Kentucky Derby 151 Handicapping Analysis
If you are confused by this year’s Derby with its many possible scenarios, here are 3,900 words to confuse you even more. And if that isn’t enough confusion there are the usual weather concerns, which we just touched on briefly for now. But hopefully in the long run this will bring some enlightenment in helping clear up the picture. ~ Steve Haskin
Test Time: Will We Pass or Flunk Journalism?
By Steve Haskin
LATE UPDATE: I’m happy Baeza got in for a number of reasons, but obviously it leaves a gaping hole in the analysis, adding the p0ssible second or third betting interest in the field and eliminating the race’s most prominennt speed horse, thus changing the complexion of the race from two sides. It will not affect my win bets, but I will address its effect on my exotic bets and how it could affcct the race itself somtime tomorrow. What it does do regarding bets is move East Avenue up, not having to contend with his strongest pacc opponent Rodriguez. And I also now will give Burnham Square more consideration as a win bet if he is up around 15-1, as Baeza could take a lot of money.
2ND UPDATE FRIDAY MORNING: With Grande now out, all that is left of my analysis is to quote Emily Litella: “Neveeer mind.”
I have to start by saying that even with a strong favorite in Journalism, this may be the most perplexing Derby I can remember because there are so many “what ifs.”
What if Luxor Café’s electrifying turn of foot and explosive move that we saw in the Fukuryu Stakes is who he is and what we’re going to see on Saturday?
What if Final Gambit is as good on dirt as he is on synthetic, or better, and we’re going to see that same powerful stretch run we saw in the Jeff Ruby?
What if American Promise’s spectacular Virginia Derby romp in blazing-fast time was no fluke and he no longer is that gawky immature May foal and has finally grown into his 17-hands frame?
With so many speed horses, several of them major stakes winners, is this going to be a contentious and brutal pace or is one of them going to break free and establish a clear lead? There are three horses based on their speed and class capable of wiring the field if they should get loose on the lead.
With so many late closers, most of whom are capable of winning with a good setup, who will get the ideal trip and a clear run in the stretch?
All you have to do is find the answer to all these questions and you have a chance to figure this race out.
As you might know by now, we tend to focus our analysis on longshots and overlays. You’re not going to get any revelations about Journalism and Sovereignty that you haven’t gotten by now after 14 weeks, especially considering both colts have been looking super every morning, with Journalism more easy-going and Sovereignty more on the muscle.
So, let’s start off by going over a few of those longshots that I feel are worth a straight win bet and being included in the exotics. And believe me, I could add several more.
Grande (20-1) — Although I’m still not crazy about him having only three lifetime starts and having only one work in four weeks, and that one work at Keeneland, I am willing to overlook the first one because, yes, times have changed, and the second one on the assumption that is what Pletcher feels is best to win the Derby, and as someone close to the horse said, “In Todd we trust.” Perhaps, being so lightly raced and having a hard and eventful race in the Wood, it was decided to give him an extra week before working him. You had to love that one work, in which he rattled off steady eighths in :12, :12 1/5, :11 4/5, :12, and out another eighth in :12 2/5. But if you follow the Sheets, the big question with him on both Thoro-Graph and Ragozin is, after making a significant jump to a career top number in the Wood in only his third career start, will he move forward again or regress? He just doesn’t have enough of a foundation to know, so you have to decide if he is ready to win the Derby or will he be peaking in the Belmont.
He does have enough credentials, however, to take a shot that he is ready now to at least run a big race Saturday. It is not unusual for a runner-up to get a faster Thoro-Graph and Ragozin number than the winner due to ground loss, but Grande got a far better number in the Wood Memorial than the victorious Rodriguez on both speed figures, and you rarely see that when you get beat 3 ½ lengths. That is how much ground he lost going wide every step of the way, suggesting he is more professional than you would expect from such an inexperienced horse. And when a fast, classy loose-on-the-lead horse like Rodriguez closes his final three-eighths in :36 4/5, which is extremely fast for a closer, never mind a speed horse setting fast fractions, no one is going to catch him.
This horse can press the pace or come from off the pace, which he did in the Wood. After dropping back after getting forced wide, he was able to turn in a quick :23 4/5 third quarter to get back in contention. Many are touting Ballerina d’Oro in the Kentucky Oaks after her gutsy victory in the Gazelle, run in 1:50 3/5. The Wood that same day was run in 1:48.
Of all the powerfully built long-striding horses in the field, his stride, according to GPS, is the longest. Now he gets his regular rider John Velazquez back, after he missed the Wood to ride in Dubai. As for pedigree, he has 10 classic winners who won 19 classics in his first five generations. His female family has the same cross as Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin, and his sixth dam, Patelin, is the fifth dam of Into Mischief and Beholder. So, for such a lightly raced horse, he has a lot to recommend him.
Luxor Café (15-1) – He is the biggest “what if” of them all, and because of that and my respect for the Japanese horses and their training methods I cannot let this horse beat me, especially with the image of his rapid-fire acceleration and explosive power still fresh in my mind and a blistering final three-eighths. And both his Thoro-Graph and Ragozin numbers put him right up with our top horses. According to the latest updated Thoro-Graph numbers he is coming off a “3” pairing and is sitting on a big forward move. I also feel he is a bigger threat than his gutsy countrymate Admire Daytona because of running style and having beaten him twice already. But Admire Daytona is a tough horse in his own right and on an international scale. Also, how can you not love Japanese horses when you see Luxor Café work five furlongs, coming home in :11 4/5 and :24 3/5, and then, instead of going back to the barn to cool out like our horses do, he goes to the gate, along with Admire Daytona who also worked five furlongs, to school, standing in there for several minutes and never turning a hair. These are horses still on the muscle from working, but are so sensible and professional they can turn it off and just stand motionless in the gate. As a sidebar note on Luxor Café, put a blue shadow roll on him and you could mistake him for his sire American Pharoah. And this is the 10th anniversary of Pharoah’s Derby win. The Japanese are getting closer every year to winning the Derby and when they do I want to be more than just a spectator. And like Forever Young last year, if he doesn’t get an ideal trip and comes up a bit short there is always the exotics.
American Promise (30-1) – He will be huge longshot because his one big win in the Virginia Derby was on a lightning-fast track and around one turn. And he didn’t beat the best field. Also, he is one of seven speed horses and any win bets would be minmal and just a guess in case he is a new rejuvenated horse. I can understand using all that against him…if he won by a couple of lengths and his fractions and final time were very fast. But he won by almost eight lengths and his fractions of 1:08 1/5, 1:33 flat and final time of 1:46 /5 were insane and way off the chart. The only horse I ever saw who ran a faster mile and an eighth around one turn on the lead the whole way was Seattle Slew, who went in 1:45 4/5 as a 4-year-old and he ran his third quarter in :23 1/5 after a :47 half. American Promise ran his third quarter in :22 3/5 off a :45 4/5 half. And as for American Promise’s unheard of mile time, his trainer Wayne Lukas said, “If you’re running downhill it’s hard to run 1:33.”
We saw what happened last year when they dismissed Mystik Dan’s similar monster performance in the Southwest Stakes, in which he received the fastest Thoro-Graph number of any 3-year-old, because he had a perfect rail-skimming trip and it was on a sloppy tack, ignoring the sheer brilliance of the performance.
Thoro-Graph had American Promise jumping from an “8 ½” and a “7” to a “1,” putting him right up there with the fastest 3-year-olds in the country. That jump had bounce written all over it, but Lukas gave him seven weeks off, which normally would be a toss for me. However, he gave him three straight five-furlong works in :59 and change, then worked him seven furlongs from the gate in 1:25 1/5 after going his five furlongs in :57 4/5, and followed that up with a five-furlong work at Churchill Downs in :59 2/5 in the slop. I don’t know how good he is or if he can come home faster than he has been in his races and in his seven-furlong work, but I know he’s 17 hands and was always a big gawky immature colt, and you never know when a horse like that, especially a May foal, is going to suddenly mature mentally and physically and burst into national prominence. He is a total guess, but the payoff will be huge.
Two other live longshots are Turfway Park residents Final Gambit (20-1) and Chunk of Gold (30-1), both of whom have been ranked in my Derby dozen for several weeks. The former is another big “what if” horse and a guess. I gave my favorable impressions of him in the mornings in last week’s column, but the bottom line is he could be a star in the making, who is capable of winning the Derby if he can duplicate that same jaw-dropping stretch kick on dirt we saw in his last two starts on synthetic. We just don’t know, He has been moving powerfully in his works and gallops, but he won’t experience the kickback on dirt until the Derby. If you’re willing to gamble that we are going to see the same horse, you should be rewarded. Despite the questions, he is another I can’t let beat me or mess up my exotics, so I will take a minor plunge.
As for Chunk of Gold, I believe he is a serious horse. The readers of the Rankings know how much I have liked this colt since his second in the Risen Star and all the traffic he had to overcome, especially having to alter course at the head of the stretch with a tiring East Avenue backing up right in front of him and then making up a ton of ground late to get second. Then stretching out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby, he settled about three lengths off a testing pace and a :22 4/5 opening quarter. He put in a big move on the far turn to quickly pounce on the leaders showing a quick turn of foot, and although the strong late closer Tiztastic charged up alongside him, he matched strides with him until the sixteenth pole but gave way to a horse with far more experience. He still finished second and was the only horse within five lengths of that fast pace who was closing and still around at the finish. And the other late closer in the field, Instant Replay, who he held off for second, came back to win the Bathhouse Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park as a likely Preakness prep.
Chunk of Gold paired up career top numbers on Thoro-Graph and Ragozin in the Louisiana Derby and should make his big forward move in the Kentucky Derby. If it’s not a big enough move to win, it should at least give him a shot to hit the board and be part of the exotics. But to me he is definite win candidate at a big price with a 1 3/16-mile race under him.
OK, we’ve gotten the longshots out of the way and now it’s time to get down to the nitty gritty and sort everyone else out in order to come up with the main bets.
The Contenders
There s no sense taking a roundabout path to what should be an expected final destination. Everyone who has been reading the Rankings all year is well aware I have been unable to separate Journalism and Sovereignty. After watching these two magnificent-looking colts every morning I certainly have no reason to alter my thinking or displace them as the leaders of this group. If you want to know my initials thoughts on them you have to go back to my November 25th column when I listed my five under-the-radar horses to watch for the Kentucky Derby.
It doesn’t take an expert to see that Journalism is as close to the perfect racehorse as you are going to see. And how can you not have him as your top-ranked horse. He does nothing wrong, is the consummate profeessional, has both stamina and agility, can be placed anywhere on the track, overcome trouble, and still deliver a big closing punch. And although he has minimal markings you know it’s him the second you see him. He just has that distinctive look that stamps him as something special.
With all that said, if you are looking for a reason to beat the favorite, you can ask yourself the following questions: by running the fastest Thoro-Graph, Ragozin, and Beyer figures of the year two races before the Derby in the San Felipe and then regressing on all three in the Santa Anita Derby, did he peak too soon? Or was the regression much needed so he can now regroup and return to or improve on his big numbers? Some even wonder if his rough trip and having to run hard to catch maiden winner Baeza took a lot out of him, and they also wonder how he will make the transition from five-horse fields to a 20-horse field.
So you have the powerful visuals and stats vs. the questionable speed rating patterns. This horse has done nothing to convince me he is not special and I believe it will take a huge effort or bad racing luck on his part to beat him.
But from a value standpoint and having Sovereignty on my Derby radar screen since September after an eye-catching neck defeat to the promising Praetor in a one-mile maiden race, I have to lean toward him when asked to make a wagering pick. I was unable to separate them in the Rankings and it’s just as difficult now.
Here is what Sovereignty has going for him. Having as much respect for Bill Mott as I have had since the Cigar days, for him, as conservative as he usually is, to put Sovereignty in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes as a maiden tells you just how much he thought of this colt. Then he goes out and crushes his opponents by five lengths with a spectacular stretch run, so you know he loves Churchill Downs and that long stretch. And on top of that, the second- and third- place finishers – Tiztastic and Sandman – went on to win the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby, respectively.
When he won his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth after missing training due to a fever and most everyone, including Mott, feeling he was not even near 100 percent and needed the race, it raised him way up to the top of the class, at least until later that afternoon when Journalism blew Barnes away in the San Felipe. But remember, finishing a non-threatening fourth in the Fountain of Youth was Holy Bull winner Burnham Square, who would go on to win the Blue Grass Stakes. So Sovereignty has already beaten the Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Blue Grass winner.
Although Sovereignty was then beaten by a much-improved Tappan Street in the Florida Derby, it did not diminish him at all in my eyes. Tappan Street is a gifted horse with tactical speed who just got first jump on him and might have been second choice in the Derby if he hadn’t been injured before the race. And Sovereignty had already scored his big win earlier than expected.
From a speed ratings standpoint, Sovereignty has the best Sheets pattern of any horse in the field. One thing many of the Sheets followers look for is a horse who pairs a career top, as they usually will make a big forward move off that. Burnham Square, Sandman, Grande, and Final Gambit all paired up their career high numbers two races before the Derby and all made their big forward move the race “before” the Derby. Sovereignty paired up his career high number the race before the Derby on both Thoro-Graph and Ragozin and is now expected to make his big forward move “in” the Derby.
