Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 10
We have finally crossed the long-awaited threshold into the 100-point races and even with the Jeff Ruby Steaks having little or no impact on the Kentucky Derby with the winner heading elsewhere, we were treated by several excellent performances in the Louisiana Derby, and on a fast track. So let’s hope for races this formful and exciting in the next two weeks. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 25, 2024 – Week 10
By Steve Haskin
1—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
The problem with him being No. 1 with such a limited resume and only a narrow group 2 victory in the slop is what do you do with him until he runs in two weeks? The Louisiana Derby winner is a terrific horse, but not terrific enough to knock him off the top spot. Would you dare rank the Florida Derby or Arkansas Derby winner, especially Fierceness, Timblerlake, or Mystik Dan, No. 1 and then be in the odd position of having to put him back there one week later with an impressive score in the Blue Grass Stakes? Could we even consider Forever Young is he wins the UAE Derby impressively? We have not been in that position this year because no one has stepped up who was worthy of being No. 1. We sure hope that is going to change. We have discussed Sierra Leone’s many strengths and had those close to him comment about what he was like in his pre-2.3 million dollar sale days. He is still such an unfinished product who is not the smoothest striding horse, but he has managed to establish himself as the Derby favorite with his explosive acceleration and dramatic stretch runs. It’s not easy to displace a horse from the top spot after being there for five weeks and then put him right back, so we’ll have to see how this all plays out in the next few weeks and hope we get to see him on a fast track. Only then can we claim to have a true No. 1 horse.
2—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
Next week’s Arkansas Derby, for which he drew post 2, looks pretty clear-cut on paper with the Rebel winner squaring off against the brilliant Southwest winner Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby, along with Muth, the first big Baffert bombshell to possibly affect the Derby trail, and Liberal Arts the main upset possibility. Baffert decided to send Muth to Oaklawn after a sharp six-furlong work, according to DRF. We have already shown through his Thoro-Graph numbers that Timberlake is the most consistently fast 3-year-old on the Derby trail and his pattern is indicative of a horse who is heading for a peak performance on the first Saturday in May. But first he has to get by Mystik Dan, whose “1/4” Thoro-Graph number in the Southwest Stakes has blown everyone out of the water, and it must be pointed out that the horses who finished first and second to Timberkake in the Rebel both finished out of the money on Saturday. A victory by Muth would only drive the stock of both colts down, making the Oaklawn path to the Derby look far less important than it was perceived to be. Oaklawn is notorious for serving up Saturday slop, so let’s hope we can get both these colts, who have run their career-best race in the slop, to show what they are capable on a fast track against an invader who certainly would have been one of the Kentucky Derby favorites had he not been sent into exile along with his trainer. As for Timberlake, as good as he ran in the Champagne and the Rebel he did finish almost three lengths behind Muth in the Breeders’ Cup, so this should tell us how much he has improved since then.
3—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
You can describe him as a complex superstar or a flawed champion or whatever comes to mind. Some disgruntled and disillusioned fans even consider him a plain old sucker horse, as harsh as that may sound? We have seen Dr. Jekyll twice and Mr. Hyde twice and now it is time for Fierceness to show his true face in the Florida Derby. But because of the sporadic nature of his brief career he will have to show it again on May 4 before the doubters become believers. In the meantime, the Florida Derby is the race that will at least give his faithful followers reason to be optimistic going into the Kentucky Derby. By then it is hoped that Todd Pletcher has him figured out and able to bring the brilliant colt we saw twice last year to the surface for good. Whether that’s possible or not we should have a decent idea after Saturday. But he will have to overcome post 10 by breaking sharply and not lose too much ground. Fierceness has been doing a great job during his mini-vacation convincing people he has mended his ways by manhandling several of Pletcher’s top stars in workouts, including a recent bullet half-mile work in :47 2/5, out in 1:00 3/5 in company with Be You. Whether or not those works were a hint of things to come, who knows for certain, but they have at least kept the flame of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile still burning after nearly being snuffed out in the Holy Bull. The Florida Derby does not look like a tough field in terms of depth, and he would be expected to turn the tables on Hades following their oddly run previous encounter and defeat a promising, but still unproven Conquest Warrior, so now it is all up to him.
4—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
As mentioned earlier, the Arkansas Derby has come down to the fastest 3-year-old in the country against the most consistently fast 3-year-old in the country. Both, however, will have to contend with the talented Muth, and if one of them should knock off the Baffert-trained colt it surely would boost his status even higher and make him a worthy No. 1, depending what Sierra Leone does the following week. The big question with Mystik Dan is whether he can duplicate or come close to, or even improve upon, his “1/4” Thoro-Graph number and triple-digit Beyer and Brisnet figures in the Southwest Stakes. As we have mentioned, his two career victories have come in romps going 5 ½ furlongs on a fast track and 1 1/16 miles on a sloppy racetrack. Some have doubts about a son of Goldencents staying a mile and a quarter, but there is plenty of stamina in his female family, and the way he was striding out down the stretch in the Southwest Stakes was as visually impressive as anything we have seen this year, which accounted for his lofty 112 Brisnet late pace figure. McPeek has always been a wiz at picking out good horses at the sale at bargain prices. Here he has an opportunity to make a big splash in the Derby with a colt that was foaled at his Magdalena Farm in Kentucky and saddle broke and trained at his Silverleaf Training Center in Florida. McPeek had trained the colt’s mother and recommended Goldencents as a stallion her owners should breed her to.
5—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
If you want to see Catching Freedom’s journey on the Derby trail in the proverbial nutshell, I will share with you several texts from racing manager and part owner Jason Loutsch starting back on January 18. They read as follows: “Still a little green, but lots of room for improvement…Still green, room to improve. Excited!!…Still learning, which is exciting to me; there is more in the tank…Hope he figures it out, still learning,” And finally on March 18: “We’re excited. He’s been working really well. Just finish strong and get to Kentucky.” After some five months of “still learning” it is safe to say mission accomplished. OK, so he still didn’t change leads again until just outside the eighth pole in the Louisiana Derby, but at least he did and all in all he was much more professional than in his past races, thanks in good part to new rider Flavien Prat, who kept him out of harm’s way and basically clear of other horses, eventually taking him way out to the middle of the track at the top of the stretch. From out there he was able to barrel down the stretch in isolated splendor and mow down the field in the final furlong. Some of the analysts were quick to point out immediately after the race how slow the time was in comparison to the few other Louisiana Derbys run at 1 3/16 miles. But you have to give credit to the winner and runner-up for closing as fast as they did after leisurely fractions of :48 1/5 and 1:12 2/5 that should have favored Track Phantom and those right behind him. Catching Freedom came home his final three-sixteenths in about :18 flat and you won’t find many Preakness winners who have come home faster than that, if any.
6—Deterministic (Christophe Clement, Liam’s Map – Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown)
He returned to the work tab with a easy five-furlong drill in 1:03 3/5 at Payson Park and is scheduled to return to New York and have his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial, where he could face Gotham runner-up Just a Touch again, as well as Tuscan Sky, Resilience, Be You, Uncle Heavy, El Grande O, and Capital Idea, all talented horses looking to get in the Kentucky Derby with a big performance. It is not easy winning the Derby off only three lifetime starts, but it is becoming more common and he will be one of three horses in the Wood attempting it. Of the three horses who accomplished the feat, Justify and Mage did it having run all three of their races at 3 and Big Brown having a pair of two-turn races and a one-mile race. Deterministic will attempt it having a seven-month layoff between his career debut at 2 at seven furlongs and the one-mile Gotham, so he will have only two races in nine months going into the Derby and will be the only one of the three victorious horses to win the Derby off only a single two-turn race. Even with those obstacles I still consider him a very serious Derby horse for one main reason. He has already shown he can accomplish things he shouldn’t be able to and has a great mind, a cat-like quickness, and the ability to overcome anything thrown at him. In the long run It’s all about whether the speed or the stamina in his pedigree wins out.
7—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
He came out of the Louisiana Derby in excellent shape, cooled out quickly, ate up his dinner, and had good energy Sunday morning, according to Beckman. Of all the horses in the Louisiana Derby he was the one I really wanted to just get in the Kentucky Derby, mainly because he was the one who has the most room for improvement considering he came into this race with only one throw-out performance in the slop this year and that was off a three-month layoff. So he got exactly what he needed and now is in a good position to peak at Churchill Downs, where he captured the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. In his three starts last year he progressed beautifully, running Thoro-Graph numbers of “11,” “7,” and “5 ½.” Now that he has gotten rid of the bad taste from the Risen Star Stakes, and we know for certain now it was the wet sticky slop that did him in, I’m sure he will build off that excellent number in the Kentucky Jockey Club. And credit Irish-born jockey Ben Curtis, a rider most people in this country never heard of, for giving the colt a terrific ride, and credit the horse for getting along so well with a new, unproven jockey, who has ridden his share of good horses in England and will ride him back in the Kentucky Derby. In short, here was a Grade 2 stakes winner at Churchill Downs whose 3-year-old campaign seemed in disarray because of a disappointing effort in the slop and needing to find a new rider who is now going into the Derby off a huge performance and has to be considered a serious contender. Imagine if he knocks off Sierra Leone and Fierceness, who are trained by Beckman’s old bosses. Or imagine an Irish-born rider beating Coolmore in the Kentucky Derby. I think that may have just gotten the Derby gods stirring.
8—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
Beware there is a strange segment to this comment. He certainly should be sharp for his stakes debut in Saturday’s Florida Derby after working a half in :48 2/5 over the deep Payson Park track in company with the promising last-out maiden winner Corporate Power. OK, so why has he been ranked so high from week one off a narrow maiden victory and even 10 weeks later off an allowance victory over a questionable field? I have given my overall feeling a number of times since January about what I like about him, especially his magnificent presence and his rare quickness, agility and turn of foot for such a big horse. But in the end there is another reason that is so simplistic I have to turn to my favorite musical, Man of La Mancha, and share these whimsical lyrics about Sancho Panza’s devotion to Don Quixote to explain it: “Don’t ask me for why or wherefore, ‘Cause I don’t have a single good “Because” or “therefore!” You can barbecue my nose, Make a giblet of my toes, Make me freeze, make me fry, Make me sigh, make me cry. Still I’ll yell to the sky, though I can’t tell you why, That I…like…him!” Sorry all you analysts and handicappers out there, but with all these horses who hardly ever race I have to break up the often repetitive comments at times with a little levity, and that’s basically all there is to it. I simply like him. The Florida Derby will tell where that “like” goes from there. Could it be love?
9—Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit)
His name has been floating around as a possible starter everywhere including the Santa Anita Derby. But right now, using a process of elimination, Cox has Timberlake in the Arkansas Derby and Encino in the Blue Grass Stakes, so the Wood Memorial, and a rematch with Deterministic, seems to be the most logical spot, but the Blue Grass is still a viable option. Wherever he goes I expect to see a huge improvement from the Gotham, especially if it’s on a fast track, something he has never run on. He turned in a sharp five-furlong work in :59 4/5 at Keeneland so he might just wind up staying home. As we have mentioned, his Thoro-Graph numbers to begin his career are extremely encouraging. You don’t often see a horse run a “2 ½” in his career debut, and the fact that he went right into a Grade 2 stakes stretching out to a mile and was able to pair up that 2 ½ indicates this is a horse with a very high ceiling. He also paired up his Brisnet figures with a lofty 97 in both races. He is a big muscular long-striding colt who should appreciate the two turns and, as we said, a fast track he can get hold of. When he was given his early training with David Scanlon, he worked fast, but he was so big and strong Scanlon thought maybe he worked too fast. And remember, he is a May 5 foal, so he won’t turn 3 until the day before Derby and still has so much scope for improvement. I’m still old fashioned in that I would prefer a horse with more than three lifetime starts going into the Derby, but times have changed and after seeing what his sire and Mage did, and what he, Deterministic, and Tuscan Gold have done this year I no longer dismiss a horse with so little experience and racing foundation.
10—Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
I am moving him closer to midpack now so I don’t have to make any dramatic moves in either direction after the UAE Derby. A victory likely will skyrocket him up near the top of most rankings, a second-place finish would lower him significantly, and worse than that would eliminate him altogether. There is no doubt he looks to be the class of the race, even with an up-and-coming American horse in there, a pair from Aidan O’Brien, a few less accomplished country mates, and the UAE 2,000 Guineas winner. And of course you have your South American “4-year-olds.” Don’t knock him for beating Book ‘em Danno in the Saudi Derby. That is a fast and improving colt who is very formidable around one turn. If he does win, his fans will pile on fast, but you can be sure the question will be brought up whether he can hold up to the grind of traveling from Japan to Saudi Arabia, have a tough race, then travel to Dubai for a 1 3/16-mile race against brand new faces, and finally fly to Kentucky and be ready to fire his best shot going 1 ¼ miles in a 20-horse field. I still can’t ignore all the positives I saw in the Saudi Derby and all he had to overcome, and I can’t ignore that “1” Thoro-Graph number and him being undefeated in two countries. So all signs point to him being a major contender, and we can start setting off the fireworks if he wins the UAE Derby impressively.
11—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
We saw Catching Freedom dispose of most of his shortcomings in the Louisiana Derby and show what he is capable of. And now it is his turn to put it all together and show us the real Dornoch, if indeed there is a more polished version of the one we have seen. To his credit he has managed to win three consecutive races, including a gutsy score over Sierra Leone, and basically did what he had to in the depleted Fountain of Youth Stakes. But like Catching Freedom he has had to work some of the kinks out and become more professional, and we will see if he has succeeded in the Blue Grass Stakes. He still has to break out of the “6” and “6 ½” Thoro-Graph rut he’s been in his last three starts. When you hit that three-race cycle of maintaining the same so-so number it is time to make that big jump forward or you will be defined by that number. Although the Blue Grass is still two weeks away, as of now he looks to be the only speed in the race, and regardless of what you think of him, he is always dangerous once he gets a lead because he is difficult to pass. And as Sierra Leone found out in the Remsen, even passing him does not guarantee victory.
12—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)
He gets an advantage over Fierceness in the Florida Derby drawing post 2, while Fierceness breaks from post 10, which is never ideal at Gulfstream, and will have to break sharply and be used to get position going into the first turn. There will also be some speed in between with a few newcomers who either have shown speed or are coming off sprints. With Thoro-Graph numbers of “13,” “7 ¼,” and “6,” he is improving, but still nowhere near what Fierceness is capable of. We just don’t know where Fierceness is right now and whether he can return to his 2-year-old form. The bottom line is Hades has already beaten several top-class stakes horses, and he has shown how tough he is when he’s looked in the eye, so it is going to take a big effort to beat him. It’s all about which Fierceness shows up and how good Conquest Warrior is. Orseno, who was once one of the elite trainers after hooking up with Frank Stronach, has waited a long time to get back on the big stage, and he has loved this colt from the time he first saw him and bought him at the sale. Remember, he once passed up the Kentucky Derby with Stronach’s Red Bullet after winning the Gotham and finishing second to Fusaichi Pegasus in the Wood Memorial. Instead of rushing him back in the Derby he sat patiently and let Fusaichi Pegasus win the Derby and then beat him with a rested Red Bullet in the Preakness. Will he now go into the Kentucky Derby 24 years later with an undefeated horse?
13—Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter)
It was first reported in DRF that Brown is now having second thoughts about running him again before the Derby because he feels the colt has enough of a foundation and he has had success running horses off layoffs of around 60 days. It may turn out to be the right decision, but is indicative of today’s thinking, especially on the Derby trail. He is already in the field and he is coming off a victory, so why risk having him run a flat race and create doubts going into the Derby. He does have the foundation having already run twice at 1 1/8 miles and running two strong races in major stakes at 1 1/16 miles. But by making this decision, Brown will have to ignore the horse’s sheets numbers. Normally when a trainer makes this kind of decision, as Todd Pletcher did with Destin in 2016, it is when a horse makes a big forward move and runs a huge Thoro-Graph and Ragozin number, which Destin did by equaling the stakes record in the Tampa Derby, and there is the fear he will bounce badly running back again. But in this case, Domestic Product is coming off mediocre at best Thoro-Graph numbers of “7” and “7 ½,” and those are the fastest numbers he’s ever run. So the question is, can he go straight to the Derby off such slow numbers and off an eight-week layoff? In the past, horses always ran again after the Tampa Derby, but the fear of losing and having your Derby bubble burst has become too strong at a time when the goal of most trainers and owners is to get to the Derby. Whether this applies to Brown and Domestic Product I am in no position to know. I still like this horse a lot and have faith in Brown’s ability to get him to the Derby in good shape. Whether that’s good enough to win I have no idea, but although I am skeptical, in a year like this I still consider him a contender, even though it goes against all my principles of handicapping the Derby.
