Did We See a Leading Changing of the Guard?
Did We See a Leading Changing of the Guard?
By Steve Haskin
Leading Change, left with Manny Franco aboard, defeats Napoleon Solo in the 2026 Travers Stakes at Saratoga.
Before we can fully understand and appreciate what we saw in Saturday’s Travers Stakes, we have to look back at how we got here. And when you really think about the number of winding roads on this year’s Triple Crown trail and the number of travelers that got stranded along the way, it should be no surprise that the last one standing in the winner’s circle jumped on at the last minute.
There is no doubt Leading Change is a classy, talented colt who came along in the right year when nothing should surprise you. When Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo captured the Belmont Stakes to clearly establish himself as the leading 3-year-old in the country, could anyone imagine that a horse making his career debut the following day would wind up beating him in the Travers?
To understand just where the 3-year-old division was this summer, let’s go back to when things looked pretty normal and promising, with 2-year-old champion Ted Noffey a legitmate early Derby favorite. Then he was gone. Then came major 2-year-old stakes winners Paladin, Napoleon Solo, and Further Ado, followed by new late-developing hot shots Chief Wallabee, Class President, Nearly, The Puma, and Iron Honor, and exciting newcomers like Canaletto, Reagan’s Honor, and Powershift. And how about Bob Baffert’s seemingly powerful arsenal of Brant, Cherokee Nation. Potente, Litmus Test, Plutarch, and Boyd. We even had a horse, Emerging Market, win the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby in only his second career start.
Of all those promising colts, only The Puma, Napoleon Solo, and Emerging Market made it to the Travers, and of those, only Emerging Market made it to the Derby. Of Baffert’s six horses, only Potente and Litmus Test made it to the Derby and they went off at odds of 17-1 and 27-1, respectively.
By Travers time, however, it looked as if all the pieces were finally in place to get most of the best 3-year-olds in the starting gate. We had the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, along with Haskell and Jim Dandy winners. But this was 2026, and it should have come as no surprise that the one beating them all was a horse with two lifetime starts who, as we mentioned, was still unraced when Golden Tempo won the Belmont. And he wasn’t even the lightly raced horse most people thought had the biggest chance to win. That was the spectacular Curlin Stakes winner Sea Strike, who looked to be in great shape most of the race, only to call it a day at the eighth pole.
And finally, we had one of the most consistent horses all year, Renegade, simply not showing up and failing to put in his big run that has been his trademark since last year’s Remsen Stakes. Golden Tempo, ran well to be third, but didn’t have the closing kick we saw in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. Napoleon Solo looked to have the race in control after setting a modest pace, but like in the Haskell, he ran hard the whole way but couldn’t hold on at the end. The rest just went through the motions.
Normally, I would go back and recount the Travers winner’s history, except in this case there wasn’t much to recount. We do know that he turned in a sensational performance winning his career debut at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs in a brilliant 1:21 1/5 before scoring a hard-fought victory in the Indiana Derby.
I do find Leading Change’s pedigree fascinating. All anyone knows about him is that he is a half-brother to $2.7 million dollar earner Shedaresthedevil, the 2020 Kentucky Oaks winner who sold as a broodmare in 2022 for $5 million. So, you have a colt whose sister is worth millions as a racehorse and producer, and he is by super stallion Gun Runner, who earned just under $16 million as a racehorse. But here is where it gets interesting; where the mystery of bloodlines becomes so intriguing.
Leading Change’s dam Starship Warpspeed won just one of her eight starts, finishing out of the money six times, with her only victory coming in a $40,000 claiming race in the mud. She sold as a yearling for a meager $5,000 and was pinhooked at 2 for $39,000. In addition to her several successful runners as a broodmare, she produced five foals who made a total of five starts, with three of them unraced.
Starship Warpspeed’s dam Andria’s Forest was unraced and had offspring sell at the sales for $4,000, $5,500, $9,000, and $10,000.
Andria’s Forest’s dam, Andriana B. won one of eight starts, seven of them out of the money, with her last five starts in $10,000 claiming races. She sold at public auction five times — twice as a yearling for $3,200 and $16,000 and once as a 2-year-old for $23,000. And as a broodmare, she sold for $2,600 and RNA’d for $6,000.
Andriana B.’s dam, Sign Language raced five times with one victory and four out of the money performances and sold as a broodmare for $8,500.
Going back one more generation, Leading Change’s first five dams had a combined record of 30 starts, three wins, a second, and a third, finishing out of the money 25 times.
So, if there is one compelling fact about this year’s undefeated Travers winner, as well as his half-sister, Shedaresthedevil, it is that they have evolved from a female family of submediocrity into millionaires. Because a couple of those mares did produce stakes winners, it also shows that when in comes to breeding, you don’t need to be successful on the racetrack to leave your mark as a broodmare.
