Derby Rankings – Aug. 14, 2020
Welcome once again to “Steve Haskin’s Derby Doz”…oops, I mean “Derby Rankings.” Whatever the name it is still the same quest as always — ferreting out that elusive Kentucky Derby winner. After 22 years, the one thing we have learned is that it is the journey that is often more fun and more stimulating than reaching your destination, because for most, the destination ends in disappointment and second-guessing. So, every year we search for that diamond in the rough and hope it ends, not only in financial gain, but bragging rights for an entire year.
This will be the next-to-last general overview of who is left on the Derby trail. In two weeks, we will post our final Derby Rankings installment, followed by a bonus column going over betting strategy and who is coming into the big race sitting on a peak performance. For these horses, it has been an arduous and seemingly interminable eight-month journey in which only the strong survive. Tiz the Law of the jungle…! ~ Steve Haskin
1—TIZ THE LAW (Barclay Tagg, Constitution – Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
Not only is “The Machine” still operating at full power, it looks as if the longer you run it the more power it generates. The reason he’s been ranked No. 1 for so long is that he has no flaws and has an amazingly high cruising speed, which made him even more deadly cruising through a :48 1/5 half in the Travers and then knocking off :24 quarters the rest of the way. You knew he was going to win at the five-eighths pole, he was so much in control of the race; that’s why he is so special . Everyone who has ever been around him from the day he was born has marveled at his intelligence and how quickly he learns things. He is all muscle and sinew, and if you want to know why he’s so tough and never takes a step backward, just look at his family tree. His broodmare sire, Tiznow, was as rugged and tenacious as they come and is having a resurgence as a sire and broodmare sire at age 23. His maternal great-grandsire, Go For Gin, is the oldest living Kentucky Derby winner at age 29. Go For Gin’s sire, Cormorant, lived until the age of 33. And Cormorant’s broodmare sire, Stage Door Johnny, was the oldest living Belmont Stakes winner until his death at age 31. Constitution’s broodmare sire, Distorted Humor, is still going strong at age 27 and his sire, Forty Niner, died recently at the remarkable age of 35. This is one tough, durable family. Watching Tiz the Law crush the Travers field by 5 1/2 lengths, becoming only the sixth horse in 156 years to break 2:01, while winning under wraps with his ears pricked, you just have to wonder who is going to beat this horse on Sept. 5. This no doubt is a horse on the verge of superstardom.
2—ART COLLECTOR (Tom Drury, Bernardini – Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor)
Well, it looks like we’ve got ourselves quite a Derby showdown. And it certainly isn’t your typical showdown. Barclay Tagg vs. Tom Drury and Manny Franco vs. Brian Hernandez Jr. You gotta love it. Like Tiz the Law, this horse does nothing wrong and knows how to take control of a race, but unlike Tiz the Law he has proven he can beat you on the lead, just off the pace, or coming from seven or eight lengths back, and he is more professional in the stretch, always keeping a perfectly straight course. Drury didn’t have him cranked for his best effort, and when he took Hernandez to the lead and set solid fractions like it was nothing, you knew no one was going to catch him, especially when you saw how he was on cruise control approaching the head of the stretch. And also like Tiz the Law, he was never really asked and won pretty much under wraps with his ears pricked. He has now finished first in five straight races and just keeps getting better. So it’s on to Churchill – the New York hero vs. the pride of Kentucky. It is hard to imagine at this point someone other than these two taking the roses. But they still have to run the race. Art Collector’s pedigree is so strong I will have to wait until the next Derby Rankings to do it justice. Let’s just say it is inundated with class and stamina everywhere you look. And we already know this horse has the class.
3 – HONOR A. P. (John Shirreffs, Honor Code – Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
Although I have my concerns following his defeat in the Shared Belief Stakes, he still probably is one of the few horses that can actually win the Derby if he is really as talented as previously advertised and John Shirreffs is able to work his magic on him, getting him ready to face up to 19 horses coming off only one 1 1/16-mile race in 13 weeks and stretching out three-sixteenths of a mile. Yes, the distance was short for him and he obviously wasn’t fully cranked, but I felt even an 80% Honor A. P. should have run over his three opponents, two of whom were totally overmatched. But he didn’t show any acceleration after switching leads. And let’s not forget he barely beat a 34-1 shot for second. But the biggest concern is whether he got enough out the race to propel him to the Derby off this one start. But there is one aspect of the race you can use to defend him. Racing in fourth going into the first turn, Mike Smith pulled the trigger early and sent him up to challenge Thousand Words for the lead with a bold early move entering the backstretch. Then he was put in neutral until the far turn, where he was pushed along to close in on the leaders. I believe this horse, with his big stride, is compromised when you have to make two moves with him, and while he looked like a sure winner turning for home, he was not able to sustain that second run. Although his speed ratings regressed, he did run a solid “1 1/2″ Thoro-Graph figure, which is something he can definitely build on, having already run a “zero” the race before.
4—CARACARO (Gustavo Delgado, Uncle Mo – Peace Time, by War Front)
I have to admit, as I have written before, I have a personal attachment to this horse going back to January, having recommended him to a prominent owner who was looking to purchase a potential Derby horse outright. Unfortunately, nothing ever materialized and he disappeared off the radar screen for six months. Now he has come back in full force with two huge runner-up performances in the Peter Pan and Travers, and we are only seeing the tip of iceberg with this colt, who is still lightly raced and is only going to get better as he gains experience with each race. To run the race he did in the Peter Pan off such a long layoff was a testament to his class and raw ability and the training skills of Delgado. Then to come back only three weeks later and finish a clear-cut second to the Derby favorite, while stalking the pace the whole way, bodes well for his ability to bounce back quickly after a hard race. What was most impressive was that it looked turning for home like the late-running Max Player was in perfect position to go right on by him, but he just kept going and finished two lengths ahead of him. Now, to come back in four weeks with another mile and a quarter race in a huge field, his third distance following a long layoff, is asking a lot of him. I don’t think he’s quite ready to beat Tiz the Law and Art Collector, but I do expect him to run another big race and certainly make his presence felt.
5—ATTACHMENT RATE (Dale Romans, Hard Spun – Aristra, by Afleet Alex)
Boy, have I been waiting for this all year. This colt has already been in my Top 12 several times this year, but he kept underachieving, mainly because he refused to change leads. I wrote four months ago: I know the talent is there. If he can accomplish what he’s done in his last three starts without changing leads then there definitely is something to work with.” But then he had rough trips in the Matt Winn and Blue Grass Stakes. He still ran decent enough races, but basically faded from the Derby picture…until now. His second-place finish to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby put him right back into contention for a number of reasons. Breaking from post 10, he got hung five-wide into the first turn, raced wide throughout, and when Joe Talamo asked him passing the three-eighths pole his rapid-fire acceleration was something I hadn’t seen before. In a flash he was right up there with the leaders and looked like a serious threat. Although he was no match for Art Collector, losing by 3 1/4 lengths, he finally changed leads smoothly and drew clear from the others, finishing 5 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse, and then galloped out very strongly, passing the winner going into the clubhouse turn. This was a big step forward, as indicated by his huge Thoro-Graph jump from a “5” to a “1/2,” and with his classy pedigree, this new and improved version of Attachment Rate looks ready take on all comers over his home track on Sept. 5.
6—SOLE VOLANTE (Patrick Biancone, Karakontie – Light Blow, by Kingmambo)
I am well aware I am being extremely stubborn ranking this horse so high, coming off a dismal effort in the Belmont Stakes and training up to the Derby off an 11-week layoff. But I have been on his bandwagon since early February and have had him ranked as high as No. 2 on several occasions. First off, the Belmont was a throw out race, as he came back too soon (nine days) after his previous start and exited the race with a back problem. This is the year to throw out conventional handicapping when it comes to the Derby, and no one has been more successful doing the unconventional than Patrick Biancone. I have always loved this horse’s European-like turn of foot and his stamina-laden European pedigree, and I just love the way he moves, more like a greyhound than the typical American horse. After watching Tiz the Law’s bravura performance in the Travers, Biancone was having thoughts about passing the Derby. But when he watched Art Collector’s huge effort in the Ellis Park Derby, he became more confident, feeling both these extraordinary colts, with their similar running styles, could eyeball each other and force a half in :46, especially with Authentic right up there, and that is all Biancone is looking for. This horse gets fit fast with all his rapid two-minute licks, and I loved his mile workout on the grass this week, finishing with his ears up and galloping out strong. Biancone said he wasn’t blowing at all afterward. I know this is a good horse, so let’s see how he continues to train.
7—NY TRAFFIC (Saffie Joseph Jr., Cross Traffic – Mamie Reilly, by Graeme Hall)
This horse doesn’t win very often and has never won a stakes, but he has placed in four straight graded stakes, and he just doesn’t know the word quit. He is one-paced and is always up around the leaders, but he never backs up and is always running strongly at the end. You may beat him, but he’s not going to make it easy for you. He came within one stride of nailing Authentic in the Haskell Invitational and earned a rare negative Thoro-Graph figure (negative 3/4), which was a significant jump from his pair of “2 3/4″ figures. I don’t know if he can win the Derby, but count on him being right there at the eighth pole.
8—AUTHENTIC (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
There is no doubting his brilliance and raw ability, but carrying his speed a mile and a quarter with his pedigree and his need-the-lead style is another matter. He likes to be in control on an uncontested lead, and even then he nearly gave away the Haskell after opening a clear lead at the eighth pole. His only defeat was the only time he faced adversity and had to fight with two other horses for the lead. His speed figures are excellent, but he will need a lot more than that if he’s going to have any shot to win the Derby with Tiz the Law and Art Collector breathing down his neck the whole way.
