Derby Rankings: Week 7
Lots of changes this week, including a new and exciting name, and because of the three major stakes on Saturday we have extended the Rankings to a Top 20 to include some new faces who could emerge and make their presence felt on the Derby trail. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Mar. 1, 2022 – Week 7
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
Looking at his Thoro-Graph numbers from the Risen Star, his “2 ½” was the same number the victorious Epicenter received, but what I liked most was that it pretty much verified his “2” in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which was a good jump from his “7 ¼” in his career debut. What all that means is that his Kentucky Jockey Club leap was legitimate and now that he has basically paired up strong numbers he should move forward in his final prep, and it would only take a slight improvement to set him up for a peak performance on the first Saturday in May. In order to get that slight improvement and subsequent peak performance he has to be allowed to use his strength, which is to sit four or five lengths off the lead and then make that big move on the turn to put him right up there with leaders turning for home. I have no idea what Lanerie’s strategy was in the Risen Star but all he has to do is watch a replay of the Kentucky Jockey Club and his maiden victory and just ride him the same way rather than taking him farther back and then sitting motionless on him all the way to the head of the stretch. By then he was hopelessly out of it.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
As I figured he did get the fastest Thoro-Graph number in the Risen Star. You can’t ask for a more steady improvement with each race, as he went from a “6 ½” to a “4 ½” to a “2 ¼.” I am looking forward to seeing what kind of number he can run with a clean trip. He nearly got shoved into the rail by Irad Otiz in the Remsen and still was beaten only a nose. I have no idea what the NYRA stewards were looking at when they failed to disqualify Mo Donegal and suspend Ortiz for another reckless ride. Then he hopped in the air at the start of the Risen Star and dropped back to last instead of sitting right off Epicenter. It was the wide trip he had that enabled him to get a faster number than Epicenter despite getting beat 3 ¼ lengths. No one really has any idea how good he and Smile Happy are with only three career starts, so all you can do is speculate based on their Thoro-Graph pattern and what you’ve seen visually, just as you did with American Pharoah, who had only three career starts at this time and didn’t make his 3-year-old debut until March 14. Justify didn’t make his career debut until February 18. In this day and age you just never know.
3—Rattle N Roll (Ken McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
He followed up his five-furlong work in :59 1/5 last week with a :58 3/5 drill, second fastest of 42 works at the distance. He is going to face some talented horses in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes, and as I have said about Smile Happy and Zandon, he doesn’t have to win this race, as long as he is coming fast in the stretch. But McPeek has him razor sharp and he is very capable of winning even if they did make him sixth choice at 12-1. If McPeek had decided to run him a week earlier in the Rebel instead of Dash Attack I believe he would have had no trouble beating those horses for a million bucks. The Fountain of Youth is not the ideal spot for him on that track and with the short stretch. He is very close to being ranked No. 1; the only thing keeping him from it has been his inactivity since October. If he can turn in the same kind of explosive run he did in the Breeders’ Futurity while coming off a 4 ½-month layoff it would be difficult to keep him out of the top spot.
4—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
I love the fact that after back-to-back “5 ½ ” Thoro-Graph numbers, which were a career high, he improved to a “2 ½” in the Risen Star going 1 1/8 miles. So how far can he carry his speed? He gets most of his speed from his sire side through top-class sprinters Trippi, Great Above, and Ta Wee, but his paternal grandsire Giant’s Causeway was one of the best 1 ¼-mile hoses in the world. On the female side, Epicenter’s broodmare sire Candy Ride set a new track record winning the 1 ¼-mile Pacific Classic, and Candy Ride’s grandsire Cryptoclearance was a multiple stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles and was second in the Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. In the bottom half of his pedigree you have English 2,000 Guineas winner King of Kings; the great Sadler’s Wells; Ela-Mana-Mou, winner of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Eclipse Stakes and third in the Arc de Triomphe; and Busted, also winner of the King George and Eclipse Stakes, who sired St. Leger and Coronation Cup winner Bustino. It is those European classic-distance horses that enable him to carry his speed and come home in fast fractions. That makes it tough on his opponents, who can only hope there will be someone fast enough to not only run with him early, but stay with him long enough to slow him down in the stretch.
5—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
The feeling here is that he will be heavily bet in the Fountain of Youth. If the intentions are to go to the lead from post 2 or press the pace following the Holy Bull debacle he will have to deal with the speedy Pasco winner Markhamian breaking inside him and Howling Time, who has shown some early lick, directly outside him. He is fast, but Markhamian has sprinter’s speed who has run his halfs in :44 and change. And of course there is Emmanuel, an easy wire-to-wire winner in both his starts, breaking farther out in post 8, as well as a couple of others with speed. So although he used his speed to win the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, getting left at the gate in the Holy Bull and closing from last to get second might have given his connections confidence that he can be just as effective coming from off the pace and that will be his strategy on Saturday. If he can lay just off the speed and close, as he did in the Holy Bull that will make him even more formidable. His five-furlong work in a leisurely 1:02 3/5 suggests we will see him come from off the pace this time. But the speed is there if he needs to use it.
6—White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
He finally returned to the work tab with an easy three-furlong blowout in :36 1/5 and was strong coming down the stretch. Because he wasn’t 100 percent fit going into the Holy Bull and still ran such a powerful race, Joseph gave him a little three-week vacation, as he has plenty of time before the Florida Derby. Although his Thoro-Graph numbers have shown slight improvement every race he still needs to improve off his career best “5” in the Holy Bull. Let’s keep remembering that his four main contenders in that race had issues and were never a factor. He is going to face a much tougher field in the Florida Derby and will be going up against horses who have far better Thoro-Graph numbers. And he will be coming off a two-month layoff. I believe he is a very talented horse who does all the right things, but he still has to prove himself against top-class horses and show that distance should not be a problem.
7—Secret Oath (Arrogate – Absenthe Minded, by Quiet American)
I normally would never consider ranking a filly, especially with no points, but we are dealing with Wayne Lukas. In typical fashion, Lukas is playing it cool, saying right now they are looking at the Fantasy for Secret Oath and the Arkansas Derby with Rebel runner-up Ethereal Road, but added they are leaving their options open, and he did mention how much faster Secret Oath ran in the Honeybee Stakes than the boys did in the Rebel and that she did it under cruise control. I have known Lukas for 35 years and I have seen how bold he can be, especially with fillies, such as Winning Colors, Lady’s Secret, Serena’s Song, Althea, and a number of others who were successful against the boys. He loves doing things others wouldn’t think of doing and I can see Lukas, at age 86, being daring one more time, especially with a filly this special and in a year when there are no real standouts. I’m not sure he can pass up this opportunity at this stage of his career. If he goes the Oaks route no harm done. As for Secret Oath, not only did she run a full second faster than the colts in the Rebel, she again coasted home an easy winner by 7 ½ lengths after having to steady behind horses nearing the top of the stretch. In her last three starts she has demonstrated an explosive turn of foot that propels her to a clear lead in the blink of an eye. In the Rebel they ran the first three-quarters in 1:14 1/5 compared to 1:12 4/5 in the Honeybee. After blowing her fields away by 8 ¼ lengths, 7 ¼ lengths, and 7 ½ lengths, she no doubt has inherited the power and brilliance of her sire. In her only poor effort I am guessing she bled because Lukas put her on Lasix for her next start in which she romped, and then like an old-fashioned trainer took her off it. We’ll see what happens, but for now she is too exciting to leave off, and I wouldn’t have ranked her if she were trained by anyone but the old daredevil.
8—High Oak (Bill Mott, Gormley – Champagne Sue, by Elusive Quality)
Taking a big shot debuting him this high despite not having run since the Hopeful Stakes, but I thought this colt could be a star in the making when he trounced eventual Hopeful winner Gunite in the Saratoga Special, but he suffered an injury in the Hopeful. He has been turning in some sensational works over the deep Payson Park track, especially his most recent five-furlong drill in a bullet 1:01 4/5 that had his jockey Junior Alvarado raving about him. And for Bill Mott, who has been extremely high on him since day one, bringing him back in a loaded 12-horse Fountain of Youth Stakes off a six-month layoff and never having run two turns shows you just how much he thinks of him and how confident he is that he has him primed and ready for a big effort. You never know how a horse is going to return off an injury and this long a layoff, but all signs indicate he is sitting on a big effort, so I’ll go out on a limb and put him in the Rankings and see just how much progress he’s made and if he is as talented as his connections believe he is. If they are right then No. 8 is a perfect launching pad to a much higher ranking.
9—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
Pletcher can’t be happy with him drawing post 12 in the Fountain of Youth, which is not where you want to be at Gulfstream, especially with a horse who likes to run anywhere from two and four lengths off the lead. To be parked in the far outside gate with a short run to the first turn it makes you wonder if Pletcher might consider scratching him and waiting for the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby and taking his chances there. This is not what you would call a quick-footed horse. It can take him a while to find his best stride, so this is far from an ideal spot for him. If Pletcher does run him you would think he feels the timing is perfect for him and is just hoping he gets some luck and can get in the fray without losing too much ground. He did turn in a solid enough half-mile work in :49 1/5, so we’ll see what transpires over the next few days.
10—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
He had his first work since his victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, breezing a half in :48 2/5. We know he has good speed and there is little question about his stamina. As mentioned before his Thoro-Graph numbers seem to be stuck at “5” and that will have to improve, but we know he has sprinter’s speed from his brilliant maiden victory at Saratoga, which he won by 6 ½ lengths in a sprightly 1:22 3/5 for the seven furlongs. He then had the misfortune of running into Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy, who handled him with ease, creating questions of this colt’s finishing power. That is why his victory in the Sam Davis was so important, as it showed he could battle through quick fractions and still finish. The only questions are the competition he beat and what he will do when he faces the leading Derby contenders. And of course if he has progressed enough to be competitive against the McPeek pair. The Tampa Bay Derby should tell us if he can take another step forward and improve his Thoro-Graph numbers.
11—Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
With only two career starts and no stakes appearances, the Fountain of Youth is his big opportunity to show that all the hype and all the high rankings have been justified. He hasn’t beaten much and his only victory against winners came at Tampa Bay Downs, so what makes him so highly regarded and why has he been bet so heavily in the Derby Future Wager? Yes, it’s Pletcher and yes both of his victories have been walks in the park, but it is the visual aspect of his performances that attracted me from the beginning and why he’s been ranked in the Top 10 or close to it every week. When you base it on that it is pure speculation because he really hasn’t accomplished anything of note or faced anyone of note. We have seen many brilliant unproven horses fall apart when they step up in class, and there is no telling if he will be one of them. And he will be coming off Lasix. So all we can do is see if all the signs he has given are for real and he is indeed a budding star. He most likely will not have the easy lead he’s had in his two races, so this will also be his big test to see if he can be adaptable enough to be placed anywhere.
12—Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Smitten, by Tapit)
I still like this colt a lot and am impressed with what he has accomplished so far, but it’s time to produce. And that time will come on March 12 at Tampa Bay, the day of the Tampa Bay Derby, when he runs in a maiden race as a prep for the Wood Memorial. Needless to say you don’t see Grade 1-placed horses running in maiden races at Tampa Bay Downs, so it’s again needless to say he has to win that race or at the very least run a super second to some hotshot highly regarded colt. He worked five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 following a 1:01 3/5 work last week so I would assume he’s ready to run his A game. He is a horse with a long sustained run rather than a quick turn of foot, but obviously we don’t know how he wants to win because he hasn’t won yet. I am hoping we learn a lot more about him in the maiden race other than him just winning. At least this race should add some interest to the Tampa Bay Derby card.
13—Call Me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux, Midnight Lute – Overseen, by First Defence)
He has been playing it cool since his surprising victory in the Lecomte Stakes at 28-1 and now is living off his accomplishment of having beaten Epicenter, even if was by a nose in a perfect setup race. But he did beat him and has to be respected. He has been content to work easy half miles in :50 1/5, :49, and :51 1/5 as he prepares for the Louisiana Derby. For now he has to remain a question mark having turned in three impressive performances and finishing out of the money four times. His pedigree also is a question mark and is borderline as far as stamina goes, so we’ll just keep him around here depending on what others do and wait to see how he handles the 1 3/16 miles and if his Lecomte victory was legitimate.
14—Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Pioneerof the Nile – Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya)
You never know how quickly a 3-year-old is going to come into his own this time of year, and if you were surprised how big he ran in the Risen Star at odds of 33-1 it is because his Thoro-Graph number catapulted from a “10 ½” to a “3.” With a leap that big it’s a question whether he will regress in his next start, pair it up, or even improve off it. That will tell us just how serious a Derby horse he is. His pedigree is loaded with stamina top and bottom and his third dam was a Grade 1 winner in Chile. He has run five times at five different distances at four different racetracks, so you know he is adaptable as well as consistent. Most of the talk in the Pletcher barn has been about Emmanuel and Mo Donegal and some of the impressive maiden and allowance winners, but his guy could very well be a sleeper who is improving with every start.
15—Ethereal Road (Wayne Lukas, Quality Road – Sustained by War Front)
I have to admit I’m not thrilled with races like the Rebel Stakes, where you can’t separate the first three horses, and if you rank one you have to rank all three, not having a clue if any of them are really serious Derby horses. In addition to running a full second slower than the filly Secret Oath it seemed as if this race was won only because someone had to win it. He looked as if he was in complete control in the stretch, as Un Ojo and Barber Road were doing nothing behind him. Then he seemed to put it in neutral and let one get up to beat him near the wire and one to almost nail him for second. But of the three, I was most impressed with him, as he raced wide the whole way while they both saved ground, and I fully expect him to get a faster Thoro-Graph number than the winner. I also like that he was about 15 lengths closer to the pace this time than in his explosive victory last time out and still was able to close. However, I was dismayed that the winner went into the race off an “8 ¼” Thoro-Graph number and he went in off a “9.” Did both horses make huge improvement or was this simply a slow race? We’ll find out when the figures are released. I also don’t like the fact that he seemed to have this race won and gave it away in the final yards, but I will give that a pass because he traveled so much farther than Un Ojo and Barber Road.
16—Un Ojo (Ricky Courville, Laoban – Risk a Chance, by A.P. Indy)
As I said I have to lump all three of the Rebel horses together and I can’t rank them any higher than this. I do think he has improved since his second-place finish in the Withers Stakes behind a very good horse in Early Voting and he would have been ranked above Ethereal Road if he didn’t have such a perfect ground-saving trip and tons of room on the rail. After his Withers performance I think he was grossly overlooked at 75-1. He shouldn’t have anywhere near that in this field. He looked beaten at the sixteenth pole and I’m not sure if he found a bit more at the end or Ethereal Road opened the door for him by failing to sustain his run after having a much wider trip. People seem to love one-eyed horses and he is even named One Eye in Spanish. Probably the most unique thing about him is that last year he was a New York-bred running at Delta Downs. All these horses are going to have to sort themselves out in the Arkansas Derby. I learned very little from the Rebel.