14—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
He has sort of been forgotten since his distant third-place finish behind Mystik Dan in the Southwest Stakes and was allowed to go off at a generous 45-1 odds in the latest Derby Future Wager even though his Thoro-Graph, Brisnet, and Beyer numbers have all progressed with every start, something you rarely see, especially with as many as six starts. He does need to still keep improving, but not a great deal off his “4 ¾” in the Southwest. What he has going for him is that he was broken by his trainer, who has loved him from day one, and Medina knows good horses, having been an assistant to Shug McGaughey for many years. He will be getting his stiffest test in the Arkansas Derby, especially not having run for two months, and will have to get by Mystik Dan, making up those 8 ¼ lengths from the Southwest, as well as Timberlake and a fast and classy Baffert invader in Muth. He has a large legion of followers, which I believe is because of his honesty, consistency, and the way he always gives his all in the stretch. I also believe many people have a soft spot in their heart for his sire, who died way too young.
15—Resilience (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike)
He turned in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 at Payson Park for the Wood Memorial. It’s good having the potential overlays of all overlays back in the Rankings. How else can you describe a horse that was sent off at 128-1 in the Derby Future Wager, who most recently held his own, finishing fourth, beaten only 3 1/2 lengths against the likes of Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Track Phantom. With the last three finishing first, second, and fourth in the Louisiana Derby and the race getting a 97 Beyer speed figure, we know for sure now just how legitimate that race was. And he did most of the dirty work having to chase a loose on the lead Track Phantom and still being right there at the eighth pole, despite having just broken his maiden the race before. This is a horse who finished second to Stronghold and ahead of Track Phantom in his second career start and then ran into that monster performance by Nash, finishing third, before finally breaking his maiden by 4 ¼ lengths. He is another at the Thoro-Graph crossroads, having run three straight “7 ½” numbers, and will attempt to make that important big forward move in the Wood Memorial. It won’t be easy with a deep classy field being assembled, but he has excellent tactical speed and looked awfully good in the Risen Star over a sloppy track for the first time against the No. 1, 5, and 7 ranked horses.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
We are all aware that this year’s path to the Kentucky Derby has been a crooked one, but to show just how crooked it has been, the seven fastest Thoro-Graph numbers this year have all been run on sloppy tracks. Four of those seven numbers came in the Gotham Stakes, two in the Southwest Stakes, and one in a allowance race. Only three of the major preps this year — the Rebel Stakes, Fountain of Youth and Tampa Bay Derby – were run on a fast track until Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, whose numbers we won’t know for several days.
Now that we are into the 100 point races it creates another dilemma – who is going to make the cut and which talented horses that might belong are going to be left out? There is no doubt I would have ranked TUSCAN GOLD after his performance in the Louisiana Derby, and probably fairly high up. That’s how good a race I thought he ran. But with only 25 points and currently listed at No. 18 with a number of big-name horses still to run in the six remaining 100-point races, his prospects of making it into the field with so few points don’t look promising. So it’s better to keep him here for now rather than use up a spot. But I sure would love to have him in the Preakness Future Wager.
Breaking from post 10 he was hung four-wide going into the first turn and remained wide down the backstretch and around the far turn while chasing Track Phantom in third and being pushed passing the three-eighths pole. He continued to battle strongly down the stretch through a blistering closing three-sixteenths in :18 flat. He no doubt was getting tired from the wide trip, long stretch run, some traffic problems, having only two career starts, and the distance of 1 3/16-miles, and jumped over to his left lead several yards from the wire. Despite that he kept running hard and finally was able to get the better of Track Phantom, but he had done too much to withstand the powerful closing kicks of experienced graded stakes winners Catching Freedom and Honor Marie, who came charging from the back of the pack. And this was a lightly raced colt coming off a maiden victory and a pair of very ordinary Thoro-Graph numbers of “10,” We don’t know how much the first two finishers improved off their “6” and “5 ½” career best Thoro-Graph numbers, but it’s pretty certain we will see a huge jump from Tuscan Gold, maybe too huge to run back in the Derby. But with six weeks off we’ll see where he stands on the earnings list and whether Brown feels he is ready to run back.
Another impressive horse we can’t add is ENDLESSLY who totally dominated his field in Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks, and if this race was on dirt he would be all the rave today. But his connections have made it pretty clear they do not consider him a dirt horse and have no interest in running in the Kentucky Derby. As for the horses behind him in a cavalry charge five-horse photo, WEST SARATOGA was extremely game holding off the entire pack to get second, giving him 67 points and a berth in the Derby if they want. And I am pretty sure they do, as this is a great story that we will address next week. There is no way you will be able to root against Larry Demeritte One group you know wanted it was My Racehorse and trainer Wayne Lukas, and it had to be frustrating for them to see SEIZE THE GREY just miss getting up for second by a head, giving the colt only 27 points. Right now he’s in, but that is going to change dramatically over the next two weeks. Another who had to be frustrated was Mike Repole, who saw his colt TRIPLE ESPRESSO get in from the also-eligibles and then close fast to miss second by two heads.
For some odd reason GRAND MO THE FIRST, beaten a neck in the Tampa Bay Derby following solid third-place finishes in the Zuma Beach on grass on the west coast and the Swale on dirt on the east coast, was not on the list of Future Wager horses, even though there are six horses listed who have never run in a stakes. Whatever the reason is, don’t ignore this colt in Saturday’s Florida Derby, where he could earn a trip to Kentucky for his Venezuelan-born trainer Victor Barboza Jr., and we saw last year what a Venezuelan trainer is capable of.
Grand Mo the First, who is by Uncle Mo, out of a half-sister to Florida Derby winner Materiality, by Giant’s Causeway, began his career going five and 5 ½ furlongs on the Gulfstream synthetic surface, winning both, one comfortably and one in a dogfight. Looking to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Barboza sent him to Santa Anita to try the grass for the first time in the one-mile Zuma Beach Stakes and he closed from eighth to finish a strong third behind the top-class Endlessly in 1:34 3/5. And we saw what Endlessly did in Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks.
He never made it to the Breeders’ Cup, and following a four-month layoff, Barboza tried him on the dirt, dropping him back to seven furlongs for the Swale Stakes as a sharpener, knowing he would want more distance with his pedigree. Being a fresh horse he found himself one-to-two lengths off a :22 2/5 and :45 1/5 pace and ran hard to finish third behind Frankie’s Warrior and Le Dom Bro, who both came back to run a close second and third to Dornoch in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Now it was time to finally stretch him out to two turns in the Tampa Bay Derby. Breaking from post 9 in the field of 10 he had no choice but to be up close to that sloth-like :25 1/5, :51, and 1:16 1/5 pace, while parked on the far outside. Domestic Product was able to rally inside him to just get up at the wire, but he kept battling to finish third again, beaten a neck and a head. Not only was his “6” Thoro-Graph number five points faster than he’d ever run before, it was 1 ½ points faster than the winner. As Barboza said, “I honestly believe this horse is growing professionally and mentally right now.”
Looking at the UAE Derby and any potential threats to Forever Young and also Pandagate, there is the UAE 2,000 Guineas winner Mendelssohn Bay and the Al Bastakiya (second leg of the UAE Triple Crown) winner Killer Collect, by Collected, who was second in the UAE 2,000 Guineas. From Japan there is George Tesoro, who was beaten a nose in a stakes on March 10 and before that captured a weight-for-age race by 3 ½ lengths. Americans will remember his broodmare sire Casino Drive, who romped in the Peter Pan Stakes in fast time and looked like the main threat to Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes, but was injured the week of the race.
Aidan O’Brien has two named for the race. Navy Seal is bred for the grass and has a fourth in the group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh and a fifth in the group 1 Criterium International, but was a solid third over the all-weather track at Dundalk in his last start. Henry Adams, by No Nay Never, out of a Galileo mare, won his first two starts at Naas and Leopardstown before finishing fourth, beaten 3 ½ lengths, in the group 1 Grand Criterium in France and then fourth, beaten six lengths by budding superstar City of Troy, in the group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Japan will also be represented by Satono Phoenix, who has two wins on the synthetic surface, but was 10th in the Saudi Derby, and Ballon d’Or, sixth in the Hyacinth Stakes.
We should get at least some of the questions about Forever Young answered in the UAE Derby. But there is one Japanese horse whose questions won’t be answered until they cross the finish line in the Derby, and that is the Hyacinth Stakes winner RAMJET, who will be going into the Run for the Roses off an unprecedented 11-week layoff. The son of Majestic Warrior has won three of his five starts, none over a mile, and in the Hyacinth, in which he was 12-1, he made a long sustained run beginning at the half-mile pole and didn’t change leads until two furlongs out down that long (over three-furlong) stretch at Tokyo Race Course. He kept getting stronger with every stride and charged past the leaders to win going away.
Looking at his pedigree, his sire Majestic Warrior’s fourth dam is by Triple Crown winner Secretariat, to whom he is inbred, and his dam Neferteri’s fourth dam is by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, to whom he is inbred, and is a half-sister to Canadian Triple Crown winner Dance Smartly.
In Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile Fukuryu Stakes, Japan’s final race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, T.O. PASSWORD opened a big lead in the stretch and just held on by the skin of his nose, so he didn’t exactly look like Derby material.
One horse who was ranked in the Top 20 when we expanded the list and who we are still high on is ENCINO, who runs next in the Blue Grass Stakes. Only two horses, Nyquist and Street Sense, have ever won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. Whatever relevance it might have, Encino is by Nyquist, out of a half-sister to Street Sense. Simply put, we’re talking about a horse who is by a Kentucky Derby winner out of a half-sister to a Kentucky Derby winner, who is by a Preakness, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, who is by a Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, who is by a Triple Crown winner. If you go further, Encino’s third dam is by His Majesty, sire of a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. To confuse you even more, Encino’s second dam is by a son of a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, out of a mare whose sire sired a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. And finally moving to Encino’s male family, Nyquist’s fourth dam is by Hall of Famer Arts and Letters, winner of the mile and a half Belmont, mile and a quarter Travers and Woodward, and two-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup.
It looks as if Sunland Derby winer STRONGHOLD will remain in California for the Santa Anita Derby now that Nysos is on the sidelines and he made it clear he’s in it to win it by turning in an eye-popping five-furlong work in a bullet :58 2/5 in company with two workmates. Breaking off six lengths behind the leader and three lengths behind the second horse, he closed in nearing the quarter pole and charged by both of them in the final furlong with the rider barely moving his hands. If you are a fan of A Christmas Story, you can say he got rid of the big bully Scut Farkus and feels like he can handle his “toadies,” such as Grover Dill and the other small-time Baffert bullies, although Maymun and company may be hard to handle as well. I had Stronghold ranked in the first Top 15, mainly off a very impressive maiden victory at Churchill Downs, but there was too much indecision surrounding the colt’s schedule to keep him there. The only reason I haven’t put him back at this point is the abundance of speed influences in the bottom half of his female family, such as sprinters Jimmy Creed, Henny Hughes, and Swiss Yodeler. But if he runs big in the Santa Anita Derby and looks like he wants to go farther he surely will return. Trainer Phil D’Amato did say there was a slight possibility he could go to the Blue Grass, but he prefers to stay home.
The Santa Anita Derby still could be a Baffert fest with four possible starters headed by Maymun, with the others being Wine Me Up, Wynstock, and Coach Prime. One interesting starter is TAPALO, who was a strong second to Endlessly in the El Camino Real Derby. Other possible starters are MC VAY, third in the San Felipe, and the recent maiden winner TESSUTO.
The Wood Memorial field continues to grow. As we listed earlier, along with Deterministic, TUSCAN SKY, RESILIENCE, BE YOU, EL GRANDE O, CAPITAL IDEA, UNCLE HEAVY, DEPOSITION, TOP CONOR, and possibly Just a Touch, we now have recent winners SOCIETY MAN, EVENING NEWS, and possibly LONESOME BOY, who is also being considered for the Bay Shore Stakes.
For all the fans of KNIGHTSBRIDGE, he will finally make his 3-year-old debut in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream on Thursday, where he will face only five opponents.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
“Due to uncertainty whether either of his horses would make it into the Wood field, trainer Chad Brown shipped Top Conor and Good Money to Kentucky for Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes.”
This from DRF today. !
Go Top Conor !
Anything but lame. Owners had every chance to move Muth to another barn, they declined. Perhaps they need to deal with it!
They will Mike !!! In the Preakness and Belmont. I feel pretty confident there will be no Triple Crown Winner this year because a Baffert horse will win one of those races!!! Blame Churchill mgmt for that.
Sure! Let’s blame Churchill for everything lol. Bob isn’t only ride in the park.
Todd Pletcher isn’t some sweetheart either., ask NYRA?
Agreed! Pletcher,Asmussen and many aren’t on my hit parade.
Fierceness was assigned an Equibase Speed Figure of 110, geared down no less. His Beyer has to be in excess of 100.
Muth, as expected, put on a show in the Arkansas Derby. What will Maymun do in the Santa Anita Derby? Fierceness, showed the Achilles hoof closers have in distance races when the race can be slowed to walk early then turned into a sprint home.
The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile is holding relevance after Muth winning easily Arkansas Derby…
Just Steel is always there… could be an choice for the exotics in the Derby.
Maybe Lukas will give Just Steel day off tomorrow.
Hey the owners pay him big bucks to get their horse to the Derby and he did. BTW did you know Seabiscuit ran 35 races as 2 year old. One thing about Just Steel he won’t be lacking a “base” ….unless Lukas completely stops on him.
Did you know he ran LS so many times she didn’t want to load into gate any longer? Thanks for giving him pass. Shocker! Lol
Congratulations to Fierceness and Johnny V, connections.
That was impressive to say the least.
Tyler G got Liberal Arts stopped. See what happens when you leave it to one run to make it.
Liberal Arts is another beauty. I really like the looks of that guy. He was a little keyed up in the post parade. Won’t make Derby unless a bunch of horses drop out. I don’t like it, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
Big win for Muth, see ya at the Preakness. Baffert is loaded, more big boys running next week.
Muth run out after the race was ultra impressive as well. Colt has really developed into a beast.
The expert commentary I heard prior to the Arkansas Derby was so ordinary what did they know about Muth prior to a race? The Santa Anita Derby can’t come any sooner.
Nelson, there was a filly in one of the DWC races that was fast. I think she was by Frosted and may hay finished 3 or so in the race.
Do you have any idea who I am talking about??
There was one Frosted filly who ran in the Al Quoz Sprint named Frost at Dawn who finished in 10th after running in mid pack and a son of Frosted named Jasper Krone was 11th in the same (4th) race
Muth looked like he would have had a shot in the Derby. The fans want to see it. Churchill says “NO!!”.
So lame. Would have been a strong contender in the derb.
Baffert is NOT a victim. He violated racing rules and CD penalized him. Get over it!
According to Maggie Muth is not very excited to run today… changing the bets !
I cringed when I heard that comment; I knew she was wrong! He looked absolutely locked in, and not overheated.
Apparently, Maggie speaks with the horses as they get saddled, warm up and load into the gates….. that’s why she has a Brinks truck waiting for her after every race card.
Not my fav Individual.
The big question was, could Fierceness repeat his terrific BC Juvenile. If he could even come close he would blow away this field, with only one G3 winner and an untested colt with lots of potential. So he wired this field and won by a large margin in a very good 1:48.22. It is difficult to imagine that any winner of the final four preps will be the favorite in the Ky Derby, where Fierceness will not have as easy a time making the early pace. Now(!) it’s exciting.
