Kentucky Derby 2026 Pros and Cons
If you want to test your passion level when it comes to the Kentucky Derby and how much you can absord at one time, just see if you can make it all the way through this column. We promise not to quiz you afterwards, so take your time and let it all soak in. And do not do a word count. Then after you are either enlightened or even more confused, come back on Thursday for our handicapping and wagering analysis, with the emphasis on overlays and longshots, many of whom are featured in this column in great detail to give you some advanced ammunition. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Pros and Cons… And Lots More
By Steve Haskin
Because of the nature of this year’s Derby field and and how it is structured, we are doing the pros and cons differently. Rather than just down the line from favorites to longshots or by post positions and rehash everything we have discussed all year, we are going by different angles and what might be most interesting to horseplayers and fans, while featuring three horses who have a great deal more going for them than many might think.
THE UNKNOWN FACTOR
We are dividing the field into three tiers, but beginning with none of them, meaning the horses we know so little about they can’t be placed in any of the tiers. But they could be the most fascinating. So to start, we are going to look at the unknown factor.
Fulleffort (SCRATCHED) and Danon Bourbon
The cons as we all know, are that they are venturing into unknown territory and doing something they have never done. The Pros are that they are venturing into unknown territory and doing something they have never done. I will explain. I am lumping these two together because they fall under the same category (Fear of the Unknown). And you can add Wonder Dean if you wish. It has been established that there is a “Big Five” in the race, and if you listen to the experts, good luck picking out one as the winner. Some may feel it is only a Big 3 or Big 4, but we will extend it. All five (Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado, The Puma, and Chief Wallabee) have faced at least one of the other four, some multiple times. Their confrontations have resulted in three photos, a half-length, and two three-quarter-length margins. Only Renegade’s victory over The Puma was by open lengths, and the latter had a troubled trip in only his second career start. So it seems as if all of these horses are capable of beating the other four on any given day depending on who gets the best trip. And the two most dominating winners overall, Further Ado and Renegade, were beating second and third tier horses in those races. So rather than begin “pulling your hair out” trying to sort them out, consider a simple solution: turn to the unknown because you never know what’s lurking there. We do know that whatever it is, it can reward you more financially and save you the intense strain of decision making for far lesser rewards.
Can we say for sure that Fulleffort is not going to love the dirt the way Animal Kingdom did when he won the Derby in his first ever start on dirt after a brilliant work at Churchill Downs? Fulleffort’s works and his pedigree suggest that is at least a good possibility. His works at Churchill Downs have gotten better each time and his most recent work in :59 was sensational in every way with a long and powerful gallop-out. To me, his works suggest that dirt is no longer a question mark. We know he has a big turn of foot that can put himself in striking position at the top of the stretch and he can sustain it. Recently, horses have proven that coming off Turfway’s synthetic track sets them up for a big effort at Churchill Downs. But he will have to work out a trip from post 20.
Can we also say for sure that the brilliant undefeated Japanese colt Danon Bourbon, who has classy American blood all through his pedigree and is a clone of his sire Maxfield, isn’t the super horse we’ve seen in his three races and he won’t be able to dominate our horses the way he did those in Japan? He has excellent tactical speed, an explosive stretch kick, and an enormous stride that can quickly separate him from the others, even in big fields. You can refer to our March 2 Knocking on the Door and our recent feature column on him to get a better idea of who he is. You can also include Wonder Dean in this category. He has shown a toughness and resilence and a relentless stretch run that could make him more dangerous than anyone thinks. Sure you don’t know and you’re pretty much guessing, but how much do you really know about the “Big Five,” who have been trying all year to establish superiority among themselves? In other words, when you can’t decide which, if any, of the gems you’re digging for is the rare one that could make you somewhat rich, try digging somewhere else in the hope of finding one you know for sure will make you very rich.
THE OVERLAYS FROM CON TO PRO
Next we come to three horses who we are featuring, two coming out of the same race. All three were more con than pro because of certain obstacles that to us looked difficult to avoid and would hamper their chances. One of the three actually is considered by some, myself included, part of the “Big Five,” but on the fringe. Things can change quickly on the Derby trail and all three in our opinion are now very live as potential overlays. We will basically discuss their pros because their cons are way too obvious and have been discussed many times. If you insist on hearing their cons, we will mention them in the order you see below — Too inexperienced. Too slow. Lack of focus and addition of blinkers. Now for the pros.
Emerging Market
This is a colt I automatically dismissed because I could not not come to terms with any horse winning the Kentucky Derby off only two lifetime starts. But recently I remembered the 2024 Derby when a horse from Japan, T O Password, came here with only two starts, both on the front end, and barely lasted to win his second start. Then he has a terrible break, is forced to check sharply, and drops back to 18th. Amazingly, he turns from speed horse to closer and rallies from almost dead-last to finish fifth behind the likes of future champions Sierra Leone and Forever Young and far ahead of Fierceness. That should not have happened, and thinking of that performance was a real eye-opener that times have indeed changed. With that in mind I began digging deeper into Emerging Market, and everything I found led me to believe that this horse is not like other horses. He could be special enough to pull this off.
If you’re concerned that he was late getting to the races and has no 2-year-old foundation, he showed a lot in his training and was ready to debut twice, but the first time it was delayed, he broke through his stall door likely due to fireworks going on nearby and cut his chest open, and then the second time he came down with pneumonia. That meant that Chad Brown had to do something he normally wouldn’t do, and that is debut a dirt horse going two turns. He finally made his debut on February 7 going a mile and 40 yards at Tampa Bay. Instead of the gimme victory his connections expected, he wound up a slugfest with a very “live” Pletcher first-timer named Powershift, who was so highly regarded he went off as the favorite. Emerging Market, after sitting back in fifth, four lengths off the pace, engaged him turning for home and out-dueled him the length of the stretch to win by three-quarters of a length, getting a sensational 97 Beyer speed figure, 99 Brisnet figure, and a strong “5 1/2” Thoro-Graph number. Brown, knowing he was way behind and needed to get a big race in him, if not for the Derby, surely the Preakness, stretched him out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby, a huge jump for any maiden winner and something I have never seen.
Once again he put in a big move on the turn and engaged in a stretch-long speed duel with the far more experienced Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian and out-dueled him to win by a head despite getting shoved out repeatedly by the runner-up. This earned him a 102 Brisnet figure and a “2” on Thoro-Graph. How many horses can jump from a single maiden race at Tampa into a major Derby prep at 1 3/16 miles and come home his final three-eighths in a brilliant :36.71. And he did it running without Lasix for the first time and breaking from the far outside post. This is a horse who had to travel to both his races, the latter after a 14-hour van ride, and then run over a track he had never been on before. It is no surprise that Niall Brennan, who broke and trained him, said he matured early and marveled how intelligent, talented, and “tough as hickory” he always was, and how he loved to train.
I’m starting to believe he got as much out of these two races as other horses would get out of three races. So, it seems obvious to me that this colt has done things you don’t see a young inexperienced 3-year-old do. He no doubt is advanced well beyond his age and experience. He also could very well have the Derby gods on his side after Brown’s heartbreaking nose defeat in 2024. They just might have been waiting for this horse, whose broodmare sire, Empire Maker, was trained by Brown’s mentor and idol Bobby Frankel and may have been deprived of a Derby victory when he suffered a bruised foot the week of the Derby and still finished second to Funny Cide, who he had just beaten in the Wood Memorial. “I have Bobby on my side,” Brown said. “We are both owed some good luck and I want to win it for him.” So would I be surprised if Emerging Market won, even though no horse has ever won the Derby with only two starts and none as a 2-year-old? Not any more.
Golden Tempo
The Beyer figures say he is too slow, but speed figures go way beyond Beyer. From a Thoro-Graph standpoint, the blinkers did help in the Louisiana Derby, as his figures of “7 3/4…7…7 3/4” jumped to a “2 1/2,” and that is with him saving ground early, which would affect his Thoro-Graph number negatively. Also, on his Brisnet figures he is the only horse in the field (with more than two starts) who has improved his figures in every race of his career. And he topped it off with a triple-digit number (84-88-91-100). He had blinkers added in the Louisiana Derby and one handicapping tool I have always used is second race blinkers on. The blinkers were tested first time out by what I consider some questionable decisions by Jose Ortiz, a jockey for whom I have great respect. I can definitely see him improving rather than regressing off his career-best figure. This colt has been in the learning and developing process since his debut, and with his consistent closing kick and a stamina-laden pedigree top and bottom he should relish the mile and a quarter, especially after adjusting to the blinkers.
The key to the Louisiana Derby, in which he finished third, can be found watching the head-on as he closes in on Emerging Market and Pavlovian. Before that, after turning for home, the colt lost some momentum when he ducked out a bit after being hit left-handed. As he moved up to challenge the two leaders on the outside, Ortiz made an abrupt left-hand turn, steering him to the inside and crossing over some seven or eight paths all the way to the rail. While Emerging Market and Pavlovian are battling to the wire, Golden Tempo is going sideways. He still kept running strongly while pulling well clear of the others and was beaten only a length.
Ortiz told trainer Cherie DeVaux he felt the colt wasn’t gaining and liked being on the rail. He knows his horse and did what he felt was best, but watching the race several times I felt he might have had a chance to wear them down. But even with that sideways run he still ran faster (mph on GPS) the final sixteenth and three-sixteenths than the top two finishers. This colt was classy enough to win his career debut going six furlongs even though DeVaux, knowing he wanted no part of sprinting, was just hoping to see him closing ground in the stretch. His last two works were eye-openers in fast time at Keeneland, he runs well on the inside and outside, can maneuver through traffic, always puts in a big run, and looks to be just now reaching his peak. At 25-1 or higher, why not?
Chief Wallabee
At first I dismissed his chances to win once I heard Bill Mott was putting blinkers on for the Derby, something I never like to see. Adding to that was my mentioning a number of times about his habit of cocking his head to the right after turning for home, which is also something I didn’t like to see. But I kept remembering all the glowing words I wrote about him after his career debut, saying he was everything you look for in a Derby horse. So I started thinking about the blinkers and went back and watched his three races again. I didn’t pay too much attention to his head cocking in his first race because he was so impressive winning and it was his first start. But it was a lot different when he did it again in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Now it was an issue, especially for an inexperienced horse trying to get to the Derby.
In the Fountain of Youth, he traveled so many more feet than the victorious Commandment, he received a “3” Thoro-Graph number compared to Commandment’s “4 1/4.” That’s quite a difference between winner and loser, especially with the winner already an impressive stakes winner, and this only being Chief Wallabee’s second career start. But turning for home he again cocked his head to the right as he was passing the leader, Solitary Dude, on his inside, and never saw Commandment who had slipped through a huge opening on the rail and was rallying inside Solitary Dude. When Chief Wallabee finally became focused inside the sixteenth pole and straightened his head out he made one final thrust, but fell a neck short.
It was hoped the Florida Derby would be a different story. Boxed in along the inside the whole way and eager to run, he was forced to wait for an opening. At the head of the stretch, he finally was able to ease out, but there was Commandment rallying, this time outside him. Chief Wallabee turned his head out once again and kept looking at Commandment, apparently losing focus again. Commandment had all the momentum with a clear path on the outside as he began to close in on The Puma. But, as he did in the Fountain of Youth, once Chief Wallabee, again between horses, straightened his head out, he came back, battling the other two to the wire, this time beaten only a half-length.
