Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 14
We have come to the end of the road with our final Derby Rankings in a different format. It has been a wild Derby trail and after 14 weeks we are still left with many questions that won’t be answered until the Derby. Stay tuned next week when we try to sort everything out in our analysis and handicapping strategy. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 22, 2024 – Week 14
By Steve Haskin
1—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
Strengths: Simply put, he is the fastest horse in the race by a huge margin. He can win on the lead or pressing the pace. His speed ratings on his good days are through the roof and leave all the others far behind. His three victories were by an average margin of 10 lengths. He is by a miler, out of a female family loaded with stamina and should have no problem with 10 furlongs. He is a terrific work horse and has often made quality horses look inferior when working in company. In his two disappointing performances he had bad starts and who knows how that affected him. He came back to beat the horse who defeated him by 3 ½ lengths in the Holy Bull Stakes by almost 20 lengths in the Florida Derby. Many people feel he has to have everything his own way, but he pressed a fairly lively pace set by the Champagne Stakes runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and then had Grade 1 winner Muth look him in the eye at the head of the stretch, but shrugged him off and drew away. John Velazquez has won back-to-back Kentucky Derbys on the lead and there is no one you want more in a big race. If he is intent on getting the lead and using his horse’s speed to run his opponents off their feet there isn’t a horse who is fast enough to stay within five lengths of him, especially if they want to be around at the end.
Weaknesses and question marks: His race could very well be won or lost at the break, especially lost. When he has lost after troubled starts his performances have been surprisingly dull. Even Pletcher has been perplexed by his moments of apparent apathy. In the Holy Bull did he simply lose interest running so slow early? He will never inspire confidence until he can string together two or three consecutive big efforts, and do it even when things don’t go his way. Pletcher’s record in the Derby has been polarizing considering the number of horses he has run and the fact that both his wins have been on wet tracks. Unfortunately we won’t know until the Derby whether the colt’s career will be a series of up and down performances or whether he finally has gotten his act together and the Florida Derby was the beginning of a spectacular and consistent career.
2—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
Strengths: His size, stride, and commanding presence puts him in line to be the next Forego/Zenyatta cult hero, all with their own signature quirk. Forego didn’t change leads, Zenyatta had her “dance” step, and he has his crazy action and paddle. But like them, once he is in the clear and is able to use his ground-devouring stride he is unstoppable. He seems to be taking one stride for every two by his opponents. He is on a perfect Thoro-Graph pattern and is the one horse who looks like a sure thing to run his peak performance in the Derby. He possesses the most explosive turn of foot and can go from last on the turn, looking as if he has too much ground to make up, to breathing down the leaders’ necks in a matter of seconds. Tyler Gaffalione has the luxury of knowing he can negotiate traffic on the turn and then swing him out as wide as he has to to put him in position to win. He also seems to save one last burst of speed for inside the final furlong when he is about to pounce on the leaders. In short, his backers never have to panic regardless of where he is, as he has proven he can close into a fast or slow pace. And he has unleashed the same powerful move on sloppy and fast tracks and with or without blinkers, so he is machine-like in that regard and just about everything else. LATE NOTE: Something just hit me that is so obvious I am convinced this Derby has scrambled my brain. Simply put, Sierra Leone has defeated my No. 3 and No. 4 ranked horses, while Fierceness has defeated my No, 18 and No. 19 ranked horses. I agree it makes no sense not having Sierra Leone on top, but as a believer in whammies I lack the courage to rectify that at this late date, so I will just have to bite the bullet and leave the fastest 3-year-old in the country No. 1.
Weaknesses and question marks: He has yet to have his progress stopped by traffic issues, and with his size and enormous stride we still don’t know his stop and go capabilities. We also don’t know how effective he will be if he has to make his stretch rally inside horses, as he has always had a clear outside path. Perhaps that is why Brown worked him inside his workmate this past weekend. His action is very awkward, with his legs seemingly going in all directions, especially throwing his left leg out, and he still has a tendency to angle sharply in toward the rail if there is no one directly inside him. That may very well have cost him the Remsen, but other than that one race nothing has affected him. Although a lot has been made of his refusal to go in the gate before the Blue Grass, I believe that was a one-time incident caused by the close proximity of the crowd. The gate for the Derby is way up the track. But all eyes still will be on him when they load.
3—Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit)
Strengths: Ever since he was a young horse sharing the same training center as Sierra Leone he has done things horses as early developed as he was and being a May 5 foal are not supposed to do. But he is extremely athletic and still fast enough to work in :09 4/5 at the 2-year-old sale. In his three career starts he has never run anything but fast speed figures, regardless of the track, distance, or surface. Whether it’s a six-furlong maiden race in the slop at Fair Grounds, a one-mile stakes in the slop at Aqueduct, or a 1 1/8-mile stakes on a fast track at Keeneland he has run a huge “2 ½” Thoro-Graph number each time, the only 3-year-old to put together three numbers that fast. And he did it at three different distances in three different states. In the Blue Grass, in which he was a strong second to Sierra Leone, he pressed a pace that was so fast he earned a TimeformUS speed figure four points faster than the winner. He has run fast every race despite moving up in class each time, and with those three Thoro-Graph numbers is expected to make a big forward move in the Derby.
Weaknesses and question marks: Although Mage and Justify have defied history by winning the Derby with only three lifetime starts and never racing at 2, it is still a tall order. He is not undefeated and one who will control the pace like Justify, and he has not exhibited that big turn of foot that Mage showed in the Florida Derby. He looks more like a grinder who just keeps coming, so you have to wonder if he can get the better of Fierceness as well as Track Phantom, Dornoch and the other pace horses and be able to outrun the stalkers like Resilience, Mystik Dan, Stronghold, and Just Steel, and still have enough to hold off Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Forever Young, Honor Marie and the other closers. And he will have to do it with only three starts under him. If he is as special as those close to him say he is then anything is possible.
4—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
Strengths: He is the only horse who has done two positive things in his final prep that he has never done before, which definitely is something you want to see before the Derby. One thing he did with new jockey Flavien Prat aboard for the first time in the Louisiana Derby is to change tactics, although not to a huge degree. Always a come from behind horse, he was taken back to last in an 11-horse field, farther back than he had ever been before, and turned in the most powerful stretch run of his career to out-close arguably the strongest closer in the field. The second and more important thing he had never done before is not cost himself a chance to win by failing to keep a straight course or being erratic with his lead changes. So he finally ran a professional race and did nothing to compromise his chances. Yes, he was a bit late changing leads again, but he corrected it by himself and switched smoothly nearing the eighth pole and then poured it on in the final furlong, closing his final three-sixteenths in a time faster than just about every Preakness. His speed figures have improved with every race, so he is still moving in the right direction. He also is as honest as they come, his closing fractions have been extremely strong, and he has won with three different jockeys at three different racetracks.
Weaknesses and question marks: While his Thoro-Graph numbers have kept getting faster, they still are not quite fast enough to typically win the Derby unless he makes a bigger jump than he’s ever made before. We also need to make sure he has gotten rid of all his greenness, as he appeared to in the Louisiana Derby with exception of his late lead change, and how he will react if stuck in traffic. It still would be ideal if he had one more race in which he kept a straight course in the stretch, just to boost confidence a little more. But usually when a 3-year-old matures mentally this time of year that is who he now is.
5—Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
Strengths: He probably has more individual strengths than any horse in the race. He is undefeated in five starts in three countries. He has proven so far that travel does not affect him even when he has a rough time of it, as he did from Japan to Saudi Arabia. He has won stakes in Saudi Arabia and Dubai at one mile and 1 3/16 miles. He has overcome bad posts, wide trips, and failing to change leads the length of the stretch and still finds a way to win. His victory in the Saudi Derby required tremendous determination after he appeared hopelessly beaten in the stretch. His times have compared favorably with those of the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup, and his back-to-back “1’s”on Thoro-Graph are the fastest successive races of any horse in the race. He has run down a fast American miler at a mile and a 4-year-old Argentine horse at 1 3/16 miles. His winning margins have been two, four, and seven lengths and the margins between the second and third-place finisher have been eight lengths, six lengths, and 4 ¾ lengths. So he always decimates the rest of the field. Despite racing in three countries he has won his five races at five different racetracks, both left- and right-handed. So far I like the way he is moving over the Churchill Downs track and he seems to have held his flesh well.
Weaknesses and question marks: The UAE Derby has never produced a horse who has finished on the board in the Kentucky Derby in 19 attempts, although the vast majority of those horses were huge longshots. He has not faced any horses close to the caliber of the horses he will face in the Derby. His tail-female family is inundated with sprinters. Although it has not affected his performances so far, he has traveled an unprecedented 13,500 miles from Japan to Saudi Arabia to Dubai to Kentucky, by way of Brussels and Chicago and a van ride from Chicago to Louisville, so who knows if and when it will catch up to him. He now wears a hood to soften the blow of kickback, and if kickback does bother him, as indicated by all his wide trips, he hasn’t experienced the kind of kickback he will get in the Derby.
6—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
Strengths: His main strength may be that bettors, who believe he needs slop, will ignore his real strengths that are staring them in the face and he will be a big overlay on Derby Day. And those strengths are the fact that he not only turned in the most dominant performance of the year with the fastest speed figures until Fierceness’s Florida Derby, he also scored a dominant victory on a fast track at Churchill Downs, winning by almost eight lengths and earning a 94 Brisnet speed figure and 96 Beyer figure in only his second career start. So whether or not he freaked in the slop he still earned a huge “1/4” Thoro-Graph number despite having a ground-saving trip, which Thoro-Graph takes into account, and blew away Derby contenders Just Steel and Liberal Arts. We have discussed the legitimate reasons for his defeats a number of times. There is no reason after all the trouble he had in the Arkansas Derby that severely cost him why he can’t run back to his Southwest performance. McPeek has watched this colt grow up, with Mystik Dan being foaled at his Magdalena Farm in Kentucky and saddle broke and trained at his Silverleaf Training Center in Florida. His :59 2/5 work under no urging at all shows he is sharp right now. If you are looking for a longshot do you want a speed horse to outun Fierceness or a closer to outclose Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom or do you want a horse like Mystik Dan who can be just about anywhere and has routed his opponents whether running a :45 4/5 half or a :48 2/5 half ?
Weaknesses and question marks: Yes, I will still put the sloppy track performance under question marks because it was so far superior to his other races. But with all the bad weather we’ve been having this year and the number of sloppy tracks there is a decent chance that this perceived weakness and question mark can actually turn into a huge strength on Derby Day. Goldencents is suspect at 1 ¼ miles, although the colt has a ton of stamina in his female family and Goldencents did win the Santa Anita Derby. But Mystik Dan still is a question mark at the Derby distance and he did finish 4 ¼ lengths behind Just Steel in the Arkansas Derby after beating him by eight lengths in the Southwest, and he still needs to rebound on Thoro-Graph after regressing in his last start.
7—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
Strengths: He definitely is a live longshot and another overlay win bet for me, especially since I have had him ranked as high as No. 3 and who could have moved up to No. 1 if he hadn’t encountered that sloppy track in the Risen Star Stakes. He has a dynamite turn of foot, which we have seen going 1 3/16 miles as well as six furlongs when he stormed home in :11 4/5 to break his maiden first time out. He is two-for-two at Churchill Downs and he has two wins and a second on fast tracks. He will actually turn 3 on Derby Day, which also means he is a late foal and still has a lot of room for improvement. He needed that second in the Louisiana Derby to assure a spot in the Kentucky Derby, and now even with that throw-out race in the sloppy Risen Star, he has plenty of bottom and is coming into the Derby sitting on a peak performance. And he has been sharp in his works and gallops at Churchill Downs. His trainer Whit Beckman may be unknown to most people, but he was an assistant to Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, has been to the Derby with Super Saver, and trained in Saudi Arabia, so he has been around a lot of classic horses and has international experience.
Weaknesses and question marks: Like several of the other leading contenders he is pace dependent and his Thoro-Graph progression was disrupted by the Risen Star Stakes, in which he regressed five points, so he had to get those five points back in the Louisiana Derby, which he did. But he still needs to make another four or five point jump to put him in a position to win. His rider Ben Curtis, who was on him for the Louisiana Derby has no Derby or any big-race experience, but did ride him perfectly at Fair Grounds and learned his trade riding in England.
8—Resilience (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike)
Strengths: He is on an excellent Thoro-Graph pattern as far as steady improvement and even from a visual standpoint he looks like a horse who is improving at the right time and is one or two races away from peaking. He has been a picture in the mornings and just exudes class in everything he does. After watching his five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 work on Monday my enthusiasm for him has skyrocketed seeing his energy level and how far and how strong he galloped out and the way he was bouncing coming off the track. He started off slowly then came home his last three-eighths in :35 4/5 with a :23 4/5 final quarter, then galloping out another eighth in :12 4/5 and finally pulling up a mile. I like that he worked slow early to keep him away from Fierceness and the other speed, and that Mott had him come home fast and keep going to build up his fitness. His Wood Memorial victory was with blinkers on for the first time, and horses often show the most improvement with second-time blinkers. He also showed that his impressive maiden victory was not solely attributed to first-time Lasix. Mott has put a lot of bottom under him, running him twice at a mile, then twice at 1 1/16 miles, then twice at 1 1/8 miles. And he just keeps improving. If you are a believer in the Derby gods, who have been very active the last three years, you have to feel the emotional impact of Resilience’s longtime owner and breeder Marty Wygod passing away just days after the Wood Memorial. Wygod, who had transferred ownership of the colt to his daughter Emily Bushnell and partner Ric Waldman, had never run a horse in the Derby.
Weaknesses and question marks: Although he is improving with every start he still has improved only 3 ½ Thoro-Graph points in his last four races, and needs to improve at least that much in the Derby to have a legitimate chance to win. It is certainly possible, but he still hasn’t done it. If you follow the Beyers, his 90 in the Wood is slow for a final Derby prep. Although he still is in good hands, losing John Velazquez hurts, especially considering he has won the Derby three times in the past seven years.
9—Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed)
Strengths: Having six lifetime starts at six different racetracks and never finishing worse than second is quite an achievement, especially for a horse who has won in Kentucky, California and New Mexico and proven to be a warrior when in battle. He holds arguably the most impressive record in the history of California racing by facing seven Bob Baffert-trained horses and finishing ahead of five of them. He broke his maiden going a mile at Churchill Downs and not only defeated future Derby contenders Resilience and Track Phantom, his final time of 1:35 4/5 was three-fifths of a second faster than the other maiden race that day won by Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom. It is safe to say he is the only horse ever to debut at Ellis Park, break his maiden at Churchill Downs, and win the Santa Anita Derby. He is another Derby gods story. As told on Bloodhorse.com, owners Eric and Sharon Waller purchased Stronghold’s fourth dam, One Step, whose daughter, stakes winner Swiss Diva, died giving birth to her first foal, named Diva’s Tribute, who suffered a fractured hock a week after being born. As a broodmare, Diva’s Tribute proved to be too ornery, trying to savage her first foal and becoming too aggressive with her second foal named Spectator. So they put Spectator on a nurse mare and sold Diva’s Tribute. Like her granddam, Spectator, died giving birth to her first foal, who was Stronghold. So you can only imagine the emotions the Wallers are feeling seeing Spectator’s foal heading to the Kentucky Derby.
Weaknesses and question marks: Like several of the other contenders, his speed ratings are improving, but he needs a much bigger jump than any he has made before. On Thoro-Graph he started his career with a solid “8,” but five races later he is still at “5 ½” and likely will need around a six-point improvement to put him in position to win. And as for his Beyers, whatever stock you put in them, his fastest number has been a mediocre at best 89. If you discard the speed ratings and go by his record, his fight, and how much ability you think he may have, he would be a win candidate. But he would have to make a huge improvement facing far better horses than he’s been running against.
10—Encino (Brad Cox, Nyquist – Glittering Jewel, by Bernardini)
Strengths: This is a high ranking for a horse who is not yet a confirmed starter and whose status will be not be known until he works Friday or Saturday. After running a “13”, “13”, and “10” Thoro-Graph number on synthetic he leaped to a “2 ½” in the Lexington Stakes. What you have to like about him is the way he ran down a good horse Epic Ride on synthetic who came back to run a strong third in the Blue Grass Stakes and then set the pace in the Lexington Stakes in his dirt debut and held off The Wine Steward who had beaten Locked in the Breeders’ Futurity. And what was even more impressive about his Lexington score was the 8 ¼-length gap between second and third and the 19 lengths he finished ahead of Hades, who had beaten Fierceness. But his biggest strength is his pedigree. In addition to being by a Kentucky Derby winner out of a half-sister to a Kentucky Derby winner, who is by a Travers, Preakness, and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, who is by a Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, who is by a Triple Crown winner, his male and female families both trace to the legendary Ribot through his sons (on top) Hall of Famer Arts and Letters, winner of the Belmont, Travers, Woodward and two-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup and the sire of Preakness winner Codex, and (on bottom) His Majesty, sire of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony, who sired the winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, and Irish Derby.
Weaknesses and question marks: You have to go back a long way to find a Kentucky Derby winner who had never raced farther than 1 1/16 miles. That is where his pedigree will have to play a huge part. And he has only raced on dirt once. If you want to turn a positive into a negative, yes, his Thoro-Graph numbers improved dramatically switching to dirt, but that big a jump and coming back in only two weeks and stretching out to 1 ¼ miles could very well have “bounce” written all over it.
11—Just Steel, (D. Wayne Lukas, Justify – Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock)
I am starting to get a whiff of a buzz horse, and for good reason. I am doing weaknesses first with him because they can be explained and actually turned into strengths. Weaknesses and question marks: He has been inconsistent, with his speed figures alternating between red-hot and ice-cold; he is being ridden by a young inexperienced jockey; his broodmare sire was a pure sprinter in Australia, racing mostly at five to six furlongs, and Fastnet Rock’s sire Danehill also was a sprinter. And after a big Thoro-Graph leap from a “7” to a “1,” is he also likely to “bounce” in the Derby? And although he has a good chance to hit the board, is he a viable win candidate with only two victories in 11 starts?
Strengths: Let’s address his pedigree first. Although a sprinter, Danehill sired over 300 stakes winners, including group 1 winners from six furlongs to 2 7/8 miles, including the Ascot Gold Cup, English and Irish Derbys, and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. As for his jockey, all I need to say is that his name is Asmussen. There is a good reason for Just Steel’s inconsistent record. For his first six starts Lukas was still trying to figure out who he was, having the colt on the lead going head and head in sprints running :44 and :45 halfs. Since coming from off the pace and going two turns he’s been a different horse. After jumping from an “8” Thoro-Graph number to a “2 ½” in the Southwest Stakes he also seemed likely to bounce, especially when he came back in only three weeks in the Rebel, and breaking from post 11 was seven-wide on the first turn and six-wide on the second turn and still made a good move to close to within a length of the leaders before tiring in what can be considered total throw-out race rather than a bounce. Finally given almost five weeks off he finished a strong second to Muth in the Arkansas Derby, running a career-high “1” Thoro-Graph number and finishing 4 ¼ lengths ahead of Mystik Dan, the horse who beat him by eight lengths in that freakish Southwest performance. Now he gets another five weeks to the Derby and does have previous fast Thoro-Graph numbers to fall back on. If you want to know what a fighter he is, go back and watch his maiden victory at Saratoga; one of the gutsiest performances I’ve seen.
12—Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter)
Strengths: He is another longshot who could be very live. He did all he could to turn two fluky races, due to abnormally slow fractions, into strong performances, and even with the field crawling early in the Tampa Bay Derby his 125 Brisnet late pace figure was faster than anything I can remember. In both the Holy Bull and Tampa Derby he was under a tighter hold than you want to see and wasn’t settled, but once given his head he put in a good run and was striding out beautifully in the final furlong, and of course he did finish ahead of Fierceness in the Holy Bull, or at least some variation of Fierceness. But what always brings me back to him as a serious contender is his maiden victory. After a lackluster debut going six furlongs, Brown did something totally out of character by stretching him out to 1 1/8 miles and putting blinkers on him. One of the most indelible images I’ve seen watching all these races last year and this year was him pulling away from the pack on the far turn and opening up by three lengths with Manny Franco sitting motionless on him while Irad Ortiz on a 2-5 Pletcher colt was pushing hard on his horse and not making up an inch of ground. Domestic Product then cruised home to win by 4 ¼ lengths, closing his final three-eighths in a swift :36 3/5. You just don’t see 2-year-olds doing that going 1 1/8 miles in their second career start. And his time was only three-fifths of a second slower than they would run in the Wood Memorial four months later. To me he is worth including in all bets based just on the image of that maiden victory.
Weaknesses and question marks: Now comes the bothersome part. It’s not a weakness, but a major question mark is not having another prep after the Tampa Bay Derby and going into the Kentucky Derby off an eight-week layoff. No horse has won the Derby off that long a layoff since Morvich in 1922. And those slow fractions have resulted in two slow speed figures with a “7” and “7 ½” on Thoro-Graph. Brown has had good success with horses coming off layoffs, but the Derby is totally different. I am willing to trust Brown’s judgment on this, but it still has to be in the back of your mind. His pedigree doesn’t exactly shout stamina other than Paynter and the Tiznow blood, but he runs like he wants to go on.
13—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic– Puca, by Big Brown)
Strengths: He still has an excellent record, including a three-race winning streak, and is the only horse to beat Sierra Leone, coming back from apparent defeat in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes and getting his nose in front on the wire. And he was able to accomplish this despite ducking in and bouncing off the rail. Being a full-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage, he has had a large following from the start. He did show his brilliance breaking his maiden at Keeneland, winning wire-to wire by 6 ½ lengths. And the only time he has finished out of the money was his fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes when the strategy to rate him off the pace failed badly and he did little running until he switched leads in the stretch and was able to pick up a piece of it.
Weaknesses and question marks: He has always had greenness issues, whether with his lead changes or keeping a straight course and looking around. He no doubt is talented and very game, but you have to question whether he will be able to handle a 20-horse Kentucky Derby cavalry charge and having to deal with Fierceness on the lead now that the intention is to have him go back to his front-running tactics.
14—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
Strengths: Based on his overall record and what his stature was early in the year after breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs and winning the Gun Runner and LeComte Stakes, his reputation has suffered following defeats in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby stretching out in distance. But the bottom line is that he was beaten only a half-length by Sierra Leone and 2 ½ lengths by Catching Freedom. He has been a pure frontrunner in all his races and never finished worse than third until his fourth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles. He has never had more than a 1 ½-length lead at any point and is certainly used to being pressured and standing up to it. In his most recent work he was equipped with blinkers and actually sat off his workmate, so we will see what Asmussen has in store for the Derby. Whether you give him much of a chance to win, there is no denying he is a tough, honest horse who runs his race every time and will make anyone around him work for everything they get.
Weaknesses and question marks: His strengths in his previous races could very well be his weakness in the Derby as he has been one-dimensional in all his races and we have no idea if that will change. And of course he has never encountered a horse like Fierceness before and his big question mark is how long he can hang around with the champ and Dornoch and other horses with speed breathing down his neck or outrunning him. In seven starts his Thoro-Graph numbers have gone from a “9” to a “5” and back to a “7 ½” so he unfortunately is heading in the wrong direction and could eventually find a home at shorter distances or against lesser competition.
15—Society Man (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – You Cheated, By Colonel John)
Strengths: He entered the Derby picture late and quickly made his presence felt with a strong second to Resilience in the Wood Memorial coming off a maiden victory. Gargan obviously thought enough of him to run him in the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes although still a maiden. His past performance figures indicate he did absolutely nothing in the race, finishing a well-beaten eighth, but what went unnoticed was that he was trapped along the rail down the backstretch just waiting for something to open up. Just as his jockey started pushing on him to make his move he got stopped cold and had to take up sharply, dropping back to last and now far back. He tried to make a bit of a rally in the upper stretch, but ran out of gas. So we really don’t know how good this horse is. He very well could be a bigger threat in the Derby than stablemate Dornoch. How he went off at 106-1 in the Wood is baffling. This time he laid closer to the pace and kept improving his position. He couldn’t catch Resilience, but kept pace with him through the final furlong, with his Thoro-Graph number jumping from all double digits to a “4 ¼,” virtually the same number as the winner. Also his pedigree is geared toward stamina. I thought he looked terrific working in company with Dornoch and wouldn’t let him get his head in front.
