Derby Rankings: Week 6
The Risen Star Stakes was supposed to clear up the muddled Derby picture, but no one has a clue if it did or not, as the No. 1 and 2 ranked horses stayed right where they were despite both getting beat by a tough loose on the lead horse and having less than ideal trips. And so we move on. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Feb. 22, 2022 – Week 6
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
Can I say here and now there is no true No. 1, so why drop him off a second-place finish in his 3-year-old debut when he was never able to get in the clear and had no chance to catch a top-class speed horse who had zero pressure on him at any point in the race and was able to just lope around there on an easy lead and then came home fast? I want to try to stay loyal to the No. 1 ranked horse for now who I said last week didn’t have to win this race. And let’s not forget he did come home in :24 1/5 and :12 flat, which normally would be fast enough to win most races. I normally don’t question a ride unless it’s obvious, but even though Corey Lanerie said he wasn’t able to get in the clear I thought he was too passive on him around the far turn and could have gotten out and in the clear by following Slow Down Andy, but he just sat on him and never asked him to run, allowing Zandon to pass him on the outside. He fell way too far behind Epicenter and then was forced to try to find room in the stretch coming between horses down on the inside where Lanerie loves to be. It’s frustrating to see a jockey motionless on a come-from-behind horse on the far turn as the others get farther away from him. We know he has a good turn of foot on the far turn; we’ve seen it before. But he was never asked to use it. He cleaned up his feed Sunday morning and I would look for a much improved race next time and hopefully a more aggressive ride.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
If I’m not going to drop Smile Happy I’m sure not going to drop him after being taken completely out of his game with a bad start and still able to run a huge race, just missing second. Once a horse whose best weapon is his early tactical speed hops in the air at the break and drops back to last in a 10-horse field his fate is pretty much sealed. For Zandon to drop so far back and then rally widest of all as if he were a true deep closer to finish third, it shows he is a very talented and versatile horse, who has been unlucky in his last two starts. He certainly showed enough to keep him ranked up there with the best 3-year-olds, whoever they may be. And, like Smile Happy, he came home in :24 1/5 and :12 flat and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a faster Thoro-Graph number than Smile Happy. Between the Remsen and the Risen Star he has had two great learning experiences, is battle-tested, has faced adversity, and I don’t believe we have seen anything even remotely close to this colt’s best. For a horse with only three career starts he’s been asked to overcome a great deal. I think a lot more of him now than I did before the race and I only hope those Remsen points that were taken away from him by the NYRA stewards’ horrible decision don’t stand in his way. This colt is a star. Next stop Bluegrass Stakes.
3—Rattle N Roll (Ken McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
He was originally scheduled to make his debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he will be nominated to the race, but McPeek says he has two more breezes left and is ready now, feeling “he needs to get a run under his belt,” so he likely will run instead a week earlier in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 5, which would allow him to come back in three weeks for the Louisiana Derby because of the 1 3/16-mile distance. That is what McPeek is looking at, so I guess he’s OK with coming back in three weeks. Most trainers would shudder at the thought. If that doesn’t work out there are plenty of other big races over the following two weeks. After some decent breezes coming off the layoff, he finally let it all out with five-furlong work in :59 3/5, third fastest of 42 works at the distance. So you can see why McPeek wants to move his debut up a week. As he said, he is ready now. There is absolutely no way you can fault him after his powerhouse victory in the Breeders’ Futurity. The Fountain of Youth is shaping up as a deep and competitive race that will no doubt launch someone right up near the top of the list. He is one horse who certainly does not have to win as long as he shows that same explosive kick he did at Keeneland. If he can run huge in the Fountain of Youth going 1 1/16 miles with that short stretch against several serious Derby horses he could even leap frog the two above him.
4—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
I have been saying all along this colt is bred more for stamina than speed, and it was that stamina that allowed him to just cruise along on an uncontested lead with strong and steady quarters of :23 3/5, :24 1/5, :24 2/5, and :24 1/5 and come home his last three-eighths in a swift :36 3/5. There are not many horses who are going to beat him running a race like that and then closing that fast. And he did it under wraps the final furlong with Joel Rosario looking back four times as the colt came home in a virtual gallop with his ears pricked. He telegraphed this performance with that strong five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5, which gave him a little more bottom than the usual Asmussen half-mile works. He could have easily been elevated to No. 1, as his running style is what wins most Kentucky Derbys these days, but I do want to see him rate just off the pace to show he can adapt in case some fast horse is intent on getting the lead. I thought Bodocks would be that horse, but he just wasn’t good enough or fast enough to keep up with Epicenter, or simply didn’t try to. This colt is a powerful galloper as they would say in Europe and that is why all that European stamina makes him even tougher. I will go into his pedigree in more detail next week. The bottom line is that this colt surely is capable of leading every step of the way on the first Saturday in May, but I’m just looking for that one final edge that would give him the option to go to the front or stalk, which would make him even harder to beat at Churchill Downs.
5—Messier (Bob Baffert, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
He is another horse you can definitely make a case for being No. 1, as he has shown he has all the tools. He has a big turn of foot and he has the speed to run you off your feet on the lead. And he has shown he can demolish his opponents. But two little things need to be resolved. As of Monday he hasn’t worked since the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 6, and what the heck are they going to do with him already? Everything is hush hush and I can understand waiting as long as possible, especially if they’re going to go straight to the Santa Anita Derby and give him two months between races and put all their point in one barrel. As much as I believe he is a worthy No. 1, I can’t go that far not knowing who will be training him if he goes in the Derby or if they are going to leave him with Baffert no matter what or if Churchill Downs lifts their ban for some reason. You can count on Baffert appealing the 90-day suspension by the Racing Commission regarding Medina Spirit’s disquaification. Starlight, SF, Madaket and Company have more Derby and Preakness-caliber horses this year than many trainers have horses, and they are all in limbo right now. And then we come to the matter of Slow Down Andy and what to make of him running so poorly in the Risen Starr after having beaten Messier fair and square. The California horses are extremely thin this year with the Baffert bunch dominating the 3-year-old races, basically having only themselves to beat, as they single-handedly fill all these races. So was Slow Down Andy’s performance a barometer as to the true merits of Messier or was the Los Al Futurity simply a fluke, with Messier unable to settle early and having a dislike for Los Alamitos, the scene of both his defeats? I have no idea, and so we wait.
6—Newgrange (Bob Baffert, Violence – Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker)
You knew Baffert was going to return to the friendly confines of Oaklawn Park for the $1 million Rebel and who better to send than Newgrange with the Southwest already under his belt. If you thought Newgrange was more of a workmanlike colt and not the brilliant type, he did his best to prove you wrong with a stunning bullet five-furlong work in :58 3/5 in company with Doppelganger, who no doubt helped carry him to such a fast time that was fastest of 17 works at the distance. Newgrange sat right off Doppelganger’s flank, collared him at the head of the stretch, but just couldn’t get his head in front. Still, this work really sharpened him, and don’t underestimate Doppelganger because he finished fourth of five in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes, finishing behind two other Baffert horses. I believe he wants two turns with his powerful tail-female line going back to major stamina influence Herbager and Pretendre, the sire of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Canonero. So this was a real eye-opener for Newgrange. But he has already lost 20 points because of the ban and now we’re getting into the serious points, which he can’t afford to lose. Something’s gotta give.
7—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
He had a similar situation as Zandon at the start. For a horse who wasn’t allowed to run his race in the Holy Bull Stakes after breaking badly, he was itching to step on the gas once again, as indicated by his bullet five-furlong work in :58 3/5, fastest of 42 works at the distance. Hard to believe it was once thought by the owner to put him away for a while after the Mucho Macho Man. He has nothing but running on his mind now and got his “bounce” out of the way in the Holy Bull and can now return to that quick “2 ½” Thoro-Graph number, in which he leaped from a “14.” He has a strong pedigree, especially on the dam side, so there is no reason to think he won’t carry his speed long distances. In the Holy Bull he still was able to get second despite not changing leads in the stretch. I believe this colt has tremendous upside and I can’t wait to see what he does getting back to his normal running style in the Fountain of Youth.
8—White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
He’s another one we’re still waiting to work, which he hasn’t done since the Holy Bull Stakes on February 5. And I’m still looking to make some sense of his pedigree even with his powerhouse grandsires Tapit and Into Mischief. The rest of it, especially in his tail-female family is a hodgepodge of names that don’t define him in any way. He does have the look and demeanor of a top-class horse, and even with his main opponents in the Holy Bull having a rough go of it, he still looked great visually and beat them all pretty handily. The bottom in is that he’s won three of his four career starts all by fairly large margins with his only defeat coming in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes when he didn’t have the greatest trip. He definitely is a Cinderella story having sold for a paltry $7,500 after just turning one-year-old at an Ocala January mixed sale. His Thoro-Graph numbers need improving from the “5” he received in the Holy Bull, but he has made slow and steady improvement with each race. Now let’s just get him back on the work tab.
9—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Calingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
He keeps running strong races, but he really doesn’t tell you as much about himself as you would like to know. He closes fast without overwhelming you, and although his final sixteenth of the Holy Bull Stakes was visually impressive, he got going way too late after failing to respond when asked nearing the head of the stretch. The bettors love him sending him of at only 14-1 in the latest Derby Future Wager and you can be sure he will get bet in all his future races because he is such a consistent closer. But he is another who has not made much progress on Thoro-Graph since his Remsen victory, improving only a quarter of a point from that race, with his Brisnet figures down a point from a 93 to a 92. So he does need to get faster. Pletcher has a barn full of inexperienced 3-year-olds with a lot of potential who are more brilliant than he is, but he is the most dependable with the most experience and looks to be the most likely to get to the Derby.
10—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
I’m kind of torn with him and somehow he got pushed down a few places at least for this week. Everything about the Sam F. Davis Stakes was impressive from the way he put away the speed horse hounding him most of the way through fast fractions and pulled away with a strong :05 4/5 final sixteenth. But as it turned out I’m not sure what he beat and his Thoro-Graph numbers have shown no improvement since his career debut. He got a “5” then, a “5” in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and a “5” in the Sam Davis, which actually was slower than the number given runner-up Shipsational, a New York-bred who had never run in open company. Like Epicenter he is not bred for speed and has plenty of stamina in his female family, with his fifth generation sire Gun Shot being a son of the great Hyperion. The Sam Davis was an excellent first start back, and we’ll see how much he can improve going against better company.
11—Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
Having only those two walks in the park against maiden and mediocre allowance horses, I have to admit I was getting bored having to come up with new things to say about him. And with both his Thor-Graph numbers being a slow “8 ¼” and “8 ½” with no improvement I was starting to have my doubts if he was worthy of a top 10 or 12 high ranking. Then he went and worked five-furlongs in a bullet 1:00 1/5, fastest of 13 works at the distance, in company with the stakes-winning Major General, who is trying to bounce back after being sidelined since his victory in the Iroquois Stakes. Emmanuel is another Pletcher horse the bettors and the analysts have been high on since his maiden victory, but it obviously is based more on speculation, and from my end the visual aspects of his races. He now has to go out and prove he is that good when he takes on some pretty talented and proven stakes horses in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. This last workout should at least have him sharp enough to show what he’s got and whether he is worthy of all the accolades.
12—Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Smitten, by Tapit)
He is now up to five furlongs in his works, going in 1:01 3/5 as he gets closer to his 3-year-old debut, which will be in a maiden race. Imagine having a maiden ready to run and this guy shows up. You don’t see many Champagne runnersup entered in a maiden race heading into March. Pletcher has to sort out his 3-year-olds and now has another one in Pioneer of Medina, so it will be interesting to see where they all will show up next. I guess he just wants to a get a victory in this colt. If he loses, those roses could start to wilt very quickly. Let’s not forget that for Pletcher and the owners to run a maiden with one start in the Champagne they have to think very highly of him. And for a horse who suffered an injury in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile his fourth-place finish was not bad at all. There’s something about his career debut that was so impressive, even getting beat, that inspired me to start a new series on Derby sleepers, and he was the first I wrote about, so I am not going to stop believing in him until he shows me he is not the horse I thought he was from day one. You never know how they are going to return after an injury, even a minor one, or make the transition from 2 to 3, so perhaps Pletcher just wants to find that out before putting him on the Derby trail. He has the foundation; now all he needs is to win a race.
13—Call me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux, Midnight Lute – Overseen, by First Defence)
The Lecomte Stakes has turned into a mixed bag. Of the two horses he nailed on the wire at 28-1, Epicenter came back and toyed with his opposition in the Risen Star Stakes, but Pappacap tired badly after stalking the leaders along the inside. Call Me Midnight has had his ups and downs. The Lecomte was set up for him to come from the clouds with the rapid pace set by Epicenter, but he still had to take advantage of it and run down a very fast and talented horse. He should get a lot of speed from broodmare sire First Defence, who is out of a terrific sprinter in Honest Lady, but his dam’s female family is loaded with stamina, mainly through third dam, English Oaks runner-up Slightly Dangerous, who is by English Derby winner Roberto.
14—Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Pioneerof the Nile – Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya)
I have no choice but to keep adding Pletcher horses if I feel they belong. Coming off maiden and allowance scores in workmanlike fashion he was 33-1 in the Risen Star and had the unenviable task of chasing Epicenter in second. But surprisingly, he never gave up the chase and was right there battling with Smile Happy and Zandon to the wire, finishing fourth, beaten only 3 ¼ lengths. So is he that good or did his big effort show how much the pace was a factor, as he and Epicenter just kept going. All I know is that he never backed off and gave Smile Happy and Zandon all they could handle for the place and show spot. He is bred to go farther and may just now be coming into his own.
15—Barber Road (John Ortiz, Race Day – Enounter, by Southern Image)
He’s come a long way since selling as a weanling for $15,000 and breaking his maiden for a $30,000 claiming tag. But he has kept improving and has now run second in three consecutive stakes, including a big run from far back in the Southwest Stakes. But he still has a tendency to not finish his run, whether you want to call it hanging or not. He’s been having steady five-furlong works and had his fastest work on February 15, going in a sharp 1:00 2/5, so we’ll see how that plays out in the Rebel. If you’re not familiar with his sire, he won the Oaklawn and Razorback Handicaps and Fayette Stakes and is a son of Tapit, out of a More Than Ready mare. He is now in South Korea. Barber Road’s dam had the dubious distinction of selling as a broodmare at Keeneland in foal to Divine Park for $1,000. So there is a good story there.
16— In Due Time (Kelly Breen, Not This Time, Sweet Sweet Annie, by Curlin)
Always a good worker, he turned in a sharp five-furlong drill in :59 3/5 and just seems to be improving rapidly at the right time as indicated by his huge Thoro-Graph leap from an “8 ¾” to a “3” and the way he manhandled two highly regarded Pletcher colts. He appears to have a high cruising speed and can close off it. I could have put any one of a number of horses in this spot, but this colt intrigues me because of the way he won his last race and with the speed figures showing he appears to be close to a peak performance. Again, it’s all speculation, but this is the time of year when 3-year-olds start figuring it all out and burst on the scene, and this colt looked like he was doing just that in his last start. He is complete outcross through his first five generations, so that is something else that is different about him.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
The reason I dropped Withers winner EARLY VOTING is because I believe he will try the Wood Memorial and then go to the Preakness, which is what Chad Brown did with Preakness winner Cloud Computing. And Early Voting has only two lifetime Starts. SLOW DOWN ANDY, who was too headstrong early in the Risen Star, and PAPPACAP, whose effort was really surprising, were obvious demotions.
