Derby Rankings: Week 9
This is it. Nothing left but the big 100-point races that will make or break the Derby dreams of many trainers and owners. Right now they all have a chance, but it’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Lots of intriguing new faces on the Rankings this week as we take a shot and try to uncover some hidden stars. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Week 9, Mar. 15
By Steve Haskin
1. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
He still has the strongest Thoro-Graph pattern and appears to be heading for a peak performance on the first Saturday in May. Although some feel he might be at a disadvantage having to come from far back, that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Yes, he was five lengths back at the eighth pole in the Fountain of Youth, but that was an aberration because he likely was a little dull the first part of the race coming off a huge effort and fast Thoro-Graph number in the Holy Bull Stakes. The fact is, in his five previous starts, the average distance he was behind at the half-mile call was 4 1/2 lengths (two lengths in his two-turn races), and the average distance behind at the three-quarter call was only three lengths (1 1/2 lengths in his two-turn races), so this is a horse who has enough tactical speed to be within striking range and still come home fastest of any 3-year-old with huge Brisnet late pace figures of 110, 106, and 105. The thought of him and Essential Quality hooking up at the head of the stretch surely is something to look forward to.
2. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
Despite Life is Good’s San Felipe romp and 107 Beyer figure, Essential Quality still is the only 3-year-old to run a negative Thoro-Graph number. When he runs next in the Blue Grass Stakes it will be interesting to see if he actually runs faster, pairs up that number, or regresses slightly. We have mentioned about the recent historic impact of the Blue Grass on the Kentucky Derby, and it should not be forgotten that the last Blue Grass winner to capture Derby was Strike the Gold 30 years ago. The fact that Essential Quality already has two Grade 1 victories at Keeneland, it is going to be very tough to beat him there. You can’t even plan strategy against him because he has shown he can beat you from anywhere on the track. He took advantage of a slow pace in the Breeders’ Futurity, battling head and head on the lead; took advantage of a fast pace in the BC Juvenile, coming from nine lengths back; and sat two to three lengths back through a moderate pace in the Southwest Stakes. And he’s won in the slop and has shown sprint speed, rallying to win at six-furlongs in 1:09 4/5 in his career debut. So good luck trying to beat this horse.
3. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit)
I am ranking him ahead of Life is Good based mainly on pedigree and professionalism. Life is Good is freakishly fast but quirky. Remember, owner and breeder Gary West kept this colt and put Life is Good, who he also bred, in the sale. A lot of that was based on whose pedigree looked more geared to a mile and a quarter and who looked more appealing to buyers at the sale. Now it looks like they are on a collision course, like right out of the movies. Winning his two-turn debut is important enough, but outrunning the favorite and likely pacesetter Caddo River, then winning by 4 1/4 lengths geared down with his ears pricked and Rosario looking back three times and still coming home his last sixteenth in :06 2/5 was something no one could have predicted. The best thing to happen to this horse was having that tough race against Freedom Fighter in the seven-furlong San Vicente. So, if he does hook up with Life is Good, he is the one who is battle-tested and has shown he can win from off the pace. When he was at Nelson Jones Training Center in Ocala, trainer Jorge Villagomez started him off slowly like all the others, but when they began to get serious with him they had to keep working him with better horses each time because no one could keep up with him and his riders would come back saying, “Wow, what a horse!” Finally, he just ran out of competition. Now he is undefeated at three different distances at both ends of the country. Yes his Beyer figure was 13 points slower than Life is Good’s, but we’re talking 1 1/16 miles, and back on Febuary 20, Baffert texted, “This is my Real Quiet.” Well, we all know what happened when Real Quiet faced his far more brilliant stablemate Indian Charlie in the Derby.
4. Life is Good (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
Since his runaway victory in the San Felipe he actually has become a polarizing figure on the Derby trail, as odd as that may seem. When his lofty Beyer speed figure of 107 was announced and he then closed in the latest Derby Future Wager at an absurd 2-1, it was assumed he was the new Derby darling, replacing Essential Quality. To demonstrate the wide chasm between the two, $62,000 was bet on Life is Good compared to $27,000 on Essential Quality. Although the 2-year-old champ held on to his No. 1 spot on the National Turf Writers’ poll, the gap was narrowed considerably, 369 points to 360 and 20 first-place votes to 17. Then some of the other speed ratings were released. Life is Good earned a solid 103 on Brisnet, but Weyburn actually ran a point faster in the Gotham. Life is Good then was a given a “zero” Thoro-Graph figure, which was excellent, but not as fast as Essential Quality ran the week before. And of course there was the drifting out from the top of the stretch to past the finish line, which bothered a number of people. So there are some who think he is the second coming and all but has the Derby wrapped up, and others who still have their doubts. Everything should be much clearer after the Santa Anita Derby, as Baffert likes to wait until the final Derby prep to show what his top horses are really capable of stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. That is when he unveils the true product he is sending to Churchill Downs.
5. Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker)
He continued his sharp works, drilling five-eighths in 1:00 3/5. Two weeks ago, I mentioned a potential Derby gods angle regarding Juddmonte Farms and the deaths of its founder Khalid Abdullah this year and one of its greatest stars Arrogate last year. Now we learn of the death at age 20 of one its top broodmares, Kind, dam of the great Frankel and champion and dual Group 1 winner Noble Mission. If Mandaloun can emerge victorious in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, he would join Greatest Honour, Essential Quality, Life is Good, and Concert Tour as the Fab Five of Kentucky Derby contenders. And he might just have the attention of the Derby gods. But getting back to reality, it will be interesting to see if he can separate himself from his two antagonists Proxy and Midnight Bourbon or if they remain glued to him like barnacles on a ship. Who knows, maybe it will be one of them who separates himself from the other two. The record of the Louisiana Derby as a Kentucky Derby prep has been abysmal, in good part to the six-week gap between races and not enough time to squeeze in another race. But with the distance lengthened to 1 3/16 miles this year, that trend could change, as it should give the horses a stronger foundation and not have to stretch out quite as far on the first Saturday in May.
6. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
OK, this is reaching, but when everything to say about a horse you’ve already said you look for any kind of new angle. So, here goes. In his last start he demolished Top Gun Tommy by 11 lengths. In Top Gun Tommy’s previous start he had beaten a horse named Southern Passage by 10 1/2 lengths. This past Thursday, Southern Passage was flying at the end of a one-mile allowance race to finish second, beaten only three lengths by the unbeaten sensation Prevalence at odds of 32-1. What does that mean in the grand scheme of things? Probably nothing, but for fans of Known Agenda you’ll take any kind of building block no matter how small and any handicapping angle no matter how trivial. This colt, after outgaming Greatest Honour last year going 1 1/8 miles, in which the future Withers runner-up Overtook finished 21 lengths back in third, he for some reason went to sleep in his next two races, earning a dismal “11” Thoro-Graph number. A frustrated Pletcher tried blinkers in his next start and that’s when he romped by 11 lengths, looking like a totally different horse and jumping all the way to a “3 1/2” Thoro-Graph number. This colt’s pedigree is crying out for a mile and a quarter and I feel that is where we will see him at his best. The eye test says this is talented colt and we got a glimpse of that talent in his last start.
7. Proxy (Mike Stidham, Tapit – Panty Raid, by Include)
With him, it’s very simple. If the blinkers help keep him focused and prevent him from racing erratically in the stretch, which very well could have cost him the LeComte and Risen Star Stakes, then he is going to be very tough to beat in the Louisiana Derby. His grinding style and the way he surged late in those two stakes to snatch second should make him even more dangerous stretching out to 1 3/16 miles. Watch him coming down the lane. If he’s not shying from the whip or drifting out on his own then expect to see him right there at the finish. This will be his second start under John Velazquez, so Johnny V should be much more familiar with him. Now, we’ll just have to see if he can turn the tables on his two conquerors Midnight Bourbon and Mandaloun, both of whom he has already finished ahead of. He tuned up for the race with a half-mile breeze in :49 3/5
8. Risk Taking (Chad Brown, Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
He worked five furlongs in 1:02 at Belmont as he continues to prepare for the Wood Memorial, where he will attempt to win his third straight mile and an eighth race. Because of the spacing between races he hasn’t gotten a lot of buzz, but he looks to be one of those blue-collar horses that just goes out there and does his job, running hard every step of the way without a lot of fanfare. We’ve been saying all along he is like a throwback to those sound, hard-knocking horses of the past. He still needs to step up in class, but his Thoro-Graph jump from a “10 1/2″ to a “3 1/4″ indicates he has made great strides and will appreciate the time off between races. He’s an easy horse to overlook, but do so at your own peril.
9. Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens, Pioneerof the Nile – Sunday Affair, by A.P. Indy)
All we can do is wait until they make him a late nominee for the Derby and then officially announce he will run in the Wood Memorial. Jerkens, like his father, is conservative in his approach, but when he decides to tackle a classic or Breeders’ Cup race you better take his horse very seriously. And this colt showed in the Gotham he is not one to be taken lightly. No he hasn’t been two turns yet, but with his pedigree that is not going to be a problem. In fact, he should improve the farther he goes. Let’s remember however, that he had to battle back to beat a horse with only one lifetime sprint. But we really have no idea how good Crowded Trade is, and there were some awfully talented horses behind him, including Freedom Fighter, who was coming a narrow defeat to Concert Tour, and Crowded Trade’s more accomplished stablemate Highly Motivated. And Weyburn’s jump from a “9” to a “3” Thoro-Graph number gives him room to move forward in the Wood Memorial.
10. Helium (Mark Casse, Ironicus – Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
I have to admit I am in a quandary as to what to make of this colt and where to rank him. As I mentioned in great detail last week, I loved everything I saw in the Tampa Bay Derby, especially when horses do something they are not supposed to do. And what he did could only have been done by an extraordinary horse. With that said, I have all the faith in the world in Mark Casse’s decision making, as he knows his horse, but to go eight weeks to the Derby, having only one start at 3, and having never run farther than 1 1/16 miles, history is screaming at me not to get too carried away with him and look at him logically. Even ignoring the fact that only two horses have won the Derby with only three career starts in the past century, which is something I can live with in this new era of Thoroughbred racing, I still can’t help but be skeptical when none the other three factors I mentioned have been accomplished since the early 1900s. His Thoro-Graph progression is excellent, going from an “11” to an “8 1/4,” both on synthetic, to a “3” in the Tampa Bay Derby, which is a huge move forward, but ideally you want to go into the big race with a better number than that. So unless there is a change of heart, I will still be a big fan of this horse, but he will have to remain a dilemma.
11. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
His victory over Mandaloun and Proxy in the LeComte Stakes seems like ages ago and he has sort of been forgotten. One of the reasons is that he was able to control the pace in the LeComte when everyone let him cruise uncontested on the lead, which enabled him to hold off his two antagonists. But when he was forced to sit off the pace in the Risen Star Stakes he was unable to find a closing punch and had to settle for a so-so third. We really don’t know how he wants to run and if he can be effective coming from behind. He has never finished out of the money in six career starts and his Brisnet figures have pretty much improved with every start. The Louisiana Derby should identify who this horse really is, and you have to take into consideration that the Tiznows normally get better as they get older. If he is going to be a legitimate Derby contender this is the time to show it.
12. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
This is going to come from left field, but it is time to put some new exciting faces into the Derby picture. As much as I am against horses running in the Derby with only three career starts, there is something about this colt I find extremely intriguing. Both of his starts have been on grass and both left an indelible impression. In his career debut going six furlongs, he battled on the lead with two other horses and put them away on the turn with one quick burst, opening a clear lead, which can often take its toll on grass. But he won off in hand in 1:08 1/5 with the rider looking back twice in the final furlong. Stretching out to a mile in the Pasadena Stakes, he tracked the early pace, and it looked as if he was going to be in for a battle with co-even-money favorite Cathkin Peak. But when Cathkin Peak tried to come inside him he bumped with Rock Your World, causing him to jump back to his left lead and then burst clear with a devastating turn of foot. Why his having only three races doesn’t bother me as much is because in both his races he just kept going at a rapid click after the wire and was still going strong well into the backstretch. He just exudes class, has a regal air about him, and comes back in a strong gallop as if he hadn’t even run. As far as not having run on dirt, his sire Candy Ride was a superstar on grass and dirt, setting a new track record in the Pacific Classic; his maternal great-grandsire Giant’s Causeway nearly knocked off Tiznow in the BC Classic in his dirt debut, and his tail-female family traces to Majestic Light, who won the Man o’ War Stakes, Bernard Baruch, Cinema Handicap and was second in the D.C International, Canadian International, and Turf Classic all on grass and won the Monmouth Invitational, breaking the track record, the Amory Haskell Handicap, Swaps Stakes, and Washington Park Handicap all on dirt. In short, I am banking on this colt being special.
13. Collaborate (Into Mischief – Quiet Temper, by Quiet American)
Here we go again with another horse who will have only three career starts. The reason this colt is different, besides his easy 12-length maiden romp going a mile, is that he is a physical beast with a humongous stride who dwarfs his opponents. Not only did he weigh an outrageous 154 pounds at birth and stand 42 1/2 inches tall, but to show how tough his dam is, she delivered him standing up, which is difficult with a foal that size. He naturally grew up to be a big imposing colt, but he was remarkably athletic and had a smooth easy stride for such a big horse. The first thing Ian Brennan, who broke him, noticed was how fluid his stride was. He may be a physical brute who dwarfs his opponents, but his dam was said to be extremely kind and gentle around people and other horses. Now all this is not going to win him the Kentucky Derby, but it does set him apart from other horses, and watching him bound away from his opponents as if he were in a gallop with those long fluid strides, who knows what we’re dealing with? For a horse his size to go out this weekend and work a half in a bullet :47 flat, fastest of 51 works at the distance, and come home the last quarter in :22 4/5 is pretty remarkable. Like with Rock Your World, I’m just taking a wild shot and looking for horses who are different and might just be special. If it doesn’t work out in their respective Derby preps, then you just move on to someone else. Such is life on the Derby trail. But for now both these horses get the juices flowing.
14. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Oxbow – Indan Miss, by Indian Charlie)
With the Rebel Stakes in the book, here is a chance for the California horses to really assert themselves. They already have had Bob Baffert destroy the Oaklawn horses and his fourth best horse finish second to Essential Quality, and now Hot Rod Charlie can dampen the hopes of what looks to be a strong Fair Grounds home team. Although he ran a gutsy race getting jostled between horses in the furious stretch run of the Robert B. Lewis, the quality of that field is in question after Life is Good demolished Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian in the San Felipe Stakes. But let’s remember his huge effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile getting beat three-quarters of a length by Essential Quality at 94-1. After pairing up a “3 3/4″ Thoro-Graph number in his last two starts there is no reason why he shouldn’t move forward off that, and he is already faster than most of the Fair Grounds horses and less than a point off Mandaloun’s career high “3.” He tuned for his final Derby prep with a sharp five-furlong drill in 1:00 flat.
15. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags – Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
How about yet another new face? In Week 2 I called him my “hidden gem” when he was still a maiden coming off a fourth-place finish, beaten only two lengths despite going six-wide on the first turn and then making a huge five-wide move on the far turn, in which he demonstrated a powerful turn of foot. I then discovered he lost a shoe in the race and returned with mucus in his lungs and obviously loved him even more. In Week 5 when he was still a maiden I called him my “megabomb sleeper,” Well, since then he finally broke his maiden impressively going 1 1/8 miles over a very deep track at Aqueduct. Now he steps into the big-time in the Wood Memorial along with stablemate Overtook. He certainly doesn’t have to win this race, just run well enough to get into the Derby. He has a pedigree to die for and has as strong a female family as you will ever see. All the pieces are in place and he just has to step up. You can bet he is a huge price in the future book.
16. Nicky the Vest (Jonathan Thomas, Runhappy – Tazarine, by Cat Thief)
Here is the third of our horses who aren’t supposed to win the Derby off three lifetime starts but have made it on the rankings anyway. With these horses you have to go by gut feeling and what you see out on the racetrack. Although this colt’s two starts have been against New York-breds I like everything I’ve seen, mainly his powerful running style, his flawless action, his professionalism, and his ability to overcome adversity. He is by a sprint champion who wasn’t bred to be a sprinter, out of a very strong and classy female family and there is no reason to think he won’t appreciate longer distances. In his career debut going a flat mile, he broke sideways from the rail and came out of the gate dead last. In a matter of seconds he was fighting for the lead and just opened up on his field without being asked and coasted home by 3 1/4 lengths. In the one-mile Gander Stakes against Todd Pletcher’s unbeaten Rego Park Stakes winner Perfect Munnings, he broke sharply, stalked the early pacesetter and in the blink of an eye was three in front nearing the quarter pole, then simply outdistanced his opponents, winning off by nearly 12 lengths. What I love most about this horse is his flawless mechanics and his ability to completely ignore the unnecessary use of the whip by his rider in the Gander and keep a perfectly straight path the entire length of the stretch. He is just a pleasure to watch run and now just has to show the same strengths against far better competition. Being a May 11 foal he has a lot of room for improvement.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
PREVALENCE — He got the job done, extending his mini unbeaten streak to two, but he didn’t have quite the “wow” impact he had in his debut, being pushed along late to win by three lengths over a former claimer. It was good to see him rate off the pace, which bodes well for the future, and his second quarter in :22 1/5 was strong, as were his final two eighths in :12 2/5 and :12 3/5. This was a good experience for him, and at this point the Wood Memorial is being mentioned as his next possible target. With Essential Quality and Proxy hot on the Derby trail Godolphin certainly doesn’t need to rush this promising colt and try to stretch him out to a mile and a quarter at this stage of his career. But inexperience no longer is a deterrent on the Derby trail, especially this year, so it looks as if they are going to give him every opportunity to earn his way in.
RUN CLASSIC — If you’re looking for yet another fresh new face to possibly make a big splash at a price in the Louisiana Derby, here is what I wrote in Week 5: “One horse who made a big impression in a maiden race at Fair Grounds Saturday was the Bret Calhoun-trained Runhappy colt Run Classic, who was stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth off a rough trip going six furlongs. Rating nicely in third, he took over at the head of the stretch, changed leads on cue, and drew off impressively. He kept building up momentum with long fluid strides and galloped out very strong, still hugging the rail. His time of 1:44 1/5 was a full second faster than Sainthood ran in the other division, three-fifths of a second faster than a strong allowance race on the same card, and a full second faster than the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. And you had to be impressed with his closing fractions of :24 and :06 1/5, which were significantly faster than the closing times of the other maiden race and allowance race.” Should be interesting.
HIDDEN STASH — There was some concern the way he ran off before the Tampa Bay Derby and was so out of control. But it appears it was in reaction to a female lead pony, so he can be forgiven. His second-place finish after seemingly having the race won was actually a big effort considering the energy he wasted before the race. And the winner did come out and brush him a couple of times. He has the pedigree top and bottom, he’s consistent, he’s improving with very start, and he’s already won at Churchill Downs. He did have a problem changing leads in his first five starts, but did finally change in the Tampa Derby, so one would think he has no place to go but up.
CROWDED TRADE – He actually received a faster Thoro-Graph number in the Gotham than the winner, jumping from a solid “7” in his career debut to a “2 1/2,” so he certainly looks like a colt with a bright future, but still has yet to go two turns. Just another of the many guesses this year.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED – He rounds out the Chad Bown trio of Derby hopefuls. As we said that week, his third-place finish in the Gotham Stakes was much better than it looked considering the trip he had coming off a layoff. The big question with him is how far he wants to go. He also hasn’t been two turns so he will have a lot to prove next time out.
BIG LAKE – After nearly blowing a six-length lead in his previous start he ran a big race to finish third in the Rebel Stakes and probably would have finished second had he not gotten wiped out in the stretch by Caddo River and knocked into Get Her Number. He’s a big good-looking horse who definitely is on the Improve. If you want a horse with a strong Kentucky Derby influence, his sire won the Derby, his grandsire was second in the Derby, his great-grandsire was second in the Derby, and his great great-grandsire won the Derby. That’s just his sire’s line. On his female side, his great-grandsire won the Derby, his great great-grandsire was second in the Derby, and his fourth dam is a full-sister to a Derby winner.
MEDINA SPIRIT and SPIELBERG – Although they are not in the same class as Baffert’s top two Derby hopeful they still are extremely productive and can hold their own with most of the others. It’s just a question of where Baffert runs them. He could even go straight to the Derby with Medina Spirit after three straight two-turn stakes.
CADDO RIVER – What was disappointing other than his performance was the way Geroux fought him down the backstretch, almost standing up on the horse trying to keep him off Concert Tour, when in my opinion he would have been better off engaging him, considering Caddo River had more experience and was more seasoned, and Concert Tour was the horse to beat. You just do not let Bob Baffert horses get an uncontested lead. By the time he finally let the horse go he was empty and couldn’t even keep a straight course in the stretch.
KEEPMEINMIND – With all the setbacks in his racing and training schedule you can forgive a defeat in the Rebel Stakes, but the fact that he came up completely empty in the stretch is a reason for concern. But he does deserve another chance.
ROMBAUER – He is a consistent closer and handles all kinds of surfaces, and has run well in top company. But he needs to get faster and put himself in contention earlier and not leave himself with so much to do. We’ll see if they go back to the dirt or stick with the synthetic track in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
DREAM SHAKE – Let’s not forget he was able to finish third in the San Felipe Stakes coming off only one sprint victory in which he received an amazing “1” Thoro-Graph number. It was no surprise he regressed off that, and now he is in position to take another step forward.
THE GREAT ONE – He has a lot of rebounding to do in the Florida Derby after his dismal effort in the San Felipe coming off Lasix and a huge Thoro-Graph number. All his connections can hope for is that he simply had a bad day and can bounce back at a new track against different competition.
OVERTOOK – As mentioned earlier Todd Pletcher will run him and Dynamic One in the Wood Memorial. Both have the same ownership and if Dynamic One falters he should be running late. He has already established his class with his fast-closing second in the Withers Stakes.
SOUP AND SANDWICH — He turned in a bullet half-mile work in :47 3/5 at Palm Meadows, fastest of 39 works at the distance. He is no doubt gifted, but still green, and if he can get his act together in the Florida Derby who knows what he’s capable of.
