Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 12
Well, the Kentucky Derby picture is as clear as it is going to get, except for who the true No. 1 horse is. We will have a little time to ponder it during a short break next week to celebrate the 20th anniversary of Smarty Jones’ memorable Kentucky Derby victory. Because of the time off, the comments on some of the top contenders are even longer than usual. If anything breaks or there are any revelations to share, we will post a modified Derby Rankings next Thursday and place Smarty in the archives. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 8, 2024 – Week 12
By Steve Haskin
1—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
The coward in me calls it a tie. Half of me feels Sierra Leone can devour him going 1 ¼ miles and half feels he won’t get close enough to him. On paper, Fierceness is barely No. 1 for now because I hate to keep going back and forth and it seems everyone is on the Sierra Leone bandwagon and still finding faults with Fierceness, who can be a repolarizing figure. I can even see myself going back to Sierra Leone after everything is assimilated. So who and what are we really dealing with when it comes to Fierceness? Did he just start to sprout wings when he was a baby? Hardly; the truth is, no one paid much attention to him. Raised and broke at historic Ocala Stud, he never did anything wrong and never had a bad day, but he also didn’t do anything to grab your attention and just went about his business, according to Ocala Stud’s David O’Farrell. This is all leading somewhere. “The deadline was coming up when we had to ship him to Todd and they need to be three-eighths fit,” O’Farrell said. “So in the last two weeks we let him run for the first time and he relished it. He never ‘wowed’ you galloping, but he was a different horse when we turned his head loose. When I saw that I thought, ‘Alright he could be something.’ When we sent him to Todd it was the same thing. He didn’t think too much of him at first, but when he started to breeze he blew everyone away. Whoever they threw at him he destroyed.” Last week we said the best way to beat a fast horse is to make him go slow. Perhaps O’Farrell’s recollections helped solve some of the mystery behind Fierceness’ inconsistency. Going very slow, like in the Holy Bull, and being near the back of the pack in the muddy Champagne after breaking poorly, he was just another horse, but the three times he was let loose and allowed to run he was untouchable. In the Florida Derby he was allowed to run 15 lengths faster than in the Holy Bull. Who really knows for sure? But perhaps the antidote for his inconsistency is simply to make sure he breaks sharply and just let him run.
2—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
Trying to decide who to rank No.1 was by far the toughest thing I have had to do this year. Both he and Fierceness are polar opposites but so freakishly talented in their own way. As dominating as Fierceness can be, Sierra Leone gives you the feeling there isn’t a lead big enough or a track bias he can’t overcome. I do want to see his Thoro-Graph number, just to get an idea how much he has closed the huge gap between him and Fierceness and how those numbers look going into the Derby. But there were also other factors to consider. Sierra Leone did save ground, closed his final three-eighths in :38 off a perfect pace setup, refused to get in the gate, and still has a habit of drifting in across the entire track. Don’t misunderstand, those simply are the reasons I have him at No. 2 and not No. 1. This horse is a physical freak with the talent to match. What was once a big gangly kid with a huge stride is now a powerful juggernaut who builds up momentum with such force he just steamrolls his opponents in the stretch. Yet you can turn him on and off and he is nimble enough to find his holes, going inside or outside horses. And he always has a escape route because there is no such thing for him as going too wide. You can steer him 12 wide and he’ll still mow them down. Even growing up he was never an efficient mover and his legs still look they’re going in all directions, but he always had an incredible reach to his stride and is able to power his way through it. What could also move him back up to the top after everything is assimilated is the fact that in addition to Track Phantom and Just a Touch, he has inhaled the Louisiana Derby winner and Wood Memorial winner, and all those are far superior than the horses Fierceness has been running against. I think I just changed my mind.
3—Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit)
At David Scanlon’s training center in Ocala, there is a main barn and a barn for the 2-year-old sales horses. In the main barn was a big beautiful $2.3 million yearling named Sierra Leone. In the sales barn was a big powerful colt Scanlon had bought as a yearling and pinhooked in the Ocala 2-year-old sale named Just a Touch. Because the sales horses were on a different timetable the two colts never crossed paths. That is until Saturday when they ran 1,2 in the Blue Grass Stakes with powerhouse performances. Just a Touch was so big and muscular and had such an enormous stride, Scanlon said he did things on the track horses like him are not supposed to do. That carried over to the sale when he breezed an eighth of a mile in :09 4/5. And that is why he is ranked so high. He is still doing things horses are not supposed to do, even with Sierra Leone blowing by him late. Whereas Sierra Leone had two 1 1/8-mile stakes under his belt, Just a Touch had never even been two turns or run on a fast track. Yes, he did get a bit tired in the stretch and came home slow, but I’m looking at the other end of the race when he chased Sierra Leone’s rabbit, the promising Top Conor, through rapid fractions of :23, :46 2/5, and 1:10 2/5, which are almost the identical fractions of the seven-furlong Commonwealth Stakes earlier in the day. The fact that he was being ridden three furlongs out and put Top Conor away approaching the eighth pole and opened a 1 ½-length lead off those fractions in his first two-turn race and third start of his career showed me enough to suggest this was merely a prelude to what is to come now that he has some experience and bottom under him. And on top of that he had to contend with Sierra Leone sideswiping him coming across the track at him and shoving him in several paths. So the bottom line is I am expecting a big move forward in the Derby, where he should be able to settle behind a softer pace and have more left at the end.
4—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
He had his first work over the Churchill Downs track and it couldn’t have gone much better, as he drilled a half in a sharp :48 2/5. He went his two quarters in :24 and :24 2/5 and galloped out a strong five-eighths in 1:01 1/5. That first work at Churchill is always an important step and he seemed to handle it beautifully. According to racing manager and co-owner Jason Loutsch, “It went great. He’s improving; these are exciting times.” The Albaugh family team had similar exciting times last year with Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire. His 4 ¼-length victory made him one of the favorites at Churchill Downs. He rallied strongly, but came up just short, finishing third, beaten only 1 ½ lengths. Flavien Prat was aboard then and he likely will be aboard Catching Freedom after giving the colt a masterful ride in the Louisiana Derby, coming from dead-last and out-closing a powerful closer in Honor Marie, while getting a career-high Brisnet middle and late pace figure and speed figure and career-high Beyer and Thoro-Graph figures. So there is no doubt he is improving at the right time, and having won at a mile, 1 1/16 miles, and 1 3/16 miles and placing at 1 1/8 miles, and also winning his career debut by nearly four lengths at Churchill Downs, he has the foundation and obviously loves the racetrack. And he has shown he is an easy horse to ride, having four jockeys in his five starts. That is a strong resume going into the Derby, especially for a horse who may be overshadowed by the bigger names.
5—Resilience (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike)
I have a confession to make. I always make it a point to resist temptation and place a Future Wager bet, mainly because I don’t want to have a personal connection to the Derby Rankings. So I invested only words, saying after the Risen Star, “If I had to pick a horse who looks ready to make the biggest move forward on the Derby trail I might very well choose (Resilience) off his overlooked fourth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes. And I would love to have him at 83-1 in the Future Wager. I have watched this race a number of times and my eyes keep winding up on him due mainly to the way he moves so fluidly and his overall presence.” Then a few weeks ago I wrote, “For big bombs I would love to have Resilience at a mouth-watering 128-1. Those odds are almost insulting for a horse I believe has a bright future and whose performance in the Risen Star was overlooked by most. This is a sneaky good horse.” Well, I couldn’t help but cave this past weekend when I saw that Resilience was yet again being disrespected in the Future Wager, so I splurged and wagered a whopping $2 on him at an absurd 76-1. I apologize for getting personal, but 20 minutes after the wagering closed I did get a kick out of seeing him go off at 9-2 in the Wood Memorial and win by 2 ¼ lengths, exhibiting all the traits I saw in the Risen Star. Realistically, however, we’re not looking at fast speed figures and the reason he is not ranked higher is because the three horses behind him in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th were 106-1, 38-1, and 80-1, although he did come home his last three-eighths in a respectable :37 3/5 while drifting a bit in the stretch. I don’t know how he stacks up against the top contenders, but I doubt he will be disrespected again.
6—Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
Oddly enough he is the one horse who has checked off every box and has no question marks other than having to get here and show he handles the track. Once he arives safely and begins training I should finally have an idea where he belongs on the Rankings, and it may very well be higher than No. 6. If anyone thought that by jumping up and running a sensational “1” Thoro-Graph number in the Saudi Derby, while having a very tough race and then traveling to Dubai and stretching out to 1 3/16 miles, he was ripe for a bounce, forget it. He came right back and ran another “1.” No 3-year-old has even come close to running back-to-back numbers that fast, and the fact that he was able to pair up that number strongly suggests he can now move forward off it. It all depends on how far he does and how far Fierceness regresses, if he indeed does. If you still are looking for reasons not to bet on Forever Young it would be the fact that he has to travel yet again, and a long way, after racing three times in three countries, and UAE Derby winners, and even runners, have an atrocious record in the Kentucky Derby, although the vast majority of them looked to have little or no chance. And just so you know in advance, a successful horseman who is as sharp as anyone I know when it comes to looking at horses and has been around Forever Young, said this horse does not look good when he gallops in the morning, but it obviously has no effect on the way he performs. So, a warning to all the critics and even vets to be prepared and not get alarmed over it. For now, let’s see how Forever Young travels and how he handles the Churchill Downs track. He has overcome a lot in his two races and has shown, visually and statistically, he can compete with any of our horses.
7—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
He had his first work since the Louisiana Derby breezing a sharp half in :47 4/5 in company at Churchill Downs, galloping out strongly in 1:01 2/5, up six furlongs in 1:15. He had been given a few extra days to get accustomed to the surface before working over it, even though he sure seemed to love it last fall when he had two wins and a second, including an impressive victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Beckman said he was pretty much in an open gallop throughout and was getting over the track really well, adding, “He’s always been better after the wire.” What is impressive about this horse is that he has never run a Brisnet late pace figure under 90, and that 90 was in his career debut going six furlongs. His fastest was a 102 in the Kentucky Jockey Club. And it’s not as if he closes after running slow early. His only middle pace figure under 80 was in the Risen Star Stakes over a deep sloppy track he never got hold of. So he can keep up a good pace and close off it. Some may point out that he was out-closed by Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby, but it also must be pointed out that Catching Freedom was coming off a victory in the Smarty Jones and a third in the Risen Star this year, while Honor Marie had only that one throw-out race in the slop in almost four months. Despite the lack of a true race this year he needed a first or second going 1 3/16 miles to assure him of a spot in the Derby and managed to finish ahead of a lot of talented horses. So now Beckman has an opportunity to go up against his two former bosses, Chad Brown and Wayne Lukas, in the Kentucky Derby. This horse could have overlay written all over him.
8—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
My big question with him was how bad a trip did he actually have in the Rebel Stakes? We just know there was a incident on the first turn in which Liberal Arts came out precariously close to him that neither the pan shot or head-on shot was able to show clearly. After going to the source I am confident enough now to again consider him a serious contender and move him higher. McPeek said that jockey Brian Hernandez told him that he was bumped by Liberal Arts, whose head actually struck him and almost knocked him off his horse, costing him valuable position. As a result he was much farther back than he wanted. He made a good run but had too much ground to make up on two horses who were right up on the pace the whole way. He had to settle for third, while angling in sharply in the upper stretch. Looking at his Thoro-Graph numbers, he has a pattern that could set him up for a big number in the Derby. This is a horse who ran an excellent “6 ½” in only his second career start at 2 on a fast track. After bouncing back from an illness and missing several works he crushed his field by 8 ½ lengths in the Southwest Stakes, earning a super “1/4” Thoro-Graph number, the fastest of the year by far at the time. Having come off a “9 ½” he was eligible to regress after such a huge jump. Considering his trouble in the Arkansas Derby and getting beat 6 ½ lengths his “3 ½” was actually pretty good and at least set him up for another big move back to his Southwest number.
9—Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed)
Welcome, California, to the Kentucky Derby, especially the only horse to slay the multi-headed Hydra known as the Baffert Beast. So are we going to get another Hercules returning to Kentucky, where he began his career by knocking off Resilience and Track Phantom in a one-mile maiden race at Churchill Downs? He then returned to his trainer’s home base at Santa Anita, but was Bafferted in two stakes before escaping to New Mexico and winning the Sunland Derby. D’Amato elected to stay home for the Santa Anita Derby and fortunately had only Baffert’s bench to contend with after the baffling departures of Nysos and the Maymun. But there was still a formidable foe in Imagination, who likes to depend on the camera to determine the outcome of his races. And he did it again when Stronghold battled him to the wire and held on stubbornly for a neck decision. This is a tough consistent colt who always runs hard, but being out of a Jimmy Creed mare and with a ton of speed in his female family it’s difficult to figure out how much farther he wants to go, and he did come home his final three-eighths in a pedestrian :38 2/5. But he is as honest as they come and always puts himself in position to win and will give his all as far as he can. And he has done it in three states in the West, Southwest, and Midwest. For that alone he cannot be dismissed.
10—Endlessly (Mike McCarthy, Oscar Performance – Dream Fuhrever, by Langfuhr)
Well, we have a new photo to put next to “Derby Fever” in the racing dictionary. We just have no idea where or if to rank this horse, not knowing if he is running or not. We’re not saying he should not be in the Derby or even that he can’t win it despite never having run on dirt and 80 percent of his pedigree being geared toward grass. In this day and age when a Derby winner and runner-up can come off the Turfway synthetic track in consecutive years and you can have a horse like Animal Kingdom win the Derby racing on dirt for the first time, who is to say for sure a horse doesn’t belong in the race. What I found most interesting was how adamant trainer Mike McCarthy was when saying immediately after the Jeff Ruby that Endlessly had not worked well on dirt at Santa Anita and would be kept on grass, running next in the American Turf on Derby Day. And then a day or so after Fierceness demolished his field in the Florida Derby, looking once again like a superhorse, it was announced that they are now considering running Endlessly in the Derby and will see how he works. That sure seems like easy diagnosis of Derby fever, which they are entitled to have. In his first work at Churchill Downs he went a half in :49 3/5, which couldn’t have proven much. This is a very talented horse with a dynamite closing kick on grass and synthetic who has earned his way into the Derby. Why the dramatic change of heart? That is between owner and trainer, and if they decide to run it would not only add a talented horse to the field, but a new twist to the Derby picture.
11—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
If he had any shot of wiring the Derby field, that pretty much went up in smoke when Fierceness struck fear in all “speed” horses hoping to take the Derby field a long way. He has managed to dictate the pace in his three graded stakes preps, but did so while running Thoro-Graph numbers of “5,” “6,” and “7,” regressing in each one. We’re not measuring him on his record, toughness, and consistency; anyone would love to have him in their barn. We are just measuring him on how he stacks up going 1 ¼ miles in a 20-horse field, and the prospect of having to hook up with one of the most brilliant Derby contenders seen in many years. He is also going to lose his regular rider. So while the odds are stacked against him he has accomplished enough to deserve a shot at the Derby and to at least make his presence felt and pick up a piece of it. Track Phantom also worked at Churchill Downs, breezing five furlongs in 1:02 with jockey Joel Rosario aboard. He worked in company outside his workmate and was equipped with a small set of blinkers, which could speed up the pace in the Derby if Asmussen uses them in the race.
12—Just Steel, (D. Wayne Lukas, Justify – Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock)
Hard to believe it’s been 25 years since Wayne Lukas won the Derby with Charismatic, and Just Steel could very well go off at close to the same 30-1 odds. I will say one thing about this colt, he is never boring and you have admire his grit and toughness to stand up to Lukas’ aggressive schedule. In a year when the Oaklawn 3-year-olds were limited to only two preps, he ran in all four – Smarty Jones, Southwest, Rebel, and Arkansas Derby – while saving his best effort for last. If there were a graph of his last six races it would look like the proverbial roller coaster, with a Thoro-Graph pattern of “9 “ — “2 ½” — “8” –”2 ½”—“7” – “1.” That last number equaled the third-fastest run all year. His Beyer figures follow the same pattern. In short he has run four more races than the first two finishers of the Blue Grass put together and he keeps coming back for more. He has also run at six different distances and has finished in the money at all six, from 5 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. And if you doubt his class and his versatility he defeated Grade 1 winner Locked by 3 ½ lengths going six furlongs at Saratoga, and finished second to Grade 2 winner Catching Freedom and Grade 1 winner Muth at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles, respectively, at Oaklawn. Now we’re not saying he has a big shot to win the Derby, but you never now when he is going to mess up your exacta.
13—Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter)
Last week I said I have nothing new to say about him, with him taking an eight-week holiday between the Tampa Bay Derby and the Kentucky Derby. After running in two races this year in which they crawled the half and three-quarters in :50 2/5 and 1:14 1/5 and then :51 and 1:16 1/5, it will all be about training from now until the Derby and whether you feel he is good enough to overcome history. Whatever Brown’s reasons are for not having another prep he has had too much success with horses coming off long layoffs to totally dismiss a horse I have been impressed with since his maiden victory, which I felt stamped him as a very talented horse. I believe he suffered from both those slow-paced races and ran extremely well under the circumstances to close strongly. And in case anyone forgot he did finish ahead of Fierceness in the Holy Bull, as unreliable as that may be considering the nature of that race. In any case all we can do is watch him train and decide what you think of him, especially now that he gets Irad Ortiz after Todd Pletcher finally ran out of Derby horses to accompany Fierceness. Domestic Product is still at Payson Park and did work a half in :48 2/5 on Saturday.
14—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
Gargan said they tried to rate him and have him get used to the kickback and he ran flat, but started to pick it up a little at the end. He felt it was a learning experience sitting off a fast pace and they will continue on to the Derby. We don’t how he’ll bounce back. A confirmed frontrunner, he was outrun by a Chad Brown speedster breaking from the rail and couldn’t get closer than fourth. He appeared to be in decent shape racing inside Epic Ride, but once the latter made his move and Dornoch couldn’t keep up, you knew he was pretty much done, ending the short-lived rivalry with Sierra Leone. I don’t believe this came as a big surprise to those who doubted the colt after his rather mundane victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes against a weak depleted field and his continuing greenness, mainly his trouble changing leads. No one is claiming he isn’t a talented and classy colt. I’m just not sure where he’s at right now and if he is ready to compete in a race like the Derby. But I’m not going to drop him completely off a fourth-place finish in which he deviated from his normal style of running. It is hoped that one day he will mature into a professional racehorse and be able to show off his true talents. You still have to give him credit for winning three races in a row, including a pair of Grade 2 stakes.
