Fab Four Revival Set for 2025
With the Breeders ‘ Cup over, this is the time our thoughts usually turn to the final 2-year-old stakes and next year’s Kentucky Derby trail. What else is there except bidding farewell to all the horses retiring, especially the leading 3-year-olds who we were just getting to know. But this year we have witnessed a phenomenon in racing. There will be no goodbyes. ~ Steve Haskin
Fab Four Revival Set for 2025
By Steve Haskin
Sierra Leone (outside), Forever Young and Mystik Dan hit the wire together in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
Yes, you no doubt were happy to hear that the top three 3-year-old colts, Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young, and the top 3-year-old filly Thorpedo Anna will all return in 2025. And we’ll even add Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan. But are you aware just how historic that is?
If you go back, let’s say half a century, that has never happened. And in this early retirement era of racing when the vast majority of our classic winners and champions are whisked away to stud before they have an opportunity to establish their true greatness, this news is unheard of.
The days of great 3-year-olds becoming all-time greats at a 4 are long gone. Since Spectacular Bid, who was undefeated at 4, how many 3-year-old champions can you name who are mentioned among the all-time greats? Even Seattle Slew and Affirmed needed to race at 4 to reach that status, having combined to win only one race, the Jim Dandy, after their Triple Crown sweeps. The two Triple Crown winners since – American Pharoah and Justify – will have a difficult time measuring up with the all-time greats after being retired at 3.
In this century, of the 24 champion 3-year-olds, only six are in the Hall of Fame. Two of those were the two aforementioned Triple Crown winners who got an automatic admission with their historic feat, and three – Tiznow, Curlin, and Arrogate – earned their way in with their success at 4. The other was Point Given, who, after a Grade 1-winning 2-year-old campaign and a romp in the Santa Anita Derby, rattled off victories the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers before an injury ended his career.
Whether or not Sierra Leone or Fierceness can do enough next year to earn their place in the Hall of Fame, at least they are being given a chance, as Forever Young is to become one of Japan’s greatest equine heroes, up there with Deep Impact and Orfevre, and to a slightly lesser degree Equinox, Gentildonna , Vodka, and Almond Eye. Thorpedo Anna likely has already earned her place in the Hall of Fame, but she is being given the opportunity to achieve legendary status.
If it hasn’t sunk in yet what it means to have Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Forever Young, Thorpedo Anna, and Mystik Dan all coming back next year, it will mark the first time ever we will have the first three finishers of the Kentucky Derby, the first three finishers of the Travers, and the first three finishers of the Breeders’ Cup Classic all being 3-year-olds returning at 4.
And remember Mindframe? How good will he be at 4? If not for his inexperience and having to try to get by a battle-tested tiger like Dornoch twice and then suffering a setback before the Travers he could very well be right up with the others. He currently is back galloping in Ocala.
To demonstrate how long Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young have maintained their form, they were the first, second, and third favorites in the Kentucky Derby and the first, third, and fourth favorites six months later in the Breeders’ Cup Classic . Only the highly publicized Irish invader City of Troy was able to sneak in there as second choice over Forever Young (3.90-1 compared to 4.10-1).
As for Thorpedo Anna she went off at odds of 2-5 in early November, 2023 and 2-5 in early November, 2024. From May to November she ran in six consecutive Grade 1 stakes, winning five and getting beat a head by Fierceness in the Travers Stakes.
Anna Thorpedo, the overwhelming favorite for 3-year-old filly champion, shown here winning the 2024 Kentucky Oaks.
So when was the last time we witnessed what we’re seeing this year?
In 1967, the top three 3-year-olds were Damascus, Dr. Fager, and In Reality, with Fort Marcy the champion grass horse. All came back at 4, with Damascus, Dr. Fager, and Fort Marcy all continuing their Hall of Fame careers. The 3-year-old filly champion Furl Sail did return at 4, winning just one minor stakes in nine starts and never came close to having the reputation at 3 as did Thorpedo Anna, who from all the polls looks to be the overwhelming choice for Horse of the Year over Sierra Leone and Fiercenss.
In 1957, we had three future Hall of Fame 3-year-olds, Bold Ruler, Round Table, and Gallant Man all return at 4 and continue their dominance. But the champion 3-year-old filly Bayou was retired at the end of the year.
In 1972, the 3-year-old male division was dominated by champion Key to the Mint and Derby and Belmont winner Riva Ridge, while the 3-year-old filly champion was the great Susan’s Girl. All returned at 4 and had banner years, but it was difficult finding a third colt to mention in the same breath as the top two. There was No Le Hace early in the year and the grossly inconsistent Freetex later on. One who returned in 1973 to have a productive year on dirt and grass was Jim Dandy winner and Travers runner-up Tentam.
In a similar situation, in 1989 the two dominant 3-year-olds, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, and the 3-year-old filly champion Open Mind all returned at 4, but Open Mind didn’t return until August and finished up the track in both her starts, and there wasn’t another 3-year-old colt even remotely in the same class as the top two.
In 1997, we did have Derby and Preakness winner Silver Charm, Belmont and Haskell winner Touch Gold, and Santa Anita Derby and Swaps winner Free House, who placed in the Preakness and Belmont, all return at 4, but none of them were around or in form after July of their 3-year-old campaign. The 3-year-old filly champion Ajina, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, did return at 4, but won only one Grade 3 stakes in four starts.
So we have had years similar to 2024, but nothing to equal it.
To demonstrate just how rare an occurrence this year is and how much we should appreciate it, five of the last six champion 3-year-old colts did not race at 4, and from 2001 to 2010, only one of the decade’s ten 3-year-old champions came back to race at 4.
So let’s forget the Kentucky Derby trail for now. We have something even more special to look forward to. Yes, the Derby will be on everyone’s lips soon enough as it always is. But for the first time in memory we go into the new year with bigger fish to fry.
Photos courtesy of Bobby Shiflet
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Lol, ‘the audacity to make a spectacle of himself,’ awesome! The nerve of some of these young guns huh?
I appreciate you sharing the Thoro-Graph numbers from time to time. In this game, lil nuggets of info can be rewarding along with the progression of these competitors.
I like the list and I think we have a better than average group heading into the 3 year old season with more to come. We shall see. Hope all stay healthy and safe.
Here’s a terminology question for everyone. What’s the term for the narrow strap that you see around the necks of most horses when they race, and what is it for? It’s unattached to the rest of the horse’s tack, so I can’t figure out its purpose.
I believe it’s for security reasons. Just in case of an emergency.
A tapestry neck strap.
Thank you!
In my previous post about the crop of 2007 I forgot to mention Rags to Riches as the fourth member of the fab four that year which was the closest bunch this Century to the fab four treated by Steve this week … with Curlin being the only one running at 4…
Have a great week ahead every one!
Barnes with a purchase price of $3.2M and in the hands of BB appears to be the focus in a MSW at CD. Why is there so much interest in this colt? Could it be the following
1 – Purchase price?
2 – Pedigree
3 – Connections
4 – First BB horse to race at CD since his suspension
5 – All of the above
I contend #5 is the most likely.
Million spent on a yearling by this colt’s owner isn’t uncommon. None of his multimillion purchases have turned out to be monsters.
Taiba ($1.7M) – 8 starts; 4wins; earnings $2.3M –
Muth ($2M) – 5 Starts; 3 wins; earnings $993K –
Arabian knight ($2.3M) 6 starts; 3 wins; earnings $1.6M
Princess Noor ($1.3M) 5 starts; 3 wins; earnings $363k
Hajazi ($3.5M) 9 starts; 2 wins; earning $317K
Nooni ($1.8M) 5 starts; 2 wins; earning $208K
Coach Prime ($1.7M); 3 stats; 1 win; earnings $68K
Given the above Mr. Sedan needs to fire his Bloodstock Agent.
The colt’s sire Into Mischief is a leading sire. I can fine none of his top progenies that were purchased for millions.