17—Barber Road (John Ortiz, Race Day – Encounter, by Southern Image)
He has a great story coming from humble beginnings, as did his dam. Now if he can only figure out a way to win a race. Since breaking his maiden for a $30,000 claiming tag and then romping in a starter allowance race he has three consecutive second-place finishes in stakes and a fast-closing third in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes. But his performance actually was difficult to figure out. Like the winner he saved ground all the way and despite being hit a number of times left-handed in the stretch he was not making up any ground. It seemed obvious he was not going to catch the top three, so Reylu Gutierrez put the whip away and appeared to let him finish on his own, and when he did, Barber Road found another gear and quickly took off, prompting Gutierrez to go back to the whip. He was flying at the end, just missing second, but I can’t tell if he suddenly found this late surge on his own or the race just slowed down at the end. The bottom line is that he found another way to look good and still get beat. I admire this colt and his consistency and back story, but I just can’t figure him out.
18—In Due Time (Kelly Breen, Not This Time, Sweet Sweet Annie, by Curlin)
Another who is about to face his biggest test in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. I don’t know good those two Pletcher horses are that he blew away in his last start, but if they are good then chances are he’s for real, especially earning a 100 Equibase speed figure and jumping from an “8 ¾” to a “3” on Thoro-Graph. He seems to have a high cruising speed and can close off it, and he should take up a good striking position breaking from post 4. I don’t know what to expect from him moving way up in class, but the way he ran last time it would not surprise me if he made his presence felt and was competitive with these horses. He is another who will be coming off Lasix. As mentioned last week he is a complete outcross through his first five generations, so that is something else that is different about him.
19—Giant Game (Dale Romans, Giant’s Causeway – Game For More, by More Than Ready)
I don’t believe there was a bigger shock this year than his 24-length drubbing in the Holy Bull Stakes at odds of 4-1. It was his first start since his excellent third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he was coming off a maiden victory. In the Holy Bull, he was in perfect position early and then just stopped and quickly dropped out of it. When a good horse does that it usually is a sign that he bled or had a breathing problem, and that seems to be the case here. The important thing is that he’s come back with two strong works, including a :59 flat drill for five furlongs, and if we see the same horse we saw in the Breeders’ Cup then he could wind up being the overlay of the year, as he no doubt will be big odds, as he was at Del Mar. Romans always seems to be live on the Derby trail every year, but it never works out for one reason or another. Maybe this year he will spring a surprise attack when you least expect it. Don’t count him out.
20—Forbidden Kingdom (Dick Mandella, American Pharoah – Just Louise, by Five Star Day)
This is one fast horse, perhaps too fast to be considered a Derby horse. If he can win this race he will have beaten five Bob Baffert-trained horses in his last two starts, which is ironic considering Baffert trained him for a while before he was taken away from him. Mandella feels he has to give him a chance to see if he can stretch out to two turns, but having a gone a half in a blazing :43 1/5 in the Bob Hope Stakes two races back he is going to have to harness some of that speed going two turns. He had a serious tuneup for the San Felipe, working seven furlongs in company in 1:25 flat, as Mandella tries to build up his stamina. Breaking off six lengths behind his workmate, he collared him at the head of the stretch and the pair raced head and head down the lane, finishing together with Forbidden Kingdom just unable to get his head in front at the wire and in the gallop-out. He may not have things his own way this time with the presence of another sprinter in Beautiful Art, who is fast, but not nearly as fast as Forbidden Kingdom. But he could make Forbidden Kingdom go faster than he wants. It all comes down to how rateable he is and good the two Baffert horses are.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
After being ranked for several weeks MESSIER has to be dropped until we find out what’s going on already with all the Baffert horses and the bans, suspensions, stay of suspension denial, appeals, and law suits, and I can’t wait until the Santa Anita Derby to see who is training him and if he even is being considered for the Kentucky Derby. The owners are intent on playing it cool by giving up points all winter and going down to the final prep before making a decision about going in the Derby and finding other trainers. If they do want to go in the Derby they are playing Russian roulette by relying on one race, a new trainer, and an uneventful trip to get in the Derby. Let’s just say the first four letters of this horse’s name tell it all. If Messier, who I believe is as talented as any of these and likely would be ranked No. 1 any other year, remained on the Rankings what do you do if Baffert wins or even runs one-two in Saturday’s San Felipe with DOPPELGANGER and ARMAGNAC, both of whom he is very high on and who look to have promising futures, especially Doppelganger stretching out to two turns. And what if he runs ROCKEFLLER, who is listed as probable by NYRA, in the Gotham and wins that? Then it really gets messy. NEWGRANGE took himself off the Rankings with a disappointing effort in the Rebel Stakes.
Speaking of Baffert, whatever you wish to make of it, Del Mar Futurity winner and San Vicente runner-up PINEHURST scored a gutsy victory in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby over a mile, holding off several challenges. He could be an interesting Preakness horse, whoever is training him, if they wish to stretch him out or they can keep him at one turn, which seems to be what he prefers.
I have been raving about MORELLO for the past few weeks as a potential star. Although I didn’t have room for him on the Rankings with so much going on I fully expect him to crack the Top 10 with a victory in the Gotham Stakes. I know he’s up against Rockefeller and some other good ones, but he was extremely impressive in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes and if he improves even a little off that race then it’s on to the Wood Memorial. But with only two career starts everything will have to go perfectly for him.
STRAIGHT UP G landed his first win in open company wiring his field in the Mine That Bird Derby, but he again showed distance limitations by just hanging on to win by three-quarters of a length, coming home his last sixteenth in :07. He is going to win a lot of races, but as of now I don’t see him as a Derby horse.
Although he finished seventh in the Southwest Stakes at 90-1 racing wide the entire race, you had to be impressed with CALL ME JAMAL, who won a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Saturday after being bottled up in traffic most of the way and then surging to the front in the final furlong to win going away by 2 ½ lengths and running a fifth of a second faster than the Rebel Stakes. He has four Belmont Stakes winners in his first three generations, including the rarely seen Risen Star, a son of Secretariat, to whom he is inbred 4 x 4. Trained by Mike Puhich, he could be an interesting one to keep an eye on.
Also at Oaklawn on Saturday, CURLY TAIL, a son of Curlin, was relentless down the stretch, just getting up to win by a half-length and finally breaking his maiden in his sixth try. His 1:45 3/5 for the 1 1/16 miles equaled the time of the Rebel Stakes.
Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile maiden race at Gulfstream did not seem to be much of a race on paper with four horses in a blanket finish and a final time of 1:51 1/5, but watching the race there was a great deal more to take from it, as the winner ICONIC ADVENTURE got hung six-wide on the first turn, raced very wide the rest of the way, and was game in the stretch to score by a half-length, making this a far better performance than it looked. Owned and bred by Godolphin and trained by Bill Mott, the son of Ghostzapper seems to have made great strides from 2 to 3.
There are several other Fountain of Youth horses who cannot go overlooked. One of them is HOWLING TIME, yet another horse coming out of the live Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The fact that he hasn’t run since that race is enough to throw out his performance, in which he went to lead for the first time and tired. Before that he was very impressive winning the Street Sense Stakes from off the pace, and if you’re looking for a horse who has been lighting up the track in the morning, this colt has turned in three straight super quick works indicating he is razor-sharp for his return. Toss the Kentucky Jockey Club and he could be any kind.
One other horse in the Fountain of Youth I want to mention is the rail horse MARKHAMIAN, winner of the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes. Why he doesn’t return to Tampa for the Tampa Bay Derby I have no idea. Perhaps it was his bullet five-furlong work at Gulfstream in 1:00 2/5. He is not bred to sprint and should be able to handle the two turns, so we’ll see if he shows his usual speed from the rail with Simplification directly outside him or if they try to rate him.
This year’s Derby trail has not gone the way Mark Casse planned. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up PAPPACAP threw in a clunker in the Risen Star, which was unusual for a horse who has been so consistent is entire career. Casse said he is baffled by his performance and because it was so bad he is going to assume it was an aberration; just a bad day, and possibly give him another shot in the Florida Derby
Casse sent out three horses in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, with VOLCANIC finishing a strong third, GOD OF LOVE fifth and GOLDEN GLIDER sixth. Volcanic will go next in either the Blue Grass Stakes or Wood Memorial, Golden Glider will return to Tampa for the Tampa Bay Derby, and God of Love, a proven synthetic horse, will run in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Casse also will run GLIDER, a distant second to the highly regarded Emmanuel last out, in the Gotham Stakes.
TIZ THE BOMB, who is headed for the Polytack at Turfway Park, breezed a half in :48 at Silverleaf Hills training center. Pletcher’s Iroquois Stakes winner MAJOR GENERAL is nearing his 3-year-old debut, breezing five furlongs in 1:02 1/5.
Probables for Saturday’s Gotham Stakes are: DEAN’S LIST (Todd Pletcher), EAGLE IN LOVE (Rob Atras), FROMANUTHAMUTHA (Ray Handal), GLIDER (Mark Casse), GOLDEN CODE (Todd Pletcher), MORELLO (Steve Asmussen), NONEEDTOWORRY (Herold Whylie), and ROCKEFELLER (Bob Baffert), with possibles BOLD JOURNEY (Bill Mott) and LIFE IS GREAT (Robert Klesaris).
Did Todd Pletcher have 19 starters on Saturday and secured zero win?
Did Bob Baffert’s Rockefeller finish last by 47 1/4L in the Gotham?
The two trainers have combined for 11 Eclipse Awards for outstanding trainer. It just got to show that Horse Racing is a tough game.
96 Beyer number for Morello, that is PERFECT….now all he needs is one more step up—in the Wood Memorial—his first two turn race–his race spacing and gradual longer distances are just how it is drawn up—a first or second in the Wood—maybe a slight Beyer upgrade—and Morello will be sniffing the roses! Simplification got a 96 Beyer also, and runs on left lead….most of the big preps have been won on the lead–Morello RATES, and rates well! Morello is starting to check all the boxes!
At nice odds, he could be a good bet in the Derby — assuming a bang-up effort in the Wood. He moved like a Derby horse yesterday. On the debit side, is just a single 2-turn race enough for a Derby win? I believe that only one horse since at least 1970 finished first in the Derby after having just a single two-turn race (all surfaces considered). That was Maximum Security. Also, considering the NY and Wood hex, Asmussen may have just been looking for a softer race for Morello and doesn’t think he’s quite ready for prime time. Has Asmussen ever prepped in NY? Of course, with his Derby record, he may be looking to change things up.
Yes the stats are against him, they also might help with his price!
Newgrange –
Undefeated in 3 starts that up to the Rebel included the Sham (G3) and Southwest (G3). As the favorite in the Rebel returning $.80 on the dollar. He finished 6th by 4 1/4L. He won at OK Park on his previous visit.
Rockefeller –
Winner of 2 from 3 starts up to the Gotham that included the Nashua (G3). He was also runner up in the Sham (G3). As the 2nd choice in the Gotham, he finished 47l last. He won on his previous visit to NY.
Doppelganger and Armagnac
Forbidden Kingdom inflicted 5 1/4L and 27 1/4l defeats on the respective colts above.. It is likely that with Johnnie V being the first call rider for the stable. He would have the choice of the best of the 2 entrants in the race. His mount was in receipt of a 27 1/4L shellacking.
The Bob Baffert loyalist are of the opinion his horses need to be in the KD as he is the face of the race. Will any of the above 4 be missed in they are not in the KD starting gates? They appear to be in decline and/or not good enough to win the KD. But let’s not forget. Medina Spirit was beaten 8L & 4 1/4 and appeared to be the unlikely winner of the KD.
On Derby day he showed up and was not for catching. Folks, this is one of the reason Bob Baffert will always be under suspicion. The miraculous form reversal of many of his horse in the KD cannot be attributed to training. But many think he is a genius and one that is being bullied.
It’s called horse racing and not logical racing.
Prat is heading to ride Keeneland after March—then on to Belmont and then Saratoga……his agent says he wants the Eclipse Award…..Rispoli also is heading back there, and sooner.
Excellent news, although perhaps not so for California. Europe must be on his mind as well.
As it stands now, my top ten contenders on the Derby trail are as follows.
1) Simplification
2) Epicenter
3) Forbidden Kingdom
4) Smile Happy
5) White Abarrio
6) Classic Causeway
7) In Due Time
8) Morello
9) Zandon
10) Messier
Now that Simplification has secured enough points to make the Derby starting gate, I have a “chance” to make big money on my Derby Futures bets. The fact that Simplification stayed on his left lead throughout the running of the FOY, and the Holy Bull as well, could be a concern moving forward, as the distance increases. We’ll see.
Hu Bill,
The last time I commented on EddeF’s KD list it appears he wasn’t too happy. I didn’t read his response, but I gathered from your take, that I am cable of defending myself, that he wasn’t appreciated of m comments. I meant neither harm nor offence.
Let me take this opportunity to state that I am merely providing my perspective based on my analysis of the available cold facts. I am in no way being critical of the analysis you used to arrive at your rankings.
A notable omission from your lists is Rattle and Roll. As previously states. I considered his #3 ranking and hype not in sync with his ability. He probably hasn’t recovered from his injury. Irrespective, I never saw him as talented as Steve and man assessed him to be.
Simplification won an incident marred FOY in a slow time. His assigned Equibase figure for the win was 93 as compared to the 95 he was assigned for his HB runner up finish. His figures are therefore trending in the wrong direction.
The last FOY winner to win the KD was Orb. His winning time for the FOY was 1:42.24. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 105. Before Orb there was Thunder Gulch whose winning time was 1:43.21. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 109. From the perspective of Equibase figures. The 93 assigned to Simplification is the lowest in the last 20 renewals of the FOY.
What does above cold facts indicate. Simplification is unlikely to emerge the winner of KD 2022. Further, the colt seems unwilling to change leads at a crucial point in his races. Many are of the opinion that if Alydar was not plagued by the same problem he would have won at least one of the TC races with Affirmed. It is unlikely with Simplification with his numbers can win the KD without changing leads. I do not believe he has the talent advantage to so do. But as usual stats do not run races, horses do, and they can rise to the occasion.
You know my views on Epicenter. I think he is the current leader of the division. This is despite his #4 ranking assigned by Steve. His win in the RS was ultra-impressive but not given the quality rating it deserves.
I know very little about Forbidden Kingdom. But he seems to be a nice colt. Anytime there is a colt in CA that is beating BB’s charges. It should be taken seriously ala I’ll Have Another. He was sired by a KD winner which makes him an automatic toss form the top spot for me. He doesn’t appear to have a lot of stamina in his dam line. He has won with uncontested leads against what appear to be slow opponents, even those from the barn of BB. But again, my nonsense is just that.