Weaknesses and question marks: With the self implosions of Deterministic and Tuscan Sky in the Wood and the late scratch of El Grande O, there really wasn’t much behind him. Although his Thoro-Graph number was good, his Beyer was only an 87, so take that for what it’s worth. Does his big Thoro-Graph jump indicate an impeding bounce in the Derby? Interesting longshot, but is he talented enough at this point in his career?
16—Endlessly (Mike McCarthy, Oscar Performance – Dream Fuhrever, by Langfuhr)
Strengths: Again, we still don’t even know for sure if he’s running, and if he is and the track comes up sloppy he moves up several places, as grass horses often do well at Churchill Downs, especially if the track is wet. He has won five of his six starts and his stretch-running victories over a synthetic track in the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks were powerful performances, as were his victories on the grass in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf and Zuma Beach. His Beyer figures have climbed 11 and 12 points since switching to synthetic and the Jeff Ruby has produced the Derby winner and runner-up in the last two years.
Weaknesses and question marks: McCarthy wasted no time after the Jeff Ruby in stating emphatically he would not run in the Derby and would instead point for a grass stakes on Derby Day. But you can’t blame the owner/breeders for getting Derby fever after so many years in the game, and the colt is now still being considered for the Derby. I did not like his most recent workout, as I felt he was struggling to keep up with his workmate, who easily got the better of him on the gallop-out. If it was a workout they were looking for to convince them to run in the Derby this was not it. Also, his breeding is almost all grass, so it will be interesting to see what his connections will do. This is a very talented colt on his preferred surface, and we don’t know for sure how he would run on dirt. But so far he hasn’t shown anything to convince us he can be competitive in the Derby, and McCarthy obviously had seen enough in the mornings to consider him for the Derby. Again he is very talented and perhaps that alone will be enough.
17—West Saratoga (Larry Demeritte, Exaggerator – Mo Wicked, by Uncle Mo)
Strengths: I’m not sure where he fits in the Derby, but you have to love this horse and his story, starting with his trainer. This is the stuff of fairy tales and movies. What I love the most about West Saratoga is his fight. If he can’t win he will run his guts out to finish second. If he can’t be second he will run his guts out to be third. Watching the stretch run of the Jeff Ruby with Endlessly drawing away it was as if he knew he had to fight for second to get his trainer to get in the Derby, as he held off a cavalry charge of horses and refused to let anyone pass him for that runner-up spot. But that has always been his m.o. When Book em Danno trounced his field in the Pasco Stakes, he fought for second, finishing a neck in front of the third horse. In the Sam F. Davis Stakes when No More Time and Agate Road drew off from the others he fought for third, finishing a head in front of the fourth horse. In two of his second-place finishes last year he finished a head and a half-length in front of the third horse. But if you think he only loses, he defeated some pretty good horses in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, winning by almost two lengths. Not bad for a horse by a son of Curlin out of a daughter by Uncle Mo that Demeritte, a native of the Bahamas, picked out at the Keeneland September yearling sale for a meager $11,000.
Weaknesses and question marks: Although he has been in the money in eight of his 10 starts he only has two victories and doesn’t match up with the leading contenders in talent and speed figures. But he is always in the hunt and you can bet he will have his name called several times and will keep fighting to the end. As Demerrite says his “Impossible Dream” has already come true.
18—Grand Mo the First (Victor Barboza Jr., Uncle Mo – Lillies So Fair, by Giant’s Causeway)
Strengths: I hate ranking him so low because I wrote four paragraphs on him in the Week 10 Rankings. His trainer is another on the growing list of top Venezuelan-born trainers to come to the U.S. and have success. This colt is out of a half-sister to Florida Derby winner Materiality. He has won sprinting on a synthetic surface, was third to Endlessly in the one-mile Zuma Beach on grass, and in his three dirt races was third in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes, 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby, and 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby. So he has done it all on any surface and at any distance, and has never finished out of the money. In the Tampa Derby he rallied widest of all and was beaten only a neck by Domestic Product. He never threatened against Fierceness in the Florida Derby after getting bumped at the start. Barboza says he honestly believes this horse is growing professionally and mentally.
Weaknesses and question marks: All indications are that he is more a horse for down the road a little and simply isn’t fast enough right now to be a serious threat in the Kentucky Derby. It is no disgrace to finish far behind Fierceness, but the Florida Derby showed he is not in that class at this time.
19—Catalytic (Saffie Joseph Jr., Catalina Cruiser – One Show Only, by Distorted Humor)
Strengths: He did finish 2 ½ lengths ahead of Grand Mo the First in the Florida Derby coming off only two six-furlong races and looks to have more room for improvement right now. That was asking a lot from a young inexperienced colt to stretch out that far, especially against a horse like Fierceness, but to his credit he tracked the champ all the way and managed to have enough left to get the 50 points he needed to make it into the Kentucky Derby. With a little improvement who knows what kind of impact he can make in the early running. Certainly his future appears bright. If you follow the Beyers you have be thrilled with his jump from a pair of 77’s to a 90.
Weaknesses and question marks: The only reason I have Grand Mo the First ranked ahead of him is he has the experience, a more suitable running style for the Derby, and is less likely to “bounce.” Catalytic could have a tougher time caught up in what should be a pretty contentious pace unless Fierceness blows them all away again. This is a colt we will hear from in the future. But I have to add it wouldn’t shock me if he outruns his odds and expectations.
20—T O Password (Takayanagi Daisuke, Copano Rickey – T O Rachel , by King Kamehameha)
Strengths: Not much to say about him other than he is undefeated in two starts and appears to have good early speed. He was able to open a clear lead in the stretch in an important Derby prep that gave him an automatic invitation to the race. Like Forever Young, his sire is by a son of Sunday Silence.
Weaknesses and question marks: Since statistics were recorded in 1937, no horse has even won or finished in the money in the Derby with only two lifetime starts. After opening a clear lead in the stretch in the about 1 1/8-mile Fukuryu Stakes he barely held on to win by a fast-diminishing head.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Yes there is a mob knocking on the door, just not for the Derby. There is a dynamite group of horses awaiting the Preakness and races farther down the road. Even if no one from the Derby runs back in two weeks you still could have a potentially terrific field. Among the talented horses possibly targeting the Preakness are Arkansas Derby winner Muth, the rapidly improving Tuscan Gold, who many believe was the best horse in the Louisiana Derby after a wide trip; Encino if he doesn’t run in the Derby; Antiquarian, who ran well in the Louisiana Derby considering his nightmare experience that started when he broke through the gate; The Wine Steward, narrowly beaten in the Lexington Stakes; the undefeated Knightsbridge, who has won both his races in a romp, earning “4 ½” and “2 ¾” Thoro-Graph numbers; Epic Ride, third in the Blue Grass and waiting on the Derby also-eligible list: Protective, a maiden who closed fast from 11th to finish third in the Wood Memorial with the addition of blinkers; Pandagate, who represented America well with a third-place finish in the UAE Derby; impressive maiden winner Capital Idea, who apparently wants a fast track; Tuscan Sky, who deserves another chance after his Gotham debacle; two lightly raced but highly regarded speedballs Top Conor and Victory Avenue; and last but not least a potential superstar in the Pletcher-trained Mindframe, who won his career debut in spectacular fashion, earning an equally spectacular “3/4” Thoro-Graph number. And who knows what’s going on with Nysos and Maymun from the Baffert barn and if we will see the same Deterministic we saw in the Gotham Stakes.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Here’s a “Big-Money Oaks-Derby Double”: the $1.15million Leslie’s rose to the $2.3million Sierra Leone.
It could come in. Both are contenders.
Just read the story of 1924 KD winner Black Gold. I’m not sure if Steve has already written of Black Gold, but the DRF story is compelling, if a little thin. This year’s derby will be won by someone. Some of us will cash bets; some of us will revel in the brilliance of our handicapping. Maybe the winning connections will ultimately disappoint us, as they sometimes do. The winning horse may be easily forgotten or one of the greats. But it should always be about the horse. We stand on shaky ground, asking these animals to fulfill us, so I am going to keep my focus on the horse. The story of Black Gold reminded me of what i sometimes forget.
Todd, I just read it too. The DRF does not run long-form stories about horses, especially historic ones. We’re fortunate that we’re treated to Steve’s wonderful pieces, which weave in all the magic over a long arc of story-telling.
I think they should just let him run. Not saying all out from start to finish, but if he wants to go, let him go. Don’t fight him too hard. Win or lose.
Fierceness can turn out to be something very special. He’s had a good start in that direction.
We’ll soon find out how it all works out.
I’m rooting for Catching Freedom, but i really like Fierceness too.
One of the saddest stories in horse racing history only exceeded I think by what happened to Alydar.
I plan on taking a shot at the Pick 5, on Derby Day, (R8 thru R12).
I’ll single Legend of Time in the 9th and Fierceness in the 12th.
I’ll play five in the 8th, five in the 10th and four in the 11th. This $.50 cent ticket will cost $60.00 dollars.
Edit to say, I’ll play five in the 11th (not four), which will increase the cost to $62.50.
“Man, what are you doing here?”
Check out #22-Mugatu in the second also-eligible spot. The $14,000 son of Blofeld is only a Maiden winner. 1 for 12 overall and 0 for 3 on dirt. Beaten handily by Encino and Epic Ride at 68-1 on synthetic at Turfway in the Battaglia Memorial. Beaten handily by Sierra Leone, Just a Touch, and Epic Ride at 181-1 on dirt in the Bluegrass at Keenland. I can understand an owner getting “Derby Fever”, but………………well, let’s just leave it at that.
Bottom line: I think he has a heck of a chance if he gets in.
Maybe I’m trying a bit too hard to find a reason for Fierceness’ losses, yet after reviewing those races, i wonder if he doesn’t like to be held back.
To my untrained eyes, it didn’t seem like he was much bothered by the bit of trouble he encountered in those races. One race he was strongly held back at one point, and the other he wanted to go, but Johnny had a firm hold on him for some time. I get why that is done. He seemed to lose interest afterwards.
I think he just wants to run his race and doesn’t like being told otherwise. Johnny appeared to keep him in check in other races, but nothing that may discourage him.
Maybe I’m looking too hard, but it just doesn’t appear to me that the bit of trouble was it.
I think clearing Domestic Product (Irad) could be problematic for Fierceness. Also Track Phantom (12j and Encino (9) could keep Fierceness wide or make JV use him more than he wants. I know Pletcher wanted an outside post but I’m not sure it’s going to work out that well.
“If you discard the speed ratings and go by his record, his fight, and how much ability you think he may have, he would be a win candidate. But he would have to make a huge improvement facing far better horses than he’s been running against.”
He is the one.
I hope you are right Counter Point. The fact that he is a January foal would usually indicate he has less room for improvement. But the “counter point” to that is the fact that he is by Ghostzapper, whose foals normally are later developing, suggesting that he might just be coming into his best racing now. Workouts indicate the same.
Thorpedo Anna’s life is a miracle, her mother was not expected two survive her premature birth, and resulting leg deformity ….now the $40K purchase stands on the precipice of Oaks victory….
Weather forecast for Friday and Saturday becoming more defined.
Thunderstorms and rain Friday, steady rain overnight. Thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
Models pretty much agree across all weather sites.
Percent chance rain increased from 40% to 60% for Saturday.
Typical this time of the year from moisture feeding up from Gulf. Western Kentucky is on the cusp of the system. Could go either way. If trends east more rain, if it trends west less rain.
Hate to see these horses running on sloppy track! Justify’s Derby was the worst.
Pls no rain!!! If rain then I guess back to drawing board. Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone will be in play for sure.
Fake news!!!!
LOL.
I watched the 2018 race yesterday, and I can’t believe how dark it was that day! I had forgotten.
It as was awful. A friend attended the race and she posted photos during the day and before the face on FB. It was a deluge of rain…a frog strangler.
This is so deflating. Even if I was rooting for a horse who loves the slop, I’d still root for a fast track
Honor Marie is blossoming. Even in his gallop today, he looked great. He’s full of confidence …
He ran second on the slop at CD in his second race, but I’m sure it’s not his cup of tea
I saw him on the track this AM in video, he was staring right at the camera. He looks so good.
Can’t find any vid on YouTube. Where are you all watching from?
I saw HM video on Twitter
Twitter
He’s so full of himself, thinks he’s king of the track, lol
Good to know!!
Somebody on the morning work show forgot to push that green button.
You tube problem. Facebook feed is working.
Coffee is on. Let the show begin. Good morning racing fans.
A lot of Arkansas family loving, for Mystik Dan, whose co-owner and breeder passed last May 4th…
Well, if he can repeat that Southwest effort, their love will be greeted with coins. Lots of them. My brother was looking at Dan just on paper and was thinking he was only an underneath play. I made him watch that Southwest again. It was a powerful acceleration the likes of which we have not seen in the lane from any other and after good fractions were set.
50 years later, Danny Gargan gets dealt a similar hand as Woody Stephens whose Cannonade drew way inside and the much higher regarded half of his entry, Judger drew way outside…
Brad C has horses entered in 8 races on Friday and 10 more on Saturday. Multiple entrants in some of those races. I wonder what he’s pulling down a year?
I’m bleary eyed from looking at the Form all day. The Oaks is more wide open than I thought. I hope that rain doesn’t ruin an excellent Friday card.
Tapit Trice is scheduled to make an appearance on Friday. People call him overrated and even a plodder. While he wasn’t the best of his class, he did pretty well. He won the Grade I Bluegrass before running 4 more Grade I races to finish his season. A troubled 7th in the Derby. He got nosed for 2nd in the Belmont by Forte after getting goofy in the stretch. 5th in the Haskell over a track that wasn’t for him before running 3rd in the Travers. The horses that beat him in those 4 Grade I races were Mage, Arcangelo, Geaux Rocket Ride, and Arcangelo again. No disgrace. Cut the big gray some slack. Irad Ortiz takes over on Friday.
Tapit Trice was in front of both Forte and Mage in the Travers Stakes. I wouldn’t be wasting my time with the thoughts of anyone who thinks Tapit Trice is a plodder or overrated.
PS: add National Treasure to the list that Tapit Trice was in front of in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes.
Baseball fans, the Atlanta Braves are smoking it this year. Another World Series on the horizon?
Ohio State Assembly is going to try and pass a resolution to out Pete Rose in the Baseball Hall of Fame. I am all for that. For everything there is a season and that includes forgiveness.
Strider is out for the year. This loss will catch up to them evidently.
Excuse me….eventually.
Possibly but the Braves organization is a strong one and has more options than the other teams for a replacement. Time will tell I guess.
I think it’ll be ok. There was some buzz last year that the best fit for Strider could be as a reliever as his career progresses, especially when you look at 2nd and 3rd time through the line up. Elder looks pretty good (said the lady who listens to the radio broadcast).
It is a looooong season!
Katy, I am going to stay optomistic!
Sticking with picks too in Derby!
How about Shoeless Joe Jackson as well?
I am not knowledgeable about SJJ other than the movie “Field of Dreams”.
In my humble opinion, the wildcard in the race is T O Password.
As Steve mentioned, it is a challenge to assess a horse off only two races.
He was on the track briefly this morning and I did not see the sweating and lathering that I observed yesterday. He was tossing his head, dancing around a bit and seemed to be ready for a good gallop.
Again as Steve mentioned he was able to open up a sizable lead in the Fukuryu.
Couple of questions though. Does he have an extra gear and does he have the stamina to hold his speed for the added distance. His race in Japan was clockwise, American races are counter clockwise.
Lynda, I’d say no to the extra gear, yes’s, to the stamina/speed in Japan for the extra distance but no when up against US speed and the clockwise/anti clockwise is not a worry.
With that said, you never know until they try it.
Davids there are people who follow Japan more closely than I do who felt that Ramjet was a better candidate for the Derby.
His connections committed quickly to the Derby but got bumped by TOP.
On paper I would have to agree with that and his form sheet indicates he is faster than TOP and he has had more races.
Hopefully we will get to see some works in this upcoming week from TOP.
Rain is still on the forecast and if it comes to fruition two training days might not be feasible.
He is not in my top 5 and I cannot see bumping down one of those 5 based on what I have seen and read so far on TOP.
Unless something really unsettling comes up this week, I see this race coming down to Fiercest, Sierra Leone, Forever Young and Honor Marie as they head for home. I am also endeared to Resilence and West Saratoga…how can you not hope for a good showing for his trainer.
So that is pretty much it.
Lots of drama, lots of what if’s, so many horses to cheer for. I think it will be an exciting 150th anniversiary race. Just keep ’em safe and happy!
Totally agree, I was looking forward to see Ramjet running in the Derby then T O Password’s connections decided to accept the trip to Churchill Downs so that was that.
Please don’t rain on everyone’s parade, all the time and effort is somewhat lost in an ocean of mud. I’m actually working overtime so the next couple of days will be free to absorb all the atmosphere and excitement. The two day cards are tremendous and then there’s Newmarket with the 2,000 & 1,000 Guineas.
Chasing Freedom, Fierceness. Honor Marie and Sierra Leone are my top 4 with Forever Younger a real danger. As you say, there are so many to like. Safe trips and Sunshine is all you really want and need. Best of luck.
PS, sounds like Wootton Basset is earning his keep a Coolmore.
I find him to be an absolutely gorgeous horse and of course he goes back to Secretariat.
Yes, Lynda, couldn’t agree more on Wootton Bassett. His progeny will only get better and better. Siyouni and Wootton Bassett are my two pin up boys in Europe.
Tragic loss of Shiskin. Cast in stall, fractured hind leg and euthanized.
I hope this isn’t overkill. My brother always tells me that I put too much effort into the most uninteresting things. I’ve been hobbled recently, so for me I’m all Derby 24/7 as of late. I get a question on my mind and I just have to find the answer. Hopefully some of you might find it interesting.
I looked up all of the Derby Charts that I could find with at least 17 starters. We all know that post 17 has a goose egg in the Win column, but I was interested in putting that number in a little more context. We can find how many winners we should have expected by adding up the probabilities of all of the starters from post 17… so that’s what I did.
I found that we would have expected 2.4 wins from post 17 with about a 90% chance of having at least 1 winner. So, post 17 having a goose egg at this point in time is about a 9-1 proposition. The striking losses from post 17 were Arazi, Point Given, Irish War Cry and Forty Niner. Anyway, here is the list along with probabilities. Some back in the day were parts of entries, so I estimated in those cases and I think the estimates should be fairly close.
2023 Man Hero 0.041
2022 Classic Causeway 0.01
2021 Super Stock 0.022
2020
2019 Spinoff 0.017
2018 Solomini 0.012
2017 Irish War Cry 0.141
2016 Mor Spirit 0.06
2015 Far Right 0.02
2014 Candy Boy 0.08
2013 Frac Daddy 0.032
2012 Done Talking 0.02
2011 Soldat 0.065
2010 Dublin 0.038
2009 Nowhere to Hide 0.017
2008 Cowboy Cal 0.02
2007 Stormello 0.018
2006 Lawyer Ron 0.068
2005 Don’t get Mad 0.027
2004 Pro Prado 0.016
2003
2002 Easy Grades 0.018
2001 Point Given 0.29
2000 High Yield 0.065
1999 Vicar 0.09
1998
1997
1996 Editors Note 0.075
1995 Ski Captain 0.014
1994
1993 Corby 0.022
1992 Arazi 0.42
1991
1990
1989
1988 Forty Niner 0.12
1987 No More Flowers 0.015
1986
1985
1984 Biloxi Indian 0.02
1983 Luv a Libra 0.014
1982 Cassaleria 0.04
1981 Top Avenger 0.014
1974 Triple Crown 0.016
1971 Eastern Fleet 0.12
1970 Corn off t Cobb 0.06
1959 The Chosen One 0.015
1956 Countermand 0.07
1954 Mel Leavitt 0.015
1951 Hall of Fame 0.06
1946 Hampden 0.12
I did the same thing for the #2 post. Since I think that those very inside post positions are only a potential issue in large fields, I only checked Derby’s that had at least 17 runners (made it easy since I was already looking at the #17 pp). Prior to 1970 there weren’t that many fields with 17 or more runners. Cannonade won in 1974 from post #2 as part of an entry that went off at 3-2 favorites and there hasn’t been one since (in a field of 17 or more) with Curlin, Technology, Golden Derby, Carpe Diem, Millenium Wind, Ice Box, Play Fellow and Aptitude the notable losers at under 12-1
With the 2’s – Ice Box should have won none of the others.
Jim, I think your post is very interesting! Although I think the points leaders (and thus likely favorites) are deserving and working like champions, they each have quirks that made me look at the rest of the field for options. And although history really never does repeat itself in horse racing, I like it anyway… so I enjoyed revisiting the careers of some wonderful racehorses who seemed sure to win the Derby, and did not.
Sierra Leone physically reminds me of Curlin and Point Given, although not in racing style. Just in being the most striking, muscular, dominant horse in the field. His come from behind running style, combined with the tendency to lug in and crowd whatever other horse is already near the rail in the lane, makes me think that traffic is his biggest enemy. He may even be his own worst enemy if he interferes with an opponent’s run or chances. But like the colts above, I suspect that we might see his best in the second two legs of the TC.
When I asked myself which hapless favorite was my Fierceness comparison, Arazi was the one I remembered being SO hyped. Again, not the same running style as Fierceness, but similarly impressive, dominant Juvenile performances (with the ‘24 Florida Derby looking a lot like Arazi’s Juvenile)! I also see physical similarities between Fierceness and Arazi – whippet-like and agile in build, with exceptional turn of foot.
What a bizarre coincidence that my historical failed-bid colts broke from either 2 or 17, if not exactly coinciding with the runners I likened them to.
My post isn’t as good as your original for sure. However, this is a forum where we sometimes like to try to beat favorites, so here’s my contribution!
Thanks Jim for all the work the data gives you a better picture of who and why No. 17 lost. I wasn’t surprised with the the loss of Arazi, knowing his European history quite well, nor Irish War Cry, Point Decision was a conundrum, with Forty Niner, maybe, but I thought Winning Colors would do what she did.
Since 1975 in Derby’s with at least 17 runners, Post #2 and #17 are 0-66. That sounds terrible, but there are only a few that I would have liked that much anyway.
I think a lot of these type of records that get quoted at Derby time are way over rated. Pletcher’s 2 of 64 sounds awful, but his horses would have only been expected to win 2.8 Derby’s based on the cumulative probability of his entrants each year. If Fierceness were to win this year, he will have won almost exactly the amount of Derby’s as expected. I’ll probably be betting against him, but I’m a little bit scared 🙂
This was a good process the probability puts everything into perspective overall 9/1 with no wins is very probable.
Fierceness’ #17 post reminded me of American Pharoah’s 2015 Derby win coming out of #18. This could be the way for Repole’s colt. AP got a good break and angled over to flank the pacesetters on the outside and around the turn made his move. Today, Asmussen said he’d be “very surprised” if Track Phantom was on the lead. So, assuming TO PW and Dornoch are out in front, I can see Fierceness saddling up to the far outside of the leaders. The ringer for me in this scenario is Forever Young. We know he doesn’t like kickback & likes to be wide. Where will he settle? Do we think Dornoch & TO will burn up the pace?
Shelly, AP had post 15 from the auxiliary gate in an 18-horse field.
The numbers/aux gate don’t really matter IMO. AP still came from the far outside like Fierceness will. That was my comparison.
I corrected your error about AP’s post position. I wasn’t commenting on your comparison.
For Sierra Leone, he’d have to be ridden like Mage did last year- from the rail in the back and then working his way through traffic to the far outside, going wide to run down the leaders. But, like Steve has said, he’d have to outrun Fierceness even in this scenario. (Of course, if Fierceness is on and got a good break.) It seems as if all roads go through Fierceness. If he doesn’t fire, it seems like it’s wide open.
Not looking for Fierceness to prevail.
After Fierceness drew p/p 17, I can picture Todd Pletcher rolling his eyes, and muttering a few cuss words. With Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez in the irons, anything is possible, but if Fierceness doesn’t break will, Johnny V will have to use best riding skills to put Fierceness in position for the win. The same can be said for Resilience, if doesn’t break well, he could be up against it as well.
