Kentucky Derby: Past vs. Present
The unofficial start of the 2026 Kentucky Derby trail has begun. We have plenty of time to dig into the leading prospects, so before we embark on the 2026 trail we are going to provide a two-part column exploring several sides of the Derby — its historical side, its souful side, and its whimsical side. The first part will focus on the first two, showing the difference between the race now and the race the way it was and looking back at the some of the feel-good stories of this century. Part two next week will provide a light-hearted tutorial on how to avoid getting misled by trainers’ trivial catch phrases. So set your GPS for Churchill Downs and let’s get ready to set forth on our annual journey to racing’s most elusive destination. ~ Steve Haskin
Kentucky Derby: Past vs. Present
By Steve Haskin
Many look back at past Derby winners and wonder where are the Secretariats, the Citations, the Whirlaways, and the Seattle Slews, Affirmeds, and Spectacular Bids of the late 1970’s. Why have only five Derby winners this century been elected to the Hall of Fame when we had six in the decade of the ’70s alone?
Yes, the Kentucky Derby has changed over the years. Having watched the race since the late 1960’s and covered it for almost 30 years, I believe it used to be all about the winning horses, most of whom stamped their place in the history books, while today it is more about the winning horse’s story, as you will see later. The days of big-name horses, mostly homebreds, owned by racing dynasties such as Calumet Farm, King Ranch, Belair Stud, Rokeby Stable, Darby Dan Farm, and Meadow Stable have been replaced by lesser known horses and lesser known connections with heartwarming human interest stories behind them.
As the one-time titans of the Turf faded into history, the sport gave way to ownership expansion through syndicates and partnerships that get the average person involved without having to spend big money. And we have more small-time breeders who make a name for themselves through the sales ring, depending on who winds up buying their horses, and more small-time trainers who simply have the Derby gods shining down on them on the first Saturday in May.
Sure, oldtimers miss those days when the Kentucky Derby often showcased the future legends of the sport who would compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown without fail. No Derby winner ever dared pass the Preakness.
But for totally different reasons, was the Derby a better race then or now? Great winners or great stories? Iconic owners or partnerships ranging from three or four people to thousands of micro partners? Homebreds raised, broken, and trained on the farm where they were born or horses going through yearling and/or 2-year-old sales? Horses established as 2-year-olds who are tough veterans by Derby Day that everyone knows or late-developing horses with minimal starts who are pretty much strangers to racing fans?
Some can easily make a case for the Derby the way it was and others can make a case for the Derby the way it is now. There is no doubting the fact that the Derby is more difficult to win now with fields of 19 or 20 every year and each horse in the race having to prove themselves in graded stakes. You won’t find any pushovers now. In the 1940’s, ’50’s, and ’60’s there were 19 Derbys with less that 15 starters and four others with 15, and fields as small as six and eight on three occasions. Before American Pharoah, six of the previous seven Triple Crown winners won the Derby in fields of 13, 15, 11, 6, 10, and 11. This also makes the Derby more difficult to handicap now, but more interesting and with far more wagering options.
To give you an idea what the Derby was like when anyone could enter, whether they were major stakes winners or cheap claimers, from 1969 to ’72, Derby starters included Royal Leverage, whose only win in 10 career starts came in a $10,000 claiming race; Big Brown Bear, whose only victory in 15 career starts was in a $15,000 claiming race; Fourulla, a maiden in four career starts; Majestic Needle, winner of one allowance race and a maiden race in 23 career starts who was coming off a 26-length drubbing in the Blue Grass Stakes; Saigon Warrior, whose only victory in 17 career starts came in a six-furlong maiden race at Oaklawn Park; Pacallo, who broke his maiden in a $10,000 claiming race in Puerto Rico, and in his only race in America he was beaten 11 lengths in a seven-furlong allowance race;
In 1969, we had one of the greatest Derby matchups in history with Majestic Prince, the undefeated Santa Anita Derby winner; Top Knight, the 2-year-old champion and winner of the Flamingo and Florida Derby; Arts and Letters, winner of the Everglades and a 15-length winner of the Blue Grass Stakes in near track-record time; and Dike, who won the Gotham and Wood Memorial with explosive stretch runs, beating top-class horses such as Reviewer and Al Hattab. So strong were these four horses, the Derby drew only eight starters. To demonstrate the extreme drop in class after them, one of the other four horses was Rae Jet, winner of two of 23 career starts, who went into the Derby after getting beaten in a $20,000 claiming race at six furlongs before losing the Derby Trial by 16 lengths. And the horse who set the pace was Ocean Roar, a shipper from Beulah Park in Ohio.
So as you can see, anyone, and I mean anyone, could run in the Derby and nobody batted an eye. That’s just the way it was. The Derby was still the Derby. If any of those pretenders mentioned above were in the Derby today there would be a major uproar throughout the internet. But as racing moved deeper into the seventies we had more and more superstars and better quality fields, with graded earnings eventually used to keep the inferior horses out of the starting gate, followed by a points system.
