Kentucky Derby 150 Analysis
Because of the early draw we have to get our analysis and wager suggestions out now, which is further complicated by an unpleasant weather forecast. So just to let everyone know, any changes, updates, and late revelations will be added to the story through Friday and will also be posted in the comments accordingly. ~ Steve Haskin
Kentucky Derby 150 Handicapping Analysis
By Steve Haskin
Before we start, we have to acknowledge the ominous weather forecast for Friday and Saturday, which could very well make most analyses and prognostications moot. We’ll try to throw in the sloppy track factor where they seem to fit best. So that will make this year’s Derby with its many perplexities even more perplex or make this simply about who loves an off track.
When selecting or betting on a horse like Fierceness at his short odds, or even just rooting for him, you run the risk of feeling foolish if he continues his pattern of one great race and one dull race and with his past performances indicating he is due for a dull race. We witnessed the hare take the Holy Bull Stakes for granted and get caught napping by the tortoise. But we have also seen how totally the hare is when he takes the race seriously.
One TV analyst called him unreliable, another questioned his heart, and most of them feel he is unable to handle adversity. But in my mind I would rather feel foolish ignoring the obvious trend and what analysts say about him than ignore his three spectacular performances in which he won by a
As much as I hate picking favorites, in the end this Derby i believe goes through Fierceness with Sierra Leone right there. I just think they stand out. And I am looking for big improvement from Just a Touch, whose Thoro-Graph numbers suggest a break-out race. And right with him is Forever Young, who could do anything, including win, without it being a surprise. But ponder this…take the last two Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. In their six combined Triple Crown victories neither of them ran a faster Beyer figure than Fierceness did…as a 2 year old. And his Florida Derby win was 5 points faster than any of their Triple Crown wins. If Fierceness runs his race he just is so much faster than these horses and it wouldn’t surprise me if he won by open lengths. And if Sierra Leone has a good trip no reason he shouldnt run his race. But its the Derby and running your race is not often easy.
After those two and Just a Touch and Forever Young, for price horses who can possibly win and worth a win bet, no one likes Mystik Dan but I know what he is capable of, and Honor Marie is coming into the race as good as you could want and he is ready to peak. As I have mentioned Domestic Product’s maiden win still lingers and draws me to him. If you’re looking to go deeper into the exotics you can add Stronghold and Resilience.
Bombs away possibles are Epic Ride (Very live at 63-1 even with the outside post), Society Man (can back end the exotics at 73-1) and if the track is off Endlessly, who is a very talened horse. We just dont know about the dirt.
verage margin of 10 lengths, his through-the-roof speed ratings, his stamina-oriented pedigree, and the way he overwhelms his stakes-winning workmates in the morning. In short I might feel foolish for a few minutes betting on the hare on one of his down days, but I would feel a lot more foolish and for much longer betting against him and having to watch him leave the tortoise 10 miles behind and wonder what the heck I was thinking.
I have gone back and watched all of Fierceness’s works on XBTV, and even though Todd Pletcher felt he had him fit enough to win a weak Holy Bull Stakes, the Fierceness who worked in company with Born Noble in January and with Agate Road in February was not even close to the Fierceness who decimated Agate Road in his last two works with push-button acceleration and breathtaking gallop-outs. So it is very possible that the Holy Bull was taken too lightly and Fierceness simply was a short horse who happened to have a troubled start and then wound up getting lulled to sleep by incredibly slow fractions. As I always say, the best way to beat a fast horse is to make him run slow and take away his main weapon. And he did come back to beat Hades by 20 lengths in the Florida Derby when given his head early on ad allowed to run the equivalent of 15 lengths faster than he did in the Holy Bull, resulting in a super 113 Brisnet late pace figure.
So if he gets a clean trip, as all previous Derby winners have done, I see no reason to doubt we will see the same horse we did in the Florida Derby. And if all the cynics and doubters are correct about him having a flaw in his character, so be it. You’ll get a better price next time. And regarding the slop factor, he is one and one in his two starts on an off track and could very well like a sealed track he can skip over.
And then we come to Sierra Leone. Having exhausted so many words on him and the others since January, I have to keep resorting to metaphors. And in keeping with the Passover season we can use the introductory question prior to the traditional Four Questions: “Why is this horse different from all other horses?” It is still too early to provide a concrete answer, but from everything we have seen so far, he most surely is different from all other horses in that he is a $2.3 million bulldozer, which is slang for someone who is “powerful and intimidating.” He runs like no other horse and he does not simply pass horses, he inhales them. But you never know if he is going to run by you or into you, as it often looks like his alignment is off, and we have already seen his tendency to pull to the left.
He has shown that he handles all kinds of surfaces and just pounds his way through it whether it is fast, a sealed muddy track, or a swamp. And he has the best Thoro-Graph pattern that indicates a career-high number is coming up that is fast enough to win. He will have to work out a trip from post 2, taking far back and then be able to swing to the outside. Or Gaffalione can gamble and try to get the Mine That Bird rail trip in the slop. You just want to see him with clear path. You don’t want to have to stop a bulldozer and then quickly get it going again.
So does this year’s Derby come down to the irresistible force meeting the immovable object or will their foibles open the door to the number of other talented horses whose jockeys are faced with the quandary of not knowing whether to worry about the immovable object dashing off in front of them or the irresistible force charging from behind them.
As many of you may know from reading my past big-race analyses I don’t waste people’s times picking favorites. And we have two of them with whom we will have questions until we see how the race is developing. Will Fierceness break cleanly and be able to get a good position from post 17 and how will he deal with any opponents who dare to challenge him or try to outrun him? Will Sierra Leone be able to drop right out of it from post 2 without getting squeezed or bumped and then get a quick enough pace to allow him to swing out wide to launch his big move? Chad Brown is well aware he has never had to show his ability to stop and go in traffic and be forced to make his big rally on the inside, and perhaps that is why he worked him inside Domestic Product.
From the opening few graphs it is plain to see I am leaning toward Fierceness as my main selection. As awestruck as I have been with Sierra Leone, and have been since describing his maiden victory in the Rankings back in January, I have to stick with the horse who gave me my big winner in the Breeders’ Cup as one of the great overlays we’ve seen in a while.
Now let’s get down to serious business, which is to find horses who can beat the two favorites or who can provide value betting underneath them in the exotics.
The obvious horses who are lurking just below the two favorites and have the best chances of upsetting them, but not providing great value, are Catching Freedom, Just a Touch, and Forever Young. Catching Freedom has run well in his only race on a sloppy track and Just a Touch has a win and a second in the slop, but his jockey Florent Geroux said he had trouble grabbing hold of it on the far turn in the Gotham. But the slop he likely will see at Churchill will not resemble the slop he ran on at Aqueduct.
So here is a look at the (for now) four longshots who I feel not only have a decent chance of being in the top three or four, but a realistic chance to win. I am talking about horses over 15-1 on the morning line. Details about why I like these horses can also be found in my Derby Rankings over the past three months, as two of these horses have been ranked in the Top 5 at some point.
1–Mystik Dan – Boy would the slop destroy this horse’s odds, which would make his selection obvious and more boring than it would have been on a dry track. I have made a case for this horse on a number of occasions, so let’s just take a slightly different approach and keep assuming the track will be fast, because if it isn’t he likely will be the big bet-down horse. Most of the experts don’t like him because his big win in the Southwest Stakes was in the slop and with a perfect ground-saving trip. Let’s say he was helped by the slop and the trip. I can understand using that against him…if he won by a couple of lengths and got a good speed rating. After all, he was 11-1 and had won only a 5 ½-furlong maiden race. But with legitimate excuses for his two defeats he wins the Southwest by eight lengths and gets the fastest Thoro-Graph and Beyer figures of the year. That was all due to the slop, an inside bias, and a ground-saving trip? Thoro-Graph takes ground loss into consideration and still gave him a sensational near-zero figure. The way he was striding out in the final furlong was a thing of beauty to watch. Again, that was because of the slop?
Then, coming back two months later in the Arkansas Derby, he got wiped out on the first turn, dropped back to eighth, made a good run on the turn, but got a bit tired in the stretch, having to alter course twice, and still finished a credible third, which to me looked like a good prep to put him in position to return to that big number from the Southwest, which is still the second fastest number run this year. If you question a son of Goldencents getting the mile and a quarter I can understand it, but his female family is loaded with stamina, so we can call that a wash. He worked five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5 at Churchill Downs, fastest of 71 works at the distance. At 20-1 or higher he is just too enticing to pass up. Unfortunately I think that 20-1 goes down the drain on a sloppy track.
2–Honor Marie – My only concern is him becoming the wise guy horse, or buzz horse, or whatever term you want to use for a horse everyone seems to be falling in love with and is jumping on his bandwagon, which is starting to get crowded. I’m just afraid he is going to go off at odds shorter than he should, although that might not happen if the track is sloppy, as he didn’t seem to be handling it too well until late in the Risen Star Stakes. But even if it does come up sloppy, the track will be a lot better and easier to grab hold of than that Fair Grounds mess was. Watching him in the morning I doubt there is a horse who is flourishing mentally and physically more than he is. He just looks like a happy horse who is relishing his training and is just floating over the track. If you want to see what a horse looks like who is ready to peak on Derby Day it is him. He is on an excellent form cycle, third race back and moved way forward in his second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby going 1 3/16 miles, which has proven to be a successful distance in which to prep for the Kentucky Derby, giving horses enough of a bottom to come back in six weeks. What I like about him as a deep closer not only is that he ran a 101 Brisnet late pace figure in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs, over which he already has two wins and a second, but in the Louisiana Derby he ran a 96 late pace figure after running a 96 middle pace figure, so he is far from a plodding stretch runner, being able to maintain high speed over a longer distance. And remember, he did win his career debut at Churchill Downs going six furlongs when he was not expected to, coming home his last eighth in :11 4/5.
Some may question using an inexperienced jockey like Ben Curtis, but he has had a great deal of experience mainly in England and has ridden in his share of big races overseas. Whit Beckman has been to the Derby with the victorious Super Saver when he was an assistant to Todd Pletcher and was with Preakness winner Cloud Computing when he was an assistant to Chad Brown. Both horse and trainer are giving off good vibes right now, which apparently are drawing a lot of people to them. I usually back away from wise guy, bandwagon horses, but I was drawn in a long time ago and I just hope his newly found popularity doesn’t carry over to the mutuel windows.
Those two are my main longshot win bets.
Domestic Product – Let’s start off by saying the worst race he has ever run came on a sloppy track in the Remsen, so that has to be considered if it comes up sloppy. Now, if you want a horse who most likely will go off at odds longer than he should, then you have to seriously consider Domestic Product, despite his having yet another of those Klaravich Stable unappealing financial names such as Consumer Spending, Regulatory Risk, and Marketsegmentation that the Derby gods usually frown upon. But his at least isn’t that bad. That aside, I am ignoring all the history he has going against him, like trying to be the first horse in 102 years to win the Derby off as much as an eight-week layoff. But I have gone over the circumstances surrounding his 3-year-old campaign many times and how his two races with sloth-like fractions have compromised his strengths and especially his speed figures.
The pace of the Tampa Bay Derby was so slow it enabled him to run an insanely fast 125 Brisnet late pace figure. If anyone can get him to win off a layoff it is Brown, and how many times have we seen him have multiple horse entries and win with the lesser regarded one? But in the end the main reason I am ignoring history is what I went into in great detail last week about the impact his maiden victory made on me. It is the image of that race that has me listing him as an exotics prospect and even a potential win prospect at a huge price. I also love the way he’s been looking and training, and watching him gallop there is no noise when his feet hit the ground. He certainly held his own working in company with Sierra Leone and was not being asked at all by Tyler Gaffalione. Again, if it comes up sloppy you’re on your own.
Just a Touch — I am afraid he is going to be too short to bet minimally to win, so I will have to bet more or rely on the exacta. I believe is on the verge of stardom, and after earning a terrific “2 ½” Thoro-Graph number in his first three career starts, all at different distances and different tracks from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, he is now ready to break out with a huge number in the Derby, but with a change of tactics. He was given a monster TimeformUS pace figure in the Blue Grass Stakes, as well as an equally monstrous 112 Brisnet middle pace figure that followed a 103 early pace Figure. But that resulted in a mundane 83 late pace figure, and those numbers need to be reversed. An 83-112-103 can win the Derby. Now that he has been two turns for the first time, and with Brad Cox working him by himself, I feel he can change tactics and take back closer to the middle of the pack and save his best running for the end. I’m still not crazy about three lifetime starts and none as a 2-year-old even though Justify and Mage have done it. But they both had a pair of two-turn races under them. He has had only one. However, he is such a powerfully built colt with a big stride, yet was fast enough to work in :09 4/5 at the 2-year-old sale, so I believe his ceiling is sky-high. I just know I’m not going to like his odds, being only 10-1 on the morning line. I also know I wouldn’t leave him out of the exotics.
So putting all that together here are my long-range wagers that are subject to change over the next five days based on the weather and anything else that might arise. Remember to check the column and the comments on Friday and Saturday morning for any wagering updates.
Forever Young — The same applies to him regarding a win wager. With the scratch of Encino it opened my eyes to the fact that I have a 10-1 shot, Just a Touch, as a win bet. So, not loving another longshot, why not add Forever Young, a horse I have been making a case for all year. There are simply too many things to like about him and I relish the unprecedented and unconventional journey he took to get here. All you have to do is read is long list of strengths in last week’s column.
Win — Main win bets on Mystik Dan (Preferably on a fast track and bigger odds, but I’ll take what I can get if it’s sloppy) and Honor Marie (preferably on a fat tack and as long as he doesn’t get bet down too much). You can also play Domestic Product (also preferably on a fast track),, Just a Touch (preferably on a fast track), and Forever Young (if his odds aren’t too short)..
Revised Exacta box — For an all-out killing by eliminating the favorites I will box Mystik Dan, Honor Marie, Domestic Product, Forever Young, and Just a Touch in the exactas. A lack of betting money can breed stupidity, but the reason why I am not using Fierceness and Sierra Leone besides looking for a killing is that there are a number of reasons why each one can lose. If they both have perfect or close to perfect trips they should finish first and second in whatever order you wish. But there is a lot that can happen to prevent that. The main thing to watch is how many horses are intent on getting the lead and if Fierceness can outrun them without setting a blistering opening quarter. If he can’t he could easily wind up four or five wide into the first turn. Also I am wary of horses going into the Derby off an easy runaway victory, especially as big as 13 lengths. I don’t want a horse peaking the race before the Derby. And finally there is the question of whether Sierra Leone can find a clear path to the outside and not get stopped in traffic.
Trifectas — Now we’re getting a bit steep, but if you love Fierceness and Sierra Leone you can bet trifecta boxes with Fierceness and all five of the above mentioned horses (Mystik Dan, Honor Marie, Forever Young, Domestic Product, and Just a Touch). and a trifecta box with Sierra Leone and the same five orses. What you do with Catching Freedom is up to you in case you like him more than the two favorites. Bit it’s still with the same five horses.
The one horse I hated to leave out was Resilience, who I have been a fan of since his maiden win and Risen Star fourth and on whom I placed my only Future Wager bet at 78-1. It reached a point where I had to leave some horses I like out, and I just did not like him breaking from post 19 with his style of running. He doesnt have the speed to outrun the faster horses inside him and he can’t be taken far back, so I’m just afraid he is going to get hung wide going into the turn. His Thoro-Graph numbers show he is improving and definitely will be a major player all year. For those who do bet him, you never know how a race is going to play out, so there is always hope. The post (18) is also my problem with Stronghold, and while his Thoro-Graph numbers are also improving he still has a ways to go to be a viable win candidate. But if you like him for the exotics, he, like Resilience, is playable if they can overcome their post.
Tidbits:
If it comes up sloppy, muddy, or good I will definitely be betting on Endlessly at a huge price, with his low action and reach, the dramatic improvement in his last work, and the dominance he has shown on grass and synthetic. He is starting to look a lot more like a live horse than he did a week ago.
Don’t be shocked if Society Man, even breaking from post 19, picks up a piece of the superfecta at monster price. I think he is improving at the right time and has looked good in the mornings.
Although I have given a number of reasons in the Rankings to like Just Steel I am just afraid that jumping from a “9” Thoro-Graph number to a “1” in the Arkansas Derby suggests a “bounce” is coming up. But I would not dissuade anyone from putting him in the exotics, which I am sure I will eventually do. I just have not yet figured out where.
Watch for Catalytic in his first start or two after the Derby. He’s not quite there yet, but I love what I’m seeing, even just watching him get his bath. He seems so professional with a super personality. He had his training delayed two months due to a virus, but he has made great strides in a short period of time.
Without wishing misfortune on any of the current starters, I would love to see Epic Ride get a chance to run. He ran a sneaky good third in the Blue Grass Stakes and I believe could have been closer had he not gotten intimidated by Sierra Leone bearing in on him, forcing him to duck in about three paths and lose some of his momentum. He is another who should love an off track, as well as the mile and a quarter. (NOTE — Now that he is in I will have to figure out what to do with him).
And last but not least, to demonstrate Secretariat’s influence on the breed, of the 22 horses entered in the Kentucky Derby including the also-eligibles, Big Red’s name appears in 20 of them. And in many of them it appears multiple times.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Hi Steve, It’s been another incredibly entertaining prep season reading your articles! Thanks so much! I’ve got a question. Ian Wilkes and Brian Hernandez have both spoke about how Burnham Square was “quartered up” after the Blue Grass Stakes. What does “quartered up” mean?? Google only gave me quarter cracks, which I’m pretty sure isn’t what Ian and Brian are talking about.
Anybody here from Wyoming? I just read on Paulick Report that there are plans to build a new racetrack outside Cheyenne. I can’t remember the last time I heard about a racetrack being built rather than torn down.
Look up ThunderPlainsdot com.
You can watch a video of the plans.
Maybe they will include Indian Racing events.
Being on stall rest is no fun.
I have started cribbing donuts.
Eventually (sometimes rapidly), they all go away when I do that. Maybe you’ll feel up to some weaving in the next few days. PT prevented me from needing surgery on my medial meniscus. Best wishes for a rapid recovery!
That is what I am trying to avoid is surgery.
Katy, Ms B…almost spit my late afternoon coffee out reading your comments.
Weaving and being hobbled about sums it up.
Get them out of the house, Lynda! Especially when you are hobbled!
Tyler G called for an interview with CD stewards.
I just want to shout it from the roof tops…MOVE ON…
Let it be!!!
Mr D Wayne has just announced that Just Steel and Seize The Gray are running in the Preakness.
Wouldn’t expect anything less.
Let me guess, Mike, if it were up to you, HISA would have a lifetime ban in place on Lukas and the Triple Crown races would fall on the first Saturdays in May, July and September?
Well, here are my final thoughts about Derby #150 a couple of days later and trying to avoid the textbook knee jerk reactions that comes immediately after the race…
Congrats to Steve Haskins-you nailed it. And thanks for your herculean analysis week after week. A job well done. It is much appreciated.
Congrats to team McPeek for sweeping the Oaks and Derby-something that hasn’t been done in over seven decades.
I would give the Derby a B+ because Churchill Downs didn’t resemble the ‘house of horrors’ a year ago and the exciting finish of the Derby itself.
Big audience tuned in. It might have something to do with people tunning out the college campus protests for a day and enjoying a piece of Americana, or perhaps people might have tuned in to witness the horse from Japan, or I would call it-the ‘Shohei Ohtani carryover interest effect’.
Speaking of the horse from Japan, Forever Young, I thought he was going to win at the top of the stretch but then, as it appeared to me, got caught up in a duel with Sierra Leone, only to realize at the finish line was fast approaching, that Mystic Dan was still in front and then both horses desperately lunging in the last few strides to come up short.
I could be wrong but I thought I heard the Cardinal Marching Band singing the second verse of My Old Kentucky Home ‘Tis summer, the people are gay instead of ‘the darkies are gay’.
I ready to move on from the pink and the seersucker suits. And yes, I get the significance of pink on Friday-I’ve lost two members of my family to cancer.
Finally, the big elephant in the room, uninvited and invisible, made his appearance after all of the ceremonies finished-Baffert and his two colts, Muth and Imagination, who by the way worked out at SA hours earlier on Saturday both with bullet works of 1:11.3. McPeek hasn’t decided yet and Brown is skipping the Preakness with Sierra Leone.
Much has been made of the contact between Sierra Leone and Forever Young but I just watched the NBC replay again and none of the contact I saw between those two compares to the hit Mystic Dan got from Track Phantom who slammed into him just as Hernandez and Mystic Dan were halfway through the hole that opened on the rail. It was the type of hit that would have cost many horses the race but he powered through it. But it had to have taken something out of him. Watch it and tell me your opinion. I’m amazed Mystic Dan didn’t go into the rail. He took a big hit. You can see the distance between Fierceness and Track Phantom gets wider as Track Phantom angles in towards the rail smacking Mystic Dan who was already positioned between TP and the rail. After the race is over, NBC shows the overhead shot which clearly indicates the space that opened up for MD to go through on the rail but halfway into the move TP veers sharply back in towards the rail hitting MD.
It wasn’t that bad of a hit, more of a sideways scrape. But video can be very hard to judge and even if you could see it in a still, a non jockey can’t really tell how hard a hit is or what it does to the horses involved.
I like Track Phantom and he did exactly what he always does and set a perfect Derby pace. He got tired and veered in before a mile was up. No one was up to just staying off of him and making a move to win it. There were no true pace pressing types besides Fierceness. Just Steel changed his style and pressed forward but faded to last. Dornoch never made it near the front. Stronghold did well, I think he was cut off by Resilience. It was a great tapestry of moving parts.
So you can say it was not so bad because YOU are a jockey? Please. What anyone can see was the hit was enough to stall his clean passage through the hole that was there. What we do know from Hernandez is the they did damage to the rail. What is easy to assume is that the incident cost him 1 length perhaps two. That alone makes the photo unnecessary. You can see anyway you want, I think most people who see it will say that it cost Mystik Dan time and length to get pinned to the rail in what was Not just a scrape a scrape. MD hits the rail, and TP’s hind end gets lifted up! I can do frame by frame. It happened.
You’re exaggerating the effect of the bump. TP got the worst of it even if he caused it.
It’s not that horses CAN’T run in the two week spacing, they can and DO—it does wipe them out, but the Triple Crown is a five week thing—I don’t believe today’s horses aren’t up to that, we had two Triple Crown winners in past ten years, and that’s with a 20 horse Derby, leave it alone!…
And the Derby takes a LOT out of most horses – many of whom get banged around and emerge with cut and bruises, if not worse. The Preakness will always suffer if these horses need some time to recuperate …
Honor Marie fortunately emerged unscathed, and in good shape, but – using him as an example- I’m sure he could use the little break.
I meant to add – I’m tired of the “Change the TC” every year …there’s not supposed to be a TC winner most years. It’s a deliberately grueling test ….
Steve, you gave us a ride as great as Brian Hernandez gave Mystik Dan! Thanks for all you do.
Speaking of rides, the Derby is a jockey’s race like no other. Stronghold was not going to hold up for that final furlong no matter what, but Fresu had that rail position all to himself but for some reason decided not to take it. I think he must have been instructed to stay on the flank of Fierceness, which is exactly what he did, angling out rather than grabbing the rail. This left it open (sort of!) for Hernandez and MD, and the rest is history. If Stronghold was taken to the wide open rail, Mystic Dan would have been third at best.
If Sierra Leone had kept a straight path ‘Dan finishes third….
…and I bet on ‘Dan…..
And if MD wasn’t smashed at the top of the lane, he may have opened up further and faster on everyone eliminating the need for a photo. He took a helluva hit from Track Phantom. See my comments above.
If the Derby winning Mystik Dan doesn’t run in the Preakness, it could lead to another lackluster Preakness. Just like last year. With Maryland apparently scrapping the idea of moving the Preakness to Laurel and choosing instead to refurbish Pimlico, I’d like to see them make a few changes to enhance Preakness Day. Move both the Pimlico Special and Black-eyed Susan from Friday to Saturday. Make Preakness Day a “Super Day” like Belmont Day. Black-eyed Susan Friday is never going to be a big day again that I can foresee. Not like Oaks Day or BC Friday. Beef up Preakness Day so that there will be supporting races to support what is becoming a lackluster Preakness too many times lately.
We must also address the spacing of the Triple Crown, Tommy. I believe that keeping the first Saturday in May for the Derby, then holding the Preakness on Memorial Day weekend (4 weeks) and capping it off with the Belmont on July 4th weekend (5 weeks) will enhance the chances that we’ll see more Derby horses participate in all three Triple Crown races. The short break of 2 weeks between the Derby and Preakness just doesn’t cut it in this day and age.
Then what happens to the Haskell and Travers?
It’s hardly surprising that Saturday’s Kentucky Derby set a wagering record. Churchill really worked for it by opening wagering days early. I love the big money pools. Good payoffs and we don’t see those last second odds swings that we see on a weekly basis. All-in-all it was a very exciting Derby Day to me even though I lost some of my bankroll on both Friday and Saturday. Not too much. I still have a healthy bankroll going into the Preakness.
