Is Sierra Leone Becoming Zandon?
With the first of the final major Breeders’ Cup races next weekend, it is time to start looking ahead to Del Mar and see how some of the races are shaping up and who to keep an eye on, especially some of the horses who might be overlooked. ~ Steve Haskin
Is Sierra Leone Becoming Zandon?
By Steve Haskin
Sierra Leone, photo courtesy of Horsephotos.com
Any trainer would have loved to have Zandon in his or her barn, just as any trainer would love to have Sierra Leone now. Zandon in fact was my Kentucky Derby pick and also my Breeders’ Cup Classic pick. Sierra Leone was ranked No. 1 on my Derby Rankings for six weeks and No. 2 for four weeks. And, with no standout this year, he may very well be my Breeders’ Cup Classic pick at this early date. But like Zandon, I keep forgiving his defeats and expect that big breakout race, believing it’s going to come at any time.
The question right now is will Sierra Leone’s career be as frustrating as Zandon’s or will he finally break through and win a championship-caliber race?
How similar are the careers of both horses?
* They both are trained by Chad Brown.
* They both won their career debut sprinting; Sierra Leone by 1 ¼ lengths and Zandon by 1 ½ lengths.
* They both made their stakes debut in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes and both were beaten a nose by the future Belmont Stakes winner.
* They both made their 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star Stakes.
* They both won the Blue Grass Stakes in their next start.
* They both finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby, running the best race of their career in defeat.
* They both finished second in the Jim Dandy and third in the Travers under Flavien Prat.
* Pointing for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Sierra Leone entered September coming off a four-race losing streak, finishing in the money in all of them. Last year, Zandon entered September coming off a three-race losing streak, finishing in the money in all of them.
But now comes the all-important difference in their careers. As a 4-year-old with three starts, it was decided by Brown that Zandon needed another start, perhaps also to act as a confidence builder following eight straight losses going back to the Kentucky Derby (five seconds, two thirds, and a fourth). When Zandon blew his field away by 4 ¼ lengths against a mediocre Woodward field it looked as if it would set him up perfectly for the Classic, which also did not look to be a strong field with much depth. But for the first time in his life Zandon simply did not show up, finishing a well-beaten ninth behind to conclude a monetarily successful career with earnings of $2.2 million, but one with unfulfilled promise. Remember, that $2.2 million was achieved with only three career victories.
Zandon at stud at Spendthrift Farm.
I will remember Zandon as a feast for the eyes; a Black Beauty type who exuded class from a physical standpoint and was consistent throughout his career. But that just led even more to the frustration of seeing him come up short so often.
He was the experienced mountain climber with all the physical attributes who came close to reaching the highest peaks many times, but couldn’t quite make it all the way. And in the Bluegrass and Woodward Stakes — the two occasions when he did reach the summit, he never stayed up there long enough to enjoy the view.
So, with all the parallels to Zandon’s career, Sierra Leone now faces his big opportunity to end the similarities and the frustrating defeats before they define him. And he can silence the critics by winning 3,000 miles from home over a track that shouldn’t suit his style of running. His two stakes victories came at tracks with stretches measuring 1,236 feet (Keeneland) and 1,346 feet (Fair Grounds). Many believe his most impressive performance was his roughly run nose defeat in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs with its 1,234-foot stretch. Now he will be trying to close down a Del Mar stretch measuring only 919 feet.
If he can overcome this disadvantage and generate that explosive power we have seen in the past, but has been missing in his last three starts, he can wipe out those defeats and even put himself in the running for Horse of the Year. Many feel he cost himself the Kentucky Derby with his lugging in antics and was the best horse in the race, especially getting beaten only a nose. So the Derby could very well wind up in more pro columns than con.
Sierra Leone finishes a nose behind winner Mystik Dan in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
There are still some Classic preps to be run, but unlike Zandon, Sierra Leone, who is a big long-striding horse and has had greenness issues to work out, looks like he will welcome a freshening that could allow him the time to re-ignite his engine, get his mind in a better place, and give him the sharpness needed to stay closer to the pace over the smaller track that is often speed-favoring.
With the older horse division underwhelming and the 3-year-old division having more ups and downs than Epsom and Ascot combined, Sierra Leone has at least been more consistent than Fierceness and Dornoch, the leaders of the division who defeated him in the Belmont, Jim Dandy, and Travers, and he didn’t have the smoothest of trips in any of them. And don’t expect him to be between three and four lengths off the lead behind a :48 half as he was in the Travers.
All you have to do is take a look at Fierceness and Dornoch, and add Seize the Grey, and you have the winners of the Preakness, Belmont, Travers, Florida Derby, Pennsylvania Derby, Jim Dandy, Fountain of Youth, and Pat Day Mile. Yet all three of those horses have been criticized this year for being inconsistent, unreliable, and unable to handle adversity. So do we really know what version of them we’re going to get in the Classic? Sierra Leone we at least know is going to run his race, has never been out of the money, and if he runs well enough to be in the money he is capable of winning with a good trip.
Sierra Leone at Saratoga Race Course
In this year’s Belmont Stakes it was unfortunate for him that he didn’t get a chance to run the race at Belmont Park, which he no doubt would have loved, with those big sweeping turns and his huge stride. But even though the Del Mar track should not suit his style of running, his main competition, if we finally get a quick and contentious pace, could very well be the Irish-trained superstar City of Troy, especially with the way he worked over the all-weather track in England last week in a simulated race, and three top-class and hard-knocking Japanese horses, who we are very familiar with – Forever Young, Derma Sotogake, and Ushba Tesoro. And they should also be at a disadvantage with that short stretch.
So at this early date, I am certainly not going to forget Sierra Leone, knowing what he is capable and what race on the first Saturday in May many believe he should have won.
City of Troy Sensational at Southwell
You know Aidan O‘Brien, who has been beaten twice in photos in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, is serious when he sends four horses to Southwell Race Course in England to work with City of Troy. The all-weather surface at Southwell can get a bit loose and provides a stiff test for a horse looking to debut on the dirt. It does, however, have a long stretch and hardly simulates Del Mar. But that is the cards O’Brien has been dealt this year and we have seen Europeans excel on short stretches in America before.
After settling in fifth early in the quintent’s Southwell workout, he moved up steadily under regular rider Ryan Moore, eased out at the top of the stretch and after moving between horses while under a stranglehold he quickly separated himself from his out-classed stablemates and continued to draw away under wraps. As the crowd who showed up to see the work gave him a round of applause he crossed the finish by, let’s just call it the proverbial city block.
European sensation, City of Troy.
What was most impressive was watching him get down low and reach out with those big fluid strides. He then galloped out so strong, as we saw him do in the Epsom Derby, it was hard for Moore to pull him up. He has shown a tendency in his races to open up by a length or two and then defy his foes to get any closer, as he gets stronger. His sire Justify often ran the same way. Whether he can use those tactics against some sharp American horses down that short stretch is something to consider. But for now everything seems to be going perfectly for him to make it to the Classic.
Photos courtesy of Horsephotos.com, Spendthrift Farm, Matt Stone/USA Today Sports, Susie Raisher/Coglianese Photos, Coolmore.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Hi I missed todays race with Sierra Leone live this horse next time she’s racing
Pete Rose has passed.
Big Brown sent to Old Friends. Great!!!
David, for some reason I can’t reply to your post…
Yes, the Golden Rod could be an option – or I think there’s another 2 turn race at the end of October. I had thought maybe Steve would point her to a mile stakes at RP in December, but she’s been in training since April, so I doubt it
I’m crossing everything that can he crossed that Ferocious & Quietside win!
And good point about Rank’s white sox …well, we shall find out soon enough where he might run!
Yes, Betsy, I went through all the possible two year old filly stakes races and the Golden Rod seemed the best fit but as you say Glee has been in training for a lengthy period now. October options seemed too soon and December is too far away.
I wouldn’t mind Dapper Moon upsetting the Breeders’ Futurity either but post 10 at Keeneland can be difficult to nigh impossible especially for a young horse.
Rank, on the turf at a mile or so is wort trying I agree. Bob Baffert’s 2 year olds explode from the gate like rockets at short distances so there seems little advantage persevering there. We shall see.
The weather at Keeneland is looking perfect at this stage. Fingers crossed.
Medaglia D’Oro is renown for siring superior fillies. His daughters Rachel Alexandra and Songbird are in the Hall of Fame and 12 of his 20 millionares are fillies.
There was a stunning performance by a 2-year-old filly yesterday at Churchill that brought memories of those extraordinary females.
Good Cher (Medaglia d’Oro out of Wedding Toast by Street Sense) remained undefeated after winning an Allowance at 1 1/6 miles by 17 swelling lengths. The impressive run was on a sloppy sealed track but she debuted with an easy win on a fast track. The Godolphin filly looks to be something special but she needs to face Stakes company to confirm her raw talent… Brad Cox and Godolphin are poised for another great season …
*Good Cheer
What a pity, I thought the filly must have been named after the singer/actress, Cher.
Good one Davids… Good morning …
I see you are also waiting for Steve’s new article… and checking what is new in this section.
Hope you have a great week over there… the excitement starts with Forever Young running in the Japan Dirt Classic on Wednesday and ends with the best 2-year-olds running this Saturday from coast to coast…
Hi Nelson, I have a few days off this week so am enjoying the freedom to post quite a bit. I like Ramjet in the Japan Dirt Classic, I wanted him to get in the Kentucky Derby but Forever Young should perform well as a prep.
Don’t forget the Arc at ParisLongchamp on Sunday. Depending on the weather, more rain, Japan has a great chance with Shin Emperor to finally win the Arc. That would be so prestigious for Japan. The Siyouni progeny really excel with their speed on soft ground.
Don’t discount the Siyouni mare, Mqse de Sevigne, unbeaten this year with three Group 1s but unknown at the distance. 20 – 1 is a gift.
Bluestocking is a favorite as well but you can’t have them all. Do you have a runner yet? It’s a bit early, I know.
RE: G1, Champagne Stakes, at Belmont at the Big A, Saturday 10-5, (R8).
