Derby Rankings: Week 7
The Derby picture got a lot clearer, at least at the very top, when Greatest Honour and Essential Quality separated themselves from the others, at least until next weekend’s San Felipe Stakes, which will be accompanied by the Gotham and Tampa Bay Derby. Stay tuned for another busy weekend on the Derby trail. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 7, Mar. 1
By Steve Haskin
1. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
At the half-mile pole of the Fountain of Youth Stakes, he had lost his No. 1 ranking to Essential Quality. Less than a minute later he had it back, as he somehow managed to make up a ton of ground, despite the shortened Gulfstream stretch to blow by the pace-setting Drain the Clock in the final yards to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths. The truth is, I was expecting him to take a slight step backward after his brilliant score in the Holy Bull, in which I thought he may have run too fast too soon, as reflected in his big jump to a “1” Thoro-Graph figure and a 103 Brisnet figure. I would have taken a fast-closing second, but he has emerged as a truly exceptional colt. He probably did regress just a bit on Saturday, but was good enough to pull this one out with a furious closing kick. I feel this performance sort of leveled him off after that monster effort and should be a perfect steppingstone to the Florida Derby. We’ll see if that is backed up by his Thoro-Graph number. But what is most important is that this colt continues to show new dimensions, a will to win, and he always fires. With three 1 1/16-mile races and a gut-wrenching stretch battle at 1 1/8 miles in less than four months, he will appreciate the five-weeks off after the Florida Derby.
2. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
Well, he still paddles that left leg, but who cares? He just keeps winning and I feel he and Greatest Honour are nose and nose for the top spot. He obviously is the more versatile of the two and can be placed anywhere on the track. And give him a load of credit for turning in this strong a performance after having the race postponed twice, shipping to Oaklawn, and running on a tiring sloppy track. So far, this colt has shown he can do it all, and as the 2-year-champ likely will be No. 1 on most Derby rankings and deservedly so. But of the two sons of Tapit, Greatest Honour gets our nod because he has a stronger mile and a quarter pedigree, although Essential Quality should have no problem with the 10 furlongs. To be honest neither horse beat the toughest field, with Greatest Honour running down a horse making his two-turn debut and Essential Quality beating Spielberg, who lost all chance at the start when he ducked sharply to the outside, dropped to the back of the pack, and then lost ground into the first turn. Essential Quality’s main threat, Jackie’s Warrior, had no excuse and was done by the quarter pole. But all in all you couldn’t have asked for a better result from both horses.
3. Life is Good (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
OK, no more comments about his consistently sensational works and his flawless mechanics and how we haven’t seen a more beautiful moving horse since American Pharoah. It is finally time for all the morning praise to be replaced by equally strong accolades for his actions in the afternoon. Oh, OK, one more. He turned in yet another strong work on Sunday, going six furlongs in 1:12 1/5. Perhaps Baffert is right when he calls him “a beast.” Now we wait for Saturday’s loaded San Felipe Stakes, which will determine Southern California’s leading Derby contender. It is still only a mile and a sixteenth, so there is a lot of ground to cover before these horses get to a mile and a quarter. The question with him, and many of the Into Mischiefs, is whether he will be as effective stretching out to 10 furlongs. Although Life is Good’s female ancestors were sprinters tracing back to the swift Woodward filly Court Circuit, there is plenty of stamina from the males, and Court Circuit was versatile enough as a broodmare to produce the top-class late-running sprinter Honorable Miss, winner of the Fall Highweight Handicap twice, and her full-brother Bailjumper, winner of the Dwyer and Saranac, who is the grandsire of Skip Away and broodmare sire of Medaglia d’Oro. It is just a question of whether the sires or dams in his female family will prove dominant.
4. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
There is a reason I had him ranked No. 8 in the first Derby Rankings and kept him ranked until his baffling race in the Sam F. Davis Stakes when he pretty much fell asleep and didn’t wake up until the eighth pole when it was way too late. So a frustrated Pletcher added blinkers and Lasix for a mile and eighth last gasp allowance race Friday, and he certainly ran back to that initial high ranking with a powerful 11-length romp in a solid 1:50 2/5. Despite his being shoved four-wide into the first turn, you could tell down the backstretch this was a different horse, as he was striding out beautifully with great extension and was just biding his time. When it was time to go he quickly pounced on the leaders after a testing third quarter in :23 2/5, put the talented Top Gun Tommy, winner of his last two starts, away and bounded clear, winning in hand with his ears pricked and running perfectly straight down the stretch. One of the reasons I loved this horse from the start, in addition to his gutsy victory over Greatest Honour going nine furlongs, is the great European sire line on the dam side, which you can read about in Week 1’s rankings. I am going to assume it was the blinkers that woke him up and not the Lasix, and based on what I know he’s capable of, I am banking on this being the real Known Agenda and that we’re going to see a heckuva rematch between him and Greatest Honour in the Florida Derby. For now, welcome back to the Top 12.
5. Risk Taking (Chad Brown, Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
He has run back-to-back mile and an eighth races, and you have to go back to the days of the Everglades, Flamingo, and Florida Derby to find a horse who went into the Kentucky Derby off three straight mile and an eighth races. That is another reason why I call this colt a throwback. He has that “hickory” look to him in that he is tough, sound, and runs hard. With all the speedy lightly raced horses pointing for the Derby we need horses like him. With Medaglia d’Oro and Forty Niner in his pedigree and being inbred to both Damascus and Buckpasser, you’re not going to find bloodlines with tougher, sounder horses. We really don’t know yet how talented he is, but he did defeat two pretty good horses in Overtook and Capo Kane in the Withers Stakes and did it the right way. And he’s only going to improve off that. Bad weather and poor track conditions in New York made a workout too risky, but there is plenty of time to the Wood and he is dead fit, so Brown has no concerns at all putting the work off.
6. Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker)
He had his first work since his Risen Star victory, breezing an easy half in :50. Nothing to do now but wait for the Louisiana Derby where he will be stretching out to a mile and three-sixteenths. Let’s do something different this week and look at the Derby gods angle. Of course, this is a far cry from Mrs. Genter or the Sunshine Boys, Paul Mellon and Mack Miller, but what better time for one of racing’s great institutions, Juddmonte Farms, to get their first Derby winner after second-place finishes by Aptitude and Empire Maker. This would be the perfect year to celebrate the racing life of owner Khalid Abdullah, who passed away in January. Juddmonte bred Mandaloun’s dam, second dam, and third dam; bred his second dam’s sire Dansili; and bred Mandaloun’s broodmare sire, Empire Maker, and his dam Toussaud. The Derby is one of the few classics Juddmonte has not won. They have captured 13 classics in England, six in Ireland, and eight in France, plus five Arc de Triomphes. In America, they won the Belmont Stakes with Empire Maker, six Breeders’ Cup races, and won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, Travers, and Pegasus World Cup with Arrogate, who died at the age 7 last June. We’ll see if the Derby gods are watching.
7. The Great One (Doug O’Neill, Nyquist – Little Ms. Protocol, by El Corredor)
He turned in a strong six-furlong work in 1:12 2/5 in company for Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes. It is time to find out once and for all if he is worthy of his name and the person after whom he is named. Wayne Gretzky played several years as a King and a victory would make his namesake the king of California and among the top three early favorites for the Kentucky Derby. This is a big step up from a maiden victory, even if he did win by 14 lengths. But let’s remember he did get beat a nose in a Grade 2 stakes before that and has been a different horse since the addition of blinkers. Spielberg, who beat him in a near dead-heat in the Los Alamitos Futurity, ran a huge race to be second to Essential Quality in Saturday’s Southwest Stakes despite a horrendous trip and on his best day is a classy formidable opponent. As we’ve mentioned, The Great One’s last-out Thoro-Graph figure makes him the co-fastest 3-year-old in the country and Brisnet backs that up with his back-to-back triple-digit numbers, so he does have the credentials to suggest a possible star in the making. He will back that up if he can knock off Life is Good, Medina Spirit, and Roman Centurian on Saturday. If Life is Good is as special as he’s looked, then a solid second-place finish will still propel him into the ranks of leading Derby contenders.
8. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, Laoban – Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
It’s difficult to put this any other way, but his schedule is totally messed up. There is nothing wrong with giving a horse two preps for the Derby, such as the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, but this horse was working lights out and was fit and sharp and ready for his debut in the Southwest Stakes. Then it was postponed a week and then another week, during which time he was unable to train; that’s three weeks with no works and two weeks with no training. Rather than run in the Southwest as planned off no training, he is now forced to wait another four weeks for the Rebel on top of the two weeks with no training. Can he still win the Kentucky Derby? Of course he can, but Diodoro is going to have to take a finely tuned athlete primed and ready for a race and start all over again. Even his first work back wasn’t ideal, as it came up sloppy for his five-furlong breeze in 1:03 1/5. So all we can do now is wait and see how he continues to train and how he looks going into the Rebel.
9. Caddo River (Brad Cox, Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats)
He remains sharp, working five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at his new home base at Fair Grounds, where he has been stabled since Oaklawn Park closed down for racing and training due to prolonged horrible weather conditions. What looked like a possible thin field for the Rebel Stakes now appears to be a very competitive race with Baffert sending the undefeated Concert Tour; the addition of Keepmemind, who had to finally give up his attempt at the Southwest Stakes; and the 3-year-old debut of American Pharoah winner Get Her Number. This will be the test we need to see for this colt, who has been outdistancing lesser competition, but looking very good doing it. He has had an interesting Thoro-Graph pattern, pairing up a 9 1/2 in his first two starts, and then pairing up a 4 1/4 in his next two starts. So he should move up several points in the Rebel. His Brisnet figures show a steady progression of 87, 89, 94, and 96, and another move forward will make him very formidable, regardless of who he is running against. His strength is his mid-race speed, which has run his opponents off their feet allowing him to open up and cruise home from there. All we need to see now is for him to use more of his speed in the last part of the race when better horses will be testing him.
10. Roman Centurian (Simon Callaghan, Empire Maker – Spare Change, by Bernardini)
OK, if you bet this colt in the last Future Wager at 41-1, this is your opportunity to put that ticket in a safe place and guard it with your life, because it is going to be a valued commodity if he runs big in the San Felipe, considering he is only going to get better going a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter. And with two Baffert beasts in there as well as the vastly improving The Great One, he doesn’t have to win this race going a mile and a sixteenth, just like he didn’t have to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, in which he came out of his blanket third-place finish smelling like roses, while earning a faster Thoro-Graph number than the winner. If he is closing again and is right there against theses horses then you can expect bigger and better things to come. He tuned up for the race with a sharp half-mile work in :48 1/5. Look for him to take the outside route again and come charging late. He did have every chance in the Robert Lewis, but considering the wider trip and coming off a maiden race, there is no reason to think he won’t improve off that effort.
11. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
Baffert has been in a dilemma trying to figure out where to run him. He already has horses confirmed for the San Felipe, Gotham, and Rebel Stakes. With no Sunland Derby this year there simply is no place to run him without doubling up. So after a so-so work last week, Baffert wanted to see how he worked on Saturday before confirming him for the San Felipe. As it turned out he worked “great” according to Baffert after his sharp six-furlong drill in a bullet 1:11 1/5, so we now have a rematch to look forward to, but this time you can bet Life is Good and Mike Smith are not going to fall asleep at the wheel and will have their foot on the gas all the way to the wire. Medina Spirit also will be ridden by john Velazquez, replacing Abel Cedillo who rode the colt in his first three starts. Medina Spirit has a sneaky good pedigree despite his little known sire and broodmare sire. There are plenty of class and stamina influences and his dam traces back to the Rokeby Stable owned and bred Leap Lively, who placed in the Epsom and Yorkshire Oaks and produced the dam of Blue Grass Stakes winner High Yield.
