Secretariat

Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 4

Will we see a rising star in the Risen Star on Saturday? With the No. 1 spot up for grabs this week and so many horses who are ranked in the top 15 running in the Risen Star, something has to give, and we expect a whole new look Derby Rankings next week when it posts Tuesday. ~ Steve Haskin

Derby Rankings: February 12, 2024 – Week 4

By Steve Haskin

1—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)

Looking at this seemingly enigmatic horse in simple terms, at this point in his brief up and down career, based on what we have seen he has a 50% chance of becoming a superstar and a 50% chance of becoming a 3-year-old bust. It will be his next start that will go a long way in determining which half will define his career. What hasn’t been discussed as much as one would think is the mind-boggling pace of the Holy Bull and if that had any relevance in the outcome. There are so many questions that need answering. How does a horse whose average fractions of :22 3/5, :45 4/5, and 1:10 in his two mammoth victories can go :25, :50 2/5, and 1:14 1/5 over a track that had been playing fast all day. And to compound that, not be able to put away a horse with two career starts, one of them against Florida-breds. Off such lethargic fractions how and why did they come home so slowly? Why didn’t a horse as fast as Fierceness have a six-length lead down the backstretch even by default? Even if he did open up by six lengths he still would have been going 11 lengths slower than he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If there wasn’t a timer malfunction it just doesn’t make sense. With so many baffling aspects to this race, and this horse, it makes no sense to put someone new at No. 1 right now just to fill the spot when a legitimate No. 1 likely will surface in Saturday’s loaded Risen Star Stakes. One thing we know for certain is that he has run two fluke races. The question is, were they his wins or his losses?

 

2—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)

I believe he may have the most upside of any of the Derby hopefuls, and looks to have all the tools you look for in a classic horse. I moved him up to No. 2 because he now will be starting before Locked, and if he can run a huge race against what promises to be the toughest field of the year in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes it would put him in a position to be ranked No. 1. He doesn’t need to win, especially in this strong a field, but I do want to see that explosive turn of foot we saw last year and if he has developed into a more professional 3-year-old after displaying moments of greenness last year. I still believe he would have won the Remsen if he had stayed out in the middle of the track and not angled all the way in to engage Dornoch. Whether it was his doing or his jockey’s I can’t say for sure, but it shouldn’t have happened. As a point of reference from that race, he did finish almost five lengths ahead of third-place finisher Drum Roll Please, who came back to win the Jerome Stakes by open lengths. If anyone believes he just may have gotten a little tired at the end of the Remsen, it should be noted that the bottom of his dam’s pedigree is loaded with speed and sprinters. Perhaps that’s where he gets his turn of foot. Fair Grounds should answer any questions about stamina.

  

3—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)

Like Sierra Leone, an impressive victory in the Risen Star would give him a big shot at being No. 1 next week, as this is by far the strongest and deepest field of the year. Beckman has him sharp for the race, and if he can turn in that explosive move we saw in his maiden and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes victories it is going to take a huge effort to beat him. For those who are not familiar with Beckman, he came up under Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown and worked with such top-class horses as Uncle Mo, Quality Road, Stay Thirsty, Super Saver, Princess of Sylmar, and his favorite Eskedereya for Pletcher, and Good Magic, Bricks and Mortar, Rushing Fall, Goodnight Olive, Sister Charlie, and his favorite Cloud Computing for Brown. So he surely knows a good horse when he sees one and knows the pressure of the Triple Crown working with a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner and a Kentucky Derby and Belmont runner-up, Remember, Honor Marie is a May 4th foal and is bigger and stronger than he was last year, so who knows how much he has improved over the winter. Like with Sierra Leone, he doesn’t have to win to move forward on the Derby trail, just show us that closing kick we saw last year, especially if a classy speed horse like Track Phantom gets loose on an uncontested lead.