The Pace
Obviously, the key to the race will be the pace – how fast will it be, how contentious will it be, and will anyone manage to get a clear lead? We know by now that Rodriguez has the ability to set a strong pace and close very fast off it, making him extremely tough to catch. We know Citizen Bull turned in an amazing five-furlong work at Churchill Downs, going in :59 1/5 despite being taken very wide at the top of the stretch and doing it easily, as if to suggest we’re going to see a return of the champ. We know how fast American Promise is and what blazing fractions he can set. We know that Neoequos and Admire Daytona are tenacious on the lead and have no quit in them.
What we think we know, but may be wrong, is that East Avenue is another need-the-lead horse. I believe this horse, a former No. 1 on the Rankings, is much classier than people think and only set the pace in the Blue Grass because he was gunned out of the gate like a Quarter-Horse, needing a hard race after basically having raced only a half-mile in the past six months. To turn back almost the entire field the length of the stretch and then get nipped by a nose at the wire was very impressive over a deep and tiring track. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stalk the pace and be even more formidable a foe than he was at Keeneland.
The Works
We went over the works and training in general in the last column. I have always had a great deal of respect for Burnham Square and have had him ranked as high as No. 4. But even with his Blue Grass score he sort of got lost in the shuffle, being just a nice steady stretch runner who just barely beat a horse in the Blue Grass who desperately needed a race and looked as if he was going to get inhaled at the quarter pole. But the Burnham Square I’ve seen at Churchill Downs on a daily basis is a horse who is trying very hard to tout himself and convince everyone he will be wearing a blanket of roses on Saturday. Even in his gallops, with his head bowed down to his belly, his exercise rider has to treat the reins like they are attached to a bottle of nitroglycerine, knowing what could result from one little move. If you just go by the amount of energy this unassuming little gelding is giving off you will have to ignore him at your own risk.
Another reason for betting him is one of the major Sheets companies has him sitting on a winning race, with his big forward move expected in the Derby after pairing up career top numbers. Another move forward, even a small one, can win the Derby.
The other horse you can’t help but notice in the morning is Coal Battle, who we also discussed in last week’s column, describing him as a wind-up toy. He just does whatever you want him to. Whether you like him to win or not, he should be in position to use is quick turn of foot and make his presence felt by the head of the stretch.
The Deep Closers
We have discussed several of them earlier, but good luck trying to separate Sandman, Tiztastic, Publisher, and even Flying Mohawk, all of whom should all be closing fast, as well as the aforementioned Sovereignty, Burnham Square, and Final Gambit, especially if the pace is as hot as many predict. With the weather now looking uncertain, keep an eye out for a late update on Friday or Saturday morning on horses who could appreciate an off track. We will say right now that if it is wet and you are looking for a Rich Strike-like bomb, don’t overlook Flying Mohawk. He could really move up on an off track.
Slop
I haven’t studied the slop form yet because of the ever changing forecast other than to single out Flying Mohawk as a potential bomb. What stood out to me in his pedigree is that his sire Karakontie’s fourth dam is by Prove Out, who scored one of the greatest upsets in history by easily defeating Secretariat in the Woodward Stakes run over a sloppy track, and in doing so ran the second fastest 1 1/2 miles in Belmont Park history.
I had looked at Grande earlier because he is my main win bet and feel it should be added now just in case. So if the track is sloppy, just know that Grande’s sire Curlin romped in the slop in the BC Classic. His broodmare sire War Front ran once in the slop and won by 11 1/2 lengths. War Front also won on a “good” track by 8 lengths and his son War of Will ran once in the slop and won by 5 lengths and another son Omaha Beach ran twice in the slop, winning the Arkansas Derby and breaking his maiden by 9 lengths. Grande’s tail-female family has the exact same cross (a son of His Majesty out of a Stage Door Johhny mare) as Go For Gin who won the Kentucky Derby in the slop.
The Bets
You already know that Sovereignty and Journalism are my two main picks. And in any other year I would love Rodriguez and East Avenue, but there is so much speed in this race, including the 2-year-old champ who looks to be back on is game. Because my head is spinning trying to sort out possible wagers, I have decided before giving my longshot and overlay win bets, which I’m sure you can figure out by now, along with my feeble attempt at exactas and trifectas, I will start off with several bets that have some logic to them, which I am putting in separate categories that require no thought in order to alleviate any further strain on my brain. So here they are for what they’re worth:
The Street Sense Pace Meltdown Trifecta Box – Box the 1, 2, 3 finishers of the Street Sense Stakes – Sovereignty, Tiztastic, and Sandman – in the hope of a pace meltdown. If there is one, they will all be flying late. You can also play it safer and go with an exacta box several times.
The Runner-Up You Can Retire Trifecta or Superfecta Box – Just box the runners-up of the Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Blue Grass – Grande, Publisher, Chunk of Gold, and East Avenue. The last five Derby winners (excluding September winner Authentic) lost their previous start. These horses will be coming from everywhere on the track. You can go with an exacta box instead and still make big bucks.
OK, now for the relatively sane bets. I’m going to take a shot with Grande as my main win bet even though he may need another race before firing his best shot. I also have to go with Luxor Café unless he winds up the big bet down horse, and Chunk of Gold. Also the other “what if” horse Final Gambit if his odds warrant the gamble. I won’t decide until Saturday if I am betting American Promise to win. He would have to be really enticing odds.
My five-horse trifecta box will consist of Journalism, Sovereignty, Grande, Chunk of Gold, and Burnham Court. And a box of the first four with Luxor Café.
I have yet to decide if it’s worth betting exactas. What I would be leaning to is Journalism and Sovereignty each over Grande, Chunk of Gold, Final Gambit, Luxor Café if the price is right, and yes Flying Mohawk, whose numbers actually are competitive, especially if the track is off.
Once again, any wagering updates and analysis changes due to track condition or a scratch and the addition of Baeza will be posted Saturday morning as a new opening paragraph. Oh, yes, if Baeza gets in, “Muddah Faddah, kindly disregard this letta,”
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I remember Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(IRE) who DNF in our Derby, yet went on to conquer some of the biggest and most presitigious races in the world, including winning the Dubai World Cup 2x.
Then there was Gun Runner , trained by Asmussen, who ran 3rd in the KY Derby, yet went on to become HOY and Eclipse Champion Older Male.
Some horses don’t get really good until year 4, if they are properly managed.
Look forward to seeing some of the Derby participants’ future victories.
Yes, like Cigar.
As a nearly lifelong South Floridian and Gulfstream Park neighbor, I was overjoyed by Sovereignty’s win. It was so very disappointing, though, to see the scratch of Tappan Street. The Florida Derby continues to be THE Kentucky Derby prep race. For all you Cal fans, the Santa Anita Derby is not too far back in second — just like in Saturday’s race! I sure do hope that Sovereignty and Journalism meet again in Baltimore.
I still like Coal Battle the best, watching the early part of the race, his stride was perfection. Should someone want to make a professional video of a horse running, they should contact Lonnie Briley. I might give him a nickname, The Model.
I was impressed by Sovereignty, but was never a true fan. He seems a lot like Sierra Leone, and the two Derbys were similar. Sovereignty might be a bit faster and had no problem running straight. I thought he hung in the Florida Derby. I was disappointed in East Avenue, will look for him to do better, maybe at a shorter distance. I thought Journalism got tired at the end. I realize that might upbraid some fans or bettors, but you were the ones who hyped him and he lost. I don’t think the wet track or any individual trips had much effect on any runs and never thought the mud would be a deciding factor. I’ll look for Tiztastic to get more consistent and faster.
I have my Preakness horse and a $20 futures bet at around 50/1, someone who wasn’t in the Derby. If Coal Battle goes I’ll bet both. I just wish my bet could go to charity rather than someone betting against me.
Alot if good points in your comments.
EDIT: of
Thanks.
You’re welcome.
It is amazing how formful the Derby trail and its running have been this year.
The Derby unfolded as expected by many of us.
The six horses that were supposed to dictate the early pace did it in exactly the expected orderat the 5/8: Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Owen Almighty, American Promise, Admire Daytona, and East Avenue following in 6th.
The deep closer were also positioned as expected by the first quarter: Publisher, Sovereignty, Tiztastic, Sandmand and Final Gambit last.
The rest, also as anticipated, were in midpack in the backstretch.
Baeza was farther than expected at the half mile (15th) though … clearly hindered by the outermost post position.
What I did not expect though was that the two pacesetters leading the pack at the mile mark were going to be Owen Almighty and Neoequos.
Junior Alvarado was very smart, able and lucky taking Sovereignty to ride the rail around the first turn … it was a winning move in my view.
It is worth noting that Baeza was very green in the homestretch drifting out to the 9th or 10th path bothering Final Gambit and then lugging in abruptly before Prat could take aim at Journalism.
Despite all his zig-zagging Baeza ran the fastest final 1/16-mile (in 12.47 seconds).
Final Gambit had improved seven positions in the homestretch before being carried out by Baeza in the final furlong. Still Final Gambit finished in 12.64.
Sovereignty finished his last 1/16 in 12.71 and Journalism in 12.92.
It was a great Derby indeed and it will be even more exciting to see the top sophomores in the upcoming Stakes…
* last 1/8 mile (1 furlong)
Great post race review Nelson. Definitely a race that exhibited current racing form. Nice price on Sovereignty for the win also. Should be a fun and interesting campaign the rest of the year for this division.
Thanks kmi … after 8 months following the young horses develop we can say that we were pretty sure about how the Derby was going to unfold. We knew that the speed would not hold, we knew which horses would finish running fast, I even anticipated that Brian Hernanez Jr. would cause problems to the horses to his left while rushing to rail… Journalism was blocked twice by that move.
We knew that the money bet on Render Judgment was completely off base. Sandman’s odds should not have been lower that that of Sovereignty…
Luxor Cafe was disappointing but he was knocked early by Journalism taking the rail in haste. I did not expect Journalism to be strugling on the mud though…
Many things we anticipated happened … That is our advantage against all those casual horse bettors on Derby day.
Sharp observations about how formful the Derby was, thanks.
It seemed like all the A,B, C’s of handicapping applied, like closers having the advantage in a hot pace, if they’re good enough, which one of them was. Also, the small fields in California didn’t have closers, so Journalism was introduced to a new aspect of racing.
Andcongrats to Steve and The Pro Vet–a couple if pros…Sovereignty was already IN—when he ran in The Florida Derby, he did not need to win, Bill had him pointed to The Derby—I was high on Journalism but there was one horse I feared, and he got us! I won nearly $700 on the race, which made me a winner, on the weekend, as I was not so good on the undercards….but this year it looked to me like thise three—really those two—the Belmont should be a great field and card….not sure about The Preakness, I think Mott will run, he will chase Rodriguez home—I like speed, in The Preaknessn but the Derby winner is a good horse, and Bill had him fresh—I think they will go—no 7,90–1 this time! The 14,000,000 follower guy who touted Sandman helped the price!
Let’s talk about the best race on the Derby card. The 8th race on Saturday, the 7F Chicago Downs Stakes(Won by Mindframe), is in my top 5 most exciting stretch runs I have ever seen.
That was one helluva field and they did not disappoint. What a race. We may not see a field that stacked and a race that competitive the rest of the year until the Breeders Cup.
I hadn’t seen that one on Saturday. Thanks for the tip! Just watched it–a terrific finish!
That was something else, wasn’t it?! I always like to follow and pull for a few geldings in racing. I was proud of Book’em Danno. Mindframe is coming back looking like the man!
arlingtonfan, “World Horse Racing” on YouTube did us a solid by compiling all the G1 replays for the weekend into one video, and they used Churchill’s footage. No overheads to be seen! The Alysheba (G2) isn’t in that one, but all of Churchill’s replays are making their way onto YouTube: their handle is “twinspires.”
Seeing Sovereignty winning the Derby made it more satisfying having identified him as a genuine Derby horse rigth after his debut on August 24 at Saratoga. The majority in this forum (who I considered great analysts) were very impressed by Sovereignty’s physique, running style and his gallop-outs when he was still a maiden; Steve was steadfast stressing the superior traits of Sovereignty since September… So, winning the Street Sense in Stakes record time, as the first maiden to do it was just a confirmation of his tremendous prowess. The betting public acknowledged his great potential by making him the odds-on favorite in the Street Sense Stakes on October 27th. We have talked enough about his commanding win in the FoY and auspicious Florida Derby already…
Sovereignty has proven yet again that visual assessment and understanding training trends are very important handicapping tools… especially when following young horses in their wonderful journey to the Triple Crown.
I’m not as high on Rodriguez as some other people. He’s decent. Good in fact. I don’t see him in the same class as the Derby top-3. Rodriguez would have a freshness factor going for him in the Preakness though.
I think he romps
Preakness Day kicks off at 10:30am. That’s 7:30am for our friends on the westcoast.
“Breakfast at the Preakness”.
If Baeza and/or Journalism were to skip the Preakness, they would be double-tough in the Belmont if Sovereignty runs in Baltimore. In that scenario, I would be very tempted to jump ship off of my money horse, Sovereignty.
I really don’t think that these 3 horses are separated by that much. The rest of them are in a different league. No offense.
