How to Find a Derby Winner… With Your Eyes
We have inundated you all year with Thoro-Graph, Beyer, and Brisnet speed ratings, trip handicapping, and all kinds of statistics, such as early and late factions, as well as several pedigree analyses. But now with most of the Derby horses on the grounds comes possibly the most important two weeks of the year. That is when you have to depend on what you see. Based on our 25 years watching Derby horses train, here is some sort of guide to what to look for, with a history lesson and the benefit of several personal experiences over the years. ~ Steve Haskin
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How to Find a Derby Winner… With Your Eyes
By Steve Haskin
It’s almost Derby week, with everyone glued to their computers watching the Derby horses train. After the field has been drawn, those observations are the final link between your wallet and the mutual windows…or your online account. There are plenty of experts around who know what they’re looking at and share their own observations. My expertise goes way back before computers, cell phones, TVG, and Twitter. Prior to sharing my thoughts on what to watch for when trying to find horses who look physically and mentally ready to win the Derby I thought it best to provide some background material.
In 1956 the Morning Telegraph/Daily Racing Form came up with a new concept on how to report on the Kentucky Derby. Editor Saul Rosen assigned a young reporter named Joe Hirsch to write a daily feature called Derby Doings, beginning weeks before the big race. Each day Joe would write about the workouts from that morning, giving the time and providing quotes from the trainers. Joe would also report on any Derby-related news and which horses were pointing for the race. This had never been done before and proved to be very popular by bringing the readers closer to the Derby.
Joe wrote Derby Doings for the next 38 years until Parkinson’s disease and other maladies finally caught up to him. Although he was able to still write the Derby advance and lead story he was physically unable to continue with the daily grind of Derby Doings.
In 1992 my colleague Ed Fountaine and I had been assigned to do a new feature called The Work Patrol. We would go to Kentucky two weeks before the Derby and write about each morning’s activities. I would do the observations and most of the writing and Ed would do the final editing.
Then one morning in 1994, our editor George Bernet, who also happened to be a friend and mentor, called me into his office and said, “Joe Hirsch just called. He said he was no longer able to do Derby and that I should ‘give it to Steve.’” Needless to say I was overwhelmed and deeply honored.
So I was off to Kentucky to take over a feature that a legend had done for almost four decades. I was a feature writer and not a reporter, so I decided to change the format to suit my style. The biggest change was to describe each work and give my observations, as well as follow the physical progress of all horses and which ones seemed to be thriving, especially monitoring their coats and their energy level from the first week to the second.
Back then there was no way for racing fans and DRF readers to see what was happening each morning and what the Derby horses and workouts looked like. My eyes were the only window to the track and I felt everyone would appreciate what it was like being at Churchill Downs and try to provide a visual connection, while keeping it as light and personal as possible. Of course, I would also get trainer’s quotes after the works, but usually later in the morning.
Once I started that new format it was all about logistics. The barn area was on the backstretch, as was the clocker’s stand. The pressure was to know exactly when each Derby horse would work, get in my car, drive to the far end of the barn area, through the tunnel into the infield, then through another tunnel leading under the grandstand, and up the stairs to the box level and down to the finish line. It was just me, my binoculars, my two stopwatches, and my note pad. Sometimes I got lucky and hitched a ride with a trainer who was working a Derby horse and I would get my quotes immediately after the work. If I missed a work I had no way of writing about it other than to give a time and get some quotes. So there was always pressure to be at the right place at the right time. There was no set time of 7:30 designated just for Derby and Oaks horses as there is now. They would start working as early as 5:30 and would work all through the morning whenever the trainer had them scheduled. But most were after the break at 8:30 following the harrowing of the track.
Then in 2000, a year after I moved on from DRF and began doing my daily feature for the Blood-Horse, the new racing network, TVG, started a new show called “The Works,” that would show every Derby work and replay them at 11 a.m. That relieved a lot of the pressure, being able to go back to my hotel and watch for anything I may have missed, although I did not like the Churchill TV angle from high up, as it did not show off the horse’s action as well or the extension of his stride. Also, back then, not a lot of people were able to get TVG, so many still depended on my reports. Anyway, I did Derby Doings for another 15 years until I left the Blood-Horse on a full-time basis.
Let’s go back to 1993 while I was doing the Work Patrol. I didn’t pay much attention to Sea Hero. Even though he had won the Champagne Stakes at 2 and was trained by the great Mack Miller, his past performances at 3 were not only terrible they were unconventional. Between his poor performances, throwing in a dull grass race, which wasn’t done back then and a mediocre effort in the Blue Grass Stakes there was little to recommend him. Then one morning the second week we were there I noticed Sea Hero walking to the track and I couldn’t believe how his coat gleamed and was full of dapples that weren’t there the previous week. I went over to his barn and talked to Miller’s longtime foreman sitting in a chair outside the barn about how the colt looked. He had been around for many years and pretty much assured me that Sea Hero was going to run a tremendous race. From then on I always made it a point to study a horse’s coat closely, especially from the first week to the second, realizing how much it can change and how important that change can be.
In 2003, Ron Ellis had the horribly named Atswhatimtalknbout in the Derby who had been the top 3-year-old in California before running a dull fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. When I saw him at Churchill he looked horrible, suffering from a bad skin rash all over his body. That was an automatic throwout. Every afternoon, as I always did, I would go to the backstretch to watch the Derby horses graze. That is the best time to observe them, in the quiet of the afternoon when they are under no stress. Each day I noticed Atswhatimtalknbout’s skin rash starting to clear up and looking better than the day before with a few faint dapples starting to appear. Finally, midway through Derby week the rash was gone, and his coat was now bright and dappled all over. I felt we were going to see the colt we had seen earlier in the year. He had a rough trip in the Derby trying to find his way through traffic. He was still 10th at the top of the stretch and had to circle the field some eight-wide. He came flying down the stretch to finish fourth, beaten two heads for second by Empire Maker and Peace Rules and less than two lengths by Funny Cide, closing faster than anyone. With a better trip (and maybe a better name) he might have won that race. That year I learned there is a reason for everything in racing and how important observing is.
If you had seen the way Bluegrass Cat improved physically from week one to week two and was thriving Derby week you could have had a $587 exacta with Barbaro over the 30-1 Bluegrass Cat. Nowadays you have to listen to the experts on Churchill’s morning show, especially Brandon Stauble who is as sharp as they come, to know whose coats are looking great and who is making a big impression. Pay close attention.
Stauble also can dissect a work as well as anyone. What I always looked for, and still do, is for a horse to throw in that one big Derby work – doing everything on his own, listening to his rider’s commands (watch the ears), hugging the rail turning for home and galloping out, and running through the wire like they want to keep going. Always watch the rider’s hands and make sure they are motionless, on a bit of a loose rein, letting the horse grab hold of the bit and keep extending his stride. The greatest Derby work I ever saw was turned in by Smarty Jones, who went five-eighths in :58 1/5 with his ears pricked as if he were in a gallop. You don’t need to work fast for it to be a strong work. Don’t get suckered into fast times alone. It’s how they do it. I have had a number of Derby winners based on works. In addition to Smarty Jones, I remember standout works by Fusaichi Pegasus (not a fast work but a long work and visually flawless), Monarchos (powerful from start to finish), Barbaro (amazing gallop-out), Street Sense (showed another gear in the stretch), Animal Kingdom (had never run on dirt but was loving it and came home fast), and the series of powerful open gallops by I’ll Have Another that could pass as works. These works stamped all these horses as Derby winners.
I learned a lot about time in relation to other factors in 1998. Bob Baffert worked his Santa Anita Derby winner Indian Charlie right after the break and as usual he worked very fast. Baffert then worked his second stringer, Santa Anita Derby runner-up Real Quiet, who worked well, but not as fast. But he worked in company and I saw the big burst of speed he showed at the five-sixteenths pole, where most Derbys are won. Also, the newly harrowed track was faster when Indian Charlie had worked. That taught me to pay attention to the small details, and again not go by time alone. I remember being up in the boxes watching Old Trieste work six furlongs in a blistering 1:09 1/5. His trainer Mike Puype, who was a few boxes down, came walking by me after the work and when I asked him about it, all he said was, “I don’t know whether to laugh or throw up.”
Finally, when it comes to training don’t panic over the unknown and listen to people in the know. Although Florida Derby winner and Kentucky Derby favorite Always Dreaming was a perfect gentleman in the morning at Palm Beach Downs, where it was nice and quiet, he became unglued at Churchill Downs, bucking and throwing his head in the air, and pulling way too hard in his gallops. He basically was uncontrollable and many people were looking to jump ship. But then Todd Pletcher equipped the colt with a set of draw reins, which keeps the head down and gives the rider more control and leverage. It took a little while, but Always Dreaming got used to them and was fine after that. In the Derby he was more than fine. The lesson here is when you see something that looks bad on the track, the trainer sees it, too, so learn what’s going on first before immediately deciding to discard a horse, especially a major contender. Also, when you see something in a work you don’t like, make sure you find out if that is a common occurrence with the horse and that it had had no effect on his past performances. Horses have habits that might look worse than they are, so don’t jump to conclusions. Read all the trainer quotes and listen to all the interviews.
Horses today are generally very lightly raced and we don’t know much about them. You often will learn more about them in the two to three weeks leading up to the Derby than you knew all year… if you keep your eyes and ears open.
On the other hand you should still watch out for horses who keep cocking their head to the side, have a tendency to drift out, get washy on cool mornings, and continuously pull too hard and have the rider trying to strangle them. Horses who get headstrong and pull during that early cavalry charge into the first turn have little or no shot of being anywhere in the Derby. And that is where a jockey is important. You want to ask your horse to get a good position and not get swallowed up in the pack, but often when you ask your horse it’s hard to rein him back in and get him to settle. That is when you want a professional horse with a good mind, and one who is not going to lose it before the race. One last thing to watch for is a horse who bobs his head up and down. Churchill Downs has a tendency to get cuppy and that is a sign that the track is cupping out from under a horse and he’s not getting hold of it. Again, that often happens when a horse first works over it. Many horses will get used to it and Churchill can tighten up one day to the next, especially after a rain. And it’s usually much tighter on Derby Day. So watch out for horses who do that on a day-to-day basis.
The last point to remember, and this is important, is that Churchill Downs is a totally new experience for these horses and an environment they have never seen before. If you see a horse display bad signs his first morning on the track don’t worry about it, just see how he is the second morning, sometimes the third. Many horses take a day or two to get used to the new surroundings. The mornings are for learning, so stay observant.
It sounds simple, but you want to look for a happy horse who is loving what he’s doing and showing good energy, but controlled. You want to see him gallop smoothly with his ears up and listening to his rider’s commands, while keeping his head down into the bit, and you want to see him school like a pro at the gate. Each gallop, each work, and each day should be a step forward. Nothing by itself is going to win the Derby, but doing everything right and keeping a bright healthy coat will go a long way in helping a horse overcome adversity in a 20-horse field and bring out the best in him when the real running begins.
Pedigree Primer
It’s late in the game to start going into pedigrees, as we have a pretty good idea by now who is going to appreciate the mile and a quarter, and I have gone into a number of the pedigrees already in the Derby Rankings.
I always like to start off with interesting pedigree notes more than helpful ones because horses with all kinds of pedigrees have won the Derby, including those who were by confirmed sprinters and milers. It’s the female family that often influences stamina.
One interesting pedigree note this year is a possible exacta box with Forte and Two Phil’s, and this may hit an emotional note more than a scientific one. Forte’s maternal grandsire Blame and Two Phil’s’ maternal great-grandsire Birdstone are both stamina-heavy stallions who probably caused more grief to racing fans than any horses in memory. To this day there still are tens of thousands of fans who refuse to watch Blame’s Breeders’ Cup Classic victory over their beloved Zenyatta, who was only inches from a 20-race undefeated career, and Birdstone’s Belmont Stakes victory over Smarty Jones, one of the most popular horses ever who was only yards away from being an undefeated Triple Crown winner, but was basically ganged up on by the jockeys of his main opponents. This is a totally believable exacta that would finally give these two horses (Birdstone is now actually pensioned) some well-deserved positive press.