I’m thinking of adjusting my betting patterns to only play on the big days because of the bigger pools, bigger fields, and big payoffs. There is probably an average of a big day every month. Three here in May with the Oaks, Derby, and Preakness. A Saratoga Belmont in June. The Travers in August. Breeders Cup Friday & Saturday in November. Pegasus Day in January. Then the Derby prep races starting in February. This feels like a pretty good plan to me. We’ll see.
Thanks again this year for putting me on the winner as you have been doing since before the Smarty Party! I had the first 5 across the finish line and only hit the winner, still made $100. Congratulations to the winners, GREAT ride. I really was impressed by the 2 Japanese runners and of course neither broke well. Vest La vie. Still very proud of those Cajun jockeys who will ride the hair off. I sure miss the bush tracks in South Louisiana where they learned. It was the most fun on the weekends matching races. You my friend are not only the best handicapper but a story teller like no other.
Thank you so much Randall. I really appreciate the kind words. I’m not sure what meant by having the five across the wire. In what form of a bet? Sounds like a killing to me.. but glad you had the winner and made money.
I had Sierra Leon 3rd which killed all my bets except win on Dan. Didn’t want to put him 2nd too much money 💰still cursing.
The list of “possibles” for the Preakness is uninspiring to my eyes. Tuscan Gold is listed but seems more likely for the Belmont to me. We’ll be hearing a lot about Muth between now and Preakness Day. I think Muth is a good horse. Certainly, better than his stablemate Imagination who is also being pointed to the race. Muth is likely to be way over bet. We’ve been hearing about BB’s revenge and how his horses are going to dominate the Preakness for weeks. My feeling is to try and beat Muth. A good horse, but no world beater. With Mystik Dan 50/50 to run in Baltimore, Muth will be the favorite and maybe a very heavy favorite. Hoping to find an upsetter when the field is announced. Tuscan Gold would be interesting if he goes in the Preakness. Let’s see if he bypasses next Saturday’s Peter Pan. Hey! How about Fierceness? While I know that Todd Pletcher would never run him back in 2 weeks unless he would have won the Derby, Fierceness is probably still pretty fresh after not doing too much running last Saturday. And we know by looking at Fierceness’ yo-yo pattern that his next race is going to be a beauty. I wouldn’t touch him in the race after his next one though.
Sounds like it could be a repeat of lastvyear with the same result.
I hope that Tuscan Gold runs in the Preakness. I have him in the futures for $20 to win @ 21-1.
This morning the Japanese horses left by van to start their long journey home.
As they were being walked to the van each handler stopped and waved at the camera.
Forever Young turned his head and looked at the camera, ears pricked and head held high as if HD too was saying good-bye.
I could not stop the few tears that filled my eyes and trickled down my cheeks.
Forever Young is inbred 5Sx5D to Secretariat. His pose was so remindful of how Secretariat and California Chrome loved interacting with the camera and their fans.
I cannot explain my deep attachment to this colt. Some horses just reach out and grab your heart and hold it forever.
I feel honored by his presence here and that of Mr Yahagi, his handlers and his jockey this past month. It is as if I am witnessing the birth, growth and development of the Japanese dirt track Thoroughbred that makes me think that they will eventually dominate the sport. Sunday Silence, a horse the elites did not want, did not care for was taken to Japan and became the foundation sire for a phenomenal sucess story.
Cannot say good-bye to Forever Young, only say see ya soon hopefully in the Breeders Cup.
On another note, those of you who are familiar with Arabians probably know the story of the bloody shoulder on greys.
Mr Demeritte mentioned West Saratoga’s unusual coloring in an interview.
West Saratoga has the bloody shoulder on his left side. The influence of the Arabian horse on the Thoroughbred cannot be denied.
His dream came to fruition when West Saratoga ran in the Derby and ran a very respectable 12th.
I hope his dream continues and West Saratoga makes it to the Belmont.
Call me silly, sentimental, whatever. This sport, these horses continues to be 150 years later the fabric that dreams are made from.
I feel your emotion, Lynda. I too, hate to say goodbye to Forever Young and his personable connections. They tugged at my heart and lured me onto the Forever Young bandwagon. This horse has everything I look for in a thoroughbred…. heart, guts and a strong will to win. As a bonus, he has a great personality and a love of people. I do think that Forever Young will return to the States for the Breeders’ Cup and when he does, we’ll be waiting to welcome him back with open arms.
Anzen nani tabi (Safe journey), Forever Young and thank you for giving me so many thrills.
I have the same feelings about Forever Young. I felt so sorry for him. And now I am a big fan of TO Password as well. What an amazing race he ran.
I’d love your thoughts on Honor Marie, Steve – he ran a remarkable race, I thought
It seems to me that the Derby often tells us as much about the losers as the winner
Very true Betsy. As the old saying goes, “it is not if you win or lose, it is how you play the game”.
I am very postivive that we will see more of Honor Marie this year.
Hopefully we will see more colts and fillies racing at 4 and not so many retired to the breeding shed.
Exactly, Lynda – I love the Derby, but it’s not a normal race, and horses’ careers will be more than just that race.
I wish HM had had a real shot, but he literally just turned 3 on Saturday, so he has a really bright future
He could even be a good turf horse if he ever tries it – his pedigree screams it
That’s why I love the derby. The back stories of these horses and more exposure to their workouts and personalities. It’s not just the racing aspect of it that makes this sport. The stories and intriguing personalities we see and hear.
I still remember and crazy Lani lol.
I along with many others loved Lani.
His little bad boy personality was somewhat endearing.
Lynda King, I hope NYRA reaches out to Forever Young for him to run in Saratoga at the Travers. I have fallen in love with him. He has the heart and intelligence of Secretariat and Sunday Silence.
Me too Terri.
FY will not return until this fall, if then.
Certainly kicking myself for subbing Stronghold in my top 5 for Mystik Dan. I am both flaky and sentimental, and I couldn’t pass up the Ghostzapper baby. I was hoping the old man could get a little stallion register bump. Instead, a young man who was a fun horse to watch gets it!
My Dad had Mystik Dan because he liked the look and the name, and we had also been discussing the works and the horses for two weeks. He was thrilled about the results. He said, “he’s going to get stuck behind horses!” I said, “No, they’re waiting for Track Phantom, because he’s tiring, and he’s going to float wide on the turn.” Darned if that didn’t happen. I have a former feral cat who decided to be coaxed in out of the cold. He does farm chores around here with us like a dog, and his name is Steely Dan (although he’s more of a Plush Dan these days). Dad loves this cat, who has been like a good-health charm, since he appeared here a couple of years back right after my parents both had – and survived – major cardiovascular events that should have killed them. So Dad was all over Mystik Dan.
My cousin had asked my opinions on Tuesday, so he could have picks for a bachelor party weekend. I told him Forever Young and Mystik Dan, and he did VERY well! He owes his payout, in large part, to one Steve Haskin! He also sent me a pretty great video of all the guys, just back from deep sea fishing, watching the race and cheering and laughing, enjoying themselves. It made me smile that folks who aren’t day to day race fans got the same thing I did out of Saturday. Maybe they aren’t thinking about it today, but it was important enough to come in off the ocean in time to watch on Saturday.
Sierra Leone paddles/wings out.
Steve has mentioned this several times, his eratic running style that makes his legs look like they are going in different directions.
It is a deviation in movement of the front legs such that the lower leg rolls out instead of moving exactly forward and backward in a straight line as viewed from the rear or the front. The tests for this condition are actually quite simple. And if you are a horseowner no doubt one of the first things a competent, qualified farrier will do is left the leg and bend it back at the knee and then the hock to check for proper alignment to the back of the upper leg or in the case of the hock, check for proper alignment to the back of the lower leg. The winging out in most horses is usually from the hock rather than from the knee.
Winging out can be the result of genetics, faulty conformation or congenital. If congenital the alignment can be corrected in slight to moderate cases with a leg brace. In extreme cases surgery is required. If genetic or the result of faulty conformation the only thing that can help is the way the hoof is trimmed. The horse does learn as he or she grows to compensate or adjust for the defect.
Depending on the degree of the winging/paddling the horse can be off balance. Depending on the use of the horse such as flat racing or barrel racing there is wear and tear on the hock and knee joints and over time conditions such as ring bone can develop.
Winging/paddling also results in the horse tiring quicker on the affected leg during competition.
The fact that Sierra Leone lugs or leans in on the left side can be the result of being off balance or the tiring associated with the defect.
It is hard work for Tyler to keep him straight as h first has to slow Sierra Leone just a bit before using the crop as the aid to get him to run straight.
Sierra Leone might possibly have learned that leaning in on the horse next to him is intimidating to the other horse. As I mentioned in a comment sometime back, he had a workmate to his outside and when the workmate speeded up Sierra Leone pinned his ears back and leaned into the workmate from the right. He does not, as I have observed, wing out on the right front.
In the Derby, Sierra Leone leaned, bumped, whatever you want to call it so hard that Forever Young almost lost his balance, lost his forward movement.
There is a still photo of Sierra Leone leaning so hard on Forever Young that his jockey Sakai was almost ejected from his seat.
Forever Young did start leaning in on Sierra Leone close to the wire. Was he tiring and drifting as some have suggested or had he had enough and pushed back on Sierra Leone. This is the point in the race that two horses were so close that Tyler could not get his crop around to correct Sierra Leone and for a second Tyler lost his balance.
In my opinion neither Tyler or Sakai were racing riding. The bumping was not intentional on their parts. Both jockeys knew what the other was dealing with. Both colts lost momentum that cost the finish of the race.
It is a miracle that Sierra Leone and Forever Young did not lock legs or Tyler and Sakai were unseated or that Mystic Dan was not slammed into the rail and all three could have gone down.
A complaint was not filed by Sakai not because he does not speak English or knows the rules on American race tracks, he knew his horse was guilty of leaning in and what Tyler was trying to do. Tyler did not file a complaint because he knew Sierra Leone was guilty.
Sierra Leone is a big, strong, talented, fast colt but in this field of 20 horses his winging out and leaning in came within a whisker of creating a tragedy that could have cost the lives of both riders and horses.
Deacon, you nailed it. “Sierra Leone’s running style in a 20 horse field is a recipe for disaster”.
Yep. Forget the starting gate, let’s get this colt running in his own lane when he’s told to stay there. He did exactly what I was afraid he would. All that walk-trot-slow gallop work for Forever Young is absolutely what saved him, in my mind, because he was miraculously strong enough and fit enough to withstand it.
After a while, appearances being what they are, it looked like Tyler and Sakai got into the spirit of things and just whacked each other or the other’s horse once or twice. In actuality, I’m with you, Lynda: I think Tyler had to balance on FY to not die. Forever Young may owe his life to Tyler, and Tyler may owe his to FY.
The post race justification by Chad Brown ticked me off. It brought the NCAA playoffs to mind, when people who definitely fouled got called and acted like they hadn’t… and then couldn’t believe how unfairly they’d been targeted. It’s tiresome. He’s a big, fine horse who clearly has a mind of his own. That’s nice, to an extent, but he has to be controllable, not the school bus in a demo derby! Or – bear with me for this asinine comparison – Walter Farley’s (fictional track terrorist) The Black.
Here’s what I think: train your horse. As we say around here, “Control your equine, man!” The problem with racing – and riding in general – is that you can have them do something pretty well at the slower gaits, and lose a whole lot of control when things get fast – even when being fast is the intent. Especially when the horse is as strong as Sierra Leone! I’m not sure how they correct this, but Mr. Brown ought to get right on a plan.
Before the derby, I voiced my concern with Sierra Leone’s habit of moving left. I was worried that he would eventually cause some interference or potentially caused some harms.
Well I guess what I feared came true on my derby horse.
I look forward to seeing Forever Young again at the breeders cup.
I hope Sierra Leone learns to run straight because it would make him much better and safer for racing.
I agree with so many things others have said! I have tried to type this post 5-6 times, and the website hates me: if I have to use the backspace, the site freezes, and it’s start all over. Now, here I am like a drunk girl still singing and dancing around when the party is over, the lights are on, the band is on the bus, and the bouncer is asking me to please leave. No really, go away. You don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay here…
Congratulations to the connections of Mystik Dan on a tremendous Derby! Brian Hernandez, Kenny McPeek, and their two winners for the weekend were in rarified air during the last couple of weeks,. When it came time to prove what they had, they brought it. Boy, did they have it! Chef’s kiss on the rides, Mr. Hernandez. I hope Calvin Bo”rail” saw.
I know we all long for the days when horse racing was horse racing, but I happen to love horse breeding and genetics, so I don’t get too uptight about it actually being horse breeding. So the things I want to say in this post that I haven’t seen written are on the topics of mare power and pedigrees in Derby 150.
Thanks to Mr. McPeek’s bloodline smarts, and owner/breeders who listen, Mystik Dan sports a pedigree with no inbreeding through 5 generations. Mystik Dan’s dam, Ma’am (ram-ba-lam), also has no inbreeding through 5 generations. Although we are losing the Man O’War sireline, she – and therefore Dan – go back to Man O’War through Colonel John-Tiznow, etc. So just because the sireline is drying up, don’t think MOW will not be found in pedigrees. Still, what a shame for Colonel John to have been sold to Korea…
By now, we probably all know that there’s some kind of crime going on if Darling My Darling does not win Broodmare of the Year. I have to believe (and I haven’t gone back to look, I admit) that producing two filly offspring who then go on to produce colts in the same year who both reach the Kentucky Derby is unprecedented. For them to have been bred on different sides of the globe, and THEN to both hit the board in the tightest finish I can recall… well, hats off to The Cousins!
I think that many of the folks who enjoy Steve’s blog are longtime racefans, so this might be of interest. In the pedigrees of each of the top 3 finishers, you will find the Tricky Creek-Clever Trick- Icecapade succession. They do not occur in the same position in Mystik Dan’s pedigree as the Cousins, but they are there. Why would we care? Icecapade was Ruffian’s older half brother – both out of Shenanigans. So I would be willing to bet that more than a few of you will like seeing that. If Shenanigans’ daughter didn’t get the chance we would have chosen to influence the future of the breed, her son did. Ruffian may be the first, most famous bearer of the “brittle speed” moniker, but that certainly did not show itself in these 3 horses on 5/4/24. All three of them had some tricky moments, with Mystik Dan scrubbing Track Phantom during his bid for the lead (ya gotta move if you aren’t going on), and Forever Young nearly knocked off of his feet at the first contact with Sierra Leone… and all three came home with their legs intact. Hopefully, their spirits as well.
As always, hands over our hearts for Secretariat, and daughters Weekend Surprise and Terlingua. Thanks, Big Red.
An honorable mention for mare power in this Derby has to go to Puca, despite Dornoch’s lackluster performance, which we pretty much all expected. (My daughter had to go away to her room to pout for quite some time after it was over, she was so high on Dornoch and his two wall eyes.)
Everyone else has said all the things, but because I’ve been bottled up as far as posts, I might make another after I think for a moment about narcissism. Being able to type this without losing it has been a relief!
I am VERY excited for what Steve has for us in the next few days!
Well, Katy, I’m way behind you on pedigrees,, except for a few betting angles, but i do enjoy your writing. Can almost hear your voice, or someone’s , with a southern country girl twang.
Katy: wonderful post on mare power! I am with you on Darling My Darling — my jaw dropped when I saw the connection when investigating pedigrees of early contenders on the Trail — and thanks for pointing out that Mystik Dan’s damsire descends from Man o’War. (Thank you, In Reality and Tiznow, two of my favorite horses.) Your story about your daughter reminds me of myself at age 12, when I pouted for days when Abe’s Hope lost of Kauai King in the 1966 Derby. Hope there is STILL a Kentucky Derby 50 years from now. And I’ll be looking for that Tricky Creek — Clever Trick — Icecapade connection on any future contenders too.
Blessed are the broodmares!
Not only did the Derby day have the highest TV ratings since 1989, it set a record for most money wagered. According to Churchill Downs, $210.7 was wagered on Derby, beating the record by $20 mil and overall Kentucky Derby day wagering was $320.5 mil, beating the record of $288.7 mil.
A record $10.1 million was the money wagered from Japan…
I am very proud of how well Forever Young ran. Being fortunate to see him in Riyadh and Dubai and seeing how great he appeared to be, it’s exciting to see it come to fruition in the Derby even with the bumping. I read he is leaving to go back home tomorrow but I hope he comes over for the Breeder’s Cup. He has a life time fan. The Japanese horses are not just coming, they are here.
Agreed Bill. Had him to win.
Amen! I hope they have safe travels, and Forever Young gets a good rest for a few weeks. He’s had quite the Spring campaign. Having him train at Churchill for a few weeks HAD to have brought fans to the sport. How can you not love one that rides around soft, lets kids pet him, and poses for photos? Then, that same individual dukes it out with a horse who outweighs him by probably 150 pounds all the way to the wire?! That was when he reminded me of Sunday Silence!
T O Password absolutely exceeded all my expectations!
That’s a good point, Katy. Interest in Forever Young could definitely have impacted the TV ratings in a positive way. I, too, have become very fond of this horse. What a combination–laid-back , open to new experiences, a sheer tiger when it comes time to compete. He’s an inspiration to me. And yes, I initially didn’t expect T O Password to do well given his skittishness earlier in the week, but come Derby Day he had his game face on and ran a terrific race!
Katy and arlington fan, two lovely posts. Round of applause from me to both of you!
Aw, thanks, Lynda! That is kind of you. I felt the same way about your post on Forever Young above.
Where did you find the footage of his departure?
JRA World Racing Twitter page.
Thanks, Lynda!
Bill, agree, they ARE here!
I just read that this was the most-watched Derby since 1989! What do you suppose drew the interest of so many non-racing people this year? It’s not like there was a superstar like Secretariat in the field. Whatever the reason, I hope a few of the people who watched a race for the first time will sustain their interest from here.
Yeah, without a certain trainer in attendance. Go figure!
Without that trainer, the other big name trainers failed as usual-3 straight years. Preakness will be the Baffert invitational.
You might want to check your facts prior to making that statement. Kenny McPeek is in the top FIVE standings according to Bloodhorse. BB rarely travels outside of CA. His winning percentage is bloated because he dominates the small fields at Santa Anita.
GL with the 6-5 shot on Preakness day. That one will be tough to handicap.
Believe it or not Jeff, many trainers don’t care for. For example, Fierceness is a horse have respect for, however not connections. Baffert stated few years back “no one remembers the Preakness”.
This AM on the Willman Show…Ray PAULICK said the Churchill stewards “swallowed their whistles” and let it go—having finally seen the stretch head-on I am surprised that they decided to not even REVIEW it—I did not see Forever Young “starting the contact”, instead I saw Sierra Leone bumping the smaller colt time and again, Tyler kept getting him straight, and the horse kept on plowing into his rival ….BIW I realize how LUCKY I am, to have cashed my big Oaks/Derby Double ….I owe it to a heady ride…..and to Sierra Leone ….
Sierra Leone is a menace to society. I sure hope they can teach him to run in a straight line. a-squared + b-squared = c-squared… c-squared is the long way home, and you can’t go as fast when you are mugging another colt.
I think they DQ’ed Maximum Security for far less, although given the revelations about the hideously unscrupulous doping, maybe that was serendipitous for the big race.
You might to re-watch the replay of the 2019 KD. Maximum Security went from the one path to the four path in a mere two seconds and interfered with three horses.
The doping issue…..now that you mention it, there are fan boys that still to this day do not associate that term with certain trainer(s). Apparently, some walk on water.
Actually watched that race last week. I always thought the DQ was justified, but I still think it was less obvious because it was about paths and checked forward progress, not the contact (although Maximum Security came back in and bumped Code of Honor as he went up the rail). I remember that I spent quite a bit of time texting with friends that day and explaining that, no it is NOT like in NASCAR, and that’s absolutely, definitely not the point of it. That was another day when it was lucky that every horse made it back to his stall, and every rider to his family. I know the stewards still caught a lot of guff for it. My point (poorly executed) was that the SL/FY bumping was true contact interference, right there in the stretch in a part of the track we could all see, and seemingly more obvious to everybody.
As far as the doping… no apologies for cheaters here. Touch the stove, get burned. Additionally, pretty much everywhere, “I didn’t know” is not a defense.
To me, the saddest thing about breaking medication rules in horse racing is that we will never know how good the horses actually were, or even if they were helped… or hindered.
Even the use of drugs du jour that would seem to actually be beneficial and aren’t specifically banned can go terribly wrong, like during the Osphos rage that very likely contributed to increased breakdowns in the years after the easy-to-administer IM formula was introduced (vs. Tildren as an IV infusion). That ended up coming to a head in… what do you know? 2019.
Also chalk up to the “I didn’t know” line of thinking the fact that there was no inquiry lodged on behalf of Forever Young. They apparently didn’t know they could/should have. Oops. So they settled for 3rd, and (despite the emotional aspects of this), that is where history will have him.
At the time, i disagreed with the Maximum Security DQ, but in hindsight, maybe it was, as Katy states, “serindipitous.” What rankles me is that I am pretty sure the initial objection was lodged by Jon Court, on a distant also ran and not Tyler G on War of Will, who was most impacted but had nothing to gain with a sour grapes objection. Made the former jock seem small and raised TG, whose class is never in doubt.
With the Belmont being held at Saratoga this year at 1 1/4 no “Test of Champions”, I would expect to see a 14 horse field. It could be a very interesting race who shows up.
Tommy Mcd, thanks for mentioning thoses exotics boxes. I hope you bet on it. Being you brought it up I have to add that Mystik Dan was my No. 1 win bet.
Breaking news for Kirbarkhan (by California Chrome).
He is now in Kentucky.
Possible plans to race here but nothing so far confirmed.
Thanks for the update Lynda… Do you hapen to know who is going to train him in America?
Supposedly he is at the Winstar Farms training center in Lexington.
Neal McLaughlin is the head trainer at the farm. I know nothing about him.
It seems that Winstar helped facilitate bringing him to America.
Kirbarkhan has been in Meydan since the World Cup race.
Not to insinuate anything but Winstar also has a rehab facility.
As I recall Justify was first trained at the Winstar training center before the connections asked Bob Baffert to take him.
If and when I learn more I will pass the information along.
Nelson, I did some more digging around and found a very brief video of his arrival at Winstar on a Chrome fan page that I am not a member of.
There was aomment that he is there to rest and recover while his owner is considering a coach which is their wor for trainer.
He looks really good and did not see anything amiss in his stride etc. Not sure what “recover” means and not going to speculate.
His previous trainer in Kazakhastan was not happy with Doug not entering him a prep race before the Wotld Cup, said something like he was only 50% ready and underweight.
It had been mentioned way back that his Russian connections wanted him to race in the Breeders Cup. So maybe that is why he is here.
I watched the World Cup and he did wash out in the walking ring. I think it was the noise and the crowd in the walking ring. It was packed with people. One jockey had to fight his way through to get to his mount.
There are a couple of trainers here in US I pray he does not end up with.
Doug being Doug Watson.
For me,more than a couple Lynda.
I thought he DID have a prep race?……
Not for the Dubai World Cup.
Steve you would know this cuz I cannot remember his name—a NY based trainer ran a sprinter on back-to-back days….I think one race was the Fall High weight, and it was two stakes at different tracks, the horse won one race and finished 2nd in the other race…..but I cannot remember the horse or trainer’s name….
Around 1980….
I know Rick Dutrow did that
Happy Sunday everyone.
Congratulations to all the winners on both Oaks and Derby Day in all the races and to everyone winning their bets.
It was undoubtedly one of the best and most exciting Derby’s I have ever watched.
My picks were Fiereceness (15th), Forever Young (3rd), Sierra Leone (2nd), Honor Marie (8th), Resiliance (6th) and West Saratoga (12th) and I am very proud of each and every one!
I had a feeling that something special was going to happen in the 150th Anniversiary of the Kentucky Derby and so it did.
Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez won their first Derby Oaks with Thoepedo Anna and first Kentucky Derby with Mystic Dan. Last time a trainer won both races was 72 years ago in 1952. Mr McPeek said that Mystic Dan wore the same bridle as Anna and that the bridle would be auctioned for charity.
The last time there was a 3 way photo finish in the Derby was 77 years ago in 1947.
Larry Demeritte was the first Black American to train a Derby horse in 30 years.
Forever Young taking 2nd was the highest place finish in the history of UAE Derby winners and the best finish of a Japanese horse in the Derby.
After last year’s Rocky Horror Picture Show Oaks and Derby Day races, it was such a relief to read that all the horses came out in good order other than Domestic Spending throwing a shoe and grabbing a quarter at the start, Where’s My Ring tendon injury, Forever Young’s cut on the leg.
Many in the field will be headed to Saratoga to train up for the Belmont.
Now it is on to the Preakness. As reported earlier today, the field will be all “fresh horses”.