The last I heard, Baeza was going to skip the Preakness, while Journalism was still under consideration.
I’ll “pass” Journalism….bumped both sides, could have been shuffled way back, but for Rispoli’s bullying his way thru….was passed by Sovereignty—who was best—I recall Summer Squall being passed, when Unbridled ran one heckuva Derby…..Squall got him in the Preakness, and Journalism has a big win or two in his future—so does Sovereignty! He looked incredible the day after! I don’t know if Mott has trump over Godolphin, regarding his running in The Preakness—Edwin Gregson shocked everybody, when he brought Gato Del Sol home…Swaps was brought home to run against older horses and big purses. ..Spend A Buck passed, for the money……it’s still notable fir a Derby winner to skip The Preakness, and I think they’ll run—Mott brought a fresh colt to The Derby….
Thinking Coal Battle would be perfect for Met Mile.
I agree! Owen Almighty if he comes out shipshape, too.
The Woody Stevens should also be interesting.
Coal Front has been a terrific sire, which pleases me to no end
Coal Battle would have to lock horns with the likes of Raging Torrent, Mindframe, Fierceness and White Abarrio. Tall task to ask of CB IMO!
Agreed. Plenty of money to be made for 3yos in minor derbies. They are simply not fast enough yet to deal with those top older horses. No Conquistador Cielos or Holy Bulls here.
Coaly could also try the Matt Wynn, then the Haskell.
Owen is probable for Woody Stevens, which looks like a good one.
I checked some equibase speed figures today and noticed that Goal Oriented ran a 109 in the third race yesterday while Sovereignty ran 103 in the Derby. Does anyone know if Goal Oriented would qualify for the Preakness?
He doesn’t need to qualify! His connections can just enter him.
Belmont maybe….
Other than the top two finishers i’m giving props to the next 3. Baeza ran great from the 19 hole in the slop to finish 3rd. Final Gambit might have finished 3rd if he was mid pack turning for home. Owen Almighty i think he outran his odds in the derby. Considering he was entered, then defected out the back in, ran the best of them all. A starter from the 18 hole. An R type runner that far out i figured he was dead turning from home. Biggest disapointment…Sandman / Coal Battle…JMO
Hello CC!
I hope the top 4 go back in the Preakness. Final Gambit would have been third if that other horse had not bore out and got in his path, forcing him to adjust his own path. Final Gambit might appreciate a dry dirt track, but all in all he was quite the speedster coming down the stretch with good acceleration. I had Sovereignty and Journalism and Final Gambit in my tri combos, but not Baeza, boohoo.
Final Gambit is going to think that’s how every start works. In the Jeff Ruby, Cali Burrito did him dirty the exact same way! Good thing he didn’t mind being at the back.
Baffert will probably get him ready for the Summer Classics and rely on Rodriguez for the Preakness. But any attention Goal Oriented is good for the sport. Check out his breeding/pedigree. He has zero classic crosses in his lineage. But Classic breeding one at a time everywhere. Super odd with today’s breeding techniques.
His Tru Nicks breeding grade is an F, which makes this even more interesting.
I love when Tru Nicks is wrong, so count me in following this one.
Sure Greg. Baffert had a $3.2 mil horse in his barn. How did that work out?
So the Wood one/two were scratched…I know a trainer scratch can run…can a vet scratch run I. in The Preakness?..
I don’t think so, going by what one of the commentators of yesterday’s races said. The same rule kept Forte out of the Preakness a couple of years ago.
Speaking of the Wood Memorial….it gets panned by many….not by me! Recently it produced Early V who won The Preakness…and the Belmont winner….(cannot recall the name–a Pletcher horse)….I heard and interesting note, about Pletcher…66 Derby horses and 10 Preakbess…..
Also had a BC Classic winner in Vino Rosso
I hope it doesn’t get downgraded. NY racing is important to the sport.
Steve’s great piece about Bridlewood as a hotbed of superior horses (week 13) was a great prelude to the Derby outcome. It was funny he saying that if Sovereignty, Journalism, or East Avenue were to win he would not have a recap story anymore…
Steve usually covers the human dimension surrounding the victory, and the upbringing of Sovereignty and Journalism was pretty much touched upon in his article entitled “Is There a Bluegrass in the Kentucky Derby?”
Of course, there is always pertinent to comment about how the Derby unfolded and which horses were the most hindered by the stampede on the marsh.
Fortunately horse racing is very often full of nice stories. I.e. the quadruple Classic feat of Godolphin could be a good opportunity to see one of Steve’s eye catching headlines.
The last minute entering of Baeza might be a good topic around the qualifying rules… BTW I was impressed by Steve being sure that Baeza would finally get in… Puca being close to make history in the Derby is another amazing story …
Anyway, I am quite sure Steve’s recap of the 2025 Kentucky Derby would be very interesting a per usual…
*will be
Excellent Steve! Nice job!!
Saudi Crown and Mystik Dan put in a good one in at Oaklawn yesterday. Such a beautiful day there. What a contrast! Also a contrast was Saudi Crown going three-quarters in 1:11.43, and the Derby at 1:10.78.
I have a question, and don’t have the energy to dig for the answer with a daunting May calendar of my own. Hope someone here just knows. With Grande’s vet scratch, he goes onto the vet list, correct? Does he have time to get off of it for the Preakness, with the required wait and then observed work/exam?
Bob might have been the fox, to trainer scratch Rodriguez. It’s my thinking that he will not have any problem with Preakness eligibility.
Katy from what I read it was BB’s decision to scratch Rodriquez because of the stone bruise.
Think you are correct about Grande.
That was a really good race between Saudi Crown and Mystik Dan.
All in all Mr Repole did have a good two days. I was so happy for Fierceness.
Now we wait to see who goes where for the Preakness and Belmont!
Thank you, Lynda!
It was great to see so many of the older horses, including Fierceness and Mindframe, doing so well! So exciting to have returning stars, and seeing them looking good and running well.
I would guess that NY is a bigger goal at this point for Grande anyway. Not even sure if they’re interested in the Preakness. I just couldn’t figure up the timing. May should be renamed “Mad May!”
I, too, think Rodriguez’s stone bruise ought to be fine by 5/17. I think it was smart for BB to make the choice he made for several reasons.
Hoping Journalism also goes in the Preakness. Sovereignty was clearly best, but the Preakness should be earned, and Journalism and Rodriguez would fill that role. Assuming S goes in the Preakness.
So Alvarado exceeded the whip rule and could be looking at losing 10% of his winnings and a little suspension but haven’t read anything about Martin Garcia and his recklessness on a sloppy course and endangering his fellow riders and horses. Who is protecting who?
Totally agree with you, Garcia should get days for that move, same thing he did to Bayern years ago. It is tough to see JR get reprimanded and Garcia not even mentioned.
I meant on Bayern.
I’m not into betting, but I love your analysis for its insights on the horses and the race.
Godolphin won the 2000 Guineas, the Ky Oaks, the Ky Derby and this morning they won the 1000 Guineas with undefeated Desert Flower.
For the racing historians, has that ever happened before? I know it has been the first time since 1952 that an owner has won both the Derby and the Oaks.
I have had the greatest respect for the Godolphin operation and their breeding program and their own funding of their aftercare program.
Just my opinion of course but the key yesterday in the Derby was stamina, stamina, stamina.
Once again Steve you were spot on in your analysis of the Derby. The manager of Godolphin (sorry, Beaman maybe) mentioned the connection of Sovereignty and Journslism at Bridlewood that spoke of in this post above. No one has their finger on the pulse of horseracing like you Steve.
I was thrilled with the results yesterday. Just could not back away from Sovereignty. Through all the yings and yangs during the run up and preps I kept coming back to him to win in my mind.
And Baeza, I expect great things from him in the near future.
Puca, what a mare! We need an Eclipse for these mares!
Wish Coal Front had finished higher. His jockey said he had to check twice during the race which might have slowed his momentum. Lonnie, thank you for everything. There are races to be won this coming year by Coal Front, so hang in there.
As far as I know all the horses came back safe and sound both days with the exception of Sorcerer’s Silver trained by Dale Romans. His surgery is scheduled for today.
In closing, I do not think this is a weak crop at all. The future looks bright for all of them.
Happy Sunday everyone.
Well said, Lynda!
If you see updates on the Romans horse on socials, will you let us know? You’re always plugged in with those!
Have a great Sunday!
Thank you Katy and will do if I hear about SS. Hoping for the best for him.
From reports this morning all the horses seem to have come out of the Derby in good order.
Sovereignty does have, per Mr Mott, a scrape on his right fetlock about 4 inches long. Not concerned at this point but do have to be cautious about any cut or scrape on the legs.
I ought to send them a congratulatory jar of Silver Sulfadiazene.
The Preakness has lost its mojo….I’m not sure if anybody from The Derby is going…..WHO…..wants to support First Street Racing/Belinda Stronach?..
Sovereignty and Journalism are undecided. 1st is on their way out, soon a nonprofit MD org. will run it. Decoupling was shelved in Florida, at least for now, good news. That track is on a beautiful and well served site, too bad it’s so valuable, have long wished a local owner had Gulfstream.
You do have to wonder if there is a statement being made beyond the usual attrition. As far as the horses go, that had to be about as tiring a Derby as could be imagined: cavalry charge in the slop, 6F in 1:10&change, and several enduring a lot of bumping.
Looks like Godolphin won all four classics this weekend. I forgot to tape the 1000 Guineas, but it appears (from the cryptic info on the DRF stakes results page) that Desert Flower, a Godolphin homebred trained by Charlie Appleby, took the race.
Here’s a question for everyone. To what extent do you think Baeza’s pedigree will increase the pressure to have him run in the Preakness and thereby give his mom, Puca,
the chance to become the dam of winners of all three TC races?
Wherever he goes from here, I’m excited to see what he does next.
Never mind–according to Paulick Report, John Shirreffs says Baeza isn’t going to the Preakness, though it sounds like the Belmont is an option.
Smart choice.
That’s good, I think. Their responsibility is to Baeza, not Puca (even though she is the cool mom). Plus, this is the year to get your Belmont at 10F… unless we think they’ll give us a switcheroo going forward. Baeza looks very much capable of 1.25.
Baeza is a Belmont horse all the way….
Baeza sure did gallop out ahead of Journalism with alacrity.
I watched APharoah12’s pre/race footage, and it was neat to see which trainers walked over with their horses. John S. was with Baeza.
The paddock footage was cool. I like looking at legs and gaits, and that was more difficult in the mornings because of wraps. I was impressed with the amount of bone of the 1-2-4 finishers. You could go to war on those three. Baeza is a little finer, and of course Owen is just a mite of a thing in the first (5th, actually) place.
OK, on to the Preakness and the Belmont. We will see how much the muck and mud influenced the results of the Derby. I cannot imagine running is such a mess. Thanks to all for commentary and to Steve for his assessments.
Congrats to everyone who cashed yesterday, especially you Bill, your tenacity has payed off and your ship came in. Thank you to Steve Haskin for providing Thorough-Graphic numbers that paired up for the winner who was sitting on go. I do have one negative thing to say today and that is for one jockey not to be nameless, Martin Garcia who rode as though he were riding the quarters at Los Al and sawing off every horse to his right and moving into the five path, forcing Neoequos into the six path. That was a reckless and dangerous thing to do which could have left someone or someone’s dismounted and loose horses in such a big race. If he is not handed down a suspension then why do we have rules? And last but not least, I’d like to thank God for not allowing Bob Baffert anywhere close to the winner’s circle. Hats off to Sovereignty and all of his connections.
Bob’s loaded remember?
👍
Thanks Dominic.
Thanks, Rob
Yes indeed, “tenacity” does payoff in the long run. Never say die.
Once again, Steve was spot on, ranking Sovereignty and Journalism evenly for several weeks. I threw in Baeza in on one of my supers, based on his “0” Thoro-Graph number that he received in the Santa Anita Derby.
Bottom line, I own Steve a lot for his input on Thoro-Graph numbers, and his Weekly Rankings on this year’s Derby trail.
Good luck moving forward.
The turf course at Churchill held up very well and the main track played pretty fair. It was the best time I ever had when playing on a wet track day.
The California Horses ran very well. I hit with one of them. I figured that they would have trouble on both the turf and main track because they never run on rainy days. Wrong!
I dislike the NBC coverage for many reasons. The worst thing is that after the post parade, NBC goes to what feels like a zillion commercials before coming back for the horses loading into the gate. Why can’t we watch the horses on the track? We know the answer. They probably get a pretty penny for those commercials when all the viewers are on the edge of their seats waiting for the race to start.
I also don’t like their odd camera angles while the race is running. If they want to show overhead shots so badly, wait until after the race and show them on replay.
I have been following the Derby since 1973. The year of you know who. But only betting the Derby since “76 or ’77. I’ve had some nice scores along the way. But also lots of losing. The Derby is a hard race to hit. But after 48 or 49 years of betting the Derby, I had my biggest win ever yesterday. No brag, just fact. The reason that I bring it up is that it was Steve Haskin ranking those 2 horses tied on top for so long that gave me the confidence to make the right moves. I landed on Sovereignty. I kept going back to a post that I made when I said that Sovereignty gets on them quick. And he got on Journalism quick after Journalism had taken the lead.