15—Society Man (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – You Cheated, By Colonel John)
Could we have had the wrong Danny Gargan horse all along? I will rank both next to each other and see how they come up to the Derby. I have no idea why this horse was 106-1 in the Wood Memorial coming off an impressive maiden victory going a mile at Aqueduct, in which he turned in a powerful stretch run from 10 lengths back to win going away by three lengths, with his Beyer figure zooming from the 60s to an 82. I will admit that once El Grande O scratched and Deterministic and Tuscan Sky imploded near the top of the stretch this race was totally up for grabs for second with a bevy of bombs left to chase Resilience. When he cut to the inside it looked for an instant like he had a shot to win, but Resilience was too strong. What is important is that this gelding looks like he is improving, he has shown he has a big closing kick, and he has a bright future, especially being by the red-hot Good Magic.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
One final note of interest about FIERCENESS, who got a huge “negative-3 ½” Thoro-Graph number in the Florida Derby. Last week, we mentioned that the only horse to ever go into the Derby off such a mind-blowing performance was Bellamy Road in 2005 when his speed figures in the Wood Memorial went into orbit, along with his 17 ½-length margin. Well, ironically, where do you think Bellamy Road was trained and prepped for the 2-year-old sale exactly 20 years ago in April? Yep, Ocala Stud, the childhood home of Fierceness, whose fans will have to hope he doesn’t bounce off that number, as Bellamy Road did in the Derby. But the fact that he has already run a “negative-1 ½” as a 2-year-old, even if he does regress it should only be minimal and still fast enough to beat these horses.
Many have questioned his courage under fire, based mainly on his Holy Bull debacle, but let’s not forget that he pressed the pace set by Champagne runner-up General Partner a long way in the Breeders’ Cup, while being allowed to run his first three quarters in :23 and change, which is what he wants to do. And then when looked in the eye by Muth at the quarter pole he just shrugged him off and quickly drew away. I’m not saying Fierceness is without flaws, but it is very early in his career to put labels on him and his strengths far exceed anything we have seen so far.
The same goes for SIERRA LEONE, who also has his foibles, but his victories have been so jaw-dropping in a total different way than Fiercenesses.’ People seem drawn to him and are more in awe of him and his commanding presence than they are of Fierceness, just as they are more awestruck by seeing a big old-fashioned locomotive barreling down the tracks with its whistle blowing and the thick black smoke from the chimney blanketing the sky than they are seeing the California Zephyr whiz by at super speed.
Now we just have to get them both to the Derby, which all of a sudden seems a long way off. Throw in an undefeated dual Derby winner from Japan and, as Ralph Kramden would say, “Bang! Zoom!”
It looks as if HADES is not out of the Derby picture after his crushing defeat in the Florida Derby, in which he was bumped early and fell back to last, where he had absolutely no chance to renew his rivalry with Fierceness. Sitting at No. 24 with 30 points, the plan is to run him in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes, where a victory and 20 more points would assure him a spot in the field. You can bet Chad Brown will be rooting for him. Trainer Joe Orseno says he plans on putting blinkers on the gelding, something he had been thinking about before, but the horse kept winning. “We’re going all out to get into the Derby,” Orseno said. “If he wins, he’s in.” If he does show good speed with the blinkers and wins impressively that could push Sierra Leone to the No. 1 spot.
Also entered in the Lexington in addition to the undefeated ENCINO, who will be making his dirt debut, is our old friend LIBERAL ARTS, who lost it for some reason in the Arkansas Derby, making a sharp right-hand turn on the first turn ad taking himself right out of the race. Co-owner Evan Ferraro said they are not looking past this race and will take it one race at a time. “He seems to be just as fresh after the race as he was before the race so we decided to run him right back. The only other option was to cut back to a mile for the Pat Day, so we opted for this. Hopefully he redeems himself.” Even with a victory he probably will need one or two horses to defect to get in the Derby. The Lexington also serves as an excellent prep for the Preakness.
Another who is hoping to get in the Derby is trainer John Ennis, who watched EPIC RIDE run the race of his life to finish third in the Blue Grass Stakes at 51-1. But with 35 points and being No. 23 on the list he needs several defections. And the two directly ahead of him, GRAND MO THE FIRST and COMMON DEFENSE, are also waiting to get in. But he already has one, with DETERMINISTIC an unlikely starter after his surprisingly dull effort in the Wood Memorial.
Unlike Endlessly we at least know Epic Ride handles the dirt quite well. He was always pretty close even with the strong pace, sitting right behind Just a Touch and kept going at an even pace and hanging in there the whole way. He did get a little intimidated by the presence of Sierra Leone drifting in on him and shied away. He lost a bit of momentum but quickly picked it up again and ran strong to the sire. We know that the mile and a quarter would not pose a problem and with a race over the dirt he could move forward and be a factor at Churchill Downs, at least to pick up a piece of it like he did in the Blue Grass, where he stayed in contention after being close to that quick pace. When they do that and run evenly throughout the race while running fast fractions they often are dangerous next time out. If he gets in he surely will find a place on the Rankings.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I’ve not been impressed with the fillies this year, but for Thorpedo Anna, who could be any kind! I’m planning on playing her in the Oaks/Derby doubles, with six colts …Tamara has returned to the worktab, she might be one for later on, and Chad Brown has a nice one that recently returned, at Gulfstream…..
What don’t you like about Tarifa? I think she’s terrific
There’s nothing I don’t like about Tarifa, I just have not been impressed by the races she’s been winning, SOMEBODY has to win the races, for me at least I’ve only been impressed by Thoropedo Anna so far this year …
Thorpedo Anna ran three times in 30 days, as a two year old, came back at three and won The Fantasy from the far outside in a hand ride! Bet a nice filly…..she settles nicely, she has a big kick! Lots to like ….
I’m on Thorpedo Anna, too … she’s big and imposing!
I always liked Colonel John, he just ran OK in The Derby, his Travers win was just OK, and his Breeders Cup Classic 5th was solid, he turned a bit….I thought his one turf race at Del Mar was spectacular, but they never again tried turf….he was a beautiful horse, not as gangly as his sire, but not nearly as successful…..I was thinking about him last night, and this AM was flipping thru the telly, there was a story about the man who developed the aerial plan for Desert Storm, named “Colonel John”, which was a coincidence, one could say a “Mystikal” coincidence!
I have a question for anyone who might be following the Oaks leader board. West Omaha has 65 points but she’s not listed anywhere on the Oaks board, what’s up? Thanks!!
She is #7 with 90 points on the Kentucky Oaks leader board.
thank you Lynda! Yeah I dug a little deeper and found her on BH….funny that the Kentucky Derby website doesn’t have her listed!?
They are not running West Omaha in the Kentucky Oaks, Brad Dox mentioned the Black Eyed Susans is next.
I believe Brad has already said they are skipping the Oaks and pointing towards the BES on Preakness weekend.
Craig and Armaan, thank you both for the update, I had not heard that yet.
Per Christophe Clement, Derterministic is “unlikely” for the Kentucky Derby. To say that was very disappointing news would be an understatement.
Now, I’m down to two horses in my Derby Futures wagers, namely, Resilience (107-1) and Catching Freedom (28-1). Hopefully, those two will remain fit and healthy moving forward to the first Saturday in May.
Catching Freedom has a Resilience connotation.
An Exacta wager seems appropriate, which I have in Pool 3.
DETERMINISTIC most likely out. This moves up GRAND MO THE FIRST.
Brief video this morning of Forever Young on the track earlier this morning.
Appears to be settling in nicely, moving confidently and smoothly across surface, ears pricked forward.
FYI, According to Mr. Yahagi from a Saudi Cup interview, Forever Young is not a great morning workout horse. His strong competitive style comes from racing like he is bored just working out.
Bill, he was just galloping, not an actual workout this morning.
I know. I was just making the comment so when he does. Appreciate your comments and insights.
OK
I heard today Vlahos was sold, O’Neill has him and they’re running in The Pat Day Mile…..perhaps he will win, ala Pat Day .on the front end all the way, Pat’s forte….
My current Derby Dozen in preferential order are as follows:
1) Fierceness
2) Resilience
3) Sierra Leone
4) Catching Freedom
5) Just a Touch
6) Honor Marie
7) Stronghold
8) Track Phantom
9) Endlessly
10) Dornoch
11) Just Steel
12) Encino
In the event that Deterministic runs in the Derby, which doesn’t seem likely, I’ll fit him into my top 12, and drop one of the bottom colts.
Just saw tweet, Forever Young cleared quarantine in Chicago.
That is why he was on track today.
Current odds from Bet365
Sierra Leone 11-4
Fierceness 7-2
Forever Young 8-1
Catching Freedom 12-1
Stronghold 14-1
Just A Touch 16-1
Resilience 20-1
Encino 20-1
Honor Marie?
33-1 !!!!!!
That’s crazy!
Thank you!
What are the odds???
I turned on the tv for the war coverage and the first thing I see is the UN speaker for Sierra Leone lol.
Not kidding. Yes, that’s impossible. No I’m not sure if it’s a sign. Lol
Honor Marie worked in 48.80 this morning at CD. The work isn’t posted yet, but it sounds like he did well…galloped out in 1:02
Now it’s up – he looked good, did it easily and galloped out well
Not expecting reply Betsy,but always liked this colt. Super talented!
He really is! I’m not going to say he’ll win, but I think he’s going to give a good account of himself ..
I really hope he can make his sire proud!
Agreed!
I saw the video. Looked good!
If you have X (Twitter) do a search for Forever Young you will see photos and video of Forever Young on the track this morning.
You might have to scroll down a couple of pages to see Forever Young posts from several sources.
I’m confused. I thought that Forever Young had to be quarantined for 3 days, no?
Hey Dewey, I thought the same but he was on the track today.
I am not objective but he looked awfully good
I thought the same.
Encino earned a 91 BSF for his win at Keenland yesterday if my source is correct. That would put him around the same place as Dornoch. But I would say that Encino has more up-side than Dornoch at this point. Now comes word that Encino is in the Derby if the connections want it. That would give Brad C 3 entrants.
Hey Tommy:
The DRF has it as 94 under stakes results. I’m hoping he goes too — his dam, Evening Jewel, is a half sister to Kentucky Derby winner STREET SENSE. That’s the kind of connection I like to see in a pedigree.
Just for clarification, Glittering Jewel, is the dam of Encino, not Evening Jewel.
Bill, your brain is MUCH sharper than mine! Good catch.
I seriously doubt that my brain is sharper that yours, Ms Blacktype.
I’ve made more than my share of errors on this blog.
AT 84, my brain is in serious decline. 🙂
I don’t frequently comment but I do read everything. Bill, your posts are always ones I enjoy reading.
Thank you for the kind words, Killerfrog.
Good luck.
The BBT* must have reevaluated the race.
*Beyer Brain Trust
Hey TommyMcD
I agree, it’s time to take Encino as a serious contender in the Derby. He earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 108, for his Lexington win, and has now recorded three straight wins this year. He possesses ascending Equibase Speed Figures of, 81-91-100-108, which is a strong indication that he’s getting faster with each succeeding race. The fact that Encino is a Godolphin homebred is a major plus, IMO.
His sire, Nyquist was a KD winner, and his dam sire, Bernardini, should provide a significant amount of stamina influence as well.
Brad Cox must be feeling pretty good with three major players in this year’s Derby, namely Catching Freedom, Just a Touch and Encino.
I’m thinking Cox will run Encino in the Derby to keep Fierceness honest on the lead….he also has Catching Freedom , who is working well and will appreciate pace up front…
If he is looking to win going for the lead (unless it is pouring rain ) with Fierceness would be a mistake. He doesn’t have enough base under him. I would let Dornach and Track Phantom do that. I would run him midpack. He can be rated.
I think Cox is looking more at Catching Freedom for the win …
Justin Milano who won the 2,000 meter Satsuki-Sho in Japan today goes back to Secretariat via his sire Kizuna’s dam Catequil by Storm Cat.
Via his dam Margot Did, Justin Milano goes back to Something Royal.
Unfortunate news regarding No More Time as mentioned below. Per his trainer he will have surgery and might possibly be back later this year or as a 4 year old.
As mentioned below, this moves Encino up to number 20 and eligible for the Derby. Godolphin’s Racing Manager said in a live interview yesterday after the race that all options as to his next race are open to discussion.
Grand Mo The First is now first in line as AE.
There is still the looming injunction request from Zedan Racing and CDI’s motion to dismiss to be decided. A hearing will be held on Monday on CDI’s motion to dismiss.
Congratulations to all of the winners and their connections yesterday both here and abroad. It was overall a very exciting day in my opinion. Looking forward to Steve’s next column.
Happy Sunday everyone.
Let’s hope Muth is allowed to participate as I believe he is peaking, prepped perfectly for the KD. Love the 7 furlong winning race to start the year, I think he’s the winner..
With all the prep races out of the way and the KD a little more than 21 days away and with the field for the race starting to take shape it time to getting down to nitty gritty for the trainers to get their horse ready for the biggest race of their young career. Here is my summation if I was a trainer on how I would to bring my horse coming into the race. This will be based on my 50+ years of watching trainers like Whittingham, Barrera, Stephens , Delp etc…. . I will it break down by 3 types of racing forms, Frontrunner, Stalker and Closers. I only base on the last 3 workout I would give each type of running style. I do not expect any of today’s trainers to train their horses this way except for the trainers of closers. Today’s trainers for reasons unknown to me just seems to train their horse only one way regardless of running style but here goes.
Frontrunners ( for the likes of Fierceness, Dornach , Track Phantom)
For this type of runner the emphasis is not speed as for the most part they have a natural affinity for that but more of stamina building. I call this type of workout 24 x 24 you will see why I call it that. First workout would be this Tuesday April 16th and it would be a 1 mile workout. The first 2 furlongs of the work would be in 24 seconds. The next 4 furlongs would be done in 1 minutes and then the last 2 furlongs would be completed in 24 seconds. Total time for this work would be 1:48. Then the next workout would be April 23rd and and it would be a 1 1/2 mile workout and the first 2 furlongs would be done in 24 seconds. The next 8 furlongs would be completed in 2 minutes would be done in 2 minutes follow by the last 2 furlongs done in 24 seconds. Total time for the workout 2:48. The last workout would be April 30th and it would be a 4 furlong work of evenly split of the first 2 furlongs of 24 seconds and last 2 furlongs of 24 second. In between the works would be interspersed with walking (day after work) , jogging ( up to 2 miles ) and gallups (up to 1 1/2 miles).
Stalkers/ mid pack runners ( Just a Touch, Mystik Dan, Stronghold, Just Steel )
First workout April 17th would be a 5 furlong work in the time of 59 to 1 minute emphasis of the last 2 furlongs of 24 seconds or better. Next work would be a 1 mile work on April 24th with the first 5 furlongs in 1:05 and last 3 furlongs all out in the 34 to 36 second range. Final work out would be either on May 1st or 2nd and would be a 3 furlong workout (blow out) in the range of 35 to 36 second with the emphasis on the last 2 furlongs. This is open the lungs and to get the horse on his toes In between works would be similar to frontrunners of walking, jogging and gallups. Instructions to jockey for the race would be get the horse at the beginning of the race to get the horse no closer of 6 lengths to the leader and no farther than 10 lengths and then just before the far turn start moving the horse toward the leaders with the horse being all out at the top of the stretch.
Closers (Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie )
All works for this type of runner would be 5 furlongs with the emphasis the last 3 furlongs. These will be fast works of between 58 plus to 1 minute. 1st on the 15th, 2nd on 22nd and 3rd being the 29th. Between works similar to Frontrunners and Stalkers. Instructions to the jockey would be just get out of the gate in good order and angle to rail. Don’t worry too much about positioning in the first part of the just save ground going around the first turn and running near the back. Midway thru the back stretch start moving the horse up trying for best position (inside or out and this may depend whether the horse likes to run inside or outside of horses) to take the horse.
Well there you have it my thoughts on bring a horse up for this race. With a 20 horse field positioning and racing luck play a big part on trying to win this race (spectacle).
Having a jockey that pays attention to track conditions (biases) and knowledge of where he is in the race will play a big part in their success with his horse.
No love for Resilience I take it. He’s conspicuously missing from your list of “stalkers”.
He checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Dismiss Resilience at your own peril.
Good luck, Downthestretch.
Bill, I didn’t dismiss him (or others) just not familiar with their running style but if you feel he has a stalker running style he would be set for that running style. He definitely needs to be respected the way he ran in the Wood.
Agreed.
This will be an exciting week for me to see how Forever Young adjusts to his new home and grounds. He is 5 wins for 5 races over 5 different race tracks and seems to have adjusted extremely well each time. He has not had a post position inside in any of his races which I believe is an advantage because if I remember from a talk of Mr. Yahagi in Riyadh, he does not love dirt in his face which could be an issue if drawn inside in Derby. But he has a tremendous heart and loves to run with a very strong closing speed. I have copied an excellent url from youtube which shows each of his races. Quite impressive IMO for such a young well traveled horse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlNMJ372Wb8&t=20s
The YouTube video seems to start at the 20 second mark. Back it up to the start.
Thank you, Bill. The video gives us a good overview of Forever Young’s races to date. I, too, am anxious to see him on track at Churchill. Hoping that You Tube will be showing the morning works of all the Derby contenders in the coming days.
Stay positive. The Forever Young fan club must keep sending good vibes and karma his way. Arigatou gozai masu.!
As Winston posted, No More Time is out of the Derby with a condylar fracture that will require surgery. Too bad — he was training well, and while nothing in his career suggests that he would have beaten Fierceness or Sierra Leone, he’s a very nice horse. Trainer said he might be back in the fall or in his 4YO year.
Encino is in! From DRF:
“No More Time, winner of the Grade 3 Sam. F. Davis and runner-up in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, suffered an injury during a workout Sunday morning at the Palm Meadows training center in South Florida and is out of the Kentucky Derby, trainer Jose D’Angelo said.”
Excited about Encino, but I hate it happened like this. I was hoping some other connections would come to their senses instead.
Others will drop out for non-injury reasons. Surgery scheduled for No More Time.