Speaking of Two Phil’s, for those who feel his sire Hard Spun might be compromised at 10 furlongs, Hard Spun’s dam is by Turkoman, who ran one of the fastest Marlboro Cups ever and placed in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Travers, out of a half-sister to Belmont and Preakness winner Little Current, by English Derby winner Roberto.
One pedigree of a potential longshot that intrigues me is that of Hit Show, whose sire Candy Ride and broodmare sire Tapit need no explanation. But going deeper in the female family, his great-grandsire Milwaukee Brew, while not a big-name stallion, won two runnings of the Santa Anita Handicap, and three of Hit Show’s four great-great grandsires won the Breeders’ Cup Classic – A.P. Indy, Unbridled, and Wild Again. The fourth, the little known Open Forum, is out of the Darby Dan Farm-bred mare Agretta, by the great classic/stamina sire Graustark, by Ribot. Hit Show also is inbred top and bottom to Fappiano, one of the most influential sires of this era.
Ironically, Disarm has the same three maternal great-grandsires as Hit Show, and his only inbreeding is to Fappiano, but in his case he is inbred three times to him, including once through Quiet American, which means he has the great Dr. Fager in his pedigree four times. In perhaps the most obscure but fascinating pedigree note, Disarm’s sixth dam is an Argentine-bred mare named Papila, who won only three of 18 starts in South America. However, Papila also is the sixth dam of Hall of Famer Tiznow.
There is another longshot’s pedigree that makes me realize how unpredictable the science of breeding can be. Blade of Time was a 1938 foal bred by Colonel Bradley who never ran. Bred mainly to Bradley’s dual classic winner and champion sire Bimelech, Blade of Time produced seven foals in her first eight years at stud, including horses who ran 194 times, 100 times, and 98 times. After producing two foals for her new owner Greentree Stud, she inexplicably went nine consecutive years without producing a foal. As a last resort, Greentree bred her to My Babu, and at the age of 20, she produced a filly named Kerala, who was unraced and was sold to the Woodward family. Kerala’s third foal was a Sword Dancer colt named Damascus, who became a Hall of Famer and one of the soundest, most durable horses of his time. It is noteworthy that Kentucky Derby starter Sun Thunder, runner-up in the Risen Star Stakes and fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes, is a complete outcross other than his dam being inbred 4 x 4 to Damascus through his sons Bailjumper and Desert Wine, who is the broodmare sire of Sun Thunder’s second dam Maryfield, 2007 champion female sprinter. Some pedigree journeys take very odd turns.
Some people are also wondering if Practical Move, who barely hung on to win the Santa Anita Derby over a Japanese import, might have reached his limit being by Practical Joke, who was considered more of a one-turn horse with a good deal of speed in his pedigree. But the question is how far can Practical Move’s broodmare sire Afleet Alex carry him, having romped in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes?
Of course we always have to check on the Secretariat influence in the Derby, and this year, of the top 23 point getters, Secretariat’s name appears in 22 of them, with the only exception being the Japanese-bred Derma Sotogake. Of those 22, his name appears more than once 14 times. Secretariat has three horses not named Weekend Surprise, Terlingua, and Secrettame who can be found in at least Derby horses’ pedigrees. They are Wood Memorial winner Lord Miles (Take Heart), Blue Grass runner-up Verifying (Medaille D’Or), and Sunland Derby winner Wild on Ice (Viva Sec).
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
In reference to the comments below about horses on the Vets List.
The new HISA rules went into effect on January 01, 2023.
The rules are very specific about when the horses go on the Vets List.
In addition to injuries, illness (spiking a fever as an example) and blood tests to make sure all meds have cleared before race day, they can also be placed on the list for shoes (special shoes), farrier work such as quarter crack repair, needing vaccinations such as tetanus, Eastern/Western EEV and Rhino updated. Also must have current Coggins within last 12 months to test for EIA. There might be a couple of other vaccines such as West Nile depending on requirements from the State of Kentucky.
I am hoping that the enhanced testing for the meds and more specific definitions under HISA will greatly reduce the fiasco over the disqualification of Medina Spirit.
TerriZ, just read your comment below about Larry Jones.
I think he retired now and living full time in Kentucky.
Do not see that he is on Facebook or Twitter.
Perhaps Steve knows how he can be contacted.
One thing that was said about Harve De Grace was what a sweet and kind mare she was and Mandy hopes her colt inherits her disposition and intelligence.
Read a very sad little detail about the last couple of days of her life. Her foal knew she was in trouble and stayed right by her side. They did not have the heart to take him away from her so they made a bed of straw next to her so he could lay down.
It reminded me of the time a mare that I had borrowed from a friend colicked a few weeks after my foal from her was born. He stayed right by her side all night and laid down by her head so she could see him and touch him while I was watching her and changing out her IV fluids. She finally got OK around 5 in the morning. The bond between mares and their foals is as strong as any bond I have ever seen.
Great column and story about Joe Hirsch
DRF never had the same authority after Joe Hirsch retired. How do you replace an icon?
Two horses euthanized Tuesday at CHD. Take Charge Briana, 2 year old, trained by Lucas was so badly injured she had to be euthanized on track.
2nd horse was 5 year old gelding trained by Joseph Saffie, died after finishing race.
Just not a good start for the meet considering Wild on Ice last week.
Lynda, I was just about to post about those horrible deaths. WDRB in Louisville had this headline: “Horse deaths, 4 in 6 days, mar the start of Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs”. Two of the four were trained by Saffie Joseph Jr, who has Lord Miles entered in the Derby. I’m a bit surprised that more commentary within the horse-racing community hasn’t occurred to date.
Who was the 2nd horse trained by Saffie? The one I read about was a five year old gelding that Mr Ramsey owned…something Artie.
I had checked all the sites for comments from the t acing community and saw nothing.
I follow a local news station from back home in Virginia (Roanoke) on FB and they reported the two on Tuesday this morning.
Very sad. The Lukas trained filly broke down in the race. Was a catastrophic breakdown and she had to be euthanized on the track.
Both after race deaths were Ramsey horses .
Parents Pride, a 4-year-old filly – Chasing Artie was the other.
ESPN online has it as one of it’s top headlines now. Considering the fiasco the track endured not too long ago regarding the turf course, it appears that it will come under even more scrutinizing as it should when the some of the best in North America are scheduled to compete over it.
Article just posted on BH. The two sudden deaths were Saffie trainees and both on turf.
New HiSA regulations that went into effect on Jan 01, 2023 require a nacropsy on all horses that die on the racetrack grounds even the pony horses.
The sudden death necropsies rarely reveal a cause of death however.
Roberta, there has been some controversy about the turf track at CHD after it was replaced last year.
Hope this is not the beginning of another series of injuries like the ones on the track in California a couple of years ago.
My condolences to all the connections of the three who died this week.
Hardest thing about following this sport is the untimely death of the horses.
We come to expect it (even with our own horses) with the older mares and stallions as they pensioned or retired to Old Friends as they get up in age. It’s the young ones that get to me.
Steve and all, I have to give a shout out to photographer Michele MacDonald.
Her photographs capture the essence of the beauty and soul of all of these horses.
The comments she posts with the photographs are poetry.
She can be found on Facebook.
My selection: ANGEL OF EMPIRE. Reasons have been previously stated, but I’ll say again that he won the strongest of the final preps…and won easily.
I had narrowed it down to AoE, Tapit Trice, Practical Joke, and Hit Show. No fun picking the favorite, though I’ll be happy if the Florida Derby winner gets the roses. Mandarin Hero would have been a finalist. I predict Derma Sotogake to finish in the bottom 5. A win by Practical Move results in a nice supplemental donation to Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, thanks to 83-1 odds in the future wager.
I totally agree. Angel of Empire gets the jump on Tapit Trice and holds him off. Could be anyone after that. Forte is alll racehorse; he seemed to get mad when Mage ran by him in the florida derby, but i don’t feel he is improving. Hope for a safe, clean race.
It was a toss up between Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice for me as well but I’m going for Tapit Trice. Anything can happen in the Kentucky Derby so I’m just going for the horse that seems best suited to 10f. Practical Joke and Forte are very closeup behind the above two. Not much imagination here. Lol.
Skinner is my upset colt to split the above four. Confidence Game impresses but the long break between races and post position seems too much to overcome. You can’t pick them all. Ha ha
In the Oaks, Gambling Girl might give Todd Pletcher a unique double.
Good luck everyone and let’s hope for safe, exciting racing on both sides of the Atlantic.
Roberta, I’m with you on 3 out of 4 of your choices. I’m going to leave Practical Joke out of my wagers. I just got a feeling that he may have peaked and I’m not sure he wants 10 furlongs.
As for Derma Sotogake, I was on the fence with him after seeing his antics in the morning gallops/works, but his work on Tuesday gave me renewed confidence as he exhibited enthusiasm and high energy in his move. His connections are pleased with him and that’s good enough for me. The sushi and sake are on ice and will be ready for the celebration.
Good luck!
Thanks Todd, Davids, and Dewey for your input. Looks like my misnaming of Practical Move (“Joke”!) infected Davids and Dewey. Ha ha!
Roberta, that’s another reason I don’t like him….. I didn’t recognize the name. ha ha!
Ha! I heard someone on Fanduel TV do the same with Practical’s name. Good luck with Derma. He deserves the win if for no other reason than being made to travel a million miles the last few months.
It’s all the travel that has put me off Derma Sotogake but good luck to them if they can pull it off.
Ha ha I didn’t actually notice the ‘joke,’ Roberta. Poor Practical Move gets misnamed on a regular basis. I have a slight cold which is my excuse. Lol. Not getting proper sleep either. I’ve been watching Manchester City win games, in the wee early morning to seal another premiership, then the Kentucky Derby Morning Works Show and following up with who is in and who is out of the English 2,000 Guineas and 1,000 Guineas. Oh, to be in your twenties again. Ha ha
Oh yes! But I have a friend who is in her mid-60s (maybe LATE 60s…Who knows?!), gets about 4 hours of sleep on average, and is as fit physically and mentally as some 29 year olds. Maybe I should try getting to sleep at 3 am and waking at 7 am. Ha!
Roberta, your friend sounds a lot like me but I’m not quite as old though. Ha ha I’ve been working out ever since I was 14 – totally addicted to it now. 7 days a week. My friends always joke ‘they’ll never be able to bury you…you haven’t done your exercises yet’ lol.
On a serious note though, there’s a very interesting podcast on BBC Sounds concerning sleep. “Sleep Well” with Michael Mosley. 7 – 8 hours solid is not actually correct…
I’m just enjoying the happy banter. I’m not a social media person, but now that most racing is digested from home, i do miss the racetrack interaction. This is something of a substitute. Thanks.
I’m the same Todd. Just here to enjoy the fun of racing with fun people as well as reading Steve’s opinions on various things. There are plenty of other websites where you can read about all the dry side of racing.
Hit Show has been my top Derby horse from the get go, but drew the dreaded one hole for the race. He’ll need to break sharply and not be boxed in during the early going. His pedigree says he’ll relish 10 furlongs which should put him in contention in the late stretch run. Obviously, Hit Show will have to run the race of his life to beat this field of major players.
That said, if by chance Hit Show were to win the Derby, my Derby Futures bets in Pools 3,4 and 5 would pay handsomely.
I’ve indicated the payouts on the 2nd place finishers, starting with the highest to the lowest:
Sun Thunder, $36,570
Confidence Game, $27,850
Tapit Trice, $26,458
Two Phils, $20,998
Practical Move, $20,814
Rocket Can, $19,814
Verifying, $19,687
Jace’s Road, $16,740
Kingsbarns, $15,814
Angel of Empire, $15,430
Disarm, $15,411
Forte, $10.352
Safe trips to all.