Mott obviously felt he had to do something, even if it was drastic. He worked Chief Wallabee in blinkiers and it was the best work I’ve seen so far at Churchill Downs, as he rattled off :11 and change eighths. After five furlongs in 1:00, second fastest work at the distance, he flew around the clubouse turn another furlong in :12 flat, pulling up seven furlongs in 1:26 1/5. Even more important in a way, he came off the track bouncing and wasn’t breathing hard at all. Although it is still a bold and risky move, rather than look at the addition of blinkers as a negative I am going to believe it could actually help him turn in a more polished and professional performance. That natural talent in him has been waiting for something to let it out. Maybe this is it.
TIER 1 PROS AND CONS
Because a good deal of this has been rehashed every week in the Rankings comments, we will try to condense it as much as possible, at least at the top.
Renegade
The pros are numerous and the cons are virtually non-existent. In short, he has it all and keeps improving since his Paladin days last year, when if you remember, he actually ran down his rival before being disqualified. But he’s continued going from strength to stretch, turning in impressive speed figures, especially his “7…5…3…1 progression on Thoro-Graph since his career debut. One more similar move forward and it’s going to take a monumental effort to beat him. Whether it was because of him or his trainer and owner, Irad Ortiz gave up the mount on Commandment, Further Ado, and Fulleffort to stay on him. Since last fall, his combined record aboard those three horses is nine starts, eight wins, and a second. When have you ever seen a jockey give up that much to ride a horse on whom he is two-for-four? Let’s say that’s how good he believes Renegade is. How do you think he felt on a horse who came home his final three-sixteenths in the Arkansas Derby in an unheard of :17.70, with all splits under :06? You can add a final eighth in :11.84. Who is going to outrun a horse steamrolling like that? If you have to mention a con, other than drawing post 1, it is that the runners-up behind him this year, Wayne’s Law and Silent Tactic, are not the caliber of the main competition he will be facing in the Derby. But post 1 doesn’t bother me at all. You want a closer to save ground and he’s already there. And it’s the way he won more than who he beat.
Commandment
His pros are as simple as you can get. He knows how to win and goes out and does it every race, and in every conceivable way, whether coming through on the rail, closing on the far outside, bulling his way between horses and just shoving them out of his way, and winning by 5 1/4 and 6 3/4 lengths or by a neck and a nose. He has run five times in his career at five different distances, and he has a dominating victory at Chuchill Downs. By Into Mischief, out of an Orb mare, he should have no problem with the mile and a quarter. In short, it doesn’t matter where he is on the racetrack, he can beat you from there. It may sound odd and confusing to say he has a karate mentality, but the mental key to breaking through a thick slab of wood with your hand is to convince yourself the wood is below where it actually is. This way your power is thrust through the wood giving it more velocity. Commandment doesn’t max out his power at the wire, he runs through it, which is why he often gallops out far ahead of the others. That could also be the reason why he’s managed to win both his photos. As for the cons, and we don’t know if this is a con, but the two jockeys, Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat, who rode him to victory in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, both went off him to ride other horses in the Kentucky Derby. But like with his pros, I dont think it matters to him who rides him. Also, only if you follow Thoro-Graph, coming off numbers of “5 1/2…4 1/4…4,” he hasn’t gotten much faster and still has to make significant improvement in the Derby to be competitive with horses who have run much faster and are improving quicker.
Further Ado
His main pro is that he is the fastest horse in the race in all the speed ratings, but the con may be he will have to use that speed from post 18 to get a good position, although Brad Cox loves the post and you do want him outside horses. Not only does he have the fastest Thoro-Graph number by far (a negative-2) this year, he has run faster than all the Derby horses in their career as a 2-year-old (negative-1). Even with his expected “bounce” last year off that monster number and 20-length maiden victory, he still came back to win the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. He has a perfect stalking style for the Derby, and I actually like him better with the savvy veteran John Velazquez on him, as no one is better putting a horse in a position to win time and again. Velazquez has won three Kentucky Derbys and two of them were on horses he had never ridden before. And that brings us to what some may feel is a con, and that is Irad Ortiz going off him after an 11-length romp in the Blue Grass Stakes to ride Renegade. That very likely is due in good part to his relationaship with Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole, as well as Renegade being a horse you don’t go off. What may be more of a con is the way Ortiz rode Further Ado out vigorously to the wire in the Blue Grass, even waving the crop at him, despite having the race wrapped up at the eighth pole. With the danger of “bouncing” again off such a fast and dominating performance, you would think Ortiz would begin to ease him at least at the sixteenth pole with such a big lead. I’m not here to speculate, but I did find it curious. .More important right now is the colt’s high energy level in his works and gallops, so he is thriving coming off the Blue Grass.
The Puma
His main pro is that his trainer Gustavo Delgado is old school in that he doesn’t baby his horses, and like with many of the all-time greats, the one or ones who can stand up to his training methods are likely going to be classic-type horses who are tough and can overcome adversity. Why do you think this colt, like 2023 Derby winner Mage, can do things that others can’t, like cramming in three or four hard races at 3 without having any 2-year-old foundation, and still peak in the Kentucky Derby. Like being able to lose tons of ground on both turns, as The Puma has done, and still be able to launch a big run turning for home and come within the narrowest of noses of winning both the Tampa Bay Derby and Florida Derby, the latter only three weeks after his hard-fought victory at Tampa. Looking at “The Big Five” we alluded to, The Puma is the only horse to accomplish what he has while facing the other four, and at least one of them in every race. His Thoro-Graph numbers have steadily improved from an “8” to a “4” to a “2 1/2.” Another similar move in the Derby puts him in a big position to win. His Beyers show a similar pattern, going from an 83 to a 94 to 100. Some may feel his funky action, paddling his left leg, can be a con, and while it is something I prefer not seeing, it hasn’t affected him in any way so far. Also, all his races have been in Florida, but, again, they have been on two totally different surfaces. Yes, he’s won only one of his four starts, but it still looks to me like he won the Florida Derby and it sure fooled his connections and many others.
TIER 2 PROS AND CONS
With Emerging Market, Fulleffort, Golden Tempo, and Danon Bourbon all mentioned already, there are only a few more who we feel belong in this category.
So Happy
Win or lose, this horse’s back story is going to be the subject of a column following the race, and I’m talking about the horse and not the connections or jockey behind the horse, which is going to be the most widely publicized story of the Derby. We have to remember that the journey to get here is the true story, and the more I look at this colt and watch his races and his most recent work, and study his pedigree, the more intrigued I am by him. I have no idea how good the California 3-year-olds are, other than they keep beating each other, and those who have traveled to the big preps back east have not done very well. So it is difficult to separate his pros and cons, but getting a close-up look at his journey and his development makes him a horse to root for and to take seriously. We have discussed his pedigree in great depth in the Rankings and he has shown the tactical speed you look for. Mike Smith is looking to become the oldest jockey at age 59 to win the Derby on the 40th anniversary of Bill Shoemaker becoming the oldest when he won aboard Ferdinand at age 54. As for this colt’s speed ratings, even that is confusing, as Ragozin has his numbers on the slow side while Thoro-Graph has his Santa Anita Derby extremely fast. In fact his Thoro-Graph pattern of “5 3/4…3 1/2…3 1/2…1/4” make him a major threat, who I believe could move forward again, with his big Santa Anita Derby number coming off a strong pairing. And he has never run a slow race. Even his 100 Beyer makes him a contender and a potential huge overlay. So choose the pros and the cons carefully and good luck getting it right. And watch out his story in the future.
Incredibolt
Boy am I torn when it comes to assessing this colt’s chances. The biggest pro I can give him is that I thought so much of him going into 2026 that I ranked him No. 3, a position he held until his inexplicable no-show in the Holy Bull Stakes. I even featured him in my column last fall on Derby horses to watch. If you consider that the only two horses ranked above him, Ted Noffey and Paladin, were both sidelined with injuries, it shows you how costly his disappointing 3-year-old debut really was. We discussed all his strengths in last year’s column and the first two Rankings, but since then, all we have to go by is his bounce-back victory in the Virginia Derby going 1 1/8 miles around one turn against a below average field. With Riley Mott deciding to go straight to the Kentucky Derby off an unprecedented seven-week layoff, it really makes it difficult to get a feel for him one way or the other. We know the talent is there, and he’s two-for-two at Churchill Downs, including a stakes victory, but is he ready to face this kind of competiion off that long a layoff and with basically only a single one-turn race under his belt?
Silent Tactic – SCRATCHED
He, like Golden Tempo, has slipped under the radar following up a promising Grade 3 stakes victory with two straight defeats. Several weeks ago, I wrote what I thought contributed to those defeats. I believe this is a horse whose big weapon is a strong quarter of a mile run, and that strong run has twice in a row been used in the wrong quarter. Instead of using it in the final quarter mile, as he did in his Southwest victory and even in his second-place finish in the Smarty Jones, in which the absurdly slow pace did him in, he was asked for that big run the previous quarter, from the half-mile pole to the quarter pole. There is no way this horse should be challenging for the lead at the top of the stretch and then have to sustain his run another quarter of a mile. This is where he should be unleashing his move. As a result, in the final, and most important, quarter he had already fired his best shot and we were watching what was left of it down the stretch. It just may be that he hung a bit in those races, as that is the way it looked. He is totally pace dependant, but if you are looking for a reason to like him, even if just in the exotics, then you can hope his connections feel the same way and will have him save that one big run so that he is coming on late instead of making his move too early and losing momentum in the final furlong.
Pavlovian
I won’t even bore you again with my personal connection to this horse, and be assured he is being looked at through an objective lens. My journey with him to the Derby may be the subject for a future column after the race when I get pangs of nostalgia and feel like writing a column for myself, while inflicting it on the readers. But there is no denying this is a most unusual horse in several ways. He will be making his 11th start and has crawled up through the ranks of Cal-bred races only to bust out big-time in open company and turn in two of the gutsiest performances seen this year on the Derby trail. No one expected him to catch and out-game Express Kid, the impressive 6 1/4-length winner of the Springboard Mile, in the Sunland Derby, but he did with a return to blinkers. No one expected a 210-1 shot in Pool 5 of the Derby Future to be able to compete with the likes of Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, and Chip Honcho in the 1 3/16-mile Louisaiana Derby, but he did and more. When Emerging Market collared him turning for home, no one expected him to withstand the challenge, but he did, battling him to the wire and falling a head short at odds of 21-1. Don’t be concerned about his slow works. That is Doug O’Neill’s style. He trains for stamina, not speed and focuses more on stiff gallops. I have no idea how he is going to run in the Derby, but am just thrilled to see him make it there, knowing he is going to give 100 percent and never give up. That is plenty.
Potente
He sure opened everyone’s eyes Sunday with that mind-blowing :57 4/5 work. But Baffert is the antithesis of Doug O’Neill, and that wasn’t even the fastest work by a California horse. This powerful good-looking colt was broken and received his early training at the same training center as Emerging Market, shades of last year with Sovereignty and Journalism. He was a stronger and muscular colt than his classmate, so Niall Brennan took things a bit slower with him. He progressed every week, and also had a great mind, and grew into a typical imposing and handsome Into Mischief, eventually selling as a yearling for a whopping $2.4 million. After winning his first two starts, including a late stretch-running score in the San Felipe, he was expected to take another step forward in the Santa Anita Derby, but when his speedy stablemate, Cherokee Nation, again broke poorly from the rail, he wound up on the lead and being dogged the whole way by Robusta, who he had nailed in the final jumps of the San Felipe. But that took its toll in the stretch and he couldn’t hold off So Happy, who he had handled with no problem in his previous start. Like so many others, I don’t know how good he is and how much he can improve. His Thoro-Graph numbers regressed in the Santa Anita Derby from a “2 1/4” to a “4,” so it’s anyone’s guess what to expect at Churchill Downs.