Chancer McPatrick didn’t draw well (PP 10) but his closing running style, with an impressive turn of foot, should have him right there in the stretch run.
He passed the class test in winning the G1 Hopeful, going 7 furlongs in 1:23.44, beating the highly regarded Ferocious in the process.
Chancer McPatrick, by McKinzie, out of a Bernardini mare should improve as the distance increases, IMO.
He’s in the capable hands of Chad Brown and will be ridden by hot jockey Flavien Prat.
The winner of the Champagne will secure 10 points moving forward on the Derby trail.
Despite his outside draw, I’ll go with Chancer McPatrick to win the Champagne Stakes.
It’s interesting to note that nine out the ten colts entered in the Champagne were last out winners.
I am with you there … I can picture Chancer Mc Patrick having a clean break this time and easily winning the 2024 Champagne. As you said, he showed to be a superior runner by the way he won the Hopeful after Prat losing an iron at the break and traveling six wide on the last turn.
Pletcher’s Uncaged and Maryland bred Executive Order will be completing the Trifecta in my early estimation…
In the West, Gaming looks ready to remain undefeated in the American Pharoah Stakes. McKinzie Street, Citizen Bull and Getaway Car will most likely complete the Superfecta.
The other typical source of BC Juvenile winners, the Claiborne Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland, will likely have Ferocious and East Avenue as the top finishers…
Next Saturday will be a pivotal day to start handicapping the BC Juvenile …
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
I’m in total agreement with your analysis of the races you mentioned.
Yes indeed, the BC Juvenile is shaping up to be a great race. Just as it is very year, it will be best in the East vs best in the West.
Hey Bill,
Not sure if you saw it but on the same card of the Champagne the 5th race is a stakes race being run at 1 3/8 mile on the turf and your derby horse, Deterministic, is entered to run in it. Looks like he has taken a liking to the turf. I hope he runs well in it.
I like Chancer McPatrick in the Champagne. Maybe a McKinzie double if McKinzie Street wins the American Pharoah that same day.
Thanks for the heads up, Downthestretch.
I’m so focused on this year’s crop of 2yr. olds, that I overlooked Deterministic in the race you mentioned. I’m delighted to see that Clement tried him on grass, and as you mentioned, “looks like he has taken a liking to the turf”.
With respect to the American Pharoah, it appears Gaming and McKinzie Street are the top two in that race.
Good Luck.
Betsy, Glee wins the E. L. Gaylord Memorial Stakes, good result for Honor A. P..
Not sure what happened, but my reply to you is below
Betsy, I think the real excitement will be next year when Honor A. P. Has a couple of Derby prospects in contention. Honor A.P. Is doing extremely well, all things considered.
I hope so, David! Spurgeon having to scratch from the MSW on Friday was crushing, but since it’s proved to be just a bruise, hopefully he’ll be back soon
Rank worked a bullet today. I’ve not given up on him – but I hope they stick to maidens for his next start
Todd has a good one, and so do Clement and Brian Lynch. Of course they haven’t debuted, so who knows, but I like them a lot
I’m always worrying about HAP because I think he’s been penalized due to his sire, but it’s very hard to complain with 1 SW and 2 SP runners. He just needs a few more runners
One of my faves is a pocket rocket named Little Mo
Betsy, Rank is nominated for the American Pharoah Stakes on October 5 at Santa Anita so with that bullet they may run him. It would be fun if he won!!
Ferocious is nominated for the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity on October 5 at Keeneland so you’ll have to watch that race as well. Ha ha
Quietside is nominated for the Darley Alcibiades on October 4 at Keeneland and Non Compliant is nominated for the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita on October 5.
Don’t forget the great race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, will be run at ParisLongchamp on October 6. Allez!! Shin Emperor.
David, I hope not. He’s much better than his last, but he’s not ready for these – there’s no need to rush him.
He’s also nominated to the two turf stakes, but I don’t think either makes sense if they think he’s a Derby horse. There’s an MSW on 10/14 at 1 mile tgst I hope they are pointing to
My eyes will be on Keeneland!
By the way, Glee won by 15 1/2 lengths – I think she’ll get a strong Beyer
Yes. Betsy. Glee may not have beaten the best 2 year olds around but 15 lengths is impressive in anyone’s language. A real fillip for Honor A. P..
77 Beyer for Glee, David – pretty darn good! There have been timing issues at Remington, so we’ll see if this is correct
About Rank – he actually has a very high knee action, like Skip Away. It’s probably more of a turf stride – so now I’m kind of curious to see how he’d do on turf
Yes, Betsy, and the white stockings somewhat accentuate the action with Rank.
Perhaps, the Grade 2, Golden Rod in November with prize money of 400,000 could be an option for Glee.
Fierceness and Quietside are in for the Breeders’ Futurity and Alcibiades respectively. Fingers crossed.
I can’t see how I’ll be able to sleep this Saturday night – Sunday morning – racing, racing, racing the world over and the Ballet Saturday night as well. Ha ha it’ll be fun trying.
Another great read, Steve! Thank you!
David, I was just going to post to you!
She completely dominated – and I think the time will come up strong, though there’s no other 6.5F to compare it to. I’m so glad that once she broke sharply, Stewart sent her right to the lead – she’s a fast filly, but tractable, too
Hopefully the first of many SW for HAP. I can’t wait to see where see goes next!
Snead (Nyquist-Raffle Ticket by A.P. Indy) and Stretch Ride (Street Sense-Q Go Girl by Quality Road) are running today in the 9th race at Churchill (4:54 pm ET). Snead is reappearing since a promising runner-up effort behind Track Phantom in the Gun Runner Stakes on December 23.
Stretch Ride was undefeated (in two starts) going to the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club where he came in third only 3 lengths behind Honor Marie; but was sidelined afterwards.
Snead started his career in two turf races but ended up running better on dirt with 2 easy wins and the aforementined second in his Stakes debut.
Both Snead and Stretch Ride were promising 2-year-olds included in many watching lists/virtual stables as viable interests for the Triple Crown series.
I hope they come back in good order and can remain healthy to enrich the older horse division next year…
three-year-old Stretch Ride and Snead could not be better than 4th and 5th (nose appart) against older horses.
Stretch Ride attended a fast pace but did not have enough in the homestretch while Snead closed from last to pass the former but after the finish line. Horace Mann won clocking an outstanding 1: 35 2/5…
Interesting to see how they move forward from this new starting point in their careers… I am keeping them in my virtual stable anyway …
I know there wasn’t much pace on the race yesterday, but Senor Buscador was hard ridden midway in the race, and only around 7 lengths back….he is a deep closer, that was taken out of his comfort zone, LET him sit way back and LET him close!
I saw that in the replay, and I’m with you for sure! Junior A was elsewhere riding for Bill Mott. He’s put the best ride on Senor, IMO.
Three cheers to Three Technique, on his third try in the Ack Ack Stakes he wins it. Third in the 2022 running of the Ack Ack, third again in the 2023 running but in 2024 the old guy at 7 years takes the prize and heads on to Del Mar. in 2023, Three Technique won the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes.
With 39 starts to his credit and nearly 1.2 million in prize money will the racing gods finally anoint Three Technique a Grade 1 winner at Del Mar? Racing is all about dreams and lots of luck.
Great race call by Frank Miramahdi today, in The Cali Crown, As good as it gets, in mid stretch…
Yes Matthew, Miramahdi makes the race exciting from start to finish, the heart pumps with anticipation. What happened to Muth? Any news?
Is Miramahdi calling the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar for a change or is still Trevor Denman, again?
I’m not sure if Trevor is the voice of the Breeders Cup….isn’t it Collmus? But Frank is #1, he is a natural, he is a player and he handicaps them…his calls are spontaneous and when he revs it up he is really good ..
Frank is very good but I am still a Trevor man !!!
I watch the Breeders’ Cup races on the Breeders’ Cup website – no ads, lots of coverage of the horses, interesting discussions and Frank Miramahdi called the races from Santa Anita last year.
Sometimes you’re lucky, imagine buying a Tapit yearling(filly) for only 100,000 then by late September the 2 year old filly has won nearly 160,000 dollars in prize money and, even better, is already a stakes winner.
Pure Majestic, indeed.
The Winchell homebred Tapit 2 year old colt, Preposition, in Race 7 at Churchill Downs on Saturday is worth following. Watch the race, an incredible run by Preposition flashing home to just miss at 6f.
Dornoch out of BCC.
Retired to Spendthrift, bone bruising.
Spendthrift got champion Forte last October , Zandon last November and now Dornoch… they are added to a list of 25 other nice stallions led by Into Mischief. The majority of its sires are relatively young …. they are betting big on Bolt D’Oro and Forte …
and Authentic is in high regard there as well…
Spendthrift does have have a very nice stallion roster going into the 2025 breeding season.
I do not hold bone bruising against Dornach, it can happen to say horse regardless of the horse sport.
Greatest Honour is also at Spendthrift, with that pedigree you wish him every success.
Yes Davids… his first foals will be 2-year-old next year … the son of Tapit got a great female family ..perhaps the best of them all….his 7,500 fee is truly a bargain…
Nelson, Greatest Honour’s first book of mares was 2023 – 178 mares bred. First foals, 2024 but I can appreciate the anticipation.
Spendthrift are giving Greatest Honour every chance. Fingers crossed.
Arrgh, just saw this. I didn’t think Dornoch would win the Classic, but I would have enjoyed rooting for him. If Fierceness throws in another clunker, he still has a chance to be the 3YO champion.
Great day for South America today… the Chilean bred Mufasa (Practical Joke-Miscanti (CHI) by SCAT DADDY) took the historic Vosburgh very easily and the Argentinian Subsanador has just won the million of the California Crown in an electrifying finish with National Treasure and Newgate. A thrilling head separated the three Grade One winners.
Mike “Money” Smith is still shining at the highest levels taking the two last Stakes held at Santa Anita … I was delighted to see the veteran overpowering another Hall of Famer in Johny Velazquez and the rising star Flavien Prat.