Have a great week everyone!
Lynda, thanks for reminding us what a special Derby and Oaks week it has been. There were no breakdowns and no jockeys were injured. I loved that Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez, Jr. won the double of the Oaks and Derby. McPeek was involved in the breeding of the homebred (picking the sire and suggesting the owner buy and breed the mare). I was so pleased for the Japanese owners and for the late great grandsire, Sunday Silence. And it was great that there was finally a black trainer.
PETA had nothing to say.
You are welcome!
Such a relief that all horses and jockeys on both days were safe.
I read earlier that Mr Demeritte might be taking West Saratoga to train up for the Belmont.
Forever Young was 3rd, not 2nd.
Discopartner, Lyda King was correct, Forever Young should have been second. And Sierra Leone should have been third after all the interference with Forever Young. Sierra Leone has a severe lugging in problem which Tyler Gafflione did his best to correct. Either the stewards are disinterested or are overly involved at Churchill Downs.
Tyler Gafflione should be the hero of that race as he prevented so many terrible things from happening.
I think in a lot of peoples’ hearts, Forever Young will be remembered as being second. It’s history now, but oh to have had those three come to the wire cleanly… but I wouldn’t want to take the win away from Dan and the connections.
Very cool about Thorpedo Anna and Mystik Dan wearing the same bridle!
Mystik Dan’s win meant that ReRun, Inc. got a $25K donation, Sierra Leone’s 2nd got $20K for the Kentucky Equine Adoption Center, and Forever Young was paired with Secretariat Center, which will receive $15K. Pretty fittingly, Catching Freedom won $10K for TB Retirement Network of Louisiana with his (gutsy) 4th place finish. The rest of the aftercare charities will get $5K each. They can each buy about 10 bags of feed and one big alfalfa bale. (Just kidding.)
LOL, 10 bags of feed and a big alfalfa bale…that is about right.
Great post, Lynda. I remembered Jet Pilot had won (thanks to grade school memorization of ALL Derby winners), but interestingly, the horse that was second, Phalanx, won the Belmont. Faultless, who ran third that day, won the Preakness.
Thank you Ms B.
What are the chances of what happened in 1947 happening today?
Just wondering why they never posted the Steward’s Inquiry sign when there obviously was one going on. And tight as the win photo was, it was still a very clear, routine nose that took forever to post on the board. After what went on in 2019, I guess the cluelessness of CD is to be expected.
Did Byk give you credit for picking a winner, Steve?
Mystik Dan’s trip makes me sick to my stomach. I tip my cap to you, Forever Young.
Why?
I don’t know for a fact but I would guess becauss because Mystik Dan got a perfect trip along the rail & Forever Young & Sierra Leone had difficult trips.
Sierra Leone 6 wide around thenturn, traffic trouble. I thought he was the best horse but his running style in a 20 horse field is a recipe for disaster.
I like Kenny McPeek. I don’t know a lot about him but he seems like a good guy.
I thought Brian Hernandez rode 2 stellar races, Oaks & Derby.
Kudos to him………..
Thank you Deacon.
It was not a clean trip. See my comments above and watch the NBC replay on Youtube. He got hit hard by Track Phantom.
You mean you didn’t see him get smashed by Track Phantom? His trip was not without issue and certainly not clean. That veer in by TP almost cost him the race and certainly knocked some steam out of him. He was lucky and tough enough to fight through it.
My mind drew a blank and I was too lazy/forgetful to look up who the BC Juvenile winner Fierceness reminded me of before the race, so today I did. Favorite Trick. I didn’t use Fierceness in my myriad Trifecta wagers and the one I used Mystic on top I neglected Forever Young. Fortunately earlier Trikahri came through to save my day. I couldn’t believe $144 for my 3$ win and $328 for my 1$ double to Gun pilot. Thanks Steve for all your spot on insights, I wish my erratic brain could have conjured up the trifecta.
It’s looking like there may be no Derby contestants, for The Preakness, I’m liking Imagination….
You’re the man, Steve.
The horses with the best Thoro-Graph numbers moving forward were spot on.
Fierceness was due for a bounce, and he did just that. If you take him out of the equation, the next three with the best Thoro-Graph numbers were as follows:
Mystik: 0+Plus (1/4)
Forever Young: 1
Sierra Leone: 1 1/2
There’s the $1.00 Trifecta, which paid $1,113.84.
Sometimes it’s hard to see the forest for the trees.
In the future, I’ll certainly factor in Thoro-Graph numbers, during the handicapping process.
Congratulations on hitting that win wager on Mystic Dan.
I try to emphasize those numbers as much as possible, and I’m glad someone noticed how well it did. Thanks Bill.
According to the folo story in the DRF, Mystik Dan left three quarts of feed in his dinner bucket last night. Sounds like the race took a lot out of him. I think McPeek is wise to be cautious about committing to the Preakness.
Ms B, agree.
Usual trolls on another site chastising McPeek regarding M.D. maybe skipping
Preakness.
Where’s My Ring suffered a tendon injury in the Oaks. Not considered serious but will be out for a bit.
Congratulations to Kenny McPeak and his glorious double win in the 150th Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.
The McPeaks are very friendly and I have been a face book follower. They are a lovely couple and are a close knit family.
Kenny McPeak has an uncanny talent for spotting terrific horses at bargain prices.
Hello Terri.
Hi Mike Relva good to see you. I hope you are doing well and that you did better than me in the Derby.
By the way, the Bloodhorse had the interview of the Kentucky Derby winner’s connections. McPeak had a big hand in the breeding of Mystik Dan. He helped the owner select the Dam and then selected Golden Sense as the sire. He boarded the dam and foal at his Kentucky Farm. A Kentucky Derby winner can come from anywhere.
Yes, for sure! Selected FY to win.
Hey, I was wondering where you were.
What a heck of a finish. MD ran the race of his life by skimming the rail and holding on for dear life.
As for Sierra Leone, Chad Brown needs to work on the horse to keep a straight path. Puzzling he was not disqualified. Fusaichi Pegasus remains the only seven figure horse to win a KD.
Ben Curtis on Honor Marie: My race was over coming out of the gate. I got speared from both sides, I lost an iron and had to put it back in. He was nearly down on his head but I gave him time to pick himself up. He didn’t get the smoothest first quarter of a mile and I just let him float around a bit after that. Then I took to the inside because I didn’t want to give away any more ground. He paid for the early exertion.
To finish 8th of 20 after all that is truly remarkable. I do wish they’d limit the Derby to 14-16 horses. So many good horses lose all chance at the start.
I’m so proud of Honor Marie for withstanding that awful start and rough trip, and still running well. The Derby often tells us more about a horse in defeat than victory …
I hope he emerged unscathed – I wonder why we didn’t hear from Beckman?
My payouts from future wagers..
Mystik Dan $22,200.00
Sierra Leone $17,800.00
Forever Young $22,800.00
It was nice to have a photo finish with all three futures involved
I had a total of nine future wagers from Feb. that made it to the starting gate.
Good luck to ALL wagering for the rest of the year !
GREAT JOB as usual Mr Steve Haskin , Looking forward to next year !
Congratulations
Thanx Lynda
Also, I did not invest one dollar on Fierceness.
Just had to throw that in. LOL
Congrats Mark on your pool 2 Exacta hit….
I am curios as to how is Forever Young paying if he was not part of the Exacta?
Did your Forever Young wins came after a bet yesterday?
Hi Nelson , I did not bet pool 2. I put my bets in starting Feb.4th at William Hill and then at Circa sports. I live in Vegas. It’s convenient for me. I just posted my will pays if the horse won. It was exciting having all three at the wire.
Thanks for the reply… I forgot that there are other futures apart from the ones from CDI … congrats again for your lucrative predictions…
Steve Haskin was very good with his betting suggestions other than the in-and-outer Fierceness. Mr. Haskin suggested using Sierra Leone and Fierceness in exacta and trifecta boxes with five others that he named above. He gave us the map for success. That map could have also led you to the superfecta. Great job, Sir.
Congrats to Mystik Dan and Hernandez. What an amazing ride.
Did not think forever young and Sierra Leone would battle it out like that to the wire. The female line of the two is legit.
One of the best derbies I’ve seen for a while. Onto Preakness. Wonder if forever young will run? He is the real deal!
Forever Young sustained a cut to his left foreleg during the race. Not thought to be serious. Saw a photo of him munching hay, the leg was wrapped.
What an athlete! Hope all is good. I hope they rest him and go for Belmont.
Poor Honor Marie got bounce around at the start.
I’m still in awe of the race.
WickedOne, not confirmed but “hearing” Forever Young going home for a well deserved rest and will most likely be back for Breeders Cup.
Not sure about T O Password yet, his jockey said in an interview he hopes TOP stays for the Preakness.
Darn!!! It’s too bad. He would love the Belmont. I hope to see him back for the breeders cup. Much respect for the team and especially to Forever Young with his racing campaign. Love this guy.
T O Password heading home on Tuesday with Forever Young.
Thx Lynda. It’s been an awesome derby. Hope you enjoyed it.
Thanks Tommy. Remember I gave out Mystik Dan as my No. 1 win bet.,
If they were going to pay $2.3million for Sierra Leone, you would think that they would have detected his paddling issue or whatever causes him to lug in. He does it every time and now it has cost him 2 races. One being the biggest race of his young life.
I remember a horse named Vekoma that had an even more apparent paddling issue. It never kept him from running fast. He was pretty lightly raced and wasn’t around very long that I can remember. I can’t remember Vekoma lugging in or out though. It’s been a while, but he seemed to run pretty straight.
Collmus was the last to know Mystic Dan was several lengths in front. It happens…
He was fixated on Resilience and Stronghold…
They ALWAYS miss that inside horse, no matter who has the mic. Watch Mine That Bird and Rich Strike… can’t hit that pitch, apparently.
Not one of Larry’s better calls. If you go to YOUTUBE and Search : Kentucky Derby 2024 there is the full race under the title: Incredible finish as Mystik Dan wins 150th Kentucky Derby …. moniker under ::: At the Races. Much better stretch call. Has a great “classic” call when he said “Mystik Dan is begging for the finish line !!!!”
Absolutely, that is the one to pair with this epic Derby for the archives!
Mystic Dan was a deserving winner. Yes, he had a great trip, but he also had the turn of foot to get seperation on the field. I don’t think he ia a true 10 furlong horse, but he was good enough today. Fierceness seems to be a paper tiger. Sierra Leone has a good chance to be 3yo champion if he stops leaning on horses, and if Baffert’s two best colts stay on the MIA list. (Nysos, Maymun). Muth is probably about as good as those who ran today, so probably has the advantage for Preakness.
Yes, that inevitably is the case, with the colt who has the best trip wins the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness should be a fascinating race but the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga might be even better if Mindframe takes part.
Doesn’t matter, he was good enough yesterday. All that matters.
A few notes from the race chart. This being the Derby, nearly everyone got bumped at some point, some more, some less.
Sierra Leone: “eight wide entering the stretch” (!)
Forever Young: “caught in traffic into the first turn and steadied near the fifteen-sixteenths pole . . . seven wide into the stretch”
T O Password: “had the jockey lose the crop near the furlong marker and continued on well under a fierce hand ride”
Honor Marie: “jostled hard early,” “”caught in traffic and steadied into the first turn”
Fierceness: “vied in the four path around the far turn, but was surpassed by an outer pair and an inner bidder entering the lane and folded between horses”
Well, the losing streak continues. I did like MD, but i could have said that for half the field if they had won and the budget just didn’t stretch that far.
Was happy to see CF, SL, and FY finish as well as they did.
Fierceness will win another day.
Expect a massive run next time out, because, that’s what he does.
That’s it for me. Until next year.
Terribly exciting stuff. Little too exciting for me to handle on a regular basis.
Thanks again and congrats to all the winners!
Going to take my last two bucks and buy a lottery ticket to see if i can recoup my losses, because, I’m no dummy.
That’s Bozo the Clown saying bye for now. Thanks for the good time!
We still have the Preakness and a Belmont at Saratoga to look forward to. Lots to look forward to.
Thanks Tommy. I only do very big race days like the Derby and usually the Breeder’s Cup Classic, but i skipped the Classic last year and not sure what i will do this year.
There is too much improvement that still needs to be made to the sport for my conscience to allow me to play more often than that, but I don’t knock anyone that plays more often, and I’m very happy with how in-tune the sport appears to be regarding objections to the general public and the strides it has made to improve. We just all have to live with our conscience.
Best wishes to you on your future wagers.
Came on to see how well everyone did. I thought I’d be green with envy, but i see that I’m in good company with my loss. As they say, misery loves company. I had a blast though so not miserable and i always play with the knowledge that there is a good chance I won’t win. Fun to have something to root for though.
My only regret is that I didn’t go down to the track and buy the program. I did all my studying through youtube video replays and trying to remember all relevant info. A good deal of which i didn’t have time to delve into through the tube. I also spent too much time trying to sort out particular horses and didn’t get to all. Easier and less time consuming if you also have program.
All good though. It was of no surprise that i lost.
I do hope they will work on SL drive to the left. He’s thrown more than one horse off with that. Poor Epic Ride had lunged quickly left when he came at him in a prior meeting. He came at CF in a prior meeting too, but little David did not appear to be bothered by Goliath. He’s a tough one and he did have his own steering issues that probably cost him more. I do agree with many that he probably cost FY the race, as close as it was. Trainer and Jock needs to take that issue seriously or it’s going to cost him big. May be working to their favor now, but it will catch up with him.
Glad they all came out of it safe.
I do believe SL is a very talented race horse, and consistent. I do really like him, but they are doing him a disservice by not correcting that lunging to the left.
If i recall, didn’t appear as bad this time around so they may be working on it. I’ll have to see the replay again. I really haven’t looked at it real closely. CF appeared to be behind horses for some time, maybe awaiting an opening. I thought he ran great, all things considered.
Good for MD. Did great.
Felt bad for Japan after coming here to get so close, especially if he was impeded.
They can hold their heads high. Their horse proved he’s the real deal, taking on the best American three year olds. Such a cool horse all around. Would love to own him.
Think those are my last thoughts on the matter. May be back for BC Classic. I do expect to be back for next year’s Derby. Think I’ll try more future wagers next time. May be more profitable with less cash to spend. And if you like a horse early, you won’t leave him behind later.
Oh, lucky for you I do have one more thought
I wish they would do away with the spectacle called THE WALKOVER. I can see for immediate owners and trainers, but do they really have to have the their children, and grandchildren, and grandma, second, third, and fourth cousin with them with their big A___ hats,. Let’s not forget the drunken distant Uncles, and the pretenders looking to get their time in the limelight.
I get why they do it. I get it. I get it. I just don’t think it is necessary and probably causes more stress than necessary to young horses still maturing. They’ll already have plenty to deal with, with record breaking crowds and a 20 horse field.
Just my opinion, for what that’s worth. Ok, I’ve really taken too much space now so hopefully I’ll leave it at that before I expire my welcome.
Well… the Southwest was no fluke at all by the roadmap to win the Derby (by the rail)…!
Congrats to Ken McPeek and Brian Hernandez Jr. for their historical Oaks/Derby double. Well deserved achievement for two first class professionals.
Hernandez Jr. was the smartest in saving the most ground and mastering a very clean trip on lane one. I should have observed Steve’s comment about Mystik Dan being bumped hardly by Lieberal Arts and losing ground in the Arkansas Derby … at least I hit a saver exacta with the son of Goldencents and the two cousins… but I will have to wait to hit the more lucrative Derby trifecta, superfecta and high 5 …
Japan is getting closer every year. Forever Young lost nothing in defeat and T O Password also ran above expectations after a very slow break (which I predicted after analyzing his two previous races in Japan).
T O Password triggered a $316,000 High 5 payout… that’s is all the bettors look for in big pool days. Those five horse players will never forget this day…
And congrats to all our blog mates who made money with Mystik Dan… Can’t wait for the Preakness specially if the Japanese horses stay for the rest of the Triple Crown.
Forever Young ran huge; really should’ve claimed foul on Sierra; probably would’ve if finished 2nd.
Agree Jeff about a foul. Sierra Leone’s bumping and leaning in tactics might have cost him the race and in my Mindoro what I saw FY would have taken second.
Oh well, all is good, guess everyone came out safe and will race another day.
Forever Young would have won the Derby if not for Sierra Leone leaning on him. He only lost by two noses. FY is one very gutsy horse. I doubt that he runs in the Preakness in two weeks. He deserves a rest, after all.
Hope that you’re on the mend, Lynda.
Yes, agree with everyone Sierra Leone fouling Forever Young. Sierra Leone did similar antics to Catching Freedom in the Risen Star Stakes but no action.
In Europe, it wouldn’t be tolerated.
Hi Nelson. I just had a feeling T O Password was going run a good race.
I just should have paid attention to that little voice that told me to take a look at Mystic Dan, LOL.
Looking forward to the Preakness. Possible both Mystic Dan and Thorpedo Anna might run.
I too hope that both T O Password and Forever Young hang around for one or both of the other two legs of the TC.
Yes Lynda … T O Password is a testament to the quality of Japanese horses… being able to defeat 15 of the best 3-year-old horses in America with only 2 starts and practically comming off the airplane is indeed remarkable.
Interesting to see how the top Derby runners do against Baffert brigade in the Preakness and Belmont…!
I was so impressed by T O Password. Earlier in the week, I was thinking, “This horse is too jittery to deal well with the Derby crowd, ” but my, wasn’t he a picture in the walkover and the paddock!
T O Password could be ridden dressage.
His jockey dropped his riding crop and TOP was hand ridden.
Lynda King: It would be terrific if both Japanese horses stayed in the U.S. for at least the Preakness and possibly the Belmont. Also, I would love to see Forever Young in the Breeders Cup Classic.
I hope someone will interview Arthur Hancock about their great grandsire, Sunday Silence. Forever Young seems like a tough horse and a throwback to Sunday Silence.
I think that if Sierra Leone didn’t bump Forever Young he would have gotten at least second.
I was out for dinner – I read that Honor Marie got bounced around at the start?
What in the world happened to Fierceness? Left gate 17 and finished 17th.
I am so happy for West Saratoga, finished 12th.
I wonder, too. The Paulick Report says Fierceness was 15th. I’ll be curious to read the chart.
The comments will be Fierceness folded quickly like cheap paint.
He hopped at the start.
Made an error in my comment. Fierceness was wearing the 17 saddle cloth and yes he did finish 15th.
Wow, Forever Young almost did it! Japanese horses 3rd and 5th. And Steve was right about Mystik Dan!
Thank you Elizabeth. Ive been trying to talk people into betting him but no one liked him. I thought I gave a good explanation for his losses and his Thoro-Graph pattern. But everyone knocked his Southwest because of the slop and a rail bias.
Congratulations, Steve. You had Mystic Dan pegged to a tee. When am I going to learn to pay closer attention to our guru. Hope you cashed big.
I listened! Not much money on him because Im not a player and I dont really get how the different bets work but I had both him in the derby and thorpedo anna in the oaks!
Matthew and I listened. I posted this on the other site to trackjack on Keelers column 8 days ago.
“I’ve liked Mystik Dan for some time. Also really like Catching Freedom, but Mystik Dan’s Ark Derby was a great lesson for his barn. He needs to be closer, in this case near the front of the second group(behind the pace setters). If he gets that trip, he may very well be off to the races before the closers have enough ground to catch him.”
When I saw him on the far turn, I told my brother if he gets the rail on the turn for home, it’s over. Hernandez rode him expertly and bullied his way past Track Phantom to get the rail for the stretch, just like he did in the Southwest. I was on pins and needles though for that last 50 yards.
Your confidence in him helped me stay with my early pick. My 3/14 early derby 1 dollar exacta paid 372. The super and the trifecta paid much better.
Thanks again Steve, you make this game so much more enjoyable. Can’t wait for you column on MD.
Steve thank u for a great year of great columns I am Just such a fan of yours and truly appreciate and look forward to your columns ! Plus you were 100% right and on mystic Dan all year ! Thanks for all you do to make the derby so much fun every year
You’ll notice that Muth beat Mystik Dan fairly easily in Arkansas. Muth belonged here today. That’s the last I’ll say about it.
Not a particularly fast Derby.
Fierceness continues his yo-yo ways. Very good always followed by a dull one. I think he finished 15th.
We knew that Sierra Leone’s lugging in could cost him. He may have run best.
Forever Young ran a terrific race after getting all keyed up in the saddling ring.
Dornoch finished 10th. I’ll guess that he ran a BSF of between 88 and 91 like he has in his four previous races.
The numbers for next year: 2 for 65, 0 for 20, and the #17 post 0 for forever.
On to Baltimore in two weeks. I can almost guarantee that we won’t see Sierra Leone or Fierceness there. Maybe in the Belmont at Saratoga.
Incredible race! Congrats to the first three horses. Pletcher literally doesn’t know what he’s doing for the KD. Muth is clubhouse leader going into Preakness. If muth wins Preakness he has a clear advantage.
Hey Jeff!
Hi Mike, What’s ur thoughts?
Jeff, FY ran well, selected him to win. Stunned MD prevailed. Never had him in mix, SL-very good horse.
FY was impressive Sierra cost him the race in my opinion
Good observation! Agreed!
FY was clearly the best in the race considering all the troubles he had. Read the Equibase Chart to see how much trouble he had. For me the old adage that it’s better to be lucky than good came true as on Friday I placed a 70 dollar win bet on Mystik Dan who was going for 15/1 at the time. Somehow, he floated up to 18.5/1 at post which gave me a bonus of almost 250 more than it appeared it would at 15/1. Then today he barely held on and I really feel FY should have won. I’ve lost my share of photo finishes so I guess luck was on my side today.
Forever Young got warm in the walkover not the saddling paddock.
Both he and Honor Marie who was acting up in the walkover and getting warm cooled right down in the paddock.
Lynda King, Forever Young has issues with claustrophobia according to his connections. He became upset when the trainer put him back in the saddling area and calmed down as soon as he was parading in the paddock.
Sure and Dornoch drew a terrible post.
That photo was worth $5k for me! I am about to go to Caesar’s to collect and celebrate!!! Thanks, Steve; I hope you cashed on Mystik Dan!!!
Congratulations!
Thank you very much Lynda!!
Wow, congratulations!
Thanks a lot, arlingtonfan!
I did Biggy, thank you. I cashed a very nice ticket. So glad you made money on him.
An Oaks-Derby double couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy. Congratulations to Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, and every one of their connections.
I agree!
Thumbs up here too !!!
Double thumbs up
What a race! So glad both the Japanese horses did so well. I was screaming for Forever Young as he came down the stretch. Oh-so-close!
In fact, can anyone recall a closer Derby finish? None come to mind for me at the moment, at least not in recent years. Grindstone and Cavonnier were noses apart in 1996, though, right? I didn’t have TV then.
And has anyone else noticed that three of the last four Derby winners have had names beginning with “M”? That may figure into my handicapping next year! Ha!
2:03.34 does that.
That may be the new normal, but still fun.
arlington fan I cannot recall a closer finish, been years!
Thanks again Steve, was a terrific run for this website.
Let’s know what you have planned for the BC.
McPeek said they had better be loaded for bear, cuz Thorpedo Anna is a GRIZZLY!—– Then he wins The Derby with a horse that he had advised the breeder/owner who to breed to……that owner/breeder passed away last May 4th ….
Well I got that! Not the Tri but the win and the McPeek double….Steve you better see if you can get more bandwidth, for Coldfacts’s postings, about Fierceness!…
Omg how it could have been if Sierra Leone didn’t keep bumping into Forever Young!
Least horse I selected to prevail finished third. What about Fierceness?
I usually do my handicapping well before the race and also make my best ahead. But even with the little knowledge I have of a horse ready to perform well, Fierceness when on his way to the paddock and beyond did not look fit and ready to run. Some people with inside connections had mentioned that he did not look like himself even in his last work.
Good observation Gary!
Apparently Honor Marie had a brutal trip and really ran quite well
Yes.
On his 3rd birthday, too, lol
Poor boy – but he proved he’s tough colt. I’m proud of him
I’d point towards the Belmont, if he’s ok – 🤞🤞🤞🤞
Hopefully Belmont for him.
Congratulations to Mystic Dan, Tom Amoss and Brian Hernandez.
Japan has to be proud of Forever Young and T O Password.
Congrats as well to Sierra Leone.
It was the exciting race I thought it would be.
Hope all horses are OK.
I apologize. Kenny McPeek!
How good is Mystik Dan? or was it all the rain the last few days that helped him.
His number shot up when he won the prep in the slop.
If the Preakness is on a fast track, that may answer the question.
Congrats to the connections of Mystik Dan
We have a tie in the Keeler RTTKD contest.
SWEEEEETTTTT! Super and tri, future wager, Oaks Derby Double. It’s raining Benjamins. Calling All Loomis, Calling all Loomis
Yahoo for Mystik Dan !!!! Congrats for the Connections !!!!
