Kentucky Derby Recap
The 150th Kentucky Derby is in the books leaving a myriad of emotions. But in the end it was about the remarkable achievement of trainer Kenny McPeek, who saddled the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. ~ Steve Haskin
Twin McPeeks has Dramatic Finale
By Steve Haskin
In the past three years we have focused our recaps on the human interest stories behind the victories of Mage, Rich Strike, and Medina Spirit. But in 2024 it was all about the race, the horses, and the remarkable achievement of one trainer, all set against the backdrop of the 150th Kentucky Derby.
What will be remembered in years to come is the rare Kentucky Oaks-Derby double pulled off by the amiable and accessible Kenny McPeek, as well as the historic three-horse photo, with Mystic Dan, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young finishing noses apart at the wire and the picture-perfect rides given both Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks and 18-1 Mystik Dan in the Derby by jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who is emerging as one of the new elite riders in the country, especially with his daredevil rail trips aboard Mystik Dan.
When people look back at the 2024 Kentucky Derby they naturally will think of the excitement of witnessing the closest three-horse finish in the history of the race. The only finishes close to it were the two heads separating the first three finishers in 1947 and the nose and half-length that separated the first three finishers in 1902, but that last one was in a four-horse field when the Kentucky Derby was pretty much just another of the major races of the day.
This epic finish, however, went a lot further than that. Sure Mystik Dan’s victory will stand the test of time, especially with all the elements surrounding it, but for now we still have the images of the drama that unfolded down the stretch with Forever Young trying to escape the clutches of Sierra Leone, who was intent on playing bumper cars with the Japanese invader every step of the way. It was an unfortunate conclusion to Forever Young’s remarkable 14,000-mile journey that covered four countries, three continents, and three Derbys, ending with what looked more like a sumo wrestling match with Sierra Leone, who bumped, shoved, and basically mauled Forever Young, who had already had his share of misfortune in the race with a bad start, suffering a laceration, and having to go five-wide into the far turn. He tried to give back as much as he got, but he was pretty much overwhelmed by the bigger and stronger Sierra Leone, who has had a habit of lugging in through most of his career.
Both still closed relentlessly, seemingly attached at the hip, to be beaten inches, and you had to wonder what the outcome would have been had Sierra Leone been able to keep a straight course. But that incident will be long forgotten and it is Mystik Dan’s name that will shine forever in the history books.
But let’s not portray Sierra Leone as some kind of villain. With his huge, but awkward stride and habit of paddling his left leg, he, for whatever reason, can’t help lugging in, but in the past has only done it when there is open space to his left. This big bulldozer of a horse, who cost $2.3 million at the Saratoga yearling sale, has been able to steamroll his opponents. In his five starts he has passed, or I should say blown by, 51 of his opponents, roaring by them out in the middle of the track. But there was one he failed to pass by about two inches on Saturday, the biggest day of them all.
In the end, despite all that transpired, this was about three courageous horses who gave their heart in a furious battle to the wire. Knowing what powerful closers Sierra Leone and Forever Young are and how relentless and determined they are in the final furlong it seemed almost certain they would get the measure of Mystik Dan right before the wire. But no one could know the extent of the shoving match that was going on and the fight in Mystik Dan, who, despite getting a bit tired, was able to find just enough to get him to the wire by a diminishing nose over Sierra Leone, who was a nose in front of a game battle-worn Forever Young. Hernandez said he didn’t see them until they both gave that big late surge in the final few jumps.
Even as they bore down on Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone kept coming in on Forever Young and delivering a series of body blows. Nearing the wire Tyler Gaffalione, perhaps bracing himself for another collision that could cost him the race, felt compelled to reach out with his left arm, pushing against Forever Young trying to create some separation between the two, while pulling hard on the right rein. In the end it all resulted in the most exciting and exhilarating Derby finish in memory.
People unfortunately will also remember the sudden retreat at the head of the stretch by 2-year-old champ and budding superstar Fierceness, who had overcome one of his foibles by breaking cleanly and getting a perfect position sitting right outside the two leaders, only to succumb to his second apparent shortcoming, his courage under fire and needing to have everything go his way. What frustrated most people, especially those who had kept their faith in him and watched in shock and horror as he plummeted to 15th, beaten almost 25 lengths, was the fact that he will now, barring some remarkable transformation, forever be an enigma with a “Bet at your own risk” warning attached to him. There is a line in the movie A Bronx Tale that goes, “The saddest thing in life is wasted talent.” Fierceness’s talent is apparent and hasn’t been totally wasted with a Breeders’ Cup and Florida Derby victory, but in some ways seeing only occasional glimmers of that talent and not knowing why is equally frustrating, especially when he draws you in with a spectacular workout. Will anyone be trusting enough to rave about a great work or a great performance ever again? That is the saddest thing.
Only the Derby gremlins can tell you why the highly touted Just a Touch, who was bumped on several occasions, finished dead-last, beaten 54 lengths. Only they can tell you why trainer Whit Beckman, recently released after five days in the hospital, had to endure watching his horse Honor Marie, who was blossoming at Churchill Downs and sitting on a huge race, encounter the trip from hell, getting slammed into from both sides at the break, with his rider losing a iron and having to slow down to a crawl to get it back in. Then to compound that, while trying to get back into the race, he got taken out going into the first turn, dropping back to last. Somehow he managed to get through traffic to close from 20th to finish eighth and already has his sights set on the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.
But finally, with all the unfortunate events behind us we can now get to the winner Mystik Dan. Here is a horse that I can say for certainty listening to all the professional handicappers was a complete toss. Why I have no idea. But before we get into his journey to the Derby, some interesting points about his pedigree. He is a complete outcross, which will make him an attractive stallion prospect. Ironically, his sire, grandsire, and great-grandsire all ran in the Kentucky Derby and were beaten a total of 76 lengths. Everything in his family has come in pairs. His sire won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Miles, his grandsire sired back-to-back Kentucky Derby winners, and his great-grandsire won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classics. Are we about to see back-to-back Triple Crown victories?
His female family, despite having Rokeby Stable blood going back to his fifth generation and with his fifth dam being by Riva Ridge, has been less than mediocre. His dam, Ma’am, ran in eight claiming races. She had been purchased privately by McPeek for Lance Gasaway and two partners from Ted Bassett and his wife Lucy, who bred the filly. McPeek was offered her after she failed to meet her $9,500 reserve at the Keeneland September yearling sale. Mystik Dan’s second dam, Lady Siphonica, raced eight times, losing her last seven starts by a total of 133 lengths. His third dam, Cherokee Crossing, was 0-for-17, and ran for a $40,000 claiming tag. And his fourth dam, Sky Meadows, was unraced.
McPeek trained Ma’am for most of her career until he was replaced by Brad Cox when McPeek moved his stable to Gulfstream Park and the owners wanted to keep her close to home at Oaklawn.
Gasaway would remain close to McPeek and would visit his Magdalena Farm when he was in Kentucky. After Ma’am was retired it was decided to keep her, and McPeek recommended they breed her to Goldencents to inject some speed into her. And so was born a Kentucky Derby winner foaled at Magdalena Farm.
The colt eventually was sent to McPeek’s Silverleaf Training Center in Ocala, Florida, where he was saddle broke and got his early training. So it is safe to say Mystik Dan is a complete Kenny McPeek package from buying and training his dam to recommending his sire to foaling him, breaking him, and training him.
“He was such a laid-back horse and so easy to break,” recalled Dominic Brennan, assistant trainer in charge at Silverleaf. “It was as if he was broken from day one. Whatever you asked him to do it was like, ‘OK, I can do that. What do you want me to do next?’ The one thing that stamped him as a potential good horse was that everything came so easy to him. I know that people kept bringing up that the Southwest Stakes was in the slop, but he’d run on glass if you asked him to.”
When it was time to name the colt, for one of the partners, Daniel Hamby, it was his turn to name a horse. His father had a tape company named Mystik, and his father’s name was Dan. So Mystik Dan it was.
The colt debuted at Keeneland on October 23, 2023 going 6 ½ furlongs. Sent off at 12-1, he went to the front, battled all the way and finished second. As Gasaway, who owns Mystik Dan with Hamby, 4G Racing, and Valley View Farm, said, “Typically, when you run first or second at Keeneland first time out you know you have a good horse. Kenny sacrifices his win percentages to run before the horse is probably ready, probably 75% ready. He believes a race is better than three workouts.”
As McPeek put it, “He was always a quick horse and we ran him in that spot to teach him a let him get some dirt kicked in his face.”
In his next start, McPeek, feeling with all the speed he showed first time out and being by the speedy Goldencents he might be a sprinter, dropped him back to 5 ½ furlongs at Churchill Downs. Again going head and head on the lead, he blew his opponents away, winning by 7 ¾ lengths in a blazing 1:03 1/5, earning a whopping 96 Beyer speed figure.
Now is where the real story of Mystik Dan begins and why so many people were down on him for the Derby. It was now November 25 and McPeek needed to know if he had a sprinter or a two-turn horse. But coming off such a fast race he looked on the speed sheets as if he were likely to “bounce,” or regress, coming back so quickly.
The colt backed off his feed before the race. They took blood on him and he was fine, so they went ahead and ran him and he tired after pressing the pace, finishing fifth. It was discovered after he started coughing he came out of the race with a lung infection. McPeek later admitted he made a mistake by running him right back in only two weeks and stretching him out to a mile. The colt was then sent to Oaklawn with the rest of McPeek’s horses, and on January 1 they ran the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes. McPeek already had several potential Derby horses, headed by Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up Real Men Violin. Mystik Dan had missed several works going into the race and was a short horse with only a slow half-mile and three-furlong breeze in 36 days. He tracked the pace and was still fighting for the lead at the eighth pole, but his lack of conditioning caught up with him and he tired to finish fifth, but still was beaten only three lengths by Catching Freedom.
After the Smarty Jones McPeek gave him long gallops and trained him behind horses and taught him how to go along steadily and stalk and then finish strong the last three furlongs. Always a horse who did whatever you asked of him, he quickly figured it all out and could now control his speed. When McPeek saw him in the paddock before the Southwest and he was acting like an old pony he knew this was a different horse. Over a sloppy track, Brian Hernandez gave him a perfect ground-saving trip, slipping through on the rail and drawing off with long fluid strides to romp by eight lengths. I commented in Derby Rankings he was a thing of beauty to watch.
Some have pointed out that a rail bias that day helped a great deal, but Thoro-Graph, which relies heavily on ground loss to boost a rating and a ground saving trip to detract from it, still gave him a monster figure of “1/4,” or to make it easier a zero-plus. No one this year had come close to that number, and that also applied to his 101 Beyer speed figure.
One of the reasons why he ran such a fantastic race could have been his half-mile work in :48 2/5 on January 27. McPeek and assistant trainer Greg Geier were looking for a potential workmate for the colt and chose a Fast Anna filly, in which McPeek and his wife Sherri were part owners, named Thorpedo Anna, who was runner-up in the Golden Rod Stakes after romping in her first two starts. As it turned out they were too fast for each other. “She made him work,” McPeek said. “I think she was the reason he won the Southwest. She really got him fit. We didn’t have any other horses in the barn who could do that. I think he got her fit, too.”