9—KING GUILLERMO (Juan Avila, Uncle Mo – Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band)
This is the biggest enigma of them all. I loved his last two races and everything about him. He has a beautiful head and a long smooth stride, is extremely professional, and most important, he has a world of ability. I can overlook an eight or even 11-week layoff in this crazy year, but a four-month layoff is something so far from the realm of the Kentucky Derby, I can’t even begin to compute it. I will never use the word never in 2020, and it must be noted he is working lights out in Florida, but can we bet on a horse with any confidence coming off that long a layoff? Talent-wise, he is right up there in with the top three. But I still need to see if this can be done. And if he shows it can, then kudos to him and especially to Avila..
10—THOUSAND WORDS (Bob Baffert, Pioneerof the Nile – Pomeroy’s Pistol, by Pomeroy)
I have to admit I have no idea who this horse is or how good he is. Is he Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde? He certainly has shown both sides to him. I do not see him winning the Derby. Then again, I thought he was done nearing the top of the stretch in the Shared Belief Stakes when he had to be whipped on the turn. But he kept pounding away and went on to score one of his narrow, ho hum victories, beating Honor A. P. And to make things even more complicated, he earned a lofty 104 Beyer figure, which I will never understand, but earned only a mediocre “3 1/4” Thoro-Graph figure, far slower than the runner-up. In short, I am ranking the horse with three victories and a second in stakes and not the horse with two awful performances in the San Felipe and Oaklawn Stakes.
11—DR POST (Todd Pletcher, Quality Road – Mary Delaney, by Hennessy)
I’m not sure if he wants to go a mile and a quarter, but he does have enough credentials to be taken seriously, most notably his solid second to Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes, even though that race was run around one turn. He was never a threat to Authentic and Ny Traffic in the Haskell, but his third-place finish was probably better than it looked, as that race did not suit him at all, with the first two running 1-2 the whole way around on a speed-favoring track and he couldn’t get any closer than 4 1/2 lengths. But he did pair up his “2” Thoro-Graph figure from the Belmont and that still puts him in the hunt with a move forward.
12—MAX PLAYER (Steve Asmussen, Honor Code – Fools in Love, by Not for Love)
He ran okay in the Travers, but I was expecting him to take a bigger move forward from the Belmont Stakes, in which he was coming off a long layoff. Although he was widest of all turning for home, I thought he was moving well enough to get second, but he really had no kick in the stretch, finding his best stride in the final yards when it was way too late. The :48 1/5 half was too slow him, but Caracaro, racing two lengths in front of him, left him five lengths behind in a flash on the turn, and it just took him too long to finally kick in. He could move forward in the Derby, but he has a lot of ground to make up. It was odd, however, that he would be taken away from Linda Rice after finishing third in the Belmont and Travers to the big Derby favorite.
13—ENFORCEABLE (Mark Casse, Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
I leave you with these names to ponder – Country House, 2nd at 65-1 (placed first); Lookin at Lee, 2nd at 33-1; Commanding Curve, 2nd at 37-1; Golden Soul, 2nd at 34-1; Bluegrass Cat, 2nd at 30-1; Closing Argument, 2nd at 71-1; and Invisible Ink, 2nd at 55-1. If you haven’t guessed where I’m coming from, this horse fits that bill. Yes, he’s coming into the Derby off an eight-week layoff, but he has so much foundation, having run in eight two-turn races, six of them graded stakes, he could benefit from coming into the race fresh. One thing you can count on, he will be closing in the stretch, and if he gets the pace he needs he could add his name to those above.
14—MAJOR FED (Greg Foley, Ghostzapper – Bobby’s Babe, by Smart Strike)
This is another horse I’ve been touting since his maiden victory in January and have had him in the Top 12 on numerous occasions. His second-place finishes in the Risen Star Stakes and Indiana Derby and his fast-closing fourth in the Louisiana Derby were all top efforts. I thought the Ellis Park Derby would be a good spot to prep for the Kentucky Derby, as he needed to improve on his Thoro-Graph numbers, and it would have been interesting to see how close he could have gotten to Art Collector. But it was decided to train him up to the Derby off an eight-week layoff. That may work out or it may not, I just don’t know. He doesn’t have the foundation of Enforceable, but I know he has the talent. And we also know he’s sharp judging by his half-mile work in :46 4/5.
15—PNEUMATIC (Steve Asmussen, Uncle Mo – Teardrop, by Tapit)
He was ranked No. 1 on my early list of new faces back in April, and he’s run well enough since, finishing third in the Matt Winn and fourth in the Belmont Stakes. I still believe he has a bright future, but I can’t rank him any higher until he runs in the August 15 Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth to pick up enough to assure he gets into the Derby field. Check back in the final Derby rankings after we see how he runs at Monmouth.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Well, there aren’t many others around to knock. There is still RUSHIE, third in the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, who skipped the Shared Belief Stakes. I’m not totally sure what his Derby status is at this time, as he is still not nominated, but, like so many others, he would have to train up to the race off an eight-week layoff. He was beaten more than eight lengths in the Blue Grass, so he also might have benefited from another race. His future might be a bit more down the road, but we’ll see how he works in the upcoming weeks and whether he’s headed to Louisville before making a final evaluation.
One fascinating horse is 2-year-old champion STORM THE COURT, who has not really moved forward at 3, but I did like his effort in the 1 1/16-mile La Jolla on grass. Although he was no threat to the winner, I did think he was running strongly in the stretch. No decision has been made yet, but the grass to dirt angle is always interesting, and he does want more distance. I was actually surprised when he earned an excellent “1” on Thoro-Graph in the Ohio Derby, his last start on dirt, although the winner and runner-up did not run well in their next starts.
As a historian, I can only relay historical trends with a bit of skepticism, because the First Saturday in May bears no resemblance to the first Saturday in September, as Derby horses are more advanced physically and mentally and have more foundation and racing experience. So, we are all venturing into unknown territory.
Please note: For newcomers reading the Derby Rankings, you will often see references to the Thoro-Graph figures, which are the figures I follow, as well as an occasional reference to the Beyer, Equibase, and Brisnet figures, which are based purely on speed. The Thoro-Graph figures, which are more difficult to obtain unless you are a subscriber, are based not only on speed, but other factors, especially ground loss, which is extremely important in determining just how fast a horse really runs. Trainers, owners, and bloodstock agents swear by the Thoro-Graph figures, as well as the Ragozin figures, which are fairly similar. To make it as simple as possible, the lower the figure the faster the performance, but it is analyzing the trends of these figures that is most important. Any figure close to zero indicates a very fast and top-class horse. Any figure below zero, referred to as a negative figure, is exceptional. If you read the term “bounce,” it refers to a horse that ran so much faster than he had previously run, there is a good chance he will regress (or bounce) off that effort if he comes back too quickly. Ideally, you want to see a horse make steady progress so that he will run his peak figure on Derby Day. If anyone has any questions about speed figures, feel free to email me at Sehaskin@aol.com.
Así os ahorráis un poquillo de dinero con las pilas.
Sigh, not sure why my other post didn’t go through, but…
HAP looked fantastic in his work today; he’s thriving coming up to the Derby.
From DRF:
Smith had worked Honor A. P. on the two prior Saturdays as well, which both Smith and Shirreffs thought was essential for Honor A. P.’s progress towards the Derby.
“It gives Mike more confidence, and us more confidence,” Shirreffs said. “The horse responds.”
Both the previous works were shorter and faster.
“Those two works put some air in him,” said Smith, who was wearing the silks of owners Lee and Susan Searing. “This was just a maintenance work. He’s fresh and happy. He did this all on his own. I adjusted a little on him and he took off, all on his own. I’m really happy. He did that all within himself. A happy seven-eighths.
“He gave me goosebumps all over my body. He’s going in a happy and fit horse. That was above and beyond what I was hoping for.”
I just saw the work – he looked fantastic. Both Mike and John seemed pleased, lol. You can hear John say “Nice!”…
Honor A.P. has his final #KyDerby work going 7f in 1:27 1/5 @DelMarRacing.
“I’ve got goosebumps down my legs.” – @mikeesmith10
https://twitter.com/tvgjoaquin/status/1299798992721596417?s=21
Actual work:
https://twitter.com/delmarracing/status/1299800114366541825?s=21
I think there’s going to be early backstretch moves in this year’s Derby–unlike last year’s weirdly run race–where nobody ever made a move….you don’t get many like that one, War Emblem also had no challengers—I’m getting closer vibes this year, Honor A P…Thousand Words…Sole Volante….and Tiz the Law—a four horse trifecta box—-11 days out, a lot depends on the track but I’m expecting fast.
magnificent points altogether, you just received a new reader.
What might you suggest about your post that
you simply made a few days ago? Any certain?
Max looked really good in his workout today….I think he’s going to run very well in the Derby.
Looking forward to it, Steve ! The history of the man it’s named for is also fascinating…and tragic
It was actually named after father. William Woodward Sr.
Oops, thanks Steve !
Just let everyone know my next blog will be tomorrow (Tuesday) about NYRA changing the distance of the Woodward back to a mile and a quarter and a look back to the race’s origins when the mile and a quarter Woodward usually crowned the Horse of the Year and was the main path to the Hall of Fame. Some great memories
Hey Steve I just heard a guy say it’s the first time a horse has won at ten furlongs BEFORE the kentucky Derby—-did not Canonero II win at ten furlongs in Venezuela? I know he ran the distance down there….
