Forecast of Reign at Del Mar
It’s never too early to look ahead and project a potential dream matchup even when there are still a few obstacles to get past. By November 1, following the Travers, Pacific Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Woodward, we could have a totally different scenario, but right now there is a good possibility we could have enticing showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Classic that has been brewing for over two decades. ~ Steve Haskin
Forecast of Reign at Del Mar
By Steve Haskin
The battle lines are drawn. We may be getting too far ahead ourselves, but if two of racing’s titans, Sovereignty and Sierra Leone, emerge victorious from their upcoming battles at Saratoga, one in Saturday’s Travers Stakes and the other in the following week’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, it would set up an epic confrontation in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
But as huge as that would be, the main antagonists would not be the two equine combatants as much as it would be the two most powerful dynasties the racing world has ever seen, who have been adversaries on the international stage seeking world domination for the past quarter of a century.
They are, of course, the Dubai- and England-based Godolphin, owner of Sovereignty, and the Ireland-based Coolmore, majority owner of Sierra Leone. By facing off in the United States’ richest race, and on the dirt, with Horse of the Year on the line, this would be Alexander the Great taking on Genghis Khan to determine who is, at least for now, the world conqueror.
There is no need to list all the gaudy statistics compiled by these two powerhouses, such as Godolphin’s single-year record earnings of over $20 million in the U.S. and 2,200-plus stakes wins all over the world, and Coolmore’s 11 English Derby and 17 Irish Derby victories.
The rivalry between Godolphin and Coolmore Stud began in earnest when they started a bidding war in the mid-1980s at the Keeneland July Sales for the world’s most expensive yearlings.
Back then, Coolmore, which consisted of John Magnier and his wife Susan and legendary trainer Vincent O’Bien (Susan’s father), along with Robert Sangster, teamed up wih Stavros Niarchos, and Daniel Schwartz under the name British Bloodstock Agency. In 1984, the sales market zoomed into the stratosphere when the BBA purchased four yearlings for prices ranging from $4.2 to $8.2 million while Shekh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s Darley Management bought four yearlings ranging from $3.7 to $7.1 million. Their battles made sales history in 1985 when BBA paid a record $13.1 million for a colt by English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky, out of My Charmer, dam of American Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, outbidding Sheikh Mohammed. But the Sheikh still managed to come away with 11 yearlings ranging from $625,000 to $2.6 million, while his brother Maktoum Al Maktoum’s Gainsborough Stud bought one for $7 million and two others for over $1 million,
Looking back, in 1951, O’Brien, one of the most successful steeplechase trainers of his era before turning to flats, had formed Ballydoyle Stable and turned it into one of the most successful stables and breeding operations in the world, centered around nearby Coolmore Stud where they stood their stallions. O’Brien, Magnier, and Sangster continued under the name Coolmore. Sangster, who on his own was the leading owner in England five times, left Coo0lmore in 1984 to focus on his own homebreds, and when Vincent O’Brien retired from training in 1994, he was replacd by young Aidan O’Brien (no relation), who turned Coolmore into the worldwide juggernaut it is now, with Michael Tabor and eventually Derek Smith joining the team.
in 1992, Sheikh Mohammed and his brothers Sheikhs Maktoum and Hamdan formed Godolphin. Soon the Coolmore/Godolphin rivalry began to carry over to the racetrack as their operations expanded.
Winning the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic has always been a major goal of both stables, and for many years they were determined to accomplish it with horses trained at home. Coolmore’s first Breeders’ Cup victory actually was on dirt with Johannesburg winning the 2001 Juvenile. The stable, trained by Aidan O’Brien at Ballydoyle, would go on to win a record-equaling 20 Breeders’ Cup races.
Coolmore had made its first big push at the Classic in 2000 when they sent their star, the indefatigable Giant’s Causeway, nicknamed The Iron Horse, and almost pulled it off, losing a heartbreaker by a neck to Tiznow.
The year before, Godolphin ran its first starter in the Kentucky Derby when they brought Worldly Manner back to Dubai from the U.S. and ran him cold off a layoff, but that effort failed as did their subsequent attempts sending horses to Churchill Downs from Dubai.
In 2001, both Godolphin and Coolmore loaded their biggest guns and headed for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Belmont Park. Godolphin sent their Prix de l’Arc Triomphe winner Sakhee, who romped by six lengths in the Arc after winning the Group 1 Juddmonte International by seven lengths, while Coolmore sent their superstar Galileo, winner of the English Derby, Irish Derby, and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Sakhee looked like a winner in midstretch, but like the previous year, it was Tiznow who outgamed the foreign invader to win by a nose, with Galileo finishing sixth.
The race before, Godolphin and Coolmore had gone at it in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, finishing first and second with Godolphin’s hard-knocking warrior Fantastic Light, winner of eight major stakes in five different countries, defeating Coolmore’s St. Leger winner Milan.
In 2002, Godolphin got the better of Coolmore in the Arc de Triomphe when Marienbard and Sulamani ran first and second, with Coolmore’s English and Irish Derby winner High Chapparal finishing third. But High Chapparal would go on to win back-to-back runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Turf in 2002 and 2003, defeating Sulamani (fifth) in the latter.
But championship battles between Godolphin and Coolmore such as these in America, especially for Horse of the Year on dirt, were not seen over the next two decades. In 2017, Godolphin’s French-trained Talismanic did win the Breeders’ Turf, with Coolmore’s Highland Reel, winner of the previous year’s BC Turf, finishing third. And Coolmore came close in the Classic once again, losing by two noses with Declaration of War in 2013.
