Derby Rankings: Week 9
Some new developments this week, highlighted by the big decision regarding the filly Secret Oath. And we have returned to a Sweet Sixteen…sort of, as we try to clear up this still muddled picture. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Mar. 14, 2022 – Week 9
By Steve Haskin
1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
I have run out of comments and background on him, so you know all there is to know about him, right? He’s run three times, lost his 3–year-old debut and is heading for a rematch with No. 2 Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes. I will add that his 95 Brisnet figure in the Risen Star Stakes is the same figure Simplification got in his convincing victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. As much as I have liked this colt after his two races last year, his record is not typical of a No. 1-ranked horse. I have to admit being enamored with his female family, so maybe I am looking at that through rose-colored glasses. But in nine weeks I haven’t seen anything that would compel me to rank a horse ahead of him. It is rare at this late date not to have a horse run a negative Thoro-Graph number or close to it. So I’m still hoping the horse I saw last year will emerge, and I have to believe his 3-year-old debut under the circumstances was good enough to keep him where he is. He at least basically paired up his “2” Thoro-Graph number from the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in defeat, suggesting a big improvement next time out. But he cannot afford a single slip-up because there are a half dozen horses breathing down his neck. Both he and stablemate Rattle N Roll lacked the explosiveness we saw last fall, and that is what I’m looking for in their next start. With only two preps there is very little room for error or forgiving. It’s dangerous having to go into your final prep against top-class horses needing to finish second. Three-horse photos before have happened before in the final prep.
2—Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
In many ways he may the biggest mystery horse of them all. I can’t recall ranking a horse No. 2 with only three career starts and losing two of them. But each one of his races has been better than the one before and it’s been Baptism under fire for him, so he is more battle-tested than most horses with three starts. We have learned more about him each time and can only imagine what he is capable of with a perfect trip. The Blue Grass will be his third straight mile and an eighth race, which also is rare and can dull most horses. But with his brilliance and jumping from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in his second career start I believe it will help build a solid foundation going into the Derby. We know he has speed; we know he’s a fighter; and we know he can adapt and change his running style after a bad start and having to rally from last. And if you believe the Risen Star Stakes was the best prep this year, he did get a faster Thoro-Graph number than the first two finishers because of his wide trip. Now he gets Flavien Prat, who should fit him perfectly. He’s been sharp in the morning, working a half in :48 2/5 over the deep Payson Park track, second fastest of 43 works at the distance. Back on December 4 following the Remsen, Chad Brown said, “As you know, I have NEVER stretched a horse out that far off just one six-furlong race, but this horse is freaky good and can win the Derby.” That was, and still is, good enough for me.
3—Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
He gave further warning that he is going to be tough to handle in the Louisiana Derby with a sharp five-furlong work in a bullet :59 3/5, fastest of 21 works at the distance and following that up with another bullet :59 4/5 drill. He can easily wire his field again, but this would be a perfect and final opportunity to show he can rate behind a horse and still be as effective as he has been controlling the pace. On the other hand, he just looks like a tractable horse who will sit off horses if he has to. And he likely will have to if Forbidden Kingdom makes the Derby He’s already been beaten when he went too fast early and I don’t see that happening again. His Brisnet speed figures have steadily improved (90-93-98) as has his Thoro-Graph numbers. I have known assistant trainer Scott Blasi for many years and I can’t remember him as high on a Derby horse as he is on this colt. “He has tremendous upside,” he said. “He’s fit, he’s seasoned, and he has good tactical speed. I’m as excited about him as much as any horse we’ve had on the Derby trail.” This is a classy horse with plenty of European stamina in his female family who can carry his speed a long way. He has already sent Smile Happy and Zandon off to the Blue Grass Stakes, and the way he beat them geared down the final furlong I’m not sure who will want to face him in the Louisiana Derby.
4—Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
Sometimes it’s the intangibles that put a horse in the winner’s circle on the first Saturday in May. And it is the intangibles that could separate this colt from the others. What you don’t see in the stats, speed figures, and pedigree is toughness, adaptability, and being able deal with adversity. He in many ways is the personification of his trainer, a third generation horseman who dominated the sport in Venezuela before he was kidnapped, held for four hours and then released. Then he was kidnapped again, which proved to be a traumatic experience, as he was held captive for 36 days until his family and friends were able to gather up the approximately $70,000 ransom money. Sano then said goodbye to his 165 horses and wound up settling in Florida where he had to start from scratch. He picked out Gunnevera as a yearling for $16,000 and wound up winning over $5.5 million with him. Now here he is with another tough blue-collar horse in Simplification, who was sold privately despite suffering from sesamoiditis. When Sano was a youngster his father tried to encourage him by telling him that someday maybe he’ll win the Kentucky Derby (like fellow Venezuelan Juan Arias with Canonero). When Sano first got Simplification he had him for 30 days before telling owner Tami Bobo, “You finally sent me my Derby horse; don’t ever sell this horse.” He told Bobo he was “tough as nails,” After breaking his maiden by almost 17 lengths in 1:09 4/5, Simplification was 1-5 in an allowance race, but he split his head open on the starting gate at the break. He was totally discombobulated early and jockey Miguel Vasquez could tell something was wrong. He still ran hard all the day and finished third. Afterwards it took 20 staples to close up the wound. He shrugged it off and destroyed his opponents in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. He is about to do something extremely rare – compete in all four Gulfstream Derby preps. We have seen how tough this colt is, how he can overcome adversity, and how adaptable he is by completely changing his running style. If he wins the Derby you just read why. All he has to do now is run somewhere other than Gulfstream.
5—Morello (Steve Asmussen, Classic Empire – Stop the Wedding, by Congrats)
As an aftermath of last weekend’s stakes, we’re going to focus on the speed figures. As you have read, Morello made a pretty big jump from a “7” to a “1 ¾” in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes. It would have been great to see him pair up that number stretching out to a mile in the Gotham Stakes against better competition, but his slight regression to a “2 ¾” was understandable off that big a jump and certainly nothing to be concerned about. Remember, that “1 ¾” is the fastest number by any horse in the Derby Future Wager field. His Gotham number still was excellent compared to the others and what is important is peaking on the first Saturday in May. He still has another major prep going a mile and an eighth in his first two-turn race, so you don’t want him peaking in the Gotham. He did get a pretty strong 96 Beyer figure and his Brisnet figures have climbed every race, from an 87 to 94 to 99. His Brisnet Prime Power Rating (don’t ask) is first of the 23 Future Wager horses and in his two stakes appearances he has not run under a 90 in any of his early, middle, and late pace figures, so while he doesn’t blow you away in any one part of the race he is steadily quick and never runs slow in any part of the race. In short, he has a high cruising speed that he can maintain throughout the race. I know you’re totally confused, so let’s just say he is a horse with no weaknesses from a speed standpoint, and I can’t find any weaknesses anywhere else. He just needs to pass his two-turn test against quality horses.
6—Secret Oath (D. Wayne Lukas, Arrogate – Absenthe Minded, by Quiet American)
Her owner said of the Kentucky Derby last week, “We are still considering all options at the moment. We have made no final decisions yet.” Well, one decision that has been made since then is that she is heading for the Arkansas Derby, as reported in Daily Racing Form. So that is a good first step. Now we have to see if it’s on to the Kentucky Derby, assuming she runs huge, or she goes for the Oaks if she doesn’t, or she waits for the Preakness. Going to the owner once again, her reply on all counts was “undecided.” Looking at the Thoro-Graph numbers in last week’s three major preps, Forbidden Kingdom got a “2 ¼” in the San Felipe, Morello a “2 ¾” in the Gotham, and Simplification a “2 ½” in the Fountain of Youth. Compare that to Secret Oath’s “1 ½” in her last two races, the fastest number by any of the Derby Future Wager horses, and you can understand the enticement of seriously considering the Kentucky Derby, which would be difficult to pass up if she beats up on the boys in the Arkansas Derby. Also, on Brisnet, she is the only 3-year-old to be coming off back-to-back triple-digit late pace figures and that’s with winning both races in hand. Her Thoro-Graph number in the Honeybee Stakes made the Rebel Stakes horses look like plodders, and none of the colts seen so far can match her explosive turn of foot. And in case you forgot, her sire won the mile and a quarter Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, and Travers Stakes in track-record time. Her dam won or placed in seven two-turn stakes, her broodmare sire sired a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, and her third dam is by Hatchet Man, who defeated Forego in the mile and a quarter Amory Haskell Handicap. What a legacy this would be for Arrogate.
7—Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant’s Causeway – Private World, by Thunder Gulch)
I know he hasn’t defeated any world beaters in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby, but I don’t know if any horse has made more improvement from 2 to 3 than he has, thanks in part to the old school training of Lynch, who has been working him long and fast and has him on a three-prep schedule. Now he’ll be looking to get revenge on Smile Happy in the Blue Grass Stakes, which is shaping up as the toughest prep of the year. He just looks like a different horse this year. He’s sharper, more in command, and he runs low and hard and with more authority. He breaks like a shot, takes charge immediately, and is on cruise control on the far turn while the others are being pushed hard and unable to gain on him. But before you get too excited over him, the Tampa Bay Derby runner-up was 37-1 coming off a distant fourth in the Withers Stakes, and the third, fourth, and fifth-place finishers were all horses he defeated handily in the Sam Davis. The Blue Grass will be a far tougher test and he does have to make up those 3 ¼ lengths on Smile Happy. In the Tampa Derby he was able to control the pace with a 1:13 three-quarters over a deepish drying out track. His closing fractions of :25 1/5 and :06 2/5 after fanning wide turning for home were good enough on that track. I am curious to see his Thoro-Graph number. In his four previous starts he’s run a “5” in three of them, including the Sam Davis, so he needs to finally show some improvement and get significantly faster. His raw speed figures are all over the place. He got an excellent 99 figure on Brisnet in the Sam Davis, but an 88 Beyer, and that dropped to a meager 84 in the Tampa Derby. So he’s a horse you can like or dislike without getting much of an argument either way.
8—White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
Handicapping these horses is so confusing this year because of the relatively slow overall speed figures. From a visual standpoint, his Holy Bull victory was very impressive, but like the Fountain of Youth, the race pretty much fell apart. And while his Thoro-Graph numbers have gradually gotten faster with each race, his “5” in the Holy Bull still leaves him with a lot of improving to do. But his Brisnet jump from a pair of 91s to a 97 in the Holy Bull contradicts that. And he did run a 96 in his career debut. So do we really have any clue how fast this horse is? Two works after a three-week absence from the work tab he went a swift half in :47 flat followed by five furlongs in :59 2/5, out in 1:12, so he sure bounced back OK and is razor-sharp. It is obvious he will be facing his best field by far in the Florida Derby and will be coming into the race off a two-month layoff, adding to the confusion, as does his pedigree, which overall lacks stamina, and because of the lack of big-name stallions he is an outcross through four generations. It is a common statement to make this year, but I have no idea what to make of him at this point. There is no doubt he is a very good horse, but is he a Derby horse?