TIER 3 PROS AND CONS
Don’t think that Tier 3 means these are not talented horses, and it might seem strange to find the Wood Memorial winner here. But these are the horses that just look too slow right now, judging by their speed figures (mainly Thoro-Graph), to be considered potential Derby winners. Several actually are horses who are improving and are on a good pattern, but the improvement is coming too late to compete, at least on the figures, with the faster horses.
Albus
His pro is that he on an excellent pattern (“12 3/4…12 3/4…8…6 1/2”). But he would have to make a monumental jump to be competitive with the top horses, and there is nothing to suggest from his pattern that he can improve at least six points. Now, when the Belmont rolls around, and especially the Travers, it could be a totally different story. Like several others, he will need a fast pace to get into the hunt, and if you feel he does have a significant forward move in him, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him get into the superfecta.
Right to Party – SCRATCHED
I could pretty much repeat the comments made about Albus, but although he was flying at the end of the Wood Memorial to barely sneak into the Derby field in the final jump, his numbers still are slower than Albus. Yes, again, the pattern is good, as he paired up his first two starts with a “12 3/4,” and then as expected improved to an “8 1/4.” By then pairing up that number as well, a similar forward move is expected, but he would still be way behind the others. He is another who looks to have a bright future as the distances keep increasing, and he should be closing. But his time looks to be down the road.
Litmus Test
Who would have thought early on the Derby trail that this horse, considered then by Bob Baffert as his big Derby horse, would sneak into the field on entry day and be listed in Tier 3 following a dreadful performance in the Arkansas Derby. This colt has been considered special by all those close to him from the day he was born. Again, his back story was featured extensively in my January 11 column. Baffert thought so highly of him at the start of the year, and felt he was his only shot at having a serious Derby horse, he said he was going to “put him in bubble wrap.” If he did, he removed him very quickly and started pointing him to one race after another before finally debuting him in the Rebel Stakes, where he set the pace, something he’s not comfortable doing, and faded late to finish third. He remained at Oaklawn to point for the Arkansas Derby and this time he took it to the other extreme by dropping back to sixth, also not his style, and just never fired at all. He was sent to Churchill Downs with little hope of getting in the Derby. But after working five furlongs in a sharp :59 flat, he managed to get in with the defection of Chip Honcho, and so here he is, this time with blinkers added.
Intrepido
He and Potente sure engaged in a scorched earth policy Sunday by burning up the track with their five-ffurlong works. He actually went in :57 out in 1:10 and change. Make of that what you wiil. Back in the day that would have made him a toss, but anything goes today. This colt began to intrigue me following his game second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and I was considering moving him up, especially knowing he didn’t want to be battling on the lead, which he wound up doing. Given two months off, he looked to be a major threat in the Santa Anita Derby, especially with his trainer Jeff Mullins having won three consecutive Santa Anita Derbys back in the early ’90s. This time he took back to sixth in the bunched up field, stiill in striking position, but when asked for his run on the far turn he came up empty. He came back with a sharp half-mile work in :47 1/5 and it was decided to give the Kentucky Derby a shot. As we mentioned, the California 3-year-olds have been unpredictable, so we really have no idea how their Derby representatives will stack up against the horses back east.
Six Speed
I am saving him for last, and for good reason. He is the projected speed horse who is being ignored by everyone after getting run down in the stretch by Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby. The knock against him is that, having won the UAE 2,000 Guineas at a mile and two sprint races, and then failing to hold off Wonder Dean, he doesn’t want to go 1 1/4 miles. But this is to remind everyone that his pedigree is so geared toward class and stamina, if he were a closer, he would be considered a major threat stretching out to 10 furlongs. By top sire Not This Time, he is inbred to Secretariat, Northern Dancer, and Damascus, who between them have won seven Triple Crown races. And his female family is the cream of Phipps family breeding, with his dam a half-sister to the mile and a half turf specialist Imagining, who won or placed in five Grade 1 stakes. His third dam is a full-sister to Travers winner Rhythm. His fourth dam, Grade 1 Beldame winner Dance Number, is out of Hall of Famer Numbered Account, a daughter of Buckpasser. And Dance Number is a half-sister to Private Account, a two-time Grade 1 winner at 1 1/4 miles and the sire of Personal Ensign. Is that enough Phipps blood for you? Forget the UAE Derby or bet the heck out of Wonder Dean. Also, he had to fly from Dubai to England for 14 days before coming here, so he’s been training over those big gallops at Newmarket. If this horse gets loose on the lead over a more speed-conducive track, go ahead and ignore him.
Well there you have it. If you made it to the end, congratulations. Every Derby starter hopes they have your stamina.
Stay tuned for our Kentucky Derby Handicapping and Wagering Analysis posting on Thursday, April 30.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
i appreciate your thorough analysis!
Oh noes! The Puma has been scratched with a leg swelling. Delgado doing right by the horse.
Guess its now sentimental Run Happy, Danon Bourbon and Commandment for me!
Oops – I mean So Happy! Couldn’t take my eyes off of the gigantic Great White; I just wish he was a bit more exoerienced. Does anyone know if his stable name is ‘Bruce’? Got a bet with myself!
Right to Party has scratched from the Kentucky Derby. Robusta is in.
In my circle of friends (all football guys) this is the only time of year they pay attention to me…..one wants to know why KD is not run in November…..all I can say is tradition…..am I wrong
Hi Steve,
I want to add my thanks to the many others who appreciate your effort on our behalf. While I am not a bettor, I so enjoy reading your pieces (the inisght and your prose – no cons at all).
Thanks also for getting me through another long Winnipeg winter. Our temperature was barely above freezing last night. Ahh, but thoughts of the Derby keep me warm. I hope you and your wife get away after the race to rest and reflect on another year of analysis and prognosticating.
greg (in Winnipeg) . . . Fan of Damascus
Steve, just curious, where do you watch the Derby. Do you go to Churchill every year?
Not anymore. After 25 Derbys doing lead coverage for DRF and Blood-Horse and all the crowds, chaos, and commotion that was enough. I started going down two weeks before the race and it was exhausting. But I loved it except for Derby Day. From 5 a.m. to 10 p m.. Now I am content watching it on TV with my wife. And no driving 11 1/2 hours home on Monday.
When asked, Bailey said if he could ride any horse in the Derby he would choose Further Ado.
Love you, Steve. Thanks for the write up. I am your fan. C.
Thank you. I appreciate it.
Good news for serious handicappers? Right to party will be the popular cash burner this year for the once a year folk partying and too buzzed to pretend to handicap. All legit horses odds benefit. Racking my brain and hoping to remember some names of horses with no chance but names that got bet over the years.
Steve, this young codger (at heart) has enjoyed your work for so many years that I recall actually calling you a “young punk writer” to my wife, years ago when you wrote something contrary to my absolutely – 100 pct, I am right “conviction.” You are the “soundtrack” of my horseracing life. I am a pedigree nerd and you spruce it up with color instead of mere cold stats. I am so grateful for your painting pictures with words that Peb would not only be jealous of but celebrate. You seriously have outdone yourself this year. Phenomenal derby trail analysis and I thank you. Please keep working /sharing as you please and as often as you like. YOUR VOICE MATTERS in any form/forum. Mooch
Wow thank you so much Dan. That means a lot to this old punk, who is still young at heart. If I knew you were such a nice guy I never would have upset you and I’m sure your wife. Ive been trying for over 40 years to make it up to you. Thank again for telling.me I succeeded.
Just like Mike Smith, Javier Castellano and John Velazquez have become solid contenders by the building of a strong foundation from years of racing, so too does Pavlovian enter the biggest race in this country with what is the strongest foundation in the race. I’m tired this week of Royalty and wealth being the center of attention. I am rooting for the little guy, the offspring of a $4K stud fee sire, who has earned his way here with hard work and strong foundation building. I am hoping he gets a clear smooth path to the front, while the favored royally bred have to use their energy up jockeying for position and then falling short when trying to run down the poor peasant horse, Pavlovian. Once you choose hope, anything’s possible.
Interesting take, Comrade predict.
There are three Hall of Fame jockeys competing in this Kentucky Derby.
Mike Smith with So Happy, John Velazquez with Further Ado, and Javier Castellano on The Puma are all in a good position to win the run for the roses.
Further Ado and So Happy are the fastest horses on paper and Javier Castellano is brimming with confidence about The Puma’s potential. I see their Hall of Fame riders as a big plus.
I am rooting for John Velazquez to win his fourth Derby and tie Bill Shoemaker as the second winningest Jockeys in its history.
Mike Smith and John Velazquez forged and tempered their craft by knocking elbows with legends like McCarron, Pincay, Pat Day, and Cordero. They both honed their skills and built their brilliant careers by winning epic battles against a myriad of other Hall of Fame riders.
Authentic and Medina Spirit felt the magic touch of Johny V. and what Mike Smith did with Justify was the apotheosis of racehorse riding. When it comes to the Derby they are like magicians that transform chaos into rhythm and pressure into flow.
John and Mike are tough, disciplined and gifted riders still winning at the highest level. Their performances lately with Class President and So Happy prove they are ready to excel again this Saturday at Churchill.
You may say that rooting for the Hall of Fame jockeys is a case of “emotion decides and logic justifies” but in this edition of the Derby the gap between emotion and logic is very narrow indeed.
Nostalgia does not win bets but a trifecta of Hall of Fame riders looks solid in the private chambers of my mind.
We’re fortunate to see posts regularly from you. Your writings are a must read. Thanks!
Thank you Robert.
Good read, Nelson
Question: Do you intend to box those three in your trifecta wager, or key one on top, with the other two underneath?
The Super Hi-5 payout in the Derby is usually over the moon. So, why not wheel the three you mentioned, in the first three slots, with two underneath in the 4th and 5th slots. Cost: $12.00 dollars.
I intend to play 3 or 4 Super Hi-5 wagers. I just might add your top three with two underneath that have yet to be determined.
Even though Renegade is stuck in the one hole, I don’t intend to give up on him. I’m very high Danon Bourbon and of course Further Ado.
I’ll wheel those three on top in the first three slots, in one of my Hi-5 wagers, with two underneath that have yet to be determined.
In another Hi-5 wager, I’ll wheel Emerging Market, Potente and Commandment on top with two underneath.
Keep in mind that these Hi-5 wagers only cost $12.00, so why not take a shot with a few combinations.
Good luck, Nelson.
Thanks Bill.
I plan on playing a Trifecta box with Further Ado, So Happy, The Puma, Commandment, and Renegade. These are the key horses for my tentative Superfecta … I will wait till Saturday to finalize the combination but I intend to include Danon Bourbon, Incredibolt, and Fulleffort as my longshots at the bottom.
The state vets will likely be scratching some other horses if they feel some tenderness here and there, or if they don’t like how a horse walks or gallops despite any argument against it by the people who really know their horses … go figure!
Good luck to you as well Bill.
Quarter cracks are part of the game, Sunday Silence ran with a big quarter crack, as I recall….
Unbridleds Song also….
Sunday Silence was my bride to be horse in 89. The game needs more trainers like Charlie Whittingham.
Charlie was the real deal!
We lost Paladin a while back…the field has managed to stay primarily in tact…now Silent Tactic….
Still, that’s not bad, at all….now only need to survive the protocol vets …the five minute look over ….
This morning on the kentucky.com morning works show 3 analysts Kiliroy, Scully, Rene Carothers all picked the derby 1-5 and none had Further Ado in their top 5.
Yesterday during the CD races on FDTV Collumus said his pick to win is Further Ado.
