 6 furlongs and 6 1/2 furlongs. Losing both times. The Dam-Sire, Square Eddie, is really interesting. Square Eddie was Bred in Canada. His first 4 races were in England where he won 1 of 4. Paul Reddam brought him to America and he won The Breeders Futurity at Keenland over 1 1/16 miles before finishing 2nd to Midshipman in the 2008 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Square Eddie was among the Winterbook Favorites for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Whatever happened, he dropped off The Derby Trail after The Lexington. Square Eddie had one more “Hurrah” when he won a 6 1/2 furlong Allowance race at Santa Anita in record time(1:13.11). Eddie was versatile. Square Eddie went off to stud in March of 2011 and was Bred to 40 Mares. Eddie was busy. But, Square Eddie wasn’t done. He returned to the races in the Fall of 2011 and never hit the board in three races and not racing beyond 7 1/2 Furlongs. After that he returned to Stud-Duty. Final record: 3 wins in 18 starts. 0 for 2 the two times that he tried 1 1/8 miles. Never hit the board in either of those tries. My point is, #1-Square Eddie is an interesting horse, and #2- is Slow Down Andy beginning to reach the outer limits of his Pedigree? Horses outrun their pedigrees all the time, but, even if Slow Down Andy passes this 1 1/8 mile test on Saturday, it will be hard for me seeing him winning America’s most famous race on May 7th.
“Horses outrun their pedigrees all the time”
I have asserted the above on many occasions. But as with many assertions, when revisited. It is likely to be discovered that some are misguided, and their disclosures should be avoided.
A horse is 50% of its sire and dam. Is that where its pedigree begins and ends? Both sire and dam with their respective pedigree combined to produce a foal. That foal’s pedigree encompasses the pedigrees of its sire and dam.
The generational line goes on and on. Given the mystery of genetics I consider it inappropriate to assert that horses out run their pedigrees. Their performances on the track can certainly supersede that of sire and dam. But that doesn’t constitute an out running of a pedigree which spans several generations.
Obviously make take on whether or not a horse can out run its pedigree might amount to total nonsense. But I am sharing it anyway.
Knicks Go did in Breeders Classic. lmao
Steve Haskin-
In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, I like Zandon, who has a lot of upside to improve off his two-year-old form. Expect Zandon to either stalk or race in midpack.
Projecting an average, moderate early pace. The consensus likes Smile Happy and his odds might drop as low as 2-1, or possibly 8-5.
On the undercard, three-quarter brothers Gunfighter (Race 8) and Major Fed (Race 11), both sired by Ghostzapper with Smart Strike as their maternal grandsire, race on different surfaces. Gunfighter races on dirt and must beat his stablemate, Cyberknife, among others to continue on the Derby Trail.
Major Fed races on grass for the first time and I think he will enjoy the surface switch. However, he faces serious competition with T. Pletcher, C. Brown, and B. Walsh horses entered. Major Fed’s odds should hold at 12-1 or
drift even higher.
Hope you are enjoying watching the Winter Olympics from Bejing. Horse racing from the Fair Grounds should be competitive and exciting with large fields and good weather this weekend.
Good luck with your bets and thanks for posting comments for Derby Rankings Week 5.
7.5 Furlongs
Are the Olympics still going? I haven’t heard a thing about them.
It’s interesting to see posts regarding issues relating HISA and the Jockey Club not deleted. But a post regarding the recent meeting with CD stewards and the Bob Baffert’s perceived negligence rejected.
Are posts regarding the Bob Baffert issue off limit?
If so. Why are horses under his keep and care included in the top 16? Isn’t this act inducing comments on the Bob Baffert issue?
Steve,
Having been a supporter of your work for years. I think I can state without reservation that you are a big fan of both Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher. Two trainers whose services I would under no circumstance retain. The high regard in which both are held, appears to have impacted your objectivity as it relates to the respective dark side of their operations.
You are angered by any mention of this subject. Your position is no evidence has been presented to support certain claims.
And I must concede you have been correct in all cases in which you have delete posts with such claims. However, it is unreasonable for you to expect the provision of hard evidence.
Circumstantial evidence is just as damaging as hard evidence. The is a preponderance of circumstantial evidence on wide display for all to see regarding certain trainers. But the close-knit trainer’s community has its own blue wall of silence.
I am a horse lover first and foremost. I keep record that highlight patterns, practices and trends. Many are focussed on impressive performance and the numbers the Sheets will reveal. Far too often what these majestic animals are subjected to in order to deliver such performance leaves them damage for the remainder of their natural lives. Sadly, the Breeding Industry is always readily available to accept and receive the damaged good.
I admire you and your work. But I will never allow my admiration to not allow me critical of you when I am of the opinion you are deviating from your core principles and high standard. You are not a fly by night writer who is a victim of blind love. You are king of the heap. Your overwhelming admiration of these two trainers, particularly Bob Baffert runs contrary to the brilliant mind you possess.
It has nothing to do with admiration. I am no fan of Pletcher’s, but have respect for him. My issue with you and Baffert is your constant diatribes about him and his nefarious activities. You dont know when to quit. Bloodhorse deleted anything with his name in it because it was getting out of hand. Your obsession with Baffert has been going on for a long time. And this column has no interest in your circumstantial evidence. Criticize him as a trainer if you wish, but if you want to harp on his indiscretions the other website will be more than happy to accommodate you. Your comments on the Derby horses and your critiques are always welcome.
Mr. Haskin, response was for above. Error!
Do u ever learn?
Last chance
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE NEXT TWO DERBY RANKINGS LIKELY WILL BE POSTED EITHER LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THANKS.
Steve, you may need three days to unpack the results of tomorrow’s big race. 🙂
Or three minutes. I will be around here on a limited basis over the next few days.
Just finished handicapping the Risen Star. Initially, after only watching last race videos, I was leaning Slow Down Andy. But after looking at the pp’s and considering everything, I think this race comes down to Zandon and Pappacap. I think Zandon is the safer play, my only question is will he be a little short first out off the layoff. My question with Pappacap is was his last a leg stretcher off the layoff or is he not improved at 3. If it was a leg stretcher and he needed that last, I think he can beat Zandon in this race. Good luck to everyone.
Interesting conclusions.
ZANDON – Both your video and PP reviews should reflect that Zandon was defeated by Mo Donegal in the Remsen. Mo Donegal was easily beaten by White Abarrio in the Holy Bull. White Abarrio finished 3rd to Smile Happy in the Kentucky jockey Club Stakes. Extrapolation from this bit of information would suggest Smile Happy has Zadon covered.
PAPPACAP – This colt has n=been defeated in its last 4 starts. It has failed to win any of its 8 1/2F races. It will now have to negotiate the 9F of the Risen Star against its last victor. In addition to new shooters several of whom are last out winners a sopposed to last put 4 time looser.