I’ve been reading your works analyses for years Steve and have enjoyed success. I appreciate your dedication and love for this game. Over the years I’ve developed charts, studied, obsessed over dosage, etc. The year I took a flyer and won the trifecta on names alone was Barbaro’s Derby (they were all animal names) for a $11,500 win on my $12 bet! Needless to say I always throw in one hunch/name play each year just in case. 😉
Thanks very much Kelly. Good luck with yiur hunch bets this year.
I like Flying Connection for an Oaks longshot, but I do not like that Fincher thinks she needs the front, from the 10 post I would have preferred a stalking trip…if she can’t rate then Wet Paint will gobble her up….
4 furlongs in 49:3 by Derma Sotagake this morning.
Had to laugh, the older commentators questioned this work so close to the Derby.
Younger guy jumped in and said Japanese trainers know what they want and they do train differently.
The energy level this colt has is somewhat amazing to me considering he has traveled from Japan to Dubai and from Dubai to Kentucky.
Under a strong hold for the first 2 maybe 3 furlongs. Once the rider let go, I saw tremendous acceleration. He’s fit, very energized and does not look jet lagged at all. That work has convinced me his travel will not be an issue. He’s my horse. Best proven horse to get the distance and I don’t think he will get caught up in a fast pace. He may even be the one who sets it. Depends on how quickly some others like verifying kingsbarns and reincarnate want to go, but I don’t think he will run any faster than he wants to regardless of how those other potential pace horses run. SOLD! Now comes the hard part. Who will join him to the wire. Right now, I like AOE, Tapit Trice or Forte to run second and I’ll add Disarm, Confidence Game, and Two Phils, with Practical Move and Skinner added on the bottom end of ticket. Expensive ticket this year even if I single Derma on top which I intend on doing.
El Kabong, in total agreement with you about Derma Sotogake!
Do not think the 17 will be a problem for him.
My final list, that I have not yet commented on is very close to yours.
Lynda, I made my brother sit down with me to examine the running styles of who we considered to be the top 10 horses with an emphasis on not only their preferred placing throughout a race, but truly watching their body mechanics; stride, motion, head, lead change. There isn’t one who moved as gracefully as Derma Sotogake. His mechanics are so fluid and as I have pointed out before, he knows instinctively when to accelerate without any urging from his mount. He really seems to know about that turn for home and what that means. That being, time to separate from the herd. Good luck with your wagers and most importantly, a safe trip for all.
Practical Move is like that too.
Him Practical Move and Forte are my box. ex and trifecta
The only issue I see is Practical Move is slow out of the gate. Not an issue in small fields but in this stampede, it will lead to being shuffled back. He seems smart enough and fast enough to break that habit and he has to or he will be in trouble. Would love to see him do well or the West Coast is going to look weak. Never a fun notion but they DQ’d our boy Bob. Uncool. Good luck on Saturday Coach. This is going to be a fun race.
Ganbatsu te, Derma Sotogake!
Steve, Will you be making any changes to your week 13 top 12 in light of the post positions or is that your final overview and selections ?? As always THANK YOU for your insight.
No more Rankings Jim. I mention a few posts in my7\ analysis but they were peetty uneventful.
Steve,
Why are brad cox’s derby entrants all on the 4/25/23 Kentucky veterinarian list? They all appear to be coming off on 5/6/23. Cannot find an answer anywhere.
D
Thats a heckuva question
What is up with AOE being on the vet list? Worrying….
I believe many therapy treatments, such as chiropractic, which often involves injections, would go on Ky. vet list according to withdrawal period for race day.
Looks like all these are on vet’s list:
Angel of Empire
Hit Show
Jace’s Road
Wet Paint
Confidence Game
I’m assuming this has to do with some legal medication these horses were administered that must be out of their
system by race day or within 14 days. They will get checked and removed from list prior to the race. Not 100% sure.
Prior to the Kentucky Derby last year Mo Donegal, Charge It, and Barber Road had spent time on the Kentucky vet list. It may just be chiropractic work to medications as mentioned above. You won’t be given an answer on what or why though.
Davids, you are correct. I believe therapy, such as chiropractic, which involves insertion of needles, go on the Ky. vets list. If I recall, this was also an occurrence with the winner last year.
I should include acupuncture as a type of therapy involving insertion of needles, therefore reportable.
,
Any more info on this? The posters on FB this AM during the morning workout show were mentioning this issue, and one said that last year not one of the vet-listed entries did anything good in that Derby. Concerning as I love AOE.
IIR, Rich Strike could possibly have been on Ky. vet list for chiropractic treatment.
May have been acupuncture treatment on Rich Strike, but a reportable therapy.
SJ, yes Rich Strike was on Vets List last year for chiropractor treatments.
Typically I don’t look at post positions unless there is a race track bias OR the KD. When tapit trice drew post 5, my initial reaction was to toss TT. His lumbering ways will end his race by the first turn. I believe verifying will be sent from post 2. Reincarnate and Kingsbarn will show pace into the first turn. Once positions are established, verifying and reincarnate will be on the lead.
Maybe this is Pletcher’s year, but at low odds difficult to not to play against a trainer who’s 2 for 62?
Hey Jeff, I think post 5 for Tapit Trice is fine. He can easily draft behind the speed thats inside and outside of him. In the 2nd turn, he can turn it on while still near the rail. That’s just 1 strategy that might be employed.
Heads up, KD has corrected morning line for Jaces Road to 50-1 -per a tweet about 45 minutes ago.
The following odds by David Argona were posted on DRF. These make more sense.
1. Hit Show, Manny Franco, 30-1
2. Verifying, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
3. Two Phil’s, Jareth Loveberry, 15-1
4. Confidence Game, James Graham, 20-1
5. Tapit Trice, Luis Saez, 6-1
6. Kingsbarns, Jose Ortiz, 15-1
7. Reincarnate, John Velazquez, 20-1
8. Mage, Javier Castellano, 20-1
9. Skinner, Juan Hernandez, 12-1
10. Practical Move, Ramon Vazquez, 10-1
11. Disarm, Joel Rosario, 30-1
12. Jace’s Road, Florent Geroux, 50-1
13. Sun Thunder, Brian Hernandez Jr., 30-1
14. Angel of Empire, Flavien Prat, 8-1
15. Forte, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7-2
16. Raise Cain, Gerardo Corrales, 50-1
17. Derma Sotogake, Christophe Lemaire, 8-1
18. Rocket Can, Junior Alvarado, 30-1
19. Lord Miles, Paco Lopez, 30-1
20. Continuar, Ryusei Sakai, 50-1
AE21. Cyclone Mischief, Joel Rosario, 50-1
AE22. Mandarin Hero, Kazushi Kimura, 20-1
AE23. King Russell, Rafael Bejarano, 50-1
Odds by David Aragona
I think the high odds horse with the best chance of hitting the board is Sun Thunder. I loved his recent workout, love that he is crossed 5X to Damascus, and think McPeek was very unlucky last year with Epicenter. I also am thinking the pace will be more contested than the “experts” are predicting. Last year was fire, but why wouldn’t Jace’s Road, Verifying (due to PP), Reincarnate, and Derma (maybe even Kingsbarns?) try to get to the front when they think the rest are going to just chill and find position? I expect a wide open race, and a horse that has had several troubled trips with great breeding and McPeek as trainer has a legit shot.
Epicenter was trained by Asmussen, not McPeek.
Thanks for posting all this info here. Makes it so much easier on the eyes than looking at it on some other sites.
Can’t link to an URL or post pictures, but I sure can cut and paste! Thanks, Liam.
I believe that no horse has won the KD from pp #17 (0/43)…the only pp not to have won the Derby and look who now is positioned there.
You are correct John, no winner from 17.
Another way to look at it, no American horse has won from 17. Japan might break that curse.
Seriously I do not think that the outside posts 16 thru 20 are as bad now since the auxiliary hate is no longer being used.
I agree, Lynda. And I figure that for any given statistic–such-and-such has never happened–there’s always a first time!
When gate schooling last week DS did not like being pulled up at all. If Christorpher can’t get him to settle it will be a problem for him. TT drew great and Forte will end up having to run wide, maybe 4 out coming into the stretch. I do expect a close finish.
John, the highest placed runner out of gate 17 was Forty-niner who ran 2nd.
Just another little bit of trivia I read yesterday.
…and Forty Niner ran a winning race….I wouldn’t be at all concerned with the 17….not going to get banged around, natural speed to reach stalking position if you like the horse go for it!…my biggest Derby hit was on #19 I’ll Have Another, with the no name rider who gets most of his mounts from Paul Reddam….
Kentucky Oaks field
1 Mimi Kakushi 20-1
2 The Alys Look 15-1
3 Gambling Girl 15-1
4 Southlawn 8-1
5 Wonder Wheel 12-1
6 Botanical 4-1
7 Wet Paint 5/2
8 Promiseher America 30-1
9 And Tell Me Nolies 15-1
10 Flying Connection 15-1
11 Defining Purpose 12-1
12 Dorth Vader 20-1
13 Affirmative Lady 10-1
14 Pretty Mischievous 10-1
AE Taxed 20-1
AE Julia Shining 15-1
AE Hoosier Philly 30-1
It looks like the Kentucky Oaks is a wide open race. I don’t think Wet Paint is a lock by any means.
I have a question Lynda, the death of Havre De Grace really upset me. She was sone of my all time favorites. Please answer me this, is it normal for 16 year old mares to be giving birth. Isn’t that a little old? Plus the fact that she had previous complications while giving birth. Why would the owners put her at risk like that, I don’t understand. This was tragic but it was also preventable.
Thank you
Deacon
Hi Deacon.
It has been somewhat of an upside down year for the fillies. Wonder Wheel, Hoosier Philly and Julia Shining just did not live up to their potential in my opinion. I like Wet Paint and think she has a good chance to win the Oaks. I also like her stablemate, Botanical. Cannot really tell you why, but I also like Mimi Kakushi.
When I think about Harve De Grace, it still hurts.
In response to your question about her age. 16 is really not old for a broodmare. Most mares continue to safety produce healthy foals into their early 20’s. Somethingroyal was 18 when Secretariat was born and she had 5 more foals after him.
I do not know what Gracie’s issues were wirh previous pregnancies. She was healthy and a perfect weight during the entire gestation period. Age really had nothing to do with what happened however. Maiden mares can also hemorrhage and die after foaling. Cannot recall her name but Japan lost a champion mare from Europe, paid several million for her and she died while giving birth to her first foal. Royal Delta also died very young. Rachel Alexandra came very close to death after foaling Rachel Valentina.
One thing I am hearing about is foaling issues in mares who are bred to these big stallions (Justify as an example). Some of these foals are coming in at 165 pounds.
Saw a photo of her foal by Into Mischief. He is a big, healthy colt. Therin is the silver lining,
Thank you Lynda very much
Good luck on the Derby
Good luck to you too, Deacon!
We all need the luck that’s for sure. I am sticking with Angel of Empire to win. Throwing in a few others to bet the exotics. Forte is too good not to think he will hit the board. I will have Skinner in the mix along with Derma Sotogake & Practical Move.
A Japanese horse has never won the Derby so I am concerned about adding him to my selections. Like everything else, there is a 1st time for everything. 🙂
Kentucky Derby field
1 Hit Show 30-1
2 Verifying 15-1
3 Two Phil’s 12-1
4 Confidence Game 20-1
5 Tapit Trice 5-1
6 Kingsbarns 12-1
7 Reincarnate 50-1
8 Mage 15-1
9 Skinner 20-1
10 Practical Move 10-1
11 Disarm 30-1
12 Jace’s Road 15-1
13 Sun Thunder 50-1
14 Angel of Empire 8-1
15 Forte 3-1
16 Raise Cain 50-1
17 Derma Sotogake 10-1
18 Rocket Can 30-1
19 Lord Miles 30-1
20 Continuar 50-1
AE Cyclone Mischief 50-1
AE Mandarin Hero 20-1
AE KIng Russell 50-1
Battaglia usually does a good job with the ML. But Jace’s Road at 15-1? Reincarnate at 50-1? Battaglia was probably ready to make Hit Show 25-1, but Post 1 hiked the odds. I think Hit Show will be in the low 20s.