But somewhere down the line we lost those all-time great superstars. Was it due to the deeper fields, the more conservative approach to training, the influx of speed in the pedigrees, premature retirement that prevented horses from establishing their true greatness at 4 like Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid? There either are no answers or too many. But while we may have lost those superstars we did open the door to some of the most memorable feel-good backstories of all time, which has helped fuel the sport and attract new fans and even a number of celebrities and sports figures who wanted to share in the experience of owning a horse and possible Derby hopeful.
Here is a brief look back at several of those heartwarming stories behind Derby winners of the past two decades that have helped racing reach out to the masses and hit an emotional chord.
Funny Cide (2003) — This modest New York-bred was purchased by a group of friends from the tiny hamlet of Sackets Harbor, New York who sat on a porch one day and decided to chip in and buy a New York-bred yearling and just have some fun with him or her hoping to break even, despite the objection from some of their more practical wives. Behind their ring leader Jack Knowlton of Saratoga, they purchased a yearling filly who went on to win enough money for them to buy a son of Distorted Humor at the Saratoga New York-bred yearling sale for $75,000.
Named Funny Cide, he would become the first New York-bred ever to win the Kentucky Derby and the first gelding to win since 1929 and then followed that up by winning the Preakness. The team known as Sackatoga Stable, which traveled to Funny Cide’s races in an old yellow school bus, became folk heroes, as did their gelding, who became known as “The People’s Horse.” They were the first to show that anyone can own a Derby horse if all the stars are aligned. When the dream ended with a defeat in the Belmont, one of the Sackatoga partners, a caterer named Dave Mahan, put it all in proper perspective when he said, “I could be home stuffing chickens.” As the original Sackets Harbor buddies proved, sometimes just sitting on a front porch with friends can change your life.
Smarty Jones (2004) — His story began with small-time Pennsylvania breeders Roy and Pat Chapman who nearly left the sport after the murder of their trainer, but decided to keep two nondescript weanlings, one of whom they named Smarty Jones. The colt was turned over to new trainer John Servis and nearly lost an eye before he ever ran following a horrific accident at the starting gate when he reared up and smashed his head against the iron bar on the gate. At first there was a question of whether the eye could be saved as it was so hideous looking with so much damage to the orbit bone surrounding the eye. But the colt proved to be tough as nails and was the perfect patient.
He began his career behind the scenes at Philadelphia Park, but kept winning one race after another while moving up in class with every start. Not only did Smarty Jones win the Derby and Preakness by a record 11 lengths, he became so popular, especially in Philadelphia where he was recognized as a true sports hero, that he twice drew thousands of fans, many with their family, to Philly Park just to watch him gallop around the track. After getting an unprecedented three-state police escort from Pennsylvania through New Jersey and into New York, he drew a record crowd of 120,000 fans to Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes. He was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2025.
Mine That Bird (2009) — This gelding was no more than a mediocre 3-year-old in New Mexico, where he was unable to win at tiny Sunland Park. But somehow he was eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby, which led to a historic cross-country odyssey in a one-horse trailer with his cowboy trainer Chip Woolley, who was on crutches after suffering a broken leg in a motorcycle accident, and the colt’s groom. After a night’s stay in Texas they arrived at Churchill Downs with no jockey to ride the horse and no one paying any attention to them or the horse. That continued all through Derby week.
Totally ignored at 50-1, Mine That Bird shocked the world by not only winning the Derby, but routing his field by a staggering 6 1/2 lengths. It didn’t matter that he never won another race. His story was so compelling and with so much adventure and human drama, he became the subject of a full-length motion picture simply titled “50-1.” And it all began with a seemingly innocent phone call from Churchill Downs racing secretary Ben Huffman to Mine That Bird’s shocked co-owners Mark Allen and Leonard Blach, who were just trying to win a race at Sunland Park, informing them that their horse qualified for the Kentucky Derby on points based on his stakes victory the previous year in Canada if they wanted to run. How do you say no?
California Chrome (2014) — This California-bred colt was sired by a $2,500 stallion named Lucky Pulpit, and his dam, Love the Chase, was an $8,000 claiming mare who had a difficult time foaling the colt, suffering a lacerated uterus, so both had to remain confined to their stall for an extended period of time to allow the mare to recuperate. California Chrome was owned by a couple of working guys from Topaz Lake, Nevada and Yuba City, California. One of them, Steve Coburn, was convinced California Chrome was being driven by fate. That belief began several days before the colt was born when he had a dream that the foal would be a big chestnut with four white feet and and big blaze face. When he and his wife went to see the newborn foal, there he was as if right out of his dream. Also, Derby Day three days later would fall on Coburn’s birthday and he would come to believe that his deceased sister was a guardian angel who was watching over the colt and guiding him.
After the California Chrome began to show talent, moving up in class with every start and dominating his opponents, Coburn and majority owner Perry Martin refused all offers, even turning down an offer of $6 million for majority interest in the colt in order to pursue their dream. To add to the story, the colt’s trainer Art Sherman had accompanied the great Swaps from California to Kentucky by train as his exercise rider in 1955 when he was 18 years old. Swaps would defeat the favored Nashua and become one of the sport’s all-time greats, Now Sherman was returning to Churchill Downs nearly 60 years later as the trainer of the Derby favorite. When “Chrome” captured the Derby he joined Swaps as one of only for Cal-breds to capture the roses. He would go on to be named Horse of the Year in 2014 and 2016 and be elected to the Hall of Fame.