EDIT – Due to computer related issues that caused premature submission
PAPPACAP – This colt has been defeated in its last 4 starts. It has failed to win any of its 8 1/2F races. It will now have to navigate the 9F of the Risen Star against its last victor. In addition, hw will be facing new shooters, several of whom are last out winners a opposed to last out 4 times looser.
Given the available cold facts. Neither of these entrants should emerge the winner. But it ahorse race that involves young developing horses who can improve literally overnight. No handicapping angle should be dismissed in a sport of glorious uncertainties.
So regarding Smile Happy > Zandon, I don’t like the two week gap in training for SH.
And regarding Pappacap’s losses, let’s say he need the last off the layoff. The two losses before that he ran second to Corniche at 15-1, which is respectable imo. I especially liked his BC effort. And he’s been running in tough races as a 2yo.
Like Zandon for win.
Hey, Lil. I picked Pappacap yesterday as my wagering selection due in large part to the observation that nobody else was picking him. LOL. The Risen Star is the rare stakes race where I can’t come up with the MOST likely winner. Any of five horses has a decent chance of winning. Last night you asked about the gap in Smile Happy’s workouts. Under an earlier Derby Rankings column, there was discussion about Dash Attack and his workout gap. AFTER the defeat in the Southwest, McPeek said that DA may have been short because of the lighter work schedule. So he goes out and does it again with Smile Happy!!
Even with his four consecutive losses he is more proven and tested than the favorites and as I said he is an enticing overlay.
Eddie, I didn’t know that about Dash Attack, that’s interesting lol.
And to Steve’s comment just below, I agree. His BC effort especially was too good to ignore. Think he has to respected here.
I think the fact that they made the Jockey switch on Pappacap indicates that the connections were looking for more than stretching his legs in The Lecomte. I was sorry to see Pappacap draw the rail until I saw some post position stats at Fairgrounds. It turns out that they run very few races on dirt at the mile and an eighth distance. I don’t know why. So, it’s a very small sample size. But, it turns out that the #1 post is a very favorable spot to be. But again, that’s from a very small sample size. As far as Zandon goes, trainer Chad Brown sends his horses out ready to rumble. Coldfacts makes a very logical point why Smile Happy towers over these 2 runners, but, I’m sure that even Coldfacts would have to admit that Horseracing can be very illogical at times.
I just checked the post position stats for the current meet at Fairgrounds. For whatever reason, The Risen Star will only be the 3rd race run at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. The #1 post is 2 for 2 so far. Interesting, but, way too small of a sample size to get excited. I saw another stat somewhere that said that over 5 years Fairgrounds has only run 23 races on the dirt at 1 1/8 miles. Clearly, it’s not a very popular distance down in Cajun Country. I don’t remember how many winners there were over that 5 year period, but, I do remember that the #1 post had done very well. I just can’t find where I saw that.
Tommy I found a video online where they followed Casse at the Lecomte. He didn’t sound very convincing when asked about his chances. And they showed him cheering during the race, where at the end he said he ran good and seemed satisfied. Overall I got the sense he wasn’t expecting his best, but was satisfied with the effort. I’m reading a lot into this, but we all see things in a way to support our own thinking. 🙂
It looks like HISA was being challenged in federal court today not only by the Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association but also the American Quarter Horse Association and a list plaintiffs to include the North American Association of Racetrack Veterinairians but also to include the state affiliates of Arizona, Arkansas, Indiana, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylyvania, Washington and West Virginia to stop this government hostile takeover and tax the horseracing industry without due process as unconstitutional citing the 10th Amendment.
Legislation passed by Congress and signed by the President = “government hostile takeover”????
Ok, then how about leverage, or force, or clench, or grasp, or clasp, clutch, strengthen, grip, grasp or grapple.
That sounds like a typical night at a fraternity house.
Does QAnon have a pony club fraternity? Lol!!
Americ became a great country because it was able to make series of course corrections via legislations by the congress. If what is going on in the Thoroughbred Industry was a cause for concern, there would be no need for government intervention.
HISA has the support of many in the industry. To simply blame government overreach suggest you are not acritical thinker.
Several years ago the Breeders Cup Board proposed to ban Lasix form race comprising the championship. This drew outrage from many owners and even lawsuits were contemplated.
Today no BC is contested with Lasix and there appears to be wider foreign participation in the championship. Certainly the Jamoanese aseem more likelyto send theri best to Americawth the knowledgetaht tahy wu=ill not be competing agi horse loaded with race day mediction.
EDITED – Initial post inadvertently submitted.
America became a great country because it was able to make a series of course corrections via legislations by the congress. If what is going on in the Thoroughbred Industry wasn’t a cause for concern, there would be no need for government intervention.
HISA has the support of many in the industry. To simply blame government overreach suggests you are not acritical thinker.
Several years ago, the Breeders Cup Board proposed to ban Lasix form the races comprising the championship. This drew outrage from many owners and even lawsuits were being contemplated.
Today all BC races are contested with Lasix. This has resulted in what appears to be wider foreign participation in the championship. Certainly, the Japanese seem more inclined to send their best to America with the Knowledge that they will not be competing against opponents loaded with race day medications. I am sure you are aware of the quest to secures a portion of Japan’s wagering market.
America’s despicable practices in the industry will only end when it is forced to.
Looking to learn a bit more on the subject of a gap in works…
I see a 2-week gap in works for Smile Happy (Jan. 23 – Feb. 5). This has always been a red flag for me. What are your thoughts on this? If it matters, how much? One viable excuse is bad weather/track affecting the training. But I can’t think of another. And I’m not sure if that was the case here with Smile Happy. Thanks in advance for any knowledge (or opinion) you have to share.
Just read that the Jockey Club has reversed their directive to limit the number of breeding certificates to 140 per stallion. No doubt the two lawsuits that were filed against the JC was an influencing factor.
This in combination of the dissolution of the HISA/USADA boards has placed me very close to a decision to no longer follow this sport.
That saddens me as I have been a fan since I was five years old. However, there does come a time when has to choose following their conscience as to what is the right thing.
Thoroughbred Horse Racing in this country today is not just about the greed for the need for speed, but it has become about greed in general.
Very few are really concerned about the health, safety and welfare of the horse whether said horse is on the track or in the breeding shed.
Every year thousands of unwanted Thoroughbreds and pensioned broodmares are sold and shipped to Mexico under the most horrendous of conditions.
The doping and the drugging of horses continues.
Stallions are bred to over 150 mares, some to over 200 mares annually. The end result is that many stallions drop dead, or are pensioned early (as young as 18).
And I could go on with my list, but I will not.
Steve, I wanted you to know that if I drop off this site, it is not because someone stepped on my toes or was rude to me.
For the most part I have enjoyed each and everyone of your columns and the responses and discussions from those who follow you for going on 11 years (that is how long I have been reading your columns).
At the very least I have take a hiatus from the sport and following the horses in their careers beyond their three year old career.
Lynda,
Very insightful, honest commentary. Never apologize for following your conscience.
Overbreeding is a disgrace.
Incredible post, people need to stand up and expose what’s happening………thank you!!