Congrats to you, Downthestretch. As usual, I got 2/3rds of a trifecta — but didn’t bet on the winner.
Oops, beg your pardon El Kabong! You sure lived up to your handle. Congratulations!
Thanks. It was a thrilling race. I hope Fierceness is ok. Did not expect him to fold that way given his trip. Hope he is ok. I bow to my muse, Aaron Copland. His music and the coffee cleared my mind for a good mix of tickets. No better muse than his music. That Steve saw what I saw in the southwest was also very encouraging. He is so perceptive and helps me stay the course on horses I spot early and really love. Thanks Steve. MYSTIC DAN is for real.
I think that has to be the first time three horses finished so close together in the Derby. Noses and head bobs are one thing, but three together?
You did better than me, Congratulations.
I only had two.
Thank you Ms Blacktype…Sorry on your Tri !!! My win was for the soul… no money bet !!!
I rarely bet, but since there was money in my Twin Spires account, I blew it all. Let’s see if they really cough up $10 for Sierra Leone’s 2nd place finish.
They do…
GL E1, lets see if we can make it three in a row, plus the TC last year. Track condition is a bit of a worry.
Win: Fierceness
Place: Sierra Leone
Show: Resilience
Fourth and fifth places: Society Man/Dornoch/Just Steel
Worried about Forever Young, but I have him covered in my 2nd list posted earlier.
My bet is in. Good luck to all. 🙂
Final strategy is to key 2 horses most likely to finish first or second, in trifectas and exactas, using 11 horses total. Unfortunately, the keys this year are the two favorites Fierceness and Sierra Leone so I’ll probably lose money even if my bets hit lol.
11 horses I’m using…
1. Fierceness
2. SIerra Leone
3. Forever Young
4. Catching Freedom
5. Just a Touch
6. Honor Marie
7. Just Steel
8. Domestic Product
9. Resilience
10. Stronghold
11. T O Password
$220 Total
.50 Trifecta = $90
1,2
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
.50 Trifecta = $90
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
1,2
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
$1 Exacta Box = $40
1,2 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
With 52 minutes until post time, Forever Young is taking serious money and has been all day. 6-1 right now. Third choice behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone. There is so much money in the win pool already that it would take a lot of moolah to change the odds now.
May the fourth be with everyone today!
Just got a little vibe that little Mr T O Password might run a better race than I think.
I played what i said I’d play here, but i left out my trifecta bet as i never hit in in the derby, and already played more than i had intended. So, if it comes out. no one remind me what it was
I also added Sierra Leone with all. I still believe CF has a good chance at beating him, but he looks too good not to play him with all and if he comes out with a bomb, well then.
Little David Beating Goliath is a great romantic notion with a great storyline,, but as i said, he’s too good to ignore and i have CF with all too so that is that
I’m hoping the heaven’s open and Catching Freedom beheads SL. We shall see.
It’s been so much fun and really turned the awful start to my week around. Thank you all and to our astute host for putting up with my alter ego, Bozo the Clown.
Hoping everyone has a fun and successful derby. The latter i take back if you have what i don’t.
May the all cross the finish line safe and sound.
If you don’t hear from me again this night, I’m drowning my sorrows in a bottle of scotch.
But seriously, just have fun and you are already a winner!
I also really like FY on top, but I didn’t use him much there due to budget
Very happy for the many owners of Seize the Grey. I know they’re over the moon!
It was a nice ride. Torres took him back off the pace, then still had plenty of horse when they found the hole in the stretch.
The kid had Trikari at 47-1!
Sure, maybe Lukas will give him remainder of weekend off.
Steve,
Have got to give you KUDOS on this years coverage of the Derby. This had to be one of your most challenging ever with all the off tracks, trainers scratching of horses, weird workout patterns … Wowser such a mess !!! . Will not be betting today but will be rooting for JUST STEEL ( Lukas just won with Seize the Grey ) and MYSTIK DAN.
Good Luck to all with your choices and hope you have luck at the window !!!
Lynda sorry to hear about your mishap and hoping you have full recovery !!!
Thank you
Thanks vwet much.
Congrats to D. Wayne Lucas and connections for Seize The Day winning Pat Day Mile (by Arrogate) and to a racing friend Julie who has a share in this colt.
Bittersweet reminder of Arrogate’s potential as a sire had he lived.
After Mindframe won the 3rd race at Churchill today, Mike Repole was interviewed on TVG/FanDuel and made a comment that he has 75 3-year-olds. Wow! Can that be right. Maybe he exaggerated. Maybe not.
A few days ago, I asked how a guy could have the favorite in the Kentucky Derby two years in a row. I guess Repole’s comment answers my question. 75 3-year-olds would give him more chances than most. A great strategy if you can afford it.
Remember Stopchargingmaria? His wife ought to hit him with Stopbuyinghorsesmike. I’ve given him a great name for one of his next batch of horses.
Always hope every horse enjoys safe trips, however hope connections lose.
My second list in exact order(will place my main list later) aiming at tri, super and Hi-5:
Second list:
Fierceness
Stronghold/Forever Young
Stronghold/Forever Young/Just Steel
Sierra Leone/Dornoch
had to place Forever Young, else my list would have been very simple.
Steve, thank you so much for taking us on this marvelous journey over these past months. And thank you for this forum, especially appreciated by those who have lost people with whom they used to share Derby Day. It’s wonderful to share the day’s excitement with a group of dedicated fans from all over. Safe trips and good luck to all! Enjoy the day!
Lynda, I hope your knee feels better soon!
Thank you
Notable Speech wins 2000 Guineas.
City of Troy flubbed the start. Tried to make up distance to no avail. Just not himself today.
Congrats to winner.
Feel bad for Aiden and Ryan
Better luck next time City of Troy, hope you are OK.
Side note: Notable Speech’s dam goes back to Secretariat.
I hope your knee gets better … you will be more than ready for the summer Olympics…
Godolphin is prime to keep its winning ways today at Churchill and Aqueduct with its contingent led by Naval Power, Legend of Time, Nash and Otoman Fleet…
Thank you
Thank you Steve for sharing all your expertise & insights about the Derby & the horses here. I’ve followed you faithfully over the years.
First I pray for the safety of all the horses and the jockeys today – in the Derby & all the other races. I haven’t heard of any issues on the track like last year, so let’s not start now.
Good luck to you & everyone else who is betting today. I hope we all come out ahead!
Thank you Jul enjoy your day
With coffee and Copland to guide me, this is what I played
The Separator:
If Fierceness wins, I’ll need to separate from the herd.
$1 super 17 w 14,18 w 2,3,4,7,8,11 w 2,3,4,7,8,11,14,16,18
The Gordon Gekko
Fierceness has trouble and greed consumes.
$1 super 3,4 w 2,8,11 w 2,3,4,7,8,11,14,18 w 2,3,4,7,8,11,14,16,18
$1 tri 2,3,4,8,11 w 2,3,4,8,11,17 w2,3,4,6,7,8,11,14,16,17,18
Pending my success on the under card, this one is possible
The Old Toby
$1 dollar SUPER HIGH five
17 w 3,4, w 2,3,4,8,18 w 2,3,4,7,8,11,18 w 2,3,4,6,7,8,11,14,16,18,19
All in this year. It’s going to be a fun race. Good luck to everyone and a special thanks to our fearless leader for taking us to the Roses each year. See you all at the finish line.
I would say that it was a pretty good day of racing yesterday at Churchill even though that track was really wet. I hope that most of you came out ahead yesterday. I dropped about 17% of my bankroll. It happens. After a pretty good start, they turned the faucets off and I could only hit a few place bets toward the end. Hope for better today. A tough card though. I’ve decided to go crazy and bet Domestic Product. Looks horrible on paper. Bad numbers. 8 weeks off. Practical Joke as a sire does not scream “a mile and a quarter”. I must be crazy. But I have 3 futures that are alive and want to get on a 4th horse. 25-1 sounds good. I ask myself why Chad Brown would give the horse so much time. No apparent injury. I keep going back to that slow Tampa Bay Derby. The pace was slow, but they finished fast. Domestic Product looked to be all out to get to the wire first. I trust that Brown did the right thing giving the horse time and that he will have him ready to run his best today. If he’s not good enough, there are 13 other races to make a score. And those 3 future bets. Good luck. Possible rain on the 2nd half of today’s card.
The “other Chad Brown” horse did pretty well in a few races yesterday!
Recently on the fence between HM and FY. Going with FY for home run.
Happy Kentucky Derby Day everyone.
Cloudy this AM in Louisville, partly sunny after lunch. High will be 80.
24% chance of rain with thunderstorms between 3 and 6.
Would hay farmers gamble and cut hay today with this forecast, yes they would.
Wishing the very best of luck and safe racing for every horse and rider today.
Good .uck all with your bets and selections.
Thanks again to Steve and Secretariatdotcom and Leonard for this forum where we can meet and greet and share our thoughts with everyone in this International community.
May the racing gods and Lady Luck smile on every horse with safe trips back to the barn.
Me, I am somewhat restricted with a bum knee that gave out earlier this week causing a fall in my hay stall. Slowly getting better with compression wraps, R.I.CE., pain patches and aspirin. Basically doctoring on ,yself like I would on my horses, LOL. I will be watching the Derby with my adorable Secretariat Plushie.
Sorry to hear about your mishap. Hope you start feeling better and have a wonderful Derby Day. I just wish the weather forecast could give a more precise percntage of rain.
Thank you.
Just watched a video of City of Troy’s arrival at Newmarket. He looks fabulous.
Thank you
Ditto your wishes for a safe race !
So sorry to hear this, Lynda. Keep it elevated and enjoy the races!
Coffee’s on, Aaron Copland is playing………IT’S DERBY DAY! Good morning Steve, good morning children of the hay, our day has come. This is going to be a great race. It’s early out west but I want to soak up every hour of this day. Good luck to everyone with your wagers. One of us will have a winning play that is for sure.
Good morning EB.
Children of the hay…made me laugh!
Good luck to you today!
Good Luck Lynda, We are in for a real treat. Just hoping the weather behaves. See ya after the race. Somebody here is bound to have a big hit.
Wow his knowledge of this sport is blowing me away. Very interesting man. His love of horses comes thru big time. I enjoyed reading his article very much. Thank you🐎
If youre referring to me, thank you. Lol. I’m thinking you mean someone else because I’m not that interesting.
No one bests your knowledge of racing.
Before I change my mind (again), the following are my picks for the 150th Kentucky Derby:
Derby Dew’s Sweet Six:
11 – FOREVER YOUNG
2 – Sierra Leone
4 – Catching Freedom
7 – Honor Marie
17 – Fierceness
18 – Stronghold
Good luck, everyone! Safe trips to all.
I will be keying Forever Young in exactas and trifectas.
MAY 4/24 YOU ABOVE-HAVE TO MANY HORSES-RE. YOUR CHOICES.
HERE ARE MY SIX CONTENDERS, BELOW.
THESE 2-4-11-12-14-17….PICKS OF MINE- WINNER IS IN HERE- PLUS 2ND. HORSE ETC.
AT 3 MIN TO POST, OF THE ABOVE-TAKE THE 2 LONGEST ODDS HORSES OF THESE AS YOUR –WIN KEYS.
THEN TAKE THE TWO LOWEST ODDS REMAINING AS YOUR 2ND. AND 3RD. KEYS.
USE THE REMAINGING TWO HORSES AS YOUR 4TH KEYS, WITH ALL– FOR TRI.WHEEL ETC.
OR..IF ? YOU HAVE THE CASH AND GUTS! BOX THESE SIX HORSES FOR TRIS-ETC.
To Jimmy Fallon fans out there I report that his pupy’s race to predict the Kentucky Derby resulted in number 2 first (Sierra Leone), number 7 second (Honor Marie), number 3 third (Mystik Dan) and fourth was number 6 (Just Steel)… very playable combination indeed…
It has been a lot of fun around the Derby this week in the tonight show …
I don’t usually watch Jimmy Fallon, but I always try to catch his Derby Eve show to see the puppies and their predictions. The scary part was that Fierceness got left at the gate. The puppy was standing up on his back feet and almost didn’t choose to run.
Nelson, Kimmel’s puppy has a good chance to hit the super. You could do worse than play that combination.
Steve-
Thank you for the coverage of Kentucky Derby 150. Always insightful and includes so many important angles, especially pedigree analysis. Have to admit, there are a lot of distractions in L.A. Haven’t been able to follow the Derby Trail as closely as in years past.
Made six future wagers this Winter and Spring. Have two wagers that will make it to the Starting Gate. Resilience $20 at around 90-1. Epic Ride $25 at 105-1. With outside post positions, it will take a minor miracle for either to contend. Maybe it will be a strung out field and each can drop down without loosing too much ground. LOL. Anyway, both colts are up against it.
Good Luck and hope you cash in on your bets.
7.5 Furlongs
Thank you and its good seeing you again.
Interesting article on Paulick Report about the farrier patches on all four of the hooves
of Fierceness.
This morning, I wrote out the names of Derby field on a sheet of paper and gave it to my wife. I asked her to pick out four names that she liked. She picked Catching Freedom, Forever Young, Stronghold and Epic Ride, (4-11-18-21). I’ll box those four in a $1.00 superfecta bet. I’ve spent months researching this year’s Derby, and she spent about five minutes making her selections. If she hits, and I don’t, I’ll never hear the end of it.
I feel you on this, Bill. Every year I go to a Derby party to watch with relatives and friends. Most of the folks there are the tune-in-once-a-year-for-the-Derby type. They choose their horse during the post parade based on what names they like, what color the horse is, etc. Seems like half the time they do better than I, who have spent months studying the horses. Ah well.
For those interested, the ‘wonder colt’ City of Troy will run in the English 2,000 Guineas around 3:35 pm at Newmarket on May 4, which is 10:35 am EDT in the US on May 4 as well.
Lucky Newmarket will have a sunny, warmish day for the Guineas, around 63f. Coolmore are contemplating sending City of Troy to compete in the Travers Stakes should all things go well over the next few months so here is a preview of further attractions. Enjoy.
It’s amazing how much more you can see in a race when watching it at 0.5 playback speed (on YouTube). Specifically, what the jockey is doing with his hands, when and how much he is asking the horse. You can also zoom in on YouTube videos on your phone which is really cool (at least on an iPhone), so you can see what’s really going on in those far turns – bumps, checking up, tight holds, etc. Get closer to get the full picture, so to speak.
So I just watched Fierceness’s Florida derby in slo mo (half speed). He clearly ran the best derby prep of them all, going by splits and effort. And I see him sitting in the best position possible, just off Dornoch and Track Phantom, getting first run into the stretch. Any horse who typically runs 4+ lengths off the lead is going to have to find his way through like 14 horses here, as so many of them like to run within 2-3 lengths. Did I mention Fierceness is looking and training amazing? As much as I hate the favorite winning the derby, you have to accept what the race is giving you. And imo, everything says Fierceness is going to be so hard to beat here.
My brother used to play the races one speed faster, and you could really see which horses had the best moves…
Ok, i know everyone anxiously awaiting my bets, so my turn.
I know i gave some already, but if i want to eat this month, i need to try and cut back.
My $1.00 exacta
Fierceness with all
Hoping he comes in with a big long shot. 19.00 bet
Catching Freedom with all
If F calls it quits, I believe little David can take Goliath. At the least, it will pay better. 19.00 bet
Catching Freedom and Epic Ride, future wager. 2.00 bet
Going to play my bozo the clown bet given earlier, because always some wiseguy looking to make fool of us all. 18.0p bet.
Going to put 5.00 to win on Endlessly, and 2.00 to win on the two biggest longshots to win my money back if they come in.
I may change my tri bet also given earlier. Going to review preps one final time tonight with a bottle of scotch so I don’t lose my mind, and will give those if i change my tri.
There are too many underneath that i like, but I can’t hit the all button twice on a tri because I don’t have the budget, and may still lose more than i win.
My all Place bet on exactas has worked out ok in the past- Orb and Golden Soul my biggest pay-out, Chrome and Commanding Curve not too shabby), but I won’t look like a brilliant handicapper if i win. I just want to have fun and cash in.
Should have added that Goliath being SL, if F throws in the towel.
Catching Freedom is not afraid or a pushover, and he can run, but I won’t be surprised if SL beats him because he does look impressive, just hoping not and believe that hope is not in vain.
I am trying not to over think this year. It looks like Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Forever Young. I believe Forever Young is going to improve big time. His traveling “Companion” ran well today.
Just A Touch might not want 1 1/4 but he is improving.
I believe Stronghold’s figs and sheets are lower than he should have gotten. He has beat a number of horses in the field and should be live for the exotics.
Thank you for mentioning Endlessly. I have bet him every race but was going to dismiss him as even his trainer feels he is a grass horse. I will now move him back in for a few plays.
As always, it has been a pleasure reading your articles and look forward to them all.
I hope to see you on Labor Day weekend as I have for the last 28 years.
Good Luck tomorrow.
P.S. have you heard anything about Nysos, ( the month has been up) and or Maymun?
I am posting this final analysis again and one more time tomorrow after seeing how the betting is going.
As much as I hate picking favorites, in the end this Derby i believe goes through Fierceness with Sierra Leone right there. I just think they stand out. And I am looking for big improvement from Just a Touch, whose Thoro-Graph numbers suggest a break-out race. And right with him is Forever Young, who could do anything, including win, without it being a surprise. But ponder this…take the last two Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. In their six combined Triple Crown victories neither of them ran a faster Beyer figure than Fierceness did…as a 2 year old. And his Florida Derby win was 5 points faster than any of their Triple Crown wins. If Fierceness runs his race he just is so much faster than these horses and it wouldn’t surprise me if he won by open lengths. And if Sierra Leone has a good trip no reason he shouldnt run his race. But its the Derby and running your race is not often easy.
After those two and Just a Touch and Forever Young, for price horses who can possibly win and worth a win bet, no one likes Mystik Dan but I know what he is capable of, and Honor Marie is coming into the race as good as you could want and he is ready to peak. As I have mentioned Domestic Product’s maiden win still lingers and draws me to him. If you’re looking to go deeper into the exotics you can add Stronghold and Resilience.
Bombs away possibles are Epic Ride (Very live at 63-1 even with the outside post), Society Man (can back end the exotics at 73-1) and if the track is off Endlessly, who is a very talened horse. We just dont know about the dirt, but as a grass and synthetic horse the slop will help move him up.
If the track is sloppy you’re on your own. Good luck however it plays out.
Steve, I want you to know how much I have enjoyed your Derby columns and the comments from the group here for the past several months. I feel that I know the horses so much better than I would without the wisdom and insight that I find on this forum. My thanks to you and to everyone who commented. I’m very anxious for the Derby, but I’m sorry to see all the discussions end. It’s been fun.
I haven’t commented as much as I might have because I haven’t had a lot to say. I’ve loved Fierceness ever since his first race, and nothing has changed since then. I chose to stick with him through his ups and downs. I believe we will see the good Fierceness tomorrow and if we do, he’ll win big. If, heaven forbid, we get the bad Fierceness, I will still believe in his ability because I know he has it. But if that should happen, anybody might win, and I would look for a longshot–Stronghold, who doesn’t like to lose; Domestic Product; Endlessly: or T O Password. But hopefully the good Fierceness will show them the way home and the closers won’t know where to find him.
Happy Derby Day to everyone!
Thank you Jiffy it was great having you along for the ride.
Over the moon for Thorpedo Anna, all the connections.
A forty thoudand dollar baby is now a million dollar baby.
I’m sitting on three big Oaks–Derby Doubles to Mystik Dan, Honor Marie and Fierceness, I wish I had also included Sierra Leone, Thorpedo has a very slight left paddle, and ‘Leone has a prominent left paddle! Thorpedo is a good filly that cost a whopping $40K…..C’MON McPeek!
Matthew, Great call on Thorpedo Anna!! You pointed her out at least a couple times over the last week. Good luck on your doubles!! I also have her to Mystik Dan and Honor Marie.
Congrats Matthew!
Someone absolutely hammered the Oaks exacta. Came in at least $10 light. Ken Mcpeek said he was bringing a monster. Sorry I didn’t listen.
Congratulations to Thorpedo Anna, who most definitely ate every horse in the race like she WAS a grizzly bear. Good thing I started watching my taped recording of FS1 to realize I wasn’t getting the stakes races from Churchill. Didn’t know it was all on Peacock (even though I have Peacock). Came in at just the right time. An aside: some folks look great in pink; others not so much. I loved the combination of ORANGE and pink I saw on one woman preening in the paddock. That paddock is a happening I’d like to enjoy sometime. On to the Derby. I have almost $50 bucks left to squander.
Question: Do betting apps let you take some of the $$$ out if you win? LOL.
You can take out any funds over your initial deposits. If you deposited 20 and won 200, you would have withdrawal access to 180 of those winnings. The remainder has to remain until those deposited funds clear, usually 3-5 business days.
Whoo-hoo! My Oaks picks ran 1-2!
Congratultaions Arlingtonfan!
Thank you, Ms B!
Congratulations arlington fan!
Thank you, Lynda!
Congrats arlingtonfan!
Thank you, Sherlock!
Honor Marie seems to be the “now” horse, at least in early betting — from ML 20-1 to currently 12-1. West Saratoga was 50-1 in the ML and is now 28-1. That has to be sentimental betting.
Winston, any chance of sunshine for the Kentucky Derby? I actually watched the Belmont card instead today.
It’s looking pretty good. I’m headed out to dinner now. When I return, I expect to see a forecast of sunny skies and very little chance of precipitation.
Bon appetite, Winston. I certainly hope you are right. Watching the Kentucky Derby card in the same slop conditions as today would be like watching a ballet troupe ‘mud wrestle’ to “Swan Lake.” Hideously ugly with an absurd sense of amusement.
Oaks derby double
2,4,5,12,15 oaks
3,4,8,11,17 derby
Safe trips all
Kabong, you are live for the Derby.
Yes but not for much. It will offset the supers which failed if I can get Mystik Dan or Cathching Freedom across the wire. I was thrilled anyway for TP and Kenny. That was an awesome win and great ride for Hernandez.
3 118
4 124
8 69
11 58
17 16
My top 5 horses (not very original, I know) are Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, Catching Freedom, Just a Touch, and Fierceness. Sierra Leone is my top pick, but like many others, I think if Fierceness runs his A race he wins easy. It’s just a question of if he will. I feel like he either wins for fun or doesn’t finish top 3. With that in mind, and a very limited wagering budget ($20 total), my bets will be:
$10 win Sierra Leone
$0.50 trifecta Fierceness/SL, CF, HM, JAT/SL,CF,HM,JAT for a total of $6.
$16 total wagered on the Derby, with $4 left to have fun with the Preakness in a couple weeks if I lose it all tomorrow, which I usually do, LOL.
Happy Oaks Day, y’all!
Got my kiddo, and we have the races going. (Didn’t get her early this year – last year, I pulled her early to watch Caravel!)
We hate the track today, but we have our picks for you – for today and tomorrow.
For the Oaks, I like:
Just FYI – we will find out if she likes the mud, like her Pop
Our Pretty Woman
Thorpedo Anna
Gin Gin
Power Squeeze – just looked too good training to leave out!
For the Derby:
Forever Young
Resilience
Just Steel – this is my Justify, despite most of the rest of y’all being on Just A Touch.
Society Man
Stronghold
On Fierceness – if he can take off at the top of the stretch like Chrome or Barbaro, he will make me a believer. For now, I just don’t have the confidence in him that I had in Derby favorites that I backed who won. Make sense? But I like him! He seems easy to live with, although on APharoah12’s footage, he got bitey when Repole showed up and provoked him. Some people are a lot.
My daughter wants y’all to know that she just likes Gin Gin and Dornoch. She picked Impel in the Eight Belles, and she ran 2nd, so I won’t knock her picks!
Good luck with Power Squeeze, Katy — I bet her too after a quick glance at the PPs. Her name stood out to me, and she, like two others in the race, has some mud form. Bet a single to win, and with Fiona’s Magic in a boxed exacta. Threw in a 3-way boxed exacta and added Just FYI. Since it was found money (I had $60 leftover in my betting account from last year) why not?
Same to you! Found money is the best! Hope you replenish that account today and tomorrow! Good wagers.
I can empathize with Fierceness. Some people just like to jerk your chain. I have to admit, I like that he has his own mind. I hope they don’t take that away from him. Something tells me he won’t stand for it.
Out of the mouth of babes. Hope you both do well.
Everyone thought I was nuts when I picked Strike the Gold as a youngster, so she has my respect. I do wish that she would stop trying to tickle me, because I hate that… and I am about to look like Fierceness if she keeps it up. To be fair, she gets this pre-race excited obnoxiousness from me. Derek Manthey, I need to get into the man cave! Please?
I’m shooting for the Mott double: Just FYI-Resilience. Good luck.
I would LOVE that. Like I say, that Mott KoolAid is good stuff. And Junior is my current hero – so many good rides, including recently on Senor Buscador, when I terrified my family with my cheering. That day, THEY wanted the safety of the Cave!