12. Proxy (Mike Stidham, Tapit – Panty Raid, by Include)
Although there have been small pockets of gold so far, you can’t help but feel it’s only a few more feet down before Stidham strikes the mother lode. He keeps digging but he may have finally found the right vein when he put blinkers on the colt for his last work and he sizzled a half in a bullet :47, fastest of 40 works at the distance. If ever a horse looked like he needed blinkers it’s this guy, who just has to learn to keep a straight course to go from being a good solid horse to a leading Derby contender. It is for that reason that he returns to the Top 12. After back-to-back “5” Thoro-Graph numbers, which is just OK, I fully expect him to improve several points with the blinkers and stretching out to a mile and three-sixteenths in the Louisiana Derby. With names like Broad Brush, Damascus, and Ack Ack in his female family, we know where he gets his toughness. Now we’ll see if he can use his five doses of Raise A Native and Mr. Prospector, along with the blinkers, to bring out his speed. We have seen how he manages to dig in and get up for second in his races. Now he has to take it one step further and get up for the win. That’s where we feel the blinkers will help.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
HOT ROD CHARLIE – Because he won’t be running for another three weeks, he has, for now, slipped just under the Top 12 until we can sort out the 3-year-old picture following next weekend’s three big stakes. We also need to sort out Doug O’Neill’s contenders, two of which will be running next Saturday. He is keeping busy, working five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. He’s still a very live contender and has proven to be a classy hard-knocking horse, so let’s see where he stands after next week.
OVERTOOK – He also has slipped from the No. 12 spot and we will know more once it is decided where he goes next. It was initially assumed he would remain in training New York and point for the Wood Memorial. He still may target that race, but has been shipped to Florida to train in better weather. He breezed a half in :50 at Palm Beach Downs in company with Dynamic One, and we’ll see where they decide to go with him.
CONCERT TOUR – He is sitting just below the Top 12 waiting to jump aboard with a victory in the Rebel Stakes, but we’ll have to wait two weeks to see if Bob Baffert’s praise for him is warranted. If he can beat the likes of Caddo River and Keepmeinmind in his two-turn debut after only a pair of sprints then we will know for sure he is the real deal and he will catapult up the rankings.
SENOR BUSCADOR – This year’s Cinderella story is over, at least as the Derby is concerned. The colt suffered a strained ligament and if off the Derby trail, just as his brother was three years ago. Hopefully there will other chapters to write for this talented horse.
To show just how dominant Greatest Honour and Essential Quality were in their own way on Saturday, there is not another horse coming out of the Fountain of Youth and Southwest Stakes that can be considered a serious Derby horse. That either says a lot about the two winners or more about the quality of horses they were beating. DRAIN THE CLOCK ran his heart out on the front end in his two-turn debut, but going longer distances certainly is a major question mark. He had every chance to win this race, controlling the pace and opening a clear lead at the eighth pole. SPIELBERG on his best day is a formidable opponent, but still is ranked No. 4 in the Baffert barn, although he did run big considering his horrible start. PAPETU, who actually had some decent Thoro-Graph numbers going into the Fountain of Youth, showed enough promise coming from far back to finish third to suggest that he could move forward in his next race and put himself into the mix. The obvious big disappoints were PRIME FACTOR, who surprisingly was farther back than expected and never fired, and FIRE AT WILL, who it is assumed will return to the grass. As for JACKIE’S WARRIOR, it looks like one turn will be his game unless the sloppy track simply was too tiring for him.
As much as I don’t like horses going into the Kentucky Derby off only three career starts (only freakishly talented horses like Justify and Big Brown have been successful in less than stellar fields), there are several horses apparently heading in that direction that have left a very strong impression and are worth following closely despite the task they will be undertaking. I am now resigned to the act that yesterday’s rules and trends no longer apply in these abbreviated career times. We really don’t know any of these horses going into the Derby anymore, so we’re all guessing.
The first horse who caught my eye was the New York-bred NICKY THE VEST, who like Tiz the Law is a New York-bred in name only. In his first start going a mile, he broke last and then made a dramatic move to take the lead on his own. He eased clear and won for fun by 3 1/4 lengths. In the one-mile Gander Stakes, he broke sharply and contested the early lead before again opening up on his own nearing the quarter pole and extending his lead through the stretch, winning by nearly 12 lengths, with Todd Pletcher’s undefeated Rego Park Stakes winner Perfect Munnings finishing third. What impressed me about this colt was his professionalism, especially for a May 11 foal; his smooth action, and how perfectly balanced he was, never deviating off his path in the stretch.
His paternal grandsire is a Kentucky Derby winner and his maternal grandsire is a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and he is inbred three times to the great Nijinsky. By Runhappy, he has a strong Paul Mellon (Rokeby Stable) influence in his female family and you don’t get much classier than that. In the just the bottom half of his female family are four Travers winners – Java Gold, Key to the Mint, Damascus, and Sword Dancer. And his fifth dam, Quill, was champion 3-year-old filly and the dam of top-class stayers One For All and Caucasus and the granddam of champion grass horse Run the Gantlet, winner of the Washington D.C. International, Man o’ War, and United Nations. Instead of running in the Gotham at one mile again, he will wait for the Wood Memorial. Expect to hear from this colt come April.
And then we come to SOUP AND SANDWICH, one of the most intriguing and fun horses we’ve seen all year. This striking gray son of Into Mischief has toyed with his opponents in his two starts despite not having a clue what he’s supposed to be doing. He breaks to the inside, gawks at everything, loses focus, and has no idea what he’s doing when it comes to his lead changes. We don’t know what he was beating in his maiden win at Gulfstream and allowance score at Tampa Bay going two turns, but he’s just out there having fun and goofing around. In his first start going 6 1/2 furlongs he just cruised to the lead on his own and drew off with ease to win by 7 1/4 lengths in a sharp 1:16 4/5 without changing leads until 30 yards from the wire and constantly looking at the grandstand. After returning he stood for a while just staring into the infield and had to be coaxed into turning around to head to the winner’s circle.
In his next start against only two opponents, he threw his head in the air as if intimidated when a horse started drifting in towards him. Then he managed to get himself boxed in down the backstretch in a three-horse field. But when the rail opened up he just burst to the lead while still under a hold. This time he changed leads inside the eighth pole, but ducked sharply to the inside for no apparent reason, jumped back to his left lead, then immediately back to his right lead. I mention this horse in depth because I don’t believe we have seen anything even close to his best, and who knows what’s in store once he figures it all out? Even trainer Mark Casse says he is clueless, but extremely talented. Casse said he didn’t even take a deep breath after this last race. He and owner Charlotte Weber, who surely does not wear rose-colored glasses, think so highly of him they are going to throw him right into the Florida Derby. When this horse figures it all out we could see something special. I just don’t know when that will be.
And to add one more, we had yet another freakish Into Mischief pop up and run off the screen when Three Chimneys Farm homebred COLLABORATE demolished his field in a one-mile maiden race at Gulfstream, winning wire to wire under wraps by 12 1/2 lengths for Saffie Joseph in his second career start. His breeder Three Chimneys Farm sold him as a yearling for $600,000 to Bob Edwards and stayed in for part ownership. He had a few niggling physical problems that delayed his debut, but he showed enough promise for his owners to be patient with him. But that patience might be over, as Joseph is so high on him he is considering a jump into a major stakes race in order to possibly pick up enough points to get in the Derby. We’ll have to see if he becomes another late starter to try to get in the Derby off three career starts.
No, we’re not done quite yet. This past weekend we also saw a huge performance in the Pasadena Stakes by ROCK YOUR WORLD, who is now undefeated in two starts on the grass. The son of Candy Ride has mainly dirt influences in his pedigree and he showed he can rate off the pace and rocket home in the final furlong. But when I saw how strong he galloped out and how far he went at such a rapid clip it was time to find out if there was a major Derby prep in his immediate future. Sure enough, the plan is to run in one of the preps to get Derby points but it will be up to trainer John Sadler to decide which prep to use. And so we have another one to start following.
CAPO KANE, who will be cutting back to a mile in the Gotham, turned in a sharp five-furlong drill in 1:00 1/5 at Parx. The one-mile race looks to be the proverbial barn burner with the Baffert-trained FREEDOM FIGHTER, who just worked a bullet five furlongs in :59 1/5, fastest of 53 works at the distance; the brilliant HIGHLY MOTIVATED, who will be making his 3-year-old debut; and another California shipper, WIPE THE SLATE, who worked six furlongs in 1:11 3/5 and will race without blinkers after getting too speed crazy early in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Previously he had run second to Life is Good before breaking his maiden impressively.
The exciting maiden winner PREVALENCE, who was forced to miss the Fountain of Youth after spiking a fever, returned to the work tab, breezing a half in :48 2/5 in company and on the inside with the rider’s hands motionless throughout. CANDY MAN ROCKET worked a sharp half-mile in :48 2/5 at Payson Park, which is fast time over that track. He will try for a stakes double in the Tampa Bay Derby. HIDDEN STASH, who still needs to learn how to change leads, tuned up for the Tampa Bay Derby with a five-furlong breeze in 1:02 at Payson Park.
American Pharoah winner GET HER NUMBER is starting to get serious, working six furlongs in 1:13 at San Luis Rey Downs. Trainer Peter Miller says he’s not ready for the San Felipe, so they will wait for the Rebel Stakes for his 3-year-old debut. El Camino Real Derby winner ROMBAUER, whose next start is still to be decided, stayed sharp with a half-mile work in :48 flat.
My super duper Derby maiden longshot DYNAMIC ONE is scheduled to try one more time to get back that “W” he should have gotten in his last start when he goes in a mile and a eighth maiden race next Sunday. He worked a half in :50 in company with the newly arrived Overtook. This obviously is his last chance to catapult himself into the Derby picture and one of the major final preps. Remsen winner BROOKLYN STRONG finally made it back to the work tab after a series of setbacks, blowing out three furlongs in :36 4/5. With the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby mentioned as possible first starts back, that would be the ultimate in Derby fever.
In the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park, HUSH OF A STORM made it three-for-three on Polytrack with an impressive come from behind victory, in which he rallied from eighth to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths despite trying to lug in. Unfortunately, his only start on dirt in his career debut was a dismal effort.
I really think Medina Spirit is going to surprise in the derby. I’m going to say best price/payout of the top 3 finishers. Up close on that early fast pace in the Anita, widest on both turns, and finished very respectable. Steve always gives clues in his past posts. And I love to hear “tough” and “sneaky good pedigree”.
Sneak peak: Steve’s rankings for March 8
1. Greatest Honour
2. Essential Quality
3. Life Is Good
4. Known Agenda
5. Risk Taking
6. Mandaloun
7. Keepmeinmind
8. Caddo River
9. Proxy
10. Hot Rod Charlie
11. Weyburn
12. Concert Tour
When is the last time a three year old ran a 107 Beyer and 130 timeform by the first week of March? You must have very high standards. Btw LIG ran faster than older horses including Maxfield…
You must have missed where I wrote “Steve’s rankings for March 8.”
Just another Baffert horse carrying sprinter speed 8.5 furlongs, nothing to see here. Guy is an absolute joke, known juicer, and the CA board protects him to no end, as does the industry as a whole. Lidocaine Bob
Life Is Good truly impresses me. Love his look, the manner in which he carries himself, as he appears to be the epitome of the athletic thoroughbred. Win or lose from here on in, I’m basically convinced that he’s superior to any of Baffert’s 2020 3 yr. olds. At this point in his career he reminds me most of No Robbery after his Wood Memorial win. No Robbery bucked shins in his Derby, but probably couldn’t stay the trip. As far as the “staying”, also a concern for LIG owing mostly to pedigree concerns. Not in love with LIG’s distaff side, quality-wise, and it’s is the lone negative thing I can say about this horse.