Medina Spirit (2021) — This ill-fated colt finished first in the Derby and although he was disqualified because of an illegal topical ointment in his system, many still recognize him as the true Derby winner. Here was a colt who was bred by a small-time breeder, Gail Rice, who lived in a trailer on her son’s farm and was going through a divorce and had to sell one of her two colts. She decided to sell her colt by Protonico, who was bought by small-time pinhooker, Christy Whitman, also going through a divorce, who could only afford to buy at the bargain basement sales. Her exercise rider had asked her if she could pick up something inexpensive for him to pinhook and she wound up buying Rice’s colt, who had a mild case of sesamoiditis, for a paltry $1,000, with her bid being the only one. She wound up pinhooking him for her exercise rider for $35,000 and the colt ended up with five-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert and the rest as they say is history.
Medina Spirit went on to show how good a horse he was by defeating older horses in the Awesome Again Stakes and finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Sadly, on December 6, 2021 Medina Spirit collapsed and died of a heart attack following a workout at Santa Anita. He was laid to rest at Old Friends retirement farm in Kentucky with his headstone reading “Noble and Cherished Champion.” A large scultpure of the horse stands near the entrance to Old Friends carved from a 100-year-old sycamore tree.
Rich Strike (2022) — Another implausible story, he became the second biggest longshot ever to win the Derby after making it into the starting field off the also-eligible list the day before the race following a late scratch and then winning at odds of 80-1. Sold as a weanling for only $1,700, he was claimed by trainer Eric Reed, who had lost the shake on a claim earlier in the day. Reed had undergone unspeakable tragedies in his life. In 2017, he lost 23 horses in a fire at his farm, the Mercury Equine Center outside Lexington, Kentucky. Reed told his wife Kay, “We’ve probably lost everything.” But as he said, by the grace of God the wind was blowing in the direction where it prevented the fire from spreading to his other two barns. However, his entire operation was nearly wiped out. In addition to the horses they lost all their tack and supplies along with valuable records, trophies, and racing memorabilia.
The fire pretty much destroyed their past existence that had taken so many years to build up. That disaster was followed by the deaths of Reed’s two main assistants several months apart. Shortly after that, his 2-year-old grandson died in a tragic accident, and then his wife lost both her parents. But the family held together and they wound up at Churchill Downs with a faint hope of getting in the Kentucky Derby. Although the odds were poor, Reed had decided to ship there just in case and be prepared. But the day before the race they gave up all hope when Churchill Downs removed their security guard. The hardest part was informing his crew their dream was dead and it was time to ship out. But soon after, Reed received a call from one of the stewards informing him there was a late scratch and he was in the Derby. To have this former claimer make it into the Kentucky Derby field at the 11th hour just as they were preparing to leave, then break from post 20 and score one of the greatest upsets of all time was something that surely had to be the work of the Derby gods.
Mage (2023) — We had already seen a horse show us that anyone from anywhere can win the Derby when the Venezuelan-trained Canonero II shocked the world in 1971, and we saw it again 52 years later with the Venezuelan-born trainer Gustavo Delgado and his colt Mage. Delgado, who at age 13 had gotten caught up in the Canonero craze, idolizing the horse’s trainer Juan Arias. After rising to the top of his profession in Venezuela, Delgado hired the then down-on-his-luck Arias, who became his mentor. The trainer of Canonero advised him to set his goals higher and follow Arias’ dream of going to the United States and winning the Kentucky Derby. So, with Arias’ blessing and all he had learned from the great trainer, Delgado and his family headed for the United States, where he started a small stable in 2014. In 2021, Arias died at age 83.
The following year, Gustavo Jr., who was trying to boost his career and get his father more owners and better quality horses, and his friend Ramiro Restrepo, who was trying to make a name for himself in the bloodstock industry, joined forces and headed to Fasig-Tipton’s Timonium 2-year-old sale looking for potential runners. Gustavo Sr., now in his mid 60s, spoke little English and it was up to his son and Restrepo to get him the national exposure he deserved, and that was through top-class horses. One horse who caught their eye was a son of Good Magic who they bought for $290,000, going way over their limit. Named Mage, he burst on the scene at 3, and on the first Saturday in May, Delgado Sr. emulated his mentor by capturing the roses, as Mage became only the second horse ever to win the Derby without starting as a 2-year-old, Following the race an emotional Delgado Sr. looked up to the sky and said, “Juan (Arias) was with me at all times.”
