Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 1
It’s hard to believe it’s been a whole year since we embarked on the Derby trail raving about a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Mike Repole. Well, here we go again, only this time it appears as if we may have a freaky version of Forte in Fierceness, who has sent all speed ratings through the roof. Join us each week as we follow his progress, as well as the fate of the Bob Baffert horses, which includes two other potential freaks. So, we’re off on what could be a wild ride. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: January 22, 2024 – Week 1
By Steve Haskin
1—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
There isn’t much to add to what everyone already knows about this colt and what he accomplished in one of the most brilliant victories ever in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If you are going to nitpick you can deduce from his one appearance in the slop that he is vulnerable on a wet track, which I am not conceding yet, and you can point out the overall lack of success in the Derby by BC Juvenile winners. But let’s remember no major 2-year-old stakes have been successful in the Derby, as the vast majority of winners in the last 20 years were late developers and did virtually nothing at 2. All we know for sure is that his speed figures have been off the chart, including an outrageous negative-1 ½ Thoro-Graph figure in the Juvenile; he floats over the ground, and he is bred to run all day, which we will get into next week. Some may feel his speed figures have been too fast too early, leaving little room for improvement, but it’s possible this colt is so special that his triple-digit Beyer and Brisnet figures are actually at the lower end of his scale and his ceiling is through the clouds. He has already looked sharp in his works and at this early stage I don’t see anyone who can touch him. He’s getting sharper with each work, his last five furlongs in :59 3/5, as he nears his debut in the Holy Bull Stakes.
2—Locked (Todd Pletcher, Gun Runner – Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon)
Yep, going Pletcher one-two, which is not unusual this early in the year. I know he was a well-beaten third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but I can’t overlook his gutsy victory over a very promising colt in The Wine Steward in the Breeders’ Futurity, in which he overcame the far outside post, going six to seven wide on the first turn and four wide on the second turn, a slow pace, and still battled gamely the length of the stretch to eke out a victory. He had no shot coming from well off the pace in the BC Juvenile against Fierceness while down on the rail. I believe he would have been much closer at the end had he stayed inside, which opened wide, and gone around a tiring General Partner instead of swinging five-wide and losing ground and valuable forward momentum. I did love the way he leveled off and closed a ton of ground, while reaching out with powerful strides. Before you label him as a pure closer he tracked the pace in second going a flat mile in his maiden score at Saratoga, opened a five-length lead at the quarter pole and powered home to win by 7 1/4 lengths over eventual Jerome Stakes winner Drum Roll Please, earning a strong 105 Brisnet speed figure and a 109 late pace figure.
3—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
This colt has quite a hefty $2.3 million price tag to live up to, but so far you have to love what you’ve seen. In his career debut going a flat mile at Aqueduct, which I love to see, he displayed good low action with his neck stretched out and great reach to his stride. He swung five-wide nearing the top of the stretch and was a bit green ducking in slightly after turning for home, but he quickly straightened himself out and took off with a big burst of speed after being hit once right-handed and was moving so fast while leaning in a bit it looked as if jockey Manny Franco, who was way up and back in the saddle, was merely holding on as Sierra Leone charged past the leaders. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles in the Remsen, he was far behind the next to last horse in the field of 10 over a muddy sealed track that was favoring speed, then unleashed a monster move, going from 10th to first from the three-eighths pole to the eighth pole and looked like a certain winner, but he angled in toward the rail and let Dornoch, who he had passed, see him and re-rally to beat him a nose. If he stays out in the middle of the track I believe he wins, but either way, this was only his second career start, while Dornoch had already run three times, at a mile and 1 1/16 miles, and Sierra Leone still ran a faster Thoro-Graph number. He just needs a little maturing and polishing before we see the finished product. Brown said he is doing “outstanding” and he “couldn’t be happier” with him. Watch for him to return to 1 1/8 miles in the Risen Star Stakes.
4—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
Yes, his well-beaten fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was a big disappointment, but I am still convinced that was just an off day and he is a far better horse than that. Perhaps I am still a fan of the Champagne Stakes and put too much importance in that race, but he was very impressive that day, winning off by 4 1/4 lengths, even if it was on a sloppy track. And before you make too much of his Breeders’ Cup flop it is important to note that after his excellent 102 Brisnet speed figure in the Champagne he actually moved forward, running a 103 in the BC Juvenile, and he also ran triple-digit late pace figures in both races. One reason why his BC Juvenile was very deceiving is that when he won the Champagne his Thoro-Graph number went from a 10 in his second-place finish in the Hopeful to a 2. That big a jump has “bounce” written all over it, and visually his Juvenile was just that. But amazingly he actually ran another 2. By pairing up his 2 you would have thought he won or at worst finished a close second, but it just shows what a freaky race Fierceness ran. Of the 39 Derby Future Wager horses he ranks second in the Brisnet Prime Power ratings with the same number as Fierceness. Let’s also remember he has a lot more speed than you might think, breaking his maiden at seven furlongs by 9 1/4 lengths after setting blistering early fractions of :22 1/5 and :45 1/5. I can’t recall a trainer as confident in his horse before a big race as Cox was before the Juvenile. He had his first breeze of the year at Fair Grounds and I can’t wait to see this colt run when he returns, possibly in the Risen Star Stakes.
5—Parchment Party (Bill Mott, Constitution – Life Well Lived, by Tiznow)
Although I prefer he didn’t have to come from so far back in his two starts I admire this colt a great deal, especially his professionalism and toughness. No matter how many times I watch his debut going 1 1/16 miles the more amazed I am that he was willing and able to squeeze through a opening on the rail so narrow he actually brushed against it a couple of times. Yet he shrugged it off and was able to draw clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths and gallop out way ahead of the others. Mott thought so highly of him he put him in the Street Sense Stakes, but scratched when it came up sloppy. Fortunately he found a 1 1/16 mile allowance race and again he dropped back to last and made a big run along the inside on the turn. But this time jockey James Graham was not going to have a repeat of his debut and swung him to the outside where he rallied between horses and charged past the leaders to win by 1 1/2 lengths under a hand ride with his ears pricked. The fourth-place finisher, Catching Freedom, came back to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn January 1. Although these weren’t the ‘wow’ performances you normally like to see and he has a great deal of improving to do on his speed figures I feel this is a colt who has a great deal of upside, the right mindset, and should keep improving the farther he goes, and with cleaner trips. I just would like to see more tactical speed so he doesn’t put himself in compromising positions against better horses.
6—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
As everyone knows by now this is a full-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage who looks like a bargain now at $325,000. I love that he’s run four times already at four different distances at four different racetracks in three different states. After a pair of strong seconds at Saratoga and Monmouth, the latter in the Sapling Stakes, he was 1-2 when he wired his field by 6 1/2 lengths at Aqueduct, earning an excellent 95 Brisnet speed figure. But he also was weaving in and out the entire length of the stretch and failed to switch leads no matter how hard Luis Saez tried to make him. Then in the Remsen Stakes over a speed-favoring muddy and sealed surface he set the pace under pressure and began to open up when he ducked in sharply and bounced off the rail. Once he got back in stride, Sierra Leone had already gone by him and looked like a sure winner. But to his credit he not only came on again to win by a nose, he ran straight and true along the rail and wasn’t intimidated at all when Sierra Leone came in and was laying all over him in the final yards. So what do we make of this colt? Was bouncing off the rail the best thing to happen to him, providing enough of a wake-up call to knock the greenness out of him? We know he has speed and can carry it and we know he’s tough and obviously has the pedigree. All we need to see now is a workout.
7—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
He is another colt who comes from far back and will have to depend on contentious paces, which he didn’t get when the speedy and classy Otto the Conqueror got loose on the lead in a allowance race and pulled away in the stretch. But it was Honor Marie’s first and third races that stamped him as a serious horse to watch. In his career debut he made a big move and swung six-wide, but had to swerve when another horse came out in his path. He quickly leveled off and closed fast to win under a hand ride in 1:10 3/5 for six furlongs. After his second to Otto the Conqueror, who would go on to win the Springboard Mile, he rebounded big time by coming from far back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes after rallying along the inside and then swinging six-wide turning for home. He drew off to beat a battle-tested warrior in Real Men Violin by two lengths and then galloped out 15-20 lengths ahead of the others. I like his Brisnet speed figure progression, going from an 80 to 90 to 96 and his 102 late pace figure last out. That progression can also be seen in his Thoro-Graph pattern of 11 to 7 to 5 ½. If you like to see the Rasmussen Factor (RI) in a pedigree, as many do, which is the inbreeding to a top-class mare, Honor Marie is inbred top and bottom to the speedball Crimson Saint through her daughter Terlingua and her son Royal Academy. Now if some of her speed can rub off on Honor Marie perhaps he wouldn’t be so pace dependant. A good sign was his sharp :59 3/5 work.
8—Otello (Chris Clement, Curlin – Isabella Sings, by Eskendereya)
I admit this colt fascinates me and part of that fascination is based on his career before he ever started. He was entered going two turns on October 13 at Aqueduct but was scratched after drawing post 14. Clement tried Laurel on October 22, but had to scratch again when he drew post 12. He found another two-turn race at Aqueduct on October 26, but the colt drew post 14 and was scratched yet again. Still persistent to find a two-turn race Clement entered him at Aqueduct on November 11, but amazingly he drew post 15 and was scratched for the fourth time. Clement finally gave in and entered him in a one-turn mile drawing post 3 on November 24…42 days after entering him for the first time. But his maiden race did not go as smoothly as hoped, as Otello got bottled up in traffic all the way around the turn and had to steady slightly nearing the top of the stretch. He tried to power his way through, but got sideswiped twice and shoved in toward the rail by the 6-5 favorite. But he was relentless and kept coming to wear down the Rick Dutrow-trained J D Factor by a neck in a sharp 1:37. His next start was the one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream. Again stuck in traffic behind the leaders, the horse in front of him swerved and bore out and Otello had no choice but to squeeze through a tiny opening on the rail. For a while it looked as if he was toiling in fourth and going nowhere, but again he kept coming with great determination and was able to win by a half-length in 1:37 3/5. He carries his legs beautifully and is very professional, always keeping a straight course. His next step will be the big one.
9—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
Here is an odd lead-in for you. I can’t help but think back to my days as librarian for the Racing Form and receiving a photo of a horse returning to the winner’s circle after winning a six-furlong allowance race at Hialeah. The first thing I noticed was how enormous this horse was. I looked at the caption in the back and was shocked to see this giant of a horse had run the six furlongs in 1:09 4/5, a second off the track record. That horse was Forego, and in some ways I got the same feeling recently after watching another giant of a horse overcome trouble after trouble in a one-mile maiden race and still somehow find a way to win. Like Forego, young 3-year-olds that size with such big bounding strides are not supposed to do the things Conquest Warrior did. We’re talking about a 17 hands colt who early last August already weighed a massive 1315 pounds. A $1 million yearling purchase, he has always had a great mind and does whatever you ask of him. After getting squeezed badly and bumped around at the start of a one-mile maiden race last out and dropping back to ninth he blew by horses on the turn, then was forced to steady twice in traffic at critical points in the race and still was able to close relentlessly to wear down the promising Pletcher colt Antiquarian with a final eighth in :12 2/5. Finishing fifth was another Pletcher colt, the 8-5 favorite Be You, who had already finished fourth in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and third in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes. He needs to get faster, but is still getting a crash course in what this game is all about and this race was enough of an eye opener to take him seriously.
10—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioeerof the Nile)
Other than his close fourth behind Parchment Party, in which he had a troubled trip in the final furlong looking for running room, he’s run big, winning his two other starts, including the Smarty Jones Stakes, despite still being a bit green. In both his victories he had similar trips, racing on the inside then swinging five-wide and coming home strongly. In the Smarty Jones he didn’t change leads until inside the eighth pole when hit once left-handed. But, like his maiden score when he closed his last eighth in :12 1/5, he powered home with a final sixteenth in :06 1/5. He is owned by the Albaugh family, who won last year’s Arkansas Derby with Angel of Empire, and they are looking forward to stretching Catching Freedom, who is inbred 4 x 4 to Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Unbridled, out to 1 1/8 miles in the Risen Star Stakes.
11—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
With three straight victories and back-to-back stakes scores it’s time to take this colt very seriously. He has excellent and consistent early speed and seemed apparent in Saturdays’s Lecomte Stakes. In that race the once heralded Nash was intent on getting the lead this time, but couldn’t outrun Track Phantom, breaking from the far outside. Most of the two-turn horses so far haven’t been that fast regarding their overall speed ratings and brilliant performances, but they are an improving bunch and this colt has been progressing with every start, culminating with his 2 ¾-length victory over Nash. Being by Quality Road, out of an Into Mischief mare there is a lot to like, although the bottom part of his pedigree is that not that strong, Asmussen has a number of live Derby horses, but he has moved to the top for now.
12—Snead (Brendan Walsh, Nyquist – Raffle Ticket, by A.P. Indy)
His first two races were on the turf, and although he closed well late in both of them he didn’t display the kind of turn of foot you want to see in a grass horse. His third start was taken off the turf an he relished the slop, closing relentlessly to draw clear late by 1 1/2 lengths. That was the end of his days being entered on the turf. Walsh found a 1 1/16-mile allowance race for him at Fair Grounds, and in his first start on a fast dirt track he turned into a different horse, exploding past horses nearing the half-mile pole with an electrifying move from fifth to first and quickly opening a commanding lead. In the stretch he kept pouring it on, pulling away to a 7 ¼-length victory and then drawing well clear on the gallop-out. That performance was good enough to put him in the Gun Runner Stakes. Sent off at 9-1, he broke a step slow and dropped back to sixth in the seven-horse field. He then displayed that big turn of foot again, going three-wide and looking like he was going to blow by everyone, but he just couldn’t finish if off and had to settle for second behind Track Phantom, which looks like a much better performance now that Track Phantom has come back to score an impressive victory in the Lecomte Stakes. I love his Thoro-Graph pattern and the way this colt is improving I feel he could be the big overlay in the latest Derby Future Wager with odds of 89-1 as of Sunday afternoon.
13—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Ruler)
He’s not going to dazzle you with brilliant performances, but if it’s versatility and steady progress you’re looking for, he’s run five times, at five furlongs, six furlongs, seven furlongs, one mile, and 1 1/16 miles, finishing in the money in all of them, while increasing his Brisnet speed figures from a 66 to 74 to 82 to 86 to 92 ad his Thoro-Graph numbers from 20 to 13 to 11 to nine to a solid 6 1/2. He still needs to keep getting faster, but he’s sure heading in that direction. He’s also won on fast and sloppy tracks and can come from anywhere — first, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh at the second call. In short, this is the kind of horse every trainer would love to have in his barn. As for his competition he beat Otto the Conqueror going seven furlongs and the latter has not lost since, winning three straight, including the Springboard Mile.
14—Real Men Violin (Kenny McPeek, Mendelssohn – Meg Fitz, by Tapit)
What? You have a horse with one victory in six starts in your top 15? Sometimes you just take a liking to a horse and look past his record, which in his case is deceiving as he has finished in the money in all six of his starts, on fast, muddy, and sloppy dirt tracks and twice on the grass. He has also shown steady improvement in his performances and speed figures, and in his only victory two starts back he had to squeeze through a narrow opening and then ran down Track Phantom, who had opened a three-length lead in the stretch, to win by a half-length, with Track Phantom 7 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. And Track Phantom went on to win his next three starts, including the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes. Real Men Violin came off that maiden score to finish a strong second to Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, in which he made a bold move along the rail to reach contention, but dropped back after running into a wall of horses. He waited patiently for a hole to open and when one did along the rail he shot through and battled the length of the stretch with the promising Stretch Ride, only to have Honor Marie roll by to win by two lengths. I love how he keeps moving forward and getting classier with each race.
