Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 11
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As expected, we have a major shakeup in the Rankings with Fierceness zooming back to the top. We are going to a Sweet 16 this week in honor of the NCAA Tournament. There is so little to say about many of the horses who have earned their way into the Derby but really don’t look like they have much of a chance of winning or making an impact and also the horses who are running this weekend that are difficult to separate. The final three 100-point races should provide enough answers to give us a solid Top 15.~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 1, 2024 – Week 11
By Steve Haskin
1—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
I have already heard TV analysts say that Fierceness still hasn’t shown he can handle adversity and that it could be very different in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. My initial reaction was why should he face adversity? If he breaks like he did in the Florida Derby, has anyone seen a horse yet who can outrun him and make him face adversity? And as for him taking a snooze in the Holy Bull, my philosophy has always been if you want to beat a fast horse make him go slow. Fast horses do not like to or want to run slow. Fierceness broke like a shot this time and did not have to be used much in the opening quarter to get the lead, especially with Hades having a horrible trip and being shuffled back, and when Fierceness was then allowed to run instead of walk, as he did in the Holy Bull, and go his next two quarters in a sharp :23 2/5 and :23 4/5 the race was over. Instead of being lulled to sleep he was allowed to run the others off their feet. Now he was in his element and doing what he liked to do and there was no one in this field who could keep up with him. When he came home in :24 1/5 and a tick under :12 3/5 flicking his ears around and Velazquez sitting motionless on him it no longer mattered who he was beating. This race was all about Fierceness and how fast he can run without being asked to run and how far he can win by without being asked to win by a lot. In short, the Florida Derby was all about what Fierceness is capable of doing without even trying. We saw it in the Breeders’ Cup when he played with Muth, who dominated the Arkansas Derby. So once again, in future races it will always be about Fierceness and not who he is running against. The real Fierceness runs against himself. See more on Fierceness in Knocking on the Door.
2—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
So what can he possibly do in the Blue Grass Stakes to take back his No. 1 ranking that he took away from Fierceness, who snatched it back with a vengeance in the Florida Derby, turning that race into a procession? Sierra Leone is not going to decimate his opponents the way Fierceness does. His “wow” moments are not provided by huge margins and fast speed times, but by an electrifying turn of foot and relentless closing kick. If he can mow down Dornoch, Just a Touch, and the others at least we would have an exciting clash of running styles in the Kentucky Derby and two horses on the threshold of potential superstardom, with an extremely intriguing undefeated Japanese invader thrown into the mix. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We already have the other two, but Sierra Leone is going to have to contend with a track that can at times be unfriendly to deep closers and a field that so far does not appear to have much speed if any to run with Dornoch. Sierra Leone should be pretty fresh not having run since the Risen Star, so perhaps we will see him closer to the pace than usual and find out if he has that same explosive kick. If he does win impressively with another powerful stretch run we can look ahead to the Derby and imagine what it would have been like seeing the showdown we never got to see between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, both seemingly cut from the same cloth as Sierra Leone and Fierceness. We can dream can’t we?
3—Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
We mentioned after the Saudi Derby that the positives far outweighed the negatives, especially with Forever Young overcoming a series of obstacles that should have prevented him from winning. In the UAE Derby it was only about the positives, and after overcoming a bad post, having to go four-wide into the first turn, running down a tough loose-on-the-lead older horse from South America, and finishing well clear of the third horse, he has run out of obstacles and there are no more negatives for him to outweigh, such as not changing leads. He sure laid that one to rest. Of course, he still has to travel to America and defeat far better horses than he has been facing, but you can also say those so-called “better” horses very well have to defeat a far better horse than they have been facing. What is amazing about his pedigree is that his dam was a stakes-winning sprinter; his second dam was a stakes-winning sprinter; his third dam was a stakes-winning sprinter who was by a stakes-winning sprinter; and his fourth dam was an unraced daughter of a stakes-winning sprinter. But the versatility in his sire’s family is nothing short of remarkable. Real Steele finished second in all three legs of the Japanese Triple Crown; Real Steele’s sire Deep Impact won the Japanese Triple Crown and the Japan Cup; and Deep Impact’s sire Sunday Silence won the first two legs of the American Triple Crown. Also, Real Steele’s tail-female family traces to the amazing Prove Out, who upset Hall of Famers Secretariat, Riva Ridge, Cougar II, and Forego at distances of seven furlongs (in track-record time), 1 ½ miles, and two miles. Prove Out’s daughter Pasadoble produced Real Steele’s third dam, the back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Miesque. So Forever Young’s pedigree excels at distances ranging from six furlongs to two miles. He has now won three straight races in three different countries. Is it time to start wondering if there is anything this horse can’t do?
4—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
We share a great deal about Thoro-Graph numbers in this week’s Knocking on the Door and its history in the Kentucky Derby. Most of you are well aware by now that Catching Freedom received a 97 Beyer in the Louisiana Derby, which is a 10-point jump from his career-high number in his previous start. His Thoro-Graph number of “4 ¾” was also his career-high, but his progression has been in small increments, with his previous high a “6” in the Risen Star. If you want to know where that “4 ¾” leaves him going into the Derby it is in Knocking on the Door. Briefly, if you go by history it is going to take a much bigger jump than he’s been making to put him in Derby-winning range. If you want to look at the non-speed figure positives and negatives from the Louisiana Derby, he did close his final three-sixteenths in an extremely fast :18 flat and ran a much more professional race with new rider Flavien Prat taking him back to last and making a big wide move away from traffic. But it also must be noted that runner-up Honor Marie ran basically the same closing fraction as Catching Freedom and also rallied wide, and the first seven finishers were separated by only 4 ¼ lengths. But give Catching Freedom credit for doing something he’d ever done before, which is to out-close one of the two strongest closers on the Derby trail. So it’s difficult to get a good gauge on the dynamics of the race. In summation, this has not been a fast group of 3-year-olds as a whole, so I don’t know how fast you will have to run to win the Derby. What I do know is that this is as honest a horse as you’ll find, who always runs his race, even being ridden by four different jockeys in five starts, and has never regressed in his speed figures.
5—Deterministic (Christophe Clement, Liam’s Map – Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown)
Right now there are a great many handicappers trying to figure out how to beat Fierceness on the first Saturday in May. The key may be pretty simple – go with what you don’t know more than what you do know. We thought we knew Timberlake, Conquest Warrior, Track Phantom, and Liberal Arts. We think we know Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Domestic Product. And we think we’ll find out if we know Sierra Leone and Dornoch. But what do we really know about Deterministic, Just a Touch, and Tuscan Sky, who are running this weekend having had only two lifetime starts? Maybe one them is a budding star just waiting to bust out with a monster performance and put themselves in the same breath as Fierceness. Anyone who has seen Deterministic’s two races are aware what feats he capable of performing and what he has achieved with so little experience and mileage under him. His sire and broodmare sire might give one cause for concern about how far he wants to go and the Wood Memorial over the deep Aqueduct track should help address that concern. If he repeats his Gotham victory and shows that same kind of agility and professionalism then we can start getting excited that a star has been born. He took a small step in that direction turning in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 over the deep Payson Park surface.
6—Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit)
Just as Deterministic has unfamiliarity going for him and the possibility of a major star emerging, so does this colt, only more so in some ways. First off, we have no idea how good he is on a fast track, with both his starts being on a sloppy track. Second, his pedigree seems more geared toward stamina. Third, his back-to-back “2 ½” Thoro-Graph numbers is as strong as you’ll see in a horse’s first two career starts. And finally he is a big muscular colt with a huge stride who was born on May 5, so he still has a great deal of room for improvement. Horses like this normally don’t run that fast in their first two starts. If you listen to his jockey Florent Geroux say he wasn’t getting hold of the sloppy track while on his left lead on the turn in the Gotham, then you can only imagine what he will do when he gets on a track he can get hold of. While Deterministic will be the likely favorite in the Wood Memorial, Just a Touch will have to square off against Sierra Leone and Dornoch In the Blue Grass Stakes, as well as his stablemate, the improving Encino. He showed his readiness by working five furlongs in a sharp :59 1/5. David Scanlon, who picked him out as a yearling along with his wife and pinhooked him as a 2-year-old, said he has been a special horse since the day they bought him and has always done things on the track a May foal with his huge stride shouldn’t be able to do. If he passes this stiff a test going two turns for the first time, who knows what we’re dealing with?
7—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
Looking at his Thoro-Graph pattern, everything actually revolves around the one race that is a total throw-out, the Risen Star Stakes, run in a swamp. And that is what makes his second in the Louisiana Derby such a revealing race, even though his “5 ½” Thoro-Graph number does not put him in the historical range of winning the Kentucky Derby, as explained in the Knocking on the Door section below. But here is what he does have going for him and why having only two starts at 3 can be really living on the edge. Last year, his Thoro-Graph pattern was an excellent “11,” “7,” and “5 ½.” Following a three-month layoff he returned in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star, a good prep for the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. But Mother Nature can disrupt even the best of plans, and his inability to get hold of that sloppy a track set him way back, especially with a major Thoro-Graph regression to “10 ¾” and his career-high 92 Beyer to an 80. So with only one shot to make the Kentucky Derby field he needed a huge bounce back performance and speed ratings. He got both with a big stretch run to finish second and a 96 Beyer figure and a “5 ½” Thoro-Graph number. So looking ahead, why is he any different than Catching Freedom in regard to Thoro-Graph? Because he has shown the ability to make over a five-point jump and that probably is fairly close to what he will have to do to win the Derby. But as I have mentioned, everything is relative this year and we won’t have any idea what it should take to win until the final numbers.
8—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
At this time he looks to be the controlling speed in the Blue Grass Stakes, which would obviously make him extremely dangerous and put Sierra Leone at a disadvantage, especially if they draw a small field, which looks likely. Everyone seems to be heading to the more wide-open Wood. What is just as important when it comes to this colt and his prospects for the Kentucky Derby is whether or not he has been able work some of the greenness-related kinks out and if he can finally show some improvement in his speed ratings, especially getting out of that “6” Thoro-Graph rut. This is his last chance to make that big push and put himself in position to win the Derby. What is most attractive about him is his record of two seconds followed by three straight victories, including that odd comeback score against Sierra Leone in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen after ducking in a bouncing off the rail. The Fountain of Youth turned out to be a gift after all the scratches and he was all out to beat a pair of sprinters who came back to be beaten a total of 52 lengths in the Florida Derby. If he is given another gift by being the lone speed on Saturday we’ll see if he can take advantage of it against Sierra Leone, Just a Touch, and Encino and give his fans confidence he will be a factor at Churchill Downs.
9—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
When you expose three of the four favorites, eliminate the winner altogether, and have to move up a 32-1 shot, you know it is a major blow to the Derby Rankings, especially finding major contenders. That was the Arkansas Derby. No, he didn’t come remotely close to duplicating his Southwest Stakes romp, so once again we have to ask if it was the slop and his perfect ground-saving trip that moved him up? He had far from a perfect trip this time on a fast track and really didn’t run a bad race despite getting beat 6 ¾ lengths. He was four-wide around both turns and might have had a little trouble when Liberal Arts came out abruptly on the first turn and just missed hitting him and carrying him out to the middle of the track as he did Imperial Gun. You can see Hernandez looking back after the near hit as if wondering what was going on. Mystik Dan, running much farther back than he likes, had to make up a lot of ground and did put in a good run around the far turn, but couldn’t sustain it. With him being by Goldencents you have to wonder if that came into play in the stretch when he ran evenly, running down a tiring Timberlake for third, but was outrun by longshot Just Steel, who finished well ahead of him. His performance was good enough to still make him a viable contender in the Derby, but with his sire a question mark at 1 ¼ miles it looks as if he will have to get another ground-saving trip and not get caught wide on the turns this time. The talent is there and we have seen what kind of speed figures he is capable of, so he just needs to be closer to the pace and get a good trip.
10—Resilience (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike)
The Wood Memorial looks like a wide-open big field, and his high cruising speed and ability to come from anywhere on the track should help him adjust to any kind of pace. His Beyer numbers haven’t broken an 85, but have improved with every race, and he has run three straight “7 ½” Thoro-Graph numbers, which means he likely is ready to make a big jump, otherwise that 7 ½ is who he is. What is consistent about him is that he has never regressed in five starts. I like what I’ve seen from him and I thought he ran a huge race chasing Track Phantom in the Risen Star coming off an impressive 4 ¼-length maiden score. He is a beautiful mover and runs hard and the Wood could be his breakout race. Mott said his breeze on Saturday was “as good as you can ask for and he arrived at Belmont Park Monday in good order.” Also, he is bred to go long and his only inbreeding is to Halo, which is pure class and stamina. Now, like with the others, we wait for the post positions. You don’t want to draw outside going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct.
11—Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter)
There is nothing new I can say about him and there won’t be until Derby Day when he attempts to win off an eight-week layoff and two 1 1/16-mile races with some of the slowest fractions we have ever seen on the Derby trail. In the Holy Bull and Tampa Bay Derby the average six-furlong fraction was 1:15 1/5, which would be way too slow for even a workout. He also has never topped an 87 Beyer speed figure or a “7” Thoro-Graph number. If he had another race to prepare him for the Derby, as most horses do off the Tampa Bay Derby, I would have him ranked pretty high, mainly because I have liked this horse since his maiden victory and was just waiting for him to get a good solid race with a legitimate pace so he could show what he is capable of. From a visual standpoint I still like everything about him, and he does have plenty of foundation, with two 1 1/8-mile races under him as a 2-year-old and two strong finishes this year. But he has never been given the chance to run fast and all handicapping logic says he would need to in order to be sharp enough at Churchill Downs. When you’ve secured a spot in the Derby early there is the reluctance to tempt fate and run again even when it appears the horse surely needs to. Brown is a master at getting horses to run big off a layoff and he no doubt is convinced he can do so in this case, but I’m not sure if that would apply to the Derby. He is one horse whose works I will be watching closely, but whether they can compensate for the layoff and slow races we’ll just have to see. Let’s just say if he can pull it off it would be historic.
12—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
Although he has not given the impression of a horse who can win the Derby, being a confirmed frontrunner and facing the prospect of having to outrun horses like Fierceness and Dornoch, he is so honest and consistent you have to at least rank him among the contenders. His last two races suggest he is not going to relish the mile and a quarter, as he has not been able to hang on off slow fractions in his last two starts. But he has also shown that he is not going to give up without a fight, and it took two horses who came from the clouds to pass him late in the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles, and he just lost third in the final strides to the lightly raced Tuscan Gold, a horse I would have ranked in the Top 10 if it looked as if he was going to get in. Track Phantom has hit the board in all seven of his starts, every one of them at a mile or longer, so he does have a very strong foundation. If you believe the massive surge forward of all the Beyer figures in the Louisiana Derby then you have to acknowledge his jump to a 94. So, he may not be good enough to win the Derby, but at least he’ll take you on a good ride for a long way.
13—Just Steel, (D. Wayne Lukas, Justify – Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock)
He is the horse who won’t go away. No one has even given him a second thought as a potential Kentucky Derby winner. If you can imagine a graph that looks like the proverbial roller coaster it is his. No matter what Lukas throws at him he keeps coming back for more. What he and his trainer have in common is that neither is aware this is 2024 not the late eighties when horses actually ran. They both love the competition and running often, and if they get hit in the mouth they get up off the ground and go at it again. Did anyone really expect him to run such a strong race in the Arkansas Derby? Not only did he close strongly and was really striding out powerfully at the end, he finished 4 ¼ lengths ahead of Mystik Dan and Timberlake, both of whom had beaten him by eight and 10 lengths, respectively, in their last meeting. This horse was making his 11th lifetime start and running at his sixth different distance. His Thoro-Graph numbers have jumped all over the place, but he had run an excellent “2 ½” on two occasions and his seventh-place finish in the Rebel was not as bad as it looked considering he was five-wide on both turns. Whatever you think his chances are in the Derby it is great having Lukas back there. In all the Derbys I have covered for DRF and Blood-Horse there was no trainer I wanted there more than Lukas.
14—Tuscan Sky (Todd Pletcher, Vino Rosso, South Andros, by Sky Mesa)
Like Deterministic, he will be making only his second career start. But his two Thoro-Graph numbers show a great deal of promise, starting his career with a strong “7 ½” and then improving to a “3 ½” in his virtual match race with Nash going 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds. That already makes him one of the fastest 3-year-olds. Usually in match races if a horse outruns his opponent and gets a clear early lead he wins. In this case, however, Tuscan Sky allowed Nash to open a two- to three-length lead early with an opening quarter in :24 and still ran him down to win by two lengths. Nash then came back to romp by 5 ½ lengths in the one-mile Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park. If Tuscan Sky takes another step forward going nine furlongs off a 95 Beyer and a “3 ½” Thoro-Graph we could see a new star in the making. We have never put a horse in the Rankings off a victory in a three-horse field that was basically a two-horse field. But this is a horse Spendthrift Farm, who stands Vino Rosso, bought at the sales. According to Spendthrift general manager Ned Toffey, he was a solid well-balanced colt with good bone and a strong hip and hind leg and very straightforward and uncomplicated. He showed that professionalism in the allowance race a now it’s time to show ust how talented he is.
15—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
As disappointing as his race was he still has done too much to drop him completely off the Rankings. We saw what Mandaloun did in the Derby coming off a worst performance with the same trainer. But this was everything you don’t want to see from a leading contender. He had been ranked high because his return victory in the Rebel gave us a sense of stability, even with Fierceness crushing him in the Breeders’ Cup. This apparently was a different horse, who had thrived over the winter and looked sensational physically and did what he had to to win against a poor field in the Rebel that saw the second- and third-place finishers run out of the money in their next start. But Timberlake did win the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes with complete authority and looked to be returning to that form. If there was one thing we hoped he had overcome it was his occasional problems settling early in traffic, but he showed that tendency again in the Arkansas Derby, and when he dragged his new jockey Flavien Prat to the lead on the first turn going between Muth and Time For Truth the writing was on the wall, and suddenly we weren’t looking at an ideal Derby horse anymore. This is not what you are looking for in a 20-horse Derby field going 1 ¼ miles for the first time when settling early is so important. He wound up tiring badly in the final furlong, beaten 6 ¾ lengths, and let Just Steel and Mystik Dan blow by him for second and third, as Muth won with authority, messing up the Derby picture even more. Right now it looks like a long road back to the top for him.
16—Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed)
There are two big questions surrounding this horse. First, can he emerge from Baffertland as a Kentucky Derby horse by knocking off the Nysos and Muth leftovers that still contain several dangerous foes who could easily be Derby contenders in their own right. Plus, I’m sure Baffert would relish taking another 100 points away from Churchill Downs’ leaderboard, leaving nothing but beaten horses from the Arkansas and Santa Anita Derbys to continue on to the Kentucky Derby. If there is anyone who can crash this expected Baffert winner’s circle party it is Stronghold, who has never been worse than second in five career starts, is coming off a victory in a rare Baffert-less Sunland Derby, and actually broke his maiden impressively at Churchill Downs against the likes of Resilience and Track Phantom. If he can escape the Santa Anita Derby with even a good solid second-place effort against let’s say Maymun or Imagination it would send him to Churchill Downs with a fairly strong resume as the only Southern California representative. The second question, however, is very important. Can a horse out of a Jimmy Creed mare whose female family is inundated with speed influences have any chance getting a mile and a quarter? It is far from a classic pedigree and you have to wonder how far Ghostzapper, who was a sprinter earlier in his career, can take him. But let’s see first if he can escape the, uh stranglehold, Bob Baffert has on California racing.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Returning to FIERCENESS, for some reason we have a tendency to label horses based on one or two failures or perceived character flaws and forget they are horses, just as we put the label of untrustworthy on Fierceness. He may one day earn that criticism, but right now in his brief career he has proven that to be extremely premature. Let me provide a few examples of labeling. Stay Thirsty was labeled a failure after finishing seventh, beaten 16 lengths, in the Florida Derby and then 12th, beaten over 11 lengths, in the Kentucky Derby. In his next three starts he was a narrowly beaten second in the Belmont Stakes and won the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes. Remember when we labeled Quality Road a basket case who would never get in a starting gate again after he threw the fit of all fits in the gate before the Breeders’ Cup Classic? He returned from his ordeal to win three straight stakes, including the Donn Handicap by 13 lengths in 1:47 2/5. I remember when Holy Bull shocked everyone by finishing sixth, beaten 24 lengths, in the Fountain of Youth at 6-5, then came right back to win the Florida Derby by almost six lengths in 1:47 2/5. In his next start he was labeled one of the biggest Kentucky Derby flops when he finished 12th, beaten 16 lengths, as the 2-1 favorite. In his next start he won the Met Mile by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:33 4/5 on his way to a Hall of Fame career. I only mention these three instances because Fierceness’ grandsires are Stay Thirsty and Quality Road and his third dam is by Holy Bull. Even Quality Road’s sire Elusive Quality was a bust in the Met Mile, finishing eighth, beaten 25 lengths. He won his next two starts and broke the coveted world record for a mile, winning the Poker stakes in 1:31 3/5. So you can say disrespect runs in the family.
Fierceness on his best day looks untouchable. The only thing we have to watch out for in the Derby is the Bellamy Road effect, as anyone can attest to who saw his other-worldly 17 ½-length romp in the Wood Memorial, running the 1 1/8 miles in a record 1:47 flat and earning an unheard of 121 Beyer figure. But in the Derby he chased a hot pace and finished out of the money, with Giacomo, one of the slowest horses in the field on speed figures, winning at odds of 50-1. In short, never assume the Derby is like any other race and don’t be fooled by Fierceness winning easily. His final time, his 13 ½-length margin, and his 110 Beyer figures are what they are and he had to run to accomplish that regardless of how easy it looked. With that said, good luck beating the horse we saw on Saturday in the Derby.
As I mentioned in the intro, we can lump a lot of horses together, either the proven horses in the Derby field right now such as HADES, GRAND MO THE FIRST, CATALYTIC, NO MORE TIME, and WEST SARATOGA, or those who can get in with a big effort on Saturday, such as TUSCAN SKY, ELYSIAN MEADOWS, BE YOU, EPIC RIDE, UNCLE HEAVY, EL GRANDE O, TOP CONOR and SEIZE THE GREY. Although Catalytic and Grand Mo the First were beaten soundly by Fierceness, both showed that they are improving and have a bright future.
And finally there is the one potential serious contender we wrote about last week, TUSCAN GOLD, who is at No. 26 o the points list and needs a number of defections. But watch out for this guy if he gets in. Once he does he shoots right up the Rankings.
If there is one horse the connections have to be proud of it is PANDAGATE. Every time I watch the replay of the UAE Derby my eyes are drawn to him, watching how hard he tried to get third. That competitive spirit is what the Thoroughbred is all about. It is not only about winning, it is about beating whatever horse is around you and he was determined to beat those two horses in front of him that he could see. This powerful long-striding New York-bred showed he belongs with the best, and now his owners will do the right thing and give him time to recover from the hard race and the long journey.
As Adelphi Racing Club managing partner Matt Cutair said, “He was a bit mentally fried after the race. He’s still a bit immature and that was an intense set of new experiences for him, so we definitely want to give him a little time. As of now the plan is to give him two weeks of farm time in Kentucky and then send him to Belmont.”
Handicapping Saturday’s preps, let me go back to when the Daily Racing Form/Morning Telegraph was the only place to get past performances. One of the tools, which is still there, was the Speed Rating and Track Variant. Without taking the time to fully explain it, the higher the Track Variant the slower the track, based on the average time that day in relation to the track record, which would be a 100 Speed Rating and a zero Track Variant. I mention this to tell you something about a horse in Saturday’s Wood Memorial. Just as an example, Catching Freedom’s last three Track Variants were a 12, 14, and 15 and Sierra Leone’s were a 14, 8, and 11, indicating tracks that ranged from moderately fast (8) to average (14 and 15). The Track Variant of UNCLE HEAVY’S four career starts are 30, 33, 52, and 26. So if you are handicapping the Wood, just know that this horse has only run on incredibly slow and deep tracks. We have no idea what he is capable of on a true fast track. What we do know is that he is a dead-fit horse, who is coming off a career-high 84 Beyer figure while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles and beating one of the toughest horses on the Derby trail, EL GRANDE O. The Wood will tell us how fast and classy he is.
The Wood actually is full of new names, such as LAT LONG, arguably the most accomplished (Future Wager) 468-1 shot of all time from Kenny McPeek’s barn, and last-out winners from all over, SOCIETY MAN, EVENING NEWS, and LONESOME BOY.