I think you’re right. Good point.
Yes, Canonero won at a mile and a quarter, but Tiz would be the first horse to win at a mile and a quarter the race before the Derby. Canonero actually had three 6 1/2 furlong races and another race after his mile and a quarter win.
This interview with Mike is fantastic; I was especially interested in the comments about the SB
https://twitter.com/watchxbtv/status/1297295233986617344?s=21
Lots of good info in Jay Privman’s article.
***“Another good workout,” Smith said after dismounting. “He galloped out really good past the wire. He had a lot of energy. I had a hard time pulling him up.”
By the time he brought Honor A. P. to a stop, “He went a good mile and an eighth,” Smith said.
Honor A. P. last Saturday polished off five furlongs in 59.40 seconds. He then proceeded to gallop out an extra furlong in 12 flat for a six-furlong gallop-out time of 1:11.40. The work this time was more for stamina than speed. ***
Here’s the link…….
HAP looked fantastic…..my god, those strides, lol; he’s going to devour CD and every bit of that 1 1/4. What I love is how he didn’t want to pull up.
https://twitter.com/DelMarRacing/status/1297263450805026816?s=20
Unfortunately, TVG didn’t air the work, but it seems like HAP looked good again:
Per Jay Privman
Honor A.P. with @mikeesmith10 goes 5f in 1:00.20, gallop out 6f in 1:12.20, 7f in 1:25.40.
Early splits 12, 24, 36.20, 47.60
One more work here at @DelMarRacing next weekend before departing for Ky
I’m having such a hard time deciding whose bandwagon to be on. It would be hard enough straddling two, but there are THREE (and they are your top 3) who my heart and mind tell me to back. First of all, who can honestly dispute Tiz the Law? On top of his amazing performances, he has the whole Sackatoga story riding with him. I’ve been a fan of Honor A.P. (and, notably, his name) ever since first seeing him. I am hoping that the Shared Belief was an anomaly. Now, Art Collector is a favorite for a completely different reason. He was bred by the same individual as Golden Missile who is the sire of my horse, Runaway Wildcat. Mr. Lunsford was (and probably still is) a big supporter of Georgia racing. He was a huge help to us in the Georgia TOBA. I guess I’m just going to hope for a cleanly run race and that one of my favorites crosses the line first.
Art Collector is a serious colt. The unknown quantity is Shirl’s Speight.He has won his only 2 starts by wide margins without feeling the whip. A time of 1:19.97 for 7F an any surface is exceptionally fast.
Go with the best horse……HAP……
Hey Steve
If you are still on texting terms with John Shirreffs, do you think you could find out the status of Thunder Code and Rampion? Thank you!!!
Nice to see you back Steve. The Derby wouldn’t be the same without your input. As you will know there are others ranking the possible twenty starters – ideas differ – but your knowledge of thoroughbreds is indispensable. Am not happy to read here that Ny Traffic is a one-runner. Hope his jockey will know when to give the go signal. As you will note I am a fan!!
Thanks so much, Judith. I appreciate it
Ricardo Santana, Jr. will be riding Max Player
Why am i the only one that has talked about how TIZ THE LAW tries to lug in every race?……
Because he doesnt? In the Travers he drifted out, then Franco brought him in and he ran straight to the wire. Where do you see lugging in?
seriously?……..do you see his head out?…..thats the jockey……omg
You’re seeing things that aren’t there…
No…….i’m right…..where is the third blind mouse?
I’m pretty new to this, so I am not sure I know what you mean by “lugging in.”
Could you tell me at what times you see him luggin in a couple of his races, so I can go see what you mean?
Horses can have a propensity to lugging in or out due soundness, pain, mental etc. Search for ‘horses that lug out’ and in “Doc’s Products, Inc. Presents How To Fix: Horses That Lug Out” there is a good explanation there.
Peri! Yay, I’m so glad you made it here!
FYI, HAP will be working again tomorrow at 12:45 PST, right before the races….. and like last week, Mike will be aboard. I’m guessing this work won’t be as fast, but neither do I think it will be a long, slow work – Mike wouldn’t be needed for that.
I’m sure it will be on TVG……
Horses lead with their left legs around the far turn, when they turn into the home stretch, horses that are full of run sometimes don’t change to their right leads in timely manner—and they lug inside on their left leads…a famous lugger was Cougar II, and it cost him a big win in the 1971 Woodward Stakes…..you can see the riders “throwing a cross” at the top of the stretch, in attempt to change the horse over to the right lead, a quick turn of the horse’s head to prompt them—a horse’s ability to shift leads is often the difference maker in a winning race or not.
The horse wants to go in……this why you see his head go out…..this is the jockey steering him…..funny…..people below are saying it can mean bad things………but they are not concerned about TIZ………you saw it in their explaination right?…….that was why i posted “why am i the only one that has brought this up”
My top 12 at this point are
1. Tiz the Law
2. Tiz the Law
3. Tiz the Law
4. Tiz the Law
5. Tiz the Law
6. Tiz the Law
7. Art Collector
8. Honor A.P.
9. Caracaro
10. Ny Traffic
11. Authentic
12. Major Fed
Hello Eddie – 6 Tiz The Law’s on your list! One Juggernaut is enough, the other horses don’t need 5 more clones LOL . I still believe that AC can get the win because IMO he could get the jump on Tiz with the break and even though Tiz has been awesome, I can see AC holding him off on a track that he loves at CD. Should be a good race between the top 3. Only 18 days away now. With Winning Impression going to the Derby and Shir’ls Speight probable, that gets the field up to 19.
Hey, Joe. You’re right. I got carried away there. Tiz should have gotten only the first FIVE spots. That way, I could have added King G. 🙂 So Dallas Stewart is looking to have another ITM Derby longshot….Interesting.
Hahahahaha, our top 6 are the same!
#1-6 or #6-11? 🙂
#1-6
(The site ate my previous reply with emojis. What gives?)
What odds are you offering for the Tiz the Law trifecta?
For the trifecta with only Tiz, surprisingly high, lol
The speedy Authentic has only lost once. He appears to have stamina issues. But so did the speedy Bayern who won the BCC. A ranking of #11 seems low.
watch bayern’s races……he was game…..fought back many times…..
The last horse to win the Derby after not being 1st or 2nd at the stretch call in the last prep OR within 2.5 lengths of the leader at the stretch call in the last prep was….Ferdinand in 1986. Which Derby “possibles” have that trend to buck?: Max Player, South Bend, Necker Island, Dr Post, Enforceable, Finnick the Fierce, Rushie, and Sole Volante. There is some hope, though, because this is obviously not a typical Derby. On the other hand, the horses that were up close at the stretch call in their final preps have another obstacle in their path to a Derby win: Tiz the Law.
Major Fed is my dark horse. Hoping for a strong pace and a Mine That Bird finish and price.
Just wish he had run in the Ellis Derby. Thats a long layoff into the Derby. I have always been high on this horse.
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Interesting
Great to have you back Steve! IMO Art Collector will give a big challenge to the big FAV Tiz The Law. I am glad that I locked in at 20-1 on Art Collector in KDFW5. I agree on your high ranking of Attatchment Rate. I can see him running big and finishing 3rd or 4th at a bomb price. Sole Volante and Major Fed IMO could be bombs to spice up the big exotics. HAP has been working well and is certainly a major contender. King G is training lights out at CD and is still a threat even with the 4 month layoff.
Hey JoeP, great to see to see again. Thank you very much. Cant argue with annything you said. King G really has me baffled
Max had his first workout over the CD strip today…..he looked good, I think.
5F 1:01.80. Splits: 13.80, 26.20, 37.80, 50. Out 6F 1:14.60.
Hopefully, Mike will learn something about the horse. He has been making these early moves with horses the last few years. He has to make one run with horse.
Well to be honest, I didn’t have much of an issue with the ride as HAP got clobbered at the start. That put him behind the eight ball, and he had to (a) rush you to not lose position and (b) make an early move to get to where he wanted to be in the first place. I won’t worry until it’s much closer to the race, but..this does make me a little nervous.
In that field, being two lengths behind, I never thought he was behind the eight ball. Just sit on him, let him get into a good strde and make one rin with him. No need to make that big early move with a horse liek that
That’s a good point, Steve.. Hopefully he and John spoke about that because odds are that things won’t go smoothly in the Derby either. At least we know that that HAP won’t give up…for a race with a tiny field, he had quite a bit of adversity.
Steve, so glad that your dozen or so back. I have enjoyed reading and following you for years now. Look forward for all of your valuable insight in your upcoming articles.
Thank you so much, Dwane. I really appreciate that.
My friend has noticed that Mike Smith has been in a bad slump at DM. She says he’s making premature moves most of the time, as he did on HAP in the Shared Belief (I think there was a reason for that). It’s funny – tend to worry about everything, but I’m not here. I’ve always believed that great athletes will always find their way out of slumps…and, in this case, there’s still a couple of weeks before the Derby.
Well, I have seen a few bad rides–he took a shot at the lead in the La Jolla, trying to test a real nice colt Smooth as Strait down the back side, ended up finishing last—horse never went for the early lead before…he does that more often than most riders, I just think he’s not going to do it in the Kentucky Derby, he’ll settle behind horses—he’s Big Money Mike!-
I hope so…it would be frustrating to lose due to an itchy trigger finger
Over the past year I’ve also read people in comments on articles on other sites complaining that Mike only knows how to ride like he’s riding Zenyatta and come from the clouds at the end of the race. They can’t all be right about Mike’s riding strategy, when they are making contradictory statements of fact.