EddieF hates when I state that Smile Happy is vulnerable to classy high cruisers that can accelerate out of their cruising speed and hold through the lane to the line. But that’s exactly the kind of colt he is. For the first time in his races, another opponent closed with him. If Zanon wasn’t compromised by a poor start. He wouldn’t have out run that colt to the line. But he has a running style that should the pace breaks down. He could capitalize. But he isn’t alone in this category.
I am still waiting to see a few more prospects run their 2nd 3YO race, including my dark horse Gilded Age. The Tampa Bay Derby will provide Golden Glider, another colt that I am closely watching, with an opportunity to get into the Derby picture.
Your list appears to cover the top contenders. But as a longshot hunter the other 10 is where I am focussed.
As usual it’s my pleasure.
CF, you push one agenda here.
Hey Facts
Regarding Simplification not changing to the correct lead in the stretch run, one thing to keep in mind, he’s still maturing.
I suspect Sano will address that issue in the upcoming weeks, during his training regimen, prior to the Fla. Derby.
With respect to final time and the 93 Equibase Speed Figure that Simplification was assigned for his FOY win, the early fractions with moderate, at best, which Jose Ortiz wisely held back, waiting to make a late run approaching the far turn. In other words, the final time (1:44.04) is of little consequence, Simplification won the race on his terms. If in fact the early fractions would have been faster, I’m convinced he would have made a similar late run, winning the race in impressive fashion. BTW, did you notice he had a very strong gallop out?
Regarding RNR not making my current top ten list, I dropped him due to his disappointing performance in the FOY. How he responds coming out of the FOY is anybody’s guess.
EVERY HORSE—-is vulnerable to “classy high cruisers that can accelerate…”.
If the connections of O Captain decides to run him in the Florida Derby,
“Watch Out!” This maybe a good pick as the distance gets longer.
He looked great in the FOY this past weekend finishing in the trifecta.
What I really like about him is that he has another gear in which he was about
to switch to but ran out of track. He’s a dangerous horse IMO. And if I’m right
I plan on seeing him on your Top 10 list but if I’m wrong, well nevermind.
Yesterday was a marathon day of racing that started just before 10:30am when I checked the scratches and changes at Gulfstream. After the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway last night, I looked at the clock and it was 8:30pm. That’s 10 hours of looking at races in the Form and on my bigscreen. 21 races at four different tracks. That’s crazy! Mercifully, we only have one(1) Derby Points Prep race next Saturday. The Tampa Bay Derby which is another 50-pointer. Steve Haskin has pointed out that Classic Causeway hasn’t really moved forward numbers-wise from his 2-year old season. So, I’ll be looking forward to seeing if he can improve next week. Let’s see who shows up to oppose him.
Belgrade could be one to watch for in the TB Derby. Funny about the 10 Hours of Racing. I had other things going on yesterday and only had time for the Fountain of Youth. It was the only race that I bet….for the whole day. 😮
With all the hullaballoo about BB not being able to run horses in The Derby, I have to ask: how many Derby horses does he really have? Messier? I want to see him run a second race like his Robert B. Lewis win. Could BB’s best prospect for May 6th & & 7th in Louisville be the filly Adare Manor?
Baffert knows hot to actually train for a specific race target. Any horse he puts into the starting gate in KD is well prepped for the grueling race at such a young age. Baffert currently has the two fastest 3 year olds in his barn per beyer numbers. Unleashing if Tiaba was impressive with a 103 beyer. Congrats
Jeff, sounds like same tune. Deal with realization BB won’t be running first Sat. in May.
And he pushes horses for sure!
He has NO Derby prospect, TommyMc. But I’m sure you’re asking which of the horses currently in his barn would be Derby prospects with another trainer. The answer to that may well be…only Messier.
Agree! None.
The big question for the next Derby Rankings is…does Smile Happy stay at #1 while others continue to impress with prep wins? My guess is he stays at the top until he performs below expectations. So here’s my prediction: 1) Smile Happy, 2) Zandon, 3) Simplification, 4) Epicenter, 5) White Abarrio, 6) Secret Oath, 7) Morello, 8) Forbidden Kingdom, 9) Mo Donegal, 10) Classic Causeway, 11) In Due Time, 12) Commandperformance.
Any word on where Brad Cox’s Zozos will run next? I’m hoping it’s the Arkansas Derby. Shades of Justify? — with a debut maiden win, an allowance win, and a big final prep, all in the same year.
DRF reported that Cox is leaning toward the Louisiana Derby for Zozos and Arkansas for Cyberknife.
I don’t like the distance of the LA Derby for the very very lightly raced Zozos. I wish I had Brad Cox’s phone number. 😉
Eddie, nice going, good pick.
Thanks!
I expect Steve will have a few surprises in store for us. All three winners were impressive, but I was intrigued enough by Forbidden Kingdom’s win to do a little pedigree research on him. He’s from the same (obscure) female family as TIZNOW, although having the same 6th/7th dam is pretty distant. That said, his immediate female family is loaded with graded stakes winners (TIL FORBID, SCOOP, SARA LOUISE, SOFTLY, JUST LOUISE). All but Forbidden Kingdom’s dam Just Louise won graded stakes at a mile or more.
Female pedigree aside, that horse runs a lot like his daddy. Who is to say he won’t run all the way to Louisville and win it all?
After past luck… to now see Mandela with a real KD hope in his barn gives balance to the game. All that colt’s talent directed by a guy with such knack and experience… him getting the distance today only confirms sometimes matches are meant to be.
Right now Richards on the lead to the KD gate… However, there’s something about him that tells me he’s not the kind of trainer that’s comfortable with being on the KD a lead. Today’s race should help with that… his horse seemed to like the lead, as he proved the race was never in doubt.
I hope Forbidden Kingdom just up and takes Mandela to Louisville… Sometimes when horses are so very special trainers can do nothing but just stand back and get out of their way…
I hope FK is that kind of colt… in that case the trainer’s job could just be choosing the right hat.
After past luck… to now see Mandela with a real KD hope in his barn gives balance to the game. All that colt’s talent directed by a guy with such knack and experience… him getting the distance today only confirms sometimes matches are meant to be.
Right now Richards on the lead to the KD gate… However, there’s something about him that tells me he’s not the kind of trainer that’s comfortable with being on the KD a lead. Today’s race should help with that… his horse seemed to like the lead, as he proved the race was never in doubt.
I hope Forbidden Kingdom just up and takes Mandela to Louisville… Sometimes when horses are so very special trainers can do nothing but just stand back and get out of their way…
i hope FK that kind of colt… in that case such a trainer’s job could be choosing the right hat.
Taiba…..Santa Anita had some good races today, the Kilroe Mile was one of the best I’ve seen here, ever—and the straight and strong lumbering Express Train got the Big Cap…..great day! Don’t sleep on Taiba, maiden winner by Gun Runner…big finish!
:24 1/5 last quarter, :12 last 1/8—on dirt….first start…
Taiba got a 103 Beyer number (Forbidden Kingdom got a 98)
Wow. Bob sure knows how to get them ready.
Like Newgrange in the Rebel and Rockefeller in the Gotham
It’s rare to see a debut number like that, even if it’s in the 3yo season. However, all that can be said is that it’s a great number for a sprint.
The dam of Taiba, Needmore Flattery, was a win machine in Ohio. I always felt she had the potential to be a good broodmare. She had 39 starts so, sound as well. Good for Needmore Flattery.
I’m calling it from the cheap seats: Morello #1 Week #8….;.
Hey Matthew W
I’m calling it from the box seats: Simplification #1 Week #8, and Epicenter #2 Week 8.
Rattle N Roll drops down considerably, Smile Happy drops to #3 and Zandon drops to #4.
Simplification proved he can rate, and close from off the pace, just as he did today, in the FOY, and as he did in the Holy Bull.
More than likely he inherits his impressive tactical speed from his sire, Not This Time and his stamina influence from his dam’s sire, Candy Ride.
IMO, as it stands now, Simplification and his half-brother, Epicenter, are the top two contenders on the Derby trail.
Smile Happy and Zandon will have to prove they belong at #1, and #2 moving forward in their next race.
As for Morello, it will be interesting to see where our host places him in Week 8.
Another thing about today–Santa Anita was not fast–:45 and change in San Felipe and horse just has an answer/another gear is pretty solid…the stock on Forbidden Kingdom and Morrelo both went up today!…it now becomes the question, WHO goes with Forbidden Kingdom, and LOSES…..or does this one have his own way for a half, or does that even matter??!!….
It looks like a showdown between Forbidden Kingdom and Messier in The Santa Anita Derby on April 9th. Forbidden Kingdom proved that he is much more than a sprinter yesterday. He looked like a BB horse the way that he blew them all away. People will say that he didn’t beat much in The San Felipe, but, that’s unfair. He can only beat what they run against him. If he can pass the mile and an eighth test in The Santa Anita Derby, it will be on to Louisville where speedsters White Abarrio, Classic Causeway, and Epicenter could be waiting. Maybe one or two of them will drop off the trail by then.
He was a BB horse.
Yes, he can only beat those he runs against. But it’s an important point for consideration that he beat a very weak field in a G2.
Eddie it seems like all of the preps this year (and most) are won by the pace—Forbidden Kingdom is a need-the-lead type—he sends! Juan Hernandez said he cannot be wrangled back—so he’s the type of horse that either wins or runs out, and I’m on the runs out bandwagon….two months out I’m liking Smile Happy and Morello.
Can’t argue with those two, but particularly SH.
Bill, Simplification and Epicenter are not half-brothers. Simplification comes from the family of Ashado.
Davids
Both colts were sired by Not This Time. Technically you’re right, to be half-brothers they would have to be “out” of the same dam, which they are not. However, from my view, having the same sire and same broodmare sire (Candy Ride) makes the two colts closely related.
Both colts should make the KD starting gate. As it stands now, I would give the edge to Simplification as the better of the two.
Tiz the Bomb salvages a rough day for Kenny McPeek despite being caught wide all the way around the track. I’m making a new rule for myself. Never bet a McPeek or Dale Romans first time starter or horse coming off the layoff. That being said, I still like Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll moving forward. Maybe they can both do like Tiz the Bomb and win their 2nd starts back. Maybe. The competition only gets tougher from now on.
All four three year old races today were IMPRESSIVE! Just saw Tiz the Bomb, he was so wide the whole way….Mandella’s colt is pretty good…..Fountain of Youth turned into a romp….and Morello—for my money his prep was f antastic, cuz it was a step forward, with another step to come, in timely fashion….LOVED the way his rider was sitting still—and he did his work—one more step forward!
Also I don’t care about Beyers at that deep surface! I thought 1:39 1/5 which was better than the Busher winner, and SHE looked good! I just loved the WAY he did it–
He got a big fat Beyer too — a 96.
I had a $100.00 win wager on Simplification, and he didn’t let me down. O’ Captain (My Captain) blew up my exotic wagers, but I still managed to make a little money on the day.
My Futures wagers on Simplification are looking better and better.
On Friday, March 4th, I bet $100.00 to win on him at 65-1.
Back in January, I bet $100.00 to win on him at 43-1 (Derby Futures Pool 2). In addition, I boxed Simplification with the entire field in my $2.00 exacta wagers, (in Pool 2).
Now that Simplification has earned 50 Derby points, will Antonio Sano point him to the Florida Derby, or rest him, and just train up to the KD?
I’d like to see him in the Florida Derby, just to see if he can turn the tables on White Abarrio.
It was good to hear the horses and jockeys that went down in FOY race are all ok.
One more thing about Simplification’s impressive win today, he stayed on his left lead, which may or may not be a concern going 10 furlongs.
Great job!
Thanks, TommyMc
Just out of curiosity, do you have any thoughts or opinions on why Simplification stays on his left lead? He did the same thing in the Holy Bull. I would think as the distance increases, this could have a tiring effect, especially going 10 furlongs.
I’d sure like to know if his trainer, Antonio Sano, is concerned about this issue.
How about a word for Simplification. He was awesome, even though I don’t think that he changed leads in the stretch. Can anyone confirm?
I was too busy watching the replay to see how the horses who went down came out of it. I’ll bet Steve is all over it.
He didnt
Hi Eddie – congrats on your KDFW bet on Simplification. He looked good mowing them all down in the stretch. Not changing leads has to be a concern as the distances only get longer and the competition gets better. My 2 KDFW Bets are Zandon and Commandperformance. Zandon is back on the work tab and should be ready to roll as one of the FAV in the Bluegrass. Commandperformance worked today and should fire a big confidence building MSW race on the TB Derby undercard next weekend. The Wood Memorial looks to come up very tough with Morello and MoDonegal targeting the race. I hope CP looks good in the MSW race next week and should be ready to fire , second off the layoff in the Wood. He will need at least 3rd because he only has 6 derby points now. Jack Christopher put up very big numbers and CP ran a solid second behind him in the Champagne. If he can duplicate that form, he could be a real threat in the Wood Memorial. I also bet Tiz The Bomb in KDFW2 and it was good to see him win on synthetic today and pick up Derby Points. I wonder if his connections will try the KY Derby if he gets the win in the 100 point Jeff Ruby Stakes where Tiz will be favored. Really liking Zandon who can rally off the pace. Forbidden Kingdom has serious speed and Epicenter and Classic Causeway will have to rate. The Derby IMO could be won by a mid pack horse like Zandon to pick up the pieces in what should be a hot derby pace.
Thanks, JoeP. I had the exacta but my major was WPS on In Due Time. Indeed, Simplification’s inability to change leads is a big concern. I don’t know much about how a horse is trained to change leads, but I’ve been told that it comes naturally to many young runners. If the same jockey was aboard in all of his races, I’d suggest a change. But Simplification had Castellano aboard in the Holy Bull and Jose Ortiz yesterday. I really like Zandon, but you may recall my concern about the string of 9f races. As for Commandperformance, I’m not as confident. Even if he wins the maiden race, how much do we learn from that? Then the Wood, which has been a treacherous road to the Derby. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you! After Saturday, all that’s left are the semifinals.
It’s a shame that Santa Anita had to run a 4 horse race as part of the late pick-4 on such a big day of racing.
I have to say that I was very impressed with Forbidden Kingdom. He ran fast all the way around the track. But, I don’t like any of the horses that finished behind him. No offense. Let’s see him stretch out to a mile and an eighth in The Santa Anita Derby. If that works out, it will be on to the mile and a quarter Derby where it looks like he’ll meet up with some other competitive speed.
Hey Steve I like Morello! LOVED his race—thought he got a LOT out of it—VERY deep and tiring surface, he was in hand and when it was GO TIME he said bye bye—1:39 1/5 but it was faster than the fillies and I thought the filly winner looked good, too—I’m bullish on Morello!
Reported that both of Bill Nott’s entries in FOY went down, High Oak and Galt.