15—Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed)
Surely there has to be a good 3-year-old in California that isn’t trained by Bob Baffert. This colt has had a taste of racing on both coasts, dividing his four career starts between Kentucky and California. He actually showed a great deal of promise with a strong second first time out at Ellis Park going six furlongs and then stretching out to a mile at Churchill Downs and running down Track Phantom to win by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:35 4/5 with Resilience closing for second. And both those colts look like serious Derby horses. Sent to California, where D’Amato is based, he was no match for Nysos in the Bob Hope Stakes, but was a clear-cut second. Then in the Los Alamitos Futurity, he was in tight quarters, came through a big opening on the rail and was out-dueled by the Baffert-trained pacesetter Wynstock, taking a couple of bumps in the final sixteenths ad falling a half-length short. But he did earn a strong 99 Brisnet speed figure, a 10-point jump from the Bob Hope Stakes. He’ll have his fill of Baffert horses this winter, Derby or no Derby, and he just has to bide his time and keep improving. I just don’t know how far he wants to go.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
With Churchill Downs basically holding a gun to the heads of Bob Baffert’s owners and telling them to move their 3-year-olds to another trainer by January 29 or don’t plan on running in the Kentucky Derby it has forced a last-minute move in the first Derby Rankings. With the Baffert-trained Nysos and Muth both initially ranked it took an other-worldly performance by first-time starter Maymun to convince us to move Baffert’s horses to Knocking on the Door until we see what happens in the next seven days.
Will Baffert’s owners, mainly Amr Zedan, owner of Muth and Maymun and Baoma Corp’s Charles Chu, owner of Nysos, remain loyal to their trainer or send their horses to another trainer for the next three months? The three previous horses who have left Baffert’s barn to train for the Derby and run – Messier, Taiba, and Reincarnate – finished 15th, 12th, and 13th, respectively, beaten a total of 61 lengths. And Zedan, who had the Derby taken from him in 2021 with the disqualification of Medina Spirit, was the owner of Taiba. A couple of Baffert’s owners, including the owner of Los Alamitos Futurity winner Wynstock, have already said they will not take their horses away from him.
Nysos, Muth, and Maymun have to be considered three of the four most talented 3-year-olds in the country and their loss would leave the Derby with a gaping hole from January 29 to Derby Day. So if those three were being ranked, here is what it would look like without the actually rankings:
NYSOS (Nyquist –Zetta Z, by Bernardini)
I believe he could be a budding superstar and thought so highly of him I have already written an entire column on him. If this was a normal year he would be ranked a clear-cut No. 2. His two races have been flawless, and even though they both were sprints I was impressed with everything I saw. He looked as close to the perfect horse as you could hope for when he broke his maiden in spectacular fashion and then followed it up with a sensational score in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes. The son of Nyquist has checked off every box in maiden and stakes company and is now ready to stake his claim as a major star. The qualities that caught our eye were his mechanics, smoothness of his lead changes, temperament, intelligence, and just overall demeanor. Combine all them with his brilliant stats – six furlongs in 1:08 4/5 at Santa Anita and seven furlongs in 1:21 3/5 at Del Mar; margins of 10 ½ lengths and 8 ¾ lengths; and breaking his maiden wire to wire with blinkers and winning the Bob Hope coming from fourth in a four-horse field without blinkers. That last fact demonstrates his versatility and ability to adjust to changes in equipment and running style. In the Bob Hope, he galloped out some 20 to 25 lengths ahead of the others. As for his mechanics he has such an easy-going flawless stride and ran straight through the stretch without any inclination to drift off his path. I always watch the head-on to assess a young horse’s stride. Watching him, his stride and balance were so perfect you could not see his back legs behind his front legs; that’s how perfectly he carries his legs under him.
MAYMUN (Frosted – Handwoven, by Indian Charlie)
Everything I said about Nysos and his perfect mechanics apply to this freak of a horse. The word has been out on him since Jessie Longoria, who bought the colt as a yearling for $50,000 in partnership with Paul Neatherlin, told Neatherlin, who had bought and pinhooked the ill-fated Maple Leaf Mel, that their Frosted colt looks like he’s special. Longoria broke and trained the colt and told Neatherlin he was so freakishly fast he couldn’t work him for fear he would go too fast. They both realized that once this colt did breeze at the Ocala 2-year-old sale he would be headed for big numbers. Not only was he fast, he had a wonderful mind, a great walk, and flawless conformation, and was everything Neatherlin looks for in a young horse. And on top of everything he has the same Tapit – Indian Charlie cross as the spectacular Flightline. So it was on to the sale with high hopes, and even there they had to be extremely careful how he went in his prep breeze. Even with him under stout restraint he went his eighth in :10 1/5, out three furlongs in :33. In his official breeze he, as expected, had jaws dropping when he went his eighth in :09 3/5 and galloped out in a mind-blowing :31 4/5. Their $50,000 yearling was now a $900,000 2-year-old headed to Bob Baffert. Fast forward to this past Saturday and his eagerly awaited debut, in which he charged to the lead and then settled nicely, setting what looked like a nice easy pace. But the tote board read :21 3/5 for the quarter and :43 4/5 for the half and he wasn’t even being asked. When Juan Hernandez finally set him down he drew clear on his own and coasted to a 7 1/2-length victory, earning a 94 Beyer figure, and like Nysos galloped out some 15 lengths ahead of the runner-up, who was about 15 lengths ahead of the others. With Zedan already having Muth, if he gets Derby fever in the next week I would guess he will not move this dynamite of a horse to another trainer at this early stage of his career.
MUTH (Good Magic – Hoppa, by Uncle Mo)
At least he has more of a Baffert foundation under him than Baffert’s other two freaks. Muth has proven himself to be a versatile, hard-knocking colt who simply was unable to handle Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Baffert has already done right by him this year by dropping him back to seven furlongs in the San Vicente, which he won impressively. That is an old-school move, as just about every superstar from the 1940s thru the 1970s who were successful 2-year-olds going a mile or farther began their 3-year-old campaign in a sprint. Trainers back then who were ready to embark on the Derby trail felt it was important to sharpen up their horses first. The last big-name 2-year-old to do that was juvenile champion Nyquist, who also won the San Vicente and then captured the Kentucky Derby. Nyquist, of course, is the sire of Nysos. We’ll have to wait and see what Zedan decides to do. The bottom line is that hopefully we will know by the next Rankings whether Churchill Downs has lost three of it’s top contenders and two of the most brilliant 3-year-olds in the country.
As you can see, we have started off with a Top 15 just to get a feel for this crop of 3-year-olds. If you don’t see the name of a Derby hopeful you are following, remember this is only week one and we don’t want to overload and dilute this section. There will be more horses mentioned in detail next week.
We’re also going to start off a bit differently this year because of the number of horses who were so brilliant breaking their maiden in sprints we can’t separate them and need to see how they do against winners. Each one looks capable of becoming the next exciting star on the Derby trail and another impressive victory will likely launch them into the Top 5.
The ones who provided that sensational knockout blow include Godolphin’s KNIGHTSBRIDGE, who demolished his field by 10 lengths going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs in 1:22 4/5. What was most impressive was running his final eighth in :12 1/5 while going from four lengths in front at the eighth pole to 10 lengths in front at the wire. He has a regal look about him with his arched neck and attractive head. beautiful head and the way he carries himself. He had his first work back for Bill Mott with a half-mile breeze in :50 1/5 at Payson Park. Another potential monster to keep a eye on is the Rick Dutrow-trained EL CAPI, a son of Maclean’s Music who put on a dazzling display of speed winning his debut going seven furlongs at Aqueduct by 9 1/2 lengths in a rapid 1:21 4/5 after blazing fractions of :44 3/5 and 1:08 3/5 ad earning a sensational “1/4” Thoro-Graph number. I don’t know how fast that sealed muddy track was, but you don’t see horses running that fast at Aqueduct in December, especially in their career debut. The big question obviously is how far this colt wants to go.
Next up we have the Saffie Joseph-trained MERIT, a son of Mastery, who I love as a sire and loved as a racehorse. All Merit did was win first out by 10 lengths going seven furlongs, and he did it coming just off the pace in third. Forget the time of 1:25 1/5, as the Gulfstream surface has been playing very slow. He did run a 92 Brisnet speed figure and a strong late pace figure of 104. Todd Pletcher looks to have a runner for the New York races in TUSCAN SKY, who won his career debut going six furlongs in the mud by 5 1/4 lengths and doing it from off the pace, while earning a strong 97 Brisnet speed figure. From a visual standpoint I like everything I see and the fact he is by Vino Rosso and his tail-female family includes stamina heavy horses Vigors and Ruritania pretty much assures that we’ll see improvement the farther he goes. Speaking of Pletcher and brilliant maiden sprint winners with a ton of stamina, BORN NOBLE has an even stronger distance pedigree, but still was able to win his career debut by 5 1/2 lengths going seven furlongs after tracking the early pace and drawing off in the stretch. I was so taken with his amazing tail-female family it inspired an entire column recently.
Two horses who broke their maiden impressively going two turns in their second start and bear watching are IMPERIAL GUN, a son of Gun Runner trained by Steve Asmussen, who did all the right things winning by 5 3/4 lengths at Oaklawn Park, and his stablemate, the $1.4 million yearling purchase HALL OF FAME, who no doubt loved stretching out, romping by 10 ¼ lengths at Fair Grounds after tracking the early pace from the inside. Another son of Gun Runner, he was being pushed at the three-eighths pole but had no trouble pulling away from the field and winning with complete authority. One horse who won big going two-turns in his fourth start was the Bill Mott-trained RESILIENCE, a son of Into Mischief who improved with first-time Lasix and the addition of John Velazquez in the saddle, drawing off to a 4 1/4-length victory at Gulfstream. His only inbreeding is to Halo, which bodes well for his class and stamina.
Steve Asmussen has several other promising 3-year-olds who bear watching, headed by two colts with excellent early speed who have shown they can carry it at least a mile. They are the hard-running OTTO THE CONQUEROR, who has battled on or close to the lead in all his races and is riding a three-race winning streak, including his Springboard Mile score, and the undefeated speedball CARBONE, who blasts out of the gate on his own and dares anyone to outrun him. So far, no one has come close. He is by sprint champion Mitole, who did win the Met Mile, and Mitole is by stamina influence Eskendereya and is a half-brother to Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Dubai World Cup runner-up Hot Rod Charlie. So it will be interesting to see how far Carbone can carry his speed.
I can’t write about Conquest Warrior without mentioning his stablemate CHANGE OF COMMAND, who has won his last two starts after finishing fourth, then third, then second in his first three starts. So he obviously is improving steadily. Both colts are owned by Don Adams’ Courtlandt Farms, who paid $1 million for Conquest Warrior at the Keeneland September yearling sale and $1,050,000 for Change of Command a bit later in the sale.
One of the more perplexing horses we’ve see so far is the runaway Pasco Stakes winner BOOK’EM DANNO, who no doubt will appeal to all Hawaii Five-O fans. A winner of four of his five starts by an average margin of 7 ½ lengths, he is a New Jersey-bred by an Indiana-bred sire who stood in New York. Book’em Danno has won the Smoke Glacken Stakes at Monmouth, the Futurity Stakes at Aqueduct, and the Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs, all sprints. His only defeat came when he stretched out to a mile and was caught late, finishing second. He has a ton of speed in his pedigree so we’ll see how far he wants to go.
We have to start off the year with one under-the-radar sleeper, and this week we’ll go with GETTYSBURG ADDRESS, who should be a good price next time out and might be sitting on a big effort. He began his career with a hard-earned victory at Ellis Park, wearing down the leader late. He went right into the Street Sense Stakes after scratching out of the Iroquois Stakes and set the pace, but tired on the sloppy track and faded to fourth. He ran next in the Smarty Jones Stakes and was creamed from both sides at the start, dropping back to last. He rallied late to finish fourth, beaten three lengths by Catching Freedom and missing second by a half-length. It will be interesting to see where Brad Cox runs him next.
Next week we will cover horses such as STRETCH RIDE, more on OTTO THE CONQUEROR, JUST STEEL, AIR OF DEFIANCE, BENTORNATO, the undefeated Japanese colt FOREVER YOUNG, and others.
Photo Courtesy of Benoit
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Well the one thing about OTELLO IS , He did have an 83 back in Nov and lets not forget he did bounce off the rail in his last race, so while agree Fierceness is the one to beat, the Curlin’s do improve in leaps and bounds as they get older so, ill throw some bucks his way to maybe spoil the apple cart.’
CDI gave an ultimatum, and they changed the date…. switching barns has not worked, so they all stood pat…..I thought this might happen this year….and Bob has some nice ones—that may make Saratoga in early June the place to be …
There are always positives, Matthew. The Met Mile might have a few of Bob Baffert’s 3 year olds this year. Maymun, this race is meant for you.
Yes Davids I thought that myself. .. Maymun in the Belmont and Nysos in the Met Mile….but they will need to sort things out— by running in PREPS…..nobody doing anything nefarious, CDI set the terms, they thought the owners would capitulate, and they did…at first but not this year, they and standing with Bob, we’re in a strange time, where people are trying to win by omitting their competition, CDI has made it personal, they SET THE TERMS and then they CHANGED THE TERMS……
I think it may be a good thing. While i agree he needed to be punished , he has done the time. I think what he will do now is run everything he has in these derby preps as if he was going to the derby. It will show how ridiculous these point preps as he denies other horses points making this yr derby probably pretty low to get into.
I understand the owners thumbing their nose at CDI, but will this add another year to the ban? The Hatfields and McCoys got started this way.
With the latest news that the owners will remain loyal to Bob Baffert, and not transfer their top colts to other trainers, I’ve listed my top 15 Derby prospects. Fierceness remains on top, but at this time, the other 14 are not necessarily in preferential order.
1) Fierceness
2) Track Phantom
3) Otello
4) Merit
5) El Capi
6) Otto the Conqueror
7) Sierra Leone
8) Snead
9) Catching Freedom
10) Real Men Violin
11) Locked
12) Dornoch
13) Knightsbridge
14) Carbone
15) Tuscan Sky (new addition)
As a follow up to the previous comment (Biill Dawson) the Los Angeles Times reported just two hours ago that not one owner with a three year old colt whereas Bob Baffert is the trainer is going to transfer their horses to another trainer on this deadline day as instructed by Churchill Downs.
I’ve already made known my opinions here but these owners just delivered basically Churchill Downs and CEO Bill Carstanjen the one finger salute.
I like your style John, thanks for the input.
Do you actually believe that anyone at CDI or CEO Bill Carstanjen really care? I’m certain no one will be losing sleep over the decisions of these enablers.
It’s not what I believe. I have my own opinions. But “really care”? Trying asking that question to Carstanjen some time.
Everyone has an opinion. I have a strong feeling that the folks at CDI won’t miss the headache associated with one BB. Also, his enablers spent multi millions to sit this one out….ouch!
When the first Saturday in May rolls around, I wonder how many owners that didn’t transfer their Derby prospects to other trainers, will be thinking, “Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda”. Loyalty is one thing, but money talks and BS walks. 🙂
No news on the baffert horses yet?? Little late in the evening to get anything now, so it’ll probably hit in the morning??
Almost three hours ago the Los Angeles Times reported Baffert was quoted to have told them “Nobody is going to transfer their horses.” That’s that.
I was not surprised for Speak Easy’s Beyer (100) on his marvelous 7 Furlongs in 1:21.96 … his 7 furlongs was the fastest at Gulfstream in the last three years. Even the record for the 7 furlongs of the Sir Shackleton Stakes is a comparable 1:21.92 by 4-YEAR-OLD Vekoma in 2020. For 3-year-olds you can confirm that the last fastest Swale was in 2016 (1:21.81). Furthermore, if you check the times for 7F-Graded Stakes at Gulfstream you would see that the standard is around 1:23.
It is easy to be gobsmacked by such displays of speed but sometimes things could go off course with racehorses …
You may remember an enigmatic colt bred by Juddmonte named Hidden Scroll who debuted at Gulfstream winning by 14 lenghts clocking an spectacular 1:34 4/5 for the mile on the slop. Among the colts he defeated that day was Bodexpress who subsequently was second in the Florida Derby as a maiden and ended his (4y-old) campaign capturing the Grade 1 Clark Stakes…
Anyway, Hidden Scroll was “rushed” to the FOY stakes and the Florida Derby and failed in both Stakes as the favorite…His Bill Mott was as perplexed as anyone.