Steve, did you catch HAP’s work? If so, what did you think?
I loved his work. It was just what he needed. He was in rhythm the whole way with great extension, and while Mike was pushing on him in the stretch he needed that coming off that last dull effort. I think this work really woke him up and gave him much needed fitness, specially with the strong gallop out.
Exactly ! He needed to work up a good sweat – that work did him a world of good, physically and mentally. It’s funny, but you’ve always said it’s hard to tell how fast HAP is going because of his four white stockings, but there was a point that you could really see him motoring…TVG mentioned that Mike waved the stick at him, which I’m not used to seeing (even just hitting him with it in the SB was a surprise, I think because HAP had, always before, given everything he had when asked), but which definitely encouraged him. How fun would that have been with fans in the stand? Maybe when they come back, there can be more workouts before the races start
Hello Steve:
Very glad to see you landed on your two feet at SECRETARIAT.com
There is only ONE Steve Haskin when it comes to Thoroughbred horse racing.
You may remember me from our OXBOW Derby Dozen days.
Great to hear from you again, James. Good old Oxbow. One of my biggest scores ever in the Preakness boxing the trifecta
I’m not sure why but this website is loading incredibly slow for me.
Is anyone else having this problem or is it a issue on my end?
I’ll check back latesr and see if the prblem stioll exists.
webpage
Is Webpage your surname? If so, the whole family must have had a difficult time adjusting when Internet usage became the rage in the ’90s.
LOL. Still th same Eddie F. I love it.
It’s not bad for me at all, webpage, hopefully you can get it fixed.
Thanks Nelson, and good deciphering. Lol
The following are the 19 horses most likely making the field for the Derby providing the filly Swiss Skydiver and Rushie (not nominated) are not entered and there is no horse coming from Europe or Japan:
Tiz the Law
Authentic
Art Collector
Honor A. P.
Ny Traffic
King Guillermo
Thousand Words
Dr. Post
Max Player
Caracaro
Pneumatic
Enforceable
Major Fed
Storm the Court
Attachment Rate
Sole Volante
Finnick the Fierce
Winning Impression
Necker Island
Necker Island with only 14 points is in (19th place) and even Three Technique with nine (9) points could have made the 20th spot.
I am not sure if the imposing presence of Tiz the Law and the obdurate pandemic will lead to a 14-horse Derby … what is your take on this?
Hi Nelson, is Jesus
Hi Davids… Jesus Team (18 points) is not nominated
I think it will end up with twenty entered. If it’s less, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
I hope there will be 20. Otherwise, they might put another asterisk for not having a full gate. LOL
Ive been saying for months…….why worry about points?……..there wont be 20……..
You’re right! How do you know these things? It’s scary.
Nineteen entries. Wait and see.
Excellent work, Nelson! We can’t rule out horses such as Shirl’s Speight that may be entered when/if the number drops below 20. There is no cure for Derby Fever.
You know Roger Attfields wants no part of the Derby with a horse with two lifetime starts and never been on dirt. But Fipke is getting caught up in all the hype. This horse belongs in the BC Mile
The Mile would be perfect. Attfield’s only Derby runner was the experienced Talkin Man in ’95, and you know how that went. 🙁
Steve, you must be commended on ranking the 12 prospects behind the big three. From my perspective, the lesser 12 have more negatives than positives in winning the Kentucky Derby with good post positions and flukey dream trips their only chances of toppling the big three. Enforceable, appears to me in having the best chance of usurping the big boys place in the sun. Good luck to them all though, it’s a horse race so anything can happen.
Thanks Steve, for creating the Derby Rankings, the Kentucky Derby build up needed the boost. Onwards and upward.
So good to be back!
Yes Paula, comfort in times of distress. Glad to see everyone is here.
Thank you, David. This is such a bizarre year, we really dont what we’re dealing with regarding ssome of these horses, especially coming of long layoffs. The favorites look like standouts, but its going to be fun finding bombs to use under them
Yes, Steve, that’s the fun of it really. Although the big three appear insurmountable, racing results are seldom governed on pure logic.
Hi Steve, glad to see you back. Will you be publishing a weekly newsletter to flag new postings? Apologies if this is addressed in a comment already.
Thanks but I’m not sure what youre asking
This is a little off topic but I was thinking a good article would be the influence of Secretariat’s daughters on the breed. When we looked at all the horses in the Derby Dozen one week, we found that every single one had at least one instance of Weekend Surprise, Terlingua or Secrettame in their pedigree.
That has been a common occurrence for some time now.
Linebreeding to Somethingroyal was also a productive breeding method, before her granddaughters came on the scene.
Eddie, I couldn’t reply to you in the thread about HAP’s work, but I thought that was really cool, also. I saw several tweets about it, wondering why Mike was wearing the silks. Possibly it’s because HAP’s owners were there………
I suppose that’s possible. But I don’t recall ever seeing silks worn in a workout — and, of course, owners are often present for the morning works.
They haven’t been allowed in track for awhile..at least until recently. Mike probably just thought it would be a nice thing to do…
I said “ever”. That precedes the pandemic. LOL
Working big horses which are prepping for a race mid-day or during the races is something that Santa Anita has done over the years. The fans love it, The jockeys frequently wear the owner’s silks when doing so.
I recall reading of how trainers would trick horses into thinking they were racing by sending them to a workout with a rider wearing silks, thus getting a better workout than they might otherwise get. Think Tom Smith with Seabiscuit, for example.
Mike has not worn silks in his morning works with Honor AP in the past, but maybe they were pulling out all the stops to try to ensure a faster work?
I don’t know, I just doubt that horses would know the difference. I imagine it would make a difference that the jockey rides the horse differently – like in a race- than an exercise rider would. I said this on HRN, but it’s like when Alec in the Black Stallion felt – in the big race- that the Black wasn’t into it, so he threw off his goggles and helmet and rode him like he did back on the island!
Steve, what did you think of the work?
That’s exactly what I was thinking! A strategy to get him to do a serious work by giving him the feeling it was a race.
So good to be back to the Derby Rankings! I totally agree with spots 1-4. I would move King Guillermo up into #5 though. Tiz the Latin the Travers dominated and did it easily. He was geared down at the end and needed no encouraging. I believe Barclay Tagg, Robin, and the Sackatoga group have a great horse in TTL. All they have to do is keep him in good shape and uninsured and the year is their’s for the taking until the BCC and then it gets interesting with the older horses. I still think he is the best horse in the country right now even when including the older horses. Art Collector is a step below Tiz the Law to me. I only see him winning if TTL has a bad ride or bad trip. Honor A.P. Is going to be tuned up to the max by John Shirreffs. He has the ability to make this a run for TTL’s money but I don’t know if there is enough time left to get him to that point based on his last race. I do believe Mike Smith not being on him before his last race was a detriment and cost him. I think you made a great point, Steve, about Mike having to make 2 moves rather than one big one. As for Thousand Words, I do not think he is in the TTL or Art Collector’s zip code. He would have to get lucky to win. NY. Traffic is also very good and could hit the board. I am so excited to have Steve back and be able to read his Derby Rankings. At least that is one good thing in a not so wonderful year. Thank you to Leonard Lusky and Secretariat.com.
Hi Paula!!!!!
I think if HAP is back to himself, and he should be with a normal workout routine – not like before the SB – he’s absolutely formidable. I think Tiz is awesome, but I have enormous faith in my beautiful, long-striding colt.
Mike worked HAP beyond the 5 furlongs, and I imagine at least one of these next two works will be 7 furlongs. HAP got a good sweat going today -I think that’s important. I had real concerns about his foundation going into today – I have less so now, but still have some. However, John is no fool.
Hi Betsey!
I saw that about HAP! What a work. The race is going to be a
humdinger. So glad Mike is back on him for his training. Yes,
it would be better if they had more time but I understand that
he will have 2 more works before shipping. He is going to be
very competitive. I knew John would do everything to get him
primed and he is doing just that.
That was so much fun……..It would have been amazing if fans could have been in the stands. When the track opens for fans, they should do that periodically – if a trainer would be willing; I think it was loads of fun.
I hope so. As good as Tiz is and as awesome as he looked last week, I think this crop is top heavy with real talent. HAP is going to be a juicy price. I don’t usually bet unless I’m at the track, and if my favorite horses are short prices, I don’t bother – I just enjoy rooting them on. In this case, if HAP continues to thrive, I think I’m going to place a nice bet. Since I can’t seem to get any of my unemployment payments, I might need to win this bet to bring some money in, lol
Betsy, I think HAP is going to be flying with Mike on board Derby day. Just my gut.
Thank you very much, Paula, Great to see you here.
LOL, I meant UNINJURED not UNINSURED. Sorry.
Art Collector would be Derby favorite a lot of years, but this year a horse has won at 10 furlongs, and easily at that, making Art a risky 7/2 shot…I still like Honor A P and wish Mike does NOT try one of his patented early move rides—-let Franco sweat Art Collector’s speed, and take off the pace for one big late run with “Longstockings” (Honor A P)…. facing two unbeaten in 2020 three year olds. Maybe a $20 winner. Maybe a new Shirreffs on town!
In all of HAP’s previous races, Mike had ridden him perfectly. The SB was just a mess – the colt was slammed at the start, so he had to move in order not to lose position. I had said before the race that I thought Mike needed to be aggressive – I think had the colt gotten off to a good start, he wouldn’t have had to have moved early – he would already have been in position.
I agree with Steve that MS’s early move on HAP lost them the race. Making a move early and using up some gas while the others are on cruise control puts the horse at a disadvantage at the end of the race. That move by MS took the sting out of HAP’s finishing kick, and HAP was not able to sustain his rally.
