Five Card Studs for Derby 151
With a lull in the racing action, at least until this upcoming weekend when Churchill Downs unveils several new Kentucky Derby prospects to get excited about, we might as well get our first touch of Derby fever by looking at five up-and-comers who might be worth following. ~ Steve Haskin
Five Card Studs for Derby 151
By Steve Haskin
The sure sign that there is not much going on in racing right now are the number of Kentucky Derby rankings and previews on podcasts, social media sites, and YouTube, which as we all know is pretty useless five and a half months before the Run for the Roses.
I happen to be in the same funk, but with 14 weeks of Derby Rankings beginning in mid-January I am not about to engage in such activity, especially with the big 2-year-old card at Churchill Downs coming up next Saturday, headed by the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. And by the way, there have been two KJC winners who went on to win the Derby in the past 60 years. So for some reason, winning this Grade 2 stakes going two turns at Churchill Downs has had little bearing at all on the Derby.
With all that said, I do have to fill space this week, and the Derby is still the best filler. So what I am going to do is profile five horses who so far have met all the criteria I look for in a Derby horse. But first here is what I look for and don’t look for at this early date.
First off, I am bypassing any horse with only one sprint start regardless of his final time, speed rating, and margin of victory. No horse stamps himself as a serious Derby prospect in his career debut. They may stamp themselves as brilliant, exciting horses, but I have seen too many of those horses regress against winners or go on to be one-turn specialists. So although horses like recent 1-5 first-out winner Grayscale looked like a flat-out runner with a strong pedigree top and bottom, I am not ready to include him on a list with only five Derby prospects off one six-furlong maiden race at Gulfsteam. And you have to have mixed feelings about a young horse who has the audacity to make a spectacle of himself by working a half-mile in :44 4/5 before ever running.
So here is what I do look for. I want to see a horse who A) already has shown he is a professional, does everything asked of him, and can do it under all kinds of circumstances; B) Has a smooth fluid stride with great extension that suggests he wants to go longer distances; C) Keeps a relatively straight course in the stretch, even when hit left- or right-handed with the crop; D) Has no, or minimal, flaws up front. If you can’t see the back legs from a head-on view it is because all four legs are perfectly aligned. I was extremely high on Sierra Leone after his maiden win despite his flaws because he did compensate for it with a quick turn of foot and a powerful engine, and sometimes in cases like that you will give a horse time to correct his flaws if he has the right trainer. In his case it took him longer than expected, but he still almost won the Derby even with the flaws. So you treat each horse individually and occasionally try to look into the future.
There are other things that are not essential, but are plusses that you do like to see in a young horse, such as the way he gallops out after a race. If a horse just keeps going and leaves the others far behind after the wire it shows you he’s not tiring and wants to do more, and signifies a horse who is fit and ready to stretch out in distance. Again, some trainers might not want their horse to have a strong gallop-out for whatever reason, so I don’t hold that against them. It’s just something I like to see.
As for speed figures, basically the Thoro-Graph numbers, it is still too early to make any judgment based on them, but I will mention them only to give you an idea what their starting point looks like and if there are any early patterns forming.
And finally, I study the pedigree, concentrating more on the dam’s family than the sire’s. That is where the majority of the stamina comes from. Top stallions like Tapit, Curlin, Into Mischief, and Gun Runner sire sprinters or one-turn horses as well as distance horses. But if there is a lot of stamina on the dam’s side you can have sires who were sprinters or milers like Goldencents, Boundary, Elusive Quality, Lucky Pulpit, Our Emblem, Gulch, and Distorted Humor all sire Kentucky Derby winners.
In this column I am focusing more on potential Derby prospects who have not yet achieved national recognition, so here are five horses, excluding those who ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, who I feel are worth following at this very early date. For the record, I still feel the most gifted of all the stakes horses we’ve seen is East Avenue. He escaped the disastrous stumble at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile unscathed and is “doing great” according to Godolphin president Dan Pride. He is currently at Churchill Downs and will ship to Fair Grounds at the end of the month. This grand-looking colt is the perfect blend of brilliance and class and his Juvenile was a complete throw-out.
SOVEREIGNTY
Speaking of East Avenue, he and Sovereignty were two of the 27 Godolphin babies broken and trained by Joan “Meda” Murphy at Bridlewood Farm in Ocala. Murphy has developed top horses such as Hall of Famer Gun Runner and Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit, as well as Maxfield and Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish for Godolphin, so she knows what a good horse looks like. She rates the young horses in groups and grades them A, B, and C. Of the Godolphin horses East Avenue and Sovereignty were the top two colts in the “A” group.
I actually had him on my radar screen after his sccond start in September but didn’t have five horses at that time, In his first three starts he has moved forward each time. In his first start, going six furlongs at Saratoga, he broke well but dropped back to 10th and was still a dozen lengths back at the top of the stretch, giving himself too much to do in the stretch. He closed relentlessly but couldn’t catch the three battling leaders, but blew by all three past the wire. The winner, Top Top Thomas, came back to finish second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes.
Stretching out to a flat mile at Aqueduct, he broke sharply and was able sit right off the pace in third. In the stretch, the highly regarded Praetor quickly drew off after turning for home to open up by four lengths. Sovereignty finally kicked into gear in the final furlong and was gobbling up the ground with a :12 flat final eighth, just missing by a neck, then galloping out 10 lengths in front. That’s when he first caught my eye.
Trainer Bill Mott thought so highly of him and was so anxious to try him around two turns he ran him next in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs even though he was still a maiden. Sent off at odds of 7-5, he dropped back breaking from post 9 and was last down the backstretch. Then came the explosion you wanted to see. Swinging seven-wide, he went from 9th to first from the quarter pole to the eighth pole, inhaling the field with one powerful swoop under a hand ride and then drawing off to a five-length victory geared down, while coming home in :24 flat and :06 1/5 for the final sixteenth. He kept going past the wire and galloped out a long way.
He does everything right regarding his lead changes, keeping a straight course, and striding out smoothly down the stretch. Murphy remembers him as being a good-feeling, powerful colt and very professional
As for pedigree, this is a no-brainer, being by Into Mischief, who has two Kentucky Derby winners to his credit, out of a Bernardini mare. Both his maternal great-grandsires, A.P. Indy and Empire Maker, won the Belmont Stakes, and if you believe the ‘70s was racing’s Golden Decade, in his pedigree are Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle, Slew, and Affirmed, as well as Spectacular Bid and Alydar. And he is inbred to Seattle Slew and Fappiano on the dam’s side and has Secretariat top and bottom.
His early Thoro-Graph pattern is solid enough, going from a 9 ½ to a 6 to a 5 ¾, giving him a strong launching pad for next year. Nothing too fast early, but all numbers you want to see in a horse’s early progression.
He recently arrived at Mott’s barn at Payson Park and a schedule for his 2025 campaign will be mapped out shortly.
JOURNALISM
He isn’t quite as polished as stablemate Bullard, but the raw talent is there and he will no doubt improve with maturity. I give him an edge, as he was strctching out to a mile and came home in an impressive :24 4/5. In his debut going six furlongs at Santa Anita, he was hustled out of the gate, but couldn’t keep up and dropped back to fifth and last in the five-horse field. He was stuck on his left lead and didn’t fire until he found another inside the eighth pole and closed ground late to finish third.
Stretching out to a two-turn mile at Del Mar, he broke sharply on his own and was taken back to fifth along the inside, swung to the outside approaching the quarter pole and again seemed to be lumbering a bit on his left lead, as the far more experienced Rank asserted himself and took the lead after turning for home. But as they passed the eighth pole Journalism finally changed leads and did it smoothly, and kicked into another gear. He charged past Rank and drew off to a 2 ½-length victory in 1:36 2/5.
He still has to smooth out the rough edges. We know he has speed in the morning, working half-miles in :47 2/5 and then :46 4/5, and looks to still be a work in progress. His mechanics are good, but he’ll have to start changing leads earlier. He was an $825,000 yearling purchase so there is no questioning his physical attributes.
He is by Curlin, out of the Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, who won or placed in stakes at 2,3,4, and 5. And his second dam is by Bernardini, so there should be no questions about stamina.
Earlier, we mentioned how East Avenue and Sovereignty were both broken by Joan Murphy at Bridlewood Farm. Well, this guy came off the same farm, and Murphy was high on him as well, but as we can see in his races he was a bit immature back then. She added however, that he was “smart as a whip with class oozing out of him” and she expected big improvement in his second start.
We didn’t expect his Thoro-Graph numbers to be fast this early and he followed up his 12 with a 9 ¼, so there is still work to be done. But he should continue to show steady progress. we’ll just have to wait to see if he shows it quick enough for the Derby. But with his long powerful stride and plenty of time to mature, the sky’s the limit.
One horse bred by Bridlewood Farm who sold for $725,000 as a yearling is Praetor, by Into Mischief, out of a Curlin mare. He hasn’t worked since narrowly beating Sovereignty in September, but keep an eye on the work tab for him. He is one to watch down the road.
ADMIRAL DENNIS
One of these years the Derby gods are going to give the long-awaited thumbs up to the Albaugh family after so many years on the Derby trail, so much hope, and so many tough breaks. Since 2016, the Albaugh Family Stables of Dennis Albaugh and racing manager Jason Loutsch has had 10 Kentucky Derby prospects, seven of whom ran on the first Saturday in May. Three of those were in 2023 when they finished third with Angel of Empire, and in 2024 finished fourth, beaten 1 ¾ lengths, with Catching Freedom. Along the way the stable has won the Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Gotham Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Smarty Jones Stakes, Gun Runner Stakes, and the Breeders’ Futurity and Iroquois Stakes twice, while placing in the Florida Derby, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Fountain of Youth, Louisiana Derby, and Risen Star.
But with such a strong presence on the Derby trail year after year they still have been unable to find the winner’s circle.
Now they are back with another good one in Admiral Dennis, who has shown great promise in his two starts. In his career debut going 6 ½ furlongs at Churchill Downs, he broke slowly then moved up quickly into third, but got bottled up in traffic and spent the entire stetch run looking for racing room. He finally dove down to the rail and finished evenly to be third.
In his next start he stretched out to a mile at Churchill. Breaking from the far outside in post 10 he moved up to third and stalked the pace. He cruised to the lead on the turn, but ran into a stubborn foe in the stretch and fought it out briefly under a vigorous hand ride before pulling away late to win going away by 3 1/2 lengths in a sharp 1:35 4/5, coming home his final quarter in :24 3/5.
This is a beautiful moving colt with a long reaching stride. He holds his legs under him perfectly and changes leads so smoothly you barely notice it.
He is inbred to the great broodmare Weekend Surprise through her son A.P. Indy at the very top to sire Constitution and her daughter Lassie’s Legacy at the very bottom to dam Gulf Coast, so Admiral’s Dennis’ sire and dam trace directly to Secretariat’s daughter.
Admiral Dennis’ paternal grandsire Tapit has sired four Belmont Stakes winners and his maternal grandsire Union Rags won the Belmont. To expand on his classic pedigree he is also inbred top and bottom to English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky.
In his first start he ran a 13 ¼ Thoro-Graph number, then jumped to a 7 ¾, putting himself in a perfect position heading into his 3-year-old campaign.
SHOWCASE
I must preface this by reporting that trainer Todd Pletcher admitted Sunday evening that it is going to be tight for him to make the Derby. So this likely is more like a top four. With that said, I will keep him here and he still gets high marks even though he has yet to run farther than 6 ½ furlongs and has been sidelined since his victory in the Saratoga Special on August 10. But what a victory that was. He is back galloping in Ocala, but obviously still has a lot of catching up to do.