Only Fierceness and Mystik Dan have posted BSFs over 100. Forever Young unknown. But a few horses are trending the right way. Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and
Just a Touch. I don’t care for Mystik Dan. Forever Young carries the weight of past UAE Derby horses with him. Plenty of people like him. Which makes me think that I better keep an eye on him at Churchill.
We’re inside 3 weeks now.
Honor Marie is being overlooked.
Not only that …Forever Young beat fields in Saudi Arabia and Dubai that at least ten qualifiers would’ve drubbed!. ..Hard to quantify Forever Young!..
Shin Emperor disappointed in the Satsuki Sho, Japanese 2,000 Guineas, but he had some excuses as his trainer was not confident the conditions would suit and the horse was not fully prepared. I think we have all heard these laments on more than one occasion. lol. He ran reasonably well non the less.
Hello Davids and thank you.
Congratulations to Adare Manor.
Taxed for the win!
Hurray!!
WOW, just saw the results. Stupid wheel flew off the stupid lawnmower, hit the house. Had to call in the resident mechanic.
Congratulations!!!
Thrilled for Encino (Man) and all his connections. The Godolphin homebred now has 40 points on the Churchill Downs points list, so he has a good chance of making the Kentucky Derby. Vaults to #10 on my personal Top 20.
So sad to hear Marty Wygod has passed away. Would love to see Resilience get a top 3 finish so he can enjoy it from on high.
Liberal Arts had nothing today. Was it the quick turnaround in 2 weeks or is he just not as good as I thought? Probably not as good as I thought.
Encino looked much bigger than The Wine Steward. Like so many of the Brad C horses. Big, strong, and muscular.
Hades, who beat Fierceness at Gulfstream, ran poorly again today.
Two week turnaround played role.
One gorgeous colt.
Lynda and Matthew liked Encino. Congrats!
Nice pick, y’all! I would like to see him get in on May 4. I like how free his running style is, and the stride efficiency.
Decisions, decisions, decisions in the Jenny Wiley.
Fluffy Socks, Gina Romantica, or English Rose.
Lynda, they say the English grow the best roses, so it’s English Rose for me. Besides, Charlie Appleby always gets my attention.
I blew that one, English Rose did get up for second.
On a sad note, Marty Wygod, renown owner/breeder, died in his sleep Friday night.
He and his wife, Pam bred one of this year’s Kentucky Derby contenders, Resilience.
RIP, Marty.
Condolences to family and loved ones.
I just texted him a few days ago and he told me excited they are. Very sad.
My Condolences, Steve, was Marty Wygod a friend of yours?
My thoughts and prayers go out to the Wygod family.
With the passing of Mr. Wygod, his daughter, Emilly Bushnell, will be facing a monumental challenge in dealing with her grief and moving forward with her Derby hopeful, Resilience. Fortunately, Resilience is in the capable hands of William Mott, and it’s been confirmed that Junior Alvarado will ride him in the Derby.
What a great tribute it would be if the horse he and his wife bred, wears the roses in this year’s Derby. It is certainly possible.
As we all remember, Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado were the Cody’s Wish team. Maybe Cody and Mr. Wygod will be together cheering for Resilience.
Thanks Bill. Met him twice, sorry to hear the bad news.
If…. Fierceness draws outside and breaks clean he will be formidable……if Fierceness and Sierra Leone both break poorly…..Sierra could still win but Fierceness would run up the track, so the break is all-important! Three weeks out, time to watch the works, and the morning gallops!
In my opinion, that’s not the kind of derby prep that wins the derby.
Sorry, I was speaking about Fierceness.
What kind do you mean?
Easy on the front, geared down early.
Yeah. Other than the final preps for Maximum Security, Justify, Nyquist, Big Brown, War Emblem.
Every one of those horses you mentioned were ridden out through the wire. Nyquist maybe the least but he battled the first half mile. Fierceness was geared down mid stretch. I personally don’t think that’s a good way to go into the derby.
Thanks, Sherlock. I suppose it all depends on how we view the horse’s expenditure of energy and then relate it to what’s needed to be in top form on the first Saturday in May. Fierceness went the final eighth in 12 3/5 sec. The gate-to-wire winners that I mentioned all had clear leads by the stretch call, like Fierceness, and extended their leads to the finish. None of them went faster than Fierceness in the final furlong.
The early co-favorite, Sierra Leone, had the kind of prep that DOESN’T win the Derby. He was 8 3/4 lengths behind after 4f. You have to go back to Grindstone in 1996 to find a Derby winner that far back in the final prep.
At this point, the only concern for me about Fierceness is the possible bounce from the big effort. Regardless, I doubt that I’ll be betting on either Fierceness or SL at their expected odds. But both of them are deserving favorites. Handicapping for me begins with the PP draw on the 27th.
For those who were concerned about the gallop out by CATCHING FREEDOM after the La Derby: He worked 4f in 48 2/5 at CD on April 5, 13 days after the race. This morning was another 4f work, in 48 flat. I haven’t found a video. I would expect him to be given two more works for the Derby, probably at 5f. All systems GO!
Lexington Stakes — It’ll be tough for a longshot to beat the several colts that will be all out to win the 20 Derby points, or even to beat The Wine Steward coming off a 6-month layoff. But I like the chances of SECRET CHAT (ML 15-1) in his second race after a 6.5-month layoff. In all three of his career races, he’s had horrible starts. By Union Rags out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare, he should like the stretch out to 8.5f. I’m hoping that new rider Rosario will work his magic from Post 1.
I Am Maximus wins Grand National. All horses and riders reported as coming back safe.
Race of the day could be the Apple Blossom with a show down between Wet Paint, Taxed and Adare Manor. Would not rule out Shotgun Hottie. “When she is hot, she’s hot. When she’s not, she’s not” (a little change up to the lyrics from a Jerry Reid song from 1971).
Lynda I watched a Jerry Reed movie last week, and then listened to his songs on my wife’s music thing (!) he was a talented man ….Honor D Lady is another contender in that big purse race, I’m rooting for Adare, the big black mare, I boxed her with Taxed, who loves the track….some good racing today!…
Yes he was. Loved him in Smokey and The Bandit
I like Wet Paint, Taxed in the AB. Honor Lady D would be my longshot.
Been bouncing around today. Watched QE Stakes in the middle of the night. Then Grand National. So yes lots of great racing today.
Gorgeous day here, in and out feeding critters, walking dogs, need to start on mowing yard (about time, it’s baling height), watching horse racing.
Hope you have a great day at the track!
Forever Young is in the house. Arrived this morning.
Blanket on, could not see body condition.
Very alert, looking all around.
Very pleasant face.
Yes, very alert. A nice looking colt.
He seems to be!
Guessing he went into the quarantine barn. 5 days maybe or 3, cannot remember.
Good luck today!
PS, he looks very tall to me…those long legs maybe??
Maybe! 😄
Hi Lynda, did you see a video of Forever Young? All I could find were a few head shots on Twitter. Could you direct me to a video of his arrival? Thanks.
Pride of Jenni by Pride of Dubai, grandsire Street Cry has just won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwicke.
She decimated the field and a was ahead by 30 lengths at one point, finished by 15 lengths.
Thrilling to watch!!
Davids if you are listening I know you loved that!
The official margin in the end was 6 1/2 lengths in a time 2:02.02 for the 2000 metres (~1 1/4 miles) event. The jockeys on the beaten horse made no effort to catch her mid-race and hence they had not enough track to beat her. Brilliant ride!
Thanks.
I like the way Encino comes into the Lexington…his works are progressively better, which I love. ..Godolphin homebred has never run a bad race …
…on Turfway’s AW track. 😉 You’re right about his works. And two of the three were at 5f. He had only 4f works before his last race.
Yes, today is his first turf test, I boxed him with The Wine Steward, whose 2yo numbers are as good as everyone else’s 3yo #s…..and a 30-1 shot How’s Ur Attitude, I fear Liberal Arts, who ran two weeks ago and had a big excuse….
I meant his first DIRT test…..
Good luck. It’s a nice race, on a beautiful day in Lexington.
I think Encino has a good chance to win. Will not get him into the Derby unless several scratches.
Good prep for the Preakness maybe?
I expect several defections in the next couple of weeks. (Post position draw on Saturday, April 27.)
Congrats to Master of the Seas (William Buick) and Naval Power (Tyler G) for 1, 2 finishes in Makers Mark for trainer Charlie Appleby and Godolphin
So enjoyed the conversations this and thanks for the laughs and giggles.
Good luck everyone with your selections tomorrow, safe races for all and have a great weekend!
I am a big fan of Master of the Seas, and was thrilled that he showed right back up today. Naval Power is a cool one, too. Six year old geldings who are winning are nothing but good for the sport, in my opinion!
With that in mind, but sort of off topic, does anyone know much about Thoroughbred aftercare in Europe? What sort of retirement could this grand horse expect one day?
Katy there are Thoroughbred Aftercare organizations in England that are similar to the ones we have here.
Godolphin has their own program called Lifetime Care.
Lynda when I saw how Master of the Seas was tucked inside behind, and saw him relax …I thought they might stay inside, I think he would’ve won by five or six lengths but he easily won anyway—truly a good turf miler, one of the best regularly seen in the US this century….
Hope he comes back soon!
I feel the Arkansas Derby was the strongest prep. So I’m thinking Win/Place on Just Steel. And a big exacta box with Sierra Leone.
Just found these quotes from D. Wayne on Just Steel….
“He’s got some quality about him. If I can use the next month to tighten on him a little bit I think he will keep the race honest. I think he will take a quantum leap forward. I could see him improving something like 10 points from the last race to this race. I expect him to jump forward quite a bit.”
I lean toward agreeing with you about the Arkansas Derby, which had four graded stakes winners. Before the final round of preps, the Risen Star Stakes had a quality field. Good luck with your picks. I’m waiting until Derby day. Maybe even until the post parade.
Monday I will have my Smarty Jones anniversary column as well as a very different type of Derby Rankings. So watch for Askin Haskin coumn AND Derby Rankings.
A double scoop of ice cream! Mint chocolate chip, of course.
Of course
Dairy Queen Turtle Pecan Blizzard for me.
The horse I was dismissing …after running so well in January–Mystik Dan—-Ive changed my mind on him thanks in part to your info Steve, he really did not lay an egg in the Arkansas Derby, he was finishing some—I just think there’s more there, in this horse….he might float up to 15-1…..
I couldnt agree more. I have moved him up in the Rankings. Also see Monday’s totally different type of Rankings
I see Beyer has adjusted his February win from a 103 …now it’s 101….Beyers!….
Matthew, you could be seeing 25-1 on Mystik Dan.
I was also scratching my head a little with this horse, until I started thinking about what Step-Mother Nature might have in store. If I recall, Mystik Dan is proven in the wet.
On the flip side, last summer, we saw Fierceness say no thanks on the sloppy Saratoga track. Who knows if the conditions of that track will compare to any other racetrack ever again. I hope not!
Sierra Leone went for $2.3 million as a yearling —a friend once told me if a horse goes for a million as a two year old he’s probably pretty good, but you never know about a yearling purchase, well it turns out he was worth the price, but had they sold at two….maybe a lower price, because of his paddling..
If you watch the video of Sierra Leone going through the sale it is probable that you might pick-up on the possible explanation for his eccentric running style.
He was indeed an impressive yearling and I can understand why he sold for $2.3 million.
I write about him Monday going through the sale visually and I saw nothing in the ring but positive., especially demeanor, which is all I was looking at. I am curious what you could see standing there in the ring that would explain his crazy action. I will certainly go back and look..
With that small head on that long frame…..Sierra Leone looks like those 18th century paintings of Thoroughbreds…..
Hi Steve,
First off, he was a very impressive yearling, his presence and demeanor just drew me in!
.
Watched the video two more times focusing on his legs and paused the video several times when I had a good view of his legs.
What I saw was very straight, good legs, good bone until you get to the pasterns which are longer and slightly more sloping that what we typically see on Thoroughbreds. He is neither over or behind the knee and I did not see that he was angled back on his heels, had shallow heels or weak pasterns as we sometimes see in horses with longer, sloping pasterns which is good.
What I saw is that he toes out slightly on the left front leg and on the rear right leg. I observed this when he walking into the sales ring and when he was stopped and standing pretty much squared up. I did not see paddling or winging. Usually that is more visible at the trot though.
This being slightly out on diagonal legs might be the reason for his legs being appearing all over the place.
I do not have the capability to play a video in slow motion. I am curious which lead is on when he starts to lean in.
Again, and this is just my opinion, I do not see this as a serious issue.
Will be very interested in your impressions if you watch the sale video again. LOL, you sir have studied the strides of hundreds, maybe more of horses and have a much better eye than I do!
From all that it makes you wonder how he sold for $2.3 million with all those deficiencies.
I think his positive attributes far outweigh his couple of negative ones.
These horses do undergo a series of scans, x-rays and so forth before the sale which I am sure Coolmore went over with a fine tooth comb.
I think Davids remarked once that if Coolmore wanted a horse, the sky was the limit on what they would pay (paraphrase). Someone might have been bidding against Coolmore. Not a usual source for Mr Baffert and his clients but I can see some in that circle bidding on SL. He looked to be what BB likes.
My problem is that I am perhaps too curious about things amd always want to understand
Lynda, no need to apologize. I love your “need to understand” — especially since you know so much about horses having owned, observed, and ridden them for so many years. At some convenient point, I want to know more about your endurance mare that lived to be 32. My old physical therapist — an exceptional endurance athlete — bought an endurance horse when she couldn’t hike because of a stress fracture. Next thing I heard she was taking the mare out for 90-mile rides in the SoCal mountains. Totally freaked me out knowing how fragile thoroughbreds are.
Ms B many OTTBs go to endurance homes and do great in the competitions.
In my area there are also cross country hunt clubs with many members who ride Thoroughbreds exclusively.
Aiken is the heart of horse country in South Carolina and there several hunt clubs there.
Another sport that Thoroughbreds are ridden is competition trail classes. I did a little of that back in Virginia. It is a series of obstacles like what you might encounter on trails such as water hazards, bridges, fallen logs, a down hill etc.
I commented few days ago about the Indian (Native American) Relay races out West. They like OTTBs and travel periodically to Kentucky to purchase sprinters. There was a segment on 60 Minutes about the races a couple of weeks ago that you can watch on You Tube.
Sierra Leone is very very good horse. There are two concerns with him. His closing style and his auction price.
Granted we have seen a few closers win the KD recently with the aid of blistering 6F fractions. I don’t see that happening with this group.
The other factor is… in the history of the KD, besides Fusaichi Pegasus ($4 million +) auction price, there has not been another 7 figure auction horse that has won the KD.
I would be more concerned with the traffic issue than the auction history.
Traffic history for sure.
An example of a $2 million TWO year old— Muth, who has run all good races and his most recent is by far his best, if a horse sells for $2mil and they’ ve run under tack it’s likely going to be a good horse ..
Just curious, has anyone watched video of Sierra Leone going through the sales ring at the Fasig-Tipton 2022 Saratoga Select Yearling Sale?
Yes, watched it yesterday. It was great. I will be metioning it on Monday.
I am looking forward to your next column!
Just saw it. Wow what a specimen. Beautiful colt. Love the neck and head. Such much grace and calmness in the ring.
One of the bests I’ve seen.
I might consider Honor Marie as my Derby day longshot, though I already have Catching Freedom & Stronghold in future bets. One thing that concerns me about HM is the effect of Derby mania on a relatively inexperienced trainer. Trainers have a lot to deal with in the weeks preceding the Derby. Every move is scrutinized, members of the media are continually calling them, texting them, and coming by their stables. The pressure must be constant.
Whit Beckman appears to be a capable trainer with a bright future. But in his short career, he’s had just 204 starters. Honor Marie is his only graded stakes winner, and Beckman has never brought a horse to the Derby. I had to look back to 1985 to find a winning Derby trainer who had a similar lack of experience in training thoroughbreds (Cam Gambolati).
I’m interested in hearing from Steve and followers about this concern.
Winston, Google Trainer Magazine. Has interesting article on D. Whitworth Beckman from February 2024.
Nice profile. Thanks, Lynda.
He was an assistant for many years for Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown and accompanied Super Saver to Churchill Downs. That might have helped give hmi experience.
As the saying goes…It couldn’t hurt!
We need a like button.
Do we have a Thoro yet on Dornoch for his Blue Grass performance? Curious about this, thanks.
I think it’s in the 5.75 ballpark
He got a 6 1/4, following a 6 1/2, a 6, and a 6. So he has not improved at all.
Still don’t understand why they rated him in the Bluegrass.
In the FOY he had the lead and moderate fractions at best.
Not many good vibes
GL
Steve, have full brothers ever won the Derby? I have to admit, I was a fan of that being possible.
My current take on Dornoch is that dreams really do come to the Derby trail to lie on the floor like deflated balloons. However, when it comes to horses, am always willing to eat crow – provided it is prepared properly! 😉
I like Catching Freedom. His workouts as a 2 year old at Churchill were solid and he has Unbridled breeding on both sides. He broke his maiden at CD and has never run less than a mile. You get one of the best 1 1/4 mile jockeys with Prat. He really seems to love that track.
I do as well. Closing on slow fractions on that track is not something that is done. He did it and I was very impressed because of how wide he did it too. Very much in the mix. We have a slew of very talented deep closers and only one of them needs to get ” the trip” to get the roses. This guy is dangerous.
This is a great looking colt, and there’s nothing like being at home. He is also very game, and he’s *almost* been the distance. He looks really rideable, especially with so many in this crop that look really green.
And now the part that will make you hate me… I have questions. I thought the gallop out of the LA Derby was very awkward. He was quickly guided toward the outside rail (and troublemaking Antiquarian nearly collided with him as he did so), and stopped in short order. Some people worried that they saw lameness, I just saw tired/goofy/baby-ness in some deep going. But Prat really didn’t want him going any further (further? farther? whatever… he said don’t run anymore, pony). Was that because he felt something? Was the colt that gassed? Just how this colt is trained and ridden, and maybe even how he has to be stopped? Instructions not to let him overdo it? Someone here may have a great explanation, and I may be too deep into pick-these-horses-apart mode.
I hope I read too much into this, and this lovely guy runs well, stays safe and sound, and you win a bundle if you bet him!
In that there has been some interest in T O Password, I took some time this afternoon to research the colt on the Japanese database. I apologize in advance for possibly misspelling some of the Japanese names and not correctly converting yen to dollars and inadvertently stepping on someone else’s posts. If anyone notices an error(s), please let me know so that I can correct.