The colt’s dam sire American Pharoah is a TC winner. Do TC winners have stellar records as broodmare sires. Not from the record I keep. Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed were not stellar broodmare sire of TC horses. Seattle Slew was damsire of Belmont winners Lemon Drop Kid and Secretariat was dam sire to Belmont winner A P Indy. Ironically, all 3 are broodmare sire of a BCC i.e., A P Indy, Pleasantly Perfect and Cigar
AP has been a disappointment as a sire I wouldn’t count on him improving his mares.
The connection of BB and Zedan have campaigned horses costing millions. They have won decent races but have not been anywhere near the top on their generations.
With Barnes, the PP and players are the same. Even with a win in the MSW at CD, this colt is unlikely to be a major player in the TC races in 2025.
Why? History!
An ill will evaluation
Counter Point, ya left out option #6! Was the poster referring to Barnes the assistant trainer at 6/5! Just kidding fella.
Barnes was a topic earlier, just a follow-update on that. Good points from you nonetheless.
Hey Counter Point
You make valid points regarding the hype associated with Barnes’ initial start.
I’m very high on the Juddmonte homebred, Caribbean Dream, by Tapit, out of Golden Mischief, by Into Mischief. His dam was a G2 winning sprinter, so you would think CD possess an excellent mix of speed and stamina, top and bottom.
CD has been working well for Brad Cox, and with Florent Geroux in the saddle, I believe he offers good value at 7/2.
Barnes looks incredible….
History? Really?….
I think you make valid points which apply to expensive purchases among all trainers, particularly two year olds in training. Often these horses are fast but can’t stay on the track. It may have something to do with the general fragility of modern horses. I’m also regularly surprised at the prices paid for top racemares as broodmare prospects. Top sires and broodmares are often surprises. I guess we’ll see about Barnes. Name would suggest he’s a good one.
All valid points. However, the long term plan is to win a G1 or two and hope for a lucrative stud deal.
G1 races are a dime a dozen nowadays, regardless of the caliber of horses that compete in such races. Santa Anita is a perfect example. Most G1 or G2 races for two and three year olds are filled with BB horses and a couple or three also rans.
Barnes opens as the 6/5 favorite for his debut, followed by Innovator at a distant 3/1, then Caribbean Dream 7/2, the rest of the field is between 15 and 30/1.
I never was a big proponent of Parchment Party, but i thought today would maybe be his day. Mott brought him back quickly with a nice work, and the pace set up looked promising. He did not fire at all. I have to think it’s over for him; he doesn’t seem to want to be a racehorse.
So one strike and he’s out?
He’s had three races back and is getting less competitive. If a different trainer had him, he’d be accused of running him into the ground.
He we go! You have zero understanding. BB isn!t only trainer not on my hit parade. Unlike you and a couple on here and another site, hero worship isn’t on my agenda.
Isn’t.
I have zero understanding? I’ve never encountered anyone less self aware.
I’m aware of far more than you’re able to process.
Here.
Todd, I’m somewhat surprised they haven’t tried the turf but who knows what derailed Parchment Party in the first place.
There are two full brothers to come so more to contemplate. I haven’t seen the race but I didn’t like the look of Parchment Party on his two previous races.
PP will come around.
I’ve watched the race now. There wasn’t a great deal to write home about Parchment Party just seemed to flatten out on his run.
Doesn’t worry me too much though, I’ve followed Three Technique from day one and at age 7 he gets a Grade 2 win and a Grade 3 win. Bless him.
Davids, I appreciate a horse like Three Technique. Not the most talented horse, but on his day he’ll jump up and fight it out. And to his low key connections, he’s a champion.
Hey Todd .. I’m not a fan of Parchment Party neither. I suppose figuring out a horses strength would be a challenge to most trainers. He may very well need blinkers off, longer distance or surface change, different jock, or love a sloppy track, who knows … variables abound enough to make one scratch their noggin bald.
Unlike some, taking into account PP didn’t race for long period of time.
Winx gave birth this morning (11.25.2024 in Australia) to a colt by Snitzel.
No complications, Mother and foal doing well.
Winx will probably not be bred back this year because how late in the year the foal was born.
Congratulations!
Glad to hear she and her foal are safe and sound.
Laffit Pincay Jr this AM on The Mike Willman Show—-is over-the-top happy about having The San Antonio changed to the Liffit Pincay Jr Stakes—-he was reminiscing about past horses, after the Santa Anita Derby he told Frank Martin there’s no horse that will keep Sham out if the Kentucky Derby winners circle! But there was one…
BB’s BCJ winners and number of 3YO starts –
2002 – Vindication (4/1) Never made a start thereafter
2008 – Midshipman (3/4) Made 4 starts between 3 & 4.
2016 – New Years Day (10/1) Never made a start thereafter.
2018 – Gams Winner (1/1) Made 4 starts with 1 win (6th KD)
2021 – Comiche (1/5) Made 1 start at 3 and finished last by 33 1/4L.
Well, as dismal as the above reads, it’s the record associated with the trainer many consider to the greatest to ever put a bridle on a horse.
What exactly can be extrapolated from the above?
Only one with an ill will would highlight such a record and request comments
Is Citizen Bull worthy of a KD Future wager?
With the above as my guide. Not even with my enemy’s money
Well Counter Point, including Citizen Bull, that comes to be about a 27.7% win in the last 22 years in BCJuveniles. Not to shabby.
I think when most people play KDFutures, it’s more of a novelty bet for fun, bragging rights, or a means of disposing disposable income too as gambling hubs happily accept. Novelties or prop bets are available for those who wish to do so.
Interesting how much spin he generates.
The Kentucky Derby is the best wager! You don’t need futures, the Derby pays big, and your horse is in the race—Journalism has caught my eye, I might drop a small futures wager—the key word is SMALL, I don’t enjoy betting a horse that does not make the race!..
Counter, your insights have validity regarding last post. Many from that barn never reach their full potential.
Do Deuce wins the Japan Cup but Shin Emperor was flying home to just miss it. What a race!! Shin Emperor just keeps improving. Heart stopping!!
The send off for Auguste Rodin was incredible. Most everyone remained in the stands.
The Japanese truly love the sport and the horses.
Congratulations to Do Deuce. Just a side note, goes back to Secretariat twice in the pedigree.
Shin Emperor should be a force to be reckoned with at 4.
I never saw that Lynda, which is disappointing. As soon as they crossed the line they went to a bush race somewhere in NSW and never went back to Japan.
It was a thrilling race to watch live though, the Australian race caller had no idea where the real runs were coming from, bizarre, he just kept commenting on the leading two or three leaders.
PS: Shin Emperor’s performance over the year has been a great promotion for Sottsass, his full brother and Arc winner, who has been sold to Japan just recently.
Shin Emperor’s immediate family on the damside is truly spectacular and he is a gutsy horse. Wish I had caught the feed! I imagine I can find it on Youtube.
And did! Do Deuce all the way from the back of the pack. Davids, do think he has a chance to be Japanese horse of the year?
I would think so Ms Blacktype, Do Deuce has won the two big races together Teno Sho (Autumn) Group 1 and Japan Cup Group 1 although he was a flop on soft going earlier in the year.
Thanks, David! I figured he might given his record.
Hi Davids!
Shin Emperor shows current odds of 43 to 1 in my betting platform… this lack of respect means good returns for us the fans still having faith in his talent…
He is the key horse in my trifecta for sure…! and lets what happens in this fantastic renewal of the Japan Cup
I hit the Trifecta of the Japan Cup…. Good night and chin chin chin!
Hope you are also collecting dear Davids!
Good for you, Nelson.
Congratulations Nelson.
3-Do Deuce (9/5) first, 7-Shin Emperor (32/1) and 10-Durezza (15/1) in DEAD HEAT FOR SECOND in the 2024 Japan Cup.
Nelson, did you catch the race both Do Deuce, way back, and Shin Emperor inside started their runs together. The caller here didn’t see Shin Emperor until late but I could see he him gathering momentum. My heart was literally pounding.
Shin Emperor should be a better 4 year old. Exciting + Yes, nice little wager win/place.