There is nothing not to like about this son of Uncle Mo, who looked like a world beater in his career going 5 ½ furlongs, although I do prefer a 2-year-old debuting at six furlongs or longer. But he was totally dominant, pressing the early pace and then drawing off at will under a hand ride to win by 7 1/2 lengths, while being eased up in the final 70 yards. His lead change was smooth, he kept a straight course down the stretch, and he carries his legs under him beautifully.
His next start, the Saratoga Special, was the race I feel really defined him. Sent off at 3-1, he was stuck down on the inside in fifth in a bunched up five-horse field with nowhere to go turning for home. He tried to split horses, but whatever hole there was closed quickly as he was bumped from the outside. Irad Ortiz tried a desperate move angling to the rail with the hope getting though on the inside. But as that began to close up as well he yanked him back to the outside, found a small seam, and the colt burst through and quickly drew clear on his way to an emphatic 3 ¼-length victory.
Even track announcer Frank Mirahmadi was impressed, as he called before they hit the wire “And how much the best was Showcase? He’s got the look and the ability. He bounds home with plenty left…ultra impressive.”
Once again, even with his troubled stretch run he was striding out beautifully after charging to the lead and was straight as the proverbial string in the final sixteenth.
Looking at his pedigree, his only inbreeding is to Caro. Most people would pay little attention to that, but Caro was one of the most underrated sires of his time, especially on an international scale. In the U.S. he sired Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors; Breeders; Cup Mile winner Cozzene, who is the only stallion to sire the winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (Alphabet Soup) and Breeders’ Cup Turf (Tikkanen); and Arlington Million winner Golden Pheasant, who also won the Japan Cup. In France, he sired the winners of the French Derby and French Oaks and the French 1,000 Guineas and 2,000 Guineas. He also sired German Horse of the Year Nebos and Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval. And he is the broodmare sire of 2-year-old champion Maria’s Mon, sire of Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos; Preakness winner Red Bullet; and the brilliant racehorse and sire Unbridled’s Song, whose best son was Hall of Famer Arrogate.
Showcase’s dam is by Violence, sire of champion Forte and other top stakes winner. His third dam, Grade 1 Test and Ballerina winner Lady Tak, is by Mutakkdin, who is inundated with Phipps breeding top and bottom, being by Seek the Gold, out of a mare by Seattle Slew, out of Dance Number, who is out of Numbered Account.
Although Showcase’s two Thoro-Graph numbers are a 15 ½ and an 8, that was still a big jump and he should only keep improving. If he doesn’t make the Derby watch out fo him a little farther down the road.
BULLARD
Both he and Journalism are trained by Mike McCarthy and both ran on the same day. And both left a very positive impression. Although Bob Baffert’s 2-year-olds dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, these two well-bred colts could catch up to them very quickly. Bullard is more advanced of the two having already won the Bob Hope Stakes. He is a big long-striding colt who was able to rally from sixth at the top of the stretch in his career debut at six furlongs and run down the Bob Baffert-trained Kalea Bay while still on his left lead. He came home his final quarter in :24 1/5 to win by 1 ¼ lengths and it was huge gap to third. He was all business, finishing with his ears back and galloping out eight to 10 lengths ahead of the others.
With that race under his belt it was on to the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes also at Del Mar. Dropping back to last, as he did in his debut, he moved out four-wide on the turn after a rapid pace. He didn’t change leads again, but finally managed to around the eighth pole when a horse drifted out toward him and he briefly shied from him. When he switched leads he quickly opened up by four lengths showing great acceleration. He again won with his ears back, scoring by 4 ¾ lengths in a sharp 1:22 2/5, and again was long gone on the gallop-out.
A son of Gun Runner, his third dam is Blush With Pride, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, Santa Susana (now Santa Anita Oaks), and Ashland Stakes. His second dam Smolensk was a Goup 2 winner in France.
His Thoro-Graph numbers are just what you’re looking for with a 9 ½ first out and a jump to a 5 ½ in the Bob Hope.
Photo courtesy of Coady Media, Churchill Downs.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Great Article by the BEST!
RE: G2 Remsen Stakes, Aqueduct, 12-1 (R7)
A short field of seven are entered in referenced race, at 9 furlongs. Studlydoright, by Nyquist, out of Curlin mare, is coming off a hard-fought win in the Nashua Stakes, on November 2nd, going a mile in 1:37.23. His pedigree reflects an abundance of class and stamina on his dam side, with Numbered Account showing up in his 4th generation.
His sire, Nyquist, winner of the 2016 Kentucky Derby, needs no introduction.
The Remsen is a KD prep race, with the winner earning 10 points.
I’ll go with Studlydoright to hit the wire first.
Thanks for the reminder Bill.
You may remember the Remsen of last year being a key race with Dornoch and soon-to-be champion 3-year-old Sierra Leone staging an electric finish. They left the field 5 lenghts behind which included future Grade one winner and Tampa Derby winner Domestic Product, Jerome Stakes winner Drum Roll Please (2nd in FoY), and Copper Tax the best 3-year-old of Laurel Park.
Studlydoright is the class in this Remsen for sure. His campaign of 3 wins including the Tremont and the Nashua Stakes, and a placing in the Sanford as the favorite puts the son of Nyquist on top of the field in terms of experience and foundation.
I have not reviewed the videos of the other contenders but Poster, Tux and Keewaydin (on paper) look like good ones ready to big jumps in form, especially if the track plays very fast.
Chad Brown might be on something with Keewaydin whose pedigree screams sprinting top and bottom. We should check the track bias to see if the son of Instagrand can stretch from 7 furlongs to the 1 1/8 mile this Saturday.
It is curious that Tux and Poster got the same Munnings/Tapit cross in reverse.
All four got very good post positions and it is expected them to fill the High 5…
You’re welcome, Nelson.
If Poster can transfer his turf form over Aqueduct’s dirt track, he could be dangerous. The other two you mentioned, (Tux & Keewaydin) could give Studlydoright all he can handle. The morning line has yet to be posted, but I would think Studlydoright will be the likely favorite.
Go Luck, Nelson.
2nd series in Japanese Road to Kentucky Derby, the Zen Nippon-Nisai Yishun comes up on December 18 at the Kawasaki track. Been trying to find the entries but no luck so far, might be too early. This is the race Forever Young won to qualify for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
Natural Rise (Kizuna out of Lady Madonna) won the Cattelaya and has ten points.
Into Mischief’s current crop of 2yr. old colts continue to shine. Burning Glory, by Into Mischief, out of a Tapit mare, broke his maiden at Churchill on Sunday, 12-1, tracking fast fractions of 22.64, 45.10, 1:09.89, 1:22.42 drawing off by a neck in a good time of 1:35.40 for the 1-mile distance. He earned an impressive Equibase Speed Figure of 93 for his winning effort.
Just as a recap, Into Mischief has seven legitimate prospects on the 2025 KD trail.
They are as follows:
Barnes
Burning Glory
Citizen Bull
Donut God
Into Midnight
Praetor
Sovereignty
Of those seven, I would rate Sovereignty as Into Mischief’s top prospect, with Citizen Bull a close 2nd.
I neglected to add Patch Adams, who burned up the track, going 7 furlongs in 1:20.77, at CD on 11-30.
On a side note, I noticed the KD Futures Sires Pool 2 had Into Mischief closing at 12-1, the lowest odds of all the sires listed. All Other Sires, closed at 12-1 as well.
I’m not surprised that Into Mischief closed as the favorite sire.
Bill, I’m glad Burning Glory won, but man, how does Into Mischief keep throwing such good horses? It’s almost magical!
Hi Ms Blacktype
Into Mischief’s $250K stud fee says it all. He’s the personification of a stud, and what’s more, he has several more 2yr. olds out there that have yet to race.
I see the second Kentucky Derby pool has closed with first-time winner Barnes as the 13-1 favorite. Someone must be reading this column, Steve, because Admiral Dennis is on the list of individual betting choices (38 to 1), as is one-time starter Uncle Jim (30 to 1), Journalism (52 to 1), and Sovereignty (19 to 1).
In other news, I see Patch Adams got a 98 Beyer for his impressive win at Churchill Saturday, over 7 furlongs. That’s up there.
Resolute Racing has announced that Good Night Olive has been booked to Seize The Gray for the 2025 breeding season.
Another interesting combination that sounds promising.
Goodnight Olive should be carrying a Not This Time. I like that already!
They also have Caravel in England bred to Frankel. I like that better than the knee-jerk Justify plan. They plan to breed her back in Europe after she foals, then bring her home. Lots of great turf sires to choose from… anyone think it’ll be City of Troy?
Resolute is doing some interesting – and potentially crafty – things as far as gathering up the genetics they want.
True Nicks came back A+ on Seize The Grey and Goodnight Olive.
Could not run City of Troy and Caravel as City of Troy is not in the True Nicks database yet.
Lynda, both Seize the Grey and Goodnight Olive have the same damsire (Smart Strike). In addition to plenty of Mr. P, there will be three crosses of Deputy Minister in the resulting foal. But I’m sure you noticed that!
Katy or Lynda
Any word on who Idiomatic will be bred to ?
Dts, I have not heard.
She did retire early enough in 2024 that she could have been.
Going out on a limb here and suggest possibly one of the stallions on the Juddmonte roster either here or in the UK. Also, a Godolphin stallion that stands here.
At the time of her retirement I believe it was the racing manager who said it eas going to be a hard decision to make in that only a very few stallions would be good enough for a mare of her caliber (paraphrasing).
How does True Nick’s show a breeding with her and Justify? Just curious.
Idiomatic is not yet listed in True Nicks.
I did go through the backdoor on Coolmore site and got a rating of AA+ based on the sons of Scat Daddy and Curlin.
Idiomatic is a tall 17.2 H and leggy mare and Justify is right at 17H and heavily muscled and weighs around 1300 pounds.
Possibly a tall, leggy foal that will weigh over 175 lbs.
For a virgin mare that might result in complications and I do emphasize might.
My Vet back home in Virginia was a reproductive specialist and he always cautioned about the size of the stallion on the first foal.
Went through backdoor way on Darley America.
A on Medaglia d’Oro
A++ on Nyquist.
Correction, A+ on Justify
Hi Lynda, Justify is 16.3 hands. Is that still too tall?
DTS, Justify was 16.3 when he eas retired as I read. That is an inch shy of 17. He was just 3 and horses including Thoroughbreds do continue to grow in height until they are 4. That is why is rounded off to 17.
Arabians continue to grow in height until they are 5 believe it or not and they are still shedding teeth until almost 4.
I am not definitively saying Justify is too tall or large boned for a first foal for Idiomatic, only that is what my vet told me in Virginia.
She is a big girl and he is a big boy, which usually results in a big foal.
I can see them on equiline, and Idiomatic nicked A++ with Frankel and – of all horses – American Pharoah.
That’s why I pondered on the Frankel cross in an earlier column. That, and he’s Juddmonte. Prospector in 4 and 5 is the only new introduction of inbreeding not coming from Frankel himself.
The American Pharoah idea is WAY more Unbridled than I like, but they might see it differently. He was certainly a warrior and quite brilliant. Their stride types would sure look good together!
I wouldn’t hesitate to send her to Medaglia with the A Nick. He’s the Sadler’s Wells line stallion who is handiest. No inbreeding through 5, as usual for him. Only so many more opportunities to go to him, too. He is a massive horse, but not super tall at 16.2.