Hope this information is useful.
T O Password was foaled on May 20, 2031.
He is by Capano Rickey out of T O Rachel (King Kamehameha).
His owner is Tomoya Ozasa. I do not know much about Mr Ozasa other than he is involved in the music industry in Japan and he named the colt after the J Pop music group.
His record is 2: 2-0-0.The colt won his first race which was also his debut race on January 06, 2024. His second race was the Fukuryu Stakes on March 23 which qualified him for a gate in the Kentucky Derby. Both races were 1800 meters. Finish time for the Fukuryu race was 1:54.1. Weather conditions was snow.
T O Rachel is also owned by Mr Ozasa. Her race record was 28: 3-2-4. Most of races were at 7 furlongs and she raced on the JRA circuit. She has produced three other foals, one each by Black Tide, Daiwa Major and Majestic Warrior. 2 of the 3 are still racing. All 3 have raced exclusively on the NAR circuit at the shorter distances and with very limited success.
T O Password is inbred 9.38% to Mr Prospector and 9.38% to Nureyev.
Copano Rickey is Gold Allure (by Sunday Silence) out of Copano Nikita (Timber Country).
Copano Rickey has sired 509 progeny who have 78 wins on the JRA circuit (0 graded stakes).
His race record is 33: 16-3-3 and Y686 million in winnings on NAR circuit and Y308 on JRA circuit. If I did the conversion correctly, total earnings in US dollars is 6.5 million in today’s dollar..
Copano Rickey raced from 2012 to 2017 and won multiple grade one and graded stakes races at distances from 1600 to 2000 meters on dirt.
He was named JRA Best Dirt Horse in 2015.
Horses of note in T O Psssword’s pedigree through the first 5 generations are Sunday Silence, Nureyev and Northern Dancer in his sire line and Mr Prospector, Nureyev, Alydar and Clever Trick in his dam line.
King Kamehameha has sired 1854 progeny with 2,222 wins, 29 GR 1 JRA winners and 143 GS winners..
His race record 8: 7-0-1 on the JRA circuit with total earnings of Y 429 million (US Dollars, 2.8 million). He raced and won at distances from 1600 to 2400 meters and won the Japanese Derby in 2004
HA,see one already, foal date is 2021 not 2031
A few weeks ago I wrote about a maiden winner to watch named Native Land. Yeserday he came back and outgamed two 9-5 shots trained by Pletcher and Cox at Keeeland overcoming a tough trip. Keep an eye on this guy., trained by Riley Mott,
I remember that he ran a nice race in Common Defense’s maiden win. I also remembered when you wrote about him, but I unfortunately wasn’t watching yesterday or I would have put a few bucks on him. Nice call Steve!
Hi Steve
I’m looking forward to those Thoro-Graph numbers on the winners of the Wood, Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby.
Thanks, Steve.
Here’s my guess as what they might be (ballpark) based on how TG correlates with Beyer, Bris and Equibase
Sierra Leone = 1.75
Resilience = 4
Stronghold = 4.5
Excellent analysis, Jim. You pegged all three very close to the actual results.
Thanks Ms Blacktype, I just have a conversion chart that I use. Sometimes it’s right on the money after I adjust for estimated ground loss. Other times it’s really not that close and I haven’t yet figured out why. I think I over estimated ground loss for Stronghold by 1 path on each turn or else these 3 would have looked real good. Now, I’m looking forward to seeing what these numbers might portend for each horse moving forward from Mr. Haskin and others who are more familiar with patterns etc.
I was going to devote the next Rankings to analyzing all the Thoro-Graph numbers, but here ya go — Resilience “4” — Stronghold “5 1/2” — Sierra Leone “1 1/2”
Thanks Steve! I really look forward to that analysis. It’s just a number until you (or somebody who uses them regularly) puts the numbers into context. There is an art to using figs (whichever one prefers) and that’s I’m only a novice and probably always will be. I’m not too bad with the analytics myself but still all I have is a number. Anyway, thanks again!
Steve:
Do you have the TG number for Just a Touch?
Thanks!
2 1/2 for third straIght time
Thanks very much! Looking forward to the column!
Interesting. Normally, I would interpret that as a sign that Just a Touch isn’t getting any better. But in his case, he was trying something new in each race. If he catches a fast track in the Derby, it will be his 2nd try over a surface like that and his 2nd try at 2 turns. He’ll be on equal terms with his foes on Derby Day as they all try a mile and a quarter for the first time. I think that he can move forward in a big way. Or react to being subjected to too much too fast. Mixed feelings. I’m watching three horses and will choose the one that I feel best about on May 4th. I will box those 3 horses in a $5 exacta box($30) no matter what if all 3 start. I look forward to Mr. Haskin’s analysis of those numbers. Steve Haskin is one of the sharpest guys out there and has been for many years. A voice of reason.
I might even box Steve Haskin’s top four in exacta and trifecta boxes. The strategy being to beat horses like Dornoch and Forever Young. Both should take money. Once you get passed Mr. Haskin’s top 6, the odds will get big.
past
Thanks for those TG numbers, Steve. It appears Resilience has improved significantly and is no longer stuck on 7 1/2.
It looks like my only two future wagers, Catching Freedom and Stronghold in Pool 5, don’t stack up well with Thoro-Graph, although they sure did look great in their final preps. I’m comforted that Rich Strike, Mine That Bird, and Giacomo won the Derby in spite of high T-G numbers. I’ll be searching for a different Derby day bet, also. Honor Marie or Just a Touch might be the ticket – but one of them may be the bet-down starter.
Which colt should be considered the best of the crop?
I have been making the rounds on YouTube and there is only one horse assigned this status. He is likely to be the post time favorite for the KD.
I tend to view thing from a very broad perspective. For example. Was the racing public robbed of one of the best KD in recent times as a result of injuries and a particular extended suspension?
Parchment Party (undefeated) in his 2nd start blew by the LA Derby winner Catching Freedom as if he were tied to a pole. He has been long of the trail.
Knightsbridge (undefeated) recently returned from a setback to win an 8F AOC pulling a bus. One can only think about what could have been if not for his set back.
Nysos (undefeated) wouldn’t have made the KD field even if his trainer was not suspended as he also suffered a setback.
The colts above have never suffered defeat and were impressive in all their wins. Therefore, when the accolade of special and best of the crop is being assigned. Care must be taken to note that to be the best of the crop, it requires the designate to beat the best of the crop when all are fit and well.
Curlin was the best of the 2007 crop. He defeated Street Sense and Hard Spun more times than both defeated him.
There was measurable way to determine who was the best of the 2007 crop, that didn’t involve overaction to fast times and high Beyers in alternate races.
I like Maymun…..the horse who has put together the best races is Fierceness, we shall see if he can do it in The Derby —he won’t have Bob’s horses to amp up the early pace …I think Fierceness would be tough to beat with or without Bob’s horses….
Hi there, CP. It’s not the fault of the healthy and winning colts that others aren’t racing against them. The “best” will be revealed in due time.
I think it is way to early to name or even think about the best of the 3 year old racing crop.
Did I misunderstand your comment?
The final field has not been set for the Derby, that is dependent on the results of the Lexington that could change the final field especially considering the bubble is at the moment 40 points. TOP has the number 20 slot reserved.
Anything can happen between now and the Derby and usually does…scratches, withdrawals, HISA (Forte last year).
The court still has to rule on CDI’s request to toss out Zedan’s injunction. If the court decides against CDI, the injunction request will need to be decided. Should that go in Zedan’s favor possibly 2 of Baffert’s trainees will be in. Another shake-up in the points.
Not all 3 year olds are pointed to the Derby or Triple Crown races.
Lots of talent out there just now starting to bubble up (Steve introduced us to one, Native Land) and lots more racing to come.
Before the running of the Blue Grass stakes Chad Brown instructed jockey Tyler G to keep Sierra Leone running “straight”.
One of the most common conformation faults in all horse breeds is either toeing out or toeing in, usually found in the front legs though it can occur in the hind legs. It can appear in both front legs OR both hind legs OR just in one front leg OR one hind leg OR in all 4 legs. Toeing in is also called being pigeon toed and toeing out is also referred to as being splayed-footed. There are also degrees of the fault from slight to severe.
Basically toeing in or out is the result of the bone being crooked though it can appear in a base wide horse or in a base narrow horse. The conditions are considered to be congenital meaning a deformity present from birth.
This conformation fault results in a deviation of the forward and straight line movement of the horse referred to as paddling if the deviation is towards the center or inward or winging if the deviation is to the outside. Paddling is also called dishing. The two terms, paddling and winging, are often used interchangeably.
The winging fault can be very pronounced at birth and remedies can be surgical intervention to straighten the crooked bone or wearing braces.
A highly experienced farrier can somewhat modify the condition with hoof trimming and horseshoes.
Horses, being the adaptable creatures they are, usually adjust to slight to moderate winging movement if left to their own devices. Paddling however is a more serious condition and results in interference of one leg striking the other leg.
In general winging is not that noticeable the faster the horse goes (most noticeable at the trot). It does however result in a horse leaning in or lugging in during a race.
Sierra Leone wings out on the left fore, hence he leans or lugs in slightly during the race. Hence Chad Brown’s instructions to keep him straight and acknowledged that Sierra Leone leaned in.
Disclosure: My once in a lifetime heart horse, an Appaloosa, Quarter Horse cross mare who lived to age 34 toed in slightly on her right foreleg. It never interfered with her performance as a primarily rustic, rugged mountain terrain distance trail horse. Her legs were as solid and sound on the day she died as when she was a young mare. She never had an injury and never developed arthritis. The only thing my farriers did over the years was to keep the right side of her hoof trimmed regularly because of the wear and tear on the left side of her hoof.
Lynda,
It’s highly unlikely that Sierra Leone either toe in or toe out. That conformation defect would be visible during the litany of examinations conducted by interested parties and their vets.
I am probably the first in this forum to highlight that Sierra Leone paddles. I observed his paddling gait after several reviews of head on of the Remsen in which I wagered the colt heavily.
A physical examination and a conformation evaluation will not reveal that a horse will paddle. If that was possible, Sierra Leone wouldn’t have fetched $2.3M
It is my theory that he lugs in because of the discomfort he experiences with his stride mechanics. But I am just a layman.
Please stick to one name
I am not sure what happened. I certainly didn’t change my ID.
Gremlins!
It’s unfortunate that here was a rush to assume I changed my name. Why would my name to a letter of the alphabet? That would be weird.
I can only theorize that the new name was defaulted in by the system when a correction was made to my email address.
EDIT:
It’s unfortunate that here was a rush to assume I changed my name. Why would I change my name to a letter of the alphabet? That would be weird.
At least it wasn’t “X” !!! That’s already been taken !!!
LOL
What the h?……
h, before continuing patting yourself on the back,realise you’re not first to mention SL paddle on here.
OK! I am sure you know the meaning of probably. The use of the word clearly indicates I was not definitive about my claim.
Point taken!
That is very interesting, Lynda. You got me watching SL’s races with an eye on his “deviation.” Thanks!
Winston,
If you watch SL’s races for the deviation in his stride please keep in mind one of the best racehorses in the past decade who was recently inducted in the Racing Hall of Fame the first year nominated, won two legs of the Triple Crown; was first horse since Secretariat to win a graded stakes race on both dirt and turf; was awarded Vox Populi twice; NTRA Moment of the Year twice; had 8 graded stakes wins; won the Dubai World Cup; HOY twice, Older Male Horse Eclipse; Three Year Old Male Eclipse; California Bred HOY twice; California Three Year Old Male; Champion California Bred Turf Horse; and California Bred Older Male.
His record was 27 starts: 16 wins, 4 place, 1 show with total earnings of $14,750,652 and one of the most beloved race horses in the 21st centuty…all with an out turned (splay footed) right hoof.
Wow! I had no idea. If Sierra Leone can do half as well as CC, he’ll have a great career.
I do not think SL’s gait deviation (however it is defined) is anything to really work about Winston.
He is a strong, powerful colt, this has been his running style all along and whatever his issue may or may not be he has adapted to it. If it ain’t broken why fix it.
Chad is a very conscientious trainer and will work on his gate issues.
I would be curious though to know what your take is on his winging or paddling if you watch the replays.
Lynda, I watched his three stakes races. SL’s path into the stretch was practically the same in all three. I saw the paddling, but it could just be the power of suggestion. Ha! One thing is certain. A 20-horse field poses more problems for SL than the 10- to 12-horse fields that he previously faced. Will he swing so wide into the stretch that he stops at the pretzel stand? Will he plow into a horse or horses as he drifts inward at Churchill?
The instructions to the jockey from Chad Brown didn’t help. How do they correct this problem in the 3+ weeks to the Derby? Then there’s the effect of the crowd as SL nears the starting gate. He’s going to be 3-1 or lower in the Derby. Too risky.
Many are still of the opinion Rich Stike’s win in the 2022 KD was a fluke. Very few if any have given Sonny Leon the credit, he deserved for his ride.
This little-known jockey had the task of securing a victory in the world’s most demanding dirt race for 3YOs, with an entrant that finished last on debut, broke its maiden in $30,000 claiming race and was only able to finish 3rd in two KD prep on the All-Weather surface at Turfway Park.
To secure a ride in the KD on any entrant, had to be consider an opportunity of a lifetime for this little-known jockey. Sonny Leon not only embraced his opportunity, but he also put to the sword some of the best riders in America with an entrant the wagering public gave an 80/1 chance of winning.
To state that his task was overwhelming to near impossible, would be an understatement. But he and his equine partner rose to the occasion, leaving the 100,000 plus attendees and viewers around the world in a state of shock.
Sonny Leon was dealt what many would consider to be a bad hand for his debut ride in the KD. But just as any two cards can win in Poker, any entrant good enough can win the KD with good tip, a little luck and irrespective of the status of the rider handling the reins.
The bond between a regular rider and a horse should take precedence over the status of that rider in any decision-making process.
Horses make jockeys.
“Many are still of the opinion Rich Stike’s win in the 2022 KD was a fluke. Very few if any have given Sonny Leon the credit, he deserved for his ride.”
I don’t recall that many people called it a fluke. Surprising? Yes. Shocking? Yes.
Nearly everyone, however, gave credit to Sonny Leon.
OK!
Counter, great comments!
OK!
Great comments!
I called Sonny Leon’s ride on Rich Strike that day “The ride of a lifetime”.
Remember William Buick’s ride on Master Of The Seas in the Breeders Cup? The difference is that Billy Buick has 100s of rides like that in his career. Of course, Buick consistently climbs aboard very good horses.
They can never take Sonny Leon’s “Ride of a lifetime” away from him, no matter how improbable. I’ll never forget it.
Latest from Rick Dawson:
Update 4-6-24: Richie is doing very well. He’s happy & enjoying life.
Soon we will begin intermittent jogging & short galloping to his training at Margaux Farm.
Richard Budge @ Margaux will soon order up a laser treatment that will benefit Richie’s efforts to get past certain ligament issues.
If all goes well Richie could return to the track this summer.
Update 03-28-24
Richie at R&R for Ultrasound test – looking like a new penny – test results were good & he’s healing well….
hi mr. haskin-
i have respected your analyses and writing
longer than either of us would care to admit
i’m very happy i stumbled upon this site
and hopefully got sum
fresh faces
here4U
mayB we can have sum
ice cream 1 day
sharona in chicago
Thank you Sharon. I appreciate it. Do they have mint chocolate chip?
Steve, always a pleasure to read you. Must say that Fierceness’ Florida Derby effort immediately brought to my mind Bellamy Road, the 2005 Wood, and his.ind8ccessful effort at Churchill. I don’t think you can beat Fierceness with another speed horse:; my concern for SL is, as always,, the problem a deep closer presents in a twenty horse field. Just a Touch is one of several which are not impossible. He may get a plus trip behind the speed and then first run on the deep closers.
Hi Patrick, Bellamy Road had to contend with a speedball rabbit. None of the speed horses this year are going to go that fast early.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they are trying to get Frankie Dettori into the race, I hope Honor Marie retains Ben Curtis! Frankie is a forward style rider, he wants to be up near the front….terrific talent! He has Imagination, for The Preakness. .
With the Big 6 preps for the Kentucky Derby are over here is my perspective on them…
First the Florida Derby.
This was a Superior performance of a very good horse over (IMO) an inferior field. Fierceness in the Holy Bull I am going to throw out as I feel he was undertrained for that race and Pletcher realized it. He was smart on passing the FOY and made sure when he did race would be very fit. As we know he destroyed a weak field. Fierceness of all the derby entrants is probably the best breaker from the gate and if he is able to break first from the gate in the derby and get to the lead by himself by the first turn we may see another romp like Spend-A- Buck did in the 1985 Derby. If you have never seen that race it is a thing of beauty.
Now… the big if is if he doesn’t break well we still don’t know for sure if he can run behind horses. Will he get shuffled back and not be heard from again in this race??
I am not a big fan of Todd Pletcher getting a frontrunner to run 1 1/4 mile but he may have a live one in Fierceness.
Next the Arkansas Derby
We won’t talk about Muth the winner because we probably won’t know if he get in the Derby until Monday. The 2nd place finisher Just Steel ran a bang up race. He was running very strong at the end of the race he needs a good trip for the derby and smart ride by his jockey. I just hope Lukas keeps him tight for the derby and doesn’t let up on his works,. The 3rd place finisher Mystik Dan I feel had a rough race here but still should improve off of this race. Needs strong works and coming into the Derby and hopefully the jockey is patient in the race and doesn’t get caught in the pace.
3rd The Wood Memorial
Most people did not see this finish coming but when the dust cleared we know one thing Resilience is the real deal. Mott needs to keep him happy and on his toes. Not sure if he is as good as some of the others in this race (KD) but with a little luck who knows. As for the other finishers they will place somewhere in the derby but I don’t think in the top 5.
4th The Louisiana Derby
At first I felt that Catching Freedom was the Superior horse over Honor Marie but my mind maybe changing on this one as Honor Marie seems to really like Churchill Downs. I expect both will be charging at the end as the long stretch will benefit both.
Would put both in the exotics.
5th Santa Anita Derby
Read on someone else’s top derby dozen that by Stronghold going and winning the Santa Anita Derby he took the easy route getting to the Kentucky Derby. Hear that other trainers out there the SA Derby is the easy route you only have to face the Baffert, O’Neill, Mandella and Sadler 3 year olds. What a joke !!!!
