I Had Arcangues and it Still Haunts Me
We have four strong contenders, three from Japan and one from Ireland, trying to become only the second foreign horse, and first since 1993, to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic on dirt. But there is a personal story connected to that 1993 winner who was the first and only to accomplish that feat. After three decades, that story is finally is being told despite the torment it has caused me. Like with all inner demons it is time to exorcise it. ~ Steve Haskin
I Had Arcangues and it Still Haunts Me
By Steve Haskin
Arcangues – 1993 Breeders’ Cup Classic
This column is personal, but it also has elements of handicapping, utilizing inside sources, the workings of a top-class foreign stable, the pressures of deadline writing, and why horses who appear to be in way over their heads can win at astronomical odds. It also demonstrates, as most handicappers will agree, how bad experiences betting can gnaw away at you more than good ones can be celebrated.
How can I have a $269.20 winner in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and feel miserable for months? Why have I still not been able to watch the race after 31 years? I will repeat, I loved Arcangues and bet him and was so upset after the race I barely had an appetite at dinner that night. Welcome to the crazy world of handicapping and betting horses.
Let’s start at the beginning. I was covering my second Breeders’ Cup for Daily Racing Form, having been made a feature writer in 1991 and covering my first Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup in 1992. Although my initial Derby coverage was writing daily features and a new feature called “The Work Patrol” with my colleague Ed Fountaine, I was assigned two Breeders’ Cup races to cover.
In 1992 I was to cover the Breeders’ Cup Mile and Turf at Gulfstream Park. This was my first big race assignment and my first exposure to deadline race coverage. After years of feature writing for weekly or monthly publications like the Thoroughbred Record, Thoroughbred Times (covering New Jersey racing), Stud & Stable and Pacemaker in England, and the Louisiana Horse, I was now writing for a daily newspaper, regarded as “racing’s bible,” which meant whipping out stories immediately.
I had to write the stories of both the Mile and Turf and have them in as quickly as possible. It was a good start, as I also had to make selections for the Saturday paper and picked (and wagered on) the winners of both my races (Lure $12.80 in the Mile and Fraise $30 in the Turf).
In 1993 I covered the same two races at Santa Anita in what was my first visit to Los Angeles. Being a die-hard New Yorker I felt like I was in a foreign country and fortunately had Ed, who had lived in L.A. for many years, to chauffer me around.
Prior to leaving I wrote my daily Countdown to the Cup feature, providing the latest news and prospective fields on all seven (that’s right, seven) Breeders’ Cup races, and that is where this story really begins. Although I wrote about each race I focused mostly on the Classic, which that year featured top-class horses Bertrando, Best Pal, Colonial Affair, Devil His Due, Marquetry, Miner’s Mark, and Kissin Kris, who would become the villain of the story, at least in my warped eyes.
One day while preparing to write my story I learned from someone I knew who was working that year for leading trainer Andre Fabre that he was planning on running a horse named Arcangues in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There was nothing in Arcangues’ past performances to suggest he would be a threat to the Americans, having never run on dirt, having not a single drop of American blood anywhere in his pedigree, and coming off sixth and fourth-place finishes in his two most recent races.
But there was one thing about the horse that stuck in my mind from the previous year. When that year’s beaten Kentucky Derby favorite Arazi, who had demolished the best American 2-year-olds in the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was making his comeback in the 1 ¼-mile Pix du Prince d’Orange later in 1992, he was beaten six lengths as the favorite by Arcangues. That is a huge margin in Europe, so I knew this horse did have ability and big races in him, having won several Group races at ages 3, 4, and 5 . He just was inconsistent throughout his career.
I also learned from my inside source in Fabre’s camp that Arcanagues had always suffered from back problems and had trouble with soft ground and running uphill and downhill. Fabre started working him on his dirt training track said one day of Arcangues, “I have never had a horse who trained better on the dirt.” It seemed obvious that the dirt and a flat racetrack with no undulations would turn the 5-year-old into a different horse and move him up significantly.
I wrote about all that in my Countdown to the Cup story. It was there for anyone to store away if they wanted to.
Looking deeper into this horse, I did notice there was one thing that validated Fabre’s decision to run in the Classic. All of Arcangues’ stakes victories came on good ground and his worst races came either on soft ground or in his two starts in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown in England, which has a stiff uphill stretch run. So we know he liked firmer going and did not run well up a stiff incline, which could very well have been because of his back problems.
Also, learning that Arcangues had trained better on dirt than any horse Fabre ever had, I thought back one year to the Breeders’ Cup Classic when he ran his 3-year-old filly Jolypha, who had won the Group 1 French Oaks and Prix Vermeille before finishing eighth in the Pix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Not only was it unprecedented to run a 3-year-old filly from France with no dirt experience in the Classic, he did so even though her owner, Juddmonte Farms, had two American colts trained by Bobby Frankel, Marquetry and Defensive Play, pointing for the race.
Unlike Arcangues, Jolypha did have a good number of U.S. dirt influences in her pedigree, such as Northern Dancer, Sir Gaylord, Tom Fool, and Equipoise, and she had to have trained impressively over the dirt to earn her ticket to America. So now here was Fabre a year later saying that no horse had ever trained better on dirt than Arcangues.
Another factor that likely contributed to his decision to run Arcangues was Jolypha finishing a fast-closing third, beaten only 2 ½ lengths, in the Classic behind A.P. Indy and Pleasant Tap, arguably the two best horses in America.
When the time arrived for Arcangues to leave for America Fabre reportedly told Alec Wildenstein, son of owner Daniel Wildenstein, “On a flat dirt track he will be impossible to beat.”
After arriving at Santa Anita, I made sure I spent enough time at the quarantine barn, especially covering the Mile and Turf with a number of European horses. Each day when the European contingent went to the track, the horse who led them was none other than Arcangues, who was quite an attractive chestnut and always very professional. There no doubt was a reason why Arcangues was chosen to lead the others.
The day before the Breeders’ Cup it was time to send in my selections. One Classic horse who caught my attention on the track, the way he looked and how he was training, was Haskell Invitational winner Kissin Kris, who had finished second in the Belmont Stakes to Colonial Affair and Travers Stakes to Derby winner Sea Hero. I thought he was a live overlay at 8-1 on the morning line.
Now came my decision. Do I pick the logical horse on top at an attractive 8-1 or take a shot on what could be the greatest pick of all time at who knows what astronomical odds? I called our copy chief to make sure they wanted their usual top three and a longshot pick, which he confirmed. So I did have a way to pick both horses, feeling that making Arcangues my longshot special was pretty wild in itself and I would certainly be the only one to have him. So I played it safe and picked Kissin Kris on top and made Arcangues my longshot.
The next morning I decided to go to the windows as soon as they opened and place some minimal bets on the horses I really liked at a price just to have the tickets in my pocket and then make my big bets later after seeing their odds. So I bet $4 to win on Arcangues with the intention of betting $20 to win on him and Kissin Kris before the Classic, knowing exactly what their odds would be. I wasn’t a big bettor and was new to making selections in print, so having a horse like Arcangues win, even as my longshot pick, would mean a lot, and it would make the Racing Form look good. Also, I had touted the horse to a number of people who were big bettors.
When I went up to the press box I picked up the Racing Form and immediately turned to the selection page. What? No longshot picks? A sinking feeling came over me, as my stomach turned to knots. I called the copy chief and he said they were short on space so they had to cut out the longshot picks. That meant I did not have Arcangues anywhere. Not even third. My public ties to the horse were gone. Why did I wimp out and not pick him on top? Oh, well, the chances of him winning against these horses were pretty remote anyway. But just to be on the safe side I planned to bet more on him to make up for this terrible turn of events.
After the Mile, won by Lure again, I began writing feverishly to get my story finished before the Turf. When you’re on your first deadline, especially in the Breeders’ Cup, you tune out everything else and just focus your entire mind on your story. After I finished I didn’t even know who had won the Juvenile the race after. Just like that it was time for the Turf. After Kotashaan won as the 3-2 favorite I began writing, losing myself in the story. The Classic was the next race, but I had to get this story finished and I started to feel the pressure. Nothing else mattered except putting all my notes and press quotes together, finish writing the story, and get it to the copy desk.