The Bridlewood Buddies — We even had a great back story in 2025 with two colts, Sovereignty and Journalism. Both were broken as youngsters at the same farm (Bridlewood Farm in Ocala, Florida) by the same trainer, Meda Murphy, and were standout students, receiving her two highest grades. They eventually were sent to opposite ends of the country — Sovereignty to Bill Mott in New York and Journalism to Mike McCarthy in California. Both established themselves as top Derby contenders and, just like in the movies, wound up finishing first and second in the Kentucky Derby, with Sovereignty beating Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths. They repeated the same finish in the Belmont Stakes, this time with Sovereignty winning by three lengths. Journalism would win the Preakness with Sovereignty passing the race, giving Meda Murphy’s two top students a clean sweep of the Triple Crown.
So what will the 2026 Kentucky Derby bring? Will we revert back to a time long ago and see the emergence of racing’s next all-time great? There is still a chance we have witnessed it this year depending on whether Sovereignty returns as a 4-year-old, which at this point looks likely, and whether he can dominate the sport as Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid did in successive years to establish themselves as true superstars.
On the other hand, perhaps 2026 will keep up with the present trend of unveiling a story that will touch the soul. Or maybe we can even combine the best of both worlds and discover an unlikely hero who will to rise to greatness. Such is the Derby trail where the one thing you can be sure of is that there will be suspense, intrigue, thrills, and crushing disappointments along the way, and that is why the Kentucky Derby is always great theater. Let the show begin.
(Stay tuned next week for part 2 after which you will know more about trainers, as well as other horsemen, and what they say than you’ve ever known before)
Photos courtesy of Churchill Downs Inc. 2004, 2025, Courier Journal 2003 Sam Upshaw Jr., 2009 Pat McDonough, 2014 Michael Clevenger, 2021/2022/2023 Michael Clevenger and Christopher Granger, 2023 Matt Stone.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Thanks for the memories, Steve!
It must be a little frustrating for Mr. Haskin when the comments inevitably veer away from the stories he works so hard to tell. But what do I know?
I appreciate you saying that. Sometimes when it veers way off a lot and produces long threads it can get frustrating, but I also have to remember that this is an open forum for people to discuss racing, so if they would rather discuss other subjects they are welcome to. Sometimes people will comment on the column and then later on discuss something else and that’s fine. In the end I appreciate people coming here and we have a solid core of knowledgeable racing fans and they add stimulating conversation no matter what they comment on. But yes I do appreciate it when they like a column and share their thoughts on it.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing clarification on your “open forum” policy. It’s reassuring to those of us that occasionally “veer off” the topic, at hand, and post comments on the sport of horse racing. Now that the road to the Kentucky Derby has officially begun, comments relating to prospective Derby contenders are certainly beneficial, IMO. We can all learn from each other if we keep an open mind.
Next up is the Los Alamitos Futurity next Saturday. I’m anxious to see if Boyd can carry his impressive speed going 8.5 furlongs.
Watch out for Buetane. 101-1 in the Future Wager. Impressive colt who has been working lights out. That price was very tempting.. interested in seeing Boyd stretch out.
As usual, Baffert is loaded with impressive 2yr. old colts, Buetane is certainly one of them. Good luck on your futures bet.
In Pool 2, in a $4.00 dollar exacta wager, I keyed Boyd at 22-1, on top of four bombers, Commandment (69-1), Into the Beast (213-1), Dr. Kapur (152-1) and Rancho Santa Fe (83-1).
Just to be safe I used Ted Noffey underneath at 7-1.
Best case scenario, Boyd finishes first and Into the Beast finishes second. The exacta would pay, $32,906.
A pipe dream? Probably.
I never said I bet him.
My bad, please excuse.
Hey Bill and Steve:
I sincerely hope the field for the Los Alamitos is larger than four horses. Boyd just won the Ed Brown Stakes on Nov. 29, so I expect he was entered just to get the race to fill and he won’t actually run. I’m willing to be surprised, of course.
Mr. Haskin, your writing is captivating,not only just during Derby season. That’s why following the blog year round is enjoyable and entertaining.
So happy to have bet Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2. He really impressed in the Remsen. Once Prat tipped him out at the top of the stretch he found another gear and rolled past Renegade for the win. Definitely looks like a derby horse to me.
Paladin sitting patiently, brought outside to run down Renegade…who got the jump, on the turn—very impressive to run down
a good horse, —handily—that’s a Derby Horse….
Looking like it may be a Gun Runner Derby with Paladin and Further Ado. 2026 might the year of Gun Runner.
You called it, Matthew W. Paladin just zoomed to my personal Top 3. (The others are Ted Noffey and Further Ado).
I’m with you on that one, Ms. Blacktype. I keep a short, informal, and very flexible list of two-year-olds of interest, and I too hadn’t got beyond Ted Noffey and Further Ado. I now agree that Paladin belongs on the list. But I’m not ready to write off Renegade and Balboa, who I think have some good races ahead.
Another one bites the dust…Hastings Racecourse (Vancouver, British Columbia) will no longer have live racing.
Sad to hear, Arlingtonfan.
As much as I like Talkin, I’m going with a Paladin–Renegade boxed exaxta. (Will probably pay about six bucks.)
I may have talked my way into a three-way trifecta.
Nice hit on that exacta, Paladin bet Renegade fair and square.
Paid almost $10 too. LOL.
Nice one Ms Blacktype… like you said wasn’t going to pay much but it’s a win!!!