I salute you Lynda. If only the powers that be had half of the ethical belief you do, the sport of horse racing would be in a much, much better place than we find it in at the present time.
Sorry to see you leave, Lynda. But I understand.
I understand Lynda. Please feel free to come back anytime/ You will be missed, and thank you for everything over the years.
The negative impact on the gene pool resulting from the overbreeding of the top stallion is meaningless to sellers and consigners. The damage to the product on offer is also meaningless.
This America were money and the means to make it trumps all.
I know that Steve has pointed out that Zandon could be lacking in “bottom” having only 1 six furlong race before his good 2nd in The Remsen. But, Zandon is the only horse in the race that has already run a mile and an eighth. I just don’t know what to make of the fractions that were run in The Remsen. 51.2, 1:16.1, 1:41.1, and completing the 1 1/8 miles in 1:53.3. At least they came home fairly quickly. After looking at this race since Sunday, I’m still torn between Epicenter, Pappacap, Smile Happy, and Zandon. I know that Matthew would say that I don’t have the winner among my four. Matthew is usually right about such things. I would be shocked if Smile Happy goes off at his ML odds of 7-2 or higher. I still have 2 more days to figure it out.
Speaking of Morning Lines, I was surprised by the MLs for The Rachel Alexandra as well. La Crete and North County both at 8-1 with wins over the track. The comebacking Hidden Connection is the 3-1 favorite way out in the 11 gate and Awake At Midnyte, in from California, the 2nd choice at 7-2. I know that making a Morning Line is tough, but, who makes the line at Fairgrounds? The Casino Manager?
I’m not saying that Hidden Connection or Awake At Midnyte can’t win. In fact, I prefer those two. I just think that La Crete and the 3 for 3 North County will take some money.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Zandon or Smile Happy wins the Risen Star.
Matthew, WHO would be surprised if Zandon or Smile Happy wins the Risen Star? 😉
Subsequent to the Bob Lewis Messier is widely regarded as the leader of the 3YO male division. Slow Down Andy defeated Messier in their sole meeting. Despite this bit of cold fact, you haven’t mentioned Slow Down Andy in your post.
Gare to share your reason/s for his dismissal?
I had singled Slow Down Andy in the early pick-5 on Breeders Cup Friday in The Golden State Futurity and he was betdown that day from his ML odds. Slow Down Andy made a big move around the turn and looked like the winner before getting run down by Finneus. That was a Cal-Bred race which doesn’t really matter since the horse is obviously improving. But, I hold a grudge because he cost me the pick-5 that day. I will say this: I made a note in my book that the Jockey moved too soon in that race. Also, what would Finneus’ odds be in The Risen Star? 20-1+? Not that it matters.
As a result of Classic Causeway’s impressive Sam Davis win, the colt’s connections are targeting the Tampa Bay Deby. Should he be a bet against if he is entered?
It is obviously too early for such a question, with the Tampa Bay Derby field not yet assembled. But from a historic perspective a Tampa Bay Derby victory might prove elusive for Cassic Causeway.
Subject to correction. It appears only Steve’s favorite Giant Causeway colt Destin has completed the double. It took a NTR for him to secure victory in the TBD. That’s how diffficult achieveing the double apppears to be.
Todd Pletcher must be contemplating enrrants for the TDB. I wouyld love another shot at CC with Golden Glider. The Gohsrtzapper colt could have finished either 2nd or 3rd if stable mate Volcanic didn’t whipe him out at a crucial point of his rally down the lane. I am positive I will get alonger odds as it appears this incident was missed asthere was no SE.
When a particular race emerges as being very productive. Does the winner of such a race, wins next out? Who keeps such information? Certainly not me. However, I have found a productive race that can be compared to the 2021 Kentucky Jockey Club stakes. Ironically, it is the 2017 renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
The 2017 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was won by Enticed. Opponents that finished behind him returned to win 3 graded stakes. Other recorded top 2 to 3 finishes in graded stakes See Below:
Promises Fulfilled – Fountain Of Youth
Bravazo – Risen Star
Quip – Tampa Bay Derby
Lone Sailor – 2nd LA Derby
Tiz Mischief – 3rd Holy Bull
Enticed finished 4th in the Holy next out, whereas 3 that finished behind him were next out winners. Is Smile happy an automatic to win the RS?
He will be facing a different cast of characters. Call Me Midnight’s win over the 3 Lecomte entrants that have returned for the Risen Star, would suggest Smile Happy has those 3 covered. But it must be noted that the first 3 quarters of the Lecomte were faster the first 3 quarters of the race involving Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon, which was completed in 2 second faster.
Why did Todd Pletcher enter Pioneer of Medina, who needs to makeup 5 to 10L to win? Could he emerge as another Danza? TP remains the most dangerous trainer in America.
I recall someone here picked the winner in the Lecomte at a nice 25-1 or so. I’d be interested in their opinion for the Risen Star 🙂
That was Sir Matthew of Longshotia. He likes Slow Down Andy (see below).
That was me I’m not hooked up to any longshot this time–will play Slow Down Andy across and ex box with Zandon—should get 8-1 on Slow Down, I think his odds will climb up BUT—this race is much stronger field than the Lecomte, Call Me Midnight was a real good PRICE—perhaps Slow Down Andy will creep up some, too.
I look for odds value, if pressed I would usually pick the favorite, as winner—-I look for value—Slow Down has outside draw…Cal bred…..big ship…..likely climbs up from his 9/2 ML.
Good Morning Steve & all. Steve any word on T-Graph numbers on Volcanic yet? Thanks for all your info!
He got a “5 1/2.” Down from a “4 1/4” in his last start. That wasnt a fast race. Winner only got a “5”
Wow. CC had a 5 and Volcanic a 5 1/2? I didn’t realize that ground lost had that much of an impact on the TG figures.
Probably has the biggest impact.
I was certain I’d be passing on the Risen Star. But what the heck, there could be some fair odds on all combatants other than my personal numero uno Derby hopeful, Smile Happy. So…unless something happens to throw me off of him in the walking ring, post parade, or warmup, I’ll go with Pappacap.
Considering his past accomplishments a victory would make him the overlay of the year as likely 5th choice,
Absolutely. He’s got excellent tactical speed. I expect Tyler to have him right behind the leaders in the backstretch.
Hmmm…he’s the ML co-second choice.
Smile Happy 7-2
Pappacap 4-1
Epicenter 4-1
Slow Down Andy 9-2
Zandon 9-2
One point separating 5 horses in the ML.
Pappacap’s last 3 starts have been over 8 1/2F. He has found 1 or 2 better. The RS field is more competitive than that of the Lecomte. I could never wager Pappacap with confidence.
One has to search long and hard to find a RS winner off 4 consecutive defeats. But it’s a horserace.
Actually, you can go way back to the ancient time of 2014 to find a Risen Star winner that lost its previous four races.
The Risen Star is up next. Do I have jewels to oppose Smile Happy and Slow Down Any? The RS is no different from any other horse race. The glorious uncertainty clause still applies, irrespective of the assembled field.