They don’t know any better than we do. Although, I do listen to what Rosie Napravnik has to say.
Yes. She’s very insightful.
I wonder how big the Japanese crop of three year olds is…that would help to inform how strong those Danon Bourbon fields are ..because he looks like a real good horse…I’m bullish, on Maxfield as a sire, being a son of Street Sense, whom I like as a stamina influence…
I also like that he avoided
the Dubai ship ..
We can see how his half brother Englishman dies in the Pat Day!
Does
I’m not sure the reason, but “half brother” is only referenced, if it’s the same dam…I do like Englishman…he drew very poorly, but his work pattern screams to me! Cruel Velocity was a bargain purchase, has everyone out here talking about his ability…I like Englishman, it looks like a great race!
Oh.I didn’t know that.
Still if he skips over the track like Danon Bourbon,.Would be meaningful.
Maxfield loved the Churchill track surface…..
Just realized Wonder Dean’s jockey rode Forever Young in the Derby last year.
Things that make you go hmmm…
Correction, two years ago.
I can’t wait for Steve’s handicapping column tomorrow, but it will be used to round out my exactas/tris/supers. I am all in on Danon Bourbon. We all know that the Japanese horses have the talent and training acumen to win the Derby but it is the pedigree that makes this one special. The sire influences throughout are phenomenal but shared by many of the field. What I am fascinated by is the 2X with Terlingua and Weekend Surprise, leading to Big Red all over the sixth generation. And not just Big Red, but Big Red through what I believe are his two top daughters… I see Danon as the only horse in the race who will be able to overcome trouble – and there is always trouble in the Derby…
Silent Tactic scratches out, foot bruise, Great White draws in.
Golden Tempo next?
Does that scratch move Further Ado to post #17?
Yes it does, Biggy. Every horse from the 14 to 20 stall moves in one and Great White occupies stall 20. Program numbers are not affected.
Thanks Dewey!
Yep, #17 post. Maybe i’ll put a WPS wager on Further Ado. A better bet than on Six Speed in the same post.
Good question. And should the AE be put into the 1 hole? Or should the occupier of the 1 hole get a choice of some sort? And why? Thanks
Let me guess….. you’re a Renegade fan? lol
I don’t see any problem with post 17. I know nobody has ever won from it, but I think that’s just a weird coincidence, maybe coupled with superstition. If horses can win from 16 and 18, I don’t see any reason why they can’t win from 17. Further Ado is one of my top two horses, and I don’t mind his being there,
Per Mark Casse, hopeful he will make the Preakness. Evidently an on going issue with colt.
Renegade also reported to wear special shoes due to quarter crack.
The Thoroughbred is notorious for having shelly hooves that causes different issues.
Hoping not but possible more scratches by race day.
Ocelli I think is next AE
Lynda, do you know what’s going on with Golden Tempo? Rumor has it that he’ll be the next scratch.
He has cracked heels on both front feet . Trainer is monitoring him daily. I hope he scratches as it’s the best for the horse . Not good for me , I have Golden Tempo as my all horse along with 6 Speed Pavlovian and Wonder Dean . Now I will add Incredibolt.
Forgot Fulleffort
Dewey
Thank you . I also have So Happy as a key horse with Potante . I really like Emerging Market but have problem with only 2 starts . I want to add him hope I can catch in the Preakness or Belmont . I hope you do well and have fun !
Thanks for the reply, Chris. I also was going to use Golden Tempo in all my exotics. If he scratches, I will add Fulleffort.
I must say, you have some hefty prices with your five picks. Hope you score big. Good luck!
Hi Dewey, no I do not.
Have not read anything.
Always done truth on a rumor though
Thanks, Lynda. Yes, rumors at the track usually pan out to be true.
Odds are adjusting with more money in the pool:
Renegade/FA co-favorites at 5-1
Puma 6-1
Commandment /SH 7-1
DB 13-1
EM/CW 14-1….I would bet CW at 14-1 if he stays at those odds
FE 20-1
Wonder Dean getting bet: currently 19-1
Odd or even? That’s the question on the minds of most serious handicappers today.
The “Even-Stevens” get Commandment(6), So Happy(8), “The Chief”(12), Potente(14), Further Ado(18), and Fulleffort(20). All the Brad C runners. And BB puts a cherry on the top of that sundae with Litmus Test(4)(50-1 ML).
The “Odd-balls” have Golden Tempo(19), Emerging Market(15), Silent Tactic(13), The Puma(9), Danon Bourbon(7), and their Ace-in-the-hole, Renegade(1) breaking from the one-hole. Renegade will carry the weight of Todd Pletcher’s 2 for 65(3%) Derby record on his shoulders. Steve Asmussen(0 for 26, 0%) would say “that ain’t so bad”.
Churchill Downs has resurrected Odd/Even wagering to bring new customers to the game. Who can question anything that Churchill does? CDI was trading at $99.79 as of just 5 minutes ago. If they believe that bets like the Octafecta and Odd/Even will save the sport, God Bless them.
Let’s take a closer look. Churchill ran yesterday. I checked the Odd/Even betting for the day. There were a few $3+change payoffs, but mostly $2+change payoffs. Hmph! Not as exciting as I thought. It’s like betting 1-2 or 3-5 shots all day. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe new patrons are lining up to get their Odd/Even wagers in.
If he were asked to comment, I can imagine Steve Asmussen saying something like “I got your ‘Even-Steven’ right here”.
Speaking of Steve Asmussen, America’s winningest trainer, he doesn’t have a horse in this year’s Derby. Not one. Hard to believe with all that donut-money spent buying Gun Runners. Maybe next year.
CDI (Common Dense Individuals), they encourage Head-to-Head, Odd-Even, Super Hi 5 and Preakness Futures and the Octafecta…and then shut down any superfecta wagering under a $1 minimum saying it creates long lines, their clerks can’t handle the insanity. LOL. You can’t just lower it to 50 cents? How much is a mint julep this year? I can never believe just how many of those empty souvenir glasses are just strewn and stacked everywhere by the time the race goes off and how many individuals are comatose lying in the fetal position during the playing of ‘My Old Kentucky Home’.
Rob, a friend who went every year switched to Oaks day for the exact reasons you listed.
I switched to Oaks in the 90″s and that secret lept out of the box 20 years ago. I saw $3 pick 3’s opening day at Churchill as well. I thought the new tech was supposed to make things easier. Oh well.
Silent Tactic out, bruised foot.
Great White is in
The winnowing seems like an unstoppable wave on this group!
Ouch!Had him and Potente in pool r.would’ve paid 3700
Pool 4
No trainer has ever swept first, second and third place in the Kentucky Derby. Is this feat possible this year provided Cox’s trio each get a clean trip?
That would be one for the ages!
Definitely
I certainly think it’s possible. They are three of my top four, but I think Renegade has to be in there somewhere. Right now I put Renegade first, followed in order by Further Ado, Commandment, and Fulleffort. But those are all fantastic horses–any of them could win and all of them could perform extremely well.
Just a suggestion on betting the Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Daily Double.
#9, Always a Runner in the Oaks, with #7, Danon Bourbon in the Derby.
Numbers Superfecta bet: So Happy (8), Commandment (6), Litmus Test (4) and Danon Bourbon (7),
I concur.
Very early win odds from twinspires:
Renegade, Puma 5-1
SH 7-1
Commandment, FA 8-1
EM, DB 13-1
CW 14-1….I like those odds
FE 19-1
Steve I have been following Fulleffort even since his impressive maiden win at KD albeit on turf when he ran down a loose leader on what many consider a heavy track surface.
Interesting that Brad has worked him 4x since the Ruby Stakes so you know he is feeling good.
I actually like the post. Based on his beyer progression and the fact that he is bred for distance look out if he is close turning for home.
Every work has gotten significantly better each time. His last was fantastic,.
Just for the hell of it, I have Further Ado followed by Emerging Market and in third, The Puma. They will have to escape the insanity of the stampede at the start. Thanks to Steve for all of his work and talks of pros and cons.
A simple thank you is not enough Steve. Your insight and vast knowledge make for enjoyable reading. Sometimes thanks to you I pick the winning horse. If I don’t there is always next year. I always look forward to reading your articles. Thank you
I appreciate that Steven. Thank you very much.
I just received the Ragozin numbers. Some startling differences with Thoro-Graph. Will go over them in Thursday handicapping column
I sit with baited breath. I always bait my breath when I am fishing for compliments! On a road trip from Michigan to Ky in the morning. I hope to read your column (I am not driving) to pass the time.
In the very early betting The Puma is the 7-2 favorite. Prom Queen at 9-2 is the early Oaks betting favorite. Always A Runner’s odds dropped to 6-1, I like her, but I do like PQ too and there are many possibilites in the Oaks.
Further Ado has been the #6 horse his last three races.
What’s 6 + 6 + 6?
What # is he in the Derby?
Now that’s handicapping. 😉
Numerology at its finest.
Steve,
I must commend you on the superb job you have done on previewing the runners on this year’s Kentucky Derby. You have really done your homework.
Something this year that I have found unusual for me from previous KD’s and that is I have not seen a bad workout from any of the horses. Each horse is looking like they will be ready for their best efforts.
Right now for myself I have narrowed the field down to 7 horse that I feel have the best chances of winning the KD and they are: Renegade….. the Cox trio of : Commandment, Further Ado , and Full Effort…. Danon Bourbon….. So Happy and Rotente. I am looking at an EXACTA play with all of them on top and all them for second which I am contemplating on adding for 2nd are Chief Wallabee and The Puma and possibly adding in Emerging Market (gosh he looks so good out there) but worried with only 2 races under his belt and his foundation to be able to go 1 1/4 miles. Will not add Golden Tempo (especially with the weeping qtr cracks) or Silent Tactic who got the jump on Renegade in the Ark Dby but couldn’t beat him. I just feel they just are not fast enough.
Some people out there think that Renegade with the one post is at a disadvantage but I see like you do Steve that shouldn’t be an issue and when I went back and looked at the Sam Davis and Ark Dby Irad had him near the rail going into the first turn. I think Irad down the back stretch will try and angle him to the outside like he did for both of his previous 2 races.
Commandment and Further Ado both look confident out there at CD this week. Some were critical of Irad ride on Further Ado at the end of the BG stakes but this horse does not show any ill affects from it. In fact I think it helped his foundation for the KD. Commandment what presents he shows out there … you got to love him.
Danon Bourbon looks too like the CD racing surface as he is so light on his feet and he just seems to prance on that racing surface. So Happy who is known to not be a great worker in the morning had a nice work nothing earth shattering but in his work he did show something to me that I liked and that was just after the turn into the stretch Mike Smith gave him a little chirp and horse responded and then Mike did not ask for any more and just rode him out and he galloped out strong. Potente’s work was a thing of beauty and he did it easy. and horse that is coming into his own This is the kind of work I like to see for a horse that will be either mid pack to closer. If Hernandez puts him near the front I am afraid he will hang in the stretch and the same could be said for Mike Smith on So Happy. I am hoping for a mid pack trip for both.
For Commandment a mid pack to closer trip and Further Ado I expect him to be back 5 to 6 lengths off the early pace going into the first turn. Renegade and Full Effort trailing the pack going into the first turn. Both have great riders who seem to have a knack of finding the finisher line at the end.
This is the way I see it for the Tuesday before the Big race. I don’t see it changing much unless there some major injuries or late scratches as the horses left on the AE list don’t excite me.
All out there have good luck this coming Saturday. and Steve once again as always great job on your KD top 12.
Stated two weeks ago if Renegade drew the rail……. deal breaker! He did.
Explain Mike why any other post position would be better for him?