Thanks, Downy! Paladin was very impressive, even if his raw time was slower than Zany’s in the Demoiselle. Pretty chilly out there at Aqueduct; a lot of the Remsen starters seemed to struggle with either the distance or the conditions. Talkin was wide the whole way around.
Thanks for the memories. No one does it better than you!
Thank you Judi.
With all the discussion about the Remsen tomorrow at Aqueduct, I’ve seen no mention of the Los Alamitos Futurity, which the DRF lists as taking place on the same day, Dec. 6. But it doesn’t appear in the entries on the thoroughbred card for either Saturday or Sunday. Does anyone know if it’s been moved or cancelled?
Hi Ms Blacktype
The Los Alamitos Futurity is scheduled for Saturday, December 13th. Currently, only four runners are listed as “possible”, Buetane, Boyd, Desert Gate and Acknowledge. Of those four, Boyd appears to be the one to beat, IMO.
With respect to the Remsen, I’m having second thoughts on keying Renegade on top, in my exacta and superfecta wagers. Based on several factors, the $5 million dollar colt, Courting, deserves win consideration as well as Renegade, IMO.
That said, I’ll box those two in a large exacta wager. My superfecta wager will be as follows: 6,9/ 6,9/ with 2,3,5,7,11/ 2,3,5,7,11
Good luck.
And to you too, Bill. Personally, I’m against Courting no matter how much he sold for. He’s s l o w w w w.
Hope he proves me wrong!
“Slow” only counts during an actual race, not some workout Ms. Blacktype.
I was going by his race figures, Mike.
As Van Berg once said, “time only matters if you’re doing it”. Time, figs, etc. Sometimes isn’t end all- be all.
I’ve noticed a prominent claiming trainer who seems to have little regard for providing soft landings for his horses. He is quite adept at turning claims into stakes winners at long distances on turf. These horses often win multiple stakes and hundreds of thousands of dollars, then at 8 or 9 years old they are dropped to the bottom and become someome else’s problems. It doesn’t end well for the horses. I’m sure he could do better.
Yes Todd, for sure. That’s the problem with some owners/trainers, not caring what happens to horses after they squeeze them dry. Charmers!
Steve,
Thanks again for another brilliant column. Reading thru the stories of Chrome, Medina Spirit , Mine that Bird was heart warming as well as heart breaking.
Let start with Funny Cide with a group of friends buying a horse at a bargain basement price and then seeing that horse winning the biggest prize of the year for 3 year olds sort of like buying a Wonka Bar and having the Gold Ticket !!!
Smarty Jones another remarkable story. Small time breeders hitting it rich with Smarty Jones…. Fairy tales do come true !!!
Rich Strike… What has not been said about his remarkable win in the KD and the trainer story about his tragic loss at the farm. he owned. This was a real feel good story at the time. I must say though later in the year I soured on the trainer and the owner when they ran him in the Clark Handicap and the horse turned out to be sick after the race. I don’t know if Reed was being pressured by CD to run him since the race had major defections a few days prior to the race but all I know something was just not right about his running in that race.
Mine that Bird a Rags to Riches whirlwind story that left the owner spellbound on what just hit them.. a true “one hit wonder”{ !!!
California Chrome… reading this passage brought chills to my body with the owners dream on how the horse would look when he was born to Coburn saying that his deceased sister was the horse’s guardian angel.
Medina Spirit this story brought tears to my eyes as he was such a tough little horse who tried all the time and even surprised his trainer when he won the Kentucky Derby. He will always be to the that years Kentucky Derby winner. I was crushed when he died..
Mage… Another touching story about small time owner and trainer making it to the bigtime. What made this even better was your earlier article this year about Canonero II.
Then Sovereignty and Journalism who knows what lies ahead for each of them. I just hope they both stay healthy and we get to see them race against each other again.
Looking forward to next week’s column. Your always a great read !!!
Thanks very much. Glad you enjoyed it.
I have been looking at the Remsen and reminded that Courting and Paladin aren’t exactly aware that they were purchased for $5m and $1.9m respectively. Courting has only run twice, and Curlin’s typically mature at a steady but slower pace. His best Equibase speed number is 83. Paladin has run once – second but moved to first after Renegade was taken down to 2nd. His speed figure was 81.
The 5 horse in this race, trained by McPeek, is Chambersville. He has only run on the turf so far, and may not have the pedigree for the dirt (more on that in a second), but his speed figure progression has been 67/84/92. By Twirling Candy with a ton of Storm Bird and Mr. Prospector on the dam side. Apparently according to the crew at Lane’s End (I watched a video) this is the ideal crossing for Twirling Candy.
Question for the group here who mostly understand pedigree better than I do. Does this scream out grass, or have there been success stories from this cross on dirt? Rombauer also by Twirling and similarly has Giant’s Causeway to Storm Bird and also Mr. Prospector on dam side…
Might be worth a $5 shot.