Stronghold is an up and comer but is he fast enough. I like that he came off the pace and fought his way to the lead. He will improve off of this race but will it be enough. Jockey needs to show patience at CD and not get caught up in the early pace. Needs a lot of racing luck !!!
6th the Bluegrass Stakes
Sierra Leone is the fastest of all the closers in the CD. Tyler seems to fit him like a glove. If Fierceness gets tested on the front end it could make for an interesting race and I can see this horse swinging to the outside at the top of the stretch and just running them all down. Just a Touch ran a heck of a race and I wish he was running a little further back at the beginning of race instead of pushing the pace as I think he could have made the finish very interesting. F Geroux will have to show patience in the KD and give him clean trip (I know easier said than done) but Geroux rides are like a Forest Gump box of chocolates… You never know what you are going to get.
Epic Ride good horse but not good enough. Dornach , I really felt for this horse at the beginning of the race as he wanted no part of being held back. Can he make the KD a nightmare for Fierceness? Stay Tune !!!
Now the Lexington Stakes next…. Will we get a surprise here ???
One thing I forgot to mention in my post above and that has to do with Deterministic. Some other sites and maybe the author of this column suggest that because of his poor showing in the Wood that he shouldn’t even consider going on to the Kentucky Derby and my thoughts are this ….. Wait !!!. If he came out of the Wood unscathed and scoped clean if I was the owner and the trainer I would hold out until as long as I can and keep looking at the weather reports for Louisville Ky. If there is a better than 50% chance it rains that day I enter him. He ran lights out in the rain and his pedigree oozes mud loving !!!
“If Fierceness gets tested on the front end it could make for an interesting race”
Fractions:
FL Derby —– 24.06; 47.50; 1:11.31; 1:35.63; 1:48.22 – Led from gate to wire.
BCJ————-23.25; 47.02; 1:10.86; 1:35.59; 1:41.90 – Tracked leader: took over in the lane.
Avg for KD—-22.80; 46.38; 1:10.99;1:36.68; 1:59.59; 2:02.49
Average cited is for last 20 KDs.
In Fierceness’ KD Pep wins the first 4Fs average 47 plus which is below the below the KD average of 46.38. He appears to be on par with the 6F & 8F splits but only just.
In the last 20 renewals of the KD the first 4F has only run in 47 plus 4 times. The pace in the 2024 KD will be 46 plus with the like of TO Password, Track Phantom, Just A Touch and Dornoch.
It will not be a case of if Fierceness is tested. But rather how he will react when tested. The likes of TO Password, Track Phantom, Just A Touch and Dornoch are no going to fold like General Partner who is now the missing leader of the BCJ.
I expect the pace in the KD to be contentious with no breathers. Something has to give, and some will crack. Fierceness hasn’t responded well when seriously confronted. Whereas Sierra Leone has displayed all sorts of antics and emerged the winner.
I thought of Spend A Bunch when I saw the Florida Derby….but Spend A Buck ran faster splits…. Fierceness ran 1:11 and change, I remember Spend A Buck as having really run them off their feet, and he kept going, Fierceness can go moderately fast and draw off ….and perhaps that’s all he will need. ..
Yes, Matthew. Spend A Buck’s derby win was perhaps the most impressive I’ve ever seen. His 6f time was the fastest in the Derby to that time. His 8f time is still the fastest. Then he finished with the third fastest final time to that date. Absolutely amazing. His speed was evident in his final prep, the 9f Garden State Stakes, where he ran the first 4f and 6f one tick faster than in the Derby.
Stronghold beat a pretty good Bob colt…..
From 2013 to 2018 the post time favorites won the KD i.e., Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Always Dreaming and Justify.
Even the wildest imagination could not have been used to forecast what would have unfolded in the succeeding 5 years.
2023 – Mage 15/1 – Three previous starts; No Derby Prep win; sole win – MSW
2022 – Rich Strike 80/1 – No Derby Prep win; sole win- MC
2021 – Medina Spirit 12/1 – Disqualified; Trainer banned for 2years.
2020 – Authentic 9/1 – KD Rescheduled The law shortest post time favorite ever (2nd) 2019 – Country House 65/1 – No Derby Prep win; sole win- MSW; First past the post Maximum Security disqualified; Tainer in Prison
The big question as the 2024 Kentucky Derby approaches is. Has the cycle of longshot winners run its course?
It appears the results of the last five years have just been dismissed. There seems to be consensus that the likely winner will be either Fierceness or Sierra Leone. But is it wise to assume the cycle of unexpected results is over?
What could the KD Gods have in store for 2024?
Japan is likely to be represented by two undefeated entrants. Without any research I consider it safe to conclude that’s unprecedented for foreign based entrants from a single country. Both are sired by grandsons of 1989 KD winner Sunday Silence. But one has a more intriguing dam line.
If the KD Gods answered the prayers of the connections of Rich Strike and facilitated an 11th Hour entry. I see no reason why the KD Gods wouldn’t choose to reward Japan for its excellence in major international races over the last 5 years, with a 1st & 2nd place finish in the 2024 KD. I know, I should change my ID to Counter Crazy for the aforementioned hypothesis. But is it as crazy as it reads?
Forever Young is the #1 choice of many. He will be the only likely entrant that has won races in 3 different countries. He is also the only likely entrant that has made 4 starts at 9F and longer. That makes his resume superior to any of his likely American opponents.
T O Password in a known unknown and possibly an unknown, unknown. His pedigree is more attune to dirt racing than that of Forever Young. He also possesses superior tactical speed, and his dam sire was a turf monster over 2000 & 2400 meters. He therefore should possess the requisite stamina to carry his speed effectively over 10F.
The son of Copano Rickey, is a big May 20th foal who will be challenging history with only two career starts. His first start was over 9F which he won gate to wire comfortably. His 2nd start 77 days later was in stakes over the same distance which he won by a NK with similar trip.
He covers ground effortlessly and his quick stride turnover rate accounts for his high cruising speed. He also appears to possess good acceleration out of his cruising speed. These attributes should allow him to be forwardly placed in the KD.
This very interesting unknown will leave the gates with $100 from KD chest wagered in KDFP #6. It is my hope that he will continue the cycle of unexpected/shocking KD results.
Dreams are free!
You omitted Nyquist in the list of successive favorites.
Despite having to maneuver through your obstacle course of typographical errors, I take it that you wrote about Tiz the Law being the shortest-price Derby favorite “ever.” Sorry, but seven Derby favorites were lower in odds than Tiz the Law. However, he was the shortest price EVER for a winner of a Derby in September.
If there’s anyone else but you who thinks the big question of this Derby is whether the cycle of longshot winners runs its course, I’d like to hear from him or her.
Forever Young has had three races at 9f or longer, not four as you claimed. He has contested as many 9f+ races as Sierra Leone and Society Man.
You correctly described T O Password’s two races as gate-to-wire victories. But you also wrote that he “possesses superior tactical speed.” What was tactical about his speed in the two races? About his two races: the first was restricted to debuting 3-year-olds. In his second race, he opened a clear lead in the stretch, only to be nearly beaten at the wire by two fast-closing colts. One of those was 146-1.
Edit: “….for a favorite of a Derby in September.”
Winston, the runner up to Password started on turf with little success then switched to dirt. Since switching to dirt he has alternated between 2 wins and 2 shows.
He came on fast in the race in the stretch and it looked like Password held on by a nose or a head. One more leaping I think he would have won.
The only horse I recognized in the race was sired by California Chrome and finished 4th.
Hi, Lynda. TOP’s class and ability compared to all of the others are nearly impossible to gauge. At least, for Forever Young, we can look at Book’em Danno and Pandagate — both good but second-level talent.
If Just a Touch is able to win the Derby in just his 4th start, he would become the 3rd horse in just 7 years to pull that off. Mage and Justify being the others. In my opinion, a disturbing trend where less racing is better. However, if I end up on the son of Justify in a smidge over 3 weeks, I’ll be all for it. BTW, there are two other possible starters that will also be making just their 4th starts. As an old guy, I can only hope that this is just a cyclical thing and that we will again get to see horses running more often. Realistically, not very likely with these horses being worth so much money as stallions.
The Derby will be FY’s 6th start. His record is currently 5: 5-0-0.
The Japanese horses are started in training later as a 2 year old than in the United States.
Tommy/Lynda-with all due respect- are you two on the same page? Are we talking about Just A Touch or Forever Young? I’m reading with interest about what each of have to say with your perspectives and conclusions. Please tell me more. Thanks
You are correct John, I replied in error about Forever Young to Tommy’s post.
Thank you for pointing this out to me.
I did write a comment below to Bill S below about Forever Young you might be interested in.
There as instances in which less equates to more.
Oh so true!
I think The Wine Steward is going to put an end to some hopes and dreams in the Lexington. It’s too bad they couldn’t get him going sooner this year, he should fire after the layoff.
I was surprised to see him made the morning line favorite(5-2) coming off the layoff.
So in today’s DRF:
I’m rather surprised about Honor Marie. For whatever reason Beckman changed jocks for LA Derby, it worked. I just assumed Curtis would ride him in the Derby..
“The trainers of Honor Marie, Society Man, and Catalytic said they have not firmed up jockeys yet but did not rule out using the ones who rode them in their last starts. Ben Curtis rode Honor Marie to a second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby. Luis Rivera Jr. rode Society Man to a runner-up finish in the Wood. Julien Leparoux rode Catalytic to a second in the Florida Derby”
Trainers with a serious Derby contender dont like to commit this early in case one of the big name riders come free. And they know theyre not in danger of losing the rider they do have. Beckman acknowledges that Curtis rode a geat race, but you have to wait to see if you can get an experienced jockey who has ridden in the Derby before. But they do like Curtis.
Thanks, Steve! That makes sense – I wish I had thought of that before, lol.
Betsy even one of the ” Best ” rider’s in the world can make mistakes in this race. If he was still around you could have asked Bill Shoemaker about that.
I’m aware if that particular mistake, lol…but I’m not sure what your point is…
Betsy I love Ben Curtis on this horse! He’s an adept deep closing rider! He fits the horse! My theory on first time Derby mounts is the younger the better, young nerves are the best, in my opinion ….a pro golfer said that, too….I asked him why at around 45…golfers stop winning, he said it’s nerves….I loved that prep it’s his third start of his firm cycle, and it’s his favorite track…
Matt, I am with you on that !!!
Matt, Ben has done nothing wrong ! The only thought that would make me nervous is his lack of experience at CD. But, it’s similar to the FG in that it has a very long stretch…so that helps
I agree – HM nice has the needed base. Not only did he need the Risen Star, his last workout before was aborted
His last work was very good. I think he’ll acquit himself well!
I have had the honor of watching Forever Young in the Saudi cup, and the Dubai derby. As you watch him in the walking circle, He looks a touch smaller than you would expect. But he just glides across both race tracks and has a tremendous heart. In the Dubai derby he ran 4 to 6 wide the entire race and yet looked strong down the stretch breaking from gate 13. The trainer, incredibly successful Mr. Yahagi, spoke very highly of him before both races and said the longer the distance the better he will run. He spoken in a humble manner, but you could tell , he loves this horse. It will be interesting to see when he arrives on April 10 and has a chance to work out, How he likes the track and how he reacts. The jockey seems to want to rate him about fourth through sixth or seventh, and if he’s got a good post position and can get in that position , he may be very difficult to beat. From my experience of 45 years of horse racing, this is the horse that I think wins the derby and goes on to have a spectacular 2024.
Thank you for your post, Bill. I’ve been attracted to Forever Young since Week 1 when Steve mentioned him in Knocking on the Door. I have not seen him in person, but, I have watched his last three races and have been impressed with his heart and turn of foot. His great grandsire is Sunday Silence, who happens to be my favorite horse of all time. Sunday Silence also possessed a big heart and passed it on down to Deep Impact, Real Steel and now, Forever Young.
I am encouraged by the confidence that his trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, has in his horse. You can tell that he really loves Forever Young and he and his staff are paying attention to every detail in keeping him fit and getting him safely to Churchill Downs in the best condition. Did you say that he’s arriving at Churchill today? That would be great. After he’s been in quarantine for a couple of days, then we’ll be able to see him take to the track for some exercise and works. Getting pumped up; just 24 days and counting.
Thanks again, Bill. Your post made my day.
Is T O Password chopped liver? Forever Young and TO Password are both progenies of grandsons of Sunday Silence.
Why would Sunday Silence big heart be passed down through a chain involving his son, grandson to only one great grandson i.e., Forever Young.
Why was the undefeated great grandson, T O Password deemed unworthy to inherit said big heart?
T O Password has displayed more tactical speed, better stride mechanics for dirt and has monster turf router as a dam sire. His grand damsire Kingmambo is a far better sire than A P Indy the grand dam sire of Forever Young.
One colt is more accomplished than the other. However, the KD is a race in which the most accomplished have often been defeated by the lesser accomplished when least expected.
Watch T O Password’s last race. Another stride, and he was going to be caught. He’s not the one for me, thank you.
Come on Dewey,
T O Password was returning from 77 days between start and was making his 2nd start and stakes debut with 126lbs over 9F. The fact that he got tired late is understandable.
Sierra Leone finished 2nd by NK in his stakes debut over 9F with 118lbs with 27 days between starts. That 8lbs and 50 days less.
Fierceness finished 2nd to last by 20L in his stakes debut over 8F with 122lbs with 42 days between starts. That 4lbs and 35 days less.
Just A Touch finished 2nd in his stakes debut over 8F with 118lbs with 38 days between starts. That 8lbs and 39 days less.
To just highlight the NK margin of victory for T O Password and ignore certain pertinent fact, bring into question the substantiveness of your reply.
Okay, Counter Point, I’ll keep an open mind on T O Password and wait until he arrives at Churchill to see how he adapts to the track. You do bring up some valid points, but I will trust my eyes when observing the workouts.
Mr. Point, what is your assessment of TOP’s two races? What was the quality level of the field in the stakes race? Would you say that it’s better than the level in the U.S. preps, or worse, or equal? If you have an idea, how did you come to it? Do you know what the fractions were in the race? Slow, moderate, fast? Is there a speed rating that we can use to compare with his expected Derby opponents?
My point, Mr. Point, is that we really don’t know much of anything about this historically (i.e., Derby history) inexperienced colt from Japan.
You are welcome Dewey. After watching him live and seeing the American horses on TV, I think he has an excellent chance and with a little luck, he will be charging down the stretch and he does have a great heart. Should make for a fun race.
Thank you Bill for your first hand observatons. We cant wait for him to arrive and get on the track.As I wrote, that is the last part of the puzzle. I have had him as high as No. 3 and he could wind up back there if he travels well.
Thank you for the info Bill, great post!
Bill S, according to the netkeiba data base Forever Young weighed in at 1100 pounds for the UAE Derby. I do not know his height but in watching his arrival in Meyden and his races his croup seems to be up which is indicative of a growth spurt. He also looks to be a very long legged colt.
His weight has maintained steady around 1100 pounds. Like most Japanese runners he us beautifully conditioned. For his first races in 2023 he was given a rating of 113 under the Japanese system which is the highest rating given a two year old since they started rating the runners.
You can go to netkeiba to get additional information on all the Japanese racehorses that includes finished time, position on bends, track and weather conditions, jockey weight, etc and pedigree, siblings, inbreeding as a percentage, photos etc.
The UAE Derby win was bittersweet for his trainer, Mr Yahagi, because his father passed away that same day.
Thanks Lynda. My leaning for awhile was for a horse from another country to win the Kentucky Derby (with all of the distractions, diversions and derangement) with Japan being the choice . My thinking was as backwards as can be…’just create the blank space and then fill in the space later’.
I believe Forever Young does fill in that space.
He could become a horse of a generation, i.e. on both sides of the Pacific Ocean.
John, in my opinion Forever Young probably has the best chance of winning the Derby than his predecessors.
His pedigree is much more diversified and he is more consistent than the others.
He comes across as wanting the longer distance in the Derby and wants the win.
A cut above I think over others who have tried.
Mr Yahagi is the Bob Baffert of Japanese trainers and his record and that of his trainees in International competition speaks for itself.
The pieces are all there, just needs a nod from the racing gods and a smile from lady luck.
Thanks for your encouraging post, Lynda. As a fan of Forever Young, I got a double boost in spirit when I read the post of Bill S. and now you. Your opinion is highly valued and I especially appreciate the detail that you provide in backing up your thoughts.
Okay, now let’s see, where did I put that lucky horseshoe?
Thank you Dewey.
I laughed when I read the last line.
I too found Bill’s post encouraging.
Thanks for your kind words. I would guess if Forever Young wins the Derby he would skip the Preakness and run in the Belmont. Thoughts?
Great question about Forever Young winning the Derby and his next race.
Lani did not win Derby, ran in the Preakness and then took 3rd in Belmont.
My guess is he might at least run in the Belmont.
Derby trivia to pass the time
*Since the inception of the Breeders’ Cup, there have been eight BC Juvenile winners who went into the Kentucky Derby with a win in their last prep. Only one of the eight won the Derby: Nyquist, the 2-1 favorite. Five of the eight were favorites.
*In the 2010s, eight derbies were won by a runner that was undefeated in at least two starts as a 3-year-old (1970s – 3; 1980s – 2; 1990s – 0; 2000s – 4). So far this decade, six such Derby entries have failed to win; only one, Essential Quality, was a Derby favorite.
*Since 2000, 10 Derby entries were post-time favorites at odds of less than 3-1. Six of the 10 won the Derby.
*The only Derby winners since 2000 that earned a Brisnet Late Pace rating of less than 95 in the final prep were Mine That Bird (79) and Medina Spirit (86).
*In the past three derbies, the winner did not win either of the last two preps. From 2011 through 2019, all Derby winners won their final two preps.
*Since 2000, 29 Derby entries (in 17 derbies) won their final prep by at least three lengths. Seven of those runners won the Derby; Big Brown was the first in 2008. All but one of the seven were Derby favorites, that being Maximum Security (9-2 second choice). Five losing Derby favorites won their final preps by three or more lengths, the last being Angel of Empire in 2023.
*There have been seven Derby runners since 2011 that went off at odds at least 50% lower than their morning lines. The best finish was 5th by My Boy Jack in 2015.