Who could have predicted that morning in late January that those two up-and-coming horses working together would become the first stablemates to win the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks since Ben Jones accomplished it in 1949 with Calumet Farm’s Wistful and Ponder. But back then the Kentucky Oaks was not nearly as prestigious a race as it is now.
Because the Oaklawn stakes had been delayed due to the weather, with the Southwest run a week later than usual, it was decided to pass the Rebel and wait for the Arkansas Derby, shipping the colt to Fair Grounds to train in better weather. By skipping the Rebel, Mystik Dan needed to finish in the money to assure a spot in the Derby. And a third would be cutting it close.
Coming off the layoff, the Arkansas Derby was a near disaster, as Liberal Arts, third in the Southwest, bore out badly on the first turn and knocked into Mystik Dan, with his head actually hitting Hernandez, forcing the colt back to eighth and losing five or six lengths. That certainly was not where he wanted to be. He made a good move on the turn, but couldn’t sustain it and had to settle for third. The horse who was second, Just Steel, had finished eight lengths behind Mystik Dan in the Southwest, so this was far from a true indication of who this horse was. Mystik Dan was in the Derby, but just barely, at No. 18 on the points list.
He arrived in Kentucky loaded for bear and turned in an eye-popping five-furlong work in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 71 works at the distance. He was ready for the Derby, and McPeek was getting confident he could actually win the Derby and the Oaks, as Thorpedo Anna, coming off an impressive victory in the Fantasy Stakes, also turned in a huge work.
If there was one thing McPeek and Gasaway were confident about it was that Mystik Dan would have no problem with the large crowd and chaotic nature of Derby Day. “We are ordinary people who have an amazing horse that God gave us,” Gasaway said, “Kenny calls him an old soul he’s so chill. Nothing bothers him.”
That is one of the reasons Hernandez has always been confident he can keep him down on the rail in a tight spot, knowing he will relax and then go through any size opening when you ask him. It is no coincidence that Hernandez is fearless on the rail and as no reservations heading there and taking his chances.
“When I was getting started at Fair Grounds I sat in the same corner as Calvin Borel and studied his m.o..” he said. “When we drew the 3 post I watched Calvin’s rides on Super Saver and Mine That Bird in the Derby, both on the rail, and said I’m just going to roll the dice. I found a spot going into the first turn and sat tight and we went through with no problem.”
Nearing the head of the stretch, when Track Phantom moved out just enough, it was the Southwest Stakes all over again. It was tight, but Mystik Dan once again never hesitated. He charged through even though it was such a narrow opening Hernandez’s boot hit the rail. He charged through with clear sailing ahead, just like at Oaklawn. The rest as they say is history.
The following morning, Mystik Dan was at his hay rack munching away and entertaining visitors, allowing them to pet and hug him. Despite now being a battle-hardened veteran, he still was that “old soul” and the kind, easy-going colt Dominic Brennan remembers as a baby.
So ended the 150th Kentucky Derby, which was one for the record books that will be talked about regardless of how you wish to remember it. But despite the controversies and disappointments, and the bad luck suffered by a number of the participants, it should be remembered for its heroes – winners and losers.
We have to give a bow to Forever Young and his trainer, and even his exercise rider who brought him over to the rail each morning to let the fans get a close-up look at a Derby horse, some reaching over to pet him. Who knows if we’ll see him again, but no one will forget his courage under fire and his dogged determination trying to catch Mystik Dan with a big imposing foe draped all over him every step of the way, even turning him sideways a few times. Yet he never backed down and fought his way to the wire only to fall a few inches short. He, along with his countrymate T O Password, who ran an amazing race coming from 18th to finish fifth at 48-1, issued the final warning to Americans that Japan is here to stay. And there are no questionable prep races, no workouts slow enough or fast enough, and no journey arduous enough to stop them.
We won’t have any problem remembering Sierra Leone, who despite his idiosyncrasies has provided racing fans with thrills every time he has stepped on the track. In the end, we will not remember his erratic running as much as we will his explosive runs from last to first or inches from first, all the time wondering just how special he will be as he keeps competing and maturing. Fast, sloppy or muddy tracks; outside or inside posts; fast or slow fractions, he will be coming. Just stay out of his way.
We also have to mention the immensely talented, but enigmatic and frustrating Fierceness, and just hope that one day he will learn how to be a racehorse every time he steps in that starting gate.
And finally we come to Mystik Dan, who silenced his many critics, if not with his overall ability and professionalism, then with the way he sent them all home with empty wallets and having Sierra Leone’s and Forever Young’s avid supporters pounding their head against the wall in disbelief and frustration.
But on a more realistic note, it is difficult not to be happy for Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez and a colt who was able to put it all together and shine on America’s biggest stage. This unforgettable episode of Twin McPeeks managed to draw a massive audience that was last topped in 1989. They may not have seen the ending they expected or hoped to see, but they sure experienced enough thrills and chills to hopefully come back for more.
Photos courtesy of Churchill Downs
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Muth out of Preakness.
Spiked a fever after arrival at Pimlico.
Unfortunate. Hope he will be OK.
Nelson and all interested, just announced Kirbarkhan will be trained by Brad Cox.
The Preakness looks like a pretty good race, but some of those undercard races are disappointing. The Saturday card has the potential to really fall apart. Especially, if the turf races get rained off.
$100,000 Stakes races on a big day just doesn’t cut it anymore. The entries back that up.
They didn’t get the Arabian race for the 14th and final on Saturday, leaving us with a lousy 7-horse field as “the get out race”.
I’ll try to stay positive and look forward to what is sure to be a fantastic card on Belmont Day at Saratoga.
One more negative comment. I’ll repeat what I wrote a few days ago. If this is the state of Maryland racing, I think they should rethink putting all that money into rebuilding Pimlico. I have to wonder how much of that cash actually gets spent on the track.
I’m wrong lots of times and might be again with this comment. But I don’t see Muth as the unbeatable favorite that others do. He looks real good, and the pace situation likely favors he and his stablemate, but there are some decent horses in there. I’ll go with one of Tuscan Gold, Catching Freedom, or Mystik Dan and box those 3 in an exacta. Maybe key Tuscan Gold with the other two.
I’m planning to key tuscan gold as well.
It’s frustrating and sad to watch MD racing floundering. I love the Preakness, and I wish they could find a way to better support it.
Just started to look at the Preakness lineup. One eye opener was the rider change on Just Steel who I like very much but didnt use him in my KD plays for 2 reasons. One he runs a very good one every other race and the jockey, Keith Assmussen to be nice is an inferior rider. Now Lukas gets Rosario. I think Lukas kind of knew the race flow was against him in KD combined w the fact that the horse is very good every other race gives the mount to Assmussen to set it up for this Saturday. Hes going to be a price and I will be using in all combinations
Preakness field
Post. Horse, odds
1. Mugatu, 20-1
2. Uncle Heavy, 20-1
3. Catching Freedom, 6-1
4. Muth, 8-5
5. Mystik Dan, 5-2
6. Seize the Grey, 15-1
7. Just Steel, 15-1
8. Tuscan Gold, 8-1
9. Imagination, 6-1
Mystic Dan, Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold
No horses from BB, Brad C, or Kenny McPeek in the BlackEyed Susan. Obviously, the Pimlico Friday entries are out.
Lemon Muffin will be coming back from the Kentucky Oaks in 2 weeks for the BlackEyed Susan. The Coach likes to run them. A negative numbers pattern though.
I was wondering what happened to Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby when Muth beat him rather easily. Number one, Mystik Dan drew outside of Muth and had to take back from a line of horses going for the lead into the first turn. Number two, Mystik Dan was bothered by a rank Liberal Arts. In fact, I can’t be sure, but Liberal Arts might have tried to savage Mystic Dan on that first turn. Take a bite out of him. Can’t say for sure. After getting shuffled back, Mystik Dan moved up willingly on his own, but Muth was long gone after getting a perfect trip.
I think that Mystik Dan might have quicker acceleration than Muth.
I’m pretty sure that Brian Hernandez would prefer an inside post position. Right in the pocket behind Imagination and Muth.
Six days out and without seeing the Form, I’m thinking exacta & trifecta boxes using Mystik Dan, Chasing Freedom, and Tuscan Gold. Full disclosure: I only play trifectas in fields of 10 or more. Let’s see if they get 10 entrants. Maybe.
Steve has mentioned that MD was hit in the chest by Liberal Arts and lost ground. He had a good reason to run as he did. What you can say is that given good trips, MD beat Just Steel by 8 lengths in the Southwest, by double digits in the Derby, while Muth bested Just Steel by only 2. Not an exact science but a good indicator that MD is more explosive in the stretch than Muth.
Muth was cruising to the wire. Jockey didn’t push him much, won comfortably. Your analysis forgot that point. Also, muth is much quicker than MD. MD will have to close on the 3year old best horse properly geared up with two nice prep wins.
Muth also has mud larks all in his breeding as well. His positioning should be perfect if it’s a wet track.
Having that in your pedigree and proving it on a wet track are two different things. I’ll take the proven horse every time. We agree to wager against one another that is for sure.
Cruising to the wire? Take another look without the cranberry colored glasses on my friend. Count the whips down the lane, I came up with 5 and waving the stick to the wire from 50 yards out. Look at the pumping motion on Hernandez. Final 1/8 in 12.1. That is not cruising home eating popcorn and eyeballing the crowd, as your analysis would paint. And I will add this for fun. MD will smoke Muth out of the gate, take the rail and get his trip. If he gets the 137 mile I suspect you can start watching what push button speed looks like. Muth didn’t have it in the BC, and he doesn’t have it now. I actually fear Imagination more than Muth.
Muth past the wire extended his lead, clearly. If you knew Muths history, he had the fastest 5 furlong time at Dei Mar. MD will have zero chance being in front of Muth in first turn unless there is an issue at break. With imagination outside, muth will be the leader or some other horse kamakazie to the lead, and Muth then will sit
I’ve been watching some replays. I rewatched the Derby 5 times. Mystik Dan was handier than I remembered. Brian Hernandez held their inside position and was kind of fortunate to get through on the rail. He definitely made contact with Track Phantom and probably the rail as well. Mystik Dan showed tremendous courage going through there and to hold off Sierra Leone & Forever Young. I don’t see any horses as good as Sierra Leone and Forever Young in the Preakness. I wouldn’t count Catching Freedom out of it though. He had traffic issues the first time down the stretch and around the first turn. But ran evenly with Mystik Dan down the stretch. Catching Freedom had an extra week rest before the Derby which could be a factor coming back in just 2 weeks after the Derby. Catching Freedom is still on a nice rising numbers pattern. He’s not one of the typical Brad C heavily muscled brutes. But he always comes with his run.
I thought Catching Freedom finished well in sneaky fashion in the Derby, with nowhere to go but follow the leader.
Katy, Catching Freedom had the best finish of the top 4 from stretch to the wire. Not sure about ‘sneaky’ the evidence is in the Charts. Ha ha
If Catching Freedom is truly up to this task, physically, they all might be running for place.