Winston, it reminded me of Oxbow, Stevens/Lukas ploy, in the Preakness Stakes putting Orb off his game plan then sprinted home. Without Baffert speed in the Kentucky Derby are they all vulnerable to Fierceness doing same?
That was crazy. There were 3 or 4 horses that I figured could get the lead before Oxbow. I’m hoping that Dornoch will help to make the Ky Derby honest.
“Johnny V is still sitting pretty!”
“Fierceness is putting on a show at Hallandale today!”
We’ve been waiting for a performance like this.
Derby Favorite?
Still, which Fierceness shows up at Churchill?
“He never had a threat!”
Two horses on the pace took them all the way.
Thought Ortiz was his Jockey. Was there a change tobJohnnyV or am I just confused?
Johnny V rode him in the Breeders Cup—Irad had no Florida Derby mount….the extra week helps Fierceness now—he looked awesome on the track before the race, CALM…..thats your Derby favorite—he’ll be no higher than 5/2—-he is a beautiful horse, so is Sierra Leone, with his small head (which I love..)..
: 36 4/5 last three furlongs wrapped up…
I recall we discussing some weeks ago how Irad Ortiz Jr. LOST Fierceness mount after deciding to pilot Noted instead of the champ in the BC Juvenile… since then JV is the one in the irons of the son of City of Light … and it would remain so for the Derby…
We hinted that Irad Ortiz might have been disappointed after a dull run in the Champagne and thought Noted had better chance at Santa Anita…
Hope Johnny V stays on him.
Thanks for the answers about the change, I was not aware.
The Champ is back!!!
You better believe it, Nelson.
He just stamped himself as the KD favorite.
This is the fastest place to find out what happened. Out to dinner and Couldn’t get the breaking news link on drf to load.
Look at the times 24.06 47.50 1:11.31 1:35 63 1:48.22
extraordinary split and final times considering it was more like a public workout …!
Great race by Fierceness, perfect ride by Johnnie V. I feel bad for Hades and Conquest Warrior, the latter won’t make the Derby and didn’t fire. He was sweating beforehand, maybe it was too much excitement.
The winner is a very slight horse, maybe he can’t take a bump, but he can run fast.
Happy Birthday Secretariat.
It’s post time for the Florida Derby, may the best horse win.
The best horse won, Fierceness.
Congratulations Facteur Cheval !
I neglected to mention his win earlier today.
Pandagate got up for 3rd. A non-threatening 3rd though. Good for him.
Forever Young was wide all the way. I don’t know Auto Bahn. Not sure what Forever Young beat today, but you can only beat what they throw in there with you. Props for his will to win.
I’ll wait for Steve Haskin’s next column before including Forever Young. I still suspect that we have 4 or 5 better. No offense.
Yoshito Yahagi, trainer of Forever Young, said that his father died earlier today. He felt FY’s victory was a gift to his dad.
Yes, it was a bittersweet day for Mr. Yahagi. I feel that Forever Young’s courage and heart on the track will help to console Yoshito Yahagi in his grief. Let’s wish him well.
Very sorry to hear this, condolences to Mr Yahagi and his family.
Today, Tuscan Sky fired a bullet 4F in 48.70 (1/20) and appears ready to fire in the Wood Memorial.
In addition, Merit fired a bullet 5F in 1:01.30 (1/5), although it remains unclear where Merit is headed for his next outing.
On a sad note, today, Resilience worked 4F in 48.40 (1/47) but it appears he sustained an injury to a ligament in his left knee and is now off the Derby trail.
Thanks for the update Bill.. Tuscan Sky will be tough to beat in the Wood Memorial…
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
I like Deterministic for the win in the Wood, but I’d very happy to see Tuscan Sky finish 2nd and earn enough points to put him in the Derby starting gate. I’ve got $40.00 to win on both colts in Futures Pool 3. Deterministic at 107-1 and Tuscan Sky at 88-1.
Bill, selecting Conquest Warrior and Timberlake.
Good luck Mike.
Due to a minor ligament injury in his left knee, Resilience is now off the Derby trail.
DRF mentioned “Top Conor or Good Money could be rerouted to the Blue Grass, trainer Chad Brown said”….. both horses worked this am with Good Money bullet 1/47… and Top Conor also had a nice work.
Well the big day has arrived and I guess we will put up or shut up on were to put our money.
In the Ark Derby I am going to play a Trifecta Key/Box. For first I have Timberlake (2), Muth (7) and Mystik Dan (9)
For 2nd Timberlake (2) , Muth (7) and Mystik Dan (9) and for 3rd (All). In my previous post I have express my concerns for the top 3 but I just read a story on Mystik Dan in the Bloodhorse were the jockey , Brian Hernandez , states they have been working with him to relax and work behind horses. This what I wanted to hear about him. McPeek does not feel his last race was a fluke.
In the Florida Derby just placed WPS bet only on Grand Mo the First. Just have a feeling about him !!!
Good Luck to all today !!!
Congratulations Laurel River. That was impressive.
Interesting that Laurel River in his last race in the US in 2022 won the SEVEN FURLONG G2 Pat O’Brien Stakes defeating Senor Buscador, Defunded, The Chosen Vron and C Z Rocket!!!!!!
Great form race for the G1 Dubai World Cup….. Bwahahahaha
I think Speaker’s Corner was in that race….favored…..
I saw that!
Another son of Into Mischief winning big at 10 furlongs for Judmonte… speed is king!
I’ll tell you why. His dam is by a Belmont winner, his second dam is by a Belmont winner, and his thrid dam is by a Belmont winner, by a Trople Cown winner.
Yes indeed Steve… I love that combination of Empire Maker, Touch Gold and A.P. Indy no less… the recipe of Into Mischief with wives possesing staying power has been pretty successful.
Reminds me of the Bold Ruler – Princequillo nick … albeit Bold Ruler being way superior runner than Into Mischief was.
Let’s see how Timberlake runs today … he also got some good European stamina at the bottom…
Yes he was… a super fast miler stretching brilliantly to 10 furlongs…
Ushba Tesoro and Senor Buscador are staging an interesting rivalry of international deep closers … this time there was not enough number of speedy horses for a hot pace like it was at Riyadh …
Nelson, it would seem they are. Perhaps we will see them go he ad to head again.
Congratulations Rebel’s Romance, Godolphin, William Buick and Charlie Appleby.
Rebel’s Romance ran the last 1/4 mile in 22.29 … after a moderate pace no one was going to get him…
Auguste Rodin was very disappointing .. hope he is OK
Evidently this is how AR is, brilliant or a dud. I was somewhat disappointed but as long as he comes out of the race in good order, all is well.
Emily Upjohn ran well think.
I am thrilled RR won, really like him.
Lemarie replaced with Murphy on Derma Sotogake.
Racing TV reporting Catnip euthanized
Having liked his looks in the paddock, I went to look up Catnip’s pedigree and there was a note that he’d already been euthanized. Horrible.
Ms B I was watching on the live feed off the Dubai Racing Club web-site and did not see the fall thankfully. Reports from those who did see it said it was awful. Lemarie was laying flat out and motionless.
I’m relieved to have missed it, but falls are terrible things in this sport.
I took a chance and watched Laurel River’s amazing run, so came here to see the reaction. An then there was this … Will I ever learn?
R.I.P. yet again.
SMH
WickedOne, I agree.
Oh dear, Catnip went down, Lemarie left in ambulance per reports.
Forever Young gets the same points as Florida and Arkansas Derby winners, for beating a softer field . . at least he’ll take action in the Derby…nice horse but I will try to beat him in five weeks…..
Good luck with that Matthew W, LOL
I agree, Matthew. The adulation and support for UAE Derby winners amazes me. Nineteen starts in 15 runnings since 2000, with a record of 0-0-0, and no 4ths, one 5th. This one could be the shortest price ever for a UAE winner. Mendelssohn was 6.80-1 as the 3rd favorite. Last year, Derma Sotogake was 7.80-1 — also as the third choice. Will a UAE runner eventually win the Ky Derby? Probably. Then I’ll start to consider them as bona fide contenders. Forever Young was all out to pass Auto Bahn in the stretch. Auto Bahn!
The close finishing 2nd place Auto Bahn carried 10 lbs more than the winner … it was not a strong field….just saying….
You don’t need to convince ME. 🙂
Tuz (Oxbow), a $7,000 purchase has won the Golden Sheema!
That is very cool! I loved Oxbow, and he hasn’t sired many big winners. Glad to see him have success here.
Correction: Golden Shaheen. Sorry my bad.
Congrats to Forever Young. Sakai rode a smart race and had Forever Young in perfect position to launch his bid in the stretch. I was somewhat surprised by the pedestrian time but as Nelson and Lynda have said, the Meydan track seems to be on the heavy side today. Mssrs. Fujita, Yahagi, Sakai and one Forever Young are making reservations for Louisville on May 4th. Aa shiawase nani nichi (Oh Happy Day)!
Looking forward to a strong race from Liberal Arts to get points and into the KY Derby. My TRI will be 5,7/5,7/1,2,9. $21 bet on this TRI.
As expected Forever Young wins comfortably the UAE Derby over the 4-year-old Argentinian Auto Bahn and 7 lengths behind in a very creditable third place finish was the New Yorker Pandagate.
Auto Bahn had won his debut in Argentina in a flashy 1:20 4/5 for 7 furlongs before running two times at Meydan getting acclimatized with two close runner up efforts at 7 furlongs and 1 3/16 preps…
Interesting to see his Thoro Graph figure… after a 1 it should be 0 or a negative … anyway, he should be running for the Roses attempting to take the first ever Derby for his horse loving country.
Congratulations Forever Young!
His time of 1:57.89 was not as good as the times clocked by Mendelssohn (2018) or Derma Sotogake (2023) but Meydan track is very heavy today…
If the Dubai World Cup is run in 2:04 and change Forever Young’s time becomes a bit more stirring…
The gelding Pandagate got a brilliant future as well …
Agree about dirt track.
Just thrilled Forever Young won!
Yes Pandagate ran very well. So happy for his connections. Bright future for sure!
and Mendelssohn Bay was not too shabby finishing in fourth place… I believe the son of Mendelssohn was not 100% for this race…
Mendy Bay was not quite ready for this race, agree. But he was very game. Think he has a bright future as well.
Casa Creed was foamy in the walk over and a bit rank. My thought he was not going to do well.
Some concerns about the Gun Runner colt. I did not see it but several are saying on another site that he looks like he was eased or fell back quickly.
Yes .. it seems like there was something amiss with Guns and Glory and did not finish the race… hope is nothing serious…
Welcome to the derby Forever Young!!! He ran a professional race and he switched lead smoothly. Always love a derby horse that doesn’t mind kickbacks. A real contender for the derby.
WickedOne, I agree.
Nelson, your thoughts please. Do these track conditions hurt or help Kabirkhan?
Lynda I believe the heavy going will benefit Kabirkhan more than anyone else just because his first nine races were on beach like sands … so the son of California Chrome is very accustomed to heavy footings… his running style (pace tracker) also helps.
Thank you. I feel the same but my expertise/ knowledge on the track conditions is so limited.
WOW, that Run Happy colt looks sharp!
Lynda, if you recorded the races, go back and take a look at the background story on Kabirkhan/racing in Kazakstan. The tracks look like something out of the late 19th century, with grass growing along the edges and horses training in the snow.
Ms B, I have watched his races and training, workouts etc in Kazakhstan.
One time there was an alligator in the middle of the track and huge mud puddles the width of the track.
Looked like the track rail was some sort of white tape in places.
And yes the trees, grass and shrub type bushes right on the rail.
The start gate looked like something from 60 years ago and was rusty.
He finished 8th which I think is great considering these were the best in the world. He did finish higher than Newgate, Baffert’s horse.
He is 4 and I am sure he will be back.
I was very impressed with Forever Young, who is unbeaten with three graded stakes wins. There aren’t any American 3YOs who can say the same. Final time may not have been fast, but one of the announcers noted that he ran the last 400 meters in 24 seconds. He’s a consistent sort, and he can stay. The trainer said he put the cupless hood on FY to help muffle kickback from the dirt track.
California Spsngle!
Tower of London wins Dubai Gold Cup easily.
Brilliant ride by Ryan Moore.
Two Rivers Over wins Godolphin Mile, Walk of Stars 2nd, Isolate 3rd
I’ve liked Fierceness ever since his first race, and I’m not stopping now. Yes, he’s unpredictable, but I tend to judge a horse (not handicap a race but judge a horse) off his best performances rather than his worst ones because there are all sort of reasons why he may perform below his abilities but there’s no way he can ever perform beyond his abilities. His best races are the measure of who he is and his worst ones may not be. Looking at the Florida Derby, I believe Fierceness has more ability than all the others put together. He may or may not show it, but I know it’s there because we’ve seen it. I am concerned about the 10 post–he needs to get away quickly–but I’m sure he’s the best horse and I hope he chooses to run that way. I’ll be cheering for him.
As for the Arkansas Derby, I like Timberlake.
Jiffy,
Some cold facts and comments for you to ponder.
The Breeder Cup Juvenile top 4, their post time odds and next out result
Muth – 3/2 – Next out winner of the San Vincenti
Timberlake – 2/1 – Next out winner of the Rebel
Fierceness – 16/1 – Next out 3rd in the Holy Bull
Locked 1/1 – Yet to make a 3YO start.
Muth won the G1 American Pharaoh ahead of his start in the BCJ.
Timberlake won the G1 Champagne ahead of his start in the BCJ.
Fierceness finished 2nd to last by 20L in the Champagne.
Locked won the G1 Keeneland Breeders Futurity ahead of his stat in the BCJ.
Muth – Defeated by 6 1/4L
Timberlake – Defeated by 8L
Fierceness – Won by 6 1/4
Locked 1/1 – Defeated 6 3/4L
Three last out G1 winners were blown off the track by an opponent that finished 2nd to last by 20L in its start ahead of the BCJ. Can any serious analyst consider such a result normal?
What exactly was done to Fierceness to influence such a performance? That should have been the question and not the rush to assign superstar status to the colt.
Fierceness returned in the Holy Bull and was beaten by a last out AOC winner and finished behind an opponent who was beaten by 16 1/4L in the Remen.
The fans of the colt were left perplexed, and one has to question why? There was nothing normal about the BCJ result and Fiweerceness’s performance in the Holy Bull is clear indication of this.
Among the ranked horses Mystic Dan and Liberal Arts need to finish no far than a 3rd place in the Arkansas Derby to aggregate 46 and 44 points respectively. So, it will be the last chance for one of them to get a Derby ticket. The points for the fourth place (15) would put them on the fence with 36 and 34 points respectively. The presence of Timberlake and Muth makes it even more challenging for one…
Conquest Warrior needs at least a second place in the Florida Derby to get 50 points that could be enough to qualify. Hades would be border line with 45 points accrued if he finishes third in Florida tomorrow. Fierceness would have enough points with even a fourth place tomorrow.
The excitement is growing hour by the hour!
It’ll be interesting to see how much action Kabirkhan takes, he’s 9/2 and I think they could make him the favorite!…I also think Derma Sotogake is going to run well tomorrow, after missing work and the Japan prep races and then injuring an eye in a scuffle during transport—he ran 5th….he improved last year at Meydan…..I played Newgate, because I know he is doing well but this is a solid field! A terrific early morning card! Then an afternoon of Oaklawn and Gulfstream some good races and finishing with two tremendous Derby preps! Have A Nice Day!..
I reckon that Derma Sotogake ran a better race in winning the UAE Derby than Ushba Tesoro did in winning a weak Dubai World Cup last year.
As you said, Derma Sotogake was short for the Saudi Cup and now he is in better shape to make up the 2.5 lengths over Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro. On top of that the race set up will greatly benefit his running style …
Happy Easter and enjoy the and amazing Saturday of racing !
I saw the notice about this website being redone and decided to buy some Secretariat merchandise. I’ve never bought collectibles before but thought I’d sample this. The second shipment arrived today and I want to compliment the website for their nice whiskey glasses and 50th anniversary pin. They capture the pageantry of horseracing and the pin can serve as a good luck charm for betting, maybe. I’m sorry to see the lease is up on some of the items this website sold, tomorrow, Secretariat’s birthday.
