2023 Derby Rankings – Week 6
With one uninspiring Derby prep after another it’s finally time to get some clarity regarding this year’s Derby trail as we await Saturday’s big tripleheader that features the long-awaited debuts of 2-year-old champ Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, top California colt Practical Move in the San Felipe, and a wide-open contentious Gotham Stakes that could produce a new star. So sit back this week and wait for the first real fireworks of the year…we hope. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Feb. 27, 2023 – Week 6
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
Finally makes his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Normally, a good second or third would be encouraging enough, but he has a big class edge, with only a few stakes horses entered, and he should win. I cannot find any flaws in his record, running style, attitude, and pedigree. He’s got it all. What is most interesting about those opening comments is that they were written 10 years ago in Derby Dozen about Forte’s sire Violence, who also was ranked No 1 right from week one. if Forte even comes close to being the horse we saw last year he should be right there at the finish on Saturday. Although Pletcher has several promising 3-year-olds he has decided to go solo with Forte and point the others elsewhere. Usually with a come from behind horse who is much the best like Forte the most obvious way of beating him is to steal the race on the front end and hope he is still a little short coming off a layoff. But he is too versatile to let that happen, having been fairly close to :45 and change opening half-miles, so he does have tactical speed. In fact, he has never been farther back than five lengths at any point in his races whether it’s five furlongs or 1 1/16 miles. He had his final work, going five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
2—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
Although Litigate would be the most logical Pletcher horse to run in the Tampa Bay Derby, having won the Sam F. Davis Stakes over the track, I believe Pletcher thinks too highly of Tapit Trice to run another horse against him, and this certainly looks like the best spot for him. No trainer has taken advantage of Tampa Bay’s 3-year-old program, including maiden and allowance races, more than Pletcher, so why ship this lightly raced colt out of town when the March 11 Tampa Derby gives him the best timing to fit two stakes in before the Kentucky Derby, with four weeks between races. We have seen Tapit Trice outgame a very gutsy horse in Slip Mahoney and we have seen him crush his promising stablemate Shesterkin, putting eight lengths between them in the final furlong. So, he is a fighter who can battle you to the wire and he has the explosive power to leave you far behind in a matter of seconds. As of now we haven’t seen a 3-year-old in Florida with his ability or physical prowess, certainly no one from the Sam Davis Stakes or Holy Bull Stakes. He had a nice useful half-mile breeze in :49 2/5.
3—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
The prolonged wet weather in Southern California has played havoc with not only racing, but training, as Santa Anita shut down the track completely. So the San Felipe horses could do nothing but wait for the track to open for training. Two weeks ago Yakteen had only one Derby horse, and with the exodus from the Baffert barn he now several more to occupy his time. But make no mistake, Practical Move is the horse he developed into a major Derby contender and he will remain number one in the barn. It seems every time I have watched the replay of one of Baffert’s stakes horses I keep running into this guy, and he was the only one to prevent them from going to the winner’s circle. I have mentioned his improvement on the Thoro-Graph numbers and it will be interesting to see if he can take another step forward and become the top California Derby contender. He does have other former Baffert horses, including Hejazi and the steady National Treasure, trying to beat Practical Move in the San Felipe, which has to put him and Practical Move’s owners in a weird position, but the big mystery horses in the field will be the recent impressive maiden winners Geaux Rocket Ride and Skinner.
4—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
One aspect of his victory in the Withers Stakes that adds to his resume is that he was able to come off a big score with first-time Lasix and win even more impressively without Lasix. He has checked off a lot of boxes and this is just another one that may have gone unnoticed. Another stat that is worth repeating is that in four career starts he has won at four different distances at four different racetracks in three different states. What I also love about him is that in his three victories, by margins by 5 1/4 lengths, 3 1/2 lengths, and 5 1/2 lengths, he rallied from fifth and sixth, but had the lead at the eighth pole and then drew off to win with complete authority. Remember, the vast majority of Derby winners had the lead at the eighth pole. So you want to see a come from behind horse be right there with a furlong out and then pull away from the field. He also has run almost identical races at seven furlongs and 1 1/8 miles, making him the quintessential professional. Jorge Villagomez, who broke him, said he was always very laid back and smart and added, “He seemed to improve with every breeze here for me.” Just as he has improved with every start for Cox.
5—Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy)
That’s all we needed on this year’s Derby Trail was another inconclusive race, with a bad track, bad trips and a longshot winner. The biggest take from the Rebel Stakes was the terrific race this colt ran. This is a horse who was racing for a new trainer, traveling cross-country for the first time, and running in the slop for the first time. Despite having been on or just off the lead in all his races, he broke a step slowly and then had Giant Mischief cross over right in his path forcing him to drop near the back of the 11-horse field. So here was a horse who had never been farther back than third at any point of his races and had set the pace in his last starts now racing back in ninth, 11 lengths off the lead after a quarter mile and still in ninth after a half. He was still in ninth and stuck down on the inside heading into the far turn and all the way to the quarter pole. He eased out turning for home and just as he found a seam, with seven horses still in front of him, Bourbon Bash drifted out right into him and Red Route One, rallying on his outside, came in on him, putting the squeeze on him, forcing him to turn his head out and steady out of there just as he was making his run. He quickly got back in stride and was moving powerfully in the finally sixteenth, reaching out with great extension to finish third, beaten 2 1/2 lengths and making up three lengths in the final furlong. This horse has now run big on fast and sloppy tracks and on grass. We know he has front-running speed, setting a :45 2/5 half in the Sham Stakes, and we know he’s a strong, tough colt who can rally from far back and overcome trouble. I wasn’t sure how good this horse is, but I am sure now.
6—Blazing Sevens (Chad Brown, Good Magic – Trophy Girl, by Warrior’s Reward)
Brown could have waited a week and run in the Tampa Bay Derby and avoid a confrontation with Forte, but to his credit he felt this is the best spot for the colt and has enough confidence in him to run him where he belongs, even having to face the champ. Although Forte is expected to win, all you want to see from Blazing Sevens is to be coming on strongly in the final furlong. He didn’t have the best of trips in the Breeders’ Cup and I just want to see what he can do with a clean trip and a clear run, and a solid pace wouldn’t hurt. He turned in a strong final work, going five furlongs in 1:01 3/5, which is a good work over the deeper Payson Park surface. So it looks as if Brown has him just where he wants him. He hasn’t been talked about much, but his 27-1 Future Wager odds are just about what they should, so the public is still giving him some respect. He really hasn’t done anything to give you the impression he is not a serious Derby contender.
7—Verifying (Brad Cox, Justify – Diva Delite, by Repent)
He gets a pass for his fourth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, as he’s already proven he’s a good horse who was never given a chance to run until it was way too late. Breaking from the rail he was able to get a good stalking position behind two longshots, who set a testing half in :46 flat. Unfortunately he was never able to get out, as his stablemate Giant Mischief kept him hemmed in all the way around the turn. Straightening into the stretch, he started to go inside Frosted Departure, but Florent Geroux quickly decided not to risk it and took him out looking for room. Just as he did, Bourbon Bash drifted out badly right in his path and he had to alter course back to the inside where he finally found room. But by then Confidence Game, who had a clean trip the whole way, had gotten the jump on him and was sailing for home with a clear lead, as Red Route One and Reincarnate were rolling out in the middle of track. He closed well enough, but with a final sixteenth in :06 2/5 he was unable to make up any ground and was beaten five lengths. You had to assume he would have been a lot closer if he had room to run at any point. I have no idea how to separate the Rebel horses or have a clue if this race enlightened us in any way considering the track condition and several bad trips.
8—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
I have liked this colt all along and realize he wants to come from behind with a big late run, but over 19 lengths back is overdoing it quite a bit. Yet he still made up 18 of those 19 lengths, even winding up on his wrong lead in the stretch and altering course in the final furlong. To show how fast a pace this was, he likes to run his opening halfs in :49 to :50 and he actually was right in the ballpark being almost 20 lengths back off that :46 half-mile fraction. But before we brand him with being a plodder who comes from the clouds he was only two lengths back at the half in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes when they were crawling along in :50. You never want to see a horse as far back as he was in the Rebel, but give him a lot of credit for making up that much ground. He is another who has run big on dirt, slop, and grass. The only time he has finished off the board in seven career starts was when he had a rough trip in the Street Sense Stakes in the slop and wound up fifth. With his running style he would need a lot of luck in the Derby in much the same way Street Sense, Mine That Bird, and Rich Strike had dream trips coming from the back of the pack. He doesn’t have the ideal running style to win the Derby, but a number of horses have finished in the money from that far back, and occasionally you’ll get a winner.
9—Instant Coffee (Brad Cox, Bolt d’Oro – Follow No One, by Uncle Mo)
I have mentioned my concerns about his path to the Derby, but he sure was flattered by the Rebel result, having beaten Confidence Game by almost eight lengths in the LeComte Stakes. He continues to work forwardly with an easy half in :50 2/5, but obviously is in no hurry with the Louisiana Derby still a long ways off. So there really isn’t much more to say about him, especially his lightly raced 3-year-old campaign, which will send him into the Kentucky Derby with only one race in 14 weeks. I like that Fair Grounds increased the distance of the Louisiana Derby a few years ago because of the six weeks to the Kentucky Derby and you would think that some trainers might want to have a fresher horse, having to go 1`3/16 miles. But the last two years we saw Mandaloun, trained by Cox, and Epicenter, trained by Steve Asmussen, run in all three of Fair Grounds’ Derby preps and run huge at Churchill Downs. This year Cox has elected to pass the Risen Star and give him two months between races and we’ll see how that works out. I do want to repeat that the reason may have been Instant Coffee’s big Thoro-Graph numbers jump from an 8 1/2 to a 2 1/2 in the LeComte. But that is pure speculation. Instant Coffee has the right running style and a good mixture of stamina and speed, and if you feel he is going to be battled tested enough going into the Derby then he looks like a solid contender. He isn’t flashy, but he is steady and always puts in a strong stretch run. Like with so many 3-year-olds this year I am having a hard time getting a strong feel for how good he really is.
10—Confidence Game (Keith Desormeaux, Candy Ride – Eblouissante, by Bernardini)
Yes, I have three horses he defeated ahead of him, but they are all proven stakes horses who didn’t have good trips and I can’t define these four horses based on one eventful race in the slop when he had the best trip of anyone. For now I am going to take a wait and see approach until I get a feel of just who this horse is and how much he has improved. Going into the Rebel Stakes, all we knew about him was that his six races were pretty much up and down. In some races he sat back in fifth, in another he scored a gutsy wire-to-wire victory. Both his wins came at Churchill Downs, he was beaten a total of 18 lengths in his two stakes appearances, he had never run on a sloppy track, and he could win going six furlongs or 1 1/16 miles. We also knew that his best Beyer speed figure was an 83 and his best Thoro-Graph number was a “7,” both mediocre at best. In short we knew very little about him. So, of course in a year like this he makes a big wide run in the Rebel, a horse comes out and brushes him just enough to prevent him from changing leads, and he draws off anyway to win by a length at 18-1. So did this race make him a legitimate Derby contender? I have no idea. His pedigree says he will get better the farther he goes. His dam Eblouissante is a half-sister to the great Zenyatta and in her first five generations there are 12 classic winners who won a total of 21 classics, including three Triple Crown winners, as well as a Handicap Triple Crown winner. What I did like was that he was holding everyone off at the finish and actually re-broke when Red Route One pulled up alongside him on the gallop-out, so perhaps this was his breakout race.
11—Arabian Knight (Tim Yakteen, Uncle Mo – Borealis Night, by Astrology)
Well, they waited long enough, but the L.A. Times finally reported on Sunday that he has been moved to Tim Yakteen’s barn through the Kentucky Derby and will point for the either the Santa Anita Derby or Arkansas Derby. I had taken him off the Rankings until we found out the plans and I’m putting him back this low for now until he returns to the work tab and we can all digest the fact that he will go into the Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts, will have two months between the Southwest Stakes and his next start, and only one race in 14 weeks going into the Derby. And remember, he’s has only three-furlong blowout in the past four weeks, so that is very little activity for a horse with only two lifetime starts. Yes, Justify won the Derby with only three career starts, but he was able to cram his three races into a much shorter time period. I won’t say he can’t do it because he is a very talented colt, but it’s a very perplexing situation trying to figure him out. Whether he can win with this crazy schedule and set of circumstances is another matter. Once he starts working regularly and gets some foundation under him he could move back up in the Rankings.
12—General Jim (Shug McGaughey, Into Mischief – Inspired by Grace, by Curlin)
I thought he might go for the one-turn mile in the Gotham, but McGaughey decided to keep him home and stretch him out to two turns against far better horses, which will tell him exactly what he has as far as a Derby caliber horse. Let’s remember he’s already been two turns, winning both his starts on the grass, and he does have a female family inundated with stamina. I’m not crazy about him drawing the rail coming off a sprint, but hopefully he can work out a trip sitting off horses and getting out in the clear at some point just so we can see if he is comfortable negotiating the two turns against some very classy horses, including the champ and the Champagne winner. I loved his race in the Swale and was impressed with everything I saw, so let’s see if he can take the next big step.
13—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
As blasé as everyone, myself included, has been about the Risen Star Stakes, the race for some reason I can’t explain actually got pretty strong Thoro-Graph numbers, with Angel of Empire going from a 19 to 11 1/4 to 9 1/4 to a stunning 2 1/2, just as Instant Coffee made a huge leap in the LeComte. His came as a big surprise considering how mundane the race looked visually. Even those behind him made big jumps in their Thoro-Graph numbers. So I have no idea now what to make of the race. What else is new? I just cannot figure out this crop of 3-year-olds, mainly deciding who is good and who is not. Will he “bounce” or regress in the Louisiana Derby or maybe they will wait two more weeks to run in his final prep. All we can hope for right now is this weekend’s stakes adding some sanity to the Derby picture.