Hi sceptre, you are right about the resemblance between No Robbery and Life is Good. I went through some photographs and watched the 1963 Wood Memorial on YouTube.
At this stage, Greatest Honour impresses me the most but in a 20 horse field he’ll need a lgreat deal of racing luck.
LIG is now 3/2 in the KDFW!! Somebody just loaded up on him. I don’t care how great you think he is, or how convinced you are that he’ll win the KD, betting ANY horse at that price is just not smart!! As long as GH, CR, EQ and CT stay healthy and get in the gate, you’ll get at least 5-2 on him when he leaves the gate ON derby day!! So unless somebody is predicting injuries to every other quality horse, this was just an insane wager. But…..it did give us some value on the others!
LIG BSF 107
Yeah, EddieF, that’s scary high. Before I second-guess his ability to do it over a mile and quarter, I remember American Pharoah and Justify.
Justify was more lightly raced (one fewer start) but didn’t earn his top BSF of 107 until the SA Derby. Has LIG run too fast, too soon? But as I mentioned earlier, which of the Derby hopefuls can keep up with LIG in the early stages? The only possibility at this point is Caddo River. Unless an owner of a current prospect has a speedster that can qualify for a spot in the gate, there’s no other possibility. Eager to see the BRIS number, and also the Thoro-Graph fig.
Equibase is giving LiG 110 Speed Figure for the San Felipe which is the same as that of the Sham.
Does not sound logical to me … it should be at least 3 or points higher. The split times and the final 102 seconds merit much higher evaluation than the Sham’s.
Go figure !
I don’t follow or use equibase, so I’m not familiar with their ratings. What’s a typical Grade 1 figure? What’s considered good, great, excellent?
Thanks
For the Breeder’s Cup Classic the typical Equibase Figures are ranging from 119 to 122. The best one was Skip Away with 136, Gun Runner was given 130 and the lowest one was for Bayern with 113.
The current table for 3-year-old prospects shows Life is Good with 110, Medina Spirit 109, Concert Tour 106, Essential Quality 105, Weyburn 105 and Greatest Honour with 103.
I would say that 85 to 90 is good, 91 to 105 is excellent, 106 to 114 is superior and greater than 115 would be reserved for great horses.
Having said that, it is best practice to contrast all the Speed Figures available in order to draw more accurate conclusions… also the distance are the interpretation of track bias are important differentiators.
Thanks for your explanation!
Perhaps, more importantly is that, according to that Company, your horse should be able to run around 112 to win the Derby …
I can only imagine the Thoro-Graph will be way, way below zero. Have to rely on Steve for those!
Hello Steve, I am now on the Helium bandwagon. Coming off of a 4 month layoff he put a strong effort in to win the TB Derby. He dug in the stretch to repel Hidden Stash and remain undefeated. Like you said , we don’t know how good Helium could be, he may be exceptional. This horse has a good pedigree and is trained by Mark Casse. IMO he now becomes a live longshot contender for the KY Derby. He will likely be overlooked in KDFW5 and should be around 40-1. Good to see veteran jockey Jose Ferrer have the mount, he was all smiles after the TB Derby. Helium is now in with 50 points and Casse said he is considering training up to the Derby. Considering he ran well after the 4 month layoff, maybe the 8 week layoff would work for this horse.
I loved his race, actually was amazed by it. I had a long talk with Mark Casse this morning. More on that in my comments on Monday. He is getting the 8 weeks. Not sure how I feel about that, but e did run a mile and an eighth so I am ignoring the low Beyer number
Steve, your Derby Rankings will be fascinating this week. Life is Good was overwhelmingly the best in the San Felipe but looked horrible in so doing while there were so many no shows in the same race. Time to cast aside quite a few.
Steve, what are your thoughts on Unbridled Honor? I was really encouraged by how well he closed..I feel like he still has growing up to do; I think once he does, he’ll settle into being a mid-pack runner. So far in his career, he’s been all over the map. I don’t even care if he points for the Derby – he just strikes me as one to watch for as the season progresses
He ran about a mile and 3/8. Horse was 4 or 5 wide entire way. Thoro number will be very good I’d think
Thanks!
Life is good?……who said his mechanics were good?……they are NOT……they are BAD……..i dislike this horse………
Everyone has lost their minds……Triple crown?…….freak?…….lol……i don’t like him……
I actually think Bob should think about skipping SA derby……train him up to Ky……….which will make you think i’m insane……but remember who i am…….the guy that told you Trainers are changing…fewer preps…..more time off……REMEMBER?…….everyone was attacking me back then……NOW….. 5 weeks? thats not long enough……?……i was right……the game changed…….
Regardless……..i think he will get spanked in the derby,,,,,
Funny post: he will have a 10-20 Beyer point better advantage over the next two top choices in GH And EQ. Be specific about his bad mechanics? Skipping the SA derby is a dumb nonsensical idea. Bob will utilize the race as a training lesson in his mastery. LIG will get more and more mentally intelligent over time.
He runs with his head up…..he crossfires….watch out of gate…..he tries to get out….he drifts…..his stride shortens….he is HORRIBLE…………IS THAT ENOUGH FOR YOU? WATCH WHAT HAPPENS……
I must be crazy too. I don’t like him either, and I sure am not seeing American Pharoah in him. Nobody I’ve ever seen was or is as smooth as Pharoah. Baffert doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Life is BAD, I agree. Scrub. No Derby for Baffert this year.
Sarcasm….I love it!
Well ….. at this very moment ….. you got exactly 95% probability of being right …. on the other hand …. if you tell us who is your single favorite to win the Derby …. you will be equally 95% wrong….
I said his mechanics were good in his works. I didnt say they were good yesteday. I wasnt crazy with what I saw. I have already expressed that in the comments I’ve written for tomorrow. Therre is no doubt he is very fast. And yes lets have your early Derby horse.
Choose one reply:
1) Do you know how idiotic your post sounds to a sane person?
2) Remember who I am? The guy who said that all but one 3yo will win the Derby. REMEMBER?
3) I hope you haven’t lost Baffert’s phone number. He needs your advice now more than ever.
4) You love BSFs. Here’s one for you: 107
No…#2 was another guy. I was the guy who said that only one 3yo will win the Derby, and that all others will lose. LOL
not me
You may add the answer I gave someone criticizing Authentic’s antics in the Sham Stakes:
I don’t care if he runs like Bambi as long as he is the fastest of all. Sheer superiority relegates mechanics to academic discussions …
Of course, two months and an extra furlong might change things a lot … our pastime here right now is to just track how these young horses drive progress toward the main goal.
We could all probably handicap the Derby just as well by looking only at the final prep. But it wouldn’t be as much fun! Look at me…I’ve completely OD’ed on the future wager. Bet two more 40+ to 1 shots a few minutes ago: Proxy and Risk Taking. I need Vincent Vega to come at me with a hypodermic needle.
no…..i’m am not a numbers player…..you just are ignorant to what i do,…….maybe steve remembers……i was the one telling everyone a decade ago……training is changing….to “be ready” horses were going to have less preps…..more time off……people were attacking these views back then……NOW….. it has gone to “why is Knicks go running off only 4 weeks off”……it’s amazing…..
People said the same thing about Arrogate before classic…..you can think its crazy…you dont understand.
You are right, there is a big three….Life is Good will get a massive Beyer for that 1:42 1/5….faster than everyone, and trainer knows he has a special animal….I guess he will be a front running winner of his last prep, and so this fast horse….with his head high …..will try to wire the Kentucky Derby field….not easy, especially when everybody knows that’s the plan…..
Hello Steve, I was really impressed with Hidden Stash’s 2nd place performance in the TB Derby. He was far back and swung wide and was rolling in the stretch. He seems like distance will be his friend. He already has 22 derby points so he only needs a strong 3rd in his next race to get in. He has a win at Keeneland so I wonder if his connections will go for the Bluegrass next. He will likely be 50-1 in KDFW5 and to me he seems like a live longshot. What’s your take on Hidden Stash Steve? I wonder if he will crack into your dozen. I was disappointed that Roman Centurian could only get 4th in the SA Derby. They need to send him to ARK Derby or Wood Memorial IMO to get him more points. RC was running late but finished way behind LIG and never threatened.
Well, he did change leads finally. But I thought he had that race won and let a horse with two Polytrack races in his life come back to beat him. I still think he has improvement in him and should run beter next time. But he let this one slip away. One thing in his favor. the horse that beat him is undefeated and we have no idea how good he is. He might be exceptional. With that said I am going to give Hidden Stash a pass on this one because for some reason he was a run off before the race, throwing his head all over the place and was so out of control the outrider had to chase him down and grab him. That had to to take a lot out of him..
I mean…..maybe thats it, Steve, maybe that winner is all that, cuz Hidden Stash looked like a winner, and it surprised me that he was outfinished….still, they were well clear….
The way he ran off before the race and was so out of control that had to take something out of him, so as I said above i am giving him a pass.
Rafael Bejarano did a good job containing Hidden Stash. An improving colt.
kentucky derby?…….stash?…….how?
Has won there–twice—has improved every start….could get a piece of the Kentucky Derby, why not?
Why?
( it’s hidden….)
Life is good is a very fast horse but agree with Steve’s analysis that he still has to show he can go to 1 1/4. He may be leading into the stretch at Churchill but there will be some quality horses coming at him down the stretch. Not sure he can go the distance but boy is he fast.
That’s right, it’s the 6th March and there hasn’t even been one prep at 9f yet. How good was/is the opposition in the San Filipe? Prior to the San Felipe, you wondered whether the Californian colts were all very good or, alternatively, just average.
Considering Freedom Fighter’s performance against average Eastern colts in the Gotham and Life is Good’s overpowering performance in the San Felipe then the answer is one good colt.
Yes Life is Good is Authentically good. No surprise Baffert has the horse to beat again. Nobody behind LIG nor anybody coming out of either the Gotham or TB Derby can be considered to be anything other than fillers for the gate at Churchill.
If the San Felipe was full of KD fillers, the FOY and SW had fillers for allowance and future claiming races?
That was what happens when Life is Good is on a lonely lead, he is fast—but the two/three in that race are real nice three year olds, Dream Shake first two turns Life is Good has a turn of foot, alright—I wouldn’t say he is a cinch and i wouldn’t say the others are filler–Life is Good–when he gets things his way—will do that to you…
Dream Shake…ran third…needs a 2nd in some big race but he’s a good horse….if he gets in…he’s paying huge in the futures, at least he got his two turn race in, and it was pretty good—lets say–as a Kentucky Derby dark horse—-Dream Shake has my attention….
Don’t lump the losers of the San Felipe with Weyburn and Helium, they have enough points to enter the Kentucky Derby, not too many of the former are going. Weyburn is a front runner who may contest the lead, one if a few so far.
good luck with that…..
I’m not saying Weyburn will win or hit the board, but he’s one of the few so far who might contest the lead or try to stay close, needed in the Derby.
I mean, he qualified….maybe owners can pony up (pun intended) and pay for Weyburn to push the early Derby pace, they can use some pace help!
more questions than answers…nobody could have beat Life Is Good today—still, with a lonely lead–and you could see he was way too fast for them—he couldn’t run straight in the stretch—
Life is Good is a complete monster. His maiden win was the fastest 6.5 f at Del Mar since 2016. His second start LIG received the highest beyer for the crop of 3 year olds. His 3rd start he wins by 8 lengths and for sure another triple beyer. This is the favorite for the KD.
Listening to Bob afterwards, He stated that LIG is green, and he has not worked him that hard yet. WOW! I think the KD is LIG race to lose, meaning if LIG mentally is ready in 60 days he will win the KD. The race runs through LIG….
