Derby Rankings: Week 8
With the top three separating themselves from the pack and the rest of them fairly equal at this time with a few new twists thrown in, it is best to expand the rankings again to a Sweet 16 until we know the true depth of this crop. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 8, Mar. 8
By Steve Haskin
1. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
Let’s look at the numbers this week. As I mentioned before the Fountain of Youth I was afraid that his “1” Thoro-Graph number in the Holy Bull might have been too fast too early and I wouldn’t have been discouraged at all by a slight regression. As it turned out he actually got another “1,” which was exactly what you want to see. By pairing up it showed that the Holy Bull didn’t take anything out of him. If he continues to follow his pattern of never taking a step backwards and pairing up a fast career best he will move forward in the Florida Derby and then just needs to maintain that number at Churchill Downs as he did in the Fountain of Youth. He wasn’t as sharp early as he was in the Holy Bull, which was understandable, and had to use an explosive closing kick to get the job done after looking hopelessly out of it. So we know from his last few races that he can engage in a stretch-long battle and won’t back down, he can run off from his opponents, and he can launch a huge late run. In other words, he can beat you in different ways.
2. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
Let’s continue looking at the speed ratings. His negative-1/2 in the Southwest on Thoro-Graph makes him the fastest 3-year-old so far and the only horse to run a negative number. Although his Brisnet figure of 98 was three points slower than his BC Juvenile, it was a big number to start off the year following a four-month layoff, and his triple-digit late pace figure shows that he can come home. I admit the most logical move was to rank him No. 1, but I am going to give Greatest Honour the edge on pedigree, partially because Essential Quality’s dam was a pure sprinter and his broodmare sire, with the exception of his freakish son Smarty Jones, is still a speed influence. As an old schooler I feel one of the problems with today’s bloodlines is too much inbreeding, and Essential Quality’s pedigree lights up like a Christmas tree of inbreeding. Not only is he inbred to five stallions, he is inbred four times to Mr. Prospector, three times to Secretariat, three times to Northern Dancer, and is also inbred to Fappiano and In Reality. Is that going to stop him from winning the Kentucky Derby, along with his paddling motion? Absolutely not; he definitely is the real deal. But for now I will give the slightest edge to the horse with the classic pedigree who has more bottom under him.
3. Life is Good (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
It’s very simple, this horse is just too fast for those horses and Baffert has been trying to harness his speed by working him alone and never asking too much of him. Once Medina Spirit took himself and The Great One out going wide into the first turn and Life is Good was able to quickly open an easy three-length lead from the rail the race was over. Even on cruise control, he still went the three-quarters in 1:10 2/5, which was two full seconds faster than they ran in the Big Cap. The only thing we need to see now is for him to realize these races are supposed to be competitive and he can’t have his mind wandering and be distracted so that he either falls asleep in the stretch, like in the Sham Stakes, or he drifts out to the middle of the track like he did in the San Felipe. He runs with his head high and as he began to get out turning for home his stride got just a tad sloppy for a second. But once he straightened out he just powered away all on his own to win by eight widening lengths and continued to open up past the wire despite drifting the entire length of the stretch and winding up closer to the outside rail than the inside galloping out. The question is, with only three career starts, can he get tougher mentally by the first Saturday in May and how will he react if some horse eyeballs him early or even outruns him, which I admit doesn’t seem likely? When a horse runs this fast this easily his opponents better hope he doesn’t want to go a mile and a quarter.
4. Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker)
After an easy half-mile breeze in :50 last week, he got back to serious works, drilling five furlongs in a bullet :59 1/5, fastest of 36 works at the distance. Last week we mentioned his strong Juddmonte Farms breeding, but when looking for stamina to go with Into Mischief on top, look no further than his having the strong classic/stamina influence His Majesty three times in his pedigree. If you’re not familiar with His Majesty, he is a full-brother to Graustark, both by the legendary Ribot, and a half-brother to Hall of Famer and two-time champion Bowl of Flowers winner of the Coaching Club American Oaks and Spinster Stakes. His Majesty was the leading sire in North America in 1982 and sire of 1981 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony, who also is a strong classic/stamina influence. Considering we have already seen Into Mischief sire a Kentucky Derby winner from a female family with not nearly as much stamina as Mandaloun, a mile and quarter should not pose any problem at all. And he has already looked strong going a mile and an eighth.
5. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
Eddie Woods, who gave him his early training at 2, remembers him as being a very classy colt who always showed potential. He didn’t have much speed but was a beautiful mover with a good mind. Going into his last race, a mile and an eighth allowance at Gulfstream, he had frustrated Pletcher with his recent disappointing efforts after showing so much promise. After running a decent “8” Thoro-Graph figure when he outgamed Greatest Honour going a mile and an eighth at Aqueduct last fall over an extremely slow track, he regressed to an “11” in his next two starts in the Remsen and Sam F. Davis Stakes. In the latter he inexplicably took himself completely out of the race and decided to run after it was way too late to even finish in the money. So a desperate Pletcher added blinkers and Lasix for his next start and he ran off the screen, winning by 11 lengths. To show that was no fluke, his jumped all the way to a “3 1/4″ Thoro-Graph number, putting himself right in the hunt. That was pretty much the same number that Mandaloun and Risk Taking ran in their stakes victories and faster that Derby contenders Caddo River, Medina Spirit, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon. Now he just has to build on that and not go backwards again.
6. Risk Taking (Chad Brown, Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
After this past weekend, Brown now has a trio of top-class 3-year-olds, but he still is the only one who has excelled going two turns and has a much stronger foundation under him. The big question with him is whether he is fast enough to compete with the horses we’ve seen the past two weekends. Although his Thoro-Graph numbers leaped from a “10 1/2” to a “3 1/4” in the Withers Stakes, his Brisnet speed figure dropped from a 98 to a 92. So you will just have to decide which one makes more sense. Also, the horse he ran down in the Withers, Capo Kane, who finished a strong third, was beaten more than 19 lengths in the Gotham Stakes. So you can see the questions that surround him. The reason he still is ranked high is his powerhouse pedigree, his toughness, and his ability to sustain a long run. I also liked how quickly he opened up in the last sixteenth to draw off by nearly four lengths. I am looking for continued improvement with two mile and an eighth races under him already.
7. Caddo River (Brad Cox, Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats)
He turned in his third consecutive strong five-furlong work at Fair Grounds, this time in 1:00 1/5. Now that he has gotten accustomed to his new home and obviously has taken a liking to the track, someone needs to tell him he has to return to Oaklawn for next week’s Rebel Stakes, where he will be facing graded stakes winners Concert Tour and Keepmeinmind and Sam F. Davis runner-up Nova Rags. With his natural speed and his ability to run his opponents into the ground, this will be a real test, trying to outrun the speedy Baffert-trained Concert Tour and holding off the late-closing Keepmeinmind. He has paired up a “4 1/4″ Thoro-Graph number in his last two starts after a five-point jump, so now he has to move forward several points to put him up there were some of the faster horses. If he wins this race and then stablemate Mandaloun wins the Louisiana Derby the week after, that will be three major Derby prep victories in four weeks for Cox, and he will go into April with one of the strongest Derby contingents in years.
8. Proxy (Mike Stidham, Tapit – Panty Raid, by Include)
If you like Mandaloun it’s hard not to like this horse, assuming the blinkers in which he has been working so sharply moves him up in the Louisiana Derby and helps him stay focused and keep a straight course in the stretch, something that may very well have cost him victories in the LeComte and Risen Star Stakes. Also, the new mile and three-sixteenths distance of the Louisiana Derby should help him. So with him it is all about projection and what we’re going to see on March 20. What you do have to like about him is the way he battled back in the final yards of his last two races to snatch second from Mandaloun and then Midnight Bourbon, finding his best stride after his erratic running in the stretch. If the blinkers do help as much as I believe they will, there is a good chance we’re going to see a different horse next time out.
9. Helium (Mark Casse, Ironicus – Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
This has nothing to do with being a prisoner of the moment. The truth is I am totally in awe of what this colt did in the Tampa Bay Derby and I am fascinated, yet torn about his immediate future. In a year like this with three standouts on top, everyone else looks pretty similar except this colt because of the mystery surrounding how good he is and how much meaning you can put in his freakish performance. Here is a horse who had never gone two turns, had never run on dirt, and hadn’t run in 4 1/2 months due to Woodbine canceling because of snow, then Covid closing the track, and then suffering a wrenched ankle while pointing for a return at Fair Grounds. Now in a Grade 2 race, he is forced six-wide going into the first turn, is still six-wide around the turn and down the backstretch, makes a huge sweeping move five-wide on the far turn, going from 10th to the lead, cuts the corner beautifully, dropping down to the rail, gets caught by the 3-1 second choice Hidden Stash inside the eighth pole, and battles back to actually draw clear to win by three-quarters of a length. Even Casse wasn’t expecting anything like this. He said in his 40-plus years of training he has had few “Wow” moments, but this definitely was one of them. On top of that he said the colt didn’t take a deep breath after coming back. So what are we dealing with? What I am torn about is that I’m not sure what he was beating and Casse said he is leaning toward going straight to the Kentucky Derby, bucking history on several counts (what else is new?). If you’re concerned about his low Beyer speed figure, remember that does not take into account ground loss and he easily had to run a mile and an eighth. So I need to let all this sink in and see what we’re dealing with.
10. Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens, Pioneerof the Nile – Sunday Affair, by A.P. Indy)
Here is another head scratcher regarding a horse who did something he shouldn’t have done. I commented in Week 1 that this horse, with his pedigree, is going to improve big-time going two turns, but to do what he did in a tough Gotham field was pretty extraordinary considering he had his whole schedule disrupted by hoof problems and then was supposed to run in an allowance race on the Gotham undercard only to have the race not fill. So Jerkens had no recourse but to throw him to the wolves going a flat-mile against several proven stakes horses. To battle back in the stretch the way he did to stick his nose in front at the wire was pretty impressive. In his first three generations alone he has three Kentucky Derby winners, two Preakness winners, three Belmont winners, three Breeders’ Cup Classic winners, a Kentucky Derby runner-up, and an Alabama winner who produced a Filly Triple Crown winner and Hall of Famer. Going into his fourth generation you will find an American and English Triple Crown winner. What makes this pedigree so special is that Jerkens’ father, the legendary Allen Jerkens, trained the aforementioned Filly Triple Crown winner Sky Beauty, who Jimmy was around and knows very well. This horse assuredly will be made a late nominee to the Triple Crown, and as I said in Week 1, I can’t wait to see what this colt can do going two turns.
11. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, Laoban – Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
All he needs is a fast-closing second in the Rebel to move back up the rankings. We finally are going to get to see the Kentucky Jockey Club winner’s long-awaited debut after two postponements of the Southwest Stakes. With no training at Oaklawn because of track conditions, Diodoro opted to wait two more weeks for Rebel. He tried to make Keepmeinmind feel good by telling him, “You should be happy; now you just have to run down Caddo River and Concert Tour instead of trying to outrun Essential Quality, so it’s not all bad.” Keepmeinmind went out and worked five furlongs in 1:02 1/5, coming home his final eighth in :12 2/5 before galloping out three-quarters in 1:16. Diodoro just wanted jockey David Cohen to keep him relaxed early because he can get a little tough and he did just that. With eight works this year, you can’t say he won’t be fit. Right now, I just want to see that patented late run and for him be close at the finish and then he can be ready for a big performance in the Arkansas Derby.
12. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
His big hope right now is that, like his his sire, he is going to keep getting better. Whether he will be near his peak in the Kentucky Derby is another matter, as Tiznow didn’t develop until later in his 3-year-old campaign. But this colt is more precocious, breaking his maiden at a mile last August, and has never been out of the money in six career starts. He is on a very similar Thoro-Graph pattern as Caddo River, pairing up an “8” and then basically pairing up a “5.” He will need to improve four or five points in the Louisiana Derby to put himself in position to win the Kentucky Derby. There is not much separating him, Mandaloun, and Proxy.
13. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
I don’t know how far he wants to go, but in my mind he turned in the most under-the-radar performance of the week. Following a four-month layoff, he had a dreadful trip in the Gotham Stakes. He was crowded at the start with Wipe the Slate constantly coming in on him and actually forcing him off the straightaway and onto the turn at the gap. He had to steady and regroup and then was boxed in most of the way. He finally was able to fan five wide turning for him, but shied from a left-handed whip, moving out several paths and losing some of his momentum. Once he came back in, he leveled off and was striding out well in the final sixteenth, while narrowing the margin on the first two. He is another who hasn’t been two turns yet, so his next start will tell us all we need to know about him.
14. Concert Tour, (Bob Baffert, Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit)
We’ll know for sure what we’re dealing with when he ships to Oaklawn for Saturday’s Rebel Stakes and his two-turn debut. He turned in a monster work, breaking about 10 lengths behind a workmate, cut to inside turning for home, and drew away to finish three lengths in front before galloping out strong, completing the six furlongs in a bullet 1:11 2/5. Baffert has been saying for a while he is one of his best 3-year-olds despite having had only a pair of sprints in his career. He is bred for distance, so we should expect a big performance from him in the Rebel.
15. Hidden Stash (Victoria Oliver, Constitution – Making Mark Money, by Smart Strike)
On the surface it looked like he had Helium measured in the Tampa Bay Derby and should have gone by him, but couldn’t finish the job and let him come back and beat him. But he gets a pass because he was a total run off before the race and was out of control tearing around there along the rail throwing his head around wildly. He finally had to be grabbed by the outrider. That had to take a lot out of him, so he can be excused for not finishing off Helium, especially with the winner coming out twice and brushing with him. The negative aspect of running off is that he did it, and you have to wonder why. You certainly don’t want to see that again, especially on Derby Day. The fact is he has been on the board in all six of his races with his only fourth coming in his career debut last August. He did finally change leads, which is encouraging, so we’ll give him another chance.
16. Medina Spirit, (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
Well, at least you can say he’s the only horse ever to get close to Life is Good. You have to wonder now how good the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was, with him and Roman Centurian getting trounced by Life is Good. He’s still a hard-knocking consistent colt who tries all the time and will win his shares of races. The problem Baffert has is figuring out where to run him next. I would doubt he’ll try the “beast” again. If he goes out of town at least he’ll be able to run his own race. But Baffert says he’s a lightly made colt, so we’ll have to see how he handles shipping.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
On several occasions I have mentioned DYNAMIC ONE as my hidden gem and my super maiden sleeper. Well, he finally got that maiden win out of the way, but he’s still my sleeper. Granted, he didn’t beat much and they ran very slow over a deep and tiring track, but he trudged his way through it to defeat a highly touted Chad Brown colt by 5 1/4 lengths, and his final fractions of :24 4/5 and :13 were good enough on that track. His time for the mile and an eighth was a sluggish 1:55 1/5, but let’s remember that Greatest Honour and Known Agenda went in 1:55 4/5 last fall at Aqueduct, and he just shipped up to New York from Florida and was not used to such a dramatic change in surfaces. He certainly will get fit after this race. He already demonstrated his explosive turn of foot in his last race, in which he was six-wide on the first turn, lost a shoe, and came back with some mucus in his lungs. So this was a piece of cake and should springboard him to bigger and better things. If you are a fan of the Phipps breeding, how about this colt’s tail-female line having Easy Goer, Personal Ensign, Numbered Account, Buckpasser, My Flag, Storm Flag Flying, Relaxing, and Private Account.
Dynamic One wasn’t the only impressive maiden winner for Todd Pletcher over the weekend. He also sent out the Nyquist colt UNTREATED, who destroyed his field at Tampa Bay Downs, winning off by 8 3/4 lengths going two turns for the first time. Racing four-wide into the turn, he settled back in seventh and when jockey Luis Saez asked him he demonstrated an explosive turn of foot and was in front in a flash. He continued to draw away under a hand ride and could not have kept a straighter path the length of the stretch. He keeps his legs under him perfectly and has the look of a classy, professional colt and we’ll just have to see what he does against far better horses. But visually this was a flawless performance. Who knows, maybe he’ll be my sleeper. Pletcher doesn’t have any big names so far, but he sure has several who could burst on the scene in a hurry. This colt sold for $550,000 as a yearling and raced in one sprint for Chad Brown and the Estate of Paul Pompa, showing little. Shortly after he was sold at the Pompa dispersal and went for only $300,000 to Team Valor, which could turn out to be quite a bargain thanks to that poor debut. Watch out for this guy.
CROWDED TRADE – Coming off only one six-furlong sprint in his career, he either is an exceptional colt to run that big a race in the Gotham or that was not a strong race in general. The 95 Beyer suggests it likely is the former. But this is a year with so many huge performances by lightly raced horses we really don’t know what to make of it all. Times indeed are changing.
DREAM SHAKE – He ran well to finish third in the San Felipe, but really had little chance coming off one maiden sprint. He should build on this and we can look forward to bigger and better things from him. If you’re looking for another positive, Law Professor, who he beat by 18 lengths in his maiden win, came back to break his maiden by 2 1/2 lengths going a mile at 20-1. The horse who finished second to Law Professor, Harbored Memories, had previously finished second to Dream Shake, so two horses have come out of that maiden race to run big.
HOT ROD CHARLIE – He also is coming off the Robert Lewis, so all we can do is wait for the Louisiana Derby to see just where he fits. He did take all the worst of it in that race so he still may have a say in the Derby picture. He did turn in a solid six-furlong work in 1:14.
ROMAN CENTURIAN – He never had a prayer in the San Felipe and all he could do was plod home for fourth and just wait now for the distances to stretch out and get some speed up front to use his staying power and late kick.
THE GREAT ONE — As mentioned earlier, any chance he had to run with Life is Good early was taken away when Medina Spirit carried him wide going into the first turn. But even so, his 16 3/4-length drubbing was puzzling to his connections. You always have to wonder how a horse will react coming off first-time Lasix, a 14-length win, and a monster Thoro-Graph jump. So we’re back to square one as to how good he really is. He will get another chance in three weeks when he ships to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby.
OVERTOOK – He had a brief stay in the Top 12, but with all the action since his Withers second he must earn his way back up there and show everyone he’s not just a plodder. He just had an easy half-mile breeze this week in :50 3/5
ROMBAUER – He is a consistent closer and handles all three surfaces, but his Thoro-Graph numbers were the second slowest of the 23 horses in the Future Wager, so he will need to get faster in a hurry. I did like is five-furlong work in a sharp 1:00 flat.
As if Godolphin doesn’t have enough good horses in the U.S., they added another potential Derby horse when their homebred HIGHLAND AVENUE won the Road to the Kentucky Derby Conditions Stakes over the Polytrack at Kempton Race Course in England. The son of Dubawi, who is bred for the grass, now has two victories and a second in three career starts. The next European Derby prep was Friday’s Patton Stakes at Dundalk Race Course in Ireland, which is also on an all-weather track. That turned out to be a an unexpected result when the Joseph O’Brien-trained 5-4 favorite Messidor was upset by stablemate MY GENERATION, a Kentucky-bred Speightstown filly with only a third-place finish in a maiden race to her credit. Not only did she win at odds of 11-2, she drew off in the final furlong to score by five lengths. Did we possibly find an Oaks filly hiding in a Derby prep?
One performance in the Fountain of Youth that got overlooked was the fourth-place finish of TARANTINO, who got shoved out going into the first turn and lost a ton of ground, then raced wide for most of the race, but kept battling and was beaten only 5 1/4 lengths. Trainer Rudy Brisset said he came out of the race in good shape and with two victories and a nose defeat on grass he will now point for the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and try the Polytack, as many grass horses do.
Another under-appreciated performance that day was by SPIELBERG, whose fastest Thoro-Graph number had been an “8,” with his previous race being a “9.” Whether it was the slop or just finding a track he loved, his number in the Southwest catapulted to a “1,” which was the second-fastest of the year behind only the victorious Essential Quality. That can be attributed to his terrible start, dropping back to last, and racing very wide into the first turn and wide on the second turn. He’s been up and down his entire career, and we’ll see what Baffert has planned for him next.
The spectacular maiden winner PREVALENCE, who was forced to miss the Fountain of Youth when he came down with a bug and was forced to miss his final work, had his second work back, drilling a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on Friday. Needless to say things are getting desperately tight if he is to have any bchance of making the Derby even with only three career starts. If trainer Brendan Walsh can’t get a race in him in the next week would Godolphin, who already has two major Derby contenders, push this promising colt to try to make the race with such little foundation under him when he has such a bright future?
Last week we touted two lightly raced colts who have shown a great deal of promise. One of them, SOUP AND SANDWICH, did not get a strong Thoro-Graph figure in his last start, running a “ 9 3/4″ following a strong “6” in his debut. But part of that can be attributed to his greenness, ducking in and changing leads three times. I have no doubt he will get faster as he matures, but will it be fast enough to be competitive in the Florida Derby? On the other hand, NICKY THE VEST went from an “8” in his debut to a “4” in the Gander Stakes, and he should continue to improve based on everything we’ve seen so far. I don’t care that he’s been facing New York-breds, this colt is a flat out runner.
