Final 2022 Derby Rankings
This obviously is the final Derby Rankings and we’re reverting back to our old ways with a Derby Dozen to focus on our main win candidates. It’s been a fun ride with lots of twists and turns and interesting back stories. I hope everyone has enjoyed it and now it is time for the nitty gritty. I will analyze everything over the next few days, including post positions, and post my handicapping column on Thursday. ~ Steve Haskin
Final 2022 Derby Rankings
By Steve Haskin
1– Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart – Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
The buzz surrounding him keeps growing with every gallop and workout, and with all the rave reviews there is now a good chance he will go off as favorite, but it still should be close with Epicenter, who has been training at Churchill Downs now for several weeks. Zandon has been pure poetry out on the track whether galloping or working, or just his overall presence. Watching him work an effortless five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 with such long fluid strides you can understand all the praise he’s been receiving. In the work he came home his final quarter in :23 3/5 with the rider’s hands turned down loosely allowing him to do everything on his own. He then galloped out another eighth in :12 2/5 covering the six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 and pulling up seven furlongs in a strong 1:26 2/5. And he is one of few Derby horses who works by himself. If he gets a good trip there is no telling what he is capable of.
2– Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time – Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)
He’s been working at Churchill Downs so long you can call him the house horse. His works have not been flashy, but he is just a professional, workmanlike colt who goes about his business, does what is asked of him, and basically never does anything wrong. We know now he can be on the lead or sit back off the pace. He is reminiscent of American Pharoah, who was a confirmed frontrunner until his final prep in the Arkansas Derby. Once he showed he could rate off the pace you knew the sky’s the limit. That is exactly what Epicenter showed in the Louisiana Derby, which now makes him doubly dangerous, especially with his high cruising speed and ability to come home fast. There was nothing to knock in his six-furlong work in 1:12 1/5, out in 1:26 1/5 in company. I’m sure many will still look at him as the deserving favorite, feeling he will put himself in perfect position just off the pace while Zandon will have to work out a trip from farther back.
3– Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)
For a horse who was ranked No. 1 most of the year and was the favorite in the first four Future Wagers, he has become a bit of an enigma. I still think very highly of him and feel the Blue Grass Stakes was a race he desperately needed, and I liked when I heard he drank a lot of water after the race, indicating he wasn’t fit enough for the race and got tired and should now be ready to take a big step forward. But here is why he has been an enigma. He was out for a long time before returning in the mile and eighth Risen Star Stakes. Because of his issues over the winter, they took it easy with him, and Corey Lanerie just sat on him around the far turn and basically lost any chance of winning. By the time he asked him to run turning into the stretch Epicenter was long gone. He was a lot more tactical in the Blue Grass and moved early to chase the front-running Emmanuel after going five-wide on the first turn. He was able to put him away but had no answer for Zandon’s big closing punch. I don’t like seeing horses passed in the stretch in their final Derby prep, but he did the dirty work in a race that was meant to just get him fit and move forward. Then came his final work in company with Tiz the Bomb when the latter went off too fast and he fell way behind and never was asked to close the gap, as Lanerie decided to just let him work by himself and nailed the time anyway. I do know he is going to be a decent price in the Derby and if you still believe in him you’re going to get great odds on a horse who once was the clear-cut favorite.
4– Messier (Tim Yakteen, Empire Maker – Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)
Like with Smile Happy he was passed in the stretch in his final Derby prep, and by a stablemate who had only one six-furlong maiden race under him. That alone will turn a lot of people off. But also like Smile Happy he chased a very fast horse in Forbidden Kingdom, was coming off a two-month layoff since his 15-length walk in the park in the Robert Lewis Stakes, and desperately needed the race. Working alone at Santa Anita he did everything smoothly and easily going six furlongs in a sharp 1:11 4/5 and I can’t help but feel he is ready to peak on Derby Day and is sitting on a monster race. I also love his Thoro-Graph pattern, which indicates he is ready for a good move forward following his pairing up fast numbers. So again like Smile Happy I am willing to overlook the fact that he was passed in the final eighth and will benefit a great deal from that race coming off a layoff. His namesake, hockey great Mark Messier, was one of the most clutch players in NHL history, and this colt might also be the type to save his best for the big moments.
5– Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
Yes he will have to work out a trip and get through the big field, which will require some luck, and closers have not won many Derbys in the last 10 years, but sometimes you can’t ignore what is right in front of you, and if you leave him out and he wins you will look back to his sensational :35 2/5 final three-eighths and :11 4/5 final eighth in the Wood Memorial, and his whopping 121 late pace figure on Brisnet and realize too late that he was touting you big-time and you ignored it. Although his half-mile final work in :48 3/5 in company with the speedy My Prankster was solid at best I did like the way he did it, with his rider way up in the saddle and doing virtually nothing with him. Unlike Pletcher’s other two Derby horses, Charge It and Pioneer of Medina, who ran five and six weeks prior to the Derby, Mo Donegal had that big effort four weeks out and didn’t need to do as much in his work. They did a lot more working in company and galloping out strongly. And Mo Donegal has had two hard-fought mile and an eighth races. He went into the Wood Memorial a fresh horse off a two-month layoff and now is fit and sharp and ready for a career-best effort.
6– Taiba (Tim Yakteen, Gun Runner – Needmore Flattery, by Flatter)
Everyone agrees he has looked like a freak in his two starts and clearly is the fastest horse in the field. As you well know by now I hate going into the Kentucky Derby off only two lifetime starts and rightly so since it’s been almost 140 years since a horse has won the Derby off so few starts. And on top of that he will have only one work in the four weeks between the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby, and that work was good, but nothing extraordinary. I know he had lots of works before his career debut and Bob Baffert had gotten him very fit, and nothing in racing surprises me anymore. You would think he’s done too much too soon and likely will regress going a mile and a quarter so soon, especially facing 19 opponents, and like with Justify, who had only three career starts, I will let him beat me rather than bank on him defying the history books. As I mentioned his speed figures have been through the roof and he could be a freakishly talented colt who can overcome all handicapping logic. But I will be a spectator and just enjoy the show.
7– White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)
Whether it’s in his races or in his works he always seems to be in the right place, indicating a horse who will do exactly what you want him to do and be wherever you want him to be. In his three-furlong work in :34 2/5 at Gulfstream Park he showed off his athleticism by hugging the rail and cutting the corner beautifully turning for home and galloping out . In his most recent work, still at Gulfstream, which went late in the afternoon, he was a powerhouse in the stretch and galloping out, and was striding out beautifully. He is not a horse who is going to wow a lot people with his brilliance, but he has drawn off in the final eighth to win by open lengths in all four of his victories and somehow managed to get a sensational “1” on Thoro-Graph in the Florida Derby, the second fastest number run by a 3-year-old, topped only by Taiba’s Santa Anita Derby. Not many people are talking about him, partly because of the ridiculously slow closing fractions and mundane final time of the Florida Derby that still has not been corrected and doing all his racing and training at Gulfstream. And it looks as if those fractions are going to stay. I don’t know whether he’s good enough to win or has beaten horses of the caliber he will face in the Derby, but I do know it’s tough to leave him out of the exotics.
8– Simplification (Antonio Sano, Not This Time – Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)
He has pretty much fallen off everyone’s radar screen and his past performances and speed ratings are all over the place, but I have seen too many things I like about him to dismiss him. That is because I don’t know how he wants to run, how fast he really is, and most important how high his ceiling is. And for that reason I am going to strongly consider him in all exotic wagers and even as a win bet at a huge price. I know he’s fast (see the Mucho Macho Man Stakes) and can win on the lead, I know he can close from off the pace (see the Fountain of Youth Stakes), and I know he can win his races by daylight (see all three of his victories by 16, 4, and 3 ½ lengths). In the Florida Derby he reverted back to his old speedy ways due to strategy gone wrong and paid the price, getting caught in the middle of a three-horse speed duel, then a two-horse duel through a rapid Brisnet middle pace figure of 113 before tiring a bit in the stretch to finish third. I can’t help but feel that this colt is a far better than his overall record looks and he is capable of great things when allowed to run his race.
9– Cyberknife (Brad Cox, Gun Runner – Awesome Flower, by Flower Alley)
Although I’m still not sure he is ready take on the leading contenders, as I don’t believe he has beaten top quality fields in his last two starts I can’t ignore the way he’s been working and how he handles this track. He has been moving with great authority, especially in his six-furlong work in 1:12 1/5 in company, in which drew clear from his workmate and then galloped out another eighth in :12 2/5 to complete the seven furlongs in a sprightly 1:24 3/5. In his final work in company with Zozos, more of a maintenance drill, he matched strides with his stablemate, and although he did carry his head a bit high turning for home, he was moving very well in the final eighth to finish on even terms. There is no doubt this colt is coming into his own at the right time. I just don’t know if he’s quite there yet.
10– Charge It (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – I’ll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie)
If this colt only had one more start I would rank him higher based on all the positives I saw in his first two starts and the way he’s been training at Churchill Downs. Working inside stablemate Pioneer of Medina in his final Derby drill he was doing everything well within himself and was just gliding over the ground. It was his mechanics that drew me to him in those first two starts, and I was surprised how greenly he ran in the Florida Derby. But it was a big step up for him and he still was good enough to finish second to White Abarrio, beaten only 1 ¼ lengths, despite hitting the side of the gate at the break. I have no doubt this colt has a very bright future and will win his share of big stakes. But I am still dubious about horses with only three starts unless I am convinced they are a freak, as were the only two horses to pull it off – Big Brown and Justify. And they did not face strong fields in the Derby. So we’ll see what he can do under the circumstances and go from there.
11– Tiz the Bomb (Kenny McPeek, Hit It a Bomb – Tiz the Key, by Tiznow)
I am saving my two huge longshots for last, although I’m not sure just how big a longshot Crown Pride is going to be. I said a few weeks ago following Tiz the Bomb’s impressive victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on a synthetic surface that I want to see how he trains at Churchill Downs. Well, he has shown absolutely no signs of disliking the dirt and in fact seems to relish it. In fact you can blame him for his work in company with Smile Happy going awry, as he was so keyed up early he basically sprinted clear of his workmate who was supposed to be right up there with him. Brian Hernandez was not about to strangle him and just let him roll while Corey Lanerie, finding himself some four or five lengths behind, just let his horse work on his own, paying no attention to Tiz the Bomb, who finished three lengths in front. But this was not a horse running off. It was more a horse with controlled energy who just was too fast for his stablemate in what was supposed to be a maintenance work. Both horses actually turned in the same time of :48 for the half; they just did it in different ways. McPeek has always been extremely high on this colt and if you can throw out his dismal effort in the Holy Bull Stakes I believe you’re looking at a horse firing on all cylinders now and capable of upsetting this race at a big price.
