Early Look at the 2026 Derby Hopefuls

It seems as if it’s never too early to start honing in on potential Kentucky Derby horses even with all the potential pitfalls that lie ahead. All the main preps have been completed, with only the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds and the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 20 remaining in 2025. In this column we are previewing a number of Derby hopefuls, placing them in separate categories, while focusing on several aspects of each horse, both visual and statistical, with an emphasis on their Thoro-Graph patterns. ~ Steve Haskin

Early Look at the 2026 Derby Hopefuls

By Steve Haskin

 

It is snowing as I write this. But whenever I see snow I think ahead to spring and try to imagine which horses will Run for the Roses. It is moments like this when the lyrics of the song “The Rose” come to mind — “Just remember in the winter, far beneath the bitter snows, lies the seed that with the sun’s love, in the spring becomes the rose.”

This is the time when many of the leading hopefuls are either returning to the track before embarking on the Derby trail after a brief freshening at the farm or just continuing their work pattern from this year. But once that ball drops on New Year’s Eve it is time to start accumulating those all-important Derby points or build on the few points you already have. Trainers start planning their brief schedules knowing that every point could mean the difference in living one’s dream on the first Saturday in May or watching the race on TV and wondering what could have been if they had finished second instead or third in one of the preps.

There are several ways to determine which horses will be on your short list of legitimate Derby contenders, while always keeping an eye on the next tier who look ready to move up on your list. The first way obviously is to study the past performances, but they only provide a partial evaluation of a horse’s strengths and weaknesses. The second, and at this early stage, equally as important is watching the races. That is when those strengths and weaknesses are staring you right in the face. Does the horse show you the class and professionalism they are going to need to overcome any obstacles they may have to face, such as their jockey asking them to do something they’ve never done before? Do they have the quick turn of foot and ability to shift gears to get out of traffic jams? Do they display the toughness and courage needed to overcome bumping incidents, and to fight back if engaged in a head-to-head stretch battle? And can they sustain long runs and still come home fast even when forced to go wide and lose valuable ground?

So far, we only have a few races to assess all the strengths and weakness. What we are going to do in this column is utilize a handicapping tool that gives us a pretty good idea what kind of progress a horse is making at this early stage of his career and single out two horses — one at a moderate Pool 2 Future Wager price of 28-1 and one who isn’t even listed in the top 39 And there is a bonus one we mention briefly who could be a monstrous overlay at 101-1. But remember, there are others that we are high on.

First, let’s look at the some of Thoro-Graph patterns that could give us some indication in what direction a horse is heading at this early stage of his career. Looking back to last year at this time, Sovereignty had run a “91/2…”5″…and “5 3/4.” The first positive is that he improved several points from his first start to his second start, and in his key third start, he jumped into graded stakes company as a maiden and pretty much paired up that “5” winning handily. That meant, coming off a strong pairing he was expected to make another big move forward in his next start and he did just that running a “1 3/4” in his 3-year-old debut. That is why the first race at 3 is so important because it tells you if you have a horse who is fast enough and moving in the right direction without doing anything too drastic in either direction. You don’t want too huge a move forward because that often means a regression (or bounce) is likely to follow, and you don’t want those regressions too close to the Derby.

As it turned out, Sovereignty then paired up his career high number once again with another “1 3/4,” which meant that not only was another forward move expected in the Kentucky Derby, but one that wins most Derbys. Right on cue, he ran a “0” to win the Derby, and with a few extra weeks off by skipping the Preakness, he was yet again able to pair up by running another “0” in the Belmont Stakes. Just to demonstrate what a machine this horse was, as if he was programmed to demonstrate a perfect Thoro-Graph pattern, he was given time off after the Belmont and returned with another career-high number of “negative-2 1/2” and continuing his amazing pattern, paired that up in the Travers. I only showed all his numbers (9 1/2 – 5 – 5 3/4 – 1 3/4 – 1 3/4 – 0 – 0 – negative-2 1/2 – negative-2 1/2) to demonstrate what a near-perfect pattern looks like, not only for the Derby, but an entire career, and also the importance of pairings.