Another perplexing case was Dennis’ Moment’s. He lost his jockey in his 2-year-old debut but broke his maiden next out by 19 lengths in 1:21 4/5 for the 7F at Ellis. The son of Tiznow won the Iroquous Stakes next and then decided he did not like to run anymore after an awful stumbling at the start of the BC Juvenile.
So, using optimistic caution for Speak Easy, I would like to wait til his third start to make a better judgement about his potential as a Triple Crown player.
It was Justify’s third start (winning the Santa Anita Derby) what stamped him as freak … then again, you may say that this happened with Rock your World as well but never won a race again after his (3rd start) romp in the Santa Anita Derby…
You know what I meant with having a wary attitude when it comes to finding a super star these days…
Nelson, this is the time of year when newly minted 3YOs come out of the woodwork and stamp themselves as contenders. I personally think that Speak Easy is the real thing — even if he’s trained by Todd Pletcher! TAP is due for another Derby, but then Steve Asmussen is long overdue for his first. Will be interesting to see how Speak Easy progresses. So far none of Asmussen’s horses looks like another Epicenter but you don’t have to have the most touted horse to win the Derby.
Eagerly awaiting Steve Haskin’s next column. I expect he’s texted every owner of a Baffert-trained horse and is awaiting news on whether the plan is to stand pat or to transfer. I have a sixth sense that this is the year most if not all owners have had enough of the CD ban.
You never know, Nelson. Mage won the same race last year that Speak Easy won and he went on to take the roses. How often does history repeat? You lose a Parchment Party but gain a Speak Easy. The chess board to the Kentucky Derby will continue to play out its game. We are mere pawns playing our part as we head to Churchill Downs in three month’s time.
At least we now know something concrete, the Bob Baffert trained horses won’t be competing which is a windfall for all the other owners and trainers that desperately desire to capture those red roses.
According to Mike Maker, The Wine Steward is back in training with light gallops the last couple of weeks. He’s not sharing any plans for TWS’s next race but also has not ruled out the Derby. At this point, I would think it unlikely that The Wine Steward would be tight enough for a run at the Derby, but you never know until he runs in a couple of preps.
Today, January 29th is D-Day, as in decision day for the owners of their respective colts to either stand pad with Bob Baffert or transfer them to other trainers. It should be an interesting day.
No news yet on the Baffert horses? Have all the owners decided to stick with him, and miss a shot at the KD?
He began his career with Melair, became a trainer of good sprinters….finally breaking thru with Accelerate, and then his opus, Flightline— perhaps John Sadler gets called up by the Hall of Fame committee….
I was pleased AND shocked to learn Speak Easy had earned a 100 Beyer in his debut race and win at Gulfstream Saturday. If you haven’t seen that race, watch it now. He’s bound to be a player on the Derby trail. And since deleting all the Baffert horses from my personal top 10 list decimated it, Speak Easy vaulted all the way to No. 3. No doubt I will have lots of new choices from the packed stakes/allowance/maiden races offered next weekend. Good luck to all, and may every horse return to the barn sound.
Hi Ms Blacktype
I was very impressed with Speak Easy as well. He stalked fractions of 22.64, 44.61, 1:09.03 with a finishing time of 1:21.96, drawing off by 1 3/4 lengths. He earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 92, but received a Beyer Figure of 100, which I thought was more indicative of his outstanding maiden performance.
Speak Easy is certainly one to watch moving forward. I suspect that Steve will mention him in his KOTD segment on tomorrow’s “Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 2.
There were four horses within three lengths, they must’ve all received high numbers
The Dubai World Cup Races nominations have just been posted.
For anyone interested, you can see the list at DubairacingclubDOTcom
Total of 868 individual horses for the 8 races representing 19 countries.
Nine previous longshot winners of the BCJ –
2019 – Storm The Court – 46/1 – Next start -San Vicente – finished 4th
2017 – Good Magic – 12/1 – Next start -FOY – finished 3rd
2014 – Texas Red -14/1 – Next start -San Vicente – finished 2nd
2013 – New Years Day – 11/1 – Retired thereafter
2009 – Vale Of York – 31/1 – Next start – finished 5th
2006 – Street Sense – 16/1 Next start -Tampa Bay Derby – finished 1st
2004 – Wilko 29/1 Next start – H/Futurity 3rd San Vicente – finished 3rd; 3YO debut San Felipe – finished 4th
2003 – Action This Day -27/1 – Next start -Shame – finished 4th
1999 – Anees 31/1 – Next start – San Felipe – finished 3rd
Of the 9 longshot BCJ winners cited above only Street Sense was a next out winner. He holds the record for the widest winning margin (10L). He was only prevailed by a Nose.
Fierceness won the 2023 BCJ at 16/1. The colt will make his 3YO debut in the Holy Bull. Given his impressive BCJ win, the consensus is, he just has to show up to win. However, the historic record regarding next out starts for longshot BCJ winners, should influence a moment of pause. The big question has to be. Can Fierceness defy the unflattering history of next out starts for longshot BCJ winners?
I concur the field is modest. But 3YOs can improve over night. There is an entrant that I think doesn’t need a whole lot of improvement to defeat Fierceness. That entrant is Domestic Product. Like Fierceness he broke his maiden impressively and then ran next out on a muddy/Sealed track and was badly beaten.
Domestic Product broke his maiden over 9F in a very good time of 1:50.97. He was beaten by 16L in the Remsen. This equates to him running 1:53 plus for distance he covered 3 second faster in his previous start. He is better than his Remsen result.
He will be cutting back to 8 1/2F and with approximately 2 months between starts, he should be competitive. He his big colt that displayed a lot of power in his maiden breaker. I much prefer his stride mechanics to that of Fierceness. He appears very athletic for his size.
He was very aggressive in the early phase of the Remsen. The blinkers have been removed for the HB and this should make him less aggressive and aid his explosive stretch kick.
Given the bit of history above, I consider Fierceness a bet against. I know I am crazy. But we must never forget that it’s a horse race and on any given Saturday the biggest favorite can bite the dust, despite its fierceness.
Hey Counter Point
The colt that I like, that should be rolling late in the Holy Bull, is Otello. He’s a Siena Farms homebred, with the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, which has been very successful in producing winners of Triple Crown races, (19 at last count). Undefeated in two starts, Otello is trained by Christophe Clement and will have Luis Saez in the irons, who has always been one of the better riders at GP.
I’d appreciate any thoughts you might have on Otello.
Thanks Counter Point.
Your posts are eerily similar to Cold Facts. If so, I respect your opinions. However, in the case of Fierceness being a longshot for the BCJ, it was very obvious the horse was a tremendous underlay. I wouldn’t put too much stock in odds. Unfortunately, the general betting public gets the favorite home at an average of 30%.
As for Domestic Product, he needs more seasoning to compete with the post time favorite. GL this Saturday.
Hey Bill,
Remember Good Money, the son of Good Magic out of a Distorted Humor mare, that I had mentioned as one to watch when debuting… well, I forgot to mention that he won his 7F debut at Tampa convincingly defeating a highly regarded Pletcher prospect named Acclaimed Victor (Omaha Beach- Color Me Flying by Distorted Humor). The time was a respectable 1:23 4/5. It is already late for the TC series but he could be participating in Stakes by summer.
Another Pletcher prospect close to debut is Secret Crush (Candy Ride-Elarose by Storm Cat). He looks exceptional in his workouts at Palm Beach Downs and with the same cross as the unforgettable Shared Belief, he could be another high quality runner in the already loaded barn.
don’t remember if I mentioned Good Money to you or to Matthew … anyway it is satisfactory to identify those winners early especially if they are not favorites…
Hi Nelson
I don’t recall that you mentioned Good Money to me, so it was probably Matthew.
BTW, we did discuss Speed Runner who we thought would be a perfect for the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, on Saturday. Evidently, Todd Pletcher thought otherwise, he moved him South. Today, Speed Runner worked 4F, over the turf course at Palm Meadows. It appears Mr. Pletcher will point him to a turf race somewhere down the road. Does this mean that Speed Runner is off the Derby trail. Time will tell.
My guess is that the breeder/owner (Whisper Hill Farm) wants to replicate the success they had with Grand Sonata on the turf after his two first starts on dirt. They may want to take the same route towards the rich Derby Invitationals on turf at Belmont and Saratoga. Kentucky Downs will be a inviting target for his connections…
Anyway, that is the puzzle you have to solve when you have dozens of top prospects in your barn… keeping all your owners happy is quite challenging.
Depending on how good Speed Runner performs on turf he could be trying the Preakness or the Belmont…just thinking out loud…
I watched the Eclipse Awards ceremony Thursday night on the Blood Horse site. It was the first time I had ever seen that event, and I thought it was a wonderful night for racing. It involved many moving stories and worthy winners, and I thought everything was handled beautifully. The tragedies of the year were not emphasized but neither were they covered up, and I thought that was important. Maple Leaf Mel got a nomination and some writers were honored for their stories about her. I particularly liked Mr. Janney’s speech in which he said he was reminded every day about the best and worst sides of racing when he looked at Ruffian’s two awards. The rest of the night was about the triumphs–the Horse of the Year being announced by Cody’s sister and awards being presented to just about everybody connected with that horse. I also was happy for Fierceness–not surprised but happy–and for many other winners. It was a lovely occasion, and I’m glad I got to see it.
I thought Stuart Janney’s speech was excellent as well, especially the emphasis of everyone in racing working together and not opposing each other. Together we stand, divided we fall.
Earlier in this discussion someone mentioned Noted, and that brought to mind a question I’ve had since the Breeder’s Cup–not an earth-shaking matter but something I wondered about. Irad Ortiz rode Fierceness in his first two races but he rode Noted in the Juvenile. Did Irad actually prefer Noted to Fierceness at that time or did someone else make that decision?
It is easy to assume that Irad was disappointed by Fierceness blunder in the Champagne and he was satisfied with the huge effort of Noted at Keeneland loosing the Bourbon by a nose albeit on turf.
When it comes to the Triple Crown having Johny V on your side is not a bad idea anyways…
Thank you. I think we were all disappointed with Fierceness’ race in the Champagne, but I’m glad I stuck with him, anyway.
Noted is entered in the Kitten’s Joy, a GRASS stakes, on the same card as the Holy Bull, as is First World War.
Davids-
Mike Byrne
Name of video on you tube: The Irish Stallion Trail: Inside Ireland’s Coolmore Stud
Thanks Lynda, Mike Byrne is definitely saying outcross with reference to Wootton Bassett but I may be more accustomed to the Irish brogue. Those rolling vowels merge quite a bit. Ha ha
Congrats to trainer Mel her Mel’s little sis broke her maiden nicely at aqueduct
I’m happy to hear that. My best wishes to both of them.
That made my day when I heard she won!
Fierceness is a towering presence in the Holy Bull next Saturday.
1-Hades and 3-Otello (winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes) are undefeated in two starts but they have to get much more faster to try challenging the champion.
Fierceness looked extremely dominant in his two 5F-workouts in company. The first 1:01 with Locked and then 59 2/5 with Born Noble… Two very good horses in their own rigth.
All the reports suggest that a winning 3-year-old debut is justified… generally the champion 2-year-old start with a win as a sophomore…!
Hey Nelson
Yeah, it should be a walk in the park for Fierceness in the Holy Bull. Have you had a chance to look over the Southwest Stakes entrants.
I’m hoping Otto the Conqueror continues his winning streak and make it 4 wins in a row. Maycocks Bay is entered in the Southwest as well and has the highest late pace figure in the field, at 102.
Any thoughts you may have on how you see the race unfolding, would be appreciated.
BTW, I’m hoping Otello gives Fierceness all he can handle in the Holy Bull.
Hi Bill.
In the Holy Bull I can foresee Sea Streak being sent hard early from the outer post. Paco Lopez and Irad Ortiz will display their usual agressiveness with Hades and Inveigled respectively trying to benefit from a rail trip. No More Time will be closer to the pace this time.
Fireceness could be rating in third or, given his superiority, he can easily take the lead when Johny V decides to do so.
Otello wil be making his bid in the homestretch but by then Fireceness would have drown clear from the field.
Dancing Groom will be closing fast for the exotic placings.
So, it would be an easy $1-Tri: Fierceness, Otello, Dancing Groom
Hey Nelson and Bill:
Just saw the entries for both of next Saturday’s races. Fierceness indeed towers over the field in the Holy Bull, but the Southwest could produce some surprises. Maycock’s Bay stands out to me in that race (maybe worth a $2 flyer for me) but it’s a wide open field.
Yes indeed, several big races coming up on Saturday. Also, keep an eye on Ari’s Magic and Merit, they’re entered in the 6th race at GP, both colts are on my Derby watch list. I like Merit as the likely winner and move on to a stakes race down the road.
AND the second start from impressive maiden winner Born Noble in the same race, who is already on my top 12 list. Next weekend is packed with races for promising 3YOs. I’ve yet to hear about entries for the Withers and Robert B. Lewis, but I’m sure we soon will.
I see Liberal Arts, Wynstock or Carbone as the possible winner in the Southwest. The early pace in the Southwest will be contentious with at least 7 strong frontrunners or early pressers.
Born Noble is ready to defeat Merit in a key allowance at Gulfstream (5th race on Saturday Feb 3rd).
The 3 horse in the Southwest, Magic Grant, is interesting to me and will be a huge number. He was closing fast (ok, Otto the Conqueror and Glengarry were probably backing up fast) at the end of the Springboard mile. Magic Grant looked very professional in that race, settling in nicely and making a sustained run late just like he did in winning the Clever Trevor stakes.
He obviously will have to run a much faster number, but I agree 100% that there is a lot of speed in this race. Carbone is by Mitole, there are 2 (maybe 3?) Speightstowns, and Otto the Conqueror has been placed on or just off the lead in all of his races so far. And Just Steel just fired a 1/39 bullet work, and has been best sprinting. From the 11 post he will try to get into it early. If Magic Grant can make a step forward, I like him for the exotics.
One more thing – I like his workout pattern. He as 1/12 at the 5F distance on 1/3, a full second faster than 2/12. Then he came back with a nice maintenance work on 1/26. Of the 39 works at the distance, a dozen were Lucas horses and all were in no-holds barred workout mode.
Don’t forget the Swale Stakes, Nelson. I’m excited on seeing the return of Legalize.
Oh Yes…! Legalize looks ready for an exciting matchup with Risk It and Bentornato.
Colorado Cruiser will be a good barometer for the quality in the West.
The TC trail will be rolling pretty well next week… hope for safe runs for everyone…
Fingers crossed for the weather as well. Here we haven’t had a hot summer at all more like an extended Spring. The grass is still lush green which is very unusual for Melbourne at this time of year.
I visit a lot of YouTube channels to see the various KD top 10 lists. Most if not all lists have Todd Pletcher’s 1st and 3rd place finishers in the BCJ ranked at 1 & 2. Given the KD win record of BCJ participants and the trainer’s KD record. The rankings are a bit surprising.
In a previous post regarding the Parchment Party. I specified that I consider the colt to be a special talent. But given the fact that there is no available record of a June foal ever winning the KD. One of the hurdles PP had to clear was history. And sometimes it’s the most challenging hurdle of all. The colt is not off the KD Trail.
A previous supporter highlighted that only two BCJ winners have returned to win the KD. Many didn’t even face the starter in the KD. A deeper dive into BCJ winners reveals an even more significant negative.
The five fastest winning times recorded in BCJ prior to 2023 were all below 1:42. Midshipman’s 1:40.94 is the fastest to date, but it was recorded on synthetic. But of significance, only two of those winners faced the KD starter and both finished off the board. The other three didn’t make the starting gates.
Fierceness is the 6th BCJ winner to record a 1:41 plus winning time. No BCJ winner with such a fast time has come close to winning the KD. But there is always an opportunity for history to be made.