12– Crown Pride (Reach the Crown – Emmy’s Pride, by King Kamehameha)
And now we come to the most intriguing horse in the race and the one I feel you have to place a win bet on just so he doesn’t jump up and bite you in your wallet as so many of his compatriots have done in major races all over the world. The Japanese, with their unique training methods, have arrived and we better accept them. As for Crown Pride, I love what I’m seeing every morning, especially the way they have him accelerating on the turn after crossing the wire. He’s been doing his calisthenics on the chute every day and has been calm during parts of his gallops and aggressive during others. He wants to go and I love his energy level, which is high, but well in control. When they really let him open up in a work he went his half in an eye-catching :46 2/5, but was never being urged. He is coming off a very impressive victory in the UAE Derby going 1 3/16 miles and was relentless in the stretch going after the loose on the lead Summer is Tomorrow in what was a two-horse race down the stretch. I will be betting him to win, but wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a lot more money than you think. He has caught the eye of a lot of people.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Yes, there is still a door on which to knock. But at this late date I’m not sure anyone will let you in. I love finding longshots to play in the Derby, but after the top 12 I cannot separate the rest, and while anyone can find their way into the exotics I’m just not seeing any of the others as win candidates.
Sure, ZOZOS is very talented horse who can carry his speed a long way, especially for a son of Munnings, but again we have a horse with only three starts, and I feel his best races are down the road. BARBER ROAD would be the most likely deep-closing longshot to hit the board, but he still needs to figure out where the winner’s circle is one of these days. He is persistent and keeps knocking on the door every race. One of these he’s going to squeeze his way in, but I would think it will be against lesser company in a smaller field. But for now I wouldn’t discourage anyone who wants to include him in their exotics. He is as honest as they come.
PIONEER OF MEDINA is another who is going to win his share of big races and he’s been running well against top company, mainly Zandon, Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zozos. But at this stage of his career he looks to be more of a one-paced grinder who just keeps coming. He just needs to either try to wire his field or find a stronger closing punch. He will give them a run for their money and could hang around for piece of it.
If we’re in a forgiving mood and wish to overlook CLASSIC CAUSEWAY’S implosion in the Florida Derby then you can say he belongs in the race. But how he’s going to win is another matter. He will be on or right off the pace, but how far he can cay his speed is the main question. He looked good at Tampa Bay Downs, but this is a different story, and we know trainer Brian Lynch was not keen on this path. But the owners deserve a shot so here he is.
TAWNY PORT is a horse on the rise, but not quite there yet, finding his way into the Derby at the last minute with a victory in the Lexington Stakes. Coming back in three weeks doesn’t bother me in the slightest. Rebel Stakes winner UN OJO will have his following and he does have a good closing kick, but all his numbers say he is just too slow. SUMMER IS TOMORROW looked like a sure winner in the UAE Derby before Crown Pride corralled him in the final furlong and he should be a pace presence for quite a long way. Remember, all his previous starts had come in sprints so he should be stronger with that race under him.
Kerry Thomas likes the faves Epicenter, Zandon, Tabai. Did anyone need to pay $25 for that? lol
Epicenter’s Saturday work was inside a rival who was not giving him an inch of room….BODES WELL for a horse that drew the 3-slot!
Brad Free said that Messier “makes a lot of noise” during his works, alluding to possible breathing problems. Maybe something, maybe nothing.
Good to hear your voice today on ATR, It’s a good voice!
Steve has a face for radio!!
The more I look at Cyberknife the more I also see Zozos, BOTH are horses moving up in efforts, both are training very well and both have not yet run their best race, or so I hope….
If Zozos manages to get a descent trip I feel he’s extremely dangerous. Not so keen on Cyberknife, not his ability, more the temperament.
Christophe Lemaire was interviewed after his first ride on Crown Pride on Wednesday.
His comments were that he could feel what excellent condition the horse is in, he is working very well, very comfortable, changing leads at the right time, good breath and overall very happy with his condition and attitude.
Lemaire also said he thought this was going to be a very exciting Derby.
Having watched all of Crown Pride’s works, I totally agree with Mr. Lemaire. I do think that Crown Pride will be a factor in the race and he certainly has brought excitement to the Derby.
What at first seemed like a rather lack luster Derby field in January, has transformed into one that is going to be exciting to watch in my opinion.
I think he’s an exciting element as well. What’s encouraging is how well Master Fencer ran in a previous derby. I think there will definitely be money on him.
Latest weather forecast for Louisville is for a very high percentage chance of thunderstorms from 9:00AM to 4:00PM on Friday afternoon and a 60% chance of thunderstorms from 4:00 PM to 6:00PM on Friday. The way that this front is now moving across the South does look like that there is lower chance of severe thunderstorms over western Kentucky on Friday than previously predicted This system is the same one that has created a lot of damage in Texas and Arkansas. The forecast for Saturday does call for the rain showers to stop around 7:AM on Saturday morning which is good news for the Derby.
This change does not bode well for where I live and Friday will be a First Alert Day: “as our next storm system rolls into the region, a potent cold front will begin to push a line of thunderstorms into the western mountains (NC) around lunchtime, which will work east and into the Upstate (SC and NE Georgia) through about 4:00 PM. Torrential rains with the storms may lead to some localized flooding, and some of the storms could also be severe. Damaging winds and large hail are our primary concerns, but conditions may favor isolated tornadoes as well.”
We already have a “potential for severe storms, be prepared” warning for Friday.
This weather activity is very normal for us who live in the mid and eastern southern region for this time of the year.
Good luck, Lynda, but I guess you’re used to the extremes, large hail would worry me.
If you buy enough Wonka bars, you might find a golden ticket. I’ve been buying a lot of bars, from Epicenter, to Tiz the Bomb, to Messier, to Simplification.
But not until I unwrapped White Abarrio, did I see gold.
What if I said you could get 12-1? on a horse that…
* Ran a “1” Thoro-Graph, 2nd fastest to Taiba (credit to Steve for that info)
* Ran the best prep race. Happy to explain how if you ask.
* Had the best workout of his life a few days back, according to drf clocker who said he’s been watching him for months.
These three points carry heavy weight in my opinion, tipping the scale in his favor more than any other horse.
I’m a roulette player at the casino. And I’ll be surrounding #15 in the derby with a load of chips. Cheers to your horses running well also. As I like to say, let’s make some money!
Unfortunately, Andy Beyer has also selected White Abarrio to win, often that negativity is too much for a Derby hopeful to carry.
Oh no! Say it ain’t so! 🙁 🙁
Straight from the horse’s mouth. Hee-haw!!
He picked Medina Spirit, right? So he’s hot. 😉
That’s what he said, if White Albarrio wins that would be 2 win choices in 20 years. Lol.
Beyer also picked War Emblem, 20-1 he’s way ahead this century!
Lol. So how many did he pick last century, 1. Ha ha
There was a time when I thought that would be the loss of death. Just don’t tell me Matt Bernier picked him lol. I do think his 97>96 pattern is a positive one. It’s something I do consider.
I liked White Abarrio, too, as a moderate longshot….until Davids’ bad news. So which of WA’s preps did you think was the best prep race?
His Florida Derby Eddie. It’s easy to look at the closing fractions of that race and dismiss him. But the quarter poles at Gulfstream are far into the turns, unlike some tracks like Fairgrounds. So WA was running really fast fractions while going 5/4 wide on the first turn and 3/4 wide on the second turn. That’s more impressive than running say 24 seconds in a straight line to the quarter poles. He made up ground on the leaders through the second and third calls when they went a blazing 23.6 followed by 23.4. And he still made up ground during the 25.9 quarter coming home. (Writing from memory so apology if 25.9 is off) So it’s totally understandable for him to come home in 14.1 after going so wide and so fast the entire race basically. I think it was a huge effort masked by slow closing fractions.
OK, Lil. That’s what I figured. You may not recall, or didn’t see, my post about putting a stopwatch to WA’s final furlong in the FL Derby. I timed it several ticks faster than the official time. Still not very quick, but at least acceptable. He’s a solid moderately priced longshot. He may be my prime bet.
Cool, good luck Eddie. Rooting for as many people from this community to cash tickets as possible.
A fun fact for this Derby is that four Sires got two sons qualified: Not This Time (Epicenter, Simplification), Gun Runner (Taiba, Cyberknife), Pioneerof the Nile (Pioneer of Medina, Tawny Port) and Race Day (White Abarrio, Barber Road).
I believe this is a record as the previous mark (this Century) was about three stallions with two or more offspring in a single Derby.
In the 2002 Derby those three distinguished stallions were Gone West, Our Emblem and El Prado.
In 2007 the honors of dual progeny went to Johannesburg, Distorted Humor and Smart Strike.
In the 2013 Derby three stallions had two sons each (Into Mischief, War Pass and Kitten’s Joy).
2018 was the last time when as many as three Sires had two or more sons running in the Derby. Scat Daddy had four (Justify, Flameaway, Combatant and Mendelssohn), Curlin had three (Good Magic, Vino Rosso and Solomini) and Medaglia D’Oro was represented by Enticed and Bolt D’Oro.
The 2016 Derby included three sons of Uncle Mo (Nyquist, Outwork and Mo Tom) and three sons of Tapit (Lani, Creator and Mohaymen).
This year Gun Runner has the chance to be a freshman Champion Sire with a Derby winner like Uncle Mo and Scat Daddy did in 2016 and 2018 respectively.
Great post, Nelson!
Hi
Thanks Steve for welcoming us onboard the Haskin Derby Express back in mid-January when winter had a grip on the weather and our mood. Now you have brought us into the welcoming warmth of spring (though here in Winnipeg there is still the final traces of snow on the ground.) You have been a wonderful guide and friend for all of us.
Despite praising your guidance, I have chosen to take a potentially foolish but very inspired drive this Saturday along Ethereal Road . To get into this year’s Derby that colt had to gain two needed points in the Lexington after disappointing in the Blue Grass a week prior. He then needed plenty of help as he was 23rd on the Ky Derby Point ranking. He has already twice beaten the odds just to get into the starting gate.
Among the reasons I am pulling for this colt is because I would like to see D. Wayne Lukas win another Derby, plus a win by Ethereal Road might prompt future owners and trainers to race their colts more often during their pre-Derby 3 year-old campaigns.
I hope it is a cleanly run race where all horses and jockeys return safely.
greg (in Winnipeg)
That’s very kind of you Greg. Thank you!
Ethereal Road is one of the horses who could outdo his 50 to 1 (likely) odds just because he will be running without any pressure whatsoever … the projected hot pace might benefit him greatly. Some times when one plays just for the fun of it the results are pretty startling…
Good luck with the Coach and the son of Quality Road…!