That is the constant fascination of racing and breeding, just as it is a horse winning the Travers off two lifetime starts. As messy as this race looked visually at times, with Renegade again taking the worst of it at the start, Silent Tactic being eased, and several others simply not firing, it still takes a special horse to pull this off, as well as a special performance; one that makes the colt’s future all the more exciting.
There’s a New Shirreffs in Mayberry
There were several other races on the Travers card that had people stirring with excitement, including the two filly and mare stakes, the seven-furlong Ballerina Stakes won by Ways and Means and the 1 1/8-mile Personal Ensign Stakes won by Fully Subscribed, both in dominating fashion, both trained by Chad Brown, both owned by Klaravich Stable, and both ridden by Flavien Prat. But the one race that had people still talking long after its conclusion was Englishman’s tour de force victory in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes.
Sent off at odds of 2-5 in the five-horse field, Englishman broke like the proverbial bullet and just kept getting stronger while posting, for him, easy fractions of :23 and 45 2/5. That opening quarter enabled him to come home his final five-eighths in a spectacular :57 2/5 to post a 3 3/4-length victory in 1:20 3/5, just a fifth of a second off his own track record set in his most recent start, the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes on June 6. By comparison, the other two Grade 1 stakes run that day at seven furlongs — the Forego and the Ballerina — were run in 1:22 2/5 and 1:22, respectively.
Englishman, “The fastest horse in America,” just misses the track record in the 2026 Allen Jerkens Stakes.
We just need to address one aspect of the Englishman story that has been overlooked. There is no doubt that Cherie DeVaux has done a fantastic job turning this colt into one of the best sprinters we have seen in many years. But there are two other people who have played a significant role in his story early on.
The first to spot this colt and strongly believe he was special were trainer John Shirreffs, who passed away suddenly this past February, and April Mayberry, who teamed up with Shirreffs to buy horses for owner Lee Searing, with Mayberry breaking and training them.
“John truly loved Englishman when he saw him,” said Mayberry, who signed the sales slip for $400,000. “He was his favorite at the sale. He was so muscular, with a big hip and shoulder. You knew he would be a sprinter. We went to look at him three or four times, and I remember John saying, “We’re getting that colt for Lee.” John kept in touch with him when I was breaking him and often visited the farm. We had several good babies for Lee that year and at that time no one knew who was getting who, but they get pretty well distributed.
“He definitely was one of my favorites at the farm. He was so laid back and classy, I said, ‘I can ride this one.’ Everybody — the grooms, riders, and assistants — all fell in love with him. You could light a firecracker next to him and he would just stand there. He always wanted to please you. A horse’s temperament can change from yearling to 2-year-old to 3-year-old, but he was just as he was as a yearling. All class.”
Shirreff’s wife Dottie, who was also working with Searing at the sale, added, “John judged horses by first impression. Are you intrigued and impressed? Do they grab you or not? Do they have that ‘wow’ factor? Englishman had ‘that look.’ He had it all and was John’s pick of the sale. He saw him at April’s and kept up on how he was doing and training. He would work together with April on the CRK (Searing’s stable name) horses, even though he knew some would be going to other trainers.”
Dottie said that John “adored Allen Jerkens” and had many special moments with him that he cherished when he was stabled in New York; hanging with him in the afternoons and going to dinner with him and his wife. “Seeing Englishman win the Allen Jerkens would have been so special for John,” Dottie said. “And he would have been so proud of this colt.”
Everyone was well aware how fast Englishman was after romping in his first two starts at seven furlongs and six furlongs, respectively, winning by 7 1/4 and 7 1/2 length in winning times of 1:21 1/5 and 1:08 3/5.
Stretching out in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile, not at his best distance, he blazed through opening fractions of :44 1/5 and 1:08 flat, but couldn’t hold off Bob Baffert’s highly touted colt Crude Velocity.
Shortened up to seven furlongs in the Grade 1 Wood Stephens Stakes, he not only turned the tables on Crude Velocity, he annihilated him by almost six lengths. After running him into the ground with a scorching :43 4/5 he drew off and stopped the teletimer at 1:20 2/5, equaling the Saratoga track record set 48 years ago. Then came Saturday’s Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens.
As we said, DeVaux has done a masterful job with Englishman, but credit must also go to John Shirreffs and April Mayberry for laying the foundation for what people now call “The fastest horse in America.”
Photos courtesy of NYRA/Coglianese Photos and Skip Dickstein.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
There is an article over at DRF today about NYRA thinking of cutting the Belmont Stakes from a mile and a half to a mile and a quarter. NYRA President Dave O’Rourke says it will be considered. If not next year, maybe the next. Just when most of the fans were looking forward to the Belmont getting back to the mile and a half.
O’Rourke says that breeders are breeding for shorter distances now. OK.