Another Darley option I tried was Hard Spun at 16.3. I always like to see The Rivals in the same pedigree: Curlin and Hard Spun’s offspring play nicely together. That’s an A Nick as well.
I like her with Into Mischief (A Nick), too.
She nicks poorly with Tapit and sons, and gets a B with Gun Runner, despite Storm Cat inbreeding in the 4th generation – same generation, different position as in the Into Mischief cross.
A+ with Uncle Mo (no inbreeding no through 5), A++ with his son Nyquist – and the Storm Cat inbreeding in 4 reappears in that cross.
I could do this for an even longer time, but I’ll quit!
Just retired Lemon Pop might be a good choice for Idiomatic.
He will be standing at Godolphin in Japan.
See post below by David that Lemon Pop might sire Kentucky Derby winners in Japan.
I agree with David.
Lemon Pop’s pedigree suggests he certainly could sire a Classic contender.
Katy, the only concern I have about STG and GNO is that Smart Strike is the dam sire for both STG and GNO.
That would, if I did it correctly, the resulting foal would be 3s x3d. In most circles that close would be considered to be in breeding not line breeding.
In human terms second cousins.
I was posting about this (above) at roughly the same time. Pedigree will be fashionable, but a little too inbred for my taste.
Just saw that, LOL.
Too close for my tastes too.
Lynda, fascinating information on Thoroughbred growth patterns. I would hope somewhere down the line those 2 will be bred together I think would be one powerful and intelligent foal. Again thanks for all your research here. If Idiomatic True Nick’s comes thru please run it would be interested in the results. Again thank you
DTS. Will do and thank you.
If y’all didn’t see the earlier post, almost all of them are on equiline for fun and enjoyment, arm chair pedigree-maker style.
Agree, and look how non-durable poor Rich Strike has been with all his up-close, pasture accident-style Smart Strike breeding.
I feel the same way about the American Pharoah x Idiomatic option, despite the Nick and talent.
American Pharoah’s pedigree almost makes him a dead end, like when we breed cattle for terminal crosses.
David, Rank worked today in 1:00 and change, so he’s definitely going to run again this year
The longer work makes me think he’s going to run at least 1 1/16 – so either he ships from CA to a MSW or he’s pointing to the Los Al Futurity
Betsy, Rank is nominated for the Los Alamitos Futurity in a fortnight so that would seem the most logical step plus there are points involved.
The Remsen this Saturday has an interesting field. Tux by Tapit out of the Munnings filly Fancy Dress Party was impressive on his debut and is trained by Bill Mott.
Poster by Munnings out of the Tapit filly Pin Up is another interesting colt as well. Pin Up’s dam is Cara Rafaela also the dam of Bernardini as you would know. I like the cross both ways so let’s hope the weather stays fine.
The Cigar Mile looks like a cracking race ‘if’ the track is not speed bias too much Post Time has a good chance for a win but it won’t be easy.
That’s a good point about the points!
So there’s a Tapit out of a Munnings mare, and a Munnings out of a Tapit mare? 😂
Love the pedigree on the latter, but I’ll always root for the Tapits!
It sure is a corker – good luck to Post Time!
A HAP colt I’ve been following for months finally debuts – at 1 mile on turf, GP- Dazzle AP
I’m torn – sad that it’s on the turf, but shoot he’s finally running. Christophe worked him a couple of times on turf at the Spa, then 3 on dirt since coming to FL. I’m hoping he’s running on turf as the colt is ready and this is what came up, but to be fair, his damsire (Twirling Candy) is a strong turf influence, and Dazzle’s dam is a full sister to Shoemaker Mile winner Exaulted
Betsy, Dazzle A. P. was sold for $260,000 at the OBSAPR’24 so he must have shown quite a lot of promise there and has a top trainer in Christophe Clement and has Tyler Gaffalione who rides well at Gulfstream Park.
Fingers crossed. Why sad it’s on the turf? Are you forgetting Heart of Honor?
Have you seen Tux’s win? Very impressive debut.
David, his work was considered to be outstanding – but it was on an all-weather track, so not dirt
I like turf racing, but I wanted this colt to be a Classic horse. And I doubt his owners spent that much hoping for a turf horse. That said, I just want him to be a good one as HAP needs all he can get
Of course I haven’t forgotten Heart, but he’s never run on turf
I haven’t seen the race, but his chart look nice….!
Betsy, did you notice that the dam of Fort Bragg, March X Press has a yearling filly by Honor A. P..
March X Press foaled a Constitution filly this year and is expecting a Flightline foal next Spring.
I didn’t, David – thanks for the notice!
Betsy, I hope he is being pointed to an MSW and not the Los Al Futurity. Baffert usually points several of his 2 year olds to that race and one that I think is Gaming. Not saying Rank can’t beat them but he will have his work cut out for him. Baffert has won the race 14 times. Good Luck but I would look for an easier race.
Remember Hall of Fame, the 3-year-old that broke his maided at Fair Grounds clocking faster time than that of Track Phantom in winning the Lecomte Stakes. Hall of Fame did not show the same ability in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby and was sidelined since March…
He has just won the first race at Churchill defeating an overmatched field very easily in an outstanding 1:33.79 for the mile.
The son of Gun Runner is bound to become a top miler in 2025.
Lemon Pop will retire to Darley Japan after winning his second Champions Cup at Chukyo Racecourse dirt track. By Lemon Drop Kid out of the Giants Causeway mare Unreasonable the handsome chestnut may be siring future Kentucky Derby contenders.
Wish him well.
Davids, I am looking forward to Lemon Pop’s progeny.
Render Judgment, by Blame (the only horse that beat Zenyatta) out of Barbara Gordon, by Commissioner, is bred to go long. His pedigree reflects an abundance of stamina influence top and bottom. The KJC will be his class test against several colts that have been class tested in recent races, namely, He’s Not Joking, Jonathan’s Way, Dapper Moon, Filoso, Clock Tower, Tiztastic and First Resort. With respect to the afore mentioned colts, Jonathan’s Way appears to be the one to beat. He looked very impressive in winning the G3 Iroquois Stakes back in September, but for whatever reason, didn’t fire in the BC Juvenile. There are occasions when Rosario leaves a lot to be desired relative to his riding skills.
Render Judgment is in the capable hands of Kenneth McPeek, and with Brian Hernandez Jr. in the saddle, I consider that a major plus. Look no further than year’s KD winner, Mystik Dan, to validate their impressive credentials.
That said, I’ll go with Render Judgment in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
Safe trips to all.
The Florida Sire in Reality Stakes is coming up in a few minutes (4:43 eastern time), which should answer the question, “is Rated by Merit more than just a sprinter”?
I believe he’ll carry his impressive speed in this two-turn race, and show he is indeed more than just a sprinter.
After going gate to wire in the In Reality Stakes, Rated by Merit proved he is indeed more than just a sprinter.
BTW, Rated by Merit opened at 50-1 in KD Futures Pool 2.
Fat chance he’ll be 50-1 at the close of betting on Sunday.
It was more like a public workout by the fast Rated by Merit in winning the In Reality Stakes.
He was never challenged logging easy fractional times 24.13 48.92 1:14.14 1:39.14 and final time of 1:45 71 … we will have to wait for him to tackle better fields to know more about his abilities to longer distance … I guess.
Patch Adams and Good Cheer were the most impressive 2-year-olds today at Churchill Downs.
The undefeated Good Cheer looked like the second comming of Rachel Alexandra after easily defeating a Grade 1 placing Quiteside …
Just for reference purposes, the My Dear Girl Stakes for the fillies was won in 1:49.30 … so, Rated by Merit was about 18 lenghts faster in the 1 1/6 miles Stakes for the best Florida 2-year-old breds.
Gulfstream track is playing very heavy today…
Hi Nelson
On Thursday, 11-28, I posted a comment regarding the Into Mischief colts that have shown promise early on. Patch Adams was on that list.
Patch Adams’ winning effort today, gives new meaning to the term “WOW”.
Rating off fast fractions of 22.51, 45.14, 1:08.60 he finished in 1:20.77 by 10 1/2 lengths. He ran the final furlong in 12:17, which is super-fast for that distance. Did you notice his final time was less than a second off of Groupie Doll’s track record of 1:20.44.
Patch Adams opened at 50-1 in KD Futures Pool 2. I wouldn’t be surprised if he closed at single digit odds at the close of betting on Sunday.
Yes Bill .. I remember your praises to Patch Adams and that is why I mentioned him after his breakthrough performance today.
Patch Adams is climbing to the top tier in Brad Cox’s barn… This crop looks to be one of the most gifted ones in recent years…
Nelson, Patch Adams was my selection to win today.
I like his pedigree and having no inbreeding through 5th generation.
CHC I think stands for Cina Horse Club.
As you probably know CHC, WinStar and Sienna Farm have collaborated before.
Though no auction history is shown, CHC and Sienna probably have racing rights or a percentage.
CHC as I recall makes the racing decisions.
Good selection Lynda, especially by the super dominant way he won…
Patch Adams should relish longer distances as his second dam is full sister to Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed… and Distorted Humor has become a broodmare sire of superior horses (Arrogate, Golden Sixty , Elate, Practical Joke, Thunder Cat(BRZ), Coltimus Prime, Dynamic Sky, etc)…
Patch Adams was actually Hip 001 at the Keeneland September Sale 2023. Denali Stud was the Consigner for WinStar Farm Bred and Raised.
For whatever reason, the colt was withdrawn from the sale.
Possibly RNA or could have been private sale?
WinStar still has some percentage of ownership.
I was curious about CHC and looked their website the other day.
They are HUGE!
Thank you Nelson.
Nelson, totally agree about Rated By Merit — although I’d love to see him tackle the Triple Crown bound colts in the Winter Gulfstream meet. Patch Adams really impressed, as did Good Cheer, who I believe is Cox’s second best filly. He should have a good new year if all stay healthy.
I see First Resort as the best value bet in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His 4th place in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes on turf is better than it looked on paper. First Resort is a gritty runner that will be deploying his great speed on dirt this time.
I will be playing him (#8) with 2-Jonathan’s Way, 3-Tiztastic, and 9-Render Judgement in a Trifecta Box…
Great call Nelson. You nailed the trifecta.
Render Judgment didn’t live up to my expectations.
Thanks Bill … I did played First Resort on top with the the other three (3) which yielded a nice payout for an $8-Trifecta…
Congratulations
You’re welcome, Nelson.
BTW, Burning Glory is another Into Mischief colt that’s entered in $120K maiden race at Churchill tomorrow, (12-1). On November 23rd, he worked 4 furlongs in 47.60, so you would think William Mott has BG cranked and ready to fire a winning effort. He’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line.
I think McPeek might win this one, too … 😉
Racing at Woodbine on the Tapeta continues to be plaqued by fatal breakdowns that started on November 09 for a total of 6 as of yesterday.
Racing was canceled on the 9th after two breakdowns and on the 10th.
The track has been thoroughly gone over and is said to be safe.
The Tapeta track at Woodbine is considered to be one of the safest in North America.
Two races are still showing for today (Saturday) on the Tapeta. The weather report for today is 33 degrees H, winds 20-30 MPH and 20% chance of snow showers.
Laurel Park had complaints on that track this past week for safety concerns after snow and rain on the 22nd. One horse suffered an injury during a training session but will be OK. Track officials say track is safe.
Winter has come earlier than usual for much of the Northeast, Middle Coastal States and the Deep South with snow and freezing temperatures.