As I was finishing the story I looked up and they were getting in the gate for the Classic. I couldn’t believe it; I was so immersed in my story I had totally lost track of time and never made my bets. I didn’t even know what the odds were. Who knows, maybe I saved money. The favorite Bertrando, coming off a wire-to-wire 13 ½-length romp in the Woodward Stakes, was bounding along on the lead and looked to be home free turning into the stretch. Just then I noticed a horse with blue silks squeezing his way between horses. Who the heck is that? Blue silks? That’s Daniel Wildenstein’s colors. I couldn’t believe, it’s Arcangues…and he’s going to win!
Arcangues, with Jerry Bailey aboard, wins the 1993 Breeders’s Cup Classic at 133-1 odds.
No, it can’t be. I never made my bet. I didn’t have him anywhere in my picks. I no longer had any connection to the horse other than a measly $4 bet. I don’t want to be here; I just wanna go home and go under the covers and not look at a horse race for a month. If I felt horrible seeing he was 99-1 on the tote board, imagine how I felt when I found out he was actually 133-1.
What am I gonna tell my wife? We were almost rich? I almost was a hero?
“Here dear; here is my $538.40 I won on the Classic instead of the thousands I should have won. Oh, yes, I didn’t pick him to win and they didn’t use my longshot pick. Did I mention the number of people I told about this horse who won thousands of dollars, including the DRF copy chief who cut my longshot pick? Oh, I forgot the one person I told about the horse who then told his friend who was in a handicapping contest and won the $20,000 first place prize.”
That night I went to dinner with Ed and had little appetite. Ed, however, seemed to get a kick out of the irony of it all. “After all that I can’t believe you only had $4 on him,” he said. Back in the office, Ed had a poster-size blowup made of what I wrote about the horse in my article and hung it next to our desk. I had to stare at that every day, even as it became yellow and frayed at the edges over time. I could have just taken it down and torn it to shreds, but I deserved the punishment and let it just die a natural death after many months.
Normally, Arcangues’ victory would be my kind of story to write, especially with Jerry Bailey picking up the mount late and not having a clue who the horse was or how to pronounce his name. He also never saw Fabre, didn’t even know what he looked like, and was given instructions by the groom in French and not understanding a word of it.
“I just figured being he was a European horse he wanted to come from behind, and being 99-1 I’ll get to the rail and save ground and maybe pick up a piece of it.. Sometimes it’s good not knowing anything about a horse; you can just leave him alone and let him do what he wants.”
Gary Stevens, who was on Bertrando, said he knew he was beaten at the sixteenth pole, but had no idea who was beating him. He was reported saying after the race, “Where did that sonofabitch come from?”
Well, I knew where he came from, why he came, and what he was capable of doing once he got here. It was all right there for the taking.
But in the end I felt like the punch drunk loser Terry Malloy in On the Waterfront who was reminded “you saw some money” after being forced to take a dive, to which he responded, “You don’t understand, I coulda been somebody.”
Photos courtesy of Breeders’ Cup Ltd.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Breeders Cup just said they will go to Belmont just as soon as it it ready—since it has gone two days—they haven’t been in New York..
I’m so glad – Belmont is my favorite track, I adore it, and it tends to mostly play fair on big days
Except for the 1995 Breeders Cup, when it rained and they rolled down the track—inside path was golden, even Cigar was steered inside, when he made the lead…every race was won inside, that day….but I love Belmont, it’s my favorite track outside of Santa Anita…
Also, I’m getting tired of the BC being held at the same tracks. Belmont even before changes deserved another chance
The Chisen Vron hikes his rear left leg a bit, and has his entire career….11 days out he was scratched, by a single Breeders Cup vet, who likely had NEVER seen Vron race in person! Mewonders–if this hasn’t influenced how early horses are shipped in—trainers maybe not wanting too many eyes on their horses??….
Eric Kruljac is never going to run The Chosen Vron unsound! Never….
Neil Drysdale said on the Willman Show—he was sent by Charlie Whittingham east with Kennedy Road, to race against Secretariat…he watched Big Red train, and said he was “off”…. he took a mile and a half to loosen up, and after his gallop he was “off”, again…..and the horse was fantastic, when he raced—-point is….horses can look “off”, that dies not mean they aren’t sound..
What if he’s off?
David, I know what you mean about betting babies. – get in on the ground floor, lol
Promising Constitution 3 year old colt earlier in the year, Born Noble, is finally back, works anyway, at Palm Beach Downs.
Sottsass, the former Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Prix du Jockey Club winner has been sold by Coolmore to stand at Shizunai Stallion Station in Japan. Sottsass was up against to other sons of Siyouni, the star studded – St Mark’s Basilica and Paddington at Coolmore.
Coolmore are pretty ruthless. They have two other sons of Siyouni – St Mark’s Basilica and Paddington who are much higher demand. St Mark’s Basilica’s yearlings have been dazzling the eyes and wallets at the recent sales in Europe. Paddington’s test at the sales are a couple of years away yet.
Aidan O’Brien dwindles his contigant from 18 to 10 coming to Breeders Cup. Had his vets going over all his horse with a fine tooth comb and 8 were not up to the task for shipping. Wants no embarrassments at the BC.
Unlike some.
Is Illinois still in, do you know?
Oh, rats. I actually just saw the list, and Illinois is out.
Downthestretch, it’s a tough time for the Europeans choosing horses for the Breeders’ Cup races when they run in California. A lot of the European horses that act best on good surfaces have been put away by now for the next year.
City of Troy would not have been well suited to the bog track at ParisLongchamp in October.
Had it been raining at San Diego over the past week and this week Aidan O’Brien could have brought a centuria of runners.
If Andy Serling starts knocking a horse unrelentingly put your house on the horse. Serling couldn’t shut up about how bad Tarifa was and how good Gun Song is.
Tarifa, wins the Mother Goose Stakes. However, the real goose is smart Andy. lol.
I didn’t hear his comments on Tarifa, but going into the race, I really didn’t think she could beat Gun Song – mostly because she’s shown she doesn’t want to go that far
There’s a difference between saying a horse isn’t a good bet and that she’s bad – did Andy really say Tarifa is a bad horse? Because that’s dumb
I’m so glad she won – I’ll always miss Bernardini
Yes, Betsy, that is what Serling said the mouth, no brain, was in full throttle. In his opinion Tarifa was going backwards. Greg Wolf was saying “Tarifa is in her 3rd race cycle on returning…but was cut off by more of Serling’s diatribe.
Mind you, after the race no contrition from Serling. Usually, I mute him and for good reason.
Reason he got canned from a job years ago – he talks before he thinks.
I remember when NYRA had the cartoon of him with a dunce cap on when he got it wrong, which was/is often.
Him and Maggie take the prize.
Yes, Mike, the harshest critics on horses they don’t particularly like but never focus the mirror on ‘their’ success at picking a winner.
Yes, Mike, they both suffer from ‘foot in mouth disease’ the mute button is the only cure for them.
Both of them get on my nerves.
I can’t disagree with him about Tarifa going backwards – I don’t think she ran that well in the Cotillion
But that’s totally different than literally saying she’s a bad horse
I get why people don’t like him, but I respect his opinions generally
Betsy, I would hate to think what Andy Serling’s bank balance, or anyone who trusted Serling’s handicapping, would be if he/they actually put down money on his predictions/choices.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Well fortunately for me, the very rare times I bet, it’s based on emotion – so handicappers’ choices have no effect on me!
Ha ha. I know exactly what you’re saying but if I bet these days it’s on early 2 year olds. Best odds, usually. Ha ha
Agreed, Davids. It’s a wonderful feeling to have a live ticket when Andy knocks your horse. Wondering how he got his job.
Todd, it’s always amazed me he’s kept his job at NYRA. Serling often irritates his fellow commanders, even the ever forgiving Richard Migliore.
He’s like a pebble stuck in your shoe.