You may want to watch the replays many times for a good shot of enjoyment…
Senor Buscador and Muth dissapointed…
Mufusa, was impressive in the Vosburgh, haven’t seen the California Crown yet but your description of the race soubds great.
You will enjoy the replay for sure… The California Crown will have more relevance to the BCC than the historic Woodward … and I don’t think the Lukas Classic (to be run in two hours) will have a say in the apex Stakes…Hit Show, Rattle N’ Roll, Disarm, Warrior Johny and Cooke Creek are second tier at best…
Thanks Nelson, I was greeted early with the disappointment that Man City had only drawn with Newcastle at Newcastle and lost top position in the Premier League.
The stamina influenced South American, Japanese, and European runners in the Breeders’ Cup races could be quite dominant at Del Mar. Best of luck.
Muth stopped way too soon He either bled or has a palate issue. With lack of transparency wonder it we will ever know? Newgate ran very good race as did National Treasure. Should set them both up for their next race.
Subsansador ran an Awesome race and looks like Mandella has a live one in him. Not too worried about Senor Buscador should run better with 1 1/4 mile.
I was surprised how large Newgate has become, he ran lights out, on the gallop out he tired noticeably so he needed the race, that is a ten furlong horse!
Yes Matthew … Newgate will be better next time especially at 10-furlong … he was the biggest horse in the field with a weight of 1268 pounds (575 Kg). He will likely be among the top 4 favorites in the BCC.
Oh I doubt that, Nelson, Newgate will be a nice fat 10-1, on first Sat in November…Subsanador also….(ca ching..)…
You are right Matthew… I was forgetting the Japanese …
Congratulations Nelson.
Tapit Trice wins the Woodward Stakes and increases his prize money to over 1.7 million. It’s rare that a 1.3 million yearling will surpass the initial outlay but this exquisite son of Tapit has managed to do so in spades.
Whisper Hill must be thankful that this pricey son of Tapit has the potential to pay back their massive investment in racing. Good for everyone.
Despite the short field and slop, I expect they’ll try the BC Classic with him, don’t you? Even a placing in the Classic looks good for him. Mandy Pope has spent SO much money in the industry, and seems to have had a run of rotten luck. It wouldn’t hurt my feelings to see one of hers finally have a legitimate big day.
I would like to see them keep Dylan Davis on Tapît Trice, whatever they do next.
Katy, the Breeders’ Cup Classic seems certain for Tapit Tice after Pletcher’s comments. Nothing to lose and everything to gain Tapit Trice has the Grade 1 win and has won two Graded races at four, one a prestigious race.
Surely, Dylan Davis will keep the mount. Mandy Pope is playing the long game but with Charge It and Tapit Trice the dice might roll her way faster than expected. Good for her.
Impressive win by Tapit Trice to win the Woodward to reel in Skippy and win going away. Wonder if TT will try the BCC. He’s in good form and and will love the 1 1/4 distance of the BCC. Right now I like City of Troy and Fierceness In my P5. Im keeping an eye on Forever Young and Muth. TT is flying a bit under the radar and could be a good price if he runs in the BCC. What do you think of TT chances if he runs in the Classic Steve? The race looks to be coming up loaded.
I won’t discount him completely but the race was won on a sloppy track and carried 124 lbs.
I agree about TT, wouldn’t mind at all if he won in November, he’s never fulfilled his early promise. Skippy was close enough to also be considered, I was pulling for him, he’s a fan favorite.
I’m not sure Del Mar would suit Tapit Trice but he’s bound to be sent as his next race will probably be his last.
If a closer wins at Del Mar they are much the best….I heard Bob was pointing to the Dirt Mile, with National Treasure, if he sends him onto The Classic they will get more pace—I am bullish on Sierra Leone! Favorites have won both Del Mar Classics, (Gun Runner and Knicks Go) they were good horses, and I think Sierra is a good horse….but he needs pace….
Yes, Joe, another impressive win by Tapit Trice this year in the prestigious Woodward Stakes and Dylan Davis seems a better pilot that his previous jockeys.
Must have been of grave disappointment for Tapit Trice’s detractors having to swallow humble pie once again. lol. Ha ha
Steve,
Thanks again for another thought provoking article. The similarities between the two is remarkable but at this point I feel Sierra Leone is just a step better than Zandon. I do feel he left money on the by not running in the Pennsylvania Derby, a race I feel Sierra Leone could have won and still have time to recover for the BCC. The BCC will be a tough race for him to win though the race should set up for him.
I have always liked City of Troy as he seems to have both stamina and speed but the only question will be will he take to the Del Mar racing surface??? I hope he stays healthy to make it here.
I like Muth today to win the California Crown. He should improve off his last race. It should be a good race.
Good Luck to all who Betting today !!!
The question is will any horse take to the Del Mar racing surface?
So true…. So true!!!
Like Forrest Gump once said about Life. It’s like a box of chocolates. … You never know what you’re gonna get !
Congratulations to Adrienne DeVaux, who just saddled her first starter AND first winner (Shoot the Nickel) at Aqueduct in today’s 2nd race. You go, girl! The Violence 2YO looked pretty nice too — came back strongly to win after being headed in mid-stretch.
Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher is not only an eight time Champion Trainer but he posseses the record of developing outstanding Stallions this Century.
Considering ONLY his Grade One horses, You can easily count at least 32 of his Grade One males becoming also the sires of Black Type winners.
I will mention only a few of the most notable ones among Pletcher’s Brigade of Outstanding Stallions just to demonstrate their longevity and productiveness.
More than Ready, Speightstown, English Channel, Super Saver, Scat Daddy, Uncle Mo, Quality Road and Constitution have foaled 12686 foals (average of 1586 per head). Uncle Mo, Quality Road and Constitution are still going strong in the market and the new ones like Army Mule, Vino Rosso, Audible and Tapwrit are starting to harvest their own Stakes progeny…
The impact of Pletcher’s sires on the breeding arena expands to countries like Japan, South Africa, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Mexico.
Todd Pletcher got 127 Grade One winners in his resume but it would be fair to include that he is also the greatest producers of Grade One Stallions as well…
Nelson,
You got to remember Pletcher gets the cream of crop with horses of great pedigree. I wouldn’t call him a great producer of sires they were destine that way.
You got a Fair point. However, I am talking in relative terms …
I have compared the number of chief horses of other big trainers (with barns full of the best pedigrees as well) that ended up being top sires and Pletcher is way above them.
Whether those Pletcher horses would have been Grade One winners first and then great sires with another trainer anyway is a matter of debate. The fact is that currently his numbers are outstanding but other elite trainers could surpass him in the breeding field with time…
You must have talent to get the big owners to support you and Pletcher got a lot of that since having four horses in his first Derby back in 2000… which by the way were not “blue bloods” precisely…
Nelson, with Tapit Trice’s win in the Woodward Stakes today emphasised that the potential of new sire prospects are just around the corner for Todd Pletcher.
Tapit Trice, the son of Tapit costing 1.3 million as a yearling, Grade 1 winner of over 1.7 million in prize and still counting is primed to be great demand when he retires.
Not to forget Fierceness as well. Ha ha
Yes Davids… If Pletcher’s business model continues delivering I won’t be surprised to see other Stakes horses like Forte, Mindframe, Kingsbarns, Charge It, Mo Donegal, Known Agenda and even Bright Future having also a good run at producing Stakes horses. Not sure if we can say that Life is Good is a sire “graduated” from Pletcher’s method…
Pletcher also delivers good cadre of broodmares producers … but this is another stat I have not compiled yet…
Yes Nelson, excellent point, the broodmare impact may be even more influential over time.
Nelson Maan– Thanks for a great assessment of Todd Pletcher and his stallions. Todd Pletcher also has been humble in reaching out from advice from other horsemen. His father is still working with his younger horses. And he has the top person in the industry working with his horses in the gate; please excuse my memory lapse. He used to be the top at NYRA and the late H. Allen Jerkens sent him his way.
Thanks for your reply Terri.
I believe Pletcher operation is a great example of successful management and leadership.
One can easily draw lessons to be applied to other enterprises…
When we divulge the excellence of the professionals of the sport we are implicitly promoting in part the sustainability of that activity…
Thanks Nelson Maan.
Very often I embark on a man in the mirror moment. I do so to determine if I am over thinking some issues that contribute to judgements that are not necessarily based the available factual evidence.
Below I highlighted the glaring similarity between the careers of Chad Brown’s 2017 & 2022 Preakness winners, with particular reference to how both colt’s careers ended.
What was the prospect of two Preakness winners from the same barn, finishing last in what proved to be their final race, beaten a combined 103L?
I have concluded that this isn’t a coincidental occurrence. But rather the result of a Chemical Condition Program that not only produced positive results but also devastating side effects.
Was the above a reasonable conclusion?
There are some occurrences that do not merits being regarded as coincidence. The probably of the above referenced occurrence is off the scale. Therefore, the above doesn’t satisfy the criteria for coincidental.
The reason I have advance might not be the real one. But given the pressure that big training outfit must be under to produce for deep pocket owners. Science plays a significant role in the conditioning program for horses.
NB: Left Bank (2002) and Lawyer Ron (2007) both won the Whitney (G1) in track record time whilst being trained and conditioned by TP.
Afte retirement, both met their demise due to complications whilst recovering from colic surgery. The probability of 2 record setting Whitney winers meeting their demise in a similar fashion is off the scale. This occurrence doesn’t satisfy the criteria for coincidental.
Both were exposed to the same powerful conditioning program during their racing careers.
Fortunately Spurgeon just has a bone bruise. Whew
I just want to say that Kenny is awesome – I e-mailed him not long after I saw the colt was scratched, and he responded right away
William Mott’s 2yr. old colt, Sovereignty, by Into Mischief, out of a Bernardini, is entered in a 90K maiden race at Belmont today and listed as the 2nd favorite on the morning line. In his initial start, he closed from 10th to finish 4th to earn a Brisnet late pace figure of 101, the highest in today’s field of maidens. The added distance (1 mile) should be just what the doctor ordered for this Godolphin homebred colt whose pedigree reflects the personification of class and stamina.