I cannot help but think that weather conditions have an impact on track surfaces whether they are visible to the naked eye or not.
I can’t help but thinking that the Canadians are a little remiss in just now outlawing joint injections 14 days out …
Woodbine has initiated several steps in hopes of reducing injuries.
1. Any horse having received an intra-articular joint injection 14 days before a race will be restricted from entering a race.
2. An official veternarian is to be present and observe all morning training.
3. Before being removed from the Vet’s List and permitted to return to the work tab both the trainer and private veternarian must observe the horse at a jog 48 hours in advance and jointly certify the horse is fit and sound before being examined by the official veternarian.
4. Any horse that has raced within the previous 14 days is ineligible to race and will be scratched if already entered is the latest rule.
The new rules were instituted by AGCO after a cluster of injuries and breakdowns from October 28 and November 29.
Steve,
I held off posting about your column here until I had a chance to see their latest races on Youtube and I must says I really have no complaints on the 5 you chosen. I normally would not give Bill Mott much attention for a Derby horse (Sovereignty) as his record is abysmal but this horse intrigues me on 2 fronts. 1st, His pedigree is top notch along with the ownership. 2nd, his last race from last to first is right in Mott’s wheel house. If he continues using this race style with this horse he may have something here. Admiral Dennis last race at one mile was done nicely but it was done out of a “chute” we will need to see how he does around 2 turns.
Showcase shows some promise and his last was a very nice race but my only reservation is this is a Todd Pletcher trained horse for the Derby.
The 2 Mike McCarthy horses are stunners and was especially impressed with Bullard as his win in the Bob Hope was very impressive as he looked very business like and looks like he can run all day.
This weekend hopefully will give us another look at some possible 2025 Derby prospects from Churchill.
Always look forward to your weekly columns especially when it deals with the Derby.
Have a GREAT upcoming week.
Asmussen has worse Derby record than Mott.
Hello D/stretch,
How many serious KD contenders has Biil Mott sent to the starting gates? My records reveal not a lot.
His best shot was Country House who finished 2nd, 3rd & 4th in three KD preps after breaking his maiden. He went on to finish 2nd in the KD with only a MSW victory in the win column.
Country house finished ahead of BB’s 3 entrants that included the SA Derby winner & runner-up and the AK Derby runner up and post time favorite. His effort put him in place to be elevated to the top spot with the DQ of Maximum Security.
When a trainer can use a maiden only winner, to defeat graded stakes horses form the barn of the leading KD trainer, in the biggest dirt race for 3YO. Such a trainer shouldn’t be subjected dismissal
You answered your question in your first sentence. If you don’t like dismal then I will say it nothing to write home about. Like I said I usually don’t give Mott a lot of attention with a KD horse, but with that said he may have something with Sovereignty and only if he keeps with the same “Closer” running style.
On another thought… Steve I hope you had a Great Thanksgiving vacation and hope all is well !!!
He had Cigar,who had more talent than 90% of horses Bob ever trained.
Did Cigar run in the Kentucky Derby???
Did Zenyatta?
I will answer my own question on Cigar and that is. NO !!! or any of the Triple Crown races. Country House never ran another race after the Derby . And BB eventually took over the training of Maximum Security and won several races with him
Did Arrogate run in Derby???
Country House was injured, as you’re aware.
Barb, are you at the helm of this site? Seems you think so. Brought up Cigar in relation to your diss of Mott and Country House.
The Kentucky Derby is not the end-all-be-all of horse racing, dear.
Correct!
Congratulations to Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez, Lucky Sevens Stable on Rattle and Roll’s win the Clark!
The 5 year old returned after being out a year to recover from digital bone bruising.
His record is 23 starts, 9-2-3 and 2,141,641 in earnings.
He is by Connect (Curlin) out of Jazz Tune (Johannesburg).
Only inbreeding through first 5 generations is Mr Prospector.
A possible start in the Pegasus is next.
Is Donut God really the favorite in the KD Future Poll #2 at the end of Friday?
What has this God of a circular shaped cake with a hole in it, done to be so well supported?
He is followed by 2 of BB’s 5 betting interests.
East Avenue 4th choice
Sovereignty 6th choice
I will not be placing a wager in this pool as the horse that has delivered my ‘Wow Moment’ isn’t amongst the betting interest.
Hey ‘Facts—I had a big win wager, on City of Light in The Malibu, I think paid 7-1….love the other one on there, Filoso! You’re going to see him in the stretch!..
I have a feeling this guy could be a Derby horse…this guy wants distance and gets two turns tomorrow…8-1….
The KJC G2 (race 11 @CD) has a number of interesting competitors. But through it all, I like First Resort. Unlike Grayscale, this young gun ripped a 44 ⅘ in the Saratoga Special, finishing 2nd to Showcase. I think he’ll be forwardly placed and make a move on the 2nd turn to bring home the money in his 1st attempt at 2 turns.There are plenty of closers he’ll have to stave off in the drive to the wire, but he should remain resolute with tenacity to seal the deal.
If First Resort wins, he will flatter one of Steve’s five studs, Showcase.
That would be cool, but as a added bonus he could crack the top 10 on his own merit.
I like your thinking KMI on First Resort. We will see if he is the ” Real Deal”.
Churchill Downs has a full card for 2YOs tomorrow, so I’m recording the entire feed. I like Filoso and He’s Not Joking for the Kentucky Jockey Club, but the race that most interests me is Race 12, a MSW at 1 1/16th miles. Brad Cox has the likely favorite, first-time starter Magnum Force, but others of interest include Kalahari Dreams, American Promise, Limited Edition, and Game Day.
Hope everyone had a lovely Thanksgiving.
Exercise Associated Sudden Cardiac Death can happen in all breeds, all riding disciplines and in the breeding shed.
A few years ago a young female barrel racer was killed when her 8 year old Quarter Horse suffered EASCD while she was practicing the cloverleaf pattern.
A cross country eventing horse competing in the Olympics collapsed and died on the course.
3 year old Medina Spirit collapsed and died from EASCD after a 5 furlong workout on December 06, 2021.
Pulpit collapsed and died at age 18 in his paddock. His son, Lucky Pulpit (California Chrome’s sire) collapsed and died at age 16 after covering the first mare of the season.
A horse was scratched from the 2024 Melbourne Cup because he had cardiac arrhythmia.
The colt trained by Gai Waterhouse supposedly panicked and drowned in the swimming pool shortly after exercise.
Research around the world including the countries of Australia, England and the United States is on going to determine the cause(s) of EASCD, testing that can diagnose preexisting cardiac conditions that result in EASCD, possible genetic predisposition and other factors.
One of the most intensive studies to date has come from a case control study in Australia from 2007 to 2021 on racing and in training Thoroughbreds.
The results of the study on Thoroughbreds:
Muscle-skelatal injuries account for 75% of cases requiring euthanasia. The remaining 25% is the result of EASCD.
EASCD happens at a higher rate after exercise than during a race or competition usually within an hour for both.
Exercise intensity does not appear to be a factor.
EASCD appears to happen most often (53 to 60%) in Thoroughbreds with fewer lifetime starts.
Intact horses or stallions are at higher risk for EASCD than geldings. Mares are lowest risk group.
Cardiac arrhythmia is the leading cause of EASCD.
EIPH (exercise induced Pulmonary hemmorage or bleeding) episodes often preceded EASCD.
Frequency of EASCD is highest in 3 year old Thoroughbreds
(actual birth date, not January 01). EASCD and OFI (other fatal injuries) are highest in 3 to 4 year olds and starts to level off and decrease after age 4.
The survival rate of a EASCD episode is very minimal.
EASCD in Thoroughbreds is 200% more likely in Thoroughbreds than human athletes.
Gender, age, weight genetics and hormones increases the risk for EASCD.
The conclusion cannot be made at this time if ESCD is on the rise, at least not that I can find. It is possible that the required necropsy on all horses that die or are euthanized on the track in the United States will reveal a trend. Studies are underway in the United States for a genetic link and HISA is conducting a study on Thoroughbreds that collects information on heart rate, stride (variations), speed, distance and duration via a monitor for 4-6 months during exercise and training.
This post is largely a response to Counter Point’s post on November 29 at 3:47 AM about Medina Spirit and 7 unexplained deaths in Baffert’s barn.
The 7 horses that died in the Baffert barn at Hollywood Park happened over a time period from November 11 to March 2013. The only other common denominator was presence of Thyro-L that was administered to all of the horses in Baffert’s training stable.
There was an exhaustive investigation into the deaths which included full necropsies, tissue, blood and urine samples.
The 7th horse dropped dead while training.
Baffert discontinued use of Thyro-L after the 7th death.
The CHRB admitted this cluster of deaths was highly unusual and one person stated it was a less than one in a thousand probability.
The only medication found in Medina Spirit’s tests was Lasix which is still allowed during training.
Research is being conducted on a genetic link for EASCD in the United States and a tissue sample from Medina Spirit was requested.
I wish to make it perfectly clear the I am not placing blame on Mr Baffert for these 7 deaths, nor am I attempting to exonerate Mr Baffert and it has nothing to do with the ownership, Zedan Racing, of Medina Spirit.
If one makes an accusation(s) such as Counter Point did, that person in my opinion, should have facts to support their “theory”.
I would also like to add that there was no explanation for the cluster of over 20 horses suffering life ending fractures at Santa Anita a couple of years nor for the cluster of deaths during the Triple Crown race days in 2023. Two of the horses in Saffie Joseph’s training stable were determined to have EASCD which lead to the lifting of the suspension that CHD had imposed on Saffie.
Lynda, these are all great points. However, let’s not forget that BB has a history of administering drugs to his horses legal or otherwise. He was suspended ONE year for giving a horse cocaine.
You can not test for a substance if you don’t know what to look. Case in point Lance Armstrong, Mark McGuire, Tony Sosa, Barry Bonds….the list is too long.
The same applies to TB racing.
Great Post Lynda… Zany ,other trainers ( Laz Berrara, D Wayne Lukas and others were accused of giving there horses Cocaine at that time period) But what does that have have to do with today.? All trainers are under a microscope today and the bigger you are the harder they look. Who knows what old time trainers gave their horses to run and didn’t get caught either because there wasn’t a test for it or just plain ignorance.
As Lynda has pointed out EASCD happens in all sports with no explanation.
Baffert trains his hard but that is because he is trying to get the best out them. If you are horrified by them, then you don’t want to know how Lucien, Whittingham, Delp trained their Champions.
BTW Zany it was Sammy Sosa
Are you with BB when he trains his horses? Don’t assume what he does, or what you hear he does.
Unless you are his assistant, you’re better served being neutral. I hear bootlicking is a bad syndrome.
I go by posted workout just like about what everybody else here does . Now unless you are privy of some knowledge and information about him and his assistant trainers that the rest of us do not know about please explain yourself and give your sources otherwise ……..
You are FAKE NEWS !!!!
As far as Bootlicking I guess that explains why “your” tongue is BLACK and Brown !!!
Downthestretch, don’t even bother. I’ve read that word “bootlicking’ on another website by another person that may have come over here and infiltrated and infected this site using a couple of aliases that has already offended some here that offered the smallest, minute positive thing to say about Baffert yet was the target of this individual.
You know plenty about “that other website” since you occupy it daily.
Go away Baffert hating troll. You and your other aliases.