Finally both stables realized their best chance to win the Derby and Classic was with a horse trained in America. Godolphin was the first to expand their operation and soon had major stakes winners, most of whom who were broken and received their early training at farms in the U.S. before being sent to trainers Brad Cox, Bill Mott, Brendan Walsh, Mike Stidham, and their first U.S. trainer Eoin Harty, who is still winning stakes for them. It was Mott, who after so many years, finally won them their first Kentucky Derby this year with their homebred Sovereignty, who then added the Belmont Stakes, which Godolphin had won four years earlier with the Brad Cox-trained Essential Quality. Mott also gave them their first U.S, Horse of the Year in 2023 when Cody’s Wish completed his illustrious career with his second straight Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile victory.
Coolmore took longer to come around, but they did eventually, sending young horses to Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Brad Cox, Wesley Ward, Brendan Walsh, Mike McCarthy, Steve Asmussen, and Simon Callaghan, many in partnerships. One of those they sent Brown was a $2.3 million yearling purchase named Sierra Leone, who was beaten a nose in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and then gave them that elusive Breeders’ Cup Classic victory as well an Eclipse Award for Champion 3-Year-Old. This year, Coolmore was represented on the Derby trail by Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic and the stakes-winning Clever Again, both trained by Steve Asmussen.
With his impressive victory in the prestigious Whitney Stakes several weeks ago, leaving his arch rival Fierceness far up the track, Sierra Leone is now back in the Breeders’ Cup Classic picture as a serious contender. In fact, in the latest Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic poll, the 3-year-old Sovereignty and 4-year-old Sierra Leone are ranked first and second, respectively, with Sovereignty getting 413 points and 24 first-place votes to Sierra Leone’s 376 points and 16 first-place votes.
And now we have the chance to possibly witness these two powerhouse stables, who have certainly flourished on dirt since being “Americanized,” go head-to-head for Horse of the Year honors if they can get by the 11/4-mile Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup, with the latter at this point appearing to be Sierra Leone’s next start unless something changes. The likely alternative would be the 1 1/8-mile Woodward Stakes on September 27.
What makes this Breeders’ Cup confrontation so fascinating are the similarities between Sovereignty and Sierra Leone, especially from a physical standpoint, with both being, big, strong, imposing colts with a huge stride and a powerful closing kick. Both needed time to mature and have become more professional.
To demonstrate just how similar they are, I have gone back to their respective Derby Rankings in ’24 and ’25 and taken comments I made each week and my observations at the time. I am going to list those comments, and see if you can pick which horse to whom they pertain.
“He is a juggernaut who builds up momentum and steamrolls his opponents.”
“He has a long sweeping stride that eats up ground, and his cat-like quickness contributes to his rapid-fire acceleration and explosive move.”
“His final three-eighths in :34 2/5 and final eighth in :12 flat shows you the powerful closing kick and determination this colt has.”
“He is a physical freak with the talent to match.”
“He needed time to mature and we likely have seen only the tip of the iceberg”
“Trying to decide who is No. 1 (on my Derby Rankings) is the toughest thing I’ve had to do all year…The coward in me calls it a tie.”
Pretty tough, huh? Hard to tell which comment was made about which horse? Well, the truth is, every single comment was made about Sierra Leone. But be honest, would you be surprised if I said every comment was made about Sovereignty? That gives you some idea just how similar these two colts are.
Right now we can only hope to see both these extraordinary horses charging down the stretch together in the Classic with Horse of the Year on the line, and determining which dynasty gets to claim world supremacy, at least on this day. And no Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby or Saeed bin Suoor; just plain old Yanks Bill Mott and Chad Brown leading the two powerful armies in battle.
But let’s remember there are two obstacles to get past first in the Travers and Gold Cup and we have a couple of “M” and “M” boys who are capable of making things difficult for them. They are the brilliant and rapidly improving Magnitude, who runs in the Travers and could be the lone speed, and Mindframe, a Horse of the Year candidate in his own right who is pointing for the Gold Cup and who many consider the best older horse in the country.
And let’s not forget Godolphin’s other weapon Highland Falls, who not only won last year’s Gold Cup by four lengths and is looking to repeat, he put up a heckuva fight against Sierra Leone in the Whitney, finishing second by a length in only his second start of the year. And he is by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Curlin, out of Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner, Round Pond.
So it doesn’t appear as if Sovereignty and Sierra Leone are going to have an easy time of it in two of America’s most historic and prestigious races, especially with the Travers drawing only five horses and Magnitude, a fast and classy horse. likely to control the pace. But if they can get past these formidable foes they will then have some two months to prepare for the main event at Del Mar, where Journalism and Nysos will be waiting for them.
Del Mar has hosted three Breeders’ Cups, and all three Classics were won by Eastern invaders who had either won or placed in the Whitney or Travers. But Journalism tthis time will be on his home track and Nysos, assuming he stretches out to 1 ¼ miles successfully, could be a freak based on the awe-inspiring performances and visuals we’ve seen so far.
So how will all this play out? Will we have that long-awaited showdown, almost 25 years in the making, between racing’s two international giants, on dirt in America with Horse of the Year at stake? Will we see the Kentucky Derby winner and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner slugging it out in the stretch?
Stay tuned the next two Saturdays when Saratoga really starts heating up.
Photos courtesy of Coglianese Photos
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Two super posts this week and last, Steve. The results from The Travers look like they’ll get us even closer to the Classic showdown that you previewed for us.