Bottom line, it’s back to the drawing board trying to handicap this year’s Derby.
Hopefully, Mr. Haskin can provide more insight on a handicapping strategy that will make sense to his loyal followers.
You’ve got the floor Steve. The ball is in your court. 🙂
If he doesnt break it doesnt matter what post he’s in. And if he does break I think he is dangerous from post 17. Johnny V can see what everyone is doing and if he decides to go for the lead there isnt a horse in this field who can outrun him.
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
Good points. If he does break well, the next question, will Fierceness carry his impressive speed the Classic distance.
As D. Wayne Lukas once said, “they can all run a mile and quarter, it’s just a question on how fast they get there”.
I’m looking forward to your “Handicapping Strategy” on Monday or Tuesday.
Many thanks for all you do.
Steve I agree 100%, and had he drawn inside the speed they likely would’ve had to run faster, early, it’s a quarter mile to the turn, should Fierceness break well they are all in trouble! And if he DOESN’T break well it matters not where he is drawn, the break is all-important!
In total agreement Steve. Thank you.
Mr. Haskin, what’s your take on Forever Young’s post and chance?
Steve Haskin–I agree that an outside post is great for Johnny V and Fierceness. And I think that post 2 is good for a closer like Sierra Leone.
Plus someone has to break the post 17 “curse” and it could be Fierceness. Just like Big Brown broke the hex on post 20.
5/2 on Chrome was a gift, I think the same about Fierceness, he lays over these horses….
Matthew, you could have bet your house on California Chrome, with confidence. I wouldn’t be betting the house on Fierceness.
Fierceness might blaze away out of the gate and it’s ‘good night, Vienna’ to the rest but with a stumble out of the gate the ‘iceberg’ is right in front of him.
I’ll be betting on Mystik Dan and have my futures on Honor Marie, but keying Fierceness on top of exactas and tris
Fierceness – I don’t think his post change anything with how connections plan on riding him. The only knock is due to the post he will get used more early on. They going for the lead. Bad break then it’s game over for Fierceness.
Dornoch – it’s a tough spot for him. I just don’t see his chances at post 1.
Forever Young – got a great post next to another Japan horse inside of him. He has decent break away speed I think he will get his preferred outside lane either mid or near the stalker.
Honor Marie – having Ben Curtis on board he should be able to position HM in the right spot without using too much energy. I think HM will be closer than usual.
In my opinion the problems with the KD go deeper than the draw.
The track is only 80 feet wide as compared to the track in Meydan which is almost 100 feet wide.
Not to continually talk about Japan but they did a 20 year study on their tracks and determined the issues that could contribute to injuries and breakdowns and configured their dirt tracks to reduce the sharpness of the curves and made changes to the banking of the tract, switched to a surface that is mostly sand and they use special equipment to even out the tract that is an automated system.
Farm tractors like the John Deere’s CD uses are heavy and will leave depressions in the soil no mater how many times you run over it.
I do not know what the name of the implement is that CD uses but it looks similar to a box harrow that farmers use before planting.
I do not know the history of CD but in the early years there were no gates. A rope was dropped to start the race and the fields were much smaller. Actual starting gates were not used until around the Depression as I recall.
I had hoped that the single piece starting gate would eliminate some of the problems of the auxiliary gate.
However, based on a couple of photos I have seen the 20 horse gate it barely fits on the track and looks to be at an angle.
I know this is probably not the response you were looking for.
I do seem to recall a time when the trainers would let it be known what their preferred gate was and if more than one trainer requested the same gate, they would draw out of a box.
Or then again I might have dreamed that LOL.
I actually dread the start of the Derby. That Calvary Stampede of horses rolling to the left like a wall of water coming from a collapsed dam scares the jaheebies out of me. These jockeys must have nerves of steel to ride under those conditions. And the horses…how many times has a horse who broke well on the inside been bumped or hit so hard they fall to their knees.
Lynda, good stuff…as always. Agree with your comments about the start. It reminds me of the Omak (‘Suicide’) Stampede which they run every summer up here in my neck of the woods (Washington state). In fact, they’ve been doing this for 90 years now.
Sorry this was a reply under the wrong post. Was intended for Winston’s post below.
Hi, Lynda. Take a look at the replays of the 2019 and the 2021 derbies, both with 19-horse fields — but the ’19 with two gates and the ’21 with one gate. I think you’ll see a difference. I don’t recall trainers naming their preferred post and drawing from a box if more than one trainer preferred the same post. It sounds kinda crazy. Ha ha!
Hi WW.
I have, did both races, been awhile though.
I do feel that single start gate is big improvement on the auxiliary gate.
However and if my memory serves me correctly, it was the first year the new gate was used that I noticed it barely fit and was at an angle.
In principle I do agree with you about field size especially on this narrow track but chances are slim and none that CDI will change it Too much revenue generated.
Guess you know that for the 100th anniversiary there were 23 horses.
Wicked One it’s the other way around—-had Fierceness drawn inside he would have had to run faster, early—-to fend off the speed drawn outside him….by drawing outside the other speed, they don’t need to fly out of there!
roger johnson WINSTON WOLFE I agree with points you made about KD draw. The point you make the hoses run more is what the racing needs . RUN MORE THANK YOU AND GOOD LUCK. RJJ
I think Sierra Leone will be fine. for a closer this may be even better as he will save ground and he doesn’t mind the dirt. Unless connections planning to change tactics and have SL place more forward than usual.
I think Sierra Leone drew poorest on the field, as he has no early foot, and could be victim of the mad move to the inside, by the large field…he could get shuffled further back than they wanted …
Fierceness is the best entrant in the field for the 150th running of the KD.
I have listened to and read the above at nauseum. It is imperative that those harboring the above notion, divorce themselves from the fixation on speed figures and sheet numbers. This divorce will allow for a more realistic and meaningful assessment of which entrant is the best in the field for the 150th running of Kentucky Derby.
Sierra Leone has defeated the following entrants:
Domestic Product – Finished ahead of Fierceness in the Holy Bull
Dornoch
Just A Touch
Catching Freedom – Defeated Just Steel and Mystik Dan in Smarty Jones
Track Phantom
Resilience – Defeated Society Man in Wood Memoria
Honor Marie
Two of the 7 entrants that Sierra Leone has defeated, have in turn defeated four other entrants that he has not race against. Therefore, and by extension, Sierra Leone has defeated a little over half the field.
Fierceness has defeated the following entrants in 3YO KD Preps:
Catalytic
Grand Mo The First
Muth – defeated Just Steel and Mystik Dan
Only 2 entrants have been actually defeated Fierceness. Two others were defeated by a Muth whom he destroyed in the BCJ.
Given the above: how is the entrant that defeated seven in the field, three of which have either defeated or finished ahead another 4, is not considered the best in the field?
By what measure doesn’t the above supersede any speed figures and sheet numbers?
There can be a likely winner and there is the best in the field. It’s a difference with a distinction.
Considering how Dornoch will be flying out of the gate, from his rail post….Sierra Leone really drew poorly, he’s the defacto rail horse, with no early speed he’s going to have horses crossing over on him and could be shuffled further behind….
Both horses are up against it.
If he has no early speed wont they be crossing over in front of him? If he had an outside post he would have come across the entire track to get to where he is starting from now
Once again, the method of the draw rears its ugly head. If the points system were to be used to its best advantage, it would determine SEEDING like in nearly all sports championships. I don’t believe that the purpose of the draw is to level the playing field. Fans want to see the best horses run without being disadvantaged before the race begins.
It seems so simple. The points system determines the 20 horses in the gate. It could also represent the order in which connections make their choices for post position. This year, the connections of Sierra Leone would pick first, Fierceness second, Catching Freedom third, and so on. This method may also put an end to trainers being content to just get in with enough points. If they knew that the all-important post position was dependent on their ranking, they might run in at least one more prep.
I sent this suggestion to a CD exec several years ago. He gave me a courteous reply but said they believe the current system is fair to all. What do you think?
I think whatever Marsellus Wallace thinks is all we need to know. That said, I like the draw. It adds some extra intrigue and certainly has it’s advantages and disadvantages but I don’t like stacking the deck to help the favorites. I would like them to go back to just picking the horse and letting the connections pick their position. A little more strategery involved and adds more intrigue to the process. I have appreciated your comments here. Good luck with your wagers.
Thanks, El K. It does add intrigue for sure. Plus the consternation. I don’t see it as stacking the deck. I see it as earning the position, like an NFL team getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs because they had the best record in the regular season. Good luck to you, and may all the runners have safe trips.
I also wonder if it might encourage the international horses to come over earlier for domestic preps, which honestly seems to me the actual way for them to get a Derby win.
Indeed, Katy. I don’t think that the Japan and European paths have worked out as hoped. Foreign raced horses should earn their place in the gate in the same way as the U.S. based horses – the way Mandarin Hero and Forever Young did.
Winston I wonder if “seeding” the contenders by how many points they earned wouldn’t end up with horses peaking too soon .. It’s one thing to earn enough points to make the field, another thing altogether, to earn your post position, by race performance….
I’m not sure about that, Matthew. It didn’t seem to have that effect 20 years ago and more when Derby runners (and winners) had four or more preps in their 3yo season. Now it’s two or three preps to the Derby. The best trainers will have their horses peak at the Derby regardless of a difference of one prep race.
Good point, I guess they would be racing more, to secure a better post position, and should a horse qualify early—owners/trainers would need to decide on another race to secure a desired post draw so I guess they would run more . ..
Thanks, Matthew. If a trainer believes he has a Derby horse, he or she will map out a prep schedule for the dual purpose of bringing the horse to top form in the Derby and securing a good post.
I disagree. Handicapping a race is always about controlling chaos. Like any other race, the draw is part of racing luck. Taken to its extreme, we could have each entrant do an individual 10 furlong run around Churchill. Fastest time is derby winner.
Todd, you are free to take it to an extreme. I’ll stick to a reasonable proposal.
Yes, if they made it a points determination, then there goes “The Luck of the Draw”…..
Winston, racing is all about the ‘luck of the draw’ tampering with that starts to detract from the excitement which has been going on for centuries.
Imagine if the King or Queen of England had first pick of the draw for the Epsom Derby just because they could?
4:25 Coffee is on.
T O Royal owned by Tomoya Ozasa wins the Tenno Sho (turf) in Japan.
By Leontes (King Kamehameha) out of Meisho Ohi (Manhattan Cafe by Sunday Silence).
Same owner as T O Password whose dam is by King Kamehameha.
T O Password on track early this morning. Full of energy, prancing, tugging at bit.
Largest Field: 23 in 1974 (100th running)
Smallest Field: 3 in 1892 and 1905
Total Starters: 1,938 from 1875 through 2020
Avg. Field Size: 13.3 from 1875 through 2019
Fields of 20 or More: 21
Fields of 15 or More: 71
Fields of 14 or Less: 78
Romantic Warrior wins his 3rd QEll!
Imagine how wide open this race would be if Fierceness was out. I’m not wishing it or anything. I just find it really interesting how much it would change the dynamic of this race. Nearly every horse would have a shot at landing in the tri.
The entries are up for both Friday and Saturday at Churchill. Big fields. Only one race each day with less than 10 horses. Good races. Lots of stars in action. No Knightsbridge though. I think that the Forms are available as well, although I didn’t try to buy one yet. All we need is some good weather and Fast & Firm.
When Resilience drew P/P #19, I sank down in my chair. However, that outside post could work to his advantage. Junior Alvarado won’t have to worry about getting pin-balled between horses in the early going, which happens quite often in the Derby.
If Resilience breaks well, he could use his speed to get into a good position going into the first turn. If he can manage to be running 6th or 7th during the backstretch run, I like his chances when the real racing begins in the late stretch run. I believe Mott has this colt primed to be at his best on Derby Day.
With respect to Catching Freedom, (my other Futures prospect), he drew well at P/P 4, and will just drop back in the early going, and make his usual closing move during the stretch run.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of bombers, like Dornoch (20-1), Track Phantom (20-1), Honor Marie (20-1), T O Password 30-1, or Catalytic (30-1) upset the apple cart.
Based on the past winning post positions, four out of the five afore mentioned colts are breaking from those posts.
Post Position #5 (10 wins) Catalytic
Post Position #10 (9 wins) T O Password
Post Position #7 (8 wins) Honor Marie
Post Position #1 (8 wins) Dornoch
Position # 8 bodes well for Just a Touch (10-1) with 9 wins at that post position.
Just for the hell of it, I’ll key JAT on top, with Honor Marie, Dornoch, T O Password and Catalytic underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots in a $1.00 Superfecta P/W.
Safe trips to all.
I hope you’re right about Resilience, Bill. I’ve been very impressed by how he looks on the track in the mornings.
My selections are between HM and Forever Young. Good posts for both.
Love the 7 post for Honor Marie
Exacta for me Honor Marie and Forever Young.
I rarely bet, lol – if my favorite wins, I’d be too excited to care about the money!
I might place a small bet on HM…good luck!
Inspirational backstory about Larry Demeritt, trainer for West Saratoga who has been battling cancer since 1996 on BH.
Very humbling to read what he has been through and how still gets up every morning and goes to the track
Puts a totally different perspective on just living the dream to get into the Derby and if you win, then for someone like Mr D, that is icing on the cake?
Yes, Lynda. That was a great story. There was also a nice feature about trainer and horse on one of the TV broadcasts. I’m not sure if it was Fox Sports or FanDuel TV. I’ll be rooting for both of them. If West Saratoga wins, it would take the sting out of my losing bets. 🙂
I loved that he drove the horse down from Lexington himself. It made me wonder the last time some of the big guys did something like that, and whether they could back a trailer if they had to!
They wouldn’t do it themselves! Ha!
Sure could be wrong but watching all the other races of Forever Young especially Dubai, he will fly out of that gate to get 4-5-6 into first turn, move down the back stretch and move to 2-3 path or so and get an excellent trip to middle of far turn. He loves to be 1-2-3 going into stretch and if he is a great horse, he has a great chance down the stretch with his spirit and heart. IMO often wrong analysis, his style is perfect if he gets 4-5-6 into first tun. Sakai will move him fast out of the gate. Looking forward to an exciting race.
They will try and get the position which I think they will. If he gets the clear where they want to be at I think it’s game over.
No Knightsbridge in the Pat Day Mile.
Tuscan Sky with Edwin Maldanado??? Was that horse sold or something?
No Speak Easy, no Mindframe either, the luster of the race has vanished really. Oh well.
Mindframe is entered in an undercard allowance race on Derby Day that includes the Cornishman (a promising Brad Cox horse who broke his maiden last out).
Thanks Armaan, it came through my email yesterday. I’m looking forward to his return along with Charge It in the Westchester Stakes at Belmont@The Big A and Trice in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs both on Friday, among others.
Exiting long weekend with the Kentucky Oaks Card, 2,000 Guineas Card, Kentucky Derby Card, and the 1,000 Guineas Card.
Forget what I said about Tuscan Sky. That’s not true. An error over at HRN. I think they need some proof readers over there. That horse isn’t entered at all that I can see.
Forever Young drew very well. I think he can hit the board.
We all know that the #17 is winless, but does anyone know how many times the Derby has been run with a #17 post? I bet Steve Haskin can answer that.
I mean that I know it’s not 0 for 149. 0 for 30? 0 for 40?
Sierra Leone will be OK, but he’ll need things to workout perfectly.
Just a Touch drew well if he’s good enough. Same for Encino, Chasing Freedom, and Domestic Product.
Judging from the lede in the drf story tonight, I think it’s 44.
For Fierceness the curse of the 17 hole is not guaranteed just yet. For any horse inside him who scratches he would move in 1 spot. Last year Derma Sotogake drew post 17 but ended up starting in post 14. Alot can happen in the next 6 days.
True.
I think American Pharoah drew 17 but a defection put in him 16
Stand to be corrected of course.
I was thinking the same thing. We don’t really know which post he will actually start from. But if it is 17, I see that more as a superstition than a real problem. There’s no logical reason why 17 should be more difficult than 16 or 18. And there should be less traffic out there. I wasn’t unhappy with his post. But wherever he is, it’s important that he doesn’t get shut off at the start like he did in the Holy Bull.
Fletcher said he likes pp 17 and if there is a scratch he would not move down inside.
That’s interesting. I hadn’t heard that, and I didn’t realize he would have a choice.
Ha ha!
Good post I think for Forever Young and Honor Marie.
Not good for Resiliance, Sierra Leone and Fierceness.
These are my 5.
Waiting patiently to hear from Steve on Monday or Tuesday.
Love it!!!! Woot!!! Yes!!!
Hi Steve ,
Looking at all horse workouts and previous races . Focusing on Stronghold now .
Is Santa Anita track synthetic and possibly faster . Just trying to compare that track and speed vs East Coast tracks. As you mentioned Stronghold has beaten some great Baffert horses … he may be a sleeper …
Fierceness draws outside all other speed, has a quarter mile to get into the outside stalking position, and if Johnny thinks they’re not going fast enough he could go get the lead— fastest horse….he drew perfect—wont get pinched by outside horses, drawing inside—If he breaks clean —he won’t be pressed to go too fast early….
I just watched the Big Brown Kentucky Derby win to consider what Fierceness is up against him. Johnny Velasquez will have to use Fierceness early to get position which is his trademark.
Davids, I watched that replay also. Big Brown had the advantage of the outside post. I think that helped him in getting out smoothly. He was just so much the best. Even with the wide trip, he won by nearly five lengths.
Winston, I think they’ll go for the lead with Fierceness, and he has the speed to get it without too much trouble. From there it depends on what some others want to do. They won’t just let him sail away to a sunset win.
Bill Mott got bad draws in the Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.
Agree about Resiliance.
Not as much to overcome in Oaks with 14 horse field.
Honor Marie connections delighted with the 7, what they wanted.
Such great people…just thrilled to be there!
Yes, Lynda, a good draw for Honor Marie. Can’t decide on who drew better between Fierceness and Sierra Leone both look bad on paper.
With Chasing Freedom I’m reasonably happy with post 4. Forever Young got a lucky draw, he should be able to stay outside away from the kickback without losing too much ground.
Mind you, once they jump, anything can happen.
Devil or the deep blue sea comes to mind about Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
Just glad Johnny V is up.
True that, Johnny Velasquez might just provide the fans with a tour de force of riding the best horse in a race.
Horrible draw for Fierceness
Lynda King: Fierceness might just break the 17 post hex. No one was supposed to win from post 20 and Big Brown did it first.
Terri, I believe there had been only 11 starters from post 20 prior to Big Brown in 2008.
Honor Marie got a great post! Say, what do you all think about Just F Y I’s draw of post 13 for the Oaks?
I’d say it this way arlingtonfan, Tarifa and Thorpedo Anna with their posts got a couple of lengths on Just F Y I and Leslie’s Rose.
I really like Tarifa to win with all the other fillies above a close second.
Thanks, Davids. I’ve been debating between Thorpedo Anna and Just F Y I. Using their respective post positions as a tiebreaker, I think I’ll probably go with Anna.
arlingtonfan, too close to call between Just F Y I and Thorpedo Anna for me. I’m looking for an outsider to split the big fillies as that often happens in the Oaks.
Tarifa is my top pick for the Oaks.
Yes, Lynda, Tarifa will be able to follow the swift Thorpedo Anna all the way around without being held back too much as in her previous races. Tarifa’s explosive speed down the stretch should get her home in time.
Bad draw for Fierceness, at P/P 17.
Never been a winner from Post 17 and I think since 1989, posts 1,2 and 3 are like 1-118 or something
1988, Forty-Niner took second out of 17.
Post 11 is PERFECT for Forever Young.
It seemed like his connections were pleased, as well. The good vibes keep flowing. You go, Forever Young.
Yes really like post for Forever Young.
Tarifa, Leslie’s Rose and Thorpedo Anna are my picks for the Oaks.
Will be thrilled if any of the three win.
After the 2 wins by Japanese horses(Marche Lorraine & Loves Only You) at the 2021 Del Mar Breeders Cup we were told that it would be just the start of many wins in our Classic races. It hasn’t really happened. Not yet. The Japanese horses have done very well in the UAE Derby. Forever Young being one of them. Is he better than Derma Sotogake who ran 6th in last year’s Derby? He’ll need to be. Maybe he’s more of a Master Fencer who also ran 6th in 2019. Mandarin Hero, 12th last year? Crown Pride, 13th in 2022?
I think Forever Young is going to get bet. Everyone loves an undefeated horse. He could be one of only three horses under 10-1 this year.
Frankly, I like his chances to fill out the tri or super more than to win. I also think that an inside draw for Forever Young would be disastrous. He likes to run wide. We’ll find out more about his chances in about an hour or so.
Listening to Chad Brown’s comments after today’s workout for Domestic Product and Sierra Leone, it’s clear to me that he sees Sierra Leone as his best shot. Brown seems confident in both, but called Sierra Leone a special talent. He should be for $2.6million.
Chad Brown also seems very excited about Ways and Means for the Oaks. Apparently, she worked a blazing 4-furlongs yesterday which he wasn’t too happy about. However, Brown said that after watching a replay of the work, he felt better about it and that the track was very fast on Friday. Did he mean it or was he rationalizing the fast time? One thing that he did say was that Ways and Means has found trouble in 3 races and that he wouldn’t mind seeing her on the lead next Friday. Hmmmm!
Watching Encino and Catching Freedom work together, Encino is the more striking animal IMO. But looks aren’t everything. Catching Freedom looks more professional and Encino seems like a bit of a troublemaker though talented. I’ve read that Catching Freedom isn’t a great worker, but comes flying in the lane.
I like the draw for Encino!
It seems like the weather forecast for Louisville changes every day. No different than any year I guess.
Looks like Epic Ride and Mugatu will be the also eligibles. Mugatu? Seriously?
Just looked at the total leaderboard. About six horses have withdrawn that had more points than Mugatu.
Was hoping Seize the Grey might get in, have a friend who owns a share in him. Heis going to the Pat Day Mile.
If my memory is correct Rich Strike got in with 14 points which is what Mugatu has.
Hooves crossed that there will be no scratches or withdrawals by Friday.
This is turning out to be a heck of a race. All top contenders and even the rest of the fields all seem to be thriving and healthy. One more week!!!
I know! Wishing and hoping the field is set!!!
I haven’t liked so many of the colts in the field since the 2007 Derby. Stay in, everyone… at least until Friday!
Latest Louisville Forecast:
Tuesday – 59% chance rain in the AM, clearing in afternoon
Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms 38% afternoon, 70% rain and thunderstorms overnight.
Friday – 67% scattered thunder storms, high 77 considerable cloudiness. Winds 10-15
Fri night 60% chance rain showers
Sat – 40% chance showers, Winds 10-15, high 78
I’m doing all that I can to keep rain away from Louisville. But everyone needs to do their part.
I will send you our forecast for next Saturday.
FY does not like kickback so PLEASE no mud!!.
Lynda and Winston, they are predicting am showers for Louisville on May 4 so that’s a positive to hold on to at this stage.
Basically it’s sunny at Newmarket for the 2,000 Guineas on May 4 so good news there, thus far.
If in fact the Churchill track comes up sloppy on Derby Day, I would think the following horses would handle it quite well:
Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Resilience, Track Phantom, Dornoch, Just Steel, Just a Touch, Mystik Dan and possibly Society Man.
Fierceness broke his maiden at Saratoga over a muddy track but didn’t seem to handle the sloppy track at Aqueduct, in the Champagne Stakes. So, the jury is still out how he’ll handle an off track.
T O Password won his Derby Qualifying race on a rainy day.
Today, Endlessly worked 4F, in 47.80, and has been confirmed for the Derby.
He’s won 5 out of 6 races over turf and synthetic tracks and judging by his impressive work over the dirt track at Churchill this morning, I’d venture to say he’ll be just as good on dirt, IMO.
If you’re looking for a longshot to use in the exotics, look no further than Endlessly, currently listed at 50-1 at Caesars.
Maybe Bill ….Trainer was adamant they wanted to run on TURF—this is 100% an owner’s decision, the 94 year old owner, so I cannot blame him! Endlessly will be trying dirt for the first time…he did look good, winning at Turfway—nine of the horses in the Jeff Ruby had never run at Turfway, so there’s questions about who he defeated, I really liked Two Phil’s, last year…..he looked like he was peaking—I’m not getting that same vibe, this year….