I’m looking forward to Steve Haskin’s Handicapping Column tomorrow. That will be the final piece of the puzzle. Then I can start putting some tickets together.
I thought Taiba’s work at SA was uninspiring, THAT was supposed to be IT …but he got a 3 furlong work TODAY??? Methinks they might not be going….at the least there is a big question mark with Taiba .
MatthewW, I do not think either of Taiba’s works were anything to write home about.
However, to be fair, it is my understanding that both works are typical for him but he delivers in the afternoon.
Not sure that we can make that leap in that he has only had two races.
I think Messier’s were much, much better.
The SA work he was trying to pass a maiden breaker who was being pulled back and Taiba didn’t go by—Yakteen said BEFORE the work it was going to be his lone work….yet he goes 3 fur?….Hmmmm……
Taiba is not supposed to be a flashy worker but he didn’t impress.
Congrats Steve on another successful year of Derby rankings.
Your opening prediction about Zandon and Epicenter being close in the morning line was spot-on. I likewise hope your expectations on Smile Happy’s rebounding this Saturday is also fulfilled… at 20 to 1 the son of Runhappy is one of the greatest overlays ever.
The inside information you shared here puts Smile Happy in a good light indeed. It is hard to dismiss a horse who was the second favorite in the winter book only behind champion Corniche… especially because he has been improving in form steadily since mid-February.
After fifteen fulfilling weeks of watching a Carousel of beautiful horses trying to prove themselves, many of us don’t need to even see the past performances to recognize the fastest horses in this Derby.
There is nothing much remained to be said apart from trying to infer which Derby hopefuls love Churchill Downs and how the race would unfold.
Among the few points remaining untold are the ones surrounding the past performances of the Japanese horse. After watching the Hyacinth Stakes ran at Tokyo Racecourse I concluded that Crown Pride is not undefeated due to a very bad racing luck in that Derby qualifying race. Crown Pride was noticeably blocked at the start leaving him desperately last at least 10 lengths behind the front runners. Then his race was over after being stopped again in the backstretch when he was gaining momentum. Still the son of Reach the Crown closed strongly enough to finish only 3.5 lengths behind the winner of that mile contest.
Anyway, as you said, Crown Pride has already flaunted so much class at Churchill that he will be taking a lot of betting on top of the expected Japanese money.
Marche Lorraine and Loves Only You with their wins in the Breeder’s Cup festival jump started Japan wave of international success the last five months.
Japan took the first four international races on the Saudi Cup undercard and won four out of the eight Stakes on Dubai World Cup night.
So, it is not farfetched to expect Crown Pride riding Japan’s wave of worldwide success to deliver a nice show this Saturday.
We shall see…
Nice comment Nelson.
Thanks Lynda… it is the Land of the Rising Sun rising to the challenge of the American Triple Crown…
Thank you Nelson. Best of luck with all your bets.
I can’t seem to shake from my mind the surprising performance of the last Japanese horse, Master Fencer, in the 2019 Derby. He was the only horse running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds (24 3/5) while passing 12 horses in the homestretch. He was in front of all but Maximum Security 20 meters after the finish line. He had spent only 5 days galloping at Churchill before the Derby…
I expect a better performance from Crown Pride not only because his credentials are better but also because he has had more time to acclimate (since March 30).
Just read that a horse has started in the post position #17 has never won the KD…#17 is Barber Road.
FTI….the longest drought for post positions for #1-12 is #10-over 50 years (Canonero II in 1971).
FYI….Taiba, as of present, has #12.
Excuse me….’is #12′.
Crown Pride is getting plenty of buzz from his latest workouts. I don’t like his chances at all. But, maybe I should. One factor that I use in trying to figure how horses will do running a mile and a quarter for the first time is to look at how they did at a mile and an eighth. Crown Pride is 2 for 2 at a mile and an eighth and 1 for 1 at a mile and 3/16. Nice. The knocks are that he ran his worst race and only non-winning race at a mile over a muddy track in Japan. The other knock is the field that he beat in The UAE Derby at Dubai. Pinehurst was one of the favorites in that race for goodness sakes. The clockers love this guy. Looking back at his first work at Churchill Downs on April 16th, he went 6-furlongs over a “good” track in 1:18 3/5. He either didn’t like that “off” track or he was running backwards. 1:18 3/5???
Japanese training methods are not ours. They start out slow, very slow and then ramp it up. His work today very good and some thinking too much this close to a race. The fact his jockey flew in early to ride him today another plus for me. Look at his pedigree. Sunday Silence sire and dam. You can ignore him if you want.20-1?
I wonder if he’ll be 20-1 with all the clockers raving about his works. I respect the horse and his connections. I can’t play them all though. Good luck this weekend.
Good luck to you as well. My bankroll is about nonexistent but he is worth a WPS bet for me. I like the extra dressage work he does.
TommyMC, there is more to his loss in the Hyacinth (his only loss so far by the way) than the track conditions.
“Losing all chance at the start when squeezed out, he ended up having to make his moves wide and from off the pace in a race where speed held up. The fact that Crown Pride was able to get within four lengths of the winner suggested he was a colt with serious ability, and he proved that to be correct on Dubai World Cup night.”
The work on the 16th was his first. six furlongs from the half-mile pole. The colt completed opening fractions of :14 3/5, :28 1/5, :54 and 1:06 1/5. Crown Pride steadily picked up his work around the turn and onto the backside before completing gallop out of seven furlongs in 1:32 2/5. Upon his arrival in the US from Dubai, he was in quarantine for about a week.
I hardly think his trainer was send him out with a blowout after exiting quarantine.
I should have watched the replay of that race. The comment in my Racing Form about Crown Pride’s loss says: Had no excuse. My comment about that slow work on April 16th was supposed to be a joke. It just looks weird to see a horse at the top level with a workout like that. Good luck on Friday & Saturday.
Best of luck to you too TommyMc!
Prediction #1…Secret Oath wins, for Coach….Prediction #2 ….Epicenter leaves there favored..
I like the number 5 for career starts: Medina Spirit & Mandaloun in ’21, Authentic in Sept ’20, Always Dreaming in ’17, American Pharoah in ’15, I’ll Have Another in ’12, Barbaro in ’06, and Fusaichi Pegasus in ’00.
So EddieF, that means you are picking from this group:
White Abarrio
Smile Happy
Mo Donegal
Tawny Port
Pretty salty.
LOL. I’m still working on the winnowing process. But I won’t eliminate a horse for one start on either side! Tough to go past the two faves, but White Abarrio should be a nice price.
Mattress Mac now says that he will probably be splitting his $3million in bets mostly between Epicenter and Zandon with a little on Smile Happy. He also said he would be playing The Oaks-Derby double. Mac is driving me towards Mo Donegal. Actually, my strategy will be to wait as long as possible to make my “big” Derby bet and look for the best value. I would want 4-1 or 9-2 on both Zandon & Epicenter. 8-1 or better on Mo Donegal. 15-1 or better on Smile Happy. If none of those work out, I’ll keep an eye on Tiz the Bomb at 25-1 or better. The horse that I want to bet is Smile Happy, but only at the right price. For the 2nd year in a row Mac has gotten into my head and I can’t get him out. I’m sure he’s a nice fellow, but I don’t like him “hijacking” The Kentucky Derby.
One problem with waiting as long as possible to bet The Derby is that it’s the biggest race in America with a huge betting pool and, in the past, I have experienced problems with my ADW caused by heavy traffic at the last minute.
A couple million on the race favorites will have little bearing on their win prices.
I don’t know about that, Matthew. Between the wagers of the mattress man and Bill Dawson, there’s bound to be movement on the tote board.
After Bill hits I wanna ride in his Mazzarati!
LOL
This year, I’m making a serious attempt to hit the Super Hi-5. Each ticket will cost $12.00, similar to the following:
3,10//3,10// 1,6,12// 1,6,12// 1,6,12.
I plan on using various combinations of favorites and longshots on about 36 to 40 Super Hi-5 tickets.
The expected rain could have a major impact on how the race plays out. One thing for sure, if the track does wind up “sloppy/muddy”, things could get real interesting.
Good luck with your picks Matthew W.
Thanks, Bill! Probably going with Cyberknife and Messier on my pick 3’s,4’s,5’s.
Cyberknife has been working lights out at Churchill, probably the best colt that Brad Cox has entered in the race. However, if the track comes up muddy, I’ll take a hard look at Zozos in p/p#19. If he breaks well, he could be one of the early leaders coming out of the first turn. He managed to hold his speed in the Louisiana Derby, only to be past late by Epicenter. I like his chances to at least hit the board. He’s been burning up the CD track in recent workouts, just like Cyberknife. I will toss Cox’s other entrant, Tawny Port.
As Matthew points out, there are different kinds of “off” tracks. I would love Mo Donegal on a heavy muddy surface. A sealed, sloppy track could favor Epicenter or a horse like Classic Causeway. Yes, I said Classic Causeway. He looks impossible on paper. Slow speed figures that are trending downward. A winless post position(#17). Coming off of a horrible prep race with no visible excuse. His trainer seems like he wants no part of the Derby. But, while it was only a “good” track, CC is 1 for 1 on an “off” track. I see Storm Cat and Thunder Gulch in his pedigree. 30-1 on Mike Battaglia’s Morning line and likely heading “North”. People have been jumping off of his bandwagon like they were jumping off of the Titanic. Hopefully, one of his owners will be wearing his lucky Jed Clampett hat. He’s going to need it.
I always consider an “off” track as the great equalizer. It brings slower horses closer to the more brilliant horses.
Maybe for ITM finishes, but not for 1st-place finishes. Seven off-track Derbies this century: six were won by the first or second favorite. Mine That Bird was the exception of course.
Saw the Messier “flying lead change”….handling the off track in his gallop….looks good.
Steve, I heard from a source that Tiz The Bomb does not like dirt kickback. He doesn’t seem to mind the surface as far as running on and he had great energy but have you heard any talk about his ability to handle dirt in his face. I know I love dirt in my face from time to time but I’m not the one taking money on Saturday.
Crown Pride’s third birthday today. Youngest of all of the Derby horses so may have the most room for improvement between last race and Saturday.
It is so hard to pick. I believe many of these horses will go on to have wonderful racing careers! I like so many of them for different reasons. I always look to your input to help me narrow down my picks though.
Wow! Crown Pride worked out today and looked amazing. He is a beauty and looks dead fit. 46 3 and he was fluid, relaxed, no urging. Started out slow and turned on the afterburners to get 22 + in last two F’s. He looks good folks.
He not only looked great it was his jockey onboard. That makes me feel even better about his shot on Saturday.
Just watched. Yes, moving well over the track and strong. Like the way he hugged that curve and how he works those ears.