Going back, I was too young for Kelso, but a very sweet girlfriend of a family friend gave me her copy of Marguerite Henry’s “All About Horses” when I was 4. I remember loving Kelso’s photo – and the fact that he was the consummate OTTB, and had a job after racing.
Speaking of geldings I love, it was really cool to see Book’em Danno write his name in the history books, bravely threading the needle to prevail on Saturday. A gelding SHOULD win the race named for Forego! Quite a few of the races over the weekend were on script, and I really enjoyed them.
P.S. As the daughter of a historian, I still care about history! Sorry I haven’t commented much of late, but I’m with you. Please keep ‘em coming.
Thank you very much Katy
Filoso resurfaces, in the Saratoga 6th…10-1 in a sprint….Colossal sized colt has been a colossal disappointment, but I saw something I liked, last year…..
Matthew W, were you at Del Mar today to see Sweet Azteca? I thought I had read the splits wrong. They were absolutely flying. Juan never uncocked his whip, just tapped her twice on the neck. I was disappointed they didn’t come east for The Ballerina, but The Rancho Bernardo was definitely the practical choice. If they’re all coming to her house for the big one, why risk shipping? Especially since she’s just into this comeback – and looking SO good.
I was not there, I did get an up-close of her beating Kopion, at Los Al, I saw her in the paddock and spoke with her owner (I told her they were going to win)…then I walked up to Schwanie’s, and watched from the deck—she is a lovely grey, with a whirw face—I wasn’t too thrilled with Juan pushing :43 4/5—She probably was blowing, after that race (she was really blowing, after the Kopion race)….I think she’s the best sprinter, male or female….I’d go in the Sprint at 6fur/$2 million!….
At age 37….Ron Turcotte had won over 3000 races, and had been the regular rider of Riva Ridge and Secretariat….. a terrific first 37 years……his subsequent 47 years were spent in a wheelchair—where he would travel all over, working tirelessly for injured jockeys—I call this a life well lived..
Sovereignty’s Travers win was so magnificent and otherworldly it will take some time for it to thoroughly sink in. I was so blown away I didn’t even realize he’d won by 10 lengths. And the DRF included the Beyer figure in its story on the race: a 115. No matter what you may think of Beyer figures, that’s pretty otherworldly, too.
And geared down!
Well…yeah….Bracket Buster was beaten 8 lengths in The Haskell and 8 lengths today–the FOX commentators were talking about him being an all-time great—lets beat older horses, at least—and travel, some….he IS impressive, but—he beat Bracket Buster….
Matthew,remember some, at least on another site stated this week Steve’s horse would blow away Sov. Lol
Matthew, couldn’t agree more. That must be the worst Travers Stakes field I can ever remember. Which doesn’t take away from Sovereignty’s performance but you have to put things into perspective.
Del Mar is not Saratoga, and the Pacific Classic next Saturday should be most interesting on how to gauge things coming up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
It definitely was not a strong field, but I would put the fields Tiz the Law beat in the covid year Travers and Belmont at least equally unaccomplished. I think Tiz the Law was a very good horse and is proving himself as a sire, but until Authentic entered the picture, his competition was allowance horses. As for Sovereignty, an otherwise very good horse, Journalism, folded both times Sovereignty came alongside him. I’m not ready to call him great, but he could be if given the opportunities.
Todd, Tiz the Law defeated Country Grammer the future Dubai World Cup and Hollywood Gold Cup Winner and second in the Saudi Cup; Max Player winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap; Uncle Chuck who won the Los Alamitos Derby Gr 3; Shivaree who was second in the Florida Derby.
Do you seriously think that any of the horses that Sovereignty defeated in the Travers Stakes will ever reach this level of competition and win? Obviously, not. The field that Sovereignty defeated in the Travers Stakes are allowance to possible Grade 3 level on their best day.
At the time those races were run, the competition was unaccomplished. Yes, a couple of them trained on and won some good races, which these also rans could also do. There are a lot of big money races out there for horses allowed to mature and kept in training. We’ll see. Maybe Tiz the Law wasn’t the same horse in the fall of 2020, or maybe the competition improved. I love Tiz the Law and his connections. I was sorry circumstances took away his chance to be a KD winner, which he likely would have been if the race were run in May.
I think timing matters. What has a horse accomplished at the time you beat them.?For example beating a 3yo Gun Runner is different than beating the horse he became later.
Todd, it doesn’t really matter which way you frame it. The field that Tiz the Law had in my view 10 times the potential to progress upward than the field Sovereignty faced.
It simply comes down to the same thing, the field that Tiz the Law faced in the Travers Stakes was infinitely superior to the field Sovereignty faced.
Seattle Slew faced mediocre fields as a three year old but it didn’t diminish the quality of the horse.
I’m a big fan of Tiz the Law but, to be fair, I think Sovereignty scared off a more competitive field to a large extent. They all decided to go elsewhere. Completely agree that the field Tiz faced was better and it’s a little disappointing that people are still doing the “yeah, but who did he beat?” thing with him.
Davids, didn’t see Barnes in Travers. Sovereignty can only run against who faces him. Not his fault,many were scared to enter.
I think you are missing the elephant in the room, apart from Sovereignty and to a much lesser extent Journalism, this crop of three year olds aren’t that good.
Barnes is not a 10f horse and isn’t that great anyway. Lol.
Davids, over six months ago some thought Barnes was second coming of Secretariat.
Yes Mike, and the importance of the name etc, but on the horse’s first outing and physical type he was not for me. Nonetheless, Barnes does have talent.
Not a horse in CA who could warm Sov. up except Journalism.