You’ve got to be joking, Down. A twenty horse field drawing the rail- unlikely to hit the board.
That is not my question. . Tell me how another post position would make it better for him? I could see it being a a disaster a horse like So Happy, Danon Bourbon or Chief Wallabee. The biggest detriment for Renegade in a 20 horse field is his running style but he has a great jockey and a quick turn of foot. That is what I am banking on
Go ahead and bet the farm, please! You don’t think Pletcher wouldn’t trade post with The Puma? Baffert always cries when drawing the rail.
It is going to take a whole lot of energy to get through the mess of the start. Not to mention getting pushed around and bumped. With the 2026 field of high achievers, it will be tough.
Thanks! Seems you can “see the forest for the trees”. On point when regarding energy used…… a biggy!
Also waiting in the starting gate for the other 19 to load.
The MAIN problem with the rail draw…was with the twenty horses, the rail began on the elbow…and THAT is no longer a problem, horses from the rail no longer need to jump out of there and move over, they have adequate room NOW ….
Any other post position is better simply because is not the 1 hole….
Correct Dominic! No one wants to draw the rail.
Renegade drew the 1 hole, probably take back for his one run. Most likely bet bumped running towards the clubhouse turn. Nobody mentioned kickback. How will he handle that either dry track or muddy? Irad’s what 0 for 8 or 9 in this race? I believe Renegade can get a 4th or possibly an ITM placing. I just think the #1 gate 40 year curse continues.
Good comments ChiefsCrown!
First of all I won’t be betting the house on him as if you read my post I will be betting an exacta spread over 6 other horses. 2nd with the “new ” starting gate the #1 post is not the enigma it used to be. 3rd. If Renegade loses the KD it won’t be because of the post position he has drawn but it will be his running style (closer) that will be his biggest obstacle.
He loses the race if Irad decides too push him near front at the beginning of the race ( I don’t expect that) 2ND, HE gets an inordinate amount of traffic issues during the race ( this is possible with a 20 horse field) 3rd, Irad moves him too quickly in early part of the….. with a closer timing is everything !!! .
I ask everyone here to go to YOUTUBE and watch the 1986 KD derby when Ferdinand (who was a closer) won the KD out of the one hole with the disadvantage of the then split starting gate…. This is how you win out of the one position. That is why I say with Renegade (in fact all closers) it is not the post position… it is the ride !!!!
One other way Renegade can lose the Kentucky Derby ( and this is true for the other 19 horses ) ….. he wakes up with a headache !!!
You’re always right, so go ahead and bet him.
Good stuff. Thanks
Thanks Steve
Was just reading Todd Pletcher’s comments on Renegade wearing “three-quarter shoes” on both his front feet in the Derby. Pletcher said it was the way he was shod in the AR Derby- he said the colt has dealt with quarter cracks during his career & that by wearing the three-quarter shoes, they help “relieve pressure off the inside quarter and hopefully prevents any issues.” Can anyone shed some light on this condition? Obviously, it hasn’t seemed to affect his performance this year.
Could be why it took him so long to work.
Thought the same thing Steve when I read the article about his “shoeing”.
I am not going to abandon Renegade now. His last two races were the most visually impressive, and his turn of foot in the stretch is the best. And i don’t care about the rail. I am concerned that he is being nursed into the race, much the way i felt Smarty Jones was nursed up to the Belmont, and we know what happened there. So i’m less confident than i would have been.
The farriers barely ever get credit when various Thoroughbreds succeed despite troubled feet. Steve always reminds us of their names when they patch up a good one, though!
If you are Mike Repole or Todd Pletcher, are you just holding your breath any time you see a track vet come your way? I’d have a special stomach ulcer reserved for interacting with them.
The farriers can do some magic, sometimes. By today’s standards, i doubt Touch Gold would be allowed in the gate as he was in the 1997 Belmont after losing a huge chunk of his hoof in the Preakness. But they patched him up and Silver Charm didn’t win the Triple Crown. Touch Gold was really good, but he was never the same after the Belmont.
I spotted The Puma with his paddling left leg that Steve Haskin pointed out.
I can remember Vekoma with his paddling right leg having a terrific career. Pretty short career. If I remember correctly, Vekoma was more of a 7-furlong type or miler. He was fast, but you couldn’t help noticing that right front leg.
I can’t remember ever seeing a BB horse with a ML of 50-1. Litmus Test is 50-1 on the ML.
Well deserved IMO. Litmus Test will be putting the blinkers back on after his horrible run without them in the Arkansas Derby.
Clearly, BB envisions a scenario where Litmus Test goes to the lead with Potente stalking on his flank.
Just see Potente’s last work at CD
It was fast. Too fast just days before the Derby? We’ll see.
Is Litmus Test BB Median Spirit this year ?!?!?! We will know this Saturday.
That should have been “Medina Spirit”
Wishful thinking.
LT is a nice horse, not sure he’s a distance horse.
One more comment.
Watched Renegade gallop this AM on X.
Some comments that he looked sore and stabbing left hind.
Wanted to do more was all I saw.
Thoughts anyone?
Lynda,
Did not see anything wrong with his gallop today. I am sure the vets will go over every horse with a fine tooth comb.
Golden Tempo is dealing with cracked heels on both front feet but trainer Cherie Devaux doesn’t believe it will keep him from running in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
I wonder how the track Vet will approach this issue. It would be a shame if Golden Tempo is a late scratch.
Just read Forever Young has been entered in the Ascot.
By jove, that’s good news, Lynda. I thought that he was close to retirement, but Mr. Yoshida must have seen a sign that Forever Young was not ready to retire just yet.
Can’t wait to see him run again. Thanks for the heads up, Lynda!
Gonna also be interesting where he ends up at stud. I am betting somewhere in Kentucky. Bring home that Sunday Silence stuff.
Well here we are again!
A somewhat difficult decision on the winner because I like several.
I can only narrow down to The Puma, So Happy, Chief Wallabee. Also like Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean (a bopable nose if ever one).
I never count out Baffert’s entries. (Anyone else read he is buying a home in Kemtucky and will have have a racing stable there? Interesting).
White Shark is next on AE. Has a lot of fans. 17H grey.
Guess it just one of those years that no one horse is really has me excited.
Safe racing and good luck all!
Weather should not be a factor. Only 20% chance rain for the Kentucky Oaks. Cooler temperatures prevail all week, 62-40 Friday and 58 Saturday (Blackberry Winter) 70% rain on Wednesday.
On another note,
Enjoyed reading this post Steve as always and everyone’s comments.
Thank the Blue Heavens above that Steve Haskin has produced yet another springtime’s worth of fabulous Derby reading material! Love the springtime! Love Steve Haskin!
Stop with all these Danon Bourbon comments. Youre gonna ruin the price
John White already did.Waveed a Japanese flag on Racing Dudes.
Gerrynole
I noticed he has Emerging Market as his 2nd choice.
Why do people who love Emerging Market not like Pavlovian, who only lost his last race by a head bob.? Pav is such a fighter. He could be in a stalker position and stay out of trouble and then accelerate turning for home. Any of the 20 could honestly win. I am leaning toward Further Ado with Pavlovian in 2nd place.
Hi Jazil
To answer your question, Emerging Market is better suited for the Classic distance, much better, IMO. Emerging Market’s pedigree reflects a ton of class and stamina influence, top and bottom. In the Louisiana Derby, there was a reason that EM went off as the favorite, at 2-1, and Pavlovian went off at 22-1. Without question, Pavlovian will be one of the early pace setters, but does he have the ability to carry his speed over 10 furlongs? Very doubtful, IMO.
Thanks for answering my question, Bill. So Pavlovian outran his odds and pedigree to finish 2nd by a head bob. You could be right. Good luck this Saturday.
That’s where I have landed. Any chance we get the 20-1?
Yeah, I doubt it too.
Hi Steve,
an observation about Further Ado. His fastest races have come at Keenland. All of his other races including one at CD were average at best.
Before his last CD race, he had a fast work at CD but this time his work is just about average.
It all depends on how you look at it. I thought his last work was terrific and he looks as good moving over that track as anyone.
Have a FB friend in another country who follows horse racing around the world.
He is almost always spot on.
Further Ado is his pick to win.
I wrote the prompt “2026 kentucky derby contenders fatest last furlong” just to see the AI analysis. FWIW….Danon Bourbon, Renegade, Emerging and Pavlovian are the ones mentioned. The right click is disabled on the comptuer I’m currently typing on or else I’d have pasted the whole thing. Google it and see what all is in there.
DB also has the fastest last 3/8 with 35.8
I hope the Japanese contingent has a great time Saturday. We’ll be watching!
I think Six Speed will lead the way, don\’t know how far he will have the lead, his final 3/8 and 1/8 were on the slow side. But if he had run faster late in his last race, he would have been a major player.
Just look at his bottom ped. He has Buckpasser perfectly placed and then he has three top blue hens including Doxa, who leads all blue hens in having won or hit the board not only in the derby, but the triple crown. Doxa when I last checked around 2015 had 8 different winners of at least one triple crown race. Maybe I need to go back one day and update that figure.
You can get all that info on GPS on the Equibase website after each chart.
Fun fact…..Danon Bourbon vs Forever Young in Japan in races at the same distance of 1,800 meters Danon Bourban’s average time is 1:50 4/5 while Forever Young’s was 1:54 1/5. Let that sink in.
Oh, it’s in the vault. I’m with you Blake.
Thank you for the validation.
My Derby picks are down to eeny-meeny-miney-mo as I am so confused. I have been at Phipps fanatic since the Buckpasser era so Golden Tempo is my sentimental favorite. Now I find out that Six Speed has all that glorious Phipps blood; Danon Bourbon looks like a monster; and I would love to see Mike Smith win a Derby. Really big sigh. EMMM will probably be the way to go.
eeny-meeny-miney-mo…. hahaha
Well said Sharon. This is one tough derby.
Thanks for you’r great analysis in the work you put into this !!!
I appreciate it Doc. Thank you.
At present, my favs are CW and The Puma.
Mike R,
Saw The Puma’s foal photo. Almost perfectly balanced with muscles!
Lynda, thinking The Puma and CW are sitting on a big race.
Steve what are litmus test thorograph numbers
I didnt get that because he just popped up as a possible and now definite starter. Im sure its not too impressive. I should be getting them all soon.
Thank you for all these insights. Do you think this might be one of the most wide open Derbies in a long time? I am hoping the best for So Happy bcause of all his history, so really looking forward to your followup story. I want Runhappy to come home and go to Old Friends.
He just got there.😊
He is at Old Friends?
Steve, remember the days when the DRF looked a big as the NY Times. The Derby PP’S would take up 4+ pages with each horse with 12 or 13+ starts. Now you probably have the PP’S taking up 4 pages of the old TV Guide. You once said this is a Crap Shoot! Certainly is. I have to thank you for all your diligence and work ethic keeping us informed every week It’s one of my life’s joy clicking on your name on Tuesday morning. I only have 1 question that can only be answered this week. Who’s is in your opinion on the Blossom? Happy Derby Steve!
Thank you Derk, I sure do remember it. Hard to tell whobm is blossoming without being there but all three of Cox’s horses are thriving and Renegade looks great. Actually Most of them look in good flesh from what I can see
Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean are both going on my Tri and Super tickets
My Oaks/Derby double wager will use Dazzling Dame(7) with 1,6,7,11,14,15.,18. Saez has won the Oaks twice and looking through his list of graded stakes winners he does very well with fillies and mares. Dazzling Dame’s trainer Britany Russel wins at nearly 30%.