As you can tell from this week’s Rankings, the three starts to the Derby trend has taken off, as brilliant horses are making their career debuts later and later for whatever reason and then hope they can make a mad late dash into the big event. At the present time we have at least a dozen talented 3-year-olds who could attempt to get in the Derby off three career starts. We will go over them in detail next week.
Side note: Talk about horses getting a late start, too bad for American Pharoah’s brother TRIPLE TAP the Derby isn’t in September again this year. He is a beautiful mover who gets down low and covers a lot of the ground with great extension to his stride. He definitely is one to watch later on.
Steve, I’m glad that I found out that you were still publishing your Derby list I always enjoy reading it regardless of my different opinion. I’m taking special exception to the fact that you have Greatest Honor rated number 1. This is a horse with 2 89 consecutive Beyers? Not certain what he earned in the Florida Derby but if he got beaten by 7 lengths it had to be in the low 80’s. Almost a complete toss for me. He has to hope for a complete pace meltdown for any chance. I’m shocked that you have Helium in the top 10. For him to have any chance in the Derby it would go against everything we have learned on the Derby trail. As far as I am concerned fresh is for bakeries not for Kentucky Derby winners. He might be another Lammtarra but ……. I’m fairly certain that you has O Besos on your list last week, I don’t see him here this week. You made a good point saying that that missed photo for place may have cost him a chance to run unless he runs again, but that is a live longshot. They ran the final 3/16’s in 18.3 seconds and he really was running at the end. He is going to make some noise somewhere this year
My instant twelve:
1. Essential Quality: an undefeated champion commanding utmost respect
2. Concert Tour: unlimited potential
3. Greatest Honour: a brilliant closer with a dependable (likeable) Trainer
4. Hot Rod Charlie: versatility and grit: an explosive cocktail
5. Medina Spirit: a David among many Goliaths. Always reliable.
6. Dream Shake: late but great
7. Spielberg: Always there. He will get you the day you make a mistake
8. Collaborate: coiled sheer power waiting to be released
9. Perseverance: Should I have a reason to NOT Love this horse …!
10. Midnight Bourbon: bred to greatly improve with time
11. Risk Taking: king of the hill…Top of the heap in Old New York ♫♬♬♬
12. Helium: waiting for “anything” happening in the Derby? Try a super fresh stayer
*9. PREVALENCE
Hey, Nelson! Love your 12 comments. All of the lists have suffered damage since the Rebel Stakes. No doubt a few reputations will take a hit in Saturday’s Florida Derby. I’m hoping Greatest Honour doesn’t disappoint, then a good run by Risk Taking in old New York.
Thanks Eddie…! I see that you hold Risk Taking in high regards. He will deploy a great foundation for the Derby indeed. The son of Medaglia D’Oro is the best card for Chad Brown as Highly Motivated and Crowded Trade seem to be distance-constrained and Founder, Bennyfromthebronx and Stage Rider need a lot of catching up ahead.
After what we saw from Hot Rod Charlie it would be interesting to check how Spielberg does against the rolling Greatest Honour… also curious about Collaborate and his potential…
Our lists got seven (7) commonalities and you have prospects Weyburn, Hidden Stash, Big Lake, Highly Motivated and Nicky the Best contrasting my rookies (Collaborate, Prevalence, Dream Shake) and the more experienced Spielberg and Helium.
More like hope than high regard. LOL
After Saturday’s LA Derby I expect to see some major changes. Hot Rod Charlie should move up, possibly Midnight Bourbon as well. I’m not sure what to make of Mandaloun’s performance. He definitely laid an egg. Does anyone know if any of the “Knocking at the Door” horses did anything of note this past week?
No one of the peripheral horses ran this week but there were some trainings to note at Santa Anita.
Spielberg worked 5F in 59.40 today getting ready for the Florida Derby…
Dream Shake worked a bullet 58.20 and Rombauer went 59.20 for 5F yesterday. The former will likely rematch Medina Spirit in the Santa Anita Derby and the latter is planned to invade New York for the Wood Memorial.
The Great One worked an easy 49 flat for 4 F yesterday as well, two weeks after his blunder in the San Felipe …
At Belmont training track, Highly Motivated and Crowded Trade breezed 4F in 48.01…
Thank you!
Bob’s running Medina Spirit and Defunded in the SA Derby–that is, after they work….I wonder who will be riding Dream Shake, Rosario has Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie, if I’m Eurton I’m looking for a jockey who will stay the course if he qualifies in the SA Derby—Prat maybe, or even Juan Hernandez….
My dozen:
Greatest Honour
Essential Quality
Risk Taking
Concert Tour
Hot Rod Charlie
Weyburn
Midnight Bourbon
Hidden Stash
Big Lake
Highly Motivated
Nicky the Best
Medina Spirit
Lookout for Medina Spirit
The new favorite in the SA Derby!
FWIW, Hot Rod Charlie earned a 99 BSF. Turned out to be a brilliant decision by Rosario to get the early lead. Not a single opponent had ever run close to a 47s half-mile in their Fair Grounds routes.
Brilliant move by O’Neill shipping in for an easy $1million dollar pot away from the rock hard west coast horses.
and Dream Shake.
LA Derby revealed itself an interesting test for the uncommon TIZNOW colt… MIDNIGHT BOURBON. The pace was honest for himself and the winner as they dueled the FG oval thru it’s extended stretch. MIDNIGHT BOURBON seemed to fade a bit nearing the wire but that may have seemed the managed illusion from the colt’s subtle action beginning at the top of the stretch. The post parade also confirmed his physical development is well underway and that should augment the quality of his performance six weeks from now. He qualifies membership among the first group of 3yo colts nearing the wire at Churchill May 1st after today.
Yea, Midnight Bourbon looked fantastic in the post parade. This race began the series of final preps that separate the contenders from the pretenders. Today, the contenders are the top two finishers.
A toast to Cecilia Straub-Rubens!
Hear, hear!
Yesterday’s performances lay a good foundation for the next stage in the watershed from the Cee’s Tizzy/Cee’s Song marriage, hopefully without regard to what happens in the Derby. What were the odds?
They had a small breeding operation, and they found that nick–the Cee’s Tizzy/Cee’s Song nick! And I agree with the poster who said Midnight Bourbon is growing into a tremendous specimen!
You don’t see Nice Dancer in many pedigrees here. I think he went to Japan after a few years at stud in Canada.
Well, just for fun, I went through the past three Louisiana Derby results and the so called ‘pretenders’ ended up performing better than the supposed ‘contenders,’ going by your guide, in the Kentucky Derby of that year.
2020 Enforceable was ahead of NY Traffic, Wells Bayou never entered.
2019 Country House, War of Will were ahead of By My Standard and Spinoff
2018 Bravazo was ahead of both Noble Indy, and Lone Sailor
Seems as though it’s the ‘pretenders’ you should be looking out for in the Kentucky Derby not the contenders. Lol.
Davids, may we resolve to never again use the September 2020 Derby as an historical measure? And it must be noted that the Louisiana Derby last year was more than 5 months prior to the Kentucky Derby.
When we talk about contenders for the Derby, aren’t we making guesses about the eventual WINNER of the Derby? I think most of us are thinking in that context. I suppose the Louisiana Derby isn’t a harbinger of success in that it has NEVER produced a legitimate KD winner (Take THAT, Kentucky stewards!) when it’s been a final prep.
When considering the kind of final-prep performance that wins KDs, the top two yesterday check more boxes than the others. Midnight Bourbon is borderline, I’ll admit. Maybe O Besos is at his level, too. But we all know the recent history of deep closers in the Derby — for the WIN, of course. And when was the last time a Derby winner lost as much ground in the stretch of his final prep as MB did yesterday?
I feel pretty confident that the also-rans of the Louisiana Derby won’t see the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs.
Who knows but in the past three runnings of the Kentucky Derby the ‘evidence,’ not guesswork by punters, shows that horses who were unplaced in the Louisiana Derby performed better in the Kentucky Derby than those who came first or second in the Louisiana Derby.
Every punter can say whatever they think about a horse race and predict the future outcomes, I just thought it was amusing how shockingly bad the Louisiana Derby first and second horses had performed in the Kentucky Derby compared to those who were beaten in the prep.
C’mon. You used two years of Louisiana Derby final preps as your evidence. Would you care to do the research for, let’s say, the last 20 years of the productive derbies of Florida, Santa Anita, and Arkansas?
You seem to have a problem with math, 2020, 2019, 2018 that’s 3 not 2 years of the Louisiana Derby. Research? I hardly call going over 20 years of three Derby prep races research. Good luck with your punting. I just found it amusing that horses who had not performed well in the Louisiana Derby prep had reversed the order in the the big race, the Kentucky Derby. Something to think about…
No problem with simple math, at least. But I score well on reading comprehension.
All good.
I wonder if part of that is the weird timing of the LA derby vs the KD derby.
This doesn’t happen often…….great crop?……going to crap…..contenders going off form, injured…..LIG, senor, keepmeinmind, caddo river, mandaloun, proxy……….all top contenders……horrible…….that is a bloodbath of disappointment
the division has went to crap…….
that was alot of contenders pretty much done…….
I suspect foul play!
2-1 future odds on Life is Good—2-1 TWO months out—Cali Chrome won San Felipe by 8 lengths TOO, and then he won SA Derby by 4 1/2 in 1:47 3/5 eased up—HE was only 5/2 ON DERBY DAY—
Because Life Is Good displayed clearly superior ability to California Chrome. Holds true even should he not ever race again.
The La Derby answers the question concerning the quality of FG horses. HRC in the RB Lewis Stakes was coming off a 3-month layoff and nearly won despite a troubled trip. Plenty of discussion going on right now among connections of horses that were pointed to races other than the SA Derby.
Will 25 points get into the Derby?
Impossible to predict…for me at least. The last four Derbies, not counting last year’s September race, had the last horse in with 40, 29, 30, and 32 points.
Thanks Eddie. I guess it is impossible to tell right now but is possible. I suppose they could run in the final prep at Oaklawn if they wanted to make sure but no guarantee there either. He really looks like 10f to me. Maybe with the added conditioning and if he comes out of it strong he could be a factor at 9f starting his close sooner. He must close though, he hates anything else.
The Lexington Stakes would be a shrewder race, shorter distance.
If you’re talking about O Besos, I can’t imagine the connections choosing to run him 2 weeks later in the Ark Derby or the Lexington Stakes. It will be tough to qualify. There are so many points up for grabs in the next couple of weeks. I mentioned earlier that the first two finishers in both the UAE Derby and the Jeff Ruby should have enough points for the KD. What a revolting development THAT would be.
Three weeks but you are probably right. Will probably just try to get in with the 25 points. Top three Derby horses are:
1. Essential Quality
2. Greatest Honour
3. O Besos
Revolting- isn’t that what Riley said? And you are correct. Something needs to change.
Right…3 weeks. My father always said “What a revolting development…” I never thought it was his creation. Ha!
Don’t forget Nicky the Vest!
Or……..like i thought…….all the FG horses would regress……i posted it before the race……i picked the winner…….they simply ran bad…..it does not mean they were never good……that is a simplistic comment…….
Simple is as simple does.