  

4—Locked (Todd Pletcher, Gun Runner – Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon)

I still think very highly of this colt and consider him a classic horse with a world of ability. I surely have no concerns with him going the Fountain of Youth – Florida Derby route if that was the original plan, or even the Rebel – Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass route. The only concern right now is that Pletcher has had him go toe-to-toe with Fierceness in a work and had him razor sharp for the Sam F. Davis Stakes with a series of five-furlong works. Now he needs to have him sharp again in four weeks, or three if he goes to the Rebel, where he could run into some Baffert hotshot looking to disrupt the Derby trail. But he’s not to going to rush him back in the morning coming off an illness. So that is enough to throw off a schedule. It could very well all work out and he will remain a top five contender and go into the Kentucky Derby as one of the favorites. But until we see how he adapts to the dramatic change in his schedule we have to keep making room near the top for horses who prove worthy now. If you liked him before, but felt his odds were too short to bet in the Future Wager, the next one is when you want to bet on him if you want to think positive, as he should be higher odds due to the setback. Bottom line is that he has natural speed, class, and a good turn of foot and closing kick, all thanks to a strong combination of stamina on top and a number of world-class European and U.S. milers on the bottom. It’s all about how he bounces back and catches up to his original schedule.

 

5—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)

It didn’t take him long to get razor sharp with a five-furlong work in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 45 works at the distance, as he begins to get serious for his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stake, where he could very well face potential point snatcher Muth. Like Fierceness he has looked sensational in some races and just ordinary in others. Oddly enough, in his visually dull Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fourth-place finish he paired his career-high 93 Beyer figure and his career-high 2 Thor-Graph number, which gives him the fastest Thoro-Graph pairing of any 3-year-old on the Derby trail. I loved his last work and am still enamored with the bottom part of his pedigree, which has a number of European class and stamina influences. But most of all I still remember how powerful and flawless he looked coming down the stretch in the Champagne, even if it was in the slop, and how quickly he opened a five-length lead on the turn in his maiden romp. With his stablemate Catching Freedom having won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Cox could have sent him back for the Rebel Stakes, but that race seems like the right spot in which to bring Timberlake back, and Cox wants to stretch Catching Freedom out to 1 1/8 miles.

6—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown) 

He continues to move forward in his training as he prepares for his long-awaited 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. What I find remarkable about this colt’s family is that only three horses in the last 108 years, and only four total, have won the Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts, and of the three, one is Dornoch’s full-brother Mage and the other is Dornoch’s broodmare sire Big Brown. The other is Triple Crown winner Justify, and the runner-up to Justify in the Derby was Dornoch’s sire Good Magic, who was the first maiden to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and in only his third career start. So this has to be the most successful inexperienced family in history, with Dornoch’s sire, brother, and grandsire all in the record books for their success with so few starts. And here we have Dornoch breaking away from family tradition with four starts already, and three of them at one mile, 1 1/16 miles, and 1 1/8 miles, and on fast, sloppy, and muddy tracks. So he is a seasoned veteran compared to his relatives. Now we just have to see if his mind has caught up with his experience and success because of the greenness he’s shown in some of his races. If we see a horse in the Fountain of Youth who changes leads on cue, and can keep a straight course with no ducking in and bouncing off the rail we could have a potential Derby favorite who has shown he can blow you away and leave you up the track or he can duke it out with you to the wire. And he showed in the Remsen that you can never count him out even when he looks hopelessly beaten.

7—Hall of Fame (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Flag Day, by Giant’s Causeway)

As mentioned already, Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes is by far the toughest race of the year. Yet Steve Asmussen, who has one of the leading contenders and a back-to-back stakes winner in Track Phantom, has decided to run a maiden winner whose running style could at some point compromise Track Phantom and possibly set it up for any one of the number of top-class closers in the field. The reason is simple. That maiden winner, ambitiously named Hall of Fame, is owned by Coolmore, is inbred 2 x 3 to their first big international star Giant’s Causeway, and cost $1.4 million as a yearling, and it was Asmussen who had told the Coolmore team when they asked him who he liked at the Saratoga yearling sale that this colt was his pick of the sale. David Scanlon, who broke him, said he was a fantastic mover and always did everything so easily. When Asmussen went to visit him in Ocala he called Coolmore racing manager Robyn Murray as soon as he got back in his car and said the colt had developed into everything he had hoped and dreamed he would be since the sale. He took his time with him and let him develop, and after that monster maiden score the whole team is looking forward to seeing how he handles this caliber of competition going 1 1/8 miles. What is amazing this year is that a victory on Saturday, coming off Lasix, could very well make him the Kentucky Derby favorite.