I’m using him underneath. He really looks like he can handle the distance and maneuver through a crowd. Takes tactical speed to accelerate into a good position in a full field and he has it. Very important skill set for the derby. And let me be the 100th person to say this but the feeling is CD is a track that turfers don’t mind.
I just came across these odds at Bloodhorse. It says, “Odds provided by TwinspiresDOTcom”. Does Battaglia typically set a morning line before the draw? I don’t recall. Anyway, there are some strange numbers. I realize that the morning line represents a prediction of post-time odds. But 50-1 on T O Password? And 20-1 on Grand Mo the First? Both should be MUCH higher. And he really thinks that the Santa Anita Derby winner will be 30-1? Maybe this isn’t a preliminary ML.
Sierra Leone 7-2
Fierceness 3-1
Catching Freedom 10-1
Stronghold 30-1
Resilience 20-1
Forever Young (JPN) 8-1
Endlessly 50-1
Dornoch 30-1
Just a Touch 12-1
Track Phantom 20-1
West Saratoga 50-1
Just Steel 30-1
Honor Marie 15-1
Domestic Product 50-1
Catalytic 30-1
Society Man 50-1
Mystik Dan 50-1
Encino 30-1
Grand Mo the First 20-1
T O Password (JPN) 50-1
Epic Ride 50-1
Interesting. Will change after the draw?????
There’s a voice in my head telling me that there are pre- and post-draw morning lines. Fortunately, it isn’t telling me to jump onto the third rail.
Surprised Just Steel at 30-1. Considering how strong he finished in the Ark Derby.
He’ll get the nostalgia money.
Thanks for sharing Winston.
Feels like Catching Freedom will take a lot of money.
I would be shocked if Honor Marie is less than 20-1.
The rest looks about right.
Interesting that Gafflione worked Domestic Product in the team drill with Sierra Leone, but it made sense….
And they both looked good, Matthew! Domestic Product showed a lot of energy. Sierra Leone worked within himself.
A shoutout to Dale Romans for being such a gracious host. He’s the only trainer on the grounds at Churchill Downs to offer a horse to help train the Japanese entrant , Forever Young. Dale does the right thing. And he honors his friend and mentor, H. Allen Jerkens, by continuing to do so.
Dale is the best!!!
Thanks Lynda!
Dale is one of the good guys in racing. He’s long been a favorite of mine and even more so since I found out that we share the same birthday.
Wow Dewey. He’s a good guy to share a birthday with.
By the way, Dale also has a farm where he breeds thoroughbreds.
Big Daddy! Big heart. You’ll get your horse one day Dale. I thought you had it in Dullahan. Hang in there.
I loved Roses in May and Paddy O Prado! Does his wife still work horses in the mornings for him? I always thought that was cool.
Just saw Dale in an jnterview. He looks so good after the weight loss!
I just watched an interview with Chad Brown, and he just fell short of declaring that Sierra Leone will not be beaten if he gets a good trip. He doesn’t seem concerned about Fierceness.
He had some positive comments about my 80/1 future wager Domestic Product.
He also just fell short of declaring SL the Triple Crown winner and Horse of the Century.
LOL
Axel Concepion to ride Encino in Derby per Godolphin.
He look really good this morning in the darkness so no surprise he.is going to run. Gorgeous colt.
No Franky?
Thought Frankie already has a mount.
He could have switched given his association with Godolphin.
I’m in agreement with you, Counter Point. It would have been a no brainer for Frankie to opt for Encino over Social? But, then again, Frankie is a class act and had given his word to ride Danny Gargan’s horse.
He is riding Society Man.
Since it was announced several days ago that Frankie had accepted Society Man, maybe Godolphin did not ask him.
I think as a trainer and owner that if a jockey had committed to ride my colt and was offered another horse that said jockey switched to, I would be ticked off.
Lot of people do not like Godolphin for a variety of reasons but I think the organization is a class act.
And Frankie is a class act. I think if Godolphin had asked Frankie would have turned it down.
Just my opinion, really do not know.
Society got a weird draw, but I still like him as an exotic, and think he has potential to be a serious racehorse. He will want to be at the back, so 20 isn’t the end of the world. I find it hard to doubt Frankie.
On the other hand, I love Encino, and I believe there’s good stuff to come from him.
The veterans and young blood-unknown dynamic with riders is super interesting.
I cannot get this field to a top 5, no matter how I try.
I like Encino, but I’m a bit nervous about using the kid to ride him even though he has riden him before. He showed nerves in his interview after winning the Bewitch yesterday on board Chop Chop. I can imagine his demeanor in the biggest race of his young life. I’ll be praying for him to stay focused on the task at hand.
Imagine how 18 year old Stevie Cauthern felt?
But you have a point. Horses are very receptive to what a rider is feeling. If the rider is nervous, maybe a little unsure horses often pick up on that. They can also sense your heartbeat. Humans if excited or nervous usually have an accelerated heart rate and horses can sense that 5 to 10 feet away.
Yes, Lynda, as you stated, horses are very keen to sense human moods, nerves, etc. On the positive side, Encino should be familiar with Alex from previous races together. Heck, even some of the experienced Derby veterans get a few butterflies during the post parade.
I think they all get butterflies before these big races.
Thd fact that he has been on Encino before does give some comfort
If memory serves me right Concepion has ridden this horse before and has ridden him pretty well. For some reason Prat was put on Encino before the Blue Grass but he was scratched the day of the race. Geroux then rode Encino in the Lexington. I would be perfectly happy having Concepion on him for the Derby.
You’re more familiar with Concepcion than I am, Downthestretch, so if you’re happy, then I’m happy. I have noticed that Brad Cox has been giving Alex more mounts recently, so that’s a good sign that Brad has faith in him.
T O Password on track this morning. Track pony in front, workmate next then TOP. Comment from Rosie Naprovnik this is how they group to teach a horse to rate.
TOP was sweating along his neck, taking in all the sights. No other horse sweating this morning, kind of cool with a bit of a breeze. Nerves maybe?
Cantered, neck arched, head tucked. His hooves looked big to me, almost duck feet but could have been camera angle so don’t quote me. Turf horses typically have larger hooves.
Pretty bay color. Hard to get a read on conditioning. He is on the smallish side like Fiereceness and Forever Young.
Seems to have different personality than FY who is so laid back.
Just first impressions based on just a few short videos. Nothing really stood out his first time on track other than the sweat and lather.
Just me talking but if I was flying a horse half way around the world to run in the Kentucky Derby I would have brought the horse in two weeks ago.
He doesn’t look small to me.
It depends on the size of the computer or phone screen.
You are top form today WW.
This is the time before the Derby when extreme silliness sets in.
Lynda, I also was a bit taken back to see TOP sweating on a morning that was cool (around 60) and breezy. If it was nerves, wait till he sees and hears that crowd of 150,000. And yes, why did they wait so long to ship in? I’m not going to use TOP, but I’m glad he’s in to ensure an honest pace.
I was too but then again it might just have been nervous energy. He eas cooped up on a plane then in quarantine and then the long trailer ride to CD.
He did have what looked like a cooler on when he arrived.
Hope he is not spiking a fever or has a digestive upset.
Did not see that he eas lathered up anywhere else (between hind legs for example).
No, I looked at his behind and there was no evidence of sweating. If he’s spiking a fever, we should know before the draw tonight.
I just hope he stays out of everybody else’s way.
Encino and Domestic product worked well.
Sierra Leone seems to be carrying a lot of condition. He looks a shade too heavy for a colt that paddles. My greatest fear for Sierra Leone is injury during the KD caused by his gait defect.
There is focus on the slow races’ Domestic Product exited. Very little mention that Fierceness finishing 3rd in one. They were slow for DP but Fierceness who was slower in one gets a pass.
Maybe you should look into cognitive behavioral therapy for the irrational fear.
My sentimental favorite, to hopefully hit the board under, is Grand Mo the First! Just a name thing, he has not shown enough speed to hang with this bunch but you never know in the Derby. So what’s the connection? My first dog, a beagle, named Cosmo, was always called Mo. Mighty Mo was my first and thus you have it. He was a grand hound and a blast of fun right to the rainbow wire. Gitty up Mo!
Grand Mo The First is a really good looking colt in my opinion.
4:45 Coffee is brewing early today but who could sleep through the Sat. before the Derby workouts. Good morning all. Sierra Leone and DP looked good didn’t they?
Affirmative.
Everyone I saw looked good this morning.
Really have not seen any of the entries do anything off key, all sem to be training well.
i have future bets on 8-10 of the projected runners
and oaks/derby doubles with fyi/lemon muffin and pretty woman with the favs
minus fierceness
every year (since potn/minethatbird)
i pick a horse to
do an F-it
exacta key box/all
this year it’s forever young
with a small saver on the other jap horselet(TM)
I think I may have cracked this case wide open?
I mentioned the other day how awesome Catching Freedom looks physically, so naturally I’ve been watching every video I can find of him. I happened to zoom in closer on the Louisiana Derby and what did I see?
I confirmed both closers ran a very good/strong race. But what I realized looking this time, was that Honor Marie ran the better race. He exerted more energy early, racing 1-2 lengths in front of CF. He also made the first move around the far turn, extending his lead over CF from 1 to 2.5 – 3 lengths. It’s understandable that he got caught, as this was his rebound race. What’s impressive is he stayed on strong to the wire only losing by 1 length. This reminded me of Mage & Forte’s Florida Derby a little bit.
So I’m thinking…
* Love the big improvement 2nd race of 2024. This race pattern makes me think the Louisiana is a springboard race to a peak performance in the derby (as Steve noted above).
* Horse for the course at Churchill, can only help.
* Steve’s strengths callouts above are pretty significant imo – late foal, sharp in works and gallops at Churchill.
Of all the horses I have liked so far, I believe this is my strongest case yet. Kudos to those who have liked Honor Marie from the beginning.
Sherlock, great analysis…and also, CF had one more race than HM did, which could explain also why CF passed him
I think both will run big races….
I’m just ecstatic with how HM is blossoming at the right time
Thanks Betsy. And I think you’re right on all of that. Hoping it plays out like we think it will. 🙂
SP,
Did you revisit the Risen Star?
Sierra Leaon ran by both easily. I doubt Sierra Leaon has been fully extended since his Remsen effort.
Hey CP,
I like Sierra Leone in this race as well. He should be very tough.
Davids, thanks for the heads-up about Rosie Napravnik being on the Morning Works show today. It’s been a hectic day, and I just got to watch the replay on YouTube. Really enjoyed her insights, especially her comments on the body language of the horses and riders.
I think Rosie’s comments are really insightful as well. Great addition to the show.
So glad you enjoyed the coverage, arlingtonfan. Rosie Napravnik is a straight shooter and she knows the horses, track workers, jockeys, trainers like the back of her hand so you are getting an inside view.
Looking back at last year’s Derby, it ended up being an 18-horse affair after scratches, including ML favorite Forte. Angel of Empire ended up going favored at 4-1 and Tapit Trice a close second choice at 9-2. Angel of Empire ran 3rd and Tapit Trice 7th.
If we get a 20-horse field, could Fierceness and Sierra Leone go off at 4-1 and 9-2? If Fierceness draws a decent post position, I think he’ll go off at 5-2 or 3-1.
The reason that I looked back is that I was curious what a $1 Superfecta pays. It paid over $15k last year. Mage(15-1), Two Phils(9-1), Angel of Empire(Fav 4-1), and Disarm(27-1). Not impossible.
The $1 Super High Five was the bet. It paid over $194K with #1-Hit Show(24-1) in the 5th spot. After taxes, that would have bought a brand new Corvette.
The 2022 Derby $1 Superfecta paid over $321K. Rich Strike(80-1), Epicenter(Fav 4-1), Zandon(6-1), and Simplification(35-1). A couple of outsiders seems to be the key. BTW, that $1 Super High Five paid over $741k with #1-Mo Donegal(10-1) in the 5th position. There’s a trend. Two years in a row the #1 horse has run 5th in the Super High Five.
Post Positions tomorrow night and I can get serious again.
I ended up playing Mage across the board, he was the only horse I bet–also hit the exacta with Two Phil’s AND trifecta with Angel of Empire I hit it out of the park, best thing was despite the late scratch of Forte I still got the entire 15-1…..this year I am looking at Mystik Dan and Honor Marie….with the two favorites and Catching Freedom…..I cannot use them all, Just A Touch is a long framed horse that could run a big race, and there are four or five more, that I cannot play—ya gotta make a stand, I’m standing with Mystik Dan and Honor Marie….
that’s hilarious
$40k yearling purchase Thorpedo Anna drilled :59 2/5 like a walk in the park today!—I like her on top! Where’s My Ring and Ways and Means underneath—Chad was steaming about her :46 2/5 fast work—Brinkerhoff was happy that his filly worked fast, I think Churchill is fast right now!….
I KNOW Thorpedo Anna looked good today, but—I prefer not to have a target, to chase for a final work, horse might do too much….
I am going to swing for the fences with the $30K claimer Everland.
I notice that the 3rd race at Churchill on Saturday evening goes off at 6:56pm and the 4th race will go at 8pm. My guess is that the one hour gap is for the Oaks/Derby Draw at 7pm.
Tommy, that sure makes sense, I’ll set the DVR! Thanks for the info!
CORRECT
Updates:
Great interview with Forever Young’s rider/groomon BH.
His nickname is Youngco..means young child.
He is very laid back but when he is in a race he comes alive.
As a two year old he was big and lazy. He would fall asleep after being on the track and eas being groomed.
T O Password has arrived early this morning at CD. Hard to say how he looked, completely covered up with a cooler. He does per his form chart, on netkeiba, weigh about 75 pounds less than FY.
Guess we will see more when he gets on the track. Might have looked a little tired, too be expected after that long trip and time in quarantine.
Welcome to America!d
We all know about Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher’s dismal record in the Kentucky Derby. Two for 64. Fierceness will be his 65th starter. Another way to look at it is that Pletcher holds the record for Derby starters. So, he’s got that going for him.
Chad Brown is interesting. Brown is 0 for 7. Chad Brown was always known as more of a turf trainer to most people. He only started taking an interest in the Derby with his first starter in 2013, Normandy Invasion. Maybe it’s him or maybe it’s his owners, but Brown is getting to be a regular at the Derby. Two runners in 2016, and one each in 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2022. Zandon looked like a certain winner in 2022 for about 100 yards before flattening out late. I think most of us feel like Chad Brown has a good shot to win this year. I happen to think that he might have 2 good shots.
As has been mentioned, Pletcher has had 64 starters, but only one previous favorite. The one Pletcher favorite was Always Dreaming. I wasn’t sure that Fierceness would be the post-time favorite. But after today’s work, the word will spread to all corners of the thoro-sphere. I’m guessing 5-2, with Sierra Leone at 3-1.
I thought Bellamy Road went into the gates favored…..
He was indeed the favorite….for Nick Zito.
I think you are correct on your odds prediction
Lots of banter on this site and the other about speed ratings, I use them more to detect form patterns, than individual races ratings, but I’ll admit the Beyers can be perplexing!….
Tomorrow n the Churchill ninth—two fillies ran on the same day at Fairgrounds, Happy AM I won race eight wire to wire, in 1:11 4/5……Speedy Traveler won race six wire to wire in 1:10 3/5…..Happy AM I got a 88 Beyer ….Speedy Traveler got a 84, for running 1 1/5 seconds FASTER…..
My only speed-figure considerations for the Derby are Brisnet based. A runner must have earned a minimum of a 96 in the last prep and cannot have a large improvement or regression from the next-to-last prep to the last prep. But no horse is ruled out of consideration due to one handicapping category.
How about some love for Tampa Bay Downs track announcer Jason Beem after his calls of the last two Tampa Bay Derbies? In 2023 it was “Here comes that big gray”. This year it was “A titanic tussle in Tampa”. Bravo! Even if he had that “titanic tussle” ready to go.
I dislike landing on favorites in a 20-horse Derby. I’ve said that I think this year’s Derby winner is among Steve Haskin’s top five. I really do. You might even be able to get 10 or 12-1 on one of them(Just a Touch or Catching Freedom). However, I keep going back to Domestic Product. Sure, his numbers are slow. As Mr. Haskin points out, he’ll be coming into the race with 8 weeks between races. Tyler G sticks with Sierra Leone.
In his Tampa Bay Derby win, he was bottled up behind extremely slow fractions before getting out and still being able to run down a couple of horses that were on that slow pace. I still can’t believe that Good Money or No More Time were not able to win that race. As far as the 8 weeks goes, is there a trainer in the country that we can trust more than Chad Brown coming in with a break like that? Tyler G sticks with a good one, but Brown was able to find a capable replacement in Irad Ortiz. Ortiz might be due to win one of these things. 20-1 sounds great. 25-1 even better.
Maybe I’ll come to my senses by Derby Day, but as of now, I’d like to use Just a Touch, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Domestic Product in all my multi-race wagers. Pending final works and post positions. Which one gets my big Derby bet? I’ll probably change my mind 3 or 4 more times between now and May 4th.
If Just a Touch or Domestic Product draw the rail or even the #2 or #3, I’ll likely leave them out due to their running styles. It wouldn’t bother me to see Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom draw inside. They will be going to the rear anyway and will be flying late no matter where they start from.
Why would you want to exclude Just a Touch or Domestic Product if they draw the rail or even the #2 or #3?
Both have tactical speed and some mount of class. IF both draw inside and beak well, both will be sent to secure position heading into the 1st turn.
Because I think that they will get bottled up inside with that crush of horses coming from the outside. Florent Geroux on Just a Touch rides best right off the flank of another horse IMO. 4 – 15 would be good for him. I expect Domestic Product to be a little farther back in the Derby than he was in his slowly run preps. Tampa was so slow that I think Domestic Product could have taken the lead if Tyler G had chosen to do so.
Good luck with your future bets. I’d love to read about someone cashing out a big score after the race.
Thanks.
Anyone drawing rail is toast.
Tommy, Domestic Product is definitely a live longshot, as Steve suggested. DP has a couple of trends to buck: the layoff and the low speed and performance figures. But at his expected odds, he’s definite worth a shot — particularly in exotics and WPS. You draw a line through the muddy Remsen and his record looks pretty darn good.
I know someone asked this question earlier but I didn’t see the answer, anyone know what time post position draw is tomorrow? Thanks!!
Info is scarce, but a couple of people have posted that it will be shown on TVG/FanDuel on Saturday evening between races 3 and 4 on Churchill’s nighttime card. Between 6:45pm and 7:30pm? Not 100% sure.
I agree with you, info is absolutely scarce, couldn’t find it anywhere. Thanks for your feedback, Tommy I’ll see if anyone on TVG can confirm.
It will also be shown on You Tube and twinspires video. The 1st race goes off at 6:00 p. m. The 3rd race is 7:00 pm. and the 4th race is 8:00 pm. So, look for the post position Derby draw to take place from 7:15 – 7:45 pm.
War Like A Goddess returns today.
Best of Luck, Safe Race and will be cheering for her!
War Like A Goddess scratched, got a cut.
Steve, Leonard,
Please delete my comment that is being held for moderation from back on April 23 at 3:16PM in which I mentioned a person whose first name beings with J.
Thanks
That’s for Leonard. I have nothing to do with comments being held for moderation.
Steve or Leonard, would you please delete my post (re: defections) from about 2 hours ago that’s awaiting moderation for no apparent reason. If it does suddenly appear later, it’ll be untimely or lost in the forest.
Sorry Winston. That out of my territory. Leonard handles all that..
Any scuttlebutt on Encino – in or out??
I have asked around.
I’m waiting for news on Encino, myself, Katy. He was said to be working this morning or tomorrow morning before a decision is made. I didn’t see any sign of him this morning, so, it looks like tomorrow morning or bust for a work. I intend to use him in my exotics if he’s in. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Dewey,
He did not work this morning.
Same answer when I asked on other sites.
I spoke with Godolphins head guy in U.s. last sunday and he said same thing. After he works they will decide. I dont know if he was on the track this morning. they hardly showed anyone. Spent the entire 15min on 3 works 2 of them oaks fillies
Steve, with 5f in 59.2 this morning, it appears that Encino remains in sharp form. Do you still think there’s a possibility of a bounce three weeks out from the Lexington?
Encino made a great appearance this morning and cruised 5f in 59.2 alongside Catching Freedom. He earned his way in the Derby. I’m really looking forward to this year’s race.
Hi Steve, I’ve got a question for you regarding Resilience.
Jon White lists adding blinkers for either the Derby or the last prep as one of his Strikes on his Derby Strike System. I loved Palace Malice a few years back and was rewarded for sticking with him in the Belmont, but I sure wish I would have known about Jon White’s Strike System back then for the Derby as Palace Malice ran off under Mike Smith that day.
I’m thinking of sticking with Resilience in spite of the addition of blinkers for the Wood for a couple of reasons. Since 2000 only 5 Derby runners have been 2nd time blinkers on Derby Day (Improbable, No Biz Like Show Biz and Untappable are the 3 that I remember from my research last night). I really enjoy Mr. White’s analysis, but I’m not sure that 5 out approx 450 runners is a large enough sample size to be considered statistically significant.
Also, as I understand it, Bill Mott put the blinkers on to help focus as opposed to getting Resilience into the race earlier. They seemed to help because Resilience quickly reasserted himself after a momentary loss of focus mid stretch of the Wood. Perhaps 2nd time blinkers will negate even that momentary loss of focus.
Anyway, I’m wondering if you agree with my assessment or possibly even have another take on the blinkers issue relative to Resilience.
My apologies! I just re-read what you said about Resilience in your article and the answer to my question was right there in black and white. I’ve read and watched so much since Monday that I’m getting myself confused. I apparently adopted your opinion as my own without realizing it 🙂
Jim, blinkers on or off for the Derby is the change that would concern me. If a trainer hasn’t figured the horse out by then, why should we have any confidence? A change for the final prep is fine as long as the horse runs well. And Resilence won, so no worries for me on that score.
Thanks Winston, that’s pretty much what I thought, but I read through those Derby Strikes this morning and I started to re-think Resilience. I was anxious to bet him back to the day that he scratched out the MSW won by Change of Command. I try not to get personal favorites, but Resilience, Catching Freedom and Common Defense have built up a bias for me this year, so I’m turning over every stone that I can think of to make sure my biases don’t cost me this year. Common defense was taken out of the equation unfortunately, but I’ve still got two to scrutinize. Fun riddle to try and solve, but I’m as flummoxed this year as I’ve ever been.
Good luck finding the answers and thanks for the comment.
I dont like equipment changes for the Derby. But hes worn them a d won so that doesnt bother me second time.
Davids, question for you.
Guessing you have heard that Justify is not shuttling to Australia this year but rather will be servcing mares from there on Southern Hemisphere time here.
How have his progeny performed in Australia both in the sales and on the track?
There is a rumor floating around that he is having problems getting mares in foal. Maybe he needs a break…these long breeding seasons and shuttling does take a toll on these stallions in my opinion.
American Pharoah looked rough when he returned after his last shuttle. He is once again looking great after staying home.
Thanks!
Lynda, Justify is doing extremely well in Australia with million dollar yearlings and Group Stakes winners 1 – 3 and stands for $77,000 (AUS). Storm Boy is his most prominent progeny thus far. Had he won the Golden Slipper Stakes you could have probably doubled the stud fee. That’s said, as you know, Justify won’t be returning to Australia this year.
If you want all the data on Justify in Australia go to breednet dot com dot au That’s the site I prefer to use and search. I think you will really enjoy it.
Justify is too valuable a sire now to shuttle him. If City of Troy does what is expected in the 2,000 Guineas next Saturday his stud fee will double. It’s been a long time since we’ve had a sire that is equally successful in both US and Europe let alone Australia.
The loss of Scat Daddy so early is a magnified by Justify’s success.
Thank you and for the data base. I am not as up on racing in Australia as other countries.
For sure Justify is too valuable to shuttle.
Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Forever Young on track this morning. All 3 looked “fabulous” in my opinion.
Sunrise is just stunning at CD.
Thorpedo Anna and Leslie’s Rose are my favorites for the Oaks. Hope to get more up to speed on the fillies over the weekend.