*Since 2000, eight post-time favorites were not the morning-line favorites. All eight lost the Derby. (In 2009, the ML favorite was scratched, so both Dunkirk & Pioneerof the Nile became the ML favorites.)
*Todd Pletcher’s Derby win record is well-known. He’s had 64 starters in 22 derbies, with two wins. What may be not so well known is that only one of the 64 starters was a Derby post-time favorite. That favorite was the 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming.
NOTE: The September 2020 Derby was not used in the trivia research. Also for statistical purposes, the first-place Derby finishers in 2019 and 2021 were considered winners.
Thanks Winston. That was great and very informative.
My pleasure, Steve. I have lots of spare time!
Winston, your post has so much mind-blogging data — all of it good — I took a screen shot, which I will label and keep on my desktop for reference.
Wow! I’m honored, Ms Blacktype.
Before someone else corrects me, I will do it myself. The second-from-last piece of trivia should read “Since 2000, eight morning line Derby favorites were not the post-time favorites…”
Very interesting and certainly food for thought for peeps like me who have limited handicapping skills. Thank you for sharing.
You’re welcome, Lynda. And thank you. But I’d say it was more like snack food for thought. 😉
Winston, which snacks?
Nuts and fresh fruit.
Iam surprised you didn’t include Bob Baffert’s 9 post time favorites with only two winners. Without research that is likely to be a record to be represented by so many post time favorites.
You’re easily surprised.
Not really. You highlighted a lot of history.
You highlighted a lot of history.
Not really.
If Fierceness brings his a game and has no issues in the first 1/4 mile, he most likely wins. A win bet is good if the odds allow.
I only see Sierra Leone and Forever Young as challengers. They do not run bad races.
Catching Freedom is close and could improve.
I believe that will be my Trifecta and Superfecta.
Forever Young will be my big bet in WPS as I feel his odds will be good and he is the most consistent horse that actually looks like distance will be no problem.
I too, was baffled and still am baffled as to why Maymun did not run and as to why Nysos has been resting.
Baffert is to have reported today that Nysos is not going to run in the Preakness but also said that he will probably resume training in a couple of weeks.
John , thanks for that update on Nysos…. I would presume he will be pointed for the Haskell with maybe an allowance race before that. Was there any news on Maymun?
Maymun ‘s last published work was April 2nd, he’s due for a work …this weekend rains are predicted so I’m guessing he’ll work before Saturday. …he had a string of four six furlong works, followed by the Apr 2nd five furlongs….
Thanks Matt, Saw his works previously just hope we see another soon.
Eric, I agree about Fierceness and his start. But he’s likely to be around 3-1. I don’t think that’s a good value, as there’s a handful of other contenders that have a pretty decent shot at winning. About Forever Young…he seems to be solidly at 8-1 in sportsbook betting. That is WAY too low to be a good value in my humble opinion.
Your comments this week finally have me excited for the Derby! I’ve been a little ho-hum about it all winter, but now looking forward to watching this crop battle it out.
Glad I could help ignite the flame. Lol
Hey Steve
In Week 11, you mentioned that Resilience ran three straight 7 1/2 Thoro-Graph numbers.
Have you received his TG number for his Wood Memorial win, if so, I’m hopeful you’ll post that number. His Beyer number went from an 85 to 90, so it appears he’s getting faster.
In addition, it’s interesting to note that his Equibase Speed figures have increased in every subsequent race, (71-80-83-91-93-103).
That said, I believe his most recent Thoro-Graph number will be indicative of his improvement relative to speed.
Thanks, Steve
They come out usually on Wednesday. Yes I will post it and others, with the Rankings either skipping next week or coming out later in the week in modified form.
Mr. Haskin, share your points on Stronghold. Talented,but wondering how far he will go. Do you think better suited for Preakness?
I would hate to pass the Derby because of a broodmare sire and speed overload in female family, especially when the horse is tough and talented. But I think he does fit better in the Pr:eakness. In the past they would run in both but they dont anymore. I wouldnt be surpised if he placed in the Derby but Im not sure hes good enough to win.
Thanks Mr Haskin for your take on Stronghold.
Many thanks Steve, I’ll be looking forward to those numbers. Your diligent work is much appreciated.
I expect a significant improvement in Resilience’s TG number. This colt checks a lot of boxes, IMO. By hot sire, Into Mischief, out of a Smart Strike mare, his 2nd dam, Tranquility Lake was a graded router, earning over $1.6 million in career earnings. There are no less than six Reine-de-Course mares in his first four generations, on his dam side. In addition, he’s a Pam and Martin Wygod homebred. There’s been a significant number of homebred colts that have won the Kentucky Derby.
Hopefully, William Mott will select a top rider to replace Johnny V.
Hey Bill, I counted 14 or 15 in the first five generations. That’s pretty stout!
Thanks for pointing that out, Ms Blacktype.
I didn’t go back that far, (5th generation). Your description as “pretty stout” is spot on. Did you consider Resilience as a top Derby contender, or just a pretender?
Thanks.
Ms Blacktype
I re-checked Resilience’s pedigree, looking for Reines-De-Course mares, through 5 generations. on his dam side. I found ten mares that fit that description.
3rd generation: Classy ‘N Smart, Winter Love.
4th generation: Gold Digger, No Class, Glorious Song, Cold Hearted.
5th generation: Ballade, Classy Quillo, Smartaire, Raise You.
Hey Bill! I included mares on the top side as well, which is why I had more. They include Leslie’s Lady (2nd), Last Bird and Terlingua (4th) and Bebopper and Won’t Tell You (5th). All as noted on Pedigree Query.
As to your other question, Bill, I’d say after Rich Strike EVERY horse in the race has a chance — Resilient better than most. He has the benefit of having Steve be high on him for weeks, despite his modest racing results.
Probably TMI, Bill, but I went through and counted Reine de Course mares for the top 20 point-getters plus potential AEs. The horse with the top number counting both sides is HONOR MARIE (16). Resilience, Common Defense and Epic Ride have 14 each. (Epic Ride also has at least three double copy mares in his fifth generation). Forever Young weighs in with 11. The rest have between 3 and 8, mostly because of Mr Prospector, Smart Strike, and Harlan’s Holiday in their pedigrees.
Additionally, both RESILIENCE and COMMON DEFENSE are homebreds, one of the trends Steve has pointed out in Derby winners in the last few years.
The strong mare stamina presence in Reilience’s pedigree is amazing. This guy is going to hit the board.
Steve, many thanks for all the information you give us. What if there were a horse that Steve didn’t mention, even in Knocking on the Door, that no one else has mentioned this week, that I don’t like either, and yet has 67 points to qualify for the Derby?
The name of the horse: West Saratoga. His connections have played the points game well. As a son of the mud-loving Exaggerator, he would probably like an off track. Is he as easy a throw-out as he appears to be?
I mentioned him after the Jeff Ruby and never got to the great story behind him, saving that for the final Rankings.
This looks like a Fierceness romp to me, he’s fastest by a long way …Sierra Leone and Honor Marie coming behind, I’m betting on Honor Marie but keying Fierceness on top, the less I use underneath the more I could bet…it looks mighty chalky to me, but if you can find the longshot for third it’ll still pay, in the Derby….
I only had $153 in 1989, and bet three Sunday Silence/,Easy Goer/ trifectas and Dansil came in and it paid $5100 for my $51 trifecta —the two faves on top …
“This looks like a Fierceness romp to me”
Victory by how many lengths would be considered a romp?
Last two gate to wire winners.
War Emblem – 4 1/2L
Spend A Buck – 5 3/4
Barbaro was only 4L off the pace when he won by 6 1/2L. He was not considered the fastest horse in the field.
Mine That Bird won from 19L of the pace by 6 1/2L He was most certainly not considered the fastest entrant in the field.
Why Highlight the above?
A romp performance can be delivered by either a stalker, mid packer or a deep closer and not necessarily the fattest horse in the field.
Fierceness being the fastest horse against opponents not considered to be on his level, doesn’t equate to the colt being able to win in a romp over the best of his peers over 10F.
In case you missed it, yesterday came the news that Andy Beyer was raising Sierra Leone’s BSF from the Risen Star on February 17th from 90 to 95. I won’t go into the reasons that he gave, but he did it. Suddenly, the Chad Brown trainee doesn’t look so slow. From a 95 BSF at Fair Grounds to a 98 BSF at Keenland, Sierra Leone could have a big improvement in him on the first Saturday in May. The $2.3million Colt has now won 3 of 4 and as a son of Gun Runner should love the mile and a quarter. If Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione can just get him to run straight in the stretch, he could be the one.
To change it this long affter the race and after he runs and wins is a joke. But not funny to those who didnt bet him in the Blue Grass because his 90 Beyer in the Risen Star was too slow.
I lost faith in Beyer when the small British bred Jumron was getting 75s at Portland Meadows, then goes down to Bay Meadows and runs a 107…..same horse……second choice in the 1985 Derby ..
1995 Derby …finished 4th, after receiving a suspensory injury passing the finish line the first time ..
“Sierra Leone could have a big improvement in him on the first Saturday in May”
Couldn’t the above be applicable to every entrant or none?
Rich Strike was assigned a Equibase figure of 99 for his 3rd pace finish in the Jeff Ruby. He was assigned a 97 for his KD win. That suggested he regressed in the biggest G1 dirt race for 3YO.
In Mie That Bird’s last 3races before the KD He 12th, 2rd & 4th. He won from 19L of the pace in a romp.
They are all sitting on potential improvement on first Saturday in May
EDIT:
In Mine That Bird’s last 3 races before the KD He finished 12th, 2nd & 4th. He won the KD from 19L off the pace in a romp.
Steve, no one compares to your analysis. You engage me so much I’d rather read your analysis than watch Jeopardy! Haha! I’m writing this during Jeopardy. But it’s true- you’re soo good. Love the end of your read on Sierra Leone. Thats how I felt at the end – I think you just changed my mind…. He looks tough. Thanks for your input and I will sit tight…..
Thank you very much Daina. I appreciate that. Better than watch Jeopardy is the highest compliment one can give.
Dornoch is down to #14 on Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings. Just ahead of his half-brother and barn mate Society Man. I see plenty of people continuing to support Dornoch. But I’m guessing that he earned about a 90 BSF in the Bluegrass which would be four in a row in that same vicinity. Dornoch has leveled off. Stopped improving. No offense, but at this time, I view Dornoch as a Derby Pretender. Part of the pace? Maybe.
So, no need considering maybe just a clunker? He gets back on track. A lot of people say alot of things.
Or maybe he is better than you think and the trainer was teaching him a few things and the goal is to peak first Sat in MAY. You don’t have to win every race in order to win the derby. Gargan flat out told everyone that he was using the Bluegrass to try and teach Dornach to rate and to take some dirt in his face. I think folks are just to quick to dismiss a horse if he doesn’t win. I will use both of those Good Magics in my betting . The bloodline has already proven they get better with age.
Good comments Mark. Yes, some thinks a horse must win every race.
If Sierra Leone earned a 98 BSF in the Bluegrass, it could be fair to guess that Just a Touch earned about a 94 BSF. Not bad considering that it was only his 3rd race. His first race over a dry track. His first try around 2 turns. His first try at a mile and an eighth. A lot has been thrown at this May foal and very quickly. His first race was on January 27th. He is improving by leaps and bounds. I expect to see Brad C give him 2 workouts before the Derby. I’ll be very interested to see what kind of workouts the trainer puts into his prize trainee and how Just a Touch handles himself at Churchill. If Just a Touch can pull it off, I am going to officially bury the Curse of Apollo in my handicapping tool kit. Daddy is a Triple Crown Winner.
Hey TommyMcD: not to further inflame the Beyer haters, but Just a Touch earned a 96 Beyer in the Bluegrass. (Anyone with a drf subscription can find the figures for the three top finishes under Stakes Results & Replays, under the Results tab.)
He’s coming in a bit like Mage, with a good 2nd, to a good horse ….after getting passed by Sierra he held his stride well…..
Not to change the subject here but some people on this blog feel that all the owners of a horse that are under Bob Baffert’s care just had to change their horse to a different trainer (in this case up to 3 months). These people must think just changing a trainer is just like changing your underwear. Well I came across an article in the Paulick Report about what happen to a “Full” younger brother of the “Great” Man O’ War named ” Playfellow” . Changing a trainer isn’t as easy as you think and expect. Do a search at Paulick Report under Playfellow. It was written April 1 , 2024 called ….
Lest we forget: The Pawn Who was Playfellow
Really? Not uncommon for an owner to change barns. Not as if he didn’t have options.
Mike, you strike me as the type that would abandon your friends and family to save your own skin !!! Some of his owners have invested $$$ millions of dollars in there horses and trust has been built between owner and trainer and he has rewarded them for that trust. This year Churchill pushed the limit by asking the owners to separate their investment to 3 months and they balked because chose what is best for their horses and them But getting back to the article you obviously haven’t read it.
Obviously you’re in love with your own voice,also with one barn. Guess it’s disappointing seeing it collapse in one frame over past three years.
Mike, give your fingers a break. There’s no reasoning with the BB lot no matter which site you’re on.
For the life of me, I can’t figure out how anyone can not see the amount of young horses that do not survive that program. Currently, the top TWO in that barn are on hiatus for various unknown reasons. But hey, the owners trust the “greatest” trainer of all time even if their horses only race 3 or 4 times in their careers.
Agreed! Your comments are on point. Individual only worships one master as always.
Same ol’, same ol’ Z. Whether here or in the other numerous websites you try to get your agenda across…it is the he same old tired ad nauseam hatred of Baffert.
Yawn.
Do you ever tell the truth? Last time ANY of my comments posted on a certain site- four years ago! What about your agenda?
Same ol’ same ol’ JG. BB’s numero uno fan…. I’m certain he is very aware of your existence. Do you ever consider what really goes on in some of these barns? Or, you’re too ignorant and lazy to do some research.
Mike and Zany you two wouldn’t know the meaning of trust and loyalty if it hit you in the face. And about a horse needing a trainer change.. what happened to Mc Vay last weekend Mikie !!! Heard he is still running !!! Losers both of you !!!
$$$$$$$$
Lol
Obviously you didn’t receive memo recently regarding mod comments . BTW, where’s Prince of Monaco? Oh, right!
Please do not get personal in an ugly manner. That’s not called for.
Mr. Haskin, agree 100%. However, individual isn’t content with comments regarding Derby horses. Agenda is fueled by one subject- as always. Am aware two wrongs don’t make a right.
The subject is immaterial. Downthestrtch’s personal attacks were uncalled for.
Agreed.
Yep, this Mike guy has been doing this crap since years ago at Bloodhorse! He’s definitely a key board warrior. There’s a lot I’d like to say but won’t. Just ignore the guy.
So you and other individual have right to an opinion,but I don’t? That’s rich! My advice-if my opinions upset you, ignore them. Your welcome!
The subject is Steve’s Derby Rankings. Yet, somehow you make it about BB. The suspension, the trials, the court rejections are old news.
If you’re so concerned about your idol, you should apply for a job in his barn. Perhaps you’ll be enlightened by his masterful training.
Also, if it makes you feel smarter by calling people losers…. Have at it.
I have decided to revert back to what I did for years and pick the horse most likely to win the Kentucky Derby, the horse or horses I would like to see win, a sentimental favorite and a long shot.
This method served me well for many years until the asterik years.
There was a trend starting to develop from the initiation of the points system until 2019 whereby the Derby winner was in the top 5 or 6 positions on the leaderboard going into the Derby.
Taking advantage of this information, the winner of the Derby will probably be from this group of 6:
Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Catching Freedom, Stronghold, Resilience and Forever Young.
I am leaning towards Fierceness dependent on a good break from a good position and allowed to run his race, as you mentioned Steve, and he runs the same or similar race as he did in the FD will win.
It is not my opinion that Forever Young should ruled out from winning or placing in the top 4. He is coming into the race undefeated with a record of 5 starts and 5 wins. His pedigree has speed and stamina and he is not deeply inbred with 15.63% Mr Prospector, 9.38% Northern Dancer and 6.25% Secretariat. Things that stand out to me from his photos are his long legs, good bone and a deep chest. When racing he has one ear flicked forward and one ear flicked back and both ears pricked forward as he crosses the finish line. As with most of the Japanese horses, he is in beautiful condition and does not seem to be any worse the wear from his trip to the desert and the Japanese horses seem to travel well. Mr Yoshito is a very experienced
trainer and no doubt has learned from each race his horses have entered in America. While waiting on transportation to America, as I commented on the previous post, he has been on light duty and becoming accustomed to being ponied.
2. The horse I would like to see win: No More Time.
3. Sentimental favorites(s): Honor Marie, Stronghold
4. Longshot: Grand Mo The First
At the moment Grand Mo The First is AE and Not This Time is in at number 19. The status of both could be in jeopardy if Hades wins the Lexington or if Mr Zedan is awarded the injunction against CDI.
Potentially 2 Baffert trainees could make the gate in the Derby.
Thank you Steve for the time, effort and dedication you bring to each and every Derby Rsnking.
I was very pleased to read that Johnny V will be on Fierceness for the Derby.
On another note, White Abarrio is being pointed to the Met Mile, the Whitney and the BCC.
I like your system.
Thank you D.
I enjoy gathering as much information as I can and always enjoy reading Steve’s rankings.
While I might not comment, I read every comment from all of you.
So here are my choices, using your system. Thanks for having a designated longshot line, good idea. Probably more than one would be advisable but I have one for now, and some of my other picks are longshots that were once favorites.
Fierceness – my pick to win
Dornoch, Track Phantom – would like to see one of them win,
but would also like to see Fierceness or Sierra Leone win
Hades, No More Time – sentimental picks
Domestic Product – longshot
I hope the top four finishers in the Derby are from the above. It’s a good crop which improved in the 9 furlong preps and ran faster, as I suspected they could.
Wouldn’t that be something if Dornoch won, full brother to Mage.
Has that ever happened before?
I think it is a good crop as well.
Haven’t given up on him.
Yes, that would be big news and it would be a nice gesture if they could parade them together at a track.
Agreed!
Puca delivered a 3rd colt by Good Magic recently.
No word on who or if she will be bred for 2025.
She was given a year off between her McKenzie colt born in 2022.
Dornoch is an excellent horse in his own right. At this point in his career, he’s done far more than his Derby winning brother. Stranger things have happened, especially lately.