9—Forbidden Kingdom (Dick Mandella, American Pharoah – Just Louise, by Five Star Day)
The morning line Derby favorite at 5-1? Boy have I lost touch with this sport. But I am giving him more respect this week. I ranked him low last week because, unlike recent front-running Derby winners, he has sprinter’s speed, and I mean :21 and :43 speed that not even the fastest sprinters in the country can match. Yes, he won his two-turn debut in the San Felipe, but in that field he couldn’t help but win. When asked what this colt has that would help him get a mile and a quarter, Mandella said, “He’s very intelligent.”All he had to do in the San Felipe was pour it on early and keep going with no worries of anyone catching him and he crawled home in :26 and :07. His raw speed combined with a pedigree that has pure sprinters Five Star Day, Carson City, and Mt. Livermore in his first three generations on the dam side and his dam being very fast in her own right was enough to convince me he was a one-dimensional speedball with sprinters dominating his female family. So why am I moving him up? Upon further study of his pedigree, I will say that there is a bit of chance he can stretch his speed out. First off, to go along with his intelligence, his broodmare sire Five Star Day’s dam is by Vanlandingham, who won the 1 ½-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup, as well as the Suburban Handicap and Washington D.C. International. Forbidden Kingdom’s third dam Til Forbid placed in the Alabama and Kentucky Oaks and is by Temperence Hill, who won the Belmont Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers, and Suburban. And you can’t forget the fact that Forbidden Kingdom’s sire is a Triple Crown winner. As for his speed, his 98 Beyer in the San Vicente was surely fast enough in this group and his 102 on Brisnet is the only last out three-digit figure. On Thoro-Graph, he improved from a “6” in his previous two starts to a solid “2 ¼” in the San Felipe. While he hardly looks like a typical Derby horse at this point, he has onIy one horse to beat in the Santa Anita Derby so I am keeping an open mind.
10—Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun)
The main concern I had with him, especially being so hyped all year, were his two slow Thoro-Graph numbers of “8 ¼” and “8 ½.” They just didn’t fit the visuals, as I could find no flaws in him in either of those races. He just did everything right. Even though he then finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes I figured those numbers had to improve considering the terrible trip he had. It was a performance that actually moved him up in my eyes as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender, as he no longer looked like just another exciting young Pletcher colt who was beating up on inferior competition and having everything his own way on the lead. He now looked more like a tough professional colt who was battle-tested and could shrug off obstacles thrown in his path. As it turned out, he not only jumped to a “4 ¼” Thoro-Graph number, he was two points faster than the second- and third-place finishers. On the other side of the coin his Brisnet speed figure plummeted from a 96 to an 89 and his late pace figure from a 110 to an 83, but like Beyer that does not take into account the trip he had. He still needs to take another significant step forward on Thoro-Graph, but I am now confident that with a decent trip he is going show tremendous improvement on all his speed figures in his final Derby prep, where he is going to have to run a big race to get enough points to make the Derby. If he does I believe he can make his presence felt on the first Saturday in May.
11—Early Voting (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Amour d’ete, By Tiznow)
This colt has me totally confused. Brown was always considering the Derby, but he also felt pointing for the Preakness made a lot of sense. Well, it looks as if the Derby is where he’s headed, especially after Un Ojo came off a second in the Withers to win the Rebel Stakes at 75-1 and Grantham came off a fourth in the Withers to finish second in the Tampa Bay Derby at 37-1. And he pretty much blew them away in the Withers with an eye-catching burst of speed at the five-sixteenths pole. So here is another who will go into the Derby with only three career starts, but with him it had nothing to do with timing, as Brown decided to give him nine weeks between the Withers and Wood Memorial, and he’s had only four half-mile works since. Although his Withers victory was stunning, his 74 Brisnet late pace figure was pedestrian, as was his 91 speed rating and his palty 74 Beyer figure. When he was a youngster at the farm, he was considered more muscular and compact than the typical Gun Runners, who are more long and lean and look like stayers. A few minor vet issues at 2 caused him to sell for a lower price than expected. But pedigree-wise he is all stamina, with his sire and broodmare sire accounting for three Breeders’ Cup Classic victories, and any horse who can win his career debut going and head at a flat mile and then draw off and follow that up with a dominating victory going 1 1/8 miles over a deep tiring muddy track has to have a solid foundation despite having only two starts. His Thoro-Graph numbers of “6” and “5 ¾” are far more promising than his raw speed figures. I don’t like the three starts and the nine-week layoff, but I do like what I’ve seen visually, hence my confusion.
12—Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
There is nothing to do with him but play the waiting game, as he prepares to face another confusing horse in Early Voting and the brilliant Morello in the Wood Memorial. So we wait for the Wood Memorial and wait for him to return to the work tab. He is just fortunate he’s built enough of a foundation with three two-turn races, two of them graded stakes, and a hard-fought victory in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes. But although he didn’t need the Fountain of Youth Stakes for seasoning, he did need it to get faster, as he is coming off three consecutive “6 ½” Thoro-Graph figures, which will not be fast enough to compete with the top 3-year-olds and he has yet to improve on them. The same goes for Brisnet, where he has yet to surpass a 93 speed rating. So when it comes to speed he has a lot of improving to do in the Wood Memorial, and he has to do it coming off a nine-week layoff, just like Early Voting. Because of his setback with a slight fever his Future Wager odds have gone from 14-1 in Pool 3 to 23-1 (on Sunday) in Pool 4. Between him and Early Voting, who knows what to expect in the Wood.
13—In Due Time (Kelly Breen, Not This Time – Sweet Sweet Annie, by Curlin)
Watching this colt progress from race to race you have to feel he is heading in the right direction, and his second-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes was a big step forward in his first test against top-class stakes horses. Each person has his or her speed ratings that they follow. The expensive ones like Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, which are used by trainers, owners, jockey agents, and serious bettors and often are used in the purchase of horses, are far more advanced and provide far more information than the pure speed figures that don’t take things like loss of ground and other factors into consideration. The reason I mention this is despite In Due Time’s visually strong performance, his “6” Thoro-Graph number was a substantial regression from his “3” in his allowance victory, which was a big jump forward from the “8 ¾” he got in his first two starts. So did he “bounce” off his big move forward or was the “3” a one shot effort and he just returned to where he was? His jump from an 8 ¾ to a 3 was not big enough to justify such a regression, and he got the same number as the third-place finisher, who was 87-1 and coming off two sprint races in his career. I know I have been visually impressed with his last two races, but he did also regress from a 94 to 91 on Brisnet and only ran a 90 Beyer. I like his long fluid stride, but I need to see what he does next time out before deciding how good and how fast he really is. This one is perplexing.
14—Rattle N Roll (Kenny McPeek, Connect – Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg)
He wasn’t getting any respect in the Future Wager when he was coming off his impressive victory in the Breeders’ Futurity, and now if you are willing to overlook his disappointing comeback race in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, which I felt was a terrible spot for him, then you might be intrigued by his 31-1 odds in this week’s Future Wager Pool 4, as he now will seek redemption in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby over a far more appealing distance and racetrack. A fast-closing second to Epicenter at Fair Grounds would put him in the Kentucky Derby, and then the question would be did get enough out of his first race to have him peaking on the first Saturday in May off a six-week layoff. Although I was apprehensive about the Fountain of Youth I expected him to show a lot more than he did. I just wanted to see him closing in the stretch, but he never got into the race. McPeek said he is a big galloping type of horse, which is not what you want at Gulfstream, and was not concerned at all about the way he ran. I am still a fan of this horse, but I am concerned and will be until I see a much improved effort under far more favorable circumstances.
15 and 16 — Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher) and Call Me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux)
I am quickly filling in the final two spots for the Sweet Sixteen with Pioneer of Medina because he was right there with Smile Happy and Zandon in the best prep of the year, leaped from a “10 ½” Thoro-Graph number to a “3,” and worked a sharp five-furlongs in 1:00 flat this past weekend, and with Call Me Midnight because he did beat No. 3 Epicenter and is up to six furlongs in his works. Both likely will show up at Fair Grounds again for the Louisiana Derby.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Could it be the two most talented colts on the Derby trail have only two career starts at this late date and have not run in a stakes? It is a bit early to rank them, as I normally don’t like horses going into the Kentucky Derby with only three career starts, especially not yet having proven themselves in stakes company. But this year might be the exception. Read on.
I still haven’t figured out the reason behind Oaklawn Park pushing their 3-year-old stakes up two weeks, thus making it difficult for late-developing horses to use the Arkansas Derby as a final prep for the Kentucky Derby. But for some, like the connections of Secret Oath, they love having more time to the Kentucky Derby, and that might be what puts their filly in the big race. We saw a very exciting late developer in WE THE PEOPLE destroy an allowance field at Oaklawn for his second runaway victory in as many starts. But unlike past years when he would be a sure thing for the Arkansas Derby, he will now have to come back in three weeks if they want to stay home and prep for the Derby there. Fortunately for him the Oaklawn-based 3-year-old males do not look that strong, but Secret Oath is now heading for the Arkansas Derby. In this past weekend’s race We the People had Florent Geroux way up in the saddle and his feet in the dashboard trying to keep him off the front-running Ruggs. With this being only his second career start, Geroux pushed him along in the stretch to get something out of the race as he drew off to win by 5 ½ lengths. We the People wanted a lot more and had no desire to pull up after the wire and continued to gallop out strong. He makes an impressive appearance on the track and has beautiful action, but what was most impressive was how he got faster with each quarter, going his last three quarters in :24 4/5, :24 3/5, and :24 1/5, then coming home his final sixteenth in a swift :06 flat. We’ll see if Winstar Farm and trainer Rudy Brisset are willing to stay home and bring him him back in three weeks.