T O Password scheduled to arrive at CD today. We finally get a lookie loo at him.
Great discussions and comments this week!
Considering events going on in US and the world, watching these horses early in the morning is a peaceful diversion.
Fierceness workout was smooth and nice. He just floats and work effortlessly.
Forever Young just looks athletic and got his long legs.
Lynda, could not agree with you more, that horse racing is a great diversion and a breath of fresh air!!
Your two filly picks have been impressive, and Just FYI looks really great, too. I love the bargain purchase on Thorpedo Anna, and how gamely she goes! I think this crop is full of fantastic females, which would be nice – we might enjoy them for a couple of seasons.
The Cox fillies worked nicely, with smaller Tarafa very competitive and eager. I thought it was interesting to see them kept as workmates this close to the race.
Just something about Thorpedo Anna. Those ears maybe.
Just FYI, very powerful, strong filly.
T O Password is here
Fierceness worked well.
Fierceness is expected to use his superior speed to telling effect in the KD. I am still struggling to agree with this prediction. In the interest of full disclosure, I harbor no dislike for Fierceness that would in any inhibit my capacity to concur with a majority opinion.
Below is an example of what inhibits my concurrence:
Fractions for the first 3 panels in Juts A Touch 3 starts:
MSW—— 22.45; 46.10; 1:10.53 – Equibase -100
Gotham – 23.42; 46.63; 1:10.94- Equibase – 95
B/Grass – 23.15; 46.48; 1:10.83- Equibase -105
Fractions for the first 3 panels in Fierceness last 3 starts:
BCJ——– 23.25; 47.02; 1:10.86- Equibase -110
H/Bull —- 25.03; 50.53; 1:14.25- Equibase -90
FL Derby- 24.07; 47.50; 1:11.31- Equibase -110
If Fierceness was substituted with Just A Touch in the FL Derby and JAT had the luxury of recording fractions of 2.07 .47.50 ;1:11.31, by how many lengths would the Brad Cox trainee have won?
Which of the two have been facing more formidable opponents?
Just A Touch raced an average of 2 lengths off the leader in his races. Based on the comparable factions above, Just A Touch is a consistently faster colt than Fierceness over 6F.
Big Beyers and minus TG numbers seems to be the driver of Fierceness’ status as being superior in the speed department.
On the subject of speed figures. The fractions in the Gotham were 2 to 4 seconds faster than the Holy Bull. Yet, Fierceness was assigned an Equibase 90 for 3rd and JAT 95 for 2nd. The aforementioned doesn’t compute.
Honor AP’s first winner looks very much like him, not in color but in the way he leans down in stride …I remember when John Shirreffs had Honor AP and Express Train, he enjoyed success with both …Express Train returns from 18 months off tomorrow, as a seven year old…John has not enjoyed a thriving last couple of years, but I’ll be betting on Express Train, he is a truly beautiful horse, when I saw Flightline I realized Express Train had him beat, on looks too…
What was injury to Express Train?
I don’t know, John said there was no surgery….I know he was in training last Spring but did not start last year….
Thanks Matthew! Appreciate the info.
That made me so happy – I’ve been waiting 2 years for this, lol. I’m still crushed by his Derby and forced early retirement, but …I believe he will be a very good sire
It’s just TP, but hopefully he’ll have a nice career …
Betsy, Honor A. P. needs a host of early runners with wins, especially some stakes winners to increase his crop size. So it’s a good start.
David, I don’t think he needs THAT much success – it’s not realistic because he’s not going to sire overly precocious horses. What he needs is just to sire promising horses – kind of like AP Indy’s first crop. I expect he will – I have great faith in him. The problem with his sire is that HC had no speed, and Lanes End did not do a good job with him; they bred him mostly to route mares, which only doubled down on his closing abilities – except his offspring mostly had none of his talent. HAP had much more speed than HC, which will help.
I don’t think LE has supported HAP well at all – especially in his 33 book 3rd crop. He suffered badly because of his sire, But his babies showed well at the sales, and good sires can overcome mediocre mares
Betsy, you may have forgotten A. P. Indy’s first crop. Consisting of only 45 named foals A. P. Indy had 13 stakes winners with an incredible 29% strike rate. Yes, unbelievable!!
The reason why Coolmore and Spendthrift are so success in promoting their first season sires is not only that they have 200 or more mares allocated but also many will produce precocious, speedy progeny that are an instant advertisement for the sire in question.
These days it’s vital for sires to have early success otherwise they are quickly forgotten.
David, I could never forget, lol….but not as 2 year olds ….
They don’t have to have precocious success ASAP if they’re not bred for it. IMO HAP just has to have promising winners and maybe a SW.
Honor Code went ice cold after his freshman season because his runners had zero spree and few showed promise
I’m confident that he will rebound numbers wise
Betsy, a renowned stud farm manager in Australia told me in ‘ancient times’ lol that he is never high on a stallion who’s racing style was to “come from behind” / a closer. “They don’t pass on any speed,” this being the era when ‘Speed to Stamina’ was the orthodoxy.
I think he was basically right.
And can we take a moment to give his name? Dancing Porky. Yep. I want to hear that name a lot for a couple of years, because it really makes me smile! I can only hope they call him Porky at the barn. Handsome guy, and went professionally with the wide trip.
Betsy, I fully agree about the poor utilization of HC, and apathetic HAP campaign. I would bet that Honor Code does really well in Japan, as I also hope Chrome does.
Katy, the name makes me 🤢🤢🤢😭😭😭
I was very upset when HC was sold, but no one wanted him here, and the Japanese did – they will do right by him. In fact, he’s booked full!
I was stunned by how the breeders abandoned HAP despite his sire….He’ll prove them wrong!
Agreed.
I love this bloodline, and I am glad it is going to be preserved. I hope that domestic breeders will start to see the value, too. The Japanese breeders are not playing around, and they are really getting some excellent mares. Nowhere to go but up for father and son!
I will also hope for more domestic winners for both HC and HAP with more traditional, dignified names!
I think Honor Code will do well in Japan!
Chrome’s current racing crop in Japan is doing well.
I will just bite my tongue regarding LE.
I won’t press you, but now I’m intrigued, lol
If Honor Marie wins the derby, Japan is going to be extra happy that they got Honor Code.
HC will give Japan a very nice AP Indy pedigree to work with..
Japan has been getting some really nice mares and sires in recent years.
I think it was Terri Z who commented a week ago or so that more Secretariat lines are being bought by Japan.
They are probably thrilled to have Honor Code!
I’ve been waiting for this!!! I’ll need to research n watch the race.
Love HAP pedigree. Very strong female runners sure and mare side.
This is the first year I’ve watched most of the Morning Works Show segments, and I’ve really been enjoying that.
Also want to say how much I appreciate having this group of dedicated racing fans to share all the Derby excitement with! It’s fun following everyone’s comments as the days count down to the big race.
arlingtonfan, don’t miss tomorrow’s Morning Works Show, Rosie Napravnik is supposed to be on.
I enjoyed hearing her opinions. She sounded like she wanted to be riding!
Yes Katy, Rosie Napravnik is always great value with plenty of insight on why the trainer has decided on this or that type of work and on how she perceives the colts/fillies are performing to that task.
arlington fan, indeed, this is the in place to be!
A couple of days ago, I mentioned Resilience’s pace and speed figures from Brisnet, and about how it points to a strong effort in the Derby. Right after each name is an abbreviation for the horse’s last race. Also noted in parentheses is each horse’s Derby finish and his post-time odds. The asterisks indicate favoritism.
E1/E2 LP SPD
2024 Resilience (W) 99/106 98 104
2022 Messier (SA) 100/109 102 108 (15th, 7-1)
2018 JUSTIFY (SA) 100/105 117 114 (1st, 5-2*)
2014 CALIFORNIA CHROME (SA) 103/110 97 106 (1st, 5-2*)
2013 Goldencents (SA) 101/110 97 106 (17th, 7-1)
2008 BIG BROWN (FL) 107/117 98 110 (1st, 2-1*)
2007 Hard Spun (TP) 102/111 97 106 (2nd, 10-1)
2006 Sinister Minister (BG) 110/123 103 116 (16th, 9-1)
2005 Bellamy Road (W) 107/120 104 115 (7th, 5-2*)
2004 Lion Heart (BG) 108/120 103 114 (2nd, 5-1)
2004 Quintons Gold Rush (LEX) 98/109 103 109 (DNF, 51-1)
2003 FUNNY CIDE (W) 97/110 106 111 (1st, 12-1)
2001 Millennium Wind (BG) 105/120 105 115 (11th, 9-1)
2001 Congaree (W) 107/118 98 111 (3rd, 7-1)
2001 Keats (LEX) 111/121 99 113 (16th, 95-1)
2001 Point Given (SA) 98/107 105 109 (5th, 9-5*)
2000 FUSAICHI PEGASUS (W) 98/108 106 110 (1st, 2-1*)
16 starters in 12 derbies: 5 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
(2 longshots: 51-1 DNF & 95-1 was 16th; both out of Lexington Stakes)
I widened the minimum in any single category by one point (97) so as not to omit a reasonable comparison.
Great connections for Resiliance, owners, Mr Mott and Robbie Alverado not mention the colt’s pedigree which has the Triple Crown race series winners written all over it.
Winners of the WM have not done much in recent years but this might be the year that changes.
Thanks for the information…gives me something to think about as I try to come up with my top 5. Just waiting on post draw.
True about the Wood. But I tend to overlook trends that can’t be logically explained.
WW, I tend to do the same.
I think it’s just a matter of time before Brad Cox starts to dominate this magical weekend. I can see him sweeping this Oaks and Derby.
In recent past years, I haven’t had much luck with my Futures wagers. In 2023, I bet Hit Show who finished 5th, in 2022, Simplification finished 4th and in 2021, Rock Your World finished 17th.
This year, with respect to my Futures bets in Pool 3, I’m hopeful Resilience (93-1) and Catching Freedom (28-1) will finish 1st and 2nd, respectively.
With $40.00 win bets on both and boxed $2.00 exacta bets on both, the payout would be significant.
Best case scenario: Resilience finishes first and Catching Freedom finishes second.
Exacta payout, $13,778
Win payout, $3720
Total: $17,498
Conversely, if Catching Freedom finishes first and Resilience finishes second the payout would be about $5,000 less.
Exacta payout, $11,273
Win payout, $1,120
Total: 12,393
Obviously, the odds of hitting one of those futures bets is very high, but both of these colts are coming into the Derby with impressive last out Grade 2 winning performances. I’m starting to feel pretty good about my Futures bets.
Hey Bill, I’ll share a rooting interest in Catching Freedom, but I missed out on Resilience (who I’ve warmed up to). I ventured into the futures pools with a total of ten modest $10 win bets for a total of $100. I wagered on the following live entries:
Forever Young (P3) 34-1
Honor Marie (P3) 25-1
Sierra Leone (P3) 13-1
Catching Freedom (P4) 31-1
Just a Touch (P4) 27-1
Encino (P6) 63-1 (on the fence for entry)
Those I bet who withdrew:
Knightsbridge (P3) 26-1
Otello (P3) 59-1
Timberlake (P4) 15-1
Tuscan Gold (P5) 81-1
If Encino joins the pack, I’ll have six shots at a winner. Only the third time in the few years that I’ve played the futures that I’ve had a live shot to win.
As always, Lady Luck rules. Good luck, Bill.
Thanks Dewey,
Good luck to you as well.
I saw somewhere that Tyler Gaffalione will be riding Ways and Means in the Oaks.
Chad Brown will be coming to Churchill Downs loaded for bear this year.
I’ll be using Ways and Means and Just F Y I in multi-race wagers. Both horses are coming off losses in their comeback races. I would have “singled” Ways and Means if Irad Ortiz was riding. Ortiz is staying with the Todd Pletcher horse.
Here’s something that might be of interest to some on this site. I saw lots of talk about Tuscan Gold. They will be having another Preakness Future Wager next week that closes right before the Derby runs. Tuscan Gold is listed at 30-1 on the morning line. I might plunk down a wager myself if I can get anywhere close to those odds. I hate messing with my Derby bankroll though.
I don’t play superfectas. I may have tried two in my entire life. But I don’t like that Churchill makes the superfectas $1 on Oaks and Derby Days when they are 10-cents all other days.
While watching workouts, I notice that Churchill has built an entire grandstand in the middle of the clubhouse turn. Maybe that was there last year. I don’t remember. They offer some premium seating there. IMO, those would be the worst seats in the house. At least you could say that you were at the Derby and saw them run by and got to watch the gallop-outs.
Tommy, I saw the lineup for the Preakness futures and, like you, thought to myself oooh! Tuscan Gold @ 30-1, how delicious is that? Has Chad Brown said anything about his plans for Tuscan Gold? If I knew he was definitely targeting the Preakness, then I wouldn’t hesitate to get a bet down in the futures.
As for those clubhouse turn seats, you accurately described the view/non-view that those patrons have. Charging exorbitant prices for those seats just adds insult to injury. Hmmm, I have some wetlands these folks might want to buy.
Yes, I’m not crazy about that big grandstand on the turn. It wasn’t there when I visited CD in 2019, and for that I am grateful.
I’m a big “ears guy”, I watch a horse’s ears, to “see” what’s going on, Mystik Dan won the Southwest Stakes and crossing the wire his ears were straight up, “implying” there was more in his tank…..
Steve I’ve been reading your columns for decades, this year’s work is your best! I noticed the in-depth looks have gotten deeper, and I appreciate that!
Agree; the details and context have been superior. Thanks Steve!
Thank you Matthew and Jeff. I appreciate that. It was exhausting but great fun.
Steve, this year your work on the Derby Rankings has been simply outstanding. Gold medal.
Honor Marie had a fantastic workout. His workmate is a sprinter and HM made work of him with ease. HM is looking good out there!!! All business and happy he finally got to stretch his legs. He is made for Churchill.
“Honor Marie with a notably measured 5f drill that unfolded in 12.0, 23.4, 35.3, 47.2, 59.1, out 6f in 1:12.3, double out 7f in 1:27.3. Internal splits: 12.0, 11.4, 11.4, 11.4, 11.4 ”
He looked GREAT in my opinion.
Thanks for the times. 5f in 59.1 that is a blazing workout. I’m hoping for a dry track this year.
I checked guaranteedweatherforecastor yourmoneybackDOTcom. it will be a beautiful clear day in Louisville on May 4th.
Thx!!! Hope it stays that way. It’s going to be an exciting derby. Got some intriguing and fantastic horses.
LOL, I need to get that deal for weather here. Forecast here yesterday was no rain, but it rained in Hartwell GA in the afternoon.
Weather Channel has a chance of rain. Much improved for Friday as well.
Not going to get a 0% chance in the southern region this time of year and into summer because of Pop up thunderboomies.
Oh no! Now the forecast says a fair chance of scattered showers on Derby day…all day! I’m beginning to think that these long-range forecasts can’t be trusted. Ha!
Welcome to springtime in the South.
“Oh, the sun shines bright on my old Kentucky home”!
Thanks Winston, hope so.
Very good to see, and I like that his final work is nine days out, I consider Honor Marie as a true contender, that likes the track–he did miss a work, in my opinion, for reason/s heretofore unknown, I did not buy into that “he’s already totally fit” narrative, he missed a work….in the twenty days prior to the Kentucky Derby he had one work….a good one …
He looked phenomenal – did it so easily, just blowing past his workmate and galloping out beautifully
Honor Marie is absolutely thriving …
Don’t jinx him, sweetpea!
Hi there,been awhile since I have seen a post from you!
Have to say this was an “EXCELLENT” work and one that I was hoping to see with a horse with his running style. I still have him behind Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. Will be anxious to see their next works but this sets Honor Marie great for the Derby !!!. Racing luck will play a big part for any of these 3 to have a chance to win.
The relatively high ranking and the pedigree detail filled overview for Encino, provides serious encouragement for the fans of the colt.
I have long harbored the opinion that Godolphin will not secure its first KD win with a well fancied entrant. Essential Quality was the stable’s best shot, but he didn’t fit the profile I have envisaged, and he failed to deliver.
As successful as Godolphin has been in major G1 races. The operation’s first Epsom Derby winner in the blue colors was the 12/1 Masar who had previously finished 3 in the 2000 Guineas.
I suspect many have forgotten that Masar was the 2nd choice in the wagering behind winner Mendelssohn in the 2017 BCJ Turf. He finished a trouble 6th by 2 1/2L. isn’t ironic that Masar subsequently won the 2018 Epsom Derby and Mendelssohn finished last in the 2018 KD.
If connections of Encino decide to take a shot with the colt. He will no doubt be at double digits odds at post time. He would therefore fit perfectly into the profile I have long envisaged for Godolphin’s first KD winner.
In the colt’s a concern was expressed regarding the absence of a start over 9F on the colt’s resume. Whilst that’s a legitimate concern. I would be too worried about it. Why?
A review of the colt’s races at Turfway Park indicate the all-weather surface is not his preferred. When a horse performs well on an unpreferred surface. It has to exert more energy to be competitive. As a result, an 8 1/2F race on all-weather for Encino equates to a 9F because of the extra effort required to be competitive.
The above theory might read like nonsense. But let’s examine the fractions and final time for his Turfway Park races:
Debut 8F ———— 23.78; 47.17; 1:14.00; 1:39.85 – Fav ($2.10); led caught late.
2nd Start 8 1/2F——24.84; 49.92; 1:14.61; 1:40.49; 1:46.97 – Fav ($0.75); led held on by 1/2L.
3rd Start 8 1/2F——-23.84; 48.31; 1:12.96; 1:38.07; 1:44.22 – Closed off the pace to win.
In Encino’s 1st & 2nd start he was beaten by a 45/1 longshot, and he held on by a 1/2L to deny a 20/1 longshot. A well-bred and classy colt failed to repel the challenge of a 45/1 longshot and struggled to hold off another 20/1 longshot.
Given Encino’s fractions and final time in his Lexington win. I would be reasonable to conclude he was struggling on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. To be competitive he had to dig deep into his reserves to win 2 of 3 starts at the location.
Every one of Encino’s races at TWP was every bit of a 9F race because of the effort he had to put out on an unpreferred surface.
No one really knows how good this colt is. There isn’t a sufficient BOW to assess him. But one thing is known, he fits the profile of a Godolphin entrant that is likely to give his stable its first KD win.
Masar won the Craven Stakes, the trial race for the 2,000 Guineas, by an outrageous 9 lengths blowing his chances in the 2,000 Guineas. Appleby’s skills as a trainer have improved markedly since 2018.
Hey, Counter Point. I just read a long comment by someone named Mark at the Keeler Johnson blog that was word-for-word from your Stronghold post last night, early morning….an exact duplicate! Can you believe it? What kind of worthless excuse for a human being does that? You should report the plagiarism to Bloodhorse.
omg
shades of ….
My biggest wins have come from physical analysis so I’m most confident trusting my eyes. And Catching Freedom, when I see him walking at Churchill, is wowing me like no other. I know several of you are already on him from reading your comments below. And I just want to say I am now on your bandwagon.
I had a close up look at Fierceness on a YouTube video. The colt looks devoid of conditioning and rather lean and small.
I am aware that thoroughbreds come different shapes and sizes. He certainly failed my eye test. He doesn’t reflect the appearance of a colt strong enough to stay 10F.
Could what my eyes reflected have been influenced by some bias that I harbor towards the colt? Certainly not!
I endeavor to call balls and strikes.
I agree. Fierceness doesn’t scare me when I look at him physically.
Some of the greatest horses to step on the racetrack in the United States:
War Admiral – 15.2 hands
Seabiscuit – 15.2 hands
Carry Back – was described as a little, scrawny horse who weighed 970 pounds
Northern Dancer – 15.2 hands
Shared Belief – was described as being diminutive “The Pocket Rocket”
Mine That Bird – 15 hands
Ladies Secret – 15.1 hands, 950 pounds
Determine – first grey to win the Derby, described as the smallest in a field of 17 weighed 870 pounds.
Galahadion – a tall but lanky lean colt won the 1940 Derby
Azra – won 1892 Kentucky Derby stood 15.2
Genetic research into the origins of the Thoroughbred have determined that English mares that were bred to the Arabians were a now extinct Connemara (pony type ype) mare that was very fast and the Exmoor ponies.
Lynda: I love all of your posts but yikes!!! on thispost.
Mentioning Mine That Bird & Shared Belief as 2 of the greatest horses to step on a race track. I am flabbergasted!!
Trust me when you are one of the best bloggers we have on this site. I really enjoy reading what you have ro say. Shared Belief was a good horse but he wasn’t close to being great.
I am just kinda needling a little, all in fun………..you’re the best.
Hi Deacon, no worries on needling me. LOL
Nice post, Lynda. I believe that Seabiscuit was a little guy, too. To the many Haskin blog readers who likely saw Azra win the Derby… I applaud you!
Oops. Missed Seabiscuit in your list. Please excuse the error. I’m over 100.
I was taking a bite of homemade pasta salad while reading your comment about Azra and laughed so hard I almost spit my pasta salad out.
You crack me up, you are so funny!
That’s a high compliment, Lynda. Spitting pasta salad. Love it!
Probably not an all-time great, but he won the ‘98 Derby (and Preakness) – remember Real Quiet and how narrow he was (though average TB height)? Baffert even laughed about it after he did so well, and admitted that they didn’t think he was their “good” horse that year.
An exciting Derby winner, Strike the Gold was only 15.3. My appendix QH mare is the same height, and as a metabolic syndrome fat girl at heart, she’s bigger-made than he ever thought about being!
Katy, my beloved App/QH mare who lived to age 36 was a chunky monkey too. I have a Haflinger who gives a whole new meaning to “bigger-made”.
My rescue donkey tested positive for Cushings which probably caused her laminitis. We were not sure we could save her when I rescued her…he owners moved away and abandoned her. But little donkeys are tough, very durable and knock on wood, she has had no relapses.
Donkeys – and Apps – are the OG’s of toughness! Glad you had a soft place for a long-ears to land.
My mare goes (way!) back to Never Bend – her damsire is Never Bend Better. We were pretty high on War of Will ‘19-‘20, what with the family connections and all. And we like Tyler, too. 😉
I acknowledged that there have been small horses that have been dominant. But what I saw in Fierceness is more than small.
I detected very little muscle tone and he looked rather thin. His physical appearance didn’t reflect he possessed the power to stay 10F with 26lbs.
I compared his appearance at CD to what I observed prior to his start in the FL Derby.
STRONGHOLD
Could the subject colt be the one to wear the roses?
There are a lot of overdue associated with this colt. Many might find them to be meaningless in the decision-making process. But it’s the Kentucky Derby, a race that has often produced inconceivable results. So, nothing should be considered meaningless in the decision-making process.
Sire – Ghostzapper –
Hoder of the Stakes Record for the BCC (1:59.02). His best shot of being the sire of a KD winner was with Mystic Guide who came on the scene tool late. The quality of the colt was exemplified in his Jim Dandy and Dubai World Cup wins. This brilliantly fast stallion is overdue for a KD win.
DOB- January 24, 2020 –
The last KD winner with a January foaling date was Grindstone (January 23). Whereas the difference in January foaling date for Stronghold and Grindstone is a mere one day. Their career starts entering is the KD is exactly the same i.e., six. Grindstone’s KD win was 27 years go. A January foal is definitely overdue to win the KD.
Sire and dam sire of KD winner –
This feat has only been accomplished once in the modern era. The incomparable Unbridled was the sire of Grindstone and dam sire of Orb. This is such an irregular and rare occurrence that makes it its always overdue. Ghostzapper is the dam sire of TC winner Justify. A win by Stronghold will allow him to joint Unbridled in what is a rare feat for stallion.
BCC winners as KD wining sire –
Since the inauguration of the Breeder Cup, only one BCC winner has sired a KD i.e., the incomparable Unbridled. there is likely to be 3 starters in the 2024 KD who were sired by BCC winners i.e., Sierra Leone, Stronghold and Epic Ride should he draw in. It has been 28 years win Grindstone the son of Unbridled won the KD. This another overdue associated with Stronghold.