Given how live the 2021 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is proving to be with its 3 next out stakes winners. Smile Happy should just be awarded the purse for first place and the others competed for the remaining proportion. The Bob Lewis
performance of Messier over a grossly overmatched field. Makes Slow Down Andy’s win over him in the Los Al Futurity, even more significant. So, the RS it appears to be a contest between two last out stakes winners. But it comes down to making money at their expense, if possible.
NEW SHOOTERS:
The 2times outstanding trainer award-winning Brad Cox has 2 entrants. One a $430K son of Pioneerof The Nile and the other a Calumet homebred. Both are undefeated in their respective two starts. Can any light up the board? I am dreaming one can. Hey! Drams are free.
TAWNY PORT – This son of POTN is the winner of two 8F races over the All-Weather surface at Turfway Park. Come on Coldfact! You certainly do not believe a Turfway Park invader can win the RS? Not after Run Happy the sire of Smile Happy, won impressively at Turfway Park. Then invaded the Fair Grounds for the Lecomte and got his clock cleaned, finishing 9th by 21 1/2L. Well, Run Happy was best at sprinting. Tawny Port is a dead router and a good onw too. He won both 8Fs in 1:37+. Any such final time for a 2turn mile must be considered excellent. One was with a last to first move involving slow fractions and the other was a close to the pace with wicked fractions.
From a pedigree perspective. TP was produced from a mare sire by the Holy Bull stallion Macho Uno. Went POTN was bred to a Holy Bull mare it produced the very talented Cairo Prince. This colt should be doing its best work in the lane. If he is good enough, he will be contending for the win at a price.
BODOCK – Who is this relatively unknown colt? Well, he is a full sibling of Hence, whose unlikely of wins in a MSW at Oaklawn Park on 1/16/2017 was the talk of the town for a while. Unlike Hence who was dead router, this colt broke its maiden over 5 1/5F and followed up with a win over 6F. It is evident from the modest winning time and his stride mechanics, that he isn’t a sprinter. When a router can sprint that makes it less pace dependent.
The big question has to be. Why has trainer Cox chosen to enter a 9F stakes with a colt with starts over 51/2F & 6F? Well, if anything is known about the owners of the colt, the question becomes irrelevant. Calumet isn’t afraid to enter stakes races with horses many consider either misplaced or overmatched. There policy have a paid dividend on numerous occasions. If they aren’t afraid neither am I. I am of the opinion this colt will be better routing and he could be a lot better than his 2 races indicate.
This colt’s sire, Street Boss is an excellent stallion whose progenies shouldn’t be dismissed. Danza lit up the board in the AK Derby at @40/1. Capo Bostone lit up the board at @28/1 in the then Kings Bishop. The aforementioned represents a bit of history to encourage dreaming.
You’re right about Calumet and longshots. Just in the last few years they’ve had high priced winners in graded stakes: Lexitonian 34-1 and 17-1, Bourbonic 72-1, Channel Cat 13-1, Bravazo 21-1, Funny Duck 39-1, Oxy Lady 36-1. On the other hand, none of them raced under Brad Cox. I can’t remember the last time he had a graded stakes winner that went off at more than 5-1. But if you’re betting, I wish you good luck.
You can add Oxbow in the Preakness.
That was a shocker!
Palice Malice with blinkers caused a crazy pace in the 2013 derby. The only horse to finish close to the winner Orb that was on the pace was Oxbow. Had Palice Malice not run off like he did at the start, maybe Oxbow would’ve won. I loved Oxbow in the derby because of his tactical speed and stamina. He proved it in the Preakness.
So you, Tom Jones, must have thought “It’s not unusual” when Oxbow crossed the finish line first. 😉 As I recall, Oxbow was going pretty fast himself in the early part of the Derby even though he was tracking the supersonic PM by a few lengths. Hope you bet him in the Preakness.
Very good. Simply tracking PM cost Oxbow any chance to win and I wagered him to win and on top in my exotic bets. Breaking from the #2 hole Stevens had to send him and I thought he could take them all the way. Blinkers back fired for Pletcher, PM went too fast but maybe Mike Smith wanted to duplicate his Bodemeister ride from the year before but this time win. Who knows?
Agree about Oxbow.
“”He ran a close 2nd in the Belmont under suicidal fractions.
n the race Oxbow broke third out of the gate and settled behind pacesetters Frac Daddy and Freedom Child, completing a quarter mile in 23 seconds. As usual, Oxbow wanted to run close to the front, Stevens knew better than to fight with him, and so, as in the Derby, horse and rider once again chased the speed horses at fractions described as “suicidal”. At the half-mile pole Oxbow was a neck off the leader, who clocked at 0:46.66, and on the backstretch, Oxbow went to the front, reaching the three-quarter mile mark at 1:10.95, running the second fastest half- and three-quarter mile fractions at that point in the race since Secretariat’s 1973 record-setting performance. Oxbow was still in front by a half length at the mile post. At the top of the homestretch, Palace Malice and Oxbow were nose and nose but Oxbow tired, and finished second by three lengths to Palace Malice with Kentucky Derby winner Orb third,[76] 1+3⁄4 lengths behind Oxbow. His speed figure for the Belmont was 98, the same as in the Risen Star Stakes.”
This comment is a reply to tom jones.
And PM had blinkers off for the Belmont and it made a huge difference.
Eddief, when you say high priced, are you referring to how much they paid for the horse?
If so, please consider that Calumet horses are “home breds”. The operation has its own roster of stallions and a their own broodmare band. True enough that they do take their mares to outside stallions sometimes.
Calumet’s mission statement is a successful and productive roster of Stallions hallmarked by diversity of bloodlines, soundness, conformation and performance at the racetrack.
I enjoy checking out their stallion roster. Every one has great conformation, good bone and I have yet to see one of their stallions with some of the conformation faults that some very high profile and very costly stallions have.
Their fees are reasonable. A small breeder could easily afford a breeding with their stallions, none have fees higher than $7,500.
Heck if I had the hankering to do so, I could afford to breed one of my mares to Raison D’Etat. He is simply gorgeous in my opinion.
Calumet is one of the few remaining “private stables” that breeds and races horses under their colors.
I took this quote from an article that was written about Brad Kelly in 2019.
“The mystique around Calumet is such that it aptly discloses a nearly perfect anagram for “Camelot.” Both words evoke, not just an idealized past, but a yearning for the restoration of standards eroded during our unchivalrous times. Of course, Calumet has itself had its modern lapses, but there’s no mistaking the wholesome intentions animating its latest ownership.
True, the methods of Brad Kelley and his team sometimes strike the orthodox observer as idiosyncratic, to put it mildly. But it makes sense to write a new chapter, in their own hand, rather than try to retrace the calligraphy of a bygone, irretrievable age. To some of us, moreover, the ends implicit in the Calumet program are as exemplary as the means can admittedly appear quixotic.”