Bet is down for the Oaks two supers staring Thorpedo Anna and an ensemble cast of runners.
5 w 8 12 14 w 2 8 11-15 w 2 2 8 10-15
also
12 14 w 5 w 2 8 12-15 w 2 3 8 10-15
Run Anna Run.
Just came from the grocery store and happened to glance at the New York Times on the rack. Racing and its woes is the cover story. The Times really has it in for racing. I take comfort that it didn’t work for the NY Tribune in the 1890s either.
Ms. B, did you find inaccuracies in the story or were you simply upset by the reporting of problems in horse racing. At the NYT website, I see a story headlined “Horse racing’s loudest critic is favored in its biggest race.” There’s also what appears to be a nice feature on West Saratoga and trainer Larry Demeritte. I’ll read both later tonight.
Seizure of cobra, snake and spider venom and other PEDs by Ohio Customs and Border Patrol a couple of days ago that originated in Mexico and thought to be headed to Louisville is not helping horse racing improve its image.
Forever Young was full of kickapoo joy juice this morning.
He was leaping into his gallop, doing side passes and skipping over that muddy track.
Honor Marie did really good in the paddock training.
So glad to hear both these pieces of news! Thanks, Lynda!
Kickapoo joy juice, Lynda? That sounds like something that would go good with my bacon and eggs this morning. Ha, ha!
The good vibes keep coming. You go, Forever Young.
An off track seems likely for the Derby, which gives the advantage to Sierra Leone, IMO.
However, regardless of the track condition, Fierceness remains the horse to beat.
I’ve been on the Resilience bandwagon from the get-go and see no reason to jump off at this point. That said, I’ll key Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Resilience on top in the first three slots, with ALL underneath in the 4th slot, in a $1.00 superfecta p/w wager.
In addition, I’ll flip that wager over and key ALL on top, with Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Resilience in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 2,17,19/ 2,17,19/ 2,17,19/ ALL. Cost: $102.00
ALL/ 2,17,19/ 2,17,19/ 2,17,19. Cost: $102.00
Good luck to all my fellow regular contributors, and to Steve Haskin who has provided invaluable contributions to all of us.
Safe trips to all.
T O Saint Denis scared many bettors with his amazing frontrunning effort in the Alysheba… odds-on favorite First Mission had to work hard to beat him the last furlong.
Is that a preamble of what his stable mate T O Password can do in the Derby?
We shall see.
T O Saint Denis proved the high quality of the Japanese handicap divisioin… but the ranks of the Japanese 3-year-old crop remains to be proved tomorrow.
TO Password has speed. I think he is going to shoot out with Track Phantom, Dornoch, and Fierceness.
Sets up well for stalkers and closers.
I’m expecting a fast pace.
I think that 45 3/5 or 45 4/5 would help the closers and mid-packers. Anything faster would undoubtedly help the closers.
Hi Nelson!
T O St Denis made an excellent accounting for himself.
Noble Mission was my selection to win.
The Japanese breeding program is for speed in the first 3 furlongs and last 3 furlongs and for stamina.
The trainers share information between themselves after every race in America.
They are determined to break the Kentucky Derby nut.
Mr Yahagi said the dirt tracks in the United States are the hardest dirt surfaces in the world.
May not be this year that FY or TOP win the Derby but that day is coming!
I have the greatest admiration for their breeding/racing program, the Japanese people and their culture!
Hi Lynda!
I agree with your outlook of Japanese racing and the Kentucky Derby.
My post about my Derby selections and related comments is waiting for moderation. I reckon Forevery Young is the best Japanese in the Derby so far. Apparently he has to overcome his alleged dislike of kick backs and fully recover from the long travels; but the way he flies in the home stretch will be enough to warrant him to be in the superfecta.
You might need to ask Steve to ask Leonard to release it.
Nelson, did you look at Saint Denis’s PPs? If a horse with that record can finish second in a U.S. grade 2 race, I may have to eat my hat tomorrow if Password does the same in the Derby.
Saint Denis’ has been T O Password’s workmate this past week. TOP left him in the dust in one of the training sessions.
Hi Bill… I have posted a comment below with my selections but the post is awaiting moderation…
Perhaps 874 words are above the maximum allowed in the commenting boxes… I am waiting for Leonard to approve it otherwise I repost shorter segments …
Thanks for the reply, Nelson. We’ve missed your input.
I’ll be looking forward to your selections.
Good luck.
Only a 40% chance for rain tomorrow. I wouldn’t say an off track is likely, but possible.
We have reached the end of a 4-month journey together following Steve’s kind acumen. Writting assessments for as many as 46 horses and for an average of 30 weekly while keeping it very informative and entertaining is a herculean task indeed.
Also, Leonard Lusky and the contributors of Secretariat blog are to be commended for fostering an open, friendly and respectful cyber envrionment… it is an example to other venues.
Steve and his followers here have gathered everything to know about every relevant 3-year-old with the collective purpose of divining the outcome of the 2024 Kentucky Derby and of having better idea of how the 2024 Triple Crown Series would unfold.
When we deal with a historic race like the Derby it is natural (at least in my mind) to draw parallels to previous editions.
For instance, Fierceness could be winning the Derby the same fashion Always Dreaming did in 2017 and he might even be displaying the potential of Smarty Jones or War Emblem going forward.
However, as the axiom goes, a “bettable” horse is also a beatable one, especially in a convoluted race like the Kentucky Derby. So, other contenders also have comparable running styles and winning ways of past Derby winners.
To name a few, I can easily picture Sierra Leone replicating Orb’s sweeping 5-wide move to win the 2013 Derby.
I also fancy Stronghold doing the same thing I’ll Have Another did to defeat a super fast Bodemeister back in 2012.
If Catching Freedom is to win he will be doing it a la Animal Kingdom style. Also, at the back of my mind a somehow equate Resilience with Super Saver… You, of course, have your own views of how your favorite horse needs to run to win the Roses…
If you ask me how the race would unfold I say it will likely resemble the 2019 edition with roughly the same group of front, middle and back runners.
For my bets I will be exploiting the unknowns and dispelling some opinions I have heard from several analysts and handicappers.
The first notion I would dispute is that Fierceness cannot overcome adversity… not few people are betting on the champion being so fazed that he won’t even finish 2nd or 3rd but off the board completely.
I dare to say that the Derby field won’t be able to overcome the adversity of Fierceness’ talent.
Anothe opinion I have heard is that post position one (1) is bad for Dornoch. I believe that, given his lead-to-win running style along with having three deep closer to his rigth side, cruising by the rail helps his chances. Mage’s full brother will be running close to 6600 feet (equivalent to the 10 furlongs) whereas all the others will be traveling anywhere from 6660 to 6120 feet. If you also regard Dornoch as a fighter rather than a quitter then he stands a chance to spice up the exotics. Assuming Fierceness will take off in the stretch then the speedsters Dornoch has to beat for show from the get go are Just a Touch, Track Phantom and Epic Ride… quite feasible.
Talking about the possible pace, the inscrutable Japenese T O Password is fast but if you review his two wins you will note that he tends to break a step slower. This flaw will spoil his ability to even lead the pack early. Many commenters have stated that T O Password simply does not belong but the son of Copano Rickey has neverteless earned his Derby spot among his local peers.
On the other hand, Forever Young seems to be the best Japanese runner in Derby so far. We have already discussed abundantly about the top-quality of Forever Young but I just wanted to point out that in the 1900 meters of the UAE Derby Forever Young ran the last 3 furlongs in 36 seconds and his projected time for the 2000 meters was similar to that of Senor Buscador in the Dubai World Cup. Sierra Leone’s cousin has a whole country and many American fans rooting for him thanks.
The perception of Endlessly not being able to handle the dirt makes him a compelling bombshell.
I believe Endlessly will be liking the dirt just fine specially if you note that the chief earner of his sire Oscar Performance is a Stakes winner on dirt named Red Carpet Ready. The other Oscar Performance’s top progeny includes very good dirt runners like Tumbarumba, Deer District and Oscar Eclipse. Also, Endlessly’s damsire (Langfuhr) was a three-time Grade 1 winner on dirt and mainly a dirt sire as well (remember Lawyer Ron and Wando).
Anyway, following the lead of many of you who have already registered their bets I am planning to key Fierceness for 1st, 2nd and 3rd with seven others I like.
17-Fierceness/
1-Dornoch/2-Sierra Leone/4-Catching Freedom/11-Forever Young/14-Endlessly/18-Stronghold/19-Resilience
Also, it would be a good idea to prepare hedges including somewhere longshots like: Mystik Dan, Just Steel, Track Phantom, Domestic Product and Honor Marie.
My sincere thanks again to Lynda King, Greg (Fan of Damascus) and Bill Dawson for encouraging and welcoming my participation in this outstanding blog. Also, thanks to all for sharing your thoughts, opinions and comments in a proffesional and upright manner.
Happy Derbies to all !
Good luck and safe runs to every one… and may God keep the love of horses burning in our hearts.
Congratulations Idiomatic!!!
Final pick is Forever Young. Torn between him and Honor Marie. I will key these two horses.
My reasons for Forever Young over Fierceness and Sierra Leone are FY has a high cruising speed and I believe he has the best closing kick coming for home. He’s fit and been looking happy. He has a big ol gas tank that is full.
Honor Marie is prime for his best run of 2024. It’s his home turf and he looks full of energy and ready to go.
Good luck everyone!!
After further evaluations and film study….my top 6 selections in no particular order are. Fierceness, Catching Freedom, Resilience, Just a Touch, Stronghold, and Sierra Leone.
When I saw the horses at the gate, for the first race today I noticed that the hooves were not sinking down one millimeter, they have rolled down the cushion, to keep water out of the surface……in race three there was a pace duel, at a one turn mile ….:44 3/5…..the dueling duo finished five lengths clear…..whenever I see Quarter Horses racing on a rolled surface I always write down the names, and make certain to not bet them next time, because sprinters need cushion! Mehopes every beautiful horse comes home safe and well today ….
Bad on CDI. Did they learn nothing from Saratoga last summer?
Arthur’s Ride had a big race over the Gulfstream track just like Fierceness.
Maybe it was the sloppy track that got Arthur beat. Maybe.
That’s a classy touch, Churchill selling ad space on the saddle cloths.
I’ve noticed it’s the overlooked horse that often jumps up and grabs the roses when there’s an upset. Or maybe that’s MY overlooked horse. This year it’s TRACK PHANTOM. Sure, he looks like he’s distance-limited, but if he has a good trip and is expertly ridden, he might survive for fourth in the Superfecta. Gotta do at least one with him, although I think there’s less than $100 in my bank account and my paycheck has not posted. I suppose TwinSpires takes credit cards.
Who knew? There’s $61 in there, good enough for two boxed supers and some exactas.
lol good luck!
Toss
For every Derby, I figure which horse is the most likely winner and which horse gets bet. I’m correct a fair number of times for the former and incorrect almost always for the latter.
This year, I think that Catching Freedom is the most likely winner. Based on early betting, he’ll be around 8-1. As I have him at 26-1 in the KDFW (and Stronghold at 48-1), I don’t need to bet CF tomorrow. So if the track is fast, I will likely bet Resilience to win/place. He is currently at a crazy 26-1.
Regarding the favorite Fierceness: I have studied all derbies since 2000 in relation to the bounce effect following a big improvement in the final prep. I looked at figures from Equibase, Brisnet, Beyer, and T-G. I established a line for each at which a horse would be unlikely to win the Derby. There was one outlier for all four figures that was not considered. Always Dreaming’s numbers far exceeded the next highest improvement for all four.
Fierceness easily falls outside the parameters of all Derby winners but Always Dreaming since 2000 – for Equibase, Brisnet, Beyer, and T-G. I would provide the results here but cannot paste due to the malfunctioning of the comment box. As it is, editing here is a chore.
Bottom line is that Fierceness is a bounce candidate like no other runner in tomorrow’s race.
Well I’m on the Mystik Dan bandwagon. ..I think Fierceness lays over this field, am placing two wps wagers on Mystik Dan and Honor Marie but Fierceness on top of exotics ..
I’m right with you
Weather Channel now has hourly forecast up for Saturday.
30 to 43% chance of rain from 4 PM to 7 PM.
Does not show thunderstorms or heavy rain.
Louisville always seems to wash out on Derby Day…it’s a slop fest today
I saw that. Rain should clear this afternoon for the Oaks.
Track dry’s fast. If it doesn’t rain much after midnight track should be ok.
My 36-1 bomb in the Oaks is Into Champagne. Loved her work and she is always a dangerous pace factor.
I like Power Squeeze and think she might be the best one of this crop when it is said and done. I like a bomb for the tri…..9-10-12
I’m all out on Lemon Muffin cause I love me them muffins.
Serious strategy being applied here.
Almost skipped oaks as did no studying on it, but sometimes my plan B strategy works better than my first.
Actually I have 14/13/the muffin, the leggy torpedo, and forgot who else.
I don’t expect to hit it. Just need something to root for.
I like Champagne too, but only have a beer budget that I must save for all that derby studying I did.
Hopefully I don’t land an F grade again, unless that F is Fierceness.
Steve, as we enter the “Derby Zone” where time is measured in 1/5’s of a second and space is measured in furlongs. I have question. How do you watch the DERBY. I’ve found for myself if I’m not on the Grandstand 3rd floor I have to enter the ” Cone of Silence” , the “Fortress of Solitude” and basically my man cave. I lock the doors, cut the phone line, turn off the cell phone, close the blinds and turn off the lights. No distractions. Pour a Glenlivet light a good cigar and tear up during my “Old Kentucky Home”. ( it’s has been diminished without the singing). As they walk onto the track and post parade excitement and anticipation is at its pinnacle of DERBY FEVER. Win Lose or Draw its a great moment in time! A win your on top of the world. A loss and it’s on to the Preakness( instant resurrection). Even with a loss there’s an old adage “We might be losers but we’re not quitters. To paraphrase William Powell in Mr. Roberts, Thanks Steve, Thanks for everything! Happy Derby
No one to talk to during and after the race? Gotta get your emotons out, good or bad, dont you? After almost 30 years being there and covering the race I like it just me and my wife. We have been going out to dinner afterwards where I can unwind, get a nice pasta dinner. and usually complain I have no story before eventually discovering I do have a story. But my wife doesnt like eating that late so we’ll just stay home and I can start thinking about a story.
Mr Haskin, never been fan of cold weather but after holidays are over and Jan. rolls around, always without fail look forward to your Derby Dozen. Thanks for your hard work!
Thank you Mike!
I usually go out to the local watering hole to see some friends and then bring home Chinese food for everybody!
As much as I hate picking favorites, in the end this Derby i believe goes through Fierceness with Sierra Leone right there. I just think they stand out. And I am looking for big improvement from Just a Touch, whose Thoro-Graph numbers suggest a break-out race. And right with him is Forever Young, who could do anything, including win, without it being a surprise. But ponder this…take the last two Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. In their six combined Triple Crown victories neither of them ran a faster Beyer figure than Fierceness did…as a 2 year old. And his Florida Derby win was 5 points faster than any of their Triple Crown wins. If Fierceness runs his race he just is so much faster than these horses and it wouldn’t surprise me if he won by open lengths. And if Sierra Leone has a good trip no reason he shouldnt run his race. But its the Derby and running your race is not often easy.
After those two and Just a Touch and Forever Young, for price horses who can possibly win and worth a win bet, no one likes Mystik Dan but I know what he is capable of, and Honor Marie is coming into the race as good as you could want and he is ready to peak. As I have mentioned Domestic Product’s maiden win still lingers and draws me to him. If you’re looking to go deeper into the exotics you can add Stronghold and Resilience.
Bombs away possibles are Epic Ride (Very live at 63-1 even with the outside post), Society Man (can back end the exotics at 73-1) and if the track is off Endlessly, who is a very talened horse. We just dont know about the dirt.
If the track is sloppy you’re on your own. Good luck however it plays out,
What about Forever Young?
I saw a graphic on Twitter this morning that he ran the fastest mph in the UAE Derby as compared to Mage last year, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie and a couple more.
Sierra Leone was 2nd.
Or does the mph not really mean anything?
Duh. After getting the cobwebs out of my eyes I added him withh Just a Touch. Read it now
LOL. Thank you sir.
I added a little more up top
Epic Ride:
The subject colt is one of 3 likely starters that I intend to place a decent win bet on.
His wide draw will ensure he end up in mid pack. If his rider can effectively cover up hi, up and produce him as late as possible. He can upset this field.
I really like this horse perhaps to pick up a piece of it.
Mr. Haskin,
Most if not all your supporters, are aware that the Right Click option has been disabled. I assume this decision was only taken after careful considerations of its likely negative effects.
It is also reasonable to assume that you were not party to a decision that represents a disservice to your supporters. Consequently, this action should be the subject of what should result in a successful challenge.
If you were party, to the decision. You are obliged to advise your loyal supporters of the rationale for same. If the decision was to target either one or a few of your supporters, then all should suffer as a result.
This post is not intended to either offend or influence a default to anger. If your blog is unique for the disablement of an extremely useful option/feature to those making submission. This would make your blog unique for a reason that runs contrary to what Information Technology affords i.e., working smarter not harder and process efficiency.
This was a bad decision and one that serves no discernable purpose. Your intervention its reversal will be appreciated by all.
I saw that yesterday and mentioned it. I believe it should be fixed.
Thanks Steve.
I usually compose my posts in Samsung Notes then copy and paste on the forum comments section.
LOL, thought it was to keep people like me who get really long winded.
My 3×10 Derby Play
My handicapping is based solely on my video analysis of each horse’s final prep race.
Can win…
1. Fierceness
2. Sierra Leone
3. Resilience
Could finish top 3…
4. Catching Freedom
5. Just Steel
6. Honor Marie
7. Just A Touch
8. Forever Young
9. Domestic Product
10. Stronghold
Unlikely to finish top 3…
Dornoch
Mystik Dan
Catalytic
T O Password
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Endlessly
Grand Mo The First
Society Man
Epic Ride
$.50 Trifecta = $108
123
12345678910
12345678910
$.50 Trifecta = $24
123
123
12345678910
$.50 Trifecta = $24
123
12345678910
123
$2 Exacta = $54
123
12345678910
$3 Exacta = $18
123
123
Total = $228
One last thanks to Steve for making this derby run so fun. And good luck to everyone with their bets!
Is there any merit in using KD trends in the decision-making process?
A race with the history of the Kentucky Derby cannot and shouldn’t be restricted to Speed figures and TG Number trending in a particular direction. Sometimes it is unwise ignore existing trends.
What’s the prevailing trend regarding post time favorites over last 5 yeas?
2019 – Improbable (1/1) Bob Baffert; finished 5th with an incident fee trip.
2020- Tiz The law (1/5) Barclay Tagg; finished 2nd with an indent free trip.
2021 – Essential Quality (3/2) Brad Cox; finished 4th with a troubled/wide trip.
2022 – Epicenter (1/1) Steve Amussen; finished 2nd with an incident free trip.
2023 – Angel Of Empire (1/1) Brad Cox; finished 3rd with an incident free trip.
It is anticipated that either Fierceness or Sierra Leone will emerge as the post time favorite.
There can be no dispute that the 5 defeated favorite above, possessed significantly better resumes than Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
Essential Quality like Fierceness was a BCJ winner and Champion 2YO. He entered the KD undefeated in 5 starts that included two KD preps as a 3YO.
Tiz The Law with his ultra impressive resume was probably the shortest post time favorite in the modern era. His 2:00.95 winning time for the Travers was good enough to win 20 of the last 22 renewals of the KD.
Epicenter was literally untouchable after his narrow defeated in the Lecomte. He entered the KD after establishing a NTR in the 9.5F LA Derby. His winning time of 1:54.38 was good enough to win 13 of the last 16 renewal of the Preakness.
Improbable was from the Powerhouse Barn of Bob Baffert, He entered the KD with 2 close defeats in 5 starts, with his last being to Omahabeach the ML favorite for the 2019 KD.
Given the defeat of the mega post time KD favorites above. Four of whom hailed, from top 5 barns and who possessed better resumes than Fierceness & Sierra Leone. Does the TP and Chad Brown trained colts deserve the overwhelming favoritism bestowed on them by the experts?
I am not an expert. But if the likes of Essential Quality, Tiz The law and Epicenter were defeated. There should be a significant amount of caution regarding likely post time favorite in the 2024 KD.
It is a horse race with several variables coming into play, some of which are out of horse and jockey’s control.
That is part of handicapping, trying to decipher who has the best shot.
I think they got it right. Fierceness appears to be the fastest by a wide margin, but as of yet, not consistent. Most don’t fully trust him yet and with good reason, but he’s too fast to ignore when he’s on his A game.
SL looks a couple steps below him, but a step above the rest, and he’s more consistent than F. You know what you are getting with him.
But they can both flop.There’s no sure thing in horse racing, that is why we handicap and throw our Bozo bets. If there was a sure thing,, horse racing would be out of business.
I really like Catching Freedom. From last to first, having to go so wide turning for home, then having to deal with another horse in his personal space and making contact more than once, and he just kept going, unfazed by it all.
Sure their were faster times from other horses, but when it comes to closers, i don’t pay too much attention to that. I look at those final quarters.
He may not be as fast as Fierceness when F is on his A-game, He may not be as imposing as SL (looks on the smaller side), but he can close fast.
David and Goliath, and we know how that turned out, David was the only one not afraid of Goliath and beheaded him.
Go Catching Freedom!
Would love to see him run further up next time around.
Did you know that there were no winning post-time Derby favorites from 1979 to 2000? Or that favorites won every Derby from 2013 through 2018? Did you know that favorites have won 10 of the past 24 (23 if we don’t count the 9/2020 race) derbies?
You have me wondering about the nature of the parenthetical numbers after the names of the last 5 favorites. I don’t know why I wonder.
I don’t think anybody has said this yet and I’m little shocked but here goes ” HAPPY DERBY” From Derby Derek!
“Happy Derby” to you Derby Derek from Derby Dew. Hope you cash big time, cousin.
Tomorrow’s Kentucky Oaks will be a wet one and my triple threat to win the prize are:
FYI
Thorpedo Anna
Ways and Means
Safe trips for all.
Nice, Dewey!
Thanks, Katy. I had the exacta but, I waited too long and just got shut out when I tried to play these three in an Oaks/Derby double. When will I ever learn?
Steve, as we are less than 48 hours away from the 150th Kentucky Derby, I’d like to add my voice to that of my fellow commentators in expressing my gratitude to you for your extraordinary columns on this year’s Derby Trail. Your words have been like stars in the sky giving us guidance as we struggle to find our way to the horses who will give us their best in this year’s Derby. Not only do you supply us with a wealth of data to build a case for the contenders, but you do it with such a rich writing style, which makes reading you a pure joy. You’ve been a big part of my day for the last four months and I sincerely thank you for sharing what’s on your mind. You’re the best, Steve.
Wow thank you so much Dewey. That is so kind of you. And I also want to thank you and our other regulars for being such an integral part of it. I dont consider the comments section just comments but an extension of the column providing additional information and opinions that make the Derby Rankings richer and fuller.
Yes, Steve, you have attracted a diverse group of fans who contribute to the high quality of this site. I’ve learned a lot from you and the knowledgeable group that post here. They’re a great bunch and are like an extended family which I enjoy being a part of. Thank y’all so much.
All thanks to you, Steve. I don’t post as much as I’d like or have in the past, new baby in hand now, but the nostalgia you bring along with the great detail, I’ve been a huge fan for over 20-25 years. Just wanted to say thank you.
Adding my thanks and gratitude to Steve. All that I follow in horse racing now is the Derby, and I might not be following it were it not for Steve’s blog and the open forum.
The last 4 months have certainly flown by!
Thank you Steve for the devotion and love you have for this sport and these horses. You always find postives for each one. No one does this better than you!
Reading your posts and the comments from everyone who participates is often the highlight of my day. It sometimes reminds me of my childhood when I tagged along with my Dad to the little country stores. Whether it was sitting around the woodstove on nail kegs or straight back chairs in the winter or on the porch during hot, hazy days of summer with barely a cooling breeze, the conversations that ranged from the price of cattle to the weather to politics, they are all etched in my memory.
Stuck like glue to Fierceness, Forever Young, Resiliance, Honor Marie, Sierra Leone and West Saratoga.
No changes to my Oaks picks…Tarifa, Thorpedo Anna and Leslie Rose though I must confess Pretty Woman is gorgeous!
Have to give a shout out to all the trainers, grooms, exercise riders, hot walkers etc. Every colt and filly I have seen the past two weeks for the most part look so good and not really seen a bad work or gallop by any other than a couple of glitchy things like Sierra Leone (mentioned in an earlier comment) and Leslie Rose who acted up a bit during paddock training and T O Password being a bit fractious and shying at things.
Winston did you send the thunderboomies that Louisville was supposed get to me? Our forecast for Friday and Saturday has rain and thunderstorms. UGH!
