Derby Rankings: Week 8
We’ve cut the Rankings down to a bonus baker’s dozen this week for reasons you will read in Knocking of the Door, and it was extremely difficult to separate the top five horses, making this one of the biggest crap shoots we’ve seen in years with still more questions than answers. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Mar. 7, 2022 – Week 8
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
I could have easily replaced him with Simplification, but it’s difficult dropping a horse after seven weeks as No. 1 and I’m just not quite ready to do that. He is still coming out of the best prep of the year and it’s not easy making your first start of the year at 1 1/8 miles and with so little foundation. He is still on course, so before becoming a prisoner of the moment I am going to stand pat and let this past weekend’s races sink in a little more. There isn’t a lot more to say about him that we haven’t said already, so let’s provide a little back story and see if he gave any signs of what was to come when he was a baby. His breeder Xavier Moreau said he was born just a few stalls down from the stall where Barbaro was born. Maybe that will prove to be a lucky barn. He could see a few days after he was born how balanced and correct he was and how smart he was with a beautiful eye and head. He had a great mind and just did everything they asked of him. He had so much appeal a group of Irish pinhookers offered to buy him two weeks before the sale, but Moreau turned down their offer. When he did sell, Moreau said he was like an old show horse and he was “so proud of him,” how well he stood and walked. Adrian Regan of Hunter Valley Farm, who then pinhooked him as a yearling, said he was a beautiful colt, who was extremely smart and did everything perfectly, and he remembers how much he loved his work and was always aggressive on the track. Well, it seems not much has changed. He still seems very intelligent and professional and loves to run and compete. So that is a little background so you can get to know him. His first race this year will serve as a good learning experience, hopefully for his jockey as well, and he will be ready for a big effort in the Bluegrass Stakes.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
The same goes for this colt. I’m keeping him here for now because I don’t think any less of him. Being we’re devoting space this week to backgrounds I will add Zandon, who also is being pointed for the Bluegrass Stakes. It was veteran bloodstock agent Mike Ryan who picked him out at the Keeneland September yearling sale for $170,000 for owner Jeff Drown. Ryan had looked at him on the farm a few weeks before the sale and loved what he saw, which was “a big, strong colt and very impressive looking with a great head and eye (sound familiar?). He also felt he was a “quality colt who had a lot of presence and was a good mover.” After seeing again at the sale and still loving everything about him he called Jeff Drown and told him how much he liked the colt and wanted to buy him. Although he had already spent a lot of money for Drown it was decided to go ahead and buy him. He has been impressed with what he’s seen so far. “He ate a lot of dirt in his first start and had his head turned sideways,” he said. “There was no wasted action and he had excellent knee action and was a very efficient mover. I thought he looked magnificent and he seems to have a bright future.” Airdrie Stud’s Brereton Jones bred his dam and second dam and stands his sire and broodmare sire. “Zandon was a beautiful colt as a yearling,” said Brereton Jones’ son Bret who plays a major role in the operation and bred last year’s top-class sprinter Bell’s the One. “We lost (his second dam) Incarnate Memories this year, but fortunately we kept (Zandon’s dam). He first caught our attention when he worked in company with a son of Curlin and ran off and left him” I know how much Brown loved this colt from day one and I will trust his judgment.
3—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
I have liked this colt since the Mucho Macho Man and said I considered him more of a Derby horse after his Holy Bull defeat than I did before because it showed he was able to use adversity to expose a new dimension to him. Well, as it turned out, rather than go back to his old normal style of running he changed his m.o. completely and used that new dimension to easily win the Fountain of Youth Stakes. When was the last time you saw horse win on the lead in :45 4/5 and 1:09 4/5 and then rally from seventh to win off fractions of :48 1/5 and 1:12. He certainly is worthy of the No. 1 spot and may wind up there soon, but the only reason he isn’t there just yet is that with the scratch of top contenders Mo Donegal and Giant Game, High Oak and Galt falling at the top of the stretch, Rattle N Roll never being a factor, Emmanuel having a terrible trip, and an 87-1 sprinter with two career starts finishing third, there is the question of what he beat. He had won a listed stakes and was a troubled second in a graded stakes, while the second, third, and fourth-place finishers had never even run in a stakes. This is not to take away from his performance, which definitely stamps him as a serious Derby horse. But like Smile Happy and Zandon he still has to turn the tables on the horse (White Abarrio) who beat him easily in his last start. And as he did in the Holy Bull he failed to change leads again and will have to work on that. But the bottom line is that you rarely see a horse with his early speed not only turn into a closer but one who looked like he’s been doing it all his life. And you had to be impressed with the way he swung six-wide turning for home and just swept by everyone and quickly opened up on the field. As I said, any one of the top 5 could be No. 1. But for now I will let it all soak in.
4—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
I have to admit I could be making a mistake not having him No. 1 because of his natural speed and closing power and how easily he won the Risen Star, and I fully expect him to win the Louisiana Derby the same way. But with a rocket ship like Forbidden Kingdom now firmly on the Derby trail with the ability to run any horse in the country off his feet early, it is time for Epicenter to show he can come from the off the pace and not be one-dimensional. If Forbidden Kingdom makes it to the Derby there is no one who is going to outrun him. So if Epicenter can sit behind a horse in the Louisiana Derby and win the same way he did in the Risen Star, coming home that fast, then he would be a legitimate Derby favorite because I already I know he can get a mile and a quarter, as I explained in last week’s comments. So in short, I just want to see him display some versatility as Simplification has done. He checks off all the other boxes. Now, if Forbidden Kingdom does not make it to Churchill Downs then it’s a different story because if any horse can wire the Derby field it is him. But it’s always good to have another weapon just in case he needs it, and with Forbidden Kingdom now in the picture he will need it.
5—Morello (Steve Asmussen, Classic Empire – Stop the Wedding, by Congrats)
I put him below Epicenter only because Epicenter runs two weeks earlier, which will give me a clearer picture. It’s pretty much a dead-heat right now for No. 4 and close to a five-horse dead-heat for No. 1. He still has a big test to pass going two turns for the first time in the Wood Memorial against far more seasoned and talented horses, but I have been raving about this colt every week since the Jimmy Winkfield and to be honest, while all the top horses look like potential stars he is the one horse I have seen who has exhibited all the signs of a superstar. I thought he could be special after the Winkfield and now after the Gotham I am convinced of it. He is so professional and brilliant and so machine-like you can’t tell one of his races from the other. In three starts he has drawn off from his opponents with a remarkable surge of power and he has yet to feel the whip. When a horse does what he does all on his own without being asked that is a rare quality. He also is a horse who exudes a great deal of class before, during, and after a race. He just needs to face better quality horses going two turns. His pedigree says distance not only will be no problem, he should get better the farther he goes. Toby Sheets, who has had him from the beginning felt he was special last summer, but a minor setback prevented from starting until late November. I mentioned that his Thoro-Graph numbers leaped from a “7” to a “1 ¾” in the Winkfield, making him already one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the country. I can’t wait to see what he gets in the Gotham. To pair up that number would be perfect.
6—White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
Even though Simplification lost all chance at the start of the Holy Bull, his emphatic victory in the Fountain of Youth has to flatter this colt, who beat Simplification with the same authority the Fountain of Youth winner beat his opponents on Saturday. Ironically, both races sort of fell apart due to scratches, bad trips, or top horses not firing. So who knows if we got a true gauge of the competition? All we can go by is what we saw and both colts certainly passed the eye test. The main question with him is how far he wants to go. That’s not to say he can’t go a mile and a quarter, but his pedigree doesn’t shout distance. We know he has speed in the morning with his :47 flat and :59 2/5 works before the Holy Bull. Because he was skipping the Fountain of Youth to go directly to the Florida Derby, he returned to the work tab a couple of weeks after the Holy Bull with an easy three-furlong breeze and now we’ll see how he picks up the pace getting ready to go a mile and an eighth.
7—Secret Oath (D. Wayne Lukas, Arrogate – Absenthe Minded, by Quiet American)
It was obvious she would get a much better Thoro-Graph number than the Rebel winner, but I had no idea the difference would be this huge. The Rebel looked to be a slow race and it certainly was for the ground-saving winner Un Ojo, who a got a “7.” Secret Oath not only far surpassed the Rebel she now has the most impressive pattern of any 3-year-old, male or female. When she jumped from a “9 ¼” and a “9 ½” to a “3 ¾”in an allowance romp on December 31 it was important to see if she could move forward off that. When she jumped to a sensational “1 ½” in her runaway Martha Washington score on January 29 she was in danger of peaking too early in the year. She was already in Kentucky Derby range, so it would be understandable if she regressed a little off that. But when she paired up that number with another “1 ½” in the Honeybee it confirmed that she is indeed that fast and now ready to improve off that. It was the second-fastest Thoro-Graph number by any 3-year-old behind the “1” run by Messier in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but she has paired up her number while Messier needed more time to recover from his effort and skipped the San Felipe. So what all that means is that she is the only 3-year-old in the country numbers-wise who is Derby ready. Just a slight improvement would win many Derbys.
8—Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
Don’t blame him for being overhyped all year and overbet in the Fountain of Youth Stakes off a maiden and allowance win against far less talented horses. And certainly don’t blame him for his fourth-place finish, in which he actually showed, at least to me, he was a serious Derby horse. Drawing post 8 didn’t do him any good, neither did get getting hammered at the start by A.P.’s Secret who broke out into him, causing him to drop back and not be able to use his early speed. Then he got stuck in traffic and was four-wide going into the first turn, while the winner saved ground with a perfect rail trip, as did the runner-up In Due Time. He came out of the turn back in eighth six-wide and remained way out in the middle of the track down the backstretch. Passing the half-mile pole he unleashed a big five-wide sweeping move to reach contention and continued five-wide around the turn when Simplification, who had moved to the outside, stormed up outside him. Emmanuel was starting to tire a bit and Simplification had all the momentum as he charged by him turning for home. He then had to alter course outside Simplification when the winner came in and took his path away. He then got shoved around by Dean Delivers, who he was battling with for second inside the sixteenth pole, and finally was passed by the ground-saving In Due Time and then nailed on the wire for third by the surprising O Captain. This was certainly an excellent learning experience and should really toughen him up for his all-important final prep. He showed a whole new dimension and proved he wasn’t just a horse who can win on an easy uncontested lead. Yes, he got a little tired, as to be expected considering all his travails, but let’s just say the boy turned into a man.
9—In Due Time (Kelly Breen, Not This Time – Sweet Sweet Annie, by Curlin)
This was a big step up from his impressive allowance victory and he showed that performance was legitimate by coming on strong to get second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. I didn’t rank him higher than Emmanuel because he had a far better trip and I expect Emmanuel to get a faster Thoro-Graph number. But that still doesn’t diminish his performance in his first two-turn race and facing top-class stakes horses for the fist time. And he is one horse you know is going to keep improving the farther he goes. You can be sure he is going to be tough to beat next time out going a mile and an eighth. After jumping from an “8 ¾” to a “3” Thoro-Graph number in his last start it will be interesting to see if or how much he improved off that. Although he did save ground it was good to see him go between horses and come home strong. He has a big easy stride that covers a lot of ground with seemingly little effort and that also will work in his favor.
10—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
I love the way Lynch gave him strong long works for the Sam F. Davis Stakes and now has him sharp for Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby with a :59 4/5 final work. With a series of “5” Thoro-Graph numbers this is his big opportunity to finally take a jump forward and put down a number that is at least competitive with the top horses. I like the fact that he was able to battle through quick fractions an and come home strong, but like some of the others we really don’t know what he beat in the Sam Davis and he no doubt will face some tougher horses on Saturday. It is important for a horse to show that he made the transition from 2 to 3, which he did. Unlike most of the others, he is on a three-prep schedule, which is getting to be a forgotten plan to get to the Derby. Lynch has been old school all the way – not afraid to work them long and not afraid to run. Now let’s just see him improve on those Thoro-Graph numbers.
11—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
Whether it was a low-grade fever or drawing the 12 post, scratching out of the Fountain of Youth wasn’t a catastrophe, but it’s not what you want to see. He still is on a decent schedule for the Kentucky Derby, but the fact is he now is on a two-prep schedule instead of a three-prep schedule, which Pletcher was planning on. So in that respect he has had to resort to plan B. There is very little I can say about him until he runs in the Wood Memorial. All we can go by is the fact that he is battle-tested, consistent, and is always closing in the stretch. For now we just have to wait for him to get back on the work tab and see how he progresses there. The Wood is still a long way off and he will have to go into the race off a nine-week layoff, which obviously is not ideal.
12—Rattle N Roll (Kenny McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
You didn’t expect me to dump him off one race, as dull as it looked, did you? I said all along I didn’t like this spot for him, especially on this track with the short stretch. This is a big galloping type of horse who needs to get fit by racing and his style does not fit Gulfstream at all. McPeek wasn’t crazy about this spot either and could have run him a week later at Tampa, but he liked the timing of this race better to set him up for the real test in the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles with that long stretch. He doesn’t even need to win that, only to run a strong second to Epicenter, because he will move forward again at Churchill Downs. The bottom line is he was down on the inside with that big stride of his and never got out and was beaten 7 ¼ lengths, which is hardly insurmountable. This colt is reminiscent in many ways of another McPeek horse, Tejano Run, who also won the Breeders’ Futurity and started off his 3-year-old campaign with a dull fifth-place finish, beaten over 10 lengths, in the Risen Star at 1-2. But he also needed racing, and after then finishing second in the Jim Beam Stakes and third in the Blue Grass Stakes he was a fast-closing second in the Kentucky Derby. McPeek said Rattle N Roll ate up great Sunday morning and he is not discouraged in the slightest. He expects a big turnaround at Fair Grounds, so I will let everything play out before giving up on him.