Also watched Taiba’s gallop this morning. See he had the blinkers on again. Supposedly he is not a “morning guy” but has it together in the afternoon when it counts.
I just saw the end if that work….did he get whipped? Saw rider waving it some….
Matthew W what you probably saw was the crop bouncing up and down a little in Christopher’s left hand. I watched the full video twice and just watched it again looking for the crop.
CP as usual wanted to do more but he responded quickly to slowing down…Christopher had him well in hand.
This was Christopher’s first time riding him.
I thought Christopher rode him in the UAE derby. It would seem from the morning shows they have been turning him loose on the clubhouse turns just for that reason.
Damian Lane was the jockey for the UAE Derby.
I’ve always liked White Abarrio, but in the last few days he’s gained a lot in my eyes. The Tales from the Crib piece helped, revealing he’s a dominant horse, not one to hesitate when passing another, but also his conformation looks good. He’s got that efficient stride. Distance is the big question, but he could be improving, that’s a valid chance to take in picking him to win. His post 15 is great, many to his left will be cutting back. He could get jostled with Classic Causeway likely to cut in front from the right and maybe Zozos too, the jockey will know these and more things to look for. I think he’s the most self contained and self reliant of them all, he’s made his own way. Grey horses are good lately, witness Knicks Go. He may not be as fast as Messier and Epicenter, but may last them out with smart racing, not up quite as close as thise two who may duel. I don’t think there are any of his quality after those two.
I like the way you think Disco.
Thanks for all the great articles these last few months, Steve. Trying to find the Kentucky Derby winner is about as easy as putting together a thousand piece puzzle. My longshot pick is Tiz the Bomb, but I also believe Smile Happy is a bit overlooked here. How about a Ken McPeek exacta?
Thank you very much Dutch. I’m definitely playing both horses.
Well Steve and all, here we are within hours of the Kentucky Derby.
Seems like just yesterday that we were all pouring over Week One back in January.
Time certainly does fly when we are having fun.
Will be brief and to the point (now that is very unusual for me!)
After watching works and the post draw, reading pedigrees, back ground stories and the bios of the jockeys and looking at photos of the colts; analyzing their race records and connections and of course, faithfully reading your Derby column each week as I have been doing for 13 years this year and many of the comments, this is where I am:
Zandon, Epicenter, White Abarrio, Tiz The Bomb, Messier and Crown Pride. I am especially enamored of Zandon and Crown Pride. The two long shits that I am most fascinated by are Happy Jack and Pioneer of Medina.
Heartfelt gratitude to you Steve for all your diligence, hard work, devotion and knowledge that you pass along to us every year. Every year I manage to learn something new about this sport that I have been following for many decades since I was a child.
Best of luck, safe races to all of the horses and their jockeys. And as always best of luck to you and everyone who follows you with their bets.
Lots of talented colts in this field and even if they do not win or place on Saturday, I am pretty sure we will see some of them again soon!
I am so sorry, I typed sh*ts when I meant shots.
I apologize, should have proofed before I posted!!!
Sh*t happens. 😉
LOL, thanks EddieF.
Lynda, please forgive my puerile sense of humor but I giggled nonstop for ages after reading…Anyway, I agree Crown Pride could be a real danger going by his morning works.
I was a high school teacher and was giving a math. test that day to 10th geom. class. I had placed the tests on every
other chair. They were not paying attention so I sit where I placed the tests. No reaction so I yelled sh*T
there is paper. I got there attention.
Lol. I can sympathize with the students Math tests were not high points of the semester.
john schroer, LOL.
Davids, must admit I giggled too when I saw how I spelled “shots”.
Thanks so much Lynda and for all your wonderful and informative posts
I’m with you, Lynda. Zandon and Crown Pride have become my two faves.
Deep mud can help closers, rolled down “wet fast” helps speed! If track is dry and has cushion (harrowed) and THEN it rains DURING the races, WATCH how they roll down the cushion, in the rain, they start INSIDE, and the inside can get faster, just because it got rolled down FIRST, probably won’t happen this weekend, as Friday now calls for 90%rain..
How vulnerable are the favorites Zandon and Epicenter? Extremely. Imo.
I’m predicting monster payouts this derby.
Hi, Lil E Tee. What is your definition of “extremely vulnerable”?
I’d say that 19 are “extremely vulnerable.” In fact, I can swear by that statement. Lol.
Hi Eddie,
Epicenter’s post position really bothers me. And I just think the Blue Grass was a super weak race, where Zandon had it as easy as can be.
Hello again, Lil. I can’t agree in any sense on your two points. All runners are vulnerable to varying degrees. The odds will indicate which runners are “extremely” vulnerable. But the historical record doesn’t support your concern about Epicenter breaking from Post 3. The vast majority of Post 3 horses in the past 20+ years were longshots. You’d be hard-pressed to find previous Derby horses from Post 3 with similar circumstances to Epicenter, who
1) will be the first or second choice.
2) has won on the lead, vying for the lead, and stalking the early leaders.
3) has two closers to his inside.
4) has always broken well from the gate.
Of course, Epi needs to break cleanly from the gate. Which horse doesn’t? You may say that a closer doesn’t need to break well. But how have closers fared since Orb, with or without a clean start?
As for the quality of the Blue Grass Stakes, it was as good as any of the other final preps.
All good Eddie. Just my opinion. I’m wrong more often than I am right. 🙂 Good luck with your bets.
I just can’t stop digging/looking, trying to find the answer. So I guess I’m not done yet. Probably won’t be until midnight the day before. This sounds really familiar lol.
An annual case of “Analysis Paralysis”
Best kind of paralysis? Lol
Thank you Steve for this post. It is a great way to bring the curtain down on a befuddling Derby picture. I have enjoyed these 4 months of insightful writing. I love how you have the ability to simplify things. My final assessment is just a personal one. I like Smile Happy & Zozos to win but I will put them in box with Simplification, White Abarrio & Taiba.
Smile Happy at a morning line of 20-1 is ridiculous. He could easily win this race by 4 lengths. Battaglia seems to have lost his mind. Yes Epicenter & Zandon are the live horses but I am not sold on a Louisiana Derby winner. I feel Zandon has much more of a chance to win then Epicenter. I will use him in a couple of my bets.
Lastly, a lot has been written & said about how lightly raced most of these horses are. Justify set that parameter for owners so we shouldn’t be surprised. Truth is , it doesn’t matter because most of these horses are very lightly raced, so its an even playing field.
On a different note Steve who do you like in the Oaks?
I just listened to Jerry Brown’s Thoro-graph Derby seminar from 2021. “Less is More” regarding their opinions regarding horses with just 2 preps as 3yo’s before the Derby. 2 preps have produced more new tops. It’s about the same with 3 preps.
Deacon, I agree that SH’s ML odds are too high. I expect him to be around 14-1. As for the La Derby, the 9.5f distance makes it new. Of course, Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie did quite well last year in the Ky Derby. Then there’s the record of Blue Grass runners in the Ky Derby. It’s not good. This century, only Street Sense came out of it to win the Derby, but the BG was on an all-weather track. So about Smile Happy and Zandon….
Thanks very much Deacon and best of luck with your bets.
Steve, I happened to open a press release in my business junk filter that surprised me. Apparently a sports writer named Jack Gliden has just come out with a book about Spectacular Bid, called “The Fast Ride: Spectacular Bid and the Undoing of a Sure Thing.”
Release calls it “an eye-opening saga of corruption, abuse and crime.” Apparently it’s based on last-gasp interviews with jockey Ronnie Franklin. Just what racing needs during Derby week!
Have you heard of it? I can send you the release or you can look it up the book on Amazon.
Please do send it. I never heard of this book.
Just sent the release to your AOL account from my email address registered here. Hope it’s still active!
The review in the Wall Street Journal gives me more than enough reason to read the book.
I read the sample pages on Amazon, intriguing to say the least.
Thanks for informing us about this book. After reading the description on Amazon and the review in the WSJ, I think it will be a fascinating read. I’d sure like to get Steve’s take on it if he reads it.
After the Bluegrass I did not hear Derby favorite about Zandon…his star has risen because of works and gallops not because of his 2 for 4 record….he was beaten by Epicenter and then Epicenter won again, Zandon has been made favorite by hype—he won Blyegrass coming from last, over a track that favored that style…I got him for five bucks at over 30-1, then a tenner at 18-1 right before his Bluegrass, but at 3-1 I wouldn’t touch him, because for 3-1 in a contentious field I need Chrome, or Pharoah, or Tiz the Law, 3-1 on a horse that has never won two in a row not for ke..
I believe that Zandon is in that group that takes turns beating each other or finishing in front of each race after race….Zandon just beat Smile Happy, before that both Smile Happy and Epicenter finished ahead of him and before that Mo Donegal finished ahead of him with Epicenter being the most consistent.
However, now of these horses just “awe” you at this point.
Hey Steve, have a question.
Someone down in the comments below mentioned the “Tomlinson Ratings”.
I had never heard of the rating until late Monday after the pp draw (saw them on racing group I follow). Evidently it is a widely used tool by handicappers.
Following is the Tomlinson for the final field. I think 480 is the upper limit.
Can you tell me how accurate these ratings have been historically?
I just now glanced at the forecast for Friday and Saturday and it is looking like the Oaks might be a wash out with thunderstorms likely and 90% chance of rain and thunderstorms and rain overnight (70%) with a 66% chance of rain early then decreased rain chances in the afternoon on Saturday.
Thanks!
PP Horse Tomlinson
1 Mo Donegal (KY) 414
2 Happy Jack (KY) 440
3 Epicenter (KY) 445
4 Summer Is Tomorrow (KY) 364
5 Smile Happy (KY) 378
6 Messier (ON) 417
7 Crown Pride (JPN) 280
8 Charge It (KY) 432
9 Tiz the Bomb (KY) 345
10 Zandon (KY) 331
11 Pioneer of Medina (KY) 365
12 Taiba (KY) 480
13 Simplification (FL) 445
14 Barber Road (KY) 363
15 White Abarrio (KY) 372
16 Cyberknife (KY) 400
17 Classic Causeway (KY) 357
18 Tawny Port (KY) 377
19 Zozos (KY) 436
20 Ethereal Road (KY) 401
Lynda, just search for “How to use DRF – Tomlinson Ratings” and a full explanation will come up.
Thanks Davids.
I did access the site and it gave me a better understanding of what the form is and how the ratings are arrived at.
Maximum Security had a 316, Justify 386, Always Dreaming 385, Orb 405, Super Saver 412, Mine That Bird 341, Smarty Jones 313. All but one race (Always Dreaming on wet fast) were on a sloppy track.
EddieF, I did reply to you but comment is being held for moderation.