Prayers for the jockeys, Joel Rosario and Robby Alverado and the horses.
It looks right now like everybody (horses and humans) is okay, but I think nobody will exhale until everyone gets the okay from MD or DVM.
Agree.
Robby retired it’s Junior Albarado.
I stand corrected. Thank you
Rosario a bit shaken up, but OK.
Alverado needed assistance walking off the track, has a sprained or badly bruised ankle.
Owner(s) of horses saying horses are OK.
So thankful!
David, Golden Code acquitted himself very well, I thought – he was very game to not give up third
Yes, Betsy. I felt Golden Code and Life is Great would perform better than most of the bettered favored colts. Worth having a try in the Wood Memorial.
‘beaten favored colts.’
I wonder if he will go to the Wood..I wouldn’t, but it’s Calumet and you never know with them…The horse who beat him in his debut, Bold Journey, finished next to last
Betsy, I think the memory of Bourbonic might answer that question. Ha ha Why not though, you have to be in it to win it.
How well I remember, David !
I assume we’ll hear from Todd in the next few days, so we’ll know for sure….Hey, he took a chance running today and got rewarded with a fine effort!
It’s very cool that he’s a NY-bred, as is his stablemate Best Idea…
Taiba wins debut for Bob B and Mr Zedan…..very impressive 1:09 4/5…..it’s looking like Bob will be leaving the sport for 90 days, and soon.
What I predicted months ago. His career is on hold!
Court ruling on March 21
My thoughts and prayers go out to the courageous Ukranian people who have remained resilient against the barbaric tactics of the Russian army. Hopefully, we’ll see a quick end to the bloodshed that is engulfing the whole country.
FIGHT ON UKRAINE!
If only a horse race could stop this awful situation! I’m with you, Bill.
I’ll second, third, and fourth that!
“We’re Not Gonna Take It!”
I agree 1,000%; I am having great difficulty concentrating on horses and the Derby trail with so much pain and suffering going on…I just want it to end as soon as possible. Derby prep races and racing in general just don’t seem very important right noe, but they are, of course, a sort of escape, for at least a few minutes. If I win today, all profits will be contributed to an appropriate charity: if I lose, then I will use other money to donate. It feels inadequate, but at least it is something…
Right on, Biggy!
biggy312, what a beautiful way to honor and help the people of the Ukraine.
I share your sentiments that most things do not seem important right now in light of the tragedy unfolding in the Ukraine.
The images and video coming out of the Ukraine are breaking my heart.
Markhamian will be my longshot paly in the FOY. There are others that I considered but the vote went to a colt that
is tougher and more versatile than most would realize.
He was attired with blinkers shadow Roll and front bandages for his first start. Why not run the colt and see what if any equipment is needed? In his 2nd start the shadow roll is dropped but his hind legs sport bandages to match those on his front. In his 3rd start the front bandages disappear but the hind leg bandages were retained.
This colt has never made a start without blinkers and bandages. Marcos Meneses has ridden him on all 3 occasions. Just
how good is this colt? What if the blinkers and bandage were removed and the services of a more accomplished rider is retained?
If he was sired by American Pharoah a son of Pioneerof The Nile instead of Social Inclusion who is likewise a son of POTN.
Would his ML be 20/1?
Despite his young age, Markamiam seems unphased by the shenanigans of his trainer and the less than competent handing of his rider. He just goes to the track and out runs the opposition. He is too young to be so professional. The big question has to be. Is he good enough to beat this field? I think he is fast enough to win. But does he possess the stamina to carry his speed against top level opposition. The pace will dictate whether he will be able to upset.
The fractions for the first 6F of the Holy Bull were – 23.93; 47.31; 1:12.01
The fractions for the first6F of the Pasco S were -22.22; 44.86; 1:09.67
Ok! The Tampa Bay surface was fast that day. Well, Markhamian recorded fractions of 22.04; 44.97;1:09.94 at GP before
he contested the Pasco.
If the fractions in the FOY are anything near those in the HB. Markhamian could emulate the effort of King Guillermo who won The Tampa Bay Derby @50/1 for Juan Carlos Avila.
Mehopes you’re right!
A few key scratches at Gulfstream today. Giant Game is out of the Fountain of Youth along with Mo Donegal. Diamond Wow out of the 13th. Royal Spirit out of the 7th. Girolamo’s Attack out of the 10th.
Something must have gone terribly wrong with the promising Prevalence in the 2021 renewal of the Pat Day Mile. The colt was done early and finished a fatigued looking 8th by 20 1/2L.
He reemerged 9 months later at the GP, the scene of his impressive debut win. He was made the 2nd wagering choice in a 7F Optional Claim. He bobbled at the start, bumped opponent and raced in 9th some 7L off an upfront pace that was fast i. e., 22.37; 45.03; 1:09.47.
To secure racing room, he had to be piloted 3 to 4 wide at the top of the lane. He closed willingly to finish 5th. Given the length of time between starts, his bobble and bump at the start and his lackluster effort on the back stretch. Finishing 5L in arrears at the line, is a lot better than it appears on paper.
The 4YO son of Medaglia D Oro is listed at a ML of 8/1 in an Optional Claim on Saturday. Should he leave the gates anywhere near his ML, I consider it manna from heaven.
Assuming all is well with Prevalence. He has to be one of the best bets on Saturday.
AGREE! His comeback race was lits better than looks on paper..
UPDATE! I bet Prevalence win/place, and when I saw him on the track I doubled my wager! Beautiful head on that horse, he looks like a stakes horse—perhaps even a Met Mile horse!
Good call, Coldfacts! I think he went off at 5-1.
Kudos! Very nice.
As a longshot hunter, the FOY is proving to be a challenge. There are just too many talented horses listed at ridiculously long MLs.
Markhamian – 20/1
This colt is a HD removed from being undefeated. He has been involved in 22, 44, 1:09 fractions in consecutive races in which he drew off to win handily. He has a DOB of May 29th. A colt as late as he is deemed to be, that is capable of recording such fractions has to be considered a serious racehorse. He is a longshot player’s dream. He has graded stakes speed. Despite his speed he is bred to route. It has been 7 weeks since his last start. A longshot player has a lot to speculate on. With 7 additional weeks of development. This colt should be stronger and could have improved a ton. He therefore could carry his speed the full distance of the FOY. A primary longshot play.
Howling Time -15/1
This colt was the 2nd choice in the wagering in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He led comfortably until challenged at which point, he stopped as if cut down by a sniper. The KJC has proven to be a very live and productive that has produced 3 next out graded stakes winner and a runner up. If there is no respect for this colt, there should be for the trend unfolding regarding entrants from the KJC. An obvious longshot play. He has the same paly book as Promises Fulfilled.
Dean Delivers- 15/1
This colt could be a router hiding in a sprinter’s profile. He is as tenacious as they come. He has never been worse than 2nd in 4 starts. He is another longshot player’s dream, with regards to a what if scenario. What if he can rate kindly and be produced late? The fight that this colt has shown makes him a live threat to latch on to one of the top dogs late and wear him down.
A P’s Secret
I will allow this longshot to beat me. I just do not feel him.
Giant Game- 15/1
He was my selection to win the BCJ. He finished a creditable 3rd. His poor HB performance is consistent with his trainer’s MO. He returned to the work tab recording sub minute times for 5F. This no different from prior to the HB. My trust in this colt has been shattered and he will have to beat. I will place a small token wager just in case he isn’t damaged goods.
Galt – 15/1
A none threating 4th in the HB. From every angle this colt shouldn’t emerge the winner. His draw, speed figures and the field assembled, suggest only a minor spot can be secured. He improved by 5L last out. Is he at the stage of rapid improvement? Another 5L improvement could see him closing off the pace to illuminate the board. He is a bill Mott charge. Country House finished a none threating 3rd in the 2019 AK Derby. His 2nd place finish in the KD earned him a promotion to first @65/1.
I will make my decision in due time.
Hey Facts
“I will make my decision In Due Time” Very clever.
It appears you’ve already made your decision.
You may regret passing on A.P.’s Secret, as a live longshot. I’m “feeling him” big time.
However, just to be clear, Simplification is my pick to win the FOY. I’ll key him in several exotic bets.
Good luck.
I just can’t toss out Howling Time, think he will sit a nice inside trip behind what looks like a lively pace—he has been working fast, I just think he has a shot in there!
Flying way under the radar is a 4th Kentucky Derby Points race tomorrow night under the lights at Turfway Park. I’m not 100% sure, but, I think that it’s only a 10-pointer. Kenny McPeek’s Tiz the Bomb is the 5-2 Morning Line Favorite in a full gate of 14 horses. I would expect Tiz the Bomb to be odds-on against that crew. Breaking from the #10 post, he should only need to stay in the clear to prevail against the big field. Alex Achard takes the mount.
Tiz the Bomb will be trying to rebound from a disappointing run in The Holy Bull. His skill on turf could play pretty well over the Turfway Tapeta track. If things go well for him tomorrow night, it could set him up for the 100-point Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes at Turfway in April. It’s strange to me that a Synthetic track race would be a 100-pointer. I better check on that.
Regarding the San Felipe it looks like Doppleganger is producing some fast works….his last four were since the San Vicente were 2/32 for 5 (2-7), 1/6 for 6 (2-12), 1/43 for 5 (2-19) and 1/9 for 6 (2-25).
FOY — My only KDFW bet, Simplification, is expected to be the post-time favorite. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Emmanuel gets the nod, based on the last futures pool and that he’s trained by Pletcher. Simplification is also the likely winner. Emmanuel might be an interesting bet if he were 6-1 or higher. But there are too many unknowns to bet him with confidence at much lower odds. The main unknown is, of course, how he’ll perform against stakes-quality runners.
After considerable analysis, I’ve ruled out two groups of runners:
*Those that haven’t raced further than 7 furlongs: Markhamian, Dean Delivers, High Oak, and O Captain
*Those that didn’t perform up to [my] expectations in their last race: Howling Time, High Oak (again), Giant Game, O Captain (again), and Galt
Turning to Rattle N Roll, it seems he’s the only McPeek Derby hopeful that hasn’t missed a beat in training. His Breeders Futurity race was brilliant. But what about that field? Classic Causeway has excelled, but not one other from the race has impressed. And as discussed by Steve, Gulfstream Park isn’t the best track for his running style. I’ll have to pass on RNR.
When will I reveal my FOY betting selection? IN DUE TIME!!!!!
IN DUE TIME is in a positive form cycle, and his Brisnet figures point to that. Not only have his speed figures improved with every race, but so have his late pace ratings. He has a fine trainer who isn’t a household name, an excellent under-the-radar jockey, a running style that’s advantageous at GP, and a pedigree to handle extra distance. He should go off at his 6-1 morning line if not higher. IN DUE TIME is my betting choice, win/place/show.
As a prediction of the finish, I’ll say In Due Time, Simplification, Rattle N Roll.
The combination of multiple speed horses + everyone knowing it’s a speed favoring track should equal a hot pace. Even so, I’d be surprised if RNR won. I personally don’t get the hype. He got a fast set up and came home kind of slow in his last, so not sure what I’m missing other than everyone projecting big leap off that, which is tough first out off a long layoff. I think you placing him 3rd is perfect.
I also like In Due Time and Simplification on paper, but something bothers me about both, call it gut.
I landed on Emmanuel by process of elimination, but I agree, he’ll probably go off as the 5/2 – 3/1 favorite and that doesn’t feel good. I will take a 4th look at the FOY today, maybe I see something new. Good luck Eddie.
Thanks, Lil. The toughest thing about these preps is that the ultimate goal is the Derby, not the preps. More than any horse in the field, simplification running poorly would be the biggest surprise. But IDT is a better value in my view.
In Due Time/Markhamian ex box!
That would be a stupendous payout!
“Those that didn’t perform up to [my] expectations”
What was your expectation for the last out MSW winner Galt? He finished behind the following:
White Abarrio – 3rd in Kentucky Jockey Club
Simplification – MMM winner
Mo Donegal – Remsen winner
Giant Game laid an egg. Hit It A Bomb was unable to make the transition to dirt.
A 4th place finish by Galt was excellent. Were you expecting a higher placement form such an unaccomplished entrant?
In The Gotham at Aqueduct, I’ll just go with Morello because of the good things that Steve Haskin wrote about him in The Knocking on the Door section of this week’s list. Maybe I’ll just “key” him on top of a trifecta and call it day.
Morello looks very tough. I’m leaning toward BOLD JOURNEY.
Good choice!
I don’t see/hear much chatter about Saturday’s San Felipe at Santa Anita. It looks like a 2 horse race to me, with the question being can Doppelganger catch the very speedy Forbidden Kingdom. He couldn’t in The San Vicente. But, that was at 7 furlongs and The San Felipe is contested at a mile and a sixteenth which could be testing the outer bounds of Forbidden Kingdom’s pedigree. Sired by American Pharoah, but, I see Five Star Day in that Dam-side pedigree which could be cause for concern. Also, does Forbidden Kingdom “bounce” off that 94 BSF that he ran earned in his San Vicente victory? I notice that trainer Richard Mandella put a 7-furlong workout into him since that last race. Speaking of workouts, Doppelganger appears to be training up a storm like most of the BB horses do coming into a big race. My only problem with Doppelganger is that while he looked awesome in his Maiden breaker at Los Alamitos, I remember that he also got a great set-up that day IMO. BB has a 2nd runner, Armagnac, that has already won at the distance. While I doubt that Armagnac can keep up with Forbidden Kingdom, how many times have we seen the higher-priced BB horse win a race? A: Many times over the years.
Speaking of Santa Anita, I hope their tracks dry out from today’s massive storm that caused the postponement of the Friday racing card.
3:30 in the afternoon, and it has not rained in Orange, CA, skies towards the San Gabriel’s look dark but we might just get out of this with no rain at all…
Off topic, but, what happened with Adare Manor? Wasn’t she supposed to run in Sunday’s Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita? I hope she is OK. I have high hopes for her no matter what happens with the trainer situation.
1st time through the FOY, 5-6 horses caught my eye
2nd time through the FOY, kept coming back to Emmanuel
3rd time through the FOY, there’s nothing that bothers me about Emmanuel. He’s the only horse I can say that about. And he looks like a sports car when he runs.
So I guess I’m going with Emmanuel, hoping to get 3-1.
I’m curious to see what wins — his impressive visuals vs his very slow Thoro-Graph numbers
Is it fair to say his TG numbers are slow because he hasn’t had to show us everything he’s got under the hood? That’s the thing for me, I feel like there’s a lot under there.
Do not let Thoro-Graph numbers be the hill you die on.