There is an international feast of Group 1 action this weekend. The Dubai World Cup undercard includes other four Group 1 and three Group 2 Stakes.
Also, in Australia our mate Davids will likely be enjoying Flemington’s Australian Cup where the three top horses from the March 16 All Star Mile (the super fast mare Pride Of Jenni, Mr. Brightside and Godolphin’s Cascadian) got the best chances overt the 1 ¼ mile Group 1 contest.
At Rosehill the main features are the Vinery Stud Stakes (with Orchestral as the headliner) and the Tancred Stakes where odds-on choice Post Impressionist looks tough to beat.
In Dubai the 8 year old gelding Lord North is attempting to win the Dubai Turf back to back for the fourth time … I don’t have ALL the stats of consecutive wins in the same Grade/Group 1 Internationally but I know that Winx won the George Ryder Stakes (G1) and the W. S. Cox Plate (G1) in four consecutive years.
Anyway, winning tomorrow would be quite a feat for Lord North who is undefeated at the distance (1 1/8 mile) and in 3 runs at Meydan. John Gosden and Dettori are primed to write Meydan history but they will have to contend with Luxembourg who is now in better shape after his disappointing 4th at Riyadh’s Turf Cup a month ago.
The powerful European connection of Westerberg, Mrs J Magnier, M Tabor & D Smith, Aidan O’Brien together with Ryan Moore has not won the Dubai Turf yet. You would guess that the ownership would be more prominent over Turf Stakes on Dubai World Cup day but they actually have better numbers on dirt sporting three UAE Derby wins (Daddy Long Legs, Lines of Battle, Mendelssohn). The Coolmore people took last year’s Dubai Gold Cup with Broome for the first time and are looking to “break their maiden” tomorrow in the Dubai Sheema Classic with champion Auguste Rodin.
Also they are attempting to win their fourth UAE Derby with Henry Adams or Navy Seal; and Tower Of London is the 7/2 favorite for the Dubai Gold Cup.
Just for the fun of it, I am registering my selections for the Dubai World Cup day.
GODOLPHIN MILE, 1 m, 8:05am EDT: 7. Saudi Crown, 4. Isolate, 11.Two Rivers Over
DUBAI GOLD CUP, 2 m, 8:40am EDT: 11. Siskany (GB), 13. Trawlerman(IRE), 16. Tower of London(IRE)
AL QUOZ SPRINT, 6f, 9:15am EDT: 2. California Spangle(IRE), 3. Casa Creed, 12. Star Of Mystery(GB)
UAE DERBY, 1 3/16m, 9:50am EDT: 5. Forever Young(JPN), 7. Guns And Glory, 10. Mendelssohn Bay
DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN, 6f, 10:25am EDT: 10. Nakatomi, 13. Sibelius , 1. Bold Journey
DUBAI TURF, 1 1/8 m, 11:10am EDT: 8. Luxembourg(IRE), 7. Lord North(IRE), 10. Measured Time(GB)
DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC, 1 1/2m, 12:00pm EDT: 9. Auguste Rodin(IRE), 12. Liberty Island(JPN), 2. Justin Palace(JPN)
DUBAI WORLD CUP, 1 1/4m, 12:35pm EDT: 4. Derma Sotogake(JPN), 11. Ushba Tesoro(JPN), 10 Señor Buscador, 6. Kabirkhan, 9. Newgate
Meydan will be a fantastic preamble to the exciting cards at Oaklawn and Gulfstream…
Nelson,
My selections are close to yours.
Godolphin Mile – Saudi Crown and Isolate
Al Quiz Sprint – Casa Creed, California Spangle
UAE Derby – Forever Young, Pandagate, Mendelssohn Bay
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Sebelius
Dubai Turf – did not know enough about field to make a selection
Sheema Classic – Auguste Rodin, Emily Upjohn, Rebel’s Romance – have to always cheer for the girls that run against the boys
Dubai World Cup – Kabirkhan, Ushba Tesero, Senor Buscador, Derma Sotogake
Very plausible selections Lynda… I forgot about how good Emily Upjohn was last year… her Coronation Cup was really compelling!
I want to see how she comes back after 8 months on the bench…
Thank you Nelson.
Looking forward to watching the races.
Still somewhat of a novice on these International races and competitors but am slowly learning.
Having Facebook racing friends who live in other countries has certainly been a big help.
It is a lot to get your arms around with all these courses, distances, connections, owners etc.
I am enjoying it though.
It gives me an opportunity also to learn about other cultures.
Have you ever heard about the Native American Indian Relay races in the USA? Read something interesting yesterday that the tribes are purchasing OTTBs to add to their string of ponies. Talk about exciting races to watch! Can you imagine our Thoroughbred jockeys riding in these races. Frankie Dettori would probably go well withe that dismount he has, LOL.
I think Kabirkhan has a good chance to do well in this race. He is 17H of muscle, has speed and power and a big stride
If he breaks well, can get to outside and settle there, he has that same stretch kick Chrome has. Some feel he’s actually faster than Chrome. And he loves this track. Doug Watson has won 8 trainer championships.
I like Pandagate. He looks so much like Arrogate and has been training well. I watched his arrival in Dubai and he looks in great shape. I do think Forever Young wins this tace though.
Safe races for all!
The odd maker agrees with you by making Kabirkhan the 7/2 second favorite only behind Ushba Tesoro (at 5/2).
A whole country is behind the son of California Chrome and it would a great story if he wins tomorrow…
Yes the odds have been tightening over the past few days for the DWC.
Probably all the Chromies around the world betting on Kahbirkhan.
I heard that Borat is all in on Kabirkhan. Niiiiice!
Nelson, you are doing great so far!!!
Thanks Lynda… the most difficult races are coming now after the UAE Derby… a couple of big long shots are waiting to happen…
They will draw post positions for the Bluegrass on Tuesday. Highly regarded Dornoch and Sierra Leone expected to enter. It got me thinking about last year’s Bluegrass when Tapit Trice was favored at something like 3-2. Looking back, Tapit Trice beat Verifying, Blazing Sevens, Sun Thunder, Raise Cain, Mendelssohn’s March, Hayes Strike, Classic Car Wash, Scoobie Quando, Major Blue, and Clear the Air. Tapit Trice turned out to be decent. Nosed out for 2nd in the Belmont by Forte and he raced in only Grade 1s the rest of his year. I would call the rest of that field 2nd tier 3-year-olds as it turned out. No offense. Good horses. Just not the cream of the crop. Which race turns out to be the key race for this year’s Derby? It might turn out to be the Bluegrass, but you never know. Such an interesting sport.
While anticipating the run of Forever Young in the UAE Derby tomorrow morning, I saw that he was named after the theme song of a Japanese TV drama based on a book written by Susumu Fujita, the owner. I had assumed that the name was a play on his dam, Forever Darling. Well, I searched You Tube for the song performed by the Japanese punk rock group AK-69. This song is pure mind rattling noise and I had to shut it off. What a bummer, it almost makes me want to jump off the Forever Young band wagon. Ha, ha!
I’m thinking that other songs done by Bob Dylan, Rod Stewart and Alphaville with the title ‘Forever Young’ would be more appropriate for the Japanese flag bearer. In fact, the song by Alphaville (1984), which has a fear of the nuclear bomb theme, contains the following lines in the lyrics….. “It’s so hard to get old without a cause; I don’t want to perish like a fading horse.” These lines hit home for me. It signifies continuing to pursue your dreams and stay in the race as you age. Stay active!
You go, Forever Young. Do us proud!
I always preferred the Laura Branigan version of that song.
Dewey I listened to the Forever Young song that the colt is named after…well I say I listened to it, turned it off real quick. My husband asked me if I was listening to Eminem now, HA HA.
Hard to top,in my opinion, Dylan and The Band singing Forever Young in the Last Waltz concert.
Yes, Lynda, I have to agree that Dylan’s Forever Young is a classic.
We have a lot of good racing on our plate today. I’m on my second cup of coffee while looking over the card at Meydan. I’m psyched for days like this as we start with Dubai, then Florida and Arkansas. All aboard!
RE: Florida Derby
Key Hades and Fierceness on top, in the first two slots, with Frankie’s Empire, Le Dom Bro, Seminole Chief and Conquest Warrior underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots, in a $2.00 superfecta p/w wager.
That is: 2,10/ 2,10/ 1,6,8,9/ 1,6,8,9. Cost: $48.00.
RE: Arkansas Derby
Key Muth on top, with Timberlake, Time for Truth, Mystik Dan and Imperial Gun underneath in a $2.00 superfecta p/w bet.
That is 7/ 2,4,9,10. Cost: $48.00.
I like your Arkansas Derby bet, Bill. Not sure what to make of EITHER Hades or Fierceness on top in the Fla Derby, but good luck to you in any case.
I got your same Arkansas Derby formula (Muth to win) but I am swapping your Imperial Gun with the other Asmussen Gun Runner Dimatic and Time for Truth with Liberal Arts.
Your superfecta design is very appropriate for the Florida Derby rating… I am using the same method but with some different horses:
9-Conquest Warrior/10-Fierceness
9-Conquest Warrior/10-Fierceness
1 Frankie’s Empire/2 Hades/4 Grand Mo the First/5 Real Macho
1 Frankie’s Empire/2 Hades/4 Grand Mo the First/5 Real Macho
What is your take on Repole/Pletcher entering hugely overmatched Bail Us Out in the race? Will Irad Ortiz be so agressive over Hades so as to wear him down? If that is the case, Fierceness is then expected to rate behind the impending fast pace … do you see the champ rating despite this running style not being his best way?…
Sometimes running tactics matter a lot …
Best of luck in all your bets and safe runs for everyone…
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
I expect Hades will go to the front and employ a catch me if you can strategy. As for Bail Us Out, he’s coming off a maiden win, and will have to pass the class test before he gets me attention. However, there is a significant of speed in the race, IMO. I suspect Johnny V will rate Fierceness behind the pace setters and make a late move to be right there at the wire. If Hades can replicate his Holy Bull performance, and carry his speed over 9 furlongs, then he could hit the wire first.
That said, I believe Fierceness is the class of the field. If John Velazquez can work out a good trip, Fierceness should capture the Florida Derby. That’s the reason I keyed Hades and Fierceness on top in the first two slots, because I believe those two will finish 1st and 2nd. It’s just a matter of which one hits the wire first.
Good luck to you as well, Nelson.
Hey Nelson
Now that Seminole Chief has scratched out of the Florida Derby, I replace him with Grand Mo the First.
My new Superfecta P/W wager will be as follows:
2,10/ 2,10/ 1,4,6,9/ 1,4,6,9. ($2.00 super p/w)
Good luck Nelson.
No Liberal Arts (Mr Prospector over Norhtern Dancer)
Suffice to say, I’m not on the Liberal Arts bandwagon.
Good luck, Counter Point
Today, Deterministic fired a bullet 5F in 1:01.60, 1/5.
It appears that Christophe Clement has his colt fit and ready to fire a big one in the Wood Memorial.
And he’s got Acacia Courtney Clement in his corner! She’s married to Miguel Clement, was a cheerful handicapper at Gulfstream Park for a few years and helps cohost the Eclipse awards.
I’ll say this about Miguel Clement, he has excellent taste.
Just a Touch going to the Bluegrass instead of the Wood Memorial??? New York looks like the best place for him to me. As always, who am I to question Brad C?
He is stabled at Keeneland, but the Blue Grass is a tougher spot and Cox has Encino in there for Godolphin. But they are so high on this colt and have always been, I beiieve they feel he can beat anyone. He may be that special.
I better include him in some exactas in next week’s Kentucky Derby Future pool. I appreciate your comment. It gives me confidence on a horse that I like. He fits the current profile of less races is more. As you point out, he is a May foal which accounts for the late start and bigtime improvement in each race. If Brad C does run him in the Bluegrass against current favorites Sierra Leone and Dornoch, that would be the ultimate sign of confidence IMO. I’m getting excited about him just thinking about it. Wherever he shows up moving forward.
Hey TommyMcD
It’s very possible that Cox wants to avoid a rematch against Deterministic, who beat Just a Touch by two lengths in the Gotham.
Evidently, Cox must feel that Just a Touch has a better chance of picking up some Derby Points in the Blue Grass. We’ll see.
I’m glad Just a Touch is running in the Bluegrass. He definitely has a big chance to win the race. Sierra Leone is a deep closer and IMO Dornach is overrated. JATV won’t have to ship and should be ready to roll. Glad I bet JAT at 31-1 in KDFW5. Looking forward to Liberal Arts firing a big shot tomorrow’s ARK Derby. I bet LA at 46-1 in KDFW2.
Is a mile and a quarter the best distance for Senor Buscador? Still, I’d love to see him do it. I wouldn’t bet on it though.
Is the Oaklawn Mile the best distance for Necker Island? It’s been a long time since he won at 2-turns. Love the horse. Again, I wouldn’t bet on it.
I’m betting Necker tom…..
Eight of the eleven horses in the Southwest—-finished more than 17 lengths behind …that might be a key race….
Forever Young is a big favorite in tomorrow’s UAE Derby and if he wins will likely be among the favorites at Churchill in 5 weeks. He recovered from a poor break in Saudi Arabia to beat Book’em Danno with a furious finish. Book’em Danno is currently ranked 53rd on HRN’s Kentucky Derby rankings. On Saturday, he meets another favorable field. A New York-bred and turfers trying dirt. I hope he wins tomorrow. But I think that we’ll have at least 4 or 5 better on the first Saturday in May. No offense.
Just picked up my Saturday Form, the cover is a close-up of Fierceness’s eye …..a far cry from the old big day Pep covers!..
Peb!…..
Update! The Racing Form has only one Meydan race…and it has wrong info—example: it shows Crupi having been beaten by two necks, in the Pegasus….
Peb was awesome. His covers added to the race day experience.
Matthew, I’m just curious….. what are they charging for the DRF these days? I use the Brisnet pp’s and haven’t seen a Racing Form in quite a few years.
Dewey, I buy a Racing Form twice a year–for the Derby and the Breeders Cup. The one for the 2023 Breeders Cup cost $12.00. When I bought it in our local store, a person there thought I was paying for a subscription instead of a single issue.
The statement below is an extract from a post below.
“There is an understandable fading of the hype around Fierceness but one cannot forget he owns the most resounding display of talent by any 2-year-old last year.”
Was Fierceness BCJ performance the most resounding display of talent by any 2-year-old last year?
In a submission several Blogs back. I questioned how impressiveness is determined. I posed the question because there seems to be a template and/or blueprint for what should be classified as impressive. That template is a wide margin wins, in fast times that result in high-speed figures and low sheet numbers.
If the above is the acceptable mode/blueprint to determine impressiveness. It represents a very narrow horizon and one that needs to be broadened.
In my initial KD List, I had Parchment Party and Sierra Leone ranked at 1 & 1A. I considered their two starts as 2YOs to be the most impassive I had seen. I gave the edge to Parchment Party with his MSW/AOC wins because he possessed the better stride mechanics. despite Sierra Leone having a faster turnover rate and a 2nd place in a graded stake.
Sierra Leone has been at the top of Steve Haskin’s DR for several weeks. If Parchment Party wasn’t sidelined, he would probably be ranked at either #1 or #2. How did I make this determination? Parchment Party in his 2nd start ran by LA Derby winner and the #5 ranked Catching Freedom as if he were tied to a pole.
I didn’t rank Fierceness or Locked in my top 5. Why would I. know the Todd Pletcher program and what it produces. Consequently, I do not focus on his horses because like paper roses they only seem to be real. Their perceived impressive performances are also like paper roses.
How could a knowledgeable analyst, driven by objectivity, rank Fierceness’s BCJ win as more impressive than Sierra Leone’s 2nd place finish in Rensen. We have seen Street Sense disappear from opponents by10L in the BCJ. We saw Arazi like a missile launched from the back of the filed run by Bertrando as if he was tied to a pole. And saw Fierceness romp by 6 1/2L.