American Pharoah Stakes winner GET HER NUMBER continues to impress in his long workouts, as he drilled six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 at San Luis Rey Downs for his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes. BROOKLYN STRONG continues to work, breezing a half in :48 4/5 at Laurel. Even in today’s racing, he just seems too far behind to make the Derby without doing something totally unconventional and illogical.
KEEPMEINMIND was well supported. His deep closing trip was as his custom for such an abbreviated affair. I expect some natural genetic challenges from him and other qualified horses to current assumptions as they’re ultimately involved in our anticipated Spring test at classic distance. This crop may seem deeper than most currently consider as the metrics of ‘season, time and distance’ come to bear before Sunset May 1st.
The anticipated pace battle never happened, Keepmeinmind entered the backstretch wide and in last place he had no chance
The way Greatest Honour cruises along late in races reminds me of how FuPeg ran……Life is Good took me a long time to come up with a similar horse, but he reminds me some of JO Tobin…..head up, bears out I was ontrack in 1978, bet on JO Tobin in the Hollywood Gold Cup, watched him losing his lead and bearing out to the far outside late….not saying LIG is going to run like that AM saying that less than 2 months out and I am with you on Greatest Honour….
Bears Watching bears watching.
Big lake got screwed! Would have finished second if not getting whiped out down the stretch. Still finished strong though. Deserves a Knocking on the door status.
Big Lake did run a good race, and if Santana would have kept his inside rail position at the 1/4 pole, the rail opened up and he would have avoided the trouble and easily been second.
Let’s face reality. If Mr.Haskin got $1M to bet on only one horse to win. I bet he would put it on his #3 horse over his #1&2. But I understand his rankings, but let’s face it, Life is Good is on a different level.
If things stay the same (and they rarely do), I think he’d bet Greatest Honour because (a) GH is his #1 and (b) GH will be much higher in odds.
he’d bet his #1 horse to win the Derby….
Caddo River found out the difference between a grade 1 animal versus the also rans he’s been facing.. Where does he go from here? Certainly didn’t qualify for any derby including the Arkansas. I would pull the plug and rest him for the summer races…
Ranking top 4 is pretty easy as far as I’m concerned: LIG, CT, GH, and EQ
CT BSF 105….
I’d like to think Caddo isn’t done. I’d run him in a big prep is I could get in and see if they can get him to relax and stalk rather than be intent on leading. He wasn’t used to not getting an easy lead and cruising to victory. If he is doing well why not give him another shot. It is a long ways to summer races, he can regroup after the final prep if need be. He may not be good enough but I’m not entirely convinced yet. He wasn’t relaxed.
But the reason he didn’t get the lead was because he couldn’t get the lead. Pretty sure he’s not going to be given a chance for the Derby. Can you remember the last horse to win a Derby that finished off the board in one of the last two preps? Pleasant Colony 40 years ago in his next-to-last prep. Maybe CR has the Preakness in his near future.
Thought Caddo River bumped the 3rd place finisher into Get Her Number–thought there should have had an inquiry and NOTHING—winner looked good, Caddo was right there at the clubhouse turn but rider decided he wanted outside–just as Rosario was slowing down the pace with the winner–and it was over by the time they turned up the backstretch–nice horse. He’s moving up on the Haskin scale—maybe even to #2???…….
CR definitely impeded GHN. I was waiting for an objection. But GHN finished 7th, so why bother. I predict Concert Tour to be #4 in Steve’s rankings.
Yeah. It was Big Lake that got the worst of it. He was bumped off stride by CR, then Big Lake bumped GHN. Big Lake was moving well when the incident occurred and recovered nicely.
No surprise Caddo River nowhere when up against superior Baffert speed. Derby continues to look like Baffert vs the World. And the World hasn’t done well in the past and is up against this year again.
Yeah, Baffert’s incredible run just keeps on going, just amazing to me.
Reminds me of the amazing run of Lance Armstrong.
Not implying anything at all, just that was the feeling I got with Armstrong’s run, astonishing, it felt kind of unreal like how could this be happening. How could one person be so superior to everyone else? Does anyone know the answer, why Baffert seems to be so superior?
Bob has the deep pocket owners–but even when he only had his friends with money–Bob brought Cavonnier to within a nose of the roses….the Triple Crown is what Bob does, his focus is on THAT–and he’s the best at that.
He got caught juicing his horses last year, after multiple big races including the Oaks and other graded races. Guy plays by his own rules. Ever notice how quickly his horses are off the track? Pharoah and Arrogate were legit, others all suspicious beyond belief. How many of these superstars have become good stallions besides Pharoah?
I was disappointed that neither Keepmeinmind nor Get Her Number fired at all. What does it say about the field in the Rebel when the second and third finishers were recent maiden/allowance winners?
Like many other preps, the field looked better before the race than after. For K and GHN, maybe the layoffs are to blame. For K, there was also the missed training. Whatever the reason, there was only one Derby horse crossing the finish line today.
Absolutely right. After most preps only the winner is the only valid contender. Maybe the second place finisher as well but in the Rebel Hozier might be be one to use underneath providing he has another positive race. Has Baffert in his corner.
Mary Ellen, people forget that these are developing 3 year olds, not seasoned 5 year olds. Some improve quite quickly while others are on a slow burn. That’s the gamble. Next out, Keepmeinmind or Get Her Number might put in sparkling performances.
Looks as though Bob Baffert has another potential star in Triple Tap. Impressive on debut.
Has the same gorgeous stride as his brother. He really gets down low and reaches out with great extension. Can you imagine the difference in this year’s Derby if it was run again in September with so many exciting late developing horses
You’re right, Steve. So smooth and perfect temperament, good for Summer Wind.
Not to be picky, but Super Stock did not win his last race. He has finished in the money in 5 out of 6 career starts, which makes him a legitimate contender to finish in the super. I’m convinced the race will be won by either Caddo River or Concert Tour. I’ll key those two on top, in the first two slots, with Get Her Number, Twilight Blue, Keepmeinmind and Super Stock underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
1,7/ 1,7/ 4,5,6,8/ 4,5,6,8. There’s always a chance for an upset, so I’ll flip that over and key my underneath horses on top in the first two slots, with Caddo River and Concert Tour underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. 4,5,6,8/ 4,5,6,8/ 1,7/ 1,7.
Safe trips to all.
Who mentioned Super Stock?
Eddie F mentioned that all the Rebel starters had won last out — not you, Steve!
If people are replying to someone they should do so on that thread. If they start a new thread they should address the person they are responding to to avoid confusion.
I apologize with all my heart…and several other internal organs.
Hello Steve, good to see that Proxy drew PP4 in a field of 8 for the LA Derby. Proxy should be more focused with blinkers and hopefully will run straight in the stretch to pull the mild upset with Johnny V. in the irons. Proxy is very tactical and should appreciate the added distance and get a great ground saving trip. Glad to have him at 41-1 in KDFW4. I would imagine that Johnny V. would stick with Proxy over Medina Spirit in the KY Derby if Proxy can win the LA Derby.
If Proxy wins, no way Johnny V goes off him to ride Medina Spirit. Great ticket at 41-1.
LA Derby- O Besos drops back this time and makes a ferocious run to nail them all at the wire. O Besos is underrated.
Porgy and Besos.
Good one.
Two of my horses of interest illuminated the tote board last Saturday and are now in the top 12. My boy Rombauer got a mention. He is a probable for the LA Derby but I am likely going jump ship for the likely winner Run Classic.
I expect Twilight Blue to track either Caddo River or Concert Tour and prove strongest in the lane. In fact, if TB out breaks the field he could make all. Crazier results have unfolded.
The Rebel has a really nice field. All 8 horses won their last race. Four of them have won or performed well in graded stakes. One other won a listed stakes at the track last out in impressive fashion. But all runners have question marks. Both Caddo River and Concert Tour will likely be less than 2-1. What are the chances that neither of the co-favorites will win? I think the chances are better than most think. I’ll probably bet Keepmeinmind to win, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Get Her Number or Super Stock in the exacta.
Three horses in the top 12, changes likly. We should have some wild new additions to the Rankings next week, all of which no one can guess. Going a bit wild next week, get some new blood in there.
Wild and crazy!
I like 4 colts in particular and none of them is Life is Good. Do your best, Steve.
But you know Steve….he spiked a fever and they’re running him fairly soon after that–it sure LOOKS like they are trying for the Derby—and yes, Godolphin cares about it’s stock–but they also want to win the derby–am NOT saying he SHOULD be trying for the Derby–I’m saying that to me it looks like they are trying for that-…
Not denying it, just saying I dont think they would overrule Walsh if he said he didnt want to. They obviously are or they wouldnt be running him in a major Derby prep next time out.
Stop with the Prevalence talk…….not a derby horse…….why is every horse that wins a derby horse?…….why would you run him in a grade 1? forget the derby…..86 beyer?…..the connections can’t be this dumb…..i bet trainer doesnt want to…
Why would the connections be dumb when they already have Essential Quality and Proxy on the Derby trail. If Brendan Walsh doesnt want to run him, there is no way Godolphin would say yes.
Is that not what i said?….i doubt trainer would…….he usually is smart……..dumb because they might ruin him……
When you structure your comments without any sentences you have to expect people not to read it the way you intended it.
“no…..i’m am not a numbers player…..you just are ignorant to what i do,…….”
LOL
No, im not a numbers player……the horse is not fast……beyers are the #1 ratings when people talk about how fast a race is……..why do you think i cant use them to point out how fast a race is?…….do you want me to just give the time?…..it was slow race…..i posted before the numbers came out, he wasnt a derby horse…..i knew it was slow…..
There is a big diffeence between how fast a horse runs and how fast a race is. If youre interested in the horse you have take the trip into consideration which is why the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin numbers are the most accurate and why they cost so much. They Beyers are based in good part on what the other horses are supposed to run.
I’m not saying the horse should or should not be in the Derby. I was pointing out your inconsistent comments.
Why? They just ran the horse, it looks like he’s heading for a stakes, why can’t a person talk about him? Doesn’t mean I think he’s going to win the Derby, doesn’t mean I think they SHOULD be trying for the Derby—but why say STOP? He just ran…
Let’s name everyone then…….these arguments are weak………people think these horses running 86’s are derby horses……
Check out my new blog about Secretariat, memories, and memorabilia, and two kids from Brooklyn, NY. Hint: one of them is me.