Kenny McPeek still has high hopes for TIZ THE BOMB, who ran poorly in the Holy Bull Stakes, failing to handle the kickback. He is being pointed for Turfway Park’s John Battaglia and/or the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Polytrack, with the option of still giving the Derby a shot. He did put in a tease work on Saturday, drilling a half in :47 flat, second fastest of 102 works at th distance, as if asking for one more shot on dirt. But McPeek also is nominating him for the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas and Derby. Remember, his sire Hit it A Bomb is out of an Irish-bred mare and was a listed stakes winner in Ireland for Aidan O’Brien before coming here and winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. As for his other disappointment DASH ATTACK, who was never a factor in the Southwest Stakes after winning the Smarty Jones Stakes impressively, McPeek admitted he didn’t do a good job preparing him for the race, having missed some training with him due to the frozen tracks and sent out a short horse. He was thrilled with his first work back on February 12, drilling five furlongs in :59 4/5 followed by a 1:00 1/5 drill, galloping out in 1:13 1/5. The colt certainly is sharp and fit now and will try for redemption in the Rebel Stakes, but will have to overcome the 11 post.
SPRINT ALERT: The last two weeks I have been raving about MORELLO, who has been absolutely flawless in his two sprints, including his impressive score in the seven-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, in which he got a sensational “1 ¾” Thoro-Graph number. He has never once been touched with the whip. As of now I fully expect him to continue his unbeaten streak in the Gotham Stakes; that’s how good I believe he is. And then it would be on to the Wood Memorial. Now we have another so far sprinter to watch. His name is BELGRADE and he was brilliant winning first time out by six lengths at Fair Grounds in December, getting the six furlongs in 1:10 3/5. How impressive was that race? The son of Hard Spun had sold as yearling for $45,000. A month after his maiden race he sold at this year’s Keeneland January mixed sale for $700,000 and turned over to Graham Motion, who ran him back this past weekend in a seven-furlong allowance race at Tampa Bay. Sent off at 2-5, he only won by a head, but stumbled badly breaking from the rail, moved up and then got squeezed back to last. He rallied four-wide and was game down the stretch to out-battle a nice colt in Morgan Point, who is by Rachel Alexandra’s son Jess’s Dream and who was coming off an allowance victory and was far more seasoned and experienced. Motion now is considering moving him up to the big-time in the Tampa Bay Derby. There is no reason why both these colts shouldn’t appreciate going two turns.
HIGH OAK, who was so impressive winning last year’s Saratoga Special over eventual Hopeful winner Gunite, is progressing in his works, breezing back-to-back half-miles in :49 3/5 at Payson Park following two five-furlong works, the last of which trainer Bill Mott called “a thing of beauty.” After missing the Swale Stakes with a slight fever the son of Gormley is now likely scheduled to make his return in the Fountain of Youth, with the Gotham a very outside possibility. His disappointing effort in the Hopeful was attributed to the beginning of a small fracture in his hind ankle. But the time off has done wonders for him and Mott feels he is ready to fire big in his two-turn debut.
Brad Cox said his recent runaway allowance winner ZOZOS will get some time off and likely will take one shot to try to get into the Kentucky Derby. That could be in the Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes. Cox also has a promising colt in CYBERKNIFE, who won a good allowance race at Fair Grounds Saturday.
After the 16.3-hand, 1,300-pound bulldozer ETHEREAL ROAD, who came from another area code to win his last race, worked five furlongs from the gate in 1:01 4/5, trainer Wayne Lukas said he is heading to the Rebel Stakes, for which he was entered, drawing post 10. The son of Quality Road ran a slow “9” Thoro-Graph number in that race, but it sure did get everyone’s attention. Another horse waiting for the Rebel is the impressive last-out winner CHASING TIME, who breezed a half in :49 3/5 at Oaklawn Park. It will be interesting to see how good this colt really is. He could be the controlling speed, and it might be up to BEN DIESEL, third in the Southwest Stakes, to keep a close eye on him if he returns to his earlier races when he showed speed, unlike the Southwest when he rallied from off the pace. If Chasing Time is as good as he looked in his last out allowance romp we could have a repeat of the Risen Star.
For those looking for more positives from SHIPSATIONAL’S second-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, his “4 ¼” Thoro-Graph number, which was big jump from his “8 ¾” in his previous start, was three-quarters of a point faster than the victorious Classic Causeway. Another horse who made big Thoro-Graph leap was the runaway Oaklawn allowance winner ZOZOS, who went from an “8 ½” to a “3 ½.”
Care to guess who got the fastest Thoro-Graph number last weekend and who is improving in leaps and bounds? What’s that? You say CHARGE IT in his sensational maiden victory? Not even close, as he got a “5 ¾”, which was slower than his previous start. The answer is the New York-bred BARESE, winner of the one-mile Gander Stakes, who has gone from an “11 ¼” to a “7” to a “2,” which makes him one of the fastest 3-Year-olds in the country. Time to move up to open company and show everyone he is a legitimate Derby contender. He is now undefeated in three starts for trainer Mike Maker with two state-bred stakes scores. The only question is how far he wants to go, with a number of top-class sprinters and milers in his pedigree.
After displacing in the Holy Bull Stakes, in which he suddenly dropped back, it was good to see GIANT GAME back on the work tab with a half-mile drill in :48 3/5, his breathing problem obviously corrected. So he surely deserves another chance.
The brilliant Cal-bred STRAIGHT UP G’s status as a Derby horse is in question following his recent defeat, in which he looked more like a sprinter/miler type, but he sure does work fast, with his last move a :59 2/5 drill for five furlongs.
Soup and Sandwich goes 2nd off the layoff in the 8th race at Gulfstream on Saturday after breaking bad while getting bumped & squeezed in his last start. He breaks from the #10 post, but, that should be OK at the one-turn mile. He’ll have to beat Todd Pletcher’s Liam who will be adding blinkers and Chad Brown’s Stage Raider who will be returning from a 9-month layoff.
I tried looking up the stats for Mo Donegal’s post #12, but, as far as I can see, there haven’t been any horses that have broken from the #11 or #12 at a mile and a sixteenth during the current meeting.
I notice that Irad Ortiz is only riding in the Stakes races. So, I figure that he is suspended again. Luckily, there are 9 Stakes races at Gulfstream on Saturday.
What are the odds that the 3 Not This Time Colts would draw post positions right next to each other? 2, 3, & 4. Weird.
I’ve heard rumblings that Mo Donegal will scratch out of the FOY. No official announcement from Todd Pletcher. We’ll see.
I heard that yesterday
Afternoon Steve
It comes as no surprise that you heard it before I did. 🙂
BTW, we are all eagerly awaiting your Rankings for Week 7. When can we expect that posting?
Thanks Steve.
Is it because Mo Donegal drew the #12 post? Or, has there been a setback?
Where will Secret Oath be in the updated rankings this week?
No sneak peviews. Lol
I like to try to guess how you will rank certain horses from time to time, I’m guessing Secret Oath debuts at #10.
Sent it in a few hours ago. Just waiting like everyone else.
If I recall correctly, Irish War Cry was the last Laurel Park colt to make some noise on the KD trail, (2017).
I’m holding out hope that another Laurel Park colt could make some noise on this year’s Derby trail. He’s an Elkstone Group homebred colt by the name of “Joe” by Declaration of War, out of an Arch mare, (Battle Bridge). He has 3 wins in 4 career starts at Laurel Park, the latest being an 8.5F, 62K AOC, in which he came from off the pace to win by 2 1/2L, in 1:45.66.
I realize it’s a little late in the game for his connections to opt for a Derby prep race, next out, but today, (2-28), I noticed he fired a bullet 5 furlongs in 1:00 flat, 1/4. Time is of the essence, so if the Elkstone Group has any hopes of having one of their colts make the KD starting gate, the time to act is now. They have several Derby prep race options to choose from.
Rattle N Roll 12-1 morning line, looks a little to juicy to me, I was thinking more in the range of 5 or 6-1??
Bruce
You can bet your bottom dollar that RNR will not be 12-1 at post time. I’m thinking around 3-1 or possibly 4-1. On Saturday, 2-26, he worked 5 furlongs in 58.67 which should give a clear indication he’s in excellent form and ready to rock and roll in the FOY.
IMO, Simplification is the horse to beat, who will be ridden by Jose Ortiz for the first time. In his last race, Javier Castellan was in the saddle. It’s not clear if Simplification’s bad break can be blamed on Castellano, or if the colt was just restless in the starting gate.
At any rate, I believe Jose Ortiz is an upgrade aboard Simplification.
That said, I’ll key Simplification and RNR on top, in the first 2 spots, with Howling Time, In Due Time, Dean Delivers, A.P.’s Secret, Emmanuel and Mo Donegal in my $1.00 superfecta P/W wager. That is: 2,6/ 2,6/ 3,4,5,7,8,12/ 3,4,5,7,8,12
Just for the hell of it, I’ll key Simplification on top, with the two other Not This Time colts (Howling Time & In Due Time) in the 2nd and 3rd spots in a fairly large trifecta wager. That is: 2/ 3,4 / 3,4
Safe trips to all.
I’ll join you on the Simplification to RNR exacta! I like it!
With the 13 horse field and 3 other top choices that’ll get bet, I think you’ll get 5-1 on RNR. We’ll see!
No Love for the Markhamian?
Top of the morning to you Facts.
My longshot pick in the FOY is A.P.’s Secret, at 20-1. How about a boxing Markhamian (20-1), and A.P.’s Secret in a $10.00 exacta? Works for me. Another longshot I’m giving a hard look at is Howling Time, at 15-1. He ran a clunker, last out, in the KJC, but looked impressive winning his first two starts, which included the Street Sense, at CD. In Due Time, another Not This Time colt, looks enticing at 6-1 and could be higher at post time. I plan on keying my top Not This Time contender, (Simplification) on top, with the other two NTT colts, underneath in a healthy Trifecta P/W wager. 2/ 3,4/ 3,4.
My $1.00 superfecta P/W wager will be as follows: 2,6/ 2,6/ 3,4,5,7,8,12/ 3,4,5,7,8,12 ($60.00)
Good luck with your bets Facts.
Edit to above post.
If Mo Donegal scratches out of the FOY, I will add Markhamian to my super p/w wager, (in place of Mo Donegal).
The Saturday Gulfstream card is out. 13 races starting at 12:10pm. Are they going to be able to finish that card before dark? It could be that the 13th race will be run in “the gloaming”. 8 of the 13 races have 10 or more horses including The Fountain of Youth which drew a whopping field of 13.
Bill Mott seems to have settled on a mile as Speaker’s Corner’s best distance. He’s entered in the 10th race, The Gulfstream Park Mile. As much as I dislike Gulfstream, it’s a very tempting card and it will be a difficult choice between The Great Race Place and The Gulf. I didn’t notice any Tapeta track races scheduled which is a good thing IMO. Their Tapeta Track remains a complete mystery to me. I may have missed one though. Joel Rosario rides at Gulfstream on Saturday. We all know that he means business wherever he shows up. I wonder what he’s pulling down a year?
Mo Donegal drew the #12 post at 3-1 with Irad Ortiz riding and Rattle N Roll will break from #6 at a very juicy 12-1 with Brian Hernandez in to ride.
I would guess that Mo Donegal’s #12 post would be one those “bad posts” that the trainers were worried about. Not good at a mile and a sixteenth at The Gulf IMO. Galt, with Joel Rosario riding and trained by Bill Mott, drew even worse in #13. Those two A-list jockeys will have to work out trips from way out there.
Haunting memories in the glens as the gloaming sets in. Scotland has such beautiful countryside.
Davids, did you know the Appalachian Mountains in the United States eons ago extended all the way to Scotland? Another piece of trivia is that eons and eons ago these same mountains were taller than the Alps.
When Scots migrated to the American colonies, many of them (including my Scot ancestors) settled in the Appalachians (North Carolina and Virginia especially) because the Appalachians and the eastern face chain, the Blue Ridge Mountains reminded them of the Scot Highlands.
Hi Lynda, aye to the positive. Thank you. My father’s best friend was a geophysicist from Wales and he was determined to school ‘we children’ on the physical structure of the earth. Human geography fascinated me as well so I study quite a few units at University.
Moreover, studying ‘oral tradition’ in the transmission of ancient/folk music around the world helps you to understand the interconnectedness of various communities from where they came. You can never stop learning.
The Santa Anita entries are out for Saturday. 11 races. 4 races with 10 or more starters. Still waiting for Gulfstream.
The 8-horse Big Cap is the 11th and final race. Flavien Prat gets the ride on Warrant for Brad Cox. Express Train seems to have things squared away after winning 2 in a row, but, a mile and a quarter remains a question mark. He’s 0 for 3 at that distance. He’s going good right now and if he’s going to get the distance, Saturday could be the day.
12 horses in the Gr1 Kilroe Mile….many years ago I made plans to bring my family to Santa Anita to see Cigar, in the Big Cap….a four seat box with table cost $37 then! Cigar was a late scratch, but my wife picked Mr Purple and her $10 win ticket offset my losses, that day—my big wager was at 7-1 on Cavonier, and he laid an egg, paying 10-1 in the SA Derby in his next race…..My wife, me and two young boys with a stroller, and only one elevator in the huge track—very hot day, and as we were loading into the elevator I saw Jimmy Kilroe, in wheelchair—was not enough room for both so I told him to go first, and he would have none of that, insisting we go first….as we got to out seats Best Pal was in the winners circle, in a retirement ceremony….a month later Jimmy Kilroe passed away and not much later Best Pal passed away, two California legends!
Express Train totes 124 lbs, giving up to 8lbs to his competition…..he stands out in that field, am guessing Mr Kilroe would’ve saddled him with a little more lead than 124.
Regarding the draw for the San Felipe today I noticed that Rockefeller is not only listed as possible for this race but also listed as possible for the Gotham in NY.
He must be going to New York because he’s not entered in The San Felipe. BB has Doppelganger & Armagnac in The San Felipe. If BB does in fact send Rockefeller to NY, it could mean that he likes one of his 2 in The San Felipe to win. Probably Doppelganger. I think that he outworked Newgrange. But, after The Rebel, maybe that doesn’t mean much.
Can Forbidden Kingdom take them wire-to-wire again? BB & Doug O’Neill both have 2 runners in the race and I’m sure that they will try to not let that happen.
What’s going on with Messier? He’s not among the probables for The San Felipe and I don’t see that he has been working.
He worked this a.m. Four furlongs in 48.60.