We have never seen a last out MSW winner in a 9F graded stakes debut erased a 12L deficit on a speed bias sloppy/sealed surface; lose ground going 7W at the top of the lane; lost further ground by drifting form the middle of the tack to the rail; relinquish a slim lead and come up shot by a NS. The aforementioned is equivalent to multiple stops in a 20 horse KD race.
The June foal Parchment Party in both his 1st and 2nd start display a level professionalism and poise to record last to first win whilst navigating traffic in tight spaces that defied his tenser age. For a colt so young to be defeating older peers with such authority was beyond impressive.
Those trapped and/or encapsulated by a blueprint for impressiveness that denotes wide margin wins, in fast times and high-speed figures. Need to expand their horizon beyond the parameter of the traditionally used blueprint.
With respect to Derby Rankings – Week 10, it’s interesting to note their respective sire lines.
Mr. Prospector has six:
Sierra Leone
Fierceness
Deterministic
Conquest Warrior
Dornoch
Liberal Arts
Norther Dancer has six:
Timberlake
Mystik Dan
Just a Touch
Hades
Domestic Product
Resilience
A.P. Indy has two:
Catching Freedom
Honor Marie
Turn To has one:
Forever Young
Just something to ponder.
There really isnt anything to ponder. We’re talking about two different things. Again, it’s not about talent. The Mr. P blood is the most potent we have ever seen. It is everywhere. I will just point out that five of the six horses you have named have made between 2 and 4 lifetime starts. There is a reason today’s horses are so lightly raced. Mr. P was a very fast sprinter who was by Raise A Native who was too fast to last, bowing a tendon after only 4 career starts and 4 big wins. That is the abundance of speed we have in today’s pedigrees.
I agree, Steve. My apathy toward the KD is directly related to your point. I don’t really know these horses going into the derby, and we probably won’t see them much afterward, so i just don’t care. I still like to bet, but my love for racing is rooted in the past.
Hi Steve
Thanks again for addressing the Mr. Prospector speed influence that is so prevalent in the pedigrees of countless thoroughbreds.
From my perspective, speed on top and stamina on the bottom is what I look for in any given pedigree.
The six horses I mentioned from the Mr. Prospector sire line, (Deterministic, Fierceness, Dornoch, Sierra Leone, Liberal Arts and Conquest Warrior) meet that criterion. In addition, I would add Tuscan Sky, Hall of Fame, West Saratoga, Track Phantom and Imperial Gun, all of which meet that criterion, (speed on top, stamina on the bottom).
Bottom line, that makes ten colts from the Mr. Prospector sire line that “could” make the Derby starting gate.
Bill, again you’re handicapping these horses based on Mr Prospector and i never give him a thought because hes in almost pedigree. Once again I am talking about soundness not performance. But we’re on different wavelengths so just ignore what I said. If you like those horses because of Mr. P in their pedigree that’s fine, really.
Yes, Steve, I agree, we are on different wavelengths. I merely pointed out my preference to horses with sires that lead directly to Mr. Prospector. Nothing more, nothing less.
Actually, I prefer horses from the Mr. Prospector sire line, crossed with horses from the Nothern Dancer broodmare sire line.
Just to be clear, I always appreciate your informed input that you provide in your Derby Rankings, week after week.
Have a great day.
Bill, like Conquest Warrior for FL Derby. Timberlake for other race.
Am rooting for Mystic Dan…a homebred with Arkansas connections…am rooting for Conquest Warrior and his trainer Shug–whom I have always admired, even though he never races out here it’s like Mandela is to eastern fans you just admire them …almost hoping Forever Young romps, and keeps the Japan entrants to two —these preps are same points and much easier fields, than the Ark/Fla Derby’s ….
I’ve been a big fan of McGaughey since the Seeking the Gold/Easy Goer era. I also love Clement and Mott. All are deserving of a Derby win (2nd for Shug, real one for Mott). I’ll be happy if one of their colts wins, even if it beats my pick (assuming it isn’t my pick).
For those who are interested there is a good article about Kirbarkhan on Blood Horse.
Reports out of Japan are that California Chrome’s 2022 racing crop of fillies are doing really well on their first tests.
Kentucky bred son of Chrome cost $12K….wears his country ‘s colors and is very popular! Much larger than Chrome —with his sire’s ample stamina— same color and very much shaped like his sire—both small in the rump … Will need to fashion an inside trip, I like Newgate but am rooting for Kabirkhan!…
Lynda I took have heard they are very pleased with the Chrome youngsters in Japan! He will have a good career there (mehopes), where he probably wouldn’t have her—he liked turf….
Matthew W, guess it is no secret that I will be cheering for Kirbarkhan eventhough I do like Senor Buscador and both Japanese entries.
If by chance and with a smile from the racing gods and lady luck he does win, the cheers will be heard around the world.
Despite the disillusion felt by racing fans with Fierceness erratic ways this crop of 3-year-olds has been very consistent while navigating the first three months of Derby preps.
If you compare the first Steve’s ranking to the one of present week 10 you will find that 8 are still ranked among the top 15. Seven horses exited the rankings due to clear reasons: Parchment Party was sent to the farm for 60 days, Otello and Real Men Violin fell off form, Locked and Snead had minor health setbacks. Track Phantom is out of the top 15 (due to confirmed lack of stamina) but he is in the Derby, and Stronghold was always gravitating as a possible California-based horse entering the Derby in Steve’s estimations (i.e. he is clearly among the top 20 currently).
Those (7) slots were filled by up-and-coming Hades, Mystik Dan, Deterministic and Just a Touch, by Japanese sensation Forever Young, Domestic Product and Resilience. With the last two prominently featured in the second KotD of the year one can confirm the solid reliability of the original top 20 colts.
You may be asking yourselves, what is the deal with 8 horses holding their own at this stage?
Well, if you look into last year’s rankings you will notice that only 3 of the original top 15 remained on week 10 (Forte, Practical Move and Disarm). It is worth noting, though, that for the last 14 years an average of 50% of the original top 12 horses made it to the Derby. The most reliable and durable class was that of 2012 when 10 of original 12 ranked horses endured to run in the Derby.
As Steve stated a couple of times, slow times, wet tracks, some weak fields and Fierceness’ volatility might have left a sour taste among racing fans but I see other spotlights shining on the arena.
You have a Champagne victor with viable Classic aspirations for the first time since Tiz the Law four years ago and getting ready to break a 20-year Derby spell.
There is an undefeated Japanese horse moving closer to get the first Kentucky Derby for his horse loving country.
Another nice story would be the possibility of having full brothers winning back to back Derbies for the first time.
Dornoch and Sierra Leone made good on the promise of their Remsen performances with their subsequent wins in the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star Stakes respectively. Another bright point is that the Remsen became a consequential Stakes. So far, Dornoch , Sierra Leone and other five of Remsen participants have validated how fruitful that 2-year-old Stakes was. Drum Roll Please took the Jerome Stakes, Domestic Product won the Tampa Bay Derby, Le Dom Bro was 2nd in the FoY and Copper Tax won the Private Terms Stakes last weekend at Laurel.
There is an understandable fading of the hype around Fierceness but one cannot forget he owns the most resounding display of talent by any 2-year-old last year… As fans, we fill that void by enjoying the beauty, power and talent of brilliant late bloomers like Deterministic, Conquest Warrior, Tuscan Sky and Knightsbridge.
The fact that there is no super star looming as a possible Triple Crown champion does not preclude appreciating the merits of this crop.
The Triple Crown series may or may not define a clear division leader but it would surely set the stage for a showdown of the best sophomores in the historic and most momentous Travers Stakes. Then we would very likely know who the champion is as it happened the last three years.
Thank you Nelson. You have very eloquently put things in a perspective that is appreciated by many of us.
Thanks Lynda… I really appreciate your kind words.
Hi Nelson,
I always read your postings with great anticipation – as a friend and as a fan of horse racing. Like Steve, you find patterns where I felt none existed while explaining your points without being patronizing.
Regarding your next to last paragraph, if either Sierra Leone or Conquest Warrior win the Derby (and I see it as down to them and Mendelssohn Bay if he qualifies tomorrow in the UAE Derby), then I could say the three-year old crop has a looming Super Star.
I am keenly looking forward to both the FL Derby and the UAE Derby on Saturday.
Be well my friend, and best wishes for a Happy and Blessed Easter.,
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Happy Easter to you my friend…!
I am glad you like my contributions here… Steve and Leonard have fostered a very friendly and open environment forum… and this aids in sharing freely our thoughts and passion for horse racing.
Excellent post once again, Nelson. Fierceness’s BC Juvenile win was amazing. In addition to BSF 105, Brisnet 112, Equibase 110, and negative-1 ½ Thoro-Graph figures, it was the fastest raw final time of the nine Juvenile races at Santa Anita (dirt, 8.5f). And he looked great doing it. But I recall a previous Juvenile winner and undefeated 2-year-old champ, trained by Pletcher, who returned in the Holy Bull Stakes. He gave up the lead in the stretch to Itsmyluckyday and finished two lengths back in second place. In the Florida Derby, Shanghai Bobby finished 5th.
Thanks Winston for your reply.
You are right in supporting Fierceness’ irrefutable powerful display with those credible metrics for his BC Juvenile. There were other spectacular debut winners who I loved last year but those speed ratings and figures you acurately describe were against the best two-year-olds at the time.
My intent with the statement about Fierceness feasts was to merely remind that as fans we are able to just dream about other horses emerging as stars to “cure” the disenchantment of a champ going down…it was to achieve a comfort tone in the writing.
But if a discussion should be taken about Pletcher’s 2-year-old champions I would say that Fierceness resembled Uncle Mo more that Shanghai Bobby. Uncle Mo, as you know, suffered from serious illness (digestive if I recall well) that impaired him in the Wood Memorial and sent him to the bench for 4 months… never recovered in my view though. BTW Shanghai Bobby was also victim of some setback because he was out for 6 months after the Florida Derby.
I know there is a perception that Pletcher got no solid 2-year-old champions but Forte proved to be a worthy one … albeit early in his 3-year-old season. If you allow me, I would say that, out of Pletcher’s four 2-y-old champions, Uncle Mo and Forte were credible ones that could not go farther due to health setbacks.
Fierceness might be silencing his doubters tomorrow but I believe he is a case of acute precocity and others are just catching up now…
Hi, Nelson. I compared Fierceness to Shanghai Bobby because both (a) were trained by Pletcher, (b) won the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita, (c) were champion 2-year-olds, (d) returned in the Holy Bull Stakes, and (e) lost the Holy Bull as favorites. I agree with you about Uncle Mo and Forte. What might have been!
After watching the video of Knightsbridge’s runaway win today, I’m starting the think the best 3YOs will appear after the Derby this year.
Love this colt and the connections.
I think that happens quite often, the best of the best appear after the Derby!
Seriously doubt it Ms Blacktype. Alot of people say alot of things.
Ms B, Mr Mott is looking at the Pat Day Mile as his next start.
Some horses just grab my heart and Knightsbridge is the latest.
Believe it, Ms Blacktype. Missing from the Derby are Parchment Party, Nysos, Maymun, Speak Easy, Born Noble, Muth to name just a few that come to mind.
TAPIT –
The subject stallion must have created history in the 2023 Kentucky Derby as a broodmare sire. His mares produced the following entrants:
Rocket Can
Hit Show
Disarm
Kingsbarns
As a sire he was represented by Tapit Trice, the 2nd choice in the wagering that finished 7th. Tapit is all but missing from the KD Trail in 2024. However, he is likely to be represented as a broodmare sire by the promising Just A Touch.
Tapit will be represented by Will Take It in the A K Derby. The colt was assigned a ML of 50/1. He was purchased out of the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale as well as 4 others in the field. See below:
Will Take It——-$700,000
Timberlake ——$350,000
Informed Patriot – $90,000
Muth————–$190,000
Just Steel———$500,000
The most expensive yearling of the 5 from the same sale has a ML of 50/1. For a final price of $700K, there must have been significant interest in the colt. Further, he must have checked several more boxes than Timberlake and certainly Muth.
Will Take It record in 3 starts reflects two 9th place finishes beaten by a combined 37 1/4L and a 2nd place finish by a NS at 42/1. Interestingly, the two races in which he finished 9th were won by Imperial Gun and Dimatic who are also in the A K Derby field.
What is a maiden doing in a G1 KD Prep? Well, for the colt’s last start the blinkers were removed and his assigned Equibase figure for 2nd place finish by a NS was 91 compared to the 55 for his previous start. He is one of several in the field with a last out Equibase figure in the nineties.
Did the removal of the blinkers switch on the proverbial light bulb for the expensive Tapit colt?
Can he return sufficiently improved 5 weeks between starts and win the AK Derby?
Does his purchase price suggest he is a better athlete than the 4 others out of the same sale?
Could anyone without a ticket find forgiveness if a $700,000 Tapit colt win a KD prep at 50/1
Congrats to Japan’s TO Password for being able to hang on for victory in the Fukuryu Stakes last weekend, garnering 40 points to ensure entry into the Kentucky Derby. Lucky for his connections the finish line arrived when it did, as another Triple Crown nominee was a split second away from rocketing past him. His name: Arare Tabashiru. It was this Japan-bred’s eighth career start. The Cape Blanco (Ire) colt’s first four races were on grass. All four were dismal efforts. Switched to dirt in start number five proved to be the answer. He proceeded to reel off two wins to go along with two narrow losses (all at nine furlongs). The average post time odds for Arare Tabashiru’s dirt starts: 35/1. That was nothing compared to the level of disrespect shown at the mutuels for his four travesties on turf. In those the odds average was 175/1!
Rodney Dangerfield, eat your heart out!!
On Mystik Dan my main concern is that I don’t want him near the lead early in the race. I want him more mid pack in the early part of the race.
Seize The Grey reported to be pointing to the Blue Grass.
geared down in 1:36.75
Bill Mott must has done something wrong in the eyes of the Derby Gods to have both Parchment Party and Knightsbridge off the KD Trail.
EDIT
Knightsbridge geared down in 1:36.75
Looked good. I wonder if he’s going to be a 7-furlong/miler-type like Speaker’s Corner? Time will tell.
We have to be positive that Parchment Party wiil return to the races as Arthur’s Ride did the other day.
Hi Steve
Tuscan Sky is listed as a “possible” in the Wood, as well as the Blue Grass. Do you have any idea which race Todd Pletcher will choose for Tuscan Sky’s next outing?
From my perspective, based on what this Vino Rosso colt has accomplished in just two career starts, he could be the best KD prospect in the Todd Pletcher barn. He’s inbred to Mr. Prospector, top and bottom, which is an added plus, IMO.
The way he drew away from Nash in his last start, is a strong indication that 9 furlongs is well within his range.
BTW, many thanks for another week of your in-depth analysis of your top Derby Rankings, we’re all very appreciative.
He might be looking at the weather. Originally it was the Wood I.will check with my source. I like him wherever he goes but the Wood is a better spot. As for his inbreeding I think 80 percent of all horses are inbred to Mr. Prospector so that means nothing. If anything he has too much inbreeding to Mr P. Not the soundest of pedigrees.
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
I’m somewhat surprised that you feel “Mr. Prospector is not the soundest of pedigrees.”
A significant number of Kentucky Derby winners have sire lines that lead directly to Mr. Prospector, which is well documented.
This year, the following Derby contenders have sire lines leading directly to Mr. Prospector:
Fierceness
Track Phantom
Dornoch
Sierra Leone
Hall of Fame
The Wine Steward
Liberal Arts
Conquest Warrior
Imperial Gun
Tuscan Sky
Deterministic, your #6 ranked Derby colt, has a sire line and broodmare sire line leading directly to Mr. Prospector.
Deterministic is my top contender on the Derby trail.
With respect to “too much inbreeding to Mr. P.”, I respect your opinion, however I believe the jury is still out on how much is too much.
I’m looking forward to the remaining Derby prep races that will be contested over 9 furlongs. We should see a seperation
Edit to say,
I’m looking forward to the remaining Derby prep races that will be contested over 9 furlongs. We should see a separation of the contenders from the pretenders.