Exciting horse indeed!
Nice promotion for Sottsass as well, having been just sold to Japan.
David, again I was unable to reply to you below…
Yep, I’m definitely going to get a BritPass – and take advantage of the Network Railcard for when I’m in Kent. Even the BritPass is expensive – but worth it to me because of all the traveling I’ll be doing
I know that there’s a terrific bus system that will help me see the Yorkshire Dales – but there’s no doubt I’ll need to use buses a lot elsewhere because trains just can’t go to all places. This is so unlike America, where it’s almost impossible to travel without a car
Thanks for the link!!!
By myself!
I’m so envious, Betsy! I could spend weeks in the U.K. — and not even see all the places I want to visit, professional and personal. Have a wonderful trip.
Thank you, Ms. Blacktype ! It’s been a dream of mine forever – no time like the present
I know! Even for almost 3 months, there’s not enough time !
Where have you been?
Betsy, the public transport cost in England is shocking. Here in the state of Victoria where I live, which is larger in size than England, you can buy an all day ticket to travel anywhere within the state for only $10.50 while the weekend is only $7.50.
You are probably doing this, but search the daily trips arranged in the local areas where you are staying. You’ll have company as well.
David, wow! What a great deal!
You mean like bus tours? I’m definitely going to do one in Wales – there’s a great all day, small group tour, that focuses on Snowdonia. I might do another one that focuses on the settings where one of my favorite shows is filmed, too
Yes Betsy, they combine bus & train together as they are often connected at various points.
I love that … it’s impossible to do that here, you really need a car
I’ll have to find a pub to watch the Kentucky DARBY, lol
Betsy, you should register with At The Races when you’re there just to be sure. It’s Free. They show the Kentucky Derby live.
I will David, thanks!!!
Have a wonderful trip!
Thank you so much, Lynda!!
Three possible races for White Abarrio, Harland Holiday on Decrmber 21, Pegasus and Dubai World Cup.
Winnings to date over 5.2 million.
First purchased for 7,500 in 2020 then for 40,000 in 2021.
19 starts, 9 wins,1 place. Still racing at age 5.
Impressive I think. Often the best horses are purchased for little or nothing compared to the million dollar plus babies.
Best wishes for continued success and staying healthy.
Something of interest….in today’s second race at Del Mar ($54,000 two year olds) represented by the sons of Into Mischief, Uncle Mo, Nyquist etc. there is a horse, Rodriguez (Authentic) that worked and ‘blown’ away with by Barnes in a workout about a month ago. It will be interesting to see how Rodriquez runs today with that in mind.
Hey John
Romanesque and Rodriguez battled nose to nose on the stretch run, but Romanesque proved best by 2 1/4 lengths at the wire.
I’m very impressed with Romanesque’s pedigree, especially on the tail-female side with the Ogen Phipps influence of Private Account and Numbered Account.
There are those that have said California Chrome’s success was due to the inbreeding of Numbered Account on his dam side.
At any rate, suffice to say Baffert is loaded with top 2yr. old colts moving forward. Romanesque is just another example.
Hi Steve another member of this year’s 3 year old class to watch next year would be the Lexington Stakes winner Encino. Laid off since that race he has been working again.
Keep an eye on Donut King, by Into Mischief, out of a Carpe Diem mare. Trained by Brian Lynch, Donut King won at first asking, going 5 furlongs in 57.91, drawing off by 2 1/4 lengths over the Churchill track. Look for Lynch to stretch him out in an allowance race down the road.
Little wonder that Into Mischief commands a stud of fee of $250K, his offspring win races with the likes of Citizen Bull, Sovereignty, Donut King, Patch Adams (3rd), and now the highly regarded Barnes set to debut on Wednesday at Churchill.
In addition, there are several Into Mischief 2yr. old colts that have yet to race, so I’m looking forward to seeing how they perform in their debut races.
Over the years, Into Mischief’s success for producing top thoroughbreds, year after year, is hard to match.
Steve Asmussen has an Into Mischief 2yr. old colt set to debut in this evenings Remington card. His name is Inaclassofmyown, by Into Mischief out of a War Front mare, he’s listed at 2-1 on the morning line.
It’s race 8, and the distance is 5 1/2 furlongs.
He sold for $700K at auction.
Wondering how many of his wins Asmussen would trade away for ONE Derby? Stated fifteen years ago he will never prevail on 1st Saturday in May.
Never say never!
Yes, always a chance.
Oh hell Bill, I remember the original namesake for Donut King. My father said that the first Donut King, in particular, was born in 1959 and raced at Del Mar in the early 60’s, was named by Verne H. Winchell (Winchell’s Donuts) and trained by the elder McAnally.
Yet, I don’t think Winchell’s have any more ‘donut’ franchises left in America.
John, that’s the first thing I thought of when I saw that name! Even the spelling is the same.
The stellar cast of top 3-year-olds returning next year reminded me of another year of sophomore dominance. Curlin, Hard Spun and Street Sense were the cream of the crop in 2007.
Street Sense, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday (the easy winner of the Haskell over Hard Spun and Curlin) were retired at the end of their 3-year-old campaigns. They were acquired by Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum to reinforce his incipient breeding operation in Kentucky (Darley’s Jonabell Farm). One can only imagine the epic battles they would have staged in 2008. In the absence of those top runners there was no horse capable of stopping Curlin on becoming the king of the dirt that year.
Twenty years prior to the arrival of that marvelous trio there was another brilliant crop with unmatched collective feats.
Remembering the crop of 1987 always brings a smile of joy and wonder. Steve has recounted many times the exploits of the distinguished members of the 1987 sophomore class.
Worth of praises and ovations are the performances of Alysheba, Bet Twice, Cryptoclearance, Lost Code, Afleet, Java Gold and Gone West. All except the last two came back in 1988 but that year was ruled by Alysheba whose amazing six Grade 1 triumph propelled him to the Hall of Fame.
I am not sure if Fierceness or Sierra Leone will have such spectacular runs or even complete 9 stars like Alysheba did but they rivalry will likely be renewed. It is expected to see at least a couple of matches between the top 2024 leading horses as they both are based in New York. They should be aiming at Grade One and supra-million-dollar races and the menu of those types for older horses is rather limited to five in the East.
Thorpedo Anna will have far more options to flaunt her talent and class…
So, the three-million-dollar Pegasus World Cup Invitational on January may well be an obvious target for Fierceness as it is 9 furlongs at speed-favoring Gulfstream … he will likely be faster than he was in his commanding Florida Derby win there.
Then, the 20-million-dollar Saudi Cup and/or the Dubai World Cup in March might be in their plans.
Again, Fiercenss appears to be a world class competitor at the 9 furlongns in Saudi Arabia while Sierra Leone looks to be a better fit for the 10 furlongs of the Dubai World Cup.
They will have enough resting time until June when Fierceness could go to the historic Met Mile as Sierra Leone might opt for the Stephen Foster.
The Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs the first week of August could be a palatable match between the formidable runners.
Unless any of Fierceness or Sierra Leone went for the Pacific Classic, the 10 furlongs of the Jockey Club Gold Cup on September will be their final prep for the Breeder’s Cup Classic two months later.
Fierceness and Sierra Leone need to remain healthy the whole year and get stronger and faster with age to achieve championship honors. Both conditions have proven to be elusive in the pages of the history book; but the way they surmount intrinsic tests and all their challengers will be their measure of greatness.
Nelson, you overlooked Gulch from that 1988 crop of 3 year olds, who was better than some you mentioned and a truly remarkable horse. Among his incredible list of accomplishments is winning the Met Mile as a 3 year old, and then the next year as a 4 year old. Oh, and after his first Met, he ran 3rd in the Belmont
Oops 1987 crop
Take a look at his PP’s – incredible
i certainly had him in my list of returning in 1988 but somehow left him out in the heat of writting the post..thanks Betsy for sharing your knowledge…
Thank YOU, Nelson!