So now, let’s look at this year’s Derby hopefuls. Because Thoro-Graph numbers are a paid product I can’t simply quote their proprietary figures other than an occasional mention, but I can give you an overall look at how these horses are progressing or regressing and what to look for once the Derby Rankings begin.

Of course we have to start with the big horse, TED NOFFEY. The Spendthrift Farm colt is on an excellent pattern and like Sovereignty is showing everything you want to see in a Derby horse. His career debut was a solid number, just what you want to see in the first start. But then when put in the Hopeful Stakes, he blew everyone away by improving 6 1/2 points and already running a number that can win the Derby. That could have been a case of way too fast too early. Fortunately, he did the best thing possible in the Breeder’s Futurity, his two-turn debut. He did regress as expected, but only by 2 1/2 points, which still gave him a very fast number for a 2-year-old.

Now came the all-important question, where does he go from there. You don’t want another regression, and you don’t want another monster move forward that is going to precipitate another regression as he gets closer to the Derby. So what does he do? He nails it perfectly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, pairing up his Breeder’s Futurity number and putting himself in almost the same position as Sovereignty. I would expect to see him run around a “1 1/2” or “1 3/4” in his 3-year-old debut, just as Sovereignty did in the Fountain of Youth. So if you’re a fan of this horse, be assured he is doing everything right and is on as good a pattern as you could ask for.

Too Fast Too Early?

Earlier I mentioned too fast too early. Just to give you an example. IT’S OUR TIME ran an insane “0” in his career debut winning by the length of the stretch and had everyone on the NYRA racing show gushing over his performance, and deservedly so. It was spectacular. But where does he go from there? In his next start he regresses more than six points and in his third start he regresses another five points, putting him in double-digits and needing a substantial forward move to just to give him some hope and stop his downward spiral.

Then we come to Spendthrift’s other big horse, FURTHER ADO, who started his career with a pair of mediocre figures, with his second start in double digits and two points slower than his first start. Where his next start came from I have no idea, but he not only improves a mind-blowing 11 points, he runs an other-worldly negative number, which is way too early unless you have a freak on your hands. So it was very important to see what he did in his stakes debut, the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. As expected, he regressed six points, but that obviously still has him in range to develop a more stable pattern, making his 3-year-old debut, possibly at Fair Grounds, extremely important. In order to put him back on track and in position to keep moving forward at a normal progression I would love to see something between a “2” and a “3.” Even if he pairs his last number it would be OK, as long as he doesn’t regress again. At 13-1 in the Future Wager, he still is a bit of a question mark until his next start, but he no doubt is extremely brilliant and talented.

One horse who was very impressive breaking his maiden at Churchiill Downs in his second start was CANNONEER. He could be any kind, but, again, we have to watch his next start very closely, as he improved over 13 points from his first start and already has one of this crop’s fastest numbers. Like his stablemate Further Ado, both trained by Brad Cox, his next start will tell us just where he is as a Derby horse. A regression would be expected, but we’ll see if he does, and if so, how far. But visually I loved what I saw.

Another wait-and-see horse is 30-1 shot ENGLISHMAN, who ran the third fastest Thoro-Graph number so far in his career debut, just a point slower than It’s Our Time. The question is, will he follow that horse’s pattern and bounce to the moon, as they say, in his second start? The son of Maxfield, trained by Cherie Devaux, stunned everyone with a 7 1/2-length romp at Churchill Downs, blazing the seven furlongs in 1:21 1/5 and did it well within himself. He’s a beautiful mover and was very professional, so high marks visually. April Mayberry, who broke and trained him, as well as Zenyatta, Flightline, Baeza, and Rich Strike, said he was one of her favorites, but admitted regarding his debut, “The way he did it, Wow! I didn’t know he was that good.”