Roberta, do not have an answer but then you along with many others know more about these odds than I do.
I look at the odds of course but they are not a determining factor for me.
However, I did think 50-1 was off for Reincarnate.
His speed figures did drop for his recent races and looking at Equibase he works have been a little inconsistent.
Nothing listed on Equibase CHD, though he is there. Watched a brief video of his arrival.
That is typical of a Baffert trainee…to not ship until right before the Darby.
Tim did ship him in a little earlier than what Bob does normally.
Guessing these odds will change over the next few days.
Roberta please see post at the top.
Yes, it’s good to know that it was a mistake and the line-maker was relatively sober. Ha! But I don’t know how he predicts odds of 50-1 for Reincarnate. The colt was trained by Baffert, he has early speed, won the Sham, had a mess of trouble in the Rebel and still finished well, and was third to Angel of Empire in the Ark Derby. I would expect Reincarnate to go off at no more than 30-1. I feel the same way as you about ML odds. I just find them interesting like so many other details, trivial and otherwise, in the Derby.
Just checked to odds on Kentucky Derby dot com.
Reincarnate is still 50 to 1.
Aldo read some comments on other sites, some say he has not demonstrated that he has what it takes to win the Derby.
I guess for the handicappers he would be a good selection as a longshot to win.
Very curious what Steve has to say about all this.
Just guessing about what the post-time odds will be, and why. 50-1 is ridiculous. The Baffert connection is enough for Reincarnate’s odds to be much less than the ML.
Nice job slapping the cocktail out of the lushes hands. It’s for his own good! I’m still laughing at those odds. “I said fifty, not fifteen!” Bartender, give me a double and put it on Battaglia’s bill.
Cali horses drew well…..most of the speed drew inside, I see Verifying and Reincarnate making the front, 50-1 on Reincarnate seems high—Mage could work a nice trip settling off the leaders some, also Practical Move. .IF he breaks well, he has had his problems there…..Irad knows Forte, look for him to settle near Practical Move, in the top half—
In what has looked like an off year, for the fillies—Wet Paint looks solid, to me. …
Flying Connection is flying under the radar. ..took pressure from a Bob B filly, then held sway—comes out of the 10 post, with her smile speed, maybe an exacra box with Wet Paint..
Matthew, I think if Faiza was in the Oaks she’d romp in. Looks the best filly by a mile.
If Johnny V can get to the front on Reincarnate, then slow it down, he could make the Derby very interesting.
Just watched an interview with former jockey Rosie Naprovnick.
Three colts who impressed her the most in their workouts were Forte, Confidence Game and Verifying.
For the Oaks, Wet Paint.
I totally agree with her take on all 4.
She has not settled on final picks, waiting on the draw.
Forte does have that long, ground eating stride that cannot be denied.
I have watched all of his works and gallops and agree with Rosie. I think too he is very light on his feet, he seems to float across the track and his stride is so efficient, no wasted energy.
Of all the colts, in my opinion, he is in near perfect condition.
Very pleased for the connections for Confidence Game. He seems to have bloomed in the past couple of weeks and will be very competitive. I can see Ebby in him.
Hard to see works in CA, FL and NY from KY.
Lynda King–thanks for Rosie’s assessment of Derby and Oaks horses. Wouldn’t it be something Wet Paint and Forte won the Oaks and Derby? They both have Blame as their blood mare sire and we all know that he was bred by Claiborne Farm.
Wishing lots of luck with your picks on Oaks and Derby Day.
Hi Terri, I had the same thought about Blame in both pedigrees.
I pay a lot of attention to what Rosie thinks. In addition to being a former jockey, she has been a very accomplished horsewoam all of her life. I guess you know that she now takes OTTBs and retrains them for other horse sports.
She was also Shanghai Bobby’s jockey when he won the BC Juvenile.
Best of luck with your picks as well!
I have to agree with you and Rosie – I’ve seen the same thing in Forte. Confidence Game has been training lights out, and Verifying seems to have a great mind and is very athletic. I love the way Disarm has been training, too, but I think as much as he looks and moves like his sire, he will improve with age, like his sire. With all that said, it is all up to the Racing Gods now. I hope the Gods see a way to bring everyone home safely.
Hi Peg.
Hopefully the Racing Gods do bring them all home safe and sound!
I think the last workout was the best, by Confidence Game, but he needed it—hard to figure this guy, he certainly has bloodlines, being kin to the great Zenyatta, and if I’m not mistaken Balance won the Oaks, so he’s kin to some serious stamina. ..
Yes Matthew, great workout by Confidence Game but post 4 is a bit too close for me. Mind you, James Graham is an excellent jockey who inevitably gives his horses the best of chances. The start seems more important than ever in this year’s Derby. Let’s hope it’s a good start for all with a cleanly run race.
Whisper Hill Farm posted a photo on Twitter of Gracie’s Into Mischief’s foal with Mandy.
Such a beautiful foal, so healthy and strong.
He does! Hard to believe he’s only a few days old.
I love this group of 3 year olds as much as any field I can remember. Every now and then, I interrupt my intense study of the PPs and the replays of races and workouts and instead contemplate how beautiful and majestic these animals are. May they all have safe journeys to the Derby finish line…and beyond.
You have the right approach, Roberta. That beauty and majesty is what got many of us hooked in the first place. Certainly did for me!
I’m in that group too, Ms Blacktype.
It’s kind of sad that we have so much information from the various speed figures. In the past, we would have made our selections more visually. Since none of these horses have run fast, i’m going to trust my eyes and bet the horse with the most visually dominate performance, Angel of Empire. Many others have begun to train well and could jump up with a surprising effort, but i am set with my choice.
I’m not set this early, Todd, but I keep returning to Angel of Empire. He’ll most likely be my selection. I was looking at his PPs this morning and noticed that his only loss on dirt (2nd to a gate-to-wire winner) was preceded by a workout gap of 14 days. I don’t know why he missed a workout around Christmas day. He’s the only one of my 6 or 7 contenders I can’t find a flaw. Some might say his running style is a disadvantage in the Derby, but he’s never been more than 5 3/4 lengths behind after 4f. And the early fractions in his last three races have been fairly quick.
As the saying goes, Todd. Don’t change horses in midstream. Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice have looked the part to me and both have relatively good posts. You can talk yourself in and out of horse with all the information that is provided these days but your eyes don’t lie to you. Good luck.
That’s right Roberta. I love everything about the Kentucky Derby, the history, the pageantry, the preps, the emotions but I fear the race. Too many horses in a relatively smallish track.
I watched video of some workouts over the weekend. I hated the workout in company with Continuar and Derma Sotogake. Continuar was so lethargic and slow, it affected his workmate.
Not the workout I want to see from either horse if I were a supporter.
The post draw couldn’t have been worse either. Not for me either.
Earlyweather forecast for the KD…sunny with a high of 75….30% of showers on Friday though.
Harve de Grace now runs with the Heavenly Herd.
Heartfelt condolences.
Very sad. She produced a colt by Into Mischief just two days ago.
She hemorrhaged after giving birth, on the 29th and then on the 30th.
Her dam died at age 17 from hemorrhages after giving birth.
Previously she had foaling issues. Her last foal before this one was by Justify.
Have read that foals by these big stallions like Justify do result in problems for the mare.
Sometimes these mares suffer damage or weakening in the uterine wall with a large foal and will bleed out the next time. Not saying this what happened to her, but it happened several times to my dear two friends who raised Arabians.
She fought to the end to live for her foal.
They are just amazing mothers, much better than some human mothers.
Gracie was such a lovely mare. Just a terribly sad loss. She was one of my favorites when she was racing.
Could not ask for a better home than what she had with Mandy Pope. I am sure they did everything they could to save her.
The foal is by Into Mischief and is doing well and the nurse mare has accepted him.
So sad to hear about Harve de Grace. She was a superb racehorse and Linda, your words about how she fought to live for her foal broke my heart.
Lynda, yes I was very, very saddened to hear the news yesterday. Havre de Grace was always a favorite of mine, and what a beautiful mare she was! I was a fan of her sire, Saint Liam, and gravitated to her early on because of that. Such sad, sad news. She was a warrior on the track and as well, as a mother.
Beth, lovely comment. You have beautifully expressed how so many felt about her.
Thanks again Lynda. I didn’t realize that Havre de Grace’s dam had died at the same age. And her sire died in a freak stall accident at Lane’s End. Poor sweet girl. She was so talented and smart.
I wonder if there is a way to contact her former trainer Larry Jones. He loved her so. I used to adore it when he rode her on the track and they stopped to watch the other horses train. She and Larry Jones had such a loving bond.
Harve de Grace was a champion….both as a HOY and a an older female racehorse. She was something special. But I’ll always believe that her nemesis, Blind Luck, was the better horse between these two fantastic horses.
That said, thanks for the memories Havre de Grace.
BECAUSE OF ALL THE SECRETARIAT 50TH ANNIVERSARY FESTIVITIES AND ALL THAT HAS TO GO ON THIS WEBSITE, WE HAVE CANCELED TOMORROW’S WORKOUT COLUMN, WHICH WILL BE INCOPORATED INTO THE FINAL HANDICAPPING COLUMN THAT SHOULD BE POSTED WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. IF WEDNESDAY IT WILL START OFF IN THE BLUE SPACE.
SO FOR NOW i WILL JUST LET YOU KNOW THE HORSES WHOSE WORKS THIS WEEK REALLY CAUGHT MY EYE, STARTING OFF WITH DISARM, WHO HAS BOUNCED OUT OF THE LEXINGTON LOADED FOR BEAR. HIS WORK AND ALL HIS GALLOPS HAVE SHOWN HE IS A HORSE WHO ACTUALLY NEEDED THE LEXINGTON AND IS THRIVING JUST LIKE THE TOUGH HORSES FROM YEARS AGO WHO GOT BETTER WITH RACING AND TRAINING. HE COULD NOT HAVE WORKED ANY BETTER AND IS DOING EVERYTHING PERFECTLY LIKE A HORSE WHO IS SITTING ON A BIG RACE.
ALTHOUGH i STILL CAN’T BET HIM OFF A MYSTERIOUS 10-WEEK LAYOFF I HAVE TO SAY CONFIDENCE GAME LOOKED AWESOME IN HIS WORK AND WAS JUST GLIDING OVER THE TRACK, GALLOPING OUT VERY STRONG.
THE OTHER WORKS I LOVED WERE FROM TAPIT TRICE, ANGEL OF EMPIRE, TWO PHIL’S (AT HAWTHORRNE) AND SKINNER’S LAST TWO 6F WORKS AT SANTA ANITA. THAT HORSE IS FIT, SHARP, AND READY TO DO SOMETHING BIG, ALSO PRACTICAL MOVE HAS BEEN WORKING FAST AND DOING IT VERY EASILY.
That insightful info is encouraging for the long-shot players (i.e., workouts of Disarm, ConGame, Two Phil’s, and Skinner). For those hoping for a more conservative selection that isn’t named Forte, you’ve offered sufficient confirmation of the merits of Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, and Practical Move. I’m very much looking forward to the handicapping column.
Roberta, I’m getting jittery over the upcoming post position draws. Fingers crossed.
Me too, Davids. So much is left to chance.
Phew, the post draw went pretty good for the 4 I like at this stage. How about you?
All systems go, Davids!
Thanks for the heads up. I cannot wait to read your final thoughts after the post position draw on Monday! We are all systems go to head to Louisville for the Derby! Thanks for another wonderful spring full of your insights and stories about these magnificent creatures and their connections.