John, your right as their “hatred” of BB is so embedded in them that it would take nothing short of an exorcism to expel it. After every Baffert win it is like he did something sinister to get it. When you ask them to explain themselves and ask for sources all you get is trash talk and no substance. And then being accused of participating under different names on other sites. In my case I have only participated on 2 other sites. One being when Steve was part of Bloodhorse and the other the Paulick Report until he stopped allowing postings and in both cases it was always “Downthestretch”.
Like I said “Fake News” from the both of them!!!
The only infestation is from you and your aliases.
Barbara, why don’t you save the unhinged comments for the other site where you hang out 24/7?
‘
Barbara? Just John Goggin.
You really want to discuss aliases? You aren’t the straw that stirs the drink here.
You give Imbecile a bad name. Who is talking about workouts? The topic is…. your idol bending the rules. You really are clueless. You’re beyond hope.
Agreed!
You lose what little mind you have when anyone dares question your crush. Deal with the fact not everyone shares your opinion.
No Mike , Your the one that can’t deal with the facts !!!
It must have been pretty miserable for you watching that maiden race from CDI this past Wednesday when two trainers (BB and Lukas ) you despise run one – two. Yep you must have been pretty … CRUSHED !!!!
Lol get back to me come May. Many of his hyped ‘Derby’ horses wash out. Btw, horse who ran close 2nd hadn’t won a race. Oh, he doesn’t know you exist.
You need to chill out
There are over 70 types of EPO and current testing only searches for 3 of them…
Your insights are on point. Some live to ignore facts,especially regarding a certain trainer of two.
Thanks Lynda. I’ll refer to what trainer Kenny McPeek said after The New York Times’ Joe Drape and others that hate horse racing and had that hit piece on FX months ago that basically focused on Baffert…”Why can’t these people (haters) thank us for saving these horses?”
You’re still posting?
Nice informative read, thank you.
The thyroid meds were a response to the effect that cobalt-loading had on horses. Asmussen also said he gave that medicine to his entire barn, like Baffert. Therefore, both of them admitted to trying to enhance red blood cell production in all of their horses which was the effect of cobalt-loading and which Australia had outlawed and had enforced a lifetime ban on two of their trainers who were caught doing it …Wish we would have dome the same.
Great info, thanks!
A constitution filly just wired the field at GP at 52/1.
He is one fine sire!
One of my favs.
Just in…Barnes received an 87 Beyer and a 88 Brisnet for his win. He also dropped to 8-1 in the pool #2 in future wagering on the KD.
At William Hill, Barnes opened at 33-1, was 25-1 just prior to recent race, now 18-1…
John thanks for the post. Interesting that a horse a 2 year old making his first start and winning and only 4/5 off the track record only gets a 87 beyer figure…. thank God my handicapping doesn’t live and die by Beyer figs.
What handicapping?
Any-Baffert-horse handicapping, apparently …. lol
Lol
LOL! Not exactly setting the world on fire, I’d say.
Bold Ruler/Somethingroyal – Secretariat (21 starts; 16 wins; Earnings $1.3m
Northern Dancer/Somethingroyal – Somethingfabulous (20 starts; 4-wins; Earnings- $54k
Somethingroyal was bred to two extremely influential stallions and her Norther Dancer foal didn’t remotely compare to that her Bold Ruler. But then there is only one Secretariat.
Why highlight the above?
City of lights is emerging as a serous sire. His dam Paris Motion was out of a Somethingfabulous mare. COL possesses some amount of Secretariat’s lineage.
I am of the opinion City of Lights deserve serious consideration in the stallion pool
Optical, is a City of Lights colt that caught my interest since his maiden win at Churchill on September 24th. He went a mile in 1:35.65, drawing off by 14 lengths.
He was eased in the G1 Clairborne Futurity and was subsequently pulled up.
On November 24th, he won a Starter Allowance race, going a mile in 1:35.66 by a head.
His dam side reflects an abundance of stamina influence, so you would think Optical should have no problem stretching out beyond a mile.
BTW, his sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer. A successful mating cross that you have mentioned from time to time.
Keep an eye on Optical moving forward.
I have seen the post-race photos of BB and his entourage at CD. Everybody seemed happy as mission seemed to have been accomplished.
I couldn’t help but reflect on Medina Spirit the horse at the center of decision to ban BB from submitting entries to CD operated tracks for 3 years. The horse dropped dead sometime after the KD.
The horse not only had his KD win voided but also suffered a shocking and untimely passing. With horses being the collateral damage of Powerful High Conditioning Operations, Medina Spirit is understandably forgotten.
Several years ago, 7 horses under BB’s keep and care dropped dead in a very short window. He was not sanctioned after a major pattern and practices investigation. Those 7 horses were forgotten as quickly as Medina Spirit.
When I see the interest and media coverage of the return to CD the home of the KD, of a trainer with such dark side. I am left to ask the following.
Why have so many lost their moral compas?
NB: There should never be acceptance where there should be disgust.
Thanks, Counter!
Counterpoint and Mike Revla your points are getting old. Your hatred is not needed here !!! Go somewhere else!!!
And BTW Medina Spirit has not been forgotten!!!
Didn’t realize we have a new sheriff in town. Perhaps, you should look in the mirror first and ask yourself some questions….Pius one.
I did look in the mirror and I like what I see… What is your excuse?
It’s obvious you didn’t see hypocrisy staring back at you.
Like a true narcissist and your hero,also.
So Down you’re controlling this site now? Stay in your lane. I’m not going anywhere.
I will never forget Medina Spirit. I hope that how hard he tried, his life, and his death are things Bob Baffert will never forget, either.
Every horse I have ever worked with taught me something. When you stop listening to them and learning from them, that’s when you need to reassess what you’re doing – or see yourself out. Most people don’t have the self awareness to do either.
Medina Spirit will never be forgotten.
The horse has no say in the matter as to his trainer, owner or jockey is. The horse also has no say in the treatments, injections, meds both legal other illegal that he or she is given.
Medina Spirit will never be forgotten and that memory should not be tarnished by the actions and behaviors of his or her connections. Really should not even be brought up in the same context in my opinion.
He was just a horse, like any other horse:
A horse gallops with his lungs, perseveres with his heart, and wins with his character.
And that is what Medina Spirit did.
Well said, Lynda (both posts).
I was present when Medina Spirit won the Awesome Again by 8 lengths—over older horses—he got a standing ovation before and after the race, I have not seen that since, and rarely saw that before—-Medina Spirit was much loved by the patrons.
Well put, Lynda. You eloquently said what I feel about all horses that have left their mark and live in our memories. I especially feel this way about Maximum Security. I will never forget him and he will always be a Derby winner to me despite what the inept Churchill stewards did for the first and only time in Derby history.
p.s. I enjoy all your posts. I learn a lot by reading you. Thank you for your valuable contributions to this site.
He deserved better handling, for sure!
Not only did he drop dead, but the necropsy revealed that he was pushed to run with some serious physical ailments.
Seems like some folks have never HAD a moral compass..
Not in that barn.
Barnes, the racehorse, can be viewed on YouTube at the Fasig-Tipton 2023 Saratoga Yearling Sale. Hip #228.
Search for ‘Into Mischief colt sells for $3,200,000 at the Saratoga Sale (2023).
You can follow the points that Lynda has mentioned below while he is being presented. Moreover, note the calmness of the mind – never turns a hair. Obviously, has the same temperament as American Pharoah.
Or on the same tranquilizers …
Top sire, Into Mischief, has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021) by default. Could the winner of the 2025 KD be sired by Into Mischief?
The following Into Mischief colts have shown promise early on.
Citizen Bull
Barnes
Sovereignty
Praetor
Donut God
Patch Adams
Into Midnight
Burning Glory
On Sunday, 12-1, Burning Glory will try to break his maiden, at Churchill (R8).
On Saturday, 11-30, Patch Adams will attempt to break his maiden on his 2nd start.
Bottom line, it would come as no surprise if an Into Mischief colt won the 2025 Derby.
Usually when there is a large progeny contingent on the KD Trail for a particular stallion. The KD winner never emerges from that contingent.
To use one of your recent quotes, “never say never”.
Touche’ Counter Point.
How appropriate! Rebuttal with my own words
I should have used the word unlikely.
It is funny Bill how I was just wondering which sire to play in sire KD future wager… I was leaning towards Gun Runner as he got the momentum but I must acknowledge that Into Mischief got better line-up in terms of quantity of winners, powerful connections and overall speed figures. After all, Citizen Bull is the winter favorite and Sovereignty looks like the best Godolphin Derby prospect since Essential Quality.
The best of Gun Runner sons is Bullard who will be the biggest hurdle for Baffert’s army if he takes the path to the Santa Anita Derby. If Bullard ends up being the best of the West he will likely be one of the favorites for the Triple Crown series… the other Gun Runners worth mentioning are Guns Loaded and Whiskey Shot. Guns Loaded broke his maided at Churchill in very fast time for the 6 furlongs and seems to be apt for longer distances as a maternal grandson of Bernardini. Guns Loaded
Whiskey Shot is improving gradually under the trainer Rodolphe Brisset who was the one who built the foundations of Justify. Whiskey Shot was a very solid maiden winner at 1 1/6-mile going wide the whole race and logging 1:43 4/5 the very same time of Sovereignty in winning the Street Sense. The split times for Whiskey Shot race were faster than those of the Street Sense Stakes…
The last three years in the pools two (2) the listed sires missed the mark (Keen Ice, Good Magic and Goldencets) but this time the 39 sires listed have a good chance to produce the Derby winner…
And the (win and exacta) pools two (2) for the last 8 years have featured only two Derby winners (Authentic and Mistyk Dan at 80/1). Always Dreaming, Justify, Country House, Mandaloun/Medina Spirit, Rich Strike, and Mage did not figure in pools 2… so, the odds of 4/5 for the number 40 for “all other 3-year-old males” seems to be dead-on.
Anyway, good luck to you Bill if you decide to play the pool 2 ending this Sunday.
Thanks Nelson, I think I’ll pass on Pool 2.
Good luck to you as well.
That is an interesting angle Bill, the sire. Tks
You’re welcome, Lynda.
Best of luck to moving forward.
Edit,
Best of luck to you moving forward.
David, Blood Horse has an article up on Pulpit – it makes for great reading
What a brilliant horse he was – his 4th in the Derby on an injured leg was incredible.
I think Tapit’s enormous success as a sire as kind of made his own sire rather forgotten, but Pulpit deserves to be remembered in his own right
Thanks Betsy, The Blood-Horse website is my first page e dry morning. Ha ha After listening to the BBC World Service News in bed.
No Pulpit, no Tapit.
Exactly !
I should start fanning harder for Constitution – his success will keep Pulpit’s line alive
Tacitus, Proxy, Flightline, Greatest Honour, and Essential Quality are so sons of Tapit that could be as influential as Constitution. Then you have Tapit Trice, Charge It coming later.
The progeny of Independence Hall impressed at the sales, racing types, so there is plenty to come.
I’m not as high on some of those, but they don’t have to be as good as Constitution to be successful, so you’re right – there’s plenty to come in the pipeline!
I, too love Constitution! He and McKinzie have me excited…
Betsy, Tiz the Law looks extremely promising as well and on turf as well as dirt. Hopefully, Coolmore will chance their hand with a couple of their topline turf broodmares.
Mind you, Coolmore have so many future sire prospects that Tiz the Law won’t get the chance anyway.
Talented horse in a very good barn during his racing career.
Yes he does, David!
I don’t think I can actively root for him until I give up on HAP, lol
Betsy, following just the progeny of 1 sire is a little precarious. Ha ha
Frosted!!