Next we come to KRISTOFFERSON, a $1,150,000 yearling purchase who regressed nine points off his “3 1/2” in his career debut. Bob Baffert obviously was so impressed with him off his six-furlongs in 1:08 3/5, in which he defeated Mr. A. P., he moved him right up into the Grade 1 American Pharoah at 1 1/16 miles, and the regression was evident as he tired badly, beaten 11 1/2 lengths. He hasn’t worked since that race, so we don’t know for sure how he came out of it and if there was a physical issue.

Continuing with the question marks who can project themselves into the big picture with another forward move, a Florida-bred who has made a sudden improvement numbers-wise is the Mark Casse-trained STRATEGIC RISK, who after four races with double-digit Thoro-Graph numbers, improved 6 1/2 points romping by nine lengths in the In Reality Division of the Florida Sire Series. He was coming off a third in the seven-furlong Affirmed Division, so was already on the improve. With this huge score, we’ll see how he does in open company and if he can take another step forward. Finally, there is the recent Churchill Downs allowance winner STOP THE CAR, a son of Maximum Security trained by Brendan Walsh, who made a big seven-point jump forward off his career debut, going a mile in a sharp 1:35 1/5 while winning by 3 3/4 lengths to remain undefeated. But he still looked awfully good winning that second start and with his inbreeding to A.P. Indy and being inbred three times to A.P. Indy’s sire Seattle Slew, the pedigree is there and Walsh looks to be getting closer to that first classic win, with better horses every year.

A Solo Category

Finally, one horse who could fall into the question mark category, but gets one of his own is NAPOLEON SOLO, stunning winner of the Champagne Stakes by 6 1/2 lengths in a brilliant 1:34 2/5 for the mile. Although he ran a “2 1/2” in that race, jumping six points from his impressive maiden victory, and blazed through fractions of :44 1/5 and 1:07 4/5, I don’t believe he is going to regress much, if at all, off that race. His trainer Chad Summers is very Sheets conscious and ignored the siren call of the Breeders’ Cup and put the colt away and gave him a freshening. He was expected to return to Summers’ barn this past Sunday. The son of Liam’s Map is just naturally fast, and although there is a good deal of speed in his pedigree, his female family is loaded with stamina. Although the Champagne runner-up Talkin didn’t run well in the Remsen Stakes, the third-place finisher Universe closed like a rocket to finish second to Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Napoleon Solo closed at 21-1 in the second Future Wager. I look forward to his 3-year-old debut with great anticipation  because he could special, and that next start should tell us a lot.

Heading in the Right Direction

Now let’s go in the opposite direction as we look at the horses who have impressed us visually, have excellent Thoro-Graph patterns to work with, and have no question marks at all. We’ll start with the budding rivalry between PALADIN and RENEGADE, who have met twice, with Paladin being put up on a disqualification after a rousing stretch battle in a one-mile maiden race at Aqueduct and then beating Renegade by two lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes. Paladin, a son of Gun Runner, has the same connections as Sierra Leone, also by Gun Runner, and is following the same route. But he is more tactical and more professional than Sierra Leone, and we’ll have to see if he is more talented. I like a horse who starts off with a good solid Thoro-Graph number and then pairs it up while moving way up in class. Paladin did that by pairing up his strong figure in the Remsen and asserting himself in the stretch, looking like a colt who will keep stretching out in distance with no problem. He is inbred three times to Fappiano, arguably the most successful sire line in the country, and is also inbred to English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky and traces to Darby Dan foundation mare Golden Trail, as well as their big mare Flower Bowl, dam of full brothers Graustark and His Majesty, both exceptional class and stamina influences.

Renegade’s Thoro-Graph pattern is a bit different. He got started earlier, began with a much slower number, and has improved steadily with each start. Despite his two-length defeat in the Remsen, he actually got a faster Thoro-Graph number than Paladin. But before you make too much of that, sometimes with young horses you have to look beyond the number. Renegade received a faster number because he had a wider trip, which is fine, but when you’re looking for Derby horses you like to see a horse stuck down on the inside and watch how he handles it. Renegade made his move three-wide to reach contention going into the far turn while Paladin was still boxed in down on the rail with nowhere to run. Renegade didn’t quicken right away and Paladin finally was able to ease out and rally outside of Renegade, outrunning him from the quarter pole home. Renegade was a bit late changing leads, but kept building up momentum and closed well. He just couldn’t match strides with Paladin through a solid :12 3/5 final eighth. There doesn’t seem to be much separating these two classy colts.