The race, (6th) on today’s card at Belmont, goes off at 3:37 EST.
Edit: “out of a Bernardini mare”
The other Into Mischief and 6/5 favorite, Praetor won fending off the powerful closing kick of Sovereignty. The Godolphin prospect ran the final furlong in 12.45 but fell short by a meager neck clocking a dazzling 1:36.14 for the mile.
Both Praetor and Sovereignty had very similar debut as they were severely impeded at the break and finished very strongly in the homestretch. This time they enjoyed clean breaks and uneventful trips and showed their potential.
As you noted, it seems like Sovereignty will be better at longer distances but Praetor could also cheerish going longer (thanks to .his broodmare sire Curlin).
Anyway, both are very talented and are in the good hands of Chad Brown and Bill Mott … our virtual stables is indeed enriched with these two new additions..
Go back and watch Sovereignty;s gallop-out. Keep watching until the end. I have no idea when he finally got pulled up he was so far in front and still drawing off,
Good point Steve… Yes indeed….!!! I haven’t noticed that Soveregnty was like 8 lengths ahead of Praetor and still going on 200 yards after the finish line…. it is always good to pay attention to the gallop-outs.
Godolphin seems to have its Derby horse already…
*Hadn’t noticed
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
Yes indeed, Sovereignty could be a very special colt moving forward. It will be interesting to see where Mott will point for his next outing.
Lynda King, hope you and yours (both people and critters) are riding this out in good shape.
We have been very lucky – just a small sumac laying over on the kid horse’s fence, already moved and fixed. Plenty of leaves and debris, but just a few miles west, they got hammered with many downed trees, creeks flooding their bridges, and many folks still without power. Our closest Waffle House closed, so you know some bad stuff was going down.
Mother-in-law is in western NC, and she says she’s never heard the wind howl like this, or seen the trees bend that way. (To be fair, she slept through it when Hugo just kept marching inland, 1989.)
Auguste Rodin is retiring to stud after the Japan Cup. Fitting for them to run him there.
Glad you made it through the storm OK, Katy, and I hope you did too, Lynda. From the maps, it looked like the entire Gulf of Mexico (sans salt) was being dumped on the southeast. Even Louisville might flood. Yikes.
Katy, I’m due to spend some time in Hot Springs, NC in a couple weeks, which is probably around the area you described. For some reason, hurricanes often seem to precede my visits to various places. So much for fall foliage, but that is a small concern compared to what many are dealing with.
Katy and all. We made it through.
Horses, donkey and goats are ok.
A dead tree did fall on my barn, just grazed it, no apparent damage.
No power since @4:30 this AM. Two substations damaged. No ETA on when power will be back. Could be 48 hours.
17,000 w/o power in this area.
My family in Florida is OK. They live close to Daytona Beach. Family in Virginia OK. They have had multiple tornadoes today.
The brunt of the storm hit about 3:00 AM. Torrential rain and sustained winds of 35 but gusts up to 60.
Feel truly blessed that we and the critters made it through.
Hope all is well with everyone.
Helene was a monster.
So glad you and yours are all OK. I imagine the storm left quite a mess. Went through a Cat 3 hurricane in NC in the 1980s. No damage to our little house, but got so much rain that all the interior (plaster) walls mildewed. I remember the following month as one long slog of cleanup for the entire town. Going to be much, much worse for folks from the Gulf coast to Indianapolis this time. What a storm.
Ms B, Western North Carolina took a hard hit.
Asheville is accessible only by air.
Chimney Rock community destroyed.
They are evacuating Lake Lure. The dam is getting ready to collapse.
Boone is under 5 feet of water.
Not sure about Shately Springs.
My power came back on at 11:30 AM.
My refrigerator held cold and I think all my frozen food is going to be OK.
The problem with the 2 substations was the main transmission lines that are owned by Georgia Power.
Our power comes 3 sources, 2 hydroelectric dams and a nuclear power plant operated by Georgia Power.
My husband had to drive 36 miles round trip to top off gas tank this morning. People were in long lines waiting to get gas.
First thing I did when power came on was to make a pot of coffee.
The stars were beautiful last night. Light pollution even here makes it hard to see many of the constellations. The town where I live and the area around me was totally dark.
I guess the best we can do sometimes is look for those silver lining!
Thank you and Katy for caring!
Lynda, I am so glad to hear that you, your husband, and the animals are good. I couldn’t believe it about Chimney Rock/Lake Lure.
My sister and her family are still without power. We took her our generator, and she is strategically running it to cool her fridge… and make coffee.
Guess I breathed my sighs of relief too soon. My little buckskin horse colicked this afternoon, so if anyone has good thoughts for him, they’d be appreciated. So far, he’s holding his own, but he’s a horse, so this needs to be FAR in the rear view before I’m satisfied.
Missed any racing today, tending to my own friend.
Katy, hope your horse is doing well.
As I look at the photos and videos of all the devastation this morning I find myself being deeply humbled by the fact that other than the fallen tree and being without power for so long that it is nothing, absolutely nothing compared to what has happened in North Carolina, Tennessee and my home state of Virginia.
Our Appalachian Moutains are one of God’s greatest creations but they can quickly become death traps in these hurricanes that come inland.
It will take decades for the region to recover and parts of it will never recover.
Lynda, the horse seems fine so far, touch wood.
I know exactly what you mean, as far as feeling humble. It can border on helpless at times, because we want to help. I have been checking in with friends from upstate SC to the NC-VA line, and I am heartbroken for so many folks. We went through the big flood in central SC in 2015, and these disasters are incomprehensible if you haven’t seen them first hand. Life-changing, at their most benign.
They’re saying I-40 will be closed for years. The loss of life, homes, infrastructure, and environmental resources and beauty is just beginning to be understood.
Kudos to Appalachian State for opening their dining halls to anyone in need of meals and/or wi-fi – both campuses. That’s class.
Stay safe, everybody.
I hope things improve soon. I live in South Florida, so I really know what it is like. I am glad you have your power back on.
Thanks Terri.
The freezer was packed so it held and no thawing after 31 hours of power outage.
Need to find either a battery back up or battery operated nebulizer for my husband. He had to drive over to the EMS office to use his nebulizer twice a day. They were running off a generator.
We had water both hot and cold. Gas water heater. Wish I had a gas cookstove. Could have cooked on it.
We had a propane Coleman camp stove years ago when we camped a lot. Thinking about getting another one.
RE: 120K maiden race, 5 1/2 furlongs, at Churchill, today, (R4)
Troubleshooting, by Not This Time, out of an Into Mischief mare, is a Donamire Farm homebred that appears to have a lot going for him in his debut race. His pedigree reflects at ton of class, top and bottom. He’s been working steadily for trainer Gregory Foley, and Tyler Gaffalione will be in the saddle.
Troubleshooting looks enticing at 4-1, IMO.
Thanks for the info Bill.
I am surprised to see Asmussen’s Perfect Magic as the 3 to 1 favorite after two so-so starts on the turf and against a group of debutants with A1 pedigrees. Troubleshooting is the second favorite but could be easily the post-time favorite in two hours from now…
An intriguing one is Pretty Capable (Tapit-Love on the Run by Empire Maker) debuting at 5 1/2 furlongs despite having a two-turn pedigree. Seems like Amoss thinks he is fast enough for this sprinting challenge at 8 to 1 in the morning line. I would think Pretty Capable could have debuted in the mile of the 8th race also at Churchill tomorrow … but the trainer got another one there named Into Thin Air (Into Mischief- Tiz Breathtaking by Tiznow) in that race tomorrow…
Again, when you see sons of Justify, McKinzie, Not This Time, Quality Road and Practical Joke debuting at odds from 5 to 12 to 1 you may have a shot at good pay outs in that race.
I suspect many of the (future) best 3-year-olds of next year will be debuting the last quarter of this year…
You’re welcome, Nelson
You make excellent points, and I certainly agree that Pretty Capable has a two-turn pedigree with Empire Maker being his dam’s sire. His tail-female side reflects a significant amount of class and stamina as well. If he breaks well from the #1 hole, he could be in contention early on.
Bottom line, Pretty Capable is certainly worth a win wager at 8-1.
Good Luck, Nelson.
Riddler, the #4 horse, opened at 5-1. He’s the current favorite at 8/5.
His sire, Practical Joke was a graded sprinter, in which case, Riddler could be restricted to sprint and middle-distance races.
Pretty Capable (#1) scratched.
Ok, Into Thin Air is an awesome name – taken from the dam, but obviously named after the book
Tomorrow’s 6th at BEL/AQU is absolutely loaded. My favorite, Spurgeon, will be overlooked again, but he’s really good – and I expect a big performance
Surgeon has my interest!!!
Spurgeon
Unfortunately he scratched by private vet due to injury
I hope it’s not serious – it clearly happened after he worked a few days ago- but I’m crushed. Not only did I have Derby dreams for him, but HAP really needs to have a few winners, and a few step up to look like potential big horses for next year. He’s barely gotten chances with breeders now – he’s not going to get many more.
Thanks for update,Betsy.
Hope Spurgeon runs well for you, Betsy! I like the favorite, Classicist, because of his pedigree (and because Pletcher does well with first and second time starters. He’s by Curlin out of Playtime, a daughter of Storm Flag Flying (and thus his fourth dam is the incomparable Personal Ensign). AND he’s a homebred. Ever since Steve pointed out how well homebreds do in the Derby, I always add that to my personal notes on upcoming 2YOs.
Thanks! Sadly he’s hurt, and scratched, so I’m going to drown my sorrows in a turkey and avocado sandwich 😭
Good luck !
My pick, Troubleshooting, set the pace, but was overtaken by Perfect Magic who made a left turn leaving the gate. I was somewhat surprised the stewards ignored it. That said, the fast-closing 3rd place finisher, Kraken, appeared to be the best horse in the race, moving forward, IMO.
His sire and dam sire were both KD winners. Keep an eye on Kraken down the road.
Yes Bill as you noted, Kraken was practically stopped at the break by the chain reaction caused by Perfect Magic. That blast left Kraken about 10 lengths behind the frontrunner in the first quarter.