Since Week 1 we have been throwing a lot of Thoro-Graph numbers at you, mainly because they (and Ragozin) are so far advanced, supplying so much more data than the standard speed ratings that deal with pure speed only. That is why the Sheets, as they call them, are so expensive and used by horsemen and jockey’s agents, as well as many of big-money bettors.
To some of you these numbers might not register as to what is fast and slow and what kind of patterns and cycles to look for. So to help, I am not only giving you the numbers and analyzing the patterns to see who is moving forward or regressing and what to expect in their next race, I am now going to give you an idea what it takes to win the Derby with a little history lesson.
We have mentioned some of the Thoro-Graph numbers from the Louisiana Derby and alluded to the fact they were not very fast for a final Derby prep with numbers ranging from “4 ½” to “7 ½,” with obviously 4 ½ being the fastest by Tuscan Gold due to his ground loss. To compare those numbers and the numbers to come from this past week and next week, here is a little history.
In the past 20 years, 11 Derbys have been won with a negative number, with Big Brown having the fastest number at “negative-4 ¾” and American Pharoah at “negative-3.” The slowest winning number has been a “1 ½” shared by longshots Rich Strike, Medina Spirit, and Super Saver. So far, only two horses – Mystik Dan and Forever Young – have run faster than the slowest winning number. Of course, that will change when the latest Thoro-Graph figures come out.
Now, what about the final prep and how much of an improvement should we expect, especially looking at that 4 ½ to 7 range of the Louisiana Derby? In the past 20 years only two Derby winners have gone into the race off a Thoro-Graph number slower than a 3 ½, and they were 80-1 Rich Strike off an unheard of “9 ¾” on a synthetic track and 50-1 Giacomo off a “5.” So that is the company any of the first four finishers of the Louisiana Derby would join if they won the Derby. We will have to wait for the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby numbers.
This is not meant as a kiss of death for the Louisiana Derby horses, who did get Beyer figures of 95 to 97. That certainly puts them in a position to win. We are just sharing what they have to overcome on Thoro-Graph considering we use those numbers so often. It’s all about which ones you follow.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Full disclosure. I’m on Just a Touch. I think he improves again and could be 8-1. Belmont winner as well.
Has week 12 surfaced?
Chad Brown has assigned Irad Ortiz, Jr. to pilot Domestic Product in the Derby.
Waiting to learn who is taking the mount of Resilience
…
CDI Files Motion To Dismiss Zedan’s Derby Lawsuit… apparently Muth will be allowed to compete in the Derby?????
Nelson, CDI filed the motion to dismiss one hour before the hearing on the Zedan injunction.
Sounds like the hearing on the CDI motion is scheduled for 15th.
I do not understand legalize but it sounds like there will be depositions, testimony the Judge will accept before the 15th.
He mentioned time constraints that he did not want to be in court on the 26th at midnight deciding that Muth can run in the Derby and needing to be at CDI on the 27th.
I am guessing the motion to dismiss will be heard first then the injunction heard right after.
This madness is it not?
CDI contends it would not be fair to deny a horse that already is in to open a slot for Muth. I think if I were an owner of a horse that earned a slot was bumped for Zedan’s horse I would be highly upset. But then what do I know.
Zedan had every chance to change barns prior.
Lynda, Mr Zedan’s is upset too !!! He has 100 reasons to be!!!
Here we go. He’s going to be disappointed……again! Did anyone prevent him from changing barns?
Frankie Dettori is still available. Hopefully, Mott will pick up the phone and ask Dettori if he’s interested in riding Resilience.
Frankie would be a good choice, but I’ve got a feeling Mott will give the mount to his stable rider, Junior Alvarado.
Just posted on drf: Risen Star Beyer figures increased by 5 points, so Sierra Leone now has 95 for the race; Resilience and Catching Freedom also got the 5 point boost, for those who follow speed figs!
Didn’t I say yesterday, “Wait for the revisions”? LOL
Yes, you did!!!
It really is laughable. This from the DRF story:
>>> In explaining the upgraded Risen Star figure, Andrew Beyer said, “The Fair Grounds track was sloppy on Feb. 17, and may have been getting slower when the Risen Star was run. Moreover, the pace of the Risen Star was slow enough to hinder horses from running a fast final time.
“The subsequent performances of horses in the field demonstrated that our initial figure was too low,” he added. “Three of the top five finishers all came back to win important stakes, and all five of these horses earned speed figures five or more points higher than their published numbers for the Risen Star.” <<<
Utterly nonsensical.
Text book example of a subjective type of metrics … what is the time horizon for those kind of “revisions”?… i.e. if Resilience wins the BC Classic they will then add 10 points to his Wood Memorial Beyer?????
There must be a better way to normalize final times…
Just a bit of trivia.
Eclipse was born during and named for the eclipse that took place 260 years ago on April 01, 1764.
As written by David Alexander in the first chapter of “A Sound of Horses” I got for Christmas as an 11-year-old. Maybe my favorite Christmas gift of all time. Certainly the most beloved.
(I got to see the full eclipse and corona, inspite of significant cloud cover here on Lake Ontario. It was wonderful!)
Cloudy skies were forecast here but cleared around lunchtime.
80% totality here. The one in 2017 was almost 100% totality and very dramatic.
Somewhat strange phenomena in photos and videos from north of Atlanta, 2 flying unknown objects flying in front of sun. Our local meteorologist guru says images were not weather balloons or airplanes. My thought is that they were the alien invasion that was expected and they changed their mind, LOL.
No, Linda. the alien invasion happened years ago. They are among us. Just act like you don’t know, and you’ll be okay.
HA, HA, HA!
Well I could be one. My Dad use to tell me that the stork did not not bring me, that he found me in a ditch.
You are so funny Winston, love your sense of humor.
You’re too kind, Lynda. I’m told by some that I’m an acquired taste…like stinky tofu. Anyway, the stork brings ALL of us. It just lost the grip in your case.
LOL, there is more truth to the stork dropping me than you realize.
My Mom was wearing high heels and tripped on the street curb and fell flat on her stomach be fore I was born.
That and being struck by lightning in my Dad’s hayfield have always been my excuses for my kooky behavior.
The makings of a film script!
Fierceness closed as the 5-2 favorite in the final Kentucky Derby Future Pool. At first, I thought that was crazy. That he would probably be 5-2 on Derby Day. Afterall, American Pharoah went off at 5-2 in his Derby if I remember correctly. However, the more that I think about it, the more that I can see him going lower. Even in a 20-horse Derby. I know some people hate it when we start talking numbers, but like it or not, Fierceness stands tall on numbers. REAL TALL. The BSF is probably the most popular because it’s free and right there in front of you when you are perusing your Form. All other runners pale in comparison to Fierceness’ 110BSF earned in the Florida Derby. The Todd Pletcher trainee will take plenty of money. Could be tough to beat.
Call me crazy, I won’t be using him. For several reasons that I will keep to myself so as not to offend anyone. I’ll choose between 2 other horses that I’ve been watching. It could come down to a coin flip or better yet, what Steve Haskin has to say in his final Derby column.
IMO, the Derby is the toughest race in America to hit with it’s 20-horse field and horses coming from everywhere. I lose more often than I win. Much more. But when I win, it is the sweetest win of the year and usually leads to a winning year. Fingers crossed.
Interesting comparison. Fierceness earned a triple-digit BSF in a 2yo G1 race and exceeded it in a 3yo G1 race. The last horse to do the same was American Pharoah!
Excellent observation, Winston!
Going outside now. It’s getting dark here on the edge of Lake Ontario, but I don’t think it’s the eclipse. The clouds are rolling in just at the wrong time. At least the place I’m staying has a great restaurant.
I’d say that YOU had the best observation. 😉
Lol, love the amount of credit you give us, Tommy. Afraid some of us may be offended by your Derby picks? That’s next level snowflake.
Why would your reasons for not using Fierceness be deemed offensive. I will not be using the colt as well and I can provide a ton of reasons I consider valid and supported by historic trends.
I find it amazing why folks who disagree with opinions take offense instead of engaging to get a better understanding of what influences opinions.
Well said.
“What exactly was done to Fierceness to influence such a performance? That should have been the question and not the rush to assign superstar status to the colt.
Fierceness returned in the Holy Bull and was beaten by a last out AOC winner and finished behind an opponent who was beaten by 16 1/4L in the Remen.
The fans of the colt were left perplexed, and one has to question why? There was nothing normal about the BCJ result and Fierceness’s performance in the Holy Bull is clear indication of this.”
Your assessment of Fierceness prior to the Florida Derby. It’s obvious you’re not a big fan of the colt. I realize that your preference is longshots. However, not all favorites are created equally. As for the example of losing to a last out AOC winner……sometimes, one stumble, a couple of hard bumps and not being fit can lead to disappointment.
I appreciate your submission.
I place all of TP’s horses in same bucket. None are running naturally and that includes Fierceness.
It’s only a matter of time before Fierceness flames out and is rushed into retirement.
How many of TP’s previous 7 FL Derby winner have won the KD?
Scatt Daddy – 18th in KD retired.
Constitution – Didn’t Contest the KD (won 1 of 5 races thereafter)
Materiality – 7th KD (Finished 8th in Belmont retired)
Audible – 3rd KD (won 1 of 4 races thereafter)
Known Agenda – 8th in KD (4th in Belmont retired)
Always Dreaming – 1st in KD (Didn’t win 4 races thereafter – retired)
Forte – Didn’t Contest the KD (won 1 of 3 races thereafter -retired)
I recall only one. Always Dreaming won the FL Derby by 6L in 1:47.47. He was the post time favorite in the KD by $0.10 over Irish War Cry. He would have been soundly beaten by Classic Empire in not for that colt’s misfortune.
Always Dreaming never won another race. He was never as good as his 1:47.47. Just a Fierceness is not as good as his 1:48.22 pulling a bus suggest.
Consider the following. Arrogate won the 2017 Pegasus WC in a NTR of 1:46.83. If Fierceness was ridden out in the FL Derby, he probably would have shattered Arrogates record. Is Fierceness in the same league as Arrogate?
I have seen these performances from TP horses before. I wouldn’t’ wager fierceness with my worst enemy’s money.
Known Agenda won the FL Derby and was assigned an Equibase figure of 111. HE finished amongst the also ran. Fierceness was far more impressive and was assigned a 110 for his win.
Fierceness will be 4/5 in the KD emerging from a barn that has been represented by 64 starters in 24 KDs with 2 lucky winner that never won another race.
Given the above I have no confidence that this colt will not rise to the occasion and if he does, I lose.
CP- agree full heartedly! TP must be a great salesman to have gullible owners spend 50 -75 million plus over the years for those results. People believe in TP at the KD? LOL
I am not a big fan of program trainers. However, each horse is an individual that merits consideration regardless of who the trainer is. Last I checked, trainers do the training and horses do the running….. 🙂
For that reason, said horse is not a toss until final determination is made during post parade and warm ups.
CBS 60 Minutes recently had a segment on Indian Relay Racing in the USA.
You can find the segment on You Tube.
They are trying to get an exhibition race at the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Thoroughbreds were mentioned. The tribal representatives travel to Kentucky now and purchase Thoroughbreds because they are so fast at the sprint distance.
For those of you that have Facebook, there was a great article this morning by the man who owns Tamarack Hill Farm (that is the name of the page) about OTTB Thoroughbreds and showcases a racing magazine cover with a photo and story on Sierra Leone.
There is some good press out there about Thoroughbreds, just have look in the right places.
If you haven’t seen it and ever get a chance, see For the Love of Mike, a 1960 movie filmed in Mexico. It has a climactic horse race at a fair, a heartwarming story and great scenery and music.
Thank You! I will look for it.
Can’t wait for week 12!
I’m a big fan of Honor Marie and anyone else noticed in his last race when he was striding neck to neck with Catching Freedom at the straight away after the turn. I noticed HM was responding fine with the whip on the right but as soon as the jockey switched to the left whip HM looked like he freaked out by it and slowed his momentum.
Liberal Arts not only needs to win the Lexington to get into the Derby, but he’ll need a couple of dropouts as well. Which is possible. We usually see a few people come to their senses or other factors. For instance, is Deterministic really going to run in the Derby after his poor run in the Wood on Saturday?
Whatever, I’m really looking forward to this year’s Derby.
I was looking at the wagering menu that Churchill will be offering on Oaks and Derby Days, and it’s crazy. Besides the rolling doubles and pick-3s, there will be a pick-4, pick-5, or pick-6 starting in almost every race. Choose wisely or your bankroll will surely take a hit. 13 races on Friday and 14 races on Saturday. Be sure to put some cash aside for the Derby which is the 12th race on Saturday. The 25th race into the 2-day extravaganza.
After the latest Derby preps and in advance of Steve’s Week 12 rankings, I am submitting my current Derby Dozen.
DERBY DEW’S DOZEN
1) Forever Young
2) Sierra Leone
3) Fierceness
4) Catching Freedom
5) Just a Touch
6) Honor Marie
7) Resilience
8) Endlessly
9) Stronghold
10) Dornoch
11) Mystic Dan
12) Catalytic
NOTE: If Tuscan Gold were to somehow find his way into the starting gate, he would be my No. 1. I believe that he will be contending for an Eclipse award by year’s end.
If only Chad Brown had kept Tuscan Gold home and run in the Florida Derby, he would have most likely have run 2nd and got 50 pts. I’m still puzzled as to why he was shipped to Louisiana?
This is a very good point. Tuscan Gold won at Gulfstream and Dornoch was never going to run in that race. Staying there, he runs second.
Sorry for the above post. I’m in a “woulda, coulda, shoulda mood today. In hindsight, the Florida Derby did have Hades and Conquest Warrior as serious contenders and perhaps that entered Chad Brown’s decision.
Okay, now that I got that out of my system, I’ve got to get ready for the Eclipse Party this afternoon. Don’t forget to wear your shades everyone. Enjoy the event.
It’s interesting that Brown has never had a horse in the Florida Derby.
Dewey, I also have Forever Young as my top choice.
I’m happy to see Forever Young in the derby. Hopefully he gets a better trip in the derby. He over came two wide turns in the uae. He cannot afford to do that in the derby.
The trip, in addition to the start, is the crucial factor for all in the Derby. That’s what makes it so difficult to handicap this race. Almost everyone that is not on the front end early is going to get their bumps and tight spots during the race.
As we all know, because of beaucoup excuses, the best horse doesn’t always win.
Welcome to the club, John.
I was first attracted to Forever Young when Steve mentioned him in his Knocking on the Door comments in Week 1.
I looked up his record (3 for 3) and watched a couple of his Japan videos. I liked what I saw and then examined his pedigree and was pleased to see that my favorite horse of all time, Sunday Silence was in his paternal lineage. Forever Young has a good blend of speed and stamina plus the factor to pull it all together….. HEART. He has the will to win which is so important to overcoming obstacles during a race as he exibited in his two winning efforts in the Middle East.
And, finally, I just plain like the name….. FOREVER YOUNG. Can’t wait to see him arrive at Churchill so he can adapt and get a couple of works in.
Of the 12 comprising your list. Which has exhibited the capacity to overcome adversities in a 20-entrant field?
In a 20-horse field, none. Yet, a few have demonstrated athleticism intelligence and determination in a will to win the race. Forever Young is one of them. Also, don’t underestimate jockey Reisue Sakai. I like the way he rides and he has the experience of riding in the Derby last year.
I find your top choice interesting.
Forever Young’s best opponents in the Saudi and UAE Derby will not be contesting the KD. I am sure we can agree he didn’t overwhelm both runners-ups in either race.
The only entrant in the Saudi and UAE Derby that closed with interest was Forever Young. His late race performance is that of a grinder. There was no noticeable turn of foot, but rather a sustained run whilst maintaining a decent pace per furlong.
The only obstacle Forever Young overcome was the gap to be erased to get in front at the line. A 20 entrant KD field can present unforeseen challenges for an entrant with a grinding running style will likely not overcome.
Given Sierra Leone’s explosive turn of foot. It is unlikely that Forever Young with his grinding style, will be able to find extra to repel him, should he be ahead of the Chad Brown charge in the lane.
Further, should Sierra Leone get the jump on Forever Young and is ahead in the lane. A grinder is unlikely to run by Sierra Leone given his explosive late race pace.
Kindly do not view my submission as an attempt to get you off your top choice. I am merely highlighting what I consider to be pertinent factors that I would be inclined to considered before ranking Forever Young ahead of Sierra Leone.
I have kindly reviewed your comments, Counter Point san, and take no offense. Your points are well taken but seem to be presented with the premise of Sierra Leone having the perfect trip. Both horses, we can agree, are not expected to attend the pace and therefore a troubled trip may develop for one or both. Forever Young has demonstrated the ability to manuever out of bad trips and be first under the wire. That’s good enough for me.
May the winds be favorable under your sails, oh wise one. Old Japanese saying, I tink.
Leonard & Steve, please delete my post from yesterday that is on hold pending moderation.
Thank you!
Winx’s filly sells for 10 million to Debbie Kepetis and Woppitt Bloodstock.
She will stay in Australia and be trained by Chris Waller.
Ms Kepetis is part of the Winx ownership group.
Sure hope this filly will love to run like her mom.
Emily Bushnell is the owner of Resilience, recent winner of the Wood Memorial. She’s the daughter of Pam and Martin Wygod, who bred their mare, Meadowsweet to the current leading sire, Into Mischief. The Wygod’s owned Tranquility Lake, and bred her to Smart Strike, which resulted in the birth of Meadowsweet.
There’s an interesting back story on Pam and Martin Wygod, and their daughter Emily on another site, but out of respect to Mr. Haskin, I will not name the site.
Getting back to Resilience’s sire, Into Mischief, it’s not hard to understand why he commands a stud fee of $250K for Spendthrift Farm. His current runners have been very impressive, winning graded races, not only in this country, but in Dubai as well.
In addition to Resilience, Into Mischief has sired the following current winners:
Leslie’s Rose, winner of the G1 Ashland
Laurel River, winner of the Dubai World Cup
Newgate, winner of the G1 Santa Anita Handicap
Imagination, winner of the G2 San Felipe/2nd in the G1 SA Derby
Timberlake, winner of the G2 Rebel Stakes
I expect a strong showing by Resilience moving forward to the Kentucky Derby, however, it will be interesting to see which rider William Mott will select as a replacement for John Velazquez who is committed to ride Fierceness in the Derby. Stay tuned for that announcement.
The following are the last jockeys of the Derby entry.
Horse Last Jockey
1 Sierra Leone Tyler Gaffalione
2 Fierceness John Velazquez
3 Catching Freedom Flavian Prat
4 Stronghold Antonio Fresu
5 Forever Young Sakai Ryusei
6 Resilience John Velazquez
7 Endlessly Umberto Rispoli
8 Dornoch Luis Saez
9 Just a Touch Florent Geroux
10 Track Phantom Joel Rosario
11 West Saratoga Jesus Lopez Castanon
12 Just Steel Keith J. Asmussen
13 Honor Marie Ben Curtis
14 Domestic Product Tyler Gaffalione
15 Catalytic Julien R. Leparoux
16 Society Man Luis Rivera Jr.
17 Deterministic Joel Rosario
18 Mystik Dan Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
19 No More Time Javier Castellano
20 T O Password Katsuma Sameshima
21 Grand Mo the First Emisael Jaramillo
22 Common Defense Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
23 El Grande O Kendrick Carmouche
24 Hades Paco Lopez
Not only Resilience will need a new Jockey but also Domestic Product who had Tyler Gaffalione (Sierra Leone pilot) for his Tampa Bay win. Also, if Deterministic goes then Joel Rosario has to decide between him and Track Phantom.
Thanks for providing the list of Jockeys.
It appears that Irad Ortiz Jr. may be available to ride Resilience. He would be a great fit, IMO.
Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. was a superb society with Elite Power… Irad might win his first Derby and help Mott also win the proper way…
Yes, good post Nelson, thank you!
Edit: Epic Ride is above Hades and El Grande O with 35 point vs. 30
Stand. Horse ………. Points… Stks. Earn. Total Earn. Trainer Owner
23……….. Epic Ride ……..35…… $198,654…… $253,166 John Ennis F. W. Hertrich
I missed Epic Ride’s 3rd in the Wood Memorial guided by Adam Beschizza….
Digging into Resilience’s pedigree, he has six “Reines-De-Course” mares in his first four generations, on his dam side. Reines-De-Course mares can be described as “elite producers of elite racehorses.”
Bottom line, with an abundance of class and stamina on his dam side, and sired by leading sire, Into Mischief, Resilience could move on and capture this year’s Kentucky Derby. Granted, he’ll have to beat the likes of Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Forever Young and the rest of the Derby field, but I believe he has to be considered one of the top contenders. Just my opinion.
Honor Marie first work since last race posted 47.8 4f workout at Churchill. He really loves Churchill. Sounds like he is as ready as ever for the derby.
The astute post of Zanytactics (on April 7, 2024 at 3:54 pm) below promted me to post some thoughts about the indiscriminate use of speed ratings by some analysts.
I understand handicappers largely employing speed figures to underpin their selections. It is a way to quickly justify their favorites without expanding too much on the many other factors impacting the outcome of a race…
Just to be clear, the majority of commentators and handicappers enrich their analysis by including many other elements and barely resorting solely to speed ratings to make a strong case for their choices.
Speed ratings are just attempts to normalize running times and will never measure important traits like the horse’s will to win, how much is “left in the tank” after a win or good effort, or how much a rough trip affected their performance.
Speed figures might be useful for finding trends in form but it is still very tough to predict how much faster or slower any given horse will be in his next races. Guessing how many lengths a horse might improve or lose next out has proven to be as difficult as rewarding.
How good a horse might be? Will he be even better the farther he goes? These are two questions for all the Derby contenders that their best speed ratings are not able to answer.
Having access to replays and videos of workouts is a great advantage these days. An in-depth analysis of these resources would greatly aid in making sense of the various speed ratings populating the past performances.
Hey Nelson: I posted the Beyer figs because they are one of the first indicators of overall speed. I’ve learned they are suspect — if only because Steve is not a fan. As a casual fan who doesn’t bet much, I like to use them as an indicator of whether a horse is peaking or getting slower, much as Steve uses ThoroGraph. Let the opinion onslaught begin!
No problem with your approach Ms Blacktype …my point is that I heard some commentators and handicappers who use them ad nauseam…. but I have to consider that they do it for commercial reasons which is OK by me… I would do it too… but as a way to complement a more thorough analysis.
Anyway, I just found Zanytactics post stimulating to point out that aspect who is a bit bothering sometimes…
*aspect WHICH bothers me sometimes…
Got it. They sometimes annoy me when it’s clear the three guys who make them are clearly buffaloed by what the algorithm is telling them..
Each race is a singular event run under specific conditions at a particular time and place which can not be duplicated tomorrow, next week or next month.
Let’s use Fierceness as an example. His Champagne Stakes effort was a fiasco from the word go. Most “handicappers” looked at the Beyer figures and made him an overlay in the BCJ.
I don’t need speed figures to tell me how Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Stronghold and Just a Touch performed leading up to the KD, because each race had many variables to determine the outcome.
For a variety of reasons, final times can be very misleading.
Ditto!
Absolutely Zanytactics… even more misleading when we try to use them to compare outcomes of races on turf and sloppy tracks…
Nelson, for me eye test is more reliable. How many instances has a horse won with triple buyers in Derby preps and fails to fire on 1st Sat. in May?
I think that most handicappers looked at Fierceness’s Champagne and just saw a bad effort regardless of the obvious poor BSF.
Rather, Beyers.
In comments, I tend not to name products/books which could help explain some things pointed in the above post. There is a book by James Quinn “Class of the Field” that could help someone who wants to get deep down into handicapping.
Of course, there are times when for one reason or another a horse may not perform to expectations.
Nelson, when I played races — for decades – from coast to coast, I had almost no use for speed figures. My handicapping was comprehensive, derived and refined for my purposes from “Ainslie’s Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing.” Now I only follow the derby trail races and the derby.
My method for the preps are generally the same as any other race, but the Kentucky Derby is a special thing for me. In addition to an overall look at the traditional handicapping factors, I have at least a dozen derby “angles” drawn from the contemporary race history. Two of those 12 or more angles are about speed figures (the figure of my choice is Brisnet). One relates to whether there was an excessive improvement or regression from the next-to-last prep to the last prep. The other is the figure earned in the final prep. A horse that doesn’t qualify on one or the other isn’t necessarily eliminated from consideration.
Once I calculate a weighted rating for all runners from all of the angles, I narrow the comprehensive final handicapping to five or six horses. I do this because, well, it’s fun!