In addition to the wonderful insights from Mr Haskin, I also closely watch who Jon White recommends. My best Derby ever was when he was pounding the table to bet I’ll Have Another. He was also high on Forever Young. I watched his podcast on racing dudes earlier this afternoon and he is loving Danon Bourbon at 20-1 ML and likes Emerging Market as his 2nd choice. He thinks Danon Bourbon could potentially be a superstar. I am going to take a shot with him. And due to Emerging Market being sick and injuring himself in his stall as a 2 year old, he does have some foundation in him.
Nice video of Great White chowing down on the landscaping at Churchill on BH website today.
That Great White is a BIG horse! He was very fresh this morning on the track, as were a few others on the Morning Works footage. I wouldn’t be surprised if we lose another 1-2 of the current starters this week, letting Great White draw in. Tradition, mainly. 🙄
He’d be a toss
I love Great White. I wonder if he will be a slower developer like Forego was. It was reported that he was 17.2 hands tall.
Great White will run in The Pat Day Mile, as will Secured Freedom, those two are the largest horses on this year’s Derby Trail…not sure who is larger, I heard Secured Freedom was 1350 lbs in Feb…..
He is a big, beautiful boy!
I saw a video of Renegade out on the track today. I will add him to my list of “good-lookers” joining Emerging Market and “The Chief”.
Looks aren’t everything and I doubt that there is a Sovereignty in this year’s race.
Powershift, the horse that Emerging Market beat in his first race, will be running in the first race on Saturday. Powershift drew the #11 post at a mile and a sixteenth which isn’t ideal. But it could give us some insight into EM’s chances.
Powershift “bounced” out of that first effort with a 96 BSF before finishing 9+ lengths behind The Puma, Further Ado, and Canaletto in the Tampa Derby.
Emerging Market might also have “bounced” out of that tussle with Powershift. His BSF going down from a 97BSF to a 90 BSF in the Louisiana Derby.
EM had his hands full and barely beat the Cal-bred Pavlovian fresh off a win in
New Mexico. Another “bad sign” is that Golden Tempo was only one length behind. And we all know how slow that horse is. No offense.
I am starting to sour on Emerging Market no matter how good he looks. I figure him for about a 95 BSF in the Derby which will be way too low to win. I would replace EM in my Derby tri with Potente if I wasn’t so worried that Potente’s latest workout was too fast just days before the Derby.
Let’s see how good he looks from the #1 post, Tommy.
I’m targeting the .50 Trifecta. And I want to wheel 1 horse (1st, 2nd, 3rd) using 13 total, which is $198.
I’ve been trying to find the strongest horse. But with 10 horses who can realistically win, I keep flip flopping on who that is.
So I’m going to say screw it, and go with who I think is the livest long shot (in hopes of cashing a big ticket). And that is… Golden Tempo.
Steve said everything you need to know above. I will just add the following…
* In the Louisiana, he spent 13 seconds running sideways. (6 at the start when he got squeezed + 7 in the stretch).
* The key is that he lost 1 length on the leaders when he ran sideways in the stretch, but he made up that length at the wire, so he was gaining again.
* He should have won the Louisiana by 1 length. And he would have been 15-1 in the derby, but now I’m getting an overlay at 30-1.
* I think he has the most electrifying closing kick of them all. Improving, waiting for the stars to align. And I think this is his race to show everyone his best.
THATS how you make some moolah! Find a longshot and stick with him!
Thanks Matthew. Btw, I do think your Potente has a great shot to win because of his prep race and that last workout. I would be happy with a Potente > Golden Tempo one two finish. Best of luck.
Steve, I have been reading and enjoying your work for a very long time. I wanted to weigh in here with something thoughtful, but in reading all of the other responses, I fear I would be redundant, so I’ll just say thank you!
Thank you William for stopping by. Anytime.
RE: G1, Kentucky Oaks, Friday, 5-1 (R13)
The race appears to be wide open, with 6 or 7 main contenders vying for win honors.
I settled on Prom Queen, last out winner of the Gulfstream Park Oaks, on Mar. 28th.
She’s a Gary and Mary West homebred, in the capable hands of Brad Cox, and will be ridden by Javier Castellano. Her sire, Quality Road, needs no introduction, nor does Tapit, her dam’s sire. Her 2nd dam, Milwaukee Appeal, was 2nd in the Alabama, at 10 furlongs. Needless to say, Prom Queen has an abundance of class and stamina, top and bottom.
That said, I’ll wheel Prom Queen on top, with Explora, Zany, Counting Stars, Meaning and Percy’s Bar underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 10/ 1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Just for the hell of it, I’ll box the Ortiz brothers in a $20.00 exacta wager. At 10-1, Always a Runner offers good value, and he’s undefeated in two starts, one of which was the G3 Gazelle Stakes, at 9 furlongs. With Jose in the saddle, anything is possible. His brother, Irad will be riding Zany, the opening line favorite, at 4-1. Boxing those two makes sense to me.
Safe trips to all.
As you are like the Thoro-Graph Figs the best. I don’t see how you have So Happy as second Tier for you.
I agree with all the Pros and Cons, well written as usual, Steve.
I love the progression of So Happy and his improvement the second time around two turns. He is my big bet.
I think the other 5 or so called big 5 are not as fast.
Potente has intrigad me a ton. I did not like him on the lead in the SA Derby. I actually love the 57 and change work, reminds me of the work Hard Spun had. Might be my 2nd bet.
I love the Japanese horses so Danon Bourbon will be used
The talent of Emerging Market and Prat can not be ignored.
A tough year, indeed!
Thanks Eric. The tiers are based on potential odds. I cant see So Happy going off the same odds as the top five. I could be wrong if they bet the story, but the top tier should be somewhat exclusive. Top 6 would be too much.
Does anyone know which horses were already qualified before running their last prep?
If I remember correctly, Sovereignty had qualified before the Florida derby, and used that last prep to trial being a bit closer to the pace on the far turn and making a move earlier, which he repeated in the KY derby.
I believe there were 2. Commandment and Potente.
The “pro”, for Further Ado is …he just looks good, in his everyday manor….the “con”—he looks SCRAWNY! The Derby isn’t kind to slender animals! You want a powerfully built horse, in a 20-horse cavalry charge! There will be bumps!
He drew WELL! Stay out of trouble, stay out of the scrum!….To me—wide trips on DIRT, aren’t nearly as bad, as wide on TURF, keep him out of trouble, he looks like one of the ones …
Remember Smarty Jones? He wasn’t so big and powerful looking
Steve, you’ve been taming chaos into order all Spring, and this is one of your best. Thank you!
For me, it has been a struggle to comprehend what’s going on with this group of sophomore colts. I literally feel like the Derby preps and training have happened in a foreign language that I sometimes think I might understand, then realize that I really, really don’t. The various defections also loom large, going almost back to the BC.
I have soft spots for So Happy and The Puma that I can’t shake, but I get dizzy every time I think I’m going to peg down my full top 5. On the other hand, I’ll stick with Percy’s Bar in the Oaks.
Katy great post! I, too am liking So Happy, he has not come out of the gate as well as he can, I look for a good break…sitting three lengths off ..then pouncing…opening up—I can “see” that!
Thanks Katy. My list of contenders is growing istead of shrinking. Not the way its supposed to go.
Hi Mathew! I think So Happy would be a lock if he had been born a filly, and was in the Oaks. Seems like recently, we get a lot of winners in that race with exported or deceased sires! I just love the way SH looked out there this week. He looks handy and fit. Breeding was an inspired pairing, to say the least.
Same here, Steve. I would love to say that I’ll sit on my hands and quietly watch it all play out, but my family would think I’d had a stroke and call 911 if I wasn’t jumping, whooping, and hollering. If I was a horseplayer, I think I’d have a bunch of cheap place bets on 2/3 of the field, and then I’d be looking around for someone more inspired to buy my dinner!
Steve a most challenging Trifecta this year.I made some adjustments after reading your pro”s and cons.There should be some interesting individual battles all with the same final goal in mind.Can’t wait!
I hope youre still not as confused as I am.
Thank you Steve… win, lose or draw you increase my appreciation of the Derby exponentially
Thank you very much Michael.
Michael, hope to be at Old Friends again sometime this year. Best Wishes!
It should be apparent to the connections of Intrepido that ten furlongs is beyond his grasp. Way beyond. Nice horse for about a mile though.
Sounds like the trainer wasn’t happy with his fast workout yesterday…I saw where someone else commented that he actually doesn’t want to run him in the derby but the owners wanted to?
I don’t know much about Intrepido, but the combination of a pessimistic trainer (often also realistic) and owners with unreasonable expectations is one of the worst scenarios for any horse. Makes me sad, because even if this isn’t the case for Intrepido, it is for many others.
Agreed!
Excellent presentation, Steve.
One question. I am becoming intrigued by the GPS data now appearing in more handicapping analyses. You mention the GPS mph data on Golden Tempo’s last race, but I haven’t seen any references to that data in your other posts.
Only recently, I have picked up on Equibase’s GPS data showing average speed, best single furlong speed, stride length and stride frequency. And I am starting to hear analyses for getting the distance based on stride length and frequency. That would seem to be relevant in the Derby. What would be even more informative would be data showing these measurements from race to race. Just as we compare speed figures in that fashion, it would be informative to be able to compare those figures from race to race. Could increasing stride length and/or decreasing stride frequency be a fruitful source of comparison, especially for younger horses stretching out to longer distances? Or would we likely get the same results from speed figure data?
Thanks Tim. A lot of the GPS data is very complex and I only used a little of it this time with the mph and the closing 3/16ths of Renegade because for a final wrap up i felt it would be useful and easy to understand. Someti.es too much statistical data is overkill.
Thanks Steve! Liam’s Map (sire of Fulleffort) and Not This Time (sire of Six Speed) are half-brothers out of hard-knocking but not top tier sprinter Miss Macy Sue, who has been a phenomenal broodmare. What if they ran 1-2? Emerging Market has the most deliberate bred-for-routing pedigree I’ve seen in this century. It’ll be fascinating to see how he’ll perform coming off a 1:55.18 mile and 3/16ths.
Hi Rab. Yes two awesome half brothers. Emerging Market Fappiano male line top snd bottom.
Hi Rab! I’ll never forget Liam’s Map’s game BC Mile win: he just refused to lose. I’m not counting either out, despite the PP draw. I’m especially high on Fulleffort, out of Callmethesqueeze and thus a half-sib to Power Squeeze. He has been looking great on the CD track, too!
I can read Bob pretty good, he likes Potente, a lot..
Why not? Potente has a terrific rising numbers pattern. But did he go too fast in that last workout? Save something for the big day.
Post positions make for very interesting pace developments…
* Intrepido and Litmus Test can run 23 and 47. From posts 3 and 4, both will have to gun it to avoid the wave crashing down on them. Litmus also gets blinkers on.
* Pavlovian and Six Speed will have to gun it from posts 16 and 17 as well, to avoid getting caught wide.
* From the middle, Danon Bourbon, So Happy, and Potente could be the BLT in this speed sandwich.
Expecting the pace to be livelier than I originally thought, because of the post positions.
If you have speed you WANT outside—outside is where you DONT need yo gun it—it is INSIDE, where speed has to break running, outside you have 440 yards to attain position, they are FASTER early, they are fine out there…
Hey Matthew, would agree in a normal race. But in a 20 horse field, how do you cross over from 16, 17 without gunning it?
Somewhere I was reading someone’s comments about the Kentucky Derby history and that person was making a case about the age of the horses that had won in the past. It got me wondering about how this could be a pattern and why it could matter.