It is indeed a bit unusual for Calumet to use a high profile trainer like Cox even though they have sent a few of their horses to Pletcher.
Brad Kelly and his organization are just not an in your face blowing and going group and neither are most of their trainers.
Hi, Lynda. I was referring to the high payouts on Calumet longshots, as discussed by Coldfacts, not purchase price. But that is very interesting info about the operation. I’ve only been to Lexington and Keeneland a few times, but I always made sure to pass by the beautiful entrance to Calumet on Versailles Road.
EddieF, thank you for the clarification.
Calumet is indeed a beautiful farm.
I traveled through Lexington twice some years back and it is the heart of Blue Grass Country.
I missed an opportunity to visit Secretariat on one trip. He was euthanized that same year in the Fall. Could kick myself for that lost opportunity. We were back hauling some Arabian brood mares from Paramount Arabians to Virginia and thunderstorms were in the forecast and we wanted to try to beat the storms.
It was sad to see so many of the private stables closed and the beautiful homes and barns torn down and the land sold off for real estate development.
Calumet is the one remaining jewel in Lexington. (I did get a glimpse of Shadwell on one trip.) Another beautiful farm as is Three Chimneys.
Happy Jack, by Oxbow beat the Baffert $2.6 million yearling, Blatchley Park a few weeks ago 1st out at 25-1.
Forgot to mention, Happy Jack Own/bred by Calumet.
EDIT:
Their policy has paid dividend on numerous occasions. If they aren’t afraid, neither am I. I am of the opinion this colt will be better routing and he could be a lot better than his 2 races have indicate.
Just off video, I like me some Slow Down Andy in the Risen. Looking forward to the pp’s so I can see the full picture.
PPs have been out since Saturday.
Thanks Steve, taking a first look tonight.
Cool down pro!
It’s not enough you troll everyone and every article on HRN, now you’re doing the same here.
The only bad sign……is you.
Steve, nice analysis as usual.
nice analysis of what?……..what does that mean?
Can you analyze a two horse race?? All you do is troll….here, HRN, BH and your workplace….cleaning stalls.
this troll is allowed?…….why no message to him?……you dont know who this is?…….again……where did i troll?……..i responded to a post…..what i said is true
Some enchanted evening…..
You may see a stranger…..
Running past the field—
While looking directly at YOU….
And suddenly then…..
You know very well…..
There’s only one horse that can win a Gr2, while looking at YOU…….
If only ‘cranky’ Frankie had listened to his own words. Ha ha
Zandon, has me under his spell at the moment but Slow Down Andy is worrying me more than Smile Happy. Trafalgar has a bit of a following here as well, I would like to be convinced on this but…
I like Zandon think he will be up close! I’m taking a chance on Sliw Down Andy but it’s a chance I love to take—IF Mario takes him back and over ALA his Los Al race …Gut feel is this race will have middle moves! Mario WAIT….horse will do the rest!
Fairgrounds has a long stretch so does Los Alamitos liking Slow Down Andy over Zandon late, people thinking Andy beating Messier was somewhat bogus …going to get your price Sat, maybe 10-1 —IF can get back and over, and sit a trip behind some pace….there’s things to like, namely PRICE!
That’s how I’m reading it as well. Slow Down Andy has a toughish post to overcome, Zandon might get a perfect trip, Rosario can ‘milk out’ a lead which is dangerous, Smile Happy will have to be as good as some think. Should be a fascinating race.
Matthew, 10-1 on Slow Down Andy? Good luck getting that price. In this field, you should be ecstatic with 5-1.
I’m thinking $20 price on Slow Down! Cal-bred, LOST to Cal-breds! Everybody thinks Messier didn’t fire when he lost, far outside draw YES I’m thinking 9-1 odds!
If you can dream and not make dreams your master…
Matthew, your lyrics nearly brought tears to my eyes. Well done!
You care zero regarding horses.
Just released via the DRF (Jay Privman)….”no indication, as of today, that partnership that owns Messier etc. intends to move horses”.
When they make a move, that’s when we’ll have an indication.
Makes sense. However, it might be an indication where this Baffert/Churchill Downs might be heading…..
Word on the street is that Rattle N’ Roll is pointing to the Fountain of Youth now. I like that for him!
The FOY is starting to look very competitive. RNR, Simplification, Emmanuel, and maybe Mo Donegal.
A. P.’s Secret looks like the improving type who is also to run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Post positions can make the difference at Gulfstream, especially for inexperienced runners.
Yes, Davids. AP’s Secret has potential. But he was second to Strike Hard a couple of races back, and Strike Hard was out of the money in the Davis.
More often, than not, what happens at Tampa Bay stays at Tampa Bay – worth remembering. I’m watching A. P.’s Secret’s progression to see if it coincides with his sire, Cupid.
The number of comments drops considerably if Steve isn’t involved in the dialogue. I hope all is well. Perhaps he’s busy working on a Risen Star column for tomorrow or Friday.
Sorry. I’m here. I wouldnt want the comments dependent on my participation. I like to see what others have to say. And would love to see new names to expand the opinions. The Secretariat.com followers/members as a whole do not comment on any of the columns.
Glad to know you’re fine. So…no Risen Star column? 🙂
i never write columns during the Derby Rankings. Thats a full week’s job. I went over the Post positions a little and no use handicapping when 5 of the starters are ranked
I’m sure that your readers wouldn’t mind it if you posted a comment with a few thoughts on the race.
The more that I think about it and the more that I look at the past performances, the more that I think Smile Happy will run a big race on Saturday. I expect him to run 1st or 2nd. Smile Happy and Zandon have both run a number that’s faster than any of the other entered horses have run as of yet. Zandon comes into the race off a bullet 4 furlong work last Saturday as Steve mentioned. Chad Brown can always be counted on to send his horses out ready for action. I also think that Epicenter and Pappacap will run big. Trafalgar needs to improve and he might with the addition of blinkers. That brings me to Slow Down Andy. I don’t want to say that I have a grudge against a horse, but, he cost me on Breeders Cup Friday when he lost that Cal-Bred Stakes to Finneus. Slow Down Andy got bet down that day and made a big move around the far turn and looked like a sure winner only to have Finneus, ridden by Joel Rosario that day, come and get him. So, I may be blinded by the fact that I was “singled” to Slow Down Andy in the early pick-5 that day.
Slow Down Andy beat Messier in The Los Alamitos Futurity. But, the Messier that we saw at Los Alamitos that day looked nothing like the Messier that won The Robert Lewis at Santa Anita. The other thing that I ask myself is “what would Finneus’ odds be in The Risen Star?” 20-1+? But, I have to admit that I like the way that the improving Slow Down Andy is working.
If Slow Down Andy weren’t in that Los Al race Messier would look the same, 4 horse field in front by a big margin, just like the Lewis
I couldn’t help be reminded about a similar incident. I had Free House singled in a Cal Bred stake race at 4-5. He ran a stinker that day then went on to win nearly $3.2 million, not to mention two 3rd’s and a 2nd in the triple crown races. That’s the beauty of the game.