Mr. Prospector over Mr. Prospector
Mine That Bird – Birdstone – Minig My Own y Smart Strike
Rich Strike – keen ice – Gold Strike by Smart Stike
Excellent examples of Mr. Prospector sire lines over Mr. Prospector broodmare sire lines.
In addition to Deterministic, Sierra Leone (ranked #1 on just about everyone’s Derby list) is a colt from the Mr. Prospector sire line, and his dam side reflects in breeding to Mr. Prospector.
Imperial Gun, (headed to the Arkansas Derby), is another colt that has inbreeding to Mr. Prospector on top, and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector.
BTW, Imperial Gun is listed at 30-1 in the Arkansas Derby. Steve Asmussen is not known for throwing his horses to the wolves just for the hell of it. Suffice to say, Asmussen believes in his Gun Runner colt, and so do I. Hopefully, IG picks up enough Derby points to make the Derby starting gate.
Thanks for posting those examples of Mr. Prospector over Mr. Prospector.
Good luck Counter Point.
Has nothing to do with talent. You mentioned several of the hundreds of thousands. It is widely believed a good part of the reason todays horses are less sound and dont last long is the over abundance of Mr. Prospector blood.
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
Soundness issues aside, I believe this year’s Derby winner will be from the Mr. Prospector sire line.
The Arkansas Derby brings together a decent field but on reviewing it becomes clear to me 3 horses (Muth , Timberlake and Mystik Dan ) stand out. 3 horses ( Just Steele, Imperial Gun , and Informed Patriot )with a puzzling last race. 3 horses ( Dimatic, Time for Truth, and Will take It ) who seem to be outclassed at this time but may show future promise down the road. And 1 (Liberal Arts) has shown previous promise but the big question will he fire this time.
At first glance Muth looks like the horse to beat. His previous good races he shown good speed and times and has run faster than any horse in this race. But the big question mark is the time between his last race and this race. If the length of this race was 1 1/16 I would say he was a shoe in but being it is 1 1/8 miles it could be a stamina issue. I am a big Baffert fan and I know he has had 3 solid 6 furlong works ( I wish 2 of them had been a 7 furlong and 1 mile work ) but is it enough??? It will all depend on where he is placed in the race. I would like to see him 3 or 4th but it will probably be leading or 2nd. My question with him will be stamina.
Next is Timberlake a solid competitor. Did what he had to do in his last race to win it. Showed patience and ran behind the leaders. The big question for me will he show the acceleration needed in the stretch to win this race??? His works coming into this race are Ok but nothing electrifying. Would have liked to have seen a last work of 4 furlongs in 47 flat or better. I don’t think stamina is an issue it is turn of foot when needed.
Now is it is Mystik Dan, In watching YOUTUBE reviews of the Arkansas Derby the pundits out there are puzzled about him and really don’t know what to make of him. He has been called the mystery horse, the wild card, the unknown. I say it will all depend on how he is ridden. If he is taken to the front I don’t think he will make it to the end (just like in the Smarty Jones ). He won his last race coming from off the pace. He took mud in his face and came with an electrifying move no other 3 year old has shown this year. I don’t think it was a fluke. A horse has got to have the talent and physical make up to do a move like that. If I was his trainer I would tell the jockey not to go for the lead but get the horse in a position of within 6 lengths of the leaders but no further than 8 lengths going into the first turn and to save ground by getting to the rail. Keep him in a good position down the backstretch and let him all out on the turn coming for home. Big question for me with him is the ride he gets.
Again for me on paper it is a 3 horse race with the other possibility of Liberal Arts running the race of his life.
Appreciate your analysis. I would have no concern about Timberlake’s stretch run. He’s earned triple-digit Late Pace ratings in the last three races (Champagne, BC Juvenile, Rebel). As for Mystik Dan, the two mediocre fast-track efforts before the Southwest are a major concern for a race on a fast Oaklawn track.
“(Liberal Arts) has shown previous promise but the big question will he fire this time.”
Liberal Arts record is as follows (Starts 6 – 2-1-3)
The colt always fires. he possesses much better stride mechanics than Muth. Iam of the opinion he is the better of the two despite their race records.
You’ve summarized my thoughts and misgivings about the Arkansas Derby along with the suggestion of Liberal Arts as a major threat to a tee. If Muth is ‘Baffert ready’ then it’s over but as you’ve mentioned above the time between races is a concern.
The weather’s perfect so there’s no excuses. Let’s hope for an enthralling race. Best of luck.
When I observed two of Todd Pletcher’s colt’s being ranked #1 & #2. I questioned why TP was the default KD trainer in the absence of Bo Baffert. Many might think I am somewhat of a malcontent or a Todd Pletcher hater. But neither characterization would be applicable. Was my question justified?
Todd Pletcher’s KD record of two lucky wins from 64 starters in KDs from 2000 to 2023, with 2003 being the only year he didn’t have a starter, is there as a guide. The HOF trainer’s KD record should in no way contribute to his KD prospects being overhyped or him being a default KD trainer in the absence of the KD’s best Bob Baffert. Why so many analysts insist on divorcing Todd Pletcher from his abysmal KD record remains baffling. TP’s record is what it is.
I questioned why Brad Cox wasn’t the default KD with BB out. In the 2023 KD, Brad Cox had beaten post time favorite Anel Of Empire that finished 3rd. He also saddled the 5th place finisher. TP entrants finished where most of his entrants normally do i.e., amongst the also ran.
Brad Cox has won the following KD prep:
Champagne
Jerome
Smarty Jones
Rebel
L A Derby
John Battaglia
Brad Cox top 3 finishes in KD Preps:
Remsen
Gun Runner
Gotham
Risen Star
LeComte
He will have at least one entrant in the AK Derby, Blue Grass, Wood and Lexington.
Todd Pletcher has won the following KD prep:
BCJ
Keeneland Breeders Futurity
Tod Pletcher top 3 finishes in KD Preps:
BCJ
Holy Bull
Sam Davis
Street Sense
Jerome
He will have at least one entrant in the FL Derby, Blue Grass, Wood and Lexington.
I am not analyst with either a Blog or YouTube Channel. But if I were associated with any of the Social Media Forums. I would ensure that my content is driven by colt facts.
And you are certain Todd Pletcher is a cheater and Brad Cox is not?
Counterpoint, though i will not be betting the KD but if I was I would “not” play a TD frontrunner going 1 1/4 mile unless 2 conditions are met with that horse. He is the only legitimate frontrunning speed of that race ( It won’t happen in the KD ) or the horse shows a proficiency of running lights out on an off track ( that is always a possibility in the KD ). He does not have a great track record of getting a horse that is a frontrunner to stick it out going 1 1/4 miles !!!! His best chances are with a horse that is a true closer !!!. Even if Fierceness runs true to his previous form and runs near the frontend in the FL Derby and wins I still would not play him in the Kentucky Derby to win. JMHO !!!!
Locked got hurt….. Fierceness ran away from a solid Breeders Cup Juvenile…..Curious about your shock at their ratings, you talk about breeding and what MAY happen, in a race, you give little credence to the actual race performances, if you took note of their actual races you might have understood why they were ranked one/two…..
You just won’t quit with the negativity. I always thought folks were innocent until proven guilty. You are becoming the new Coldfacts.
I decided not to read your posts from here on out.
I am not a speed figure or sheet individual. But I do quote Equibase figures in my submissions for the benefit of those who consider speed figures meaningful. Why do I quote Equibase?
I am of the opinion the site earned its creds when it assigned Rich Strike and Epicenter 99 & 102 for their respective last KD Prep. It should be noted Rich Strike finished 3rd in the Jeff Ruby. The two colts were as close at the finish of the KD as their assigned figures.
FL DERBY ENTRANTS- EQUIBASE FIGURES FOR LAST OUT RACE –
Frankie’s Empire – 3RD FOY ——————– 99
Hades – 1ST HOLY BULL ————————95
Bail Us Out – 1ST MSW ————————–86
Grand Mo the First – 3RD TAMPA BAY DERBY –82
Real Macho – 4TH FOY ————————– 90
Le Dom Bro -2ND FOY———————- —–99
Catalytic – 2ND AOC——————————85
Seminole Chief -1ST AOC————————96 (All Weather)
Conquest Warrior – 1ST AOC———————85
Fierceness -3RD HOLY BULL———————-90
Iris’s Dream 1ST AOC —————————-81 (TUF)
Conquest Warrior the most likely winner of the FL Derby is amongst the 3 lowest last out Equibase assigned figures. I find same inexplicable. His final time for his 9F AOC win was 1:50.52. That time is within range of the 1:50.30 for the Remsen and the 1:50.13 for the Jeff Ruby. The 85 assigned is way too low for geared down performance.
Seminole Chief has an eye-catching swing for assigned figures in consecutive races. For the colt’s last place finish by 45L in the Withers, he was assigned a 28. For his next out victory over 8 1/2F in an AOC on the All-Weather surface at GP, he was assigned a 96. That’s a 68 points swing.
Predicting CW runs well Saturday.
Reaching out there, huh Mike? Florida preps have been dreadful.
His post is good.
I am predicting better than well.
In Seminole Chief’s win in the AOC over 8 1/2F, he covered 6F in 1:10.95 & 8F in 1:35.36 with his final 1/16 in 6.14. Add another 7 or 8 seconds to his final time of 1:41.50 and the resulting 1:48 or 1:49, if replicated on dirt, would be fast enough to win several FL Derbies.
If Seminole Chief can replicate his All-Weather performance on dirt without Lasix, 21 days later. He should have an excellent chance to win the 2024 FL Deby.
Hi
I am very high on Mendelssohn Bay in the UAE Derby. If he finishes first or second, I expect we will see him next in the KY Derby where Churchill Down’s long stretch should nicely suit this closing son of Mendelssohn.
I wish you all a great weekend and a Blessed Easter.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Such kind words. Good luck with Mendelssohn Bay. Nothing would really surprise in any of the preps over the weekend it’s just one of those years especially having the Baffert colts omitted.
In 2004 Friends Lake emerged the 37/1 upset winner of the FL Derby. In colt’s previous start in the Holy Bull, he was the 3rd choice in the wagering and finished 3rd. Why was the 3rd choice in the 2004 Holy Bull allowed to leave the gates in the FL Derby at 37/1? Well, it’s time to plug in my favorite country song ‘People are Crazy.’
The next longshot winner of the FL Derby emerged in 2010. The diminutive Ice Box closed from 11 3/4L from last to tag fellow longshot Pleasant Prince (29/1) on the line.
It has been 13 years since the last big upset in the FL Derby. One is clearly due. With fixation ahead of the 2024 renewal of the FL Derby being on which Fierceness will show up. The remaining entrants with the exception of Conquest Warrior and Hades are viewed as chopped liver.
It is recommended that ahead of a KD prep that hasn’t produced an upset winner over an extended period. A review of the lesser fancied entrants be undertaken to determine if there are any potential upset candidates amongst them. Sometimes the review can be extended to include riders.
REAL MACHO
The captioned colt was the 2nd choice (5/1) in the diminished field of the FOY. He finished a disappointing 4th by 7 3/4L. In his previous start with Lasix, he emerged a NK winner @26/1 over the highly regarded Born Noble. The RDM Lasix was not administered for the colt’s FOY effort.
Some horses do not perform to their previous Lasix added Level, in the race after without the RDM. Real Macho is likely to be more competitive 2nd time without Lasix as he won his 2nd start without the RDM. There are two other factors to be considered.
Real Maco’s sire and dam sire are BCC winners. His 2nd dam was sired by Belmont winner Touch Gold and his 3rd dam by Dynaformer of Barbaro’s fame. If the colt has the class and is a late developing sort. He does possess the pedigree to be competitive over 9F.
The colt will be ridden by Javier Castellano who won some of the biggest 3YO races in 2023. It’s unlikely he lost his appetite for the big moments. Castellano the FL Derby on Constitution in 2014. He was the rider of Mage in the colt’s 4th place finish in the 2023 FOY and then in the KD.
So, in Real macho we have a colt bred to run forever; will be racing 2nd time without Lasix and likely to deliver an improved performance; has the hottest rider from the major 3YO race in 2023 and is at the juicy ML of 20/1.
How is the above colt not considered an upset candidate?
He’s got the loss-win/loss-win pattern going for him third time around. A good upset possibility.
Seminole Chief caught my attention back in December with a nice win in a Florida Bred stakes, but a dubious decision was made to ship Aqueduct for the Withers in February. Came back to Gulfstream and won an allowance on the synthetic. Pedigree looks like the grey comes through Caro on the dam side. Getting Rosario to ride is a big plus, I hope the Chief has the class to compete.
Pandagate is an interesting story. I can’t figure out why they are shipping 14 hours to Dubai for the UAE Derby when there have been plenty of Derby points races here in the States. Sure, it looks like the Bluegrass is coming up tough. The Arkansas Derby is only 3 hours away on a track that might suit Pandagate’s style. If Christophe Clement wanted to squeeze in 2 full movies during his flight, he could have tried the Santa Anita Derby which is only 5 hours away. Afraid of the BB hotshots? With Nysos out, I think that BB will only have one real “hotshot” among the 3 that he’ll likely enter.
Maybe one or two of the owners have some sort of ties to Dubai. I don’t know. Money? The Arkansas Derby has a purse of $1.5million. It just doesn’t feel like a Christophe Clement kind of move. His realm is New York and Florida during the winter. I’ve rarely noticed Clement trainees at Churchill or Keenland.
Looking at Pandagate, he looks like a big horse with a long stride that eats up plenty of ground. Hard to say how fast he was moving in the Gander when he looped his over-matched foes. It looked like he could have had them any time that he wanted. The New York-bred with the non-descended testicles(sounds painful) looks like a Belmont type of horse to me. If the Belmont was being run at Belmont that is. A Saratoga Belmont Stakes will be a whole different thing. Different track and distance. If he’s really good, maybe Pandagate is the next Funnycide. If not quite that good, maybe the next Mr. Buff. Nothing wrong with that. Mr. Buff stood tall against his New York-bred friends.
Interesting and enjoyable post, Tommy. I believe the answer to the travel is in the non-descended testicles and the importance of the UAE Derby as a resume for a future stallion at stud.
Did you mean to say that Pandagate has no potential as a breeding stallion?
Yes Lynda, and, moreover, that the UAE Derby isn’t a race that interests stud farms when promoting a potential sire.
Years ago a cryptorchid was referred to as being “proud cut”.
I had my last colt gelded at 9 months.
Did not want him to realize he was a stallion and develop studding behavior.
My vet explained that often during the surgery, not all the tissue is not removed and this tissue can produce the male hormones.
I had a very nice paint QH gelding about 15 years ago. He was the perfect gentleman under saddle.
When I had a colt born here, the gelding tried to break through the paddock fence, ears pinned, screaming at the top of lungs, pawing.
A short time after that he tried to kill my App mare, went for her throat. Luckily I was out in the pasture. All I could get my hands on were rocks. I ran towards him, threw rocks at his head, screamed at him at the top of my lungs. Finally grabbed a good size tree branch and hit him as hard as I could.
He left my farm shortly after, a friend found him a home on another state where he was the only horse.
While his shilling papers were being prepared my vet determined that he was either proud cut or a cryptorchid.
A.P. Indy was born a ridgling, the undescended testicle was removed after his first race as it caused the colt discomfort when racing. Even so, because of his breeding potential, the connections decided to have the undescended testicle surgically removed rather than gelding the colt.
A. P. Indy had an outstanding physical while becoming the top priced yearling at the Keeneland July Sales in 1990. Being a half-brother to Summer Squall, winner of Preakness Stakes two months earlier no doubt helped. A. P. Indy sold to BBA (Ireland) for $2.9 million.
I had quite a frightening experience with a gelding and stallion once while mustering cattle. A wild stallion with a small group of mares came charging down where we were heading cattle. Suddenly, a gelding my friend’s sister was riding took off to where the stallion was, hollering with his ears pinned backed. Fortunately, a 10 foot fence was between the two but it was not stopping the onslaught. Luckily, Janine was able to dismount safely in time but the only thing that stopped the fight was closeup shotgun fire and car horn beeping.
