Derby Rankings Interim Posts
For your immediate comments, while we undergo maintenance today…
Derby Rankings March 31, 2024 – Interim Posts
out of the gate... and into history
out of the gate... and into history
For your immediate comments, while we undergo maintenance today…
Steve:
Do you have any information re Resilience? He is listed as ‘probable’ for the Wood, but I thought he was injured and off the Derby trail.
Thanks
Would love to know more about Steve’s thoughts on Endlessly’s connections leaning towards sending him to the Kentucky Derby now (reported by TDN). I’m just a serious fan, but I wonder why any owner would pass up a tremendous opportunity like that. It reminds me of Pioneerof the Nile – This may be apples/oranges, but he had raced only on synthetic/turf 8 times before heading to the Derby (his very first race on dirt) where he got second place and went on to sire Am Pharoah who won the TC.
Steve is probably hard at work on his Week 11 blog. POTN was trained by Baffert in California. He won the RB Lewis, the San Felipe, and the Santa Anita Derby when SA had a synthetic track. I don’t think that Baffert had another serious derby contender that year, so why ship east when the big 3yo races at SA were there for the taking. Endlessly, though also trained in Cal, had every opportunity there to run on dirt. But his turf pedigree said otherwise, I guess.
Several times I’ve seen trainer Michael McCarthy quoted as saying that he feels Endlessly is better suited to turf than to dirt. The second time was in a 3/23 Bloodhorse article just after the Jeff Ruby. I’ll be interested to read the update as Endlessly is one of the horses that most intrigues me.
Endlessly is back on the Derby trail, per Bill Finley at TDN.
Re: Wood Memorial
In Derby Futures Pool 3, I have $40.00 win wagers on four horses listed as probable for the Wood. I’m hopeful at least three of the four will secure enough points to make the Derby starting gate.
From my perspective, Deterministic is the most likely winner of the Wood Memorial.
I suspect Tuscan Sky will be Deterministic’s main competition.
Safe trips to all.
Craig Milkowski
@TimeformUSfigs
·
#KentuckyDerby 🏇🏇🏇
TimeformUS Speed Figures from the Derby preps this weekend: Fierceness 126 Muth 122 Forever Young (Timeform Rating) 114+
Mark, I’m not familiar with Timeform speed figures. What would the + mean after Forever Young’s 114?
+ the horse may be better than rated
Hi Steve, my question pertains to the Derby..THE 2018 Derby! Now that they dq’d Justify 6 years too late whether “justified” or not from the SA Derby can the owners of Good Magic, the Derby Runnerup make the case that Justify was not eligible for the Ky. Derby and should be stripped of his win and of course the Triple Crown also. Really want to hear your take on this!Thanks and Regards,Paul
I was thinking the same thing
Wow, was I ever wrong. Fierceness decimated the rest of the field in the Florida Derby. Congratulations to those who love and care for this colt. It was especially rewarding to see Johnny V on another big time win. If Fierceness repeats this performance in the Kentucky Derby, he will own this year’s Derby.
Churchill Downs announced that morning that hearings will be held to determine whether Justify should be disqualified from his Kentucky Derby victory in 2018. This follows the ruling last week in which Justify was officially disqualified from his first-place finish in the 2018 Santa Anita Derby. Justify qualified for the Kentucky Derby through the points earned in the Santa Anita Derby.
Wow!
….announced THIS morning
IMO – Churchill seems bound and determined to inflict a permanent black eye on horse racing.
As if all fault belongs to Churchill.
They aren’t the only ones, but IMO, they seem to go our of their way to get as much publicity as they can at the expense of the game.
And BB goes out if his way sometimes to play the victim.
Polluck report has a genuine article on this issue. The rules and regulations at the time would prevent the CDI from changing the results. It’s over and old news.
Not exactly over. Per BH article, the owners (China Horse Club, WinStar etc) ordered to return purse and Baffert and Mike Smith return $58,000 each.
I did not see your post when I wrote to Steve at 1024 EDT
Winston, where did you see/hear this? Nothing on the Churchill website. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place?
I too am curious as to where. Nothing on any of my “haunts” or X etc.
What day falls between March 31 and April 2?
Why, April Fools’ Day, of course!
Not funny.
A comment like that from someone with NO sense of humor or understanding of April Fools Day is valueless.
Good one Wolfeman. Come on folks, lighten up.
Thanks, Harry.
Steve, I’m looking forward to your new Derby Rankings after the weekend results. No doubt, the changes made will resemble a game of ‘Snakes and Ladders.’ A few landed on ladders while quite a lot landed on snakes. Does Muth get a double spin? lol.
Best of luck with the new site.
Pending the outcome of the Wood, Blue Grass and SA Derby, my top Derby Dozen, in preferential order, are as follows:
1) Fierceness
2) Sierra Leone
3) Dornoch
4) Deterministic
5) Catching Freedom
6) Honor Marie
7) Tuscan Sky
8) Domestic Product
9) Encino
10) Stronghold
11) Just a Touch
12) Track Phantom
Hey Bill! Totally wrong yesterday on selections. Do you gave update on Mott’s horse?