14—Sun Thunder (Kenny McPeek, Into Mischief – Greenfield d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro)
Like Angel of Fever, his Thoro-Graph number in the Risen Star took off, going from an 11 1/4 to a 10 1/2 to an 8 to a 3 1/2. So, two horses both made monster leaps? Wait a second, how about fourth-place finisher Tapit’s Conquest, who went from a 10 to a 7 to a 6 1/2 to a 3. As we said earlier, these big jumps defied what most everyone saw with their eyes and even the Beyer figures. Thoro-Graph doesn’t throw out numbers like that haphazardly, so is it possible that this race was far better than people think? Just what we need, more contradictions and questions on this year’s Derby trail. Although Sun Thunder took the inside route and was outrun by the winner he rallied from 12th to pull on even terms at the eighth pole, which I loved to see, and it was a big improvement from his fourth in the Southwest, which actually wasn’t that bad a race in the slop against the runaway winner Arabian Knight. What first caught my eye with this colt was the turn of foot he showed in his 6 1/2-length maiden score going a mile. Even though his Beyers haven’t broken a 90, I do like the progression (69, 77, 81, 89). He will run next in the Louisiana Derby, which will be his fifth different distance in five races, so we have progression there as well.
15—Skinner (John Shirreffs, Curlin – Winding Way, by Malibu Moon)
Taking a big shot with him, in good part because of his trainer, who gave me the longest and most detailed report on a horse I have ever been given. Skinner has competed in two Grade 1 stakes as a maiden, which is uncharacteristic of Shirreffs. He did manage a well-beaten third behind Cave Rock in the Del Mar Futurity, but showed little in the American Pharoah Stakes. He dropped back into a maiden race in his 3-year-old debut and was visually impressive, showing great extension to his stride and being perfectly in sync with his rider. When asked to make his run on the far turn he put in a powerful move around horses and drew off with complete authority to win by 3 1/4 lengths in 1:36 3/5 for the mile and coming home his final quarter in about :24 2/5. This is a colt who also gallops out strong in his races. So are we seeing a different horse this year? Said Shirreffs, “We have really worked on him finding his stride in the morning and building repartitions — standing, jogging, and galloping. He Is a strong colt with a great shoulder and hind end. His mind is now adapting to racing and he has matured physically into a solid athlete, knowing where to put his feet for a strong stride. Yesterday (Feb. 23) he really worked well (5f in 1:01) on a very torn up track showing just how strong he is. Hopefully with a little more time he will accept the unexpected.” That was just a small part of his comments, so how can I not put him in the Rankings.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Holy Bull Stakes winner ROCKET CAN turned in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 at Payson Park for the Fountain of Youth Stakes. With him getting his third straight 8 on Thoro-Graph in the Holy Bull and only an 82 Beyer, which was his career high, he has a long way to go to prove he is a legitimate Derby horse. And this is the spot as he takes on much tougher horses. His half-length defeat to Rebel winner Confidence Game in an allowance race moves him up a bit, even though he couldn’t get by him the length of the stretch after pulling on even terms at the quarter pole. For what it’s worth he is improving and the horse who finished second to him in the Holy Bull, Shadow Dragon, looks like a very nice horse. So we’ll just have to see if he can continue improving on Saturday.
Baffert Part Two. Mike Pegram has been with Baffert since the beginning, so considering that CAVE ROCK has not gone to another trainer yet, one can only assume with the colt’s late start that he will stay put with perhaps the Preakness as the target. It makes no sense to rank him at this late date unless something to the contrary is announced and there is actually a plan to get two races in him before the Derby.
As we head into the serious Derby preps, here are several under the radar horses with a lot to prove, but who might be sleepers to keep an eye on. We gave all the positives to be taken from DISARM’S second place finish in his return and we see a big move forward in his next couple of races. He had a lot going against him in that race and was running on well at the end with no chance to catch a good horse who set an easy pace and came home his final two eighths in a rapid :24 1/5 and :24 flat. For him to match those closing fractions off such a long layoff was pretty impressive. His pedigree says he is going to improve as the distances stretch out, but he has to really improve off his “9” Thoro-Graph figure, which is several points slower than his maiden victory. His 84 Beyer figure also was slower than his maiden victory. But I know the stable is pretty high on him and I did like his last race from a visual standpoint and those fast late fractions. I still believe a big move forward is imminent. It’s just a question of whether it will be big enough and fast enough to make him a serious Derby contender with just one more start.
Two former Baffert horses turned over to Tim Yakteen and nominated to Saturday’s Gotham Stakes are HEJAZI and CARMEL ROAD, although Hejazi is entered in the San Felipe. Carmel Road was awesome breaking his maiden at a mile by almost nine lengths eased up the length of the stretch after setting fractions of :21 4/5 and :45 4/5 . In the Breeders’ Futurity he broke from the disastrous post 14, was hung five-wide into the first turn and just stopped abruptly on the far turn, dropping to the back of the pack. That race was too bad to be true and he rebounded off that dismal showing to finish a good second to Practical Move in the Los Alamitos Futurity, finishing well clear of the others. He has been working as impressively as anyone, with five-furlong woks in :58 4/5, :59 1/5, and :59 flat and a six-furlong drill in 1:11 4/5. I love the way he was moving in all of them, in company and by himself, and if he runs to those works he could jump into the Derby picture on Saturday.
Hejazi began his career with a pair of seconds going 5 1/2 furlongs, actually getting a 100 Beyer figure in his second start. Those were big efforts considering he is bred for stamina. In an audacious move, Baffert, despite having Cave Rock and National Treasure in the field, threw him into the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes as a maiden and off two short sprints and he ran a solid third behind his two stablemates, while finishing 3 1/4 lengths ahead of the fourth-place finisher. Dropping back into a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race and given Lasix for the first time, he wired his field under a hand ride, getting a 99 Beyer. The runner-up in Hejazi’s maiden score, WORCESTER, is another Baffert horse who can run and is going to be heard from down the road.
One of the new tools in handicapping on the Derby trail is Lasix, which is not allowed in stakes anymore. Let’s take five horses who were considered Derby hopefuls. Corona Bolt, a 6 3/4-length winner with first-time Lasix, came off Lasix in his next start and was beaten 15 1/4 lengths. Cyclone Mischief, a 5 3/4-length winner with first-time Lasix, came off Lasix in his next start and was beaten 11 3/4 lengths. Sun Thunder, a 6 1/2-length winner with first time Lasix, came off Lasix in his next start and was beaten 9 1/4 lengths. Harlocap, a 4 1/2-length winner with second-time Lasix, came off Lasix in his next start and was beaten 9 1/2 lengths. Although Determinedly won an allowance race by only a neck with first-time Lasix, he beat a very strong field, but taken off Lasix in his next start, the Risen Star Stakes, he was beaten 42 lengths. Of course there have been several horses who have run well coming off a victory with Lasix, but it is just something to keep an eye on when handicapping the Derby preps. For instance, three horses I am very high on, Tapit Trice, Disarm, and Kingsbarns, will be coming off Lasix in their next start, as they make their stakes debuts.
Jerome winner LUGAN KNIGHT turned in a sharp five furlong work in :59 4/5 at the Churchill Downs training center followed by an easy five furlongs in 1:02 for Saturday’s Gotham Stakes. With CARMEL ROAD, ARCTIC ARROGANCE, SLIP MAHONEY, and the unbeaten RECRUITER and EYEING CLOVER all possible starters, this could be one of the more interesting races of the year. The hard-knocking Arctic Arrogance should give us a line on Hit Show. Following two narrow defeats in the Remsen and Jerome, in which he was out-battled to the wire, he went into the Withers with blinkers added. He ran his race setting all the pace, but Hit Show ran right by him at the eighth pole to win by 5 1/2 lengths. Eyeing Clover ships in for Brad Cox off two impressive six-furlong races at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds. Slip Mahoney is another Cox-trained colt who is based at Belmont and showed his gameness, dropping a hard-fought battle with Tapit Trice and then winning after another gut-wrenching stretch duel, this time with the Pletcher-trained Crupi. If you watch his last two races you will be coming away with great admiration for this son of Arrogate. We also have the unbeaten Recruiter shipping in from Fair Hill following four straight victories at Monmouth, Laurel, and Parx, the last two in stakes races.
The San Felipe will be headed by proven stakes horses Practical Move, National Treasure, and Chase the Chaos, but one potential breakout star to watch is maiden winner GEAUX ROCKET RIDE. He has had only one six furlong race, and trained by the ultra conservative Dick Mandella, he wouldn’t seem to be a Derby horse. But this is an uncharacteristic leap in class for Mandella. The son of Candy Ride, out of an Uncle Mo mare, was nothing short of brilliant in his first start, winning on the front end by 5 3/4 lengths in a sharp 1:09 2/5. He is coming into the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe off a strong six-furlong work in 1:12 4/5, so we’ll see if he can make the stretch-out against top-class horses with only one sprint under his belt.
Something very similar is happening in Florida for the Fountain of Youth Stakes. If you want to know what confidence in your horse is, just take a look at trainer Gustavo Delgado putting his Good Magic colt MAGE in against the champ Forte as well as the Champagne winner Blazing Sevens off one seven-furlong maiden victory. Granted Mage was brilliant, rushing to the lead and running his opponents into the ground, winning by almost four lengths in a swift 1:22 2/5. If you want to know whether he can stretch out, in just his first two generations are stallions who won three classics (a Kentucky Derby and two Preaknesses) and placed in three classics (two Kentucky Derbys and a Belmont).
Sam F. Davis winner LITIGATE, who should only keep improving the farther he goes, breezed a half in :50 2/5. Pletcher likely will wait for the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby with him, along with his undefeated KINGSBARNS, who has looked great in his two career starts. But going into the Kentucky Derby with only three career starts has not been a formula for success. Litigate’s speed figures in his three starts have been pedestrian without any improvement shown, but that could change once he goes 1 3/16 miles and farther, as his pedigree in inundated with stamina, which doesn’t translate to speed at these shorter distances. But he really needs to improve in his final Derby prep.
If you’re in a forgiving mood, you might want to consider CYCLONE MISCHIEF as a bounce back candidate in the Fountain of Youth following a disappointing performance in the Holy Bull. I like the way he’s been working and he’s shown he has ability. I am going to assume that coming off Lasix in the Holy Bull after a big win in allowance company was not a factor in his subpar effort, and he should be a big price on Saturday to possibly sneak into the exotics.
The late-running DENINGTON, a son of Gun Runner who closed fast to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Fair Grounds last week in his eighth career start, getting a 91 Beyer speed figure, will join his stablemate Sun Thunder in the Louisiana Derby. All eight of his starts have been at a mile or longer. He is inbred three times to Fappiano though his sons Unbridled, Quiet American, and Cryptoclearance.
If there was any Kentucky Derby horse to come out of the Saudi Derby it was the Japanese horse DERMA SOTOGAKE, who finished a fast-closing third and had already earned 20 Derby points. Although he is by the good U.S. sprinter Mind Your Biscuits, who actually has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, his female family is loaded with stamina. His broodmare sire is a son of Sunday Silence and his second dam is by Arc de Triomphe winner Tony Bin. He also is inbred top and bottom to major class and stamina influence Hail to Reason through his sons Stop the Music and Halo. Finally, his third dam is by Wood Memorial winner Dike, who was a close third in the Kentucky Derby and whose sire Herbager is one of the great stamina influences. We’ll see if he comes back in the longer UAE Derby, where he could face Hyacinth Stakes winner PERRIERE, who he defeated with a big late run in the Zennippon Nisai Yushun. Both colts are nominated to the Derby.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Beyers…..
Practical Move 100
Forte 98
FYI….Arabian Knight resumed training Saturday-59.1 (3/71)
Practical Move Los Al Futurity—4th choice wins by three…..Practical Move San Felipe—4th choice wins by three….
Would that be Skinner? LOL
I stood in front of Skinner being saddled, he’s not a tall horse but he’s built, and it looked to me like he needed that prep….field was always bunched, except for Skinner who was 3 lengths last but he came with a nice run, and it’s on to the next prep—if he makes the big race he will get more pace I think Skinner is one of the ones….
Why did Shirreffs jump to two grade 1s after a mediocre debut effort in a MSW?
I….don’t know…..
Congratulations to Stilleto Boy and Kent Desormeaux.
It’s these hard knocking, durable horses that keep this sport alive. I call horses like Stilleto Boy Duracell Bunny horses.
Kent won his third Santa Anita Handicap.
Such a talented jockey. Hope we see more of him.
21 Starts, 4 Wins, 4 Places, 8 Shows
Career Earnings: $1,711,675
Owner: Steve Moger
Trainer: Ed Moger
At 3: 1st Iowa Derby; 2nd Awesome Again S.(G1,SA) 3rd Malibu S.(G1,SA), Shared Belief S.
At 4: 1st Californian S.(G2,SA); 2nd San Antonio S. (G2,SA); 3rd Pegasus World Cup Invitational S.(G1,GP), Santa Anita H.(G1,SA), San Diego H.(G2,Dmr)
At 5: 1st Santa Anita H.(G1,SA); 3rd Pegasus World Cup Invitational S.(G1,GP)
And a fantastic stretch call, by Frank M….
Congrats to those who picked Congruent. I hadn’t looked at that race, but I did just now and Congruent would not have been in my final considerations. Miranda Rights may have been my pick, which might give you an idea of the kind of day I had.
With the Tampa Bay Derby all that’s left of the penultimate round of preps, I’ll offer this half-dozen ranking: 1) Forte, 2) Practical Move, 3) Hit Show, 4) Tapit Trice, 5) Rocket Can, 6) Reincarnate.
Mage and Geaux Rocket Ride were impressive jumping from maiden debut wins to major derby preps. Watch out for them down the line.
Bravo Forte. What a horse. What a pedigree. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode him perfectly.