Latest update on Deposition from David Grening at DRF earlier today:
Uriah St. Lewis was on his way to pick up Deposition from the Ruffian Clinic. Said the horse is a little body sore but all tests came back negative so everything appears to be OK. St. Lewis said jockey Dexter Haddock is also a little body sore but OK. Should ride Monday at Parx.
I am so very thankful to see this update and that Deposition’s and Dexter’s Guardian Angels were with both of them.
Hallelujah!
TY TY TY.
Thank you for the information. I too am very happy to hear that.
Irad Ortiz will take over for Tyler G on Liberal Arts in the Lexington as they try to get the points to get into the Derby. I hope the horse makes it.
Howling Time shows up for sale earlier on that Lexington Day card.
A win for Liberal Arts will not be good enough. He will need some defections for the list that has already qualified….
I think I’ll use the two favorites Fierceness and Sierra Leone…and include Stronghold and Honor Marie…..I cannot use them all, the two favorites look formidable—I like Honor Marie and Stronghold, the latter had a terrific work, in preparation for the SA Derby, and he is a sturdy built horse–that’s important ..
Wouldn’t bet the house on Fierceness and I would take Catching Freedom over Honor Marie…. Stronghold is an up and comer … Sierra Leone always there.
Gotcha ….I know Catching Freedom beat him but—- he will be much lower in odds, I’m using the two favorites and need some big odds! Honor Marie’s best performance…the one where he came home in under :30 seconds last 5/16 and galloped out twenty lengths clear—was at Churchill Downs….
And I won’t be betting the house on Fierceness, I don’t play favorites except for trifectas…. I’ll be betting Honor Marie across the board, and a smaller but likewise wager on Stronghold, who has developed into a serious racehorse …
In that case he maybe be a horse for the course !!! Problem with a horse that is a closer is they need a clean trip and the timing issue in the race. You probably remember Eddie Delahoussaye he was one of the best at that.
On 2nd thought maybe you are better off with Honor Marie …. You never know if Prat will think Catching Freedom should be a front runner that day !!! (LOL)
Well I know their plan was to be close to the pace, maybe they have a new plan!
Beyer for Sierra Leone is 98. Not 110, but sharper than the winners of the other preps.
Buyers translate little.
Last I checked…..Andy Beyer has only picked TWO KD winners in the past 18 editions.
Prior to the Racing Form’s inclusion of BSFs in the early 90’s, most astute handicappers did their homework to pick winners. The modern day “handicappers” are very dependent on speed figures especially BSFs. The formula leaves out many variables which in turn can be misleading to a horse’s abilities/performance.
Yes and he stated Zenyatta was slow. Lol
Beyers.
I just was reviewing that Beyer comment on Zenyatta, I agree Mike and Zany. Andy was so wrong on Zenyatta, anyhow I typically look at BSF to eliminate horses but not to pick winners. Mike made a comment and I agree that he uses his eyeballs to pick winners. I do the same mostly…
Thanks Jeff!
My eyes say Sierra over Fierceness but I don’t like either trainer in the KD….
Agree! Don’t like either trainer. However,Sierra is the better horse.
Many are aware that Winx’s only foal, an 18 month old filly by Pierro will be sold at auction on Tuesday.
John Stewart, principle in the recently formed Resolute Racing after the acquisition of the Shadwell Farm, has stated that he is wiling to go to 9 million in AUD which is 5,923 in USD to purchase the filly.
I listened to interviews with Winx’s owners about the filly. It was a bit disheartening to hear that Winx’s first foal by I Am Invincible, also a filly, was stillborn and difficult birthing for Winx. There were foaling complications that left Winx very ill and her owners fearing for her life as it was touch and go for her.
It has just been announced that Winx is in foal to Snitzel due to arrive late this spring. Snitzel has always been on the owners short list as a potential mating with Winx and the decision was made to breed her to him this time because of the stallion’s age.
Tiddlywinx as the filly is affectionately called is lovely and is a mini me of her Mum.
Should Mr Stewart succeed in acquiring Tiddlywinx and bring her to his farm in Kentucky, I hope he is prepared for an onslaught of American Winx fans who would love the opportunity to see the filly up close and personal.
She is indeed “racing royalty”.
A 53 year old man rode at Keeneland Friday, then flew out to Santa Anita to ride 11 races and won six in a row….is back at Keeneland today…
He probably needs the FF miles.
LOL
Mr. Nelson,
You might recognize the statement below as it was submitted from your keyboard in response to a statement, I made regarding what could appear as an abusive race schedule for Deposition.
“Some people appear to have NO IDEA of what animal abuse is… and to make things worse they believe that their opinions are “facts”
Your statement represents an indictment of my capacity to either assess or recognize scenarios in which potential abuse exists in relation to thoroughbreds. I hardly believe your statement was spontaneous in nature but rather well thought out and deemed a valid and reasonable conclusion. However, when a statement is divorced from its context, there is bound to be a misinterpretation of said statement.
I am taking this opportunity to enlighten you as to my perspective on abuse as it relates to thoroughbreds.
Tongue Tie –
I consider the above an abusive act. The sight of a horse’s tongue hanging out its mouth is nothing short of disgusting. The discomfort the animal must be experiencing while its tongue is tied is unimaginable. The fact that it is a tolerable form of abuse by the wider trainers’ community, doesn’t make it any less abusive.
Use of Crops –
I consider the excessive and/or misuse of the of the above accessory an abuse of the thoroughbred. Many rules have been implemented accompanied by sanctions to protect thoroughbreds from this form of abuse.
Race Day/Breezing Medication –
I consider the administration of race day and exercise related medication as an abusive act. The piercing of the animal’s skin/coat with a sharp object to deposit Lasix directly into its bloodstream wouldn’t be an act a horse would be in agreement.
There is the initial pain at the puncture site; followed by excessive urination that results in a depletion of electrolyte levels.
The race day medication abuse is viewed by the wider trainer’s community as beneficial abuse. The reduction in Blood Pressure and decrease in Pulmonary Hemorrhaging is the rationale for the administration of Lasix. It appears there are no concerns regarding bleeding for graded stakes and 2YO races that prohibits administration of the RDM.
Absence of Best Practices:
I consider the absence of widely recognized best practices as a potential for abuse. Whilst best practices will vary from barn to barn, there are common denominators i.e., Something such as a feature or quality that is shared by all the members of a group.
If you can set aside the contempt that you might presently be harboring for me. I am fairly certain that you will agree that a young horse that is being defeated by wide margins, on its assessed preferred surface. Needs more time for development to be competitive.
An aggressive race schedule for such a horse with short recovery periods between, in no way represents best practice. It does nothing for the horse’s confidence and runs counter to its development.
A young horse and particularly a May foal that has been defeated by a combined 32L in its previous 3 races and the breaks it maiden in a pedestrian time, is signaling that it is being misused. One of the definitions for abuse is ‘misuse’.
After 3 races in one month, Deposition was given 30 days off and returned to finish last whilst suffering yet another wide margin defeat. There are no positives to be extracted from the results of such a sequence of races.
The above is the contest associated with my statement. You might evaluate the same set of facts and determine that they do not rise to the level of misuse. But does your conclusion make you honorable and my conclusion make me dishonorable?
Perspectives will always differ and that’s why context matters. I am not an uninformed self-absorbed individual who is inclined to be controversial. Your disagreement with my perspective doesn’t make your perspective superseding.
We can agree to disagree, just as we can find common ground. I am not offended by your comments but rather a bit disappointed. I am always open for engagement on issues of disagreement.
Why do you continue to support a sport/industry in which abuse is institutionalized? You should be working to put an end to horse racing. You write in opposition to tongue ties, crops, and medications but fail to see that any form of racing is inherently abusive. With your wagers and online chatter, you help to maintain the thing you oppose. I respectively suggest that you stop wagering on races (the takeout!) and discussing the races on Internet sites.
Tell you what, a few on a another site,one which is mostly cesspool needs banned for good.
I detect a lot of anger and venom in your submission. Be not quick to anger for anger resides in the lap of the foolish. [Ecclesiastes 7:9]
I am not sure how to best respond to your question and the comments that followed. Consequently, I am providing an extract from the Serenity Prayer. See Below:
God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.
My submission was not intended to cause anger but rather to provide context to a previously submitted perspective on case that could be considered abusive.
A series of meaningful exchanges between mature adults would have been beneficial of all.
Demonization and character assignation serves no real purpose as same is neither educational nor enlightening.
Glad you’re posting here Counter.
Anger. Venom. Demonization. Character “assignation” (?). Is that what you got from my post? I guess you missed the sarcasm and satire. And if you meant “character assassination,” all of this began when I called you out on YOUR libelous and defamatory statement about Deposition’s trainer.
Abuse is synonym with neglect and cruelty and the way all the Thoroughbreds are treated and cared for is very far from an abusive handling.
You have to be royalty to be groomed like Thoroughbreds are. Thoroughbreds receive better medical care than many of us…
The points you make as abuse are just ways to help an athlete perform better and safely. Tongue-tie may help save the life of race horses while helping them breathe freely while running. Crops serve not only to stimulate but to control which, as proved by Monmouth temporarily ban on the use of whips, also help save the life of jockeys. Furthermore, it is fully proved that the modern crops are rather gentle on the rock-hard physique of an equine athlete.
The use of Lasix is a big debate … there are a lot of people supporting its use based on scientific data.
Even races where your horses are not winning but finishing many lengths behind the winner are to be considered just plain training … many trainers like to run their horses regularly to achieve durable fitness.
In my judgement, when a horse finishes 32 lengths behind the winner it means that he was undeniably PROTECTED … PROTECTED by not exerting him needlessly.
So, NONE of your arguments comply with the clauses of any Animal Abuse Law.
Instead of feeling disappointed try to understand that the privilege of having any channel of collective communication implies a big deal of responsibility and ethical behavior. I have seen people being penalized for abusing animals and the past performances of Deposition are very very very far to indicate that.
For years you have been disparaging reputable Trainers without having a shred of proof (apart from cherry picking failure and refusing to acknowledge the sea of accomplishments and societal recognition for those you attack).
So, I simply do not trust those who attack people who cannot defend themselves.
Now you are implying that St. Lewis Uriah is abusing his own horse… please don’t be disappointed in me and just be aware that you may eventually face consequences for your diatribe and it would be Secretariat website accountable for your own failings…
You (by not recognizing you are wrong about Deposition) may believe you are saving horse racing by inventing bad actors, but in reality you are becoming a mere pawn of the enemies of horse racing.
For God’s sake, let’s make Steve’s forum more fun and less stressful…
Counter Point, you probably have a huge group of followers out there who are members of PETA or the Horse Racing Wrongs group.
Here you are again trying to explain what you really meant by your comment that Deposition was abused by his trainer and continuing to harp on the abuse of the colt because he raced 3 times in a month.
Secretariat raced 3 times in the month of July 1972.
He was born on March 30, 1970 which made him 2 years, 3 months old when stepped on the track for the first time on July 4, 1972. Do you think Lucien Laurin “abused” Secretariat?
Seattle Slew was foaled on February 15, 1974. His first race was September 20, 1976, followed by a race on October 5 then October 16. When he stepped on the track on September 20, 1976 he was 2 years, 7 months old. Do you think William Turner abused The Slew?
Carry Back was foaled on April 16, 1958. In the time period between October 03 and November 08, 1960 he raced 3 times. He was 2 years, 6 months old when he stepped on the track on October 03. In fact Carry Back raced 21 times as a two year old. Do you think Jack Price “abused” Carry Back?
Native Dancer raced on August 4, 16, 23 and 30. He was foaled on March 27, 1950. When he stepped on the track on August 4, he was 2 years, 4 months old. Do you think William Winfrey “abused” Native Dancer?
Silver Charm raced on August 10, 24, and September 11, 1996. He was foaled on February 22, 1994. When he stepped on the track on August 10, he was 2 years, 5 months old. Do you think Bob Baffert “abused” Silver Charm?
John Henry raced on July 29, August 6, 25, September 5 as a two year old. His foal date was March 09, 1975. When he stepped on the track on July 29, he was 2 years, 4 months old. Do you think Robert Donato “abused” John Henry?
Man O’War raced June 6, 9, 21, 23 and July 5 in 1919. He was born in March 29, 1917 and was two years, two months old when he stepped on the track on June 6. Do you think trainer Lewis Feustel “abused” MOW?
Winx raced on February 14 (11th), 28 (12th), March 14 (8th) in 2015. Do you think Chris Waller “abused her”?
By comparison, Deposition was foaled on May 06, 2021. When he stepped onto the track on November 04, 2023 he was two years, 6 months old.
What is the standard here? If they win, it’s OK. If they lose it’s not OK. Or if they are older as in Winx’s case, it’s OK? Or dies it just apply to May foals?
The Europeans and most of the rest of the racing world race to train. Here in the United States we train to race. Are all these other countries “abusing” their horses?
You mention “additional training”. What “additional training” would be your recommendation(s)?
Good points Lynda … see what happens when someone is not humble enough to recognize he is wrong about Uriah and instead he doubles down with absurd arguments.
Some people will never understand that their own feelings make others feel bad … and they don’t care… why should they?
even worse, the wrong person ends up having feelings of being unsupported and not understood…
“Never ruin an apology with an excuse.”
― Benjamin Franklin
Nelson, you have made multiple excellent points above in your response to Counter Point.
I learned my lesson in the past of not responding to Cold Facts on BH, now I need to learn the same lesson responding to Counter Point whom I believe to be Cold Facts.
Nelson , Winston and Lynda I applaud your responses here. All are well said !!!
I am with you in our attempts to avoid unnecessary stress…. the problem is that if their rants are going uncontested any one reading them would think that he is right.
Coldfact opinions are many times polemical and other times virulent just because they are unfounded… of course, he would never say his comments are unwarranted or groundless.
Again, he would have avoided all these minutes of writting unpleasant replies with simply recognizing that he has no proof of Deposition being subjected to abuse.
It seems like he really enjoys the attention…but on the other hand, we cannot let the proliferation of nonsense.
I totally agree!
More often than not I blow on by comments that are outrageous and in my opinion do not dignify a response from me.
However when an accusation is made that is a total fabrication with no merit I will respond.
Lynda you’re aware horses of today are only bred for speed. No way most are durable like John Henry and others years ago.
I parted ways with a Franklin in the KDFP # on a 99/1 shot. Another swing for the fences but a home run could net me $13k plus..
Counter Point
You make valid points regarding “animal abuse” and the various forms that depict same.
One thing for sure, you’ve really got me thinking about it now.
Bullfighting, which is banned in this country, is certainly the highest degree of animal abuse. However, it is still practiced in Mexico and other countries as well.
Bull riding, in rodeos, is still allowed in this country, which is yet another form of animal abuse, IMO.
The sport of boxing and cage fighting has to be considered abuse but continues to draw big crowds to witness two individuals attempting to beat each other into bloody submission.
I’m not sure if the word “civilized” is an accurate description of our country.
BTW, good luck with your 99-1 shot. If Fierceness runs his “A” game in the Derby, he’ll be wearing the roses on the first day of May.
If we are going down that road, and I’m not saying we shouldn’t, we should recognize that while we are enjoying ourselves, slaughterhouses are running 24/7. We each decide where to draw the line.
Agreed.
How do you know “we are enjoying ourselves”?
Yes Bill… those instances you describe are examples of animal abuse, and mixed martial arts are somehow cruel spectacles.
However, the issue at hand here is that Counter Point suggested that St. Lewis Uriah was abusing his horse, and this is far different from what you are postulating.
We should keep this forum about the joy of horse racing and avoid making groundless accusations.
Nelson
You must know by now that Counter Point likes to stir the pot just to get the response that you and Lynda provided. He’s been doing this for many years.
The cold facts, if you will. 🙂
LOL .., I see you are using my own words when I (following your gallant example) apologized to him for not believing he was actually Coldfacts…. I said that Coldfacts enjoyed “stirring the pot” and he pretended having no clue about my meaning. I don’t like people who wear two masks …!
Now, we apologized for something we should not have to apologize for and he is not even able to recognize he is wrong about Uriah being an “animal abuser”…
And then today he writes to me a letter longer than a fart of an anaconda to “explain” his understanding of abuse.
The only thing I am asking for is an apology to Uriah St. Lewis … we did it to Coldfacts and Coldfacts should do it to the denigrated trainer.
Nothing less nothing more….!
Hey Nelson
I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for an apology. Just take his comments with a grain of salt and move on.
Peace Brother.
The Beyers for the Wood (90) and the Santa Anita Derby (89) have been posted on stakes results at the DRF. Still waiting on the Blue Grass.
Wow. Those are mighty low. But wait for the revisions! Ha! Better yet, wait for the Brisnet numbers that are more reliable. Regardless, Stronghold and rider were impressive.
I’m sure Steve will weave all the figs into a meaningful narrative come Tuesday.
Never follow numbers,etc. Follow who finishes first!
Of course we are focusing on the winners of yesterday’s three excellent races. But I’d like to say a few words about the second-place finisher of the BGS, Just a Touch, who lost by 1.5 lengths. This was only his third career start and first around two turns. He pressed a quick early pace and assumed the lead at the top of the stretch, but he could not withstand the strong rally of Sierra Leone. Like Mage in the Florida Derby, JAT should move forward and could be a top contender for a placing at Churchill Downs on May 4.
My thoughts exactly with JAT … When I saw the posted odds below from Circa and they got him posted at 30 to 1 I said …. WHAT !!!! He better than Honor Maria, Mystik Dan and Track Phantom at 15 to 1 . He should only improve off of the BG. I was not expecting him to be pressing the pace in the race and would have preferred he would have been running were “BE YOU” was running (around 5th) going into the far turn but it is what it is. Cox needs to be working with him running at horses down the stretch and then catching them at the wire. If he can keep him healthy and happy he has a live one here !!! One other thing on watching the replay of the BG on Bloodhorse and after the first play they show the stretch drive of the race and you can see after he (JAT) get the lead he turns his head and see Sierre Leone coming to his right and he digs in…. that is a good sign , I like that, he knows he is in a race !!!
I agree with your assessment; JAT was 44-1 prior to BG: I pressed a bit at those odds. I like his chances.
JAT now 20-1
Absolutely Winston. I am not sure if you were posting on week 1 but I was very excited about Just a Touch debut and I wrote about it to Davids … I had been following him as one of the most promising sons of Justify since his very first workout. He has lived up to the hype and I believe he will continue to do so.
He will like the 10 furlongs for sure….
You have a good eye! Possibly two.
We are about to see the return of The Wine Steward who is entered in the Lexington. He was last seen finishing a game 2nd to Locked in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on October 7th. He’s had a series of eight works since February 17th so he should be good to go. Sorry that he wasn’t ready to compete on the Derby trail, but, glad to see him back in action.
After sleeping on it, I still can’t believe how poorly Tuscan Sky and Deterministic ran yesterday. I was right about Tuscan Sky being better than Deterministic. Unfortunately, Tuscan Sky finished 7th and Deterministic 8th. I was way off.
I backed Just a Touch at Keenland. He ran well to finish 2nd. Does he move forward again in the Derby or did his big run yesterday wipe him out? We’ll see.
I was right to oppose the 2 BBs at Santa Anita. Insanely, I backed Mc Vay who seems to have nothing left when reaching the stretch. It didn’t help that Hector Berrios’ foot came out of the irons coming out of the first turn. On TVG/FanDuel, commentator Kurt Hoover said that Mc Vay reminded him of Skinner. True. But as disappointing as Skinner was, I think he was better than Mc Vay.
Bottom line: 0 for 3 in the big three races yesterday. A pick-5 and 2 pick-4s at Keenland cushioned the blow and sets me up with a nice bankroll for Oaks & Derby Days. IF I can take it easy the next 3 weeks. IF!!!!
One last points race. The Lexington next Saturday. I think it’s only worth 20-points to the winner. A last chance for bubble horses.
Anyway my take on Stronghold is he can rally in a tight seam and he is just thicker than the others, so he can hold his position— very important —one to keep an eye on for sure….
Update! I just now watched a replay of Stronghold, rallying behind Bob’s colt he stops and waits, then Fresu brings him into a perilous seam, Steve did you see that? Rallying from behind BETWEEN two horses and Fresu rode a masterful race! Crossing the finish line Steve: Did he remind you of Angel?…
fyi, here are updated odds from Circa:
Sierra Leone and Fierceness 3-1
Catching Freedom 8-1
Forever Young and Dornoch 10-1
Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Track Phantom 15-1
Endlessly 20-1
Just Steel 25-1
Just a Touch 30-1
Resilience and Stronghold 35-1
No respect for Wood winner!
Why?
I just think he has a better chance to win Derby than some of the horses with lower odds.
You’ll get better than 3-1/Sierra Leone on Derby Day….
By no means am I saying Sierra Leone doesn’t have a good chance to win the roses, this is a horse who again rallied, after settling behind a slow early quarter….I consider Sierra Leone the horse to beat, that is to say he’s the most likely horse to finish in the exacta—he’s more consistent than Fierceness, if not as brilliant..
Matthew, I agree with your assessment of SL, except for your description of SL “settling behind a slow early quarter.” The 1/4 and 1/2 mi fractions were the fastest (slightly) of all BG Stakes since the reintroduction of natural dirt in 2015.
Very nice win by Sierra Leone. After the loading into the gate antics, he made it look easy.
There is one more obstacle to consider….Of all the SEVEN figure auction horses that made it into the starting for the KD, only ONE horse has won the race….that was Fusaichi Pegasus.
Hoping all the qualifiers stay healthy for the big dance on the first Saturday in May.
Sierra Leone is like a sports car weaving through traffic to get the win. So exciting to watch this guy. SL is bad bad boy.
His front kicks are kind of like Vekoma’s. Must be in the Candy Ride gene. SL and Vekoma got mighty engines regardless.
Forever young meets Sierra Leone in the derby for these two cousins. This is going to be a fun exciting derby!
Maserati.
For our friends here interested in how the individual winners of today’s preps ran their final trials I am sharing their GPS data. Their particular times for 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, 1 mile and 1 1/8 mile are the following:
Sierra Leone: 24.44 47.94 1:12.06 1:37.06 1:50.08 final furlong: 13.02
Resilience: 23.58 47.77 1:12.47 1:37.35 1:50.28 final furlong: 12.93
Stronghold: 23.09 47.17 1:11.29 1:36.98 1:49.98 final furlong: 13.10
I don’t have the track variants but it seems like all of them finished the last furlong in about 13 seconds flat… and interestingly enough their final times are pretty similar as well… again, not pretending their times are comparable without knowing which track was heavier than the other but still their particular split times could give an idea about how they could be doing at 10furlongs…
edit: 1:36.88 for Stronghold’s mile
Yes, Stronghold stalked a :46 4/5 half ..and made a quick move past Bob’s (nice) horse, I saw Bob and Frankie I was ten feet away and they exuded complete confidence, but Phil’s colt wow! Not a large frame but a stoutly muscled physique….I heard about “the work”, beating Phil’s two best horses easily—on top of the race—he beat a good Bob horse, continues to answer the questions with a resounding “yes”….
:46 3/5..
Thank you Nelson for the stats.
I was away from the computer for over two hours and missed the SAD, so I am in catch up mode.
Congratulations everyone!
I am thrilled for Stronghold.
All of a sudden the Derby is hotter than a hooker’s doorknob on a Friday night.
Old saying from my part of the country, hope it does offend anyone.
That is an awesome saying! I am definitely going to use, if I can fit it into a future conversation!
LOL, biggy. Glad you liked it!
FIERCENESS: 24.06 47.50 1:11.31 1:35.63 1:48.22 final furlong: 12.59
Very interesting data, Nelson. Thanks for your work.
Stronghold ran an impressive race today in the Santa Anita Derby, gamely nosing out a good horse in Imagination. I was wondering who to put in the 5th spot in my Top 20 list and he earned it. As for Sierra Leone and Fierceness, it’s a toss-up. (I wonder if Steve will rank them tied at number 1?)
Also, interesting that the times for all three Derby preps were so close, right around 1:50, even though Santa Anita usually produces much faster times, especially compared to Aqueduct.
Good observations Ms Blacktype… I just posted their individual GPS times for your consideration.
Did you notice that Stronghold did not want to let Imagination pass him in the gallop out? Could have been Fresu’s idea, too – he was pumped! And rightfully so, with a great stretch duel like that to beat the hot hand of the day. That was a fun one!
I hit the BIG3Pick3 for $226.50, so I got most of my money back for the day.
In addition, with Resilience winning the Wood, I’ve got three horses that should make the Derby starting gate, (Resilience, Deterministic and Catching Freedom).
All with $40.00 win wagers, in Futures Pool 3. Plus, Exacta wagers on those three.
Congratulations, Bill! Good luck to you on Derby Day.