Kraken finishing third only 2 1/4 lentgths behind the winner speaks volumes about his future specially in two turn races. The son of Justify ran the last 1.5 furlongs in a dazzling 17.52 seconds… Kraken is an exciting one to watch indeed…
The stewards at Churchill have to be one of the most incompetent group of racing officials. At least they should have posted the inquiry sign to look at the start. I mean, it was so obvious to anyone watching that Perfect Magic caused beaucoup interference at the break. Even the jock on Perfect Magic (Eric Asmussen) kept looking at the board on his return to the winners’ circle looking for the inquiry sign. He knew he committed a foul. Gee wiz, already!
Only 4 entries in the Woodward.
Sad.
The board has only 4 slots.
I have no idea what you are talking about.
A failed attempt to be funny. Placing on the Tote board 1st to 4th.
At least the California Crown got five (5) Grade One contenders out of the seven in the field.
You may remember that the Woodward had only 6 competitors in 2020 and 2021. In 2022 there was also only 4 horses with Life is Good winning in a workout-like manner.
It is worth trying to understand why the historical Woodward has lost preeminence and stature over the last 13 years…
Woeful.
TP’s barn has been associated with 6 winners of the (G2) Pilgrim. See below –
2023 – Agate Road – Previous start – MSW win
2022 – Major Dude – Previous start – 3rd Sapling stakes (BT)
2021 – Annapolis – Previous start debut MSW win
2017 – Seabhac – Previous start – 4th in MSW
2089 – Eskendereya – Previous start – 2nd MSW debut
2007 – The Leopard – Previous start – debut MSW win
Two of TP’s Pilgrim winners broke their maiden in the race. TP is back with Noble Confessor a twice defeated Noble Mission colt in the 2024 renewal of the Pilgrim. The colt 5th in a MSW last out and has been assigned a ML of 6/1 probably out of share respect for TP who has saddled the winners of last 3 renewals of the Pilgrim.
Why would TP enter the Pilgrim with a colt featuring such a resume, with the retainment of a leading rider? Are we in store for yet another of his unfancied entrants springing an upset?
This where my instincts suggest I should go all in on this TP entrant. However, I am experiencing difficulties switching my fancy from the Chad Brown trained Early Adopter.
The colt’s record reflects a debut win over 8 1/2F on a firm turf course at Saratoga, in a decent time of 1:43 plus. But his debut win isn’t what attracted my attention, but rather his dam sire Dalakhani.
Dalakhani’s daughters are responsible for 5 group 1 winners and 58 stakes scores overall. Who can forget the exciting 2019 British Champion 2YO Pinantubo who is out of Lava Flow by Dalakhani. A progeny from a Dalakhani mare that displays early potential is to be followed as the best is yet to come.
I am hoping for a good break and an uneventful trip for Early Adopter. If his 6/1 ML odds hold, I should secure a decent return on my wager with him on top.
Hey Counter Point
With respect to the Pilgrim field, Zulu Kingdom checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
I find it interesting that you didn’t even mention this undefeated colt, listed at 8/5 on the morning line. A win in the G2 Pilgrim, would certainly stamp Zulu Kingdom as one of the top contenders in the BC Juvenile Turf.
Just as a suggestion, check out the video replay of his win in the G3 With Anticipation Stakes, on Aug. 29th. I think you’ll be impressed.
Hi Bil,
Zulu Kingdom won the With Anticipation in a fast time with the last 1/4F completed in fast 5.86. He appears to be a nice colt that merits consideration.
From a pedigree perspective I give Early Adopter the edge. Early Adopter was purchased out of Book #1 of the high-profile yearling sale. He could be better than his MSW win reelects.
At a ML of 6/1, I am inclined to ignore the more accomplished entrants and take a shot.
Good luck, Nelson.
Regarding Adare Manor’s retirement, i believe her last race was her best. It seems her trainer has been on a run of bad luck with his best horses lately. I have been especially impressed with Adare Manor, Maymun and Parenting, and hope to see the latter two next year. To the trainer’s credit, and contrary to some of his critics, he has not run them when they weren’t at their best.
As a fan, I am grateful to Adare Manor’s team for letting her run for four years at the highest levels. Her Grade 1 wins came at ages of 4 and 5.
We keep saying that we need throwback horses for the good of the sport and Adare Manor was an excellent modern (close) representation of the iron horses of the past.
I hope she does better than many Grade 1 mares in the breeding arena…
Todd, you can add Nysos to that list. With Adare Manor, it will be interesting to see which sire is chosen depending on who buys her.
I would send Adare Manor to Medaglia d’Oro before they decide to pension him.
Katy, maybe for the first foal as they sometimes are smaller than usual but I’d be worried about the size of the offspring.
A mating with Tapit gets an A with TrueNicks and the success of Flightline with that cross is an incentive no doubt.
Fort Bragg is back after 1o months. It’ll be interesting to see how Fort Bragg performs in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes. Race 9, September 28, 2024. Fort Bragg was third in this race last year.
Speed Boat Beach has had a few workouts so he should return soon but Hejazi is still unsighted for 9 months.
David’s Fort Bragg drew poorly, the rail vs some fast horses. I think he’s coming into this race in top form, and he will need to be—the Cal bred Big City Liggts just ran a good third, in the Pat O’Brien, beaten by two good ones….
Yes, Matthew, the wide post is a concern especially in California but let’s just hope for a positive return with a win a bonus.
Sorry, ‘inside post’ not wide.
Adare Manor has been retired and will sold at the November 03 Fasig-Tipton Sale.
Baffert stated “she owes us nothing” and that the retirement was more about timing, that she had gotten “light” and was going to need more time to run in the BC Distaff.
That gives more power to Thorpedo Anna in the Distaff, doesn’t Lynda? I’m so happy for Adare Manor. I hope she has a long and safe career as a broodmare. May she end up in good hands.
Ms B the BC website has probable contenders for the Distaff that includes Idiomatic, Candied, Flying Connection, Raging Sea and two foreign breds, Awesome Result (Japan) and Che Evasora (Argentina). Randomized a possible.
I have not checked out the last two.
I think Adare Manor would have been Anna’s top competition.
I too hope Adare Manor lands in a soft spot. John Stewart might buy her, he is steadily building his broodmare herd.
“She owes us nothing”. Shocker! Code for unable to squeeze anything else from her.
You are definitely not wrong Mike, I totally agree.
Thanks Deacon! At least some reside in reality,instead of those who are star struck!
Is City of Troy the best 3Yo colt in Europe?
Despite the enthusiasms regarding this colt, I am not big on him. He covers ground effortlessly, but I am of the opinion he is the best of modest crop of routers.
The Godolphin colt that defeated him in the 2000 Guineas might just be the best miler of the crop. But the colt that I think will emerge as the top dog will be Ombudsman.
He is undefeated in 3 starts and trained by John and Thady Gosden. He was sired by 25/1 upset winner of the 2000 Guineas winner, Night of Thunder a son of Dubawi.
The big question is. Why has this talented colt been kept out of the TC Series in Britain?
Given the colt’s trainer, he must have been deemed to be late developer. I am of the opinion City of Troy will meet his division match if and when the two meet.
City of Troy’s trainer thinks he’s a tad better than Giants Causeway, which if true makes him pretty darn good..
I don’t see any Tiznows in the prospective field, do you Matthew?
Ms Blacktype & Matthew, the most respected adjudicator on racehorse quality, Timeform, has given City of Troy a rating of 130 which is the same top rating that Giant’s Causeway was given.
Economics, who just won the Irish Champion Stakes has a rating of 126, the placings Auguste Rodin 125, Shin Emperor 123.
Timeform’s rating for Fierceness is 127, Forever Young and Sierra Leone are both on 122.
Davids, those figs look about right to these American eyes.
Yes, Ms Blacktype. Over the years, I’ve found Timeform’s ratings the most consistently fair when rating racehorses on both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Interesting information!
What’s the Timefom rating for the Godolphin colt Ombudsman?
I consider assigned ratings meaningless. COT’s 130 doesn’t mean he will emerge the victory if and when he meets Ombudsman. An assigned number and a race are worlds apart.
I have observed both colts and have made a judgment call. Further, the comments of Willima Buick after the colt’s last win were extremely insightful.
We are all opinion writers using different bits of information in the formulation of our opinions.
Ombudsman’s offical rating is 112. He only scraped through to win the Prix du Prince d’Orange (Group 3) by 1/2 a length a few weeks back and was lucky not to be taken down.
Good luck with your support for Ombudsman, he obviously has a long way to go to complete with the top rated runners like City of Troy who has a rating of 130 and has won Group 1 races.
Time form has Sierra Leone getting soundly beaten…. Matthew W not so sure, about that!..
Matthew, the rating is on a horse’s ability and his/her last performance. Horses start from zero then go up/down accordingly.
Obviously, it is difficult to offer a rating on young horses that haven’t raced much.
The ratings are not really so much a betting guide as a means to seperate horses in races so that they are not lopsided. The ratings don’t please everyone. Ha ha
The comparison of Sierra Leone and Zandon is valid. The career of the colt falls into the category of a mirror image
There is a major question that merits being asked.
Could the unrealized expectation for Zandon and the ensuing unrealized exception for Sierra Leone be no fault of the two colts but rather a chemical conditioning program to which both have been subjected?
The reference of a Chemical Conditioning Program is likely to be viewed as an unsubstantiated accusation of an enhancement program with negative side.
Further, I am aware of the proactive Cristopher Hitchens quote – That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
So, why is attention focused on this issue? The inexplicable similarity of the racing careers of two retired colts from the barn of Chad Brown.
In 2017 Cloud Computing won the Preakness his 4th starts. His previous start was a 3rd place finish in the Wood Memorial. In his subsequent 4 starts, he finished 5th, 8th, 4th and 7th and last by 40 1/2L. Retirement followed.
In 2022 Erly Voting won the Preakness in his 4th start. His previous was 2nd place finish in the Wood Memorial. In his subsequent 2 starts he finished 4th and 8th and last by 63 3/4L. Retirement followed.