Hey Terri,
Read the backstory on Forte on 2023 Kentucky Derby Tales from the Crib complete with several photos.
He was an adorable foal, born with floppy ears. Love that little jiggy jog prance he did in the paddock training.
Todd P always has his horses so well conditioned and Forte is no exception,
Hooves crossed that he keeps moving forward and stays sound.
Would have had top 4 called in this race of not for Mage.
Sigh, once again pari-mutual betting voted down by Georgia Senate.
I would expect nothing else from the Georgia State Senate.
For $110K they got a horse who’s won four gr1s, by March 4th…. really 3 1/2, FOY is a prep for a prep, shouldn’t be gr1 in my opinion….I said the same about the San Felipe, which used to be gr1 and has been won by many Derby winners—it’s a prep of a prep….
Other than a few years in the ’80s, the San Felipe has always been a G2. Same with the FOY…only a G1 for a few years, 20-something years ago.
They had 5 Derby winners each, over entire history.
Incorrect. 6 for FOY and 9 for SF (or 10 if you count Medina Spirit).
And that’s just from 1980. (Derby Media Guide)
You should check the list of winners for each 5 each won the KD over its entire history. I didn’t count Authentic.
I was counting winners of those preps only, not others who went on to win the KD.
Ah ha! Well, that’s a horse of a different color. 😉
But that was the point, won those preps, not just participated.
I see. You meant to reply to Matthew’s original comment at the start, not to my reply to Matthew.
OK my bad then someone on radio this AM said Forte just won his 4th gr1…
I’m pleased to say I picked three of the winners of today’s four preps (Forte, Practical Move, and Congruent). Had I placed actual bets on the horses, no doubt the results would have been different.
Ms Blacktype, I’ve been congratulating you in your previous posts but here’s another cheer. Congruent was the surprise of the day for me. Good for you and Nelson, he has kept the faith on Congruent as well.
Thanks, Davids. I have a day like that every once in a blue moon!
Nice selections, I’m impressed Ms Blacktype. Keep it going down the Derby trail.
Thank you, Bill. You do a pretty good job picking horses yourself!
You’re welcome Ms Blacktype
Just out of curiosity, did you pick Congruent because Sonny Leon was in the saddle? He was aboard Rich Strike, the longshot winner of last year’s KD. Whatever the reason, you deserve a big shout out for picking the John Battaglia winner.
Congratulations!
Thanks, Lynda! I feel even better than if I’d actually won money.
Going into Week 7, of the Derby Weekly Rankings, the following are my top 15;
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Practical Move
4) Tapit Trice
5) Arabian Knight
6) Confidence Game
7) Red Route One
8) Angel of Empire
9) Instant Coffee
10) Litigate
11) Two Eagles River
12) Reincarnate
13) Geaux Rocket Ride
14) Sun Thunder
15) Rocket Can
Today, 3-4, Arabian Knight worked 5F in 59.20, 3/71, at SA. I’m not sure where he’s pointed for his next start, but today’s work was quite impressive.
As an added note; 7 of my top 15 are from the Mr. Prospector sire line, and 5 are from the Northern Dancer sire line.
12 out of my top 15 are from those to sire lines. For what that’s worth. 🙂
Forte and Practical Joke are standing tall after this weekend and Tapit Trice will also confirm his strong stance after overpowering a weak (Tampa Bay Derby) field next Saturday. The other ranked horse will have to step up their game …
1. Forte – Northern Dancer
2. Practical Move – Northern Dancer
3. Tapit Trice – Seattle Slew/A.P. Indy
4. Instant Coffee- Northern Dancer
5. Hit Show- Mr. Prospector
6. Reincarnate- Mr. Prospector
7. Confidence Game – Mr. Prospector
8. Angel of Empire – Mr. Prospector
9. Red Route One – Mr. Prospector
10. Kingsbarns – Caro
11. Litigate-Hail to Reason
12. Sun Thunder – Northern Dancer
13. Rocket Can-Northern Dancer
14. Verifying – Northern Dancer
15. Geaux Rocket Ride- Mr. Prospector
Blazing Sevens burns out of Top 12 due to poor performance. General Jim furloughed due to FOY scratch and uncertain future.
Rocket Can and Geaux Rocket Ride are propelled into the Top 12.
Arabian Knight worked 5f in 59.20 this morning. Guessing that Steve keeps him in the dozen.
Gen. Jim in mix.
It was an exciting day at Gulfstream with an energetic crowd. I think that nearly everyone came to see Forte. They weren’t disappointed. One of my girlfriends who rarely comes along to the track is a big Star Wars fan, so of course she goes and bets $2 across on Dorth Vader. I didn’t dissuade her or encourage her. Dorth Vader paid her $95.40, $36.20, $11.80. I think that I was more excited at the finish than she was. Not sure that she knew the filly won until I started screaming.
Got home and read that Practical Move won the San Felipe. I am overjoyed. Will watch the replay as soon as I wind it down.
Roberta, please take your friend to Tampa Bay next Saturday and ask her to bet on Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby. Ha ha Sounds like you and your friends had a fabulous time. I was disappointed with Charge It, on the internet he looked subdued and ran similarly to the way he ran in the Florida Derby. Sometimes the second time back from a long break they don’t perform up to expectations.
Ha ha! Yes, Davids, that might be a good strategy. I didn’t notice anything off with Charge It. He looked good to me in the post parade. He ran well considering the winner was in top form with two big wins at Gulfstream.
I’m hoping that Forte and Practical Move hold their form and win the Florida and Santa Anita derbies. And Tapit Trice takes the TB Derby and then the Wood. What a showdown that would be!
Roberta, I read where Pletcher is pointing toward the Blue Grass with Tapit Trice after he runs in the Tampa Bay Derby. In any event, even though I wanted to see Tapit Trice face off against Forte in the FOY, I’m glad Todd has opted to keep them separated for the time being. As much as I like Tapit Trice, I don’t think he would’ve been quite ready to beat Forte who displayed his “head of the class” form yesterday.
Thanks for the scoop, Dewey. Yes, the Blue Grass would work just as well…same day as Wood.
No question Forte #1, but I just watched Practical Move, he moved inside and boy did he fire, on the gallop out he’s 10 clear! Skinner ran huge, as well, he wasn’t dead fit—he will be next time, from looking at the fractions to final time he did very well, I think they are happy— and Tim is relieved! All those Bob horses didn’t hurt Practical Move one bit! I left early, to beat the traffic (also I’m getting old!) but was impressed how Kent took a 9 furlong horse and got a 10 furlong win! He has been riding lights out, a win/place wagering on Kent all meet would be bringing home the groceries! I was telling a friend at the track Jent is a superb basketball player, and in his 50s is a superb rider!
I bet on Hopper. .and mewonders how Bob felt about Mike taking it to Defunded, like he did ….
Also noted Big Cap one/two are based at other tracks, that were not closed for training….
Kent J. Desormeaux just won the Santa Anita Handicap over Proxy and Defunded. Outstanding effort …
The Hall of Fame Jockey won the Big Cap. It is a record three times in 3 different decades emulating Pat Day.
Great achievement !
Correction: Victor Espinoza and Bill Shoemaker are the only riders to win the Big Cap at least three decades.
Nelson, have a look at Bill Shoemaker’s record. 11 wins in 4 separate decades. Incredible.
Equibase Speed Figures for the winners of the San Felipe and FOY.
Practical Move, 108
Forte, 106
It will be interesting to see the Beyer figures on both winners.
Regaring the Gotham, John Goggin said it best……”nothing special”
John’s wrong. Slip M. is an improving horse.
Per DRF, 98 for Forte.
Thanks for that 98 Beyer on Forte, which means Practical Move should get a higher figure, possibly as high as 100. We’ll see.
Nailed it!
Congrats to Forte, who won on class alone….looks smallish but the win was visual impressive….looking forward to the Beyers…the winning time is just about in the middle of the last dozen or so runnings of this race and about where I thought it might be considering the times of the day….left off where he began as the two year old champ…will be the favorite going forward until the next preps….how can you not cheer on Mr. Repole and his entourange for his first KD victory?
Congrats to Tom Yakteem with Practical Move….with have to deal with Baffert horses from the vindictive crap from Churchill Downs, Inc. and come away with this victory is something else….wow….the final time is perhaps in the top two-thirds of the last dozen or so San Felipe races run expecially with several inches of rain….a very, very splendid victory.
As for NY’s Gotham….nothing special.
“Crap from Churchill Downs”. lol Whine much?
I’m not sure there will be very many Bob horses, in the Derby…
Bob will have cave rock breathing fire for the Preakness, if Arabian Knight or Reincarnate don’t win the Derby. All those badger horses that lost today should go directly back into his barn.
All the baffert horses that lost today should go directly back into his barn.
Thrilled with the performances of Practical Move and especially Forte. I’d say if everything goes well for him, Forte will win the Derby. Raise Cain also looked good, but that could have been the mud. Glad there’s now some clarity to the Kentucky Derby picture — there are the top two (or three, if you include Arabian Knight) and all the rest.
Would be delighted if Tapit Trice added his name to the mix next week.
For what it’s worth, two of my picks on today’s preps actually won! Just more evidence that I should pick winners are rarely gamble. Let’s see if Congruent can make it 3 out of 4.
Impossible picking winner in March. No one here had Rich S. I’m sure.
My timetable for picking a Derby winner is different from most other folks. I correctly settled on Unbridled after he won the Floriday Derby, and only bailed on Monarchos after he lost the Wood. (I claim him because I suggested him as a pick to my husband at a Kentucky Derby party; he won the pot.) Obviously, the horse has to be in the gate and have racing luck, but I’ve done a lot better with this method in the last 20 years than the previous 20. It helps that I have the Haskins blog and all the commentators to fill me in.
Ok.
Well done, Ms Blacktype, with Congruent in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. You and Nelson have kept the faith while I deserted him. On a day of mainly seconds and a couple of winners it waa a pleasant surprise to see Congruent run away from them at Turfway Park. I thought Aristocracy had a chance but Congruent did the business. Racing, you’re down one minute then up the next.
Forte looked really good in the FOY… he is a very solid 2-year-old champion. Forte will a big Derby favorite if he wins the Florida Derby as it is very likely to happen…!
The two Rockets, Geaux Rocket Ride and Rocket Can, ran good enough to make Steve’s 15.
Nelson, Congruent came through like a freight train. Well done and the same to Ms Blacktype, did you put some money on him?
Unfortunately I could not bet on the Venezuelan combo Sano/Leon yesterday … I had to hurry to attend a party after the Big Cap and completely missed the race … I am not a fan of leaving advance bets … need to see the post parade and final odds!
Anyway, anyone will be exhausted at 7:30 pm after a whole day of watching races starting at 5:00 am (Dubai Super Saturday) …
Nelson, I know the feeling. Ha ha The Tapiture colt, Go Soldier Go, could be interesting in the UAE Derby.
Over the moon! FORTE!!!
Awesome run by Practical Move.
Congrats to all the winners today!
Practical Move is for real moving forward on the Derby trail.
I keyed Hit Show on top of Practical Move, in Derby Futures Pool 3, at 58-1, and in Pool 4, at 83-1, in my exacta wagers.
If Hit Show wins the Derby and Practical Move finishes 2nd, I cash for $20,089.
Now we’ll see if Forte is the man in the FOY.
Forte did not disappoint. His sire, Tapit, has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. Maybe this will be the year.
My bad, Violence is the sire fo Forte. Please excuse.
Hi Bill;
If Practical Move wins the Derby, I will cash for $18.8k; he seems to be a legitimate Derby contender. I started betting him at 90-1 and pressed just last week at 65-1 (Caesar’s). I am guessing he will be much lower odds at Circa and Caesars bext week!
Best of luck!
You could be sitting on a big payoff biggy312. I’m happy for Tim Yakteen, he’s taking a back-seat to Baffert for years.
Hats off to all of Pracitical Move’s connections.
Good luck to you as well, biggy312.
I have Practical Move and the 83-1…also boxed with Forte and all-others—-but nowhere near the size of your wagers, woukd love to see Tim, Millie and Practical Move in the Derby winners circle! .
Besides the 83-1 future odds…Practical Move was fourth choice TODAY….
If Forte disappoints, the new Derby favorite will be PRACTICAL MOVE. Beautiful ride. When the door opened, he burst through. That was a Derby trip. The early pace was Derby-like.
He didn’t. Ha ha If Tapit Trice can win the Tampa Bay Derby in similar fashion it appears it’s these three and the rest. Still early though, anything can happen.
Very true. Lots of racing to come. My Derby horses have been dropping like flies, but my last hope just saved me. Practical Move at 83-1 in KDFW 4. Nice to see a couple of logical finishes today.
Practical Move at 83 -1, very nice. Yes, Simon, Cave Rock should probably also be mentioned but I don’t think switching barns is the best for any colt at this stage.
Proxy losing in the Big ‘Cap just about topped it off for me today. Seconds, seconds, seconds and a few wins.
Skinner looked like he would need one and he did— bunched field they weren’t flying up front Skinner going to win next out!..
Glad for Tim!
Ramon Vasquez is a terrific rider!..
For what it’s worth Mr Fisk has dapples…
Geaux Rocket Ride also has dapples, a sign of top fitness
Just as Lugan Knight was making a big move in the backstretch, the rider had to pull up sharply, and was not a factor.
Another big longshot, Raise Cain, closed like gang busters for the Gotham win.
A WOW performance by Dorth Vader, winning the Davon David Stakes, at 47-1, (GP).
Yes she was, Bill! Red Carpet got cooked on the lead and had nothing left.
Great day ahead. I’m Looking forward to seeing two horses in particular to do some jaw dropping. Hoping Blazzing sevens can give Forte an eyeball and a run by in the FOY. At least making the race interesting at the end. Then the excitement I have been waiting for now for a quite some time, the return of Geaux Rocket Ride! Glad to see his blip on the radar is getting more pronounced Steve. He could be something special to watch. Safe trips for all especially the NY kids running in the mud.