But I see a deeper darker reason. You may remember that the Preakness is being moved back a week. Which would be 3 weeks after the Derby and just two weeks until the Belmont. NYRA doesn’t want to move the Belmont. O’Rourke says that they don’t want to compete with the U.S. Open on Father’s Day weekend. OK again.
Let’s see if that 3rd race in the NYRA/Churchill series gets changed to a mile and a half.
Is that the Matt Winn? I really don’t remember.
I can really see the Preakness getting squeezed out. Becoming a race for the second rate 3-year-olds. Similar to the Ohio Derby and Indiana Derby. Baltimore getting stuck with that $800million White Elephant.
Things are changing and changing fast. Just like baseball. Everybody knew certain numbers. 714 meant something. 2130 meant something. I guess that 56games in a row still means something. But do today’s ballplayers play 56 games in a row? IDK. I don’t follow baseball anymore. Putting a runner on second base in extra innings like a women’s softball game and changing the name of my favorite team to the Guaradinos were the last straws. What is the homerun record now? I’d punch it up on the internet, but I really don’t care.
Racing could alienate old-timers like me. Maybe that’s the point. I remember when my wife was still alive and we were still living in California. We went to Santa Anita on Santa Anita Derby Day. My wife usually only joined me at the races once a year. Usually for our annual trip to Del Mar. But she went with me that year. WE were standing in line waiting for the gates to open. I was always at the track early. I loved the atmosphere to work on my Form. My wife was looking around and commented that we were the youngest ones there. She wasn’t too far from the truth. I pointed out a kid that seemed to be there with his grandparents. Sure, some younger folks showed up around post time. But the track was full of mostly older people.
That looks like NYRA and Churchill’s goal to protect their bottom-lines. Attract a younger crowd. A crowd that couldn’t care less about history. Even of the Preakness and Pimlico become collateral damage.
BTW, with this “New Belmont”, does Secretariat’s track record still stand? Wait a minute. If the Belmont cuts to a mile and a quarter, I guess it won’t matter.
Tommy
It’s a chess match between Churchill, Maryland and the NYRA with the racing fans getting checkmate!!!
Twenty Del Mar Fururities, his first one is still alive (Silver Charm, 1996)…
Hughes won nicely in the Del Mar Futurity on a hot and humid day. LOOKS like he can go 1 !/16. Will see in the BC JUVENILE.
Nicely indeed DTS.
Hughes win was the twentieth (20th) Del Mar Futurity for Baffert. Of those 20 only four made it to the Derby and the last five ended up being sprinter/milers or injured early.
However Hughes being by Into Mischief out of a mare inundated with stamina genes make him adept at the Classic distances on paper.
Look at this list of dream team of Classic damsires: Union Rags, Point Given, Caerleon, and General Assembly.
Hughes progression winning at 5, 6 and now 7 furlongs, always drawing off rather easily, signals he got speed and stamina to spare… 1:22 2/5 is a very fast time for Del Mar.
If Hughes remains healthy and resilient to Baffert’s regime he could be one of the leading 3-year-olds next year. Overcoming running in the BC Juvenile would be another big hurdle though.
Anyway, in my eyes Hughes was better than The Good Life today but Shug is coming back strong with the sensational U S S Valor who looked better than both speed wise. Let’s see how they continue to evolve and hope they can endure the hard road to the Triple Crown series.
Nelson,
I agree with you that Hughes ran better than The Good Life today. USS Valor looked very good yesterday . We will see how he looks going 2 turns. My concern with Hughes is he is by Into Mischief…. If Baffert can get him to rate or get him to come from way off the pace I feel will be a Kentucky Derby horse. If not I think his limitation will be 1 1/16. Again JMO !!!
One other thing Hughes was sweating before the race and very much after… glad he will have over a month and half to recover. I wonder if the heat affected Baffert ‘s other entry in the race. Baffert said after the race he was disappointed with his effort .
Hi Nelson
I completely agree with your assessment of Hughes. After he won the Best Pal Stakes, I posted a comment stating that he and Inshallah appear to be the two best colts on the West Coast. Hughes’ impressive win in the Del Mar Futurity validated my assessment. For those that give credence to the X-Factor large heart gene, Hughes “could” be a carrier of the gene. His dam’s sire, Union Rags, follows the zig-zag pattern back to Secretariat.
Hopefully, Hughes stays healthy and we’ll see him in the BC Juvenile.
I’m looking forward in seeing how Inshallah performs in the American Pharoah Stakes. By hot sire Flightline, out of a Medaglia D’Oro mare, this colt has a ton of stamina influence on his dam’s side. He’s certainly one to watch moving forward.