They’ll let you say “sh*t” once, but not twice! LOL
LOL. You ae just too funny.
If you can figure out what part of your reply may have put the whole post in moderation hell, please post the revised comment. I’m eager to read it!
I read Steve’s pedigree analysis in Week 10 with great interest and good attention (or so I thought), but just re-read it before posting my own deep dive into the female families of several of the favorites. No surprise — Steve wrote up all the good stuff, so I’ll focus on stuff of interest on the horses he didn’t cover that week.
What’s interesting is that the top horses in this year’s Derby uniformly come from great female families. The same can’t be said of some of the outsiders although I haven’t researched all of them. Also, since many recent Derby winners have been first or early foals of their mothers, I’ll note the age of all the moms of the Derby entries I cover.
EPICENTER’S 8th dam is major British stakes producer NEARLY, ancestress of graded SWs BAMBOOZLE, NORTHERN GEM, NANTICIOUS, ROYAL ROCK, and MYSTERIOUS MOLL. Epi’s fourth dam, Hobe Sound, is the mother of Grade 1 Japanese SW TAIKI HERAKLES, and his dam, SILENT CANDY (2007) is a stakes winner on the turf.
As Steve wrote, ZANDON’s 9th dam is BOUDOIR II. She’s the ancestress of Kelso sire YOUR HOST, T.V. COMMERCIAL, GALLATIA, and GAY HOSTESS. Gay Hostess is the dam of Derby/Preakness winner MAJESTIC PRINCE, second dam of French Derby winner and champion CARACOLERO, and third dam of Epsom Derby winner SECRETO. Boudoir is also the second dam of FLOWER BOWL, who gave us champion BOWL OF FLOWERS, GRAUSTARK, and HIS MAJESTY, and is third dam of champion GALLANT BLOOM (one of the most amazing mares of the 1960s, a decade full of them.) ZANDON’s second dam Incarnate Memories produced graded SW CAIRO MEMORIES and SW CARIBA. He’s the second foal from Memories Prevail, a 2014 mare.
SIMPLIFICATION Jumping into the wayback machine, Simplification descends from Polly Agnes second dam of English TCW ORMONDE and third dam of the legendary double Guineas/Oaks/St. Leger winner SCEPTRE. Closer in — and as Steve mentioned — Simplification’s second dam, stakes-placed Ballado’s Halo, is a full sister to two-time champion ASHADO He is the first foal and SW from his stakes-placed dam Simply Confection.
MO DONEGAL descends from Canadian SW ORCHESTRA, a major source of stakes winning and champion Canadian thoroughbreds, including: DANCE IN TIME, GIBOULEE, LAST ANSWER, NORTHERN SKY, ESENI, ALEZZANDRO, MEADOW MONSTER, UNCAPTURED, MRS. BARBARA and CCA Oaks winner CURALINA. Mo’s stakes winning second dame is G1 winner ISLAND SAND. He’s the second foal and only stakes performer out of 2012 mare Callingmissbrown.
CROWN PRIDE descends from FORGET, one of my favorite broodmares. She is the dam of SIX SW, including BORROW, who defeated Derby winners Regret , Old Rosebud, and Omar Khayyam in the Brooklyn H’cap when he was 9. The line has also produced Derby/Belmont and 3YO champion TWENTY GRAND and a slew of graded SW on the grass, including turf champ RUN THE GAUNTLET. Closer to home: Crown Pride’s 2nd dam is a half to Japanese 2YO champion DIRAQOUEE who produced two (ungraded) Japanese SW. Crown Pride is the first foal and only SW out of the 2012 mare, Emmy’s Pride.
As Steve noted earlier this season, SMILE HAPPY’S 5th dam is Bravura, whose mom Teretania is a half to major sire ALIBHAI and SIX major stakes winners, including Oaks winner THERESINA. No wonder Bravura herself is the ancestress of a slew of G1 winners, including HAIL THE PIRATES, CANDALITA, TOUSSAUD, EMPIRE MAKER, CHESTER HOUSE, HONEST LADY, FIRST DEFENSE, and CHISELLING. Smile Happy’s 4th dam Pumpkin Patch is the ancestress of G3 SW BELLE OF COZZENE, Derby/Preakness winner FUNNY CIDE, and G2 winner RULE. Mom Pleasant Smile is on the older side, foaled in 2006. Her only other stakes performer is Wilko Rum, 3rd in a G2 race in Puerto Rico.
WHITE ABARRIO descends from major foundation mare MAID OF MASHAM, an English stakes winner in the 1840s and most famously ancestress of FAIR PLAY, the sire of Man o’ War. Much further down the pike is White Abarrio’s 4th dam, G3 SW FANEUIL LASS, ancestress of major SWs in Japan, Brazil, and the U.S., including SAM WHO, ABIRU BUN GOD, GAILY CONDOR, JUNO (BRZ1), LOVE ‘N’ HAPPINESS (BRZ1). Abarrio’s seccond dam, Grand Breeze, produced UAE G3 winner COOL COWBOY and is second dam of G2 SW MUTASAABEQ. White Abarrio is the first foal and only SW of his 2015 dam, Catching Diamonds.
MESSIER descends from a very old American and later Canadian family that includes the dam of LEXINGTON, Alice Carneal, and 1886 Preakness winner THE BARD. Closer to home, his 8th dam, Swooning, produced Hall of Fame G1 winner SWOON’S SON. Third dam CATCH THE RING won the Canadian Oaks and was champion at 3, and his mother, CHECKERED PAST, is a Canadian SW.
TAIBA comes from a female line of major winners in Argentina, Uruguay, and . . . Ohio! His mother, NEEDMORE FLATTERY (2011) was an Ohio champion, running almost exclusively in races restricted to Ohio-breds. His fifth dam, Etherea, was stakes placed in Puerto Rico. I’ve never seen that in the profile of a past Kentucky Derby winner, so this could be another first for the two-time runner.
TIZ THE BOMB’S 5th dam is G1 SW GAY MISSILE, dam of Reine de Course mare LASSIE DEAR (DEERHOUND, WEEKEND SURPRISE, WOLFHOUND and 2nd dam of A.P. INDY and SUMMER SQUALL) so we’re talking major bloodlines here and several doses of Secretariat blood as well. GALLANTA, his 4th dam, foaled European 2YO champion GAY GALLANTA. He’s the third foal and only stakes horse under his 2011 dam Tiz the Key.
Good reading and lots of great information. The mares are often left out of the equation of what makes a champion.
Yet they are at least as important as the sire. The female family gives a pedigree foundation, in my opinion. Thanks, Lynda!
With respect to a horse’s pedigree, I look for speed on top and stamina on the bottom.
Surprisingly genetic research on the “speed gene” finds that a genetic variant associated with speed likely originated with a single mare in the mid-17th century.
Lynda, do you know the name of the mare? Or is she the mitochondrial Eve of speed?
Something else I noticed about Crown Pride’s pedigree (after Steve mentioned more details below) is that his dam descends in tail male from Polynesian, the sire of Native Dancer. Polynesian’s third dam, American champion mare Black Maria, had only a single foal and died young. Had she not had Black Polly, we would not have seen Native Dancer, Raise a Native, Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, A.P. Indy, and a bunch of other dominant sires. Undoubtedly other horses would emerged to dominate modern pedigrees, but they would look very different without Polynesian.
Must stop. Boss wants me to plan issues for all of 2023.
So true Ms Blacktype, the sire is hopefully adding ‘something’ to the family, it’s foundation. Excellent read.
Thank you, Davids. That’s a real compliment coming from you because you REALLY understand pedigrees.
Thanks Ms Blacktype that’s very kind. Following the breeding/sales side of racing provides you with an extra pleasure in racing. It’s unfortunate that sceptre doesn’t post here anymore he is extremely knowledgeable and has been so generous over the years.
Ms Blacktype, just read a great piece from Michele McDonald about Crown Pride.
And if Steve does not mind, I am going to share part of her article:
“This year, we have had the chance to see the patient, classic horsemanship involved with the schooling of Japan’s G2 UAE Derby winner Crown Pride. This robust specimen of a colt, who has frequently shown he can be a tough ride while galloping, often spends a major part of his mornings cantering and jogging near the starting gate, executing the turns and rhythms with the focus and precision of a dressage champion.
The Japanese typically train their horses with this kind of patient, repetitive approach prior to strong gallops followed by long walks to cool out. It goes without saying that this method, as judged by all their international triumphs in recent years, can work exceedingly well.
“Crown Pride is a most intriguing Derby contender as he won the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 miles. As a son of Japanese G2 turf winner Reach the Crown, he may seem like he has an obscure pedigree. But look closer. He is 3×4 to America’s 1989 Horse of the Year Sunday Silence, and his pedigree also features Triple Crown winners Seattle Slew and Secretariat, as well as filly Triple Tiara winner Chris Evert. Additionally, he has 2 lines of Mr. Prospector, the former Claiborne Farm king who reigned as one of world’s most influential sires.”
A lot of folks are on his bandwagon this year. I keep meaning to watching some of the works, but WORK gets in the way, LOL. I haven’t even had a chance to look at the field for the Oaks yet.
Great analysis. Thanks very much.
I am flattered!
Wow, Ms. B! You have me looking up those names. I may not get any sleep tonight. Great job!
That’s what I stay up late at night doing — indexing pedigrees! I find it calming.
Except of course, when coming across horses who died on the track. That happens much too frequently.
I find that sleeping is calming, but that’s just me. 😉
Ms. Blacktype you probably know these websites: americanclassicpedigrees.com and bloodlines.net but if not you may find them worthwhile. Enjoy.
I’m about 3/4s of the way through the 27 races on Oaks/Derby days and I have to make a comment. I think that this year’s edition of The Old Forrester Turf Classic is probably the weakest in my memory. Especially, for a $1million purse. It’s a crucial race in multi-race wagers. I’ve been chasing Santin for a couple of races and feel obligated to bet him on Saturday. He adds blinkers and leading rider Tyler Gaffalione rides him back 3rd race off of a layoff. No sure thing, that’s for sure. I’ll use the Miler, Ivar, from the rail on multi-race wagers. I’m finished underestimating trainer Paulo Lobo(how about a Lobo-Bobo Double?). Mira Mission and Adhamo seem OK on soft turf. Adhamo is interesting making his second start in this country. He’s won multiple times on soft turf and Flavien Prat lands there(Prat seems to be Chad Brown’s main man now). Adhamo was able to finish within 4 3/4 lengths of European Stud-muffins St. Mark’s Basilica and Sealiway in France. Adhamo brings a nice series of works into the race. Still, I have to wonder if the 1 1/8 miles is a tad too short for him at this point in his career. Not only that, he only finished a head in front of Halo Again at Fairgrounds. I better stick with Santin. Back to work.