Hi Greg V
From my perspective, there are five main contenders in the 12 horse Remsen field, Paladin at 3-1, Courting at 9/2, Igniter at 6-1, Renegade at 5-1 and Talkin at 5-1. At 30-1, Chambersville certainly looks enticing, but how he transfers that maiden win on turf, to a G2 Stakes race, on dirt, is the big question. I’m sure McPeek know what he’s doing, but I’m somewhat skeptical.
Todd Pletcher has entered three colts in the Remsen, Renegade, Courting, and Grittiness, which I consider a toss. I remain convinced that Renegade is the horse to beat, followed by Courting for place money.
That said, I’ll key Renegade on top with Courting underneath (9/6) in a larger exacta bet. My superfecta wager will be as follows, I’ll wheel Renegade on top, with Paladin, Courting, Igniter and Talkin. That is: 9/ 2,6,7,11/ 2,6,7,11/ 2,6,7,11
With respect to your question on that cross, dirt vs turf, Pedigree Ann should be able to answer that question. Maybe she’ll read your comment and provide the answer.
Good luck with Chambersville.
Hello Greg! For my opinion, Courting is the play.
My top rated 3yo so far is liberty national….by Maxfield….flew home, looked good…
Hi Matthew W
Thank you for the heads up on Liberty National, I missed his very impressive maiden win, at CD, on 11-29. His sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer, which has produced countless winners of Triple Crown races. Colts bred from that cross always gets my attention as prospective contenders on the Derby trail. He’s certainly in good hands with trainer Keeneth McPeek. Based on all of the above, I’ll add Liberty National to my Watch List.
BTW, I’m hopeful the issues that you’re facing with your declining eyesight will improve down the road. You’ll be in my thoughts and prayers.
Best of luck moving forward.
Steve, I’ve enjoyed all of your recent articles walking us down memory lane, this one especially. I look forward to part two next week. Thank u for all your hard work, you are the Best !!
I appreciate it Diane. Thank you.
My potential monster future wager overlay would be the Baffert trained Buetane at 101-1. I like what Ive seen, he has the pedigree, and hes been working awesome..
Keep an eye on Boyd, another Baffert colt that looked very impressive shipping in for the Ed Brown Stakes this past weekend, at Churchill. Setting fast fractions of 22.61, 44.89, 1:08.93, he drew off by 2 1/2 lengths, to finish in 1:15.58. By Violence, out of a Street Boss mare, Boyd sold for a cool million at auction.
In Pool 2, I keyed him on top, in a $4.00 exacta, with Commandment (69-1), Dr. Kapur (152-1), Into the Beast (213-1), Rancho Santa Fe (83-1) and Ted Noffey (7-1).
By starting him at 5 1/2 furlongs and then shipping him Cross-country to run at 6 1/2 furlongs I just wonder how far Baffert thinks he wants to go. We’ll see where he goes next. Very fast colt.
Yes indeed, a very fast colt. I’m looking forward to his next start.
Salty selections all, Bill! Of course, it’s early days.
Indeed, it is very early Ms Blacktype, and those big odds in Pools 1 and 2 reflect the uncertainty on how this year’s crop of 2yr. olds will progress moving forward.
Good luck.
A heartfelt Thanksgiving thank you for another great reflection! You never disappoint!
I appreciate it. Thank you.
Fantastic story, Steve, and wonderful questions.
I look forward to their answers.
Thanks James
Hey Steve, I don’t have the words to tell you how much I appreciate your style of writing. I don’t know of any sports writer of any sport that captures the complexity of it’s own essence as well as you do. Nack was pretty good at it too. I might be a little bias but God never made any greater athletes. To me it’s a spiritual thing.
Thanks for sharing your lifetime of insight. Always a very interesting read.
You did have the words Steve and beautiful ones and I thank you for them.. They mean a lot to me and are greatly appreciated.
There were probably far more homebred winners back then….looking at The Remsen—so many high auction purchases….I got a kich about that $6 million offer, for Chrome, what an idiotic refusal…….NOT! Chrome took those two guys on the whirlwind ride if their lives, Bob B has won TriplleCroqwnsa, but his favorite win was beating Chrome, with Arrogate…..Bob was a “Chromie”….everyone was….
Matthew, no disrespect,not everyone was a “Chromie” back in the day. Some undesirables blasted connections and horse at each and every turn.
We’ll I meant his story, his breeding, which was unreal! The top rated horse in the world, by a sire that did not win a two turn race in 19 starts….out of a mate who won an $8K maiden race at Golden Gate???….I listened to the Belmont, they were chanting “Chroome”—looudly—in New York, Zi know there were haters….not very many!..
The best thing that happened for Chrome, and racing, was his modest breeding. There would have been no great 5 year old campaign for a highly valuable stud horse. There are many Derby-Preakness winners who are easily forgotten, but HOY at 5 made him special.
Good observation Todd. Agreed!
Victor called Chrome his greatest mount—,over American Pharoah—probably because of his five year old season, I don’t think Bob liked that, but Chrome at five was pretty special, winning g the Dubai Cup with a slipped saddle (he did it all), turning into the stretch of the Pacific Classic with a 10 length lead, over Beholder….he was so good, age five….