Got up bright and early intent on picking all four winners of the Derby preps today but got sidetracked looking up Recruiter’s pedigree, my pick in the Gotham. (Did anyone know a distant ancestor on his female line is 1886 Derby winner Ben Ali? Thought not.) Here are my picks:
Fountain of Youth — Forte
Gotham — Recruiter (perhaps in boxed exacta with Eyeing Clover)
San Felipe — Practical Move
John Battaglia — Congruent
Good luck and safe trips to all.
Awesome picks today, Ms Blacktype, especially 16-1 Congruent!
I wish I put a few $ down!
Is National Treasure OUT?!…
Yes Matthew… foot problems
The 7th race at GP is a blast from the recent Derby trail past. High Oak, White Abarrio, Weyburn, Collaborate. Weyburn looks really nice in the warmup.
Thanks Roberta for the reporting live…!
Who is bigger between Weyburn and Collaborate? they look massive….
Yes they do! Can’t say which one is bigger after the fact. Ha ha! But they all look huge when they’re 10 ft away from me.
Dance Macabre wins the Herecomesthebride Stakes, Army Mule is going from strength to strength.
Three cheers for Kelsey Danner!
Superfecta P/W wagers for today’s KD prep races;
San Felipe: Key Hejazi on top, with Pracitical Move, Genius Jimmy, Geaux Rocket Ride and Fort Brag underneath.
Gotham: Key Lugan Knight on top, with Transect, Slip Mahoney, Eyeing Clover and Recruiter underneath.
FOY: Key Forte on top, with Shadow Dragon, Blazing Sevens, Mage and Rocket Can underneath.
John Battaglia Memorial: I’ll just watch this race, ( no opinion)
BTW, does anyone out there know why National Treasure was scratched out of the San Felipe?
Thanks
I will watch the Battaglia too but like Gilmore for 1st, 2nd and 3rd with Aristocracy, American Speed, Scoobie Quando, Miranda Rights, and Congruent for the rest of the Trifecta.
Good luck in all your bets today Bill… specially with Shadow Dragon inflating your Super payout.
Thanks Nelson, good luck to you as well.
Yeah, Shadow Dragon’s closing style could put him right there during the stretch run. He has the highest late pace figure in the race at 108.
Bottom line, it’s Forte’s race to lose. Without question, Forte is the class of the field. From my perspective, the only horse in the FOY field that any chance of an upset, is Blazing Sevens. He doesn’t hurt that Rosario will be in the irons, he’s due for a major stakes win. It should be a great race.
65/cloudy Santa Anita, I hope to send out a report from the walking ring, before the San Felipe..last two times I reported from the walking ring I liked the looks of Rock Your World and Medina Spirit, ( but bet on Dream Shake)….but in the Breeders Cup I changed my wager to Vino Rosso, when I saw him….getting a good look is important, this year, only one horse having worked within one week…
National Treasure…scratched
Disappointing news. Apparently It is not something that serious from Tom Ryan’s public statement “He’s a little tender on a quarter, and the horse comes first.” … They expect National Treasure “can recover quickly from the setback”.
Practical Move and Hejazi have it a bit easier now..!
Thanks for the info. He may recover quickly, but not likely quick enough for the Kentucky Derby.
We’re heading out to Gulfstream now. Eight graded stakes races beginning with race 6. Wow! We won’t talk about General Jim. Boo-hoo!
It’s already 86°. As my dear husband used to say, it’s going to be “hotter than a $3 pistol.”
Stay cool, Roberta. We’re expecting 91 here with humidity. Good luck. Webslinger almost got there, could be one of those days.
Thanks! It feels like 91 here.
Causal analysis of today’s preps…
Forte should win on class alone but doesn’t really need to win the FOY…perhaps just a refresher on the way to the Florida Derby.
The Gotham looks like battle between C level Cox horses and previous trained Baffert horses.
The John Battaglia at Turfway tonight might be a battle between D level Cox horses and a previous trained Baffert horse.
The San Felipe might be the most competitive prep today…I look for Hejazi to win.
Lots of heavy hitters in the San Felipe.
Looking for redemption with Hejazi.
From what I gather, due to the recent heavy downfalls in California all of the runners are compromised by lack of works. Considering Bob Baffert is known for working his horses harder than most they may have an edge. Unfortunately, which one of the Yakteen/Baffert colts is the fittest is pure guesswork. Good luck with Hejazi.
Looks like all six of the Baffteen horses missed their final workouts. None of them has worked since Feb 18-20. The non-Baffteen horses had their regular works at SA on Feb 23, except Chase the Chaos, who worked on Feb 25 at Golden Gate. Just one more reason for me to pass on the San Felipe.
…all FIVE
Yes Simon, a race to watch on numerous levels. Fun though.
Bob Baffert has stated that Reincarnate would be his Belmont horse. He sure ran a heck of a race.
I am hoping the promise I saw in National Treasure comes to fruition in the San Felipe.
I was talking to a condo friend about the Derby chances of Practical Move. I said, half joking, that the only knock against him is that his sire AND dam’s sire both ran in the Kentucky Derby and lost. He thought about it for a moment and said, “That’s a weird angle.” Ha ha! Reincarnate and Red Route One share the indignity.
Later I did some research on Equibase for that “angle” going back 50 years. Would anybody care to guess how many Derby winners had sire and dam’s sire that both ran in the Derby and lost? Country House doesn’t count. (Florida Derby winner Maximum Security finished first in the Kentucky Derby, and CH was awarded the win.)
I love Derby history. I love the Derby!!
Roberta, I’ll have a guess at 15. It’s 6:30 am here, Saturday morning, Cairo just won the Patton Stakes in Dundalk in Ireland. One of the European prep races for the Kentucky Derby.
Hi Roberta:
Just using Pedigree Query (which doesn’t give unplaced results) and my memory, I count 9 or 10. I could be completely wrong about whether certain horses (like Bold Bidder and Lt. Stevens) actually ran in the Derby, but they seem logical.
2022 Rich Strike Keen Ice (4?), Smart Strike (unsure if he ran)
2019 Country House Lookin’ at Lucky (2), War Chant 9th
2017 Always Dreaming Bodemeister (2), Uncle Mo did he scratch? Entered
2005 Giacomo Holy Bull (12?), Stop the Music (?)
1992 Lil E Tee At the Threshold (3), For the Moment (?)
1991 Strike the Gold Alydar, Hatchet Man (7th?)
1987 Alysheba Alydar, Lt. Stevens (?)
1980 Genuine Risk Exclusive Native, Gallant Man (2)
1979 Spectacular Bid Bold Bidder, Promised Land
Thanks for answering, Davids and Ms Blacktype. I’m afraid that both of your answers are far from the number that I found. Far as in the 31 lengths between Secretariat and Twice a Prince. The answer is 1 – or 2 if you count Country House, who I said should NOT be counted. Ha ha!
Ms Blacktype has the answer in her list. Which one, boys and girls?
I think it’s Lil E Tee.
Yes! So we know it doesn’t really matter if the sire and/or dam’s sire won the Kentucky Derby. It doesn’t really matter that the sire and/or dam’s sire didn’t get to the Kentucky Derby. But if both of them LOST the Kentucky Derby…
Interesting angle, Roberta. You never know you may have cracked it. Ha ha
I do too! After Roberta confirmed it, but I just saw it now.
Funtastic Again- any reason he’s not running in the Battaglia?? Kind of shocked. He’s not running anywhere but worked 5F today. Very Strange.
Funtastic Again- any reason he’s not running in the Battaglia?? Kind of shocked. He’s not running anywhere but worked 5F today. Strange.
I’m not expecting to see any Derby horses emerge from the Gotham, but it’s a fascinating race from a handicapping perspective. One very intriguing colt is Transect, by Gun Runner out of an AP Indy mare. The second dam is multiple graded stakes winner Madcap Escapade. Is there any reason to think he can’t made a successful transition from AW to dirt?
Simon: Transect caught my eye as well. Derby-worthy pedigree, and I’d love to see a new star break out in one (or more) of Saturday’s prep races.
Ms. Blacktype, I am sure that we’ll be talking about at least one new star by early evening tomorrow.
Simon, Madcap Escapade was a brilliant filly, as was her daughter Mi Sueno. If Transect performs to his pedigree he should run away with the Gotham but that’s paper up against reality. Who knows? I like Recruiter but the post position stinks and the track, conditions are going to play a major part of the outcome. Good luck.
Same to you, Davids. I think Recruiter will be bet below his ML. Tough race – six runners are undefeated.
They’ve sealed the track, not the best.
Hi
I am pulling for the Joseph O’Brien-trained Cash Out (IRE) in tomorrow evening’s Patton Stakes at Dundalk – a European Road to the Kentucky Derby-qualifying race.
Cash Out is by No Nay Never, a stakes winning son of Scat Daddy who was undefeated during his 2-year-old season. He is mainly known for his precocious speed and was a nice second in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint in 2014.
Aidan O’Brien’s Cairo (a Quality Road colt) will go off as the odds-on favorite in the mile stakes race on their all-weather track.
It should be a great weekend for racing on both sides of the Atlantic.
I hope everyone is having a great week and that winter is beginning to fade from view.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Hi Greg.
The Patton Stakes features eight sophomores with three fillies.
Cairo (B.c.3 Quality Road (USA) – Cuff by Galileo, IRE ) is the fastest of them all sporting 2 wins and 2 seconds in 4 starts. He won the Grade 3 Killavullan Stakes last October at Leopardstown. All his starts on turf except for a second in a 7-furlong Listed Stakes at the Dundalk All Weather.
Cairo returns after 4-month layoff which may give some edge to his 3 main challengers.
Your favorite Cash Out shows an upswing in form after loosing to Stormy Entry in a photo finish. Charles E Fipke’s STORMY ENTRY [B.c.3 Point Of Entry (USA) – Stormy Perfection (USA) by Tale Of The Cat (USA)] and Juddmonte’s TIVERTON [B.c.3 Expert Eye (GB) – Ultrasonic (USA) by Mizzen Mast (USA), GB] will be tough as well.
20 points for the winner does not seem to be enough to get a Derby ticket but he could be following with a run in the April 1 Cardinal Condition Stakes at Chelmsford city offering 30 more points.
Enjoy the fantastic weekend of Horse Racing…!
Cairo just won the Patton Stakes.
The Gotham Stakes will be a clash of sprinters. Slip Mahoney got home advantage and two solid mile races on muddy and fast tracks. The son of Arrogate is fast and tough to outduel… Ask the very talented Tapit Trice and Crupi…
Slip Mahoney will be guided by the very capable Trevor McCarthy returning after recovering from an injury suffered last November. Trevor is replacing regular rider Eric Cancel on Slip Mahoney. Eric decided to stick with Jerome winner Lugan Knight.
My intended Trifecta for the Gotham Stakes:
11 Slip Mahoney (5/1)
4 Uncorrelated (10/1), 5 Carmel Road (6/1) , 10 Lugan Knight (6/1), 14 Recruiter (12/1)
4 Uncorrelated (10/1), 5 Carmel Road (6/1), 10 Lugan Knight (6/1), 12 Raise Cain (30/1), 14 Recruiter (12/1)
Nelson
Just to be clear, Dylan Davis was aboard Slip Mahoney in his three career starts, not Eric Cancel.
Dylan Davis opted to remain aboard Lugan Knight, who he rode to victory in the Jerome Stakes.
I believe Lugan Knight is the horse to beat in the Gotham. Just my opinion.
Thanks for the correction Bill. Yes Dylan stays with Lugan Knight over Slip Mahoney.
The mix up came because I deleted a paragraph about Eric Cancel leaving longshot General Banker in favor of the Californian-Stakes Horse Carmel Road …
Good to know some one is proof reading to ensure accuracy…
You’re welcome Nelson
At first, I thought you were just testing to see if anyone was paying attention. 🙂
I agree Lugan Knight looks primed to sit a couple lengths off the speed battle and pounce to the win!..
Nelson, the weather on Saturday in New York is pretty bleak, with rain expected, so anything could happen. I like Recruiter for an upset but his post position is a real drawback. Best of luck.
Thanks Steve. Kind of an unusual pattern, isn’t it? I’m trying to learn more about Thorograph, mainly because I know how fond you are of it, so it MUST be very good!
Last figure wasnt a true one because of the trip he had. might have regressed because of the big jump in his last race.
Yes I was going to post it in the next Rankings. 14…9 3/4…9 3/4….9 3/4….2 3/4….4 1/4
Hi Steve. Any THOROGRAPH numbers on Reincarnate yet? Thanks
14…9 3/4…9 3/4….9 3/4…2 3/4…4 1/4
Morning Line Odds on the San Felipe
1) Chase the Chaos, 2-1
2) National Treasure, 3-1
3) Practical Move, 4-1
4) Bluegrass Go, 50-1
5) Genius Jimmu, 20-1
6) Hejazi, 7/2
7) Geaux Rocket Ride, 5-1
8) Fort Bragg, 5-1
9) Skinner, 5-1
10) Mr. Fisk, 15-1
I’ll go with Hejazi as the likely winner of the San Felipe.
If Genius Jimmy can transfer his turf form to dirt, he’s a live longshot to finish in the money, IMO. All of his works have been on dirt, so it’s not that the dirt surface will be new to him. Granted, turf times are usually a couple of seconds faster than dirt times, but when a horse can run 9 furlongs in 1:46 4/5 on turf, it got my attention.
Edit to read, Chase the Chaos is 12-1 (not 2-1)
I like National Treasure in the San Felipe.
Curious to see how Geaux Rocket Ride does against Practical Move, Hejazi and Skinner …
Mr. Fisk offers good value with Dettori up…!
Bill did you hit that tri in the Rebel? I remember you saying you had Confidence Game on top. Great call.