  

8—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)

If his Southwest romp was on a fast track he surely would be way up there on everyone’s rankings. I believe his performance was too electrifying and his closing fractions too fast to attribute it to a sloppy track. Some may point out a rail bias that day helped a great deal, but Thoro-Graph, which relies heavily on ground loss to boost a rating and a ground saving trip to detract from it, still gave him a monster figure of “1/4,” or to make it easier a zero-plus. No one this year has come close to that. Other skeptics can point out that Goldencents was a miler who does not sire classic horses, But milers do sire Derby winners, and Mystik Dan’s broodmare sire is a Travers winner and his two maternal great-grandsires, Tiznow and Siphon, have combined to win two Breeders’ Cup Classics, two Santa Anita Handicaps, a Hollywood Gold Cup, and a Super Derby – all Grade 1 mile and a quarter races. In addition, his tail-female family traces to Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony and Belmont Stakes winner Conquistador Cielo. Sure we want to see how he does on a fast track, but for now it’s hard to find any flaws in him.

9—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)

The more I think about it the more I can see him being the horse to beat in the Risen Star. When you break the race down, Sierra Leone and Honor Marie, with their running style, could need this race and are mainly looking for a big first step toward the Louisiana Derby or Blue Grass Stakes and Kentucky Derby. Track Phantom has been a confirmed frontrunner, but his stablemate Hall of Fame has faster numbers, but lacks experience and has never been tested for class. Catching Freedom, however, has the perfect running style, sitting in midpack and should get first run at the leaders. Yes, his speed figures have been nothing to rave about, but two horses he handled easily in the supposedly slow Smarty Jones Stakes, Mystik Dan and Just Steel, came out of that race to run 1,2 in the Southwest Stakes, with Mystik Dan running a jaw-dropping race and getting sensational speed figures. And it must be noted that Catching Freedom has yet to have a clean trip, with troubled starts, being bottled up in traffic down on the rail, and having several nightmare stretch runs, including the Smarty Jones, which he won in spite of that and drawing off at the wire. Part of that was due to greenness, but if he has matured and gets a clean trip with a clear outside run he could be very tough to beat on Saturday and wind up a huge overlay. As for him being a major Derby contender, I am still ranking several horses ahead of him until I see what he can do against this field. But if he runs as well as I think he will then the sky’s the limit.

  

10—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)

I don’t want it to sound like Track Phantom, despite his two stakes victories, is believed to be inferior to Hall of Fame. But when you have two strong Kentucky Derby horses who both like Fair Grounds you want to find out where both fit on the Derby trail and who will be your big horse in the Louisiana Derby. Asmussen has never been afraid of competition and you can only find out what you have by facing the best. He just happens to have two of the best, and this is where they belong. I have said all along that Track Phantom, unlike Hall of Fame who jumped from a 12 ½ Thoro-Graph number to a 5, needs to make a significant move forward after running a 7, a 5, and then a 6 in his last three races and a career-high 90 Beyer in the LeComte. One thing in his favor is that he likes to run on the lead and doesn’t mind fighting it out early, and most of main foes are confirmed closers, with the exception of Hall of Fame, who could be tracking him closely. If they can avoid eyeballing each other too early they could slow the pace down and make it more difficult for the big closers, who will be making their first start of the year. With Track Phantom breaking from post 11 he is going to have to bust out of there and get to the lead, where he has proven to be tough to catch. We have knocked the spectacular maiden winner Nash for his two subsequent defeats to Track Phantom at odds of 1-2 and even-money. But who knows, maybe Track Phantom is simply a better horse than his speed figures might indicate.