It seems we are having more and more exciting latecomers to the Derby trail for whatever reason, which makes the race all the more difficult to handicap. For those looking for exceptional talents to get in the gate on the first Saturday in May it is very frustrating. Nowadays trainers are not afraid to run their horse at Churchill with only three career starts, which used to be an automatic toss until Big Brown and Justify came along. But they were no ordinary horses. In this day and age inexperience doesn’t mean what it used to. Todd Pletcher has run several horses in the Derby off three career starts and is planning to run CHARGE IT in the Florida Derby off a stunning maiden romp going a mile, in which he led all the way and still came home his final quarter in :24 flat while drawing off to an 8 ½-length victory in a quick 1:35 2/5, earning a huge 98 Brisnet figure and a whopping 117 late pace figure. This regally-bred half-brother to Travers winner Will Take Charge, by Tapit was beaten a neck by Volcanic in his career debut in a virtual match race, but it’s tough making your first career start at a flat mile and not only did he finish 12 lengths ahead of the third horse, Volcanic had two races under his belt and went on to finish a good third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in his next start. This colt’s mechanics are flawless, his lead changes are so smooth you barely can see him do it, and I can’t remember seeing a horse run a straighter course down the stretch. What put me over the edge was watching him outwork Commandperformance in a quick 1:00 4/5 for five furlongs and then draw at least six lengths clear on the gallop out, despite being on the outside. I wish he had one more start, but I’ve learned my lesson.
If I’m going strictly by sheer talent and what I’ve seen in two non stakes I could rank both horses very high. But I’m obviously not going to do that and ranking them anywhere from No. 12 to 16 tells you nothing because you have no clue where they fit. So for now I feel it is better served to highlight both colts in Knocking of the Door until they show what they can do in stakes company. Remember, We the People has already beaten winners so he has a slight advantage, but Charge lt already looks like he can be special.
Well, it is apparent COMMANDPERFORMANCE is not the same horse we saw last year, whether it is the injury he suffered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or the wet tiring track or simply not making the transition from 2 or 3 and being asked to do too much too quickly early in his career. Considering he was thought highly enough to throw him into the Grade 1 Champagne against Jack Christopher coming off a second in his career debut, perhaps there is a reason why Pletcher went conservative and put him in a maiden race rather than the Tampa Derby. He was getting blinkers for the first time, and we mentioned last week that stablemate Charge It outworked him and left him far behind on the gallop-out, so who knows?. At 1-10, even with a wide trip and on a tiring track, he should have been more competitive against a weak field of maidens. I still think he’s a very good horse and will win stakes, but he is off course right now as a Derby horse and we’ll see if they give him another chance. Maybe he only runs well in Grade 1 company.
After discussing plans with owner Paul Reddam, Doug O’Neill said SLOW DOWN ANDY will make his next start in the Sunland Derby, which makes the Santa Anita Derby look even more like a match race between MESSIER and Forbidden Kingdom. I wonder who Churchill Downs is rooting for. How much longer are we going to have a normally top 3 ranked horse like Messier hanging over the Derby trail like some mysterious shroud? In typical O’Neill fashion, he then worked Slow Down Andy seven furlongs in 1:27 2/5, as he looks to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby. As for Messier, he continues to impress, working five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 45 works at the distance. If he doesn’t have a new trainer by the Santa Anita Derby or if one or both Baffert bans are still in effect he will be running for the purse and Grade 1 status only and any Derby aspirations will be gone.
There is another fast horse in California, but it would seem like suicide to run the Cal-bred STRAIGHT UP G against Forbidden Kingdom even after a sharp half-mile work in :47 3/5, second fastest of 48 works at the distance. He definitely looks like he wants shorter distances.
Rebel Stakes runner-up ETHEREAL ROAD, who now will likely head to the Blue Grass Stakes with stablemate Secret Oath confirmed for the Arkansas Derby, returned to the work tab with a five-furlong drill in 1:01 2/5. Rebel winner UN OJO and third-place finisher BARBER ROAD have still not had a listed work since the race.
There has been some buzz around the Brad Cox-trained Gun Runner colt CYBERKNIFE, who scored a three-length victory last out in a Fair Grounds allowance race. He is an improving colt, whose Thoro-Graph number jumped from an “8 ¾” to a “3 ¼,” but he still needs to prove his poor effort in the Lecomte Stakes was a fluke and he can match up with far better competition. Another Cox-trained colt, the undefeated ZOZOS, a 10 1/2-length winner last out, worked a sharp five furlongs in :59 3/5. Cyberknife goes next in the Arkansas Derby and Zozos will take on Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby.
Remember the once highly regarded PAPPACAP, who ran an inexplicably poor race last time out? He worked a sharp five furlongs in a bullet :59 1/5 at the Casse Training Center.
TIZ THE BOMB, following his victory in the John Battaglia Stakes on Polytrack, could return to the dirt in the Florida Derby or possibly wait for the Arkansas Derby.
I’m curious about Rattle N Roll in the Loui. He seemed to make two moves in the FOY. So he could fire a nice one here. The question is, will Galt show the early speed he’s capable of to keep Epicenter honest on the front end. If RNR improves substantially in this one, he’s on a nice path leading into the derby.
Trainer Kenny McPeek sent Lucky Seven Stable’s Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll to the Gulfstream track to breeze in company following the break Saturday morning. Rattle N Roll on the inside and Smile Happy on the outside were credited with a joint bullet workout after breezing five furlongs in 58.81.
“They worked super. They both needed a steady one and they both zipped along,” McPeek said. “I was really pleased with both of them.” Interesting he worked them together…..saw this yesterday in HRN
double bullet work 1/28
I hope Steve Haskin will comment on the path that Rattle N Roll is taking to The Derby. Maybe he can even get some inside information(wasn’t she a pretty nice horse?). I’m starting to wonder if there was an injury or problem that I didn’t hear about or might have forgotten about. Rattle N Roll started his Derby run in The Fountain of Youth. Will wheel back in just 3 weeks to run in next Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, leaving 6 weeks until The Derby. Does he then train up to The Derby if he has enough points? Does he wheel right back in another 3 weeks to race in The Lexington which is only a 20-pointer? If he does that, he would be wheeling back in 3 weeks yet again for The Derby. That would truly be old-school. Three races in a row off only 3 weeks rest.
Eddie’s New Dream won the irish O’Brien today–she had missed a week of training with a fever—Forbidden Kingdom has a lot more time than Eddie did–The race used to be called the Saint Patricks Day—but irish O’Brien, a Cal-bred filly won the race from way behind–two yea5rs in a row, and both times was 7-1 odds—so now it’s for Cal-breds, and named the Irish O’Brien…
I love info like that. Nice job.
It was good to hear that Joel Rosario has opted to remain stateside and ride Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby. If they (horse & rider) can replicate their Risen Star performance, the Louisiana Derby is theirs for the taking.
I drew a line through Rattle N Roll’s performance in the FOY, where he was bottled up, on the inside, during the backstretch run. Positioned on the far outside, in P/P #9, for the La. Derby, should be of benefit for his closing style and avoid traffic problems like he experienced in the FOY. I’ll key Epicenter and RNR in the first two slots, with ALL underneath in the 3rd and 4th spots. That is: 6,9/ 6,9/ All, All. (superfecta wager).
Brad Cox has Zoros entered. He’ll be making a major step up in class. His late pace figure of 111, last out, is scary.
One thing to reminder regarding Epicenter’s win in the Risen Star, Rosario had him geared down, during the late stretch run. His last recorded work was a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.80 (1/14) on 3-14. It remains to be seen if Asmussen will give him one more work, prior to the La. Derby. We’ll see.
Edit;
One thing to remember (not reminder). Please excuse.
A nice 12-race card at Fairgrounds next Saturday on Louisiana Derby Day. The Louisiana Derby will run as the 12th and final race on the program. The 11th race is The Louisiana Oaks featuring the return of Echo Zulu who drew the #1 post in a small 6-horse field. With her speed, the rail shouldn’t be a problem for Echo Zulu. Returning from a layoff is more of a concern to me. Whatever. That late Daily Double of Echo Zulu to Epicenter should be a very popular bet. Overbet? Maybe/probably. If it hits, it will most likely pay peanuts.
Thanks for the heads up on Echo Zulu Tommy, I didn’t know they drew that race so early!
Nashville got back on track at Fairgrounds yesterday stopping the clock in 1:08 and change. I thought that I heard the race caller say that it was the fastest 6-furlong race of the meeting. Fast horse. Jockey Brian Hernandez looked like he really enjoyed the ride. His main competitor broke bad, but it looked like he won very easily to me. Maybe Nashville starts to live up to all the hype.
Joel Rosario was named to ride Epicenter in next Saturday’s Louisiana Derby from the #6 post. Rattle N Roll drew the outside post position in the nine horse field. The very impressive Zozos will break from the #2 gate. Pioneer of Medina with Tyler Gaffalione named to ride drew #7. Galt returns from falling over another horse in The Fountain of Youth and will start from #8. Still a week away.
I expected Joel Rosario to skip the big money races in Dubai to stay home and ride Epicenter and Echo Zulu. I wonder if that was a Steve Asmussen decision or a Joel Rosario decision? Not that it matters.
Mike Welsch
@DRFWelsch
3/19/22 – Simplification couldn’t have looked better under expert handling by Jose Ortiz 5/8 101.81 in hand throughout finishing just outside a Tomlinson worker with big energy going out 3/4 114.21 up a mile 138.59
Thanks for posting Simplification’s latest work, Mark.
Now if Jose Ortiz can get him to change to the correct lead, in the Florida Derby, he’ll be tough to beat, IMO.
Even without the works Steve mentioned, just off his last performance, Epicenter looks tough in the Loui. Which is a huge bummer because I want some prices in these preps!
Hi Steve
In Due Time, (listed at #13 on this week’s Derby Rankings), is not listed as a Possible/Probable, on any of the final upcoming Derby prep races. Have you heard any rumblings as to where he might be pointed or is he off the Derby trail?
Thanks, Steve.
He hasnt worked since the Fountain of Youth, so I’ve put him on hold until he works or I hear something.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
All things considered, I thought IDT finished well in the FOY. He appears to be a colt that’s improving in every succeeding race.
I would think the Florida Derby is under consideration. We’ll see.
He’s looked good but his speed figures are terrible. I cant understand it.
IDK, Steve, In Due Time earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 100, in a one-mile AOC, finishing in 1:35 and change over the GP track, on February 4th. The fractions and final time were very similar to Simplification’s MMM win.
Granted, the fractions and final time in the FOY, were considerably slower. We’ll just have to wait and see how he progresses moving forward.
Just to be clear, with respect to the colts sired by Not This Time, on the Derby trail, I have In Due Time ranked 3rd behind Simplification (1st) and Epicenter (2nd).
Up to date notes….Forbidden Kingdom “missed a scheduled workout due to a minor temperature” while Taiba worked today going 1:00:6 for 5 furlongs….Taiba has been nominated for the Triple Crown races
I hope he recovers in plenty of time to run in The Santa Anita Derby on April 9th. That race is already looking like it will be very short on depth.