I just saw that. According to Jay Privman, Messier is bypassing The San Felipe and will train up to The Santa Anita Derby in April. The 9th I think. Adare Manor worked 59.4 and is ready to run somewhere very soon.
Who’s going to be Messier’s trainer for the Santa Anita Derby? If it’s Baffert…off the Derby trail.
Maybe Steve Haskin will have some ideas about that in tomorrow’s new Derby Rankings. Believe it or not, there is another Kentucky Derby Future Wager the weekend after next(it seems like we have a new one every 2 weeks). If a person likes any of the BB horses, it would be nice to know their status before that.
It’s a bit ridiculous when there is such an ‘influential unknown factor’ that may, or may not come in to play. The Baffert colts are always dangerous whether you like them or not.
Because the FOY and San Felipe are being drawn this evening, the Rankings will be delayed this week. So carry on.
Aye Aye Captain.
Speaking of “Captain”, First Captain had a nice comeback win at Gulfstream yesterday. Dennis’ Moment continues to disappoint despite his trainer telling everybody how great he is doing.
Matthew, the objection was on the 10 Ethereal Road. The chart says that. Last line.
OK my bad…but I saw the race, and Vic said “no change cuz Kabob had zero chance for 3rd”, and watching the race you could see Barber Road fouling Kabob….
Is anyone closely following the 3-year-olds in Japan? I’m thinking that one of them may be a factor this year after the recent success of Japan-based horses. As if handicapping the Derby needs to be more difficult!
These four-SEKIFU (nominated) – GERALDO BAROWS (nominated) – COMBUSTION (not nominated) – DRY STOUT (not nominated)
Geraldo Barows would appear the most capable if any attempt to make the Kentucky Derby.
Looks like the Fukuryu Stakes will determine the leader. Each prep so far has been won by a different horse.
The two Sinister Minister colts might fight it out, whether they are up to a trip for the Kentucky Derby is debatable.
Arigatō! I’ll give them a look.
Talk about a bad beat! I was photod out of 2nd in the Rebel and then had to endure an objection that would had moved Barber Rd. up to 2nd if allowed. Holding a $20 exacta 4-9 and $2 tri 4-9-all. I’m still smarting on that one!
That was a horrible beat.
The objection was on Barber Road, not the 2nd place finisher
RE: FOY, March 5th.
From my perspective, Simplification, Rattle N Roll and Emmanuel are the top three contenders in the FOY. On Saturday, 2-26, all three recorded their final work leading up to the FOY. Those works are as follows:
Emmanuel: worked a bullet 5F in 48.05, 1/32, at PBD.
RNR: worked a fast 5F, in 58.67, 2/41, at GP.
Simplification: after working a bullet 5F, in 58.62 1/42 at GP on 2-19, he had a 5F easy breeze in 1:02.66, at GP.
Judging by their past performances, it would appear that Simplification is the fastest of the three. Providing he breaks well, I would think Castellano will have him on the lead and employ a catch me if you can strategy. Simplification is closely related to Epicenter, same sire (Not This Time) and the same broodmare sire, (Candy Ride). In the Risen Star, Joel Rosario took Epicenter straight to the front and had him geared down in the late stretch drive. I foresee and similar performance by Simplification in the FOY. With respect to Emmanuel, I don’t believe he’s fast enough to keep up with Simplifiation.
However, if Rattle N Roll can manage to stay close to Simplification, he just might run him down at the wire.
I’ll box Simplification and RNR in a very large exacta box.
I’ll use a wait a see approach to identify the final entrants, before making my superfecta wager. I’ll key RNR and Simplification on top in the first two spots, with five others underneath in the 3rd and 4th spots.
More than likely, the first two or three finishers in the FOY, will move on to the Florida Derby.
At any rate, the FOY should be one of the better Derby prep races to date, IMO.
Morning Bill,
An edit is necessary regarding your statement below.
“Emmanuel: worked a bullet 5F in 48.05, 1/32, at PBD.”
It a bit too early for handicapping the FOY for me. Based on your assessment it appears the likely result will be chalky. But one never knows
We all know that a 48-second workout is 4f, not 5f. Another unnecessary “edit” of another person’s comment. But coming from someone who has broken all records for Most Typographical and Grammatical Errors in a single epic post, we must just shake our heads and move on to something of value.
You’re right Facts, my bad. That bullet work was at 4 furlongs. Please excuse.
LOL
Edit to my post on 2-27, commenting on Emmanuel’s bullet work, on 2-26.
It was a 4-furlong work, rather than 5 furlongs. Please excuse.
My current Top 10:
Smile Happy
Classic Causeway
Simplification
Zandon
Epicenter
White Abarrio
Mo Donegal
Rattle N Roll
Zozos
Emmanuel
I assume taht since you didn’t specify in no order. Your top 10 is ranked as displayed.
I find it interesting that you have ranked at #5, Epicenter who defeated your #1 ranked horse in a most emphatic manner. This doesn’t compute for various reasons.
If Smile happy had asserted himself from the 3rd and 4th pace finishers. One cold conclude he was merely 2nd best on the day. But he was fully extended to secure 2nd whilst fighting off a slow last out Optional Claim winner and an entrant who didn’t have the best start.
Thre was no excuse for his defeat. He was training well ahead of the RS. He was ranked at #1 by Stve for the first 5 weeks and is stilled ranked #1 after being out classed by Epicenter.
There is absolutely nothin wrong with ranking SH behind a colt that appears to be in superior shape at the moment.
You’re nothing more than a troll. Even when challenged to engage, you don’t. But you continue to post new but inflammatory and illogical comments and one-time replies…then you go on to something else. Bug off!
Thank goodness I have you to say those things. I’m tired of it.
Leave it to me. 😉
His agenda is for one reason.
Cue Bill rushing for his defense.
Bizarro World!
I’m not here to defend anyone. Coldfacts is quite capable of defending himself.
I for one would like to see an end to this back and forth that seems to permeate this blog. There’s enough hate and discontent in this world, no need to bring it to a horse racing blog.
Peace Brother.
Did you not defend him last weekend?
Eddie F, the word is PEDANTIC is what truly describes him.
Very apt description!
Agreed!
That’s a good looking list.
Thanks, TommyMc. It’s like listing my all-time favorite movies. Changes constantly according to mood. 🙂
The Fountain of Youth Stakes could really impact your Top 10. Mo Donegal looks like a scratch but they may persevere with the post.
Who’s going to run 1 – 4 in the Fountain of Youth?
Hope Mo stays in. I haven’t gotten down to handicapping. These Derby preps are difficult.
I read somewhere that they are drawing next Saturday’s cards at both Gulfstream & Santa Anita tomorrow. I don’t know if that’s true. Apparently, the Stronachs are cooking up some cross-country bets on those Saturday cards.
Yes Gulfstream and Santa Anita are putting up several graded stakes races, an all turf pick five and probably nice weather….
The weather looks good for both tracks. But, it’s only Monday. Things can change. Especially, in Florida. I usually like to concentrate on one track on Saturday, but, I may have to buy 2 Forms and play both tracks this week. Maybe pick out the best 5 or 6 races at each track.
Below is the closing paragraph of my post dedicated to Ethereal Road ahead of the Rebel
“A closer examination of his stride in the lane, indicates, that he displayed far more power than the top 3 finishers in the Southwest. Unless he is a fluke, this colt must be considered a live threat to win the Rebel despite his unfavorable numbers.”
We all review past performances differently. A colt that stumbles at the start, was slowly into stride, trailed by 16L, piloted 5W for its stretch run and wins by 4L eased before the line. Has to be considered way above average even if it was running against stationary opponents. If the final time recorded by Ethereal Road was adjusted for all the incidents. He would have a faster time than New Grange the Southwest winner.
In 2021 a colt sired by Curlin and produced from mare sired by a stallion from the Northern Dancer line was highly regarded. He didn’t break his maiden in the manner of Ethereal Road. He was destroyed in his graded stakes debut by 9L. Many had him as the likely KD winner. Known Agenda finished amongst the also ran in the KD.
Ethereal Road possesses the classic Mr. Prospect /Northern Dancer cross. His maiden win was the most improbably seen since Hence. He suffered a close loss in his graded stakes debut in his first attempt against winners. His last two starts have been ultra-encouraging. I suggest folks keep an open mind regarding this colt.
I didn’t submit a post regarding Un Ojo ahead of the Rebel. I thought about it, but it is unlikely my the positive I saw in the colt would have been well received.
The surface at the Big A is one straight out of the mystical Hell. It’s slow, demanding and energy sapping. If a horse can close willingly at the Big A particularly during Winter. It shouldn’t neve be dismissed on easier surfaces. Greatest Honor was beaten in all his races at the Big A despite running extremely well. He transferred to Gulfstream Park and was an instant winner. The demanding nature of the surface at the Big A contributes to the development of leg strength and is ideal for fatigue resistance. Classy horses that run well on the surface are very dangerous elsewhere.
In reviewing the Wither versus the Remsen. I noticed that the first 6F of the Whiters were about 2 seconds faster than that of the Remsen at the 6F marker. That is 1:14 to 1:16. However, the Remsen was completed 2 seconds faster. Um Ojo had to close from a long way las, chasing fractions that were considered fast by Big A standards. He was full of run despite the demanding nature of the surface. In fact, he was travelling best of all in the final furlong.
From a pedigree perspective. Un Ojo was sired by gone too soon Laoban who sired the ultra-consistent Keepmeinmind. An A P Indy mare with a decent record has the potential to produce a KD prospect. Interestingly. Laoban broke his maiden in the G2 Jim Dandy. His son Keepmeinmimd broke his maiden in the G3 Kentuckey Jockey Club Stakes.
Un Ojo has the tools to be competitive in route races. He was the only one cutting back in distance for the Rebel. His 9F conditioning served him well when it mattered close home. His ML was only 12/1. This suggest he was not viewed as chopped liver. I wouldn’t dismiss this colt. Well, he has given us a 75/1 reason not to.
He ran 2nd one more jump 3rd …
As of now I like messier, Barber Road and Smile Happy, and I like Smile Happy best—but the best three year old for me is Adare Manor the filly! Won’t be running in the Derby, and that’s fine by me the ONLY filly in the Derby that I thought belonged was Winning Colors, who was bigger and faster than the males—in early May.
After what we’ve seen from D. Wayne’s current sensation these last three races, have to believe Adare Manor would have all she could handle against her. Trouble is, we might not see either in the Oaks. Secret Oath might be in the Derby.
I don’t think so….Adare is really nice…..Lukas will probably ruin his filly, he has ruined many.
Althea…never should have been pointed for the Kentucky Derby.
Didn’t she win the Arkansas Derby? I would think a victory such as that would qualify her as a contender. Thirteen races prior to the Derby was probably too much, but she deserved a chance.
Althea was quite fine, feminine while Winning Colors was an Amazon and massive, towering over most of the colts. Althea never recovered from running in the Kentucky Derby.
Before the Derby, was anyone saying that eventual second-choice Althea shouldn’t be entered? She had just destroyed a solid field of colts in Hot Springs.
You have to go back to the time. Genuine Risk (filly) had won the Kentucky Derby in 1980, D. Wayne Lukas was the new ‘wunderkind’ trainer who walked on water, and Alydar was emerging as an important stallion.
Swale appeared to me as the horse to beat…Althea had post No. 1.
I think that we always face two separate evaluations in horse racing. One comes before a race and the other immediately after or much later.
I’m not sure, though, why he entered Life’s Magic in the same Derby. She was fifth in the SA Derby.
You’ve got to be in it, to win it. Two chances are better than one.
Yes, Winning Colors fitted the part in the Kentucky Derby. Then in the Preakness Stakes, tactics by other trainers showed why it’s best to separate the genders in US racing.
Dirt racing takes STRENGTH, females are at a disadvantage vs males on dirt.
Agree, powerful fillies Winning Colors, Zenyatta, Rags to Riches can hold they’re own with the males in a scrap. Watching Rachel Alexandra win the Woodward Stakes was more distressing than glorious for me.
If you ever get the chance, look at the winners circle photo after the Woodford, Jess Jackson holding his fist in the air, Rachel head down to the ground….filly never recovered.
I was there Matthew. I actually brought a couple of female friends, who were knowledgeable equestrians, because they wanted to see the magic filly Rachel Alexandra.
They were disgusted about the unrelenting whipping of Rachel Alexandra during the race and, as you say, saw the contrast of the human fist in the air while an exhausted equine was buckled and beaten. The first thing they said after the race “And you enjoy this?”
One last thing about The Rebel. I just watched the race for the 3rd time. Did Un Ojo snatch the victory or did Ethereal Road “hang”? The D Wayne Lukas horse looked like a certain winner.
Inside plodder won outside hanger lost—between closer looked best to me!
Yes, Barber Road started flashing home just a step too late. There’s your promise for the future.
I agree with the Barber Road assessment. I think as the distances lengthen he will improve. One more big jump and he’d have been right there with the other two, albeit the time of the race was perhaps not as fast as an earlier race that day. That is why we all love this game.
A burst of maturity would be helpful as well. Barber Road appears a little behind most of the other colts. Allez, Barber Road!!
Plodder: someone who moves slowly or more slowly than others.
You do realize that classifying Un Ojo as a plodder, you have by extension relegated all the entrants that finished behind as bigger plodders. Below is an extract from Steve’s overview regarding the #6 ranked New Grange.
“If you thought Newgrange was more of a workmanlike colt and not the brilliant type, he did his best to prove you wrong with a stunning bullet five-furlong work in :58 3/5 in company with Doppelganger, who no doubt helped carry him to such a fast time that was fastest of 17 works at the distance.”
A colt capable of 58+ for 5F had no response to a plodder in the lane. Un Ojo must be a super plodder.
I expect that Newgrange will drop off Steve Haskin’s new Derby Rankings. But, does he get a mention in “the Knocking on the door” section? What about Barber Road? He ran his race and always tries hard. But, he only cost $15,000 and broke his Maiden in a $30,000 Maiden Claiming race. The fact that he is right in the thick of things on the Arkansas Road to The Kentucky Derby is probably a telling sign. I hate to be a Derby snob, but, he lacks a Derby pedigree and probably Derby talent IMO. Did Pinehurst’s performance in The Saudi Derby earn him a spot on Steve’s rankings? We’ll see.
As he should.
Maybe Steve will decide that it’s time for a Derby DOZEN. If Pinehurst makes the 16 or the 12, I’d be very surprised. What did he beat in that non-graded race? Barber is at the mercy of the pace, and he got a slow one yesterday. A Derby winner has to have shown that he can beat a stakes field. It doesn’t get easier in his next race.
No, for sure. I like Barber as well as a few.
Well, Newgrange, Chasing Time, Dash Attack, and Ben Diesal can look for easier targets now, pace or no pace. Lol.
Agreed, never sold on ’em.