I’m not sure WHOM it was I was talking with, I thought he was one of Andy’s co-owners, who told me before the Los Al Futuritythey were shocked that he got beat by Finneus, and that Andy is the real deal……I didn’t listen to him and bet on the horse, but he delivered a big win, so now we will see just what he’s made of this Sat!,
Messier and Slow Down Andy along with the other Baffert horse looked great in the walking rink prior to post parade. When they went onto the track, O’Neil walked over and gave Baffert a big hug. I knew my bets were in trouble after seeing that.
This seems like a silly exercise, since Baffert has the best horses, and his best is not mentioned here. What you say about Messier in terms of owners choices could also be said for Corniche. Why not include them all? If Baffert doesn’t win his case, then those with a real chance will go to other trainers. Either way, it would be good to know more about how they are doing. jmo.
Who are the missing Baffert colts that Steve Haskin has negotiated to mention?
neglected, not negotiated. Should read before sending. Lol. The iPad is its own master at times.
Corniche has no works…………its feb 16………..there is a reason he is not working. Almost all reasons, are BAD NEWS.
nO TRAINER should talk about a horse”s issues………
Wrong website. The horse racing site for trolls is hrnDOTcom.
Respectfully to you, I am not here to pass judgement on anyone but I do not feel your response to him was respectful.
I realize he can get on one’s nerves but it is up to each individual to show respect to others, even if we feel they do not deserve it.
Although I do not agree with a lot of what he says every once in awhile he makes logical sense on what he posts.
I take it you thought I was replying to pro vet. If you follow the lines, you will see that I was replying to the new troll, Frank Ruggirello.
Respectfully,
EddieF
I wish it was easier to follow who is responding to who. I often get confused. That is the weakest part of the comments section
Yeah, it can be difficult sometimes. But it should have been easy to see that I wasn’t replying to pro vet because my post wasn’t indented below his.
I’m sure there are plenty who arent aware how to follow the threads. Often the first replier will have a long thread and the reply to the original comment gets lost so far down
Sure, in that case it is definitely difficult to follow.
Steve, I have noticed the same. That is why I have started including the “name” of the person I am replying to.
Smart move
You’re a sick man. Get help.
I met Eddie Haskell at Los Al one Saturday night, he was racing his Weiner Dog and he won! Funny thing was he still sounded like he was talking to Mrs Cleaver!
lol
I would have to say at this point that the chances of Corniche running in The Derby are 50/50 at best. Until he starts working out, what’s to talk about? I haven’t seen the connections mention an injury. With all the work that Steve Haskin puts into his rankings, I’m 100% confident that he is on top of the situation.
I’d say his chances of being in the derby are less than 1%. When American Pharoah was expected to return in the Rebel Stakes in mid March, he had begun training around the 1st of February.
SMH
Frank! u r WRONG!
Until Saturday it’s a cr*p shoot about who’s the best and who is most likely to run well in the derby. After Saturday we’ll have a much better idea. Of the top contenders, only Rattle N Roll and Commandperformance will not have raced this year. I was very impressed by Classic Causeway. I may drive across the state to see him in the Tampa Bay Derby. Brian Lynch has been a great trainer of turf runners for many years. He must be so excited to have a derby contender.
That sounds like an excellent idea, Roberta. I sense the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby will contain quite a few new contenders so there could be upsets galore. Classic Causeway may need your support close at hand.
I think the FOY will be a chance to see Emmanuel take on Simplification. Even if there’s no other top horse in the race it’s good enough for me!
I’m hoping that quite a few promising colts line up for the Fountain of Youth Stakes to test their mettle. Tod Pletcher will no doubt fill half the field, he seems to have an abundance of riches this year. Who knows, possibly some the Baffert barn as well.
RE: Risen Star Stakes
From my perspective, there are five horses that could win the Risen Star: Pappacap, Epicenter, Zandon, Smile Happy and Slow Down Andy. Of those five, Epicenter checks the most boxes, IMO. I’ll key Epicenter on top, with the other four underneath in my super wager.
BTW, why in the hell is Russian Tank even entered in the RS? Instead of going to Russia’s Western Flank, the tank commander could have mis-read his orders and sent him to the Fair Grounds instead. 🙂
I was a fan of Lord Nelson as a race horse and not because of his name. I am looking forward to the Risen Star and wish the best for Trafalgar. Until there is some clarity regarding the Baffert boys, I will be paying attention to a few of the lesser known runners.
Brisnet figures for ranked and KOTD horses in the weekend’s races:
Classic Causeway 1 1/16m TAM 2/12 – 99
Charge It 1m GP 2/12 – 98
Macallan 1m 40y TAM 2/12 – 91
Zozos 1 1/16m OP 2/11 – 94
We the People 1m OP 2/12 – 89
Barese 1m AQU 2/12 – 95
Blackadder 1 1/8m GG 2/12 – 88
“Brisnet high, Beyer low”…..in keeping with the South Pacific theme! 88 Beyer # does seem low, the horse was always on a lonely lead, and ran his race….Beyer recently upgraded Merneith from 102 to 108….
Wow, Eddie, I feel all better now that I know CC got a much bigger Brisnet fig than Barese. Still, it’s only 4 points. No comparing the two horses tho (until they run 1-2 in the Derby).
Glad to help. 🙂
Steve, in some respects we are in a liminal period with these colts as we wait for them to sort it out before the final ritual, the Kentucky Derby, can be played out. Often, sorting out the better colts from the not so precocious can be extremely frustrating as well as problematical. Some see this in a colt, others see that, while some see nothing at all.
Hopefully, the Risen Star Stakes wiil bring forth a new sizzle in this year’s Derby trail. I must be getting rather cynical but from what I‘ve seen from this crop thus far they don’t compare favorably to last year. Who knows, the Risen Star might just be the spark that ignites the flame that’s lacking this year.
I could be wrong but in your writing I sense a hesitation by you to anoint any of these colts as future stars in the making. Your enthusiasm, excitement over this or that colt doesn’t appear to be there so far. No doubt the ‘Baffert – CDI’ controversy is sapping quite a lot of life/fun out of a normally bubbling thrills that lead up to the Kentucky Derby. Let’s hope they sort it out, one way or another, fast.
Charge It, We the People appear to be exciting prospects but will they play a part in the Triple Crown races? Flip a coin on that. Probably best to wait, there are other jewels to plunder later down the track. As for the Risen Star Stakes itself, here’s hoping Zandon explodes on the turn distancing himself from the pack while leaving them far behind in his wake.
Steve, your support for Trafalgar has me wondering now, I thought miler, and the trainer is one of the best. Your weekly Derby Rankings are always a joy to read. While disagreeing on the abilities of some of the runners can often make the read even more enjoyable. Thanks again.
Hi David. I hope in your comparison you’re looking at last year’s crop at mid February. I think this group stacks up very well to last year’s crop.