Completely agree. Nobody but us is talking about it, right? Because a three horse photo is very distracting. Shhhh… 😉 JK
That’s right, Katy, let the horse do all the talking.
With all the 3-year-olds that Todd Pletcher had going into the Road to the Kentucky Derby, it’s interesting that he is highly unlikely to have a runner in the Preakness. I saw many people describe his stable as “loaded” for the Triple Crown.
Pletcher’s Emmanuel is listed as a “probable” for Saturday’s Dinner Party on the Preakness undercard. The horse could be “live”.
Brad C says that Flavien Prat will be riding Catching Freedom. Who is going to ride Tuscan Gold? Jose Ortiz? Javier Castellano? Manny Franco?
The last favorite to win the Preakness was Triple Crown Winner Justify in 2018. Preakness favorites have lost 5 in a row.
Can Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez sweep the BlackEyed Susan/Preakness Double? Do they even have a horse for the BlackEyed Susan?
Robby Albarado who rides Mystik Dan in his workouts says that he is a “push button” horse. That sounds like the kind of horse who could catch Muth. Better yet, “Dan” might not go favored.
Tommy, I believe Tyler Gaffaleone has the return call on Tuscan Gold.
Catching Freedom will go ….Preakness is shaping into a good running … Bob’s duo are both looking good ….Muth has never run a bad race …..Mystik Dan could fetch a good price, unless it rains…..I respect that horse…..
Imagination could creep up in odds…..this horse will battle….
Does Uncle Heavy have any speed? I really don’t remember. He had a troubled trip in the Wood Memorial. As a son of Social Inclusion, he sounds fast even if I think he’s not.
I remember Social Inclusion winning a race in Florida with an off the charts performance which quickly made him the talk of the town and a Derby favorite. He never came close to that performance again. In fact, after winning his first 2 races, he never won again. Although, 3rds in the Wood, Preakness, and Woody Stephens aren’t too shabby.
Uncle Heavy is a closer
Thank you, Sir. Looks like BB will control the pace.
Are the 2 BBs shaping up as the speed of the Preakness? Imagination on the lead with Muth on his flank. BB is always dangerous when he gets a scenario like that.
I don’t like Imagination at all. Which probably means that he is the winner. Even though I wasn’t playing yesterday, I noticed that a couple of horses that I don’t care for found the winner’s circle. Antiquarian and Silver Knott. Maybe Imagination takes them all the way with Muth running interference for him.
I just feel like Muth is much better than his stablemate.
Rain in the forecast could help Mystik Dan. Maybe Tuscan Gold too. They’ll have to go around the BB pair.
Chad Brown’s 2 Triple Crown wins have both been in the Preakness. Cloud Computing and Early Voting.
Irad Ortiz looks for his first Preakness win on Uncle Heavy. His 2 Triple Crown wins were both in the Belmont. Creator and Mo Donegal.
The Preakness draw isn’t until 5:30pm on Monday. With 14 races on Saturday, I need to get busy.
I finally got a chance to savor this Steve, and on a morning so quiet and blue, I could not have picked a better time to really enjoy your writing. I love to read in the early morning hours, it’s currently 6am but I’ve been up since 4:30. With my front door open, the smell of coffee wafting in the air and birds singing outside I dived in to this article knowing I was in for a treat and as always you did not disappoint. I agree with your decision to focus on the other two horses who helped make this one of the best finishes in Louisville in my lifetime. And for your mention of Thorpedo Anna making Dan a better horse. It also helps to have a barn full careful and professional folks that Mr. McPeek certainly has. Great recap and lets move on to Maryland for what is turning out to be a helluva race.
Lol. That is the most beautiful description anyone has ever porttayed of reading my columm Coffee, birds, and me. You covered all three senses. Smell, sound, and sight. I am honored. Thanks so much.
Sunday’s racing is centred around ParisLongchamp, with the running of the early Classics: Poule d’Essai des Pouliches Group 1 (French 1,000 Guineas) for 3 year old fillies and the Poule d’Essai des Poulains Group 1 (French 2,000 Guineas) for 3 year old colts.
In the former, While Birch (Peter Brant) has an excellent chance of winning with the undefeated Siyouni filly, Louise Proctor. In the latter, the undefeated Henry Longfellow (Coolmore et al) by Dubawi is a warm favorite but so was City of Troy in the English 2,000 Guineas and we know what happened there. Good luck.
The forecast expects sunny but cool weather, perfect for racing while the going will be soft. Enjoy the beauty and excitement of French racing at it’s best.
Well, what can you say, all the Classics around the world have been won by less fancied runners. Iol.
The Japanese Oaks will be run on May 19, Japanese Derby May 26.
The Irish 2,000 Guineas will be run May 25, Irish 1,000 Guineas May 26.
Leading up to the KD a co-host of a YouTube Channel and a very animated fan of Fierceness, suggested the colt was a potential TC winner as he felt he was that talented.
I enquired if he was aware of Todd Pletcher’s Preakness record. As expected, he didn’t provide a reply. Given how highly regarded Fierceness was viewed. If he emerged the winner of the KD, the TC talk would have been through the roof.
The colt’s challenge to the KD given his trainer’s poor KD record had to be considered significantly easier than winning the Preakness. Todd Pletcher seems to be outside his element in the Preakness.
The HOF trainer had his first Preakness stater in 2000. Since then he has been represented by 7 additional staters. See below:
2000 – Impeachment – 3rd 3 3/4L. (KD starter)
2007 – Circular Quay – 5th by 6 1/4L (KD starter)
2009 – Take the Points – 13th by 32 3/4L
2010 – Super Saver – 8th by 11 3/4L (KD winner)
2011 – Dance City – 5th by 6 1/4L
2016 – Stradivari – 4th by 4L
2017 – Always Dreaming – 8th by 14L (KD winner)
2021 – Unbridled Honor – 6th by 17L
Todd Pletcher’s 8 Preakness starters have been beaten by a combined 86L. His closest finish was 3rd by 3 3/4 which was his best recorded 24 years ago. His two KD winners were beaten by a combined 25L.
Could Fierceness have overcome TP’s poor KD and Preakness records and get to the Belmont where he rules supreme?
That was a touch ask.
Steve stated below that he would be opened to changing the TC scheduled if only to save the Preakness.
Does the running of Preakness scheduled for 2 weeks after the KD, contribute to small fields and disincentives KD participants?
Is the 2 weeks turnaround too physically demanding on the modern-day thoroughbred?
I use Equibase as a major cite for researching past results. The cite has 47 years (1976 – 2023) of Preakness results. See breakdown of winners below:
KD winners – 17
KD non-winners – 20
Did not contest KD – 10
Of the last 47 running of the Preakness, 37 winners had contested the KD two weeks earlier. The dominance of KD participants has only diminished over the last 4 years.
The last 4 running of the Preakness was won by an entrant that didn’t contest the KD. This represents the longest stretch in which a KD participant did not win.
Given the dominance of KD participants in the Preakness. It cannot be reasonably concluded that the turnaround time presents a physical challenge.
The declining numbers of KD participants in the Preakness could be due to the fact that many KD entrants are not genuine 10F horses. Contesting a race over a distance outside their scope can be physically draining. Consequently, greater recovery time is required to restore them to competitive shape.
What is very interesting is that a retired jockey, Robbie Albarado, is the exercise rider for Mystic Dan. He won two Preakness races, the first on Curlin and the second for Swiss Skydiver.
Robbie told Gary Stevens that Mystic Dan was going to win the Derby but Stevens wouldn’t believe him.
Robbie says Dan is a very intelligent and push button horse.
Blood-Horse has an article on him.
The Belmont used to be run two weeks after the Preakness, and they changed that to three weeks….
Looks like it’s official; Mystik Dan is in the Preakness. Kenny McPeek says he’s “doing fantastic” right now. Thoughts?
He has an excellent chance to win. Both he and Muth faced off against Just Steel and the winning margins aren’t even close. Advantage Mystic Dan. You can bet he won’t get the rail but it won’t matter. I just hope he has enough time to get some muscle and weight back. Sounds like McPeek is comfortable with his condition so let them roll. We’ll see how he looks on the track next week.
Excited! I’m also hoping Catching Freedom goes. We’re supposed to find out today if he’s in. His connections have taken a similar path to Mystik Dan’s- They like the idea, but want to make sure the horse is ready and fit.
I hope he goes too. Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom were on the top of my winning Superfecta and trifecta. I figured one of them was going to get the trip and win. Looking forward to watching them both again.
He’s (Mystick Dan) has earned it.
Per Horse Racing Nation, McPeek said this morning Mystik Dan is going to the Preakness if he passes requisite physical exam today…
Can someone create a gofundme page for Tyler? He is broke after that HUGE fine.
The second place was worth 100K and third place was 50K.
Yes, in most sports these days the punishment doesn’t fit the crime.
Update, Tyler G was fined but not suspended for ride on SL in Kentucky Derby.
Hope everyone is safe from the tormadic thunderstorms that rolled through multiple states including Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia and Tennessee Aednesday night and Thursday morning.
Do any of you have cicadas?
Been hatching here for at least two weeks. They are everywhere, guess because this is a rural area.
Have a great weekend everyone.
$2500
First time in over 200 years two different broods are hatching at the same time. Illinois and Iowa supposed to get the most of them, into the trillions. But other states as well.
No doubt ear plugs are selling like hot cakes. In Sydney, Australia, they’ve had 12 days of heavy rain with no stopping insight – almost 8 inches of rain so far. They always pride themselves of being ‘sunny Sydney.’
The noise really does not bother me, though I am guessing the regions that have two species emerging the noise must be maddening. They are not as loud on cloudy days.
It is a field day for anglers and free range chickens and other poultry. Cats and dogs snack on them.
When I was a child they were called locusts.
Think they will be with us for a couple more weeks.
Another interesting phenomenon are the solar flares that are producing northern lights as far south as Atlanta.
Cicadas, solar eclipse (88% visible here) and Northern lights have all made for a very interesting year.
There’s a lot of discussion on social media (and media in general) about revising the Triple Crown schedule. McPeek said Wed he thinks it should be reimagined to help with “concerns over horse safety” and “it would lead to more KD participants competing in all three [Triple Crown] races”. He said he’d “change the schedule so the second and third legs are held on the first Sat of June and first Sat of July.” I personally don’t have a problem with this but traditionalists might. Yeah, put an asterisk next to winners with the expanded schedule if you must, but it would still be really hard to win all three. Curious as to what Steve thinks.
Normally I would be open to at least consider it only to save the Preakness, but how is NYRA going to OK it. That would mean get rid of the Jim Dandy or just have it become a cheap prep with few top horses, and I wouldnt think NYRA wants to have the Travers only 4 weeks after the Belmont when the top Tiple Crown horses usually get some time off. It just becomes a tack on to the Triple Crown rather than the stand alone Midsummer Derby that all the best horses point for. So NYRA loses out on both their big 3yo stakes
Hi Steve,
While you make good points, the NYRA would have to do something if the Maryland Jockey Club moved the Preakness. Instead of placing the Preakness in early June, I would hold it during the Memorial Day weekend. This would force the NRYA to move the Belmont.
Also, I see no reason why the Travers couldn’t be held on the same weekend as the Hopeful to close out the Saratoga meeting.