I’m starting to give Next a hard look in the Classic. Granted, he hasn’t faced the caliber of horses that he’ll being facing in the Classic, but he has won several G2 and G3 route races by huge margins. Del Mar’s speed favoring track should be just what the doctor ordered for Next’s front running style. He has demonstrated the ability to carry his tactical speed over a distance of ground up to 1 3/4 miles. I suspect his post time odds will be in the double digits, possibly around 20-1.
I’ll use Next underneath in a couple of my superfecta wagers and place a saw buck on his nose to win the BC Classic.
BTW, in tomorrow’s G3 Street Sense Stakes, (KD Prep race), I like Sovereignty for the win. He was 5-1 on the morning line.
Bill, at first, I couldn’t decide whether this was sportsmanship or folly. And I flat LOVE this horse. After revisiting the 1 3/8 mile Brooklyn, in which Next put up a 113 speed figure, I think he actually could be heading into the correct race. I know these are not the types of horses he has had success against, and he will be cutting back, but all-in-all, the American horses are much less consistent this year than he has been. If he likes Del Mar and comes with that huge sprint from mid-race on, which he can consistently put forth when Luan says let’s go, I think he is with/past the horses in the front at the end. I hope. He sure as heck shouldn’t be tired!
I know that you are a real horseplayer, and I’m a sentimentalist, so we have different reasons for considering Next. It was encouraging to see your post!
Let me clarify: I don’t doubt your sportsmanship or think your comment was folly. That referred to the connections entering Next in the BC Classic. Sorry!
Thanks for the reply, Katy
In his most recent post, (10-27) Steve Haskin had a lot of good things to say about Next. It appears we are not the only two that have hopped aboard the Next bandwagon. Hopefully, he breaks well and goes gate to wire for the win.
Safe trips to all.
Mckinzie Street will not run in the BC Juvenile.
Gee, the field is dwindling by the minute!
I am not surprised as I was not impressed with his last 2 works. Yakteen pointing for an easier spot later at Del Mar. Citizen Bull sizzled 5 furlongs in 58.8 , I am totally impressed in the way he works, very strong and determined. Gaming, 5 furlongs in 1:00 but previous work was out of the gate 6 furlongs in 1:12. Getaway Car worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.60 the other day, expected a little faster but we know he is fast. Wonder if he will start in the Juvenile ???… stay tune.
Muth work 5 furlongs in 59 flat …. still puzzled by his Calif Crown showing…. Headache that day??? Last Sunday Newgate sizzled 5 furlongs in 59.2. Highland Falls a nice 5 furlongs in 100.2 not mediocre but nothing write home about. Sierra Leone 4 furlongs in 49.8…. Brown said his previous work of 4 furlongs in 49.25 was a “monster” work ?!?!?!? Really now… I liked Thorpeda Anna latest work…. saved the best for the last part of the work. BTW Mystic Dan put in a 3 Furlong breeze today in 36.2.
McKinzie Street has an odd stride..
Chad brown stated that Sierra Leone is training brilliantly, and Domestic Product should be regarded as a free square.
I was just reviewing the past winners of the BCC. The race has been won in less than two minutes 7 times. See below:
2020 – Knicks Go – 1:59.57
2019 -Authentic – 1:59.60
2014 – Bayern – 1:59.88
2008 – ravens Pass – 1:59.27 (Syn)
2004 – Ghostzapper – 1:59.02
2003 – Pleasantly Perfect – 1:59.88
1999 – Cat Thief – 1:59. 52
1997 – Skip Away -1:59.16
1995 – Cigar – 1:59.58
Cat Thief finished 7 of 8 in the Travers by 12 1/4; Two races later he ran 5 seconds faster to the BCC. Never won again in 11 subsequent starts.
Bayern finished last in the Travers by 20L. Two races later he ran 7 seconds faster to win the BCC. Never won again in 5 subsequent starts
Can someone convince me the above form reversals resulted from training & nutrition.
9 occasions not 7
Yes, a professional trainer/nutritionist can convince you IF you are receptive and acceptive. However, the old saying goes, you can lead a horse to water … but you can’t make him drink it.
I remember something specifically about Cat Thief that year. In his race prior to the BC, he had engaged in a speed duel on the rail at Turfway on a day when the rail was death. I knew he was in form and used him on my tickets, but got hung up on another horse for my win bet. Not exactly an Arcangues situation, but one that haunts me a bit.
Todd Pletcher did a very smart thing by keeping his horses at Saratoga. I’ve been told, by a well known retired thoroughbred assistant trainer, that Saratoga is where 2 and 3 year olds really grow and develop. And this is especially true after the horses have spent the summer at Saratoga; they love Saratoga.
Fierceness is a prime example of this. He’s filled out and matured while at Saratoga.
I wouldn’t eliminate Fierceness in the Classic. He has a good chance to do well in the Classic.
Bill Mott has been training his horses going to the Breeders Cup as well.
Plus….this Fall has been incredible, at Saratoga—
Does anyone like any of the retirees below as stallions:
Bright Future -Last race 2024 JCGC; 7 of 8 by 43L
Charge It – Last race 2024 Whitney; last by 44L
South Korea or Turkey here we come !!!
Charge It is standing at Gainesway.
Yep!! Gainesway. They are standing Charge It. Ever heard of them?
Oh Davids I not saying now but sometime down the road !!!
Downthestretch, possible sire sons of Tapit, Curlin, Into Mischief, Quality Road, Uncle Mo and the like will always find it hard to ‘make it’ because they will have a larger number competing against each other.
Moreover, these sons of the popular sires also have value overseas should they not set the world on fire initially in the US so they have a double edge sword against them trying to establish themselves.
Via Sistina wins the Cox Plate and denies the Japanese invader Prognosis by a stunning 7 lengths. Moonee Valley erupts in ecstasy. Racing in Australia is still the fabulous sport of kings.
Sounds like a grand race, Davids. Were you there, or did you just catch it on TV?
I was there Ms Blacktype, it was such a beautiful day and my local baker had their horse running earlier in the day. End of an era for Moonee Valley.
I saw the replay, and she was sensational! Besting some numbers set by Winx, so you know she is the real deal. I absolutely think McDonald deserved his fine, though – foolish behavior in so many ways.
O’Brien….wow….now am hearing, and frankly thinking–about Sierra Leone and his paddle…and all those eyes, with all the power….
There are a whole bunch of horses retiring to stand at stud this year that I am not even going to stifle my yawns over, that’s how nonplussed I am. Then again, I probably said, “who cares?” when Tapit retired, too.
The theme of Arcangues winning the Breeder’s Cup Classic prompted me to take a hard look at the chances of City of Troy in that stellar race.
On paper City of Troy owns premier class being a 4-time Group 1 winner and the only 3-year-old in the field who has defeated older horses in his two last Group 1 wins at the Classic distances.
City of Try was very uncomfortable running over the soft ground in the Coral Eclipse at Sandown in July but still he was able to win on pure class and grit.
Following that brave showing came City of Troy’s crowning performance in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York. The champion 2-year-old shattered Sea the Star’s record time by a whole second. It was a marvelous feat to win wire to wire being under pressure the whole race and striding out powerfully the last furlong. The son of Justify overpowered a first-class field including subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking. She was the favorite in the International Stakes but finished 4th nine daunting lenghts behind the Coolmore superstar.
City of Troy now travels to California with the title of best turf horse of the world in his passport.
The Aidan O’Brien ace has proven that a fast tempo on firm footing actually makes him excel at 10 furlongs … a speedy pace is precisely what he will encounter in the BCC.
I believe City of Troy possesses the agility, athleticism and even the pedigree to also shine on dirt. Del Mar track layout and the possible pace of the race would certainly befit his running style.
Even after his convincing Southwell gallop on a very deep tapeta on September 20th it is difficult to know how City of Troy would react to the dirt kickback.
Justify has sired top runners on turf and dirt equally but seeing Galileo as a broodmare sire makes you assume that horses with that nick won’t be running as well on dirt.
There is not enough evidence to prove of disprove that, but City of Troy’s full brother, Bertinelly, is an excellent stayer who broke his maiden on an all-weather track.
You may take an example in a son of Justify named Just Steel, who despite having a turf
laden female family, is an excellent dirt runner.