Hopefully, Mike will learn something about the horse. He has been making these early moves with horses the last few years. He has to make one run with horse.
I don’t think they wanted the early lead, they wanted to finish–they also wanted to win but I thought mike made too early of a move, and they were stalling around the far turn—-they got 2nd on class—I thought it was a poor ride. I remain on board, but Mike should let the Derby favorite worry about the pace of Art Collector, is what I’m saying—I thought Longstockings ran a sneaky good race—the winner Thousand Words ran very well, too.
My only question is did he get enough out of the race for horse who is going 1 1/4 miles off one 1 1/16 race in 13 weeks?
Steve I think he did get enough—track that day was playing so tiring! When it is that deep…..I see horses making the east coast trips and winning races–not saying he can beat that NY bred, who is reminding me of a certain Cal bred from a few years ago—peaking in his prep race under wraps then a big Derby win—but I do think Honor A P can make a race out of it!
Nice to see Kiss Today Goodbye prove that his last race was an outlier, best forgotten, and beating the notable Cezanne. Do you think KTG has much undeveloped potential remaining?
With Go For Gin and Forty Niner behind Tiz The Law, how could I not love this horse? He has horses I loved working with and ponied to the post and Blessed me with memories I treasure. I love watching this horse. Now I love him even more. Perhaps I will go sit with his Great Great Grand Sire to watch him in the Derby. I usually do go spend time on Derby Dary with my dear boy Gin.
Do you work at the Horse Park?
Color and markings aside, Tiz the Law’s “game face” is almost indistinguishable from Tizfiz’s and Tiznow’s, if you compare race photos. Their expressions are very similar.
Tiz the Law seems to be that rare colt to have gotten the best from both parents. He’s already surpassed his sire and grandsire as racers, and with some luck and time may well prove better than Tiznow — even if he doesn’t achieve the identical Breeders Cup Classic double.
The fact that Tiz earned his best figs by far (109 BSF, 115 BRIS) when he stretched out in the 10f Travers tells me that he’ll be extremely difficult to beat 4 weeks later at the same distance. Art Collector seems to be running the same race figure-wise in his last three and he’d need a significant improvement, but Honor AP could spring an upset if he runs to his SA Derby effort. If.
If he’s himself, I would expect an even better effort than the SA Derby. The big IF is really whether he’s got the foundation. Speaking of…
TVG showed HAP’s workout live, and he looked great …even before the time of 59 and change was announced. The announcers mentioned that Mike rode him out past where the work “ended”, and you could see him wave the whip, showing HAP he wanted more. The colt worked up a good sweat, which he needed….just a fantastic work.
Wow, nice fractions…
Per Camilla Yakteen on Twitter:
Honor A.P. Worked and galloped out Mile with splits 23.4, 36, 47.2, 59.2, 111.2, 123.4, 140 @WatchXBTV
From the wire to 7/8 pole and out he looked extremely good. Work coming shortly on @WatchXBTV
Per DM website:
Wow, he moved faster than I thought!
**Del Mar clocker Toby Turrell, who timed the move, followed the horse through six furlongs in 1:11.40, seven eights in 1:23.80 and a mile time of 1:40.00. “It was a terrific move,” Turrell said. “You could have just as easily given him a six furlong time and his gallop out was outstanding. His seven-furlong time is the best gallop out we’ve seen here this summer.”**
From DM web site
Per Jay Privman, HAP will work two more times at DM before going to KY. I suppose it doesn’t matter if he works over CD track as he’s going to run regardless of how he handles it, lol
Pretty cool to see a workout in which the jock wears the silks. HAP looked really strong when Smith urged him.
Re Tix’s figures, interestingly his equibase figures have been quite high for every race this year. I think they were really taking into consideration the ease with which he was winning and the fact that he was pretty much eased down before the wire in every race. If you want a nice read, check out Equibase result chart for the Travers.
I’ve noticed recently that some chart makers must have their eyes on the Bulwer-Lytton Writing Contest.
Tiz is so good that he inspirers the jaded chart makers. That’s a nice endorsement.
Eddie, I was unable to reply to this post of yours :
***Watch for his works beginning next week. The tipoff for his readiness in the SA Derby was the bullet 5f work in 59 1/5 two weeks before the Derby. He didn’t have one like that for the San Felipe or Shared Belief.***
No he didn’t…but IMO, he’s got to start now with the drill, to get HAP’s head back in the game; he likes to run, let him run occasionally
Yes, that’s fine as long as there’s a good one closer to the race.
Thanks, Dewey. It really wasnt about the thoro-Graph numbers. I had him there before the T-Graph figures came out. It was all visual and how much I always thought of the horse before he stopped changing leads and underschieved. This was rude awakening and new horse and perhaps hes ready to make his presence felt at a big price.
Steve, it’s great to once again have your Derby Ratings to digest. I think you pretty much nailed it although I was somewhat surprised to see Attachment Rate at No. 5. This may be due in part to my unfamiliarity with Thoro-graph. If you feel that good about him, I will definitely take a closer look. As for Tiz the Law, I thought his Travers win was an awesome performance and the way he finished up would suggest he had something left in the tank for the Derby. He’s definitely the key horse for my exotics. One horse of value (?) that I will include is NY Traffic. He has no quit in him just like a gritty street fighter. Got to love his heart.
It looks like the Derby will not draw a full field this year. Let’s hope there are no more injuries or defections.
Looks like many of us had no trouble finding your Derby rankings on the new site, Secretariat.com, Steve. I can’t recall any Derby run under normal conditions where the favorite was so obvious and so dominant. Tiz looked so happy and ran so beautifully in the Travers he’s become what late 19th century plungers would call a “mortal lock.” (Also known as a “moral lock” in some old recounts.) Lots of good options for the exotic bettors, too.
Question for you: in some responses it sounds like you are planning to attend the Derby in person. True? Or will you be watching from the safety of your home sofa.
Thanks in advance.
LOL, total misconception, Mary Ellen. No way I would go to the Derby, even if there was no pandemic. My Derby days are over.
Glad to hear you will be safely at home! I plan to do the same myself.
Agree about the small font size. I use my zoom feature to increase to 125% size. “Just right” said Papa Bear.
Always a complaint instead of just being thankful to have Steve Haskin and a comment section.
Thank you. All suggestions are welcome. Nothing is perfect and there are things I would like to change. Hopefully they can perfect it.
I just do not see Art Collector as battle tested as much as Honor AP. Looking at patterns, Honor AP finished a strong second in the San Felipe against an arguably stronger field than Art Collector faced in either of his top stakes races. Then he was off for another horse months and he runs another strong second where it seemed to me they were trying different tactics keeping him closer to the lead. I think Honor AP is the real deal. He has defeated 2 past G1 winners and one future G1 winner proximate to his top performance in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. I like Art Collector but would not be surprised to see him finish 5th or worse, though it would be nice to see another Blue Grass Stakes winner take the Derby.
Maybe this website should upgrade the Chat program…..its not that difficult……if you are having haskin here…..UPGRADE
pUT SOME GOOGLE ADSENSE….
All suggestions are welcome. Anything in particular youre referring to? Upgrade in what way?
It would be nice to be able to upvote people’s postings when we agree, not sure if that’s possible.
There you go!
Hmmm. I had a thumbs up emoji in that reply.
STEVE, we gotta have emojis!!!
Being able to log-in and stay in so that we don’t have to keep tying our name and e-mall. The ability to block or ignore people. An edit function. Also, I’m unable to reply to Eddie, so there seems to be an issue with longer conversations
Steve – so great to have the “rankings” back online and offering the best insight available in what has been a crazy year for the Derby! I think my biggest question remains whether or not they will actually be able to have any spectators as things continue to heat up in Louisville – both pandemic and politically.
I have loved King Guillermo from the get go – but cannot get past Tiz the Law and his continued dominance. Makes me think a lot more of his broodmare sire than his sire. That blaze, though wider, and that eye. He is not going to give up when the going gets tough, regardless of what track he runs.
Cannot wait to read more great stories of these champions as well as those from the past. I’d love to see a story focused on His Emminence and Alan-a-Dale and the jockey who rode them toe Derby victory in back to back years, Jimmy Winkfield. Would also love to learn more about the brilliant but murderous Hastings – whose temperment was distilled but still present through his son and ultra famous grandson. And I’d love it if you would look at the Bing Crosby stable, since such fun was made of his slow finishers in “road” movies as well as Warner Bros cartoons. They couldn’t have been that bad! Regardless of what you choose to write about – I will be reading it eagerly. All the best!
Hi Lizzi.e. Thank you. I have no idea how its going to work with spectators. Good luck cramming thousands of people, mostly young, in the infield and expect them to wear masks and social distance. I wish I knew what to make of King Guillermo. He is the biggest enigma.
Latest is no infield or general admission. Allowing only about 23,000 reserved seats.
I remember when the san diego CHICKEN …….WENT out on his own,,…….the NAME , and suit was property of the radio station….So, he had to get a new suit……the DERBY DOZEN name is now B king………Now the DERBY RANKINGS…..
sTEVE……YOUR STILL THE ORIGINAL CHICKEN…..
LOL, thanks. I have never been complimented like that before
Yes, we KNOW Tiz will win if he runs the same…..this is horse racing. Yesterday i won a few hundred. Do you know how many BEST HORSES i beat ?…..this is the game…..this has been the YEAR OF THE CHALK…….I bet against TIZ …..I BET WITH AN HOUR TO GO in the last pool, because i think the odds on my horses will be slightly lower…….