A lot of people like Mandella Sat, I like Doppleganger to win big! I like #1 Markhamion in the Fountain of Youth! 8-1 worth! Big inside move to the lead and bye bye! $20 horse! Santa Anita rolling down their dirt track and Friday will rain….Sat open it up for a fasr dirt track and mehopes the turf isn’t slippery it has been dry for a couple of months here….
Wow, 8-1 I thought, how about 20-1!
I didn’t want to land on a comebacking horse, but, after watching some replays today, Rattle N Roll looks pretty good to me. He might need a race, but, he’s 2 for 2 at a mile and a sixteenth and comes into the race with a couple of fast workouts over the Gulfstream track. I don’t know what to make of him “lathering up” during those workouts. I don’t know if it’s something that I should even worry about. His new Morning line odds are 8-1. Maybe those odds can hold up with so much attention on Emmanuel & Simplification. Those 2 horses look pretty good as well. The other horse that looks like a big beauty is Galt who Coldfacts mentioned this morning. Galt is marooned outside in the #12 post, but, he looks big and strong. He also looked like he was still figuring things out and should keep improving. I will choose one of those 4 horses on Saturday, liking R N R and Galt best moving forward beyond The Fountain of Youth. I was all set to include Howling Time, but, I don’t like the way he throws his head around. At least in the replay that I watched. Maybe I should find some more replays of him. Handicapping is a full-time job!
BTW, I’m not convinced that Emmanuel is a “need to lead” type horse. In his 1st race, he broke from the rail in a 10-horse field. Luis Saez hustled him out of the gate, not wanting to get trapped inside. In his 2nd race at Tampa against an over-matched field, he was just faster than his rivals and found himself on the lead. When they came to him at the top of the stretch he took off and put them away very easily. I think that he can get a nice stalking trip if Luis Saez chooses. I also think that either Emmanuel or Simplification will go off as the favorite. Especially, with a couple of the most popular jockeys at Gulfstream at the controls.
Emmanuel appears to be a nice colt. Being a Todd Pletcher pupil, I am unable to determine what is his true ability.
Verazzano was another talented More Than Ready colt trained by Todd Pletcher. In fact, he was viewed as a freak. Interestingly, after two spectacular wins to start his career at GP. He was never directed to either the FOY or FL Derby but rather the Tampa Bay Derby. He dominated the opponents at Tampa Bay. Bur when he met real opposition in the Wood he got home by 1/2L.
Emmanuel has been competing against stationary opponents. The mix of speed and closing power in the FOY field will require him to be very good to win. He must have an outstanding chance to win but has been protected and given easy spot so far.
In Due Time has caught my attention and he appear to be the total package. Too bad he isn’t a longshot
My only concern with him is that both his Thoro-Graph numbers were extremely slow. If I just saw his numbers and nothing else I would have thought he was a 20-1 shot. They contradict the mechanics he’s shown.
Hi TommyMC
I dug a little deeper regarding those lathering up comments on RNR’s workouts. It appears he lathers up quite frequently during workouts, so possibly these latest workouts are typical RNR works. Hopefully, Steve Hasken can provide clarification on RNR’s “lathering up” workouts, (prior to the running of the FOY).
RE: FOY
IMO, RNR’s latest works are cause for concern, (lathered up). It is not my place to question Kenny McPeek’s training regimen, or question if RNR is 100% fit to run in the FOY. However, I’m wondering if he’s ready to take on a pretty impressive FOY field.
That said, I’ll change my super P/W wager, I’ll key Simplification and Emmanuel on top, in the first 2 spots, with RNR, Markhamian, Howling Time, In Due Time, Dean Delivers and A.P.’s Secret underneath in the 3rd and 4th spots.
That is: 2,7/ 2,7/ 1,3,4,5,6,8/ 1,3,4,5,6,8. Cost: $60.00
I just might flip that and play: 1,3,4,5,6,8// 2,7// 1,3,4,5,6,8// 2,7 (same cost)
Safe trips to all.
Edit to above
I have Emmanuel in the wrong post position, he’s in P/P #8 (not #7). My super P/W ticket should read as follows.
2,8// 2,8// 1,3,4,5,6,7// 1,3,4,5,6,7.
and I’ll flip that over to read: 1,3,4,5,6,7// 2,8// 1,3,4,5,6,7// 2,8.
Biil,
I compile records that many consider meaningless. But sometimes I need to break a tie and I use meaningless information.
Curlin, Invasor and the brilliant Turf Miler Leroidesanimaux had no inbreeding in their first 5 generations, their dams were unraced and likewise had no inbreeding in their first generations. The great Secretariat had no inbreeding in their first 5 generations, and likewise his dam Something Royal. Was this significant to them being champions? I have absolutely no idea. But it’s unusual to see this pedigree profile associated with so many serious champions
In Due Time’s pedigree profile captured my attention. There is no inbreeding in his first 5 generations, his dam was unraced, and she likewise has no inbreeding in her first 5 generations. Of all the FOY entrants I have reviewed, In Due Time appears to be the most balanced and athletic. If not for the fact that his most impressive win was recorded with Lasix. I would conclude he is the entrant to beat. But he returns to the races without Lasix and he might not reproduce his last out effort ala Chasing Time.
Markhamian has no inbreeding in his first 5 generations, his dam was unraced, and likewise had no inbreeding in her first generation. He is an interesting entrant that has contested consecutive races involving fractions of 22, 44 & 1:09. In both races he pulled off to win handily. A May 29rth foal recording the aforementioned fraction means only one thing. That is exceptional ability.
Hey Facts
Thanks for the input on In Due Time. Steve mentioned “no in breeding in his first 5 generations (in Week 6 & 7), so it appears both of you like that angle. I like In Due Time for another reason, he was sired by Not This Time, who has no less than 5 of his colts on the Derby trail. Three are entered in the FOY, (Simplification, Howling Time and In Due Time). I’ll be using all 3 somewhere in my exotic wagers. In one of my Trifecta P/W wagers, I intend to key Simplification on top, with the other two NTT colts’, underneath in the 2nd and 3rd spots, (2/ 3,4/ 3/4).
Good luck with your bets in the FOY, it should be a great race.
BTW, those 5 NTT colts that are on the Derby trail are: Simplification, Epicenter, Chasing Time, In Due Time and Howling Time.
I am a sucker for talented progenies of unraced and very lightly mares. The undefeated Black Caviar (25 for 25) was produced from an unraced mare. The great Secretariat and Phar Lap were produced by mares that made 1 start.
I AM A LONGSHOT HUNTER BUT I HAVE TO RESPECT TALENT WHEN I IDENTIFY IT.
Hey Facts
My longshot pick in the FOY is A.P.’s Secret, at 20-1 on the M/L. He checks several boxes, (increasing Brisnet speed figures, top jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, 2 out of 3 wins on his home track and 2 out of last 3 works have been bullets.
Hopefully, he’ll go off in the 20-1 range, at post time, in which case I’ll place a $10.00 WPS wager on A.P.’s Secret.
BTW, his Equibase Speed Figure of 98, is right up there with Simplification, In Due Time, RNR and Emmanuel.
Good luck.
Steve, do you speak with Baffert? If so, I was wondering if you could find out the status of one of his horses – Essential Wager. He’s been on/off the vet’s list (off now, I think), he hasn’t been seen at all in the last month – I’ve tried everything, no one (not even DRF reporters, though I think they were holding off on asking BB about anything given what’s going on with him) knows.
Thanks!
He won the Palos Verdes….Bob usually does not work his horses after a race for around one month….
That “rule” does not apply to his Spring three year olds, who are under a different kind of deadline, but Essential Wager is an older horse.
Hi Matthew,
The thing is, he was specifically pointed to the San Carlos…..I have a friend who follows BB and knows his tendencies; she never mentioned what you did, but she does think it’s possible that EW is having a brief freshening since he’s been in training for awhile, and the biggest races are at least a couple of months away.
Thank you ! I feel better now!
Todd has a terrific barn, lots of money there….Chad too, he gets Europeans galore, ready made good stock…..Big Brad has a bunch of talent….but Bob’s barn, when you look at it is
chock full of stakes horses, or soon to be stakes horses, he sticks to his program, and churns out big race winners, unlike anybody else, percentage wise Bob is tops…..
Sure and several are cooked in process.
It is advisable that you reexamine the trainers’ stats for 2021.
Consider this, folks…after the race at TB Downs next week, there will be only one prep left before the Derby*. Crunch time is coming soon!
*not that you weren’t aware.:-)
That is, one last prep for each Derby hopeful.
Santa Anita has cancelled their entire Friday card due to a possible rainstorm. So, I quickly checked the forecast and see a 47% chance of rain on Friday. Mostly, in the morning. Maybe they are trying to preserve their track for the big Saturday card. But, being so overly cautious gives off the impression that they are walking on egg shells out there. Whatever. Hopefully, they can get their Saturday card off and running without any problems. Buying a Form in California is a risky bet in itself. You could spend all-day handicapping only to find that the races have been cancelled.
They moved it to Monday….Santa Anita has a horse shortage…..
This is the best. All I need for the Derby trail is Steve’s columns and the past performances. As much as I am partial to my racing here at Gulfstream Park, I’m a little disappointed in the quality of the preps so far. I think the perceived edge that california-based horses have in the derby does not look so prominent this year. The Rebel was awful in terms of quality and the San Felipe is just embarrassing.. I like the FOY field, even without Mo Donegal, but it doesn’t have the luster of the Risen Star. There just aren’t enough good horses to go around and they aren’t racing as much as they used to in the three year old preps. But you have to take what you can get. It’s still a lot of fun and you never know if there’s a potential superstar among the hopefuls.
Roberta, the weather looks perfect for the “Fountain of Youth Stakes” and not too humid. I’m hoping Bill Mott’s colt High Oak puts in a stylish performance, if not an actual win, and A.P.’s Secret is the other colt that intrigues me a little. Wait and see, hope you have a great day.
Thank you Davids. Both of the colts you mentioned have enormous potential. High Oak has been off for a half a year and I can’t imagine that he would be at his best today. Did you notice that AP’s Secret’s breeder is the same person as Simplification’s owner? I’ll be heading out to Gulfstream with a friend who has never in her life been to a racetrack. She loves horses though. The weather should be gorgeous.
Woo-hoo!
Hope you had a great day, Roberta. I was up at 4am to watch the full card. Wins by Felix, Coinage and Kathleen O. were thrills but the Fountain of Youth spill took all the fun away. Human and equine appear fine physically but mentally it takes a long time to fully recover.
On to the Tampa Bay Derby…
“The Rebel was awful in terms of quality”
There were 3 entrants in close proximity at the line. That considered a competitive race. The Risen Star had quality, but the winner’s rider glanced through his legs before gearing down him mount. It was a no contest.
We should desist from disparaging horses. Quality is subjective. I made some money on the winner of the Rebel. There was no quality lacking in his win. He was headed in the lane and found extra to regain the lead close home. Revisit his gallop out. It appears he could have gone another mile. That’s quality.
There is the belief that quality equates to speed. This is a false premise for quality. A perceived quality horse can be defeated by an opponent deemed to be lacking in quality. When the absence of quality defeats quality. The spin merchants get into motion with various excuses. Instead of giving credit to the victor the vanquished is subject of the post race analysis.
All KD winners are not the same. However, the records do not have a notation reflecting a KD winner as being of poor quality.
NB: If you owned a KD Prospect. How would you feel to know it is being viewed as lacking in quality?
Steve,
I find your disclosure below interesting
“Whatever you think of Baffert I’d like to see anybody take on the bullies.”
I would greatly appreciate you answering two questions:
(1) What should we think of Bob Baffert who racked up 5 mediation overages in 12 months and provide questionable excuses for same?
(2) Who are bullies referenced in your disclosure?
I had to revisit the definition of ‘Bully’ to be sure that Bob Baffert fit the discretion of one being bullied. I hardly believe Bob Baffert is being harmed or intimidate because he is vulnerable. A vulnerable individual doesn’t have a team of high-profile lawyers at his disposal. Or associate willing to underwrite the cost of taking cases to the Supreme Court. In no calculation can Bob Baffert be considered vulnerable.
Churchill Downs and KHRC are not bullies. Churchill Down’s two signature races on the calendar are the KY Oaks and KY. Horses from Mr. Baffert stable returned medication overages in both race in successive years. This is an unprecedented occurrence. No other trainer has same on their resume. Mr. Bob Baffert’s case is therefore special, warranting a penalty that matches the offence.
CD is at liberty to impose the penalty they deem necessary after reviewing the offences and the mitigating circumstance. A repeat offender is not expected to get slap on the Rist. CD has asserted that Bob offences have damaged their brand and the confidence of the betting public and race fans. With with such an assertion, it isn’t surprising that the penalty was severe. CD’s action cannot be vied as bulling. A decision to protect business interest is always prudent.
The KRC disqualified Medina Spirit for a medication being over the limit. The same commission disqualified Gamine the previous year for a similar offence. How can the action of the KHRC be viewed as bulling a vulnerable individual? The 90 days suspension and fine of $7,500 is well within the commission prevue. This likewise cannot be viewed as bulling venerable individual.
This is your bis your Blog. You are the sole Arbitrator of which posts are allowed. You are at liberty to delete any post and/or portions thereof as you determine fit. In deleting posts, you are in effect sanctioning posters for what you have asserted is either inappropriate, offensive or represents a violation of the participation protocol.
Should you be considered a bully for sanctioning some contributors? No! It’s your blog and we post at your pleasure.
I dont tell people what to think. The bully is Churchill Downs and that goes far beyond Baffert. Just look at the great tracks they have buried. If I delete your posts about Baffert it is because of your track record over the years. This is your final one. I dont delete any posts other than yours regurgitating the same anti-Baffert comments year after year. If anyone else has a problem with Baffert they are free to express it within limits I dont give my opinion of Baffert either way. This isnt the place for it
Spot on Steve. Churchill Downs could do so much more for the sport then they do. So could the jockey clubs. Are they ever going to get Pimlico out of limbo? How many years now has it been might be the last time they run the Preakness there? I don’t expect you to recall I am from Havre de Grace and still recall the article you did about that track.
Baffert is just trying to survive at this point in time. I do get some racing posts on my FB page and got one the other day about Baffert fighting to keep stall space. I wish this would get settled soon. Not doing the sport any good at all.
The bully on this block is you. Please go to Myspace.com or PEDANTIC.com is where you belong. To paraphrase Cromwell and Lord Amery ” You have written here to long for any good your doing. Depart I say and let us have done with you. In the name of God GO!”
Bravo Derek!
CF, u r here for all wrong reasons!
GULT:
MSW———-23.42; 49.57; 1:13.50; 1:38.60; 1:44.87 -Travelled between 4th & 5th before asserting to a 3L win.
Holy Bull——23.97; 47.31; 1:12.01; 1:36.45; 1:42.80 – Led this field. His margin of defeat reflects a 5L improvement.