It is clearly too early to determine City of Troy’s real possibilities of becoming the first Epsom Derby and BC Classic dual winner; but you must concede that the son of Justify is one of the most exciting European based horses ever contesting the richest American race since Giant’s Causeway.
City of Troy has to overcome many challenges for his last big date including the burden of history but great horses are entitled to write unique chapters in the history book … and it is easy to believe that City of Troy is that special.
Hey Nelson
You make a very convincing case for City of Troy’s chances in the Classic. He certainly checks a lot of boxes. I’m on the Highland Falls bandwagon, who I believe is at the top of his game coming off that G1 JCGC win.
I’ll take a shot in the Super Hi-5, keying HF on top, with City of Troy, Fierceness, Forever Young and Sierra Lione underneath.
BTW, do have any thoughts on Remake, the Japanese colt that is scheduled to ship in for the BC Sprint?
Thanks Nelson.
The Japanese I like is Don Franikie because of his tremendous early speed which will make him a bit more favored than Remake at Del Mar configuration. They got a kind of rivalry with Don Frankie winning two over three clashes… the only time Remake defeated Don Frankie was on a muddy track…
I will wait for the draw to have a better idea of which is going to be firing his best shot in the BC Sprint. In principle I see Mullikin, Raging Torrent and Federal Judge as the top three candidates to win…
Don Frankie is 1,337 pounds of pure power …! you will like his physique for sure… but the American speedballs will be tough to beat.
It was a Godolphin horse that denied Aidan Obrien of training the first British TC winner since Nijinsky (1970)
It was a Godolphin horse that emerged the winner in the race that is the only blemish on COT’s record.
Godolphin has a likely starter in the 2024 BCC
Saturday’s BC Sprint is loaded with top sprinters from around the country, and one shipping in from Japan, (Remake).
The horse I like is Raging Torrent. In his last start, the G2 Pat O’Brien at 7 furlongs, he fought back to beat the highly regarded The Chosen Vron at Del Mar, his home track.
He stopped the clock in 1:21.17, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 125 which is the highest in the BC Sprint field, (by far). Other speed merchants to consider using underneath are Domestic Product, Federal Judge, Mufassa, Mullikin and Straight No Chaser.
Remake (jpn) will be shipping in from Japan, coming off a recent win in the Korea Sprint Stakes. If goes off at double-digit odds, I’ll play a win wager on him just for the hell of it.
I like both of your horses, Remake is laden with class, and has a big kick….Raging Torrent is a slender horse that has reeled off three straight 7 furlong wins, his first was in the race immediately following the Kentucky Derby, which was run in 2:03 and change….Raging Torrent blazed home in 1:21 1/5, if memory serves, his recent win was over a real good horse! That is my exacta box!..
It’s good to see we’re on the same page Matthew W.
Raging Torrent’s trainer, Doug O’Neill appears to have him fully cranked for the BC.
On 10-19, he worked a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.00 flat, 1/71, (handily from the gate).
He appears to be the one to beat in the Sprint.
Good luck with that exacta wager.
Yikes! So many drop outs and retirements just when I was about to settle down to really look at the Breeders’ Cup fields. I have no problem with Idiomatic’s retirement — she has nothing else to prove. Prince of Monaco didn’t race enough to prove anything. And I’m sorry National Trust has a bad foot. He’s danced almost every dance.
Should be some live longshots for all you bettors out there.
Another Bummer !!!!
Just read on DRF that National Treasure out of BC Dirt Mile….. Baffert says foot issue is the reason. Got hurt in the California Crown. Don’t know if he will run in 2025. Muth confirmed for the Mile.
Prince of Monaco has been retired to Claiborne Farm as well. Just woken up to all these shock retirements
I agree, that is bad news. I was really looking forward to Idiomatic’s return for another shot at the Distaff.
That said, I’ll box Thorpedo Anna, Raging Sea and Awesome Result in a fairly large trifecta.
Totally bummed Idiomatic is out of BC. As others have point out below probably going to be one of the more competitive races of the day. I hope she gets bred to Justify.
Recent Mike Repole runner Accuracy got a 108 Beyer, breaking her maiden….she’s three….
Looked very good doing it
Matthew W, do you have any inside track on what is going on with Sweet Azteca? I read that Michael McCarthy said that she was quiet for a few days after her last place finish, and they are now skipping the BC. Just hope she’s OK.
That’s all I have heard….West horses Adare Manor, Sweet Azteca, The Chosen Vron, Subsanador, National Treasure (no works in 27 days so I include him) and now Idiomatic…not going to run….
I’m legit getting sadder by the day!
National Treasure no workouts… . Is he out of the Dirt Mile?
Muth has been working up a storm… but is he good enough?
He is..
Steve,
Love your stories they are great reads.I remember watching that race and thinking who in the hell is that horse.I will be taking a shot with Forever Young,he ran great in the Derby.
Thanks for bringing back alot of memories.Great Column.
Thanks so much, Rich. Good luck with Forrever Young.
RE: BC Distaff
Thorpedo Anna, Raging Sea and Idiomatic appear to be the top three in referenced race.
However, Awesome Result (jpn), shipping in from Japan is undefeated in seven career starts. She looked awesome, last out, in the Japan Gold Cup, drawing off by several lengths. I consider her a must include in the exotic wagers.
Idiomatic won the 2023 Distaff, a repeat this year would come as no surprise.
The Distaff could be the most exciting race on BC Saturday, IMO.
Awesome Result, by Justify, out of Blossomed, by Deputy Minister.
Bill Dawson–Thanks on the information on Awesome Result coming from Japan.
The Japanese horses are trained on tracks in Japan that try to duplicate the tracks in the US. That gives them an advantage to other horses coming from out the US.
You’re welcome, Terri.
Idiomatic has been retired
US Sire, Dialed In, will be represented in the world famous Melbourne Cup on Tuesday on November 5 at the stunning Flemington racecourse after his son Onesmoothoperator won the Geelong Cup yesterday.
The Geelong Cup is a major prep race for the Melbourne Cup.
Kingston Rule, a son of Secretariat, won the Melbourne Cup in 1990 and still holds the record for the fastest winning time. Stay tuned.
Davids–thanks for the information on Dialed In’s son, Onesmoothoperator, I was a fan of his and his son, Gunnevera. What a pedigree!!
Yes, Terri, I have my ‘Cup horse’ now as they say here. Fingers crossed for Onesmoothoperator.
It’s the Cox Plate day here at Moonee Valley racecourse after his, the most prestigious WFA race in Australialasia. Beautiful day here as well, sunny with no wind.
Moreover, it’s the last day of old Moonee Valley, they are renovating the racecourse for the next 2 years. They are building apartments around the racecourse overlooking the track. I’m thinking of buying one as an investment.
PS: the development is called Moonee Valley Park if you want to have a look.
Off subject….In my lifetime there have never been a classic turf threesome in the US as good as Fort Marcy, Cougar II and Drumtop….Cougar ran one of his amazing races in (I think) The Century Hcp, maybe 1971?…..medium sized bay, long tail ran head-up and liked to stop and watch the packed grandstand for minutes at a time, drawing roars!….Cougar beat everybody they sent out here, we saw him trounce Never Bow, in The Californian, Cougar could win big on turf and dirt, and he did it in style….
Matthew, I feel you are forgetting some major achievements by US turf runners who achieved success at the Classic distance. Not mentioning milers here.
Manila beat the European Horse of the Year Dancing Brave as well as Theatrical, and Estrapade in the 1986 Breeders’ cup Turf.
Fraise beat the Arc winner, Subotica, and Two Epsom Derby winners in Dr Devious and Quest for Fame, and US + Canadian Champion Male Turf, Sky Classic, in the 1992 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Kotashaan beat the King George Vi & Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner, Opera House, Champion Stakes and English 1,000 Guineas Stakes winner Hatoof, French Derby winner, Hernando as well as the above Fraise in the 1993 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
I covered the 1992 E.P, Taylor Stakes for DRF won by Hatoof. I bet the runner-up Urban Sea, who won the following year’s Arc and produced superstars Galileo and Sea tthe Stars.
Those were the days, Steve. Urban Sea is inbred 5 x 5 to Nasrullah and 5 x 5 to Prince Rose (Belgium Triple Crown winner) and one of the greatest blue hens.