I’ve seen comments from both Todd Pletcher and Kenny McPeek that they are afraid of drawing a bad post in next Saturday’s Fountain of Youth which is apparently expected to draw a big field. It makes me wonder why they didn’t consider running in yesterday’s Rebel with it’s $1million purse? Especially, since the Arkansas Road to The Kentucky Derby has come up so soft. Everybody needs points and it’s probably just the “nerves” talking.
The field for the FOY is likely to be large, and if the names floated hold up, by far the most competitive field of potential Derby horses this year. So far the following have been mentioned as likely starters:
Emmanuel
Simplification
Rattle N Roll
Mo Donegal
In Due Time
Howling Time
Giant Game
Galt
A.P.’s Secret
Dean Delivers
Tiz the Bomb
High Oak
Markhamian
Strike Hard
Wow! That looks like a “must watch” race. BTW, I just saw Pete Aiello(the Gulfstream race-caller) interviewed on TVG and he said he likes Mo Donegal & Simplification in The Fountain of Youth.
Mo Donegal for me.
Ms Blacktype
Very doubtful 14 horses will contest the FOY. The following are listed as “possible/probable:
Rattle N Roll
Simplification
Emmanuel
Mo Donegal
A.P.’s Secret
Howling Time
Giant Game
I like Simplification for the win.
Un Ojo earned an 84 BSF for his victory. For comparison, Secret Oath was given a 92 BSF for her victory earlier in the card. Trainer Lukas is considering running in The Derby with her. He said that if he were to go that route, he would run her against the Colts before The Derby. He reminisced that he had done the same with Winning Colors way back in 1988 when she won The Santa Anita Derby before her big Derby victory.
I doubt that we saw The Derby winner running yesterday. No disrespect to Un Ojo. I have nothing but admiration for that Colt. But, what happened at Oaklawn that caused a 75-1 shot to blow up the tote-board? Was it that rain started falling just before the race started? I don’t think so. Personally, I didn’t like Newgrange in the race and even if he would have run better yesterday, he would have been a complete “play against” in The Derby for me. What about the 3 horses that I did use in my multi-race wagers? Taking a harder look at Chasing Time, even though he looked great pulling away in the stretch in his previous race, what was he pulling away from? His odds were 1-2 in that race. So, not much was behind him and he earned only an 81 BSF for that win. Ben Diesel may have “bounced” off that 84 BSF that he ran in The Southwest. He may be a horse that tops out at around 90-92. We’ll see. Dash Attack again started from a tough post position. David Cohen was unable to work out a good trip, dropping back and making a run behind horses. I might give him a look in another 1 mile or a 1 1/16 mile race. But, no chance in The Derby IMO. Bottom line: The Rebel was an ideal situation for us to do like Coldfacts & Matthew W and play a longshot in the race. Great job by those folks.
There are no alternatives, all fillies have to run against the colts in the Derby preps. Points determine who gets in to the Kentucky Derby.
Congratulations to all that came up with Un Ojo. While I didn’t come close to using him, it’s great to see a horse triumph after everything he’d been through with the horrible accident that cost him his eye.
I WAS RIGHT! I knew that Chasing Time could beat Newgrange. LOL
But seriously, I don’t see any of the Rebel runners being a serious factor in the final preps or the Derby.
Country House finished a none threatening 3rd in the AK Deby to Omaha Beach and Improbable. He was not seen as a serious factor in the KD with his 65/1 post time odds. W all know know how that turned out.
I may be mistaken, but this was not anything like the 2019 Arkansas Derby. And CH did not cross the Ky Derby finish line first — and he would not have crossed first even if MaxSec’s interference with other horses hadn’t occurred. Will you have a conversation?
Absolutely no one is going to believe me. I had Un Ojo $10 across the board. I only discovered he won early this morning as I was way form home all night with no cell phone.
I am kicking myself as the Colt I initially like (Ethereal Rad) finished 2nd and I didn’t wager the exacta. Why did I wager this colt.? I revisited his Withers performance. He closed on a surface from hell with a lot of late interest. He ran by my KD dark horse Gilded Age and that was significant.
But the most important reason I took a shot with the colt in the performance of Mo Donegal in the HB and Zandon in the Risen Star. Both colts ran of the surface from hell and returned to perform creditably on easier surfaces.
It takes a lot of strength to close on the Big A surface particularly from far off the pace. I figured the OK Park surface would be much easier to close on and boy did he dig in. My wager returned $1,000+ so I now have KD Prep money for the rest of the season.
Obviously, my disclosure required proof given I never submitted a post about the colt but rather the runner up. See the extract from my settled wagers below below:
us Race Details Bet Details Selections
Won
Oaklawn Park
R11
PLACED 2:22PM – 02/26/2022
$10.00 Win/Place/Show
$30.00 TICKET
$1,066.00 – $1,066.00
WILL PAYS
WIN
PLACE
SHOW
4
Un Ojo
$764.00
$209.00
$93.00
$1,066.00
WON ON
Lost
Great job!
Congratulations, Cold Facts!
I believe you Facts.
I took a hard look at Un Ojo and liked his successive improving Brisnet Speed Figures (50, 72, 77, 82, 86) and his impressive close in the Withers, coming from far back (11th) to finish 2nd, on an off track. His dam side is loaded with class and stamina, with the likes of A.P. Indy (his dam’s sire), Seeking The Gold (his 2nd dams’ sire) and being inbred to Buckpasser.
Unfortunately, I went with my head instead of my heart and remained steadfast with Chasing Time.
I suspect the connections will point Un Ojo to the Arkansas Derby. Why not?
Congratulations Facts, nice score.
Coldfacts: “quite possibly” the greatest handicapper in the history of the sport.
Point Unforgiven
Instead of giving credit where credit is due, you choose sarcasm. Your “point is unforgiven”. 🙁
Bill, you may or may not be aware of the context of my comment. The quotation marks for “quite possibly” are there because of a previous opinion I made regarding Baffert. An opinion which Coldfacts seemed to be quite offended with.
Point Unforgiven
Ambiguity appears to be your forte. Just as a suggestion, you might consider posting your comments in clear, concise terms, thereby avoiding the need by others to decipher your posts.
Have a nice day Point Unforgiven.
lol
Two bullet works prior to the The Rebel were very uncharacteristic for Kenny as preparation for winning during his ongoing concern.
Most importantly Dash Attack also has the superior unnatural ability to accelerate that has yet to be witnessed by the majority. Now he finds himself still further under the radar post the Rebel as he now awaits his next contest and so will market himself the favorable price.
Physically he’s imposing by comparison to most of those in the Rebel and David Cohen continues to redefine a path with each of his trips, more consistent with getting a mile and a quarter from off the pace.
See you at Churchill on May 7th Mr McPeek.
Un Ojo in Rebel – Beyer Speed Figure of 84
Secret Oath in Honeybee – Beyer Speed Figure of 92
According to that BSF, eleven horses regressed in their Rebel start. I think the figure may need revising.
Agreed, Profsdottir. The track rating was actually upgraded mid-card, too. Didn’t look like an easy surface to negotiate.
It sure didn’t.
What a day of upsets, as Lynda said earlier. All three of the top finishes in the Rebel look like good horses who should keep improving.
Did anybody hit with Un Ojo? I saw the TRIFECTA hit over $10K. Switched channels before I saw the payout for the super.
I didn’t bet the race until they were at the gate, and I put $2 across on One Eye! $213! Also a $1 double to a horse that ran out in the 12th, strictly c uz his odds were too high, NOT cuz I thought he’d win! Horse moved WAY UP in his last, and three year olds IMPROVE–he did, again—and maybe he will again!
Congratulations, Matthew! Just think if you’d plunged with $5 or $10.
Thank you but I was not all that confident! Actually I thought Barber Road ran a big race, he looks like he might be tough in the Arkansas Derby!
Yes, Barber Road ran a terrific race, especially as the trainer has advised that the colt is still quite immature, mentally and physically, to most of his opponents. Hopefully, he keeps progressing, distances doesn’t appear any problem to 9f. anyway.
Wow. It doesn’t really matter how much you bet. It’s a great feeling to put down money on a GIANT longshot and see him defeat all of the favorites. Congrats! I bet Chasing Time to win, but I had a very small W/P bet on Ethereal Road “cuz his odds were too high.” LOL. He seemed to be the only true value play.
Great job!
Steve, I think Un Ojo might make for a great subject for a pedigree discussion,and one that will be particularly on point for this website, with four stellar Secretariat daughters (Secrettame, Terlingua, Lady Winborne and Weekend Surprise) in his pedigree.
I’ll bet you can count on that.
Un Ojo could carry the X-Factor large heart gene, which has to originate on the dam side. His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy more than likely was as a carrier of the gene, as was his 2nd dam’s sire, Seeking The Gold. If he’s not a carrier of the large heart gene, he certainly showed a lot of heart during the final stages of that stretch drive. More than likely we’ll see this one-eyed colt in the Arkansas Derby.
Congratulations to the connections, his Rebel Stakes win left a lot of people speechless, including myself. 🙂
Especially the way he did it — gaining the lead, relinquishing it, then regaining it when it counted. Ethereal Road ran a bang-up race, and Barber Road surged at the end. Not sure which horse I’d rank more highly (if I were Steve). Should be an interesting column on Monday.
Huge heart!
He was well beaten half-way down the stretch and then in a few strides he was on equal terms.
Really his odds were way beyond his performance that he showed in the Withers. Nice job for Ricky Courville, his first graded stakes victory.
Rebel was an upset and Lucas may have his Derby shot this year.
Wow!
Wow, Baffert training job on Country Grammer has to be commended. What a huuuge performance. Mandaloun is not a top flight horse and not deserving of any KD result. Pinehurst continues Baffert sweep of 3 year old races. Incredible year so far with results, we will see if the Rebel provides another winner.
u r sad!
Comments such as your’s should be kept to yourself. It’s what makes a decent form turn to crap.
Ignoring obvious? Individual sings same song 24/7. Unreal!
Yes, no, and yes. Baffert should be commended for the job he did with Country Grammer after being off the track for almost nine months….Mandaloun is a top flight horse…period.
And so far Baffert’s horses have the Sham, Southwest, Robert B. Lewis, El Camino Real and now the Saudi Derby with the Rebel on deck.
Opps, forgot the Nashua with Rockefeller.
mandaloun is the 2021 kentucky derby winner….its documented facts….sports are played with rules….when you break the rules you get DQd….grow up and over it
Bravo!
All because he threw a clunker in the desert? You may hate the DQ but Mandaloun does NOT deserve any hate.
He is not an outright Grade 1 winner, both his Grade 1 wins he won by DQ. He is a grade 2 animal, just my opinion. He might go to NYRA and win a Grade 1 but who cares with that circuit.
‘Hero worship’ 24/7.
Jenna, individual has bias agenda.
Well, that’s horse racing for you.
Always expect the unexpected on any given Saturday! 80-1 takes the Saudi Cup.
Emblem Road is a beautifully bred horse (IMHO). Bernardini’s legacy will no doubt be as a broodmare sire.
Very happy for Midnight Bourbon. Assmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds should be so proud of that 3rd place finish.
Congratulations to all the winners of the races.
That was some really great racing today (on all cards).
Have not heard for certain if Channel Cat is OK. Prayers that he is.
Oi!! Please give Country Grammer some credit. Ha ha Bad luck for Tonalist, it would have been a real boost had Country Grammer held on. Good for Midnight Bourbon as well.
Davids, of course I give Country Grammer and Baffert “credit”, I just simply neglected to mention it specifically in my comment (my bad). It is not easy for any trainer to have a horse ready to rock like he did after that long of a layoff and traveling to the other side of the world to race on a different surface. And I misspelled his name (please note I corrected the spelling in this comment).
Even though it was not a win for Tonalist, it will give him a boost on the North American sire’s list.
Not sure what happened to Mishriff and Mandaloun. Mishriff’s jockey said after the race that he was just not himself today and he hopes he is alright. Maybe just not their day, it happens.
Other than the incident with Channel Cat, simply put, it was an enjoyable day.
And just gotta love the passion and joy of the Japanese. 4 wins for their team today, they dominated the turf races. And I think Marche Lorraine did well, 6th place finish!
Midnight Bourbon ran his race and finally beat Mandaloun, but, couldn’t beat the “house horse” or Country Grammer. Rosario had him in a great spot and looked the winner in the stretch. The way that Country Grammer dug in and fought on in the stretch is hard to believe off the layoff. Frankly, I was wrong. I never thought Country Grammer was this good. When BB sends them out, they are ready to run.
Midnight Bourbon bested Mandaloun in the LeComte.
Pleased to see Midnight Bourbon hang in there for third in the Saudi Cup. At last, he’s finished in front of Mandaloun, too. Guess it was too much for that horse to win the Derby and Saudi Cup the same week after all. Congrats to the winner, the unheralded Emblem Road.
Emblem Road.! Kentucky Derby winner Mandaloun no show in the desert. Was backing Midnite Bourbon.
Bob just got that Saudi Derby by a diminishing neck.
Prat somehow got him to the line in front. But, I have to say that I don’t think that Pinehurst looked anything like a Kentucky Derby winner or even a Derby Horse IMO. After the race, BB assistant and Joe Paterno lookalike, Jimmy Barnes, was asked if Pinehurst might be pointed to The UAE Derby in Dubai next. Barnes said that it had been mentioned. I’ll believe it when I see it. Pinehurst’s effort today looked to me like the kind of race that could take him some time to recover from.
The Japanese brought a very strong team to the Saudi races.
Sekifu almost caught him at the wire, just a few more feet and Sekifu would have caught him (IMHO).
Consigliere third.
I had researched each horse in the race and came to the conclusion that Pinehurst was the most likely winner.
I think Sekifu has one more chance (in Japan) to qualify for the KD. Wonder if they will keep him there to run in the UAE Derby on March 26. For that matter will all three run in UAE Derby.
Consigliere won the Hyacinth.
The weather forecast for Oaklawn improved overnight. Snow in the evening. Any rain could hold off until 6pm or 7pm.
Good! Arguably, Chasing Time’s least impressive race was the distant second in the mud.
Why is there so much interest in the transfer status of the KD prospects currently trained by Bob Baffert? Are Bob Baffert’s horses so dominant in the KD to warrant such interest. Should dominance and superiority be measured in number of KD wins. Let’s take a closer look.
1997 – Silver Charm won by HD
1998 – Real Quiet won by 1/2
2002 – War Emblem wo by 4L
2015 – American Pharoah won by 1L
2018 – Justify won by 2 1/2L
2020 – Authentic won by 1 1/4L
2021 – Medina Spirit won by 1/2L
Bob didn’t win a KD from 2003 to 2014. Who was the face of the KD during this period? The face of the KD was in suspense awaiting BB’s resumption of winning.
Bob’s KD winner with the widest margin (War Emblem) was not developed by him. But was rather a purchase and transfer to his barn shortly before the 2002 KD.
Of the 6 KD winners that were developed exclusively by Bob. The biggest win margin is 2 1/2L.