I’m sorry, lol, but Gulch was the first horse I followed from start to finish, and he should be in the HoF, so I’m always looking to make sure he gets his due, lol
Yes Betsy…I had the champion sprinter in my mind but missed him while wrtting…Gulch could stretch his speed to the classic distances as you said…Awesome crop indeed
He was amazing – he didn’t really want to run long by nature, but he almost always ran very well when he did
I think any future crop will find it impossible to top this one…..and that’s not even counting Demon’s Begone and Polish Navy!
Avies Copy was another one who did well…7
Avies Copy was another one who didwell in that class
At the time I thought of him as a sprinter — just like his sire, the incredible Mr. P. Gutsy horse, and a truly great sire.
Nelson, White Abarrio returned in dashing form at Gulfstream Park to win today with consummate ease. The Pegasus World Cup is on the agenda for White Abarrio. Beware.
Rags to Riches was in the 2007 Triple Crown picture as well and, in defeating, Curlin in the Belmont Stakes was the crème de la crème of that crop.
Alysheba always seems to be forgotten as a great horse for some reason which I’ve never quite understood why. That crop, as you say, was star studded.
There are quite a few three year olds that went missing this year who showed above average potential. Their return is highly anticipated, Mindframe in particular.
Things are heating up already.
Japan’s most prestigious race will be run this weekend, the Japan Cup on turf at Tokyo Racecourse. Fortunately, for me it will be run at 5:40 pm on Sunday, Melbourne time.
Goliath, Auguste Rodin, Do Deuce, Cervinia look the toughest to beat but I’ll be hoping for a Shin Emperor triumph. Forget his Arc debacle and put a line through that performance, the trip couldn’t have been worse.
Good luck and enjoy watching one of the world’s marquee racing events of the year.
At the moment the filly Cervina has 3-1 odds.
Hoping for a win by AR. Always like to see a horse win their final race. AR is retiring after this race. But the travel might be a factor though his final work was good.
Davids, is Auguste Rodin going to retire to stud in Japan? Racing so far from Europe suggests that.
Not Davids but jumping in.
The announcement was made in late September that the Japan Cup would be his last race.
No Ms Blacktype, Auguste Rodin is retiring to Coolmore Ireland. Coolmore are hoping that Auguste Rodin wins the Japan Cup to interest Japanese breeders in sending their mares to Ireland.
Davids and Lynda, I’d say that’s a good bet. The Japanese seem to be willing to do anything to get the best possible horses.
Ms B, I agree. Japan has a history of seeking out the best stallions and mares from all over for their breeding operations. Probably one reason why the Thoroughbreds are still the most diverse and not as inbred as American horses
Mike Repole made multiple purchases in Japan and is said to be considering getting a license to racehis horses there.
Ms Blacktype, Coolmore are always thinking every angle. If Auguste Rodin we’re to be less successful as Coolmore expect – precocious, 2 year old stakes winners – Japan is the most logical country to unload him to. A win in the Japan Cup would enhance his price tag.
Especially with Deep Impact (by Sunday Silence) as his sire. I’d like to see more of that Sunday Silence blood on this side of the planet. Thanks to you both!
Yes, same. As Lynda mentioned above buying mares and fillies from the Halo line, as Mike Rapole has done, might be the best way of achieving that.
A few have been tried as sires in the US but to little success. Unless, the prospective sire has run on dirt in the US with Grade 1 wins + good pedigree it’s nye impossible to get the mares.
Sodashi, the white unicorn, is in foal to Equinox.
That should be an interesting one to follow.
David, I couldn’t reply to you below
Ah, I loved West Will Power – either the Wests didn’t try hard enough to get him a stud deal here or breeders truly had no interest. He deserved better 😢
🤞🤞🤞🤞 to Spurgeon indeed – but if he doesn’t win, I’m ok with Executive!
The Korean breeders were probably very keen to replace the loss of Take Charge Indy with West Will Power.
Good point, David!
Well, Betsy, it was Morlock who performed the best of the three but only second anyway. I haven’t seen the race yet so can’t comment further.
David, I was disappointed in Spurgeon’s race – he finished fourth with a very mild closing kick. Now he did stumble slightly at the start, and the pace was very slow….AND I don’t think Brian have him a great ride because I think he shouldn’t have taken the colt back to last. I expected him to show more tactical speed, so unless BH Jr didn’t want to rush S off his feet (he’s a big colt), I don’t get it. That said, we have almost a full crop to evaluate HAP, and unfortunately it appears that his offspring are more like Honor Code (not as bad) than like him
He galloped out well, but I don’t think that’s significant
I’m pretty discouraged. HAP has a nice turf filly in Little Mo, and nice SW filly in Glee (but not graded stakes quality), but unless Rank becomes a TC contender, and Dazzle AP is good one, I’d have to say that his first crop was highly disappointing
Still feeling good about him and others for early next yr. Rome wasn’t built in a day.
It’s possible I’m being too negative, but I really expected him to win – I think if he were the horse I thought, he would have. I guess there’s always next time, but I’m kind of tired of the plodding types – and I’m just tired of getting my hopes up only to be disappointed
He’s still in my virtual stable, though – I haven’t given up all hope
Betsy, go and listen to the Peter Gabriel and Kate Bush song “Don’t Give Up” – loud – you’ll feel much better.
I know how disappointing it can be but then along comes a “Flightline” and your heart will roar.
Eventually maybe, lol – I’m not even asking for half a Flightline, but Indy’s best sons have either passed away or are getting old, so that’s why I’m so emotionally invested in seeing. HAP succeed
But, it’s still only a sport, which I’m constantly reminding myself of, lol. AND, I’m waist deep in planning a near 3 month stay in the UK starting in April, so no matter what, I’m still pretty happy, lol
How many times did FL race? Way too few.
Betsy, I know exactly how you feel. Watching the Ribot sideline wither away was so disappointing but A. P. Indy has all the sons of Tapit to continue the line on strongly.
And…don’t say you hate Tapit. Ha ha
Have you been to the Cotswolds before? If you haven’t you must go there it’s pure magic. Look it up, it’s like walking back into history.
By the way, let’s hope Mind Control is a success in New York. 123 mares were bred to him this year. I fear he’s the last chance for the Bernardini line to continue on in the US.
David, lol – of course I love Tapit!
But his sons are not my favorites – not that I don’t like them!
I just really believed in HAP…he is not going to get a long rope because his sire was essentially kicked out of this country, and he’s only bred 39 mates the last 2 years. So that’s why each failure hurts
Mind Control was so fast, game & tough. I LOVED Stay Thirsty – I hope MC succeeds. I think Bernardini’s legacy overall will be as a BMS, but I agree that if MC doesn’t succeed, his male line is pretty much done
I’ve never been to the Cotswolds – I intended to do a day tour when planning my trip in 2020, but of course that was canceled due to the pandemic
I’m spending a month in Kent – Tunbridge Wells- and almost 2 months in Yorkshire (2 bases) before heading to London for a week, I needed to stay in places with excellent public transportation links since I don’t have a car
Betsy, I’d invest in a BritRail Pass through thetrainline dot com to assist you around the countryside as trains in the UK are ridiculously expensive.
Also, look up local bus services they have bargain prices and on shopping trip buses to larger towns. It’s fun too.
Cotswold trips via cotswoldtourbus dot com might help you as well. Are you going alone or with a friend?
Another nice three year old, is Eagle’s Flight, so far only the one maiden start–an impressive win—he worked beautifly today—for Sadler…a half by Curlin to Flightline–he is built!..
I hope that the tracks will do all they can to entice these horses to get to the gates! We are thrilled about this at our house.
So, I have an Amazon comment and question (and thought about putting it with John and Matthew’s thread), but I’d like some help with it. I need the Google foo of this specialized hive-mind! I think we might all enjoy this. Has anyone seen the Amazon shop called Handicapping Horse Gear? It appears that Amazon has some stock photos and prints the shirts on demand. So probably none of the proceeds go for TB aftercare or to buy hay or anything, just to Bezos.