13—Forbidden Kingdom (Dick Mandella, American Pharoah – Just Louise, by Five Star Day)
I guess this looks to be a low ranking off his “workout” in the San Felipe Stakes, but I still don’t see him as a Derby type horse. He was 10 times faster than anyone else is this small overmatched field, which had accomplished nothing. So, sure he was able to blow them away from the start and simply outsprint them, running them into the ground with fractions of :45 4/5 an 1:10 2/5, while opening a seven or eight-length lead, and then crawling home under no pressure in :26 2/5 and :07, winning by 5 ¾ lengths in what was the easiest Grade 2 win we’ve seen in quite a while. He can win the Derby like that if he’s Spend A Buck, but that seems unlikely. Don’t get me wrong, this is a brilliant talented colt that any trainer would love to have, but it’s a long stretch to a mile and a quarter with his style of running and we first have to see what he does against Messier in the Santa Anita Derby. I have no idea who else is out there to run against them. Perhaps he will turn it into a match race and again just blast out of gate and play catch me if you can. Doppelganger gave him a bit of a run in the stretch to slightly narrow his margin of victory, but I would think that performance could set him up well for the Arkansas Derby. If any trainer can stretch this colt out it is Mandella, but the Kentucky Derby is another matter.
14—Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Smitten, by Tapit)
It doesn’t happen often heading into mid-March, but I am actually looking forward to a maiden race more than the Tampa Bay Derby on the same card. I loved his five-furlong work Saturday in 1:00 4/5, indicating he is sharp and ready for the most important maiden race of the year. If he can’t beat Tampa maidens then how is he going to do against serious Derby contenders in their final prep? But Pletcher certainly doesn’t want him going into the Derby as a maiden. Not only is he supposed to win Saturday’s race he is supposed to win it pretty impressively. Now we just have to see who and how many they get to run against him. He was my first Derby sleeper after his career debut, so he caught my eye from day one. If it wasn’t for the slight bone bruising that has sidelined him since his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile I firmly believe he would have been no worse than second in that race. All we can do now is see how he bounces back off the layoff.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Derby Rankings typically features four more horses than the original Derby Dozen of past years. And we extended it to 20 last week, which I felt was too many and diluted the Rankings, so a bonus baker’s dozen seems appropriate this week rather than try to rank an ever-extending group of horses who all look pretty much alike. Proven Breeders’ Cup horses GIANT GAME and PAPPACAP are looking to rebound off disappointing efforts, even if Giant Game did have a legitimate excuse, displacing his palate and losing his air. We’ll likely see him in the Tampa Bay Derby after scratching out of the Fountain of Youth. And I can barely remember CALL ME MIDNIGHT’S nose victory in the Lecomte Stakes it was so long ago. And the rest to me are inseparable, needing to move forward off good, but not great performances. In that group are PIONEER OF MEDINA, UN OJO, ETHEREAL ROAD, BARBER ROAD, the surprising O CAPTAIN, and DEAN’S LIST, who looks like a one-turn horse. And what to you do about the unfortunate Bill Mott pair of HIGH OAK and GALT, who thankfully escaped injury in the Fountain of Youth. Despite coming off a six-month layoff, High Oak was loaded throughout the race and despite racing wide was right up there with a cluster of horses vying for the lead at the head of the stretch when A.P.s Secret tried to squeeze his way through and came out in front of him, causing him to clip heels and go down hard. Stablemate GALT, rallying from last, had to avoid the fallen horse and threw his rider Joel Rosario. Fortunately he and Junior Alvarado seemed to escape serious injury. If both horses are able to bounce back from this they will be dangerous, especially High Oak, who was running a huge race at the time.
So how do you take just those 11 horses and place them is some kind of order? And who do you leave out of the top 20? I did rank Ethereal Road ahead of Un Ojo and Barber Road last week because of his wide trip in the Rebel, while they both saved ground all the way. As it turned out, Un Ojo and Barber Road got mediocre at best Thoro-Graph numbers of “7” and “7 ¼”, respectively, while Ethereal Road got a respectable “4,” which was a big improvement from his “9” the race before, That is a huge difference between horses who virtually finished on the line together. So you can consider Ethereal Road in the top 16.
TIZ THE BOMB returned on the Turfway Polytrack and scored a solid victory in the John Battaglia, despite racing wide the whole way. If he can repeat in the Jeff Ruby Steaks we’ll see what Kenny McPeek decides to do with him.
Out of sheer desperation and a deep respect for the talents of MESSIER I contacted one of his owners who I know and asked him for a simple yes or a no off the record if I should put the colt in my Rankings. As expected I got no response, so it is just wait and see from now on.
Last year’s Iroquois winner MAJOR GENERAL had his final tune-up for the Tampa Bay Derby, breezing five furlongs in 1:02 1/5. SLOW DOWN ANDY returned to the work tab Sunday with a solid :48 3/5 half-mile drill. I would think Doug O’Neill will give him another shot in the Santa Anita Derby, as he certainly didn’t run his race in the Risen Star when he was pulling hard early.
As of today, 3-13, my top ten KD contenders are as follows.
1) Simplification
2) Epicenter
3) Classic Causeway
4) White Abarrio
5) Smile Happy
6) Morello
7) In Due Time
8) Zandon
9) Forbidden Kingdom
10) Rattle N Roll
On a side note, I’m hoping D. Wayne Lukas will change his mind and not run Secret Oath against the boys in the Ark. Derby. Why take a chance that she might over-extend herself and sustain an injury? Keep her with fillies.
Aaarrrggggh! Internet went out just about the time Greatest Honour went to the post yesterday, thanks to the big East Coast “storm” which actually wasn’t much of a storm where I live. (I’d grumble about my cable service, but all of you suffer from similar fates I’m sure). So a day late, I discovered Classic Causeway won the TB Derby in modest time, earned an 84 Beyer, but may in fact go for a THIRD prep in the Blue Grass — mostly thanks to all of you posting here! Thanks so much for the intel. I have a feeling he may perform better than the Beyers suggest. Hoping my post actually posts.
“America’s Day at the Races” on YouTube and the commentary is excellent.
Thanks, Davids — We seem to be fully back in business this morning, just in time for work!
The Derby & Oaks Future Wagers closed. The Derby pool was about $284,000 and The Oaks Pool was less than a quarter of that at about $64,000. #24 All Others once again was the Favorite in The Derby Pool @ 4-1. I wonder who they are betting? The BB horses? There have been a few good looking Maiden winners and a couple of 2-time winners lately. Anyway, Smile Happy went off at 6-1 again. So, Mac can keep those commercials going. Classic Causeway seems too low at only 10-1. But, he’s the flavor of the week after yesterday’s big win. Forbidden Kingdom took plenty of “action” at 7-1. That also seems awfully low 8 weeks out from race day.
Zulu Echo closed as the 5-2 Favorite in The Oaks Pool even though she has yet to race this year. She has been working out and seems to be nearing a race. Secret Oath took some late money to end up at 7-2. Risky for 2 reasons: She might try The Derby instead and can she transfer her Oaklawn form to Churchill? #24 All Others was at 6-1. Again, I wonder who they are betting? BB horses? Kathleen O, after her big win at Gulfstream on Fountain of Youth Day, ended up at only 9-1. Wouldn’t it be great to see Shug McGaughey win The Kentucky Oaks? She definitely has her supporters. I’d like to hear the story of that name. If she makes it to The Oaks, I’m sure we’ll get the story. I know that there is a very highly respected trainer named Kathleen O’Connell. But, then the question is: If the owners are such big fans, why didn’t they give her the horse?
My top 6 today are Smile Happy, Simplification, White Abarrio, Classic Causeway, Epicenter, and Zandon. Messier’s owners can make the trainer change, I assume, just before entries for one of the final preps. I expect that to happen, barring a case of temporary insanity.
I like your Derby half dozen … the Blue Grass will be very telling if Classic Causeway shows there to get even against Smile Happy. It appears that the expected pace would favor the beautiful chestnut again.
Imagine if CDI decides to deny Messier any qualifying points because the trainer change was done at “the last minute”… not sure if there are rules about deadlines for transferring horses but a month before the Derby looks like a prudent window to do it.
Then it would be a similar situation as War Emblem’s but in reverse…!
Thanks, Nelson. The Blue Grass has the makings of a solid race for a change.. Zandon is possible, too. I can’t find the official CD statement about the points situation. But it will go smoothly, I’m sure. LOL
BTW Messier worked today 5F in 59.40 handily Santa Anita ranking 1/61.
#1 Morello…..#2 Smile Happy….#3 Zandon for me …
I like Morello a bunch. But he needs to prove himself around two turns in the Wood. He’ll need to deal with Mo Donegal.
Four Derby Futures plays……#1 Morello (16-1) my biggest wager……#2 “All Others” (6-1) right now that’s a good price!….#3 Zandon (30-1) is a good price on a good horse…..#4 Cyberknife (50-1) just think this colt has talent…..on the bubble is Mo Donegal (23-1) has done nothing wrong and only had a fever, and his odds went up.
The BAD prices are Forbidden Kingdom (5-1) and Classic Causeway (8-1).
The way I look at the KDFW nearly 2 months out is that I’d need AT LEAST 20-1 on the top current contenders. So among those you mention, Mo D is borderline and Zandon is good. Cyberknife? Maybe 52-1. 😉
This is one of those years where the preps haven’t told us much, but I believe the next round—the final preps–are going to clear things up, as far as the contenders go…..I expect Smile Happy runs a big one, and becomes Derby favorite…….
I think that every year the last two preps in combination tell us nearly all we need to know. This year is no different.
It’s different for me…..by now I usually have a pretty good grasp on thongs, right now I like Morello, and everything else is in flux.
Haha have at it!…..
I had a pretty good grasp on a few of those myself in better days.
I think that Commandperformance might be dropping off Steve Haskin’s new list. I could be wrong. He really disappointed at 1-9 in a Maiden race full of “sketchy” rivals. Even in a comeback race, he should have been able to crush that crew. To me, he doesn’t seem to be able to quicken. I’m no expert, but, his conformation doesn’t look like a mile and a quarter horse to me. He looked kind of “thick”. More like a sprinter or miler. Maybe he’ll work himself into shape with another prep. But, I won’t be betting on it. Owner Mike Repole sounded very disappointed after the race. He said that he saw no excuse.
Speaking of a good looking horse: Did anyone see Chad Brown’s Gia Romantica win a Maiden Race on debut at Tampa? What a beauty! When I saw her on the track, I knew that she was the winner. Unfortunately, I’d already bet on another horse. It looks like in this case, it was a million dollars well spent. With Chad Brown, you can’t really go by workout times. You need to look at the pattern of works instead. He gets them ready off of 4-furlong works.
Commandperformance is no longer a Derby thought in my mind. That was embarrassing for the connections. They screwed up.
These layoffs seem to be more harming than I remember… Rattle N Roll, Commandperformance and Major General seem to be needing much more time to regain proper form after.
You say they screwed up because the Gray is still a maiden and they must now be bolder to try Stakes again?
*after very disappointing 3-year-debuts (from 5, 4 and 7 months hiatus respectively)
Major General’s performance reminded me of the notorious performance of Life at Ten to a lesser degree.
You mean when Life at Ten did not finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff?
Did you notice something amiss during Major General’s warm up?
The excuse is that the son of Constitution stumbled at the start… but never got in touch with the field. I hope he is OK.
I actually missed the warm up and introduction of the horses but during the race the way Major General dropped out so quickly seemed odd. It could have been anything but it did remind me of the way Life at Ten just trotted around the track.
I’ve saved a lot of money by passing on the layoff horses, including my numero uno Smile Happy.
Regarding Commandperformance, I think he needed to go through conditions. There was plenty of time. But they went in another direction and didn’t stick to the plan.
There are rumors out there that Classic Causeway earned only an 84 BSF for his romp in yesterday’s Tampa Bay Derby. If that is true, he regressed from the 88 that he was assigned for his win in The Sam F Davis. Not good. I know that Steve Haskin will give us the lowdown in his new list on Monday or Tuesday. Maybe Mr. Haskin will even come up with the “Sheets#”. Even if Classic Causeway is beating up on over-matched foes, you want to see him moving forward and not backwards. I would expect that a horse will need to run somewhere between a 102-110 BSF to win The Kentucky Derby. Unless it’s a poor crop of 3 year-olds like California Chrome was able to beat with a 97 BSF. No offense. The last thing that I need is a bunch of “Chromies” coming after me.
Trainer Brian Lynch said that he was thinking of The Bluegrass as the next race for Classic Causeway. Maybe some better opponents can make him run faster. Maybe. I like that he’s using 3 preps to get ready for his Derby run. I also like that he’s won every time that he didn’t have to break from a disastrous post position. I love this horse. He’s a real beauty. I want him to succeed. But, as of right now, I have to agree with Matthew. I like some other horses a little bit better for The Derby. Subject to change. If he runs a 94-98 BSF in The Bluegrass and beats some better horses, I could jump right back on his bandwagon. BTW, Lynch mentioned The Bluegrass right after the race without having time to think about it. So, that could change.
I am liking this colt and the way his trainer is taking his Derby path. Could this be trainer instructions to the jockey tactics as well? Get the win without burning out the colt? He’s got the points now. I didn’t think the half in that race was blazing fast. The track was listed as good. Not a bad pedigree at all. They got the win and came home safe and sound.