I am not a coincidence denier. But I having hard time believing the above coincidental. There has to be something that gave rise to the similarity of Preakness wins and downward spiral thereafter.
The story of Zandon’s unrealized expectation and Sierra Leon not meeting expectation after immense early promise, speaks for itself.
Sierra Leone has not ever ran a bad race….Zandon started to hang some late, Sierra continues to come running late …when he catches a :46 and change half, look out! That is, if he is ridden like a closer, and not urged early….
Counter Point– I think that the reasons for Sierra Leone’s bearing into his left were initially inadequately addressed by his trainer. There could have been physical development issues and behavioral issues that needed to be addressed before he ran his first race.
After Quality Road had his meltdown at Santa Anita (in the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic), he refused to be loaded onto the plane. His trainer had to send him to Belmont via trailer. However, the first person he called for advice was the late H. Allen Jerkens. (PS I heard Todd Pletcher tell the story at the chief’s memorial service at Gulfstream Park.)
Although the Chief was no longer alive, there were a number of people his trainer could call for recommendations.
Steve,
Can you assure me that my post which appeared to have been the first on this blog didn’t result in the disappearance of the blog for a while?
I never saw it but I wll inquire about it
When you commented the column had gone live prematurly then was taken down for a few minutes
Ushba Tesero (2nd) and Derma Sotogake (5th) both came up short in their respective BCC prep races.
Mixed reviews on their performances.
The Jockey of the Hai winner, William Barows, is Ryusei Sakai the regular pilot of no other than Forever Young. Again, the pacecetter had it his way all the way… William Barrows is a true 9-furlong especialist.
I feel like the top 3-year-olds this year are in general better than the older horses.
However, Ushba Tesoro’s prep (2nd after closing furiously as usual) was very good considering he is better at 10 furlongs.
Derma Sotogake was not soo good but his excuse is not having run in Japan since December 2022… he has been pure international for two years now… Let’s see what is decided regarding coming to Del Mar. He will be taking important betting money anyway based on his second last year’s BCC…
Yes, Ushba Tesero had the better of the two races. I did watch a replay. Did not watch Derma’s
Will be interested in how Forever Young does in his race this is upcoming.
I wouldn’t be discouraged by either performance. In fact, Ushba Tesoro’s race was just what you wanted from a prep race going 10 furlongs in the next race.
1,800 meters is the winner’s , William Barows, pet distance. Chin up!!
Lynda King–I wonder if there training prior to these races were not an intensive as for the BC itself.
Currently, in no particular order, the following 12 colts are on my 2025 KD watch list.
1) Jonathan’s Way
2) Gaming
3) Showcase
4) Optical
5) Getaway Car
6) Mitty’s Griddy
7) McKinzie Street
8) East Avenue
9) Ferocious
10) Chancer McPatrick
11) Uncaged
12) Mo Plex
Any thoughts on the 3rd place finisher behind Showcase?
Bottom line, Smoken Wicked, (3rd in the Saratoga Special) was no match for Showcase. Enough said.
Good luck, Counter Point.
I like Senor Buscador…I think this week he won’t get much pace, three of the faster horses are trained by Bob, National Treasure looks like he may get an easy lead, with Big Money Mike Smith getting up alongside with Subsanador, around the half mile pole, and I like Subsanador to get the money!..
Yes, Matthew, Senor Buscador seems to be the forgotten horse leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic with all the discussion of City of Troy, the various Japanese horses, and the US three year olds.
Senor Buscador has a formidable record in big races.
I think he prefers less than 10 furlongs, and Saturday might not have enough pace, but I will play a Senor/Subsanador exacta box, including National Treasure in a tri box and leaving Muth completely out, that “everyone top of The Preakness, the one that kept him out all Summer….and his so so return….doesn’t float my boat, but I usually lose betting against Bob…..I think Subsanador is the real deal..
That “fever on top of the Preakness”, (meant to say)..
It’s a pretty formidable tag team you’re up against trying to beat Baffert but all you want is a strong display by Senor Buscador to set him up for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Beautifully written piece, Steve, but of the two horses, I think I prefer Zandon. In my opinion, Sierra Leone has more talent, but he’s never shown the heart or doggedness of Zandon. If he had, he would have won the Derby and Belmont.
Which is my way of saying I’m looking for a wide-open Classic. I’m also eagerly awaiting the presence of Japanese runner Forever Young. HE’s a horse that shows his heart.
Thanks again for posting so faithfully here for us, your readers. I know it’s too early to really have much to say about the rising crop of 3YO colts, but do you have some favorites among recent debut (or even stakes) efforts?
My latest find is the Danny Gargan-owned and -trained Rookie Card, who has twice finished second in his only two starts (once to Tip Top Thomas at Saratoga and once to the Brad Cox-trained Comes a Time on Saturday at Aqueduct). Both times, he’s posted Beyers of 80+, so he’s not slow.
My favorite prformance was Showcase in the Saratoga Speecial. He ovecame a lot of adversity and ran like an older horse. Just a flawless performance. He is on the shelf right now with a minor issue and wont be back before Gulfstream. The most recent maiden winner who really impressed me was East Avenue. A beautiful mover and very professional, he checked off all the boxes. Definitely one to watch.
Steve Ferocious looked any kind, in his debut…..What he did in his next start….Well, like I said he looked any kind, twice!
Yes, when Ferocious saw the other colt pass him he went after him and passed him. Determination is what I like to see most in young colts.
Tap Into This, I also like, he had a troubled trip and the pedigree can’t be bettered.
I agree about Ferocious but I said tth most recent maiden winner that caught my eye
Oooo, an early tip from the master Derby horse spotter! I have Showcase on my list, but will take another look at the video. I haven’t seen East Avenue’s race; I’ll look for it. Thank you, Steve!
Just watched the video. Will be interesting to see how he handles coming from behind.
I’m sure you were referring to the rising crop of 2yr. old colts, (not 3yr. old colts).
The retirement of Charge It to Gainesway is another horse that never for filled his full potential due to ‘whatever’ reason. I often wonder what might have been if another trainer – Bill Mott, Steve Asmussen, Brad Cox, Richard Mandella, John Sadler et al – had trained the horse.
Nonetheless, Charge It is a magnificent looking horse and that pedigree will seal a future for four years at least from there it’s up to him.
He really looked magnificent in his spectacular win in the Dwyer by 23 lengths. He seemed destined to stardom; but unfortunately he grabed a quarter in that easy win. I believe that he never really recovered from the subsequent complications of that injury.
Charge It will be sought after as he got the same cross as the inimmitable Fligthline at more affordable fee…
What would have been different from Pletcher handling in your view?
Nelson, as you no doubt remember, when Charge It came back as a four year old in many races was bumped around or squeezed between horses on quite a few occasions. This was after a surprising second in the Gulfstream Park Mile, Charge It was expected to dominate the race . These ‘skirmishes’ appeared to take away his confidence.
Instead of giving Charge It a confidence boost in lesser races he was entered in this order: Oaklawn H., Metropolitan H., Suburban H. (which he won), then came the Whitney H., Woodward S., Breeders’Cup Dirt where he ran 4th in each race.
From there Charge It was never the same, as a 5 year old he was a mere shadow of his previous self. The confidence/spirit had been knocked out of him.
Whether it was Pletcher’s or Whisper Hill’s decision to maintain Charge It in these top races seemed a mistake. Let’s take Bill Mott’s as an exemplar of a wiser choice of race with Batten Down.
Batten Down wins the Ohio Derby with ease, Mott gives Batten Down a chance with the big boys in the Jim Dandy and he performs well. Mott tries another step higher in the Travers Stakes but Batten Down regresses. Instead of competing at the top leave in his next race Batten Down is given a confidence booster in running and winning the Bourbon Trail Stakes and consideration for another attempt at a Grade 1 later in the year.
Charge its race record as a stallion prospect would sound more bullish with some easier races thrown in. A win, is a win, is a win. That’s my perspective, you may have a different opinion but that’s racing. Mott always appears to be thinking more laterally with his charges than some, for many he is greatly admired.
Fair points. I can not argue against the importance of building confidence in a runner.
I thought you were going to mention Pletcher pushing Charge It to soon to the Derby (i.e. with only 3 starts). Moreover, you may remember how green Charge It was in the Florida Derby.
I first thought the Derby must have taken a toll on his form (and even on his confidence). However, again, the Dwyer romp (two months later) made me change that idea. I remember reading that he never fully recovered from that injury
If Charge it were my horse I would have skipped the Derby and go from the Florida Derby to the Peter Pan to gauge Belmont Stakes prospect. After all, being a son of Tapit, Charge It had a sort of license to excel in the test of Champions…
Anyway, if horses could speak we would know what happened to Charge It physically and/or mentally while his people ran him until his 5-year-old age trying to get a Grade 1 for their homebred…
Nelson, you make an excellent point. I had forgotten about the Florida Derby to Kentucky Derby debacle. Over the decades you see it so often with the Pletcher colts prepping for the Kentucky Derby. Lightly raced, oozing talent, enough points and seldom heard of again i.e. off to stud.
Yes, the Florida Derby to Peter Pan route to the Belmont Stakes appears sage advice in hindsight. There is so much luck involved in winning the Kentucky Derby I tend to believe the racing gods are actually manipulating the wins. Fairy tales seem to come true, at least Steve helps to embellish the story with his writing aptitude.
As you said, patience as practiced by the trainers you mentioned really pays off…. and there are many examples of that.
Also, the route taken by Seize The Grey going from the mile of the Pat Day to the Preakness could have worked better for Charge It.
Yes Davids…. Steve with his craft is promoting not only the sport but also inspiring the participation and the sharing of fond memories among many fans.
The energy and joy that many find in reading and writing in Steve’s blog has a positive impact for individuals and for the sport as well.
Nelson, exactly. Where else can you recall cherished past memories with people you may never have met but share that same special moment in their lives.
Charge It’s race record was 16 starts, 4 wins, 3 places, 1 show with total earnings of 887,270.