They do have all of our favorites… except for Sierra Leone! Oh, he has a shirt, but he is decidedly NOT on it! It’s a chestnut horse with a pretty dished face, bold white blaze or wide star-stripe, and Ben Curtis appears to be riding. I believe these are Godolphin silks – blue, very plain. Red saddle cloth, wearing number 1. Who is this horse who is SO not Sierra Leone? I have exhausted my ability to recall or find it, and I hate being stumped! Not to mention, this is SO rude to Sierra Leone!
Why was I on this? Friday is “jersey day” at school, and the kids can wear clothes supporting their favorite college or pro team. The kid and I were shopping for a Thorpedo Anna shirt, which is how we found this stuff. That’s definitely ‘erself, winning the Acorn, on the TA shirt.
Thanks in advance to those of you who want to play! I sure miss the old horse hats site.
David, I responded to you below!
Betsy, I responded below about Friday’s race. I realized too late I should have responded here. Sorry.
No need to apologize, David – response below!
The Cartier Awards for European racing had few if any surprises last night. Noting that the voting guarantees English runners inevitably win most awards every year.
Points are awarded to Group races 40%, Racing Post and The Daily Telegraph newsreaders allocate 30%. British Racing journalists allocate 30%. If you think the nationalistic tendencies are long gone, think again. lol!!
Anyway, City of Troy won Cartier Horse of the Year and Three-Year-Old Colt; Charyn won Cartier Older Horse; Kyprios won Cartier Stayer; Porta Fortuna Cartier Three-Year-Old Filly; Bradsell won Cartier Sprinter; Shadow of Light won Cartier Two-Year-Old Colt; and Lake Victoria won Cartier Two-Year-Old Filly.
Racing’s national treasure Jessie Harrington was the recipient for the Cartier/The Daily Telegraph Award of merit for 2024.
Was Rebels Romance ever in the mix for HOTY?
Why would he be? The only performance Rebel’s Romance provided in Europe was a third in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
David,
Even a tepid response in better than none. I appreciate the time taken you have taken to respond
In 2024 COT won 3 of 5 starts with all his wins in G1 stakes. His Epsom Derby winning time was the 4th slowest in the last 40 years. In his two defeats he was beaten a combined 30L.
In 2024 Rebel Romance won 5 of 6 starts with 4 of his wins being in G1 Stakes. In his sole defeat was beaten by 5 1/4L. Each of his 6 starts were in a different country. He was odd year repeat winner of the BC Turf Classic.
Despite the challenges of shipping, different tracks and time zones, rebel’s Romance was competitive in all his races. The aforementioned are challenges that few are capable of overcoming. His 6-race sequence might be unprecedented in the modern era.
In what part of the world would a horse with such race a record and accomplishments not deserve a mention for HOTY?
Did COT remotely face the challenges RR faced? Did Torpedo Anna the front runner for HOTY in the US face the challenges that RR faced?
The globetrotting Rebels Romance took his show on the road everywhere and delighted racing fans. But he is like a horse without a base country so he cannot be considered for HOTY. What nonsense!
Sometimes we are required to abandon traditional measures for year-end awards, particularly when greatness mandates us to so, do.
The above isn’t an attempt to be controversial or an exhibition of ill-will. I just have a different way of viewing things. There must be some forum that my way of thinking can find favors.
The snow that often covers the ground, never covers the hope of spring. So, I continue to hope.
Counter Point, I deliberately stressed how the voting, point system works in the Cartier system and, moreover, how the general public and racing journalists in England nearly always tend to vote for the home team when it’s actually supposed to be voted on European, not just English, racing results. Xenophobia is still as rife as ever in England.
As explained previously,, sometimes I’m rushing to work when posting so have to be brief. Nonetheless, I thought it was self evident by the explanation above that Rebel’s Romance would have little, if any, consideration.
Porta Fortuna’s win is especially sweet.
Reeves Thoroughbreds (located in Georgia) is an owner and her sire, Carrivaggio, was sold to Japan by Coolmore because he did not meet their expectations.
She also goes back to Secretariat both sire and dam lines.
Yes Lynda, Porta Fortunate’s win was a favorite as well. I would have given Bluestocking the Horse of the Year Award. The Arc is what everyone wants to win and she did it.
I agree Davids.
RE: Churchill Downs, Wednesday, 11-27, Race #7, 5 1/2 furlongs.
I’ve noticed several comments on the $3.2 million dollar colt, Barnes, debuting in referenced race. Why would Baffert ship one of his top colts all the way across the country to debut in a maiden race? Could it be he’s trying rank the chains of the powers that be at Churchill. A subtle way to let them know that he’s bringing his top Derby prospect for all to see. Nothing would give Baffert better satisfaction than having a Derby winner, and say to Churchill, “in your face”.
However, first things first. Barnes needs to win a few races to qualify for the Derby, so a win on Wednesday would be a good start.
The colt I’m leaning to is Caribbean Dream, by Tapit, out of Golden Mischief, by Into Mischief. He’s a Juddmonte homebred, in the capable hands of Chad Brown.
On November 15th, he fired a 5-furlong bullet in 59.60 (1/20), so it appears he’s well cranked for his debut race.
It will be interesting to see the morning line on Barnes and Caribbean Dream.
May the best horse win.
$120 K race and at CD.
Extra $45 K for Kentucky bred winner…
Plus—There aren’t any Spring preps, at Churchill Downs, maybe they want to see how he likes the place–and how he ships…the $120 K plus the extra $45K added onto the winner’s share is a nice payday, for a maiden victory—he is a really good looking horse!..
And kind of fitting to send him out of town, where Barnes will be saddled by…..Barnes!
He has to win first.
BB has always shipped out and has an above 30% rate of success. Barnes did a 58 flat from the gate as I’m sure you are already aware of.
Shipping and different surroundings plus
performance in the race will reveal alot. Should be fun to see!
What am aware of is how many doesn’t hold up to his fast works.
I was replying to Bill, sorry the the mix up.
*for*
Hello Bill,
I hope all is well.
I still cannot understand why there is a reference to CD personnel as ‘The Powers That Be’
In successive years a BB entrant in the KY Oaks & KY Derby had to be disqualified for violation of the drug level in system on race day policy. The management of CD took a hard line, given BB was only fined for the KY Oaks violation.
To follow up with the same drug being over the limit in the KY Derby the very next year, is inexcusable. BB behavior after the reported violation was not in his best interest and must have contributed to CD’s decision viewed as harsh by many.
Consider the following. Since Dance Image the first KD winner to be disqualified from a medication infraction. There have been two in CD’s signatory race for 3YO fillies and Colts & Geldings. Both were by horses trained by BB.
When one trainer is stands alone with medication infractions since the first reported. Do not expect any latency particularly when the trainer isn’t contrite. There should never have been any demonization of CD for their decision. They were not the at fault party in the matter. The party at fault should a have acknowledged an infraction had occurred hope for the best.
Not expecting a response,of course, but your comments are spot on.
Why is Barnes regarded as one of BB’s top colt? The colt hasn’t made a start to be so classified.
I am constantly criticized for my repeated referencing of history. But how can history not provide lessons.
In 2021 BB has a colt that was all the rage by the name Bszos. He was highly and assigned the classification of BB’s best colt. he height of his regards led to him being listed as a betting interest in one of the KD Future before even making a start.
To my utter surprise the unknow quantity took action to the tune of $35K. Talk about buying ‘puss in a bag’; pig in a poke. Another of BB’s colt as being hyped as his best before its debut. There are obviously no lessons leant from the Bezos.
One could also mentioned Cezanne the $3.6M Curlin colt. To quote BB. ‘He’s really talented.” I expect big things from him.” He won a G2 & G3 stake and two other wins from 7 starts before his untimely passing.
Our interest shouldn’t be greater for the horses from the big outfits. The last 3 winners of the KD (Rich Strike/Mage/Mystik Dan) should provide the requisite guidance
To every Bezos and Cezanne there is Justify, American Pharoah, Arrogate, 7 KD Champions, 10 3-year-old male horses champions etc…
Now, that is what you call a ‘counterpoint’.