Great read on a rainy Sunday afternoon, Thanks Steve!
KEEPMEINMIND makes his quite return to our game in the Rebel. He may travel to Lexington and the Bluegrass for his final reveal after this, but he’s a colt of multiple significant quantities that combine bearing one’s respect on Saturday.
Triple Tap has a lot of hype behind him for obvious reasons, is he as good as the whispers? Must admit I’m excited to see this colt run.
I assume this is a Baffert colt judging by the fast works. Sure cant beat the pedigree. Do you know who owns the horse?
Jane Lyon’s Summer Wind Farm. I found a nice article with outstanding photos and video from about 2 years ago at the TDN site. Just google the article title, “At Summer Wind, It’s Always Triple Crown Season”.
Got it. Thanks
With 4-5 odds at Santa Anita in a maiden race for a first time starter more or less screams Baffert. Summer Wind have bred quite a few horses that Baffert has had success with Game Winner, McKinzie, Chasing Yesterday, and Magic On Tap to name a few. Hopefully, Triple Tap will join the above.
I have a little future wager on Rombauer at 109-1. He came in second in the G-1 American Pharoah, finishing in front of Spielberg. In the Breeders Cup he ran a decent 5th against the best 2-year-olds, then won his 3-year-old debut,after a three month layoff, with a last to first move in the El Camino Derby. Has pedigree power if you like RAN sire line.
You cant beat those odds. He just needs to get faster. Good luck with it.
Godolphin may be hustling him along—they want more speed in the Kentucky Derby and who wouldn’t? Maybe this horse might be the one who can push LIG early, or perhaps it’s Caddo River who can do that–but Godolphin would certainly hustle this guy into a big points race, they want IN!
Result chart notes say he “…widened through the stretch under a mild drive, then was urged to continue on for an eighth of a mile or so after the finish.”
Agree; Goldophin will utilize Prevalence as a rabbit to soften up LIG. We will see if that strategy works since LIG will be ratable in 60 days….
I dont see that at all. Not Godolphin’s style to use another trainer’s horse as a rabbit, especially one with such a bright future and who rated back in fifth in his last start.
guess I should’ve watched the race before commenting, he is a nice animal, with a small but beautiful head, I expect his next start will be vs better and I think he has big upside!
It’s asking a lot of him
PREVALENCE now seems touted to join the fray after his second GP win today… I however have my doubts about him as GP’s Peter Aiello, who apparently includes continuous subjective chart comments with his performance stated PREVALENCE was “under light encouragement”as he finish his trip. That might suggest there’s more ability to be found in the colt but I’ll let others support that notion.
Prevalence looked pretty good! Where to now??
My strong guess is the Arkansas Derby. 4 weeks to that race, 3 weeks to the Wood. Depends on where they want the 3 weeks — now or going into the Derby. I really like the way he rated this time.
Getting a late start on the trail just makes it so tough, they’ll get one shot to get the points, so there’s no room for error, gotta make it count. Love this time of year!
Steve, wouldn’t it be a good idea for the folks at the Secretariat site to promote your March 27 forum directly on your Rankings page each week until it fills?
I dont know where he would promote it. I promoted it in the comments, but I leave all that to Leonard. There is not better promoter anywhere. I dont get involved with that. I believe we have at least 45 people so far and thats plenty for a Zoom.
Wow! That’s a great number already! I was thinking that an “ad” at the top of the Rankings and again just before the Comments section would be helpful, but I guess there’s no need. Looking forward to the forum!
It’s more important to promote it on the main page to the thousands of people who come on the website than the few people that come on my column, make one comment and dont come back. I aways try to respond to as many people as I can, but I never know if they ever return to read it. Also, the non regulars who do comment usually do so on Monday and Tuesday and maybe some on Wednesday, but by Thursday it’s mostly only the regulars.
BTW tomorrow there will be an Askin Haskin column, the first in months.
How about a teaser? 🙂
I’m in it and so is a famous horse.
Hmmm…The time you and Secretariat went to a ballgame at Yankee Stadium and Big Red caught a game-winning home run ball hit by Bobby Murcer? You don’t have to answer.
Not that far off. Lol. Most of the column is about another person, then me.
Loved your Invasor story and the nice time you had in Uruguay. I’ve never been to Uruguay, but to Argentina a couple of times, and can say it was the same experience you had. Being a non vegetarian helped me though!! Such a cool part of the world down there.
Keepmeinmind/Hozier ex box…with those two in separate tri boxes with Caddo River and Concert Tour…I think the timing is right for a horse like Hozier to try graded stakes—everyone of the favorites has had some kind of training delay—and his two-turn maiden race was a big improvement–and was recent.
with exception of Concert Tour—who has had no training break—and is trying 2-turns—and even his trainer does not know what to expect, he might like him but he doesn’t know about 2-turns on Concert Tour–he does know about his 12-1 shot Hozier.
In your opinion, which track or which prep creates an experience closest to Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby?
Nothng exactly like CD, but the best most friendly surface seems to be Oaklawn and the Arkansas Derby.
Hi Steve, great insights as usual! Did you happen to notice Moonlite Strike in the Tampa Bay Derby? I thought he ran a tough 3rd fighting every step. 34-1 yet. His last 4 works were lights out. Your thoughts?
He did run a good race. I’ve been following his works. He could be OK. We’ll see where he goes next.
The individual forums are now open to reserve a spot. Mine is the third one down of the three. Just click on “order.”
Just registered! I guess that Leeanne is partial to Essential Quality for all of his Secretariat blood. 🙂
Secretariat is all over the place mostly thru those same two super mares and then Secrettame
Hi Steve, do you know if the Derby is a target for Cazadero? I see he is nominated for the Bluegrass, he had a bullet at the Fairgrounds, loves Churchill.
I dont see how it can be unless he runs this weekend. His last work was huge, but he hasnt run in 7 months and hasnt been farther than 6 1/2 furlongs. He would have run a big race going 2 turns right now to be ready for the Aarkansas Derby. So far I havent seen him in the entries.
Thanks, there are plenty of races other than the Derby, I’m sure Asmussen will put him in the right spots.
Steve, I have followed you for years. Your writing, insight, and love for the sport make you put you at the very top of the field, and one no Derby season is complete without, no matter what publication you are writing for. Please keep it up!! What do you think about the decision to put Essential Quality in the Bluegrass versus other preps? Which track is the most like Churchill Downs as far as surface, stretch, etc? I don’t see the Bluegrass as being a prep that has produced a lot of Derby winners like other preps including the Santa Anita and the Florida Derby. What are your thoughts?
Thank you so much, Judy. That is very kind of you. I can see them going there because he already won the Breeders’ Futurity there and he wouldnt have to ship to New york or Arkansas. However, what you say about the race is true. The last Blue Grass winner to win the Derby was Strike the Gold 30 years ago. The Keeneland surface and Churchill are very different and there are horses who run well at Keenland and dont at Churchill . Only two or three Ashland winners in the last several decades have won the Ky. Oaks. But every year is different and you just have to hope your horse can end the trend and excel at both tracks.
If anyone is interested in handicapping the Florida Derby and talking about the Kentucky Derby and shaing your opinions , you can sign up for the virtual forum as part of the Secretariat Birthday Festival that will be hosted by me. It will done on Zoom and you can interact with other racing fans and talk Kentucky Derby and that day’s Florida Derby for 50 minutes. It will be on Saturday March 27 at 3 p.m. and the cost is $15. You can check out all the details on ths website.
Looks great, Steve. Ticket purchase for the forum doesn’t seem to be available yet (only the All Access pass is available now). Thanks!
Goes on sale today. I dont know what time but I’ll find out. https://www.secretariat.com/secretariat-birthday-celebration-2021/
Goes on sale today. Shoud be soon. I’ll find out when
Goes on sale at 11 a.m.
Thanks!
Sounds good to me. PS, since all that nonsense with Dina is over with and she was outed for what she was doing, can you get back on twitter? I was one who believed her and got fleeced for donations, but time has passed and I am sorry you got caught up in that.
Thanks but I dont miss Twitter, got turned off by it, and it would seem stupid to start over from zero when I had around 20,000 followers. BTW the forums are now open on the main page to reserve a spot. Just scroll down to the third forum and click on “order” Hope to see you there.
Done!
Hey everyone…..Wanna see a race horse?…………..YOUTUBE………SEA THE SHELLS….debut winner…….wow….
You’re welcome
you neglected to say it was 1 3/16 miles.
Impressive! But that was the worst start of a race I’ve ever seen! The starter must have had a few pints between races.
That’s a race horse. Yep. Thank you.
why does Spielberg remind me of Spumoni?
My Generation connections said they are targeting the Irish Oaks and not interested in coming here.
Tapit sure has a strong chance of getting his W in a KD this year!
Remind you in what way? Who is Spumoni? You mean they sound alike, the director reminds you of Italian ice cream?
I think that Spielberg the horse’s color may remind Diana of one layer of spumoni. If Diana is referring to the director Spielberg, then she probably knows him a lot better than we do.
This is what happens when I write comments after being up too long :O It’s more than a little like being drunk, minus all the actual drinking.
Solomini *face palm* (Starry Spumoni was a really nice Arabian gelding we used to show against. Nothing against the director but its been a long time since I’ve been much into movies)
I loved Helium’s race as well as Mandaloun. The downside to the former is that horses that win at Tampa Bay Downs don’t perform well in the Derby. The sandy surface there is so completely different than Churchill. Would like his next prep to be the Arkansas or Blue Grass. Mandaloun got away fast and stayed out of trouble with Proxy in the Risen Star. Will enjoy going longer and his racing style should keep him close to the pace.
Street Sense?
Steve, Galerio two black type efforts, two second place results, third coming this Saturday at Laurel , believe he will WIN!!! So proud of him, I know my dad certainly is, bought the DAM for a dollars, Congaree Princess!!! You are such a talent Steve , you bring the story truly to life, just outstanding!!!!
Thank you very much, Dan. I really appreciiate the kind words. You have to be happy with how consistent Galerio is and he’s just getting good now. I wish you the best of luck with him. I’ll be watching the Saturday results.
This is great stuff!
Rock Your World—bred by MacAnally—owns the mare Charm the Giant—breeds them all to Candy Ride–I think but am not certain the breedeng service is gratis–having trained Candy Ride I think they get one mating per year and their mare has done just fine, all of them–full siblings–are beautiful.