The MJC must do something to save the Preakness. It is almost becoming irrelevant in the eyes of Derby also-rans.
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . and tradition (when it makes sense)
The Preakness Stakes reminds me, in certain respects, of the St Leger Stakes in the English Triple Crown. Classic races that haven’t moved with the times and are basically irrelevant to modern racing.
The distance of the St Leger Stakes is considered too long a race these days that flat racing stud farms won’t stand the winners and they end up in the National Hunt Studs (jumps racing etc). Owners of the Epsom Derby or 2,000 Guineas winners aren’t going to spoil a golden goose by running in the race. Unless, you’re Coolmore who want the prestige of breeding a Triple Crown winner and they have studs for both types anyway.
If the St Leger was reduced to say 10f the race would become alive again. if the Preakness Stakes was shifted to a more acceptable date for trainers that race would be revived as well. The Preakness, in it’s present state seems doomed to an ignoble fate as has become the St Leger.
The last horse to win the English Triple Crown was the mighty Nijinsky way, way back in 1970. Lost in time.
How about running the Preakness three weeks after the Derby, and the Belmont 4 after the Preakness? That would place this year’s Preakness on May 25, with the Belmont June 22. That leaves five weeks to the Travers. Alternatively, the Belmont could remain three weeks after the Preakness, which would give NYRA a six-week game between the Belmont and the Travers.
GAP, that is.
Ms. B, if the Belmont were held on June 22 this year, the Travers would be a nine weeks gap. The Travers is held on August 24. The Jim Dandy is held on July 27th so I don’t see any disruption or problem with adding an extra week between each leg of the Triple Crown. I think that NYRA would be okay with this slight adjustment.
Thanks, Dewey. I can no longer add. I must have skipped an entire month!
Brian Hernandez is a Louisiana native from Cajun country. I am certain that he had a long conversation with Calvin Borel; ride that rail is what Calvin had to say about the upcoming run for the roses.
I have watched video from all angles so many times. It looks like Mystic Dan bumped Track Phantom in the stretch. I am not taking away from Mystic Dan’s win, but that was a dangerous, tight hole to go through on the rail.
I have also watched that portion of Mystik Dans trip and from another perspective I would say that Track Phantom came in on Mystik Dan. It sure looks to me that there was sufficient room for MD to come up the rail but half way through it, TP veers left into MD who was coming up the rail in the 1 path. TP was not on the rail. He was in lane 2 when Hernandez sent MD but you can see TP move over on MD, not the other way around.
No action taken against Tyler G by CD. Good!!
Case closed, time to move on to the Preakness.
I found the post times and wagering menu for Preakness Day. Another early start. 14 races starting at 10:30am with the 14th and final race going off at 7:43pm. That will be about a 9 1/2 hour day at the races. Sounds great. BTW, that 14th race will be an Arabian race for the 4th year in a row. They can run forever. It just takes them a little longer to get there.
In what has become a cliche on the big days, rolling multi-race wagers. A pick-4, pick-5, or pick-6 starting in each of the first 10 races. They make it hard for a horseplayer. Especially, one that is trying to stretch his bankroll to an historic Belmont at Saratoga. I can only hope that Steve Haskin is as spot on with his analysis of the Preakness as he was on the Derby and chooses to share it with us.
The thing about Fierceness……I rewatched the Derby—Fierveness was always right there….off a :46 3/5 half…..and he had nothing……perhaps if he ran :47….. it’s a game of inches, a horse goes :47 and romps…he goes :46 3/5 and he fades ….but Fierceness looked like he was sitting pretty, until he didn’t…..
TP effect, he has no idea how to prepare a horse for the KD. All the top class horses his owners provide him, and his results are below the mendoza line.
The 20-horse Kentucky Derby is very difficult to win, you need the horse and you need him to peak at the right time …
Jeff, Pletcher is one of many trainers never respected,but currently has two Derby wins. How many has Asmussen won?
Hestatistical numbers at all.y Mike: It is true that Pletcher has 2 Kentucky Derby wins but please remember he has started over 60 horses in the Derby. Not good
Thoroughbred dirt track horses cannot run any faster than they already do.
They have maxed out because their cardio-vascular systems and skeletal frames cannot support running any faster.
Back temporarily. Severe thunderstorms here Wednesday night and early Thursday resulted on a lightning strike that fried my modem, my husband’s TV and his cable box
Did not hit the power lines, had it done so it would have fried all my appliances. So thankful for that.
New modem supposed to be here today. Going to try to set up Roku TV on wi-fi so he can at least watch something. He is TV addicted. LOL.
Ya’ll have fun!
Pain using my cell phone for Internet access.
One more thing regarding Secretariat.
Ron Turcotte knew him better and what he was capable of more than anyone else.
We can only dream about what he could have accomplished at age 4 or 5 or had he went to England.
There have been many great horses that I have watched bit none that I have seen so far will ever be greater than Secretariat in my mind.
Some are bothered if s horse loses a face but I am not one of those people.
His greatest races in my opinion were his Preakness, the Belmont and his last race in Canada on turf. These 3 races still take my breath, give me chills and tears 50 years later
So sorry to hear about the storm and its damage, Lynda. Very frustrating to lose internet and TV. Sounds like your storm was the same one that obliterated an entire small town in the midwest. (We were watching closely because our family farm is in NW Missouri.) I feel fortunate that so far all we get in the Catskills is gloomy weather, but the wildfire threat is becoming pervasive wherever there is heavy tree canopy.
Tks Ms .
Got the wifi back up today, internet provider rushed overnight shipment of new modem.
The lightning strike hit the telephone and cable line about 3:00 AM Thursday. We were under tornado watch for about 16 hours.
Have friends in Tennessee who marked themselves safe on FB.
Cable box might be fried, his TV is for sure.
I do not watch TV so does not bother me but he does. Going to try to get ROKU up on wi-fi for him this evening.
Hope all is well with your friends and family in Missouri.
Good luck Lynda.
I’m so sorry all this happened to you and your husband. I hope he can replace his TV soon.
Brilliant recap Steve. The depth you bring to us is amazing. Chronicler Extraordinaire. some people think anybody can be replaced. In your case I think NOT!
That is very kind of you Derek. Thank you so much.
Mystik Dan does look thin…I wonder how much weight he lost, I remember Flying Paster dropped 75 lbs, from the Derby …
The 1979 Derby was run on a very deep track, times that day were slow….Flying Paster lost a lot of weight, and I have always thought Spectacular Bid was a tired horse, for the Belmont…of course one of the horses who finished in front of him, Golden Act ran in all three, too…..not many horses finished on front of Bid, three did, as a three year old, nobody finished in front of Bid as a four year old,
Asmussen gets replaced, for The Preakness on Just Steel…..I thought he gave a good ride, thought he and Fierceness were sitting pretty, the field wasn’t spread out like most Derbys…. Fierceness looked dangerous outside, so did Just Steel…..what few mention is how Mystik Dan scraped paint and bumped into Track Phantom, before getting thru and opening up on them…..it was a great race….
I will not be taking Just Steel lightly in the Preakness. In 2013, Orb won the KD with a perfect pace setup. Palace Malice set an insane pace and Wayne Lukas’ Oxbow made first run on him. Both backed up badly in the stretch. Oxbow came back to win the Preakness and Palace Malice the Belmont. Orb accomplished little else. To a pace handicapper, both of those winners were good bets. Now, Just Steel switches riders after inexplicably getting caught up in the fast KD pace. May not win, but will surely offer value.
Just Steel needs break,however in wrong barn to get one before next century. Was there when Orb prevailed for Derby win. As for him, ‘accomplishing little else’, most horses don’t win, or in a position to ever win a Derby.
In trying to make a point about real world handicapping, I’ve again touched a nerve. Predictably.
This is an opinion blog.
The refusal to see is one of the major causes of blindness.
Agreed Counter!
Among others. If anyone actually read my post, it had nothing to do with virtues or flaws of individual trainers, but things to look for when trying to pick a winner based on how previous races were run. You guys are tiresome.
You don’t get it, have the right to my opinion, like you and everyone else!
Orb spent over two months at Fair Hill Training Centre after the Belmont Stakes. In the Travers Stakes, Orb had the lead and was just overtaken by Will Take Charge and Mareno in the dying stages. Palace Malice ran 4th in the Travers Stakes, Verrazano the winner of the Haskell Stakes came in 7th.
Orb ran once more in the Jockey Club Gold but came in last and never raced again. Oxbow after a second in the Belmont Stakes ran fourth in the Haskell Stakes to Verrazano and was never seen again.
Correct!
It was widely rumored that Orb had EIPH.
Orb was being treated with hyperbolic oxygen therapy.
I was watching a race on FOX and they showed a graphic listing nine(9) Graded Stakes races scheduled to be run on Belmont Day at Saratoga. The Belmont at Saratoga is starting to feel like an historical event. An event that every horse player will want to be a part of. The Stars usually come out for the big events. Which means big pools and maybe some big payoffs. That will be on June 8th. And if Fierceness, who always alternates his good ones with his bad ones, comes back that day, he’ll be sitting on one of his good ones. We all know that. I wouldn’t touch him with a 10-foot pole in his next race after that though.
If Bob Baffert is the KD king, Todd Pletcher in the Belmont king.
Trying to post
If Mystik Dan does run in the Preakness, does Muth go off favored over the Derby winner? I think most people think so. Muth was a good horse last year and seems even better this year. But the value might end up being the Derby winner if he shows up.
TommyMcD: I think it would be foolish for the connections (McPeek} to run Mystik Dan back in 2 weeks. Dan was pretty wiped out after the Derby. I also don’t think Dan is a bonafide Triple Crown horse.
Muth opened up at 6/5 on some website that I saw.
Racing fans know Bafferts record in the Preakness. There is no way Muth won’t be the favorite.
I have a question for Baffert, where is Maymun? No works that I have found for awhile & no news out of the Baffert camp………….
Agree Deacon! Also, what happened to Nysos and PM ?
I’ve been looking back at the Preakness Stakes for the last 5 years and I’ve noticed a disturbing trend. Fewer horses each year. It will be interesting to see how many horses actually make the starting gate this year to race for the $2million purse. Why don’t trainers want to go to Pimlico?
2019: 13 horse field Winner: War of Will $14.20
2020: 11 horse field Winner: Swiss Skydiver $25.40 (favored Authentic 2nd at 3-2)
2021: 10 horse field Winner: Rombauer $25.60 (favored Medina Spirit 3rd at 2-1)
2022: 9 horse field Winner: Early Voting $13.40 (favored Epicenter 2nd at 6-5)
2023: 7 horse field Winner: National Treasure $7.80 (favored Mage 3rd at 7-5)
Notes: As I said, the number of horses went down each year.
The betting favorite didn’t win once in the last 5 years.
Last year, all 7 seven horses went off at less than their morning line odds. Kind of weird, probably because of the scratch of First Mission.
In 2022, Epicenter ran 2nd as the favorite in both the Derby and Preakness before coming back to win the Travers and finally showing them who’s the boss.