The morning line odds on the Gotham Stakes has been released, with a few surprises, IMO.
The favorite is Eyeing Clover, at 4-1. The second favorite is Slip Mahoney, at 5-1. The third favorite is Lugan Knight, at 6-1.
After winning the one mile Jerome Stakes, one would think that Lugan Knight would be the logical favorite, (same track, same distance, same rider) which just goes to show you, when handicapping a race, thinking logically can get you in trouble.
I’m not sure who sets the morning line odds at Aqueduct, but he/she must know a lot more than I do. 🙂
The ML is a prediction of post-time odds. It doesn’t always turn out to be correct as such, for various reasons, but it isn’t an evaluation of the relative merits of entries.
I’m aware of what you stated. However, the point I was attempting to make; based on Lugan Knight’s Jermone Stakes win, one would think he would be established as the M/L favorite. The odds have to start with the morning line, from there, it depends on how the general public bets the race.
Okay.
The Saturday SA card morning line is up, except for the San Felipe which “tells” me there may be a prominent scratch….
ML is up at Equibase.
But not the Felipe? Has every race bit the first, a maiden turf sprint…and the San Felipe….
OK there it is….3-1 National Treasure….7/2 Hejazi…4-1 Practical Move….
10 horses Crypto Ride out…which is good. ..
You got it!
National Treasure 3-1, Hejazi 7-2, Practical Move 4-1, Geaux Rocket Ride 5-1
Morning Line Odds on the Fountain of Youth
1) General Jim, 6-1
2) Legacy Isle, 20-1
3) Shadow Dragon, 12-1
4) Forte, 7/5
5) IL Miracolo, 30-1
6) Blazing Sevens, 7/2
7) Mage, 8-1
8) Rocket Can, 8-1
9) Cyclone Mischief, 12-1
10) Dangerous Ride, 30-1
I’ll key Forte on top, with Shadow Dragon, Blazing Sevens, Mage and Rocket Can underneath in my super p/w wager.
I would have included General Jim, but he’s likely to scratch out of the race.
4/3,6,7,8/ 3,6,7,8/ 3,6,7,8
Safe trips to all.
Good luck with your wager, Bill. I’m looking for Rocket Can in an upset of the champ. RC came alive when stretched out to this distance. He’s just a half length from being 3 for 3 at 8.5f, with the only loss coming to Rebel winner Confidence Game (as noted above). With a swift pace in front, his strong late kick could get him past Forte, who may be a bit short off the 4-mo layoff.
Excellent Superfecta Bill … very plausible as usual. Good luck
I am planning on risking 20 bucks in a Super counting on Cyclone Mischief to boost the payout.
4- Forte ,7- Mage/
4- Forte ,7- Mage, 6- Blazing Sevens /
4- Forte , 6- Blazing Sevens, 7- Mage, 9- Cyclone Mischief/
6- Blazing Sevens, 7- Mage, 9- Cyclone Mischief, 8- Rocket Can /
Happy and safe racing to every one this fantastic weekend of racing.
Thanks Nelson, and good luck to you as well.
Mine, is a $2.00 super p/w wager, which will cost $48.00.
With respect to Cyclone Mischief, there appears to be a pattern developing, starting with his maiden win, (1st, 7th, 1st, 7th)
In which case, based on that pattern, he’s due for another win. However, I’ve never been a big fan of Dale Romans, and seriously doubt that pattern will continue in the FOY.
That said, I wish you the best of luck using Cyclone Mischief in your superfecta wager.
Steve, if you talk with Tim Yakteen—I have a perplexing question: Does the four Bob horses in the San Felipe create any stress concerning the Practical Move ownership? Of course if they win on Sat I’m sure that stress won’t exist, but if they lose points because of a couple of his new acquisitions….
I posed the same quesion in my comments. He wont say so but I’m sue there will be stress, especially if they lose points to the Baffert horses.
Matthew W and Bill Dawson,
Americas Best Racing web site has a really good that showcases the best San Felipe races.
Scroll down to videos and you will see video on the left, title is:
“Stars of Yesterday, Best San Felipe Stakes Races”
Some great footage of superstars of the past.
Thanks for the heads up Lynda.
Thank you Lynda! Great article, great to read about some of those horses—One correction: Sunday Silence did not defeat Easy Goer by 3/4, in the Classic, he got there first by a neck..
You are welcome MathewW.
I watched Secretariat’s Gotham last night, found it on you tube.
He ran so effortlessly.
Think he liked to play with other horses, almost teasing them and then just took off…”see ya”. LOL
Fun to watch some of these race replays. Guess whoever creates these lists can make mistakes too, no one is perfect.
Liking Clover in the Gotham
Forte of course in the FOY. Hoping for redemption for Cyclone Mischief and a good race that scores points for Shadow Dragon and Rocket Can.
San Felipe – Gaux Rocket Ride and Skinner though it will most likely be a Yakteen/Baffert trifecta. Sometimes I just like to cheer for the little guy.
Good luck with your bets!
Just watched video and saw close up photo of Forte schooling in the paddock today.
Per Pletcher, “up on his toes and well behaved, just the way we like to see them”.
Major horse crush right now over this horse, LOL.
A full field of 15 are entered in the G3 Gotham Stakes, at Aqueduct, on Saturday.
I’ll go with the Jerome Stakes winner, Lugan Knight, as the likely winner of the Gotham. He checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
With respect to the FOY, how can you go against a colt that has won three G1 races in a row. Unless Forte falls down leaving the starting gate, he’s a lock to win the FOY. I seldom use the term “lock”, however, in this case, I believe it’s warranted.
Remember Game Winner 4 years ago? He was the undefeated champ with three G1s in a row, and he lost to Omaha Beach by a nose at odds of 1-2 in his Rebel debut.
Hmmmm, Bill just put the ultimate jinx on Forte…..”lock to win”!! I believe you also said bet the farm on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl?! Good thing I didn’t have a farm to bet on that one!! LOL
Just hav’n fun with you Bill. Good luck with Forte!
Hey Bruce
Gulity as charged. The Eagles were on the wrong end of some questionable holding calls, especially that last one near the end of the game, IMO.
Dismiss Forte, in the FOY, at your peril.
Good luck Bruce. 🙂
Bruce, “bet the farm” is just a figure of speech, not to be taken literally. Does that get me off the hook? 🙂
Ok I’ll give you a pass on the Eagles….. because I’m with you, refs should have kept the flag in their pockets on that play….problem is sports books don’t have sympathy for bad calls!! LOL
If I can get even money on Forte I’ll bet the farm…….
Hey Bruce
I’ll be shocked if Forte goes off at even money, I’m thinking around 2/5 or 3/5 when the gates open.
BTW, thanks for the pass. 🙂
Mage is the maternal grandson of a freak and he might be one…!
I am going to trust the Trainer and the Jockey on this one.
He is my key horse for every possible bet this Saturday.
If he wins the Fountain of Youth, it would be HISTORIC.
The one thing you are forgetting is maturity as others develop in their three yr old season. Good Magic by Curlin is a prime example of a bloodline that tends to mature in toughness in their 3 yrold season. Forte is a great horse but Lock in his first race back. I’m not so sure. How many BC Juveniles have gone on to win the Derby. Street sense – Nyquist and prior to that it was 30 yrs. So lock I would never use on any race
My earlier concern about General Jim missing a workout was justified. McGaughey was quoted today in DRF:
“He had a little cough and missed a day of training,” McGaughey said in his Gulfstream stable office Wednesday morning. “He’s back training, but I’m not sure whether we’re running. I’ve just been playing it by the day.”
I doubt GJ will be in the FOY. Major disappointment.
NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!
Shug is not having much luck of late. Hopefully, all goes well for General Jim in the near future. I’ve had disappointment after disappointment this year with some of the colts that seemed probable since yearlings. Bad luck, Roberta.
Yeah, it’s just such a shame. But I guess it happens every year.
That’s it Roberta. As you’d know, the US dirt tracks, their sharper turns etc are more impactful on developing horses than the European turf surfaces are.
Yes, I’m sure that’s true. Shug’s Game Change finished last today in an allowance route at Gulfstream. I went there just to see that race. Oh my goodness!
The only way is up from here, Roberta. Shug’s having a really bad run ever since Signator was injured.
Horses bleed, and when people say they want to breed out the bleeders I think that is not possible….Lasix is used to avoid bad bleeds, and when it is allowed, just about every horse runs on it….I just don’t get the whole lasix ban craze! If something can HELP, and is not a performance enhancer—and trainers use it when allowed… what’s the fuss about?
Not every horse on Lasix bleeds, and yes, Lasix does enhance performance for non-bleeding horses. It lightens horses by making them urinate more often, which also makes it easier for trainers to conceal other (often controlled or even illegal) drugs. Before Lasix, trainers drew horses off food and water… Secretariat’s experience, for example. Lasix can dehydrate horses and deprive them of vitamins and minerals, although I doubt that causes most breakdowns. Unfortunately, when bleeding horses whose careers were improved by Lasix go to stud, they can pass that damaging tendency on to the next generations.
I think that’s the reason de jour! Passing on bleeding tendency! Horses bleed—not every time, of course! The swinging pendulum always over reaches, especially in America….lasix ban insures more bad bleeds, bad bleeds can and do ruin horse’s psyches, there’s zero proof of “passing on needing tendancies”…
MsthewW, Germany conducted studies roughly 13 years ago that proved a connection between EIPH and it being a genetic predisposition. There is a rule that has been on effect since 2014 in the German Stud Book that no stallion requires Lasix to race can be used for breeding. One famous American trainer was quoted as saying that he thinks it is genetic would not mention names when asked.
As I stated below, my comments were not an argument pro or con about the use of Lasix but rather asking the question what are the potential ramifications of the ban on race day.
Steve brought up a good point about horses running Lasix free for the first time in the preps.Bill brought up another good point the lack of consistency across the race track jurisdictions.
Some countries see this entire dilema as being our problem because of the demand for speed from the horses on dirt tracks and the training methods used.
Only time will tell of course, but I forsee that a number of talented horses will never rise out of the upngraded stakes races if they cannot receive something to control EIPH. There is a scale as I recall from 0 to 5 that ranks the severity of the blood. There are also other causes for a horse to bleed.
The unfortunate thing is that if a single drip of blood is detected during the scoping, the vets will prescribe Lasix if the trainer requires it. That is not the case in Japan. The vets are all employees of the JRC and are subject to rules and protocols of the governing agency.
In the event that a lethal gene is involved or if a stallion raced and won without Lasix, that fact could be used as a marketing tool when the stallion goes to the breeding shed.
I will shut up now, starting to ramble, LOL.
Steve, I think you and Nelson have both touched on something to be considered going forward and that is the implication of the removal of Lasix as an allowed race day medication.
Lasix is still permissible during training and in races other than The Kentucky Derby, the prep races, Breeders Cup etc and there is movement to eliminating race day Lasix at other tracks and Lasix period at all tracks.
It will probably take multiple years to build a database of information that can be used to determine trends and the impact of no Lasix on the sport and to answer questions such as is it a PED, did repeated use and quantities result in the weakening of the Thoroughbred bone structure; is Lasix a cause of sudden cardiac deaths in horses; is there a genetic predisposition to EEIPH and just how effective was Lasix in controlling EEIPH (example bleed thru Lasix). Just as a comparison the reporting of race track injuries and deaths by the Jockey Club has been in place for ten years. The industry is just now starting to be able to put this information to good use.
Surely some research group at a vet school or organization has already started building this database.
I am not here to start another conversation ad nauseum on the pros and cons of the med but rather to open the door on the implications for the breeding of Thoroughbreds in the United States and on the races.
Last year the gelding Tyler’s Tribe after 5 successive wins on dirt was heralded as the fastest horse to ever come out of Iowa. Tylers Tribe raced in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, his first time without Lasix. The gelding bled so profusely that he had to be vanned off. I seem to recall that Kentucky Derby winner Orb was a bleeder. Serengeti Empress supposedly bled during her race in the Apple Blossom Hamdicap. I did not know until about a year ago that Beholder bled in the Zenyatta Stakes and was given 6 months off. Was the noise Cyclone Mischief ‘s jockey heard EEIPH and the reason he was eased? These are just a few examples and there are many hundreds more.
Looking at the big picture, beyond the implications of handicapping prep races with horses running first time Lasix free, will there be other implications in American horse racing ?
The sport and the industry has entered a new era in the United States. For almost 50 years Lasix has been used extensively in the United States. Now Lasix is restricted. This is a paradigm shift with all sorts of possible implications.
A bad bleed can ruin a horse’s psyche..
Matthew W, I would think that a bad bleed could upset a horse’s psyche.
It is probably frightening for them as well.
A really bad bleed like the one Tyler’s Pride had can result in the horse’s death
Everytime a horse has an EIPH episode, scar tissue forms in the lungs and overtime the horse’s performance can be compromised.
Mr Mandella made the right decision to take Beholder out of training and spend 6 months on farm to heal and to gradually be be conditioned up return to racing.
Another consideration is that owners are going to spend thousands of dollars to remove bone Chios, repair a trapped epiglottis why would the industry not come up with an alternative to Lasix for horses that truly ha b e EIPH?
Lynda, please allow me to chime in for a moment on the subject of Lasix.
In the 2018 addition of the Florida Derby, Catholic Boy bled so bad, he was lucky to finish 4th.
Going into the last leg of the Pick 6, (the Florida Derby) I was still alive, with Catholic Boy singled on my ticket.
Had he won the Fla. Derby, I would have cashed for over 12K.
The inconsistent use of Lasix, is what I find most troubling. Why is it allowed in some races, but not in others?
Either ban it’s use in all races, or allow it all races. Just my take on the Lasix issue.
Agree on uniform rules.
Hi Bill, thank you for taking the time to comment.
Yes, I remember Catholic Boy.
I am in agreement with you about consistency across all tracks and racing jurisdictions.