The big difference between them is that Paladin closed at 22-1 in the Future Wager, while Renegade closed at a mouth-watering 63-1. Renegade, like Paladin, has a top-class pedigree, being by Into Mischief, out of a Curlin mare. So here we go again with a potential Mike Repole/Todd Pletcher vs. Coolmore and Brook Smith/Chad Brown rivalry, with these two colts replacing Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Speaking of rivalries, for us oldtimers how about a battle between classic TV shows Have Gun Will Travel vs. The Man From Uncle or in other words Paladin vs. Napoleon Solo.

For now, before we get to our two featured horses, here is a brief look at other excellent Thoro-Graph patterns. One colt with good steady progress heading in the right direction is the top-class colt BLACKOUT TIME, trained by Kenny McPeek, who just needs to get a tad faster, but that looks to be a sure thing. He should be sharp and fresh for his 3-year-old debut after the Breeders’ Cup debacle, getting scratched by the vet the morning of the race. From a visual standpoint he has all the tools and posseses a good blend of speed and stamina in his pedigree. He showed his speed running second in his career debut in 1:08 3/5 at Churchill Downs, then stretching out to a mile he romped by 9 3/4 lengths. In the Breeder’s Futurity he stalked the pace and stayed on gamely to finish a strong second to Ted Noffey. His tail-female family is loaded with European stamina that includes Sadler’s Wells and father and son English Derby winners Mill Reef and Shirley Heights.

Another moving slowly and steadily forward is Blackout Time’s stablemate, the aforementioned UNIVERSE. Both are already Grade 1 placed against Ted Noffey and Napoleon Solo, with the latter placed in a Grade 2 behind Further Ado, so it looks like Kenny McPeek could be back in the Derby with a couple of serious contenders. You had to love the way he stormed home to get second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. You may not be familiar with his sire Global Campaign, but he earned over $1.3 million and is by Curlin, out of an A.P. Indy mare. McPeek does have another colt to watch in LIBERTY NATIONAL. Even though he debuted with a “15 1/4” Thoro-Graph number going seven furlongs, he at least was able to move up five points in his second start, stretching out to two turns and winning impressively by 4 1/4 lengths after putting in a strong rally from seventh. He is by Maxfield, out of an Awesome Again mare, and his second dam is a full-sister to Tiznow, so he could be a sleeper if we see another big move forward in his next start.

The Thoro-Graph pattern of MR. A. P., a strong second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, is an interesting one. After debuting with a solid “8,” he made a big move to a “2 1/2,” and as expected regressed 4 1/2 points to almost the same number as in his debut. But then came the key race following a bounce and he took another step forward in ther Breeders’ Cup and now looks to be on an excellent pattern. And with that “2 1/2” to fall back on I doubt we will see this colt regress again in the foreseeable future.

Let’s turn to Bob Baffert’s two exciting colts, BRANT, by Gun Runner, and BOYD, by Violence. Brant’s pattern is very similar to Mr. A. P., as he also debuted with a “2 1/2,” and also regressed several points, and then started heading back in the right direction with a gutsy third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, battling back after being passed by Ted Noffey and just getting nipped for second. Boyd is a brilliant colt whose main question mark is stamina. He was very impressive winning his debut by almost six lengths going 5 1/2 furlongs. Baffert then shipped him to Churchill Downs for the 6 1/2-furlong Ed Brown Stakes to get another sprint in him and he delivered big-time with a 2 1/2-length score in a sizzling 1:15 2/5. With two fast Thoro-Graph numbers and a 1 1/2-point improvement in his second start to a “3 1/2,” he looks like an exciting colt to watch. But with only those two short sprints we will have to wait to see where Baffert runs him next and how far he wants to stretch him out.