Short on depth maybe, but high on excitement. I can’t think of anything I’d rather watch than Forbidden Kingdom and Messier taking each other on in that race. So far they’re my two favorite three-year-olds, and I have no idea which one would win. I hope they’re both well that day.
Speaking of The Dubai World Cup and specifically of 100-point UAE Derby, I want to play against Pinehurst because I think he will struggle at the 1 3/16 mile distance. Pinehurst barely hung on to win in Saudi Arabia and that was only a mile. While it’s great to find a horse to “play against”, that’s only half the battle. I was looking at the possibles for The UAE Derby and it looks like it’s going to be a deep and talented field. There will likely be a few Japanese horses, a few Europeans, and maybe even a “house horse” or two in the race who are proven distance horses. Depending on the sequence of the races and the betting options, maybe the best thing to do is create a multi-race wager singling Life Is Good and Dr. Schivel and using all except Pinehurst in The UAE Derby. All that being said, BB horses have surprised me many times over the years(example: Country Grammer in Saudi Arabia).
That Dubai World Cup card looks fantastic and star-studded. If it didn’t start so early in the morning, 7:30am here in the East, I’d play the entire card. I prefer to concentrate on The Louisiana Derby card later on the same day.
Starts at 4:30 AM where I live
Casa Creed is another very popular horse here in The U.S. He is entered in the Al Quoz Sprint at 1200 meters(a hair under 6 furlongs) on the Same Dubai World Cup card. I’m a big fan of the horse, but, would play against him in this spot. Don’t we all love horses that make a big charge in the stretch? Even though Casa Creed won at six furlongs in last Summer’s Jaipur at Belmont, I believe that his best distance is 7 furlongs and that 6 furlongs is too short for him against top company. Again, another deep and talented field with European Group I winners. Finding the winner may not be so easy. I better stay focused on Fairgrounds.
Do we know if Joel Rosario will be riding Epicenter in The Louisiana Derby or Midnight Bourbon in the $12million Dubai World Cup on the same day? I know that there are about 5 hours between the races, but, I don’t think that even an SST can get him back to New Orleans in time. Even if it could, Uber drivers are notorious for “long-hauling” riders from Louis Armstrong International Airport to Fairgrounds.
Steve, I hope you have a better idea than I have on what is going to happen over the next few weeks of the Derby trail. it will be interesting to see how many of the present 16 will still be there after the major preps have been decided. Frankly, I’ll be surprised if five or so of the present Derby Sixteen aren’t found out by then but with a group that appears evenly matched anything can happen.
Without knowing who is going where for the major preps it’s hard to speculate on the possible line up for the Kentucky Derby. Of the six or seven colts that appear to have enough points to run in the Derby none seem real Derby horses but they have time to improve.
Your confidence in forgiving inexperienced colts has boosted my confidence with Charge It and We the People. These two colts and Zandon seem to have exceptional talent but with none having won a stakes race as yet you are just guessing or hoping or both. Lol.
Without a Derby prep this weekend the racing calendar lacks excitement. Hopefully, you have some racing gems for next week to fill the void. Thanks again Steve, for your tremendous work in making the Kentucky Derby much more than just a horse race.
Next week is mainly devoted to pedigrees, as there is little to write about. As for the 16 after the preps, all of the 16 will be running, so obviously some gotta win and some gotta lose, so you can count on several of them dropping out of contention and a few newcomers joining the list of contenders. So, yes, the Rankings will no doubt change dramatically
I’m looking forward to reading your comments about Rock N Roll’s pedigree along with all of the other 3 year-old stars.
That’s true, Steve. From memory, this is the first time when you haven’t been confident of ‘real’ Derby horses. The speed to speed breeding program over the past 40 or so years are beginning to define the US Thoroughbred as a miler to 9f. Runner.
A. P. Indy is saving the breed, god bless him.
Tapit is not doing that bad … is he?
History will place the Champion Sire as a source of Stamina …. and amazingly the source of the Flightlines of the present and the future… I am shocked you have not mentioned the scabbed Concorde since last year…! ha ha
Nelson, that’s the point. Ha ha Tapit, is from the A.P. Indy sire line. The sons, grandsons, daughters, granddaughters of A. P. Indy are ensuring that stamina stays in the US herd.
Yes, Flightline, we have to wait for the Met Mile for the return of the mighty horse. Mind you, I’m not sure Pletcher is looking forward to his return.
I’m a bit on tenterhooks at the moment, Liverpool is getting very close to Man City’s lead in the Premier league. The big match Man City vs Liverpool (City at home) is coming up soon. If City win they should win the title again. Yay!!
I watched Manchester City thrashing Manchester United 4 to 1 eleven days ago… the City is having a lot of fun!
the April 10 match is in my calendar (DAZN broadcast)…
Yes, Man United are the archenemy. I’ve been following City since childhood. I sometimes watch old late 60s & 70s matches on YouTube. Francis Lee was an idol, he was a successful horse trainer as well.
They have to beat Liverpool, and the will!!
They just dont run enough
Steve, if they run too much they’ll run out of puff. Lol.
There should be a mandate to forbid retiring a sound horse before he is 5-years-old …
Imagine the impact of this radical measure on the current breeding commercial schemes …. and the proliferation of fake vet reports recommending retirement of G1 horses due to bogus injuries and illnesses !
I remember a legendary trainer in Venezuela named Millard Faris Ziadie who ran most of his horses every two weeks if they were healthy … I believe he is the only trainer who attempted to win simultaneously the 1980 TC for females and the National TC with one filly… her name was Gelinotte. She ran every leg of the National TC only one week after winning each and every leg of the TC for fillies. The daughter of Never Bend and Mariachi by Princequillo won the two first legs against the colts but her titanic effort took its toll and was defeated in the 1 1/2 of the last leg… She was 3/4 length short of being in the Guinness World Records as the only filly to win two Triple Crowns…
Gelinotte’s unique feat attracted thousands of new racing fans and I know of many people naming their daughters after her…
Thanks Nelson, very interesting. Did Gelinotte produced any black type runners? You would love Australian racing, they still race every two to three weeks but more so during carnivals. Australian thoroughbreds have much heavier bone than US thoroughbreds. Lots of Danehill influence and Sir Tristram. The Star Kingdom type has gone.
The best progeny of Gelinotte were Real Forest and Geline, both by In Reality… they won some South Florida non-graded Stakes in the mid and late 80’s. All her progeny who ran were winners but no Black Types despite being mated with Alydar, Wild Again, Slew O’Gold and Private Account…
It is hard for me to follow Australian live racing due to time zone difference but I tried to watch Black Caviar and Winx making history there.
BTW I read the history of TJ Smith as per your suggestion…his 279 Group 1 wins could be a world record…! starting at twenty-five year old was advantageous. The T.J. Smith Stakes instituted at Randwick Racecourse in Sydney is a just homage to a matchless Trainer.
T.J. Smith was a genius trainer and extremely endearing, funny type of guy as well. One of my uncles new him quite well so was lucky enough to meet him. He didn’t think much of the Melbourne Cup – plodding geldings. He liked Classic and mile races and the Sydney Juvenile Triple Crown races. Melbourne has 2 year old races attached to the Sydney juvenile Triple Crown races as well. Very similar to the US Triple Crown races – you’d really enjoy following it.
P.S.: if you are interested, the Golden Slipper Stakes is being run today at Rosehill racecourse in Sydney.
She did. She is the dam of stakes winners Real Forest, an In Reality colt who won the 1987 Hialeah Sprint Championship, and Geline, who a minor stakes. She’s also the second dam of Trail City, who won the Gr. 2 Arlington Classic.
Thanks Ms Blacktype. I’ll follow through with the pedigrees.
No worries. I was intrigued enough by your post to look her up.
RE: Laurel Park, Saturday, 3-19, Race 10, Private Terms Stakes
Joe, by Declaration of War, out of an Arch mare, will be going for his 4th straight win at Laurel. The Elkstone Group homebred colt still has a chance to enter a Derby prep race down the road, if he wins the Private Terms Stakes race on Saturday, in impressive fashion. Irish War Cry was the last Laurel Park colt to make the Kentucky Derby (2017) but made a left turn coming out of the gate, wiping out three colts in the process.
He hasn’t raced since his 62K AOC win back in January, so I figured my $50.00 Futures win bet at 200-1, was money wasted, and it probably still is. However, if he wins the Private Terms Stakes, who knows, maybe a Derby prep race could be in the cards. We’ll see.
It would be great but you see so few Maryland based horses enter the Derby picture. Many Marylanders would rather win the Preakness than the Derby. But we’ll see.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
You’re probably right that the Preakness is where the connections will point Joe, (if he wins the Private Terms Stakes).
However, I’m holding out hope that they might consider the Wood Memorial, and secure enough points to make the Derby starting gate. The tail-female side of Joe’s pedigree is loaded with class and stamina influence, IMO.
Hey Steve
I just found out that Joe, was named for Joe Biden. 🙁
So I’m all caught up on the derby dozen list. So as much as I’m rooting for Classic Cuaseway (totally sentimental) Forbidden Kingdom because of Pharoah I’m not sure either one is a potential derby winner, truthfully at this point I’m still in a wait and see mode. Nobody has really stepped up in my mind, maybe somebody will in the final preps. Because I own shares in a Not This Time horse I’m keeping my eye on his kids to 🙂
Just curious, what is the sentimental connection to Giants Causeway?
I’ve been thinking about Smile Happy closing at 8-1 in each of the first 3 Kentucky Derby Future Pools and at 6-1 in Pool#4 which closed on Sunday. He has been consistently supported in all 4 pools. Maybe it’s the Mattress Mac money. Maybe it’s us, the loyal readers of Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings. But, maybe some of that support is people that notice all the speed horses that are likely to make the big race on May 7th. Epicenter, Forbidden Kingdom, White Abarrio, Early Voting, Charge It, and Classic Causeway all like to run on the lead. Simplification could return to his front running ways. If Messier somehow makes it into the race, he went to the lead in his huge last race at Santa Anita. Smile Happy could get a dream set-up like Monarchos did way back at the turn of the century(2001?). I see Rattle N Roll as a “live Longshot” as of right now, still almost 8 weeks from the big race. Kenny McPeek needs to get his 2 Aces the points that they need to make the lineup.
I know that some people will ask “Why would Simplification go back to his front running ways when he’s found the winning formula?” Well, we all know that if he draws the rail or even post #20, it will call for drastic measures and his jockey will want to get him out of there to avoid getting buried inside or caught real wide.
While I am loving the mix of speed and stamina in Smile Happy’s pedigree, I am less enamored with the breeding of Rattle N Roll(Connect-Jazz Tune by Johannesburg. But, I think that the value will be with Rattle N Roll. Rattle N Roll is the horse that I want to bet on Derby Day. With almost 8 weeks until The Derby, I’ll probably change my mind about 8 times between now and then.