11—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)

With so many top horses running in the Risen Star, look for him to move up again next week. But because of Oaklawn Park having to move the Southwest Stakes up a week due to the weather he now most likely will pass the Rebel Stakes and go straight for the Arkansas Derby, which is a long way off. That means his rankings likely will be fluctuating quite a bit. I can’t recall a horse making such a steady improvement in his speed figures. If he was to continue that improvement with two more starts it would have him peaking on Derby Day with a winnable number. He still could if he takes bigger jumps forward in the Arkansas Derby and then the Kentucky Derby, something his connections are expecting him to do considering the way he closed through very fast final fractions in the Southwest and how strong he galloped out. He likely would have been second had he stayed on the speed-biased rail. And because his training was sporadic due to the bad weather, he will be much sharper and fitter going into the Arkansas Derby. To give you an idea how consistent his improvement has been since he debuted, his Thoro-Graph numbers have gone from a 20 to 13 to 11 ¼ to 9 ¾ to 6 ½ to 4 ¾ and his Beyers have followed a similar pattern. Now he has to pick that up a bit in the Arkansas Derby to put him in position to fire big on the first Saturday in May. Has any horse made a more monumental leap than his sire did in the Travers, going from a Thoro-Graph number of 4 to a negative 4 ¾?

 

12—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)

I honestly have no idea how good his race was in the Holy Bull. Did he win it or did Fierceness lose it. As I mentioned earlier, those absurd fractions were so slow, along with the perplexing slow closing fractions, it makes this race impossible to compute in your brain. I can see throwing out Fierceness’s race because it was such a dramatic plunge from his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile performance, But we don’t quite know who Hades is yet and you cannot ignore the fact that he is unbeaten and looked the champ in the eye and put him away, regardless of what version of the champ that was. His Thoro-Graph pattern of 13 ro 7 ¼ to 6 is encouraging, but needs to keep improving, Also, with Hades being a gelding it’s always good to know why he was gelded. When his breeder, Ocala Stud, sold him as a 2-year-old he was still a colt and according to Ocala Stud’s David O’Farrell, he was a “big, straightforward colt who never had a bad day growing up.” They knew he could run when he breezed for the sale in :21 1/5, :32 2/5, out in :46 flat. Orseno loved him at the sale, but when he started training him he was surprised to see how studdish he was. When they turned him out in Ocala and there was no improvement he decided if he was to be the kind of racehorse he thought he’d be it was best if they gelded him. And look what he has now.

13—Real Men Violin (Kenny McPeek, Mendelssohn – Meg Fitz, by Tapit)

Yes, the list of Risen Star starters continues, and he, like Sierra Leone and Honor Marie, does not have to win this race, not having run since his good second-place finish to Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Everyone from that race needs to pick up his speed ratings, especially him with his 7 Thoro-Graph number. But that was an improvement from the 9 and 14 in his previous two starts, so the pattern at least is a good one. He has never been out of the money in six starts, so you have to admire and respect his consistency, especially competing on fast, sloppy, and muddy tracks and on grass.  McPeek is hot right now, with his colts and fillies, and nothing this horse does can ever surprise me because he has seen so much and always runs his race. He’s been sharp in his works ad must be taken seriously.

14—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)

His stablemate Change of Command didn’t fare very well in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and dropped right out of the race as the favorite. But the hopes are still very high for this colt even though his last race seems ages ago. McGaughey is still looking at a 1 1/8-mile allowance race in the book for February 29, but the chances of that race filling appear to be pretty slim. If it goes it would set him up nicely for the Florida Derby, which would be his only shot at getting enough points for the Kentucky Derby. If it doesn’t fill he will run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes two days later. He did work five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 in company on Sunday, which is a pretty sharp work for Payson Park. Anyone who knows McGaughey is well aware he will not push a horse to make the Derby. This is a big massive colt who stands 17 hands high and weighs over 1,300 pounds, so you have to let him progress at his own rate. But he has already shown he has several gears and can overcome all kinds of problems in a race. If the Derby doesn’t work out you surely will hear from him later on.