Hoping for a great Oaks, Derby and undercard races and that all horses and riders have safe trios back to the barn.
Good luck everyone with your bets and selections.
Lynda, I did NOT send you bad weather. But if it’s between your neck of the woods and Louisville, well, have your galoshes ready.
Thank you so much Lynda. You’e very kind. And thank you for sharing your memories with your usual eloquence.
Whew – false alarm on Honor Marie!!
Great News!!!
Except …there is still smoke about HM because the vets don’t like horses who look like they walk funny
I hate that this is an issue. HM has never had an issue since his career began – this is just who he is
I’m so worried
Too bad paste function no longer works, but HM’s connections just refuted the rumors, and say the colt is doing great; they expect a big race from him!
I read on today’s Racing Form, his trainer talking about his odd movement…..his trainer has been in the hospital for five days last week, for a blood infection, he says it’s time to start “taking care of himself”….
I posted about that earlier on Thursday,….It sounds like Beckman is lucky to be alive 😱….thank god he’s ok
That’s what I’m saying! He’s been training great with great energy. Looking happy all week. Watched him getting washed and cleaned.
He is ready to throw it down.
The American Pharoah Derby came up on my Facebook feed……the top three AP, Firing Line and Dortmund. Fierceness could be AP, Forever Young – Firing Line and Dornoch – Dortmund. Frosted just missed catching Dortmund for 3rd.
Just want to thank you Steve for your wonderful analysis of this years KD trail. This year was especially engaging for me and fun. I usually don’t follow the colts this closely as my love are the fillies, mares and older horses, but your articles on the KD trail really captured my attention and I have read every installment( often more than once), every week and all the comments. Thank you again for all you do for this sport and for this blog. You are a great and noble ambassador for thoroughbred horseracing. I hope you will continue the trail next year and best of luck to everyone this weekend and safe trips for all.
Thank you very much Diane. I really appreciate the kind words.
Unconfirmed report that Tyler’s Tribe passed away this morning after a work out.
Most of you probably remember him from the 2023 BC Juvenile.
Heavy bleeder.
Studies on SCD (sudden cardiac death) in Thoroughbred race horses have shown a link between EIPH and SCD.
Oaklawn has confirmed deats of Tyler’s Tribe and a horse named Collins.
All horses trained by Tim Collins have been scratched by the stewards while these two deaths are being investigated.
Heartfelt condolences to the owners, grooms, exercise riders, hot walkers.
Edit: All horses trained by Tim Collins have been scratched by the stewards while the death of Tyler’s Tribe is being investigated.
No details on cause of death for Collins at this time.
One comment that Andy Beyer made about horses coming out of the UAE Derby that I think makes sense. Beyer thinks that the path from Dubai to Kentucky is the wrong way to go. While he thinks that the runners might be talented enough, it’s too much travel right before a big race. Andy Beyer suggests that a better path would be to ship into Louisville a month or two early and run in a points race over here. Get acclimated to the surroundings. Maybe one or both of the Japanese horses will be good enough to overcome the 0 for 19 history of UAE Derby runners in the Derby. Maybe not.
I do not agree with Beyer.
I am with you on this Lynda. Beyer speed ratings are highly inconsistent & many times all over the board. Horses today are bred for speed, not stamina. As a result this makes bettors handicappers follow the Beyer speed figures.
The Derby, Preakness & especially the Belmont Stakes require stamina & soundness. Respectfully to all I persona;;y have no use for the Beyer method.
Well said Deacon.
Could not have said it better myself. Common sense prevails.
Andrew Beyer should consider stand up comedy. If memory serves me right, he’s picked TWO KD winners in the past 18 editions. His speed numbers are all over the map. He and his team assign numbers and a few days later they change their mind. I have yet to see Thoro-Graph do that.
Agreed Zany! Beyer resides in fantasy world,once stating Zenyatta was slow. Never do I put any stock in his opinions.
Steve, someone posted on a board that Honor Marie is out.
Some dude on Twitter said he’s sore, that his trainer said so in DRF. But that’s not true – Beckman just said that he’s not a fluid mover, and sometimes he looks good, sometimes not.
Have you heard anything?
Please no…
Can find nothing so far.
Lynda, either have I – and you’d think it would be out there already
I’m sick to my stomach – I hope it’s not true
I have not seen or heard anything either. He’s been looking healthy.
Neither have I – you’d think it would be out by now
Betsy I am thinking after an exhaustive search for info that whomever said he was out misinterpreted what Whit Beckman said.
Something similar happened to Forever Young. The ass’t trainer said in an interview some days ago that FY was a bit tired when he arrived at CD. A nationally known sportswriter used that as a reason to not expect much or bet on FY in the Derby and that it explained what he called a lackluster last work earlier this week.
I follow a lot of people on Twitter and if this were to be true about HM, I feel pretty certain that someone in the know would have said something.
I did see a photo of HM on Kentucky Derby Twitter page this morning of him walking over to the track and he looked sharp!
Aside re: the Oaks –
Our Pretty Woman is in, Tapit Jenallie is out with hind end soreness.
TJ’s trainer is another who rides her in the mornings, and he noticed her off earlier in the week. This looks like another nice display of horsemanship and sportsmanship. He called it because he cares about the horse, and he did it in time that someone else could give it a try.
That someone else is Our Pretty Woman, who looked great in her morning works anytime they gave us the pleasure of seeing her. She has not finished off the board in her 3 starts. Gorgeous pedigree – by Medaglia D’Oro (his mares are some of my favorites), out of a Speightstown mare. Trained by a great filly manager in Steve Asmussen, and ridden by a top notch filly rider – HOF inductee Joel Rosario.
Count me in on Our Pretty Woman, because why not on 40-1 at the eleventh hour?
Katy, Pretty Woman is absolutely stunning!
Has Medaglia D’Oro ever thrown an ugly filly? LOL
If he has, they have her hidden away, waiting for Shrek to rescue her!
My bosses got to see Medaglia D’Oro last fall, and they loved visiting him. Said he looks excellent for an old guy. They learned that he has the staff trained to come get him after about an hour out in his paddock on hot days. He comes to the gate when he’s had enough of the outdoors, knowing the fan in his stall will be on.
Happy Thurby, everyone!
Say, does anyone know of any websites that stream the Derby live for free? I know of the online wagering sites, but I’m wondering if there are any non-wagering sites that do this.
At one time, you could do a free trial of Peacock. Access on your phone or TV. You are stuck with NBC, but it is crystal clear footage.
We watched in 2022 that way, because one of our coworkers had the audacity to have a wedding! Imagine clusters of people around cell phones while the pretty people danced the Wobble… all of us incredulous about Rich Strike.
Thank you, Katy!
Regarding Sierra Leone’s drifting runs down the stretch I do have concerns for that.
Saw a short YouTube vid of Forever Young. His stride is 24.14 ft compared to secretariat at
24.9 Ft. His top speed is 42.5 mph.
Interesting stats. The more I look at Forever Young the more I like him.
Sierra Leone tends to drift to his left. If Tyler Gaffalione can get a clear run along the rail ala Calvin Borail, the inner rail could keep him running straight.
Brian Hernandez and Corey Lanerie like coming up the rail when they can. I bet they learned that move from watching Calvi Borrel for so many years.
I would love to see Sierra Leone make that move to the rail. Make a run like Rich Strike.
Could be, could be! The draw that looked like a curse could be his saving grace. We have seen this class go wide in the final turn in several preps, and spread waaay out. The waters could part for Biggie.
In addition to the interference this stands to create, I thought he had two noticeable drifts of stride in the Bluegrass stretch. Both created a momentary loss of forward momentum. The effect looked slightly like my sister trying to drive a stick shift. SL well may be the second coming of a tremendous machine, but he will have to prove it to me.
I can’t stand to care. When I care, they lose… but Forever Young would be my top pick. If I picked.
I would think if SL keeps it straight he would have a much better momentum for sure.
Gotta pick one! Thats what makes the derby so fun. I’m on the fence between Honor Marie and Forever Young. Got one more day to sleep on it.
Have liked him for weeks.
Thank you so much Steve. While I’m watching and handicapping from afar, your analysis and observations, by turns insightful, entertaining and enlightening, make me feel ‘at the races’ and that is such a joy. Your writing reminds me that while some may try to turn analysis and handicapping into a science, when it comes to thoroughbreds, this remains an art – and you are a true artist!
Good luck to everybody. (with thanks to Eurico Rosa da Silva for that catch phrase)
Dawn
Good morning all
Couple of things regarding Forever Young.
Beyer for Saudi Derby would have been 101 for Saudi Derby and 103 for UAE Derby.
Watched his second race in Japan this morning. He took a lot of kickback in that race. He came on strong in last 3 furlongs with a powerful stretch kick and won the race.
When was the last time anyone saw the trainer get on his trainee like Mr Yahagi did yesterday? His dismount reminded me of Frankie D’s, LOL.
I think I know why Frankie stayed on West Saratoga, which in hindsight was a good decision as Encino was scratched. Really good behind the scene story on West Saratoga, his owner and his trainer on NBC Sports website. Regarding Frankie D, yes his dream was to win the KD, but now he is part of a bigger dream for West Saratoga’s 74 year old trainer.
Of the thousands of colts born every year only one in 900 has the chance to go the distance and earn a gate in the Derby.
It has always been about dream, the dream of the small breeder, the small trainer with ten horses in his stable, the small owner who takes a chance on a colt that costs only $11,000 and wants the win for his trainer more so than himself.
One comment about Sierra Leone. In my opinion this colt’s Achilles Heel is the drifting. Part of it is his running style as Steve pointed out several times. I think it is something else as well. Watch one of his works some days ago. He was on the inside of his work partner. As his workmate came along side, SL pinned back his ears, had an angry look on his face ( yes horses do have facial expressions), turned his head to the left and started to lean in a bit before his rider got him going straight.
Hi Lynda
I’d appreciate knowing where you came up with those Beyer numbers on Forever Young, (101 in the Saudi Derby and 103 for the UAE Derby).
Yesterday, I watched a Brad Free/Andy Beyer video that provided their thoughts on the entire Derby field. When they discussed Forever Young, Andy mentioned he didn’t apply a Beyer Number to FY but would guess it was around 96 or 97 for the UAE Derby.
So, it appears there are conflicting Beyer numbers, and the source where they were derived.
Hopefully, you can provide clarification.
Thanks Lynda.
Bill I read the numbers on another site. As far as I know Andrew Beyer did not supply the information, that someone else did the calculations. It was a link off a post on X.
I personally do not pay a lot of attention to any of the speed figures. I read them of course.
I am more interested in the final times, the splits etc.
As to their accuracy I cannot say.
Thanks for the clarification, Lynda
Matthew W, betters are following your lead on Thorpedo Anna, she’s currently the 2-1 fav!!
Hi Steve,
Thank you for your tremendous work, it’s a big part of my overall handicapping system. Cases can be made for several in here with Fierceness and Sierra Leone leading the way. I will certainly have them included in some of my exotics. I am not giving up on Dornoch and I have a good feeling about Just a Touch and Endlessly so hopefully I can hit something big. Good Luck to the horses, jockeys and to you and your readers!
Best,
Hammer
Steve, thank you so much for all you’ve done with the analysis and insight this year – and for a long time! When you left Bloodhorse, I was thrilled that you put the Blog on Secretariat.com. When THIS webpage changed, my heart felt like it was in my throat until I confirmed that your blog – and the community it fosters – would go on. I am thankful for this little corner of the internet, and I can never adequately express how much happiness it brings to me. Thank you, Steve! Thank you, racing-loving internet friends!
Dear Horse Racing Gods: please give all the horses and jockeys at this meet safe, clean (in all the ways) trips. Please watch over the trainers, backside workers, ponies and outriders’ horses, stewards and track staff, farriers and vets, too.
I don’t know what to do with the Derby, so I may or may not have anything worth posting on that later. I haven’t picked a Derby winner in several years, and I’m not terribly encouraged that I know anything this year! But thank you again to all who have posted and have a great deal of conviction about it.
The lead-up to the Oaks/Derby always reminds me of the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, without family obligations and food I should not eat. I love this, and hope we keep these conversations going – and get more on Smarty! – through the rest of the year! <3
I have been closely reviewing T O Password’s works.
From a speed perspective, the colt’s 46 plus for 4F recorded two days ago suggests the Japanese invader has legitimate speed.
From a physical appearance perspective, the colt doesn’t play second fiddle to any of his likely American opponents. If runs to his looks he should be competitive.
From a stride mechanics/movement perspective, the Japan based colt possesses the stride extension of a dirt horse. Unlike his country mate Forever Young, no high knee action is apparent.
From a pedigree perspective, the colt should find 10F well within his scope. His sire won over 10F, and his dam sire was a mega turf router. His grand sire Sunday Silence won the KD. His grand dam sire Kingmambo imparted a lot of stamina into his progenies. See Below:
Lemon Drop Kid won the Belmont/Travers
Rule Of law /Encke- English St Leger
Boboman- Hollywood Turf Cup -12F
Tawqeet- Caulfield Cup – 2400M
With only two 9F starts completed in 1:57 & 1:54. The immediate conclusion is likely to be, TO Password isn’t fast enough to win the KD. But those slow times for the distance have to be viewed from a few perspectives.
The dirt tracks in Japan appear to very deep but more significantly, they also appear extremely lose. This is evident in the immense amount of kickback visible during races. The turns are sharp, and it appears horses negotiate 3 urns to complete 9F due to configuration.
T O Password 2nd start was 78 days after his first. That’s a long period between and head of the listed Fukuryu stakes against winners. His final time was 3 seconds faster than the one recorded on debut.
Being a late May foal, TOP should improve off his last start, with an additional 41 days of development. In both his 1st and 2nd starts the colt carried a 126lbs impost. The burdensome impost of the KD shouldn’t be a problem for the Japan invaders as he has been there and done that.
This colt appears to have the speed and stamina to win a graded stake over 10F race. But is it the requisite speed and stamina to win the KD? That is to be determined.
If possesses the potential to win the KD. His connections couldn’t have asked for a better pilot than Kimura Kazushi, who has displayed great hands and impeccable timing.
This post is possibly to myself, given that my future wager on the colt that will return $13K should a miracle occur, and he passes the post in front.
It’s the Kentucky Derby a race in which miracles often unfold and dreams are realized.
He looks great out there this week. Got a nice build and moves nicely on the track. He definitely got good speed. Perhaps being a late foal and the last race could have helped him condition for the derby.
I think his Achilles Heel will be the crowds and the noise and the inexperience. That is what basically happened to Kabirkhan in the World Cup.
Andy Beyer hasn’t picked a Derby winner since Ol Shep was a pup. This year, he has selected Fierceness as his top pick. Is this the kiss of death for Fierceness, or will Andy finally get it right? One thing for sure, he certainly didn’t go out on a limb in making his selection.
Ok, a Bozo the Clown prediction. Just number 1.
1. I predict he breaks Secretariat’s record.
Stop laughing.
Did i just say that one Secretariat’s website! I love you big guy! I do!
2. I predict Andy looks brilliant this year.
3. I predict he will go down in history as the first horse to win from post 17.
No bad juju.
I have to have my fun now because i may sour after Saturday, wishing i would have spent my money at Mickey Ds instead.
We may have to ban you for No. 1.
Woosh, i thought you were going to say for being a wise guy.
Totally understandable.
Go big Red!
Remember how fast they had the track when Monarchos won? Would they do that again if it is dry, for 150?
I think he is more of a Slew, if he’s the real deal. It needs proving, with the time for that closer and closer at hand!
I get your point, Bill, but just for the record, Beyer did pick Medina Spirit to win the 2021 running.
Even a blind squirrel will find an acorn once in a while.
And a broken clock is correct twice a day.
My looking for a big pay-out bet.
There generally is some horse that no one is talking about that gets a nice piece of the pie. Always some wise guys that likes to make fool of us all.
Well not this year. I know your game and I’m ready for you!
So here is my Bozo the Clown bet:
Society Man – although steve believes he has a shot to get a piece so if he wins he has to join me in wearing a big, red, ball on our noses.
Grand Mo the First
West Saratoga
Catalytic
Dornoch – My first derby pick way back when
T O password
I’ll put them below Sierra Leone, Stronghold, and Endlessly as i really like them.
18.00 bet. I blow more than that at Mickey Ds. No big mac on the big day.
I have a headache. I’m done studying. Everyone is starting to look alike, except you know who.
Steve – I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for continuing this amazing blog. You and this community give me a slow building excitement up to my favorite sporting event every year. Too few people visit this site, but I think each of us who check in every day can and should push to family and friends. No other equine site has anywhere near the in-depth analysis and amazing back-story content than you provide. I have been following you for 30 years, and will follow you as my primary source until you someday (hopefully a long time from now) decide to hang it up.
I like Stronghold at his projected odds. Biased because I have a future on him, but mainly because I am a huge fan of Ghostzapper. I think that Ghostzapper is the OG of FlightLine. His horses usually mature at the end of their 3 YO seasons, but hoping that SH, as a January foal, is ahead of that schedule. I agree that his female family is not stamina laden, but maybe Hawaii will rule the pedigree day!
Thanks again Steve. As a reminder, you and you alone won my over $10k when Monrarchos and Invisible Ink posted the exacta so many years ago. I was a kid in need of $ and somehow by your wisdom it fell into my lap. You are appreciated.
I cant tell you how much your words mean to me Greg. Thank you so much! And that exacta was the biggest I had ever cashed. I collected at a window on the backstretch and it was so exciting filling out my first IRS form lol.
Not sure if you will see this buried post Steve. But taking a trip back in time, you wrote about the allowance race that Invisible Ink was entered in against a fast miler called Percy Hope. You said that a strong finishing second from Inky would put him on the trail. I went to the Chicago OTB that day just to watch the race, and Inky dug down so hard to beat Percy by a neck. He would not be denied. When the weather in Louisville was in the high 80s that Derby day, I knew a tough kid like Inky would have a great shot of running in the $.
Writing about a second choice in an allowance is what separates the Steve Haskins from the boys LOL.
Steve, I would like to thank you for your 4 months of tireless dedication in putting the Derby Ranking together every week. Picking a winner in any race is daunting enough but to do in a 20 horse field is almost impossible. I appreciate your hard work. How you can accomplish this every Derby year just leaves me in awe. You are the most amazing turf writer I have ever had the pleasure to read. Plus you have so many intelligent & well educated bloggers. Your work is awe inspiring.
Right or wrong I have settled on 5 that I like. I will probably mostly play the exotics.
1. Sierra Leone- although a bad post I feel he is the best horse in the race. (win & exotics bets}.
2 Stronghold- win & exotic bets
3. Catching Freedom – win & exotic bets
4. Resilience- My true longshot bet. Win & exotics bets
5. Endlessly- win & exotics bets.
If the track becomes muddy or sloppy then it is anybodys guess who wins.
I don’t believe that the horses behind the leaders of this race like mud hitting them in the face either.
Good luck to all……….
Hi Deacon, that is so kind of you to say. Your words mean a reat deal to me. Thank you! And all the best with your bets.
Steve, thanks again for your in-depth, entertaining, analysis on how the Kentucky Derby may pan out when they jump this Saturday.
Due to the draw and inclement weather, I’m getting sceptical on how Sierra Leone may perform in this race. Watching the works so intensely has been straining my eyes, lol, while listening to everyone’s varying opinions on what they are seeing has been fun as well. Sometimes influential.
While waiting waiting for your highly anticipated final judgement, the four that interest me most are: Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Fierceness, and Just a Touch. In the Oaks: Tarifa and Just F Y I get the nod. We’ll find out soon what the racing gods are thinking.
In the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket this Saturday, City of Troy will probably romp in as the overwhelming favorite in a parade rather than a race.
The most constant part of the Derby Trail this year has been your unflinching eye to detail. Great work, Steve.
Hi Davids
While there is no logical reason to question City of Troy as he starts his season off in the 2000 Guineas, I feel an upset is in the works.
With so many 2000 Guineas entrants not having started yet this year, I don’t like the unknown variables that are present when a horse hasn’t started in about half a year.
As I expect you know, Frankel (to whom City of Troy has often been compared) had four starts as a juvenile and raced in (and handily won) the Group 3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury, two weeks before his romp in the Guineas – one of the rare years when the 200 Guineas and the Kentucky Derby were not held on the same day / weekend.
Of course anyone who bets against City of Troy has a strong potential of looking foolish by Saturday afternoon but I will put myself with those taking “the Field” over the odds-on-favorite.
Best of luck with your wagers and your favorites.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Hi Greg,
It’s the fashion now not to run before the 2,000 Guineas which I don’t particularly like but you go with the flow. The Craven Stakes used to be an exciting trial for the 2,000 Guineas but never more.
Aidan O’Brien has been high before on a number of colts in the 2,000 Guineas only to see the colt flop with little excuse really but when he says City of Troy is the best he’s ever had you have to take note.
Good luck beating City of Troy but I just can’t see it on paper, which doesn’t mean he can’t lose. Storm Boy looked invincible in the Golden Slipper Stakes but he lost. Both by Justify as well.
Best of luck with the horses you like in all the big races over the weekend. If you speak with Nelson give him my best wishes. I’m a bit in the same situation but you just grind through it. Let’s hope the rain stays away.
Thanks very much David. Thats a strong foursome. Good luck with it. I appreciate all your comments this year.
The Steve, Steve, and Lenny show was so much fun to listen to. Lenny’s forthcoming book on A. P. Indy sounds fantastic.
Domestic Product is my upset pick. Hopefully it doesn’t rain much!
Thank you Steve. I look forward to following your posts on the Derby every year. I feel that you provide some of the best unbiased insights for the Horses, Jockeys and Trainers on the Derby Trail.
That’s very kind of you Larry. Thank you so much.
Wow, Whit Beckman was in the hospital recently for a very serious condition. It sounds like he’s not close to 100% …I hope he gets well ASAP
So Dornoch has had a quarter crack for most of his career? They are dealing with it now, as reported by DRF. There have been a few major Derby contenders that have had quarter crack problems, and it rarely bodes well for the big race. Had this problem been reported before now?
Oh, oh! Does this mean we can expect a few more scratches? After all, the vets are supposed to be going over the Derby horses with a fine tooth comb.
Per Danny Gargen, “He’s super sound and the vets love him”.
Dornoch’s quarter crack appears to be a non-issue.
Keep the good thought, Bill. Maybe he’s more like Big Brown than like Quality Road, Uncle Mo, Girvin, Omaha Beach. I’m sure you can find quotes from the trainers attesting to their horses’ soundness. Seems that they’re sound until they’re not.
I’ll take Danny Gargen at his word, a man of integrity if you will.
If in fact Dornoch is unsound on Saturday morning, Gargen will do the right thing and scratch Dornoch prior to the race.
I’m sure he will. I agree he seems to be a trainer who cares.
“Kentucky Derby contender Dornoch has raced with a quarter crack on his right front foot for most of his career, according to a report Wednesday in Daily Racing Form.
David Grening of DRF reported that farrier Ian McKinlay has treated Mage’s full brother for the condition before each of his last races.
McKinlay told Grening he laces the top part of the crack with wires, like putting sutures on a cut.”
Shades of Big Brown.
Same farrier who worked on White Abarrio after transfer to Dutrow.
Not really a concern at this point in my opinion.
Lot depends on location, depth and width of quarter crack.
25 years since the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies winner has won the Kentucky Oaks.
Just 8 years since Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile the previous Fall.
Just 2 horses have accomplished those doubles in both the Oaks and Derby.
Street Sense and Nyquist & Silverbulletday and Open Mind.
Dornoch appears to be flying under the radar, but judging by his most recent work, going 4 furlongs in 46.60, it appears Danny Gargan has this Good Magic colt fully fit and ready to fire a big effort in the Derby. I drew a line through his 4th place finish in the Blue Grass for a couple of reasons. He already had enough points to qualify for the Derby, prior the Blue Grass, so why go all out to beat Sierra Leone? Gargan could have given instructions to Luid Saez to do just that, just go through the motions and keep him fit.
The way he came back on Sierra Leone, in the Remsen, is indicative of his street fighter demeanor which is an added plus in a 20-horse field.
He’s bred from the Mr. Prospect/Northern Dancer cross, which reflects a strong mix of speed, class and stamina. And, last but not least, he’s a full brother to Mage, last year’s Derby winner.
I expect Dornoch to be on lead in the early going and continue to lead the pack throughout. Can he carry his impressive speed for 10 furlongs? Stay tuned.
At 20-1, his odds a very enticing, IMO.
Right now he is 8-1
Hey Steve,
Jayson Werth is a former MLB player, and part owner of Dornoch. It’s very possible his former teammates jumped on the Dornoch bandwagon, which caused his odds to drop significantly. 🙂
Steve, how do you feel about the draw? The points leaders can draw the worst posts and the twentieth horse to qualify can draw the best. Should posts be drawn in order of points earned?
Thanks for all the insight.
Thats always been a major complaint. It makes sense but I doubt they’ll change it.