Consistency and uniformity is an issue in the United States and the sport and the industry cannot seem to agree how that can be achieved.
Japan has the JRC which regulates every aspect of racing from requiring a 3 year certification program for a jockey license to not allowing a horse cannot race for six months if the horse bleeds during a race.
You’re welcome Lynda.
Maybe if the powers that be would use good old common “horse sense”, that might be able to resolve the Lasix issue.
Edit to say, “they might be able to resolve the Lasix issue”.
Steve, the big three Derby preps are naturally drawing all the attention but there are some interesting colts running in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, which carry Derby points. Have you, or anyone else for that matter, had time to look over the field at all? The Bettaglia being a prep for the Jeff Ruby Stakes, which holds maximum points, might just be a dark horse in the run up to the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps, just clutching at straws but it’s an odd year. Who knows?
Not to answer for Steve, Davids, but you are not clutching at straws. One of Rich Strike’s stakes placings prior to the Kentucky Derby was a third in the Leonatus Stakes, a prep for the Jeff Ruby, in which he also ran third. I looked for entries in the Battaglia earlier today and they hadn’t been posted yet. Where did you find them? Thanks —
Ms B, not to answer for Davids, but you can find the entries on Blood Horsse web page under racing entries.
Thanks, Lynda.
Ms Blacktype, DRF’s website usually has the all entries before any other website. Thanks for the encouragement, I have actually been following a couple of the colts that are running in the Bettaglia so fingers crossed. As you say, sometimes the Jeff Ruby Stakes make’s its presence in the Kentucky Derby. Best of luck.
That’s where I usually look, knowing the last three Beyers and any notes will be posted closer to the race. I’m sure they’re there now.
Re: San Felipe Stakes, Sat. 3-4, at SA (R6)
I’m looking forward to see the morning line odds on referenced race, which have yet to be posted.
It appears that Hejazi has finally put it together, breaking his maiden on his fourth try. He went for $3.5 millon at auction, so there’s been high expections from the get go. The fractions he set for that 6 1/2 maiden win were torrid, 21.97, 44.28, 1:08.41 with a finishing time of 1:14.58. He has the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the field, at 105. The only higher speed figure is 107, by Genius Jimmy, but that was on turf. All of Genius Jimmy’s works have been on dirt, so it’s interesting that Michael McCarthy has raced him on turf in his last three starts. When a horse can finish a 9 furlong race, in 1:46 4/5, as Genius Jimmy did last out, he deserves a look as a live longshot to consider, IMO.
Originally, I was going to go with Practical Move in the San Felipe, but I’ve decided to go with Hejazi.
If Genius Jimmy’s odds are in the double digits, I’ll place a $10.00 WPS on him, hoping he can transfer that turf form to dirt.
Safe trips to all.
Bill, I don’t know if you read my comments earlier about Hejazi but from what I gather H worked 10 days ago in the company of Laurel River-a horse that has won three straight races the last being the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Handicap and maybe the best miler now, and blew right past LR in 59.1 (1/62).
Thanks for the reply John.
Yes, Hejazi’s last work on 2-19, was something to behold. It appears we’re on the same page regarding Hejazi as the likely winner of the San Felipe.
Any thoughts you might have on Genius Jimmy would be appreciated. He could hit the board at good odds.
Thanks John, and good luck.
I believe the Hejazi race was over a wet-fast rolled track….
Where is Fort Bragg
Fort Bragg is entered in the San Felipe Stakes, (Sat. 3-4), post position 9.
His last two workouts have been 6 furlong bullets, but he appears to be up against it with the likes of National Treasure, Practical Move and Hejazi, IMO.
North Carolina. I can’t believe I’m the first person to answer correctly.
Like so many of us — I was inspired directly by Steve’s DD in the Bloodhorse back in the day — I’ve kept a list of top Derby prospects for more than a dozen years. This is the first time I can recall that so many lists published online (drf, bloodhorse, here) have been so closely in alignment top to bottom. That begs the question: Other than Forte, most of this bunch are lightly raced and rather uninspiring. Are there still a few off-the-radar sleepers out there that may yet surprise us?
Snap! Ha ha That’s exactly why l’m taking a much more serious look at the Turfway Park preps this year than usual. Hopefully, this Saturday will clear some of the confusion. Good luck.
Most everybody on this site has very good knowledge of racehorses. I appreciate reading all of your posts.
I am kind of intrigued as to why Red Route One keeps living on the back burner. Everybody loves what Confidence Game and Reincarnate did in the Rebel. However, did you see that late run by RRO? He is not getting much respect and I truly believe he ran the best race in the Rebel. He has an excellent race foundation and he’s as honest as the day is long. I know that Steve thinks he can hit the board in the Derby, but I love how this horse is moving forward.
Future wager at 58-1 makes me VERY happy.
Good luck to all and thanks again for the excellent posts, and for you Steve for all of your great knowledge.
David
My only futures bets were in the last pool: Giant Mischief at 43-1, Gun Pilot at 66-1, Practical Move at 83-1, and Game Change at 165-1. GM and GP were off the board in the sloppy Rebel. Practical Move is entered in Saturday’s San Felipe, and Game Change is in a 9f allowance at Gulfstream tomorrow. I should know by the weekend whether I should start over again in Pool 5. I would think that Game Change needs to be super impressive for McGaughey to consider a major stakes prep.
Good luck with Practical Move in the San Felipe Stakes. Game Change comes from a very active family but I’d hazard a guess that they would be looking more to the mid- summer Derby, Travers Stakes, than the Kentucky Derby but you never know. This year has been so unpredictable that ‘starting over again’ would be a wise decision.
Your guess is a good one.
I forgot who asked but Mage got an 8 Thoro Graph number in his first start.
Thanks Steve, for the information about Mage’s ThoroGraph.
I was expecting better TG (i.e. at least a 5) for his impressive debut. The son of Good Magic received a Beyer of 89, Equibase of only 88 and the one I believe better is the 101 Brisnet.
Mage ran pretty outstanding times:
(:22.78, :45.88, 1:10.17, 1:22.54).
I find his 1:22 2/5 for 7 furlongs to be dazzling specially because he finished in 12 2/5 … crying for more distance!
The only good reference in the same Pegasus WC undercard, is the Grade 2 Inside Information Stakes which were run in:
(:22.41, :45.38, 1:10.37, 1:23.64).
Mage’s time was 1 and 1/5 second faster than that of the brilliant sprinter Maryquitecontrary, who flaunts 6 wins and a 2nd in 7 starts. She had Speed Ratings of 95 before but she got only 87 in the Grade 2 …
Anyway, not that I give a lot of weight to SF’s but a Beyer of 89 for Mage is still respectable in relative terms as Angel of Empire got 89 for his Risen Star, Litigate only 77 for his Sam F. Davis and Rocket Can 82 for the Holy Bull.
We will know more after this crucial weekend …
Nelson, did you see that Arthur’s Ride is now out of the Derby Trail. That list of 10 Tapits i had is dwindling down week by week. Lol. In the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes there are two Tapit’s running Aristocracy, which I like and Congruent which seems to be distanced challenged. Perhaps, Aristocracy will put in a good run. Actually, it’s not a bad race just lacks star power but you never know one might sprout rings and start making a noise.
Yes Davids. It was a TDN breaking news. Mott said the gray will be off for the rest of the year… hope is nothing serious. With Signator and Arthur’s Ride out my Tapit-top list contains 8…
1.
2. Tapit Trice
3. Fort Bragg
4. Tapit’s Conquest
5. Tapit Shoes
6.
7. Shopper’s Revenge
8. Silver Heist
9. Aristocracy
10. Congruent
Kid Ketchum, Whitewalker, Gametime Gladiator and Dataman are not Derby material …
Nelson, Mott was saying out for the year so let’s hope all will be ok. You have no love for Fort Bragg? You may be right. I’m still hoping with Game Warden but probably for later on.
Oh no! Arthur was my sleeper pick. Really liked his winning debut race this year. Thanks for reporting this, Davids. Hope to see him back at 4.
It’s so dispiriting sometimes, Ms Blacktype. Hopefully, Arthur’s Ride’s injury is not going to prevent the horse from reaching his full potential.
It seems that, at least for the past 10 years or so, Brisnet figures are a better gauge of Derby success than Beyers. The most recent example is Rich Strike. Many were shocked that RS earned 84 (last prep) and 76 Beyers in his last two, then won the Derby…with a 102. Brisnet gave RS a 95 and an 87. From what I’ve read over the years, the Beyer group arrives at figures with some degree of subjectivity.
I am with you Simon… Beyer figures are sometimes “amended” days after the initial number is issued which signals that is less rigorous than other metrics in the market.
From some comparisons in the past I also concluded that Brisnet makes more sense.
For instance, Hit Show’s Brisnet of 96 describes his Wither better than the 91 Beyer… specially because Brisnets are normally lower than the Beyers. Same case for Litigate who got Brisnet of 87 versus 77 Beyer in the Sam Davis …
Angel of Empire got 97 Brisnet and 89 Beyer in the Risen Star…
I believe Brisnet for all these recent examples.
Curiously the three Speed Figures I track are similar for Forte’s BC win; the same can be said for Cave Rock and Newgate in their qualifying wins.
You got it, my maan.
Rich Strike’s Brisnet figure was also 102, so a relatively modest 7-pt improvement.
Steve, your preference for bringing a horse back from the winter layoff in a sprint race has been well-documented. Could you comment on wha tyou think is the ideal number of prep races? I know this will vary depending on experience, layoff time, etc., but let’s say your horse raced 4 or more times at age 2, up until about Nov., and had at least one race over a mile. How many races is ideal to get him ready for the mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May?
Raining cats and dogs right now, in So Cal….clearing 10AM Wed, sunshine rest of week…been a wet last several days….
Good news, Matthew. Will the turf course dry out to good by Saturday?
It will have give, for sure…sun…but still cool….horses not able to gallop concerns me, about Skinner, the most…..I can’t wait for an up close look at him..
Thanks Matthew. Yes, there’s nothing like being there, up close. The Big ‘Cap looks like a great race, wide open.
2pm just stopped hailing..
Steve, you need more confidence in instant coffee, he has not done anything wrong, horses he has beat have come back to win. This horse is trained by one of the best in the biz. When he wins his next race and he will hope to see you get aboard. This horse is not flashy but gets the job done. He is no Morello if that’s what your afraid of.He is in top 5 in my book, but we all have our opinions that’s what make this so much fun. .
It’s not about the horse. Its strictly about going into the Derby with only one race in 14 weeks. He likely will move up. I want to see how Brad works him.
Love this time of year, and Steve Haskin always adds so much to the fun. I live in a state that blocks entry onto every betting website so I’ve been using my friend’s offshore Ecuadorian site. But my friend lost big on the Superbowl and hasn’t reupped her 1500 dollar pot since, so I’m stuck with no where to bet for now, boohoo, and missed my chance at 18-1 with the Rebel winner about whom I’d read online somewhere the day before was a sleeper with a big chance. Oh well. Would, could, should. I need a new account of my own.
So far I like the Derby chances of Reincarnation and Hit Show, and it’ll be great to see what Forte can do.
It’s good to read another person likes Hit Show’s chances in the Derby. I’ve got a $100.00 win wager on him, at 77-1 in Derby Futures Pool 3. In addition, I keyed Hit Show on top, with the entire Pool 3 pool, in my $2.00 exacta wager. In Derby Furtures Pool 4, his odds dropped substantially to 28-1, but I figured those are still pretty good odds to bet a few more exactas. Once again, I keyed him on top with a few bombers, at double digit odds.
BTW, I liked Confidence Game going into the Rebel, and he didn’t disappoint. From my perspective, he has one of the best pedigrees to get the classic distance. I’ll be taking a long hard look at his odds in Futures Pool 5, which opens on March 10th.
Good luck.
Henry Q from California winning the Mine The Bird Derby by 14 1/2 lengths….
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
It’s a little but warmer in the SW. Maybe this one can earn some points and shock us again!
I meant to write about that race but it somehow got lost. Definitely next week.
I think many folks out there did not have that race noted… Unless you are are from California or in the SW.
Secondly, having a stakes race on Tuesday is also a bit under carpet. Even the betting public was not that impressed with only $45,675 bet on the WPS….
That’s why I missed it. Lol
Forte’s imminent 3-year-old debut led me to check the stats around the transition of 2-year-old champions to their subsequent campaign. I am covering the Breeder’s Cup era.
Over the last 38 years 31 (82%) champions were able to make their 3-y-o debut during the Derby trail.
Their overall 3-y-o debut performance reads:
14 (45%) firsts,
7 (23%) seconds,
4 (13%) thirds,
4 (13%) fourths and
2 (6%) seventh places.
The average debut finish is a remarkable 2.3 suggesting a good probability of the champion 2-y-o coming first or second in his first 3-y-o start.
The statistical data might not be in favor of the champions actually winning the Derby but they certainly looked good going into it.
Nine (9) of those champions who entered the trail had health setbacks preventing them to run for the Roses. The most remembered scratch was Uncle Mo who suffered a serious gastro-intestinal infection.
Another curios fact is that the last two champions restarting in Florida were Classic Empire and Good Magic. Both finished in third with the latter beaten by two sprinters in the Fountain of Youth (Promises Fulfilled and Swale Stakes winner Strike Power).
This result (instinctively) supports Steve’s statement about Forte chances in the FOY: “the most obvious way of beating him is to steal the race on the front end and hope he is still a little short coming off a layoff.”
Sounds to me like General Jim and/or Mage will be pushing Forte to his limit at only 1 1/6 mile in a speed favoring track…we shall see what we shall see.
That’s a pretty good percentage for champions winning their 3 year old debut, considering that favorites win a bit over a third of the time (I would think that all or nearly all were favorites in their returns). But few have won in their debut in a two-turn graded stakes. Four maybe? Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, American Pharoah, and Essential Quality seem like the only ones that jump out when looking through the list of champs.