I think it’s a good turf field, no top turf horses but competitive. There’s a shortage of top US male turf horses right now, that’s why the UK horses won all the BC turf races.
Does anyone know whether CD will give the common better a 10 cent super or will it be $1…Thanks
I thought that I read somewhere that the Superfecta on The Derby will be $1 this year. But, in all the excitement I could be wrong.
I’ve been holding off on making my Derby pick known because I am too superstitious to speak out before Derby week. Even then, I’ve been foiled by bruises and quarter cracks before. I like Cyberknife. I watched his performance in the Arkansas Derby and (to me, anyway) he seemed to get stronger as the race finished. My other longer-shot Derby pick who won after racing in the Arkansas Derby was Grindstone. He had that same look near the end of his LA Derby and his close second in the AK Derby. Call it a hunch bet, but it’s just a feeling I got watching him run that he has more to show us and the Derby distance might really be where he shines.
Trainer Brad Cox always seems to have his horses ready to run in the biggest races. Don’t forget that he had 2 of the top 4 finishers in last year’s race(Churchill might say 2 of the top 3). I remember Brad Cox saying early on this year’s Derby Trail that Cyberknife was his only Derby horse this year. Then he came up with 2 more runners.
Question: Can dreams come true?
About a week ago, I had a dream about the Kentucky Derby. Like most dreams, it was hard to decipher, but one thing in the dream that was crystal clear, the horse in post position #1, won the Derby, and the horse that was in P/P #3 came in 2nd.
During the post position draw, when Mo Donegal drew P/P #1, I had an immediate flash back to that dream. Most trainers refer to P/P #1 as “dreadful”, but with Mo Donegal’s ability to make a big close from far back, it should not effect his running style. With Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, he could work out a ground saving trip along the rail, and make a late run, to pass tiring horses, and hit the wire first. The horse that finished 2nd in my dream, (Epicenter) should be just off the pace setters, finishing 2nd would come as no surprise.
With that said, and just for the hell of it, I’ll key Mo Donegal on top of Epicenter, in a straight exacta wager, just to see if dreams can come true. 🙂
Edit to above
My straight exacta wager (1/3) will cost $40.00
Yes, Bill, it is possible to dream a Derby winner. Maybe not probable but possible. I know because I did it in 1963. I was a teenager and not much of a racing fan at that time, but I knew the names of some of the jockeys and I knew the two favorites were Never Bend and Candy Spots. One night in April I had a vivid dream in which I was watching the stretch run of the Derby from a point high in or above the stands at about the eighth pole. A horse that Braulio Baeza was riding–his name was never mentioned–won between horses with the two favorites second on the rail and third on the outside. I didn’t even know if Baeza had a mount in the Derby, but I learned before the race that he was riding a colt I had never heard of named Chateaugay. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw the race unfold just the way I had dreamed it. (The only difference was that I had Never Bend and Candy Spots reversed.) I became an enthusiastic racing fan that day as well as a fan of both Chateaugay and Baeza, and that Derby became my all-time favorite race. After almost 60 years, it still gives me chills to watch it.
I hope your dream fares as well as mine, partly because I too want Mo Donegal to win. And as for the Number One post, Chateaugay had that, too, and it didn’t bother him.
Hi Jiffy
Thank you for sharing your dream, that’s an amazing story. How ironic would it be if Mo Donegal won this year’s Derby, from P/P 1 just as Chateaugay did in 1963. You’ve given me hope that dreams can come true.
If you plan on placing a wager in this year’s Derby, you might consider a straight exacta wager with Mo Donegal on top of Epicenter.
It might be worth a $10.00 or $20.00 investment.
Good luck, and dream on.
Dear Steve, as is every year, it’s been a pleasure to go through the Derby Rankings with you. At age 59, I am of course working a lot in my career with very little down time so the escape into the Derby Trail becomes one of those activities that adds to my quality of life. The escape and romance of the sport is never written more brilliantly than by you. I am so grateful to you for what you do, and, it comes down to this week where I wait in eager anticipation of Saturday’s Run for the Roses! I have NO IDEA what I’m going to do, yet, as far as wagering but I think Messier is sitting on a big one and Smile Happy might, as well. I think with the horses that can be up near the lead, Mo Donegal may up against it. I can see Taiba getting good position and sitting on cruise to 3/8ths and then Mike Smith letting out a notch to the 1/4 and then turn him loose. Who could get to the wire first if he and Zandon are eye to eye? I’m not going to overlook Tiz the Bomb, Charge It or Crown Pride. So what am I going to do? NO CLUE!!! Thank you, as always, you are a national treasure!
That is very kind of you Tex. Thank you! Good luck
Steve, This is from my 1980 Green Sheet. My Horse has a Chance If he stays sound throughout the race and If he’s not interfered with and If the race goes as figured and If the track to his liking and If he doesn’t get to much outside and If his equipment doesn’t break and If he doesn’t get boxed in and If he doesn’t cast a shoe and If he doesn’t get disqualified and If the man upstairs is with us all way then I’d say we have a Chance ! I think this a good perspective on what has become the Greatest Race. So remember everybody “We All Have a Chance” Good Luck and “HAPPY DERBY”
Same to you Derek
Just finished watching the morning works and sealed sloppy track. They wouldn’t say but pretty sure it was Mike riding Taiba this morning. First time seeing Smile Happy not lathered up as well. Most of them just slow gallops.
Horse lacking in experience……bad idea!
They spent a lot of money on him. Looked like it was Mike riding and Yakteen was waiting for them on a pony. Horse probably has never seen mud before. Post 12 ok but it best be a fast track and Mike takes him straight up front. Very expensive learning curve for sure.
He’s from ‘barn’ of churn and burn.
It was not Mike riding yesterday, the regular exercise rider. They added the interview from yesterday and added blinkers to the work this morning.
Most of these horses are lacking in experience. This is what makes the race hard to handicap.
True sadly
Here’s something strange that is Derby related. I don’t know if anybody looks at the Tomlinson Ratings in the Racing Form. The only one that I have confidence in is the turf ratings. Anyway, one of the “buzz” horses, Crown Pride, has the lowest rating in the race for a mile and a quarter on dirt(217). But, here’s the strange thing. Who has the second lowest rating in the race for the distance? None other than race favorite Zandon(256). I didn’t count Rattle N Roll(250) on the Also-eligible list. I wouldn’t let that stop me from betting on Zandon. I see horses out-run those ratings all the time. Besides, it’s Chad Brown and he always runs his horses in the right places. I’ll use Zandon for sure, but I think I’ll bet Win & Place on one of the 20-1 shots as my main Derby Bet. Smile Happy or Tiz the Bomb. Maybe even Mo Donegal at 10-1 from the #1 hole if the track comes up sloppy or muddy. “Mo” could even drift up in odds with that dreaded #1 post position.
Friday at Churchill is another big day and as usual Happy Saver is entered. The trouble is that he usually scratches. Good horse, but Todd Pletcher has had a heck of a time getting him to the races. Happy Saver won his first 5 races and has now lost his last 3 races. Remember that he was scratched from The Breeders Cup Classic on the morning of the race. He was entered in the Dubai World Cup and was scratched again. Never even made the trip. I think he’s had problems with cracks on his hoofs. He’s a 5-year old that has only raced 8 times. A real shame. The works are good and steady, but he runs into another one of Bill Mott’s buzzsaws, Olympiad. Like Speaker’s Corner, Olympiad is on a real roll. He’s won 3 in a row pretty easily and Junior Alvarado rides him perfectly. I also think that a mile and a sixteenth might be a little short for Happy Saver. He’s won at 7-furlongs and at a mile, but I see him as more of a 1 1/8 mile or 1 1/4 mile horse. We’ll see. Mud or slop could be the great equalizer.
Hi Steve, question I’m hoping you can answer….
In week 10 when you covered pedigrees, you seemed unsure about White Abarrio’s ability to get the derby distance. And I haven’t read any mention of that in the weeks since. Has your opinion on that changed at all? If you’re still on the fence, which way are you leaning at this time? Thanks.
Pedigree aside, from what I’m seeing I dont believe distance will be a question. His pedigree isnt bad, I just said it didnt shout 1 1/4 miles. That doesnt mean he cant go that far.
Gotcha, thanks Steve.
Steve, thanks again for your measured coverage of the Derby Trail through your Derby Rankings. As they say, nothing beats experience, knowledge plus inborn skill and talent. The last couple of weeks have been particularly helpful in clarifying the puzzle. Now that pleasure will have to wait for another 8 months or so.
Zandon looks the winner but his Achilles heel, the start, might throw a spinner in the works. Let’s hope not, the glorious sight of this exquisite colt in full flight extending his stride down the Churchill Downs straight will be highly emotional. Allez, Zandon!!
The other colts that peek my interest more than others are Charge It and White Albarrio along with a soft spot for Barber Road. The post position draw seemed particularly unkind to Zozos and Mo Donegal but that’s racing, it’s seldom fair to all. Luck will always trump everything anyway. The racing gods win out, always.
Best of luck to all. In the Oaks, Kathleen O. gets the nod. An Upstart, double!! Thanks Steve, you’re a treasure.
Thank you David. Good luck to you
All you really want is a clean race under blue skies. Good luck to you as well.
Agreed. Although reading Steve’s posts, and the comments here, is always a bit of a treasure. Fair weather to all.
Gulp!! Angela, the weather forecast doesn’t look that promising at the moment but the weather is so changeable in Kentucky especially in Spring. Fingers crossed, though.
Steve are you willing to put in a comment on Ethereal Road and any upside or downside! thanks!
I thought he was the best horse in the Rebel and was disappointed with his race in the Blue Grass. On numbers he looks too slow to win, but I still think he has a bright future. I dont know what happened last time out.
Zandon has run well, isbeautiful, He’s one of three I have luve futures money on….still….lot of hype, of him in works, of late, in fact am surprised he is favored….
Asmussen,’shocked if Epic loses’. No fan of. Horse is nice. Draw 3, deal breaker.
I don’t love the #3 post for Epicenter either. Most of the professional handicappers seem to like his draw though. I just feel like he’ll have to be used hard to get out of there and to avoid getting buried by all the horses that will be coming over on him. We’ll see.
Agreed! Proessionals are wrong before. Draw 3, bad.
Epi has been excellent out of the gate so far. With closers to his inside, he should be in a good position on the rail…fifth place and 3 or 4 lengths back when they hit the first turn would be ideal.
Thank you again, Steve, for all the weeks of entertainment leading up to the best day of the year! It’s been great reading every week and I wish you luck in your betting! Have a great Derby Week!!!
Thank you Sally. Same to you. Enjoy the rest of the week.