While Brant and Boyd are lightly raced and still have questions to answer, that can’t be said about LITMUS TEST, winner of Saturday’s Los Alamitos Futurity, defeating two unproven stablemates. The son of Nyquist has run five times already, three of them Grade 1’s and one Grade 2, and was coming off back-to-back defeats against Ted Noffey, but ran well both times, finishing third in the Breeder’s Futurity and fourth, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. So the Los Alamitos Futurity was a huge drop in class, which is why he was 3-5. This was a workmanlike performance, beating the up-and-coming Blacksmith by 1 1/2 lengths. It’s hard to tell just where he fits, but he tries every race and has to be admired for that. And he deserved to finally find an easy spot and get that graded stakes victory.

Several other promising colts who are moving forward with solid numbers include the Chad Brown-trained REBEL INSTINCT, who was very impressive breaking his maiden by three lengths at Aqueduct, going a mile in a sharp 1:35 4/5 and closing his final quarter in :24 2/5. This was a three-point improvement from his strong second-place finish in his career debut, in which they ran the mile in 1:35 3/5. You don’t see many 2-year-olds start their career with back-to-back miles in 1:35 and change. The son of Into Mischief is an April 10 foal, so he still should have a lot of improvement in him, especially after improving his Thoro-Graph numbers more than three points in his second start. And when a 2-year-old making only his second start battles on and just off the lead the lead every step of the way going a flat mile while being pressed by two other horses on his outside and draws away to to a three-length score coming home his final quarter in :24 2/5, that is impressive. He definitely is one to watch.

Another interesting colt is BALBOA. In his first four starts with Baffert, even with a 7 3/4-length maiden win, his Thoro-Graph numbers ranged between “11” and “12,” with two poor efforts in the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah Stakles. Apparently going nowhere with four slow numbers and two bad races, and being an $875,000 yearling purchase, it was decided to send him east to be trained by Brittany Russell, possibly with the hope he would like the deeper tracks. In his first for Russell, he won the six-furlong James F. Lewis Stakes at Laurel by 5 1/4 lengths, with his Thoro-Graph number zooming to a “6 1/4.” Russell then made a bold mopve by putting him in the Remsen at 1 1/8 miles and he pressed the pace the whole way and hung tough, finishing a gutsy third behind Paladin and Renegade, beaten 3 1/2 lengths at odds of 27-1. And he wound up pairing up his previous career-high performance on Thoro-Graph, setting him up or good things at 3.

If you like high-priced yearlings you have to love COURTING, who sold for a whopping $5 million at Keeneland. By Curlin, out of $2 million earner Cavorting, by Bernardini, he started off well, finishing a solid fourth going a mile at Aqueduct and then breaking maiden at a mile, winning by 2 1/2 lengths wire to wire. He came back in the Remsen and didn’t seem comfortable early dropping back to eighth. But he ran well enough passing several horses to finish fourth and improving his Thoro-Graph numbers two points, putting himself in a position to get into the Derby picture with another two to three-point improvement.

Finally, we’ll mention a horse who has been a bit up and down in his Thoro-Graph numbers, but his ups have been impressive enough to always take him seriously. SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT started off with a fast Thoro-Graph number, winning going six furlongs at Saratoga, then regressed four points in his second start, finishing a well-beaten fourth in the Hopeful Stakes. He then romped by nine lengths in a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, getting a career-high “4 1/2” number. Even though he regressed again, by three points, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he actually ran a good race, hanging tough in the stretch and giving Further Ado all he could handle for a while before winding up third, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths. St. Elias Stable paid $950,000 for him as a yearling and I think he still has a bright future. We’re just not quite sure who he is yet and where he fits in stakes company. But his last effort was promising.