Steve—having heard Shug was contemplating retirement… I’m sure USS Valor will keep him at the barn! There was another impressive maiden winner yesterday at The Spa…Asmussen trained, and I cannot tell you how surprised I was to hear that the LAST Saratoga maiden winner to win The Derby was in 1987, a filly named Winning Colors! But then I nearly fainted, the last COLT maiden winner at Saratoga to win The Derby….was in 1961—-sixty-five years ago….Decidedly, a CAL-BRED…..a track that rates #1 by a mile…..and a Derby winning maiden is that rare…
(heck, even Bay Meadows had a maiden winner that won The Derby! 1968 Majestic Prince..)..
What about Big Brown? You didnt specify dirt. Enough have run 2nd . Always Dreaming, Super Saver, Sea Hero. Runnerup and Preakness winner Exaggerator broke his maiden. If there is anything thst concerns me its his 105 Beyer.
Concerned in what way?
On another note…
The Good Life won the Hopeful but looked slow doing it…. Will wait for the Champagne to see if there is anyone better from the east.
As I said, IF there is a reason to be concerned it may be too fast too soon. Where does he go from there? Beyers dont interest me as much as Thoro-Graph. Ill wait to see those..
I don’t pay much attention to Beyer’s I just hope Shug doesn’t let up too much on him after that effort but alot of times the eastern trainers do. You got to keep building on it.
If that is in fact USS Valor’s number, we may have another Englishman on our hands.
So you feel hes just going to be a sprinter? I.m hoping he will be able to keep stretching out. We’ll know more in his next two races
Do you think he goes to the Champagne? I hope so.
Just read on TDN… Shug says the plan is to take him to the Champagne. Was a big fan of his sire War of Will. USS Valor has the pedigree to go long. Before reading the TDN I looked up his pedigree and thought he might like the turf and then read the TDN article and Shug thought the same thing. Let’s hope he stays healthy.
Steve: I meant Valor has a chance to be the best 3YO next year, whether sprinter, miler, or classic horse.
Yes I thought about Big Brown….I was quoting a Paulick article….
Ka Ying Rising shattered the Sha Tin 1200 meter track record for the fifth time….
Summer Starlet hit a seam and won the gr1 Spin away impressively…..in time around three lengths slower than USS Valor won his maiden race…
Hmm! Sovereignty may miss the Gold Cup due to a foot abscess, and Nitrogen just might enter. Very interesting!
As of right now—Horse Of the Year is up for grabs …
Steve you called it…USS Valor 1:22 flat! Throw Prat in 2nd, exacta pays 9-1?…Won by around 12 lengths, looks like turf action…
Pretty good jockey race, at Saratoga ..Jose led Prat by 17 wins one week ago, his lead is down to 1….Manny Franco is 2 back……if Jose can win Saratoga ..I think The Eclipse is his to lose ..
I think Jose has already earned the Eclipse award and unless something really unusual happens, he should get it. But I’ve lost all faith in the voters for that award. Last year Irad led the nation in both wins and money won; he was the leading rider at Gulfstream in the winter, Saratoga in the summer, Keeneland in October, and Churchill Downs in November and he won the Shoemaker Award for the best performance at the Breeders Cup. I thought it was a slam dunk, but the powers that be voted overwhelmingly for Flavien Prat, who deserved the award in 2024 but not 2025. After that, I have no idea who might get the Eclipse award, but I think Jose will deserve it.
Prat last year won most gr1s, and much higher win %….graded stakes too…..he set records, in 2024 he had a great 2025 as well, he’s having a great 2026 also it’s September, nobody wins the award after eight months….
I quite agree that nobody can win the award in September, just as nobody can win a race until it’s been run. But we can handicap the field and I believe Jose will have the most going for him at the end of the year, largely because of what he’s already done. As for last year’s award, we disagree–strongly–about which statistics–and how many of them–are most important. The voters apparently agreed with you, which is all that counts, but I will always maintain that they were wrong.
I agree with you…Jose is having “the year”…
Meant to add…last year Irad had more wins and more 💰 ney….he rode like 400 more races, too…
Yes, that’s why I’m not too concerned about percentages. The fewer horses somebody rides, the more selective he can be. Both Ortizes are workaholics and would ride ten races every day if they could. That would be an achievement in itself, but it would have to involve some very unlikely mounts. Generally speaking, the more horses a jockey rides, the lower his percentage is likely to be.
Unlikely, that Jose wins the Saratoga title as he is riding at Kentucky Downs this weekend……. chasing the “big bucks”. Manny should walk away with the Spa title and it will be well earned. He is riding in the best form of his career.
Prat is also riding Kentucky Downs ….Manny could grab the title
Manny has 12 Monday mounts, Jose and Prat are riding Kentucky Downs…
If youre looking for a dark horse for this year and especially next keep an eye on USS Valor in Saturday’s maiden race. Third first time out but as impressive a losing debut as ive seen in a while. Dont know what he’s facing but he looks to have a bright future.
Hi Steve
Any thoughts on the G1 Del Mar Futurity, and/or the G1 Hopeful, coming up on Sunday, 9-6? As expected, Hughes opened as the favorite at 4/5, followed by Domus at 7/5.