No Roberta, not at all. Firstly, I thought Essential Quality was a standout and expected this colt would win the Derby or be unlucky not to win. Then there is Greatest Honour, who won the Holy Bull Stakes, I would consider Greatest Honour vastly superior to any of the present colts of this year. Midnight Bourbon, Proxy, and Mandaloun top three in the Lecomte Stakes 2021 equal to any of this year’s 3 year olds, if not superior. Jackie’s Warrior was third in the Southwest Stakes, again superior to the present. Life is Good and Medina Spirit first and second in the Sham Stakes last year – explanation unnecessary. Lol. Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie, first and third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes 2021. I rest my case. Ha ha
Massier looked good beating nothing but as you can see above, the good colts of last year at this time were actually competing with top completion. Sorry Roberta, I must sincerely disagree with you.
😮 Davids, please hold off on taking the bar exam.
Don’t worry, when deciding on the second degree I flipped between Law and Social Anthropology, the latter won. No regrets.
Y’alll are too funny. .
Thank you very much for the rebuttal, David. It looks like you’ve admitted to a slanted comparison. Ha ha! If you disregard what last year’s crop achieved after mid February, you would see that there’s very little difference in the two crops to that date. First, Essential Quality in mid February hadn’t made his 3 year old debut, just like any of several early favorites for this year’s derby. Greatest Honour won the Holy Bull impressively, but so did White Abarrio. I saw both races in person and liked both of their efforts. But who did GH beat? Prime Factor was the favorite and he was a first-out winner of a maiden race. There was not much else in the race.
The Southwest last year was at the end of February, so it shouldn’t be considered in a comparison. But even if you do look at it, EQ was the odds on favorite and he beat Spielberg, Jackie’s Warrior (a future champ to be sure, but as a sprinter), Woodhouse and a few others of even lesser quality.
And Medina Spirit in the Sham and Lewis? Did you think at the time that he was going to win the Kentucky derby? I doubt it. We had very little idea who those horses were last year in mid February and we have very little idea who these horses are so far. No further questions, your honor. Ha ha ha!
Roberta, I can honestly say by mid-February last year I expected the Kentucky Derby to be a race between these colts and, in this order = Essential Quality, Greatest Honour, Life is Good, Proxy, Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon-Hot Rod Charlie a tie, and Medina Spirit. There quality seemed clearly apparent to me or possibly, were a lucky guess. Ha ha
This year, during mid-February, there are some nice colts but there are none I would confidently say are going to squabble over roses in Louisville, on the first Saturday in May. Hopefully, the Risen Star this Saturday will be the spark that ignites the Derby Trail for 2022. Fingers crossed.
In otherwords you can say the same thing every year, a bunch of stakes winners win the 3yo stakes races …let’s just say Messier wow’d me and so far thats it for me ….looking forward to Sat, and the last half of the Risen Star.
No, that’s lacking any assessment, discrimination. Last years top 3 year olds appeared, to many, as a group of superior runners. This assessment was fully supported by 4 of the top 5 positions in the Breeders Cup Classic 2021was filled by 3 year olds. The high opinion of last years 3 year olds was further supported when Life is Good easily defeated the older horse champion Knicks Go in the Pegasus World Cup a few weeks ago.
Until the two crops actually start competing against each other the debate is mute really, just speculation, but it’s a high bar in replicating or bettering for this years 3 year olds to match at the end of the year. Time will tell.
I’m agreeing with ya!
Ha ha I’m a dill. Matthew, I was surprised you seemed to be disagreeing. Lol.
I think that this year’s group will turn out fine. There!…we cancel each other out.
Hopefully, yes. There a number of potentially ‘stardom bound’ colts but as yet they are not showing the earl brilliance of last year’s 3 year olds.
Even so, matching superior racehorses like Flightline, Life is Good, Essential Quality to name but a few is asking quite a bit of any crop.
The announcer at TB was spot on with his stretch call regarding the winner of the ‘Davis. I know he was off the board, but I thought Strike Hards race was better than looked. I’d be interested in his TG number
An engrossing Sixteen, Steve! I know we’re all waiting for the Risen Star to unfold on Saturday. Of course, there may not be a break out performance and there undoubtedly will be horses with excuses. Looking forward to hearing from you when Thoro-graph figs from the Sam Davis are known. All of the Beyer figs were surprisingly low given how impressive Classic Causeway was (along with my longshot pick, Shipsational).
Beyer, schmeyer. See above. 🙂
In keeping with the “South Pacific” and “Tick…Tick…Boom” references, the show title for the Risen Star should be “Something’s Gotta Give.” Hard to believe that at least two of the Big 5 will be out of the money. This race is make or break for Pappacap. He hasn’t shown in his three routes that he can gain on rivals in the stretch. Now he has a new rider, is going an added half furlong, and he has recency in his favor — it’s his second race after a 2.5-month layoff. I love that he’s from a modest breeding/racing operation from Florida, and that he’s by Gun Runner. For me, this is a race to watch and enjoy. No wager.
I’ll go for “ I Wanna Be Adored” – The Stone Roses from “Tick, Tick… Boom!” Excellent film.
Steve: Another great weekly summary. Glad to see you mention MaCallan, who I am very high on, and Trafalgar, who I bet in his first start based on stud fee/sales price ratio. But your best remark concerned the PEB cartoons. Many modern fans don’t know who he is/was, but I still have some of his work and some entire forms with his art on the front of the Derby Day edition.
Outside draw and strong field and Cal-bred status and wandering neck—will make for a solid price this Saturday on Slow Down Andy—-8-1 maybe more, I think they are in it to win it, get that Derby ticket punched! Ala Hot Rod Charlie!
Thanks Steve.
Overall I agree with your ranking and thoughtful comments. Risen Star should clear the waters a bit, I think.
Pappacap, Zandon, Epicenter and Smile Happy are all on my little list so I will be pleased with which ever one wins or gets points. Slow Down Andy is also on my list so will be interested to see if he can repeat his last performance.
This is Epicenter’s home track, is it not? Think that might give him a slight edge.
Bodock is an interesting colt (pedigree wise).
Have a great weekend everyone. Looking forward to reading your comments.
Pappacap, Trafalgar, Tawny Port & Bodock, and Epicenter have been training at FG for many weeks. So no edge, but it doesn’t hurt!
Lynda, did you notice that Bodock is a full brother to a grade 3 winner who was in the 2017 derby? Hence, trained by Steve Asmussen.
No, I did not see that. Thank you for sharing that information.
My pleasure!
The Risen Star could be a good spot for Epicenter who was “the talk of the town” going into The Lecomte. He shows a rising #s pattern and ran a doozy of a race in The Lecomte considering he was running against the track bias that day(in the Racing Form that I’m looking at there is a giant “C” in Epicenter’s running line which signifies a closer’s bias). As Steve points out, Epicenter will have to deal with the sprinter Bodock who will certainly be sent to set things up for Brad Cox’s “other” runner, the closer Tawny Port. Joel Rosario could secure a nice stalking trip if Epicenter cooperates. Rosario is a master at judging the pace of a race IMO. It’s going to be a good race. Don’t miss it.