Looking for a horse to toss so does anyone know who Andy-The biggest Jinx in the Biz-Beyer is choosing? Last year I was all in on Derma Sotogake, a horse who’s talent was justified in the BC Classic, but whose chances went up in flame when Andy Picked him. Does anyone know who he is touting this year?
OUCH, Just found out he is on Fierceness. The Jinx is on. I do agree with him that Just A Touch is a legitimate choice outside of Fierceness and will bring value to a Fierceness wins ticket. More to come, news at 11.
El Kabong, you have my sympathy over Andy the Jinx. I know exactly how you feel, you high-five yourself when he picks a horse you have discarded. Lol.
Everyone seems to think that with no speed outside of Fierceness, he has no worries. And although Stronghold is more of a stalker, he is one of the best breaking horses in this race, second only to Track Phantom. He broke like a quarter horse in the SA Derby and similarly in all but one other start. IF he gets the jump on Fierceness it could really spell the beginning of trouble for Fierceness. I don’t want this to happen, but I see it as a clear possibility.
Couldn’t agree more. Stronghold, Domestic Product, and Forever Young look dangerous to me.
The other ‘bad luck’ Andy went for Domestic Product, Honor Marie, Sierra Leone and Fierceness which is a worry as well. lol.
Good luck.
Just finished listening to At The Races, and I have to say, the Haskin/Schulman duo is the best since Batman and Robin! LOL So Great!
As for the Derby, I still think this is Fierceness’s race to lose. I also really love Just A Touch, and Domestic product. I’m still trying to figure out who will get the best trip, and my crystal ball is in the shop and the parts are unavailable! I hate when that happens!! 😉
LOL. Which one of us is Batman?
It’s hard to tell which is which, but definitely the dynamic duo!
I’m not allowed to make anymore blasphemous comments or they are locking the doors on me, but I’ll say this, he appeared to be coasting home, and the clocked still looked good. It almost looked deceivingly good. I was wondering if they got it right.
I even thought he may have tired, but he looked like a fresh horse afterwards.
This may all turn out to be a pipe dream, but it’s all I have to look forward to because I haven’t picked a winner in five year.
I did have Max Security and it was going to be a fairly big cash out day for me, but we all know how that turned out.
And i still believe in miracles, so there’s that.
Was referring to his Florida Derby run.
Always Dreaming keeps coming to mind when i watch that race.
He either goes or flops, but i think he finally has Velasquez trained and may just pull it off.
By the way, I love Johnny!
I know i sound cocky sometimes, but I’m just having fun.
This began as a horribly week for me and this was just the diversion i needed. Thank you, and thanks to our astute host.
Think i landed these prior two in the wrong slot. Hopefully whom it was meant for will find it.
And that’s 3 posts today, my daily minimum. Don’t want to push my luck. Until tomorrow.
No bad juju.
Peg: What station broadcast At the Races, and can I get the feed on replay?
Great to hear you on BYK! Haskin and Schulman classic banter. Love it!
It was fun doing that again
Steve – noticed that Endlessly “stood in the gate “ after a gallop out and Mystic Dan stood in the gate prior to a long gallop out on April 30 – is there an advantage in the before and/or after method?? I see Mystic Dan is in post 3 which will mean a long wait time before the gates open. Thanks Steve.
No advantage. Each trainer has his reason. I have seen it both ways
Thanks for replying to me Steve. Always appreciate your insights.
I believe that all runners have a chance of winning. This year, the chances range from 1% to 18-20% for 19 runners. But I’m having trouble understanding the attention given to T O Password. In my view, his chance of winning has zeroes before and after the decimal point. I figure his chance of finishing last is far greater.
What is there in his record that inspires attention?
This morning, at the conclusion of the works show, Kaitlin Free was discussing her top choice in the Derby, Forever Young. During her discussion, they showed a video of the early morning paddock training with the exercise rider walking around leading Forever Young. Guess who was in the saddle? None other than the trainer, Yoshito Yahagi. This guy is so cool, one hand on the reins, the other hand on his hip, nodding to well wishers. I love everything about Team Forever Young. They seem to be so meticulous in paying attention to every detail.
Right? These guys taking care of Forever Young are honest to goodness horsemen. When I said it looked like I could ride FY, I was joking. Now I actually sort of believe it! The last few weeks, this horse and the exercise rider looked like they were out for a morning trail ride each day, but seeing the trainer get in on it, how friendly and willing and accessible the horse has been… this horse and group has won my heart – and my respect for the horsemanship and gamesmanship. The trainer up reminded me of Larry Jones. I literally pray that this group finds the luck, success, and safety on Derby Day that Larry never fully found.
Dr Robert M Miller: “Adrenaline is the only legal stimulant in racing.” Better believe this boy will have his for the run, because he will not be wasting it pregame.
That’s probably one of the coolest scenes I’ve ever seen at with the derby. Definitely the place to experience and live it. No better than a horse that’s a contender like Forever Young.
I just feel like Forever Young will run his race and unleash his final blow just like he’s done so. He just has the heart and the will to power through. Just relentless and close hard to the finish line. That’s what I love about this guy. Another thing is he seems to have a big tank of gas in him.
Did you see how the exercise rider took him over to the rail the last two days and people were taking his pcture and reachng out and petting him. You sure dont see that.
I saw that, Steve. As I’ve said before, Forever Young not only has talent, but, he’s got tons of personality, as well.
That was very cool.
That’s was great to see, Steve. How to attract new fans to the sport.
Larry should have gotten his Derby Winner. Hard Spun got beat by a Jockey who pulled off a miracle trip where the red sea parted not once, but twice to give Street Sense that unbelievable trip. And poor Friesan Fire who loved running in the slop, see the 2009 Louisiana Derby where he destroys Papa Clem by double digit lenghts) was compromised at the start when Papa Clem who was shoved over into Friesan, stomped his leg and foot, damaging Friesans hoof and leg. He had blood all over this wraps when he came back. I think the world of Larry and hope that one day he gets his horse.
I’m pushing my luck and breaking my 3 posts a day limit, but i think it’s ok because the other bozo is just my alter ego.
As someone that really doesn’t know much about horseracing, compared to the fine folks here, I’d like to say that there are just some things that bother me about horse racing. I don’t know how many times i have yelled at the screen, “For the love of God, the horse just wants to look around. Stop yanking on his chain and let him look around.”
Last year is the first year i recall seeing so much of the behind-the-scenes footage and my thoughts were , if they think this is helping the sport, i beg to differ. Just let the horse look around
Now i realize there’s a lot going on and they probably looking to avoid any hairy situations, but i thought it was overkill.
So I’m not going to go on and on about it. I’ve read enough of Steve’s articles to know some of what he’s about and we love the gift he gives. There is a time and place for everything and you have to respect the wishes in others’ homes, but i am telling you, I’m not the only one that feels this way, and why i only play on the very big race days.
When i watched FY and his rider warming up to the crowd. When i see how generous his connections are with him, i was thinking the same thing, the sport needs this. I already feel more trustworthy and hopeful for the future of the sport. Win or lose FY and his connections are priceless winners already
Heck, I’m ready to pack my bags and move to Japan because people drive me nuts! Oops, the alter ego got past me.
Love this Dewey. Thank you for sharing.
There is so much, in my opinion, to love about this colt…his trainer, ass’t trainer, exercise rider, pedigree, his jockey, connections in Japan, his personality, how calm he is and that long stride and that he drops his head. And he trains in D ring snaffle bit.
I know people probably get tired of reading this but Secretatist trained and raced in a D Ring snaffle.
Many Ametican horses have shadow rolls, ring bits, blinkers nosebands that put pressure on the nose and tongue tie downs.
Lynda, at the Trainers’ Dinner last night, Yoshito Yahagi was asked if he has addressed the issue that Forever Young has with kickback. He replied with a smile, “yes, but it is secret”. He does have a sense of humor and he may also have a few tricks up his sleeve. We shall see.
Definitely a ” hold my beer” moment.
Three days out, a better weather forecast for Louisville on Saturday. “A few showers in the morning, then clouds lingering in the afternoon. High 81F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.”
Yes!!
Winston, I just checked the latest weather forecast for Saturday – light rain at 3 pm.
Davids, you need to shop around!
Winston, I know exactly what you mean. Ha ha
If the existing trend which features none of the dominant sideline’s wining more than 2 consecutive running of the KD in the last 20 years, carries over to 2024. No Horse from the Mr. Prospector sire line will likely emerge the winner of the KD.
The 2022 & 2023 were from the Mr. Prospector sire line.
The best entrant from the Mr. P in the 2024 likely KD field is Sierra Leone. As much as I have been a big supporter of $2.3M colt. I am concluding that the trend will continue. I will therefore not be using him as a win candidate despite his best in the field status.
If he emerges the winner, I will collect on my future wager placed in either pool #1 or #2.
I have this gut feeling along with the colt’s PPs, that Stronghold is sitting on a monster race. He has good cruising speed and has displayed the ability to accelerate out of said cursing speed and remain resolute to the line.
Ghostzapper is dam sire of a TC winner. Becoming the sire of a KD winner should be easier of the two tasks.
A rare KD entrant for the fastest BCC winner has to be a must use.
If it’s RARE, for a Ghostzapper to make the Derby…WHY does that make him a MUST USE? I thought you liked Sierra Leone, he’s got the size and the big kick, there’s no way I could leave him off my trifecta box….I’m messing with ya, CF, go with your gut! Remember: the trifecta can still pay handsomely, with a 4-1 shot on top……
“The best entrant from the Mr. P in the 2024 likely field is Sierra Leone”.
One thing to keep in mind, Counter Point, Fierceness is from the Mr. Prospector sire line, and the likely post time favorite in this year’s Derby. From my perspective Fierceness checks more boxes than Sierra Leone. Just my opinion.
My Top Six. No point in being cautious in a 20-entrant field of improving 3YO in a race of glorious uncertainties.
Sierra Leone -Future wager
Stronghold
Domestic Product – Future wager
T O Password – Future Wager
Resilience – Future Wager
Epic Ride
Blame a BCC winner and Zenyatta heart breaker is the sire of Epic Ride. A review of Blame’s CD record reveals he made 5 starts at the venue and won 4. His only loss was over 7F a distance way too short for older horse who was deprived of a HOTY Eclipse.
Two of Blame’s 9 of 13 wins were recorded at Keeneland. Those wins were followed by starts at CD which produced a win and a close loss at an unpreferred distance. Epic Ride will follow up his Keeneland start with a start at CD. Like father, like son
Gio Pont is the dam sire of Epic Ride who only non-turf start was on All-Weather where he finished 2nd to All-Weather Goddess Zenyatta in the 2019 BCC.
I was hoping for Epic Ride to draw into the KD as the he could relish the surface at CD. It is my hope that the CD surface is still accommodating to turf/synthetic types even after possible changes due to the brief period of multiple fatalities.
With Encino out Fierceness moves to Post 16 and Stronghold becomes the bearer of the Post 17 curse.
Earth to Nelson Mann, Earth to Nelson Mann, come in please.
We need your final thoughts on the Derby. Over and out.
Hi Bill
I have been in touch with Nelson this past weekend by email. (We are friends from when I lived in Calgary where he still resides.)
I told him his presence was missed here on Steve’s blog; Nelson explained me he is quite busy with work.
I am hoping he will post before Saturday but he sounds swamped. He and his insight is certainly missed.
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . now living in Winnipeg)
Thanks for the reply, Fan of Damascus.
Hopefully, Nelson will find the time to provide a few comments in the next day or two. His vast knowledge of horse racing is well received on this end.
Good luck.
Is it unprecedented for one KD entrant to directly and indirectly have 16 opponents in a Kentucky Derby field covered?
Sierra Leone has defeated 8 of the likely starters.
Of the 8 likely starters he has defeated, 3 have defeated another 5 likely starters.
Of the 5 defeated by the likely starters that were defeated by Sierra Leone, 3 defeated another3 likely starters. (8+5+3 = 16)
It is always dangerous and sometimes ill-advised to conclude that a defeated opponent that has in turn defeated a pending opponent, it means the pending opponent should be dismissed. See Below:
Domestic Product – Finished ahead of Fierceness in the Holy Bull. Fierceness defeated
Catalytic & Grand Mo the First in the FL Derby. Domestic Product
defeated No More Time who defeated West Saratoga in the Sam
Davis
Dornoch
Track Phantom
Catching Freedom – Defeated Mystik Dan & Just Steel in the Smarty Jones; Mystik
Dan defeated Wynstock in the SW. Wynstock defeated,
Stronghold in the Los Al Futurity.
Honor Marie
Just A Touch
Epic Ride
Resilience – Defeated Society Man in the Wood Memorial
Many might disagree with chain perspective above. But it is irrefutable.
The only likely starters that are excluded from Sierra Leone’s direct and indirect defeat chain are Endlessly, Forever Young and T O Password.
Many might disagree and rightfully dismissive of the above perspective from which Sierra Leone can be viewed against his likely opponents. But it appears the Chad Brown $2.3M colt has only 3 likely opponents to add to his defeat direct defat list.
EDIT;
Many might disagree and be rightfully dismissive of the above perspective from which Sierra Leone can be viewed, against his likely opponents. But it appears the Chad Brown $2.3M colt has only 3 likely opponents to add to his direct defeat list.
I’ve never seen Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon applied to the Kentucky Derby.
Mike Welsh at DRF says that he was more impressed with T O Password than with Forever Young. Good news for poster Mr. Counter Point who is holding a nice future bet on T O Password. The Forever Young supporters shouldn’t be too dismayed. It was only a workout and most of us have no idea how the Japanese trainers operate.
A terrific 2 days of racing ahead. Not quite the quality of a Breeders Cup, but big and competitive fields. Who knows? Maybe the rain will even miss Churchill Downs.
I read a lot of commentary and practically no one “in the know” was impressed by Forever Young’s gallop this morning. One nationally know sports writer commented that the ass’t trainer admitted that the colt was a little tired when he arrived at CD and was not enthusiastic getting on the track the first few days. Heaven forbid I guess that a colt who probably qualifies for frequent flyer miles was a little tired upon arrival. This nationally known writer has dropped Forever Young down as a result. What I saw this morning was a relaxed, well conditioned colt stride out with those long legs, ears pricked.
TOP’s style is to get to the lead as quickly as possible. Question then is can he hold that speed.
He was almost caught at the wire in the Fukuryu. If this had been the Derby the 2nd place winner in the Fukuryu would have gotten by him.
Mr Yahagi arrived today for the Trainers/Owners dinner. If he feels that Forever Young is not in form to run in the Derby he will probably scratch him as he did Continuar last year.
I for one think he was just fine. They did say he ain’t the prettiest worker. The work prior to today’s looked good. He had a work partner. Today he was just out there by himself. Was probably bored and nothing to run after.
I hope he goes 20-1 hehe.
Oh man, he’s one of my top 4.
He seems like an all around dream horse. Always brings it, great demeanor. Doesn’t seemed bothered by anything.
I have to play catch up on the works, yet those Japanese horses do seem to have a challenging time of it here. I hope he perks up, gives us a good run, then get a big a___ break after wards.
Lynda,alot of people say alot of things. Not concerned what the sports writer thinks. Thinking FY runs well Saturday.
Count me a big fan of Forever Young. I’m not sure they needed him to do too much in his work, and I love his mechanics. His lead changes are effortless, and although he wasn’t fast in the work overall, I thought where he looked good was in the stretch and gallop out. I hope he gets right out there into a nice stalking spot.
What I witnessed this morning was an alert, well conditioned horse who seems well acclimated to the Churchill surface. Forever Young’s work impressed me as the rider nudged him with a soft tap on the shoulder once then again and he just accelerated picking up the tempo and flying under the wire. Talk about a push button horse, Forever Young fits the description big time.
I do have an issue with T O Password. He seems like a very nervous, easily spooked horse. Tuesday morning while walking along the inner rail, he was spooked by the fans on the fence, jumped up, twirled around an almost threw the rider. He was sweating behind. The rider got him under control and he took off running. My point is this…. how’s he going to act with a crowd of 150,000 on Saturday? Why does this bother me? He’s in the post next to Forever Young. If TOP acts up in the gate, you know it’s going to affect our boy. Maybe I’m making too much of TOP’s demeanor but it does concern me.
EDIT; “What I witnessed Tuesday morning”,
Dreams are free!
The wager was made just in case history is repeated 141 years later.
I don’t see much chatter on here about Friday’s Kentucky Oaks. Maybe because of the threat of rain. It’s a doozy of a race IMO. A worthy prelude to the Derby. I figure 8 of the 16 entrants with a chance to win including the 2 also-eligibles. Thorpedo Anna feels like the “wise-guy” horse in the Oaks. Like Honor Marie is in the Derby. Both horses look very good and wouldn’t surprise me if either or both won. Sometimes the “wise-guys” are right.
The Morning Line favorite in the Oaks is Brad C’s Tarifa. There’s that man again. Flavien Prat to ride this one. Tarifa was hot stuff down at Fairgrounds this winter. She’s a Godolphin and shows a nice rising numbers pattern over her last 4 races. Four works since raced and a nice workout pattern. Her first try at a mile and an eighth. Her only loss was at Churchill.
Ways and Means goes 2nd off the layoff for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. She’s fast and has found trouble in all 3 of her races. She may have left her race out on the workout track last Friday when she went 46.1 over 4-furlongs. Way too fast for a Brown worker. Tyler G picks up the mount as Irad Ortiz stays with Leslie’s Rose.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Just F Y I will go 2nd off of a layoff for Bill Mott and George Krikorian. Mott has said that he wished she had one more race. Mott and Junior Alvarado have been very very dependable over the last couple of years. Can Just F Y I turn the tables on Leslie’s Rose? A bullet 59.4 workout on the 22nd just 4 days after a 4-furlong workout says YES. A strange workout pattern for Bill Mott. But again, who am I to question a masterful trainer? One of America’s best in my opinion. Such a strange move by Mott, that I view it as a positive.
Good race. Don’t forget about Power Squeeze, Our Pretty Woman, and Candied. Candied was making a serious move at Just F Y I in the BC to only miss by 3/4 of a length. Candied has to make it into the race off of the AE list.
I’m inclined to go with Just FYI, just because Mott is kind of an artist in these situations. Cox, Brown, and Pletcher just have too many horses to have the same focus. However, Leslie’s Rose is an interesting longshot. Her lasr race fit a couple of angles I use, but I somehow failed to bet her.
I say Leslie Rose. I think it’s Todd’s double…but what do i know? I’m just another bozo that thinks they know what they are talking about.
Is Rich Strike in this race?
Forgive me. I really had one of the worst days of my life today. Thank you all for putting up with my gibberish and making me feel better.
Go Rich Strike!!!!!
Run them off their feet!
Forgot to say, thanks for your insight Steve. Very insightful. Love your analysis, and love the good folks here.
Just don’t forget the eenie, meenie, minee mo bet in case, or am i the only one that makes that bet?
Ok, going to stick my head in the sand now.
I will be swinging for the fences with a $30,000 claimer turn KY Oaks entrant.
Horses are unaware they are likely to be outclassed prior to a race. There are times when some out run their PPs and odds.
30-1 Morning Line. Good luck again. The Filly has won 3 of her last 4 and 2 of 3 for new connections since claim. A wet track would likely help her chances and distance doesn’t look to be a problem. It will be her first on dirt, but a surface where she should thrive. Wow! She would pay good.
Val Brinkerhoff brought a long time maiden from Santa Anita out to Aqueduct, he had fitted her with blinkers and her form took an upturn, she ran practically the same time as the winner of the Wood Memorial, and she looked as good, too……(Where’s the Ring?)….I’ll box her with Thorpedo Anna and Ways and Means ….
I think it might be the better race!
I like Just FYI best, and agree with Todd Vaughn about how Mott has managed her. He has reasons for how he has worked her, and I drank the Koolaid, which was pretty good.
Also impressed with Where’s My Ring, and the Cox fillies. I think Gin Gin may have more in the tank than little Tarifa, who looks to be a difficult child. Thorpedo Anna gets my sentimental bet: I love that she was a bargain, and out of a premie mare who stands 15H. I think Leslie’s Rose’s draw gave her a lot to overcome.
If I was the owner of the Oaks winner, I would be watching the Derby with a lot of interest to see if I thought I had the best 3 y/o coming out of the weekend. Weather and looming California horses taken into account, could a filly target the Preakness?
Dumb anecdote:
Just FYI’s name makes me laugh, because of the phrase. My husband had a coworker who would send emails with the phrase “Just For Your FYI.” We said she worked in the Department of the Redundancy Department. Now that wrongness is a part of OUR vernacular (always with a chuckle). And yes, I do have insomnia.
HOF and KD trainer Carl Nafzger visited West Saratoga’s trainer Larry Demeritte at CD. He told Larry that he was proud of him.
If the there is one horse I hope hits the board or possibly win the Derby it is West Saratoga.
Mr Demeritte has been fighting lymphoma cancer since 1995. I watched a very touching interview yesterday with him. This colt is the reason he goes to the track everyday no matter how bad he feels. He also said he would not trade West Saratoga for any other horse running in the Derby.
West Saratoga was an $11,000 acquisition. By Exaggerator out of Mo Wicked (Uncle Mo) is the only grey in the Derby this year.
I have watched his works and he has a lovely stride and is steadily improving.
Latest odds have him at 39/1.
Sometimes miracles do happen.
Amen. 5.00 win bet on Westie. Love me them greys!
We all know that Agate Road has been used as a workout partner for Fierceness. Getting left in Fierceness’ wake mostly. Looking at the 9th race on Saturday, Agate Road is the #14 horse. Way out there. Did working with the 2-year-old champ and likely Derby favorite quicken him up? Or is he all worn out from chasing his better and faster stablemate? Back to turf. He’s a Repole/Pletcher and it could be their day. Not the greatest edition of the American Turf IMO. But a very good betting race if you can beat the Charlie Appleby shipper who has won 4 of 5 in England and Dubai. Legend of Time will carry Frankie Dettori.
BTW, I still find it hard to believe that Todd Pletcher chose Agate Road as a workout partner for Fierceness. He has a stable full of quality dirt horses. Pletcher must have wanted to give Fierceness some confidence. Using Agate Road as a sort of Sacrificial lamb. As always, who am I to question a Hall of Famer?
After going through all 27 races for the coming weekend extravaganza, I have to say that Brad C is loaded for bear. Not just lots of horses, but lots of low priced horses. Mostly Florent Geroux, but some Flavien Prat in there as well. Brad C is pulling out all the stops and is bringing out his stars. If someone were to bet $2 on every one of his entrants over the 2 days, that person would surely cash some tickets. Maybe a whole bunch. Enough to come out ahead? Hard to say. Maybe if Just a Touch or Chasing Freedom were to win.
Brad C has so many good horses that I wonder how he keeps track of them all.
I was very disappointed in the news that Encino was scratched out of the Derby. He was to be a key factor in my exotics.
Brad Cox had said that Encino was off after his breeze this morning. I used to know what the term meant, but, I seemed to have forgot. Can anyone tell me what specifically “being off” means?
This one stings, for sure.
I tried to reply to you about how I interpret “off,” but it ended up under Gary’s earlier post breaking the Encino news. And I apologize that it turned into a tirade of sorts, to boot.
No apology necessary, Katy. Thanks for your reply. I read elsewhere that Encino suffered a ‘soft tissue strain’ in his right foreleg. Doesn’t sound serious, but, Brad wasn’t going to race him if he wasn’t 100%. Hopefully, Encino will be a major player in this summer’s stakes.
Fierceness is the morning line favorite at 5-2, with Sierra Leone a close second at 3-1. Mike Battaglia has been setting the ML for 50 years. His ML favorites have been the post-time favorites in 76% of derbies. Will he be correct this year? If Sierra Leone is the ML favorite, Fierceness has 50 years of tote board history to overcome. All 12 of the ML faves that weren’t PT faves lost the Derby.
It seems that most sports books have SL with a slight edge over Fierceness.
Hoping for a fast track….latter day sloppy tracks are rolled down, and speed dominates rolled surfaces….
I don’t “see” any other horse with early speed finishes in front of Fierceness, if Fierceness runs his race, I’m looking for closers to run behind Fierceness
Is there a list of the Tomlinson ratings for either both the Oaks and or the Derby ? I used to be able to access them before I fell off the world and retired .
Thank you
Chris
I believe that the DRF website will have the Derby as the race of the day on Saturday. The Derby PPs (with the Tomlinson ratings) should be free and downloadable at least by early Saturday morning if not Friday night.
The Brisnet PPs have fairly reliable off-track ratings, plus win percentages for offspring of the sire and dam’s sire.
Winston
Thank you
Glad epic ride got in there. I have catching freedom with him on a future wager.
My strategy on my very measly derby money this year will be . 50 cents tri: Fierceness on top, with all in second, and CF, ER, SL, Stronghold.