In the G1 Hopeful, Booked opened as the favorite at 3-1. Flight Command, by Flightline, out of a Candy Ride mare looked super impressive in his debut race, but in the Saratoga Special, he stumbled out of the gate and couldn’t repeat the performance he displayed in his maiden race. I drew a line through his last race and expect a better performance in the Hopeful. He’s listed at 10-1 on the opening line, so the betting value is there.
Any thoughts you might have on those two G1 races would be appreciated.
Thanks, Steve.
Id like to help but my Equibase subscription from Blood Horse expired this year so I don’t get to see past performances anymore.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
Past performances can be easily accessed on Horse-Races. Net. Just click onto the trainer’s name or the stallion that sired the horse in any given race.
As an example, Baffert has two colts entered in the Del Mar Futurity. You can click onto his name which will list all the horses he has entered on the dates indicated. In the Hopeful, Brad Cox has The Good Life entered.
I’m puzzled that you would say you don’t get to see past performances anymore.
Great tip on U.S.S Valor
To all
Of us thanks Steve !
Just watched the replay of USS Valor Steve. That was very impressive. He runs straight as an arrow and although he wasn’t challenged at all in that race, he looks like a hard knocker. He’s a beautiful mover for two years old. Good eye, thanks. I’ll be keeping an eye on him.
Steve, thanks for sharing the TGs for Englishman and Flightline. Otherworldly, especially having gotten accustomed to the figs of rising 3YOs the last couple of years. I also just saw the added comments—will read those after I finish this post.
On a completely different note, I’m happy that Romantic Warrior has been retired—with these old guys (White Abbario for one) I want them to retire more or less sound. Terrified of breakdowns for these grand old warriors.
Those long time runners…the ten year olds—are old pros! They’ve long since figured out how to “take care of themselves”….you seldom see an old timer break down..
Steve,
Thanks for this follow up piece on the Travers. I liked last week how you contributed through out the week on adding additional information on horses to help with our handicapping. As far as Is Leading Change the new leader of this 3 year old crop? Who knows as this is a very inconsistent bunch. Gafflione ride on Renegade could have been better. I really did not have a problem with him running far back at the beginning of race but his mistake was on the far turn were he should have been concentrating on getting Renegade to the outside but instead was concentrating on what GT was going to do ( Although I have been critical of Irad rides of him the past he rides him with more authority and has learned alot on what makes him tick) think he was caught off guard when Ortiz took GT to the inside ( Ortiz admitted after the race he might have made a mistake doing that… duh why do mess with success) OH well water over the dam.
Steve glad you pointed out the slow finish and the joke Beyer figure.
As far as Englishman… this horse is in a class by himself. I would put him in the BC sprint (IMO). Would not run a filly or mare in BC Classic unless FY or Sovereignty are not in it.
Romantic Warrior retired.
Well deserved. Owes the ownership group and connections nothing!
you left out maybe the best thing about Leading Change – his Broodmare sire, Congrats. Son of APIndy, and also the Broodmare sire of the leading money winner (ever) Forever Young. Of course this all “Leads back ” to APIndy’s Broodmare sire, Secretariat.
I just went back over his female line. There are several other aspects of his pedigree.
In a rarity, Englishman ran his second consecutive negative-5 1/4 Thoro-Graph number. That’s pretty spectacular. Not to bounce after jumping from a 3 to a negative-5 1/4 and then repeating that monster number.
That is amazing!
How does that number compare to all-time Thoro-Graph numbers?
Not sure ive only been following it for several years.
I found out who has the fastest Thoro-Graph number ever if you care to guess. His numbers are insane.
Gun Runner ir Flightline?
It is Flightline negative-8 1/2. He also ran a negative-6 and a negative-5 twice and a negative-4. Amazing
Negative 8 obviously was the Pacific Classic
Wow!!
That is incredible!!
Thanks for the information!
Just re-watched 2022 Pacific Classic: only 1973 Belmont was more impressive!!
And I got to see him twice …the first time in The Malibu…Bob had a horse but he spent the entire time standing with Sadler, then the Pacific Classic, where Bob announced “2nd place is good money”…after saying Country Grammar was peaking—and Flightline had not even gone two turns….I’m yell ng everyone he’s got to prove he can get the ten furlongs, and he proved it, all right!
I am going to look either brilliant or an idiot with the following Saratoga maiden race for tomorrow.
Saratoga race 8
MSW 115k
Par for level: 92
Horses in race that have started have the following bsf’s: 21, 75, 82 (at $44k level) and 70…
The horse I like is, however, trained by Chad Summers, currently zero-for-entire-meet! Well, if he is going to get a win, he is running out of time!