Steve:
Thank you so much for all of your hard work and incredibly comprehensive analysis of the horses on the Derby trail. If not for your valuable insights, I would be much less prepared for the Derby, and probably, much less successful in cashing! I am not as optimistic this year because I only have 4 futures horses (instead of the 7 or 8 I had last year): Tiz, Smile, Ethereal, and Simplification, and a small futures wager on Mo that, should he win, would cover all of my futures wagers and provide a very small profit. I think I might hedge on Derby day with Messier…As always, if I am fortunate enough to cash my Derby futures for the 4th Derby in a row, dinner is on me any place in Vegas you like!
Also always enjoy all of the insightful commentators here.
I appreciate the kind words. Thank you very much
Recently, I don’t recall the poster, said they like using the breeding cross with the sire Mr. Prospector to broodmare sire Northern Dancer and only 1 has that cross for the Derby, Zozos. I decided to use that cross for the Oaks and I found 4 entries. Hidden Connection, Shahama, Echo Zulu and Candy Raid. I’ve been looking for some Oaks/Derby double possibilities. I’m definitely using these 4. Thanks to whomever.
Hey Liam
You’re welcome. I was the one that posted the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer breeding cross. Zozos is the only colt in this year’s Derby field that was bred from the cross. That’s the reason I’ll be using Zozos in some my exotic wagers, keying him on top in at least one superfecta wager.
As a reminder, a horse’s sire line has to lead directly to Mr. Prospector, and the broodmare sire line has to lead directly to Northern Dancer.
Good luck.
Thanks Bill. I wrote down the query you had posted so I would get it right when doing some pedigree research. Now that he drew in, Ethereal Road fits the bill for that cross. No pun intended..
Yep, you’re right about Ethereal having that Mr. P/ND breeding cross. He was a late entry to the Derby field and I didn’t get around to researching his pedigree. It took him four tries to break his maiden, and didn’t do that well in his two graded race tries, (7th and 4th). I consider him a toss for hitting the board. However, D. Wayne Lukas has been known to finish in the money with a few bombers in past Derby races. I’d be shocked if does the same with Ethereal Road.
Steve, as always, it’s been a pleasure reading your Rankings through the spring. Thank you for all of your expertise, dedication, and hard work!
I was utterly clueless as to whom I planned to pick until I saw Zandon’s latest work at Churchill. That did it for me.
Question: Do you happen to know how Zandon and White Abarrio got their names?
Thanks so much. I had read earlier in the year about their names, but I hate to say I cant remember
I believe it was Nelson Maan who told us that the [original?] owner’s name is Abarrio. Maybe Zandon is named for a planet in the Delta Quadrant in “Star Trek.”
Hi Steve,
First off, thank you for providing an exciting ride on your Derby Weekly Rankings since they started back in January.
We realize the hard work you have put in week after week, it’s deeply appreciated.
Since the post position draw was today, I was wondering if you considered holding off on your “Final 2022 Derby Rankings”, until tomorrow? Or, would those final Derby Rankings be the same, regardless of the draw?
Just to be clear, I’m not trying to put you on the spot, but just curious.
Thanks Steve.
I appreciate it Bill. Thank you very much.
Steve, now that the post draw has been completed would you alter any of your Derby Ranking Dozen now? Just curious.
Probably not. I’m not crazy where Epiicenter drew considering who is inside him and outside him
Yes Steve, that’s what I feel as well. For me, Epicenter’s post position is a major problem. Alternatively, if Epicenter gets a flyer he could run away with the roses.
Ideas regarding draw?
Battaglia history will be against Zandon if he isn’t the post-time favorite. Since 1974 when Battaglia started doing the ML for the Derby, 10 ML favorites were not post-time favorites. Not one of them won the Derby. 😮
How did you dig that one up? You have better research resources than I do. Lol
The Derby media guide provides the raw data. I just do the computations. 🙂
Messier wire to wire. Another merry go round Derby. Wish a closer would spice it up.
No.
Hi Steve.
Dr No here. Before I comment on the race thank you for all of your hard work and insight it is truly appreciated.
I am with you on the Tiz the Bomb. Lets put the dirt issue aside.
– Overall he is the class of the field. He’s run against many of the top horses in the world albeit on turf. His closing kick in the Breeders Cup was off the charts.
– He’s run in big fields so he is accustomed to getting bounced around a bit.
– His time in his last race was one of the better ones at 1 1/8 and he did it rather easily even though he was somewhat wide throughout the race.
– Churchill dirt historically has been very friendly to turf horses. Do we not remember Barbaro (War Front)
– Lastly the connections…. Hernandez-McPeek this is not their first rodeo…
Best of Luck
Dr No
Thanks James. I definitely have to put some kind of bet on him. You just dont know. If he wins I’ll buy you a two week vacation to Crab Key,
Thank you Steve and I will be sipping Whistle Pig Rye Whiskey under the “Mango Tree”
I have no Quarrels with that.
Not to argue about a longshot, but Barbaro won the Florida Derby. If TTB’s turf and AW races were dirt races, he’d be one of the favorites. But alas, they are not.
yes he did however his first three were turf. Sired by Dynaformer a turf sire. Florida Derby was the first one he ran on a fast track previous to that it was the Holy Bull in the slop
Nevertheless, Barbaro proved himself on dirt in a big (biggest?) Derby dirt prep. But as I said, I would never try to dissuade a bettor from going with a 30-1 shot.
Looks like a possible off track which TTB will relish with the Tiznow influence
Eddie,been on Zandon for awhile.
A reply to my Battaglia post? Yes, you have liked the Z for quite a while. I can’t really knock him, and I like his post position. Will the three consecutive 9f races takes the edge off him? Will he have too much to do if he breaks poorly? As a win bet proposition, he would need to be at least 5-1 in my view.
I predict the Bataglia 3-1 morning favorite will get you 5-1….
Eddie, good views regarding Zandon. Also agree w/ u on draw 10.
I don’t think that Tiz the Bomb doesn’t like the dirt. I think that he just doesn’t like getting dirt kicked back into his face. That’s the impression I get from listening to Kenny McPeek.
Then he picked the wrong race!!!
Regarding the morning line odds, I find it interesting that the top Florida Derby runners (White Abarrio, Charge It and Simplification) opened at the same odds, (20-1). Key Zandon on top, with those three underneath, in the tri and super might be worth the investment. In an additional ticket, key Epicenter on top with those three underneath, in the tri and super might be worth it as well.
I was delighted to see Simplification open at 20-1, I’ll be using him in the bulk of my exotic wagers. Other longshots that I find intriguing are Zozos (20-1), Cyberknife (20-1) and Charge It (20-1).
My main superfecta wager will be:
3,10, 13// 3,10,13// 3,10,13// ALL
Safe trips to all.
Mattress Mac ain’t got nothing on Bill! How much is that super? And there’s more? lol
My main super, 3,10,13// 3,10,13//3,10,13// ALL will cost $102.00. And yes, I’ll be placing more exotic wagers (exact, trifecta and supers). I’ve already invested two $100.00 win bets on Simplification, one at 65-1, and the other at 43-1 (Pool 2), and boxed Simplification with All in my exacta wagers (also in Pool 2) for a total investment of $292.00 in Pool 2.
In addition, I plan on taking a stab at the Super HI-5 this year, which I’ve yet to handicap.
Just for the record, I’m a firm believer in that old adage, “you can’t take it with you”.
Good luck with your bets Lil E. Tee
Y’all’s budget is way bigger than mine!
Holy Moly Bill, those are some juicy win odds on Simplification. He’s my key play, across the board. So I’ll be the first to congratulate you on a great call before I do a little victory dance of my own. Haha
If Simplification wins, I’ll be doing a victory dance as well, with a couple shots of Tequila on the side. 🙂
White Abarrio is actually 10 – 1.
You’re right Davids, my bad.
Steve, it’s been an absolute pleasure following your commentaries and the horses for this year’s excellent crop of 3 year olds. I can’t separate 5 or 6 horses for the win, and 4 or 5 others wouldn’t surprise me. Did anyone notice that 14 horses are 20-1 or 30-1 in the ML, yet there’s not one horse at 50-1. Aren’t there always at least a couple entries at 50-1? Seems that Battaglia sees this as the best field in recent years. Will a win by Secret Oath in the Oaks move Cyberknife up in the minds of handicappers despite his relatively weak figures? Will Mo Donegal find himself at the back of the back after breaking from Post 1? Will inexperience keep several of the top betting choices from finding Derby success?
This is the first time in many years I can’t come up with a likely winner, let alone a single win bet. But I’m going to focus on experience and good early speed. Epicenter and White Abarrio qualify in that regard. I expect WA to be higher odds than his 10-1 morning line. He fits the trend of Derby winners that won all (or both) of their 3-year-old starts. I’m relying on my stopwatch timing of WA’s final furlong (about 13 2/5 sec). No way he ran it in 14 1/5 seconds.
I’m not as forgiving as you are about the fades of Smile Happy (my No. 1 since his maiden win until the BG loss) and Simplification (my only KDFW bet, at 43-1). The last Derby winner to lose position in the stretch of the final prep was Silver Charm, and he fought gamely after being a head in front at the stretch call of the SA Derby. He lost by a head. As you pointed out, the layoff between the last two preps for both SH and Simplification is something to consider. But until recently, it’s tough to find many layoffs like that with Derby runners. Barbaro and I’ll Have Another had 2+ months off between their final preps, but they won both preps.
Looking forward to your handicapping column. Hoping for a fast track and clean trips for all runners.
Thank you so much Eddie. And thank you for all the insightful and witty comments all year.
You’re welcome! 🙂
You will hate yourself if Zozos hits the board.
Ha! Not really. I think he has loads of talent and will win big races down the road. That said, I don’t think he’s at Justify’s or Big Brown’s level at this early stage. Plus, the outside posts have not been kind to front-running types.
A late correction: the layoff between the last two preps for horses that lost position in the stretch of the final prep concerned Smile Happy and Messier, not Simplification. Therefore, SH and Messier at least can be excused to some degree for the stretch loss. Simplification cannot.
I certainly understand why you have Zandon first ahead of Epicenter. The buzz is all about
Zandon. But I am still going with Epicenter first and Zandon second. I just think Epcienter has a lot of class
and as you noted can win in a couple of different ways. Sorry that Mo Donegal got the inside post.
Maybe he can hit the board anyway. Taiba is my wild card. I do not know what to make of him yet.
He doesn’t have a lot of foundation to win unless he is a super horse. Messier, I would be surprised to
see him win. Cyberknife is interesting too. I never count Brad Cox out. White Abarrio, an outside shot
to win, but maybe third. I like this horse.
No regard for Epic’s barn,going w/ Brad.