The subject colt is an interesting entrant in the FOY. He improved about 5L between his MSW win and the Holy Bull. He will have to improve about another 5L to be in with a winning chance. Given the faster breezing times that are on record. He could very enter the FOY improved.
From a physical perspective, Glut is a very long colt with a head that the rest of his body needs to catch up to. His stride pattern is not ideal for the GP surface as it appears to be suited to turf. Given his length, if he had the stride extension of a dirt horse, I would be on him like white on rice given his 12/1 ML.
This colt doesn’t appear to be anywhere near full strength. He is so big, that will likely take time. He seemed to be fighting the surface in the stretch of the Holy Bull. A little more fluency in his stride, if that is possible. Will make him very competitive. He is unlikely to inherit the lead in the FOY and that might be to his benefit.
Is it worth taking a shot with this colt in spite of its negatives? Absolutely! He is trained by the fearless Bill Mott.
Galt is definitely an interesting entrant in The FOY. Bill Mott happens to be one of my favorite trainers. It’s not like him to throw a horse to the wolves unless he believes that the horse can compete. The bad news is that he suffers the same horrible post position as the now scratched Mo Donegal. And what the heck was he doing on the lead in The Holy Bull? Maybe Junior Alvarado felt he had to get him out of there from his rail draw. The good news is that he’s had a couple of solid maintenance works since The Holy Bull and he picks up one of the very best jockeys. I look for him to take back on Saturday and make a huge late run. I think that last race has him ready to run a big one. Maybe that #12 post can make him the “lucky #13. He did outwork stablemate High Oak on Feb 21st. There seems to be plenty of speed signed up for the race. Some contenders are coming off layoffs like High Oak. Some good looking horses are trying a Stakes for the first time. Lots of ways to go in this race. Why not take a price?
I believe he was writing about Gult and Glut. I can’t find either one in Equibase, past or present.
Well, whoever he is, Coldfacts makes him sound pretty good.
I saw $400k horse + massive improvement last out which I love. But the jockey jumping to the other Mott horse + the post position tipped me to the negative side.
Steve, thanks again for sending your weekly informative, entertaining, missal as we try to negotiate the last two months of the Derby Trail. Instead of worrying about the Baffert colts anymore I’m taking Judy Garland’s advice to “Get Happy” and “Get ready for the judgment day” on the first Saturday in May. Shout hallelujah, there’s a host of preps to enjoy over the weekend.
There’s enough gloom and misery in the world right now that I intend to just escape into the world of horse racing over the weekend – starting Friday. There will be a few ‘rainbows and lollipops’ if High Oak or A.P.’s Secret roll to victory in the “Fountain of Youth”; Golden Code or Life is Great run away with the “Gotham”; Forbidden Kingdom steals the “San Felipe”; or Erase does just that to the field in the “John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. Mind you, there is an absolute feast of racing besides the 3 year old colts trials and tribulations. So, get happy!!
In all seriousness though, it’s best to just let it all happen, the Baffert saga, and, by the end of April, we’ll all have a clearer idea on who is in, and who is out, of the Kentucky Derby. In the mean time, best of luck with it Steve in trying to project a future field that may, or may not, exist.
Roberta, are you attending the Fountain of Youth Stakes? Wish I could be there.
Shout hallelujah!
I was always of the opinion the popular song ‘Hallelujah’ was for religious folks. That was until I listened carefully to some of the lyrics.
You saw her bathing on the roof. He beauty in the moonlight over drew you
She tied you to her kitchen chair, she stole you thorn and cut your hair and from you lips she drew the ‘Hallelujah’
All I ever learned from love is how to shoot someone who out drew you.
It’s not something you will hear at nights It’s not someone who has seen the light
It a cold and it’s broken ‘Hallelujah’
With poetry, songs the words mean different things to different people. “Fire and Rain,” is another well known song that is literally quite different than what most people believe the song is about.
Davids, Leonard Cohen’s original version, as recorded on his album Various Positions, contains several biblical references, most notably evoking the stories of Samson and Delilah from the Book of Judges (“she cut your hair”) as well as King David and Bathsheba (“you saw her bathing on the roof, her beauty and the moonlight overthrew you”).
There are over three hundred different versions of the song and dozens of singers have recorded covers and many have changed out some of the lyrics.
That is the beauty of Cohen’s lyrics (poetry), it has lent itself to be “melancholic, fragile, uplifting [or] joyous” depending on the performer and their interpretation of the lyrics.
As you pointed out “Fire and Rain” is another song with lyrics that are often interpreted different from James Taylor’s intent.
Johnny Cash’s cover of the 9 Inch Nails song “Hurt” is another example of how the singer’s interpretation of the lyrics gives a totally different meaning. I personally think that Johnny Cash’s interpretation of “Hurt” was brilliant and one of if not the best recording he did in his career.
OK here’s my Johnny Cash story…..I was working the Oregon State Fair, in Salem, 16 hour shift with an hour lunch, and I wanted to see if I could check out Johnny Cash, having caught Ray Charles the night before (he was terrific)….so I’m walking between bleachers, it’s night time, and there is no sound, which concerned me—and when I saw the stage it was just Johnny, in all black…on a stool with his guitar, just beginning “I Walk the Line”…you could hear a pin drop…this old guy said “he sounds just like me”….and I knew I was seeing greatness.
Matthew, when was this, in the 1970s? The first ‘great’ performance for me was seeing Bob Dylon live as a teenager. He opened with “Mr. Tambourine Man” the fans erupted and he followed with another great song until the 7th encore…we were so overwhelmed with awe that we bought tickets for another concert, two days later. He was just as good and the fans just went wild again, they didn’t want him to leave the stage.
Davids, have you ever listened to Dylan’s album “Nashville Skyline”? There is a duet with Johnny Cash singing “Girl from the North Country. Johnny also sang a duet with Dylan of the same song on his TV show.
They had several collaborations that you can still find on you tube (Ring of Fire, One Too Many Mornings and Big River).
My favorite is “Girl from the North Country” on the album.
“Nashville Skyline” was one of the first albums I bought when I was a teenager (and I still have it). “Lay Lady Lay” is on that same album.
When I was in high school, we studied Dylan’s song lyrics and wrote our individual interpretations of his lyrics (poetry).
My favorite all time Dylan song is “I Shall Be Released”. It was sung by Dylan and others (too numerous to list) at the “Last Waltz” concert with “The Band”.
Another song that Dylan wrote was for the Civil War Movie Gods and Generals | Bob Dylan “‘Cross The Green Mountain”. It brings me to tears every time I watch the music video.
A lot people do not care for Dylan’s voice I think the person who wrote this said it best: His voice is as unique as his lyrics are. Bob Dylan isn’t a good singer. He’s a great singer.
Anither
Sadly we are losing so many of the great singers and songwriters from the late 50’s, 60’s and 70’s and early 80’s.
Singers like Cash and Dylan did not need all the acoustics and bells and whistles that most singers use today and I dare say too that cannot write the lyrics that Bob Dylan, Kris Kristofferson, Willie Nelson and others from that era could.
Most Dylan songs I prefer his version of but there are two songs that Nina Simone has recorded that I prefer. One is actually, “I Shall be Released” and the other is “Tom Thumb Blues.”
Matthew W, Johnny Cash was know for his sense of humor as was June Carter Cash. I never had the opportunity to see him live, but I have seen videos of his performances (usually with June) and they were really good.
On a personal level, I was not a fan of JC when I was young and really did not come to appreciate his talent until many years later, especially his last recordings.
My dad was a fan of Johnny Cash and always watched his TV show.
Lynda, when it comes to singers who often improve on the original in their interpretation Nina Simone has few peers. If you haven’t heard Nina Simone’s version of Judy Collins’ “My Father,” you’re in for a treat.
Davids, I followed your suggestion and listened to Nina Simone’s version of “My Father”.
I am going to try and find another recording of the song. The one I listened too had orchestration that drowned out hre voice for most of the song.
Lynda, don’t buy the Album “Baltimore” which “My Father” is on unless you also want to hear Simone sing the pop song “Rich Girl.” She recorded the whole album in one hour – she didn’t like any of the songs apart from “My Father.”
Unhappy relationship with Creed Taylor’s production choice for “Baltimore” – Simone actually questioning Taylor on “What is this corny stuff? Nonetheless, “My Father” is worth buying the album if you can’t get a copy by some other means.
Hi Davids. You are so right about the escape from the troubles of the world that horse racing provides. I’m most definitely going to be at the FOY. I think it will be a nice day on Saturday but with strong winds from the east. The wind will cut across the track, where the straightaways are north/south, so I don’t think it will affect the races. Can’t wait!
Good for you, and the best of luck even if you’re not having a bet. Looks like a fantastic card, the synthetic track gives Gulfstream a new dimension and possibly the chance to really ‘grow’ a superior turf track.
Brisnet figures for Saturday’s winners: Secret Oath 97, Call Me Jamal 93, Curly Tail 92, Un Ojo 92
For future reference: Every first-place Derby finisher since 1994 (except Mine That Bird) has earned a Brisnet figure of at least 97 in the final prep.
How much did the promoted Country House secure for his 3rd in the AK Derby?
Great comments, by Wayne Lukas, admonishing the owners to interview and talk turkey about what you expect, in a trainer! He’s telling owners to tow the line! These days there might be 200 owners! Of one horse…..
Imagine that, over 200 opinions on where next to run a horse. Lol.
It’s like the comment sections of another horse racing site.
It’s a jungle over there. Not for the thin skinned.
Ha ha
Finally…..a Forbidden Kingdom sighting!
Mandella never pushes, unlike some.
Hi Steve:
I read your post last night, but haven’t had a chance to post until now. (I just read through all the comments and hugely enjoyed them.) My perspective is that it’s the time in the Road to the Derby season where all the cards are being laid on the table, which is what you did with your top 20 picks. With three (or is it four?) prep races this weekend, I expect a huge shuffling of the deck come Saturday. I think the horses that land on top are likely to be the contenders on May 7, and I’d lay odds that at least 3 or 4 are in your top 5.
Thanks for another intriguing column!
Actually, if Baffert wins the San Felipe and the Gotham it will make things even more confusing. You can have as many as 4 Baffert horses ranked or none. I have no idea what to do with his horses.
If anyone can figure it out, it will be you. (The DRF has simply eliminated horses trained by Baffert from its Top 20 list.)
In my enthusiast opinion, Messier is the only one who stands out at this point. I loved Newgrange in his first two starts this year, but then he inexplicably ran a bad race in a weak Rebel.
My rule of thumb would be…Rank them when they’re eligible and are deserving. 😉
Steve,
Iam surprised at your comment below
“I learned very little from the Rebel.”
The Rebel revealed that New Grange is not as good as previously assessed and that working 58+ doesn’t guarantee a victory.
On a more serious note. We learnt that Un Ojo is a very talented colt. You made no mention of his pedigree. The sires of his 1st three dams would be the envy of most breeders. Certainly, A P Indy, Seeking The Gold and Spend A Buck as 3 dam sires would be an excellent source of stamina. It appears Un Ojo has stamina to spare. An A P In mare produced a KD winner and runner up i.e., Super Saver and Bluegrass Cat.
You might have missed the gallop out. Un Ojo and Barber Road galloped out way ahead of all others. Although Barber Rod was finishing best of all, he never got by Un Ojo in the gallop out.
Of the 11 starters in the Rebel. Eight had made a previous start at OK Park with most making multiple. Un Ojo was one of the 3 that was making its first start at OK Park. The remaining 2 finished 9th & 11th.
The Rebel confirmed that Un Ojo has the determination to win the KD. He closed relentlessly to secure 2nd in the Withers on the demanding and tiring surface at Aqueduct. Under severe whipping he responded to retake the led close home to secure his first graded stakes win over 3 of his closest opponents with multiple start at the venue.
The Laoban sired Keepmeinmind finished 6th in the 2021 Rebel. He never won a 3YO KD prep but went on to finish a creditable 7th in the KD. Un Ojo at this point is way ahead of Keepmeimmind.
How much space do you think I have. There is next week
Sorry Steve I have to say it. He thinks this is all his space.
Agreed!
I always regret when I respond to him
I do not agree with your statement about Un Ojo being “way ahead of Keepmeinmind” by Rebel date. Keepmeinmind was actually way ahead of Un Ojo when starting in the Rebel with a G2 win (Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes), a 2nd in the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and a 3rd in the G1 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Keempmeinmind was third choice of the public in the Rebel (vs. 75 to 1 for Un Ojo there).
Un Ojo as a gelding has ample opportunities to get ahead of his brother specially if he does better than third placings in the Preakness, Ohio Derby, Jim Dandy and Travers… but he might no enjoy another dream trip as the one he had in the Rebel.
On top of the great grandam sires you mentioned Un Ojo’s third dam is the brilliant Antespend a millionaire three-time G1 victress.
Nice colt the New Yorker but I share the perception that the Rebel won’t amount to be a critical race toward the Derby…
Let me put into context what I meant by Un Ojo being ahead of Keepmeinmind at this point.
Keepmeinmind 2YO
Keeneland Breeder Futurity (2nd)- 4 points
Breder Cup Juvenile – (3rd) 4 points
Kentucky Jockey Club – (1st ) 10 points
Un Ojo 2YO
Jean Lafitte Stakes – All Weather (Black type) 4th – not a points race
NY Stallion Series (Black Type) 2nd – not a points race
Keepmeimmind 3YO (Pre KD)
Rebel Stakes – 6th – 0 points
Bluegrass – 5th – 0 points
Un Ojo 3YO (Pre KD)
Withers (2nd) 4 points
Rebel – (1st) 50 points
As 2YOs Un Ojo doesn’t compare to Keepmeinmind.
As a 3YO Keemeinmind failed to hit the board in two KD preps which included his 6th place finish in the Rebel. There was also interruption in his training due to severe weather conditions that inhibited training on the track OK Park, where he was being prepared for the Rebel. Keepmeinmind didn’t secure any points in either the Rebel or Bluegrass. He was not competitive in either race. His total of 18 points secured as a 2YO meant he was questionable to make the KD cut. But lilely!
As a 3YO, Un Ojo finish 2nd and 1st in his two KD pres. He has amassed 54 point and has secured a spot in KD. At this point, Keepmeinmind was not assured of a spot in the KD and had not added to his points tally. It is likely Un Ojo will make another start before the KD and has an opportunity to add to his points tally. He has to have decent chance to either win or make the top 3 in the AK Derby
The above is the basis on which I have concluded that at this point Un Ojo is way ahead of Keepmeinmimd. You are at liberty to disagree, and I am obliged to respect your disagreement. That’s how the process works.
I am not declaring at this point that Un Ojo is my main KD horse. I am merely highlighting some positives that Steve might have ignored.
CF, are u for real?
I’ll give Coldfacts his due, he makes a compelling case for One Eye, which did seem to rebreak inside the 1/8 pole….