As for the class of the others how do you really tell when they don’t race like they used to 30 years ago? Morning works help but still what happens on the track is what counts. When it comes to the Derby none of them will ever race in a field that large again. Back when Mine That Bird ran in the Derby everybody dismissed him and looked what happened. Not saying that is going to happen this year either. Could be some of these long shots winning are better then they are getting credit for.
I don’t look at BSFs. But CC had a 99 Brisnet fig in the Sam Davis, so I’ll be interested in seeing his number when published on Tuesday. The track was listed as “good,” and was described as deep and tiring. CC can have a regression (he did win, after all) and run big in his final prep. Not to mention that speed figures are just one element of a comprehensive analysis. Oops…I mentioned it!
Hi EddieF. You read my mind … I was about to post the same ideas. He was expected to regress after a fantastic 3-year-old debut.
Suffices to see how easy the son of Giant’s Causeway is winning at Tampa, how energetic he looked after the races and most importantly Irad Ortiz’s assessment of the horse potential… we can say all the fields are overmatched but I say the any field would look feeble when you have such willing runner.
Classic Causeway is a text book example of handicapping by observing performance more than by depending on the stony speed figures and other mathematical metrics.
I would like to see the flashy chestnut promoted to top 5 … but, then again, he is apparently “slow” according to some devious speed figures…
Hey, Nelson. Thanks for the supporting argument. I think that Steve will have CC at #6 or 7.
As you hinted, I also believe Classic Causeway will be finally convincing every one if he were to run in the Blue Grass… Exciting horse indeed…!
You are probably right about his new ranking… it would depend on how Steve measures Secret Oath, White Abarrio and Morello against the last great son of Giant’s Causeway.
When did wins in restricted Grade 2 races crown racehorses as ‘great.’ Ha ha
I should have explained better … great compared to the last sons of Giant’s Causeway on the dirt. One can say that Bricks and Mortars and United were great but on the turf. To me CC is ‘greater’ than Brody’s Cause, Destin and Mr. Big News… My opinion is that Classic Causeway is considerably above the normal or average sons of his sire on dirt…
Anyways, You know how much I love hyperboles … cannot hide my vein of publicist ! LOL
“Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some hire public relations officers.”
Daniel J. Boorstin
All good, Nelson. With racing it’s often hard to control your emotions.
Steve always has something to surprise us. 🙂
Really? I will be surprised if CC is still even on the list. It sounded to me like Steve was really looking for an improvement in the speed figures, although he goes by Thorographs more, so I guess we’ll have to wait to find out what those were.
He’s on!
Watched all the preps and most potential KD entrees, Messier is the best 3 year old at this junction. Lukas entering the Filly in the fray due to weak results by others and more than likely Baffert horses out. Fascinated that basically not one owner is moving their horses from bafferts barn. Also, heard his barn is reloading with 2 year olds…
Same old agenda ‘Jeff’. lol
I hope this isn”t true…
@TheRacingBiz
·
Lukas: Secret Oath much more likely for Preakness than Kentucky Derby
In the event Zandon secures enough points, (in the Blue Grass), to make the KD starting gate, I’m wondering if Jose Ortiz will remain loyal to Chad Brown and ride Zandon in the KD. Or will he opt to ride Simplification, who is rapidly become one to the top KD contenders. Ortiz rode Simplification to perfection in the FOY. Now, if he can only get him to change to the correct lead in the stretch run, that would check another box in his impressive arsenal.
Needless to say, a lot can change in the next couple of months, but I’m hopeful Jose commits to Simplification as his KD mount. Stay tuned for the decision.
According to 1JoeP, on the previous page, Zandon now has the services of Flavien Prat for the Blue Grass Stakes. So, it follows that if ‘they’ are successful in the Blue Grass Stakes, Prat will probably stay on Zandon for the Kentucky Derby.
Remember, Prat is moving to New York, so, winning the Kentucky Derby for Brown would be very advantageous for him. Ha ha
Zandon at 35-1 is worth a shot, Cyberknife at 50-1 also, and I made a bigger wager on Morello at 16-1……
Claddic Causeway is down to 8-1 now, I don’t think he will hit the board, the Derby won’t allow him an easy pace, today the pace pretty much stayed the same, not likely in Louisville.
No, Classic Causeway looks like a one-trick pony to me. 8-1, seriously?
Now that Classic Causeway and Simplification have made the KD starting gate, my exacta wager in KD Futures Wager Pool 2 is looking pretty good. I boxed CC, at 52-1 with Simplification, at 44-1 which would return $5,290.00 if CC came in 1st, and Simplification finished 2nd. If the order of finish were reversed, the payoff would be $4,580.00.
I’d feel even better if Simplification wins the Florida Derby, just to show he’s a legitimate KD contender.
I’ve got Simplification boxed with the entire Pool 2 field, in 23 exacta wagers, which includes Holy Bull winner, White Abarrio, at 171-1. The payoff for that: $9,099.00 or $7,183.00. 🙂
I hope that owner of Classic Causeway wears that same Jed Clampett hat to The Derby. The Blue-Bloods in Louisville will love it. Another nice win. The competition only gets tougher from here. Trainer Brian Lynch said he’s thinking of The Bluegrass as a next step towards The Derby. Those 100-pointers should be more competitive. Classic Causeway has his points. The pressure will be on everyone else.
Yeah Tommy that hat is about as old as he is! :0 Hey if it brings him luck then more power to him, keep waring it all the way to the Derby!
Nice call on that observation TommyMC… Now some Bob B blue lens in a set of granny’s old glasses to finish a speed on the lead look. ” The first thing you know old Jed’s a millionaire (again).”
Racing fillies against top colts, on dirt, has always been a concern of mine. Hopefully, Secret Oath doesn’t over-extend herself against the boys in the Arkansas Derby and comes out of the race in good order.
Classic Causeway easy—-does not look like Kentucky Derby winner, to me, easy winner but horses rarely get such a trip in Louisville, I don’t think anybody from Tampa hits the board in Louisville
Come on, he’s 3. He’s improving. Some demand 2 much/2 soon.
I didn’t say CC is not a nice colt….I re-read my post it says I don’t think he or anyone from the race are the Derby winner….he won easy, on the pace, beat a horse with Beyer top of 71….my 4-horse tri box WON…..I just don’t think we saw the Derby winner today—-unless we’re talking about the colt who ran as fast as Ce Ce did at Oaklawn….
CC ran well.
That’s my view as well Matthew. I just haven’t been impressed enough by Classic Causeway. Forbidden Kingdom, as an example, will rocket past him at the start and then what for Classic Causeway?
When it comes to the KD a lot depends on the post draw. You get a full field and a bad draw it makes a difference. You can run out of racing room real quick in that race. Having a jockey that has been there before as well helps. Still have more prep races to go before that day.
Yes Laura, I like everything about the Kentucky Derby except the race itself. I understand the betting angle but it’s the US’s most prestigious race surely it deserves to be run with a 10 to 12 field where everyone has a chance and moreover, they all deserve to be there.
Have you watched CC out of the gate in his last two races? It’s like he’s shot from a cannon. That will be essential in a 20-horse field. His gate ability is his best weapon.
I totally agree with your observation EddieF.
Not only how fast Classic Causeway is breaking but it is also too effortlessly … that puts him ahead of other speedy horses in the Derby.
His pedigree suggest that he would love the Classic distance as well… can’t wait for the Blue Grass.
Good that you have mentioned pedigree, Nelson. Over the past nine runnings of the Tampa Bay Derby, 3 Tapit colts and now 3 Giant’s Causeway colts have won the Tampa Bay Derby. That’s an amazing win percentage for just 2 sires. However, none, thus far, have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby as yet.
Perhaps, the Tapit & Giant’s Causeway colts have a predilection to running well on the Tampa surface. Coincidence? May be or may be not? I’ve always be circumspect when it comes to Tampa Bay success – what happens in Tampa Bay, often stays in Tampa Bay.
Good luck with Classic Causeway.
Great observations Davids about the affinity of Giant’s Causeway and Tapit sons to Tampa surface and also about the weight of that path on Derby outcomes.
The reason I am expanding on Classic Causeway is that his success at Tampa is being diminished due to ‘slow” speed ratings. I believe he had won without firing on all cylinders and that his next race would confirm it or refute it.
Also, I consider his pedigree among the best for the 1 1/4 distance. Since his debut at Saratoga in 82 3/5 I had him in my watch list.
The same way you are wary about Tampa Bay success I am about the way the speed ratings are computed there… I am a sucker for white-blazed chestnuts and perhaps my “eye test” is subjective because of that.
I also need good luck with the drama involving Messier…
There is a positive with the Giant’s Causeway & Tapit colts that have won the Tampa Bay Derby quite a few have gone on to run extremely well in the Belmont Stakes. Something to keep in mind.
We all have our favorites and quirks in selecting winners. Good luck with Classic Causeway, though. I fear there are too many ‘wanting the lead’ types that they’ll end up defeating each other early in the Kentucky Derby.
With Messier, just wait and see. If he’s good enough to be in the Kentucky Derby he’ll be in it. Just pretend he’s trained by ‘whoever’ until he is. Ha ha
As expected Classic Causeway amazing in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is already in … five speedsters out of six qualified horses so far.
Un Ojo and now Grantham confirming the worth of the Withers Stakes …!
I was much more impressed with We the People at Oaklawn Park than Classic Causeway at Tampa Bay but We the People hasn’t any points as yet.
The way things are going, he could qualify with a fourth-place finish in one of the final preps. 🙂
If We the People ran fourth in the Arkansas Derby surely they would skip the Kentucky Derby. An impressive win or second is required to go forward. There are other races.
I was mostly joking, Davids. And just about getting into the gate. Points not earned by BB horses will result in a low number for the final spot in the gate.
I realize you were being facetious but I was being deadly serious. Unless We the People wins the Arkansas Derby for fun why ruin an inexperienced but exciting colt by throwing him into a 20 field dogfight.
Justify II
Rodolphe Brisset IS NOT Bob Baffert in preparing horses.
Who won’t be impressed by the son of Constitution clocking almost the same time as Champion Ce Ce winning the Azeri Stakes.
I would take him to the Arkansas Derby at once…!
That Derby, ok, but the Kentucky Derby is something completely different.
CC for home run!
Wire to wire.
SECRET OATH confirmed to the Arkansas Derby
Ehtereal Road to the Blue Grass per Gary Stevens
Yep, just was informed. Wow, you go girl.
The Coach decided to separate Ethereal Road from Secret Oath in the Derby trail.
Just heard the news on America’s Day at the Races. Can’t say I’m surprised. It’s Lucas, after all.
Never liked him.
Like CC and Ship.
Shipsational and Giant Game look like contenders, but Classic Causeway with a speed advantage is not vulnerable enough for me to bet against.
Steve Haskin-
Hello. Good rundown of KD contenders for Derby Rankings Week 8. Bet on Tampa Bay Derby #6 Golden Glider $10 WPS
at 12-1. Have a betting interest in same horse for KD 2022 Future Book. Horse has off track racing potential so hoped for
muddy track today at TB. Not sure I’m going to get the extreme sloppy and wet conditions. Colt has 2 doses of Blushing Groom, 4S x 4D. Also, made a second bet Saturday at Fair Grounds Race 8. Taylor Secret #10 at 30-1, $10 WPS, Vancouver – Gypsy Sage by Hennessey. 5 1/2 Furlongs on grass. May like the stretch out to 1 mile. Good luck with your wagers.
7.5 Furlongs
Maybe Commandperformance doesn’t have the ability to quicken. Maybe Coldfacts was right when he labeled him as “slow”. If I see him run another race like that, I’ll label him a “plodder”. No offense. Whatever, he may be looking for a new rider if he presses on to The Derby.
RE: Race #6, at Tampa Bay Downs
Gina Romantica sold for $1,025,000.00 at auction. She’s entered in referenced race which is set to go off in about 10 minutes. Let’s see what a cool million can buy you for a filly.
BTW, Commandperformance remains a maiden.
A very impressive closing effort by Gina Romantica.
Commandperformance a dull 2nd, bore out down backstretch….hung like a Van Gogh down the lane…..
Davids (totally off topic) do you have plans to attend the races in Betoota (in the Outback in Queensland)? Looks like great fun!
Sorry Lynda, no. Covid is out of control here after the Federal & State governments decided to ‘let it rip’ with disastrous results. I’m fully vaccinated but it’s not worth the risk.
Davids, sorry to hear that. Maybe next year?
Not to discourage you but one can be vaccinated and still get Covid. Not sure if I mentioned it but my husband got the Omicron variant the week before New Years. He went to the ER on NYE. We were both in quarantine for ten days. Luckily I did not get Omicron, but if I did, had no symptoms. He was not hospitalized, just took cough drops and used a product called Mucinex for the symptoms.
Thanks for the information, Lynda. Where I’m living a lady in another apartment, thankfully in another block (Art Deco), contracted Covid just last Tuesday so the anxiety here is quite high.
Another woman in the apartment directly above the Covid infected lady has just tested positive – fortunately, I have a private entrance and back door so I feel reasonable secure.
No Derby Points races next Saturday. We’ll have to wait until March 26th for The Louisiana Derby and The UAE Derby in Dubai. Those races will be the first of the 100-pointers. The Sunland Derby is a day later on Sunday, March 27th. It’s only a 50-pointer.
Money Supply and Strike Hard have been scratched from The Tampa Bay Derby. Still no word on the turf races. I live about 30-35 miles North of Tampa Bay Downs. A thunder storm came through between 7:30am and 9am. It was really pouring for about an hour. Now, it’s mostly windy and still cloudy. When I look West towards The Gulf of Mexico, it looks pretty bright. I’m hopeful that the dirt races will be OK. I’m sure that they sealed the track. But, the turf is a whole other story. We’ll see.