His average win margin with War Emblem included is just under 1 1l2L
His average win margin without War Emblem included is just under 1L
Has Bob Baffert’s KD winners been overwhelming the competition warranting a desire for them to be in the KD? An average win margin of < 1L or just under 1 1/2L doesnt reflects dominance and should make his likely prospects must see TV.
Let's view 3 KD winners that dominated the competition:
2001 – Monarchos won by 4 1/2L; He ran by a fading Point Given en-route to recording the 2nd fastest KD winning time in the stake's history. Was there an influx of new owners to the trainer who prepared such a winner?
2006 – Barabro won by 6 1/2L. His assigned Equibas figure of 127 is the highest between 1997 and 2021. It's a speed figure that has yet to be equaled or suppressed 15 years later. The highest Equibase figure assigned to a BB trained KD winner during this period was the 116 assigned to Authentic. Was there an influx of new owners to the trainer who prepared such a winner?
2009 – Mine That Bird won by 6 3/4l eased before the line. He ran by post time favorite Poineerof The Nile as if he was glued to the ground en-route to recording the widest margin in the last 24yrs. His assigned Equibas figure of 103 is the lowest between 1997 and 2021. The lowest Equibase figure assigned to a BB trained KD winner during this period was the 109 assigned to American Pharoah.
The 3 impressive KD winner cited above, left Bob Baffert's entrants trailing in their wake. Some trainers if lucky, get one shot at winning the KD and a few have produced winners to which none of Bob Baffert winner cannot be compared.
Given the win margins that Bob Baffert's KD winners have recorded. Is he and his horses significantly better than the competition? The answer is No. Given that he has been able to attract top bloodstock but has been winning by miniscule margins. His 7 KD wins is not a prudent measured for superiority and /or the face of the sport.
There is a tendency to elevate some folks to celebrity status without the examination relevant cold facts. Yes! Bob has 7 KD wins. But how many would other trainers have won if given similar opportunities?
They’re 20-horse fields, g oing 10 furlongs first time and he won seven times, lost another by a nose on the Cal bred….
While American Pharoah only won by one length, I would argue that he was much better than everyone else. Looking back, remember that BB was really racing against the clock to get Pharoah ready for the Derby. He had been slowed by a minor injury that caused his withdrawal from The BC Juvenile the previous Fall. In The Derby, Victor Espinoza had to really go to work on American Pharoah in the stretch to get him home on top. I will always believe that BB ran Pharoah as a “short horse” in that Derby. But, that Derby run got him “legged up” for the next 2 legs of his Triple Crown. We all know that Pharoah blew away his rivals in The Preakness and The Belmont. Before you come back at me about his upset in The Travers, remember that BB didn’t want to run in that race. American Pharoah only ran in The Travers because his owners wanted him to run. That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it.
Obsession!
I think the word PEDANTIC applies!
Bob is picking them, there are other horsemen at the auctions! Bob has sugar daddies so do some other trainers, he is making his own “luck”.
His ‘luck’ is running low!
I couldn’t have been more wrong in the Risen. Yeesh.
Trying to rebound with American Xperiment in the Mine That Bird Derby on Sunday.
All of us are wrong most of the time. Good luck with AX.
Thanks EddieF, I’ve actually decided to take a shot on Ethereal Road instead. Win/Place and big exacta box with Newgrange.
It’s not a list about who is best in Feb its a list about who in Feb looks like will be peaking first Sat in May….
Come on Matt!
The list is revised to some extent each week. This therefore means it performance driven. Smile Happy was deemed in week one to be the best colt based on his resume and the undetermined status of the horses from BB’s barn.
Do not try to spin what the Ranking represent. It is virtually impossible to forecast who will peak effectively in May.
Well stated, Matthew. Nearly all of us understand the Derby Rankings. The posts are meant to inflame and should be ignored.
It is bad enough that you were very willing to offer excuses for your #1 and #2 choices. Worse part is, you were asking the #4 ranked horse for more proof that he deserved to become the new #1 even though he finished the race with the same times as your #1 and #2, and most important of all, he beat your #1 and #2 choices by daylight while finishing geared down. All these show that you are biased and cannot be objective in your ranking.
I know you will delete this post after reading it. That will only prove that I am right.
Calm down Carlos! Also, u r wrong…….as usual!
DRF is offering free PPs for Saturday’s Saudi Cup card(8 races) if anyone is interested. A few of us have commented that while The Rebel is a $1million race, it might not be a $1million field. Well, the same can be said about a whole bunch of races on that Saudi Cup card. Example: ML Favorite Pinehurst in the 6th race, The Saudi Derby, will be running for a $1.5million purse as the only U.S. horse in the field. For those that are curious: Yes, Pinehurst comes into the race with BB’s patented “bullet” 59.1 5-furlong work. But, that was on February 13th. Which brings up the question: What’s Pinehurst been doing for 2 weeks? The good news is that Flavien Prat takes off from his “busy” schedule at Santa Anita to travel half way around the world for the mount.
Talking about that Saudi Cup, there is a total of $31.5million in purse money offered on that 8 race card. That includes a $2million Arabian race.
More good news: they are offering “Omni” bets on all races. Personally, I will stay away from the “Omni” bets. Mainly, because I have no idea what an “Omni” bet is.
LOL. Maybe it’s a bet on the order of finish of all horses in the race. Sounds good to me. Seems so much easier than just betting on a horse to win.
Like Cox horse for win.
I’m guessing Prat traveled there for the mount on Country Grammar, in the $20 million dollar race, but Punehurst is favored, in the $1.5 million race….
Website was down for unexpected updates and whatever needed to be done.
Whew! For a second there I thought this was going to turn into a pay to view site.
The Rebel and The Saudi Cup take the spotlight this week, but, next Saturday could even be better with 3 big 50-point Derby prep races. The San Felipe at Santa Anita, The Gotham at Aqueduct, and The Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. The stars should start coming out in full force. I’m excited to see Rattle N Roll and Mo Donegal. It’s time to start moving forward. I know that some people say that Mo Donegal ran a sneaky good race in The Holy Bull. But, I was disappointed in his race. I saw Irad Ortiz really working on Mo Donegal around the turn without getting much response. In fact, I gave up on him only to see him come running at the end. I think he got 3rd. I want to see my Derby horse be more of a “push button” horse that responds immediately when asked. I hope to see much better from him in The FOY. Kenny McPeek talks like Rattle N Roll is going to be a major Derby force. I’ll want to see a good race from him as well.
THE SAUDI CUP
I harbor no optimisms that any member of the American contingent will emerge the winner. But then I could be experiencing a senior moment in which my faculties are on hiatus. But if I had to select one from the American contingent it would be Art Collector. He has never been defeated over 9F and holds and average time winning time of 1″48+. In addition, his post time prices should be appealing.
I am focussed on the Godolphin pair of Real World and Magny Cours. Yes, this could be an extension of my senior moment as neither has ever won on dirt with 5 combined starts on the surface. Further, Magny Cours is a 7YO. Hey! Age is just a number.
In all seriousness, I think Real World has the tactical speed to stay with the Americans and has the class to get by for a win. The Dark Angel 5YO has an interesting race record (10 starts 6-2-1). His 4 defeats were all recorded on the dirt at Meydan. He was won 5 times on turf and once o All Whether.
His debut was over 10F on AW which won as the 4/5 favorite. After 4 unsuccessful attempts on dirt, he was switched to turf at the Royal Ascot meet and duly illuminated the board at 18/1 in the stiff straight mile at the venue. He has been undefeated on turf since over varying distances that include in 9F & 10F.
He will leave his preferred surface to return to one that has not bourn any winning fruits, to contest the Saudi Cup. Why not take a shot? There is $20M worth of reasons. Despite not wining of dirt. Real World has not been disgraced on the surface. In his 4 dirt starts (2 at 9 1/2F & 2 at 10F) he finished 2nd, 3rd, 3rd & 4th. He is a bigger stronger horse now and probably better equip to handle dirt.
Can Real World be successful retuning to dirt? Well, the 2021 Saudi Cup winner turf specialist Mishriff, had previously finished 2nd in his only dirt start. The 3rd place finisher in the 2020 SC was turf specialist Benbatl. He previously won his only start on dirt at Meydan. It therefore appears that the dirt surface at the King Abdulaziz Racetrack is favorable to turf types.
Magny Cours has a top and bottom dirt pedigree but has been racing on turf. His 3rd place finish to Mystic Guide in the 2021 Dubai World Cup suggests he can be competitive her. If they go too fast, he could close late for an upset win. He trained by the accomplished Andre Fabre..
Hey! Godolphin is on a roll. Why not roll with the operation
Hi Steve
I like what you had to say about In Due Time, (by Not This Time, out of a Curlin mare), and completely agree he’s one to watch moving forward. He earned an impressive Equibase Speed Figure of 100 for that 1-mile, 75K AOC, finishing in 1:35.97, on Feb. 4th.
Not This Time colts are showing up all over the country and are making a lasting impression moving forward on the Derby trail, IMO. The following NTT colts are definitely on my Derby watch list.
1. Simplification
2. Epicenter
3. Chasing Time
4. In Due Time
5. Howling Time
Morning Bill,
Your confident call ahead of the Risen Star regarding Epicenter has left me trying to reconcile, why your support for Rattle and Roll seems to supersede that of the impressive Risen Star winner. I am of the opinion that at this point the colt are miles apart. In fact, the other progenies of NTT cited have a lot of catching up to do as they share a similar gap.
Whilst you were confident of an Epicenter win. I am of the opinion you have not properly recognized how impressive it was. Thus, you post in serious support for Rattle and Roll. Epicenter’s winning time of 1:49.03 achieved whilst eased long before the line is faster than every LA Derby since the distance of that Derby was change from 8 1/2F to 9F in 2010. Subject to correction, By My Standard holds the fastest time (1:49.53) for the LA Derby since the change.
Epicenter’s winning time could have easily been sub 1:49 if he was seriously urged to the line. It was faster than the 3 previous winning times since distance increased and a full second faster than Madaloun’s winning time of 1:50.43. Further, I true 1:48 plus time would compare favorably to the winning times of older horses who contest the New Orleans Classic.
The Not This Time colt could flop next out or not feature in the KD. But after his Risen Star performance he is king for the heap, if only for now. And was certainly king for a day. His performance needs to be acknowledged with the weight he deserves.
Good Day Coldfacts
“Your confident call ahead of the Risen Star regarding Epicenter has left me trying to reconcile, why your support for Rattle N Roll seems to supersede that of the impressive Risen Star winner.”
Evidently, you must have missed my post on February 22nd, when I listed my top Derby contenders, which are as follows,
1. Simplification
2. Epicenter
3. Rattle N Roll
4. Classic Causeway
5. Smile Happy
6. Emmanuel
7. Messier
8. Zandon
9. Newgrange
10. White Abarrio
To be more precise, I consider Simplification at 1A, and Epicenter at 1B. They are half-brothers, (Not This Time), with the same broodmare sire (Candy Ride). I expect an epic performance by Simplification in the FOY on March 5th, and advance to the Florida Derby to secure those 100 points. In the event Simplification falters in the FOY and/or the Fla. Derby, I would then place Epicenter at the top of my Derby contender list. If Rattle N Roll can replicate his super impressive Breeders’ Futurity performance in the FOY, and beat Simplification and Emmanuel, I would probably place RNR at #2, and move Simplification down, based on how he finishes in the FOY/Fla. Derby.
Keep in mind, Rattle N Roll’s sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer. That breeding cross has produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races, as you are probably aware of.
Good luck Facts.
One of the beauties of this year’s Rebel is that with so many of the big name riders in Saudi Arabia to ride for even bigger money, it leaves some good riders that don’t get many chances at a $1million purse a shot to make some real money. I’ll be rooting for David Cohen, Jon Court, Christian Torres, Reylu Gutierrez, and Ramon Vazquez, all of whom have outside chances, to grab the lion’s share of the purse. I hope it doesn’t lead to any rough riding.
Regarding some of the top jockeys missing from this weekend’s Rebel Stakes, I noticed Steve Asmussen brought in Tyler Gaffalione to replace Rosario, aboard Chasing Time. Currently, Gaffalione is the 2nd leading rider at GP, with 19% wins and 48% in the money.
It certainly appears that Asmussen is going all out to win the Rebel, and secure enough points to make the Derby starting gate.
When all is said and done, Not This Time could have 3, or possibly 4 of his offspring make this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Chasing Time could win The Rebel for sure. He will definitely be on my tickets.
For the Rebel I am focused on the Wayne Lukas trained Ethereal Road. At a ML of 12/1, he appears to be good value for money. How good is Ethereal Road?
From his PPs it doesn’t appear he possesses a lot of tactical speed or an explosive turnoff foot. His running style is consistent with that of a grinder. His entry in the Rebel off a slowly run MSW must generate the obvious question.
Is Ethereal Road yet another overmatched Wayne Lukas entrant in a graded stake? This has to be a considered a reasonable question, given Wayne Lukas’ recent history. One has to look no further than 2021 to see what can be considered Lukas insanity with an overmatched entrant.
RAM who broke his maiden in a maiden claiming race and followed up with an allowance win, was entered in the 2021 Preakness. His last place finish must have reminded Mr. Lukas he needs to acknowledge that his glory days have passed. RAM was assigned an Equibase figure of 88. for his Allowance win. Interestingly, Ethereal Road was also assigned an 88 for his MSW win. A win for the Quality Road colt doesn’t appear to be on the table.
But in fairness to Mr. Lukas his boldness has paid dividend in the not-too-distant past. In 2018 Bravazo won an Optional Claim off a 10th place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes. He was then entered in the Risen Star and illuminated the board @21/1. The same Bravazo went on to finish 6th in the KD and emerged as the closest finisher to TC winner Justify with 1/2L runner up finish in the Preakness.
On the day Ethereal Road broke his maiden at OK Park over 8 1/2F. Three were 4 other races over the distance. The winners raced in 2nd 3rd and 4th before making their respective winning moves. Ethereal Road closed from 12th and 16L behind the leader. It was an improbable win.
How does one calculate how much his winning time of 1:46.82 should be adjusted for stumbling at the start, being slowly into stride and being eased 20m before the line? He must have lost several seconds at the start and several whilst being eased approaching the line. I contend with a clean break and not being eased before the line; Ethereal Road would have recorded the fastest time for the five 8 1/2F contested on 1/29/2022.
A close examination of his stride in the lane, indicates, that he displayed far more power than the top 3 finishers in the Southwest. Unless he is a fluke, this colt must be considered a live threat to win the Rebel despite his unfavorable numbers.
Awesome write up again…Steve.. Any word with horses being moved from Baffert’s barn? It is getting later in the game, and starting to feel that maybe owners do nothing and wait it out to the Preakness.
Wishful hoping!
Nah….according to reports…some owners such as Tom Ryan (SF Racing) or Sol Kumin (Madaket Stables) are just refusing to answer questions….at least until this weekend’s races are over.
Baffert’s lawyer did however file an appeal the same day the KHRC announced their decision and the KHRC has at least five days to answer a “stay” – which is expected in this case considering a medication issue.