Tuscan Gold is entered in Saturday’s Peter Pan at Aqueduct and is still being mentioned as a possible for the Preakness. I’ve felt all along that Tuscan Gold looked more like a Belmont horse. But that was if the Belmont was at Belmont. A Belmont at Saratoga is an entirely different thing. And not just because of the distance change. Kenny McPeek says he won’t decide until the last minute about the Preakness for Mystik Dan. The Preakness desperately needs the Derby winner, but I don’t blame McPeek. He says that he’s been burned a couple of times when running horses back too quickly. Frankly, times have changed. Horses today don’t race very often and aren’t up to a 2 week turnaround. Well, unless that trainer’s name is D Wayne Lukas.
I think that Epicenter was better than Mystik Dan. If Epicenter couldn’t pull it off, why can Mystik Dan? I think because of running style. Epicenter ran hard all the way around the track. Mystik Dan does most of his running late.
I just read that Chad Brown says he will scratch Tuscan Gold from the Peter Pan and run him in the Preakness.
He can win that race.
You just gave me a lift, Steve. I have a $20 futures bet on Tuscan Gold winning the Preakness.
Thank you, my friend.
I’m getting odds of 17-1.
He was the best horse in the Louisiana Derby so 17-1 is excellent. Good luck.
Thanks, Steve
This recap is so well said, wow- thanks Steve for putting this together. Sums up well what occurred on Saturday. I also appreciated your thoughts along the Derby trail and look forward to next season already. 🙂
Thanks so much Shelly.
Awesome recap Steve always love your writing.
I appreciate it Rich. Thank you!
Hi
I haven’t looked this forward to a Belmont Stakes since 2015 and American Pharoah’s quest for the Triple Crown.
The reasons I am so keen about this year’s running are multi-fold:
The setting: Saratoga (say no more)
The distance: 1 1/4 miles
The field: Some of the horses who ran well but didn’t win the Derby including
Sierra Leone (but not Forever Young or T O Password)
Mystic Dan will be in the field if he wins the Preakness; no idea where
he would start next if he loses at Pimlico
What I love about this year’s Belmont is that it will have a smaller field than the Derby while keeping the Derby distance. It should make for a great race.
In fact, I suspect that if this year’s Belmont attracts a great field and is a competitive race, I can see the NYRA considering shortening the Belmont to 1 1/4 miles to make it a Derby rematch (much the way the St. James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot often brings together the winners of the 2000 Guineas and the Irish 2000 guineas winners and key also-rans.)
The Derby field of 20 horses is too large to determine which horse is truly the best three-year-old on the First Saturday in May.
Should be a great race – not how I would describe the upcoming Preakness.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Good looking field has been posted for the Peter Pan Stakes at BAQ, including Tuscan Gold, The Wine Steward, and Deterministic. I’ll be interested to see whether all go or any divert to the Preakness.
It’s an interesting race, Ms. B. For my money, I think it’s between The Wine Steward and Tuscan Gold. I don’t know why Chad Brown wouldn’t race in the Preakness? Tuscan Gold did not embarrass himself in the Louisiana Derby, finishing a good 3rd despite some traffic issues in the stretch. The Peter Pan is a Gr. III with a purse of $200,000 at 1 1/8 m. The Preakness is a Gr. I with a purse of $2,000,000 at 1 3/16 m. If Tuscan Gold wins the Peter Pan, he’ll receive $110,000.
If he wins the Preakness, he’ll receive $1,200,000, for 2nd $400,000 and for 3rd 200,000. Chad could be basing his decision on the time between the Peter Pan and Preakness to the Belmont?
Muth is a good horse but, imo, not a super horse. He’s beatable and I just wish more good horses would compete against him, especially considering the Gr. I and purse. It’s a head scratcher.
Appears Tuscan Gold will go to the Preakness and scratch from Peter Pan.
Yes, thanks Armaan. I just heard that Chad Brown called an audible and will send Tuscan Gold to Pimlico. I think he’s got a good shot to win it. He ran a good 3rd in the Louisiana Derby and has been training lights out. Go TG!
REFLECTIONS:
I undertake reflection after the KD each year. This reflection doesn’t involve the actual race but rather the pre-race perspectives, analysis and talent evaluation parameters
Top two pre-race entrants.
Fierceness – Entered with 110 Beyer and minus 3 1/2 TG Number. Form line reflected excellence and mediocrity in alternate races. He defeated 2 likely starers and two mor were defeated by BCJ runner up Muth in the AK Derby. He therefore had 4 of his likely 19 opponents cover directly and indirectly.
Sierra Leone – Entered with a <100 Beyer and decent TG Number. Form line reflected unimpeachable consistency. He had 16 of likely 19 opponents directly or indirectly covered. He defeated 8 likely starters and those 8 in turned defeated another 6 who defeated another 2 likely starters.
Speed Figures and TG Number aficionados concluded that Fierceness towered over the field as he had regained his special colt status after his FL Derby romp. Some Youtubers were even talking Triple Crown.
Speed Figures & TG Numbers at like bright light that turned on after each race. They illuminate to reveal the extent of talent. But they can also be a serious cause of blindness to far more pertinent facts and trends.
Why should more significance be given to Fierceness' SF, TGN, inconsistency and 3YO races against modest opposition. Compared to Sierra Leone's decent SP, TGN, unimpeachable consistency and 3YO wins over 7 graded stakes opponents?
The resumes of the two top entrants were miles apart where with regards to pertinent factors. But the importance given to SF and TGNs seems to signal those wedded to these numbers are inhibited from being objective and rationale.
Of the top 2 two KD entrants the more celebrated of the two finished 15th by 24L. The other with the far superior resume finished 2nd by a NS. This came as no surprise.
An entrant with a good race bad race pattern, with the bad race next in the pattern. From a barn with a record of 6 starters in 22 KDs with two wins was made the even money favorite. The obvious question is. What were the experts and wagering public thinking? There are somethings high Beyers and low TGN will not change.
Bob Baffert considered king of the Triple Crown has been represented by 9 post time favorites. Ony American Pharoah and Justify emerged as winners. What was the prospect of the trainer with the worst KD record wining the KD with a suspect and inconsistent entrant.
Will anything change in 2025 regarding how KD entrants are viewed? Unlikely! Beyer Figures TGN and idolization of certain trainers will again dominate. This will signal the continued unwillingness to acknowledge that the KD isn't a race that these factors are overly significant.
Sire line Trend:
Over the last 20 years the major sire lines i.e., Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer & A P Indy have only won 2 consecutive KD. The winners of the 2022 & 2023 KDs were from the Mr. Prospector sire line. The trend suggested that no entrant from the Mr. P sire line would win the 2024 KD. By the slimmest of margins, the trend lives on.
In a previous post I highlighted that the last five KDs were won by at odds of 65/1; 9/1; 12/1; 80/1 & 15/1. I then posed the following question. Has the period of longshot winners run its course? It clearly has not!
With top contenders in KD 2024 being from the Mr. Prospector sire line and neither expected to emerge the winner. I eliminated then from the top spot. The only wager I cashed was entrants from the other sire lines, on top of Sierra Leone for and exacta.
My $100 Future wager on T O Password didn't returns an ROI. However, I cannot complain as the colt outperformed the expectation of the naysayers. What if he was forwardly placed as he was in his two career starts? Closing from 18th to 5th equates to closing from mid pack to first. His performance justified what I detected when I watched the race that resulted in his invite to the KD.
I was never on the Fierceness bandwagon.
Forever Young was beyond amazing when you consider most horses that have come out of Meydan/Dubai usually are in the back of the field.
His sires line has always had courage in a stretch battle. I do think positions should have been switched. The first hit twisted him, he came back fighting. Who knows if he hadn’t had to fight so hard to stay upright he could have passed SL.
He was more amazing in defeat, while proving that the Sunday Silence dynasty will continue.
Wow, Honor Marie really came close to being scratched
I’m not going to type it all out – and I’m unable to paste-but apparently the head regulatory vet believed HM to be unsound. HM’s connections disagreed, and they settled it after a significant amount of diagnostic testing proved the colt sound
I’m so glad he got a chance to run….sort of
Congratulations are in order for the supporters of this space that made an ROI on the 150th running of the KD.
There were a few who were high on Mystik Dan and should have been well rewarded from his 16/1 post time odds.
Farrier Product Distribution, Inc. on Facebook has a really nice post to congratulate Todd Boston, who shod Thorpedo Anna and Mystik Dan. Sweet photos of the horses, and some good looking setups on TB feet. Dan appears to have good hooves – no epoxy needed to shore up hoof wall/nail holes, at least when they took the pictures posted.
Having lived through the 1973 Triple Crown, after becoming emersed in the sport as a young teen in 1972—I knew a lot about Secretariat…..the picture featured on this site of #1A— his Derby picture—represents two of the all-time great statement races, his Kentucky Derby over Sham, Our Native and Forego….and his other great statement was in the inaugural Marlboro Cup, over Riva Ridge and Cougar II…..both races came off of perplexing losses, in The Derby he set a track record that has stood for more than 50 years…..in his Marlboro Cup he set a world record defeating older horses for the first time…..of course there is his Belmont, over horses he beat over and over, and his 50 year world record ….but for my money Secretariat’s Derby was his greatest performance….and his Marlboro Cup sits a close 2nd…..I saw Spectacular Bid up close, he was otherworldly —but no horse, ever ran as many spectacular races as did Secretariat..
Respectfully Matthew W:
I believe Dr. Fager ran more spectacular races then Secretariat, plus he carried more weight. Secretariat never carried more then 126 lbs.
Problem with racing fans of today is that so many of them never heard of Dr. Fager, Damascus, & Swaps to name a few.
Since 1955 I have seen most of all the greats run. It is a privilege for me to say that.
I agree, at least to a point. I never saw either horse run, except on tape, but I have always admired Dr. Fager. They tried to beat him with rabbits, because there was no other way. His speed and heart were incredible. Secretariat may have had the most breathtaking raw talent, and this may be blasphemy on this site, but I can’t really know his heart. It may have been mismanagement or greed that got him beaten several times, but he did get beaten when things weren’t right. Having said that, seeing Secretariat’s iconic races is almost otherworldly. Needless to say, neither need to apologize.
To accuse Secretariat’s connections of greed is just total BS. Who are you to do that? I’ll bet you’ve never read any background on how they managed him, you’re just flinging arrows.
I believe it is documented that Secretariat’s 3 losses at 3 were due to running when he was not physically at his best. His retirement and syndication at 3 were a done deal, maybe for good reasons, but if a 4 year old campaign was in the offing, things may have been done differently, avoiding unnecessary losses.
Steve, thank you for such an excellent summation of the Kentucky Derby with a brief history of the winner, Mystik Dan which you had kept faith with throughout the Derby Trail. As much as I admire Kenny McPeek, I couldn’t see Mystik Dan winning the roses. good for him, and good for you. Great stuff.
When McPeek sent Daddy’s Lil Darling to run in the Epsom Oaks only to see the filly take fright prior to the start and run off due to thunder and lightning he blamed himself for not providing a pony, which is not common in European racing. Admiration.
Watching Swiss Skydiver win the Preakness Stakes was another feather in the cap to the mercurial McPeek – who else would have sent a filly out to compete in a Preakness Stakes loaded with Asmussen and Baffert colts and win?