Just wanted to say…I’m loving the Derby conversations. Thanks to Steve and to all his devoted followers.
You’re a major part of it.
That’s nice of you to say, Steve. This forum is truly a rarity in the Internet age. Respectful and intelligent discussion led by a Hall of Fame racing writer. It’s a gift.
I appreciate it Eddie. I couldnt and wouldnt do it if it werent for the people who comment and make thngs interesting. Lot of racing smart people on here
Steve, you are also a very fine teacher for those of us who are not “racing smart people,” but would like the option to become one. Thank you.
List looks good to me. Life is Good is a seriously fast horse. He was very impressive. If
Baffert can get him to focus and not veer off, he should be the favorite. He might be
anyway. Essential Quality is fast but not sure he is that fast. Greatest Honour, as you noted,
can win several different ways but not sure he is as fast either. Both might need help
to beat him.
Weyburn and Helium both ran great races and Helium was wide, which made it even
more impressive. This weekend we get to see 3 more possibilities. But if Life is Good
gets away without a serious challenge and a
good trip, it could be all over. I think it is exciting that we have so many good horses that
are real contenders this year and so far they are all uninjured-knock on wood.
I have no doubt that Baffert will fix the wondering with LIG before the derby. The horse definitely won’t have any excuses considering his trainer and his jockey. Something tells me that another Baffert horse will show up big as well.
I like all of the Big 3 and I think Steve has a great assessment on each. Looking forward to the rest of the prep season. Have they announced how many fans can attend the Derby this year?
At present, between 40 – 50% reserved seating.
Will be interesting to see how the derby horses react to their first experiences to a real live, noisy crowd. Although didn’t Baffert stuff Justify’s ears with cotton? Or was it AP?
That was American Pharoaah.
And you didn’t even have to look it up! Thanks, Davids.
I heard Life is Good reacted to the extra people from last Saturday’s San Felipe saddling…
LIG reaction to people sure made him not perform. 🙂
Authentic, in the Haskell, at least.
Colts with quirky temperaments and odd behavior don’t have a good record of winning the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Not for me.
Thank You!
Inbreeding and the Kentucky Derby …
Steve’s comments about the inbreeding overload in Essential Quality pedigree made me go back to the inbreeding stats I had collated since 1970.
Commonly Derby winners show inbreeding at generational distances of 4×4 or farther. You would see that far names like Blenheim, Pharos and even Ultimus. Then the torch went to Nasrullah, Mahmoud, Sir Gallahad, Bull Dog and Bull Lea as the most recurrent sires earlier.
For the last 51 years there have been only 4 Kentucky Derby winners with no inbreeding within their first five generations: Secretariat, Lil E Tee, Holy Bull and War Emblem.
The following Derby victors show at least one (1) sire repeated in their third generation: Bold Forbes, Spectacular Bid, Real Quiet, Summer Squall, Fusaichi Pegasus, Mine that Bird, Orb, California Chrome, Justify and Country House.
It is unavoidable to see repetitions of dominant sires of sires like Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer.
As a sample, out of the last 10 Derby winners, 5 show 4×5 or 5×5 inbreed to Northern Dancer (Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another, American Pharoah, Nyquist and Always Dreaming). Five (5) Derby winners show repetition of Mr. Prospector: I’Ll Have Another, Orb, California Chrome, Justify and Country House.
It is noteworthy that American Pharoah, Nyquist and Always Dreaming do not have inbreeding within their first four generations; and Authentic got only a 5 x 4 Inbreed to Icecapade.
Coming back to the current Derby prospects, you can see that among the 16 top ranked horses and the 18 mentioned in the KOTD segment, only two horses (the European based filly My Generation and Prevalence) do not have a repetition of Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer in their first five generations.
I love the fact that EQ ‘s descends from the legendary 1x family (La Troienne) and at least there is not any 3 x 3 inbreeding in his pedigree…. Which is a relief according to the stats…!
Hey Eddie F since you are the wisest in your family, can you tell how much inbreeding is in the Human Race since all of us descend from Adam and Eve?
That’s great research, Nelson. I am not the wisest in my family, but I’m wise enough to stay away from discussing human breeding on the Internet. (i.e., DISCUSSING on the Internet, not BREEDING on the Internet.)
What conclusions do you draw from your research for evaluating the pedigrees of Derby prospects? For example, would you downgrade Prevalence due to the deficiency noted in your post?
BTW, I’m overjoyed to learn belatedly from you that Holy Bull won the Kentucky Derby! Yay!!
And Summer Squall, too!
Tremendous research. When I talk about too much inbreeding it is due to the fact that of the 10 inbred horses you mentioned, 8 of them never made it past their 3-year-old campaign and the majority of them didnt even make it past the Triple Crown. As I said, of course EQ can win the Derby, but I still say our horses have too much inbreeding, especially to Mr. Prospector. The reason we dont have any outcrosses win the Derby anymore is that there arent any. I dont mind inbreeding, but with EQ it’s way too much IMO. When you have an outcross you can breed that horse to anyone and I believe in the long run that makes for sounder horses.
Thanks Steve !
The lack of genetic diversity is more prevalent in Europe and Australia.
There was a 2020 research published in the Scientific Reports, that analyzed the genetics of more than 10,000 Thoroughbreds.
It found that 97% of the horses in the study traced to Northern Dancer. 35% of European horses had Sadler’s Wells and Danehill in their pedigrees; 55% of the Australasian Thoroughbreds show those two elite sires.
I also would like to see more outcrosses but even one source (South America) is being inundated with American sires…
The market has the last word…!
You may find a study of Chillingham cattle of interest.
Whether NM did or not, I found it interesting. Thanks for the tip!
Northern Dancer blood appeared over saturated in Europe but the geneticists at Coolmore obviously have a handle on when to cross backwards and forewords. The Aga Khan is less resistant than 20 years ago.
I would not call the lack of inbreeding a sign of deficiency. Prevalence is 4×5 inbreed to Damascus.
Regarding the current prospects, no real conclusion can be drawn because all of them got at least Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer repeated one time.
The ones with the greatest inbreeding are Essential Quality (3xSecretariat, 3x Northern Dancer and 4xMr. Prospector), Dynamic One (2xSecretariat, 3xNorthern Dancer, 3xMr. Prospector) then you have Spielberg (3xNorthern Dancer, 3xMr. Prospector).
In terms of general conclusions, You could say that 3×3 inbreeding is not precisely a good formula to win the Derby (with only Spectacular Bid and Big Brown )…. but how frequent are those(3×3) cases?
I am afraid I don’t have answers to key questions like: Is inbreeding good or bad, inevitable?…How much is to much inbreeding, how close is too close (3×3, 2×3??)..?
Good catch … it should have read GIACOMO by Holy Bull does not show any inbreeding in 5 generations… It is bad that we can not edit here…
No one ever said it was a sign of deficiency. There is a big difference between inbreeding and over inbreeding.
I was responding to Eddie F who wrote: ” For example, would you downgrade Prevalence due to the deficiency noted in your post?”
Indeed. Inbreeding does set the phenotype, but we have gotten to where there is almost no sire line besides Pharlaris. I think the only stallion successful at this level not of his sire line is Tiznow. Outcrossing can lead to a hybrid vigor. We need more diverse stallion lines and not just the same recrossings of the same couple horses
My word choice could have been better. But I said “deficiency” only in regard to the colt not having the pattern that you noted. It wasn’t meant to imply anything negative. I’m getting the impression (well…more than an impression) that the issue of inbreeding isn’t useful in handicapping the Derby. 🙂
Who is handicapping the Derby?
Is that a philosophical question?
Correction: *Holy Bull the sire of Giacomo…. Giacomo with no inbreeding…
Correction: *Summer Squall is the sire of CHARISMATIC the 1999 Derby Winner..
I am taking five generations to check repetitions but the definition of inbreeding takes up to the fourth generation…
It’s hard to believe that within a month’s time the 20 colts heading for the Kentucky Derby will be settled with only the post position draw to fear. I’m not sure what to make of Life is Good’s performance in the San Felipe Stakes other than he should be on the lead if he makes it to the Derby. Moreover, with Life is Good’s presence the field should be scattered quite a bit allowing for a cleaning run race. We’ll see.
The Rebel Stakes should be a fascinating race while delineating the contenders from the pretenders. Another prep that seldom impacts on the Derby is the UAE Derby but this year there are two Flatter colts that appear to have some talent. Either they will impress or flop but at least it’s something to look forward to. Usually I give it a pass.
Anyway, another fun read Steve, much appreciated. The two leading Tapit colts still look the liable Derby winner to me but from now on things become quite serious with only a few weeks to do it in. Fun times.
Very interesting indeed is the Rebel…
I am not sure why I like Get Her Number that much… I am sure It is not because the 5.5-month layoff, the fact that he is not faster than Caddo River or that he is supposed to be a turf specialist….
Gee … what is hauling me to root for him?…!
Nelson, who do you like more Mouheeb or Panadol for the UAE Derby? Mouheeb is a full brother to Favorable Outcome so I’m giving him the nod but I do like Panadol as well.
Can’t decide in the Rebel, too many unknown variables. Should Caddo River win, however, the Derby becomes even more intriguing.
I like Panadol … he defeated a better field at the same distance of the UAE Derby. He showed a lot of determination
Yes… Mouheeb’s mom is more successful but of both Flatters I also like Panadol’s pedigree better… perhaps because I see more familiar Derby names in his distaff line.
Panadol was very courageous in the Al Bastakiya but Mouheeb will be fresher. Toss a coin. Hopefully, one or both are impressive.
Ha! Maybe it’s because GHN won a G1 stakes beating Rombauer and Spielberg….in his first dirt race! He’s been training regularly since January. I expect him to be a factor.
Baffert has another horse in there, Hozier, who has speed and he’s just two stalls down from Caddo River. The horse in PP 2 also has speed. Wwe’ll see how that develops.
I liked Hozier’s last race–Fenway was cruising along and looked like a winner–but Hozier came running…and I know Fenway has since run poorly, but that day they were going fairly well, both of them.
Yes, Steve, that’s exactly what I meant. If Caddo River can overcome the ‘tag teaming’ and win then the future is bright for a torrid Derby. The Dialed In colts are wild cards in this – who knows?
I tell ya…IF I owned Life is Good, and we won the Kentucky Derby—instead of cramming in three races in 5 weeks….I’d look at a Derby/Met Mile double—the two biggest races in the US for breeding value—LIG is a Met Mile type horse, and he is already as fast as his elders.