He went further and accomplished more than some selling for millions. One of the reasons why some lost their mind with jealousy over his many wins.
Steve I have lost much of my eye sight, but your column was worth all of the extra time, one of the best columns I have ever read..
Thank you so much Matthew. Im sorry to hear about your eye sight. Is it macular degeneration? .my wife has that and gets injections that help a lot. She reads all day. Hope everything works out.
My m9ther had that….mine came sidden, after a headache….several doctors looked—I have zero degeneration and zero cataract—finally went to a neurological opthomolgist, I suffered an optic stroke, where the nerve no longer goes into the eye….he surprised me by asking if I had taken the “booster” shot—and I had (in order to visit my late mother)…he said there’s lots of nerve damage, in people wahoo took the booster, and it makes sense, cuz I also gotmmBelllls Palsy—facial paralysis….no cure—bigtime BUMMER!…
So sorry to hear that. I hope your vision doesnt deteriorate any further. I thought Bells palsy eventually gets better.
Hi Steve, happy belated Thanksgiving.
Bells Palsey does go away. It is usually from 2 week to 6 weeks.
My brother and I had t. My Bells Palsey went away in 2 weeks, my brothers Pa;sry took 5 weeks to go away.
On another note, this was one of your best reads.
You have the Midas touch without the gold…………..
Thanks Deacon. I remember Sonny Hine had Bells palsy and it got better after a while.
Hello Deacon, hope all is well for you.
I am ok for an old geezer. The usual aches & pains that come from from old age. Damn, time has just flown by.
Things we all remember in an older age,
Like, watching Majestic Prince win the Santa Anita Derby with me standing on the finish line. Watching my favorite horse Dr. Fager win the Califorian at Hollywood Park in 1968
Watching Ruffian break down in 1975, I still haven’t gotten over that.
Reading all of these great stories over the many years.
All of them are A+.
Reading what your fellow bloggers say in the comments. All of this have had a lasting effect.
Everyone stay safe & have a very Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year.
Deacon, you have lived and enjoyed some wonderful moments. Thank you for sharing them with us.
Deacon, you’re one of a kind. Have a Great Holiday! Always enjoy your astute comments.
Matthew W, I am so sorry that there has been no improvement in your eyesight.
My late Father had an optic stroke when I was a teenager.
It happened while he was driving me to school so I could turn it my mobile I made for geometry class.
He spent several days in a eye, ear and nose specialty hospital where they tried their best to restore some of his sight in his left eye. He was classified as being legally blind in that eye.
Yep….I had great doctors, the final one caught the optic nerve problem…says there’s no cure, but I won’t go fully blind….I only drive to a creek down the street, for my dogs—and the locally market—I see better in the mornings, light hurts my sight…I cannot drive at night (those new headlights ate terrible)….
I hope it somehow improves Matthew.
We’ll The Derby is far more difficult to win TODAY—as opposed to the 70s, where as you state there were many who did notbelong, and field sizes were smaller, with exception to the 123 qwho contested Derby #100, in 1974—I used ypo eat lunch at Los Al’s Schwanie’s Place, Art Sherman and I shared a table one morning—he told me he got a call about California Chrome, from an owner that predicted Derby success—Art just rolled his eyes in amazement, but there have been many such stories this century….whereas the 1970s was pretty much all eastern based winners, even Affirmed was home to the east half the time…..that was pre-Bob…..pre-Whittingham getting Derby Fever……there WQAS a 1970s outlier….Canonero II, who would’ve seemed more at home, in the 2000s…..
(Yikes, 23 ran in 1974!…too bad—Cannoonade romed, there was a tall, large framed guy named Little Current—might have been a fourth Triple Crown winner, from the 70s..)..
Hello Steve – The KY Derby Trail is heating up with the Remsen running this SAT. It won’t be long before you release your top 20 which we all wait for. I bet Paladin at 22-1,in KDFW2 to Win and boxed him with the Field. I like Paladins connections, his pedigree and F.Prat is his jockey. He should get a good ground saving trip from his PP2 in the Remsen in a big 12 horse field . What are your views of Paladin Steve? I like him a lot.
I boxed Paladin with All Others and bet him to win in KDFW2. Don’t want to confuse by saying I boxed him with the field which some may take as all 39 runners in the pool, which is what I did not do.
I like Talkin some….he only cost $600K, a paltry sum, compared to some of the contenders….
I like Paladin and his race vs Renegade was a strong one for both horses.
(Two great names…)..
Paladin vs Renegade. Sounds like an episode of Have Gun Will Travel.
Laughing…yes it does.
I loved “Have Gun Will Travel”.
Hi Lynda:
Have Gun Will Travel- Richard Boone, the show started in 1957 and ran for 6 years. It was my dads favorite show along with Wanted Dead or Alive & Gunsmoke. He loved Kitty aka Amanda Blake.
He loved red heads. My mother was a natural rehead, who knew.
Happy Holidays to all
Greatest TV western song!