On to the Preakness. My guess is that Sovereignty will meet an entirely new cast of characters in Baltimore. That the Derby also-rans will wait for the Belmont at Saratoga.
Congratulations, Tommy! I totally agree with you about the camera angles. What’s with the bird’s-eye view? Viewers can’t identify any of the horses from that angle.
Agree with you both. They have the sight lines for a really good view – not like for the Saudi races, where I don’t think they can get a good shot until the stretch. Why do that? Someone just in love with a drone?
All I can say is…YAY! Yay for a fascinating derby trail made even sweeter by the running commentary of the greatest racing writer of our time; for an always engaging, often informative, and sometimes prickly conversation; for seeing all horses and riders finish without apparent injury; and for a result that thoroughly made sense and gave many of us a decent profit and an elevated heart rate from the final turn to the wire.
See you next year!
There was nothing not to loke about this year’s Derby. The horses came back safe and the best horse won. Some of us made money, some didn’t, but it was a great day for racing. I’m happy that most of the comments below reflect that spirit. Thanks to the horses who competed.
I would be remiss if I didn’t add my kudos to those of my fellow readers in saluting our colleague, Bill Dawson, for his significant score in this year’s Derby. Your success is well deserved, Bill, with all the work and dedication you put into constructing your bets, futures and race day alike. Congrats, Bill.
p.s. I’m sure the wife is glad that she allowed you to pursue your passion in view of the lucrative results. lol
Thanks, Dewey
I spent a considerable amount of time, pouring over pedigrees, past performances, workouts, connections and what have you. And yes, I appreciate the time and space that my wife affords me to pursue my horse racing interests.
Best of luck moving forward, Dewey.
Whew! I don’t know about the rest of youse guys, but I’m exhausted. This Derby has left me limp with high anticipation and a thrilling outcome. It’s all due to the marvelous work that our guru, Steve, has put into this year’s edition of the Derby Rankings. Steve was spot on with Nos. 1 and 2 filling in the two top spots in the race. I cashed in on the win, exacta and Oaks/Derby double to show a modest profit.
My winnings would have been more substantive had I used Baeza in the trifecta. Alas, I put the dreaded “wise guy” label on him and left him off my bets. I am hard pressed to remember a racehorse who blossomed as quickly as Baeza has. He will be a major force to contend with in the months ahead.
Finally, a most profound THANK YOU, Steve, for sharing your gift of writing and love of the “sport of kings”. We are all blessed to have you cross our collective paths.
Now i’ve got to take me a long nap. Someone wake me up in time for the Preakness…. wouldn’t want to miss what Steve has to say about the second jewel in the crown. Zzzzzz!
Impressive on the money analysis Steve. Great job!
Steve Haskin is the best.
Nelson, Ms. Blacktype, Bill, arlingtonfan: really nice wrap ups!
I am so happy for my high school principal, Dan Pride. He used to go up and work with John Servis during the summer. He left education to work in KY at Jonabell, and never looked back. He and his wife Beth (who taught me British Lit.) always believed in my abilities, and encouraged me to pursue my dream of working with horses. Dan has worked his way up over the years with Godolphin, with a short break working at the sales. I am thrilled that he is a part of this thing today.
A slightly overlooked success for Godolphin today was Spirit of St Louis’s stakes win: he was sired by one Medaglia D’Oro.
Steve, your work on this one has been incomparable. Basically calling the stretch duel between these two wonderful horses is incredible.
I was thrilled that Baeza proved he belonged (tough trip and all), along with Final Gambit, and the very game Owen Almighty. Hope Brian Lynch can rest easy tonight: they should be so proud of that little pistol. The only one I really loved that couldn’t was Coal Battle.
Lastly, hats off to Greg Blasi. How he kept Ricky looking like a movie star all day is beyond me!
Nice wrap up yourself, Katy!
Thanks Katy… I am also very happy to see Godolphin finally being prominent in the Triple Crown series…
With Good Cheer Medaglia d’Oro is only the second stallion (since 1885) to sire three winners of the Kentucky Oaks… it is amazing how he has maintained prominence for 16 years in 4 continents on every surface… and still going strong at 26.
I am pretty sure Medaglia d’Oro will be a Classic broodmare sire as well…
Also impressed by the effort of Owen Almighty … and as for Coal Battle he will be winning other good Stakes down the road…. same thing can be said for Burnham Square and East Avenue…
Keep up your excellent work Katy..
Thank you, Katy! And how exciting that your high school principal is now with Godolphin!
I know, arlingtonfan! He’s been with them for a lot of years now – their number 2 in America, if I’m not mistaken.
I rode shotgun with Pride driving on a college tour trip, using a couple of 15 passenger vans. I read him his DRF and Bloodhorse articles – and the map – on the way. (I did get sent to the back of the van on the last day because I had strep throat and a 103.5 temp.) It was a memorable trip!
He encouraged me to take as many AP sciences as I could, and he was certain I would pass (even when I wasn’t). He knew I had a goal and was gunning for it, and I think the fact that he was working in that direction himself made him want a kid like me to go for it, too! His wife, Beth, pushed me just as hard in English.
I haven’t seen them since 2004-5, but I can’t thank them enough for what they did for me. Just goes to show the difference good teachers make for kids, and that when you lift up the people around you, you’ll be paid back in kind! So happy for them!
Good teachers have an enormous positive impact on students’ lives. A friend of mine, a fellow racing fan who passed away last fall, was one such teacher. I know she was looking down from above cheering the horses on yesterday–hopefully with a better view than that given by NBC’s idiotic “here’s the race as seen from the top of Mt. Everest” camera!
It’s so hard to lose those people from our lives. My condolences on losing your friend. It is a comfort and brings hope to think of them having the very best!
Yes, it does! Thanks, Katy, for your kind words.
The exacta paid surprisingly well although they express it as a $2 bet so it was about $24 but not bad considering the horses were first and third in the odds. I’m glad Sovereignty beat Journalism, but I had Coal Battle because I like him and he looks great racing and otherwise. He didn’t disgrace himself finishing eleventh. Sovereignty ran at Saratoga and Gulfstream so that’s another accolade for the Florida Derby and a badly needed Derby win for the east coast. He beat the overwhelming and highly hyped favorite who couldn’t lose according to his fans. We who handicapped otherwise are pleased to be proven right.
No one stated he couldn’t lose. Journalism will be back.
You’re wrong, many did state that. Most public handicappers sad they hadn’t been this confident in years, they could find no flaws. That’s not handicapping.
It wasn’t much different than what happened last year.
Ok Disco, stand corrected. But,is it any different when each year rabid fans of a certain barn doing the war chant- “but, but, he’s loaded”. Guessing $3.2 mil for a horse doesn’t go as far as it once did.
I meant the way the race played out wasn’t much different than the race last year, with closers almost winning after a fast pace upfront. That differs from the many recent years that just off the pace horses won it, when there were fewer or no pure speed horses and as a result, the closers didn’t have as much of a chance and weren’t up to it anyway. But that was the crop in those years. I like this year’s crop, with good horses of all different styles. I think the ones that didn’t do so well yesterday will be good in stakes. Some of the big trainers and owners took a hit this year, although Godolphin is a huge entity and finally won. I like underdog stories too but don’t mind it when expensive horses win.
In agreement regarding this year’s crop. BTW, really impressed with Baeza.
I would like to see a rematch between Sovereignty and Journalism on a fast track. Neither had perfect trips, however, I do believe Journalism had the worst of the 2. I think they are very evenly matched.
No doubt.
almost 8/1… in reality
Correct. He paid $17.96 to win.
Steve I can’t thank you enough for the ride year after year and two have your two horses finish one and 2 was just incredible ! All best wishes to you and thanks for an incredible experience reading this column week in and week out ! 🌹🌹🙏🐎🐎
Sovereignty sittin on go with paired up numbers, loves the track, 9/1 what a gift
Journalism ran his brains out with Baeza closing. Thank you Steve
Just watched with immense enjoyment a replay featuring a sidebar showing Larry Collmus calling the race. After the horses cross the wire, he does a little jig and pumps his fists. Love that enthusiasm!
Youre welcome…….the pro keeps on winning……..
So it is written, so shall it be done. Congrats to you Mr. Haskin for nailing this down months ago. Nothing separating the top two you said. And that proved true despite rain and mud. What a credit to your amazing eye. There really is no doubt in my mind that you are the Derby Bard. Thanks for everything. I’m sure your busy writing your closing argument. No doubt it will cover the story of these two sparing in Florida. Well done, again.
Steve Haskin nailed it.
The stamina influence provided by Sovereignty’s dam side was on full display today.
Also, you can chalk up another homebred colt winning the Derby. That makes it eleven out of the last twenty-one winners of the Derby that were homebred.
That outcome was the most depressing one😒 you’ll didn’t even see the best 3yr old in the derby. Shame it was the track conditions it was🤬!
So who was the best three year old?
Well, I had a couple of near misses on my bets but have to thank Baeza, whom I added to my picks this morning on an impulse, for finishing third to prevent me from batting zero (oops, mixed my sports metaphors). He was really coming at the finish. Though I didn’t pick Sovereignty, I’m very happy for Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado!
Journalism ran gallantly to finish second. Wish Coal Battle (11th) had finished a little higher up, but I know his team is proud of him.
I had a great payday in the Derby, hitting the super two times, and hit my Futures Exacta wager, (I boxed Sovereignty and Journalism in a $50.00 exacta wager, in Pool 6)
Today, I played a super p/w (8,18,21 with ALL) paid $1,682.00) and hit it again with a
8,18/8,18/ 3,7,9,13,21/ 3,7,9,13,21 super p/w wager.
Total winnings, $6,189.00 (minus investment).
I hope my fellow contributors cashed as well.
BTW, my $2.00 exacta wager in Pool 6, (8/18) paid $2,2825.00)
Congratulations!
Thanks, Lynda.
I’m glad to see you’re back posting. We missed you.
Best of luck moving forward.
Edit: Pool 6 exacta wager paid, $2,285.00
Wow! Congratulations, Bill!
Thanks, arlingtonfan.
That does it, you are taking us ALL out to dinner! Congratulations, Bill! You so deserve this great success.
Many thanks, Ms Blacktype
It would be my pleasure to take everyone to dinner. If you ever happen to visit San Diego, let me know. I’ll arrange it.
You got it!
Congrats Bill …!
Your Super formula worked beautiful today and your futures had a good coverage as well…!
I hit a Trifecta but the payoff is nothing compared to yours…
We’ll be looking for some longshots somewhere else… LOL
Thanks, Nelson.
I’ve been overdue for a big payday and finally hit it big.
Hats off to Steve Haskin, he had Sovereignty and Journalism both ranked at number one for several weeks. In addition, he was right there or there abouts with the Thoro-Graph numbers that he graciously provided.
BTW, did you notice how Baeza galloped out? It appeared he wanted to go around again.
Best of luck in the Preakness.
Yes Bill … Baeza was so fast at the end that I thought he had caught Journalism at the wire…
Prat will have a lot of fun with the son of McKinzie this year…!
Amusing trolls on another site repeatedly say John can’t train. Baeza is seriously talented.
Baeza ran an incredible race considering he was on edge before the race and his bad post position… he will be very tough in the Preakness or in the 10 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes.-
Also, I am pretty sure that Journalism did not like the mud at all… he seemed like “jumping pods” with his forelegs at some points… the Derby favorite will be better on fast tracks in my estimation…
Anyway, the Belmont at Saratoga will be very exciting race indeed if the top Derby horses face off again there…
Well stated Nelson. Do you see Baeza waiting for Belmont.
Yes Mike…we know that there are no love for running two weeks after big efforts…who knows …it all depends on the horse…but 5 week between tough races is ideal …
Congratulations, Bill!!! You nailed futures and live bets!!! Great selection of superfecta bets!!! I hope you enjoy today for the next year: You earned it!!$
Thanks, biggy312.
Coming down the stretch, I thought Journalism would win, but Sovereignty nailed him late. I’m sorry you didn’t hit that big Futures wager that you had on Journalism.
Best of luck moving forward.
Congrats Bill! Very happy for you.
Thanks, kmi
Congrats on your big day Bill!
Thanks, Joe P
Great job!
Thanks, TommyMcD
Congrats to Godolphin … the boys in blue are wearing the Roses at last! What a week for Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum!
I hope to see Sovereignty in the Preakness … the son of Into Mischief is in an upside in form right now in my view. Into Mischief equaled the record of 3 Derby winners as a Sire… going for the record (4) next year …
Journalism was very valiant in defeat but looked tired at the end.
Baeza ran great also overcoming a lot of troubles… Final Gambit ran to expectations with his 4th and…
I am also, impressed by the ride of Javier Castellano on Owen Almighty … turns out his owners were right about his quality.
My Sincere Thanks Steve for your dedication and kindness in covering the Derby preamble.
Your Week 13 column said it all …
My jaw dropped when I saw OWEN ALMIGHTY finished 5th, after being close to the lead all the way. What a gutsy horse. Can’t wait till his owners run him in shorter races.
The only speed that remotely held. Love this colt, and was so happy to see him get a paycheck, and do it safe and (I hope) sound.