Which horses will be the betting favorites in the final preps?
LOUISIANA DERBY: Epicenter or Zozos 🙂
FLORIDA DERBY: Simplification or White Abarrio
ARKANSAS DERBY: Secret Oath or We the People
WOOD MEMORIAL: Morello or Mo Donegal
BLUE GRASS STAKES: Smile Happy or Classic Causeway
SANTA ANITA DERBY: Forbidden Kingdom or Messier
Epicenter
Simplification
Secret Oath
Morello
Smile Happy
Messier
I think the filly will be favored but I like We The People to win…..
We the People gets the services of extremely gifted Flavien Prat which is a bonus as well.
I gave away my predictions by presenting my choices before the “or”. We disagree on the SA Derby. Betting should be very close between the Mess and FK. Biggest favorite will be Epicenter.
Messier.
I got the same projections except for the Wood Memorial where I see Early Voting taking a lot of money and I see Messier as the post-time favorite in the SA Derby… maybe the new trainer would introduce a degree of uncertainty but Messier will be seen as better at 9 furlongs… it will be close odds though.
LOUISIANA DERBY: Zozos esta volando en sus entrenamientos … pero Epicenter luce igualmente inmenso en privado… el hijo de Not This Time tendra un reto menos fuerte esta vez toda vez que no enfrentara a los altamente cotizados Smile Happy y Zandon.
Hope you decode this…LOL
Yes, it looks like a much softer field for Epicenter in the LA Derby than in his previous race. But I’m not yet willing to call him anything close to a lock.
No, and with Call Me Midnight and Zozos running as wild cards there’s no way Epicenter is a lock.
I’m hopeful money comes pouring in for the 2 you mention for the Louisiana Derby. I believe Pioneer of Medina has a big shot there.
I think PoM has a shot, but not a big shot. Will need to see the field, of course, before committing. Zozos will be tough.
With the first four, I completely agree with you. In the Blue Grass I think Classic Causeway will be favored. As for the Santa Anita Derby, I have no idea. Forbidden Kingdom and Messier are the two that have most impressed me so far, and when they meet, it might be the most exciting race of the season.
I wouldn’t be shocked if CC is favored, but I think that Tampa runners are not as well regarded when shipping to Kentucky.
Good point. But Classic Causeway has done more lately, and I think that should get him the favorite’s spot, even if he doesn’t turn out to be the better horse.
Hi Steve, Do you have any connection with Mark Casse? VERY curious whats going on with Barber Road. No works lately?Would figure the next race would be Arkansas Derby. Thanks as always!
John Ortiz trains Barber Road. He is listed as probable for the Arkansas Derby
I just read some news that Churchill is salvaging The Arlington Million along with 3 other Stakes races that were normally run that day at Arlington. This Arlington Million card will be run on a special one-day program at Churchill Downs in the middle of August when Churchill is usually closed. No word if the purse is being restored to $1million or if it’s a day or night card. I have mixed feeling about this. I don’t like when tracks poach the names of races from closed tracks. Run the races, but, come up with your own names. I feel the same way when I see Hollywood Park races being run at Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Los Alamitos.
Another report out today states that a horsemen’s group in Illinois will sue Churchill Downs for ‘underpayment of purses’ of around three quarters of a million bucks….
I hope they win. CD has a ot of nerve running a race and using the name of the track they destroyed,
If the colts are in disarray the fillies find their way…!
Looks like one of the top attractions looming into the 2022 Derby play will be the likely participation of a filly.
The first filly to win the Kentucky Derby was Regret in 1915. It was her 3-year-old debut and her 4th win to stay undefeated. She competed against colts 9 time and only 2 times against females in 1917.
Genuine Risk won in 1980 and 28 years later Winning Colors (in 1988). The three fillies were exalted to the Hall of Fame.
It would not come as a surprise that Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas is attempting to win the Derby with a filly; after all, he is the trainer with most fillies entered in the Classic history.
Starting in 1984, the coach entered Life’s Magic (8th) and champion Althea (19th) who were the post-time favorites. Lukas won his first Derby with Winning Colors in 1988. His last attempt to win with a filly was with Serena’s Song (16th) in 1995. Serena’s Song confirmed that a 9-furlong horse is not necessarily getting the additional furlong.
Secret Oath is following the classic Lukas’ play book. The artful Trainer weighs the overall quality of the leading colts before pitting his fillies against them. For instance, Winning Colors had won the 1 1/16-mile Santa Catalina Oaks clocking 1:42 flat without urging from Gary Stevens. It would not take a mathematician to find that she was faster than the leading colts, Lively One and Mi Preferido. The former had won the Santa Catalina in 1:43 4/5 and the latter was all in to win the San Felipe in 1: 42 2/5.
Lukas’ appraisals were confirmed when the big Filly won the Santa Anita Derby shaming those two chief colts in California. A first quarter in 22 1/5, followed by a 45 3/5, 1:09 2/5, 1:34 4/5, floating ahead and finishing in 13 seconds for a remarkable final time of 1:47 4/5 for 9 furlongs. It was too much for the field of 8 colts many of whom were not even able to take a peek at her striking hind quarters.
For the sake of simplicity I am not elaborating about the route taken by the other fillies and the quality of the colts they had to confront in each Derby trail.
Secret Oath got genetic license to win the Derby. Steve has already talked about Arrogate’s strengths.
Arrogate being by Unbridled’s Song makes him a grandson of Derby champion Unbridled and great grandson of Caro the sire of Winning Colors. Unbridled is prominent in the Derby panorama as he is the damsire of Orb. Unbridled is also the sire of Derby winner Grindstone who in turn is the sire of Derby victor Mine that Bird.
Unbridled constitutes the sire line of TC champion American Pharoah and Derby winner Always Dreaming. Unbridled is also the third damsire of Medina Spirit.
Another Derby winner, Real Quite is by Quiet American the damsire of Secret Oath. Her second granddam sire is Great Above the sire of the HOF Holy Bull. Finally, her third grandam sire, Hatchet Man is the broodmare sire of Derby winner Strike the Gold.
I believe that Secret Oath will be the favorite in the Arkansas Derby and that she will likely win the race as there is no outstanding colt there with the enough speed and/or class to defeat her. Then I can very well envision her parting a sea of testosterone to wear the mantle of Roses… And as all Winning Colors’ backers cried in 1988, it will be a win “for all the women of America!”
Winning Colors, as I remember was the post time favorite in the 1988 SA Derby…..then after her win she was reduced to 20-1 in the future book at Aqua Caliente in Tijuana, Mexico whereas a group of bettors bet thousands on this filly to win the KD Derby and collected approximately $1 million shortly thereafter.
John, She dusted the field wire to wire by 7 1/2 lengths on an unbelievably hot 98 degree April day at SA. I had a front row seat mid-stretch. She was actually 2nd choice at 5-2 to Lively One at 2-1 trained by Whittingham.
I read the book about those guys, they should’ve hired Steve to help write it….or me, or anybody on this site it was amateurish! Cool that they did it, and in many ways they were lucky!
Nelson, you weren’t a top math scholar were you? Too busy burning down the track and field? Lol. Seriously though, I have to beg to differ with you over your assumption concerning the outcome of the Arkansas Derby.
If We the People runs in the Arkansas Derby, which is extremely possible, Secret Oath will have more than she can handle. Good luck.
Nelson, I’m enthusiastic for Secret Oath in the Derby if for no other reason than giving the sport a MUCH-needed infusion of excitement and positivity. Thanks for the lowdown on her genes!
On the other hand, could US racing survive another tragedy like the horror of Eight Belles’ demise? Be very careful what you wish for.
Lukas also had Sharp Cat, who in 22 starts won 15 times.. favored in the Santa Anita Derby vs some good ones! I was on track to see his small filly Serena’s Song get dusted from the 14 post in the Big Cap—-and he also took over training for Azeri, and won 1 out of 7 starts with her…..heck, right off the bat he had Terlingua facing Flying Pasterc, Lukas had plenty of practice, racing his great Quarter Horse mare Native Empress vs males, but Thoroughbreds on dirt is a whole other ballgame, it’s a big ask—
Surfside looked invincible prior to the Santa Anita Derby, a cautionary tale for Secret Oath?
A lot if fillies have tried the SA Derby including Silver Spoon, who won…..another who was favored in the race and not trained by Lukas was Sweet Catomine, and she was involved in a strange to do about her trainer removing her from the grounds in an effort to avoid track officials, she was missing for a while!
The late Julio Canani was a gifted trainer and often an amusing character.
Another great piece Steve wonderful read & full of information. However IMO Forbidden Kingdom is a complete toss for me. I know we have had this Dosage Index talk before & realize times are changing but what has worked for so long I continue to use in my Futures in Vegas & Twin Spires Pools handicapping. The fact is he is an over the top 9.0 dosage & can be trusted. His fields have been week competition just ran them off their feet going as fast & as long as he can. More quality field or some pressure up front changes his appeal my thoughts. He may be this years Palace Malice sitting things up for an Orb to run by everyone late. Since it’s March Madness time less we not forget Duke guard Bobby Hurley’s Songandaprayer who blistered :44 for the half & 1:09 6f only to watch the cavalry charge Monarchos run by him for a layup at the buzzer. Something in my gut tells me Chad Brown likes Zandon/Early Voting by moving jocks around plus still believe Ken McPeek is loaded but playing possum till it matters Tiz A Bomb, Smile Happy, Rock n Roll all have points even Dash Attach with his 10 points going to the Lexington with a Win probably gets in. In a couple weeks it’s all going to come together time will tell who is this years Cinderella at the Big Dance but dosage index 9.0 is like a 16 seed to me. Give me some Raise A Native Mr. Prospector Fappino inbreeding rain or shine….
FK = real deal!
Thanks Jerry. He seems to be a love him or hate him horse. I have him ranked lower than most. But we’ll see
One thing to keep in mind about past Kentucky Deby winners, 10 out of the past 18 have been homebred, (same owner/breeder). With respect to this year’s top contenders on the Derby trail, only 4 are homebred.
They are,
Classic Causeway, Kentucky West Racing, (pointed to the Blue Grass)
Slow Down Andy, Reddam Racing, (pointed to the Blue Grass)
Pappacap, Rustlewood Farm, (pointed to the Florida Derby)
Secret Oath, Briland Farm, (pointed to the Arkansas Derby)
From my perspective, Classic Causeway will be the only one of those four that will be in the KD starting gate.
When checking off boxes, during the Derby handicapping process, suffice to say Classic Causeway should get an extra check mark for being a homebred.