One horse who doesn’t have a category yet is MOB, a well-bred son of Gun Runner trained by Brian Lynch who won his career debut by 1 1/2 lengths going 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, leading every step of the way. He earned a moderate “9 1/4” Thoro-Graph number, leaving him with a lot of improving to do and fairly quickly. I am including him because he was bet down to 37-1 in the Future Wager, so someone sure likes him. He did open a big lead lead in the final furlong until another first-time starter BOSS DYLAN came flying from the back of the pack to not only cut into his margin while on the wrong lead, but gallop out a dozen lengths in front. We might as well keep an eye on this Brendan Walsh-trained colt as well. He is by Liam’s Map, with a lot of stamina in his female family.

Featured Colts

As we like to do on Derby columns, we are featuring two horses who have caught the eye; one being obvious and one not so obvious. Before we get to our two featured horses we want to  mention an under the radar Baffert-trained colt named BUETANE, a distant second to Ted Noffey in the Hopeful Stakes following an impressive maiden win. At a 101-1 in the Future Wager, he surely looked like a massive overlay. He had missed his scheduled start in the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes when the race failed to fill, showing just how thin the 2-year-olds in Southern California are. The colt has been working lights out, going five- and six-furlongs, but did not enter in the Los Alamitos Futurity, as Baffert has elected for now to keep him sprinting. So we’ll just keep an eye on him for now and see how he progresses if and when Baffert stretches him out.

Then we discovered another Baffert colt, PLUTARCH — the first of our two featured colts. He is a Coolmore-owned son of Into Mischief who just broke his maiden on grass in his fifth career start and wasn’t even in the Future Wager betting field. But watching his races, there is so much more to this colt than meets the eye. And being out of the classy Curlin mare Stellar Wind, who twice defeated Hall of Famer Beholder, in the Vanity and Clement Hirsch, he certainly has the pedigree to be any kind.

Looking at his Thoro-Graph numbers and seeing four of his five races with figures ranging from “10” to “11 1/4,” it would be natural to assume he simply is too slow and not showing any improvement, especially with a “10” in his last start.– a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on grass, which is a surface on which you rarely see a Baffert horse. But here is why there may be gold hidden deep in this mine. In his career debut going a mile on dirt, he was a bit green being stuck down on the rail and under a tight hold and eventually began backing up. But when he finally saw some daylight he found another gear and displayed a brilliant turn of foot, rallying wide and flying down the stretch to finish second to Intrepido, eventual winner of the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes.

Baffert needed to keep Plutarch around two turns and had to go to the grass with him in the Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf. It took him a while to get used to the new surface and he fell far back in last in the 13-horse field, but again he made a huge move and circled the field to quickly reach contention, going from 13th to second in less than a quarter of a mile. He looked like a sure winner in the stretch, but showed his greenness by refusing to change leads and ducking in late. He finished second again, beaten 1 1/2 lengths despite closing his final quarter in a sensational :22 3/5.

Although he was still a maiden, Baffert put him in the American Pharoah Stakes. He raced closer to the pace down on the inside and rallied strongly through the stretch to finish third, beaten only three-quarters of a length by Intrepido and Baffert’s big 2-year-old at the time, Desert Gate. Although we said he’s run four double-digit Thoro-Graph numbers, he did run a “7 1/2” in the American Pharoah, even saving ground. With Baffert having Brant and Litmus Test in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and with Plutarch still being a maiden, he ran him back on the grass in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes on Breeders’ Cup Friday. He again turned in a big late run, but wound up third.

Baffert finally found the ideal spot for him in a 1 1/8-mile maiden race on grass. Racing in seventh, he made his usual big run and found himself in a tight squeeze in the stretch getting bumped from both sides. He bulled his way through and charged to the lead. Again he failed to change leads until late, but still drew clear in a flash to win by 4 1/2 lengths in 1:49 3/5.

The bottom line is, although he’s been finding his way, racing on both grass and dirt and in top company, while trying to overcome his immaturity, it is that “7 1/2” Thoro-Graph Thoro-Graph number in the American Pharoah that he has to build on and there is no reason why he won’t. Ignore those other numbers, especially the grass races, which rarely get big numbers in California. This colt has seen it all. He can run close up or far back, he has a big turn of foot on grass or dirt, can make up a lot of ground quickly, and he has a powerful stretch run. And his pedigree is pure royalty. This could very well be Baffert’s big sleeper.