I’m always hoping that a son from the Nasrullah line will make waves again in Europe as they did in the 1970s – 80s. Mill Reef et al as runners and sires.
Tiz the Law is doing brilliantly well at this stage especially on turf so, hopefully, Coolmore will give him a go with one or two of the better broodmares.
Tiz the Law with his turf runners. Not on turf as above. Lol
I dont put Fort Marcy with Cougar. Their careers overlapped one year before Cougar became a star. Fort Marcy’s arch rival was Fiddle Isle.
Quicken Tree was around then too….just before my time….I remember watching Cougar beating Fort Marcy and Drumtop a couple of times…Cougar was good on turf and he was also good on dirt, a full horse that ran over 50 times….
Yeah, I forgot Foot Marcy stuck around another year after being Horse of the Year. Quicken Tree could run on dirt and grass but I thnk of him more as a dirt horse, He could run all day
Dr. Fager bear Fort Marcy, Advocator & Tobin Bronze in the 1968 United Nations Handicap on not a firm surface.
I just loved that race. The Doc could run on any surface. What an amazing animal.
I so miss those days.
Pinjara was a nice turf horse as well.
Dahlia was another great I saw race more than once.
She won the 1973 Washington D.C. International, owned by Nelson Bunker Hunt. Plus she won the 1973 Man O’ War. Big Spruce was another standout.
I could wrack my brain trying to remember these greats,
Nice article Steve, well done.
Forever Young went to Saudi Arabia and won, running down a top level horse Book em Dano…..then at Dubai he won and then he ran a winning effort in our biggest race—that’s tons of travellings and he held his form, most horses don’t, the time difference catches up with their systems, so he is a top class race horse, in my book…..came back winning a ten furlong race beating a huge
field, I think he’s going to contend for the win….the ten furlong prep should take his starch away some, I expect he will sit several lengths back, maybe 6th…..he is one horse that I cannot leave off my pick four ticket….Japan has three in The Classic and a bunch of others, Remake will be on my ticket also, in The Sprint….I still like Ferocious, and East Avenue as well…..Chancer McPatrick will be going two turns and will need to work out a trip….
Forever Young is a force!
Mike Relva: Yes indeed!! What a horse!!
Matt,
Forever Young has earned the respect that all have bestowed on him. However, I cannot see how he wins the BCC.
The colt stride extension leaves a lot to be desired. I am not sure how to describe it. But what I do know he will not win a lot of races against top class opponents with that stride which is energy sapping.
He and Sierra Leone appeared tied at the hip in the KD. Which of the two colts is better? Let’s assume by virtue of their close finish they are about equal.
Sierra Leone has since contested 3 races with 2 being over 10F and whose final times were 2:01 plus. SL was unable to win any of the two but finished relatively close.
Forever Young has been off since the KD and only recently returned to win a 10F race completed in 2:04 plus. The KD final time was 2:03 plus. In two 10F race Forever Young hasn’t been close to even 2:02.
Which of the two should be more race fit heading into the BCC? What’s the likely final time for the BCC?
The two BCC contested at Del Mar produced the following final times:
2021 – Knicks Go – 1:59.57
2017 – Gun Runner – 2:01.29
The average winning time for the BCCs at the venue is about 2:00 plus. Is Forever Young capable of running 10F in 2:00 with his stride pattern? Highly unlikely!
There are no Gun Runners or Knicks Go’s amongst the USA contingent. But it must be noted Author’s Rise does have a time of 2:00 plus for 10F. A reproduction of that performance could see him emerge a gate to wire winner.
Forever Young is a closer that will be matching strides with other closers. The closers that are more energy efficient movers will have the advantage.
Take a look at Highland Fall’s stride in the stretch of the Blame. The compare it to that of Forever Young. can FY run by HF in the stretch if he gets the jump?
I was very high on Highland Falls especially after the way he won the Jockey Gold Cup. Cox said he was going to find another race ( thought the Lukas Classic would have been a perfect spot ) for him before the BCC but never did. He has been training him like a claimer with 2 pedestrian 4 furlong workouts. Everything he gained from the JGC will be gone by the time the Classic rolls around. I will look elsewhere. If he does win he will be coming out of the clouds but that is not the way he usually runs.
Despite Chancer MacPatrick’s resume reflecting two G1 victories. I cannot bring myself to give him any chance of finishing ahead of East Avenue, if both experience problem free trips.
The cold facts indicate one colt is far superior to the other. But my analysis of cold facts regarding the two might just be severely flawed. Over analysis can be just as compromising as overly passionate. But cold facts shouldn’t be distorted by spin.
Chancer McPatrick –
He won his 3 career starts closing an approximate average of 8L off the pace.
His best opponent in his graded stakes debut emerged as fellow MSW debut winner Ferocious, whom he defeated by 1/2L
His best opponent the Champagne emerged as the last out debut winner Tip Top Thomas who won a MSW by a mere HD. He was fully extended before gaining ascendency over this opponent in the stretch.
His combine margin of victory in his 3 wins is 4 1/4L.
His final time in the Champagne was 1:36.51. The fillies’ BC prep over the same distance on the previous day produced final time of 1:36.73
His 2Turn debut is pending
East Avenue –
He won his 2 career starts with gate to wire performances.
His best opponent in his graded stakes debut emerged as race favorite Ferocious. A last out 2nd place finisher in the G1 Hopeful, whom he defeated by 5 1/2L
his final time for the Futurity was 1:43.17 under gentle urging. The fillies BC prep over the same distance on the previous day, produced a final time of 1:44.64
He won his 2Turn debut impressively
Based purely on the above cold facts, East Avenue appears to be the faster and classier of the two by some margin.
Is there any category apart from # of starts in which Chancer leads East Avenue?
Counter Point you may be right about East Avenue finishing in front of Chancer McPatrick but in the end they both may be looking at the hindends of Baffert’s trio. (JMO)
We’ll see what happens.
There are some singles for the Breeders Cup Championship. The three below will be on top of all my wagers
East Avenue
Notable Speech
Crown Pride
One is allowed to dream. But dreams should never be one’s master.
I am high on Raging Sea. With 3 consecutive wins over 9F. This me is primed to continue Curlin’s success in the BC Championship.
The first of her 3 wins (Saratoga) was in a pedestrian time of 1:51.95 for the 2Turn race. Conditions -Track (fast) Cloudy; Temp 79; Fractions (modest)
Second win(Saratoga) over BC Champion Idiomatic was in a final time of 1:49.14 for 2Turn race. Conditions – track (fast); Clear; Temp 77: Fractions (Fast) Recorded a time 2.81 seconds faster.
Third win (BEL Big A) was in a final tie of 1:50.41 for the 2Turn race. Conditions – track (fast); Clear; Temp 69; Fractions (modest). Could the combination of a poor break and the temperature of 69 account or the slow time for this race?
The temp in CA should be warmer and the pace stronger. The tide from this Raging Sea might just be enough to engulf all at the line.
Hey Counter Point
I’ve got a single for you in the BC Turf Sprint, Cogburn. Race #5 is the start of the Pick 4 sequence of races which ends with the Classic (R8). I’ll single Cogburn on my Pick 4 ticket. The only other horse that scares me is Big Evs, winner of the 2023 BC Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Good luck.
Quite a memory Steve – thanks for the inside story.
As the continental, monolithic, preeminent title of Weight For Age Classic winner slowly drifts to the US Pacific shoreline the stop off this weekend is Melbourne, Australia. Moonee Vally racecourse to be precise and the race being the W. S. Cox Plate.
More colloquially known simply as the Cox Plate, the Australasian ‘race of the Champions’ will be run this Saturday at 5:10 AEDT. That’s 2:10 am Saturday in New York
and 11:10 pm Friday in Los Angeles. 7plus.com.au streams it live.
My local baker, whose children work at Flemington stables, has all the hot gossip. We’ve both decided on Broardsiding in Post 8, barrier 8.
Guess who the favorite is? Yes, a Japanese horse, named Prognosis. The baker is very worried about Prognosis: “the Japanese win all our big races, now!!”.