Just finished reading this post. Coffee in hand and looking at my favorite Derby cartoon by Skip Olsen from the 89 DRF. Titled ” Here’s to the sweetest two minutes in sports”. Thinking that you just make it sweeter! Thanks Steve
I appreciate it Derek. Thank you
I loved the column and am waiting for part 2. I picked my first Derby winner in 1961 with Carry Back. I cashed a win ticket on Mine that Bird because I knew he had won in Canada at two. I had a run in the 1960s betting horses with a Native Dancer connection with my grandfather.
Youre a real Derby veteran Debbie. Im sure lots of memories.
I really enjoyed reading this column Steve. I love reading about the horses who have won the Ky Derby. You never disappoint in your writing. Looking forward to reading more. Thank you.
Thanks Suzie. So far some really promising colts.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing interesting back stories on several past Derby winners and their respective connections. It just goes to show you that predicting a Derby winner is at best, an educated guess.
With respect to the upcoming 2026 Kentucky Derby, Ted Noffey and Further Ado appear to be the current favorites. However, at this stage of the Derby Trail, the colt that I’ve been giving a hard look at is Plutarch, by Into Mischief, out of Stellar Wind, by Curlin. Stellar Wind won six Grade 1 races (mostly routing) earning close to $3 million in career earnings. In five career starts, Plutarch has raced on dirt and turf, never finishing out of the money. In the Grade 1 American Pharoah, he finished less than a length behind the winner, Intrepido. Yesterday, in a MSW turf race, at 9 furlongs, he closed from 9th to win going away by 4 1/2 lengths, in a good time of 1:49.69. His Equibase Speed figure was respectable 105.
It remains to be seen if Baffert will keep Plutarch on grass or try him on dirt again.
I suspect the owners will try and convince him dirt races are the best option moving forward. We’ll see.
Being a sucker for Into Mischief closers, combined with the class and stamina reflected on his dam side, I plunked down a $40.00 win wager on Plutarch in KD Futures Pool 1, at 76-1.
Yes indeed, “Let the show begin”.
Good to see you back and posting, Bill. I’ve been wondering which 2YOs colts you’ve been following. I’ll take a long look at Plutarch, especially since he won yesterday.
Only a matter of time, Ms. Blacktype.
Thanks, Ms Blacktype.
Yay Bill your back !!! Mr ” Into Mischief ” himself…. now the real Kentucky Derby countdown begins !!! Will be looking forward to your future comments on Derby prospects. Again welcome back!!!
Thanks, Downthestretchpp, it’s good to be back in the fold.
I’m looking forward to the Remsen coming up on Saturday. A very competitive field to say the least, with several high-priced colts entered. I suspect Talkin will go off as the post time favorite, but I’ll go with Renegade, by Into Mischief, out of a Curlin mare. He was disqualified from first to second, last out, but his closing effort was very impressive IMO. His late pace figure of 104 is the highest in the field, which should be beneficial going 9 furlongs.
BTW, Renegade closed at 63-1 in KD Futures Pool 2. I figured a $20.00 win bet on him was worth the risk.
Good luck.
Renegade is a nice play in the Remsen, Bill. While I like Talkin a lot, he’s likely to be overbet given what he’s accomplished so far. Renegade is also a homebred, which has lately been a key to Derby winning success.
Spot on, Ms Blacktype.
Stellar Wqind put-duelled Beholder, twice by a neck…Beholder had a great record, I think around 18 of 24, she was not easy to beat…
Hi Bill, great to see you post!
Thank you, Lynda. I appreciate that.
Bill:
Great to see you back and commenting: I always look forward to your insightful comments. I think you have alerted me to multiple futures prospects I otherwise would have missed!
Currently I have small amount on Blackout Time, planning to ease into more futures early 2026…
Best of luck
Forgot screen name!
Thank you for the kind words, Jeffrey. I have several maiden winners on my watch list that look promising moving forward. I’ll keep a close eye on the colts that continue to show progress down the road, and post comments, from time to time, on those that I consider top prospects on the Derby trail.
Currently, Ted Noffey and Further Ado appear to be the early favorites, but as you well know, things can change at any time.
In KD Futures Pools 1 and 2, I bet a few bombers to win and keyed those with five other bombers in the exacta pools. Plutarch, at 76-1 (Pool 1) checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Good luck with Blackout Time.
Love it as always ❤️
Delightful column, Steve. It’s also a reminder that anything is possible on the next Derby Trail. I spent some time today looking at pedigrees of promising 2YOs, with an eye to those with what, to me, looked liked a Derby-worthy pedigree.
Mine That Bird, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, California Chrome, and Medina Spirit — all recent winners — are proof that a Derby winner can come from anywhere (that’s a paraphrase of one of your truest comments!).
What a wonderful prelude to the Derby countdown! Thanks, Steve!
Let the show begin indeed! I have been enjoying all of your historical pieces Steve but am now staring out the window at 17 inches of snow and so thankful that you will be helping me get through winter and to the first Saturday in May! Keeping the recent holiday in mind – I and this group that follows here are all thankful for you…
Thank you very much Greg. I really appreciate it. Dont overdo it digging out of all that snow. 17 inches? Where is that?
Near the lake just north of Chicago. Got a few more inches since the post yesterday!