His horse is 12-1 ml; will probably go off higher; horse is by Authentic, 10% with first time starters, cost $285k; Summers is 19% winners at +$2.09 with first time starters; 14% win rate +$1.55 MSW and he has 4 fast breezes in prep for initial race…
I will have at least a few dollars on the #5…
Hope I am not lighting that money on fire! I will have other races tomorrow…
Above should read: ‘best bsf’s’
Average maiden win at Saratoga is a 92 Beyer Number? I don’t believe so…,(?)….
Average beyer for msw $115k is 92 bsf
Beyer speed figure par id 92 fir that level of msw at Saratoga
‘Is’ ‘for’!😊
Inshallah will pass on the Del Mar Futurity, and is being pointed toward the American Pharaoh, around two turns…
Disappointing news, IMO. I was looking forward to seeing Inshallah face off against Hughes in the Futurity. At this juncture, Hughes and Inshallah appear to be the two best 2yr. olds on the West Coast.
Much like Seattle Slew and Zenyatta…Romantic Warrior ‘s legendary career was punctuated by a rare loss, his only try on dirt, when he sped away from Forever Young, and was caught in the shadow of the finish line, perhaps better at nine furlongs, but what a fabulous racehorse..
Steve I thought in similar fashion, about that 103 Beyer number…to my eye…it looked like Emerging Market was not beaten by much, there…
My thoughts are: This crop is not close, to Sovereignity, Forever Young, Magnitude, Baeza….not close….Mott might have a classic Classic! I thought Knightsbridge would’ve won that Travers, eased up….some years the three year olds look strong…not this time!
My thoughts on a filly trying the boys, in the ten furlong Classic are: it would need to be an “alpha” type, Zenyatta or Beholder, big “British” types, even Thorpedo Anna looked feminine, give me a Gallorette, or maybe a Glorious Song….I read where Zenyatta would school in the paddock, and look over at a male schooling nearby…she was the alpha,
At least this year’s crop has a couple of big stamina laden colts, there’s always the improvement factor…but I don’t see any fillies around, that I want to see try The Classic..
(Big “BRUTISH TYPES).
Genuine Risk was feminine. One of the greatest male conquerors in history Dahlia was very feminine. There have been others.
Genuine Risk was as tough as they come. It was my first year closely following racing, and of course my obsession grew. I’ve become as guilty as anyone in recent years of judging the relative merits of horses on various performance metrics, and i’m glad i have no idea where Genuine Risk fits on that scale. I just know after the dynamic derby run, she took the best of big, strong colts like Codex and Temperence Hill, then battled a really good Bold N Determined the rest of the year. There may not have been much left as a 4 yo or as a broodmare, but Genuine Risk was all class.
You can be feminine and tough. One is outer and one is inner.
Well said, Steve!
No disagreement intended about her physical nature. Her heart seemed fearless. Her long retirement was well earned.
Todd I get it, “Genuine Risk was GENUINE”, to quote Dave Johnson…and who was tougher than Rachel Alexandra? But it took a toll….and Lady’s Secret, aka “The Iron Lady”? It took a toll….
Yes I know….but Genuine Risk won a Kentucky Derby over a couple of Cal breds, I saw Dahlia many times….she was beautiful… I’ve no problem with filly turfers trying males, dirt racing requires strength, I think fillies are at a severe disadvantage on dirt—speed and stamina wise they’re equal but strength-wise I like to see fillies face their own kind… Nitrogen did terrific, I get it….
Some random questions on this past weekend.
1- If Sovereignty and Forever Young don’t perform up to par in the Gold Cup, should Chad Brown and Klaravich entertain the thought of running Fully Subscribed in the Classic after that monster performance? That was a visually stunning and powerful performance and she is bred to run all day and should relish the 1 1/4 miles. I dont believe there is a 3-year-old colt to fear and if the two big older horses look vulnerable at Belmont, why not go for broke when facing Nitrogen at 1 1/8 miles could be equally as difficult? But the key is the Gold Cup, and its not going to happen in any case. Just throwing it out there.
2- When frontrunners, especially the caliber of Napoleon Solo and Leading Change, are able to stroll three-quarters in a lethargic 1:12 3/5, shouldnt they be able to come home the last quarter faster than a hair under :26? That to me defies all the principles of pace and analyzing it. Shouldnt they have closed much faster than that and shouldn’t a good closer like Golden Tempo, needing just a :24 and change final quarter off a ridiculously slow three-quarters in 1:15 4/5, have run down the top two? Actually, shouldn’t he have inhaled them? But despite crawling the first of it, he came home in :25 2/5. Again, just putting the question out there. It has nothing to do with what those horses did and didn’t do. Golden Tempo, Napoleon Solo, and the winner are good horses. It is about what they should have and shouldn’t have done according to the pace of the race and the closing fractions.
3 – Considering the times of all the other races on the card, does the Travers Beyer figure of 103 seem kind of high with 1 1/4 miles in 2:02 4/5 and that slow final quarter? And does Fully Subscribed’s Beyer of 106 seem a tad low considering if she had gone another eighth of a mile in a slow :13 2/5, she still would have run faster than the Travers?