….a “stay” is just another word to halt the proceedings.
We’ll see.
I’ll be handicapping the Derby after entries and post position draw during Derby week. I’m not concerned with the status of the horses currently under the care of Baffert. I know who they are and what they’ve accomplished so far. JMHO
Agreed Eddie!
An approach taht should be adopted by all and sundry.
103 fillies early nominated to the Kentucky Oaks. Is it notable none of them are in Baffert’s barn?
I saw that….no Adare Manor this year, but….the value of a filly isn’t quite like a male, where a race like the Kentucky Derby can be worth tens of millions, as a stud—–filly value does not really increase by winning any one race, this year’s Kentucky Oaks will not have Adare Manor vs Echo Zulu.
Someone earlier mentioned Great Escape in Saturday’s 7th race at Oaklawn. It’s one of those Allowance Optional $80k Claimers. Great Escape cost $200k and drew the rail. The field also drew Sky and Sand for Steve Asmussen and McLaren Vale, one of BB’s hyped 3 year olds. McLaren Vale cost $625k and stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth after 2 sprints. He’s a May foal and maybe it’s taking him awhile to come around. Sand and Sky cost $375k and also will be stretching out for the first time after 3 sprints. One of which was a win over the Oaklawn track. Interestingly, McLaren Vale will get Lasix for the first time and trainer BB hits at a whopping 45% with that move.
Forget about McLaren Vale. I just read that he didn’t make the trip to Oaklawn. No reason was given.
Baffert was going to be the big favorite with McLaren Vale but he didnt come. He got claustrophobic on the plane. Interesting to see what Great Escape does
Saturday turns out to be my day for “old-man bets”. But, that’s OK because I am an old geezer. After looking at The Rebel since Monday night and realizing that Newgrange looks best on paper at something like even-money odds, I’ve decided to make an “across the board” bet on Kenny McPeek’s Dash Attack out of the #11 post. I hope he drifts up from his 8-1 ML odds. My thinking is that he didn’t run his best race in The Southwest and he enters The Rebel with a couple of “bullet” 5-furlong works on his tab. Hoping McPeek “tightened the screws”. It’s going to be cold for sure and maybe wet at Oaklawn on Saturday.
Dash Attack’s chances would be greatly enhanced by a wet track. Good luck!
You are right. I have my eye on the forecast. Rain coming in the late afternoon supposedly.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Saturday’s Saudi Cup? I was disappointed that Happy Saver was once again withdrawn from the race. BB sends Country Grammer all the way over there off of almost a 9 month layoff. Love him or hate him, BB has been one of the very best at getting a horse to win off the layoff. To be honest, I wouldn’t like Country Grammer even if he wasn’t coming off such a long layoff. Not against this field. Last year’s winner, Mishriff, comes off a 4-month layoff of his own. American handicappers all seem to be jumping on newly appointed Derby winner Mandaloun. Mandaloun sure looked big and strong when he passed Midnight Bourbon in the stretch last month at Fairgrounds. While Midnight Bourbon seems to have trouble “closing the deal” in his races, don’t you just have a feeling that Top-Jock Joel Rosario will get him home on top one of these days? What better time than in the World’s Richest Race? On the other hand, maybe not. Midnight Bourbon has not won a race since The Lecomte at Fairgrounds on 1-16-21. That’s over a year ago. The list of horses that have beat him during that time are Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit, Rombauer, Essential Quality, and Maxfield(at Churchill where Maxfield ran his best races). In fact, Mandaloun has beaten Midnight Bourbon like a drum. Still, I’m considering a modest “across the board” bet on Midnight Bourbon. Hoping that speed does well on that track. Last year, Charlatan battled Knicks Go into submission before Mishriff came and got them both in the stretch.
Imagine if Mandaloun finishes up the track. Or he could be the first horse to win a $20 million race 5 days after winning the Ky. Derby
That’s right, Steve! Who says there’s no iron horses anymore? Lol
We live in a Real World and are required to keep it real.
Some of us do.
LOL
I agree with Davids comment below: “Going by last year, the King Abdulaziz Racetrack ‘might’ be quite tiring as the US runners last year were caught and then swallowed by Mishriff”.
It is a one turn race, something that the American horses other Art Collector (as far as I have researched) has experience with and winning. The surface is different than what American horses are used to.
If the race plays out as another “speed duel’ or rivalry between Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon then Mishriff, in spite of the outside post draw, could run them both down again. He is as Davids said is the “class” in this race.
Personal opinion is that Mandaloun has the best chance among the American horses to win the race.
As to Country Grammar, yes that is a long layoff.
I saw a photo of Country Grammar Pinehurst when they arrived in Dubai and both were ribby.
Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon were in beautiful condition (if that means anything).
Lynda, hopefully County Grammer and Pineburst are appearing in finer fetal now after rehydration and the elimination of stress from the flight.
They both seem to be settling in nicely. Saw a couple of photos of them on the track today and they were both looking good.
Mr. Baffert does tend to keep his horses on the leaner side.
Good example was Dortmond. One could actually count every rib.
Thoroughbreds are as a rule hard keepers anyway and competition and hard training makes carrying good weight more difficult.
I must admit following The Saudi Cup official site and FB page has been very enjoyable.
Learning new terminology too….they jump from the gate. In US we break from the gate.
Somewhat surprised to learn that that are three female Saudi jockeys. Beautiful phots of them wearing their native dress and on Arabian horses.
Also a Jockey Challenge (7 females and 7 males).
Overall, a very refreshing break from the trials and tribulations going on in American racing.
You’ll notice perfection in ‘changing leads’ is an US obsession, one might even say a cardinal sin if not performed correctly but elsewhere it’s never mentioned.
LOL, yes failure to change leads is considered to be “the kiss of death” for American horses.
just curious as to your opinion of John Gosden.
There are so many truly great European trainers from both sexes, Gosden is one of them. I remember him from the days of Bates Motel and Royal Heroine. He is in his finest hour now. Highly intelligent, knowledgeable on numerous spheres besides racing.
There are so many truly great trainers, both male and female, Gosden is one of them. I remember him from the early 1980s with Bates Motel and Royal Heroine. Gosden is is in his finest hour now, with his son beside him. Highly intelligent, knowledgeable on numerous spheres besides racing. Class.
One more point. This is only the third renewal of this race and therefore not much history to go on.
Maximum Security won the first one in a time of 1:50.59. Mishriff won in 2021 in a time of 1:49.59.
I stand to be corrected of course but I think the purse is still being held pending investigation by the Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia.
Steve, I noticed in your ‘Knocking on the Door’ paragraphs you had mentioned Pinehurst the previous week with some fast workouts (1/68 for 5 and 3/45 for 4) and as I understand Pinehurst will be entered in the Saudi Derby (Grade 3) on Saudi Cup day with Prat aboard.
Confirm?
Yep hes there
Interesting. Not a points race either, is it?
GREAT FILED:
I am always eager to learn what constitute a great field in a horse race. The Risen Star was considered to be a great field.
The major entrants:
Smile Happy – Undefeated, Comprehensive last out KJC stakes winner; (Ranked #1)
Zandon – Highly regarded, Last out runner up in Remsen stakes debut. (Ranked #2)
Papppacap – Graded stakes winner Runner up in BCJ; Last out 3rd in (Lecomte Ranked#15)
Slow Down Andy – Last out winner of Loa Al Futurity; defeated Messier last out (Ranked #8)
Epicenter – Listed stakes winner; Last out runner up in the Lecomte (Ranked #13)
Trafalgar – Last out 4th in Lecomte (unranked)
Six of 10 in the Lecomte field had either won or finished on the board in graded stakes. The field for the 2022 Lecomte would be considered to be great by many.
The winner Epicenter won for fun with his rider looking through his legs for the competition which was nowhere in sight. Two of the leading contenders were fully extended whilst battling a last out Optional Claim Allowance winner to secure 2nd & 3rs.
Great fields are expected to produce close finishes with 2 of 3 entrant separated by the photo finish camera for the win. That didn’t occur in the Lecomte in spite of its completive look on paper.
A field might not appear to be great on paper but can produce a result that supposedly great fields have failed to so do. In the end, it’s not a matter of strong versus weak fields; great fields versus average fields. There are just fields. It would be unreasonable to expect fields to be similarly composed each year. The classification of fields as either great or average therefore immaterial.
Irrespective of the field assembled. The desire is for a competitive and close race. A great race is often not contingent on a perceived great field.
Steve, perhaps you should put a lasso around the handful of colts you feel are equal no.1s at this stage and this form of utilitarianism will give the ‘maximize happiness and well-being for all affected individuals’ reading your columns. One perhaps, more than most. Lol. Then again, you can’t please all the people all the time either. Ha ha Life wasn’t meant to be easy, either and here I’ll stop with the clichés.
As much as I was disappointed that Zandon was defeated in the Risen Star Stakes I felt he performed admirably all things considered. However, unless Zandon places in the top three in the Blue Grass Stakes his chances of getting in the Kentucky Derby would be slim to none. Arguably, the Preakness Stakes would be a better option for Zandon but I think we’re getting into the realms of fantasy here.
Working out who will take part in the 2022 Kentucky Derby field appears as though it’s going to be a slow burn with possibly the Lexington Stakes providing a last chance for quite a few colts. The Rebel Stakes this weekend will provide some lucky owner/trainer a chance to make racing history. Hopefully, Barber Road can step out of his bridesmaid shadow and into the flashing cameras of success. I’m becoming too sentimental these days.
There are too many colts waiting to appear in stakes races to think hard and fast just yet about the future but Steve you are making this trial extremely enthralling. You haven’t convinced me on some but the mind is still willing to be persuaded. Thanks again Steve, the enjoyment you provide is immeasurable.
There always context to consider. If it is asserted that there is no true #1. It then means the party making the assertion is also asserting there is no clear leader of the pack.
Is there are measured way to determine which colt/gelding in the Derby Class of 2020 is the leader of the pack? This isn’t an easy task. But there is a n objective way to do same.
Messier – This colt has won 2 graded stakes and has the highest Beyer figure of the crop.
Cornich – This colt is undefeated and has likewise won 2 graded stakes with both being G1.
Epicenter – Has won a listed and graded stake. In his recent graded stakes win. He accounted for several scalps. Smile Happy (Ranked #1 for 5 weeks); Zandon (Ranked 2 for 5 weeks); Slow Down Andy (Los Al Fur winner who defeated Messier); Pappacap (runner up in BCJ) By defeating Smile Happy.
It can be reasonably asserted that he has also proven to have an edge over Call Me Midnight (Lecomte winner); White Abrraio (Holy Bull winner) and Classic Causeway (Sam Davi winner). The aforementioned 3 colts were comprehensively defeated by Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
Given all the above regarding Epicenter. If there are difficulties assessing which from the crop is #1. The edge at this point has to go to Epicenter. With his win in the Risen Star, he covered 11 prospects included in Steve’s top 16.
EDIT:
Is there a measured way to determine which colt/gelding in the Derby Class of 2022 who can be considered the leader of the pack? This isn’t an easy task. But there is an objective way to do same.
No, I don’t agree. Your assertion/argument may have validity in stating that Epicenter is/was best at the Fairgrounds defeating the No. 1 & 2 colts in the Risen Star Stakes but even then Call Me Midnight has defeated Epicenter at the Fairgrounds. Moreover, Epicenter has a gross advantage in racing at his home ground. Would Epicenter have been as good traveling to another racetrack unfamiliar to him as the Fairgrounds was to Smile Happy and Zandon? Too many questions to predetermine that Epicenter is unquestionably No. 1.
Going through all the positives and negatives of the colts that have run thus far this year, for me, and quite a few others including Steve Haskin, there isn’t really a standout Number 1. at this stage.
Even by your own method above, Messier’s triumphal win this year becomes questionable because Slow Down Andy beat him last year but Slow Down Andy didn’t show up in the Risen Star Stakes, for whatever reason. Again, too many questions to validate one superior colt on the Derby Trail.
Thanks David. As far as points you are right about Zandon. If he doesnt finish in the money he shouldnt be in the Derby. But lets remember, with all the points the Baffert horses are eating up and likely will continue to it might not take many points to get in the race.
Excellent point, Steve. BB continues to be the largest elephant in the room. Or maybe a Pooka (in the sense of the Jimmy Stewart movie).
Good point, Steve. Yes, the Baffert colts are like Black Holes swallowing up Derby points then scattering them hither, thither, and yon with no benefit to anyone. How low will the “entry points’ number be due to the effect of the Baffert colt’s success. It’s a strange world these days.
Steve Haskin-
Hello. Enjoyed your analysis in Derby Rankings Week 6. It was another good read. Over the the last few weeks,
I noticed that New York-bred 3-year-olds are competing well at different levels of racing, and, in some cases,
against open company.
The ones that I’ve noticed include Barese, Golden Code, Shipsational, and Un Ojo, as mentioned in Derby Rankings.
There my be others that have gone unnoticed by me, as well.
So has New York State upgraded its breeding program in recent years? Have to admit that in previous years, I did not hold NY State-breds in the highest regard.
But, it seems like the NY group has been on the improve.
7.5 Furlongs
You can never discount New York-breds anymore. Let’s not forget, only two years ago a New York-bred was the big favorite in the Derby and likely would have won it had they run the race in May as always.
It was mentioned somewhere on this thread about another horse regarding race 7’s Allowance Optional claimer at Oaklawn Saturday. I just took a look at the race and the #1, Great Escape beat Epicenter, Call Me Midnight and Giant Game in his maiden victory at Churchill. He looks like a good bet based on that.
Those horses won this year. Great Escape’s victory came last September after which he was beaten almost 20 lengths in the Breeders’ Futurity. He’s been working so we’ll have to see how he bounces back and where they run him.
I noticed also that Great Escape had his 1st work on 1/6 after a couple months off at Oaklawn then 2 days later on 1/8 he had a recorded a workout at Sam Houston. I can’t recall ever seeing a horse have a workout 2 days after one, at a different venue no less.
I watched some replays today. In his last race, Chasing Time beat an over-matched field at 1-2 odds and did it easily. It looked liked he had plenty left in the tank for Saturday’s Rebel Stakes. He takes a big Class hike stepping into his very first Stakes race, the Grade 2 Rebel. I’ve been trying to talk myself into either Ben Diesel or Dash Attack. The Southwest replay showed that Ben Diesel should have won that race. The rail opened up for him, but, he just couldn’t take advantage of it. He actually lugged out and bumped with the tiring pacesetter, Kavod. Dash Attack ran kind of an uninspiring race that day, but, he comes into The Rebel with a couple of bullet 5-furlong workouts since that last race. Could Kenny McPeek have him primed for a peak performance for the $1million race? Dash Attack will have to do it from the #11 gate. I see Newgrange at closer to even-money than his 9-5 morning line odds. It boils down to these 4 horses for me. Another thing about Ben Diesel: he gets 5 lbs from the other three horses. Of course, he got those same 5 lbs from Newgrange in The Southwest and it didn’t do him any good.