😮 That should be a capital crime! LOL
The Derby has not exactly been a big race for breeding value.
I suspect he will have Charlatan or Gamine for the Met Mile and keep Life is Good against 3YOs.
With the rebel PP draw completed, Caddo River cards are on the table with the one hole. No excuses for concert tour stalking or pressing trip.. Concert should be the favorite if not back up the truck.
Has he run two turns yet? Because this is a graded stakes race….
Bob will have two legitimate shots after this race. Bob’s win percentage at Oaklawn is off the charts. If he ships, he’s got the goods in Ark.
BRISNET ratings for March 6
Weyburn 104
Life Is Good 103
Helium 93
and…
Dynamic One 85
What odds would you have gven that Life is Good would not have the highest rating of the three? Helium’s iss actually pretty good cnosidering how wide he was the entire race and that he ran 1 1/8 miles.
Yeah. I’m not surprised that Weyburn earned a 104, but I would have bet that LIG was at least a couple of points higher.
A 93 doesn’t often translate to a Derby win, so it seems to me that Helium needs another prep.
His thoro will be higher. Horse was 5-6 wide entire trip.
Yes, I understand. But he isn’t the first horse to encounter extenuating circumstances in his last prep (if that was his last prep). And in the 30+ years of published Brisnet figs, only Mine That Bird had a number lower than 96. That’s not to say the 93 is disqualifying. But you don’t want to see other strikes against him.
It is more telling that Idol got 102 Brisnet SF for his Big Cap win … so at least we could say LiG was faster than the best horses running that afternoon at Santa Anita.
Brickyard Ride who won the San Carlos in 81″ 2/5 got Brisnet SF of 104 … and I refuse to equalize the quality of the Gotham to that of the San Carlos especially because there was an unreliable jump for every horse running in the Gotham (i.e. speed base line too low).
No one would believe that Weyburn was faster than Life is Great.
Again, it is very difficult to normalize every track conditions so as to make them accurately comparable …
I wear blinkers when looking at speed figures for Derby hopefuls. They’re generally useful when comparing 3yos at similar distances. Weyburn may have given the performance of his life. It was 19 points higher than his December maiden win. Expect a bounce in the Wood, or wherever he goes next.
with Thoro-Graph it’s not a\about the figures as much as it is the pattern a horse is on.
I hear the Thoroughgraph radio show on Sat mornings…those guys are good….
I didnt knew there was one.
Probably referring to Jason Levin’s Inside Racing. Allen and now Roger represent Thorograph every Saturday with thoughts and free picks for that day around the country. Recommended
Brickyard Ride is fast…good to see Cal-bred speed, which is legendary…he won a 7 fur but he’s better at 6 fur…I think they might try the Met Mile, have heard they are thinking longer…
Keepmeinmind……..is really good……..really…….
His Thoro-Graph numbers need to get faster, but he always runs his race. I hope these delays havent hurt him. He doesnt need to win this, just be closing again
AGREED
UNTREATED……..must have issues….bad race….then this win was only 86……but wow…..i see a ton of ability…..he only ran an 86 so, i mean improvement…..not derby……but look for this horse to improve…..but he must have issues….
No he’s not ready for the Derby, but they might take a shot. I liked what I saw. He certainly improved with Pletcher. Maybe it was the two turns.
Good post, PV. Agree about the Derby.
No issues. He had an entrapped epiglottis which is why he ran so poorly first time out. missed a race because of it and had to skip the Tampa Bay Derby. Outside shot for the Derby but has to win his next start.
HE STARTED LATE
Steve, I know Shug is a HOF trainer, and has trained some incredible champions; however, I don’t know much about him. Appreciate if you can discuss some of his family history and other facts. Why is he listed as Claude the third?
Thats his name. Shug obviously is a nickname. He caame up under the great Frank Whiteley, trained some top horses for Loblolly Stable then was hired by Phipps in 1985 and has won numerous big races over the years, like Easy Goer, Personal Ensign, Orb, Seeking the Gold…well almost all the horses I mentioned in another horses comment.
Thanks; the Frank Whiteley connection is something else; when did he start his learning with that master? I hope Shug gets another champion in GH….just a gorgeous looking horse and stride…
It’s like when you create a password and find that you need to add a number. Apparently, the names Claude McGaughey I and Claude McGaughey II were already taken. But seriously, in an interview he said this about his nickname: “I grew up with it. I am a third. My grandfather had a nickname, my father had a nickname, and I guess they had to give me one, and that’s what they came up with. They never were able to give me a reason where it came from. It came from my mother.” I wonder how many times in his life he’s had to tell people that he doesn’t know why he has the nickname Shug. Could be in the thousands. 🙂
If I had to guess, I’d say it’s short for Sugar.
Ottothelegend looked quite good breaking his maiden (over 1 1/16ths) at Oaklawn this weekend. Classy looking, long and smooth striding well-bred Uncle Mo 1/2 brother to Twirling Candy. Only his 2nd start, and not sure if he’s too far behind condition-wise, but this is 2021.
Yeah, I saw that race too late. I had written so much already I thought I would save it for next week when there isnt as much going on and it wouldnt get lost. I never thought he would get through.
He came out of the key maiden race of the year! Before Otto, Run Classic and Warrant came back to win.
Greatest Honor certainly has the weapons and seasoning but like you I can’t wait for more Weybourn. WOW!!!!! Love that pedigree.
Steve, you told us what Diodoro said to Keepmeinmind to keep him happy during the delay in racing. But you didn’t enlighten us about the colt’s reply. Do we have to wait until next week’s column? Perhaps Keepmeinmind never speaks unless he has something to say.
No, I wrote his reply and took it out thinking is was too much shtick. I wrote that Diodoro told him he was running next week and the horse replied “Yeah, right, I’ve heard that before.” Now you know why I took it out.
Yes, I do!!! I was hoping for something like “Stop talking to me as though I understand what you’re saying.” 😉
Sure, you just want to see me laughed out of the business. That is a 10 on the barf scale.
I’ve scored worse.
Who knew?……horses speak english………
C’mon, man. It depends on where they were brought up. But some of those European-bred horses know enough English to have a casual conversation.
The export of US made films has resulted in all horses of a certain age, no matter where they were brought up (so long as their dams are not Luddites or located in Italy, where the films are all dubbed) being able to understand English. Speaking it is another matter. But you’re right, many of them do have conversational capacity. They are hampered, however, by heavily nasalized pronunciation.
Hello again Steve, what’s your impression of Rock Your World. He will be taking on Life is Good in the SA Derby. Rock Your World recently won a 1 M Turf Stakes race impressively and had a strong gallop out. He seems to have a good pedigree and he could be something special if he can transfer his Turf form to dirt. He only needs a 2nd in SA Derby to punch his ticket to Louisville. You know LIG will ensure a very small field. RYW could be had at a good price if he is included in KDFW5.
I wrote about him last week. He is very interesting for sure.
2-1 futures odds…..two ways to handicap, LIG on top or LIG off the board, in which case you would be looking for closers…..
Happy to see my favorites still in at 1 and 2. Over and out.
I was able to watch most of the preps this weekend and yes was kind of floored by Life is Good. Mike far as I could tell was just a hand ride from start to finish and the colt didn’t even appear to break a sweat. Mike did say after the race the colt seemed to be distracted by the big screen. Liked the race with Helium as well. My question is though thought Lasix was supposed to be gone this year?
I’m not aware of any horse that ran in any of three preps on Saturday racing on Lasix. Lasix cannot be used in the Derby. It can be used in the official preps, but Derby points will not be awarded to any runner on Lasix.
It is in stakes.
Well just wish they would go ahead and just get rid of it all together here. They don’t use it overseas and still confounds me to this day why trainers here still feel the need.
Fear, may be the best answer for the use of Lasix by trainers in horses who gave no history of bleeding.
I’m glad to see that Prevalence is still in the wings. I agree that, unless he does something very unusual – very quickly, he probably should not be rushed into the Derby. There are too many good races for such a talented colt which won’t require him to run with virtually no foundation. I have been very impressed with Elusive Quality’s increasing maturity physicality-wise. He has put on muscle and seemingly bone. I agree that I would like to see a little inbreeding (especially Mr. P., but through Fappiano isn’t so much a negative). I believe fast horses can be properly taught to go longer, but you can’t make a plodder fast.
Prevalence is running Thursday in an allowance race
I saw that. I don’t think an allowance (unless the field is super-stellar) is going to do the trick unless he pulls a “Secretariat-Belmont” type of race.
I think they just need to run him anywhere.
Ummm that should have read a little LESS inbreeding
I certainly can’t argue with you Steve putting Greatest Honour & Essential Quality at 1 & 2.
Because it is Baffert, and because he seems to have a knack with young 3 year olds I would put Life Is Good at #1.
hat San Felipe was something to watch. Even drifting out through the lane LIG maintained and increased his lead with ease.
It appears right now and I know it is still early but we have 3 standout 3 year olds. I am still believing Caddo River will show his stuff once he gets back to racing. Nevertheless excellent observations and analysis Steve.
Thanks, I cant argue with any of the top 3 being No. 1.
Often in US racing, I am mystified the leniency by which some riders are allowed to disadvantage their opponents in a race. The same ‘actions’ in other jurisdictions around the world would have the stewards totally enraged. What gives?
Animal Farm syndrome?
They are much more strict in Europe. The winning jockey in the Saudi Cup was fined $100,000 for whipping his horse one whip over the limit.
Steve, I seem to be in the minority but Life Is Good did not impress me on Saturday. In a small field he had his own way with stablemate Medina Spirit riding shotgun. Drifting out badly in the stretch says to me that mentally he’s not there or was tiring. This is not the trip he should expect in a full field Derby. Plus his breeding does not suggest 1 1/4M will be his best distance.
All that is why he’s Not No. 1.
Hi Mark: Hi Marc, please keep in mind that Life is Good is lightly raced, he has only 3 lifetime starts. I would tend to believe that he is still green but many of these horses are lightly raced. It appears to be the new normal for horses.
The racing of today is nothing like it used to be. I believe owners & trainers are applying the “Justify” approach for preparing their horses for the Triple Crown.
The “Justify” approach probably works best when applied to Justify, and applied by Bob Baffert.
Try convincing the other trainers that. Lol
Thanks for your continuing assessments. We have been watching some dazzling performances. I was impressed by the top 3 in their most recent races and was blown away by Helium’s race. It is no wonder his connections are soaring in their enthusiasm.