Thanks, and good luck to you as well.
Congratulations Bill! I am with you in the futures with Catching Freedom (can win $7,150) Resilience ($8,800) and Deterministic (very small wager, can win $635, which would cover some of my $712 invested in futures pools! Nice hit on the pick 3!
Hope we cash on Derby day!
My other futures horses are. Mystik Dan ($4,950), Honor Marie ($2,000) Endlessly ($8,000) Just a Touch ($3,180) and Grand Mo the First ($8,250) which probably means I don’t cash or cash with Deterministic!
Thanks, biggy312
You’ve got several major players going into the Derby.
Regarding my three moving on to the Derby, I believe Resilience has the best shot.
Deterministic really threw a clunker today, not sure what happened to him. I certainly expected more from him. I suspect it’s back to the drawing board for his connections. Stay tuned.
Good luck, biggy312
Congratulations!!!
Thanks, Lynda.
BTW, I always enjoy your informative posts, I consider you one of the top contributors on this blog. Please keep those comments coming.
Best of luck, Lynda
Thank you Bill.
Great group here.
Good Deal Bill, soften your blow with Determinstic in the Wood. Glad for you !!!
Very nice!!
Rah for Stronghold!
Say, has anyone ever experienced a track suddenly changing its announced first post time a day or two prior? Two days ago, Golden Gate listed Sunday’s first post as 1:15; today, the site says 3:15. Can’t figure that one out. They’ve never started that late. Now I’ll have to wait until next weekend to go.
Santa Anita Derby
$1.00 Super HI-5: 4/ 2,3,5,8
$1.00 Super P/W: 3,4/ 3,4/ 2,5,7,8/ 2,5,7,8
$40.00 Trifecta P/W: 4/ 3,5/ 3,5
Mc Vay wins or takes 2nd!
Didn’t pick a horse correctly today.
BB dominated the Santa Anita Oaks today. Running 1st and 2nd with his 2 entrants. Does he do it again in the Santa Anita Derby? He has the 2 best riders on his two entrants. Including a scorching hot Frankie Dettori. I may have been crazy to play against those guys. But I did. Hope springs eternal.
Well … looks like Gargan experiment with Dornoch went awfully wrong… Steve’s words regarding the fast horses ring true more than ever: “if you want to beat a fast horse make him go slow. Fast horses do not like to or want to run slow.”
If Dornoch goes to the Derby he will have to go back to his one dimensional frontrunner style … then he won’t have a chance against Fierceness.
Interesting to see how the pace would unfold in the Derby now…
Dornoch can be Fierceness worst enemy !!!
Or maybe should have put it as …. “worst nightmare” !!!!
Sierra Leone ran big today after getting all keyed up loading into the gate. Impressive.
If he got shook up in front of 45,000 people at Keenland, what’s he going to do in front of 100,000+ at Churchill? Maybe Chad Brown should try some ear plugs.
Can Chad Brown find a way to get that Top Conor into the Derby starting gate to set the table for Sierra Leone again? Probably not. No points.
The last 2 Saturdays have been pretty exciting after what I thought had been a rather lackluster start to the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Does Dornoch run back in the Derby off today’s 4th place finish? He was pretty rank out there today.
Yes, Tommy, except that ornery-ness when the asst. starters were trying to get him into the gate. But once he got in and broke — near the back, no less — there is no question he smothered that field. I expect Chad will be gate-schooling him and considering ways to calm him down for the Derby.
Plus, I think we’ll see some speed upfront in the Derby. There always is.
My Big Future bet Top Conor was the rabbit … but was impressive stepping up in class on only second start … watch out for him in the Preakness !
He’s was first in the gate and like all the horses had to wait a long time for Sierra Leone… his stable mate … Top Conor has shown twice now that he’s very composed and does exactly what the jockey asks of him …watch out when he gains conditioning
Felt bad for Dornoch at the beginning of the BG as he wanted no part of being held back. Trainer will need to work on his stamina as he has speed
Congrats to Sierra Leone.
Starting to get interesting.
Frankie Dettori looking to a new record of races won in one afternoon at Santa Anita…we has won 6 in a row and has four more mounts to go…
“Man amongst boys” – that was my thought looking at Sierra Leone (physically) before the race.
And then he runs the exact type of prep race you want to see.
He’s my #1. Don’t see that changing.
He looks so big! Has inherited that sort of downhill, low headed Gun Runner running style, too, I think. When he turned it up at the top of the stretch, he had the look of a turf horse. Also interesting that Mr. Haskin has a Smarty Jones retro coming up, because the downward power in SL’s strides reminded me a bit of Smarty Jones, too. I hope he isn’t quite as hard on himself as Smarty was.
I’m alive in the BIG 3 Pick 3, hitting the first two legs, Resilience and Sierra Leone.
This is my ticket:
Wood: 1,4,7,9
Blue Grass: 4,10
SA Derby: 3,4
Congrats Bill!
Thanks Mike
It paid $226.50, but aside from that, nothing else.
I don’t expect Sierra Leone to win the BlueGrass but if he finds a way to win I think (IMO) he stamps himself the favorite and the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby. My suspicions (Sorry Bill Dawson) might have been confirmed as Deterministic finished out of the money in the Wood. He has a mud loving pedigree especially on the female side. Back on the Bluegrass I just hope Geroux doesn’t think he is on Pegasus and goes for lead in this race with Just a Touch, Would like to see a nice stalking trip and if he is good enough I think he can win.
Hey Downthestretch
There’s always a chance of rain on Derby Day. 🙂
Yes like I said below … Pray for rain !!!
Stopped bad in the stretch …. hope he didn’t bleed !!!!
Not ready to toss Deterministic yet.
Questionable ride by Joel Rosario, aboard Deterministic, but with 50 points he should make the Derby starting gate.
Hats off to the old master rider, John Velazquez aboard Resilience. I’ve got a $40.00 win wager on Resilience at 93-1, in Derby Futures Pool 3.
Regarding my $40.00 win wagers in Pool 3, I’ve got three horses that should make the Derby starting gate:
Deterministic at 107-1
Resilience at 93-1
Catching Freedom at 28-1
Blue Grass
With the scratch of Encino, I changed my superfecta p/w ticket which is as follows:
4,10/ 4,10/ 1,2,3,6,7,8/ 1,2,3,6,7,8
I boxed, 2,4,6,10 ($1.00 super)
$40.00 Tri. P/W 10/ 4,6/ 4,6
Bill, do you really think that Deterministic will be entered in the Derby after finishing 8th by about 18 lengths in the Blue Grass? I don’t see it happening.
First off, Deterministic ran in the Wood Memorial, not the Blue Grass. 🙂
Yes, without question, I expect Clement will enter him in the Derby, he has the points, (50) why not?
Rosario found himself boxed in throughout most of the race, and threw in the towel, in the late going. I will continue to support Deterministic and his connections.
Yes, the Wood. Thank you. You ask “Why not?” The finish position and lengths back to start. It’s an indication that he’s not up to the Derby task or that something is wrong with him. Additionally, no horse has finished first in the Derby after a 5th-place finish or worse in the final prep since 1957.
You are right Winston…. I hope there is nothing amiss hit Deterministic.
The son of Liam’s Map should take a breath bypassing the Derby… there is no need to push him to an unnecessary big effort in the Derby… as I always say it would pay out on the long run…
Absolutely, Nelson. Clement is a wise and experienced horseman. We’ll see Deterministic in big races down the road, assuming that he is well.
Yes I do.
Very plausible combination as per usual… let’s hope the race becomes the much-anticipated Sierra Leone/Dornoch match
If he runs in the KD pray for rain !!!!
Deposition is said to be OK after clicking heels in stretch and going down.
Jockey OK too.
Tough luck for the team.
Hopefully we will see him later in the year.
“”Per Dr. Hinchliffe, NYRA Director of Veterinarians, Deposition stood up under his own power and walked onto the ambulance, the NYRA press department reported. He will be taken back to the barn area for further evaluation. Haddock was taken to on-track EMT and will visit a local hospital for further evaluation.””
Yes, just read he is spending the night at the Ruffian Clinic to be evaluated for iinternal bleeding and a concussion etc.
Thank you for the update!
Hope he checks out just fine.
If anyone has inside information on how this pair does in the next few days, please do post it! I loved the winners’ performances today, but it’s always so much sweeter when they all come home safely.
Katy, If I hear anything I will be sure to post on here.
I have come to like Deposition and his trainer, so I am following him closely.
I’ll be waiting to hear any news, too. Follow-up seems to be a state secret.
Frankie on fire 4 in a row.
Time to bet the other Baffert horse.
Now five in a row after a romp with Nothing Like You in the Santa Anita Oaks … hope his inspiration also embraces Imagination in the SA Derby…
Now 6 while we were watching the Blue Grass
Conquest Warrior was a no show in the FL Derby. Did Deterministic bounce of his Gotham win?
I don’t think he bounced
Sometimes I have to chuckle. As they were going into the gate for the Wood Memorial, TVG/Fanduel’s Todd Shrupp called it a great edition of the Wood Memorial. Really????
Society Man ran 2nd, Proctective 3rd, and Lonesome Boy 4th. Who? Who? and Who?
No offense. But I’ve seen much better editions of the race and I’ll bet that Steve Haskin has seen many more than I have.
I was really wrong about Tuscan Sky. He showed nothing. It’s exactly this kind of race that I think Counter Point is always pointing out. A huge race followed by nothing. It happens. Tuscan Sky went off at 5-2 or close to it. He couldn’t finish ahead of 80-1 Lonesome Boy? A head scratcher.
Two graded stakes winners. Par for the derby trail course.
You are right Tommy… this was a subpar edition of the Wood.
Regarding Tuscan Sky I overlooked my own rule of dismissing a top performance on wet tracks … he never looked like he did at Fair Grounds…
Resilience wins convincingly the Wood Memorial validating the quality of the top horses in Risen Star …
99 to 1 Society Man came in 2nd with another bomb in third Protective at 38 to 1…
At last big payouts in a Derby prep this year…!
Hope Deposition is OK after the spill…
Good news on Deposition’s condition… he seems to be OK and back to his barn after the scary incident
Yikes! I missed that with Deposition, which is probably best. Hope he truly is ok.
Johnny V has an interesting dilemma. He just keeps getting on winners! Resilience looked very convincing to me… but I was also losing the feed for seconds at a time.
Thankfully. It was a bad fall and it looked like he flipped over. Amazing to walk off after that.
Fourth horse was 80-1. Anyone have the superfecta? LOL
Deposition got real resilience … must be a very strong and athletic horse under great care to overcome that spill…
I could not bet as I did not have time to change the combinations after El Grande O was scratched at the last minute…
But I don’t think I would have Prospective there…
I mean Pletcher’s Protective was not in my Tri forecast…
Ha! Resilience was a factor in more ways than one.
El Grande O late scratch in the Wood Memorial…
Wood pace guess:
50.15 114.45 150.10
Aqueduct track does not seem to be that heavy today…
To me the possible times for the Wood Memorial are:
:24 4/5, :48 4/5, 1:13 2, 1:38 3/5, 1:51 1/5
47.49 112.31 150.28 not even close but for the final time
almost correct in both wood and Blue Grass for the final time, but both pace call were far off.
46.48 110.83 150.08
Not close on pace again but almost spot on for the final time for both races.
Edit placed those times under the SA Derby, will repost
Need edit button here Steve, sorry for the mess, The above time still holds for the Blue Grass
Let’s see how good a projection I can make for the Blue Grass pace.
47.80 11.75 149.85
GL E1
OOPS typo 111.75 but I guess E1 knew that
Hi Gary…! I like those kind of guesses ..
my guess of the Blue Grass split and final time is:
:23 4/5 , :47 3/5, 1:12 1/5 , 1:36 2/5, 1:49
and the winner hits the power ball LOL
Congrats Gary … your final times were the closest ones for the Wood and the Blue Grass…
Your 25K cheque is on its way…
thanks
Thorograph guy Levin says Just A Touch lays over the Bluegrass field….
I agree JAT is set up perfectly for the Blue Grass. Chad Brown’s rabbit will take enough out of Dornoch, and Sierra Leone will come up short on an early speed/stalker track.
You are probably right Winston.
I don’t know if I am overthinking the possible Blue Grass scenarios but Gargan said he will Dornoch in an “education” mode by having him stalking the pace this time… this entails the risk of diminishing his main weapon (early speed) and would make Just a Touch and Be You take advantage of a less hot early pace…
Just a Touch and Be You would most likely be more agressive and this could pay out at the end…who knows?
Dornoch seems to be the only one always trying to prove himself.
It could be a mistake to let another horse take the lead. In Dornoch’s first two races, he stalked and lost both. The next three races…first at all calls.
A should have added…and first at the finish.
When I looked at the Bluegrass Stakes one thing that bothered me was the jockey change on Encino from Concepcion to Prat. I have already posted earlier my displeasure of Prat’s ride on Timberlake in the Ark Derby and then him now getting the mount on Encino I just didn’t know what kind of ride to expect to get from. It was great relief to me this morning to see that Encino was scratched from the race. I will be betting this race and will betting a $5 WPS (Yeh last of the big all time bettors LOL) on Just in Touch . Based on Steve’s comments about the connections high expectations on this horse and his great works on the the track and him getting a fast track hoping for a big one out of him. I think Brown put Good Money in the race as a “rabbit” for Sierra Leone to keep the pace honest on Dornach. I can see actually a pretty good pace in this race. Mystery horse to me is Seize the Grey but would have like to have see a work in him after his last race but you never know with Lukas.
Good luck to all in this race !!!
You think he would’ve won with a different jockey? Then why is the trainer not headed for The Derby, colt has enough points?
In the Breeders Cup Muth challenged Fierceness and got his bum handed to him! He still beat Timberlake home, because he’s a better horse….
I didn’t say he would have beat Muth but felt with a better ride he would have got 2nd !!!
BTW ,,,, In the better than late category a BIG HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY to you STEVE !!! You deserve all the ACCOLADES you receive and I repeat as I have said in the past you deserve an Eclipse award for the work you have done thru the years on this column.
Thank you very much. I really appe4ciate the kind words
Agreed. I think he’s a pretty good horse, and it usually doesn’t work to switch jockeys if they’re winning.
Just reported Encino out of BG, going to the Lexington.
Oops, Downstretch I did not mean to step on your post.
Had I read your post in itis entirety I would have seen you already commented on the withdrawal.
No offense taken but great post on Mr St Lewis !!!
Thank you
Just my take, although as stated above Just in Touch has better TG numbers.
Per my calc if Dornoch bounces back to his form (his last work was really good) then all he has to do is hold off Sierra Leone. Dornoch has the advantage over Sierra Leone.
Some rabbits may try to force a duel with Dornoch, but I think Louis will be ready for that. A similar race by Dornoch like what Fireceness did last week early in the race.
According to BloodHorse, Florent Geroux will have the mount on Encino in the Lexington. I was really disappointed that Encino was scratched from the Blue Grass as I thought he could get 3rd or better to earn a Derby spot. Even if he wins the Lexington, he will have a total of 40 pts which will put him on the fence.
Being a curious sort, I researched Mr St Lewis who is owner and trainer for Deposition.
Mr St Lewis came to the United States as a teenager in 1973. His first job was working at NYRA as a computer technician for AmTote. His wife encouraged him to consider becoming a trainer and he took a job with a trainer named Robert Hayes.
His first winner came in 1987. Mr St Lewis and his wife moved to Oklahoma, purchased a farm and raced primarily at Remington and other small tracks. He then moved his operation back to Pennsylvania and races primarily at Parx.
His most well known success so far is Discreet Lover whom he purchased for $10,000 and who went on to win $1.3 million. His trainees are mostly horses he owns himself
His philosophy on horse racing is that we are here to make money. If you do the right thing, treat your horses right, take some chances you can make money. We can take the chances because we own the horses. That is advantage he has over other trainers who are often subject to the owner’s wishes who do not want to be embarrassed by the horse’s performance.
His sucess is dependent on seeing value in less expensive horses at auction. He buys almost exclusively at Fasig-Tipton Mid Atlantic sale and looks at every two year old in the auction.
Regarding Deposition whom he purchased for $77,000, he said that the colt had some bad luck trying to break his maiden in November. We wanted to give him every chance to break his maiden which he did on his 3rd try at Parx.
At some point he might try Deposition on turf considering his dam is by Dubawi.
Yes, Deposition raced 3 times in November but since he has raced a more typical schedule of once a month.
Labeling Mr St Lewis as a horse abuser because Deposition raced 3 times in November is a mischaracterization in my opinion.
It is easy to sit behind a keyboard in the comfort of our homes and make an accusation or judgement when just looking on the surface without taking the time to research the backstory.
People like Mr St Lewis are rarity these days. He loves the sport, he loves the horses, he has made a successful living seeing potential and promise in a $3,000 colt, he takes the chance when he enters the horse in the race that the horse will finish in the money. He is a sucess under his own terms, he is happy and enjoys what he does.
People like Mr St Lewis and horses like Deposition are the ones I most often cheer for. They are representative of the true sport of horse racing that harkens back to very early days in Colonial America when people would gather at county fairs to watch and bet on horse racing or attend a day of racing in Colonial Williamsburg when horses raced in heats in the morning around a 4 mile track to vie for a place in the final race of the day to determine the winner.
Today it is about speed, speed and more speed, multi million dollar babies, high priced trainers, wealthy owners and lucrative stud deals for horses that have not been given a chance to achieve their full potential…it’s “high ho, high ho, off to the breeding shed we go”.
The backstories you write about Steve are always the most interesting to me. You take the time to peel back the layers, delve into the who, what, where, when and how…the questions that a true journalist asks.
In closing this up as I am starting to ramble, I want to wish Mr St Lewis the very best of luck and best wishes for continued success doing things ” your way”, wish there were more like you.
Lynda, what a marvelous post!
I agree Ms Blacktype !!! Lynda needs to be commended for clearing this up.
Thank you
Excellent post, Lynda. You made those points far better than I did. Thanks for the backstory.
Thank you Winston
Thanks Lynda for your Outstanding deposition…
Some people appear to have NO IDEA of what animal abuse is… and to make things worse they believe that their opinions are “facts”.
God bless free speech as it let us know the true color of people.
Thank you Nelson
“Labeling Mr St Lewis as a horse abuser because Deposition raced 3 times in November is a mischaracterization in my opinion.”
Lynda,
I didn’t label Mr. St Lewis as horse abuser. His grueling race schedule for a late foal appears excessive bordering on abuse in my opinion.
If you are not of the opinion that colt’s race schedule has been grueling and excessive given, he has suffered several wide margins defeats in the process. You are certainly entitled to said opinion.
I prefer a more conservative approach to the management of these young developing horses.
The colt maiden breaker and 3rd race in November was pedestrian in nature. Three races in November covering 23F & 70 yards, requires far more than 30 days for proper recovery for a May foal and probably any young developing horse. In his next race after that 3-race sequence, he finished a misplaced last.
I cannot see why there appears to be so much offence taken regarding my comments. The evidence speaks for itself.
The colt is owned by Mr. Lewis and he can do as he sees fit with him. Some do not have to endorse his less than conservative approach.
In an era when many KD starters have only 3 or 4 starts on their resumes’.
How can a colt that has been beaten a combined 36L in 4 starts with an approximate average of 12.5 days between starts, not appear extraordinary?
Is such a race schedule in the best interest of a late foal who appears to need more time to develop?
It isn’t wise to take offence where none is intended. Moreover, definitive statements should never be confused with those that are not. A grueling race schedule might appear excessive and abusive to some but perfectly OK for others.
Is a cup that is half full also half empty?
Can one man’s trash be another man’s treasure.?
Lighten up guys. this nonentity’s views are meaningless.
The phrase “appear to be” means.
To have the appearance or give the impression of being something.
To be suggestive of something.
To seem to be something.
To make someone think that a person or thing has a particular characteristic.
Appears to be is not definitive. See definitions above. I never stated that the colt is abused. Let’s examine the spacing between this late foal races:
9/23/2023 – Debut- 5th by 10 3/4L
10/14/2023 – 2nd start – 4th by 121/4L. (20 days)
11/04/2023 – 3rd start – 6th by 9 3/4L (20 days)
11/14/2023 – 4th start -3rd by 3 1/4L (10 days)
11/21/2023 – 5th Start -1st by 41/4L in a slow 1:48.64 for 1m 70 yards. (7 days)
12/30/2023 – 6th Start – 7th and last by13L.
There are 3 other May foals in the lineup, The spacing of their races is nothing like that of Deposition.
A May foal is considered a late foal. He finished last by 13L after his 3 starts in November.
If the colt was not owned by its trainer, would it have been subjected to such a grueling race scheduled?
Am I the wicked wizard of the North to express concern for this late foal.
Wayne Lukas has been dubbed the ‘Butcher’ because he is viewed as over racing his horses with very short recovery time between starts.
Riff Rocket by American Pharoah wins the Australian Derby, just, he was staggering home but he made it. The charasmatic James McDonald got him home in time.
Fantastic day of racing at Royal Randwick.
Davids:
Thought I’d thank you now for sending me down the rabbit hole of Riff Rocket’s illustrious family, Colonial 7 — I’ll be tracking it from its origins to this classic winner all afternoon while watching the races. My idea of fun (at least until my new ebike arrives from China).
Congratulations!
Storm Boy disappoints in the Sire’s Produce Stakes, lathering up before the start. A filly, Manaal takes the Sires in dashing style. Royal Randwick looks a treat considering the weather.
One of the puzzles I encountered during the Derby preps this year was Uncle Heavy winning the Withers with ONLY ONE public workout since November 27th which was a week before the 1 1/8-mile Stakes.
Perhaps someone here well versed on training techniques could shed light about making a race horse fit WITHOUT using typical workouts or regular breezings. Did Robert Reid Jr. resorted to strong gallops, treadmills, swimming or even pulling a carriage for the two whole months not showing public drills for Uncle Heavy? Was Uncle Heavy training in a farm? Can you train your horse in secret in the USA?
There must be an answer there … if your horse is able to win a Grade 3 race with only one breeze then imagine what he can do with full training.
Curiously, due to an Equine Herpesvirus quarantine at Belmont Park, Uncle Heavy had to be moved to a Pennsylvania farm right after the Withers. In the farm Reid kept Uncle Heavy fit using a treadmill but was able to resume training at Parx on March 16th. The son of Social Inclusion had three workouts for the Wood Memorial which is more encouraging preparation that the one he (apparently) had when he won the Withers.
Mychel Sanchez who knows Uncle Mo very well will have to sort out the outer most post position. The Venezuelan Jockey has in his resume winning three of the last four Championship meets at Parx. He will try to replicate his flawless job in the Whiters.
Anyway, my tentative Wood Memorial Superfecta will read:
4 Deterministic / 9 Tuscan Sky/1 Resilience
4 Deterministic / 9 Tuscan Sky/1 Resilience
1 Resilience/2 El Grande O/13 Uncle Heavy
2 El Grande O/6 Evening News/ 10 Gettysburg Address /12 Deposition/13 Uncle Heavy
Let speed rule !
Your Thoroughbred don’t need to be the best in the West to get into the Derby.
Stronghold will qualify if he finishes 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby. Running him in the Sunland Derby was a good decision as the 20 points he got at Sunland Park give him two spots of freedom this Saturday.
Stronghold would be the first Derby starter for Philip D’Amato.
John A. Shirreffs has Mc Vay on-deck to hit the needed 50 points in the Santa Anita Derby. The son of Constitution is a big and powerful horse is the only real closer in the field who is able to sneak in between the speedsters in the last furlong. We should never underestimate the power of big strides especially at a 1 1/8 mile or longer.
The trainer of Zenyatta shows a relatively decent record in the Derby winning it with his very first runner (Giacomo). Shirreffs’ three last Derby starters were Santa Anita Derby victors so Mc Vay got the right trainer in his corner.
2005 Giacomo 1st
2006 A.P. Warrior 18th
2007 Tiago 7th
2017 Gormley 9th
2020 Honor A. P. 4th
Dettori (Imagination) and Juan Hernandez (Wynstock) may have to deploy all their crafts to make everyone capitulate to their terms. The other four speedy horses won’t make it easy for them though…
Yes, thinking Mc Vay will run well.
Yes MIke… Besides, Mc Vay is the only one offering betting value in the SA Derby…
Nelson I hope you are right, about Mc Vay, he has not closed all that well so far in his career, his recent works are pretty solid! ..