Checkmate, mate.
Hi John Goggin
There’s no reason for me to reply to Counter Point, your comment is spot on regarding Baffert’s top colt’s. I could not have said it better than you have.
Baffert’s record for training top colts is the reason why owners flock to him, year after year.
Bill, my other comments intended for above.
According to some, we must assume big money partnerships buying top colts are under a certain trainer’s spell. The expertise and money possessed by these owners are no match for the trainer’s superpowers, so time after time they are powerless to act in the interest of their horses or wallets. Or maybe they send their horses to the trainer who will give them the best chance to profit on their investments?
You never can help yourself. He’s ruined plenty! Let’s dispense with the tired charade.
Hey John! Least we forget Coliseum.
My current top twelve 2yr. old colts, in no particular order.
Citizen Bull
Bullard
Gaming
Render Judgment
Sovereignty
East Avenue
Showcase
Authentic Strike
Grayscale
Built
Journalism
Chancer McPatrick.
I’m very high on David of Athens, so he should be included on my list.
Make that list “My top thirteen colts”
Hello Bill .. nice list… Admiral Dennis didn’t make the cut?
Hey kmi
Thanks for the heads up on Admiral Dennis, I missed his impressive maiden win on Nov. 7th., at Churchill. There’s a lot of 2yr. old colts to keep track of, and the races that they enter. Going a mile, in 1:35.87, in his 2nd start, certainly stamps him as one to watch moving forward.
Welcome Bill .. yeah, the 2025 season has already begun to percolate with the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club and Remsen right around the corner. Never a dull moment when we are on the Kentucky Derby trail.
I am not familiar with some on your list. But as previously stated I will always refer to you regarding 2YO as you have the eyes for identifying talent.
I have taken an interesting Eoin Hartey 2YO contingent. The best at the moment appears to be First Resort. But there is a colt by the name Poster that I consider to be amongst Godolphin’s best 2YOs, if not the best. However, there is a significant issue.
He is undefeated in 2 starts with both being on turf. Both wins were impressive given his pedigree screams dirt. He is by Munnings and out of Pin Up a lightly raced Tapit mare. One has to search hard to find a more balances 2YO. Whilst in full flight there is no wasted motion. His stride mechanics is almost perfect.
I suspect he will be contesting the major Turfway Park, KD preps. I have little doubt that if he takes to the AW surface, that he will qualify for the KD. But can he run on dirt? When they are that good on turf the prospect of them being good on dirt is a lot less.
He has a foaling date of May 20th. The manner in which won on debut 3 months after turning fully 2, suggest that with 5 months plus to the KD, he should be in monster status if he can run on dirt.
Obviously, I could be totally wrong about this colt. However, when a colt with a late May foaling date (Norhtern Dancer) shows that kind of ability so early indicates talent galore.
Steve, I think I prefer the above name Anna Thorpedo rather than Thorpedo Anna. Lots of memories here and something I hadn’t realized either. Just shows you, you can learn something new everyday.
As much as I enjoyed your column, I have a few quibbles though. Ha ha In Reality won the Met Mile and the Carter H. So, as a four year old he wasn’t totally overshadowed by the two giants altogether.
Awe Inspiring won the Flamingo Stakes, American Derby, Jersey Derby in 1989 and was only a head third in the Kentucky Derby behind Easy Goer in Sunday Silence’s 2 1/2 length Derby win. So, I think Awe Inspiring deserves more credit than “there wasn’t another 3 year old in the same class as the top two.”
Furthermore, not to forget that as four year olds the fabulous Easy Goer and Sunday Silence ran into an older horse that had both their measure – Criminal Type – the 1990 Horse of the Year. No one saw that coming so beware you Fab Four of 2024 your place in the sun might be short lived.
That’s the trouble with everything historical, the winners make up all the history and many things are forgotten in the wake of their triumph. I’m generalising here, obviously, but unless you study something intensely so much of the grey is brushed away to make the story so black and white.
As always, a cherished read Steve.
Just to reply to your comments. Every crop with two superstars is going to have a third one somewhere. At the end of 1989 Awe Inspiring wasnt even around and was not mentioned in the class of Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. The top three this year were very close and thaats what we’re getting next year, the three best, not the two best and aother one. Plus Awe Inssprinng was retired at 3 so he doesnt have anythinng to do with the column and no eason to mention him.
As for In Reality, what he did at 4 again has no relevance to this column. I didnt mention what Damascus and Dr. Fager did at 4 so why should I mention In Reality, who still wasnt in the class of the two Hall of Famers. He was a very good 4yo but he won the Met only because Dr. Fager came down wih colic and missed the race. He wouldnt have come near Dr. Fager at a mile. But again that has nothing to do with this column and when I said not in the same class, again I was talking about at 3. This whole column is about 3yo crops.
Same goes for Criminal Type. What he did at 4 was is irrelevent.
But thanks for the comments. I hope I helped explain the main context of the column
Thanks Steve. I wasn’t actually critiquing your column specifically but commenting, more broadly, on how history, whatever history that may be, is always seen through the prism of the victor/champion..
That’s the trouble with the internet, nuance is somewhat lost to the reader as they interpret meaning in relation to what/how they perceive things from their understanding/experience.
As you explain, I had forgotten Dr. Fager had to be withdrawn from the Met Mile so the victory by In Reality wasn’t really as great as I ‘remembered’ it from that time.
Steve, I’m not sure what’s going on with my replies to you – they’re posting elsewhere
I won’t repeat again except to ask what you think of Rank
Thanks!
What do you mean by posting elsewhere?
Rank is a monster in the morning, but as you know he hasnt been able to break his maiden in five starts. Tough ask to put him in the Futurity. His last race was by far his best but he ran into a horse I have ranked in my Top 5 right now.. He should win his next start, but he better because when you keep getting beat it tears down a young horse’s confidence. With his pedigree he should want distance and while youre in love with his sire, Touch Gold is one of my all-time favorites. Doug HAS to find the right spot for him next time. Maybe taking the blinkers off would help. Who knows?He needs to try something to get him to win.
I posted two times to you, below, and they keep posting as replies to other people, so I wasn’t sure you’d see them…
At this point I kind of discount his sprint races, 2 of which were good, because he’s much, much better as a router. But I agree – he needs to get a win, though he’s a tough colt – physically & mentally.
I think the jock didn’t want to let Mellencamp get away from him, so he let Rank do what he wanted – no one could predict that the huge long shot would engage up front. Rank was mid-pack in his previous race, so he’s not a speed demon. I think he wears blinkers because of greenness – but he’s much less goofy since stretching out.
I love Journalism as a Derby prospect, but I think he hugely benefited from the duel – US Timeform confirms this. But this is not me as a fan of HAP – if I thought Rank was meh, believe me – I’d say so
I love that his damsire is Touch Gold – and my friend reminded me that he’s got Quadratic also on his dam side
If he runs again this year, I think Doug needs to ship him East – there are no races longer than 1 mile in CA, and Rank wants longer
Looking forward to your list
Thanks!
Ironic how Steve stated in his November 18th column that the top 3-year-old colts and the top 3-year-old filly will all return to racing in 2025.
Well, November must be the month for returns or announcing returns….Trump returns to the WH, Yellowstone returns to TV and Baffert could possibly return to CD.
And here I thought that only Amazon handled returns.
Wifey shops online, I’m a regular, at UPS, returning things….the new way of shopping!..
Given choice of any two year old right now—I’m taking Journalism..
He is in my Top 5 right now as you will soon see.
No surprise to me, Steve! You have an eye for talent! He ran lights out, the other day!—and Barnes will be unveiled, this weekend, I saw a pucture of him training…WOW! We shall see if he runs as good as he looks!…
Matthew, I thought Barnes was running at Churchill Downs on Wednesday the 27th in race 7? Has this changed?
No I heard he was running I thought it was thus weekend..