So you are dismissing Nysos ?!? Dismiss at your own risk. Until he gets beat badly I would not Dismiss.
We have different views regarding that barn.
Davids thank you—I wrote emptionally—I absolutely love Sovereignty, and his tactical ability to close no matter the fractions, and he has that kick—Its not just Horse Racing, people always wanting to annoint this guy or that as ALL TIME GREAT…..Tomorrow Amoss saying how Sovereignty overcame a “bad trip”—huh? He was right alongside Bracket Buster at the top of the stretch, after no taking up or clipping heels, and he dusted him….I “knew” he would, this guy has toyed with Journalism and Baeza, did Amoss really think he was going to have to overcome a bad trip? There’s no bad trip! Let’s beat older…(I think Fierceness will beat Journalism Saturday, he didn’t like that Whitney surface they made, for Sierra Leone) …beat older…and TRvel to Del Mar….THEN I will call him great, I think he IS great…but are net ready to anoint him great, not just yet…
Meant to say I wrote EMOTIONALLY…I was reacting to the “hes an all time great” plaudits….he MAY be—but don’t say that yet…..
Matthew, I totally agree with you again. I think Journalism will find it extremely hard getting past Nysos and Fierceness. Also, I don’t think Sierra Leone’s rabbit is going to worry Mindframe in the slightest either.
If Sovereignty beats Fierceness, Mindframe, Nysos and Sierra Leone/rabbit at Del Mar then he is a great colt but that is some mighty four year olds. Not forgetting Journalism either who might just grow that extra leg in California. It’s getting exciting now!!
When I consider Sovereignty’s greatness–or lack of it–, I keep coming back to the Preakness. Either he was capable of running in the Preakness–and undoubtedly winning it–and going on to win the Belmont and the Travers, or he wasn’t. If he wasn’t, he wasn’t great–at least not by my definition. If he was capable of it–and I believe he was–he was robbed of a legacy and a place in the history books that only Triple Crown winners get, and racing was robbed of a special kind of hero. We’ll never know what might have been, but for me it’s a no-brainer. We should have fourteen Triple Crown winners and one from this century who made it a Quadruple Crown. But we’ll probably have to wait a long time for that.
Jiffy, my opinion is thinking what’s in the best interest of the horse instead of what I want. Didn’t work out for Mystic Dan, trainer foolishly ran him in all three. Tanked after that. Mott knows how to manage a horse.
Agreed
Davids, I admit I was disappointed that Magnitude faded just when I thought he’d make a race of it. Could be he’s better at 1 ⅛ miles or less. Or perhaps a little short for the mile and a quarter.
Ms Blacktype, that’s what I thought about the field facing Sovereignty in the Travers Stakes – not Classic colts – the 10f. was a present to Sovereignty. Just think if it was a 12f. race like a real Belmont Sovereignty could have tripled the 10 lengths to…
The 2012 Travers in which Alpha and Golden Ticket dead-heated had a pretty bad field. I would consider it worse than this year’s because there was no one there comparable to Sovereignty. But the unique finish and the presence of two canoes for the next year made it memorable despite the absence of quality.
Alpha did go on to win the Woodward Stakes n the process defeating Flat Out, Successful Dan, Ron the Greek and Paynter. That is a top Grade 1 field by any standard.
Never do I pay attention to Beyers. For me,Sovereignty was never in doubt. However,some are eating crow. How’s that for skipping Preakness? Loved it when Mott stated reason for skipping,cause they didn’t want to. Lol Bravo!
Over the moon!!!
Yes, yes, yes!!
Sovereignty
Yeah Sovereignty! I love this horse more every race. Can’t wait for the BC.
Never doubted it.
It’s Sov. and everyone else.
Agree Mike
Thanks.
Anna wins by a nose over Dorth Vader.
Congratulations!
Another race that was worthy of its namesake in the running this year. Personal Ensign was all guts and grit (and luck!), too! That stretch duel did her memory proud.
Saturday is the final day of the Ebor Festival at York with the 7f. City of York Stakes being the remaining Group 1 race to be decked.
Oisin Murphy looks the winner here on Never So Brave and Oisin has been touting his chances here all week so we’ll take him on trust.
The racing at Randwick has been thrilling today but now it’s on to York, Saratoga, Del Mar for more thrills on the racing calendar worldwide.
Oisin Murphy was correct in his assessment on his chances with Never So Bold in the City of York Stakes. Murphy rode to win and did so!!
In 30 minutes the Australian Champion racehorse, Via Sistina, will try and win the same Group 1 race she did last year – the 7f. Winx Stakes – to start off the 7 year old mare’s latest racing season.
Speaking of Winx another of her yearlings, a colt by Snitzel, will be sold at the 2026 Inglis Easter Yearling Sales.
Randwick has had 8 inches of rain in past week so the track is heavy but it’s a rare sunny day in Sydney today.
Via Sistina has actually turned 8 in Australia due to the southern hemisphere standards but in Europe Via Sistina is a seven year old.
Champion glamour jockey, J – Mac, gets the great mare over the line in the Group 1 Winx Stakes. Unbelievable performance.
Congratulations!
Love these older mares that stand the test of time.
Sad to hear Mr. Turcotte passed.
R.I.P.
…
The last living survivor of the Secretariat team has passed. Hall of Famer Ron Turcotte was a more than able partner in the exploits of the great Secretariat. Although known primarily as the pilot for Secretariat, Turcotte was an accomplished rider who was in the saddle for many of the top stakes horses of his era in the 60’s and 70’s.