He got a valid excuse last time… At this very juncture Shirreff is Mr. Santa Anita Derby in my mind eyes…
Thanks for information, Honor AP was the best horse in KD. Just an incredibly poor ride for him beat
Hi Jeff… I understand that Honor A.P. ran below expectations because he got injured in the Derby… he was retired after that unique September Kentucky Derby
I know some here like Mc Vay but I don’t see it. I watched his last work and it was nice and if he is going to close in the race that is the type of work out I like to see but what bothers me is why didn’t Sherriff have another horse in there for him to run at. He did the work all by himself. Would have liked to have him run at another horse and pass him up at the end. I don’t see him winning and like others in this race over him. I will not be betting this race as too many variables here. One of the Baffert horses will be favored , Stronghold ran a good race in the Sunland and can’t be overlooked. Tapalo , Sadler’s horse , looks interesting and EJ Won the Cup, O’Neill’s horse with “Money Mike” on him you never know. Like I said I will be on the side line for this one. Good luck to all on this one !!!
Fun pedigree fact:
The dams of Leslie’s Rose and Grand Mo the First are half sisters, both daughters of stakes winner Wildwood Flower. Could it be a good omen for GMTF?
And both were bred by John Gunther.
Thanks for sharing the connection.
Ah, Lynda, you always know the PEOPLE behind the horses.
Some very late money drove Candied down to the 8-5 Favorite today at Keenland. That same late money drove the winner, Leslie’s Rose, up to 9-1 and Just F Y I to 9-2. In this case, late money wasn’t smart money. I think Candied finished 4th.
Late money ain’t what it used to be!
Leslie’s Rose ( love that name) holds Just FYI off comfortably to win the Ashland.
Congratulations to Whisper Hill Farm.
Bill Mott seemed a little nervous before her race today. He felt like she could be one workout short. But Just F Y I ran very well to finish second. I have complete confidence that Bill Mott will have her ready to run her best next month. IF(and that’s always a big if) she comes out of today’s race OK. If I was picking a horse on looks, it would be her.
I didn’t play today. Just watched. I’ll dive in tomorrow.
Keenland looked like it was in good shape after some rain this week.
Charlie Appleby had a horse today that ran off the board. He has another one tomorrow.
The tipoff could be that he didn’t send one of his European riders over for the mounts.
I expect Dornoch and Sierra Leone will engage in another stretch battle tomorrow! Dornoch comes into this with a terrific work, and drew better, if Luis can fashion a stalking trip I think he’ll get first run….Sierra Leone packs a whallop! One-two, not sure which way!..
Deposition is a nicely bred colt by Constitution out of a Dubawi mare. He made 3 starts in November, with the first being in the MSW won by Sierra Leone.
As May foal, why would a trainer subject him to 3 races in one month, with his maiden breaker coming 7 days after his previous start?
He finished 6th in Sierra Leone’s debut win and was only 5L behind Tuscan Gold. His best race was in the 9F Remsen. Because of his heavy race schedule, it is unknow how good this Constitution colt is.
Does he deserve an exotic wager consideration? Why not! His pedigree certainly deserves it.
“Appears to be an abused animal”? Shame on you!
So no problem with racing a horse three times in a month?
You’ve asked an irrelevant question. The correct question is this: Are you accusing the trainer of abusing the colt Deposition? If you answer “Yes,” the second question is this: What evidence do you have of abuse (other than two of his eight races being 10 and 7 days after a previous race)?
This isn’t 1940, three times running in a month is insane.
I meant to delete that part earlier and got distracted. Its gone now. This guy will never learn. He can criticize the trainer if he wants, but he has no clue the right way to do it and what is inappropriate.
That kind of irresponsible online behavior is found in great abundance everywhere. At least there’s little of it on your blog. Thanks for all you do.
Winston, many of your comments are spot on,however will never agree three times per month for racing a horse is okay.
Mike, I’m glad that you didn’t answer “Yes” to my previous question. So let’s move past the “abuse” allegation. I’m assuming you know that for most of American racing, races spaced 7 to 10 days apart are as common as the cold. Do you have a bias related to class levels? Is frequent racing okay for $10k claimers but not for Derby prospects?
You oppose racing a horse “three times per month.” I would tend to agree with you if all of a horse’s races over a longer period of time were spaced like that. But Deposition raced just three time in ONE solitary calendar month. All of his other races were spaced from 3 to 6 weeks apart. And please see Matthew’s comment regarding workouts. What if Deposition’s 6.5f race a week before his maiden win was a 6f workout in 1:15 and change? Would you be okay with that?
Any class of horse racing three times a month is too much.
Three races in a month? Thoroughbreds are bred to run, he races one week after? He won the race by four lengths, HOW is racing three times wrong? But it’s OK to run ONCE, with three 1:12 works in tow? Some barns race into shape, and it wasn’t in the 1940s that they stopped racing their stock it’s a new thing altogether, you want to put up an argument then don’t use false info—maybe Deposition is a sound animal, there ARE still sound horses that can run more than five races in a year ….Deposition actually ran well in the Withers, so he developed somewhat, probably can use class relief, but after accusing the trainer of abuse, he says he’s betting on him?
Well stated, Matthew.
My contention is three races a month is excessive. When Lukas ran LS she ran so many times for a female who weighed 900 lbs, finally she didn’t want to load into gate. If mine, pulled from his barn in a heart beat.
Agree with your comment.
Ms Blacktype, and whoever is interested, just confirmed .the Royal Randwick races are going ahead after 9 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Will Storm Boy redeem his stature in the Sires’ Produce Stakes?
Excellent win by Neat in the Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland minutes ago. Things are looking up.
I’ve already seen the movie…”The Last Wave”
Ha Ha Steve, well spotted, one of the better Australian movies of the 1970s by noted director Peter Weir.
With the Sires’ Produce Stakes it’s being run at 3:20 pm now, Sydney time. Moreover, unfortunately, the Golden Slipper winner Lady of Camelot has been scratched. Storm Boy is the red hot favorite.
I actually preferred “Picnic at Hanging Rock.”
I just finished making the best vanilla cake I have ever made to celebrate Steve’s late Birthday. While I was vigorously whisking I suddenly recalled Dornoch exploit is the Remsen… a bit odd but it somehow made me feel a bit of the heat in those last yards…
The Blue Grass will be the much anticipated rematch between Dornoch and Sierra Leone after their epic bout in the Remsen Stakes. This was one of the most exciting and prolific Stakes among all the Derby preps last year. However, the Remsen left us with the question as to which one is the better horse.
You may say that Dornoch had the advantage of having 3 starts since July against a Sierra Leone who was coming off a maiden win to face 6 horses with Stakes experience at a testing distance of 1 1/8 mile. The average Brisnet Speed Rating for the group of Sierra Leone’s rivals in the Remsen was a remarkable 91.1 with a 96 at the top … those 2-year-olds were really fast.
Sierra Leone showed a lack of maturity when he dropped back 13 lengths the first quarter mile behind a nimble Dornoch who was having a gainful trip skimming the rail.
Sierra Leone made a gigantic run in the stretch to catch and put half a length in front of Dornoch the last furlong but in an impressive display of grit the son of Good Magic regained the lead superbly responding to the urging of Luis Saez. You may argue that Sierra Leone lost because Jose Ortiz drifted close to Dornoch after a mid-track trip but still Dornoch’s explosive reaction reveals his exceptional ability.
In the Risen Star Sierra Leone seemed to have become a more professional runner thanks to the blinkers. He is able now to run in mid pack before launching his devastating late run.
Keeneland’s odds-maker has Sierra Leone at 2-1 against the 3-1 of Dornoch in the Blue Grass where the pace setup would likely be similar to that of the Remsen. It is probable Dornoch will be trying to draw clear on the last turn but Sierra Leone has shown he can catch a thunder light before the finish line….
I am sure there will be a lot of fans rooting for any one of the two Derby challengers. It will be an exciting race … and I will be making another cake to celebrate both of them…
With a 7W move at the top of the lane and subsequent drifting to the rail. Sierra Leone covered more ground than every other Rensen entrants.
Dornoch had more than an advantage of 3 starts,
Is my slice on the way?
LOL. .Next one…it’s already eaten
HA HA, just my luck.
Guess I will have to settle for my vanilla cream Dunkin Donut.
Lynda:
Those are very tasty and are my favorite!
Good analysis, Nelson. The track profile and the BG history favors early speed. That puts Dornoch and Just a Touch ahead of Sierra Leone. At 2-1 or less, SL is a risk.
With this being the last weekend of big preps and several slow weeks before the final push,. I am goingto slip in a very long, but well-deserved column Monday April 15 on the behind the scenes story of Smarty Jones on the 20th anniversary of his Kentucky Derby victory. Part 2 on the Peakness and Belmont Stakes will appear prior to the Belmont. If it seems warranted I will post a modified Derby Rankings on that Thursday and move Smarty Jones to the archive, but nothing has been decided yet. I do want to have the Smarty column accessible to as many people as possible in the time allotted. It will be mostly a re-worked compilation of everything I have ever written about Smarty Jones, having covered that Triple Crown for Blood-Horse. But if events dictate we have a Derby Rankings that week I will split it between the two. After that the Rankings will return in full force , covering works and observations followed by a Handicapping column on Derby week.
(This post will be repeated next week)
Thank you!
Looking forward to the columns on Smarty.
One of my most beloved Derby and Preakness winners!
I was in tears when he lost the Belmont and will probably shed more tears when I read the columns.
I liked Birdstone, but I still find it hard to watch that race, so I don’t
That’s the only Derby I’ve attended in person. I was on a flight to Germany when the Belmont ran and I tried to get the results when I got to my hotel, but Ronald Reagan had died. I knew Smarty had lost as I knew there would have been coverage of a Triple Crown even with a presidential death.
Agree Mr. Haskin! When Zenyatta lost never watched replay after all these years.
I would love to know where the more immediate connections have ended up!
My connection to this horse was somewhat personal. When Smarty Jones won the KY Derby, it was the first of many times that I got to see my former high school teachers, Dan and Beth Pride, among the celebrating connections at a nationally televised race!
Mr. Pride took us on a trip to tour colleges, Fall of 1998. It was a memorable trip. I mostly rode shotgun, and read him his DRF and Bloodhorse issues while he drove. (Until I came down with Strep throat, and had to move to Strangles quarantine at the back of the van).
The following summer, the Prides moved to KY to follow Dan’s dream of working with TBs. A lot of people thought he was crazy. As it turns out, if he was, he was crazy like a fox! He’s been there, done all of that for many years now – and been involved with some of the coolest horses of this century.
We haven’t been in touch probably in 20 years, but I still value the encouragement the Prides gave me to follow my own dream of working with horses. I still like seeing them in the winners circle, too!
I’m joining the chorus of happy birthday wishes, Steve. Hope you had a wonderful day. (Mine is coming up the 10th, and it’s the big 7-0. How can this be? I’m still so immature!)
Thanks Ms B. I ask myself the same question
Ah yes, Ms. B., I’m 80 and have been called immature. May we never grow up and remain Forever Young. Mmm, now that name rings a bell. lol
My mind says I am still in my 20’s. My body disagrees every morning when I get up and get these creaky bones oiled up with a pot of coffee.
Every night before I fall asleep, I vow to wake up in the morning. I haven’t failed yet! Every day is a blessing.
Happy belated birthday to the all-time greatest racing writer.
Glad to get your insights and thoughts about this years 3 year old Kentucky Derby prospects. I like the rest of your fans look forward to this spring ritual….
After learning of your choice of meals I realize that perhaps you think like a horse because you eat like one too.
Resilience (Mar 24) Equibase – 93
El Grande O (Feb 3) Equibase – 94
Lonesome Boy (May 10) Equibase – 88
Deterministic (Jan 30) Equibase – 99
Protective (Mar1) Equibase – 85
Evening News (May 30) Equibase – 98
Merit (Feb 1) Equibase – 98
Elysian Meadows (Feb 28) Equibase – 84
Tuscan Sky (Feb 19) Equibase – 99
Gettysburg Address (May 16)
Equibase – 84Society Man (Apr 19) Equibase – 92
Deposition (May 6) Equibase – 75
Uncle Heavy (May 2) Equibase – 95
Deterministic is a full 4 months older than Evening News whose DOB is only superseded by the off the trail Parchment Party, who has an early June DOB.
Despite the 4 months difference in age. Evening News’ last out Equibase figure (98) is just 1 point below Deterministic last out figure (99) assigned for his Gotham win.
From an Equibase speed figure perspective. Deterministic’s ML of 7/5 and Evening News’ ML of 20/1 makes absolutely no sense. Of the two colts, Evening News is likely to be the one experiencing the greater improvement given his DOB.
Tuscan Sky was a last out winner of an AOC over 8 1/2F. Evening New was a last out winner of an AOC over 8F geared down. Tuscan Sky ML is 4/1.
If Evening News can emulate his All-Weather performance on dirt. This colt must be live in the Wood as a late foal (May 30) showing such rapid improvement shouldn’t be taken. lightly.
Hey Counter Point
Just to show how speed figures differ, Deterministic was assigned a Brisnet Speed figure of 99, the same speed figure that he received from Equibase for his Gotham win.
However, Evening News was assigned a Brisnet Speed figure of 87 for his last out allowance win, a full 12 points below Deterministic. Go figure.
Thanks Bill.
Evening News was $300K select sale yearling. The connections got rid of him for $50K. What advise did trainer Steve Asmussen provide the colt’s owners Three Chimney?
As May 30 foal, he was only 2yrs and 3 months old when he made his 1st start. Is he as good on dirt as he is on all-weather? The Nyquist/Bernardini cross seems to run on any surface.
He will be forwardly placed and appears to have a good turn of foot. If he is good enough, I expect him to be in the mix when the final results are being decided.
Could it be an oldest with the youngest exacta?
Happy belated 77th birthday, Steve. May you have many more to follow.
I, along with your many followers, depend on your horse racing knowledge to guide us along the Derby trail, year after year.
BTW, I turned 84 this past January, and hope to be around for a few more years before I’m sent out to pasture.
Thanks very much Bill. Keep going strong. The Derby keeps you young.
Happy Birthday fellow Aries, mine is on Sunday. I do miss the old NY suicide route for Derby when the Gotham would fall this weekend but I guess the Wood will do! The best gift we all can give you is the love for you and your work and how much it makes our lives sweeter. Just like the sweetest two minutes in sports!
Thank you so much, Derek. That is very kind of you and means a lot to me. And an early Happy Birthday to you. Hard to fathom the Gotham being run this weekend, but they ran every two weeks back then,
Oops, as usual, I’m a day late and a dollar short.
Happy Birthday! Steve. You’re like a fine wine…. you seem to get better with age. Stay healthy, my friend, as we have many more horse tales to share.
I really appreciate that Dewey, thank you! But I’ think I might be fermenting more than aging
Well, research is showing that fermented foods are very healthy! Not everyone likes kimchi but some of us understand it’s glory. A lot like racing, these days.
Blue Grass Stakes…..Seize The Grey is very intriguing coming back in two weeks after a solid 3rd in the Jeff Ruby Stakes.
The son of Arrogate has the perfect balance of massive speed with massive stamina. Not a big fan of his trainer, however, he is talented enough to get a board hit and receive enough points for a Derby gate.
An over raced horse as usual
Correct Counter Point.
Agree regarding the trainer.
I just learned that today is your birthday. I hope you have had a very happy day.
I did thank you very much
Happy Birthday Steve, and many more happy, healthy ones to follow. Even though I don’t comment very often here like I did when you were with Bloodhorse, and after I found out where you were, I haven’t missed a single week of the Derby Rankings. When ever I talk about the Kentucky Derby with friends and family, your name always enters the conversation. It is your commitment to excellence that is always evident in your writings and the stories you have shared over the years have really been great! By the way, I still have that picture of Red with the stick in his mouth at the fence, my favorite.
All the best Steve,
JR
Thank you so much JR. That is very kind of you. I really appreciate it
RISE STAR
Sierra Leone 1st
Track Phantom 2nd – 1st LeComte G3; 1st Gun Runner (Black Type)
Catching Freedom 3rd – 1st Smarty Jones (listed)
AK DERBY
Muth 1st
Just Steel 2nd – 1st Ed Brown (B/Type); 2nd Smarty Jones (listed); 2nd Southwest G3
Mystik Dan 3rd- 1st Southwest G3
L A DERBY
Catching Freedom 1st
Honor Marie 2nd – 1st Kentucky Jockey Club
Tuscan Gold 3rd – last out MSW winner
JEFF RUBY
Endlessly 1st
West Saratoga 2nd- 1st Iroquois G3; 2nd Pasco ( BlackType); 3rd Sam Davis G3
Sizwe The Grey 3rd – 1st AOC, 4th Iroquois G3
F L DERBY
Fierceness 1st
Catalytic 2nd – 2nd AOC 6F; 1st MSW 61/2F
Grand Mo the First 3rd – 3rd Tampa Bay Derby G3; 3rd Swale (listed)
Above are the top 3 finishers in the 100 points KD preps. Does Fierceness deserve to be 4/5 in the KDFP ahead of the Wood, SA Derby and Blue Grass?
The colt’s best opponent in the FL Deby emerged as a 2nd place finisher in 6F AOC who had never raced beyond 6 1/2F.
Guys this makes no sense.
Happy ______seventh birthday Steve.
Thanks for being a role model for many of us.
All my adult life I have been striving to be like you…
A VEGETARIAN!
Lol. Thank you very much Nelson. I appreciate the kind words.
P.S, Have a carrot on me
Happy Birthday, Steve!!!
Thanks so much for making the road to the Derby so enjoyable and informative!!!
I hope your day was a special one!
Happy Birth Day Steve
Cheers !
Thanks JC
Thank you very much Biggy . It’s an honor to write for the people here. Everyone is great.
Best birthday wishes Steve thanks for all u do !
Thank you Nick, I appeciate it
Happy Birthday, Steve, and thank you for bringing happiness (and knowledge!) to so many racing fans!
I really appreciate that. Thanks so much.
The Santa Anita Derby doesn’t look right with a couple of BB second teamers leading the way. Maybe there is an opening for another trainer to score a big win. I want to take a shot with Mc Vay. But he has to calm down. The comments in his first 2 races say that he was climbing and my own observation in his last race is that he was rank. That was besides being interfered with going into the first turn. Mc Vay is only 5-1 on the morning line, but I can see him going higher if bettors go crazy with the 2 BBs and even Stronghold. I hope that field stays intact. Mc Vay is a good looking horse. Looks better than his form. Keep him cool Hector. That could be the key to an upset. The trainer’s record at the current Santa Anita meet is lousy, but maybe he’s due. Or overdue depending on how you look at it.
I hope Dornoch and Sierra Leone are 1,2 again; and Deterministic wins. They could be among the top horses in the Kentucky Dby if so. I think Stronghold could be very good and expect him to win the SA Dby, he would also be a top horse if so. I’m curious to see how Tuscan Sky and Be You do, I don’t expect too much of them in the Wood, would be fine if they exceeded expectations.
My post isn’t meant as a reply to the post above it, I thought it was a new thread.
Yes Mc Vay is a beautiful horse but needs to settle in his races better …I was there for his San Felipe, he did get mugged by Scatify on the clubhouse turn .. his recent works are terrific, I think he has a big race in him! But give me more than 5-1 please!
Somebody just dropped approx $20K down on Fierceness in the KDFW!! He’s now 4-5. WOW!
Bill Dawson was that you!!?? LOL
Must be nice to throw money around like that!!
No. It was Counter Point. He’s been working overtime to dissuade horseplayers from betting on his true Derby horse.
That is funny!
With 64 starters in 24 KDs with two lucky winners. I would bet the house on a TP entrant. Let’s face it, the guy knows how to win the KD.
Probably some CDI employee
Probably some barn in CA.
No, that was not me, I don’t have that kind of money to “throw around”.
Back in January, I swung for the fences in Derby Futures Pool 3. The bulk of the money that I used in placing my $40.00 win wagers came from house money that I won on two superfecta wins. While we’re on the subject of money, I’ll make a deal with you. I won’t tell you how to spend your money, if you don’t tell me how I should spend my money. Deal?
Bill, sorry, I didn’t mean any disrespect with my comment, I just know you and I like playing the futures that’s all. It was meant to be funny…..
No problem, Bruce.
When I first read your post, it appeared that you were trying to get a little dig on my Futures bets. Sometimes, other people’s humor escapes me. This was one of the times.
Good luck with your Futures bets.
I dropped $160 on Top Conor in last wager … $11 grand if he some how wins the derby !
$160 hurts in budget … but I believe …
“I’ll Have Another “
You never know!
For various reasons, this year’s running of the Santa Anita Derby hasn’t drawn the attention that it has in past years. Suffice to say, the SA Derby will take a back seat to the Wood Memorial, and the Blue Grass as well, IMO. I haven’t spent a lot of time researching the entrants in SA Derby, but it appears Imagination is the horse to beat, and the morning ine odds (8/5) reflect that. The bulk of wagers will target the Wood and the Blue Grass. However, I will set aside $24.00 to place a superfecta p/w wager in the SA Derby. I’ll key Imagination on top, with Tapalo, Stronghold, Wynstock and E J Won the Cup underneath. That is: 4/ 2,3,5,8
If E J Won the Cup manages to finish 2nd, the superfecta payout should be decent.
Happy Birthday Steve, and many more. Hope all is well.
Looking forward to the preps and hoping Tuscan Sky can take a step in the right direction. I really like the look of this colt and feel we have not seen his best. Sierra Leone just needs a good gut tightener, win or lose. A tough battle to the line is all I want to see from him. Thanks for all you hard work on the spotting and sharing the details on these marvelous athletes. I never like to compare them to other years, just appreciate them for what they are and what they give us each year. Cheers my good man.
Thank you very much EK I appeciate it
It doesn’t feel right that Christophe Clement has a Derby contender with Deterministic. So, I looked it up. This would be his first starter in America’s most famous race. I consider Christophe Clement one of our best turf trainers. But he did win the Belmont. I hope he and his horse make it to Churchill.
Same for Phil D’Amato and Stronghold.
After Tuscan Sky beat Nash at Fair Grounds, people were looking at Nash as sort of a punching bag. However, in my mind, Nash redeemed himself at Oaklawn with a big win. Albeit against lesser. I now look at that Fair Grounds race as a quality win even if it was basically a match race. Tuscan Sky already has a win over the Aqueduct surface. Let’s see how he does on a fast track. Does he go favored? Maybe. Steve Haskin has Deterministic ranked higher, but I’m going to take a shot with Tuscan Sky. Not much of a shot. I think that he is the second favorite on the morning line.
Just curious but who in this crowd likes “Encino” in the Blue Grass Stakes?
Downthestretch, I placed a bet on Encino in Pool #6 earlier today. He was 65-1 at the time; he is currently at 37-1. This Goldolphin homebred by Nyquist out of Glittering Jewel (Bernardini) appears to have an abundance of stamina and speed in his pedigree. Winning the John Battaglia last out, he has a record of 3-2-1-0 and has two sharp works over the Keeneland surface. I expect Encino to give a good account of himself in the Blue Grass in his quest for Derby points. He has 20 points and needs a 3rd or better finish to safely qualify. The Derby distance of 1 1/4 m. should suit Encino just fine. The Blue Grass will tell us a lot.
Are you aware that Cox has taken “Concepcion” off the horse and replaced him with F Prat. Concepcion had 2 wins and a 2nd in the horses previous (and only) 3 races. lf you haven’t see his PP go to DRF and look at Saturday’s RACE of the DAY. How would you want Prat to ride him in the Blue Grass? My preference would be for him get him to about mid pack going into the first turn and stalking the leaders until the turn coming into the stretch. One of his win’s did come on the frontend but he was able to control the frontend pace (they were crawling in that race) don’t think he could that in this race. Just your thoughts on were you would like to see him in this race???
Well, first let me say that any time that you replace Alex Concepcion with Flavien Prat you’re getting an upgrade in riding skills. I consider Flavien Prat one of the top five jockeys in America. Second, I don’t like to tell jockeys how to ride my horse. If I give a rider a leg up, especially one of Prat’s calibre, I leave the riding to him. Prat will most likely try to get an alert break from the outside post and maneuver Encino into a favorable position going into the first turn. As I don’t believe that there will be a fast pace in the Blue Grass, I think that Prat will be content to be attending the pace in 3rd or 4th.
Remember, Dornoch will not be asked for a lot of speed early as they are trying to get him to rate better. This is a teaching lesson for him.
I’m really looking forward to the Blue Grass to see how it unfolds.
Good luck, Downthestretch!
Dewey what you said is exactly the way I would want him to be ridden ( maybe even 5th or 6th) but with 2 slow breakers next to him I am worried Prat will try and hot rod him to the front and try and race him to the lead in which case I can see the horse fading in the stretch. Concepcion on the other hand knows the horse and was given an Eclipse award for being the top apprentice jockey of 2023 and the 14th leading jockey in the country last year in wins. He has ridden for Cox. I don’t get the need for the jockey change.