Because he is a true cryptorchid (both testicles retained), most likely explains why Pandagate sold for $130,000. If he has not dropped by age two, he will not drop. Average age is 9-12 months.
Eventually he will have to be gelded because failure to remove them can result in a cancer, particularly if one is most likely in the abdominal cavity.
In the interim these colts exhibit studdish behavior and can develop dangerous behavior and become very aggressive.
For years cryptochids were not gelded because there was an “old wives tale that muscle development and growth would be impeded by gelding at a young age”. This same theory is often applied as well to male dogs.
Cryptorchodism in horses is considered to be an inherited condition (AP Indy and Honor Code as examples), though there other factors involved such as hormones when the male colt is developing in the mare’s womb and environmental factors are thought to contribute as well.
The removal of the testicles can be dangerous especially if one is in the abdomen. The older the horse is, the higher the risk is for complications.
At my last check yesterday, I saw that Pandagate continues to be the second favorite to win behind forever young.
He is an impressive colt at 17H and looks very much like his late sire Arrogate. Mr. Clement has him in beautiful condition and he has been training well.
Purse, 1 3/16 distance, points (100-50-25-15-10) per Mr Clement.
A $2.5 million purse with a field that is likely inferior to the big preps in the U.S. That’s a strong incentive.
Todd Pletcher has trained seven Florida Derby winners. All seven won their previous race. On the other hand, I can’t recall a Pletcher FD starter that didn’t win its previous race. 🙂
Astute observation.
I’m going to get a close view of Maymun, whom I expect will win the SA Derby and Preakness—its early, but I think he is tops of this crop, Coldfacts pointed out Catching Freedom’s practically stopping after the LA Derby, he had a sustained rally, and was likely tired, Prat said something after the race about having a decision to make— if Timberlake runs well this Sat I think he will pick that guy, leaving somebody with a good mount….I thought Honor Marie was rallying but got tired, I’m not sure about Catching Freedom, how he usually gallops out, but he did practically stop …
I totally agree on Maymun. I have been on his band wagon for months now.
If he goes on to have an exceptional 2024, I think perhaps that those in charge at Churchill Downs will get a lot of flak, rightfully so.
Hey Matthew, where did you see Coldfacts posting. I always thought he was an interesting character.
Deacon, he’s posting here daily.
Hey Mike, what moniker is he using, I don’t see the name Coldfacts on this website.
Thanks
Deacon, Counter Point,I’m my opinion is CF.
Rather, in my opinion.
Matthew, you might want to revisit the Smarty Jones Stakes. Catching Freedom seems to just close down after the race is over. Looked very similar to the Louisiana Derby to me, from what you can see. Both times were long sustained runs.
Good luck with Timberlake in the Arkansas Derby. If Muth is ready to roll, which Baffert usually has them in big races, I can’t see Timberlake reversing their previous meeting. All the colts in the Rebel Stakes, bare the winner, that have raced have been mediocre. Carbone was a distanced second to Nash in the Hot Springs Stakes being the best result.
Maymun is a brilliant colt, and a pet favourite, with oodles of talent but I worry about the 9f of the Santa Anita Derby with such limited experience. Should we be? I hope he aces the Santa Anita Derby and sets himself up for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.
I appreciate that comment about Catching Freedom’s gallop out, so that is normal for him …Honor Marie galloped out twenty in front in Kentucky, so I’m hopeful he has a better race in him, I see 12, even 15-1…..
You have to be impressed with the progression Honor Marie is making and Churchill Downs is his friend. Catching Freedom always seems to recovery from difficulties but the 20 field Derby is another matter. With the majority of the preferred colts being closers a smart trainer/jockey combo could steal the roses – Lukas/Stevens stole the Preakness with Oxbow. Slow the pace to a walk then sprint home, the closers are caught out.
The above scenario will ruin the chances of the colts I like in the Derby so I’m hoping for a good speed horse to come to the fore in the next couple of weeks.
Davids, it’s better to have a closer that’s overcome bad starts or traffic than one without the experience. But closers are always going to be disadvantaged compared to up-close or front-running types. I still like CF’s chances.
Yes, Winston, that’s what I’m hoping for or possibly even better a perfect trip for Catching Freedom for a change. Did you hear Brad Cox on Thoroughbred Daily News yesterday? It seemed as though they intended to have Catching Freedom more prominent early but the mishap at the start ruined that possibility.
Keep the faith.
Yes, Davids. I believe I heard Cox say before the race that he was hoping the colt would be no worse than midpack. I can’t imagine how horrified he must have been at the start of the race up until the final turn.
We’re only just beginning to sort things out. The next two weeks are going to be wild and crazy.
It’s been a long time coming, Winston, but crazy it shall be and as wild as the wind. I really want Flavien Prat to stay on Catching Freedom. His temperament/skills suit a horse like Catching Freedom that’s liable to disadvantage himself. Prat is always so cool under pressure and handles the situation better than most.
Good luck over the weekend, it should be fascinating.
I suspected that was Coldfacts, thanks for confirming.
You’re welcome.
A short video of Justifreak (by Justify) was posted this morning of his recovery from the horrid trailer accident.
The video was shot from his right side. He is still somewhat unsteady, especially on his left side but was standing, eating and alert. Fluids were being administered vja IV. His last race was at the Fairgrounds.
A photo was released yesterday of Vivament standing in his stall. He was able to get up yesterday and stand.He too is receiving fluids via IV.
Neither post indicated which Equine Hospital they are in. Both Rood and Riiddle and Haygard took in survivors. They are receiving the very best of care.
Continued prayers for the 4 horses who survived and the driver.
If I hear about the other two who survived, I will advise.
Thank you, Linda. I only saw the headlines about the three deaths and didn’t read the story. Glad there are survivors.
Post positions for Dubai World Cup race:
Crupi
2-Kabirkhan
3-Dura Erede
4-Military Law
5-Ushba Tesoro
6-Newgate
7-Clapton
8-Derma Sotogake
9-Defunded
10-Senor Buscador
11-Wilson Tesoro
12-Laurel River
Edit: 1. Crupi
I don’t know if Newgate is good enough but at 12-1 I love him!….Speed coming from far outside post. ….Rooting for the Chrome! I’m a Chromie still! I told Jill Baffert I was a Chromie and she said so we’re her and Bob ….
The track seems to favor closers. So if Kabirkhan can over come the pp and not get blocked and settle on the outside I think he has a good chance of winning.
Latest odds I saw a few minutes ago:
Ushba Tesoro 5/2
Derma Sotogake 4/1
Kabirkhan 4/1
Senor Buscador 7/1
Newgate 7/1
Laurel River 12/1
Wilson Tesoro 16/1
Crupi 16/1
Dura Erede 20/1
Military Law 33/1
Clapton 66/1
Defunded 66/1
Derma, Ushba and Kabirkhan have been pretty consistently the top three for awhile.
The above list does show some tightening.
I am not a horseplayer but I do look at the odds for these major races.
Crupi would be making a big step up if he won, he raced a lot as a 3 yo, improved in the Pegasus and may be ready to improve again as an offspring of Curlin. Has one of the best dirt jockeys. It would be a big step up but a real feat to beat those favorites so far from home.
Not a particularly good post for Kabirkhan.
But he has a very good jockey and Kabirkhan is in top form and as fit as any race horse I have ever seen.
Hopefully he will not get blocked in and can settle in an outer lane.
He has a different running style than Chrome but has that fast stretch kick that Chrome had.
I still believe Dornoch and Fierceness are the top two horses and that would include any that were excluded from this year’s Derby. I also hold out hope for Track Phantom who didn’t finish that badly last week, extended his range a little and had an outside post, and also look forward to seeing Deterministic in the Wood Memorial.
The Louisiana Derby’s long run to the first turn negated whatever adverse impact there may have been to Track Phantom’s outside post. The pace in both of his last two races was not all that taxing either. Give the Asmussen trainee credit, he tries every time. If he runs in the Derby, the best that probably can be expected from him is filling out the superfecta.
Track Phantom is a longshot, for sure. If somehow he improves, gets stronger, that might get him over the distance, but he would require a big improvement to go faster earlier and then hold on.
IMO, I think that Track Phantom will get the 10 furlongs otherwise the connections would not be running him. If he likes the CD track surfacr then I believe he will hit the board. He always seems to run a good race.
Thanks for saying so Deacon, hope you’re right.
Many are eagerly awaiting Fierceness’s performance in the FL Derby. I am under no illusion that he has a remote chance of winning. Why am I so assertive? It’s simple! There is an entrant in the field from the barn of a true trainer and horseman.
I invite all to cast your minds back to 2013. Todd Pletcher had a colt by the name Violence. Ahead of the 2013 FL Debry the colt was undefeated in 3 career starts that included two graded stakes wins as a 2YO.
Violence won on debut at Saratoga over 7F, by a NK in a fast 1:22.91. Finishing 1 1/4L in 3rd was a colt by the name Orb. The Tod Pletcher colt’s next start was in the 8F, Nashua (G2), which he won in a fast 1:35.32. His 3rd start came as a surprise as he was shipped to CA to contest the G1 Cash Call Futurity. To indicate just how highly Violence was regarded. Bob Baffert had 4 entrants in the field and Violence was the overwhelming choice returning $0.20 on the dollar. He won by 1 1/4L in what was his final start as a 2YO.
Orb, who had finished 3rd behind Violence when both colts made their debut, was only able to break his maiden his 4th start. He was shipped from NY to Florida and followed up his maiden win with a win in a 9F AOC in a modest time of 1″:51.05. The Claude McGaughey colt was then pointed to the FOY which was the race targeted for Violence 3YO debut.
In the two colts’ first meeting both were debutant. In their 2nd meeting Violence was significantly more accomplished with a G2 & G1 win in less than the number of starts it had taken Orb to break his maiden. Surely the last out AOC winner Orb would be no match for the highly regarded Violence.
The internal fractions for the 2013 FOY were very fast featuring 45 & 1:08 plus for 4F & 6F. Violence assumed the lead at the top of the stretch and Orb who was closing strongly from 10L off the pace, joined him in the lane and after a brief battle inched away late for the win.
Claude McGaughey, a true trainer and horseman, used a lesser accomplished entrant to defeat the vaunted and far more accomplished Violence. That stretch run ended Valance’s career as he exited with a career ending injury.
The $1M Conquest Warrior appears to be far more talented than Orb. Fierceness is not as accomplished as Violence. Many are of the opinion that if the BCJ Fierceness shows up on Saturday, he will not be beaten. I bid to differ. Even if the BCJ Fierceness show up, he will not finish ahead of the Claude McGaughey trained entrant. Conquest Warrior’s maiden breaker was far more impressive than Fierceness’ BCJ romp.
Folks, a true horseman and trainer versus concoction king. Cream always rises to the top.
Your last line: “Cream always rises to the top.” In horse racing? Does it? IMO, true horsemen like Shug McGaughey and Richard Mandella out west, are up against it and have been for about the last 10 years. “Newer training techniques” seem to carry the day more often than not.
My guess is that Fierceness runs big on Saturday before disappointing as the favorite on Derby Day. I’d love to see Conquest Warrior win the Florida Derby. I really would. However, I suspect that he will have a better chance at Churchill if he makes it there.
Whatever, I’ll be watching with interest.
Thank you Counter Point.
Conquest Warrior ran a mini version of the Kentucky Derby in his maiden victory. I have never see a young horse overcome so many obstacles.
He is one determined, talented, and intelligent horse. What a gorgeous horse he is as well.
I am rooting for Shug. He’s an old-school, honest, and intuitive trainer. He’s been called a “gypsy” horseman by Seth Hancock. Gypsy refers to someone who knows intuitively what to do with a horse while training. He has a 25 horse stable and creates an individualized program for each horse.
Steve I’m already rooting for Conquest Warrior, after reading your closing lines on him I am rooting even more!…
I’ll take a second in case Fierceness runs his “A’ race which will blow these horses away.
Steve Haskin, I would love to Shug and Conquest Warrior run away with the whole enchilada. There would be nothing better for the sport to see an old-school honest horseman to win those 3 Classic races starting in the first Saturday in May.
And maybe it would open the eyes of the owners as well. Do you want your horses trained by assistants or by the trainer herself or himself? Do you want your horses in cookie cutter program or an individualized program for each horse?
I remember you brought up a similar subject a few years ago in the Breeders Cup in Churchill Downs with a mare who was never scratched and trained by Pletcher.
Steve Haskin: The mare’s name is Life At Ten.
Terri, Pletcher skated regarding Life At Ten. A serious disgrace!
Fierceness and Mystic Dan! Conquest Warrior strong 2nd!…..
Timberlake is the best horse I have seen run so far on the Derby trail. He should win this Saturday by whatever distance he wants. Will be a very short priced favorite on Derby day.
Steve, from reading your latest assessment of Derby hopefuls one senses that, in your writing, at last the Derby Trail is beginning to take shape from the amorphous mass of ‘possibles’ that might or might not make a noise on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Down. Bravo on your writing and bravo for the sun at New Orleans.
I thought the Louisiana Derby result provided two, if not three, colts that have a genuine chance of taking the roses. Hopefully, they stay healthy until then and, with the racing gods consent, are lucky enough to draw well. Moreover, I hope Prat and Curtis remain on these mounts.
Now, it’s up to the other colts to show their wares in the major preps to join Catching Freedom and Honor Marie as major threats. Until they do everyone is only guessing. The Florida Derby is an intriguing race and nothing would surprise really. Which makes racing the exciting sport it has been for centuries. There are no certainties with an avalanche of excuses on why not.
In the Arkansas Derby, will Bob Baffert’s Muth be just too good, too fast for his opponents? That is the mystery and, should Muth make a mockery of the competition, how does that impact on the Kentucky Derby, we shall see. The UAE Derby is always confusing with the different ages competing but I like the colt Steve has noted – George Tesoro – an interesting pedigree.
Thanks again, Steve. The run for the roses are at last, starting to look, well, rosy. Good luck to all.
If Muth beats the No. 2 and No. 4 ranked horse score one for Baffert
Yes Steve, I believe that is the desire apart from the obvious, pride, prize money, and future value of Muth at stud on winning a Grade 1 race at three.
Steve, Muth made the Baffert point quite clear.
Hi Steve,
Great write up as always. Tough group to figure. So far I like Dornoch, Catching Freedom, Hades and Mystik Dan. The next month should hopefully help to clear some things up for us.
Best,
Hammer
Steve I appreciate the hard work that goes into the Derby Rankings each week. It is definitely al labor of love.
I don’t as yet have any idea who will win this years version of the Kentucky Derby. The fractions & times of these prep races leave a lot to be desired. I certainly do not see any standouts, at least not yet. Even if Fierceness wins the Florida Derby , chances are he will blow up in the Kentuckt Derby as he appears to be an every other race type of horse.
I have a horse I like & have been high on but he is probably is too green to make the Derby. His name is Vlahos. Can you give me your assessments on him if you any.
Many thanks as always………….
Very fast and freaky but forget the Derby/
Deacon: I read that Vlahos was likely for the Pat Day on the Derby undercard. He’s a nice one!
Thank you Steve & Ms. Blacktype
Kudos, Steve, for such a thorough (and not repetitive) analysis of a still very amorphous field. Of whom would I say, “I simply like him?” That would be Fierceness. But I’m also sticking with Timberlake and Gunner Runner’s boy, Sierra Leone, because that what I always do with my early favorites. Since I’m not betting, it seems as good a plan this year as any. I hope the coming weekend will clear the air/field somewhat.
If Fierceness returns to even close to what he was in BC I think he wins for fun. He had no stride extension so either was too short or disliked the track. Im thinking it might be the latter. Or the bumping at the start took somethimg out of him
Amorphous, huh? You dont see that word too often here. lol
I agree with Steve. Anything even close to his breeders cup numbers and Fierceness wins big time. This race lacks stat power besides him
Steve,
My take on Fierceness is that he has to break good. If he doesn’t than he has to prove he can run behind horse which in his previous losses he did not look like he can. Also in his last race he did look like a horse that needed a race as he looked like he had nothing left at mid stretch. I am on the fence with him. Besides him, looks like a couple of horses in this race will have some early speed. Conquest Warrior and Grand Mo the First may pose a closing threat. This is going to be a very telling race.