Very happy for the horse and connections. He ran a great race!
Sofia Loren wins and Catherine Zeta Jones 2nd
Oops. SOPHIA LOREN
The comparisons were perfect! Sovereignty has that BIG front end, powerful shoulder – pull from the front gallop. Sophia Loren is his doppelgänger for sure.
Great race! Thanks for all the info, Steve. Was a fun few months on the road to the Derby. Ended up with the win, exacta, trifecta, and Oaks Derby double. Small bets, but I’ll take it.
Karren, is that all?! You scored! Congratulations!!
Thanks, Ms. Blacktype. Haven’t done that well in the Derby for a number of years.
I’m lucky if I pick the winner. My picks usually run 2-3-4.
My futures picks did run 2-3-4!!! Very enjoyable race
Well-done!!! You can enjoy for the next 12 months!!!
Congratulations
Woo hoo!
Bernardini is the BMS of a Derby winner – he’s on track to be one of the best BMS in a long, long time
Indeed! He lives on!
Well I had a nice exacta and a nice win saver on that unreal price (thanks to the Sandman influencer) and hit both of my tri boxes (again, I keft Sandman off all my wagers)…I had ban feelings, for Journalism, after the bumps out of the gate– the horse to his right made a bizarre left turn…was that Joau? On Luxor? I thought he might cause a tragedy! I’m sorry Journalism lost—I love that horse and he will be back!Maybe for The Belmont—this year looked shy, on top level horses—the winner is top level….
Thrilled!
Steve, you had him! I picked Journalism, bet a $1 boxed exacta on Journalism and Baeza, and plunged ($10) on Burnham Square, but Sovereignty was the ONE. What a great race, and his Derby winners’ pedigree has been validated. Congratulations to all who had Sovereignty in your various wagers. Thrilled to see all top four horses run a great race. All day, I had a feeling Final Gambit was going to run a big race, and he made the superfecta. Nice to know my brain can still ALMOST get to the solution of a complex puzzle.
Congrats to Bill Mott, who is exactly my age and clearly had no intention of slowing down or quitting what he’s good at.
SOVEREIGNTY!!!!
Just as I suspected…
Congrats Counter! You nailed it.
I don’t was your suspicion was … the only thing you said that was shockingly unforgettable is that Journalism was going to finish at the tail of the field … or something in that tune. Well done there!
It is very revealing that you are silent after foolishly disparaging the favorite…
I don’t know what your suspicion was ….!
Great job, Steve Haskin. You had them tied at the top for a long time. Beautiful!
Going all in on Final Gambit- I have thing for the grays- as I have one.. they are special 🙂
I was so pleased with Final Gambit’s run! If his break had been a little better.. who knows??
He was coming!!! I was high on him, too. Absolutely showed that he belonged. What an introduction to dirt. Thrilled with that one.
My bet is in. Got my sights on Publisher.
Journalism for the home run.
My wagers
Supers
3,5 w 3,5,7,8 w 3,5,7,8,9,12,16,18 w 3,5,7,8,9,12,13,16,18,19,21
8 w 12,16,19 w 5,7,9,18,21 w 3,5,7,12,13,16,18,19,21
Tri
3,5,9,12,16,18 w 7,8, w 3,5,7,8,9,12,16,18,19,21
Good luck to all!!!!!!!
Decoupling has most likely run out time this session in Florida. The Senate didn’t make it a priority. I’m sure they’ll try again next year, but the horsemen may have gotten some time.
An interesting note to our blog fellows who like to register oddities…
If Godolphin and Juddmonte happen to fill the exacta in the Kentucky Derby it would be a reprise of the 2000 Guineas result.
Godolphin’s Ruling Court was able to fend off a powerful late rally of Juddmonte’s Field of Gold in the first jewel of the British Triple Crown. Godolphin also got the show with the valiant Shadow of Light after using Tornado Alert as a rabbit… Field of Gold curiously is also a grey like Final Gambit…
Perhaps the current odds of 39 to 1 for East Avenue for the Kentucky Derby rests in the assumption that the number 12 will be a rabbit for Sovereignty… However, Godolphin does not need a rabbit as there are five other horses with natural early speed who will be driving an honest pace.
So, there is a chance of two ownership/breeding powerhouses setting a record of getting the Exactas in the first leg of the British and American Triple Crowns… good luck to Godolphin and Juddmonte to keep their momentum in the Run for the Roses…
Nelson – agree about Field of Gold! He was flying late, and does indeed favor Final Gambit.
Godolphin is having themselves a weekend. I think both of theirs look like good value.
I don’t comment on here a whole lot, but I wanted to say, as we are just a few hours away now from the The Big Race, how much this millennial (and my gen Alpha sons!) enjoys your Derby Rankings every year. I’ve learned so much from you and the other commenters here, and these weeks following the preps and reading your perspective every week are truly one of my favorite times of year. Good luck to all with your wagers, and safe trips to all the horses! Can’t wait to read recaps and everyone’s thoughts and comments when it’s all over.
Thank you so much Liz. I really appreciate that.
Mr. Haskin, thanks for another great read!
Me and my 9 year old son are on cloud 9 after Sovereignty’s win! I settled on him as my main pick a little bit later, but my 9 year old had him earlier and was completely thrilled. I think racing has got him hooked. Final Gambit was my longshot pick, and I was happy to see him run so well, too.
Prat rode the winner of the big 3yo turf stakes…for Chad Brown, who was assistant to Bobby Frankel—he rides Vaeza on The Derby—for John Shirreffs, another assistant to Frankel!..
Banishing was flying late to just miss. That David Jacobson is a miracle worker. Banishing has been fantastic after being taken off the track in an equine ambulance back in August at Saratoga. Banishing has won 5 races since then with 3 seconds. Against pretty good company. That will be six triple digit BSFs in a row. An interesting horse.
The more that I think about it, the more impressed I am with Banishing. I’m assuming that today’s run will earn him another triple digit BSF. Numbers people will know that it takes a special horse to do that. Earn six 100+ in a row. To perform at that level for nine races in a row. Now 9 races since being vanned off with 5 wins and 4 seconds. That was a Grade 1 today. The former claimer is a million dollar earner as well.
I remember Banishing from 2 years ago at Fair Grounds. A lot was expected of him after an impressive Maiden breaker. It didn’t work out then. He’s fulfilling that promise now.
Three international jockeys who know each other very well from their work in Hong Kong and Japan are starting next to each other in the Kentucky Derby.
The French Christophe Lemaire (Admire Daytona), the Brazilian Joao Moreira (Luxor Cafe), and Umberto Rispoli (Journalism) may not have the Derby experience of the Ortiz brothers, Joel Rosario, or of the effective Flavien Prat but they got proven superior ability and expertise handling big fields.
Jockeys matter …it is curious that the best (4) races of Admire Daytona were under Lemaire; and two different jockeys could be blamed for Admire Daytona’s two worst races (4th placings).
Lemaire was aboard when they lost by a nose to Luxor Cafe in a maiden race back in November at Tokyo… their time for the mile was a record for 2-year-olds. In contrast, a different jockey blew the start with Admire Daytona in the Hyacinth Stakes and could not do better than a 4th 3 lengths behind an improved Luxor Cafe.
Christophe Lemaire is getting better in his Derby performances after debuting with a 13th with Crown Pride after a senseless early rush in 2022 and finishing a creditable 6th with Derma Sotogake in 2023.
It is said that jockeys have to also handicap other jockeys to be more effective in any given race… it will be very helpful in the Derby if you can pinpoint and read the most aggressive ones…
SoCal horses have done well at Churchill this week…
They have also done pretty well on the wet turf. Which I didn’t expect.
Queen Maxima is special!…
And another! Apparently the off track was nothing to Kopion.
Sorcerer’s Silver pulled up in Race 3 has fractured sesamoid.
Will go to Rood & Riddle for fusion surgery.
Prayers for a full recovery.
California Burrito didn’t have any gas….(two shows nightly!)..
I thought Rispoli put ap a great ride, they got pinched but he kept his mount in position a d didn’t get shuffled wayback…held his spot and hot out at the right time…not a perfect break but was in the position to win— Sovereignty was too much horse….top threw ran great….
Rolling down the cushion isn’t “real” slop–it’s teal FAST! Inside speed becomes king…..I hope they harrow out the cushion, fir The Derby—it’s not good for horses to run on a rolled down cushion! NOTHING wrong with good old fash/ioned muddy conditiong—deep slop is plenty safe….
Way to go Macho Music- A beautiful ride by Javier. Nice to see a small operation cleaning up on Derby Day!
Yes!
And Javier is one of my favorite jockeys.
Given the weather, the most sensible headgear I’ve seen on any of the commentators is the red umbrella of Donna Brothers. Some of these hats wear the owner, not the other way around.
You gave me a chuckle there, Ms Blacktype. So true!
Thanks, AF!
Steve, thanks for all the terrific work these last few months. Your passion and knowledge of the sport is evident, and I truly appreciate your writing.
I was on the Grande bandwagon before he scratched, but now it’s all about Journalism. I think he can handle any track condition, and being a son of Curlin won’t hurt his chances on a wet one. After that it’s Sovereignty, Luxor Cafe, and Final Gambit for me. Good luck and safe trips for all!
Thanks very much Dutch.
Best quote of the day on Friday about Good Cheer on X:
You can’t quantify heart and desire.
Great quote Lynda…
It is really chocking that there are still people saying that she has not improved because “her Beyer was 91 “… ridiculous to say the least!
She goes 7 wide and wins for fun and still they are not satisfied … go figure!
I know, go figure!
Happy Derby Day, Lynda!
I love her. Her face reminds me of Rachel’s.
Thanks Steve for all you do. I’m banking on Journalism to run a good race in spite of the sloppy track. Hopefully being by Curlin will enhance his chances. Here’s my P5 ending in the KY Derby. 3,7,10,11/3,5,7,10/1,2,8/1,2,7,10/8.
KY Derby bets $3 TRI: 8/3,5,7,21/3,5,7,18,21
$1 SF : 8/3,5,7,21/3,5,7,18,21/3,5,7,18,21. Safe trips for all. Have a 52-1 KDFW2 bet on Journalism. Also boxed him with the Field. Hopefully if he loses, then a field horse finishes ahead of him so I can win that bet. Safe trips for all.
Happy Derby Day, everyone! What a journey it’s been to get here! Enjoy the day and safe trips to all.
Two potential bombs in the slop Flying Mohawk and Publisher. Also Luxor Cafe at a lower price. But it’s all a guess. You never know who will handle it.
David, I made it back to my hotel in time to see the last furlong of the 2000 Guineas!
And I want to let Davids know I managed to see the ENTIRE race, having set up three recordings in order to catch it. Finally, success. Will do the same thing tomorrow for the 1,000 Guineas.
I will try to actually catch the entire race, lol – depends what time it is, though
Any horse you like?
So cool! Can Godolphin make it a triple this weekend?
Love the pedigree on that one – no inbreeding thru 5, and that Sadler’s Wells nick.
Oh, and HAP had a baby named Romeo debut at Laurel with a 12 length win!
Rank is entered tomorrow at 6 1/2 F – a good move. Here’s hoping tomorrow is it!
Betsy, Ms Blacktype, Katy so glad you caught the race. I just watched the replay – those European milers when they accelerate, so thrilling.
I’m hoping Flight can upset the 1,000 Guineas tomorrow.
I’m so over the moon Mindframe won the Churchill Downs Stakes, the Kentucky Derby is just an afterthought now. Ha ha
Indeed it is!
Hopefully I’ll be able yo catch the full 1000 Guineas – if it’s run at the same time, there’s a good chance !
Good luck to Flight!
I’m happy for you!
Sloppy & Good.
It’s amazing that the turf course could be as good as, well, “Good”.
fyi, here are the Brisnet off-track ratings:
PP. Rating
1. 112
2. 101
3. 110
4. scr
5. 111
6. 105
7. 106
8. 113
9. 111
10. scr
11. 103
12. 111
13. 106
14. 114
15. 109
16. 103 but 2-2 on off tracks
17. 113
18. 113
19. 105
20. 113
21. 108
What do they mean, if anything?
It is based on pedigree, and higher number means more likely to handle an off track. I think 13 of the Derby horses will be racing on an off track for the first time…
It looks like the first two races and the last two races will be on TVG/FanDuel.
USA Network 12noon-2:30pm
NBC 2:30pm-7:30pm
Getting good at the right time as the saying goes. Well, a handful of horses can lay claim to that saying. Good chance mother nature may have a say in the matter along with the testing distance of 1¼ mile, and the dynamics of the race shape due to scratches.
I’d like to think my horse can handle those challenges. I’m taking TIZTASTIC with Joel ROSARIO in the irons to bring it on home for Steve Asmussen and his connections 1st Derby win.
Steve, I have enjoyed reading your articles and selections since you were still at Bloodhorse and I was a girl in high school. I am so glad you have continued to write and your Derby series is one of the things I most look forward to each year. You have knocked it out of the park once again! It is too bad Grande scratched, as I admittedly hadn’t thought much of him but your analysis of him made me rethink things and, while probably not betting on him, I was very curious to see how he ran. I look forward to seeing your update on how Baeza getting in affects your exotics and the race!