Thanks for mentioning Nicky the Vest! He’s my favorite 3yo colt in training. I hope he gets a chance!
I went into more detail on him last week in case you didnt read it.
Hey Steve, what do you think about Big Lake?
He certainlly is bred for distance, but he almost blew a 6 length lead at the eighth pole. He obviously has talent but neds to improve against these horses.
Agree steve, if this horse can run without the immaturity he could be a nice little horse down the road. Wonder where they go next with him.
Big Lake ran nicely Steve. American Pharoah’s babies are making me change my opinion of them being turf horses. ATGB ran a really nice race too. Concert Tour was Mega Impressive. I think he has a legit shot at the derby. Hozier looked like he got lucky after how BL got bumped. I would love to see the tri horses move forward. This colt crop looks pretty nice so far. Swiss looked like the Iron Horse she is. What are your opinions on the racing this weekend Steve?
Thanks Steve, I can understand that the top 3 did not move in your rankings. I think a lot of people head’s are spinning with LIG race. Some our saying the race was too good to be that true, some our saying it was too fast too soon, some our saying he is a run off, some our saying he could have won the race by 16 lengths if he stayed a straight course….I am assuming you still believe he can not get the mile and a quarter this early in the year…a couple questions:
>has there been a 3 year old that you know of have a 107 beyer and 130 timeform rating in March? and at this point (timewise) do these figures matter?
>If LIG does further improve (which I am expecting), historically, what horse could he become similar too?
Naturally, I also think LIG will have weaker figures in the SA Derby as Bob won’t want another incredible effort prior to the KD.
Thanks for all your efforts!
He’s definitely not a run off. He does everything so easily. I’m not saying he cant win the Derby, but he’s only run three times and still has issues to work out. It’s not the greatest 10f furlong pedigree. I just want to see other speed in the Derby. The killing of the sprints has given a huge edge to the speed horses which is sad.
I dont follow the Beyers or Timeform numbers so I cant answer that. Those numbers dont interest me at 1 1/16 miles because they are based purely on speed and not the trip. If hes similar to any horse its last year’s Into Mischief, but he is faster.
Materiality had a 110 BSF in late March in the Florida Derby. California Chrome earned a 108 in the San Felipe. Dunkirk had a 108 in the Florida Derby. And there was the ill-fated I Want Revenge earning a 113 in the Gotham.
What an encyclopedia, and right at your fingertips. No one will ever come close to Bellamy Road in the Wood with his 120 Beyer.
People think he was a bust in the Derby too. Couldn’t be further from the truth. Horse lost a shoe and was about 7 wide the entire trip to finish within 6 lengths and half length out of 5th. I’m sure he bounced some, but without the shoe and blistering pace, same thing that caught Point Given, maybe he has a better showing.
Coolmore running a rabbit in Spanish Chestnut to kill him hurt him as well, as it did everyone near the lead. Thats why Giacomo was able to win
If Bellamy Road had saved 11 of those 120 points for the Derby, he’d have won. 😉
Ah yes, Bellamy Road won the Wood by 17 1/2 lengths (what was the jock thinking?). He was the 2005 Derby favorite and led a Nick Zito contingent of five (5) “contenders” entered in the race. They all finished off the board with the best being Bellamy Road who finished 7th. Nick Zito had a lot on his plate that year and, unfortunately, he’s never been the same since.
Thanks for the info!
Thanks for another great analysis, Steve. Many readers probably expected you to move LIG up. In the final comment for your Week 7 column, I predicted that you’d keep the order of the top 3 intact. I’m still working on the script for “Being Steve Haskin.” 🙂
I’m surprised that you have Helium ahead of your longshot winner Weyburn, but I understand your awe. We’ve seen Derby winners of the past 20 years buck Derby history, as you said. But it’s usually just one trend at a time. A Derby win by Helium would bust all kinds of trends: Eight weeks since last prep; One race as a 3yo; Never raced beyond 8.5f. There may be other ones.
Maybe the Rebel will be the exciting race we thought the San Felipe would be. Do you think that it will help answer the question of whether Caddo River can possibly match strides with LIG in the Derby? And if not Caddo River, what horse can be expected to soften up the speedy beast?
The final preps should answer most questions, as usual. I believe that Greatest Honour needs to be much closer to the leader at the stretch call of the Florida Derby. Good luck to him if he needs to pass three horses from 5 lengths behind at the stretch call in the Kentucky Derby.
I think I’m easy to figure out, but once in a while I like to throw a curveball. When you have two such strong No. 1 and 2s I cant lower them to put up a one-dimensional speed horse who is drifting out and is still green no matter how fast he is, and he is the fastest horse….at 1 1/16 miles at least. Weyburn likely will move ahead of Helium once Jimmy finalizes his plans and says they are pointing for the Derby and going in the Wood or wherever. If Helium was going to have another race thats a different stoy. I hope the Rebel answers that question and Cconcert Tour should help him do that. I really dont want another wire to wire Derby winner. Call me old school but that is getting boring. I doubt Authentic would have won the Derby in May. Greatest Honor has never been that far back. He has more speed than that, and after three straight wins I dont care if he’s flying in the stretch of the Fla Derby and fails to get up
Agree completely about GH. He doesn’t need to win the Fla Derby…just make a good stretch run from not far back. You have to go a long way back to find a Ky Derby winner that wasn’t 1st or 2nd at the stretch call (or within 2.5 lengths regardless of position) in the final prep*. As for Helium’s next move, I think that Casse will soon come to his senses. LOL
*Trivia answer: Ferdinand in 1986
What’s the question? Is this Jeopardy?
LOL. See asterisk.
Well, the filly Swiss Skydiver took on Authentic in the Preakness Stakes and guess what happened? Robby Albarado had the confidence in his mount to make a race of it.
No doubt much of that confidence has its foundation in Ken McPeek. I wish more trainers would use Robby A. Shame to let his skills go unused.
Yes, affirmative to both. Kenny McPeek isn’t frightened to take his horses to Europe either if he thinks they’re good enough.
True. Having good owners is also a necessary foundation for successes like that of Swiss Skydiver and others of McPeek’s charges.
“Haskin” isn’t nearly so mellifluous as “Malkovich.”
Have you landed a director?
I direct, write, and star in all of my films. All shot in Super 8.
I am truly looking forward to seeing how you immortalize Steve’s trip through his own portal.
Well, he has the mellifluous voice, name, as well as superior acting and directing talent – Orson Welles.
And integrity. He will sell no wine before its time.
Looked up the pedigree for Dynamic One. Heck of a tail female line. Would be nice to see Phipps Stable back in the mix. DO is definitely one to keep my eye on but Greatest Honour still my favorite. Thank you Steve for keeping us up to date.
Was so weird seeing GH run past Dynamic One in the maiden score with Shug beating the Black and Cherry cap. Just doesn’t seem right. I also saw another Phipps horse co owned with Peter Brandt running for Chad Brown. Are they doing more of these partnerships and letting the partner’s primary trainer take the horse?
Helium was the surprise of the weekend for me, coming seemingly out of nowhere. The on air group made many comments about his experience being on grass, stating that he also had a grass pedigree. Then I checked his pedigree and while the former was true; Helium had never raced on dirt, I disagree with the latter. True, his sire Ironicus raced on grass, but being by Distorted Humor out of an AP Indy mare, he was more bred for dirt. Helium’s dam sire is Thunder Gulch out of a Saint Ballado mare. Plenty of dirt there, as well. Like Steve, I don’t like the idea of training up to the Derby and if Casse chooses to go that way, he won’t be high in my ranking. Hoping he’ll have a change of heart and give this guy one more start before D-Day.
I could tell when we talked and I asked which race would be next, he seemded hesiitatn to say he wants to go straight to the Derby because he knew how it would sound. Times have changed, but two his three starts have been sprints and I told Mark no horse in memory has won the Derby having never run over 1 1/16 miles, but he feels he did run thiat far n the TB Derby. I have him at 9 now hoping he changes his mind, but I could never rank him any higher.
No matter how much times have changed, this colt just doesn’t have the foundation to tackle 10f the first Sat. in May. He is talented, but he definitely won’t be in my Top 5 unless he has another start; one “officially” at 9f, no matter how far he actually traveled in the TB Derby.
Prevalence is entered at GP on 3/11, race 8.
It’s a 1 mile optional claiming race.
He sneaks right in at the deadline. After that he would have had no shot to make the Derby. He’s lucky it filled.
He was nominated for the Rebel this weekend which I thought would have made more sense (points). Maybe they just didn’t want to ship??
There are two very fast horses in the Rebel. Godolphin doesnt need to run him in the Derby. They’ll take one shot in the Blue Grass probably and see if he gets in. If he doesnt not a big deal.
I hear ya, Steve. I know that Goldolphin has Essential Quality and Proxy pointed to the Derby but it’s well known how badly Sheikh Mohammed wants to win the roses. Having a third bullet in the chamber would increase his chances of hitting the target. It’s like increasing your chances to win the lottery. If there are 20 chances to win the prize and you have two tickets, would you not accept a third ticket if offered?
I do understand that you don’t want to bring a horse along too soon with only three races for foundation, but as we’re quick to lament, this is the trend we’re seeing more of today.
Will be curious to see if Tyler Gaffalione is instructed to try and rate Prevalent on Thursday. Would be nice to know if he really needs the lead? In any event, Brendan Walsh is on record saying that he will not push for the Derby if the horse is not 110% ready.
Rebel was just too much too soon for a horse who had gotten sick. I’m OK with them winning this race and then taking their shot in a Derby prep
I was talking with one of my racing pals about him around this time on Sunday and lo and behold the Gulfstream entries for Thursday, 3-11, were posted as we spoke and there was Prevalence entered in the 8th race. Now that’s what I call a good omen.
If he performs well in Thursday’s allowance, Brendan Walsh will try to get Derby points in the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby. It’s gonna be a tight squeeze to make the Derby but I’m sure if he gets 1st or 2nd , he’ll have at least 40 points which should be sufficient. He appears to be a colt who’s bred to handle the mile and a quarter. If he’s not up to the the task, he still has a promising future with plenty of options this summer and fall. Should be fun to watch.