McPeek’s eye in picking inexpensive runners that go on to win major races is legendary. Straight talking and down to earth, McPeek wins the 2024 Oaks and Derby double with the under appreciated Brian Hernandez Jr – it was about time, racing gods.
What a performance by Forever Young, in Phar Lapesque fashion, he almost pulled it off and should have been put up for second, no question. Imagine how thrilled all those children who were able to pat Forever Young were watching him drive to the finish. That’s how you get young people to live the dream of horse racing.
Chasing Freedom ran an excellent race and finished better than the top three from the stretch t the finish line but was too far back when the real racing started. the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga might see a reversal of fortune in that respect.
Mindframe looks like a future star with the Belmont Stakes possible and Pure Force not far behind him. Constitution will be well represented at the end of the year not forgetting Parchment Party, Speak Easy, and Born Noble to add to the above three.
Great work, Steve.
I agree that the story of this crop is far from written. Fierceness and Sierra Leone appeared to have potential to dominate, but neither did. The time was mediocre. The Derby was a very good race, but if there is a superstar out there, he may be among those you mentioned, or someone we have yet to notice.
Todd, we’ll get a better picture from the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes or when the Baffert’s Muth and ‘potential stars’ – Nysos, Maymun et al – reappear. The Fall races will be interesting to see where these Derby runners fit in the scheme of leading 3 year olds.
And Davids ….Japan shippers have done quite well, at Del Mar. …
Ah, good forward thinking, Matthew.
thanks Steve, you lend tidbits of knowledge behind the scenes, during and after that most would ever know about our racehorses, trainers and Owners. The one aspect I was hoping to see was a comment on CDI’s inaction to call an inquiry.
Thanks Mike this was just a recap. That would require an opinion column. I thought there at least should have been a stewards inquiry. Considering how close the finish was you could certainly make a case for a DQ. Perhaps the stewards did not to be in the position to take down Chad brown, Coolmore, and Peter Brandt to put up a Japanese horse. Just a wild conjecture half in jest.
True. Maybe it just wasn’t worth the potential travail, given they could get a clear, inches-by winner. To the general public, it just looked like two horses battling against each other.
Mugatu entering the Preakness doesn’t exactly get my heart racing.
The purse for the Preakness is being raised to $2million. You’d think that it would be enough to attract a full field. If a $2million dollar purse isn’t enough to bring a decent sized field together, I would question the wisdom of refurbishing Pimlico.
I can understand that the city leaders see a rejuvenated racetrack as a first step to revitalization of the city of Baltimore, but I think that they should start with the city and see how that goes first. I’ll admit that it has been 8-10 years since I was in Baltimore, but I didn’t like what I saw then. Bad signs. Get the city and schools back on track first.
isn’t the Preakness at Laurel this year?
No, you are out of luck it’s at Pimlico.
ah, 2025 & 2026. darn.
Goldencents got Mystik Dan into a good position…..Colonel John got him to kick away, at head of stretch…..and racing luck got his rivals bumping down the lane —I don’t think he wants ten furlongs….not vs the top tier….he looks like a Haskell horse!…
Thinking he can prevail with distance.
Yes, Matthew, that’s how I would see it as well. Often they do ok at 10f first up but after that, especially later in the year, their true sweet spot is usually a mile to 9f as you stated above.
Hi Steve,
In an earlier post you mentioned looking forward to football. In many ways the Preakness (and thereby the preeminence of Triple Crown races) is looking like college bowl games in the sense that star players often don’t wish to compete.
I recently saw that college bowls are looking at ways to incentivize player participation. I am not sure what the Preakness can do short of moving its race four weeks after the Derby. If not, you will likely get the Derby winner and top three-year-olds who, for whatever reason, skipped or weren’t eligible for the Derby.
What are your thoughts (and those of the rest of the readers)?
greg (Fan of Damascus)
To save the Triple Crown in a format that replicates the past ‘mostly’ I’d place the Preakness Stakes 3 – 4 weeks after the Belmont Stakes. Thereby, most of the big names will participate in the ‘new’ middle Jewel of the Triple Crown.
It’s plenty of time before the Travers Stakes as well. In its present format the Preakness Stakes is the ugly partner to the shimmering Derby and Belmont and will remain unloved for eternity should that be the case.
Change.
I’ve been observing the discussion of the non inquiry or DQ of Sierra Leone. I had no dog in the fight, but based on the “rules” a DQ was probably warranted. Steve has hinted at a possible stewards agenda, which there often seems to be. Going back to the DQ of Maximum Security, and without knowledge of Jason Servis’ debauchery, I always thought an agenda was at play there. Had Bill Mott’s horse committed a borderline foul, there is no way the stewards would have lucked a no name into an unearned Derby. Remember, Country House was not impacted by Maximum Security. As bettors, we are sometimes at the mercy of, or beneficiaries of agendas. I guess it’s just another part of the lore of racing. And by the way, I bet Mandoulin, but of course didn’t benefit from the subsequent DQ of Medina Spirit. It hasnever bothered me. My horse didn’t win.
Todd I like your attitude! I had $20 futures wagers, on Mandaloun ….and would’ve hit a big trifecta, were Medina Spirit dq’d…..I still got the trifecta but it would’ve said better, probably with a 26-1 shot on top–Medina gutted it out, and then he beat all of the three year olds again, in The Breeders Cup, I don’t think the picograms mattered ….
Of course the skin cream didn’t matter, and yet the agenda still exists 3 years later.
Todd, when you start bending rules things start falling apart as the saving goes “Oh what a Tangled Web we weave/When we practice to deceive” – it plays both ways if you take my meaning.
Mr. Haskin – I have been a sporadic poster in the past and did not post any thoughts this year. I can’t tell you how much I enjoy reading your stories and the comments this year. I still love and follow horse racing, and I really can’t compete with the expertise and knowledge in some of the comments. Also, I enjoy the respect that the posters here give each other.
With all that being said, THANK YOU for this forum.
Now, as far as my opinion goes, I remember my late sister’s words: the Derby goes to the luckiest, the Preakness to the fittest, but the Belmont goes to the best. Mystic Dan certainly had the luckiest trip and I always liked how American Pharoah was not the most fit in his derby win, but it did get him ready for the rest of the Triple Crown. I wish I had paid more attention to your comments and my inner thoughts about Mystic Dan regarding his prior races.
I also want to look at Honor Marie’s trip after his horrible start; he finished 8th. I remember Little Current finishing 5th in his derby and reading that it was a sneaky good effort that would set him up for the Preakness and Belmont.
Again, thank you for continuing to post your stories and opinions.
Thank you v \ery much Mary Lou. I really appreciate the kind words and happy you decided to comment. No competing here. All comments are welcome. Its not about knowledge its about a friendly community offering their thoughts and respecting everyone’s opinion.. Btw there is a Little Current column coming up. Hope to see you back.
Great recap Steve. Good call on Mystik Dan as well. Thanks to you I hit the exacta and triple. On to the Preakness!
Best,
Hammer
That is geat Hammer. Congratu;lations!
STEVE I been reading your KD reports for over 20years,I love it.Keep it up and thank you. THANK YOU THANK YOU ROGER
Thank you so much Roger. 20 years huh. I appreciate that. Lots of great racing and stories
Sounds like the Preakness isnt out after all for Dan. (who reminds me so much of a nice gelding we had named Dan down to the crooked blaze)
Also, once more it proves that the most important feature for a derby horse is tactical speed to make your own luck in that crazy field!
I disagree with the giving better numbers for horses traveling wider—-on dirt it is my experience that horses making wider moves do better than horses coming thru a tight hole, on TURF it matters more…MUCH more that a horse saves ground, but for whatever reason horses rallying inside on dirt do not seem to get that advantage, losing their kicks as they come inside….
That’s what Thoro-graph does, right? So o don’t see them as anything better than BSF if they take nothing else into account, including bad starts, trips, etc…
Matthew you chose an interesting race to critique Thoro-Graph affer three of the four fastest TG horses finished 1,2,3 and those three were on the best pattern, Lol. But seriously, there is wide and wide, TG wide is going into the first turn and into the second turn, not going wide at the top of the stretch where many horses save ground and swing out. The simple match is the farther you travel the more ground you have to cover. That is why they have staggered starts in human racing.. And TG takes in a lot more than just ground loss. That is why the big bettors and the horsemen pay big bucks for TG and Ragozin. Thy give you 10 tims the info Beyrs do
I didn’t mean to criticize Thorograph, I listen every Saturday to Jason Kevin’s Thorograph show—was just saying horses rallying inside ON DIRT—seem to not rally INSIDE, as well as horses rallying OUTSIDE—I DO think Mystik Dan was the PERFECT horse for hitting such a TINY SEAM—I was thinking Track Phantom would drift out, and ‘Dan would have a nice hole to shoot thru in ….but he held his spot, and Mystik Dan came thru the smallest of seams!…
Jason Levin…..
Steve, please pardon my intrusion but I had told Nelson that if I heard more about Kirbarkhan I would post.
The translation from Russian to English was that he was at the WinStar Rehab Center for “recovery on his left side and his breathing”.
Someone communicated who supposedly knows someone at WinStar that he was not there for training but to become acclimated the North American climate.
I read the notes from the DWC in which he finished 8th. He was moving along until 200 meters out when he weakened and dropped back. The notes for the two Saudi races were that he accelerated 400 meters out and won both of those races. A fan posted he was slammed into the rail. Watching a race replay I did see I think Defunded bumping him pretty hard.
I do not think either of his undercard race wins in the Saudi Cup qualifies him for the Breeders Cup. It is my understanding that he will need to qualify by winning a challenge Win and You’re In race. There are 5 upcoming qualifying races for the Classic.
Wishing him of course the very best in his recovery and training up for his next race. No trainer assigned yet.
Thanks for the update Lynda.
His two wins at Meydan were so promising that made him the 5 /2 favorite in the Dubai World Cup… obviously something went amiss in his 8th place finish there…
Kabirkhan would be a great addition to the handicap division … not only on dirt but also on turf races like his Sire … hope the media gives him more coverage.
You are most welcome Nelson.
Totally agree that he would be a great addition to the Handicap division.
Guess only time will tell.
I am now following a foreign connection to him on X.
If I hear or read more I will post on here.
One note on the Derby post parade–I was glad that they opted, for the first time in my memory, to only announce the names of the horses, trainers, and jockeys, not the owners. These days, with all the partnerships, if they’d announced the names of every owner, they’d still have been calling out names after the race was over.
I missed that but you’re totally correct. lol.
Steve, your writing skills are only rivaled by your handicapping skills. Great selection in picking Mystik Dan!
Thank you very much, Jim/
Steve. You’re the best! Thanks for sharing your expertise , knowledge, and excellent writing skills to bring happiness to a lot of people, including me. I am surprised that Sierra run at least wasn’t reviewed by Stewards. Re watching replays it seemed that the jockey on FY could not use his whip due to the tight quarters during a key portion of the stretch. Did FY jockey make a comment after the race?
Lastly, will you continue writing for the rest of triple crown events?