Of course, we’d need to know the total number of champs coming back in a two-turn graded stakes. I’m quite sure it was rare from 1985 to Street Sense’s return.
Starting the count in 1985 the first one debuting at 2-turn was Dehere (in 1994) but it was a 1-1/6-mile Allowance won by Ride the Rails (the sire of Candy Ride).
The era of 2-turn Stakes as more regular option started with Boston Harbor in 1997 Santa Catalina which was a Listed race that year.
After those 2, there have been 12 debuting in 2-turn graded Stakes:
Year Champion 2-year-old Placing Race
2021 Essential Quality 1 Southwest
2019 Game Winner 2 Rebel
2018 Good Magic 3 FOY
2017 Classic Empire 3 Holy Bull
2015 American Pharoah 1 Rebel
2013 Shanghai Bobby * 2 Holy Bull
2012 Hansen 2 Holy Bull
2010 Lookin at Lucky 1 Rebel
2007 Street Sense 1 Tampa Bay Derby
2005 Declan’s Moon* 1 Santa Catalina
2002 Johannesburg 2 G3 in Europe
2000 Anees 3 San Felipe
Great work, Nelson! Declan’s Moon…completely forgot him. So 5 winners out of 12. Not bad at all. But maybe 5 out of 11, because I don’t think Johannesburg’s debut was a route.
You are right the Gladness Stakes is a 1,400-meter Grade 3 at The Curragh… the filly Rebelline defeated Johannesburg by a head.
Seasonal debut of champions is always alluring…
Actually the distance was 7 furlongs which is approximately 1,408 meters. Imperial distances are used in the Republic of Ireland.
Nelson, just wondering if databases, software, computer programs etc have actually increased your success at betting or not? You don’t have to answer that. Lol. I have relatives in the UK and Australia who run on-course medium size bookmaker pitches and their wealth has actually increased with the inception of these various forms of computerised software. Nonetheless, in the UK, online betting has wiped out over 33% of the smaller on-course registered bookmakers in the past 20 years or so. These figures were before Covid so who knows the real figures now.
That is a good theme Davids…The data I share here are mostly about the Derby and some related Stakes. The aim there is more about history than handicapping… but as you very well know there are some history lessons that can be applied to guessing Stakes outcomes.
I can not say that I use more than the typical past performances in terms of basic stats especially due to lack of time. For instance, there is no way we can analyze all the videos that are fortunately available to pinpoint a possible longshot.
However, if I were a professional horseplayer I would try to dig deeper into all kinds of figures and I certainly would have time to watch a lot of replays.
I am quite sure that digital technology has provided the most inquisitive handicappers with an edge; but the typical fan would be content with predicting the pace of the race based on the past performances and with evaluating how the records of Jockeys and trainer would play out in any given race.
So, to answer your question I really don’t know if data mining as a whole has improved my success at betting… but going beyond basic PP’s could do it.
Thanks Nelson, I’ve watched the growth of online betting expand exponentially while at the same time the smaller on-course bookmakers are disappearing. As you know my interests lay more in sales/breeding/racing rather than betting these days but your data always impresses so I thought you may have noticed any trends etc.
No doubt Jonathon Kinchen would have a reasonable grasp on the pros and cons of digital technology in relation to handicapping. Years ago I was told by professional handicappers that they bet numbers rather than horses and the best odds are to be found on unraced two year olds.
Good luck this Saturday, should be a great day of racing from coast to coast.
Steve,thanks again for your valuable insights. Would you kindly print Reincarnate’s Thorograph pattern when available? Also, any word on Victory Formations path from here? Hate to give up on him now. Had higher hopes for him! Thx.
Hi John I’m waiting on his number for the Rebel. Usually Wednesday sometimes Thursday. I will give his pattern next week. I haven’t seen a work for Victory Formation. I’m sure something must have happened. The race was too bad.
With 2 months to go to the KDerby, isn’t it time that Churchill Downs with their official pdf Road To The Kentucky qualification point standings list starts noting horse which are off the trail. For one, trainer of Loggins have announced that he is not going. The list doesn’t support this. Victory Formation is another on that begs the question…
A full field of eleven will contest the San Felipe Stakes on Saturday. With respect to previous Derby prep races this year, the San Felipe appears to be the most competitive to date, IMO. If Practical Move can replicate his Los Alamitos Futurity performance, finishing in 1:41.65 over the 8.5 furlong distance, he could hit the wire first in the San Felipe.
However, there are several other colts in this race that are on the improve, and should give Practical Move all he can handle.
Good luck trying to handicap the race, it’s pretty much wide open.
I would welcome any thoughts, by the other regulars on this site, on how they see the race unfolding.
Thanks
I think National Treasure will go off favored…I think Geaux Rocket Ride will send…along with one of the outside draws. … after it rains at Santa Anita the track changes, and closers do well, making Skinner attractive—but the track was closed a few days, and Skinner probably needed his gallops more than others, having only recently come back—a very perplexing puzzle!..
Steve, when I read your opening graf on Forte that was identical to the one you wrote about his sire who only raced 4 times, I thought, oh no! Please don’t let it happen again. At least Forte has already raced 5 times with no signs of weakness. I take comfort from the three crosses of Secretariat in his pedigree (two through Storm Cat’s dam Terlingua, and one through Secrettame, the dam of Gone West).
If Forte’s sire is going to be an influence the form reads that the horse will eventually not start in the KDerby and end up with a surgeon and then to a nice pasture in the fine state of Kentucky….
To paraphrase an old commercial “When Haskin writes we listen” It’s nice to get the dope on all the horses, instead of in them! Thanks Steve
Comment of the day! Luv it.
Gettin’ the dope from the dope.
Thank you Derek.
I just love the English language, a triple entondra there.
But you probably don’t love the unpredictable speech-to-text function. Neither dew eye. 😉
General Jim had a 4f workout on February 18, two weeks after his Swale win. He hasn’t worked since. Uh oh.
They did enter him, so hopefully all is well.
Excellent observation by Steve about the performance of horses coming off Lasix.
Another proof of him being a very acute observer of the Derby dynamics.
The five cases of subpar performances mentioned by Steve are not as puzzling now after reading his scrutiny and awareness.
I am pretty sure that now many handicappers will not only consider this angle but also shouting to themselves “how come I did not notice that?”.
We are fortunate to have access to Steve’s experience and handicapping tools….
BTW… Steve, I would appreciate it if you could please let us know the ThoroGraph number for Mage.
Thanks in advance.
Nelson, nearly every 3 year old in non-stakes has run on lasix. Some win and most lose. Impossible really to determine the effect.
Yes Simon. It is difficult to know how Lasix or lack of affect performance… and I don’t want to open any debate or controversy about the this treatment… it could go forever.
Of course, there are exceptions like the dependable Sun Thunder and Litigate who did rather well off Lasix.
But also, it came to me that Banishing was another one who ran bad without Lasix. On the other hand, you have a no-Lasix horse like Victory Formation with a dismal run last time… obviously, there could be a dozen of other reasons for their setbacks.
My takeout from Steve comments is to monitor all the horses who never needed Lasix and are still consistent. My list of “favored” horses so far includes:
Forte, Practical Move, Hit Show, Arctic Arrogance, Blazing Sevens, Instant Coffee, Confidence Game, Disarm, Rocket Can, Lugan Knight, Shopper’s Revenge.
In a highly competitive trail one sometimes must resort to every piece of data available to try separating all the hopefuls… anyway, it is only my personal perspective.
forgot to mention all Baffert hopefuls except Hejazi and Mr Fisk have run without Lasix so far…
so they will make my list.
Nelson, I hope you’re right about Arctic Arrogance but he seems to have distance limitations beyond a mile or so. Best of luck.
The point was to show Simon that not every horse has needed Lasix in their non-Stakes races …So, Arctic Arrogance just happens to be in the list of horses who never used Lasix. He is not in my top 15 as I posted before.
The son of Frosted is indeed an excellent miler.
Ah, all good. I thought it was odd that you would have Arctic Arrogance as a possible Derby prospect. Ha ha Yes, Arctic Arrogance could be a good miler.
Thanks Nelson. I am putting in an order today and will include him.
This is a very special year, it’s the 50th Anniversary of Secretariat’s Triple Crown. I think we are going to see something special this year, even if it is not another Triple Crown. We are already seeing two remarkable things happening. Dreaming of Snow, the daughter of Curlin and Rachel Alexandra (Jess’s Dream-her sire), has beaten the two top three year old fillies; she beat Wonder Wheel and Julia Shining in the Suncoast Stakes. The track at Tampa Downs, where she ran, is much like the track at Churchill Downs And Zenyatta’s nephew, Confidence Game, won the Rebel Stakes and is now eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Perhaps this is what was supposed to happen. Neither Queen was to meet on the track and their progeny will not meet on the track as well. I love it.
Hey Terri, both Dreaming of Snow and Confidence Game are already fan favorites and will be strongly supported by the fan bases for both Zenny and Rachel going into the races.
Jane Lyon, Summer Wind Farm, is over the moon that Ebby has produced a winner, something that she was so hopeful would happen.
We never know whom the racing gods will smile favor down on!
Thanks Lynda King for your analysis and your post.
I can just imagine Penny Chennery. Eric Cronfeld (who owned and bred Ebby and bred Zenyatta), Jess Jackson (owner of Rachel Alexandra and Curlin), and Steve Willard (Zenyatta’s exercise rider) all having a good laugh up in heaven.
The Racing Gods are for real, otherwise how could this happen this year 50 years after Secretariat’s Triple Crown? And the spirit of Penny Chennery is involved not only as the owner of Secretariat, but the originator of the Secretariat Vox Populi Award.
Don’t forget that both Dreaming of Snow and Confidence Game go back to Secretariat through their damsires.
Following the progeny of these great race mares adds to the fun.
Speaking of Zenny, is she supposed to foal a War Front baby this year or is she to bred to War Front this year? I forget.
I will never forget the night Princess Z was born. It was Easter Sunday and my birthday. Think she was just about the most beautiful newborn foal I have ever seen.
What a sad loss it was when Princess Z had to be euthanized due to a paddock accident.
I will double check on the latest news of Zenyatta and her latest breeding.
Noticed that McPeek isn’t listed as trainer for Sun Thunder. Also, Reincarnate is with Yakteen.
I dont know how that happened. Both were correct last week. Very strange.
I thought it wise to not say anything about the trainer you listed for Instant Coffee…
…Juan Valdez
Okay, March is approaching and the Sunshine State is ready to produce a Kentucky Derby winner! Is Steve’s blog the best Derby trail writing in all of horse racing? Yes! I was up until 2 am reading and rereading and looking at race videos. I’m so excited!
At the end of the commenting for the Week 5 blog yesterday, I teased about a parallel between this week’s FoY and one not too many years ago. Well, Steve alluded to it at the beginning of his paragraph on Forte. Here’s the lowdown.
2013
Todd Pletcher had an undefeated (3 for 3) colt named Violence that last raced in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park in December. Violence was the odds-on favorite in the FoY. The 2nd favorite, trained by Shug McGaughey, was Orb at odds of 5 to 1. Orb needed four races to break his maiden, then he followed up with an allowance win at Gulfstream 4 weeks before the FoY. Orb defeated Violence in the FoY by a half length. Violence never raced again. Orb won the Kentucky Derby.
Fast forward to 2023
Todd Pletcher has a champion colt by Violence named Forte who last won the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile in November at Keeneland after winning the G1 Hopeful Stakes and Breeders Futurity. Forte is the 7 to 5 morning-line favorite and is expected to be odds on. Shug McGaughey trains General Jim, who last won the Grade 3 Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream 4 weeks before the FoY. General Jim’s morning line odds in the FoY are 6 to 1.
Will history repeat? Or will Violence, through his son Forte, get revenge? Or neither? Ha!
Thank you Roberta. My opening comments on Forte, which I thought were pretty remarkable, apparently didnt make the impression I thought they would. Lol.
We’ll just keep it to ourselves, Steve. Ha ha!
Roberta, I was wondering what you were referring to in your previous post and its connection to the Fountain of Youth Stakes, now and previously. Clever you, and well done. Will history repeat itself is an interesting question. I remember Shug saying that Orb would be on lasix because he was concerned about the expected humidity at Gulfstream Park.
Hope you have a wonderful time, I’m getting some nervous excitement already.
Thanks so much, Davids. I’m excited about Saturday, too. Long range forecast is for mostly sunny skies, a high of 87°, and a 15 mph wind out of the south (facing the runners in the stretch. Fingers crossed.
Yes, Roberta. Fingers crossed. Charge It might do something special in the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes. Thrills galore. Ha ha
I’m expecting Prat to send Geaux Rocket Ride, and recent turf maiden winner Genius Jimmy might sit right off him….109 Equibase number—in h is 4th try, and each race a better number, if—and that’s a big if—he transitions well to dirt, he could upset the apple cart, from the 10 post he was sent hard, set fast splits and rebroke—his final 1:46 1/5 was fantastic, I also like Skinner, but after a Feb comeback it’s 3 weeks to a Gr2, and I disagree with Simon this looks like a tough bunch, as far as Yakteen running five— I’m guessing he doesn’t have many options…I doubt he has a lot of assistants, I agree it does kind of pinch his Practical Move owners some…it is what it is, I hope to be trackside! ..
Only New York’s weather looks dodgy this Saturday so perhaps Hejazi will stay in California. It’s a tough assignment for Tim Yakteen no matter who wins. Fort Bragg and Hejazi interest me to see if they’ve improved over winter. Overall toss up really.
Hejazi improved a ton…but was it the Lasix? Horses do jump up, this time in their 3yo seasons. .
Yes Matthew, that’s always the $64,000 question? I’m not sure whether Hejazi is a miler or a router but which ever race he goes in the distance it shouldn’t have an impact this time. We’ll know after the race.