Thanks Matthew, I thought I was missing something. Too much hay fever medications, Panadol, and toothache gel with little sleep is taking it’s toll.
I was up this morning watering the garden at 5 am with a respirator mask on to fight off the pollen. From tomorrow onward we are having 3 days of 95 degree temperatures or over. That’s watering every day.
How do you feel about Rank, who did all the dirty work?
US Timeform number is 103, same as Journalism, but his pace figures are much faster
I know he hasn’t won, his 2 route races were excellent – this last was a fantastic performance. He’s a big, sturdy colt, too
Who trains Rank?
Doug O’Neill
Sorry for the essentially duplicate posts – I was having trouble before
Thanks!
I meant to ask you about Rank – see below. He and Journalism got the same US Timeform fig, a very strong 103, but Rank had much faster pace figs
He’s a big, strong colt who’s a born router – he ran a fantastic race on Sunday
Barnes (Zedan $3.2 million purchase) entered to (MSW) run at Churchill Downs on 11/27/24 7th race 5 1/2 furlong. PP 3 with Martin Garcia in the saddle. A lot going for him in this race. Hope he gets a good start.
Thanks Downthestretch. Good research.
It looks like it might happened….The Lousiville Courier Journal has just posted an article on this within the past hour….big hype or big disappointment….looking forward to the race.
And getting back to Steve’s article it looks like the Apple Blossom in April might be Thorpedo Anna’s next race while both Fierceness and Sierra Leone might target the Pegasus World Cup in January.
Yes, Downthestretch, a long way to travel for a 5 1/2 furlong Maiden race as well. The Tapit – Golden Mischief colt Caribbean Dream trained by Brad Cox could be anything and I bet the Army Mule colt can sprint.
Cezanne
Steve, thank you for putting all this in its historical context. Your timing in writing “Fab Four Revival” shortly before Thanksgiving is most apt as you’ve reminded us racing fans how much we have to be thankful for!
Well said
I did not realize that Secretariat only interacted with one horse, at Claiborne, Spectacular Bid—and was friends with the lanky grey, while Bid was there….
I got to meet both of them when I visited Claiborne in 1984. Was that ever a dream come true!
Would have been my dream too !!! Lucky You !!!
Stallions nomally will only “interrac” with their immediate neighbor and they were neighbors and would often stand by the fence at the same time.
Loved reading the possibilities of today’s star’s with the challenge to match yesteryears champions.
It makes for an exciting 2025 season to come. Looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.
Dragoon Guard, Catching Freedom (if he comes back), Imagination, Most Wanted, Muth, and returning 4 years old can all get in the revival fray as well. Realistically I can’t see any horse dominating this division. Hope all stay safe and healthy.
Matt and David –
I’m not sure what fig Journalism will get, but Rank is going to get a US Timeform fig in the mid-100s, which is very strong. So obviously Journalism will get a strong figure as well
That was a very good race. Rank is nominated to the Los Al Futurity – I wonder if he’ll run there
And I expect Spurgeon to win on Friday – he’s a good one
Betsy, the Bernardini colt, Morlock and the Construction colt, Execuative are just about ready to win as well.
I think Executive might too strong here.
David, you know I love Bernardini, but to me Morlock is “eh” – I just think he’s limited
Executive is an unknown on dirt – he’s certainly bred for dirt, so why did he run on turf 2x? But he could be a big threat if he takes to dirt.
Publisher may be ok. Not sure what to think of the Cox horse going from turf…
But to me, Spurgeon is a huge overlay at 6-1 on the ML – for a horse who has already run very well, at the Spa no less- he’s getting little respect. But I considered him my Derby horse after his second start, and I have huge expectations for him
Betsy, the turf races are much longer and, moreover, kinder on those tender developing limbs/shins of 2 year olds. I would say Mott believed there was little value on running Executive in races shorter than a mile on dirt. He’s been doing it for as long as I can remember with certain 2 year olds.
As for Morlock, I’m hoping for a son to replace Bernardini. Time is running out.
Makes sense, David.
Kenny ran Spurgeon on turf in his debut because he wanted to run him long, said he wasn’t quick enough to sprint. Even though he said he was a dirt horse, S ran very well on turf….
I AM very confident in Spurgeon, but I’ll keep an eye on Executive
TBH, Bernardini’s legacy is going to be through his daughters, so while I hope he sires a good son, I’m not really concerned if he does.
Betsy, where’s there’s life there’s hope. Without Seattle Slew the Nasrullah line would be mere folk lore. All you need is one good son to keep the line afloat.
West Will Power could become the Sunday Silence of Korea. Ha ha I never give up hope.
I like Spurgeon as well so fingers crossed.
Betsy, I would be fairly certain that Rank will run in the Los Alamitos Futurity if everything goes well until then.
Not sure if you caught in Steve’s previous column but Honor Code had 152 mares visit him this year in Japan which is a very good number all things considered.
David, I could see that – especially as Calumet has done things like that before. I have mixed feelings about it – I might be ok if Bob doesn’t run Gaming.
I didn’t see it in that column, but I knew about it -and that makes me so happy. I don’t think Lanes End bred him to the right mares, and I think the Japanese will. Someone posted a video of him recently, and he honestly looks like he’s smiling – he’s so happy. I was upset when he was sold, but now I’m glad he was –
Betsy, you know Bob Baffert will be running something in the Los Alamitos Futurity no matter what.
Imagine if a son of Honor Code from a Sunday Silence line mare were to win the Triple Crown for Japan.
Sad, but true, lol – I think Bob us compelled to run at least one baby in every baby race; it’s like if he doesn’t, he goes through withdrawal 😂
I’d love it – stick it to American breeders twice over!
See my first reply to you below, but I saw you mentioned Phar Lap in the previous post. He’s in the top 3 of favorite horses ever – Man o’War, Slew then Phar Lap. He’s probably underrated here because so many don’t know him. The movie is so wonderful, and devastating – they told his story so beautifully, and the racing scenes are spectacular. The horse who played Bobby was the spitting image of him … 🥺🥺🥺
Hopefully Honor Code will nick well with the Sunday Silence line 🤞🤞🤞
This a perfect opportunity to get know these horses more better when they’re four year olds since horse racing doesn’t get that a lot with many getting send off to the breeding shed. I love Thorpedo Anna and I was fortunate enough to follow her journey. Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Forever Young, and also Sierra Leone coming back to the mix in 2025 should be exciting as well and we should all be jumping up and down in horse racing since this is positive news for horse racing fans.
Some folks resent a historic perspective as it relates to horses from certain barns. But sometimes it is wise to incorporate historic trends in our projections.
Sierra Leone –
A lot of Chad Brown’s top 3YO dirt horses either never ran as 4YOs or were not as dominant the following year. The ultra disappointing Zandon comes to mind. He was 3d in the KD and didn’t contest the BCC as 3YO but was nevertheless highly thought of. He made only 4 starts as a 4YO winning once.
Fierceness –
TP has Vino Rosso to lean on as an unplaced KD entrant who returned to win the BCC as a 4YO. He was never as good as Fierceness as either a 2YO or 3YO. But interestingly finished 9th in his KD compared to Fierceness’ 15th place finish. He never contested He BCC as a 3YO. His 4YO career of 6 starts was a mixed bag of 3 win and 3 defeats.
Flower Alley finished 9th in the KD and returned to win the Jim Ddandy and Travers. He like Fierceness also finished 2nd in the BCC of the same year. He only made only 4 starts as a 4YO with 1 win and 3 wide margin defeats.
Stay Thirsty finished 12th in the KD and returned to be 2nd in the Belmont and 1st in the Jim Dandy and Travers. He finished 11th in the BCC of the same year. His 4YO of 4 starts career of 5 starts featured 1 win.