I’m sure Leading Change is a very good horse who is only going to get better. And there is no questioning Napoleon Solo’s brilliance and grit. And we know Golden Tempo is a classy and consistent colt. I am just bringing up questions I have regarding Saturday’s races based on pace and speed.
Steve, 3 random questions perfectly describes why I’m still shaking my head trying to figure it out. Golden Tempo and Napoleon Solo proved their class. The Travers looked like it was going to give us an answer and it did, but when you get one answer it usually leads to 20 more questions! Thanks Steve
What was the answer it gave us? Just wondering.
I’m sticking with the turf divisions!
Thats kinda confusing too other than Deterministic.
Steve;
Not confusing at all: At least for BC, European turf horses should dominate. I would love to see Deterministic win BC Mile, he appears to have the best shot of domestic turf horses, but he is currently 10-1 in UK futures with the following turf horses ranked ahead of Deterministic:
Notable Speech 5-2
Opera Ballo 3-1
Gstaad 5-1
Rayif 8-1
Blue Bolt (f) 8-1
Distant Storm 10-1
There have been many BC turf races won by 2nd and 3rd tier European horses at pretty good prices…
I made a huge mistake with busr site: at first, all BC futures races except Classic had $495 limit; Classic limit was $10 for me…busr takes their time updating their odds after big races so I emailed and asked if Classic can have big limit also. I thought they would raise Classic limit, but they reduced my limit on all BC races! Crazy! I was able to put a nice bet on Explora at 12-1 before her last impressive win. She is now 5-1…
Explora is Filly and Mare Sprint…
What about Burnham Square…. are you forgetting him?
He is 16-1 in BC Turf futures
Much like with Deterministic being top-ranked domestic horse for BC Turf, currently Burnham Square is top-ranked US horse in BC Turf futures:
Benvenuto Cellini 5-2
Ombudsmen 6-1
Purview 8-1
Constitution River 10-1
Kalpana 14-1
A Boy Named Susie 14-1
Survie 16-1
Almaqam 16-1
Daryz 16-1
Diamond Necklace 16-1; she is 7-2 favorite for F+M Turf
Calandagan 16-1
Burnham Square 16-1
Turf races are closer finishes, but they do seem more formful….Europeans dominate AS THEY SHOULD, USA dominates on dirt…every now and then we have a John Henry, a Lure, a Wise Dan….Kotashan….they are outliers…
Great questions to contemplate. I believe we have an even crop of good 3yos. But nothing close to great other than Englishman.
Steve, my feeling is that it’s been a long season for the 3 year olds who have been running since January or February. Golden Tempo won his first stakes in January, which is unusual for a Derby winner. The fresh horses are just now blossoming . Who knows how long they will flower?
As others have commented, I’m just delighted to read about John Shirreffs’ connection to Englishman.
My thought on the Travers–anyone else out there think it’s time for Ocelli to get a little class relief?
Yes! I’ve thought that for 3 or 4 starts now….he needs a win to get him used to winning instead of finishing behind others every time.
I think so, too. If the current pattern continues, he’s going to lose heart.
Great column, Steve. Can anyone say “Starship Warpspeed” fast three times? I can barely say it once slow!
I wouldn’t even attempt it.
Great article. Putting all things into perspective Golden Trmpo, and Napoleon Solo form held up well. Renegade as everyone knows needs more time between races. Sea Strike was aided by the downpour before his last race in the Curlin. I’m sure Brown would’ve loved to see another deluge an hour before the race. Ocelli is a maiden. Silent Tactic ran light out in the Jim Dandy and needed more time to recover.Emerging Market has been managed poorly. Never should have run in the Derby, way to much to ask for off of only 2 starts. Baby Vino tried hard but he was really washed out on the track. The Puma lost so much ground but will be better next time out. Then Leading Change, got the perfect trip and nailed Solo. Man everything Cox shipped in from CD has run off the charts this year at Saratoga. Congratulations job well done. Oh and Englishman. He’s just a freak. No doubt the fastest 3yo of this crop and many others. Perfectly managed.
Thanks John. I think they may have ruined Emerging Market. He needs a freshening now.
I agree with your assessment of EM. …. should have glued his shoes on
As usual, loved this column. I love your insights and the history you weave in your stories. Thank you.
Leading Change received either a 102 or 103 BSF for his big win on Saturday. Depending on which article you read. Which is a terrific number for that bunch. Only 3 of the entrants had ever posted a triple digit BSF. However, to my old eyes, Leading Change didn’t look that much better than the other nine horses. An improving horse that got a terrific ride by a red-hot jock having the best Saratoga meet of his career.