Frosted is doing quite well in Australia. Hopefully, Maymum can rattle of some Grade 1s to give Frosted the boost he needs.
Forgot Frosted
Bill,
I just revisited your top 12 list posted 20th November. I wanted to see if the interestingly named Sonic Skidaddle was amongst the 12. But unfortunately, he was not.
He might just be a better colt than Render Judgement and others on your list. if the pace is strong in the KJC he is likely blow by all late.
If you haven’t already made a ruling on him. Check him out and let know your impression and whether he paddles.
Hey Counter Point
Sonic Skidaddle and Render Judgment certainly fit the description of “closers” as their respective late pace figures indicate. Both colts have a ton of stamina influence reflected in their pedigrees, so routing shouldn’t be an issue for either one.
Both colts will be tested for class in the KJC , which should reveal just where they are at, relative to others in the field.
Another colt to keep an eye in the KJC field is Clock Tower who has shown excellent speed on turf. Can he replicate that speed over the Churchill dirt track? We’ll see.
I remain convinced that Jonathan’s Way is the horse to beat, but I like Render Judgment’s chances to hit the wire first.
Saw photo of Barnes last evening.
He is the typical colt that Mr Baffert likes. Tall and fast.
The colt has as massive a hip that I have ever seen on a 2 year old. It was the first thing I saw when I looked at the photo. Reminded me of both Arrogate and Justify or an American Quarter Horse or a Haflinger if you are familiar with that breed. Appears he has good bone and straight legs. Very upright on his pasterns, shorter and not as sloping as we see so often today. I could not get a good view of the entire shoulder because of the saddle cloth. Garcia was sitting forward and therefore I could not see the colt’s withers.
His croup is up above his withers by about 4 inches which indicates a growth spurt.
At the moment appears to have a longer back and his shoulder and forehand are not as developed as the hind quarters. This gives the appearance of being out of balance (the three concentric circles).
In other words Barnes has some maturing to do, mentally, physically. I am not sure but I think his gallop out was strong.
Mr Baffert said in an interview that Barnes like the track at CHD and alluded to bringing more of his trainees to run at CHD before the Derby.
Most of the CHD executives were in attendance. Bob and Jill were dressed very casually. It was all low key and a “bury the hatchet moment”.
On some other sites there are comments that Garcia was to blame for getting the colt into the tight spots. Guess that different people have different interpretations. These are young horses and it takes time for them to develop in my opinion.
My feeling is that Baffert brought Barnes in for this race so there would not be a lot of media attention on Derby Day.
I for one am glad that this chapter is closed and that everyone can move on.
Lynda, he lives for media attention.
Any opinion on Sonic Skidaddle?
SS, yes has my interest. Happy Thanksgiving, Counter!
Mike, it’s the quality of his colts that his owners buy that attracts attention, in which it brings attention to him.
Nice spin as usual!
Mike try this … how many trainers say ‘ I go where the horse takes me’, they are giving credit to the horse for their ability, which in turn gives the trainer credibility of their expertise.
Try this…how many blue blood horses flop? Plenty!
Yeah I agree plenty will flop, cause there isn’t enough high level races available to make everyone a winner.
Serious cop out. Some are mismanaged, others simply don’t have the necessary talent,etc. Have news for you,a good horse can come from anywhere.
Mike
Other Baffert high $$$ flops …. Real Quiet a whopping $17,000 and Medina Spirit an off the charts purchase of $35,000. And lest we forget Silver Charm the way over priced at $85,000
No problem Michelle.
I will stop posting on this site period if that makes you happy.
Lynda we love you Michelle is simply someone to ignore on thanksgiving day we want to thank you for all the blessings your keen insight has Steve perhaps time to block Michelle no need for personal attacks on secretariat.com let and Lynda king is an amazing contributor
Excuse me! Why does Michelle draw a block? On a certain site,for years,an individual does nothing other than cause chaos,making personal threats while under the ruse of using at least fifty different names. Individual goes nuts if anyone so much as questions anything about Bob
Please remain here! I like your descriptions, of the physical attributes of the horses! To some—if you like a horse they read into it that you LOVE their trainer—I…and most on here can understand what you are attempting to say….
Swiss Skydiver. Purchased for 35k.
Seriously? She’s not going anywhere.
Excellent summary on Barnes, Lynda. I for one always read your comments with interest and have great respect for your thoughts and observations.
I second that, Ms Blacktype. I’ve learned a lot from Lynda’s posts and always appreciate them.
So many ardent fans for Lynda!
Amazing.
Hi Lynda
Thank you for providing an excellent post on Barnes’ physical attributes. I always look forward to your comments, as I consider you one of the most knowledgeable contributors on this site.
Please ignore the post that said, “you go on and on”, and your “lengthy comments”.
I would venture to say that you have forgotten more than she’ll ever know about the sport of horse racing.
Have a great Thanksgiving, Lynda.
Wash, rinse,repeat!
You aren’t exactly wrong.
Beautiful, well bred horse. However, have a feeling Zedan paid about $3 million more than necessary. Seven figure auction price does not always translate to success on the track.
Let’s hope he stays healthy.
Dear Lynda King,
Thanks for the comprehensive assessment of Barnes’ physique.
In my mind your description is a clear framework to evaluate the conformation of race horses.
You are a caring owner of horses and knowledgeable horse woman… I really respect and admire that and enjoy learning from your well-thought posts here.
Please, keep contributing to the good vibe and the substance in this forum…. I appreciate your time and energy invested in sharing your experience and knowledge with us here… you share because you care!
Happy Thanksgiving!
Dear friends, thank you for your support.
Those who know me know that I love this sport and these horse as much as anyone.
It has been my custom for years to analyze Thoroughbreds from multiple angles and have a checklist that includes conformation, pedigree, race record to date, Equibase, jockey assignment, trainer, ownership, running style and watching race replays and speed figures). I do this not only for Kentucky Derby contenders but all major races both dirt and turf and horses that race in foreign countries.
My knowledge about Thoroughbred horse racing has increased in volumes since following Steve about 14 years. I have also learned from many of you.
I have been a horse owner since my childhood and have experienced many of the illnesses, tragedies and situations facing the Thoroughbred race horses. Over the years I have ridden in multiple disciplines from dressage to gymkhana to rustic mountain camping and horseback riding.
And sadly, I have held the head of a dying horse in my lap more than once. I know all to well the hurt, the anquish, the tears and the broken heart from having to say good-bye.
In addition to this group, I have friends who own and or breed racehorses, belong to several horse racing groups and have friends from around the world on X and FB.
Horses are my passion. I came into this world loving them and I will leave this world loving them. Most know the story I have told that I first started following horse racing in the newspapers when I was a very little girl. Every Sunday morning my Dad would pull out the sports section of the newspaper and give it to me.
Yes, I am well aware that my posts are lengthy and it is something I work on believe it or not!
Again, thank you all!
Thank you, Lynda for sharing ypur valuable insights: I have learned a lot from your posts and am looking forward to learning a lot more in the future!
No need to reduce the length of your posts either!
The perspective of a fellow HORSEWOMAN is always appreciated, Lynda. Sending my love!
You are SO welcome, Lyda!
BCJ/BCJ Turf participants who were next out winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes:
2024 – Jonathan’s Way ???
2020 – Keepmeinmind – 3rd BCJ
2015 – Airforce – 2nd BCJ Turf
2005 – Private Vow – 14th in BCJ (NB: Jockey experienced broken rien on back stretch)
2001 – Repent- 2nd BCJ
2000- Dollar Bill – 10th BCJ
1999 – Captain Steve – 11th BCJ
1991 – Dance Floor -6th BCJ
1989 – Grand Canyon – 2nd BCJ
Jonnathan’s Way is in good company as several BCJ off the board finishers have returned to win the KJCS. However, no many have faced this level of competition.
My handicapping of the race has the ML favorite as finishing off the board. But as usual I could be totally wrong.
Grand Canyon ran there’s two year old race I ever saw….1989 Hollywood Futurity 1:33 flat….
On Board Diagnostic report for CyberTruck Barnes
Motor is good.
Transmission not too smooth.
AI system needs tweaking.
Suspension erratic.
Steering is kinky.
Drag racing not recommended.
That’s really funny.
Hilarious KMI!
Someone video’d/posted Barnes being saddled by Bob with three handlers, and Barnes letting out some loud whinnies….
High Tech-Concoction can cause strange sounds being uttered.
Bravo!
Really? on his 1st visit back after being suspended for 3 years? Come on ….. stop it
he can’t even pass wind without suspicion …
Please give me a break! The BB adoration is far past expiration date!
it’s not about adoration with me Mike. I look at a person’s whole career, and his has been stellar to say the least.
And shouldn’t …. he has EARNED his nefarious reputation!
There is a reason why Bob’s barn always uses a lip chain: the horses are terrified.
Exactly!
Here’s my take on Barnes today….obviously green, bottled in, drifted wide, make up about 4-5 lengths in the stretch and still won over a game Innovator with those two horses about 8 lengths in front of the rest of the field. Final time was about 4/5’s off a second off the track record (1.02.17)
I’ll take the glass half filled here….alot of trouble and close to the track record.
PS-was glad to see Bill Carstanjen, Bobbie B, Bobbie B’s wife and D. Wayne Lukas all there in the paddock.
Apparently, Bill and Bobbie each had read Lucky Luciano’s best seller “Fighting Amongst Ourselves Is Bad For Business”.
They must have, John! Looked like old home week, and that horse of Wayne’s is pretty good even if he didn’t cost $3 million. Both horses obviously have speed; it will be interesting to see them stretch out.
John,
I would call that race ” Scary Ugly ” for Barnes …. with Scary being the incident in the back stretch and the turn into the stretch. Ugly being his stretch run. But you know the old saying.. a win is a win no matter how you do it!!!
I will say one thing about Barnes he is massive!!!
Lol
Seems like Barnes will need a ton of education to be more professional in his next races. He was as green as the green grass of home…
Barnes won his debut despite being in tight spots the first 4 furlongs and wandering in the home stretch always on the wrong lead. Martin Garcia had to deploy all his strength to win by a short nose. over Innovator who looked like a quarter horse out there..
Awful Barnes mechanics but still won logging a very respectable 1:02.97 for the 5 1/2 furlongs.
Thanks for the information, Nelson. It still mystifies me why they would send Barnes to Churchill Downs for his initial race. There seemed way more negatives than positives.
Well … seemed to me it was more like a symbolic move … Baffert and family was there looking happy to be back on the stage of his most memorable moments…
The only pluses I see is that Barnes (the horse) shipped well and he defeated the super fast Innovator who did well in the (5th) Hopeful considering his troublesome trip there.
Not very excited about the 3.2-million dollar horse though… the most expensive colt of his class but not as convincing at this point… let’s see how he evolves as a 3-year-old against the abundant big shots to spare.
Yes Nelson, that was my take as well, pure symbolism. From your observation it’ll be an uphill battle to get Barnes into the Kentucky Derby. Wait and see.
Not in your top ten yet, I presume. Ha ha
On a sad note, there was dreadful news here today. Gai Waterhouse’s 2 year old colt King Kirk, the early favorite for the Golden Slipper, drowned after taking fright while swimming in the Randwick racecourse horse pool. I can’t imagine how distressing that must have been. Just terrible.
Happier news was that James McDonald (J Mac) was named the Longines World’s Best Jockey for 2024. That’s the second time the Australian based New Zealand born jockey has won the award.