‘Mrs Baker’ is telling me she won’t have time to watch the Breeders’ Cup races as she gets up to early in the morning. Little does she realise that next Wednesday, I’m going to give her a ‘fair accompli’. Early in the morning is exactly the ‘right time’ to watch the Breeders’ Cup races – in Australia.
Enjoy the races.
‘fait accompli’ not fair accompli as decided by the iPad.
If you want to get a zillion to one odds in next year’s Ky. Derby on a Japanese colt with a ton of classic U.S. blood top and bottom, try to get down on FEDERER, who recently won his debut by a city block and looked spectacular doing it. Interesting name being by Nadal.
Hey Steve
The distance in Federer’s debut race was 1200 meters (about 3/4 of a mile) and his finishing time was 1:12.20. From my perspective, comparing that time with some of the finishing times of the top 2yr. old colts in this country (at that distance) is not that impressive, IMO. Yes, I know, different country, different track variant, etc., etc.
I’ll take a wait see approach on how Federer progresses moving forward in stakes races down the road in Japan.
You’re comparing times in Japan to the US? That’s like comparing running on cement to running on the beach and not at the water. You cant judge a race in Japan without watching it . Do you know what the Thoro-Graph numbers are for Forever Young and Ushba Tesoros last race in Japan.? Neither does Thoro-graph because they cant figure it out.
Who would have thought that Forever Young was a dynamo of a runner after winning at Kawasaki a mile in 1:43 5/10 last December … which was (for intance) equivalent to a 1:36 at Gulfstream …
In my view, Federer’s time of 1:12 2/10 corresponds to a 1:09 in any main American Track …
Hey Nelson
I’d been interested in knowing how you complied those corresponding speed numbers.
Thanks.
edit
I’d be interested in knowing.
If you take all the Track Records of the Kyoto dirt and compare them to those of Gulftream Park you can have an idea of how “heavier” the Japanese track is in relative terms. For instance, the Kyoto record time of a 2-year-old for the 6 furlongs is 1:11 so Federer’s time in his debut is one second slower that record.
So as pure estimation, if the record for 6 furlongs at Gulfstream is 1:08 flat I added one second (Federer’s gap) to it … again, it is only a rough estimate… the best (older) horses at Kyoto that week ran the 6 furlongs in about 1:11.5/10 so Federer’s time looks very promising comparatively… appart from the fact that the son of Nadal did it really easily…!
As calibration points you can take Forever Young’s times for the mile in Saudi Arabia (defeating Book’em Danno) and then his UAE Derby chrono and contrast them with his previous times in Japan to have an idea of the correction you should make for the Japanese running at fast American racecourses. Even taking into account improvement in form from 2 to 3-year-old ages still Japanese Dirt tracks are somwhere 3 to 6 seconds slower than American’s….
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
I had no idea that Japanese dirt tracks are 3 to 6 seconds slower than America’s. Thanks for bringing clarity in that regard.
While we’re on the subject of speed times, are turf times in Japan relatively closer to turf times in America?
Thanks, Nelson.
I like the way you compiled the information to compare times relative to distances at different tracks. Good work and useful.
Turf races in Japan and USA are very similar in their times… As an example, the Gulfstream record for the 12 furlongs is 2:22.63 and for the 2:22.6/10 for the 2400 meters in Kyoto turf track….
Thanks Nelson
I expected the turf times to be very similar.
No matter the location, turf is turf. The condition of the turf, such as yielding and/or firm can certainly affect the finishing time.
I appreciate your input relating to speed variant times in Japan vs those in the USA.
Good luck with your picks in the Breeder’ Cup.
Thanks. Already checked out pedigree.
A sprinkling so many of the top horses including my beloved Secretariat.
Watched a video of the arrival of the 19 horse Japanese contingent at Del Mar. A very good looking bunch. Not a hint of rib on Forever Young. He remains my pick to win the Classic.
Personal opinion of course but the track that would be best suited for COT would be Belmont.
Wish Aiden and Coolmore the very best in the BCC.
I am very, very late in thanking everyone at Secretariatdotcom for my package of goodies that included the adorable Secretariat plushie. So a big thanks to all!
Just a lot of water under the bridge for months. Thankfully my daughter and her family had just a little damage from Milton (they live in Volusia County).
My heart breaks for everyone in western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.
So many places we vacationed at when I was growing up gone…just gone. So sad.
Lynda, I am so sorry to hear about the damage from Milton. Thankfully your daughter didn’t get much damage. I agree with you about Forever Young.
Thank you Terri. She was lucky. Not sure how long they were without power, several days I think.
These two storms have taken a toll on FL, GA, SC, NC, TN, VA and a small part of WVA.
They are strong people and they will build back.
My roots run deep in the Blue Ridge and the Appalachian Mountains. Just heartbreaking.
Still about 90 people missing per latest report.
Lots of heroes out there donating their time to restore power, build roads, put in bridges.
Lynda King–how devastating!!
Thank goodness the people are strong there and are rebuilding.
Steve Haskin: The excitement generated by the Japanese horses in this year’s Classic and Federer next year’s Derby must rival that of AP Indy before he was scratched prior to the Derby.
AP Indy, who was owned by a Japanese owner and bred by Mr. Farrish, must have had the same buzz before the Triple Crown.
He had the best pedigree and potential.
As a result of the 2024 Breeders Cup Classic, two Eclipse Awards will be decided on, Jockey—Flavien Prat…..Three Year Old— Sierra Leone….there’s a bit of symmetry thereabouts, two athletes peaking together, and years end affirmations….
Steve, this is one of the most wrenching “woulda, shoulda, couldas” I’ve ever read. Ouch! As you said, it’s hard to forget about those, even years later.
Another “ouch” is the fact that The Chosen Vron is out of the BC Sprint. He was placed on the vet’s list yesterday.
Oh, what a shame. He has so many fans in California
As well as I have done in The Derby–I haven’t done all that well, in The Breeders Cup, I did cash a big ticket on Amazombe, and Accelerate and New Money Honey—most of my tickets are birdcage linings!
East has dominated this century, really, even when there’s a real good one like American Pharoah….all 8 of his 3yo races are run in the east…
Looking for a certain look, most of these have talent!
I might add Matthew that Del Mar with its short stretch and tight turns are not favorable to the Euros or the Easterners.
If my memory serves, they didn’t do well the last time the Breeders Cup was run at the old Surf & Turf. I spent a lot summers at Del Mar in the late 1950’s & 1960’s.
I would go so far to say as the Breeders Cup is the U.S, crowning horse racing event.
To run these races at Del Mar is a slap in the face but that is just me feeling that way.
Santa Antia, Keeneland & Belmont Park shouls rotate these races.
Early sire priced at $15K—-Mandaloun, beautiful horse, and talented, but—beautiful horse..
I read that release, too. Mandaloun has matured to be quite handsome! I think that’s quite a value if you can’t stomach $1/4 million for Dad’s fee, which I could not. I think his front socks make him look slightly more back at the knee than he actually is – although TB people don’t mind that, and some look for it.
In the same release, Elite Power’s pedigree and subsequent track success are so interesting. Every indication in that pedigree that he would be a Classic distance horse. Nope! Alternate plan: knock their socks off sprinting. It will be so interesting to watch his offspring going forward.
Elite Power is top five, in my lifetime, as a sprinter…I hated to see him retire….
RE: G3, Street Sense Stakes, 1 1/16, 10-27, at CD (R10)
Sovereignty is yet to break his maiden, but William Mott thinks enough of his colt to enter him, in referenced race. By top sire, Into Mischief, out of Crowned, by Bernardini, his pedigree reflects a ton of class and stamina on both sides. He’s a Godolphin homebred which adds to his appeal, IMO.
In his last race, he just missed catching the highly regarded Praetor, by a neck, going a mile in 1:36.14 at Belmont at The Big A, on September 27th.
I like Sovereignty’s chances in the Street Sense, which is an early Kentucky Derby prep race with 10 points going to the winner.
Count me as one who believes a horse should not win HOY with one US start…but should Forever Young win The Classic…and Thorpedo Anna lose The Distaff…I would vote for FY as HOY…..otherwise it’s between Fierceness and Anna….should all three get beat…..hmmm…..