All these horses are considered 3-year-olds, but if you look closer, they can vary in age by as much as 4 or 5 months. The thing about aging in these young horses is that they are going to have a hormone burst at some time in their young lives. I have come to think that this peak of hormones could be compared to an athlete using steroids to improve their performance. A sudden improvement in a horse that we may have felt wasn’t a contender could all of a sudden be ready to perform at a higher level.
The horse I am thinking is experiencing this sudden found strength is Intrepido. He just turned 3 on April 16th and he is suddenly looking and performing better than ever. He definitely does like the CD track, but I think there is more going on him. He is looking by all accounts, stronger and more energetic than ever before.
I know this probably sounds a bit weird or crazy, but I do remember how handicappers would always mention the appearance of the contestants as being dappled and shiny. Bringing attention to those that were looking suddenly more muscled and stronger; I just never really attributed it to what could be going in them physically, and what was bringing on this new maturity.
I will definitely try and find a way to include Intrepido .
Good to see you here. Interesting point. At least I’ll know what and who beat me. Good luck Predict. Always good to read your post. Good luck. This has turned into the most interesting KD in a long time. I hope one of us is right. And by one I mean anyone here.
Intrepido isn’t experiencing “sudden found strength” nor is he “performing better than ever”
His last race was poor and he has no excuses to have run better than he did. It was set up for him as well, and he was empty.
Owner is throwing him head first into Derby.
Love your lead-in to the column. I made sure I had a nice glass of wine before I settled in to read it!
Thank you for this wonderful breakdown of the entrants.
I am choosing my derby horses from an emotional standpoint. So Happy would make me so happy. My heart goes out to Mark Glatt who is still grieving the loss of his wife, Dena, who died much too young. I would like to see Mike win another derby. And I loved Runhappy.
Pavlovian is my next emotional choice. Loved his last race, love O’Neill and Reddam.
Should be quite the race.
I think So Happy may get bet down by the time that story circulates everywhere. Its started.
So many prognosticators are throwing out the Santa Anita Derby one/two ..I like both…West coast has the weather, less down time….I keep thinking about So Happy’s twin stakes victories, in 1:21 flat and 1:49 flat, and I wonder if it’s THAT simple? Who else in the field could do that? A colt that stops, after his works…yet his last work he galloped out like it was “fun”, is he peaking?…and Potente—he did not need to win, he already qualified…and now looks heavily muscled, he is the size of a four year old, 1160 lbs–yes ..I live in SoCal, but I think both are true contenders, in a year that I have not been impressed (every big race HAS TO have a winner)…I am looking for “peaking”, I think these two are peaking….I think Further Ado is still peaking….and Renegade, as well, those are my four….probably will make a fivesome, with Chief Wallabee…handicapping the trainer, more than the horse….
Thoro-Graph has the SA Derby the second fastest race of the year behind the Blue Grass. I think both are going to be overlays
Hi Mathew
I’ve been aboard the Potente bandwagon for several weeks now. It’s good to know he’s heavily muscled, the size of a four-year old and weighing 1160 pounds. In Pool 6, I boxed Potente with Renegade, in a $50.00 exacta wager. In addition, I boxed those same two in a $10.00 exacta wager, (Pool 5).
Judging by their works today, it appears that Potente and Intrepido are well cranked for a good showing in the Derby. In Pool 6, I boxed them in a $10.00 exacta wager.
With respect to my exacta wagers, in the various Derby Futures Pools, the best-case scenario would be a one-two finish by Potente and Renegade. The payout would be $7,918 or $6,393 (depending on the finishing order).
If Potente and Intrepido were to finish one-two, the payout would be even more.
I boxed Danon Bourbon with Potente, in a $20.00 exacta wager (Pool 6), which would pay $9,248 or $8,377 (depending on the finishing order).
Fingers crossed.
Bill
I ABSOLUTELY LOVE your exacta box with
DANON BOURBON and POTENTE
Good Luck
Thanks, Mark
After watching the video replay of Danon Bourbon’s win in the Fukuryu Stakes, I thought this colt could be something very special. When Pool 6 opened, I wasted no time making that exacta wager. I’ve been on the Potente bandwagon from the get-go, thinking he could be something very special as well. I’ve got a gut feeling that one of the Into Mischief colts, (Potente, Renegade or Commandment) will be wearing the roses on Derby Day.
Good luck to you as well, Mark M.
Mark M
Today, 4-28, Danon Bourbon worked 4 furlongs in 52.80. I’m not sure if that relatively slow workout time was by design or if something is amiss. Frankly, I’m a bit concerned. Hopefully, this could be the way the trainer approaches Danon Bourbon’s training regime.
Bill
It was by design
Steve:
What do you think about Potente and Intrepido’s blazing works today?
If I was a fan of Potente I would be thrilled with Intrepido ‘s work. Showed the track was very fast and visually Potente’s work was outatanding. Rider never moved on him and he is one powerful looking horse. Looked like that work took nothing out of him
Steve, both horses really seemed to like the track. Intrepido had a fast work at Santa Anita prior to this one, but not like this one. Mullins wasn’t pleased though with Berrios. However, Baffert says he liked Potente’s workout.
Intrepido ‘s time was insane. But again very deceiving.
Could it have taken too much out of Intrepido?
It could but each horse is different. The trainer was not happy at all
For what it’s worth, It rained like hell overnight but the tracked was sealed tight. That combo of a tight seal and rain can create a very fast surface even when opened. I would also bet they didn’t open it up very much. With SA being such a deep surface, I think all of this contributed to the time and more importantly why Hector didn’t pick up on the fact that he was going so fast.
Brilliant analysis, you have a God given gift to create vivid images in the minds of your readers.
Thank you so much Jimmy. Thats one of the.nicest things anyone has said to me. That is what I aspire to do every time I sit down to write and what the joy of writing is all about, at least to me.
Steve: Jimmy Mack is right. You paint a picture that feels like we are there watching races live. The same way Chick Hearn & Vin Scully used to.
You do it with a pen, that makes it more special & interesting.
Thank you for a great ride this season.
I can’t play Emerging Market on top with only two starts and none as a 2-year-old. Even if the needing a race as a 2-year-old has been blown out of the water a couple of times.
I still look at it. I will be using him on my tickets though. The lower spots on a trifecta probably. I think he is going to run good.
I also don’t mind the #1 for Renegade. Exactly for the reasons that Steve Haskin mentioned. But I want more than 4-1. 8-1 sounds much better. Can he drift up that high? We’ll see. Not sure that I have the patience to wait until right before post time to put my bet in.
Danon Bourbon was out on the track today. Not a workout. Just a jog.
He looks big and strong. I hope he gets a workout in tomorrow. I almost feel like it is unfair to bettors if we can’t see him in action before Derby Day.
I would rate his coming in so late as a “Con”.
I read through Steve Haskin’s entire Pros and Cons column. It’s terrific. I will be referring back to it during the week.
You really put in the work Mr. Haskin. Thanks.
I still think that “The Chief” and Emerging Market are best on looks. Danon Bourbon looked very good. But he was only jogging. I want to see him putting out some effort.
Tommy
I believe connections said Danon Bourbon will work Tuesday morning
Read it through twice! So much information to digest. Definitely intrigued by Emerging Market and Chief Wallabee. My pool 3 future bets are Renegade and So Happy. 4 box tri? But then there is Danon Bourbon. Which leaves out Commandment, Further Ado, and The Puma. Guess I better read this a third time. And then I’ll probably just go and bet the one that has Harley as his pony horse. Love Harley!
Lol. If you read it a third time I absolve myself of all responsibility in case of serious brain damage.
Excellent!!
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing such a thorough synopsis of all the Derby entries. It will be a real challenge to digest all the information that you have so graciously shared with your followers. Your three-tiered approach was especially enlightening, and rather unique, I might add. BTW, is it possible to be enlightened and confused at the same time, because that’s where I’m at right now. 🙂
That said, I was very disappointed when Renegade drew the one hole but was delighted to read that the one hole doesn’t bother you.
Also, I’m in total agreement with your top five contenders, and like what you had to say about So Happy. I boxed him with Renegade, in a Pool 3 exacta wager and placed a $20.00 win wager on him in Pool 4, at 53-1.
As I mentioned in a previous comment, So Happy could be the “Cinderella” horse in this year’s Derby.
Thanks again, your hard work is always appreciated.
Well, maybe it bothers me a little. But i dont toss horses I like because of post. A good trip and a bad trip can both happen from any post. The Derby is about luck and if its your turn for good luck the holes will open
Thanks for the reply, Steve
Well said.
Agree totally with you on this point Steve. As long as some jockey doesn’t do the dumbest ride like Jeremy gave Afleet Alex (who still had the lingering lung infection)Fractions in that 2005 year derby were INSANE. That f’d up ride cost Alex
Thank you so much for this, Steve! As usual, I have too many horses I’m rooting for. Your superb insights may help me narrow things down. BTW, I was happy to note Edwin Maldonado said recently that Pavlovian really likes the Churchill surface. 🙂
I hope they narrow it down for me too. Im just as confused.😊
Great writeup on the derby entries as the prep races this year. I’m entering early stage “analysis paralysis” on who to pick. On the topic of So Happy i see he’s listed as a 15-1. You think Mattress Mack puts down his usual big win bet ? Seeing he did it on Runhappy, what are the odds on So Happy at post time. I’m thinking around 10-1 or less.
Mattress Mac isnt into racing that much anymore. Thats why he sold Runhappy. But he is rooting for him..
CC
Laughed at “analysis paralysis”.
That is a good one!
So me at this stage.
Comes around mid April to mid June every year….Brain Fog! After looking at pp’s we all become “T he Rain Man” ‘ya think?
LOL, agree!
Hi Steve,
As always, your insight and analysis is very helpful. I believe that one of the following horses will most likely win the Kentucky Derby:
Commandment, The Puma, or Further Ado.
Out of Those 3, I love The Puma the most for sentimental reasons. I am not a huge fan of Brad Cox. But I do love Johnny V. who will be aboard Further Ado. But did Further Ado already peak in the Blue Grass Stakes? He seems to have a lot of energy on the track while training.
I don’t think a horse with a Biblical name has ever won the Derby, right? But to me it seems like Brad Cox thinks Commandment is the best of his 3 horses.
No disrespect for the Favorite, Renegade. But bad luck Post 1, has a January foal date and Mike Repole owns him? He seems to be very unlucky.
Out of The other tiers…
I really like Golden Tempo. I would like him to win for his female trainer Cherie Devaux! But you have convinced me that Emerging Market needs considered, even with just 2 races. I do feel bad for Chad Brown with Paladin off the Derby Trail. He might have been the One for him. But maybe Emerging Market is?
I also like Danon Bourbon. But to be honest, as much as I would love to see a Japan Horse win, I would rather it be a Japan-bred horse to win and it seems most regard Dannon Bourbon as the better of the 2 Japan horses. I do love Dannon Bourbon’s Breeder’s story that you shared though.
I was considering Chief Wallabee, but your insight has made me wonder if he could win. Why does he turn his head, just not focused? Wouldn’t blinkers help him to focus more if that is the case? Besides what are the chances Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado win the Derby 2 years in a row?
I do think So Happy’s trainer’s story is sad, would be nice to see him win. Also, because his Sire, Runhappy, was sold overseas. But just not feeling the California horses are the best horses this year, no matter how fast/slow their workouts have been.
There has to be a part of you rooting for Mandy’s Grace baby, Pavlovian! I do love when owners bring their Homebreds to the Derby though!