Alas, when he broke his neck in 1978, he turned to making appearances whenever he could to raise money for the PDJF to aid his fellow disabled jockeys. Ron Turcotte was and always will be a credit to the sport of horseracing. He was a class act all the way.
RIP Ron. You’ve lived your life courageously well.
Really well said, Dewey.
As Ms Blacktype wrote. A fine tribute, Dewey.
Very well said Dewey.
It is the end of an era along with the passing of Secretariat’s last known living progeny, Maritime Traveler earlier this summer.
Beautifully said Dewey. A very fitting summary of someone who, as you’ve said, lived his life with class, with courage and with integrity.
Thank you.
Dawn
My most heartfelt condolences to Ron Turcott’s family and loved ones.
I’m so sorry to hear that he passed away. He will certainly be missed.
My sympathy also to his family, friends, and fans, which includes just about everybody. I think he was the last of Secretariat’s immediate family so this is also the end of an era. Very sad news.
Jiffy, Ron was the last one.
I would like to think that he, Penny, Laurin, Eddie, Charlie, Secretariat and Riva Ridge are all up in Heaven reliving those glory days.
Feeling very, very old tonight.
A beautiful thought. We may be old, but we’re lucky to have been around to see those glory days. The people and horses of that era provided us with wonderful memories that most people today don’t have.
Very lucky indeed Jiffy.
Absolutely. So glad I got to witness that very special time in Race Horsing. Amazing !!
It certainly does, Lynda. Age is catching up to everyone.
Sierra Leone was my Derby horse last year. Sovereignty was my Derby horse this year. If these two do end up duking it out at Del Mar, I’m going to have a hard time knowing who to root for! I suppose I prefer Sovereignty at this point. Sierra Leone, though, has had a way of winning just when I’ve given up wagering on him, lol.
Well, like the dish that ran away with the spoon, Minnie Hauk simply outclassed her rivals in the Yorkshire Oaks and, no doubt, is the odds on to win the Arc this year. Mind you, should Coolmore dare to enter Twirl in the Arc as well Minnie might meet her match this time round.
Anyway, on to one of the most thrilling races in the European calendar this Thursday, the fabulous Nunthorpe Stakes. Where else do you have a Group 1, 5f. sprit race, with a field of 17 to make you go cross-eyed in a minute but at York. Honestly, don’t miss it.
I’m going for outsider, Frost at Dawn. Good luck.
Clearly, if a grade 1 race in the U.K. or Ireland has “Oaks” in the name, Minnie Hawk is going to be the winner. Thanks for the heads up about the Nunthorpe, Davids!
It was a thrilling race, Ms Blacktype, for a second I thought Frost at Dawn might just get there. A good third, nonetheless.
Ms Blacktype, Asfoora, in winning the Nunthorpe Stakes further provided evidence that the Australian sprinters on turf are superior the world over.
It’s such a pity that Australian prize money dwarfs the rest of the world as it prevents most of their better horses than going overseas to test their mettle. The prize money for sprinters is simply extraordinary.
Just go through the field of the 7f Winx Stakes field and see how much each horse has won in prize money. You won’t see that even in the Arc or the Breeders’ Cup Classic fields and these are sprinters.
Davids, What an accomplished mare she is, winning a grade 2 stakes in Australia and a Group 1 in the U.K. And yes, I have noticed how lucrative Australian stakes purses are. She also hails from the Australian “colonial” family C4. Will be interesting (for me) to run down THAT pedigree rabbit hole.
Jockey musical chairs-a dangerous game to play.
Why isn’t the legendary Lanfranco Dettori on May Day Ready on Saturday? Frankie is named on just a couple of horses at Saratoga on Travers Day. My guess is that he won’t be riding at all. I don’t mind Jose Ortiz taking over on May Day Ready.
Why isn’t Juan Hernandez coming out to ride a couple of the BB horses on Saturday at Saratoga? Is he suspended? Does he have better at Del Mar?
Randomized is coming off a big win under Flavien Prat. Prat goes to Raging Sea who he always rides. But why Manny Franco instead of Joel Rosario? Joel watching in the jockey room.
Chad Brown sticks with Irad Ortiz on Chancer McPatrick instead of Prat who rode “Chancer” in his first 7 races. I like this move. “Chancer” might be a decent price again.
Prat ends up on Verifire for Brad C.
Like I said, playing the jockey game can be dangerous to your bankroll without knowing everyone’s motives.
Dettori has a nice mount tomorrow…a 10-1 shot—that is his only mount, he won a race last Sunday, an 8-1 shot—Im sure he will be riding at Kentucky Downs, he lost the mount on May Day Ready—he can still ride turf as well as anybody—
I have to make my usual complaint about the TV schedule of races at Saratoga on Saturday. Travers Day. Their biggest day. If my channel guide is correct, TV coverage begins at 12noon on FS2 before moving over to Fox and back to FS2 late in the card. However, the first race at Saratoga goes at 11:10am. Which means that we can’t watch the first 2 races on TV.
An irritating problem for horseracing fans. Not to mention all of the usual hopping around.
Why can’t we have a place of our own?
Open an account at Twinspires.
BB rolls into Saratoga on Saturday with Hope Road in the Ballerina and three horses in the Allen Jerkens: Midland Money, Barnes, and Madaket Road. I watch a lot of replays and Midland Money looked very good winning an Allowance race at Saratoga on August 3rd. BB left him at Saratoga for a couple of nice workouts. But he comes back quick in just 20 days. Which is very unlike BB. And it will be a huge step up to the Grade 1 Jerkens. Midland Money was sired by Shancelot who “freaked” at Saratoga. I suspect that Shancelot was an “enhanced” horse.