Given Bob Baffert’s KD record. Few would probably know that none of his three BCJ winners returned to win the KD. In fact, of the three only one (Game Winner) faced the KD starter and the result was an off the board finish. Todd Pletcher’s record with his 3 previous BCJ winners is even worse. None faced the KD starter.
Do analysts take into consideration these cold facts when assigning rankings? Are these cold facts so insignificant that their dismissals is automatic?
I am of the opinion that Locked deserves to be ranked ahead of Fierceness from a historical perspective. Why? KD winners Spend A Buck and Alysheba were 3rd place finishers in the BCJ. Further, 3rd place BCJ finishers Tejano Run and Cat Thief made the top 3 in the KD. I would place an asterisk against Fierceness or not rank him at all. This is purely based on his trainer’s record with BCJ winners. A trainer cannot be divorced from his record.
There are historic negatives and positives regarding TP’s two colts. But the pertinent question has to be. Can TP’s KD entrant be trusted? No one with a straight face can state that if not for the misfortunes suffered by Ice Box and Classic Empire, TP wouldn’t be still on zero in the KD.
Locked benefits from being the work partner of Fierceness, stalking on his flank, which isn’t his forte…..Locked is my top pick this year …as the year progresses I expect Maymun to be a danger, for all he faces … Fierceness is the deserving #1, I can’t find fault in the big son of City of Light….
Never doubt Steve’s information; DRF reported today that trainer Bill Mott confirmed the June Foal needs more maturing and will be on the farm for 60 days. He is, unfortunately, off the Derby trail.
With all the love and amazement we have for the four year old Kabirkhan we have not one mention of 3-year-old Mendelssohn Bay also winning the mile of the UAE 2000 Guineas at Meydan.
We have witnessed such a magnificent group of sophomores here that it is impractical to follow their peers in Dubai… however, since the son of Mendelssohn (second crop) won this prep for the UAE Derby it deserves at least a quick note.
Mendelssohn Bay looked very solvent winning in 98 flat for the mile which is comparable to the 97 4/5 clocked by a millionaire and Group 1 winner Hypothetical in winning the Group 3 Firebreak Stakes.
The same way Karbikhan reminds us of his beloved Sire, Mendelssohn Bay is evoking his sire (Mendelssohn) who won the UAE Derby 18½ lenght in in record time. His damsire is non other than Curlin who won the Dubai World cup. So, Mendelssohn Bay could claim a sort of license to be good at Meydan as well. Mendelssohn Bay’s second dam is half to champion mare Escena.
The UAE Derby is more likely to be belonging to the Japanese nowadays but still Mendelssohn Bay could be getting some qualyfing points there… and he will surely run better than his sire in the Derby…
Thank you Nelson for mentioning Mendelssohn Bay!
I had it on my mind to mention him but got distracted.
I loved Mendelssohn. He was my favorite to win the Kentucky Derby eventhough some people laughed and made fun of me on the old Blood Horse blog.
Mendelssohn had to be eased in the Derby but he proved to be a respectable 10-furlong horse after his second in the Travers, his 3rd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and even his 5th only 4 lengths behind champion Accelerate.
I respect all those horses coming from overseas to face the best horses of the time in America… this entails an extra challenge and no one would deny that Mendelssohn was a very respectable fast horse in the four Grade 1 races he disputed at the end of 2018.
So anyone who made fun at you were not laughing at the end …
*behind Accelerate in the BC Classic.
Aiden took responsibility for Mendy’s performance in the Derby.
I recall him saying in an interview after the race that he not prepared him for the race and the conditions.
Ryan Moore was totally disgusted. He made the right decision to ease Mendy and not risk injury.
That was an absolutely horrible race as to weather and track conditions.
Winning dirt races in the United States has been a learning curve for trainers from other countries.
Stepping away from the Derby trail for a moment, this is my take on the NFL Conference Championship games today.
Kansas City Chiefs, + 4.5, and the over, (44 points)
Detroit Lions, + 7.5, and the under, (52 points).
Enjoy the games, folks.
Both of my teams covered the point spread, but I missed the over and under on both games.
Once again, the Kansas City Chiefs will be in the Super Bowl, this time facing the SF Niners.
I’ll go with the Chiefs to win it again.
Bill good picking! I thought Detroit looked like the best team of all four yesterday, but for a tough day by Goff, he couldn’t hit the long routes, something he does most of the time— they could have routed the Niners, had Goff been more accurate…..that said I think it’s best to get down on the 49ers early—I think they will get bet and spread will climb …I also think they are going to win….
Thanks for the reply, Matthew W
I blame the Lions loss on their head coach, Dan Campbell. Going for it, on 4th down, instead of kicking makable field goals (on two occasions) were bad decisions. You should always go for the points on the road, IMO.
Oaklawn is running TWO allowance optional claimers for 3YOs this afternoon between 3 and 4 Eastern.
Some potential starters for the Rebel coming up in late February include:
TEJON PASS, NEXT LEVEL, and FOOTPRINT in race 6. Tejon Pass and Footprint on first time Lasix.
GETTYSBURG ADDRESS, GOLD SWEEP, MAXIMUS MAGIC and NORTHERN FLAME in race 8. The first three are on first time Lasix.
Hopefully, Gettysburg Address can break through with a win here.
Gettysburg Address got into trouble again. Not sure if it’s the jockey or the horse but it’s the same mistake being replicated in each race. Persevering with the Derby seems a stretch at this stage.
Olivier, Flightline’s full brother, showed little in Race 5. at Oaklawn today on his debut. At the sales there was little if any physical resemblance of the two horse. Hopefully, Olivier manages to win a few in the next couple of years. Hard to emulate perfection, though.
Davids, I was curious how Olivier did in his race.
Thank you for the update.
He does have nice conformation, good legs, no sloping long pasterns, has good bone and nice shoulder.
I checked out his works in Equibase and is perhaps a little inconsistent but that is to be expected in a young horse.
Hopefully he will improve.
Lynda, I watched Olivier race a second time and felt better about the race. As well, I caught an interview with Rodolphe Brisset which was prior to the race and he said he wasn’t expecting much, just running him, because the horse at this stage has no idea what he’s doing out there.
At the sales, Olivier looked heavy, awkward, lacking athleticism and maturity so it wasn’t a surprise with the RNA. He looks much better now but will take time.
Sounds kinda like Secretariat at that age, LOL.
Not sure when the photo was taken that I saw.
He looked to be in a growth spurt, croup up, and a little unbalanced.
Footprint should have won his race by 7 lengths, talk about a troubled trip and only lost by a sneeze. Courageous colt.
Skippylongstocking is reportedly OK this morning.
Tyler G eased him back after he felt Skippy going weak. Possibly overheated.
He eas banned off in an abundance of caution.
Thank you Tyker for taking care of Skippy!
Have a great Sunday everyone. Sunny skies here today after 3 days of poring rain.
NBC didn’t even mention he was eased. Glad to hear Skippy is all right. Glad you have sun — we have wet snow. At least it’s fun to watch, and we don’t even have to go out in it to get wood for the fire.
Snow is in the forecast north of us.
We seem to be in a pattern of cold temperatures with wind follow by warming temperatures and rain. This coming week will be normal temperatures for this region…highs only in the forties and low 30’s at night.
I did not have to crank up the woodstove the past 3 days but will today and this coming week.
My neighbor across the road already has hers going today.
My wet weather pond in the back pasture is full today, that is how much rain we got.
It’s only January and I’m getting tired of bringing in wood!
Me too!!!
Skippy gave it everything he had to be up with the speed early. I think Tyler has grown into a careful rider, and he and Joel Rosario are two of my favorite filly riders. Both are very in tune with their mounts, and won’t force them to what they cannot give. The day of the Troy (which of course was an awful day at Saratoga), he brought Caravel through the mucky turf with such care to get her back to the barn safe. Lord knows, he’s seen enough of the bad days. I am really glad that game Skippy is ok, and hopefully he will be back for another shot as the Spring goes along.
NBC’s coverage leaves so much to be desired, doesn’t it?
Agree about Tyler and Joel!
NBC’s coverage leaves much to be desired these days for sure.
In a world of million dollar babies sired by stallions with 85 million dollar stud deals and out of Blue Hen mares, elite owners, Hall of Fame trainers and jockeys, magical things still happen in this sport.
When a $12,000 stallion sires a colt that sells for $12,000 to foreign interests half way around the world to a remote region where he trains and races on a dirt track that is little more than a dirt path through a forest of shrubs with a rickety, rusting starting gate; sagging tape as a guard rail; 3″ deep mud puddles every ten feet and dogs sleeping on the track, magical things still happen in this sport.
When this colt travels to Meydan, wins 2 prestigious stakes races in two weeks and ridden by a jockey making his first trip to Meydan, magical things still happen in this sport.
When this colt’s small contingent of owners, trainers and fans jump for joy into the air and into each other’s arms and smile broadly and laugh through their tears of joy, magical things still happen in this sport.
When this colt from the backwoods and forests wins easily, does not even break a sweat, is not breathing hard and has enough energy to rear straight up when the Longines blanket is placed on his back, magical things still happen in this sport.
When someone sees a photo of this colt as he crosses the finish line that is so reminiscent of his sire crossing that same finish line and notices a diamond shaped pattern etched into his coat on his rump, you know a “magical thing” has happened in this sport.
Horses from the wrong side of the track, from humble beginnings, that are diamonds in the rough that somehow miraculously make their way to the world stage keeps this sport alive, keeps the dream alive.
Perhaps the racing gods are telling us something.
Hi Lynda: Lovely post about Kabirkhan. Where did you discover his back story?
I belong to a FB group that follows Chrome’s progeny here in the US, Chile, Japan and other parts of the world.
We knew Kabirkhan was leaving for Meydan and being transferred to Doug Watson.
Doug Watson has been in that region for about ten years now. His specialty is bringing horses from Europe to be trained up for the racing carnivales.
Doug was a protégé of Shug McGauhey before going out on his own in the UAE.
As Nelson mentioned below it will be interesting to see how he does in the World Cup against the top horses from the US, Japan and Ireland.
I read this morning that Senor Buscador, 2nd in the Pegasus, is going over to run in the Saudi Cup.
Plans are not set in stone yet for Kabirkhan, there are several options but the World Cup seems to be the most likely one.
Part of the fun in following horse racing for me is following the progeny of the stallions and the mares. I also enjoy seeing the photos and occasional videos of the foals each year, especially the freshman sires.
Excellent post.
Seconded. Always great posts, always with great information and insight. Always with compassion. Thanks, Lynda.
I am as excited about this news on Senor Buscador as anything in racing so far in 2024. (BTW, How about Mineshaft, with two starters in the Pegasus? They’re 5 & 6, but still… what a fine old man!)
Yeah Preakness winner national treasure wins the Pegasus ! Plus flatters horse of the year ! Cody’s wish !
Speak Easy, by Constitution, out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare, looked very impressive today, breaking his maiden at first asking. He sat just off the pace, which was fast, (22.64, 44.61, 1:09.03 finishing in 1:21.96). Trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by super-hot rider Irad Ortiz Jr., I was shocked he went off at 8-1.
There was a lot of discussion today on the merits of homebred colts, and the success they have achieved in Triple Crown races. Speak Easy is a WinStar Farm home bred colt that can be added to that list of home bred colts that Nelson Mann shared with us this afternoon.
It might be too late for the connections to have him pointed to a Derby Prep race, but you never know, they just might take a shot somewhere down the road.
BTW, his dam side, tracks back to Affirmed and War Admiral. Both of these renown horses were noted carriers of the X-Factor large heart gene. It follows that Speak Easy could be a carrier of the gene as well.
Bottom line, keep an eye on Speak Easy moving forward.
Speak Easy and Just a Touch were the two captivating debutants today. Speak Easy speed ratings should come up on the high side considering that the Grade 2 Inside Information was run by older mares logging :22.20, :44.82, 1:10.27, 1:23.04 … Olivia Darling was 6-length slower. Even the time of Tumbarumba to win the mile of the Fred Hooper was slower if you were to project the 1:21.96 of Speak Easy. Furthermore, if you scrutinize the fractions and final time of the Pegasus Cup you would that the track yield was not very fast.
Just a Touch(Justify – Touching Beauty by Tapit) showed a very strong and agressive gallop to win in above standard time of 1:10 2/5 for a sloppy track.
I am normally wary of outstanding performances on sealed tracks but Just a Touch was highly regarded due to his excellent workouts.
Just a Touch ran the 6F in 01:10.50 and the Stakes horse Gun Pilot clocked 01:10.47 over the muddy sealed track an hour later.
As you said, they are worth following down the road as two very promising colts among the new faces in January.
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
Speak Easy earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 92, which is pretty damn good for a maiden win, IMO. It was good to read that you and I are on the same page regarding Speak Easy moving forward.
Thanks for the heads up on Just a Touch. I’ll be sure to keep an eye on him moving forward.
Olivia Darling got an Equibase of 98 despite her time being more than a second slower… that is why I wanted to see other figures … I am expecting some being better for Speak Easy than those of Olivia Darling…Equibase is too fast in assigning speed figures … it would be great if they were to wait until all the races in the card are run to have better assessments…
Considering Olivia Darling got a 99 for a time more than a second slower a few races later, Speak Easy’s Beyer should be higher. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was lower, though. The Beyer people grade on the curve when it comes to unproved horses.
Even the fractional times for Speak Easy are faster.
Speak Easy: (:22.64, :44.61, 1:09.03, 1:21.96)
Olivia Darling: (:22.20, :44.82, 1:10.27, 1:23.04)
If the track condition is unchanged one hour later it does not make sense to just IGNORE the fact that one ran faster than another from the half mile to the finish.
Perhaps the Thoro-Graph figure brings some sense about the fastest 7 furlongs ran at Gulfstream for some time…
WOW, Warm Heart wins the Pegasus and sets a new track record!
Pegasus Turf.
It was one of the best rides of Ryan Moore in America…!
That was a bold move to get through on the rail… Calvin Borel was infamous for that and that is how Johnny V won thd Belmont Stakes on Union Rags
She is lovely, very feminine filly. She will be retired after this race and bred to Justify.
I tried to compile the possible next races for Steve’s ranked horses and came up with the following schedule:
Fierceness——>Holy Bull
Locked———->Sam F. Davis
Sierra Leone—->The Withers
Timberlake——>Rebel, RisenStar, Louisiana Derby
Parchment Party- Out
Dornoch——>????
Honor Marie——->Southwest
Otello——————–>The Withers, Holy Bull, Southwest
Conquest Warrior——->The Withers
Catching Freedom——>Southwest, Rebel
Track Phantom—>Risen Star
Snead————->Risen Star
Liberal Arts——->Southwest
Real Men Violin—>Southwest
Stronghold——–>Southwest
It seems like the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on February 3rd will be the closest race stirring the ranking the most …
Not sure about Otello’s and Dornoch’s path forward… if any of you got more certainty about prospect’s next planned race, please, feel more than welcome to add or correct any of these targets…
Dornoch – Fountain of Youth
Thanks Discopartner… I am updating my table with your information.
He’s one of my picks to win the Derby, is a striking looking horse.
Indeed… he looks bigger and stronger than his full brother Mage… and that along his proven grit says a lot about him going forward.
Because of this Bob Baffert nonsense of Monday’s deadline and not knowing what to do with his horses the Rankings will be published on Tuesday as will next week with 4 major stakes.
Also some late breaking news, Parchment Party is off the Derby trail and will be turned out for a while.
Steve, that’s the most disappointing thing about the Kentucky Derby Trail these days, the uncertainty on whether the ones you start to fall in love with are going to last the distance. Parchment Party was ‘almost’ one for me but he hadn’t one a stakes race yet which saved some of the disappointment.
CDI should take the opportunity to get out the list of “psychopathic Corporations”…
Nelson, totally agree.
Lets be frank.
After all is said and done, no matter if one likes BB or not, the Quality of the Derby is probably at its lowest.