Thank you very much Alex. I really appreciate it.
The two Andys have gone for Journalism to win – that’s too hard to overcome than the the other 18 horses.
If you mean Andy Serling, i am deeply worried. That saddle is getting heavy.
Andy Serling + Andy Beyer agree
Maybe they’re both due. Odds are they’re get one right once in a decade.
Even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then!
Jinx!
Davids, never do I give anything they say a second thought.
Will they run Nysos over an “off” track after how long it has taken him to get back to the races? They have started and stopped on him quite a few times.
Yes, Tommy, I’m waiting to see how many scratches there is going to be from every race. NYRA was saying they were expecting 2 inches of rain…
Yikes!!!
An April 29 DRF article says Louisville could get up to an inch of rain on Saturday. The weather forecast site I just checked seems to confirm a fair amount of rain is expected.
NYRA said 2 inches is expected. We have a Federal Election here in Australia tonight so the races have already started so to speak. Ha ha
Champagne is flowing throughout the neighbourhood. 🥂😂
Is the voting over? I never heard of celebrating before the polls close.
Ms Blacktype, it was a landslide one of the quickest wins ever thanks to ‘you know who’ from the USA and his tariffs hitting Australia. The USA actually sells more to Australia than Australia exports to the US so the reaction was expected.
The Opposition Leader here, who was pro DT, lost his seat as happened in the Canadian Opposition Leader.
A minor quibble with you putting a deep closer label on Tiztastic and Sandman. They make up most of their ground on the turn and are near or on the lead at the head of the stretch. They can be far back on the backstretch but they start their runs on the turn and sustain them through the stretch. I think Publisher is of a similar style as well. I’m using all three in my wagers and feel Asmussen may well get his win this year.
You just described a deep closer.
Agree… Tony D
Okay you are correct. Then my quibble isn’t with Steve., but the definition. I think Sandman and Tiztastic have the best chance at winning by being on or near the lead at the head of the stretch.
Being that the first 2 finisher were sired by Med D’ Oro in KD Oaks.. This may move East Avenue down with the odds tomorrow if the track is sloppy.
That’s a great hunch bet, Downy. I may go for it if it’s muddy at 6:30 tomorrow.
Drexel Hill is actually sired by Bolt d’Oro.
Thanks for correction Davids… Med is the Grandpa
Really like the way Baeza glides over the track. Hopefully he can handle the slop. Best of luck to all, and safe trips and fun Kentucky Derby parties as well.
With the Saturday Card at Churchill Downs turning into a slop fest. Just miserable. Look East in search for the Saturday Card at Newmarket at sunny Suffolk. Like Churchill Downs, but sunny, Newmarket will host the first Classic of the year with the 2,000 Guineas mile race is for 3 year old colts and fillies, no geldings.
I’ve lost my main hope in the 2,000 Guineas but Expanded by Wooten Bassett is an ample replacement to take on Field of Gold and Ruling Court. Expanded has Ryan Moore aboard and is owned/trained by the usual suspects.
The 1,000 Guineas for 3 year olds fillies at a mile, again at sunny Newmarket, but on Sunday is headed by the daunting duo of Desert Flower and Lake Victoria who are both undefeated. Nonetheless, an upset is possible and this may come from the Siyouni filly, Flight. Fingers crossed.
Here in Australia we have the one Group 1 race this Saturday, the SA Derby at Morphettville, South Australia, around 2,500m in cloudy but dry conditions. Goldrush Guru by American Pharoah looks likely here.
Sandman, Tiztastic, Journalist for the Kentucky Derby but Coal Battle would be the best story. Luxor Cafe a danger. Good luck and safe racing everywhere.
What about Chunk of Gold, the $2500 bargain horse?..
Illustrates Matthew what I’ve stated- many ‘blue blooded’ horses fail to make the starting gate for the Derby. A million dollar horse guarantees nothing.
There still are several million $$$ babies left!!!
Only 1…Sandman…1.2 million…
Update: BAEZA also…1.2 million…
Matthew, what about Flying Mohawk the racing gods appear to be setting the race up for a mudlark.
I’m so disappointed about the predicted weather, a sea of slop.
Every Derby, I throw a $5 3 horse trifecta box, haven’t cashed yet, but here is my trifecta box for this Derby:
8,21,3
If that hits, I will be doing cart-wheels down the Strip!!
Hoping for not too much rain and safe trips all around.
I like that 3 horse box Biggy. I’ll be posting my picks tomorrow. I’m using 6 horses in various spots in my exotics. I am definitely using your 3. Good luck!
Thanks, Joe!! I am very much looking forward to see your picks. I have a bunch of trifectas with Journalism keyed to 6 or 7 horses, but, there are lots of 3 horse combinations in 19 horse field! I am also starting to get a little nervous about tomorrow…Believe we are on the most-likely winner…but still nervous!!
The article i hv been waiting for, thank you Mr haskins, i hv to start all over two of my 5 picks got scratched, i personely think Journalism is much the best, so i will but him on top in my exacta with 5 other horses, No Sandman, no Tapit’s hv won derbt yet, course no Curlins hv either, but Sandman is to one demcibal, although he An Soveneighty will be nextto each other whole way, Really would love to se Coach win it has potential, Wish everone a safe trip, hope no rain, no mishaps
You have to hand it to Brad C. I know Good Cheer was the big favorite. But she was wide all the way around the track and Good Cheer still had the stamina to blow them away in the stretch.
Maybe some other 3-year-old fillies will step up later in the year, but right now it’s Good Cheer head and shoulders above the rest. I honestly think that it is a pretty weak division.
Stated other day Tommy she would prevail.
I might have to agree with you on weak crop Tommy but are looking at an off track.
The money will be coming in later, tomorrow—they want to see how the track is playing—Sovereignity at 9-1 is rediculous—
The prelude to the Oaks was a bit odd, with the call for “Riders Up” not going out until the jockeys were already mounted and heading to the track, and then Travis Stone naming Five G in the post parade as if she hadn’t scratched. At any rate, congratulations to Good Cheer!
Kentucky Oaks
11/ 6,7,9,10,14/ 6,7,9,10,14/ 6,7,9,10,14 ($1.00 super p/w)
6,7,9,10,14/ 11/ 6,7,9,10,14/ 6,7,9,10,14 ($1.00 super p/w)
In addition, I’ll key Good Cheer on top of the two horses that the Ortiz brothers are riding, in a fairly large trifecta p/w wager.
11/ 3,14/ 3,14
Safe trips to all.
I was looking in the history books for a case of a young Derby prospect recapturing form after two consecutive debacles to reach the Derby. I wanted to see any parallel to East Avenue’s upsetting episodes.
It turns out that none other than Bold Ruler also suffered two devastating loses in his last two races as a 2-year-old but went on to unleash a Hall of Fame career afterwards …
Bold Ruler was the 2 to 1 favorite in the rich 1956 Garden State Stakes but stumbled badly at the 6-furlong pole when a speed crazy Jaunty John stopped suddenly in front of him.
After that blunder Bold Ruler was the 4-to-6 favorite in the Remsen Stakes but lost any chance to win after breaking with his forelegs in the air. This streak of bad luck cost Bold Ruler the championship…
Ojo…Not saying that East Avenue is Bold Ruler but just noting that both had similar experience bouncing back from two dreadful races; both got similar running style; and stumbling cost them the title of 2-year-old champion.
I believe that the Blue Grass was better race than many pundits assume… they are duped by the “very slow time” (of 1:51) but, again, they are simply overlooking how heavy the Keeneland track was for the Blue Grass… I am glad Steve always highlights that track hindrance.
How can one explain that the same people who said that the Blue Grass was the best prep in terms of horses with excellent Stakes credentials end up dismissing that prep just because it was “slow”…
Anyway, I am hoping the homebred prospects Burnham Square and East Avenue get into the Superfecta so they can make all those who publicly and loudly say “I hate East Avenue” and “I don’t want anyone from the Blue Grass” learn their lesson about track biases… and imagine the sea of excuses if the other two Blue Grass graduates, Render Judgment and Owen Almighty end up beating half of the field … !
Anyway, if some people can even knock Journalism we can expect any kind of argument against the other Derby contenders …
After all, we all have very different colored handicapping glasess … and those will be very muddy tomorrow at Churchill …
We shall see.
Right now, Burnham Square’s odds a very healthy 16 to 1. My (rare) betting is going dismally today, and if this continues, my three-horse boxed exacta (Good Cheer, La Cara, and Quietside) will go down in flames.
If it doesn’t, I may grow emboldened to play one or more of my superfectas tomorrow. I should be able to afford the dime ones, even if I play 5 and 6 horses.
Good luck to all. I expect to hear one of you strikes it rich.
Nelson, I meant to say, Burnham Square is my pick to win.
Good selection Ms Blacktype … I see Burnham being so tractable by Brian Hernandez that they can have a winning trip ala Mystik Dan… being small and nimble should help a lot…!
Not to disappoint, but i’m pretty sure Churchill suspends dime supers for oaks and derby day to keep the lines moving.
There goes THAT option.
Ms Blacktype – correct me if I’m wrong but I believe the .10 cent variety in betting a superfecta are not offered.
Burnham Square is one that will keep on coming! Deep closers aren’t necessarily stamina laden, they just kick—Burney will keep on keeping on, to quote Mr Dylan….he is in my ex/tri bets….I also have an Oaks/Derby Double bet on Burney, the character!..
East Avenue 36-1 even after Rodriguez scratches? Really?
Baeza is long odds too. (Even Sovereignty is 9-1 last I looked.) Get them while you can.
I hope the fiction about the Blue Grass in the head of some experts keeps East Avenue juicy odds tomorrow…!
I’d love to see a Godolphin/Medaglia D’Oro double! Wonder if he will get more play tomorrow when people see his silks and sire, and think about them doing well today.
Just make them pay. I really like Burnham Square but looking back and seeing that EA was coming off such a long break and still ran that well(per your comments) …….I’m with you on this guy creeping into the exotics. Take the money and run. He’s bred to enjoy the off track too! My last super play looks like this.
Journalist with EA, Coal Battle, Chunk of G, with AmerP, Lex, Bsq, Sov, Baeza, with Final G, AmerP, Lex,Bsq, EA, Pub, Coal, Sov, Chunk, Baeza. $120.00
Good Luck Steve
Nelson, thanks for looking at the history books. I love reading stuff like that.
My pleasure Robert… I am glad you like it.
Steve’s blog here is the only site we can all enjoy reminiscing about the golden old days…
I’ve read and heard a bunch of arguments against Burnham Square running big in the derby. These arguments stand out:
1. His speed figures say he isn’t fast enough.
Well, his last three race figures set him up for a derby-winning effort:
BSF 90>91>96 (par for KD is 102)
Brisnet 101>96>97 (par for KD is 102)
Equibase 91>93>104 (par for KD is 107)
2. His final fraction in the BG Stakes doesn’t bode well for the CD stretch.
He finished the final furlong in 12 4/5 sec. That’s the same time as Mystic Dan’s and Nyquist’s prep finishes, a tick faster than Orb’s, two ticks faster than Mage, Rich Strike, and Medina Spirit, and only one tick slower than Maximum Security, Justify, Always Dreaming, and American Pharoah.
3. Only 4.5 lengths separated the winner and the last horse in the BG Stakes. This is typical of a lesser quality race.
Perhaps the reason the 7 runners were close together when Burnie hit the wire is that the BG Stakes had the best overall field of all the final preps. Five of the runners were graded stakes winners and one just missed (River Thames in the FOY).
I don’t know how an off-track will affect any of the derby runners. But I know that Burnie is a solid win candidate. I have him, Journalism, and Sovereignty in future wagers. I was planning on making stabs (no handicapping!) tomorrow on Luxor King and/or Final Gambit. My luck with off-track derbies is dismal. I’ll probably stand pat with my future wagers or make small wagers on LK/FG.
Good luck to all, and may the derby be a safely run race.
Hi pedigree screams miler. I would be surprised if he’s anywhere near the lead with a furlong to go.
I’m on board with Journalism and Sovereignty. Good luck with your future wagers!
After further review, it appears Baeza checks all boxes for an off track.
A few weeks back I posted on this forum that my #1 pick for my Derby dozen was American Promise. With the weeks that have followed nothing has changed and would make me waiver from that choice. I am all in with him to win. I will be playing a $50 win ticket ( I also have a small win wager on him and Burnham Square in the KDFW #6 at 40/1 and 30/1 respectively) on him tomorrow come rain or shine. I will play some exotics with him also (just have not solidified my choices but he will be my “key” # 1 horse) I will also do a $2 exacta box with Citizen Bull. This is because of the missed opportunity years of ago of the War Emblem (Baffert) and Proud Citizen (Lukas) huge exacta. I said I would never let that happen again when those 2 have non favorites in the KD.
May have more tomorrow but this is my bet so far.
May all a great day tomorrow on all other races except the KD unless you have American Promise to win !!! (LOL)
My Oaks Play
2,11
2,11
7,9,13,14
6,7,9,10,12,13,14
Love Simply Joking. She trained so well I have to pair her up with the best. $$$$$$
Good luck to all.