HAP, AND AUTHENTIC…..8-1 AND 11-1
I respect your opinion, so please tell me why you like Authentic to beat Tiz the Law and Art Collector. I’m not seeing it. But I do respect his speed and and talent. More and more poeple seem to be liking him, so I might be missng something.
Hi Steve:
Congrats on the break with BloodHorse. Read your column over these many years and glad to see you back at work (definitely our gain ). Covid-19 will stop my streak of attending consecutive Derby’s @ 24. There are a couple of factors still TBD during Derby Week: Workouts and post position. They can sure muddle-up what appears to be a clear picture on paper.
We’ll be looking forward to your reports from CD. Will miss the coffee and doughnuts on the backside. They made people watching, media crush and workouts – 2nd only on Derby Day. Best of Luck and Good Health!!
Thank you and great to see you again. Youre better off not going to the Derby. Its going to be tricky trying to stay safe.
Hey
Hey is for horses.
:-))
Steve, great to see you pick up right where left off, albeit on a new website. Need to do something about the font size, but the information is insightful as usual. As you mentioned, this year’s edition is boiling down to 2 or three strong contenders for the win.
Hi again, Zany. I agree about the font size I’m going blind responding.
Ctrl shift + will get you a bigger font size.
Great to be able to see and digest your insights, Steve! I’m high on your number 4, Caracaro. Not sure he can beat the big three, but I’m taking the 29-1 just in case. One thing I do know is that he can get the 1 1/4 in 2:02 and no one else but tiz has ever gone that far.
I’m glad to see someone else “high” on Caracaro. I was struck by the way he moved, “flowed”, in the Travers. I’d like to see him give Tiz the Law a run for the Roses.
Great ranking Steve …I feel you are exercising a greater degree of freedom here…!
I do agree with the characterization of Tiz the Law as a flawless runner. Seeing him is a true delight to the senses. It was puzzling to me how some people looking for a flaw in Tiz the Law commented that he “was not improving and others could catch up”. But after the Travers it is now not far fetched to think that the son of Constitution is the best horse in America.
An atypical year could also bring a rare Quadruple Crown to Tiz the Law… this would be his chartered path to superstardom as you said…
Your analysis of Honor A.P.’s run in the Shared Belief is very telling. Those two moves you ably described proved futile for a horse with such long strides… the bright side is that there was a valuable lesson after that race and Mike Smith will surely be attempting that one sweeping move in Churchill’s stretch.
Touching the human side of the Derby Trail, it cannot be overlooked the good news for the Venezuelan Diaspora as two Venezuelan trainers, Gustavo Delgado and Juan Carlos Avila, were able to take two horses to the Kentucky Derby. I just hope that this occurrence opens more doors for them and also serves as inspiration for all the others to continue pursuing the American Dream…!
I am rooting for Caracaro and King Guillermo to perform well against one of the most solid Derby Favorites in History…
Hi Nelson. Thank you very much. How about the first ever Quintuple Crown adding the BC Classic. People here dont realize what grwat horsemen Venezuelans are going back to the amazing job Juan Avila did with Canonero. They must always be respected.
Thanks for your reply Steve… just praying for Tiz the Law to remain happy and healthy…this would be the only thing needed for a perfect season. The BCC will just confirm him as the greatest New Yorker Ever…!
Indeed, as you have many times conveyed, Juan Arias did a superb job in keeping the “Venezuelan Cannonball” competitive despite their odyssey; and Gustavo Avila’s ride was not only a true inspiration for innumerable jockeys in Venezuela but for many Latin American riders as well.
Caracaro and King Guillermo are somehow carrying the flag of an exceptional Venezuelan feat in 1971.
Hola, Nelson. I’m with you on the Venezuelan trainers. I hope both hit the board!
Hola Eddie… It is nice to have you rejoining the Haskin community here… Yes! you will be reaping good payouts in your exotics if the two Venezuelan representatives are able to finish in the money.
P.S. I hope Secretariat.com are working on making this space more “Disqus-like” so you can use your very expressive emojis 🙂
Thanks, Nelson! But wait….You ended with an emoji, and there it is! Hmmm….
Tiz The Law indeed looks like the most likely winner. Art Collector has run like a champion. Honor A P has tons of talent.
I have seen no chinks in Tiz The Law’s armor. Art Collector might not like the extra 1/8th but he also has become a monster. Horses coming out of the blue sometimes are not appreciated. Honor A P will have trouble in close quarters. He is strong but I don’t see the athletic nimble ness, if that is a word/phrase. I am a sucker, but I feel that Authentic will get better with every race. Not so sure he idled or was just loping around as he thought the race was won. He did re-engage when he spotted NY Traffic.
Good to see you, Eric. I would give Authentic the benefit of the doubt, but I just dont see him beating the top 3 with his style of running and his pedigree. He wont get things his own way this time.
Steve, what a joy to see and read your new Derby Rankings. It’s even better than the DD. Three better, to be precise. This is the first time that I will have come to the conclusion that a Derby favorite is a lock, joining death and taxes. In normal years, I narrow the field to five or six possible betting choices by using an assortment of historical trends. Then the real handicapping starts. This year, I’m looking at it more like just another big race (like a typical Travers) because, as you said in your concluding paragraph, a May Derby has no relevance to a September Derby. Well…maybe a tiny bit of relevance.
The big question about a horse in a typical Derby is whether he’s capable of beating a quality field at 10 furlongs. We look at things like BRIS late pace, final fractions in the last prep, visuals, and pedigree. But this time, we have an entry that has already done it! And brilliantly to boot. Your rankings will help me in finding a couple of value horses to put under Tiz the Law.
Great to see you back, Eddie. Thanks for coming aboard. And I appreciate the kind words. It is so hard to look past Tiz the Law. As you said he has already answered the question we ask of all Derby horses. We just have to see if he can do it again. But he keeps moving forward. I really like No. 4, 5, and 6 as price horses underneath and possibly Enforceable to pck up some pies late.
I see Tiz as exceptional, am skeptical of Art Collector. I think Honor AP and Thousand Words will both show up near the top.
Welcome back Mr. Haskin! What a spectacular win for Tiz the Law and his connections. I love the fact that the race was a major goal for him. Art Collector certainly seems to be improving; it’s hard not to be a fan of his. With all the things that can go wrong in the derby, I believe that Caracaro or NY Traffic can take make some noise in the stretch.
Thanks, Mary Lou, I totally agree about Caracaro and Ny Traffic.
Thanks, Steve. I needed your input to fire me up about this very strange Derby. I can’t wait to see Tiz the Law in action again.
SH
Good to see your thoughts on the Derby and a great story on “Shorty”-Only you seem to bring such a light to these types of stories.
Luke
Thank you very much, Luke
Steve, I had to take my glasses off after the first sentence on Tiz the Law. Perhaps my high emotions are due to the longer season, the virus, the fact I have tickets to The Oaks & Derby….who knows?!?! What I do know is I am thrilled you have a new outlet for your expertise. I have more than one favorite. However, I hope it is the year of A.P. Indy, given the death this year of The Grand Old Champion. His blood runs through more than one of these colts, and A.P. knew exactly who he was. Will you give any hints of your favs in The Oaks…Hope so!!!! xoxo, Mary in Boone
Tiz, HAP, Art Collector………all grandsons or great-grandsons of the legendary Indy.. It would be appropriate if one of them one the Derby!
Good luck at the Derby, Mary. It’s going to be strange being there, and just stay safe. The Oaks looks like a great race, but I have to take a closer look and see if the run Gamine. Swiss Skydiver will be tough no matter who runs
Congrats on your new column! Have no major insights on the Derby except I cannot support the trainer of Sole Volante (tried to phrase that appropriately). Tiz looks like a major race horse. Sad seeing Enable avoid Love in Europe. Hope this is just as successful as your other Derby column! Good luck
Thanks very much. I’m just curious why you cant support Biancone? Because of past infractions? He paid his dues and he’s not the only top trainer with past infractions. He has a big challenge with this horse, and I just cant help it, I like this horse.
So happy your column is back, Steve! Tiz a pleasure.
Like you, I’m intrigued by King Guillermo.
Thanks very much. I hate to dismiss King Guillermo but I am apprehensive about going against every handicapping principal I know in handicapping the Derby.
Steve, layoff horses may not win the May Derby off a layoff, but they do win some big races. Invasor in the Classic comes to mind.
I so happy to be able to see you back again . Read you for years but never told you thank you. Thank you Swede from Nebraska’
Thank you so much, Roger. I really appreciate it. My daughter lived in Lincoln for several years before moving to Conn. last summer.
Well, good news…which I needed after hearing about Creed’s injury..
HAP will work tomorrow before the races, and Mike will be on board.
That sounds like a very serious work to me. He needs it
He really does, Steve. I don’t think DM changed their policy about jockeys not working horses in the morning, so that might explain the work just prior to the races. Once I see HAP looking happy, I’ll feel a lot better.
Maybe John will have jockey helmet cam on and we can join Mike Smith on the horse.
That would be awesome! We can only hope!
On a positive note, which I much needed, Market Analysis has had his first work for his new owners……I’m glad he’s at least made it back to the workout stage; hopefully he’ll make it back to the track.