As I mentioned previously, West Coast horses currently are head and shoulders above anyone…..Cox horses aren’t firing on any cylinders, think both Caddo River and Mandaloun look exhausted. Don’t know why, but both should go on the shelf and figure out a game plan….
The best West Coast colt won’t be in the Derby, Triple Tap will be given all the time to develop.
Hi Davids,
We’re usually on the same page, but not this time. Triple Tap doesn’t impress me- and I loved his 1/2 sib. It will be interesting to see how this goes.
Hi sceptre, I was obviously being a little hyperbolic going on one race but Baffert did say prior that Triple Tap wasn’t really ready just yet. Who knows? Anyway, early I thought so, so, however, the last 100 meters the colt appeared to wake up so I’m on the positive for the next outing.
In Europe, I’m looking forward to the return of St Mark’s Basilica. Everything appeared to becoming together finally. How far he wants to go is the question though. Any you like?
I loved the just turned 3 yr. old filly NOHAND, until yesterday.
Nohand was impressive in the March 2 race. It appeared as though the heavy track was against her.
Hello Steve, I am not giving up on Proxy who finished 4th in the LA Derby. He was squeezed at the break and started in 5th place. Proxy needs to be forward, stalking to be effective. The break IMO really compromised his chances. He has 34 points and hopefully can get in the KY Derby. With a clean break in the KY Derby Proxy can rely on his pedigree and tactical speed to get the job done at 1 1/4.
Why be discouraged? Proxy should have enough points to get into the big dance. It’s a 20 horse field, anything is liable to happen and it does.
why run in the derby? why?
Well, yes. That’s up to the owners. The Kentucky Derby is awash with pageantry, history but is often a horrible race.
you just saved money…….no derby for you…….
It’s a shame he didn’t get there in time for place at least but don’t tell me O Besos isn’t a Derby horse. Maybe he will finally get a blurb from Steve.
I thought Besos ran very well, if he finished 2nd he’d be in good shape…is not a big animal. Second place would have been great for him, he has a future, he made up a lot of ground….
Thanks for your response Matthew. Yeah, I wanted that place so bad. For my bet and for him getting in the Derby. Hoping he still gets in. O Besos can win The Derby if he gets in or at least get a top four finish in The Derby. He got the correct ride this time. He loves closing. If in The Derby I would expect him to drop to last and pick them all off like Street Sense and Mine That Bird did.
Hopefully, O Besos gets into the Derby field, the colt has improved every race and distance will not be a problem. Good luck.
Thank you. Nice to have you on board Davids. Would just love to see him in the Derby. Hope he comes out of it well. I have a feeling the race didn’t take that much out of him. I love his stride. Have loved him since the first time I saw him race. O Besos is the one for me this year and for the rest of his career. My favorite horse since Zenyatta.
Then you are fortunate–to have such a horse to follow…I fell in love with Native Empress in the early ’70’s, she was a low slunged Quarter horse, as my dad said–low in front with the large backside—they eventually called her “The Old Gray Mare”, she was the best gate horse I ever saw–trained by Wayne Lukas, and if you asked him he would say the same thing–always left there running—years later it was Tulsea, by King of the Sea, out of Tulareco, I still remember the breeding, a smallish Thoroughbred–but my favorite all-time race horse was a Quarter Horse named Winning Copy–I called her “Yellow Horse”, because she looked yellow, she was a pale sorrel filly, not large but muscular–by Duplicate Copy, out of Little Emmy, and I would follow her from the receiving barn to the paddock to the track to the gate—when she raced it was an event, for me….good luck on your horse O’Besos, win or lose–I’m sure you will always love him.
They are all special aren’t they? We never know who we are going to totally fall in love with. I wish I could remember all of the names of the ones I loved. I can’t even remember some of the high profile horses i loved. My memory is bad. It is frustrating. At the track I am always at the paddock and try to see them prior to the paddock if I can also. That is great you can remember that specific horse and experience. I watched a lot of quarter horse racing last year. I loved it. First time I really gave it a chance and it was lots of fun. They are amazing. I really wish they could spread them out better at the start. They are usually done if bumped hard or trapped at the start. Or maybe spreading them out wouldn’t even help, I don’t know. Thanks for the great story. I like fellow paddock people.
What does BESS think?
“It ain’t necessarily so.”
That’s what Cher said.
As expected and predicted Hot Rod and/or Proxy would give Mandaloun more than he could handle. Another mid wester bites the dust. Rosy knew he had horse – Doug O back on the Derby trail big time.
Listen to the vet……..i was right AGAIN……LIFE IS GOOD…….OUT OF DERBY……….many many bad signs……107 beyer, and i didnt even like him……”if he even makes it to the derby”…….
this is not luck……evaluating horses is my job.
Congratulations.
Good boy. You did your business.
BOB knows about next up mentality.. Last year a great example of next up…..
I am hearing from a reliable source tat Life is Good is out. No more details yet.
Hind-end injury after he worked today, according another racing site. Baffert confirmed he was out of the Santa Anita Derby.
Yeah I just saw that.
Oh wow, that’s huge! That really opens things up!
Very sad for the LIG team though.
Time to retire another young stud pushed to do too much too soon whose growth and strength was hampered by lasix and whatever else he was given as routine. Really glad they caught it before race time. Hay and oats and grass and a little treat of mints or an apple or carrot or Guinness or whatever and no drugs works best for health and safety. And horsemen totally in tune with their horses. I don’t think there is as many great horsemen today, and operations are often too big. Survival of the fittest philosophy. Thrown to the wolves. I still believe in horse racing, just wish it was safer, and relatively drug free and with full retirement benefits and care for every one of the horses that race.
UGH!!! Wow, I was really looking to this years derby with the 4 heavyweights. Let’s hope it’s not serious, get him ready for met Mile?
You are ignorant……zero proof, zero knowledge……you blame people, ……..blame mother nature……horses are built to die of accident…..nature……get to know it……
billions of birds die flying into objects every year…….you would clip all their wings?
I wouldn’t support that remedy. Warning signs, traffic lights, and better flying instruction may be needed.
Somewhat apt first half of analogy, but poor last part. a) Birds may be unable to avoid buildings, but horses can easily avoid racing, etc. b) It’s worth making adjustments to buildings to aid in accommodating flying bird safety, as it’s well worth taking all measures reasonably possible to better protect the performing racehorse.
Hold your horses, everybody. LIG took one lame step. He may yet turn out to be fine.
Thoroughbred racehorses are treated like royalty at the top level…you think the Mustang herds in Nevada don’t suffer broken legs, don’t die of colic attack…don’t get eaten by coyote packs?…every mammal passes away…even this one.
Very unfortunate … Oh man… I was about to post a comment of not seeing a big horse going to the sidelines yet like in previous trails… Mutasaabeq, Senor Buscador and now Life is Good… hope is not serious.
Dr. Larry Bramlage will give his diagnostic this week.
..
Really?
The fastest horse is Life is Good.
Yes he is “green”.
Yes he is not professional.
Yes he acts immature.
The fact is that he still wins and has run faster than any other horse.
He had distance questions in the Sham.
He did not show tat he had distance questions in the San Felipe.
He has only run three times.
He has a Hall of Fame trainer.
He should improve.
He works like a champion and his record is that of a champion.
Yes, but who do you like in the Derby?
Three starts is a record of a champion? Talk about low standards.
Learn who to listen to…….
Totally agree they’re pushing Prevalence, spikes a temp and he’s better and right into a one turn mile—to help season him for Gr 1 race it’s too much too soon….you know who ISN’T being pushed along? Mandaloun, and his rising Beyers, and the blinkers adaptation, and he’s a beautiful animal, I would be surprised if he didn’t win on Saturday….
Perhaps the reluctance to decide (or announce) the next start for Prevalence indicates that the connections aren’t sure about the colt’s readiness for the Derby.
Prevelance will do the talking during his next work. Brendan Walsh, as mentioned, is reluctant to make a commitment until he sees the energy level of his horse. They don’t appear to be “all in” just yet on the Derby. If Proxy gives an “A” performance in LA today, then the pressure is off on having Prevelance make the Derby. I think Godolphin is anxious to know just what they have however, and he will be tested for class in either the Wood or Arkansas.
Roman Centurian to do battle in the Wood Memorial. Charge!
Smart, they are conceding the Santa Anita Derby to LIG….RC needs the derby points…
Loved his breeze this a.m. Big shot to bounce back. Very competitive field shaping up
The Wood is looking good!
Pity there isn’t more star power than competitiveness, though. Lol.
I dont look for stars going in. I look for stars coming out.
That is the quote of the year …!
I hope Perseverance fulfills your portent.
Big mistaake pointing Prevalence to the Derby. He’s nowhere near ready for that
Where there’s life, there’s hope.
Spielberg has been directed toward the Florida Derby. Action!
Bob wants to see how Spielberg stacks up now with the Florida brigade. Kinda of using Spielberg as a gauge against his other horses…
Anyone know why Leandro Mora appears as Hot Rod Charlie’s trainer in the Louisiana Derby… is Doug O’Neil helping his assistant starting his own business?
Suspended for a lidocaine positive.
Thanks Steve … I suspected a suspension but I could not confirm it elsewhere…
If Leandro wins the La Derby with HRC, he should be the trainer for the big one!
Well great write ups on all these horses as usual. No one does it like you, Steve. I
am still happy to see Greatest Honour in 1st place but would not have been shocked
to see Concert Tour move into that spot. I think you got the list right. The top 4 could
change around but all 4 have demonstrated great talent and in Greatest Honour’s and
Essential Quality’s case’s, different ways to win. Their next races will tell us even more.
I didn’t know that the West’s were keeping Concert Tour and selling Life is Good. That is
interesting for sure. Also, Bob Baffert calling Concert Tour his next Real Quiet says a lot too.
Life is Good has some maturing to do as evidenced by his drifting out. But if anyone can
fix that it is Baffert and Barnes.
There is so much talent in this group this year. I was disappointed that Caddo River did not
do better but his ride could have been better too. Regardless, even with a better ride he was not
beating Concert Tour.
Thank you Paula. Caddo Rver got a terrible ride,
CT might be Baffert’s Real Quiet this year, but he sure won’t be 8-1 if he wins the Ark Derby.
Steve, Your detailed remarks about Collaborate lit a beep in my radar. One can only start loving a horse when we learn more about his life and traits.
I watched many times his maiden win and he was really impressive with Gaffalione looking like a statue.
Big horses are always fascinating, and they are even more captivating if they are light on their feet … that is a superior trait that could catapult Collaborate to the Stakes ranking pretty soon…!
Collaborate is not only another gifted son of the sire of the moment, Into Mischief, but he also descends from Influential Phipps mares. The quality of that tail female bloodline has been super successful over the years…
Collaborate will make the Florida Derby a very entertaining race indeed…!
I’m looking forward to seeing how he does moving up to a grade 1. I hope he runs wells enough to get in the Derby.
He’ll need to finish 2nd to get in the KD gate. I wonder if a last-out maiden winner has ever won the Florida Derby. My guess is…no.
As you said, a second will suffice as did it for (last-out maiden winners) Majesto and Hofburg . The maiden Bodexpress also picked the 40 points in the Florida Derby.