Oaklawn Park, this Saturday Race 4. We the People. Should We the People perform outstandingly in this race will he be given an opportunity to run in the Kentucky Derby?
The answer was an outstanding- yes!! Goodbye Commandperformance, and hello, We the People. We the People looks like a serious contender for sure.
It looks like Zandon will have his fourth Jockey from as many starts when he heads to the Bluegrass on 4-9. Flavian Pratt will be his newest jockey in the Bluegrass. Maybe this will be good timing for Prat because Zandon coukd be the KY Derby favorite if he wins the Bluegrass which will also include his rematch with Smile Happy. Zandon is my 56-1 horse from KDFW1. Three straight races at 1 1/8 for Zandon when he runs in the Bluegrass. I watched the replay when his father Upstart won the Holy Bull at 1 1/16 strongly and was striding out powerfully at the wire. Watching the replay reminded me of Zandon galloping out strong in the Remsen. Looks to me that Zandon will enjoy the derby distance.
Good news for Zandon. The gifted Prat should be perfect.
Bill Mott sends out Happy Boy Rocket in The Tampa Bay Derby. I see Super Saver in the pedigree and have to think that he might enjoy an “off track”. After last week’s horrible incident in The Fountain of Youth, Mott probably deserves some good Karma.
Grantham, Happy Boy Rocket, Classic Causeway, Shipsational trifecta box cost $12.
37-1 in the middle I was surprised it didn’t pay more than it did….
Props for including Grantham Matthew.
There’s a $1million horse entered to make her debut at Tampa on Saturday in the 6th race Maiden SW. Gina Romantica is trained by Chad Brown and owned by Peter Brant. Which makes me think that she will be going to the turf at some point.
Classic Causeway sure looks like lone speed to me. Who else can go :23?
I wish more of these preps were wide open. Maybe some coming up.
I wonder how many Sam F Davis winners have repeated in The Tampa Bay Derby? I don’t remember too many lately. If I get time this afternoon, I’ll look into it. I’ve always felt that a good horse could reverse any trend.
That was easier than I thought. The Internet is a great thing. I wish that I would have invented that. Anyway, in the last 10 years, only one Sam F Davis winner has come back to win The Tampa Bay Derby. Just six years ago, in 2016, Todd Pletcher’s Destin won both races. I should have known that it would be Pletcher. In fact, the Hall of Famer looks to be the all-time leader with 5 Tampa Bay Derby wins. Not bad considering that Tampa is a long way from being his home track.
In the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, which horse has the highest Beyer fig? That is going to be my top choice.
Sally:
Using the top Beyer to pick a winner isn’t necessarily the best approach, but if you do go that route, you have a choice of good horses. Money Supply posted a 91 Beyer in his first and only race. Classic Causeway, the favorite, and Shipsational, a superior mudder, are experienced horses with top figures of 88 each. Good luck!
The horse in the race with the highest BSF(91) is Chad Brown’s Money Supply. But, I’d be careful there. That 91 was earned in a 6-furlong sprint which was his first start. There could be some doubt of Money Supply’s ability stretching out in distance. On the other hand, there is a saying among many horse players: “In Chad we trust”. Classic Causeway and Shipsational both have 88s on their running lines. Shipsational’s being earned over a sloppy track. Which he could possibly get tomorrow. Giant Game has an 86 which he was given for his 3rd place finish in The Breeders Cup Juvenile way back in November at Del Mar. He comes off of a puzzling race in The Holy Bull, but, he continues to train well. His workout tab is littered with 59+ five furlong works. For me, I like the rising numbers pattern of Classic Causeway(73, 84, & 88). Classic Causeway has won both races where he didn’t break from a disastrous post position. Won those two races easily IMO. But, numbers aren’t everything. As Steve Haskin has pointed out a few times, it’s time for Classic Causeway to step up his game and run faster. I think he will on Saturday.
Good reply, I just watched a replay of Money Supplys race. Very nice horse, small horse finished well. Jose Ortiz
stays on. I trust the connections aren’t putting the horse in a bad spot so he should run well. Good luck!
Hi Sally
I prefer to use Equibase Speed Figures, as opposed to Beyers. Classic Causeway has the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the field at 104, followed by Shipsational at 98. A straight 4/9 exacta might work.
BTW, Money Supply’s Beyer of 91 is the same as his Equibase Speed Figure of 91, and he’s never raced beyond 6 furlongs. Proceed with caution if you plan on betting Money Supply.
Good luck.
Thanks to everyone who responded with great information. I’m taking it under advisement and Classic Causeway will be a top choice along with Giant Game and Money Supply as more longshot choices. Good luck to all!
Oh well, it looks as if Money Supply will scratch.
Anyone know where I can find video of Shipsational’s March 6 workout? Googled it with no luck.
I’m looking at Classic Causeway’s fractions in the Sam Davis. They were 22.66>46.67>1:11.51>1:36.82>1:42.80
I find it extremely hard to believe he went that last call in 5.98 seconds based on his earlier fractions and with him being eased up before the wire. Anyone else feel the recorded time is not accurate?
Irad Ortiz is named to ride Classic Causeway on Saturday at Tampa. He’s only ridden 10 horses at the current meet, but, he’s won 5 times for a nifty 50% winning percentage. Irad Ortiz is serious business when he rides at Tampa. As for the trainers: Chad Brown is 14/31 45%, Todd Pletcher 7/17 41%, and Shug McGaughey 4/11 36%. All 3 of them should be taken very seriously when they ship in to Tampa.
Feeling bad for CC,regarding rider.
He served his time. He’s a new man now. He’s been rehabilitated. I’m sure that he will only walk the straight and narrow from now on. BTW, how about Irad Ortiz getting to ride all those Stakes races at Gulfstream last Saturday while being “suspended”? What the heck kind of a suspension is that? Sometimes, this sport that we all love so much doesn’t make sense. Suspensions, Stewards calls, and whip rules are at the top of that list.
We share diff. opinions regarding him. He’s a jerk!
Greatest Honour is entered to make his long awaited comeback in the Grade III Challenger on Saturday at Tampa which is the 8th race on the card. I can’t believe that they would run him on an “off track” after all the trouble that they’ve had getting him back to the races. Maybe the predicted rain won’t be as bad as they say. It’s strange to me that he shows up at Tampa while Gulfstream is still running. Gulfstream is his track. All 3 of his wins were over that track. If they were looking for a “soft spot” for his return, this race could be tougher than they figured. There are a couple of “streakers”, Scalding & Cody’s Wish, drawn towards the outside. Tune In is a different kind of a beast on a wet track. Wolfie’s Dynaghost has won 2 in a row himself and we know that he runs on anything. Dynamic One ran 2nd in the now “infamous” Wood Memorial. Well, maybe that’s not a good thing in retrospect. Greatest Honour last raced in the 2021 Florida Derby which was just a couple of weeks shy of a year ago. His workouts fail to inspire. But, the Greatest Honour of last year would have easily handled these boys. I hope he runs well and makes a great comeback. However, with Greatest Honour’s year layoff, I’ll have to try Cody’s Wish who seems to have figured things out after all the hype that was thrown his way at Saratoga. Cody’s Wish is a May foal and a son of Curlin and maybe he just took awhile to get going in the right direction.
I forgot to mention Hidden Stash who loves the track at Tampa.
Glad GH is back for Shug. Liked him from beginning.
Not a chance GH wins, probably be scratched
Jeff, good one! lol
GH has a good chance.
Awful effort by GH, sorry…
Wrong regarding he’d prevail. U said he would miss race. lol
Oh, I see. lol
Oh, I see. lol
Steve,
It’s an absolute joy to read your writing; I look forward each week to your stories and expertise. I was curious as to your opinion on a couple of horses not talked about too much. Cyberknife and We The People we’re both incredibly impressive last out, albeit without the class test. The latter is running in an allowance race Saturday at Oaklawn, do you see him returning for the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial if successful on Saturday? It appeared in his only race, he took on multiple challenges and drew off with ease nonetheless. Constitution out of a Tiznow mare seems like superior speed and stamina. Cyberknifes last race race was also a thing of beauty; do you know where he will run next? No one seems to want to take the mantle of outstanding 3 year old, so I would love to hear your thoughts on these two talents.
Thank you so much Jay, thats very kind of you. Cyberknife looked solid in his last race, and I liked the way he drew off. I’m just not sure what he beat and he would need to improve, but a real nice colt. We The People was extremely impressive but as you know hes way behind as a Derby horse
I have heard owners of Cyberknife aree BULLISH on the horse! Also heard horse is somewhat of a head case! The Oaklawn race was supposed to be a “reset”, and I think they accomplished their goal with him, I became aware of the horse because of his ownership….
We the People, is the another colt that really impressed me as well. Are WinStar thinking of the Derby with him? Silly question I guess. Pletcher did say that some of his colts were more suited to the Preakness or other Stakes. Hope they wait on him.
The latest on Tiz The Bomb is he’s back on the derby trail after his impressive wide trip victory in the Battaglia. McPeek said Tiz will target the Fla Derby or ARK Derby to get more points to qualify. Not giving up on TTB who I bet in KDFW2. IMO the ARK Derby seems like a softer spot. Either way he will need 3rd or better to punch his ticket to Louisville.
No chance.
Kenny McPeek hopes to sweep The Derby Trifecta with 3 pretty good horses.
2022 is one of those years where—its less than 2 months out and I’m only now starting to form ideas about the Kentucky Derby……By this time last year we had seen the three year old stars, and the same five won all of the bigger races….something tells me there are winners of big races that aren’t being talked about much, now—like there’s MORE, to this story…..looks like a wet Tampa for this weekend, and that plays out differently, than fast—-like I found our when I made my biggest (up till then, and 2nd biggest of my lifetime) wager of my life on Tabasco Cat, and got dusted, in the slop by the late Go For Gin….look for speed, in the slop front runner’s come back without the ten lbs of mud, and with weather predicted wet they may roll down the cushion….something I do not approve of! Another reason west coasters do well in the Triple Crown, the weather…..of course there’s Bob, too, but this year is different, THERE, as well. All the talk about Mandella being “due”, well he isn’t, he rarely goes to Kentucky, Dale Roman’s is DUE!
Asmussen is DUE! I agree with you, Matthew. I also have a feeling that there’s a surprise or two in store for us.
Wish his horses,as well as all horses safe races,however never liked him.
Yes, Matthew I tend to agree with your observation. I’m not really convinced that any of the more favored colts really want 10f. to express themselves. There are a couple of Tapit colts that fit the bill but they’ve just started back the past two weeks.
Baffert’s good colt appears a Classic type but who knows what is going on there. Why the secrecy?
M. Casse’s fine 3yo colt Golden Glider is an April foal playing catch-up with the rest. We haven’t seen the best of him thus far, but perhaps we may this Saturday in TAM Bay. ML 20/1
Keeneland is the other possibility with a Derby appearance in mind. Otherwise it’s alternative races later this Spring and Summer for him.
Although he’s still a bit immature, he’s much too complete a race horse physically, mentally and blood wise not to be heard from as racing continues this year..
Roberta, are you going to the Tampa Bay Derby? There are so many conflicting weather reports, what is your reading? Rain or no rain for Saturday? I’m looking forward to the return of Major General in the Tampa Bay Derby and perhaps even more so the return of Greatest Honour in the Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes.
Looks like some fun racing to have, let’s hope Mother Nature plays her part.
Dynamic One also got class and Shug seems to have Scalding “in the zone”… they should put on a good show against the very likeable Greatest Honour.
Commandperformance resuming in race 5 and 5 Stakes make for a very enjoyable Saturday at Tampa Bay indeed !
I am expecting a big step up from Classic Causeway but watching closely Major General’s performance as well.
Yes Nelson, none of the races seem easy and Tampa Bay is quirky at times but less so now. The turf surface is one of the best in the US so the turf racing is always highly anticipated. From memory, the dirt track takes heavy rain quite well so it shouldn’t be a pool of soup. Even so, pray for sunshine.
Shug has a good filly in Kathleen O., so if Greatest Honour can come back as good as last year he should have an exciting year.
I was thinking about it, Davids. But the forecast is not good. In fact it could be a cruddy day in the Tampa area. It’s too much of a drive to possibly encounter bad weather for a day of racing. It takes close to 5 hours. It’s too bad because the Downs at Oldsmar always puts on a good show on TBD Day. I wanted to see Greatest Honour SO much! As usual, Shug has been patient bringing him back. Major General will be interesting to see after the five month layoff. He looked wonderful at CD but I wonder what we can take from his win. It wasn’t much of a field… in retrospect.
Oh well. Let’s hope for the best then. Tampa usually takes a fair amount of rain quite well but these days with climate change you can a month’s rain within an hour. Fingers crossed, though. I guess if it’s too much rain Shug will scratch Greatest Honour anyway. Major General, I’m hoping, is one of those colts that keeps progressing so, over winter, he may have progressed a few lengths faster than last year. He’s determined as well, not deterred by a few bumps in the road. We’ll see.
Enjoy the day no matter what.
Glad to see Commandperformance back on the racetrack in a MSW on 3-12 at Tampa Downs this weekend. After checking the PP ‘s CP absolutely towers over this field of 8 and will likely be the deserving 1-9 FAV. HE will get some conditioning out of this 1 mile race though not likely much competition. Anything short of a romping in hand win would be a major dissapointment for CP as he attempts to follow this MSW race with a go in the Wood Memorial in April against salty colts such as Morello and Mo Donegal. I bet CP at 33-1 in KDFW3 and look forward to his race Saturday though it will likely be a one horse race.