As I said, Epicenter’s pedigree says he shouldnt be a front-running speedball. Once he learns to harness that speed he is going to be something. And Bodock cculd be the horse to help him. If Epicenter hooks up with Bodock then that is on him. He has the perfect target.
It will be exciting to see 5 members of Steve’s Derby Rankings, including #1 & #2, tangle in The Risen Star. Not to mention Trafalgar who is “Knocking on the Door”. Mark Casse turns to Tyler Gaffalione to ride Pappacap. I sense that people are moving away from Pappacap even though he was right there at the finish of The Lecomte as the slight favorite.
The late pace figures of Firing Line in the preps got my attention the year that American Pharoah triple-crowned the three year old races, (I held a lot of winning Derby tix that year) and so it was with great interest that I read about Emmanuel’s late pace figure of 110 in one of his preps. If he can duplicate that late pace figure in another prep or two going forward to Kentucky, look for him to be on the board and money on Derby Day. Emmanuel will be as dangerous as Firing Line was.
You might be remembering Firing Line’s overall pace and speed ratings in his last two preps. His Late Pace ratings were good, but not exceptional.
Maybe I am, but whatever the late pace figures were that year I do recall the numbers giving me a heads up that the horse would do well in Kentucky.
Love this list Steve, I think you nailed it considering it is still only mid February. Like you I was very impressed wit Classic Causeway’s performance. I love his breeding as well. Thunder Gulch was a very good race horse.
Until a few more of these hopefuls get on the race track I am liking Messier, White Abarrio, Newgrange & Classic Causeway.
Thank you for your hard work & assessments each week.
Thanks Deacon, but the truth is when it comes to the Derby trail no one nails it, certainly not this early
Trafalgar will be adding blinkers for Saturday’s run in The Risen Star. Trainer Albert Stall wins at 33% with that move.
He could be sneaky dangerous
Great observations and analysis Steve on your sweet 16. Zandon drew well in PP 7 and should be primed for a big effort on Saturday to pick up more valuable KY Derby points. I am glad Zandon drew outside of Epicenter, you know that one will be sent. Hopefully Zandon can sit a good stalking trip and take over in the long FG Stetch run. Excited that I knabbed Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1. I added to my KDFW lineup on Sunday when I bet 33-1 Commandperformance in KDFW3. He worked 4F at Payson Park today which marks his 3rd work off of a long layoff. He should be healthy now and you know Pletcher will soon target a 50 point prep for him to run in. As you mentioned, the fact that Commandperformance could finish a respectable second to Jack Christopher is a big accomplishment. The Derby season heats up on Saturday and some changes could be coming to your list. I bet Zandon and Commandperformance to win in those future pools as well as boxing them with each other and the field. Boxing my 2 with the field could be a good bet because Messier and Newgrange are still with Baffert and are still in the field. I’m glad
Thank you Joe. Best of luck with your bets. I saw today’s work :49 3/5. I like that.
Insightful and thought provoking as usual Steve! I really enjoyed the Sam Davis race. Was pulling hard for Volcanic to win or at least be second. Seemed like he was wider and wider all through the race and still was coming fairly strong at the head of the stretch! Please print his Thoro Graph pattern when you can. Appreciate your work.
Thanks John. I thought Volcanic ran great. Curious to see all the T-Graph numbers from that race
Thanks once again, Steve, for the hard work and insightful analysis that you bring to us every week. Unfortunately, the Baffert situation hangs over the Derby trail like a Texas tornado. I’m hoping that new developments don’t detract from the incredible race at the Fair Grounds on Saturday.
I’d make a case for ranking not only the newly — if temporarily — deposed stakes winner Call Me Midnight, but recent 2nd-place finishers Barber Road and Shipsational along with allowance winner Zozos. Any combination of those colts could reasonably replace Emmanuel and In Due Time in my view. I do understand that you’re projecting greater success for the latter two, but the stiffest competition they faced came from maiden winners. Also, Emmanuel won gate to wire after an uncontested and slow early pace, and In Due Time won a one-turn mile. We know the competition that Barber Road and Shipsational faced, and they acquitted themselves admirably. Zozos soundly defeated several seasoned 3 year olds, including the former Baffert runner Barossa, at 8.5f. Disagreement is what horse racing is all about. Right?
I can appreciate all your points and can make a case for all those you mentioned. I hated to take Call Me Midnight off and can assure he will be back very soon. I would not have done it if he were running Saturday. I was looking for a horse with more immediacy. I was impressed with In Due Time’s T-Graph fig and his Brisnet pace figs and watched th rrace over a few times. I just wanted to get him on there for at least a week. When you get down to No. 15 and 16 you can play around with it week by week. There obviously will be a number or huge changes next week and a possible major shakeup. I would consider Barber Road if he hadnt lost so many races in a row. But he is another right on the edge. I thought I gave Zozos a lot of ink until I can look at him more closely just like I did with In Due Time. Sometimes with so much going on and so many races to watch and so little time it takes a week to fully analyze and get a feel for a horse. He could show up next week as I look at him more closely. As or Emmanuel I feel trapped with him and realize I could be suckered in, which is why I lowered him. His T-Graph figs are not good at all. I dont know what to do with him. You are right he hasnt beaten anyone and and hes won on the lead and I mentioned that. He could wind up anywhere next week, even far down. I imagine the FOY is next. I feel next week will be the first true Rankings with a lot of changes. We’ll finally get to know who some of these top horses are.
As for Baffert, my ranking the two is based on inside sources about their future. I have tried to make that known between the lines. But things do change. It just would not seem right to keep off two horses who normally would be the two Derby favorites when I firmly believe they will be in the Derby. At least at this point.
Appreciate your replies. Completely understandable about where you have the Baffert duo. You certainly don’t have the luxury of ignoring them until the smoke clears. One thing is certain, the drama adds a whole new dimension to the Derby trail. Not that we needed it!
i get your liking Messier, but Newgrange is looking like one of those horses that can gather themselves in the straight–but that does not do well over the turns—he got there at Oaklawn but I don’t thing he was beating Derby timber, and not by all that much.
Stewards at CHD supposed to meet today though results might not be announced for several days. Hope this fiasco is nearing a final resolution. It has certainly upset a many of apple carts for the 2022 Derby.
This is really annoying to say the least with Baffert. However, I was reminded it took 50 months to finally resolve Dancers Image mess back in 1968. I would have thought that was a lesson learned but evidently not. Nobody thought the trainer or owner had drugged the horse but there it was a positive for bute after the race. The owner fought it for years but to no avail. So make up their darn minds already and move on. Not fair to the horses and owners stuck in limbo right now.
It’s unresolved to date because of the numerous legal challenges of the horse’s owner and trainer.
So excited to have another horse I own Micro shares in being mentioned!! We The People looked sensational in his debut on Saturday winning by 6
Something to look forward to down the road.