Adding an Oaks Derby DD $6
Simply Joking to American Promise, Final Gambit, Journalism, Sovereignty, Burnham Square, Baeza
Sorry Anna lost, but not surprising. Her two races this year were not really dominant considering her opponents. Many fillies don’t transition into the next year at the same level.
I posted this question on yhe last week blog by mustake—Steve–remember a mare some 45 years ago named Mairzy Doates? What a great name! She was a well traveled mare, who came west one winter and ran several times–I rooted for her but I don’t recall her winning—she was a New York filly, and a good one…s friendtellsme she won The Japan Cup….is that so?…
Hey Matthew,
Yes, she did. Mairzy Doates won the very first Japan Cup in 1981.
Wow! I remember she was by Nodouble, who stood in California–sire of Double Discount one of my favorites, a big sway backed gelding….they took John Henry to the Japan Cup—he got sick but Rubin said to run him…what a mistake—that old guy TRIED HARD—not good to ask Jim to run when sick, and he finished far back….
I remember. There were many really good fillies in the early 80s. Not sure if she came to Atlantic City for the Matchmaker, where i could have seen her.
RE: Churchill, R5.
5/ 2,4,7,8/ 2,4,7,8/ 2,4,7,8 ($1.00 super p/w)
Bill,
Looks like you hit this. Am I correct? If so nice win !!!
I said early last week I would be doing a rain dance every day for Publisher. Can’t believe that worked lol.
Note his two moves in the Arkansas. One to catch up to Sandman on the backstretch. Then when Sandman kicked away on the far turn, he caught up to him again at the top of the stretch.
$600K horse on the improve
Ran solid on wet Churchill track at age 2
28-1
Thanks for making this journey so fun Steve.
Good luck to all.
Publishers pedigree screams slop I would definitely bet him in the slop.
Thanks for the vote of confidence!
Keep on dancing!
Hi Steve,
Thanks so much for all of your hard work and analysis especially with all of the late innings curve balls. As usual it’s a tough race to handicap with all of the possible scenarios that could happen. For my winning pick I can’t go with anyone but Journalism but as we all know the best horse doesn’t always win the Derby. Therefore I will be boxing Journalism with Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty and Final Gambit. Thanks again and good luck to all!
Best,
Hammer
Steve, thanks for another year of entertaining and informative pieces that got us through the Derby Prep Season! I look forward to your rain and scratches comments on Saturday morning with my coffee as I get ready to make a crockpot of Kentucky Burgoo for our Derby Party!
I’m puzzled as to why Grande was scratched but not Render Judgment, who’s dealing with a quarter crack.
I was thinking the same thing, arlingtonfan. Something stinks, and I’m not talking horse manure.
Dewey Herbert– I concur. There’s someone in charge at CDI who really dislikes Repole. It seems he is being treated as a carpetbagger from New York coming into Kentucky. When another horse with a quarter crack (with different connections) can run and Grande cannot something is fishy.
Good question! When does the track vet make the final call?
How many years have you been making me smile with you kind insights and by sharing your perspective without ever morphing into the tones of a pundit! Thanks a bunch and really looking forward to another Allen Sherman reference.
Thank you Steve for all your hard work and energy required to bring us another wonderful Derby trail . Don’t know how you do it but you are terrific and I so appreciate you sharing your vast knowledge and excellent writing with us. You must be doing something right because I had Grande and Rodriguez as two of my picks, but no worries as I don’t bet anymore but am just a simple devoted follower. I’ll stick with my beloved fillies, mares and older horses. Quietside for the win today and since I love a closer Sovergnity and any horse above the 14th post position for the Derby !! LOL May they all have safe trips and many thanks to you.
Gai Waterhouse on Journalism: “He reminds me of Storm Boy. He’s got a big bum, you know, a big hind quarters and a very beautiful head and he moves very freely. I think he looked hunky dory.”
For what it’s worth kids.
For what it’s worth, Storm Boy never reached the hype. Storm Boy was 3rd in the Golden Slipper as a 2 year old. In his last race was 8th of 11 runners.
Steve, your column this week is superb. And you pretty much confirmed my picks from a few days ago. I have a feeling that tomorrow’s race will go according to form. After all, there are now only 18 horses for the winner to deal with, and perhaps fewer by the time they enter the gate. 🙂
Thanks for an entertaining and informative several months.
I’ve figured out where to watch the races today if anyone in interested.
Races 1-4 and 12-13 on TVG/FanDuel
Races 5-11 on USA Network.
Not sure about Saturday yet and won’t investigate it until tomorrow.
THis is one of the problems with racing these days. It should be the simplest thing in the world for to watch the races instead of having to search for which channels are showing which races. Frustrating! IT should be fan friendly. Treat your customers better.
Well said. If the networks stick to the published schedules, it’s not too complicated tomorrow–12:00-2:30 on USA and 2:30-7:30 on NBC. But I too hate to keep switching channels to get a day of racing.
Grande scratch is a travesty and reeks of payback under the guise of keeping the horse safe. Repole is very outspoken against the Jockey Club. Really BS. When you’re as insecure and inept as the JC… you do things such as this. And Repole is dead on with the timing. Check out his statement.
Better yet, why don’t you summarize the statement, and then tell us why the scratch is a “travesty.”
It’s a travesty to the workers, the groom, the exercise rider and all the little ppl who worked their butts off for two years getting Grande ready for the biggest race of their lives. A once in a lifetime moment for ppl who likely can’t scratch two nickels together and work with horses for the love of the game. Repole will be fine. But all of the above is what the jockey club doesn’t see from their ivory tower. It’s pitiful. This has zero to do with safety.
What happened to the horse? I am not finding details anywhere. I do not see a statement from the owner anywhere.
It is being called a “foot bruise.” Such a thing wouldn’t necessarily show on a scan, I suppose, but a vet may see some discoloration or swelling.
Exactly, or lameness at the jog on a hard surface – or even off when turned tightly. Also could have hooftester sensitivity or sensitive on palpation.
Repole put out a statement on Twitter stating ALL scans are clean.
Three starts and lite work …one work….there was something amiss.
Definitely was off..I agree..said as much on this site. But all scans came back clean. I guaranty that if you scanned every horse in this field…most would have similar nicks. This really isn’t a safety issue..it’s Repole v Jockey Club.
Yes, you have inside information. Must be nice.
“Jockey Club” LOL
Nah… just not naive.
Scans are just one diagnostic tool veterinarians use. No end-all, be-all.
The Jockey Club is mostly a record keeping organization. The states and/or the tracks are the employers of these regulatory vets.
A good read on this topic is available at Thoroughbred Daily News online. The article is from 12/2024, “Vet Scratch Data…”.
Grande had been dealing with a cracked heel. Grande’s X ray and PET scan both came back clean. Have not herd anything from the JC vets to give their justification for this move.
That’s correct, El K. Those who ascribe the scratch to evil intentions should at least wait for a vet statement.
Who was surprised by the scratching?
Oh so you knew it was coming, of course. What are you insinuating?
Grande also out now. I guess there was a reason for only having one workout in preparation for the Derby.
Just like that, Sovereignty is out of the 0 for forever #17 post.
Still time for another scratch or two.
Forecast for Saturday worsens by the minute.
It’s a shame with all of us looking forward to Derby Day. It happens sometimes.
I was in the infield when Justify won. Talk about miserable! It poured all day! We were under a huge tarp all day!
I’ve always thought that Post 17 was haunted by ghosts of horses past. But now we have the new 20-stall gate, so the jury is out on that.
Grande now scratched oh my
He was my pick along with Gold and Gambit.
Still not completely sold on Good Cheer in the Oaks. Take Charge Milady ran huge at Keeneland considering that speed was unbeatable at thar distance at that time. Her foot problem is my concern. And La Cara is training well and will try to wire the field. Using them both into Journalism and maybe a couple savers in the Oaks -Derby double.
Rodriguez is out and Baeza is in. Chain reaction: Sovereignty slides into the #17 post which is 0 for forever. Two ways to look at that. Sovereignty lost all chance from the unlucky post position or that the #17 post is overdue for a win. I don’t see anything wrong with the #17 post except for that bad stat. Saturday could be the day if Sovereignty can catch Journalism and East Avenue.
Thanks Steve for your work and the racing analysis. It’s been a fun ride on the Derby Trail. Goodluck to you and all the contributors with bets, and safe riding by all.
Been a fun ride? The ride is about to get more fun, it’s not over yet.
Just watched all 3 lifetime races for Grande. I see why Steve is so high on him.
I would rank them as follows in terms of talent…
1) Journalism
2) Grande
3) Baeza
TO WIN:
🔥🐷◾️
It took a minute, but I like that.
Ha!
OK, I give up, except #3, Burnham Square [Burnham Court?] – maybe. Put me out of my misery, please.
Thank you in advance.
You got it. Burn ham square. 👏
My face is red. I was trying to decipher THREE names.
Was Soverignty red hot? Which one was too fat?
Over and OUT!
I ended up “chickening out” a bit and going with my 9 year old on Sovereignty as my main pick. However I will also do a win bet on Final Gambit. With Rodriguez out now, that could make it a little harder for the closers… we shall see.
Having watched all the morning works shows, I cannot fault Journalism at all. He’s just a picture out there, and I wouldn’t be sad at all to see him win even though I won’t have a bet on him.
Okay, adding a small win bet on Journalism as well. I just can’t leave him out with how good he looks.
After Rich Strike’s victory, I said we weren’t likely to see another Derby winner with the number 21. Maybe we will.
Today on X formerly Twitter someone posted a meme of a guy with his head in his hands looking dismal and the caption read: “What do I do with Burnham Square?” Ha! I find myself feeling much the same tonight especially now that Baeza has joined the party.
Who picks up the mount on Neoequos?
Luis Saez picks up the mount on Neoequos, replacing Flaven Prat who will ride Baeza.
Bill, Thanks for the update.
Thanks, Bill. I was just wondering about that.
This something from a 1982 Derby Green, I break it out every year since. I wish i knew who wrote! I hope you enjoy it! My Horse Has a Chance If he stays sound throughout the race and If he is not interfered with and If the race goes as figured and If the track is to his liking and If he doesn’t to much outside and If his equipment break and If he doesn’t get boxed in and If he doesn’t cast a shoe and If he doesn’t get disqualified and If the MAN upstairs is with us all the way I’d have to say WE HAVE A CHANCE Thanks Steve and good luck to all! HAPPY DERBY
Terrific job of handicapping, Steve. You don’t miss a nook or a cranny when analyzing each contender on the aspects of their individual strengths,
The three horses that I will key in my exotics are: SOVEREIGNTY, JOURNALISM and LUXOR CAFE. I will refer to your analysis to fill in the lower spots on my tickets.
Thanks again, Steve, for all the hard work you put in to your weekly posts. You’ve made the Derby Trail ride a fun and educational experience for all of us. In addition to the analysis, your story telling was always a pure joy to read.
Much obliged.
May all the horses and riders come home safe.
Thank you so much Dewey. I really appreciate it.
It is amazing how every single Derby horse got fervent number of supporters… It is undestandable as they are the best 20 three-year-olds of the world…
i.e. current Derby odds show Render Judgment at a surprising 12 to 1 ! Obviously being trained by last year’s Derby trainer Ken McPeek migth be attracting early money but Render Judgment would very likely be at more than 30 to 1 by post time…
Journalism continues to be seen as a reliable Derby favorite. If you follow the details of the NTRA pools you would notice that all its 30 journalists and broadcasters voted for Journalism as the top 3-year-old in their last ranking (J.N. Cambell had Tappan Street as his first-place horse and Journalism in second).
This unanimous outcome has never happened before (at least since 2013). Even American Pharoa got only 22 votes out of the 42 voters… Dortmund gathered 18 votes in that NTRA pool before the Derby.
The closest 3-year-olds tallies to that of Journalism were Essential Quality (31 out of 37) and Forte with 31 votes out of 36 voters.
So, it is no doubt in the mind of those pundits and the majority of the fans that Journalism is the best horse in this Derby.
However, as everyone knows, being the most accomplished 3-year-old does not warrant being the best on Derby day.
After all, if the greatest runners of all time like Native Dancer, Bold Ruler, Damascus, and Holy Bull could not prevail in the Derby, one cannot be absolutely confident abouth Journalism being a sure thing.
The numerous uncertainties around the Kentucky Derby make it the best betting race in America… and, that makes Steve fishing for longshots a funny and worthy exercise.
I am starting my quest for hitting something with a $60-Trifecta box:
7-Luxor Cafe (13/1), 8-Journalism (7/2), 9-Burnham Square (17/1), 12-East Avenue (31/1), 18-Sovereignty (10/1)
The Superfecta should contain a key horse to make it affordable.
So, it would be 8-Journalism for 1st and 2nd with:
7/9/12/18
3-Final Gambit(16/1)/7/9/12/18
3-Final Gambit(16/1)/7/9/12/18/16-Coal Battle (27/1)
This is a $64-Superfecta …
May all the horses and jockeys have a safe trip and remain healthy before, during and after the Derby…
I’m liking your support for East Ave. I too am coming around on him. If he gets the lead and it’s not as hot a pace as most are expecting he may just hang around for a piece. I thought he did well when tiring on the stretch last out to battle off a few horses.