If 6 furlongs in 70 3/5 is not working hard then LiG is the second coming of Seattle Slew…!
Are you actually being serious? Lol.
Doesn’t look like any 3yo currently in the running can keep up with LIG. If Caddo River continues to do well, perhaps he can challenge LIG in the early going and allow a stalker or mid-pack closer to win the roses. LIG broke beautifully from Post 1 and got a half mile in a moderate 46 3/5. I’m not ready to anoint LIG the Derby winner, but he looks tough to beat right now.
If LIG matures, you might get another Pharoah or Justify rolling…
Life is Good is really goodddddd!
Life Is Very Good! Who can run with that beast?
His phobia to big screens is the only thing that can defeat him …!
But it is hard to defeat “the empire of speed” engendered by the White Haired Wizard.
You believe MIKE?……..seriously?
NO …. I believe in BAD SIGNS …. Anything else is a big LIE ….
Yay! Unbridled Honor ran really well to finish 4th – he didn’t threaten, but he closed very well …I think with time, he could be a good one.
I agree it was a nice effort from him. Did you see that Creed was back in an Optional Claiming today? He was also fourth. First race back in nine months.
Creed first, lol. Yes! I’ve been waiting forever for him! This was the only race he was eligible to run in, so Shug had no choice but to run him at 6F. He broke slowly, losing a length at the start, and put in a decent late run…….with a monster gallop out. My friend and I (on another board) have been chatting – we think Shug probably used this race as a workout, with the gallop out to build more foundation. Creed wasn’t primed to win, but he should next time. He looks bigger and stronger than last year.
UH closed from practically dead last, but I honestly don’t think he’s a dead closer; he’s still got growing up to do, and I think once he does, he will settle into a mid-pack running style. His maiden win was better than the number because he had trouble, so he continues to progress nicely. I’m not ALL IN on the Derby – I was really just interested to see if he could keep improving, and he did.
Yeah, Shug is old school and that’s exactly what allowance races are for – afternoon works that advance the horse’s progress. I was really impressed with UH’s maiden win. I thought he showed a lot of talent. A little green, maybe, but a lot of ability. I l
ook forward to seeing him again!
Shug is the perfect trainer to bring out his potential – and he won’t rush him, which is important to me.
Funny thing is, I was excited about UH before his debut, even more so after…but then he threw in a clunker against Risk Taker, and I was kind of down on him. His maiden win really impressed me as well as he showed so much agility and a really nice burst of speed. I’m also excited about his future !
Holy Cow, I bet Weyburn. I’m in shock. My comment on him in Week 1 — “Finally, the improving WEYBURN is working lights out at Belmont and bears watching when he stretches out to two turns.” He had setbacks since and I thought he wasnt ready for this, but I I bet him only because I knew he was a good horse and took a shot. I’ve been in constact with Jimmy Jerkens every week and he said he was pointing for an allowance race on Gotham day. Go figure
Congratulations, Steve! I sure didn’t see that coming. Was really pleased with Crowded Trade’s performance off one start. Just shows a high caliber mile stakes separates the sprinters from the middle distance horses.
Holy herd of cows! Great wager, Steve. He’s not nominated to the TC. Is it time? 🙂
Congrats Steve…! 46.8 to 1 must be one of your biggest pay off ever !
He is ahead for the Canadian Triple Crown already …
47.8 to one
Wow, congrats, Steve !!!
Very nice Steve, that’ll buy a nice dinner tonight!
Congrats Steve! That’s Awesome!
Thanks, everyone. It doesnt happen very often. I would love to see Jimmy Jerkens get to the Derby.
Steve Haskin –
Congratulations on a very good hit at 47-1. If by chance, you collect lapel pins as a hobby, go to the Secretariat Store on this website
and check out the collectibles/jewelry/Sterling Lapel Pin. It goes for $145 but you can afford it now. LOL. It will look nice the next time you have to wear a coat and appear on a talk show. I do collect lapel pins, but not the real fancy kind. Just the average, run-of-the-mill team sports and famous landmarks and big city types. Nice bit of handicapping.
7.5 Furlongs
I just saw the weight of Mastering … 1,349 lb (612 kilograms). I think he is the biggest Thoroughbred ever in America.
The Australian Holy Roller is the heaviest ever with 1,453 lb…
The Tampa Bay Derby looks like a minor league game compared to the competition in the West.
Since Carl Nafzger selected this Stakes for Street Sense’s sophomore debut the race has been noticed a bit more within the Derby trail.
Historically it is expected this Tampa Bay Derby to just feed the Derby with 30 to 1 entries, but still it got some interesting aspects at its parochial level.
It could mark Pletcher’s wakeup in the trail. He has traditionally used the Tampa Derby as a springboard in form for Super Saver and other notable Stakes winners like Vino Rosso, Verrazano, Tapwrit, Destin, Outwork, Carpe Diem, Any Given Saturday and Bluegrass Cat.
This time Pletcher has in Promise Keeper a very promising one with a good chances to take the Tampa Bay marquee race.
Hidden Stash is reunited with Rafael Bejarano who guided him to his only two wins at Keeneland and Churchill. As Steve reiterated, if he is able to change leads on cue, he will be very tough today.
Interesting to see a son of Super Saver and maternal grandson of Smart Strike named Super Strong in the race. This one has the distinction of winning a Grade 1 at 7 furlongs in his career debut last December in Puerto Rico. Tampa lead Jockey, Antonio Gallardo, is in the irons for Super Strong’s mainland debut.
After Bold Forbes no one expects a horse starting in Puerto Rico to be entering the Derby; but still, it could be a good story unwrapping there…
The Venezuelan connection of King Guillermo is looking to replicate their success last year in the Tampa Derby with King of Dreams. Venezuelan champion trainer Juan Carlos Avila had his best day ever last Saturday when winning the Grade 2 Davona Dale with Wholebodemeister at 53 to 1. Belle Laura was second in the Very One Stakes behind Godolphin’s Antoinette.
Helium is an interesting undefeated runner coming from Woodbine for Mark Casse. The son of Ironicus has been training steadily for his 3-year-old debut.
Dale Romans is persisting with Sittin on Go but this case brings up the saying that your horse is as good as his last race…!
Candy Man Rocket seems to have an upper hand but Awesome Gerry is a viable longshot as it seems to be a bias for speed at the “quirky” Tampa Bay arena today.
At any rate, with its many unknowns this is a nice race for betting purposes.
We will find out in less than three hours…!
Very nice look at the TBD, Nelson. Hidden Stash ran a good race to be 3rd in the SF Davis after a layoff of over 2 months. I expect a big effort from him today. His trainer hasn’t won a graded stakes in about 5 years, but this colt has a great chance to get her off the schneid. You’re right…a good betting race but probably won’t produce a serious Derby runner.
Thanks Eddie … I smell a nice Trifecta there…!
After looking over the “meh” entrants in the Tampa Bay Derby, I noticed a horse named Super Strong. He has no Beyer numbers on past performances, but in his first start he won a Grade 1 stakes in Puerto Rico (um, how can states have graded stakes?). Transferred to Saffie Joseph Jr., so he bears watching.
Anybody know more about him?
I have no idea of how to evaluate the PR race. A couple of weeks ago, Joseph was reported to be considering the Gotham or the FOY. Then he shows up in the TB Derby along with a stablemate. It’s a tough spot considering he’s probably running against much better runners than in the PR race, stretches out from 7f to 8.5f, and he’s not raced for 2 1/2 months. Who knows!?!?
It will be…….The Great One and Highly Motivated
With Known Agenda ranked at #4, I have elevated my top 5 horse, Rombauer to #1
ROMBAUER:
Career starts – 5
Won on debut over 8F (turf)
He is the most versatile colt on the trail. (won on Turf & Synthetic & 2nd by 3/4L on dirt in the G1 AP Stakes)
He contested the G1, BCJ after an 8F & 8 1/2F 19 days apart (insufficient rest)
He Finished 5th in the G1 BCJ from the 13th post and went 5W on final turn (victim of ground loss on speed bias surface)
Returned from 3 months plus off to win over 9F.
All his career starts have been at 8F and longer.
He is one of 3 top 5 finishers in BCJ that won next out.
Graded Stakes – G1 American Pharoah (2nd); G1 BCJ (5th)
Listed Stakes – Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes Delmar (6th by 2L -troubled trip); El Camino Real Derby (1st) (last to first)
Currently 8th on the Derby Point list just below Speilgberg whom finished ahead of by 5 1/2L in the G1 AP Stakes.
KNOWN AGENDA
Career Starts 5
Finished 2nd on debut
His two wins (MSW/Allowance Optional Claim)
Graded Stakes -(G2) Remsen 3rd; (G3) Sam Davis 5th
Listed stakes – zero
Currently 35th on the Derby Point list.
Both colts have 5 career starts. But their BOW reflects one as being more accomplished than the other. KA was very impressive in his romp in an Optional Claim. Substitute KA the 5th place finisher in the BCJ; next out winner over 9F and he would likewise romp in the modest field. If KA is so highly regarded then my boldness to elevate my top 5 Rombauer to #1, seems justified.
Mehopes you are right, is 99-1 currently on the Ky Derby futures wager, I’m not sure his kick is fast enough but I do think he is an honest racehorse, he always tries….
Welcome back, “Crossfire”! 😉 You make a reasonable case that Rombauer has accomplished more than Known Agenda. However, I assume that your ranking, like Steve’s, is for Kentucky Derby potential. If that is so, you’ve not presented much evidence to support a top ranking for Rombauer as a major Derby contender. But he’s currently 99+-1 in KDFW4, so go for it!
The San Felipe Stakes appears to be the most relevant Derby prep this weekend. It showcases four horses from Steve’s magic 12: Life is Good (4/5), The Great One (4/1), Roman Centurian (8/1) and Medina Spirit (7/2).
It is foreseeable that The Great One will not let Life is Good be precisely a relaxed pacemaker. It would be exciting to see these two great horses going after one another but this likely speed match could benefit some stalkers…
For some reason, I would like the David to win this battle against the Goliaths (i.e. the most aristocratic ones).
I hope to see John Velazquez moving methodically and purposefully with the near-black Medina Spirit and still maintain a strong enough momentum to star in yet another dogfight…!
Predicting who will prevail at the end is difficult but one thing I know is that whoever wins the San Felipe is really a sterling horse …
We need a Big 3 heading to the Derby and we should get it. By far the most compelling race of the year. If its any indication of the California horses I thought Spielberg ran a terrific race against Essential Quality after a horrendous trip
Yes … the San Felipe is like a legit Derby preamble in the West…
Spielberg despite his “peak and valleys” pattern was a good yardstick to estimate the actual quality of Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, Roman Centurian and The Great One.
To me the big three could be LiG, MS and TGO…
I’d be a little more circumspect on on drawing too many comparisons with Spielberg’s excellent performance in the mud with other Californian runners who are running on good tracks but you may be right.
I giggled a bit when I read “these two great horses” but hyperbole makes racing sizzle. Let’s hope the race is a cracking one as a prep for things to come. Looks like a jockey’s race to me. Should be fascinating.
The Great One is already great (in his name) and the Life is Good is great as well because life is great…!
Sometimes we need hyperbole to make people giggle … and to become president !
As exciting as the race should be, it will be perhaps more so in the following 24 hours to see the potentially dramatic changes in KDFW odds of the five main participants.
I’m having trouble understanding some of the Derby points allocations. We have the Gotham Stakes awarding 85 points. This is a one-turn, 1m race in early March that rarely produces ITM Derby finishers, yet it’s put on the same level as the Risen Star, FOY, San Felipe, etc. Next is the always head-scratching UAE Derby awarding 170 points, which would allow two runners (possibly even a third) to receive enough points for a leisurely jog around the CD oval. This year we have the Jeff Ruby Steaks — on the Turfway AW course — now giving the same 170 points as the big ones. Animal Kingdom notwithstanding, the Jeff Ruby is NOT the prime stakes of the Derby trail. Can someone set me straight?