Have a wonderful trip and good luck
Thanks Steve. Agree with you on every horse especially about Confidence Game which was a surprise. Forte is not supposed to be a dazzling morning worker but his record is the best. Rosie Napravnik really likes Forte’s work though. Looks like a very competitive Kentucky Derby.
In the Newmarket English 2,000, also this Saturday, I like the chances of Paddington, if he runs, of upsetting his more fancied stable chums while on Sunday at Newmarket, Tahiyra should win the English 1,000 Guineas easily but she isn’t a certainty to start there either. Both could be waiting for the Irish versions or possibly the French versions. Weather always plays apart at this time of year.
Aidan O’Brian is very high on Auguste Rodin winning the English Triple Crown this year which would be something to cheer about. Meanwhile, also on Saturday, another spectacle will be going ahead, King Charles III’s coronation will be full of pomp and circumstance.
Looks as though Paddington is going to run in the Irish EBF Tetrarch Stakes, May 1, then the Irish 2,000 Guineas on May 27, 2023.
Thanks for the update David.
Steve, Paddington won the Tetrarch Stakes quite impressively so the Irish 2,000 Guineas looks the plum race for him depending on the weather. Improving in every race.
Good news, Tahiyra is definitely going to run in the English 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday, May 7 so the fun keeps on bubbling along this weekend. Allez Tahiyra!!
The Thinker side of me says Auguste Rodin will not win the English Triple Crown, but I would Kiss a crocodile if that would make it happen.
I usually lurk, rather than comment, as I’m between computers and doing everything from a smartphone. But I had to poke out of the shadows to appreciate that excellent pun, Roberta!
Ha ha! Thanks, Ayley.
Roberta, very clever. Ha ha Imagine “The Thinker” suddenly arising to cheer on his maker’s namesake in the St Leger Stakes as Auguste Rodin strides to the front with only 50 feet to the wire.
As long as Auguste Rodin can win the English 2,000 Guineas, I ‘think’ he might just take the Triple Crown so polish up a nice little crocodile in anticipation. Splash on plenty of red lipstick. Ha ha
Ha ha ha!
For now: Forte, Practical Move, Verifying, Hit Show, Tapit Trice, Mage (purely a wild card, hope he wins!) Maybe Rocket Can who is a tall horse, had a good workout, has a trainer who often surprises. May add Two Phil’s, he looks bulky though, but have to reduce, not add! Dropped Angel of Empire, just a hunch Verifying is Brad C’s best, followed by Hit Show. Derma too rank lately, may settle down.
Tapit Trice and Hit Show take care of the closing. Others in front of them. There are seven just off the pace runners in this race, pace won’t be slow.
I don’t play Oaks Day much, like to wait till Sat, but intend to wheel the Oaks field to Skinner and Mage, I hope you’re right— as for bulky size I’ve seen 10 furlong Gr1 fields up close, for decades, you WANT size! Ten furlongs dirt you want a 1200 lb horse, for turf it’s entirely different, but on dirt, the hard races demand a strong animal—The Derby is a race that can be injurious, to a slender horse like Rocket Can, who could get banged around like a pinball—I’m using Two Phil’s in my 6-horse box because of his size, and the way he came away from Major Dude, who is a good horse in his own right..
By bulky I mean overweight. Others I think are overweight are Disarm and Skinner. It means miler a lot of times. I can’t put it any simpler.
A lot if not most Derbys of the last 15 years have been won by slender horses, meaning horses who weren’t bulky, doesn’t mean they were skinny. Rocket Can is fine, he’s tall, doesn’t look like a waif as you’ve implied, he was banged around in 2nd last prep, his problem is may not be fast enough. Tapit Trice is large and looks heavy but isn’t too bulky in my eyes. He also closed fast and won his races.
I had Two Phil’s and Angel on my win list, but they’ve become wise guy horses, who lose more often than favorites. I might put them back in, not sure.
How is AoE a “wise guy” horse? He’ll be a 3rd or 4th favorite and deserves to be. There’s nothing hidden about his record…nothing that needs to be interpreted as positive signs. He won the Risen Star, which has produced top Derby runners since its distance was increased to 9f. In the Arkansas Derby, arguably the strongest of the final preps, he made a bold wide move around the final turn, assumed the lead into the stretch, and won by daylight. His figures are improving with each race. He’s a serious racehorse, and it doesn’t take a “wise guy” to see that he has a solid chance to be the Derby winner.
I don’t think he’ll be 3rd or 4th favorite, he’ll be double digits. My assessment is just a gut feeling based on his sudden development. He’s still green and may be over eager. 9 f. isn’t 10 f. I won’t say much more than that and may put him back on my list, depending on post position and reviewing my picks again. This is my assessment, it’s not an exact science. I do think his sudden popularity makes him a wise guy pick, same with Two Phil’s.
This isn’t about who can make the best argument, or mug for the camera with clever sayings and lead-ins, or who’s good at cutting someone down or who’s the most confident. I can write too but that’s not what it’s about. It’s about picking winners, and 2nd-4th if you play superfectas. I think it’s a good year for the All button.
As long as they’re nimble ‘massive’ horses, often tall/massive horses’ races are over if they get stopped once or twice.
Huge drop in odds for Confidence Game: on Bookmaker, he was +3498 yesterday, was +2700 this morning; just checked again, now he is +1650! I know he had strong fast work, but drop in odds is huge!
Looking forward to post position draw tomorrow!
Correction: +1615
At this point, one week out from the Derby, I usually feel pretty confident I’ve picked the winner. Not this year. Forte looks the part and has done little wrong but he’s just plain slow. Yes, maybe he only does enough to win and has lot’s more in the tank, but I’m a numbers person and his numbers say “NO”. From a pedigree standpoint, it’s hard not to bet Confidence Game but it’s been too long since his last start, though he did just put in a pretty impressive work. I’ll likely be laughed off the blog for my #1 pick as Japan has never even come close in previous tries at the Derby, but I can’t help but be impressed with Derma Sotogake. The fact he wasn’t fazed by the hooplah of the Dubai World Cup card tells me he can handle Churchill Downs on Derby Day.
Good point on Derma, Robin M.
Has anyone else noticed the way Derma is constantly tilting his head to the side? He seems to be unhappy with the bridle/bit setup or something else is going on, but he doesn’t look comfortable.
I’ve noticed his behavior, too. But maybe he’s always been that way.
The Thorograph guys like Tapit Trice, Verifying, Derma Sotogake…he also said Skinner has a rising chart—-as for Forte and Practical Move…he said both have not improved at all, this year….so….if they are right then I will not be hitting the trifecta, cuz I have none of their top three…..
I think Forte and Practical Move are the top two—Thorograph says they haven’t done as well this year? They both won their two starts!.
Forte is one smart cookie and only runs as fast as he needs to win the race.
Don’t worry, Matthew. I counted eight Derby winners (incl. Maximum Security) since 2000 that took a step back, by TG #s, in their last preps.
I thought when I saw the slower work before the SA Derby that Tim wanted his horse to not peak—before the Derby….now comes the penultimate:47 half, against Kangaroo Court then the :59 2/5 I think he knows a little sonething, having gone to four Derbies with Whittingham and BB…last year he had a horse that has fallen apart (Messier) and a horse that was rushed (Taiba) this year its TIM’s horse, and he has done pretty well with his big chance horse—I am rooting for Tim and Millie, they have reached the top of the mountain now comes the last hundred feet to the peak!..
PM is one of my favorites. I’m worried about his ability to come out of the gate cleanly in a 20-horse field. He certainly needs to be prominently positioned when they come out of the first turn.
Agreed, no easy rail trip this time, and he is a bad breaker, but I have come to love Ramon Vasquez, who is a terrific rider! Yesterday he won four, each one different each one a terrific ride! It would not surprise me were he to wear the rose blanket!..
Yes, Matthew. I have no problem at all with Vasquez.
Highest pointgetter in the European Road to the Kentucky Derby, Brave Emporer whose connections opted to not enter the Kentucky Derby (due to costs of getting to Louisville) won the Group 3 Dr. Busch-Memorial, 1700 meter, at Krefeld, Germany today.
BrudderA, nice pedigree. I certainly think he would have been competitive in the KD.
There was at least one other colt that bypassed the Derby because of the expense getting to Louisville.
Connections were quoted as saying before going to Germany, “Trip-wise, 10 furlongs might be a question mark, but certainly nine furlongs we are of the opinion is no problem; it is almost nine furlongs in Germany and we’re confident about that.” They made a wise decision.
Brave Emperor (Sioux Nation–Roman Gal, by Holy Roman Emperor) is one of quite a few by Sioux Nation that are doing his sire proud.
Strong work for Two Phil’s at Hawthorne.
I dream of a David & Goliath stretch duel with Forte. 🙂
Speaking of David—Am hoping our Davids is OK, he seems to be “missing”—Hope you are all right, my friend..
All is well, Matthew. Thank you for your concern. I had to attend an unexpected funeral interstate. I’ll be home again next week when things will return to a more peaceful time. All the best.
My condolences, Davids.
Thank you, Roberta.
David’s
I am so sorry for your loss.
Thank you, Terri.
My condolences, Davids, on your loss. If needed, you can count on us for support.
Thank you, Dewey for the kind words. Yes, this community is a wonderful place to escape to from the ravages of the real world. Full of hopes and dreams for a thoroughbred.
Yes, Davids, I agree that this is a good place to escape to and discuss the thoroughbred. I’ve enjoyed our group of horse enthusiasts and have learned so much from this knowledgeable community, including you. Falling in love with the racehorse has given me both ecstasy and despair, but I will always continue to pursue the dream. Indeed, horseracing has taught me valuable life lessons, including patience, hard work, resilience and hope, to name a few. As my late racing buddy, Chet, used to say, “there’s always another race to be run”.
p.s. Good luck in the pp draw!
Dewey, you make some excellent observations which I can relate to so well. You are always too impatient in your 20s and 30s and it’s not until you are in your 40s and over that you learn to truly appreciate things or understand things more fully.
Yes, fingers crossed in post draws tomorrow. Hopefully, Tapit Trace gets a post between 7 to 15, most of the other runners should be ok unless they get 1 – 3 or 17 – 20. Good luck.
Phew, Dewey!! Five is ok for Tapit Trice, he should be able to follow the colts around him in a slipstream around the first corner then get a descent position – 3 wide or so. From there it’s up to him, he has the talent to beat this field.
Forte has the best looking coat. I can’t see him out of the exacta. Going to be very tough to beat.
I remember thinking, before I knew the injury was catastrophic, that maybe the gelding was lucky. It was better that he get hurt in a workout instead of in the Kentucky Derby with its over-crowded twenty-horse field, where it would be harder for the jockey to pull the horse up, and maybe cause other horses to get hurt. How wrong I was, at least for Wild on Ice. Out of curiosity, I looked at his pedigree and noticed how very inbred he was. Multiple crosses to Nearctic through Wild Again and two different Northern Dancer sons. Wild Again was a son of Icecapeade, a half-brother to the ill-fated Ruffian. Another Icecapeade son, Canadian Triple Crown winner Izvestia, also died on the track after breaking down in a race. I hope that the owner makes a sounder cross with his mare, thanks to Wild on Ice.
I remember thinking, before I knew the injury was catastrophic, that maybe the gelding was lucky. It was better that he get hurt in a workout instead of in the Kentucky Derby with its over-crowded twenty-horse field, where it would be harder for the jockey to pull the horse up, and maybe cause other horses to get hurt. How wrong I was, at least for Wild on Ice. Out of curiosity, I looked at his pedigree and noticed how very inbred he was. Multiple crosses to Nearctic through Wild Again and two different Northern Dancer sons. Wild Again was a son of Icecapeade, a half-brother to the ill-fated Ruffian. Another Icecapeade son, Canadian Triple Crown winner Izvestia, also died on the track after breaking down in a race. I hope that the owner makes a sounder cross with this mare, thanks to Wild on Ice.