Have.
I don’t trust TP horses in the Derby; they fold like cheap tents. If I had all his millionaire dollar horses my record would be at least his. Anyhow, be interesting to see if baffert ships a horse to the blue grass.
Quote from BB few years ago, “no one remembers Preakness”.
I don’t know for sure how experienced you are as a thoroughbred trainer, but I’ll make a wild guess that your win rate with his derby horses would be just 3 percentage points lower.
Nelson (Mann), finally found out the filly that impressed me. Mistaken she was by Frosted.
Her name is Star of Mystery and she ran 2nd to California Spangle.
By Kodiac out of Mistrusting, owner/breeder Godolphin. Trained by Charlie Appleby.
Whew. Kudos to the folks putting the new website together so WE can have our post-race party.
Hi Steve.
It’s good to hear you’ll be posting your Derby Rankings very soon.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fierceness back at #1.
I’ve read conflicting reports that Resilience sustained an injury to a ligament in his left knee, during his bullet work on 3-30 (1/47). I’d appreciate clarification on this issue, if you could provide same.
Best wishes moving forward on your newly designed website.
Thanks Steve.
I saw somewhere that Fierceness earned a 110 BSF for his geared down romp at Gulfstream yesterday. If true, that’s a huge number for a final prep race before the Derby. He did catch favorable circumstances yesterday. That’s been his history. When things go his way, he looks like a superstar. Then there were the 2 times that things didn’t go his way. I figured that he would win yesterday. I’ll have to look elsewhere on Derby Day. As usual, no offense.
Yes, he did get a 110 Beyer. Shades of 20 years ago!
It wasn’t just favorable for him, he ran a fair amount faster than any have this year, in the Florida Derby, in line with the Juvenile race. He had to work to get the lead from an outside post. Then he ran really fast. Nobody else has matched that performance or come close.
I’ve always said that Belmont was my favorite track to play in the country. With that New York track being remodeled, Keenland becomes my favored place to wager.
Just A Touch worked 5-furlongs at Keenland today in 59.2 which should set him up for his best run next Saturday. The Bluegrass looks like a short quality field.
The Wood Memorial looks to be a big field and wide open for a big price. Kenny McPeek was blazing hot at Oaklawn yesterday and he looks to have one for Aqueduct next Saturday. I might give him a look.
BB horses will loom large over the Santa Anita Derby as usual.
Just F Y I is supposed to make an appearance somewhere next weekend.
Well your faith in Fierceness was rewarded nicely. That is the colt we know and love to see running the oval. I was impressed that he remained relaxed up front but still think he will stalk in the Derby. Somebody will tear off down that stretch run as usual at a break neck pace, but if he breaks well, we know he has tactical speed to position himself off of a pace runner. Loved seeing his nitro at the top of the lane again. Very much like his BC victory when Muth came up to him on the turn for home and without much urging he just casually opened up on Muth, on Muth’s home track.
DId Mystik Dan bounce? He got the job done closing to get 3rd so he should get in or at least be on the bubble waiting for someone to drop out. I still like his chances. I’ll wait to hear from you or his connections about that performance in the Ark Derby.
I am wondering if Mystik Dan was bothered by Liberal Arts bolted on the first turn. Looked like he was right next to him when he did it. In any case nobody was going to beat Muth in the Ark Derby,
True. But he also couldn’t beat Just Steel.
Hi it’s Steve, please bear with us while the new blog design is being completed, hopefully by tomorrow. In the meantime feel free to comment here on yesterday’s races.
I’m looking forward to seeing the new design in full. I like the ability to save name and email for comments. Hoping that a more readable serif font is used for the blog.
Fierceness and his 110 BSF will be the derby favorite no matter what happens next week. At least one colt will stand out on Saturday. Sierra Leone? Dornoch? Just a Touch? Stronghold? Deterministic? Bring it on!
Sure,he was impressive in FL Derby. Anything can happen,including scratches on Derby day.
Agree, TP isn’t the most reliable trainer with his record….
Hi Steve and Secretariat! I am just thrilled that this website is staying up and that Steve is continuing to post columns to it and we are allowed to comment. Looking forward to receiving the Secretariat Plushie I ordered before the old site was shut down.
I got my 50th anniversary pin with Secretariat in the Preakness and another with him galloping in his stallion paddock after retiring, plus two whiskey glasses, less than a week ago. They’re nicely made.
Thumbs up here for that !!!
Thanks for all your efforts in making this blog great!
Yeah ! The biggest day of year so far and no Steve haskin we love you Steve
Conquest Warrior should have run in the Wood. Horse had no chance on that track yesterday. Speed at Gulfstream always a plus, but on big days, it’s on another level.
Well, the last gate-to-wire Florida Derby winner was Maximum Security in 2019. And the earlier dirt races on Saturday were all won by stalkers/pressers. McGaughey admitted that CW is still learning. The colt will be heard from down the line.
Agreed!
For your immediate comments while we undergo updates to the blog. Our apologies for any inconvenience and thank you for your patience.