If he doesn’t win, I think we can safely conclude that Pletcher screwed up.
After 16 Derby prep races this year and 11 more to go there are 5 horses already qualified.
Below is a table showing the 25 horses I believe have the best chances of making it to the Derby including the placing they need to get enough points in those Stakes. My assumption is that there won’t be big surprises in the upcoming Stakes. I am not sure about the Sunland Derby (March 27) but its winner (of 50 points) will most likely be in the Derby as well.
……………HORSE………..POINTS……POS. NEXT RACE……………………………Worst PLACE NEEDED
1. Epicenter………. 64……… Louisiana Derby …………………………………….Qualified
2. Un Ojo…………… 54……… Blue Grass Stakes/Arkansas Derby………..Qualified
3. Simplification…. 54……… Florida Derby…………………………………………..Qualified
4. Morello………….. 50……… Wood Memorial……………………………………….Qualified
5. Forbidden Kingdom 50 Santa Anita Derby……………………………………Qualified
6. Smile Happy…… 30……… Blue Grass Stakes …………………………………..3rd
7. Ethereal Road… 20……… Arkansas Derby……………………………………….3rd
8. In Due Time……. 20……… Florida Derby…………………………………………..3rd
9. Barber Road…….18……… Arkansas Derby……………………………………….3rd
10. Classic Causeway16………Tampa Bay Derby…………………………………1st or 2nd
11. Zandon……………..14………Blue Grass Stakes…………………………………1st or 2nd
12. White Abarrio……12………Florida Derby………………………………………..1st or 2nd
13. Mo Donegal……..12………Wood Memorial…………………………………..…1st or 2nd
14. Tiz the Bomb……10………Jeff Ruby Steaks……………………………………1st or 2nd
15. Rattle N Roll…… 10………Louisiana Derby………………………………….…1st or 2nd
16. Major General…10………Tampa Bay Derby……………………………….…..1st or 2nd
17. Early Voting*……..10……..Wood Memorial…………………………………..*Aiming at Preakness
18. Call Me Midnight 10……Louisiana Derby………………………………………1st or 2nd
19. Emmanuel…….…..5……… Florida Derby……………………………………1st or 2nd
20. Pioneer of Medina..5….. Louisiana Derby……………………………….1st or 2nd
There are five very capable horses with no points so far but who could be emerging as serious contenders next month.
Cyberknife …….. 0………… Blue Grass Stakes/Louisiana Derby………… 1st or 2nd
MESSIER**..…….0………… Santa Anita Derby…………………………………….1st or 2nd
SECRET OATH…..0……….. Arkansas Derby…………………………………………1st or 2nd
More speculative is what would be next for Pletcher’s Commandperformance
Charge It………… 0……….. Speculation: needs 1st or 2nd in the Blue Grass or the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial/1st in the Sunland Derby?
**Pending timely change of barn
Nelson, you have broken so many owners’ hearts with the table above. Lol. In case you are unaware, No. 14 Tiz the Bomb, is supposedly heading to the Epsom Derby not the Kentucky Derby.
Thanks for the correction. That was the idea … to compile the collective intelligence so as to make my Derby Roulette a bit more accurate.
Some of those owners will be praying for rousing rebounds of their horses: Giant Game, Slow Down Andy, Pappacap, Emmanuel and Dash Attack.
Currently there are 56 horses with at least one (1) qualifying point and it is just naked reality that at least 31 got no chance to be in the Derby… sorry !
I am just trying to have some fun in the march of things.
There is also the wild cards of the UAE Derby and the Lexington Stakes to consider as well. Moreover, the Jeff Ruby Steaks seems overly generous with it’s ability to send two colts immediately into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Could be a real scramble at the end.
Good points Davids. I gather that Pinehurst will be in the UAE Derby adding more suspense to the show.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes is like a mock blockade to other DIRT horses with 30 to 40 points who hold better chances than any eventual synthetic wonder…!
Anyways, I am waiting for EddieF’s projected 20 as we both are engaged in some entertaining ad hoc contests just for the fun of it.
Your chart is much appreciated. The possibilities are nearly endless. So what exactly are you challenging me with here? Guessing now which horses will be in the gate?
I get tied up in knots every year about the 170 points for both the UAE Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes. Aarrgghh!!
and Rattle N Roll needs to rebound big time as well….!
OMG Nelson. That’s fantastic! Thank you. It’s going to be such a strange outcome points-wise without the Baffert horses.
Great chart. Thanks for posting. Classic Causeway for the win at TBD Saturday.
The forgotten 3yo is White Abarrio. Out of sight, out of mind. I think he’ll give Simplification a run for his purse money.
I thought that was Major General and you somewhat confirmed it for me by mentioning another possibility as the forgotten colt of the Derby trail. Lol.
🙂 At least MG is entered in a race for Saturday.
The weather at Tampa is a concern though.
Could they have found just the right mix of speed and stamina with Smile Happy? Run Happy to a Pleasant Tap Mare. My only problem with Smile Happy is that we can’t get the value that we should because of Mattress Mac betting so much money on the horse. No offense. He seems like a really nice man. On the other hand, Mac’s bets will have less of an impact with the huge Derby pool. I should just concentrate on picking the winner and forget about all the outside stuff.
A 12-race card at Tampa on Saturday with an 80% chance of rain. As usual, Steve Haskin was right, Commandperformance is entered in the 5th race. A Maiden race to be contested over a mile and 40yards. A good starting out point for him. Commandperformance will be adding blinkers for the race as he tries to maintain his spot on Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings. The Tampa Bay Derby drew a 12-horse field including Classic Causeway, Giant Game, Major General, and Shipsational. Other interesting horses entered on the card are: Greatest Honour, Dynamic One, and Wolfie’s Dynaghost.
Props to Tampa Bay Downs for not scheduling any turf races before the 3 Stakes races that are to be run on the turf. Obviously, they are very aware of the forecast. There is a 4th turf race scheduled, but, it’s the 12th and final race on the card and can easily be moved to the main track.
Mike Welsch
@DRFWelsch
Jockey Paco Lopez suspended 14 racing days and put on probation the rest of the meet for his ride aboard runner-up In Due Time in Saturday’s G2 Fountain of Youth
Yep, watching it over several times you can see where he caused the problem. Tricky angle. Good call by the stewards.
Yes; but I have to wonder why the horse wasn’t dq’d.
Hey EddieF… I saw you were enquiring about Antonio Sano likelihood of confidently getting a Grade 1 win with Simplification.
I read that Steve trusts the Venezuelan horseman to deliver at higher level given his achievements with Gunnevera. Sano has not won a Grade 1 race so far, but he was close with Gunnevera being the runner-up in two Grade 1 Stakes (the Woodward and the BC Classic) and a 3rd in the Dubai World Cup… not to shabby eh!
I thought you would appreciate a brief background of Antonio Sano’s accomplishments back in Venezuela.
The son Italian immigrants decided to leave a career as Electronic Engineer to follow his undying passion of training horses. After all he was close to horses since childhood thanks to the involvement of his father, grandfather and uncle in horse racing.
There are three main racetracks in Venezuela and each one got its OWN Triple Crown series for Fillies and Colts.
Sano developed his career in the second most important racetrack the Hipódromo de Valencia in the prominent city of Valencia. He extended his career there from 1988 to 2009. He was champion Trainer for 19 years in that track making him the winningest trainer in Venezuela with 3338 wins. This achievement is a monumental one considering that the track runs all year long with only one day of racing in the week. After a quick calculation you would note that he won an average of 3 races per racing day. Sano was so dominant that he was called the “Czar of Valencia”.
He won all the Stakes in the Valencian calendar but to just give you a sample of his skills I am recalling that he won 28 Triple Crown races for Fillies and 13 for colts in the Valencian Triple Crown history.
As you may have read elsewhere, he decided to leave his country after being kidnapped for 36 days. On top of the violence and crime, the poor socio-economic situation of the country was another factor triggering the Venezuelan Diaspora.
Antonio Sano is a living testament that talent, honesty, integrity and hard work are the keys to achieve peace and prosperity in the land of the free.
Other great Venezuelan champion Trainers who emigrated to America are Gustavo Delgado and Juan Carlos Avila. Both are in the Caribbean Hall of Fame and have been also successful in Florida. They have a huge resume of accomplishments in Venezuela as well… but this could be a matter of another post…!
Letruska’s trainer the Mexican Fausto Gutiérrez is also a member of the “Salón de la Fama del Caribe” (the Caribbean Hall of Fame).
I would say that these trainers have been very successful considering the language barrier and that their opportunities come almost exclusively from Hispanic owners supporting them.
Nelson you just took my whole comment for next week away going into his background.
Sorry Steve… I did not know that you were going to talk about the Venezuelan Trainer.
You may delete this post then you don’t have to rework your column… I will give EddieF my email address so I can direct my answers to him whenever he got a personal question.
No thats fine. Youre just too far ahead of me. Lol I’ll figure something out.
This is a wonderful post, Nelson — even if you did steal Steve’s thunder!
Thanks Ms Blacktype … I just thought it would be a good idea to convey the tribulations of my countrymen and their struggle to get ahead in a blessed land of opportunities…
I believe they deserve more exposure in the main US racing sites. I don’t see accounts about their professionalism there perhaps because of the language barrier … Anyways, I don’t think they will be relying on me for PR gains… LOL
Wow! Thanks, Nelson. That’s an outstanding summary of Sano’s Venezuelan career. I was aware of his success but not the details. And his kidnapping was, of course, covered by the U.S. press when Gunnevera was active. I seem to remember having a conversation with you about Sano a few years back. Obviously, he’s an exceptional trainer — and now he has previous Ky Derby experience!
Thanks EddieF. I just thought that I had to write about my countrymen as there is nothing much said about their tribulations in the main racing sites.
An I also wanted to let you know about the peculiarity of Provincial Triple Crown Series (i.e. each racetrack with its own TC).
Can you imagine California instituting its own Triple Crown Series.
With CDI showing time and again that the Derby is not a National Patrimony but its very own commercial product one can appeal to the free market and competition to establish a Western Triple Crown. It will be staged by the three main racetracks there and with better time frame (i.e. a month or three weeks between races). That would tremendously improve the shape of racing in California attracting more horses to increase the average starters per race and also the Western breeding industry.
If you need more justifications, you could claim that the current TC is an Eastern Affair and that the immensity of the US merits that a West region, with a population of 78 million, deserves their own Triple Crown.
One problem would be that Baffert will win all the races until he retires …LOL!
It is not Secession my friend… only business!
I know… I know… I should stop taking this painkiller now…! LOL
Anyways, please feel more than welcome to exchange comments, questions, figures, stats and ideas at maanlearn@hotmail.com
That is a strange circumstance in Venezuela with the regional crowns. But don’t you think it dilutes the significance of the achievement? I’d like to hear your take on how racing has changed in Venezuela since the country’s horrific turn.
I proposed back in the BloodHorse days that one of the U.S. Triple Crown events should be in California. That proposal was vehemently shot down!
Thanks for your reply EddieF.. I had replied to your post but it is waiting moderation as it contains my email and Leonard needs to approve… I guess.
Great! Thanks!
Fascinating story Nelson. If you are interested, the story of the Australian trainer TJ Smith is just as remarkable. Smith was the champion Sydney trainer 33 years in a row.
I would love to see a Runhappy win the derby. I am waiting to see Forbidden Kingdom against a tougher field. I would love to see Mandella win the derby, he certainly deserves it. Those are my emotional choices.
Thanks Paddy. Emotional choices are a major part of the Derby.
But I don’t want to see a dead heat! 😉
I was surprised to see that Forbidden Kingdom was made the Morning Line Favorite for this weekend’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager. I just watched a replay of his romping San Felipe win and he appeared to run fast all the way around the track. He earned a 98 BSF for that win. If that’s not the best BSF earned on this year’s Derby Trail, it certainly has to be right near the best. Forbidden Kingdom has a real nice rising numbers pattern going: 59, 79, 94, and 98 earned this past Saturday. His San Felipe win was visually very impressive. He never gave his opponents a chance. Still, to me, he looked like a sprinter stretching out. I think that he will have to relax and harness that speed to win The Derby. Can he equal or even improve on that 98 BSF as the distances increase and the competition gets stronger? He certainly has the right trainer in his corner. I’m a big Richard Mandella fan even if his best work has always been done in California. In a year when there are so many interesting horses on The Derby Trail, Forbidden Kingdom has to rank as one of the most interesting. At least for now.
Like I said, I’m a big fan of Richard Mandella. I lived most of my life in California. Specifically, in the Los Angeles area. I think that Richard Mandella always gets his horses to be the best that they can be. Who can forget his four Breeders Cup wins at Santa Anita in 2003? How about his four wins in the “big Money” Pacific Classic including Dare and Go’s huge upset of the great Cigar? I know we throw around the word “great” pretty liberally these days, but, I consider Richard Mandella a great horse trainer. He’s 71 now and is still winning at 20%. How about that! But, I was thinking about the great(there’s that word again) Beholder. Beholder won 18 races in 26 starts. All 18 of those victories were in California. Beholder only raced outside of The Golden State twice. She ran 2nd in the 2013 Kentucky Oaks and 4th in the 2014 Ogden Phipps at Belmont. Believe me, I don’t mean this as a knock. I just find it interesting. The two races outside of California are too small of a sample size to call it “weird”.