Lynda, what a well considered, reasonable post! I too like and respect so many of these horses, so it’s very hard to settle on just one or two as possible winners.
Still a lot of shoes to drop before May 4, but if I had to pick the BEST horse, I would say Sierra Leone (anyone else have the urge to type “Sergio Leone”? LOL). I’ve come to doubt two of my early favorites, No More Time and Catching Freedom, but I still like Dornoch. And I’d love to see Forever Young be the first Japanese horse to win the Derby. Loved your description of him.
This years Derby would have been much greater if the Baffert horses were allowed.
They would have been at least 4 who would have had a good shot.
There if there is no mishap, Fireceness holds a big edge, especially if there are 20 horses. I don’t see a suicide speed duel, even if Hades gets in (hades is not fast enough). Best betting opportunities will be the exotics.
If he draws rail the edge goes away.
A lot of closers lug inward because they haven’t yet changed leads, but Sierra Leone paddles left, and moves inward after changing leads, he may be a superior INSIDE rallier, but coming widest in the Derby…with that crowd ….he could cause problems ….
I would love to see SL rally from the inside. I think he is capable of doing it. He doesn’t seem to mind getting some dirt in his face and I he’s so shifty that he could zip in any direction.
Definitely would save some ground.
In a field of 20 horses and with most being bunched behind the leaders, the inside traffic would be bumper to bumper (LOL)
Valid observation and conclusion.
I just revisited the video of Bue Grass, and I can state that there is absolutely no way barring misfortune, that Fierceness is going to finished ahead of Sierra Leone.
Sierra Leone. is a massive colt who wasn’t even full extended in the Blue Grass. The 10F of the KD will be cake walk for this colt.
I noticed a slightly high keen action to go alone with his paddling gait. But neither appear to impact his devastating stretch runs.
I have this funny feeling the surface at CD will bring out the best out of Sierra Leone and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is forwardly place in the KD.
Enjoy your comments Counter. Many are thought provoking.
I think Dornach will rebound and they won’t try to hold hi back. He could end up being the rabbit for Society Man who helped me have a decent day last Sat. I think he is improving at the right time and i hope they keep his odds again at 100- to 1 . Sierra Leone sure looks the real deal and in my opinion should be number 1 . Fierceness on the frontend is brilliant, Fierceness facing adversity not so much.
Hey Mark! Agree regarding rebounding.
When I was at Santa Anita this past Saturday I met up with an old track friend, and talked about the time I flew my family down in 1996 to go to Disneyland, and to see Cigar run in the Big Cap—he was scratched that day….it was a warm day, we went to the huge park before the races, as we walked through the parking lot they ran race one, and a first timer won for Wayne Lukas, paying $65. …waiting for the escalator I saw Jimmy Kilroe in a wheelchair, they wanted to take cuts and I was fine with that–but Mr Kilroe insisted we go first, he said two kids were hard enough—a months later he passed….as we were seated in our four seat with table box (for $37) they were standing in tribute to Beat Pal, who had just retired, he was enormous and big muscles!…,later that day I put up my biggest wager of the day on Cavonier — he was fifth …Wayne won that race too— with Honor and Glory…..he was having a terrific day but his little filly Serena’s Song was drawn in the 14 slot and she battles for the lead, before finishing last, my wife won her $10 win bet on Mr Purple at 17-1…..
Today D Wayne Lukas is an old man, and his little filly Serena’s Song turned 32 last week ….
Meant to say Best Pal, we went to the Big park on Huntington with the toddlers .. . Serena’s Song ran in the Big Cap…
Serena’s Song retired as the richest filly ever, having won 18 graded races including 11 gr1s……Wayne ran her often, 38 starts, and she’s still kicking!
Matt,
I often see folks submit posts with statements that do not compute, and some they do not realize make no sense. I am probably as guilty as most.
A particular horse is credited with running a particular Beyer. Horse do not run Beyers those numbers are assigned and are subject to change. Sierra Leone’s Beyer for either the Blue Grass or Risen Star was recently changed.
A particular horse turns a particular age. How does deceased horse turn a particular age. Once life ends, there is no possibility of turn any age. I would have attained a certain age if not deceased.
There is also the issue of lifespan. The average lifespan of a horse is between 25 to 30 years, although it varies between breeds. Ten years from now one could state that Serena’s Song turned 42 an age significantly outside the average lifespan of a horse.
My friend told me Serena is still with us …
She is. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.
She is.
Serena’s Song was born on April 4, 1992 and just celebrated her 32nd birthday at Denali Farm who shared photos and a brief photo of her birthday treats.
Her sire Rahy also sired Mariah’ Storm who was the dam of Giant’s Causeway. She was born on April 01, 1991 and just celebrated her 33rd birthday.
Correction: brief video, not brief photo
Visited SS prior to pensioned n private showing. As for Cigar,one of my three all time favs. Saw him prevail in Mass Handicap, visited him many times at Horse Park,including two weeks prior to his passing. Before his death got posted on racing sites, received text from someone close to him.
Mike, I am somewhat envious of your visits to see the living legends!
Thanks! Nine years ago after visiting Hat Trick and others at Gainsway,told all have to do is show up.
I fail to understand the tie between Sierra Leone and Fierceness. One colt is a late drifting second away from being undefeated in 4 starts and the other has two wins from 4 starts whilst with 2 defeated by a combined 24 1/2L.
One colt has a significantly better resume with unimpeachable consistency. The other is an in and out performer from a barn with a reputation of producing explosive performers that usually go MIA shortly thereafter.
On the subject of speed. Both the 1st and 2nd fastest KDs were never recorded by a gate to wire winner. But rather by off the pace entrants.
Bodemiester was the fastest entrant in his KD. But I’ll Have Another showed up on time and from off the pace to be first for drinks. The Bob Baffert trainee enjoyed an uncontested lead. A similar scenario is expected for Fierceness with the hope of a different outcome.
Let’s move away from speed and resumes and focus on trainers. Iam of the opinion Chad Brown is a significantly better trainer than Tod Pletcher. If both have entrants equivalent in talent in a race, the advantage goes to CB who operates a much better program than TP.
Brown won the Outstanding Trainer Award in 4 consecutives despite having a significantly smaller dirt program than BB & TP. In fact, Chad Brown won the OTW in a year when BB had TC winner Justify.
Finally, how can a colt that one never knows if it will show up, be tied with one whose resume reflects it always shows up and to perform to expectation? There is no conceivable way anyone undertaking a critical analysis of the resumes and form line of both colts and arrive at a tie with speed as the only plus for one.
Hi Counter Point
While I often appreciate your research and your analysis, you unfortunately also come across as a man with an agenda to diminish certain horses and / or trainers you don’t respect. You frequently do this by offering your opinion masqueraded as fact. While you might defend yourself by suggesting you don’t know what I am talking about, you too frequently pass off your opinion as fact, skewing your argument by using only those facts that support your perspective. You never give us “the whole truth.”
There is little doubt you love thoroughbred racing. I say this based on the amount of time you must spend in your analysis of pedigrees, past performances of horses and trainers, and other trend-based research you conduct.
I am not sure if you are trying too hard to fit in or trying too hard to make us think you are wise and insightful. The fact is that I am sure you are wise and you do have insight. You just don’t seem to know when (or how) to be gracious: to your fellow posters, to horsemen you don’t like or respect; to horses you feel are overrated.
I don’t gamble and I likely know far less about each year’s crop of 3-year-olds vying for the Derby than any other poster – certainly far less than you. The reason, though, that I come here excitedly each week and look forward to the start of the Derby Rankings each January is due to the community that Steve has created. Most people here genuinely like each other. Some I expect would be very good friends if they lived near one another. True, some of us at times get on each other’s nerves. But that, perhaps more than the overwhelming harmony, speaks about how this gathering is much like a family.
As you might know, I post once every three or four weeks – only when I have something to add or an obscure horse (usually tracing to Damascus) that I like to add shine some light on.
I wish you would focus more on enjoying the community than by trying to promote yourself and your points / facts. You have a lot to offer and you make many good points. Strive not to turn people off with your style / persona. Even more, don’t take any pride or solace in annoying others – as though it were a sign of people being jealous of your smarts.
This site is a wonderful place to go. And as the theme of Cheers tells us, “Sometimes you want to go where everyone know your name” – or, at least, know your handle. For your sake (and ours) act in a way where you want people to be excited to see you have made a posting instead of people wondering who you will be skewing or skewering in your post.
You seem like a nice enough guy. Help us to more frequently see that side of you.
Glad to have you with us for the ride.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
If you compare their best performances Fierceness is best by a long way….key word is “if”..
Hi Steve
With John Velazquez committed to ride Fierceness in the Derby, have you heard any rumblings from the Mott camp as to who will ride Resilience?
Thanks, Steve.
Havent heard anything official. Sometimes trainers will wait to see if any big names come free.
Mott said he was reaching out to Junior Alavarado for Resilence
Thats the name I heard being thrown around.
There is a bigger name than that and just this last Saturday he won 6 races in row at Santa Anita.
I hope Castellano gets the mount on Resilience.
Steve, it really is a treat to read your column. Thank you for all the careful thought you put into the rankings. I’m pleased to see that the four horses who most intrigue me are all in your top 10, though like you, I took note of Michael McCarthy’s earlier comments re Endlessly’s prospects on the dirt.
For some reason, it took me a very long time this KD season to find horses I was excited about and could root for, but now I have them! Looking forward to following the run-up to the Derby with you and the community on here.
I apprecate it. Thank you..
ROGER Will Pletcher [5to10weeks] run Fierceness back in the Preakness if he wins the derby . STEVE thank you for do for us. Good luck
Sierra Leone:
From my initial list Sierra Leone was ranked joint #1 with Parchment Party. He quickly stood alone with the exit of PP from the Derby Trail. The colt has validated my assessment that he is top class.
If he had maintained a straight course in the last furlong of the Remsen. He would be one of 3 likely KD starters with an unblemished record. I consider him the most likely winner of the 150th running of the KD.
Deterministic:
In a reply to one of the regular contributors to this forum. I highlighted that the captioned colt had a January foaling date. To many foaling dates are insignificant. But the litany of records that I maintain reflect one January foal winning the KD in several decades. Interestingly, February the month that follows January has produced the most KD winners in the last 3 to 4 decades.
Dispute concurring with the supporter that Deterministic reflected signs of being an exceptional talent. I was not optimistic he would emerge the 2024 KD winner. I guess the fact that Verrazano and Gemologist, two brilliant and undefeated January foals that finished amongst the also ran in their respective KDs, was enough to fuel my pessimism.
I cannot see how the connections of this colt maintain KD plans after his abysmal performance in the Wood. A close off the board finish could keep hope alive. But almost 18L off the board has to replace hope with despair. But sicker babies have been known to survive.
Undefeated Foreign Invaders:
It is likely that Japan will be represented by two undefeated entrants in KD 150. Forever Young was bet down to 12/1 in KDFP #6. T O Password closes at a whopping 135/1. Could the focus be on the wrong invader?
I made another insane Future Pool wager with $100 on T O Password. A swing for the fences with a known unknow or probably an unknown unknown Go big or go home. I am a sucker for May foals at big odd. Who is Country House & Mine That Bird? Well, one is a promoted KD winner @5/1. One is shocking KD winner @50/1.
Forever Young has a February foaling date. KD winners with February foaling dates have outnumbered the rest of months. Is this a positive for FY? Who knows! But history is certainly on the colt’s side.
Epic Ride:
For the gamblers that read my submission dedicated to the subject colt. I hope you cashed on the TRI. His 51/1 post time odds spiced up the tri and super. The colt is one to watch if he doesn’t make the KD field and is directed to the Pat Day Mile.
EDIT:
Well, one was a promoted KD winner @65/1. One was a shocking KD winner @50/1.
I had a wager on Country House. He was my mudder, so when it started raining, I had no choice; the WPS wager paid nicely. As for Mine That Bird, I couldn’t believe the champion two-year-old in Canada went off at 50-1. I liked his pedigree and with Calvin Borel aboard, I was hoping for a Street Sense ride, so I put a win wager on him.
This year, there are several horses to consider; perhaps a major upset horse could win the run for the roses. I don’t bet on speed numbers in these route races; it is all about the mare, (top and bottom). I must say that Tapit is a great broodmare sire.
On another note, Power Squeeze has forgotten how to lose a race. The Union Rags filly is on a four-race winning streak. She is my Kentucky Oaks horse.
I expected Epic Ride to take the early Bluegrass lead, instead he Sat off and ran a nice race ….same with Doug O’Neills Turf Paradise Derby winner E J Marks the Spot who sat outside, Mike Smith race tode the eventual winner, keeping him from getting outside around the far turn, really a terrific ride—,and finished third….
“repolarizing”- I wish that I had the creativity to come up with that.
I’m pretty sure that the Derby winner is among Steve Haskin’s top four. I hope that I land on the right one. That all of us land on the right one.
I hope that Sierra Leone’s habit of lugging in doesn’t get him DQ’d at some point. Maybe Chad Brown can find a way to fix that. I never worry about Chad Brown horses running wide. They almost always are ready.
I was really pleased with Just a Touch’s run on Saturday. He did get tired in the stretch, but he had run hard all the way. If he can take another big step forward in the Derby, he could be sitting in the catbird seat right off of Fierceness. So many times, the winning spot to be in.
Brad C has 2 horses in the top 4. Speaking of Brad C, does any trainer get as many horses that look the same? Big, strong, and muscular.
Thank you for noticing that and mentioning it. I was kinda proud of that one. Lol
“I’m pretty sure that the Derby winner is among Steve Haskin’s top four.”
TMcD,
There are no sureties in Thoroughbred Racing as it is a sport of glorious uncertainties.
I tend to use the word ‘Likely’ in many of my posts, due to the uncertain nature of the sport we all love.
Is the likely winner of KD 150 amongst the top 5 in the week #12 rankings? I would be in concurrence with same if not for the results of the last five years. There are known unknowns and unknown unknows in the field.
If the trend of the last two decades hold, neither the #1 nor #2 ranked horse will emerge the winner.
A Resilience win would give sire Into Mischief an unprecedented 3rd winner in matter of 5 years. That is unlikely to be part of KD history at the moment. The top 5 is therefore narrowed to Catching Freedom and Just A touch.
Brad Cox is known to show up on big days. His transformation of Kicks Go from a nine times consecutive loser to world # 1 and BCC winner is one for the record books. Enough disclosed.
The BRIS speed figures for Saturday’s races were published this morning.
Resilience 104
Sierra Leone 101
Stronghold 98
All good!
Hi Winston,
Thanks for that. I didn’t know you could get them until they came out in pp’s again. By chance did they post the pace figs for those 3 races?
Jim, they only post the speed figures on the website. We’ll have to wait for the preliminary PPs to get the other numbers.
1C and 2C Page Figs from Brisnet
Blue Grass Pace Figs 87/101
Wood 99/106
Santa Anita 93/100
Thanks, Craig. Combined with the speed figs, those are all impressive. Where do you find the pace figs?
I downlaod the raw data files from Bris
Got it. Thanks.
Thanks Craig!
There’s something interesting relative to the Blue Grass Stakes that’s inexplicable to me, which means that it’s probably easily explained.
2024 pace figs = 87/101 (46.48, 1:10.83)
2022 pace figs = 88/99 (48.39, 1:12.72)
So, they have the pace pretty much the same even though the 2024 pace calls were nearly 2 full seconds faster, or approx 11 lengths faster. That could be reasonable since the 2022 race was contested over a track rated good.
2024 Final Speed Fig = 101 (1:50,08)
2022 Final Speed Fig = 103 (1:50.35)
These Final Speed Figs suggest that the 2024 track was playing about half a second quicker, but the Pace Figs suggest the 2024 track was playing almost 2 seconds quicker.
It seems to me like the 2024 Final Time should have been very close to 1:48 if the track was playing as quick as the Pace Figs suggest.
Or if the track was only half a second faster in 2024 as the Final Speed Fig suggests, then the Pace Figs should have been blazing.
If the former is true, then Sierra Leone’s performance is heavily over rated.
If the latter is true, then Just a Touch ran a screamer of a race. and Bris is just way off on the Pace Figs
Any thoughts on what I’m missing on this one?
Hi Steve, Awesome (with a capital A) write-up this week. I love to see how your opinions coalesce as as the season goes along. You are truly amazing at expressing your thought process as you weigh the pros and cons of each contender. For years I used to put together a Derby Cheat Sheet for the people that I worked with. It would be several pages long because I wanted to give them pretty much everything that I’d learned about each entrant. It was fun, but I realized how much more difficult it was to write out my thoughts compared to just sitting down with a few people and talking about the entrants. They appreciated my effort, but I thought it came out a jumbled mess more often than not : )
No need to reply to this on though as this is kind of an experiment. I wanted to share something that I think is interesting, but I’m hoping that I can just copy and paste from my spreadsheet. The format may make this look like a jumble too. We’ll see here in a few.
What I’m copying and pasting is the Bris Pace Figs for this years preps along with the corresponding figs from 2022 and 2023. The first column is this year, the second column is 2022 and the last is 2023. The reason for the odd order is that I was originally just comparing this year to 2022 and decided to add in 2023 as well just because the info was handy.
The main thing that I wanted to point out is how much faster the Louisiana Derby pace was this year compared to the perception of how fast it was. The further I went, though, the more amazed I was at how slow the paces have been this year. Things heated up this past weekend, but those numbers aren’t in yet. Anyway, here goes. Lets see if it comes out readable. : )
Florida Derby 84/93 100/113 101/108
Louisiana Derby 94/106 90/93 78/82
Risen Star 89/89 100/102 111/117
Lecomte 87/89 104/101 104/110
Arkansas Derby 93/96 98/97 98/96
Rebel 91/93 80/89 105/105
Gotham 90/103 94/103 85/85
Withers 90/97 110/105 95/100
Tampa Bay Derby 52/48 85/84 92/95
Holy Bull 66/78 99/96 82/81
Fountain of Youth 81/92 96/95 98/105
John Battaglia 86/88 92.96 N/A
Jeff Ruby 89/92 92/95 96/106
Sam F Davis 94/98 99/97 N/A
Sunland Derby 86/92 N/A 101/102
Southwest 91/90 100/104 97/96
Smarty Jones 95/94 108/102 85/90
San Felipe 93/96 110/118 90/96
Robert B Lewis 99/103 97/104 N/A
El Camino Real 107/101 N/A
Leonatus 80/82 93/97 83/86
Maybe this will look better for anyone who thought it might be interesting if a little more in line.