Sunland Derby.
it wouldn’t be a stretch to assert that the caption Derby gained graded status as a result of Mine That Bird’s KD win in 2019. Fifteen years has elapsed since an entrant from the Sunland Deby adorned the roses. It is alleged that the rarefied air at high altitude Sundland Park promotes oxygen efficiency even with one race and a brief stay in the location.
If there is a degree of truth regarding this allegation. Stronghold could enter the KD with slight advantage in the oxygen efficiency category.
This colt has a great back story as detailed above. Mine That Bird silenced CD with is 2019 win. Firing Linea only relinquish the lead to American Pharoah deep in the final furlong. Both horses entered the KD with Sunland Park’s rarefied air conditioning.
Correction_
Mine That Bird’s KD win was in 2009 not 2019.
I can “see” Fierceness in front by four, with Mystik Dan coming after him, getting first run, on the deep closers, this year …..seems like slow horses this year, a Fierceness/Mystik Dan exacta box might be the winner, and it could pay pretty well!….
Matthew, beware of T O Password he could ruin that scenario.
Are you mocking my likely Future wager entrant?
He has tactical speed but certainly nothing like his American counterparts. He does cover ground effortlessly and that for me is a big plus for routing distances.
A fluent stride equates to energy efficiency to combat the negative effects of Lactic Asid build up.
I tend to think T O Password’s contribution in the Kentucky Derby will be to burst to the front early, setting rapid fractions and unsettling the field, arousing his home team support for a brief period, then surrendering in a fast retreat.
I say, Field Marshall Davids, your astute assessment of the field of battle at Churchill is evident of your years of experience for pursuing victory on the many battlefields (tracks) you’ve been on worldwide. I must agree with your description of the battle (race) and I trust that these tactics will set up the second wave flank movement of the Forever Young brigade to come charging down the lane to achieve victory for the “land of the rising sun”, Bonzai!
We march to the sound of the guns. Oops, excuse me, I didn’t mean to make the 150th Kentucky Derby sound like an episode of ‘War and Peace’, but your preview sounded somewhat like a military plan which, as an Army vet, delighted me.
I say, old boy, good show!
Great comment Dewey!
Thanks Lynda. I’m getting so antsy waiting for the pp draw that my goofy side has popped up. The chuckles seem to be helping to ease the tension somewhat.
Dewey, your post made me giggle. However, thinking of telepathy and ‘War and Peace’ I have just finishing listen to a BBC podcast – Melvin Bragg’s “In Our Time” – and it was about “Napoleon’s Hundred Days”. An omen of good fortune?
I highly recommend this series the topics are wide ranging, educational, and often quite humorous. I listen to the program while working out. It takes away the boredom of repetitive exercise. Ha ha
Toodle pip!!
Forever Young has looked good working over the Churchill Downs track. If he can stay clear of the kick-back the 10f will be a gross advantage over many of the other runners.
Davids,
in hindsight, my post was not one of my better efforts. Sometimes, my attempts at humor go awry and this was one of them. Please excuse my foolishness, as I have been feeling some angst over the uncertainty of Encino’s entry in the Derby. I fancy him, at a price, to use in my exotics. Encino is expected to work today or tomorrow and I trust the connections will likely make their decision accordingly.
Thanks for the recommendation of Melvin Braggs ‘In Our Time’ podcast. I’ve made a note to check it out. I’ve always been interested in historical matters.
Forever Young’s people have been working with him on accepting kick back in his a.m. breezes. He’s been in the company of one of Dale Romans’ horses and running behind that one to feel the kick back. Then, there’s the hood. On this issue, I’ve decided to let matters take their course and leave it in the hands of the racing gods.
Dewey, when looking for “In Our Time” look under BBC “Sounds” as the umbrella name for all their podcasts.
With “In Our Time” you have a choice of over a 1,000 Episodes and they have a chat after the show is completed on what they feel was missed out. Then decide on tea, coffee, or water.
It’s a marvelous show, entertaining, with all the knowledge in the world with renowned experts from Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, Yale, Princeton et al.
I salute both of you!
Thank you, kind sir. A return salute to you.
We’re all in the same club, Winston.
Davids,
I too think we can expect T O Password to go to the front ASAP and probably hold the lead briefly. I too think he will retreat or fade because he just does not have the stamina to keep that pace to the wire.
I agree with Dewey as well. It will set up nicely for Forever Young and the other closers.
The Japanese still breed for stamina in their horses, something breeders here trend not to do in the US anymore. In their training the Japanese focus on the first 3 and last 3 furlongs.
He may not make the front before Fierceness does, then he’ll be following.
Agree…he will TRY to get to the front
Yes, Lynda, we are in total agreement here. I can’t see any other option but for T O Password to attempt this fraught less maneuver. It certainly should benefit Forever Young as long as he stays a few paths out away from the kick-back.
As you say, Forever Young is loaded with stamina and going the long way around Churchill is not going to impact on his final thrust. What worries me for Forever Young is getting caught in mid pack then surrounded on both sides with the inevitable kick-back stinging his face and eyes.
Needless to say, Forever Young’s team will have multiple game plans to counter act any negatives that may occur during the race. Best of luck with Forever Young, this could be the year for Japan.
Hi Davids, agree kickback is the one thing that worries me most about FY.
Mr Yahagi is a very talented and highly decorated trainer in his home country and quite well imagine that he and the entire team have all these possible scenarios covered as you say.
Steve I have become a Thorograph fan, I like the weekly radio show—You got me taking another look at Mystik Dan, because his Thorograph # “proved” he’s not a flash on the pan…well he is coming out of his skin! McPeek has a Derby horse that’s peaking …
I am not a fan of any speed figures and sheet numbers. But if they float your boat by all means sail on.
Ther truth be told I do not understand them and how they should be applied in the decision-making process.
Is my prospect of making an ROI greatly enhanced if I box the race entrants with the lowest last out TG numbers?
Do I average TG numbers for a select number of races and select entrants with the best average for my wagers?
I rely on pertinent information my eyes capture. I extensively review videos and focus stride mechanics and how efficiently said mechanics cover ground. Movement with no wasted motion is a major plus for routing races.
I focus on exceptional trainers who rarely find themselves with a live KD contender. Those are the kind of trainer that are required to make KD horses as they do not have the luxury of a trailer load to choose from each year.
Last but not least. I pay careful attention to history in two categories. What has occurred recently and unlikely to recur is the short term and what is overdue to occur.
I remain unconvinced that speed figures and TG numbers cannot be effectively used to handicap a race like the KD with its history of glorious uncertainties.
The Thorograph numbers are more about patterns than individual races, the Thorograph show, hosted by Jason Levin emphasizes the race patterns, trying to predict a horse’s next performance….
I didn’t take Mystik Dan seriously at all until the last 10-14 days. He is beautiful! He looks to be on the muscle, and ready to do some serious running. This is a lot of fun.
I include what I consider to be pertinent factors in my KD decision making process. Many times, I become a victim of information overload.
I am of the opinion that it’s of paramount importance to not only handicap likely KD entrants but also the program to which they belong.
I have stated in the past that Brad Cox should have been the default KD trainer in the absence of Bob Baffert. It appears that honor was bestowed on Todd Pletcher despite his abysmal KD record.
Brad Cox is likely to be represented by 3 starters which could have been 4 if not for the pulling of the plug on Timberlake. TP has one entrant. Both trainers had multiple likely contenders on the KD Trail. Whereas Cox was able to qualify 4 of his. Most of Pletcher’s fell by the wayside. It has boiled down to a contest of 3 against 1 between the two trainers.
The advantage has to go to Brad Cox with his likely trio which could form a tag team. Just a Touch to press the pace. Encino to stalk and take over should JAT fade and Catching Freedom to come running late to provide the final challenge for by then a tiring Fierceness.
But on a more serious note. I much prefer the programs operated by the likes of Mott, Brown and Cox over Pletcher. Why? Both Mott and Cox KD won via the disqualification of the first to pass the post. Pletcher has two wins via the regular channel.
Mott used Country House (65/1) with a one career win in a MSW to finish 2nd in the 2019 KD. He emerged the major beneficiary of the resulting disqualification of Maximum Security. Of PT’s 64 starters 1n in 22 KDs Palace Malice was possibly the only one that entered the KD with a MSW career win. He finished 12th by 13 1/L. Mott retirement of 2 stallions who in combination won 17 of their last 19 starts is one for the record books.
Cox used the Mandaloun (25/1) off a 6th by 11 3/4L final KD prep, to finish 2nd to Medina Spirit by 1/2L. he was the major beneficiary of the post-race disqualification of Medina Spirit. Cox’s resurrection of Knicks Go career from 10 consecutive losses to World #1, HOTY, BC Dirt Mile and BCC winner is one for the record books.
Chad Brown with only 5 or 6 KD starters to date finished 2nd with Good Magic to TC winner Justify*. Good Magic remains the only winner of the BCJ as a maiden.
Fierceness might be best in all pertinent categories. However, he will be facing opponents from three barns, which in my opinion operate superior programs to the one he will be representing.
Considering your belief of nefarious trainers spiking the horses with drugs, you gloss over Knicks Go’s going from a double digit losing streak to the best dirt horse on the planet…but if Pletcher ‘s horses lose a race you’ll write a 5000 word diatribe about him….not saying you should start criticizing Cox, I’m wondering how you can look at one guy and say he cheats, then look at the other guy and say he’s one for the ages…..
Knicks Go was a phenom. Don’t mess with his story, using him as an “example” for an argument.
He was good as a 2 yo, won a Gr. 1, and was improving again before the trainer switch.
Leading sire, Into Mischief, demands a stud fee of $250,000, which is understandable in that eighteen of his offspring have earned in excess of $1 million dollars. His son, Resilience, could be the next millionaire. His Brisnet Speed figure of 104 is just 2 points behind Fierceness at 106. His dam side is inundated with class and there are no less than ten Reines-De-Mares in his first five generations. His 2nd dam, Tranquility Lake, won over $1.6 million in career earnings. The fact that Resilience is a Wygod homebred colt is certainly an added plus, and his trainer, Will Mott, is all class.
As Steve pointed out in his “weaknesses and question marks” he’ll need to improve on this Thoro-Graph and Beyer numbers. Based on his ascending Equibase Speed figures, (71,80,83-91-93-103), he has clearly established an upward movement relative to speed. The loss of rider John Velazquez could hurt, but replacement rider Junior Alvarado has had a lot of success riding for William Mott.
That said, Resilience will have to beat Fierceness, who will be the post time favorite.
If in fact, Fierceness doesn’t draw well, and/or doesn’t break well, he could be in trouble from the get-go.
Bottom line, I believe Resilience has a legitimate chance to win the Derby.
Watchig him gallop every morning he is a true professional, always smooth as silk , ears up, straight as an arrow. He quite a picture physically and you cant ask for a better temperament. He move up in my book.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
Your positive thoughts on Resilience’s attributes are very encouraging to say the least. This Wygod homebred colt checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
The Kentucky Court of Appeals has just denied the emergency motion to allow Muth into the Kentucky Derby. That should be the end of it.
Get on your knees, Bob, it’s the only way they’re going to let you back in the gate.
You do what you got to do.
A shocker! Lol
Dewey, again….Bob Baffert wasn’t a plaintiff in this case. And please don’t feed the trolls here.
Disgrace you have little regard for horses,yet tripping all over yourself defending someone who doesn’t know you exist.
John, don’t waste your with with this moron!!!
Down, how old are you, nine?
I really am serious about name calling. I am trusting you to come up with another word for moron that is civil.
Luckily I have my thesaurus nearby.
Here are a few to choose from:
airhead
birdbrain
blockhead
bonehead
clodpoll
dimwit
dingbat
dolt
dope
dork
dumbbell
dummy
dunce
fool
ignoramus
imbecile
loony
loser
ninny
nitwit
simpleton
Thanks Clownskill … All of the above !!!
Your pet names ‘James’ when looking in mirror. Grow up!
Guess who … “James”?
You don’t even try to hide it anymore.
Wow
John, while Bob is not the plaintiff, he is, nevertheless, the centerpiece of this case. If we are to be done with this mess, it is up to him to express some form of remorse to be reinstated to good standing.
p.s. I regret mentioning his name and apologize to Steve. I didn’t mean to stir up the pot. However, my position on this matter remains firm.
Agree Dewey.
I don’t expect BB to genuflect, and I’d be disappointed if he did.
I used to think that way as a kid, until I was taught to swallow my pride, man up, and say I’m sorry to make up for a transgression.
Now that unequal justice has become the norm in this country, I find it easy to take sides. Some may call it juvenile. I prefer to consider it wisdom.
As you wish. Peace!
I still contend Tiz The law was high jacked in the 202 KD.
The Honorable Judge Time meters out punishment/justice in the form of Karma.
Your contention has merit. Agree regarding Tiz. Tagg is the gold standard of a trainer ALWAYS putting interest of the horse first!
Agreed. I’ve always said that if I were an owner, Barclay Tagg is the person I would want training my horses. And he doesn’t get the credit he deserves.
You’re on point! BT is great!!!
Ah, so you think the Honorable Judge, Time, will meet out justice by providing another Constitution colt, Catching Freedom, with a golden trip in the Kentucky Derby. Good news indeed.
I love Barclay Tagg, but the horses Tiz The Law beat in the shortened Belmont and the Travers were barely allowance horses. And by the time the Derby was run, TTL was deteriorating.
Tuz the Law was a good horse, all right, Authentic was better, in the Derby and then Authentic whipped the Classic field, that included some good horses …
Tiz was very good.
And what horse refused to let Authentic by her in the Preakness? Swiss Skydiver, of course! Not to mention, she did it pretty fast. Come back, Daredevil! Come back!
We can definitely keep the debate going about who was and who wasn’t, but the fact that racing went on during the ‘Rona was a MAJOR blessing in my life!
Highjacked?
No, he was the real winner. The horse under the wire first had help …
Waiting for draw to narrow things down a bit.
Does anyone know the time that the post position draw for the Derby will take place? I know that it’s this Saturday, the 27th, but I can’t find any info on what time it takes place?
April 27 Post position draws for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks approx. 7:15 p.m.-7:45 p.m FanDuel TV according to America’s Best Racing. It’s usually on YouTube at the same time as well.
Thanks, Davids. The draw is the last piece of the puzzle needed before I make my final selections.
Yes, Dewey, ‘touch wood’ none of our favorites recieve posts 1 – 3 or 17 – 20 but I think the new gate from Australia has lessened the impact those posts once had as well as eliminating the gap between the standard gate and auxiliary in the previous gate. Fingers crossed.
‘touch wood’, is that the same as ‘knock on wood’? Lol.
Watching the morning works, it was announced that the Derby post position draw will take place between the 3rd and 4th race of Churchill’s opening night card. I use twinspires for my ADW bets so I will be able to see the live video.
BTW, Honor Marie looked very good this morning working 59 and change for 5 furlongs. It was his final work before the Derby. He’s ready, for sure.
Ah, excellent news Dewey. Thanks for the heads-up on Honor Marie as well. I’m starting to feel optimistic about this year’s Derby.
Manchester City just beat Brighton & Hove Albion 4 – 0 in the English Premier League so I’m very buoyant at present. Ha ha
O Happy Day! Glad for you Davids. You wouldn’t be a big Manchester fan, would you?
It’s hard for me to keep up with soccer these days as I’m currently following my Boston Celtics in the NBA playoffs and tonight is the 1st Round of the NFL Draft. My New England Patriots selected QB Drake Maye, No. Carolina, at No. 3.
This is the best time of the year for sports in the U.S. without question.
Thanks for posting that. I enjoy watching the draws myself.
Yes, Tommy, nerve wracking as well. Good luck.
Steve,
Thank You for your very comprehensive rundown of the potential Derby starters. Very thorough and also insightful. Will be looking for your picks next week.
A lot can happen in 10 days, but right now I am keying in on Resilience. Bill Mott is the best big race trainer, evidenced by his Breeders’ Cup success. Resilience needs to run faster, but I think Mott has always had a plan. If Fierceness runs his race, he will win and a cold exacta with Resilience second will be fine. If not, I will have win and horizontal bets on Resilience. Also using Just Steel in all exotics; Lukas has him where he wants him
Initially, I was very impressed visually with Sierra Leone, and he certainly could win, but I think the race setup flattered his Blue Grass run. And I don’t understand the continued support for Dornoch and Stronghold, but I’ve been wrong before..
Mott is in my top three.
Steve, thanks for the very useful analysis, it helps narrow down the field, but also brings up more questions.
I was wondering if you have any further insight into Dornoch? If we believe the trainer it seems like they were planning on using the Fountain of Youth to “get a race in him”, but after the scratches decided to change plans and try to secure a place in the Derby. After qualifying for the Derby the trainer said they used the Bluegrass to try a different tactic and see how he “takes some dirt”. If the trainer is being truthful here, then perhaps we can throw these races out almost, or at least handicap them in a different lens.
What that leaves us with is the Remsen, where Dornoch fought hard on the stretch, got temporarily beat by SL, and impressively battled back to win.
So, what does that battle on the Remsen stretch tell us? Is there more horse in Dornoch than we may be lead to believe? What about Sierra Leone? Or is this just history now and one horse has stagnated over the past 5 months while the other has improved?
Regarding Dornoch. He broke his maiden in his third try. Never switched leads in that race.
Hung on left lead until being passed by Sierra Leone in the Remsen.
Did not switch leads until inside the quarter pole in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Was inside the sixteenth pole before switching leads in the Blue Grass Stakes. His speed numbers have not improved from his 2 year old form to 3 years old.
The Remsen was his best performance. That race will be 5 months old when the gates open on the First Saturday in May.
Should they choose to knock heads with the front runners as is his style, IMO he will be in trouble turning for home. Exotics possibility.
Never underestimate a thoroughbred’s will to win on any particular day.
I see that you’re a fan of Confusious.
I see that Knightsbridge is also nominated to the Pat Day Mile.
He was one of my KD Future Bets.
This cat is good!
Yes, DTG, the Pat Day Mile might have more ‘future stars’ than are in the Milky Way. Ha ha “More Stars than in the Milky Way” is a quote taken from Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, mogul, Louis B. Mayer when he described the famous photograph of all the movie stars MGM had on contract at the time – 1943.
I think Vlahos goes, he’s been sold and is now in the O’Neill barn ….Nash goes ….
I love this Vlahos, he looks like the real deal. They need to get him on the race track. This is the time, about 9 days days before the Derby when everyone thinks every horse can win this race. Handicapping is fun & it passes the time but IMO there are only 4 or 5 horses that can actually win this race. This depends upon the post position draws, the weather & tract conditions. Jockeys do make a difference as well unless your name is Secretariat, Citation or Affirmed or Seattle Slew.
Very good Davids. I love that quote and the picture was amazing.
Good luck on Oaks and Derby days.
Another David
I thought it might be worth a look at the horses that finished 1-2-3-4 in recent years to evaluate whether focusing so much attention on which “bomb” might run in the money is typically given too much weight in handicapping the race. (I consider bombs the horses who didn’t win their last graded prep, or place second in a Grade 1.)
Over the last 15 years, the number of bombs that ran 1-2-3-4 are as follows:
2022 Rich Strike 1ST
2020 Mr. Big News 3RD
2014 Commanding Curve 2ND
2013 Golden Soul 2ND
2010 Make Music For Me 4TH
2009 Mine That Bird 1ST
That’s six out of 60 top four finishers, or about 10 percent. The other 90 percent were proven, obvious choices. The only problem is, two of the bombs won (13.3 percent). How to make use of this information?
I could easily be wrong, but I think at least two of the top three finishers THIS year will come from this list:
A horses
Fierceness
Sierra Leone
Forever Young
I’ll use some of the other qualifiers (last out graded wins/last out grade 1 placers) as Bs and Cs, more or less on personal preferences/hunches.
B horses
Just a Touch
Resilience
Just Steel
C horses
Stronghold
Domestic Product
Honor Marie (technically, last ran second in a Grade 2, but giving him a pass)
Dornoch (another pass)
I may add Epic Ride to my Cs if he gets in. I know Catching Freedom is training wonderfully and I’ve liked him since he won the Smarty Jones, but for some reason I think he is going to be unlucky. Just hope it’s not an injury.
That’s 10 horses to play with. I’ll choose personal favorites for exacta bets and wheel the others around in trial superfectas, or perhaps trifectas. Who knows? I may even place a bet or two with real money.
Last year, Disarm finished 4th at 27-1. He was 3rd in the Lexington. In addition to Rich Strike in 2022, Simplification was 4th at 35-1. He was 3rd in the Florida Derby. In 2021, Mandaloun finished 2nd at 26-1. He was 6th in the La Derby. That’s just the last three derbies.
Ah, Winston, you burst my bubble. I relied on my memory for how horses that ran in the top four had performed before the Derby (and I didn’t reference Derby payoff odds). Both Simplification and Mandaloun were previously grade 2 winners before losing their pre-Derby starts, so they WERE proven runners. Just didn’t fit my stated criteria.
I promise to never do that again! (At least I stopped at 2021.)
Add 2017 Lookin At Lee at 33/1 finished second after 3rd in the Ark. Derby , and Battle Of Midway at 40/1 finished 3rd. after 2nd in SA Derby.
I love what you did there. I’d personally include Catching Freedom. He looks fantastic at Churchill and ran a superb race in his last race.
Because he is a closer I think he will bid his run better than those need to be well positioned. I guess closers do not need as much luck as front and mid runners.
Thanks, Wicked One! My general point is that I believe there is a clear difference between the horses that have proved themselves and the rest of the field. But as Winston says, horses who ran third (or worse) in their last prep can still step up and hit the board.
“When the hurly-burly’s done, When the battle’s lost and won” – Second witch, Macbeth – you might just find Catching Freedom with roses swung all around him in the dust.
1948 Derby had a Citation/Coaltown entry, that went off at 2/5 odds, there were FOUR other wagering interests ….
Steve Haskin’s comment about Just a Touch, calling him more of a grinder, sent me hustling to find videos of his first 3 races. After all, a grinder is only one step above a “plodder”. With only 3 starts going into the Derby, Just a Touch has 50% more experience than T O Password. If T O Password wins the Derby with only 2 starts, his trainer should be immediately inducted into the Horseracing Hall of Fame. Quickly. The Sunday after the Derby. Anyway, after watching the 3 replays of Just a Touch, I can see why Steve Haskin called him more of a grinder. He’ll need a big step forward to compete for the win on Derby Day. But he might be able to do just that. However, after watching the Bluegrass replay, I was amazed at the run of Sierra Leone. I missed it on Bluegrass Day. Probably because I was so focused on Just a Touch, who I bet on that day. Sierra Leone was very impressive that day. The way that he was able to run down the leaders. It looked like Tyler G could have had them any time that he wanted.
I see so many people saying that if Fierceness runs his race, he will be tough to beat. Maybe. But I think that if Sierra Leone runs his race, he too will be tough to beat.
I won’t make a final commitment until I see Just a Touch’s last workout on Saturday and the post positions. I wonder if Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom could be the one to snap the 37 year losing streak of horses breaking from the #1 post in the Derby. Both horses have big closing kicks.
This is the first I’m hearing a grinder is one step above a plodder
Also, it’s one step BELOW a hoagie.
Only in Connecticut. And a hoagie is one step above a sub which is one step above a hero
LOL. What a country!
Where I am from a plodder is a horse that will not go faster than a slow jog or a jig. Grinderis a starter going bad on a car.
Nothing is lower than a snake’s belly in a wagon wheel rut.
That IS low!
Do we get a pickle with any of them?
They’re called ‘salad rolls’ here – hoagies that is, not plodders. Plodders are one paced.
LOL
The assessment is correct. However, surface at CD could result in a change in that grinding action.
What are you talking about? Action??
He is more up and down late as opposed to extending his stride.
Project this scenario.
In most cases shortest distance travelled are by horses placed forward.
Horses who do not early speed, are not only at the mercy of the pace, but will have traffic problems. To make matters worse, its a large 20 horse field, and another important factor and that is this race does not appear to have much real (suicide)speed, which means that when the real race starts most of the horses in the second or third pack will be bunched up, making it much more tougher for late runners. Also keep in mind, that late runners like Sierra lLeone will not have the same kick when going further.