Oh … sad news the death of King Kirk…it is the first time I heard that such a freak accident could happen in the horse pools… some horses get scared getting there but never heard they would drown in the fear…
Thanks for the update on the champion Jockey of 2024…
I remember you praising the exploits of McDonald in Australia and New Zeland…
Nelson, I have never heard of a horse drowning in a swimming pool either.
My interpretation of the article I read this was not his first time in one.
I almost wonder if something else caused the panic, like a cardiac event?
I am always sad to hear about the lossof any horse, but especially the young ones.
Thanks for the information Lynda.
I have not read the article but I am quite sure there will be some lessons they will capture to avoid that happening again… of course, assuming it was not a cardiac arrest there was some kind of psychological mishap involved in that tragedy.
Nelson, James McDonald is one of those gifted jockeys that you are quite spellbound watching what/how he is going to do something in a race.
Moreover, he has that ‘star quality’ mesmerising charisma that some movie stars have as well. Like Frankie Dettori had/has particularly in the 1990s.
David’s and Nelson got to disagree with your opinions on Barnes. Remember this is a two year old and his first start and he run the race and wins and only 4/5 of a second off the track record . I was pretty impressed.
David’s. Sorry about King’s Kirk.
Let’s go ahead and reward him the likely Derby winner.
Downthestretch, Nelson will no doubt write a response but for me I was just thinking that it was more a symbolic gesture than indicating the future possibilities of Barnes by Bob Baffert.
As you would know, Bob Baffert doesn’t usually send unraced two year olds to commence their careers at Churchill Downs. I thought it was really tough on Barnes and good luck to him for winning.
It is OK to be impressed by Barnes. In my particular perspective I am not as impressed with Barnes as I was over the debuts the last Baffert newcomers, Romanesque and Madaket Road.
As I said, debuting after shipping and winning despite his flawed dynamics is a big merit … however, I can not become his fan until he “gets his act together”… specially knowing that there are other more serious runners at this point…
In my case, the reserve of hypes has a limit …lol
True his trip was not the smoothest but it is the time that is impressive ( along with Innovator) but only time will tell whether he can go long.
My biggest concern is he comes out of race OK. The way he took the turn in the stretch was awkward. Let’s hope he wakes up tomorrow bouncing and kicking.
Yes DTS … that was precisely my hidden concern… he was so erratic in the stretch that might be a sign of something feeling amiss in him…
As for the time, it is really outstanding as Innovator is bound to be a Stakes winner and they left the third finisher 10 lengths behind. Barnes would have broken the track record had he run freely and squarely.
However I believe the track was playing very fast today at Churchill…
Anyway, as you said, let’s hope the multi-million horse is OK and we can see him proving his mettle against the best next year…
Nelson, I am in agreement with you. Wait and see how he develops going forward. He has, in my opinion, a lot of potential but the pieces have to come together to win the Derby. Right now he is a diamond in the rough that will need a lot of polishing to shine.
Yeah,especially Zenyatta selling for 60k, who turned out to be a genuine super horse!
All we’re going to hear about is how impressive he was – but he was 1-5 and barely beat a horse who was 0-4
Of course! He’s going to win TC! Lol
Huh ??? Who you talking about?
Oh, talking about Barnes. Same ole movie every year.
Not you Mike…. Betsy…. 1-5. Beating a horse who was 0-4
Barnes…why are you surprised? He was 1-5, and he did barely beat a horse who was 0-5.
His price tag is why people will be impressed…that & his trainer
He didn’t beat a world beater. Fact
Huh??
Barnes barely caught a 5 race maiden, dear. No need to crown Barnes king just yet …
Agreed!
Bob said they were at Jill’s parents, in Tennessee so why not bring him out….
Whether you love or loathe Bob Baffert he often has the ability to come out with an amusing remark now and then.
So, that’s his saving grace?
Someone tell Medina Spirit …
Mr Baffert was so smitten by Barnes that he refused to leave the sale without him.
Translation: he again got his uber-wealthy owners to shell out more than the horse is worth. It’s part of the game and why the sales people love Bob – he makes more money for everyone there!
Exactly what that is.
Boom!
Well they had an auction….there were several bidders….the bidding kept going up, and up….the gavel came down at $3.2 million….so….THAT’S h8s worth, on THAT day—-so—what is he worth TODAY? If….he were put up for auction today—what does Michelle think he would sell for?…You say he’s over priced? Then WHAT do YOU THINK he would sell for TODAY? Whatever that price is what he is worth….
Here we go!
Pssssst! The auction is sometimes padded with someone who will drive up the bidding. Like in poker, the aim is to get more money from the “fish”.
He ain’t worth the price.
Regarding KD Futures Pool #2, set to open on Thanksgiving Day, there’s one colt that’s really got my attention at 50-1, Rated by Merit. By Battalion Runner, out of a Speightstown mare, he’s undefeated (3 for 3) at Gulfstream Park. Rated by Merit is a St. Elias Stables homebred that has shown excellent speed in two Stallion Series races, the most recent going 7 furlongs in 1:22.55. His pedigree reflects stamina influence on the bottom. His 3rd dam, Runup the Colors, won the G1 Alabama, the Delaware Oaks and was 2nd in the G1 Ballerina and G1 Spinster.
Based on his undefeated record, I’m somewhat surprised he hasn’t got more notice on this blog. If anyone is planning on playing a few dollars in KD Futures Pool 2, Rated by Merit a horse to consider, IMO.
BTW, Rated by Merit is entered in another Florida Stallion Series race on Saturday, 11-30, at GP (R10). It’s not surprising his listed at 3/5 on the morning line.
I’ve been around for so long….you as well, Bill—many of those Florida Stalion Series horses have peeked my interest, and they all did not amount to serious Derby contenders, I keep thinking “one of these days”….as of right now my top three are Journalism, Sovereignity, Gaming….and–like you Bill—I love the Derby Trail….
Has St Elias Stables cut ties with TP? Or did TP not like this colt?
Nice colt whose stride mechanics suggest he is not a router.
That remains to be seen. His upcoming race on Saturday is at 1 1/16 miles, so this will be his first test routing. Based on his winning margins in three sprint races, I would think routing is within his scope. We’ll see.
I agree. However, routing against the overmatched isn’t the same as routing against top class routers.
His wins were by wide margins and that cannot be ignored.
How many of those that he destroyed came back to win or win impressively?
I like his trainer and hope the colt is as good as advertised. He will likely get more support from St Elias and probably others that have become tired of the abbreviated racing career horses under TP’s keep and care.
Bob….is getting “the return” over with, had he waited till Derby Week it would have been a huge distraction….
CDI might have insisted … everyone actually in the game are quite weary of his grandstanding ways. Especially when he blamed them when he got caught..
Steve, that is a very strong “5 Card Studs” hand. I’ll call your Sovereignty and raise you a Journalism.
Happy Thanksgiving!
I bet on two horses in the 2024 Classic—Sierra Leone, the winner….and Arthur’s Ride, and very early on I knew Arthur’s was toast—a race that I THOUGHT was without much early speed—turned put to be a freeway! Goes to show…..a full field of top level horses will almost always have pace! Sierra was in front before they straightened out ….
No, he was not. He had to work to catch a valiant Fierceness in deep stretch
Nope..
Yep
I’m very disappointed that Caribbean Dream scratched out of today’s 7th race at Churchill. Now, it should be clear sailing for Barnes, the $3.2 million dollar colt, to show what he is made of.
Colonel Caliente worked at bullet 4 furlongs in 47.20 on 11-5 could land somewhere in the superfecta. D’oro Boy has an impressive pedigree and could figure in the super as well. From my perspective, Innovator will be Barnes’ main competition, based mainly on his five-race foundation and his impressive pedigree. It’s interesting to note that D. Wayne Lucas (Bob Baffert’s mentor) is Innovator’s trainer.
That said, I’ll key Barnes on top, with D’oro Boy, Colonel Caliente and Innovator underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots, in a $10.00 Superfecta P/W. Cost, $60.00.
That is: 3/ 1,2,6/ 1,2,6/ 1,2,6
Just for the hell of it, I’ll play a $1.00 Super Hi-5 ($24.00), keying Barnes on top, with DB, CC, Innovator and Sinister Smile (worked 4 furlongs in 46.60, on Oct. 31st).
That is: 3/ 1,2,6,8/ 1,2,6,8/ 1,2,6,8/ 1,2,6,8.
The race goes off at 3:55 eastern time.
Safe trips to all, and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.
Well … Bill You were right in shooting for the Super Hi-5 … 1,109 for a dollar was very. You had the $170 Super but looks like you only missed the fifth place of the 10-Counter Elite… we tend to overlook the deep exotics whenever there is lock to win but sometimes they pay rather well…
Actually. something unexpected came up here at home that needed my attention, so I was unable to make it to the casino to get those bets down.
I did watch the race, and has you mentioned, Barnes looked very green throughout the race.
BTW, do have any thoughts on Rated by Merit, scheduled to run on Saturday, at GP in another Florida Stallion Series race. He’s undefeated in three career starts, two of which were Florida Stallion Series races. He’s listed at 50-1 in KD Pool 2, but likely will drop if he wins on Saturday.
Your thoughts on Rated by Merit would be appreciated.
Thanks.
Rated by Merit is the most exciting Floridian since Big Drama and Jackson Bend. He will be more palatable for the bettors after his impending easy win in the In Reality for sure. The time and ways of winning in the 1 1/6-mile contest will tell a lot about how equiped he is for longer distances… exciting horse to follow indeed!
I feel like the son of Battalion Runner will be performing equally or better than Jackson Bend did. I always respect an undefeated Stakes horse…
I see Rated by Merit doing well against open company in the Florida road to the Derby as he looks like more than a pure sprinter to me. When you see stamina-ladden sires in a pedigree like Unbridled, Tapit, Deputy Minister, Dixieland Band and A.P. Indy, and hailing from family 1-X you should expect a serious runner at least up to the 9 furlongs… who knows… he could turn to be an Affirmed type despite history labeling Florida breds as outstanding sprinters at best…
Hey Nelson
I appreciate your thoughts on Rated by Merit and agree his upcoming race on Saturday will be a good test routing.
Hey Steve, your five card stud hand of promising 2 yos is definitely worth playing.
I especially like Admiral Dennis and Sovereignty and I hope that they remain healthy for the arduous campaign that lies ahead.
As for this weekend, I don’t really like anything in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but I’ll be paying close attention. The full card of 2 yo races always fascinates me as I try to dig up possible candidates for the Derby and Oaks.
Tomorrow is Thanksgiving and despite my infirmities, I have received many blessings in my life to be thankful for. One of those blessings is you, Steve. Your brilliant columns have enlightened and entertained me for several years now, reinforcing my love of the great sport of horseracing. Through your writing, you have attracted a wonderful supporting cast of racing enthusiasts who share their input on pedigree, wagering strategies and personal racing memories. You and your commenters have given me much to be thankful for.
To you, Steve, your family and the wonderful group of Secretariat contributors, a Happy and Blessed Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving Dewey!
Thank you, Lynda. I hope that you can find some bright spots to be thankful for after all you’ve been through. God bless you and your family.
Very thankful for all my blessings!
Thank you Dewey for being thoughtful and caring.
Just out the door Dewey but had to respond to thank you so much for your beautiful words. They mean so much to me. Have a very Happy Thanksgiving
Thank you, Steve. Safe trip!
Happy Thanksgiving Dewey … God bless and your family!
Happy Thanksgiving, Dewey. Did you catch the Japan Cup?