He just turned 3 on March 04.
Described as a colt with just so much heart.
Injury was fracture left hind. Happened after he finished his work. Examination at the surgical hospital in Lexington determined that he could not be saved.
Just heartbreaking. Not sure I can follow the rest of the colts or even watch the Derby at this point.
Oh the tears, my heart aches for everyone.
More info, he was taken to Rood and Riddle.
His owner gave the most beautiful response…. greatful, for what his horse enabled him to achieve, in the sport, greatful, that it happened with enough time for another horse to enter the race….a humble owner, in a sad atmosphere that counts his blessings, and he loved his horse …
Yes, Matthew his remarks were so heartfelt, so sincere and filled with gratitude for where the colt had taken him.
As sad as this is, take some comfort it didn’t happen on race day. It would have been much harder on the horse with all of that madness going on. Nobody likes to put a horse down but I am sure he was made comfortable and the owner’s comments afterwards were heartfelt indeed. It does dampen the derby but the rest have worked hard to get there.
Laura, it is never easy to put a horse down regardless of the situation.
Sometimes you cannot save them even with the best care.
I read on another site that it was a very bad fracture.
Just know all too well from my personal experiences how very hard this was for them.
We can go from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows with our horses in a heartbeat.
As this happened on the track there should be a necropsy done I would think. Perhaps something good could come of it. As sad as Ruffian was there were a lot of improvements in vet care later and the same with Barbaro. From what checking I was able to do there are several bones involved with the hock. I was curious as more familiar with pastern/fetlock injuries being reported in racing.
What I found was some have to be put down right away or even after corrective surgery. Others recover with rest all depending on where the break was.
Regardless of the animal it is never easy to put one down. The best thing I have found is to be there with them.
Hello Laura Lee.
Yes Ruffian’s surgery did result in improvements in the anesthesia that is given.
Barbaro succumbed to laminitis, not the surgeries for his complex fracture.
There was also the pool they wake up in. If they thrash around as Ruffian did, they will not injure themselves like she did.
I saw a still photo of Wild on Ice. It just popped up on Twitter. Just looked at it quickly. He was holding his leg up like Barabaro did.
Also read that that Wild on Ice walked on the horse ambulance under his own power but his leg was not bandaged. That is very unusual.
Recovery from a fracture, even a bad one is possible.
The Player had multiple bones broken. He was taken to Louisiana U as I recall. It took him a long time to heal. He was in hospital for quite awhile. He stands at stud and has sired a few foals.
Guess he was one of the lucky ones. No infections or laminitis.
One of mine I had to put down fractured a vertebra in her back. My beloved Arabian fractured his pelvis.Even if I had the money there was no hope for either one. My rescue that I had to put down this past January had a hip fracture.
You are so right, best you can do is hold their head in your lap and comfort them.
It never gets any easier though.
Barbaro brought a lot of attention to racehorse injuries and yes it was laminitis, but they learned from it.
The other interesting note U saw was conditioning to help strengthen that joint. That type of flexibility training at the track only done by the Japanese.
I remember thinking, before I knew the injury was catastrophic, that maybe the gelding was lucky. It was better that he get hurt in a workout instead of in the Kentucky Derby with its over-crowded twenty-horse field, where it would be harder for the jockey to pull the horse up, and maybe cause other horses to get hurt. How wrong I was, at least for Wild on Ice. Out of curiosity, I looked at his pedigree and noticed how very inbred he was. Multiple crosses to Nearctic through Wild Again and two different Northern Dancer sons. Wild Again was a son of Icecapeade, a half-brother to the ill-fated Ruffian. Another Icecapeade son, Canadian Triple Crown winner Izvestia, also died on the track after breaking down in a race.
With the Derby horse breakdown, and the turf course issues, Churchill Downs is about to get the Santa Anita scrutiny, which I do not wish on anyone….
JJ Hernandez on Skinner, horse has a big kick—it’s not a long one but he can turn a quick quarter, JJ needs to get positioned for a quarter mile run—stay cleat and come with that burst, and see what happens, methinks Forte and Practical Move are going to do battle—with Skinner, Mage, Kingsbarns, Two Phil’s I’ve narrowed it to six!!!!!!!!
Do we know if Shirreffs made travel arrangements for Skinner?? He was kinda on the fence a few days ago.
Great write up Steve; will your rankings change with Skinner eligible?
Rankings are over but yes they would have
Taking Espinosa off really surprised me. He has had considerable experience riding their. The moment may not be to big for JJ to handle. It appears this was the owners call.
Espinosa has not had a good win percentage this year. I am sure that is the reason behind it.
As one of Skinner’s ardent supporters, I take no satisfaction in his qualifying to enter the Derby under these circumstances. It’s sad to lose a race horse to a fatal injury, but especially poignant when your horse, Wild On Ice, is euthanized while preparing for the biggest race of his life. Condolences to the owner, trainer and jockey for a dream lost.
Well said Dewey! No one likes to see circumstances as what happened today!
Last year there weren’t many injuries (if any) this year has come one, and it’s a doozy, bad news indeed..
Wild on Ice euthanized.
Condolences to his connections and all who loved and cared for him.
Certainly casts a long shadow on the Derby.
Oh that’s very sad to hear! The emotional rollercoaster of horseracing……..
Terrible news. 🙁
So sorry to hear this, Lynda! Feel terrible, especially for the folks who thought they were going to the Derby for the first time.
Wild on Ice suffers injury during workout this morning and vanned off.
All I can find is injury to left hind leg, not saying what yet.
Just read an update from TDN. He was evaluated at CHD and has been sent to surgical facility in Lexington.His Jockey and trainer are going with him. No word on injury. Hope he will be OK.
Out of the Derby, Skinner is in.
Yep. Sorry to see this happen. Also, it would have been the trainer’s (Joel Marr) first Derby starter and the jockey, Ken Tohill, would have been the oldest jockey, age 60 (according to the DRF) to have ridden in the KD.
I have eliminated two horses watching workout videos-Hit Show coming out of a super slow prep, just got worked by stablemate and not surprisingly the Japanese horse Continuar. His work was a low level claimer at Anita. He should be scratched for a better horse to run waiting on list. Hope the owners aren’t selfish and run Continuar.
+100 your thoughts on Continuar. Step aside.
Toss Hit Show at your own peril.
Agreed. Hit Show will be on my tri bets. Love me some Candy Ride runners!
Recent workout videos on the top Derby contenders can be viewed on Twinspires “2023 Kentucky Derby contender workouts.
The rider on Hit Show had him on a strangle hold in the early part of the workout, along side Verifying. Both hit the wire together in 1:01.00 for the 5 furlong work. However, during the gallop out Verifying appeared to have the edge. Hit Show appears to be on the small side, as compared to Verifying.
I thought Rocket Can had a very impressive work by himself.
At some point you need to stop looking and decide right? I think that time has come for me. Moving onto the Kentucky Oaks now.
Final derby rankings…
#1 – Two Phil’s – I just think he ran the fastest prep (taking each quarter into account), and looked to have a ton left after the wire.
#2 – Forte – Think he ran the second fastest prep (by my same measurement), and he’s just a beast, will be very tough to beat.
Also, did Steve happen to mention this exacta specifically in this week’s column? Hmmm 🙂
The bet…
$255 Total
100 Win – Two Phil’s = 100
100 Place – Two Phil’s = 100
8 Exacta – Two Phil’s > Forte = 8
Backups
20 Exacta – Forte > Two Phil’s = 20
1 Trifecta – Forte > Two Phil’s > All = 18
.50 Trifecta – Forte > All > Two Phil’s = 9
Gosh if this comes in…
Here is my finish….Two Phil’s, Forte, Derma or Disarm. I need to figure out how to play this.
Jose Ortiz will ride Kingsbsrn on Saturday.
He is the leading candidate to ride the colt in the Derby, however, the final decision will be nade on Saturday after consultation with Spendthrift
Edit: Kingsbarn
It is actually Is KINGSBARNS, took me some to get it correct.
Thank you.
Steve – I watched Sun Thunder’s workout today, and he seemed to rattle off 0.12s and seemed comfortable doing it. That caused me to check into his pedigree. He is a five cross to Damascus, which reminded me of your brilliant article on that incredible horse that you wrote back in 2009. I just found it in the archives and re-read it. You are such a brilliant writer while at the same time being down to earth letting the subject of your story shine. Down the rabbit hole further, I learned that his grandsire was more of a speed horse named “My Babu”. I gave that same nickname to my second daughter, although I spelled it Baboo. Thanks for making the journey to the Derby so enjoyable. Looks like I will have to make a small wager on the descendent of “My Baboo”…
I would post your piece on Damascus here, but am not sure if you like giving your former employer clicks!
I’ve noticed that the Churchill track sometimes has a thick (>3/4″) layer of loose, stirred up dirt on it. Is that what’s referred to as “cuppy”? Then other times, the track looks “tight”, with only a thin layer of loose dirt and the workouts look better. Does anyone know what causes this variation in the top layer? It can’t just be useage.
It’s not the loose dirt on top, it’s the tendency of the track to fall away from under the horse’s hooves while they’re running. It’s particularly bad when the track is very dry as it was in 2020 when the Kentucky Derby was run late in the year because of covid. The effect of this is less on horses that have more turf-like conformation as they tend to have a larger hoof span and more stability on that type of track, which could help to explain why turf horses tend to do better than expected in the race. Horses who have the smaller hooves associated with pure dirt horses have a harder time keeping their footing and are fighting the track at the same time as trying to go forward at speed. Their race is compromised and they can be sore for a long time afterwards.
Thanks for responding. I’m pretty sure we’re saying much the same thing. The dirt on top is loose or it wouldn’t fall away when the hooves make contact. But sometimes at CD, the loose layer is thinner and the horses don’t sink in as much, no matter what horse it is. Walking on thick loose sand at the beach you get a sense of how it could be bad for ankles. Forte’s dam was a turfer, he should be okay, they said he had no problems with it.
Kevin Kerstein (CD Publicity Mgr), said Forte has grown a tremendous amount physically since the Florida derby, thinks his best race is coming up in the derby.
Hope it’s mostly muscle and sinew in the legs and chest! They need to let him cut loose for part of the last workout so he doesn’t forget what he’s supposed to do. Not a fan of strangleholds without end.
Practical Move should be 4 lengths off of a 1:11 pace, then we shall see ….last three races he has kept on going–and gallops out like he will handle the 10th furlong—and size wise, he’s probably the biggest….he’s built like a four year old….my warm wishes for Tim, and Millie, two wonderful ambassadors, to the sport..
Practical Move certainly has the pedigree to go long. Look at the bottom of his pedigree, it’s inundated with stamina.
Hi Steve…
Another awesome column, good sir! Great story about Sea Hero! Allow to me share mine, I was at the old Suffolk Downs just north of Downtown Boston the day of the ’93 Derby and they used to have this handicapping seminar before the card in between the grandstand and the clubhouse co-hosted by a then 26-year old track announcer Larry Collmus who had gone on to bigger and better as horse race caller for NBC Sports and current Thoroughbred Daily News scribe T.D. Thornton. T.D. was wearing a purple suit that day and he was touting Sea Hero for the Derby, a lot of us thought he was off his rocker for wearing that purple suit and for picking him to win considering his previous win before the Derby was the ’92 Champagne and hadn’t done much leading up to Louisville that May, including a fourth in the Florida Derby and Blue Grass… Well, we all know what happened.
Thanks very much JG. And thanks for sharing that. T.D. is very sharp. I wonder what made him love Sea Hero so much.
Continuar this AM was unimpressive vs Derma S, was asked and we’ll beaten, and he is in…..Derma also was being asked, he noticeably quickened…
Although in company, Continuar worked 4f in :50 flat while Derma Sotogake worked 5f in 1:01:4.
Matthew W and Dewey, please keep in mind that the Japanese train horses differently than American trainers.