Matthew, the San Felipe field may turn out to be the best of the bunch when we look back a few months from now. Today, on paper, it’s really not much better than the Rebel. As for the transfer of Baffert horses to Yakteen, nobody put a gun to the head of Baffert to send nearly all of his Derby hopefuls to Yakteen. And the same goes for Yakteen in accepting all of them.
I disagree….one graded winner you say, National Treasure won a Del Mar Maiden then ran in the money in three gr1s and a gr2….and there just aren’t that many graded races in the west, Cave Rock won the two gr1s….probably five times more back in your side of the country, but it’s Horse Racing, where everyone has an opinion…
Five times more graded races, meant to say…on paper it’s a good race…
Yes, that is true about National Treasure. But his decent efforts in graded stakes don’t make up for the lack of quality runners in the SF. Not only does the FOY have four graded stakes winners, but it has the winner of the Mucho Macho Man and the close 2nd-place finisher in the Holy Bull. The Baffert horses have been running against each other. What does that tell us? If there aren’t many graded stakes in the west, why aren’t there more non-Baffert horses in them? Looking at the class ratings in the PPs of the SF and the FOY, it’s clear that the eastern races are better.
Again, there are many more graded stakes races back east, hence more graded winners…also likely making what few there are, out west stronger fields—a post from another site lists the top four Derby preps, strength-wise so far this year—
#1 Robert Lewis (west)
#2 Southwest (won by west coast horse)
#3 Sham (west)
#4 Rebel (west horse looked pretty good)
So far in 2023 western based horses have looked best—not saying they will win the Derby—they shouldn’t, being there are so many more good eastern horses—but the do, and fairly often….
True that there aren’t many graded stakes in California. But the two preps so far this year (Sham, RL Lewis) had fields of five and four and were glorified workouts for Baffert colts. The San Felipe, fortunately, has 11 entries. ONLY four of the 11 were Baffert’s. LOL
The best horse in the Rebel was one of those western sham horses, as you said…or was it Sham horse, maybe you were complimenting—Nah!..
Arguments could be made for any of four horses being the “best” in the Rebel. But maybe the best horse is the one that can get a good position and stay out of trouble…and WIN. I like Reincarnate, though.
Fair enough, Simon, California Racing is declining, but one time was as good as anywhere in the world, and it is sad—but the one thing they have out here are good three year olds and that is because Bob is based here—if he moved to the east, or God forbid passed away—Cali would be a big cut below, horse talent wise…I’m invited to sit in a finish line box, Sat and I hope to attend, because cards like this Sat are not common, out here anymore..
That’s great MatthewW.
You will have to tell us all about it!8
I hope to get an up close look at the three year olds, if I can will send a post pre race!..
Matthew reporting from Santa Anita and Roberta reporting from Gulfstream. Should be fun!
Maybe he’ll move to Kentucky, with headquarters at Churchill Downs.
Excellent rankings and analysis. I would put Confidence Game just a bit lower because long-shot winners of the big preps in the slop are suspect. On the other hand, wins at this stage are critical. Arabian Knight is certainly talented, but the lack of work and the barn change would put him a couple of notches further down in my 15. I’d replace Skinner at #15 with the Holy Bull winner Rocket Can. True that his BSF was low, but his brisnet was 93. So a slight improvement would put him in contention. He nearly beat Confidence Game in the November race at CD, plus he also won in the slop there earlier. Oh, he’s a graded stakes winner, too. Skinner…a great deal of upside, but he hasn’t run very well against winners. Why he had to try is a whole other matter.
I already thought that California racing was/is a joke, but the San Felipe entries have turned the scene into a travesty of a mockery of a sham. What are racing fans and handicappers supposed to think about Baffert sending four horses to Yakteen and all of them entered in a major Derby prep where Yakteen already has his own highly regarded runner as a likely favorite? I wonder if Baffert told Yakteen that he wanted the four colts to be entered in the SF or if this was Yakteen’s (and owners’) decision.
So we have another big Derby prep with just one graded stakes winner: Practical Move. He doesn’t seem to have lost a step since his December win, and should handle this field of maiden winners and ex-Baffert lessers … regardless of the circus atmosphere. The FOY, by the way, has 4 graded stakes winners. Hallelujah!
On the contrary then why don’t horses based in Florida, NY, Kentucky and elsewhere come to California and try and beat past and present trained Baffert horses? The money is there for the taking as well as the points and at last check no there is no suspension nor quarantine for Cox, Asmussen, Pletcher, Lukas, or Brown horses.
Why does it seem that Baffert has to take his horses, whether on temporary basis or not, and travel to Oaklawn, the Fair Grounds, New York just to prove a point?
Unfortunately, John,, that is how things have always been. I remember the star filly, Lakeway, having to go east all the time until they finally beat her through injury. You have my sympathy. Makes the Californian colts more seasoned travels with us an advantage.
Davids, your insinuation that Lakeaway had to go East all the time until they beat her through injury does not exactly hold water.
Lakeaway was bred and born in Kentucky at Mike Rutherford’s Manchester Farm in 1991. Mr Rutherford sent the filly to California trainer Gary Jones.
She broke her maiden in her first race as a 2 year old in October 1993 at Santa Anita. While she was on the track preparing for her next race she was frightened by a water truck, dumped her rider, took off, jumped the rail, fell, landed upside down on a water sprinkler and injured her hip that took out of training for two months.
She ran 2nd to Sardula (another California trained filly) in the Kentucky Oaks, losing by a head in a hotly contested stretch run. She came back and won the Mother Goose Stakes. Went back to California, won the Hollywood Stakes. She took 2nd in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga, losing to the Phipps owned, Shug McGauhey trained filly, Heavenly Prize. After the Alabama, it was discovered that Lakeaway had suffered a cannon bone injury which took her out of training for a year. After her return she was somewhat inconsistent winning only one of her final 6 races.
The Breeders Cup was held at Belmont Park in 1995. The race call had Lakeway in a hot contested pace duel with Mariah’s Storm and Serena’s Song both whom faded. Lakeaway placed third behind Heavenly Prize and the winner, Insider Information who was also owned by Phipps and trained by Shug.
Lakeaway was a brilliant, fast filly who set track records, one of which still stands and was even considered to run in the Kentucky Derby. She was never 100% sound after the water truck incident, however. She missed the Kentucky Derby prep race because Mr Jones observed that she was way off in her hip. After being taken for x-rays it was decided that the Oaks was a better option.
On at least two occasions she reinjured her hip when she backed into the starting gate, rebreaking her tailbone that was injured in the water truck incident and she suffered the cannon bone injury. Her trainer, Gary Jones, said that the filly had a glitch in her hip after the water truck incident.
Winnings: 14 Starts: 7 – 3 – 3 – 4, $965,330
At 3: 1st Las Virgenes S.(G1), Santa Anita Oaks (G1,SA), Mother Goose S.(G1,Bel), Hollywood Oaks (G1,Hol); 2nd Kentucky Oaks(G1,CD), Alabama S.(G1,Sar)
At 4: 1st Churchill Downs Breeders’ Cup H. (G2,CD); 2nd Chula Vista H.(G2,Dmr); 3rd Beldame S.(G1,Bel), Breeders’ Cup Distaff(G1,Bel), Breeders’ Cup H.(G3,Dmr)
Information Sources – Mike G Rutherford, Manchester Farm web page
Lakeaway Pedigree, pedigree query web page
Lakeaway – Equibase
Wikipedia – stakes races results
Hi Lynda
Thank you for posting another informative comment in clear, concise terms.
On this occasion, you brought clarity to Lakeaway’s career.
Please keep your comments coming, they’re well received on this end. 🙂
Thank you Bill.
Just realized I did not spell her name correctly, thus the edit comment.
She was a lovely filly with so much potential and talent.
Mr Rutherford was a very caring owner. Gary Jones, a great trainer with many good horses.
Some called her the next Ruffian.
That incident with the water truck was so unfortunate and we can only speculate what if.
My latest endeavor is learning about all the great trainers in the past.
Just watch a video documentary couple of nights ago about Ben Jones.
Very much agree with your comments about Confidence Game.
Edit- Lakeway, not Lakeaway
Got it. 🙂
Davids, I understand your comment completely. Yes, after her first four career races — all at SA — seven of her remaining 10 races were in the east. She was not the same filly after the injury and year layoff.
That’s right Simon. Here’s a snippet from “The New York Times” report:
“[Lakeway] was so good that she went to the gate as the 1-5 favorite. Her record was impeccable: One loss in seven starts, and that one by a head to Sardula in the mud in the Kentucky Oaks. They even flew Kent Desormeaux in from California to ride her for the eighth straight time.” By Joseph Durso
Lakeway lost the Alabama Stakes, through injury during the race, to Ogden Phipps’s Heavenly Prize that filly had not won in 10 months. Lakeway was never the same after the Alabama Stakes.
Unfortunately, reading Wikipedia’s abbreviated summaries of racehorses careers is not the best way to be informed.
Let’s not start another brouhaha.
Haha
No, heaven forbid. Ha ha
Good question, John. The answer is another question…Why on earth would stables east of the Mississippi ship their horses a couple thousand miles for the San Felipe and SA Derby when there are so many preps closer to home? The Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, the Tampa Bay Derby, the Gotham and Wood Memorial — enough races where big stables can separate their top colts. Baffert has always sent a few of his derby hopefuls east because there aren’t enough stakes races at home.
Dang, forgot about the Blue Grass.
Interesting comments, Simon. Don’t forget that Hejazi is also nominated for the Gotham Stakes as well as being entered in the San Felipe Stakes so who knows there. This weekend’s prep Stakes might lift some of the fog.
The fog is thick as pea soup.
Let’s hope it lifts come Saturday afternoon.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing a very impressive analysis on your top contenders moving forward on the Derby trail.
I find it very encouraging that Hit Show continues to move on your Derby Weekly Rankings. Hit Show was mentioned on your KOTD segment in weeks 1,2 and 3. In week 4 he was 6th, week 5 he was moved up to 5th and today you moved Hit Show up to 4th. Good Show, mate.
With the exception of Skinner, Sun Thunder, General Jim and Verifying, our top 15 a very similar, the sequence being slightly different.
I’m looking forward to see how Lugan Knight performs in the Gotham, I have him at #15 on my top 15 list. If he finishes in the top 3, look for him to come right back in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 8th.
Thanks again Steve, we all look forward to your Derby Rankings, week after week.
Steve, I meant to mention Confidence Game, and liked that fact that he was placed at #10 this week. With 57 Derby points, he’s at the top of leader board, and has already earned over $600K for the “Don’t Tell My Wife Stables”. Not to shabby for a horse that sold for 25K at auction. His pedigree reflects a significant amount of speed, class and stamina. There’s a lot to like about Confidence Game moving forward on the Derby trail, IMO.
Thank I Steve for seeing the same thing I did with Reincarnate . He’s the real Deal
Good stuff Steve:
Being a thoro player myself I value those performance figure.
However I do start to get concerned with horses with large move up numbers.
Tend to lead to a bounce.
Forte is definitely the class in the FOY, history shows the big horse coming of the layoff is usually a bet against.
End game is May.
Watched some General Jim replays last night and he definitely caught my eye.
Good Luck
John
Well done as always Steve. I could be riding Confidence Game the rest of the way. He could just be getting good. Slop schmlop, I’d rather have one that can run in it, than one that can’t.
I don’t think Brad Cox is giving up on Giant Mischief based on that effort. He had every right to take the lane he did and go to the front, only thing is, he’s a closer, not a front runner. He didn’t like the mud, and unlike what I’ve read, I don’t think Oaklawn handles slop as well as Aqueduct or Gulfstream or that track in Louisville KY, it was a mess all day.
These disappointing efforts don’t mean it’s over for those who disapppointed. It’s in part a sign of light racing, another problem with Giant Mischief, who broke great unlike in the Rem. mile. Nor are the preps coming up this weekend, considered the best so far, necessarily the ones that will yield the KD winner. No one has knocked any socks off yet. I fear Forte will need this upcoming race after a prolonged layoff, a lot of Pletcher horses coming off layoffs have been finishing 4th or worse on a daily basis, lately. The Gotham looks like the most unusual race, the San Felipe has a lot of entrants with similar records, and a turf horse who helped me when he raced last time and won.
I couldnt rank more than 4 horses coming out of the race. I dont know how far he wants to go. Pedigree says shorter.
Thanks, it might be hard to find the next race for him.
I was hoping for better for Giant Mischief because he’s one of my future bet horses. But he had nothing left in the stretch and finished 6th. Name a derby winner (I should say, a derby 1st-place finisher) that was off the board in one of the last two preps.
STEVE IM JOEDERBY U CANT BAN me for some funny comment 2 weeks ago that would be like BANNING BILLY GRAHAM from church
I dont ban anyone. It’s not my website. But if you say something vulgar and insulting like that again I would certainly expect you to be banned. That wasn’t funny, it was very bad taste. I hope you normally dont talk to women like that.
Mr. Fisk is interesting in the San Felipe and should be a price. He finished a closing second to Reincarnate at one mile and galloped out in front. He cameback in early January and beat Harlocap also at a mile. Pedigree is loaded, should like more distance.
Yes it was too late to write about him. Had to do a lot of revising after copy was sent.
Hi Steve – Disarm must have bounced out of his Allow race 8 days ago really well because he breezed 4 furlongs in an easy 51 seconds today at the FG. I like you believe next out he will greatly improve after shaking off the 6 month rust from the layoff of his MSW romp at SAR. He will need to improve his BSF at least 10 points to contend for the win in the ARK Derby, but with several workouts to go before the APR 1 ARK Derby, you know Steve A will have him ready to fire a big shot.
I just wish he had two more races. I saw today he worked but it wasnt enough to make me add it. I almost ranked him but decided to hold off until we see what this weekend brings.