It seems like Kenny McPeek’s biggest problem is keeping all his 3-year olds separated. When I see him interviewed, I get the feeling that he likes Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll equally with Tiz A Bomb just a notch below. Steve Haskin probably has a better feel for the McPeek horses through his hard work and connections inside the sport. Anyway, I look forward to seeing Rattle N Roll show us what he’s got in The Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream a week from Saturday.
I’m hoping that Barber Road can go one better this time in the Rebel Stakes. The colt tries his heart out but just misses the win on most occasions.
Stellar Tap is an enigma but maybe, maybe the talent can come true in the Rebel Stakes. I wouldn’t be surprised if he came last as well but as with “Wrongway Feldman” on “Gilligan’s Island” perhaps the ‘winds of change’ can steer Stellar Tap in the right direction this time. Should be a fun race, no matter who wins.
RE: Rebel Stakes
Chasing Time, by Not This Time, out of a Dixie Union mare, could give Newgrange all he can handle. He certainly looked impressive winning a 1-mile 80K OC by 7 3/4 lengths, at OP, on 1-14, in a good time of 1:38 2/5. Listed at 8-1 on the M/L, I believe he’s worth a shot for win consideration. This colt could give Steve Asmussen two legitimate contenders on the Dery trail, the other being Epicenter.
Simplification, another colt sired by Not This Time, is set to show his stuff in the FOY, on March 5th. What are the chances of three Not This Time colts making the Derby starting gate this year? If in fact Chasing Time wins the Rebel, I believe there’s a very good chance that Epicenter, Simplification and Chasing Time make the Derby starting gate.
Also, In Due Time, another Not This Time colt is worth keeping an eye on moving forward, (currently listed at #16 on Derby Rankings: Week 6). Will we see four NTT colts make the starting gate? Time will tell.
Time Will Tell, sounds like a good name for a Not This time foul. 🙂
It’s such a good name that it’s been given to quite a few thoroughbreds in the past few decades.
I’ll be curious to see if they try to go to the front with him. This isnt the greatest field, especially for $1 million
Hey Steve
You’re right about the Rebel not having the greatest field. I believe Asmussen will instruct Gaffalione to have Chasing Time on the lead, or just off of it, and take his speed as far as he can. The same strategy he used with Epicenter in the Risen Star. Just my opinion.
Thats what I think
I’m with you on C-Time, Bill. It was odd that Asmussen cut him back to 6f in December, but he sure looked strong at 1 mile last time. There are six closers in this race and no true front-runner. C-Time will be up there for sure.
Many will think the same, Bill. I expect Chasing Time to go off as second choice behind Newgrange. Those two would make a nice exacta if you have $100 instead of $5 or $10.
Veterinarian scratch ???? Just a thought. If Baffert transfers top KD horses to other trainers and make it to the gate, Churchill Downs might find a way to make a late scratch ??? It seems to me like they will pull any stunt they can think of to keep his horses out of the KD. Thoughts ???
The owners have to do the transfers, not Baffert who like all trainers is a “hired hand” for the most part. Horses get scratched all the time before races for a lot of reasons. What happens next is entirely up to the owners of these colts that have won or placed in these races but have gotten no points for it. I have read these colts will also not be allowed to run in any of the TC races as all 3 tracks are going to ban Bob’s entries. Not sure how accurate that is though but wouldn’t be surprised if true.
By stripping points from the system with Baffert wins it is distorting the final field. Most years winning the Derby puts a big stamp on the awards being handed out at the end of the year. That is not going to be a “given” this year and not saying it always is either.
Yes, correct, Owners do the transfers. My mistake,but Baffert may suggest a trainer or two.
No.
So now that Medina Spirit has been places last, what about Maximum Security?
Mathew – Maximum Security was DQ’d for an infraction during the running of the race. Just being curious…. What exactly is your question regarding?
Disqualifications for medication violations and DQs for race interference are handled in different manners according to the regulations. MaxSec was placed after all of the horses he interfered with. Horses DQed for drugs are always placed last.
Which is my point.
They couldn’t test for it—but trainer was using SOMETHING, people are going to prison over “it”…..Medina was a therapudic overage, Max looks like a CHEAT—and they have the wiretaps….and they have come down on BOB, and I get THAT…..are they saying Servis used it on every horse EXCEPT MAX?
MaxSec tested negative after the Derby. That’s all that matters for the race outcome.
You think? There are wiretaps that pretty much say he was giving an undetectable substance that was helping…he even told his partner in crime he was winning too often! So ….you’re all over Bob B but the prison bound Jason S is “nothing here to see”?…..horse worked 56 second half miles, Bob works his horses against other good horses and he works them hard—but it’s BIG BAD BOB, and “nothing to see here”?
I’m all over Bob B??? 😮 I don’t understand the point you’re trying to make. You think that MaxSec should have a second DQ for the Ky Derby because of the Servis revelations? You must know that the stewards can disqualify only for an in-race infraction or a race-day drug violation.
He works horses 2 hard.
Good point, there is an obvious loophole here. If a person, under the influence of an illegal substance, were to kill another person they would be charged with a drug related crime as well as murder/manslaughter. Not just one charge.
In a series of By Extension scenarios on the Week 5 blog. The one below proved to be correct.
“Since the distance of the Risen Star has been extended to 9F from 81/2F. The winner has not been worse than third shortly after the break. By extension this trend suggests deep, and mid pack closers are at a disadvantage.”
At no time did the other 3 opponents that finished on the board, appeared capable of seriously challenging the winner who appeared to be a gate to wire winner.
ZANDON
“This colt is a star.”
Come on Steve!
You should know better than anyone else not to so bold.
Zndon has recorded 1 win from 3 starts. He has failed to overcome the aversities that confronted him in both his losses. Stars win in spite of adversative. That the qualities they show. He is a nice colt with a significant amount of ability. But I consider it grossly premature for you to make such a declaration. The Chand Brown trained Good Magic won the BCJ as a maiden. That colt displayed more star qualities.
“Can I say here and now there is no true No. 1”
The above was clearly declared to justify Smile Happy retaining his #1 ranking. Obvious questions:
Is there ever a true #1?
Had Smile Happy retained his undefeated record, would have been a true #1
Was there a #1 in weeks 1 through 5?
Isn’t the KD prospect that has recorded the highest speed figure widely considered to be #1
Shouldn’t Epicenter be #1 given he has defeated your #1 for the last 5 weeks, as well as Slow Down Andy who defeated Messier the KD prospect with the highest speed figure? That certainly computes!
Your comment above has to be deemed an overaction to Epicenter’s comprehensive defeat of Smile Happy. In so doing he has proven himself to be #1 despite the spin provided for the defeat of Zandon and Smile Happy.
Messier. No works since winning Feb. 6 Robert B. Lewis (G3). Could skip next round of preps, per Baffert
That’s why I mentioned he likely is heading straight to the Santa Anita Derby.
Great call
Steve, isn’t that odd for a Baffert trained horse? I can’t remember when I last saw a horse miss workouts/preps for him…
He might just want to go straight to the Santa Anita Derby, but who will train him I have no idea
Two and a half weeks since a 15 length blow out win is not at all unusual, to not have worked……7 day intervals YES—-not 7 days after a race, though.
Epicenter’s win in the Risen Star made me wonder if, whatever happens in the Derby, he has a great shot at winning the Belmont. That steady pace up front looked like the way many a Belmont has been won.
Who would’ve thought Race Day would have two of the top 20 derby contenders
Definitely not Spendthrift Farm and that’s for sure!
Davids, totally off topic I know but here I go. The post positions for the Saudi Cup are:
1 – Country Grammer
2 – Aero Trem
3 – Midnight Bourbon
4 – Real World
5 – Emblem Road
6 – Mandaloun
7 – Magny Cours
8 – T O Keynes
9 – Art Collector
10 – Making Miracles
11 – Sealiway
12 – Secret Ambition
13 – Marche Lorraine
14 – Mishriff
Just curious as to your thoughts or for that matter, anyone else on this site.
Have some friends who are liking Marche Lorraineand. Her trainer is not concerned about the PP because this a one turn race.
One thing I applaud about the Japanese, they are not shy about racing their horses frequently.
Country Grammer has not raced since May 2921. This will be his 9th start in his career (he is 5).
The ass’t trainer for Mishriff is not exactly happy with that PP but has confidence that if he gets a clean break and can settle in a good position that he can repeat his win of this race. I find Mishriff to be a very impressive looking horse and he has a “sweet” pedigree (goes back to Secretariat through his dam sire, Raven’s Pass). Last year he won the Saudi Cup and the Sheema Classic (on turf) a month later.
Of the American horses, I think Mandaulon has the best chance to win.
Should be a good race I think if for no other reason than Mandaulon and Midnight Bourbon going head to head again.
Have not yet researched the other entries.
So to cut to the chase here, Mishriff, Mandaulon and Marche Lorraineand are my favorites to win the Dubai Cup.
Correction, May 2021, not 2921 for CG.
Lynda, it’s an absolute riddle. Most of the runners lack present form to guide you. Going by last year, the King Abdulaziz Racetrack ‘might’ be quite tiring as the US runners last year were caught and then swallowed by Mishriff. Ha ha Mishriff, has a dreadful post this year but is the class here.
An upset wouldn’t surprise but I’ll have to go for: Mishriff, Art Collector, and Country Grammer. Should Mishriff win he’ll surpass Winx in prize money won.
Where is Nelson when you need his advice? He is the expert in the Middle East. I will begin ‘channeling’ Nelson in the hope that he responds ‘rapide et intelligent.’ Lol.
Thank you Davids!
Linda in the last 50 years I have not seen five Thoroughbred race horses as beautiful as Mandaloun, white socks not withstanding he is long and balanced, head on of his recent comeback— where he finished up FAST—he changes leads and goes after Midnight Bourbon and does not waver one inch to either side, it would not surprise me if he wins big—
MatthewW, thank you!
From what I have been reading there a lot people are agreement with you that he will win big.
He is indeed a gorgeous horse and as you state, balanced. That is the one thing I look for in any breed of horse, balance.
In my opinion he looks very much like his sire.
Good luck and safe races to all!
Lynda, thanks for posting the post positions for the Saudi Cup. Saw a clip this morning of Midnight Bourbon and he looks dead fit. Would love to see him win, but there is some stiff competition here in addition to the newly crowned Derby winner, Mandaloun.
Ms Blacktype, I watched the video of the American horses arriving in Dubai on “The Saudi Cup” FB page. As the horses were unloaded from the trailer they were no blankets. Several of the American horses really stood out to me, Midnight Bourbon, Mandaloun and Channel Cat.
The Saudi Cup has done an excellent job in promoting the races, the horses and the event. Very much reminds me how The Royal Ascot is promoted each year.
If you have FB and go to “The Saudi Cup” please scroll down and watch the videos of the women in their native culture dress and the Arabians. Just breath taking!
Agree, some stiff competition. The best race horses in the world have been invited to participate and it should be exciting!
Steve, great insight in your column, as usual. It’s obvious that Corniche is not going to make the Derby, unfortunately. So, ignoring for the moment the likely suspension of Baffert by NYRA whenever they make a final decision, let’s assume that Corniche could run in either the Preakness or Belmont. Which race do you see them targeting, and which do you think he’s more suited for, based on pedigree and ability to get the distance after such a long layoff? Care to take a stab at slotting the other leading Baffert colts into either the 2nd or 3rd leg of the Triple Crown?
Corniche would be more of a Preakness horse or thy could go the Woody Stephens, John Nerud, Allen Jerkens route. Watch for Rockefeller and Doppelganger. Im looking for Baffert to have two horses in the Arkansas Derby, especially if McLaren Vale wins his allowance race at Oaklawn Saturday.
Steve Haskin mentions Newgrange’s “bullet” 58.3 workout last Saturday at Santa Anita. We know that BB likes to work his stars fast. Time will tell if it was too fast just 7 days before The Rebel. One thing for sure, BB has made these Oaklawn prep races his personal playground.
I do notice that Newgrange had a 59.2 workout just 6 days before his big win in the Grade 3 Sham on New Year”s Day at Santa Anita. He also had a 47.1 workout just 6 days before his win in The Southwest. So, fast works before a winning race seem to be Newgrange’s calling card.
Hi Steve Another week’s worth of homework! Thank you. Can you find out why the trainer change on Un Ojo from Tony Dutrow to Ricky Courville? Not too familiar with Ricky. Much obliged
Courville was his original trainer down south. Now hes back down south
What are your thoughts on Secret Oath?
Secret Oath has been very impressive visually in her last 2 races. She’s 2 for 2 at Oaklawn. Her trainer knows what to do with a good horse. Yougiri finished 10 lengths in front of her at odds-on in The Golden Rod at Churchill. Her BSF did drop 5 points in her last as she stretched out from a mile to a mile and a sixteenth. She can win on Saturday, but, looking ahead to The Kentucky Oaks, I think that some monsters will be waiting for her. Let’s see if the owner of Adare Manor can find another trainer for her.
Lukas said they are aiming her for the Derby which is why I mention her here via the honeybee than Arkansas Derby
That’s very interesting. I didn’t know that he said that. While the quality of this year’s crop of 3-year olds can’t be truly judged until later in the year, I think that from what I’ve seen so far, there are several Colts that are better than her. But, who am I to question a trainer that has had such great success with 3-year old Fillies.
Sure! He raced LS so much she refused loading into the gate.
LS? Is that Lady’s Secret? Not everyone of us is up on the abbreviations.
Good guess! lol
Well, there’s 1 monster in particular who’ll be odds on waiting beneath the Twin Spires should Secret Oath make the trek, is Echo Zulu. Asmussen Oaks/Derby double anyone?
This week’s Rebel Stakes has a $1million purse. I would have thought that the big purse would have been enough to draw some of the stars of this 3 year old crop. I’m not that excited about Newgrange even though he stands out on numbers. He could win this Saturday. But, maybe Chasing Time or even Ben Diesel & Dash Attack, coming off inside post draws in The Southwest, can step up. Chasing Time really seems to be coming around for Steve Asmussen as he stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth which could be his perfect distance. I wonder why Asmussen ran him in 4 straight sprint races to start his career? With Joel Rosario out of the Country to ride in a $20million race, Asmussen brings in Tyler Gaffalione from Gulfstream to ride.
I know people will question me looking at Ben Diesel. Don’t forget that he was only a half of a length behind White Abarrio in that “magical” Kentucky Jockey Cup that was loaded with “runners”. In his last 2 races, Ben Diesel was breaking from disastrous post positions in big fields. In fact, in his 2 runs at Oaklawn, Ben Diesel has been pushing the inner & outer boundaries of their starting gate. In The Smarty Jones, he caught a sloppy track while breaking from the 13 post in a 13-horse field. Then, in The Southwest, he broke from the rail in a 12-horse field. Not ideal IMO. Everybody knows that Jonny Court prefers to come out of the middle of the starting gate.
I bet Ben Diesel in the Southwest. He ran ok. A good start would be to replace John Court. He’s 61.