The jury is still out as far as I am concerned until I hear what their trainers have to say.
Continuar is better looking.
Following some of Steve’s guidelines I would say that Practical Move (47 for 4F at SA) and Verifying (5F in 1:01 at CD) are the most impressive workouts so far…
I am still believing that Japanese horses need more time to acclimatize…!
Practical Move was inside of Kangaroo Court….a fleet Cal bred that has run two sub-1:09 this year. ..
Kangaroo Court is indeed a very fast Cal-Bred. I believe he’s being pointed to the Pat Day Mile.
I hope Continuar is scratched. Cyclone Mischief deserves to be in this race.
This column comes at a perfect time and a welcome respite from moving preparations, so thank you very much. My mother picked her Derby horse by watching him/her move during the post parade. She attended college on an equestrian scholarship and knew more about horses than any person I knew. She picked Proud Clarion, Canonero II, and interestingly enough, forecast
Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed to win the Triple Crown after watching how they won the Derby. The last trip we made to Churchill Downs in April 2003, she brought $20 with her to bet. She went home with over $100.
Thanks Sharon. I sure hope your mother taught you what she knew. Picking Canonero might have been the greatest pick of all time
And the pick of Proud Clarion, one of the field, to beat Damascus ? Surely, that rates right up there with the Canonero pick, the Venezuelan invader no one had heard of before the 1971 Derby. I saw Proud Clarion win watching from the upper deck boxes, but could not hear the call the roar of the crowd was so deafening as a rank outsider, grouped in the field for betting purposes, beat Damascus and Barb’s Delight before a stunned multitude. Took me a couple of minutes to figure out who won.
Steve – Great overview of an important part of thoroughbred racing. To put the pedigree records aspect in the proper perspective, it should be noted that Man o’ War — with his continuing powerful pedigree presence after 100 years — appears multiple times in ALL of the pedigrees of the top 23 derby point getters, including 25 appearances in Forte’s, 42 in Tapit Trice’s, and an astounding 49 in Kingsbarns’. Even Derma Sotogake carry’s Man op’ War’s blood! Dave
The great John Nerud always looked for Man o’War in pedigrees especially through War Admiral. You sure do your research.
War Admiral and Princequillo were super stamina producing broodmare sires. Their powerful bloodlines will live on forever.
Steve, thank you so much! This is one of your best EVER columns! Post Derby is a bit of a let down because it’s OVER but the two weeks leading up to race is so rich because of the information you just shared. There’s so much to take in but it’s all things we love so much about the sport in trying to determine the outcome. You are to the sport what Clive Davis was/is to the music industry!
Thanks very much Tex.
So what do you think is going on with selecting a jockey for Kingsbarns? I thought Johnny V would be a perfect fit but he went elsewhere.
Very odd unless Todd knows about a big horse coming out. I dont know why he hasnt gotten Jose Ortiz. If nothing is announced tomorrow I’ll try my contacts with Spendthrift and see whats
going on .
Could it be Kingsbarns himself who’s coming out?
Kingsbarns has been very strong in his gallops. Hes looking good.
Thanks. I read Jose Ortiz is the leading candidate for jockey, will decide after trainer talks to owner, wonder why it’s taking so long, he’s been available the whole time.
I read someone saying Angel of Empire does not look good, said Verifying outworked him but I did not see the work….is it possible the Kingsbarn group is waiting for Prat to become available?….
Hes been going out early each morning for leisurely gallops.
There’s a YT channel I just found in which all career starts of the Derby runners are compiled. The channel name is Discovering Horse Racing if anyone is interested.
Thank you fuzzi. I will check it out.
Just watched several videos of works and gallops from the last three days. Forte was by far the most impressive — and I watched him right after watching Tapit Trice. Also was very impressed with Practical Move’s work (what I could see of it — it happened on the backstretch and was shot across the track). As for Derma Sotogake, he looks like a 4-year-old! He definitely has all the tools but was acting like a kid playing all over the track on a recent gallop. Not sure what to make of that.
Ms. Blacktype, Derma Sotogake was out for a gallop and he was just full of himself and having fun. He appears to really like Churchill. His serious work will be tomorrow morning between 7:00 – 8:00 am. You can see it live on You Tube (Kentucky Derby Works).
Buglar, sound Reveille!
I will most definitely check it out!
Ms B, one of the reasons I like Forte is his consistency and I think his works so far have demonstrated that.
Irad is not my favorite person but he and Forte seem to have connected.
Forte is very light on his feet and has a very efficient stride that does not waste energy.
Have watched several interviews about Derma Sotogake and Continuar.
Continuar is a very relaxed colt and very easy going. DS only beat Continuar by a head in one of their confrontations.
DS gets fired up when he is on the track and has tons of energy. He is however well behaved in the barn.
Watched a couple videos of the two of them on the track when they first arrived at CHD. LOL, thought it was Continuar who was the one playing around, turns out it was DS.
Another comment was that the closer they get to race day, the workouts will be more serious.
Very informative info. Thanks. I haven’t been able to watch any workouts and how the horses workout, whether in the company of another horse or not, but I still remember how John Shirreffs perfected the tag team and sometimes the 3 horse set workouts with Zenyatta-chasing one horse for a few furlongs and then engaging another fresh horse as target a few furlongs later….and then perhaps a third fresh horse.
Big congratulations to Arrogate, California Chrome and Songbird being voted into the Racing National Hall of Fame along with Corey Nakatani!
Mr Rick Porter must be overjoyed in Heaven.
Steve Haskin–
Thanks for sharing your vast knowledge of thoroughbreds, training methods, horse racing, and your insights.
I didn’t follow horse racing for years after Secretariat’s Triple Crown. Then I fell in love with Barbaro when I saw him on TV before the Preakness. As I live close to where Barbaro made his runs prior to the Derby, at Calder Race Track and at Gulfstream,’ I promised myself to follow horse back racing in South Florida.
It was a few years before Big Brown was in his allowance race at Gulfstream. When I saw Big Brown in allowance race at Gulfstream, I knew he was something special. He was a big, beautiful, professional, very mature, and a push button horse. When he stepped onto the show ring and the track he commanded attention. Big Brown had the IT factor and won from the furthest outside posts in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby.
You know what has always done well for me in addition to the solid Churchill works? The fabled middle move. That breathtaking middle move that not all horses have. Animal Kingdom showed that in the Spiral and I said, I’m done looking this year. My biggest single race score ever. Now this year I am on Kingsbarns and while he has not shown that exact move I don’t think he has had to and I believe that he has it. Forte has it. But the most impressive one I have seen all year came from Mage. Another very lightly raced horse, but I just follow what my eyes tell me.
I saw Kingsbarns’ maiden win and I was very impressed and even bet futures on him in February and I’ve only done that one other time in my life. Now as long as he makes the gate, I am lucky to have him at Long odds and on top of exactas with just about half the field. Crazy.
Anyway, great stuff as usual, Steve. Always a pleasure to read.
Kingsbarns sure is a good looking horse! One to watch, and closely—this year’s enigma! Yes, he put them to sleep with a soft pace but that’s not his fault! 2023 is a tough year….
Fabulous column. I could read your historical insights all say!
Thanks very much Judi.
My eyes say… Forte is a beast, but Derma is the monster in this race.
I’m with you, Derma’s my choice. Of course, I’m a sucker for anyone running with Sunday Silence in their pedigree.
What a difference SS made in Japan, a shame they didn’t want him here in the US.
I liked him way back. Now guys like you are killing my odds LOL. He’s gonna go off single digits.
He will get pounded for sure. I’m thinking 6-1.
I don’t bet, so you can’t blame me for the odds! 🙂
After the work this AM Derma is back to double digits. Stay on him. One work that looks solo will not stop this guy from running away with it all.
I can’t find the right words to explain how much I enjoyed reading this Steve. I’m pretty sure I was smiling the whole time. What a wonderful story, thank you.
You just did. Thank you!
The heck with rankings, speed figures — or even the odds! Steve, your close observations and insights tell us all we need to know about these horses. Sure, it’s tough to pick a winner with so many horses peaking at the same time. I’m just planning to watch as many clips and videos of the runners between now and race day as I can.
Thanks for such a masterful column from the master of Derby wisdom himself!
Thanks Ms. B. With horses you never know all you need to know. Lol.
Hi Steve,
A pedigree side note on Disarm.
His dam’s (Easy Tap) grandame was out of White Jasmine by Whitesburg who was by Crimson Satan.
When Zenya Yoshida was acquiring mares to be bred to Northern Taste, he purchased two mares by Crimson Satan.
The best filly from the Northern Taste x Scarlet Ink was Scarlet Bouquet. She had 21 starts, 6 wins, 4 places and 3 shows with over 311,000 (yen) in winnings (roughly equivalent to 3 million in dollars). She also raced to age 4.
I too was very pleased with Disarm’s work today. Certainly resulted in my taking a second look at him and seeing how he progresses as he preps.
He has an absolutely awesome hip on him.
Steve, great piece and perfect timing. It’s late April and we’re all looking for the May BLOOM
When it comes to the Derby the majority of workouts seem to be outstanding on paper but as Steve tells us nothing can substitute the power of observation.
For instance, Fusaichi Pegasus with the very same workouts for 6 furlongs at three different tracks (Hol, Aq and CD) did not impress me as much as the workouts of The Deputy and Captain Steve for that 2000 Derby.
Point Given looked like a monster during his 3 weeks training at Churchill but the pace in that Derby was conducive to a deep closer… and it was Monarchos the one confirming the closing power he showed during workouts at Churchill.
Buzzards Bay was a very credible 40-1 longshot after his 1:11 ⅖ final 6-F workout but the PP 20 was too much for him. Giacomo did not train at Churchill but looked like a thunder training at Hollywood park two weeks before the Derby.
Every one knew Hard Spun would be very hard to pass after his (final) 5-furlong workout in an scintillating 57 ⅗ seconds.
Big Brow’s constant bullet workouts made him a very reliable odds-on Derby favorite.
I doubt anyone noticed Mine That Bird in his only workout (5f in 62 seconds) at Churchill. That pre-Derby stage was filled by Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire. The latter looked like a solid Derby favorite after a tuning 5-F in 57 ⅘ but the son of A.P. Indy did not fire in the run for the Roses after a 49-day layoff. I wasn’t the only one deceived by his speed ratings and his workouts…
Super Saver was not as alluring as Lookin At Lucky in training but was luckier in running the Derby.
I’ll Have Another training was aiming at building his stamina, Orb was a happy and healthy horse at Churchill. California Chrome did not workout in Churchill.
American Pharoah and Justify always hinted they were something special in the mornings and even more so in the afternoons.
Medina Spirit was bound to improve in Kentucky after some training setbacks before the Santa Anita Derby.
Anyway, there were a lot of Derby winners who were consistently outstanding in training and running. But when I see all those astounding weekly workouts before the Derby and then watching those morning marvels faltering at the 1 ¼- mile Classic I conclude that many runners are just over trained for the race.
Making a racehorse peak at the right time is like guessing the exact recipe to make Oreo or Coca-Cola… even an elite trainer could be a bit off in the training ingredients he concocts for any given Derby hopeful.
Horse performance in the Derby is compromised when the fiduciary duty of a trainer is reduced to just getting a horse to run in the historical race.
On the other hand, trainers like Chad Brown should be commended for skipping the Derby with Blazing Sevens so as to position the son of Practical Joke to be successful in his next race.
The other side of the coin is the honest belief that “anything can happen in the Derby” and that there are horses like Giacomo, MIne that Bird and Rich Strike to prove that anyone can dream big.
Great stuff Nelson. Now that’s what I call observant. I remember after hearing that Hard Spun worked too fast Larry Jones said after he finished second in the Derby “maybe I didnt work him fast enough. “
LOL…confident trainer indeed
Nelson Blazing Sevens is by Good Magic….but Practical Joke does figure, in the Derby for Chad Brown, who bred Practical Move! Chad has done very well skipping the Derby and winning the Preakness, and he has a good chance to win the Derby as breeder, this year!..