Torpedo Anna –
Swiss Skydiver was arguably a better filly than Torpedo Anna despite losing the KY Oaks. She took on the boys in the Blue Grass (2nd) and out dueled the KD winner and eventual BCC winner in the stretch of the Preakness for a determined wins 2 weeks after her KY Oaks runner up finish. Her heavy workload apparently took its toll as she finished unplaced in the BC Distaff. Her 4YO career featured 4 starts with 1 win and 3 uninspiring defeats
Forever Young –
Very little research was undertaken for the barn of the above colt. However, his 3rd place finish in the 2024 KD was 3 places better than fellow Japanese invader Derma Sotogake who finished the in the 2023 KD.
Interestingly, both colts contested the BCC with only 1 start in 5 months ahead of the KD. The 6th KD runner finished 2nd, and the 3rd place KD runner finished 3rd. Derma Sotogake has not hit the board 4 starts since his 2nd place finish in the 2023 BCC. Forever Young has the more impressive record as a 3YO. But using Dermo as a measure. One cannot be overly optimistic regarding FY’s prospect of being a dominant 4YO.
I like most welcome the return as 4YOs of these top 3YOs. But I will temper my enthusiasm with history the driving force behind my outlook.
Thanks Steve for this insightful article highlighting the historic peculiarity of the anticipated comeback of the best 3-year-olds next year.
Forever Young running as a 4-year-old is a foregone notion. The son of Real Steel will likely be named best 3-year-old this year in Japan and all of the Japanese 3-year-old champions and the majority of the top Japanese sophomores this Century have run as 4-year-olds. Also eleven 3-year-old champions have extended their campaigns at the age of 5 and 2 ran at 6. There are three Triple Crown Champions the last 24 years. Four 3-year-old champions are in the Japanese Hall of Fame with Equinox and Victoire Pisa bound to be inducted in the coming year.
It is expected to see the top Japanese horses running more than the US champions do given the unmatched popularity of the Sport of Kings in the Nippon nation. A 17,000 daily attendance on average at live racing in Japan and its sizable prizes are great incentives to keep the top young horses running in their 4 years of age.
I believe Sierra Leone and Fierceness will have to contend with a host of very talented horses that only need to keep improving to vie for top ranks. Some name comming to mind are Mindframe and Maymun who are getting ready to attempt outstanding campaigns next year.
Other talented 3-year-olds waiting to stand out at some point are Locked, Liberal Arts, Imagination, Stronghold, Dragoon Guard, Generous Tipper, Encino and the New Yorker El Grande O.
There are also two interesting late bloomers Cornell in the West and Godolphin’s Kinetic in the East.
I am not sure if the highly regarded Knightsbridge and Nysos will be totally healthy or even run next year; but if they are able to deploy all their latent power then be ready for new headliners in 2025.
On top of all those scenarios, if Thorpedo Anna is able to stay on top form and successfully run against the boys again, we will have a racing season for the ages.
The older horses proved to be a notch below the younger ones, but if some talented current ones are coming back next year like the improving Hit Show, Subsanador, Full Serrano, Post Time, Arthur’s Ride, Paciffic Classic winner Mixto, Pyrenees and any old Stakes horses from Godolphin’s dynasty, you can count on a very rich Handicap division from East to West.
As we have said so many times, geleded stars are the only ones able to possibly stage stirring races for 2 or more years for the joy of the true fans. While we wait for that durable and brilliant seventy’s like runner we can enjoy a horse racing year that promises to be exceptionally gratifying.
Nelson, Born Noble who has had works at Palm Beach Downs and possibly Speak Easy, not in training at present, are other talented 3 year olds to look forward to next year.
Nysos had 1 work at Santa Anita on October 10 but none since which is not a positive but who knows.
I enjoyed reading your post.
Thanks for your reply Davids.
Yes … the two Constitution colts are in my Virtual Stable as they were two potential big players this year but unfortunately they got injured.
Also, seems like the prominent winner of the Whitney, White Abarrio is coming back strong under his original trainer Joseph…
Hope they can comeback in top form next year to enrich the Handicap division.
White Abarrio could be the Criminal Type of 2025. Mindframe is the colt that interests me more than Sierra Leone or Fierceness returning, he looked special on the short time we saw him.
Counter,we hear the same tune each year from that barn. In 2023, zero wins for Breeders Cup. As for many of his rabid fans his barn is only ride in the park.
I’m so happy that the “big 4” are returning next year – possibly an encouraging sign for the future? I’m one of the many owners of Seize the Grey, who has been retired to Gainesway, yes as a 3-year-old. I wasn’t really surprised at that, as money talks. As a son of Arrogate and a multiple graded stakes and Preakness winner, he’s as rare as hens teeth and worth more in the breeding shed than on the track, especially since he didn’t do anything after winning the PA Derby. It still was a great ride, and I’m proud to be a small part of that journey. Meanwhile, I’m eagerly looking forward to the “big 4” in 2025.
Locked is around, as well, and I hear Maymun has been training, I was high on that colt….by the way—Barnes ..a two year old getting ready for his debut—is a LOOKER!
And Mike Repole’s filly Accuracy—put up a 107 Beyer in her mid October maiden breaker…
I hope they all come back but remember this is about the leading 3yos returning.. I actually had Locked ranked No. 2 before he got hurt. We have had a lot 3yos returning at 4 including Flightline., Knicks Go, and White Abarrio. To have the three leading 3yos is a rarity.
I cant mention names but Baffert has one who could be special. Hes been working lights out and has the pedigree for sure. They are very high on him. I’ll tell you his name once hes entered. It’s hard filling those maiden races out there especially when a Baffert monster shows up. He was also very high on Madaket Road and had to debut him in a stakes . Ran a big race behind an exceptional colt.
Hi Steve
I’m very high on Render Judgment, by Blame, out of a Commissioner mare.
This colt is inundated with stamina influence, top and bottom.
He broke his maiden, going a mile and one sixteenth, in 1:43.83, at Churchill, on Oct. 27th. Keep an eye on RJ moving forward.
Grayscale, by Frosted, out of an Into Mischief mare, was very impressive in breaking his maiden at first asking. He wired the field in a 6-furlong MSW race at Gulfstream Park, drawing off by 4 1/2 lengths, in a good time of 1:11.42.
I mentioned Grayscale in a comment that I posted on Nov. 16th, on your previous article. I’m not sure if your read it, so I just wanted to make sure that you’re aware of this Saffie Joseph, Jr. trained colt.
Render Judgment and Grayscale are on my early KD list.
However, just to be clear, Bullard and Citizen Bull are at the top of that list.
Many thanks for all your articles, they are much appreciated.
Thanks Bill. I’m very much aware of both horses. Been watching races and studying pedigrees the past couple of weeks. Lots of promising colts to sort out.
You’re welcome, Steve.
By early indications, this year’s crop of 2yr. old colts appear to be above average. I’m looking to the colts competing on the Derby Trail, and your assessment of same.
Render Judgement added at Wm Hill today at 90-1…
Still waiting for Grayscale…Journalism started at 100-1, now 60-1
Bullard was 75-1 prior to Dmr win, now 22-1
Thanks for the heads up on those odds, biggy312.
Render Judgment looks mighty enticing at 90-1.
I just might text a relative living in Vegas to lay down a few coins on RJ.
I know the name!….He looks lights out!…
Steve;
If the un-named Baffert horse is ‘Barnes’, he will be racing 5 1/2 f mdn race at CD next Wednesday…$3.2 million horse!
It isnt
Hello everyone.
Steve, I too was surprised to read how rarely it happens that top 3 year olds return at 4!
Dare I be optimistic that a change is coming?
Have a great week everyone.
Like the planets coming into alignment these horse are prepping for conjunction ( the starting gate) , a rare occurrence in our lives and definitely a rare treat! I look forward to when that starting gate opens and we hear those joyful words ” They’re Off”
I’m really surprised that it’s historically rare for the three top 3YO colts to not only race well all year, but be expected to race at 4. What a great idea for a column! You’ve given us something meaty to chew on during racing’s lean months. If he stays sound, Sierra Leone could be racing’s next superstar.
Great read Steve it cant get here soon enough. Love your work,ROGER HOY THORPEDO ANNA
Thank you very much, Roger, She’s a lock