No one can straghten out what is crooked and warped and unbendable. Why aare you surprised that somethng in racing makes no sense. The UAE Derby is mostly politics that I cannot explain. Why are these Polytrack non stakes in England awarded points along with the races in Japan?. Do we not have enough horses for OUR Derby that we have to make it an international race that attracts only mediocre horses abroad? Would you want to own a horse that would have made it into the Derby but didnt because of an allowance horse in England running on Polytrack? The Jeff Ruby Steaks should not get points only because of its stupid name in addition to having little bearing on the Derby. Ironically, Animal Kingdom wasnt even supposed to run in the then Jim Beam or Spiral or whatever it was called. He only ran because Team Valor’s top Derby horse didnt have enough earnngs so they ran AK instead. It’s all nuts.
I was trying to be polite. LOL. Definitely not surprised. But I am puzzled even though I realize the financial benefit of widening the interest in the Derby by foreign horsemen. There can be fairness AND profit…right? I suppose we should be comforted by the notion that the most deserving horses will get a place in the Derby gate no matter what.
Except that fillies have a real difficult time to qualify.
Well, they have as difficult a time as colts that aren’t entered in the Derby points races or that are entered but don’t do well. 😉
I heard it said they want that Japanese parimutual feed, and it only would go into effect if a Japanese horse enters the Kentucky Derby—so they are pushing for that to happen…maybe the same in Dubai? No–there is no parimutual feed out there, so go figure….
It’s definitely for the handle it generates
When Churchill Downs instituted the Point System (for 2013 “Road to the Kentucky Derby”) they announced that it was “Adopted to Maximize Fan Interest”. Fan interest is measured by handle and attendance.
The company went from 36 qualifying races in 2013, with one in England (Royal Lodge removed in 2014) to 46 in 2018 with the addition of 7 races for the Europe and 3 races for Japan. Is the increase of 40 Million Dollars in handle since 2017 most related to Japan and European money ? I don’t know…!
Attendance did not increase since then, but the Derby handle went from about $185 MM to a record $250.9 MM in 2019. So, in the mind of the managers the success criteria were met …!
The unilateral decision to move the Derby to September disrupting any other interests and the latest announcement of selling Arlington proves that CD is just about profits … no one can blame them for that.
The Kentucky Derby is publicized as an American Heritage but at the end, by means of Corporate dictums, it is the sole property of Churchill Downs LLC …
P.S. Jeff Ruby is throwing a big Steak into the sponsoring ring… but Eddie F stakes is looming in the horizon if you cash your Derby Future tickets…
you can bet that the inclusion of Japanese horses is to increase handle and I’m sure it does. But if that is CD’s priority, which it is, more power to them. Money rules.
CD a has a yen for profit.
(Be kind…it’s late!)
Yet none of that speculation explains why the races I mentioned were allotted the amount of points described. Would CD lose money if the Jeff Ruby gave 20 points to the winner instead of 100 points? And I know it’s probably just me, but when I see “Jeff Ruby” I’m thinking “Jack Ruby.”
Would a Steak & Lobster 12 oz Cold Water Lobster Tail, 8 oz Filet Mignon change your mind ?
🙂 That wouldn’t change my mind about anything, but it would certainly be enjoyable!
Steve, are you shaking your head like I am why Prevalence was included in the 23 for pool 4?
I stopped shaking my head at their decisions because it was giving me a headache. If they could include a horse who never ran and a sprinter from the Asmussen barn no one ever heard of, why be surprised when they know they can milk money from people who will bet on hyped horses. They put horses on who are out of training because they dont check with trainers first. I always give the same answer — it’s Churchill Downs.
Thanks Steve. I thought maybe a little lower, maybe wishful thinking! Is he too slow to compete with these?
Hard back from Rudy. Next stop is the Jeff Ruby at Turfway.
SH- that is how I refer to you in my notes.
SH- high on this one OR this is SH under the radar K Dby horse…
Steve you are still the best.
From your reports it would seem as if you are working as hard as ever.
No one else see or write about horse racing Nuggets like you do.
SH- the 2 guys that I admire the most in Horse Racing is Steve Christ and you.
I met Steve a few times- he gave me my NHC Prize check in Vegas when I finished
9th of 444 players in 2012- and several times at Belmont Park when he used to host the handicapping
shows before the start of the days races.
If the tracks ever open for spectators- I would love to meet you at the Big Sandy one day.
Hi Junior, thank you so much for the kind words. I really appreciate it. I am working harder than ever before on the Rankings, but enjoying it more. Congrats on your placing in the NHC. Thats not easy to do. Yes hopefully one day the world will get back to normal. Would love to meet you too
Hi Steve, Longtime follower, first time responder. Im a big fan of yours & Tarantino. What a trip he endured in the FOY! Any idea what his Thoro Graph numbers were that race? Any idea where he will race next? Florida Derby? Thanks and keep up the fine writing! JB4479
Thank you very much, John. I really appreciate it. And thank you for joining in. I have to admit I was going to mention Taarantino’s trip, but completely overlooked it when I wrote Knocking on the Door. His trip will be mentioned next week. I have a request in for his Thoro-Graph number, which shoulld be pretty good and will post it here as soon as I get it. I would imagine they will come back in the Florida Derby but I also have texted Rudy and will let you know what he says.
John, He got a 4 1/2 on Thoro-Graph, same number he got in the Holy Bull.
Hello again Steve, small but quality field in the San Felipe which only drew 7 horses. I am looking for a strong performance from Roman Centurian. The pace is likely to be hot which should enhance RC’s chances to run by them all in the stretch. Feeling good about the 41-1 that I got on RC in KDFW3.
Hey, Joe! I’m also expecting a big effort from RC. Did you notice that his workouts leading up to this race are much quicker than the workouts before the RB Lewis Stakes? I take that as a positive sign. The track handicapper shows no respect for the colt, giving RC ML odds of 8-1. It should be a humdinger!
Hey Eddie, agree that RC is coming into this sharp and ready. We both have a KDFW bet on RC at 41-1 so fingers crossed that he runs big on Saturday.
Yes, sir!
Running without Lasix has not changed the dynamics of the Derby trail… the big names are still winning big with their highly regarded horses.
There have been consistency and predictability in the preps so far and it seems like expected outcomes will continue this weekend as well.
Thus far things have gone well. As the stress of tougher competition, further distance, travel impacts on these young colts thus may not be the case. Fingers crossed.
Any thoughts on Dream Shake? I guess we will find out this weekend.
Was his the highest first start Beyer of the crop so far?
Excellent raw talent for sure and should run well in the San Felipe … a 3rd or 4th there would earn him the right to move forward (to the Santa Anita Derby perhaps).
Peter Eurton threw him in at the deep end, but, as you said, everyone needs to know where the son of Twirling Candy stands among the best of the West…
Dream Shake is the real deal, the move he displayed going 6 1/2f will be even more explosive going longer. I like the fact he will stalk and pounce from the 2 post. He will sit right behind a pretty swift pace.
I like the fact that Rosario stays aboard mean he feels like this horse is a beast!!!
If he can beat this field off one sprint then he is indeed somethng special. Cant wait for this race.
Thanks for your reply Isaac… I was about to mention Joel Rosario keeping the mount but he also wants to know how good is Dream Shake… after all, after Jackie’s Warrior pointing to the Pat Day, the hot jockey is able to choose from horses like Concert Tour, Rock Your World to Hot Rod Charlie or any other prospect that may arise in the next two months…
Steve referred to the probability that Risk Taking will have gone 9f in his final three Derby preps. Up until 10 years ago, it wasn’t uncommon to see 1 or 2, or even 3, Derby entrants that had gone 9f in their last three starts (Barbaro did it, and he won the Derby). But then…poof. That sort wasn’t seen again until 2019 when Tax did it. Perhaps Aqueduct is the only track that cards enough 9f races for 3yos through April.
Aqueuduct has one 9f stakes, but they hav the Remsen and 9f allowance for 2-year-olds. Back in the days, horses would run in the 9f Everlglades, Flamingo at hialeah, and the either remain in Florida for the Florida Derby with the 1 1/16 FOY in between or go to the Wood or Blue Grass. The Arkansas Derby and Louisiana Derby were minor stakes and never attracted any of the top Derby horses. The Wood was 2 weeks before the Derby and the Blue Grass was 9 days before the Derby. Now trainers shudder at the thought of running 3 weeks before the Derby and lean toward 4, 5, and 6 weeks. When Calumet was in their dynasty years, every one of thir Derby horses ran in the Derby Trial 4 days before the Derby and then worked a half-mile two days later.
It’s really eye-opening to understand how much the game has changed in the last 20-30 years. Could today’s thoroughbred handle schedules as you described? BTW, I think you meant to say at the top that Aqueduct has TWO 9f stakes: Withers and Wood.
Right.
30 years ago we weren’t walking down the street with the combined knowledge of all humankind in our shirt pockets! Can I sell you some encyclopedias, only $2000 for the 20 volume set!
There is a great cartoon showing a young boy with a book open with a puzzled look on his face , and his mother is saying “It’s OK you don’t need a password.”
Steve, the Hialeah Park path is sorely missed, along with the aesthetically beautiful track and, arguably, the best dirt track in the US. A real shame, if only they sold it a few years back.
Nothing excited me more in the winter than the Hialeah path to the Derby. Before you even got to the Everglades you had the 6f Hibiscus Stakes and 7f Bahamas, in which many of the top Derby horses ran.
Which races did Jim French run in? All of them. (LOL).
Yes! Lol
Same. Seattle Slew’s Flamingo Stakes was the closest a horse came to literally flying. Pure exhilaration.
4 year old Spectacular Bid run in the Santa Anita Handicap is when I saw a horse fly. In 1980 as a four-year-old, Spectacular Bid was undefeated in nine races, and was named American Horse of the Year. During his career, he broke several track records as well as the world record for 1 1/4 miles on the dirt.
As a mere infant, I saw Dr. Fager run, a win was a win. Regrettably, lacking the maturity to appreciate was you just experienced.
Watching the Hialeah winter stakes broadcasts on ABC’s Wide World of Sports in the 1950’s with Chris Schenkle was what got me hooked on horse racing as a teenager. All of the top stables on the east coast seemed to winter at Hialeah with many of the best 3 yos competing in the series of Derby Trail stakes from 6 – 9 f. I miss that beautiful shrine of racing with the flamingos. It was an impressive site for TV viewing (even in b/w).
I can’t remember why, but the struggle for prime racing dates went in Gulfstream’s favor. Thus began the demise of Hialeah.
Way too early to think this is a two colt race to the Derby–way too early to harken about past greatness—two preps in February, 1:45 and 1:44—seems like some good two-turn horses but it’s way early, some times you can’t tell until the Fall what we’ve got….
Completely agree. GH and EQ are merely the best of the East coast for now. If the last number of years have shown us anything it’s that the winner is more likely to come from the West. Expect the Baffert and O’Neill brigades to start showing up in force.
I agree, but EQ in my mind is a midwest horse with Brad Cox, GH and Shug are east coast based, not that really matters. The west coast brigade will bring a whole new challenge to EQ and GH, super excited to watch the best prep by far in the San Felipe, and how that shakes out….
I believe that Cal-based horses shipping east of the Mississippi for the final prep(s) should be considered as dual-citizenship animals. That would give the edge to the East. 😉
The east usually has the best three year olds, Bob B gets his, for sure, and it’s rare that a Chrome surfaces—but there uaually is way more good 3yo’s in the east…and I have noticed recent Gulfstream maiden winners—but THIS year—the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby—are going to be strong!