Hope the Jockey club or whoever grades the races take not of this.
Right now no matter how one looks at this race, ITS MORE LIKE A RESTRICTED RACE.
While the BC Juvenile winners are almost dismissed to win the Derby the homebred horses have won one of two Derbies since 1940. In the span of those 84 years 42 homebred horses have won the first leg of the Triple Crown.
In stark contrast, out of the 21 BC Juvenile winners (in 39 years of its history) only Street Sense and Nyquist were able to take the Roses. In the same period there have been 15 homebreds winning the Derby… (please remember that American Pharoah did not run in the BC Juvenile).
This kind of success is more astonishing if you consider that the number of horses sold at public auctions are many folds greater than hombebreds.
Bringing your own horse could cost from a meager $700 invested to engender Carry Back and the 10K for California Chrome to the enormous investments of breeding powerhouses like Calumet, King Ranch, Darby Dan, Meadow Stable and most recently Juddmonte.
You would assume that the numbers are skewed by taking a romantic era when the American millionaires and aristocrats took pride in breeding and running their own horses. However, if you take the last eleven (11) Derbies you will see six (6) hombebred winners. Even if you dismiss Country House and deem Maximum Security as the nominal winner you will also find that both are homebred colts.
Those who dare to risk it to breed and run their own Thoroughbreds have found out that “Staircase to Heaven” is not just a song…
To just keep track of the homebred prospects I am labeling the 28 horses covered by Steve in the first ranking of the year.
HORSE Auction Price($)
Fierceness……..Homebred
Otello……………Homebred
Liberal Arts……..Homebred
Stronghold……..Homebred
KNIGHTSBRIDGE.Homebred
MERIT……………Homebred
RESILIENCE…….Homebred
CARBONE……….Homebred
BOOK’EM DANNO…Homebred
Sierra Leone: 2300K
HALL OF FAME: 1400K
CHANGE OF COMMAND: 1050K
Conquest Warrior: 1000K
BORN NOBLE: 725K
Catching Freedom: 575K
Track Phantom: 500K
Parchment Party: 450K
OTTO THE CONQUEROR: 450K
Locked: 425K
GETTYSBURG ADDRESS: 375K
IMPERIAL GUN: 375K
Timberlake: 350K
Dornoch: 325K
Snead: 325K
EL CAPI: 220K
TUSCAN SKY: 200K
Real Men Violin: 110K
Honor Marie: 40K
For many of us the auction price is not that a big handicapping factor but it could be helpful to note that the average purchase price of the Derby winners since 2000 is K480 or K210 if you dismiss Fusaichi Pegasus’ 4 Million price tag.
It seems there won’t be any Mine that Bird ($9.5K), Funny Cide ($22K) or I’ll Have Another ($35K) this year…
Thanks for sharing your statistical information, Nelson. I remember in the 90s, Keeneland would proudly transparently show how successful their sales graduates were on the track. From memory, in the September Sales, 7% would achieve Grade 1 wins, 17% Graded Stakes wins, and 30% black type. I always thought this was fraught with danger but in those times capital was much more fluid for such conspicuous follies. Now, even Coolmore like to share the expenses with others. lol.
Speaking of California Chrome, did you see one of his sons, Kabirkhan, win the Group 1, Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan a few hours ago? The line might continue on.
Davids, I have been following Kahbirkhan for quite some time.
He is a 4 year old colt out of Little Emily (Castledale-IRE) and was bred by Kehner Thoroughbreds in Kentucky.
He was sold at auction to Russian interests for $12,500.
He won the Grade 1 Longines Al Maktoum Challege Race by 5 lengths easily and has the same stretch kick as Chrome. He was still full of energy in the winner’s circle and reared a couple of times.
This is his second win in two starts in Meydan. The first win was ten days ago in the Dubai Islands Handicap.
Appearance wise he looks very much like Chrome; chestnut with 3 stockings and a blaze.
His trainer is Doug Watson, an American who has lived and trained in the UAE for a number of years. I read that his specialty is bringing European horses to the UAE. Mr Watson is an 8 time UAE Champion trainer.
The Al Maktoum is the same race that Mendelssohn won in 2018 in record time that still stands.
This win gives him an automatic birth in the World Cup and from what I read, the Breeders Cup.
His record so far:
Winnings: 11 Starts: 10 – 1 – 0, RUB 5,275,000 + KZT 1,627,500 + AED 126,000 + $600,000
At 2: 1st Favorite Stakes(KAZ-LGI,Almaty,D1600m)
At 3: 1st Pyatigorsk Derby Stakes(RUS-LGI,Pyatigorsk,AW2400m), Nalchik Derby Stakes(RUS-LGI,Nalchik,AW2400m), M.N.Efros Stakes(RUS-LGII,Pyatigorsk,AW2000m), Season Opening Stakes(RUSLGIII,Nal’chik,D1800m); 2nd Russian Derby(RUS-LGI,Krasnodar,D2400m)
At 4: 1st Al Maktoum Challenge (G1,Meydan,1900m), Dubai Islands H. (2000m,Meydan Racecourse,win: AED 126,000)
The plan is for him to race in the Dubai World Cup.
Since you follow racing in France, you might recall Castledale’s sire, Peintre Celebre.
Thanks Lynda, Kabirkhan certainly has a checkered background. His trainer/owner must have truly believed in his abilities. Let’s hope this flag bearer for California Chrome can continue.
Peintre Celebre was a brilliant racehorse that could explode from the pack winning the Arc and Prix du Jockey Club in the same year becoming the European Horse of the Year with Timeform giving him a high rating of 137.
Alas, with so many sons of Nureyev he failed at stud. We are fortunate that Siyouni has become an elite sire and to preserve the Nureyev line while injecting that brilliant speed to his offspring.
I loved that Peintre Celebre was a maternal grandson of the great Alydar… quite a legacy in Europe for the American Hall of Famer.
Nelson, it’s always been a disappointment when the fertile branches of US speed and European stamina ceased their cross pollination. In the 80s and early 90s there were numerous European sires standing in the US at various stud farms while predominantly Northern Dancer and his major sons standing in North America were providing Classic winners and, subsequent sires, in Europe. Not to forget Mill Reef as well.
Then, suddenly, Turf sires were out of fashion in the US so many were banished back to Europe. In time, European buyers in droves stopped attending the major sales in the US preferring the home grown variant of Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector lines to the US product. A mild flirtation with Seattle Slew blood fizzled out in Europe in the late 80s, early 90s as well.
In recent years Coolmore have been introducing Halo blood to add some ‘vigor’ to their Galileo herd along with adding Siyouni speed and more Mr. Prospector blood through sons/daughters of Dubawi. Now they have Justify and to a lesser degree Uncle Mo, possibly Tiz the Law to further add to the pot. I’m hoping Flightline not only becomes an influential sire on dirt but on turf as well. A son of Flightline winning an European Classic or the Arc would do wonders to increase hybrid vigor on all the continents where racing is king. The hybrid vigor is of course used somewhat sarcastically.
Thanks Davids for this very enlightening information.
We tend to overlook what is going on in the breeding arena of Europe, Japan and Australia … after all the Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector lines radiates from here…
As you said, cross pollination is an experiment that generally brings positive results…
Justify is a more distant descendant of Northern Dancer and has been crossed with a considerable number of Galileo mares. That cross has already given us the incomparable City of Troy and five other black type horses.
Coolmore might very well be developing a successful nick with Flightline and Justify in the future…
The Aga Khan has his own unique lines which are less saturated with Northern Dancer blood. You can always spot the Aga Khan’s horses, their phenotype is distinct.
Hopefully, Flightline can work with the Aga Khan’s broodmares. Imagine the Nasrullah line returns from whence it came. Dream, dream.
Infinite thanks to Federico Tesio for giving us Nearco and to the Aga Khan for Mahmoud…!
Also a thank you note to Alfred Vanderbilt for Native Dancer…!
Not to forget Mumtaz Mahal and his other influential band of foundation mares.
Davids, you have mentioned hybrids and outcrosses in your comments.
Both are being widely discussed on other racing and breed forums that I belong to.
It was interesting I think that Coolmore Ireland will be sending several Galieo daughters to Contrail, Kitasan Black and Equinox in Japan.
There was also a video I watched from Coolmore Ireland and the excitement of adding crossbred Wooten-Bassett to the stallion roster.
This comes on the heels of two articles I have read in recent weeks on the hazards of continual inbreeding of Thoroughbreds that was published in Australia and an article on the trend in American Quarter Horses to crossbreds and hybrids.
Kirbarkhan by the way is a crossbred.
There is also an American Thoroughbred Bloodstock agent who is supporting hybrids and crossbreeding.
I think it is safe to say that until American Thoroughbred breeders jump on this, American Thoroughbreds will find themselves coming up short in turf and dirt races.
Davids, correction.
Kirbarkhan is not an outcross.
All good, Lynda. I thought you meant outcross. My iPad is constantly autocorrecting words on my behalf which I don’t mean. Ha ha Wait until AI is really in control of the world.
Yes Lynda, it’s fascinating watching Coolmore manage their band of broodmares. During the 90s the amount of Northern Dancer blood in pedigrees appeared extremely alarming. The Aga Khan even spoke out that there was too much of Northern Dancer in the European bloodlines then.
I’m a little confused when you are describing Wootton Bassett as a crossbred? Wootton Bassett is a thoroughbred. As is Kabirkhan.
Davids, the person who was bring interviewed at Coolmore Ireland referred to WB as a crossbred. I do not knowvwho he was. He was a young man, Irish. It was a preview of the open house coming up for the Coolmore stallions.
It confused me as well. But then I thought he knows more about this than me…I am far from being an expert on anything about horse racing.
I looked up WB’s pedigree and saw that he did not meet the criteria or definition.
He is from different bloodlines however.
Perhaps I misunderstood him…I did listen to it 3 times. The young man had a thick or heavy Irish accent so that is entirely possible.
,
Lynda, I’d say it may have been his Irish brogue or he may have been nervous but Wootton Bassett is definitely not a crossbred. Wootton Bassett crossing with Galileo broodmares is working well at Coolmore some of the progeny are exquisite types.
Davids and Nelson, I have watched replays of Kabirkhan’s races in Russia and Kazakhstan. Talk about bush tracks!
One of his trainers said the biggest worry when racing on these tracks was having to avoid sleeping dogs.
Kabirkhan must think he joined the Heaveny Herd because of the accommodations and track in Meydan.
He owner and his two trainers do think very highly of him as does Doug Watson.
Nelson, there are two horses from Chrome’s crops in Chlle who are also participating in the carnivale but I do not recall their names.
I think Kabirkhan has very interesting pedigree..no pun intended but very “other worldly”. It is vastly different from the broodmare lines Chrome coveted in the United States.
Thanks again Lynda for your updates. I have seen Russian tracks but not any in Kazakhstan. Time to go searching. Dogs on the tracks sounds wild beyond belief.
I once heard that there was an alligator crossing the track during a race at Hialeah…
I heard the same story.
Kahbirkhan was NOT sold to ruZZian interests.
He was sold to Kazah interests in he runs in the colors of Kazakhstan.
Surely you haven’t forgotten Borat
There is nice video of Kabirkhan’s exploits in 2022 and 2023 on youtube in ruZZian.
The track in Kazakhstan’s capital Alma Ata is like Birdsville, Queensland. Bush track!
More interestingly the video show where Kabirkhan was trained and the environment which he was able to develop. He is one tuff hombre!!!
I suspected that from pictures I have seen of Russian Stakes horses… I must assume that the food and the whole atmosphere at Meydan is providing Kabirkhan with an extra incentive to grow stronger and happier…
Kabirkhan story brings credence to the idea that “a champion (a good horse) could come from anywhere” … In South America, I remember many horses that became champions and solid Stake horses despite comming from third and fourth tier race tracks…
That would a very interesting topic to share: Rags to riches and Cinderella stories.
Thanks again for sharing all the details about this sensational son of California Chrome.
Nelson, rags to riches stories would make for some great reading!
My pleasure Davids… In this list, 14 of the 19 horses sold at public auctions were acquired at Keeneland…
I watched Meydan yesterday and was impressed by the performance of Kabirkhan and he resembles California Chrome (in physicality and ability). Lynda got better knowledge about all his performances.
Caifornia Chrome got other good runners in Chile, Argentina and Japan but Kabirkhan is easily the best progeny of the “horse of the People” so far … exciting to see how he fares against elite American and Japanese horses in the World Cup…
Yes, Nelson, Kabirkhan was a ‘spitting image’ of his sire from what I could see from the replay. The real test will be, as you indicated, will be against elite US and Japanese runners.
I think it will be fascinating to see what Chrome’s get from his Japanese breedings do. His pedigree looks like it should bring some diversity to the Sunday Silence/Halo/HTR horses. It actually seems weird to me that he took so long to get over there. In looking at his pedigree and his versatility, I don’t understand why American breeders didn’t support this guy. Is it just because of the fact that there’s a lot of redundancy? Too closely related to the nicer mares, so they don’t get sent to him? Or did the in-fighting and whining about the Belmont field on the part of the ownership actually hurt the horse’s stud career? I know he’s Prospector heavy, but no Fappiano (don’t care how fast, and I loved Unbridled, but keep those scary legs out of my pedigrees). I never understood why the OG, Sunday Silence, got snubbed, and now American Pharoah (who is admittedly probably not heading to Japan, unless the Irish get wild hairs to have a bigger presence there). I don’t know the answers. All I know is Chrome was a sure-enough racehorse in my eyes.
Second crop Chrome babies are actually doing very well in Japan. He is currently number 1 on the 2nd crop sires list.
He is throwing both turf and dirt and successful fillies and colts.
And as Nelson Mann commented way down, his crops in Chile have done well.
A stallion’s immediate ancestors (dam and sire) are held in very high regard in the United States.
Lucky Pulpit, Chrome’s sire raced 22 times, 3 wins, 5 places and 5 shows with $210,000 in earnings. He was a good regional sire however and many of his progeny earned middle to high 6 figures.
Love The Chase had 6 starts and 1 win.
Subsequent breedings back to Lucky Pulpit did not result in a winner. This however is often the case.
LaVille Rouge was bred back to Dynaformer 4 times after Barbaro and of the 4, Margano had the best record, Pennymarydel never raced (as I recall).
Many racing analysts considered the 2014
3 year old crop to have been a weak one, that Chrome really did win against anyone of importance.
The disagreements between Martin and Coburn and some of the comments made by both including Coburn’s behavior after the Belmont that you mentioned certainly did little to endear them to the elites in racing. Intense dislike for the owners resulted in a dislike for Chrome. So much drama does not sit well with some.
Taylor Made is an old and highly respected Thoroughbred sales and marketing firm that stands stallions and has a small broodmare band.
As a sales and marketing agency, TM’s responsibility is a good return on for investors.
Chrome’s first book filled very quickly but the sale price for many of colts and fillies barely covered the stud for many and a number sold for less than the stud fee. That is one reason he was shuttling to Chile.
Low sale prices and few successes on the track meant offering Chrome for sale.
Chrome’s subsequent books did not attract the better mares.
By 2019, TM had added stallions that were much more appealing to breeders including Not This Time.
When fans complained bitterly about the sale, Duncan Taylor posted a rather blistering statement on FB that TM’s first obligation was to the shareholders.
This happens to stallions quite often. If they are not profitable or produce winners off they go.
Most recent one that shocked me was Honor Code.
Hi Nelson
I would add the following homebred colts to your list,
Maycock’s Bay, a Godolphin homebred colt. Steve mentioned he plans to cover him in Week 2.
Wind Rider, a Calumet Farm homebred.
Hibernacle, a Wesley Ward homebred.
Speed Runner, a Whisper Hill Farm homebred.
Thanks Bill for the heads up… I just love Speed Runner’s pedigree… I see him running and shining in the Belmont Stakes if he remains “happy and healthy” til June.
Whisper Hill had Charge It gathering a good deal of excitement two years ago…
Maycock’s Bay could be the one for Godolphin in its journey for another championship year.