Also, The Riley Mott trained horse’s owner also lost her husband recently. I don’t think in any scenario, Albus or any of the Wood Memorial horses can win this Derby. But what IF Incredibolt steps up? I know, he hasn’t raced recently enough, but sometimes I like to dream. I really respected his owners for trying everything they could to save their horse Geaux Rocket Ride who I absolutely loved because I have a dog named Rocket.
Eva picked Wonder Dean!
My husband picked Mark Casse’s horse, Silent Tactic. Eva and I would love for Mark Casse to win the Derby. But I am not feeling Silent Tactic is the One.
It’s so hard for me to pick just 1 horse!
So I see.😀
Thanks for the continuous supply of fascinating & informative info, Steve. I’ve been stuck deep in the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Rabbit Hole for the past week & your posts have been like an oasis in the desert…
When I was researching PAVLOVIAN today, it struck me just how many races he’s had compared to the so many lightly raced contenders in the field. Wouldn’t it be something if he hit the finish line first, with 10 races already under his belt.. He did strike a cord with me, too. Despite the lower speed figures than the top tier, I really like how the light bulb went on for him in the Sunland Derby with the addition of blinkers & how he was so game with EMERGING MARKET in the LA Derby, beat just by a nose. Almost went wire to wire in that one & like you pointed out in a prior post, it’s impressive how he held his speed from start to finish. He’ll be coming into the Derby fresh (for him anyways), his usual feisty self & perhaps more dangerous than he looks on paper.
Also, Mark Casse revealed on Thursday that SILENT TACTIC suffered from a “bruised heel” the 4 weeks bet the Rebel & Arkansas Derbies. I don’t remember hearing that info before but, Casse said the horse is now fully healed (pun intended, ha). Kind of puts him in a better light for me, especially as I am hearing that the pace set up will likely be as fast as the last several years. (Keeler Johnson posted a nice piece on Friday in BloodHorse that went into detail about just how fast Six Speed has been in his last 2 races.). Cheers and thanks again.
Thank you Shelly. Dont get me excited over Pavlovian.😊
Thank you…. Well worth the time. And I forwarded it to two friends who now share the excitement of the Derby! It’s going to be so exciting. And hope all come in safe! And the Friday is also a spectacular day of racing.
May the best horse on Derby Day win!
The Japanese have been bringing over some very nice horses and this year’s group is no exception. Danon Bourbon is quite the specimen and certainly could be a contender, but Caton Bredar (FanDuel TV) reported that the horse was a real handful when he got out on the track and even unruly at times. So much so, the horse actually swerved in and interfered with Right to Party who was by the rail, and I guess, out for a jog. Let us hope his connections get this horse to settle down.
On a separate note: I always loved Runhappy and was disappointed when I heard the news that he had been sold and heading to S. Korea. It is wonderful to see a horse in the Derby sired by Runhappy who I believe has a shot to win. He truly is a feel-good story, and for me, he is my new Medina Spirit, another horse I loved and left us all too soon.
I believe that was Wonder Dean who behaved so erratic during the workout. Not today yesterday or Friday.
forever young at age 3 also didnt play nice in workouts, dumped riders etc….
Great job, thank you, Do you ever just consider your “gut” feeling, I have this feeling about Silent Tactic.
Thanks Danny. Unfortunately I do that too often.
Thanks so much Steve, always value your insight!
You’re the best!
Thanks Teri.
Excellent. Thank you for your superb writing skills. As a novice better, i am always looking for pros and cons. You hit every note. Outstanding.
I appreciate it Vicki. Thank you.
Shew! After reading all this I think I’ll use my deceased uncle Bill’s strategy. Bet a win ticket on all of them!
A brilliant presentation, Steve. Starting with the two horses we know the least about before tackling the favorites immediately grabbed my attention. Any good analyst could make a case for 10 or 12 of these talented horses, but you’ve also assessed them with intuition based on your many years of experience. This is that kind of Derby, and it wouldn’t be nearly as much fun without you, someone born to do this.
Thank you Ms B. I try to give both sides for every horse. Now watch one of them withdraw and have Great White win.😊
That way madness lies!
So two of my angle horses at a price, Golden Tempo and Fulleffort, draw posts 19 and 20. You just never know what to expect on the Derby trail.
I have four in my Derby Tri, I’m looks ng for a fifth, that’s my usual Derby Trifecta….Looking at Emerging Market, only two starts, beating a Cal bred by a head …looks dismal, for The Derby….Prat stays, though, and I do not think it’s loyalty, because he doesn’t ride Ways and Means, for Chad (he has Splendora)….but I just cannot go with a two time starter…..Two colts that I have a strong sense will do well are Further Ado and So Happy—-and I also like Potente, who won’t be inside speed, this time, he’s a big colt…has the proven Derby Trainer…..I keep hearing the West is weak, this year, but they run 25% of the field, and I just cannot stop looks ng at So Happy, whose rider wears reading glasses…sire was a sprinter…. doesn’t put out, in his works—what’s not to like??!!..
Update! Will use Chief Wallabee, for #5 on my tri box, good luck to everybody, take’em down!
Oh no, Mathew. I was going to eliminate So happy but you are the man who cashes on Derby day! I usually try to come up with a few exactas every year, but this group is too confusing. Given how high the odds will be, I’m thinking of playing five $10 win bets, on a total of five horses. So Happy would have been #6. Still, it’s early in the week, so I can change my mind. Best of luck with all your bets.
Really enjoyed your article. thanks
Have been eagerly reading your Derby articles for several years. You were born to write. We can learn a lot from. the information you provide us readers, which can’t necessarily be found elsewhere. Thank you so much for what you do!
As others have mentioned, its a challenge to pick the winner from so many horses that could rise to the equation. Personally, I really like Renegade and Emerging Market but anything can happen.
That is very kind of you Scott. Thank you so much.
As usual Steve, you are spot on. Things are upside down now. A change to blinkers by Mott was actually Junior Alvarado’s quiet suggestion. Normally I wouldn’t like it either but I can tell you the difference in his focus has has been astounding. If all The Chief needed was help focusing, look out.
Thank you that was wonderful information ❤️
❤️❤️
Steve,
Absolutely great analysis. I usually spend 4 days reading the Form and not having any luck with the Derby.
Going to followup your angles and could end up playing a #20 # 1 exacta box. Look forward to your continued thoughts.
Thanks again!
Thank you Mark!
I like the oddsmaker at Churchill…but he missed badly, on the Potente 20-1….no way….
Grea analysis Steve. I have been leaning to Emerging Market. I love the fact he will be ridden by the brilliant Flavien Prat. Watched all of Chief Wallabee’s efforts. I thought in his last race he was compromised between two horses coming to the wire, afer his head turning episode earlier. Mott knows how to train, that’s undisputed.
Thanks for your effort.
Thanks Bruce. I agree on all counts
Wow Steve! A lot of work. Thanks !!
I’m not a horse player, but grew up around them (my grandad witnessed Secretariat’s birth), with our best being a 40k claimer in the late 70s.
I was at Colonial and saw Incredibolt win, so he’s somewhat of a “sentimental” favorite. Irad opting for Renegade speaks volumes; but, as you said, “no one is better” than Johnny V, who’ll be on Further Ado.
I’ll do a $1.00 trifecta at a local party, and hope to see some of these horses in person at the BC this fall.
Witnessed Secretariat ‘s birth? You cant leave that hanging out there.😊
I’ve been looking forward to this analysis! Thank you for all the thought you put into it!
Pavlonian had a jockey camera on today ..in a gate work, where it looks like Doug wanted to squeeze him a bit, make things uncomfortable…that’s what I believe they were trying…..So Happy —just looks right, to me….capable of turning a 1:21 flat and ac1:49 flat—and beating several of The Bob Brigade (Bob is bringing some good stock, for the Saturday card)…
I really think this field is full of quality this year. A half dozen of these horses could go on and prove to be elite, like Sovereignty and Journalism were last year. Really looking forward to the race.
I jumped on Fulleffort in the very first Derby advance bet. Never did that before, just a strong feeling. My other two favorites are Chief Wallabee and The Puma. I feel even better about trusting my “gut” after reading your analysis. As always, though, I just want to see a cleanly run race with all returning to their respective barns in good shape.
Steve,thank you so much for all the valuable information. It is a pleasure to read your columns and I look forward to your derby column later this week..I do honestly value the Thorograph numbers you post on these horses..it is the reason I won with Mystik Dan a few years ago .
Thank you Jeff.
Bold prediction…
1st – Emerging Market
2nd – Six Speed
3rd – Wonder Dean
I don’t trust any of the top 5 with the way they are coming into this race. And I don’t see a dominant closer in this crop. As far as the rest…
Danon – Could win easy. But I still say he’s been playing flag football, and this is tackle.
Potente – I was on him until that gallop out in his workout. What the heck was that. Also, Baffert sounds so disinterested.
Incredibolt – I don’t see a win. Should make his presence felt. But I have a bad feeling.
The rest I feel are a level or two below.
All that said, I don’t claim to be great at this, so know I could be way off. But I try to read between the lines. Chad running says a lot. And I think both UAEs are on the upswing.
Very bold!
Steve- we hope that you are feeling well and doing fine.
You’ve made me so much money in the past, I’m like a giggly school girl waiting to see your wagers. GL buddy…….
Im so happy to hear that. But I must admit, I have several angles that are in this column but there isn’t a standout to make me say that’s my horse to bet. There are just so many ways to go in this field. If Renegade can work out a trip from the rail he has been my No. 1 ranked hors.e. we’ll see how things look in a few days.
Love your insights Steve no one does it better but I think you’re too high on the ca horses as a group. As you yourself pointed out they’ve taken turns beating each other and none have done particularly well when they’ve gone east.
There’s 3 things I want to say about this T minus 7 days Kentucky Derby article of yours. #1 It seems to me that as much as you love horse racing, writing about the sport you love is your true aphrodisiac. What a comprehensively great article. #2 Our discussion about Emerging Market’s lack of foundation a month ago confimed your conviction as a horse player and a student of history re the 2-start rule, but this write-up also shows that you’re not averse to reconsideration on a longstanding principle, if given additional evidence. That’s a special characteristic. Finally #3, when the new Belmont Park opens this fall, will you be spending Belmont Eve on third floor clubhouse level with your fellow scribes like you did religiously for so many years pre-reconstruction? Thank You, Steve Haskin. Good luck on Derby Day
Boy do you know me. Lol. That was very profound .and I thank you for that. And you are so right about my true aphrodisiac. That is why i tend to overwrite. It just flows out of me more now than ever as if I dont want it to stop even knowing I am testing the readers’ endurance level. And no sadly those Belmont deli days of pastrami sandwiches and knishes and hanging out on the third floor are gone with the dust of the old grandstand. Were you ever up there with us? Not many are aware of that much anticipated get-together. Thanks for a great post.
Steve thanks for making the lead up to the derby 🐎 this year and every year so much fun !
It was my pleasure Nick. Thanks for being part of it.
Great article Steve as always. So many angles and stories to like. Lots to consider, hopefully where ever I land will be profitable, looking forward to your Thursday column.
Best,
Hammer
I appreciate that Hammer. Thank you very much.
Made it through the whole column, but will be re-reading to make sure I didn’t miss anything important. This Derby has been one of the most challenging to handicap: a very enjoyable puzzle that started last November. I can’t imagine how empty it would be without your amazing columns, as well as all the great, insightful commenters here…Thank you so much for all you do!
I currently have $144 $0.50 trifecta with (4)(10)(10) format, but will probably be modifying a lot from now until May 2…my current top 4 are: Danon Bourbon, The Puma, So Happy and Emerging Market
Thanks for your perseverance Biggy.