Like you said will see what unfolds and good luck to you too !!!
I wrote about his pedigree a few weeks ago.
Eldar Eldarov (Dubawi – All At Sea (Sea The Stars) who was withdrawn from the Dubai Gold Cup after an incident in the start gate is recovering from a neck fracture he received in the incident. Two vets from the United States were flown in to determine the mature of the injury and evaluate his injury and performed the surgery to stabilize his neck. While he still has a long way to go, things are moving in a positive direction. His racing career is over and it is an unknown if he can have a career as a breeding stallion. (As reported on TDN).
Derma Sotoga is recovering from an injury he sustained to the right side of his head in the start gate in the Dubai World Cup. He will be fine per a post on X.
The great Brigadier Gerard’s quest to win 18 consecutive races was foiled by Roberto. Zenyatta’s quest to win 20 consecutive races was foiled by Blame.
Blame was sired by Arch, a son of Kris S who was a son of Roberto. I doubt anyone would have imagined that after Roberto denied Brigadier Gerard his 18th win in a row. His great, great grandson would also deny another phenomenal racehorse her 20th consecutive win.
Why the highlighting of these heartbreaking denials? Epic Ride
Roberto was a son of Hail To reason. The Hail to Reason sire line also features Halo, who was the sire of the foundation of Japanese breeding, Sunday Silence and the not so famous Sunny’s Halo. Both were KD winners. The Hail To Reason line is being kept active in America by progenies of ARCH and DYNAFORMER.
The 2010 BCC winner Blame was sired by Arch. The Blue Grass Stakes entry Epic Ride was sired by Blame. It’s not very often a prospect that trace back to Hail To Reason shows up on the KD Trail. So, when one does the obvious question has to be. Can any overcome the strength in numbers featured by the Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer and Seattle Slew lines?
Epic Ride is an interesting prospect. He appears to be the only participant in a KD prep that has carried 124lbs. That’s the weight he carried when he finished second by 1L to Encino in the John Battaglia whilst allowing the winner 6lbs. All his races have been on the All-Weather surface at Turfway Park. He will switch to dirt in the BG.
Could the surface switch transform Epic Ride into a formidable KD contender? That is to be determined. But if it does; a colt sired by a BCC winner out of a Gio Ponti mare should possess the speed and stamina to win the KD.
He is a May foal and should be rapidly strengthening as he approaches his 3YO birth date. He breezed 5F in 59 flat, over the dirt surface at Keeneland. If dirt turns out to be this colt preferred surface and if he possesses the class. He could use his tactical and his stamina laden pedigree to upset the BG field.
Epic Ride has Blame as a sire and Roberto in his 4th generation. There is upset potential in his blood.
Good read! I’m a sucker for the historical references. I’m probably not betting this race, but if I do I’ll give another long look at Epic Ride.
Brigadier Gerard’;s quest was to win 16 of 16 and equal Ribot’s record. John Galbreath brought Braulio Baeza to ride Roberto and to ride him like an American horse. He shot out of the gate, ran The Brigadier off his feet and drew off to set a new course record.
Thanks Steve! You and Counter Point got me intrigued enough to do some Googling and I discovered a new (to me) Turf writer named Tony Morris who wrote a very enjoyable article about Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard and the upset by Roberto and Baeza..
I became interested in Horse Racing in 1980 at the age of 13. Rumbo was my first Derby pick, but I followed that disappointment by picking Codex in that exciting Preakness…. I was hooked. My first big cash was on a horse called Shimatoree who carried with him 6 months worth of lawn mowing money. My Uncle had to hound the local bookmaker to get him to pay me and then he blackballed me from any future wagers 🙂
Anyway, I’ve been interested in Horse Racing for a long time, but I’ve somehow missed on most of the great stories from before my time. I’m a little embarrassed by all that I don’t know. That said it’s also kind of awesome that I just found out about this Brigadier Gerard story today. Those kind of stories are like Christmas presents for me and it’s fun to realize I still have a lot of unopened presents under the Horse Racing tree..
Jim, Tony Morris used to write for The Sporting Life and Racing Post until retirement. Buy his books, the most respected bloodstock writer in Europe.
Here’s a treat, if you go to the Thoroughbred Racing Commentary website they have a selection of Morris’s “100 Shapers of the Breed Articles,” you’ll be engrossed.
Happy Birthday, Steve, best wishes. Just with Brigadier Gerard’s loss, many believe it was the left handed way of going which upset ‘the Brigadier.’ It was the first and only time he raced left handed.
Joe Mercer claimed that, after the race, Brigadier Gerard coughed up a huge amount of mucus on returning back to his stall but this has been disputed. Brigadier Gerard looks a picture of health at York so I believe it was the left handed way of going. The only time I saw ‘the Brigadier’ live and he got beaten, I was totally shocked.
CP good points on Epic Ride. In his last race he looked like he he was climbing going around the first turn going into the back stretch then settled down when he made his move on the far turn the jock on Encino move with him. At the top of stretch he looked like a winner but Encino ran him down…. Was the 6lb weight difference that made the difference??? Hard to say it will a tough call with him.
Just dropping by to wish our fearless leader, Steve Haskin, a very Happy Birthday!
Good luck everyone on your selections in this weekend’s prep races and safe racing for all.
Thank you very much, Lynda
Happy Birthday Mr. Haskin!
Thank you Mike
IN THE WOOD WATCH OUT FOR #10. RJJ
Love your comments on Just Steel. Very courageous horse, runs, like you said, just like in the old days when horses ran races on a regular basis. With Baffert blocked from the Derby, I would love to see his good buddy Lukas win the race.
Thanks Paddy. Glad to see you here. Hope you keep coming back. I think you will like next week’s comments on Just Steel even more, Lol
I love the way Just Steel is bred. No Fappiano in his pedigree, which I sure hope will help in the soundness department – especially campaigning like he is with the Coach!
Re: Wood Memorial, morning line odds.
1) Resilience, 6-1
2) El Grande O, 8-1
3) Lonesome Boy, 50-1
4) Deterministic, 7/5
5) Protective, 30-1
6) Evening News, 20-1
7) Merit, 20-1
8) Elysian Meadows, 15-1
9) Tuscan Sky, 4-1
10) Gettysburg Address, 30-1
11) Society Man, 30-1
12) Deposition, 50-1
13) Uncle Heavy, 8-1
And the winner is: Deterministic, the Alpha Male. 🙂
The Nyquist over Bernardini cross seems to be a match made in heaven. See below:
Nysos – Nyquist – Zetta Z by Bernardini – Undefeated in 3 starts.
Knightsbridge – Nyquist – Tyburn Book by Bernardini – Undefeated in 2 starts.
Encino – Nyquist – Glittering Jewel by Bernardini – 2 win from 3 starts. A NK away from being undefeated. Must be dangerous in dirt debut in the Blue Grass
Evening News – Nyquist – Prieta by Bernardini – From 3 starts as a 3YO, 2 wins 1 second.
Entrant in the Wood Memorial.
It is indeed unfortunate that neither Nysos nor Knightsbridge will be in the KD as both appear to be the best of the quartet.
Evening News triggers memories of Rich Strike. The owners of Rich Strike pulled the get rid of plug early with Rich Strike. After a last place finish on debut Rich Strike was entered in a $30K Maiden Claimer and was duly claimed. The rest is history,
After 6th and 9th place finishes in his first two starts. The get rid of plug was pulled on the $300,000 Select Sale Yearling. The colt was entered in a $50K maiden claimer. He displayed never before seen tactical speed over 6 1/2F to finish 3rd by 3L. No claims were submitted. In his 4th start in another $50k maiden claimer over 8F, he won and was claimed.
The new connection stepped him up to and AOC level where he finished 2nd by 1L over 8f. His next start was at the Allowance level over the similar distance of 8F. He won by 8 1/4L pulling a bus.
Evening News is a May 30th foal who appears to be improving rapidly. His final time for the 2Turn mile at Turfway Park which he led from gate to wire, was 1:37 plus. He covered the last furlong in 11.86 eased before the line.
He is a big far striding colt with a dam line laden with stamina to carry his tactical speed. His only breeze located after his last out win, was a 5F bullet in 59.40 on dirt at CD.
Is this another Rich Strike in the making? Hard to say. However, he was a select sale yearling. Consequently, he must have scored high in the conformation and other categories.
I recommend using this colt in exotic.
Empire Makers won FL Derby by 9 3/4L -; 2nd KD
Bellamy Road won the Wood by 17 1/2L in 1:47.16 a (NTR) KD also ran.
Firing Line won the Sunland Derby by 14 3/4L in 1:47.39 (NTR) 2nd KD
Bodemeister won the AK Derby by 9 1/2L in 1:48.71 – 2nd KD
The Kentucky Derby has made perceived special horses appear modest and modest horses appear special if only on the 1st Saturday in May.
Fierceness best opponent in the FL Derby emerged as a last out AOC runner-up that I recommended for use in exotics. Consider the following. Remove Fierceness from the field and there FL Derby would have been won by 2 1/2L by an AOC runner-up making its 2nd start after spending 5 months away from the races.
Mr. Point, it looks like you cherry-picked to make your argument against Fierceness (I’ll note that he won’t be taking my money on Derby day). Plenty of horses have won their final preps impressively by 5-8 lengths, but you set the bar at 9.5 lengths. And are those four the only ones with 9.5+ winning margins? So you give those four as examples of disappointing runners, yet three of them came in SECOND in the Kentucky Derby. That’s a pretty impressive achievement, to finish 2nd in America’s most important and famous race.
It should be mentioned that Firing Line at 9-1 was not the Derby favorite, but he lost by only a length to a colt named American Pharoah, who won the Arkansas Derby by EIGHT lengths, and went on to win the Triple Crown.
With regard to the quality of the Fla Derby field, it was typical of Derby preps. And as I commented a couple of days ago, horses from perceived good fields often perform below expectations in the derby, while horses from perceived mediocre fields often perform above expectations and win the derby.
A reply would be most appreciated.
The only one you will probably get is from me. so — Well said!
LOL. Thanks!
POV should change his handle once more to Cherry Pick. It’s seems to be his most consistent and favored method of making his point. His obsessive compulsive contempt for Todd Pletcher has manifested itself again with contempt for a talented horse that would be getting his praise right now were it not for his hay being in Todd’s barn. Elixirs on the house, it’s Derby Season!
Ms Blacktype, and anyone who may be interested, Storm Boy by Justify is favored over Lady of Camelot to take the Sires’ Produce Stakes, 2nd leg of the Australian 2 year old Triple Crown, at Royal Randwick on Saturday. This time Storm Boy will have the services of Australia’s top jockey in James McDonald. 5:20 PM Sydney time.
The prestigious T. J. Smith Stakes, Doncaster Mile and ATC Australian Derby are also on the Card Saturday, all Group 1 races. Riff Rocket by American Pharoah is favorite in the Australian Derby.
racingnsw dot com dot au show all the races live, gratis.
Expect a heavy track with showers throughout the day at Royal Randwick on Saturday. It never stops raining in Sydney while in Melbourne it never rains.
It sounds like the best place to live there is about halfway between Melbourne and Sydney. 🙂
No, Winston that is the bushfire areas. Ha ha Bushfires might be deadly next summer. Melbourne is basically ideal but I miss heavy rain and snow of course but you get used to watch you are given.
Alright then, I’ll settle for Melbourne. I’ll have a sprinkler system in my yard that gives the appearance of rainfall, so I can sing and dance through it.
Ha ha we had the first rain in 35 days on Wednesday. Meanwhile, by Saturday morning, Sydney will have had 12 inches of rain in 3 days. Climate change, indeed.
Thanks for the heads up, Davids!
Ms Blacktype, there is a possibility the racing may be canceled because of rain.
Ms Blacktype, worst news possible, Sydney is expecting around 10 inches of rain in the next 24 hours. Not good for Randwick – Storm Boy certainly apt name for the times. Stay posted.
After a nifty debut win Good Money was sent and battled… I’ll give him another chance Saturday, at a big number…
I like Mc Vay, expect more that 5-1 for the maiden …also Wynstock — trying to beat both favorites..
Yes, Matthew, let’s hope Mc Vay can hit the board but it won’t be easy. Tapalo could be interesting…
Tapalo has some nice works, I agree with you, Wynstock also has worked well, this isn’t a typical Santa Anita Derby but I like it!….It looks to me like the light has turned on, for Mc Vay—
Mac Vay is such a beautiful colt, I hope you’re right. Tapalo is intriguing but Baffert’s colts look so strong. Fingers crossed, all the best.
Matthew, I’m not seeing McVay doing better than 3rd. His efforts seem pedestrian, and there’s no evidence he can close strongly against a quick pace. Wynstock has potential as an upset choice, considering that his two wins were on fast tracks.
In the San Felipe, both Mc Vay and Scatify were rank going into the first turn. I’m going to give Mc Vay a shot on Saturday and hope that he can relax a little bit.
I’m not a fan of Wynstock. I prefer Imagination. But I can see where Imagination could react to running so hard in the San Felipe to beat stablemate Wine Me Up. Maybe Wynstock keeps going.
Saw Maymun work yesterday—4 days out, and thought Bob wasn’t going…..maybe not 100%, maybe going in Lexington? As a Preakness prep. I was not blown away by the work…
Matthew, Maymun is not nominated for the Lexington Stakes. Hopefully, they let the colt win a minor stakes race and build up from there. Woody Stephens Stakes on Belmont Stakes Day at Saratoga is a good target to aim for. Bayern is a precursor to success.
Davids I watched his April 2nd work, the rider was moving his hands some, and I thought of his debut, where rider was sitting still— Bob isn’t going to put a horse on a grade one unless he’s ready—I will patiently wait. ….Keeneland has a terrific card for Saturday, and after so many washed out days, Santa Anita has put up a good card, as well…and Aqueduct has put together the best betting prep of the season ….
Thanks Matthew, it’s disappointing about Maymun but there are plenty of other races down the track. Yes, Saturday cards for Aqueduct, Keeneland, and Santa Anita pump the fist and warm the heart. Can’t wait.
Apparently, BB wasn’t blown away by the work either.
Stronghold has a strong chance to win the Santa Anita Derby … and the powerful and big Mc Vay will use his huge strides to be in the mix as well…
Santa Anity Derby.Grade I
1 1/8m
Dirt
$750,000
3 yo
4:30 PM (local)
PP Horse……………………….. Jockey………………. Wgt…… Trainer
1 Curlin’s Kaos (CA) Diego A. Herrera …….124 Antonio C. Garcia
2 Tapalo (NY)………………… Umberto Rispoli …….124 John W. Sadler
3 Stronghold (KY)………. Antonio Fresu…………..124 Philip D’Amato
4 Imagination (KY)…….. Lanfranco Dettori……. 124 Bob Baffert
5 Wynstock (NY)………. Juan J. Hernandez…….124 Bob Baffert
6 Tessuto (KY)…………. Kazushi Kimura……. 124……. George Papaprodromou
7 Mc Vay (KY)……………. Hector Isaac Berrios……. 124 John A. Shirreffs
8 E J Won the Cup (KY)…….. Mike E. Smith……. 124 Doug F. O’Neill
Regarding the point situation in the Wood Memorial 10 horses need to finish first or second to qualify. Deterministic is the only one with 50 points and El Grande O (30 points) and Uncle Heavy (20 points) need only a 3rd to get into the Derby.
1- RESILIENCE, with 10 points needs 1st or 2nd
2- El Grande O, with 30 points needs at least a 3rd
3- Lonesome Bay, needs 1st or 2nd
4- Deterministic, Qualified with 50 points
5- Protective, needs 1st or 2nd
6- Evening News, needs 1st or 2nd
7- Merit, needs 1st or 2nd
8- Elysian Meadows, needs 1st or 2nd
9- TUSCAN SKY, needs 1st or 2nd
10- Gettysburg Address, needs 1st or 2nd
11- Society Man, needs 1st or 2nd
12- Deposition, needs 1st or 2nd
13- Uncle Heavy, with 20 points needs 2nd or 3rd
Hey Nelson
Just out of curiosity, was there a particular reason you used all caps to identify Resilience and Tuscan Sky? Just wondering.
Thanks
I have them in capital letters for they are the two new shooters I am expecting to emerge from the Wood Memorial.
I hope you’re right Nelson, I’ve got $40.00 win wagers on both, in Futures Pool 3.
Good luck to you, sir!
Thanks, Mike
Good luck to you as well.
Okay I have obviously missed something. What has happened to Shug McGauhey’s horse? Is he injured? I check out BloodHorse daily and I haven’t seen anything.
Not enough points to qualify for Derby entry.
Hey Steve … man this sucks having to watch a replay of two derby qualifying races taped and not on a day everyone waits to watch pre Derby Live ..just getting caught up on news…. today’s people see the Derby as one Day Derby to be a part and care nothing about the sport or the horses . o
I remember when I’ll Have Another won the derby and me and my buddy won $600 bucks ! And that Bodi was fast … we went to a camp fire after on my tractor to celebrate … enough details … Top Conor, a hockey reference of Top coner.. with Accent … hope he’s another “I’ll Have Another “!
Cheers !
I think 2 are live — SA Derby and Wood
Thanks Steve !
JC, you can watch the Wood Memorial live on YouTube through ‘America’s Day at the Races,’ the Santa Anita Derby live at Santa Anita’s website, and the Blue Grass Stakes live on Keeneland’s racing section of their website. Superior coverages to TV etc.
Is there a place we can find post time for those races?
Daily Racing Form have the full Cards for all these races.
Thanks Davids !
Perfect! Thank you!
CDI which shutters two historical and great venues, Hollywood Park and Arlington Park, now want to purchase Pimlico. Good grief. They will shutter Pimlico as quickly as possible. They have no end in destroying the industry.
A little dramatic.
The drama from HRN is starting to spill over here. Also, have to be careful not to offend the BB minions…..even though he’s not aware of their existence.
Agree regarding drama. Never fails with same one or two with plethora of names pushing same tired agenda.
We get it Mike. Your name , with others, is all plastered on numerous other horseracing websites on numerous other publications, explaining out your point.
That is, you hate Baffert We get it.
But where is Baffert listed as a Plaintiff on this lawsuit?
You spend a career going for bat for him. Have as much right to my view as anyone else.
Only one name for posting for myself.
Incorrect! My name isn’t “plastered” on another site. Haven’t posted there in four years. Get your facts straight!
Lots of drama on the Derby Trail today. Maymun out. He was supposed to be the star of Saturday’s show at Santa Anita. Amr Zedan trying to get an injunction to get Muth into the Derby. If some Judge grants it, can you imagine the chaos that would cause? Would all the Derby Future pools be refunded? Muth’s points that he would have earned in Arkansas could be given to him. Would they? Who knows? A horse that would have been in, gets thrown to the sidelines.
I don’t think that this is what the fans want. Instead of what looks like an open-ended suspension, Churchill should have either suspended BB for life or let him run after he served his suspension. About a month or so ago, I read an article in which the writer wrote something like The BB/Churchill situation hangs over the sport like an open wound. That about sums it up from my point of view. How could this drama get any crazier? If Muth gets into the Derby and “draws” the rail. That “special” post will probably be reserved for him.
We should be focusing on the 3 big Derby preps this weekend.
Excellent post Tommy.
I was just thinking, what about the fillies and The Oaks?
Would this injunction apply to them?
Lawsuit is, in the words of Ed Grimley, as doomed as doomed can be.
No chance!
Muth is a member of the Field in all pools which lists “All Other 3YR Olds as the Field. No mention or qualification that would not include him or any other horse.
Yes, Muth and about 17,000 three-year-olds would qualify as “all other.” Nevertheless, it’s a muth point!
Maymun out of SA Derby. No real reason given. Worked yesterday. Via LA Daily News Reporter “after seeing how the Santa Anita Derby was shaping up he (Baffert) said he wasn’t sure that colt was ready for 1 1/8 miles.” Very odd response and reminds me a bit of the Nysos surprise scratch from San Felipe (Baffert reportedly said he was waiting for SA Derby, but then Nysos was given a longterm break shortly thereafter). Hopefully Maymun isn’t hurt.
Hope Maymum is ok, 9f seemed too much too early so that’s a positive. The Met Mile or the Woody Stephens seemed closer to where the colt is now. Let’s wish for the best with Maymum.
Wash, rinse,repeat.
LOL. Baffert can’t win with you Mike. He’s doing what’s in the best of interest of the horse and your criticizing like he should run. Maymun I predict will run in Lexington similar to Arabian Lion
Jeff, you might be shocked of the number trainers who aren’t on my hit parade.
Mike, I am surprised we haven’t seen you protesting at some carnival stating the operators run the carousel horses too often and too hard !!! Your comments against Baffert have become irrelevant with me as they are without merit !!! He is a winner in my book !!!
Who cares what you think! Not everyone follows your point of view. Get over it!
What’s going on in that barn? Maymun would have been a huge favorite.
Could be a balancing act with his owners. Maymun is owned by Zedan who also also owns Muth who just won a $1.5 million pot in Ark Dby. May just want to share the wealth between his owners. He might feel these 2 (Imagination and Wynstock) are capable enough to win the SA Derby
I am so looking forward to seeing Stronghold (80-1 in KDFW5) in the SA Derby.
Me too!
Sorry. Stronghold was 48-1.
I am going to give my take last weeks 2 KD prep races. I will start first with the Fl Derby.
I went and watch the races several times and then went and watched the Holy Bull again several times and I have come away with 2 thoughts about the race. In the Holy Bull like I said in my earlier comments on the race .,,,, Fierceness looked like he needed a race and now after watching it again and again I will add that Pletcher woefully undertrained this horse for it. I was wondering why he skipped the FOY and realized now he knew he needed to really work this horse to get him into shape. Though I think he probably would have won it he might have had to work too hard to do it. My other observation with the FL Derby is his competition in that race is a weak bunch of 3 year olds or some but not all are going to be late bloomers. As far the Derby he deserves to be the favorite but again this is a Todd Pletcher trained horse but his record of getting a front runner to run 1 1/4 miles on the 1st Saturday in May is pretty dismal but this may be his best chance if Baffert horses aren’t allowed in the race and again this is a 20 horse field.
In the Arkansas Derby I can’t believe I let the “Doubting Thomas” in me (and of all weekends ) think that Baffert wouldn’t have Muth ready to run his best for this race.
But what really upset me was the ride Prat gave Timberlake. If I was the owner I would be furious with that ride and would have told Cox don’t ever put him on my horse again !!! Give me Christian Torres he rode him perfectly in the Rebel. Prat had no business going for the lead that early in the race. He should have had him back around 4th or 5th going around the 1st turn he is a stalker not a front runner. Prat ride cost him 2nd in this race. And on the back stretch why did Prat keep looking at Hernandez. Was he telling Hernandez… “Hey the fix is in it is your race to win I am going run my horse into the ground !!! ” Would he have beat Muth the other way ,,, probably not but I feel confident he would have gotten 2nd. Now with him off the Derby trail he is being pointed for shorter race ( IMO a mistake he is not a sprinter he just needs to be trained and ridden properly ). As far as Mystik Dan I got the ride I wanted except the jockey had him too wide (would have rather like seeing him on the rail early in the race and looks like there was opportunity for him to do that after the first turn but for some reason he made it a long race for him. Also I think he did get bothered by Liberal Arts on that 1st turn. Big surprise was JUST STEEL running a big race.. Just when you think he has had enough he runs a big race and totally impressed with his finish. This horse has now got a great base and who knows with a little luck you never know what can happen in the derby. Lukas just needs to keep him happy and on his toes.
Those are my thoughts. Some may agree some may not but that is what great about Steve’s column we are allowed to express our opinions.
Have a Great Week !!! Some interesting races coming this weekend and we will see were Zedan gets with his lawsuit.
Sounds to me like you lost money in the Ark Derby and you’re blaming it on Prat. The subsequent decision to take Timberlake off the Derby trail and shorten his distances confirms the colt’s disappointing performance at Oaklawn.
Agreed!
That was my impression as well Winston… if they were confident that Timberlake has a shot at 10 furlongs they would still have him going forward even if they thought that Prat was wrong in taking the lead against Muth.
Timberlake was the 4/5 favorite and if Prat decided that he was good enough to push the tempo no one should second guess him… a 4/5 favorite should not have lost with Just Steel and Mystik Dan. I don’t see any problem in acknowledging Timberlake is not good enough at this stage… His connections have to be commended for that decision … it will pay out on the long run.
Exactamundo, Nelson.