Any other similar cases last century escape me right now …
Yup. Not much Derby success from that trio. But Hofburg’s 7th-place finish wasn’t bad considering the troubled trip.
The three top horses in Steve’s ranking are not only close in their predictable ability to excel at the Derby distance but are also closely related. Essential Quality and Greatest Honour are by Tapit and Concert Tour is a maternal grandson of the champion Stallion. Great Honour and Concert Tour are even closer as Street Cry is their maternal and paternal grandpa respectively.
Tapit has the distinct achievement of having at least one son in every Derby since 2012. He even had three sons participating in the 2016 Derby (Mohaymen, Creator and Lani) but could have been four if Cupid had not gone off form in the Arkansas Derby.
Steve wrote a compendium about the great son of Pulpit that is worth collecting: “The Amazing Tapit: The Whole Story, 11 June, 2017”.
2021 will be the tenth year in a row for Tapit to have progeny in the Derby with Proxy likely joining Essential Quality and Greatest Honour if the blinkers do the trick for the Godolphin’s hopeful in the Louisiana Derby.
This could very well be Tapit’s year given the pre-Derby credentials of his sons.
Luis Saez, Joel Rosario and Jose Ortiz may have to borrow Wonder Woman’s lasso to catch Life is Good at 9 Furlongs, but they will have to just drive and go to the whip the way they know to get him going an extra furlong.
At any rate, Steve’s top five seems to be one of the most solid standings ever with only 44 days to the first Saturday of May.
It is good to see the reliability of Elite Sires producing Elite horses …
“At any rate, Steve’s top five seems to be one of the most solid standings ever with only 44 days to the first Saturday of May.”
Hey, Nelson. I agree about the deepness of this year’s contenders. I don’t recall a better top 5 or 6 just before the final preps in many years. Can’t wait for Saturday’s race to get things rolling!
Good Stuff Nelson!
Wish I could read Steve’s article on Tapit from 2017….Do you have a link?
Also, I agree that the top 4 are the most solid horses this late in the year in quite a while….If they all stay healthy through the year, we might be seeing some incredible races all year long!
Hi Jeff… the site does not allow links to another website for security reasons… but you can just copy and paste my reference on your preferred browser…
Great article, Steve….I can read your articles forever…did you take that incredibly awesome picture with only the one eye?
Nelson, after Life is Good’s last performance, I just hope Saez , Rosario, and Ortiz are keeping their mounts on a straight line. Mike Smith, on the other hand, might be heading to a quick visit to the Churchill Downs grandstand. Arguably, not even Wonder Woman’s lasso will save him. Lol.
That is a good one Davids..! two thumbs up!!!
Ha ha By the way, have you been taken an interest in the UAE Derby this year? The two Flatter colts might be a surprise, let’s hope so.
Looks like Into Mischief and Tapit kids are the New Kids on the block with something to prove and make their daddies proud. Should be a fun Derby.
They certainly are the dominant sires
Thanks for mentioning LIG drifting out significantly in the San Felipe. I mentioned my concerns about it on another site and was pretty much dismissed as not being very important. Since he seems to be fine physically, I can only assume he was either getting tired or was running greenly & distracted? Let’s hope it was just inexperience that can be corrected as he certainly can’t afford to run like that in the KD without it being a complete disaster.
See, you need to come to this site for balanced reportinng and opinons. lol
Hahaha, that’s true!
Personally, I believe LIG drifting is being green. Bob won’t risk an injury to a high profile horse, amd said LIG was green.. Also, LIG gallop out was more drifting but drew even further away from his opponents. Bob will have to figure out equipment or develop LIG’s mental status further prior to the KD. If he does, lookout for a possible triple.
Its definitely being or as I metnioned quirky. Baffert will be the first to tell you that.
Has LIG worked since the San Felipe? What’s the planned workout schedule for LIG?
He hasnt and I expect him to in the next couple of days
Let’s say that the top 5 win their final prep in similarly impressive fashion: GH in the Fla Derby, EQ in the BGS, CT in the Ark Derby, LIG in the SA Derby, and Mandy in the La Derby. What would be the post-time odds in the Kentucky Derby of those 5?
Depends on how impressive they are. Life is Good 3-1, Esential Quality 4-1, Concert Tour 9-2, Greatest Honour 6-1, Manndaloun 9-1. sixth choice 17-1
Can’t argue with the order and the odds, particularly with the gap between the 5th and 6th choices. BUT…if Risk Taking or Weyburn were to win the Wood impressively, it could be narrower.
Definitely would narrow the gap
Steve, if you hear where Todd is pointing Unbridled Honor to can you mention? Gut says FL Derby, but I don’t like that – I think the Wood would have made more sense, so I’ll hope for Blue Grass. Thanks
Hes running Known Agenda in the Florida Derby and Dynamic One and Oveertook in the Wood so those are both out. He hasnt worked since the Tampa Derby so I would expect him to work on Saturday. Maybe the Arkansas Derby?
Hello Steve, good to see Weyburn back on the work tab at Belmont Park 11 days after his upset win in the Gotham. Another good work hopefully will lead his connections to run him in the Wood Memorial. He has a stout pedigree and I like his tactical speed. He has the 50 points already to get in the Derby, he would just need a strong showing going 2 turns to convince his connections to tackle the rigors of the KY Derby at 1 1/4. He is a big strapping colt who just might be perfectly suited for a race like the KY Derby.
His pedigree is noteworthy tracing directly back to Georgia Hoffman’s STICK TO BEAUTY and her Florida operation. However he’s hails from Canada by way of NY… and is an April foal. So he may need more time in the Sun to advance and reach his full potential…
I’ve been waiting for hm to run two turns so hopefully they officially announce the Wood and and Im sure they will make him a late nommination
Before it disappears, check out the Derby page at d-r-f. They’ve posted Derby rankings for 20ELEVEN, with a who’s hot story on Premier Pegasus (remember him? I didn’t), who vaulted to #5 on their list. Early April Fools??? I’ll take Steve’s list anytime.
Absolutely right. I’ve seen the rankings on DRF, Bloodhorse and Horseracing Nation. They are all a joke. Steve’s are not only bang on but also informative. His stuff should just be linked to these other sites as their content is a complete waste of time.
Thank you very much, Jerry. I appreciate that.
You are correct. This is the only list I look at. I wouldn’t dare to even take a peak at any other list. A complete waste of time. Be here or be square. The other sites aren’t even funny how bad they are. Steve has always been the man and will always be the man.
I’m not quite sure what youre saying. What does Premier Pegasus have to do with anything?
PP was on a top Derby list accidentally posted yesterday at drf. (The list was from 20ELEVEN.) I thought it was hilarious that a 10-year old watch list was posted instead of the one for the current year.
On March 17th (today)…. given the chance to own ONE horse from this crop I would take Prevalence, and his low Beyers….I just love his look, his debut race. I still like Greatest Honour, and HIS low Beyers, to win the Derby, but for the long haul give me Prevalence!
You’ve got a fine eye for a good horse, Matthew. Would you sell me a share? lol. Yes, indeed, Prevalence did cause a lot of high eyebrows with his splendid debut (as evidenced by his prohibitive 1-10 odds in his second start). I wasn’t looking for a big speed rating in the allowance against a lackluster field. Rather than speed, that was the perfect spot to teach the horse to rate which he complied with on command. Then, Gaffalione was instructed to ride him out for another 1/8 mile. IMO, Prevalence got good grades for lessons learned on the 11th.
Now, it’s on to the Wood where he’ll be tested for class. His performance will tell us and, more importantly, his connections, whether he’s ready for the Derby or not. What ever the outcome, Prevalence has a bright future. Can’t wait to see him run again.
Happy St Paddy’s Day!
For me it would be Overtook, because owning him would mean that I had $1 million to buy him as a yearling.
😉
Good Day Steve and Happy St. Patrick’s Day !
It appears that Olympiad is ready to start breezing again after “taking the Winter off”. If it’s Bill Mott’s intent, can a horse be ready for a race with only 3 workouts? I’m looking at the Derby prep schedule and if Olympiad was to start working-out again this week, could he be ready for a prep race by 4/3/21 or 4/10/21 ? The information below comes from a Horseracing Nation article posted yesterday :
Barn Tour: See what’s going on in Bill Mott’s stable
By Carolyn Greer
“Olympiad. This son of Speightstown also has the distinction of breaking his maiden with a win over Caddo River and Greatest Honour, this time in a September race at Saratoga. He also took time off over the winter, Mott said. “He’s back. He’s getting ready to do some open gallops, ready to breeze.”
Thanks for your thoughts!
Hey JC,
I think you and I are the only two left who are still following Olympiad and hoping for a miracle! I think Mott is rather conservative, so I can’t see him pushing this horse, but we can still hold out hope, right!
Hey Bruce,
Hope yes! I certainly know NOTHING about how to train a racehorse, however from what little I have read, typically a horse is out on the track jogging and running around a bit prior to “working”. So I can’t wait to see his first work posted since 1/19/21. Will be interesting to see how the “rest” has treated him, size and weight gain ? Strength ? It’s just nice to hear he is fine.
Just reading about how race horses are typically trained. Once “open gallops” or Tow Minute Licks begin (1 Mile in 2 Minutes), then the horses breeze the following week or so. Breezing is the fastest and final part of the conditioning process. But how many breezes does it typically take to be race ready ? Just trying to pin point where Olympiad’s current condition is ? Based on training techniques, he has probably been jogging and galloping this winter to get to the point where he’s conditioned enough to open gallop and breeze ?
Steve would love your comments.
I assume youre not thinking of hm as a Derby horse. He has zero shot of making that. I would look for him in a sprint in at least a month from now. He is by Speightstown so for now I imagne Mott will keep him short
Thank you Steve.
Racing is always uncertain, luck always seems to play quite a part in winning a race. At this stage, the top three colts on Steve’s Derby Rankings appear the less likely to depend on luck to win the Kentucky Derby. That’s before the post draw, anyway. It seems unlikely they will be beaten in their last preps but you never know. Who is best of the top three, toss a coin.
Much of the fun is speculating on which colts may have a good chance of dethroning the top three. If the Derby was in September that colt would definitely be Triple Tap but that’s just dreaming. For me, Proxy, Hidden Stash, Weyburn, and Dream Shake are the outsiders with the most potential of upsetting the big three. Helium would have been on the list but waiting that far for the Derby is too big a gamble. May be not, Mark Casse winning would be very popular.
Steve, your closer to the racing gods than most, which way are they blowing the magic dust? I sense it’s Greatest Honour, the family of Best In Show has a remarkable influence the world over. Thanks again, for a great read.
A Best in Show tail-line filly, Above Suspicion, will be trained by Richard Mandella. Very promising on paper and at the walk, bought young by Spendthrift/MyRacehorse. Hope she’s precocious enough to debut this year.
Did you buy in? Spendthrift need stamina to go with their speed sires. Lord Nelson, could be an exciting sire in the future going by what you’ve seen thus far.
Short answer is no. My priority commitment will continue to bar me from doing the research I would want to do beforehand for at least another couple of months.
Livewire clued me in to Above Suspicion just a couple of days ago, having learned about the reasons why she was bought at KEESEP 2020, at the most recent sale. Honor Code is consistently throwing big and long, but they wanted her, as against type, thinking she may be a more precocious type, having both speed and stamina. Livewire sees strong resemblance to Weekend Surprise, behind the withers; She’s plainly got the Honor Code front end.