Other than his dismal finish (17th) in the Kentucky Derby) and (10th) in the Whitney, he had a reasonably sucessful racing career with some good speed figures and he raced against multiple well known horses including Cody’s Wish, Messier, White Abarrio, National Treasure to mention.
He was plaqued with injuries at least twice. A soft pallet injury during in Kentucky Derby resulted in surgery.
A quarter crack resulted in being sent to Mandy’s farm and a long layoff from July 2022 to February 2023.
There was another layoff between October 2023 and March 2024. From March to July 27 he had regular works but none since.
Charge It’s 106 in the Suburban tied the highest speed figure that year at a mile and a quarter.
In my opinion the strength of Charge It’s pedigree is the broodmare line.
He is out of I’ll Take Charge by Indian Charlie out of Take Charge Lady.
Take Charge Lady won 2.480 million dollars, 22 starts, 11 wins 7 places.
She was also a Blue Hen producer. She produced ten foals that include Take Charge Indy, Will Take Charge and As Time Goes By (her last foal). Her daughter Charming produced Take Charge Brandi and Omaha Beach.
IMHO, a different trainer would not have made a difference in Charge It’s career.
He was just another one of those horses plaqued by injuries and set backs. In spite of these set backs he managed 16 starts, a rarity these days.
I do not know if he retired sound. That information has not been disclosed.
Good Magic, Zandon and Sierra Leone have been the best Derby performers for Chad Brown. As Steve, poitned out, the four-time Champion trainer used the same path to the Derby for Zandon and Sierra Leone after very promising debuts. Brown skipped the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes for Zandon.
After the Travers, Zandon ran in the Pennsylvania Derby and the Cigar Mile to end his 3-year-old campaign. Sierra Leone is going to the BC Classic right after the Midsummer Derby.
Steve might be on something with Sierra Leone in November. I would say that he is on a roll following divining the resurgence of Fiercenss in the Travers after a clever analysis of the Jim Dandy. I is really easy to picture Sierra Leone showing his powerful final kick at Del Mar.
I would love to see a rematch between Sierra Leone and his Japanese cousin Forever Young in the homestretch at Del Mar. It is a short stretch indeed with the superfast Gun Runner and Knicks Go winning the only two editions at Del Mar. However, in those 2017 and 2021 races there were no closer with the quality and power of Sierra Leone and Forever Young. At the end, it just take a lucky clean trip and a contentious pace for a deep closer to have his day… also, they both have trainers with proven success in big races.
There is also another international rivalry by Ushba Tesoro and Senor Buscador that can be restaged in the BC Classic.
BTW, Ushba Tesoro and Derma Sotogake will face off tomorrow at Funabahsi Racecourse in Tokyo. It is the Hai Stakes at 1 mile and 209 yards which was the prep Ushba Tesoro won last year before his 5th in the BCC.
This BC Classic is bound to have one of the most important international flavors of its history. It seems like Aidan O’Brien and the Japanese got their best chances ever to grab their first BBC Trophy…
I think he’s better than Zandon, but is a plodder maybe. I wouldn’t mind if he won the BCC, snatching it from Fierceness at the line and passing Forever Young and Ushba Tesoro on the way. Will he be back next year?
I don’t know yet if I’m going, Saturday card at Santa Anita is tremendous, I like four horses , and would love an up close with Johannes, who is a terrific talent….Santa Anita is plagued by a small horse inventory, they only get good cards three, maybe four times in a year, as opposed to Aqueduct which puts out a superb product—This Saturday at The Great Race Place, the most beautiful sports venue I have ever been to—gets my tired heart thumping like a Buddy Rich drum solo!….
Yes, Matthew, California is probably the richest state in the world yet seems incapable of sustaining an aesthetic gem in Santa Anita while also having an abundance of extremely talented runners. However, the fields are deplorable. I fear Santa Anita is heading the way of Hialeah. Just sad.
Davids, California is deeply in debt. Projected debt burden for 2024 thru 2025 is 54 billion dollars.
Population and businesses are leaving the state in big numbers.
Regulation, high taxes are part of the problem.
The State now has some sort of exit tax that if you leave.
Eventually Santa Anita will be sold for development.
I honestly do not think the state has any interest in promoting horse racing.
Yes, Lynda, all is true but California still remains the world’s 5th largest economy for the past seven years according to the Californian government.
Knocking down Santa Anita would be a tragedy.
Tech industries are the big part of the world economy…the individual business man/woman have been leaving in droves….
Yes, Matthew, I once wanted to buy one of those unique houses near Alamo Square in San Francisco but they went from expensive to ridiculous thanks to the Tech Barons and now they are fleeing the city which they ruined.
Speaking of the Tech Industry, I was listening to a program this morning where a tech expert was advising how all the customer service people on phones could be replaced by AI in the near future and the AI customer service person can work non stop.
This would allow, his words, 1 million workers in the Phillipines and 3 million in India the chance to find better employment by assisting with improving the AI customer service ‘person’ by monitoring the calls.
If you believe that you would believe anything. AI is there to replace millions of jobs from doctors, lawyers, accountants, customer service people to those in dispatch around the world. The trouble is with no employment who is going to buy goods, the Tech barons?
The fact that we are getting so close to a dystopia discussion on Steve’s Secretariat blog really goes to show just how worried we, the people, are.
David’s the AI “voices” mispronounce words! I cannot stand them!…You’re talking about “The Painted Ladies”, of Alamo Square! I lived at 17th/Taraval…and 29th/Ortega…my grandparent’s houses, built by Dolger )So many Dolger homes, cost $3500 in the 1930s…..worth a million ……
Davids this is already happening and has been for about 5 years.
When we try to reach customer service for any of the major carriers including AT&T invariably we are speaking to someone or an automated system originating in other parts of the world
Matthew, I’m jealous. Ha ha Housing is a major problem everywhere except Vienna. In Vienna 90% of the housing is rented and the government prevents massive rent rises.
The future for young people appears dismal. AI is going to swallow up so many professional positions that they will inevitably become slaves to machines.
Lynda & Matthew, these new AI customer service voices are not robotic they sound like any human voice – the voice they used as an example was a middle-aged Californian female voice who was concerned on helping the customer. ‘She’ could wiz through and sort out the problem within seconds.
Moreover, ‘she’ can work no stop from someone’s living room – she never tires, doesn’t need toilet or lunch/ coffee breaks, never argues or want a raise, soothing the agitation of the caller 24/7. Goodbye human.
I use ChatGPT at work and the hours it saves me with excel, graphs, etc is incredible and it can write excellent summaries, essays in seconds. Of course, you have to have the prior knowledge on what you want it to perform but it’s wonderful for me.
Like Matthew, I hate AI with a passion. A few days ago I had a problem with my Internet provider. They wouldn’t accept my password, I couldn’t change it, and I couldn’t get to my emails. I called the company and got a nonhuman. She wanted to text me and I kept telling her she couldn’t because I don’t have texting. I asked over and over to speak to a person and the nonhuman hung up on me three times. It was ridiculous and unbelievably infuriating. But some human must have done something because after the third hangup, I found I could access the emails. But I dread the time when I might have to call them again.
Jiffy, it confounds me how the tech providers get away with treating people like ‘idiots.’
My pet hate with the ‘modern world of Business’ structure is that no one takes responsibility when the customer has to waste hours trying to correct a mistake the ‘provider’ has made.
When I was a young lad, my first manager told me I would be dealing with people whose fragile egos can be so easily bruised that it will be my fault if the sun doesn’t shine.
On that basis, I’ve learned to treat everyone as if they were the Queen of England and admonish myself should things screw-up for any reason.
However, when dealing with mechanical functionaries that don’t ‘function’ the temper boils over in frustration. You have my sympathy.
Davids, I have no use for AI.
Facebook (META) has gone all in for it.
It’s everywhere even in the search tab, in comments and depending on the FB page it summarizes the comments.
Dare I call AI “Writing for Dummies?
Lynda, I’m not on Facebook and try to avoid Google. AI is very useful working in the University setting.
We use AI to catch out those cheating in assignments using AI, we are only on a mere cusp of the AI revolution. The future for many looks exceedingly bleak which is extremely distressing.
I remember in the 70s we were being told how computers were the future and that the biggest problem was finding leisure activities to fill our days. What a deception that turned out to be.
Davids, it is my opinion that AI stifles creativity in art, music and writing (poetry, short stories, novels etc.).
The main reason I am on FB is to stay in touch with my family in Virginia and my friends who live in other parts of the world.
There are many pages and groups I enjoy. Have only limited number of friends and that is intentional (we must have something in common)
Facebook works best when situations such as Hurricane Helene that is bearing down on us after midnight. Our county Emergency Services will be comminicating road closings, power outages.
Everyone LOVED smart phones at first… they have changed societal fabric….AI is going to be loved, AT FIRST, also….(worried crickets!)….
Davids taking into consideration the surging cost of living increases, California is actually 11th on the list of world economies.
The state has problems, one being an estimate of 54 billion debt for 2024-2025.
California is one of several states where property insurance carriers are pulling out of the state.
The mega metropolis areas are draining the Colorado River dry and the state does not plan on building anymore reservoirs. Ocean water desalination plants though budgeted never came to fruition.
Multiple corporations, the latest being Tesla, have left the state in search of more business friendly and less regulated states like Texas.
The power grid in California has on going rolling black outs.
Then there is the homeless situation.
Saving Thoroughbred horse racing is just not on the state’s list of priorities.
Lynda, after watching the brilliant film “Chinatown” as a teenager you came to an immediate conclusion that California is fraught with problems. Nonetheless, it always manages to beat the odds. Hopefully, they do so in the future but climate change appears insurmountable unless the ‘whole’ world changes.
I have no idea what you are talking about.
Lynda, the whole storyline of “Chinatown” is based around a group of crooks in highly influential positions diverting water from the city to irrigate orange groves. The famous California water wars and its consequences.
Los Angeles, California agriculture is built on an impossible dream – eventually ‘they’ will suck all the water, above and below ground so that the desert will implode upon all the surroundings.
Watch the film again and relate it to the present time.