Finally we come to the second of our featured contenders, INCREDIBOLT, a colt who has a lot going for him, and there is a lot to like to like about him. Talk about following in your father’s footsteps, how about his trainer Riley Mott following his father’s victory in the Street Sense Stakes with Sovereignty. Both Sovereignty and Incredibolt won the 1 1/16-mile race at Churchill Downs in their third career start; both rallied from 5 1/2 lengths back to win going away; and both ran basically the same Thoro-Graph number, wiith Sovereignty earning a “5 3/4” and Incredibolt a “6.” While Sovereignty was pairing up his previous race, Incredibolt has improved his numbers with each start; first by six points and then by five points. There is still is further improving to do, so like many others, his first start at 3 will be very important and we should expect another jump forward to somewhere around a “3,” give or take a point.

His first start going six furlongs at Ellis Park was purely a learning experience at a distance way too short for him. In his second start going a mile at Churchill Downs, he showed more speed, sitting third along the inside, then eased out in the stretch and drew clear with smooth fluid strides and was getting stronger as he hit the wire two lengths in front.

Mott then put him in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense against Kenny McPeek’s highly regarded 7-5 favorite Universe. Breaking from post 7 on the far outside, he dropped back to last and was four-wide going into the first turn. Down the backlstretch he was stil last and under a snug hold by jockey Jaime Torres, whol was just waiting to step on the accelerator. When he did around the half-mile pole, Incredibolt took off and passed horses quickly, but was still about four lengths back turning for home. Down the stretch, he took a slight bump from the inside horse, but kept getting stronger with every stride, while running straight as the proverbial arrow. He pulled clear and won under a hand ride by 1 3/4 lengths over Universe, who would come back finish a strong second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

Visually, Incredibolt is a pleasure to watch. He keeps his legs under him perfectly, and as mentioned earlier is very professional, never deviating off his course. In the Street Sense, he came home his final two fractions in :23 4/5 and :06 2/5, and that is moving. Pedigree-wise, he is inbred to A.P. Indy and three times to Seattle Slew, and also has the much desired Rasmussen Factor, being inbred to Lassie Dear through her daughter’s Weekend Surprise and Lassie Connection. Incredibolt’s sire Bolt d’Oro seemed headed to a big career, winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes and finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 2 and then winning the San Felipe Stakes and finishing second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby before losing his form and eventually being retired after returning sore from a workout.

Incredibolt’s two grandsires, Awesome Again and Medaglia d’Oro, combined to finish first or second in three Breeders’ Cup Classics, two Whitneys, the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. His maternal great-grandsire Mineshaft was Horse of the Year and his maternal great-granddam is by Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Unbridled. Not bad for a $75,000 yearling purchase by Pin Oak Stud.

“He was very athletic-looking and slightly immature at the Keeneland sale, but well-balanced physically with the presence of a good horse,” said Pin Oak bloodstock advisor Matt Weinmann. “I knew people weren’t hot on Bolt d’Oro at the time, but when the hammer dropped at $75,000 I think we all felt like we stole a good one.”

Michael Hardy, director of farm operations at Pin Oak, added, “He always looked like an athlete and had a great attitude. He went through all his early lessons at the farm very well without much incident.” To demonstrate how much the colt changed from year one to year two, Hardy recalls, “He always showed himself as one that was quite mature and had a little bit of a swagger or extra confidence about him. He showed plenty of speed and talent early on when we started breezing him on the farm back in April before he was sent to Churchill Downs following the last year’s Derby. He came back to the farm after the Street Sense for a scheduled break and shipped back to Riley about a week ago. At the moment we’d be looking at the Holy Bull as our first race of the campaign.”

So those are two to watch next year, and there will be others as we continue on the Derby trail. Between last week’s column and this one, you can’t say you’re not prepared (smiley face). Good luck and have fun. In the long run that’s what it’s all about.

 

Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.