That is true. Most of the horses that came from way behind to win the derby were not deep closers in their preps
A good many of the prep winners who came home as closers did so with wide trips (and of course SL started wide and then wandered to the inside). I wouldn’t be surprised if this one looks like a literal cavalry charge with a bunch coming wide and wider at the top of the stretch… only to be stolen by a sweet rail trip wise guy. Probably some horse I’m thinking has zero chance, like Track Phantom or Dornoch.
Not saying I WANT to see that, because in the 3 recent(ish) Derbies I am thinking of when it happened that way, it honestly ticked me off! But then, it was always fun to hear Calvin yak. And I’ve never been more incredulous than I was watching Rich Strike try to savage the pony. Horses (shaking my head).
It’s hard to believe the fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby. 25.25, 51.14, 1:16.21, 1:39.36, and a mile and a sixteenth in 1:45.47. We know that the race was run as a non-wagering event because of some sort of a tote snafu. Was the official timer affected as well? With fractions like that, how did Good Money or No More Time not win that race? They were the ones leading that leisurely stroll around the track that day. Whatever. Domestic product was closer to the lead than he will likely be in the Derby. I view it as a positive the way that he was able to rein in the leaders after those slow, I mean sloooow, fractions. Domestic catches the eye with his looks. He’s a beauty.
Many folks see a big gap between the two favorites and the next group. Looking at all probable runners with comprehensive handicapping and the use of my finely crafted Derby profile (Ha!), I’ve settled on five contenders as win prospects. Strangely coincidental is that the five are the only horses on the first page of the PPs from which I’ve been working, Well, maybe not so strange! The five in alphabetical order:
CATCHING FREEDOM
FIERCENESS
RESILIENCE
SIERRA LEONE
STRONGHOLD
All have some weaknesses but more strengths, as Steve has so ably pointed out. Consequently, for betting purposes (to win or win/place), I cannot support the likely two favorites Fierceness and Sierra Leone at odds of around 3-1. My only two future wagers were in mid-March on Catching Freedom (26-1) and Stronghold (48-1). There’s no need to bet them on Derby day at much lower odds. Therefore, my penciled-in Derby day bet will likely be…[drum roll]
RESILIENCE
“Many folks see a big gap between the two favorites and the next group.”
I often wonder why there is this perceived gap.
STRONGHOLD – Won at CD over a mile in 1:35.99. The 8F split in the FL Derby was 1:35.63 on the back of a 24.06 first quarter and a 47 plus half mile. Stronghold’s race had a 22.86 first quarter and a 46 plus half mile with track Phantom on the lead.
Even if Fierceness runs 22 plus and 46 plus. He is unlikely to dismiss Track Phantom over 8F. He certainly will not complete 9F in 1:48 plus in hand on the back of a 22 &46 fractions
The formula I have used to compute the 9F splits in the last 20 KD might be flawed but it’s a guide. The following KD had a 1:48 plus 9F split.
2023 -Mage closed with Two Phils on the lead at the 9F marker. TP finished 2nd.
2021 – Medina Spirit led from gate to wire. Margin of victory 1L
2020 – Authentic assumed lead early and repelled favorite by 1 1/4L (9F split 1:47plus)
2016 – Nyquist tracked leader. G/Runner on the lead a 9F marker & finished 3rd by 41/4.
2012 – I’ll have Another closed. Bodemeister on lead at 9F point & Fin 2nd by 11/2L
2003 – Funny Cide closed. Peace Rules on lead a 9F point, Finished 3rd by 1 3/4L
All the above KD had either 46 or 45 half miles. Most of the lead when 1:48 plus was recorded failed to win.Should Fierceness assume the lead from the off. He will not be allowed to walk the dog on the lead.Track Phantom, Just A Touch and Stronghold are 46 horses who will not fold like a cheap suitcase.
The impost of 126lbs and a 46 & 1:10 fractions have softened the best of KD entrants. Fierceness will not be matching strides with Catalytic and General Partner. He will be up against the best of his peers on a surface unfamiliar to most but familiar to some.
Sierra Leone will outstay every other entrant in the field with the exception of his stablemate who is the only likely entrant that has a finish ahead of Fierceness. Most will dismiss that occurrence as Fierceness having an off day. But it could turn out to be real. Domestic product is a very nice colt.
Winston, I’d hold back on that drum roll until we have post positions. This year the favorites appear to be so dependent on getting perfect trips to win which is not a comfort.
Good luck with Resilience. Who do you like in the Oaks?
Davids, I’m only a Derby and Derby Trail follower now. I can’t deal with the rest of horse racing. We’ll see about a Derby Day bet. As it is I have two good ones already in hand with Catching Freedom and Stronghold. But I can’t imagine what would keep me from betting Resilience at an expected good price.
Winston, the Triple Crown could be fascinating this year so please keep following until then at least. I really enjoy reading your posts.
Thanks so much, Davids. I always look forward to reading your comments.
I have a decent future wager on Domestic Product which was influenced by his impressive maiden win over 9F.
The concern that he will enter the KD 8 weeks between starts is valid. However, it should be noted that his impressive maiden was 82 days after his 5th by 12 3/4 debut over 6F.
That performance 11 weeks between starts might just be a positive indicator that the colt runs best with lots of time between starts.
The slow fractions and final times for the Holy Bull and TBD remain puzzling, given the speed both Fierceness and No More Time displayed previously.
Using the time for the final 16th of both the Holy Bull and TBD, to extrapolate final times for 9F. The result is approximately 1: 53 plus & 1:52 plus. These times are way off the 1:50.97 Domestic Product recorded in the maiden beaker over 9F.
He was assigned an Equibase figure of 82 for his TBD win. His Equibase figure for his maiden breaker was 88. This could be viewed as regression, almost 6 months after breaking his maiden.
At a minimum this colt has improved a full second or possibly more. That would make him a 1:49 plus KD contender. The average 9F split for the last 20 KDs contested on a fast track is 1:49.59. DP was within close range of this average as a 2YO.
With his good gate and tactical speed, he should be forwardly placed and in contention with a furlong to go. This colt should be considered a serious KD entrant. It could be a Chad Brown exacta with the lesser of his 2 likely entrants on top.
Steve, your thoughts on the change in Honor Marie’s work pattern? He now is only going to have 1 more work pre-Derby instead of 2. Clearly Beckman thinks he’s doing very well, and he’s been around enough great trainers that I don’t want to doubt….but I’m torn between trusting him and worrying, lol
I’ll try to find out about his schedule
Thank you!
Whatever he’s doing, he is thriving …
He is 100% fit and he is spacing his works a little closer to the race. Hell have a good 5f work tomorrow. He pointed out that Track Phantom has had 14 between works. The horse is doing great
He also moved it up because of rain this weekend
Makes sense!
Thanks!
Awesome Steve !
Glad you have connections to find out the answers to some of our questions.
I was worried there was an issue with the horse.
Do you have the Lotto numbers for Friday or next Tuesday?
Thanks
Chris
Why would he mention Track Phantom? During his win streak, TP had 6- to 7-day spacing between works and between last works and the race. For the good second in the Risen Star, he had only a slight one-day deviation. But for the La Derby, in which he finished fourth as the 2-1 favorite, his two works were 13 days apart. So far for the Derby, TP worked on April 7 and not again until April 21. I’d say that’s unusual.
Toss!
Thank you so much! . He’ll run well – it’s all I can ask for
Here’s hoping he and all the runners have good trips and emerge from the race unscathed !
Ever since his first start, where he just kept coming and nailed the speed on the wire—I have been “all in” on Honor Marie….he has been a seven day worker…..now he will enter the Run For the Roses with one work in the twenty days before the race—a routine change—trainer says he’s dead fit already, but…. there’s that three letter word! Here’s another……But—- why?…..Having already placed two wagers on Honor Marie, in the futures, I am still going to use the colt, I still like the horse …. I do not intend to place a big wager on him anymore, instead am looking more at Mystik Dan, and his steady and fast works, coming out of the Muth race, I think there’s a lot more in his tank and there had better be—no soft fractions in the Kentucky Derby!
From a historic perspective Honor Marie is unlikely to win. He does he the ability to so do.
His dam sire Smart strike is also the dam sire of Resilience. We are only two years removed from a Smart Strike mare being associated with a KD winner i.e., Rich Strike.
If either Resilience or Honor Marie wins. It would give Smart Strike 3 wins as a broodmare sire. One of his mares produced 2009 KD winner Mine That Bird. That’s a rarity for a broodmare sire in KD history.
But historic perspectives are meaningless. What is to be, will be.
In all seriousness, 19 colts are more than unlikely to win. Whoever gets the golden trip inevitably wins the Kentucky Derby.
Jerry Jones keeps saying that he is all in on the Cowboys……… ha ha
Much luck to you
Deacon, Jones signs same ‘tune’ each year.lol Alot of show and no go. Lol
TRUE DAT!!
Jerry is a legend in his own mind.
O Password
“After opening a clear lead in the stretch in the about 1 1/8-mile Fukuryu Stakes he barely held on to win by a fast-diminishing head.”
The above is correct. But the colt was a candidate to tire at some point in the race.
He jumped from winning a maiden race on debut to stakes company against winners, 78 days after making his debut. He carried 126lbs which just happens to be the KD impost. He was a 14/1 longshot and not expected to dominate his more experienced opponents.
Sierra Leone’s resume reflects the same sequence of races with two differences. His 9F Remsen start was 28 days after his maiden breaker. He lost by a NS whereas TO Password won by a NS.
Apollo’s feat of winning KD without a start as 2YO was repeated. One entrant in KD history won with only 2 starts. Both feats were before statistics were being recorded.
Taiba with only two starts left the gates in 2022, KD at 4/1. The betting public wasn’t deterred by the history of entrants with only two starts. But probably they should have as Taiba finished 12th by 17 3/4L.
Curlin and Bodemiester failed to win the KD without making a start as a 2YO. Justify and Mage had no trouble repeating Apollo’s feat.
Where some have failed others have been known to succeed
I cashed big, on Mage, he was 15-1 WITH Forte, and stayed 15-1 after the Forte scratch —there were other late scratches last year, Practical Move scratched too….I still want a Derby horse to have raced at two, and I like a horse that raced ok vs good horses….
Forever Young, 6 furlongs in 1:19.60 this morning.
Fuzzy video, hard to see how he was traveling.
Forever Young 6F 14.84 28.88 42.66 55.91 119.68 barely out of an open gallop for a half then set down, asked for best on rail final 1/4 in 23.77 with a Dale Romans worker as a target from the outset.
No idea what this means. His jockey was on board this morning.
Yeah, Lynda, I know it’s hard to interpret what this work means? Yet, we have been warned not to expect much from Forever Young’s works, as he does his serious running in the afternoon. Watching his work, you got to wonder why they even bothered to time it. He does look good and seems comfortable with the track and that’s keeps me confident that he’ll put in a good effort on May 4th.
I think he wanted to more, was dancing and pulling a bit as he warmed upbut settled right back down.
Had to watch 3 different videos from 3 different angles to try and get full picture.
Yes, the Japan’s trainers do train differently from American trainers and I think that is what we saw today.
I am thinking his odds might increase based on this breeze, read some comments that no way would they bet on him.
He was smooth and loose and relaxed and that might be what his trainer is looking for.
I think the ass’t trainer is here and that Mr Yahagi will arrive later.
One thing for sure if Mr Yahagi thinks he is not up to form, he will withdraw him like he did Continuar.
Yes, I heard Mr. Yahagi will be here early next week as he has big races in Hong Kong this weekend and his jockey Mr. Sakai will also fly back to Hong Kong for a couple of races and then return early next week with Mr. Yahagi for FY’s final work. I believe it is Tuesday or Wednesday. I think you are right about the perception of the breeze and the time. He did seem very relaxed, seems extremely rate-able and has a bit of a pushed button effect. Depending on post positions on Saturday, many of our discussions could be completely different. Thank you for all of your comments. I appreciate your wisdom, experiencing and insight.
He wanted more at the end. His head was jerking a bit. I like what I saw. Very good energy and he got to stretch his legs. He was going nicely on the turn too.
Lynda, Bill S., there’s an informative interview with Ryusei Sakai in the Bloodhorse. Does a good job in answering many of our questions.
Hey, if Ryusei is happy, then I’m happy.
Thanks Dewey! Just finished reading the article. Sounds like Sakai did his homework last year studying the track and atmosphere. What I love about their plans for this year is he will be riding in the Alysheba stakes prior to the derby. Should get a good feel of the track and gain some real track racing knowledge. Connections serious and have solid plans in place.
Yes, Wicked One, it looks like they’re dotting their i’s and crossing their t’s. Very thorough planning and love that they’re all on the same page. Forever Young’s team and FY himself are giving out very positive vibes. I’m feeling it.
Hi Dewey. Was out all afternoon and just now had a chance to read the article.
Yes, it did answer many of our questions.
According to Mr Yahagi, he is not a morning workout horse. When I watched him in Riyadh, his last workout was very close to what he did today. The Japanese, especially Mr Yahagi, have a very different workout strategy than they do in America. Hard to fault since it has been extremely successful in their domination of so many international races over the past couple of years. Important that they brought in their regular jockey for the work Mr Sakai. Will be very interesting to see what he does in his final work next week.
Thanks for the reminder about the Japanese workouts, Bill. It must have been you that I heard about this before. I hope Ryusei Sakai will be able to secure a couple of mounts before the Derby to get a feel for how the track is playing.
I agree. It would be nice for him to get a couple of mounts, and it also appears to me, that the post positions this year for the favorites may be more important than they have been in the past few years. Because of the unique running styles of each, a bad post position could be a huge challenge.
He will be here on Wednesday as well, at least that is what was reported, then
leave. Several big races in Japan in next few days.
Same with T O Pasword’s jockey, flying in to get some time on the the colt then flying b sck to Canada.
Do not know how this International jockeys do this!!
His stride covers much more ground than his workout mate. FY responded nicely when the jockey gave a little notch. I think over all he got to he work he needed.
I noticed the same thing. It appears to me he does have a bit of a push button effect, and one thing for sure, he has a huge heart and a very competitive spirit.
Forever Young is definitely a push button type of horse. His running style and his competitiveness fits the bill for the derby. He just seems to have a bigger gas tank in him.
As Steve stated, “ He has run down a fast American miler at a mile and a 4-year-old Argentine horse at 1 3/16 miles”. A horse got to have major talent and the will and heart to do that.
Agree to the push button effect.
The Japanese also focus on the final 3 furlongs.
I have faith in Mr Yahagi that he will not run in the Detby if not totally up to form.
Steve, what a masterful overview of the Kentucky Derby runners with all the pros and cons on each runner’s aptitude to winning the Kentucky Derby. Tomorrow is a public holiday here, “Anzac Day,” paying tribute to those who fell protecting Australia so I have more time to read and reread your opinion on each runner. Just a marvelous piece of writing.
I’ve been following Catching Freedom and Honor Marie since the sales so the heart is with them the most. Mind you, Catching Freedom looked spectacular today so everyone should be on him. Honor Marie looked almost as good but his quirky behavior concerns me slightly. Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Just a Touch, and Stronghold are the other colts that keep my interest.
I would have been keener on Forever Young but he doesn’t like kick-back and Churchill Downs is renowned for that stinging sand. He’ll be out in the open for sure but the extra distance might cost him too much. Good luck to him though.
Just in passing, Speak Easy and Mindframe have both been nominated for the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard, so, you might catch them there. Both have been working progressively.
Can’t wait for your selection and the post draw. Thanks again, Steve.
Hey, Davids, I was thinking of you last night as I watched the movie, “The Sundowners” with Robert Mitchum and Deborah Kerr. A great cast and some good acting. This little gem is one of my favorite films.
As for Forever Young, watching one of his breezes, I noticed that he was fitted with some type of hood to help offset the effect of any kickback. Not sure if that’s the solution, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Forever Young is scheduled to work this morning with Ryusei Sakai aboard. I’ll be watching.
Good day, mate!
Hey, Dewey. “The Sunddowners” is a wonderful film, beautifully acted and sensitively directed by the gifted Fred Zinnemann. It’s one of my father’s favorite films as well – Robert Mitchum and John Wayne were adored by men of his generation.
Yes, I heard the discussion about the hood as well. It is supposed to protect against kick-back but the ears are not encased. Hopefully, it works but I’m a bit skeptical.
I love that movie! I need to see it again, and maybe share it with my daughter.
Same here, Katy, I haven’t seen it in over 40 years. Time just flies bye these days.
Did HM gallop today? He’s supposed to work tomorrow
What do you mean by quirky? If you mean his head was cocked, Steve Byk said – when he saw him do it last gallop-that it showed HM had yo be restrained from running off – that’s how on the muscle he was
Betsy, I haven’t watched the Morning Works Show for April 24 yet so I’m not sure. It’s available on YouTube now but I’m getting ready to go to bed. lol. It’s past 10 pm here and I’m going to my first “Dawn Service” for the Anzacs at the “Shrine of Remembrance” here in Melbourne.
Yes, Betsy, the his head/necked is cocked in an odd angle but it straightens out in a full gallop. They were discussing the habit on the Morning Works Show on the April 23 episode which is available on YouTube or TwinSpires. Honor Marie was impressive.
Hey David!
I generally get my info from Twitter, so I haven’t seen HM gallop in a couple of days
Yeah, that’s it -so it just be a way of settling the colt down, who really wants to run. He seems to be feeling good ! I saw him just now on the Morning Works from yesterday – he looked really good; the commenters thought so, too
Oh, I’m sure that will be so moving 🥲
Betsy, Honor Marie doesn’t seem to be getting the chatter that some other colts are but I like him in the top four – every chance to win. Fingers crossed for a good post, just not 1 – 4, all others are ok.
The bugle call of the Last Post in the chill of dawn was extremely moving. So glad I went.
Thanks David. I forgot about Speak Easy.
Steve, the Pat Day Mile could be the best prep for the Belmont Stakes or possibly the Preakness Stakes, you never really know these days.
The 11 day spread, in Honor Marie’s works CAN’T be what they wanted! 14th….to 25th …to May 4th, is what they are doing
14th…..to 20th ….to 27th…..to May 4th is what they wanted.
Actually it’s exactly what they wanted, Matt…o was very concerned, but see below. And HM’s connections told me a few days ago that he was doing fantastic, that he could go 1 1/4 miles already
It’s definitely NOT typical, so hopefully Beckman is right
Beckman also has decided to work Honor Marie just one more time, on Thursday, leading up to the Derby.
“I got a dead-fit horse sitting on go. I felt like he’d respond a little better having a couple of more days out from the work,” Beckman said. “I’ll work him five-eighths and let that be the final cap on what’s been a good five or six weeks since the Louisiana Derby.”
Well…OK. …so …before The Kentucky Derby they decided the seven day work spread is not what they wanted?
I guess not. I hope he’s right. I don’t know if we’ll ever really know what the missing work meant if Honor Marie lacks sufficient punch in the stretch….but he is opening himself up for questions
I agree with you, Matthew. I see no discernible consistency or pattern with HM’s workouts for his 2024 races. He was working every 7 or 8 days for the Risen Star, but then had a 12-day gap from his final work to the race. He finished fifth. For the La Derby, his spacing was 10 days, then 6 days, then 7 days to the race. He finished second by a length. After the La Derby, his first and second workouts were 7 days apart. Now 11 days to the next planned workout. Perhaps they just take it day to day, scheduling HM’s next work according to what they feel is best for the horse at that particular time.
That last work before the Risen Star was aborted because of trouble on the backstretch – it was reported in the DRF
He could have worked the next day.
This is from DRF before Risen Star.
I’m not sure if the aborted/missed work had any affect on the race – it was a quagmire, with very slow fractions…and HM did close
Ultimately people just have to decide if they trust Beckman or if it’s too unconventional.
“Three weeks in a row, from mid-January through early February, Beckman dodged heavy rain and wet tracks as best he could. Honor Marie had a major move on Monday, Feb. 5, and all had gone perfectly until a work this past Sunday had to be aborted because of trouble on the track during the breeze. Beckman considered working again Monday, instead choosing to bring Honor Marie into Saturday’s contest after a couple strong, open gallops.
“He’s had three really strong five-eighths. The horse looks fantastic. We were ready last week,” said Beckman.”
Yup. It’s right there. He considered working HM the next day. The trainer has his reasons for how he works HM. We don’t know what’s in his mind. We only know what he says…and what the record shows.
I like HM. In fact, I like them all. I’ve been following all Derby prospects for months, watching videos, pouring over reports, PPs, and result charts. HM is in a good form pattern after his layoff. He obviously loves a fast track and the CD surface. Maybe his big improvement from the RS to the La Derby (an 86 to a 99 Brisnet speed rating) won’t cause a bounce. But Derby winners typically don’t have a mediocre or bad effort in one of the two final preps – regardless of excuses. Also not typical is the trainer’s inexperience. Yes, Beckman worked with top trainers and helped bring a horse to the Derby. But he didn’t have to make decisions and he didn’t have all eyes on him. Now he does for the first time in his short career.
As I understood it…he had already begun the work, before aborting. .. and they just decided to not work, which is understandable….but this seems different …
If they routinely space his works out by 10 day intervals….then I’m ON with it but it seems they prefer weekly works, so there’s “something” going on, I still like the horse, but no longer intend on pushing a couple hundred on his nose!
Oaks/Derby Double:
Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Encino/ Tarifa and Just FYI.
Could be a Godolphin double. The Godolphins are the gold standard in the horse racing business. Watch out for the blue silks on Friday/Saturday.
Godolphin is a powerhouse, but it isn’t the gold standard for the Kentucky Derby to date.
I was “all on” on Godolphin, when they made that track on Dubai that was the same surface as Churchill Downs…..this was over twenty years ago—and I bet against Point Given, with I think E Dubai, I’m not sure of the name, he finished 6th to Point Given ‘s 5th….they haven’t won the roses yet…..
Peeps…if you have X (Twitter), search for .USA Steeplechase.
They have posted color footage of Seabiscuit winning the Santa Anita Handicap.
Watch the left side of the screen for the way they dragged the track in 1940.
Just looked at it. Very cool video. Well, except for the poor work horses. 🙁
I just finished reviewing the Brisnet.com past performances on the likely starters in the Derby. I like to compare the Brisnet Speed numbers with Equibase and Beyer numbers.
I simply add them together and divide by 3, which gives me one number to work with.
Frankly, I don’t understand how Thoro-Graph numbers are complied, but I’ll just ago by with what Steve has stated, “the lower the number the better”.
That said, I’ll use the average speed number of Brisnet, Equibase and Beyer, and factor in the Thoro-Graph number and see how that all shakes out.
Another aspect that I pay particular attention to the “Prime Power” number listed on the back page of Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performance sheets. It comes as no surprise that Fierceness is at the top with a 148.4 number, followed by Just a Touch at 148.0, Sierra Leone at 147.0, Dornoch 146.4, Track Phantom at 144.7, Stronghold at 142.9, Resilience at 142.7, Catching Freedom at 142.0 and so on.
Fierceness leads in just about every category: Speed Last Race, Back Speed, Average Class Last 3, Prime Power, and comes up second in Late Pace Last Race, (113).
Bottom line, Fierceness is the deserving favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby which comes as no surprise to anyone. 🙂
Is there a consistency category? If so, where does Fierceness rank?
Fierceness is consistently inconsistent.
Is that inconsistency that basis of your dismissal of Fierceness as the Derby winner?
Actually, in all seriousness, my heart says Resilience will win the Derby, my head says Fierceness will win.
Good luck with Domestic Product, Counter Point.
It hasn’t been posted here to my knowledge, but Common Defense has been declared from the Derby by his connections. Saw that buried in story on the Blood Horse. Hades previously was taken out of contention by his owners.
That places Epic Ride 21st on the AE list, followed by Uncle Heavy.
Based on KD site, looks like Epic Ride is in and Uncle Heavy and Seize the Grey are AE.
Ms B, I am wrong. You are right.
Was thinking Domestic Spending.
Sorry
Watched an interview earlier with Kate Mann.
She is a liason for Japan Racing and the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders Cup.
Per that interview T O Password was scheduled to fly out today from Japan, spend about 42 hours in Chicago clearing quarantine and arrive at CD on Friday. A second horse will be traveling with him whose name also has the T O prefix (did not catch rest of his name). T O ?? will be TOP’s work partner and is going to running on an undercard race per Kate.