The heavily hyped Barnes is more interesting to me. He was odds-on against Journalism in the San Felipe and only got beat by a length and three quarters before bouncing to the moon in the Santa Anita Derby. BB immediately pushed the reset button on him and he returns after a 4 1/2-month layoff showing some spectacular workouts at Del Mar.
If Sovereignty wins the Travers in a romp, the Jerkens could turn out to be the race of the day with Patch Adams, Verifire, Chancer McPatrick, Captain Cook, and Smoken Wicked along with the 3 BBs.
Chancer McPatrick was “life and death” to win the Curlin at a mile and an eighth in his last race and cuts back to 7-furlongs in the Jerkens. He was beaten by “Patch” and Madaket Road in the Woody Stephens. But I will forgive his poor race over the muddy track. Chad Brown has suggested that he thinks “Chancer” might be better at one turn races. We’ll just see about that with a fast track expected on Saturday. “Chancer” has won 3 of 4 at Saratoga. 1 for 4 everywhere else.
I won’t be completely surprised if Sovereignty gets beat on Saturday. If Magnitude runs a race like he did at Fair Grounds, he could be tough to catch. He seemed to “freak” that day. He earned another pretty good BSF in his return from a chipped ankle at Prairie Meadows. But he didn’t beat much in Iowa. I’m not 100% convinced. Steve Asmussen has won a Travers. Bill Mott hasn’t. The odds will be better on Magnitude. But I can’t bet against Sovereignty. Not after he came through for me in the Derby. Giving me the biggest gambling score of my life. No money to be made at 2-5. I’ll just single him in multi-race wagers. Sometimes weird things happen in small fields. But Sovereignty gets on them quick. And is Magnitude ready for a mile and a quarter after a mile and a sixteenth in Iowa? We’ll see. Asmussen has given him 5 workouts at Saratoga after the Iowa Derby. One thing bothers me about Magnitude. He was beaten by Built in a race run with very moderate fractions in the Gun Runner. I can forgive his poor race in the Lecomte over a sloppy track. But where did that Risen Star win come from at 43-1 with the 108 BSF? Like I said, I’m not 100% convinced.
Steve did you know Allan Jerkins and Woody Stephen’s? Woody came across so course, in the 1988 Triple Crown—he was downright bitter, about Wayne and Winning Colors, then he had Day carry her wide, in The Preakness (the Filly ran huge, regardless—Forty Niner finished up the track)…but that was all I saw, about Woody…Im out west—Jerkins was a genius, all those huge upsets were not by chance!…Two Ge1s Saturday, in their honor….someone suggested there would someday be “The Pletcher” (or…”The Todd”?)….I remarked—for non-stakes winners that cost at least $1 million)…
(Gr1s)..
Allen and I were very close. We would often go out to dinner at Allen’s favorite Italian restaurant near Belmont . I was over his house a few times. He was the greatest. I’ve written many columns on him here and Blood-Horse. I covered that ’88 Preakness. Woody was very upset losing the Derby to a filly. Preakness not one of his best moments nor was Gene Klein’s who said some nasty things about Woody.
Determining who are the best runners in Europe this Spring/Summer is hard to fathom with the races at York providing further evidence. The dual Derby winner Lanbourn flopped today while Ombudsman and Delacroix swapped results from last time.
In a grossly disappointing field of only four in the Yorkshire Oaks tomorrow Minni Hauk would have to dump Ryan Moore to lose.
Meanwhile, in Australia this Saturday we have the first Group 1 race of the season in the Winx Stakes at Randwick along with a host of other Group races. winter is retreating fast…
I suppose Sovereignty will win on Saturday….he is tractible, and can close into softesh fractions, whereas Sierra Leone needs a fast pace, to win….Journalism can run down Gosger, but probably not Nysos, though I’d love to be wrong, about that!..There is buzz, this year! Two and a half months, to the Classic is an eternity—the stuff that dreams are made of! (excuse me, Bogie!)..
Matthew, Maymun is entered in the Pat O’Brien Stakes it will be interesting how he performs.
Mewonders, Davids—Bob sent horses east, for Saturday 7fur stakes, at Saratoga…but kept Maymum home….18 1/2 months….I will watch, for certain—rooting for 8yo full horse Express Train, wondering why he is not getting his well deserved rolls in the hay—he is one of the most well put together horses I have ever seen..
I wonder if Maymum will run Saturday??? Seems like a hard race to put him in after an 18+ month layoff. Would have thought he would have put him in some Opt Claiming race for starters. If he does run there is a lot of early speed… maybe a come from behind effort??? Does anyone know if Express Train is nominated for the Pacific Classic?
Matt W got a chuckle on your remark for the … The Todd Stakes
Best of luck with Express Train, Matthew. I’m a little skeptical on whether Maymum will actually run here but I just want to see how the horse has developed more than anything.
Of course, if Maymum runs and wins…
Or loses.
“The Maltese Falcon”. My second favorite Humphrey Bogart movie after “Casablanca”.
I have both movies DVR’d. I think I’ll watch one of them on Saturday night to come down from my gambling high.
Steve.
Nice write up here were you bring a little past to the present (maybe a new angle you can start with future articles since your concerns in the previous article ) about two powerhouses from Europe. I was glad you mentioned Robert Sangster as he was quite a character in the 80’s and 90’s until his death (left us way too soon at 67 due to a long battle with cancer ) . You can write a whole article about him alone with his contributions and escapades with horse racing. A’ last another tale for another day.