Lord Nelson’s look promising. I’ve been thinking Spendthrift plans to stand Tizamagician when he’s done racing, and he’s got both speed and stamina, but looks to need to go to 12f, if he’s to have a chance of beating those who beat him to the wire in the big ‘cap.
Well, Above Suspicion’s pedigree alone covers whether she is successful or not on the track. Storm Cat influence with the precocity. Honor Code may be a bit like Sky Masa initially. Patchy at the start but with some good runners then took off.
Lane’s End recently posted a video on YouTube of Bill Farish talking about Honor Code’s stud career for 4 minutes, making the point that they’re used to the pattern. See also: Curlin. Also shows, beautifully, how they’re dealing with the market.
Thanks, yes, I’ve seen the videos.
Despite our frequent association, Betsy, who has referred to me as preternaturally positive, is much more saturnine about Honor Code’s stud career, than I. I imagine you and I are more similarly sanguine and view the videos accordingly.
I thought Above Suspicion’s pedigree would strike you well, but we’ll have to wait and see if she proves a runner as to Honor Code as AP Indy, or as Swale, were to Slew — or as War Admiral was to Man o War.
If you go through quite a few hypothetical matings with Honor Code, using the prominent lines, nothing really clicks no AA+++ etc. That’s why Honor Code may take sometime to really establish. He throws type, stamps his progeny so once the the nicks/best crosses formulate all will fit into place.
Yes, Betsy has only has eyes for Honor Code but I can understand that. One of the most charismatic sires ever. Unbridled’s Song was another.
Steve, in case you don’t scroll down again, please see my last comment regarding Sea Hero.
I was just kidding with you. If I said who are you going to believe, I’m serious. When I say who you gonna believe, that’s kidding.
LOL!
Correction: Is it safe to say…..
If….Life is Good didn’t exist Medina Spirit would be undefeated, and Dream Shake running 2nd to Medina would look pretty solid….
Steve
Is it safe to safe that Drain the Clock is off the Derby trail? He hasn’t had a recorded work since finishing 2nd in the FOY.
Currently, he’s not listed as a probable/possible in the Florida Derby. It appears he’s a sprinter/miler type.
He always has been a sprinter/miler type. The FOY was juat a shot in the dark.
Brisnet:
Concert Tour 3/13, OP, 95
Prevalence 3/11, GP, 88
Which favorite is the most likely to disappoint with a dull effort in the final prep?
Louisiana Derby: Mandaloun
Florida Derby: Greatest Honour
Santa Anita Derby: Life Is Good
Blue Grass Stakes: Essential Quality
Arkansas Derby: Concert Tour
I’m not even sure which horse will be the favorite in the Wood Memorial: Risk Taking? Prevalence? Weyburn?
I’d go Mandaloun of the races listed. Robert B. will have his horses primed and fed well to perform.
I think Steve may be on to something with Dynamic One in the Wood, so maybe all 3 of those listed, but would be the favorite? I can see these 4 horses in the 7-2/5-1 range.
Or perhaps they’ll all run well. 🙂 My guess for favoritism in the Wood is Chad Brown’s Risk Taking.
For sure. I bet they all do run well, but of the 5 listed, I think Mandaloun would be most likely to disappoint, but what does disappoint mean? Finishing 3rd, or totally out of the money? I would agree and say Risk Taking is 7-2, Prevalence because of the hype will be 3-1 or 7-2, Weyburn probably 5-1 and Dynamic One around there as well
Disappointing? How about off the board, or a loss of 5 or more lengths, or lost position in the stretch? Those are all fatal or nearly fatal flaws in a final Derby prep. I have more, but I’d have to charge you. 😉
I’m old enough to remember Sea Hero.
Sea Hero had none of the flaws I described. He was fourth (i.e., on the board) in the Blue Grass, lost by 2 3/4 lengths, and maintained fourth place from the stretch call to the finish. Or were you just reminiscing? 🙂 🙂
Sea Hero had a terrible trip in the Blue Grass. What was important was his impressive victory in the Champagne Stakes.
The DRF just said “Even effort” in the Blue Grass line in the PPs; no mention of the trouble he had! And still he was bet down to 12-1 after 3 straight losses leading up to the Derby.
Who you gonna beieve? He was trapped in the stretch and couldnt get through.
Steve, I wasn’t denying what you said. I was confirming it and commenting on Sea Hero’s odds despite the inaccurate DRF comment line.
The ’93 KD was 28 years ago, but this is what I can remember about the race. It was the first Derby that I cashed in. At Hollywood Park, Sea Hero opened at 30-1 and paid off at 16-1. I bet $50 to win on Sea Hero and it returned about $850. Made the bet early and went home to watch the race on TV.
I can only guess that California (West Coast) had a separate betting pool from the 12-1 pool (East Coast).
In the DRF, Peb, the cartoonist, had drawn up 5-6 caricatures of racetrack notables, which appeared in the Derby section of the Form. Each cartoon was accompanied by a brief interview, including the interviewee’s Derby selection. Only one got it right. That would be Woody Stephens. Don’t know how much effect Stephens’ endorsement had on the odds, if any.
I chose Sea Hero because I thought it was a weak field and wide open for a longshot. I happened to zero in on a Belmont race at one mile on the grass, which Sea Hero won in the time of 1:35:00 as a two-year-old in September or October 1992. Thought it was a quick time even though Sea Hero was just a juvenile and I did not think he had real strong grass pedigree.
Sea Hero got a dream run at the head of the stretch, with Jerry Bailey describing it as “a hole opened up like the parting of the Red Sea.”
And his female tail line family… And who his Breeder was… And his Owner’s business and also his related deep history of business contacts and interests… And most of all who he was NAMED after…
Who that individual also arrived with his entourage at Churchill Downs mid-card the day of the race.
Bailey and Miller had also ran SEA HERO quietly with blinkers up to and thru the Bluegrass… And then for the big dance the mask came off…
He also finished racing standing at Lane’s End as in all in the family in a way… That’s Texas Oil… Upper East Coast Banking and Industry… Politics and world power connections…
That’s a lot on the Link Chart to consider along with the race result and price of his ticket…
Y’all may still believe in those old school Detective Kujan intelligence techniques? “It all makes sense when you stand back and look at it from the right distance now doesn’t it?” Or it doesn’t.
Bingo! My brother always said to look for horses that did something at two–not necessarily dominate–just be competitive, and sea Hero in the Champagne, I remember he got around 106 for a Beyer #….He paid 12-1 but I had him in the Oregon only pool—31-1 thank you very much, and the $1 exacta—Sea Hero to Prairie Bayou—for ONE buck–paid $1034 at “Cheers”, the club I bet him at in Salem, Oregon!
Funny thing is…in 1989 the Derby betting pool was co-mingled with the Multnomah Kennel Club, a greyhound track in East Portland, OR….and the $102 trifecta payout WAS the same as in Kentucky, so…1989 you got the same payout and in 1993 it was Oregon only…..
Don’t need charged, simply asked a question.
Wow! You sure did misinterpret my reply. Even the winking emoji didn’t help.
Errr
Concert Tour might get pace pressure next time, he had the easiest last race….
I think Life is Good might get some early company in the next race…SA Derby…..Essential Quality and Mandaloun look like next prep winners, and Greatest Honour might get more pace to run after, they all three look solid, and LIG even though he has dominated…..might not have it so easy….
Which horses might pressure CT and LIG?
No idea…but they had NO pressure in their last races, so…I’m saying they might just not get a dream trip next time. The other horses you listed won on the square—you asked who is the most likely to not do as well next out and all I could think of was maybe–Bob’s colts won’t get lonely leads….
I get ya! My pick for most likely to disappoint is Greatest Honour in the Florida Derby. Closers — even a mid-packer like GH — are almost always at a disadvantage. However, the most likely circumstance is that all of the faves run well.
THIS is the time…early Spring….where horses can really develop, and you just never know….Irap in the Bluegrass, where did THAT come from, but it turned out Irap was pretty good….Thunder Gulch paid $50 for his Kentucky Derby 4 length upset…UPSET? The horse dominated from there on out…..
IMO it would be Mandaloun then Essential Quality.
Not a chance that mandaloun has the speed of LIG; Bob won’t have both LIG and CH be on the lead in the KD. My guess will be LIG in front by a couple lengths on CH who will be stalking
Mandaloun and Concert Tour will disappoint. Greatest Honour and Essential Quality, either not winning would be a huge upset. Big upsets coming for sure in LA Derby and Ark Derby. Biggest chance of being a major superstar is Essential Quality. Can’t wait to see him again. Caddo River in the Ark Derby is interesting, has a shot. Longshot pick in LA Derby is of course O Besos.
Prevalence was galloping along in the warmup and very briefly was given his head and took off like like a shot. His quick acceleration was impressive. I got worried that he might be headstrong in the race but he was very tractable and relaxed. His Beyer of 86 was not a “wow” number, but the #1 ranked horse has run a Beyer of 89 in his past 2 starts. I am very concerned about the leap to a G1 to get Derby points, and then the Derby in the next 7 weeks. That used to be no problem but now every horse needs to be fresh. It’s the new normal after it was considered a negative when Barbaro did it in 2006.
Maybe a mid-April stakes with an eye on the Preakness would be better for him.
I really like him. He requires very little equipment and he runs straight down the stretch. So much potential.
I like him too….love his looks, the small beautiful head with the big nostrils!
I didn’t see the warmup that you describe as I tuned in just in time to see them break from the gate. I wasn’t expecting another big “wow” performance as I thought that Brendan Walsh would use this race to teach Prevalence some new tricks, notably, trying to get him to rate for Tyler. That test, I’m pleased to say, he passed with no problem. Prevalence appears to be a smart horse who responds to his rider’s commands and that counts for a lot with me. I’ve never been too impressed with speed figures so the 86 Beyer and 88 Brisnet numbers don’t concern me. This horse was not asked for speed and got the job done handily.
However, I was a bit concerned when they took the saddle off in the winners circle and Prevalence appeared to be sweating significantly. I’m not sure how humid it was that day, but then I exhaled a bit when I learned that Gaffalione rode him out past the wire for another 1/8 mile.
Can’t wait for the Wood Memorial. Prevalence will tell us by his performance whether or not he belongs in the Derby.
Another superb piece of writing Steve, only question about Greatest Honor is his low AB figures, just a side note did you see how game Galerio ran at Laurel this Saturday, not sure why my jock went left handed instead of rite, take a look at Galerio last 18 races, what a thing of beauty!!!!
Thanks, Dan. I’ll go with Thoro-Graph and Brisnet figures. Beyers are a tool but not one I use. Galerio always runs big but has to figure out how to win one of these stakes. Still a horse to be proud of. He always tries.
Steve, you’ve gained my attention with Dynamic One. Just seeing names like Easy Goer and Personal Ensign in the pedigree makes this colt one to root for. I look forward to this horse’s acid test in the Wood Memorial.
I had previouly gone over that entire female family and all the connctions to Phipps. It’s pretty amazing.