He would have two U.S, starts and to me his Ky Derby was as good as a win with all he went through to get there and in the race. He aso beat good US horses in Dubai and Saudi. I would definitely consider him.
Thinking the same, Steve! Two huge races..
A Cal bred was favored in one other Classic (California Chrome)…that Arcangues Classic had the first and second choices Cal breds …
(Bertrando and Best Pal)..
Tiznow–the only Cal-bred to win The Classic—paid well both times….
Hi Steve. Great article. That Classic was one of my finest betting days ever. I had no clue who Arcangue was. My cousin an avid race follower even followed European Racing when there was little information to find. He told me about this great French trainer Andre Fabre who had an uncanny ability to win with longer priced horses. He also told me that this horse was training unusually well at an all weather track in England (maybe France). Throw in Jerry Bailey and who knows. I didn’t bet much, $20 win and a $10 exacta box with Bertrando who I thought would be hard to run down. I’ve never screamed so hard in my life watching that strech run. I think the exacta paid close to $1000.00. Purely dumb luck.
It may have been dumb luck, but you were smarter than I was.
Steve, we have all been there trust me. I remember I was tasked with betting a large win bet for my son on Grindstone to win the Derby and forgot to do it. While not quite the 133-1 shot….it would have been a sizeable return. He has not let me forget it since LOL.
It’s funny, too….I used to examine all sorts of trends, make charts, watch works and prep races, study and obsess over the races and horses religiously non-stop. My biggest payoffs have all been on fluke bets that I have made based on weird hunches or names I picked at random (i.e., Barbaro’s trifecta – which were all animal names). I LOVE THIS GAME!!!! 🙂
We still love you Steve…and I’d bet your wife does, too! lol
I think she may have before reading this column and learning about the diamond ring she could have had. Just like the college tuition you cost your son.
Grindstone was my pick as well but he only went off at just under 6/1 because he was coupled with Editor’s Note who was highly regarded. Not exactly the bombshell he could have been if a single entry.
Blog favorite Fierceness is holding steady at #1 in the recent NTRA top thoroughbred poll. The colt received 17 of the 30 votes.
The poll makes for interesting reading:
Torpedo Anna sits 7 points behind Fierceness and the only other horse to receive multiple first place voted with 9.
Other horses to receive 1 fists place vote in the current voting:
National Treasure -ranked 5th
Highland Falls – ranked 6th
The Chosen Vron – ranked 11th
Forever Young – ranked 14th
The voters are suggesting that Fierceness is the likely based American entrant to emerge the winner of the BCC, Interesting!
How does a Fierceness win compare to history. let’s what the cold facts reflect.
1984 – Chief’s Crown
1989 – Rythm
1990 – Fly So Free
2000 – Macho Uno
2007 – Street Sense
2010 – Uncle Mo
2020 – Essentials Quality
The horses above have two things in common. They are BCJ winners that contested the BCC as a 3YO. The list doesn’t contain a BCC winner. Subject to correction, Essential Quality 3rd place finish represent the best finish in the BCC from the group.
The big question is. Is Fierceness a superior talent to all on the list above?
Should history be ignored for reasons of passion or should we be guided by it accordingly?
The top American based likely BCC entrant belongs to a category that has never provided a winner. The #2 ranked likely entrant belongs to a category that has produced 1 winner on a preferred surface (Synthetic)
Horses are renown for making fools of us. But often we make fools of ourselves.
That is a interesting fact I was not aware of. For that tidbit of information, it only solidifies my belief that Fierceness was not going to win the Classic anyway.
Mr Haskin
Every time I think I’ve read your best story, you saddle me with another losing bet. The choice of your ending was a nice (and clever)touch. Looking forward to your thoughts on this years BC.
Thanks very much, Todd. I hope that was the last of them I will be doing BC analyses for Friday and Saturday races
Steve, as I was reading the parts of this story where you were frantically writing for deadline, I swear I was reading faster. I still have dreams sometimes that I have not prepared for an exam (often because in the dream, I forgot that I was signed up for the class and never went). This story gave me that same uneasy feeling, and I’m sorry that it was reality for you.
Daniel Wildenstein… I remember him from the Jim French story!
Yep, good memory, Katy. Your dream sounds like my years in high school.
You took your penance like a man, mine is still on the wall. Giacomo’s Derby. Loved Giacomo and Afleet Alex. 2 – $20 Futures on Giacomo and a $100 win bet. $50 exacta box with Alex and keyed top 2 in the tri and super with all and all – all. Never figured on Closing Argument. It worked out anyway but when I saw the tri and super payouts I also lost me appetite. So right now I’m looking at the finish line photo that I call ” Heart Break Alley” Just another lesson in the difference between the sciences of Handicapping and Betting.
The bad always seems to overpower the good. And you had plenty of good. With me it was actually more aaout not picking him on top in DRF than the money that got away.
Steve, ‘that’ is an old fashioned racing story that you love to hear/read about. I couldn’t read any faster, totally enthralled. It all made sense to me when you wrote Fabre said that Arcangues would relish the flat even racecourse. European stayers, good ones, can fly over 10 furlongs they are so packed with stamina.
The mystery is finally solved, Arcangues’ back problems would have had a horrid time with higgly, piggly uneven tracks. Running on the flat US surface Arcangues must have thought this was heaven, and zoom here I go!! Ha ha
The funny thing is, it’s a similar reason why I think City of Troy should do reasonably well in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. City of Troy should relish the flatter US track surface as it will enable him to fully extend. If City of Troy has a liking for the Del Mar track they will all be in trouble.
Marvelous writing as always, Steve. I felt we were all there with you at the track. Bad luck with the bet but, still, you picked Arcangues and that’s all that counts in the long run. You’re the champ!!
Thank you very much, David. My main concern with City of Troy is the short stetch, but maybe he’ll like it. HHe wants to be on the lead in the stretch and old off the closers, What hurt the most with Acanguees is that I DIDNT pick him and my longshot pick got cut.
Steve, Aidan O’Brien has consistently spoken over the past month or so that City of Troy innately wants to go forward and that the tracks in Europe are actually against him as the prevent him to fully extend so we’ll see at Del Mar.
City of Troy has the speed and stamina to wire the field but scenarios on paper can evaporate very fast on the track as we all know. That’s why racing is so much fun.
This is a vague question, but I’m hoping someone can help me
A baby I’m following is trained by Christophe Clement. He’s got dirt breeding throughout, but also lots of turf pedigree on the bottom. The colt had an exceptional workout at OBS and sold for $275,000 (I’ve been told today that OBS works are on all-weather tracks)
So this colt has had some dirt works – slowish, but I assume to be expected since he’s just getting started and obviously being trained by a man who takes his time with his horses
Today he worked on the turf – in fact with an older GSW mare who’s G1 placed in France.
This is a colt I’ve had Classic hopes for. Does work on turf signal that CC likely hasn’t seen enough on dirt to think he’s a dirt horse? I’m hoping that he just wanted a change of pace with him – or maybe (as it’s his first work at 5F) he intends to debut him going long, and that’s likely to happen on turf
I guess what I’m asking essentially – do I need to already adjust my expectations based on 1 work?
Thanks!
Betsy, the turf and AW surfaces are much kinder than dirt. Perhaps, this colt’s knees are not closed yet. Nonetheless, it appears everything is pointing to turf.
Oh there’s no doubt about turf being kinder – but I really hope it’s a one off work because if I’d really hoped for him to be a Classic horse. I suppose next work will tell, but ultimately I want Dazzle to do what he’s best at, so if that’s turf…so be it. And that’s not to make it sound like that’s bad – I love turf racing!
Hi Steve
I can see why your misfortune in the 1993 Classic still “haunts” you.
I have a similar story that “haunts” me as well. In the 2017 Kentucky Derby, there were four colts that were bred from the Mr. Prospector/Norther Dancer cross, (sire line leading directly to Mr. Prospector and broodmare sire line leading directly to Northern Dancer).
Those colts were, Classic Empire, Lookin at Lee, Battle of Midway and Irish War Cry.