With this week’s Travers it looks to be a 2 horse race between Sovereignty and Magnitude but I am not going to cut short Strategic Focus (nice pedigree of Gun Runner out of a Curlin mare ) Chad Brown trainee who looks to be on the improve and I like McAfee coming back after 3 weeks. With a small field he should have no excuses unless he comes out of the gate stumbling. It is a make or break race for him. With Baffert sending Goal Oriented (GO) to Parx I read in another blog were someone said that he thought he never see the day that Baffert would be avoiding a Mott horse. I am not sure it is just Mott as I think Magnitude (MG) is also playing a big part in his decision. Magnitude is the big “unknown” in this race and has a similar running style to GO and if MG runs like he has in his last 2 races all horses in the Travers will be eating his dust and that includes Sovereignty.
When comparing Sovereignty and Sierra Leone right now I am giving the advantage Sovereignty and I am basing that on his last 2 races in which he has shown more tactical speed. If anything knowing the way Mott gets his horses ready he will at least win the “beauty” contest.
One other thing you mentioned Goldophin’s Highland Falls …. I call him the Forrest Gump ” Box of Chocolate ” horse…. you never know what you are going to get !!! I blame this more on Cox’s training of him. He gets him all geared up to run a big race and he runs in and then instead of keeping the pedal to the metal Cox lets up on him ( waits 2 months between races and gives him pokey works) like he did last year before the BCC. Will be looking how he returns in JGC… would like to see a fast work into him. before the race…. keep him on his toes !!! Just not sure if he is good enough to beat Sierra Leone
Have a Great rest of the week Steve… Always enjoy you column.
One other thing (head scratcher) Barnes….. 12 to 1 in Allen Jerkens ???… Bring it on.!!!!
Turns out Barnes actual ML is 9/2 …. the 12/1 was some other knuckleheads ML for him on another blog.
Barnes is 2 for 2 around one turn….big and built! Bob loves him—prediction: Barnes will leave the gate favored..
Have to rush but by June 2025, Dubawi had sired 61 Group 1 winners. Dubawi is Godolphin’s top sire for those that don’t know.
Steve, very interesting take!
I did not know that the rivalry between Coolmore and Godolphin went back that many years.
You mentioned Robert Sangster. Couple of days ago Diego Valazquez (Frankel) won the Prix Jacque Le Marois racing in Mr Sangster’s colors. His son, Sam, was visibly filled with emotion as he entered the winner’s circle. Sam Sangster had just purchased the colt before the race and will stand at the Irish National Stud in 2026. The colt is trained by Aidan O’Brien and his jockey was Christophe Soumillion. One handsome horse as most Frankel’s are. Runner-up was Godolphin’s Notable Speech. Diego Valazquez’s full sister is Malathaat.
Does Mr Magnier assign the names of the horses? I do like the names of their horses. Diego Valazquez was probably named after the artist by the same name. I also read the Sheik names or approves the names of his horses.
At the moment, from I am reading from a couple of individuals who follow European racing closely the two top sires are Frankel and Wootten- Bassett. To date Frankel has sired 38 Grade 1 winners surpassing Storm Cat, Giant’s Causeway, Nijinsky and A P Indy. Next up is Sunday Silence (44 Grade 1 winners).
The bidding war between Godolphin and Coolmore continues. Godolphin just paid 2.25 million pounds for a Frankel yearling colt. He looks, moves and is built like a two year old.
Had to look up the Irish National Stud. What a beautiful
facility with the gardens. When you visited Coolmore did you visit the Irish National Stud?
As to the Breeders Cup Classic if all the probables make the field it will indeed be a most exciting race!
Lynda, Robert Sangster died in. 2004. It was great seeing his colors again. I was at The Curragh in 1977 to see his colt The Minstrel win the Irish Derby and while there visited the Irish National. A beautiful and historic farm.
Diego Velazquez was named by Coolmore who owned him before selling him to Sam Sangster. Aidan O’Brien still trains him.
Steve, great article as expected. You’re forgetting the 2 F’s who will be running in the BC Classic, that being Fierceness and Forever Young. Most are not expecting much from these 2 but they more than likely have a say in the final outcome of the Classic…just sayin’
ChiefsCrown. If Fierceness has his game face on and his hat on straight will as you say have a say.
Forever Young too.
Hello Chiefs Crown. Hope all is well.
Thanks I didn’t mention them at this time because they’re both comng off poor races and im not sure where Forever Young is right now and just want to make sure his exhaustive campaigns haven’t caught up with him. I’ve always liked him. And after two sound defeats I want to see Fierceness bounce back before ranking him up there. He’s been known to do it before but after only one defeat.
Not to mention Journalism— or have I missed something being offline all week? Will read the whole column when I get back from blissful ignorance on an Adirondack lake; I’m sure it’s chock full of brilliance from Steve.
Thanks
Can’t wait!!! Thank you for all the history details!!! Always enlightened by your verse!!!
At this stage in my life. I just want them all to come home safely, regardless of who wins what. The BC Classic could either be a real humdinger or a blow out. I am hoping for the former just as a fan of horseracing for 60 years. Werd question, what happens if there is a dead heat in the NC Classic? Wouldn’t that be something.
In full agreement Sharon.
Steve, I can’t wait to see what Peb and Remi come up with for this one! I can envision 5 or 6 different angles to this one and all would be applicable. I hope they do them all.