This year’s 3-yr old crop boggles the mind. Mine, at least. IMO, there is only 1 colt that has shown true star power; Fierceness, and, as Steve correctly says, he is equally Dr. Jekyll or Mr Hyde.
I have a question for Steve. You mention that his current workouts have been strong. Were they likewise strong coming into his “Dr. Jekyll races?
Timberlake is the other horse I believe to be an absolute stud. Should win the Arkansas Derby pretty easily and will be the favorite on Derby day.
Yess but not this strong
Ahead of the Holy Bull I provided a list of the longshot winners of the BCJ and their next out start results. The list reflected 9 such winners and only Street Sense was a next out winner.
Fierceness was unable to defy the wider history of longshot winners of the BCJ. But then, he is no Street Sense. Even the 2007 KD winner had to pull out all the stops to defy history. His victory required a NTR and NS.
Fierceness performance in the Holy Bull was consistent with next out of longshot winners of the BCJ. This is a clear indication the colt isn’t special as some have alluded. Special horses make and defy history ala Street Sense. But many fans of horses pay absolutely no attention to either history or trends.
As the 2023 BCJ winner approaches his 2nd start as a 3YO in the FL Derby. His fans are wondering which Fierceness will show up. My prediction is that the colt that shows up in the Holy Bull will be on display on Saturday.
Counter Point: Agreed. I am going to bet an exacta box on Hades, the winner of the Holy Bull, and Conquest Warrior.
I would not eliminate another horse for third place: Le Dom Bro. He has an excellent unheralded jockey and was a strong second place finisher in the Holy Bull.
Interesting facts:
Interesting facts about the Holy Bull in 2023 and 2024. In 2023, the only gray horse in the race won the Holy Bull: White Abarrio.
In this year’s Holy Bull, Joe Orseno, the trainer of Hades trained Holy Bull’s son, Macho Uno. And Holy Bull’s great grandson, Le Dom Bro was second.
“The New York State Gaming commission voted Monday to uphold a 14-day suspension levied upon trainer Todd Pletcher for a phenylbutazone overage in 2022.”
However, Pletcher indicated he would appeal the decision, which means his promising colt, Tuscan Sky, will be allowed to run in the Wood Memorial on April 6th.
Stay tuned for further developments regarding Pletcher’s suspension, and what impact the suspension will have on the horses in his barn.
Did anyone catch the debut win on Sunday by Cartucho (by Gun Runner) at TBD? It was an impressive effort – the kind you rarely see from a first-time starter. He’s out of the G1-winning dam Malibu Prayer. I’ll be following him as he stretches out.
Winston if you want to see something special look up the maiden race for Conquest Warrior. He had everything happen to him and he won his maiden in spite of it all. He was squeezed back to last b horses on either side out of the gate. He was bumped and then had been stopped and had to restart 3 times due to hoses stopping in front of him. What a warrior.
Yes, it was very impressive. But it was his second race, not a debut. So did you see Cartucho?
I haven’t as of yet, but I will look it up.
CW has great promise. Hopefully he at least takes 2nd.
Thanks for bringing that race to our attention.
I watched the replay and he was indeed impressive specially the way he galloped out … his time (1:23 4/5) for the 7 furlongs was comparable to those of the two 7-Furlong-Stakes the same afternoon… I reckon Cartucho ran the mile in 1:36 and change while powerfully strinding out … He is in my virtual stable already… Chad Brown got another brilliant prospect in his barn…and hope Castellano can keep this mount for big races the second half of the year…!
Cartucho is another high-potential horse who is justifying his high tag price ($1,200,000)…
The comparison to the other 7f races that day is good to know. Thanks!
Nice write up Steve.
Catching Freedom did look like he has improved. However, 1:12 2/5ths is not leisurely in this crop. It seems that it is actually somewhat fast:)
I am looking forward to the UAE Derby and to Forever Young. He just has the feel that he is special.
As for the FLA Derby, I just want to see if the Holy Bull horses are slow or was that a very slow track that day.
Fierceness fooled me in the BC Juvenile and I still cant be on a horse that has ran great two times and bad two times. He will beat me.
Muth has not run since his Old School comeback race in January. He is the best horse in that race but is giving up a lot to frequency and has to overcome the ship. If he wins, it will not be a good look for any of the other horses in the AD.
Stronghold will “put up or shut up” in the SA Derby as Maymun could be special. He reengaged when passes in the last to a very good horse.
Very interesting Derby crop to say the least.
Why would you say it wouldn’t be a good look for any of the other horses if Muth wins? Timberlake is shipping as well. The colt has not stopped working and he was plenty fir prior to JAN. All the rest of the horses just have a couple of races at most that are serious contenders. He didn’t run last month in The REBEL because another horse had an issue on the track so he couldnt get the proper work he needed to travel. Me , personally if he wins , it doesn’t signal anything other than he was the better colt and on paper with his record , he is the better colt. All colts change in their 3 yrold campaign so unless one of the top 3 in the ARK DERBY flounder , i wouldn’t put a lot of stock in it. Timberlake doesn’t need anymore points , so i doubt that they will gut him to win the race but of course they would like TO WIN. Muth doesn’t have to win because he cant run in the Derby and this will be his Preakness prep, but of course they would love to win. Mystic Dan needs to step up , so this has to be important to him. The one thing we do know is the weather is going to be 70s and Sunny and everyone will have a great track to run on.
Muth cannot be the best horse in a race that has not yet been run. He merely has the best resume in the field.
Looks like we are going to have a beautiful weekend at OAKLAWN this year as we head over, so we should see who is the cream . Regardless of Derby points , i still am a fan of MUTH . This colt has been right there for every challenge and his pedigree suggests he will only get better. On another note, i am curious why U keep dropping Dornach but Keep Sierra Leone parked at the top with the comments that you don’t want to move him until he races. At the end of the day Dornach has done everything he has been asked to do and should grit to beat Sierra Leone and had he not bounced off the rail would have beaten him by more lengths than he did. You could argue that he is still green and some could argue the time was not that good but as a trainer do you tell your jock to gut a horse out in a derby prep if your main competition has scratched? I think the goal is always to peak , first Saturday in MAY. I am not suggesting he be number 1, but number 10 on a horse that is already qualified for the derby and has beaten your number 1 , seems odd. Sierra Leone is a really nice colt as well as Catching Freedom , Timberlake ( ill see this weekend) Deterministic( love this colt) are all ones that i like as well as i think folks are missing the boat on Dornach and judge him for doing just what he needs to do to win, when this colt puts it all together , we could see something special. Lastly don’t sleep on Tuscan Sky as this colt could make a huge coming out party next weekend if he continues to move forward. Thanks for taking the time to work so hard on the DERBY DOZEN for us Steve , it is always appreciated.
I thiI’ve been ranking Dornnoch too low for what he hass accomplished. I’m just trying to picture him winning the Derby with his running style and still being green that could cost him. But I am looking forward to seeing how he runs n the Blue Grass and will make a final judgment.
I hope you do not mind if a I respond to some of your comments.
“Dornoch showed grit to beat Sierra Leone and had he not bounced off the rail would have beaten him by more lengths than he did.”
Sierra Leone was defeated by a NS and not lengths. No one accurately knows what impact the bouncing of fthe ralhad on Dornoch. Howeer,he had all the advi=nagted ove Sierra Leone see blow:
More starts
Uncontest lead on asopeed faoring slopp/sealed surface
Shortest route tothe finish line.
I hope you do not mind if a I respond to some of your comments.
“Dornoch showed grit to beat Sierra Leone and had he not bounced off the rail would have beaten him by more lengths than he did.”
Sierra Leone was defeated by a NS and not lengths. No one accurately knows what impact the bouncing off the rail had on Dornoch. However, he had all the many advantaged over Sierra Leone. See below:
More starts
Uncontested lead on a speed favoring sloppy/sealed surface.
Shortest route to the finish line.
Sierra Leone trailed Dornoch by 12L. He erased the big gap; went 7W on the turn for home and drifted toward the rail in deep stretch. He got tired and relinquished the slim lead he had established over Dornoch.
How can any objective analyst conclude that given Sierra Leone’s ground lost and narrow margin of defeat, that he doesn’t deserves to be ranked ahead of Dornoch?
I had to laugh last night right after this was posted, Steve, because you called the Florida Derby the Flamingo, then went on to riff on Man of La Mancha. (I see that’s been fixed). I understand why you did it though, because both the Flamingo and La Mancha were HUGE in the Sixties. The Flamingo, of course, was one by greats from Citation to Spectacular Bid. The list from the Sixties alone includes Carry Back, Never Bend, Northern Dancer, Buckpasser, and Top Knight, all glorious horses. How I miss that race!
This is another column packed with insights and juicy tidbits. But I was surprised to see that Track Phantom is nowhere in your top 15. He just ran his top Beyer number (a 94) in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and 3/16ths race. I still prefer him over horses like Resilience, who has only a 4th place stakes performance and a top Beyer of 85. And Track Phantom is already in the gate, unlike several hopefuls here.
Can you tell us why you dropped him?
I still respect him a lot but as for the Derby he has been beaten twice in a row when he’s had every edge — moderate price and uncontested lead – and still got caught both times and appeared to get more tired the farther he ran. I just dont know if he has the kind of speed you can carry 1 1/4 miles.
That’s perfectly reasonable. I know you sometimes have gut instincts about certain horses, and you are probably right about him. I agree with you that he’s a good horse. It will be interesting to see what Asmussen does with him.
Couldn’t agree more Ms Blacktype. The Flamingo Stakes used to be my favorite Derby prep race – Seattle Slew’s Flamingo Stake’s win is otherworldly. Tour de force!! Hialeah was such a wonderful track in so many ways.
Excellent analysis! Steve wrote, “Some of the analysts were quick to point out immediately after the race how slow the time was in comparison to the few other Louisiana Derbys run at 1 3/16 miles.” He went on to shoot the analysts out of the water. It really was shocking to hear experienced people, led by Jerry Bailey, downgrade the La Derby just moments after the finish solely because of the raw final time.
Published figures for the La Derby (BSF 97, Brisnet 100) confirm what our eyes saw on Saturday.
Below are the best Brisnet figures in this year’s preps:
*Catching Freedom 100 La Derby 9.5f, fast
*Honor Marie La Derby, probably a 99
*Tuscan Gold La Derby, probably a 98
*Mystik Dan 101 Southwest 8.5f, mud
*Deterministic 99 Gotham 8f, one turn, slop
*Just a Touch 97 Gotham
*El Grande O 96 Gotham (prior race, 9f Withers 94, mud, 2nd by nose)
*Timberlake 97 Rebel 8.5f, fast
*Tuscan Sky 97 Allowance 8.5f, slop
If we extend to December, we saw these strong efforts:
*Dornich 98 Remsen 9f, mud
*Sierra Leone 98 Remsen
*Stronghold 99 Los Alamitos Futurity 8.5f, fast (followed by 95 in Sunland Derby, 8.5f, fast)
These are all solid performances that make the runners logical derby contenders. But the final preps are the most telling, and that puts Chasing Freedom at the top of the list.
[Full disclosure: My only two KDFWs are Catching Freedom at 25-1 and Stronghold at 80-1]
Winston, that is so true. I immediately mute the ‘sound bite’ responses from races. The commentators are just filling space for the sake of filling a space. The more extreme their view, the better it is, to seduce the viewer or so they think. lol. It takes time to fully analyze a race.
Amen, Davids. The mute button is our friend.
Great stuff, Steve – thanks!
I was so encouraged by Honor Marie’s race – last time, not only did the race go against him, but his last work was aborted ….do he got nothing out of it. Hopefully he’s set up for his best in KY – I’d love to see that beautiful, sweeping move we saw in the KJC.
Kudos to Ben Curtis…and to Beckman, who’s done a fantastic job with this colt
I was a bit worried about the jockey changed but it turned out the ride was excellent. Didn’t like that HM came out of the last turn pushing a bit right. Other than that it was a solid run. I tossed the Risen Star race out. With the two races in the new season under his belt, he is going to be ready for the derby. I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet this season. Glad to hear Steve mentioned that HM came out of the race fantastic. Very encouraging to hear!!
I still haven’t watched the replay – but maybe HM is still green?
Yeah, very pleased with Curtis….Hopefully all goes smoothly in these 6 weeks.
It could have been a better turn so hopefully the pair will be smoother next time out. I’m not too worry about it. HM is a grinder and full of run which I like. He will be just fine for the 1 1/4 distance. I like to think that he will be real fit going into the derby.
His odd should be nice and juicy.
Betsy, I prefer European jockeys on US closer type runners as the scenario is their bread and butter, day in day out. Post position shouldn’t be a problem for Honor Marie bar posts 1 – 3. Fingers crossed.
Oh, good point, David!
Per Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby representative
@KeibaKate
, the connections of T O Password have accepted invitation to compete in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby.
Has NO shot ! Waste of time ! RAMJET is much better !
Hopefully FOREVER YOUNG runs a big one from post 13 in UAE Derby
Regarding no shot, how do you know?
That’s frustrating. Ramjet had a reasonable chance but I didn’t like the 11 week break a great deal. Agree, T O Password doesn’t have the same appeal.
George Tesoro has an interesting pedigree. The pedigree given ‘pedigreequerry dot com is not correct.
No mention in week #10 of the abbreviated gallop outs for both Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. Catching Freedom was pulled up shortly after the wire.
Tuscan Gold had an extended gallop out. The most aggressive gallop out was that of Common Défense who fade. It’s time to put this colt on the turf where he belongs.
I am somewhat bit more optimistic that Tuscan Gold will get into the KD with has 25 points. I contend if he didn’t jump back to his left lead. he would have finished 2nd.
Tuscan Gold is a very big colt who is pretty close to 17 hands. He has a lot of les under him. I haven’t seen him fully extends his strides. The reason could be there is a lot of turf influence in his pedigree, and he could be struggling with dirt surfaces he has raced on so far,
The dirt surface at CD is friendly to turf and synthetic type horses. Barbaro whose speed figured were significantly better on turf, was fully extended to defeat Sharp Humor by 1/2L in FL Derby. He subsequently won the KD by 61/2L whilst recording the fastest final quarter since Secretariat.
Rich Strike finished15L behind Epicenter in the Gu Runner, In the KD Rich Strike was a different horse. If the theory is right and Tuscan Gold get in. He will be a totally difference colt on the CD surface.
Hi Steve – Glad to see Just a Touch fire s 5F bullet work at Keeneland. I’m hoping he runs in the Bluegrass because I believe he is better than Dornoch and will have a pace advantage on Sierra Leone who will be closing strong. I’m glad to have jumped on JAT at 31-1 in KDFW3. The time has come for Liberal Arts to shine. He will catch a fast track on Saturday which probably will hurt the slop loving Mystic Dan. I believe that Timberlake is overrated and beat a very weak Rebel field. Muth IMO is the most likely winner in the ARK Derby. You know that LA will be closing strongly in the stretch to try to run down Muth. Hoping for a good third or better for LA on Saturday to get more Derby points to make the derby gate. Glad to have bet LA at 46–1 in KDFW5. I will only use LA and Muth on my all stakes P3 which ends with the ARK Derby.
Timberlake isn’t overrated.
“A weak Rebel field”
Do the record books reflect that the winners of KD preps emerged from a weak field? If the answer to this is no. Then the term should be avoided.
The compositions of fields are different with different talent levels. This doesn’t make one weak and the other strong. They are just different.
No owners of the winner of major races wouldn’t declare that their horses won because it was a weak field.
Yes, this is true Counter Point. However, if you glance over the results of the colts that came after Timberlake in the Rebel Stakes you will see a litany of poor results. Subsequently, the Rebel Stakes might have one good colt but the rest of the field were weaker than the usual standard expected in the Rebel stakes.
Steve:
Thanks for all you do; fyi Gand Mo the First is a very generous 300-1 at Circa.
Another Saturday of scratching my head. Hoping this upcoming weekend brings a touch of clarity.
Thanks for the insight.