Davids, I have never watched Chinatown on its entirety.
I know about the film of course.
An actor on a now canceled TV series was a professor at NYU and had podcasts from his lectures
Chinatown was one of the movies he discussed in his podcast.
Speaking of movies, I have been watching “The Boys In The Boat”. It is based on a true story about a group of college men who started out as the JV team and went on to win the gold medal in the Olympics during the Great Depression.
I think it was the 1936 Olympics that were held in Germany when Hitler was in power.
Like horse racing, that was totally different era in America.
Lynda, to truly appreciate “Chinatown” you should see it at a cinema. The storyline is quite complex and the producer speculated that “Chinatown”, around 2004, wouldn’t be made theses days as the script is too complex for movie goes in the new millennium.
I think you would thoroughly enjoy “Chinatown” it’s the film’s 50th year since production.
If Santa Anita fails the sport will be rocked…
There was an article in the LA Times in March when the Stronach Group threatened to close Santa Anita.
The property is worth billions, way more than the revenue generated by short cards and abbreviated racing days.
Over the past 5 years the track has lost over 30 million dollars.
No business can continue to sustain those kind of losses and stay in business.
With no political backing—if Santa Anita cannot partner up with an eastern track for subsidy bailout—it will fail, California is 100%behind Indian casinos, it has turned its back on the Thoroughbred industry, Steve’s hat may one day be a collector’s item…The politicians haven’t a clue what they have done, when the “Governator” Arnold came to Del Mar to hand out a trophy for the Pacific Classic—the place erupted an a loud chorus of boos, he looked bewildered, he had no clue what is happening….
Matthew W I do not know about California politics to comment Schwarzenegger.
What I know about Newsom is mostly coming from some friends in the state and of course the news coverage.
The current regime of politicians in the state have made it very difficult for companies to do business there. Chevron pulled their corporate headquarters as did HP and META (Zuckerberg).
I did read there are over a hundred recognized Native American tribes in the state and they do as you state own casinos of which 15 have horse racing.
When I mention politics I mean in conjunction with Horse Racing….Those historic Horse Race slots have greatly increased purses wherever they ate employed, Cali does not have the political willpower to help Horse Racing, because the Indian casinos oppose that, an industry is teetering!..
Matthew, that’s where “Luck” was heading as part of the storyline the Indian Casinos and their impact on racing.
The Indian Casinos can’t divest into the racetracks can they?
Is the California Government, 22 DAA determined to keep Del Mar racing afloat?
Hi Steve
Your analogy of Zandon and Sierra Leone is spot on.
Despite Del Mar’s relatively short stretch distance, I like Sierra Leone’s chances in the BC Classic. He’s a proven fighter who gives it his all in every career start. I would think Fierceness will be the post time favorite, but the question is, will he bounce coming off his Travers win? I’ll go with Sierra Leone in the BC Classic.
On a side note. The G2, Pilgrim Stakes, at Belmont is coming up on Saturday, 9-28.
Zulu Kingdom appears to stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field, IMO.
His win in the G3, With Anticipation Stakes was very impressive, going 1 1/16 miles in a sharp 1:41.79. This Irish bred colt, by Ten Sovereigns, out of a Smart Strike mare is in the capable hands of trainer, Chad Brown and Flavien Prat appears to be excellent fit in the irons. More than likely, a win in the Pilgrim will propel Zulu Kingdom as a top contender in the BC Juvenile Turf. Obviously, he’ll be going against the Euro invaders shipping in, but I like his chances to at least hit the board and round out the trifecta and superfecta.
Thank you for another great article on the sport of horse racing.
Bill Prat rides Santa Anita this Saturday..
You’re right Matthew, my bad.
Joel Rosario will be aboard Zulu Kingdom in the Pilgrim Stakes.
Steve your description of Zandon was perfect. Just one stunning horse
He was one of my picks for the Kentucky Derby.
Great pedigree. Looking forward to his foals next year.
Sierra Leone still has a chance to get it together but I am not sure the field in the BCC will make it possible if all that talent shows up.
City of Troy imho is more like his dam than Justify. I guess if anyone can make it happen Aiden can.
At the moment I am cheering for Anna to be HOY.
Stay safe everyone if your are in Helene’s path. Latest model has her coming right over Atlanta. It could change of course, but if it comes east of Atlanta it will be pretty rough for us and the upstate of South Carolina.
Lynda, I’m with you on Anna for HOTY. And I just glanced at the hurricane track map on the news — looks like it’s going to head over northern Georgia after it does what it does to the Gulf coast of Florida. When I lived in that area as a child, we actually WISHED for a hurricane to hit us. Having experienced one in North Carolina years later, I know better now.
Ms B the latest tracking as of noon today has the storm tracking to the west.
For NE Georgia and the upstate of South Carolina that puts us on the wrong side of the storm which will increase the risk of tornadoes.
We are predicted to get 8 to 10 inches of rain, winds up to 60MPH.
Currently under Tropical Storm and Flash Flood watches through late morning on Friday.
Heaviest rains and storms are expected in the early morning hours and possible rain wrapped tornadoes.
Governor Kemp has declared a State of Emergency and or local Emergency Services is warning to be prepared for extensive power outages and to make sure we can receive weather alerts at night.
It has been awhile since a storm of this intensity has impacted the region where I live.
The track I saw on the news tonight shows it going as far west as Nashville after it comes ashore near Apalachicola. I’ve NEVER seen a hurricane go that far west after landfall. Asheville yes, but Tennessee?! Hope the worst misses you.
Another vote for Thorpedo Anna. She has been the most consistent 3 year old this season – if you don’t count Sierra Leone, who is always right there, just has not worn flowers in a while.
I liked both Zandon and Epicenter, although Epi was my favorite. I couldn’t get interested in supporting Rich Strike.
Latest storm track thinks Helene will turn more to the West after landfall. You know it’s bad when people in Florida are getting nervous. I’m in central SC, and we have a history with the “H” storm here – celebrated our Hugo-versary last week. We need the rain badly, but I DO NOT relish being on the tornado-forming side of these hurricanes. I’ll be literally doing a “Batten Down” the next few days, and blessing our trees (yes, I am crazy, but I have faith in it).
Here’s hoping that Saturday does not involve chainsaw work. I hope we will be happily listening to a Braves doubleheader (they’re folding, we just have to see if it’s before or after the wildcards are set) and checking in on Senor Buscador while doing normal outdoor pursuits.
By the way, if Buscador can get back to early season form, I think he can outclose Sierra.
Stay safe Katy.
I too do not relish being on the tornado side.
I had some trees cut back this past summer that were close to the house.
Big worry is my ancient pecan trees, mimosas around my horse barn and a very, very old river oak that needs to come down, but it is on the county right of way and they refuse to cut it down until it shows signs of dying.
HA, the tree is covered in mistletoe and has limbs that are forever rotting and falling in the road or my yard.
I think Sierra Leone is a terrific horse, he hasn’t run a poor race, there hasn’t exactly been a lot of early pace, in the division this year, and a deep closer needs pace, to win….but he always comes with his rin, I thought Zandon ended up a hanger….I have not yet bet on Sierra….I intend to!
Speaking of pace….why they came up with The Dirt Mile boggles my mind, the Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Spring—getemouttadare!!!
(Sprint)
I have no statistics to back this up, but Chad Brown’s horses seem to plateau. They seem to hang around for awhile, but the breakout race never comes. I’m not doubting his abilities as a trainer or caretaker, but I wouldn’t expect improvement from SL.
Todd, Chad Brown appears to be able to ‘prepare’ turf champions who have a sustained career but with dirt racing in the US everything is basically pointed to the Kentucky Derby which is way too early for some lines resulting in an overall unfulfilled talent. With turf horses the pressure to succeed early is not of the same prominence.
Steve, interesting comparison and I fear unless Chad Brown sends out a rabbit/pacemaker for Sierra Leone he’ll end up running second or third all the time. They tried different distances with Zandon to no avail.
I thought the shorter distances would help Zandon as well but no luck. Sierra Leone is even more dependent on pace than Zandon. As much as I loathe the addition of rabbits, if you want to win in the US on dirt tracks you have to try every trick in the book.
As for City of Troy, the kickback is the major fear for me. The trial at Southwell was not what City of Troy will face in the Breeders Cup Classic by any means but if they can keep City of Troy ‘clean’ throughout the race he wins.
Fingers crossed for Shin Emperor in the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe, a first win for Japan could be on the offing here.
Thanks Steve. I’ve just spent an exhausting week in a major conference so it’s such a pleasure to be reading more that warms the heart.
David’s I am bullish on Happy Is a Choice, in The Sprint, am rooting for The Chosen Vron….I think the FAVOTITE this year comes from Japan!..
David’s I am bullish on Happy Is a Choice, in The Sprint, am rooting for The Chosen Vron….I think the FAVOTITE this year comes from Japan!..
Happy Is A Choice is trained by John Ortiz, a real “up and comer”….has a huge kick! So does the Japan horse (forgot his name)….
Matthew, I’m with you re: John Ortiz as a trainer he has impressed markedly.
Do you mean, Forever Young, as the Japanese horse with the big kick?
Oh no…David’s I’m talking about The SPRINT!..There is a Japanese sprinter, a one word name….I think he’s going to be the favorite…
Ah!! The Japanese Sprinters Stakes, 6f turf, is being run September 29 at Nakayama. Were you thinking of Mugen?
I’m talking about The horse that won the Korean race….got an all expenses trip to the Breeders Cup and is going, I think I read, looked good….I’ll look him up…(can’t recall his name)
Matthew, I think you are speaking of Remake, the son of Lani, but there is also Crown Pride.
Matthew, the Bob Baffert, Tiz the Law filly, Silent Law impressed last Saturday. Let’s hope she continues on. I still search for the return of Maymun…
Good luck with The Chosen Vron. I agree he’ll take a ton of beating at Del Mar.
Hand ridden she went :12 flat last quarter..
Yes Davids…REMAKE! Looked good the other day, in Korea….first race in four months, has run in big races, 9 for 18 this year the Sprint looks real good!..