Winston and Nelson I guess you two accepted Ronnie Franklin’s ride on Spectacular Bid in the Belmont as he knows the horse better. Cox is probably not going to come out and state in public his dissatisfaction with Prat ride since he does have him on Catching Freedom but will see if he uses him again on him in the future? At least he didn’t come out and say the horse stepped on a safety pin before the race (LOL). As far as skipping the KD that is their prerogative as I have always said it is more of a spectacle than a race.
I really have nothing to add to what I already said. As for Spectacular Bid, I wasn’t into horse racing at that time. Regarding the Derby: It’s a race!
Zedan has zero shot!
RE: Wood Memorial Post Positions:
1) Resilience
2) El Grande O
3) Lonesome Bay
4) Deterministic
5) Protective
6) Evening News
7) Merit
8) Elysian
9) Tuscan Sky
10) Gettysburg Address
11) Society Man
12) Deposition
13) Uncle Heavy
Edit to say Elysian Meadows, in P/P 8
Mr Bill good luck with Deterministic as I know you have high hopes for this horse. Let’s hope he more than a mud loving fool !!! He has his work cut out for him in this race but if he runs like he did in the Gotham he should do well.
Thanks, Downthestretch
Deterministic is the morning line favorite at 7/5, which is well deserved, IMO. Tuscan Sky should be right there in the late going as well.
This year’s running of the Wood Memorial could be the best we’ve seen in several years. Two longshots that look enticing are Evening News, at 20-1, and Protective at 30-1. After digging into Protective’s pedigree, there appears to be a ton of stamina on his dam side. His dam, Grace Hall was a Grade 1 winning router, with over a million dollars in career earnings. HIs dam’s sire, Empire Maker, needs no introduction, nor does his sire, Medaglia d’Oro, both were graded routers.
Just for the hell of it, I’ll place a $10.00 WPS on Protective.
Good luck to you as well.
RE: Wood Memorial
Under a beautiful Tuscan Sky, Deterministic Resilience, Merits a grand reward moving forward on the Derby trail.
Boxing those four, in a superfecta wager, could be rewarding.
Is that haiku, Bill? Ah right, too many syllables. Nice effort though!
Obviously, my post was grammatically incorrect, I was just trying to instill a little humor on a dull Wednesday afternoon.
You misunderstood Ms Blacktype’s comment. I liked your wordplay, too.
Thanks, Winston
What Winston said!
I think Society Man is ready to get a piece but I’m all over Tuscan Sky and Deterministic
Hey Bill, do you recall a few weeks ago asking about Valentine Candy and whether Steve Asmussen had any plans to run him in a Derby prep? I replied telling you not only wasn’t Valentine Candy Triple Crown nominated, the runner-up in their debut had a better chance of being a Derby contender. Well, even though he’s still a maiden, that same runner-up’s trainer (Todd Pletcher) has entered him in the Wood Memorial. #5, Protective deserves to be an underlay at anything less than 50/1.
Hey Counter Fit
Yes, I recall your Valentine Candy post, and thanks for the heads up on Protective. I didn’t notice that he was beaten by VC in his first out maiden race.
Protective is well bred, by Medaglia d’Oro, out of an Empire mare, but aside from that, I don’t see a lot to get excited about. It appears Pletcher must see promise in his colt, or he wouldn’t have entered him in a G2 race. I’ll will look elsewhere in the Wood field to find the horses that I will use in my superfecta p/w wager.
As it stands now, I’ll key Deterministic and Tuscan Sky on top in the first two slots, with Resilience, El Grande O, Evening News, Merit and Uncle Heavy underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 4,9/ 4,9/ 1,2,6,7,13/ 1,2,6,7,13 (cost: $40.00)
Good luck with that! I can see Protective at the bottom of the superfecta.
Based on your recommendation, I just might add him in the 3rd and 4th slots. The cost will increase to $60.00 for that super p/w. No problem.
New ticket: 4,9/ 4,9/ 1,2,5,6,7,13/ 1,2,5,6,7,13
Should Protective clunk up, all credit to Valentine Candy. Lol
Like that Bill!
Thanks, Lynda.
Zedan suing CDI.
Narcissism knows no bounds. He claims to have spent $10 million on six horses in 2022 in the hopes of winning the KD this year.
Yet, he knew that BB was suspended and he took a gamble. There are no guarantees in this game. What a waste of time, $$$ and courts resources.
What gamble? There are dozens of top trainers, any one of which could have had Zedan’s horses ready to try for the Derby. He chose not to take that course. Too bad. Case gets thrown out of court.
Funny that he decides to sue days after winning the Arkansas Derby and realizing he can win the Kentucky Derby. It’s like why didnt I think of that possibility. I took my horses away the last 2 years and now I dont when I have a big shot to win
Cha Ching!
Winning the Arkansas Derby is one thing. Possibly “winning the KD” is a whole other challenge.
In January, BB and Zedan issued a statement saying that they were dropping an appeal of a Kentucky Horse Racing Commission decision to suspend Baffert. Not long after…..BB issued the following statement.
“Zedan Racing’s owner, Amr Zedan, and I have decided that it is best to positively focus on the present and future that our great sport offers,” Baffert said in a social-media post. “We thank the KHRC and Churchill Downs for listening and considering our point of view and we are grateful for the changes and the clarity that HISA brings to our sport.”
As I said earlier…Narcissism knows no bounds!
CDI should NOT have extended the 2 year ban on Baffert. He has had zero positives in 3 years. Now if they initially banned him 3 years, then people would have been more accepting then emotionally making a rash decision just extending a year with no facts or reasoning. It is pathetic this is about a cream application for a rash that was barely traceable. CDI has very poor judgement going within their walls, and I am glad they are getting sued.
Besides your biased opinion….do you know why CDI extended the ban for a third year? Has nothing to do with positives.
Has everything to do being vindictive….
Question…who are you calling narcissistic? If you are refering to Baffert then you must be know that he (Baffert) is not a plaintiff in this lawsuit.
Are you following the thread from the top?
Just a simple question because you quoted Baffert in a ‘social-media post’? If you believe that Amir Zendan is narissistic then plainly say it.
Trainer and owner are both narcissistic.Zedan had every chance to place horses with another barn.
I think this about future years, since Zedan and Baffert will have many more opportunities to win the KD. This might be more than what meets the eyes, possibly CDI signaling a larger suspension.
Wouldn’t be surprised if CDI suspends Zedan Racing for insubordination. How dare they sue…. the audacity!
LOL.
Like his trainer narcissism on every level.
I always say … Better late than never !!! He tried the other way and it didn’t work. It like trying to win the INDY 500 and the weeks before the big race they take your crew chief away from you and giving you a backyard mechanic. It’s like taking Phil Jackson from Jordan and Pippen during those golden years and putting in Bobby Knight .. great coach but different way of doing things. Belichick from Brady and Patriots and putting in Dion Sanders again different way of doing things. Them taking Leonard from you and you trying to keep this blog going !!!!
I expected better from you Steve !!!!
Downthestretch, what’s wrong with you? Zedan’s chances are zero.
I don’t think Baffert or Zeden thought Muth was their top gun in the barn even with him being so solid and the bloodlines proving they get better with age. I think it’s a blessing in Disguise and Muth may be the one this yr to have the best record
Bravo!
It’s interesting that the judge in the case scheduled a hearing immediately. That’s a sign that the judge thinks the suit has merit and has a good chance of prevailing in the case, according to the drf and the retired business journalist sitting in my living room.
We’ll see.
With regard to the experience factor, I think that Just A Touch and Deterministic will be at a disadvantage with just one 1-turn race going into the Derby.
No doubt about it. They have to run huge to pull it off but people, myself included, are counting on them to be special.
Tapit Trice, last year’s BG winner, came from nearly 10 lengths back on a slow, outside-biased Keeneland surface. What kind of track might we get this year?
Since 2015, when Keeneland returned to a dirt track, every Blue Grass Stakes has been won by a presser/stalker type. I expect the same on Saturday. Tapit Trice may not have been quick out of the gate, but he was just 2.5 lengths back after a half mile.
Hi Steve . Is there a way to get a email notification if somebody replies to a comment ?
That would be geat but I have never seen that on blog comments. . Sounds like quite an undertaking
OK. Thank you Steve
1. Fierceness, 136
2. Catching Freedom, 125
3. Forever Young, 100
4. Endlessly, 100
5. Track Phantom, 70
6. West Saratoga, 67
7. Just Steel, 65
8. Honor Marie, 65
9. Dornoch, 60
10. Domestic Product, 60
11. Sierra Leone, 55
12. Catalytic, 50
13. Deterministic, 5014. Mystik Dan, 46
15. No More Time, 45
16. Grand Mo the First, 40
17. Common Defense, 37
18. Hades, 30
19. El Grande O, 30
20. T O Password (Japan)
On the bubble
21. Seize the Grey, 27
22. Stronghold, 25
23. Le Dom Bro, 25
24. Pandagate, 25
25. Just a Touch, 25
correction
14. Mystic Dan, 46
Thanks Mark.
T O Password got 40 points which puts him just above Grand Mo the First. I am not sure Hades will be running the Derby. El Grande O got the chance to get at least 15 points in the Wood to be in safer position.
I put T O Password at # 20 because his points do not matter here
A lot will change Saturday as you listed below. Good job Nelson
With Timberlake out of the Derby the top 20 top horses in the standing (including the Japanese Forever Young and T O Password) shows El Grande O, Hades with 30 points in 19th and 20th spots respectively. Also eligible with 25 points are Stronghold and Just a Touch.
As a full field expected for the Wood Memorial and only Deterministic there with solid 50 points I would guess that the cut off to enter the Derby is 40 points.
If Dornoch and Sierra Leone complete the Exacta in the Blue Grass there will automatically be five horses out of contention. That scenario would leave Just a Touch, Epic Ride and Encino vying for a 3rd place.
The following are the minimum placings required for the Blue Grass field.
1- Top Conor, needs 1st or 2nd
2- Be You, needs 1st or 2nd
3- Seize the Grey, needs 1st or 2nd
4- Dornoch, Qualified
5- Good Money, needs 1st or 2nd
6- Just a Touch, needs 3rd or 4th
7- Lat Long, needs 1st or 2nd
8- Epic Ride, needs 1st, 2nd or 3rd
10- Sierra Leone, Qualified
11- Encino, needs 1st, 2nd or 3rd
In the West, Stronghold needs only to finish in 3rd or 4th in the Santa Anita Derby to enter the Derby and Mc Vay must finish 2nd or 3rd to qualify against early favorites Maymun and Imagination.
The Lexington Stakes don’t seem to have any effect on the standings as the horses to be left at its tail end would not have more than 20 points. On the other hand, I see a couple of new shooters emerging from the Wood Memorial …
Nelson not sure if you saw this on the first post under the new format, but in vase you did not here it is again:
I finally figured out the filly that impressed me. Mistaken she was by Frosted.
Her name is Star of Mystery and she ran 2nd to California Spangle.
By Kodiac out of Mistrusting, owner/breeder Godolphin. Trained by Charlie Appleby.
Yes Lynda. Star of Mystery was the 4/5 favorite in the Al Quoz Sprint and ran suberbly agains a true Group 1 sprinter California Spangle. The gelding had amazed more than 8.5 million dollars before Saturday for 12 wins in 24 starts in Hong Kong.
BTW the Frosted filly I referred to in our exchange last week named Frost at Dawn had defeated Star Mystery in a prior Group 3 5 furlong race.
Forever Young has beaten a sprinter, Book’em Danno, when going 1 mile and then beat an Argentinian bred, Auto Bahn, who was just 7 months older than Forever Young but was burdened with 10 pounds more, 131 lbs. to Forever Youngs 121 lbs. I wonder if there would have been anywhere near 2 lengths difference at the finish of the UAE Derby if Auto Bahn had been carrying say 126 lbs. I think it could have gone either way. Now Forever Young will be picking up weight in the Kentucky Derby and there won’t be any weight handicapping going on to help him out, and he has to deal with the travel situation that the Meydan race puts him in, which for me will probably put him in the also ran category in the Kentucky Derby.
Everything you said could very well be right and makes sense. Its all about how good you think our 3yo’s are and if there is anyone he should afraid of other than Fierceness
Yeah, but these are young horses and this is the Derby. He’s got just a good of chance as most of these other horses.
Off topic but here goes:
A study out of Cornell University on Thoroughbreds that was published in February shows that stallions and mares that are closely related as the result of inbreeding results in a higher percentage of ROHs (runs of homosycosity) in the foal fetus. The higher the ROHs the greater the risk for the foal fetus to be aborted or stillborn after the first two months of gestation. Research in France concluded that this might be a natural purge mechanism for the protection of the herd because there is an excessive overload of harmful genetic mutations.
Cool.
Speaking of workouts, my Form shows Just a Touch with 59.4 and 59.1 for his last two. Both at Keenland. I think he’s going to run BIG on Saturday. Good enough to beat Dornoch and Sierra Leone? We’ll see. He needs points. Florent Geroux keeps the mount and will be hungry after fading with Saudi Crown in Dubai last Saturday.
Betting Just a Touch in the Derby will go against every fiber of my being. He didn’t make his first start until January 27th and is a May foal. As Steve Haskin has pointed out. Maybe it’s time for me to realize that the times are a changing and that I need to change with them. Justify will be trying to pull a Justify/Mage. Hey! Look who his sire is. It could be in his blood.
Just a little off topic since BB horses are banned from the Derby. But there is a pick-3 being offered this weekend on the three Derby prep races: Wood, Bluegrass, and the Santa Anita Derby. Looking at the possible entries, Maymun looked like a standout to me at Santa Anita as a possible single in this cross-country wager. Then I noticed that Maymun’s number dropped noticeably when stretched out to a mile. Which concerns me as he’ll be stretching out again to a mile and an eighth. However, I notice that his last 4 workouts were at 5-furlongs and 3 at 6-furlongs. It reminds me of the workouts that BB put into Authentic going into his off-season Derby win. The question: Is Maymun the real deal or a hype horse? Very lightly raced and too early to tell. Best to wait for the Wood and Santa Anita Derby to be drawn tomorrow before getting too excited.
You may want to watch the gallop out of Maymun’s last race. He was just getting started. Looked like a real racehorse.
Yes, Todd, the Santa Anita Derby is the race to watch this weekend. The Kentucky Derby is really just a prep for the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes this year. Ha ha
While Fierceness will be a standout on numbers going into the Derby, pending what happens this Saturday, he’s what I call a yo-yo. I replied to Counter Point last week that I expected him to win the Florida Derby before disappointing as the favorite in Kentucky. I’ll stand by that. 103, 69, 106, 94, & 112(????) HRN speed figures. I want to see him run two in the same ballpark in a row. I’m no genius, but I can spot a trend. If his next one is around 98 or 100, will that be good enough? I don’t think so.
If I’m wrong, it won’t be the first time that I lost money on the Derby. More like the 35th time. I can take a beating but keep on ticking.
Steve Haskin is absolutely correct in ranking Fierceness number one. When he’s good, he’s very very good. Then there’s the next race.
What is the trend that you speak of? The Champagne was a complete disaster from the word go. The Holy Bull was not his target race after being off for 3 months. He’s the deserving favorite for the KD. As we’ve all seen over the years, luck plays a big part in a 20 horse field. A clean break and the rest will be running for a consolation prize.
Tapalo will run in SAD. Paid late payment of $6 ,000 yesterday.
Thoughts and prayers for the community of Paris in Bourbon County, Kentucky.
Rose Hill Farm took a hard hit with barns, stables and fences destroyed. Several horses injured and two were in surgery.
Rose Hill is a riding academy for eventing horses.
This region is still under a tornado watch.
Lynda, so sorry to hear this. That weather system looked BAAAAD on the news last night.
These April tornadic storm systems are the worst.
Large sections in the Southeast, into Ohio and West Virginia are under the gun until tomorrow morning.
There is a risk for us from midnight to 7 AM, worst from 3 AM to 5 AM.
It just comes with living in a mini tornado alley.
I’ll take our messy snow Wed and Thurs. Although we’ll get high winds, too.
Ms B, I know what you are saying!
UPDATE: Timberlake will not run in the #KyDerby per report from
@DRFRampellini
.
Kentucky Derby points leaderboard UPDATED with news Timberlake and Tuscan Gold are no longer on the trail
Moee sorry about Tuscan Gold
Why is Tuscan Gold out? Just because he has only 25 points?
DRF reported Brown pointing Tuscan Gold to Preakness
But you never know. Things change in this game so often.
Thanks for the update Mark…
Another Champagne winner bound to be (just) a brilliant miler for the fourth year in a row…
Report is that Timberlake is cutting back on distance.
Steve, what is a good e-mail address for Secretariat group now.
Thank you
Still info@Secretariat,com or LLusky@Secretariat.com
Thank you.
According to my TV guide it looks like the Blue Grass will only be shown on tape on the CNBC Santa Anita Derby telecast starting at 7 pm EDT. They have their prorities all wrong. But NBC hasnt shown a prep yet so racing no longer a priority.
Steve
For those with DirecTV, I would think they’ll show the Blue Grass live on Ch. 602.
Does your TV guide list the DirecTV channels?
Thanks.
I dont even know anyone who has Direct TV
I’m sure they’ll have it on FanDuel a/or FS2. I recently discovered I’m paying an extra $100 a month for the privilege of those two channels. Arrghh.
I feel your pain Ms. Blacktype
Back in 1969, I bought a brand-new home for $19,995, with monthly payments of $150.00. My last DirecTV bill was $241.00 (that’s for operating 4 TV sets).
Just one example of how much the cost of living has increased over the past 55 years.
I watch all the races on the twinspires website and FS2.
I used to pay extra for FanDuel as well but there’s a free app if you have a smart device. At $100/month it would pay for itself in just a few months.
America’s Best Racing website has a list of channels that will televise this weekend’s prep races.
They’re frightened of a potential breakdown possibly. I’ve noticed TV coverage hasn’t been what it used to with these races.
Hi Steve, when you get a chance can you kindly go back to the Interim Post Site and give me your thoughts on my question Re: 2018 Derby? Thank you
Sorry I dont know to get back there. I imagine Leonard does.
Oh I see it. I’ll check it out
No problem Steve I will repeat it here! In view of Justifiy dq from SA Derby do you think the owners of Good Magic have a case in saying he was not eligible for Ky. Derby without the 100 points and therefore should lose both his derby and Triple Crown standing?? CD previously said there would be no change but cant that be different now that he is officially dq’d from SA Derby?
Oh I saw it and answered you below
The decision is getting appealed. Be a long time before a final decision Justify’s owners presumably retain the right to appeal it.
Who knows wth Churchill Downs. I hear they are now contemplating DQing him from the Derby. Sounds like another year ban for Baffert in 2025. Even if his positive had been released as it should have been by the CHRB instead of keeping it to themselves there would have been an appeal and the DQ wouldnt have gone into effect until after the split sample came back. And Baffert was still popular with CD then and hadnt disgaced them with his Derby and Oaks positives. But boy they must be really ticked of now with this adding fuel to the Baffert inferno.
As for the runnerup suiing, why the heck not, especially after the Bolt d’Oro decision. Nothing to lose.
Steve, I hope this is a rumor.
In my opinion CDI has nothing to gain by extending Baffert’s suspension into 2025 or trying to void Justify’s Derby win.
Sounds like CDI wants to drive more nails into the coffin for horse racing in the US.
This continuing saga of extended suspensions of Bob Baffert from participating in the Kentucky Derby has no merit, is uncalled for and blatantly unfair, I find it troubling.
Everything about CDI is troublng
Always look forward to your commentary. And I watched every one of Pandagate’s races. He’s very intriguing.. this next weekend of racing will be very exciting . Good luck and safe racing for all.
RE: Blue Grass Stakes
The post positions and odds have been drawn for referenced race.
1) Top Conor, 15-1
2) Be You, 8-1
3) Seize the Grey, 20-1
4) Dornoch, 3-1
5) Good Money, 20-1
6) Just a Touch, 7/2
7) Lat Long, 30-1
8) Epic Ride, 20-1
9) Mugatu, 30-1
10) Sierra Leone, 2-1
11) Encino, 12-1
Flip and coin between Dornoch and Sierra Leone.
Terrible post for SL
Agreed, and Dornoch is sitting really pretty there
He could have a rabbit in post 1. That may be why he was re-directed here instead of the Wood.
Well doesn’t Gargan have SOCIETY MAN for the Wood and needs to get qualified.
Hi Steve
Yes, I agree that Sierra Leone didn’t draw well, however, he appears to be the best deep closer in this year’s crop. From my perspective, Dornoch and Sierra Leone are the class of the Blue Grass field, it just a question which horse wants to win it more.
Despite Sierra Leone breaking from P/P #10, I believe he is quite capable of making a deep close on the pacesetters during the late stretch run.
I’m certainly looking forward to this race and the Wood as well, the SA Derby, not so much.
Safe trips to all.
He will need pace on that track, which can be pretty speed biased at times.
I am not so sure the game plan is for Dornach to win the Blue Grass, it is to teach him to rate behind horses and keep his mind on running and not fooling around and if he wins that is a bonus .
Like the old days! From 1980 to 2010, 19 of the 31 derby winners lost their last prep.
Agreed! Will at least finish in money.
Who the heck is Mugatu? I guess 3YOs breaking their maidens right and left want a shot at Derby glory.
This 11th edition had to be a challenge – needing to compare the contenders running on Saturday to those that have already gotten in their final preps. I’ll add my congratulations to Steve for rising to the occasion.
Re: Fierceness
Often when we handicap the Derby Trail races and the Derby itself, we give too much weight to derby angles, historical patterns, etc. I am as guilty of that as anyone. What we tend to overlook are the traditional handicapping considerations that we have always used for other races. In the case of Fierceness, I missed the obvious: i.e., the fact that after an extraordinary BCJ effort, he was off for three months before his 3yo debut. That he vied for the lead and tired in the stretch of the Holy Bull Stakes should not have been surprising. The key element in the Florida Derby was that the champion was in his second race after a 3-month layoff. That was the race where we should have expected Fierceness’s class and abilities to surface. For those who saw this BEFORE the race, I say “Good job!”
Now we have in play another aspect of performance that’s often overlooked: the bounce factor. I believe that Fierceness improved his BSF 26 points from the Holy Bull to the Florida Derby. His Brisnet figure improved 17 points, while his Equibase number was 20 points higher. That much of an improvement often signals a decline in the next race, regardless of the racing level. Always Dreaming overcame a massive hike to win the derby; but who else did? I can’t find another.
The last point I wish to make about Fierceness is his ability to break cleanly and quickly from the gate. His start in the Florida Derby was a thing of beauty. He was alert and ready to go as he stood in his stall. He shot out fast and straight. In doing so, he avoided being bumped on his left or his right. As Steve wrote, a similar break in the Derby is bad news for the other 19. So rather than figure his chances to finish first at CD, maybe we should be thinking about his chances of having another excellent beginning: 80%? 50%. That, for me, may be the biggest question on the first Saturday in May.
I may be wrong, but the field that Fierceness ran against in the FD were not qualified G1 animals. The FD set up perfectly for his racing style. A talented horse who has the class and pace advantage will run his best figures in a race typically. Obviously, Fierceness still may win the KD ala War Emblem, but the KD will be much more difficult strategically. Now who will beat him may be limited to a couple horses, but the Preakness race he will have a few baffert horses that will be breathing fire to take up the pace.
Exactly, the Kentucky Derby isn’t a stroll in the park.
True that the Fla Derby didn’t have much in the way of proven talent. But most derby preps are thin on proven talent. There are a lot of preps and not that many derby quality horses. Sometimes, the derby is won by a horse that didn’t face much in his final preps. Sometimes, horses coming from the better preps (relatively speaking) don’t do very well. The Derby is more difficult for ALL of the runners.
Good points Winston.
On top of the 3-month layoff I believe the wind was knocked out of Fierceness when he was squeezed hard on both sides at the break of the Holy Bull. So, if you can’t breathe for a few seconds while trying to find your stride early you won’t have enough oxygen by the end of the race.
So, instead of reading the Florida Derby as a huge rebound I would deem it as Fierceness coming back to his normal competitive level (i.e. similar to his BC form which is BTW enough to win this Derby).
The strategy his Derby rivals will try to employ is to keep Fierceness “in close quarters” from the get go… but it would take very fast horses to his sides in the starting gate to attempt another “mortal sandwiching” to halt his chances. Besides, I think Fierceness is able to track any fast horse like he did behind (Champagne runner-up) General Partner in the BC.
Having said all that, perhaps Fierceness flop in the Champagne could be explained by the fact that he also was pinballed by Gold Sweep and El Grande O after the start.