Are we allowed to quote from other sources? I found this statement from Mike Smith, in the August 2nd Paulick Report, to be quite revealing: “Mike Smith, aboard for all five of Honor A.P.’s starts, was quick to point out one change in the routine leading up to the race. Due to COVID-19 protocols, jockeys are prohibited from access to the stable area in the mornings and cannot ride workouts. Trainer John Shirreffs tried unsuccessfully to get an exemption so Smith could be aboard for the colt’s final work a week before the race. ‘I haven’t been able to get on him in the mornings and I think that’s made a difference,’ Smith said. ‘He’s just been going along there not doing much in the mornings. I need to be on him. But that’s the way it is now; just the way it is.’
Shirreffs’ comment, provided by text: ‘Horses know the difference between an exercise rider and a jockey so they respond differently in their work. Jockeys also have the acute awareness of the horses’ effort. Trainers prepare horses by increasing workloads. The riders have to communicate to the horses in subtle situations of asking for a little more or saying that’s enough for today.
Why take the best we have and not allow them to help horses?'”
At first I really didn’t think not having the jockey on was a big deal, but John’s comments changed my mind. That said, the reason HAP didn’t do much wasn’t because Mike wasn’t on him, it was because John didn’t ask him for anything. I agree, Cynthia – I don’t really understand DM’s thinking.
Hard to believe that would make a difference in winning and losing when youre that much better than your three opponents. Most horses work with exercise riders and lot of trainers dont like to use jockeys because they are afraid the horse will go too fast.
I agree, Steve, though I don’t think John was using that as a reason for the loss. I think the issue was as Mike said (but he did actually kind of throw John under the bus in a nice way, lol) – that HAP wasn’t asked for much of anything. I don’t know if John did want him to go faster and HAP just wouldn’t….but, I can’t believe that mostly because, like you said, most horses work with exercise riders, and I definitely remember HAP doing so….and doing so very well whether he was asked for speed or not.
Watch for his works beginning next week. The tipoff for his readiness in the SA Derby was the bullet 5f work in 59 1/5 two weeks before the Derby. He didn’t have one like that for the San Felipe or Shared Belief.
In this instance, I think that it did make a difference, as HAP’s subsequent work with Mike aboard has proved.
Betsy, what happened to Creed?
David, from the DRF…
Fortunately it’s not that serious, but man I’m upset; I really love this horse and I believed he’d make an impact late in the year.
***”Creed, a promising late-developing 3-year-old who won his last two starts, will be sidelined for 60 days due to an ankle injury, trainer Shug McGaughey said Friday.
Creed was diagnosed with the injury following a workout Aug. 3 at Saratoga.
McGaughey said Creed has been turned out on a farm and could make it back later this year or early next year”***
Thanks Betsy. Sometimes these things can work out to be the best for the horse in the long run.
Happy Friday Steve: Just looked over your list. It sure looks so much different then 4 months ago.
If only Maxfield, Nadal, Charlatan, and a couple others hadn’t gotten hurt or sidelined for other reasons.
I wish I was but I am just not as excited about this years Derby. I am just a traditionalist at heart I suppose.
As for your list it looks pretty straight forward to me. I may have ranked Authentic higher, especially off of his Haskell win but its not that big of a deal. Can’t believe that the Travers was a prep for the Derby, and a prep for the Jim Dandy (ha ha), just kidding.
Once you get your sea legs under you and start writing your back drop stories again, would you consider doing a piece on a couple of my favorite fillies, Open Mind & Bold ‘n Determined.
Thanks much
Good to see you, Deacon. I can understand if youre not as excited. Its so late in the year, the Derby is just something you want to get over with already so we can start thinking Breeders’ Cup. Authentic is very fast and brilliant horse but I just dont seeing him wiring the Derby field. He needs the lead and doesnt have a mile and a quarter pedigree. I will be open to all suggestions for future columns. Thanks
Yep…Can you imagine TTL, Maxwell and Nadal coming down the stretch!
So glad to be spending part of my day reading your columns again. Been a fan of Tiz the Law since I saw him break his maiden on TV so he has always been my number one of well. Besides as an ex new Yorker we got to stick with our homeboys. I do have a question for you. You speak a lot about back class in a pedigree. My question is, sometimes how many generations back do you have to go to find it, and when is it far back enough not to matter any more? And let me thank you as well for explaining the Thoro-Graph figures. Sheila
Thank you, Sheila. I would consider back class the fourth generation, possibly fifth if it connected closely to th fourth generation. Third generation is that bridge between class and back class.
Thank you, Sheila. I would consider back class usually fourth generation, possibly fifth if it is connected directly to a class horse in the fourth generation. Third generation is the bridge between class and back class.
Lo leere con atencion, tus informes lo merecen..!!
Gracias, Fernando
Thank you Steve. Great to get a recap on each horse as we enter the last few weeks before the Derby and no one does that better than you! TTiz the Law is still my top pick followed by Honor AP. I almost feel it in my bones that Tiz the Law can go all the way this year and be the Triple Crown winner even if that is with an asterisk.
He sure looks unstoppable right now. We’ll just have to see if he can keep it going.
Thanks for explaining the Thoro-Graph figures.
I’m glad Leonard reminded me that this is a different audience than I had at Bloodhorse, so for you hardened veterans out there. I will try to explain things better for those familiar with betting terms and angles
Thanks Steve always love to read your insight, can’t wait for the Derby. Not to long now!
What a treat. I will read it a few more times. I tried to post a response yesterday but it wouldn’t go through. Love your new platform! .
It wasnt posted until today so no way you could post yesterday. Welcome!
I’m just worried TTL may regress a little bit. If I’m not mistaken that mile and 1/4 is the farthest they’ve run so far. But those eyes on TTL are intense! Different than the others. He looks at you like he’s going to eat your lunch!
That’s one thing we wont know because no horse has ever gone into the Derby off a mile and a quarter race, so we have no idea if it affect them in any way. I dont see it bothering this horse, but as I said you just dont know
Blake
He looked like a monster in the Travers the distance is not a factor – Post Position,Traffic,injury ,bad trip or maybe a sloppy track is all that can deter him ont 9/5 unless Art Collector unveils a MASTERPIECE !!!
Wet track….I didn’t even think of that. This years Derby ran in May would have been nice and sunny, but it’s 2020 so expect a monsoon in September!
Steve, so happy to have found you again. I, like you, am wondering if the normal Derby winners’ traits will hold up this year. I can’t help but look at the fact that most winners were on the board in their last prep. In your next post, could you please list the contenders, if any, that have Damascus in their bloodlines? I loved Damascus. He was the horse that brought me into the sport. Also, I will not be attending the Derby this year, for the first time since my daughter was a newborn in 1988. I had only missed once previously since my first Derby in 1974. Both times I missed, a filly won. Too bad chances are against a filly running this year. This year, my first grandchild, my first grandson, will be a newborn. I love Tiz The Law. I wish he would be tested at 1 1/2 miles. Any chance the Breeders Cup could include a race at that distance this year for 3 year olds? I think the fans would love it.
Hi there. As you know if you followed by Bloodhorse blog, It was Damascus who also got me interested in racing, and I am always looking out for his name in pedigrees. I will be focusing more on pedigree in the final Rankings. Sorry your Derby streak will be broken, but I wouldnt go anywhere near Churchill Downs this year. Youre smart to stay away. I doubt the BC will change their format and dilute the Classic. But the final leg of the so-called Triple Crown this year will present little challenge for Tiz if he wins the Derby.
Very good details with regard to all of these fabulous thoroughbreds. This will be a very interesting KY Derby during this very difficult time; however, I hope very many will be very happy to have a lovely break to watch this legendary race.
First, it’s very nice to have you back, we’ve all missed your take on the these horses and races. Re the Travers, I loved that race. The image on the turn going into the stretch of Manny Frnaco sitting totally chilly on Tiz while Luis Saez frantically tried to rouse some response from Uncle Chuck said it all, and will be an enduring one. The other image I keep seieing is Manny putting his whip away and taking Tiz in hand, pretty much said it all. Re Uncle Chuck, I’m pretty sure he was not at this best in this race. He was calling out in the paddock and getting hosed down a lot, so there were clearly concerns going in. Whether it was the ship, stepping up into this company after such a short career or having to stare Tiz in the eye, he was up against it and I hope he can be freshened and return to do good things.
Attachment Rate! It does my heart good to see him at No. 5. He is finally starting to fulfill his promise and I loved his race in the Ellis Derby. He was wide again early but ran much more professionally and put together a very creditable race. I hope he’s got things figured out now and we see him keep moving forward.
Thank you, Janis. Nice to have you aboard. What I found interesting is that Art Collector got a “1/4” on Thoro-Graph and Attachment Rate got a a “1/2.” which is pretty remarkable considering he was beaten more than 3 lengths
I was wondering about that too, but I’m thinking maybe they took the wide early trip into account. I’m not familiar enough with ThoroGraph to have a good handle on their reasoning, but they may have thought that he would have threatened quite a bit more with a better trip. Could it also have been to reflect the level of improvement?
I was impressed with Attachment Rate–he had a wide trip and kept going after being defeated—it’s September I would consider his recency—it’s uncharted waters for all of us!
One thing with this horse, he never quits, no matter what chalenges he gets. He keeps trying.
I thing it’s going to be a three horse race—and you have them ranked accordingly…..Honor A P didn’t win his prep, BUT….the race was run over a very deep surface–the weirdest surface of the Del Mar meet so far—don’t count Honor A P out of this—although the top two are formidable, especially #1…..