You’re welcome, Nelson.
Yes indeed, Speed Runner’s pedigree is impressive. Another Gun Runner colt that has shown promise early on, and his dam side is inundated with class and stamina. If you give credence to the X-Factor large heart gene, Speed Runner could be a carrier of that gene tracking back to Secretariat. His 3rd dam, Passing Mood, was a Reine-de-Course mare, so there’s plenty to like in his breeding.
BTW, it’s not that often you see a 2yr. old colt break his maiden going 9 furlongs, but Speed Runner did just that.
Agreed with your assessment… also his broodmare sire, Gone West, is the sire of Belmont victor Commendable…and also appears in the female family of Belmont champion Essential Quality (sire of damsire Elusive Quality). Passing Mood is the dam of Touch Gold who won an epic Belmont Stakes over Hall of Famer Silver Charm.
Speed Runner worked 8 F in 49 flat this morning at Belmont Park… he is nominated to The Withers and its 1 1/8 mile should suit him very well… but could also take on Allowance rivals next. Let’s see how Pletcher move this brilliant stayer forward…
I’m sure you meant Speed Runner worked 4F in 49 flat. 🙂
When I was young….a man advised me about homebreds getting more patience, and to not wager on homebreds in their debut races for that reason …
That is a great anecdote … thanks for sharing.
Thank you for this list Nelson.
For years I have more or less haphazardly been checking out auction prices and if the colt or filly was a homebred.
In fact it is one of the items on my little checklist.
I do have found that homebreds do have an advantage over auction purchases. Perhaps it is the stability of being raised on the farm they were born on and what MatthewW mentioned about more time and patience given to homebreds.
Bringing young horses in to prep them for the auctions and then being sold to more than one pinhooker can be somewhat traumatizing to a horse. They no more settle into mew home with new routines and new handlers and establish new friends then they are moved again and have to go through another adjustment period.
Thanks Lynda for your post… it makes sense to expect hombebred horses to have better opportunity to develop given all the patience and dedication brought to them.
Nelson, you’ve come up with one of the better statistical angles for picking a Derby winner here. I had no idea homebreds won so frequently, especially considering how dwarfed they are by the sales horses. I may start adding that notation to the horses on my long and short lists for the run-up to the Derby.
It must be all the love, passion and energy they invest to create their own Thoroughbred. Imagine the sea of enthusiasm and hope inundating the minds of Perry Martin and Steve Coburn while deciding California Chrome cross.
This list of homebred prospects includes Fierceness and other nice ones who could go on to be headliners in the near future…
Nelson I used to have lunch with Art Sherman, and he told me they sent him a picture of him at his BIRTH….they told him he was going to win the Kentucky Derby, in that post….Art just rolled up his eyes ….
That is a great anecdote … thanks for sharing.
Art was really enamored of California Chrome afterwards…
*”Stairway to Heaven” by Led Zeppelin
We knew what you meant!
All eyes will be on Gulfstream Park tomorrow with a slew of stakes races to watch but a non-stakes could be even more interesting down the line. Race 2. has a couple of well bred Tapit and Constitution colts, among others, that might show some promise. Counting down the hours here and best of luck for tomorrow.
That is a very deep field. Many potential stars. I’m taking a shot with a Tapwrit colt who went for a high price in the 2 yo sales. Also looking forward to watching Integration in the Turf. Hope he’s as good as I think he is.
Iron Tap at 15-1 I’m playing him! Sold for over 30x Tapwrit’s fee as a two year old …Mott has a full to Tacitus….
Good luck with Iron Tap, this race looks way too short on pedigree but that’s only on paper, you never know. The race is a bit too early in the morning for me so I’ll miss them in the paddock. I’d be interested on your opinion if you see them.
As you wrote, Tacitus’ brother, Batten Down might be a good one.
Matthew any idea why Speak Easy was at such luxurious odds? Batten Down appeared very immature at this stage from what I could see from the race. lol.
Bad luck with the scratch, though. Better luck next time.
It’s the same race that Mage debut in last year so you never know, history sometimes repeats. The 7f, especially at Gulfstream Park, is a tough ask on debut so let’s hope something comes out the race. Iron Tap might be compromised a bit by the post.
Speak Easy and Batten Down have my interest but not the coin. Good luck.
Bad luck about the scratching of Iron Tap but I was surprised about the odds for Speak Easy, I should have placed a bet or two. Ha ha That’s racing.
Yes… In race 2, Gustavo Delgago and Mage’s connections got Victory Avenue (Arrogate-Epic Scataway by Scatt Daddy) debuting … the same (Pegasus) day they did with the Derby victor… he got high gate speed but the field is a strong one … Pletcher’s Speak Easy (Constitution) looks like a good one training at Palm Beach but even the son of Good Magic named Unspoken Request could be a shocker at 30 to 1.
Interesting to see Oisin Murphy (Surprisingly 20/1) and Ryan Moore (Cairo Consort 15/1) piloting for Todd Pletcher in the Pegasus fillies and mares turf… they are adding excitement to the race along with the a group of the best jockeys in America.
I will look for Cyclone Mischief and Signator will boost the exotic payouts in the Fred Hooper.
The Pegasus World Cup Invitational lacks solid Grade 1 horses. Baffert speed (National Treasure) will prove to be too much for the rest specially with Skippylongstocking breaking on the outside.
I am also watching a son of Justify and maternal grandson of Tapit named Just a Touch debuting in the the 2nd race @ Fair Grounds for Brad Cox.
It’s a pity Signator has such a bad draw, I forgot to mention him earlier as I know you are following his progress as well. Yes, good to see Oisin Murphy and Ryan Moore in action as it adds international interest. Thanks for the tip at the Fairgrounds. Should be a fantastic day tomorrow, best of luck.
What did you think, Nelson? Speak Easy was impressive all things considered but the odds surprised most. Pletcher, Ortiz Jr, a Constitution colt with a good pedigree usually means success. Wish I had a flutter now. Ha ha
The way Speak Easy won he looked more than a 4/5 bet …All the money went to Victory Avenue who also ran a great race after not an ideal break. But I could not understand why Tapkena and Batten Down were taking more money than the son of Constitution did.
BTW Victory Avenue finished in 82 1/5 just a bit faster than Mage’s 82 2/5 on debut… I won’t recommend rushing this one against Fierceness. As you also profess, patience is the best advise when it comes to reaching timely (full) potential in racehorses.
I know, I couldn’t understand it either. Especially with Batten Down he was dwarfed by the opposition and looked decidedly immature compared to the other runners. Bill Mott is not Bob Baffert either, if you take my meaning. Odd indeed.
Agreed, Davids — this was a very competitive race and winner Speak Easy was quite impressive drawing away from favored Victory Avenue, who admittedly raced a bit greenly. I was pleased to see Shug’s trainee Corporate Power close from the back to finish fourth, especially after getting shuffled back at the break. It’s getting late for a Derby winner to emerge from an MSW, but certainly a few from this race could be players on the Derby trail.
Yes, Ms Blacktype it was an interesting race in many ways. Arguably, that the inside post for inexperienced runners at Gulfstream is a distinct advantage. Nonetheless, Speak Easy showed a lot of promise and ‘may’ advance further in the race for the roses. As for the others, more distance and obvious experience is needed. Seven furlongs is a tough ask to start off with. Longer distances can actually be an easier task in certain respects.
The 81 4/5 of Speak Easy looks even more telling after Olivia Darling ran 83 seconds in the Grade 2 Inside Information…
Homebred Speak Easy will be in the virtual stable of a lot of people now…!
Irad Ortiz jr has his misgivings but he certainly gives his mounts the confidence to win.
AND he’s a homebred!
Interested to see what Carbone and Otello do because I love their pedigrees, even though the Mighty Mitole was a Spinter. Also would be happy for a Japan-bed horse with Sunday Silence bloodlines to win the Kentucky Derby someday. Very undecided, but hopeful for Derby day.
Super Saver dam sire A P Indy – Seattle Slew
Funny Cide dam sire – Slewacide – Seattle Slew
Exaggerator – dam sire Vindication – Seattle Slew
Merit dam sire Vindication – Seattle Slew. This colt has rather interesting pedigree. His sire Mastry was trained by BB and was champion 2YO who was undefeated in 4 starts. His dam sire Vindication was also trained by BB and was also a Champion 2YO who was undefeated in 4 starts.
His 2nd dam was sired by Secretariat and 3rd dam by Mr. Prospector. If this colt’s dam line is the influence of his talent, he could be a serious KD contender. He did put us on notice with the 10L debut win.
I’ve got a $40.00 win wager on Merit, in KD Futures Pool #3, at 99-1. In addition, I keyed him on top with, 11 longshots underneath in a $2.00 Exacta P/W wager. The payouts would be staggering.
What exactly is a ‘Wow Moment’ in Thoroughbred Racing?
Can a ‘Wow Moment’ be predetermined, or should it be spontaneous?
Very often there is lamenting that no KD prospect has delivered a wow moment. There are also those analysts who state they are waiting on a prospect to deliver wow moments to throw support behind.
From my perspective a wow moment is to a large extent individualistic. What might wow one might not wow another. Further, a wow moment shouldn’t be determined based merely on what is perceived to be a n impressive wide margin victory with a resulting high-speed figure.
The recent wide margin MSW debut winner Hall Of Fame would by regular assessment standards, be viewed as delivering a wow moment. But was it? The colt was advertised as being something special and validated the assessment of its connections. Did he live up to expectations or did he exceed it? If colt performed as expected I do not consider his performance a wow moment, However, if he exceeded expectation, that could be considered a wow moment.
The wow moment for me was the debut performance of Parchment Party. Analysts who are wedded to speed, high Beyers and wide margin victories, wouldn’t be wowed by Parchment Pary’s debut. The internal fractions and final time were modest at best. His margin of victory wasn’t overwhelming in comparison to those recorded in the debut performances of Fierceness, Knightsbridge, Maymun, Hall of Fame, and Merit.
If Parchment Party’s debut performance is viewed purely from the perspective of the analytics. It is unlikely it would rise to the level of a wow moment. But if viewed from the perspective of his foaling date (5th June) and the historic trend associated with 2YO debutants in the USA. It would rise to the level of a wow moment. The policy for 2YO debutantes is to debut short and gradually stretch out.
A June foal making its debut over 8 1/2F is unheard of in the USA. There are not many June foals that pass-through sale rings. They are not appealing sales prospects. As a result, very few emerge from foal crops and very few are seen on the KD Trail. The fact the Parchment Party was purchased for $450K, he must have checked a number of boxes.
I can recall two June foals from memory. The interestingly named Second of June (DOB 2nd June) made a winning debut over 7F. Mucho Macho Man (DOB 15th June) finished 2nd on debut over 6F. Trainer Bill Mott must have realized he had a router on his hands and gave the colt the best opportunity to win with his 8 1/F debut. But it is how the colt won that rises to the level of a wow moment. The description of his debut win in the overview above, speaks for itself.
Another wow moment for me was Sierra Leone. he had a less than ideal start and went 4W at the top of the stretch and won in hand whilst recording a time extremely close to the average 8F split of the KD.
Rich Strike broke his maiden in what I considered to be a wow moment that featured a 17 3/4L victory over 8F geared down. very few would regard his performance as a wow moment because it was record in a maiden claiming race. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 77. It appears he didn’t wow the Equibase folks. He probably didn’t even show up on the sheets. Rarely have I seen such power in the strides of a 2YO. His acceleration from the top of the stretch and gallop out after being geared down suggested I was witnessing a claimer.
I guess wow moments are what we make them.
Excellent post. You, and others, may enjoy reading: “Training Young Horses: The Science behind the Benefits” – Alyssa A. Logan andBrian D. Nielsen
It’s available online just search under the title.
This is a breakdown by month in the last 35 renewals of the Kentucky Derby.
January – 1
February – 10
March – 12
April – 8
May – 4
June 0
(Maximum Security was born in May and Medina Spirit in April).
June foals are run through the November weanling sale at Keeneland. Most are snatched up by pin hookers who turn them out over the winter with other weanlings and bring them in to be handled. In the spring some are brought in with older weanlings who are now all yearlings because of their January 01 birthday and prepped for the spring yearling sales.
Others are run through auction in the fall yearling sales or November coming 2 year old sales.
Not all Thoroughbreds born in the United States are targeted for the Kentucky Derby. Some are purchased as potential bloodstock (replacements for ageing or pensioned broodmares for example). Others of course will trained up to race on turf or steeple chasing or on local or regional smaller tracks (example: there are races held in Aiken, SC, a no betting state.The races are for pure sport). There are some owners who are not interested in running in the Kentucky Derby or the other two TC races. Others are purchased as hunter/jumper prospects or out cross breeding to Quarter Horses (called Appendix), Arabians (Anglo-
Atabs), Morgans and other performance/sport horses such as endurance, cross country, fox hunting. And sadly, many will end up in the slaughter pipeline.
If you look at the progeny report of most any stallion, on average at least half are unraced.
As soon as the BC Juvenile is over some customary questions ensue in everyone’s mind: Is the 2-year-old champion able to defend his title while facing a myriad of new challengers in route to the Triple Crown series? What is different about this one? How do the new rivals appear to be evolving toward top performances in the Classics?
The champion juvenile is normally the winter‐book favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, but the 182 day-lapse has proven to be scrambling time for the division.
The last seven Derby winners did not win Stakes at two. Two had not run as juveniles.
The golden seventies featured six 2-year-old champions winning the Derby with three securing the Triple Crown. All are in the Hall of Fame. Those glorious horses (you know them) gave the perception of the champion juvenile being almost invincible up to their 4-year-old seasons.
However, the seventies were more the exception than a rule. If you go as far back as the 1950-1970 period, you will see that only one (1) champion juvenile was able to win the Derby (Needles). Even the invincible Native Dance was a luckless second in the first leg of the TC.
The issue of soundness is also a factor. Since 1970, 23 2-y-old champions could not make it due to injuries or illnesses.
It took 27 years after Spectacular Bid to see a champion juvenile taking the Roses.
After all, 6 months for a horse are equivalent to 3 human years… unless you were Usain Bolt it is expected that a new champion would emerge the next Olympics.
Even a super horse like Easy Goer would encounter an unassailable rival (Sunday Silence).
Many of you remember the talks about Chief Crown being a budding super star after a scintillating 2-year-old championship campaign. The son of Danzig and maternal grandson of the great Secretariat was in a close battle with Derby champion Spend a Buck for the title. His four Grade 1 wins in 1985 including the Marlboro Cup against some of the best older horses of the year put him as the frontrunner for HoY honors. But a 4th as the odds-on favorite in the Breeder’s Cup Classic behind the 3-year-old Proud Truth gave the edge to Spend a Buck for 3-year-old and HoY titles…
A super 2-year-old named Arazi was not sound in his 3-year-old year. Champion 2-year-old and HoY Favorite Trick ended up being a glorified miler…
The newest 2-year-old champion, Fierceness, looks ready to make his bid at defending his title. The son of City of Light seems to be on track to be the overwhelming favorite in the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth and in the Florida Derby. Will he be able to run much faster or more impressively than his peers? Even so, in a 20-horse field being “bettable” does not mean being unbeatable unless your horse is a super star.
When it comes to racehorses, I would like to think that greatness is not lost but just delayed.
That is why I keep watching a rainbow of gifted young runners in the hope of finding a pot with another Secretariat or Seattle Slew at the end of it.
It might be a fantasy, but the beauty of the rainbow is real.
Nelson, it is interesting that you highlight both Chief’s Crown and Easy Goer in discussing Kentucky Derby history as both won the Swale Stakes, a race that this year could include runners that may use this race as a platform to launch their assault on the Kentucky Derby.
Steve Haskin’s desire for an early sprint to kick off a Derby challenge make come to fruition this year, the ultra promising Born Noble is a possibility for the Swale Stakes.