Mike, good to see you. Hope all is well. Asmussen has clearly not had any luck winning this
particular race. Epicenter has a lot to do-get away quick and not get boxed in. But I think
he is a talented. Taiba in a post-position that is not good. He would have to be a super horse
to win from there. I like Cyberknife and think he has a shot. Zandon may have the best shot of all.
Agree! Good seeing u.
Doppelganger entered in The Pat Day Mile, but no Newgrange or McLaren Vale. I did see McLaren Vale entered in an Optional-Claimer somewhere on the FRI-Sat cards. The Saturday card is loaded. 10 or more horses in 11 of the 14 races.
Final answer? Lucky #13 – Simplification (at an incredible 20-1)
The bet: $75 win, $75 place, $75 show
My (final prep) notes: battled for the lead from the start to the stretch, through solid 1st call, very fast 2nd & 3rd calls, held lead until the pole mid stretch, continued valiantly to the wire. Don’t care how slow they came home.
In short, I think the Florida Derby effort really sharpened him. His monstrous gallop outs since only support my theory. If he can avoid trouble (knock on wood) I’m expecting his best race yet. Should be ultra game in the stretch.
Steve Haskin-
Thanks for the Derby Rankings 2022. It was a long ride on the Derby Trail for four months. Your commentary along the way helped keep it interesting. My final pick(s) are Messier (paper selection) and Crown Pride (bet selection). Both drew good post positions. Early in the year had Early Voting in Future Book at 175-1 ($50) but C. Brown had other ideas.
Next year for KD 2023, do you come out with an early preview of contenders in December? Or does everything start up with Derby Rankings Week 1 in late January? Personally, I like betting pedigree with limited form to go on but higher odds.
Didn’t know player profile of hockey player Mark Messier. I only remember Edmonton ruled the ice in the 1980-90s when Gretzky played. But, Bobby Orr was the top player in the NHL. Career cut short due to knee injury.
Good luck playing the Derby.
7.5 Furlongs
Bobby Orr – Boston Bruins 1966-1976 – 2 Stanley Cups.
Wayne Gretsky – Edmonton Oilers 1979-1988 – 4 Stanley Cups. Mark Messier went along for the ride.
Thanks Steve for another year of priceless insight into your KY Derby rankings. Your insights and opinions have been greatly appreciated by myself and many others who frequent this blog. I am glad to lock in KY Derby favorite Zandon at 56-1 in KDFW1. Zandon drew well being in the middle from PP10. I would love to see Zandon break well and settle either in the second flight or midpack. Rain could be in the forecast for the KY Derby. A wet track will not hinder Zandon as he rallied and romped in the Bluegrass on a wet track. I also believe like you Steve that Tiz The Bomb is very live and could very well upset the apple cart at big odds.
I really appreciate that Joe. Thank you very much.
Thank you Steve for another great analysis of the Derby Starters. Still a lot to consider. Weather, health issues, etc. Many things could change between now and post time.Mo Donegal draw didn’t seem to worry Todd. Epicenter’s position might not be ideal but he should be able to handle it. Crown Pride is definitely interesting. Right now I like zandon but that can change.
Rain is possible but you never know in Ky.
Battaglia is relying on a Keeneland surface that clearly flattered closer types all meet….Nest and Zandon, 5/2 & 3-1….Zandon was last at the half mile pole, over a track that favored his closing style….3-1?…..
Zandon is the colt that has impressed me the most since his first race but I wish I had the confidence of 3 -1.
The Oaks Morning Line Odds surprise me a little bit. Apparently, Mike Battaglia sees it as a 3-horse race. Six weeks ago, who would have thought that Secret Oath would be 6-1 on the ML? Or that Echo Zulu would be the 3rd choice on the ML? Was Echo Zulu’s comeback race that bad? She was tenacious on the lead to nose out Hidden Connection. Maybe it’s the fact that EZ had such a hard time beating the likes of Hidden Connection that people don’t like.
Not much drama in the draw other than Lukas get the rail in the Oaks and the outside in the Derby-odd. And speaking about odds…really concerned about the morning line right now….wasn’t the last two ml favs Essential Quality and Tiz the Law?
Yes.
Epicenter has two closers inside him from post 3 and speed in post 4 so he has to break clean and go.
I have a feeling that many people will be buying 10-10 Oaks/Derby Double tickets.
Poor Manny Franco. He agrees to come in from New York to ride horses for Brad Cox in The Oaks & Derby and they assign his Oaks horse, Turnerloose, post #14 and his Derby mount, Zozos, post position #19. That’s no way to treat a visitor. Can a guy catch a break?
Bataglia ML Zandon 3-1…My projected odds 5-1…..Bataglia ML Epicenter 7/2—my projected odds 4-1….Bataglia odds Taiba 12-1–My projected odds 8-1….Bataglia Ml odds Tiz the Bomb 30-1–my projected odds 15-1….Bataglia Smile Happy 20-1…My projected odds 10-1….
Cut Mike some slack. They said that he has been making Morning Lines for 48 years. They didn’t even give the guy any camera time.
3 -1 & 7-2 seem pretty low for a contentious 20-horse field.
By the time they start to load all of those odds will change Still liking Crown Pride and he drew a good spot for him. White Abarrio drew well with 15. If Summer is Tomorrow breaks well he should grab the early lead from Messier. Mike should have Taiba near the lead. Mo D will save ground. As for the Oaks Echo Zulu drew well and I like Secret Oath in the 1 hole
I forgot about Crown Pride, and am wondering IF–Japanese betting pools are included this year in the Churchill pool–if so Crown Pride could be bet down!
Crown Pride is really looking great. Can his jockey get him there is my question? Regardless he should hit the board. Epicenter is not a flashy morning work horse but he has been ticking all the boxes. Cyberknife has been working well but not sure how well he will handle the circus.
Steve Haskin called it. Zandon 3-1 ML Favorite. Epicenter 7-2.
The question becomes Which way is Mattress Mac going to go now?
Steve, yet another masterfully written Derby Dozen. You have me thinking that ANY of your top 12 picks can win. I agree that Zandon and Epicenter are the most likely winners, although I am uncertain where Smile Happy fits in. At the moment — before post positions are announced — I’ve pegged the finish this way:
1 Epicenter
2 Zandon
3 Simplification
4 Mo Donegal
5 Crown Pride
6 Smile Happy
For betting angles, I’ll likely include Zozos (although his relatively undistinguished sprinter’s pedigree works against him; call it a hunch bet.) It will be interesting, among other results, to see whether Taiba or Messier can win without the official touch of the master, Bob Baffert. I have them finishing out of the money. I’ve also compiled some notes on the tail female breeding of the major contenders that I will post later. Thanks once again for a highly memorable Derby Trail. I think it’s the best one yet.
Thanks very much. It’s been an interesting journey. Zozos in post 19.
He’ll really be a long price now!
STEVE: Thank you for all your hard work on the derby trail been watching it for over 20+years. I have a couple ? about TIZ THE BOMB .I heard for years that CD dirt track is helpful to turf horses also how will a wet track effect him. GOOD LUCK TO YOUAND THANKS AGAIN FOR THE 20+YEARS. SWEDE
Thank you Roger. Several grass horses have run in well in the Derby
Un Ojo is out, Ethereal Road makes the field now.
As Steve Haskin points out, Zandon feels like the “buzz” horse now. Maybe Epicenter taking 6 weeks off has something to do with it. Out of sight, out of mind. It will be very interesting to see who Mike Battaglia makes as his Morning Line Favorite this afternoon.
Thank you Steve. It’s a tough one this year. So I am backing Cyber Knife because he’s a Gun Runner colt and he’s trained by Brad Cox. Also I loved Flower Alley. Totally an emotional pick!
Nothing wrong with emotional picks
According to the weather forecast, we might have to start looking for some “mudders”. But, I’ve noticed one thing in all my years of watching The Derby: the weather can change fast in Louisville for whatever reason. Still, it’s always a shame when the weather impacts an event that so many people have been looking forward to. Go for Gin, Orb, Mine that Bird, and Super Saver come to mind. I was thinking that an “off” track would be a new experience for Messier. But, then I see Empire Maker and a Smart Strike mare in his pedigree. Probably best to let it all play out before changing course, but Mo Donegal is moving up my list.
I’m sure that nobody wants to see anything like the fiasco of 2019 with Maximum Security and Country House. Country House’s final race.
Well I’m sure they won’t make the same mistake of harrowing open the sealed track if there’s even a 1% chance of rain. That was a bit too optimistic and devastating to the track in the end when the clouds burst open and made peanut butter of the surface. Tough break. Fingers crossed that the weather gods will be kind.
Thank you Steve for your detailed expert analysis. Hard to believe the Derby is finally here. The 2 horses I will be keying on are Zandon and Messier.
I really like both
Rains are predicted for Friday, possible Sat, as well…ther roll down wet track surfaces, today, which aids the pace horses because without the cushion horses don’t get as fatigued…and closers still get 10 lbs of mud to carry…
Steve, concerning Epicenter I think you meant the Louisiana Derby, and that is some pretty high praise comparing his development to American Pharoah. I’ll get back to you on rest.
Yep I fixed that. Thank you!
At the start of the SAD, Taiba beat Messier and Mike Pulled him back. 53 of the last 56 winners have been first or second a furlong from the wire. This field has several starters lightly raced, so consider in 1982 the average starts was ten, in 1992, 8.5 and since the twenty horse field, now 5. It’s clear that times have changed. On the Thorograph and Ragozins, Taiba in two starts is already faster than this field, he has speed and I believe the SAD he showed he can sit off two very good speed horses and go three wide and finish without much urging.
For the first time in ages I will not be using any CA horses on any tickets. I can’t bet a horse with 2 starts and I won’t bet Messier who was beaten by a horse with two starts.
Also won’t bet White Abarrio. We have no idea if he can run away from Gulfstream.
Fisrt of all, I have to tell you how much I laugh at your handle. It’s warranted. As for not using Messier on your tickets, I would rethink that one. I don’t think he will win but I do expect a better effort from him. I got burned last year ignoring Steve’s warning about Medina Spirit even though he finished a well beat second in the SA Derby. Good luck with your tickets.
Hi, Clownskill! Plenty of Ky Derby winners had won only at one track. And White Abarrio didn’t run badly at CD last year. There are also quite a few Derby winners that had decent (but not winning) previous efforts at CD.
This year is a bet on whether Zandon will get out of the gate quicker than he has in his previous races. In my opinion he’s not really a closer, he just takes 3 or 4f to get going and by then he’s near the back of the pack. I think he’s the most talented horse going into the race but sometimes that horse isn’t able to get close enough to the front to showcase that talent.
Who is more likely to hit the board? Epicenter or Zandon?
BOTH!