Still waiting for a hero to rise from these streets. Can a sprinter be considered the best 3-year-old? What horse can beat that rocket ship named Englishman? Crude Velocity did. But at a mile. I wonder if we will be seeing Crude Velocity on the track again.
The Travers? I need to stop chasing Emerging Market. Frustrating. I wanted a longshot but didn’t use Leading Change because of just a neck victory at Shelbyville.
I thought that Ways and Means was the best bet of the day. Unfortunately, she was heavily bet. I pointed out that Ways and Means only wins in New York. 0 for 5 outside the Empire State. But Ways and Means seems better than ever at 5-years-old. Maybe she has a shot at Keeneland in this year’s Breeders Cup.
I don’t like that they will be running the Jockey Club Gold Cup on a Friday.
I understand why they are doing it. A celebration of the reopening of Belmont Park.
But, to me, they are jumping the gun. The construction won’t be finished. The attendance will be capped at about six thousand people. Celebrate when it’s finished and ready to go.
A race that might draw Forever Young and Sovereignty deserves to be on a Saturday. When most fans will be watching and playing. It would mess up my routine. I’ll watch a replay of the race.
Why is the reopening on a Friday? I hope the 6,000 there dont have to be anywhere after the races. Good luck in New York on a Friday evening.
I don’t know. I always thought it was great that Keeneland ran the Blue Grass on Thursday, nine days out from the derby. And when Monmouth was a big racetrack, they opened on Friday. It was like a state holiday.,i kind of like shaking things up a bit, but i’m not a New Yorker, so logistics may be an issue.
A latter day Sky Beauty?…
Steve, I really liked reading about Englishman’s beginnings. What a beautiful colt. The human connections in the industry make up a sort of pedigree of their own. Knowing that John Shirreffs’ work is alive is heartwarming. Please keep reminding us when the fingerprints of legends reappear like this!
Manny Franco has been riding his boots off at Saratoga, and I bet he wants this meet to last forever! Whether Leading Change is a lasting star or not remains to be seen, but I think he benefited greatly from the right rider at the right time last Saturday.
Another fantastic article and Englishman /john Sheriff’s connection was great to read! Hard to believe and thanks for pointing out LC Was unraced when Golden Tempo won the Belmont ! We love your columns Steve thanks so much what a year it’s been with the 3 year olds and your weekly columns 🙏🏻
Thank you Nick.
When all the 3yos who have fallen away are mentioned together, it seems that talented horses are still being produced, but they just can’t stay on the racetrack at a high level of training. I’m sure every training method to keep them running has been tried, but the durability has been bred out of them. The mention of April Mayberry brought back memories. Her father, Brian, gave me my first job on the racetrack at Atlantic City in 1983. I remember his wife and two young daughters being around, if i remember correctly with lots of blond curly hair. Brian Mayberry was a nice man, and i sometimes regret not staying long, but i just wasn’t ready for the lifestyle. Turns out i never really was.
Steve….the race that “wow’d” me on Saturday was that French filly coming from last, on turf—she came home in under :22, I know after being here for a while…horses can tail off form some, as they acclimate to the time change….but I haven’t seen that kind of turf kick in a long while….
When it comes to acceleration no one beats the French.
Absolutely–remember Goldikova’s Breeders’ Cup wins? What a turn of foot she had!
First impression is important, in my opinion…my example being Tiznow, who walked pass me and I had an “inner reaction”, and I kept looking, as he came around again….he wasn’t perfectly balanced, he was a big horse, four legs and a tail…but he “grabbed” me, I wonder if he would still do that, age 29….
Leading Change went off 18-1 , I believe, in The Classic Futures, not a bad price, considering there’s room for improvement….rewatching the race…the field was fairly bunched, thru the stretch, Leading Change ran like a seasoned veteran, time will tell us if this crop can compare favorably with last year’s, or in Forever Young’s case the year before last …
I’m excited to be posting this comment from the car, where (along with my husband and driver), I’m heading to Maine for vacation. Thank you for pointing out John Shirreff’s connection to Englishman. I’m sure that’s a big reason why the horse found his way into the right hands.
As for the part about the Travers winner, I found your thesis about two grade 1 winners coming from a line of mediocure racemares provocative.While I grant you that the first five dams of Shedaresthedevil and Leading Change were lackluster racehorses, several were decent producers. Andriana C. is the dam of Grade 2 winner Crafty CT, and fifth dam Indian Queen produced Grade 2 winner Screen King. If you look back another generation, the class in the family emerges. Leading Change’s sixth dam, Mumtaz, produced three stakes winning daughters: Indian Sunlight, Come Hither Look, and Pass a Glance. Together, they are responsible for dozens of high class stakes winners over several generations, including French Derby winner Hernando and Grade/Group One winners Johann Quatz and Palace Music. It doesn’t hurt when you breed a proven stakes producer (as Starship Warpspeed was in 2022) to a sire like Gun Runner, who tends to move up his mares.