Thanks for the correction Matt…it was a short circuit in my head with Brown and his trainees PJ and Good Magic
Friesan Fire’s derby was compromised right out of the gate when Join in the Dance veered hard left out of the 9 hole. He shoved the 8 and 7 right over into Friesan in the 6 hole. Papa Clem the 7 stomped on Friesans leg and hoof, tearing it in half. Friesan came back bloody and sore and Larry commented on it on camera. He clobbered Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby on a sloppy track by 8 or 9 lengths. Papa Clem ran 4th by 6.5 lengths to MTB. Friesan would have been in the picture if not for his injuries that day. I felt awful for Larry. That was his Derby Horse for sure.
The irony of that Derby was Larry had the choice between the 6 or the 9 hole when Friesans name was drawn to pick his pole position. What a turn of fate that was.
Thanks for the reply El Kabong.
Friesan Fire grabbed a quarter in the Kentucky Derby which was the main reason he ran so bad.
I never understood why he was entered in the Preakness. That caused a stress fracture in his left front leg and a secondary non-displaced chip fracture in his right front fetlock … Surgery healed him but he never regained winning form after that…
Fresian Fire was my selection to win the Derby and I was disappointed when he did not.
Hi Steve,
I remember very well your reporting from trackside accompanied by photos on Blood Horse.
Eventhough I have been a fan of horse racing since I was a little girl, there was so much I did not know.
You have been the teacher, the professor from whom I have learned so much and from whom I am still learning.
I miss the days when TVG did not require a membership to watch the works leading up to the Derby.
Lucky for me that the workouts are posted on Twitter from both CHD and Twinspires now and because of you I know what to look for!
Quick story from my childhood:
Where I grew up there were no racetracks. The closest thing was barrel racing, flag races, pole bending and other gymkhana events. Almost every weekend there was a horseshow from late March through October and the gymkhana events were very popular.
Some of the horses were so hyped they literally came through the gate on their hind legs. Most had tie downs to hold their heads down and to make them more controllable and to stop rearing. Invaraibly these horses, though very, very fast, were so tight when they ran that they usually blew the run and were out of the money. The relaxed horses might jig a little anticipating the run but they stretched out, dropped their heads and usually won the races or placed in the money.
Sometimes the horses were too relaxed and needed to be ridden by an aggressive rider who used spurs, the reins like a crop etc. So there was such a thing as the horse being too calm.
To this day when I watch the workouts for the Derby entries I look for how the colts work. Are they super-hyped, or relaxed or too relaxed. Always looking for the colts who hit the happy medium consistently. Same for the warm-ups before the race and in the paddock or when they are saddled.
This was a great post from you today and once again I learned another tip or two. It also lit the Derby fire today for me.
So thank you!!
I really appreciate that Lynda. Thank you so much. Seems like you have learned a lot about watching horses from your childhood days. That’s great. Thanks again for the kind words and enjoy the morning works show.
I mentioned to a friend prior to the LA Derby that the 2 horses who had the lowest numbers looking at the pedigree query regarding their dosage index and center of distribution, I have no idea what the latter means, were Disarm and Kingsbarns. And as luck would have it they ran 1-2 and naturally I didn’t wager it that way.
Dosage hasnt been kept up over the years so it has little relevance anymore in my opinion. Most people dont remember how big dosage was in the 80s and 90s.
Wow, Steve, I loved this column! When I go to the races, I pick horses strictly on how they look in the paddock, simply because for me, that method is the most fun. You’ve given us all kinds of great points to consider when reviewing pre-Derby workouts, things I never thought to look for. Thanks!
Thank you. So glad you enjoyed it.
First Steve—Terrific column, always a good read but this one had more oomph!
Second Davids, tough news about Dean Holland, the rail is the most dangerous part of a race, my little sis went to high school with Kevin Burns, who at age 17 was leading the rider standings, at Turf Paradise, before hitting the rail in a Quarter Horse race, and succumbing to injury, Horse Racing is the only sport where they follow the action with an ambulance..
Hi Steve,
I learn something new from every one of your articles. For what it’s worth, Brandon Stauble’s twitter account showed Hit Show working with Verifying, his comment said Hit Show #toss. Thank You for your great coverage!
Thanks Hammer. I see Brandon wasnt on the show. Dont know if he’ll be there next week. I’m not tossing Hit Show just yet. I want to see how he works next week.
Wow Steve ! You never cease to amaze your followers and general audience as well.
This piece is an indispensable dissertation about spelling out workouts and horse condition.
Thanks to you I won’t need to search for books or any other material related to appraising the drills of race horses.
Your sharing of your knowledge and storytelling mastery are essential to understanding and even love Horse Racing… we will never thank you enough for your generosity.
Thank you so much Nelson for the kind words. I hope it helps and makes this Derby more enjoyable for you.
Hi Steve, Long time reader (listener on Byk) and first time commentor here.
Like everyone else, I’ve really enjoyed getting your insights over the years. So much so that it’s one of my favorite parts of the season. I’ve finally come to see the beauty of deep diving into a pedigree. I can easily spend an hour on one pedigree now and can’t believe that I once only looked for the dosage index… lol! I’ve clicked so often these past few weeks that my fingertip feels stone bruised on my click finger.
I’m curious what you think of the pedigree of Kingsbarns? I think it’s so interesting that, when you follow the tail female line back, you find yourself looking at Washington breds and Texas breds. Yet it looks like Blue Chip/McDonald’s All-American 5 Star breeding going all the way back to Rosey Fingered and Gun Play.
Horses that I’m interested in for the Derby are Kingsbarns, Disarm, Hit Show, Sun Thunder, Verifying and Continuar.
Look forward to your workout reports! I’m not much on appearance, but Disarm seemed to have a glow to him this morning. Have you seen him before? Does he always have an angelic glow about him or am I smitten 🙂
Hello Jim – KingsBarns had no problem romping at 1 3/16 in the LA Derby. I don’t see him having any problem at 1 1/4. You also mentioned Disarm Jim. He is training lights out at CD and will surely be a big price in the KY Derby. It was Disarm who was the only horse making up on KingsBarns in the stretch of the LA Derby. I’d love to see a KingsBarns/Disarm derby exacta. These are my two KDFW horses at 43-1 and 45-1.
Hi Joe, Thanks for the reply. I’ve never dipped into futures, but I certainly like the position you are in. My first thought was to discount Kingsbarns due to the crawling fractions in the La. Derby. The more I think about it, however, I think I’m impressed at his ability to draw away when every horse in the race should have been loaded for the sprint home. His last 3/8th’s were identical to Epicenter’s last 3/8ths last year and it was only his 3rd lifetime start going the Preakness distance. Pletcher could’ve chosen a 1 and 1/8 mile prep for his 3rd start, so he must be confident that he’ll run all day.
Thank you very much Jim. Kingsbarns pedigree is pretty straightforward, nothing unusual. He certainly is bred for distance and as you said his female family ytaces to a Washington-bred mare. Good luck in your pedigree search
I disagree with you Mr. Haskin; Kingsbarns does have something unusual in his pedigree. The key name is the amazing “Miesque”. She traces back on a direct female line to the great broodmare sire and long-distance runner, Princequillo. Secretariat is out of a Princequillo mare, as well as Sham. Miesque is perfectly positioned in KB’s pedigree.
Except for Forte and Practical Move, I’m tossing the rest of the above-mentioned horses. I am a big fan of Disarm’s sire, Gun Runner; but I’m not sure what to do with him.
I don’t know how closely related Kingsbarns is to Flightline, but I saw a side by side picture of the two, and they look alike…..
Fascinating article, Steve, with a lot of good information. I’ve always set great store in your Derby thoughts and opinions, and followed them closely over the years. I have a habit of looking for Secretariat in every horse’s pedigree. He’s there so much of the time. By the way, I purchased your “Buff” photo of him, and it’s really striking. Ah – Blame and Birdstone – the “giant killers”. That still stings. One last thing – you mentioned that you took over “Derby Doings” from a legend. Take a look in the mirror, because you can count yourself in that small group.
That is so kind of you Beth. Thank you very much. That means a lot. And thanks for buying the photo.
Thanks Steve for this great write-up to start off these last two weeks.
I have to say I remember the days back in the 70’s looking for the black Derby Doings logo on the front page of the DRF and soaking up all that Joe Hirsch had to offer.
As for your Forte/ Two Phi’s exacta box, my wife and I were at Belmont Park, on the rail at the 1/16th pole the day Birdstone silenced the Smarty Party crowd. I was also in the stands the evening of that Breeders Cup Classic with the gorgeous magenta sky wondering why Mike Smith had Zenyatta so far behind the field, then watching her almost catching the gallant Blame as they came to the wire together. Two moments that still send shivers up my spine! I just may play that x box.
I also am very interested in how Derma Sotogake is taking to Churchill Downs. In his jog this morning he looked very active, looking like he wanted more but yet under control. I’m very intrigued by the Japanese training style of keeping their charges out on the track longer. Was wondering about your thoughts on their training style.
Thanks again Steve.
Thanks very much John. Its amazing how many people were affected by those two races. Derma has looked more at home each day as has Continuar. The Japanes horses are always happy and look great. They sure know what they’re doing.
Awesome work by Disarm this morning, and he’s looked great in his gallops every morning, showing good energy. He is really is doing well. Looking more and more like a very live longshot,
Glad to see Disarm acclimated to CD and firing a 5F bullet work today. He will likely be 30-1 in the KY Derby. Maybe he really needed the Lexington to wake up this sleeping giant. So glad Rosario is back aboard and I can’t wait to see Disarm run at 1 1/4 and get that long CD stretch. So glad to have bet him in KDFW2 at 45-1. My EX Box with the field gives me 15 horses. I also have KingsBarns at 43-1 in KDFW5. I’m sure Pletcher will secure a top jockey for this undefeated son of Uncle Mo. KB quick break from the gate as well as his tactical speed and pedigree make him a strong win contender in the KY Derby.
I agree with you on all points. The final 3/16th in the Louisiana Derby was fast. Kingsbarns will be hard to catch if he is close to the lead at the top of stretch. The Fair Grounds stretch is long; it is similar to Churchill Downs.
It’s impossible to play out the Kentucky Derby in my head before the post positions. What I like to do is pick my top five or six horses and hope that at least three of them have good post positions.
Disarm is loving the track.
Hi Mary – Disarm’s thriving at CD has renewed my belief in him that he can hit the board and maybe even win the KY Derby. KingsBarns has raced only three times but I really like his derby chances as he seems to get better with each race. I’m hoping KB and Disarm draw well for the Derby. I will be using probably four other contenders to use with KB and Disarm, and as you have said, hopefully they can draw good PP.
I enjoyed reading about Sea Hero. I remember liking him that year. I had been using an angle somewhat successfully of betting horses who went off form in the florida heat. I was a little biased, since i hate hot weather also, but i had cashed on some longshots revived by the cooler northern weather. This was pre account wagering, so i was unable to bet, but it was great to see two old gems like Miller and Mellon get their derby in the twilight years.
Great start to the Derby fever.
I love the history and the stories.
Would love to know how Derma Sotogake is adjusting to Churchill and if he is showing any issues about all his travel.
My questions are:
Will Forte get a trip.
Will Ramon be a good enough Jock for Practical Move.
Can Derma Sotogake continue the Japanese plunder.
Also, staying in Lexington this year and want to visit a farm or too. Is Old Friends the best choice?
Thank you for the great write up.
Not to interrupt here, Eric, but you would not regret visiting Old Friends & meeting Michael Blowen & company. Enjoy Lexington.
Definitely go to Old Friends. You’ll have a very enjoyable day. It’s a very special place.
Thank you Steve and SJ!
Old Friends is wonderful, I’ve been there twice. I was able to feed carrots to Tinner’s Way and Genuine Reward.