Its not a million dollar field. I wrote up Ben Diesel a couple of weeks ago
It makes me wonder what The Arkansas Derby purse will be. I’ve never been there yet, but, something tells me that Oaklawn Park is a Racino. I see Maiden Special Weights on the card with $84,000 purses. BTW, Steve. The work that you continue to put into your Derby Rankings is truly amazing. Thanks.
The Hot Springs track is now a racino. I was there 3 years ago and they were expanding. The money which is being pumped in the racino is why Oaklawn can prop up their purses and also extended their racing season. Arkansas Derby will be the richest prep in the US at $1,250,000 but they still a way to go to the UAE Derby which is US$2 million.
Baffert owns Arkansas preps
I was very surprised that the expected pace pressure in The Risen Star failed to materialize. Epicenter made it look too easy. We all know that Corey Lanerie loves to ride the rail. When he gets through, he looks like a genius. When he doesn’t, he frustrates people. No big deal. I doubt that Smile Happy was going to beat Epicenter given the dream pace advantage that he enjoyed. Smile Happy and Zandon both look like good candidates to make The Derby Superfecta. I think that they will both run even bigger races in their next starts.
Hello Steve. This is a fascinating group of three year olds and an equally fascinating analysis of them. I think that this is finally the year for a closer to win the Derby. There seems to be a large number of really fine horses capable of contesting the early pace. Maybe one of them will drop back a bit and make a big run on the turn and into the stretch, a la I’ll Have Another. Or maybe even a big rally from far back like Orb.
I am so excited to see the Fountain of Youth stakes on March 5, hopefully including Rattle n Roll, Emmanuel, and the unlucky Simplification. I’ll do my best to establish my position on the rail near the finish line. If you hear on the telecast a crazy woman screaming at the top of her lungs, that’s probably me. Ha ha ha!
Lol. i’ll be listening. I would love to put RNR No. 1
Roberta, you are not the only one that is looking forward to the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 5, 2022. However, I must warn you that if I hear a crazy woman screaming for a colt that isn’t one of my favorites, you will be muted!! Ha ha I’ll simply tell my friends that’s ‘Crazy Roberta’ from Tampa Bay she gets overexcited. Lol.
Steve,
I’m grateful for the insight you provide in your columns. I was surprised at the ease in which Epicenter won last week. Looking forward to upcoming prep races.
Thank you Jo anne
Steve, have you kept the Thoro-graph figures of all preps (at 2 and 3) for Derby winners? That would be an interesting study.
I wish I did.
All of these Baffert owners really are going to wait until the last possible minute to get pts aren’t they. Just bizarre to me.
Bizarre?
The owner insisting on going to Fairgrounds with Zandon, while Brown wanted 7 fur 3 weeks earlier….THAT is perplexing, reason enough to be wary of the sleek black colt….
He will be fine.
The horse, yes but…..
If he had run 7f 3 weeks ago he would be No. 1 right now
Yes, it seemed ideal for Zandon but that’s history now. I surmised the Bluegrass Stakes would probably be Zandon’s next race and Steve has confirmed the race above. That’s a big ask, I wish them well, the colt certainly has the talent.
Just by the eye test it LOOKED like Smile Happy is a good 100 lbs bigger than Zandon, but that could just be the dark color of Zandon, making him look smaller…I like Smile Happy, as of now, 2-22-22 the 290th birthday of a man who was fairly good aboard a Thoroughbred, right now Smile Happy is my #1.
290th birthday of George Washington, while waiting for word from Paris that the seven year old war was officially over, Washington and six of his generals were relaxing at a Connecticut farm, where they weighed themselves at a grain scale, and GW was the smallest, at 209 lbs….too heavy to race ride but nearly 30 years prior at age 22 GW had a Thoroughbred shot from under him–twice in one day, fighting for England, against the French.
Where is it that PPs include a horse’s weight in each race? I know I’ve seen it somewhere.
Greyhound races have it….
I’m pretty sure I saw weights in foreign thoroughbred PPs.
Ever seen an intact horse get excited?….it’s a wonder…..I saw Thoroughbred get his rear end checked by the vet, lubed his arms to the elbow and up sprung an Ax handle and two liters of whiney later he’s on the hot walker with a cigarette! Time elapsed 5 seconds! The Spirt of Kings! (dang spell checker is down again!)
I have no response to that.
🙂 😉
Steve, It’s still early, but so far this looks to be a mediocre 3 year old crop. Certainly not as strong as last years. We will see who emerges now that the real preps get underway.
So far i agree
Hi Steve
On Sunday, 2-19, I posted my top ten Derby contenders, nine of which are on your Week 6 Derby Rankings. The main difference is the sequence of our rankings. Based on Epicenter’s super impressive performance in the Risen Star, I predicted a major upgrade from his Week 5 ranking at #13, to possibly as high as #1. Just to be clear, I’m not here to contest your rankings, you make an excellent case (analysis) on all sixteen. I did notice that Not This Time sired 3 colts in your top 16, (Epicenter at #4, Simplification at #7 and In Due Time at $16), which could possibly increase his stud fee down the road.
I don’t have a lot of interest in this weekend’s Rebel Stakes, but the FOY is shaping up to the most competitive Derby prep race to date. After Rattle N Roll’s epic close in the Breeders’ Futurity, I considered him as my top Derby contender, and promptly placed a $100.00 to win wager in a Futures wager, at 34-1. Now, he’ll be facing Simplification and Emmanuel in the FOY, on March 5th. More than likely, the winner of the FOY will be the M/L favorite in the Florida Derby, IMO.
BTW, I’ve got a $100.00 win wager on Simplification in Pool 2, at 43-1, and boxed him with entire field in my $2.00 exacta wagers. In addition, I placed a $50.00 win wager on Emmanuel at 75-1 in a Futures bet back in December.
In other words, I’ve got the three major players in the FOY covered, moving forward on the Derby trail.
With that said, I believe Simplification is the horse to beat in the FOY, which will set up a rematch with White Abarrio in the Florida Derby.
As it stands now, the following are my top 10 Derby colts.
1. Simplification
2. Epicenter
3. RNT
4. Classic Causeway
5. Smile Happy
6. Emmanuel
7. Messier
8. Zandon
9. Newgrange
10. White Abarrio
Can I borrow a few bucks from you?
I’m sorry Steve, I robbed my piggy bank to make those wagers, there’s nothing left in it. 🙂
Typo on #3, should read RNR.
Steve,
You certainty make it difficult for your supporters, particularly me to predict your weekly ranking after each KD prep. I guess it will always be difficult to predict the extent to which gut feelings will supersede cold facts.
When Greatest Honor was elevated to the #1 ranking in 2021. Your comments were as follows:
“It was a bold move putting an unspectacular maiden winner at No. 2 last week and it’s probably a bolder move elevating him to the No. 1 spot over a champion and two-time grade winner, especially when he beat a questionable field that had very little stakes experience”
When you elevated Known Agenda to the #1 ranking in 2021. Your comments were as follows:
“No, this is not a knee-jerk reaction. Everyone thought I had this horse ranked way too high at No. 4, not having accomplished much in stakes company, getting a head-scratching 82 Beyer in his 11-length win last out, and Churchill Downs refusing to put him in the Future Wager field”
The questions you are required to answer is as follows:
Was either Greatest Honor or Known Agenda as impressive in their respective Holly Bull and FL Derby win, as Epicenter was in his Risen Star win?
Was rider of either Greatest Honor or Known Agenda looking through his legs for the competition whilst gearing down either colts?
You made it exceedingly clear that Greatest Honor defeated a questionable field that had very little stakes experience.
Known Agenda’s best opponent in the FL Derby emerge as the unranked last out Allowance winner Soup & Sandwich, for whom the race was specially written and in which he faced either 2 or 3 opponents.
In winning the Risen Star, Epicenter defeated 3 grades stakes winners and a graded stakes runner up. Further, he defeated your #1 & #2 raked colts. If Greatest Honor and Known Agenda were be elevated to #1 with far less credentials. How can you justify not elevating Epicenter to #1 with far more?
Epicenter’s superiority over the competition was clearly evident in the final 1/2F in which he covered under minimal urging whilst his closest opponents were under heavy and sustained urging.
I am not “required” to answer any questions, even from you. Telling me I am required to answer your questions gives you little chance of me ever answering any of your questions, so don’t bother asking them. But thanks for the history lesson and bringing up everything I write. And Greatest Honour and Known Agenda are not on this year’s Derby trail.
Glad you didn’t answer any of his questions. He’s a hit-and-run commenter.
Mr. Haskin, good work! Like Zandon, CC. Wonderful reading!
Thanks Mike
Pushing envelope……. as usual?
CF, same ole same ole.
I would love to know CF’s ROI. I always thought CF was a disease.
Oh, it’s a disease for sure. lol
Hi Steve:
I had a feeling you would keep Smile Happy and Zandon 1 – 2, and was pleased to see you did. I have them ranked 1 – 3 (with Epicenter in the #2 spot) on my personal list. As you said, Epicenter has the racing style that has won many recent Derbies, which is why I ranked him so highly. That said, other horses seem more brilliant and may have more potential. I personally like Simplification quite a lot (my #4). I’m waiting to see Rattle N Roll run this year before I do more than put him in the top 10 or 12. And I haven’t given up on Slow Down Andy — he did finish 6th, which means his numbers won’t be embarrassing. Don’t know about his Brisnet or Thoro-Graph figs for the Los Alamitos, but the Beyer was only 85 for that race. So many good horses (and horses with potential), it’s hard to know where to put them all. That said, time is running out for many on my watch list.
Thanks so much for your expert analysis. It will be fun to see the comments roll in!
Keeping the status quo is a safe play. I was hoping Steve would be daring enough to stir the pot and add a bit of controversy. OK! Maybe week 6 after the first 50 point race there was not enough evidence but I think after the Rebel there could be.
Steve, enjoyed the analysis and will reread and reread again. I agree that there was no reason to drop Smile Happy. Regarding Epicenter, his running style, and his next race: because he won his MSW and the GR Stakes when racing off the flank of the early leader, my guess is that would be the best tactic in a race with more quality early speed than the Risen Star provided. But he won so easily in the Risen Star that I would expect Rosario to try to do the same in the next prep. Of course, lots could happen between now and Derby day, but there are quite a few early-speed types that could make the final preps and the Derby more contentious: Epicenter, Classic Causeway, Messier, White Abarrio, Simplification, Early Voting (interesting about your take on Brown’s plans), and the sprinters Forbidden Kingdom and Charge It.
You expressed concern about Classic Causeway’s TG progression of 5s. I don’t have any experience with those performance figures apart from your own analysis. How is the layoff factored into the evaluation? I take it as a hopeful sign that his Risen Star number was as good as his November number in the KJC.
I meant CC’s Tampa race, not the Risen Star.
Figures wise I’m not as hopeful as you are. I like to see a horse improve his numbers from 2 to 3, not stay the same. The vast majority of 2 year olds have some time off. With maturity and their natural development they should be faster at 3. He hasnt gotten faster since his career debut. I’m not dismissing him, I’m just pointing that out. Still running 5s isnt going to help him catch up to Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll who beat him pretty easily last year. But we’ll see in his next start. You cant go by speed figures all the time. Its just an aspect to him that needed to be mentioned. Now we can move on from that and see how he trains
Yes, I understand that you aren’t dismissing CC. But I’m sure that if he has a much improved TG number in his next (or final) prep, that would be very positive in your view. His Brisnet fig went from an 89 (Oct) to a 94 (Nov), then a 99 in the Davis. Hard not to be impressed by that.
Just saw that Epicenter’s Brisnet was 98, so Smile Happy was probably a couple of points below that. SH’s KJC number in November was 98. I’m not concerned by a very slight regression off the layoff.
Yes very positive
I didn’t get the impression that Charge It was a sprinter.
So far anyway. I don’t think of a one-turn mile race as a route.
With two initial mile races your building stamina/speed; if Charge It was perceived as a sprinter by the trainer running the colt in two consecutive mile races would dull the colt’s brilliant speed to some extent.
I wasn’t implying anything about the trainer’s perceptions — only that he hadn’t yet raced around two turns and could be a pace factor in the final preps and the Derby.
Steve, I’m glad that you are still high on Zandon and have kept him at #2. When I watched the Risen Star and saw his poor break I was hoping he could close strong and get some Derby points which is what he did. He is surely a win contender in the Bluegrass and you can bet that second race off of the layoff will have Zandon primed and ready. Really glad to have Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1. I am glad to here that Tiz The Bomb is targeting the poly track Derby trail races at Turfway. I bet Tiz The Bomb in KDFW2 and maybe he can get some confidence back on polytrack and get his mojo back in time for the KY Derby. The more I watch the replays of Commandperformance in the Champagne and BC Juvenile, the more impressed I am by him. I bet CP at 33-1 in KDFW3. He was charging hard in the stretch chasing Jack Christopher in the Champagne and had a strong gallop out. I like from a wide PP in the BCJ that CP was tactical behind a hot pace set by Corniche and still managed a respectable 4th.I like the idea of a Pletcher soon targeting a MSW race for him which should get him confidence and in the winners circle and prepare him to be a major contender in whichever April 100 point KY Derby prep that Pletcher picks for him. My two favorites are Zandon and Commandperformance and hope both stay healthy and continue improve on their way to their quest of being in the starting gates the first Saturday in May at CD.
I still don’t like the schedule of three consecutive 9f races. That rarely pays off. Barbaro did it, but the first race was on the turf. Zandon is still a major contender, though. Wouldn’t it be cool if the Derby exacta was Zandon / Zozos?
Hi Eddie – Zandon running three consecutive 11/8 races does seem unusual for most derby contenders. He sure is putting a lot of mileage in those legs even though he has only raced three times. Zandon galloped out with the top 2 in the Risen Star so the distance seems fine for him. I like the selection of the Bluegrass as his next start. I am hoping he breaks well next out and possibly can show some tactical speed which will serve him well in the KY Derby. I would love a Z/Z exacta because Zezos is a field horse from KDFW1 and I could cash a winner! I know you had Mandaloun in the Derby last year in a KDFW and it’s a shame that you can’t be paid out for that. That was a good bet by you at good odds.
Thanks, JoeP. Dang thing is that I didn’t consider Mandaloun a top contender after the bad LA Derby effort. I hope the BG will tell us more than we know to date about what type of an early runner that Zandon really is.
Hi Steve , What do you think about the Japan horses COMBUSTION and GERALDO BAROWS ?
The Hyacinth Stakes didnt blow me away. Combustion got a dream trip up the rail. Geraldo put in a good late run and even though he is by Sinister Minister I love his female family for stamina, so I would lean more towards him when the distances stretch out
Yes, I like the way Geraldo was running late. Hopefully we see him run in the Fukuryu.
Did you just curse me out? Lol
Fukuryu… Lol
Fuk uryu… Lol
My only addition to this that Geraldo Barows is nominated for the Triple Crown but Combustion is not…
I have doubts that anyone from Japan will show up this year.