You are right about the promise of the Swale this year with Born Noble there… BTW I am about to post my ideas around the next races of all of Steve’s ranked horses…
Ari’s Magic, Billal and Bentornato will be pushing the son of Constitution to the fastest 7 furlong …
Nelson, it’ll be interesting to see if Born Noble actually runs in the Swale should he start the confidence must be there.
Nelson there was a study released at the end of 2023 that showed that fewer 2 year olds than ever before are entering the starting gate.
This trend is attributed to the increasing fragility of the current day Thoroughbred in the United Ststes as the result of the intensive line and inbreeding for speed, speed and more speed. This in turn has resulted in smaller field sizes and more downtime between races. In a nutshell, the 2 year olds today simply cannot withstand the rigors of the training methods used today because of their inbreeding.
Recently Oaklawn announced a new requirement that horses given joint injections with a certain number of days will be required to undergo x-rays and ultra sounds before being cleared to race. This does not sit well with many in the industry but I personally think it is a good thing.
I am not picking on Amr Zedan or Bob Baffert when I say this but the purchases of many two year olds at auction is now based on the speed exhibitions before the auctions. Mr Zedan typically makes his purchasing decisions based on these exhibitions. He has spent untold millions on colts and fillies, placed the acquisitions with arguably the best 3 year old dirt trainer in the world with end result of many not making it to the starting gate or dropping off the work tab for long periods of time or coming up short winning graded stakes races.
This is just not the case with Mr Zedan, it is an industry wide trend in the United States.
I always enjoy looking at the photos of the new foals every year. I am however dismayed by more and more foals being born who totally down on their pasterns both front and back and how fine boned their cannons are. Some require braces or surgery to correct these faults.
Regarding Fierceness, I am of the opinion that he has the right stuff to win the Derby. He is an outcross, a breeding trend that is becoming increasingly popular. From the photos I have seen he has good legs and dense cannon bones. I have also looked at photos of his sire and dam and they both have good legs and strong cannons. From what I have seen so far, he has an almost perfect balance between speed and stamina. That I think goes a long way in developing a colt or a filly to have a sustainable career in racing that extends beyond the age of 3.
Another advantage is that he is a homebred and with Repole as his owner he will most probably race past 3.
Only time will tell of course.
I always enjoy reading your posts Nelson. I learn so much from them, especially your grasp on the history of the horses and the sport.
You and Steve compliment each other!
Thanks Lyda… I really appreciate your kind words.
My premise while posting here is to add some information relevant to Steve themes. This post, for instance, tries to support the logic of (usually) placing the champion on top in the first ranking… in turn, the weekly rankings allow pinpointing prospects starting to get rolling pretty well in the lights of Steve’s 50 years of experience assessing racehorse quality…
I am with you about the aptness of Fierceness genetics. Fierceness not only has shown to be faster than his peers but also to have a sizable upside potential…
Talking about homebred prospects, I am posting about their success in the history of the Derby…
Wonderful, on-point post, Nelson. In the last 20 years, three 2YO champions won the Derby: Street Sense, American Pharoah, and Nyquist. In the 1980s and 1990s, NONE did. So perhaps things are looking up for Fierceness.
I love your last line. The beauty of the rainbow IS real.
Yours is the first comment I ever heard that claims Arazi lost The Derby because he was unsound, heretofore his loss was attributed to his lack of stamina, for the ten furlong distance. .
Many in Europe believed that after Arazi underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove chip fractures from the top joint of both knees, after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, that any chance of Arazi winning the Kentucky Derby had been compromised. The operation was extremely controversial at the time, François Boutin (trainer) thought it was an absolute mistake.
Arazi had offset knees which are not noticeable in side view conformation photos.
After the BC Juvi he underwent surgery for bone chips in both front knees.
Recovery took longer than expected and he did not return to training in time to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Bone chips in the knees can be the result of faulty conformation with formation of the chips being sped up as the result of trauma from hard, fast training.
Bone chips are very common in Thoroughbreds.
Hooray for Cody’s Wish! Very happy about Bill Mott and Arcangelo, too.
what a welcome site reading yr take on all these threeyear olds, like a breath of fresh air disgusted with majority of writers we have today, look forward to yr sharp anaylist of everything
Yeah Cody’s Wish
Congratulations Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish!!!
Happy Australia Day Davids!
Thanks Lynda. The Australia Day holiday today is very controversial here now, the indigenous population calling it invasion day. A prominent statue of Captain Cook was toppled and was unceremoniously shoved head first into the parkland. Two of the Australian Football League Clubs came out in support of shifting the date. All of the National Rugby League Football Clubs have supported the indigenous quest to move the date.
Steve, I was at the BC this year and I can tell you Fierceness was truly fit as can be. He came back looking like he had not even run a 1/4 mile let alone a 1 1/16. He is so relaxed and smooth striding. That race took everyone’s breath away except for his own. Not one sign at all post race that he had run so well. All eyes will be watching him in Florida. The race goes through him. I hope he stays healthy. Repole probably hasn’t had a good nights sleep since that race. The worry and expectations must be overwhelming, even for him. It’s early and I’m sure we are going to see some more talent from others but like you said, he is bread to keep running and that race was a drop in the bucket for him.
You said bred, I said bread. Guess what I’m not eating these days and yet it keeps stalking me.
RIders of Rohan, spear shall be shaken, shield be splintered! A sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises! Ride now, ride now, ride to Louisville! Ahhh my liege, you lead us once again on a venture only one king of the horseman could take us on. I would follow you to Mordor if you asked but I am certainly relieved you take us to Louisville instead. Much better accommodations and far less danger and stinch. So glad again to be back in the Haskin stable along with some familiar names. Let the prognosticating begin!!!
Delighted to see a fellow poster on here who is a fan of LOTR as well as racing!
Good to see you again.Welcome back
I saw “The Ring Cycle” again last year, which can not be surpassed, but read the other “Rings” as a teenager which befuddled me a bit. The Derby is more like the latter than the former. Who do you like at this stage?
Davids I have no doubt we will see some impressive races soon, but for now, that effort by Fierceness was unbelievable. Best Juvenile BC effort I have ever witnessed. He came back to the winners circle looking like he had been out jogging. He’s scary good. If he continues to improve and put on good weight, which he must do, we are in for a treat.
Always interesting to see your Derby Dozen, thanks for sharing.
Maycock’s Bay, by Speightstown, out of a Medaglia D’Oro mare, has improved by leaps and bounds over previous starts. After firing a bullet 4 furlongs, in 47.60 (1/26) he finished 1st in a 100K AOC race, going 1 mile and 70 yards in 1:41.14, drawing off by 10 3/4 lengths. He’s a Godolphin homebred colt, bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross that has produced winners of 19 Triple Crown races. The sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector and the broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer.
Judging by his current odds, at Circa Casino, (150-1) he appears to be flying under the radar. Trained by Michael Stidham, this colt is certainly one to watch moving forward.
He’s on the list for next week. Still a bit skeptical about Speightstown at 10f and the dramatic improvement with first time Lasix
Thanks for the reply Steve.
The dam side of his pedigree, it’s full of class and stamina, with the likes of Medaglia D’Oro, Empire Maker. Unbridled and A.P. Indy.
Speightstown should provide the speed, with the stamina coming from the dam side. Maycock’s Bay checks a lot of boxes.
It comes as no surprise that Maycock’s Bay owner/breeder, Godolphin , won the Eclipse Award for the second straight year.
Hi Steve, I know it’s derby season but if you take a break from it, how about doing a piece on Bend Or? I just became aware of the controversy over his dam. It’s from pretty long ago but he’s in 90 percent of pedigrees and was a top horse in Great Britain in the 19th century.
It would also be interesting to know how they decide the head of a sire line. There are parallels with people’s heritages, I believe, and the riddles of a long ago ancestor’s past.
ancestor’s parentage, that is.
Steve I 100% agree with Discopartner the Bob horses have only beaten maidens or sprinting—its a long way off but I’ll call Maymun a real good horse, I think he will get a distance and is one of the ones, in 2024….straight and strong….just wondering about the choppy work pattern but if he comes back in two weeks with a 7-day pattern I’m going to be keeping both eyes on Maymun….
Head on he is arrow straight …lead change so smooth I couldn’t catch it, and the burst, vs a real nice Shirreffs three year old…. probably won’t make the Derby and I hope he doesn’t…but should put up a good battle, at Saratoga…
Bob has zero chance for ’24 Derb.
Something tells me Bob will be at Saratoga, on the first Saturday in June….and the 2024 Belmont might turn out to be the big race of the three—-Late Spring at Saratoga! ALL the good three year olds—This could be the start of something big! (Steve Allen..)…
Are the concerns regarding KD prospects that are deep closers valid?
Like the Apollo curse, the concerns regarding deep closers in the KD merits dismissal. Obviously, that’s my opinion which I will attempt to support, with the full knowledge that I will probably not enjoy a shared perspective.
For those in support of this assertion. Would they be in a position to provide a list of the live KD entrants, whose deep closing running style resulted in their defeat. I contend there is no such list beyond the unfortunate Ice Box and probably the Japanese invader Master Fencer.
How far back does a KD entrant have to be to be considered too far back? There is no established standard number of lengths off pace to fit a classification of too far back. If a KD winner can emerge from anywhere, then a KD entrant can win from anywhere. The history of the KD clearly reflects this fact.
The second fastest time in the KD was recorded in 2001 by Monarchos. At some phase of the race, he was 16L off the pace. Would 16L be considered too far back. If so, it certainly didn’t inhibit him from recording a sub-2-minute winning time.
KD post time KD favorites Street Sense and Orb closed from as far back as 19 1/2L and 18 3/4L respectively to win. They didn’t appear to be inhibited by tiring entrants. Their respective riders just searched for the open lanes and guided them through same.
From 2013 to 2018 the post time favorites emerged the winner of the KD i.e., Orb, California Chrome, American Pharaoh, Always Dreaming and Justify. Orb was the only deep closer amongst the 6 winners. Was there any deep closer that could have won the KDs from 2014 to 2018? In those 5 KDs, the best entrant won with the exception of Always Dreaming who might not have won if Classic Empire was not severely hindered.
The KDs won by Orb and California Chrome featured runner ups that closed from 18 1/4 and 12L of the pace. Neither Golden Soul nor Commanding Curve could have defeated Orb and California Chrome without being the beneficiary of a mishap occurring with both winners.
Deep closing KD winners Mine That Bird, Giacomo and Rich Strike were the best over the 10F challenge on the day. All three found running lanes in the stretch on different parts of the track. I consent that if none of the three were capable of running faster over 10F than their opponent they wouldn’t have emerged as winners.
Neither Orb nor Street Sense had ever closed from either 18 or 19L off the pace in any prior race. But both transitioned to deep closer in their respective KDs. What can be extrapolated from the success of the aforementioned two? Not all deep closers are alike. A grinder devoid of late race acceleration is dependent on the fatigue of others and should be differentiated from a tactical deep closer.
The KD is an equal opportunity 10F challenge. Despite the majority of KD winners emerging from entrants either close to the pace or mid pack. The race doesn’t favor any running style over another. Ther thoroughbred is gifted with the capacity to overcome adversities. If it possesses the requisite talent and a will to win. Its position in a race such as the KD is of little significance.
If there are concerns reading the running styles of Parchment Party and Sierra Leone. Those concerns shouldn’t exist as both are classy and talented enough to win from any position over a distance the two have indicated they will favor.
Any time there’s twenty horses running a straight first quarter mile —there is a possibility of a fast pace….despite the huge field sizes…the best horse usually wins…
Interesting post, Counter Point. Admittedly you discussed deep closes but a number of recent winners (notably the late great Medina Spirit and plenty of others) won on the lead. What should we make of that?
That is where the flow of race comes in.
Remember Winning Colors? She was left alone on the lead, set her own relaxed pace and held off a good horse in Forty Niner.
William Quirin describes it best in his book (see below).
Thats why they always say “Pace makes the race”.
Re: Late runners.
There is a saying by scientists when someone has decided on something “Have you done the experiment?”.
WILLIAM QUIRIN has written many top handicapping books, even though they are decades old the data generated from thousands of races still holds.
There are lots of stats in his book “Winning at the races” including stats from front runners (plus gaps between a front runner and his/her next challengers) then pressers, stalkers and late runners. If you use the brisnet PP’s there is a number right next to the horses name which would show what style of running the horse has (BUT be very careful with those numbers as brisnet does not update them.
There is stats of thousands of races sprints, routes and combination of both. There are win % data for each Quirin Speed figures starting from zero (deep closer) to front runners, the percentages clearly show the difference. In general if a horse is in the second half of the field (say there are 10 runners and the horse is 6th or more behind the leader) thats a closer.
This feels like a year with some really nice colts in the running. Fingers crossed that at least some of them are still around this time next year (I’m getting tired of these blink-and-miss-it careers). Fierceness rewarded my faith in the BC and may well never be that kind of price again.
I don’t think the Baffert horses have done enough to warrant the confidence that’s been expressed, they’ve only sprinted or lost the Juvenile. It’s equal parts not trusting the other contenders to be good enough. The next round of 8.5 f. races will establish a truer pecking order. Is Fierceness a one hit wonder? Can the closers win? Can Dornoch and Track Phantom run faster early splits and hold on, can the sprint winners stretch out? After several years of Derby madness, I’ve decided not to look under rocks for a Derby winner, I think he’s hiding in plain sight and has already raced and won. Most years the winner started as a 2 yo and was a favorite. My cheering interests are Dornoch, Track Phantom and Fierceness. If they don’t do well, I might lose interest. My old theory that horses can race faster than they have before and peak on their own, will get tested this year.
Steve Haskin-
Thanks for putting together the Kentucky Derby Rankings Week 1. So many talented horses. Top trainers. At major race tracks all over. Hope they all stay healthy and put their best running shoes on Derby Day. Thanks for all the info. Enjoyed it very much.
7.5 Furlongs
Steve, I may be wrong but this Derby year appears to have a crop of above average colts. Just reading your initial Derby Rankings was akin to commencing an Agatha Christie novel – everyone is a suspect until proven otherwise. Even the brilliant Baffert colts can be seen as red herrings as they were/are so impressive that they are leading you away from solving the Derby mystery because there appears a ‘snowball’s chance in hell’ of these talented colts leaving Baffert’s barn. Still, you can’t keep your eyes off them: Maymun was magnifique on debut.
Best of luck in grading these colts, Steve. I’m concentrating on half a dozen or so Constitution colts this year, most of which you have mentioned above, plus Honor Marie and Fierceness the rest I will rely on your expert eye to sift the wheat from the chaff. How many good colts are there?
Looking forward, Saturday May 4 could be one of the great days of world horse racing if City of Troy performs as expected in the 2,000 Guineas and one of the glamor colts romps in the Kentucky Derby. Something to look forward to and beyond.
Thanks again, Steve, for your astute reading of the Derby hopefuls progression toward the first Saturday in May. Blissful reading for another 3 months or so for everyone who enjoys the sport of kings.
Steve just skips along switching leads every half furlong, with his blue blinkers cut back he has a clear vision to the 150th Derby.
So pleased to see you are still around. I was going to ask the guys in “Unlucking Winners” if you still posted there. Is there a colt you are really high on at this stage?
Any thoughts on undefeated Carbone(Mitole), scheduled to run in the Southeest Stakes and Time for Truth(Omaha Beach) MSW winner 1st out…BTW, if Nysos or Maymon transfer before Jan 29 its very bad news for everyone else, I agree…
Carbones races are not fast enough.
He bear Gold Brick, who next out won MSW in 139.07
I don’t know that for sure…he went 109 for 6 furlongs pretty easily on debut and stretched out nicely and geared down going 2 turns 1st time…he’s pretty brilliant…is he Nysos or Maymon or Fierceness fast I dunno..his daddy was really fast champion
I have been doing speed figures for a long time and I do well.
Carbones races (both of them ) are not just fast enough, he drew away under steady handling, but not geared down. There is a whole lot of difference between the two.
Asmussen seems to be pretty excited about him and he’s done pretty well
Don’t we hear the same from trainers all the time?