With respect to the other three;
Pappacap has no chance in the Florida Derby.
Slow Down Andy, has no chance in the Blue Grass
Secret Oath, untested filly going up against top colts in the Arkansas Derby is not a good idea, IMO
I’m hopeful she comes out of the race in good order and will move on to race another day.
An extra checkmark? Because of a 10-8 advantage for homebred, in the past 18 years? That’s a small sample, and a subjective betting angle! I heard Slow Down Andy was looking at the Sunland race….I’m not tossing him just yet….same with Pappacap, Florida looks weak to me, the Bluegrass looks like the best prep, also The Wood Memorial might be tough this year! Santa Anita has a match race, I’m not sold on Forbidden Kingdom, although he did run a big one in last, 1:43 4/5 on that surface was solid….at least Classic Causeway had Irad, it looks like Prat and Irad will be facing off at Daratoga, this Summer, and they may meet up in the Derby, with CC and Zandon.
I hate my cracked up phone!!!!
Yes indeed, Classic Causeway gets an extra check mark for being a homebred!
Considering there are not that many homebreds running in the KD, in any given year, I’d say a 56% winning average is not too shabby. BTW, when you state, “That’s a small sample, and a subjective betting angle”, I’d venture to say handicapping a horse race is “ALWAYS SUBJECTIVE”.
What I really find puzzling in your comment, is the following, “Florida looks weak to me”. Well, let’s take a look at the probable starters.
Simplification, 1st in the FOY, 2nd in the Holy Bull and 1st in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Home track is a plus.
White Abarrio, 1st in the Holy Bull, home track is a plus
Tiz the Bomb, 1st in the John Battaglia
Charge It, (Pletcher’s best Derby colt? Looks that way to me)
Based on your comment that you’re not tossing Pappacap, because “Florida looks weak to me”, I suggest you take a closer look at the afore mentioned colts, (Simplification, White Abarrio, Tiz the Bomb and Charge it) and what they’ve accomplished since turning 3 years old. What has Pappacap accomplished since turning 3 yrs. old? He was 8th in the Risen Star, and 3rd in the Lecomte. If Pappacap hits the board in the Florida Derby, I’ll be shocked.
Have a good evening, Matthew W.
Good morning, Matthew W
Upon further review, make that 11 out of the past 18 KD winners have been homebred (61% ).
BTW, I never stated it was an “advantage” to be a homebred, I merely stated the statistical comparison of homebreds vs non-homebreds winning the Derby. I stand by my statement, “when checking off boxes, during the Derby handicapping process, suffice to say Classic Causeway should get an extra check mark for being a homebred”.
Good luck with Pappacap in the Florida Derby, he’ll need all the luck he can get. 🙂
Thanks, I’m not playing Pappacap. Never have. Nice colt, though.
You’re welcome, Matthew W
If you plan on betting the Florida Derby, I highly recommend Simplification as the likely winner. It is my sincere belief that he’ll turn the tables on White Abarrio this time.
Charge it, is the one I fear the most.
Matthew, you are correct about the perceived advantage of a homebred Derby horse. Unless one can explain why it’s a factor, it shouldn’t be considered as one. Anyway, Country House and Mandaloun shouldn’t count for statistical purposes. If you go back 25 years, only 9 homebreds finished first in the Derby. But I disagree about the Florida Derby. It looks to be a solid race.
I guess I was just thinking of the recent Tampa race—so far there’s been the Messier performance that I liked–and the Risen Star also looked good, to me—in Horse racing everybody has an opinion or twenty—we all cannot agree on everything, and when we have a difference of opinion there should be zero bad blood, about it! So far I have done very well betting the Derby preps—I had Call Me Midnight, and had him big at 28-1….then I bet Slow Down Andy–big–and lost….the other day I put up a 4-horse tri box and won, so that’s 2 wins out of 3 plays—I’ll be looking closely at the next round of preps—from a distance I like Morello, LOVED how the horse was able to sit back off of the early pace—while not being very far behind—-I also like Smile Happy, Zandon, Mo Donegal—Sinplification, also—but he does stay on his left lead, maybe if he switches he will be even better…..
When you cash on a 28-1 shot on the Derby trail, anything more is just icing. 🙂
Entries for the LA Derby are drawn on Saturday. A whole week to handicap!
Early Voting’s Beyer for the Withers (originally a paltry 78) has just been promoted to an 87 in light of the performances of Un Ojo and another runner in the Rebel.
Un Ojo (2nd in Withers) won in Arkensas, Grantham (4th in Withers) was second in Florida….
Regarding In Due Time.
The FOY had 2 horses go down who’s rider has been suspended.
He was behind traffic and couldn’t get out.
I feel his TG figure should be take. With a grain of salt.
Simplification is getting good. He actually checked in the backstretch and then came widest of all to win, I believe on the wrong lead. This horse looks as he is Camille of making a couple of moves in a race which is important is a race such as the Derby.
GL
John
Enjoyable and enlightening week 9 as usual.
No big changes expected until week 11 after the Louisiana, UAE and Sunland Derbies. The main questions to be answered in the former are about Rattle N Roll rebound, the potential of Cyberknife and Zozos as Derby horses and if Pioneer of Medina would improve enough to beat the favored Epicenter this time going 1 3/16 mile.
I like you moving up Epicenter, Secret Oath, Classic Causeway and Forbidden Kingdom and restoring Early Voting. As you said, only two (3-year-old) preps seem to be inadequate in terms of foundation but the son of Gun Runner might be up to the challenge. I know you are covering pedigrees next week but I would like to mention that Early Voting’s dam is half sister to Champion Sprinter and very dependable Sire Speightstown and full to Blue Grass winner Irap.
The Derby will very likely be run under a very hot pace if Early Voting gets the exacta in the Wood Memorial. Chad Brown is vying for two Derby entrants and it seems like Pletcher’s troop will be reduced to Emmanuel, Mo Donegal, Pioneer of Medina and Charge It.
Your comments about Charge It are compelling and I can not wait to see how the son of Tapit performs in the Florida Derby…!
Hey, Nelson. Ever since Street Sense in 2007, two preps has been the way to go. In fact, the majority of Derby winners since then had just two starts as 3 year olds. But only two of them had fewer than 3 starts as 2 year olds: Big Brown (one start at 2) and Animal Kingdom (two starts at 2). So…Smile Happy, Zandon, and Early Voting have to be special to win the Derby. I’m fairly certain that SH is special.
You are right in that there have been 8 Derby winners with only 2-prep races as 3-year-olds since 2007.
If you expand the sampling to take the last 22 years you will see that also 8 winners show three (3) 3-y-o preps and 6 winners got four (4) 3-year-old preps.
the last 5 Derby winners ran 3 and 4 times in 3-year-old preps…!
Anyways, as you said, it all depends on the quality and grit of the horse … after all, modern trainers seem to be developing horses mainly in the mornings rather than running in the afternoons…!
I am at this moment reviewing the races of a risen super gal named Secret Oath… she is one with good foundation and upward trending form.
Funny that some of those “modern trainers” used to be old-fashioned trainers!
BTW, you can’t count Authentic’s record in regard to number of 3yo preps. The Derby was in September.
Steve if you are perplexed as long as you have been doing this at least that makes me feel a bit better by still not being sure of any colt at this point. Your case for each one, filly included I have read and read again.
As for Messier and not switching trainers at this point would say the owner is extremely loyal to Baffert. Might be just to heck with the Triple Crown races we will beat them this summer and in the fall and go to the Breeder’s Cup. Honestly don’t know. Not doing the sport any good at all.
I like going by Beyer Speed figures as one of the tools I use in my handicapping. I must say I am completely baffled by the raising of Early Voting dismal 78 BSF to a solid 87 by Beyer in the Withers. He said he did this because the runners finishing behind Early Voting have gone on and ran well since. This makes no sense to me be because how a horse performs after a race should not lead to a change in a BSF for a race that is now in the past.
I agree with you 100%. That’s a pretty big difference. I will say this. The times have seemed very slow to me for the entire Aqueduct meet and I don’t trust the Beyers from this meet. But, to change BSFs because horses ran better in their next races doesn’t seem right.
The BS in BSF doesn’t stand for Beyer Speed.
Backposting the figures. ..means he isn’t even confident in HIS OWN FIGURES…….
Does the BS stand for Be Suspicious?
A slow week as far as Kentucky Derby Points/prep races are concerned. Slow is the wrong word because there aren’t any of those races. I was looking at the schedule and things really heat up the following Saturday, March 26th, with The UAE Derby and The Louisiana Derby. The very next day, Sunday the 27th, is The Sunland Derby. The following Saturday, April 2nd, we get The Florida Derby, The Arkansas Derby, and The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes. The Saturday after that, April 9th, comes The Wood Memorial, The Bluegrass, and The Santa Anita Derby. What a day that’s going to be. Finally, on April 16th, The Lexington is the final points race and a last chance for a “bubble” horse to make the starting lineup in Louisville on May 7th. The Sunland Derby is a 50-pointer and The Lexington is only a 20-pointer. The rest of those races are 100-pointers. My point is that I better take it easy this weekend to preserve my bankroll for all the great racing ahead.
The UAE Derby is run at a distance of 1 3/16 miles and The Lexington at 1 1/16 miles. The rest of them are at 1 1/8 miles.
I haven’t been paying attention to the foreign prep races, but, there are still 2 of those to be run. On March 26th, The Fukuryu in Japan will be contested over only 1 mile and is a 40 pointer. On March 31st, which is oddly a Thursday by my calculations, The Cardinal Condition Stakes will be run at Chelmsford City on Tapeta track over 1 mile. It’s only a 30-pointer. I guess I’ll start paying attention after one of these races produces a Derby winner.
If all of those races aren’t enough “action” for you, Churchill Downs will be offering their 5th and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager on March 31st to April 2nd. Like I’ve said before, those things seem to come up every couple of weeks. With 3-31 being a Thursday and 4-2 being a Saturday, those dates look a little weird to me. Don’t those pools usually run from Friday to Sunday?
I thought I read that CD planned to change it up a bit for the last pool, by ending the wagering PRIOR to those prep races being run on the 2nd. Assuming then they’d need to close the pool around 5PM ET? However, at this moment the Kentucky Derby website shows a closing time of 6PM ET.
Yes – it’s a true Future Wager for Pool Five – they will close the pools before the first race of the three preps. So if you bet a horse and he finishes off the board in prep and doesn’t get in – you snooze you loose.
This will be fun.