Historically east coast horses have done well. West coast has won 6 of 10 with 2 triple crown winners.
WAS American Pharoah west coast? Every race at three was run in the east….
Steve, the outcome of the highly anticipated San Felipe Stakes could have major ramifications on your leader board. Imagine a major upset in the race, like dominoes in free fall, splattering hither and yon they begin tumbling out of the Derby Rankings while at the same cementing the position of the two leading Tapit colts. It’s unlikely but you never know. Seriously though, The Great One and Roman Centurian are the two that interest me.
The Gotham Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby have been totally overshadowed by the California showdown but there are a handful of interesting runners in these races. All the colts are still just prepping at this stage so there may still be a jewel in the rough in the ‘abandoned’ eastern preps. You just never know.
Choosing between Greatest Honour and Essential Quality can wait until the 9f major preps, it’s too close to call. One hates to be overoptimistic but could this year summon up great feats of the past. Just daydreaming. Thanks again, Steve.
The Tampa Derby is looking pretty weak, but whoever win the San Felipe among the four top choices is going to turn the Big 2 into the Big 3.
Possibly the Big 5, Steve. If The Great One wires the field is he No.1? Roman Centurian appeals to me most as a 10f Classic runner but the Santa Anita Derby will validate that speculation.
Its curious how Steve’s compliments of Proxy’s maternal prowess also applies to The Great One …
I see you are a big fan of The Great One and can only imagine how you’d enjoy him winning the San Felipe.
Nyquist has proven to be a promising sire. El Corredor is not a familiar name in the Derby ecology but his dad Mr. Greeley is already a Derby damsire…!
Trivia question: Name one stallion who produced a Derby winner in his first crop?
Uncle Mo. The Great One intrigues me more than, say, as a fan but Nyquist may just follow his sire. In Steve’s first Derby Week, I wrote that the colts which interested me most this year were Greatest Honour, Essential Quality, Likeable, and Proxy. I can’t split the first two, Likeable is a sprinter, and Proxy is progressing slowly.
There are a couple in the Gotham and the Tampa Bay Derby that could suddenly come alive but that’s being generous. Greatest Honour has the dream pedigree, Best in Show’s family.
That’s right … if Nyquist wins the Derby with The Great One it will be the first time the same line produces two Derby winners in their first crop…
I believe Gallant Fox, Maria’s Mon and Bodemeister are the other stallions with a Derby winner in their first crop.
El Corredor has a great female lineage! I believe very close to Souvaneer Copy and Roman Ruler….
He was a decent sire during his days in Kentucky. In New York he was leading sire by Stakes and by turf winners. El Corredor produced 4 champions among his 43 black-type winners.
Remember Dominican who defeated Street Sense in the Blue Grass … they finished the last furlong in 11 2/5 over the Keeneland synthetic surface.
As a broodmare sire El Corredor got 21 black-type winners including a very good 3-year-old in Japan last year named Danon Pharaoh…
Those three I mentioned I am interested more as broodmare sires, not sires…because of their female lineages…
El Corredor has kind of slipped thru the cracks as a sire influence…but he also slipped thru the cracks as a racehorse—he was capable–and he was fast.
It’s stunning to think that one of those top 4 will finish no better than fourth.
I recall reading that Brad Cox and Godolphin are considering the Blue Grass, the Arkansas Derby, AND the Florida Derby as the possible final prep. The latter is unlikely, but wouldn’t that be an amazing “prep”?
The Blue Grass Stakes appears the more likely for Essential Quality but both Brad Cox and Bob Baffert have multiple runners so a ‘surprise’ in the Florida Derby wouldn’t be a shock. All this depending on what happens this weekend.
Obviously, staying out of the path of Greatest Honour and Essential Quality would be prudent by any trainer needing points to get in the Derby. The San Felipe result will have major ramifications on various levels.
Right! The path of least resistance is prudent. I agree that the BGS is likely. Fla Derby — Greatest Honour will be there. Arkansas Derby — Why race 3 weeks before the KD if you don’t have to? BGS — He’s two for two there!
By now two Eskimos are the only people who don’t know that EddieF bet Greatest Honour, Mandaloun and Roman Centurian in prior Derby Future wagers at 40 to 1 … but they will hear his screams in the North Pole if any of the trio should win the Derby.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 4 opens Friday. The Great One, Roman Centurian are 50-1, Risk Taking and Medina Spirit show 30-1 in the Morning Line. There is no Pletcher horse within the 23 individual selections.
Interesting additions are Proxy, Rombauer and Collaborate.
Any of The Great One, Roman Centurian and Medina Spirit could be closing at lower odds after the San Felipe.
They must have read my comment on Proxy. Lol.
Your argument in favor of using blinkers was so convincing that I wanted to try them … on my self… LOL
How do you correct perfection?
I need blinkers to keep me focused on my Software Development Studies here and control the fever of constantly reading every single paragraph from Steve Haskin section at Secretariat.com … including the brilliant comments of all his loyal followers…
Sorry, but until May 2, you may not focus on anything but the Kentucky Derby trail and the Run for the Roses.
BTW, have I mentioned that I bet three horses in …. oh, never mind.
I hear you.
Hopefully, Johnny V stays on board as well to complete the education.
If he wins the San Felipe for Baffert I’m sure you can kiss Johnny V goodbye as far as riding another horse, at least for a while.
Any chance that Johnny V move his tack to the West
Coast? He was a complete Joy to watch on Authentic and Gamine last season. He’s an unbelievable rider.
True but the timing of the Louisiana Derby is open for Johnny V to ride Proxy.
Who? Me????? LOL
You know the old joke about the refrigerator salesman who sells the appliance for $1 million? Guy says to him, “That’s ridiculous!” Salesman says, “Maybe, but I need to sell just ONE.”
Soup and Sandwich! What’s next, Shave and a Haircut? (2 bits). I watched his replays, wow, who wouldn’t want that kind!
Speed ratings aside….I remember Beyer thinking Zenyatta wasn’t fast enough….he went by figures, not the way she covered ground….Greatest Honour passes the eye test about how he covers ground—maybe speed handicappers will leave him alone…(hehe)….
I totally agree and remember
that well.
I am happy to see Greatest Honour in first. I loved his performance on Saturday.
Even though it did look like he was stuck and going nowhere for a bit, he
was able to overcome a bad start, traffic, and running wide to win. He just gobbled
up the track with his big stride. So, he can come from behind rapidly, which was
impressive. I know closers don’t usually win the Derby but I am sure they will try
and have him more forwardly placed. Needless to say, I thought his Beyer figure was
way too low. It sounds like he will face Collaborate in the Fla. Derby.
Essential Quality also ran superbly. He kept an improved Spielberg from running him
down and just kept going in the slop. He certainly could be #1 too. They are pretty much
interchangeable. He lived up to his reputation and then some.
Life is Good will be the big story one way or another this coming weekend and if Baffert says
he is the real deal, I believe it. Can’t wait to see him run.
I also like Caddo River, Roman Centurion and Mandaloun.
Hi Paula I hope you are well. The turn of foot that Greatest Honour showed was simply amazing. He came flying like a Rear Jet. I just hope he doesn’t regress. Essential Quality was obviously the best horse but I am not sure if he really beat anything.
I did bet Spielberg in the race as I liked what I saw in his previous 2 races but apparently he is only #4 in Baffert’s barn.
If Life Is Good is as good as advertised then this edition of the Derby could shape up to be one of the better ones.
I agree about Caddo River, he has been my top pick since January but I am not sure he wants 10 furlongs. We will soon see.
My issue with most of this 3 year old crop is that they are mostly all lightly raced. As Steve says, maybe this is the new normal.
Take care Paula, nice to hear from you………. 🙂
Hey, Deacon! GH just had his regression. 🙂 He’ll be better in the Florida Derby, and I expect him to be much closer to the lead by the stretch call.
If you like more experienced runners over the lightly raced variety, you’ll have Greatest Honour, The Great One, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Proxy, Keepmeinmind, Caddo River, and Overtook with 6 or 7 races going into the Derby.
Deacon, so good to hear from you too!! I agree on all points. They are lightly raced. I couldn’t
believe the way Greatest Honour just came out and flew by the field. It was incredible. My jaw
dropped and I was screaming at the t.v. for him to win. I am also
worried about regression and peaking too soon but I know Shug will do his best to keep him tuned up.
The Fla. Derby will tell us a lot. I think there will be some good ones sent there to challenge him.
Greatest Honour only really put out for 1/4 mile, he has run two turn races but is fresh! He has enough points, now Shug is in the driver’s seat!
Paula, in the Florida Derby Greatest Honour has the chance to unleash his natural abilities. This could be fun!! Easily the most exciting colt at this stage if not the most professional. Essential Quality will be extremely hard to beat.
Have you heard anything from Windolin of late?
Davids, I have not. I am thinking she just decided not to post anymore. I believe she has said
things along those lines in the past. She was a wonderful voice and fan of horses and
horse racing. A lovely person. Agree on your point above. EQ in the Derby is better in terms of racing
style to win but I do love Greatest Honour. The way he won was simply thrilling. Hope he gets a better
start out of the gate and trip. EQ showed he can race in the mud and he was very, very impressive. If Life
is Good is as exciting as Bob Baffert says he is, this is going to be a great Derby. Then we have Caddo
River and the others.
Paula, Windolin being one I miss a lot of our past contributors. Maybe some them don’t know where Steve has landed.
It really is a shame though.
Thanks Paula. Windolin was always so passionate about the horses she loved. Just the pure admiration for the thoroughbred, along with the other favorite breeds she adored. Her aim was to bring racing back to Georgia. I hope she does one day.
Hi Steve,
Again, you’ve provided us with some good in-depth news and evaluations on this year’s Derby contenders. I was slow to embrace this year’s group of 3 yos, but thanks to you, I’m starting to get excited about the upcoming races leading to the Derby.
When discussing Essential Quality, you observed that he continues to “paddle his left front leg”. I’ve watched the replay of the Southwest and can’t detect what you mean by that. Of course, it’s probably just me, as I have trouble detecting when a
horse changes leads. Just what does the term “paddle” mean?
Thanks Dewey. Watching from the side it just looks like he’s racing wide in front, but if you watch the head-on you can plainly see his left leg goes to the left instead of coming straight down. It is a defect in the stride that normally does not effect a horse, but many times it does in the long run. Perfect case is Vekoma who had the worst paddle I ever saw. It was almost disturbing to watch. But he went on to win big races, alathought he never made it past the Met Mile when he looked to be on his way to a sure Eclipse Award. EQ doesnt have a terrible paddle but it is quite noticeable, even from the side.
Steve, thanks for the feedback. Very enlightening, as I learned something new, after all these years, about paddling. I went back and watched the replay again and looked for EQ’s paddle. I see what you mean with that left leg stride. You’re right, it doesn’t look severe so I’m hoping he can get through his 3 yo campaign w/o any problems. Thanks again, you would have made a great teacher but I’m glad you stuck with writing. In any event, we get the best of both worlds from the incomparable Steve Haskin.
Thanks Dewey. I think I would have made a great teacher. Too bad I was such a rotten student.
Vekoma’s paddling was disturbing to see. I point people who don’t know how to spot paddling to the broadcast recording of his Met Mile gallop out. You are a good teacher.
I’d be more concerned about Life is Good’s head carriage than Essential Quality’s minor paddle. After all, if it were of any significance Essential Quality wouldn’t be the 2 year old champion nor undefeated this year.
Mr. Prospector was regarded as having one progeny who had perfect conformation – Prospectors Delite. Most racehorses don’t have perfect conformation.
just finished your analysis Steve and great as always. I did bet Roman Centurian in pool 3 and also in the Robert Lewis, he did get the photo for place over Hot Rod Charlie. If this was already pointed out I apologize.