I still am hoping for a big effort for RATTLE AND ROLL so i am not giving up. Right now though i think its Epicenter im jumping on – I Just loved the way he looked so i will keep a close eye on the two
I am so hopeful for Secret Oath! Hoping Lukas gives her the chance to run in the Arkansas Derby. She has nothing to lose already in the KY Oaks starting gate and what a moment in horse racing history She could make!
That sure would add a lot of excitement
Sherri
Running top fillies against top colts, on dirt, has always been a concern of mine. Racing on turf is a different matter.
My main concern is that fillies might over-extend themselves against the boys, and possibly sustain a life threating injury. Eight Belles was all out to finish 2nd in the 2008 Kentucky, but broke down as she crossed the finish line, and had to be euthanized.
In a match against Foolish Pleasure, Ruffian suffered the same fate. Wonder Gadot was an up-and-coming filly, but was never the same after finishing last, running against the boys in the 2018 Travers Stakes.
IMO, running top fillies against top colts is a recipe for potential disaster.
Occasionally, inflated egos can cloud good judgement. I’m hopeful Lukas will show restraint, and point Secret Oath to the Kentucky Oaks, and pass on the Arkansas Derby. Just my opinion.
It takes an exceptional filly/mare to compete and win against the colts, definitely, and size matters. Rachel was as big as most of the colts she ran against and Zenyatta was bigger than all of them. They both also dominated the females they ran against so they were primed to step up against males. I’ve read that Secret Oath is nearly 17 hands and she is also turning in dominating performances against the fillies. If she continues on that trajectory and stays healthy, it certainly would add a some spark to the Derby if her connections felt like she has enough foundation under her and decided to run her.
Thanks for the reply, Rachel.
You make a good point when you stated, “size matters”. It certainly did matter when Zenyatta and Rachel Alexanderia were racing against the boys, when they were in their prime. If indeed, Secret Oath compares in size to those two exceptional mares, that is all well and good. However, I seriously doubt that Secret Oath has reached her prime and is not ready to take on the boys in the Arkansas Derby, and certainly not in the Kentucky Derby, IMO.
Granted, Zenyatta and Rachel Alexanderia are two exceptional mares, their accomplishments running against the boys are well documented. Fillies/mares like those two, are far and few between. Time will tell if Secret Oath can accomplish what they did, as she moves forward with her career.
That said, I stand by my original comment regarding this issue, “running top fillies against top colts, on dirt, is a recipe for a potential disaster”.
Have a good day, Rachel.
Thank you for the good follow up points, Bill. True, Rachel and Zenyatta were well into their careers when they took on the boys and much more battled tested than Secret Oath is. Size can be an advantage, however Eight Belles was a large filly too, but prone to tripping over her own feet because of her running style, and we saw the tragic result when she was overextended. SO looks like she could be something special, but it’s still early to say where her talent will take her. We’ve all seen that if you project what a horse will achieve based on early brilliance, you could be disappointed down the road. I’ll be watching her closely and hoping she’ll continue to move forward as she takes on tougher competition. I have to admit, I have a soft spot in my heart for her because I loved her sire Arrogate and she reminds me so much of him with her tall lanky frame that long ground-eating stride.
Rachel was leaned on much @ 3.
It is noteworthy that 4 of the first 5 qualified horses to the Derby have Blushing Groom in their pedigree.
Blushing Groom was a rare Juvenile Quadruple Crown Champion in France and European champion miler who defeated well known horses like J O Tobin (in the Grand Criterium) and Exceller (in a 10.5-furlong trial at Chantilly). A $6 million syndication took Blushing Groom to Gainesway Farm in 1978 where he stood for 12 years. It takes a whole blog to convey Blushing Groom’s achievements in the breeding field. I would just mention Blushing Groom’s grandsons Awesome Again and Carson City, and granddaughter Better Than Honour (the dam of Belmont Stakes victors Rags to Riches and Jazil) as examples of his indelible mark in U.S. dirt races and around the Triple Crown series.
We have talked about Simplification’s second dam, Ballado’s Halo, being full sister to champion Ashado but interesting is his 5 x 5 x 5 linebred to Blushing Groom and 5×5 to Herbager. These two chef-de-race stallions warrant a surplus of Stamina. Blushing Groom crossed with I Will Follow by Herbager produced the famous Champion Stayer Rainbow Quest. The 5×5 to Northern Dancer also helps the genetic credentials of Simplification.
As noted many times here, Epicenter (Not This Time- Silent Candy by Candy Ride) got the same cross as Simplification but with more European influence on the bottom of his pedigree through King of Kings, Ela-Mana-Mou and Busted.
In Forbidden Kingdom’s bloodline we see a 5 x 4 linebred to Blushing Groom and Morello’s pedigree shows Blushing Groom in the 3rd generation of his dam side.
Cyberknife is another talented horse exhibiting a 5×5 linebreeding to Blushing Groom.
Prior Derby winners featuring Blushing Groom in their pedigrees are Barbaro, Animal Kingdom, Justify and Medina Spirit*.
Thanks to the successful raise of the Candy Ride-Giant Causeway nick and the prominence of Gun Runner it is expected to see Blushing Groom staying current in the genetic fabric of high-level horses for many years. It is the incomparable Nasrullah line still well and alive in the male and distaff sides of the top American horses …!
As a damsire, Blushing Groom may be best known in the US through the exploits of Goldikova. Blushing Groom was Sheikh Mohammed’s favorite sire. Moreover, Blushing Groom had a phenomenal record of 18% stakes winners.
Yes Davids… Blushing Groom got 18% of Stakes winners out of 522 named foals which is really outstanding.
Bold Ruler got 82 stakes winners (22.4%) from 366 named foals. It was the era of 30 to 40 foals per year.
Just as a reference, I am reminding the figures for other champion sires.
Mr. Prospector ended up with 182 stakes winners (15.2%) from 1195 named foals.
Long-lived Storm Cat shows 177 stakes winners (12.2%) from 1452 named foals.
Modern Champion Tapit (1505 foals) and Into Mischief (1233) sport 9% and 10% of Stakes Winners from total number of foals respectively.
The great late sire Giant Causeway is the leader in Stakes winners with 167 (representing 8% of his 1978 foals).
I wonder what would have been the final tally for Bold Ruler and Blushing Groom if they had lived more than 17 and 18 years…
Very impressed Nelson with these numbers. Any idea what the percentage was for Northern Dancer & A.P. Indy?
The Dancer was one one of my favorite horses and sometimes I think he doesn’t get enough credit as a sire.
Many thanks
Thanks Deacon… You make a very important point about Northern Dancer.
The Genetic Giant got 147 stakes winners (22.8%) from 645 named foals… even better than Bold Ruler’s.
I should have mentioned him first …!
A.P. Indy sport 156 stakes winners (12.7%) from 1224 named foals.
Northern Dancer: had 645 named foals, siring 411 winners (63.7%) with 147 stakes winners at an incredible 22.8%.
A.P. Indy had a 12.5%. Danzig 18%
Thanks for the reminder Davids…
Danzig had 1099 named foals.
Not to forget Greatest Honour Akko comes from the great family of Best in Show. Better than Honour is part of this fabulous family.
Great stuff Nelson thanks.
Love your summary of Blushing Groom’s brilliance on the racetrack. That he was able to transmit that brilliance to his offspring and through many generations is a testament to his greatness.
The owners of Cyberknife are gung-ho, about the horse’s talent, but his head is not screwed on tight, yet! That is, IF I am talking about the same horse….early move in the Lecomte then allowance win?
Maybe they wanted to see how he would rebound after the LeComte without having to face Epicenter, Happy Smile and Zandon in the Risen Star.
I would say that Cyberknife was rather impressive in his Fair Ground Allowance win as he clocked 1:42.53 for 1 1/16 mile, 2/5 slower than the track record set by Olympiad (1:42.01) in the Mineshaft Stakes an hour later.
Cyberlink ran an outstanding split time for the 6 furlongs … He could be tough next time in the Louisiana Derby or in the Blue Grass…
You may remember how people doubted Mandaloun bouncing back in the Derby following a humiliating defeat in his last prep… it might happen again with Cyberknife after a disappointing LeComte… worth to wait and see.
Steve, you deserve the heartiest congratulations in sorting out this year’s “Derby Dilemma.” Two elephant stamps and a gold star. None of the colts really convince me they want to run a fast 10f. The ones I have/had faith in are either marking it hard for themselves to get in or are out of the picture altogether.
Zatip has just started back this week and Naval Aviator has had a couple of works. They’re obviously out of the trial altogether. Zandon and Charge It might get in to the Derby picture with good performances in the Blue Grass Stakes but even then they are extremely inexperienced no matter how talented they might be.
Major General starts back in the Tampa Bay Derby so, fingers crossed, he puts in a sound performance and grabs some more points. High Oak, hopefully, will be given a chance at the Preakness Stakes or something later rather than persevering with the Derby. High Oak did look good prior to and during the race before the fall, shame.
If White Abarrio wins the Florida Derby with authority he could be a real danger and the other Race Day colt, Barber Road, could be better than a lot of people think should he continue to run well. Now we come to Forbidden Kingdom, if Mandella can win the Santa Anita Derby with this colt he’ll have to be a real danger. Moreover, the favorite.
As for the other prominent colts at this stage, I’m not really convinced they’re Derby colts but they can prove me wrong. Ken McPeek winning the Derby would be well deserved and the Epsom Derby would be event better. There doesn’t appear to be a standout in Europe so, you never know. Go Kenny!!
Another fun read, Steve, with so much backstory. The best part of the trial are the weekly Derby Rankings. Thanks again.
I appreciate that David thank you very much. I saw Naval aviator had 2 3f breezes. Too bad he lost all that time
Steve, it could be that the better colts will come to prominence later in the year. It’s a strange year even with the Baffert colts playing hide and seek.
I like Lucas horses a lot,one is a big closer
I like Epicenter for #1 and then Forbidden Kingdom as #2. Smile Happy #3
and Simplification #4, Morello #5 and then Zedan #6.Things will be clearer in their next races but at least
we are getting a better idea of who should be high up on the list. Would like to see Mr. Mandella get his
Derby win.
The most shocked person would be Dick. Lol
Steve;
I just saw on HRN that Lukas plans to run Secret Oath in the Fantasy, and Ethereal Road in the Arkansas Derby. If so, I guess that Secret Oath will go to the Kentucky Oaks? I would be real disappointed as she looks like she could beat the males in the Kentucky Derby…maybe he will change his mind…Can you please inquire?
Belongs in Oaks.
I agree, but she is Steve’s 7th ranked Kentucky Derby horse…
I spoke to the owner earlier today and she said they are considering both options, no definite decision, so who knows? I cant find the story where Lukas said that.
I find it slightly ironic that, at the end of last year, all the scribes we saying that the best 2 year old was Echo Zulu and that she should be running for the Kentucky Derby not the Oaks.
Now we have another filly, Secret Oath, being considered as a Kentucky Derby prospect. Makes life interesting. Ha ha
For sure.
It was heartbreaking when Mandella had to scratch the likely Derby winner Omaha Beach only days before the race but I was sure that other Derby doors would be open for the Hall of Fame Trainer. Three years after that disheartening moment Mandella gets another Derby horse in Forbidden Kingdom.
Mandella’s reputation of being very conservative with young horses is endorsed by his stats showing only 6 of his horses entered in the Derby during his 47 years as a professional trainer.
He had a nice Derby prospect named Dixie Union in 2000 but a knee injury while running the BC Juvenile kept the son of Dixieland Band on the sideline for 6 months.
Forbidden Kingdom appears to be the fastest horse ever trained by Mandella, even faster that his previous fastest horse named Wild Rush.
Steve will be elaborating on Forbidden Kingdom’s pedigree next week.
Forbidden Kingdom at first glance appears to be just a brilliant sprinter but if you start peeling the onion you will see that he got a good latent reserve of stamina through Vanlandingham, Blushing Groom and Temperance Hill in his dam side… and if his dad American Pharoah features heavily in Forbidden Kingdom’s abilities, no one should be surprised if he replicates the exploits of Spend a Buck, War Emblem or Medina Spirit in the Derby. The fact that he won easier going two turns is also encouraging…
My bias for California based horses is justified (with 7 of them winning the last 10 Derbies) and when a horse annihilates Baffert prospects like Forbidden Kingdom does one can only deem such horse as a strong Derby contender.
To me the Santa Anita Derby, featuring Messier vs. Forbidden Kingdom, will be the key race to define the favorite of the 2022 Derby.
I would love to see Richard Mandella winning the Derby not only because he is due to win it but because he and Ron McAnally were the greatest promoter of South American Thoroughbreds in America.
Crossing fingers to keep all the prospects healthy as they are taking more training load during the last two months of the Trail.
He’s due and deserving.
Are you scooping my column? Lol. I’ve already written my pedigree comment on him. I would love to see Dick win. But the horse still has to show me a sign he wants any part of 10 furlongs. I am ranking him a bit higher next week. Dick only ran him in the San Felipe just to give him a shot at it. Are you aware who FK’s first trainer was?
Yes Steve… you had written before that Baffert was FK’s first trainer… perhaps that is why the son of American Pharoah is an Equine Flash… i.e. hard speed-building workouts from the get-go.
It was weird to see a horse in California many lengths in front of the field and not being trained by the Derby King.
Can’t wait to see the much anticipated Messier/Forbidden Kingdom match in the Sana Anita Derby.
Was BB. Agree and hope FK can relax.
Predicting the future in racing is problematical, to say the least, but l’d say the Blue Grass Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby are the two races that hold the key to the Kentucky Derby.