Hello Steve, great job with the rankings! I like it that you’ve moved Proxy to #8. I was glad to get Proxy at big odds of 41-1 in KDFW4. He is flying under the radar and has been dismissed by most bettors. I bet him to win as well as boxing him with the field and you’re too 2 GH & EQ. It seems like the blinkers will move Proxy up and I like his tactical speed and we know that Johnny V. can get the job done. I would love to see Proxy turn the tables on Mandaloun in the LA Derby. The added distance should be to his benefit. I am not giving up on Roman Centurian yet. He wants more ground which he will get next time either in the Wood Memorial or the Bluegrass. He is up against it because he needs a 2nd next out to get enough points. The Wood seems a softer spot because EQ is going in the Bluegrass. I agree with you about Helium. I hope he trains well in the coming weeks because he could be special and will likely be overlooked in KDFW5.
We know pretty much what the other horses are capable of and all their tweaks and equipment changes have already happened. He is one horse who still has that unknown factor in that there is going to be a change and that could move him way up. So that to me makes him intriguing. He doesnt have to move up very far to put himself in the Top 5. That is an awesome price at 41-1. Even if he doesnt win the Derby your gonna have fun leading up to it.
Joe, we’re betting a few similar horses this year I think. I’ve gone way over my usual max of two horses TOTAL for future wagers. Yesterday, Proxy and Risk Taking were my 4th and 5th bets of the year.
Good luck on your Future wagers Eddie! We both have Proxy at nice odds and if he runs big in the LA Derby those odds will be cut in half. I’m sure you like myself were disappointed in Roman Centurian’s 4th in SA Derby. He is now up against it but maybe if he runs in the Wood at 1 1/8 he can finish strong and at least get up for 2nd. He seems like a horse that really wants 1 1/4. He certainly would get a hot pace in the Derby. Call me crazy but I am also enamored by Helium. Certainly I hope he runs once more before the Derby, but even if he trains up to it as long as the reports from Casse are promising I am considering betting him in KDFW5 at big odds.
Thanks, Joe. Yeah, RC was a huge disappointment. But as Steve wrote, he never had a chance. I would have liked to see some punch in the stretch though. Still time for him to rebound in the Wood, but it’s a tough climb. The Louisiana Derby should be a barn burner!
Also, Unbridled Honor has outworked Untreated in the mornings….just saying
This only happened when it was Untreated’s first work in the todd barn, in the recent work Untreated DUSTED UH. In what’s probably the weakest prep so far, UH got 4th beaten by 7. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out of Todd’s barn in the future
Stop making excuses for Untreated in that work….and YOU are the one who said the barn was very high on UH. Now you say he will probably be removed to another trainer ? You’ve just proven that you are nothing but a troll, so if you speak to me on the other board, don’t expect a response.
Untreated beat a bad maiden field, but that’s much better than UH in the TB Derby ? I laugh.
Excuse me Betsy, I think you and Livewire think I am someone Named AP. But I would like to clarify that’ve no idea who that is, and that this is my first time commenting on a public forum for horse racing. According to Livewire, a couple of works were removed. So I might’ve gotten a wrong impression. Sorry for the confusion, I have never been a fan of Unbridled Honor and didn’t even know about him until the TB Derby. I don’t know what other board you are talking about. I don’t think Untreated’s maiden field was bad, and even if it was bad, he did it in impressive manner in a fast time. Hope you have a good day.
It does complement Unbridled Honor that he has consistently outworked Untreated in their 4 works together since he entered Todd’s barn Jan 14th. Even this latest work.
You might’ve gotten confused? XBTV only has 2. 1st work, Untreated loses by a head. Second work UH loses by a couple of lengths. And if you really like HC’s from what I can infer of your conversations on here. Take a look at Twenty Twice, this is a horse that Sisterton is really high on and thinks of him as potentially a G1 horse. I think horses that deserve to be featured on here right now are Rock Your World and a couple others. There is another enigmatic prospect in Big Lake, who might or might not have dirt restrictions(Pharoah as a sire) If he can run straight, change leads, and run near the speed. He could pick up some small prizes in the big races.
I’m not confused, maybe you? I guess you don’t realize that XBTV does not have every work? But of those XBTV has, when on the inside UH hands it to Untreated by more than when, on the inside Untreated does not fare as much better. They both received the same clocking in all 4 of their works together.
Well I should say, without looking at the works. You “assumed” UH outworked Untreated?
In their two recorded works, they are both 1-1. I would have to think, in a race with UH and Untreated, Untreated will walkover UH.
AP, we shall see. The last work was posted but was removed. I don’t know why but it may be because the track was pretty chewed up. In that one, UH was again ahead even though he was never asked. The two have ended up in exact positions during their works depending on who is outside, starting behind, etc, on the two remaining posted XBTV works. They have always posted the same work time probably because neither have started at exactly the same time. I know you know better that for a margin to exceed one length their has to be separation between the two horses. This has never been the case for any of their works except for the gallop out on the far turn. In that instance UH has accelerated more clear of Untreated when on the inside than Untreated has when on the inside. I’m going with UH. Good luck to you with Big Lake, I prefer Defeater, he was clearly the best horse and I am looking forward to their next starts.
Excuse me Livewire, who’s AP? I didn’t know the work was removed. And if I got to see the other work it might’ve changed my mind. Now I have concerns for Untreated, as removed works can speak a different story. And I’m not sure how you “know me”, as this is my first time commenting publicly on a horse racing forum. I actually do prefer Defeater, but because he’s injured I have to go with Big Lake to try and get a price in the Rebel. I asked Steve above as you might’ve seen to see if he potentially could be a board hitter in the Rebel as I am looking to bet that race. Sorry for the confusion. I am not sure you got me right. I personally am not a Fan of Unbridled Honor. I don’t think he’s that good, but that’s just my opinion. My picks for the derby right now would probably be EQ or Greatest Honor. Potentially Concert Tour if he wins the rebel impressively. LIG is a really talented colt but don’t think he’ll get the distance.
Have a good day,
-RK
Thanks for the new list!
I’d asked about Unbridled Honor in the previous thread, but as you didn’t mention him here, I guess you didn’t see the promise that I did in his performance..?
I can appreciate your love of Honor Code and you liking Unbridled Honor, but with all the words I write it’s diffucult to go back to a fourth place finish when there are three major stakes to write about, especially when the horse was beaten 7 lengths, and although he passed horses in the stretch he didnt make up any ground from the quarter pole to the wire. Thats not saying he doesnt have potential, but I really have to stick to the horses who made a huge impression. I’m sure he will get another chance in a big race next time. Next week I will be writing about Todd’s many under the radar late-blooming horses and he will be mentioned there.
Thanks Steve. Will look forward to that. Visually it did look like he was the only one who closed. He was 12 1/2 lengths back at the 3/16ths and ended up 7 lengths and he did have to go 5 wide. I just think had he been closer up he might have been up there at the end. Just hoping to see another Honor Code get a chance after last year. Might be best for a developing colt like this if he doesn’t make the cut.
How many names are you using? LOL
Did you think this was Betsy? LOL
She is not the only Honor Code fan.
No, seriously, just use the one for comments. It’s true, I have used my real name before but just on this blog of yours.
Oh, I thought Steve was accusing me of changing names…oops.
Count me another Honor Code fan who is not Betsy.
He is not throwing precocity, but Honor Code’s get move forward very well. I hope one day you’ll have the occasion to rhapsodize about She’s a Shoo In’s racing success. She’s very inexperienced yet, but as you love watching Life is Good, I’m sure you’ll be similarly mesmerized by her way of going in her works.
Wow, you accused me of changing screen names ? Something I never did on BH even when I was harassed and attacked?
Sorry, I jumped the gun …I know you wouldn’t do that !
Steve:
I agree that, besides LIG’s dominating performance in the San Felipe, the horse with the best race this past weekend and most potential to improve is Highly Motivated. With all the difficulties and having not raced in a while, I thought his Gotham performance was strong. I am very much looking forward to seeing how he does in the Blue Grass Stakes.
It’s all a question of how far he wants to. Pedigree is OK, but not geared toward stamina.
Bob’s magic touch rarely comes up empty!
Ole Bobby does it again. How all of his good horses are Housebuster who can cover 2 turns like Secretariat without slowing down, is something to behold. Also, love how is stablemates always find a way to shove the rest to the field wide giving said “Superstar” horse an easy lead to carry his 22 and 46 speed as far as they want to go, really is incredible.
You noticed that, didn’t you. LOL
LOL is right. All we can do at this point.
Well, he HAS been doing that for many years now. Funny how no one seems to challenge that strategy.
I’m sure they are scared of getting caught juicing their horse. Bob is not because he clearly plays by a different set of rules. See Justify and Gamine. Gamine DQ’d not once but twice last year including the Oaks, yet destroys her competition in the Breeders Cup. How the hell was this horse allowed to run again? And no suspension for Bobby, just a little fine. Charlatan was juiced, Nadal probably was, Authentic could barely reach the wire at 1 1/8 in the Haskell, Honor A.P. ran by him like he was standing still in the SA Derby, but come Derby time he was ready to roll. Same with Breeders Cup.
It is comical how his best horses blow other Hall of Fame trainers best horses right off their feet in every big race.
Save for Arrogate and Pharoah who I believe were brilliant horses. The others of late “Bayern, Justify, Authentic, to name a few are a joke. They can’t get off the track fast enough, especially since Bayern flamed after destroying Shared Belief out of the gate and pulling a Bobby special, 22, 46, 110 3/4 in route to having 0 fatigue in a 10 furlong race. Amazing to me how this happens year after year, different horses, same running styles, and not a word about it.
Anyone artificially enhancing their horse should be scared. It’s true Bob gets results regardless of body type but until something definitive comes about it will continue. I do agree Pharoah was legit but the others will always be a question for me. Bob said something about Arrogate after the Dubai World Cup that was telling and it did telegraph his remaining race performances.
What did Bob say about Arrogate? I skyways wonder what happened to him after Dubai. I wish Bob would have sent him to the farm for 3 month turnout and he might have recovered to regain his form. Then his untimely death of an unexplained neurological disease – just so sad for one of my favorite horses.
You saw what I saw. 🙂
Also, it looked like Medina Spirit wanted to engage, but was held back.
Thats exactly what I saw, because it looked like Smith didnt want to rush to the lead and I thought MS was going to press him until JV went “uh oh”
Coincidence?
Pine Island, you are articulating what I’ve been thinking for years!! 🙂
I yell at my TV, “Don’t give him an easy lead!”
It’s monumentally boring to watch this happen over and over.
Uncontested lead, other speed horses under a stranglehold despite their connections saying they wanted the lead, and then no tiring by the leader.
Yawn.
That is because there is one maybe two, a new guy, who can turn horses into all time greats year after year. Funny how that works. At least the Jockey Club and Janney are trying to do something about it.