Thank you so much Jeff. I really appreciate that. You are not alone . It seems that is a big topic of conversation. They chose not to for whatever reason. Maybe they were trying to avoing having to DQ Chad Brown, Coolmore and Peter Brandt.
Steve, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. The stewards are there for one purpose to insure the rules of racing are abided by everyone.
Interesting Thoro-Graph Derby numbers
Forever Young third straight “1”
Sierra Leone second staight “1 1/2”
Mystik Dan second straight “3” (actually a 3 1/2 in Arkansas but still basically pairing up.)
Backwards numbers — 3-2-1 Forever Young three straight 1’s in three countries is remarkable.
Do you have one for T O Password?
Thanks
Yes he got a 3 3/4. Very close to the winner which is pretty amazing
Thank you
Yes he got a 3 3/4 almost the same as the winner which is pretty amazing
I think I am finally getting the hang of Thorograph.
Thoro-graph would only give a low number if the horse went wide, right? That’s all they really care about? So would Honor Marie’s number be high?
No.
If a horse runs the rail and the other horse goes 6W it’s obvious the horse on the rail does not run as far.
In a photo finish, the horse that ran further actually ran faster, the inside horse saved ground.
There’s a lot more to a race than that, so…
There’s a reason I used HM as an example
What’s your opinion for their next race?
Forever Young is a special horse. I look forward to seeing him again in the future.
Steve, thanks for a great recap and a series of articles that made the Derby season even more enjoyable. Thanks, also, to the posts by people who love horse racing as much as I do.
As for some of the analogies we thought of to other horses: Endlessly was not another Animal Kingdom. Fierceness was more like Bellamy Road than like Spend a Buck. Mystik Dan reminded us of the Bo-rail winners. I had thought Honor Marie would be out of the money like another wise guy horse, Known Agenda, but the way he was banged at the start brought to mind Shared Belief in the BC Classic. And from now on when we see a horse that likes to lug in, who isn’t going to think of Sierra Leone?
Here’s hoping Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone continue their rivalry in the 10F Belmont and the Travers as a kind of alternate Triple Crown.
Thank you David. I appreciate it.
Well said maestro, I did not like the chances of Fierceness. He is a horse OMO that has to have everything go his way otherwise he will toss in a poor performance. With a 20 horse field incidents always will happen. I believed before & still do that Sierra Leone was the best horse in the race. He probably ran about a mile and 3/8 with his wide trip.
Until the Derby brass come to their senses & shorten the field to a max 14 horses we are always going to have bumping, slamming & horses horses being compromised. I pray that there will never be an horrific accident on the track. But is it inevitable? Almost happened when Tiz the Law won & was disqualified.
Churchill Downs & the greedy people who control the number of horses that run are all about the money. About $220 million dollars bet on this race, are you kidding. Not counting the parking, cost of getting in the track & the food & beverage concessions.
Thwe historic value of the Derby is forever gone, its all about money now.
I miss the pageantry, the nostalgia of the race plus all of the great connections who made the Derby historic.
I am very greatful that we had no tragedies on the track.
Thank you Steve for writing a nice closeout on the Derby……..
In my opinion, the breeding industry has ruined the KD. Races with once proud histories have become “prep” races for the all important derby. The point system has only exacerbated the situation. When horses were actually racehorses, they weeded themselves out. The fields were also more strung out, and safer, when milers ran who now don’t qualify. It has also rendered the Preakness irrelevant except as a vehicle to a Triple Crown, and more breding riches. Racing was better in the hands of sportsmen and women and not breeding conglomerates.
The 20-horse field makes the Kentucky Derby unique and causes payoffs at times that are like cashing lottery tickets. It’s the only race of the year that I know of in America with more than 14 horses. I like it. I would never want to see a horse or jockey injured because of it. They have the new 20-horse starting gate. Even though I came out on the wrong end of that 3-horse photo finish, I thought Saturday was a terrific day of racing. I don’t like the NBC coverage. They don’t show the horses in the paddock or the post parades for the undercard races. I prefer the TVG/FanDuel coverage for the races that they are allowed to show. Looking forward to next year. One of these years I’m going to get it just right.
Tiz The Law didnt win; he was 2nd to authentic. You are thinking of Maximum security and Country House.
Hey Steve, I have not heard anything from Repole or Pletcher’s on Fierceness performance on Saturday. Did I miss it? I feel like Repole especially is never lost for words.
Been looking myself. He put someth\hing on his Twitter page b \ut didnt say much. What can you say other than the horse ran a terrible race. If he runs lightx\s out next time we’ll be right back we started in the Travers.
he’s never at a loss for words… unless he has no excuse.
Diana, he’s in love with his own voice. Must be loudest in any room!
I would call this the perfect race recap. The Steve Haskin recap of the 2024 Kentucky Derby will certainly stand the test of time.
I’ve noticed that Brian Hernandez has been having a very good year even before his Oaks and Derby Double. Winning at 17%. He has long been one of my favorite riders when I’m playing the Kentucky circuit. I’ve noticed for a long time that Hernandez and Corey Lanerie both like to take the rail route when they can. It was certainly the winning move for Brian Hernandez and Mystik Dan on Saturday. If they didn’t get through that very narrow opening going around the far turn it might have been an entirely different story. Maybe Sierra Leone and Forever Young battling it out down the stretch. I’ll always wonder if Hernandez and Lanerie learned that move from Calvin Borel. The Hernandez ride on Thorpedo Anna was easier and much less risky. I think that Kenny McPeek probably told Hernandez to go to the lead with Thorpedo Anna because he knew he had the best horse. A “Grizzly Bear” as he called her.
People see races differently based on which horse or horses they are involved with. I’m sure that the supporters of Forever Young wanted to see Sierra Leone DQ’d. I needed Sierra Leone for a fairly big win. I don’t think that the contact warranted a disqualification. For me, this Derby will always be a “what if” situation. What if Mystik Dan didn’t get through on the rail? What if Forever Young and Sierra Leone weren’t leaning on each other for most of the stretch? I only needed a couple of more inches. Familiar gripes from horseplayers. I need to turn the page and move on. The Preakness in 2 weeks. I’m hoping for a good field.
Thanks Tommy. Hernandez is a vey smart rider and he is red hot now. Two fantastic rides. The Derby was a great race filled with :”what ifs.”
Tommy, this Forever Young supporters did not want to see Sierra Leone taken down.
All along Sierra Leone and Forever Young as well as Fierceness were at the top of my list
It was a remarkable and a thrilling Derby to watch. Had I listened to Steve I probably would have replaced Fierceness with Mystic Dan.
The Japanese would not have wanted Forever Young take second by default either. They are very proud and honored by the performance of all 3 of their horses.
Cheers for each and every horse in Derby. It made for a very remarkable historic 150th Anniversiary.
Mr Steve, you’ve not only baked the cake, iced and sliced it—— you’ve even blown out the candles! On the most memorable Derby of our Lifetime(s)
Thank you and may God Bless You!!
Wow did you just make that up? LOL M y birthday was last month , but I will have tp remember to do that next year. Thank you very much!
Steve, thanks for an incredible recap of the most exciting Kentucky Derby in recent memory. I appreciate your description of the courageous Forever Young and the boxing analogies with Sierra Leone, as well as the fairy tale story of Mystik Dan. But really, I’ve appreciated all of your writings this year, especially those during the dreary winter months. They all lead up brilliantly to a Kentucky Derby for the ages.
I really appreciate it, Dutch. Thank you very much. A certain sadness its over.
Steve – thanks for a gem of a summary. You always check all the boxes so effortlessly for your readers and leave us both well informed and inspired every time. This was a race to remember, even more so now that I know more of Mystic Dan’s feel good backstory. He ran with a lot of heart with two freight trains bearing down on him and rightfully earned the roses and the accolades. Congratulations to Kenny McPeek
and all the connections for preparing their champion will for his moment. Congratulations also to Brian Hernandez Jr for his victorious rides aboard the twin McPeek’s (great title, btw). He was the first rider for my beloved filly Rachel Alexandra but it was eventually Calvin Borel who was to unlock her greatness. It’s great seeing Hernandez get his own well deserved dues and to see his beaming smile after the winner was announced.
Thank you very much. You cant ride a much better race than that’
What a wonderful write up. Thanks for all the insight. Mystic Dan was my pick (I didn’t see your previous article) for the last two weeks and he made me a couple dollars last Saturday. I can’t wait to see what the summer races bring for this group of 3 year olds.
I appreciate it Jo Anne. Thank you.
Steve, GREAT JOB.
Now just get hold of some Hollywood producer and see if they can make a movie of this race from the way you described the race, which is fantastic.
Only knock on this race is the final time.
As for Fierceness, its my take that he looked very quiet before the race and there are reports from their inside connections that his last work was not impressive.
I would like to see a race between the top finishers on a track that did not have so much rain leading to this derby.
No knock on MD, he is the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner.
Steve, the Derby is never over until YOU have written about it. Wonderful wrap-up! I especially loved hearing about how Anna and Dan challenged each other in a workout — and yes, it would be lovely if they could be bred together after their racing careers are (safely) over. I think I may have just come up with suggestion for the name, too — Anna and Dan or Dan and Anna.
Thanks Ms B and for all your contributions
I’m so sorry. I need to make a correction to my comments. On Fire Baby was not Mr. McPeeks horse in 5he 2013 Apple Blossom. Another trainer. My apologies .
Thank you.
Hello Steve
After reading your wonderful recap I realised that my fondest wish for this Derby, namely a horse and his human connections (trainer, jockey, owner-breeders etc) whose victory would remind me of everything I love about horse racing, did indeed come true. When it comes to writing about thoroughbreds and their people, you are a true artist. Thank you so much .
Dawn
I appreciate it Dawn. Thank you
Wow, wow and more wow. It was a race! Again terrific job putting it down for all of us to relive again and keep in our memories. Just was so impressed with all the horses.
The Japanese horses were a force and I hope they know we all love them and hope to see them back again in BC. and other future races.
Congratulations to Team McPeek and to Brian Hernandez.. and Mystik Dan. I’ve been a Goldencents fan for a very long time! Saw both his BC mile races.
In 2013 I watched Mr. McPeeks On Fire Bab win the Apple Blossom. She was of course, my favorite, a grey. And saw Brian win on Ft Larned at the BC at Santa Anita. Impressive jockey and what a win that was. Your writings bring back so many wonderful memories. Thank you. And safe racing. For all.
What a great article about a great race! Thanks, Steve.
Thank you Jerre.
Great wrapup, Steve – by far the best one I’ve read! For once I didn’t have an empty wallet after the Derby! I’ve been on Mystik Dan from way back, and along the way I was also encouraged by some of the things you wrote about him. The main (probably a little silly) reason is, back in 2013 my husband and I were at Santa Anita the day Goldencents won the SA Derby. Early that morning we had an opportunity to meet him up close, and since then I’ve closely followed his racing career, and then his progeny. He’s been one of those special horses for me.
This is the happiest I’ve been after a Derby since American Pharoah! Brian Hernandez’s great ride, Thorpedo Anna the day before, and at least from what I’ve heard, no serious injuries. What a great weekend, and again (for a change), definitely not an empty wallet! And a final thought: the Japanese will be back!