I agree. But I would add the Florida and Arkansas derbies. LOL
Yes, fair enough. Lol. Throw in the Wood Memorial for that matter as well but the prominent colts who are apparently heading for the Santa Anita Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes ‘appear’ to have the ability to run away with the Derby.
Esteemed Davids I am sure you will forbid my love for the Californian horses… somehow I feel like they are always better prepared just because they don’t have to endure the whiplashes of the winter.
The Empire of the Speed would be a good movie title to depict the shows put on by Messier and Forbidden Kingdom …
Nelson, over the years the winners of the Kentucky Derby, vis-à-vis East coast – West coast, seems to be cyclical but one thing that always runs true is that it’s slightly more arduous for the West coast colts than the East coast colts to get in to the Kentucky Derby field.
Geography, home base races, distance etc all play their part. Moreover, as Jimmy Cliff will warble to you, “the harder they come, the harder they fall.”
Interesting perspectives.
Nice try
So glad I finally had the sense to google ‘Steve Haskin’ and find you and the Derby Dozen at your new online home. Now Derby season can begin for real 🙂 I’d love a bit more info on O Captain as his pedigree says no problem with two turns, and yet he has been deemed a sprinter
Sorry it took you so long to find me but happy you did. I will be discussing O Captain next week. Hope to see you on a regular basis
Already saved to the Home Screen
If he draws in… SPIN WHEEL looks usable on some part of the board at a price.
If he can turn in that big run.
Outside Post and Jockey change from Leparou to Castanon… currently 8th in TAM standings and 14%. All of which should
have most all investors looking elsewhere.
Thanks Steve for another thorough Derby Ranking. We are half way with eight weeks to the D day.
It never ceases to impress how you are able to scrutinize 30 plus relevant Derby prospects and articulate such compelling reasonings every week.
I am painting a similar picture for week 8 with slight differences as I am more optimistic about Forbidden Kingdom than Morello.
It is kind of intriguing reading your glowing praises to Morello… I don’t remember you ascribing the Superstar label to any horse before. Perhaps the closest you deemed as a Superstar rather early was American Pharoah. I recall you using “budding superstar” or “potential superstar” (perhaps to Maximum Security and Rock Your World) but never the emphatic tone around Morello (i.e. “he is the one horse I have seen who has exhibited all the signs of a superstar”).
I must confess I overlooked Morello because I could not understand why Asmussen kept him in New York instead of taking his usual FG or OP route to the Derby… on top of that I was using the same excuse of “not beating much” applied to other good-looking winners to diminish their deeds. On the other hand, as an old guard fan I just love his progression in distance and speed power… who knows, sometimes even the Trainers won’t know how good their horses are until they answer all the questions on the track…!
Please, let us know Morello’s Thoro-Graph figure for the Gotham as soon as you get it…!
So, I am just wearing the Haskin hat and glasses to watch the three Morello races to see if the son of Classic Empire is bound to be another of your divination hits since Always Dreaming…
I appreciate that Nelson. Thank you very much. Morello has exhibited the signs of a superstar compared to the others, but I never meant to imply he is a superstar, just a potential one. Sorry for the confusion. Not on the same level as American Pharoah just yet. Needs to go two turns before even being in the conversation. always dreaming could have been a superstar if it werent for his ulcers.
Welcome back, Nelson!
As always, great synopsis of last weeks preps. My takeaways; love Morello but question the company he’s been keeping and apparently that won’t change for his next race. Epicenter and Simplification are similarly bred and should have zero problem with the Derby distance unlike Forbidden Kingdom. Love Mandella and I’m truly hoping he has a Derby horse, but this colt has a sprinter’s running style. His dam was a sprinter and has a sprinter pedigree. I just believe he is too fast for the classic distances. Like Steve; I’m willing to give Emmanuel a pass, this time. The FOY should toughen him up and hopefully, he’s learned some valuable lessons. All that said, if she goes (and with Lucas it wouldn’t be a surprise) I am most impressed with Secret Oath. Her Honeybee made the boys one race later look slow and ordinary.
Thanks. Why wont the company change in the Wood? We already have Mo Donegal and Early Voting going there and I’m sure there be other new faces
Hi Steve… I am updating my sheet with the possible next races and I am not sure if Early Voting will be vying for the Derby (via Wood Memorial ?).
thanks in advance for your update on the brilliant son of Gun Runner…
Latest from Chad is Wood yes, Derby no. Wood then Preakness. But trainers do change their mind
I was expecting being Aqueduct, we’d see a similar group. I didn’t take the increased Derby points available in the Wood into consideration. My bad.
KDFW4
#1 Barber Road (Race Day, 50-1)
#2 Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute, 50-1)
#3 Charge It* (Tapit, 30-1)
#4 Classic Causeway (Giant’s Causeway, 15-1)
#5 Cyberknife* (Gun Runner, 50-1)
#6 Early Voting (Gun Runner, 30-1)
#7 Emmanuel (More Than Ready, 15-1)
#8 Epicenter (Not This Time, 8-1)
#9 Ethereal Road* (Quality Road, 50-1)
#10 Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah, 5-1)
#11 In Due Time (Not This Time, 30-1)
#12 Major General (Constitution, 50-1)
#13 Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo, 12-1)
#14 Morello* (Classic Empire, 10-1)
#15 Pioneer of Medina* (Pioneerof the Nile, 30-1)
#16 Rattle N Roll (Connect, 20-1)
#17 Shipsational* (Midshipman, 50-1)
#18 Simplification (Not This Time, 12-1)
#19 Smile Happy (Runhappy, 6-1)
#20 Un Ojo* (Laoban, 50-1)
#21 White Abarrio (Race Day, 15-1)
#22 Zandon (Upstart, 12-1)
#23 Zozos* (Munnings, 50-1)
#24 “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (6-1)
I hope you cut and pasted that. Forbidden Kingdom 5-1? That’s the Derby favorite, seriously?
Who makes up these reductions odds? I realize the intent is for punters to loose money on their investment but who could be this naive?
Battaglia
Thanks, but I was being polite. Lol.
It was Fredo Battaglia, Mike’s intellectually challenged younger brother.
Mr. Haskin,
Agree! Remarks for FK on Mon. were for Local Se. Somehow lined up wrong.
Yes, I did…with some cleaning up. Forbidden Kingdom at 5-1 — I thought it was a typo, so I checked another source. Incredible!
Irad Ortiz will ride Classic Causeway again on Saturday. He is also the regular rider of Commandperformance and Mo Donegal. My guess is that Classic Causeway will really have to run an impressive race on Saturday to pull Ortiz off one of the Pletcher horses on Derby Day. Entries for The Tampa Derby will be drawn tomorrow. If Commandperformance is entered in a Maiden race on that Tampa card, maybe those 2 horses can be “free squares” on multi-race wagers. Maybe.
There’s a real possibility of a wet track at Tampa on Saturday. It would be a shame for their biggest day of the year to be ruined by the weather. The Tampa Bay Derby always draws a real big crowd.
Send the rain this direction, we need it. I hope it peters out before Saturday.
O Captain he could be a big surprise in the Derby if he gets the points he needs. And Castellanos up, is a plus. ♥️
That was a shocker. Never underestimate Venezuelan trainers.
, Ángel! The longer the better for this horse.
I agree 100%, Àngel… The longer the better for this guy!
Steve:
Zandon…The record of Derby starters that had three straight 9f races is not very good. Might so many long races dull a horse’s form?
Morello…The record of Derby starters that had just one previous 2-turn race is not very good. How important is having useful experience around two turns?
Commandperformance…Was it a mistake to not go through the conditions? Is it a mistake NOW to not stay in stakes company and earn Derby points?
I have always looked at history, but racing has changed so much that if Justify can do what he did, which is throw away the history books I now look at it differently and take each horse as an individual with no guidelines to follow any longer. I have never liked three 1 1/8 miles, but Zandon is so lightly raced and has so much brilliance he might need the foundation and doesnt look like the kind of horse that will get dulled. At least thats what I’m counting on; I could be wrong.
With Morello its the same thing but in reverse. I just have to hope he’s as good as I think he is. And he has the pedigree for 1 1/4 miles and there are no world beaters so far. There are no patterns any longer on the Derby trail, so he’s just following the only path available to him. I saw Bernardini go from a maiden win to the one mile Withers to romping in the Preakness. I saw Proud Clarion go from sprints to a 2nd in the Blue Grass to beating Damascus in the Derby. I saw Animal Kingdom win the Derby having never run on dirt. You just never know. I cant let history influence me any longer. Its a different game
If there is a mistake with Commandperformance and they really thought he was special enough to jump into a grade 1 then there should be no turning back. Just continue on that course. If you can run 2nd to Jack Christopher in the Champagne in your second start do you really need to show you can beat maidens five months later? I would have gone in the Tampa Bay Derby to set him up for his final prep. He doesnt need a confidence builder he needs to just keep doing what he was doing in graded company. Winning this race will do little for him but losing it would do a lot. If they feel he’s still the same horse as last year then the heck with a maiden race. If theyre not sure and want to make sure then perhaps they’ll breathe little easier with a dominating win.
Many thanks for the detailed responses. I still think that history can be a guide. But it can be a shorter Derby history, let’s say from around 2000. I believe that’s when things began to change. But 20+ years of Derbies can still be a significant sample. I agree completely about the schedule for Commandperformance. It’s baffling because the trainer is a hall of famer.
Steve, I understand your rankings and can’t fault you for them as some people would here. It’s still early, there still going short and not carrying weight. Its a shame they broke up the points between colts and fillies. Sort of rooting for Darnell. I also got a feeling Maker has a sneaky one in Stolen Base.
Anyone can fault the rankings. differences of opinion is always good. It’s how you go about it and if you get insulting.
To in one ear out the other — I have to be out of my mind wasting my time addressing this, but your nonsensical post, which made absolutely no sense, would have been posted anyway. But your last insulting sentence has no place on here. Think about that in the future when you want to get something posted.
You just addressed the first lone in my comment. WELL DONE
Nice to see Morello on the list, hoping he can take another step forward in the Wood. Agree on needing to wait and see with FK.
Great read, Steve. I did a fair job of predicting your ranking. I had the top four nailed in order. Loved the back stories on Smile Happy and Zandon. I’ve been meaning to ask you something about Simplification’s trainer, Antonio Sano. We all know about his history in Venezuela, where he had great success. But he’s never won a G1 stakes during his 12+ years in the U.S. Since Cam Gambolati in 1985, only Chip Woolley won a Ky Derby as his first G1. Do you trust Sano to get the job done?
I’ll study your analysis in greater depth and return with enthusiasm!
I do Eddie. He did a great job with Gunnevera a few years ago. I might have even had him No,. 1 for a while
Good to know that you trust Sano. BTW, you left out the name of the trainer for Secret Oath. 😮
I dont know what you mean
Oh. It’s there now. LOL
I didnt touch anything. All that info gets cut and pasted every week. Leonard must have noticed it got dropped.
In other words….your top five looks a lot like the 1972 San Fernando Stakes, His Majesty finishing 5th—a neck behind the (dead heat) winners!
Usually a 12 horse field with five noses on the wire would indicate a so-so field, but Autobiography, Triple Bend, Good Counsel, Unconscious, His Majesty ran 1:47 1/5, which equaled the stakes record.
all grade 1 horses
Gr1 winners!
Race also had Wing Out he also was Gr1 winner.
Anyone know when D. Wayne needs to commit to the Arkansas Derby with Secret Oath.
Entry day
Nice one…
Another interesting read, Steve, and I always look forward to hearing what you think at this most wonderful time of the year. I might have moved Simplification and Epicenter ahead of Zandon and Smile Happy at this point. I think Epicenter is going to be my “fave” going into the KD, but maybe another will catch my attention before then based upon the performances in the next few weeks. I was sad that Giant Game scratched Saturday but I’ll look forward to seeing him again soon. When High Oak went down, I gasped, as I am sure we all did, and I am so glad to hear that everyone was OK after those spills. I really hope that High Oak can stay on the trail bc I like him a lot.
Right now I have this list:
Epicenter
Simplification
Smile Happy
Zandon
White Abario
Emmanuel
Classic Causeway
Thanks again for a great read and a wonderful way tostart the week!
Steve: Another thoughtful column, with plenty to chew on over the next week. It certainly brightened up my rainy, foggy day here in the Catskills.
I too was reluctant to move Smile Happy down, even though in my mind Epicenter keeps rising to the top. I pegged him at #2, right behind Forbidden Kingdom, who impressed me most of all Saturday’s winners. A little bit of pedigree research into his immediate female family (which is loaded with graded stakes winners, most who won at a mile or more) gave me confidence in FK’s potential to run longer. I definitely want to see him do it in the Santa Anita Derby, however.
I also have Simplification at #3, which leaves poor Smile Happy as a place holder at #4. We’ll see what he’s made of in his next race. I love Zandon, but hate that he has to wait until the Blue Grass to earn his way into the Derby. It should be noted that some horses that are not ranked (Un Ojo, for instance) already have enough points to be in the gate on May 7 and may bump more deserving ones. Fingers crossed for Commandperformance on Saturday!
I go into Forbidden Kingdom’s pedigree next week
Cool! An outline of his first three dams (if this works):
TIL FORBID (3) f, 1988, Temperance Hill:
SCOOP (3) f, 1998, Gone West.
COOLWIND f, 2003, Forest Wildcat.
LOOKING COOL (3) f, 2010, Candy Ride.
Extraextraordinary (3) g, 2007, Giant’s Causeway.