I could be wrong, but, I think that The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes could be a “night game”,
Steve, at the end of your paragraph on Simplification, you wrote “All he has to do now is run somewhere other than Gulfstream.” Do you think it unwise to enter him in the Florida Derby? It didn’t hurt MaxSec and Justify to run at just one track prior to the Derby. If not GP, where?
I would probably do the same thing. Try to get a grade 1 first on a track you love and then worry about the Derby. I think Gulfstream is more suitable to certain horses than Santa Anita. Some horses love Gufstrream but dont run as well on bigger deeper tracks. But first things first then hope for the best.
Agree. Even a previous race over the CD oval doesn’t guarantee a good effort in the Derby.
The record of horses with a race at CD is terrible in the Derby. You wouldnt think so
I always thought it was more a ‘security blanket’ for the trainer than being an asset for the horse. Baffert’s success shows how necessary a race at Churchill is needed to win the Kentucky Derby.
Fabulous! I am feeling the Derby adrenaline beginning to surge!!
Hope it helps brighten your day
Been tracking Cyberknife as well.
He’s was green as willow when asked in September as Garcia struggled him down the stretch. But he’s made limited progress in each start so that additional work before the Ark Derby v LA Derby will assist. He bled power, glibness and speed through the tightest controls (Garcia & Geroux) in each start. If he gets his act together before it’s showtime, he’ll qualify. Speed coupled with the distance influences from his pedigree and family make him dangerous.
This colt is really fast.
I really hope all the speed horses, Classic Causeway, Epicenter, and Forbidden Kingdom, make it to the derby. In fact I’d like to see one more added. #RabbitsWanted
Steve, appreciate another week of insight and wonderful writing. The upcoming preps should be loaded with excitement; battle tested horses vs. hyped horses stepping up in class. After reading this weeks rankings, I find it hard not to root for Simplification and his connections. This years class might be light on numbers but the intrigue is incredible. A filly near the top, an apparent world class sprinter as pre race favorite, ineligible horses, front runners galore, classy two year olds having to perform huge just to make the derby, and high level trainers being quoted with the utmost confidence in their horses. While watching “ We the people” I could not understand why Florent Geroux was riding the horse so high up, appreciate you mentioning the reasoning. The way he finishes, it would seem difficult to pass him down the long stretch at Churchill, were he to have his head in front at the top of the lane. Looking forward to the great races coming up, next weeks rankings, and your final derby analysis.
Thank you very much Jay. Excellent synopsis of the whole picture
With. Commandperformance underperforming in his MSW and Tiz The Bomb still being very questionable on dirt my lone live KDFW horse is 56-1 Zandon way back in KDFW1. I like my chances with Zandon. Zandon gets a new jockey, the talented Flavien Prat. Zandon is training up a storm and should be ready to fire a big shot in the Bluegrass. He probably would get in the derby with a third , but I would want a strong second or a win heading into the KY Derby. Forbidden Kingdom will add serious pace to the derby and IMO this could compromise the chances of Epicenter and Classic Causeway who won’t be able to cruise to the lead with hell bent FK in the race. This derby could have a very hot pace which could set it up for an off the pace horse such as Zandon. A lot can happen between now and derby day, hoping all of the horses stay healthy and we are all in for a treat. It will be odd to see Messier in the Santa Anita Derby if he is still with Baffert. Messier deserves a shot at the roses and IMO if he can get derby points in the SA Derby than the Messier vs. Forbidden Kingdom matchup becomes even more exciting.
S. Haskin-
Nice rundown of contenders for KD 2022. Glad to read that Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables have decided on the Kentucky Derby path for Early Voting. Mint Juleps preferred over crab cakes. Good decision. LOL. A couple of Withers colts have returned to run well in their next-out races. Hope Early Voting comes out running in the Wood Memorial. He will have a few new faces to contend with. As usual, Todd Pletcher and Steve Assmussen. No surprise. I can only keep my fingers crossed.
On another note, would you happen to know if Mark Casse plans to keep Violence and Golden Glider on the KD 2022 Trail?
Thanks for the updates.
7.5 Furlongs
I will try to find out for next weeks Rankings
Edit #1 Volcanic, not Violence.
Edit #2 Asmussen, not Assmussen.
All of Forbidden Kingdom’s works going into his last had a target 10 lengths in front of him.
Here’s a question for all: Which of these 16 hopefuls MOST needs to win the final prep? Any reason is acceptable. (But earning Derby points is not a consideration for the question because a 2nd or a 3rd will likely be enough to qualify.)
Since there are distance questions I guess Forbidden Kingdom “needs” to win his next race, or stay home!
He’s one of a few.
Agree. Forbidden Kingdom would be No. 1
But if Forbidden Kingdom gets edged out by Messier and Messier doesn’t go in the Derby, I don’t think that loss would pose any problem.
I say Morello. He’s never been 2 turns.
If Forbidden Kingdom wins the Santa Anita Derby by a pole all the others may as well stay home. Lol. Just to be different I’ll say White Abarrio – distance concerns.
Agreed!
Good answers so far. Another to consider…#14 Rattle N Roll, who needs a win after such a dull 3yo debut. And can you guess what these hopefuls have in common?: #2 Zandon, #10 Emmanuel, #13 In Due Time, and #15 Pioneer of Medina.
All are without a stakes win, which is pretty much a requirement for Derby glory.
I think Kenny would be thrilled with a fast closing 2nd to Epicenter.
Mo Donegal is the one I think needs to win.
Steve, Charge It is from a daughter of Take Charge Lady, I’ll Take Charge, while Will Take Charge is from Take Charge Lady.
In this muddled Derby year the three colts I really like, Zandon, We the People and Charge It, have so much talent but so little experience that the Kentucky Derby is probably the last race they should be pointed toward. Modern racing I guess.
Now, I have the pleasure to fully read your latest Derby Rankings. I always read your opinion on the colts I like first then take in your opinion on their opponents. Thus far, there doesn’t appear to be anything to worry about yet.
What they should and shouldnt do means nothing anymore. Everyone is a Derby horse now.
You’re right of course, Steve. Mind you, the Blue Grass Stakes, Arkansas Derby, and the Florida Derby are starting to take shape into tough races. Let’s just hope for the best.
“because of the lack of big-name stallions he is an outcross through four generations”
I’m confused about this snippet on White Abarrio. His grandsires are Tapit and Into Mischief. Aren’t these the biggest stallions of the past decade?
Big name might have been the wrong word. You rarely if ever see horses inbred to Tapit or Into Mischief or most of the other sires in his pedigree
Thanks, as always, for your weekly list, Steve. I’ve been following your Derby rankings since the Bloodhorse days, starting 20+ years ago. No one in the industry tracks the Derby trail better than you — and it’s not even close. Anyway, onto my question…
There’s a lot of love for Morello right now, and it’s easy to see why — fast figs, super professional. My question is this: has any horse in the past 50 years won the Derby with only one two-turn race on his resume going into the Derby? Because that’s the path that Morello is on. I know the Derby rules are changing — Big Brown and Justify have shown us that — but I still believe that two-turn experience and foundation have some sort of importance, even if that importance is dwindling as the breed — and training methods — continue to evolve.
Lance, I checked out that very question a couple of years ago. Went back to 1970 and found only one Derby winner that had just one prior two-turn race. I should say first-place finisher, not winner. It was Maximum Security in 2019.
Thanks, EddieF. Good stuff.
I appreciate that Lance. Thank you very much. There are many historical trends that people no longer swear by. It certainly isnt ideal but it all depends on how good he looks in the Wood. Remember, I have him ranked 5th, not first. And horses dont do it because there is only one major prep at a flat mile so few have tried it. Several have won the Derby running a two-turn mile at SA then going 1 1/8 miles for the first time
Even if a Derby handicapper has come up with a winning profile, it doesn’t mean that a negative on one trend will eliminate that horse from consideration. I’ve created a Derby winner’s profile, and I narrow the field to the five or six runners with the fewest negatives.
Thanks, Steve! Looking forward to your next installment. And the next and the next. Always a treat to see your fresh list on a Monday.
Jack Christopher is back working out again. I have no idea what their plans are.
Steve I’m still waiting on some of the Baffert derby horses to switch barns especially Messier.
Everyone is. They’re really pushing it. Its all about Messier although dont forget about Doppelganger.
If Forbidden Kingdom (side note: 5-1 in Derby future pool, what the?!?!?!) somehow wins the Derby this year it can officially be known as a race that whoever is first around the first turn/backside wins which would be incredibly disappointing as we can definitely close the door on any on E or EP ever winning again.
He’s as worthy as any.
Other than not knowing what E and EP are I totally agree.
Forbidden Kingdom looks about as E (as in runs on the lead) as it gets. Probably a Brisnet E8. Let’s hope for a something other than a merry-go-round this year.
Is it only me or does anyone else mute volume when Searling and Wolfendale speak?
Over the past few weeks I thought Andy Serling had changed then, on Saturday, he was back to his best form. If you want to turn people away from racing, Andy is the best. Yes, I just mute Andy most of the time. Maggie is just over enthusiastic but at times the mute is in order. Lol.
I can listen to Richard Migliore, Gary Stevens all day. For each his own I guess.
I like Acacia Courtney! And most of the other ladies, too. Matt Carothers is an excellent handicapper.
Yes, I like Acacia as well and Millie Ball. Handicapper, Jeff Siegel is very astute.
Agree!
Sorry… but some producer should remake THE COOLER at the race track with Millie as the lead in casting. All she needs to do is play herself. When I hear her voice I can feel my IQ starting to drop and a headache coming on. If you can listen to her and do… just go the other way and you’ll avoid disaster. Now that I think about it I can’t imagine a screenplay with her playing the lead that could possibly have a happy ending. Well, maybe I could but it would depend on your idea of happy in this cinematic case.
Good movie!
Searling’s ego can deal w/, he’s classless for bashing horses. Deal breaker!
Hey Mike, we agree, LOl. Put them on mute!
Jeff, kudos!
Due to her Cupie voice and rushed speech I used to think Maggie was a lightweight until I learned she was an expert horse woman and is also married to a highly regarded trainer. If she would just slow down a little! My favorite among the women is Britney Eurton, who has the right chops, is easy to follow, and usually has something to say. Also, she has a real fashion sense — a rarity among horse people, many of whom who dress like the (conservative) 1960s never ended.
She’s wonderful- real deal! Maggie, horrible!
Another mixed bunch this year with no real standouts. I am looking forward to next week’s deeper pedigree analysis, as we have three by Not This Time, five by Big Name Sires, and some interesting dam lines to consider. I am quite fond of not-regally-bred horses who beat the pants of the Big Sire competition 🙂
Steve, thanks for the superb detail on Derby hopefuls, including the news about the exciting colt Zozos. Cox had been giving every indication that the Munnings colt would get a chance in one of the final preps. I’ll be back with a few points of discussion, but first….Do you think that this year we’ll get over the long string of early-speed Derby winners? We’ve got some nice speedy colts and nice closers, too. I know it’s impossible to predict the pace scenario this far out, but if you have any insights I’d love to hear them.