Regarding your astute question, it is up to Fierceness to answer it … as Steve hinted, Fierceness’ mind is his worst enemy…
Nelson, I agree about the strategy anticipated from Fierceness’s neighbors in the Derby gate. Yes, if he breaks like he did in the Fla Derby, the strategy won’t matter. But if he breaks a bit slow or awkwardly, it won’t be good. Who knows what might happen. I certainly wouldn’t take a chance with my money on 5-2 or less.
It is funny how we can in this instance just eliminate the chances of a horse just before the first furlong is ran…
Winston, I tend to think those who believe Fierceness is going to waltz away with the Kentucky Derby are looking through ‘rose colored glasses.’ lol. Not only does Fierceness have to have a perfect start but doesn’t the colt also have distain for a sloppy track as he experienced in the Champagne Stakes?
Fierceness may well win the Kentucky Derby but as you wrote that appears to depend on external factors going his way which in the Kentucky Derby is rare indeed. Good luck to those who adore Fierceness but there is an Achilles hoof or two that may get in the way of that happening.
Right. If he was, say, 8-1 , I might take a chance based on his record. But he’ll be a strong favorite. My money will go elsewhere. As for the possibility of a sloppy track….NO!!!!!!
Yes, please no rain, racing gods. Todd Pletcher is another concern that should be considered, his record is not that of Bob Bafferts. Mind you, I’m finding great difficulty in getting too enthusiastic about any runner at this stage. I’ve been following Chasing Freedom and Honor Marie but their running style is against them in the Derby.
Fierceness has a much better chance of winning if he draws an inside post; an outside post may be a problem for him; no bumping. The bounce factor is something to think about; he bounced badly after his maiden win. Obviously, I’ll use him in the derby.
I am glad to see Granpollo Stable’s Grand Mo The First (UNCLE MO – LILIES SO FAIR, BY GIANT’S CAUSEWAY ) securing a starting stall in the Kentucky Derby.
Grandpollo Stable’s owner David Geofroy is a Venezuelan pilot and businessman of French ascendants who decided to move for good to Miami in 2006. His first win came in 2015 and since then his stable has been growing from 2 horses in campaign to 14 last year.
I believe that David Geofroy is the winningest Venezuelan owner with 104 wins so far. His horses have won at a 20% rate and were in the money (1st, 2nd and 3rd) 47% of the time with a collected bankroll of $2,4 million.
The Geofroy family is the owner of a successful restaurant chain named Granpollo whose specialty is roasted chicken Venezuelan style and other Venezuelan typical dishes… I always eat there whenever I am in Miami…David got all the winning pictures of his horses adorning the walls of his restaurants. It is an additional delight to true fans eating there…
David you can send me a modest check for the publicity …LOL
When asked why he religiously attends racing at Gulfstream Park every weekend Geofroy replies: “Being at the race track to see your horses run is like having your own sons and daughters competing. You have to be there to share the excitement (with family and friends) so they can feel you are actually there cheering for them”.
All that passion is being rewarded with Grand Mo The First becoming his first Derby runner. I wish the Venezuelan connection of Granpollo, Victor Barboza Jr. and Emisael Jaramillo the best of luck in their Derby venture.
Very interesting. Thanks! I liked Grand Mo in the TB Derby. Might have eked out a very small profit if there had been betting. Argh!
Great back story on the owner of Grand Mo the First, Nelson. As you know, Venezuela has a long tradition of producing great horses and great horse people. Will be interesting to see how Grand Mo performs, assuming he makes the field. Can’t believe we’re looking at a 45 point — or more! — cutoff this year, but there will likely be some attrition as we get closer to the race.
Thanks Ms Blacktype… I was about to recall the history of Venezuelan trainers in the Derby but I realize that it is a topic more for a Latin American audience…
Regarding the cut off I will be posting the oultook of the Derby hopefuls competing in the final Derby preps considering a cut off of 40 points… just waiting for the final entries…
Nelson, I am equally enthusiastic that Grand Mo The Most is going to the Derby.
Thank you for backstory on the owner, Mr Geofoy.
A little note about Grand Mo The First. He was a bred by John Gunther who owns Crestwood Farm, same farm that bred Justify, Vino Rosso, Mo Town, Tamarkuz and Stay Thirsty.
That is a great point Lynda … thanks for the reminder.
I have the utmost respect for Gunther and his daughter’s breeding schemes… and Uncle Mo out of a Giant’s Causeway is a palatable combination in my view…Grand Mo the First might not win the Derby but there are some other Stakes he can win down the road…
Nelson, he is certainly on my watch list for the rest of the 2024 racing season!
It amazes me (but not surprising), that he who is called Counter Point, after continuously slamming Pletcher, and especially Fierceness, has nothing to say about the Florida Derby winner.
Come out Come Out – Wherever You Are
Tuscan Gold – i hope this guy gets in. I think he is going to love the 1 1/4 distance with high odds. A long shot.
Liking this new look!!
Excited for this derby. I think we have a very competitive group of contenders. I do agree that if the FL derby version of Fierceness shows up it’s game over. It’s a different track and different atmosphere so we shall see!
Honor Marie – he will need to improve if he is going to win the derby. I think he has room for improvement. Still rooting for this guy. If he goes in running his best race he has a chance. One thing is though he will be competitive at 1 1/4 mile and of course it’s his home track!
One last STEVE as i know they can’t be added to the dozen, but i do think there could have been a mention of Muth last weekend in the ARK DERBY. He was brilliant and announced that he is the real deal, derby or not.
Gargan has said he will not go to the front as he wants him to rate before the KY Derby. His exercise gal has suggested that he is getting more and more mature and making huge jumps forward about getting to be more professional.
Will the real Slim Shadey be stand up. That is how i feel about FIERCENESS. Win -flop-win-flop – win He is brilliant but unless he gets to the lead and takes it wire to wire, i think he flops again in the DERBY as i don’t think he has any fight in him. Alone yes, confronted no.
Just the opposite for Dornach. I think he focuses when he is in battle and plays around when he is on the lead which makes him more dangerous.
Others i am anxiously waiting on are. Tuscan Sky- Society man , Deterministic and Sierra Leone
I always love your analysis, Steve. You see and explain much more than most. What about Fierceness’s race cycle pattern of win, lose, win, lose, win. Does that give you any reason for concern? Also, according to Dornoch’s trainer, the Bluegrasd will be a teaching moment for him. He is more concerned that Dornoch learns to rate than winning. What do you think?
Fascinating stuff on the thorograph numbers historically. Thanks for sharing those!
Santa Anita has announced that purses during the past meet have been overpaid by $4,000,000 and they will be cutting the Spring meet purses by 12%.
Cali racing is in serious trouble. Their MSW purse w/be down to $54.000 and the Hollywood Gold Cup, Gr II, is now down to $200,000. I can’t help but wonder if the big outfits (Baffert et al) will remain on the Cali circuit? Sad state of affairs.
Hi Steve,
Great analysis and fun read as usual! Really enjoy how you include the various forms of figs in your weekly breakdown and it’s there that I would like to dig down a bit.
I looked at the last 5 Louisiana Deby cards and found that each featured 5 dirt route races (Crescent City Derby, Crescent City Oaks, New Orleans Classic, Fair Grounds Oaks and the Louisiana Deby). Even though it isn’t a big sample size, I thought it might still be useful to find the 5-yr average time for each race and try to find a track variant for each year.
My main purpose was to compare Epicenter with Catching Freedom. If you use Equibase you’ll see that they gave Catching Freedom a 98, and if you look up Epicenter you’ll find a 102. What’s interesting though is that on Derby Day 2022 Epicenter had an Equibase fig of 97 for his La. Derby effort. The Equibase fig can change over time as more data comes in.
Anyway, even though Catching Freedom ran a time 1.78 seconds slower than Epicenter. The Equibase algorithm gave Catching Freedom the slightly higher fig in the early weeks post race. Keep in mind also that Equibase makes no adjustment for ground loss. Thoro-Graph shows Epicenter with a sweet ground saving 1w1w trip.(same as Kingsbarns and Hot Rod Charlie). I don’t know what trip Catching Freedom got, but I know it wasn’t 1w1w..
My own crude 5-yr avg. calculations show a track variant for 2022 of 9 tenths of a second fast, with 2024 about 3 tenths slow. Not counting ground loss, I would have Catching Freedom .58 slower than Epicenter after adjusting for track variant or about 3 lengths. Beyer has Catching Freedom about 3 lengths slower than Epicenter too (97-102)
Interestingly, both Beyer and Equibase would have Catching Freedom faster than Epicenter if they adjusted for ground loss, but Thoro-Graph (who does adjust for ground loss) has Catching Freedom about 4 lengths slower than Epicenter. My experience tells me TG is probably right, but logically I can’t make sense of this pretty huge disparity.
One last thing concerning the Louisiana route. I’ve been keeping tabs on both Resilience and Common Defense as potential Derby Day price plays (underneath mostly with the latter). Obviously, neither may even get into the race. That said, I think it’s interesting that Resilience still seems to be on the watch list of most Derby Cappers, while Common Defense is never mentioned (and I watch and read a lot).
In my opinion Resilience and Common Defense ran pretty much the same race in their last. Both hounded Track Phantom from the outside. Both would have preferred to be a bit further back with another rival applying the pressure to Track Phantom. Both yielded in late stretch without getting past the game pace setter.
I get that people can see Resilience moving forward off of that effort (as do I), but why can’t Common Defense do the same? One of the really interesting things about Common Defense is that once you get past those initial 3 furlong works that are typically used in the early part of training, Common Defense has only had 10 works. Resilience. om the other hand has had 25 works since his last 3F work.
It would seem that Common Defense could really benefit from these next 3 or 4 works assuming he came out of the La Derby in good order. It seemed like he galloped out really well once again.
Anyway, this ended up too long, but look forward to any thoughts from anyone who made it all the way through 🙂
I trust your math wizardry Jim, but math was never my strong suit so I agree with everyting you said. Lol As for Reilience and Common Defense, the latter’s last race was his final Derby prep and he didnt move forward., running a bit dull Resilience still has to run his final prep and has a chance to make a forward move. That is why I am higher on him. I know what Common Defense has done. I dont know what Resilience will do.
Great point Steve, and a pretty obvious one too. There might be an interesting comparison between the two if they both still had their final prep still in front of them.
Jim, you seem to have answered your own ‘problem,’ “I can’t make sense of this pretty huge disparity.” I work at a University using ‘Big Data’ to analyze government programs while interpreting data provided which has its own pitfalls. Subsequently, everything is somewhat dependent on data quality which can be problematic.
Just with the most rudimentary of data provided you know that Catching Freedom did not have an ideal start and the game plan was compromised to some extent. Did Epicenter have the golden trip? It appeared so. Have confidence in your own analysis. Ha ha
I really enjoy reading your posts.
Thanks David! I do most of my message board discussion talking about Indiana University basketball. I really enjoy analytics/stats talk. My brother says that I have a “gift” of convoluting things when I over explain even the most simple ideas. I just want to explain how I come to conclusions when they are contrarian.
As you say, I probably did answer my own question. The problem is that the answer is that I think thoro-graph is under rating the Fair Grounds races. I have a much better record when I think the Beyer Speed Fig is off than I do going against Thoro-Graph. That said I’ll maybe get inflated odds on Catching Freedom, Honor Marie and Common Defense and maybe even Resilience since TG has them slow.
That’s interesting, with reference to Breyer Speed Figs and Thro-Graph, because I have similar views/experience. With Catching Freedom and Honor Marie, both of whom I’ve been following from the sales, you have the bonus that they’ve both won at Churchill Downs which advances them from the Fair Grounds.
Depending on post position both colts would be obvious dangers. Catching Freedom’s odds will be too low for sure but that’s the Kentucky Derby. lol.
Fierceness deserves the #1 ranking. As you mentioned, a clean break and the rest will be running for a consolation spot.
Regarding Dornoch, two days ago he ripped a 47 2/5 breeze which is not his norm. Sierra Leone needs to bring his A+ game to run past him in the Blue Grass Stakes.
I agree the race seems set up Dornoch and he has a big chance to get his act together. His problem has ever been talent, its been trying to look like a Derby horse mentally. The work was good, but Keeneland has been playing very fast in the morning. Everyone has bee working fast
It is funny that I was about to post how the Thoro Graph numbers help identifying future stars rather early. I wanted to point out that 1, zeroes and negative TG figures are requisites of sort to predict the rising of a star.
If you were to track down the TGs of last two Triple Crown champions you would see the following trends:
2015 AMERICAN PHAROAH last two starts as 2 year old: (1 1/2, 1 1/2 ),
And for his 3 year old two preps and the Derby TG (1 1/2, -1, -3)
2018 JUSTIFY ran 3 times before the Derby (0 ¾, 2, -1, -1 1/2)
Regarding the trend of big longshots the following are the last pre Derby and final Derby TG numbers for Giacomo, Mine that Bird and Rich Strike.
2005 GIACOMO (5 1/4, 4 1/2, 5, 0 1/2). In 2005 Bellay Road had the best TG’s for his preps but regressed to 4 1/4 in the Derby (-0 1/4, -5, 4 1/4 ). The most consistent of that class was Afleet Alex who got 2 ½ for all his five last 2-year-old starts; The son of Northern Afleet got a negative 2 for his 8-legth win in the Arkansas Derby prior to getting a 2 ½ in the Kentucky Derby (2nd).
2009 MINE THAT BIRD (8 1/2, 5 1/2, -0 3/4). In the 2009 Derby trail Dunkirk had the best TG’s for the last two preps but regressed to 6 ¾ in the Derby: : (10 1/4, -0 1/2, -0 1/2, 6 3/4)
2022 Rich Strike (9, 10 1/2, 9 3/4, 1 1/2). As Steve already stated, it was a big jump from 9.75 to 1.5 in the Derby; but as he himself explained in his article “Vet Alan Dorton and Lindsy Reed Add to Rich Strike Fairy Tale”, Rich Strike was suffering from an aggressive ulcer that left him anemic for his races before the Ruby Steak. Fortunately he was completely healed by the time he serendipitously got in the Derby.
Of course, you can always use other speed ratings to measure quality or try to correlate the TG figures to them but the reality is that those correlations strongly depend on the individual horse being evaluated.
For example, other commercial speed ratings indicated that Dortmund was faster than American Pharoah (2 to 4 points better) in all Derby preps of 2015 but Thoro Graph soundly showed that the Triple Crown champion was actually faster in all his races (except his odd debut of course).
Anyway, my point is that apparently no horse aside from Fierceness was able to run negative TGs which were the key indicators of top contenders in the past.
Fierceness might not be the biggest or the most beautiful among his peers but he surely is the fastest of all… and you don’t need any metrics to know that…
Glad you mentioned Mine That Bird’s 5 1/2 in the Sunland Derby.
For what it’s worth, yesterday Craig Milkowski lowered Fierceness’s Timeform figure to 112. It was originally assigned 126 which was far more in alignment with Beyer. “Definitely some issues there,” Milkowski said. Haven’t heard yet the reason for the revision. Perhaps some question with Gulfstream’s clocking. It sure wouldn’t be the first time they’ve had issues with that.
Never mind. Found out Milkowski was just taking part in a little mischief on Twitter April 1st.
Thanks for your thorough and brilliant analysis of all of the probable Derby entrants.
And also, thanks to the history of the wonderful horses in Fierceness’s pedigree; it seems like they mostly ran fast, sometimes didn’t run much at all, or were scratched (Quality Road).
I don’t recall Mike Repole having bred other horses. He bred Nonna Belle, Fierceness’s dam from Stay Thirsty. And he bred Fierceness.
Has anyone interviewed Mike Repole about his breeding operation?
Congratulations to Fierceness, Johnny V, Todd Pletcher, and all of his connections.
Thanks again for your expertise.
He was the breeder of Outwork, the Wood Memorial winner that ran in the 2016 Ky Derby.
Thanks for the information Winston.
My pleasure, Terri.
Just a note:
For those who follow the Kentucky Derby trail of races on KentuckyderbyDOTcom.
Its listed as the “Cardinal Condition Stakes” at Clemsford City was to be run on Apr 30.
I tried to find the result of that race but could not then I looked up the races for this coming Saturday Apr 6th and it was listed there. Its a 30-15-9-6-3 points race.
Well he showed up.
Currently there is no one who will run in the derby that is close to him.
I hope Dornoch performs better this time, I was a bit disappointed of his last race.
Should have added “All Fierceness needs to do is break clean out of the gate”.
If he draws rail he’s finished,like all for past thirty- seven years.
If he breaks like he did in the Florida Derby, the rail is where I want to be. If he doesnt he’s probably screwed no matter where he draws.
I’ve thought a lot about the rail draw in the Derby and why it’s so bad. In my opinion, a speed horse is at a disadvantage because he can feel all those horses moving towards him and tends to run too fast to get away from them. A stalker gets trapped down inside. I think that when a horse finally breaks through from the rail again, it will be a closer. My analysis might sound crazy, but that’s the way that I see it.
Lookin at Lee is the best closer I remember (recently) to come out of the #1 post. A nice exacta $330 to Always Dreaming.
It’s a whole new ballgame since the single starting gate was introduced in 2020. Too soon to make any valid judgments. But as Mike Smith said about the earlier configuration, “the 1 horse had to kind of come around the (inside) fence to make it straight.”
Your comments show great knowledge of the game. You never go low.
Thanks very much Mike
Hi Steve,
Great job as always. If Fierceness runs his race in the Derby it looks like a short priced favorite this year. But strange things happen on the first Saturday in May. For some reason I’m still drawn to Dornoch as he seems to be the Rodney Dangerfield of this years crop.
Best,
Hammer
Thanks Hammer. I’m not sure he’s been that disrespected. I’ve seen a lot of Derby rankings that has him very high up. I’m just looking for a professional race from him. And I’m trying to figure out how he wins the Derby if Fierceness runs his “A” race.
Don’t discount any horse coming out of but LA Derby. At a mile and 3/16, this prep race produces dead-fit runners.
Wow ! I felt that you have become more like a philosopher this week … perhaps is the new format but I was really amazed by some of your statements:
“if you want to beat a fast horse make him go slow. Fast horses do not like to or want to run slow” it is a definitive declaration not only applicable to Fierceness but to any other horse whose best trait is pure rich speed.
Another quotable is “go with what you don’t now more than what you do know” to reflect of Deterministic’s promise.
Another citation I will absorb is your assessment of Pandagate’s talent: “That competitive spirit is what the Thoroughbred is all about. It is not only about winning, it is about beating whatever horse is around you and he was determined to beat those two horses in front of him that he could see.”
That quality could also be adjudicated to Sierra Leone…
I also appreciate the technical information about the Thoro Graph historic trends toward the Derby.
Looking forward to the last 4 weeks of your Derby rankings and your closing appraisals of this crop….
Thank you Nelson. I guess I did get a bit philosophical. Lol.
Steve, thank you so much for the additional information about the Thoro-Graph figures. That is very helpful.
Though not much else this year is like the old days, it is nice to see five of the top-rated 2-year-olds in 2023–Fierceness, Muth, Dornoch, Sierra Leone, and Timberlake–come back to win Derby preps.
Thank you Steve for mentioning Pandagate.
Somewhat bittersweet watching him race on that track. I remember watching his sire Arrogate winning the DWC after that awful start. The loss of Arrogate was devastating not only for Juddmonte but for Thoroughbred breeding in the United States. Over time I think Artogate would have proved himself to be an outstanding sire.
I truly believe Pandagate is one to watch in 2024. I know I will be watching how he progresses.
Arcangelo is Arrogate’s greatest son. He is standing at Lane’s End; I can’t wait to see his foals on the track I know you are aware that Arcangelo won the Champion three-year-old Eclipse award.
I love this column. It was a long wait, but the “big” weekend shed some light on a muddled mess of wet tracks. Your insight as to the players has me hopeful for an exciting Derby day!
Thanks Jo Anne
Wonderful post, Steve. At this point on the Derby trail, your analysis along with data from Thoro-Graph to the sheets to track variants really gives us all a lot of information. What to make of it all is anyone’s guess. Love that you moved Forever Young to #3, and that you included Just Steel in your top 15. His grit, his legendary trainer, and his breathtaking pedigree (Justify out of Irish Oaks winner Irish Lights) makes him first-class sleeper if there ever was one.
Thanks Ms B, things are startng to clear up a little even with the Arkansas Dry winnerr
Steve::
History shows that a horse that runs a negative TG # at 2 does not repeat that performance at 3.
Any concern with this?
Just Steele paired his top, with a 5 week break he may be sitting on a move forward.
Good stuff
Regards
John
here is always a concern when they run fast early. More concern is what his T-Graph will be for the Fla. Derby.
Just when I thought I’ve seen you at your best, you throw another strike catching the corner. You are at the top of your game, Steve. Week 11 is the most concise, informative and educational column that you’ve done this year. It’s a privilege to read your work and learn so much through your insights. Your columns are deeply appreciated and treasured.
I knew that you would move Forever Young up after his professional win in the UAE Derby but, I didn’t expect to see him at No. 3. I’m high on this horse and the only concern that I have is whether or not all this traveling will catch up to him. Mr. Yahagi said post race that these trips can be hard on a 3 yo, but Forever Young has weathered it well so far. I am anxious for him to arrive at Churchill so that we can observe Forever Young up close to determine his condition and his acclimation to the track. The morning works show two weeks out from the Derby should tell us a lot.
The countdown continues.
Edit: “The daily morning works shows”
Thank you so much, Dewey, I really appreciate that. With Forever Young there isn’t any horse below No. 3 that I love. That could change Saturday
Steve
Haven’t posted for a while but never tire reading your weekly commentary. Thank you for the information regarding the “sheets”. I’m too frugal to invest in these products because I’m mainly a $2 dollar bettor. To read your take in applying them to the Derby field is an extra bonus of reading your columns. Keep up the good work and know you’re much appreciated. One dream has been bouncing around my head ever since I read it….If only we could have seen Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra in a race.
Todd
Thats very kind of you Todd, thank you. I’m so glad you enjoyed the stuff on Thorro-Graph, It a fun way of handicapping using speed and patterns,
I always look forward to reading your columns, Steve. I appreciate your expertise and insight.
Thank you Suzie.
Steve;
Any thoughts on Endlessly, now that it appears he might be in the Derby? Thanks a lot for the Thoro-Graph information; more good data to use to decipher the Derby!
I was debatng what to do with him. I figured I would let a week go by and see if they still consider changing their mind after seeing Fierceness.
Hi Steve
I consider Derby Rankings – Week 11, your best analysis on the top contenders on the Derby trail. You’ve brought clarity to the progression of sixteen horses relating to their respective Thoro-Graph numbers, running style and their connections.
I apologize for putting out misleading information on Resilience, but I swear I read that he was injured and off the Derby trail. Please don’t ask me where I read it because I don’t remember. I’m delighted to hear he came back in good order and will be one of the entrants in the Wood Memorial.
I’ll have four of my Derby Futures Pool 3 horses running in the Wood; Deterministic (107-1), Resilience (93-1), Tuscan Sky (88-1) and Merit (129-1).
Best of luck moving forward with the SECRETARIAT.com newly designed format.
Bill, I read the same reports — that Resilience had a ligament injury and was going to be rested. It will be interesting to see if he actually runs in the Wood after all.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Thank you so much for your post. For a while, I thought I might be losing it.
Do you remember where you read that report, because I don’t.
Anyway, I was relieved to hear that Resilience is doing fine and will run in the Wood.
Good luck.
Thank you Bill I’m glad I texted Mott about it. Rumors are alwlays flying on the Derby trail. Those are great bets . Good luck
Thanks, Steve
Bill, good to know Resilience is well.
Hi Mike
Yes indeed, we can put those injury reports to rest. Steve explained it well, “Rumors are always flying on the Derby trail.”
Good luck Mike.
Hi Steve, the DRF today indicated that Top Conor and Good Money will be rerouted to the Bluegrass as Brown didn’t think they would draw into the Wood. Top Conor could change how the Bluegrass is run for the favorites as he has good early speed. Your thoughts ?
Thanks Steve
Good spotting, JC! It was starting to look like the (G1) Blue Grass was going off with 6 starters and the G2 Wood with 14. Smart move by Chad Brown.
Brown was planning on running Top Conor in the Wood and mentioned he would target the Preakness as he believed he was better suited for that race … well now he’s in Kentucky …my hopes are he upsets the field in the Bluegrass !
Thanks J C
You bet !
Great read Steve, the best so for this year! The Devil is in the detail and you certainly gave it to us. I agree with you about having Lukas back again!
Thanks very much Derek