Wallingford f, 2005, Cat Thief
Bustin’ Hoffman (Ny) c, 2016, Bustin’ Stones.
King’s Lynn (3) f, 1994, Mt. Livermore.
SARA LOUISE (2) f, 2006, Malibu Moon.
SPY CITY (IN) g, 2017, Street Sense.
Sara Street (2) f, 2015, Street Sense.
JUST LOUISE (3) f, 2008, Five Star Day.
FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (2) c, 2019, American Pharoah.
Capped horses are SW.
Well, it would have worked had the indents not dropped out!
The 4th Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens on Friday. The only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will run at the same time. For the truly daring, there will also be a Derby-Oaks Future Daily Double. It seems like these things come up every couple of weeks. Strangely, the 5th and final Future Wager will be March 31- April 2 which is a week before the decisive 100-pointers on April 9th.
Perfect timing for me to make a futures wager on Morello, although his road to the Derby should afford a decent price, I want more, more, more! More….ELLO!
Good luck. Morello looks like a very professional horse that can race anywhere that the jockey wants him. Obviously, that’s a good thing. He made a huge jump this week from the “knocking on the door” section all the way up to #5.
‘Ello, Matthew! What odds do you think you’ll get on Morello in the FW?
25-1 (mehopes)
I’m not at all interested in 10-1, if Morello WINS the Wood he will likely be close to 10-1 on Derby day!
Yeah, he’d be lower than 10-1 if he wins the Wood in a big way. The future price is just silly for a horse that hasn’t gone around two turns.
I won’t bet him lower than 18-1….I can make money with this guy on the day of!
Hey, TommyMc. They need to have the final KDFW the week before the final preps. If it was on the prep weekend, there’d be no point to wager when the odds would be somewhat similar on Derby Day.
Good point.
Love that Steve didn’t fall for the Forbidden Kingdom hype and put him something crazy like #1 and looked at it objectively and smart. Horse is great, but not meant for the Kentucky Derby. Pedigree is saying miler IMHO
Lately Derby Winners have speed and class. Authentic Always Dreaming Justify AP. Seems like distance not much of a factor when speed and class show the way. Lukas mentioned that years ago. GF
I tend to agree. As much as you need stamina in the European Classics, the only US Classic where stamina is necessary these days is the Belmont Stakes. Freedom Kingdom running away with the Kentucky Derby wouldn’t be a surprise.
Richard Mandella is the quite capable of pulling this off.
Forbidden Kingdom not ‘Freedom.’ I should watch the autocorrect more. Lol.
Not according to Dick. He always makes fun of himself when it comes to the Derby. But after studying his pedigree closer I will be moving him higher next week. This horse is different from the ones Glenn mentioned because they didnt have his sprinter’s speed. He could easily outrun all those horses. He is just pure speed and hasnt shown any signs of harnessing it.
Yes Steve, Forbidden Kingdom is not like Authentic or Justify nor Spend a Buck but he might get away with the one trip at 10f. As you’d know, ‘sometimes’ pure speed horses can carry their speed to a distance first off but they falter after that. Many(most) Derby colts revert back to shorter distances afterwards, which are optimal to their abilities.
Always Dreaming was beaten 18L in the Preakness. He never won another race after the KD.
u r joking? I’m sure if he were elsewhere ,some would go crazy. FK made the others-including BB’s horse ordinary. He’s the real deal, w/ a trainer who never surrounds himself w/ drama 24/7.
Mike, I agree. FK could run them off their feet. Brilliance as they say.
Glenn, kudos for remarks! Response was for local Se, somehow was placed wrong.
My impression is that everyone in the game likes and respects Mandella. No exaggeration. Everyone! 🙂
When it comes to the Derby everyone respects Mandella except Mandella. Hes always joking how bad he is with a Derby horse. I have studied this colt’s pedigree and will move him higher next week.
Well, considering that he’s only been in 5 previous Derbies with 6 starters, I’d say that it’s FAR too soon for Mandella or anyone else to be laughing at his record. Lukas was in 7 Derbies with 12 starters before his first win. Then there was Pletcher, who had 24 starters before Super Saver. Asmussen hasn’t been to the winner’s circle with any of his 23 Derby starters. Dale Romans, 11 starters, no wins. Luck plays a major role in life and Derbies.
Whittingham had only been to two Derbies, before bringing Ferdinand to Louisville, in 1986, and he won that one because of a decades long friendship with Shoemaker, whose quick thinking won the roses, if Pat Day had beat him to the spot the 1986 Kentucky Derby would’ve been won by Rampage….The Bald Eagle came back with Sunday Silence, and then Strodes Creek for 2nd Whittingham could train up a race horse!
I like the guys who brought one horse in their entire career to the Ky Derby…and won!
Eddie, I do agree however some make digs regarding Mandella elsewhere.
I guess I don’t go out often. 🙂
lol HRN.
Funny! The insane asylum. I meant people who are in the “business.”
Hi Steve. Any word on Charge It? He’s my favorite Pletcher (and one of my favorite overall 3yo) this year and see a ton of potential with him. Sounds like he may target the Florida Derby or the Bluegrass at this stage, and his last work with Commandperformance was phenomenal imo. I still think Smile Happy is the #1 horse, but would love to see Hernandez back on him (especially for the Derby), and not sure Gulfstream/FL Derby would be ideal for his running style, but he should be in the Derby points-wise either way.
He is way behind but he is nominated to the Bluegrass
The Blue Grass Stakes is getting top heavy for ‘last chance’ runners to get in the Derby. One minor slip and the dream evaporates.
Today, March 7th, Risen Star winner Epicenter, worked a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.20, (1/21) in preparation for the Louisiana Derby on March 26th. Without question, he’ll go off as the post time favorite.
I think that Steve Haskin’s list of 14 is as close to perfect as anything can possibly be at this point. Any complaints would be nit-picking. I absolutely agree that Rattle N Roll should be on the list. To my old eyes, he looked like a short horse in The Fountain of Youth. Brian Hernandez made a big move up the rail on the backstretch, but, couldn’t sustain it around the turn. Gulfstream is not an ideal track for him. I look for much better in his next race. BTW, I noticed Steve’s subtle zinger towards jockey Corey Lanerie. I hope Kenny McPeek sticks with Lanerie. I know that he will ride him much better in the next 2 races. Lanerie on Smile Happy and Brian Hernandez on Rattle N Roll would be a terrific pair of riders for The Derby at Churchill Downs. On to Tampa. The Derby is only 8 weeks from Saturday.
Thanks. Kenny is sticking with him. He has ridden him well before
I think that Simplification’s new running style, which he was sort of forced into, could serve him well going into The Derby. It’s good to know that he is adaptable. When he makes it to The Derby, and I’m pretty sure that he will, the question will be if he can transfer his Gulfstream form to Churchill Downs. He’s never run anywhere else besides Gulfstream.
Hey TommyMc
I completely agree that Simplification’s new running style was “sort of forced into”, which could have been a blessing in disguise as he moves forward to the KD. If Simplification is as good as I think he is, he’ll have no problem transferring his GP form to CD.
Simplification checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Simplification has been battle-tested for sure and will have a nice experience edge over many of The Derby horses.
I’m so happy to hear that both riders and both horses are apparently OK after that horrible accident in The Fountain of Youth. Joel Rosario also had an incident the previous weekend in Saudi Arabia. So, he must really be sore. Both High Oak and Galt were moving well before the incident. What a shame. Sometimes, horses need time to get the memory of something like that out of their minds. I’m confident that Bill Mott will do the right thing for those horses.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another in-depth analysis on your top Derby Rankings: Week 8.
You mentioned that you’ve liked Simplification since the Mucho Macho Man, and even more so since he showed a new dimension in the Holy Bull and the FOY. I’ve been on the Simplification bandwagon since his MMM win as well. On Friday, 3-4, I placed a $100.00 win wager on him at 65-1, (Vegas), and have an additional $100.00 wager on him in Derby Futures Pool 2, at 43-1. Today, I noticed those odds have dropped from 65-1 to 8-1 at Circa Casino. It appears Vegas now considers Simplification as a legitimate KD contender. 🙂
Now it’s on to the Florida Derby, and a rematch with White Abarrio. Now that Simplification has proved he can conserve his impressive speed, and use that speed in the late going, over a distance of ground, I believe he’ll turn the tables on White Abarrio in the Fla. Derby.
As it stands now, I have Simplification at #1 and Epicenter at #2 on my top ten Derby contenders list.
BTW, I’m hopeful you’ll provide Simplification’s Thoro-Graph numbers that he displayed in the FOY.
Thanks Steve.
If he wins you can buy this website
No thanks, your loyal followers would never allow that to happen.
Hope you hit it. I have a Simplification 110-1 right after his MMM win for a good chunk. Caesars-William Hill. Also have many duds but Ojo 300-1 after Withers. Early Voting 175-1 before Withers. Morello 200-1 after NY Bred Stakes win. All Circa Vegas. GF
Good going Glenn. Those are some awesome odds.
Best of luck with Simplification, that way we both hit it big. 🙂
How do you feel about the ride In Due Time was given? It looked like he was the cause of Galt and High Oak going down/dumping their jocks. Hoping there’s no setback for these two.
It’s difficult to tell at that angle. A.P.s Secret definitely came but In Due Time looked he also came out into A.P.’s Secret, so he might have been the culprit.
In his analysis, Jay Privman of DRF scorched the jock on In Due Time, saying his movements caused the accident. He also said that High Oak clipped heels with EMMANUEL (to add to his woes). I wonder if DRF had access to tape from multiple angles.
That’s how I saw the incident.
Crunch time for the 20 horse KY Derby field is in full gear Steve. I like that you sticked to your guns and held SH and Zandon at 1&2. Looks like an epic showdown is brewing for the Bluegrass where the 2 likely favorites SH and Zandon will square off again. You have to believe that Zandon would have gotten 2nd in the Risen Star if he didn’t hop out of the gate in the Risen Star. Zandon IMO could be the KY Derby favorite if he can win the Bluegrass with a full field and Star Smile Happy showing up. As you stated, I,m glad that Forbidden Kingdom will likely be in the KY Derby because Epicenter won’t be ahead of FK and will have to rate and his plans to wire the derby field could be altered. Zandon is my 56-1 KDFW1 gem and I’m glad he’s back on the work tab and targeting the BlueGrass. Like you Steve I am eagerly awaiting the under the radar Commandperformance 3 year old debut in a MSW at TB this weekend. The Wood Memorial will be loaded with the likes of Morello and Mo Donegal showing up. First things first, win the MSW Impressively then onto the Wood where CP will need a third or better to get the points to get into the Derby. I bet CP at 33-1 in KDFW3 which could be a steal if he shines in the MSW and targets the Wood as a win contender. Tiz the Bomb won impressively in his synthetic prep and heads for the Jeff Ruby Stakes. Should he win there maybe the owners will get Derby fever and send him to CD which can play friendly to turf horses. TTB is my final KDFW horse but realistically Zandon has a real chance and Commandperformance could be a live contender if he can take care of business in the MSW. Great job as usual Steve on your analysis.
That’s a good point—with Bob B running interference with his three year olds (no points) it looks like this year it won’t take as many points to get in….and Churchill DOES play well for turfers—and Tiz The Bomb IS a real nice colt! Perhaps if he does well in the Jeff Ruby Steaks he could parlay the Tapeta wins to a Derby win—he’s a nice horse.
He’s a grass horse.
Churchill plays well for turf horses, as a rule….there’s only one chance at the Derby, I’m just commenting, it LOOKS like they might try to win the roses, he does have talent!
Could be.
The Bomb going to Epsom Derby after the Jeff Ruby.
1 Joep,
“Like you Steve I am eagerly awaiting the under the radar Commandperformance 3-year-old debut in a MSW at TB this weekend.”
You cannot be serious about your endorsement of Steve’s enthueasim regarding Commandperformance 3-year-old debut in a MSW.
The colt finished 2nd in the G1 Champagne and 4th in the G1 BCJ. He is almost certain to entered against overmatched opponents.
How can this likelihood generate excitement? Come on man!
Hi Coldfacts – I believe that CP is a way under the radar KY Derby prospect at this point. He is not even listed in KDFW4. He is running in a MSW this weekend. With that being said, IMO if he can regain that form that he displayed as a 2 yr. old to run a strong second to budding Star Jack Christopher in the Champagne then he would be on his way to fire a big shot in the Wood Memorial to gain derby points assuming he runs up to expectations in the MSW. The colts he faces should be way overmatched in the MSW if CP is fully healed from his shin issues and can carry his promising 2 yr. old form in his 3yr. old debut.
Pushing envelope?
Response for CF, lined up wrong.
Thanks for the write up. No mention of Golden Code ? He ran very well, and he’s also pointing for the Wood
Thanks Steve for list.
Yep, it sure looks like crapshoot this year….put the top half dozen or so horses’ names in a hat and pull them out one at a time and you might get arrive at the same outcome.
Most intriguing would be Lukas’ filly Secret Oath which would #7…heck, put her name in the hat as well.
Just read that the top Beyers of 2022 for three year old males is two Baffert horses….Messier (103) and now the Gun Runner colt Taiba who posted a 103 Beyer on Saturday at SA….perhaps the Preakness might be a goal for this horse now.
Great fun is some of the backstories, thanks for sharing! Forbidden Kingdom will effect the running of the KD then any other horse in the race. Mandella has said FK has more room to improve, so I would definitely have his ranking in the top 5-10. If Messier does not move barns prior to the SA derby, then none of Baffert’s horses will be moving to anyone with the projection being the Preakness, which would be the top 3 year old spring race.
No Preakness.