When did Phipps start partnering with some of their horses? It was this guy who GH and Shug ran by when wearing the black and cherry. Also noticed a turf horse at the Gulfstream meet that Peter Brandt is partner with Chad Brown training. Did Phipps sell majority of these horses? Weird to see their horses trained by others and not ole Claude himself. Wonder how he feels about it?
Over the past nine years, winners of the Florida Derby, and/or the Santa Anita Derby have dominated the Kentucky Derby.
Florida Derby: 2013 (Orb), 2016 (Nyquist), 2017 (Always Dreaming), 2019 (Maximum Security, DQ).
Santa Anita Derby: 2012 (I’ll Have Another), 2014 (California Chrome), 2018 (Justify), 2020 (Authentic).
Arkansas Derby: 2015 (American Pharoah).
Could this be the year the winner of the Louisiana Derby, or one of the top finishers, goes on to win the KD? Based on recent history, the answer to that question, would be a resounding no. However, if there’s a colt that could break that trend of SA and Fla. Derby winners, going on to win the KD, it could very well be Mandaloun, IMO.
Mandaloun is a good horse. just curious what it is you like aabout him.
Hi Steve
I like Mandaloun for the following reasons:
1) By hot sire, Into Mischief, out of an Empire Maker mare, (Brooch, a graded route winner in Ireland). The stamina influence is obviously there, starting with Empire Maker’s broodmare sire line, along with Mandaloun’s tail-female side (Juddmonte mares)
2) He’s in the capable hands of hot trainer Brad Cox, and his top rider, Florent Geroux.
3) 3 wins in 4 career starts, the latest being the G2, 9F, Risen Star Stakes, winning by 1 1/4L, under a hand ride in the late going.
4) A very high Dosage Index number of 11.00, an indicator of speed, to compliment his strong stamina influence.
5) He “could” be a carrier of the X-Factor large-heart gene, tracking back through Brooch, Empire Maker, Toussaud, El Gran Senor,
S– Appeal, Buckpasser, Busanda and her sire War Admiral (one of the original carriers of the gene).
6) And finally, I’ve just had a gut feeling about this colt, starting with his maiden win back in October, and his 2nd start, going 7
furlongs in 1:23 flat, at CD, in November.
If you feel he can beat the Top 4 then stick with it. You’ll get a decent price even if he win the La. Derby.
Thanks for the reply Steve.
With respect to your top contender, Greatest Honour, my main concern is, he lacks good gate speed, and could find himself far back in the early going. In the KD 20 horse field, he could very well encounter traffic problems throughout the race.
Essential Quality’s trainer, Brad Cox, appears to be ducking the Arkansas Derby, opting for the Blue Grass, and thus avoiding a confrontation with Concert Tour.
I believe Mandaloun’s main competition will come from Concert Tour and/or Life is Good in the Kentucky Derby. Just my opinion.
How can he be ducking Concert Tour when he said he was running in the Blue Grass before Concert Tour won the Rebel. And EQ has already won two grade 1s at Keeneland. And Cox had always planned on running Caddo River in the Arkansas Derby
Thanks for clarifying Brad Cox’s plan on Essential Quality next start.
For the life of me I cannot figure out what Geroux was thinking on Caddo River, he literally gave the horse no chance to win the race. It was just a weird ride and I would have loved to see him engage Concert Tour on that backstretch and see what happened. There seemed to be a lot of horse there until Geroux geared him down into oblivion.
That’s exactly what I thought. As Steve wrote above, you don’t allow Baffert horses to get an uncontested lead. Same jockey did some odd things in Justify’s Belmont which mystified me.
Watching the race I said my wife, and I quote, “What the heck is he doing?”
Exactly Steve, it was just a matter by how far. Brad Cox must have been ‘underwhelmed’ to say the least. Concert Tour is a very nice colt. You’re spot on with the top three.
Well at least Brad Cox can now figure out where to run Caddo River. He always looked like a Grade 3 miler to me. Maybe Geroux knew Concert Tour would have buried Caddo if he went head to head.
Caddo River appears to have only one way to go, by stifling the colts natural instinct/style Geroux took away any chance Caddo River had of at least placing.
Concert Tour is a very classy individual but still green, with Caddo River imposing himself early he ‘may’ have intimidated Concert Tour. Letting Concert Tour run free Geroux just gave Concert Tour the race.
You assume that the result for rider and horse would have been better had Caddo River engaged Concert Tour in the early stages. We cannot know that. In the run from the gate to the turn, CR and Geroux tried to get the lead and failed. In my view, the race for CR was over as soon as it was clear he wasn’t as fast as CT. The choice was to possibly burn the horse out early or see if he could stalk and win.
Fair and I thought about that, but what benefit was there to basically stand on him, as Steve says in his article? I get that he couldn’t get the lead and felt he had to settle the horse down, but he took any momentum out completely. You don’t stalk that way and when a horse is geared up like that a stalk strategy isn’t going to work IMHO. am not assuming the race would have been different but I think Caddo would have had a better chance with virtually any other strategy.
I get what you’re saying, but sometimes the best answer is what’s in plain sight and knowable. That is, CR was beaten by a faster and better horse.
Consider this: On March 27, four horses from the UAE Derby and the Jeff Ruby Slabs of Beef will most likely qualify for entry in the Kentucky Derby. They would constitute 20% of the field.
Panadol and Mouheeb might be interesting should either win or come second in the UAE Derby.
Given Baffert has two potential stars plus GH and EQ it will be a major upset if anyone other than these four wins the Derby. My vote for an upset is Known Agenda after a great turn time in his last romp. The fact he is ridden by the hottest jockey in the country doesn’t hurt.I’m speculating that Irad was so incensed by Paco messing with his Derby horse in KA’s last race that he went after him complete with video evidence.
Lot of people now getting on his bandwagon I see
Thoughts on Hozier?
Next week. I simply forgot to mention him brcause I dont think Baffert regards him as a Derby horse. He was just hoping to pick up a piece of it. But he deserves a brief mention.
Thanks for the new and fresh rankings. I’m sure I speak for many by recognizing the hard work you put into this endeavor, week after week. There’s nothing else in the racing media as insightful and intelligent as your Derby Rankings.
I thought for sure you would return to the Dozen this week. As solid as this crop of 3yos seems to be, what are the chances that the Derby winner will be one of those below #12? Maybe less than a 5% chance? At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised by a win from any of your top 9, with the exception of Known Agenda. Of your KOTD horses, Hidden Stash and Big Lake are the most intriguing to me. And it was nice to see Nicky the Vest getting in at #16.
As for the late developers that will have just 3 races before the Derby, all I can say is that horses with 4 career races are even less successful in regard to winning the Derby. 🙂
Now we get to the serious races . . .
Thanks Eddie. I will go back to the Dozen soon. I just extended it to put more focus on those new faces I find intriguing.
I believe your top 4 are in the right order but I would rank Essential Quality 4th.
Concert Tour sure wowed me on Saturday. This Derby trail is getting interesting. I thought Medina Spirit rana good race, I would have ranked him 5th or 6th. Baffert may not believe Medina Spirit or Spielberg are in the same class as Life is Good or Concert Tour but they both finished 2nd in their respective races. Only other horse I feel is capable at this juncture is Weyburn. I am trying to focus on the Derby exotics this year so I will most likely box 4 or 5 horses.
My list
1. Greatest Honour
2. Concert Tour
3. Life is Good (he is my top choice for betting purposes)
4. Essential Quality
longshots
Spielberg
Medina Spirit
Nevertheless excellent assessments on all of these horses Steve. You always do your usual incredible and make it look easy.
Best we get used to it, the new training system is racing a horse 3 or 4 times before the big dance. It is all about breeding these days & winning a Triple Crown race means a lot.
Thank you Deacon. What dont you like about Essential Quality? Youre not going to get much back boxing those four.
Just my opinion, but to be honest i am not a fan of EQ at all…2 year old juvenile winners have poor win percentage in the KD, EQ hasn’t beaten much, EQ leg action isn’t the soundest; people believe his racing style is an advantage but in this KD if the top 3 show up he will be up against it ( have enough speed to stay within shouting distance of LIG and CH, and then hold off GH-I dont see that happening.) Possibly in another year, but not this year….
Plus i think EQ has peaked…Can you imagine if LIG continues progression? or GH? EQ kinda of reminds me of Game Winner, solid but not spectacular….
Hey Steve, I hope all is well. I like Essential Quality in the 4th position, just not as well as my top three. Yes he was impressive in the Southwest Stakes @ Oaklawn but what did he beat. Spielberg was 2nd and he is ranked 4th best in Bafferts barn. The time was pedestrian as well. He was much the best I do understand that but why skip the Rebel & the Arkansas Derby. I think the connections are looking for an easier spot for him as to not wear him out. Maybe the Blue Grass Stakes will be an easier spot then the Arkansas Derby.
Just my eye tells me that he is not a Derby winner. Who knows, I could wrong. I do very well usually in picking horses in the money in the Ky Derby. I hit 2 trifectas in recent years but usually the favorites have done well and unless your name is American Pharoah or California Chrome I probably didn’t bet you. I missed out on Always Dreaming (he was your choice I believe) & Super Saver.
Again thanks for all the hard work you put into this, I sure as heck appreciate it.
Great analysis Steve! Thanks I really look forward for this each week…
Love GH but I’m concerned he will be too far back to win the KD… I think he will be more than 10 lengths behind and to catch both CH and LIG might be to tall of a task to beat two high high high level horses…
Thanks. Jeff. I gave his stats how far back he is in his races. forget his last race. How far back you are at 1 1/16 miles has little bearing on how far he’ll be at 1 1/4 miles .10 lengths back after a half in the Derby is OK. Its where he is at the 3/8 pole and he has the ability to keep moving closer during the race. He will be in contention at the 1/4 pole
I am so sad. I had big hopes for Keepmeinmind I just don’t know, who to root for…once I get my heart set on a horse, it is hard for me to change to another…
Eva is still undecided, but leaning towards Mark Casse’s horse Helium. I told her this isn’t the typical route to Derby, by no more Prep races , just training and then running him in Derby as his next race…
you’ll find someone. Give it another wek or two. lets see how Keepmeinmind came out of the race. Maybe he bled or had mucus or whatever
I’m with Sherry. I like a closer. I’m watching to see how Rombauer, Greatest Honour and Keepmeinmind do going into mid-to- Late-March and early-April. Also I am intrigued by Crowded Trade and Collaborate, as well as Rock My World. Lots more to think about than just one.
i think KNOWN Agenda has an opportunity that folks haven’t seen yet because they are only looking at winners only.
Steve an absolutely excellent summary of where we are at as the big preps approach. Glad to see Proxy and Hot Rod Charlie well ranked as I expect they will give Mandaloun more than he can handle. I also remain a fan of Known Agenda who is otherwise under the radar by not being in the recent stakes parade. Todd’s horses have fared increasingly well in route races when I used to think of him as a win early trainer of precocious 2 yr olds. Agree that Prevalence’s initial effort was sensational but the last only workmanlike. He needs more seasoning and will be better later something like the Haskell. Keep up the good work and given how you are by far the best at making the road to the Derby more interesting I’m surprised that Churchill Downs doesn’t sponsor your work.
Thank you very much, Jerry. I really appreciate it.