Kazushi Kimura who rides primarily in Canada at Woodbine will be TOP’s jockey. You might remember Kimura from last year’s Derby. He rode Mandrian Hero to a 12th place finish. Not TOPs regular rider in Japan.
This will be TOP’s trainer, Daisuke Takayanagi’s first Derby. Cannot find out too much about him other than he has trained several horses for Tomoya Ozasa, owner of T O Password and he trains primarily dirt horses. He trained T O Keynes (also owned by Tomoya Ozasa) who ran in the 2023 Saudi Cup placing 4th and won 5 graded stakes races including the Champions Cup in Japan.
A few pedigree notes on T O Password:
His sire, Copano Rickey won both the Fukuryu Stakes and the Hyacinth in 2013. His record was
33 ( 16-3-3). He was voted JRA Best Dirt Horse in 2015. He won at distances from 1400 to 2000 meters.
His dam, T O Rachel is by King Kamehameha (King Mambo – USA out of Manfath – IRE). Manfath goes back to Mill Reef.
TOR’s dam is Nike Favor (Favorite Trick by Phone Trick). Nike Favor’s dam Sixy Chic’s grandsire was Alydar.
T O Rachel’s race record was 23 starts (3-2-4). Her wins were one at 1200 meters, two at 1400 meters. All of her races were allowance races.
T O Password is inbred 9.38% to Mr Prospector and 9.38% to Nureyev.
He is solid bay with a small star, weighs 1,050 pounds.
I made two exacta future wager bets one in the 3/15 pool and one in the 4/5 Pool. Still alive on most.
3/15 Fierceness Mystic Dan
Catching Freedom 453 1840
Fierceness X 465
Mystic Dan 418 x
Sierra Leon 122 372
Track Phantom 562 1271
All Others 286 595
4/5
Forever Young with
Catching Freedom 168
Fierceness 73
Grand Mo the First 3708
Honor Marie 260
Just a Touch 477
Just Steel 419
Mystik Dan 461
Sierra Leone 118
Track Phantom 1106
Steve-
Thanks for another very insightful column. I think you might have to add an * to Fierceness only beating your 18th and 19th ranked horses. Remember he demolished Muth in the BC Juvenile.
Paul
I was just going by this year. At this point I’m not really that interested in last year. Horses change too much fom 2 to 3 and I believe the Muth we saw in the Arkansas Derby was better and more mature than the Muth of last year.
Steve-
Excellent points. Thanks.
Hi Steve! I love this rundown! Thank you for a serious gem of a column. I believe that even with the deserving top two, this race and this crop of colts are very difficult to assess, and this is a great guide. As I was reading, there were more than a few times that I exclaimed out loud, “Yes!” or “That’s what I see, too!” Maybe I have finally learned something after reading your writing for so long, although I still have no business putting wagers together: this year, I like too many of them. After I finished reading, I was still quoting the 8-Ball when I asked myself, “Ok, but who do I like BEST?”
REPLY HAZY TRY AGAIN LATER
Three tidbits that may be interesting:
Only one red horse (Society Man) and one grey (West Saratoga) in the field; the rest are bay or dark brown.
Sierra Leone and Forever Young’s dams are half sisters, so these colts, born half a world apart, share a maternal grand-dam (Darling My Darling).
No sons of either Tapit or Curlin, but some of their talented (and more affordable) sons have sired colts in the field.
Thanks again! We get to keep this conversation going after 5/4, right?!
Thanks Katy, dont worry, I get as confused as you . A Sierra Leone — Forever Young exacta either way would be amazing.
Katy,
Including 2021 winner Mandaloun (who placed first after Medina Spirit’s disqualification), 56 bay horses have won the garland of roses.
Chestnut is the next most common coat color, with 48 winners, while 31 dark bay/brown horses have finished first in the Run for the Roses, and just eight gray/roan horses have earned victories.
Steve
Thank you
C
Awesome quote from Ben Curtis:
“On riding in a 20-horse field: ‘I lived in big fields. Everything in the UK is big fields’ “
I’m stoked – Honor Marie is sitting on a big one. He’s bursting out of his skin and ready to run
Betsy, I listened to the Ben Curtis interview. It made me laugh some of the questions Curtis was being asked by the US racing media.
David, I haven’t had the chance to listen – but he seems like a great guy.
American media is awful 😂
I’ll take the U.S. racing media over the U.K. racing media. They are bloody bonkers over there.
Thanks Steve for another awesome derby year! Made the 2nd half of winter go by faster and interesting.
Can’t wait for the draw!
So glad to hear it. Thank you. It made it go by faster for me too
There is no racing writer in America who evaluates the Derby contestants as thoroughly and insightfully as our host. Derby fans need to look no further than this blog for inspiration and analysis.
Now about this Derby: If only the early pace could be predicted. In some years, you expect quick early fractions and they don’t materialize. In other years, you might expect more moderate fractions, yet the reverse happens. The horses you may expect to be on the lead don’t get the lead. The horses that gain the early lead are sometimes not the ones you would expect. Could anyone have foreseen that Verifying and Kingsbarns would go the first half mile in 45 3/5 in last year’s running?
Simply put, the fastest first half miles produce deep closing winners. In the past 25 years, 10 runners have closed from at least 8 lengths behind after 4f to win the Derby. All but one (i.e., Mine That Bird in the slop) closed off of a 4f fraction quicker than the median time. The derbies with the five fastest 4f times were all won by these closers. But good luck figuring this angle out prior to the opening of the gate.
I’ve separated the field into three groups:
FRONTRUNNERS
Fierceness
Track Phantom
Dornoch
Just a Touch (maybe!)
Catalytic
Encino
T O Password
STALKERS
Stronghold
Resilience
West Saratoga
Just Steel
Domestic Product
Grand Mo the First
CLOSERS
Sierra Leone
Catching Freedom
Forever Young
Honor Marie
Society Man
Mystyk Dan
I’m not sure that this will help me finalize my handicapping next week. But it sure does tell me that horses accustomed to be stalking in third or fourth position may find themselves somewhere between 8th and 13th after a half mile. That is the supreme challenge for stalkers. Frontrunner/presser types and closer types know what’s required as they sit in the gate. The rest, the stalkers, need to work things out during the race. Bring it on!
Thank you very much for the kind words Winston. I appreciate it. It would be nice if more people knew we were here but we have a terrific community whose knowledge I’ll stack up with anyone.
Steve, the number of people who comment is just a small percentage of people who visit and read your blog. And the number of people who comment here is big! You consistently have hundreds of comments under each of your Derby Rankings contributions. One earlier this month had almost 700. That’s a heck of a lot for a blog.
Winston, thank you breaking the contenders out in the categories.
Very helpful!
You’re welcome, Lynda. It always helps me to get an idea of how the race might set up. But it rarely goes as expected!
Winston, nice post. I’m starting to wonder if this year’s Kentucky Derby is going to be won or lost on post position. Namely, whether Fierceness gets between 5 – 10 and if John Velasquez can rocket out of the gate.
Chasing Freedom looked spectacular today. Honor Marie impressed as well.
Thank you, Davids. For sure, post positions are critical. Yet it’s so difficult to abandon a horse whose chances you like just for his seemingly disadvantageous post position.
Interesting categorization.
Stronghold broke his maiden over 8F at CD in 1:35.99. Subject to correction only two 1:35 plus fractions have been recorded in the male division in 2024.
Since visiting Sunland Park for their Derby which is known to improve oxygen efficiency. Stronghold has won the SA Derby and has worked 46 plus & 58 plus. I am of the opinion belongs amongst the front runners.
Domestic product has excellent gate speed. I doubt he will be taken back if he breaks well. He likewise belongs amongst the front runners.
Mystic Dan as a closer! That doesn’t compute. Who amongst the closers will he out close?
Steve Haskin, thank you for giving us a master class in handicapping and pedigree for the Kentucky Derby. I have learned more about horses, their history, horse racing, and handicapping than from anyone else.
Thanks for sharing your brilliant analysis of everything pertaining to the top 20 horses as well as others waiting to get in.
Forever Young, a really tough and talented competitor, reminds me so much of the grit and talent of his great grandsire: Sunday Silence. Who knows what will happen. Anything is possible on the first Saturday in May.
That’s very kind of you Terri. Thank you very much.
Steve, thanks for all of your hard work. Fair and balanced as always-perhaps NPR can learn the meaning of what unbiased and impartiality means.
It is starting to look like Churchill Downs might have lucked out on this one at this stage with three horses that I believe (Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Forever Young) capable of running exceptional races.
With that said, I’m sticking with Forever Young.
And speaking of biased media the New York Times will have a show in their continuing series Friday (26th) nights on FX or Hulu called ‘Broken Horses’ that will probably continue their unflattering reporting on the horse racing industry. After reading reviews and watching the trailer it appears to fit those that have an ‘axe to grind’ against this sport. I’m not holding my breath that the NY Times will use a fair and balanced approached to this….
Good lord!
Thank you John . I agree with most everything you said. It’s sad the NY Times turned against us.
John, you use this site as vehicle to push your agenda. Go ahead and continue to
advance ruse-pretending no problems exist in racing.
John, since the arrival of the internet I’ve noted that the New York Times tends to go for controversy over a fair and balanced approach on any subject. It’s not the newspaper it once was but is still the best the world over.
I blame the editors on their stance regarding racing.
I am with you here John.
Nelson Mann seems to be missing lately. Hope all is OK.
I kniw, not a typical time you would leave
Hi Lynda.
Thanks for your message Lynda.
Everything is OK … I am currently fully invested in carrying out a simulation of a geothermal process to generate clean electriciy … a preparation to a field trip is also preventing me to participate lately.
Anyway, I really enjoyed Steve’s summary in the form of Weaknesses and Strengths of all the contenders… and of course your comments are always enlightening as well.
BTW Stronghold will be a big overlay in the Derby… many people will be discouraged by his speed figures …
Hi Nelson,
Happy to hear all is OK! Your project sounds fascinating and something that we are in dire need of (alternative energy sources).
We are somewhat like a virtual family here and when one of the members goes missing I worry and wonder if they are OK.
I guess we know YOUR priorities. Ha ha! Wishing you a successful project and looking forward to your return to regular commenting.
Thankyou once again for the excellent information you provide. No one does it better than you. I am looking at one possible weakness that hasn’t shown itself yet with two of the top five ranked horses in this column, namely Sierra Leone and Forever Young. you say about Forever Young, “His tail-female family is inundated with sprinters. Although it has not affected his performances so far,”. This statement would apply I assume to Sierra Leone as well, since they share the same tail-female family. Should this become a factor in the Kentucky Derby when they both try a mile and a quarter for the first time will it open the door for that one horse who will be finishing at the end. “so far” is the tough question.
Yes they do share the same female family but there was so much to write about Sierra Leone I simply forgot to get into his pedigree. Even with that, both look like they will stay.
Incredible column once again Steve. It seems to be a lot easier to narrow down horses this year than in years past which scares me, LOL. Fierceness is such a standout. Would need to serious unfortunate luck for him to lose.
Thanks Seth. It certainly looks like a top heavy field. Not a great scenario for a bomb.
Seth, how many favs lose? Many.
Society Man has a rider….an old guy…..came out to Santa Anita to start his final year, LAST year—- probably should have come years ago—Dettori is riding lights out …
Frankie Dettori is riding Society Man? I’ll have to rethink my C horses.
VERY interesting. He’s been making Dornoch look like a stable pony in morning works. When others have mentioned wise guy horses, Society Man has come to my mind. Maybe also resonating with one Frankie Dettori! “Retirement.” Just goes to show, when you have the horse disease, it’s a tough one to clear from your body.
Steve, thanks again for having us along on your journey to Louisville. I agree with Bill and Lynda, this column and the speed analysis report were over the top with great detail and insight. You’re the GOAT!
Down to the workouts and post draw. Fierceness looked to be bouncing on his toes and happy. Mystik Dan looks ready for a fight. He had an excellent work yesterday and during his gallop today he seemed pissed that his rider didn’t want to let him go. I have to say that of them all, I was most impressed with Catching Freedom. He was looking beautifully fit and confident this morning. Your points about him are spot on and I was really impressed with his LD close on slow opening fractions and to do it 10 wide down the lane. He and Sierra Leone will be flying late in what could be one of the best finishes ever. Forever Young tomorrow will be telling. I like his running style best of all as a true stalker but can he hang with the speed that will be present this year? I’m hoping Fierceness gets his opportunity to shine but I will be rooting for the charging cavalry to make this a finish for the ages.
Here’s to 150 years of classic American Racing at Churchill Downs. This one is shaping up to be a doozy, especially if we get a break with the weather. Stay tuned, news at 11, or 10 if not out west.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. So far the main contenders are all looking great.
Steve, may I say that you did an exceptional job this year in keeping your readers abreast of all the news of the Derby contenders. I know that it can’t be easy, but you were certainly up to the task. Good job! I especially like the pros and cons format for Week 14. It gives us a complete and honest evaluation of each ranked horse.
Do you have any idea of whether or not Encino will be entered in the Derby? You had mentioned that there was a two week turnaround from the Lexington to the Derby but, actually it is three weeks. This seems enough time for Encino to catch his breath and be sharp for a big effort on May 4th. I need a longshot for my exotics and he’s the one.
Thanks again, Steve, for all the hard work and effort that you put into your fascinating columns. I enjoyed them very much.
I appreciate it Dewey. Thank you very much. Whether they enter will depend on how he works Friday or Saturday. But if its Saturday they will have to make their decision very quickly.
Thanks, Steve. I’ve been watching the breezes from Churchill every morning and will keep an eye out for Encino.
Thank you Steve for all the time and effort you put in year after year give us all valuable information we could not get anywhere else. You are truly one of a kind who loves this sport.
Just and FYI for all who come here, Free Bris PP’s for the KY Derby at HRN now available.
Hey Biglemmer, where do you find those Bris PPs on that site?
Go to the HRN website, find betting across the top and in the drop down from there click on free pp’s. Kentucky Derby 2024 pp.s will pop up.
Hi Steve… Thank you wholeheartedly for all the info you impart every year as it relates to the KY Derby… You will always be the man indeed! 🙂
Catching Freedom is definitely at the apex of my picks for 2024 as the exact same connections of last year’s beaten favorite Angel of Empire try to make amends… Catching Freedom checks a lot of boxes pedigree-wise, past performance-wise and should be a square price at the off. I like the two Justify’s: Just a Touch and Just Steel, both off bang runner-up efforts in Grade I 9f preps. My Longshot DeLuxe for 2024 is… Catalytic and it goes beyond the charts, numbers, stats, etc. Yes, the KY Derby will be his third start off the layoff, Yes, he was a respectable runner-up in his graded stakes/two turn debut… it’s this: Saffie Joseph was banned from last year’s Run for the Roses, if that isn’t the catalyst (pun intended) for making something happen the next year. Thank you, Steve. Good luck, everybody and “May the horse be with you!” – The immortal Harvey Pack
I appreciate it JG. Catching Freedon looked fantastic this morning
As usual you are “spot on”, as they say. We are in agreement with almost nary a difference. I would like to say that Forever Young has faced a talented horse that is most likely as talented as the Top 6 above. All be it only up to a mile. But, the race was only a mile and he won.
He is used to big fields and obviously does not like to lose, a trait that is over looked sometimes.
Other, than Muth in the Juvenile, I don’t see a Top horse that Fierceness has faced. And in my opinion, Muth wasn’t a Top horse at 2 or I should say is leaps and bounds better at 3 than 2.
A very good betting race if Fierceness is not the Super Horse he is Hyped as.
Look forward to next weeks article.
Ghostzapper himself was a late bloomer and often his progeny are as well. But Stronghold, being a January 24th foal, might just be hitting a stride of brilliance. He clearly knows how to win races, but based on his recent works of 58.4 at 5 FL and 46.8 at 4 FL, he obviously can run fast. The question obviously is how far can he take that speed, but the speed is clearly there and if I can get him at 15-1 or better in 2 Saturdays I will take that shot.
Steve, another par excellence!
Like this format, strengths and weaknesses. Very fair evaluation of each horse.
As I watch their gallops and works will be reading about each horse again.
Fierceness went out for a gallop this morning. He seems to float above the track, very little if any dirt kicked up. I think this is his race to lose by his own devices. If he brings his A game he will be hard to beat. I have always liked Fierceness.
Forever Young’s jockey here for a couple of days, will work him tomorrow. Saw a couple of photos of his jockey with him this morning. They certainly have a connection. No sign yet, at least I can see, that his traveling is catching up with him. Dale Romans is graciously giving FY a work partner.
The new paddock is very nice. Very spacious.
Just want to mention that I have your page bookmarked which took me right to your posts. When I click on it now, it takes me to some older posts firsts. Not sure if it is my tablet or the new website. Anyway I thought I would mention it.
Thanks very much, Lynda I will make sure Leonard knows about it and let you know. Looking forward to seeing Forever Young work tomorrow. Have no idea what to expect. I thought Catching Freedom looked sensational galloping this a.m.
Thank you.
Have not watched Catching Freedom yet, but plan to.
So far all the colts look very good!
Mentioned the redirect on the site thinking someone might be looking for usual post from you on Tuesday and not see it. Thanks!
He sure did
Been reading your column for years and I very much appreciate you and your time for doing this.
Happy Derby
John
Thank you John!
Another Derby Dream year is winding down and the information you provide is unmatched. Last year prior to the BC you mentioned Fierceness is a horse to be reckoned with even with the Champagne Stakes flop. I was one of the few that agreed and was rewarded race day.
I am still on his bandwagon. However, Catching Freedom checks a lot boxes and is a serious threat for the top spot. Fierceness #1, Catching Freedom 1A.
Thanks! I owe Fierceness and will stay loyal to him
I have been wondering about the grey horse working with Forever Young. Great info, Lynda! Both FY and Resilience look so good-minded and willing, it almost makes me think I could ride them! (Ha!)
Also agree about Catching Freedom. Charging around with his poll flexed and back end just driving, he looked magnificent today. Isn’t he one Brad Cox said “didn’t train well?” They’re growing up and going off to college!
Thanks for the info Lynda King.
What horseracing needs are more sporting horsemen and horsewomen like Dale Romans. He puts horse racing and the horse above all else. He idolized the Chief, H. Allen Jerkens, who felt the same way.
Sat 04 | Day
79°
35%
SSW
11
mph
Cloudy with a few showers. High 79F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
I’m all on on Honor Marie, might lay a four closers box: Honor Marie, Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom…..maybe Epic Ride, Stronghold, Encino providing pace pressure…
Imagination also Preakness bound….Frankie….
Hi Steve
It’s rather obvious that you’ve saved the last Derby Rankings as your best overall analysis to date. I’ve read it twice to make sure I didn’t miss anything, because you had a lot of information to soak up. I was delighted to read what you had to say about Catching Freedom and Resilience, my two remaining horses which I placed Futures wagers on, in Pool 3.
I believe you have the right horse listed at #1. If Fierceness draws well, and breaks cleanly, the rest of the field will be running for 2nd place, IMO. However, as we all know, things can happen in a horse race, which does not always work out for the favorite.
I’m hopeful that Resilience and Catching Freedom will give Fierceness all he can handle when they turn for home.
I’ll be looking forward to next week’s handicapping strategy.
Many thanks for the hard work you’ve put in over the past fourteen weeks, it’s much appreciated.
Thanks Bill, I tried to pack as much as I could in the final Rankings. Catcing Freedom’s gallop this moning was awesome,
He looked amazing. His coat, his physical presence, very much on the muscle and he looked like he knew it. Arching his neck and I think I heard him taunting the passer byes.
Great job, Steve – thank you!!!
I’m so glad Curtis kept the ride on Honor Marie. He may not have KY Derby experience, but he’s ridden in maybe the biggest race in the world – the Epsom Derby. I wouldn’t have felt comfortable with a new jock on HM, also.
This is the tone of year when young colts improve my leaps and bounds. I think HM will run the best race of his life on Derby day
Thanks a million, Steve, for another year of wonderfully entertaining and informative weekly Derby Rankings. I so enjoy reading these during the lead-up to the Derby. This year I’ve ended up on Sierra Leone for my Derby horse, and Honor Marie as my second choice – yes, I’m a sucker for closers. My 8 year old son, having chosen Catching Freedom in the LA Derby, isn’t jumping ship now!
Thank you very much Liz. I m so h appy to see there is someone on here young enough to have an 8-year-old. Lol
Thanks, Mr. Haskin. I’ll be referring back to this column many times right up to Derby Day.
I hope that if T O Password wins the Derby, it doesn’t start a trend with our American trainers to try the Derby off of only 2 starts. Many of them already seem to feel like less is more.
If Encino does run in the Derby, Brad C will have 3 real chances to win a Derby by getting to the line first. Same for Bill Mott, who will have 2 decent shots. Both trainers are known for having their horses ready on the big days.
Catalytic will have to make up 13 1/2 lengths on Fierceness. Grand Mo First something like 16 lengths. We’ve seen crazy things happen before. Like Fierceness blowing away the Breeders Cup Juvenile field at 16-1 off of a horrendous run in his prior race.
Will Fierceness feel like running on Derby Day? Domestic Product and Hades beat him in Florida. Which bugs me. Granted, it was a comeback race for Fierceness. A really good horse should have beaten those guys. Like I said, crazy things happen. We saw Haynesfield beat Blame before Blame beat Zenyatta in 2010. Blame beat Quality Road in the race before losing to Haynesfield and Zenyatta in the race after losing to Haynesfield. 2010???? It’s already been 13 1/2 years. Time is flying by. Faster and faster the older that I get.
Steve, you are a beast of a writer (in case you didn’t know) 🙂 I hope you have had a chance to reflect on your career so far with great satisfaction. I’m also curious if you have had any major regrets along the way. I love autobiographies and I would think yours would make for a great read, with lots of interesting stories. I know you have shared some details in the past. Hoping there’s an official autobiography one day.
Thanks so much. How about a title “The Beast From Brooklyn?”
Yes, that is perfect. I have to share this with now since I was tired of telling people that I’m wearing my favorite t-shirt, grey with a navy blue chipped away old time font that reads……. Brooklyn. My better half got it for me because she thought my best friend from college who is no longer with us, hailed from the Brooklyn. He was actually from the Bronx. Steph will be happy to know her mistake is no longer. Now I can tell people I know a guy from Brooklyn, goes by “The Beast from Brooklyn.” Lose the look pal or I’ll introduce you to him.
That’s a great title.
Fierceness looked a little underweight on his arrival video but maybe he always is? Sierra Leone looks like an absolute bull..fantastic. I love the Stronghold back story of being an orphan (I guess he probably had a nurse mare mom). Would love to see full brothers win the Derby (Dornoch). So I guess I am still pretty undecided. I’ll keep watching and see who looks the best over the next 2 weeks. I love the thorograph numbers and have learned so much from Steve. Thank you for that! Interesting article on Bloodhorse on horses finishing their last prep in under 38 seconds and winning the Derby
too…so much to consider!
Steve, this is a masterful column. You make such a strong case for so many of these horses, and in all the years you’ve been writing Derby columns, this is one of your best yet.
I for one think this Derby will be won by one of my personal top 3: Fierceness, Sierra Leone, or Forever Young. And you had me so convinced last week that Just Steel was one to watch I’m thinking of him with boxed exactas with all three of the above. After that it’s easy to go down the rabbit hole with combinations that include three-quarters of the field in various exotic bets. Which is why I only bet for fun. Someday, I would love to cash a surprisingly big bet with a small outlay. Maybe it will be this year.
Ms. Blacktype, you and I are thinking the same thing. I might do a couple of tickets with the same three horses. Best of luck. May the horse be with you.
Hi Terri:
And also with you! I just finished sorting my top picks into A, B and C categories preparatory to come up with some boxed exactas (2-3 horses in each) and supers (6 horses in each). I feel confident about my “As” — Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young — but can’t say the same for the Bs and Cs with the exception of Just Steel, who I like to hit the board no matter who wins.
I may resort to posting a dartboard with the horses in the B and C categories and throwing darts at the names wearing a blindfold.
Ms Blacktype: Laugh on line with your dart board idea. You never know with the Derby, it might just work.