Thank you Beth. That wasn’t silly at all. I have my favorite horses/sires and favor them all the time…and write about them..and bet on their offspring. Been doing it since 1968. Congratualation. Not bad for a $10,000 stallion.
Steve,
You really out did yourself with this analysis as you pretty much hit all the high and lows of the race. When post position were drawn I was at first disappointed with Mystik Dan (MD) draw as I had wanted him more to the middle of the pack (definitely not to the very outside) but as the days went by and started playing in my head aon how the race would develop I grew to liking the position better and better. My reasoning was I figured with Dornach on the rail and MD sandwiched between 2 closers he should get a pretty good start and be able to follow Dornach around to first turn ( funny as that was Mc Peek’s thinking was too as he said so in a post race interview and was wondering what happen to him ???) . One thing I also figured out Mystik Dan was not afraid of being inside of horses and loved the rail (similar to Rich Strike). Some youtube pundits and derby analysis had him pegged as a closer or as a mudder because of his Southwest Stakes (SS)race and I am thinking to myself … “NO” he is a stalker and you have to have the ability and athleticism to be able run that fast and in the Derby I wanted him 6 to 10 lengths behind the leaders going around the first turn which he was. Hernandez ride was brilliant and as we know the rest is history. The other horse I liked was Just Steel just because of the way Lukas brought him up to the race but I think 2 things did him in. One, was Dornach poor start and the other was this horse was too headstrong wanting to get to the lead. It looked like Asmussen was trying to hold him back at first but with Dornach breaking slowly and not getting to the front on the rail he just had to relent to the horses wishes which unfortunately was his undoing. He didn’t “bounce” but done in by the early fractions he is not a frontrunner and more of a stalker. Lukas needs to find and easy spot for him like Ohio Derby or Oklahoma Derby.
As far as Fierceness, I tried to warn everybody in the beginning this is a Todd Pletcher trained horse and he has a hard time getting “frontrunners” to go 1 1/4 miles … If he couldn’t get Life’s Good to run with Flightline for 1 1/4 mile what chance would he have with Fierceness especially with what I thought was a poor post position draw of 17 as it made the race longer for him !!! Enough said on him, other than I think Pletcher should concentrate on making Fierceness a “miler” … there is no shame in that and he shows “Brillance” in that department. He is one dimensional !!!
As far as the 3 closers Sierra Leone (SL), Catching Freedom (CF) and Honor Marie (HM). alway felt SL was the fastest, CF was next and HM was runner up. I thought SL and CF drew great post positions as it would make it easier to get to the rail and save ground early in the race and less chance of getting ping pong like the trip that HM got…. BTW his race was BRUTAL !!!
Biggest mystery in the was Just a Touch he was sitting pretty and pretty much were I wanted him to be on the early backstretch and then just gave way. I would go over him with a fine tooth comb and if they find nothing then maybe he just woke up on Derby day with a headache (nothing like a shot of Bute and good night’s rest can take care of ) or maybe “bounce” anyone? Reslilence and Stronghold made big moves on the turn coming into the stretch but both just flattened out !!! Just not good enough ?!?!? Maybe both need more time to develop. Would pick my spots for those 2. Lastly Forever Young and TO Password… as much as I wanted to get on their bandwagon I just couldn’t but they made a believers out me now with this race. One thing I have learned about the Japanese trainers they know how to put a “BASE” on their horses.
Now onto the Preakness were it looks like maybe all the Derby trainers with their Derby horses are conceding to Baffert and his horses. Sort of reminds me of a scene from a Mel Brooks movie called Blazing Saddles (Hilarious movie if you haven’t seen it). There is a scene in there were Alex Karras plays a character named “Mongo” and he comes into this town riding a Brahma Bull and all the town folks start scattering in fear.
To all have a great week and to you Steve you are the BEST !!!
I love your Mongo analogy! LOL.
Thanks… “Mongo, just a pawn in the game of life! “
Thanks. That was a pretty darn good recap yourself. Well done.
Learned from the Master!!!
Nice recap Steve. Thank you for all of the informative articles along the Derby trail!
I chose Mystik Dan because analyses said he ran well on mud, and rain was predicted…
Also, had heard that Fierceness did not run well on mud…
Even if, in the end, the dirt seemed damp…
I just watched the most adorable replay of the Kentucky Derby with plushies and Travis’ race call.
You can find it on X (Twitter) at kakeloppi.
I can barely find You Tube!!
Thanks Lynda
LOL.
I have the opposite problem, finding things on You Tube.
Best Derby as a race in quite a while, fitting for the 150th. Steve balances all the high points– the homebred underdog (my favorite sort of winner), the courage of Forever Young, and the other 3YOs who make up the whole story. Thanks as always, sir.
An absolute fantabulous race. I am also happy that there were no reported fatalities at least up to now.
“He’d run on glass if you asked him to.”
That line put a choke in my throat and a tear in my eye. I believe it. Steve, you never fail to get to the hearts of the horses in your stories. Thank you.
In Brian Hernandez’s interview in BH, he said, “I was more proud of the horse more than anything.” I believe that, too.
The connections have so much to be proud of in Mystik Dan… and Thorpedo Anna. I hope they’re also proud of the horsemanship in their operation. The right horses were in the right hands, no doubts.
I love the two stablemates pushing each other to best form. So, when they’ve both stood on their plates for the last time, can we PLEASE breed them together? It will still result in no inbreeding through 5 generations. 😉
Kenny McPeek, I see what you’re doing… and I like it! You too, Steve Haskin!
Great recap, as usual. Wonder if, when he goes to stud, Americans will use him or if he’ll be another we miss out on and Japan snatches him up.
And, as a Hallmark movie moment, it would be ❤️❤️ if Thorpedo Anna was bred to him 😁 (I have no idea if that match is possible or worthwhile)
This is the recap that I’ll save. It’s fantastic.
My money was on Forever Young and it will be again if he returns for the Breeders’ Cup.
Thank you Kellye. I sure hope heh comes back. What a tough, gutsy horse!
Great writing Mr. Haskin! You’re at height of your powers!
Thanks very much Mike.
Great write up as always. Both were exciting races this year.
Thank you Judith. Great weekend
Hi Steve
Thanks for your recap of the Derby. Every word speaks to your passion and your writing skill.
I was wondering Steve, if you have a sense about why Sierra Leone wasn’t moved down to third from second due to his clear impediment of Forever Young.
I wish I lived closer to New York (for a number of reasons.) If I did I would head to Saratoga for this year’s Belmont. At 1 /14 miles, it will really feel like a rematch for many of the Derby entrants.
Thanks again Steve for sharing your words and thoughts with us. It was great to have a Derby that really was the greatest two minutes of sports.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Thanks Greg, there was no jockey objection and perhaps the stewards wanted no part in possibly having to DQ Chad Bown, Coolmore, and Peter Bandt and put up a Japanese horse.
The final chapter of this years Kentucky Derby has been written by the only person who can paint a picture with words. There are many others who try, but there is only one Steve Haskin! Thank you Steve for all your time and effort over the last few months, it is much appreciated.
On a side note, do you find SL legs in the photo a little strange or is it just me?
Thank you very much JR, Not sure which photo you mean but his legs are always stange just watching him run.
Mr Haskin, does SL have higher chance of injury due to his gait?
I wouldnt think so. But sometimes paddling will catch up to a horse. But not injure him, maybe jus minor issues. Not 100% sure.
Thanks Mr. Haskin.
The photo finish, looks like his legs are crossed.
SL front left leg seems hyperextended.
Brilliant recap, Steve!
I’m even more frustrated by Honor Marie’s trip than ever, but like I said earlier, the Derby often tells us more about the losers than the winners
Fortunately he’s unscathed – I’m looking forward to the Belmont!
A marvelous re-cap, Steve. Leave it to you to nose out the storylines and weave them into a tale as special as the race itself.
Thank you very much Betsy and James. I really appreciate it,
Mystik Dan was actually in front by close to a half length but was out-bobbed, on the wire—it would’ve been a heartbreaker, to take a Bob like that—his rider didn’t see them until the shadow of the wire…..all in all a great race, all in all a great blog, thanks to your deep diving, into a perplexing Derby run up—along with your constant readers, to steal a phrase from Mr King, who keep this blog interesting, exciting, intelligent and appreciative of it’s author ..
Well done Steve. I really enjoy your recaps . Besides the race itself the best takeaway for me is all of the signs that racing’s future looks bright. Biggest tv audiences since 1989, record handle and a huge crowd. Now on to the Preakness.
Steve, you captured the heart of this memorable race. I loved your description of Mystik Dan working with Thorpedo Anna–and your salute to Forever Young, one of the gutsiest, most endearing horses I’ve ever seen–and the title. Bravo!
Thank you
That was the absolute best summary of one of the most exciting races I have ever seen. I am so glad to share the Derby prep seasons with you and your awesome writing; it is truly one of the best and most enjoyable parts of my wagering year! Thank you so much! I also very much enjoy all of the great commentators here as well. Now, besides the rest of the racing year, I am looking forward to Football, which will get me to next January/February timeframe, where we can do it all again for Derby 2025!!!
Thank you very much Biggy. I apprreciate it. Agree , time took foward to football. Belmont at Spa aint too shabby either.
Biggy, amen to the comment that Steve has the best summary.
I have read quite a few over the past few days and Steve’s towers over all of them.
Absolutely, Lynda; I really admire great writers; it is a gift!
The eyes well up as the finale plays on our emotions. You, Steve Haskin, as the composer of the symphony for this epic Derby saga have written a beautiful conclusion to this year’s Derby Trail. Even though I didn’t cash any Derby tickets (shame on me for not listening in Professor Haskin’s class), I felt privileged to witness one of the best Kentucky Derby finishes of all time. Truly a memorable race and summed up so artfully by our favorite scribe.
Thank you, Steve, for this closing chapter and all the other wonderful chapters on this year’s Derby journey. One thing’s for sure…. we’re all winners when reading Haskin.
That is very kind of you Dewey. Thank you so much! There are so many elements to this Derby we will be talking about it for a long time. And ALL the horses over the weekend came back safe and sound. Bravo!!
I went down to Los Al and cashed my winnings tickets…my Honor Marie ticket list, but I reversed my original play—abd ended up betting twice as much on Mystik Dan than Honor Marie, and I watched ‘Dan the entire way around, I had no idea about the bumping, I was running errands for my wife….and watched the Derby on my phone, when I finally saw the stretch head-on it became clear to me that the two bumper-cars should have run one/two, but in the end you make your wagers and from there you hope for good luck—Mystik Dan was smiled upon, by lady luck! And while Forever Young certainly took the worst of it—had Sierra Leone kept a straight path there’s really no telling who would’ve won that battle….
Twin McPeeks!
Masterful writing, Steve. A great summation of an exciting Derby. You’re the best! “Twin McPeeks”–vintage Haskin.
Thanks so much.
Oh my, tears reading this.
Love the title,Twin McPeeks, perfect!
Been looking forward to this all day.
Thank you!
Thank you very much, Lynda. I guess the few young people who read this wont get it. LOL