Thanks David, I fixed it. Brain fart. Lol
Don’t exactly know why but for some reason this year’s top contenders remind me of the year of Majestic Prince, Dike and Top Knight
Sheila, which colt reminds you of Majestic Prince? I’m speculating it’s Essential Quality.
How can you leave out Arts and Letters? Lol. He went on to Horse of the Year and the Hall of Fame. Right now those horses were better than these horses. But we’ll see how it goes from here.
Hi Steve: I wrote you a while back about being a bartender at Saratoga and our Secretariat similarities. So glad the Derby Dozen is alive and kicking! I love the pedigree stuff on the contenders, and I had lots of success with Dosage when stamina, rather than speed/athleticism, really mattered. I think the points system is good, but it has eliminated the sprint types who used to insure a fast pace and allowed horses like Authentic, Always Dreaming, etc. to succeed. You know what I mean — I miss Shecky Greene!
buzzatoga
Shecky insured that fast pace, but now that 20 is the norm, pace should always be strong….I didn’t like those sprinters in the race, giving their owners a vanity entry, really, get to lead in the Derby….if you look at recent winners, who were close to the pace you will see that they were also the best horse in the race….
Amen on the sprints being ruined by the points system. I’ve been preaching that for years. We have turned the Derby into a front runners race. Btw, what exactly are our Secretariat similarities? I’m not even a chestnut. Lol
Drugs from certain trainer/trainers have created front runners winning 99% of big races.
Interesting point, I’ve been watching to see how the medication free preps impact certain stables.
Will this be the year that the winner of the Derby breaks the recent hex on last-race losers, higher-odds runners, and closers? (Sept. 2020 Derby not considered; the 1st-place finisher in 2019 considered as winner)
Since 2012, Derby winners won at least the last two prep races.
Since 2013, Derby winners went to post at odds of 5-1 or lower.
Since 2014, Derby winners were 1st, 2nd, or 3rd after a half mile.
Bets on the 2021 Derby?
__ Winner lost one of his last two races
__ Winner went off at odds of 6-1 or higher
__ Winner was not 1st, 2nd, or 3rd after a half mile
After 1/2 mile I’ll bet this year the winner is not in top three after 1/ mile.
2
Yeah, that’s the most likely of the three. Unless Baffert wins again!
What were the Thoro-Graph numbers on GH and EQ? Beyer keeps GH at 89 which I take or leave, as there was not one other 2 turn dirt race that day. Also, half of that race is run on the turns so a true number is near impossible in my opinion. EQ got a big number running a second slower and putting away a sprinter. I don’t get the Beyer formula.
Brisnet, which I like better, gave him a 97. Thoro-Graph wont be in until Wednesday or early Thursday. GH wont get as fast a number as he did in the Holy Bull which is actually good. because he ran too fast for January in the Holy Bull.
Agree on Brisnet, just hadn’t seen the number yet. Beyer was on Steve Byk show and admittedly said they came up with the number for the FOY and could have done another 2-3 points but history of Gulfstream 1 1/16 races is what they use. Confirmed why Bris and Thoro figs are much more reliable
So GH scores a 97, and EQ gets a 98. Both are in good shape for their final preps. Known Agenda earned a 94; Soup and Sandwich a 90.
Yes they are. Which brings me back to the arbitrary Beyer numbers, being a wider gap, yet Andy admits they “gave a bump” after the initial fig came back Saturday night.
You have me so intrigued with Soup and Sandwich! Definitely a horse for my watchlist. I really appreciate that you bring to the forefront horses some of us casual watchers would never even know about if it wasn’t for you!
He does have to improve a lot off his Thoro-Graph numbers but as I said he is still clueless and has a lot growth for improvement once he gets his head straightened out
Did Midnight Bourbon do something to merit a time out?
Scroll down and read my comment at 3;20 pm
Easier said than done, but thanks, gotcha. BTW, I like the technological development of imbedding the comment sumissions box into each thread.
Excellent analysis and insights, Steve. At first glance I thought that this was one of the deepest 12 (at the beginning of March) in many years of your rankings. Then I looked back at the Derby Dozen archives and confirmed it! This is a fine group with loads of potential. If I had a ranking, the only big disagreement would be Known Agenda. I might not even have him in the top 12. I understand he beat Greatest Honour in a MSW, but he hasn’t wowed in a stakes. That would be a requirement in my estimation to rank him high.
So…I do have Roman Centurian in the FW3, plus Greatest Honour and Mandaloun in FW2 — all at about 40-1. What do you think of my chances? 🙂
Thanks. Blinkers and Lasix, especially blinkers, have been known to improve horses dramatically. If a horse wakes up with blinkers you can usually forget about his prior races. I am counting on the blinkers turning him around. I dont expect anyone to have in their Top 12. I just liked him before the Tampa race so I will give him another chance with the blinkers. He probably is ranked too high, but after the top 3 I’m not overwhelmed by anyone.
I think youo have excellent chances with all three. If you can get past the San Felipe you will be in great shape with RC.
Thanks, Steve. It’s going to be a heckuva ride!
As always Steve excellent & knowledgeable assessments. Greatest Honour just blew me away with that turn of foot.
I can only believe that the 10 furlongs will be to liking even more. The 3 year old horses that usually do well at Gulfstream usually contend in the Triple Crown. Although Essential Quality looked magnificent winning in the slop at Oaklawn Park , we will see how this measures up to the Derby. I did like Spielberg’s 2nd place finish. I thought he improved a lot off of his 4th place finish in the Lewis Stakes. I have him on my list of horses to watch.
Can’t wait for Life is Good & Caddo River to get back on the track and run. Jackie’s Warrior does not look like a 10 furlong horse so he has been removed from Derby consideration for me.
Thanks for another great Derby Rankings………
I appreciate it Deacon. Thank you. San Felipe will solifify everything. We will have a major star from California, Florida, and Louisiana/Arkansas on a collision course
The horse I was most impressed with last week was Known Agenda. That performance seemed to come out of nowhere. Perhaps if I had re-discovered Steve Haskin earlier I would have seen his high opinion of Todd’s horse. I’ll be interested to see what his fig comes back at. With probably the best turn time around two turns this year and by Curlin he is for real. Thought the FOY was a relatively slow race so interested to see the figs.
He ran back to his victory over Greatest Honour last year. His Thoro-Graph numbers havent been fast but I am expectingg a pretty good jump in ths race. Th talent has been there but his head wasnt.
Midnight Bourbon didnt work until this morning, and went 5 furlongs in 1:00 3/5. He’s become an under the radar horse, but he’s still talented. I wlll catch up on him with this work next week,
Currently he has six starts at a mile or a mile plus and has never been off the board. His dam has produced three other half sibling colts all of which rate as significant runners. He also seems atypical of those Derby contender colts sired by TIZ NOW in the past. Physically he’s a bit lighter, athletic and angular than those before. He’s more in the form of TIZ NOW himself with markings evident to match. Genuine applies to his case and as you mention, being under the radar on the way to the big gate at Churchill is perfect his price.
He’s extremely consistent but just needs a little more oomph in the stretch. But the Tiznows do improve late.
With the lately developing in mind, I hope Tizamagician will at least run in the money in the Big ‘Cap at Santa Anita.
Great update by Steve regarding John Velazquez riding Medina Spirit in the San Felipe. Nice to see Baffert’s team trying to replicate Authentic’s success with the Hall of Famer Jockey.
BTW, JV guided Protonico to his only Grade 2 win in an electrifying finish in the 2015 Alysheba Stakes at Churchill.
I believe the son of Protonico is so talented and gritty that he will be entering the top five in Steve’s ranking after the San Felipe …
Steve, so many juicy nuggets in this one — I’ve spent the last couple of hours just researching some of the Knocking horses. Just love the NAME Soup and Sandwich — puts me in mind of that favorite ham sandwich of mine, Silver Charm. S&S has run some fast numbers, too. Loved the performances of Essential Quality and Greatest Honour this weekend. Couldn’t decide which I like best, so they are tied for #1 on my personal top 20. This is going to be a hot and heavy week!
How can you not love a horse named Soup and Sandwich. Lol
As the Cowardly Lion put it, Impoceros!
There was a filly a few years back that raced in Florida named Fish and Chips.
Dog N Suds ( Dog Breath ) never made it to the races.
😮 Perhaps it’s for the best!
What I saw that impressed me in the FOY was from about the eight pole home, the extension in the stride of Greatest Honor. Really reaching. When he levels out he can eat up the ground. Glad I found you Steve. Missed your insights.
I’m glad you did, too, J.W. Welcome and hope to see you back here.
Hello Steve, agree with your comments about Roman Centurian. I am glad to have bet him in KDFW3. I bet him to win and boxed him with the field and your #1 GH. He keeps improving and looks ready to roll in the San Felipe. As long as he finishes strong and keeps collecting those derby points he should be fine. As you said, the longer the better for RC. He should shine in the SA Derby and KY Derby with the longer distances.
As I said last week, if you offered me one ticket for a potential overlay it would him at 41-1. And he doesnt have to win on Saturday
Steve:
Really appreciate your detailed analysis: It is the high-point of the week on a Monday! I agree re Roman Centurion: I was lucky enough to get him at 50-1 off-shore a few weeks ago: I don’t think I have ever more looked forward to the San Felipe!!
Thank you very much and good luck with your ticket. If he can get by this weekend and still be in the Derby picture thn you’ll be in ggood shape.
Spot on for the most part Steve – I believe Candyman should be in but you have a few that you are expecting big races from based on their workouts so I see your reasoning behind them !!
Can’t wait to see the HOF’ers y’all vote in !!!!!
Thanks, Luke. I just need to see him close better than he did in the Sam Davis. They were really tiring in the last furlong. It was his first two turn race so the Davis should help him.
The general consensus is that closers don’t do well in the Derby and they don’t do well at Gulfstream Park. However, closers trained by Shug McGaughey (namely Orb and Greatest Honor) have the potential to do well at either track. What a great pedigree; but it’s his dam by Street Cry who gives him that great turn of foot. Street Cry was in the pedigree of what of the best closers on the track: Zenyatta. And two Derby winners (one disqualified) have Street Cry’s genes: Street Sense and Maximum Security.
He was more than just in her pedigree. Closers dont always win the Derby but there is almost always a closer in the money. In the past it was the speed horses who never won the Derby. Every year is different.
Twenty horse fields usually have a lively pace—whether closers or front runners or stalkers–usually win the Derby—what is fairly amazing to me is…considering the field size–which is usually 20 runners…is how often the Kentucky Derby has been won by the best horse.
And another great closer few here saw in person unless you travel a lot or live “down under” – Street Cry is the sire of Winx as well as the afore mentioned Zenyatta.
I honestly thought that Greatest Honour was a no show in the Fountain of Youth then, boom, from seemingly out of nowhere he’d taken the lead and powered away from a horse still running pretty well. My conclusion? Greatest Honour is a beast.
I’m looking forward to checking out Steve’s new shooters, in particularly Nicky the Vest because of his strong distance pedigree. I’m still leery of the brilliant Into Mischiefs’ ability to get 10f.
Finally, best news this week is that Prevalence worked and apparently, looked good doing it. I realize he is behind the 8-ball, but of all the impressive performances I’ve seen, his still stands out in my mind.
I’m also high on Prevalence, but the clock is ticking and I’m not sure that he can get in two more races before the Derby. Then, there is the matter of points (he has “0” none). His connections are not the type to rush him just to make the Derby, so we’ll have to hope that when he does race next, that he’ll be ready to give his best. He was a sight to behold when he broke his maiden. We may never see
7-1 again on this dude.