I wish we could break it up with some closers. Derby is getting to be a boring race to watch. Everything depends on Forbidden Kingdom. if he runs i think we’ll see a horse come from off the pace. Iff hes not Epicenter could wire the field. another question is how far White abarrio wants to go and if Simplification continues to come from off the pace.
Thanks! I tend to agree with your assessment. But the final preps will separate the men from the boys, so things should be clearer by April 9.
I sure hope so.
Steve, there’s plenty of blazing speed to compromise a few distance limited front runners. Morello is a presser bred to get the classic distance. Although, he’s raced exclusively at Aqueduct (deep tiring track) he’s made it look easy. Would not be surprised if this Asmussen entry wins the big prize.
Eddie, kudo’s for remarks on CC.
Thanks, Mike! Assuming you’re referring to earlier comments.
I am.
Steve: At a moment on the Derby trail when there are still many more questions than answers, you have made sense out of an impossible to fathom situation. Kudos to you!
Thanks, but i didnt know i made sense out of anything. Lol
Mr. Haskin, great article! Thank you!
Thanks Mike
At least it’s clearer to me now. After the first 5 or 6 on my list, it’s a crap shoot.
I just got back from visiting the Circa at the Golden Gate and placed the following Derby Futures wagers: $20 on Ethereal Road at 70-1; Pressed Rattle and Roll for $10 at 30-1; and first wager on We the People $10 at 50-1; I would have liked higher odds but I think the horse just was added. For now, I have potential $1k win on Smile Happy (50-1); $1,100 win on Rattle and Roll mostly at 22-1; $2,350 win on Secret Oath (85-1 and 65-1) and $3k on Tiz the Bomb (120-1). Incidentally, in downtown Las Vegas, there is only one racebook left, at the Golden Nugget; everything else are sportsbooks only! I feel old!
I am really looking forward to the key prep races coming up; looking forward to be ‘Wowed’!
Thanks for the awesome beginning of the week reading; mu week doesn’t start until I read!
Yes, I noticed when I was at Circa last month – trend is going Sports book and just big days of horse racing. Some nice bets on Secret Oath.
Derbyologist; Thanks very much! I remember Winning Colors; seems we get a winning filly in the Derby every generation or so!
Good luck with those bets biggy312.
I’ve got a $100.00 win bet on Simplification at 65-1 at the Golden Nugget, and another $100.00 win bet on Simplification, at 43-1, in Derby Futures Pool 2.
Rattle N Roll, ($100.00 to win at 34-1)
Emmanuel, ($50.00 to win at 75-1)
In addition, I boxed Simplification with the entire Pool 2 field, which includes White Abarrio at 171-1, in my exacta wagers.
Best case scenario for me, Simplification wins the KD and White Abarrio finishes 2nd.
65-1 wager returns $6.600.00
43-1 wager returns $4,480.00
$2.00 exacta wager returns $7,183.00
Total return (if Simplification wins the Derby and White Abarrio finishes 2nd) = $18,263.00.
Is this a pipe dream? Without question.
BTW, Classic Causeway closed at 51-1, in Derby Futures Pool 2. I’ve got him boxed with Simplification as well.
Needless to say, I’m all in on Simplification winning the Kentucky Derby. 🙂
Bill; Thanks, and best of luck with your wagers as well! I really hope you cash your best outcome bets: $18k would be a major haul! Awesome exacta futures wager! I remember you jumping on Simplification real early this year: It is a great feeling to have starters in the gate at highly-overlaid odds!
I hope you big-time spenders are gonna slip me a few bucks for services rendered.
Absolutely, Steve! Seriously, would not be in position to cash for 4th year in a row without your comprehensive insights. Dinner on me in Vegas if I cash!
You got it. Buffet pig-out
No problem, Steve.
I’ll certainly keep you in mind if Simplification wins the Derby.
Fingers and toes crossed. 🙂
I have that in writing. It is a good story.
Hey biggy312
” It is a great feeling to have starters in the gate at highly overlaid odds”.
You said it biggy312, I love those overlaid odds that Simplification and White Abarrio closed at, in Derby Futures Pool 2.
I was floored when White Abarrio closed at 171-1. However, after winning the Holy Bull, those odds dropped to 18-1, in Derby Futures Pool 3.
I’m looking forward to the Florida Derby (April 2nd) when Simplification and White Abarrio square off for a second time.
From my perspective, there’s a good chance that Simplification will turn the tables on White Abarrio this time.
If there’s a horse that fits the title of a “Cinderella Horse” in this year’s Derby, look no further than Simplification.
That “Cinderella” story fits the owner (Tami Bobo) and the trainer (Antonio Sano) as well. Both overcame challenging issues early on, in their lives. Hats off to both of these very impressive individuals.
I hope those are your returns and not your bets, Lol. Boy are you loaded with live action. Well done
Steve:
Thanks! Yes, those are returns, not wagers! I get vicarious pleasure out of watching folks here who wager what I am happy to win! I am also looking forward to a Derby with a closer winning for a change!
Me too
The best Triple Crown races I’ve ever seen……
1) 1989 Preakness—-Best Horse Race I have ever seen! Pat Day (Easy Goer) goes past Pat Valenzuela (Sunday Silence) down backstretch, forcing a take-up, then PVal comes up alongside, crowding Day and Easy Goer, and Day eventually turns Easy’s head out to see his competitor, despite being only inches from the front……..
2) 1978 Belmont—-After two strong seconds to Affirmed, Alydar finally gets his nose in front, only to test the mettle of a champion!
3) 1997 Preakness—-Afyer waiting nine minutes for the outside horse to load, a terrific race unfolded! Kent D keeps Free House on the rail, pinching back Touch Gold, and Silver Charm wins by one inch!
4) 2021 Kentucky Derby—-4 horses lined up across the track, for the duration of the stretch!
Nice list! For me, it was 2007 Belmont where Rags to Riches beat Curlin and 1999 Derby: Charismatic was my first major win in horse racing: I had $25 to win on him. He might have won the Yriple Crown if he had not broken leg in stretch and Chris Antley saved his life by holding his injured leg…
Excellent choices, Matthew. Last year’s Derby finish doesn’t get the respect it deserves.
2021 was extremely rare for the Derby. and all top horses. Three went on to win grade 1 stakes and the other ran huge in the BC Classic, Touch Gold was 5 lengths the best in that Preakness. Worst stumble I ever saw coming out of the gate. Tore half his hoof off, taken up twice almost went into the rail. Still got beat about a length. His quarter crack never healed, but he still won the Belmont and Haskell. Foot deteriorated after that.
“I wonder who Churchill Downs is rooting for?” Every once in awhile Steve Haskin slips a “Zinger” in there. I understand and admire wanting to be loyal to your trainer, but, you only get one chance to run in The Derby and Derby horses don’t come around very often to most owners. I don’t understand why owners wouldn’t make the change to be able to compete in America’s most famous horse race. In fact, I would think that BB would be encouraging them to make the change so that they could take part in what could be a once in a lifetime experience. It’s not just Messier. What about the filly Adare Manor? She deserves the chance to run in The Kentucky Oaks.
I certainly understand if they switched especially considering how many other good horses they have with Baffert. Bob has won so many Derbys why not tell them its ok to move him unless hes sure he will win both cases. But its getting late.
Adare Manor was not even nominated for the Oaks.
Unless I read it wrong, I don’t believe Baffert nominated any of his fillies?
I didn’t know that.
Barring injury or illness, Messier will be with a new trainer before entries for the SA Derby are taken.
I don’t understand why Tiz the Bomb would go to The Florida Derby. Would Gulfstream play to his style of running? Oaklawn would be better. Why wouldn’t he just return to Turfway for The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes? He’s proven on the Tapeta and it’s a 100-pointer. But, maybe the connections want a true gauge of his ability on a dirt track against top company. I’m sure that they know best.
Trainers always throw names around. Kenny also has Dash Attack for the Arkansas Derby
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another in-depth analysis on your top Derby contenders. The final upcoming prep races should separate the contenders from the pretenders.
In past years, you’ve mentioned the Rasmussen Factor breeding, when it applies, but this year, I haven’t seen any reference to the Rasmussen Factor, (although I might have missed it in your Derby Rankings: Week 1 through Week 9).
With respect to Simplification, there is Rasmussen Factor breeding (siblings descended from the same reine-de-course (superior dam) through five generations) in his sire, dam sire and second dam sire, Ballado’s Halo’s pedigree.
I’m wondering if you feel the Rasmussen Factor is no longer in vogue, or if you plan on mentioning it in the upcoming weeks, whenever it appears in the pedigree of any given horse.
As you probably know by now, Simplification has been my top Derby horse since his win in the MMM Stakes, on New Year’s Day.
Thanks again for providing your insight on the Derby trail, week after week. It’s much appreciated by all your followers.
Thanks Bill. No stakes next week, nothing going on. That is my pedigree week.
Looks like we might be talking about the ASMUSSEN Factor after the Derby.
You’re welcome, Steve
I’ll be looking forward to your “pedigree week”, and what you have to say about Simplification’s pedigree.
Things are really starting to get interesting.
Slow Down Andy going to The Sunland Derby is interesting. It’s only a 50-pointer, but, “Andy” would certainly be a big favorite to win the race. But, you never know. I can remember BB and Todd Pletcher supporting/using that race in the past. Maybe a surprising entrant or two might show up. Slow Down Andy going to New Mexico certainly hurts the depth of The Santa Anita Derby. Am I wrong to say that The Santa Anita Derby is the biggest event of the year at Santa Anita these days? I would hate seeing a 5-horse Santa Anita Derby field even if it featured a showdown between Forbidden Kingdom and Messier. I expect that BB will have at least one other entrant. Maybe even a “Rabbit”.
They interviewed McPeak yesterday he said R and R was not ready for the FOY but he felt he would get better experience from a race then just breezing. He said he will be 100 percent ready for the LA derby I’m not a derby futures but 32 to 1 – I had to go that way . Right now I’m on Epicenters band wagon until R and R gets ( hopefully) qualified
My only problem with that is if youre going to give a horse only two preps i dont like one being wasted as a work substitute and doing nothing. They need to get something out of these races..and points. The one positive is the La. Derby being 1 3/16 miles.
We The People!! The only one I have shares in left on the Derby trail
Nothing wrong with that. Very talented horse, Just a bit behind.