Just seemed the Risen Star was a (much) better field than the Rebel, but Un Ojo does possess stamina!……
Risen Star…Rebel. Major leagues…AA ball.
No, whoever believes that Barber Road didn’t pass Un Ojo in the gallop out needs to visit an optometrist. Not that I find ‘gallop outs’ of great importance really.
Strangely, rain has entered the forecast for Santa Anita on Friday & Saturday. Potentially ruining the new cross country Turf Pick-5 and the cross country Dirt pick-5. Sadly, Santa Anita doesn’t have a Tapeta track to fall back on. Selfishly, maybe that’s a good thing. Oddly, I haven’t seen any hype or promotion of these bets. Curiously, I’d like to know the race lineups for these wagers. Lately, we all know that with even the slightest bit of moisture Santa Anita takes the races off the turf.
Dec 26th turf cancelation at Santa Anita they had 4 3/4 orchestra of rain that week….
Inches
I didn’t mean any offense. Besides, it’s only Wednesday, still plenty of time for the forecasters to be wrong. IMO, the weatherman has a lower batting average than George Brett’s .390 in 1980.
80% Friday 20% Saturday man they have had day after day this Winter of great weather, they NEED a good Saturday they have not been able to fill dirt races and it is hurting their bottom line.
Weather forecasters hit below the Mendoza line.
It turns out that those 2 cross-country pick-5 wagers are both $1 minimum bets. A negative in my opinion. The Dirt pick-5 looks like the easier of the two wagers with a couple of possible “singles” at Santa Anita IMO. That Dirt pick-5 also includes The San Felipe and The Fountain of Youth. The final leg is The Big Cap where I think Express Train has a great chance despite his 0 for 3 record at a mile and a quarter. There are also reports that Express Train’s Sire, Union Rags, has never sired a winner at 1 1/4 miles. I don’t know if that’s true or not. But, Express Train has won 2 in a row and seems to be the big man on campus among the older horses at The Great Race Place(and didn’t Union Rags win the mile and a half Belmont?). Maybe Matthew will share some of his insight on that race.
I am biased, Express Train is one of my favorite horses of my lifetime, as for Sat I think Express is looking tough to beat. ..his weight has dropped considerably but he’s doing better than ever….Express Train “lumbers” along, straight and strong! No great shakes, I just love the guy…
Thanks.
In Due Time, A.P.’s Secret, and Emmanuel seem to be very talented colts. But, even with the scratch of morning line favorite Mo Donegal, the Grade II Fountain of Youth is a tough spot to make your Stakes debut against seasoned Stakes performers.
If Mo Donegal really has a temperature, it could be troublesome. As Steve Haskin has written many times over the years, even the smallest bump along The Road to The Kentucky Derby can be a problem. But, as Mr. Haskin points out below, let’s see if he shows up in Tampa next Saturday. I have seen some reports that Mo Donegal will go directly to The Wood Memorial. On the other hand, Todd Pletcher doesn’t seem too upset about the news. Maybe he really is ditching the notoriously bad #12 post at a mile and a sixteenth at Gulfstream on the dirt.
Yes, a tough ask for A.P.’s Secret but you may as well get the answer ‘red hot.’ The other colt that intrigues me in the Fountain of Youth is High Oak, who was impressive last year. Bill Mott must be reasonably confident that High Oak is ready to deliver. Should this be the case it’ll be ‘afscheid’ to the rest of them. Good luck.
Smile Happy –
It is being asserted that the subject colt was not in receipt of the best handing in the Risen Star and that was responsible for his defeat. He finished ahead of all but one. Would he have been able to defeat Epicenter if his handing was prefect?
The post-race comments regarding Epicenter’s win were a as follows -Glided away and geared down. It appears Epicenter was not for catching. Why was Smile happy beaten? Let examine the cold facts:
The 6F & 8F splits in the Risen Star were faster than any recorded in Smile Happy’s previous starts. The 8F split in particular, was 1 second faster. This equates to 5L. It therefore means that Smile Happy would be further off the pace if he were not under strong urging. Asking him for a full effort that early would have compromise him in the last furlong
The final issue that caused his defeat was the 12.45 split for the final furlong. This was achieved with the winner gearing down. Epicenter could have easily completed the final furlong faster. Smile Happy is accustomed to running by opponents who are fully extended with nothing left to repel him. Epicenter was full of run and was not slowing down until his rider decided he has done enough.
The Risen Star was the fastest race ever contest by Smile happy. He proved he is venerable to a high cruiser that can accelerate and sustain its gallop through the lane. A longtime ago I asserted that Smile Happy would be venerable to this very kind of opponent.
His ride is absolutely not to be blame for his defeat. He was always going to be 2nd best on the day.
If Smile Happy does make it into The Derby and Corey Lanerie is still riding the Colt, I’m looking forward to seeing if Lanerie tries one of his favored ground saving/rail skimming rides as the possible favorite on May 7th in America’s most famous race. If the tactic succeeds, he’ll be hailed like Calvin Borel. But, if he runs into traffic and has to hit the brakes, he could be ridiculed as Churchill’s Bill Buckner. Let’s see if Epicenter gets the same favorable pace scenario that he enjoyed in The Risen Star. There are some other legitimate speedsters on The Derby Trail this year. White Abarrio, Simplification, Classic Causeway, and maybe Emmanuel to name a few.
My brother talked me into betting against Easy Goer in the ’89 Derby for that very reason, his preps had all been perfect trips—and I had $156 to wager on the Derby, singling Sunday Silence first…Easy Goer second and three horses for third, hitting a $56 trifecta that paid $102 for a buck—I agree with you some horses get great trips, I look for a horse that gets in and didn’t have an easy road, and is due for a good trip!
$52
I was a big fan of Sunday Silence. Easy Goer caught him in The Belmont, but, Chris McCarron rode Sunday Silence perfectly to take The Breeders Cup Classic.
The internal fractions of the Risen Star didn’t inhibit any other entrant, with some amount of class from engage Epicenter on the lead. Let’s compare the internal fractions of the Lecomte & Risen Star:
Lecomte —- 23.40; 47.01; 1:12.16; 1:37.71
Risen Star— 23.79; 47.97; 1:12.25; 1:36.58
In the Lecomte, Epicenter secured the lead heading into the first turn. But he was never more than 1 to 2 lengths ahead of the competition. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to conclude he was being kept in close range. In the stretch he was just 1/2 ahead of Pappacap up yo the line, before being passed late by Call Me Midnight.
The internal fractions in the RS were much slower than those recorded in the Lecomte, with the exception of the 8F split. Again, Epicenter was no more than 1 to 2 lengths ahead for 6F. How can opponents being so close to a lead and the leader is deemed to have enjoyed a favorable pace set up?
What made the difference in the Risen Star was the 4th quarter of 24.33. Epicenter recorded 25.55 for the 4th quarter of the Lecomte. He was 1 second faster in the RS. His 4th quarter split seemed to have crippled his opponents. The split contributed to the mile being completed in 1:36.58. None of the entrants making the board had ever been exposed toa 1:36+ mile. This nullified their closing speed as they had too much ground to cover against an opponent galloping along on a loose rein.
The race was blown open in the 4th quarter. From then on all were running for the minor shares. There was no favorable set up. Careful analysis would indicate that Epicenter return to the Risen Star from the Lecomte an improved colt. He entered the lane on a loose rein whilst his opponents were all out. His rider didn’t ‘tighten his rein until close home and when he glanced back at the competition, he immediately loosened them.
Epicenter displayed he was a cut above the competition on the day. He might very well be a cut above in general.
I believe Epicenter had a few more starts under him. I know you have no concept of what a prep race is. If Epicenter is the only speed in the Derby he will be No. 1 and likely will win.
Hi, Steve. Fantastic analysis once again. And we get a 25% bonus on contenders! I’ll be spending much of the next couple of days studying each of the 20 with your commentaries as a guide. Just thought I’d mention the Lanerie ride, though. I figured Lanerie had a lot of horse under him and was hoping to step on the accelerator only when he needed to. If SH was as good as most everyone expected, he would blow by the horses in front of him. As it was, around the 3/8th pole, he didn’t seem to have any room to make his move. That was the problem as I saw it. When Lanerie found room, SH exploded…just not enough. Maybe it was the 2 weeks between workouts, maybe the layoff. Instead of a 12 1/5 final eighth, I’m sure rider and connections expected something more like 11 4/5.
Regarding the San Felipe: Can you recall a more uninspiring field?
I recall reading that Brad Cox wanted to give Zozos one chance to get into the Derby gate. Do you have a scoop on where the chance might be? Your column was greatly anticipated and worth the wait.
Actually, the San Felipe looks to be a fascinating race to me. I’m keenly interested to see if Richard Mandella can stretch Forbidden Kingdom a little bit further, and then a little bit further. He did so quite well with a filly that seemed an out and out sprinter.
Well, I meant uninspiring as a Derby prep. As a betting race, it has potential.
It would be fun if Mandella’s colt was triumphal, again.
Thanks. When a horse has only two peps at 3 I want to see him his race. SH has never been that back n never waited that long to run. He wasnt going to win anyway with Epicenter controlling the pace and flying home. No one was beating him. The San Felipe doesnt thrill me either. Forbidden Kingdom can win this but I dont see him as a 10f horse. If Baffert wins thats another good horse I have to leave off. And what if he wins the Gotham? Do they all go on along with Messier?
It’s looking like this Derby will set new records for most starters with just two preps at 3 and for lowest average number of starts for all runners. Handicapping the Derby was tough enough 20 years ago. Now it’s a cr@p shoot.
Now that Pletcher officially scratched Mo Donegal out of the FOY, I’ll include Markhamian, underneath, in my superfecta wager. As it stands now, I’ll key Simplification and RNR on top in the first 2 spots, with Markhamian, Howling Time, In Due Time, Dean Delivers, A. P.’s Secret and Emmanuel in the 3rd and 4th spots That is: 2,6/ 2,6/ 1,3,4,5,7,8/ 1,3,4,5,7,8.
The two longshots that intrigue the most are Howling Time and A.P.’s Secret. Obviously, Dale Romans didn’t have Holwing Time ready to fire in the KYJC, where he finished a disappointing 5th. He certainly didn’t replicate his impressive performance in the Street Sense. Romans gave him a three-month rest, and has since been working lights out, firing 3 bullets in his last 3. All three works were recorded at GP.
Those three works are as follows: 2-26, 5F, 58 2/5, 1/41. 2-19, 4F, 46 3/5, 1/103. 2-5, 5F, 59 flat, 1/24. Howling Time offers excellent value at 15-1.
With respect to A.P.’s Secret, he wired the field in a one-mile, 75K AOC to finish in 1:35 2/5, which was only 2/5 of a second slower than Simplification’s time in the MMM Stakes, (1:35 flat). Two of his last 3 works have been bullets (5F, 58 2/5, 1/10 on 2-20, and 5F, in 58 3/5, 1/14, on 2-14). A.P.’s Secret offers excellent value at 20-1.
I’ll play two Trifecta P/W wagers, which are as follows:
I’ll key Simplification on top, with the other two Not This Time colts, (Howling Time & In Due Time) underneath in the 2nd and 3rd spots. That is: 2/ 3,4/ 3,4.
My other Trifecta P/W wager will be as follows: Key Simplification on top, with Howling Time and A.P.’s Secret in the 2nd and 3rd spots. That is: 2/ 3,7/ 3,7.
Safe trips to all.
Bill,
Are you of the opinion that Simplification has soundness issues? He finished the HB on the wrong lead which allowed Mo Donegal to close rapidly on him whilst he was tiring badly. During his gallop out after his impressive win in the MMM he jumped back to his left lead.
I also took note of his stride patten in the closing stages of the MMM. There was not a lot of extension. The distance of the FOY might just be outside his scope. He could be found wanting late in the last half. Obviously, it could be my usual nonsense.
I consider Rattle and Roll a bet against. Why? The #1 & #2 ranked colt went down in defeat in the Risen Star. By extension the # 3 ranked colt should follow suit.
In all seriousness The Breeders Futurity was a 2-horse race. Apart from Classic Causeway. None of the other entrants in the Futurity have figured in any race of significance. Classic Causeway defeated a field in the Sam Davis that doesn’t appear to be as competitive as the one R&R will face in the FOY.
In 2019 the Ken Mc Peek trained Signal Man was ranked at #3 below Game Winner and Improbable. He entered the FOY for his 3YO debut with better credentials than R&R. He finished 2nd to Knick’s Go in the Breeder Futurity, 3rd to Game Winner and Kincks Go in the BCJ and then won the Kentucky Jockey Club. He could only managed 7th.
As usual R&R might just be better than I have assessed. But I of the opinion that his resume neither supports his #3 ranking nor his hype.
Mark
Regarding Simplification’s soundness, I don’t believe Antonio Sano would run him in the FOY if he didn’t think he was in top shape. His last two works appear to show good form, one of which was a bullet 5F in 58 3/5, 1/42 on 2-19, followed by any easy breeze, going 5F in 1:02 3/5, on 2-26. I’m sure you’re aware that he missed the break in the Holy Bull, and to close from far back to gain 2nd. From my perspective, Simplification’s running style is that of a “front runner”, as he showed in his maiden win, and the MMM Stakes. His front running style compares very closely with his half-brother, Epicenter, (both by NTT) and share the same broodmare sire, Candy Ride. Sano made a rider switch, going with Jose Ortiz, one of the best riders out there. I believe Jose will make sure Simplification is on the right lead, coming home.
That said, I’m convinced that the FOY will be Simplification’s coming out party, and then he’ll move on to the Florida Derby.
In addition, I believe Rattle N Roll will give Simplification all he can handle and should be right there in the final stages to make it real close.
BTW, would you care to share your top pick in the FOY?
Good luck if you bet the race, Mark.
Mo Donegal scratched out of FOY with a “high temperature”….
Outside Post Virus?
Being they said high temp lets see if he runs next week at Tampa
LOL. Good one!
I’m real surprised at the ML for Rattle n Roll especially for how professional he was at Keeneland racing on the rail and using his talent to be in the perfect position to pounce on the far turn. And the turn of foot! Smile Happy’s ride took me back in time thinking about how good Union Rags was and him getting such a terrible ride in the Derby by Leparoux. Thanks, Steve, great as always! Looking forward to seeing Emmanuel run.
He never gets any respect in the morning line, here and in the Future Wager. Its like the Breeders Futy never happened
Natural High…
I may just be getting old but thus far this year I get the feeling that the prep races run have been subject to some kind of subtle design or plastic influence toward a greater state of parity. Like the slower times posted and the non-appearance of those two or three horses that are allowed to express themselves so dominant over other colts, that I now feel all that real magic is missing.