Actually, Prevalence is owned by Godolfin, right? I seem to remember in the 1990’s…the year of Point Given–I read about Godolfin having the Kentucky derby as their objective, and they had an exact duplicate of Churchill Downs’s surface made so that their horses could get used to it—I think they are going to try to get him in the May 1st starting gate….
Their objective back then was to win the Derby with a horse trained in Dubai. Now they’ll take anything
As in so many other things in life, Godolphin will probably find success once they stop trying so hard.
Remember he is owned by Godolphin who owns Essential Quality and Proxy so they already have two legitinate Derby contnders. They dont need to rush this horse.
Which may be a blessing in disguise, but I sure wish his schedule had worked out for a Derby start.
Love Greatest honeur and deserves to be in the top for sure but i have a hard time backing a dead closer in the derby. So much can go wrong. TALENT IS THERE IN BUCKETS
I guarantee you he will be a lot closer in the Derby. As I said, I believe this was a duller race than he ran in the Holy Bull and that was just what he needed because no one, not even Shug, expected him to do what he did in the Holy Bull and his Thoro-Graph number was too fast for January. He’s just so good that he was able to win this race despite a slight regression. I think we will see that in his Thoro-Graph number as long as he didnt regress too much.
The Derby preps last week validated the stances of Essential Quality and Greatest Honour as the top contenders for the Roses. They have been so consistent and dominating that we got the feeling they would never fall short …
What could be scarier than these two horses who make very good horses look ordinary.
After seeing the disappointing sophomore debuts of Vequist and Fire at Will one can appreciate even more the meaning of the transition in form from 2 to 3 year-old shift.
The fact that, out of the last ten 2-year-old champions, only three were able to win their 3-year-old debut and noting that those three were American Pharoah, Nyquist and, now, Essential Quality feed the optimism around the Gray son of Tapit.
Essential Quality’s consistency and class light the hopes of Godolphin, of Brad Cox, of Luis Saez and Tapit for their very first Derby.
It would be a good story if Luis Saez is able to scrub down the gloomy spirits of the 2019 demotion.
I hear ya on Luis Saez. He took a gut punch when taken down in the ’19 Derby, but he handled it with class while accepting his fate.
Luis is a good fit for EQ. He has a versatile horse who can run on any track and be placed anywhere in the race before making his move. I’m rooting for this team for sure.
My only concern is Brad Cox…. he’s a nervous wreck (after every big race he exhales with a “whew” glad that’s over.) Brad’s stable is loaded this year and he is spread thin trying to attend to all of his stable’s stars. I know he’s got a good staff to help him, but at the end of the day, Brad has to carry the burden if anything goes wrong. His plate is definitely full and then some.
Yes Dewey ! you are right about Cox being anxious before his big horses have to go out and be at their best. So many things could go wrong in horse racing that one can understand the concerns…
Running on sloppy tracks brings a lot of worries and the challenge of a champion reappearing compounds the anxiety as well.
But I believe this tension is normal when competing at the highest level in any sport and, as you said, the team has channeled that nervous energy rather well so far.
You’re right, Nelson. I recognize that it’s normal to feel tension when you feel pressure to do right by the class type of horses that Brad has in his care. I do feel empathy when I see the stress that he is under and have all the more respect for what he and his crew have accomplished.
Who said this game was easy, right?
Luis Saez had more suspension dates that all of the other riders in the 2019 Derby combined—he’s riding with a loose rein, on a horse that does not want other horses to pass him—watch a greyhound race, the dogs are constantly cutting others off—by choice—and will—-Saez let his horse wander and he jumps a water puddle—THEN Saez gets him back and sees Code of Honor and he pulls him hard left, nearly throwing Code over the rail….I find it amazingly coincidental that the rider with all of that stewards time logged in just “happened” to be the guy whose horse was all over the track—
That said, I still thought the DQ was a wrong decision….the Kentucky Derby is NOT a Thursday afternoon claiming race, and it has always been judged differently that other races, face it there are horses getting fouled every year in the Derby—and for another rider to file the claim, I mean, just for THAT the stewards should have not allowed it–they shouldn’t even had let Prat ATTEMPT to call foul—on behalf of another horse….the DQ was political, Racing was going thru some bad publicity and they had a tough decision to make—were there fouls? Sure there were, there are fouls every year.
I am with you Mathew about the decision being more political than fair to the best horse of the day.
However, I also agreed with Bill Mott when asked about Saez conduct…
The New York Times reported on May 13, 2019 the following:
“Bill Mott, the trainer of Country House, said after the race and reiterated in a recent interview that it was a “young, green” Maximum Security who veered off course because of the puddle and crowd noise and that Saez did a good job of reasserting control.
“I don’t think he did anything wrong,” Mott said.” ”
My point with the last statement of the post comes about because I suddenly remembered the face of Luis Saez on the brink of weeping when after 22 agonizing minutes his horse was just deleted from history…
Watching his face I started to hear the “… Weep no more, my lady
Oh, weep no more, today….” in my head.
Bill Mott is a kind man, not the type to gloat when his horse has won by dq. IMO, Saez did plenty wrong as validated that in addition to the dq, he was given days.
I don’t know how many Derbys you’ve seen, Robin, but Matthew is right, because of the large Derby fields, there are fouls committed every year. The bad press on horseracing put a lot of pressure on the stewards to oversee a “clean” race in 2019.
As for Luis Saez, yes he gets more than his share of “days” for racing infractions. But, he is in the top 5 annually of jockeys who ride a high volume of mounts. The point being that if a rider accepts a lot of rides then the risk of committing a foul increases. I’ve yet to hear another jockey call Luis a dangerous rider. And, let’s be real, I’m sure that he wouldn’t be trusted by the best trainers and owners to ride their prime runners if he was regarded as a reckless rider. As a horse player, I’ll take an aggressive strong jockey any day when placing a bet.
And I have benefitted from Mr Saez’s riding talents, also…..I have taken much grief for stating my dislike of the great Pat Valenzuela’s ability to “ride multiple horse in a race”, but he did, and it messed up other horse’s chances, and sometimes caused big problems….the stewards met with the jockeys before the race and emphasized the importance of a clean race—in that 2019 Derby….maybe Mott was right about Luis Saez being innocent of careless riding, maybe he was being a gracious winner….and maybe it was coincidental that the jockey had received so many suspensions. Maybe.
Nelson, I’m not sure if you have watched the Melbourne Cup and Golden Slipper in the 70s, 80s but jockeys used to take ridiculous, dangerous risks to win these races due to the fabulous prize money that was on offer.
However, from the 90s onwards the stewards started to punish jockey infractions with serious suspensions. In last year’s Melbourne Cup, jockey Kerrin McEvoy, for breaching whip rules in the closing stages of the Melbourne Cup on runner-up Tiger Moth, was fined $50,000 and suspended for 13 meetings. McEvoy’s monetary gain from the race was $55,000. Subsequently, a net loss for the infraction.
In Europe and Australia, racing have modified the rules to coincide with societal norms of the times with the result that the sport was on a growth spurt prior to the pandemic. The Churchill Downs stewards should be congratulated on trying to improve the image of the Kentucky Derby and grow the sport.
Thanks for your reply Davids… very enlightening as usual.
I made my self a rule of not being controversial or/and polemic under Steve Haskin umbrella but I respectfully do not see how the Stewards are improving the image of the Derby or growing the sport by disqualifying a horse who “veered off course because of the puddle and crowd noise”… yes this was an accident and as such the pilot should be penalized despite no apparent malicious intent on his part.
However, Again, I just wanted to highlight that Luis Saez might be able to close that wound with Essential Quality… nothing less nothing more.
Apparently the disqualification is still a hot and very contentious subject … and I simply do not want to get burned by it… as you know I am not guarded by anonymity or pseudonymity.
Nelson, I should have been more clearer. I was referring more generally on how stewards in other countries are much harsher with jockey infractions than in the US. Not specifically about the 2019 Kentucky Derby controversy. For years, the Kentucky Derby has been run like a rough ‘n’ tumble wild west show where the horse with least trouble in the race often wins. If the stewards are more stringent on the rules and implement harsher penalties in the future then, perhaps, the Kentucky Derby will be improved for the general public/punters alike.
The Melbourne Cup and the Golden Slipper used to be outrageously bad races full of deliberate misdemeanours by the jockeys in an attempt to win the big prize money. However, through consistent, draconian rulings on what is allowed and expected the races have improved out of sight. Fairness to all.
I don’t know if disqualifying the co favorite and putting up a boxcar longshot attracted new fans, there were a lot more new fans that lost on Max than won on Country House…Horse Racing, on Derby Day, 2019….survived being nuked—there would have been 10 horses falling over fallen horses….
Agree, which to this day, I think COH should have been placed first. He lost all momentum around the 1/4 pole 3/16 pole and was passed by Country House, due to this. No way that horse loses 2nd place with a clean run. Country House had a clean run.
The top four horses at this point I think can walk into, err run into that Winner’s Circle at this point. While I usually have an East Coast-West Coast horse, and I think the last few years the West Coast horses have obviously been stronger candidates to win the Derby- i.e. Pharoah, Chrome, Nyquist, Justify, Authentic… these 3 East Coast horses are going to be a challenge for Life is Good, but I agree he moves flawlessly. I was surprised to see that extra boost and just drive to win by Greatest Honour Saturday, I will think the Florida Derby he will put on a Show or he’s going to take a step back only in where he finishes but not a detriment to his Derby chances. Risk Taking, I think is my Derby East Coast horse, I have a strong affection for MDO progeny, and he is a throw back horse, like Swiss Skydiver, put him on the track and if he doesn’t win, it’s a fluke, he figures the race out, and with Chad Brown, I don’t think he enters horses unless they are strong candidates to win, I think Chad likes getting his picture taken, too. lol). As for Life’s Good other than Medina Spirit, I don’t see as much talent for him to match up too, I think he will meet his equals in Louisville, but only a silly person counts any horse out Bob Baffert trains.
Call me Crazy, but my take on Life is Good, after this weekend results, has only gotten stronger. Pace makes the race, and LIG will control the KD from the outset. I think EQ has already peaked with his numbers, and Florida horses seem slower at this point. LIG may be exposed this weekend, but at this stage looks to have a real edge.
But i do rate GH over EQ in my mind as GH seems to have a big upside that Shug will bring out over longer distances. Steve, will GH have the acceleration to stay close enough to LIG? But, I would have never thought that Mishriff would have layed that close to Charlatan so…..
Greatest Honor was so, so impressive. Can hardly wait to see him go longer.
Right? His pedigree SCREAMS BELMONT!
Thank you, Steve, for another interesting read about all the Derby hopefuls. So far I like Greatest Honour and Proxy best out of your top twelve, and I’ll be looking forward to the upcoming races to see how Keepmeinmind and Rombauer perform, my other two of great interest horses do far. Rock Your World and Candy Man Rocket are two others who O find will likely improve. I appreciate your take on the unknown, to me, Soup and Sandwich, and I’ll have to put a couple bucks on that one when next he runs just to see what happens. I’ll look forward to others’ comments here, and to your continuing analysis each week! Thanks!
Thank you, Sally. Happy to get your input. Keep ’em coming.
Rock Your World won a Stakes on Saturday on the turf at SA…..like a boss he woke up in the stretch
I wrote all about that race.
It seems like there are plenty of good two turn types this year–early yet, I know, but it just has the feel of a good crop, and we can sure use one, by the way the Santa Anita racing sec said dream Shake is a go for the San Felipe, too—remember Dream Shake, and his, what…98 Beyer? I’ll be betting on Roman Centurian this Sat, with a small saver on Medina Spirit—there might be middle movers against the pace of Life is Good, and the Roman might just love that!
Really looking forward to that race.