15—Moonlight (Todd Pletcher, Audible – Sundown, by Tapit)

It would seem counter productive to rank so many horses in the top 15 who are running in the same race this weekend, but this year’s Derby trail is unlike any we have seen, with the No. 1 spot open for whoever wants to grab it. And any one of four horses can grab it with a victory, and there are a couple of others who can catapult into the top five. And this is one of them. I am not even basing this on his two stakes appearances, which were run on an off track. His performances were OK, but I’m not sure he was at his best over the surface. Yet he still ran well enough to finish second to Liberal Arts in the Street Sense Stakes and finished a non-threatening fourth in the Remsen against an outstanding field. His career debut was on the grass and he ran a big race, so you would think he’d handle the mud just fine. The reason I am ranking him is because of his one race on a fast track, even though it was an off-the-turf maiden race. Pletcher had already scratched him from an off-the-turf race and seemed to have little choice but to run him this time. As it turned out, everything I saw from this horse I loved. With blinkers added following a tough defeat in his debut, Moonlight moved so well over the dirt, stalking the leader, and his mechanics were flawless. What I loved the most was how perfectly he carries his legs under him and how he never even flinched when hit several times and did not deviate an inch off his path. He drew off with every stride and was being geared down late. But he still came home his final quarter in :24 3/5 and returned bouncing and prancing like a fresh horse. I don’t know if he’s ready for this task, but I feel there is something there that is still untapped. The alternative is to run in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race the same day, for which he was also entered.

 

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Another horse coming off Lasix in the Risen Star is the Bill Mott-trained RESILIENCE, who broke his maiden by 4 ¼ lengths last time out. He has already finished ahead of Track Phantom and is on the improve, but this is a tough spot and he will have to break from the 10 post. Todd Pletcher also is moving his lightly raced CARDINALE way up in class after getting beat a neck by Change of Command in a hard-fought allowance race. He also comes off Lasix, gets Flavien Prat, and drew post 9, so look for him to try to get the jump on Track Phantom from post 11 and perhaps attempt to set it up for Moonlight.

It’s too early to form any conclusions about the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the victorious NO MORE TIME. In a race that looked to have a number of frontrunners he took the track as the lukewarm 3-1 favorite and proceeded to put the 4-1 second choice CHANGE OF COMMAND and several other challengers away and opening a clear lead in the stretch, then held off the late charge of AGATE ROAD to win by 1 ¼ lengths. The 5 ¼-length gap to third in an 11-horse field suggests this was a solid performance, and that this colt is legitimate enough to be taken seriously in the Tampa Bay Derby. Not bad for an Iowa-bred $40,000 yearling purchase. Change of Command, who stopped to a walk, will be brought home for evaluation before any plans are made.

Normally, horses who run in the six-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, a race that has morphed from the old Swift Stakes, is considered purely a sprinter and ignored on the Derby trail. This year I have a dilemma with the winner BERGEN, who worked a blistering half in :47 2/5 over the Belmont training track. Based on what I have seen in his races, it would be wise not to label him a sprinter and realize that another impressive performance in the one-mile Gotham on March 2 could very well put him in the Wood Memorial. His connections are a bit concerned that he is built like a sprinter, more compact and muscular. But for now they are going to treat him like a Derby horse until he shows them otherwise. His sire Liam’s Map, was a brilliant mile to mile and an eighth horse and his female family is loaded with stamina, with his only inbreeding 3 x 4 to Unbridled, his third dam being by Preakness winner and Belmont third-place finisher Pine Bluff, and his fourth dam being by Alydar, out of a Hoist the Flag mare.