I’m not ignoring those colts that appear on top now… It’s just that the ones there at this point don’t inspire me and give me chills like those dominant in the past. After all… for me that’s always been the real attraction to the game. That rare beast that can transport me to an emotional state of awe and resonate something within and beyond myself of supernatural strength and courage.
In the Rebel Stakes last weekend there were four colts that carried more weight by design than the other seven in the race… including the 1-2-3 finishers. How do we make our judgements and find the distinctions in our reality when the rules of the game once loved are traded for bankers lamps and ledgers. The new world where we’re headed will have no natural hero’s to transport us to awe. Those who write the hero’s of the future will draw colored pictures in comic books… Those of lesser instinct have taken over.
That is quite an articulate post. As sad as your words are, when you use “awe” twice and “chills,” I cant remember feeling them for quite a while, maybe during the short reign of Arrogate. To me when I start feeling chills and awe it means the horse that gave them to me is soon going to be retired. Racing has changed and if I want those feelings of the past I have to go back there…in my memory.
Derby preps are not exclusively for the dominance of the talent in the upper echelon. In fact, those in upper echelon do not contest all KD Preps. This allows lesser talents to secure purses and points.
I find it interesting that each year there are complaints about there being no wow moment and/or KD Prospect taht has separated itself from the pack. Each year bring a different crop with different talent levels. Our burden is to recognize and note the difference, but none the less appreciate what is on display.
The record books have never indicated that any KD winner was from a modest crop. Neither is purse for the KD adjusted because there wasn’t an outstanding member of the crop. The owners of every KD winner see it as the winner of the greatest dirt race for 3YOs in the world.
early voting top 6
Hi Steve, I am surprised to not see Early Voting I’m the rankings.
He was earlier, but Chad said he wanted to go Wood and then Preakness. I didnt keep him on because that would be 8 weeks before he ran. He could be overruled by the owner but after the dust has cleared I will check back with Chad to see if that is still his plan.
Thank you very much Steve. It’s such a pleasure to read these weekly rankings (and comments). I kept checking this site multiple times throughout the last 24 hours hoping to see the new rankings. Definitely worth the wait. Thanks again and take care Mr. Haskin.
Thank you very much, Kevin. It was late this week because I had to wait for the FOY and San Felipe entries Monday night.
I love how you showcased one of my all time favorite horses in discussing the lineage of #4. Cryptoclearance was one of my first horse crushes! Thanks, Steve, for showing clearly what great stuff Epicenter is made from. Love those Candy Rides!
Steve , as always just brilliant, off subject Steve, In the honor of my late father, Galerio Marconi, Galerio finally got one the John B. Campbell, I watched the race on one knee as I talked to my dad, what a race, I bred and raised Galerio, from a mare I saved her life, broken front ankle, got her free, and she produce a race horse like GALERIO, take a look at his brilliant race record. What a ride, its what horse racing is about , you just can’t make up this story, God I love horses and racing. Steve thank you for what you have done for this sport, God Bless you my man!!! Daniel Marconi
I watched that race. It was so exciting. I’m so happy for you and the horse. What a great way to honor your father. Some day we should do a story on that.
Steve thank so much , when you say do it just let me know, its a wonderful story!!! Daniel Marconi
Will do
Steve
Your mention of D. Wayne Lukas, regarding Secret Oath, brought back memories of another filly he trained back in the early 80’s. Her name was Landaluce, who was undefeated in 5 career starts, as a 2yr. old, 4 of which were graded races. Unfortunately, she died from complications of Colitis X, and never raced as a 3yr. old. Her connections, especially Mr. Lukas must have been devastated.
I was in attendance at the Del Mar racetrack, on 9-5-1982, when Landaluce won the Del Mar Debutante, and was awe stuck by her beauty and presence.
BTW, Landaluce happens to be my all-time favorite thoroughbred racehorse. There’s no telling what she could have accomplished as a 3yr. old. Such a tragic loss to her connections and her fans.
RIP Landaluce.
Bill, loved Landaluce. Watched every race she ran….what a special filly she was.
Bill, I was at Los Al the following night after this filly died and Los Al played an interview on their intercom for all to hear about how D. Wayne Lukas told his story of his last few moments with Landaluce and how he held this filly’s head in his lap all to succumb to colitis X that nearly killed her sire…..Seattle Slew…..they had to stop the interview because Lukas couldn’t contain himself and started to cry.
Thank you, John, for sharing that emotional story. I was unaware that Mr. Lukas actually held Landaluce’s head in his lap as she was dying. As I was reading your post, I came close to tears as well. My heart goes out to D. Wayne Lukas for suffering the tragic loss of Landaluce, even though it comes 40 years after the fact.
I wish Mr. Lukas all the best, moving forward, with his promising filly, Secret Oath.
Wow! I would’ve been in tears listening to Lukas. How gut wrenching!
And they think trainers don’t get emotionally involved with horses. Beautiful story. Such a sad ending for a great filly. Thanks for sharing, John.
John, I wish I could have seen her – if there were internet back then, she would have been huge. Her Hollywood Lassie is breathtaking….. Lukas said later on that, due to his experiences with Landaluce, he never allowed himself to get attached to a horse again.
I remember reading that people wondered if she’d stretch out successfully given that her margin of victory in her last race was much narrower……
This phenomenal filly will finally hopefully get her due when a book on her is published this spring : Landaluce: The Story of Seattle Slew’s First Champion,…….by Mary Perdue.
Seattle Slew lost two incredible horses early – Landaluce and Swale.
Betsy
Thanks for the heads up on that upcoming book by Mary Perdue. I’ll be looking forward to learning more about Landaluce.
Betsy
I just googled the Barnes & Noble web site, which revealed the book you referenced will be available on July 5, 2022.
It can be pre-ordered, if desired.
Hi Bill
I pre-ordered that a month or so ago! I’m already crying at how it ends, but I’m sure it’s going to be a wonderful tribute to a brilliant filly!
Hi Betsy
I will pre-order the book as well. Thanks again for the heads up on Landaluce, my all-time favorite racehorse.
Hopefully, the book will include several photos of Landaluce in various settings.
I would think that D. Wayne Lukas contributed a considerable amount of reference material to Mary Perdue, when she was writing “Landaluce: The Story of Settle Slew’s First Champion”.
Thanks for the information, Betsy. By the way, Betsy, Golden Cade might do the business in the Gotham Stakes. Good luck.
Hi David – you’re welcome!
I think it’s interesting that Pletcher is taking a chance, but why not? If he can’t stretch out or the competition is too much, he can always go back to state bred ranks – Golden Code is talented. Interestingly, Todd expects Dean’s List to be forwardly placed – Golden Code has shown speed in his two starts, but he doesn’t strike me as intractable, so perhaps he’ll sit off the pace.
Fingers crossed for a positive outcome with Golden Code. Honor Code needs a 3 year old colt to make a noise right now.
Hello Steve – it’s getting down to crunch time with the Derby Preps offering 50 to the winner now. I am circling April 9 on my calendar because my 2 KDFW horses are running that day. Zandon in the Bluegrass and Commandperformance in the wood Memorial. Zandon continues to amaze , and unless Smile Happy shows up he could be the FAV in the Bluegrass. Hoping Zandon trains lights out in preperation for the Bluegrass and breaks well and can show his breakout talent in the Bluegrass. I like you hope and am confident that Commandperformance will bring his A game as the likely big FAV in a MSW at TB on March 12. A commanding performance by CP should set him up well for the Wood a Memorial where a strong second will punch his ticket to Louisville for a horse who for the most part has been flying way under the radar. The 33-1 I got in KDFW3 on CP could be a steal if he can round back in the form that garnered him a strong second to Star ⭐️ colt Jack Christopher in the Champagne. I am super excited to have Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1. Zandon could be the KY Derby FAV if he wins the Bluegrass.
Hey what do you know, it was my turn to get lucky this weekend. Bet 200 in the Rebel, 150 of it to Place on Ethereal Road. Feels good after whiffing on Pappacap the week before. 🙂
Looking ahead to the FOY, boy it looks competitive. Due In Time, A.P.’s Secret, and Emmanuel look scary. Howling Time is going nuts in the a.m. Then oh yeah, you might want to include Simplification, Rattle N Roll, and Mo Donegal. Can’t wait to read everyone’s thoughts on this race in the coming days.
High Oak and Giant Game.
I skipped over them initial glance. Will have to take a second and third look.
I will be shocked if Rattle N Roll goes off at 12-1. I was thinking that I might risk a few dollars on him at 5-1. The trouble is that Gulfstream is a speed favoring track and that finish line comes up real quick. But, there could be enough speed signed up to give Kenny McPeek that “set up” that he says the horse needs. Lots of ways to go in this race. How about an all Not This Time Trifecta: Simplification, Howling Time, and In Due Time. It could happen. Even though he is a Florida-Bred, I think that Steve Haskin is right when he writes that Simplification could be heavily bet. In fact, with Mo Donegal drawing the #12 post, I wouldn’t be surprised if Simplification goes off as the favorite. Simplification changed his style in The Holy Bull because of a bad break. If he reverts to going for the lead, he could find some company up there with him. Like Steve says, a stalking trip could serve him best.
I wouldnt be surprised if Mo Donegal is scratched and re-routed to Tampa. We’ll see what Todd does.
Last Saturday’s “Fireworks” in Saudi Arabia and at Oaklawn have me looking for longshots. Howling Time is tearing up the track in his workouts. If he can go back to a stalking style like he used in his first 2 winning races, that could be just the recipe for an upset victory. Howling Time is another horse that comes out of that “key race” Kentucky Jockey Cup. I’ve never been a huge fan of betting Dale Romans’ horses off the layoff, but, the horse is drawn well and the workout times are “eye-catching”. If Joe Talamo can pull it off, it could indeed be “Howling Time” for his backers at what should be good odds.
I think the fact it seems to be so speed favoring makes this race all that much tougher to handicap. I would expect a legit place, but the bias should help them stay on. I find this race fascinating.
It a horrible line because it’s supposed to represent what the track handicapper expects the post-time odds to be. I can’t imagine RNR being more than 8-1. I can imagine him being lower than 8-1.
Markhamian intrigues me! Was impressed with his one turn win….In Due Time intrigues me because of this guy making so many wagers on him! Agree with your top pick Smile Happy, I like a big frame and thought his comeback was solid!
Markhamian is bred to go long so I’m curious to see what they do with him. And why is he here and not Tampa Derby? I’m intrigued by that
With the rail draw I guess they send! For the points….not sure they want to get behind the pace, and stuck inside. At least come out running and if there’s a hot pace then get behind a few—rail draw kind of makes up your mind about it.
It looks like your list is slowly rounding into form. You make excellent points on all of these young 3 year olds.
Personally I am still kind of clueless. Many of these horses are so lightly raced picking a winner is mostly like throwing darts. I thank you for making some sense of this though. You are a bright beacon in a raging sea.
I will say that I concur with your assessment of Lanerie’s ride on Smile Happy. If it were me I would have immediately taken him off the horse for any future races. I have no confidence in Lanerie with a 20 horse field.
I like 5 horses right now
Zandon
Smile Happy
White Abarrio
Messier
Classic Causeway
Many thanks for your hard work……..
I appreciate that Deacon. Thank you very much. I cant have confidence in Lanerie after that last ride.
Hi Steve
Many thanks for your in-depth analysis on this week’s Derby Rankings. To be honest, I was shocked to see High Oak listed at #8. Obviously, we all have our own methods of handicapping races, and the criterion we utilize that will hopefully, identify the winner in any given race. From my perspective, High Oak will be up against it in the FOY running against Simplification, RNR, In Due Time, Emmanuel, Howling Time, Dean Delivers, Markhamian and A.P.’s Secret (my longshot pick).
Just out of curiosity, will High Oak remain on your Derby Rankings, Week 8, if he fails to hit the board in the FOY?
Thanks for all you do Steve.
I really didnt handicap High Oak. I liked him last year and love his works, but I heard things from very close connections that made me rank him high. If he wins or runs huge I will reveal them
Fair enough, thanks for the reply Steve.
Agree, this could be the year a filly wins the Derby especially with the ‘mess’ regarding Baffert/Churchill Downs/KHRC/NYRA.. And who else to accomplish this but D. Wayne Lukas….love that interview with him with his cat over his shoulder the other day….I did notice that the CHRB issued a statement just after the KHRC issued their dq of Medina Spirit specially saying that no violations were detected into this horse’s death and no further investigations is needed….could this ‘mess’ be morphing into a regional or ‘what side are you on?’ issue?
Whatever you think of Baffert I’d like to see anybody take on the bullies.
Steve, question….’bullies’ – do you mean the organized and ‘in place’ powers that be?
Churchill Downs
Thanks, that’s what I suspected.
Just because they act like racetracks and for that matter, the Jockey Club did in the 1890s and 1900s, doesn’t mean they are bullies! NOT.
Racetracks routinely “ruled off” trainers, jockeys and even horses for infractions minor and large back in the day. The heavy handed nature of what’s going on now is a throwback. (Caroll Shilling, the greatest jockey of his era and a troubled soul, I’m thinking of you.)
I don’t understand 12-1 on Rattle n Roll in the Fountain of Youth. It vexes me. I’m terribly vexed.
I never get his odds, even in the Future Wager. I just dont understand it.
Mr. Haskin, nice read as usual. Like CC, Zandon, High Oak going forward.
I am also very surprised: I am placing the following at Circa tomorrow: RNR @ 30-1; Secret Oath at 45-1; and Simplification at100-1! Odds too good to pass up! I am really looking forward to the FOY: great betting race…Good luck everybody!
biggy312
Get those 100-1 odds on Simplification while you can. After he wins the FOY, those odds will drop big time.
I felt fortunate to have a $100.00 win bet on him in Futures Pool 2, at 43-1, and boxed him with ALL in my $2.00 exacta wagers. In addition, I bet another $100.00 win wager on RNR, at 34-1, back in December. Evidently, the odds on RNR haven’t changed that much. I believe RNR will finish 2nd to Simplification in the FOY.
At any rate, the FOY should be a great Derby prep race.
Bill, I really like your tri/super wager on the FOY. Those futures are at nice odds! I really hope you cash your exacta futures! I don’t have nearly the coverage this year that I had last year, but think almost any could win the first week of May. I have a friend here in Las Vegas who can win over $8k if RNR wins and $5k or so potential payoff if Smile Happy wins; it is his first run with futures and he is having a blast! I think I am getting vicarious pleasure from watching him wager. I remember seeing Winning Colors win the SA Derby: she was a monster!
biggy312
Thanks for the reply. Regarding my exacta Futures in Pool #2, the best-case scenario for me, would be White Abarrio winning the Derby and Simplification finishing 2nd. That finish would pay me $9,099.00. If the order of finish were reversed, the exacta would pay me $7,183.00. Is this a pipe dream? Without question. 🙂