Just a little tidbit to add to the immense rivalry between Coolmoore and Godolphin that Steve has craftily written about. It wasn’t until 2018 that Godolphin started using or buying Galileo progeny while, conversely, Coolmore at the same time wouldn’t use nor buy progeny by Dubawi.
The result of the ‘Pax Coolmore – Pax Godolphin’ can be seen Wednesday at York in the Group 1 Juddmonte International where the Coolmore lads will be represented by Delacroix (Dubawi – Tepin by Bernstein). Yes, that’s Tepin the US Eclipse Champion Turf Female for 2015 & 2016.
I wouldn5 write off Journalism just yet. He’s the one that traveled, he’s the one who ran in all three legs of the triple crown . Folks think just because he lost in the slop in both the Ky Derby and Belmont , he has no shot at the Eclipse . Well I think they are wrong. If he were to win the Pacific Classic and then beat them in the Classic then he would deserve not only the 3yr old championship but HOY. Let’s see how Soverinty does being the one to travel and the one to not run out of his stall. Let’s not forget that the Curlins only get better with age .
Spot on! Journalism is a tough horse.
Who’s writing him off? The column is about a possble Godphin vs Coolmore showdown in the Classic with some history behind the rivalry.. But this is being interpreted as a handicapping
preview of the race .I mentioned that Journalism will be on his home track this time.
Thanks. Guess it read different to me.
With the Breeders’ Cup approaching, it is reasonable to question if the event has been good for racing. Two major contenders in their respective races, She Feels Pretty and Kopion, may not run again until the “big day.” There will likely be many others running at Saratoga or Del Mar the next two weeks who will do the same. The former fall championship races at Belmont and Oak Tree Santa Anita are gone or irrelevant, when they were once the highlight of the year. I remember the winners from many of those races; the Breeders’ Cup, not so much.
Well it has and it hasnt…..before the Breeders Cup–west coast horses had to ship east–or else finish 2nd, in Ecliose voting….even when Ack Ack won HOY—without leaving g California—it was because his stable mate Cougar II went out there and won The Woodward, which was the defacto Breeders Cup Classic every year…..The Breeders Cup offered a chance for championships tobe decided on the track, not always in New York…and it made ALL HORSES have to travel, not just the western based horses….
Since I attended the 1998 Breeders Cup at CD, I naturally consider it to be the best field. This year could surpass it. While I am intrigued with the 1989 correlation of the Cup, your take is so much more compelling. I am a big fan of yours, keep up the good work (forever)!
If they all are healthy and decide to run in the Classic. It is not a two horse race. Forever Young, Nysos, Journalism plus a few others. The race pace and scenario’s should be different for Sovereignty. It could be a pick-em race. The wild Card horse for me is Nysos. I want to see how he fares going 1 1/4. I feel Forever Young will be over looked and under bet.
Nysos hasn’t won a Grade 1.
Lynda great post on Hamilton to David’s. You know your history. David, I hear you about the young crowd, but I fear they will think of our founding fathers as they are portrayed in the play.
Steve, I’ve found Gore Vidal’s “Narrative’s of Empire: America’s Imperial History” the most entertaining of US histories.
With historians, in general, all academia expects is that ‘they’ at least get the dates right. The jaundice opinion, either left or right, goes with the discipline.
To Dale Hager, keep trying. Im trying to be optimistic but im not sure how many we can get through to. Im glad there are more young people at the track. But when it comes to history there doesn’t seem to be much interest and not just in racing but history in general.
To Matthew, from the last column, I doubt that will ever happen. But in 1969 one person I believe Charlie Hatton, voted for Arts and Letters for Horse of the Year and Majestic prince for 3yo champ.
ce
Hopefully Fierceness, White Abarrio and Mind frame will appear also. That would be a fantastic race.
Hopefully I get to see another race after his last clunker. But I’ll take as an outsider, Forever Young. Without the bumping he’s the winner of the Derby in my opinion.
Sovereignty…Journalism….Sierra Leone….Fierceness…Mindframe…Highland Falls….Nysos….Forever Young….Baeza…Locked….TEN CAPABLE HORSES!…I purposely left Thorpedo Anna out—please keep her with fillies!..
Agree with your comment Matthew regarding Anna.
If it comes down to the above scenario, i would expect Sovereignty to come out on top. Sovereignty is likely still progressing and growing while SL has already reached his potential. And no one is better than Bill Mott getting a horse to peak on the big day.
When was the last time a non Triple Crown winning 3yo won HOY WITHOUT beating older horses? Maybe it was Point Given? Did HE defeat older? Point being…Sovereignty.needs to be in the Classic field—I have read things, Godolphin pointing towards the middle eastern races, and may not come west–if they win one of those 5-horse Jockey Club Gold Cups–figuring they. already won HOY—I think he is #1 and I want to see him win the big finale! We live in the era of 125 lb “high weights” ( Thanks, Bobby)…and limited starts (afraid of getting beat)….the 2025 Classic could rival 2000…where we had Tiznow, Giants Causeway, Albert the Great, Captain Steve, Lemon Drop Kid, Fusaichi Pegasus—this COULD be better!..
Del Mar is known for a “sometimes” bad rail….people talk about the tides, nobody knows why the rail is sometimes dull, and it IS only SOMETIMES…..I thought last year the rail was bad—Raging T.orrent ran so many good races…but he had the rail, in The Sprint and he finished far behind—Watching the 2024 Classic—Forever Young was sent like a Quarter Horse, stayed on the rail till the final quarter, and hung in there….do not forget about him!…
Spot on Mathew!