I never place much in figs/numbers. No be all.
Btw, welcome back and thank you for your great work on DerbyDozen…been looking forward to the start of this years edition for a month and it is a highlight of my week now through April…
Thank you very much Doug
Same here. Always a highlight. Steve is the best
Corporate Power has gotten tons of buzz for Shug and debuting Saturday. Doubt he is derby type debuting this late, but he’s thought of as highly as the other two Adam horses
Hi Steve,
nice list.
I see you have Maymun after his 1st race last Saturday, Yes he was very impressive and bears to keep an eye on.
However Hall of Fame ran equally well last Saturday, surprised that I don’t see him on your watch list.
IMHO Nysos should be in the top 5 at least, as we speak, at this moment I would give him the nod over Fierceness.
Just a note:
Both Maymun and Holl of Fame got a 94 Beyer.
Hall of Fame is on my watch list and I did write about him. I explained why the Baffert horses were not ranked. It was a decision I made and gave my explanation.
I was told by someone very close to Maymum he got a 97 and it was rasied to a 102, but apparently that was incorrect and they actually lowered it. THat has been changed to a 94.
Thanks on Hall of Fame.
One of the reasons that many don’t trust those figures.
I will be writing about him in more detail next week
Nice opening list of potential Derby Starters, Steve. My only Gripe about Fierceness is he ran to good to believe. Locked ran his same race. The only true horses that could match their talent are the Two Baffert’s, NYSOS and MAYMUN, but alas they will not be able to run until the Preakness. Maybe some one else will start running great.
Any news on Prince of Monaco? no published works and I liked his style of running. I think he was hurt in the Juvenile as he should have run better then he showed, not win but run better.
Because of the uncertain future of his 3 year olds Bob doesnt like discussing them so I leave him alone.
That’s an interesting argument, Eric. That’s what worries me as well about Fierceness, has he already run his best race.
Hi Steve, Glad to see Liberal Arts fire a bullet today in preparation for his next start on FEB 3 in the SW at OP. He worked 4F In 47 flat, 2/49 at the distance. LA is sitting on go and should be ready to fire a big shot in the SW. Glad to get LA at 46-1 in KDFW3 and boxed with the field. With Carbone and Otto The Conqueror going in the SW, there will be plenty of pace for LA to run into.
Good morning! Steve looking ahead to Race 13 Pegasus, I lean heavily towards First Mission. Do any Thorograph patterns jump out to you as someone to play with him? Also, watching lots of Saturday replays, in the Riley Allison Derby at Sunland #2 Alotaluck raced a ton in my opinion to finish second. I’ll be VERY interested to see him in the Sunland Derby Feb.18. I know it’s not a premier race, but I always watch it. Thanks Steve for ALL your informative comments!
Great to hear about Honor Marie having Crimson Saint on both sides, via her daughter Terlingua, a filly I saw she was a beautiful red chestnut, trained by young Wayne Lukas, and I saw her mama Crimson Saint, a chestnut who had the best turn of foot I ever had seen, until I saw Chinook Pass, they were both incredibly fast—I heard Crimson Saint lived a very long life, and was very much loved and respected….she came to Hollywood Park as a three year old and beat older male sprinters by five lengths, THAT kind of fast….
Thank you very much for this wonderful write up…it’s ludicrous that Churchill banned baffert another year. I’m wondering if the sprite is to put a nail in California racing, which is struggling. The last two derby winners, god bless them, won in my opinion due to no baffert horses participating. Churchill has cheapened their product and probably interest from fans on west coast. That’s not a good business model in the long run.
Excellent points, Jeff. I understand even Santa Anita will be slashing purses for the summer meet, and someone posted on a previous columns that the track had 400 empty stalls.
I like Track Phantom, he’s already professional, broke quickly, changed leads on a dime, and has a great physique. Joel Rosario is the right jockey for him, he can try rating him next time. You can’t get any more modern day classic than Quality Road over Into Mischief, who go back to Mr. P. and Northern Dancer.
Steve & company ….I obviously the timing of Bob’s cancelling his appeal has to do with the Jan 29th deadline….he hopes to not have to send his horses to other barns. …will Churchill acquiesce? Or …would the 150th Kentucky Derby being won by Bob be something they do not want–or intend to see happen?…
Matthew W, it was Mr Baffert’s and Mr Zedan’s lawsuit.
Will be interesting to see if CDI now removes the deadline on the 29th and perhaps goes a step further and removes the sanctions against Baffert for participating in the Kentucky Derby for 2024.
I think both sides had their heels dug in for way too long. One or the other had to finally give.
It would be in the best interest of the sport if CDI backed down, just not convinced at this point CDI cares about the sport.
Many who have followed the KD for years are calling for a boycott of the Derby this year as response to CDI’s heavy hand in all this.
Maximum Security has, according to reports this morning, been disqualified from his World Cup win and the late Midnight Bourbon declared the winner.
Lynda the very much alive Midnight Bisou is the winner! The late Midnight Bourbon gets second money, I believe….
Alas, CDI has stated Bob will be persona non gratta, for the 150th Derby….
Thank you Matthew. Got my Midnight’s mixed up.
Maximum Security will always be special to me. It pains me that his legacy is tarnished because of Jason Servis, his unscrupulous trainer. Max gave me the thrill of winning the Derby, albeit just for a brief moment. Viva Max!
Steve, you have lit the flame to the happiest four months in racing. I’m off to the Australian Open (tennis) today so have only had time to glance over your work so far. Nevertheless, have to mention that we have the same opinion of Gettysburg Address. He looks the type that 9 -10f is a gift who is on a slow burn until April/May. Let’s hope so.
Finally back home from the tennis, Novak Djokovic was masterful again can’t see him not winning the final. It’s almost 10 pm and the temperature is hovering around 83f – restless night for sure.
Having been thinking about Steve’s Derby rankings all day, a knight cap and more Haskin knowledge. Perfect.
Steve,
I’m elated that you’re back and better than ever. Please understand that you have readers well beyond the posters here.
You are reveled and admired in the racing community more than you’ll ever know.
Look forward to the next several weeks of informative writing.
With love and admiration, Mr. K
Thats very kind of you to say, Mr. K. I really appreciate it I’m not sure about the racing community, basically horsemen, but this is geared more toward the racing fan and I hope they enjoy it and it gives them something to look forward to each week.
It definitely does!
Steve we’re on the same page with Conquest Warrior, he really did remind me of Forego—-I also rely on the head-on view— Maymun was incredible, straight as an arrow……in recent times I identified West Coast, from his head-on stretch run in a three horse maiden field—I call that “economy of motion”…..Bob is loaded this year, Muth is his logical Derby horse, the other two might be his best and the country’s best—so we watch….and we wait . meantime I’m bullish on Locked….and Honor Marie…..as possible upsetters…..and Fierceness looks special— all in all I think this is a very good crop, I have not been excited by this many three year olds since…..since…..hmmm…..
Honor Marie loves Churchill Downs, his come home time in his recent was tremendous, and galloped out by a half furlong …
Honor Marie looks for real
I know it’s too early but I agree with you Matthew, this crop does appear to have a high percentage of ‘superstar’ potential. Much more than the usual crop percentage. Who’s your favorite colt?
I used to look forward to the Experimental Handicap coming out. I like this better! Thanks Steve!!!!!!!!!
“Oh Happy Day”, the Derby Rankings for 2024 have launched and Steve, I must say, you have done your usual splendid job in putting up a great list of Derby candidates for us to peruse. Then again, we’ve come to expect that from you time after time. Thank you, Steve, your rankings make my day.
My Derby Dozen had 8 of your rankings with 3 others in the Knocking on the Door section. I’ve been reading you for so long that we’re beginning to think alike, lol. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the Japanese horse, Forever Young. One of these years a horse from Japan will wear the roses, and the unbeaten Forever Young intrigues me as being a strong candidate to ship over to Churchill to give it a try.
I appreciate it, Dewey, thank you
Dewey, that’s funny reading “we’re beginning to think alike” with reference to Steve’s thought patterns on assessing Derby contenders because I often think exactly the same. lol. Sometimes, you wonder about telepathy. Ha ha
Hi Steve! Estatic to see your Rankings return. Early on{fall} I had some mild interest in McPeeks Northern Flame.
His last work was Dec. 23 and last raced Dec. 31 at Oaklawn. Nothing since. I JUST noticed he’s entered at Oaklawn Sunday the 28th. Can you ask Kenny for me what his future holds? Keep up the good work! JB
I will John, but he really hasnt been running well. Last who were bad.
I’ve been looking forward to this column! Some of these horses I’m not too familiar with, but your first 6 are in line with what I’m thinking right now. I love Fierceness so far. Last year with the same connections, I wanted to like Forte but I kept having misgivings about him. It turned out, at least in my mind, that some of them were valid. Hopefully Fierceness is not a repeat of that. Love Dornoch and Locked. I’ll be eagerly awaiting each week’s column, because you’re the one who provides me with invaluable insight on the Derby every year.
Thanks for letting me know. I’m sure Dewey appreciates it, too. FYI, the drf is reporting Maymun’s Beyer for Saturday’s win as a 94. Maybe that 102 is a Brisnet number? (The way he won I thought 94 was too low!)
I was told they changed it to 102. That could have been false info but either number is still fast
You da man with the inside dope!
It’s refreshing to see your Derby Dozen back Steve. I’m glad you have Liberal Arts at #13. He is on target to run in the SW in a couple of weeks. This beautiful son of Arrogate has improved as the distances have increased. I was glad to bet him at 46-1 in KDFW2 and boxed him with the field. I bet Ari’s Magic, the talented son of Good Magic at 74-1 in KDFW3 and boxed him with the field and with Liberal Arts. AM is targeting the Sam Davis where he will be tested by Locked. What’s your impression of Ari’s Magic Steve? He is only a maiden winner but he looks like he could be a good one. I love the Euro connection of C.Clemente as trainer and O.Murphy as the jockey. AM has time to get in 3 derby preps and grab valuable derby points.
I am menitoning him next week but he would have gotten lost the first week
Always great stuff Steve.
Being an anti Pletcher wagering guy when it comes the Derby from a wagering standpoint I like the list.
Fierceness As you mentioned ran a – TG # history says that a horse that runs a – # at two years old never gets back to that number in time for the Derby.
Time will tell.
Good luck
John
Witth numbers like that he better be a superhorse to keep improving or even stay at that level
I find it interesting he is gonna run in the Holy Bull.
Not a normal Pletcher move.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing an excellent analysis on this year’s crop of 3yr. olds as they move forward on the Derby trail.
The time and effort you go through to provide your followers with “Kentucky Derby Rankings” week after week is much appreciated. On my top 15 contenders list, dated 1-20, I have 8 out your top 15, and the rest are mentioned in your KOTD segment.
Regarding KD Futures Pool #3, I couldn’t resist placing $40.00 win wagers on the following longshots,
Snead, 69-1
Merit, 99-1
Real Men Violin, 99-1
Resilience, 93-1
Tuscan Sky, 88-1
Otto the Conqueror, 91-1
Imperial Gun, 80-1
Otello, 59-1
El Capi,33-1
Please note those odds were the closing odds in Pool #3.
I forgot to add Otello lightly raced but boy the upside is huge. he is one to watch.
Great work, Steve. I don’t know how you find the enthusiasm this far out.
I am intrigued by Carbone. Is he a sprinter/miler or can he get longer? His breeding says he could go eaither way. Guess we’ll find out.
The name Carbone makes me think of Goodfellas. Frankie Carbone was the character they found in the freezer. Wonder if he was named after the character. Probably not.
I hope not. Lol
I just saw that Carbone is a “probable” for the Southwest Stakes on 2/3. With Just Steel and Otto the Conqueror also probable, there should be some pace. Setting up to be an interesting race for sure.
Carbone was named after a type of charcoal the owners and breeders use alot in Texas…the lady owner/breeder named him that cuz he is almost black in color
Always look forward to the rankings ever year.
I really like Dornach and think this colt will have another gear as he matures not to mention sheds some greeness. Although i am totally against the fairgrounds route and will wait to see if Steve moves him to OAKLAWN, I love Quality Road and i think Track PHANTOM is the real deal. I will have to back off if he stays the term at FG though. I do wish Muth would move but not to TIM. I think Muth really has so much seasoning and versatility and he will only get better as well with age but sadly I am sure we wont get to see him have the chance. Fierceness , is a really nice colt but i want to still see first race before i jump all in.
Thanks as always Steve
Always look forward to the rankings ever year.
I really like Dornach and think this colt will have another gear as he matures not to mention sheds some greeness. Although i am totally against the fairgrounds route and will wait to see if Steve moves him to OAKLAWN, I love Quality Road and i think Track PHANTOM is the real deal. I will have to back off if he stays the term at FG though. I do wish Muth would move but not to TIM. I think Muth really has so much seasoning and versatility and he will only get better as well with age but sadly I am sure we wont get to see him have the chance. Fierceness , is a really nice colt but i want to still see first race before i jump all in.
Thanks as always Steve for getting us all excited once again.
Track Phantom may be too low. I’m just trying to figure out if he can rate off the pace. Thy really sent him, but they likely felt they had to to run with Nash
Steve: Your long-anticipated first rankings hit it out of the park! Anyone who follows the 3YOs can come up with a list, but you are the only one who so skillfully explains the WHY of your rankings. In one place or another, you covered all the horses on my personal list except The Wine Steward, who I recently learned hasn’t worked since finishing second in the Breeders Futurity. Any news about him?
Thank you, and I can’t wait to see how this year’s trail unfolds.
I havent heard anythhing, thats why I’m holding off until I do. Its been too long
Thanks for letting me know. I’m sure Dewey appreciates it, too.
Indeed I do. The fact that The Wine Steward has not worked in 3 mos. is most concerning and does not give positive vibes.
Steve, I wish you would at least glance at Mike Repole’s NOTED, trained byTAP, who was severely compromised in the BC Juv by the widest post. (And came back to win next out.) He is a stakes winner, has won short and long, has won turf and dirt, with a current record of 6-3-2-0. If Repole’s other horses flop, this is the guy who is capable of stepping up. Plus he’s sired by Cairo Prince who’s turning out to be a credible sire. One to watch, I think.
You are assuming I havent glanced at him. As I wrote I couldnt mention everyone and please wait until next week if you didnt s your horse mentioned. I have watched Noted many times and I want to give him and several others proper space. Can’t dilute Repole’s horses. Lol
Hi Steve, Awesome article per usual. I don’t usually think to pay attention to gallop outs, but noticed a MSW winner at Oaklawn a couple of weeks ago named Common Defense (I think he won the same day as Conquest Warrior and their both out of the Courtly Dee line). Anyway, it was one of those short stretch mile races at Oaklawn, and it seemed to me that McPeek had him run to the normal finish line as the horse seemed to be going faster past the line and was way out in front on the gallop out.
Also, you mentioned one of your contenders (Resilience I think) who is inbred only to Halo. I’m just wondering if it’s a bad sign for a horse to be inbred multiple times (like Common Defense is)
Thanks so much for all of your articles! I’ve looked forward to them every year for a number of years now and the Derby Trail would be greatly diminished without your insights!
I will touch base with Kenny on Common Defense. He looks more like a grinder, but was very stong in the stretch, and, yes, his gallop-out was really strong
Sounds good Steve. Thanks for the response!
Spring is in the air! I am looking forward to the rescheduled Southwest Stakes on February 3rd, where Otto the Conqueror and Just Steel should set a good pace. I expect Liberal Arts to be favored, but my money will be on two sleepers who might just crack Steve’s list in due time… Lightline (pretty cocky name, but another City of Light colt) and Magic Grant. Magic Grant was flying at the end of the Springboard mile and looked very professional, and was a longshot maiden winner coming from way off the pace.
Steve,
I had the chills when I saw this column posted. New year, new class of three year olds. I was impressed by Hall of Fame’s race, so I’ll be following him closely this season.
It’s Christmas! Thanks Steve we look forward to this every year ! You’re the best !