I boxed those four in one of my superfecta bets. Had I keyed the favorite, Always Dreaming, on top, with that four underneath, I would have cashed for $75,974.
Looking at Lee, at 33-1 finished 2nd
Battle of Midway, at 40-1 finished 3rd
Classic Empire, at 7-1 finished 4th
BTW, Always Dreaming’s sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, but his broodmare sire line leads to Nasrullah (not Northern Dancer).
One thing I’ve learned to do—many decades ago you HAD to bet $5 exactas, today….if I like two horses a lot–I’ll bet them in a $5 box, too many times I was right but only put up a $1 or $2 box….a $5 exacta pays you well when you’re right..
Steve,
All I can say is I feel your pain !!! I have been there many a times with a case of the woulda, coulda , shouldas. My worst was the 2005 Belmont (have told this story previously in one of Steve’s previous articles) when I missed out on winning my biggest Trifecta !!! I was betting online with my internet account thru YOUBET (now Twin Spires) It was dial up internet back then. In my mind Afleet Alex was a shoe in to win and the only he loses is the jockey falls off or god forbid he breaks down. So I keyed him # 1 in my Trifecta , picked like 3 or 4 horses for 2nd and the rest of the field for 3rd. I always waited on making my bet until I saw the horses in the post parade. So I put everything in and submitted my bet…. One problem it came back I did not have enough funds in my account I was $2 short. I knew I did not have enough time to bring more funds in my account (remember dial up internet back then and high speed internet was in its infancy back then and not available in my area) so I had to make an adjustment to my bet so I dropped a horse named Nolan’s Cat (Owned and bred by a Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey …..who are they I thought at the time???) a maiden from the rest of the field for 3rd pick. Well Afleet Alex wins like I thought by 7 length . One of my horses I picked for 2nd came in 2nd (Andromeda’s Hero , trained by Nick Zito) and as you can guess Nolan’s Cat came in 3rd. I was sick as I had missed out on a $625 $1 trifecta (biggest for me at the time)… didn’t eat much that night.
As far as not bringing yourself to watch that race again I can relate as I have only seen the movie “Pharlap” once. As I can’t bring myself to watch that movie again as the ending is too sad. So I watch “Black Stallion” or “Hildago” instead.
Steve, thanks again for another gem of a column !!!
Thanks. We all remember the big ones that got away a lot longer than the ones we had.
That Terry Malloy line says it all.
GLORY comes to mind.
No space to post longshots.
No time left to get in main bet.
See others cash in on your opinion/ advice.
A blow up for reminders.
Another great story by you. Thanks
“The greatest glory in living, lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.” – Nelson Mandela.
Great post, Kmi. thank you!
Downthedtretch, Phar Lap is a brilliant movie…and when I can, I watch the racing scenes over again; they give me chills – the horse that played Bobby looked exactly like Phar Lap, and the race sequences are SO well done
I mean, the Black Stallion started it all – that’s the mother of all race scenes
But, if you are looking for an incredible feel good story, watch Champions – with Bob Hurt. It’s the insanely true story of Aldaniti, who won the Grand National in 1981 over a year after suffering a serious leg injury. His jockey, Bob Champion, had recovered from cancer
Clips of the movie and actual race are on You Tube, but I highly recommend buying the DVD
I have seen ” Champions ” and love it. It is such a gre at story. Don’t get me wrong Pharlap was also a Great Movie. I like happy endings.. Let it Ride. Anyone !!!
Oh I know you weren’t saying Phar Lap wasn’t great…..and I can’t bear the ending, either, lol. I just watch the races again – period…
“Ride Like a Girl” is a fairly good movie and a much better film than “The Cup” which have similar themes.
Downthestretch, I know exactly how you feel about the Phar Lap movie ending. If you ever visit Melbourne they have Phar Lap’s skin stuffed in a large glass case. He looks extremely realistic.
Phar Lap had an enormous heart, too…no surprise
One of my top 3 fave horses ever 🥹🥹🥹
Hi Steve,
Thanks for your story. I also had Arcangues in the BC Classic in 1993, but only by dumb luck. No handicapping skills like you had. I made my bets at Santa Anita (my home track) with a voucher, which I rarely do, and I have no idea why I didn’t bet with a clerk that day. Anyway, I had all my horses picked out to the exact dollar. Well, one of my horses scratched. I still had $2 to bet and didn’t know how to get the $2 back from the voucher so I just randomly picked a horse in the Classic and it turned out to be Arcangues. I went home to watch the races with my family and when Arcangues won, we were all shocked! I only had $2 on him (that’s my standard bet) and I was thrilled! I was sort of jealous when I read you had $4 to win on him. Hahaha! Sorry…I know that’s not what you want to read. Anyway, another nice thing is that it was really the last time I saw my dad get a kick out something. He was a big racing fan. He had cancer and passed away about 15 days later (on my mom’s birthday, of all days). I always think back on that time and how he got such a kick out of his daughter winning $269 on a $2 bet.
Gloria, there are so many elements to your story I dont know where to begin. I was about to say I hate you, LOL for having him in that way, but then came your gut punch and I’m so sorry it had to end that way. Now I am very happy you were able to share that with your dad. Thank you.
David, FYI I responded to you in the other thread
Yes, Betsy, thanks. I’ve read the responses.
Steve, this tale may be painful to you, but I laughed long and hard when I realized what happened while you were busy making deadline. (I’ve been there myself, but never with potential thousands on the line.) If it makes you feel any better, you are STILL rich in talent. I loved reading this.
Aww, thank you Ms B. It does make me feel better…I think LOL
Nelson, I love European racing, so it’s going to be fun following Heart! I’m not familiar with his connections – best of luck to them!
Yeah, David is a fan of Honor A.P., and he knows I’m kind of obsessed with his offspring, lol
Betsy, Jamie Osborne trained Toast of New York who won the UAE Derby and just missed winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic by a nod in 2014. Saffie Osborne, jockey of Heart of Honor, is his daughter.
Very successful trainer and had a very ‘colorful’ career as a jockey (National Hunt).
David, oh wow – so Heart is in good hands!
Great account of your handicapping exploit of 1992… I knew you had Arcangues to win at $133 to 1 (it should have been a record Guinnes for a win selection by Steve Haskin…) but I am just learning your rationale behind picking the son of Sagace in the BC Classic.
You certainly had an edge by noting that Arcangues had beaten Arazi so easily (and also defeated Horse of the Year Kotashaan in another G2) at 10 furlongs in France.
Another great insight was knowing what French master Andre Fabre said about Arcangues being his best horse training on dirt … I bet very few people knew about Arcangues having back soreness before the BC.
Regarding the regrets, horse players have had incidents of not trusting their luck hard enough when it comes to betting on huge long shots…
Thanks Nelson. Knowing so much about the horse made it all the more painful.
Nelson, I posted on the previous thread in response -but just in case you don’t see:
Thank you! I always love hearing from my Euro friends!
The description says he was hampered early on, so it’s very encouraging that he didn’t let it bother him. I always love seeing “kept on” – very encouraging, certainly a sign he wants to run longer
I was shocked to find that the winner had already won, so this was essentially an allowable race, not a maiden – which makes his run even more impressive
He sold at Arqana Deauville for £160,000, so clearly bidders thought he looked turfy enough in his work. I’m not used to watching works clockwise, lol, so it’s hard to tell – but he looked good!
They debuted him on All-Weather, which is interesting – but where he goes from here will be fascinating
He’s a gorgeous colt – and I’m very biased towards dark bays (love his little heart) !
Betsy, your excitement about Heart of Honor’s future is well justified. The winner (End of Romance) had won in his debut and was second in his second start in a Class 2 race; and there were nice pedigrees (and connections) in the field.
The son of Honor A. P. must be the most promising horse yet for his connections…
Hear of Honor is my watch list already… thanks to Davids again for his prompt heads-up …!
I’m not sure why my response to you posted above, lol
But in any case, I just watched the replay – and wow, I was so impressed. The caller mentioned that he ran greenly early on, but a horse also cut in front of him – you can see the jock yank his head up…
To make a sustained move like that, and then finish with a real burst is fantastic – and he did not want to be pulled up!