Hi Matthew, as long as he got enough out of the race. That is my only concern, not his talent or anything else
I am in the Tiz camp. He has the Derby gods connection 🙂
If the Derby gods dont mind repeat performance 🙂
I am really looking forward to the Derby! I was hoping one of the Japan Pharoah’s would come run but it is understandable why they won’t. I think it is going to be REALLY hard to beat Tiz The Law. He reminds me of the confidence I had in AP back in 2015. Watching he and NY Traffic go at it will be a lot of fun. But it is the Derby and there are other good horses in there, which you alluded to. Several of them appear to have the talent to have a BIG run.
Nice job, I am glad you are back. Tpd
Nice to see your rankings again, Steve!
I have to say, I think HAP is actually much better than Art Collector, as much as I love that colt. I still believe he is special, and that he’s a tremendous talent.
Bluntly, and I know you’re friendly with John, I put pretty much all the blame on him for the Shared Belief. If he has trained the colt as he trained him for the San Felipe, I believe HAP would have won easily, even at 85%. The problem is, he did NOT do that. John took it way too easy with HAP, with all his works being long and slow; I was shocked when he didn’t drill speed into HAP in his last work. You know how much I love this horse, and that I watch all of his works. Let me tell you that what I feared would happen in the SB DID. You know how competitive HAP is, how he loves to run, how in his gallops and works he’s always hard to pull up. Well, I didn’t like his last pre-SB works. He struggled with his 2 year old workmates in one work, in that he didn’t pull away from them, and then he struggled badly to outwork – barely- a mediocre older maiden. In both case, HAP didn’t fight to keep running, as he usually does. He was dull, and so he ran dull and erratically in the SB. John undertrained him badly.
IMO, John needs to consistently give HAP stiff workouts in between the slower ones in order to keep the colt happy and his head in the game. If not, he risks losing his colt mentally. I love him, and he’s a brilliant horseman, but I think he made a bad error in judgment that might very well have cost HAP a real chance at winning the Derby. I think he can win, but I don’t think he got anything out of the race, so I have my doubts.
As to Max, I do agree with your evaluation…except I think in many ways it’s the same issue as with HAP. Linda didn’t ask this colt for anything in his breezes ..she used the reasoning that it was due to the oppressive heat. I agree with that, except…it’s ridiculous that she didn’t ship him to the Spa earlier, where I assume it was cooler than on Long Island. It’s no surprise that Max didn’t show as much real kick as he did in the Belmont – he had dullness trained into him.
If George Hall was so hell bent on getting Max familiar with CD, why didn’t he insist that Linda run him in the Matt Winn? He did this before the Belmont, dumping Dylan Davis for Joel Rosario and costing Davis much business. Linda did a phenomenal job with Max, who was difficult to train die to his quirkinesses. He’s a talented, good colt, and she allowed him to blossom.
I’m guessing that Linda didn’t want to run Max in the Derby as the colt came out of the Travers tired. George got Derby fever, sigh, so voila. I’m sure Steve will do a good job with him, and if he doesn’t think Max is in good enough shape to run in the Derby, will say so. I also imagine he will work him harder than Linda did before the Travers. IF Max IS truly fine, then he deserves a crack in KY, and he’ll run well.
Boy, I wish there was an edit post or a way to stay logged in so we don’t have to keep typing our name and e-mail…
I am surprised at Attachment Rate being ranked so high based on one performance; I do tend to think he’s been overrated by many throughout the spring.
Oh and I have to say that, considering HAP’s trip in the SB. that the TG figure is too low. I also forgot to mention in my other post that he got slammed by Cezanne, and in order not to lose position in the race, Mike had to rush HAP up. I have no issue with him being aggressive – in that tiny field, he had to. I also believe HAP is more nimble than people think…I hate how he’s been competeLy forgotten and disregarded.
Betsy, I’m just grateful we don’t have to hear about Uncle Chuck constantly for awhile.
Replace him with Art Collector, lol.
I’m sorry, I really love AC and I LOVE Bernardini……….I hate to make that comment.
Agree
Hi Betsy, HAP may be better than Art Collector, but after the Shared Belief and the Ellis Derby thre was no way I could rank HAP ahead of him. I never liked the idea of running him in the Shared Belief, but John doesnt like shipping, and I think if he had given him a stiff seven-furlong or mile work, the result might have been different. What must be frustrating is knowing that HAP is lengths better than Thousand Words. As I mentioned, if John really drills him and puts some bottom in him in his works and toughens him up he still has a chance to run big in the Derby. As for Max, Linda still is the one who devloped him and got two grade 1 placings out of him. If he came out of Travers tired there is some concern, but owners want to be in the derby and dont want to hear that.
I’m fine with your rankings, Steve…I was just venting because I’m still bothered by the SB. I’m bothered because HAP should have won, and John didn’t put him in a position to do that. I definitely believe the result would have been different…and I’d feel differently about his chances in the Derby.
About shipping….while you know I always hated the SB as a prep, I ultimately came to believe that it was preferable to shipping cross country 3 times in a month, as he’d have to do if he had run in the Travers. If HAP had been trained appropriately for the SB, I think he probably could have overcome the issue of foundation Smith riding past the wire…and subsequent works. I’m not sure if Mike did ride past the wire, but in any case, as the colt ran only in spots, the race was useless.
FYI, John worked HAP 3 furlongs only one week after the race. I saw the same dullness that I had before, HAP not fighting his rider (the assistant trainer, who I don’t think HAP cares for as an exercise rider) after the work. Livewire, whom I’m sure you remember from BH, pointed out that HAP was foamy and sweaty well before the end of the work, which meant that he had galloped at least once, maybe more, around the track before the work.
Of course – I think Linda got shafted. A part of me would love for Asmussen to tell Hall that Max shouldn’t run, but I think if he’s healthy that he deserves his shot…
One thing, Betsy, on this site please no name calling, including owners. That had to be deleted.
Sorry Steve, I’ll remember that!!!
“…Bluntly, and I know you’re friendly with John, I put pretty much all the blame on him for the Shared Belief….:”
Give it a rest. You are NOT a HAP fan – you are a shill here to slam John Shirreffs. I wish Haskin would ban you
Except that he’s a shill as well. smh
Blue JanBer • 19 hours ago
Holy hell …. he is still over there allowing ” Betsy” to slam John Shirreffs … shame on him! I take back the “poor man” comment …
bETSEY……DON’T WORRY……saying the horse is under trained is ridiculous……all of these horses are fit…..he is coming into the race just fine…..
Actually it’s not ridiculous…..it’s very clear that HAP was under trained.
I don’t love this blog format………..now the trolls are back and you can’t block or ignore them.
Steve, first let me say how pleased I am that you have found a new host at this site. It’s a match of historical aptness. I was too moved by your inaugural post to formulate a worthy reply, and still am.
While naming people “shill” is not so ugly a name-calling as others that may occur, I would like to request that those who call you or other commenters by that name, or other names denoting a contemptible character, be likewise subjected to censorship. The vitriol slung about in the names of blue and Hombre, below, aimed at you and Betsy, is no less name-calling for not referring to an owner.
What do you think of Shirl’s Speight, now pointing to the Derby as per trainer Roger Attfield and owner Charlie Fipke? I think he deserves a mention and even a ranking next week.. thanks!
He looks to be a total freak, watching his two races, and going by his other worldly :57 workout. But two lifetime starts into the Derby, never having run on dirt? I would rather see him in the BC Mile. But Charles Fipke has been known to do odd things. If he is still in the Derby picture in two weeks he will of course be mentioned. But I hope Fipke facs reality and doesnt do anything to ruin this horse. BTW, he is inbred to Secretariat and three times to Bold Ruler.
I agree 100% with your assessment, Steve. He looks to be such an extraordinary horse. A potential mega-star in the Mile!
Roger Attfield would prefer not to run in the Derby, but Fipke has the final say. He worked on dirt behind horses yesterday up at Woodbine. Roger does not go for fast works, but the colt smoked them in .57 flat in a hand ride! Will be in the Pat Day Mile on the undercard if he doesn’t get in the Derby per Attfield.
Agree Steve- I think a mile on turf would be best for him moving forward, and hope that his owner’s desire for glory does not ruin this very special horse. Trainer wants to keep bringing him along slowly on turf, but is being overruled by owner. So glad you are back
I like the inbred to Secretariat comment. It’s the reason I liked Lone Sailor so much back in 2018, 4 times to Big Red.
Feels like home, again, Steve! Thank you and cannot wait two weeks for your last rankings for the Derby! Stay well!
Thanks, Kimberly. wish the Derby was coming up sooner. We just need to get both these horses to the big show
I’m thinking this could be one of the better Derby’s. As you pointed out, most are bigger, stronger,and mentally better. Tiz the Law has my vote.Mostly because of his maternal grandsire. Thanks for pointing out the Tiznow connections. As always love your Derby picks. Looking forward to next week and Art Collector’s story. Thanks.
Two months ago I was pretty ho-hum about the Derby. As the summer has progressed my excitement has too. Tiz The Law is REALLY impressive. I hope he romps through the Derby, Preakness, and Breeders Cup…. AND that we get to see him next year.
That would be xome coup. American Pharoah came close, but if Tiz wins the Derby, the Preakness, unlike the mile and a half Belmont, will offer little challenges to Tiz to sweep this year’s version of the Triple Cown.
…unless Gamine wins the Oaks, and tries him in the Preakness….the Oaks might end up very strong….Im not big on putting a filly against colts but they have said theres a chance for the Preakness.
Love Art Collector to upset Tiz the LAW
Hey, Mark! Long time no see! Hope all is well …. miss you elsewhere …
I don’t think he remembers us under this name when he used to post on HRN. We had thew old ones back then like Nora Charles.jinxx045 or Hans Gruber. I can’t really remember which one. We have so many! 😉
Very Nice