Thank for your reply NP…
I cannot understand why many pundits (speed figures driven) say that the Wood Memorial and even the Virginia Derby are better preps than the Blue Grass. Not having accurate track biases make speed figures misleading…
They don’t like that the margin between first and last is only 4 lenghts but fail to acknowledge the high quality of all the runners in the Blue Grass.
Anyway, I see both Godolphin horses in an upswing going to the Derby…
Hey Nelson
I really like Final Gambit as well, his late pace figure of 112, that he earned in his Jeff Ruby Steaks win, was awesome. The big question, will he be able to replicate that performance over Churchill’s dirt track? Based on recent works on dirt he certainly appears that he’ll do quite well.
I’ll key Final Gambit and Journalism on top in the first two slots, with Luxor Cafe, Grande, East Avenue, Sandman and Sovereignty under in the 3rd and 4th slots.
3,8/ 3,8/ 7,10,12,17,18/ 7,10,12,17,18.
Good luck Nelson.
Oops, I forgot to include Baeza in that super p/w wager. I’ll drop East Avenue and use Baeza in his place.
3,8/ 3,8/ 7,10, 17,18,21/ 7,10,17,18,21. I probably flip that over and play the following.
7,10,17,18,21/ 3,8/ 3,8/ 7,10,17,18,21.
I assume that PP 20 will harm Baeza chances …. Owen Almighty to his left will make difficult for Baeza to save ground the first turn…
Anyway, Baeza with Flavien Prat will be always a good bet especially on the bottom of the Exotics…
Hi Bill…
I can picture Final Gambit “inhaling” a lot of horses in the final turn (he is a great mover on the bends) especially if he runs free of traffic troubles. Also, I believe that he is a dirt runner …
I see you have Sandman who is very popular with the betting public (at 5 to 1 right now).
I might be making some “crazy” bets using Chunk of Gold, Citizen Bull and Publisher somewhere…
Good luck in all your bets this fantastic weekend Bill…!
Steve, I only lost the trifecta last year by moving Mystik Dan underneath for this horse, and do not wanting to get burned again, but will we see a similar race from American Promise as Just Steel’s KD effort? Two 17 hand Lukas monsters out of Justify. JS had a few 8 or 9 with a couple 1 or 2 on thorograph, similar enough to AP. Very similar post positions. We know AP can have trouble out of the gate, and JS didn’t get out clean in the derby, bounced around and used up energy to get to the front. JS sat in a great position, but when he needed to add a gear around the far turn there just wasn’t anything there. Is this too simplistic? I really wish American Promise had last raced in one of the other preps.
I can’t remember, with the scratch of Rodriguez in p/p 4, will that gate remain empty, or will the horses move in one stall?
Anybody
Bill, they all move up one stall, but retain their original program numbers with Baeza being no. 21 for betting purposes.
Thanks for the reply, Dewey
That’s what I thought but I couldn’t remember for sure.
Good luck with your selections.
THEY ALL MOVE IN
Not 100 pct sure but I believe the inside three will move out…for sure that whole will not be empty….
I believe you are correct. The one hole will now be empty, Citizen Bull moves to the 2 hole.
Current odds after Rodriguez scratch:
Two longest shots Owen Almighty 40-1
Neoequos 52-1
Maybe Rich Strike effect, since his win, longshots have been getting bet in major races…We don’t see ’99-1′ on tote board any more!
Render Judgement is 12-1 and American Promise also 12-1…not understanding why Render is getting bet so much…
Baeza currently 36-1, definitely worth a win bet at those odds, even with outside post…
QUARTER CRACK POPPED THURSDAY MORNING WITH BLOOD COMING OUT ON RENDER JUDGEMENT…DISGRACEFUL IF CONNECTIONS RUN THIS HORSE….CONNECTIONS SHOULD BE ASHAMED
Thanks for the update …
If the veterinay protocols are in place Render Judgment should be withdrawn …
Agreed!
Forte was taken out for a lot less than that.
TP andrepole were trying to run an injured horse….in a very shady, sneaky way…i suspect McPeek to scratch this horse…and unlike TP he wont need the track vet to tell him…
Dom, if I were Kenny McPeek, I’d not only scratch the horse, I’d also tell the owners to take a hike and remove their horses from my stable. The horse comes first, period.
Agree!
you dont know most horses have this…? let trainers train
And hey presto, Baeza is in, Rodriguez out.
I’m liking Sovereignty, Burnham Square, Luxor Cafe and perhaps Baeza. Journalism clearly would be no surprise, but not feeling him for whatever reason.
Now that Baeza has drawn in, all of my win wagers in Pool 6 are still alive.
Baeza, at 53-1, ($50.00 to win)
Final Gambit, at 30-1, ($50.00 to win)
Luxor Cafe, at 19-1, ($50.00 to win)
Owen Almighty, at 48-1, ($50.00 to win)
Grande, at 46-1, ($25.00 to win)
In addition, I have a few $2.00 exacta box wagers that look damn good as well.
I boxed Sovereignty with Baeza, Final Gambit, Grande and Owen Almighty.
I have Journalism boxed with those same four.
I have Citizen Bull boxed with those same four.
I have Luxor Cafe boxed with twelve horses (too numerous to name).
Lastly, I boxed Journalism and Sovereignty in a $50.00 exacta wager.
In the event that those two finish 1st and 2nd, the exacta payout would be $2,825.00 or
$2,550.00 (depending on the order of finish).
Needless to say, I’m very happy that Baeza made the Derby starting gate. 🙂
Awesome bets, Bill!
Best of luck; Hope you cash your exactas!
Thanks, biggy312.
Good luck to you as well.
BTW, refresh my memory, who is your top selection?
Thanks Bill
My best futures chance is $125 on Journalism at 51-1 in futures. Can cash for $6,374
I have a bunch of trifectas down now with Journalism keyed with Baeza in first and 2nd position.. Also another set with just Journalism keyed in 1st, 2nd and 3rd…
Yeah, now I remember you had a Futures bet on Journalism at 51-1, but didn’t know you planked down $125.00.
That’s an awesome bet biggy312.
May the Derby Gods smile down on Journalism.
Best of luck on that Futures bet.
Thanks Bill!
That’s a dizzying amount of bets, Bill. May you cash as many as possible!
Thanks, Ms Blacktype.
I hope you cash as well.
I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s Kentucky Oaks, just to see if Good Cheer can remain undefeated.
I plan on keying her on top, with Ballerina d’Oro, La Cara, Tenma, Take Charge Milady and Quiteside underneath in a $1.00 super p/w wager.
11/ 6,7,9,10,14/ 6,7,9,10,14/ 6,7,9,10,14.
I’ll flip that over and play: 6,7,9,10,14/ 11/ 6,7,9,10,14/ 6,7,9,10,14 (in hopes GC will finish at least 2nd, which would pay more. I like Simply Joking and Fondly, but as they say, you can’t play them all.
Steve, Agree on a Meltdown Trifecta, but I would swap Journalism for Sovereignty, and keep Sandman and Tiztastic. Maybe a mistake with Journalism and not Publisher. Not sure how Rodriquez being out and possible rain will mess with all of it. Not that Rodriquez was going to win, but would surely insure a meltdown. Like the experience of Sandman and Tiztastic. Gonna need it with such a big field.
All
Disregard All
Rodriguez has been scratched … Baeza is in!
Sorry Northern Prancer had already posted that …
Steve, thanks so much for taking us along on this fabulous journey and giving us insights we wouldn’t be able to find anywhere else. I appreciate the community on here, the more so since a dear friend of mine and fellow racing fan died last fall. It’s great to have a place to share our love of the sport.
Thanks for all your contributions
After weeks of watching preps, studying pedigrees and watching workouts, I’ve finally narrowed my exacta box down 19 horses, which of course is way too many, so I’m just waiting to see the weather on Saturday to make a more manageable 18 horse box.
I had to laugh at that, even though I’ve eliminated half the field myself. Likely to have overlooked a key horse that way.
Same, Jay. I am down to 16 by tossing horses with an underlying physical issue, an ethical complication that does not allow me to think well of the program (which is no reflection on the horse, just a way to pare it down AND be catty in private), or that I just cannot bring myself to trust.
Now, weather, sweating, acting idiotic in the paddock or parade, looking dull in said, and well-timed and healthy looking BMs will guide me further. It’ll be too late to place any bets by the time I decide, which may involve the stretch run. Or the gallop out.
LOL. I use a weed whacker..
It’s starting to look more like Journalism, Sovereignty, Burnham Square ex/tri box!
I sure do hope you win. 🤞🏼
Steve, I am a first time reader and cannot begin to tell you how appreciative I am for your thoughtful and provoking insight of the coming race. My head, indeed, has stopped spinning and now my focus turns to possible bets I will pursue Saturday. Thanks so much for the your insight.
I appreciate that Ray. Thank you very much.
Hi Steve. Always look forward to your Derby analysis. Am hoping Sandman can hit the board and they all get home safe. Fingers crossed…
With the scratch of Rodriguez, I like Journalism more. It also helps Citizen Bull a little. Baeza shows a lot of promise. He has improved every race. The fact is, Journalism was never in any trouble in the Santa Anita Derby and if Baeza improves he still will not beat him as Journalism has also improved every race.
I will use him but not as much as his hype suggests .
Rodriguez is out, Baeza in…
Shame, I really would have like to see how Rod would have done.
Preakness benefits
Oh man, now I really do have to tri-box the Grand, Gambit, Gold 3-G trio!
I just read that Rodriguez has been scratched by trainer. Baeza in if they want to go.
Rats, now the handicapping starts all over again.
The long and winding road is coming to a conclusion of sorts. Steve, you hit it out of the park…once again.
I am in agreement with Grande as the surprise package. For some reason, I can not get over the 86% win rate (last 30 years) of the double qualifiers of final fractions.
Final Gambit
Rodriquez
Sovereignty
Flying Mohawk
Grande
Journalism
Tiztastic
Luxor Cafe
Thanks. That used to be a big thing,. Check out my updated comment of Flying Mohawk in the Slop section,
With the Rodriquez scratch, it makes it easier to play 7 horses for the Tri and Super, along with some bombs underneath.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing an excellent handicapping analysis on the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
I like the way you separated the horses you like as longshots, contenders, deep closers and so on. I especially like the longshots you mentioned, which I’ll be using underneath Journalism in one of my superfecta p/w wagers, (11/ 3,5,7,10,18).
The bulk of my supers will consist of keying Journalism and Sovereignty on top in the first two slots, with five or six underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
Based on the Thoro-Graph numbers that you graciously provided, I’ll key Journalism and Sovereignty on top, with Grande (1/2), Burnham Square (1 1/2), Sandman (1 1/2), Rodriguez (2 1/4) and Luxor Cafe (3). That is: 8,18/ 8,18/ 4,7,9,10,17/ 4,7,9,10,17.
In addition, I plan on constructing several other superfecta p/w wagers, which I’m still working on.
Many thanks for all the hard you’ve put in, week after week, it is much appreciated.
edit: 8/3,5,7,10,18 (not 11/ 3,5,7,10,18)
Please excuse.
Thanks Bill. I like that bet. Good luck.
You’re welcome, Steve.
Word has it that Rodriguez has scratched. Back to the drawing board.
Good luck to you as well.
Steve: I’ve been trying to figure out this Derby without success, and you’ve expertly pointed out all the reasons why it’s so difficult. All season long, you’ve been there for us, writing brilliantly on all the twists and turns of the Derby trail. I can’t thank you enough.
Now back to figuring out betting angles. Six-horse exacta anyone?
P.S. I wish Baeza the best on making the field, but if he gets in that’ll really upset my apple cart.
Much appreciated. Thank you! My apple cart I will let loose and run in front of it.
I assume that means you’re going to play Baeza?! I think he has an excellent chance of hitting the top three. In some ways, the scratch of Rodriguez makes visualizing the race easier: now Citizen Bull will surely be gunning for the lead. Will be interesting to see whether he lasts as long as East Avenue, or if one of those two takes the lead all the way to the stretch.
Been following your derby picks for over 25 years and this one great. I was going to take journalism till I seen Beyer picks but Ill stay with him. Tanks for you do hope to see many more. THANKS ROGER
Thank you so much Roger I really apprecate all the support over the years.
Thank you Steve for all the work you have done for us on this sojourn to the Derby. We know it’s a labor of love and we pilgrims love you all the more for it! As for myself I have the utmost respect for your diligence and your eye for this endeavor. After you it’s Jon White and Gary West. My 5 horse tri-box is Journalism. American Promise, Sovereignty, Burnham Square and Luxor Cafe. Later I’ll post ” My Horse has a chance” from a 1980 green sheet that framed on my wall. HAPPY DERBY!
Thanks so much Derek. I appreciate it. Looks like we’re pretty much on the same wave length.
Terrific analysis. Thank you. Good luck with your wagers.
Thanks Tommy . Same to you
Thank you Steve for all the time and effort to share your wisdom with us.
It’s been a fun ride Jim. Thank you
Love Journalism’s mind (and build). Was afraid of Baeza, but glad he got in. Gotta be a fair contest.
Glad Baeza got in.