FlaDby 84/93 100/113 101/108
LouDby 94/106 90/93 78/82
RisenSt 89/89 100/102 111/117
Lecomt 87/89 104/101 104/110
ArkDby 93/96 98/97 98/96
RebelS 91/93 80/89 105/105
Gotham 90/103 94/103 85/85
Withers 90/97 110/105 95/100
TampaB 52/48 85/84 92/95
Holy Bull 66/78 99/96 82/81
FountY 81/92 96/95 98/105
JBattag 86/88 92.96 N/A
JeffRuby 89/92 92/95 96/106
SamFDa 94/98 99/97 N/A
SunlDby 86/92 N/A 101/102
Sthwest 91/90 100/104 97/96
SmartyJ 95/94 108/102 85/90
SanFelip 93/96 110/118 90/96
RobBLe 99/103 97/104 N/A
ElCamRl 107/101 N/A
Leonata 80/82 93/97 83/86
Could the Risen Star be a “key race” in identifying contenders ??
Consider the following results from the Risen Star.
Sierra Leone 1st
Track Phantom 2nd
Catching Freedom 3rd
Resilience 4th
Honor Marie 5th
Now look at the results of those same horses in their next race.
Sierra Leone 1st in the Blue Grass
Resilience 1st in the Wood Memorial
Catching Freedom 1st in the Louisiana Derby
Honor Marie 2nd in the Louisiana Derby
Track Phantom 4th in the Louisiana Derby
The Fair Grounds seem to be a “spring board” and valid proving ground for KY Derby contenders
Gary, you missed my comment below about the RS. I think the main thing about the subsequent performances is that Sierra Leone is really good!
Winston, totally agree with your assessment of Sierra Leone.
My point was that the Risen Star also produced some quality contenders for the Derby, to challenge the favorites.
Indeed. I’d have to do a lot of research to find a penultimate prep that produced three final prep winners. I might not find one.
There’s a plethora of points to ponder in Steve’s thorough analysis. One particular point that stood out was the possibility that Hades would qualify for the Derby with a win in the Lexington, thereby giving Fierceness some significant competition in the early stages. I wasn’t expected to be watching the Lexington for Derby considerations.
I’m wondering if Hades has enough speed to affect the chances of Fierceness. We can’t infer anything from the Florida Derby due to Hades’ poor start. His half-mile time, running in 6th place, was 48 or 48 1/5. The pace he set in the Holy Bull was ridiculously slow (25; 50 2/5, 1:14 1/5). In his 7f allowance win, he was out in leisurely 23 and 46 sec fractions.
If not Hades, which horse will challenge Fierceness? Will that be the central question of this year’s Derby? Dornoch? No More Time?
A final thought: Had there been in recent memory a 3yo derby prep that produced three next-out winners of the big final preps? This year, the Risen Star produced the winners of the Blue Grass, the Louisiana Derby, and the Wood. Also, Honor Marie was a solid second in the La Derby.
This will be fun!
On Monday morning April 9th a relative e-mailed Steve Haskin’s final 2024 Kentucky Derby Dozen article. I was thrilled to learn and read that “…the most insightful horse-racing journalist, “…the best horse-racing writer,” and “…the most readable horse-racing journalist” was still active, articulate, and relevant commenting on the “Run for the Roses” in 2024! I also and long-awaited and enjoyed his prolific horse-racing journalism across decades! I rank this article as one of his many best and rate it a “Thorograph Writing Number of “1” ! Thank you, Steve!
I
Oh wow! Thank you for posting and for the kind words. They mean a lot. And thank your relative.
Steve, as the final flickers of the Derby preps become extinct this Saturday, with the running of the Lexington Stakes, we look forward to your final speculation as the colts prepare for the Kentucky Derby.
For me the six colts, in no particular order, that seem more likely to battle out for the roses are Chasing Freedom, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, Just a Touch and Stronghold. The latest Derby Rankings have been released and many aline with Steve’s expert eye which is reassuring.
Chasing Freedom and Honor Marie I’ve followed since the sales so, hopefully, they will make a noise at Churchill Downs. Sierra Leone reminded me so much of his dam, Heavenly Love, at the sales then, with Peter Brant, who has such brilliant luck, buying the colt you expected him to succeed. These three have the most emotional attachment but, perhaps, also having the hardest task in winning being closers.
Fierceness, Just a Touch, and Stronghold have the distinct advantage of being on or near the lead which in the Kentucky Derby always seems to be the place to be. If Johnny Velasquez is allowed to control the race up front on Fierceness the race is over, bar the shouting. The post position draw may be incredibly influential this year which adds to the heightened anticipation. Fun, isn’t it?
While waiting for the next 4 weeks to take its course in Kentucky there is the Satsuki Sho – Japanese 2,000 Guineas – to be run next Sunday at Nakayama Racecourse over 2,000 meters on the Turf. Shin Emperor, the full brother to Peter Brant’s Arc winner, Sottsass, by winning the Satsuki Sho may elicit some positive vibes in the Brant camp for Sierra Leone’s attempt at the roses. Racing is full of omens.
Nevertheless, in England, the build up for the return of superstar colt City of Troy in the English 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 4 is all the rage at ridiculously low odds considering the field and that the colt hasn’t started since October, 2023.
Across the channel in France, the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas) will take shape on May 12 at ParisLongchamp with a race dominated by favored Siyouni colts – Elbaz, Roshvar, and Shadizi at this stage. With a month away anything can happen of course.
On May 25 it’s time for the Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh with the field often an assortment of successful and unsuccessful colts from the above two races along with some later developing colts. Make sure to write down all the dates to enjoy the races.
Mind you, we mustn’t forget the Preakness Stakes on May 18 which should be fascinating with the Baffert colts ready to challenge the Kentucky Derby winner for supremacy.
Once again, many thanks Steve, in making the Kentucky Derby Preps so enjoyable for everyone to follow. Unfortunately, with my busy work schedule at Melbourne Uni these days any future comments from me will be scarce.
Best of luck everyone in your punting. Racing is just the best.
Thank you David for that comprehensive international report. I’m sorry you’ll be leaving us, but look forward to an occasonal post as we count down to the Derby. You will be missed.
Thanks Steve, the extra workload is only for the next 3 months or so but unfortunately it coincides with, arguably, the most ‘fun’ part in racing in the US and reading everyone’s hopes is fascinating which I’ll miss.
I too will miss your posts, especially at this time of year. You always have something interesting to add to the discussion. I hope you find time to comment occasionally between now and the Derby. This year’s race is a fascinating one and I’m really looking forward to it.
Thank you, Jiffy. I’ll no doubt put a post in here or there but what I’ll miss is reading and responding to everyone else’s posts as they arrive fresh off the press. There is always an exciting vibe here with Steve just before the Derby with passionate discourse on how ‘their’ champion will take the roses. Best of luck to you.
Davids, my top 6 are the same as yours — at least until I get down to the nitty gritty! Please try to post comments as often as possible. The Derby is more important than any job. (Just kidding) (maybe).
Winston, let’s hope they get decent posts, from there the thinking gets down to the ‘nitty gritty.’ Fingers crossed.
I always enjoy both the content and style of your posts, David, though they do expose my dilettante status when it comes to racing. It is great that you and Steve retain the wonder which has slipped some in me.
Todd thank-you for the kind words. What I appreciate most about Steve’s writing is that you have your best friend with you at the races while you discuss the pros and cons of each individual horse while enjoying the beauty of the thoroughbred.
So sorry you are cutting back on the blog, Davids! Your posts are so insightful, and one one of the best reasons to keep coming back each week.
Ms Blacktype, thank you. I’m now in your situation ‘work’ is overriding your pleasure. Hopefully, that will change over the next couple of months but I’ll miss not reading all the varying opinions. Let’s hope City of Troy comes back as good a 3 year old as he was a 2 year old. Aidan O’Brien thinks he’s the best horse he has ever had which is ‘some’ statement.
Davids I am sure your work at Melbourne Uny is important, but it pales, in importance to your contributions to the Haskin blog! I fully expect your comments to remain a regular occurrence!!!….
Ha ha Thanks Mathew, you may well be right. I will certainly miss reading the frenzy of comments leading up to the Derby. I never really intended to get back into this type of work demands again but hopefully it’s only over the next three or so months. Off to work now.
Davids, count me among the group members who will miss your commentary.
Your thoughts, expertise and interest in the International races have certainly help me to get up to speed have most definitely helped me get my hands around the International competitions.
I have also enjoyed your posts about Australia and your experiences there. Being an arm chair traveler, I delight in learning about other cultures.
Hopefully you will be back soon! I look forward to that day. Take care and “see ya in the funny papers”.
Thank you, Lynda for the kind words. I’ve noticed your keen interest in Japanese breeding/racing and Royal Ascot. This year could be special in England should City of Troy follow through with the expectations coming from Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien come to fruition. Only the same wait time as for the Kentucky Derby will tell the story.
Living back in Australia has rekindled childhood memories. I fell in love with the Australian Triple Crown races for 2 & 3 year olds in 1970 because most of the boys and some girls used to follow racing at primary school and we took turns of going to the races with different families which was a marvelous way to socialize children. Happier days.
Maybe you should have ranked Sierra Leone & Fierceness 1A & 1B. The assesments were very spot on but I think we may have a longshot winner this year. The four that I like are Stronghold, Resilience, Just A Touch &
Endlessly.
I do not understand why so many folks keep Dornoch ranked so high. He has not improved much & to me runs the same race each time. Imagination appears to be a nice horse but going 10 furlongs against 19 other horses seems to be asking a lot.
Of the two favorites, I would lean toward Sierra Leone over Fierceness.
Do you want me to change Imagination to Stronghold or am I misreading that line?
No need to change anything, it wasn’t meant to offend you.
I just don’t believe the 2 on top will win the Derby/
First of all TY Steve for your unequalled insight into KY Derby Contenders. So much relevant and interesting information, my favorite site to read. I see some mention of Futures bets here. Alot of nice payoffs. I wonder why CD has not posted results from Pool 6 as of yet. I spoke to a CD Rep this afternoon and he told me they would be posted today but it has not happened. Anybody know why the delay?
Thank you very much fo the kind words. I really appreciate it. I was wondering the same thing about the odds. i wanted to mention some of them. Obviously a glitch somewhere.
Steve, glad to see you were able to squeeze Society Man into the final spot of your Derby rankings. It was only last week you mentioned Lat Long as being “arguably the most accomplished (future wager) 468/1 shot of all time.” Only one week later, with Danny Gargan’s other horse, is it safe to say we now have the most accomplished (future wager) 793/1 shot of all time?
Those odds are insane. He actually looks like a legitimate Derby horse who is improving and can pick up a piece of it. I probably have him ranked a little too low after watching the Wood several more times. Not sure where you saw that; CD doesnt have the final odds on their website yet.
The odds for Pool 6 and all the previous pools are available on Dick Downey’s Derby website.
Steve Haskin-
Thanks for publishing KD Rankings Week 12. It includes good coverage for all the horses on the Derby Trail. Another good year with the Derby just three weeks away. Nice job of spotting upcoming horses that other analysts often overlook.
Last weekend, I made only one bet. Ten dollars across the board on Epic Ride in the Blue Grass Stakes. Off odds were 51-1. Finishing third, show payoff barely covered original WPS bets and cost of DRF Sat ed. Currently, Epic Ride is on the outside looking in at #22 on the Points List. Needs help to make the KD Starting Gate.
One other Future Wager that I have going is Resilience in Pool #3. Twenty$$ at odds of 90- or 100-1. Hope he stays healthy and draws well for post position. Maybe he can contend in the 1 1/4 mile race. If he has Hail To Reason DNA, that can only help.
Thanks again for posting the Derby Rankings for twelve weeks. Three months went by too fast. Good luck betting the Derby
7.5 Furlongs
Thanks very much. It did go by fast. I thought Epic Ride ran a super race. and actually had him in the Top 15 until I saw he didnt have enough points. I really want him and Ennis to get in. Its a great story and I loved the way he ran. Amazingly he and Society Man would be on all my exotics wagers.
My husband has future bets on Fierceness and Endlessly.
Eva hopes Domestic Product runs well, despite his last race being a while ago.
I am waiting for Post Positions to be drawn, but I do hope Forever Young runs big in Derby. I do like Sierra Leone, but a deep closer to win the Derby? Not sure about that.
What do you think the chances of either Honor Marie or Just Steel to run in top 4 are?
Hi Sherri, you have to bet on Domestic Product in the Preakness. Thats Eva’s race, right? Lol. . Remember, deep closers won the last two years. Honor Marie may be my win bet at a pretty good price and I will have him in all bets, Many people have forgotten about him but I feel he is sitting on a big race. Just Steel can cetainly hit the board if he can finally run two good ones in a row
Steve,
Eva got her heart broken last year with/for Practical Move. So I just hope Domestic Product stays healthy. I have been all over the place with these horses myself! Lol. First I wanted Honor Marie, then he ran terrible in the slop. Then I thought maybe Mystik Dan, changed my mind. Then I was on the Dornoch-Sierra Leone rivalry. That didn’t happen again. So, the only horse that made me truly emotional this season is Forever Young. Before and during the UAE Derby the commentators said things weren’t looking good for him to overcome so much, but he did. And he is still undefeated. Also, I can’t totally shake off my initial hope for Honor Marie either. And as far as Just Steel goes. I forgot about him like everyone else. But despite him being run so much, he is hanging in there, and I thought it was precious when I saw him running up there in the Arkansas Derby like that! It’s like you said, the horse doesn’t know it isn’t the 1980s and that horses don’t run that much anymore. I’ve only won bets on Sierra Leone this year, so maybe that is why I like him. He remains consistent, like I can depend on him to show up!
Steve; I can certainly understand your conflict with who to place #1 between Fierceness and Sierra Leone. For me it came down to which is the faster horse. I think most would agree that if he runs his race, Fierceness would be very difficult to catch. And, or course, a dead closer is either very lucky (or very good) if he doesn’t get stopped in a 20-horse field.
The horse I like better than you do is Stronghold. No doubt partly it’s the story and I admit I didn’t delve into his pedigree or realize that the final 3/16ths was slow, but I really like that colt. I like the way he was willing to come through a small hole to get into contention and I like the way he fought and was pulling away approaching the wire. He’ll try, that’s for sure.
I like the horse as well and had him ranked several times. He ran a gutsy race against a gutsy horse. I;m just not sure how far he wants to go.
Delving into his pedigree more I see a concern there. The sire side of his pedigree is strong for stamina but his dam side is not. My preference is generally for speed over stamina and Stronghold is the other way around.
Steve;
Great column; an incredibly informative overview of where the Derby horses stand at this point so close to Derby day.
I have the following futures, if your #1 or #2 win, I will be out the $712 I have invested.
1. Catching Freedom $7,150
2. Just a Touch $3,184
3. Resilience $8,800
4. Mystik Dan $4,950
5. Honor Marie $2,000
6. Endlessly $8,000
7. Grand Mo the First $8,250
Also am on Grand Mo the First ($8,250), Liberal Arts ($7,500) and Common Defense ($2,750) should they get in. This year, it seems logical horses were at pretty high odds just prior to their last prep races; you are definitely right about Resilience; I was able to press him at well above 100-1 prior to his Wood win. I hope we both cash!
Thank you for all the great information for the past weeks; I was able to build my futures this year with a lot of help from you! If I am fortunate enough to cash, dinner is on me next time you visit Las Vegas!
I would come to Vegas just ffor that. I wish I had $712 to bet on the Futue Wager. Good luck. I hope one of them comes tthugh fo you
Now that we’re done with the major prep races, what remains is for them to stay fit and ready for the big dance.
I am in agreement with Steve for the top three spots. What stands out to me is the power and speed exhibited by Fierceness in his wins. I love seeing the deep closer do well…but the KD can be a huge challenge in a twenty horse field.
I do have my top five, however the final order will be determined after the post parade and warm ups.
Hi Steve
I was delighted to see two of my Derby Futures picks ranked 4th and 5th.
Best case scenario for me would be, Resilience winning the Derby and Catching Freedom finishing 2nd. The payouts for $40.00 win wager and my $2.00 exacta p/w wheel wager would be as follows:
Exacta Payout, $13,778
Win Wager Payout, $3,720
Total: $17,498
If the reverse happens, (Catching Freedom 1st and Resilience 2nd) payouts would be:
Exacta Payout, $11,273
Win Wager Payout, $1,120
Total: $12,393
One slight problem, Resilience needs a jockey. John Velazquez will remain aboard Fierceness.
Frankie Dettori is still out there, maybe Mott will give him a call.
Fingers crossed.
Good luck and congratulations on being able to afford all these $40 future bets
Thanks, Steve
Check one, or all of the following:
a) You can’t take it with you
b) I’m busy spending my children’s inheritance
c) Easy come, easy go
d) Nothing ventured, nothing gained
e) All the above.
Lol. Cliches always work
Steve, you have zeroed in on all the major contenders for the Kentucky Derby and made a compelling case for each of them. Maybe it’s the high I’m on after viewing a total eclipse (I saw the corona, if not the stars), but it seems like Sierra Leone is another Alydar. But is Fierceness enough like Affirmed to win the Derby?
Thank you for your brilliant and compelling analysis. Like the eclipse, the Derby will be a fun race to watch, no matter what happens.
Fierceness reminds me of Big Brown. Sierra Leone runs like Zenyatta. Could Endlessly be this year’s Animal Kingdom?
Steve, great job again -thanks!
Honor Marie will be a very dangerous overlay – now he’s got a good foundation under him
I love that both Fierceness and Sierra Leon are out of AP Indy line mares
Thanks Betsy. I totallly agree about Honor Marie
Especially when you consider his best race was at Churchill, and it was his third start of his form cycle—like the Derby will be …..trainer has mapped out a plan and it’s coming together ….
An announcement on future Derby Rankings.– Beyer figures will no longer be mentioned, as requested by all those who did not bet on Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass because his Beyer figure in the Risen Star was too slow.
Steve, you may have seen this already, but Sierra Leone’s Beyer number in the Risen Star has been upgraded to a 95, per Andy Beyer.
Thats why I said that
Hahahahahaha!
There’s a lot of tosses setting up for this year’s Derby. I’m looking at Endlessly pulling another Animal Kingdom.