Dream Shake staying for the SA Derby, maybe they can use a rabbit for Life is Good?….Dream Shake and Prevalence two that could run big in race #3?…..they both regressed which I expected, and now comes the ice test—both will be a good price….
I thought I heard Rombauer going in SA Derby…as is Dream Shake…as is Roman Centurian…
I’m on the Big Lake bandwagon! His looks at a really quick glance reminds me of Secretariat.
Blake
A word of caution on Big Lake. In his 2nd maiden race, he ran without Lasix added, bled and finished a well beaten 7th. In his two subsequent races, he ran with Lasix, and won both. In the Rebel Stakes, where Lasix is not allowed, he finish 3rd, with no signs of bleeding, (at least it hasn’t been announced, if he did). Bottom line, if he bled once without Lasix, he could bleed again.
Big Lake. B Lake. Blake. 🙂
That’s what I’m saying!
Thanks for another great week of analysis, Steve. I was disappointed that Keep seemed so out of steam just when he needed to kick it onto high gear, but perhaps he needs a race to find his running legs. We’ll see when next he races if he can find them. I thought Caddo would do so much better, his finishing out of the money was a bit of a shocker. I don’t see the place or show finishers staying with a horse like Your in a longer race. For the LAderby Saturday I’m liking Proxy and Mandaloun the two top finishers from the prep before to finish 1-2 or 2-1. That’ll be a low paying ExBx if it hits. Have a great week, all!
Tour not your.
I appreciate it, Sally. Thank you very much.
I don’t see anyone beating GH…………
Get some glasses
Thanks again, Steve, for your assessments. It is hard to argue with the Top 5 . I will be curious to see how the Usual Suspects fare in the Louisiana Derby. Helium’s chances following an eight week layoff? Next to nil unless he is Damascus reincarnate, though I suspect even he never had eight weeks off between races.
Eight weeks? It was rare if he got more than two weeks.
Hi Steve.
Thanks so much for sharing all of your insights re: the Derby — I would be lost at this time of year without your weekly updates. I would like to check in on two horses: (1) Is Brooklyn Strong officially off the trail? (2) Do you have any thoughts or news on Defeater? I had him on my list a while back but haven’t heard much lately…
THANKS AGAIN!!
Thank you, Steve. I appreciate it. I have been mentioning Brooklyn Strong’s works every week, but deecided not to this week. They are planning on running him in the Wood Memorial. I held off writing about him because it’s so absurd to me to run a horse in the Derby who didnt make his first 3yo start until April. And the trainer who is doing it is not exactly Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher. I know nothing about him. He is a very good horse, but if he wins the Wood it will say a lot about the other horses in the race.
Defeater, who I was very high on, hasnt worked in over a month so he’s obviously off the Derby trail
He was injured and taken off the derby trail a few weeks ago. A bruised knee after his unlucky second to Big Lake. That was a published story on February 24th from Tom Amoss. “The trainer told HRN in a text message Wednesday: “He’s had a minor setback which, thank goodness, will not require surgery. We’re going to give him time to let him grow up and mature physically. He’ll be back this summer.”
Amoss said there were no chips or other damage that would require surgery.” from the story published on HRN.
Essential Quality and Greatest Honour were both sired by Tapit, who has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. Will one of these two colts give Tapit his first Derby winner? Maybe, maybe not. From what we saw from Concert Tour, in the Rebel Stakes, I would rank him above EQ and GH. My top Derby horse is Mandaloun, who checks a lot of boxes, going into the Louisiana Derby.
Bill Dawson: when looking at Greatest Honour it!s his female family that is most impressive. His dam’s sire is Street Cry from whom he gets that great closing kick. And Street Cry has had a son and grandson win the Kentucky Derby.
His dam, Tiffany’s Honour is out of a blue hen named Better Than Honor. BTH produced two Belmont winners: Rags To Riches and Jazil.
He will be in the Florida Derby on the 27th; we shall see how he does.
Terri Zeitz
All good points relating to GH’s pedigree. However, one thing to keep in mind is his running style. I’m sure that you would agree Greatest Honour is a deep closer, which could work against him in the Kentucky Derby. Closing on fields consisting of 8 to 9 horses is one thing, closing in a field of 20 horses is quite another. Speed horses on, or near the lead have faired better in recent years, as opposed to deep closers that have to endure traffic problems that usually occur in the Derby. There are exceptions to that recent trend; 2013 (Orb closed from 17th at the 3/4 pole), 2011 (Animal Kingdom closed from 10th at the 3/4 pole) and in 2009 (Mine That Bird closed from 19th at the 3/4 pole). It takes a top notch jockey, like John Velazquez (Animal Kingdom) and/or Joel Rosario (Orb) to guide a “deep closer” to victory in the Kentucky Derby, IMO.
Bill, Greatest Honour is not a ‘deep closer’ as Steve has indicated above. Rewatch all his races.
Hey Davids
Prior to Greatest Honour’s win in the FOY, in five races, that consisted of 8 to 9 horse fields, he was 7th at first call. This tells me he lacks good gate speed, and has to use tactical speed to get into contention, during the back stretch run.
In the FOY, once again he lacked speed leaving the gate, and was well back, at 9th, over the first 1/4 mile. The FOY field consisted of 10 runners, and it was only thru the efforts of top rider, Jose Ortiz, that Greatest Honour was able to come from far back (8th at the 3/4 pole) to gain the victory. I would classify Greatest Honour’s win in the FOY as a “deep close”.
In the Kentucky Derby, if he doesn’t break well, and finds himself at the rear of this 20 horse field, will Ortiz be capable of replicating prior closing efforts to put him in a position to gain the win? I believe he’ll be up against it, in a 20 horse field.
“He was a little farther back that I thought he would be going down the backside,” McGaughey said. “A lot of dirt was hitting him. They weren’t going overly fast. Going three-quarters in 1:11 and change over this track is not fast. When Jose got him in the clear it was over.”
That’s a quote from the Fountain of Youth Stakes, in the Florida Derby, with extra distance, I think you’ll find Greatest Honour in a better position and closer to the lead. We’ll see.
Davids
With question, Greatest Honour is the horse to be in the Florida Derby. However, the horse that intrigues me, is Collaborate, (by Into Mischief), who wired that maiden field, going a mile in 1:36 and change, drawing off by 12 1//2 lengths. Will Greatest Honour be able to catch Collaborate in the late going? We’ll see on March 27th.
I like what Steve Haskin had to say about this colt, and placed him at #13, coming off a maiden win, which says a lot about his potential moving forward.
Steve H.-
Glad to hear you will cover talented, untested 3-year-olds next week (3 starts). By any chance, is one of them trained by
Steve A., Ottothelegend, owned and bred by Three Chimneys? If so, is he likely headed for the Derby Trail via the Arkansas Derby? Also, has Three Chimneys ever either owned or bred a Kentucky Derby winner? As always, thanks for the in-depth info.
7.5 Furlongs
I wrote about Ottothelegend last week or the week before. Last I was told they have not decided what prep they will run in, if any.
Three Chimneys co-owned Chief’s Crown and Gun Runner. Both were 3rd in the Derby.
Interesting. If I’m not mistaken, Chief’s Crown was well bet in the 1985 KD, won by Spend A Buck (?). I had Gun Runner in a future wager in KD 2016 or 2017, but didn’t know he was owned by Three Chimneys. At some point, he may have been owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds. Three Chimneys may have bought into Gun Runner during Gun Runner’s racing career.
Do these stallion farms experience “pressure’ to produce a Triple Crown race winner? Think Ottothelegend has a promising racing career ahead of him, but running him in KD 2021 might be rushing things with only two career starts in mid-March. Just a thought.
Yes. Chief’s Crown was the 6-5 favorite in 1985, with the winner Spend A Buck the second choice at 4-1. He was owned, for the Derby at least, by Star Crown Stable and TCF. Gun Runner was owned for the Derby by Winchell Thoroughbreds, Besilu Stables, and TCF.
I doubt Otto will be in the Derby, with just one chance to get enough points.
I actually think it helps to get these going horses used to shipping. And I miss the days when they shipped in early to Churchill Downs. I still think it gives them an advantage.
I miss the old days with more races, dosage, and a real Derby winner profile. It seems we never get to see what these horses are truly capable of.
I miss longshots winning the Derby.
Their is an awful lot of us that feel the same way.
There should be a fantasy game just trying to guess where Bob Baffert will send his contingent in the 100 point prep races. Florida and Louisiana Derbies don’t appear to have the right timing. I can’t recall him ever sending a horse to the Bluegrass. That leaves 5-6 horses for the Wood, Arkansas and Santa Anita Derbies. He is going to have to juggle points consideration and big purses and shipping. He could run 3 at Santa Anita (Life is Good, Concert Tour and Medina Spirit) since they have the points and they wouldn’t have to ship but he loses out on a chance with those horses for graded victories and large purses.
I actually think it helps to get these going horses used to shipping. And I miss the days when they shipped in early to Churchill Downs. I still think it gives them an advantage.
You should really try to be more all encompassing in these rankings! Seriously though this was a glorious effort deciphering the nuances of the Kentucky Derby Trail!
Lol. I try. Getting tough coming up with something new to say.
Don’t worry Steve , to paraphrase an old commercial” when Steve writes or speaks we listen”
Lol. thanks
Interesting list this week, Steve. So many of these horses are still so green and/or unproven, even though we’re down to the final preps. Proxy, especially, is a real question mark to me. I’m in the swithers about Known Agenda, too, but I really like him. Good thing we have some solid favorites in the form of Essential Quality and Greatest Honour (as for the latter, I REALLY want to see a nice fat Beyer to pair up with his Brisnet and Thoro-graf figs).
I believe that Greatest Honour will knock your socks off in the Florida Derby.
Mr. Swithers was my 5th-grade teacher.
Concert Tour:
I’m still dubious on any horse that has to break the “Curse of Apollo.” To have it done twice in 4 years after such a drought of history seems hard to achieve. I know the game has changed, but this is still something I kind of believe in.
I also still don’t think he has run fast enough to win the KY Derby. Arkansas Derby will tell a lot more. Hopefully he gets some new faces to race against. Was not impressed with the group he beat in the Rebel.
I still favor Life is Good over him for the Baffert brigade.
Once its broken its broken, and its the same trainer who broke it. I refused to give in and never had Justify No 1 or possibly even No. 2 or 3. He not only broke it but won a Triple Crown breaking it. No one clings to history and the old days more than I do, but I have officially surrended to the new racing and new times in which ANYTHING can happen and the past is quickly disappearing. Look at how many brilliant horses we have now who didnt race at 2. Years ago no one would have tried it.
Why were there so many Derby starters in the ’70s that hadn’t raced as 2yos? Were they mostly horses that had little chance of winning but the owners wanted to be in the Derby?
Eddie F, I agree that owners and some trainers get Derby Fever.
That is why I always watch when Shug McGhaughey has a horse on the Derby Trail. Shug only points horses to the Kentucky Derby who are truly Derby horses. He lets the horse take him to the Derby.
His record certainly attests to that. Since 1989, a win, two 2nds, and a 3rd from five starters…and one of the 2nds and the 3rd were in the same race!
Robert B. What can you say? Superior horseman.