Been very difficult for me to separate horses after the top four that I like and I probably will add a couple more names to my bottom list. I’ll also do Fierceness with all. Thought of also doing ALL with Fierceness, but figure if he doesn’t win he’ll be further back than that. I’m a huge Catching Freedom fan, but I also hate to leave Fierceness out in case he’s Fierce that day. Go baby run. Let him loose. Don’t discourage him, win or lose I’m with you.
I will have several exacta boxes with CF.
I like to put at least 5.00 win on longshots, but I’m trying to cut back this year. Almost did on Rich Strike and regret that I held back.
I have made several changes in the story with the scratch of Encino. Basically, not loving any other longshots and aleady having Just a Touch in all my bets I am adding aonther 10-1 shot in the exacta box, Forever Young, and as a win bet if you are willing to bet more money on him and/or Just a Touch because of their lower odds. There are just too many strengths I imentioned last week on Forever Young not to include him . I feel these are five solid horses to play under Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and Catching Freedom. At this point I donI know how the betting will go between Catching Freedom and Forever Young.
Thank you Steve! In the past you have mentioned horses that seem to be thriving since arriving at Churchill. I believe you mentioned Mine That Bird in 2009 for example. Has anyone caught your eye this year? Thanks again.
The main one that comes to mind is Honor Marie. I go more into detail in the story.
Cox says Encino will likely be rested for 30 days, so no Preakness for him either. Bummer. He looks like a promising horse.
Ms. Blacktype, I’ve said it a hundred times, extend the length of time between the Triple Crown races. Four weeks from the Derby to the Preakness (Memorial Day weekend) and five weeks from the Preakness to the Belmont (4th of July weekend). These horses today are not built to have three races in five weeks. The change will happen, it’s just a matter of when.
Whoops! My apologies, Ms. Blacktype, I didn’t realize that Encino was scratched out of the Derby. I’ve got egg on my face.
Darn, I was going to use Encino in my exotics.
Agreed!
Great handicapping by Mr Steve Haskins and i will put Fierceness on top of all my pick because i believe he is far superior to all the rest and the Holy Bull was a means to an end to get him ready for the Derby.His 110 beyer towers over this field.
We are almost at the end of a long journey which has brought us so close to arguably the most thrilling two minutes in sports. There have been ups and downs, head scratching results, fast and slow final race times.
The weather forecast looks a bit worrisome (40% scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon). With the exception of Stronghold and the Japanese invaders, the majority of the field has wet track experience. Therefore, I am not too concerned with the off going for the front runners.
For some fans, the thrill of a come from behind closer is exhilarating. However, history tells us that the KD is usually won by speed possessors or stalkers. With the experience of John Velazquez, I see a clean break for Fierceness. After watching his most recent works, I agree with Steve. This horse is primed for a great effort. I am riding the bandwagon until a giant pothole throws me off.
Excepting Bob’s Brigade ….and the Tampa Bay colt…..this year has had few defections.
Whoops ! And Encino..
Encino has been scratched
To all…..need clarification. With Encino scratching, does this mean Fierceness will move one slot over and not come out of gate 17?
Yes, all after Encino move one post inside. Epic Ride gets #20.
Thank you WF.
Just for clarification, all the horses that move in will retain their original P/P number, correct? That is, for betting purposes, Fierceness will retain #17, Stronghold will retain #18, Resilience will retain #19, etc. etc. Correct?
Correct, and Epic Ride will race out of the 20 post with No. 21 for betting purposes.
Winston, didn’t Todd Pletcher state that “even if a horse came out [after the draw] I’d keep post 17”. I thought it was hogwash at the time to cover up disappointment. Don’t you love how ‘sow’s ears turn into silk purses’ in horse racing? Made me giggle at the time.
Are the connections of Fierceness now pulling their hair out because Fierceness has post 16 instead of 17? lol.
Yeah, that was a silly thing for him to say. Like he could refuse the post position move. Ha! Dave Grening at DRF said of the Fierceness move to Post 16, “He can now win the Kentucky Derby.”
Well. Winston, if Fierceness doesn’t win the Derby they can blame the movement from 17 to 16 post. Ha ha
Davids, you funny!
Usually, off probably means he was not traveling as well as expected, but to say it that way, it was likely subtle. Versus saying he was limping or lame or dead lame or DFL… or DFO. Grade 1-2/5 on lameness scale, unless this is being seriously downplayed.
Depending on the injury, lots of therapeutic options from injecting stem cells or platelet rich plasma to plain old tincture of time/poultice of air. These can take a while to get right, depending on severity and where it is. Strain implies tendon or muscle without boney involvement (which is sprain).
A young racehorse can certainly be his own worst enemy if he is too rambunctious in the rest period. Behave yourself, Encino. I want to see you again. Maybe.
I am terribly sad about this one, although I am glad that they caught it early. I have to think it was real, not a back down excuse. He looked to be sitting on a big race from the works. Wah!
PS – I take back what I said about excusing Fappiano, that great concentrator of brittle speed, in the pedigree. I knew it made my face twitch for a reason.
Apologies… this was supposed to be a response to Dewey Herbert, but MAN is my phone glitchy tonight, and laptop is a lost cause.
Steve, you’ve looked at this Derby and this field from every conceivable angle — and in a way no other handicapper can match. I can’t thank you enough for sharing your knowledge, and quite literally, your world, with all of us.
Thanks to you, I’ve learned more about the various kinds of figures this season than ever before. Now it’s up to us to figure out how to use them!
As for me, I’m going with Sierra Leone as the winner. I’ve come up with one boxed superfecta so far: Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Just Steel, and Honor Marie. I will also play around with six-horse supers, tossing in various others, including Fierceness. There’s a lot to choose from: I only have nine tosses!
BTW, the weather forecast on Weather dot com looks better this morning. Morning rain Friday followed by scattered thundershowers the rest of the day; rain showers early Saturday morning followed by cloudy skies. We can hope.
Thank you Ms B and for all your contributions.
When they hit the clubhouse turn I expect to see…….
Track Phantom
Dornoch, TO, Fierceness
Just A Touch, Encino, Forever Young
Just Steel, Stronghold, Rez
Mystik Dan, Domestic P, GrandMo
Catalyst, West Saratoga, Endlessly
Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Society Man
Sierra Leone
Expect a fast pace. 22+, 45+, 109+, 135+ ,148+ ,201+
What happens after that club turn, hmmmm.
If it’s 2:01 then Fierceness wins, for a 2:01 you need a horse than can run a 1:48…..
Well then I guess that settles it. Didn’t expect it to be so easy but how can we deny it. However, those figures are based on a fast track and I think based on the outlook we can take a torch to those numbers. Back to the drawing board.
T O Password worked 4F in 46 plus. I am not sure what was the final time for the reported 5F work. His retained rider was aboard, and he stated after that the colt finished up strongly.
The one of 2 undefeated Japanese invader is a good-looking physical specimen. He is carrying good weight & conditioning and has a look of class.
I paid careful attention to his walk during his warmup. In my opinion his stride pattern suggests the KD distance is well within his scope. He has more of a router’s walk than more fancied Forever Young.
Based purely on physical appearance and demeanor. T O Password appears poised to give me a good run for my franklin. If his best isn’t good enough, so be it.
Wow he went that fast?? He was going nicely but wasn’t expecting that fast. He did it nicely and easy within himself.
Forever Young had a really easy work. Looks like it was just a maintenance work. He is ready. Just an athletic leggy guy.
Steve, THANK YOU for all your time, effort, and wisdom. I only bet once a year at the derby so I don’t really understand everything that you reference, However, every time I read your summaries I get a little smarter.
Good Luck
Jimmy Mack
So happy to hear that Jimmy. Thank you very much.
I am surprised Stronghold was not included in the wagering recommendations.
The colt has tactical speed and should be forwardly placed with a good break. His dam line doesn’t scream stamina, and this might be a cause for concern over 10F. However, talented horses have been known to outrun their pedigrees.
Stronghold’s gallop out after the SA Derby was very strong. There was no noticeable sign of fatigue. I contend this colt will be competitive over 10F.
There are some positives associated with this colt:
He the oldest entrant in the field with a January foaling date. A likely physical maturity advantage.
He broke his maiden over 8F at CD as the 1/2 favorite in his 2nd start. Rich Strike and Street Sense score impressive wins at DC and returned to the scene to win the KD. Both Rich Strike and Epicenter broke their maiden at CD.
His winning time for maiden breaker was 1:35.99 some 8 months ago. His rider on the day was Joe Talamo. He was abord for the colt’s final breeze of 59 plus. In his post work comments he advised the colt’s trainer that he was felt likes a monster in comparison to when he won on him in October.
With 3 wins and 3 runner-up placings from 6 starts. This colt’s resume suggests dismissal is ill-advised.
I got an up close look at him at the SA Derby, he’s not large— but he is built like a bulldog! He should survive a bumping, and I pity the other horse!…
All I can say is that Steve will make a killing if lady luck is on his side in four days. If one of his longshots wins, I’ll be needing to significantly adjust my Derby Winner’s Profile! Of my five “finalists” (Catching Freedom, Fierceness, Resilience, Sierra Leone, Stronghold), CF has the best post position, though I was hoping for posts 5-15 for all of them.
I don’t need to make Derby day bets on CF and Stronghold as they were my only future wagers. I don’t wait a year to bet favorites at 5-2 or 3-1 in the Derby, so there won’t be action on Fierceness or Sierra Leone. A derby day bet on Resilience may depend on the track condition. His lone off-track effort doesn’t inspire confidence. But at odds of 20-1 or more, I’ll probably give him the benefit of the doubt. If not for the future wager, my Derby day bet would be Catching Freedom at 8-1 or better.
Because Stronghold has never raced on an off track, I checked some pedigree info. Ghostzapper was 2 for 2 on off tracks. He’s also a top sire of off-track runners. The dam, Spectator, and her sire, Jimmy Creed, never raced on off-tracks.
My greatest hopes are that there are no injuries or illnesses this week and no track vet interventions, and that the Derby is as cleanly run as possible with no mishaps.
I’m taking it easy and have not even looked at the PPs, but I do have some numbers (need organize them), I would go with Fierceness on top. The one I fear most at the moment if Fierceness is beaten is Forever Young. As far as Sierra Leone, Honor Marie and Catching Freedom are concerned, they will be somewhere under in my exotics.
I was disappointed when Sierra Leone drew the #2 post. I think the #2 is as bad as the #1. Chad Brown said that he had hoped Sierra Leone would draw somewhere in the middle.
However, it might not be the end of the world. Sierra Leone was always going to drop back and will still do so. It will all come down to whether or not Tyler Gaffalione can work out a trip without getting stopped in traffic. Maybe his odds can drift up to 9-2 or 5-1. That would be value to me. 3-1 too low. Just a Touch and Catching Freedom at 10-1 or 12-1 could end up being my play. I might even go for Domestic Product at 25-1 and shoot for the moon. I won’t decide until Friday night.
I love your betting strategy, Mr. Haskin. I might use your suggested exacta boxes myself. You are sharp as a tack. Which is more than I can say about myself. Good luck to you.
I hope to be reading about some nice wins after the Derby.
SL is a late runner (has a move a bit earlier than the other late runners), hence he will be able to save a lot of ground. The problem is traffic going around the final turn, he may not be able to get out. Keep in mind, most of the horses will be mid pack, that is where his problem may come uo.
Yes ideally it would be nice to be in the middle but either way SL is a closer. He will need some luck and hopefully find some running room. He will need to run like a sports car and switch lanes without stopping his momentum like Rich Strike and Mage.
In my opinion this group of 3 year olds are good and very competitive.
Tommy, SO in trouble with 2 post. No other way around the fact.
This year all the horses are doing well going into the derby.
TO Password looked good this morning with his breeze. Smooth runner and good size with muscle. Physically he looks good, hopefully mentally he will be settled by Saturday.
Domestic Product I will include him in the superfectas. This guy is an honest runner and is always in the mix. Been looking good in the morning.
Steve,
Great analysis of this race but just puzzled that you did not give Just Steel a mention. You saw what I saw at the end of the Arkansas Derby. His preparation for the KD Derby has been similar to that race . His last work should have been faster (even Lukas said so) but Lukas said his rider might have been a little timid because she worked another one of his horses a little too fast the day before. I would not leave this horse out any of the exotics. But besides this another great year of your perspective on this race.
I have been adding to the story since last night because I had to finish it before 6 pm. I added a graph on Just Steel in the tidbits..
Steve throwing it down. Love the angles you have taken.
I will key in some horses and box with other potential ones that will hit the superfecta.
Honor Marie, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Youn are my key players.
Will make final plays by Friday. Should have a better idea with weather.
I am waiting for that as well.
Steve…thanks so much for another season of Derby coverage. You are simply the best!
Thank you Tony
Steve
Thank you for your insights. As always a thorough in-depth look at why you made your choices .
I am shooting for the stars . I like Dornoch a lot . I am hoping he gets right back to his winning ways after finding out he doesn’t like to be in traffic. My other choices are Honor Marie , Catching Freedom and Resilience.
For sloppy track I will have to wait and see who is still running. The above horse will be played in exacta and trifecta.
Dornoch numbers are on par with most . He lost fans due to the failed rating experiment. Glad they tried it when they did after they had the points needed . Hope he can carry his speed longer than the rest of the speed . He has a win and a second in muddy or sloppy tracks but his mud numbers are not as good as others.
Thanks again for all that you do .
Chris L
Rain or shine Sierra Leone is the one I have the most confidence in to WPS. I’ll do some wheel bets with the Cox horses, Forever Young (homage to Mr. Dylan) and depending on the weather Mystic Dan, Endlessly. I also like small exacta boxes for joined-at-the-hip horses JustaTouch/Just Steel and Endlessly/Forever Young. Thank you so much for providing your unparalleled expert analysis.
I agree Tony. The WPS horse is Sierra Leone. He is the hardest horse to picture finishing out of the money
Thank you Steve. The Derby wouldn’t be the Derby without your insight and analysis.
Thank you Ken
Wow!
Thanks Steve for being on point and leading us down another Derby Trail! This is my 60th Derby. I have to thank my Dad for bring me in from a sandlot baseball game to watch the Derby in 64 at 8 years old. It changed my life! Thanks dad!!!! I finally made it to the Derby in 1980( Genuine Risk). As I walked in and got a program and a DRF I bought the Derby Green Sheet. In it was a little ditty and I break it out every year and I have to share it with everybody. Here goes. My horse has a chance If he stays sound throughout the race and If he’s not interfered with and If the race goes as figured and If the track is to his liking and If he doesn’t get to far outside and If his equipment doesn’t break and If he doesn’t get boxed in and If he doesn’t cast a shoe and If he doesn’t get disqualified and If the Man upstairs is with us all the way I’d say We Have a Chance! So again thanks Steve and good luck to all and all a safe trip and when the gates open we all have a chance!
Thank you Derek. And we all thank your father as well
Derek, your comment brought back a lot of happy memories. I too was very young in 1964 and it was my parents who got me into horse racing (my dad was a racing official and my mom a ‘demon handicapper’). I remember 2 May 1964 with great fondness. I had set my heart on Northern Dancer winning and my mom, not wanting me to be disappointed, gently pointed out the potential reasons he might not win, including him being little and Canadian. But as I was also both little and Canadian I didn’t see those as problems and got a thrill I’ve never forgotten when Northern Dancer came home the winner and in stakes record time too. Your handicapping ditty also made me smile and if it’s not too presumptuous I’d suggest one brief addition ‘and if my horse has a fighting spirit’, thinking of horses like Northern Dancer, Forego and John Henry who won because they had decided they were not going to be beaten.
We could put in a few more on that list. Alysheba’s Derby, Smarty Jones’s Preakness, Personal Ensign’s Distaff, Pluck’s Turf Juvenile and Queen Z Zenyatta her 1st Classic but I have to admit I was on Blame for the next years Classic but I did box the exacta. The old adage ” A Horse and Its Jockey is greater then the sum of its parts” is oh so true.
So true Derek. Zenyatta, Personal Ensign, Alysheba, Smarty Jones and on the subject of the Preakness, Afleet Alex’s Preakness among others definitely demonstrate that spirit. Congrats on having Blame. I went with Zenyatta in both and while she didn’t win the second the fight she showed was another example of that spirit. You’ve summed it up beautifully: ‘A horse and its jockey are greater than the sum of their parts’.
Exceptional considering at six older than all other horses in race.
Beholder
and if nothing stupid happens!!! Thanks for the great read.
Regardless who wins this Derby, it would be great to have a really good horse, or several, to enjoy for the rest of the year and beyond. The previous two crops have proven pretty forgettable. Neither KD winner has won again, and the 3yo champions, Epicenter and Arcangelo have been default choices. Two Phils was probably the one horse who could have been something. I see at least a half dozen 3 yos between this field and California exiles who could be something special. Sticking with Resilience for my bet.
Looks like a mud bowl type of day(s) for this KY Derby weekend. Therefore I will be playing the following colts based on the BRIS mud ratings.
A $1.00 exact a box consisting of Sierra Leone,Encino, Just a Touch, Just Steel.
Safe trips to all and let the betting begin.
Good luck Gary. It’s amazing how the weather can mess up 4 months of handicapping
I count 14!! horses who like to run within 2 lengths of the lead in the majority of their route races. You would think this is not so favorable for Fierceness, who is likely going to have to put pedal to the metal from the get go. Particularly with the 15, 16, 18, 19 all falling into this category.
1) Dornoch
3) Mystik Dan
5) Catalytic
6) Just Steel
8) Just a Touch
9) Encino
10) T O Password
12) Track Phantom
13) West Saratoga
15) Domestic Product
16) Grand Mo The First
17) Fierceness
18) Stronghold
19) Resilience
That leaves the closers…
2) Sierra Leone
4) Catching Freedom
7) Honor Marie
11) Forever Young
14) Endlessly
20) Society Man
Since there is so much luck involved in a 20-horse field, I like to use 2 horses in this race. Taking in everything I have seen and read, I think it comes down to Sierra Leone and/or Honor Marie this year.
Hi Steve
I’m somewhat surprised, and disappointed that Resilience was not mentioned in your Handicapping Analysis. However, just to be clear, it is not my place to question your betting selections. I like Mystik Can as well and will be using him underneath in my exotic wagers.
In my main superfecta p/w wager, I’ll key my top three selections on top in the first three slots, with ALL underneath in the fourth slot. In another super p/w wager, I’ll flip that over and key ALL on top, with my top three selections in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots.
I’ve got Pool 3 Futures wagers on Resilience and Catching Freedom, so there’s no point in betting any win wagers on those two on Derby Day.
Encino, at 20-1, looks very enticing. I like his pedigree, with Nyquist on top, out of a Bernardini mare, and he’s a Godolphin homebred. He has ascending Equibase Speed numbers, the latest being a 108 that he earned in the Lexington. His Beyer number is decent at 94, as is his Thoro-Graph at 2 1/2. On 4-27, he worked 5F in 59.20 (2/58) for Brad Cox., who appears to have this colt primed for a good effort in the Derby.
I’ll place a $50.00 win wager on Encino, and hope he remains at 20-1.
Good luck with your wagers.
I realized I had failed to mention him because I felt I had mentionedvtoo many horses already but I have added him to the story.
Steve, nobody does it better -thank you so much for all of your hard work!
Honor Marie is thriving and blossoming – he knows he’s good, he believe he’s the man
He definitely is a wise guy horse, but I think he’ll go off at maybe 15-1?
He finished 2nd in the slop at CD, in his second race, but I really hope we get a fast track. He’s sitting on a huge race, I think …
As a lifetime college hoops junkie, I would have never thought that I could look more forward to a sports release than I do the announcement of the NCAA Tourney brackets on selection Sunday. Over the past few years there is no doubt that I anticipate your final Derby Analysis even more than I do the brackets. Just like with the brackets though, it’s a bittersweet release. Even though I can’t hardly wait for it, it also means that we’re nearing the end of another Kentucky Derby Season.
Thanks for the ride Steve! It’s been a bit of an odd campaign, but I think it’s been my most enjoyable so far.
One question relative to your analysis. I’m a bit stuck on Resilience and I’m just wondering if it was the far outside draw that got you off him as a contender or have you seen something worrisome in his morning drills?
thanks so much Jim. It is sad in a way. I have added a graph on Resilience
Hi Steve,
I love Mystik Dan!!! He was my original Derby horse. Then I got scared he wouldn’t get the Derby distance being by Goldencents. Was Mystik Dan’s Thoro-Graph # in the Arkansas Derby(after all the trouble he encountered) good enough for him to win the Kentucky Derby?
I also was impressed with Encino working in company with Catching Freedom. I’ve read Catching Freedom isn’t the greatest “work” horse though, but puts it together in races. I have this feeling Catching Freedom might win. I read his jockey has only finished worse then 3rd (1x in 6 Derby tries.)
But what if Encino wins? No one is really giving him much thought. You are the only one mentioning him.
I hate to wish for a sloppy track, as it might hurt other horses chances that I like, Honor Marie and Forever Young and some others. Plus, I feel it will be less safe for all those horses running on a muddy track vs. A dry one. Thank You for not only giving a great race analysis, but also for always sticking by the horse(s) you believe can win no matter what! I wish I could be more like that! My original horses were Mystik Dan and Honor Marie. I really hope Forever Young runs well too.
My Superfecta is looking like this:
Catching Freedom
Mystik Dan
Fierceness
Honor Marie or Forever Young or Sierra Leone or Just a Touch or Just Steel…I can’t decide!
Steve:
Thanks very much for all of your work throughout the Derby prep season, including this column and all of the updates to come. The track condition will be very important in determining final wagering options. Currently, I am leaning on keying Catching Freedom and Just a Touch in all three spots in my trifectas, I am using Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, Stronghold, Encino and Mystik Dan along with CF and JAT, so (4,8)(2,3, 4,7,8,9, 18)(2,3,4,7,8,9,18) trifecta wheel. If I calculated correctly, $0.50 trifecta is $21 each way.
As far as my futures, I have the following odds:
Mystik Dan 91-1
CF 75-1
Resilience 126-1
Honor Marie 40-1
JAT 37-1
Grand Mo 226-1
Endlessly 400-1…which is why I love the futures pools!
Best of luck to you: I really hope you cash!!!
Correction: each way on the trifecta wheel is $42….so if either CF or JAT finish in the money, have chance at cashing trifecta.
I too, am hoping it’s a dry track on Saturday, I like Mystik Dan as well! That Oaklawn track might be a totally different sloppy surface, but they WILL bet him down if it’s sloppy…..
Thanks Steve for a great, almost impossible column to write with so many unknowns including horses with undesirable post positions, hot and cold races, and the true joker in the deck – the weather where no one really knows how many of these horses will run up to their potential. To me, this derby started off with such high hopes of real excitement with a group of horses that could be so much fun to watch. Now with the weather, assuming it rains and I get it’s part of the racing environment, this race could turn into something somewhat forgettable with a horse winning like Rich Strike who might not win a big race again. My excitement has been tempered by the threat of rain and if it does, my betting dollars just changed from 50s – 100s, to 10s and 5s. I truly hope the rain stays away and allows all of the racing fans to see an exciting, well contested race – horses running in a race that I think most of us want to see run – everyone at the top of their game, all running safely with no injuries or mishaps and a stretch run that could be memorable for everyone to see. I love the Derby and am excited…..just not as excited because of the chance of rain and hoping the race does not become one I just forget due to the elements changing everything.
Bill, I wouldn’t worry too much about rain for Saturday. I’ve just checked the latest weather forecast on the Weather Channel and the rain will be in the form of scattered showers @ 38% probability primarily during early morning. The track at Churchill is now one of the fastest drying tracks in the country. Partly sunny skies are expected for the afternoon. Therefore, the chances for a sloppy track are remote.
Did you happen to see the works show this morning? Forever Young looked sharp as he accelerated his stride in deep stretch upon a slight tap cue by his rider. He really is a push button horse. It was also heart warming to see the connection with the fans as Forever Young walked close to the fence greeting everyone. This horse not only has ability, but he also has tons of personality. There is one fresh concern for me, and I would like your opinion.
T O Password was also on the track with Forever Young. He seems like a nervous horse sweating between his hind legs and unlike Forever Young jumping back in alarm at the sound and motion of the fans on the fence. I’m beginning to dread the thought of T O Password being in stall 10 in the gate next to Forever Young. I don’t think that T O Password will handle the big crowd on Derby day and his nervous antics might well affect and upset our boy. Your thoughts?
Hi Steve,
Thank you for another season of your gracious sharing of Derby contender insight. Thank you also for creating this community of horse lovers attracted by your wisdom and humility.
I feel Sierra Leone will win by daylight (more than one length). I can also see him sweeping the Triple Crown (and I would feel this way even if the Belmont was run at 1 1/2 miles instead of this year’s 1 1/4 miles distance.)
Thanks for making me (a non-gambler) feel welcome here, Steve.
I hope everyone does well with their wagers.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Thank you very much Greg. It’s great to have you here.
Dornoch gate to wire