Hey Davids, I attempted to respond to you two days ago, but, it is awaiting moderation?
I did watch the Japan Cup. It was an exciting finish with Do Duece under confident handling, coming from the back of the pack to mow them down at the finish. Shin Emperor looked good attending the pace then shifting into another gear to narrowly miss the prize. I love his stride which is highlighted by his white socks, ha, ha! He will be fun to watch in 2025 and, hopefully, we’ll see him make another attempt to win the Arc de Triomphe.
Now, I must attempt to handicap the 2 yo card at Churchill today. It’s a challenge to figure out these babies as there is very little racing experience to consider. Yet, we do have the breeding, connections, workouts and paddock appearance to work with. I look forward to this day every year. Will we see a Derby prospect among this group? You never know.
Hi Dewey, yes often Siyouni’s offspring inherit that lightning turn of foot and beautiful stride. It was disappointing for the racing fans they were denied not seeing St Mark’s Basilica and Paddington race at age four but that’s Coolmore. If they are superstars at 3 years they are off to stud at the end of the year.
The Siyouni- Galileo cross is the old fashioned remedy of a speed sire with a stamina induced broodmare. With Siyouni and Galileo they are par excellence for both.
If the St Mark’s Basilica progeny are as good as they look, racing as 2 year olds next year, life will be exciting in the European racing world. They are so highly anticipated.
KJC G2 PP/ODDS
1- He’s Not Joking 12/1
2- Jonathan’s Way 2/1
3- Tiztastic 5/1
4- Dapper Moon 8/1
5- Filoso 10/1
6- Clock Tower 8/1
7- Soni Skidaddle 12/1
8- First Resort 10/1
9- Render Judgment 9/2
10- Redacted 20/1
oops! sorry, wrong info given earlier. This one is correct
He’s Not Joking 8/1
Jonathan’s Way 5/2
Tiztastic 5/1
Dapper Moon 8/1
Filoso 8/1
Clock Tower 10/1
Sonic Skidaddle 6/1
First Resort 9/2
Render Judgment 12/1
Redacted 30/1
Did you have something redacted in your initial post?
Steve, as mentioned a few columns back Admiral Dennis is the colt that intrigue/hope for next year’s road to the Kentucky Derby. As you have written above Admiral Dennis provided glimpses of what is required to win the most difficult of races. Admiral Dennis
was nominated for the Kentucky Jockey Club but perhaps wisely is giving the race a miss.
Bullard comes from the indomitable Best in Show family and Sovereignty traces back to the dazzling Lakeway so 10f should be fine for both. Showcase sounds doubtful so if they’re not bullish now what expectations will there be next year? Journalism may be but did his last race just fall in his lap?
The Kentucky Jockey Club on Saturday gives Tiztastic and Dapper Moon an opportunity to shine with the absence of Sovereignty, both appeared quite immature physically when compared to the winner in the Pulpit Stakes.
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here and thanks again Steve for another fascinating column.
Steve, once again you’ve written a column that — like the bed picked by Goldilocks — is just right! Instead of doing a Top 10 or Top 12, you’ve zeroed in five promising colts who are worthy of close examination, including a sleeper so off the radar (Admiral Dennis) I’d never heard of him. I find it interesting you included Bullard and not Citizen Bull (WHAT is it with these “bull” names among Baffert trainees? Must be the owner). Between the debut of Barnes tomorrow (if he indeed runs) and the Ky. Jockey Club this weekend, things are starting to get verrrrrry interesting.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and all who read and post here!
Ms Blacktype, if you search for Admiral Dennis on Thoroughbred Daily News all his past history will come up and you’ll be able to see a video of his impressive last race. TDN has tagged him a Rising Star, after you’ve seen the race you’ll know why!! Ha ha
Davids, I’ll put that video on my list to check out. Thanks!
Thanks Steve for making sure we keep our eyes wide open as start at the beginning of the Derby Trail. It’ like your a lookout on the masthead of a ship searching the horizon! The one thing I like that’s happening on Friday is the Fall High Weight Handicap, In my eyes the last vestige of true handicap racing
KD Futures Pool #2 opens on Thursday, November 28th. There are several big longshots that look enticing, IMO. They are as follows:
Donut God, 99-1
Grayscale, 99-1
Journalism, 99-1
Render Judgment, 80-1
Studlydoright, 90-1
Whiskey Shot, 99-1
Studlydoright, by Nyquist, out of a Curlin mare, has been flying under the radar for some time. He recently won the Nashua Stakes on Nov. 2nd, going a mile in 1:37.23.
His tail-female side reflects the Phipps breeding of Polish Numbers and Numbered Account. I doubt his 90-1 odds will last prior to the closing of Pool #2 on Sunday, 12-1.
In addition, Journalism, Donut God and Grayscale certainly deserve consideration for a futures bet at 99-1, IMO.
Render Judgment, at 80-1, in Pool 2, is scheduled to run in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, on Saturday, November 30th, at Churchill (R11). Jonathan’s Way finished 7th in the BC Juvenile is entered as well and appears to be the one to beat. He showed excellent speed in the G3 Iroquois Stakes, but he could prove to be a sprinter/middle distance type when all is said and done.
That said, I’ll go with Render Judgment in the KJC Stakes. His Pedigree is stamina oriented, and he appears to be a fighter, as he displayed in his maiden win.
I will be away from Wednesday afternoon to Friday and my phone is out of commission so I will try to catch up on the comments when I get back,
Steve, your title certainly caught my eye!
I echo your thoughts about Albaugh. I take it Admiral Dennis was named for Dennis Albaugh? They always bring some nice horses for the Derby and many race beyond 3. True sportsmen.
I always like to see what Godolphin is offering. The organization takes very good care of all their horses, especially their pensioned broodmares.
Thank you for sharing these 5 with us. I sill certainly be paying attention.
Bernardini certainly established himself as broodmare sire. See his daughters in a number of pedigrees now.
Interesting about Caro. Rarely do I see Caro in pedigrees.
Read an article the other day that because Man O’War’s owner limited breeding to him and was very selective about the mares, the MOW stallion line is fading. Hopefully one of the Tiznow’s standing at stud will help fill the void.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family and to all the friends on here.
Thank you Lynda and for all your wonderful and informatve comments all year. Have a very Happy Thanksgiving.
And so it begins .Another exciting year of racing aimed at securing a berth in the Derby. Thank you Steve for all of your hard work this year. Just outstanding writing. Wishing you and all of your fans a very good Thanksgiving.
Thank you Kenny. Same to you
The colt that hasn’t gained any national recognition that I think can be a monster if he can perform proficiently on dirt is Godolphin’s Poster.
DOB – Ma 20th
Sire – Munnings
Dam sire – Tapit
Race Record – 2 Start (turf); two wins over 8F
Debut MSW- Ellis Park 8F (10 entrants); Forwardly placed and won by 1 3/4L in 1:35.17
2nd Start Allowance – Keeneland 8F (12 entrants) Forwardly placed and won by 3L in 1:36.35
NB:
Equibase Figure Debut 72; Allowance 93
A May 20th foal running consecutive 1:35 plus for 8F on turf, whilst winning with authority and full of late run is not to be taken lightly if he is proficient on dirt.
Categories referenced above that deserve the check mark –
A – Check
B – Check
C – Check
D – Check
He could make the KD via the Jeff Ruby.
Yes, Poster has been most impressive and the Jeff Ruby might be the way they’re going with him.
99-1 Futures price, for Journalism….I think he’ll like ten furlongs….
I have reviewed the video of his maiden breaker and was mildly impressed. He is big heavy colt that takes a lot of riding.
He passes horses….I like a horse like that—Sovereignty, as well—too many preps are wire to wire jobs, by horses that need that lead, and do not pass horses—The Kentucky Derby usually has a half dozen front running winners, who dominate their preps—
Interesting 5!
Sovereignty and Showcase have won graded stakes with some amount of authority. Wouldn’t both have some amount of national recognition?
It appears only Sovereignty of the 5 has national recognition as the Godolphin colt closed as the 4th choice (22/1) in the 2025 KD Future Pool #1.
Showcase closed at 89/1
Bullard closed at 99/1
Because this column was finished in the very late, or early morning, hours I only now was abe to proof read it and have corrected a bunch of typos that I’m sure you noticed. It should be relatively clean now
Mr. Haskin, what is your impression of East Ave? Hope you have good holiday!
I briefly gave my impressions in the column. But to sum it up he is the best 2yo I’ve seen this year and the one I feel could be special.
Thanks!
I sure hope so! I love MD’O, and think he should have a special progeny!
I’m so glad you still feel that way about East Avenue, Steve. I really hope he turns out to be something special.
His trainer plays by the rules.
Lol, ‘the audacity to make a spectacle of himself,’ awesome! The nerve of some of these young guns huh?
I appreciate you sharing the Thoro-Graph numbers from time to time. In this game, lil nuggets of info can be rewarding along with the progression of these competitors.
I like the list and I think we have a better than average group heading into the 3 year old season with more to come. We shall see. Hope all stay healthy and safe.
Thanks for the Derby Trail appetizer! I think William Hill opened their Derby futures early this year, a few weeks ago. I was glad I was able to jump on Journalism at 100-1 when he opened; I think a lot of futures money went on him early: he is now 25-1. I think for futures wagers, since there is so much time until the Derby, it makes sense to get as high odds as possible at this point.
I am looking forward to this week’s races and for some new names to emerge…
I like the horse—But at 25-1 I’m not interested! 25-1 won’t float my boat!..and I like him!
I agree; at 100-1, worth a futures bet; at 25-1, not much value…I like the horse too…
I know this is totally irrelevant but William Hill must have one of the worst logos ever. Ladbrokes logo is about the best.
William Hill also has one of the worst apps; crashes a lot and can’t handle busy days, like football Sunday’s mobile wagering volume; in-game bets are hit-or-miss…at least withdrawals are pretty quick!
Ha ha biggy312. There are over 1,400 betting shops operating in the Uk. They always paid less than Ladbrokes and Coral. Coral has over 1,600 betting shops and Ladbrokes over 2,200.
Ladbrokes and Coral merged in 2016 to become Ladbrokes Coral. Ladbrokes Coral was acquired by GVC Holdings in 2018. Nonetheless, Ladbrokes and Coral still have separately run betting shops.
Hi Steve
On Nov. 20th, I posted my top 13 colts, which included Bullard, Showcase, Sovereignty and Journalism. I added Admiral Dennis to my watch list after zmi pointed him out.
Here are a few others to keep an eye on moving forward; Patch Adams, Praetor, Rookie Card, Built, Authentic Strike and David of Athens.
Hi Bill;
Did you get your futures bet down on Render Judgement? He is now 50-1
Hey biggy312
No, I didn’t. I haven’t made any futures bets so far. I tried to contact a relative in Vegas to get the bet down, but she was out of town and will not return for some time. I’m waiting to see the horses that are listed in KD Futures Pool #2 and their respective odds. If I like what I see in that pool, I might head to the Viejas Casino and lay down a bet or two.
Hi Bill, I mentioned Praetor and like him, but I havent heard from him in a while. I did mention anoter horse I like with only start and that is Uncle Jim. He beat Admiral Dennis in a work and Patch Adams, who was third to David of Athens, beat him in a work. He is very fast
Steve
Thanks for the reply, and the heads up on Uncle Jim. I’ll check him out.
BTW, great read on your current article. With the respect to the “Five Card Studs” you mentioned, I would place Bullard at the top, followed by Sovereignty, Journalism, Admiral Dennis and Showcase.