He actually has already run going a flat mile at Churchill Downs off an impressive six-furlong maiden score, rallying strongly from 10th to finish second, while finishing ahead of Mystik Dan. And he ran like a natural distance horse, who finished strongly, even having to alter course when the winner came out into his path. He looks to be a very professional horse with no flaws, who had no trouble cutting back to six furlongs in the Winkfield and rally once again to win going away and running through the wire as if he were just getting going. Whether going six furlongs or one mile he runs the same race and closes relentlessly. We’ll wait until the Gotham before deciding whether to rank him in the top 15. Of course you want to see a horse with a stayer’s build, but another big effort going a mile and you have to at least start to give him the benefit of the doubt.

It was close which Chad Brown horse, DOMESTIC PRODUCT or TUSCAN GOLD, to put at No. 15, so I decided to wait a week and see what develops at Fair Grounds. The former has the stakes experience, and I liked the way he was striding out at the end of the Holy Bull Stakes, even though if all those bizarre fractions are correct he probably should have caught Hades. But everyone came home slow when they shouldn’t have and so I can only go by the visual aspect of the race. I still would like to know if those fractional times were looked into and are correct, because it never at any point looked like they were going that slow. So for now let’s ignore his absurd 69 Beyer figure and even his 7 Thoro-Graph number and consider him a horse who is heading in the right direction and should bounce back with a good effort next time, not only visually but time-wise. Tuscan Gold looks to be the more brilliant of two and may have a higher ceiling and more room for improvement, but he still has to be tested for class. Both, however, look like very nice colts.

Speaking of Tuscan, Todd Pletcher has a promising colt in TUSCAN SKY, who worked a sharp half in :48 4/5 at Palm Beach Downs for a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Fair Grounds Saturday.

For those who follow the Thoro-Graph numbers, UNCLE HEAVY ran a strong 4 ½ in the Withers after having run a 5 twice, so he looks to be a far better horse than many people might think. It is also interesting to note that allowance winner REAL MACHO, who looked good running down the heavily favored BORN NOBLE in an allowance race, went from Thoro-Graph numbers of 17, 12 ¼, ad 13 to a 5 ¾, so he made enormous strides and could be taking after his sire Mucho Macho Man. If he doesn’t bounce off this race and pairs up or takes another move forward, we could have a horse to watch.

Phil D’Amato, having found a rare Baffert-free race, will try to take advantage of it by running STRONGOLD in Sunday’s Sunland Derby and sharpening him up with a five-furlong work in 1:00 3/5. His main competition could come from the Steve Asmussen shipper INFORMED PATRIOT, third in the Smarty Jones Stakes, as well as the Riley Allison Derby winner LUCKY JEREMY, winner of two straight.

Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.


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282 Responses to “Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 4”

  1. Lynda King says:

    The Saudi World Cup should be an interesting and exciting race.

    Hard for me to narrow down my favorites list:
    Derma Sotagake, Ushba Tesero, Senor Buscador and Saudi Crown (SC is one gorgeous horse).

    Pretty elite group of horses and any one of them could win in my opinion.

    No Europeans this year. Luxembourg will racing on turf. I think he was double entered.

    Safe races for all!

    • arlingtonfan says:

      I’m excited to see Derma run again. I agree with you about Saudi Crown.

    • Nelson Maan says:

      The Saudi Cup field looks to produce a very hot pace that would benefit Senor Buscador, Derma Sotogake and White Abarrio… Ushba Tesoro really likes that track as well…

      I am particularly interested in Forever Young in the Saudi Derby… my impression is that he is better than Derma Sotogake was by this time last year.

  2. 1JoeP says:

    The Rebel came up very weak IMO. Timberlake even off of the layoff will be 4-5. He isn’t that good if he can’t beat this field. The SW in my opinion with Liberal Arts and Mystic Dan was a stronger race .

    • Zanytactics says:

      Nothing spectacular about Timberlake. Imo, he might be short with only 5 published works since his last in the BCJ on 11/03/23

      Did not beat much in the G1 Champagne, was close to the leaders tuning for home in the BCJ then faded to 4th. Not worth the short odds.

  3. arlingtonfan says:

    Since the Saudi Cup was referenced below, I’m wondering–does anyone know its post time, let’s say for Eastern Standard Time, since that’s the time zone usually given? I couldn’t find anything online yesterday.